Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, F.; Lall, U.; Monti, A.

2013-12-01

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is developed using a 65-years record (1948-2012) of daily rainfall amount at nineteen stations in South Florida and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds on the specific latitude of 27N (ZW27N) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM fitted is then used for predicting future rainfall patterns under global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly includes a consideration of seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can also be modeled. The results of the simulations obtained by using the downscaling model NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, seems to indicate that, as a consequence of increase of CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida should be subjected to more frequent dry conditions for the most part of the year, due mainly to a reduction of number of wet days and, at the same time, the territory should be also affected by extreme rainfall events that are more intense than the present ones. What appears from results is an increases of rainfall variability. This scenario seems coherent with the trends of rainfall patterns observed in the XX century. An investigation on the causes of such hydrologic changes, and specifically on the role of North Atlantic Subtropical High is pursued.

Weathering a Dynamic Seascape: Influences of Wind and Rain on a Seabird’s Year-Round Activity Budgets

PubMed Central

Pistorius, Pierre A.; Hindell, Mark A.; Tremblay, Yann; Rishworth, Gavin M.

2015-01-01

How animals respond to varying environmental conditions is fundamental to ecology and is a question that has gained impetus due to mounting evidence indicating negative effects of global change on biodiversity. Behavioural plasticity is one mechanism that enables individuals and species to deal with environmental changes, yet for many taxa information on behavioural parameters and their capacity to change are lacking or restricted to certain periods within the annual cycle. This is particularly true for seabirds where year-round behavioural information is intrinsically challenging to acquire due to their reliance on the marine environment where they are difficult to study. Using data from over 13,000 foraging trips throughout the annual cycle, acquired using new-generation automated VHF technology, we described sex-specific, year-round activity budgets in Cape gannets. Using these data we investigated the role of weather (wind and rain) on foraging activity and time allocated to nest attendance. Foraging activity was clearly influenced by wind speed, wind direction and rainfall during and outside the breeding season. Generally, strong wind conditions throughout the year resulted in relatively short foraging trips. Birds spent longer periods foraging when rainfall was moderate. Nest attendance, which was sex-specific outside of the breeding season, was also influenced by meteorological conditions. Large amounts of rainfall (> 2.5 mm per hour) and strong winds (> 13 m s-1) resulted in gannets spending shorter amounts of time at their nests. We discuss these findings in terms of life history strategies and implications for the use of seabirds as bio-indicators. PMID:26581108

Stable isotope ratios in rainfall and water vapour at Bangalore, Southern India during the monsoon period of 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peethambaran, Rahul; Ghosh, Prosenjit

2015-04-01

Rainwater and water vapour were collected during monsoon rainfall from Bangalore station to identifying the signature of moisture sources. Moisture responsible for the rainfall originates from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and advected to the station together with vapour generated from the local . Total no of samples includes 72 for water vapour and 81 for rainwater respectively. The mean difference between water vapour and rainwater was found to be -13.27±2.5 ‰ for δ18O, -100±9 ‰ for δD, which was calculated from monthly mean values of water vapour and rainwater. The most enriched samples of rainwater and water vapour were found during the pre monsoon months which correspond to temperature maximum at the study location. Lighter isotopic ratios were recorded in samples collected during the starting of monsoon showers which goes to further depletion in δ18O during the period of post monsoon. This was mainly due to the change in the prevailing wind direction from southwest to northeast. Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) generated for rainwater (d = 7.49 δ 18O + 5.2555, R² = 0.93) equation suggesting enrichment due to evaporation. Local Vapour Line (LVL) (d = 7.5248 δ 18O + 6.6534,R² = 0.8957) indicates the dominance of vapor from local source. The time series of d-xcess of rainwater and water vapor reveals large variability, coinciding with the presence of transported and local sources. It was observed that rainwater and water vapor exhibits higher values indicating re-evaporation from the region. Repetition of this feature demonstrated pattern of moisture recycling in the atmosphere and the contribution of continental evaporation and transpiration. The sensitivity of isotopes to the sudden change in wind direction was documented by an abrupt variations in the isotope values. Such changes in wind patterns were mostly associated with the prevalence of low pressure depression systems during the monsoon periods. Detailed analysis on role of wind patterns and air parcel trajectories, atmospheric parameters such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity and quantitative estimation of local source moisture source contributions will be discussed at the time of presentation.

Range Atmospheric and Oceanic Environmental Support Capabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

Precipitation location/intensity, thunderstorm location/intensity, rainfall/flash flood warning, hydrometer characterization, wind warnings, and...intensity, lightning monitoring, rainfall and flash flood warning, hydrometer characterization, and wind warnings. b. Satellite: MTSAT, GOES-10

Panic anxiety, under the weather?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulbena, A.; Pailhez, G.; Aceña, R.; Cunillera, J.; Rius, A.; Garcia-Ribera, C.; Gutiérrez, J.; Rojo, C.

2005-03-01

The relationship between weather conditions and psychiatric disorders has been a continuous subject of speculation due to contradictory findings. This study attempts to further clarify this relationship by focussing on specific conditions such as panic attacks and non-panic anxiety in relation to specific meteorological variables. All psychiatric emergencies attended at a general hospital in Barcelona (Spain) during 2002 with anxiety as main complaint were classified as panic or non-panic anxiety according to strict independent and retrospective criteria. Both groups were assessed and compared with meteorological data (wind speed and direction, daily rainfall, temperature, humidity and solar radiation). Seasons and weekend days were also included as independent variables. Non-parametric statistics were used throughout since most variables do not follow a normal distribution. Logistic regression models were applied to predict days with and without the clinical condition. Episodes of panic were three times more common with the poniente wind (hot wind), twice less often with rainfall, and one and a half times more common in autumn than in other seasons. These three trends (hot wind, rainfall and autumn) were accumulative for panic episodes in a logistic regression formula. Significant reduction of episodes on weekends was found only for non-panic episodes. Panic attacks, unlike other anxiety episodes, in a psychiatric emergency department in Barcelona seem to show significant meteorotropism. Assessing specific disorders instead of overall emergencies or other variables of a more general quality could shed new light on the relationship between weather conditions and behaviour.

[Impact of wind-water alternate erosion on the characteristics of sediment particles].

PubMed

Tuo, Deng-Feng; Xu, Ming-Xiang; Ma, Xin-Xin; Zheng, Shi-Qing

2014-02-01

Wind and water are the two dominant erosion agents that caused soil and water losses in the wind-water alternate erosion region on the Loess Plateau. It is meaningful to study the impact of wind-water alternate erosion on the characteristics of soil particles for understanding the response of soil quality and environment to erosion. Through wind tunnel combined rainfall simulation, this paper studied the characteristics of the erosive sediment particles under the effect of wind-water alternate erosion. The results showed that the particles of 0-1 cm soil were coarsened by wind erosion at the wind speeds of 11 and 14 m x s(-1) compared with no wind erosion. Soil fine particles (< 0.01 mm) decreased by 9.8%-10.8%, and coarse particles (> 0.05 mm) increased by 16.8%-20.8%. The physical property of surface soil was changed by the wind erosion, which, in turn, caused an increase in finer particles content in the sediment. Compared with no wind erosion, fine particles (< 0.01 mm) in sediment under the water-wind alternate erosion increased by 2.7%-18.9% , and coarse particles (> 0.05 mm) decreased by 3.7%-9.3%. However, the changing trend of erosive sediment particles after the wind erosion at wind speeds of 11 and 14 m x s(-1) was different along with the rainfall intensity and duration. The erosive sediment particles at the rainfall intensities of 60, 80, 100 mm x h(-1) changed to greater extents than at the 150 mm x h(-1) rainfall intensity with longer than 15 min runoff flowing.

Effects of trade-wind strength and direction on the leeside circulations and rainfall of the island of Hawaii

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Yi-Leng Chen; Francis M. Fujioka

2009-01-01

The leeside circulations and weather of the island of Hawaii were studied from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) land surface model simulations for eight strong (∼7.9 m s−1) and eight weak (∼5.2 m s−1) trade-wind days and for five days with southeasterly trades (∼7.1 m s

North Pacific Westerly Jet Influence of the Winter Hawaii Rainfall in the last 21,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.

2017-12-01

Hawaii rainfall has a strong seasonality which has more rainfall during the winter than summer. Part of the winter rainfall is from extratropical weather disturbances. Kona lows (KL) are important contributors to the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. KL activity is found to have a strong relationship with the North Pacific climate variability. The goal of the research is to test the hypothesis that changes in the strength and position of the upper level zonal wind jet is a key driver for regional rainfall changes. The main objectives are (1) to identify the relationship between North Pacific westerly jet strength and KL activity in present day climate, (2) to test the stability of this relationship under past climatic conditions, and (3) to explore the teleconnection between Hawaii and North America. For the present-day analysis of the westerly jet, the zonal wind at 250hPa is used from ERA-interim data from 1979-2014. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For the paleoclimatic study, the transient TraCE-21ka simulation is used for the zonal wind - Hawaii rainfall analysis. The results of present-day analysis show that when the jet extends farther into the eastern Pacific sector the Kona Low activity is reduced, less winter rainfall is observed over Hawaii and more rainfall over the California region. The jet position-rainfall relationship was investigated within the TrACE-21 simulation. For the TraCE-21ka dataset, there is an increasing rainfall trend from 21kBP to 14kBP; this period coincides with a gradual decrease in the strength of the westerly wind jet. The results show that the westerly jet strength has a strong influence of the Kona Low activity and the rainfall over Hawaii both in the present and the past.

Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin

2017-12-01

Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

Organization of vertical shear of wind and daily variability of monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouda, K. C.; Goswami, P.

2016-10-01

Very little is known about the mechanisms that govern the day to day variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall; in the current dominant view, the daily rainfall is essentially a result of chaotic dynamics. Most studies in the past have thus considered monsoon in terms of its seasonal (June-September) or monthly rainfall. We show here that the daily rainfall in June is associated with vertical shear of horizontal winds at specific scales. While vertical shear had been used in the past to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall, rarely any effort has been made to examine daily rainfall. Our work shows that, at least during June, the daily rainfall variability of ISM rainfall is associated with a large scale dynamical coherence in the sense that the vertical shear averaged over large spatial extents are significantly correlated with area-averaged daily rainfall. An important finding from our work is the existence of a clearly delineated monsoon shear domain (MSD) with strong coherence between area-averaged shear and area-averaged daily rainfall in June; this association of daily rainfall is not significant with shear over only MSD. Another important feature is that the association between daily rainfall and vertical shear is present only during the month of June. Thus while ISM (June-September) is a single seasonal system, it is important to consider the dynamics and variation of June independently of the seasonal ISM rainfall. The association between large-scale organization of circulation and daily rainfall is suggested as a basis for attempting prediction of daily rainfall by ensuring accurate simulation of wind shear.

Biophysical response of dryland soils to rainfall: implications for wind erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullard, J. E.; Strong, C. L.; Aubault, H.

2016-12-01

Dryland soils can be highly susceptible to wind erosion due to low vegetation cover. The formation of physical and biological soil crusts between vascular plants can exert some control on the soil surface erodibility. The development of these crusts is highly dependent on rainfall which causes sediment compaction and aggregate breakdown, and triggers photosynthetic activity and an increase soil organic matter within biological soil crusts. Using controlled field experiments, this study tests how biological soil crusts in different dryland geomorphic settings respond to various rainfall amounts (0, 5 or 10 mm) and how this in turn affects the resistance of soils to wind erosion. Results show that 10 mm of rainfall triggers more intense photosynthetic activity (high fluorescence) and a greater increase in extracellular polysaccharide content in biological crusts than 5 mm of rainfall but that the duration of photosynthetic activity is comparable for both quantities of rain. These biological responses have little impact on surface resistance, but results show that soils are more susceptible to wind erosion after rainfall events than in their initial dry state. This unexpected result could be explained by the detachment of surface sediments by raindrop impact and overland flow. The study highlights the complexity of soil erodibility at small scale which is driven by rain, wind and crust, and a necessity to understand how the spatial heterogeneity of crust and their ecophysiology alters small scale processes.

Remote rainfall sensing for landslide hazard analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; McWreath, Harry; Davenport, Clay

2001-01-01

Methods of assessing landslide hazards and providing warnings are becoming more advanced as remote sensing of rainfall provides more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Two recent landslide disasters are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. For the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia, USA, National Weather Service WSR-88D Doppler radar provided rainfall estimates based on a relation between cloud reflectivity and moisture content on a 1 sq. km. resolution every 6 minutes. Ground-based measurements of rainfall intensity and precipitation total, in addition to landslide timing and distribution, were compared with the radar-derived rainfall data. For the December 14-16, 1999, storm in Vargas State, Venezuela, infrared sensing from the GOES-8 satellite of cloud top temperatures provided the basis for NOAA/NESDIS rainfall estimates on a 16 sq. km. resolution every 30 minutes. These rainfall estimates were also compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and landslide distribution. In both examples, the remotely sensed data either overestimated or underestimated ground-based values by up to a factor of 2. The factors that influenced the accuracy of rainfall data include spatial registration and map projection, as well as prevailing wind direction, cloud orientation, and topography.

Isotopic composition of waters from Ethiopia and Kenya: Insights into moisture sources for eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Naomi E.; Zipser, Edward J.; Cerling, Thure E.

2009-12-01

Oxygen and deuterium isotopic values of meteoric waters from Ethiopia are unusually high when compared to waters from other high-elevation settings in Africa and worldwide. These high values are well documented; however, the climatic processes responsible for the isotopic anomalies in Ethiopian waters have not been thoroughly investigated. We use isotopic data from waters and remote data products to demonstrate how different moisture sources affect the distribution of stable isotopes in waters from eastern Africa. Oxygen and deuterium stable isotopic data from 349 surface and near-surface groundwaters indicate isotopic distinctions between waters in Ethiopia and Kenya and confirm the anomalous nature of Ethiopian waters. Remote data products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project show strong westerly and southwesterly components to low-level winds during precipitation events in western and central Ethiopia. This is in contrast to the easterly and southeasterly winds that bring rainfall to Kenya and southeastern Ethiopia. Large regions of high equivalent potential temperatures (θe) at low levels over the Sudd and the Congo Basin demonstrate the potential for these areas as sources of moisture and convective instability. The combination of wind direction data from Ethiopia and θe distribution in Africa indicates that transpired moisture from the Sudd and the Congo Basin is likely responsible for the high isotopic values of rainfall in Ethiopia.

The extent of wind-induced undercatch in the UK winter storms of 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollock, Michael; Colli, Matteo; Stagnaro, Mattia; Quinn, Paul; Dutton, Mark; O'Donnell, Greg; Wilkinson, Mark; Black, Andrew; O'Connell, Enda; Lanza, Luca

2016-04-01

The most widely used device for measuring rainfall is the rain gauge, of which the tipping bucket (TBR) is the most prevalent type. Rain gauges are considered by many to be the most accurate method currently available. The data they produce are used in flood-forecasting and flood risk management, water resource management, hydrological modelling and evaluating impacts on climate change; to name but a few. Rain gauges may provide the most accurate measurement of rainfall at a point in space and time, but they are subject to errors - and some gauges are more prone than others. The most significant error is the 'wind-induced undercatch'. This is caused by the gauge itself contributing to an acceleration of the wind speed near the orifice, which disturbs and distorts the airflow. The trajectories of precipitation particles are affected, resulting in an undercatch. Results from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, presented herein, describe in detail the physical processes contributing to this. High resolution field measurements of rainfall and wind are collected at four field research stations in the UK. Each site is equipped with juxtaposed rain gauges with different funnel profiles, in addition to a WMO reference pit rain gauge measurement. These data describe the rainfall measurement uncertainty. The sites were selected to represent the prevalent rainfall regimes observed in the UK. Two research stations are on the west coast; which is prone to frontal weather systems and storms swept in from the Atlantic, often enhanced by orography. Two are located in the east. Rural lowland and upland areas are represented, both in the west and the east. Urban sites will also have significant undercatch problems but are outside the scope of this study. Data from the four research stations are analysed for the 2015 winter storms which caused devastating flooding in the west of the UK, particularly Cumbria and the Scottish Borders, where two of the sites are located. An assessment of the effect of wind on the rainfall catch during these large storm events is presented for each research station. Based on a reference pit rain gauge, the undercatch for these events is calculated. The difference in rainfall catch between several types of rain gauge mounted at variable heights is also investigated. This work aims to demonstrate the importance of improving the accuracy of rainfall measurements, and to emphasise the need to provide an assessment of the measurement uncertainty. A knowledge gap exists in the understanding of precisely how physical phenomena are contributing to wind-induced undercatch. For instance, a priori, the effect of the wind on the rainfall catch will change depending upon the dimensions of the rain droplets. Rainfall 'type' and rainfall intensity may be able to inform corrections, but rigorous multi-variate statistical analysis of high resolution measurements will be key to the success of these procedures. As the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall can be highly variable, and each measurement location is different; it is a challenging undertaking to understand and pin down the fundamental processes responsible for the wind-induced undercatch.

Wind erodibility response of physical and biological crusts to rain and flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubault, H.; Bullard, J. E.; Strong, C. L.; Ghadiri, H.; McTainsh, G. H.

2015-12-01

Soil surface crusts are important controllers of the small-scale wind entrainment processes that occur across all dust source regions globally. The crust type influences water and wind erosion by impacting infiltration, runoff, threshold wind velocity and surface storage capacity of both water and loose erodible material. The spatial and temporal patterning of both physical and biological crusts is known to change with rainfall and flooding. However, little is known about the impact of differing water quantity (from light rainfall through to flooding) on soil crusting characteristics (strength, roughness, sediment loss). This study compares the response of two soil types (loamy sand - LS, sandy loam - SL) with and without BSCs to three different rainfall events (2mm, 8mm, 15mm). Two BSC treatments were used one that simulated a young cyanobacteria dominated crust and an older flood induced multi species biological crust. For both soil types, soil surface strength increased with increasing rainfall amount with LS having consistently higher resistance to rupture than SL. Regardless of texture, soils with BSCs were more resistant and strength did not change in response to rainfall impact. Soil loss due to wind erosion was substantially higher on bare LS (4 times higher) and SL (3 times higher) soils compared with those with BSCs. Our results also show that young biological crust (formed by the rainfall event) have reduced soil erodibility with notably greater strength, roughness and reduced sediment losses when compared to soils with physical crust. Interestingly though, the erodibility of the old BSC did not differ greatly from that of the young BSC with respect to strength, roughness and sediment loss. This raises questions regarding the rapid soil surface protection offered by young colonising cyanobacteria crusts. Further analyses exploring the role of biological soil crusts on surface response to rainfall and wind saltation impact are ongoing.

Summer Leeside Rainfall Maxima over the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. F.; Chen, Y. L.

2016-12-01

The Kona area on the leeside in the island of Hawaii has distinctive summer rainfall maxima. The primary physical processes for the summer rainfall maxima in Kona are analyzed by comparing it with the winter rainfall. The annual and diurnal cycles there are investigated by employing the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model coupled with the advanced land surface model from June 2004 and February 2010. During the summer, the nocturnal rainfall maximum adjacent to the Kona coast is larger than in winter because of the stronger, moister westerly reversed flow and offshore flow in summer. Comparisons between winter trade-wind days and winter mean show that the leeside Kona rainfall offshore in winter mainly occurs under trade-wind conditions. Moreover, the model results also attest to the impact of moisture content on the Kona leeside rainfall offshore. Comparisons between winter and summer trade-wind days indicate that upslope flows on the Kona slopes are stronger and the moisture content from the westerly reversed flow is higher in summer than in winter. The rainfall maximum on the lower Kona slopes is more pronounced in summer than in winter as a result of enhanced orographic lifting due to stronger upslope flow in the afternoon hours and the moister westerly reversed flow offshore, which merges with the upslope flow inland.

Two Perspectives on Keith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Tropical storm Keith was born on Sept. 29 in the Caribbean, off the east coast of Honduras, and reached hurricane Category 3 intensity (winds in excess of 111 miles per hour) on Oct. 1. Hurricane Keith made landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and northeastern Belize on Oct. 2, packing winds as high as 135 miles per hour and a storm surge of up to 6 feet above normal tide levels. Although the storm quickly weakened in intensity to a tropical storm (65 miles per hour), it moved slowly inland and dumped large amounts of rain on the region--exceeding 15 inches in some areas within a 24-hour period. Authorities in the area are warning residents of the potential for flooding and mudslides. NASA and NOAA satellites captured images of Hurricane Keith on Oct. 2 shortly after it made landfall. The image on the left is a combination of NOAA GOES and NASA QuikScat data superimposed. The white cloud structure was produced using GOES data, while the colored arrows showing wind speed and direction were created using QuikScat data. Red and purple arrows show winds as high as 25 meters per second (56 miles per hour). (Note that QuikScat only measures winds over the ocean; units are given in meters per second.) The image on the right was created using data from the Microwave Imager (TMI) aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). That sensor has the ability to peer within a storm and detect rainfall, seen here as red and green blobs. The red blobs show higher rainfall rates (up to 2 inches per hour), and greens show lower rainfall rates (1 inch per hour). Scientists are using data from these sensors to study how hurricane form, and grow and diminish in intensity during their lifetimes. For more information, see Hurricanes: The Greatest Storms on Earth. QuikScat image by William Daffer, courtesy of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory TRMM image by Tom Bridgman, Goddard SVS; data courtesy TRMM Science Team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Merging weather data with materials response data during outdoor exposure

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Anand Sanadi; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2002-01-01

As part of an outdoor exposure protocol for a study of sealants, a full weather station was installed at the Forest Products Laboratory field test site near Madison, Wisconsin. Tem-perature, relative humidity, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 different wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are continuously measured. Using a specially designed apparatus,...

Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

2018-04-01

Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

Elements of a predictive model for determining beach closures on a real time basis: the case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olyphant, Greg A.; Whitman, Richard L.

2004-01-01

Data on hydrometeorological conditions and E. coli concentration were simultaneously collected on 57 occasions during the summer of 2000 at 63rd Street Beach, Chicago, Illinois. The data were used to identify and calibrate a statistical regression model aimed at predicting when the bacterial concentration of the beach water was above or below the level considered safe for full body contact. A wide range of hydrological, meteorological, and water quality variables were evaluated as possible predictive variables. These included wind speed and direction, incoming solar radiation (insolation), various time frames of rainfall, air temperature, lake stage and wave height, and water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity. The best-fit model combined real-time measurements of wind direction and speed (onshore component of resultant wind vector), rainfall, insolation, lake stage, water temperature and turbidity to predict the geometric mean E.coliconcentration in the swimming zone of the beach. The model, which contained both additive and multiplicative (interaction) terms, accounted for 71% of the observed variability in the log E. coliconcentrations. A comparison between model predictions of when the beach should be closed and when the actualbacterial concentrations were above or below the 235 cfu 100 ml-1 threshold value, indicated that the model accurately predicted openingsversus closures 88% of the time.

Geophysical Factor Resolving of Rainfall Mechanism for Super Typhoons by Using Multiple Spatiotemporal Components Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2016-04-01

This study develops a novel methodology to resolve the geophysical cause of typhoon-induced rainfall considering diverse dynamic co-evolution at multiple spatiotemporal components. The multi-order hidden patterns of complex hydrological process in chaos are detected to understand the fundamental laws of rainfall mechanism. The discovered spatiotemporal features are utilized to develop a state-of-the-art descriptive statistical model for mechanism validation, modeling and further prediction during typhoons. The time series of hourly typhoon precipitation from different types of moving track, atmospheric field and landforms are respectively precede the signal analytical process to qualify each type of rainfall cause and to quantify the corresponding affected degree based on the measured geophysical atmospheric-hydrological variables. This study applies the developed methodology in Taiwan Island which is constituted by complex diverse landform formation. The identified driving-causes include: (1) cloud height to ground surface; (2) co-movement effect induced by typhoon wind field with monsoon; (3) stem capacity; (4) interaction between typhoon rain band and terrain; (5) structural intensity variance of typhoon; and (6) integrated cloudy density of rain band. Results show that: (1) for the central maximum wind speed exceeding 51 m/sec, Causes (1) and (3) are the primary ones to generate rainfall; (2) for the typhoon moving toward the direction of 155° to 175°, Cause (2) is the primary one; (3) for the direction of 90° to 155°, Cause (4) is the primary one; (4) for the typhoon passing through mountain chain which above 3500 m, Cause (5) is the primary one; and (5) for the moving speed lower than 18 km/hr, Cause (6) is the primary one. Besides, the multiple geophysical component-based precipitation modeling can achieve 81% of average accuracy and 0.732 of average correlation coefficient (CC) within average 46 hours of duration, that improve their predictability.

How is rainfall interception in urban area affected by meteorological parameters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabret, Katarina; Rakovec, Jože; Mikoš, Matjaž; Šraj, Mojca

2017-04-01

Rainfall interception is part of the hydrological cycle. Precipitation, which hits vegetation, is retained on the leaves and branches, from which it eventually evaporates into the atmosphere (interception) or reaches the ground by dripping from the canopy, falling through the gaps (throughfall) and running down the stems (stemflow). The amount of rainfall reaching the ground depends on various meteorological and vegetation parameters. Rainfall, throughfall and stemflow have been measured in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia since the beginning of 2014. Manual and automatic measurements are performed regularly under Betula pendula and Pinus nigra trees in urban area. In 2014, there were detected 178 rainfall events with total amount of 1672.1 mm. In average B. pendula intercepted 44% of rainfall and P. nigra intercepted 72% of rainfall. In 2015 we have detected 117 events with 1047.4 mm of rainfall, of which 37% was intercepted by B. pendula and 60% by P. nigra. The effect of various meteorological parameters on the rainfall interception was analysed in the study. The parameters included in the analysis were rainfall rate, rainfall duration, drop size distribution (average drop velocity and diameter), average wind speed, and average temperature. The results demonstrate decreasing rainfall interception with longer rainfall duration and higher rainfall intensity although the impact of the latter one is not statistically significant. In the case of very fast or very slow rainfall drops, the interception is higher than for the mean rain drop velocity values. In the case of P. nigra the impact of the rain drop diameter on interception is similar to the one of rain drop velocity while for B. pendula increasing of drop diameter also increases the interception. As expected, interception is higher for warmer events. This trend is more evident for P. nigra than for B. pendula. Furthermore, the amount of intercepted rainfall also increases with wind although it could be relatively high in case of very low wind speeds.

Trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during northeast and southwest monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chooi Tan, Kok

2018-04-01

The trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia is mainly affected by the seasonal monsoon. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of northeast and southwest monsoons on the monthly rainfall patterns over Badenoch Estate, Kedah. In addition, the synoptic maps of wind vector also being developed to identify the wind pattern over Peninsular Malaysia from 2007 – 2016. On the other hand, the archived daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department. The temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area have been analysed from 2007 to 2016. Overall, the average annual precipitation over the study area from 2007 to 2016 recorded by rain gauge is 2562.35 mm per year.

The Fogging Method with Variable of Nozle Diameter as the Mitigation Alternative for Spreading the Dust of Cement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purwanta, J.; Marnoto, T.; Setyono, P.; Ramelan, A. H.

2018-03-01

The cement plant impacts on the lives of people around the factory site, one of them on the air quality, especially dust. Cement plant has made various efforts to mitigate dust generated, but the reality on the ground is still a lot of dust flying around either of the cement factory chimneys and transportation. The purpose of this study was to find the optimum condition of nozle diameter from the cement dust catcher, for mitigation the dust spread to around the cement plant. This study uses research methods such as collecting secondary data which includes data intensity rainfall, the average long rains, wind speed and direction as well as data quality monitoring dust around PT. Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk. Tuban plant. To determine the wind direction propensity models, use a soft Windrose file. To determine the impact on the spread of dust into the environment using secondary data monitoring air quality. Results of the study is that the mitigation of dust around the cement plant is influenced by natural factors, namely the tendency of wind direction, rainfall and rainy days, and the rate of dust emission from the chimney. I try for operate the cement dust catcher with variable of nozle diameter. Finally, I find the optimum condition of nozle diameter for cement dust catcher is 1.40 mm, with line equation is y = 149.09.e 1.6237.x and error 5%. In that condition, nozle can make the fog with a good quality and it can catch the cement dust well.

Diagnostics of Rainfall Anomalies in the Nordeste During the Global Weather Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikdar, D. M.

1984-01-01

The relationship of the daily variability of large-scale pressure, cloudiness and upper level wind patterns over the Brazil-Atlantic sector during March/April 1979 to rainfall anomalies in northern Nordeste was investigated. The experiment divides the rainy season (March/April) of 1979 into wet and dry days, then composites bright cloudiness, sea level pressure, and upper level wind fields with respect to persistent rainfall episodes. Wet and dry anomalies are analyzed along with seasonal mean conditions.

Complexity confers stability: Climate variability, vegetation response and sand transport on longitudinal sand dunes in Australia's deserts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesse, Paul P.; Telfer, Matt W.; Farebrother, Will

2017-04-01

The relationship between antecedent precipitation, vegetation cover and sand movement on sand dunes in the Simpson and Strzelecki Deserts was investigated by repeated (up to four) surveys of dune crest plots (≈25 × 25 m) over a drought cycle (2002-2012) in both winter (low wind) and spring (high wind). Vegetation varied dramatically between surveys on vegetated and active dune crests. Indices of sand movement had significant correlations with vegetation cover: the depth of loose sand has a strong inverse relationship with crust (cyanobacterial and/or physical) while the area covered by ripples has a strong inverse relationship with the areal cover of vascular plants. However, the relationship between antecedent rainfall and vegetation cover was found to be complex. We tentatively identify two thresholds; (1) >10 mm of rainfall in the preceding 90 days leads to rapid and near total cover of crust and/or small plants <50 cm tall, and (2) >400 mm of rainfall in the preceding three years leads to higher cover of persistent and longer-lived plants >50 cm tall. These thresholds were used to predict days of low vegetation cover on dune crests. The combination of seasonality of predicted bare-crest days, potential sand drift and resultant sand drift direction explains observed patterns of sand drift on these dunes. The complex vegetation and highly variable rainfall regime confer meta-stability on the dunes through the range of responses to different intervals of antecedent rainfall and non-linear growth responses. This suggests that the geomorphic response of dunes to climate variation is complex and non-linear.

Erodibility of waste (Loess) soils from construction sites under water and wind erosional forces.

PubMed

Tanner, Smadar; Katra, Itzhak; Argaman, Eli; Ben-Hur, Meni

2018-03-01

Excess soils from construction sites (waste soils) become a problem when exposed to soil erosion by water or wind. Understanding waste soil erodibility can contribute to its proper reuse for various surface applications. The general objective of the study was to provide a better understanding of the effects of soil properties on erodibility of waste soils excavated from various depths in a semiarid region under rainfall and wind erosive forces. Soil samples excavated from the topsoil (0-0.3m) and subsoil layers (0.3-0.9 and >1m depths) were subjected to simulated rainfall and wind. Under rainfall erosive forces, the subsoils were more erodible than the topsoil, in contrast to the results obtained under wind erosive forces. Exchangeable sodium percentage was the main factor controlling soil erodibility (K i ) under rainfall, and a significant logarithmic regression line was found between these two parameters. In addition, a significant, linear regression was found between K i and slaking values for the studied soil samples, suggesting that the former can be predicted from the latter. Soil erodibility under wind erosion force was controlled mainly by the dry aggregate characteristics (mean weight diameter and aggregate density): their higher values in the subsoil layers resulted in lower soil erodibility compared to the topsoil. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A sound budget for the southeastern Bering Sea: measuring wind, rainfall, shipping, and other sources of underwater sound.

PubMed

Nystuen, Jeffrey A; Moore, Sue E; Stabeno, Phyllis J

2010-07-01

Ambient sound in the ocean contains quantifiable information about the marine environment. A passive aquatic listener (PAL) was deployed at a long-term mooring site in the southeastern Bering Sea from 27 April through 28 September 2004. This was a chain mooring with lots of clanking. However, the sampling strategy of the PAL filtered through this noise and allowed the background sound field to be quantified for natural signals. Distinctive signals include the sound from wind, drizzle and rain. These sources dominate the sound budget and their intensity can be used to quantify wind speed and rainfall rate. The wind speed measurement has an accuracy of +/-0.4 m s(-1) when compared to a buoy-mounted anemometer. The rainfall rate measurement is consistent with a land-based measurement in the Aleutian chain at Cold Bay, AK (170 km south of the mooring location). Other identifiable sounds include ships and short transient tones. The PAL was designed to reject transients in the range important for quantification of wind speed and rainfall, but serendipitously recorded peaks in the sound spectrum between 200 Hz and 3 kHz. Some of these tones are consistent with whale calls, but most are apparently associated with mooring self-noise.

Possible influence of Asian polar vertex contraction on rainfall deficits in China in autumn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xian; Wei, Zhigang; Dong, Wenjie; Li, Zhenchao; Zheng, Zhiyuan; Chen, Chen; Chen, Guangyu; Liu, Yajing

2018-06-01

The mechanisms governing variations in autumn precipitation are complicated and influenced by a number factors. This paper analyses the characteristics of autumn precipitation in China and investigates the influence of Asian polar vertex contraction on rainfall deficits in China and relevant mechanisms. Autumn precipitation decreased significantly from 1961 to 2012 in mid- and southern China, and the area of the Asia polar vortex (AAV) has decreased significantly since 1988. Asian polar vertex contraction is found to be an important factor in these autumn rainfall deficits in China through the following mechanism. Asian polar vertex contraction causes anomalously high geopotential heights in East Asia (from 25°N to 55°N) and low heights north of 65°N in the upper and lower troposphere, weakening meridional gradients in geopotential height. In the upper troposphere, the westerly and northerly winds are strengthened over high latitudes and westerly winds and the subtropical westerly jet are weakened over the East Asian mid-latitudes. In the lower troposphere, westerly winds are strengthened over high latitudes, westerly winds are weakened in East Asia and along the southern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau, and northerly winds in mid- and southern China are clearly strengthened. Hence, autumn rainfall decreases in mid- and southern China.

Two simple models for accounting mussel contamination with diarrhoetic shellfish poisoning toxins at Aveiro lagoon: Control by rainfall and atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vale, Paulo

2012-02-01

At Aveiro lagoon (Portuguese northwest coast) bivalve contamination with diarrhoetic shellfish poisoning toxins (DSTs), okadaic acid (OA) and dinophysistoxin-2 (DTX2), is a recurrent annual phenomenon seriously affecting seafood safety. The influence of meteorological parameters was studied to understand accumulation of DSTs in mussels, related to the blooming of the causative toxic microalgae, belonging to genus Dinophysis. Two simplified models were useful in predicting the accumulation of DSTs in blue mussels from this lagoon. Either the May river drainage or the rainfall accumulated from January through May could adequately predict the severity of OA accumulated from predation upon Dinophysis acuminata during June/July. In both cases a linear relationship was obtained, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 or greater. Winds with a west direction favour coastal concentration of Dinophysis acuta in Aveiro region. Both OA and DTX2 contamination increased exponentially in September/October with the cumulative number of days with W-wind orientation in the preceding August (correlation coefficients greater than 0.92). This relationship was attributed to the quadratic effect of wind stress on surface currents. August is a transitional month, when the continental runoff effect upon Dinophysis acuminata can still be observed and Dinophysis acuta advection may be promoted by westerly winds occurring in July. The frequency of periods with northerly winds in July can halt accumulation of toxins derived from Dinophysis acuta.

Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2005-01-01

To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

NFLUX PRE: Validation of New Specific Humidity, Surface Air Temperature, and Wind Speed Algorithms for Ascending/Descending Directions and Clear or Cloudy Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-18

providing all three surface state variables: TA, QA, and U10. It flies as part of the “A-Train” afternoon constellation (see http://atrain.nasa.gov...Chao (2006). Rainfall Estimation of Mesoscale Convective Systems using AMSU-A data during the Mei-Yu Season . Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 17, 91-109

Provisionally corrected surface wind data, worldwide ocean-atmosphere surface fields, and Sahelian rainfall variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ward, M.N.

Worldwide ship datasets of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and surface vector wind are analyzed for a July-September composite of five Sahelian wet years (1950, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1958) minus five Sahelian dry years (1972, 1973, 1982, 1983, 1984) (W - D). The results are compared with fields for a number of individual years and for 1988 minus 1987 (88 - 87); Sahelian rainfall in 1988 was near the 1951-80 normal, whereas 1987 was very dry. An extensive study of the geostrophic consistency of trends in pressure gradients and observed wind was undertaken. The results suggest, duringmore » the period 1949-88, a mean increase in reported wind speed of about 16% that cannot be explained by trends in geostrophic winds derived from seasonal mean SLP. Estimates of the wind bias are averaged for 18 ocean regions. A map of correlations between Sahelian rainfall and SLP in all available ocean regions is shown to be field significant. Remote atmospheric associations with Sahelian rainfall are consistent with recent suggestions that SST forcing from the tropical Atlantic and the other ocean basins may contribute to variability in seasonal Sahelian rainfall. It is suggested that wetter years in the Sahel are often accompanied by a stronger surface monsoonal flow over the western Indian Ocean and low SLP in the tropical western Pacific near New Guinea, and that there is increased cyclonicity over the extratropical eastern North Atlantic and northwest Europe. In the tropical Atlantic, W - D shows many of the features identified by previous authors. However, the 88-87 fields do not reflect these large-scale tropical Atlantic changes. Instead there is only local strengthening of the pressure gradient and wind flow from Brazil to Senegal. Further individual years are presented (1958, 1972, 1975) to provide specific examples.« less

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) - What Have We Learned and What Does the Future Hold?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kummerow, C.; Hong, Y.; Olsen, W. S.

2000-01-01

Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Soil Moisture over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liess, S.

2016-12-01

A simulation of a series of three strong typhoons (Frankie, Gloria, and Herb) during the 1996 typhoon season shows that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is representing the general characteristics of each typhoon, including sharp right turns by Gloria and Herb over the Philippine Sea. These sharp right turns can be attributed to tropical easterly waves and they are responsible for landfall over Taiwan, instead of following the general direction toward the Philippines. A second simulation where the typhoon signal is removed before landfall over East Asia shows that both rainfall and soil moisture is increased by up to 30% in coastal regions after landfall, mostly to the north of the landfall region. However, despite the noisier signal in rainfall, significant increases in soil moisture related to the paths of the simulated typhoons occur as far west as western China and Myanmar. Strong winds associated with the typhoons can also increase local evaporation and thus locally reduce soil moisture, especially south of the landfall region. Detailed observations of hydrologic variables such as soil moisture are needed to evaluate these model studies not only over coastal regions but also further inland where typhoon signals are weaker but local moisture availability is still influenced by increased rainfall and stronger winds.

Air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction in the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

2013-01-01

This report provides air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction data collected on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior's climate monitoring array, part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost. In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality control methodology. This array of 16 monitoring stations spans 68.5°N to 70.5°N and 142.5°W to 161°W, an area of roughly 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with provisional quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes several additional climate variables to be released in subsequent reports, including ground temperature and soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Comparison of wind tunnel and field experiments to measure potential deposition of fenpropimorph following volatilisation from treated crops.

PubMed

Hassink, Jan; Platz, Klaus; Stadler, Reinhold; Zangmeister, Werner; Fent, Gunnar; Möndel, Martin; Kubiak, Roland

2007-02-01

The potential for short-range transport via air, i.e. volatilisation from the area of application and subsequent deposition on adjacent non-target areas, was investigated for the fungicide fenpropimorph in a wind tunnel system and under outdoor conditions in a higher-tier field study. Fenpropimorph 750 g L(-1) EC was applied post-emergence to cereal along with a reference standard lindane EC. Stainless steel containers of water were placed at different distances downwind of the application area to trap volatile residues during a study period of 24 h following application. Meteorological conditions in the wind tunnel as well as on the field were constantly monitored during the study period. The wind tunnel system was a partly standardised system on a semi-field scale, i.e. wind direction and wind speed (2 m s(-1)) were constant, but temperature and humidity varied according to the conditions outside. In the field experiment, the average wind speed over the 24 h study period was 3 m s(-1) and no rainfall occurred. Three different measuring lines were installed on the non-target area beside the treated field to cover potential variations in the wind direction. However, no significant differences were observed since the wind direction was generally constant. Fenpropimorph was detected in minor amounts of 0.01-0.05% of the applied material in the wind tunnel experiment. Even at a distance of 1 m beside the treated field, no significant deposition occurred (0.04% of applied material after 24 h). In the field, less than 0.1% of the applied fenpropimorph was detected at 0 m directly beside the treated field. At 5 m distance the deposition values were below 0.04%, and at 20 m distance about 0.01%. In general, the amounts of deposited fenpropimorph detected in the partly standardised wind tunnel system and the higher-tier field study were in good agreement.

The Influence of Soil Moisture and Wind on Rainfall Distribution and Intensity in Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, R. David; Lynn, Barry H.; Boone, Aaron; Tao, Wei-Kuo

1998-01-01

Land surface processes play a key role in water and energy budgets of the hydrological cycle. For example, the distribution of soil moisture will affect sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn may dramatically influence the location and intensity of precipitation. However, mean wind conditions also strongly influence the distribution of precipitation. The relative importance of soil moisture and wind on rainfall location and intensity remains uncertain. Here, we examine the influence of soil moisture distribution and wind distribution on precipitation in the Florida peninsula using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model Coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data collected on 27 July 1991 in central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). The idealized numerical experiments consider a block of land (the Florida peninsula) bordered on the east and on the west by ocean. The initial soil moisture distribution is derived from an offline PLACE simulation, and the initial environmental wind profile is determined from the CaPE sounding network. Using the factor separation technique, the precise contribution of soil moisture and wind to rainfall distribution and intensity is determined.

Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach.

PubMed

Boers, N; Bookhagen, B; Barbosa, H M J; Marwan, N; Kurths, J; Marengo, J A

2014-10-14

Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes of South America. These events are spatially extensive and often result in substantial natural hazards for population, economy and ecology. Here we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by introducing the concept of network divergence on directed networks derived from a non-linear synchronization measure. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and predict more than 60% (90% during El Niño conditions) of rainfall events above the 99th percentile in the Central Andes. In addition to the societal benefits of predicting natural hazards, our study reveals a linkage between polar and tropical regimes as the responsible mechanism: the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics.

Not Out of Control: Analysis of the Federal Disaster Spending Trend

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

included heavy rain, excessive rainfall, tropical storms, hurricanes, flooding, coastal flooding, wind, straight line winds, high winds, tornadoes ...straight line winds, tornadoes , high winds, coastal flooding, soil saturation, and mud flow.174 Despite the high number of severe storm declarations over

Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model. Part 1; Specific Features and Budget Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

The Relationship Between Monthdisease Incidence Rate and Climatic Factor of Classical Swine Fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongbin; Xu, Danning; Xiao, Jianhua; Zhang, Ru; Dong, Jing

The Swine Fever is a kind of acute, highly infective epidemic disease of animals; it is name as Classical Swine Fever (CSF) by World animal Health organization. Meteorological factors such as temperature, air pressure and rainfall affect the epidemic of CSF significantly through intermediary agent and CSF viral directly. However there is significant difference among different region for mode of effects. Accordingly, the analyze must adopt different methods. The dependability between incidence rate each month of CSF and meteorological factors from 1999 to 2004 was analyzed in this paper. The function of meteorological factors on CSF was explored and internal law was expected to be discovered. The correlation between the incidence rate of Swine Fever and meteorological factors, thus the foundation analysis of the early warning and the decision-making was made, the result indicated that the incidence rate of CSF has negative correlation with temperature, rainfall, cloudage; relative humidity has positive correlation with disease; for air pressure, except average air pressure of one month, other air pressure factors have positive correlation with disease; for wind speed, except Difference among moths of wind speed and average temperature of one month. have positive correlation with disease, other wind speed factors has negative correlation with disease.

Effects of Weather, Time, and Pollution Level on the Amount of Particulate Matter Deposited on Leaves of Ligustrum lucidum

PubMed Central

Wang, Huixia; Shi, Hui; Wang, Yanhui

2015-01-01

This paper investigated the spatial and temporal variations in the amounts of PM accumulated on leaves of Ligustrum lucidum, a common evergreen tree species in North China. The effects of rainfall and wind on the amounts of PM deposited on foliage were also determined. The amounts of PM (g·m−2) retained by leaves of L. lucidum differed significantly among the sites (from 0.96 to 5.56) and over time (from 2.51 to 4.48). The largest amounts of PM on foliage of L. lucidum were observed on plants growing at the most polluted site. During the year, the highest and lowest accumulation of PM occurred in November and August, respectively. A considerable proportion of the accumulated PM on leaves was removed by rainfall events (28–48% of PM) and strong winds (27–36% of PM), and more precipitation or higher maximum wind speed could remove more PM from leaves. Rainfall removed mainly large and coarse particles, while fine particles adhered more strongly to the foliage. These results suggested that the effects of local weather conditions (e.g., rainfall, strong wind), different seasons, and pollution levels should be considered in evaluating total PM accumulation on leaves. PMID:25685849

Effects of weather, time, and pollution level on the amount of particulate matter deposited on leaves of Ligustrum lucidum.

PubMed

Wang, Huixia; Shi, Hui; Wang, Yanhui

2015-01-01

This paper investigated the spatial and temporal variations in the amounts of PM accumulated on leaves of Ligustrum lucidum, a common evergreen tree species in North China. The effects of rainfall and wind on the amounts of PM deposited on foliage were also determined. The amounts of PM (g · m(-2)) retained by leaves of L. lucidum differed significantly among the sites (from 0.96 to 5.56) and over time (from 2.51 to 4.48). The largest amounts of PM on foliage of L. lucidum were observed on plants growing at the most polluted site. During the year, the highest and lowest accumulation of PM occurred in November and August, respectively. A considerable proportion of the accumulated PM on leaves was removed by rainfall events (28-48% of PM) and strong winds (27-36% of PM), and more precipitation or higher maximum wind speed could remove more PM from leaves. Rainfall removed mainly large and coarse particles, while fine particles adhered more strongly to the foliage. These results suggested that the effects of local weather conditions (e.g., rainfall, strong wind), different seasons, and pollution levels should be considered in evaluating total PM accumulation on leaves.

Experimental study on influence of vegetation coverage on runoff in wind-water erosion crisscross region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinhua; Zhang, Ronggang; Sun, Juan

2018-02-01

Using artificial rainfall simulation method, 23 simulation experiments were carried out in water-wind erosion crisscross region in order to analyze the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and sediment yield. The experimental plots are standard plots with a length of 20m, width of 5m and slope of 15 degrees. The simulation experiments were conducted in different vegetation coverage experimental plots based on three different rainfall intensities. According to the experimental observation data, the influence of vegetation coverage on runoff and infiltration was analyzed. Vegetation coverage has a significant impact on runoff, and the higher the vegetation coverage is, the smaller the runoff is. Under the condition of 0.6mm/min rainfall intensity, the runoff volume from the experimental plot with 18% vegetation coverage was 1.2 times of the runoff from the experimental with 30% vegetation coverage. What’s more, the difference of runoff is more obvious in higher rainfall intensity. If the rainfall intensity reaches 1.32mm/min, the runoff from the experimental plot with 11% vegetation coverage is about 2 times as large as the runoff from the experimental plot with 53%vegetation coverage. Under the condition of small rainfall intensity, the starting time of runoff in the experimental plot with higher vegetation coverage is later than that in the experimental plot with low vegetation coverage. However, under the condition of heavy rainfall intensity, there is no obvious difference in the beginning time of runoff. In addition, the higher the vegetation coverage is, the deeper the rainfall infiltration depth is.The results can provide reference for ecological construction carried out in wind erosion crisscross region with serious soil erosion.

Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian

2012-01-01

The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In particular, a weaker East Asian summer monsoon is characterized by weaker southerly or southwesterly winds, a deficit in rainfall over northern China and larger rainfalls in southern China. By contrast, when the East Asian summer monsoon is strong, the southerly winds and strong rainfalls extend to northern China. The decadal scale decline in the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s would imply an increase in aerosol concentrations in northern China, north of 28deg N, and a decrease in southern China if emissions were kept the same. One obvious reason for this direction of aerosol change is that the reduction of monsoon rainfall in northern China would cause less wet scavenging of aerosols by precipitation. Zhu et al.2 investigated this relationship between aerosol concentrations and the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon and showed that the two parameters have strong negative correlations: the summer aerosol concentrations near the surface over eastern China.

Hydrologic data for the Salt Bayou estuary near Sabine Pass, Texas, October 1984 to March 1986

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, J.C.

1988-01-01

Precipitation data were obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stations at Port Arthur, Anahuac, and Sea Rim State Park and were used to estimate the contribution of freshwater from rainfall. Evaporation data were obtained from Beaumont Research Station and were used to make estimates of water consumption from evapotranspiration. Wind speed and direction were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather station at Sea Rim State Park.

Environmental and internal controls of tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desflots, Melicie

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is governed by internal dynamics and environmental conditions. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for TC intensity changes with a particular focus to those related to the vertical wind shear and the impact of sea spray on the hurricane boundary layer, by using high resolution, full physics numerical simulations. The coupled model consists of three components: the non-hydrostatic, 5th generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), the NOAA/NCEP WAVEWATCH III (WW3) ocean surface wave model, and the WHOI three-dimensional upper ocean circulation model (3DPWP). Sea spray parameterizations (SSP) were developed at NOAA/ESRL, modified by the author and introduced in uncoupled and coupled simulations. The 0.5 km grid resolution MM5 simulation of Hurricane Lili showed a rapid intensification associated with a contracting eyewall. Hurricane Lili weakened in a 5-10 m s-1 vertical wind shear environment. The simulated storm experienced wind shear direction normal to the storm motion, which produced a strong wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry in the downshear-left quadrant of the storm. The increasing vertical wind shear induced a vertical tilt of the vortex with a time lag of 5-6 hours after the wavenumber one rainfall asymmetry was first observed in the model simulation. Other factors controlling intensity and intensity change in tropical cyclones are the air-sea fluxes. Recent studies have shown that the momentum exchange coefficient levels off at high wind speed. However, the behavior of the exchange coefficient for enthalpy flux in high wind and the potential impact of sea spray on it is still uncertain. The current SSP are closely tied to wind speed and overestimate the mediated heat fluxes by sea spray in the hurricane boundary layer. As the sea spray generation depends on wind speed and the variable wave state, a new SSP based on the surface wave energy dissipation (WED) is introduced in the coupled model. In the coupled simulations, the WED is used to quantify the amount of wave breaking related to the generation of spray. The SSP coupled to the waves offers an improvement compared to the wind dependent SSP.

Ten-Year Climatology of Summertime Diurnal Rainfall Rate Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Mocko, David; Lee, Myong-In; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Suarez, Max J.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

2010-01-01

Diurnal cycles of summertime rainfall rates are examined over the conterminous United States, using radar-gauge assimilated hourly rainfall data. As in earlier studies, rainfall diurnal composites show a well-defined region of rainfall propagation over the Great Plains and an afternoon maximum area over the south and eastern portion of the United States. Zonal phase speeds of rainfall in three different small domains are estimated, and rainfall propagation speeds are compared with background zonal wind speeds. Unique rainfall propagation speeds in three different regions can be explained by the evolution of latent-heat theory linked to the convective available potential energy, than by gust-front induced or gravity wave propagation mechanisms.

Convective cell development and propagation in a mesoscale convective complex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahn, Yoo-Shin; Brundidge, Kenneth C.

1987-01-01

A case study was made of the mesoscale convective complex (MCC) which occurred over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas on 27 May 1981. This storm moved in an eastsoutheasterly direction and during much of its lifetime was observable by radars at Oklahoma City, Ok. and Stephenville, Tx. It was found that the direction of cell (VIP level 3 or more reflectivity) propagation was somewhat erratic but approximately the same as the system (VIP level 1 reflectivity) movement and the ambient wind. New cells developed along and behind the gust front make it appear that once the MCC is initiated, a synergistic relationship exists between the gust front and the MCC. The relationship between rainfall patterns and amounts and the infrared (IR) temperature field in the satellite imagery were examined. The 210 K isotherm of GOES IR imagery was found to encompass the rain area of the storm. The heaviest rainfall was in the vicinity of the VIP level 3 cells and mostly contained within the 205 K isotherm of GOES IR imagery.

On the wind-induced undercatch in rainfall measurement using CFD-based simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca

2016-04-01

The reliability of liquid atmospheric precipitation measurements is a basic requirement since rainfall data represent the fundamental input variables of many scientific applications (hydrologic models, weather forecasting data assimilation, climate change studies, calibration of weather radar, etc.). The scientific community and the National Meteorological Services worldwide are facing the issue of improving the accuracy of precipitation measurements, with an increased focus on retrieving the information at a high temporal resolution. The rainfall intensity is indeed fundamental information for the precise quantification of the markedly time-varying behavior of precipitation events. Environmental conditions have a relevant impact on the rain collection/sensing efficiency. Among other effects, wind is recognized as a major source of underestimation since it reduces the collection efficiency of the catching-type gauges (Nespor and Sevruk, 1999), the most common type of instruments used worldwide in the national observation networks. The collection efficiency is usually obtained by comparing the rainfall amounts measured by the gauge with the reference, which was defined by EN-13798 standard (CEN, 2002) as a gauge placed below the ground level inside a pit. A lot of scatter can be observed for a given wind speed, which is mainly caused by comparability issues among the tested gauges. An additional source of uncertainty is the drops size distribution (DSD) of the rain, which varies on an event-by-event basis. The goal of this study is to understand the role of the physical characteristics of precipitation particles on the wind-induced rainfall underestimation observed for catching-type gauges. To address this issue, a detailed analysis of the flow field in the vicinity of the gauge is conducted using time-averaged computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations (Colli et al., 2015). Using a Lagrangian model, which accounts for the hydrodynamic behavior of liquid particles in the atmosphere, droplets trajectories are calculated to obtain the collection efficiency associated with different drop size distribution and varying the wind speed. The main benefit of investigating this error by means of CFD simulations is the possibility to single out the prevailing environmental factors from the instrumental performance of the gauges under analysis. The preliminary analysis shows the variations in the catch efficiency due to the horizontal wind speeds and the DSD. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of the environmental sources of uncertainty in rainfall measurements. References: Colli, M., R. Rasmussen, J. M. Theriault, L. G. Lanza, C. B. Baker & J. Kochendorfer (2015) An Improved Trajectory Model to Evaluate the Collection Performance of Snow Gauges. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, 1826-1836 Nespor, V. and Sevruk, B. (1999). Estimation of wind-induced error of rainfall gauge measurements using a numerical simulation. J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech, 16(4), 450-464. CEN (2002). EN 13798:2002 Hydrometry - Specification for a reference raingauge pit. European Committee for Standardization.

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Mechanics of Interrill Erosion with Wind-Driven Rain (WDR)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This article provides an evaluation analysis for the performance of the interrill component of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) events. The interrill delivery rates (Di) were collected in the wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility of the International Cen...

[Analysis of acid rain characteristics of Lin'an Regional Background Station using long-term observation data].

PubMed

Li, Zheng-Quan; Ma, Hao; Mao, Yu-Ding; Feng, Tao

2014-02-01

Using long-term observation data of acid rain at Lin'an Regional Background Station (Lin'an RBS), this paper studied the interannual and monthly variations of acid rain, the reasons for the variations, and the relationships between acid rain and meteorological factors. The results showed that interannual variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS had a general increasing trend in which there were two obvious intensifying processes and two distinct weakening processes, during the period ranging from 1985 to 2012. In last two decades, the monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS indicated that rain acidity and frequency of severe acid rain were increasing but the frequency of weak acid rain was decreasing when moving towards bilateral side months of July. Acid rain occurrence was affected by rainfall intensity, wind speed and wind direction. High frequency of severe acid rain and low frequency of weak acid rain were on days with drizzle, but high frequency of weak acid rain and low frequency of severe acid rain occurred on rainstorm days. With wind speed upgrading, the frequency of acid rain and the proportion of severe acid rain were declining, the pH value of precipitation was reducing too. Another character is that daily dominant wind direction of weak acid rain majorly converged in S-W section ,however that of severe acid rain was more likely distributed in N-E section. The monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS was mainly attributed to precipitation variation, the increasing and decreasing of monthly incoming wind from SSE-WSW and NWN-ENE sections of wind direction. The interannual variation of acid rain could be due to the effects of energy consumption raising and significant green policies conducted in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai.

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Area and shape metrics of rainfall fields associated with tropical cyclones landfalling over the western Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.

2017-12-01

The rainfall associated with TCs making landfall over western Gulf Coast and Caribbean Sea Coast caused numerous fatalities and divesting damage, however, few studies have been done over these regions. This study examines spatial pattern of rain fields associated with TCs making landfall over western Gulf Coast and Caribbean Sea Coast during 1998-2015 through a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis of satellite-estimated rain rates. Regions of light rainfall (rain rate > 2.5 mm/h) and moderate rainfall (rain rate > 5.0 mm/h) during entire life cycle of each TC are converted into polygons and measurements are made of their area, dispersion and displacement during entire life cycle. The metric of dispersion is calculated for the entire rain field as defined by outlining light and moderate rain rates. The displacement to east and north is calculated by area weighted methods. There are three main objectives of this study. The first goal is to measure the area and spatial distribution of rain fields of TCs making landfall over the western Gulf and Caribbean Sea coastlines. We examine in which regions, the light and moderate rainfall area, dispersion and displacement of rainfall have higher values, and how they change during the entire TC life cycle. The second goal is to determine to determine which environmental conditions are associated with the spatial configuration of light and moderate rain rates. The conditions include storm intensity, motion direction and speed, total precipitable water and wind shear. Last, we determine the time that rainfall reaches land relative to the time that the storm's center makes landfall and durations of rainfall from TCs over land.

Exploration of Extended-Area Treatment Effects in FACE-2 Using Satellite Imagery.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meití, José G.; Woodley, William L.; Flueck, John A.

1984-01-01

The second phase of the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE-2) has been completed and an exploratory analysis has been conducted to investigate the possibility that cloud seeding may have affected the rainfall outside the intended target. Rainfall was estimated over a 3.5×105 km2 area centered on the target using geosynchronous, infrared satellite imagery and the Griffith-Woodley rain estimation technique. This technique was derived in South Florida by calibrating infrared images using raingage and radar observations to produce an empirical, diagnostic (a posteriori), satellite rain estimation technique. The satellite rain estimates for the extended area were adjusted based on comparisons of raingage and satellite rainfall estimates for the entire FACE target (1.3×104 km2). All daily rainfall estimates were composited in two ways: 1) in the original coordinate system and 2) in a relative coordinate system that rotates the research area as a function of wind direction. After compositing, seeding effects were sought as a function of space and time.The results show more rainfall (in the mean) on seed than no seed days both in and downwind of the target but lesser rainfall upwind. All differences (averaging 20% downwind and 10% upwind) are confined in space to within 200 km of the center of the FACE target and in time to the 8 h period after initial treatment. In addition, the positive correlation between untreated upwind rainfall and target rainfall is degraded on seed days, suggesting possible intermittent negative effects of seeding upwind. Although the development of these differences in space and time suggests that seeding may have been partially responsible for their generation, the results do not have strong inferential (P-value) support.

Multifuctional integrated sensors (MFISES).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Homeijer, Brian D.; Roozeboom, Clifton

2015-10-01

Many emerging IoT applications require sensing of multiple physical and environmental parameters for: completeness of information, measurement validation, unexpected demands, improved performance. For example, a typical outdoor weather station measures temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, light intensity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Existing sensor technologies do not directly address the demand for cost, size, and power reduction in multi-paramater sensing applications. Industry sensor manufacturers have developed integrated sensor systems for inertial measurements that combine accelerometers, gyroscopes, and magnetometers, but do not address environmental sensing functionality. In existing research literature, a technology gap exists between the functionality of MEMS sensors and themore » real world applications of the sensors systems.« less

Wind, rain and bacteria: The effect of weather on the microbial composition of roof-harvested rainwater.

PubMed

Evans, C A; Coombes, P J; Dunstan, R H

2006-01-01

The microbiological and chemical quality of tank-stored rainwater is impacted directly by roof catchment and subsequent run-off contamination, via direct depositions by birds and small mammals, decay of accumulated organic debris, and atmospheric deposition of airborne micro-organisms and chemical pollutants. Previous literature reports on roof water quality have given little consideration to the relative significance of airborne micro-organisms. This study involved analyses of direct roof run-off at an urban housing development in Newcastle, on the east coast of Australia. A total of 77 samples were collected during 11 separate rainfall events, and microbial counts and mean concentrations of several ionic contaminants were matched to climatic data corresponding to each of the monitored events. Conditions both antecedent to, and those prevailing during each event, were examined to investigate the influence of certain meteorological parameters on the bacterial composition of the roof water and indirectly assess the relative contribution of airborne micro-organisms to the total bacterial load. Results indicated that airborne micro-organisms represented a significant contribution to the bacterial load of roof water at this site, and that the overall contaminant load was influenced by wind velocities, while the profile (composition) of the load varied with wind direction. The implications of these findings to the issues of tank water quality and health risk analysis, appropriate usage and system design are discussed.

Daily Rainfall Simulation Using Climate Variables and Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.; Joo, H. J.; Han, D.

2017-12-01

Markov chain is an easy method to handle when we compare it with other ones for the rainfall simulation. However, it also has limitations in reflecting seasonal variability of rainfall or change on rainfall patterns caused by climate change. This study applied a Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model(NHMM) to consider these problems. The NHMM compared with a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) for the evaluation of a goodness of the model. First, we chose Gum river basin in Korea to apply the models and collected daily rainfall data from the stations. Also, the climate variables of geopotential height, temperature, zonal wind, and meridional wind date were collected from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to consider external factors affecting the rainfall event. We conducted a correlation analysis between rainfall and climate variables then developed a linear regression equation using the climate variables which have high correlation with rainfall. The monthly rainfall was obtained by the regression equation and it became input data of NHMM. Finally, the daily rainfall by NHMM was simulated and we evaluated the goodness of fit and prediction capability of NHMM by comparing with those of HMM. As a result of simulation by HMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.2076 and 10.8243/131.1304mm each. In case of NHMM, the correlation coefficient and root mean square error of daily/monthly rainfall were 0.6652 and 10.5112/100.9865mm each. We could verify that the error of daily and monthly rainfall simulated by NHMM was improved by 2.89% and 22.99% compared with HMM. Therefore, it is expected that the results of the study could provide more accurate data for hydrologic analysis. Acknowledgements This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2016-11-01

Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

What controls stemflow? A LiDAR-based investigation of individual tree canopy structure, neighborhood conditions, and meteorological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yankine, S. A.; Van Stan, J. T., II; Mesta, D. C.; Côté, J. F.; Hildebrandt, A.; Friesen, J.; Maldonado, G.

2017-12-01

Stemflow is a pointed hydrologic flux at the base of tree stems that has been linked to a host of biogeochemical processes in vegetated landscapes. Much work has been done to examine controls over stemflow water yield, finding three major factors: individual tree canopy structure, meteorological variables, and neighborhood conditions. However, the authors are unaware of any study to directly quantify all factors using a combination of terrestrial LiDAR and micrometeorological monitoring methods. This study directly quantifies individual Pinus palustris tree canopy characteristics (trunk volume and angle, branch volume and angle from 1st-to-3rd order, bark roughness, and height), 10-m radius neighborhood properties (number of trees, mean diameter and height, mean distance from study tree, and canopy overlap), and above-canopy storm conditions (magnitude, intensity, mean/max wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit) directly at the site. Stemflow production was 1% of rainfall, ranging from 0.3-59 L per storm from individual trees. Preliminary findings from storms (5-176 mm in magnitude) indicate that all individual tree characteristics, besides bark roughness, have little influence on stemflow generation. Bark roughness altered stemflow generation by affecting trunk water storage (0.1-0.7 mm) and wet trunk evaporation rates (0.005-0.03 mm/h). The strongest influence over stemflow generation from individual trees was the interaction between neighborhood characteristics and meteorological conditions (primarily rainfall amount and, secondarily, rainfall intensity).

Secure Automated Microgrid Energy System (SAMES)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

with embedded algorithm to share power between each other; • Wind Turbine (WT) Simulator, max 80 kW (4×20 kW), 480 V, Running Wind Generation...Temp, Rain, Wind ........................ 39 Figure 22. Point Loma, Box and Whisker Plot, Hourly Sum of Consumption ............................ 40...Figure 27. Coronado, Consumption vs Average Daily SD Temp, Rainfall, Wind ....................... 44 Figure 28. Naval Base Point Loma, One Line, Solar

Eddy covariance and lysimeter measurements of moisture fluxes over supraglacial debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brock, Benjamin

2015-04-01

Supraglacial debris covers have the potential to evaporate large quantities of water derived from either sub-debris ice melt or precipitation. Currently, knowledge of evaporation and condensation rates in supraglacial debris is limited due to the difficulty of making direct measurements. This paper presents eddy covariance and lysimeter measurements of moisture fluxes made over a 0.2 m debris layer at Miage debris covered glacier, Italian Alps, during the 2013 ablation season. The meteorological data are complimented by reflectometer measurements of volumetric water fraction in the saturated and vadose zones of the debris layer. The lysimeters were designed specifically to mimic the debris cover and were embedded within the debris matrix, level with the surface. Over the ablation season, the latent heat flux is dominated by evaporation, and the flux magnitude closely follows the daily cycle of daytime solar heating and night time radiative cooling of debris. Mean flux values are of the order of 1 kg m-2 day-1, but often higher for short periods following rainfall. Condensation rates are relatively small and restricted to night time and humid conditions when the debris-atmosphere vapour pressure gradient reverses due to relatively warm air overlying cold debris. The reflectometer measurements provide evidence of vertical water movement through capillary rise in the upper part of the fine-grained debris layer, just above the saturated horizon, and demonstrate how debris bulk water content increases after rainfall. The latent heat flux responds directly to changes in wind speed, indicating that atmospheric turbulence can penetrate porous upper debris layers to the saturated horizon. Hence, vertical sorting of debris sediments and antecedent rainfall are important in determining evaporation rates, in addition to current meteorological conditions. Comparison of lysimeter measurements with rainfall data provides an estimate that between 45% and 89% of rainfall is evaporated directly back to the atmosphere. Rainfall evaporation rates increase with debris impermeability and temperature, with highest rates occurring when a shower falls on hot debris. If these point measurements are representative of larger scales, evaporation rates of the order of 1000 tonnes km-2 day-1 are implied, with higher rates following rainfall. This has important implications for downstream runoff, sub-debris ice melt rates (due to consumption of evaporative latent heat energy) and, possibly, convective atmospheric processes.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

PubMed

de Jong, Pieter; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

2018-09-01

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K.; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A.; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-01

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Multiscale analyses on a massive immigration process of Sogatella furcifera (Horváth) in south-central China: influences of synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and topography.

PubMed

Wu, Qiu-Lin; Westbrook, John K; Hu, Gao; Lu, Ming-Hong; Liu, Wan-Cai; Sword, Gregory A; Zhai, Bao-Ping

2018-04-30

Mass landings of migrating white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horváth), can lead to severe outbreaks that cause heavy losses for rice production in East Asia. South-central China is the main infestation area on the annual migration loop of S. furcifera between the northern Indo-China Peninsula and mainland China; however, rice planthopper species are not able to survive in this region over winter. In this study, a trajectory analysis of movements from population source areas and a spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of mesoscale and synoptic weather conditions from 7 to 10 May 2012 were conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to identify source areas of immigrants and determine how weather and topographic terrain influence insect landing. A sensitivity experiment was conducted with reduced topography using the WRF model to explain the associations among rainfall, topography, and light-trap catches of S. furcifera. The trajectory modeling results suggest that the source areas of S. furcifera immigrants into south-central China from 8 to 10 May were mainly southern Guangxi, northern Vietnam, and north-central Vietnam. The appearance of enormous catches of immigrant S. furcifera coincided with a period of rainstorms. The formation of transporting southerly winds was strongly associated with the topographic terrain. Additionally, the rainfall distribution and intensity over south-central China significantly decreased when topography was reduced in the model and were directly affected by wind circulation, which was associated with mountainous terrain that caused strong convection. This study indicates that migrating populations of S. furcifera were carried by the southwesterly low-level jets and that topographically induced convergent winds, precipitation, low temperatures, and wind shear acted as key factors that led to massive landings.

Gamma-radiation monitoring in post-tectonic biotitic granites at Celorico da Beira

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domingos, Filipa; Barbosa, Susana; Pereira, Alcides; Neves, Luís

2017-04-01

Despite its obvious relevance, the effect of meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, wind, rainfall and particularly humidity on the temporal variability of natural radiation is complex and still not fully understood. Moreover, the nature of their influence with increasing depth is also poorly understood. Thereby, two boreholes were set 3 m apart in the region of Celorico da Beira within post-tectonic biotitic granites of the Beiras Batolith. Continuous measurements were obtained with identical gamma-ray scintillometers deployed at depths of 1 and 6 m during a 6 month period in the years of 2014 and 2015. Temperature, relative humidity, pressure, rainfall, wind speed and direction were measured at the site, as well as temperature and relative humidity inside the boreholes, with the aim of assessing the influence of meteorological parameters on the temporal variability of gamma radiation at two distinct depths. Both time series display a complex temporal structure including multiyear, seasonal and daily variability. At 1 m depth, a daily periodicity on the gamma ray counts time series was noticed with daily maxima occurring most frequently from 8 to 12 p.m. and daily minima between 8 and 12 a.m.. At 6 m depth, maximum and minimum daily means occurred with approximately a 10 h lag from the above. Gamma radiation data exhibited fairly strong correlations with temperature and relative humidity, however, varying with depth. Gamma radiation counts increased with increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity at 1 m depth, while at a 6 m depth the opposite was recorded, with counts increasing with relative humidity and decreasing with temperature. Wind speed was shown to be inversely related with counts at 6 m depth, while positively correlated at 1 m depth. Pressure and rainfall had minor effects on both short-term and long-term gamma radiation counts.

Blow me down: A new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. Results We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Conclusions Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events. PMID:24641794

Blow me down: a new perspective on Aloe dichotoma mortality from windthrow.

PubMed

Jack, Samuel Linton; Hoffman, Michael Timm; Rohde, Rick Frederick; Durbach, Ian; Archibald, Margaret

2014-03-18

Windthrow, the uprooting of trees during storms associated with strong winds, is a well-established cause of mortality in temperate regions of the world, often with large ecological consequences. However, this phenomenon has received little attention within arid regions and is not well documented in southern Africa. Slow rates of post-disturbance recovery and projected increases in extreme weather events in arid areas mean that windthrow could be more common and have bigger impacts on these ecosystems in the future. This is of concern due to slow rates of post-disturbance recovery in arid systems and projected increases in extreme weather events in these areas. This study investigated the spatial pattern, magnitude and likely causes of windthrown mortality in relation to other forms of mortality in Aloe dichotoma, an iconic arid-adapted arborescent succulent and southern Africa climate change indicator species. We found that windthrown mortality was greatest within the equatorward summer rainfall zone (SRZ) of its distribution (mean = 31%, n = 11), and was derived almost exclusively from the larger adult age class. A logistic modelling exercise indicated that windthrown mortality was strongly associated with greater amounts of warm season (summer) rainfall in the SRZ, higher wind speeds, and leptosols. A statistically significant interaction term between higher summer rainfall and wind speeds further increased the odds of being windthrown. While these results would benefit from improvements in the resolution of wind and substrate data, they do support the hypothesised mechanism for windthrow in A. dichotoma. This involves powerful storm gusts associated with either the current or subsequent rainfall event, heavy convective rainfall, and an associated increase in soil malleability. Shallow rooting depths in gravel-rich soils and an inflexible, top-heavy canopy structure make individuals especially prone to windthrown mortality during storms. Results highlight the importance of this previously unrecognised form of mortality in A. dichotoma, especially since it seems to disproportionately affect reproductively mature adult individuals in an infrequently recruiting species. Smaller, more geographically isolated and adult dominated populations in the summer rainfall zone are likely to be more vulnerable to localised extinction due to windthrow events.

Cause Resolving of Typhoon Precipitation Using Principle Component Analysis under Complex Interactive Effect of Terrain, Monsoon and Typhoon Vortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. L.; Hsu, N. S.

2015-12-01

This study develops a novel methodology to resolve the cause of typhoon-induced precipitation using principle component analysis (PCA) and to develop a long lead-time precipitation prediction model. The discovered spatial and temporal features of rainfall are utilized to develop a state-of-the-art descriptive statistical model which can be used to predict long lead-time precipitation during typhoons. The time series of 12-hour precipitation from different types of invasive moving track of typhoons are respectively precede the signal analytical process to qualify the causes of rainfall and to quantify affected degree of each induced cause. The causes include: (1) interaction between typhoon rain band and terrain; (2) co-movement effect induced by typhoon wind field with monsoon; (3) pressure gradient; (4) wind velocity; (5) temperature environment; (6) characteristic distance between typhoon center and surface target station; (7) distance between grade 7 storm radius and surface target station; and (8) relative humidity. The results obtained from PCA can detect the hidden pattern of the eight causes in space and time and can understand the future trends and changes of precipitation. This study applies the developed methodology in Taiwan Island which is constituted by complex diverse terrain formation and height. Results show that: (1) for the typhoon moving toward the direction of 245° to 330°, Causes (1), (2) and (6) are the primary ones to generate rainfall; and (2) for the direction of 330° to 380°, Causes (1), (4) and (6) are the primary ones. Besides, the developed precipitation prediction model by using PCA with the distributed moving track approach (PCA-DMT) is 32% more accurate by that of PCA without distributed moving track approach, and the former model can effectively achieve long lead-time precipitation prediction with an average predicted error of 13% within average 48 hours of forecasted lead-time.

Identification of anomalous motion of thunderstorms using daily rainfall fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moral, Anna del; Llasat, María del Carmen; Rigo, Tomeu

2017-03-01

Most of the adverse weather phenomena in Catalonia (northeast Iberian Peninsula) are caused by convective events, which can produce heavy rains, large hailstones, strong winds, lightning and/or tornadoes. These thunderstorms usually have marked paths. However, their trajectories can vary sharply at any given time, completely changing direction from the path they have previously followed. Furthermore, some thunderstorms split or merge with each other, creating new formations with different behaviour. In order to identify the potentially anomalous movements that some thunderstorms make, this paper presents a two-step methodology using a database with 8 years of daily rainfall fields data for the Catalonia region (2008-2015). First, it classifies daily rainfall fields between days with "no rain", "non-potentially convective rain" and "potentially convective rain", based on daily accumulated precipitation and extension thresholds. Second, it categorises convective structures within rainfall fields and briefly identifies their main features, distinguishing whether there were any anomalous thunderstorm movements in each case. This methodology has been applied to the 2008-2015 period, and the main climatic features of convective and non-convective days were obtained. The methodology can be exported to other regions that do not have the necessary radar-based algorithms to detect convective cells, but where there is a good rain gauge network in place.

Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

2014-11-01

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

Ecogeomorphology of Sand Dunes Shaped by Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsoar, H.

2014-12-01

Two dune types associated with vegetation are known: Parabolic and Vegetated Linear Dunes (VLDs), the latters are the dominant dune type in the world deserts. Parabolic dunes are formed in humid, sub-humid and semi-arid environments (rather than arid) where vegetation is nearby. VLDs are known today in semiarid and arid lands where the average yearly rainfall is ≥100 mm, enough to support sparse cover of vegetation. These two dune types are formed by unidirectional winds although they demonstrate a different form and have a distinct dynamics. Conceptual and mathematical models of dunes mobility and stability, based on three control parameters: wind power (DP), average annual precipitation (p), and the human impact parameter (μ) show that where human impact is negligible the effect of wind power (DP) on vegetative cover is substantial. The average yearly rainfall of 60-80 mm is the threshold of annual average rainfall for vegetation growth on dune sand. The model is shown to follow a hysteresis path, which explains the bistability of active and stabilized dunes under the same climatic conditions with respect to wind power. We have discerned formation of parabolic dunes from barchans and transverse dunes in the coastal plain of Israel where a decrease in human activity during the second half of the 20th century caused establishment of vegetation on the crest of the dunes, a process that changed the dynamics of these barchans and transverse dunes and led to a change in the shape of the windward slope from convex to concave. These dunes gradually became parabolic. It seems that VLDs in Australia or the Kalahari have always been vegetated to some degree, though the shrubs were sparser in colder periods when the aeolian erosion was sizeable. Those ancient conditions are characterized by higher wind power and lower rainfall that can reduce, but not completely destroy, the vegetation cover, leading to the formation of lee (shadow) dunes behind each shrub. Formation of such VLDs can occur today in some coasts where the wind is quite strong and the rain can support some shrubs.

Where do forests influence rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

2017-04-01

Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

Observations of the marine environment from spaceborne side-looking real aperture radars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalmykov, A. I.; Velichko, S. A.; Tsymbal, V. N.; Kuleshov, Yu. A.; Weinman, J. A.; Jurkevich, I.

1993-01-01

Real aperture, side looking X-band radars have been operated from the Soviet Cosmos-1500, -1602, -1766 and Ocean satellites since 1984. Wind velocities were inferred from sea surface radar scattering for speeds ranging from approximately 2 m/s to those of hurricane proportions. The wind speeds were within 10-20 percent of the measured in situ values, and the direction of the wind velocity agreed with in situ direction measurements within 20-50 deg. Various atmospheric mesoscale eddies and tropical cyclones were thus located, and their strengths were inferred from sea surface reflectivity measurements. Rain cells were observed over both land and sea with these spaceborne radars. Algorithms to retrieve rainfall rates from spaceborne radar measurements were also developed. Spaceborne radars have been used to monitor various marine hazards. For example, information derived from those radars was used to plan rescue operations of distressed ships trapped in sea ice. Icebergs have also been monitored, and oil spills were mapped. Tsunamis produced by underwater earthquakes were also observed from space by the radars on the Cosmos 1500 series of satellites. The Cosmos-1500 satellite series have provided all weather radar imagery of the earths surface to a user community in real time by means of a 137.4 MHz Automatic Picture Transmission channel. This feature enabled the radar information to be used in direct support of Soviet polar maritime activities.

Wind Shear Identification with the Retrieval Wind of Doppler Wearth Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, S.; Cui, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhang, T.

2018-05-01

A new method, which based on the wind field retrieval algorithm of Volume Velocity Process (VVP), has been used to identified the intensity of wind shear occurred in a severe convection process in Guangzhou. The intensity of wind shear's strength shown that new cells would be more likely to generate in areas where the magnitude generally larger than 3.0 m/(s*km). Moreover, in the areas of potential areas of rainfall, the wind shear's strength would larger than 4.5 m/(s*km). This wind shear identify method is very helpful to forecasting severe convections' moving and developments.

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDermid, Sonali P.; Dileepkumar, Guntuku; Murthy, K. M. Dakshina; Nedumaran, S.; Singh, Piara; Srinivasa, Chukka; Gangwar, B.; Subash, N.; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Zubair, Lareef;

Atmospheric Signature of the Agulhas Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle Stela; Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Rouault, Mathieu

2018-05-01

Western boundary currents play an important role in the climate system by transporting heat poleward and releasing it to the atmosphere. While their influence on extratropical storms and oceanic rainfall is becoming appreciated, their coastal influence is less known. Using satellite and climate reanalysis data sets and a regional atmospheric model, we show that the Agulhas Current is a driver of the observed band of rainfall along the southeastern African coast and above the Agulhas Current. The Agulhas current's warm core is associated with sharp gradients in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, a convergence of low-level winds, and a co-located band of precipitation. Correlations among wind convergence, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature indicate that these features show high degree of similarity to those in the Gulf Stream region. Model experiments further indicate that the Agulhas Current mostly impacts convective rainfall.

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

The effects of low-tide rainfall on metal content of suspended sediment in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moskalski, S. M.; Torres, R.; Bizimis, M.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Fleck, J.; Goni, M. A.

2012-12-01

Rain falling near low tide is capable of eroding and transporting cohesive sediment from marsh and mudflat surfaces. Given that metals adsorb strongly to silt- and clay-sized particles, it is conceivable that lowtide rainfall may also liberate previously-deposited metals from storage in intertidal sediment. To investigate the potential for rainfall as an agent of remobilization of metals, this study tested the hypothesis of sediment, and therefore metals and nutrients, mobilization during these punctuated low-tide rainfall events. Water samples were collected during low-tide rain events in winter and wind resuspension events in summer from a marsh in central California. The concentrations of suspended sediment, particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, and total adsorbed concentration (mass of metal per volume of filtered water) of most metals were higher during a low tide rainfall event than during wind-only and fair-weather events. Metal contents (mass of metal per mass of sediment) were also greater during the rain event for most metals. Principle components analysis and the relationships between total adsorbed metals and SSC suggest rainfall during low tide can mobilize a different source of sediment than the background sediment available for tidal and wind-wave resuspension. The metal content of bulk sediment samples from around the study area could not be matched satisfactorily to the suspended sediment in any of the events, implying that bulk sediment should not be used to extrapolate to suspended sediment in terms of adsorbed metal content. Some of the adsorbed metals were present during the rain event in amounts that could be toxic, depending on the actual bioavailability of the metals.; Summary plots of measured organic parameters. (A) POC (B) PN (C) C:N (D) total leachable metal concentration, sum of all measured metals. The solid line inside box is the median and the dashed line is the mean.

Enhancement of orographic precipitation in Jeju Island during the passage of Typhoon Khanun (2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jung-Tae; Ko, Kyeong-Yeon; Lee, Dong-In; You, Cheol-Hwan; Liou, Yu-Chieng

2018-03-01

Typhoon Khanun caused over 226 mm of accumulated rainfall for 6 h (0700 to 1300 UTC), localized around the summit of Mt. Halla (height 1950 m), with a slanted rainfall pattern to the northeast. In this study, we investigated the enhancement mechanism for precipitation near the mountains as the typhoon passed over Jeju Island via dual-Doppler radar analysis and simple trajectory of passive tracers using a retrieved wind field. The analysis of vertical profiles of the mountain region show marked features matching the geophysical conditions. In the central mountain region, a strong wind (≥ 7 m s- 1) helps to lift low-level air up the mountain. The time taken for lifting is longer than the theoretical time required for raindrop growth via condensation. The falling particles (seeder) from the upper cloud were also one of the reasons for an increase in rainfall via the accretion process from uplifted cloud water (feeder). The lifted air and falling particles both contributed to the heavy rainfall in the central region. In contrast, on the leeward side, the seeder-feeder mechanism was important in the formation of strong radar reflectivity. The snow particles (above 5 km) were accelerated by strong downward winds (≤-6 m s- 1). Meanwhile, the nonlinear jumping flow (hydraulic jump) raised feeders (shifted from the windward side) to the upper level where particles fall. To support these development processes, a numerical simulation using cloud-resolving model theoretically carried out. The accreting of hydrometeors may be one of the key reasons why the lee side has strong radar reflectivity, and a lee side weighted rainfall pattern even though lee side includes no strong upward air motion.

Possible rainfall reduction through reduced surface temperatures due to overgrazing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.

1975-01-01

Surface temperature reduction in terrain denuded of vegetation (as by overgrazing) is postulated to decrease air convection, reducing cloudiness and rainfall probability during weak meteorological disturbances. By reducing land-sea daytime temperature differences, the surface temperature reduction decreases daytime circulation of thermally driven local winds. The described desertification mechanism, even when limited to arid regions, high albedo soils, and weak meteorological disturbances, can be an effective rainfall reducing process in many areas including most of the Mediterranean lands.

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Pu, Zhaoxia

2003-01-01

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

Linking the North Atlantic Oscillation to Rainfall Over Northern Lake Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. C.; Powers, L. A.; Werne, J. P.; Brown, E. T.; Castaneda, I.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe-Damste, J.

2005-12-01

Piston and multi-cores recovered from the north basin of Lake Malawi in 1998 by the International Decade for the East African Lakes (IDEAL) have provided a rich history of climate variability spanning the past 25,000 years. As we now begin to analyze the cores recovered by the Malawi Drilling Project in early 2005, we are considering the relationships among sedimentary signals of temperature (TEX86), northerly winds associated with a southward excursion of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (per cent biogenic silica), and rainfall (terrigenous mass accumulation rate) in the well dated 1998 cores. A high-resolution record of the past 800 years suggests that rainfall in this region (10 - 12° S, 30 - 35° E) was relatively low during the Little Ice Age, when northerly winds were more prevalent, attributed to a more southerly position of the ITCZ during austral summers. The TEX86 signal of lake (surface?) temperature ranged mostly between 24 and 26°C during this period, with the coldest temperature of about 22°C around AD1680 and the warmest temperature, exceeding 27°C, in the youngest sediment sample. The cooler water temperatures coincide with periods of highest diatom productivity, consistent with the latter being due to relatively intense upwelling associated with the northerly winds. Our observation of low rainfall during periods of more southerly migration of the ITCZ is consistent with the results of McHugh and Rogers (2001), who linked rainfall in southeastern Africa to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During years of weak NAO, equatorial westerly transport of Atlantic moisture across Africa during austral summer is relatively intense, causing high rainfall in the East African Rift between the equator and 16° S. Conversely, when the NAO is positive, rainfall is higher south of 15° S than north of this latitude, which is consistent with a southward migration of the ITCZ. McHugh, M. J. and J. C. Rogers (2001). "North Atlantic Oscillation influence on precipitation variability around the southeast African convergence zone." Journal of Climate 14: 3631-3642.

A methodology for investigating interdependencies between measured throughfall, meteorological variables and canopy structure on a small catchment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Thomas; Gustavos Trujillo Siliézar, Carlos; Oeser, Anne; Pohle, Ina; Hinz, Christoph

2016-04-01

In evolving initial landscapes, vegetation development depends on a variety of feedback effects. One of the less understood feedback loops is the interaction between throughfall and plant canopy development. The amount of throughfall is governed by the characteristics of the vegetation canopy, whereas vegetation pattern evolution may in turn depend on the spatio-temporal distribution of throughfall. Meteorological factors that may influence throughfall, while at the same time interacting with the canopy, are e.g. wind speed, wind direction and rainfall intensity. Our objective is to investigate how throughfall, vegetation canopy and meteorological variables interact in an exemplary eco-hydrological system in its initial development phase, in which the canopy is very heterogeneous and rapidly changing. For that purpose, we developed a methodological approach combining field methods, raster image analysis and multivariate statistics. The research area for this study is the Hühnerwasser ('Chicken Creek') catchment in Lower Lusatia, Brandenburg, Germany, where after eight years of succession, the spatial distribution of plant species is highly heterogeneous, leading to increasingly differentiated throughfall patterns. The constructed 6-ha catchment offers ideal conditions for our study due to the rapidly changing vegetation structure and the availability of complementary monitoring data. Throughfall data were obtained by 50 tipping bucket rain gauges arranged in two transects and connected via a wireless sensor network that cover the predominant vegetation types on the catchment (locust copses, dense sallow thorn bushes and reeds, base herbaceous and medium-rise small-reed vegetation, and open areas covered by moss and lichens). The spatial configuration of the vegetation canopy for each measurement site was described via digital image analysis of hemispheric photographs of the canopy using the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst, GapLight and ImageJ software. Meteorological data from two on-site weather stations (wind direction, wind speed, air temperature, air humidity, insolation, soil temperature, precipitation) were provided by the 'Research Platform Chicken Creek' (https://www.tu-cottbus.de/projekte/en/oekosysteme/startseite.html). Data were combined and multivariate statistical analysis (PCA, cluster analysis, regression trees) were conducted using the R-software to i) obtain statistical indices describing the relevant characteristics of the data and ii) to identify the determining factors for throughfall intensity. The methodology is currently tested and results will be presented. Preliminary evaluation of the image analysis approach showed only marginal, systematic deviation of results for the different software tools applied, which makes the developed workflow a viable tool for canopy characterization. Results from this study will have a broad spectrum of possible applications, for instance the development / calibration of rainfall interception models, the incorporation into eco-hydrological models, or to test the fault tolerance of wireless rainfall sensor networks.

A UK portrait of wind-induced undercatch in rainfall measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollock, Michael; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg; Colli, Matteo; Dutton, Mark; Black, Andrew; Wilkinson, Mark; Kilsby, Chris; Stagnaro, Mattia; Lanza, Luca; O'Connell, Enda

2017-04-01

Rainfall is vital to life; civilisation depends upon it. Changing local and regional rainfall regimes toward more intense storm events (e.g. in the UK), increases the existing challenge of accurately measuring and modelling rainfall. Data from rain gauges, often considered to provide the most accurate practicable measure of precipitation at a point in space in time, play a critical role. They are used for, inter alia, flood forecasting and flood risk management; radar calibration and numerical weather prediction models; urban planning and drainage; and water resource management and hydrological modelling. Despite the key importance of these measurements, they remain susceptible to fundamental sources of systematic error which are often not considered when rainfall data are used. Inaccuracies in measurements are compounded in modelling applications by producing potentially misleading or incorrect results; it is therefore of great importance to understand and present uncertainty in observations. Standard practice is to mount rain gauges above the ground surface. This configuration obstructs the prevailing wind which causes an acceleration of airflow above the orifice. Precipitation is deflected away from the orifice and lands 'downstream' of the area represented by the gauge measurement, reducing its collection efficiency (CE). This phenomenon is commonly referred to as 'wind-induced undercatch'. The physical shape of a gauge bears a significant impact on its CE. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are used to investigate how different shapes of precipitation gauge are affected by the wind. CFD modelling is supported by high-resolution field measurements at several exposed 'Hydro-Met' research stations in the UK. These sites are occupied by rain gauges which are scrutinised in the CFD analyses. The reference measurements at all sites are made within a WMO reference pit, where the rain gauge is mounted with its orifice at ground level and surrounded by an appropriate grid structure. 'Undercatch' exhibited within UK storms, not captured by operational gauge networks in the UK, is quantified and presented in this study. Results from CFD modelling and the field studies show that gauge shape and mounting height significantly affect the extent of the undercatch. 'Aerodynamic' gauges following a 'champagne flute' or a 'funnel' profile were demonstrated by both to have significant advantages over conventional gauge shapes, in terms of improving the CE. This study presents the latest analyses, and proposes the possible extent of rainfall underestimation within the UK, with particular reference to its hydrology.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeramony, J.

2016-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.

The influence of climate, topography and land-use on the hydrology of ephemeral upland catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, E.; Webb, J.; Dresel, E.

2016-12-01

We report on an on-going project aimed at determining the effects of climate variability and land use change on water resources in ephemeral productive catchments. Meteorological data (including rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity and wind speed), streamflow and groundwater levels were collected continuously for over five years in seven ephemeral catchments in southeastern Australia. The catchments, dominated by either pasture for grazing (four) or Eucalyptus globulus (blue gum) plantations of different ages (three), were located in three different geological settings. Rainfall varied from higher than the long-term average of this area for the initial years of the study period to much drier than the long-term average for the last two years. Groundwater levels in the farm sites remained stable or slightly increased through the study period, while levels declined in all the plantation catchments, where evapotranspiration rates were greater than rainfall. The trees intercept groundwater recharge and in some areas of the catchments directly access groundwater. Streamflow occurred mainly during winter, with short-term flows in summer caused by sporadic large rainfall events. Despite the large annual rainfall variability, flow rates in each year were similar in most catchments, with the duration of flow being important in determining the annual flow. The frequency rather than the amount of rainfall events determines the generation of streamflow in the two catchments with steeper slopes. The effect of the tree plantations on streamflow varied from a substantial reduction in one catchment to no effect in another, where the tree rows are oriented predominantly downslope, allowing greater runoff. In the third plantation catchment, geology is the main driver of runoff due to capture into underlying karst conduits.

Simulated transient thermal infrared emissions of forest canopies during rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, Jerrell R.; Hawkins, William R.; Howington, Stacy E.; Kala, Raju V.

2017-05-01

We describe the development of a centimeter-scale resolution simulation framework for a theoretical tree canopy that includes rainfall deposition, evaporation, and thermal infrared emittance. Rainfall is simulated as discrete raindrops with specified rate. The individual droplets will either fall through the canopy and intersect the ground; adhere to a leaf; bounce or shatter on impact with a leaf resulting in smaller droplets that are propagated through the canopy. Surface physical temperatures are individually determined by surface water evaporation, spatially varying within canopy wind velocities, solar radiation, and water vapor pressure. Results are validated by theoretical canopy gap and gross rainfall interception models.

Investigating the Climate System: WINDS. Winds at work. Problem-Based Classroom Modules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Astwood, Phil

2003-01-01

With support from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) has developed educational materials that incorporate information and data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint satellite mission between the United States and Japan.…

Incident rainfall in Rome and its relation to biodeterioration of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caneva, G.; Gori, E.; Danin, A.

Intensity and distribution of incident rainfall in Rome, and degree of lithobiont cover of building walls, were estimated, and their correlation was discussed. Rainfall and wind data over 10 years for the Rome Meteorological Observatory of Torre Calandrelli (UCEA) were used to calculate the actual hydrocontribution received over walls at various exposures. The biological colonization by lithobionts was evaluated on a sample of 14 buildings in various places of the city, using a phytosociological scale for quantifying their total cover. During all seasons the rainfall shows a significant peak in the south and the southeast exposures, where the highest cover of lithobionts is found. These results show the role of incident rainfall in the climatic conditions of Rome as the main driving factor for the growth of lithobionts on walls where rainfall is their principal source of water.

Decision Support Tool Evaluation Report for Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Version 7.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

D'Sa, Eurico; Hall, Callie; Zanoni, Vicki; Holland, Donald; Blonski, Slawomir; Pagnutti, Mary; Spruce, Joseph P.

2004-01-01

The Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) is operated by NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research as part of its Coral Reef Watch program in response to the deteriorating global state of coral reef and related benthic ecosystems. In addition to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the two most important parameters used by the CREWS network in generating coral reef bleaching alerts are 1) wind speed and direction and 2) photosynthetically available radiation (PAR). NASA remote sensing products that can enhance CREWS in these areas include SST and PAR products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and wind data from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT). CREWS researchers are also interested in chlorophyll, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and salinity. Chlorophyll and CDOM are directly available as NASA products, while rainfall (an available NASA product) can be used as a proxy for salinity. Other potential NASA inputs include surface reflectance products from MODIS, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, and Landsat. This report also identifies NASA-supported ocean circulation models and products from future satellite missions that might enchance the CREWS DST.

Daily weather variables and affective disorder admissions to psychiatric hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McWilliams, Stephen; Kinsella, Anthony; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard

2014-12-01

Numerous studies have reported that admission rates in patients with affective disorders are subject to seasonal variation. Notwithstanding, there has been limited evaluation of the degree to which changeable daily meteorological patterns influence affective disorder admission rates. A handful of small studies have alluded to a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (heat waves in particular), wind direction and sunshine. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test, ARIMA and time-series regression analyses to examine whether daily meteorological variables—namely wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, hours of sunshine, sunlight radiation and temperature—influence admission rates for mania and depression across 12 regions in Ireland over a 31-year period. Although we found some very weak but interesting trends for barometric pressure in relation to mania admissions, daily meteorological patterns did not appear to affect hospital admissions overall for mania or depression. Our results do not support the small number of papers to date that suggest a link between daily meteorological variables and affective disorder admissions. Further study is needed.

Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

2018-03-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo-Western Pacific circulation anomalies in August 2016 are well predicted when the coupled model is initiated with initial conditions from end of July and beginning of August compared to May. This analysis suggests the importance of the WNP circulation in forcing strong sub-seasonal/month to month rainfall variations over India.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy rainfall episodes in Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Kellen Carla; Satyamurty, Prakki; Fernández, Júlio Pablo Reyes

2010-07-01

Heavy rainfall events in austral summer are responsible for almost all the natural disasters in Southeast Brazil. They are mostly associated with two types of atmospheric perturbations: Cold Front (53%) and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (47%). The important question of what synoptic characteristics distinguish a heavy rainfall event (HRE) from a normal rainfall event (NRE) is addressed in this study. Here, the evolutions of such characteristics are identified through the anomalies with respect to climatology of the composite fields of atmospheric variables. The anomalies associated with HRE are significantly more intense than those associated with NRE in all fundamental atmospheric variables such as outgoing long-wave radiation, sea-level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential, lower and upper tropospheric winds. The moisture flux convergence over Southeast Brazil in the HRE composites is 60% larger than in the NRE composites. The energetics calculations for the HRE that occurred in the beginning of February 1988 strongly suggest that the barotropic instability played an important role in the intensification of the perturbation. These results, especially the intensities of the wind, pressure anomalies, and the moisture convergence are useful for the meteorologists of the Southeast Brazil for forecasting heavy precipitation.

Exploring the spatio-temporal relationship between two key aeroallergens and meteorological variables in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khwarahm, Nabaz; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M.; Newnham, R. M.; Skjøth, C. A.; Adams-Groom, B.; Caulton, Eric; Head, K.

2014-05-01

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000-2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257-265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.

Typhoon Maysak

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-31

ISS043E078169 (03/31/2015) --- This close up of the huge Typhoon Maysak "eye" of the category 5 (hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale) was captured by astronauts on board the International Space Station Mar. 31, 2015. The massive Typhoon is headed toward the Philippines and expected to land on the upcoming Easter weekend. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites, both co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, captured rainfall and cloud data that revealed very heavy rainfall and high thunderstorms in the still strengthening storm.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yansen; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, K.-M.; Wetzel, Peter J.

2003-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data fiom the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo- China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the lowlevel temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation.

A reexamination of the emergy input to a system from the wind

EPA Science Inventory

With the establishment of a new, rigorously-determined, solar equivalence baseline for the geobiosphere, 12.0E+24 seJ y-1, it is now appropriate to reexamine the calculation of the emergy delivered by the major secondary products of the geobiosphere, e.g., wind and rainfall, whi...

Measurements of wind, aeolian sand transport, and precipitation in the Colorado River corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona; January 2005 to January 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Rubin, David M.

2006-01-01

This report presents measurements of aeolian sediment-transport rates, wind speed and direction, and precipitation records from six locations that contain aeolian deposits in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. Aeolian deposits, many of which contain and preserve archaeological material, are an important part of the Grand Canyon ecosystem. This report contains data collected between January 2005 and January 2006, and is the second in a series; the first contained data that were collected between November 2003 and December 2004 (Draut and Rubin, 2005; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1309/). Analysis of data collected in 2005 shows great spatial and seasonal variation in wind and precipitation patterns. Total annual rainfall can vary by more than a factor of two over distances ~ 10 km. Western Grand Canyon received substantially more precipitation than the eastern canyon during the abnormally wet winter of 2005. Great spatial variability in precipitation indicates that future sedimentary and geomorphic studies would benefit substantially from continued or expanded data collection at multiple locations along the river corridor, because rainfall records collected by NPS at Phantom Ranch (near river-mile 88) cannot be assumed to apply to other areas of the canyon. Wind velocities and sand transport in 2005 were greatest during May and June, with maximum winds locally as high as ~25 m s-1, and transport rates locally >100 g cm-1 d-1. This represents a later peak in seasonal aeolian sand transport compared to the previous year, in which transport rates were greatest in April and May 2004. Dominant wind direction varies with location, but during the spring windy season the greatest transport potential was directed upstream in Marble Canyon (eastern Grand Canyon). At all locations, rates of sand transport during the spring windy season were 5–15 times higher than at other times of year. This information has been used to evaluate the potential for aeolian reworking of new fluvial sand deposits, and restoration of higher-elevation aeolian deposits, following the 60-hour controlled flood release from Glen Canyon Dam in November 2004. Substantial deposition of new sand occurred at all study sites during this high-flow experiment, but most of the new sediment was eroded by high flow fluctuations between January and March 2005. Comparison of aeolian sand transport in the spring windy seasons of the preand post-flood years indicates that, where some of the flood-deposited sand remained by spring, aeolian sand transport was significantly higher than during the pre-flood spring. Gully incision in an aeolian dune field was observed to be partially ameliorated by deposition of wind-blown sand derived from a nearby 2004 flood deposit. These results imply that sediment-rich controlled floods can renew sand deposition in aeolian dune fields above the flood-stage elevation. The potential for restoration of archaeological sites in aeolian deposits can be maximized by using dam operations that maximize the open sand area on fluvial sandbars during spring, when aeolian sediment transport is greatest.

Salty Anomalies Forced by Central American Gap Winds: Aquarius Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grodsky, S. A.; Carton, J.; Bentamy, A.

2014-12-01

Although upwelling normally doesn't have direct impact on the sea surface salinity (SSS), we present observational evidence of upwelling-induced SSS patterns off the Pacific Central American coast. This area is characterized by stable near-surface salinity stratification that is produced by the mixed layer dilution by local rainfall. Here the fresh and warm mixed layer is periodically disrupted by the gap wind-induced uplifts of colder and saltier water. Aquarius SSS data capture these high SSS events. In boreal winter when the intense gap winds are frequent, two tongues of anomalously salty water develop off the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. During that season the average SSS in the meridionally oriented Tehuantepec tongue is about 0.4 psu saltier than background SSS. The zonally elongated Papagayo tongue stands out even more strongly, being 1 to 2 psu saltier than SSS in the neighboring Panama Bight. The spatial locations and orientations of these salty tongues closely correspond to the locations and orientations of the cool SST tongues suggesting they have similar governing mechanisms.

A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bech, Joan; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Aran, Montserrat; Amaro, Jéssica; Gayà, Miquel; Arús, Joan; Montanyà, Joan; der Velde, Oscar van

2011-06-01

This study presents an analysis of a severe weather case that took place during the early morning of the 2nd of November 2008, when intense convective activity associated with a rapidly evolving low pressure system affected the southern coast of Catalonia (NE Spain). The synoptic framework was dominated by an upper level trough and an associated cold front extending from Gibraltar along the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula to SE France, which moved north-eastward. South easterly winds in the north of the Balearic Islands and the coast of Catalonia favoured high values of 0-3 km storm relative helicity which combined with moderate MLCAPE values and high shear favoured the conditions for organized convection. A number of multicell storms and others exhibiting supercell features, as indicated by Doppler radar observations, clustered later in a mesoscale convective system, and moved north-eastwards across Catalonia. They produced ground-level strong damaging wind gusts, an F2 tornado, hail and heavy rainfall. Total lightning activity (intra-cloud and cloud to ground flashes) was also relevant, exhibiting several classical features such as a sudden increased rate before ground level severe damage, as discussed in a companion study. Remarkable surface observations of this event include 24 h precipitation accumulations exceeding 100 mm in four different observatories and 30 minute rainfall amounts up to 40 mm which caused local flash floods. As the convective system evolved northward later that day it also affected SE France causing large hail, ground level damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido

2017-04-01

It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting produced explained variances of 59%, 81%, 49% and 17% for PC1, PC2, PC3 and PC4, respectively, backing up the hypothesis of good correlation between geographical characteristics and seasonal rainfall patterns (comprised in the four principal components). With the obtained coefficients from the regression, the 108 rainfall percentiles for each station were back estimated giving very good results when compared with the original ones, with an overall 60% explained variance.

Annual monsoon rains recorded by Jurassic dunes.

PubMed

Loope, D B; Rowe, C M; Joeckel, R M

2001-07-05

Pangaea, the largest landmass in the Earth's history, was nearly bisected by the Equator during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic eras. Modelling experiments and stratigraphic studies have suggested that the supercontinent generated a monsoonal atmospheric circulation that led to extreme seasonality, but direct evidence for annual rainfall periodicity has been lacking. In the Mesozoic era, about 190 million years ago, thick deposits of wind-blown sand accumulated in dunes of a vast, low-latitude desert at Pangaea's western margin. These deposits are now situated in the southwestern USA. Here we analyse slump masses in the annual depositional cycles within these deposits, which have been described for some outcrops of the Navajo Sandstone. Twenty-four slumps, which were generated by heavy rainfall, appear within one interval representing 36 years of dune migration. We interpret the positions of 20 of these masses to indicate slumping during summer monsoon rains, with the other four having been the result of winter storms. The slumped lee faces of these Jurassic dunes therefore represent a prehistoric record of yearly rain events.

Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

1996-10-01

Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies over southern and northern parts of the Nordeste are out of phase: drought years over the northern Nordeste are commonly preceded by wetter years over the southern Nordeste, and vice versa.

A simplified diagnostic model of orographic rainfall for enhancing satellite-based rainfall estimates in data-poor regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2004-01-01

An extension of Sinclair's diagnostic model of orographic precipitation (“VDEL”) is developed for use in data-poor regions to enhance rainfall estimates. This extension (VDELB) combines a 2D linearized internal gravity wave calculation with the dot product of the terrain gradient and surface wind to approximate terrain-induced vertical velocity profiles. Slope, wind speed, and stability determine the velocity profile, with either sinusoidal or vertically decaying (evanescent) solutions possible. These velocity profiles replace the parameterized functions in the original VDEL, creating VDELB, a diagnostic accounting for buoyancy effects. A further extension (VDELB*) uses an on/off constraint derived from reanalysis precipitation fields. A validation study over 365 days in the Pacific Northwest suggests that VDELB* can best capture seasonal and geographic variations. A new statistical data-fusion technique is presented and is used to combine VDELB*, reanalysis, and satellite rainfall estimates in southern Africa. The technique, matched filter regression (MFR), sets the variance of the predictors equal to their squared correlation with observed gauge data and predicts rainfall based on the first principal component of the combined data. In the test presented here, mean absolute errors from the MFR technique were 35% lower than the satellite estimates alone. VDELB assumes a linear solution to the wave equations and a Boussinesq atmosphere, and it may give unrealistic responses under extreme conditions. Nonetheless, the results presented here suggest that diagnostic models, driven by reanalysis data, can be used to improve satellite rainfall estimates in data-sparse regions.

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.

2013-11-01

ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

Convective Systems over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, W.-K.; Shie, C.-L.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Johnson, R. H.; Ciesielski, P. E.

2003-12-01

The two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to simulate two South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) convective periods [18 26 May (prior to and during the monsoon onset) and 2 11 June (after the onset of the monsoon) 1998]. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum are used as the main forcing in governing the GCE model in a semiprognostic manner. The June SCSMEX case has stronger forcing in both temperature and water vapor, stronger low-level vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and larger convective available potential energy (CAPE).The temporal variation of the model-simulated rainfall, time- and domain-averaged heating, and moisture budgets compares well to those diagnostically determined from soundings. However, the model results have a higher temporal variability. The model underestimates the rainfall by 17% to 20% compared to that based on soundings. The GCE model-simulated rainfall for June is in very good agreement with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), precipitation radar (PR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Overall, the model agrees better with observations for the June case rather than the May case.The model-simulated energy budgets indicate that the two largest terms for both cases are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening). These two terms are opposite in sign, however. The model results also show that there are more latent heat fluxes for the May case. However, more rainfall is simulated for the June case. Net radiation (solar heating and longwave cooling) are about 34% and 25%, respectively, of the net condensation (condensation minus evaporation) for the May and June cases. Sensible heat fluxes do not contribute to rainfall in either of the SCSMEX cases. Two types of organized convective systems, unicell (May case) and multicell (June case), are simulated by the model. They are determined by the observed mean U wind shear (unidirectional versus reverse shear profiles above midlevels).Several sensitivity tests are performed to examine the impact of the radiation, microphysics, and large-scale mean horizontal wind on the organization and intensity of the SCSMEX convective systems.

Wind, rain and soil erosion rates on bare and plant covered agriculture plots at the experimental station of El Teularet -Sierra de Enguera, Eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, A.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Iserloh, Th.

2012-04-01

Soil erosion is being scientifically researched for more tan one century, but there is some knowledge lacks that should be researched. Within the factors of the soil erosion wind and rain were studied, but little is know about the impact of the combination of both. Soil erosion by wind was mainly studied on drylands and agriculture land (Sterk and Spaan, 1997; Bielders et al., 2002; Rajot et al., 2003; Zobeck et al., 2003). Soil erosion by water was studied in many ecosystems but it is especially active on agriculture land (Cerdà et al., 2009) and under Mediterranean climatic conditions (Cerdà et al., 2010). The importance of wind on soil erosion is base in the fact that rainstorms occurs with wind, adding a driving component to the falling raindrops. The influence of wind on raindrops is clear, but there is not measurements and there is no information of this influence under field conditions with natural rainfall events.This paper aims to determine the interaction between wind and rain as factors of the soil losses under Mediterranean climatic conditions and different agriculture managements and land uses. Since 2003, the El Teularet-Serra de Enguera Soil Erosion Experimental Station located in Eastern Spain is measuring the soil losses in plots under different land uses and land managements. The station is devoted to study the soil water erosion processes under rain-fed agriculture fields and the rangelands by means of simulated rainfall experiments and plots of different sizes. The soil erosion measure ments are done by means of 13 plots, each of them composed of 5 subplots of 1, 2, 4, 16 and 48 m2 under different land uses and managements. Two plots are covered by two different types of shrubs: Quercus coccifera and Ulex parviflorus, respectively. Three plots reproduce the use of herbicides, one is ploughed, and three plots follow conservation practices (oats and beans with no-tillage, with tillage, and with a vege- tation cover of weeds). Other plots are covered with straw, chipped branches of olive and with a geotextil developed specifically to control erosion on agricultural fields. The Soil Erosion Experimental Station of the El Teularet-Serra de Enguera is located in Eastern Spain. The station is devoted to study the soil water erosion processes under rain-fed agriculture fields and the rangelands. Agriculture is the main source of sedi ments on the mountainous areas of Spain due to the current management. The exper imental station of the El Teularet-Sierra de Enguera is composed also of a meteorological station with tipping-bucket raingauges (0.2 mm), and sensors that measure soil and air moisture and temperature, wind direction and speed and the sun radiation connected to a data-logger that record these data every five minutes. This paper will review the data collected during the period 2004 to 2011 in order to determine if the wind direction and wind speed determined the soil erosion rates. In this way it will be clarified the infliuence of wind on the soil erosion processes.The results will be compared to the measurement collected at the Montesa experimental station devoted to the study of soil erosion on citrus orchards. The experimental setup within the citrus plantation is being supported by the research project CGL2008- 02879/BTE.

Diurnal Patterns of Direct Light Extinction in Two Tropical Forest Canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Silva, C. E.; Kellner, J. R.

2016-12-01

The extent to which net ecosystem production is light-limited in Neotropical forests is poorly understood. This is due in part to our limited knowledge of how light moves through complex canopies to different layers of leaves, and the extent to which structural changes in canopies modify the amount of light absorbed by the landscape to drive photosynthesis. Systematic diurnal changes in solar angle, leaf angle, and wind speed suggest that patterns of light attenuation change over the course of the day in tropical forests. In this study, we characterize the extinction of direct light through the canopies of two forests in Panama using high-resolution, three-dimensional measurements from a small footprint, discrete return airborne laser scanner mounted on the gondola of a canopy crane. We hypothesized that light penetrates deeper into canopies during the middle of the day because changes in leaf angle by light-saturated leaves temporarily reduce effective canopy leaf area, and because greater wind speeds increase sunflecks. Also, we hypothesized that rates of light extinction are greater in the wetter forest that receives less direct sunlight because light saturation in upper leaves is less prevalent. We collected laser measurements with resolution of approximately 5,000 points per square meter of ground every 90 minutes over the course of one day each at Parque Natural Metropolitano (1740 mm annual rainfall) and Parque Nacional San Lorenzo (3300 mm annual rainfall) during the dry season in April, 2016. Using a voxel-based approach, we compared the actual versus potential distance traveled by laser beams through each volume of the canopy. We fit an exponential model to quantify the rate of light extinction. We found that rates of light extinction vary spatially, temporally, and by site. These results indicate that variation in forest structure changes patterns of light attenuation through the canopy over multiple scales.

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2003-01-01

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident seasonality in synoptic-scale wave signals is shown to be a good evidence for this seasonal evolution.

The canopy interception-landslide initiation conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidle, Roy C.; Ziegler, Alan D.

2017-01-01

The interception and smoothing effect of forest canopies on pulses of incident rainfall and its delivery to the soil has been suggested as a factor in moderating peak pore water pressure in soil mantles, thus reducing the risk of shallow landslides. Here we provide 3 years of rainfall and throughfall data in a tropical secondary dipterocarp forest characterized by few large trees in northern Thailand, along with selected soil moisture dynamics, to address this issue. Throughfall was an estimated 88 % of rainfall, varying from 86 to 90 % in individual years. Data from 167 events demonstrate that canopy interception was only weakly associated (via a nonlinear relationship) with total event rainfall, but not significantly correlated with duration, mean intensity, or antecedent 2-day precipitation (API2). Mean interception during small events (≤ 35 mm) was 17 % (n = 135 events) compared with only 7 % for large events (> 35 mm; n = 32). Examining small temporal intervals within the largest and highest intensity events that would potentially trigger landslides revealed complex patterns of interception. The tropical forest canopy had little smoothing effect on incident rainfall during the largest events. During events with high peak intensities, high wind speeds, and/or moderate-to-high pre-event wetting, measured throughfall was occasionally higher than rainfall during large event peaks, demonstrating limited buffering. However, in events with little wetting and low-to-moderate wind speed, early event rainfall peaks were buffered by the canopy. As rainfall continued during most large events, there was little difference between rainfall and throughfall depths. A comparison of both rainfall and throughfall depths to conservative mean intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation revealed that throughfall exceeded the threshold in 75 % of the events in which rainfall exceeded the threshold for both wet and dry conditions. Throughfall intensity for the 11 largest events (rainfall = 65-116 mm) plotted near or above the intensity-duration threshold for landslide initiation during wet conditions; 5 of the events were near or above the threshold for dry conditions. Soil moisture responses during large events were heavily and progressively buffered at depths of 1 to 2 m, indicating that the timescale of any short-term smoothing of peak rainfall inputs (i.e., ≤ 1 h) has little influence on peak pore water pressure at depths where landslides would initiate in this area. Given these findings, we conclude that canopy interception would have little effect on mitigating shallow landslide initiation during the types of monsoon rainfall conditions in this and similar tropical secondary forest sites.

Determination of inorganic particulates: (cationic, anionic and heavy metals) in the atmosphere of some areas in Bahrain during the Gulf crisis in 1991

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali-Mohamed, Ahmed Y.; Matter, Haifa A.

Inorganic particulate matter was sampled weekly during the period March-May, 1991 at different sites at height of ˜6-9 m above the ground level. Deposited aerosols were chemically analyzed and a comparison was made between these sites. The percentage of tarry matter deposited on the airborne particulate matter was found to be 40% during the Gulf crisis compared to 5% prior to Gulf war (1985/86). Heavy metal analysis are also reported. The results were influenced differently by some atmospheric parameters such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, pressure and wind speed/direction.

Classification of rainfall events for weather forecasting purposes in andean region of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suárez Hincapié, Joan Nathalie; Romo Melo, Liliana; Vélez Upegui, Jorge Julian; Chang, Philippe

2016-04-01

This work presents a comparative analysis of the results of applying different methodologies for the identification and classification of rainfall events of different duration in meteorological records of the Colombian Andean region. In this study the work area is the urban and rural area of Manizales that counts with a monitoring hydro-meteorological network. This network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations, this network is composed of forty-five (45) strategically located stations where automatic weather stations record seven climate variables: air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, rainfall, solar radiation and barometric pressure. All this information is sent wirelessly every five (5) minutes to a data warehouse located at the Institute of Environmental Studies-IDEA. With obtaining the series of rainfall recorded by the hydrometeorological station Palogrande operated by the National University of Colombia in Manizales (http://froac.manizales.unal.edu.co/bodegaIdea/); it is with this information that we proceed to perform behavior analysis of other meteorological variables, monitored at surface level and that influence the occurrence of such rainfall events. To classify rainfall events different methodologies were used: The first according to Monjo (2009) where the index n of the heavy rainfall was calculated through which various types of precipitation are defined according to the intensity variability. A second methodology that permitted to produce a classification in terms of a parameter β introduced by Rice and Holmberg (1973) and adapted by Llasat and Puigcerver, (1985, 1997) and the last one where a rainfall classification is performed according to the value of its intensity following the issues raised by Linsley (1977) where the rains can be considered light, moderate and strong fall rates to 2.5 mm / h; from 2.5 to 7.6 mm / h and above this value respectively for the previous classifications. The main contribution which is done with this research is the obtainment elements to optimize and to improve the spatial resolution of the results obtained with mesoscale models such as the Weather Research & Forecasting Model- WRF, used in Colombia for the purposes of weather forecasting and that in addition produces other tools used in current issues such as risk management.

Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, U.; Christoph, M.; Pinto, J. G.; Corte-Real, J.

1999-03-01

The relationship between winter (DJF) rainfall over Portugal and the variable large scale circulation is addressed. It is shown that the poles of the sea level pressure (SLP) field variability associated with rainfall variability are shifted about 15° northward with respect to those used in standard definitions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is suggested that the influence of NAO on rainfall dominantly arises from the associated advection of humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall is also related to different aspects of baroclinic wave activity, the variability of the latter quantity in turn being largely dependent on the NAO.A negative NAO index (leading to increased westerly surface geostrophic winds into Portugal) is associated with an increased number of deep (ps<980 hPa) surface lows over the central North Atlantic and of intermediate (980

Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig D.; van der Kamp, Garth; Arnold, Lauren; Schmidt, Randy

2017-10-01

Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter) has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2) varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE), bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

A wood-strand material for wind erosion control: effects on total sediment loss, PM10 vertical flux, and PM10 loss.

PubMed

Copeland, N S; Sharratt, B S; Wu, J Q; Foltz, R B; Dooley, J H

2009-01-01

Fugitive dust from eroding land poses risks to environmental quality and human health, and thus, is regulated nationally based on ambient air quality standards for particulate matter with mean aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10) established in the Clean Air Act. Agricultural straw has been widely used for rainfall-induced erosion control; however, its performance for wind erosion mitigation has been less studied, in part because straw is mobile at moderate wind velocities. A wood-based long-strand material has been developed for rainfall-induced erosion control and has shown operational promise for control of wind-induced erosion and dust emissions from disturbed sites. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of both agricultural straw and wood-strand materials in controlling wind erosion and fugitive dust emissions under laboratory conditions. Wind tunnel tests were conducted to compare wood strands of several geometries to agricultural wheat straw and bare soil in terms of total sediment loss, PM10 vertical flux, and PM10 loss. Results indicate that the types of wood strands tested are stable at wind speeds of up to 18 m s(-1), while wheat straw is only stable at speeds of up to 6.5 m s(-1). Wood strands reduced total sediment loss and PM10 emissions by 90% as compared to bare soil across the range of wind speeds tested. Wheat straw did not reduce total sediment loss for the range of speeds tested, but did reduce PM10 emissions by 75% compared to a bare soil at wind speeds of up to 11 m s(-1).

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite observations of rainfall effect on sea surface salinity in the waters adjacent to Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Chung-Ru; Hsu, Po-Chun; Lin, Chen-Chih; Huang, Shih-Jen

2017-10-01

Changes of oceanic salinity are highly related to the variations of evaporation and precipitation. To understand the influence of rainfall on the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the waters adjacent to Taiwan, satellite remote sensing data from the year of 2012 to 2014 are employed in this study. The daily rain rate data obtained from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Microwave Imager (TRMM/TMI), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), and WindSat Polarimetric Radiometer. The SSS data was derived from the measurements of radiometer instruments onboard the Aquarius satellite. The results show the average values of SSS in east of Taiwan, east of Luzon and South China Sea are 33.83 psu, 34.05 psu, and 32.84 psu, respectively, in the condition of daily rain rate higher than 1 mm/hr. In contrast to the rainfall condition, the average values of SSS are 34.07 psu, 34.26 psu, and 33.09 psu in the three areas, respectively at no rain condition (rain rate less than 1 mm/hr). During the cases of heavy rainfall caused by spiral rain bands of typhoon, the SSS is diluted with an average value of -0.78 psu when the average rain rate is higher than 4 mm/hr. However, the SSS was increased after temporarily decreased during the typhoon cases. A possible reason to explain this phenomenon is that the heavy rainfall caused by the spiral rain bands of typhoon may dilute the sea surface water, but the strong winds can uplift the higher salinity of subsurface water to the sea surface.

Spatial Dependence of the Relationship between Rainfall and Outgoing Longwave Radiation in the Tropical Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jung-Moon; Carton, James A.

1988-10-01

We develop a Spatially dependent formula to estimate rainfall from satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and the height of the base of the trade-wind inversion. This formula has been constructed by comparing rainfall records from twelve islands in the tropical Atlantic with 11 years of OLR data. Zonal asymmetries due to the differing cloud types in the eastern and western Atlantic and the presence of Saharan sand in the cast are included.The climatological winter and summer rainfall derived from the above formula concurs with ship observations described by Dorman and Bourke. However, during the spring and fall, OLR-derived rainfall is higher than observations by 2-4 mm day1 in the intertropical convergence zone. The largest discrepancy occurs during the fall in the region west of 28°W. Interannual anomalies of rainfall computed using this technique are large enough to cause potentially important changes in ocean surface salinity.

Spatial averaging of oceanic rainfall variability using underwater sound: Ionian Sea rainfall experiment 2004.

PubMed

Nystuen, Jeffrey A; Amitai, Eyal; Anagnostou, Emmanuel N; Anagnostou, Marios N

2008-04-01

An experiment to evaluate the inherent spatial averaging of the underwater acoustic signal from rainfall was conducted in the winter of 2004 in the Ionian Sea southwest of Greece. A mooring with four passive aquatic listeners (PALs) at 60, 200, 1000, and 2000 m was deployed at 36.85 degrees N, 21.52 degrees E, 17 km west of a dual-polarization X-band coastal radar at Methoni, Greece. The acoustic signal is classified into wind, rain, shipping, and whale categories. It is similar at all depths and rainfall is detected at all depths. A signal that is consistent with the clicking of deep-diving beaked whales is present 2% of the time, although there was no visual confirmation of whale presence. Co-detection of rainfall with the radar verifies that the acoustic detection of rainfall is excellent. Once detection is made, the correlation between acoustic and radar rainfall rates is high. Spatial averaging of the radar rainfall rates in concentric circles over the mooring verifies the larger inherent spatial averaging of the rainfall signal with recording depth. For the PAL at 2000 m, the maximum correlation was at 3-4 km, suggesting a listening area for the acoustic rainfall measurement of roughly 30-50 km(2).

Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

2017-10-01

The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

Based on the rainfall system platform raindrops research and analysis of pressure loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Gang; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

With the rapid development of China’s military career, land, sea and air force all services and equipment of modern equipment need to be in the rain test, and verify its might suffer during transportation, storage or use a different environment temperature lower water or use underwater, the water is derived from the heavy rain, the wind and rain, sprinkler system, splash water, water wheel, a violent shock waves or use underwater, etcTest the product performance and quality, under the condition of rainfall system platform in the process of development, how to control the raindrops pressure loss becomes the key to whether the system can simulate the real rainfall [1], this paper is according to the rainfall intensity, nozzle flow resistance, meet water flow of rain pressure loss calculation and analysis, and system arrangement of the optimal solution of rainfall is obtained [2].

Identification of anomalous motion of thunderstorms using daily rainfall fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Moral, Anna; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Rigo, Tomeu

2016-04-01

Adverse weather phenomena in Catalonia (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) is commonly associated to heavy rains, large hail, strong winds, and/or tornados, all of them caused by thunderstorms. In most of the cases with adverse weather, thunderstorms vary sharply their trajectories in a concrete moment, changing completely the motion directions that have previously followed. Furthermore, it is possible that a breaking into several cells may be produced, or, in the opposite, it can be observed a joining of different thunderstorms into a bigger system. In order to identify the main features of the developing process of thunderstorms and the anomalous motions that these may follow in some cases, this contribution presents a classification of the events using daily rainfall fields, with the purpose of distinguishing quickly anomalous motion of thunderstorms. The methodology implemented allows classifying the daily rainfall fields in three categories by applying some thresholds related with the daily precipitation accumulated values and their extension: days with "no rain", days with "potentially convective" rain and days with "non-potentially convective" rain. Finally, for those "potentially convective" daily rainfall charts, it also allows a geometrical identification and classification of all the convective structures into "ellipse" and "non-ellipse", obtaining then the structures with "normal" or "anomalous" motion pattern, respectively. The work is focused on the period 2008-2015, and presents some characteristics of the rainfall behaviour in terms of the seasonal distribution of convective rainfall or the geographic variability. It shows that convective structures are mainly found during late spring and summer, even though they can be recorded in any time of the year. Consequently, the maximum number of convective structures with anomalous motion is recorded between July and November. Furthermore, the contribution shows the role of the orography of Catalonia in the development of convective structures. This work has been developed in the framework of the Spanish project HOPE.

NASA Planetary Visualization Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogan, P.; Kim, R.

2004-12-01

NASA World Wind allows one to zoom from satellite altitude into any place on Earth, leveraging the combination of high resolution LandSat imagery and SRTM elevation data to experience Earth in visually rich 3D, just as if they were really there. NASA World Wind combines LandSat 7 imagery with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data, for a dramatic view of the Earth at eye level. Users can literally fly across the world's terrain from any location in any direction. Particular focus was put into the ease of usability so people of all ages can enjoy World Wind. All one needs to control World Wind is a two button mouse. Additional guides and features can be accessed though a simplified menu. Navigation is automated with single clicks of a mouse as well as the ability to type in any location and automatically zoom to it. NASA World Wind was designed to run on recent PC hardware with the same technology used by today's 3D video games. NASA World Wind delivers the NASA Blue Marble, spectacular true-color imagery of the entire Earth at 1-kilometer-per-pixel. Using NASA World Wind, you can continue to zoom past Blue Marble resolution to seamlessly experience the extremely detailed mosaic of LandSat 7 data at an impressive 15-meters-per-pixel resolution. NASA World Wind also delivers other color bands such as the infrared spectrum. The NASA Scientific Visualization Studio at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has produced a set of visually intense animations that demonstrate a variety of subjects such as hurricane dynamics and seasonal changes across the globe. NASA World Wind takes these animations and plays them directly on the world. The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) produces a set of time relevant planetary imagery that's updated every day. MODIS catalogs fires, floods, dust, smoke, storms and volcanic activity. NASA World Wind produces an easily customized view of this information and marks them directly on the globe. When one of these color coded markers are clicked, it downloads the full image and displays it in the full context of its location on Earth. MODIS images are publication quality material at resolutions up to 250-meters-per-pixel. NASA World Wind provides a full catalog of countries, capitals, counties, cities, towns, and even historical references. The names appear dynamically, increasing in number as the user zooms in. World Wind is capable of browsing through and displaying GLOBE data based on any date one wishes planetary data for. That means one can download today's (or any previous day's) temperature across the world, or rainfall, barometric pressure, cloud cover, or even the GLOBE students' global distribution of collected data. This program is free and available for further development via the NASA Open Source Agreement guidelines.

Aeolian sediment transport on a beach: Surface moisture, wind fetch, and mean transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, B. O.; Davidson-Arnott, R. G. D.; Hesp, P. A.; Namikas, S. L.; Ollerhead, J.; Walker, I. J.

2009-04-01

Temporal and spatial changes in wind speed, wind direction, and moisture content are ubiquitous across sandy coastal beaches. Often these factors interact in unknown ways to create complexity that confounds our ability to model sediment transport at any point across the beach as well as our capacity to predict sediment delivery into the adjacent foredunes. This study was designed to measure wind flow and sediment transport over a beach and foredune at Greenwich Dunes, Prince Edward Island National Park, with the express purpose of addressing these complex interactions. Detailed measurements are reported for one stormy day, October 11, 2004, during which meteorological conditions were highly variable. Wind speed ranged from 4 ms - 1 to over 20 ms - 1 , wind direction was highly oblique varying between 60° and 85° from shore perpendicular, and moisture content of the sand surface ranged from a minimum of about 3% (by mass) to complete saturation depending on precipitation, tidal excursion, and storm surge that progressively inundated the beach. The data indicate that short-term variations (i.e., minutes to hours) in sediment transport across this beach arise predominantly because of short-term changes in wind speed, as is expected, but also because of variations in wind direction, precipitation intensity, and tide level. Even slight increases in wind speed are capable of driving more intense saltation events, but this relationship is mediated by other factors on this characteristically narrow beach. As the angle of wind approach becomes more oblique, the fetch distance increases and allows greater opportunity for the saltation system to evolve toward an equilibrium transport state before reaching the foredunes. Whether the theoretically-predicted maximum rate of transport is ever achieved depends on the character of the sand surface (e.g., grain size, slope, roughness, vegetation, moisture content) and on various attributes of the wind field (e.g., average wind speed, unsteadiness, approach angle, flow compression, boundary layer development). Moisture content is widely acknowledged as an important factor in controlling release of sediment from the beach surface. All other things being equal, the rate of sediment transport over a wet surface is lesser than over a dry surface. On this beach, the moisture effect has two important influences: (a) in a temporal sense, the rate of sediment transport typically decreases in association with rainfall and increases when surface drying takes place; and (b) in a spatio-temporal sense, shoreline excursions associated with nearshore processes (such as wave run-up, storm surge, and tidal excursions) have the effect of constraining the fetch geometry of the beach—i.e., narrowing the width of the beach. Because saturated sand surfaces, such as found in the swash zone, will only reluctantly yield sediments to aeolian entrainment, the available beach surface across which aeolian transport can occur becomes narrower as the sea progressively inundates the beach. Under these constrained conditions, the transport system begins to shut down unless wind angle becomes highly oblique (thereby increasing fetch distance). In this study, maximum sediment transport was usually measured on the mid-beach rather than the upper beach (i.e., closer to the foredunes). This unusual finding is likely because of internal boundary layer development across the beach, which yields a decrease in near-surface wind speed (and hence, transport capacity) in the landward direction. Although widely recognized in the fluid mechanics literature, this decrease in near-surface shear stress as a by-product of a developing boundary layer in the downwind direction has not been adequately investigated in the context of coastal aeolian geomorphology.

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

2014-01-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

The role of mountain precipitation as a drought buffer in Puerto Rico: Assessing natural systems' resilience to change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Clark, K. E.; Van Beusekom, A.; Shanley, J. B.; Torres-Sanchez, A.; Murphy, S. F.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

Like many island and coastal areas, the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico receive orographic precipitation (rain and cloud water), maintaining headwater streamflow and allowing diverse forest ecosystems to thrive. Although rainfall from regional-scale convective systems is greater in volume, multiple lines of evidence (stable isotope tracers; precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity; cloud immersion; regional cloud dynamics; weather analysis) show that trade-wind orographic precipitation contributes significantly to streamflow, soil water, and shallow groundwater. Ceilometer data and time-lapse photography of cloud-immersed conditions at the mountain indicated a seasonally invariant, sustained overnight regime of cloud water precipitation, in addition to the abundant rainfall in the mountains. Rising ocean temperatures and a warming tropical climate lead to questions about persistence of the trade-wind associated orographic precipitation and the resilience of similar mountain ecosystems to change. Projections for Caribbean climate change include amplification of trade winds; less frequent, more intense large convective systems; and a warming ocean. These may have opposing effects on mountain precipitation, increasing uncertainty about processes that mitigate drought. Field studies provide insights regarding these questions. Ceilometer and satellite observations showed cloud base is higher over the mountains than in the surrounding Caribbean region; with the trade-wind inversion cap, further rise in cloud base may produce shallower clouds and reduced precipitation. We analyzed the February-October 2015 drought, characterized by strong El Niño conditions, an absence of tropical storm systems, and reduced convection in easterly waves. Combined δ2H, δ18O and d-excess signatures of streamflow indicated precipitation was derived from shallow convective systems, trade-wind showers and cloud water. During severe drought on the island, streamflow-sustaining rainfall at the mountain station at 640 m persisted, albeit with 19% lower frequency and 52% fewer large (>10 mm) rain events than the 20-year average. Clearly, resilience of the mountain forest ecosystem and of streamflow to drought periods depends on orographic precipitation.

Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

1996-11-01

The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model.The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. Models with resolution T42 performed more poorly than lower-resolution models. The higher resolution models were predominantly spectral. At low resolution, spectral versus gridpoint numerics performed with nearly equal verisimilitude. At low resolution, moisture convergence closure was slightly more preferable than other convective closure techniques. At high resolution, the models that used moisture convergence closure performed very poorly, suggesting that moisture convergence may be problematic for models with horizontal resolution T42.

Rainfall: State of the Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testik, Firat Y.; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

Rainfall: State of the Science offers the most up-to-date knowledge on the fundamental and practical aspects of rainfall. Each chapter, self-contained and written by prominent scientists in their respective fields, provides three forms of information: fundamental principles, detailed overview of current knowledge and description of existing methods, and emerging techniques and future research directions. The book discusses • Rainfall microphysics: raindrop morphodynamics, interactions, size distribution, and evolution • Rainfall measurement and estimation: ground-based direct measurement (disdrometer and rain gauge), weather radar rainfall estimation, polarimetric radar rainfall estimation, and satellite rainfall estimation • Statistical analyses: intensity-duration-frequency curves, frequency analysis of extreme events, spatial analyses, simulation and disaggregation, ensemble approach for radar rainfall uncertainty, and uncertainty analysis of satellite rainfall products The book is tailored to be an indispensable reference for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who study any aspect of rainfall or utilize rainfall information in various science and engineering disciplines.

Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennant, Warren J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.

2002-07-01

Daily station rainfall data in South Africa from 1936 to 1999 are combined into homogeneous rainfall regions using Ward's clustering method. Various rainfall characteristics are calculated for the summer season, defined as December to February. These include seasonal rainfall total, region-average number of station rain days exceeding 1 and 20 mm, region-average of periods between rain days at stations >1 and >20 mm, region-average of wet spell length (sequential days of station rainfall >1 and >20 mm), correlation of daily station rainfall within a region and correlation of seasonal station rainfall anomalies within a region.Rank-ordered rainfall characteristic data generally form an s-shaped curve, and significance testing of discontinuities in these curves suggests that normal rainfall conditions in South Africa consist of a combined middle three quintiles separated from the outer quintiles, rather than the traditional middle tercile.The relationships between the various rainfall characteristics show that seasons with a high total rainfall generally have a higher number of heavy rain days (>20 mm) and not necessarily an increase in light rain days. The length of the period between rain days has a low correlation to season totals, demonstrating that seasons with a high total rainfall may still contain prolonged dry periods. These additional rainfall characteristics are important to end-users, and the analysis undertaken here offers a valuable starting point for seeking physical relationships between rainfall characteristics and the general circulation. Preliminary studies show that the vertical mean wind is related to rainfall characteristics in South Africa. Given that general circulation models capture this part of the circulation adequately, seasonal forecasts of rainfall characteristics become plausible.

Evaluation and prediction of anomalous El Niño generated rainfalls in Peruvian and Ecuadorian coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadier, E.; Rossel, F.; Pouyaud, B.; Raymond, M.

2003-04-01

Coastal regions of Southern Ecuador and Northern Peru rainfalls are well known for their sensitivity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. New monthly rainfall index series were set up from a network of 200 rainfall stations in the Ecuadorian and Peruvian coastal region. Throughout the study, rainfall was modelled keeping a distinction between a "dependent" data set used as a training period and an "independent" portion of the record reserved for validation. Multiple regression models were proposed to predict monthly rainfall in the Guayaquil and in northern coastal Peru, using as predictors, sea surface temperature, precipitation, meridional and zonal wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Then, the resulting equations were used to predict rainfall anomalies in the independent data set. In the Guayaquil zone, there is considerable predictable expertise for the rainy months of the year, the best predictability being assessed from March to May. The multiple linear correlations explain 60 to 82% of the monthly-precipitation variance. Northern coastal Ecuadorian region's preseason rainfall is the most powerful predictor for the rainy season peak in Guayaquil, while the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature is the most powerful predictor for the end of rainy season. KEY WORDS: El Niño, Rainfall Prediction, Ecuador.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon During 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Baker, R.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lau, W.; Baker, R. D.

2004-01-01

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated with a coupled mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed land surface model. The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The simulation with the land surface model captured basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. The sensitivity tests indicated that land surface processes had a greater impact on the simulated rainfall results than that of a small sea surface temperature change during the onset period. In both the 1997 and 1998 cases, the simulations were significantly improved by including the land surface processes. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation; the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern cold front intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat exchange between the land and atmosphere modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat from the detailed land surface model improved the monsoon rainfall and associated wind simulation. The model results will be compared to the simulation of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event. In addition, the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation will be examined.

Evaluating the catching performance of aerodynamic rain gauges through field comparisons and CFD modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollock, Michael; Colli, Matteo; Stagnaro, Mattia; Lanza, Luca; Quinn, Paul; Dutton, Mark; O'Donnell, Greg; Wilkinson, Mark; Black, Andrew; O'Connell, Enda

2016-04-01

Accurate rainfall measurement is a fundamental requirement in a broad range of applications including flood risk and water resource management. The most widely used method of measuring rainfall is the rain gauge, which is often also considered to be the most accurate. In the context of hydrological modelling, measurements from rain gauges are interpolated to produce an areal representation, which forms an important input to drive hydrological models and calibrate rainfall radars. In each stage of this process another layer of uncertainty is introduced. The initial measurement errors are propagated through the chain, compounding the overall uncertainty. This study looks at the fundamental source of error, in the rainfall measurement itself; and specifically addresses the largest of these, the systematic 'wind-induced' error. Snowfall is outside the scope. The shape of a precipitation gauge significantly affects its collection efficiency (CE), with respect to a reference measurement. This is due to the airflow around the gauge, which causes a deflection in the trajectories of the raindrops near the gauge orifice. Computational Fluid-Dynamic (CFD) simulations are used to evaluate the time-averaged airflows realized around the EML ARG100, EML SBS500 and EML Kalyx-RG rain gauges, when impacted by wind. These gauges have a similar aerodynamic profile - a shape comparable to that of a champagne flute - and they are used globally. The funnel diameter of each gauge, respectively, is 252mm, 254mm and 127mm. The SBS500 is used by the UK Met Office and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency. Terms of comparison are provided by the results obtained for standard rain gauge shapes manufactured by Casella and OTT which, respectively, have a uniform and a tapered cylindrical shape. The simulations were executed for five different wind speeds; 2, 5, 7, 10 and 18 ms-1. Results indicate that aerodynamic gauges have a different impact on the time-averaged airflow patterns observed in the vicinity of the collector, compared to the standard gauge shapes. Both the air velocity and the turbulent kinetic energy fields present structures that may improve the interception of particles by the aerodynamic gauge collector. To provide empirical validation, a field-based experimental campaign was undertaken at four UK research stations to compare the results of aerodynamic and conventional gauges, mounted in juxtaposition. The reference measurement is recorded using a rain gauge pit, as specified by the WMO. The results appear to demonstrate how the effect of the wind on rainfall measurements is influenced by the gauge shape and the mounting height. Significant undercatch is observed compared to the reference measurement. Aerodynamic gauges mounted on the ground catch more rainfall than juxtaposed straight-sided gauges, in most instances. This appears to provide some preliminary validation of the CFD model. The indication that an aerodynamic profile improves the gauge catching capability could be confirmed by tracking the hydrometeor trajectories with a Lagrangian method, based on the available set of airflows; and investigating time-dependent aerodynamic features by means of dedicated CFD simulations. Furthermore, wind-tunnel tests could be carried out to provide more robust physical validation of the CFD model.

Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

2015-08-01

The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the teleconnection of Haitian rainfall with synchronous Atlantic and Eastern Pacific SST is at a minimum.

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yang; Huang, Anning; Huang, Danqing; Chen, Fei; Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Fang, Dexian; Zhang, Lujun; Wen, Lijuan

2017-12-01

Based on the hourly gauge-satellite merged precipitation product with the horizontal resolution of 0.1° latitude/longitude during 2008-2014, diurnal variations of the summer precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF), and intensity (PI) with different duration time over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau have been systematically revealed in this study. Results indicate that the eight typical precipitation diurnal patterns identified by the cluster analysis display pronounced regional features among the plateaus, basins, plains, hilly and coastal areas. The precipitation diurnal cycles are significantly affected by the sub-grid terrain fluctuations. The PA, PF and PI of the total rainfall show much more pronounced double diurnal peaks with the sub-grid topography standard deviation (SD) decreased. Meanwhile, the diurnal peaks of PA and PF (PI) strengthen (weaken) with the sub-grid topography SD enhanced. Over the elevated mountain ranges, southeastern hilly and coastal regions, the PA and PF diurnal patterns of the total rainfall generally show predominant late-afternoon peaks, which are closely associated with the short-duration (≤slant 3 h) rainfall. Along the Tibetan Plateau to its downstream, the diurnal peaks of PA, PF and PI for the total rainfall all exhibit obvious eastward phase time delay mainly due to the diurnal evolutions of long-duration (> 6 h) rainfall. However, the 4-6 h rainfall leads to the eastward phase time delay of the total rainfall along the Taihang Mountains to its downstream. Further mechanism analysis suggests that the midnight to morning diurnal evolution of the long-duration rainfall is closely associated with the diurnal variations of the upward branches of thermally driven mountain-plain solenoids and the water vapor transport associated with the accelerated nocturnal southwesterly winds. The late-afternoon peak of the short-duration PA over the southeastern hilly and coastal regions is ascribed to the strong local thermal convections due to the solar heating in afternoon, while the early-evening peak of the short-duration PA over the elevated mountain ranges is significantly contributed by the upward warm-moist wind from the surrounding low-lying basins or plains.

Role of cold surge and MJO on rainfall enhancement over indonesia during east asian winter monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzi, R. R.; Hidayat, R.

2018-05-01

Intensity of precipitation in Indonesia is influenced by convection and propagation of southwest wind. Objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between cold surge and the phenomenon of intra-seasonal climate variability Madden-julian Oscillation (MJO) for affecting precipitation in Indonesia. The data used for identifying the occurrence of cold surge are meridional wind speed data from the ERA-Interim. In addition, this study also used RMM1 and RMM2 index data from Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for identifying MJO events. The results showed that during East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in 15 years (2000-2015), there are 362 cold surge events, 186 MJO events, and 113 cold surge events were associated with MJO events. The spread of cold surge can penetrate to equator and brought mass of water vapor that causes dominant precipitation in the Indonesian Sea up to 50-75% from climatological precipitation during EAWM. The MJO convection activity that moves from west to east also increases precipitation, but the distribution of rainfall is wider than cold surge, especially in Eastern Indonesia. MJO and cold surge simultaneously can increase rainfall over 100-150% in any Indonesian region that affected by MJO and cold surge events. The mechanism of heavy rainfall is illustrated by high activity of moisture transport in areas such as Java Sea and coastal areas of Indonesia.

A 31-day battery-operated recording weather station.

Treesearch

Richard J. Barney

1972-01-01

The battery-powered recording weather station measures and records wet bulb temperature, dry bulb temperature, wind travel, and rainfall for 31 days. Assembly procedures and cost of supplies and components are discussed.

Responses of aeolian desertification to a range of climate scenarios in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xunming; Hua, Ting; Ma, Wenyong

2016-06-01

Aeolian desertification plays an important role in earth-system processes and ecosystems, and has the potential to greatly impact global food production. The occurrence of aeolian desertification has traditionally been attributed to increases in wind speed and temperature and decreases in rainfall. In this study, by integrating the aeolian desertification monitoring data and climate and vegetation indices, we found that although aeolian desertification is influenced by complex climate patterns and human activities, increases in rainfall and temperature and decreases in wind speed may not be the key factors of aeolian desertification controls in some regions of China. Our results show that, even when modern technical approaches are used, different approaches to desertification need to be applied to account for regional differences. These results have important implications for future policy decisions on how best to combat desertification.

Influence of Environmental Factors and Human Activity on the Presence of Salmonella Serovars in a Marine Environment

PubMed Central

Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Saco, Montserrat; de Novoa, Jacobo; Perez-Piñeiro, Pelayo; Peiteado, Jesus; Lozano-Leon, Antonio; Garcia-Martin, Oscar

2004-01-01

The temporal and spatial distribution of Salmonella contamination in the coastal waters of Galicia (northwestern Spain) relative to contamination events with different environmental factors (temperature, wind, hours of sunlight, rainfall, and river flow) were investigated over a 4-year period. Salmonellae were isolated from 127 of 5,384 samples of molluscs and seawater (2.4%), and no significant differences (P < 0.05) between isolates obtained in different years were observed. The incidence of salmonellae was significantly higher in water column samples (2.9%) than in those taken from the marine benthos (0.7%). Of the 127 strains of Salmonella isolated, 20 different serovars were identified. Salmonella enterica serovar Senftenberg was the predominant serovar, being represented by 54 isolates (42.5%), followed by serovar Typhimurium (19 isolates [15%]) and serovar Agona (12 isolates [9.4%]). Serovar Senftenberg was detected at specific points on the coast and could not be related to any of the environmental parameters analyzed. All serovars except Salmonella serovar Senftenberg were found principally in the southern coastal areas close to the mouths of rivers, and their incidence was associated with high southwestern wind and rainfall. Using multiple logistic regression analysis models, the prevalence of salmonellae was best explained by environmental parameters on the day prior to sampling. Understanding this relationship may be useful for the control of molluscan shellfish harvests, with wind and rainfall serving as triggers for closure. PMID:15066800

Meteorological factors affecting the sudden decline in Lake Urmia's water level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkian, Foroozan; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Ziaie, Bahareh

2018-01-01

Lake Urmia, in northwest Iran, is the second most saline lake in the world. During the past two decades, the level of water has markedly decreased. In this paper, climate of the lake region is investigated by using data from four meteorological stations near the lake. The data include climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, number of rain days, and evaporation. Climate around the lake is examined by way of climate classification in the periods before and after the reduction in water level. Rainfall in the lake catchment is also evaluated using both gauge and satellite data. The results show a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation and wind speed and an increasing trend in annual average temperature and sunshine hours at the four stations. Precipitation and wind speed have decreased by 37 mm and 2.7 m/s, respectively, and the mean annual temperature and sunshine hours have increased by 1.4 °C and 41.6 days, respectively, over these six decades. Only the climate of the Tabriz region is seen to have significantly changed, going from semiarid to arid. Gauge records and satellite data show a large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall since 1995. The correlation between rainfall and year-to-year changes in lake level is 0.69 over the period 1965 to 2010. The relationship is particularly strong from the early 1990s to 2005. This suggests that precipitation has played an important role in the documented decline of the lake.

Continental Tele-connections of ET and Precipitation: Tractable Models, Viable Management, and Potential Monitoring.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selker, J. S.; Higgins, C. W.; Tai, L. C. M.

2014-12-01

The linkage between large-scale manipulation of land cover and resulting patterns of precipitation has been a long-standing problem. For example, what is the impact of the Columbia River project's 2,700 km^2 irrigated area (applying approximately 300 m^3/s) on the down-wind continental rainfall in North America? Similarly, can we identify places on earth where planting large-scale runoff-reducing forests might increase down-wind precipitation, thus leading to magnified carbon capture? In this talk we present an analytical Lagrangian framework for the prediction of incremental increases in down-wind precipitation due to land surface evaporation and transpiration. We compare these predictions to recently published rainfall recycling values from the literature. Focus is on the Columbia basin (Pacific Northwest of hte USA), with extensions to East Africa. We further explore the monitoring requirements for verification of any such impact, and see if the planned TAHMO African Observatory (TAHMO.org) has the potential to document any such processes over the 25-year and 1,000 km scales.

Interdecadal Change in SST Anomalies Associated with Winter Rainfall over South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liantong, Z.

2012-04-01

The present study investigates the interdecadal change in winter (January-February-March, or "JFM") rainfall over South China and in South China JFM rainfall-sea surface temperature (SST) relationship by using station observations for the period of 1958-2002, the Met Office Hadley Center's SST data for the period of 1900-2008, and the ERA-40 re-analysis for the period of 1958-2002. It is found that the relationship between South China JFM rainfall and SST experienced an obvious interdecadal change around the year 1978. The analyses show that the JFM rainfall anomalies during 1960-1977 and 1978-2002 were closely associated with the South China Sea (SCS) SST and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. Moreover, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea for positive SCS SST anomaly years during 1960-1977, and for El Niño years during 1978-2002, respectively. These wind anomalies, which are associated with the enhancement of the western Pacific subtropical high, transport more moisture into South China, favoring increases in rainfall. KEY WORDS: ENSO; SCS SST; South China winter rainfall, western Pacific subtropical high.

A Broadband Microwave Radiometer Technique at X-band for Rain and Drop Size Distribution Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, R.

2005-01-01

Radiometric brightess temperatures below about 12 GHz provide accurate estimates of path attenuation through precipitation and cloud water. Multiple brightness temperature measurements at X-band frequencies can be used to estimate rainfall rate and parameters of the drop size distribution once correction for cloud water attenuation is made. Employing a stratiform storm model, calculations of the brightness temperatures at 9.5, 10 and 12 GHz are used to simulate estimates of path-averaged median mass diameter, number concentration and rainfall rate. The results indicate that reasonably accurate estimates of rainfall rate and information on the drop size distribution can be derived over ocean under low to moderate wind speed conditions.

Automated Statistical Forecast Method to 36-48H ahead of Storm Wind and Dangerous Precipitation at the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2009-09-01

Development of successful method of forecast of storm winds, including squalls and tornadoes and heavy rainfalls, that often result in human and material losses, could allow one to take proper measures against destruction of buildings and to protect people. Well-in-advance successful forecast (from 12 hours to 48 hour) makes possible to reduce the losses. Prediction of the phenomena involved is a very difficult problem for synoptic till recently. The existing graphic and calculation methods still depend on subjective decision of an operator. Nowadays in Russia there is no hydrodynamic model for forecast of the maximal precipitation and wind velocity V> 25m/c, hence the main tools of objective forecast are statistical methods using the dependence of the phenomena involved on a number of atmospheric parameters (predictors). Statistical decisive rule of the alternative and probability forecast of these events was obtained in accordance with the concept of "perfect prognosis" using the data of objective analysis. For this purpose the different teaching samples of present and absent of this storm wind and rainfalls were automatically arranged that include the values of forty physically substantiated potential predictors. Then the empirical statistical method was used that involved diagonalization of the mean correlation matrix R of the predictors and extraction of diagonal blocks of strongly correlated predictors. Thus for these phenomena the most informative predictors were selected without loosing information. The statistical decisive rules for diagnosis and prognosis of the phenomena involved U(X) were calculated for choosing informative vector-predictor. We used the criterion of distance of Mahalanobis and criterion of minimum of entropy by Vapnik-Chervonenkis for the selection predictors. Successful development of hydrodynamic models for short-term forecast and improvement of 36-48h forecasts of pressure, temperature and others parameters allowed us to use the prognostic fields of those models for calculations of the discriminant functions in the nodes of the grid 150x150km and the values of probabilities P of dangerous wind and thus to get fully automated forecasts. In order to change to the alternative forecast the author proposes the empirical threshold values specified for this phenomenon and advance period 36 hours. In the accordance to the Pirsey-Obukhov criterion (T), the success of these automated statistical methods of forecast of squalls and tornadoes to 36 -48 hours ahead and heavy rainfalls in the warm season for the territory of Italy, Spain and Balkan countries is T = 1-a-b=0,54: 0,78 after author experiments. A lot of examples of very successful forecasts of summer storm wind and heavy rainfalls over the Italy and Spain territory are submitted at this report. The same decisive rules were applied to the forecast of these phenomena during cold period in this year too. This winter heavy snowfalls in Spain and in Italy and storm wind at this territory were observed very often. And our forecasts are successful.

The role of external forcing and Pacific trade winds in recent changes of the global climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Andrew; Gastineau, Guillaume; Khodri, Myriam

2017-04-01

The Pacific trade winds experienced an unprecedented strengthening since the mid 1990s. Several studies have proposed that the increased Pacific trade winds were associated with the reduced rate of global mean surface temperature warming in the first decade of the 21st century, as well as far-reaching atmospheric teleconnections. We designed a set of ensemble partial coupling experiments using the IPSL-CM5A-LR coupled model that allow us to cleanly distinguish the influence of Pacific trade wind variability from that of external forcing over the past few decades. In this study, we quantify the respective impacts of these processes on surface temperature, ocean heat content, and atmospheric teleconnections. We designed two ensembles of coupled simulations using partial coupling with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to separate the Pacific internal variability and that of external radiative forcing. We prescribe surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific (20°S to 20°N) from 1979-2014 in two ensembles of 30 members each: (1) Prescribed climatological model wind stress, which allows us to estimate the influence of external radiative forcing in the absence of variability within the Pacific Ocean. (2) Wind stress anomalies from ERA-Interim reanalysis added to the model wind stress climatology, which accounts for the effects of both external radiative forcing and the wind stress variability. We find that the observed wind stress anomalies account for the pattern of eastern tropical Pacific cooling when compared to the climatology experiment, so that it resembles the observed trends from 1992-2011. The tropical Pacific shows dominant heat uptake in the western Pacific above the 20°C isotherm, which contributed to slow the warming of tropical SST during the 2000s. The trade wind increase is associated with a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation, and zonal shifts in tropical rainfall. Despite tropical SST biases which affect the response of tropical rainfall and the location of deep convection, the wind stress anomaly forcing effectively simulates the wave train pattern emanating from the tropical Pacific, and associated extratropical teleconnections such as a weakening of the Aleutian Low and drought in North America.

The local and global climate forcings induced inhomogeneity of Indian rainfall.

PubMed

Nair, P J; Chakraborty, A; Varikoden, H; Francis, P A; Kuttippurath, J

2018-04-16

India is home for more than a billion people and its economy is largely based on agrarian society. Therefore, rainfall received not only decides its livelihood, but also influences its water security and economy. This situation warrants continuous surveillance and analysis of Indian rainfall. These kinds of studies would also help forecasters to better tune their models for accurate weather prediction. Here, we introduce a new method for estimating variability and trends in rainfall over different climate regions of India. The method based on multiple linear regression helps to assess contributions of different remote and local climate forcings to seasonal and regional inhomogeneity in rainfall. We show that the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) variability is governed by Eastern and Central Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation, equatorial zonal winds, Atlantic zonal mode and surface temperatures of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and the North East Monsoon Rainfall variability is controlled by the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic and extratropial oceans. Also, our analyses reveal significant positive trends (0.43 mm/day/dec) in the North West for ISMR in the 1979-2017 period. This study cautions against the significant changes in Indian rainfall in a perspective of global climate change.

Utilising monitoring and modelling of estuarine environments to investigate catchment conditions responsible for stratification events in a typically well-mixed urbanised estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Serena B.; Birch, Gavin F.

2012-10-01

Estuarine health is affected by contamination from stormwater, particularly in highly-urbanised environments. For systems where catchment monitoring is insufficient, novel techniques must be employed to determine the impact of urban runoff on receiving water bodies. In the present work, estuarine monitoring and modelling were successfully employed to determine stormwater runoff volumes and establish an appropriate rainfall/runoff relationship capable of replicating fresh-water discharge due to the full range of precipitation conditions in the Sydney Estuary, Australia. Using estuary response to determine relationships between catchment rainfall and runoff is a widely applicable method and may be of assistance in the study of waterways where monitoring fluvial discharges is not practical or is beyond the capacity of management authorities. For the Sydney Estuary, the SCS-CN method replicated rainfall/runoff and was applied in numerical modelling experiments investigating the hydrodynamic characteristics affecting stratification and estuary recovery following high precipitation. Numerical modelling showed stratification in the Sydney Estuary was dominated by fresh-water discharge. Spring tides and up-estuary winds contributed to mixing and neap tides and down-estuary winds enhanced stratification.

Forcing mechanisms and hydrodynamics in Loch Linnhe, a dynamically wide Scottish estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabe, Berit; Hindson, Jennifer

2017-09-01

Hydrodynamic conditions in Loch Linnhe, a dynamifcally wide estuary on the west coast of Scotland, are primarily influenced by wind forcing, freshwater input, and tides. Winds in the region are orographically steered along the axis of the estuary due to surrounding mountains. A large rainfall catchment area results in a large freshwater inflow into Loch Linnhe which in turn produces low salinity waters at the head of the estuary. This, combined with a connection to the open sea with coastal salinities, leads to salinity gradients in the horizontal and vertical. Even though a range of observational programmes have focussed on Loch Linnhe, the literature still lacks an evaluation of its physical dynamics. Here we present a first description of the hydrodynamics in Loch Linnhe based on observations. Wind stress predominantly influences the surface layer, especially at low frequencies and with a stronger influence than tides during neap tides. The buoyancy-driven flow due to the large river runoff influences the circulation independent of wind stress. Seasonal (spring, autumn) and interannual (2011, 2012) variability of water masses occur especially in the surface layer. Tides are dominated by the semi-diurnal constituent M2 with tidal ellipses aligned in the along-estuary direction and a stronger influence during spring tides compared to wind. An evaluation of dimensionless numbers reveal laterally and vertically sheared exchange flows. Compared to other Scottish estuaries Loch Linnhe is wide enough to be influenced by the Earth's rotation and demonstrates an enhanced freshwater outflow along its north-western coast as the freshwater is diverted to the right in the direction of the flow. These observed patterns are important for the sustainable environmental management of this socio-economically valuable region, e.g. through their relevance to aquaculture pathogen transmission patterns. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of the system is essential for a successful evidence-based marine planning framework.

Effect of land uses and wind direction on the contribution of local sources to airborne pollen.

PubMed

Rojo, Jesús; Rapp, Ana; Lara, Beatriz; Fernández-González, Federico; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2015-12-15

The interpretation of airborne pollen levels in cities based on the contribution of the surrounding flora and vegetation is a useful tool to estimate airborne allergen concentrations and, consequently, to determine the allergy risk for local residents. This study examined the pollen spectrum in a city in central Spain (Guadalajara) and analysed the vegetation landscape and land uses within a radius of 20km in an attempt to identify and locate the origin of airborne pollen and to determine the effect of meteorological variables on pollen emission and dispersal. The results showed that local wind direction was largely responsible for changes in the concentrations of different airborne pollen types. The land uses contributing most to airborne pollen counts were urban green spaces, though only 0.1% of the total surface area studied, and broadleaved forest which covered 5% of the study area. These two types of land use together accounted for 70% of the airborne pollen. Crops, scrubland and pastureland, though covering 80% of the total surface area, contributed only 18.6% to the total pollen count, and this contribution mainly consisted of pollen from Olea and herbaceous plants, including Poaceae, Urticaceae and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae. Pollen from ornamental species were mainly associated with easterly (Platanus), southerly (Cupressaceae) and westerly (Cupressaceae and Platanus) winds from the areas where the city's largest parks and gardens are located. Quercus pollen was mostly transported by winds blowing in from holm-oak stands on the eastern edge of the city. The highest Populus pollen counts were associated with easterly and westerly winds blowing in from areas containing rivers and streams. The airborne pollen counts generally rose with increasing temperature, solar radiation and hours of sunlight, all of which favour pollen release. In contrast, pollen counts declined with increased relative humidity and rainfall, which hinder airborne pollen transport. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationship Between Precipitation Chemistry and Meteorological Parameters at a Urban Site in the North of Queretaro State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Martínez, R.; Hernández, G.; Solis, S.; Torres, M. D.; Padilla, H.; Báez, A.

2010-12-01

A total of 50 wet precipitation samples were collected per event at the Juriquilla site from mid-May 2009 to the end of May 2010. The Juriquilla sampling site was located on the roof of the Geoscience Building, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, at the Juriquilla Campus in the city of Querétaro located at 20°41'58"N and 100°27'28" W, at 1920 meters above sea level (masl). Sampling was done in passive collectors that consisted of a high density polyethylene funnel connected to a 2-liter polyethylene bottle, supported by a rod 1.5 m above the roof. One of the collectors was used to take samples for trace metals. The analysis was done in soluble and insoluble fractions. Al, Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy with a graphite furnace accessory. The other collector was used to measure pH and major ions (SO4-2, Cl-, NO3-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+ and NH4+) in the soluble fractions, because it was assumed that these ions are completely soluble in rainwater. The major ions SO4-2, Cl-, and NO3-, were analyzed by a Varian Model 2010 ion chromatograph; Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+ were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry and NH4+ by a UV spectrophotometer. In this study, synoptic maps were used to analyze the transport of air masses before rainfall, enabling back trajectories to be used to estimate the source region of pollutants. To understand the variety of synoptic weather conditions, data were associated with the corresponding air mass back trajectories calculated by the NOAA HYSPLIT model (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model). Back trajectory models have very simple advection schemes to calculate the previous position of an air parcel by using estimated wind speed and direction for the time period prior to arrival at the selected site. In this study, the origin of the air mass for an event was evaluated by a three-day back-trajectory before arrival to Queretaro. Mass back trajectories were calculated for 1000 and 2000 meters above ground level (MAGL), because winds at these levels should be a good approximation to the mean transport wind, since this pressure level frequently lies near the center of the transport layer. Finally, trajectories were classified by eight different directions according to the directions of the air masses before rainfall.

Rain in the U.S. Midwest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The powerful storms that moved across the U.S. Midwest during the first week of May 2007 brought wind, hail, tornadoes, and drenching rain. This image shows rainfall totals over parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska between May 1 and May 8, based in part on measurements made by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. More than 400 millimeters (15.7 inches) of rain fell over some regions, corresponding with locations where the National Weather Service reported severe weather. A wide swath of red and orange (between 240 and 400 millimeters of rain) arcs in a clockwise direction from western Oklahoma, through central Kansas, and into southeastern Nebraska. The reddish-orange bull's-eye over southeastern Louisiana is evidence of the torrential rains that pounded visitors to the annual New Orleans Jazz Festival. South-central Texas' Edward Plateau was soaked with more than 240 millimeters of rain during the period, as well. From May 4 to May 8, the National Weather Service received approximately 683 reports of severe weather, 140 of which were reports of tornadoes, including the massive F5 tornado that devastated the city of Greensburg, Kansas. Beyond the damaging winds and tornadoes, the torrential rain triggered extensive flooding throughout the Central Plains. On the evening of May 7, flood warnings were in effect from South Dakota to southern Texas, and by May 8, the Hydrologic Information Center reported moderate to major flooding at 53 stream gauge sites in South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Arkansas. The floods could be as severe as the 1993 flood, one of the costliest floods in U.S. history, reported the Associated Press.

Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk.

PubMed

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D; Ferreira, Celso M; Quiring, Steven M

2016-10-01

In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind-related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, J.; Latif, M.

2002-12-01

The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP gradient from the subtropical highs to the equator and a weakening of the trade winds.

The stable isotope amount effect: New insights from NEXRAD echo tops, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Shanley, James B.; Zegarra, Jan Paul; Coplen, Tyler B.

2009-01-01

The stable isotope amount effect has often been invoked to explain patterns of isotopic composition of rainfall in the tropics. This paper describes a new approach, correlating the isotopic composition of precipitation with cloud height and atmospheric temperature using NEXRAD radar echo tops, which are a measure of the maximum altitude of rainfall within the clouds. The seasonal differences in echo top altitudes and their corresponding temperatures are correlated with the isotopic composition of rainfall. These results offer another factor to consider in interpretation of the seasonal variation in isotopic composition of tropical rainfall, which has previously been linked to amount or rainout effects and not to temperature effects. Rain and cloud water isotope collectors in the Luquillo Mountains in northeastern Puerto Rico were sampled monthly for three years and precipitation was analyzed for δ18O and δ2H. Precipitation enriched in 18O and 2H occurred during the winter dry season (approximately December–May) and was associated with a weather pattern of trade wind showers and frontal systems. During the summer rainy season (approximately June–November), precipitation was depleted in 18O and 2H and originated in low pressure systems and convection associated with waves embedded in the prevailing easterly airflow. Rain substantially depleted in 18O and 2H compared to the aforementioned weather patterns occurred during large low pressure systems. Weather analysis showed that 29% of rain input to the Luquillo Mountains was trade wind orographic rainfall, and 30% of rainfall could be attributed to easterly waves and low pressure systems. Isotopic signatures associated with these major climate patterns can be used to determine their influence on streamflow and groundwater recharge and to monitor possible effects of climate change on regional water resources.

Throughfall under a teak plantation in Thailand: a multifactorial analysis on the effects of canopy phenology and meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, N.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Igarashi, Y.; Nanko, K.; Yoshifuji, N.; Tanaka, K.; Chatchai, T.; Suzuki, M.; Kumagai, T.

2014-12-01

Teak (Tectona grandis Linn. f.) plantations cover vast areas throughout Southeast Asia and are of great economic importance. This study has sought to increase our understanding of throughfall inputs under teak by analyzing the abiotic and biotic factors governing throughfall amounts and throughfall ratios in relation to three canopy phenophases (leafless, leafing, and leafed). There is no rain during the brief leaf senescence phenophase. Daily data was available for both throughfall volumes and depths as well as leaf area index. Detailed meteorological data were available in situ every ten minutes. Leveraging this high-resolution field data, we employed boosted regression trees (BRT) analysis to identify the primary controls on throughfall amount and ratio during each of the three canopy phenophases. Whereas throughfall amounts were always dominated by the magnitude of rainfall (as expected), throughfall ratios were governed by a suite of predictor variables during each phenophase. The BRT analysis demonstrated that throughfall ratio in the leafless phase was most influenced (in descending order of importance) by air temperature, rainfall amount, maximum wind speed, and rainfall intensity. Throughfall ratio in the leafed phenophase was dominated by rainfall amount which exerted 54.0% of the relative influence. The leafing phenophase was an intermediate case where rainfall amount, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were most important. Our results highlight the fact that throughfall ratios are differentially influenced by a suite of meteorological variables during leafless, leafing, and leafed phenophases. Abiotic variables (rainfall amount, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and maximum wind speed) trumped leaf area index and stand density in their effect on throughfall ratio. The leafing phenophase, while transitional in nature and short in duration, has a detectable and unique impact on water inputs to teak plantations. Further work is clearly needed to better gauge the importance of the leaf emergence period to the stemflow hydrology and forest biogeochemistry of teak plantations.

A study of the Merritt Island, Florida sea breeze flow regimes and their effect on surface heat and moisture fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubes, M. T.; Cooper, H. J.; Smith, E. A.

1993-01-01

Data collected during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment were analyzed as part of an investigation of the sea breeze in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida. Analysis of near-surface divergence fields shows that the classical 24-hour oscillation in divergence over the island due to the direct sea breeze circulation is frequently disrupted and exhibits two distinct modes: the classical sea breeze pattern and deviations from that pattern. A comparison of clear day surface energy fluxes with fluxes on other days indicates that changes in magnitudes were dominated by the presence or absence of clouds. Non-classical sea breeze days tended to lose more available energy in the morning than classical sea breeze days due to earlier development of small cumulus over the island. A composite storm of surface winds, surface energy fluxes, rainfall, and satellite visible data was constructed. A spectral transmittance over the visible wavelengths for the cloud cover resulting from the composite storm was calculated. It is shown that pre-storm transmittances of 0.8 fall to values near 0.1 as the downdraft moves directly over the site. It is also found that under post-composite storm conditions of continuous clear sky days, 3.5 days are required to evaporate back into the atmosphere the latent heat energy lost to the surface by rainfall.

Prediction model for peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vathsala, H.; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we discuss a data mining application for predicting peninsular Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and propose an algorithm that combine data mining and statistical techniques. We select likely predictors based on association rules that have the highest confidence levels. We then cluster the selected predictors to reduce their dimensions and use cluster membership values for classification. We derive the predictors from local conditions in southern India, including mean sea level pressure, wind speed, and maximum and minimum temperatures. The global condition variables include southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole conditions. The algorithm predicts rainfall in five categories: Flood, Excess, Normal, Deficit and Drought. We use closed itemset mining, cluster membership calculations and a multilayer perceptron function in the algorithm to predict monsoon rainfall in peninsular India. Using Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology data, we found the prediction accuracy of our proposed approach to be exceptionally good.

Application of data mining to the analysis of meteorological data for air quality prediction: A case study in Shenyang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chang; Song, Guojun

2017-08-01

Air pollution is one of the important reasons for restricting the current economic development. PM2.5 which is a vital factor in the measurement of air pollution is defined as a kind of suspended particulate matter with its equivalent diameter less than 25μm, which may enter the alveoli and therefore make a great impact on the human body. Meteorological factors are also one of the main factors affecting the production of PM2.5, therefore, it is essential to establish the model between meteorological factors and PM2.5 for the prediction. Data mining is a promising approach to model PM2.5 change, Shenyang which is one of the most important industrial city in Northeast China with severe air pollutions is set as the case city. Meteorological data (wind direction, wind speed, temperature, humidity, rainfall, etc.) from 2013 to 2015 and PM2.5 concentration data are used for this prediction. As to the requirements of the World Health Organization (WHO), three data mining models, whereby the predictions of PM2.5 are directly generated by the meteorological data. After assessment, the random forest model is appeared to offer better prediction performance than the other two. At last, the accuracy of the generated models are analysed.

Study on the relationship between meteorological conditions and acid rain in mid-eastern Fujian.

PubMed

Lin, C C; Liu, J X; Cai, Y Y; Li, B L; Wang, Z L; Chen, B B

2009-08-01

Based on the acid rain observation data and the contemporaneous historical synoptic charts of Mid-Eastern Fujian during the period of 1991 to 2003, we analyzed the distribution characteristics of acid rain in different seasons, weather types, precipitation grades and wind directions. The results showed that the acid pollution in Mid-Eastern Fujian was still serious. In winter, the precipitation pH value was 4.79, and the acid rain frequency was 60.62% which was twice higher than that in summer. The pH value of warm shear-type precipitation at 850 hPa was 4.79. Nearly half of these precipitations had the problems of acid rain pollution. The acid rain frequency of the inverted trough type was only 26.11% which was the lowest one in all types. There was no marked difference of the acid rain distribution characteristics between ahead-of-trough and behind-the-trough. The precipitation pH values of the five grades were lower than 5.30 and the acid rain frequency changed as an inverted U shape with the increasing of the rainfall. The pH values of precipitations in the eight wind directions were generally below 5.20, and the acid rain frequencies were about 40%.

Measurements of DSD Second Moment Based on Laser Extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lane, John E.; Jones, Linwood; Kasparis, Takis C.; Metzger, Philip

2013-01-01

Using a technique recently developed for estimating the density of surface dust dispersed during a rocket landing, measuring the extinction of a laser passing through rain (or dust in the rocket case) yields an estimate of the 2nd moment of the particle cloud, and rainfall drop size distribution (DSD) in the terrestrial meteorological case. With the exception of disdrometers, instruments that measure rainfall make in direct measurements of the DSD. Most common of these instruments are the rainfall rate gauge measuring the 1 1/3 th moment, (when using a D(exp 2/3) dependency on terminal velocity). Instruments that scatter microwaves off of hydrometeors, such as the WSR-880, vertical wind profilers, and microwave disdrometers, measure the 6th moment of the DSD. By projecting a laser onto a target, changes in brightness of the laser spot against the target background during rain, yield a measurement of the DSD 2nd moment, using the Beer-Lambert law. In order to detect the laser attenuation within the 8-bit resolution of most camera image arrays, a minimum path length is required, depending on the intensity of the rainfall rate. For moderate to heavy rainfall, a laser path length of 100 m is sufficient to measure variations in optical extinction using a digital camera. A photo-detector could replace the camera, for automated installations. In order to spatially correlate the 2nd moment measurements to a collocated disdrometer or tipping bucket, the laser's beam path can be reflected multiple times using mirrors to restrict the spatial extent of the measurement. In cases where a disdrometer is not available, complete DSD estimates can be produced by parametric fitting of DSD model to the 2nd moment data in conjunction with tipping bucket data. In cases where a disdrometer is collocated, the laser extinction technique may yield a significant improvement to insitu disdrometer validation and calibration strategies

Droplet Size Distributions as a function of rainy system type and Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecchini, Micael A.; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Artaxo, Paulo

2014-06-01

This work aims to study typical Droplet Size Distributions (DSDs) for different types of precipitation systems and Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations over the Vale do Paraíba region in southeastern Brazil. Numerous instruments were deployed during the CHUVA (Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: a contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM) Project in Vale do Paraíba campaign, from November 22, 2011 through January 10, 2012. Measurements of CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) and total particle concentrations, along with measurements of rain DSDs and standard atmospheric properties, including temperature, pressure and wind intensity and direction, were specifically made in this study. The measured DSDs were parameterized with a gamma function using the moment method. The three gamma parameters were disposed in a 3-dimensional space, and subclasses were classified using cluster analysis. Seven DSD categories were chosen to represent the different types of DSDs. The DSD classes were useful in characterizing precipitation events both individually and as a group of systems with similar properties. The rainfall regime classification system was employed to categorize rainy events as local convective rainfall, organized convection rainfall and stratiform rainfall. Furthermore, the frequencies of the seven DSD classes were associated to each type of rainy event. The rainfall categories were also employed to evaluate the impact of the CCN concentration on the DSDs. In the stratiform rain events, the polluted cases had a statistically significant increase in the total rain droplet concentrations (TDCs) compared to cleaner events. An average concentration increase from 668 cm- 3 to 2012 cm- 3 for CCN at 1% supersaturation was found to be associated with an increase of approximately 87 m- 3 in TDC for those events. For the local convection cases, polluted events presented a 10% higher mass weighted mean diameter (Dm) on average. For the organized convection events, no significant results were found.

Near-Surface Geophysical Mapping of the Hydrological Response to an Intense Rainfall Event at the Field Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, G.; Vanderlinden, K.; Giraldez, J. V.; Espejo, A. J.; Muriel, J. L.

2009-12-01

Soil moisture plays an important role in a wide variety of biogeochemical fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system and governs the (eco)hydrological response of a catchment to an external forcing such as rainfall. Near-surface electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors that measure the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) provide a fast and non-invasive means for characterizing this response at the field or catchment scale through high-resolution time-lapse mapping. Here we show how ECa maps, obtained before and after an intense rainfall event of 125 mm h-1, elucidate differences in soil moisture patterns and hydrologic response of an experimental field as a consequence of differed soil management. The dryland field (Vertisol) was located in SW Spain and cropped with a typical wheat-sunflower-legume rotation. Both, near-surface and subsurface ECa (ECas and ECad, respectively), were measured using the EM38-DD EMI sensor in a mobile configuration. Raw ECa measurements and Mean Relative Differences (MRD) provided information on soil moisture patterns while time-lapse maps were used to evaluate the hydrologic response of the field. ECa maps of the field, measured before and after the rainfall event showed similar patterns. The field depressions where most of water and sediments accumulated had the highest ECa and MRD values. The SE-oriented soil, which was deeper and more exposed to sun and wind, showed the lowest ECa and MRD. The largest differences raised in the central part of the field where a high ECa and MRD area appeared after the rainfall event as a consequence of the smaller soil depth and a possible subsurface flux concentration. Time-lapse maps of both ECa and MRD were also similar. The direct drill plots showed higher increments of ECa and MRD as a result of the smaller runoff production. Time-lapse ECa increments showed a bimodal distribution differentiating clearly the direct drill from the conventional and minimum tillage plots. However this kind of distribution could not be shown using MRD differences since they come from standardized distributions. Field-extend time-lapse ECa maps can provide useful images of the hydrological response of agricultural fields which can be used to evaluate different soil management strategies or to aid the assessment of biogeochemical fluxes at the field scale.

Fugitive dust mitigation for PM{sub 10} attainment in the western Mojave Desert: Recommendations on revegetation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grantz, D.A.; Vaughn, D.L.; Roberts, E.

1997-12-31

Methods to suppress fugitive dust and associated violations of federal PM{sub 10} standards in the western Mojave Desert, following removal of native vegetation by tillage or overgrazing, have been under investigation by a multi-agency task force for several years. Interim recommendations are now possible for this area of high winds, low rainfall, and mostly arable soil with patchy blowing sand. There can be no guarantee of success in any revegetation program in the desert, but the greatest probability of success in this area can be attained by using the native shrub Atriplex canescens, whether direct seeded or transplanted. No additionalmore » nitrogen should be added, and excess nitrogen should be removed if possible, perhaps by a preliminary cropping of barley. This will itself stabilize the soil surface in the short term. Young plants should be protected from herbivory and the harsh elements by using plastic cones. Irrigation is helpful if available. In areas located near native populations of rabbitbrush annual plant cover should be burned but no tillage or other soil disturbance should be imposed, as this facilitates invasion of annual species, including russian thistle, and prevents establishment of rabbitbrush. In sandy areas, seeding with Indian ricegrass may be more effective than with A. canescens. For immediate, short-term, mitigation of blowing dust, furrowing alone and installation of windfences may be effective. Rainfall exhibits high annual variability in arid regions. Absence of fugitive dust emissions in rainy periods, associated with ground cover by annual vegetation, is unlikely to survive several years of low, but normal, rainfall. It is precisely during those periods when rainfall is adequate that long-term revegetation with shrubs has the best chance of success.« less

Improving precipitation forecast with hybrid 3DVar and time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin

2017-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.

The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-09-01

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

Correlation of spring spore concentrations and meteorological conditions in Tulsa, Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutt, C.; Levetin, E.

Different spore types are abundant in the atmosphere depending on the weather conditions. Ascospores generally follow precipitation, while spore types such as Alternaria and Cladosporium are abundant in dry conditions. This project attempted to correlate fungal spore concentrations with meteorological data from Tulsa, Oklahoma during May 1998 and May 1999. Air samples were collected and analyzed by the 12-traverse method. The spore types included were Cladosporium, Alternaria, Epicoccum, Curvularia, Pithomyces, Drechslera, smut spores, ascospores, basidiospores, and other spores. Weather variables included precipitation levels, temperature, dew point, air pressure, wind speed, wind direction and wind gusts. There were over 242.57 mm of rainfall in May 1999 and only 64.01 mm in May 1998. The most abundant spore types during May 1998 and May 1999 were Cladosporium, ascospores, and basidiospores. Results showed that there were significant differences in the dry-air spora between May 1998 and May 1999. There were twice as many Cladosporium in May 1998 as in May 1999; both ascospores and basidiospores showed little change. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine which meteorological variables influenced spore concentrations. Results showed that there was no single model for all spore types. Different combinations of factors were predictors of concentration for the various fungi examined; however, temperature and dew point seemed to be the most important meteorological factors.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Rain Impact Model Assessment of Near-Surface Salinity Stratification Following Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drushka, K.; Jones, L.; Jacob, M. M.; Asher, W.; Santos-Garcia, A.

2016-12-01

Rainfall over oceans produces a layer of fresher surface water, which can have a significant effect on the exchanges between the surface and the bulk mixed layer and also on satellite/in-situ comparisons. For satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) measurements, the standard is the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), but there is a significant difference between the remote sensing sampling depth of 0.01 m and the typical range of 5-10 m of in-situ instruments. Under normal conditions the upper layer of the ocean is well mixed and there is uniform salinity; however, under rainy conditions, there is a dilution of the near-surface salinity that mixes downward by diffusion and by mechanical mixing (gravity waves/wind speed). This significantly modifies the salinity gradient in the upper 1-2 m of the ocean, but these transient salinity stratifications dissipate in a few hours, and the upper layer becomes well mixed at a slightly fresher salinity. Based upon research conducted within the NASA/CONAE Aquarius/SAC-D mission, a rain impact model (RIM) was developed to estimate the change in SSS due to rainfall near the time of the satellite observation, with the objective to identify the probability of salinity stratification. RIM uses HYCOM (which does not include the short-term rain effects) and a NOAA global rainfall product CMORPH to model changes in the near-surface salinity profile in 0.5 h increments. Based upon SPURS-2 experimental near-surface salinity measurements with rain, this paper introduces a term in the RIM model that accounts for the effect of wind speed in the mechanical mixing, which translates into a dynamic vertical diffusivity; whereby a Generalized Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is used to investigate the response to rain events of the upper few meters of the ocean. The objective is to determine how rain and wind forcing control the thickness, stratification strength, and lifetime of fresh lenses and to quantify the impacts of rain-formed fresh lenses on the fresh bias in satellite retrievals of salinity. Results will be presented of comparisons of RIM measurements at depth of a few meters with measurements from in-situ salinity instruments. Also, analytical results will be shown, which assess the accuracy of RIM salinity profiles under a variety of rain rate, wind/wave conditions.

Role of mixed precipitating cloud systems on the typhoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, C. J.; Krishna Reddy, K.; Lai, H. C.; Yang, S. S.

2010-01-01

L-band wind profiler data are utilized to diagnose the vertical structure of the typhoon precipitating cloud systems in Taiwan. For several typhoons, a pronounced bright band (BB) around 5 km is commonly observed from the observation. Since strong convection within typhoon circulation may disturb and/or disrupt the melting layer, the BB shall not appear persistently. Hence, an understanding of the vertical structure of the BB region is important because it holds extensive hydrometeors information on the type of precipitation and its variability. Wind profiler observational results suggest that the mixture of convective and stratiform (embedded type) clouds are mostly associated with typhoons. In the case of one typhoon, BB is appeared around 5.5 km with embedded precipitation and also BB height of 1 km higher than ordinary showery precipitation. This is evident from the long-term observations of wind profiler and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. The Doppler velocity profiles show hydrometers (ice/snow) at 6 km but liquid below 5 km for typhoons and 4 km for showery precipitation. In the BB region the melting particles accelerations of 5.8 ms-1 km-1 and 3.2 ms-1 km-1 are observed for typhoon and showery precipitation, respectively.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

The "Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, T. L.; Rosenfeld, D.; Kim, K.; Hahnenberger, M.

2006-05-01

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue--Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura

2006-01-01

Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probabilitymore » that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24- hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.« less

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

The Green Ocean: Precipitation Insights from the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment

DOE PAGES

Wang, Die; Giangrande, Scott E.; Bartholomew, Mary Jane; ...

2018-02-07

This study summarizes the precipitation properties collected during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign near Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil. Precipitation breakdowns, summary radar rainfall relationships and self-consistency concepts from a coupled disdrometer and radar wind profiler measurements are presented. The properties of Amazon cumulus and associated stratiform precipitation are discussed, including segregations according to seasonal (Wet/Dry regime) variability, cloud echo-top height and possible aerosol influences on the apparent oceanic characteristics of the precipitation drop size distributions. Overall, we observe that the Amazon precipitation straddles behaviors found during previous U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurements program (ARM) tropical deployments, with distributions favoringmore » higher concentrations of smaller drops than ARM continental examples. Oceanic type precipitation characteristics are predominantly observed during the Amazon Wet seasons. Finally, an exploration of the controls on Wet season precipitation properties reveals that wind direction, as compared with other standard radiosonde thermodynamic parameters or aerosol count/regime classifications performed at the ARM site, provides a good indicator for those Wet season Amazon events having an oceanic character for their precipitation drop size distributions.« less

The Green Ocean: Precipitation Insights from the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Die; Giangrande, Scott E.; Bartholomew, Mary Jane

This study summarizes the precipitation properties collected during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign near Manaus in central Amazonia, Brazil. Precipitation breakdowns, summary radar rainfall relationships and self-consistency concepts from a coupled disdrometer and radar wind profiler measurements are presented. The properties of Amazon cumulus and associated stratiform precipitation are discussed, including segregations according to seasonal (Wet/Dry regime) variability, cloud echo-top height and possible aerosol influences on the apparent oceanic characteristics of the precipitation drop size distributions. Overall, we observe that the Amazon precipitation straddles behaviors found during previous U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurements program (ARM) tropical deployments, with distributions favoringmore » higher concentrations of smaller drops than ARM continental examples. Oceanic type precipitation characteristics are predominantly observed during the Amazon Wet seasons. Finally, an exploration of the controls on Wet season precipitation properties reveals that wind direction, as compared with other standard radiosonde thermodynamic parameters or aerosol count/regime classifications performed at the ARM site, provides a good indicator for those Wet season Amazon events having an oceanic character for their precipitation drop size distributions.« less

Estimation of Rainfall Rates from Passive Microwave Remote Sensing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Awdhesh Kumar

Rainfall rates have been estimated using the passive microwave and visible/infrared remote sensing techniques. Data of September 14, 1978 from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board SEA SAT-A and the Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) on board GOES-W (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite - West) was obtained and analyzed for rainfall rate retrieval. Microwave brightness temperatures (MBT) are simulated, using the microwave radiative transfer model (MRTM) and atmospheric scattering models. These MBT were computed as a function of rates of rainfall from precipitating clouds which are in a combined phase of ice and water. Microwave extinction due to ice and liquid water are calculated using Mie-theory and Gamma drop size distributions. Microwave absorption due to oxygen and water vapor are based on the schemes given by Rosenkranz, and Barret and Chung. The scattering phase matrix involved in the MRTM is found using Eddington's two stream approximation. The surface effects due to winds and foam are included through the ocean surface emissivity model. Rainfall rates are then inverted from MBT using the optimization technique "Leaps and Bounds" and multiple linear regression leading to a relationship between the rainfall rates and MBT. This relationship has been used to infer the oceanic rainfall rates from SMMR data. The VISSR data has been inverted for the rainfall rates using Griffith's scheme. This scheme provides an independent means of estimating rainfall rates for cross checking SMMR estimates. The inferred rainfall rates from both techniques have been plotted on a world map for comparison. A reasonably good correlation has been obtained between the two estimates.

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

Exploration of discrepancy between radar and gauge rainfall estimates driven by wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Qiang; Han, Dawei

2014-11-01

Due to the fact that weather radar is prone to several sources of errors, it is acknowledged that adjustment against ground observations such as rain gauges is crucial for radar measurement. Spatial matching of precipitation patterns between radar and rain gauge is a significant premise in radar bias corrections. It is a conventional way to construct radar-gauge pairs based on their vertical locations. However, due to the wind effects, the raindrops observed by the radar do not always fall vertically to the ground, and the raindrops arriving at the ground may not all be caught by the rain gauge. This study proposes a fully formulated scheme to numerically simulate the movement of raindrops in a three-dimensional wind field in order to adjust the wind-induced errors. The Brue catchment (135 km2) in Southwest England covering 28 radar pixels and 49 rain gauges is an experimental catchment, where the radar central beam height varies between 500 and 700 m. The 20 typical events (with durations of 6-36 h) are chosen to assess the correlation between hourly radar and gauge rainfall surfaces. It is found that for most events, the improved rates of correlation coefficients are greater than 10%, and nearly half of the events increase by 20%. With the proposed method, except four events, all the event-averaged correlation values are greater than 0.5. This work is the first study to tackle both wind effects on radar and rain gauges, which could be considered as one of the essential components in processing radar observational data in its hydrometeorological applications.

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of São Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales Rodriguez, Carlos A.; da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Bombardi, Rodrigo

2010-05-01

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of São Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature ( T), web-bulb temperature ( Tw), surface atmospheric pressure ( P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of São Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16:00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 °C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5 mm day - 1 while the NTDs had 4 mm day - 1 . Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn't a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of São Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development.

On the Characterization of Rainfall Associated with U.S. Landfalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luitel, B. N.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G. A.

2014-12-01

When we talk about tropical cyclones (TCs), the first things that come to mind are strong winds and storm surge affecting the coastal areas. However, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 59% of the deaths caused by TCs since 1970 is due to fresh water flooding. Heavy rainfall associated with TCs accounts for 13% of heavy rainfall events nationwide for the June-October months, with this percentage being much higher if the focus is on the eastern and southern United States. This study focuses on the evaluation of precipitation associated with the North Atlantic TCs that affected the continental United States over the period 2007 - 2012. We evaluate the rainfall associated with these TCs using four satellite based rainfall products: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique (CMORPH). As a reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by CPC (Daily US Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Precipitation). Rainfall fields from each of these satellite products are compared to the reference data, providing valuable information about the realism of these products in reproducing the rainfall associated with TCs affecting the continental United States. In addition to the satellite products, we evaluate the forecasted rainfall produced by five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC). The skill of these models in reproducing TC rainfall is quantified for different lead times, and discussed in light of the performance of the satellite products.

Mesoscale convective systems and nocturnal rainfall over the West African Sahel: role of the Inter-tropical front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-01-01

A convection-permitting regional model simulation for August 2006 and observations are evaluated to better understand the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the Sahel. In particular, reasons for a nocturnal rainfall maximum over parts of the Sahel during the height of the West African monsoon are investigated. A relationship between mesoscale convective system (MCS) activity and inter-tropical front (ITF)/dryline dynamics is revealed. Over 90% of the Sahel nocturnal rainfall derives from propagating MCSs that have been associated with topography in earlier studies. In contrast, in this case study, 70-90% of the nocturnal rainfall over the southern Sahel (11°N-14°N) west of 15°E is associated with MCSs that originate less than 1000 km upstream (to the north and east) in the afternoon, in a region largely devoid of significant orography. This MCS development occurs in association with the Sahel ITF, combined with atmospheric pre-conditioning. Daytime surface heating generates turbulent mixing that promotes planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth accompanied by a low-level reversal in the meridional flow. This enhances wind convergence in the low-level moist layer within 2°-3° of latitude of the equatorward side of the ITF. MCSs tend to form when this vertical mixing extends to the level of free convection and is accompanied by a mid-tropospheric African easterly wave disturbance to the east. This synoptic disturbance enhances the vertical wind shear and atmospheric instability over the genesis location. These results are found to be robust across the region.

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Diego Garcia Lagoon

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

relative humidity, rainfall rate (m/s), evapotranspiration rate (m/s), net solar shortwave radiation (J/m2/s), cloud cover, wind speed (m/s), and... Evapotranspiration estimates were made using a version of the Modified Penman Equation (CIMIS, 2014). Solar radiation measurements were obtained from

Using nudging to improve global-regional dynamic consistency in limited-area climate modeling: What should we nudge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, Hiba; Drobinski, Philippe; Dubos, Thomas

2015-03-01

Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the "optimal" use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a "Big Brother Experiment", where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As an immediate consequence, nudging tropospheric wind, temperature and moisture in WRF gives by far the best results with respect to the Big-Brother simulation. However, we noticed that a residual bias of the geopotential height persists due to a negative surface pressure anomaly which suggests that surface pressure is the missing quantity to nudge. Nudging the geopotential has no discernible effect. Finally, it should be noted that the proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best "observed" fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field.

The Relative Importance of Convective and Trade-wind Orographic Precipitation to Streamflow in the Luquillo Mountains, Eastern Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Shanley, J. B.; Occhi, M.; Scatena, F. N.

2012-12-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico (18.3° N) have abundant rainfall and stream discharge, but relatively little storage capacity. Therefore, the water supply is vulnerable to drought and water availability may be affected by projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics due to global warming. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, precipitation patterns were analyzed, and stable-isotope signatures of precipitation from different seasonal weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Stable isotope data include cloud water, rainfall, throughfall, streamflow, and groundwater from the Rio Mameyes and Rio Icacos/ Rio Blanco watersheds. Precipitation inputs have a wide range of stable isotope values, from fog/cloud water with δ2H and δ18O averaging +3.2‰, -1.74‰ respectively, to tropical storm rain with values as low as -154‰, -20.4‰. Spatial and temporal patterns of water isotopic values on this Caribbean island are different than higher latitude, continental watersheds. The data exhibit a 'reverse seasonality', with higher isotopic values in winter and lower values in summer; and stable isotope values of stream water do not decrease as expected with increasing altitude, because of cloud water input. Rain isotopic values vary predictably with local and mesoscale weather patterns and correlate strongly with cloud altitude. This correlation allows us to assign isotopic signatures to different sources of precipitation, and to investigate which climate patterns contribute to streamflow and groundwater recharge. At a measurement site at 615 m in the Luquillo Mountains, the average length of time between rain events was 15 h, and 45% of the rain events were <2 mm, reflecting the frequent small rain events of the trade-wind orographic rainfall weather pattern. Long-term average streamflow isotopic composition indicates a disproportionately large contribution of this trade-wind precipitation to streamflow, highlighting the importance of this climate pattern to the hydrology of the watersheds. Isotopic composition of groundwater suggests a slightly higher proportion of convective precipitation, but still smaller than in total rainfall. Hydrograph separation experiments yielded information on stormflow characteristics, with quantification of contributing sources determined from water isotopes and solute chemistry. The evidence that intense convective rain events run off and light trade-wind showers appear to contribute much of the baseflow indicates that the area may undergo a change in water supply if the trade-wind orographic precipitation dynamics in the Caribbean are affected by future climate change.

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

CO2 leakage monitoring and analysis to understand the variation of CO2 concentration in vadose zone by natural effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joun, Won-Tak; Ha, Seung-Wook; Kim, Hyun Jung; Ju, YeoJin; Lee, Sung-Sun; Lee, Kang-Kun

2017-04-01

Controlled ex-situ experiments and continuous CO2 monitoring in the field are significant implications for detecting and monitoring potential leakage from CO2 sequestration reservoir. However, it is difficult to understand the observed parameters because the natural disturbance will fluctuate the signal of detections in given local system. To identify the original source leaking from sequestration reservoir and to distinguish the camouflaged signal of CO2 concentration, the artificial leakage test was conducted in shallow groundwater environment and long-term monitoring have been performed. The monitoring system included several parameters such as pH, temperature, groundwater level, CO2 gas concentration, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, borehole pressure, and rainfall event etc. Especially in this study, focused on understanding a relationship among the CO2 concentration, wind speed, rainfall and pressure difference. The results represent that changes of CO2 concentration in vadose zone could be influenced by physical parameters and this reason is helpful in identifying the camouflaged signal of CO2 concentrations. The 1-D column laboratory experiment also was conducted to understand the sparking-peak as shown in observed data plot. The results showed a similar peak plot and could consider two assumptions why the sparking-peak was shown. First, the trapped CO2 gas was escaped when the water table was changed. Second, the pressure equivalence between CO2 gas and water was broken when the water table was changed. These field data analysis and laboratory experiment need to advance due to comprehensively quantify local long-term dynamics of the artificial CO2 leaking aquifer. Acknowledgement Financial support was provided by the "R&D Project on Environmental Management of Geologic CO2 Storage" from the KEITI (Project Number: 2014001810003)

[Prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in hospitalized children at a children's hospital and effects of climate change on the prevalence in Suzhou, China].

PubMed

Geng, Jia; Guo, Wan-Liang; Zhang, Xue-Lan

2015-05-01

To investigate the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in hospitalized children and the relationship between the prevalence and the climate change in Suzhou, China. A total of 42 664 nasopharyngeal secretions from hospitalized children with acute respiratory infection at the Suzhou Children's Hospital were screened for RSV antigens using direct immunofluorescence. Monthly meteorological data (mean monthly air temperature, monthly relative humidity, monthly rainfall, total monthly sunshine duration, and mean monthly wind velocity) in Suzhou between 2001 and 2011 were collected. The correlations between RSV detection rate and climatic factors were evaluated using correlation and stepwise regression analysis. The annual RSV infection rate in hospitalized children with respiratory infection in the Suzhou Children's Hospital varied between 11.85% and 27.30% from 2001 to 2011. In the 9 epidemic seasons, each spanning from November to April of the next year, from 2001 to 2010, the RSV detection rates were 40.75%, 22.72%, 39.93%, 27.37%, 42.71%, 21.28%, 38.57%, 19.86%, and 29.73%, respectively; there were significant differences in the detection rate between the epidemic seasons. The monthly RSV detection rate was negatively correlated with mean monthly air temperature, total monthly sunshine duration, monthly rainfall, monthly relative humidity, and mean monthly wind velocity (P<0.05). Stepwise regression analysis showed that mean monthly air temperature fitted into a linear model (R(2)=0.64, P<0.01). From 2001 to 2011, RSV infection in Suzhou was predominantly prevalent between November and April of the next year. As a whole, the infection rate of RSV reached a peak every other year. Air temperature played an important role in the epidemics of RSV infection in Suzhou.

Occurrence of Landslides during the Approach of Tropical Cyclone Juliette (2001) to Baja California Sur, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antinao, J.; Farfan, L.

2012-12-01

The approach of Tropical Cyclone Juliette to the Baja California Peninsula in September 2001 triggered at least 419 landslides. Most of the landslides were shallow slips and debris slides, of limited areal extent, which were converted rapidly into debris flows to be exported quickly out of the mountain areas towards the lowlands. Main factors affecting landslide occurrence were total storm rainfall and intensity, aspect, geology and vegetation association. Two processes can be distinguished as initiating slope failure. The first process is linked to failures in concave topography, where accumulation of rainfall from exposed bedrock slopes generated excess overland flow that aggregated to generate a 'fire hose' effect on the base of slopes, mobilizing regolith. A second process involved a combination of wind and excess overland flow developed in the more convex or planar upper slopes, where heterogeneous regolith has formed in time following successional changes in vegetation associations along the oak-dry tropical forest ecotone. In this area, wind uprooted trees that dislodged large regolith and bedrock blocks, priming hillslopes for further runoff concentration. From the analysis of historical information, an estimative threshold curve for triggering landslides in this region is sketched. It was also determined that storms like Juliette approach the southern peninsula on average once every 100 years. Denudation estimates are in the higher end of the spectrum for a tectonically passive margin. These estimates should be considered when taking decisions regarding management of water resources in this area through damming of streams. The results emphasize the need for a more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of the rainfall and winds for this mountainous region frequently affected by the passage of tropical cyclones.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

PubMed Central

Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.

2016-01-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm. PMID:27545899

A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

2018-05-01

The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes.

PubMed

Lin, Y-C; Oey, L-Y

2016-08-22

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.

2016-08-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Oey, L. Y.

2016-12-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Variational Assimilation of Global Microwave Rainfall Retrievals: Physical and Dynamical Impact on GEOS Analyses and Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Xin; Zhang, Sara Q.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2006-01-01

Global microwave rainfall retrievals from a 5-satellite constellation, including TMI from TRMM, SSWI from DMSP F13, F14 and F15, and AMSR-E from EOS-AQUA, are assimilated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) using a 1-D variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm. The physical and dynamical impact of rainfall assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts is examined at various temporal and spatial scales. This study demonstrates that the 1-D VCA algorithm, which was originally developed and evaluated for rainfall assimilations over tropical oceans, can effectively assimilate satellite microwave rainfall retrievals and improve GEOS analyses over both the Tropics and the extratropics where the atmospheric processes are dominated by different large-scale dynamics and moist physics, and also over the land, where rainfall estimates from passive microwave radiometers are believed to be less accurate. Results show that rainfall assimilation renders the GEOS analysis physically and dynamically more consistent with the observed precipitation at the monthly-mean and 6-hour time scales. Over regions where the model precipitation tends to misbehave in distinctly different rainy regimes, the 1-D VCA algorithm, by compensating for errors in the model s moist time-tendency in a 6-h analysis window, is able to bring the rainfall analysis closer to the observed. The radiation and cloud fields also tend to be in better agreement with independent satellite observations in the rainfall-assimilation m especially over regions where rainfall analyses indicate large improvements. Assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for a midlatitude frontal system clearly indicates that the GEOS analysis is improved through changes in the thermodynamic and dynamic fields that respond to the rainfall assimilation. The synoptic structures of temperature, moisture, winds, divergence, and vertical motion, as well as vorticity are more realistically captured across the front. Short-term forecasts using initial conditions assimilated with rainfall data also show slight improvements. 1

Influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex on Flooding in Northeast China in Summer 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jing; Gao, Hui

2018-04-01

Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China (NEC) in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid-high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Coastal and rain-induced wind variability depicted by scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portabella, M.; Lin, W.; Stoffelen, A.; Turiel, A.; Verhoef, A.; Verspeek, J.; Ballabrera, J.; Vogelzang, J.

2012-04-01

A detailed knowledge of local wind variability near the shore is very important since it strongly affects the weather and microclimate in coastal regions. Since coastal areas are densely populated and most activity at sea occurs near the shore, sea-surface wind field information is important for a number of applications. In the vicinity of land sea-breeze, wave fetch, katabatic and current effects are more likely than in the open ocean, thus enhancing air-sea interaction. Also very relevant for air-sea interaction are the rain-induced phenomena, such as downbursts and convergence. Relatively cold and dry air is effectively transported to the ocean surface and surface winds are enhanced. In general, both coastal and rain-induced wind variability are poorly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Satellite real aperture radars (i.e., scatterometers) are known to provide accurate mesoscale (25-50 km resolution) sea surface wind field information used in a wide variety of applications. Nowadays, there are two operating scatterometers in orbit, i.e., the C-band Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A and the Ku-band scatterometer (OSCAT) onboard Oceansat-2. The EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) delivers several ASCAT level 2 wind products with 25 km and 12.5 km Wind Vector Cell (WVC) spacing, including a pre-operational coastal wind product as well as an OSCAT level 2 wind product with 50 km spacing in development status. Rain is known to both attenuate and scatter the microwave signal. In addition, there is a "splashing" effect. The roughness of the sea surface is increased because of splashing due to rain drops. The so-called "rain contamination" is larger for Ku-band scatterometer systems than for C-band systems. Moreover, the associated downdrafts lead to variable wind speeds and directions, further complicating the wind retrieval. The C-band ASCAT high resolution wind processing is validated under rainy conditions, using collocations with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) rain data, and the tropical moored buoy wind and precipitation data. It turns out that the effect of low and moderate rain appears mainly in increasing the wind variability near the surface and, unlike for Ku-band scatterometers, the rain rate itself does not appear clearly as a limiting factor in ASCAT wind quality. Moreover, the downburst patterns as observed by ASCAT are unique and have large implications for air-sea exchange. At the conference, the main progress in scatterometer wind data processing will be shown.

Prognostic Aspects of Sub-seasonal Rainfall Characteristics using the Outputs of General Circulation Model: An Application of Statistical Downscaling and Temporal Disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ghosh, K.

2015-12-01

Most regions of India experience varied rainfall duration during the southwest monsoon, changes in which exhibit major impact not only agriculture, but also other sectors like hydrology, agriculture, food and fodder storage etc. In addition, changes in sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics highly impact the rice production. As part of the endeavor seasonal climate outlook, as well as information for weather within climate may be helpful for advance planning and risk management in agriculture. The General Circulation Model (GCM) provide an alternative to gather information for weather within climate but variability is very low in comparison to observation. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of GCM predicted rainfall is not found at the observed station/grid point. To tackle the problem, initially a statistical downscaling over 19 station of Odisha state is undertaken using the atmospheric parameters predicted by a GCM (NCEP-CFSv2). For the purpose, an extended domain is taken for analyzing the significant zone for the atmospheric parameters like zonal wind at 850hPa, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), geopotential height. A statistical model using the pattern projection method is further developed based on empirical orthogonal function. The downscaled rainfall is found better in association with station observation in comparison to raw GCM prediction in view of deterministic and probabilistic skill measure. Further, the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast from the GCMs can be used at different time steps for risk management. Therefore, downscaled seasonal/monthly rainfall is further converted to sub-seasonal/daily time scale using a non-homogeneous markov model. The simulated weather sequences are further compared with the observed sequence in view of categorical rainfall events. The outcomes suggest that the rainfall amount are overestimated for excess rainfall and henceforth larger excess rainfall events can be realized. The skill for prediction of rainfall events corresponding to lower thresholds is found higher. A detail discussion regarding skill of spatial downscale rainfall at observed stations and its further representation of sub-seasonal characteristics (spells, less rainfall, heavy rainfall, and moderate rainfall events) of rainfall for disaggregated outputs will be presented.

Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

2017-12-01

While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

Bioengineering Technology to Control River Soil Erosion using Vetiver (Vetiveria Zizaniodes)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriwati, M.; Pallu, S.; Selintung, M.; Lopa, R.

2018-04-01

Erosion is the action of surface processes (such as water flow or wind) that removes soil, rock or dissolved material from one location on the earth’s crust, and then transport it away to another location. Bioengineering is an attempt to maximise the use of vegetation components along riverbanks to cope with landslides and erosion of river cliffs and another riverbank damage. This study aims to analyze the bioengineering of Vetiver as a surface layer for soil erosion control using slope of 100, 200, and 300. This study is conducted with 3 variations of rain intensity (I), at 103 mm/hour, 107 mm/hour, and 130 mm/hour by using rainfall simulator tool. In addition, the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) method is used in order to measure the rate of soil erosion. In this study, there are few USLE model parameters were used such as rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, length-loss slope and stepness factor, cover management factor, and support practise factor. The results demonstrated that average of reduction of erosion rate using Vetiver, under 3 various rainfalls, namely rainfall intensity 103 mm/hr had reduced 84.971%, rainfall intensity 107 mm/hr had reduced 86.583 %, rainfall intensity 130 mm/hr had reduced 65.851%.

Revisiting the latent heat nudging scheme for the rainfall assimilation of a simulated convective storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leuenberger, D.; Rossa, A.

2007-12-01

Next-generation, operational, high-resolution numerical weather prediction models require economical assimilation schemes for radar data. In the present study we evaluate and characterise the latent heat nudging (LHN) rainfall assimilation scheme within a meso-γ scale NWP model in the framework of identical twin simulations of an idealised supercell storm. Consideration is given to the model’s dynamical response to the forcing as well as to the sensitivity of the LHN scheme to uncertainty in the observations and the environment. The results indicate that the LHN scheme is well able to capture the dynamical structure and the right rainfall amount of the storm in a perfect environment. This holds true even in degraded environments but a number of important issues arise. In particular, changes in the low-level humidity field are found to affect mainly the precipitation amplitude during the assimilation with a fast adaptation of the storm to the system dynamics determined by the environment during the free forecast. A constant bias in the environmental wind field, on the other hand, has the potential to render a successful assimilation with the LHN scheme difficult, as the velocity of the forcing is not consistent with the system propagation speed determined by the wind. If the rainfall forcing moves too fast, the system propagation is supported and the assimilated storm and forecasts initialised therefrom develop properly. A too slow forcing, on the other hand, can decelerate the system and eventually disturb the system dynamics by decoupling the low-level moisture inflow from the main updrafts during the assimilation. This distortion is sustained in the free forecast. It has further been found that a sufficient temporal resolution of the rainfall input is crucial for the successful assimilation of a fast moving, coherent convective storm and that the LHN scheme, when applied to a convective storm, appears to necessitate a careful tuning.

Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.

1999-07-01

Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will improve the economic growth potential of southern Africa and provide additional security for food and water supplies.

Meteorology drives ambient air quality in a valley: a case of Sukinda chromite mine, one among the ten most polluted areas in the world.

PubMed

Mishra, Soumya Ranjan; Pradhan, Rudra Pratap; Prusty, B Anjan Kumar; Sahu, Sanjat Kumar

2016-07-01

The ambient air quality (AAQ) assessment was undertaken in Sukinda Valley, the chromite hub of India. The possible correlations of meteorological variables with different air quality parameters (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO) were examined. Being the fourth most polluted area in the globe, Sukinda Valley has always been under attention of researchers, for hexavalent chromium contamination of water. The monitoring was carried out from December 2013 through May 2014 at six strategic locations in the residential and commercial areas around the mining cluster of Sukinda Valley considering the guidelines of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). In addition, meteorological parameters viz., temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and rainfall, were also monitored. The air quality data were subjected to a general linear model (GLM) coupled with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for testing the significant difference in the concentration of various parameters among seasons and stations. Further, a two-tailed Pearson's correlation test helped in understanding the influence of meteorological parameters on dispersion of pollutants in the area. All the monitored air quality parameters varied significantly among the monitoring stations suggesting (i) the distance of sampling location to the mine site and other allied activities, (ii) landscape features and topography and (iii) meteorological parameters to be the forcing functions. The area was highly polluted with particulate matters, and in most of the cases, the PM level exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The meteorological parameters seemed to play a major role in the dispersion of pollutants around the mine clusters. The role of wind direction, wind speed and temperature was apparent in dispersion of the particulate matters from their source of generation to the surrounding residential and commercial areas of the mine.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.

2004-05-01

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the recent variability of the eastern African climate. The region of interest is also known as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), and comprises the countries of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania.The analysis was based primarily on the construction of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of gauge rainfall data and on CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data, derived from a combination of rain-gauge observations and satellite estimates. The investigation is based on the period 1961-2001 for the short rains season of eastern Africa of October through to December. The EOF analysis was supplemented by projection of National Centers for Environmental Prediction wind data onto the rainfall eigenmodes to understand the rainfall-circulation relationships. Furthermore, correlation and composite analyses have been performed with the Climatic Research Unit globally averaged surface-temperature time series to explore the potential relationship between the climate of eastern Africa and global warming.The most dominant mode of variability (EOF1) based on CMAP data over eastern Africa corresponds to El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) climate variability. It is associated with above-normal rainfall amounts during the short rains throughout the entire region, except for Sudan. The corresponding anomalous low-level circulation is dominated by easterly inflow from the Indian Ocean, and to a lesser extent the Congo tropical rain forest, into the positive rainfall anomaly region that extends across most of eastern Africa. The easterly inflow into eastern Africa is part of diffluent outflow from the maritime continent during the warm ENSO events. The second eastern African EOF (trend mode) is associated with decadal variability. In distinct contrast from the ENSO mode pattern, the trend mode is characterized by positive rainfall anomalies over the northern sector of eastern Africa and opposite conditions over the southern sector. This rainfall trend mode eluded detection in previous studies that did not include recent decades of data, because the signal was still relatively weak. The wind projection onto this mode indicates that the primary flow that feeds the positive anomaly region over the northern part of eastern Africa emanates primarily from the rainfall-deficient southern region of eastern Africa and Sudan. Although we do not assign attribution of the trend mode to global warming (in part because of the relatively short period of analysis), the evidence, based on our results and previous studies, strongly suggests a potential connection.

A STORMWATER CONSTRUCTED WETLAND USING RENEWABLE AND RECYCLABLE MATERIALS AND NATIVE WETLAND PLANTS

EPA Science Inventory

To complete the first objective, we installed a weather station within the storm water drainage area that measured air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and rainfall. Measurements were taken every 30 minutes and included the average temperature, rela...

DIY versus Professional

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rainboth, Donna; Munck, Miriam

2010-01-01

Weather, with its built-in atmospheric laboratory, is a natural source of inquiry. The ever-changing nature of weather provides a constant source of questions to investigate and connects to a multitude of physical science concepts. The question, "How accurate are homemade weather instruments in measuring air pressure, rainfall, wind speed and…

Effect of water potential and void ratio on erodibility for agricultural soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erodibility has confounded researchers for decades. Difficulties arise with initiation of motion, pore-water status, physical, and perhaps biological, material properties and type of applied energy (i.e. rainfall, runoff, freeze/thaw, wind). Though specific tests have been developed to determin...

The influence of meteorology on the spread of influenza: survival analysis of an equine influenza (A/H3N8) outbreak.

PubMed

Firestone, Simon M; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Moloney, Barbara J; Dhand, Navneet K

2012-01-01

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20-25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour(-1) from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

PubMed Central

Firestone, Simon M.; Cogger, Naomi; Ward, Michael P.; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L. M. L.; Moloney, Barbara J.; Dhand, Navneet K.

2012-01-01

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions. PMID:22536366

Numerical simulation of mesoscale surface pressure features with trailing stratiform squall lines using WRF -ARW model over Gangetic West Bengal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawn, Soma; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.

2018-01-01

In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the simulation of mesoscale surface pressure patterns like pre-squall mesolow, mesohigh and wake low associated with leading convective line-trailing stratiform (TS) squall lines over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB). For this purpose, a two way interactive triple nested domain with high resolution WRF model having2 km grid length in the innermost domain is used. The model simulated results are compared with the available in-situ observations obtained as a part of Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) programme, reflectivity products of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Kolkata and TRMM rainfall. Three TS squall lines (15 May 2009, 5 May 2010 and 7 May 2010) are chosen during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season for this study. The model simulated results of diurnal variation of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction at the station Kharagpur in GWB region reveal a sudden fall in temperature, increase in the amount of relative humidity and sudden rise in wind speed during the arrival of the storms. Such results are well comparable with the observations though there are some leading or lagging of time in respect of actual occurrences of such events. The study indicates that the model is able to predict the occurrences of three typical surface pressure features namely: pre-squall mesolow, meso high and wake low. The predicted surface parameters like accumulated rainfall, maximum reflectivity and vertical profiles (temperature, relative humidity and winds) are well accorded with the observations. The convective and stratiform precipitation region of the TS squall lines are well represented by the model. A strong downdraft is observed to be a contributory factor for formation of mesohigh in the convective region of the squall line. Wake low is observed to reside in the stratiform rain region and the descending dry air at this place has triggered the wake low through adiabatic warming. This study has established the usefulness of the high resolution model in predicting trailing stratiform squall lines and its associated features over the study region.

Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

2018-03-01

This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

Climate variability and environmental stress in the Sudan-Sahel zone of West Africa.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; D'haen, Sarah; Maiga, Abdou; Moussa, Ibrahim Bouzou; Barbier, Bruno; Diouf, Awa; Diallo, Drissa; Da, Evariste Dapola; Dabi, Daniel

2012-06-01

Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north-south and west-east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60-80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years. However, August rainfall declined, and could therefore potentially explain the contrasting negative household perceptions of rainfall trends. Most households reported degradation of soils, water resources, vegetation, and fauna, but more so in the 500-900 mm zones. Adaptation measures to counter environmental degradation included use of manure, reforestation, soil and water conservation, and protection of fauna and vegetation. The results raise concerns for future environmental management in the region, especially in the 500-900 mm zones and the western part of SSWA.

Short-term modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by West Asian dust

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vinoj, V.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

The Indian summer monsoon is the result of a complex interplay between radiative heating, dynamics and cloud and aerosol interactions. Despite increased scientific attention, the effect of aerosols on monsoons still remains uncertain. Here we present both observational evidence and numerical modeling results demonstrating a remote aerosol link to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Rainfall over central India is positively correlated to natural aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia. Simulations using a state-of-the-art global climate model support this remote aerosol link and indicate that dust aerosols induce additional moisture transport and convergence over Central India, producing increased monsoon rainfall.more » The convergence is driven through solar heating and latent heating within clouds over West Asia that increases surface winds over the Arabian Sea. On the other hand, sea-salt aerosol tends to counteract the effect of dust and reduces rainfall. Our findings highlight the importance of natural aerosols in modulating the strength of the Indian summer monsoon, and motivate additional research in how changes in background aerosols of natural origin may be influencing long-term trends in monsoon precipitation.« less

How East Asian westerly jet's meridional position affects the summer rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shixin; Zuo, Hongchao; Zhao, Shuman; Zhang, Jiankai; Lu, Sha

2017-03-01

Existing studies show that the change in the meridional position of East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) is associated with rainfall anomalies in Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) in summer. However, the dynamic mechanism has not been resolved yet. The present study reveals underlying mechanisms for this impact for early summer and midsummer, separately. Mechanism1: associated with EAWJ's anomalously southward displacement, the 500-hPa westerly wind over YHRV is strengthened through midtropospheric horizontal circulation anomalies; the westerly anomalies are related to the formation of warm advection anomalies over YHRV, which cause increased rainfall through adiabatic ascent motion and convective activities; the major difference in these processes between early summer and midsummer is the midtropospheric circulation anomaly pattern. Mechanism 2: associated with EAWJ's anomalously southward displacement, the large day-to-day variability of midtropospheric temperature advection in midlatitudes is displaced southward by the jet's trapping transient eddies; this change enhances the day-to-day variability of temperature advection over YHRV, which in turn causes the increased rainfall in most part of YHRV through "lower-bound effect" (rainfall amount can not become negative); there is not much difference in these processes between early summer and midsummer.

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change over the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Hamilton, K. P.; Lauer, A.

2015-12-01

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method was applied to the Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) to dynamically downscale the projected climate in the late 21st century over the Hawaiian Islands. The initial and boundary conditions were adopted from MERRA reanalysis and NOAA SST data for the present-day simulations. The global warming increments constructed from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean were added to the reanalysis and SST data to perform the future climate simulations. We found that the Hawaiian Islands are vulnerable to global warming effects and the changes are diverse due to the varied topography. The windward side will have more clouds and receive more rainfall. The increase of the moisture in the boundary layer makes the major contribution. On the contrary, the leeward side will have less clouds and rainfall. The clouds and rain can slightly slow down the warming trend over the windward side. The temperature increases almost linearly with the terrain height. Cloud base and top heights will slightly decline in response to the slightly lower trade wind inversion base height, while the trade wind occurrence frequency will increase by about 8% in the future. More extreme rainfall events will occur in the warming climate over the Hawaiian Islands. And the snow cover on the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa will nearly disappear in the future winter.

Female Agassiz’s desert tortoise activity at a wind energy facility in southern California: The influence of an El Niño event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ennen, Josh R.; Meyer-Wilkins, Kathie; Lovich, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

We compared spring-summer activity of adult female Agassiz’s Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) among three consecutive years (1997, 1998, and 1999) that differed dramatically in winter rainfall and annual plant production at a wind energy facility in the Sonoran Desert of southern California. Winter rainfall was approximately 71%, 190%, and 17% of the long-term average (October-March = 114 mm) for this area in water years (WY) 1997, 1998, and 1999, respectively. The substantial precipitation caused by an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in WY 1998 produced a generous annual food plant supply (138.2 g dry biomass/ m2) in the spring. Primary production of winter annuals during below average rainfall years (WY 1997 and WY 1999) was reduced to 98.3 and 0.2 g/m2, respectively. Mean rates of movement and mean body condition indices (mass/length) did not differ significantly among the years. The drought year following ENSO (WY 1999) was statistically similar to ENSO in every other measured value, while WY 1997 (end of a two year drought) was statistically different from ENSO using activity area, minimum number of burrows used, and percentage of non-movements. Our data suggest that female G. agassizii activity can be influenced by environmental conditions in previous years.

Nowcast modeling of Escherichia coli concentrations at multiple urban beaches of southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith B.; Whitman, Richard L.

2005-01-01

Predictive modeling for Escherichia coli concentrations at effluent-dominated beaches may be a favorable alternative to current, routinely criticized monitoring standards. The ability to model numerous beaches simultaneously and provide real-time data decreases cost and effort associated with beach monitoring. In 2004, five Lake Michigan beaches and the nearby Little Calumet River outfall were monitored for E. coli 7 days a week; on nine occasions, samples were analyzed for coliphage to indicate a sewage source. Ambient lake, river, and weather conditions were measured or obtained from independent monitoring sources. Positive tests for coliphage analysis indicated sewage was present in the river and on bathing beaches following heavy rainfall. Models were developed separately for days with prevailing onshore and offshore winds due to the strong influence of wind direction in determining the river's impact on the beaches. Using regression modeling, it was determined that during onshore winds, E. coli   could be adequately predicted using wave height, lake chlorophyll and turbidity, and river turbidity (R2=0.635, N=94); model performance decreased for offshore winds using wave height, wave period, and precipitation (R2=0.320, N=124). Variation was better explained at individual beaches. Overall, the models only failed to predict E. coli levels above the EPA closure limit (235 CFU/100 ml) on five of eleven occasions, indicating that the model is a more reliable alternative to the monitoring approach employed at most recreational beaches.

Causes of Upper-Ocean Temperature Anomalies in the Tropical North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugg, A.; Foltz, G. R.; Perez, R. C.

2016-02-01

Hurricane activity and regional rainfall are strongly impacted by upper ocean conditions in the tropical North Atlantic, defined as the region between the equator and 20°N. A previous study analyzed a strong cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly that developed in this region during early 2009 and was recorded by the Pilot Research Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) moored buoy at 4°N, 23°W (Foltz et al. 2012). The same mooring shows a similar cold anomaly in the spring of 2015 as well as a strong warm anomaly in 2010, offering the opportunity for a more comprehensive analysis of the causes of these events. In this study we examine the main causes of the observed temperature anomalies between 1998 and 2015. Basin-scale conditions during these events are analyzed using satellite SST, wind, and rain data, as well as temperature and salinity profiles from the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System. A more detailed analysis is conducted using ten years of direct measurements from the PIRATA mooring at 4°N, 23°W. Results show that the cooling and warming anomalies were caused primarily by wind-driven changes in surface evaporative cooling, mixed layer depth, and upper-ocean vertical velocity. Anomalies in surface solar radiation acted to damp the wind-driven SST anomalies in the latitude bands of the ITCZ (3°-8°N). Basin-scale analyses also suggest a strong connection between the observed SST anomalies and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, a well-known pattern of SST and surface wind anomalies spanning the tropical Atlantic.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

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Interactions Between Raindrop Impact and Shallow Interrill Flow Under Wind-Driven Rain

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Raindrops impacting shallow interrill flow create hydraulic friction in overland flow, and the roughness caused by raindrops against the shallow flow is generally explained by the Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient, which is calculated as a function of rainfall intensity along with bed roughness. H...

Interactions between raindrop impact and shallow interrill flow under wind-driven rain (WDR)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Raindrops impacting shallow interrill flow create hydraulic friction in overland flow, and the roughness caused by raindrops against the shallow flow is generally explained by the Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient, which is calculated as a function of rainfall intensity along with bed roughness. H...

Observations of white drupelets on three blackberry cultivars in south Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

White drupelet disorder has long been known as a problem in blackberry production. Several possible causes have been discussed, such as low humidity, wind, rainfall, high light intensities, UV light, stinkbugs, red berry mites, and some interaction of some or all of these. In 2016, we observed three...

Statistical distribution of wind speeds and directions globally observed by NSCAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebuchi, Naoto

1999-05-01

In order to validate wind vectors derived from the NASA scatterometer (NSCAT), statistical distributions of wind speeds and directions over the global oceans are investigated by comparing with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind data. Histograms of wind speeds and directions are calculated from the preliminary and reprocessed NSCAT data products for a period of 8 weeks. For wind speed of the preliminary data products, excessive low wind distribution is pointed out through comparison with ECMWF winds. A hump at the lower wind speed side of the peak in the wind speed histogram is discernible. The shape of the hump varies with incidence angle. Incompleteness of the prelaunch geophysical model function, SASS 2, tentatively used to retrieve wind vectors of the preliminary data products, is considered to cause the skew of the wind speed distribution. On the contrary, histograms of wind speeds of the reprocessed data products show consistent features over the whole range of incidence angles. Frequency distribution of wind directions relative to spacecraft flight direction is calculated to assess self-consistency of the wind directions. It is found that wind vectors of the preliminary data products exhibit systematic directional preference relative to antenna beams. This artificial directivity is also considered to be caused by imperfections in the geophysical model function. The directional distributions of the reprocessed wind vectors show less directivity and consistent features, except for very low wind cases.

The past, present and future of African dust.

PubMed

Evan, Amato T; Flamant, Cyrille; Gaetani, Marco; Guichard, Françoise

2016-03-24

African dust emission and transport exhibits variability on diurnal to decadal timescales and is known to influence processes such as Amazon productivity, Atlantic climate modes, regional atmospheric composition and radiative balance and precipitation in the Sahel. To elucidate the role of African dust in the climate system, it is necessary to understand the factors governing its emission and transport. However, African dust is correlated with seemingly disparate atmospheric phenomena, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the meridional position of the intertropical convergence zone, Sahelian rainfall and surface temperatures over the Sahara Desert, all of which obfuscate the connection between dust and climate. Here we show that the surface wind field responsible for most of the variability in North African dust emission reflects the topography of the Sahara, owing to orographic acceleration of the surface flow. As such, the correlations between dust and various climate phenomena probably arise from the projection of the winds associated with these phenomena onto an orographically controlled pattern of wind variability. A 161-year time series of dust from 1851 to 2011, created by projecting this wind field pattern onto surface winds from a historical reanalysis, suggests that the highest concentrations of dust occurred from the 1910s to the 1940s and the 1970s to the 1980s, and that there have been three periods of persistent anomalously low dust concentrations--in the 1860s, 1950s and 2000s. Projections of the wind pattern onto climate models give a statistically significant downward trend in African dust emission and transport as greenhouse gas concentrations increase over the twenty-first century, potentially associated with a slow-down of the tropical circulation. Such a dust feedback, which is not represented in climate models, may be of benefit to human and ecosystem health in West Africa via improved air quality and increased rainfall. This feedback may also enhance warming of the tropical North Atlantic, which would make the basin more suitable for hurricane formation and growth.

Why was the strengthening of rainfall in summer over the Yangtze River valley in 2016 less pronounced than that in 1998 under similar preceding El Niño events?—Role of midlatitude circulation in August

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chaofan; Chen, Wei; Hong, Xiaowei; Lu, Riyu

2017-11-01

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Niño, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 El Niño having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016—different to the positive anomaly of 1998. Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes. The intensified "Silk Road Pattern" and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region, both at their strongest since 1980, resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere. This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind, weakened the water vapor transport, and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016, as compared to that in 1998. Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016, more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation—besides the signal in the tropics—to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall.

The collaborative historical African rainfall model: description and evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Artan, Guleid A.; Husak, Gregory; Senay, Gabriel B.; Gadain, Hussein; Magadazire, Tamuka

2003-01-01

In Africa the variability of rainfall in space and time is high, and the general availability of historical gauge data is low. This makes many food security and hydrologic preparedness activities difficult. In order to help overcome this limitation, we have created the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM). CHARM combines three sources of information: climatologically aided interpolated (CAI) rainfall grids (monthly/0.5° ), National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis precipitation fields (daily/1.875° ) and orographic enhancement estimates (daily/0.1° ). The first set of weights scales the daily reanalysis precipitation fields to match the gridded CAI monthly rainfall time series. This produces data with a daily/0.5° resolution. A diagnostic model of orographic precipitation, VDELB—based on the dot-product of the surface wind V and terrain gradient (DEL) and atmospheric buoyancy B—is then used to estimate the precipitation enhancement produced by complex terrain. Although the data are produced on 0.1° grids to facilitate integration with satellite-based rainfall estimates, the ‘true’ resolution of the data will be less than this value, and varies with station density, topography, and precipitation dynamics. The CHARM is best suited, therefore, to applications that integrate rainfall or rainfall-driven model results over large regions. The CHARM time series is compared with three independent datasets: dekadal satellite-based rainfall estimates across the continent, dekadal interpolated gauge data in Mali, and daily interpolated gauge data in western Kenya. These comparisons suggest reasonable accuracies (standard errors of about half a standard deviation) when data are aggregated to regional scales, even at daily time steps. Thus constrained, numerical weather prediction precipitation fields do a reasonable job of representing large-scale diurnal variations.

Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

PubMed

Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

2018-02-01

The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Decadal Variability of Global Oceans on South Asian Monsoon and ENSO-Monsoon Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi

This study has investigated the influence of the decadal variability associated with global oceans on South Asian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relation. The results are based on observational analysis using long records of monsoon rainfall and circulation and coupled general circulation model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 model. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of the observed rainfall over India yields three decadal modes. The first mode (52 year period) is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the second one (21 year) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the third mode (13 year) with the Atlantic tripole. The existence of these decadal modes in the monsoon was also found in the control simulation of NCAR CCSM4. The regionally de-coupled model experiments performed to isolate the influence of North Pacific and North Atlantic also substantiate the above results. The relation between the decadal modes in the monsoon rainfall with the known decadal modes in global SST is examined. The PDO has significant negative correlation with the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR). The mechanism for PDO-monsoon relation is hypothesized through the seasonal footprinting mechanism and further through Walker and Hadley circulations. The model results also confirm the negative correlation between PDO and IMR and the mechanism through which PDO influences monsoon. Both observational and model analysis show that droughts (floods) are more likely over India than floods (droughts) when ENSO and PDO are in their warm (cold) phase. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully distinguishing the different decadal modes in the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean as they have different impacts on the monsoon. The AMO exhibits significant positive correlation with the IMR while the Atlantic tripole has significant negative correlation with the IMR. The AMO influences the Indian monsoon through atmospheric winds related to high summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode leading to enhanced moisture flow over the Indian subcontinent. The Atlantic tripole mode affects the rainfall over India by enhancing the moisture flow through the equatorial westerly winds associated with the NAO. The model also simulates the positive and negative relation of AMO and tripole, respectively, with the monsoon rainfall. The model also indicates the enhanced moisture flow over India related to the positive phase of AMO through the equatorial westerly flow. But, for the tripole mode, the model indicates flow of moisture through the Bay of Bengal in contrast to observations where it is through the Arabian Sea. The reason for the absence of decadal mode in IMR inherent to the Indian Ocean is also explored. The SSA on dipole mode index (DMI) index reveals three modes. The first two modes are related to the biennial and canonical ENSO at interannual timescale while the third mode varies on decadal timescale and is related to PDO. The wind regression pattern associated with the PDO-IOD mode shows northeasterly winds enhancing the southeasterly flow from the southeastern Indian Ocean related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. The model also shows the influence of canonical ENSO and PDO influence on IOD, although the variance explained by PDO mode is lower in the model relative to observations.

Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

Precontact vegetation and soil nutrient status in the shadow of Kohala Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Oliver A.; Kelly, Eugene F.; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Vitousek, Peter M.

2007-09-01

Humans colonized Hawaii about 1200 years ago and have progressively modified vegetation, particularly in mesic to dry tropical forests. We use δ 13C to evaluate the contribution of C 3 and C 4 plants to deep soil organic matter to reconstruct pre-human contact vegetation patterns along a wet to dry climate transect on Kohala Mountain, Hawaii Island. Precontact vegetation assemblages fall into three distinct zones: a wet C 3 dominated closed canopy forest where annual rainfall is > 2000 mm, a dry C 4 dominated grassland with annual rainfall < 500 mm, and a broad transition zone between these communities characterized by either C 3 trees with higher water-use efficiency than the rainforest trees or C 3 trees with a small amount of C 4 grasses intermixed. The likelihood of C 4 grass understory decreases with increasing rainfall. We show that the total concentration of rock-derived nutrients in the < 2-mm soil fraction differs in each of these vegetation zones. Nutrient losses are driven by leaching at high rainfall and by plant cycling and wind erosion at low rainfall. By contrast, nutrients are best preserved in surface soils of the intermediate rainfall zone, where rainfall supports abundant plant growth but does not contribute large amounts of water in excess of evapotranspiration. Polynesian farmers exploited these naturally enriched soils as they intensified their upland agricultural systems during the last three centuries before European contact.

Effects of some air pollutants and meteorological conditions on airborne algae and protozoa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, P.E.

1973-10-01

The effects of meteorological conditions and specific air pollutants on the viability of airborne algae and protozoa were investigated. Such investigations will be of interest to medical researchers because these organisms are the source of many allergies. The three air pollutants that were continuously measured and recorded were sulfur, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. During the experiment, 25 different species of algae and 19 species of protozoa were collected from the atmosphere and cultured at the Westinghouse environmental Station Laboratory in Raleigh, North Carolina. The algae and protozoa were collected over a one-year period (Jan-Dec 1971) by using a sequential samplermore » that moved air through a membrane filter at the rate of 15 ft/sup 3//hr. Every two hours a new filter was sequentially moved in to replace the old one. The results indicated a relationship between wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dewpoint, particulate matter, barometric pressure, and rainfall to the percent frequency of positive culture tubes and number of cell/ft/sup 3/ of air. Further studies are necessary to determine the interrelationships between the physical and chemical character of various air masses and their effect on the survival of algae and protozoa.« less

Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

2013-12-01

Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper levels, caused by a changing position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) toward the southwest (northeast). But, there is no coincident robust pattern of wind anomalies over the Mantaro Basin. In conclusion, dry spells in the Mantaro basin appear to be dynamically linked to wet spells in NEB, since 62% of all dry events in MB coincide with wet spells in NEB (35% of all events). The dynamical link explaining the observed teleconnection and the resulting dipole pattern between precipitation extremes in the MB and NEB region, respectively, appears to be related to intraseasonal variability in the Bolivian High - Nordeste Low system. Only 26.53% of all wet spells, however, coincide with dry spells in NEB (12.15% of all events). While circulation anomalies that affect precipitation extremes in the MB have the potential to also affect the precipitation characteristics in NEB, the opposite is not the case. Extreme events in NEB are primarily affected by NE-SW displacement in the SACZ, a mechanism that is of little relevance for precipitation extremes in the MB.

Modeling the reflection of Photosynthetically active radiation in a monodominant floodable forest in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso State using multivariate statistics and neural networks.

PubMed

Curado, Leone F A; Musis, Carlo R DE; Cunha, Cristiano R DA; Rodrigues, Thiago R; Pereira, Vinicius M R; Nogueira, José S; Sanches, Luciana

2016-09-01

The study of radiation entrance and exit dynamics and energy consumption in a system is important for understanding the environmental processes that rule the biosphere-atmosphere interactions of all ecosystems. This study provides an analysis of the interaction of energy in the form of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the Pantanal, a Brazilian wetland forest, by studying the variation of PAR reflectance and its interaction with local rainfall. The study site is located in Private Reserve of Natural Heritage, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, where the vegetation is a monodominant forest of Vochysia divergens Phol. The results showed a high correlation between the reflection of visible radiation and rainfall; however, the behavior was not the same at the three heights studied. An analysis of the hourly variation of the reflected waves also showed the seasonality of these phenomena in relation to the dry and rainy seasons. A predictive model for PAR was developed with a neural network that has a hidden layer, and it showed a determination coefficient of 0.938. This model showed that the Julian day and time of measurements had an inverse association with the wind profile and a direct association with the relative humidity profile.

AmeriFlux US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak)

DOE Data Explorer

Drake, Bert [Smithsonian Environmental Research Center; Hinkle, Ross [University of Central Florida

2016-01-01

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS2 Kennedy Space Center (scrub oak). Site Description - The Kennedy Space Center Scrub Oak site is located within the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on the east coast of central Florida. Situated in a 10 ha scrub oak ecosystem, the surrounding stand was completely burned by a prescribed fire in 1996. The purpose of the burn was to control understory fuel load, which has been a common practice since 1969. Within a few weeks of the 1996 burn, the stand began to naturally regenerate from roots and rhizomes. Most scrub oak stands in the region undergo a 7 to 10 year disturbance cycle, mostly related to fire or hurricane activity. A severe drought gripped most of Florida beginning in 1998 until the later half of 2001 resulting in four years of relatively low amount of annual rainfall. Exceptionally high annual rainfall amount in 2004 was the result of a pair of hurricanes that hit the area in August and September of 2004. Prevaling wind directions for the site are as follows: W to NW in the winter, afternoon E sea breeze in the summer.

Rainfall and hydrological stability alter the impact of top predators on food web structure and function.

PubMed

Marino, Nicholas A C; Srivastava, Diane S; MacDonald, A Andrew M; Leal, Juliana S; Campos, Alice B A; Farjalla, Vinicius F

2017-02-01

Climate change will alter the distribution of rainfall, with potential consequences for the hydrological dynamics of aquatic habitats. Hydrological stability can be an important determinant of diversity in temporary aquatic habitats, affecting species persistence and the importance of predation on community dynamics. As such, prey are not only affected by drought-induced mortality but also the risk of predation [a non-consumptive effect (NCE)] and actual consumption by predators [a consumptive effect (CE)]. Climate-induced changes in rainfall may directly, or via altered hydrological stability, affect predator-prey interactions and their cascading effects on the food web, but this has rarely been explored, especially in natural food webs. To address this question, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their aquatic food web, composed of predatory damselfly larvae, macroinvertebrate prey and bacteria. We manipulated the presence and consumption ability of damselfly larvae under three rainfall scenarios (ambient, few large rainfall events and several small rainfall events), recorded the hydrological dynamics within bromeliads and examined the effects on macroinvertebrate colonization, nutrient cycling and bacterial biomass and turnover. Despite our large perturbations of rainfall, rainfall scenario had no effect on the hydrological dynamics of bromeliads. As a result, macroinvertebrate colonization and nutrient cycling depended on the hydrological stability of bromeliads, with no direct effect of rainfall or predation. In contrast, rainfall scenario determined the direction of the indirect effects of predators on bacteria, driven by both predator CEs and NCEs. These results suggest that rainfall and the hydrological stability of bromeliads had indirect effects on the food web through changes in the CEs and NCEs of predators. We suggest that future studies should consider the importance of the variability in hydrological dynamics among habitats as well as the biological mechanisms underlying the ecological responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rainfall erosivity in the Fukushima Prefecture: implications for radiocesium mobilization and migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laceby, J. Patrick; Chartin, Caroline; Degan, Francesca; Onda, Yuichi; Evrard, Olivier; Cerdan, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie

2015-04-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011 led to the fallout of predominantly radiocesium (137Cs and 134Cs) on soils of the Fukushima Prefecture. This radiocesium was primarily fixated to fine soil particles. Subsequently, rainfall and snow melt run-off events result in significant quantities of radiocesium being eroded and transported throughout the coastal catchments and ultimately exported to the Pacific Ocean. Erosion models, such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), relate rainfall directly to soil erosion in that an increase in rainfall one month will directly result in a proportional increase in sediment generation. Understanding the rainfall regime of the region is therefore fundamental to modelling and predicting long-term radiocesium export. Here, we analyze rainfall data for ~40 stations within a 100 km radius of the FDNPP. First we present general information on the rainfall regime in the region based on monthly and annual rainfall totals. Second we present general information on rainfall erosivity, the R-factor of the USLE equation and its relationship to the general rainfall data. Third we examine rainfall trends over the last 100 years at several of the rainfall stations to understand temporal trends and whether ~20 years of data is sufficient to calculate the R-factor for USLE models. Fourth we present monthly R-factor maps for the Fukushima coastal catchments impacted by the FDNPP accident. The variability of the rainfall in the region, particularly during the typhoon season, is likely resulting in a similar variability in the transfer and migration of radiocesium throughout the coastal catchments of the Fukushima Prefecture. Characterizing the region's rainfall variability is fundamental to modelling sediment and the concomitant radiocesium migration and transfer throughout these catchments and ultimately to the Pacific Ocean.

A quantitative assessment of the contributions of climatic indicators to changes in nutrients and oxygen levels in a shallow reservoir in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chen; Zhang, Wenna; Liu, Hanan; Gao, Xueping; Huang, Yixuan

2017-06-01

Climate change has an indirect effect on water quality in freshwater ecosystems, but it is difficult to assess the contribution of climate change to the complex system. This study explored to what extent climatic indicators (air temperature, wind speed, and rainfall) influence nutrients and oxygen levels in a shallow reservoir, Yuqiao Reservoir, China. The study comprises three parts—describing the temporal trends of climatic indicators and water quality parameters during the period 1992-2011, analyzing the potential impacts of climate on water quality, and finally developing a quantitative assessment to evaluate how climatic factors govern nutrient levels in the reservoir. Our analyses showed that the reservoir experienced substantial cold periods (1992-2001) followed by a warm period (2002-2011). The results showed that increasing air temperature in spring, autumn, and winter and increasing annual wind speed decrease total phosphorus (TP) concentration in the reservoir in spring, summer, and winter. According to the quantitative assessment, the increase in air temperature in spring and winter had a larger contribution to the decrease in TP concentration (47.2 and 64.1%), compared with the influence from decreased wind speed and rainfall. The field data suggest that nutrients decline due to enhanced uptake by macrophytes in years when spring was warmer and the macrophytes started to grow earlier in the season. The increasing wind speed and air temperature in spring also significantly contribute to the increase in dissolved oxygen concentration. This study helps managers to foresee how potential future climate change might influence water quality in similar lake ecosystems.

On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E.R.

1979-09-01

The energies involved in the general circulation of the atmosphere, especially the zonal available potential energy, show considerable interannual variability, suggesting the presence of various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean-atmosphere system. Sea-surface temperature (SST) variations appear to have some effect on the hydrological cycle. The possible existence of feedback mechanisms between ocean and atmosphere seem to be evident in some of the data from the North Pacific and North Atlantic. One of these proposed mechanisms involves the variation in the convergence between the North and South Pacific trade-wind systems and is strongly reflected in rainfall variability within the drymore » region of the equatorial Pacific. Similar variations appear in low-latitude SST anomalies. The convergence between the two trade-wind systems in the Atlantic region also undergoes marked interannual variations. This quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in trade-wind convergence over the Atlantic appears to be tied to the global QBO of equatorial stratospheric winds and to regional rainfall regimes in the dry region of northeastern Brazil. A variability pattern of SST's with a QBO has been detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's are pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. It is also suggested that interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.« less

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Castaneda, Mario; Held, Matthew D.

2002-01-01

The arrival of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras in the latter part of the 1998 hurricane season produced effects that were unprecedented in their widespread nature throughout Central America. After winds from the storm had blown down more than 70 percent of the conifer forest on the Bay Island of Guanaja, the hurricane turned inland and stalled over the mainland of Honduras for 3 days. The resulting deluge of rainfall produced devastating flooding and landslides that resulted in more than 9,000 fatalities and 3 million people displaced. Although the eye of Hurricane Mitch passed through the northern part of Honduras, the greatest rainfall totals and intensities occurred in the southern part of the country near Choluteca. For the three days October 29-31, 1998, total rainfall at Choluteca exceeded 900 mm. Not surprisingly, it was in this area that the highest landslide concentrations occurred.

Developing Methods For Linking Surficial Aquifers With Localized Rainfall Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafrenz, W. B.; van Gaalen, J. F.

2008-12-01

Water level hydrographs of the surficial aquifer can be evaluated to identify both the cause and consequence of water supply development. Rainfall, as a source of direct recharge and as a source of delayed or compounded recharge, is often the largest influence on surficial aquifer water level responses. It is clear that proximity of the rain gauge to the observation well is a factor in the degree of correlation, but in central Florida, USA, rainfall patterns change seasonally, with latitude, and with distance from the coast . Thus, for a location in central Florida, correlation of rain events with observed hydrograph responses depends on both distance and direction from an observation well to a rain gauge. In this study, we examine the use of extreme value analysis as a method of selecting the best rainfall data set for describing a given surficial aquifer monitor well. A surficial aquifer monitor well with a substantial suite of data is compared to a series of rainfall data sets from gauges ranging from meters to tens of kilometers in distance from the monitor well. The gauges vary in a wide range of directions from the monitor well in an attempt to identify both a method for rainfall gauge selection to be associated with the monitor well. Each rainfall gauge is described by a correlation coefficient with respect to the surficial aquifer water level data.

The dynamics of rainfall interception by a seasonal temperate rainforest.

Treesearch

Timothy E. Link; Mike Unsworth; Danny Marks

2004-01-01

Net canopy interception (Inet) during rainfall in an old-growth Douglas-fir-western hemlock ecosystem was 22.8 and 25.0% of the gross rainfall (PG) for 1999 and 2000, respectively. The average direct throughfall proportion (p) and canopy storage capacity (

Application of two direct runoff prediction methods in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepulveda, N.

1997-01-01

Two methods for predicting direct runoff from rainfall data were applied to several basins and the resulting hydrographs compared to measured values. The first method uses a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph to predict direct runoff through its convolution with the excess rainfall hyetograph. The second method shows how the resulting hydraulic routing flow equation from a kinematic wave approximation is solved using a spectral method based on the matrix representation of the spatial derivative with Chebyshev collocation and a fourth-order Runge-Kutta time discretization scheme. The calibrated Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration parameters are obtained by minimizing the sum, over several rainfall events, of absolute differences between the total excess rainfall volume computed from the GA equations and the total direct runoff volume computed from a hydrograph separation technique. The improvement made in predicting direct runoff using a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with the ephemeral and perennial stream network instead of the strictly perennial stream network is negligible. The hydraulic routing scheme presented here is highly accurate in predicting the magnitude and time of the hydrograph peak although the much faster unit hydrograph method also yields reasonable results.

A Geospatial Database for Wind and Solar Energy Applications: The Kingdom of Bahrain Study Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Joburi, Khalil; Dahman, Nidal

2017-11-01

This research is aimed at designing, implementing, and testing a geospatial database for wind and solar energy applications in the Kingdom of Bahrain. All decision making needed to determine economic feasibility and establish site location for wind turbines or solar panels depends primarily on geospatial feature theme information and non-spatial (attribute) data for wind, solar, rainfall, temperature and weather characteristics of a particular region. Spatial data includes, but is not limited to, digital elevation, slopes, land use, zonings, parks, population density, road utility maps, and other related information. Digital elevations for over 450,000 spot at 50 m spatial horizontal resolution plus field surveying and GPS (at selected locations) was obtained from the Surveying and Land Registration Bureau (SLRB). Road, utilities, and population density are obtained from the Central Information Organization (CIO). Land use zoning, recreational parks, and other data are obtained from the Ministry of Municipalities and Agricultural Affairs. Wind, solar, humidity, rainfall, and temperature data are obtained from the Ministry of Transportation, Civil Aviation Section. LandSat Satellite and others images are obtained from NASA and online sources respectively. The collected geospatial data was geo-referenced to Ain el-Abd UTM Zone 39 North. 3D Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-50 m spatial resolutions was created using SLRB spot elevations. Slope and aspect maps were generate based on the DEM. Supervised image classification to identify open spaces was performed utilizing satellite images. Other geospatial data was converted to raster format with the same cell resolution. Non-spatial data are entered as an attribute to spatial features. To eliminate ambiguous solution, multi-criteria GIS model is developed based on, vector (discrete point, line, and polygon representations) as well as raster model (continuous representation). The model was tested at the Al-Areen proposed project, a relatively small area (15 km2). Optimum site spatial location for the location of wind turbines and solar panels was determined and initial results indicates that the combination of wind and solar energy would be sufficient for the project to meet the energy demand at the present per capita consummation rate..

Detecting Emotional Contagion in Massive Social Networks

PubMed Central

Coviello, Lorenzo; Sohn, Yunkyu; Kramer, Adam D. I.; Marlow, Cameron; Franceschetti, Massimo; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.

2014-01-01

Happiness and other emotions spread between people in direct contact, but it is unclear whether massive online social networks also contribute to this spread. Here, we elaborate a novel method for measuring the contagion of emotional expression. With data from millions of Facebook users, we show that rainfall directly influences the emotional content of their status messages, and it also affects the status messages of friends in other cities who are not experiencing rainfall. For every one person affected directly, rainfall alters the emotional expression of about one to two other people, suggesting that online social networks may magnify the intensity of global emotional synchrony. PMID:24621792

Testing Taylor’s hypothesis in Amazonian rainfall fields during the WETAMC/LBA experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán; Zuluaga, Manuel D.

2005-11-01

Taylor's hypothesis (TH) for rainfall fields states that the spatial correlation of rainfall intensity at two points at the same instant of time can be equated with the temporal correlation at two instants of time at some fixed location. The validity of TH is tested in a set of 12 storms developed in Rondonia, southwestern Amazonia, Brazil, during the January-February 1999 Wet Season Atmospheric Meso-scale Campaign. The time Eulerian and Lagrangian Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) are estimated, as well as the time-averaged space ACF, using radar rainfall rates of storms spanning between 3.2 and 23 h, measured at 7-10-min time resolution, over a circle of 100 km radius, at 2 km spatial resolution. TH does not hold in 9 out of the 12 studied storms, due to their erratic trajectories and very low values of zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, independently from underlying atmospheric stability conditions. TH was shown to hold for 3 storms, up to a cutoff time scale of 10-15 min, which is closely related to observed features of the life cycle of convective cells in the region. Such cutoff time scale in Amazonian storms is much shorter than the 40 min identified in mid-latitude convective storms, due to much higher values of CAPE and smaller values of storm speed in Amazonian storms as compared to mid-latitude ones, which in turn contribute to a faster destruction of the rainfall field isotropy. Storms satisfying TH undergo smooth linear trajectories over space, and exhibit the highest negative values of maximum, mean and minimum zonal wind velocity at 700 hPa, within narrow ranges of atmospheric stability conditions. Non-dimensional parameters involving CAPE (maximum, mean and minimum) and CINE (mean) are identified during the storms life cycle, for which TH holds: CAPE mean/CINE mean = [30-35], CAPE max/CINE mean = [32-40], and CAPE min/CINE mean = [22-28]. These findings are independent upon the timing of storms within the diurnal cycle. Also, the estimated Eulerian time ACF's decay faster than the time-averaged space and the Lagrangian time ACF's, irrespectively of TH validity. The Eulerian ACF's exhibit shorter e-folding times, reflecting smaller correlations over short time scales, but also shorter scale of fluctuation, reflecting less persistence in time than over space. No significant associations (linear, exponential or power law) were found between estimated e-folding times and scale of fluctuation, with all estimates of CAPE and CINE. Secondary correlation maxima appear between 50 and 70 min in the Lagrangian time ACF's for storms satisfying TH. No differences were found in the behavior of each of the three ACF's for storms developed during either the Easterly or Westerly zonal wind regimes which characterize the development of meso-scale convective systems over the region. These results have important implications for modelling and downscaling rainfall fields over tropical land areas.

3 CFR 8386 - Proclamation 8386 of May 26, 2009. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2009

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... coastal and inland communities. These powerful storms can cause heavy rainfall, high winds, tornadoes, and storm surges, which can in turn bring severe flooding, power outages, damage to homes and businesses... property of those who face advancing storms. Americans can take basic steps before a hurricane arrives. The...

Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

1991-01-01

On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Wang-chun

2013-04-01

The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user-configurable manner. Verification indicates that the service achieves a detection rate of 76% and a false alarm rate of 26% in the first 30 minute forecast. The skill decreases as the forecast range extends, with the detection rate lowered to 40% and false alarm rate increased to 63% for the two hour forecast. A number of factors affect the accuracy of the forecast, notably the anomalous propagation, the sensitivity and vertical coverage of the radar, as well as the growth and decay of the rain echoes. The service has been gaining popularity rapidly since launch, and has already registered over 12,000 users who have opted for notifications. The successful launch of the location-based rainfall nowcast service in Hong Kong and favourable verification results reveal the high practicality of such services.

Mentoring Temporal and Spatial Variations in Rainfall across Wadi Ar-Rumah, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, T.; Ahmed, M.

2015-12-01

Across the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the fresh water resources are limited only to those found in aquifer systems. Those aquifers were believed to be recharged during the previous wet climatic period but still receiving modest local recharge in interleaving dry periods such as those prevailing at present. Quantifying temporal and spatial variabilities in rainfall patterns, magnitudes, durations, and frequencies is of prime importance when it comes to sustainable management of such aquifer systems. In this study, an integrated approach, using remote sensing and field data, was used to assess the past, the current, and the projected spatial and temporal variations in rainfall over one of the major watersheds in KSA, Wadi Ar-Rumah. This watershed was selected given its larger areal extent and population intensity. Rainfall data were extracted from (1) the Climate Prediction Centers (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; spatial coverage: global; spatial resolution: 2.5° × 2.5°; temporal coverage: January 1979 to April 2015; temporal resolution: monthly), and (2) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; spatial coverage: 50°N to 50°S; spatial resolution: 0.25° × 0.25°; temporal coverage: January 1998 to March 2015; temporal resolution: 3 hours) and calibrated against rainfall measurements extracted from rain gauges. Trends in rainfall patterns were examined over four main investigation periods: period I (01/1979 to 12/1985), period II (01/1986 to 12/1992), period III (01/1993 to 12/2002), and period IV (01/2003 to 12/2014). Our findings indicate: (1) a significant increase (+14.19 mm/yr) in rainfall rates were observed during period I, (2) a significant decrease in rainfall rates were observed during periods II (-5.80 mm/yr), III (-9.38 mm/yr), and IV (-2.46 mm/yr), and (3) the observed variations in rainfall rates are largely related to the temporal variations in the northerlies (also called northwesterlies) and the monsoonal wind regimes.

Water quality prediction of marine recreational beaches receiving watershed baseflow and stormwater runoff in southern California, USA.

PubMed

He, Li-Ming Lee; He, Zhen-Li

2008-05-01

Beach advisories are issued to the public in California when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), including total coliform, fecal coliform (or Escherichia coli), and Enterococcus, exceed their recreational water health standards, or when the amount of a rainfall event is above the pre-determined threshold. However, it is not fully understood about how and to what degree stormwater runoff or baseflow exerts impacts on beach water quality. Furthermore, current laboratory methods used to determine the FIB levels take 18-96 h, which is too slow to keep pace with changes in FIB levels in water. Thus, a beach may not be posted when it is contaminated, and may be posted under advisory when bacterial levels have already decreased to within water quality standards. The study was designed to address the above critical issues. There were large temporal and spatial variations in FIB concentrations along two popular State Beaches in San Diego, CA, USA. The rainstorm-induced runoff from the watersheds exerts significant impacts on the marine recreational water quality of the beaches adjacent to lagoons during the first 24-48 h after a rain event. The large volume of stormwater runoff discharging to beaches caused high FIB concentrations in beach water not only at the lagoon outlet channel and the mixing zone, but also at the locations 90 m away from the channel northward or southward along the shoreline. The geomorphology of beach shoreline, distance from the outlet channel, wind strength, wind direction, tide height, wave height, rainfall, time lapse after a rainstorm, or channel flow rate played a role in affecting the distribution of FIB concentrations in beach water. Despite the great temporal and spatial variability of FIB concentrations along a shoreline, the artificial neural network-based models developed in this study are capable of successfully predicting FIB concentrations at different beaches, different locations, and different times under baseflow or rainstorm conditions. The models are based on readily measurable variables including temperature, conductivity, pH, turbidity, channel water flow, rainfall, and/or time lapse after a rainstorm. The established models will help fill the current gap between beach posting and actual water quality and make more meaningful and effective decisions on beach closures and advisories.

The Angola Low: relationship with southern African rainfall and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien; Berthou, Ségolène; Pergaud, Julien

2018-05-01

The main states of the Angola Low (AL) are identified using clustering analysis applied to daily anomalous patterns of 700-hPa wind vorticity over Angola and adjacent countries from November to March for the 1980/81-2014/15 period. At the daily timescale, we examine the extent to which the main states of the AL modulate daily rainfall over southern Africa. At the interannual timescale, we assess both the relationship between the occurrence of these AL states and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and the role of the AL in explaining ENSO's failure in driving southern African rainfall at times. Three reanalyses are considered to account for uncertainties induced by the scarcity of data available for assimilation over southern Africa. Three preferential states of the Angola Low are identified: AL state close to its seasonal climatology with slight zonal displacements, anomalously weak AL state and anomalously strong AL state with meridional displacements. These different states all significantly modulate daily southern African rainfall. Near-climatological AL state promotes wet rainfall anomalies over eastern subtropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over its western part. A slight westward shift in the near-climatological position of the AL leads to reversed zonal gradient in rainfall. The remaining regimes significantly modulate the meridional gradient in southern African rainfall. Anomalously weak and anomalously northward AL states promote wet rainfall anomalies over tropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over subtropical southern Africa. The reverse prevails for anomalously southward AL. At the interannual timescale, ENSO significantly modulates the seasonal occurrence of most AL states in the three reanalyses. Anomalously weak and southward AL states are more strongly correlated with regional rainfall than ENSO in all reanalyses, suggesting that accounting for AL variability may improve seasonal forecasts. Case study analysis of the major 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events suggests that the weak rainfall anomalies and strong seasonal AL in 1997/98 may result from counteracting effects between ENSO and Indian Ocean coupled modes of variability.

Expertise effects in cutaneous wind perception.

PubMed

Pluijms, Joost P; Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen; Bergmann Tiest, Wouter M; Mulder, Fabian A; Savelsbergh, Geert J P

2015-08-01

We examined whether expertise effects are present in cutaneous wind perception. To this end, we presented wind stimuli consisting of different wind directions and speeds in a wind simulator. The wind simulator generated wind stimuli from 16 directions and with three speeds by means of eight automotive wind fans. Participants were asked to judge cutaneously perceived wind directions and speeds without having access to any visual or auditory information. Expert sailors (n = 6), trained to make the most effective use of wind characteristics, were compared to less-skilled sailors (n = 6) and to a group of nonsailors (n = 6). The results indicated that expert sailors outperformed nonsailors in perceiving wind direction (i.e., smaller mean signed errors) when presented with low wind speeds. This suggests that expert sailors are more sensitive in picking up differences in wind direction, particularly when confronted with low wind speeds that demand higher sensitivity.

Mitigation of Sri Lanka Island Effects in Colombo Sounding Data during DYNAMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciesielski, P. E.; Johnson, R. H.; Yoneyama, K.

2013-12-01

During the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, upper-air soundings were launched at Colombo, Sri Lanka as part of the enhanced northern sounding array (NSA) of the experiment. The Colombo soundings were affected at low-levels by diurnal heating of this large island and by flow blocking due to elevated terrain to the east of the Colombo site. Because of the large spacing between sounding sites, these small-scale effects are aliased onto the larger scale impacting analyses and atmospheric budgets over the DYNAMO NSA. To mitigate these local island effects on the large-scale budgets, a procedure was designed which uses ECMWF-analyzed fields in the vicinity of Sri Lanka to estimate open-ocean conditions (i.e, as if this island were not present). These 'unperturbed' ECMWF fields at low-levels are then merged with observed Colombo soundings. This procedure effectively mutes the blocking effects and large diurnal cycle observed in the low-level Colombo fields. In westerly flow regimes, adjusted Colombo winds increase the low-level westerlies by 2-3 m/s with a similar increase of the low-level easterlies in easterly flow regimes. In general, over the NSA the impact of the adjusted Colombo winds results in more low-level divergence (convergence), more mid-level subsidence (rising motion) and reduced (increased) rainfall during the westerly (easterly) wind regimes. In comparison to independent TRMM rainfall estimates, both the mean budget-derived rainfall and its temporal correlation are improved by using the adjusted Colombo soundings. In addition, use of the 'unperturbed' fields result in a more realistic moisture budget analyses, both in its diurnal cycle and during the build-up phase of the November MJO when a gradual deepening of apparent drying was observed. Overall, use of the adjusted Colombo soundings appears to have a beneficial impact on the NSA analyses and budgets.

Influence of Offshore Initial Moisture Field and Convection on the Development of Coastal Convection in a Heavy Rainfall Event over South China during the Pre-summer Rainy Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Rong; Sun, Jianhua; Fu, Shenming

2017-04-01

This paper utilizes the observation data from the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) and the numerical experiments to investigate the influence of moisture amount and convection development over the northern South China Sea on a heavy rainfall event in coastal South China on May 8, 2014. Intensive sounding and wind profiles data reveal that there existed a convergence region formed by the southwesterly and easterly jet in the Pearl River delta, which provided favorable conditions for the development of convection. Whether the initial relative humidity field was increased or decreased in the offshore area, or turning off sensible and latent heat release from the cumulus and microphysical processes, had significant effects on the intensity and movement of convection in the coastal areas of Guangdong owing to the adjustment of temperature and wind fields. Especially, when increasing offshore initial humidity, prosperous sea convection modified the circulation in the entire simulation area, and suppressed the development of convection over land. Moreover, if sensible and latent heat from cumulus and microphysical processes was turned off, the low-level jets could reach further north, and the convective system moved to the northeast in the later stage. These experiments indicate that offshore initial moisture filed and convection activity are indeed important for precipitation forecast in the coastal areas, therefore it's necessary to enhance offshore observation and data assimilation methods in the future.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, Fabio

2017-04-01

The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 86, pp. 264 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.002

Measurement accuracy of weighing and tipping-bucket rainfall intensity gauges under dynamic laboratory testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, M.; Lanza, L. G.; La Barbera, P.; Chan, P. W.

2014-07-01

The contribution of any single uncertainty factor in the resulting performance of infield rain gauge measurements still has to be comprehensively assessed due to the high number of real world error sources involved, such as the intrinsic variability of rainfall intensity (RI), wind effects, wetting losses, the ambient temperature, etc. In recent years the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) addressed these issues by fostering dedicated investigations, which revealed further difficulties in assessing the actual reference rainfall intensity in the field. This work reports on an extensive assessment of the OTT Pluvio2 weighing gauge accuracy when measuring rainfall intensity under laboratory dynamic conditions (time varying reference flow rates). The results obtained from the weighing rain gauge (WG) were also compared with a MTX tipping-bucket rain gauge (TBR) under the same test conditions. Tests were carried out by simulating various artificial precipitation events, with unsteady rainfall intensity, using a suitable dynamic rainfall generator. Real world rainfall data measured by an Ogawa catching-type drop counter at a field test site located within the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) were used as a reference for the artificial rain generation system. Results demonstrate that the differences observed between the laboratory and field performance of catching-type gauges are only partially attributable to the weather and operational conditions in the field. The dynamics of real world precipitation events is responsible for a large part of the measurement errors, which can be accurately assessed in the laboratory under controlled environmental conditions. This allows for new testing methodologies and the development of instruments with enhanced performance in the field.

Aerosol and Urban Land Use Effect on Rainfall Around Cities in Indo-Gangetic Basin From Observations and Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarangi, Chandan; Tripathi, S. N.; Qian, Yun; Kumar, Shailendra; Ruby Leung, L.

2018-04-01

Coupling of urban land use land cover (LULC) and aerosol loading on rainfall around cities in the Gangetic Basin (GB) is examined here. Long-term observations illustrate more rainfall at urban core and climatological downwind regions compared to the upwind regions of Kanpur, a metropolitan area located in central GB. In addition, analysis of a 15 day cloud resolving simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model also illustrated similar rainfall pattern around other major cities in the GB. Interestingly, the enhancement of downwind rainfall was greater than that over urban regions, and it was positively associated with both the urban area of the city and ambient aerosol loading during the propagating storm. Further, to gain a process-level understanding, a typical storm that propagated northwestward across Kanpur was simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting under three different scenarios. Case 1 has realistic LULC representation of Kanpur, while the grids representing the Kanpur urban region were replaced by cropland LULC pattern in Case 2. Comparison illustrated that urban heat island effect caused convergence of winds and moisture in the lower troposphere, which enhances convection over urban region and induced more rainfall over the urban core compared to upwind regions. Case 3 is similar to Case 1 but lower aerosol concentration (by a factor of 100) over the storm region. Analysis shows that aerosol-induced microphysical changes delay the initiation of warm rain (over the upwind region) but enhance ice phase particle formation in latter stages (over the urban and downwind regions) resulting in increase in downwind rainfall.

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using a Cloud-Mesoscale Model and TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Starr, David OC (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The urban heat island (UHI) has become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomena because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). The UHI has been documented in the literature to affect local and regional temperature distributions, wind patterns and air quality. The UHI can also impact the development of clouds and precipitation in and around cities. This paper will focus primarily on the UHI's impact on precipitation. In the past 30 years, several observational and climatological studies have theorized that the UHI can have a significant influence on mesoscale circulations and resulting precipitation (see Shepherd et al. 2002 for a thorough review). More recent studies have continued to validate and extend the findings from pre and post-METROMEX investigations. Shepherd et al. (2002) was one of the first (and possibly the first) attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Using a 15-month (spanning three years) analysis of mean rainfall rates, the cities of Atlanta, Montgomery, Dallas, Waco, and San Antonio were examined. Shepherd et al. (2002) found that the average percentage increase in mean rainfall rate in a hypothesized "downwind maximum impact area" over an "upwind control area" was 28.4% with a range of 14.6 to 51%. The typical distance of the downwind rainfall rate anomaly from the urban center was 30-60 km, consistent with earlier studies. This fact provides confidence that UHI-rainfall effects are real and detectable by TRMM satellite estimates.

Mortality associated with Hurricane Katrina--Florida and Alabama, August-October 2005.

PubMed

2006-03-10

On August 25, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall between Hallandale Beach and Aventura, Florida, as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Storm effects, primarily rain, flooding, and high winds, were substantial; certain areas reported nearly 12 inches of rainfall. After crossing southern Florida and entering the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane strengthened and made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane, with sustained winds of 125 mph. Katrina was one of the strongest hurricanes to strike the United States during the past 100 years and was likely the nation's costliest natural disaster to date. This report summarizes findings and recommendations from a review of mortality records of Florida's Medical Examiners Commission (FMEC) and the Alabama Department of Forensic Science (ADFS). CDC was invited by the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) and the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) to assess the mortality related to Hurricane Katrina. The mortality review was intended to provide county-based information that would be used to 1) define the impact of the hurricane, 2) describe the etiology of deaths, and 3) identify strategies to prevent or reduce future hurricane-related mortality. Combined, both agencies identified five, 23, and 10 deaths, respectively, that were directly, indirectly, or possibly related to Hurricane Katrina. Information from the characterization of these deaths will be used to reduce hurricane-related mortality through early community awareness of hurricane-related risk, prevention measures, and effective communication of a coordinated hurricane response plan.

Simulation of local convective rainfall over metropolitan area on 16 August 2015 using high resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Min, K. H.

2017-12-01

We investigated the ability of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (nested grid spacing at 500 m) in simulating convective precipitation event over the Seoul metropolitan area on 16 August 2015. Intense rainfall occurred from 0930 UTC to 1030 UTC and subsequent trailing precipitation lasted until 1400 UTC. The synoptic condition for the convective event was characterized by a large value of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at the outer edge of a meso-high pressure system. Observational analysis showed that triggering mechanism for convective rainfall was provided by the convergence of northeasterly wind which was driven by a cold pool in the northeastern Kyonggi province. The cold pool formed after heavy rain occurred in northeastern Kyonggi province at 0500UTC. Several experiments were performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of different initial conditions (IC12, IC18, IC00, IC06) and the impact of data assimilation (IC06A) on simulating the convective event. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) appeared to vary widely among the experiments, depending on the timing of ICs that were chosen. QPF amount was underestimated in all experiments when data assimilation was not performed. Among the four experiments, QPF amounts and locations were better simulated in the 1200 UTC 15 August (IC12) run due to large values of CAPE in late afternoon and the presence of low-level convergence zone in the metropolitan area. Although 0600 UTC 16 August (IC06) run simulated the largest CAPE in late afternoon, the location and amount of heavy rainfall were significantly different from observations. IC06 did not simulate the convergence of low-level wind associated with the mesoscale cold pool. However, when assimilation of surface observations and radar data at 0600 UTC was performed (IC06A), the simulation reproduced the location and amount of rainfall reasonably well, indicating that high-resolution NWP model with data assimilation can predict the local convective precipitation event with a short-life time (1 3 hours) effectively within 6 hours.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

14 CFR 139.323 - Traffic and wind direction indicators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Traffic and wind direction indicators. 139... CERTIFICATION OF AIRPORTS Operations § 139.323 Traffic and wind direction indicators. In a manner authorized by...) A wind cone that visually provides surface wind direction information to pilots. For each runway...

14 CFR 139.323 - Traffic and wind direction indicators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Traffic and wind direction indicators. 139... CERTIFICATION OF AIRPORTS Operations § 139.323 Traffic and wind direction indicators. In a manner authorized by...) A wind cone that visually provides surface wind direction information to pilots. For each runway...

14 CFR 139.323 - Traffic and wind direction indicators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Traffic and wind direction indicators. 139... CERTIFICATION OF AIRPORTS Operations § 139.323 Traffic and wind direction indicators. In a manner authorized by...) A wind cone that visually provides surface wind direction information to pilots. For each runway...

14 CFR 139.323 - Traffic and wind direction indicators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Traffic and wind direction indicators. 139... CERTIFICATION OF AIRPORTS Operations § 139.323 Traffic and wind direction indicators. In a manner authorized by...) A wind cone that visually provides surface wind direction information to pilots. For each runway...

14 CFR 139.323 - Traffic and wind direction indicators.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Traffic and wind direction indicators. 139... CERTIFICATION OF AIRPORTS Operations § 139.323 Traffic and wind direction indicators. In a manner authorized by...) A wind cone that visually provides surface wind direction information to pilots. For each runway...

RUSLE2015, GIS-RWEQ and CENTURY: new modelling integration for soil loss and carbon fluxes at European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Lugato, Emanuele

2016-04-01

Land degradation through erosion has been identified as major threat to European soils and agriculture. During the last years, the Directorates General for Agriculture and for Environment (plus EUROSTAT) require formal assessments and indicators on the state of soil erosion for the European Union. Moreover, the European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) is the main data repository for soil threats at European scale. To meet these needs we have worked with recognized research institutes and scientists to develop a series of pan-EU modelling tools that estimate soil erosion by water and wind. Over the past three years, the European Commission Joint Research Centre has worked to develop a modified RUSLE modelling approach, named RUSLE2015 and the necessary input factors. These have all been peer reviewed and published as individual papers in different refereed journals. The published soil erodibility map for Europe has been modelled with the latest state of the art soil data (LUCAS) and a robust geo-statistical model (Science of Total Environment, 479-480: 189-200). Rainfall erosivity has been modelled after an extensive data collection of high temporal resolution rainfall data and the compilation of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) (Science of Total Environment, 511: 801-814). Cover-Management factor has been modelled taking into account crop composition, management practices (reduced tillage, plant residues, cover crops) and remote sensing data on vegetation density (Land Use policy, 48C: 38-50). Topography has been modelled with the recently published Digital Elevation Model at 25m resolution (Geosciences, 5: 117-126). Conservation and support practices have included the Good Agricultural Environmental Condition (GAEC database) and the 270,000 earth observations of LUCAS survey (Environmental Science & Policy 51: 23-34). The new assessment of soil erosion by water in Europe has been recently published (Environmental Science & Policy. 54: 438-447) and subsequently the core message focusing on soil erosion in agricultural lands was published in a recent correspondence in Nature (Nature, 526, 195). Additionally, the soil erosion potential for the European Union's forests was modelled using the high-resolution Global Forest Cover Loss map (2000-2012) and taking into consideration the lodging, forest cuts and forest fires (Ecological Indicators, 60:1208-1220). The first qualitative assessment of wind erosion at European scale has been done using the Index of Land Susceptibility to Wind Erosion (ILSWE) (Sustainability, 7(7): 8823-8836). The wind-erodible fraction of soil (EF) is one of the key parameters for estimating the susceptibility of soil to wind erosion (Geoderma, 232-234: 471-478). ILSWE was created by combining spatiotemporal variations of the most influential wind erosion factors such as climatic erosivity, soil erodibility, vegetation cover and landscape roughness) (Land Degradation & Development, 10.1002/ldr.2318). The quantitative assessment of wind erosion has been concluded recently using Revised Wind Erosion Equation (GIS-RWEQ). Modelling the lateral carbon fluxes due to soil erosion both at national scale (Land Use Policy, 50: 408-421) and at European scale (Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.13198) is an important milestone in climate change perspective. We coupled soil erosion into a biogeochemistry model, running at 1 km2 resolution across the agricultural soils of the European Union (EU). In the future, the soil erosion (by water and wind) modelling activities will incorporate temporal variability, sediment transport and economic assessments of land degradation.

Why the predictions for monsoon rainfall fail?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.

2016-12-01

To be in line with the Global Land/Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) international research scheme, this study discusses classical arguments about the feedback mechanisms between land surface and precipitation to improve the predictions of African monsoon rainfall. In order to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, several data sets will be presented. First, in-situ soil moisture field measurements acquired by the AMMA field campaign will be shown together with rain gauge data. This data set will validate various model and satellite data sets such as NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models, SMOS soil moisture. To relate soil moisture with precipitation, two approaches are employed: one approach makes a direct comparison between the spatial distributions of soil moisture as an absolute value and rainfall, while the other measures a temporal evolution of the consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative change within the same soil moisture data set over time) and rainfall occurrences. Consecutive dry days shows consistent results of a negative feedback between soil moisture and rainfall across various data sets, contrary to the direct comparison of soil moisture state. This negative mechanism needs attention, as most climate models usually focus on a positive feedback only. The approach of consecutive dry days takes into account the systematic errors in satellite observations, reminding us that it may cause the misinterpretation to directly compare model with satellite data, due to their difference in data retrievals. This finding is significant, as the climate indices employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modelling archive are based on the atmospheric variable rathr than land.

Effect of topography on microclimate in southwestern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Richard S. Sartz

1972-01-01

Ridge and coulee terrain has little effect on point rainfall, but snowpack accumulation is affected by degree of slope and aspect. North slopes accumulate about 50% more snow. Soil water depletion is little affected by aspect. South slopes receive more insulation than north slopes, but temperature differences are slight and may result more from wind differences than...

Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.

2013-12-01

A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.

Process-based rainfall interception by small trees in Northern China: The effect of rainfall traits and crown structure characteristics

Treesearch

Xiang Li; Qingfu Xiao; Jianzhi Niu; Salli Dymond; Natalie S. van Doorn; Xinxiao Yu; Baoyuan Xie; Xizhi Lv; Kebin Zhang; Jiao Li

2016-01-01

Rainfall interception by a tree's crown is one of the most important hydrological processes in an ecosystem, yet the mechanisms of interception are not well understood. A process-based experiment was conducted under five simulated rainfall intensities (from 10 to 150 mm h−1) to directly quantify tree crown interception and examine the effect...

The Amazon forest-rainfall feedback: the roles of transpiration and interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Stefan; Staal, Arie; Tuinenburg, Obbe

2017-04-01

In the Amazon, deep-rooted trees increase local transpiration and high tree cover increase local interception evaporation. These increased local evapotranspiration fluxes to the atmosphere have both positive effects on forests down-wind, as they stimulate rainfall. Although important for the functioning of the Amazon, we have an inadequate assessment on the strength and the timing of these forest-rainfall feedbacks. In this study we (i) estimate local forest transpiration and local interception evaporation, (ii) simulate the trajectories of these moisture flows through the atmosphere and (iii) quantify their contributions to the forest-rainfall feedback for the whole Amazon basin. To determine the atmospheric moisture flows in tropical South America we use a Lagrangian moisture tracking algorithm on 0.25° (c. 25 km) resolution with eight atmospheric layers on a monthly basis for the period 2003-2015. With our approach we account for multiple re-evaporation cycles of this moisture. We also calculate for each month the potential effects of forest loss on evapotranspiration. Combined, these calculations allow us to simulate the effects of land-cover changes on rainfall in downwind areas and estimate the effect on the forest. We found large regional and temporal differences in the importance how forest contribute to rainfall. The transpiration-rainfall feedback is highly important during the dry season. Between September-November, when large parts of the Amazon are at the end of the dry season, more than 50% of the rainfall is caused by the forests upstream. This means that droughts in the Amazon are alleviated by the forest. Furthermore, we found that much moisture cycles several times during its trajectory over the Amazon. After one evapotranspiration-rainfall cycle, more than 40% of the moisture is re-evaporated again. The interception-evaporation feedback is less important during droughts. Finally from our analysis, we show that the forest-rainfall feedback is essential for the resilience of the south-western and northern parts of the Amazon forest. Without the forest-rainfall feedbacks, these forest wouldn't exist.

Low Frequency Oscillations in Assimilated Global Datasets Using TRMM Rainfall Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Li; Yang, Song; Zhang, Zhan; Hou, Arthur; Olson, William S.

2004-01-01

Global datasets for the period May-August 1998 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) with/without assimilated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation are analyzed against European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) output, NOAA observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and TRMM measured rainfall. The purpose of this study is to investigate the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in GEOS assimilated global datasets, noting the impact of TRMM observed rainfall on the MJO in GEOS data assimilations. A space-time analysis of the OLR data indicates that the observed OLR exhibits a spectral maximum for eastward-propagating wavenumber 1-3 disturbances with periods of 20-60 days in the 0deg-30degN latitude band. The assimilated OLR has a similar feature but with a smaller magnitude. However, OLR spectra from assimilations including TRMM rainfall data show better agreement with observed OLR spectra than spectra from assimilations without TRMM rainfall. Similar results are found for wavenumber 4-6 disturbances. There is a spectral peak for eastward-propagating wavenumber 4-6 disturbances with periods of 20-40 days near the equator, while for westward-moving disturbances, a spectral peak is noted for periods of 30-50 days near 25degN. To isolate the MJO, a 30-50 day band filter is selected for this study. It was found that the eastward-propagating waves from the band-filtered observed OLR between 10degs- 10degN are located in the eastern hemisphere. Similar patterns are evident in surface rainfall and the 850 hPa wind field. Assimilation of TRMM-observed rainfall reveals more distinct MJO features in the analysis than without rainfall assimilation. Similar analyses are also conducted over the Indian summer monsoon and East Asia summer monsoon regions, where the MJO is strongly related to the summer monsoon active-break patterns.

Machine Learing Applications on a Radar Wind Profiler Deployment During the ARM GoAmazon2014/5 Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giangrande, S. E.; WANG, D.; Hardin, J. C.; Mitchell, J.

2017-12-01

As part of the 2 year Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign, the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) collected a unique set of observations in a region of strong climatic significance near Manacapuru, Brazil. An important example for the beneficial observational record obtained by ARM during this campaign was that of the Radar Wind Profiler (RWP). This dataset has been previously documented for providing critical convective cloud vertical air velocity retrievals and precipitation properties (e.g., calibrated reflectivity factor Z, rainfall rates) under a wide variety of atmospheric conditions. Vertical air motion estimates to within deep convective cores such as those available from this RWP system have been previously identified as critical constraints for ongoing global climate modeling activities and deep convective cloud process studies. As an extended deployment within this `green ocean' region, the RWP site and collocated AMF surface gauge instrumentation experienced a unique hybrid of tropical and continental precipitation conditions, including multiple wet and dry season precipitation regimes, convective and organized stratiform storm dynamics and contributions to rainfall accumulation, pristine aerosol conditions of the locale, as well as the effects of the Manaus, Brazil, mega city pollution plume. For hydrological applications and potential ARM products, machine learning methods developed using this dataset are explored to demonstrate advantages in geophysical retrievals when compared to traditional methods. Emphasis is on performance improvements when providing additional information on storm structure and regime or echo type classifications. Since deep convective cloud dynamic insights (core updraft/downdraft properties) are difficult to obtain directly by conventional radars that also observe radar reflectivity factor profiles similar to RWP systems, we also consider possible machine learning applications to inform on (statistical) proxy convective relationships between observed convective core dynamics and radar microphysical properties that are otherwise not easily related by clear physical process paths using existing radar networks.

Detection of the spectroscopic signatures of explosives and their degradation products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florian, Vivian; Cabanzo, Andrea; Baez, Bibiana; Correa, Sandra; Irrazabal, Maik; Briano, Julio G.; Castro, Miguel E.; Hernandez-Rivera, Samuel P.

2005-06-01

Detection and removal of antipersonnel and antitank landmines is a great challenge and a worldwide enviromental and humanitarian problem. Sensors tuned on the spectroscopic signature of the chemicals released from mines are a potential solution. Enviromental factors (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall precipitation, wind, sun irradiation, pressure, etc.) as well as soil characteristics (water content, compaction, porosity, chemical composition, particle size distribution, topography, vegetation, etc), have a direct impact on the fate and transport of the chemicals released from landmines. Chemicals such as TNT, DNT and their degradation products, are semi-volatile, and somewhat soluble in water. Also, they may adsorb strongly to soil particles, and are susceptible to degradation by microorganisms, light, or chemical agents. Here we show an experimental procedure to quantify the effect of the above variables on the spectroscopic signature. A number of soil tanks under controlled conditions are used to study the effect of temperature, water content, relative humidity and light radiation.

Assessment of ozone variations and meteorological effects in an urban area in the Mediterranean Coast.

PubMed

Dueñas, C; Fernández, M C; Cañete, S; Carretero, J; Liger, E

2002-11-01

Ozone concentrations are valuable indicators of possible health and environmental impacts. However, they are also used to monitor changes and trends in the sources of both ozone and its precursors. For this purpose, the influence of meteorological variables is a confusing factor. This study presents an analysis of a year of ozone concentrations measured in a coastal Spanish city. Firstly, the aim of this study was to perceive the daily, monthly and seasonal variation patterns of ozone concentrations. Diurnal cycles are presented by season and the fit of the data to a normal distribution is tested. In order to assess ozone behaviour under temperate weather conditions, local meteorological variables (wind direction and speed, temperature, relative humidity, pressure and rainfall) were monitored together with ozone concentrations. The main relationships we could observe in these analyses were then used to obtain a regression equation linking diurnal ozone concentrations in summer with meteorological parameters.

The effects of daily weather variables on psychosis admissions to psychiatric hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McWilliams, Stephen; Kinsella, Anthony; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard

2013-07-01

Several studies have noted seasonal variations in admission rates of patients with psychotic illnesses. However, the changeable daily meteorological patterns within seasons have never been examined in any great depth in the context of admission rates. A handful of small studies have posed interesting questions regarding a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (especially heat waves) and sunshine. In this study, we used simple non-parametric testing and more complex ARIMA and time-series regression analysis to examine whether daily meteorological patterns (wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, sunshine, sunlight and temperature) exert an influence on admission rates for psychotic disorders across 12 regions in Ireland. Although there were some weak but interesting trends for temperature, barometric pressure and sunshine, the meteorological patterns ultimately did not exert a clinically significant influence over admissions for psychosis. Further analysis is needed.

Low elevation angle KU-band satellite measurements at Austin, Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogel, Wolfhard J.; Torrence, Geoffrey W.; Ranganathan, Murali

1989-01-01

At low elevation angles, the propagation of satellite signals is affected by precipitation as well as by inhomogeneties of the refractive index. Whereas precipitation causes fades for relatively small percentages of time, the refractive index variability causes scintillations which can be observed for most of the time. An experiment is now under way in Austin, Texas, in which the right hand circularly polarized 12 GHz beacon of INTELSAT-V/F10 is observed at a 5.8 deg elevation angle, along with the radiometric sky temperature, rainfall rate, humidity, pressure, temperature, and wind speed and direction. The objective of these measurements is to accumulate a database over a period of 2 years and to analyze the probabilities and dynamical behavior of the signal variations in relation to the meteorological parameters. The hardware and software used for the data acquisition and analysis is described and the results from the first year of measurements are presented.

Measurements of Wind Velocity and Direction Using Acoustic Reflection against Wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Ikumi; Wakatsuki, Naoto; Mizutani, Koichi; Ishii, Masahisa; Okushima, Limi; Sase, Sadanori

2008-05-01

The measurements of wind velocity and direction using an acoustic reflection against a wall are described. We aim to measure the spatial mean wind velocity and direction to be used for an air-conditioning system. The proposed anemometer consists of a single wall and two pairs of loudspeakers (SP) and microphones (MIC) that form a triangular shape. Two sound paths of direct and reflected waves are available. One is that of the direct wave and the other is that of the wave reflected on the wall. The times of flights (TOFs) of the direct and reflected waves can be measured using a single MIC because there is a difference in the TOF between direct and reflected waves. By using these TOFs, wind velocity and direction can be calculated. In the experiments, the wind velocities and directions were measured in a wind tunnel by changing the wind velocity. The wind direction was examined by changing the setup of the transducers. The measured values using the proposed and conventional anemometers agreed with each other. By using the wave reflected against a wall, wind velocities and directions can be measured using only two pairs of transducers, while four pairs are required in the case of conventional anemometers.

Heavy rainfall increases nestling mortality of an Arctic top predator: experimental evidence and long-term trend in peregrine falcons.

PubMed

Anctil, Alexandre; Franke, Alastair; Bêty, Joël

2014-03-01

Although animal population dynamics have often been correlated with fluctuations in precipitation, causal relationships have rarely been demonstrated in wild birds. We combined nest observations with a field experiment to investigate the direct effect of rainfall on survival of peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) nestlings in the Canadian Arctic. We then used historical data to evaluate if recent changes in the precipitation regime could explain the long-term decline of falcon annual productivity. Rainfall directly caused more than one-third of the recorded nestling mortalities. Juveniles were especially affected by heavy rainstorms (≥8 mm/day). Nestlings sheltered from rainfall by a nest box had significantly higher survival rates. We found that the increase in the frequency of heavy rain over the last three decades is likely an important factor explaining the recent decline in falcon nestling survival rates, and hence the decrease in annual breeding productivity of the population. Our study is among the first experimental demonstrations of the direct link between rainfall and survival in wild birds, and clearly indicates that top arctic predators can be significantly impacted by changes in precipitation regime.

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bartual, Rafael; Andrés-Doménech, Ignacio

2017-05-01

The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

Merging of rain gauge and radar data for urban hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berndt, Christian; Haberlandt, Uwe

2015-04-01

Urban hydrological processes are generally characterised by short response times and therefore rainfall data with a high resolution in space and time are required for their modelling. In many smaller towns, no recordings of rainfall data exist within the urban catchment. Precipitation radar helps to provide extensive rainfall data with a temporal resolution of five minutes, but the rainfall amounts can be highly biased and hence the data should not be used directly as a model input. However, scientists proposed several methods for adjusting radar data to station measurements. This work tries to evaluate rainfall inputs for a hydrological model regarding the following two different applications: Dimensioning of urban drainage systems and analysis of single event flow. The input data used for this analysis can be divided into two groups: Methods, which rely on station data only (Nearest Neighbour Interpolation, Ordinary Kriging), and methods, which incorporate station as well as radar information (Conditional Merging, Bias correction of radar data based on quantile mapping with rain gauge recordings). Additionally, rainfall intensities that were directly obtained from radar reflectivities are used. A model of the urban catchment of the city of Brunswick (Lower Saxony, Germany) is utilised for the evaluation. First results show that radar data cannot help with the dimensioning task of sewer systems since rainfall amounts of convective events are often overestimated. Gauges in catchment proximity can provide more reliable rainfall extremes. Whether radar data can be helpful to simulate single event flow depends strongly on the data quality and thus on the selected event. Ordinary Kriging is often not suitable for the interpolation of rainfall data in urban hydrology. This technique induces a strong smoothing of rainfall fields and therefore a severe underestimation of rainfall intensities for convective events.

Multiproxy Reduced-Dimension Reconstruction of Holocene Tropical Pacific SST Fields and Indian Monsoon Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Molnar, P. H.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Kushnir, Y.

2016-12-01

We develop a multiproxy reduced-dimension methodology that blends magnesium calcium (Mg/Ca) and alkenone (UK'37) paleo sea surface temperature (SST) records from the eastern and western equatorial Pacific to recreate snapshots of full field SSTs and zonal wind anomalies from 10 to 2 ka BP in 2000-year increments. In the reconstruction, the zonal SST difference (average west Pacific SST minus average east Pacific SST) is largest at 10 ka (0.26°C), with coldest SST anomalies of -0.9°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific and concurrent easterly maximum zonal wind anomalies of 7 m s-1 throughout the central Pacific. From 10 to 2 ka, the entire equatorial Pacific warms, but at a faster rate in the east than in the west. These patterns are broadly consistent with previous inferences of reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability associated with a cooler and/or "La Niña-like" state during the early to middle Holocene. At present there is a strong negative correlation between tropical pacific SSTs and Indian summer monsoon strength. Assuming ENSO-monsoon teleconnections were the same during early Holocene, we would expect a cooler tropical Pacific to enhance the summer Indian monsoon. To test this idea, we used the same tropical Pacific SST proxy records and a similar reduced-dimension technique to reconstruct fields of Arabian Sea wind-stress curl and Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Reconstructions for 10 ka reveal wind-stress curl anomalies of 30% greater than present day off the coastlines of Oman and Yemen, which suggest greater coastal upwelling and an enhanced monsoon jet during this time. Spatial rainfall reconstructions reveal the greatest difference in precipitation at 10 ka over the core monsoon region ( 20-60% greater than present day). Specifically, reconstructions from 10 ka reveal 40-60% greater rainfall over North West India, a region home to abundant paleo-lake records spanning the Holocene but is at present remarkably dry ( 200-450 mm of annual rainfall). These findings advance the hypothesis that teleconnections from the tropical Pacific contributed to, if not accounted for, greater early to middle Holocene wetness over India as recorded by various (e.g., cave, lacustrine, river discharge) paleoclimate proxies throughout the monsoon region.

Effects of rainfall on oil droplet size and the dispersion of spilled oil with application to Douglas Channel, British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Wu, Yongsheng; Hannah, Charles G; Thupaki, Pramod; Mo, Ruping; Law, Brent

2017-01-15

Raindrops falling on the sea surface produce turbulence. The present study examined the influence of rain-induced turbulence on oil droplet size and dispersion of oil spills in Douglas Channel in British Columbia, Canada using hourly atmospheric data in 2011-2013. We examined three types of oils: a light oil (Cold Lake Diluent - CLD), and two heavy oils (Cold Lake Blend - CLB and Access Western Blend - AWB). We found that the turbulent energy dissipation rate produced by rainfalls is comparable to what is produced by wind-induced wave breaking in our study area. With the use of chemical dispersants, our results indicate that a heavy rainfall (rain rate>20mmh -1 ) can produce the maximum droplet size of 300μm for light oil and 1000μm for heavy oils, and it can disperse the light oil with fraction of 22-45% and the heavy oils of 8-13%, respectively. Heavy rainfalls could be a factor for the fate of oil spills in Douglas Channel, especially for a spill of light oil and the use of chemical dispersants. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Hugo in eastern Puerto Rico, September 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Matthew C.; Torres-Sanchez, Angel J.

1992-01-01

On the morning of September 18, 1989, a category-four hurricane struck eastern Puerto Rico with a sustained wind speed in excess of 46 m/s. The 24-h rainfall accumulation from the hurricane ranged from 100 to 339 mm. Average rainfall intensities ranging from 34 to 39 mm/h were calculated for 4 and 6 h periods, respectively, at a rain gage equipped with satellite telemetry, and at an observer station. The hurricane rainfall triggered more than 400 landslides in the steeply sloping, highly dissected mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Of these landslides, 285 were mapped from aerial photography which covered 6474 ha. Many of the mapped landslides were on northeast- and northwest-facing slopes at the eastern terminus of the mountains, nearest the hurricane path. The surface area of individual landslides ranged from 18 m2 to 4500 m2, with a median size of 148 m2. The 285 landslides disturbed 0.11% of the land surface in the area covered by aerial photographs. An approximate denudation rate of 164 mm/1000 y was calculated from the volume of material eroded by landsliding and the 10-y rainfall recurrence interval.

An object-based approach for areal rainfall estimation and validation of atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troemel, Silke; Simmer, Clemens

2010-05-01

An object-based approach for areal rainfall estimation is applied to pseudo-radar data simulated of a weatherforecast model as well as to real radar volume data. The method aims at an as fully as possible exploitation of three-dimensional radar signals produced by precipitation generating systems during their lifetime to enhance areal rainfall estimation. Therefore tracking of radar-detected precipitation-centroids is performed and rain events are investigated using so-called Integral Radar Volume Descriptors (IRVD) containing relevant information of the underlying precipitation process. Some investigated descriptors are statistical quantities from the radar reflectivities within the boundary of a tracked rain cell like the area mean reflectivity or the compactness of a cell; others evaluate the mean vertical structure during the tracking period at the near surface reflectivity-weighted center of the cell like the mean effective efficiency or the mean echo top height. The stage of evolution of a system is given by the trend in the brightband fraction or related quantities. Furthermore, two descriptors not directly derived from radar data are considered: the mean wind shear and an orographic rainfall amplifier. While in case of pseudo-radar data a model based on a small set of IRVDs alone provides rainfall estimates of high accuracy, the application of such a model to the real world remains within the accuracies achievable with a constant Z-R-relationship. However, a combined model based on single IRVDs and the Marshall-Palmer Z-R-estimator already provides considerable enhancements even though the resolution of the data base used has room for improvement. The mean echo top height, the mean effective efficiency, the empirical standard deviation and the Marshall-Palmer estimator are detected for the final rainfall estimator. High correlations between storm height and rain rates, a shift of the probability distribution to higher values with increasing effective efficiency, and the possibility to classify continental and maritime systems using the effective efficiency confirm the informative value of the qualified descriptors. The IRVDs especially correct for the underestimation in case of intense rain events, and the information content of descriptors is most likely higher than demonstrated so far. We used quite sparse information about meteorological variables needed for the calculation of some IRVDs from single radiosoundings, and several descriptors suffered from the range-dependent vertical resolution of the reflectivity profile. Inclusion of neighbouring radars and assimilation runs of weather forecasting models will further enhance the accuracy of rainfall estimates. Finally, the clear difference between the IRVD selection from the pseudo-radar data and from the real world data hint to a new object-based avenue for the validation of higher resolution atmospheric models and for evaluating their potential to digest radar observations in data assimilation schemes.

A multiple-fan active control wind tunnel for outdoor wind speed and direction simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jia-Ying; Meng, Qing-Hao; Luo, Bing; Zeng, Ming

2018-03-01

This article presents a new type of active controlled multiple-fan wind tunnel. The wind tunnel consists of swivel plates and arrays of direct current fans, and the rotation speed of each fan and the shaft angle of each swivel plate can be controlled independently for simulating different kinds of outdoor wind fields. To measure the similarity between the simulated wind field and the outdoor wind field, wind speed and direction time series of two kinds of wind fields are recorded by nine two-dimensional ultrasonic anemometers, and then statistical properties of the wind signals in different time scales are analyzed based on the empirical mode decomposition. In addition, the complexity of wind speed and direction time series is also investigated using multiscale entropy and multivariate multiscale entropy. Results suggest that the simulated wind field in the multiple-fan wind tunnel has a high degree of similarity with the outdoor wind field.

Convective Mode and Mesoscale Heavy Rainfall Forecast Challenges during a High-Impact Weather Period along the Gulf Coast and Florida from 17-20 May 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Wallace, B. C.

2017-12-01

Two high-impact convective storm forecast challenges occurred between 17-20 May 2016 during NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiment (SFE) at the Storm Prediction Center. The first forecast challenge was 286 mm of unexpected record-breaking rain that fell on Vero Beach (VRB), Florida, between 1500 UTC 17 May and 0600 UTC 18 May, more than doubling the previous May daily rainfall record. The record rains in VRB occurred subsequent to the formation of a massive MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico between 0900-1000 UTC 17 May. This MCS, linked to the earlier convection associated with an anomalously strong subtropical jet (STJ) over the Gulf of Mexico, moved east-northeastward toward Florida. The second forecast challenge was a large MCS that formed over the Mexican mountains near the Texas-Mexican border, moved eastward and grew upscale prior to 1200 UTC 19 May. This MCS further strengthened offshore after 1800 UTC 19 May beneath the STJ. SPC SFE participants expected this MCS to move east-northeastward and bring heavy rain due to training echoes along the Gulf coast as far eastward as the Florida panhandle. Instead, this MCS transitioned into a bowing MCS that resembled a low-end derecho and produced a 4-6 hPa cold pool with widespread surface wind gusts between 35-50 kt. Both MCS events occurred in a large-scale baroclinic environment along the northern Gulf coast. Both MCS events responded to antecedent convection within this favorable large-scale environment. Rainfall amounts with the first heavy rain-producing MCS were severely underestimated by models and forecasters alike. The second MCS produced the greatest forecaster angst because rainfall totals were forecast too high (MCS propagated too fast) and severe wind reports were much more widespread than anticipated (because of cold pool formation). This presentation will attempt to untangle what happened and why it happened.

Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.

2017-09-01

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

Modeling analysis of the benefits of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) for sustainable agriculture in arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S.; Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

2012-12-01

In view of the pressing needs to sustainably manage water and soil resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, here we propose a new carbon assimilation model that couples a simple yet mechanistic description of Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) photosynthesis to the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. The model captures the full coupling of the CAM photosynthetic pathway with fluctuations in environmental conditions (cycles of light availability and air humidity, changes in soil moisture as driven by plant transpiration and rainfall occurrence). As such, the model is capable of reproducing the different phases of CAM, including daytime stomatal closure and photosynthesis from malic acid, afternoon stomatal opening for direct carbon assimilation, and nighttime stomatal opening for CO2 uptake and malic acid synthesis. Thanks to its versatility, our model allows us to relate CAM productivity, for both obligate and facultative CAM plants, to various soil moisture conditions including hydroclimatic scenarios of rainfall frequency and intensity as well as different night-time conditions of temperature, wind speed, and humidity. Our analyses show the potential productive benefits of CAM cultivation in dryland environments as feedstock and possible biofuel source, in terms of sustainable water use and economic benefits. In particular, the model is used to explore conditions where CAM plant resiliency to water stress makes these plants a more sustainable alternative to C3 and C4 species for potential deficit irrigation.

Leaching of biocides from building facades: Upscaling of a local two-region leaching model to the city scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutu, S.; Rota, C.; Rossi, L.; Barry, D. A.

2011-12-01

Facades are protected by paints that contain biocides as protection against degradation. These biocides are leached by rainfall (albeit at low concentrations). At the city scale, however, the surface area of building facades is significant, and leached biocides are a potential environmental risk to receiving waters. A city-scale biocide-leaching model was developed based on two main steps. In the first step, laboratory experiments on a single facade were used to calibrate and validate a 1D, two-region phenomenological model of biocide leaching. The same data set was analyzed independently by another research group who found empirically that biocide leachate breakthrough curves were well represented by a sum of two exponentials. Interestingly, the two-region model was found analytically to reproduce this functional form as a special case. The second step in the method is site-specific, and involves upscaling the validated single facade model to a particular city. In this step, (i) GIS-based estimates of facade heights and areas are deduced using the city's cadastral data, (ii) facade flow is estimated using local meteorological data (rainfall, wind direction) and (iii) paint application rates are modeled as a stochastic process based on manufacturers' recommendations. The methodology was applied to Lausanne, Switzerland, a city of about 200,000 inhabitants. Approximately 30% of the annually applied mass of biocides was estimated to be released to the environment.

2007 Weather and Aeolian Sand-Transport Data from the Colorado River Corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Andrews, Timothy; Fairley, Helen C.; Brown, Christopher R.

2009-01-01

Weather data constitute an integral part of ecosystem monitoring in the Colorado River corridor and are particularly valuable for understanding processes of landscape change that contribute to the stability of archeological sites. Data collected in 2007 are reported from nine weather stations in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon, Ariz. The stations were deployed in February and March 2007 to measure wind speed and direction, rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure. Sand traps near each weather station collect windblown sand, from which daily aeolian sand-transport rates are calculated. The data reported here were collected as part of an ongoing study to test and evaluate methods for quantifying processes that affect the physical integrity of archeological sites along the river corridor; as such, these data can be used to identify rainfall events capable of causing gully incision and to predict likely transport pathways for aeolian sand, two landscape processes integral to the preservation of archeological sites. Weather data also have widespread applications to other studies of physical, cultural, and biological resources in Grand Canyon. Aeolian sand-transport data reported here, collected in the year before the March 2008 High-Flow Experiment (HFE) at Glen Canyon Dam, represent baseline data against which the effects of the 2008 HFE on windblown sand will be compared in future reports.

Diagnosing the Atmospheric/Oceanic Phenomena Associated with the Onset, Demise and Mid-Summer Drought of the Rainy Season in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groenen, D.; Bourassa, M. A.

2017-12-01

The rainfall in Mesoamerica (Mexico and Central America) has influences from two bodies of water, interesting topography, and complex wind patterns, which complicates weather forecasting. Knowing the approximate onset and demise of the rainy season is critical for the optimal growth and development of key crops in this region such as coffee, bananas, rice, and maize. This study compares three methods to calculate the onset/demise dates of the individual years' rainy season, using area-averaged rainfall data (7-28 °N/77-109 °W) from two datasets. After these onset/demise dates are obtained using rainfall data, the atmospheric and oceanic phenomena associated with the timing is analyzed using MERRA-2 reanalysis data. The objective is to link the large-scale phenomena to the individual years' onset/demise dates, as well as link the weather phenomena to the interannual variability of the onset/demise dates. In addition, the broad scale rainy season will be connected with regional onset/demise dates on the scale of 400km. Linking the broad scale rainfall regimes to the regional regimes will allow a more cohesive view of the dynamics related to rainfall variability in the Mesoamerican region. A smoothing method will be used to analyze the timing and intensity of the mid-summer drought (MSD), a minimum in rainfall typically occurring during July and August. The goal of this research is to link the physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause the Mesoamerican rainy season and mid-summer drought (MSD) in order to better understand the predictability of Mesoamerican rainfall and ensure the health and safety of key crops.

Fitting a circular distribution based on nonnegative trigonometric sums for wind direction in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masseran, Nurulkamal; Razali, Ahmad Mahir; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman; Zaharim, Azami; Sopian, Kamaruzzaman

2015-02-01

Wind direction has a substantial effect on the environment and human lives. As examples, the wind direction influences the dispersion of particulate matter in the air and affects the construction of engineering structures, such as towers, bridges, and tall buildings. Therefore, a statistical analysis of the wind direction provides important information about the wind regime at a particular location. In addition, knowledge of the wind direction and wind speed can be used to derive information about the energy potential. This study investigated the characteristics of the wind regime of Mersing, Malaysia. A circular distribution based on Nonnegative Trigonometric Sums (NNTS) was fitted to a histogram of the average hourly wind direction data. The Newton-like manifold algorithm was used to estimate the parameter of each component of the NNTS model. Next, the suitability of each NNTS model was judged based on a graphical representation and Akaike's Information Criteria. The study found that the NNTS model with six or more components was able to fit the wind directional data for the Mersing station.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aziz, Mohd Khairul Bazli Mohd, E-mail: mkbazli@yahoo.com; Yusof, Fadhilah, E-mail: fadhilahy@utm.my; Daud, Zalina Mohd, E-mail: zalina@ic.utm.my

Recently, many rainfall network design techniques have been developed, discussed and compared by many researchers. Present day hydrological studies require higher levels of accuracy from collected data. In numerous basins, the rain gauge stations are located without clear scientific understanding. In this study, an attempt is made to redesign rain gauge network for Johor, Malaysia in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The existing network of 84 rain gauges in Johor is optimized and redesigned into a new locations by using rainfall, humidity, solar radiation, temperature and wind speed data collected during themore » monsoon season (November - February) of 1975 until 2008. This study used the combination of geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) and simulated annealing as the algorithm of optimization during the redesigned proses. The result shows that the new rain gauge location provides minimum value of estimated variance. This shows that the combination of geostatistics method (variance-reduction method) and simulated annealing is successful in the development of the new optimum rain gauge system.« less

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.

2000-01-01

Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major experiments chosen for presentations that are introduced in section two. Several significant feature analyses regarding the rainfall properties, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), cloud-scale eddies, the stability issue, the convective system propagation, relative humidity, and the effect on the quasi-equilibrium state by the imposed constant. radiation or constant surface fluxes, and etc. will be presented in the meeting. However, only three of the subjects are discussed in section three. A brief summary is concluded in the end section.

Potential Use of BEST® Sediment Trap in Splash - Saltation Transport Process by Simultaneous Wind and Rain Tests.

PubMed

Basaran, Mustafa; Uzun, Oguzhan; Cornelis, Wim; Gabriels, Donald; Erpul, Gunay

2016-01-01

The research on wind-driven rain (WDR) transport process of the splash-saltation has increased over the last twenty years as wind tunnel experimental studies provide new insights into the mechanisms of simultaneous wind and rain (WDR) transport. The present study was conducted to investigate the efficiency of the BEST® sediment traps in catching the sand particles transported through the splash-saltation process under WDR conditions. Experiments were conducted in a wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility with water sprayed through sprinkler nozzles and free-flowing wind at different velocities to simulate the WDR conditions. Not only for vertical sediment distribution, but a series of experimental tests for horizontal distribution of sediments was also performed using BEST® collectors to obtain the actual total sediment mass flow by the splash-saltation in the center of the wind tunnel test section. Total mass transport (kg m-2) were estimated by analytically integrating the exponential functional relationship using the measured sediment amounts at the set trap heights for every run. Results revealed the integrated efficiency of the BEST® traps at 6, 9, 12 and 15 m s-1 wind velocities under 55.8, 50.5, 55.0 and 50.5 mm h-1 rain intensities were, respectively, 83, 106, 105, and 102%. Results as well showed that the efficiencies of BEST® did not change much as compared with those under rainless wind condition.

Urticaceae pollen concentration in the atmosphere of North Western Spain.

PubMed

Vega-Maray, Ana Maria; Valencia-Barrera, Rosa; Fernandez-Gonzalez, Delia; Fraile, Roberto

2003-01-01

Plants of the Urticaceae family can develop into a pest on soils enriched with nitrogen. Urticaceae pollen is a biohazard because it elicits severe pollinosis. Pollen grains were sampled by using a Lanzoni seven-day-recording trap from February 1995-December 2000 in the atmosphere of the city of Ponferrada (Leon, North Western Spain). The Spearman test was used to analyse the statistical correlation between Urticaceae pollen and certain meteorological factors in different main pollination periods. Maximum values are reached in June and July, minimum levels are recorded in January and December. The parameters bearing the greatest positive influence on the occurrence of Urticaceae pollen grains are: temperature (maximum, minimum and mean), humidity (absolute, wet-bulb temperature, dew point and mixing ratio) and south western wind direction; negative parameters are: relative humidity, rainfall and period without wind. The highest correlation coefficients were obtained with temperature and wet-bulb. Absolute humidity and wet-bulb temperature yielded better correlation than relative humidity; hence, these two parameters must be included in this type of study. The use of one main pollination period or another in statistical analysis has an influence on the coefficient value. The behaviour of the pollen grains in the atmosphere during the year also influences the results.

Thermodynamic and dynamic structure of atmosphere over the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia during the passage of a cold surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samah, Azizan Abu; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza; Jayakrishnan, P. R.; Hai, Ooi See

2016-08-01

An intense field observation was carried out for a better understanding of cold surge features over Peninsular Malaysia during the winter monsoon season. The study utilizes vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and wind at high vertical and temporal resolution over Kota Bharu, situated in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. LCL were elevated during the passage of the cold surge as the relative humidity values decreased during the passage of cold surge. Level of Free Convection were below 800 hPa and equilibrium levels were close to the LFC in most of the cases. Convective available potential energy and convection inhibition energy values were small during most of the observations. Absence of local heating and instability mechanism are responsible for the peculiar thermodynamic structure during the passage of the cold surge. The wind in the lower atmosphere became northeasterly and was strong during the entire cold surge period. A slight increase in temperature near the surface and a drop in temperature just above the surface were marked by the passage of the cold surge. A remarkable increase in specific humidity was observed between 970 and 900 hPa during the cold surge period. Further, synoptic scale features were analyzed to identify the mechanism responsible for heavy rainfall. Low level convergence, upper level divergence and cyclonic vorticity prevailed over the region during the heavy rainfall event. Dynamic structure of the atmosphere as part of the organized convection associated with the winter monsoon was responsible for the vertical lifting and subsequent rainfall.

Seasonal Variation of Total Mercury Burden in the American Alligator (Alligator Mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nilsen, Frances M.; Dorsey, Jonathan E.; Long, Stephen E.; Schock, Tracey B.; Bowden, John A.; Lowers, Russell H.; Guillette, Louis J., Jr.

2016-01-01

Seasonal variation of mercury (Hg) is not well studied in free-ranging wildlife. Atmospheric deposition patterns of Hg have been studied in detail and have been modeled for both global and specific locations with great accuracy and correlates to environment impact. However, monitoring these trends in wildlife is complicated due to local environmental parameters (e.g., rainfall, humidity, pH, bacterial composition) that can affect the transformation of atmospheric Hg to the biologically available forms. Here, we utilized an abundant and healthy population of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), FL, and assessed Hg burden in whole blood samples over a span of 7 years (2007 2014; n 174) in an effort to assess seasonal variation of total [Hg]. While the majority of this population is assumed healthy, 18 individuals with low body mass indices (BMI, defined in this study) were captured throughout the 7 year sampling period. These individual alligators exhibited [Hg] that were not consistent with the observed overall seasonal [Hg] variation, and were statistically different from the healthy population of alligators. The alligators with low BMI had elevated concentrations of Hg compared to their age/sex/season matched counterparts with normal BMI. Statistically significant differences were found between the winter and spring seasons for animals with normal BMI. The data in this report supports the conclusion that organismal total [Hg] do fluctuate directly with seasonal deposition rates as well as other seasonal environmental parameters, such as average rainfall and prevailing wind direction. This study highlights the unique environment of MINWR to permit annual assessment of apex predators, such as the American alligator, to determine detailed environmental impact of contaminants of concern.

Soricid response to canopy gaps created by wind disturbance in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Cathryn H. Greenberg; Stanlee Miller

2004-01-01

We used drift fences with pitfall traps to compare soricid abundance, richness, and demographic parameters among intact multiple-tree windthrow gaps, salvaged gaps, and mature forest in a xeric southern Appalachian forest type during 1997-1999. We also tested whether capture rates were correlated with rainfall, and whether similar-sized species did not co-occur as...

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural communities in the United States

Treesearch

Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; D Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate such as temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer (USEPA 2009). In the last decade, there has been a clear consensus among scientists that the world is experiencing a rapid global climate change, much of it attributable to anthropogenic activities. The extent of...

77 FR 59223 - Extension of Post-Sale Evaluation Period for Consolidated Central Gulf of Mexico Planning Area...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... Regional Office building in New Orleans and other effects of the recent hurricane impacting the region... Regional Office building in New Orleans was closed at 3:00 p.m. local time. Many BOEM employees and their... northern Gulf Coast, just south of the New Orleans metropolitan area. Heavy rainfall and high winds caused...

Historical bac-barrier shoreline changes, Padre Island National Seashore, Texas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prouty, J.S.

1989-09-01

Historical progradation rates of the Laguna Madre shoreline at Padre Island National Seashore have varied considerably, largely in response to rainfall fluctuations and perhaps grazing pressure. Analysis of aerial photographs indicates that near the northern margin of the National Seashore the shoreline prograded at an average rate of 26 ft/year between 1941 and 1950. The average rate of progradation increased to 42 ft/year between 1950 and 1964. Average rates then slowed in the late 1960s, and since 1969 the shoreline has prograded at an average rate of only 1 ft/year. Some areas of the shoreline are presently eroding. Early mapsmore » and accounts suggest that a century ago North Padre Island was largely vegetated. Overgrazing and a series of droughts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries denuded the island, and prevailing winds blew sand westward across the island into Laguna Madre. With higher than average rainfall in the past 2 decades and less grazing, the island has significantly revegetated. Winds now carry less sand to Laguna Madre; reduced sand supply is a major cause of present-day shoreline retreat.« less

Predicting Average Vehicle Speed in Two Lane Highways Considering Weather Condition and Traffic Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirbaha, Babak; Saffarzadeh, Mahmoud; AmirHossein Beheshty, Seyed; Aniran, MirMoosa; Yazdani, Mirbahador; Shirini, Bahram

2017-10-01

Analysis of vehicle speed with different weather condition and traffic characteristics is very effective in traffic planning. Since the weather condition and traffic characteristics vary every day, the prediction of average speed can be useful in traffic management plans. In this study, traffic and weather data for a two-lane highway located in Northwest of Iran were selected for analysis. After merging traffic and weather data, the linear regression model was calibrated for speed prediction using STATA12.1 Statistical and Data Analysis software. Variables like vehicle flow, percentage of heavy vehicles, vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicles in opposing lane, rainfall (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s were found to be significant variables in the model. Results showed that variables of vehicle flow and heavy vehicle percent acquired the positive coefficient that shows, by increasing these variables the average vehicle speed in every weather condition will also increase. Vehicle flow in opposing lane, percentage of heavy vehicle in opposing lane, rainfall amount (mm), snowfall and maximum daily wind speed more than 13m/s acquired the negative coefficient that shows by increasing these variables, the average vehicle speed will decrease.

Quantitative mapping of rainfall rates over the oceans utilizing Nimbus-5 ESMR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, M. S. V.; Abbott, W. V.

1976-01-01

The electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) data from the Nimbus 5 satellite was used to deduce estimates of precipitation amount over the oceans. An atlas of the global oceanic rainfall was prepared and the global rainfall maps analyzed and related to available ground truth information as well as to large scale processes in the atmosphere. It was concluded that the ESMR system provides the most reliable and direct approach yet known for the estimation of rainfall over sparsely documented, wide oceanic regions.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

Transient behavior of vertical scaling of mesoscale winds in the light of atmospheric turbulence transfer in and between synoptic and mesoscales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, A. P.; Eghdami, M.

2017-12-01

High-resolution ( 1 km) numerical weather prediction models are capable of producing atmospheric spectra over synoptic and mesoscale ranges. Nogueira and Barros (2015) showed using high-resolution simulations in the Andes that the horizontal scale invariant behavior of atmospheric wind and water fields in the model is a process-dependent transient property that varies with the underlying dynamics. They found a sharp transition in the scaling parameters between non-convective and convective conditions. Spectral slopes around 2-2.3 arise under non-convective or very weak convective conditions, whereas in convective situations the transient scaling exponents remain under -5/3. Based on these results, Nogueira and Barros (2015) proposed a new sub-grid scale parameterization of clouds obtained from coarse resolution states alone. High Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of two-dimensional turbulence transfer shows that atmospheric flows involve concurrent direct (downscale) enstrophy transfer in the synoptic scales and inverse (upscale) kinetic energy transfer from the meso- to the synoptic-scales. In this study we use an analogy to investigate the transient behavior of kinetic energy spectra of winds over the Andes and Southern Appalachian Mountains representative of high and middle mountains, respectively. In the unstable conditions and particularly in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) the spectral slopes approach -5/3 associated with the upscale KE turbulence transfer. However, in the stable conditions and above the planetary boundary layer, the spectra slopes approach steeper slopes about -3 associated with the downscale KE transfer. The underlying topography, surface roughness, diurnal heating and cooling and moist processes add to the complexity of the problem by introducing anisotropy and sources and sinks of energy. A comprehensive analysis and scaling of flow behavior conditional on stability regime for both KE and moist processes (total water, cloud water, rainfall) is necessary to elucidate scale-interactions among different processes.

Intrinsic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes of the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Re-assessment of Monsoon-ENSO Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Wu, H. T.

2000-01-01

Using global rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) data for the past two decades (1979-1998), we have investigated the intrinsic modes of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and ENSO co-variability. Three recurring ASM rainfall-SST coupled modes were identified. The first is a basin scale mode that features SST and rainfall variability over the entire tropics (including the ASM region), identifiable with those occurring during El Nino or La Nina. This mode is further characterized by a pronounced biennial variation in ASM rainfall and SST associated with fluctuations of the anomalous Walker circulation that occur during El Nino/La Nina transitions. The second mode comprises mixed regional and basin-scale rainfall and SST signals, with pronounced intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. This mode features a SST pattern associated with a developing La Nina, with a pronounced low level anticyclone in the subtropics of the western Pacific off the coast of East Asia. The third mode depicts an east-west rainfall and SST dipole across the southern equatorial Indian Ocean, most likely stemming from coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the ASM region. This mode also possesses a decadal time scale and a linear trend, which are not associated with El Nino/La Nina variability. Possible causes of year-to-year rainfall variability over the ASM and sub-regions have been evaluated from a reconstruction of the observed rainfall from singular eigenvectors of the coupled modes. It is found that while basin-scale SST can account for portions of ASM rainfall variability during ENSO events (up to 60% in 1998), regional processes can accounts up to 20-25% of the rainfall variability in typical non-ENSO years. Stronger monsoon-ENSO relationship tends to occur in the boreal summer immediately preceding a pronounced La Nina, i.e., 1998, 1988 and 1983. Based on these results, we discuss the possible impacts of the ASM on ENSO variability via the west Pacific anticyclone and articulate a hypothesis that anomalous wind forcings derived from the anticyclone may be instrumental in inducing a strong biennial modulation to natural ENSO cycles.

Potential of collocated radiometer and wind profiler observations for monsoon studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, B.; Prabha, Thara V.; Jaya Rao, Y.; Kiran, T.; Dinesh, G.; Chakravarty, Kaustav; Sonbawne, S. M.; Rajeevan, M.

2017-09-01

Collocated observations from microwave radiometer and wind profiler are used in a pilot study during the monsoon period to derive information on the thermodynamics and winds and association with rainfall characteristics. These instruments were operated throughout the monsoon season of 2015. Continuous vertical profiles of winds, temperature and humidity show significant promise for understanding the low-level jet, its periodicity and its association with moisture transport, clouds and precipitation embedded within the monsoon large-scale convection. Observations showed mutually beneficial in explaining variability that are part of the low frequency oscillations and the diurnal variability during monsoon. These observations highlight the importance of locally driven convective systems, in the presence of weak moisture transport over the area. The episodic moisture convergence showed a periodicity of 9 days which matches with the subsequent convection and precipitation and thermodynamic regimes. Inferences from the diurnal cycle of moisture transport and the convective activity, relationship with the low-level jet characteristics and thermodynamics are also illustrated.

Spatiotemporal variability of rainfall extremes in monsoonal climates - examples from the South American Monsoon and the Indian Monsoon Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookhagen, B.; Boers, N.; Marwan, N.; Malik, N.; Kurths, J.

2013-12-01

Monsoonal rainfall is the crucial component for more than half of the world's population. Runoff associated with monsoon systems provide water resources for agriculture, hydropower, drinking-water generation, recreation, and social well-being and are thus a fundamental part of human society. However, monsoon systems are highly stochastic and show large variability on various timescales. Here, we use various rainfall datasets to characterize spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using traditional as well as new approaches emphasizing nonlinear spatial correlations from a complex networks perspective. Our analyses focus on the South American (SAMS) and Indian (ISM) Monsoon Systems on the basis of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) using precipitation radar and passive-microwave products with horizontal spatial resolutions of ~5x5 km^2 (products 2A25, 2B31) and 25x25 km^2 (3B42) and interpolated rainfall-gauge data for the ISM (APHRODITE, 25x25 km^2). The eastern slopes of the Andes of South America and the southern front of the Himalaya are characterized by significant orographic barriers that intersect with the moisture-bearing, monsoonal wind systems. We demonstrate that topography exerts a first-order control on peak rainfall amounts on annual timescales in both mountain belts. Flooding in the downstream regions is dominantly caused by heavy rainfall storms that propagate deep into the mountain range and reach regions that are arid and without vegetation cover promoting rapid runoff. These storms exert a significantly different spatial distribution than average-rainfall conditions and assessing their recurrence intervals and prediction is key in understanding flooding for these regions. An analysis of extreme-value distributions of our high-spatial resolution data reveal that semi-arid areas are characterized by low-frequency/high-magnitude events (i.e., are characterized by a ';heavy tail' distribution), whereas regions with high mean annual rainfall have a less skewed distribution. In a second step, an analysis of the spatial characteristics of extreme rainfall synchronicity by means of complex networks reveals patterns of the propagation of extreme rainfall events. These patterns differ substantially from those obtained from the mean annual rainfall distribution. In addition, we have developed a scheme to predict rainfall extreme events in the eastern Central Andes based on event synchronization and spatial patterns of complex networks. The presented methods and result will allow to critically evaluate data and models in space and time.

Chase the direct impact of rainfall into groundwater in Mt. Fuji from multiple analyses including microbial DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Kenji; Sugiyama, Ayumi; Nagaosa, Kazuyo; Tsujimura, Maki

2016-04-01

A huge amount of groundwater is stored in subsurface environment of Mt. Fuji, the largest volcanic mountain in Japan. Based on the concept of piston flow transport of groundwater an apparent residence time was estimated to ca. 30 years by 36Cl/Cl ratio (Tosaki et al., 2011). However, this number represents an averaged value of the residence time of groundwater which had been mixed before it flushes out. We chased signatures of direct impact of rainfall into groundwater to elucidate the routes of groundwater, employing three different tracers; stable isotopic analysis (delta 18O), chemical analysis (concentration of silica) and microbial DNA analysis. Though chemical analysis of groundwater shows an averaged value of the examined water which was blended by various water with different sources and routes in subsurface environment, microbial DNA analysis may suggest the place where they originated, which may give information of the source and transport routes of the water examined. Throughout the in situ observation of four rainfall events showed that stable oxygen isotopic ratio of spring water and shallow groundwater obtained from 726m a.s.l. where the average recharge height of rainfall was between 1500 and 1800 m became higher than the values before a torrential rainfall, and the concentration of silica decreased after this event when rainfall exceeded 300 mm in precipitation of an event. In addition, the density of Prokaryotes in spring water apparently increased. Those changes did not appear when rainfall did not exceed 100 mm per event. Thus, findings shown above indicated a direct impact of rainfall into shallow groundwater, which appeared within a few weeks of torrential rainfall in the studied geological setting. In addition, increase in the density of Archaea observed at deep groundwater after the torrential rainfall suggested an enlargement of the strength of piston flow transport through the penetration of rainfall into deep groundwater. This finding was supported by difference in constituents of Archaea by predominance of Halobacteriales and Methanobacteriales, which were thought to be relatively tightly embedded in geological layer and were extracted from the environment to the examined groundwater. Microbial DNA thus could give information about the route of groundwater, which was never elucidated by analysis of chemical materials dissolved in groundwater.

Observations of the directional distribution of the wind energy input function over swell waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, Behnam; Babanin, Alex V.; Baldock, Tom E.

2016-02-01

Field measurements of wind stress over shallow water swell traveling in different directions relative to the wind are presented. The directional distribution of the measured stresses is used to confirm the previously proposed but unverified directional distribution of the wind energy input function. The observed wind energy input function is found to follow a much narrower distribution (β∝cos⁡3.6θ) than the Plant (1982) cosine distribution. The observation of negative stress angles at large wind-wave angles, however, indicates that the onset of negative wind shearing occurs at about θ≈ 50°, and supports the use of the Snyder et al. (1981) directional distribution. Taking into account the reverse momentum transfer from swell to the wind, Snyder's proposed parameterization is found to perform exceptionally well in explaining the observed narrow directional distribution of the wind energy input function, and predicting the wind drag coefficients. The empirical coefficient (ɛ) in Snyder's parameterization is hypothesised to be a function of the wave shape parameter, with ɛ value increasing as the wave shape changes between sinusoidal, sawtooth, and sharp-crested shoaling waves.

Factors affecting Escherichia coli concentrations at Lake Erie public bathing beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Darner, Robert A.

1998-01-01

The environmental and water-quality factors that affect concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water and sediment were investigated at three public bathing beachesEdgewater Park, Villa Angela, and Sims Parkin the Cleveland, Ohio metropolitan area. This study was done to aid in the determination of safe recreational use and to help water- resource managers assess more quickly and accurately the degradation of recreational water quality. Water and lake-bottom sediments were collected and ancillary environmental data were compiled for 41 days from May through September 1997. Water samples were analyzed for E. coli concentrations, suspended sediment concentrations, and turbidity. Lake- bottom sediment samples from the beach area were analyzed for E. coli concentrations and percent dry weight. Concentrations of E. coli were higher and more variable at Sims Park than at Villa Angela or Edgewater Park; concentrations were lowest at Edgewater Park. Time-series plots showed that short-term storage (less than one week) of E. coli in lake-bottom sediments may have occurred, although no evidence for long-term storage was found during the sampling period. E. coli concentrations in water were found to increase with increasing wave height, but the resuspension of E. coli from lake-bottom sediments by wave action could not be adequately assessed; higherwave heights were often associated with the discharge of sewage containing E. coli during or after a rainfall and wastewater-treatment plant overflow. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop models to predict recreational water quality at the in water. The related variables included turbidity, antecedent rainfall, antecedent weighted rainfall, volumes of wastewater-treatment plant overflows and metered outfalls (composed of storm-water runoff and combined-sewer overflows), a resuspension index, and wave heights. For the beaches in this study, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and the prswimmers were not included in the model because they were shown to be statistically unrelated to E. coli concentrations. From the several models developed, one model was chosen that accounted for 58 percent of the variability in E. coli concentrations. The chosen MLR model contained weighted categorical rainfall, beach-specific turbidity, wave height, and terms to correct for the different magnitudes of E. coli concentrations among the three beaches. For 1997, the MLR model predicted the recreational water quality as well as, and in some cases better than, antecedent E. coli concentrations (the current method). The MLR model improved the sensitivity of the prediction and the percentage of correct predictions over the current method; however, the MLR model predictions still erred to a similar degree as the current method with regard to false negatives. A false negative would allow swimming when, in fact, the bathing water standard was exceeded. More work needs to be done to validate the MLR model with data collected during other recreational seasons, especially during a season with a greater frequency and intensity of summer rains. Studies could focus on adding to the MLR model other environmental and water-quality variables that improve the predictive ability of the model. These variables might include concentrations of E. coli in deeper sediments outside the bathing area, the direction of lake currents, site-specific-rainfall amounts, time-of-day information on overflows and metered outfalls, concentrations of E. coli in treated wastewater-treatment plant effluents, and occurrences of sewage-line breaks. Rapid biological or chemical methods for determination of recreational water quality could also be used as variables in model refinements. Possible methods include the use of experimental rapid assay methods for determination of E. coli concentrations or other fecal indicators and the use of chemical tracers for fecal contamination, such as coprostanol (a degradation

The effect of geographical and climatic properties on grass pollen and Phl p 5 allergen release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alan, Şenol; Şahin, Aydan Acar; Sarışahin, Tuğba; Şahin, Serap; Kaplan, Ayşe; Pınar, Nur Münevver

2018-04-01

The Poaceae family, including grasses, comprises several cosmopolitan and allergenic species. The aim of this study was to determine the correlations between Poaceae pollen and Phl p 5 allergen concentrations in two cities with different geographical and climatic properties in Turkey. Pollen were collected from Burkard traps in Ankara and Zonguldak. Phl p 5 sampling was carried out between March and October in both 2015 and 2016 using a BGI900 Cascade High Volume Air Sampler (900 L/min.). The concentrations of Phl p 5 were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The annual sum of Poaceae pollen (pollen index) during 2015-2016 was 5454 in Ankara and 4142 in Zonguldak. The total Phl p 5 concentration was 1309 pg/m3 in Zonguldak, whereas it was 8181 pg/m3 in Ankara over 2 years. About 90% of the allergen was found in the fraction with particulate matter (PM) > 10 μm in both cities. It was found that the main meteorological parameter which affected pollen and Phl p 5 was temperature in both stations. Rainfall was also found to be important for Zonguldak, due to its climatic and geographic properties. Lastly, we suggest that the primary wind direction, which is from the south of Zonguldak, could have a `drift effect' for allergens because of the airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which the allergen is released into the atmosphere. The wind direction may be an important factor in the distribution of allergen and pollen grains in stations, especially those with a hilly topography.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

[Measurement of Speed and Direction of Ocean Surface Winds Using Quik Scat Scatterometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stiles, Bryan; Pollard, Brian

2000-01-01

The SeaWinds on QuikSCAT scatterometer was developed by NASA JPL to measure the speed and direction of ocean surface winds. Simulations performed to estimate the performance of the instrument prior to its launch have indicated that the mid-swath accuracy is worse than that of the rest of the swath. This behavior is a general characteristic of scanning pencil beam scatterometers. For SeaWinds, the accuracy of the rest of the swath, and the size of the swath are such that the instrument meets its science requirements despite mid-swath shortcomings. However, by understanding the problem at mid-swath, we can improve the performance there as well. We discuss the underlying causes of the problem in detail and propose a new wind retrieval algorithm which improves mid-swath performance. The directional discrimination ability of the instrument varies with cross track distance wind speed, and direction. By estimating the range of likely wind directions for each measurement cell, one can optimally apply information from neighboring cells where necessary in order to reduce random wind direction errors without significantly degrading the resolution of the resultant wind field. In this manner we are able to achieve mid-swath RMS wind direction errors as low as 15 degrees for low winds and 10 degrees for moderate to high winds, while at the same time preserving high resolution structures such as cyclones and fronts.

A model of air-sea gas exchange incorporating the physics of the turbulent boundary layer and the properties of the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soloviev, Alexander; Schluessel, Peter

The model presented contains interfacial, bubble-mediated, ocean mixed layer, and remote sensing components. The interfacial (direct) gas transfer dominates under conditions of low and—for quite soluble gases like CO2—moderate wind speeds. Due to the similarity between the gas and heat transfer, the temperature difference, ΔT, across the thermal molecular boundary layer (cool skin of the ocean) and the interfacial gas transfer coefficient, Kint are presumably interrelated. A coupled parameterization for ΔT and Kint has been derived in the context of a surface renewal model [Soloviev and Schluessel, 1994]. In addition to the Schmidt, Sc, and Prandtl, Pr, numbers, the important parameters are the surface Richardson number, Rƒ0, and the Keulegan number, Ke. The more readily available cool skin data are used to determine the coefficients that enter into both parameterizations. At high wind speeds, the Ke-number dependence is further verified with the formula for transformation of the surface wind stress to form drag and white capping, which follows from the renewal model. A further extension of the renewal model includes effects of solar radiation and rainfall. The bubble-mediated component incorporates the Merlivat et al. [1993] parameterization with the empirical coefficients estimated by Asher and Wanninkhof [1998]. The oceanic mixed layer component accounts for stratification effects on the air-sea gas exchange. Based on the example of GasEx-98, we demonstrate how the results of parameterization and modeling of the air-sea gas exchange can be extended to the global scale, using remote sensing techniques.

2008 Weather and Aeolian Sand-Transport Data from the Colorado River Corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Sondossi, Hoda A.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Andrews, Timothy; Fairley, Helen C.; Brown, Christopher R.; Vanaman, Karen M.

2009-01-01

This report presents measurements of weather parameters and aeolian (windblown) sand transport made in 2008 near selected archaeological sites in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon, Ariz. The quantitative methods and data discussed here form a basis for monitoring ecosystem processes that affect archeological-site stability. Combined with forthcoming work to evaluate landscape evolution at nearby archaeological sites, these data can be used to document the relationship between physical processes, including weather and aeolian sand transport, and their effects on the physical integrity of archaeological sites. Data collected in 2008 reveal event- and seasonal-scale variations in rainfall, wind, temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Broad seasonal changes in aeolian sediment flux are also apparent at most study sites. The continuation of monitoring that began in 2007, and installation of equipment at several new sites in early 2008, allowed evaluation of the effects of the March 2008 high-flow experiment (HFE) on aeolian sand transport. At two of the nine sites studied, spring and summer winds reworked 2008 HFE sandbars to form new aeolian dunes, at which sand moved inland toward larger, well-established dune fields. At the other seven study sites, neither dune formation nor enhanced sand transport after the HFE were observed. At several of those sites, dominant wind directions in spring 2008 were not oriented such that much HFE sand would have moved inland; at other sites, lack of increased inland sand flux is attributable to lack of sandbar enlargement near the study sites or to inhibition of sand movement by vegetation or local topography.

Temporal variability of exchange between groundwater and surface water based on high-frequency direct measurements of seepage at the sediment-water interface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, Donald O.; Sheibley, Rich W.; Cox, Stephen E.; Simonds, Frederic W.; Naftz, David L.

2013-01-01

Seepage at the sediment-water interface in several lakes, a large river, and an estuary exhibits substantial temporal variability when measured with temporal resolution of 1 min or less. Already substantial seepage rates changed by 7% and 16% in response to relatively small rain events at two lakes in the northeastern USA, but did not change in response to two larger rain events at a lake in Minnesota. However, seepage at that same Minnesota lake changed by 10% each day in response to withdrawals from evapotranspiration. Seepage increased by more than an order of magnitude when a seiche occurred in the Great Salt Lake, Utah. Near the head of a fjord in Puget Sound, Washington, seepage in the intertidal zone varied greatly from −115 to +217 cm d−1 in response to advancing and retreating tides when the time-averaged seepage was upward at +43 cm d−1. At all locations, seepage variability increased by one to several orders of magnitude in response to wind and associated waves. Net seepage remained unchanged by wind unless wind also induced a lake seiche. These examples from sites distributed across a broad geographic region indicate that temporal variability in seepage in response to common hydrological events is much larger than previously realized. At most locations, seepage responded within minutes to changes in surface-water stage and within minutes to hours to groundwater recharge associated with rainfall. Likely implications of this dynamism include effects on water residence time, geochemical transformations, and ecological conditions at and near the sediment-water interface.

Tail Shape Design of Boat Wind Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singamsitty, Venkatesh

Wind energy is a standout among the most generally utilized sustainable power source assets. A great deal of research and improvements have been happening in the wind energy field. Wind turbines are mechanical devices that convert kinetic energy into electrical power. Boat wind turbines are for the small-scale generation of electric power. In order to catch wind energy effectively, boat wind turbines need to face wind direction. Tails are used in boat wind turbines to alter the wind turbine direction and receive the variation of the incoming direction of wind. Tails are used to change the performance of boat wind turbines in an effective way. They are required to generate a quick and steady response as per change in wind direction. Tails can have various shapes, and their effects on boat wind turbines are different. However, the effects of tail shapes on the performance of boat wind turbines are not thoroughly studied yet. In this thesis, five tail shapes were studied. Their effects on boat wind turbines were investigated. The power extracted by the turbines from the air and the force acting on the boat wind turbine tail were analyzed. The results of this thesis provide a guideline of tail shape design for boat wind turbines.

Flying with the wind: Scale dependency of speed and direction measurements in modelling wind support in avian flight

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safi, Kamran; Kranstauber, Bart; Weinzierl, Rolf P.; Griffin, Larry; Reese, Eileen C.; Cabot, David; Cruz, Sebastian; Proaño, Carolina; Takekawa, John Y.; Newman, Scott H.; Waldenström, Jonas; Bengtsson, Daniel; Kays, Roland; Wikelski, Martin; Bohrer, Gil

2013-01-01

Background: Understanding how environmental conditions, especially wind, influence birds' flight speeds is a prerequisite for understanding many important aspects of bird flight, including optimal migration strategies, navigation, and compensation for wind drift. Recent developments in tracking technology and the increased availability of data on large-scale weather patterns have made it possible to use path annotation to link the location of animals to environmental conditions such as wind speed and direction. However, there are various measures available for describing not only wind conditions but also the bird's flight direction and ground speed, and it is unclear which is best for determining the amount of wind support (the length of the wind vector in a bird’s flight direction) and the influence of cross-winds (the length of the wind vector perpendicular to a bird’s direction) throughout a bird's journey.Results: We compared relationships between cross-wind, wind support and bird movements, using path annotation derived from two different global weather reanalysis datasets and three different measures of direction and speed calculation for 288 individuals of nine bird species. Wind was a strong predictor of bird ground speed, explaining 10-66% of the variance, depending on species. Models using data from different weather sources gave qualitatively similar results; however, determining flight direction and speed from successive locations, even at short (15 min intervals), was inferior to using instantaneous GPS-based measures of speed and direction. Use of successive location data significantly underestimated the birds' ground and airspeed, and also resulted in mistaken associations between cross-winds, wind support, and their interactive effects, in relation to the birds' onward flight.Conclusions: Wind has strong effects on bird flight, and combining GPS technology with path annotation of weather variables allows us to quantify these effects for understanding flight behaviour. The potentially strong influence of scaling effects must be considered and implemented in developing sampling regimes and data analysis.

Flying with the wind: scale dependency of speed and direction measurements in modelling wind support in avian flight.

PubMed

Safi, Kamran; Kranstauber, Bart; Weinzierl, Rolf; Griffin, Larry; Rees, Eileen C; Cabot, David; Cruz, Sebastian; Proaño, Carolina; Takekawa, John Y; Newman, Scott H; Waldenström, Jonas; Bengtsson, Daniel; Kays, Roland; Wikelski, Martin; Bohrer, Gil

2013-01-01

Understanding how environmental conditions, especially wind, influence birds' flight speeds is a prerequisite for understanding many important aspects of bird flight, including optimal migration strategies, navigation, and compensation for wind drift. Recent developments in tracking technology and the increased availability of data on large-scale weather patterns have made it possible to use path annotation to link the location of animals to environmental conditions such as wind speed and direction. However, there are various measures available for describing not only wind conditions but also the bird's flight direction and ground speed, and it is unclear which is best for determining the amount of wind support (the length of the wind vector in a bird's flight direction) and the influence of cross-winds (the length of the wind vector perpendicular to a bird's direction) throughout a bird's journey. We compared relationships between cross-wind, wind support and bird movements, using path annotation derived from two different global weather reanalysis datasets and three different measures of direction and speed calculation for 288 individuals of nine bird species. Wind was a strong predictor of bird ground speed, explaining 10-66% of the variance, depending on species. Models using data from different weather sources gave qualitatively similar results; however, determining flight direction and speed from successive locations, even at short (15 min intervals), was inferior to using instantaneous GPS-based measures of speed and direction. Use of successive location data significantly underestimated the birds' ground and airspeed, and also resulted in mistaken associations between cross-winds, wind support, and their interactive effects, in relation to the birds' onward flight. Wind has strong effects on bird flight, and combining GPS technology with path annotation of weather variables allows us to quantify these effects for understanding flight behaviour. The potentially strong influence of scaling effects must be considered and implemented in developing sampling regimes and data analysis.

Plants and ventifacts delineate late Holocene wind vectors in the Coachella Valley, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffiths, P.G.; Webb, R.H.; Fisher, M.; Muth, Allan

2009-01-01

Strong westerly winds that emanate from San Gorgonio Pass, the lowest point between Palm Springs and Los Angeles, California, dominate aeolian transport in the Coachella Valley of the western Sonoran Desert. These winds deposit sand in coppice dunes that are critical habitat for several species, including the state and federally listed threatened species Uma inornata, a lizard. Although wind directions are generally defined in this valley, the wind field has complex interactions with local topography and becomes more variable with distance from the pass. Local, dominant wind directions are preserved by growth patterns of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush), a shrub characteristic of the hot North American deserts, and ventifacts. Exceptionally long-lived, Larrea has the potential to preserve wind direction over centuries to millennia, shaped by the abrasive pruning of windward branches and the persistent training of leeward branches. Wind direction preserved in Larrea individuals and clones was mapped at 192 locations. Compared with wind data from three weather stations, Larrea vectors effectively reflect annual prevailing winds. Ventifacts measured at 24 locations record winds 10° more westerly than Larrea and appear to reflect the direction of the most erosive winds. Based on detailed mapping of local wind directions as preserved in Larrea, only the northern half of the Mission-Morongo Creek floodplain is likely to supply sand to protected U. inornata habitat in the Willow Hole ecological reserve.

Disturbance Driven Rainfall in O`ahu, Hawai`i (1990-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, R. J.; Elison Timm, O.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kaiser, L.; Newman, A. J.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Trade wind orographic rainfall is the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai`i and provides a year-round source of moisture to the windward areas across the Island chain. Significant contributions to total and extreme precipitation have also been linked to one of four atmospheric disturbance situations that include: cold fronts, Kona storms, upper-tropospheric disturbances (upper level lows), and tropical systems. The primary objective of this research is to determine how these disturbance types contribute to total wet-season rainfall (RF) on the Island of O`ahu, Hawai`i and to identify any significant changes in the frequency of occurrence and or the intensity of these events. Atmospheric fronts that occurred in the Hawai`i region (17-26°N, 150-165°W) were extracted from a global dataset and combined with a Kona low and upper level low dataset to create a daily categorical weather classification time series (1990-2010). Mean rainfall was extracted from gridded daily O`ahu RF maps. Results show that the difference between a wet and dry year is predominantly explained by the RF contributions from disturbance events (r2 = 0.57, p < 0.01), in particularly, the contributions coming from Kona low and cold fronts that cross the Island. During the wettest season on record, disturbances accounted for 48% of the total RF, while during the driest season they accounted for only 6% of the total RF. The event-based RF analysis also compared the RF intensity in the absence of disturbance events with the average RF intensity on days when atmospheric fronts are present but do not cross the island. The results show that non-crossing fronts reduce the average RF intensity. A possible explanation is that these events are too far away to produce RF, but close enough to disrupt normal trade wind flow, thus limiting orographic RF on the island. This new event-based RF analysis has important implications for the projection of regional climate change in Hawai`i. Our results suggest that if storm tracks were to shift poleward, O`ahu wet season RF would be reduced. The most obvious effect is that fronts crossing the Island would likely occur less frequently reducing the number of days per year with heavy cold front rainfall. In addition, non-crossing fronts could occur more often and hence reducing the orographic RF.

A wood-strand material for wind erosion control: effects on total sediment loss, PM10 vertical flux, and PM10 loss

Treesearch

N. S. Copeland; B. S. Sharratt; J. Q. Wu; R. B. Foltz; J. H. Dooley

2009-01-01

Fugitive dust from eroding land poses risks to environmental quality and human health, and thus, is regulated nationally based on ambient air quality standards for particulate matter with mean aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) established in the Clean Air Act. Agricultural straw has been widely used for rainfall-induced...

Mixing to Monsoons: Air-Sea Interactions in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A. J.; Shroyer, E. L.; Wijesekera, H. W.; Fernando, H. J. S.; D'Asaro, E.; Ravichandran, M.; Jinadasa, S. U. P.; MacKinnon, J. A.; Nash, J. D.; Sharma, R.; Centurioni, L.; Farrar, J. T.; Weller, R.; Pinkel, R.; Mahadevan, A.; Sengupta, D.; Tandon, A.

2014-07-01

More than 1 billion people depend on rainfall from the South Asian monsoon for their livelihoods. Summertime monsoonal precipitation is highly variable on intraseasonal time scales, with alternating "active" and "break" periods. These intraseasonal oscillations in large-scale atmospheric convection and winds are closely tied to 1°C-2°C variations of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal.

Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2016-04-01

Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO, since the role of the AWP in the climate of this region and especially in the central part proves to be decisive, probably due to changes in moisture and heat flows transferred to the atmosphere.

Winds at the Phoenix Landing Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holstein-Rathlou, C.; Gunnlaugsson, H. P.; Taylor, P.; Lange, C.; Moores, J.; Lemmon, M.

2008-12-01

Local wind speeds and directions have been measured at the Phoenix landing site using the Telltale wind indicator. The Telltale is mounted on top of the meteorological mast at roughly 2 meters height above the surface. The Telltale is a mechanical anemometer consisting of a lightweight cylinder suspended by Kevlar fibers that are deflected under the action of wind. Images taken with the Surface Stereo Imager (SSI) of the Telltale deflection allows the wind speed and direction to be quantified. Winds aloft have been estimated using image series (10 images ~ 50 s apart) taken of the Zenith (Zenith Movies). In contrast enhanced images cloud like features are seen to move through the image field and give indication of directions and angular speed. Wind speeds depend on the height of where these features originate while directions are unambiguously determined. The wind data shows dominant wind directions and diurnal variations, likely caused by slope winds. Recent night time measurements show frost formation on the Telltale mirror. The results will be discussed in terms of global and slope wind modeling and the current calibration of the data is discussed. It will also be illustrated how wind data can aid in interpreting temperature fluctuations seen on the lander.

Spatial-temporal analysis of coherent offshore wind field structures measured by scanning Doppler-lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valldecabres, L.; Friedrichs, W.; von Bremen, L.; Kühn, M.

2016-09-01

An analysis of the spatial and temporal power fluctuations of a simplified wind farm model is conducted on four offshore wind fields data sets, two from lidar measurements and two from LES under unstable and neutral atmospheric conditions. The integral length scales of the horizontal wind speed computed in the streamwise and the cross-stream direction revealed the elongation of the structures in the direction of the mean flow. To analyse the effect of the structures on the power output of a wind turbine, the aggregated equivalent power of two wind turbines with different turbine spacing in the streamwise and cross-stream direction is analysed at different time scales under 10 minutes. The fact of considering the summation of the power of two wind turbines smooths out the fluctuations of the power output of a single wind turbine. This effect, which is stronger with increasing spacing between turbines, can be seen in the aggregation of the power of two wind turbines in the streamwise direction. Due to the anti-correlation of the coherent structures in the cross-stream direction, this smoothing effect is stronger when the aggregated power is computed with two wind turbines aligned orthogonally to the mean flow direction.

The Nature of the Medieval Warm Period - Little Ice Ace Transition in an Annually Resolved Speleothem Record from Voli Voli Cave, Fiji

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Garcia-Anton, E.; Hoffmann, D.; Dredge, J. A.; Fisher, R. E.; Lowry, D.

2011-12-01

The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergance Zone, which is closest to the islands during the wet summer season and weakens when migrating north during the drier winter season. Annual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events with dry spells sometimes leading to drought conditions during El Nino events. A laminated speleothem from Voli Voli cave Fiji spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age. Fabrics change from calcite with thin clay layers at the base to white laminated calcite and the older record is characterised by elevated δ13C values then a rapid decrease in δ13C, dated at 1200-1300 AD, coinciding with the onset of clean calcite deposition. δ18O values define a simpler trend that monotonically decreases by ≈1% across the transition but high resolution micromilling at 100 micron resolution reveals smooth oscillations in δ18O and a key question is whether these cycles are annual or multi-annual features. To understand relationships between local cave processes and seasonal weather patterns, a program of cave monitoring has been underway since 2009. Voli Voli cave is a descending passage that terminates near a fissured cliff facing the SE trade winds; these are more persistent during the winter and weaken during the summer and cave monitoring shows that high cave air CO2 levels decline near the cave termination as a result of weak incoming ventilation by atmosphere driven by wind strength or chimney ventilation. The high resolution δ13C record shows regular peaks that are correlated with cycles in P and Sr and are interpreted as annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. The smooth δ18O cycles are quasi-decadal features possessing a similar frequency to ENSO with an amplitude of 2-3% equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of ≈50%. Clay layers are associated with micro hiatuses suggesting periods of drought which are much more frequent prior to the AD 1300 transition which is known to have had a widespread impact on societies in the Pacific Basin resulting in increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies. The Voli Voli record provides new evidence of an underlying climatic change and further work will provide insight into long term trends in intradecadal ENSO periodicity and intensity in terms of δ18O cycles that can be related directly to precipitation amount and sea surface temperature, improving understanding of the impact of short-lived climate changes on past and future societies.

Potential Use of BEST® Sediment Trap in Splash - Saltation Transport Process by Simultaneous Wind and Rain Tests

PubMed Central

Basaran, Mustafa; Uzun, Oguzhan; Cornelis, Wim; Gabriels, Donald; Erpul, Gunay

2016-01-01

The research on wind-driven rain (WDR) transport process of the splash-saltation has increased over the last twenty years as wind tunnel experimental studies provide new insights into the mechanisms of simultaneous wind and rain (WDR) transport. The present study was conducted to investigate the efficiency of the BEST® sediment traps in catching the sand particles transported through the splash-saltation process under WDR conditions. Experiments were conducted in a wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility with water sprayed through sprinkler nozzles and free-flowing wind at different velocities to simulate the WDR conditions. Not only for vertical sediment distribution, but a series of experimental tests for horizontal distribution of sediments was also performed using BEST® collectors to obtain the actual total sediment mass flow by the splash-saltation in the center of the wind tunnel test section. Total mass transport (kg m-2) were estimated by analytically integrating the exponential functional relationship using the measured sediment amounts at the set trap heights for every run. Results revealed the integrated efficiency of the BEST® traps at 6, 9, 12 and 15 m s-1 wind velocities under 55.8, 50.5, 55.0 and 50.5 mm h-1 rain intensities were, respectively, 83, 106, 105, and 102%. Results as well showed that the efficiencies of BEST® did not change much as compared with those under rainless wind condition. PMID:27898716

A reexamination of the emergy input to a system from the wind ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

With the establishment of a new, rigorously-determined, solar equivalence baseline for the geobiosphere, 12.0E+24 seJ y-1, it is now appropriate to reexamine the calculation of the emergy delivered by the major secondary products of the geobiosphere, e.g., wind and rainfall, which are derived from the transformation of the solar equivalent joules supplied through the baseline. In this study, the methods for calculating the available energy of the wind dissipated in the planetary boundary layer are revisited and further elucidated. Particular consideration is given to the method used to estimate the geostrophic and gradient wind from measurements of surface wind and to the role of the drag coefficient in determining the available wind energy dissipated in the boundary layer (900 to 1000 mb or the lower 1000 m of the atmosphere) as it passes over various surfaces. In addition, we made a more rigorous estimate of the transformity of the available wind energy dissipated in the planetary boundary layer based on a synthesis of the results from three evaluations of a model of the general circulation of the atmosphere. The rounded estimate of the transformity of the wind from these combined studies was 1230 sej J-1. We consider the variability of the transformity of the wind dissipated in the boundary layer between summer and winter and between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. We conclude that the properties of the system and its spatial and temporal boundarie

Characteristics of the modelled meteoric freshwater budget of the western Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Wessem, J. M.; Meredith, M. P.; Reijmer, C. H.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Cook, A. J.

2017-05-01

Rapid climatic changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) have led to considerable changes in the meteoric freshwater input into the surrounding ocean, with implications for ocean circulation, the marine ecosystem and sea-level rise. In this study, we use the high-resolution Regional Atmospheric Climate Model RACMO2.3, coupled to a firn model, to assess the various contributions to the meteoric freshwater budget of the WAP for 1979-2014: precipitation (snowfall and rainfall), meltwater runoff to the ocean, and glacial discharge. Snowfall is the largest component in the atmospheric contribution to the freshwater budget, and exhibits large spatial and temporal variability. The highest snowfall rates are orographically forced and occur over the coastal regions of the WAP (> 2000 mm water equivalent (w.e.) y-1) and extend well onto the ocean up to the continental shelf break; a minimum (∼ 500 mm w . e .y-1) is reached over the open ocean. Rainfall is an order of magnitude smaller, and strongly depends on latitude and season, being large in summer, when sea ice extent is at its minimum. For Antarctic standards, WAP surface meltwater production is relatively large (> 50 mm w . e .y-1) , but a large fraction refreezes in the snowpack, limiting runoff. Only at a few more northerly locations is the meltwater predicted to run off into the ocean. In summer, we find a strong relationship of the freshwater fluxes with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index. When SAM is positive and occurs simultaneously with a La Niña event there are anomalously strong westerly winds and enhanced snowfall rates over the WAP mountains, Marguerite Bay and the Bellingshausen Sea. When SAM coincides with an El Niño event, winds are more northerly, reducing snowfall and increasing rainfall over the ocean, and enhancing orographic snowfall over the WAP mountains. Assuming balance between snow accumulation (mass gain) and glacial discharge (mass loss), the largest glacial discharge is found for the regions around Adelaide Island (10 Gty-1) , Anvers Island (8 Gty-1) and southern Palmer Land (12 Gty-1) , while a minimum (< 2 Gty-1) is found in Marguerite Bay and the northern WAP. Glacial discharge is in the same order of magnitude as the direct freshwater input into the ocean from snowfall, but there are some local differences. The spatial patterns in the meteoric freshwater budget have consequences for local productivity and carbon drawdown in the coastal ocean.

Hydrological Regimes of Small Catchments in the High Tatra Mountains Before and After Extraordinary Wind-Induced Deforestation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holko, Ladislav; Hlavata, Helena; Kostka, Zdenek; Novak, Jan

2009-01-01

The paper presents the results of rainfall-runoff data analysis for small catchments of the upper Poprad River affected by wind-induced deforestation in November 2004. Before-event and afterevent measured data were compared in order to assess the impact of deforestation on hydrological regimes. Several characteristics were used including water balance, minimum and maximum runoff, runoff thresholds, number of runoff events, selected characteristics of events, runoff coefficients, and flashiness indices. Despite increased spring runoff minima, which in one catchment (Velick Creek) exceeded previously observed values after deforestation took place, it can be generally concluded that the impact of the deforestation was not clearly manifested in the analyzed hydrological data.

Borneo vortex and meso-scale convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.

2013-08-01

We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite datasets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by vortex stretching. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β scale rainfall patches. The warm and wet cyclonic southeasterly flow meets with the cold and dry northeasterly surge forming a confluence front in the northeastern sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall result both due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence front. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is much enhanced by nonlinear self-enhancement dynamics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ispen, J.; Deane, M.; Ingenito, F.E.

Comparison was made of industrial morbidity and absenteeism from upper respiratory disease with various measures of pollution and weather. Tests were conducted of workers visiting dispensaries of two plants in metropolitan Philadelphia and those working for the telephone company. Weekly morbidity was significantly correlated with temperature (r = -0.614), smoke shade (r = 0.556), particulate SO/sub 4/ (r = 0.289), and particulate matter (r = 0.264). Seasonal variation was in all variables. Pollution measures were inversely related to temperature. Particulate and SO/sub 4/ were inversely related to rainfall. SO/sub 4/ was inversely related to wind velocity. Daily correlations show day-of-weekmore » effect with lower morbidity and pollution on weekends. Higher prevalence/incidence ratio in winter was found. High morbidity was preceded by a week with low temperatures, high relative humidity, high wind velocity, and high pollutant levels, and accompanied by low temperatures, high relative humidity, and high wind.« less

Use of eddy-covariance methods to "calibrate" simple estimators of evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, David M.; Geurink, Jeffrey S.; Swancar, Amy

2017-01-01

Direct measurement of actual evapotranspiration (ET) provides quantification of this large component of the hydrologic budget, but typically requires long periods of record and large instrumentation and labor costs. Simple surrogate methods of estimating ET, if “calibrated” to direct measurements of ET, provide a reliable means to quantify ET. Eddy-covariance measurements of ET were made for 12 years (2004-2015) at an unimproved bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) pasture in Florida. These measurements were compared to annual rainfall derived from rain gage data and monthly potential ET (PET) obtained from a long-term (since 1995) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) statewide, 2-kilometer, daily PET product. The annual proportion of ET to rainfall indicates a strong correlation (r2=0.86) to annual rainfall; the ratio increases linearly with decreasing rainfall. Monthly ET rates correlated closely (r2=0.84) to the USGS PET product. The results indicate that simple surrogate methods of estimating actual ET show positive potential in the humid Florida climate given the ready availability of historical rainfall and PET.

The effects of simulated rainfall on immature population dynamics of Aedes albopictus and female oviposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Hamady; Rahman, G. M. Saifur; Abu Hassan, A.; Che Salmah, M. R.; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Boots, Michael; Sazaly, Abubakar

2012-01-01

Larvae of Aedes albopictus Skuse typically inhabit natural and artificial containers. Since these larval habitats are replenished by rainfall, Ae. albopictus may experience increased loss of immature stages in areas with high levels of rainfall. In this study, we investigated the effects of rainfall and container water level on population density, and oviposition activity of Ae. albopictus. In field and laboratory experiments, we found that rainfall resulted in the flushing of breeding habitats. Excess rain negatively impacted larval and pupal retention, especially in small habitats. When filled with water to overflowing, container habitats were significantly repellent to ovipositing females. Taken together, these data suggest that rainfall triggers population loss of Ae. albopictus and related species through a direct detrimental effect (flushing out) and an indirect effect (ovipositional repellency).

Transport of airborne pollen into the city of Thessaloniki: the effects of wind direction, speed and persistence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damialis, Athanasios; Gioulekas, Dimitrios; Lazopoulou, Chariklia; Balafoutis, Christos; Vokou, Despina

2005-01-01

We examined the effect of the wind vector analyzed into its three components (direction, speed and persistence), on the circulation of pollen from differe nt plant taxa prominent in the Thessaloniki area for a 4-year period (1996- 1999). These plant taxa were Ambrosia spp., Artemisia spp., Chenopodiaceae, spp., Cupressaceae, Olea europaea, Pinaceae, Platanus spp., Poaceae, Populus spp., Quercus spp., and Urticaceae. Airborne pollen of Cupressaceae, Urticaceae, Quercus spp. and O. europaea make up approximately 70% of the total average annual pollen counts. The set of data that we worked with represented days without precipitation and time intervals during which winds blew from the same direction for at least 4 consecutive hours. We did this in order to study the effect of the different wind components independently of precipitation, and to avoid secondary effects produced by pollen resuspension phenomena. Factorial regression analysis among the summed bi-hourly pollen counts for each taxon and the values of wind speed and persistence per wind direction gave significant results in 22 cases (combinations of plant taxa and wind directions). The pollen concentrations of all taxa correlated significantly with at least one of the three wind components. In seven out of the 22 taxon-wind direction combinations, the pollen counts correlated positively with wind persistence, whereas this was the case for only two of the taxon-wind speed combinations. In seven cases, pollen counts correlated with the interaction effect of wind speed and persistence. This shows the importance of wind persistence in pollen transport, particularly when weak winds prevail for a considerable part of the year, as is the case for Thessaloniki. Medium/long-distance pollen transport was evidenced for Olea (NW, SW directions), Corylus (NW, SW), Poaceae (SW) and Populus (NW).

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

Wind direction change criteria for wind turbine design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cliff, W.C.

1979-01-01

A method is presented for estimating the root mean square (rms) value of the wind direction change, ..delta..theta(tau) = theta(tau + tau) - theta(tau), that occurs over the swept area of wind turbine rotor systems. An equation is also given for the rms value of the wind direction change that occurs at a single point in space, i.e., a direcion change that a wind vane would measure. Assuming a normal probability density function for the lateral wind velocity change and relating this to angular changes, equations are given for calculating the expected number of wind direction changes, larger than anmore » arbitrary value, that will occur in 1 hr as well as the expected number that will occur during the design life of a wind turbine. The equations presented are developed using a small angle approximation and are, therefore, considered appropriate for wind direction changes of less than 30/sup 0/. The equations presented are based upon neutral atmospheric boundary-layer conditions and do not include information regarding events such as tornados, hurricanes, etc.« less

Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Y.; Choi, N.-J.; Schmidt, A. R.

2013-05-01

This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute to direct runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

Contribution of directly connected and isolated impervious areas to urban drainage network hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Y.; Choi, N.-J.; Schmidt, A. R.

2013-09-01

This paper addresses the mass balance error observed in runoff hydrographs in urban watersheds by introducing assumptions regarding the contribution of infiltrated rainfall from pervious areas and isolated impervious area (IIA) to the runoff hydrograph. Rainfall infiltrating into pervious areas has been assumed not to contribute to the runoff hydrograph until Hortonian excess rainfall occurs. However, mass balance analysis in an urban watershed indicates that rainfall infiltrated to pervious areas can contribute directly to the runoff hydrograph, thereby offering an explanation for the long hydrograph tail commonly observed in runoff from urban storm sewers. In this study, a hydrologic analysis based on the width function is introduced, with two types of width functions obtained from both pervious and impervious areas, respectively. The width function can be regarded as the direct interpretation of the network response. These two width functions are derived to obtain distinct response functions for directly connected impervious areas (DCIA), IIA, and pervious areas. The results show significant improvement in the estimation of runoff hydrographs and suggest the need to consider the flow contribution from pervious areas to the runoff hydrograph. It also implies that additional contribution from flow paths through joints and cracks in sewer pipes needs to be taken into account to improve the estimation of runoff hydrographs in urban catchments.

The effects of wind and altitude in the 400-m sprint.

PubMed

Quinn, Mike D

2004-01-01

In this paper I use a mathematical model to simulate the effect of wind and altitude on men's and women's 4400-m race performances. Both wind speed and direction were altered to calculate the effect on the velocity profile and the final time of the sprinter. The simulation shows that for a constant wind velocity, changing the wind direction can produce a large variation in the race time and velocity profile. A wind of velocity 2 m x s(-1) is generally a disadvantage to the 400-m runner but this is not so for all wind directions. Constant winds blowing from some directions can provide favourable conditions for the one-lap runner. Differences between the running lanes can be reduced or exaggerated depending on the wind direction. For example, a wind blowing behind the runner in the back straight increases the advantage of lane 8 over lane 1. Wind conditions can change the velocity profile and in some circumstances produce a maximum velocity much later than is evident in windless conditions. Lower air density at altitude produces a time advantage of around 0.06 s for men (0.07 s for women) for each 500-m increase in elevation.

Variability of CO2 fugacity at the western edge of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from the 8°N to 38°W PIRATA buoy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruto, Leonardo; Araujo, Moacyr; Noriega, Carlos; Veleda, Dóris; Lefèvre, Nathalie

2017-06-01

Hourly data of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) at 8°N-38°W were analyzed from 2008 to 2011. Analyses of wind, rainfall, temperature and salinity data from the buoy indicated two distinct seasonal periods. The first period (January to July) had a mean fCO2 of 378.9 μatm (n = 7512). During this period, in which the study area was characterized by small salinity variations, the fCO2 is mainly controlled by sea surface temperature (SST) variations (fCO2 = 24.4*SST-281.1, r2 = 0.8). During the second period (August-December), the mean fCO2 was 421.9 μatm (n = 11571). During these months, the region is subjected to the simultaneous action of (a) rainfall induced by the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); (b) arrival of fresh water from the Amazon River plume that is transported to the east by the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) after the retroflection of the North Brazil Current (NBC); and (c) vertical input of CO2-rich water due to Ekman pumping. The data indicated the existence of high-frequency fCO2 variability (periods less than 24 h). This high variability is related to two different mechanisms. In the first mechanism, fCO2 increases are associated to rapid increases in SST and are attributed to the diurnal cycle of solar radiation. In addition, low wind speed contributes to SST rising by inhibiting vertical mixing. In the second mechanism, fCO2 decreases are associated to SSS decreases caused by heavy rainfall.

Integrated modeling of the dynamic meteorological and sea surface conditions during the passage of Typhoon Morakot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Han Soo; Yamashita, Takao; Hsu, John R.-C.; Ding, Fei

2013-01-01

In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere-waves-ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave-current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave-current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain.

The consecutive dry days to trigger rainfall over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. H.

2018-01-01

In order to resolve contradictions in addressing a soil moisture-precipitation feedback mechanism over West Africa and to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, we first validated various data sets (SMOS satellite soil moisture observations, NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models) with the Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine (AMMA) field campaign data. Based on this analysis, it was suggested that biases of data sets might cause contradictions in studying mechanisms. Thus, by taking into account uncertainties in data, it was found that the approach of consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative comparison of time-series) showed consistency across various data sets, while the direct comparison approach for soil moisture state and rainfall did not. Thus, it was discussed that it may be difficult to directly relate rain with soil moisture as the absolute value, however, it may be reasonable to compare a temporal progress of the variables. Based upon the results consistently showing a positive relationship between the consecutive dry days and rainfall, this study supports a negative feedback often neglected by climate model structure. This approach is less sensitive to interpretation errors arising from systematic errors in data sets, as this measures a temporal gradient of soil moisture state.

Influences of the Agulhas Current on South African terrestrial climate as inferred from speleothem stable isotope records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, K.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Ayalon, A.; Marean, C.; Herries, A. I. R.; Zahn, R.; Matthews, A.

2012-04-01

South African (SA) climate is strongly influenced by the circulation systems surrounding the subcontinent. The warm tropical Agulhas Current provides large amounts of moisture, transported onshore by south-easterly trade winds during summer. As the trade wind shifts north during winter, the south-western tip of SA is especially affected by temperate westerlies. High amounts of rainfall from the Benguela region off the west coast then only affect the very south-west of the country. This seasonal pattern creates a highly variable terrestrial climate, characterized by strong E-W gradients in the seasonal distribution and amount of rainfall. As summer and winter rain is derived from sources with different properties (density, salinity, temperature), the rainfall also displays seasonal isotopic compositional variations, as for example the present mean δ18O of rainfall in Mossel Bay located in the transition region varies from ~0.13‰ in January to -6.05‰ in July. Vegetation type (C3 vs C4) also follows the rainfall regime with C4 vegetation dominating in the summer rainfall region. As part of the GATEWAYS project, speleothems are used as an excellent, high resolution, precisely dated archive of terrestrial paleoenvironmental conditions[1]. This study focuses on a speleothem record from Crevice Cave on the South African south coast (near Mossel Bay), covering the interval between ~111 and ~53 ka[1,2]. At present, the area is influenced by both summer and winter rainfall, and has mostly C3 type vegetation. Variations in the past show more positive δ18O and δ13C values in the interval corresponding to the glacial MIS 4 and indicate increased summer rainfall and C4 vegetation. This contradicts the common assumption that MIS 4 was characterized by a northward shift of the climatic belts over SA and an increase of winter rainfall and C3 vegetation in the cave area[3]. Comparison of the record to marine sediment cores from the Agulhas Retroflection area[4] and the Cape Basin[5,6] as well as an ice-core record from Antarctica[7] reveal that the speleothem δ18O and δ13C are more closely related to the sea surface temperature shifts in the Agulhas region and Antarctica (with lower δ18O and δ13C values corresponding to higher temperatures) than to the influence of global ice-volume related changes in the isotopic composition of the ocean. A contemporary record from a cave site situated ~92 km inland from Mossel Bay (E-Flux Cave, Klein Karoo) shows a very different signal, corresponding to overall changes in Obliquity[8]. The influence of the Agulhas Current is thus apparent on the coast, but reduced inland. [1] Bar-Matthews, M. et al. 2010. Quaternary Science Reviews 29 p2131. [2] Braun, K. et al. 2011. Conference Abstract, Climate Change - The Karst Record 6. Birmingham England p27. [3] Chase, B. M. & Meadows, M. E., 2007. Earth-Science Reviews 84 p103. [4] Cortese, G. et al. 2004. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 222 p767. [5] Martínez-Méndez, G. et al. (2010). Paleoceanography 25(PA4227): doi:10.1029/2009PA001879. [6] Peeters, F. J. C. et al. 2004. Nature 430 p661. [7] Petit, J. R. et al. 1999. Nature 399 p429. [8] Berger, A. L. 1978. Quaternary Research 9 p139.

Heavy rains over Chennai and surrounding areas as captured by Doppler weather radar during Northeast Monsoon 2015: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaljit, Ray; Kannan, B. A. M.; Stella, S.; Sen, Bikram; Sharma, Pradip; Thampi, S. B.

2016-05-01

During the Northeast monsoon season, India receives about 11% of its annual rainfall. Many districts in South Peninsula receive 30-60% of their annual rainfall. Coastal Tamil Nadu receives 60% of its annual rainfall and interior districts about 40-50 %. During the month of November, 2015, three synoptic scale weather systems affected Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry causing extensive rainfall activity over the region. Extremely heavy rains occurred over districts of Chennai, Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram, due to which these 3 districts were fully inundated. 122 people in Tamil Nadu were reported to have died due to the flooding, while over 70,000 people had been rescued. State government reported flood damage of the order of around Rs 8481 Crores. The rainfall received in Chennai district during 1.11.2015 to 5.12.2015 was 1416.8 mm against the normal of 408.4 mm. The extremely heavy rains were found to be associated with strong wind surges at lower tropospheric levels, which brought in lot of moisture flux over Chennai and adjoining area. The subtropical westerly trough at mid-tropospheric levels extended much southwards than its normal latitude, producing favorable environment for sustained rising motions ahead of approaching trough over coastal Tamil Nadu. Generated strong upward velocities in the clouds lifted the cloud tops to very high levels forming deep convective clouds. These clouds provided very heavy rainfall of the order of 150-200 mm/hour. In this paper we have used radar data to examine and substantiate the cloud burst that led to these torrential rains over Chennai and adjoining areas during the Northeast Monsoon period, 2015.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

2017-03-01

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xianling; Ren, Fumin; Li, Yunjie; Qiu, Wenyu; Ma, Zhuguo; Cai, Qinbo

2018-05-01

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall (TMDR) using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend [-0.7 (10 yr)-1], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2 (10 yr)-1] and a weak increasing trend [0.1 (10 yr)-1], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR - 50 mm and - 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR - 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm (TCER) events] peaking in August and September. The western region (Changjiang) of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-hPa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

Atmospheric circulation feedback on west Asian dust and Indian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, Dimitris; Houssos, Elias; Gautam, Ritesh; Singh, Ramesh; Rashki, Alireza; Dumka, Umesh

2016-04-01

Classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high aerosol loading events over the Ganges valley, via the synergy of Factor and Cluster analysis techniques, has indicated six different synoptic weather patterns, two of which mostly occur during late pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons (May to September). The current study focuses on examining these two specific clusters that are associated with different mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields that seem to affect the aerosol (mostly dust) emissions and precipitation distribution over the Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, the study reveals that enhanced aerosol presence over the Arabian Sea is positively associated with increased rainfall over the Indian landmass. The increased dust over the Arabian Sea and rainfall over India are associated with deepening of the northwestern Indian and Arabian lows that increase thermal convection and convergence of humid air masses into Indian landmass, resulting in larger monsoon precipitation. For this cluster, negative MSLP and Z700 anomalies are observed over the Arabian Peninsula that enhance the dust outflow from Arabia and, concurrently, the southwesterly air flow resulting in increase in monsoon precipitation over India. The daily precipitation over India is found to be positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea for both weather clusters, thus verifying recent results from satellite observations and model simulations concerning the modulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the Arabian dust. The present work reveals that in addition to the radiative impacts of dust on modulating the monsoon rainfall, differing weather patterns favor changes in dust emissions, accumulation as well as rainfall distribution over south Asia.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albers, Cerese; Miller, Timothy; Uhlhorn, Eric; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2012-01-01

The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.

Evolving Improvements to TRMM Ground Validation Rainfall Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, M.; Kulie, M. S.; Marks, D. A.; Wolff, D. B.; Ferrier, B. S.; Amitai, E.; Silberstein, D. S.; Fisher, B. L.; Wang, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The primary function of the TRMM Ground Validation (GV) Program is to create GV rainfall products that provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements for select primary sites. Since the successful 1997 launch of the TRMM satellite, GV rainfall estimates have demonstrated systematic improvements directly related to improved radar and rain gauge data, modified science techniques, and software revisions. Improved rainfall estimates have resulted in higher quality GV rainfall products and subsequently, much improved evaluation products for the satellite-based precipitation estimates from TRMM. This presentation will demonstrate how TRMM GV rainfall products created in a semi-automated, operational environment have evolved and improved through successive generations. Monthly rainfall maps and rainfall accumulation statistics for each primary site will be presented for each stage of GV product development. Contributions from individual product modifications involving radar reflectivity (Ze)-rain rate (R) relationship refinements, improvements in rain gauge bulk-adjustment and data quality control processes, and improved radar and gauge data will be discussed. Finally, it will be demonstrated that as GV rainfall products have improved, rainfall estimation comparisons between GV and satellite have converged, lending confidence to the satellite-derived precipitation measurements from TRMM.

Wavelet analysis for wind fields estimation.

PubMed

Leite, Gladeston C; Ushizima, Daniela M; Medeiros, Fátima N S; de Lima, Gilson G

2010-01-01

Wind field analysis from synthetic aperture radar images allows the estimation of wind direction and speed based on image descriptors. In this paper, we propose a framework to automate wind direction retrieval based on wavelet decomposition associated with spectral processing. We extend existing undecimated wavelet transform approaches, by including à trous with B(3) spline scaling function, in addition to other wavelet bases as Gabor and Mexican-hat. The purpose is to extract more reliable directional information, when wind speed values range from 5 to 10 ms(-1). Using C-band empirical models, associated with the estimated directional information, we calculate local wind speed values and compare our results with QuikSCAT scatterometer data. The proposed approach has potential application in the evaluation of oil spills and wind farms.

On the relationships of gas transfer velocity with turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and wind waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, D.

2012-12-01

The exchange of carbon dioxide across the air-sea interface is an important component of the atmospheric CO2 budget. Understanding how future changes in climate will affect oceanic uptake and releaser CO2 requires accurate estimation of air-sea CO2 flux. This flux is typically expressed as the product of gas transfer velocity, CO2 partial pressure difference in seawater and air, and the CO2 solubility. As the key parameter, gas transfer velocity has long been known to be controlled by the near-surface turbulence in water, which is affected by many factors, such as wind forcing, ocean waves, water-side convection and rainfall. Although the wind forcing is believed as the major factor dominating the near-surface turbulence, many studies have shown that the wind waves and their breaking would greatly enhance turbulence compared with the classical solid wall theory. Gas transfer velocity has been parameterized in terms of wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate, and wave parameters on the basis of observational data or theoretical analysis. However, great discrepancies, as large as one order, exist among these formulas. In this study, we will systematically analyze the differences of gas transfer velocity proposed so far, and try to find the reason that leads to their uncertainties. Finally, a new formula for gas transfer velocity will be given in terms of wind speed and wind wave parameter.

Detecting influences on California drought intervals using isotopes in tree-ring cellulose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanner, L. C.; Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.; Stahle, D. W.

2012-12-01

Multi-decadal drought events have characterized climate variability in California over the last century. However, the causes of interannual precipitation variability and the origins of multi-decadal drought in California remain unclear. We utilize the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in combination with previously developed ring-width measurements to trace the delivery of moisture to the region and investigate ocean-atmosphere patterns that might generate prolonged drought. Of the 36 Quercus douglasii (blue oak) sites in the California central valley, we have focused our work at two locations - one north of Los Angeles (34.74°N, 120°W, 1036 masl) and the other east of San Francisco (37.88°N 121.97°W, 182 masl). Using cores from at least five different trees at each location, tree-ring cellulose δ18O was measured for each year of growth from 1954 to 2004. The δ18O values of tree-ring cellulose range from 29‰ to 34‰ (VSMOW) at both sites and exhibit shared interannual variance (r = 0.43, p < 0.01). To trace changes in moisture delivery, we apply a biophysical model of cellulose δ18O and derive a proxy for rainfall δ18O. A reasonable approximation of rainfall δ18O is soil water δ18O, which, based on the biophysical model, can be estimated using cellulose δ18O, relative humidity, and temperature. High-resolution climate data from PRISM are combined with our cellulose measurements to compute soil water δ18O (and thus rainfall δ18O). Calculated rainfall δ18O is well correlated between the two locations (r = 0.55, p < 0.001) and the variance in δ18O at each site is 6‰. In terms of regional climate changes, our rainfall δ18O proxy exhibits a positive correlation with local precipitation amount, inferred from tree-ring width (r = 0.66, p < 0.001). This positive correlation suggests rainfall amount cannot be the main influence on the isotopic composition because changes in δ18O solely due to amount typically occur in the negative direction (the so-called amount effect usually observed in the tropics). Instead, we hypothesize that shifts in the moisture source region are of primary importance because moisture from high latitude sources has a lower isotopic composition compared to subtropical regions. Using NCAR reanalysis data, wind field anomalies suggest that moisture is derived from the north during dry years (low δ18O) and from the subtropics during wet years (high δ18O). Additional processes such as condensation height and post-condensation effects may also be important in controlling isotopic variability.

An empirical model for ocean radar backscatter and its application in inversion routine to eliminate wind speed and direction effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dome, G. J.; Fung, A. K.; Moore, R. K.

1977-01-01

Several regression models were tested to explain the wind direction dependence of the 1975 JONSWAP (Joint North Sea Wave Project) scatterometer data. The models consider the radar backscatter as a harmonic function of wind direction. The constant term accounts for the major effect of wind speed and the sinusoidal terms for the effects of direction. The fundamental accounts for the difference in upwind and downwind returns, while the second harmonic explains the upwind-crosswind difference. It is shown that a second harmonic model appears to adequately explain the angular variation. A simple inversion technique, which uses two orthogonal scattering measurements, is also described which eliminates the effect of wind speed and direction. Vertical polarization was shown to be more effective in determining both wind speed and direction than horizontal polarization.

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

Systematic errors in the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon: the role of rainfall variability on a range of time and space scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Gill; Levine, Richard; Klingaman, Nicholas; Bush, Stephanie; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven

2015-04-01

Despite considerable efforts worldwide to improve model simulations of the Asian summer monsoon, significant biases still remain in climatological seasonal mean rainfall distribution, timing of the onset, and northward and eastward extent of the monsoon domain (Sperber et al., 2013). Many modelling studies have shown sensitivity to convection and boundary layer parameterization, cloud microphysics and land surface properties, as well as model resolution. Here we examine the problems in representing short-timescale rainfall variability (related to convection parameterization), problems in representing synoptic-scale systems such as monsoon depressions (related to model resolution), and the relationship of each of these with longer-term systematic biases. Analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall intensity on a range of timescales ranging from ~30 minutes to daily, in the MetUM and in observations (where available), highlights how rainfall biases in the South Asian monsoon region on different timescales in different regions can be achieved in models through a combination of the incorrect frequency and/or intensity of rainfall. Over the Indian land area, the typical dry bias is related to sub-daily rainfall events being too infrequent, despite being too intense when they occur. In contrast, the wet bias regions over the equatorial Indian Ocean are mainly related to too frequent occurrence of lower-than-observed 3-hourly rainfall accumulations which result in too frequent occurrence of higher-than-observed daily rainfall accumulations. This analysis sheds light on the model deficiencies behind the climatological seasonal mean rainfall biases that many models exhibit in this region. Changing physical parameterizations alters this behaviour, with associated adjustments in the climatological rainfall distribution, although the latter is not always improved (Bush et al., 2014). This suggests a more complex interaction between the diabatic heating and the large-scale circulation than is indicated by the intensity and frequency of rainfall alone. Monsoon depressions and low pressure systems are important contributors to monsoon rainfall over central and northern India, areas where MetUM climate simulations typically show deficient monsoon rainfall. Analysis of MetUM climate simulations at resolutions ranging from N96 (~135km) to N512 (~25km) suggests that at lower resolution the numbers and intensities of monsoon depressions and low pressure systems and their associated rainfall are very low compared with re-analyses/observations. We show that there are substantial increases with horizontal resolution, but resolution is not the only factor. Idealised simulations, either using nudged atmospheric winds or initialised coupled hindcasts, which improve (strengthen) the mean state monsoon and cyclonic circulation over the Indian peninsula, also result in a substantial increase in monsoon depressions and associated rainfall. This suggests that a more realistic representation of monsoon depressions is possible even at lower resolution if the larger-scale systematic error pattern in the monsoon is improved.

Relationships between microbial water quality and environmental conditions in coastal recreational waters: the Fylde coast, UK.

PubMed

Crowther, J; Kay, D; Wyer, M D

2001-12-01

This paper explores ways in which the analysis of microbial data from routine compliance monitoring, in combination with basic environmental data, can provide insight into the factors affecting faecal-indicator organism concentrations in coastal waters. In the case study presented, eight designated bathing waters on the Fylde coast are continuing to exhibit unreliable compliance with the Imperative standards for total coliform (TC) and faecal coliform (FC) concentrations specified in the EU Bathing Water Directive (76/160/EEC), despite significant reductions in geometric mean concentrations following recent major investment in the sewerage infrastructure. Faecal streptococci (FS) concentrations have remained high and have not been improved by the new sewerage schemes. The results suggest that, prior to the schemes, higher bacterial concentrations were strongly associated with rainfall; and sewage sources were important for TC and FC, but less important for FS, which may have been more strongly affected by diffuse catchment sources. In the post-schemes period, catchment sources appear to be of greater significance; rainfall remains as a significant, though less important, predictor; and tide height at time of sampling, together with variables such as sunshine and the proportion of onshore winds (which affect the survival and movement of bacteria that have already entered the coastal waters), assume greater significance. The approach used here provides a cost-effective management tool for the exploratory investigation of any monitoring point that is failing to meet recreational water quality standards.

Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.

2018-02-01

The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the development of long duration MJO and would result in short duration high frequency MJO type which confined over Indian Ocean and south peninsular India and hence make all the El Nino and IOD years to be excess rainfall years for NEM season.

Position paper on the potential of inadvertent weather modification of the Florida peninsula resulting from the stabilized ground cloud

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollay, E.; Bosart, L.; Droessler, E.; Jiusto, J.; Lala, G. G.; Mohnen, V.; Schaefer, V.; Squires, P.

1976-01-01

Based on the climatology of the Florida Peninsula, we assessed the risk for weather modification. Certain weather situations warrant launch rescheduling because of the risk of possible impact on hurricanes, hail formation and lightning activity, strong wind developments, and intensification of high rainfall rates. The cumulative effects of 40 launches per year on weather modification were found to be insignificant.

Wadi Habawnah, Saudi Arabia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

These unique weathered volcanic intrusions near Wadi Habawnah, Saudi Arabia (18.0N, 44.0E) are located near Najran, north of the Yemen border. This harsh and rugged desert landscape has been heavily wind eroded and, to a lesser extent, water eroded, as evidenced by the dendritic patterns in this region where rainfall is a seldom occurance. Only a dwindling number of nomadic tribes inhabit this harsh region of few resources.

Structural Changes and Convective Processes in Tropical Cyclones as Seen in Infrared and Water Vapor Satellite Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-10

tropical depression; yellow, a tropical storm ; red, a typhoon; and purple, an extratropical cyclone (after http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital- typhoon... storm (JTWC 2012). Tropical Storm Jelawat continued into the Sea of Japan, where it completed extratropical transition (JTWC 2012...including strong winds, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rainfall, threaten archipelagos, densely crowded coastlines, and naval forces ashore and

Rainfall and geomorphic aspects of post-fire soil erosion - Schultz Fire 2010

Treesearch

Ann Youberg; Karen A. Koestner; Daniel G. Neary; Peter E. Koestner

2011-01-01

The human-caused Schultz Fire near Flagstaff, Arizona burned 6,100 ha (15,075 acres) on the Coconino National Forest between June 20th and 30th, 2010. Ignited by an abandoned campfire, high winds drove the fire over approximately 60% of the total area burned during the first 12 hours (U.S. Forest Service, 2010). The majority of the area burned at moderate (27%) or high...

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-09-25

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s. PMID:26404333

Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

2017-09-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

Temporal and spatial variation of maximum wind speed days during the past 20 years in major cities of Xinjiang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidourela, Aliya; Jing, Zhen; Zhayimu, Kahaer; Abulaiti, Adili; Ubuli, Hakezi

2018-04-01

Wind erosion and sandstorms occur in the neighborhood of exposed dust sources. Wind erosion and desertification increase the frequency of dust storms, deteriorate air quality, and damage the ecological environment and agricultural production. The Xinjiang region has a relatively fragile ecological environment. Therefore, the study of the characteristics of maximum wind speed and wind direction in this region is of great significance to disaster prevention and mitigation, the management of activated dunes, and the sustainable development of the region. Based on the latest data of 71 sites in Xinjiang, this study explores the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum wind speed in Xinjiang from 1993 to 2013, and highlights the distribution of annual and monthly maximum wind speed and the characteristics of wind direction in Xinjiang. Between 1993 and 2013, Ulugchat County exhibited the highest number of days with the maximum wind speed (> 17 m/s), while Wutian exhibited the lowest number. In Xinjiang, 1999 showed the highest number of maximum wind speed days (257 days), while 2013 showed the lowest number (69 days). Spring and summer wind speeds were greater than those in autumn and winter. There were obvious differences in the direction of maximum wind speed in major cities and counties of Xinjiang. East of the Tianshan Mountains, maximum wind speeds are mainly directed southeast and northeast. North and south of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed northwest and northeast, while west of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed southeast and northwest.

Soil Texture Mediates the Response of Tree Cover to Rainfall Intensity in African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, M. F.; Staver, A. C.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models predict widespread shifts in the frequency and intensity of rainfall, even where mean annual rainfall does not change. Resulting changes in soil moisture dynamics could have major consequences for plant communities and ecosystems, but the direction of potential vegetation responses can be challenging to predict. In tropical savannas, where tree and grasses coexist, contradictory lines of evidence have suggested that tree cover could respond either positively or negatively to less frequent, more intense rainfall. Here, we analyzed remote sensing data and continental-scale soils maps to examine whether soil texture or fire could explain heterogeneous responses of savanna tree cover to intra-annual rainfall variability across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that tree cover generally increases with mean wet-season rainfall, decreases with mean wet-season rainfall intensity, and decreases with fire frequency. However, soil sand content mediates these relationships: the response to rainfall intensity switches qualitatively depending on soil texture, such that tree cover decreases dramatically with less frequent, more intense rainfall on clay soils but increases with rainfall intensity on sandy soils in semi-arid savannas. We propose potential ecohydrological mechanisms for this heterogeneous response, and emphasize that predictions of savanna vegetation responses to global change should account for interactions between soil texture and changing rainfall patterns.

Rainfall as a trigger for stratification and winter phytoplankton growth in temperate shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardine, Jenny; Palmer, Matthew; Mahaffey, Claire; Holt, Jason; Mellor, Adam; Wakelin, Sarah

2017-04-01

We present new data from ocean gliders to investigate physical controls on stratification and phytoplankton dynamics, collected in the Celtic Sea between November 2014 and August 2015 as part of the UK Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry programme. This presentation focuses on the winter period (Jan-March) when the diurnal heating cycle results in regular but weak near surface stratification followed by night-time convection. Despite low light conditions, this daily cycle often promotes a daytime increase in observed chlorophyll fluorescence, indicative of phytoplankton growth. This daily cycle is occasionally interrupted when buoyancy inputs are sufficient to outcompete night-time convection and result in short-term periods of sustained winter stratification, typically lasting 2-3 days. Sustained stratification often coincides with periods of heavy rainfall, suggesting freshwater input from precipitation may play a role on these events by producing a subtle yet significant freshening of the surface layer of the order of 0.005 PSU. Comparing rainfall estimates with observed salinity changes confirms rainfall to often be the initiator of these winter stratification periods. As winter winds subside and solar heating increases towards spring, the water column becomes more susceptible to periods of halo-stratification, such that heavy rainfall during the winter-spring transition is likely to promote sustained stratification. The timing and extent of a heavy rainfall event in March 2015 does suggest it may be the critical trigger for shelf-wide stratification that eventually instigates the spring bloom. We propose that the timing of these downpours relative to the daily heating cycle can be a triggering mechanism for both short term and seasonal stratification in shelf seas, and so play a critical role in winter and early spring phytoplankton growth and the shelf sea carbon cycle. We further test the importance of this process using historical data, and results from the NEMO-AMM7 model to test how rainfall events have affected previous winter and spring conditions.

Controls of nitrogen cycling evaluated along a well-characterized climate gradient.

PubMed

von Sperber, Christian; Chadwick, Oliver A; Casciotti, Karen L; Peay, Kabir G; Francis, Christopher A; Kim, Amy E; Vitousek, Peter M

2017-04-01

The supply of nitrogen (N) constrains primary productivity in many ecosystems, raising the question "what controls the availability and cycling of N"? As a step toward answering this question, we evaluated N cycling processes and aspects of their regulation on a climate gradient on Kohala Volcano, Hawaii, USA. The gradient extends from sites receiving <300 mm/yr of rain to those receiving >3,000 mm/yr, and the pedology and dynamics of rock-derived nutrients in soils on the gradient are well understood. In particular, there is a soil process domain at intermediate rainfall within which ongoing weathering and biological uplift have enriched total and available pools of rock-derived nutrients substantially; sites at higher rainfall than this domain are acid and infertile as a consequence of depletion of rock-derived nutrients, while sites at lower rainfall are unproductive and subject to wind erosion. We found elevated rates of potential net N mineralization in the domain where rock-derived nutrients are enriched. Higher-rainfall sites have low rates of potential net N mineralization and high rates of microbial N immobilization, despite relatively high rates of gross N mineralization. Lower-rainfall sites have moderately low potential net N mineralization, relatively low rates of gross N mineralization, and rates of microbial N immobilization sufficient to sequester almost all the mineral N produced. Bulk soil δ 15 N also varied along the gradient, from +4‰ at high rainfall sites to +14‰ at low rainfall sites, indicating differences in the sources and dynamics of soil N. Our analysis shows that there is a strong association between N cycling and soil process domains that are defined using soil characteristics independent of N along this gradient, and that short-term controls of N cycling can be understood in terms of the supply of and demand for N. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

2016-12-01

The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different stations. Further analysis shows that this advantage of LIM is likely to arise from its representation of local zonal winds and the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

A new perspective on the raindrop size distribution and its implications for retrievals of light rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatlin, P. N.; Thurai, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Bringi, V. N.

2017-12-01

As GPM facilitates precipitation estimation at higher latitudes where light rainfall is more common it becomes more important that we can fully describe the raindrop size distribution (RSD) across the continuum of observed raindrop sizes. An adequate understanding and the capability to represent the RSD in light rain and drizzle extends from GPM radar algorithms into radiometer-based algorithms, where auto-conversion from cloud to rainwater contents and size distributions becomes important for light rain/drizzle estimation. This study provides insights into the effect of small raindrops on our ability to accurately map rainfall. The RSD has been widely defined using a gamma distribution—the assumption often being verified and approach being reinforced using measurements that imperfectly measure the small end of the RSD. However, we find that the gamma model as it is applied in its current form, to include commonly used disdrometer measurements to define it, is not capable of accurately describing the small raindrops we have observed during light rainfall. We demonstrate the difficulty encountered at light rain rates (e.g., 0.5 mm/hr or less) and for drops typically < 0.6 - 0.7 mm in diameter using a disdrometer with a pixel resolution of 50 microns operated alongside a 2DVD, with both instruments inside a small DFIR wind fence. Measurements were made in two locations with different climates—Greely, Colorado and Huntsville, Alabama. The resultant comparison reveals that the gamma RSD model overestimates the characteristic raindrop diameter (Dm), especially for light rainfall. A generalized gamma distribution provides a closer fit to the RSD observations across the continuum of raindrop sizes and highlights a drizzle mode of the RSD exists that would otherwise not be described with the commonly used gamma RSD model. Our analysis also suggests that RSD-based separation of stratiform and convective rainfall requires special consideration for light rainfall cases, especially those with small mass-weighted mean diameters (Dm < 0.6 mm).

A monsoon-like Southwest Australian circulation and its relation with rainfall in Southwest Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Li, Yun

2010-05-01

Using the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 reanalysis, and precipitation data from CMAP and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the variability and circulation features influencing the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) winter rainfall are investigated. It is found that the climate of southwest Australia bears a strong seasonality in the annual cycle and exhibits a monsoon-like atmospheric circulation, which is termed as the southwest Australian circulation (SWAC) for its several distinct features characterizing a monsoonal circulation: the seasonal reversal of winds, alternate wet and dry seasons, and an evident land-sea thermal contrast. The seasonal march of the SWAC in extended winter (May to October) is demonstrated by pentad data. An index based on the dynamics normalized seasonality was introduced to describe the behavior and variation of the winter SWAC. It is found that the winter rainfall over SWWA has a significant positive correlation with the SWAC index in both early (May to July) and late (August to October) winter. In weaker winter SWAC years there is an anti-cyclonic anomaly over southern Indian Ocean resulting in weaker westerlies and northerlies which are not favorable for more rainfall over SWWA, and the opposite combination is true in the stronger winter SWAC years. The SWAC explains not only a large portion of the interannual variability of SWWA rainfall in both early and late winter, but also the long term drying trend over SWWA in early winter. The well-coupled SWAC-SWWA rainfall relationship seems to be largely independent of the well-known effects of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO Modoki (EM). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon-like circulation may contribute to the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA.

The calculation from weather records of the requirement for clothing insulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mount, L. E.; Brown, D.

1985-12-01

Standard meteorological measurements of dry bulb temperature, wind speed, sunshine, cloud cover and rainfall are used to calculate the clothing insulation required by man for thermal comfort under given weather conditions. The calculation is based on earlier work on the effect of weather on sensible (non-evaporative) heat loss from sheep, which used the relation between heat flow, thermal insulation and the difference between body and environmental temperatures. Clothing insulation for man is estimated in two ways: as clothing (Ic) that is impervious to the effects of wind and rain; and as the equivalent depth of sheep fleece (fm), which is not impervious. This allows the assessment of wind chill for a range of clothing of varied penetration by wind instead of for only one type of garment. Results are given as daily means calculated from hourly measurements throughout 1973 for Plymouth (on the south coast of Britain) and Aberdeen (on the far northeast coast of Britain). Wind chill is estimated both by its effect on fm requirement and by the fall in air temperature that would be needed to produce under still-air conditions the same demand for fm that occurs in the actual environment. The monthly mean fm requirement is reduced by about 40% when the effect of wind is removed. When wind chill is estimated as an equivalent fall in air temperature it approximates to 1 K per knot wind speed measured at the standard meteorological height of 10 m.

Methods and apparatus for reducing peak wind turbine loads

DOEpatents

Moroz, Emilian Mieczyslaw

2007-02-13

A method for reducing peak loads of wind turbines in a changing wind environment includes measuring or estimating an instantaneous wind speed and direction at the wind turbine and determining a yaw error of the wind turbine relative to the measured instantaneous wind direction. The method further includes comparing the yaw error to a yaw error trigger that has different values at different wind speeds and shutting down the wind turbine when the yaw error exceeds the yaw error trigger corresponding to the measured or estimated instantaneous wind speed.

Acidity of vapor plume from cooling tower mixed with flue gases emitted from coal-fired power plant.

PubMed

Hlawiczka, Stanislaw; Korszun, Katarzyna; Fudala, Janina

2016-06-01

Acidity of products resulting from the reaction of flue gas components emitted from a coal-fired power plant with water contained in a vapor plume from a wet cooling tower was analyzed in a close vicinity of a power plant (710 m from the stack and 315 m from the cooling tower). Samples of this mixture were collected using a precipitation funnel where components of the mixed plumes were discharged from the atmosphere with the rainfall. To identify situations when the precipitation occurred at the same time as the wind directed the mixed vapor and flue gas plumes above the precipitation funnel, an ultrasound anemometer designed for 3D measurements of the wind field located near the funnel was used. Precipitation samples of extremely high acidity were identified - about 5% of samples collected during 12 months showed the acidity below pH=3 and the lowest recorded pH was 1.4. During the measurement period the value of pH characterizing the background acidity of the precipitation was about 6. The main outcome of this study was to demonstrate a very high, and so far completely underestimated, potential of occurrence of episodes of extremely acid depositions in the immediate vicinity of a coal-fired power plant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Runoff of pyrethroid insecticides from concrete surfaces following simulated and natural rainfalls.

PubMed

Jiang, Weiying; Haver, Darren; Rust, Michael; Gan, Jay

2012-03-01

Intensive residential use of insecticides has resulted in their ubiquitous presence as contaminants in urban surface streams. For pest eradication, urban hard surfaces such as concrete are often directly treated with pesticides, and wind/water can also carry pesticides onto hard surfaces from surrounding areas. This study expanded on previous bench-scale studies by considering pesticide runoff caused by irrigation under dry weather conditions and rain during the wet season, and evaluated the effects of pesticide residence time on concrete, single versus recurring precipitations, precipitation intensity, and concrete surface conditions, on pesticide transferability to runoff water. Runoff from concrete 1 d after pesticide treatment contained high levels of bifenthrin (82 μg/L) and permethrin (5143 μg/L for cis and 5518 μg/L for trans), indicating the importance of preventing water contact on concrete after pesticide treatments. Although the runoff transferability quickly decreased as the pesticide residence time on concrete increased, detectable residues were still found in runoff water after 3 months (89 d) exposure to hot and dry summer conditions. ANOVA analysis showed that precipitation intensities and concrete surface conditions (i.e., acid wash, silicone seal, stamping, and addition of microsilica) did not significantly affect the pesticide transferability to runoff. For concrete slabs subjected to natural rainfalls during the winter wet season, pesticide levels in the runoff decreased as the time interval between pesticide application and the rain event increased. However, bifenthrin and permethrin were still detected at 0.15-0.17 and 0.75-1.15 μg/L in the rain runoff after 7 months (221 d) from the initial treatment. In addition, pesticide concentrations showed no decrease between the two rainfall events, suggesting that concrete surfaces contaminated by pesticides may act as a reservoir for pesticide residues, leading to sustained urban runoff contamination. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wavelet Analysis for Wind Fields Estimation

PubMed Central

Leite, Gladeston C.; Ushizima, Daniela M.; Medeiros, Fátima N. S.; de Lima, Gilson G.

2010-01-01

Wind field analysis from synthetic aperture radar images allows the estimation of wind direction and speed based on image descriptors. In this paper, we propose a framework to automate wind direction retrieval based on wavelet decomposition associated with spectral processing. We extend existing undecimated wavelet transform approaches, by including à trous with B3 spline scaling function, in addition to other wavelet bases as Gabor and Mexican-hat. The purpose is to extract more reliable directional information, when wind speed values range from 5 to 10 ms−1. Using C-band empirical models, associated with the estimated directional information, we calculate local wind speed values and compare our results with QuikSCAT scatterometer data. The proposed approach has potential application in the evaluation of oil spills and wind farms. PMID:22219699

Light-Flash Wind-Direction Indicator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zysko, Jan A.

1993-01-01

Proposed wind-direction indicator read easily by distant observers. Indicator emits bright flashes of light separated by interval of time proportional to angle between true north and direction from which wind blowing. Timing of flashes indicates direction of wind. Flashes, from high-intensity stroboscopic lights seen by viewers at distances up to 5 miles or more. Also seen more easily through rain and fog. Indicator self-contained, requiring no connections to other equipment. Power demand satisfied by battery or solar power or both. Set up quickly to provide local surface-wind data for aircraft pilots during landing or hovering, for safety officers establishing hazard zones and safety corridors during handling of toxic materials, for foresters and firefighters conducting controlled burns, and for real-time wind observations during any of variety of wind-sensitive operations.

Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

PubMed

Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

2016-01-01

The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important role in modifying the cycles of water and sediment yields in Mediterranean mountain catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing wind farm layout via LES-calibrated geometric models inclusive of wind direction and atmospheric stability effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer, Cristina; Ghaisas, Niranjan

2015-04-01

The energy generation at a wind farm is controlled primarily by the average wind speed at hub height. However, two other factors impact wind farm performance: 1) the layout of the wind turbines, in terms of spacing between turbines along and across the prevailing wind direction; staggering or aligning consecutive rows; angles between rows, columns, and prevailing wind direction); and 2) atmospheric stability, which is a measure of whether vertical motion is enhanced (unstable), suppressed (stable), or neither (neutral). Studying both factors and their complex interplay with Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) is a valid approach because it produces high-resolution, 3D, turbulent fields, such as wind velocity, temperature, and momentum and heat fluxes, and it properly accounts for the interactions between wind turbine blades and the surrounding atmospheric and near-surface properties. However, LES are computationally expensive and simulating all the possible combinations of wind directions, atmospheric stabilities, and turbine layouts to identify the optimal wind farm configuration is practically unfeasible today. A new, geometry-based method is proposed that is computationally inexpensive and that combines simple geometric quantities with a minimal number of LES simulations to identify the optimal wind turbine layout, taking into account not only the actual frequency distribution of wind directions (i.e., wind rose) at the site of interest, but also atmospheric stability. The geometry-based method is calibrated with LES of the Lillgrund wind farm conducted with the Software for Offshore/onshore Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA), based on the open-access OpenFOAM libraries. The geometric quantities that offer the best correlations (>0.93) with the LES results are the blockage ratio, defined as the fraction of the swept area of a wind turbine that is blocked by an upstream turbine, and the blockage distance, the weighted distance from a given turbine to all upstream turbines that can potentially block it. Based on blockage ratio and distance, an optimization procedure is proposed that explores many different layout variables and identifies, given actual wind direction and stability distributions, the optimal wind farm layout, i.e., the one with the highest wind energy production. The optimization procedure is applied to both the calibration wind farm (Lillgrund) and a test wind farm (Horns Rev) and a number of layouts more efficient than the existing ones are identified. The optimization procedure based on geometric models proposed here can be applied very quickly (within a few hours) to any proposed wind farm, once enough information on wind direction frequency and, if available, atmospheric stability frequency has been gathered and once the number of turbines and/or the areal extent of the wind farm have been identified.

Seasonal Freshwater and Salinity Budgets in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jung Moon

Seasonal freshwater and salt budgets in the tropical Atlantic are examined by incorporating precipitation, estimated from 11 years of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. A spatially dependent formula is developed to estimate rainfall from the OLR data and the height of the base of the trade -wind inversion. This formula has been constructed by comparing rainfall records from twelve islands with the OLR data. Zonal asymmetries due to the differing cloud types in the eastern and western Atlantic and the presence of Saharan sand in the east are included. Significant inconsistencies between results of the present study the seasonal rainfall estimates of Dorman and Bourke (1981) are found. Annual and interannual variations of the moisture and freshwater budgets are examined in the same region. The seasonal moisture budget (E-P) is calculated from the above rainfall and evaporation estimated from surface data. Consistent with previous estimates, we find annual mean deficit of freshwater. The interannual variability of freshwater flux during the period 1974 to 1979 is examined. Seasonal or interannua1 variations of rainfall account for two-thirds of the variations of the freshwater flux. We examine the seasonal freshwater and salt budgets, and obtain their meridional transports by southward integration of their divergence fields. The annual freshwater transport in the tropical Atlantic is northward, ranging from 0 Sv near the equator to 0.3 Sv at 12^circ N and 20^circS. The seasonal meridional transport amounts of freshwater from surface to 500 m depth in the tropical Atlantic Ocean range from 1.35 Sv to -0.45 Sv. The strong northward freshwater transports prevail for the period summer to fall. This seasonal cycle is caused by the shifts of the ITCZ as well as the changes in the local freshwater storage. Annual and seasonal salt budgets are calculated from objectively analyzed historical (1900-1986) salinity observations. The annual salt flux in the tropical Atlantic is zero, showing that the salt flux by horizontal advection balances the flux by horizontal diffusion. The salt flux due to the diffusion is northward, and has a maximum of 5 times 10^6kg/s at 15^circN. Seasonal transport amounts of salt range from 30 times 10^6 kg/s to -35 times 10^6kg/s. The direction of the seasonal salt transports in the tropical Atlantic is northward except for the period summer to fall. We find an interannual variability of salinity along the coast of South America in the western Atlantic.

Synthesis of the Ecohydrology of a Mexican Tropical Montane Cloud Forest and Implications of Land Use and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asbjornsen, H.; Alvarado-Barrientos, M. S.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Dawson, T. E.; Geissert, D.; Goldsmith, G. R.; Gomez-Cardenas, M.; Gomez-Tagle, A.; Gotsch, S. F.; Holwerda, F.; McDonnell, J. J.; Munoz Villers, L. E.; Tobon, C.

2013-05-01

Land use conversion and climate change threaten the hydrological services from tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs), but knowledge about cloud forest ecohydrology and the effects of global change drivers is limited. Here, we present a synthesis of research that traced the hydrologic sources, fluxes and flowpaths under different land cover types degraded pasture, regenerating forest, mature forest, pine reforestation) in a seasonally dry TMCF in Veracruz, Mexico. We used hydrological (cloud water interception, CWI; streamflow) and ecophysiological measurements (transpiration, E; foliar uptake, FU) in combination with stable isotope techniques to elucidate to these ecohydrological processes. Results revealed that CWI was ≤2% of total annual rainfall due to low fog occurrence and wind speeds. Fog without rainfall reduced E by a factor of 4-5 relative to sunny conditions and by a factor of 2 relative to overcast conditions; the water 'gained' from fog suppression was ~80-100 mm year-1 relative to sunny conditions. At the canopy scale, FU resulted in the recovery of 9% of total E, suggesting a crucial role in alleviating water deficit; but not sufficient to offset the 17% water loss from nighttime E. Trees primarily utilized water from 30-50 cm soil depth, while water reaching the stream was derived from deep, 'old' water that was distinct from 'new' rainwater and plant water. Soils had high infiltration rates and water storage capacity, which contributed to the relatively low rainfall-runoff response, mainly generated from deep subsurface flowpaths. Conversion of mature forest to pasture or forest regeneration on former TMCF increased annual water yield by 600 mm and 300 mm, respectively, while planting pine on degraded pastures reduced water yield by 365 mm. Our results suggest that the ecophysiological effects of fog via suppressed E and FU have a greater impact on water yield than direct inputs from CWI in this TMCF. Rapid vertical rainfall percolation and recharge result in a largely groundwater driven system whereby streamflow dynamics is uncoupled from plant water uptake, and water storage and buffering capacity are exceptionally high. These factors, combined with the soil properties, resulted in reduced dry season flows due to land use conversion to pasture only being detected towards the end of the dry season. Projected lifting of the cloud base associated with regional climate change combined with declining rainfall may significantly alter ecohydrological functions of these TMCFs.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Temporal dynamics of airborne fungi in Havana (Cuba) during dry and rainy seasons: influence of meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almaguer, Michel; Aira, María-Jesús; Rodríguez-Rajo, F. Javier; Rojas, Teresa I.

2014-09-01

The aim of this paper was to determine for first time the influence of the main meteorological parameters on the atmospheric fungal spore concentration in Havana (Cuba). This city is characterized by a subtropical climate with two different marked annual rainfall seasons during the year: a "dry season" and a "rainy season". A nonviable volumetric methodology (Lanzoni VPPS-2000 sampler) was used to sample airborne spores. The total number of spores counted during the 2 years of study was 293,594, belonging to 30 different genera and five spore types. Relative humidity was the meteorological parameter most influencing the atmospheric concentration of the spores, mainly during the rainy season of the year. Winds coming from the SW direction also increased the spore concentration in the air. In terms of spore intradiurnal variation we found three different patterns: morning maximum values for Cladosporium, night peaks for Coprinus and Leptosphaeria, and uniform behavior throughout the whole day for Aspergillus/ Penicillium."

Predation by dipteran larvae on fairy shrimp (Crustacea: Anostraca) in Utah rock pools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, T.B.

1994-01-01

A series of experiments examined how ecological factors affect notonectid foraging success on fairy shrimp. Variation in pond depth over natural ranges had no direct effect on notonectid ability to capture fairy shrimp. Decreases in water clarity over natural ranges led to decreased notonectid ability to capture fairy shrimp. This corresponds with the observation that six weeks after the fairy shrimp hatched they were more likely to be present in cloudy ponds than in ponds containing clearer water. If correct, this is a situation where physical factors have a major effect on how a biological interaction influences the local distribution of species. It appears water depth indirectly affects notonectid foraging rates, as shallow ponds are apparently made cloudy by wind-driven waves disturbing the bottom mud. These results suggest the notonectid-fairy shrimp interaction will not be a constant for any given pond, but will depend on abiotic factors like amount of rainfall and frequency of windy conditions.

Anomalous Near-Surface Low-Salinity Pulses off the Central Oregon Coast

PubMed Central

Mazzini, Piero L. F.; Risien, Craig M.; Barth, John A.; Pierce, Stephen D.; Erofeev, Anatoli; Dever, Edward P.; Kosro, P. Michael; Levine, Murray D.; Shearman, R. Kipp; Vardaro, Michael F.

2015-01-01

From mid-May to August 2011, extreme runoff in the Columbia River ranged from 14,000 to over 17,000 m3/s, more than two standard deviations above the mean for this period. The extreme runoff was the direct result of both melting of anomalously high snowpack and rainfall associated with the 2010–2011 La Niña. The effects of this increased freshwater discharge were observed off Newport, Oregon, 180 km south of the Columbia River mouth. Salinity values as low as 22, nine standard deviations below the climatological value for this period, were registered at the mid-shelf. Using a network of ocean observing sensors and platforms, it was possible to capture the onshore advection of the Columbia River plume from the mid-shelf, 20 km offshore, to the coast and eventually into Yaquina Bay (Newport) during a sustained wind reversal event. Increased freshwater delivery can influence coastal ocean ecosystems and delivery of offshore, river-influenced water may influence estuarine biogeochemistry. PMID:26607750

An Analysis of Wintertime Winds in Washington, D.C.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berg, Larry K.; Allwine, K Jerry

This report consists of a description of the wintertime climatology of wind speed and wind direction around the National Mall in Washington, D.C. Meteorological data for this study were collected at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (Reagan National), Dulles International Airport (Dulles), and a set of surface meteorological stations that are located on a number of building tops around the National Mall. A five-year wintertime climatology of wind speed and wind direction measured at Reagan National and Dulles are presented. A more detailed analysis was completed for the period December 2003 through February 2004 using data gathered from stations locatedmore » around the National Mall, Reagan National, and Dulles. Key findings of our study include the following: * There are systematic differences between the wind speed and wind direction observed at Reagan National and the wind speed and wind direction measured by building top weather stations located in the National Mall. Although Dulles is located much further from the National Mall than Reagan National, there is better agreement between the wind speed and wind direction measured at Dulles and the weather stations in the National Mall. * When the winds are light (less than 3 ms-1 or 7 mph), there are significant differences in the wind directions reported at the various weather stations within the Mall. * Although the mean characteristics of the wind are similar at the various locations, significant, short-term differences are found when the time series are compared. These differences have important implications for the dispersion of airborne contaminants. In support of wintertime special events in the area of the National Mall, we recommend placing four additional meteorological instruments: three additional surface stations, one on the east bank of the Potomac River, one south of the Reflecting Pool (to better define the flow within the Mall), and a surface station near the Herbert C. Hoover Building; and wind-profiling instrument located along the southern edge of the National Mall to give measurements of the wind speed and direction as a function of height.« less

Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

2017-04-01

ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i.e. convective precipitation ratio, speed of steering winds, CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy - and solar radiation), alongside the rainfall forecasts themselves, to define the "weather types" that in turn define the expected sub-grid variability. The calibration and computational strategy intrinsic to the system will be illustrated. The quality of the global point rainfall forecasts is also illustrated by analysing recent case studies in which extreme totals and a greatly elevated flash flood risk could be foreseen some days in advance but especially by a longer-term verification that arises out of retrospective global point rainfall forecasting for 2016. The second phase, currently in development, is focussing on the relationships with other relevant geographical aspects, for instance, orography and coastlines. Preliminary results will be presented. These are promising but need further study to fully understand their impact on the spatial distribution of point rainfall totals.

Determination of the effect of wind velocity and direction changes on turbidity removal in rectangular sedimentation tanks.

PubMed

Khezri, Seyed Mostafa; Biati, Aida; Erfani, Zeynab

2012-01-01

In the present study, a pilot-scale sedimentation tank was used to determine the effect of wind velocity and direction on the removal efficiency of particles. For this purpose, a 1:20 scale pilot simulated according to Frude law. First, the actual efficiency of total suspended solids (TSS) removal was calculated in no wind condition. Then, the wind was blown in the same and the opposite directions of water flow. At each direction TSS removal was calculated at three different velocities from 2.5 to 7 m/s. Results showed that when the wind was in the opposite direction of water flow, TSS removal efficiency initially increased with the increase of wind velocity from 0 to 2.5 m/s, then it decreased with the increase of velocity to 5 m/s. This mainly might happen because the opposite direction of wind can increase particles' retention time in the sedimentation tank. However, higher wind velocities (i.e. 3.5 and 5.5 m/s) could not increase TSS removal efficiency. Thus, if sedimentation tanks are appropriately exposed to the wind, TSS removal efficiency increases by approximately 6%. Therefore, energy consumption will be reduced by a proper site selection for sedimentation tank unit in water and waste water treatment plants.

The effect of geographical and climatic properties on grass pollen and Phl p 5 allergen release.

PubMed

Alan, Şenol; Şahin, Aydan Acar; Sarışahin, Tuğba; Şahin, Serap; Kaplan, Ayşe; Pınar, Nur Münevver

2018-04-06

The Poaceae family, including grasses, comprises several cosmopolitan and allergenic species. The aim of this study was to determine the correlations between Poaceae pollen and Phl p 5 allergen concentrations in two cities with different geographical and climatic properties in Turkey. Pollen were collected from Burkard traps in Ankara and Zonguldak. Phl p 5 sampling was carried out between March and October in both 2015 and 2016 using a BGI900 Cascade High Volume Air Sampler (900 L/min.). The concentrations of Phl p 5 were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The annual sum of Poaceae pollen (pollen index) during 2015-2016 was 5454 in Ankara and 4142 in Zonguldak. The total Phl p 5 concentration was 1309 pg/m 3 in Zonguldak, whereas it was 8181 pg/m 3 in Ankara over 2 years. About 90% of the allergen was found in the fraction with particulate matter (PM) > 10 μm in both cities. It was found that the main meteorological parameter which affected pollen and Phl p 5 was temperature in both stations. Rainfall was also found to be important for Zonguldak, due to its climatic and geographic properties. Lastly, we suggest that the primary wind direction, which is from the south of Zonguldak, could have a 'drift effect' for allergens because of the airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which the allergen is released into the atmosphere. The wind direction may be an important factor in the distribution of allergen and pollen grains in stations, especially those with a hilly topography.

A novel approach to model dynamic flow interactions between storm sewer system and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tsang-Jung; Wang, Chia-Ho; Chen, Albert S.

2015-05-01

In this study, we developed a novel approach to simulate dynamic flow interactions between storm sewers and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas. The proposed approach couples the one-dimensional (1D) sewer flow model (SFM) and the two-dimensional (2D) overland flow model (OFM) with different techniques depending on the land cover type of the study areas. For roads, pavements, plazas, and so forth where rainfall becomes surface runoff before entering the sewer system, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated directly in the 2D OFM, and the runoff is drained to the sewer network via inlets, which is regarded as the input to 1D SFM. For green areas on which rainfall falls into the permeable ground surface and the generated direct runoff traverses terrain, the deduction rate is applied to the rainfall for reflecting the soil infiltration in the 2D OFM. For flat building roofs with drainage facilities allowing rainfall to drain directly from the roof to sewer networks, the rainfall-runoff process is simulated using the hydrological module in the 1D SFM where no rainfall is applied to these areas in the 2D OFM. The 1D SFM is used for hydraulic simulations in the sewer network. Where the flow in the drainage network exceeds its capacity, a surcharge occurs and water may spill onto the ground surface if the pressure head in a manhole exceeds the ground elevation. The overflow discharge from the sewer system is calculated by the 1D SFM and considered a point source in the 2D OFM. The overland flow will return into the sewer network when it reaches an inlet that connects to an un-surcharged manhole. In this case, the inlet is considered as a point sink in the 2D OFM and an inflow to a manhole in the 1D SFM. The proposed approach was compared to other five urban flood modelling techniques with four rainfall events that had previously recorded inundation areas. The merits and drawbacks of each modelling technique were compared and discussed. Based on the simulated results, the proposed approach was found to simulate floodings closer to the survey records than other approaches because the physical rainfall-runoff phenomena in urban environment were better reflected.

Design and laboratory testing of a new flow-through directional passive air sampler for ambient particulate matter.

PubMed

Lin, Chun; Solera Garcia, Maria Angeles; Timmis, Roger; Jones, Kevin C

2011-03-01

A new type of directional passive air sampler (DPAS) is described for collecting particulate matter (PM) in ambient air. The prototype sampler has a non-rotating circular sampling tray that is divided into covered angular channels, whose ends are open to winds from sectors covering the surrounding 360°. Wind-blown PM from different directions enters relevant wind-facing channels, and is retained there in collecting pools containing various sampling media. Information on source direction and type can be obtained by examining the distribution of PM between channels. Wind tunnel tests show that external wind velocities are at least halved over an extended area of the collecting pools, encouraging PM to settle from the air stream. Internal and external wind velocities are well-correlated over an external velocity range of 2.0-10.0 m s⁻¹, which suggests it may be possible to relate collected amounts of PM simply to ambient concentrations and wind velocities. Measurements of internal wind velocities in different channels show that velocities decrease from the upwind channel round to the downwind channel, so that the sampler effectively resolves wind directions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses were performed on a computer-generated model of the sampler for a range of external wind velocities; the results of these analyses were consistent with those from the wind tunnel. Further wind tunnel tests were undertaken using different artificial particulates in order to assess the collection performance of the sampler in practice. These tests confirmed that the sampler can resolve the directions of sources, by collecting particulates preferentially in source-facing channels.

The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-09-01

For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

Sampling Errors of SSM/I and TRMM Rainfall Averages: Comparison with Error Estimates from Surface Data and a Sample Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Kundu, Prasun K.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

The influence of winding direction of two-layer HTS DC cable on the critical current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyatkin, V. S.; Kashiwagi, K.; Ivanov, Y. V.; Otabe, E. S.; Yamaguchi, S.

2017-09-01

The design of twist pitch and direction of winding in multilayer HTS coaxial cable is important. For HTS AC transmitting cables, the main condition of twist pitch is the balance of inductances of each layer for providing the current balance between layers. In this work, the finite element method analysis for the coaxial cables with both same and opposite directions winding is used to calculate magnetic field distribution, and critical current of the cable is estimated. It was found that the critical current of the cable with same direction winding is about 10 percent higher than that in the case of the cable with the opposite direction winding.

Application of SeaWinds Scatterometer and TMI-SSM/I Rain Rates to Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert; Hou, Arthur; Reale, Oreste

2004-01-01

Results provided by two different assimilation methodologies involving data from passive and active space-borne microwave instruments are presented. The impact of the precipitation estimates produced by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) in a previously developed 1D variational continuous assimilation algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall is shown on two hurricane cases. Results on the impact of the SeaWinds scatterometer on the intensity and track forecast of a mid-Atlantic hurricane are also presented. This work is the outcome of a collaborative effort between NASA and NOAA and indicates the substantial improvement in tropical cyclone forecasting that can result from the assimilation of space-based data in global atmospheric models.

Effect of Wind Angle Direction on Carbon Monoxide (CO) Concentration Dispersion on Traffic Flow in Padang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachtiar, V. S.; Purnawan, P.; Afrianita, R.; Dahlia, N.

2018-01-01

This study aims to analyze the relationship between CO concentration and wind direction. Wind direction in this context is the wind angle to the road on the traffic flow in Padang City. Sampling of CO concentration was conducted for 9 days at 3 monitoring points (each 3-day point) representing the wind angle to the road (a) i.e. at Jend. A. Yani road (0 degrees), Andalas road (30 degrees) and Prof. Dr. Hamka road (60 degrees), using impinger and analyzed by spectrophotometer. The results of the research in the three monitoring sites showed that the concentration of CO ranged between 137.217 and 600.525 μg/Nm3. The highest and lowest concentrations respectively on Prof. Dr. Hamka road and Jend. A. Yani road. The sampling showed that CO concentrations will be decreased if wind direction is changed from perpendicular wind direction (a 90°) to a 60°, 30°, and 0° respectively by 64.62%, 37.77% and 27.09%. It can be concluded that the wind angle direction to the road affects the CO concentrations in the roadside.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the observed surface and subsurface temperature variations from early spring to summer during the years 2014 and 2015 over the Indo-Pacific region. This study highlights the importance of maintaining observing systems such as ARGO for accurate monsoon forecast.

Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

2018-01-01

Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt-Winters method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puah, Yan Jun; Huang, Yuk Feng; Chua, Kuan Chin; Lee, Teang Shui

2016-03-01

Climate change is receiving more attention from researchers as the frequency of occurrence of severe natural disasters is getting higher. Tropical countries like Malaysia have no distinct four seasons; rainfall has become the popular parameter to assess climate change. Conventional ways that determine rainfall trends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt-Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data and less than 10% missing data were selected. Goodness of fit of the forecasted models was measured. It was found that seasonal rainfall model forecasts are generally better than the monthly rainfall model forecasts. Three stations in the western region exhibited increasing trend. Rainfall in southern region showed fluctuation. Increasing trends were discovered at stations in the south-eastern region except the seasonal analysis at station 45253. Decreasing trend was found at station 2818110 in the east, while increasing trend was shown at station 44320 that represents the north-eastern region. The accuracies of both rainfall model forecasts were tested using the recorded data of years 2010-2012. Most of the forecasts are acceptable.

Rainfall simulators in hydrological and geomorphological sciences: benefits, applications and future research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iserloh, Thomas; Cerdà, Artemi; Fister, Wolfgang; Seitz, Steffen; Keesstra, Saskia; Green, Daniel; Gabriels, Donald

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulators are used extensively within the hydrological and geomorphological sciences and provide a useful investigative tool to understand many processes, such as: (i) plot-scale runoff, infiltration and erosion; (ii) irrigation and crop management, and; (iii) investigations into flooding within a laboratory setting. Although natural rainfall is desirable as it represents actual conditions in a given geographic location, data acquisition relying on natural rainfall is often hindered by its unpredictable nature. Furthermore, rainfall characteristics such as the intensity, duration, drop size distribution and kinetic energy cannot be spatially or temporally regulated or repeated between experimentation. Rainfall simulators provide a suitable method to overcome the issues associated with depending on potentially erratic and unpredictable natural rainfall as they allow: (i) multiple measurements to be taken quickly without waiting for suitable natural rainfall conditions; (ii) the simulation of spatially and/or temporally controlled rainfall patterns over a given plot area, and; (iii) the creation of a closed environment, allowing simplified measurement of input and output conditions. There is no standardisation of rainfall simulation and as such, rainfall simulators differ in their design, rainfall characteristics and research application. Although this impedes drawing meaningful comparisons between studies, this allows researchers to create a bespoke and tailored rainfall simulator for the specific research application. This paper summarises the rainfall simulators used in European research institutions (Universities of Trier, Valencia, Basel, Tuebingen, Wageningen, Loughborough and Ghent) to investigate a number of hydrological and geomorphological issues and includes details on the design specifications (such as the extent and characteristics of simulated rainfall), as well as a discussion of the purpose and application of the rainfall simulator.

Post-processing method for wind speed ensemble forecast using wind speed and direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofie Eide, Siri; Bjørnar Bremnes, John; Steinsland, Ingelin

2017-04-01

Statistical methods are widely applied to enhance the quality of both deterministic and ensemble NWP forecasts. In many situations, like wind speed forecasting, most of the predictive information is contained in one variable in the NWP models. However, in statistical calibration of deterministic forecasts it is often seen that including more variables can further improve forecast skill. For ensembles this is rarely taken advantage of, mainly due to that it is generally not straightforward how to include multiple variables. In this study, it is demonstrated how multiple variables can be included in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by using a flexible regression method for estimating the conditional means. The method is applied to wind speed forecasting at 204 Norwegian stations based on wind speed and direction forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble system. At about 85 % of the sites the ensemble forecasts were improved in terms of CRPS by adding wind direction as predictor compared to only using wind speed. On average the improvements were about 5 %, but mainly for moderate to strong wind situations. For weak wind speeds adding wind direction had more or less neutral impact.

Water Budget for the Island of Kauai, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shade, Patricia J.

1995-01-01

A geographic information system model was created to calculate a monthly water budget for the island of Kauai. Ground-water recharge is the residual component of a monthly water budget calculated using long-term average rainfall, streamflow, and pan-evaporation data, applied irrigation-water estimates, and soil characteristics. The water-budget components are defined seasonally, through the use of the monthly water budget, and spatially by aquifer-system areas, through the use of the geographic information system model. The mean annual islandwide water-budget totals are 2,720 Mgal/d for rainfall plus irrigation; 1,157 Mgal/d for direct runoff; 911 Mgal/d for actual evapotranspiration; and 652 Mgal/d for ground-water recharge. Direct runoff is 43 percent, actual evapotranspiration is 33 percent, and ground-water recharge is 24 percent of rainfall plus irrigation. Ground-water recharge in the natural land-use areas is spatially distributed in a pattern similar to the rainfall distribution. Distinct seasonal variations in the water-budget components are apparent from the monthly water-budget calculations. Rainfall and ground-water recharge peak during the wet winter months with highs in January of 3,698 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) and 981 Mgal/d, respectively; a slight peak in July and August relative to June and September is caused by increased orographic rainfall. Recharge is lowest in June (454 Mgal/d) and November (461 Mgal/d).

A Dynamic Optimization Technique for Siting the NASA-Clark Atlanta Urban Rain Gauge Network (NCURN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Taylor, Layi

2003-01-01

NASA satellites and ground instruments have indicated that cities like Atlanta, Georgia may create or alter rainfall. Scientists speculate that the urban heat island caused by man-made surfaces in cities impact the heat and wind patterns that form clouds and rainfall. However, more conclusive evidence is required to substantiate findings from satellites. NASA, along with scientists at Clark Atlanta University, are implementing a dense, urban rain gauge network in the metropolitan Atlanta area to support a satellite validation program called Studies of PRecipitation Anomalies from Widespread Urban Landuse (SPRAWL). SPRAWL will be conducted during the summer of 2003 to further identify and understand the impact of urban Atlanta on precipitation variability. The paper provides an. overview of SPRAWL, which represents one of the more comprehensive efforts in recent years to focus exclusively on urban-impacted rainfall. The paper also introduces a novel technique for deploying rain gauges for SPRAWL. The deployment of the dense Atlanta network is unique because it utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Decision Support Systems (DSS) to optimize deployment of the rain gauges. These computer aided systems consider access to roads, drainage systems, tree cover, and other factors in guiding the deployment of the gauge network. GIS and DSS also provide decision-makers with additional resources and flexibility to make informed decisions while considering numerous factors. Also, the new Atlanta network and SPRAWL provide a unique opportunity to merge the high-resolution, urban rain gauge network with satellite-derived rainfall products to understand how cities are changing rainfall patterns, and possibly climate.

Borneo vortex and mesoscale convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, S.; Koh, T.-Y.; Teo, C.-K.

2014-05-01

We have investigated how the Borneo vortex develops over the equatorial South China Sea under cold surge conditions in December during the Asian winter monsoon. Composite analysis using reanalysis and satellite data sets has revealed that absolute vorticity and water vapour are transported by strong cold surges from upstream of the South China Sea to around the Equator. Rainfall is correspondingly enhanced over the equatorial South China Sea. A semi-idealized experiment reproduced the Borneo vortex over the equatorial South China Sea during a "perpetual" cold surge. The Borneo vortex is manifested as a meso-α cyclone with a comma-shaped rainband in the northeast sector of the cyclone. Vorticity budget analysis showed that the growth/maintenance of the meso-α cyclone was achieved mainly by the vortex stretching. This vortex stretching is due to the upward motion forced by the latent heat release around the cyclone centre. The comma-shaped rainband consists of clusters of meso-β-scale rainfall cells. The intense rainfall in the comma head (comma tail) is generated by the confluence of the warmer and wetter cyclonic easterly flow (cyclonic southeasterly flow) and the cooler and drier northeasterly surge in the northwestern (northeastern) sector of the cyclone. Intense upward motion and heavy rainfall resulted due to the low-level convergence and the favourable thermodynamic profile at the confluence zone. In particular, the convergence in the northwestern sector is responsible for maintenance of the meso-α cyclone system. At both meso-α and meso-β scales, the convergence is ultimately caused by the deviatoric strain in the confluence wind pattern but is significantly self-enhanced by the nonlinear dynamics.

Midweek Increase in U.S. Summer Rain and Storm Heights, Suggests Air Pollution Invigorates Rainstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Yoo, Jung-Moon; Hahnenberger, Maura

2007-01-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.

Direct leaf wetness measurements and its numerical analysis using a multi-layer atmosphere-soil-vegetation model at a grassland site in pre-alpine region in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katata, Genki; Held, Andreas; Mauder, Matthias

2014-05-01

The wetness of plant leaf surfaces (leaf wetness) is important in meteorological, agricultural, and environmental studies including plant disease management and the deposition process of atmospheric trace gases and particles. Although many models have been developed to predict leaf wetness, wetness data directly measured at the leaf surface for model validations are still limited. In the present study, the leaf wetness was monitored using seven electrical sensors directly clipped to living leaf surfaces of thin and broad-leaved grasses. The measurements were carried out at the pre-alpine grassland site in TERestrial ENvironmental Observatories (TERENO) networks in Germany from September 20 to November 8, 2013. Numerical simulations of a multi-layer atmosphere-SOiL-VEGetation model (SOLVEG) developed by the authors were carried out for analyzing the data. For numerical simulations, the additional routine meteorological data of wind speed, air temperature and humidity, radiation, rainfall, long-wave radiative surface temperature, surface fluxes, ceilometer backscatter, and canopy or snow depth were used. The model reproduced well the observed leaf wetness, net radiation, momentum and heat, water vapor, and CO2 fluxes, surface temperature, and soil temperature and moisture. In rain-free days, a typical diurnal cycle as a decrease and increase during the day- and night-time, respectively, was observed in leaf wetness data. The high wetness level was always monitored under rain, fog, and snowcover conditions. Leaf wetness was also often high in the early morning due to thawing of leaf surface water frozen during a cold night. In general, leaf wetness was well correlated with relative humidity (RH) in condensation process, while it rather depended on wind speed in evaporation process. The comparisons in RH-wetness relations between leaf characteristics showed that broad-leaved grasses tended to be wetter than thin grasses.

An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, Kevin

2012-01-01

Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Kim, Seung-Bum; Lee, Tong; Song, Y. Tony; Tang, Wen-Qing; Atlas, Robert

2004-01-01

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

2010 weather and aeolian sand-transport data from the Colorado River corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dealy, Timothy P.; East, Amy E.; Fairley, Helen C.

2014-01-01

Measurements of weather parameters and aeolian sand transport were made in 2010 near selected archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon, Arizona. Data collected in 2010 indicate event- and seasonal-scale variations in rainfall, wind, temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Differences in weather patterns between 2009 and 2010 included a slightly later spring windy season, greater spring precipitation and annual rainfall totals, and a later onset and length of the reduced diurnal barometric-pressure fluctuations commonly associated with summer monsoon conditions. The increase in spring precipitation was consistent with the 2010 spring El Niño conditions compared to the 2009 spring La Niña conditions, whereas the subsequent transition to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral phase appeared to delay the reduction in diurnal barometric fluctuations.

Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2014-01-01

For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

Particle transport patterns of short-distance soil erosion by wind-driven rain, rain and wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; de Lima, João L. M. P.; Ries, Johannes B.

2015-04-01

Short distance erosion of soil surface material is one of the big question marks in soil erosion studies. The exact measurement of short-distance transported soil particles, prior to the occurrence of overland flow, is a challenge to soil erosion science due to the particular requirements of the experimental setup and test procedure. To approach a quantification of amount and distance of each type of transport, we applied an especially developed multiple-gutter system installed inside the Trier Portable Wind and Rainfall Simulator (PWRS). We measured the amount and travel distance of soil particles detached and transported by raindrops (splash), wind-driven rain (splash-saltation and splash-drift) and wind (saltation). The test setup included three different erosion agents (rain/ wind-driven rain/ wind), two substrates (sandy/ loamy), three surface structures (grain roughness/ rills lengthwise/ rills transversal) and three slope angles (0°/+7°/-7°). The results present detailed transport patterns of the three erosion agents under the varying soil and surface conditions up to a distance of 1.6 m. Under the applied rain intensity and wind velocity, wind-driven rain splash generates the highest erosion. The erodibility and travel distance of the two substrates depend on the erosion agent. The total erosion is slightly higher for the slope angle -7° (downslope), but for wind-driven rain splash, the inclination is not a relevant factor. The effect of surface structures (rills) changes with traveling distance. The wind driven rain splash generates a much higher amount of erosion and a further travel distance of the particles due to the combined action of wind and rain. The wind-driven rain factor appears to be much more significant than the other factors. The study highlights the effects of different erosion agents and surface parameters on short-distance particle transport and the powerful impact of wind-driven rain on soil erosion.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Summer Precipitation in Mexico under the Influence of the MJO, with Emphasis on the Bimodal Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigón, J.; Romero-Centeno, R.; Barrett, B.; Ordoñez-Perez, P.

2017-12-01

In many regions of Mexico, precipitation occurs in a very well defined annual cycle with peaks in May-June and September-October and a relative minimum in the middle of the rainy season known as the midsummer drought (MSD). The MJO is the most important mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, and, although some studies have shown its evident influence on summer precipitation in Mexico, its role in modulating the bimodal pattern of the summer precipitation cycle is still an open question. The spatio-temporal variability of summer precipitation in Mexico is analyzed through composite analysis according to the phases of the MJO, using the very high resolution CHIRPS precipitation data base and gridded data from the CFSR reanalysis to analyzing the MJO influence on the atmospheric circulation over Mexico and its adjacent basins. In general, during MJO phases 8-2 (4-6) rainfall is above-normal (below-normal), although, in some cases, the summer rainfall patterns during the same phase present considerable differences. The atmospheric circulation shows low (high) troposphere southwesterly (northeasterly) wind anomalies in southern Mexico under wetter conditions compared with climatological patterns, while the inverse pattern is observed under drier conditions. Composite anomalies of several variables also agreed well with those rainfall anomalies. Finally, a MJO complete cycle that reinforces (weakens) the bimodal pattern of summer rainfall in Mexico was found.

Directional Wave Spectra Observed During Intense Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C. O.; Potter, H.; Lund, B.; Tamura, H.; Graber, H. C.

2018-02-01

Two deep-sea moorings were deployed 780 km off the coast of southern Taiwan for 4-5 months during the 2010 typhoon season. Directional wave spectra, wind speed and direction, and momentum fluxes were recorded on two Extreme Air-Sea Interaction buoys during the close passage of Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu and three tropical cyclones (TCs): Typhoon Fanapi, Super Typhoon Megi, and Typhoon Chaba. Conditions sampled include significant wave heights up to 11 m and wind speeds up to 26 m s-1. Details varied for large-scale spectral structure in frequency and direction but were mostly bimodal. The modes were generally composed of a swell system emanating from the most intense storm region and local wind-seas. The peak systems were consistently young, meaning actively forced by winds, when the storms were close. During the peaks of the most intense passages—Chaba at the northern mooring and Megi at the southern—the bimodal seas coalesced. During Chaba, the swell and wind-sea coupling directed the high frequency waves and the wind stress away from the wind direction. A spectral wave model was able reproduce many of the macrofeatures of the directional spectra.

Determination of rainfall and condensational heating in the South Pacific convergence zone during FGGE SOP-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.

1984-01-01

The role of cloud related diabatic processes in maintaining the structure of the South Pacific Convergence Zone is discussed. The method chosen to evaluate the condensational heating is a diagnostic cumulus mass flux technique which uses GOES digital IR data to characterize the cloud population. This method requires as input an estimate of time/area mean rainfall rate over the area in question. Since direct observation of rainfall in the South Pacific is not feasible, a technique using GOES IR data is being developed to estimate rainfall amounts for a 2.5 degree grid at 12h intervals.

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government through its AHRF program.

Estimating the Risk of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Along the United States Gulf of Mexico Coastline Using Different Statistical Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trepanier, J. C.; Ellis, K.; Jagger, T.; Needham, H.; Yuan, J.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones, with their high wind speeds, high rainfall totals and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting off shore economic activities. Events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012, can be physically different but still provide detrimental effects due to their locations of influence. There are a wide variety of ways to estimate the risk of occurrence of extreme tropical cyclones. Here, the combined risk of tropical cyclone storm surge and nearshore wind speed using a statistical copula is provided for 22 Gulf of Mexico coastal cities. Of the cities considered, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 m s-1 nearshore wind speed and a three meter surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). Additionally, a multivariate regression model is provided estimating the compound effects of tropical cyclone tracks, landfall central pressure, the amount of accumulated precipitation, and storm surge for five locations around Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana. It is shown the most intense tropical cyclones typically approach from the south and a small change in the amount of rainfall or landfall central pressure leads to a large change in the final storm surge depth. Data are used from the National Hurricane Center, U-Surge, SURGEDAT, and Cooperative Observer Program. The differences in the two statistical approaches are discussed, along with the advantages and limitations to each. The goal of combining the results of the two studies is to gain a better understanding of the most appropriate risk estimation technique for a given area.

Synoptic thermodynamic and dynamic patterns associated with Quitandinha River flooding events in Petropolis, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Fabricio Polifke; Justi da Silva, Maria Gertrudes Alvarez; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa; Pires, Gisele Dornelles; Sampaio, Rafael João; de Araújo, Afonso Augusto Magalhães

2018-05-01

Natural disasters are the result of extreme or intense natural phenomena that cause severe impacts on society. These impacts can be mitigated through preventive measures that can be aided by better knowledge of extreme phenomena and monitoring of forecasting and alert systems. The city of Petropolis (in a mountainous region of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) is prone to heavy rain events, often leading to River overflows, landslides, and loss of life. In that context, this work endeavored to characterize the thermodynamic and dynamic synoptic patterns that trigger heavy rainfall episodes and the corresponding flooding of Quitandinha River. More specifically, we reviewed events from the time period between January 2013 and December 2014 using reanalysis data. We expect that the overall description obtained of synoptic patterns should provide adequate qualitative aid to the decision-making processes involved in operational forecasting procedures. We noticed that flooding events were related to the presence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), frontal systems (FS), and convective storms (CS). These systems showed a similar behavior on high-frequency wind components, notably with respect to northwest winds before precipitation and to a strong southwest wind component during rainfall events. Clustering analyses indicated that the main component for precipitation formation with regard to CS systems comes from daytime heating, with the dynamic component presenting greater efficiency for the FS configurations. The SACZ events were influenced by moisture availability along the vertical column of the atmosphere and also due to dynamic components of precipitation efficiency and daytime heating, the latter related to the continuous transport of moisture from the Amazon region and South Atlantic Ocean towards Rio de Janeiro state.

Significant Features of Warm Season Water Vapor Flux Related to Heavy Rainfall and Draught in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Koji; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Jinno, Kenji

2009-11-01

In this study, our objective is to reveal complicated relationships between spatial water vapor inflow patterns and heavy rainfall activities in Kyushu located in the western part of Japan, using the outcomes of pattern recognition of water vapor inflow, based on the Self-Organizing Map. Consequently, it could be confirmed that water vapor inflow patterns control the distribution and the frequency of heavy rainfall depending on the direction of their fluxes and the intensity of Precipitable water. Historically serious flood disasters in South Kyushu in 1993 were characterized by high frequency of the water vapor inflow patterns linking to heavy rainfall. On the other hand, severe draught in 1994 was characterized by inactive frontal activity that do not related to heavy rainfall.

Effects of wind direction on coarse and fine particulate matter concentrations in southeast Kansas.

PubMed

Guerra, Sergio A; Lane, Dennis D; Marotz, Glen A; Carter, Ray E; Hohl, Carrie M; Baldauf, Richard W

2006-11-01

Field data for coarse particulate matter ([PM] PM10) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were collected at selected sites in Southeast Kansas from March 1999 to October 2000, using portable MiniVol particulate samplers. The purpose was to assess the influence on air quality of four industrial facilities that burn hazardous waste in the area located in the communities of Chanute, Independence, Fredonia, and Coffeyville. Both spatial and temporal variation were observed in the data. Variation because of sampling site was found to be statistically significant for PM10 but not for PM2.5. PM10 concentrations were typically slightly higher at sites located within the four study communities than at background sites. Sampling sites were located north and south of the four targeted sources to provide upwind and downwind monitoring pairs. No statistically significant differences were found between upwind and downwind samples for either PM10 or PM2.5, indicating that the targeted sources did not contribute significantly to PM concentrations. Wind direction can frequently contribute to temporal variation in air pollutant concentrations and was investigated in this study. Sampling days were divided into four classifications: predominantly south winds, predominantly north winds, calm/variable winds, and winds from other directions. The effect of wind direction was found to be statistically significant for both PM10 and PM2.5. For both size ranges, PM concentrations were typically highest on days with predominantly south winds; days with calm/variable winds generally produced higher concentrations than did those with predominantly north winds or those with winds from "other" directions. The significant effect of wind direction suggests that regional sources may exert a large influence on PM concentrations in the area.

Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F

2013-06-01

Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase.

Comparing wind directions inferred from Martian dust devil tracks analysis with those predicted by the Mars Climate Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Statella, T.; Pina, P.; Silva, E. A.; Nervis Frigeri, Ary Vinicius; Neto, Frederico Gallon

2016-10-01

We have calculated the prevailing dust devil tracks direction as a means of verifying the Mars Climate Database (MCD) predicted wind directions accuracy. For that purpose we have applied an automatic method based on morphological openings for inferring the prevailing tracks direction in a dataset comprising 200 Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) Narrow Angle (NA) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images of the Martian surface, depicting regions in the Aeolis, Eridania, Noachis, Argyre and Hellas quadrangles. The prevailing local wind directions were calculated from the MCD predicted speeds for the WE and SN wind components. The results showed that the MCD may not be able to predict accurately the locally dominant wind direction near the surface. In adittion, we confirm that the surface wind stress alone cannot produce dust lifting in the studied sites, since it never exceeds the threshold value of 0.0225 Nm-2 in the MCD.

Validating precision estimates in horizontal wind measurements from a Doppler lidar

DOE PAGES

Newsom, Rob K.; Brewer, W. Alan; Wilczak, James M.; ...

2017-03-30

Results from a recent field campaign are used to assess the accuracy of wind speed and direction precision estimates produced by a Doppler lidar wind retrieval algorithm. The algorithm, which is based on the traditional velocity-azimuth-display (VAD) technique, estimates the wind speed and direction measurement precision using standard error propagation techniques, assuming the input data (i.e., radial velocities) to be contaminated by random, zero-mean, errors. For this study, the lidar was configured to execute an 8-beam plan-position-indicator (PPI) scan once every 12 min during the 6-week deployment period. Several wind retrieval trials were conducted using different schemes for estimating themore » precision in the radial velocity measurements. Here, the resulting wind speed and direction precision estimates were compared to differences in wind speed and direction between the VAD algorithm and sonic anemometer measurements taken on a nearby 300 m tower.« less

Wind-driven rain and its implications for natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; de Lima, João L. M. P.; Fister, Wolfgang; Ries, Johannes B.

2017-04-01

Prediction and risk assessment of hydrological extremes are great challenges. Following climate predictions, frequent and violent rainstorms will become a new hazard to several regions in the medium term. Particularly agricultural soils will be severely threatened due to the combined action of heavy rainfall and accompanying winds on bare soil surfaces. Basing on the general underestimation of the effect of wind on rain erosion, conventional soil erosion measurements and modeling approaches lack related information to adequately calculate its impact. The presented experimental-empirical approach shows the powerful impact of wind on the erosive potential of rain. The tested soils had properties that characterise three different environments 1. Silty loam of semi-arid Mediterranean dryfarming and fallow, 2. clayey loam of humid agricultural sites and 3. cohesionless sandy substrates as found at coasts, dune fields and drift-sand areas. Erosion was found to increase by a factor of 1.3 to 7.1, depending on site characteristics. Complementary tests with a laboratory procedure were used to quantify explicitly the effect of wind on raindrop erosion as well as the influence of substrate, surface structure and slope on particle displacement. These tests confirmed the impact of wind-driven rain on total erosion rates to be of great importance when compared to all other tested factors. To successfully adapt soil erosion models to near-future challenges of climate change induced rain storms, wind-driven rain is supposed to be introduced into the hazard management agenda.

Huge Super Typhoon Meranti Over Taiwan Spotted by NASA MISR

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-09-14

On Sept. 14, 2016, the eye of Super Typhoon Meranti passed just south of Taiwan. The enormous storm, classified as a Category 5 typhoon at the time, still caused much disruption on the island. Nearly 500,000 homes lost power, schools were closed, and most flights were cancelled. Maximum wind speeds were 180 miles per hour (290 kilometers per hour) as the storm passed, and more than 25 inches (64 centimeters) of rain fell on some areas of the country. However, the storm did not pass over Taiwan's mountainous landscape, which would have weakened it. That means it will remain strong as it heads toward mainland China, unlike Super Typhoon Nepartak in July, which weakened from a Category 5 typhoon to a tropical storm after crossing Taiwan. Meranti is currently maintaining Category 4 strength and is expected to make landfall near Shantou, Guangdong province, on Thursday, September 15. The coast of China is more vulnerable to storm surges than Taiwan due to shallower coastal waters and recent rainfall. There is risk of substantial flooding. On Sept. 14, at 10:45 AM local time, the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite passed directly over the eye of Meranti. On the left is a natural-color image from MISR's nadir-pointing camera. At this time the eye of Meranti was just off the southern tip of Taiwan, which is invisible under the clouds. The coast of China is barely visible through the clouds in the upper left portion of the image. The small eye and dense high clouds are both markers of the storm's power. MISR's nine cameras, each pointed at a different angle, can be used to determine the heights of clouds based on geometric shifts among the nine images. The middle panel shows these stereo-derived cloud top heights superimposed on the natural color image. The clouds of the central core of Typhoon Meranti have heights ranging between 16 and 20 kilometers (10 and 12.5 miles). It takes about seven minutes for all nine cameras to image the same location on the ground, and wind velocity can be calculated from the motion of the clouds over this seven-minute period. The right panel plots these wind velocities as vectors which indicate both direction and speed. The length of the arrow corresponds to the wind speed, which can be compared to the reference 20 meters per second (45 miles per hour) arrow in the key. Hurricanes and typhoons in the Northern Hemisphere rotate counterclockwise due to the Earth's rotation, but these wind vectors mainly show motion outward from the eye at the storm tops. This is due to the fact that hurricanes draw in moist air at low altitudes, which then flows upwards and outwards around the eye reversing direction. These data were acquired during Terra orbit 88865. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA17309

Effects of Raindrop Shape Parameter on the Simulation of Plum Rains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, H.; Zhou, L.; Li, X.; Huang, X.; Guo, W.

2017-12-01

The raindrop shape parameter of particle distribution is generally set as constant in a Double-moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme (DBMS) using Gama distribution function though which suggest huge differences in time and space according to observations. Based on Milbrandt 2-mon(MY) DBMS, four cases during Plum Rains season are simulated coupled with four empirical relationships between shape parameter (μr) and slope parameter of raindrop which have been concluded from observations of raindrop distributions. The analysis of model results suggest that μr have some influences on rainfall. Introducing the diagnostic formulas of μr may have some improvement on systematic biases of 24h accumulated rainfall and show some correction ability on local characteristics of rainfall distribution. Besides,the tendency to improve strong rainfall could be sensitive to μr. With the improvement of the diagnosis of μr using the empirically diagnostic formulas, μr increases generally in the middle- and lower-troposphere and decreases with the stronger rainfall. Its conclued that, the decline in raindrop water content and the increased raindrop mass-weighted average terminal velocity directly related to μr are the direct reasons of variations in the precipitation.On the other side, the environmental conditions including relative humidity and dynamical parameters are the key indirectly causes which has close relationships with the changes in cloud particles and rainfall distributions.Furthermore,the differences in the scale of improvement between the weak and heavy rainfall mainly come from the distinctions of response features about their variable fields respectively. The extent of variation in the features of cloud particles in warm clouds of heavy rainfall differs greatly from that of weak rainfall, though they share the same trend of variation. On the conditions of weak rainfall, the response of physical characteristics to μr performed consistent trends and some linear features. However, environmental conditions of relative humidity and dynamical parameters perform strong and vertically deep adjustments in the heavy precipitation with vigorous cloud systems. In this case, the microphysical processes and environmental conditions experience complex interactions with each other and no significant laws could be concluded.

Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

2011-08-01

The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

Flight directions of passerine migrants in daylight and darkness: A radar and direct visual study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gauthreaux, S. A., Jr.

1972-01-01

The application of radar and visual techniques to determine the migratory habits of passerine birds during daylight and darkness is discussed. The effects of wind on the direction of migration are examined. Scatter diagrams of daytime and nocturnal migration track directions correlated with wind direction are presented. It is concluded that migratory birds will fly at altitudes where wind direction and migratory direction are nearly the same. The effects of cloud cover and solar obscuration are considered negligible.

Analysis of the Viking Lander 1 surface wind vector for sols 45 to 375

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leovy, C. B.

1984-01-01

The Viking Lander 1 wind sensor data during the period between sols 45 and 375 were corrected. During this period, the heating element of the quadrant sensor which provided the primary signal used for determining wind direction had failed, but both hot film wind sensors were functioning normally. The wind speed and direction corrections are explained.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north-south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and the gulf of Guinea in northern summer which contribute to create a northward (southward) transequatorial anomaly gradient in sea level pressure over West Africa.

Wind-waves interactions in the Gulf of Eilat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shani-Zerbib, Almog; Liberzon, Dan; T-SAIL Team

2017-11-01

The Gulf of Eilat, at the southern tip of Israel, with its elongated rectangular shape and unique diurnal wind pattern is an appealing location for wind-waves interactions research. Results of experimental work will be reported analyzing a continuous, 50 hour long, data. Using a combined array of wind and waves sensing instruments, the wave field statistics and its response to variations of wind forcing were investigated. Correlations between diurnal fluctuations in wind magnitude and direction and the wave field response will be discussed. The directional spread of waves' energy, as estimated by the Wavelet Directional Method, showed a strong response to small variations in wind flow direction attributed to the unique topography of the gulf surroundings and its bathymetry. Influenced by relatively strong winds during the light hours, the wave field was dominated by a significant amount of breakings that are well pronounced in the saturation range of waves spectra. Temporal growth and decay behavior of the waves during the morning and evening wind transition periods was examined. Sea state induced roughness, as experienced by the wind flow turbulent boundary layer, is examined in view of the critical layer theory. Israel Science Foundation Grant # 1521/15.

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Gu, Guojun

2003-01-01

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Prescribed burning weather in Minnesota.

Treesearch

Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

Describes the weather patterns in northern Minnesota as related to prescribed burning. The prevailing wind direction, average wind speed, most persistent wind direction, and average Buildup Index are considered in making recommendations.

Predicting rainfall erosivity by momentum and kinetic energy in Mediterranean environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carollo, Francesco G.; Ferro, Vito; Serio, Maria A.

2018-05-01

Rainfall erosivity is an index that describes the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion and it is used around the world for assessing and predicting soil loss on agricultural lands. Erosivity can be represented in terms of both rainfall momentum and kinetic energy, both calculated per unit time and area. Contrasting results on the representativeness of these two variables are available: some authors stated that momentum and kinetic energy are practically interchangeable in soil loss estimation while other found that kinetic energy is the most suitable expression of rainfall erosivity. The direct and continuous measurements of momentum and kinetic energy by a disdrometer allow also to establish a relationship with rainfall intensity at the study site. At first in this paper a comparison between the momentum-rainfall intensity relationships measured at Palermo and El Teularet by an optical disdrometer is presented. For a fixed rainfall intensity the measurements showed that the rainfall momentum values measured at the two experimental sites are not coincident. However both datasets presented a threshold value of rainfall intensity over which the rainfall momentum assumes a quasi-constant value. Then the reliability of a theoretically deduced relationship, linking momentum, rainfall intensity and median volume diameter, is positively verified using measured raindrop size distributions. An analysis to assess which variable, momentum or kinetic energy per unit area and time, is the best predictor of erosivity in Italy and Spain was also carried out. This investigation highlighted that the rainfall kinetic energy per unit area and time can be substituted by rainfall momentum as index for estimating the rainfall erosivity, and this result does not depend on the site where precipitation occurs. Finally, rainfall intensity measurements and soil loss data collected from the bare plots equipped at Sparacia experimental area were used to verify the reliability of some rainfall erosivity indices and their ability to distinguish the type of involved soil erosion processes.

WRF simulation of a severe hailstorm over Baramati: a study into the space-time evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murthy, B. S.; Latha, R.; Madhuparna, H.

2018-04-01

Space-time evolution of a severe hailstorm occurred over the western India as revealed by WRF-ARW simulations are presented. We simulated a specific event centered over Baramati (18.15°N, 74.58°E, 537 m AMSL) on March 9, 2014. A physical mechanism, proposed as a conceptual model, signifies the role of multiple convective cells organizing through outflows leading to a cold frontal type flow, in the presence of a low over the northern Arabian Sea, propagates from NW to SE triggering deep convection and precipitation. A `U' shaped cold pool encircled by a converging boundary forms to the north of Baramati due to precipitation behind the moisture convergence line with strong updrafts ( 15 ms-1) leading to convective clouds extending up to 8 km in a narrow region of 30 km. The outflows from the convective clouds merge with the opposing southerly or southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea and southerly or southeasterly winds from the Bay of Bengal resulting in moisture convergence (maximum 80 × 10-3 g kg-1 s-1). The vertical profile of the area-averaged moisture convergence over the cold pool shows strong convergence above 850 hPa and divergence near the surface indicating elevated convection. Radar reflectivity (50-60 dBZ) and vertical component of vorticity maximum ( 0.01-0.14 s-1) are observed along the convergence zone. Stratiform clouds ahead of the squall line and parallel wind flow at 850 hPa and nearly perpendicular flow at higher levels relative to squall line as evidenced by relatively low and wide-spread reflectivity suggests that organizational mode of squall line may be categorized as `Mixed Mode' type where northern part can be a parallel stratiform while the southern part resembles with a leading stratiform. Simulated rainfall (grid scale 27 km) leads the observed rainfall by 1 h while its magnitude is 2 times of the observed rainfall (grid scale 100 km) derived from Kalpana-1. Thus, this study indicates that under synoptically favorable conditions, WRF-ARW could simulate thunderstorm evolution reasonably well although there is some space-time error which might, perhaps, be the reason for lower CAPE (observed by upper air sounding) on the simulation day.

Environmental factors and flow paths related to Escherichia coli concentrations at two beaches on Lake St. Clair, Michigan, 2002–2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Shively, Dawn; Whitman, Richard L.; Haack, Sheridan K.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2008-01-01

Regression analyses and hydrodynamic modeling were used to identify environmental factors and flow paths associated with Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations at Memorial and Metropolitan Beaches on Lake St. Clair in Macomb County, Mich. Lake St. Clair is part of the binational waterway between the United States and Canada that connects Lake Huron with Lake Erie in the Great Lakes Basin. Linear regression, regression-tree, and logistic regression models were developed from E. coli concentration and ancillary environmental data. Linear regression models on log10 E. coli concentrations indicated that rainfall prior to sampling, water temperature, and turbidity were positively associated with bacteria concentrations at both beaches. Flow from Clinton River, changes in water levels, wind conditions, and log10 E. coli concentrations 2 days before or after the target bacteria concentrations were statistically significant at one or both beaches. In addition, various interaction terms were significant at Memorial Beach. Linear regression models for both beaches explained only about 30 percent of the variability in log10 E. coli concentrations. Regression-tree models were developed from data from both Memorial and Metropolitan Beaches but were found to have limited predictive capability in this study. The results indicate that too few observations were available to develop reliable regression-tree models. Linear logistic models were developed to estimate the probability of E. coli concentrations exceeding 300 most probable number (MPN) per 100 milliliters (mL). Rainfall amounts before bacteria sampling were positively associated with exceedance probabilities at both beaches. Flow of Clinton River, turbidity, and log10 E. coli concentrations measured before or after the target E. coli measurements were related to exceedances at one or both beaches. The linear logistic models were effective in estimating bacteria exceedances at both beaches. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine cut points for maximizing the true positive rate prediction while minimizing the false positive rate. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate horizontal current patterns on Lake St. Clair in response to wind, flow, and water-level conditions at model boundaries. Simulated velocity fields were used to track hypothetical massless particles backward in time from the beaches along flow paths toward source areas. Reverse particle tracking for idealized steady-state conditions shows changes in expected flow paths and traveltimes with wind speeds and directions from 24 sectors. The results indicate that three to four sets of contiguous wind sectors have similar effects on flow paths in the vicinity of the beaches. In addition, reverse particle tracking was used for transient conditions to identify expected flow paths for 10 E. coli sampling events in 2004. These results demonstrate the ability to track hypothetical particles from the beaches, backward in time, to likely source areas. This ability, coupled with a greater frequency of bacteria sampling, may provide insight into changes in bacteria concentrations between source and sink areas.

Normalizing rainfall/debris-flow thresholds along the U.S. Pacific coast for long-term variations in precipitation climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Raymond C.

1997-01-01

Broad-scale variations in long-term precipitation climate may influence rainfall/debris-flow threshold values along the U.S. Pacific coast, where both the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the number of rainfall days (#RDs) are controlled by topography, distance from the coastline, and geographic latitude. Previous authors have proposed that rainfall thresholds are directly proportional to MAP, but this appears to hold only within limited areas (< 1?? latitude), where rainfall frequency (#RDs) is nearly constant. MAP-normalized thresholds underestimate the critical rainfall when applied to areas to the south, where the #RDs decrease, and overestimate threshold rainfall when applied to areas to the north, where the #RDs increase. For normalization between climates where both MAP and #RDs vary significantly, thresholds may best be described as multiples of the rainy-day normal, RDN = MAP/#RDs. Using data from several storms that triggered significant debris-flow activity in southern California, the San Francisco Bay region, and the Pacific Northwest, peak 24-hour rainfalls were plotted against RDN values, displaying a linear relationship with a lower bound at about 14 RDN. RDN ratios in this range may provide a threshold for broad-scale regional forecasting of debris-flow activity.

Idealized Cloud-System Resolving Modeling for Tropical Convection Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, Usama M.

A three-dimensional limited-domain Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) is used in idealized settings to study the interaction between tropical convection and the large scale dynamics. The model domain is doubly periodic and the large-scale circulation is parameterized using the Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) Approximation and Damped Gravity Wave (DGW) methods. The model simulations fall into two main categories: simulations with a prescribed radiative cooling profile, and others in which radiative cooling profile interacts with clouds and water vapor. For experiments with a prescribed radiative cooling profile, radiative heating is taken constant in the vertical in the troposphere. First, the effect of turbulent surface fluxes and radiative cooling on tropical deep convection is studied. In the precipitating equilibria, an increment in surface fluxes produces a greater increase in precipitation than an equal increment in column-integrated radiative heating. The gross moist stability remains close to constant over a wide range of forcings. With dry initial conditions, the system exhibits hysteresis, and maintains a dry state with for a wide range of net energy inputs to the atmospheric column under WTG. However, for the same forcings the system admits a rainy state when initialized with moist conditions, and thus multiple equilibria exist under WTG. When the net forcing is increased enough that simulations, which begin dry, eventually develop precipitation. DGW, on the other hand, does not have the tendency to develop multiple equilibria under the same conditions. The effect of vertical wind shear on tropical deep convection is also studied. The strength and depth of the shear layer are varied as control parameters. Surface fluxes are prescribed. For weak wind shear, time-averaged rainfall decreases with shear and convection remains disorganized. For larger wind shear, rainfall increases with shear, as convection becomes organized into linear mesoscale systems. This non-monotonic dependence of rainfall on shear is observed when the imposed surface fluxes are moderate. For larger surface fluxes, convection in the unsheared basic state is already strongly organized, but increasing wind shear still leads to increasing rainfall. In addition to surface rainfall, the impacts of shear on the parameterized large-scale vertical velocity, convective mass fluxes, cloud fraction, and momentum transport are also discussed. For experiments with interactive radiative cooling profile, the effect of cloud-radiation interaction on cumulus ensemble is examined in sheared and unsheared environments with both fixed and interactive sea surface temperature (SST). For fixed SST, interactive radiation, when compared to simulations in which radiative profile has the same magnitude and vertical shape but does not interact with clouds or water vapor, is found to suppress mean precipitation by inducing strong descent in the lower troposphere, increasing the gross moist stability. For interactive SST, using a slab ocean mixed layer, there exists a shear strength above which the system becomes unstable and develops oscillatory behavior. Oscillations have periods of wet precipitating states followed by periods of dry non-precipitating states. The frequencies of oscillations are intraseasonal to subseasonal, depending on the mixed layer depth. Finally, the model is coupled to a land surface model with fully interactive radiation and surface fluxes to study the diurnal and seasonal radiation and water cycles in the Amazon basin. The model successfully captures the afternoon precipitation and cloud cover peak and the greater latent heat flux in the dry season for the first time; two major biases in GCMs with implications for correct estimates of evaporation and gross primary production in the Amazon. One of the key findings is that the fog layer near the surface in the west season is crucial for determining the surface energy budget and precipitation. This suggests that features on the diurnal time scale can significantly impact climate on the seasonal time scale.

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuyi

2015-04-01

It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m/s. It is found that the air-sea fluxes are quite asymmetric around a storm with complex features representing various air-sea interaction processes in TCs. A unique observation in Typhoon Fanapi is the development of a stable boundary layer in the near-storm cold wake region, which has a direct impact on TC inner core structure and intensity. Despite of the progress, challenges remain. Air-sea momentum exchange in wind speed greater than 30-40 m/s is largely unresolved. Directional wind-wave stress and wave-current stress are difficult to determine from observations. Effects of sea spray on the air-sea fluxes are still not well understood. This talk will provide an overview on progress made in recent years, challenges we are facing, and ways forward. An integrated coupled observational and atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system is urgently needed, in which coupled model development and targeted observations from field campaign and lab measurements together form the core of the research and prediction system. Another important aspect is that fully coupled models provide explicit, integrated impact forecasts of wind, rain, waves, ocean currents and surges in TCs and winter storms, which are missing in most current NWP models. It requires a new strategy for model development, evaluation, and verification. Ensemble forecasts using high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models can provide probabilistic forecasts and quantitative uncertainty estimates, which also allow us to explore new methodologies to verify probabilistic impact forecasts and evaluate model physics using a stochastic approach. Examples of such approach in TCs including Superstorm Sandy will be presented.

Influence of omni-directional guide vane on the performance of cross-flow rotor for urban wind energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicaksono, Yoga Arob; Tjahjana, Dominicus Danardono Dwi Prija; Hadi, Syamsul

2018-02-01

Vertical axis wind turbine like cross-flow rotor have some advantage there are, high self-starting torque, low noise, and high stability; so, it can be installed in the urban area to produce electricity. But, the urban area has poor wind condition, so the cross-flow rotor needs a guide vane to increase its performance. The aim of this study is to determine experimentally the effect of Omni-Directional Guide Vane (ODGV) on the performance of a cross-flow wind turbine. Wind tunnel experiment has been carried out for various configurations. The ODGV was placed around the cross-flow rotor in order to increase ambient wind environment of the wind turbine. The maximum power coefficient is obtained as Cpmax = 0.125 at 60° wind direction. It was 21.46% higher compared to cross-flow wind turbine without ODGV. This result showed that the ODGV able to increase the performance of the cross-flow wind turbine.

Hyper-dry conditions provide new insights into the cause of extreme floods after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, John A.; Ebel, Brian A.

2012-01-01

A catastrophic wildfire in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains near Boulder, Colorado provided a unique opportunity to investigate soil conditions immediately after a wildfire and before alteration by rainfall. Measurements of near-surface (θ; and matric suction, ψ), rainfall, and wind velocity were started 8 days after the wildfire began. These measurements established that hyper-dryconditions (θ 3 cm-3; ψ > ~ 3 x 105 cm) existed and provided an in-situ retention curve for these conditions. These conditions exacerbate the effects of water repellency (natural and fire-induced) and limit the effectiveness of capillarity and gravity driven infiltration into fire-affected soils. The important consequence is that given hyper-dryconditions, the critical rewetting process before the first rain is restricted to the diffusion–adsorption of water-vapor. This process typically has a time scale of days to weeks (especially when the hydrologic effects of the ash layer are included) that is longer than the typical time scale (minutes to hours) of some rainstorms, such that under hyper-dryconditions essentially no rain infiltrates. The existence of hyper-dryconditions provides insight into why, frequently during the first rain storm after a wildfire, nearly all rainfall becomes runoff causing extremefloods and debris flows.

High Resolution Wind Direction and Speed Information for Support of Fire Operations

Treesearch

B.W. Butler; J.M. Forthofer; M.A. Finney; L.S. Bradshaw; R. Stratton

2006-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technology has been used to model wind speed and direction in mountainous terrain at a relatively high resolution compared to other readily available technologies. The process termed “gridded wind” is not a forecast, but rather represents a method for calculating the influence of terrain on general wind flows. Gridded wind simulations...

Brandburg Prominance, Namibia, Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The Brandburg Prominance, Namibia (21.0S, 14.5E) is a round basaltic plug and is the highest feature (over 8,000 ft) in the country. Wind streaks on the surface of the coastal desert, aligned northeast to southwest, are the result of frequent sand storms. Coastal stratus clouds provide most of the life supporting moisture as fog droplets in this arid land where annual rainfall may be less than a quarter of an inch for decades at a time.

Case study: A severe hailstorm and strong downbursts over northeastern Slovenia on June 16th 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korosec, M.

2009-09-01

Introduction A strong isolated storm complex with bow echo feature crossed northeastern Slovenia in the late afternoon hours and caused extensive damage due to severe wind gusts near 30m/s, excessive rainfalls and large hail. Synoptic situation On June 16th 2009, an upper-level ridge persists over southern Europe while a positively tilted short-wave trough, connected to a complex deep trough over northern Europe, crosses central Europe. Accompanied by this trough, a cold front is extending southwestwards towards the Alps. A relatively strong jet steak wraps around the trough axis and creates strong shear environment which overlaps with a narrow band of unstable airmass present ahead of the coming frontal boundary. Behind this trough/front over central Europe, a high pressure area is developing with stable conditions. Over Slovenia, strong surface heating was on going through the day but lack of near-surface convergence zones, limited moisture and strong capping inversion surpressed any storm initiation in the afternoon. Presentation of research This case study will go through a research of damaging bow echo which caused extensive damage due to severe winds, excessive rainfalls and large hail over much of northeastern Slovenia. Numerous trees were down or uprooted and numerous roofs were blown off or were seriously damaged due to severe wind gusts near or exceeding 30m/s. At first stages, when an isolated severe storm entered Slovenia, it had classic high precipitation supercell features while it transformed into a powerful bow echo later on. Very large hail up to 6cm in diameter was first observed in southeast Austria and near the border with Slovenia, while later on the main threat was very strong wind gusts and intense rainfalls. This research paper will show a detailed analysis of the synoptic situation including analysis of satellite, radar and surface observations. Radar imagery clearly showed isolated storm trailing along the near-surface frontal boundary as a bow echo and also satellite imagery showed signs of extremely severe storm as overshooting tops, "cold ring" and "U-shape" features were observed. References - Skywarn Austria forum: (http://www.skywarn.at/forum/) - EARS radar and SFC observations archive (http://www.arso.gov.si) - EARS article: Porocilo o neurjih 16. junija 2009 - OSMER FVG (http://www.meteo.fvg.it) - ESSL/ESWD database (www.essl.org) - ESTOFEX convective maps (www.estofex.org) - EUMETSAT satellite imagery (www.eumetsat.int) - 24ur.com/RTVSLO web portal (www.24ur.com, www.rtvslo.si) - Sobota Info web portal (www.sobotainfo.com) - Pomurje web portal (www.pomurje.si) - Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief, www.sos112.si - Worldwide Skew-t diagrams (http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/europe.html)

Study on reinforcement of soil for suppressing fugitive dust by bio-cementitious material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Qiwei; Qian, Chunxiang

2017-06-01

Microbial-induced reinforcement of soil, as a new green and environmental-friendly method, is being paid extensive attention to in that it has low cost, simple operation and rapid effects. In this research, reinforcement of soil for suppressing fugitive dust by bio-cementitious material was investigated. Soil cemented by bio-cementitious material had superior mechanical properties, such as hardness, compressive strength, microstructure, wind-erosion resistance, rainfall-erosion resistance and freeze-thaw resistance. The average hardness of sandy soil, floury soil and clay soil is 18.9 º, 25.2 º and 26.1 º, while average compressive strength of samples is 0.43 MPa, 0.54 MPa and 0.69 MPa, respectively; meanwhile, the average calcite content of samples is 6.85 %, 6.09 %, and 5.96 %, respectively. Compared with the original sandy soil, floury soil and clay soil, the porosity decreases by 38.5 %, 33.7 % and 29.2 %. When wind speed is 12 m/s, the mass loss of sandy soil, floury soil and clay soil cemented by bio-cementitious material are all less than 30 g/(m2·h). After three cycles of rainfall erosion of 2.5 mm/h, the mass loss are less than 25 g/(m2·h) and the compressive strength residual ratio are more than 98.0 %. Under 25 cycles of freeze-thaw, the mass loss ratio are less than 3.0 %.

Association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather in Inner Mongolia: A panel study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jixia, Huang; Qibin, Zhang; Jing, Tan; Depeng, Yue; Quansheng, Ge

2018-04-01

Forestry ecological engineering projects in Western China include the Three-North Shelter Forest Project (TNSFP), the Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP), the Grain for Green Project (GGP) and the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project (BTSSP). Such projects play an important role in the control of dust weather in Western China. In this research, data on the frequency of sandstorms, sand-blowing and dust-floating weather, the area of four forestry ecological engineering projects, wind, rainfall and vegetation coverage from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the unit of prefecture-level cities in Inner Mongolia. The panel-data model was used to analyze the quantitative association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather. The results indicate that wind has a strong promotional effect on dust weather, while forestry ecological engineering and rainfall have a containment effect. In addition, the impacts of the four studied forestry ecological engineering projects on dust weather differ. For every increase of 1000 km2 in the Three-North Shelter Forest Project, the annual number of days of sandstorm weather decreased by 4 days. Similarly, for every increase of 1000 km2 in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project, the sand-blowing weather decreased by 4.4 days annually. In addition, NFPP and GGP have a more obvious inhibitory effect on the dust-floating weather.

Assessing weather effects on dengue disease in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheong, Yoon Ling; Burkart, Katrin; Leitão, Pedro J; Lakes, Tobia

2013-11-26

The number of dengue cases has been increasing on a global level in recent years, and particularly so in Malaysia, yet little is known about the effects of weather for identifying the short-term risk of dengue for the population. The aim of this paper is to estimate the weather effects on dengue disease accounting for non-linear temporal effects in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya, Malaysia, from 2008 to 2010. We selected the weather parameters with a Poisson generalized additive model, and then assessed the effects of minimum temperature, bi-weekly accumulated rainfall and wind speed on dengue cases using a distributed non-linear lag model while adjusting for trend, day-of-week and week of the year. We found that the relative risk of dengue cases is positively associated with increased minimum temperature at a cumulative percentage change of 11.92% (95% CI: 4.41-32.19), from 25.4 °C to 26.5 °C, with the highest effect delayed by 51 days. Increasing bi-weekly accumulated rainfall had a positively strong effect on dengue cases at a cumulative percentage change of 21.45% (95% CI: 8.96, 51.37), from 215 mm to 302 mm, with the highest effect delayed by 26-28 days. The wind speed is negatively associated with dengue cases. The estimated lagged effects can be adapted in the dengue early warning system to assist in vector control and prevention plan.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

Chesapeake Bay plankton and fish abundance enhanced by Hurricane Isabel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, M. R.; Boicourt, W. C.; Kimmel, D. G.; Miller, W. D.; Adolf, J. E.; Bichy, J.; Harding, L. W., Jr.; Houde, E. D.; Jung, S.; Zhang, X.

Hurricane Isabel made landfall east of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, as a Category 2 (Safford-Simpson scale) hurricane on 18 September 2003. The storm's center tracked to the northwest, passing west of Chesapeake Bay (Figure 1) in the early morning of 19 September. Hurricane Isabel brought the highest storm surge and winds to the region since the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954 (http://www.erh. noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/hur/isabel_2003. htm). Storm surge was variable in the region, reaching a high of 2.7 m on the western side of the bay where the heaviest rainfall occurred. The highest sustained wind in the bay region reached 30.8 m s-1 at Gloucester Point,Virginia, with gusts to 40.7 m s-1.

Application of nonparametric regression methods to study the relationship between NO2 concentrations and local wind direction and speed at background sites.

PubMed

Donnelly, Aoife; Misstear, Bruce; Broderick, Brian

2011-02-15

Background concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) are not constant but vary temporally and spatially. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification of the effects of wind direction and wind speed on background NO(2) concentrations, particularly in cases where monitoring data are limited. In contrast to previous studies which applied similar methods to sites directly affected by local pollution sources, the current study focuses on background sites with the aim of improving methods for predicting background concentrations adopted in air quality modelling studies. The relationship between measured NO(2) concentration in air at three such sites in Ireland and locally measured wind direction has been quantified using nonparametric regression methods. The major aim was to analyse a method for quantifying the effects of local wind direction on background levels of NO(2) in Ireland. The method was expanded to include wind speed as an added predictor variable. A Gaussian kernel function is used in the analysis and circular statistics employed for the wind direction variable. Wind direction and wind speed were both found to have a statistically significant effect on background levels of NO(2) at all three sites. Frequently environmental impact assessments are based on short term baseline monitoring producing a limited dataset. The presented non-parametric regression methods, in contrast to the frequently used methods such as binning of the data, allow concentrations for missing data pairs to be estimated and distinction between spurious and true peaks in concentrations to be made. The methods were found to provide a realistic estimation of long term concentration variation with wind direction and speed, even for cases where the data set is limited. Accurate identification of the actual variation at each location and causative factors could be made, thus supporting the improved definition of background concentrations for use in air quality modelling studies. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flight paths of seabirds soaring over the ocean surface enable measurement of fine-scale wind speed and direction.

PubMed

Yonehara, Yoshinari; Goto, Yusuke; Yoda, Ken; Watanuki, Yutaka; Young, Lindsay C; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André; Sato, Katsufumi

2016-08-09

Ocean surface winds are an essential factor in understanding the physical interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. Surface winds measured by satellite scatterometers and buoys cover most of the global ocean; however, there are still spatial and temporal gaps and finer-scale variations of wind that may be overlooked, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we show that flight paths of soaring seabirds can be used to estimate fine-scale (every 5 min, ∼5 km) ocean surface winds. Fine-scale global positioning system (GPS) positional data revealed that soaring seabirds flew tortuously and ground speed fluctuated presumably due to tail winds and head winds. Taking advantage of the ground speed difference in relation to flight direction, we reliably estimated wind speed and direction experienced by the birds. These bird-based wind velocities were significantly correlated with wind velocities estimated by satellite-borne scatterometers. Furthermore, extensive travel distances and flight duration of the seabirds enabled a wide range of high-resolution wind observations, especially in coastal areas. Our study suggests that seabirds provide a platform from which to measure ocean surface winds, potentially complementing conventional wind measurements by covering spatial and temporal measurement gaps.

Flight paths of seabirds soaring over the ocean surface enable measurement of fine-scale wind speed and direction

PubMed Central

Yonehara, Yoshinari; Goto, Yusuke; Yoda, Ken; Watanuki, Yutaka; Young, Lindsay C.; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André; Sato, Katsufumi

2016-01-01

Ocean surface winds are an essential factor in understanding the physical interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. Surface winds measured by satellite scatterometers and buoys cover most of the global ocean; however, there are still spatial and temporal gaps and finer-scale variations of wind that may be overlooked, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we show that flight paths of soaring seabirds can be used to estimate fine-scale (every 5 min, ∼5 km) ocean surface winds. Fine-scale global positioning system (GPS) positional data revealed that soaring seabirds flew tortuously and ground speed fluctuated presumably due to tail winds and head winds. Taking advantage of the ground speed difference in relation to flight direction, we reliably estimated wind speed and direction experienced by the birds. These bird-based wind velocities were significantly correlated with wind velocities estimated by satellite-borne scatterometers. Furthermore, extensive travel distances and flight duration of the seabirds enabled a wide range of high-resolution wind observations, especially in coastal areas. Our study suggests that seabirds provide a platform from which to measure ocean surface winds, potentially complementing conventional wind measurements by covering spatial and temporal measurement gaps. PMID:27457932

Analysis of water-level fluctuations of Lakes Winona and Winnemissett-- two landlocked lakes in a karst terrane in Volusia County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughes, G.H.

1979-01-01

The water levels of Lakes Winona and Winnemissett in Volusia County, Fla., correlate reasonably well during dry spells but only poorly during wet spells. Disparities develop mostly at times when the lake levels rise abruptly owing to rainstorms passing over the lake basins. The lack of correlation is attributed to the uneven distribution of the storm rainfall, even though the average annual rainfall at National Weather Service gages in the general area of the lakes is about the same. Analyses of the monthly rainfall data show that the rainfall variability between gages is sufficient to account for most of the disparity between monthly changes in the levels of the two lakes. The total annual rainfall at times may differ between rainfall gages by as much as 15 to 20 inches. Such differences tend to balance over the long term but may persist in the same direction for two or more years, causing apparent anomalies in lake-level fluctuations. (Woodard-USGS)

Using Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method to estimate rainfall (case study in Bali, December 14th 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vista Wulandari, Ayu; Rizki Pratama, Khafid; Ismail, Prayoga

2018-05-01

Accurate and realtime data in wide spatial space at this time is still a problem because of the unavailability of observation of rainfall in each region. Weather satellites have a very wide range of observations and can be used to determine rainfall variability with better resolution compared with a limited direct observation. Utilization of Himawari-8 satellite data in estimating rainfall using Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method. The CST method is performed by separating convective and stratiform cloud components using infrared channel satellite data. Cloud components are classified by slope because the physical and dynamic growth processes are very different. This research was conducted in Bali area on December 14, 2016 by verifying the result of CST process with rainfall data from Ngurah Rai Meteorology Station Bali. It is found that CST method result had simililar value with data observation in Ngurah Rai meteorological station, so it assumed that CST method can be used for rainfall estimation in Bali region.

Good Days, Bad Days: Wind as a Driver of Foraging Success in a Flightless Seabird, the Southern Rockhopper Penguin

PubMed Central

Dehnhard, Nina; Ludynia, Katrin; Poisbleau, Maud; Demongin, Laurent; Quillfeldt, Petra

2013-01-01

Due to their restricted foraging range, flightless seabirds are ideal models to study the short-term variability in foraging success in response to environmentally driven food availability. Wind can be a driver of upwelling and food abundance in marine ecosystems such as the Southern Ocean, where wind regime changes due to global warming may have important ecological consequences. Southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome) have undergone a dramatic population decline in the past decades, potentially due to changing environmental conditions. We used a weighbridge system to record daily foraging mass gain (the difference in mean mass of adults leaving the colony in the morning and returning to the colony in the evening) of adult penguins during the chick rearing in two breeding seasons. We related the day-to-day variability in foraging mass gain to ocean wind conditions (wind direction and wind speed) and tested for a relationship between wind speed and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). Foraging mass gain was highly variable among days, but did not differ between breeding seasons, chick rearing stages (guard and crèche) and sexes. It was strongly correlated between males and females, indicating synchronous changes among days. There was a significant interaction of wind direction and wind speed on daily foraging mass gain. Foraging mass gain was highest under moderate to strong winds from westerly directions and under weak winds from easterly directions, while decreasing under stronger easterly winds and storm conditions. Ocean wind speed showed a negative correlation with daily SSTA, suggesting that winds particularly from westerly directions might enhance upwelling and consequently the prey availability in the penguins' foraging areas. Our data emphasize the importance of small-scale, wind-induced patterns in prey availability on foraging success, a widely neglected aspect in seabird foraging studies, which might become more important with increasing changes in climatic variability. PMID:24236139

Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world.

PubMed

Licht, A; van Cappelle, M; Abels, H A; Ladant, J-B; Trabucho-Alexandre, J; France-Lanord, C; Donnadieu, Y; Vandenberghe, J; Rigaudier, T; Lécuyer, C; Terry, D; Adriaens, R; Boura, A; Guo, Z; Soe, Aung Naing; Quade, J; Dupont-Nivet, G; Jaeger, J-J

2014-09-25

The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34 Myr ago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.