Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, K. C.; Lee, Y. H.

1983-01-01

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

An efficient computational method for characterizing the effects of random surface errors on the average power pattern of reflectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rahmat-Samii, Y.

1983-01-01

Based on the works of Ruze (1966) and Vu (1969), a novel mathematical model has been developed to determine efficiently the average power pattern degradations caused by random surface errors. In this model, both nonuniform root mean square (rms) surface errors and nonuniform illumination functions are employed. In addition, the model incorporates the dependence on F/D in the construction of the solution. The mathematical foundation of the model rests on the assumption that in each prescribed annular region of the antenna, the geometrical rms surface value is known. It is shown that closed-form expressions can then be derived, which result in a very efficient computational method for the average power pattern. Detailed parametric studies are performed with these expressions to determine the effects of different random errors and illumination tapers on parameters such as gain loss and sidelobe levels. The results clearly demonstrate that as sidelobe levels decrease, their dependence on the surface rms/wavelength becomes much stronger and, for a specified tolerance level, a considerably smaller rms/wavelength is required to maintain the low sidelobes within the required bounds.

Pressing the Approach: A NASA Study of 19 Recent Accidents Yields a New Perspective on Pilot Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berman, Benjamin A.; Dismukes, R. Key

2007-01-01

This article begins with a review of two sample airplane accidents that were caused by pilot error. The analysis of these and 17 other accidents suggested that almost all experienced pilot operating in the same environment in which the accident crews were operating and knowing only what the accident crews knew at each moment of the flight, would be vulnerable to making a similar decision and similar errors. Whether a particular crew in a given situation makes errors depends on somewhat random interaction of factors. Two themes that seem to be prevalent in these cases are: Plan Continuation Bias, and Snowballing Workload.

Error analysis and prevention of cosmic ion-induced soft errors in static CMOS RAMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, S. E.; Ochoa, A., Jr.; Dressendorfer, P. V.; Koga, P.; Kolasinski, W. A.

1982-12-01

Cosmic ray interactions with memory cells are known to cause temporary, random, bit errors in some designs. The sensitivity of polysilicon gate CMOS static RAM designs to logic upset by impinging ions has been studied using computer simulations and experimental heavy ion bombardment. Results of the simulations are confirmed by experimental upset cross-section data. Analytical models have been extended to determine and evaluate design modifications which reduce memory cell sensitivity to cosmic ions. A simple design modification, the addition of decoupling resistance in the feedback path, is shown to produce static RAMs immune to cosmic ray-induced bit errors.

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Kim, Seung-Bum; Lee, Tong; Song, Y. Tony; Tang, Wen-Qing; Atlas, Robert

2004-01-01

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Metrological Software Test for Simulating the Method of Determining the Thermocouple Error in Situ During Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingliang; Su, Jun; Kochan, Orest; Levkiv, Mariana

2018-04-01

The simplified metrological software test (MST) for modeling the method of determining the thermocouple (TC) error in situ during operation is considered in the paper. The interaction between the proposed MST and a temperature measuring system is also reflected in order to study the error of determining the TC error in situ during operation. The modelling studies of the random error influence of the temperature measuring system, as well as interference magnitude (both the common and normal mode noises) on the error of determining the TC error in situ during operation using the proposed MST, have been carried out. The noise and interference of the order of 5-6 μV cause the error of about 0.2-0.3°C. It is shown that high noise immunity is essential for accurate temperature measurements using TCs.

Procedures for dealing with certain types of noise and systematic errors common to many Hadamard transform optical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harwit, M.

1977-01-01

Sources of noise and error correcting procedures characteristic of Hadamard transform optical systems were investigated. Reduction of spectral noise due to noise spikes in the data, the effect of random errors, the relative performance of Fourier and Hadamard transform spectrometers operated under identical detector-noise-limited conditions, and systematic means for dealing with mask defects are among the topics discussed. The distortion in Hadamard transform optical instruments caused by moving Masks, incorrect mask alignment, missing measurements, and diffraction is analyzed and techniques for reducing or eliminating this distortion are described.

[Statistical Process Control (SPC) can help prevent treatment errors without increasing costs in radiotherapy].

PubMed

Govindarajan, R; Llueguera, E; Melero, A; Molero, J; Soler, N; Rueda, C; Paradinas, C

2010-01-01

Statistical Process Control (SPC) was applied to monitor patient set-up in radiotherapy and, when the measured set-up error values indicated a loss of process stability, its root cause was identified and eliminated to prevent set-up errors. Set up errors were measured for medial-lateral (ml), cranial-caudal (cc) and anterior-posterior (ap) dimensions and then the upper control limits were calculated. Once the control limits were known and the range variability was acceptable, treatment set-up errors were monitored using sub-groups of 3 patients, three times each shift. These values were plotted on a control chart in real time. Control limit values showed that the existing variation was acceptable. Set-up errors, measured and plotted on a X chart, helped monitor the set-up process stability and, if and when the stability was lost, treatment was interrupted, the particular cause responsible for the non-random pattern was identified and corrective action was taken before proceeding with the treatment. SPC protocol focuses on controlling the variability due to assignable cause instead of focusing on patient-to-patient variability which normally does not exist. Compared to weekly sampling of set-up error in each and every patient, which may only ensure that just those sampled sessions were set-up correctly, the SPC method enables set-up error prevention in all treatment sessions for all patients and, at the same time, reduces the control costs. Copyright © 2009 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Determination of the precision error of the pulmonary artery thermodilution catheter using an in vitro continuous flow test rig.

PubMed

Yang, Xiao-Xing; Critchley, Lester A; Joynt, Gavin M

2011-01-01

Thermodilution cardiac output using a pulmonary artery catheter is the reference method against which all new methods of cardiac output measurement are judged. However, thermodilution lacks precision and has a quoted precision error of ± 20%. There is uncertainty about its true precision and this causes difficulty when validating new cardiac output technology. Our aim in this investigation was to determine the current precision error of thermodilution measurements. A test rig through which water circulated at different constant rates with ports to insert catheters into a flow chamber was assembled. Flow rate was measured by an externally placed transonic flowprobe and meter. The meter was calibrated by timed filling of a cylinder. Arrow and Edwards 7Fr thermodilution catheters, connected to a Siemens SC9000 cardiac output monitor, were tested. Thermodilution readings were made by injecting 5 mL of ice-cold water. Precision error was divided into random and systematic components, which were determined separately. Between-readings (random) variability was determined for each catheter by taking sets of 10 readings at different flow rates. Coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated for each set and averaged. Between-catheter systems (systematic) variability was derived by plotting calibration lines for sets of catheters. Slopes were used to estimate the systematic component. Performances of 3 cardiac output monitors were compared: Siemens SC9000, Siemens Sirecust 1261, and Philips MP50. Five Arrow and 5 Edwards catheters were tested using the Siemens SC9000 monitor. Flow rates between 0.7 and 7.0 L/min were studied. The CV (random error) for Arrow was 5.4% and for Edwards was 4.8%. The random precision error was ± 10.0% (95% confidence limits). CV (systematic error) was 5.8% and 6.0%, respectively. The systematic precision error was ± 11.6%. The total precision error of a single thermodilution reading was ± 15.3% and ± 13.0% for triplicate readings. Precision error increased by 45% when using the Sirecust monitor and 100% when using the Philips monitor. In vitro testing of pulmonary artery catheters enabled us to measure both the random and systematic error components of thermodilution cardiac output measurement, and thus calculate the precision error. Using the Siemens monitor, we established a precision error of ± 15.3% for single and ± 13.0% for triplicate reading, which was similar to the previous estimate of ± 20%. However, this precision error was significantly worsened by using the Sirecust and Philips monitors. Clinicians should recognize that the precision error of thermodilution cardiac output is dependent on the selection of catheter and monitor model.

Evaluation and Comparison of the Processing Methods of Airborne Gravimetry Concerning the Errors Effects on Downward Continuation Results: Case Studies in Louisiana (USA) and the Tibetan Plateau (China).

PubMed

Zhao, Qilong; Strykowski, Gabriel; Li, Jiancheng; Pan, Xiong; Xu, Xinyu

2017-05-25

Gravity data gaps in mountainous areas are nowadays often filled in with the data from airborne gravity surveys. Because of the errors caused by the airborne gravimeter sensors, and because of rough flight conditions, such errors cannot be completely eliminated. The precision of the gravity disturbances generated by the airborne gravimetry is around 3-5 mgal. A major obstacle in using airborne gravimetry are the errors caused by the downward continuation. In order to improve the results the external high-accuracy gravity information e.g., from the surface data can be used for high frequency correction, while satellite information can be applying for low frequency correction. Surface data may be used to reduce the systematic errors, while regularization methods can reduce the random errors in downward continuation. Airborne gravity surveys are sometimes conducted in mountainous areas and the most extreme area of the world for this type of survey is the Tibetan Plateau. Since there are no high-accuracy surface gravity data available for this area, the above error minimization method involving the external gravity data cannot be used. We propose a semi-parametric downward continuation method in combination with regularization to suppress the systematic error effect and the random error effect in the Tibetan Plateau; i.e., without the use of the external high-accuracy gravity data. We use a Louisiana airborne gravity dataset from the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to demonstrate that the new method works effectively. Furthermore, and for the Tibetan Plateau we show that the numerical experiment is also successfully conducted using the synthetic Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08)-derived gravity data contaminated with the synthetic errors. The estimated systematic errors generated by the method are close to the simulated values. In addition, we study the relationship between the downward continuation altitudes and the error effect. The analysis results show that the proposed semi-parametric method combined with regularization is efficient to address such modelling problems.

Evaluation and Comparison of the Processing Methods of Airborne Gravimetry Concerning the Errors Effects on Downward Continuation Results: Case Studies in Louisiana (USA) and the Tibetan Plateau (China)

PubMed Central

Zhao, Qilong; Strykowski, Gabriel; Li, Jiancheng; Pan, Xiong; Xu, Xinyu

2017-01-01

Gravity data gaps in mountainous areas are nowadays often filled in with the data from airborne gravity surveys. Because of the errors caused by the airborne gravimeter sensors, and because of rough flight conditions, such errors cannot be completely eliminated. The precision of the gravity disturbances generated by the airborne gravimetry is around 3–5 mgal. A major obstacle in using airborne gravimetry are the errors caused by the downward continuation. In order to improve the results the external high-accuracy gravity information e.g., from the surface data can be used for high frequency correction, while satellite information can be applying for low frequency correction. Surface data may be used to reduce the systematic errors, while regularization methods can reduce the random errors in downward continuation. Airborne gravity surveys are sometimes conducted in mountainous areas and the most extreme area of the world for this type of survey is the Tibetan Plateau. Since there are no high-accuracy surface gravity data available for this area, the above error minimization method involving the external gravity data cannot be used. We propose a semi-parametric downward continuation method in combination with regularization to suppress the systematic error effect and the random error effect in the Tibetan Plateau; i.e., without the use of the external high-accuracy gravity data. We use a Louisiana airborne gravity dataset from the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to demonstrate that the new method works effectively. Furthermore, and for the Tibetan Plateau we show that the numerical experiment is also successfully conducted using the synthetic Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08)-derived gravity data contaminated with the synthetic errors. The estimated systematic errors generated by the method are close to the simulated values. In addition, we study the relationship between the downward continuation altitudes and the error effect. The analysis results show that the proposed semi-parametric method combined with regularization is efficient to address such modelling problems. PMID:28587086

Evaluation and Comparison of the Processing Methods of Airborne Gravimetry Concerning the Errors Effects on Downward Continuation Results: Case Studies in Louisiana (USA) and the Tibetan Plateau (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Q.

2017-12-01

Gravity data gaps in mountainous areas are nowadays often filled in with the data from airborne gravity surveys. Because of the errors caused by the airborne gravimeter sensors, and because of rough flight conditions, such errors cannot be completely eliminated. The precision of the gravity disturbances generated by the airborne gravimetry is around 3-5 mgal. A major obstacle in using airborne gravimetry are the errors caused by the downward continuation. In order to improve the results the external high-accuracy gravity information e.g., from the surface data can be used for high frequency correction, while satellite information can be applying for low frequency correction. Surface data may be used to reduce the systematic errors, while regularization methods can reduce the random errors in downward continuation. Airborne gravity surveys are sometimes conducted in mountainous areas and the most extreme area of the world for this type of survey is the Tibetan Plateau. Since there are no high-accuracy surface gravity data available for this area, the above error minimization method involving the external gravity data cannot be used. We propose a semi-parametric downward continuation method in combination with regularization to suppress the systematic error effect and the random error effect in the Tibetan Plateau; i.e., without the use of the external high-accuracy gravity data. We use a Louisiana airborne gravity dataset from the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to demonstrate that the new method works effectively. Furthermore, and for the Tibetan Plateau we show that the numerical experiment is also successfully conducted using the synthetic Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08)-derived gravity data contaminated with the synthetic errors. The estimated systematic errors generated by the method are close to the simulated values. In addition, we study the relationship between the downward continuation altitudes and the error effect. The analysis results show that the proposed semi-parametric method combined with regularization is efficient to address such modelling problems.

32-Bit-Wide Memory Tolerates Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buskirk, Glenn A.

1990-01-01

Electronic memory system of 32-bit words corrects bit errors caused by some common type of failures - even failure of entire 4-bit-wide random-access-memory (RAM) chip. Detects failure of two such chips, so user warned that ouput of memory may contain errors. Includes eight 4-bit-wide DRAM's configured so each bit of each DRAM assigned to different one of four parallel 8-bit words. Each DRAM contributes only 1 bit to each 8-bit word.

A Permutation-Randomization Approach to Test the Spatial Distribution of Plant Diseases.

PubMed

Lione, G; Gonthier, P

2016-01-01

The analysis of the spatial distribution of plant diseases requires the availability of trustworthy geostatistical methods. The mean distance tests (MDT) are here proposed as a series of permutation and randomization tests to assess the spatial distribution of plant diseases when the variable of phytopathological interest is categorical. A user-friendly software to perform the tests is provided. Estimates of power and type I error, obtained with Monte Carlo simulations, showed the reliability of the MDT (power > 0.80; type I error < 0.05). A biological validation on the spatial distribution of spores of two fungal pathogens causing root rot on conifers was successfully performed by verifying the consistency between the MDT responses and previously published data. An application of the MDT was carried out to analyze the relation between the plantation density and the distribution of the infection of Gnomoniopsis castanea, an emerging fungal pathogen causing nut rot on sweet chestnut. Trees carrying nuts infected by the pathogen were randomly distributed in areas with different plantation densities, suggesting that the distribution of G. castanea was not related to the plantation density. The MDT could be used to analyze the spatial distribution of plant diseases both in agricultural and natural ecosystems.

Packet error rate analysis of decode-and-forward free-space optical cooperative networks in the presence of random link blockage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zdravković, Nemanja; Cvetkovic, Aleksandra; Milic, Dejan; Djordjevic, Goran T.

2017-09-01

This paper analyses end-to-end packet error rate (PER) of a free-space optical decode-and-forward cooperative network over a gamma-gamma atmospheric turbulence channel in the presence of temporary random link blockage. Closed-form analytical expressions for PER are derived for the cases with and without transmission links being prone to blockage. Two cooperation protocols (denoted as 'selfish' and 'pilot-adaptive') are presented and compared, where the latter accounts for the presence of blockage and adapts transmission power. The influence of scintillation, link distance, average transmitted signal power, network topology and probability of an uplink and/or internode link being blocked are discussed when the destination applies equal gain combining. The results show that link blockage caused by obstacles can degrade system performance, causing an unavoidable PER floor. The implementation of the pilot-adaptive protocol improves performance when compared to the selfish protocol, diminishing internode link blockage and lowering the PER floor, especially for larger networks.

Test-retest reliability of jump execution variables using mechanography: a comparison of jump protocols.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, John S; Johnson, LuAnn; Tomkinson, Grant; Stein, Jesse; Roemmich, James N

2018-05-01

Mechanography during the vertical jump may enhance screening and determining mechanistic causes underlying physical performance changes. Utility of jump mechanography for evaluation is limited by scant test-retest reliability data on force-time variables. This study examined the test-retest reliability of eight jump execution variables assessed from mechanography. Thirty-two women (mean±SD: age 20.8 ± 1.3 yr) and 16 men (age 22.1 ± 1.9 yr) attended a familiarization session and two testing sessions, all one week apart. Participants performed two variations of the squat jump with squat depth self-selected and controlled using a goniometer to 80º knee flexion. Test-retest reliability was quantified as the systematic error (using effect size between jumps), random error (using coefficients of variation), and test-retest correlations (using intra-class correlation coefficients). Overall, jump execution variables demonstrated acceptable reliability, evidenced by small systematic errors (mean±95%CI: 0.2 ± 0.07), moderate random errors (mean±95%CI: 17.8 ± 3.7%), and very strong test-retest correlations (range: 0.73-0.97). Differences in random errors between controlled and self-selected protocols were negligible (mean±95%CI: 1.3 ± 2.3%). Jump execution variables demonstrated acceptable reliability, with no meaningful differences between the controlled and self-selected jump protocols. To simplify testing, a self-selected jump protocol can be used to assess force-time variables with negligible impact on measurement error.

Light Scattered from Polished Optical Surfaces: Wings of the Point Spread Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenknight, C. E.

1984-01-01

Random figure errors from the polishing process plus particles on the main mirrors in a telescope cause an extended point spread function (PSF) declining approximately as the inverse square of the sine of the angle from a star from about 100 micro-rad to a right angle. The decline in at least one case, and probably in general, proceeds as the inverse cube at smaller angles where the usual focal plane aperture radius is chosen. The photometric error due to misalignment by one Airy ring spacing with an aperture of n rings depends on the net variance in the figure. It is approximately 60/(n+1)(3) when using the data of Kormendy (1973). A typical value is 6 x 10 to the -5th power per ring of misalignment with n = 100 rings. The encircled power may be modulated on a time scale of hours by parts per thousand in a wavelength dependent manner due to relative humidity effects on mirror dust. The scattering according to an inverse power law is due to a random walk in aberration height caused by a multitude of facets and slope errors left by the polishing process. A deviation from such a law at grazing emergence may permit monitoring the dust effects.

Medical errors in primary care clinics – a cross sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Patient safety is vital in patient care. There is a lack of studies on medical errors in primary care settings. The aim of the study is to determine the extent of diagnostic inaccuracies and management errors in public funded primary care clinics. Methods This was a cross-sectional study conducted in twelve public funded primary care clinics in Malaysia. A total of 1753 medical records were randomly selected in 12 primary care clinics in 2007 and were reviewed by trained family physicians for diagnostic, management and documentation errors, potential errors causing serious harm and likelihood of preventability of such errors. Results The majority of patient encounters (81%) were with medical assistants. Diagnostic errors were present in 3.6% (95% CI: 2.2, 5.0) of medical records and management errors in 53.2% (95% CI: 46.3, 60.2). For management errors, medication errors were present in 41.1% (95% CI: 35.8, 46.4) of records, investigation errors in 21.7% (95% CI: 16.5, 26.8) and decision making errors in 14.5% (95% CI: 10.8, 18.2). A total of 39.9% (95% CI: 33.1, 46.7) of these errors had the potential to cause serious harm. Problems of documentation including illegible handwriting were found in 98.0% (95% CI: 97.0, 99.1) of records. Nearly all errors (93.5%) detected were considered preventable. Conclusions The occurrence of medical errors was high in primary care clinics particularly with documentation and medication errors. Nearly all were preventable. Remedial intervention addressing completeness of documentation and prescriptions are likely to yield reduction of errors. PMID:23267547

PREVALENCE OF UNCORRECTED REFRACTIVE ERRORS IN ADULTS AGED 30 YEARS AND ABOVE IN A RURAL POPULATION IN PAKISTAN.

PubMed

Abdullah, Ayesha S; Jadoon, Milhammad Zahid; Akram, Mohammad; Awan, Zahid Hussain; Azam, Mohammad; Safdar, Mohammad; Nigar, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Uncorrected refractive errors are a leading cause of visual disability globally. This population-based study was done to estimate the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors in adults aged 30 years and above of village Pawakah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan. It was a cross-sectional survey in which 1000 individuals were included randomly. All the individuals were screened for uncorrected refractive errors and those whose visual acuity (VA) was found to be less than 6/6 were refracted. In whom refraction was found to be unsatisfactory (i.e., a best corrected visual acuity of <6/6) further examination was done to establish the cause for the subnormal vision. A total of 917 subjects participated in the survey (response rate 92%). The prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors was found to be 23.97% among males and 20% among females. The prevalence of visually disabling refractive errors was 6.89% in males and 5.71% in females. The prevalence was seen to increase with age, with maximum prevalence in 51-60 years age group. Hypermetropia (10.14%) was found to be the commonest refractive error followed by Myopia (6.00%) and Astigmatism (5.6%). The prevalence of Presbyopia was 57.5% (60.45% in males and 55.23% in females). Poor affordability was the commonest barrier to the use of spectacles, followed by unawareness. Cataract was the commonest reason for impaired vision after refractive correction. The prevalence of blindness was 1.96% (1.53% in males and 2.28% in females) in this community with cataract as the commonest cause. Despite being the most easily avoidable cause of subnormal vision uncorrected refractive errors still account for a major proportion of the burden of decreased vision in this area. Effective measures for the screening and affordable correction of uncorrected refractive errors need to be incorpora'ted into the health care delivery system.

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Prigent, Catherine; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Aires, Filipe; Boukabara, Sid-Ahmed; Furuzawa, Fumie A.; Masunaga, Hirohiko

2012-01-01

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwave land surface emissivities were quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including SSM/I, TMI and AMSR-E, were studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors in the retrievals. Generally these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 14% (312 K) over desert and 17% (320 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.52% (26 K). In particular, at 85.0/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are mostly likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 1017 K under the most severe conditions.

In the Aftermath: Attitudes of Anesthesiologists to Supportive Strategies After an Unexpected Intraoperative Patient Death.

PubMed

Heard, Gaylene C; Thomas, Rowan D; Sanderson, Penelope M

2016-05-01

Although most anesthesiologists will have 1 catastrophic perioperative event or more during their careers, there has been little research on their attitudes to assistive strategies after the event. There are wide-ranging emotional consequences for anesthesiologists involved in an unexpected intraoperative patient death, particularly if the anesthesiologist made an error. We used a between-groups survey study design to ask whether there are different attitudes to assistive strategies when a hypothetical patient death is caused by a drug error versus not caused by an error. First, we explored attitudes to generalized supportive strategies. Second, we examined our hypothesis that the presence of an error causing the hypothetical patient death would increase the perceived social stigma and self-stigma of help-seeking. Finally, we examined the strategies to assist help-seeking. An anonymous, mailed, self-administered survey was conducted with 1600 consultant anesthesiologists in Australia on the mailing list of the Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists. The participants were randomized into "error" versus "no-error" groups for the hypothetical scenario of patient death due to anaphylaxis. Nonparametric, descriptive, parametric, and inferential tests were used for data analysis. P' is used where P values were corrected for multiple comparisons. There was a usable response rate of 48.9%. When an error had caused the hypothetical patient death, participants were more likely to agree with 4 of the 5 statements about support, including need for time off (P' = 0.003), counseling (P' < 0.001), a formal strategy for assistance (P' < 0.001), and the anesthesiologist not performing further cases that day (P' = 0.047). There were no differences between groups in perceived self-stigma (P = 0.98) or social stigma (P = 0.15) of seeking counseling, whether or not an error had caused the hypothetical patient death. Finally, when an error had caused the patient death, participants were more likely to agree with 2 of the 5 statements about help-seeking, including the need for a formal, hospital-based process that provides information on where to obtain professional counseling (P' = 0.006) and the availability of after-hours counseling services (P' = 0.035). Our participants were more likely to agree with assistive strategies such as not performing further work that day, time off, counseling, formal support strategies, and availability of after-hours counseling services, when the hypothetical patient death from anaphylaxis was due to an error. The perceived stigma toward attending counseling was not affected by the presence or absence of an error as the cause of the patient death, disproving our hypothesis.

The role of model errors represented by nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" within ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Wansuo; Zhao, Peng

2017-04-01

Within the Zebiak-Cane model, the nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV) approach is used to investigate the role of model errors in the "Spring Predictability Barrier" (SPB) phenomenon within ENSO predictions. NFSV-related errors have the largest negative effect on the uncertainties of El Niño predictions. NFSV errors can be classified into two types: the first is characterized by a zonal dipolar pattern of SST anomalies (SSTA), with the western poles centered in the equatorial central-western Pacific exhibiting positive anomalies and the eastern poles in the equatorial eastern Pacific exhibiting negative anomalies; and the second is characterized by a pattern almost opposite the first type. The first type of error tends to have the worst effects on El Niño growth-phase predictions, whereas the latter often yields the largest negative effects on decaying-phase predictions. The evolution of prediction errors caused by NFSV-related errors exhibits prominent seasonality, with the fastest error growth in the spring and/or summer seasons; hence, these errors result in a significant SPB related to El Niño events. The linear counterpart of NFSVs, the (linear) forcing singular vector (FSV), induces a less significant SPB because it contains smaller prediction errors. Random errors cannot generate a SPB for El Niño events. These results show that the occurrence of an SPB is related to the spatial patterns of tendency errors. The NFSV tendency errors cause the most significant SPB for El Niño events. In addition, NFSVs often concentrate these large value errors in a few areas within the equatorial eastern and central-western Pacific, which likely represent those areas sensitive to El Niño predictions associated with model errors. Meanwhile, these areas are also exactly consistent with the sensitive areas related to initial errors determined by previous studies. This implies that additional observations in the sensitive areas would not only improve the accuracy of the initial field but also promote the reduction of model errors to greatly improve ENSO forecasts.

Patterns of technical error among surgical malpractice claims: an analysis of strategies to prevent injury to surgical patients.

PubMed

Regenbogen, Scott E; Greenberg, Caprice C; Studdert, David M; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Zinner, Michael J; Gawande, Atul A

2007-11-01

To identify the most prevalent patterns of technical errors in surgery, and evaluate commonly recommended interventions in light of these patterns. The majority of surgical adverse events involve technical errors, but little is known about the nature and causes of these events. We examined characteristics of technical errors and common contributing factors among closed surgical malpractice claims. Surgeon reviewers analyzed 444 randomly sampled surgical malpractice claims from four liability insurers. Among 258 claims in which injuries due to error were detected, 52% (n = 133) involved technical errors. These technical errors were further analyzed with a structured review instrument designed by qualitative content analysis. Forty-nine percent of the technical errors caused permanent disability; an additional 16% resulted in death. Two-thirds (65%) of the technical errors were linked to manual error, 9% to errors in judgment, and 26% to both manual and judgment error. A minority of technical errors involved advanced procedures requiring special training ("index operations"; 16%), surgeons inexperienced with the task (14%), or poorly supervised residents (9%). The majority involved experienced surgeons (73%), and occurred in routine, rather than index, operations (84%). Patient-related complexities-including emergencies, difficult or unexpected anatomy, and previous surgery-contributed to 61% of technical errors, and technology or systems failures contributed to 21%. Most technical errors occur in routine operations with experienced surgeons, under conditions of increased patient complexity or systems failure. Commonly recommended interventions, including restricting high-complexity operations to experienced surgeons, additional training for inexperienced surgeons, and stricter supervision of trainees, are likely to address only a minority of technical errors. Surgical safety research should instead focus on improving decision-making and performance in routine operations for complex patients and circumstances.

Antioxidant supplements and mortality.

PubMed

Bjelakovic, Goran; Nikolova, Dimitrinka; Gluud, Christian

2014-01-01

Oxidative damage to cells and tissues is considered involved in the aging process and in the development of chronic diseases in humans, including cancer and cardiovascular diseases, the leading causes of death in high-income countries. This has stimulated interest in the preventive potential of antioxidant supplements. Today, more than one half of adults in high-income countries ingest antioxidant supplements hoping to improve their health, oppose unhealthy behaviors, and counteract the ravages of aging. Older observational studies and some randomized clinical trials with high risks of systematic errors ('bias') have suggested that antioxidant supplements may improve health and prolong life. A number of randomized clinical trials with adequate methodologies observed neutral or negative results of antioxidant supplements. Recently completed large randomized clinical trials with low risks of bias and systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials taking systematic errors ('bias') and risks of random errors ('play of chance') into account have shown that antioxidant supplements do not seem to prevent cancer, cardiovascular diseases, or death. Even more, beta-carotene, vitamin A, and vitamin E may increase mortality. Some recent large observational studies now support these findings. According to recent dietary guidelines, there is no evidence to support the use of antioxidant supplements in the primary prevention of chronic diseases or mortality. Antioxidant supplements do not possess preventive effects and may be harmful with unwanted consequences to our health, especially in well-nourished populations. The optimal source of antioxidants seems to come from our diet, not from antioxidant supplements in pills or tablets.

Effect of patient setup errors on simultaneously integrated boost head and neck IMRT treatment plans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Keall, Paul J.; Wu Qiuwen

2005-10-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine dose delivery errors that could result from random and systematic setup errors for head-and-neck patients treated using the simultaneous integrated boost (SIB)-intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique. Methods and Materials: Twenty-four patients who participated in an intramural Phase I/II parotid-sparing IMRT dose-escalation protocol using the SIB treatment technique had their dose distributions reevaluated to assess the impact of random and systematic setup errors. The dosimetric effect of random setup error was simulated by convolving the two-dimensional fluence distribution of each beam with the random setup error probability density distribution. Random setup errorsmore » of {sigma} = 1, 3, and 5 mm were simulated. Systematic setup errors were simulated by randomly shifting the patient isocenter along each of the three Cartesian axes, with each shift selected from a normal distribution. Systematic setup error distributions with {sigma} = 1.5 and 3.0 mm along each axis were simulated. Combined systematic and random setup errors were simulated for {sigma} = {sigma} = 1.5 and 3.0 mm along each axis. For each dose calculation, the gross tumor volume (GTV) received by 98% of the volume (D{sub 98}), clinical target volume (CTV) D{sub 90}, nodes D{sub 90}, cord D{sub 2}, and parotid D{sub 50} and parotid mean dose were evaluated with respect to the plan used for treatment for the structure dose and for an effective planning target volume (PTV) with a 3-mm margin. Results: Simultaneous integrated boost-IMRT head-and-neck treatment plans were found to be less sensitive to random setup errors than to systematic setup errors. For random-only errors, errors exceeded 3% only when the random setup error {sigma} exceeded 3 mm. Simulated systematic setup errors with {sigma} = 1.5 mm resulted in approximately 10% of plan having more than a 3% dose error, whereas a {sigma} = 3.0 mm resulted in half of the plans having more than a 3% dose error and 28% with a 5% dose error. Combined random and systematic dose errors with {sigma} = {sigma} = 3.0 mm resulted in more than 50% of plans having at least a 3% dose error and 38% of the plans having at least a 5% dose error. Evaluation with respect to a 3-mm expanded PTV reduced the observed dose deviations greater than 5% for the {sigma} = {sigma} = 3.0 mm simulations to 5.4% of the plans simulated. Conclusions: Head-and-neck SIB-IMRT dosimetric accuracy would benefit from methods to reduce patient systematic setup errors. When GTV, CTV, or nodal volumes are used for dose evaluation, plans simulated including the effects of random and systematic errors deviate substantially from the nominal plan. The use of PTVs for dose evaluation in the nominal plan improves agreement with evaluated GTV, CTV, and nodal dose values under simulated setup errors. PTV concepts should be used for SIB-IMRT head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma patients, although the size of the margins may be less than those used with three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy.« less

Elimination of Emergency Department Medication Errors Due To Estimated Weights.

PubMed

Greenwalt, Mary; Griffen, David; Wilkerson, Jim

2017-01-01

From 7/2014 through 6/2015, 10 emergency department (ED) medication dosing errors were reported through the electronic incident reporting system of an urban academic medical center. Analysis of these medication errors identified inaccurate estimated weight on patients as the root cause. The goal of this project was to reduce weight-based dosing medication errors due to inaccurate estimated weights on patients presenting to the ED. Chart review revealed that 13.8% of estimated weights documented on admitted ED patients varied more than 10% from subsequent actual admission weights recorded. A random sample of 100 charts containing estimated weights revealed 2 previously unreported significant medication dosage errors (.02 significant error rate). Key improvements included removing barriers to weighing ED patients, storytelling to engage staff and change culture, and removal of the estimated weight documentation field from the ED electronic health record (EHR) forms. With these improvements estimated weights on ED patients, and the resulting medication errors, were eliminated.

Analysis on pseudo excitation of random vibration for structure of time flight counter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiong; Li, Dapeng

2015-03-01

Traditional computing method is inefficient for getting key dynamical parameters of complicated structure. Pseudo Excitation Method(PEM) is an effective method for calculation of random vibration. Due to complicated and coupling random vibration in rocket or shuttle launching, the new staging white noise mathematical model is deduced according to the practical launch environment. This deduced model is applied for PEM to calculate the specific structure of Time of Flight Counter(ToFC). The responses of power spectral density and the relevant dynamic characteristic parameters of ToFC are obtained in terms of the flight acceptance test level. Considering stiffness of fixture structure, the random vibration experiments are conducted in three directions to compare with the revised PEM. The experimental results show the structure can bear the random vibration caused by launch without any damage and key dynamical parameters of ToFC are obtained. The revised PEM is similar with random vibration experiment in dynamical parameters and responses are proved by comparative results. The maximum error is within 9%. The reasons of errors are analyzed to improve reliability of calculation. This research provides an effective method for solutions of computing dynamical characteristic parameters of complicated structure in the process of rocket or shuttle launching.

Single molecule counting and assessment of random molecular tagging errors with transposable giga-scale error-correcting barcodes.

PubMed

Lau, Billy T; Ji, Hanlee P

2017-09-21

RNA-Seq measures gene expression by counting sequence reads belonging to unique cDNA fragments. Molecular barcodes commonly in the form of random nucleotides were recently introduced to improve gene expression measures by detecting amplification duplicates, but are susceptible to errors generated during PCR and sequencing. This results in false positive counts, leading to inaccurate transcriptome quantification especially at low input and single-cell RNA amounts where the total number of molecules present is minuscule. To address this issue, we demonstrated the systematic identification of molecular species using transposable error-correcting barcodes that are exponentially expanded to tens of billions of unique labels. We experimentally showed random-mer molecular barcodes suffer from substantial and persistent errors that are difficult to resolve. To assess our method's performance, we applied it to the analysis of known reference RNA standards. By including an inline random-mer molecular barcode, we systematically characterized the presence of sequence errors in random-mer molecular barcodes. We observed that such errors are extensive and become more dominant at low input amounts. We described the first study to use transposable molecular barcodes and its use for studying random-mer molecular barcode errors. Extensive errors found in random-mer molecular barcodes may warrant the use of error correcting barcodes for transcriptome analysis as input amounts decrease.

Error of the slanted edge method for measuring the modulation transfer function of imaging systems.

PubMed

Xie, Xufen; Fan, Hongda; Wang, Hongyuan; Wang, Zebin; Zou, Nianyu

2018-03-01

The slanted edge method is a basic approach for measuring the modulation transfer function (MTF) of imaging systems; however, its measurement accuracy is limited in practice. Theoretical analysis of the slanted edge MTF measurement method performed in this paper reveals that inappropriate edge angles and random noise reduce this accuracy. The error caused by edge angles is analyzed using sampling and reconstruction theory. Furthermore, an error model combining noise and edge angles is proposed. We verify the analyses and model with respect to (i) the edge angle, (ii) a statistical analysis of the measurement error, (iii) the full width at half-maximum of a point spread function, and (iv) the error model. The experimental results verify the theoretical findings. This research can be referential for applications of the slanted edge MTF measurement method.

Error sensitivity analysis in 10-30-day extended range forecasting by using a nonlinear cross-prediction error model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zhiye; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Hongbin; Wang, Yongqian; Liu, Jinbao; Feng, Wenlan

2017-06-01

Extended range forecasting of 10-30 days, which lies between medium-term and climate prediction in terms of timescale, plays a significant role in decision-making processes for the prevention and mitigation of disastrous meteorological events. The sensitivity of initial error, model parameter error, and random error in a nonlinear crossprediction error (NCPE) model, and their stability in the prediction validity period in 10-30-day extended range forecasting, are analyzed quantitatively. The associated sensitivity of precipitable water, temperature, and geopotential height during cases of heavy rain and hurricane is also discussed. The results are summarized as follows. First, the initial error and random error interact. When the ratio of random error to initial error is small (10-6-10-2), minor variation in random error cannot significantly change the dynamic features of a chaotic system, and therefore random error has minimal effect on the prediction. When the ratio is in the range of 10-1-2 (i.e., random error dominates), attention should be paid to the random error instead of only the initial error. When the ratio is around 10-2-10-1, both influences must be considered. Their mutual effects may bring considerable uncertainty to extended range forecasting, and de-noising is therefore necessary. Second, in terms of model parameter error, the embedding dimension m should be determined by the factual nonlinear time series. The dynamic features of a chaotic system cannot be depicted because of the incomplete structure of the attractor when m is small. When m is large, prediction indicators can vanish because of the scarcity of phase points in phase space. A method for overcoming the cut-off effect ( m > 4) is proposed. Third, for heavy rains, precipitable water is more sensitive to the prediction validity period than temperature or geopotential height; however, for hurricanes, geopotential height is most sensitive, followed by precipitable water.

Error analysis and experiments of attitude measurement using laser gyroscope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Xin-ran; Ma, Wen-li; Jiang, Ping; Huang, Jin-long; Pan, Nian; Guo, Shuai; Luo, Jun; Li, Xiao

2018-03-01

The precision of photoelectric tracking and measuring equipment on the vehicle and vessel is deteriorated by the platform's movement. Specifically, the platform's movement leads to the deviation or loss of the target, it also causes the jitter of visual axis and then produces image blur. In order to improve the precision of photoelectric equipment, the attitude of photoelectric equipment fixed with the platform must be measured. Currently, laser gyroscope is widely used to measure the attitude of the platform. However, the measurement accuracy of laser gyro is affected by its zero bias, scale factor, installation error and random error. In this paper, these errors were analyzed and compensated based on the laser gyro's error model. The static and dynamic experiments were carried out on a single axis turntable, and the error model was verified by comparing the gyro's output with an encoder with an accuracy of 0.1 arc sec. The accuracy of the gyroscope has increased from 7000 arc sec to 5 arc sec for an hour after error compensation. The method used in this paper is suitable for decreasing the laser gyro errors in inertial measurement applications.

Quantifying Uncertainties in Land-Surface Microwave Emissivity Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Prigent, Catherine; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Aires, Filipe; Boukabara, Sid-Ahmed; Furuzawa, Fumie A.; Masunaga, Hirohiko

2013-01-01

Uncertainties in the retrievals of microwaveland-surface emissivities are quantified over two types of land surfaces: desert and tropical rainforest. Retrievals from satellite-based microwave imagers, including the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager, and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System, are studied. Our results show that there are considerable differences between the retrievals from different sensors and from different groups over these two land-surface types. In addition, the mean emissivity values show different spectral behavior across the frequencies. With the true emissivity assumed largely constant over both of the two sites throughout the study period, the differences are largely attributed to the systematic and random errors inthe retrievals. Generally, these retrievals tend to agree better at lower frequencies than at higher ones, with systematic differences ranging 1%-4% (3-12 K) over desert and 1%-7% (3-20 K) over rainforest. The random errors within each retrieval dataset are in the range of 0.5%-2% (2-6 K). In particular, at 85.5/89.0 GHz, there are very large differences between the different retrieval datasets, and within each retrieval dataset itself. Further investigation reveals that these differences are most likely caused by rain/cloud contamination, which can lead to random errors up to 10-17 K under the most severe conditions.

Exploiting data representation for fault tolerance

DOE PAGES

Hoemmen, Mark Frederick; Elliott, J.; Sandia National Lab.; ...

2015-01-06

Incorrect computer hardware behavior may corrupt intermediate computations in numerical algorithms, possibly resulting in incorrect answers. Prior work models misbehaving hardware by randomly flipping bits in memory. We start by accepting this premise, and present an analytic model for the error introduced by a bit flip in an IEEE 754 floating-point number. We then relate this finding to the linear algebra concepts of normalization and matrix equilibration. In particular, we present a case study illustrating that normalizing both vector inputs of a dot product minimizes the probability of a single bit flip causing a large error in the dot product'smore » result. Moreover, the absolute error is either less than one or very large, which allows detection of large errors. Then, we apply this to the GMRES iterative solver. We count all possible errors that can be introduced through faults in arithmetic in the computationally intensive orthogonalization phase of GMRES, and show that when the matrix is equilibrated, the absolute error is bounded above by one.« less

Effectiveness of Semantic Therapy for Word-Finding Difficulties in Pupils with Persistent Language Impairments: A Randomized Control Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ebbels, Susan H.; Nicoll, Hilary; Clark, Becky; Eachus, Beth; Gallagher, Aoife L.; Horniman, Karen; Jennings, Mary; McEvoy, Kate; Nimmo, Liz; Turner, Gail

2012-01-01

Background: Word-finding difficulties (WFDs) in children have been hypothesized to be caused at least partly by poor semantic knowledge. Therefore, improving semantic knowledge should decrease word-finding errors. Previous studies of semantic therapy for WFDs are inconclusive. Aims: To investigate the effectiveness of semantic therapy for…

Policies on documentation and disciplinary action in hospital pharmacies after a medication error.

PubMed

Bauman, A N; Pedersen, C A; Schommer, J C; Griffith, N L

2001-06-15

Hospital pharmacies were surveyed about policies on medication error documentation and actions taken against pharmacists involved in an error. The survey was mailed to 500 randomly selected hospital pharmacy directors in the United States. Data were collected on the existence of medication error reporting policies, what types of errors were documented and how, and hospital demographics. The response rate was 28%. Virtually all of the hospitals had policies and procedures for medication error reporting. Most commonly, documentation of oral and written reprimand was placed in the personnel file of a pharmacist involved in an error. One sixth of respondents had no policy on documentation or disciplinary action in the event of an error. Approximately one fourth of respondents reported that suspension or termination had been used as a form of disciplinary action; legal action was rarely used. Many respondents said errors that caused harm (42%) or death (40%) to the patient were documented in the personnel file, but 34% of hospitals did not document errors in the personnel file regardless of error type. Nearly three fourths of respondents differentiated between errors caught and not caught before a medication leaves the pharmacy and between errors caught and not caught before administration to the patient. More emphasis is needed on documentation of medication errors in hospital pharmacies.

Errors in causal inference: an organizational schema for systematic error and random error.

PubMed

Suzuki, Etsuji; Tsuda, Toshihide; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Yamamoto, Eiji

2016-11-01

To provide an organizational schema for systematic error and random error in estimating causal measures, aimed at clarifying the concept of errors from the perspective of causal inference. We propose to divide systematic error into structural error and analytic error. With regard to random error, our schema shows its four major sources: nondeterministic counterfactuals, sampling variability, a mechanism that generates exposure events and measurement variability. Structural error is defined from the perspective of counterfactual reasoning and divided into nonexchangeability bias (which comprises confounding bias and selection bias) and measurement bias. Directed acyclic graphs are useful to illustrate this kind of error. Nonexchangeability bias implies a lack of "exchangeability" between the selected exposed and unexposed groups. A lack of exchangeability is not a primary concern of measurement bias, justifying its separation from confounding bias and selection bias. Many forms of analytic errors result from the small-sample properties of the estimator used and vanish asymptotically. Analytic error also results from wrong (misspecified) statistical models and inappropriate statistical methods. Our organizational schema is helpful for understanding the relationship between systematic error and random error from a previously less investigated aspect, enabling us to better understand the relationship between accuracy, validity, and precision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of medication errors in primary health care at Bahrain Defence Force Hospital – prescription-based study

PubMed Central

Aljasmi, Fatema; Almalood, Fatema

2018-01-01

Background One of the important activities that physicians – particularly general practitioners – perform is prescribing. It occurs in most health care facilities and especially in primary health care (PHC) settings. Objectives This study aims to determine what types of prescribing errors are made in PHC at Bahrain Defence Force (BDF) Hospital, and how common they are. Methods This was a retrospective study of data from PHC at BDF Hospital. The data consisted of 379 prescriptions randomly selected from the pharmacy between March and May 2013, and errors in the prescriptions were classified into five types: major omission, minor omission, commission, integration, and skill-related errors. Results Of the total prescriptions, 54.4% (N=206) were given to male patients and 45.6% (N=173) to female patients; 24.8% were given to patients under the age of 10 years. On average, there were 2.6 drugs per prescription. In the prescriptions, 8.7% of drugs were prescribed by their generic names, and 28% (N=106) of prescriptions included an antibiotic. Out of the 379 prescriptions, 228 had an error, and 44.3% (N=439) of the 992 prescribed drugs contained errors. The proportions of errors were as follows: 9.9% (N=38) were minor omission errors; 73.6% (N=323) were major omission errors; 9.3% (N=41) were commission errors; and 17.1% (N=75) were skill-related errors. Conclusion This study provides awareness of the presence of prescription errors and frequency of the different types of errors that exist in this hospital. Understanding the different types of errors could help future studies explore the causes of specific errors and develop interventions to reduce them. Further research should be conducted to understand the causes of these errors and demonstrate whether the introduction of electronic prescriptions has an effect on patient outcomes. PMID:29445304

Theoretical investigation on the mass loss impact on asteroseismic grid-based estimates of mass, radius, and age for RGB stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

2018-01-01

Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.

Quantification of errors in ordinal outcome scales using shannon entropy: effect on sample size calculations.

PubMed

Mandava, Pitchaiah; Krumpelman, Chase S; Shah, Jharna N; White, Donna L; Kent, Thomas A

2013-01-01

Clinical trial outcomes often involve an ordinal scale of subjective functional assessments but the optimal way to quantify results is not clear. In stroke, the most commonly used scale, the modified Rankin Score (mRS), a range of scores ("Shift") is proposed as superior to dichotomization because of greater information transfer. The influence of known uncertainties in mRS assessment has not been quantified. We hypothesized that errors caused by uncertainties could be quantified by applying information theory. Using Shannon's model, we quantified errors of the "Shift" compared to dichotomized outcomes using published distributions of mRS uncertainties and applied this model to clinical trials. We identified 35 randomized stroke trials that met inclusion criteria. Each trial's mRS distribution was multiplied with the noise distribution from published mRS inter-rater variability to generate an error percentage for "shift" and dichotomized cut-points. For the SAINT I neuroprotectant trial, considered positive by "shift" mRS while the larger follow-up SAINT II trial was negative, we recalculated sample size required if classification uncertainty was taken into account. Considering the full mRS range, error rate was 26.1%±5.31 (Mean±SD). Error rates were lower for all dichotomizations tested using cut-points (e.g. mRS 1; 6.8%±2.89; overall p<0.001). Taking errors into account, SAINT I would have required 24% more subjects than were randomized. We show when uncertainty in assessments is considered, the lowest error rates are with dichotomization. While using the full range of mRS is conceptually appealing, a gain of information is counter-balanced by a decrease in reliability. The resultant errors need to be considered since sample size may otherwise be underestimated. In principle, we have outlined an approach to error estimation for any condition in which there are uncertainties in outcome assessment. We provide the user with programs to calculate and incorporate errors into sample size estimation.

MERLIN: a Franco-German LIDAR space mission for atmospheric methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bousquet, P.; Ehret, G.; Pierangelo, C.; Marshall, J.; Bacour, C.; Chevallier, F.; Gibert, F.; Armante, R.; Crevoisier, C. D.; Edouart, D.; Esteve, F.; Julien, E.; Kiemle, C.; Alpers, M.; Millet, B.

2017-12-01

The Methane Remote Sensing Lidar Mission (MERLIN), currently in phase C, is a joint cooperation between France and Germany on the development, launch and operation of a space LIDAR dedicated to the retrieval of total weighted methane (CH4) atmospheric columns. Atmospheric methane is the second most potent anthropogenic greenhouse gas, contributing 20% to climate radiative forcing but also plying an important role in atmospheric chemistry as a precursor of tropospheric ozone and low-stratosphere water vapour. Its short lifetime ( 9 years) and the nature and variety of its anthropogenic sources also offer interesting mitigation options in regards to the 2° objective of the Paris agreement. For the first time, measurements of atmospheric composition will be performed from space thanks to an IPDA (Integrated Path Differential Absorption) LIDAR (Light Detecting And Ranging), with a precision (target ±27 ppb for a 50km aggregation along the trace) and accuracy (target <3.7 ppb at 68%) sufficient to significantly reduce the uncertainties on methane emissions. The very low targeted systematic error target is particularly ambitious compared to current passive methane space mission. It is achievable because of the differential active measurements of MERLIN, which guarantees almost no contamination by aerosols or water vapour cross-sensitivity. As an active mission, MERLIN will deliver global methane weighted columns (XCH4) for all seasons and all latitudes, day and night Here, we recall the MERLIN objectives and mission characteristics. We also propose an end-to-end error analysis, from the causes of random and systematic errors of the instrument, of the platform and of the data treatment, to the error on methane emissions. To do so, we propose an OSSE analysis (observing system simulation experiment) to estimate the uncertainty reduction on methane emissions brought by MERLIN XCH4. The originality of our inversion system is to transfer both random and systematic errors from the observation space to the flux space, thus providing more realistic error reductions than usually provided in OSSE only using the random part of errors. Uncertainty reductions are presented using two different atmospheric transport models, TM3 and LMDZ, and compared with error reduction achieved with the GOSAT passive mission.

A random access memory immune to single event upset using a T-Resistor

DOEpatents

Ochoa, A. Jr.

1987-10-28

In a random access memory cell, a resistance ''T'' decoupling network in each leg of the cell reduces random errors caused by the interaction of energetic ions with the semiconductor material forming the cell. The cell comprises two parallel legs each containing a series pair of complementary MOS transistors having a common gate connected to the node between the transistors of the opposite leg. The decoupling network in each leg is formed by a series pair of resistors between the transistors together with a third resistor interconnecting the junction between the pair of resistors and the gate of the transistor pair forming the opposite leg of the cell. 4 figs.

Random access memory immune to single event upset using a T-resistor

DOEpatents

Ochoa, Jr., Agustin

1989-01-01

In a random access memory cell, a resistance "T" decoupling network in each leg of the cell reduces random errors caused by the interaction of energetic ions with the semiconductor material forming the cell. The cell comprises two parallel legs each containing a series pair of complementary MOS transistors having a common gate connected to the node between the transistors of the opposite leg. The decoupling network in each leg is formed by a series pair of resistors between the transistors together with a third resistor interconnecting the junction between the pair of resistors and the gate of the transistor pair forming the opposite leg of the cell.

Some practical problems in implementing randomization.

PubMed

Downs, Matt; Tucker, Kathryn; Christ-Schmidt, Heidi; Wittes, Janet

2010-06-01

While often theoretically simple, implementing randomization to treatment in a masked, but confirmable, fashion can prove difficult in practice. At least three categories of problems occur in randomization: (1) bad judgment in the choice of method, (2) design and programming errors in implementing the method, and (3) human error during the conduct of the trial. This article focuses on these latter two types of errors, dealing operationally with what can go wrong after trial designers have selected the allocation method. We offer several case studies and corresponding recommendations for lessening the frequency of problems in allocating treatment or for mitigating the consequences of errors. Recommendations include: (1) reviewing the randomization schedule before starting a trial, (2) being especially cautious of systems that use on-demand random number generators, (3) drafting unambiguous randomization specifications, (4) performing thorough testing before entering a randomization system into production, (5) maintaining a dataset that captures the values investigators used to randomize participants, thereby allowing the process of treatment allocation to be reproduced and verified, (6) resisting the urge to correct errors that occur in individual treatment assignments, (7) preventing inadvertent unmasking to treatment assignments in kit allocations, and (8) checking a sample of study drug kits to allow detection of errors in drug packaging and labeling. Although we performed a literature search of documented randomization errors, the examples that we provide and the resultant recommendations are based largely on our own experience in industry-sponsored clinical trials. We do not know how representative our experience is or how common errors of the type we have seen occur. Our experience underscores the importance of verifying the integrity of the treatment allocation process before and during a trial. Clinical Trials 2010; 7: 235-245. http://ctj.sagepub.com.

Sun compass error model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blucker, T. J.; Ferry, W. W.

1971-01-01

An error model is described for the Apollo 15 sun compass, a contingency navigational device. Field test data are presented along with significant results of the test. The errors reported include a random error resulting from tilt in leveling the sun compass, a random error because of observer sighting inaccuracies, a bias error because of mean tilt in compass leveling, a bias error in the sun compass itself, and a bias error because the device is leveled to the local terrain slope.

Ensemble-type numerical uncertainty information from single model integrations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rauser, Florian, E-mail: florian.rauser@mpimet.mpg.de; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2015-07-01

We suggest an algorithm that quantifies the discretization error of time-dependent physical quantities of interest (goals) for numerical models of geophysical fluid dynamics. The goal discretization error is estimated using a sum of weighted local discretization errors. The key feature of our algorithm is that these local discretization errors are interpreted as realizations of a random process. The random process is determined by the model and the flow state. From a class of local error random processes we select a suitable specific random process by integrating the model over a short time interval at different resolutions. The weights of themore » influences of the local discretization errors on the goal are modeled as goal sensitivities, which are calculated via automatic differentiation. The integration of the weighted realizations of local error random processes yields a posterior ensemble of goal approximations from a single run of the numerical model. From the posterior ensemble we derive the uncertainty information of the goal discretization error. This algorithm bypasses the requirement of detailed knowledge about the models discretization to generate numerical error estimates. The algorithm is evaluated for the spherical shallow-water equations. For two standard test cases we successfully estimate the error of regional potential energy, track its evolution, and compare it to standard ensemble techniques. The posterior ensemble shares linear-error-growth properties with ensembles of multiple model integrations when comparably perturbed. The posterior ensemble numerical error estimates are of comparable size as those of a stochastic physics ensemble.« less

Robust quantum logic in neutral atoms via adiabatic Rydberg dressing

DOE PAGES

Keating, Tyler; Cook, Robert L.; Hankin, Aaron M.; ...

2015-01-28

We study a scheme for implementing a controlled-Z (CZ) gate between two neutral-atom qubits based on the Rydberg blockade mechanism in a manner that is robust to errors caused by atomic motion. By employing adiabatic dressing of the ground electronic state, we can protect the gate from decoherence due to random phase errors that typically arise because of atomic thermal motion. In addition, the adiabatic protocol allows for a Doppler-free configuration that involves counterpropagating lasers in a σ +/σ - orthogonal polarization geometry that further reduces motional errors due to Doppler shifts. The residual motional error is dominated by dipole-dipolemore » forces acting on doubly-excited Rydberg atoms when the blockade is imperfect. As a result, for reasonable parameters, with qubits encoded into the clock states of 133Cs, we predict that our protocol could produce a CZ gate in < 10 μs with error probability on the order of 10 -3.« less

Random errors in interferometry with the least-squares method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang Qi

2011-01-20

This investigation analyzes random errors in interferometric surface profilers using the least-squares method when random noises are present. Two types of random noise are considered here: intensity noise and position noise. Two formulas have been derived for estimating the standard deviations of the surface height measurements: one is for estimating the standard deviation when only intensity noise is present, and the other is for estimating the standard deviation when only position noise is present. Measurements on simulated noisy interferometric data have been performed, and standard deviations of the simulated measurements have been compared with those theoretically derived. The relationships havemore » also been discussed between random error and the wavelength of the light source and between random error and the amplitude of the interference fringe.« less

Eye of the Beholder: Stage Entrance Behavior and Facial Expression Affect Continuous Quality Ratings in Music Performance

PubMed Central

Waddell, George; Williamon, Aaron

2017-01-01

Judgments of music performance quality are commonly employed in music practice, education, and research. However, previous studies have demonstrated the limited reliability of such judgments, and there is now evidence that extraneous visual, social, and other “non-musical” features can unduly influence them. The present study employed continuous measurement techniques to examine how the process of forming a music quality judgment is affected by the manipulation of temporally specific visual cues. Video footage comprising an appropriate stage entrance and error-free performance served as the standard condition (Video 1). This footage was manipulated to provide four additional conditions, each identical save for a single variation: an inappropriate stage entrance (Video 2); the presence of an aural performance error midway through the piece (Video 3); the same error accompanied by a negative facial reaction by the performer (Video 4); the facial reaction with no corresponding aural error (Video 5). The participants were 53 musicians and 52 non-musicians (N = 105) who individually assessed the performance quality of one of the five randomly assigned videos via a digital continuous measurement interface and headphones. The results showed that participants viewing the “inappropriate” stage entrance made judgments significantly more quickly than those viewing the “appropriate” entrance, and while the poor entrance caused significantly lower initial scores among those with musical training, the effect did not persist long into the performance. The aural error caused an immediate drop in quality judgments that persisted to a lower final score only when accompanied by the frustrated facial expression from the pianist; the performance error alone caused a temporary drop only in the musicians' ratings, and the negative facial reaction alone caused no reaction regardless of participants' musical experience. These findings demonstrate the importance of visual information in forming evaluative and aesthetic judgments in musical contexts and highlight how visual cues dynamically influence those judgments over time. PMID:28487662

The REH theory of protein and nucleic acid divergence - A retrospective update. [Random Evolutionary Hits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmquist, R.

1978-01-01

The random evolutionary hits (REH) theory of evolutionary divergence, originally proposed in 1972, is restated with attention to certain aspects of the theory that have caused confusion. The theory assumes that natural selection and stochastic processes interact and that natural selection restricts those codon sites which may fix mutations. The predicted total number of fixed nucleotide replacements agrees with data for cytochrome c, a-hemoglobin, beta-hemoglobin, and myoglobin. The restatement analyzes the magnitude of possible sources of errors and simplifies calculational methodology by supplying polynomial expressions to replace tables and graphs.

More on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, K.-M.

1987-01-01

The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occurs. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub e (u) for the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.

Criticality of Adaptive Control Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzelt, Felix; Pawelzik, Klaus

2011-12-01

We show, that stabilization of a dynamical system can annihilate observable information about its structure. This mechanism induces critical points as attractors in locally adaptive control. It also reveals, that previously reported criticality in simple controllers is caused by adaptation and not by other controller details. We apply these results to a real-system example: human balancing behavior. A model of predictive adaptive closed-loop control subject to some realistic constraints is introduced and shown to reproduce experimental observations in unprecedented detail. Our results suggests, that observed error distributions in between the Lévy and Gaussian regimes may reflect a nearly optimal compromise between the elimination of random local trends and rare large errors.

Previous Estimates of Mitochondrial DNA Mutation Level Variance Did Not Account for Sampling Error: Comparing the mtDNA Genetic Bottleneck in Mice and Humans

PubMed Central

Wonnapinij, Passorn; Chinnery, Patrick F.; Samuels, David C.

2010-01-01

In cases of inherited pathogenic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations, a mother and her offspring generally have large and seemingly random differences in the amount of mutated mtDNA that they carry. Comparisons of measured mtDNA mutation level variance values have become an important issue in determining the mechanisms that cause these large random shifts in mutation level. These variance measurements have been made with samples of quite modest size, which should be a source of concern because higher-order statistics, such as variance, are poorly estimated from small sample sizes. We have developed an analysis of the standard error of variance from a sample of size n, and we have defined error bars for variance measurements based on this standard error. We calculate variance error bars for several published sets of measurements of mtDNA mutation level variance and show how the addition of the error bars alters the interpretation of these experimental results. We compare variance measurements from human clinical data and from mouse models and show that the mutation level variance is clearly higher in the human data than it is in the mouse models at both the primary oocyte and offspring stages of inheritance. We discuss how the standard error of variance can be used in the design of experiments measuring mtDNA mutation level variance. Our results show that variance measurements based on fewer than 20 measurements are generally unreliable and ideally more than 50 measurements are required to reliably compare variances with less than a 2-fold difference. PMID:20362273

Multiple Two-Way Time Message Exchange (TTME) Time Synchronization for Bridge Monitoring Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Shi, Fanrong; Tuo, Xianguo; Yang, Simon X.; Li, Huailiang; Shi, Rui

2017-01-01

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have been widely used to collect valuable information in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of bridges, using various sensors, such as temperature, vibration and strain sensors. Since multiple sensors are distributed on the bridge, accurate time synchronization is very important for multi-sensor data fusion and information processing. Based on shape of the bridge, a spanning tree is employed to build linear topology WSNs and achieve time synchronization in this paper. Two-way time message exchange (TTME) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are employed for clock offset estimation. Multiple TTMEs are proposed to obtain a subset of TTME observations. The time out restriction and retry mechanism are employed to avoid the estimation errors that are caused by continuous clock offset and software latencies. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm could avoid the estimation errors caused by clock drift and minimize the estimation error due to the large random variable delay jitter. The proposed algorithm is an accurate and low complexity time synchronization algorithm for bridge health monitoring. PMID:28471418

Multiple Two-Way Time Message Exchange (TTME) Time Synchronization for Bridge Monitoring Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Shi, Fanrong; Tuo, Xianguo; Yang, Simon X; Li, Huailiang; Shi, Rui

2017-05-04

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have been widely used to collect valuable information in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of bridges, using various sensors, such as temperature, vibration and strain sensors. Since multiple sensors are distributed on the bridge, accurate time synchronization is very important for multi-sensor data fusion and information processing. Based on shape of the bridge, a spanning tree is employed to build linear topology WSNs and achieve time synchronization in this paper. Two-way time message exchange (TTME) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are employed for clock offset estimation. Multiple TTMEs are proposed to obtain a subset of TTME observations. The time out restriction and retry mechanism are employed to avoid the estimation errors that are caused by continuous clock offset and software latencies. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm could avoid the estimation errors caused by clock drift and minimize the estimation error due to the large random variable delay jitter. The proposed algorithm is an accurate and low complexity time synchronization algorithm for bridge health monitoring.

Comparison of Oral Reading Errors between Contextual Sentences and Random Words among Schoolchildren

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khalid, Nursyairah Mohd; Buari, Noor Halilah; Chen, Ai-Hong

2017-01-01

This paper compares the oral reading errors between the contextual sentences and random words among schoolchildren. Two sets of reading materials were developed to test the oral reading errors in 30 schoolchildren (10.00±1.44 years). Set A was comprised contextual sentences while Set B encompassed random words. The schoolchildren were asked to…

Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Newborn Infants

PubMed Central

Thomas, Felicity; Signal, Mathew; Harris, Deborah L.; Weston, Philip J.; Harding, Jane E.; Shaw, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Neonatal hypoglycemia is common and can cause serious brain injury. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) could improve hypoglycemia detection, while reducing blood glucose (BG) measurements. Calibration algorithms use BG measurements to convert sensor signals into CGM data. Thus, inaccuracies in calibration BG measurements directly affect CGM values and any metrics calculated from them. The aim was to quantify the effect of timing delays and calibration BG measurement errors on hypoglycemia metrics in newborn infants. Data from 155 babies were used. Two timing and 3 BG meter error models (Abbott Optium Xceed, Roche Accu-Chek Inform II, Nova Statstrip) were created using empirical data. Monte-Carlo methods were employed, and each simulation was run 1000 times. Each set of patient data in each simulation had randomly selected timing and/or measurement error added to BG measurements before CGM data were calibrated. The number of hypoglycemic events, duration of hypoglycemia, and hypoglycemic index were then calculated using the CGM data and compared to baseline values. Timing error alone had little effect on hypoglycemia metrics, but measurement error caused substantial variation. Abbott results underreported the number of hypoglycemic events by up to 8 and Roche overreported by up to 4 where the original number reported was 2. Nova results were closest to baseline. Similar trends were observed in the other hypoglycemia metrics. Errors in blood glucose concentration measurements used for calibration of CGM devices can have a clinically important impact on detection of hypoglycemia. If CGM devices are going to be used for assessing hypoglycemia it is important to understand of the impact of these errors on CGM data. PMID:24876618

Random measurement error: Why worry? An example of cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Brakenhoff, Timo B; van Smeden, Maarten; Visseren, Frank L J; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2018-01-01

With the increased use of data not originally recorded for research, such as routine care data (or 'big data'), measurement error is bound to become an increasingly relevant problem in medical research. A common view among medical researchers on the influence of random measurement error (i.e. classical measurement error) is that its presence leads to some degree of systematic underestimation of studied exposure-outcome relations (i.e. attenuation of the effect estimate). For the common situation where the analysis involves at least one exposure and one confounder, we demonstrate that the direction of effect of random measurement error on the estimated exposure-outcome relations can be difficult to anticipate. Using three example studies on cardiovascular risk factors, we illustrate that random measurement error in the exposure and/or confounder can lead to underestimation as well as overestimation of exposure-outcome relations. We therefore advise medical researchers to refrain from making claims about the direction of effect of measurement error in their manuscripts, unless the appropriate inferential tools are used to study or alleviate the impact of measurement error from the analysis.

Linking performance decline to choking: players' perceptions in basketball.

PubMed

Fryer, Ashley Marie; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Chow, Graig M

2018-02-01

This study was aimed at examining how basketball players view unexpected performance errors in basketball, and under what conditions they perceive them as choking. Fifty-three basketball players were randomly assigned into 2 groups (game half) to evaluate the linkage between performance decline and choking as a function of game-time, score gap and game half. Within each group, players viewed 8 scenario clips, which featured a different player conducting an error, and subsequently rated the extent of performance decline, the instance of choking and the salience of various performance attributions regarding the error. The analysis revealed that choking was most salient in the 2nd half of the game, but an error was perceived as choking more saliently in the beginning of the 2nd half. This trend was also shown for players' perception of performance decline. Players' ratings of the attributions assigned to errors, however, revealed that during the end of the 2nd half, time pressure and lack of concentration were the causes of errors. Overall, the results provide evidence towards a conceptual framework linking performance decline to the perception of choking, and that errors conducted by players are perceived as choking when there is not a salient reason to suggest its occurrence.

Continuous glucose monitoring in newborn infants: how do errors in calibration measurements affect detected hypoglycemia?

PubMed

Thomas, Felicity; Signal, Mathew; Harris, Deborah L; Weston, Philip J; Harding, Jane E; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Chase, J Geoffrey

2014-05-01

Neonatal hypoglycemia is common and can cause serious brain injury. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) could improve hypoglycemia detection, while reducing blood glucose (BG) measurements. Calibration algorithms use BG measurements to convert sensor signals into CGM data. Thus, inaccuracies in calibration BG measurements directly affect CGM values and any metrics calculated from them. The aim was to quantify the effect of timing delays and calibration BG measurement errors on hypoglycemia metrics in newborn infants. Data from 155 babies were used. Two timing and 3 BG meter error models (Abbott Optium Xceed, Roche Accu-Chek Inform II, Nova Statstrip) were created using empirical data. Monte-Carlo methods were employed, and each simulation was run 1000 times. Each set of patient data in each simulation had randomly selected timing and/or measurement error added to BG measurements before CGM data were calibrated. The number of hypoglycemic events, duration of hypoglycemia, and hypoglycemic index were then calculated using the CGM data and compared to baseline values. Timing error alone had little effect on hypoglycemia metrics, but measurement error caused substantial variation. Abbott results underreported the number of hypoglycemic events by up to 8 and Roche overreported by up to 4 where the original number reported was 2. Nova results were closest to baseline. Similar trends were observed in the other hypoglycemia metrics. Errors in blood glucose concentration measurements used for calibration of CGM devices can have a clinically important impact on detection of hypoglycemia. If CGM devices are going to be used for assessing hypoglycemia it is important to understand of the impact of these errors on CGM data. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

A Practical Methodology for Quantifying Random and Systematic Components of Unexplained Variance in a Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard; Obara, Clifford J.; Goodman, Wesley L.

2012-01-01

This paper documents a check standard wind tunnel test conducted in the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (0.3M TCT) that was designed and analyzed using the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE). The test designed to partition the unexplained variance of typical wind tunnel data samples into two constituent components, one attributable to ordinary random error, and one attributable to systematic error induced by covariate effects. Covariate effects in wind tunnel testing are discussed, with examples. The impact of systematic (non-random) unexplained variance on the statistical independence of sequential measurements is reviewed. The corresponding correlation among experimental errors is discussed, as is the impact of such correlation on experimental results generally. The specific experiment documented herein was organized as a formal test for the presence of unexplained variance in representative samples of wind tunnel data, in order to quantify the frequency with which such systematic error was detected, and its magnitude relative to ordinary random error. Levels of systematic and random error reported here are representative of those quantified in other facilities, as cited in the references.

The Effect of Random Error on Diagnostic Accuracy Illustrated with the Anthropometric Diagnosis of Malnutrition

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background It is often thought that random measurement error has a minor effect upon the results of an epidemiological survey. Theoretically, errors of measurement should always increase the spread of a distribution. Defining an illness by having a measurement outside an established healthy range will lead to an inflated prevalence of that condition if there are measurement errors. Methods and results A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted of anthropometric assessment of children with malnutrition. Random errors of increasing magnitude were imposed upon the populations and showed that there was an increase in the standard deviation with each of the errors that became exponentially greater with the magnitude of the error. The potential magnitude of the resulting error of reported prevalence of malnutrition were compared with published international data and found to be of sufficient magnitude to make a number of surveys and the numerous reports and analyses that used these data unreliable. Conclusions The effect of random error in public health surveys and the data upon which diagnostic cut-off points are derived to define “health” has been underestimated. Even quite modest random errors can more than double the reported prevalence of conditions such as malnutrition. Increasing sample size does not address this problem, and may even result in less accurate estimates. More attention needs to be paid to the selection, calibration and maintenance of instruments, measurer selection, training & supervision, routine estimation of the likely magnitude of errors using standardization tests, use of statistical likelihood of error to exclude data from analysis and full reporting of these procedures in order to judge the reliability of survey reports. PMID:28030627

Regression dilution bias: tools for correction methods and sample size calculation.

PubMed

Berglund, Lars

2012-08-01

Random errors in measurement of a risk factor will introduce downward bias of an estimated association to a disease or a disease marker. This phenomenon is called regression dilution bias. A bias correction may be made with data from a validity study or a reliability study. In this article we give a non-technical description of designs of reliability studies with emphasis on selection of individuals for a repeated measurement, assumptions of measurement error models, and correction methods for the slope in a simple linear regression model where the dependent variable is a continuous variable. Also, we describe situations where correction for regression dilution bias is not appropriate. The methods are illustrated with the association between insulin sensitivity measured with the euglycaemic insulin clamp technique and fasting insulin, where measurement of the latter variable carries noticeable random error. We provide software tools for estimation of a corrected slope in a simple linear regression model assuming data for a continuous dependent variable and a continuous risk factor from a main study and an additional measurement of the risk factor in a reliability study. Also, we supply programs for estimation of the number of individuals needed in the reliability study and for choice of its design. Our conclusion is that correction for regression dilution bias is seldom applied in epidemiological studies. This may cause important effects of risk factors with large measurement errors to be neglected.

Radiometric properties of the NS001 Thematic Mapper Simulator aircraft multispectral scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markham, Brian L.; Ahmad, Suraiya P.

1990-01-01

Laboratory tests of the NS001 TM are described emphasizing absolute calibration to determine the radiometry of the simulator's reflective channels. In-flight calibration of the data is accomplished with the NS001 internal integrating-sphere source because instabilities in the source can limit the absolute calibration. The data from 1987-89 indicate uncertainties of up to 25 percent with an apparent average uncertainty of about 15 percent. Also identified are dark current drift and sensitivity changes along the scan line, random noise, and nonlinearity which contribute errors of 1-2 percent. Uncertainties similar to hysteresis are also noted especially in the 2.08-2.35-micron range which can reduce sensitivity and cause errors. The NS001 TM Simulator demonstrates a polarization sensitivity that can generate errors of up to about 10 percent depending on the wavelength.

Using EHR Data to Detect Prescribing Errors in Rapidly Discontinued Medication Orders.

PubMed

Burlison, Jonathan D; McDaniel, Robert B; Baker, Donald K; Hasan, Murad; Robertson, Jennifer J; Howard, Scott C; Hoffman, James M

2018-01-01

Previous research developed a new method for locating prescribing errors in rapidly discontinued electronic medication orders. Although effective, the prospective design of that research hinders its feasibility for regular use. Our objectives were to assess a method to retrospectively detect prescribing errors, to characterize the identified errors, and to identify potential improvement opportunities. Electronically submitted medication orders from 28 randomly selected days that were discontinued within 120 minutes of submission were reviewed and categorized as most likely errors, nonerrors, or not enough information to determine status. Identified errors were evaluated by amount of time elapsed from original submission to discontinuation, error type, staff position, and potential clinical significance. Pearson's chi-square test was used to compare rates of errors across prescriber types. In all, 147 errors were identified in 305 medication orders. The method was most effective for orders that were discontinued within 90 minutes. Duplicate orders were most common; physicians in training had the highest error rate ( p  < 0.001), and 24 errors were potentially clinically significant. None of the errors were voluntarily reported. It is possible to identify prescribing errors in rapidly discontinued medication orders by using retrospective methods that do not require interrupting prescribers to discuss order details. Future research could validate our methods in different clinical settings. Regular use of this measure could help determine the causes of prescribing errors, track performance, and identify and evaluate interventions to improve prescribing systems and processes. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

A case study of the effects of random errors in rawinsonde data on computations of ageostrophic winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, J. T.

1985-01-01

Data input for the AVE-SESAME I experiment are utilized to describe the effects of random errors in rawinsonde data on the computation of ageostrophic winds. Computer-generated random errors for wind direction and speed and temperature are introduced into the station soundings at 25 mb intervals from which isentropic data sets are created. Except for the isallobaric and the local wind tendency, all winds are computed for Apr. 10, 1979 at 2000 GMT. Divergence fields reveal that the isallobaric and inertial-geostrophic-advective divergences are less affected by rawinsonde random errors than the divergence of the local wind tendency or inertial-advective winds.

Automated drug dispensing system reduces medication errors in an intensive care setting.

PubMed

Chapuis, Claire; Roustit, Matthieu; Bal, Gaëlle; Schwebel, Carole; Pansu, Pascal; David-Tchouda, Sandra; Foroni, Luc; Calop, Jean; Timsit, Jean-François; Allenet, Benoît; Bosson, Jean-Luc; Bedouch, Pierrick

2010-12-01

We aimed to assess the impact of an automated dispensing system on the incidence of medication errors related to picking, preparation, and administration of drugs in a medical intensive care unit. We also evaluated the clinical significance of such errors and user satisfaction. Preintervention and postintervention study involving a control and an intervention medical intensive care unit. Two medical intensive care units in the same department of a 2,000-bed university hospital. Adult medical intensive care patients. After a 2-month observation period, we implemented an automated dispensing system in one of the units (study unit) chosen randomly, with the other unit being the control. The overall error rate was expressed as a percentage of total opportunities for error. The severity of errors was classified according to National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention categories by an expert committee. User satisfaction was assessed through self-administered questionnaires completed by nurses. A total of 1,476 medications for 115 patients were observed. After automated dispensing system implementation, we observed a reduced percentage of total opportunities for error in the study compared to the control unit (13.5% and 18.6%, respectively; p<.05); however, no significant difference was observed before automated dispensing system implementation (20.4% and 19.3%, respectively; not significant). Before-and-after comparisons in the study unit also showed a significantly reduced percentage of total opportunities for error (20.4% and 13.5%; p<.01). An analysis of detailed opportunities for error showed a significant impact of the automated dispensing system in reducing preparation errors (p<.05). Most errors caused no harm (National Coordinating Council for Medication Error Reporting and Prevention category C). The automated dispensing system did not reduce errors causing harm. Finally, the mean for working conditions improved from 1.0±0.8 to 2.5±0.8 on the four-point Likert scale. The implementation of an automated dispensing system reduced overall medication errors related to picking, preparation, and administration of drugs in the intensive care unit. Furthermore, most nurses favored the new drug dispensation organization.

TRAINING ERRORS AND RUNNING RELATED INJURIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

PubMed Central

Buist, Ida; Sørensen, Henrik; Lind, Martin; Rasmussen, Sten

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this systematic review was to examine the link between training characteristics (volume, duration, frequency, and intensity) and running related injuries. Methods: A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and SportDiscus. Studies were included if they examined novice, recreational, or elite runners between the ages of 18 and 65. Exposure variables were training characteristics defined as volume, distance or mileage, time or duration, frequency, intensity, speed or pace, or similar terms. The outcome of interest was Running Related Injuries (RRI) in general or specific RRI in the lower extremity or lower back. Methodological quality was evaluated using quality assessment tools of 11 to 16 items. Results: After examining 4561 titles and abstracts, 63 articles were identified as potentially relevant. Finally, nine retrospective cohort studies, 13 prospective cohort studies, six case-control studies, and three randomized controlled trials were included. The mean quality score was 44.1%. Conflicting results were reported on the relationships between volume, duration, intensity, and frequency and RRI. Conclusion: It was not possible to identify which training errors were related to running related injuries. Still, well supported data on which training errors relate to or cause running related injuries is highly important for determining proper prevention strategies. If methodological limitations in measuring training variables can be resolved, more work can be conducted to define training and the interactions between different training variables, create several hypotheses, test the hypotheses in a large scale prospective study, and explore cause and effect relationships in randomized controlled trials. Level of evidence: 2a PMID:22389869

Irregular analytical errors in diagnostic testing - a novel concept.

PubMed

Vogeser, Michael; Seger, Christoph

2018-02-23

In laboratory medicine, routine periodic analyses for internal and external quality control measurements interpreted by statistical methods are mandatory for batch clearance. Data analysis of these process-oriented measurements allows for insight into random analytical variation and systematic calibration bias over time. However, in such a setting, any individual sample is not under individual quality control. The quality control measurements act only at the batch level. Quantitative or qualitative data derived for many effects and interferences associated with an individual diagnostic sample can compromise any analyte. It is obvious that a process for a quality-control-sample-based approach of quality assurance is not sensitive to such errors. To address the potential causes and nature of such analytical interference in individual samples more systematically, we suggest the introduction of a new term called the irregular (individual) analytical error. Practically, this term can be applied in any analytical assay that is traceable to a reference measurement system. For an individual sample an irregular analytical error is defined as an inaccuracy (which is the deviation from a reference measurement procedure result) of a test result that is so high it cannot be explained by measurement uncertainty of the utilized routine assay operating within the accepted limitations of the associated process quality control measurements. The deviation can be defined as the linear combination of the process measurement uncertainty and the method bias for the reference measurement system. Such errors should be coined irregular analytical errors of the individual sample. The measurement result is compromised either by an irregular effect associated with the individual composition (matrix) of the sample or an individual single sample associated processing error in the analytical process. Currently, the availability of reference measurement procedures is still highly limited, but LC-isotope-dilution mass spectrometry methods are increasingly used for pre-market validation of routine diagnostic assays (these tests also involve substantial sets of clinical validation samples). Based on this definition/terminology, we list recognized causes of irregular analytical error as a risk catalog for clinical chemistry in this article. These issues include reproducible individual analytical errors (e.g. caused by anti-reagent antibodies) and non-reproducible, sporadic errors (e.g. errors due to incorrect pipetting volume due to air bubbles in a sample), which can both lead to inaccurate results and risks for patients.

Model-based quantification of image quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazra, Rajeeb; Miller, Keith W.; Park, Stephen K.

1989-01-01

In 1982, Park and Schowengerdt published an end-to-end analysis of a digital imaging system quantifying three principal degradation components: (1) image blur - blurring caused by the acquisition system, (2) aliasing - caused by insufficient sampling, and (3) reconstruction blur - blurring caused by the imperfect interpolative reconstruction. This analysis, which measures degradation as the square of the radiometric error, includes the sample-scene phase as an explicit random parameter and characterizes the image degradation caused by imperfect acquisition and reconstruction together with the effects of undersampling and random sample-scene phases. In a recent paper Mitchell and Netravelli displayed the visual effects of the above mentioned degradations and presented subjective analysis about their relative importance in determining image quality. The primary aim of the research is to use the analysis of Park and Schowengerdt to correlate their mathematical criteria for measuring image degradations with subjective visual criteria. Insight gained from this research can be exploited in the end-to-end design of optical systems, so that system parameters (transfer functions of the acquisition and display systems) can be designed relative to each other, to obtain the best possible results using quantitative measurements.

Network problem threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gejji, Raghvendra, R.

1992-01-01

Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.

Reference-free error estimation for multiple measurement methods.

PubMed

Madan, Hennadii; Pernuš, Franjo; Špiclin, Žiga

2018-01-01

We present a computational framework to select the most accurate and precise method of measurement of a certain quantity, when there is no access to the true value of the measurand. A typical use case is when several image analysis methods are applied to measure the value of a particular quantitative imaging biomarker from the same images. The accuracy of each measurement method is characterized by systematic error (bias), which is modeled as a polynomial in true values of measurand, and the precision as random error modeled with a Gaussian random variable. In contrast to previous works, the random errors are modeled jointly across all methods, thereby enabling the framework to analyze measurement methods based on similar principles, which may have correlated random errors. Furthermore, the posterior distribution of the error model parameters is estimated from samples obtained by Markov chain Monte-Carlo and analyzed to estimate the parameter values and the unknown true values of the measurand. The framework was validated on six synthetic and one clinical dataset containing measurements of total lesion load, a biomarker of neurodegenerative diseases, which was obtained with four automatic methods by analyzing brain magnetic resonance images. The estimates of bias and random error were in a good agreement with the corresponding least squares regression estimates against a reference.

Proportion of medication error reporting and associated factors among nurses: a cross sectional study.

PubMed

Jember, Abebaw; Hailu, Mignote; Messele, Anteneh; Demeke, Tesfaye; Hassen, Mohammed

2018-01-01

A medication error (ME) is any preventable event that may cause or lead to inappropriate medication use or patient harm. Voluntary reporting has a principal role in appreciating the extent and impact of medication errors. Thus, exploration of the proportion of medication error reporting and associated factors among nurses is important to inform service providers and program implementers so as to improve the quality of the healthcare services. Institution based quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted among 397 nurses from March 6 to May 10, 2015. Stratified sampling followed by simple random sampling technique was used to select the study participants. The data were collected using structured self-administered questionnaire which was adopted from studies conducted in Australia and Jordan. A pilot study was carried out to validate the questionnaire before data collection for this study. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with the proportion of medication error reporting among nurses. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was computed to determine the level of significance. The proportion of medication error reporting among nurses was found to be 57.4%. Regression analysis showed that sex, marital status, having made a medication error and medication error experience were significantly associated with medication error reporting. The proportion of medication error reporting among nurses in this study was found to be higher than other studies.

Performance analysis of MIMO wireless optical communication system with Q-ary PPM over correlated log-normal fading channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqin; Wang, Xue; Lynette, Kibe; Cao, Minghua

2018-06-01

The performance of multiple-input multiple-output wireless optical communication systems that adopt Q-ary pulse position modulation over spatial correlated log-normal fading channel is analyzed in terms of its un-coded bit error rate and ergodic channel capacity. The analysis is based on the Wilkinson's method which approximates the distribution of a sum of correlated log-normal random variables to a log-normal random variable. The analytical and simulation results corroborate the increment of correlation coefficients among sub-channels lead to system performance degradation. Moreover, the receiver diversity has better performance in resistance of spatial correlation caused channel fading.

Hybrid empirical mode decomposition- ARIMA for forecasting exchange rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadan, Siti Sarah; Shabri, Ani; Ismail, Shuhaida

2015-02-01

This paper studied the forecasting of monthly Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)/ United State Dollar (USD) exchange rates using the hybrid of two methods which are the empirical model decomposition (EMD) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). MYR is pegged to USD during the Asian financial crisis causing the exchange rates are fixed to 3.800 from 2nd of September 1998 until 21st of July 2005. Thus, the chosen data in this paper is the post-July 2005 data, starting from August 2005 to July 2010. The comparative study using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) showed that the EMD-ARIMA outperformed the single-ARIMA and the random walk benchmark model.

Errors in radial velocity variance from Doppler wind lidar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Doubrawa, P.

A high-fidelity lidar turbulence measurement technique relies on accurate estimates of radial velocity variance that are subject to both systematic and random errors determined by the autocorrelation function of radial velocity, the sampling rate, and the sampling duration. Our paper quantifies the effect of the volumetric averaging in lidar radial velocity measurements on the autocorrelation function and the dependence of the systematic and random errors on the sampling duration, using both statistically simulated and observed data. For current-generation scanning lidars and sampling durations of about 30 min and longer, during which the stationarity assumption is valid for atmospheric flows, themore » systematic error is negligible but the random error exceeds about 10%.« less

Errors in radial velocity variance from Doppler wind lidar

DOE PAGES

Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Doubrawa, P.; ...

2016-08-29

A high-fidelity lidar turbulence measurement technique relies on accurate estimates of radial velocity variance that are subject to both systematic and random errors determined by the autocorrelation function of radial velocity, the sampling rate, and the sampling duration. Our paper quantifies the effect of the volumetric averaging in lidar radial velocity measurements on the autocorrelation function and the dependence of the systematic and random errors on the sampling duration, using both statistically simulated and observed data. For current-generation scanning lidars and sampling durations of about 30 min and longer, during which the stationarity assumption is valid for atmospheric flows, themore » systematic error is negligible but the random error exceeds about 10%.« less

Simulation of wave propagation in three-dimensional random media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Wm. A.; Filice, J. P.; Frehlich, R. G.; Yadlowsky, M.

1995-04-01

Quantitative error analyses for the simulation of wave propagation in three-dimensional random media, when narrow angular scattering is assumed, are presented for plane-wave and spherical-wave geometry. This includes the errors that result from finite grid size, finite simulation dimensions, and the separation of the two-dimensional screens along the propagation direction. Simple error scalings are determined for power-law spectra of the random refractive indices of the media. The effects of a finite inner scale are also considered. The spatial spectra of the intensity errors are calculated and compared with the spatial spectra of

The dependence of crowding on flanker complexity and target-flanker similarity

PubMed Central

Bernard, Jean-Baptiste; Chung, Susana T.L.

2013-01-01

We examined the effects of the spatial complexity of flankers and target-flanker similarity on the performance of identifying crowded letters. On each trial, observers identified the middle character of random strings of three characters (“trigrams”) briefly presented at 10° below fixation. We tested the 26 lowercase letters of the Times-Roman and Courier fonts, a set of 79 characters (letters and non-letters) of the Times-Roman font, and the uppercase letters of two highly complex ornamental fonts, Edwardian and Aristocrat. Spatial complexity of characters was quantified by the length of the morphological skeleton of each character, and target-flanker similarity was defined based on a psychometric similarity matrix. Our results showed that (1) letter identification error rate increases with flanker complexity up to a certain value, beyond which error rate becomes independent of flanker complexity; (2) the increase of error rate is slower for high-complexity target letters; (3) error rate increases with target-flanker similarity; and (4) mislocation error rate increases with target-flanker similarity. These findings, combined with the current understanding of the faulty feature integration account of crowding, provide some constraints of how the feature integration process could cause perceptual errors. PMID:21730225

Scattering from binary optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Douglas W.

1993-01-01

There are a number of sources of scattering in binary optics: etch depth errors, line edge errors, quantization errors, roughness, and the binary approximation to the ideal surface. These sources of scattering can be systematic (deterministic) or random. In this paper, scattering formulas for both systematic and random errors are derived using Fourier optics. These formulas can be used to explain the results of scattering measurements and computer simulations.

The effects of recall errors and of selection bias in epidemiologic studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk.

PubMed

Vrijheid, Martine; Deltour, Isabelle; Krewski, Daniel; Sanchez, Marie; Cardis, Elisabeth

2006-07-01

This paper examines the effects of systematic and random errors in recall and of selection bias in case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer. These sensitivity analyses are based on Monte-Carlo computer simulations and were carried out within the INTERPHONE Study, an international collaborative case-control study in 13 countries. Recall error scenarios simulated plausible values of random and systematic, non-differential and differential recall errors in amount of mobile phone use reported by study subjects. Plausible values for the recall error were obtained from validation studies. Selection bias scenarios assumed varying selection probabilities for cases and controls, mobile phone users, and non-users. Where possible these selection probabilities were based on existing information from non-respondents in INTERPHONE. Simulations used exposure distributions based on existing INTERPHONE data and assumed varying levels of the true risk of brain cancer related to mobile phone use. Results suggest that random recall errors of plausible levels can lead to a large underestimation in the risk of brain cancer associated with mobile phone use. Random errors were found to have larger impact than plausible systematic errors. Differential errors in recall had very little additional impact in the presence of large random errors. Selection bias resulting from underselection of unexposed controls led to J-shaped exposure-response patterns, with risk apparently decreasing at low to moderate exposure levels. The present results, in conjunction with those of the validation studies conducted within the INTERPHONE study, will play an important role in the interpretation of existing and future case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk, including the INTERPHONE study.

On the robustness of bucket brigade quantum RAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunachalam, Srinivasan; Gheorghiu, Vlad; Jochym-O'Connor, Tomas; Mosca, Michele; Varshinee Srinivasan, Priyaa

2015-12-01

We study the robustness of the bucket brigade quantum random access memory model introduced by Giovannetti et al (2008 Phys. Rev. Lett.100 160501). Due to a result of Regev and Schiff (ICALP ’08 733), we show that for a class of error models the error rate per gate in the bucket brigade quantum memory has to be of order o({2}-n/2) (where N={2}n is the size of the memory) whenever the memory is used as an oracle for the quantum searching problem. We conjecture that this is the case for any realistic error model that will be encountered in practice, and that for algorithms with super-polynomially many oracle queries the error rate must be super-polynomially small, which further motivates the need for quantum error correction. By contrast, for algorithms such as matrix inversion Harrow et al (2009 Phys. Rev. Lett.103 150502) or quantum machine learning Rebentrost et al (2014 Phys. Rev. Lett.113 130503) that only require a polynomial number of queries, the error rate only needs to be polynomially small and quantum error correction may not be required. We introduce a circuit model for the quantum bucket brigade architecture and argue that quantum error correction for the circuit causes the quantum bucket brigade architecture to lose its primary advantage of a small number of ‘active’ gates, since all components have to be actively error corrected.

Hematocrit Causes the Most Significant Error in Point of Care Glucometers

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

pneumonia, as it permits leakage of pharyngeal secretions around the cuff. In our randomized controlled trial (5) of 165 patients included in the...interven- tion group, only 9 (5%) required reintu- bation. A few of these patients could per- haps benefit of the evaluation proposed by Stocchetti et al...and avoid an undue extubation; the duration of mechanical ventilation for the overall patients , how- ever, would have been certainly much higher. The

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, C. M.

1984-01-01

Advanced composite aircraft designs include fault-tolerant computer-based digital control systems with thigh reliability requirements for adverse as well as optimum operating environments. Since aircraft penetrate intense electromagnetic fields during thunderstorms, onboard computer systems maya be subjected to field-induced transient voltages and currents resulting in functional error modes which are collectively referred to as digital system upset. A methodology was developed for assessing the upset susceptibility of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general-purpose microprocessor were studied via tests which involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning-induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080-based microcomputer from which upset error data were recorded. The application of Markov modeling to upset susceptibility estimation is discussed and a stochastic model development.

Demonstrating the robustness of population surveillance data: implications of error rates on demographic and mortality estimates.

PubMed

Fottrell, Edward; Byass, Peter; Berhane, Yemane

2008-03-25

As in any measurement process, a certain amount of error may be expected in routine population surveillance operations such as those in demographic surveillance sites (DSSs). Vital events are likely to be missed and errors made no matter what method of data capture is used or what quality control procedures are in place. The extent to which random errors in large, longitudinal datasets affect overall health and demographic profiles has important implications for the role of DSSs as platforms for public health research and clinical trials. Such knowledge is also of particular importance if the outputs of DSSs are to be extrapolated and aggregated with realistic margins of error and validity. This study uses the first 10-year dataset from the Butajira Rural Health Project (BRHP) DSS, Ethiopia, covering approximately 336,000 person-years of data. Simple programmes were written to introduce random errors and omissions into new versions of the definitive 10-year Butajira dataset. Key parameters of sex, age, death, literacy and roof material (an indicator of poverty) were selected for the introduction of errors based on their obvious importance in demographic and health surveillance and their established significant associations with mortality. Defining the original 10-year dataset as the 'gold standard' for the purposes of this investigation, population, age and sex compositions and Poisson regression models of mortality rate ratios were compared between each of the intentionally erroneous datasets and the original 'gold standard' 10-year data. The composition of the Butajira population was well represented despite introducing random errors, and differences between population pyramids based on the derived datasets were subtle. Regression analyses of well-established mortality risk factors were largely unaffected even by relatively high levels of random errors in the data. The low sensitivity of parameter estimates and regression analyses to significant amounts of randomly introduced errors indicates a high level of robustness of the dataset. This apparent inertia of population parameter estimates to simulated errors is largely due to the size of the dataset. Tolerable margins of random error in DSS data may exceed 20%. While this is not an argument in favour of poor quality data, reducing the time and valuable resources spent on detecting and correcting random errors in routine DSS operations may be justifiable as the returns from such procedures diminish with increasing overall accuracy. The money and effort currently spent on endlessly correcting DSS datasets would perhaps be better spent on increasing the surveillance population size and geographic spread of DSSs and analysing and disseminating research findings.

The patterns of refractive errors among the school children of rural and urban settings in Nepal.

PubMed

Pokharel, A; Pokharel, P K; Das, H; Adhikari, S

2010-01-01

The uncorrected refractive error is an important cause of childhood blindness and visual impairment. To study the patterns of refractive errors among the urban and rural school going children of Nepal. A total of 440 school children of urban and rural schools within the age range of 7-15 years were selected for this study using multi-stage randomization technique. The overall prevalance of refractive error in school children was 19.8 %. The commonest refractive error among the students was myopia (59.8 %), followed by hypermetropia (31.0 %). The children of age group 12-15 years had the higher prevalence of myopia as compared to the younger counterparts (42.5 % vs 17.2 %). The prevalence of myopia was 15.5 % among the urban students as compared to 8.2 % among the rural ones (RR = 1.89, 95 % CI = 1.1-3.24). The hypermetropia was more common in urban students than in rural ones (6.4 %) vs 5.9 %, RR = 1.08 (95 % CI: 0.52-2.24). The prevalence of refractive error in the school children of Nepal is 19.8 %. The students from urban settings are more likely to have refractive error than their rural counterparts. © Nepal Ophthalmic Society.

Linear error analysis of slope-area discharge determinations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirby, W.H.

1987-01-01

The slope-area method can be used to calculate peak flood discharges when current-meter measurements are not possible. This calculation depends on several quantities, such as water-surface fall, that are subject to large measurement errors. Other critical quantities, such as Manning's n, are not even amenable to direct measurement but can only be estimated. Finally, scour and fill may cause gross discrepancies between the observed condition of the channel and the hydraulic conditions during the flood peak. The effects of these potential errors on the accuracy of the computed discharge have been estimated by statistical error analysis using a Taylor-series approximation of the discharge formula and the well-known formula for the variance of a sum of correlated random variates. The resultant error variance of the computed discharge is a weighted sum of covariances of the various observational errors. The weights depend on the hydraulic and geometric configuration of the channel. The mathematical analysis confirms the rule of thumb that relative errors in computed discharge increase rapidly when velocity heads exceed the water-surface fall, when the flow field is expanding and when lateral velocity variation (alpha) is large. It also confirms the extreme importance of accurately assessing the presence of scour or fill. ?? 1987.

Improving UK Air Quality Modelling Through Exploitation of Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Richard; Chipperfield, Martyn; Savage, Nick

2014-05-01

In this work the applicability of satellite observations to evaluate the operational UK Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model (AQUM) have been investigated. The main focus involved the AQUM validation against satellite observations, investigation of satellite retrieval error types and of synoptic meteorological-atmospheric chemistry relationships simulated/seen by the AQUM/satellite. The AQUM is a short range forecast model of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols up to 5 days. It has been designed to predict potentially hazardous air pollution events, e.g. high concentrations of surface ozone. The AQUM has only been validated against UK atmospheric chemistry recording surface stations. Therefore, satellite observations of atmospheric chemistry have been used to further validate the model, taking advantage of better satellite spatial coverage. Observations of summer and winter 2006 tropospheric column NO2 from both OMI and SCIAMACHY show that the AQUM generally compares well with the observations. However, in northern England positive biases (AQUM - satellite) suggest that the AQUM overestimates column NO2; we present results of sensitivity experiments on UK emissions datasets suspected to be the cause. In winter, the AQUM over predicts background column NO2 when compared to both satellite instruments. We hypothesise that the cause is the AQUM winter night-time chemistry, where the NO2 sinks are not substantially defined. Satellite data are prone to errors/uncertainty such as random, systematic and smoothing errors. We have investigated these error types and developed an algorithm to calculate and reduce the random error component of DOAS NO2 retrievals, giving more robust seasonal satellite composites. The Lamb Weather Types (LWT), an objective method of classifying the daily synoptic weather over the UK, were used to create composite satellite maps of column NO2 under different synoptic conditions. Under cyclonic conditions, satellite observed UK column NO2 is reduced as the indicative south-westerly flow transports it away from the UK over the North Sea. However, under anticyclonic conditions, the satellite shows that the stable conditions enhance the build-up of column NO2 over source regions. The influence of wind direction on column NO2 can also be seen from space with transport leeward of the source regions.

Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallow-water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Guang'an; Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu

2016-09-01

Sensitive areas for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a 1.5-layer, shallow-water ocean model were investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and first singular vector (FSV) methods. A series of sensitivity experiments were designed to test the sensitivity of sensitive areas within the numerical model. The following results were obtained: (1) the eff ect of initial CNOP and FSV patterns in their sensitive areas is greater than that of the same patterns in randomly selected areas, with the eff ect of the initial CNOP patterns in CNOP sensitive areas being the greatest; (2) both CNOP- and FSV-type initial errors grow more quickly than random errors; (3) the eff ect of random errors superimposed on the sensitive areas is greater than that of random errors introduced into randomly selected areas, and initial errors in the CNOP sensitive areas have greater eff ects on final forecasts. These results reveal that the sensitive areas determined using the CNOP are more sensitive than those of FSV and other randomly selected areas. In addition, ideal hindcasting experiments were conducted to examine the validity of the sensitive areas. The results indicate that reduction (or elimination) of CNOP-type errors in CNOP sensitive areas at the initial time has a greater forecast benefit than the reduction (or elimination) of FSV-type errors in FSV sensitive areas. These results suggest that the CNOP method is suitable for determining sensitive areas in the prediction of the Kuroshio large-meander path.

Portable and Error-Free DNA-Based Data Storage.

PubMed

Yazdi, S M Hossein Tabatabaei; Gabrys, Ryan; Milenkovic, Olgica

2017-07-10

DNA-based data storage is an emerging nonvolatile memory technology of potentially unprecedented density, durability, and replication efficiency. The basic system implementation steps include synthesizing DNA strings that contain user information and subsequently retrieving them via high-throughput sequencing technologies. Existing architectures enable reading and writing but do not offer random-access and error-free data recovery from low-cost, portable devices, which is crucial for making the storage technology competitive with classical recorders. Here we show for the first time that a portable, random-access platform may be implemented in practice using nanopore sequencers. The novelty of our approach is to design an integrated processing pipeline that encodes data to avoid costly synthesis and sequencing errors, enables random access through addressing, and leverages efficient portable sequencing via new iterative alignment and deletion error-correcting codes. Our work represents the only known random access DNA-based data storage system that uses error-prone nanopore sequencers, while still producing error-free readouts with the highest reported information rate/density. As such, it represents a crucial step towards practical employment of DNA molecules as storage media.

Simulation of the Effects of Random Measurement Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinsella, I. A.; Hannaidh, P. B. O.

1978-01-01

Describes a simulation method for measurement of errors that requires calculators and tables of random digits. Each student simulates the random behaviour of the component variables in the function and by combining the results of all students, the outline of the sampling distribution of the function can be obtained. (GA)

Causes of blindness and visual impairment in Pakistan. The Pakistan national blindness and visual impairment survey

PubMed Central

Dineen, B; Bourne, R R A; Jadoon, Z; Shah, S P; Khan, M A; Foster, A; Gilbert, C E; Khan, M D

2007-01-01

Objective To determine the causes of blindness and visual impairment in adults (⩾30 years old) in Pakistan, and to explore socio‐demographic variations in cause. Methods A multi‐stage, stratified, cluster random sampling survey was used to select a nationally representative sample of adults. Each subject was interviewed, had their visual acuity measured and underwent autorefraction and fundus/optic disc examination. Those with a visual acuity of <6/12 in either eye underwent a more detailed ophthalmic examination. Causes of visual impairment were classified according to the accepted World Health Organization (WHO) methodology. An exploration of demographic variables was conducted using regression modeling. Results A sample of 16 507 adults (95.5% of those enumerated) was examined. Cataract was the most common cause of blindness (51.5%; defined as <3/60 in the better eye on presentation) followed by corneal opacity (11.8%), uncorrected aphakia (8.6%) and glaucoma (7.1%). Posterior capsular opacification accounted for 3.6% of blindness. Among the moderately visually impaired (<6/18 to ⩾6/60), refractive error was the most common cause (43%), followed by cataract (42%). Refractive error as a cause of severe visual impairment/blindness was significantly higher in rural dwellers than in urban dwellers (odds ratio (OR) 3.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 11.7). Significant provincial differences were also identified. Overall we estimate that 85.5% of causes were avoidable and that 904 000 adults in Pakistan have cataract (<6/60) requiring surgical intervention. Conclusions This comprehensive survey provides reliable estimates of the causes of blindness and visual impairment in Pakistan. Despite expanded surgical services, cataract still accounts for over half of the cases of blindness in Pakistan. One in eight blind adults has visual loss from sequelae of cataract surgery. Services for refractive errors need to be further expanded and integrated into eye care services, particularly those serving rural populations. PMID:17229806

Systematic and random variations in digital Thematic Mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duggin, M. J. (Principal Investigator); Sakhavat, H.

1985-01-01

Radiance recorded by any remote sensing instrument will contain noise which will consist of both systematic and random variations. Systematic variations may be due to sun-target-sensor geometry, atmospheric conditions, and the interaction of the spectral characteristics of the sensor with those of upwelling radiance. Random variations in the data may be caused by variations in the nature and in the heterogeneity of the ground cover, by variations in atmospheric transmission, and by the interaction of these variations with the sensing device. It is important to be aware of the extent of random and systematic errors in recorded radiance data across ostensibly uniform ground areas in order to assess the impact on quantative image analysis procedures for both the single date and the multidate cases. It is the intention here to examine the systematic and the random variations in digital radiance data recorded in each band by the thematic mapper over crop areas which are ostensibly uniform and which are free from visible cloud.

Fringe projection profilometry with portable consumer devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Danji; Pan, Zhipeng; Wu, Yuxiang; Yue, Huimin

2018-01-01

A fringe projection profilometry (FPP) using portable consumer devices is attractive because it can realize optical three dimensional (3D) measurement for ordinary consumers in their daily lives. We demonstrate a FPP using a camera in a smart mobile phone and a digital consumer mini projector. In our experiment of testing the smart phone (iphone7) camera performance, the rare-facing camera in the iphone7 causes the FPP to have a fringe contrast ratio of 0.546, nonlinear carrier phase aberration value of 0.6 rad, and nonlinear phase error of 0.08 rad and RMS random phase error of 0.033 rad. In contrast, the FPP using the industrial camera has a fringe contrast ratio of 0.715, nonlinear carrier phase aberration value of 0.5 rad, nonlinear phase error of 0.05 rad and RMS random phase error of 0.011 rad. Good performance is achieved by using the FPP composed of an iphone7 and a mini projector. 3D information of a facemask with a size for an adult is also measured by using the FPP that uses portable consumer devices. After the system calibration, the 3D absolute information of the facemask is obtained. The measured results are in good agreement with the ones that are carried out in a traditional way. Our results show that it is possible to use portable consumer devices to construct a good FPP, which is useful for ordinary people to get 3D information in their daily lives.

ICP-Forests (International Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests): Quality Assurance procedure in plant diversity monitoring.

PubMed

Allegrini, Maria-Cristina; Canullo, Roberto; Campetella, Giandiego

2009-04-01

Knowledge of accuracy and precision rates is particularly important for long-term studies. Vegetation assessments include many sources of error related to overlooking and misidentification, that are usually influenced by some factors, such as cover estimate subjectivity, observer biased species lists and experience of the botanist. The vegetation assessment protocol adopted in the Italian forest monitoring programme (CONECOFOR) contains a Quality Assurance programme. The paper presents the different phases of QA, separates the 5 main critical points of the whole protocol as sources of random or systematic errors. Examples of Measurement Quality Objectives (MQOs) expressed as Data Quality Limits (DQLs) are given for vascular plant cover estimates, in order to establish the reproducibility of the data. Quality control activities were used to determine the "distance" between the surveyor teams and the control team. Selected data were acquired during the training and inter-calibration courses. In particular, an index of average cover by species groups was used to evaluate the random error (CV 4%) as the dispersion around the "true values" of the control team. The systematic error in the evaluation of species composition, caused by overlooking or misidentification of species, was calculated following the pseudo-turnover rate; detailed species censuses on smaller sampling units were accepted as the pseudo-turnover which always fell below the 25% established threshold; species density scores recorded at community level (100 m(2) surface) rarely exceeded that limit.

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators for primary prevention in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Akel, Tamer; Lafferty, James

2017-06-01

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) have proved their favorable outcomes on survival in selected patients with cardiomyopathy. Although previous meta-analyses have shown benefit for their use in primary prevention, the evidence remains less robust for patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) in comparison to patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). To evaluate the effect of ICD therapy on reducing all-cause mortality and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with NICM. PubMed (1993-2016), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2000-2016), reference lists of relevant articles, and previous meta-analyses. Search terms included defibrillator, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, randomized controlled trials, and clinical trials. Eligible trials were randomized controlled trials with at least an arm of ICD, an arm of medical therapy and enrolled some patients with NICM. The primary endpoint in the trials should include all-cause mortality or mortality from SCD. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality and mortality from SCD were either extracted or calculated along with their standard errors. Of the 1047 abstracts retained by the initial screen, eight randomized controlled trials were identified. Five of these trials reported relevant data regarding patients with NICM and were subsequently included in this meta-analysis. Pooled analysis of HRs suggested a statistically significant reduction in all-cause mortality among a total of 2573 patients randomized to ICD vs medical therapy (HR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.96; P=.02). Pooled analysis of HRs for mortality from SCD was also statistically significant (n=1677) (HR 0.51; 95% CI, 0.34-0.76; P=.001). ICD implantation is beneficial in terms of all-cause mortality and mortality from SCD in certain subgroups of patients with NICM. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of multiple-eye PIV using mirror array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maekawa, Akiyoshi; Sakakibara, Jun

2018-06-01

In order to reduce particle image velocimetry measurement error, we manufactured an ellipsoidal polyhedral mirror and placed it between a camera and flow target to capture n images of identical particles from n (=80 maximum) different directions. The 3D particle positions were determined from the ensemble average of n C2 intersecting points of a pair of line-of-sight back-projected points from a particle found in any combination of two images in the n images. The method was then applied to a rigid-body rotating flow and a turbulent pipe flow. In the former measurement, bias error and random error fell in a range of  ±0.02 pixels and 0.02–0.05 pixels, respectively; additionally, random error decreased in proportion to . In the latter measurement, in which the measured value was compared to direct numerical simulation, bias error was reduced and random error also decreased in proportion to .

Evaluating Precipitation from Orbital Data Products of TRMM and GPM over the Indian Subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaluxmi, I.; Kumar, D. N.

2015-12-01

The rapidly growing records of microwave based precipitation data made available from various earth observation satellites have instigated a pressing need towards evaluating the associated uncertainty which arise from different sources such as retrieval error, spatial/temporal sampling error and sensor dependent error. Pertaining to microwave remote sensing, most of the studies in literature focus on gridded data products, fewer studies exist on evaluating the uncertainty inherent in orbital data products. Evaluation of the latter are essential as they potentially cause large uncertainties during real time flood forecasting studies especially at the watershed scale. The present study evaluates the uncertainty of precipitation data derived from the orbital data products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite namely the 2A12, 2A25 and 2B31 products. Case study results over the flood prone basin of Mahanadi, India, are analyzed for precipitation uncertainty through these three facets viz., a) Uncertainty quantification using the volumetric metrics from the contingency table [Aghakouchak and Mehran 2014] b) Error characterization using additive and multiplicative error models c) Error decomposition to identify systematic and random errors d) Comparative assessment with the orbital data from GPM mission. The homoscedastic random errors from multiplicative error models justify a better representation of precipitation estimates by the 2A12 algorithm. It can be concluded that although the radiometer derived 2A12 precipitation data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that they are in excellent agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered [Indu and Kumar 2015]. References A. AghaKouchak and A. Mehran (2014), Extended contingency table: Performance metrics for satellite observations and climate model simulations, Water Resources Research, vol. 49, 7144-7149; J. Indu and D. Nagesh Kumar (2015), Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals from Orbital Data Products of TRMM over a Subtropical basin in India, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, in press, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2015.2440338.

Effects of Random Circuit Fabrication Errors on Small Signal Gain and on Output Phase In a Traveling Wave Tube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rittersdorf, I. M.; Antonsen, T. M., Jr.; Chernin, D.; Lau, Y. Y.

2011-10-01

Random fabrication errors may have detrimental effects on the performance of traveling-wave tubes (TWTs) of all types. A new scaling law for the modification in the average small signal gain and in the output phase is derived from the third order ordinary differential equation that governs the forward wave interaction in a TWT in the presence of random error that is distributed along the axis of the tube. Analytical results compare favorably with numerical results, in both gain and phase modifications as a result of random error in the phase velocity of the slow wave circuit. Results on the effect of the reverse-propagating circuit mode will be reported. This work supported by AFOSR, ONR, L-3 Communications Electron Devices, and Northrop Grumman Corporation.

At least some errors are randomly generated (Freud was wrong)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellen, A. J.; Senders, J. W.

1986-01-01

An experiment was carried out to expose something about human error generating mechanisms. In the context of the experiment, an error was made when a subject pressed the wrong key on a computer keyboard or pressed no key at all in the time allotted. These might be considered, respectively, errors of substitution and errors of omission. Each of seven subjects saw a sequence of three digital numbers, made an easily learned binary judgement about each, and was to press the appropriate one of two keys. Each session consisted of 1,000 presentations of randomly permuted, fixed numbers broken into 10 blocks of 100. One of two keys should have been pressed within one second of the onset of each stimulus. These data were subjected to statistical analyses in order to probe the nature of the error generating mechanisms. Goodness of fit tests for a Poisson distribution for the number of errors per 50 trial interval and for an exponential distribution of the length of the intervals between errors were carried out. There is evidence for an endogenous mechanism that may best be described as a random error generator. Furthermore, an item analysis of the number of errors produced per stimulus suggests the existence of a second mechanism operating on task driven factors producing exogenous errors. Some errors, at least, are the result of constant probability generating mechanisms with error rate idiosyncratically determined for each subject.

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2016-01-01

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

FPGA-Based, Self-Checking, Fault-Tolerant Computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Some, Raphael; Rennels, David

2004-01-01

A proposed computer architecture would exploit the capabilities of commercially available field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) to enable computers to detect and recover from bit errors. The main purpose of the proposed architecture is to enable fault-tolerant computing in the presence of single-event upsets (SEUs). [An SEU is a spurious bit flip (also called a soft error) caused by a single impact of ionizing radiation.] The architecture would also enable recovery from some soft errors caused by electrical transients and, to some extent, from intermittent and permanent (hard) errors caused by aging of electronic components. A typical FPGA of the current generation contains one or more complete processor cores, memories, and highspeed serial input/output (I/O) channels, making it possible to shrink a board-level processor node to a single integrated-circuit chip. Custom, highly efficient microcontrollers, general-purpose computers, custom I/O processors, and signal processors can be rapidly and efficiently implemented by use of FPGAs. Unfortunately, FPGAs are susceptible to SEUs. Prior efforts to mitigate the effects of SEUs have yielded solutions that degrade performance of the system and require support from external hardware and software. In comparison with other fault-tolerant- computing architectures (e.g., triple modular redundancy), the proposed architecture could be implemented with less circuitry and lower power demand. Moreover, the fault-tolerant computing functions would require only minimal support from circuitry outside the central processing units (CPUs) of computers, would not require any software support, and would be largely transparent to software and to other computer hardware. There would be two types of modules: a self-checking processor module and a memory system (see figure). The self-checking processor module would be implemented on a single FPGA and would be capable of detecting its own internal errors. It would contain two CPUs executing identical programs in lock step, with comparison of their outputs to detect errors. It would also contain various cache local memory circuits, communication circuits, and configurable special-purpose processors that would use self-checking checkers. (The basic principle of the self-checking checker method is to utilize logic circuitry that generates error signals whenever there is an error in either the checker or the circuit being checked.) The memory system would comprise a main memory and a hardware-controlled check-pointing system (CPS) based on a buffer memory denoted the recovery cache. The main memory would contain random-access memory (RAM) chips and FPGAs that would, in addition to everything else, implement double-error-detecting and single-error-correcting memory functions to enable recovery from single-bit errors.

Using Audit Information to Adjust Parameter Estimates for Data Errors in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Bryan E.; Shaw, Pamela A.; Dodd, Lori E.

2013-01-01

Background Audits are often performed to assess the quality of clinical trial data, but beyond detecting fraud or sloppiness, the audit data is generally ignored. In earlier work using data from a non-randomized study, Shepherd and Yu (2011) developed statistical methods to incorporate audit results into study estimates, and demonstrated that audit data could be used to eliminate bias. Purpose In this manuscript we examine the usefulness of audit-based error-correction methods in clinical trial settings where a continuous outcome is of primary interest. Methods We demonstrate the bias of multiple linear regression estimates in general settings with an outcome that may have errors and a set of covariates for which some may have errors and others, including treatment assignment, are recorded correctly for all subjects. We study this bias under different assumptions including independence between treatment assignment, covariates, and data errors (conceivable in a double-blinded randomized trial) and independence between treatment assignment and covariates but not data errors (possible in an unblinded randomized trial). We review moment-based estimators to incorporate the audit data and propose new multiple imputation estimators. The performance of estimators is studied in simulations. Results When treatment is randomized and unrelated to data errors, estimates of the treatment effect using the original error-prone data (i.e., ignoring the audit results) are unbiased. In this setting, both moment and multiple imputation estimators incorporating audit data are more variable than standard analyses using the original data. In contrast, in settings where treatment is randomized but correlated with data errors and in settings where treatment is not randomized, standard treatment effect estimates will be biased. And in all settings, parameter estimates for the original, error-prone covariates will be biased. Treatment and covariate effect estimates can be corrected by incorporating audit data using either the multiple imputation or moment-based approaches. Bias, precision, and coverage of confidence intervals improve as the audit size increases. Limitations The extent of bias and the performance of methods depend on the extent and nature of the error as well as the size of the audit. This work only considers methods for the linear model. Settings much different than those considered here need further study. Conclusions In randomized trials with continuous outcomes and treatment assignment independent of data errors, standard analyses of treatment effects will be unbiased and are recommended. However, if treatment assignment is correlated with data errors or other covariates, naive analyses may be biased. In these settings, and when covariate effects are of interest, approaches for incorporating audit results should be considered. PMID:22848072

The Combined Effects of Measurement Error and Omitting Confounders in the Single-Mediator Model

PubMed Central

Fritz, Matthew S.; Kenny, David A.; MacKinnon, David P.

2016-01-01

Mediation analysis requires a number of strong assumptions be met in order to make valid causal inferences. Failing to account for violations of these assumptions, such as not modeling measurement error or omitting a common cause of the effects in the model, can bias the parameter estimates of the mediated effect. When the independent variable is perfectly reliable, for example when participants are randomly assigned to levels of treatment, measurement error in the mediator tends to underestimate the mediated effect, while the omission of a confounding variable of the mediator to outcome relation tends to overestimate the mediated effect. Violations of these two assumptions often co-occur, however, in which case the mediated effect could be overestimated, underestimated, or even, in very rare circumstances, unbiased. In order to explore the combined effect of measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model, the impact of each violation on the single-mediator model is first examined individually. Then the combined effect of having measurement error and omitted confounders in the same model is discussed. Throughout, an empirical example is provided to illustrate the effect of violating these assumptions on the mediated effect. PMID:27739903

Social contact patterns can buffer costs of forgetting in the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Stevens, Jeffrey R; Woike, Jan K; Schooler, Lael J; Lindner, Stefan; Pachur, Thorsten

2018-06-13

Analyses of the evolution of cooperation often rely on two simplifying assumptions: (i) individuals interact equally frequently with all social network members and (ii) they accurately remember each partner's past cooperation or defection. Here, we examine how more realistic, skewed patterns of contact-in which individuals interact primarily with only a subset of their network's members-influence cooperation. In addition, we test whether skewed contact patterns can counteract the decrease in cooperation caused by memory errors (i.e. forgetting). Finally, we compare two types of memory error that vary in whether forgotten interactions are replaced with random actions or with actions from previous encounters. We use evolutionary simulations of repeated prisoner's dilemma games that vary agents' contact patterns, forgetting rates and types of memory error. We find that highly skewed contact patterns foster cooperation and also buffer the detrimental effects of forgetting. The type of memory error used also influences cooperation rates. Our findings reveal previously neglected but important roles of contact pattern, type of memory error and the interaction of contact pattern and memory on cooperation. Although cognitive limitations may constrain the evolution of cooperation, social contact patterns can counteract some of these constraints. © 2018 The Author(s).

HyDEn: A Hybrid Steganocryptographic Approach for Data Encryption Using Randomized Error-Correcting DNA Codes

PubMed Central

Regoui, Chaouki; Durand, Guillaume; Belliveau, Luc; Léger, Serge

2013-01-01

This paper presents a novel hybrid DNA encryption (HyDEn) approach that uses randomized assignments of unique error-correcting DNA Hamming code words for single characters in the extended ASCII set. HyDEn relies on custom-built quaternary codes and a private key used in the randomized assignment of code words and the cyclic permutations applied on the encoded message. Along with its ability to detect and correct errors, HyDEn equals or outperforms existing cryptographic methods and represents a promising in silico DNA steganographic approach. PMID:23984392

Random Error in Judgment: The Contribution of Encoding and Retrieval Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pleskac, Timothy J.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Rivadeneira, A. Walkyria; Wallsten, Thomas S.

2009-01-01

Theories of confidence judgments have embraced the role random error plays in influencing responses. An important next step is to identify the source(s) of these random effects. To do so, we used the stochastic judgment model (SJM) to distinguish the contribution of encoding and retrieval processes. In particular, we investigated whether dividing…

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

A novel optical fiber displacement sensor of wider measurement range based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yuan; Dai, Xue Feng; Wang, Yu Tian

2006-02-01

By studying on the output characteristics of random type optical fiber sensor and semicircular type optical fiber sensor, the ratio of the two output signals was used as the output signal of the whole system. Then the measurement range was enlarged, the linearity was improved, and the errors of reflective and absorbent changing of target surface are automatically compensated. Meantime, an optical fiber sensor model of correcting static error based on BP artificial neural network(ANN) is set up. So the intrinsic errors such as effects of fluctuations in the light, circuit excursion, the intensity losses in the fiber lines and the additional losses in the receiving fiber caused by bends are eliminated. By discussing in theory and experiment, the error of nonlinear is 2.9%, the measuring range reaches to 5-6mm and the relative accuracy is 2%.And this sensor has such characteristics as no electromagnetic interference, simple construction, high sensitivity, good accuracy and stability. Also the multi-point sensor system can be used to on-line and non-touch monitor in working locales.

The intention to disclose medical errors among doctors in a referral hospital in North Malaysia.

PubMed

Hs, Arvinder-Singh; Rashid, Abdul

2017-01-23

In this study, medical errors are defined as unintentional patient harm caused by a doctor's mistake. This topic, due to limited research, is poorly understood in Malaysia. The objective of this study was to determine the proportion of doctors intending to disclose medical errors, and their attitudes/perception pertaining to medical errors. This cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary public hospital from July- December 2015 among 276 randomly selected doctors. Data was collected using a standardized and validated self-administered questionnaire intending to measure disclosure and attitudes/perceptions. The scale had four vignettes in total two medical and two surgical. Each vignette consisted of five questions and each question measured the disclosure. Disclosure was categorised as "No Disclosure", "Partial Disclosure" or "Full Disclosure". Data was keyed in and analysed using STATA v 13.0. Only 10.1% (n = 28) intended to disclose medical errors. Most respondents felt that they possessed an attitude/perception of adequately disclosing errors to patients. There was a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) when comparing the intention of disclosure with perceived disclosures. Most respondents were in common agreement that disclosing an error would make them less likely to get sued, that minor errors should be reported and that they experienced relief from disclosing errors. Most doctors in this study would not disclose medical errors although they perceived that the errors were serious and felt responsible for it. Poor disclosure could be due the fear of litigations and improper mechanisms/procedures available for disclosure.

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

Calculating radiotherapy margins based on Bayesian modelling of patient specific random errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herschtal, A.; te Marvelde, L.; Mengersen, K.; Hosseinifard, Z.; Foroudi, F.; Devereux, T.; Pham, D.; Ball, D.; Greer, P. B.; Pichler, P.; Eade, T.; Kneebone, A.; Bell, L.; Caine, H.; Hindson, B.; Kron, T.

2015-02-01

Collected real-life clinical target volume (CTV) displacement data show that some patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) demonstrate significantly more fraction-to-fraction variability in their displacement (‘random error’) than others. This contrasts with the common assumption made by historical recipes for margin estimation for EBRT, that the random error is constant across patients. In this work we present statistical models of CTV displacements in which random errors are characterised by an inverse gamma (IG) distribution in order to assess the impact of random error variability on CTV-to-PTV margin widths, for eight real world patient cohorts from four institutions, and for different sites of malignancy. We considered a variety of clinical treatment requirements and penumbral widths. The eight cohorts consisted of a total of 874 patients and 27 391 treatment sessions. Compared to a traditional margin recipe that assumes constant random errors across patients, for a typical 4 mm penumbral width, the IG based margin model mandates that in order to satisfy the common clinical requirement that 90% of patients receive at least 95% of prescribed RT dose to the entire CTV, margins be increased by a median of 10% (range over the eight cohorts -19% to +35%). This substantially reduces the proportion of patients for whom margins are too small to satisfy clinical requirements.

Refractive Error Study in Children: results from Mechi Zone, Nepal.

PubMed

Pokharel, G P; Negrel, A D; Munoz, S R; Ellwein, L B

2000-04-01

To assess the prevalence of refractive error and vision impairment in school age children in the terai area of the Mechi zone in Eastern Nepal. Random selection of village-based clusters was used to identify a sample of children 5 to 15 years of age. Children in the 25 selected clusters were enumerated through a door-to-door household survey and invited to village sites for examination. Visual acuity measurements, cycloplegic retinoscopy, cycloplegic autorefraction, ocular motility evaluation, and anterior segment, media, and fundus examinations were done from May 1998 through July 1998. Independent replicate examinations for quality assurance monitoring took place in all children with reduced vision and in a sample of those with normal vision in seven villages. A total of 5,526 children from 3,724 households were enumerated, and 5,067 children (91.7%) were examined. The prevalence of uncorrected, presenting, and best visual acuity 0.5 (20/40) or worse in at least one eye was 2.9%, 2.8%, and 1.4%, respectively; 0.4% had best visual acuity 0.5 or worse in both eyes. Refractive error was the cause in 56% of the 200 eyes with reduced uncorrected vision, amblyopia in 9%, other causes in 19%, with unexplained causes in the remaining 16%. Myopia -0.5 diopter or less in either eye or hyperopia 2 diopters or greater was observed in less than 3% of children. Hyperopia risk was associated with female gender and myopia risk with older age. The prevalence of reduced vision is very low in school-age children in Nepal, most of it because of correctable refractive error. Further studies are needed to determine whether the prevalence of myopia will be higher for more recent birth cohorts.

Cirrus Cloud Retrieval Using Infrared Sounding Data: Multilevel Cloud Errors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, Bryan A.; Wielicki, Bruce A.

1994-01-01

In this study we perform an error analysis for cloud-top pressure retrieval using the High-Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2) 15-µm CO2 channels for the two-layer case of transmissive cirrus overlying an overcast, opaque stratiform cloud. This analysis includes standard deviation and bias error due to instrument noise and the presence of two cloud layers, the lower of which is opaque. Instantaneous cloud pressure retrieval errors are determined for a range of cloud amounts (0.1 1.0) and cloud-top pressures (850250 mb). Large cloud-top pressure retrieval errors are found to occur when a lower opaque layer is present underneath an upper transmissive cloud layer in the satellite field of view (FOV). Errors tend to increase with decreasing upper-cloud elective cloud amount and with decreasing cloud height (increasing pressure). Errors in retrieved upper-cloud pressure result in corresponding errors in derived effective cloud amount. For the case in which a HIRS FOV has two distinct cloud layers, the difference between the retrieved and actual cloud-top pressure is positive in all casts, meaning that the retrieved upper-cloud height is lower than the actual upper-cloud height. In addition, errors in retrieved cloud pressure are found to depend upon the lapse rate between the low-level cloud top and the surface. We examined which sounder channel combinations would minimize the total errors in derived cirrus cloud height caused by instrument noise and by the presence of a lower-level cloud. We find that while the sounding channels that peak between 700 and 1000 mb minimize random errors, the sounding channels that peak at 300—500 mb minimize bias errors. For a cloud climatology, the bias errors are most critical.

Particle Tracking on the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dell, G. F.

1986-08-07

Tracking studies including the effects of random multipole errors as well as the effects of random and systematic multipole errors have been made for RHIC. Initial results for operating at an off diagonal working point are discussed.

Causes of low vision and blindness in rural Indonesia

PubMed Central

Saw, S-M; Husain, R; Gazzard, G M; Koh, D; Widjaja, D; Tan, D T H

2003-01-01

Aim: To determine the prevalence rates and major contributing causes of low vision and blindness in adults in a rural setting in Indonesia Methods: A population based prevalence survey of adults 21 years or older (n=989) was conducted in five rural villages and one provincial town in Sumatra, Indonesia. One stage household cluster sampling procedure was employed where 100 households were randomly selected from each village or town. Bilateral low vision was defined as habitual VA (measured using tumbling “E” logMAR charts) in the better eye worse than 6/18 and 3/60 or better, based on the WHO criteria. Bilateral blindness was defined as habitual VA worse than 3/60 in the better eye. The anterior segment and lens of subjects with low vision or blindness (both unilateral and bilateral) (n=66) were examined using a portable slit lamp and fundus examination was performed using indirect ophthalmoscopy. Results: The overall age adjusted (adjusted to the 1990 Indonesia census population) prevalence rate of bilateral low vision was 5.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2 to 7.4) and bilateral blindness was 2.2% (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2). The rates of low vision and blindness increased with age. The major contributing causes for bilateral low vision were cataract (61.3%), uncorrected refractive error (12.9%), and amblyopia (12.9%), and the major cause of bilateral blindness was cataract (62.5%). The major causes of unilateral low vision were cataract (48.0%) and uncorrected refractive error (12.0%), and major causes of unilateral blindness were amblyopia (50.0%) and trauma (50.0%). Conclusions: The rates of habitual low vision and blindness in provincial Sumatra, Indonesia, are similar to other developing rural countries in Asia. Blindness is largely preventable, as the major contributing causes (cataract and uncorrected refractive error) are amenable to treatment. PMID:12928268

Randomly auditing research labs could be an affordable way to improve research quality: A simulation study

PubMed Central

Zardo, Pauline; Graves, Nicholas

2018-01-01

The “publish or perish” incentive drives many researchers to increase the quantity of their papers at the cost of quality. Lowering quality increases the number of false positive errors which is a key cause of the reproducibility crisis. We adapted a previously published simulation of the research world where labs that produce many papers are more likely to have “child” labs that inherit their characteristics. This selection creates a competitive spiral that favours quantity over quality. To try to halt the competitive spiral we added random audits that could detect and remove labs with a high proportion of false positives, and also improved the behaviour of “child” and “parent” labs who increased their effort and so lowered their probability of making a false positive error. Without auditing, only 0.2% of simulations did not experience the competitive spiral, defined by a convergence to the highest possible false positive probability. Auditing 1.35% of papers avoided the competitive spiral in 71% of simulations, and auditing 1.94% of papers in 95% of simulations. Audits worked best when they were only applied to established labs with 50 or more papers compared with labs with 25 or more papers. Adding a ±20% random error to the number of false positives to simulate peer reviewer error did not reduce the audits’ efficacy. The main benefit of the audits was via the increase in effort in “child” and “parent” labs. Audits improved the literature by reducing the number of false positives from 30.2 per 100 papers to 12.3 per 100 papers. Auditing 1.94% of papers would cost an estimated $15.9 million per year if applied to papers produced by National Institutes of Health funding. Our simulation greatly simplifies the research world and there are many unanswered questions about if and how audits would work that can only be addressed by a trial of an audit. PMID:29649314

Randomly auditing research labs could be an affordable way to improve research quality: A simulation study.

PubMed

Barnett, Adrian G; Zardo, Pauline; Graves, Nicholas

2018-01-01

The "publish or perish" incentive drives many researchers to increase the quantity of their papers at the cost of quality. Lowering quality increases the number of false positive errors which is a key cause of the reproducibility crisis. We adapted a previously published simulation of the research world where labs that produce many papers are more likely to have "child" labs that inherit their characteristics. This selection creates a competitive spiral that favours quantity over quality. To try to halt the competitive spiral we added random audits that could detect and remove labs with a high proportion of false positives, and also improved the behaviour of "child" and "parent" labs who increased their effort and so lowered their probability of making a false positive error. Without auditing, only 0.2% of simulations did not experience the competitive spiral, defined by a convergence to the highest possible false positive probability. Auditing 1.35% of papers avoided the competitive spiral in 71% of simulations, and auditing 1.94% of papers in 95% of simulations. Audits worked best when they were only applied to established labs with 50 or more papers compared with labs with 25 or more papers. Adding a ±20% random error to the number of false positives to simulate peer reviewer error did not reduce the audits' efficacy. The main benefit of the audits was via the increase in effort in "child" and "parent" labs. Audits improved the literature by reducing the number of false positives from 30.2 per 100 papers to 12.3 per 100 papers. Auditing 1.94% of papers would cost an estimated $15.9 million per year if applied to papers produced by National Institutes of Health funding. Our simulation greatly simplifies the research world and there are many unanswered questions about if and how audits would work that can only be addressed by a trial of an audit.

Simulation of wave propagation in three-dimensional random media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coles, William A.; Filice, J. P.; Frehlich, R. G.; Yadlowsky, M.

1993-01-01

Quantitative error analysis for simulation of wave propagation in three dimensional random media assuming narrow angular scattering are presented for the plane wave and spherical wave geometry. This includes the errors resulting from finite grid size, finite simulation dimensions, and the separation of the two-dimensional screens along the propagation direction. Simple error scalings are determined for power-law spectra of the random refractive index of the media. The effects of a finite inner scale are also considered. The spatial spectra of the intensity errors are calculated and compared to the spatial spectra of intensity. The numerical requirements for a simulation of given accuracy are determined for realizations of the field. The numerical requirements for accurate estimation of higher moments of the field are less stringent.

Do the methods used to analyse missing data really matter? An examination of data from an observational study of Intermediate Care patients.

PubMed

Kaambwa, Billingsley; Bryan, Stirling; Billingham, Lucinda

2012-06-27

Missing data is a common statistical problem in healthcare datasets from populations of older people. Some argue that arbitrarily assuming the mechanism responsible for the missingness and therefore the method for dealing with this missingness is not the best option-but is this always true? This paper explores what happens when extra information that suggests that a particular mechanism is responsible for missing data is disregarded and methods for dealing with the missing data are chosen arbitrarily. Regression models based on 2,533 intermediate care (IC) patients from the largest evaluation of IC done and published in the UK to date were used to explain variation in costs, EQ-5D and Barthel index. Three methods for dealing with missingness were utilised, each assuming a different mechanism as being responsible for the missing data: complete case analysis (assuming missing completely at random-MCAR), multiple imputation (assuming missing at random-MAR) and Heckman selection model (assuming missing not at random-MNAR). Differences in results were gauged by examining the signs of coefficients as well as the sizes of both coefficients and associated standard errors. Extra information strongly suggested that missing cost data were MCAR. The results show that MCAR and MAR-based methods yielded similar results with sizes of most coefficients and standard errors differing by less than 3.4% while those based on MNAR-methods were statistically different (up to 730% bigger). Significant variables in all regression models also had the same direction of influence on costs. All three mechanisms of missingness were shown to be potential causes of the missing EQ-5D and Barthel data. The method chosen to deal with missing data did not seem to have any significant effect on the results for these data as they led to broadly similar conclusions with sizes of coefficients and standard errors differing by less than 54% and 322%, respectively. Arbitrary selection of methods to deal with missing data should be avoided. Using extra information gathered during the data collection exercise about the cause of missingness to guide this selection would be more appropriate.

Error Distribution Evaluation of the Third Vanishing Point Based on Random Statistical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.

2012-07-01

POS, integrated by GPS / INS (Inertial Navigation Systems), has allowed rapid and accurate determination of position and attitude of remote sensing equipment for MMS (Mobile Mapping Systems). However, not only does INS have system error, but also it is very expensive. Therefore, in this paper error distributions of vanishing points are studied and tested in order to substitute INS for MMS in some special land-based scene, such as ground façade where usually only two vanishing points can be detected. Thus, the traditional calibration approach based on three orthogonal vanishing points is being challenged. In this article, firstly, the line clusters, which parallel to each others in object space and correspond to the vanishing points, are detected based on RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus) and parallelism geometric constraint. Secondly, condition adjustment with parameters is utilized to estimate nonlinear error equations of two vanishing points (VX, VY). How to set initial weights for the adjustment solution of single image vanishing points is presented. Solving vanishing points and estimating their error distributions base on iteration method with variable weights, co-factor matrix and error ellipse theory. Thirdly, under the condition of known error ellipses of two vanishing points (VX, VY) and on the basis of the triangle geometric relationship of three vanishing points, the error distribution of the third vanishing point (VZ) is calculated and evaluated by random statistical simulation with ignoring camera distortion. Moreover, Monte Carlo methods utilized for random statistical estimation are presented. Finally, experimental results of vanishing points coordinate and their error distributions are shown and analyzed.

Influence of uncorrected refractive error and unmet refractive error on visual impairment in a Brazilian population.

PubMed

Ferraz, Fabio H; Corrente, José E; Opromolla, Paula; Schellini, Silvana A

2014-06-25

The World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of blindness and visual impairment are widely based on best-corrected visual acuity excluding uncorrected refractive errors (URE) as a visual impairment cause. Recently, URE was included as a cause of visual impairment, thus emphasizing the burden of visual impairment due to refractive error (RE) worldwide is substantially higher. The purpose of the present study is to determine the reversal of visual impairment and blindness in the population correcting RE and possible associations between RE and individual characteristics. A cross-sectional study was conducted in nine counties of the western region of state of São Paulo, using systematic and random sampling of households between March 2004 and July 2005. Individuals aged more than 1 year old were included and were evaluated for demographic data, eye complaints, history, and eye exam, including no corrected visual acuity (NCVA), best corrected vision acuity (BCVA), automatic and manual refractive examination. The definition adopted for URE was applied to individuals with NCVA > 0.15 logMAR and BCVA ≤ 0.15 logMAR after refractive correction and unmet refractive error (UREN), individuals who had visual impairment or blindness (NCVA > 0.5 logMAR) and BCVA ≤ 0.5 logMAR after optical correction. A total of 70.2% of subjects had normal NCVA. URE was detected in 13.8%. Prevalence of 4.6% of optically reversible low vision and 1.8% of blindness reversible by optical correction were found. UREN was detected in 6.5% of individuals, more frequently observed in women over the age of 50 and in higher RE carriers. Visual impairment related to eye diseases is not reversible with spectacles. Using multivariate analysis, associations between URE and UREN with regard to sex, age and RE was observed. RE is an important cause of reversible blindness and low vision in the Brazilian population.

Influence of uncorrected refractive error and unmet refractive error on visual impairment in a Brazilian population

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of blindness and visual impairment are widely based on best-corrected visual acuity excluding uncorrected refractive errors (URE) as a visual impairment cause. Recently, URE was included as a cause of visual impairment, thus emphasizing the burden of visual impairment due to refractive error (RE) worldwide is substantially higher. The purpose of the present study is to determine the reversal of visual impairment and blindness in the population correcting RE and possible associations between RE and individual characteristics. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in nine counties of the western region of state of São Paulo, using systematic and random sampling of households between March 2004 and July 2005. Individuals aged more than 1 year old were included and were evaluated for demographic data, eye complaints, history, and eye exam, including no corrected visual acuity (NCVA), best corrected vision acuity (BCVA), automatic and manual refractive examination. The definition adopted for URE was applied to individuals with NCVA > 0.15 logMAR and BCVA ≤ 0.15 logMAR after refractive correction and unmet refractive error (UREN), individuals who had visual impairment or blindness (NCVA > 0.5 logMAR) and BCVA ≤ 0.5 logMAR after optical correction. Results A total of 70.2% of subjects had normal NCVA. URE was detected in 13.8%. Prevalence of 4.6% of optically reversible low vision and 1.8% of blindness reversible by optical correction were found. UREN was detected in 6.5% of individuals, more frequently observed in women over the age of 50 and in higher RE carriers. Visual impairment related to eye diseases is not reversible with spectacles. Using multivariate analysis, associations between URE and UREN with regard to sex, age and RE was observed. Conclusion RE is an important cause of reversible blindness and low vision in the Brazilian population. PMID:24965318

Accuracy of Robotic Radiosurgical Liver Treatment Throughout the Respiratory Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, Jeff D.; Wong, Raimond; Swaminath, Anand

Purpose: To quantify random uncertainties in robotic radiosurgical treatment of liver lesions with real-time respiratory motion management. Methods and Materials: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 27 liver cancer patients treated with robotic radiosurgery over 118 fractions. The robotic radiosurgical system uses orthogonal x-ray images to determine internal target position and correlates this position with an external surrogate to provide robotic corrections of linear accelerator positioning. Verification and update of this internal–external correlation model was achieved using periodic x-ray images collected throughout treatment. To quantify random uncertainties in targeting, we analyzed logged tracking information and isolated x-ray images collected immediately beforemore » beam delivery. For translational correlation errors, we quantified the difference between correlation model–estimated target position and actual position determined by periodic x-ray imaging. To quantify prediction errors, we computed the mean absolute difference between the predicted coordinates and actual modeled position calculated 115 milliseconds later. We estimated overall random uncertainty by quadratically summing correlation, prediction, and end-to-end targeting errors. We also investigated relationships between tracking errors and motion amplitude using linear regression. Results: The 95th percentile absolute correlation errors in each direction were 2.1 mm left–right, 1.8 mm anterior–posterior, 3.3 mm cranio–caudal, and 3.9 mm 3-dimensional radial, whereas 95th percentile absolute radial prediction errors were 0.5 mm. Overall 95th percentile random uncertainty was 4 mm in the radial direction. Prediction errors were strongly correlated with modeled target amplitude (r=0.53-0.66, P<.001), whereas only weak correlations existed for correlation errors. Conclusions: Study results demonstrate that model correlation errors are the primary random source of uncertainty in Cyberknife liver treatment and, unlike prediction errors, are not strongly correlated with target motion amplitude. Aggregate 3-dimensional radial position errors presented here suggest the target will be within 4 mm of the target volume for 95% of the beam delivery.« less

Refractive error and visual impairment in private school children in Ghana.

PubMed

Kumah, Ben D; Ebri, Anne; Abdul-Kabir, Mohammed; Ahmed, Abdul-Sadik; Koomson, Nana Ya; Aikins, Samual; Aikins, Amos; Amedo, Angela; Lartey, Seth; Naidoo, Kovin

2013-12-01

To assess the prevalence of refractive error and visual impairment in private school children in Ghana. A random selection of geographically defined classes in clusters was used to identify a sample of school children aged 12 to 15 years in the Ashanti Region. Children in 60 clusters were enumerated and examined in classrooms. The examination included visual acuity, retinoscopy, autorefraction under cycloplegia, and examination of anterior segment, media, and fundus. For quality assurance, a random sample of children with reduced and normal vision were selected and re-examined independently. A total of 2454 children attending 53 private schools were enumerated, and of these, 2435 (99.2%) were examined. Prevalence of uncorrected, presenting, and best visual acuity of 20/40 or worse in the better eye was 3.7, 3.5, and 0.4%, respectively. Refractive error was the cause of reduced vision in 71.7% of 152 eyes, amblyopia in 9.9%, retinal disorders in 5.9%, and corneal opacity in 4.6%. Exterior and anterior segment abnormalities occurred in 43 (1.8%) children. Myopia (at least -0.50 D) in one or both eyes was present in 3.2% of children when measured with retinoscopy and in 3.4% measured with autorefraction. Myopia was not significantly associated with gender (P = 0.82). Hyperopia (+2.00 D or more) in at least one eye was present in 0.3% of children with retinoscopy and autorefraction. The prevalence of reduced vision in Ghanaian private school children due to uncorrected refractive error was low. However, the prevalence of amblyopia, retinal disorders, and corneal opacities indicate the need for early interventions.

TOGA/COARE AMMR 1992 data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kunkee, D. B.

1994-01-01

The complete set of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA)/Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) flight data for the 91.65 GHz Airborne Meteorological Radiometer (AMMR92) contains data from nineteen flights: two test flights, four transit flights, and thirteen experimental flights. The data flight occurred between December 16, 1992 and February 28, 1993. Data collection from the AMMR92 during the first ten flights of TOGA/COARE was performed using the executable code TSK30041. These are IBM PC/XT programs used by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). During one flight, inconsistencies were found during the operation of the AMMR92 using the GSFC data acquisition system. Consequently, the Georgia Tech (GT) data acquisition system was used during all successive TOGA/COARE flights. These inconsistencies were found during the data processing to affect the recorded data as well. Errors are caused by an insufficient pre- and post-calibration setting period for the splash-plate mechanism. The splash-plate operates asynchronusly with the data acquisition system (there is no position feedback to the GSFC or GT data system). This condition caused both the calibration and the post-calibration scene measurement to be corrupted on a randomly occurring basis when the GSFC system was used. This problem did not occur with the GT data acquisition system due to sufficient allowance for splash-plate settling. After TOGA/COARE it was determined that calibration of the instrument was a function of the scene brightness temperature. Therefore, the orientation error in the main antenna beam of the AMMR92 is hypothesized to be caused by misalignment of the internal 'splash-plate' responsible for directing the antenna beam toward the scene or toward the calibration loads. Misalignment of the splash-plate is responsible for 'scene feedthrough' during calibration. Laboratory investigation at Georgia Tech found that each polarization is affected differently by the splash-plate alignment error. This is likely to cause significant and unique errors in the absolute calibration of each channel.

TOGA/COARE AMMR 1992 data processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkee, D. B.

1994-05-01

The complete set of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA)/Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) flight data for the 91.65 GHz Airborne Meteorological Radiometer (AMMR92) contains data from nineteen flights: two test flights, four transit flights, and thirteen experimental flights. The data flight occurred between December 16, 1992 and February 28, 1993. Data collection from the AMMR92 during the first ten flights of TOGA/COARE was performed using the executable code TSK30041. These are IBM PC/XT programs used by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). During one flight, inconsistencies were found during the operation of the AMMR92 using the GSFC data acquisition system. Consequently, the Georgia Tech (GT) data acquisition system was used during all successive TOGA/COARE flights. These inconsistencies were found during the data processing to affect the recorded data as well. Errors are caused by an insufficient pre- and post-calibration setting period for the splash-plate mechanism. The splash-plate operates asynchronusly with the data acquisition system (there is no position feedback to the GSFC or GT data system). This condition caused both the calibration and the post-calibration scene measurement to be corrupted on a randomly occurring basis when the GSFC system was used. This problem did not occur with the GT data acquisition system due to sufficient allowance for splash-plate settling. After TOGA/COARE it was determined that calibration of the instrument was a function of the scene brightness temperature. Therefore, the orientation error in the main antenna beam of the AMMR92 is hypothesized to be caused by misalignment of the internal 'splash-plate' responsible for directing the antenna beam toward the scene or toward the calibration loads. Misalignment of the splash-plate is responsible for 'scene feedthrough' during calibration. Laboratory investigation at Georgia Tech found that each polarization is affected differently by the splash-plate alignment error. This is likely to cause significant and unique errors in the absolute calibration of each channel.

Gossip and Distributed Kalman Filtering: Weak Consensus Under Weak Detectability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, Soummya; Moura, José M. F.

2011-04-01

The paper presents the gossip interactive Kalman filter (GIKF) for distributed Kalman filtering for networked systems and sensor networks, where inter-sensor communication and observations occur at the same time-scale. The communication among sensors is random; each sensor occasionally exchanges its filtering state information with a neighbor depending on the availability of the appropriate network link. We show that under a weak distributed detectability condition: 1. the GIKF error process remains stochastically bounded, irrespective of the instability properties of the random process dynamics; and 2. the network achieves \\emph{weak consensus}, i.e., the conditional estimation error covariance at a (uniformly) randomly selected sensor converges in distribution to a unique invariant measure on the space of positive semi-definite matrices (independent of the initial state.) To prove these results, we interpret the filtered states (estimates and error covariances) at each node in the GIKF as stochastic particles with local interactions. We analyze the asymptotic properties of the error process by studying as a random dynamical system the associated switched (random) Riccati equation, the switching being dictated by a non-stationary Markov chain on the network graph.

What errors do peer reviewers detect, and does training improve their ability to detect them?

PubMed

Schroter, Sara; Black, Nick; Evans, Stephen; Godlee, Fiona; Osorio, Lyda; Smith, Richard

2008-10-01

To analyse data from a trial and report the frequencies with which major and minor errors are detected at a general medical journal, the types of errors missed and the impact of training on error detection. 607 peer reviewers at the BMJ were randomized to two intervention groups receiving different types of training (face-to-face training or a self-taught package) and a control group. Each reviewer was sent the same three test papers over the study period, each of which had nine major and five minor methodological errors inserted. BMJ peer reviewers. The quality of review, assessed using a validated instrument, and the number and type of errors detected before and after training. The number of major errors detected varied over the three papers. The interventions had small effects. At baseline (Paper 1) reviewers found an average of 2.58 of the nine major errors, with no notable difference between the groups. The mean number of errors reported was similar for the second and third papers, 2.71 and 3.0, respectively. Biased randomization was the error detected most frequently in all three papers, with over 60% of reviewers rejecting the papers identifying this error. Reviewers who did not reject the papers found fewer errors and the proportion finding biased randomization was less than 40% for each paper. Editors should not assume that reviewers will detect most major errors, particularly those concerned with the context of study. Short training packages have only a slight impact on improving error detection.

An analytic technique for statistically modeling random atomic clock errors in estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fell, P. J.

1981-01-01

Minimum variance estimation requires that the statistics of random observation errors be modeled properly. If measurements are derived through the use of atomic frequency standards, then one source of error affecting the observable is random fluctuation in frequency. This is the case, for example, with range and integrated Doppler measurements from satellites of the Global Positioning and baseline determination for geodynamic applications. An analytic method is presented which approximates the statistics of this random process. The procedure starts with a model of the Allan variance for a particular oscillator and develops the statistics of range and integrated Doppler measurements. A series of five first order Markov processes is used to approximate the power spectral density obtained from the Allan variance.

Effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies: Implications for correlations, ANOVA, linear regression, factor analysis, and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Salvendy, Gavriel

2009-05-01

This paper aims to demonstrate the effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies. A variety of sources can cause random measurement errors in ergonomics studies and these errors can distort virtually every statistic computed and lead investigators to erroneous conclusions. The effects of measurement errors on five most widely used statistical analysis tools have been discussed and illustrated: correlation; ANOVA; linear regression; factor analysis; linear discriminant analysis. It has been shown that measurement errors can greatly attenuate correlations between variables, reduce statistical power of ANOVA, distort (overestimate, underestimate or even change the sign of) regression coefficients, underrate the explanation contributions of the most important factors in factor analysis and depreciate the significance of discriminant function and discrimination abilities of individual variables in discrimination analysis. The discussions will be restricted to subjective scales and survey methods and their reliability estimates. Other methods applied in ergonomics research, such as physical and electrophysiological measurements and chemical and biomedical analysis methods, also have issues of measurement errors, but they are beyond the scope of this paper. As there has been increasing interest in the development and testing of theories in ergonomics research, it has become very important for ergonomics researchers to understand the effects of measurement errors on their experiment results, which the authors believe is very critical to research progress in theory development and cumulative knowledge in the ergonomics field.

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation: Plans and Preparations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwaller, M.; Bidwell, S.; Durning, F. J.; Smith, E.

2004-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program is an international partnership led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydro-meteorological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation across the globe. This paper describes the concept, the planning, and the preparations for Ground Validation within the GPM program. Ground Validation (GV) plays an important role in the program by investigating and quantitatively assessing the errors within the satellite retrievals. These quantitative estimates of retrieval errors will assist the scientific community by bounding the errors within their research products. The two fundamental requirements of the GPM Ground Validation program are: (1) error characterization of the precipitation retrievals and (2) continual improvement of the satellite retrieval algorithms. These two driving requirements determine the measurements, instrumentation, and location for ground observations. This paper outlines GV plans for estimating the systematic and random components of retrieval error and for characterizing the spatial p d temporal structure of the error and plans for algorithm improvement in which error models are developed and experimentally explored to uncover the physical causes of errors within the retrievals. This paper discusses NASA locations for GV measurements as well as anticipated locations from international GPM partners. NASA's primary locations for validation measurements are an oceanic site at Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and a continental site in north-central Oklahoma at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program site.

Preparations for Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM)Ground Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bidwell, S. W.; Bibyk, I. K.; Duming, J. F.; Everett, D. F.; Smith, E. A.; Wolff, D. B.

2004-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) program is an international partnership led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM will improve climate, weather, and hydro-meterorological forecasts through more frequent and more accurate measurement of precipitation across the globe. This paper describes the concept and the preparations for Ground Validation within the GPM program. Ground Validation (GV) plays a critical role in the program by investigating and quantitatively assessing the errors within the satellite retrievals. These quantitative estimates of retrieval errors will assist the scientific community by bounding the errors within their research products. The two fundamental requirements of the GPM Ground Validation program are: (1) error characterization of the precipitation retrievals and (2) continual improvement of the satellite retrieval algorithms. These two driving requirements determine the measurements, instrumentation, and location for ground observations. This paper describes GV plans for estimating the systematic and random components of retrieval error and for characterizing the spatial and temporal structure of the error. This paper describes the GPM program for algorithm improvement in which error models are developed and experimentally explored to uncover the physical causes of errors within the retrievals. GPM will ensure that information gained through Ground Validation is applied to future improvements in the spaceborne retrieval algorithms. This paper discusses the potential locations for validation measurement and research, the anticipated contributions of GPM's international partners, and the interaction of Ground Validation with other GPM program elements.

Reducing Bias and Error in the Correlation Coefficient Due to Nonnormality.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2015-10-01

It is more common for educational and psychological data to be nonnormal than to be approximately normal. This tendency may lead to bias and error in point estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient. In a series of Monte Carlo simulations, the Pearson correlation was examined under conditions of normal and nonnormal data, and it was compared with its major alternatives, including the Spearman rank-order correlation, the bootstrap estimate, the Box-Cox transformation family, and a general normalizing transformation (i.e., rankit), as well as to various bias adjustments. Nonnormality caused the correlation coefficient to be inflated by up to +.14, particularly when the nonnormality involved heavy-tailed distributions. Traditional bias adjustments worsened this problem, further inflating the estimate. The Spearman and rankit correlations eliminated this inflation and provided conservative estimates. Rankit also minimized random error for most sample sizes, except for the smallest samples ( n = 10), where bootstrapping was more effective. Overall, results justify the use of carefully chosen alternatives to the Pearson correlation when normality is violated.

Reducing Bias and Error in the Correlation Coefficient Due to Nonnormality

PubMed Central

Hittner, James B.

2014-01-01

It is more common for educational and psychological data to be nonnormal than to be approximately normal. This tendency may lead to bias and error in point estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient. In a series of Monte Carlo simulations, the Pearson correlation was examined under conditions of normal and nonnormal data, and it was compared with its major alternatives, including the Spearman rank-order correlation, the bootstrap estimate, the Box–Cox transformation family, and a general normalizing transformation (i.e., rankit), as well as to various bias adjustments. Nonnormality caused the correlation coefficient to be inflated by up to +.14, particularly when the nonnormality involved heavy-tailed distributions. Traditional bias adjustments worsened this problem, further inflating the estimate. The Spearman and rankit correlations eliminated this inflation and provided conservative estimates. Rankit also minimized random error for most sample sizes, except for the smallest samples (n = 10), where bootstrapping was more effective. Overall, results justify the use of carefully chosen alternatives to the Pearson correlation when normality is violated. PMID:29795841

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network.

PubMed

Gilra, Aditya; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-11-27

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically.

Predicting non-linear dynamics by stable local learning in a recurrent spiking neural network

PubMed Central

Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

The brain needs to predict how the body reacts to motor commands, but how a network of spiking neurons can learn non-linear body dynamics using local, online and stable learning rules is unclear. Here, we present a supervised learning scheme for the feedforward and recurrent connections in a network of heterogeneous spiking neurons. The error in the output is fed back through fixed random connections with a negative gain, causing the network to follow the desired dynamics. The rule for Feedback-based Online Local Learning Of Weights (FOLLOW) is local in the sense that weight changes depend on the presynaptic activity and the error signal projected onto the postsynaptic neuron. We provide examples of learning linear, non-linear and chaotic dynamics, as well as the dynamics of a two-link arm. Under reasonable approximations, we show, using the Lyapunov method, that FOLLOW learning is uniformly stable, with the error going to zero asymptotically. PMID:29173280

A study of digital holographic filters generation. Phase 2: Digital data communication system, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Mo, C. D.

1978-01-01

An empirical study of the performance of the Viterbi decoders in bursty channels was carried out and an improved algebraic decoder for nonsystematic codes was developed. The hybrid algorithm was simulated for the (2,1), k = 7 code on a computer using 20 channels having various error statistics, ranging from pure random error to pure bursty channels. The hybrid system outperformed both the algebraic and the Viterbi decoders in every case, except the 1% random error channel where the Viterbi decoder had one bit less decoding error.

Error threshold for color codes and random three-body Ising models.

PubMed

Katzgraber, Helmut G; Bombin, H; Martin-Delgado, M A

2009-08-28

We study the error threshold of color codes, a class of topological quantum codes that allow a direct implementation of quantum Clifford gates suitable for entanglement distillation, teleportation, and fault-tolerant quantum computation. We map the error-correction process onto a statistical mechanical random three-body Ising model and study its phase diagram via Monte Carlo simulations. The obtained error threshold of p(c) = 0.109(2) is very close to that of Kitaev's toric code, showing that enhanced computational capabilities do not necessarily imply lower resistance to noise.

Effect of random errors in planar PIV data on pressure estimation in vortex dominated flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure, Jeffrey; Yarusevych, Serhiy

2015-11-01

The sensitivity of pressure estimation techniques from Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements to random errors in measured velocity data is investigated using the flow over a circular cylinder as a test case. Direct numerical simulations are performed for ReD = 100, 300 and 1575, spanning laminar, transitional, and turbulent wake regimes, respectively. A range of random errors typical for PIV measurements is applied to synthetic PIV data extracted from numerical results. A parametric study is then performed using a number of common pressure estimation techniques. Optimal temporal and spatial resolutions are derived based on the sensitivity of the estimated pressure fields to the simulated random error in velocity measurements, and the results are compared to an optimization model derived from error propagation theory. It is shown that the reductions in spatial and temporal scales at higher Reynolds numbers leads to notable changes in the optimal pressure evaluation parameters. The effect of smaller scale wake structures is also quantified. The errors in the estimated pressure fields are shown to depend significantly on the pressure estimation technique employed. The results are used to provide recommendations for the use of pressure and force estimation techniques from experimental PIV measurements in vortex dominated laminar and turbulent wake flows.

Random Measurement Error as a Source of Discrepancies between the Reports of Wives and Husbands Concerning Marital Power and Task Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quarm, Daisy

1981-01-01

Findings for couples (N=119) show wife's work, money, and spare time low between-spouse correlations are due in part to random measurement error. Suggests that increasing reliability of measures by creating multi-item indices can also increase correlations. Car purchase, vacation, and child discipline were not accounted for by random measurement…

Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Tang, Ling; Sapiano, Matthew; Maggioni, Viviana; Wu, Huan

2013-01-01

The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

One-step random mutagenesis by error-prone rolling circle amplification

PubMed Central

Fujii, Ryota; Kitaoka, Motomitsu; Hayashi, Kiyoshi

2004-01-01

In vitro random mutagenesis is a powerful tool for altering properties of enzymes. We describe here a novel random mutagenesis method using rolling circle amplification, named error-prone RCA. This method consists of only one DNA amplification step followed by transformation of the host strain, without treatment with any restriction enzymes or DNA ligases, and results in a randomly mutated plasmid library with 3–4 mutations per kilobase. Specific primers or special equipment, such as a thermal-cycler, are not required. This method permits rapid preparation of randomly mutated plasmid libraries, enabling random mutagenesis to become a more commonly used technique. PMID:15507684

[Comparison study on sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey in marshland schistosomiasis epidemic areas in China].

PubMed

An, Zhao; Wen-Xin, Zhang; Zhong, Yao; Yu-Kuan, Ma; Qing, Liu; Hou-Lang, Duan; Yi-di, Shang

2016-06-29

To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snail in marshland endemic region of schistosomiasis and increase the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. A quadrate experimental field was selected as the subject of 50 m×50 m size in Chayegang marshland near Henghu farm in the Poyang Lake region and a whole-covered method was adopted to survey the snails. The simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were applied to calculate the minimum sample size, relative sampling error and absolute sampling error. The minimum sample sizes of the simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were 300, 300 and 225, respectively. The relative sampling errors of three methods were all less than 15%. The absolute sampling errors were 0.221 7, 0.302 4 and 0.047 8, respectively. The spatial stratified sampling with altitude as the stratum variable is an efficient approach of lower cost and higher precision for the snail survey.

Obligation towards medical errors disclosure at a tertiary care hospital in Dubai, UAE

PubMed Central

Zaghloul, Ashraf Ahmad; Rahman, Syed Azizur; Abou El-Enein, Nagwa Younes

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to identify healthcare providers’ obligation towards medical errors disclosure as well as to study the association between the severity of the medical error and the intention to disclose the error to the patients and their families. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study design was followed to identify the magnitude of disclosure among healthcare providers in different departments at a randomly selected tertiary care hospital in Dubai. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The total sample size accounted for 106 respondents. Data were collected using a questionnaire composed of two sections namely; demographic variables of the respondents and a section which included variables relevant to medical error disclosure. RESULTS: Statistical analysis yielded significant association between the obligation to disclose medical errors with male healthcare providers (X2 = 5.1), and being a physician (X2 = 19.3). Obligation towards medical errors disclosure was significantly associated with those healthcare providers who had not committed any medical errors during the past year (X2 = 9.8), and any type of medical error regardless the cause, extent of harm (X2 = 8.7). Variables included in the binary logistic regression model were; status (Exp β (Physician) = 0.39, 95% CI 0.16–0.97), gender (Exp β (Male) = 4.81, 95% CI 1.84–12.54), and medical errors during the last year (Exp β (None) = 2.11, 95% CI 0.6–2.3). CONCLUSION: Education and training of physicians about disclosure conversations needs to start as early as medical school. Like the training in other competencies required of physicians, education in communicating about medical errors could help reduce physicians’ apprehension and make them more comfortable with disclosure conversations. PMID:27567766

Assessing the Genetic Predisposition of Education on Myopia: a Mendelian Randomization Study

PubMed Central

Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Lu, Yi; Kho, Pik Fang; Hewitt, Alex W.; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Yazar, Seyhan; Stambolian, Dwight; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E.; Wojciechowski, Robert; Wang, Jie Jin; Mitchell, Paul; Mackey, David A.; MacGregor, Stuart

2016-01-01

Myopia is the largest cause of uncorrected visual impairments globally and its recent dramatic increase in the population has made it a major public health problem. In observational studies, educational attainment has been consistently reported to be correlated to myopia. Nonetheless, correlation does not imply causation. Observational studies do not tell us if education causes myopia or if instead there are confounding factors underlying the association. In this work, we use a two-step least squares instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the causal effect of education on refractive error, specifically myopia. We used the results from the educational attainment GWAS from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium to define a polygenic risk score (PGRS) in three cohorts of late middle age and elderly Caucasian individuals (N=5,649). In a meta-analysis of the three cohorts, using the PGRS as an IV, we estimated that each z-score increase in education (approximately 2 years of education) results in a reduction of 0.92 ± 0.29 diopters (P=1.04×10−3). Our estimate of the effect of education on myopia was higher (P=0.01) than the observed estimate (0.25 ± 0.03 diopters reduction per education z-score [~2 years] increase). This suggests that observational studies may actually underestimate the true effect. Our Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis provides new evidence for a causal role of educational attainment on refractive error. PMID:26497973

Assessing the Genetic Predisposition of Education on Myopia: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

PubMed

Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Lu, Yi; Kho, Pik Fang; Hewitt, Alex W; Wichmann, H-Erich; Yazar, Seyhan; Stambolian, Dwight; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Wojciechowski, Robert; Wang, Jie Jin; Mitchell, Paul; Mackey, David A; MacGregor, Stuart

2016-01-01

Myopia is the largest cause of uncorrected visual impairments globally and its recent dramatic increase in the population has made it a major public health problem. In observational studies, educational attainment has been consistently reported to be correlated to myopia. Nonetheless, correlation does not imply causation. Observational studies do not tell us if education causes myopia or if instead there are confounding factors underlying the association. In this work, we use a two-step least squares instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the causal effect of education on refractive error, specifically myopia. We used the results from the educational attainment GWAS from the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium to define a polygenic risk score (PGRS) in three cohorts of late middle age and elderly Caucasian individuals (N = 5,649). In a meta-analysis of the three cohorts, using the PGRS as an IV, we estimated that each z-score increase in education (approximately 2 years of education) results in a reduction of 0.92 ± 0.29 diopters (P = 1.04 × 10(-3) ). Our estimate of the effect of education on myopia was higher (P = 0.01) than the observed estimate (0.25 ± 0.03 diopters reduction per education z-score [∼2 years] increase). This suggests that observational studies may actually underestimate the true effect. Our Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis provides new evidence for a causal role of educational attainment on refractive error. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Stochastic goal-oriented error estimation with memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackmann, Jan; Marotzke, Jochem; Korn, Peter

2017-11-01

We propose a stochastic dual-weighted error estimator for the viscous shallow-water equation with boundaries. For this purpose, previous work on memory-less stochastic dual-weighted error estimation is extended by incorporating memory effects. The memory is introduced by describing the local truncation error as a sum of time-correlated random variables. The random variables itself represent the temporal fluctuations in local truncation errors and are estimated from high-resolution information at near-initial times. The resulting error estimator is evaluated experimentally in two classical ocean-type experiments, the Munk gyre and the flow around an island. In these experiments, the stochastic process is adapted locally to the respective dynamical flow regime. Our stochastic dual-weighted error estimator is shown to provide meaningful error bounds for a range of physically relevant goals. We prove, as well as show numerically, that our approach can be interpreted as a linearized stochastic-physics ensemble.

Combined application of airborne and terrestrial laserscanning for quantifying sediment relocation by a large debris flow event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bremer, Magnus; Sass, Oliver; Vetter, Michael; Geilhausen, Martin

2010-05-01

Country-wide ALS datasets of high resolution become more and more available and can provide a solid basis for geomorphological research. On the other hand, terrain changes after geomorphological extreme events can be quickly and flexibly documented by TLS and be compared to the pre-existing ALS datasets. For quantifying net-erosion, net-sedimentation and transport rates of events like rock falls, landslides and debris flows, comparing TLS surveys after the event to ALS data before the event is likely to become a widespread and powerful tool. However, the accuracy and possible errors of fitting ALS and TLS data have to be carefully assessed. We tried to quantify sediment movement and terrain changes caused by a major debris-flow-event in the Halltal in the Karwendel Mountains (Tyrol, Austria). Wide areas of limestone debris were dissected and relocated in the course of an exceptional rainstorm event on 29th June 2008. The event occurred 64 years after wildfire-driven deforestation. In the area, dense dwarf pine (pinus mugo) shrub cover is widespread, causing specific problems in generating terrain models. We compared a pre-event ALS-dataset, provided by the federal-state of Tyrol, and a post-event TLS survey. The two scanner systems have differing system characteristics (scan angles, resolutions, application of dGPS, etc.), causing different systematic and random errors. Combining TLS and ALS point data was achieved using an algorithm of the RISCAN_PRO software (Multi Station Adjustment), enabling a least square fitting between the two surfaces. Adjustment and registration accuracies as well as the quality of applied vegetation filters, mainly eliminating non-groundpoints from the raw data, are crucial for the generation of high-quality terrain models and a reliable comparison of the two data sets. Readily available filter algorithms provide good performance for gently sloped terrain and high forest vegetation. However, the low krummholz vegetation on steep terrain proved difficult to be filtered. This is due to a small height difference between terrain and canopy, a very strong height variation of the terrain points compared to the height variation of the canopy points and a very high density of the vegetation. The letter leads to very low percentages of groundpoints (1 - 5%). A combined filtering approach using a surface-based filter and a morphological filter, adapted to the characteristics of the krummholz vegetation were applied to overcome these problems. In the next step, the datasets were compared, erosion- and sedimentation areas were detected and quantified (cut-and-fill) in view of the accuracy achieved. The position of the relocated surface areas were compared to the morphological structures of the initial surface (inclination, curvature, flowpaths, hydrological catchments). Considerable deviations between the datasets were caused, besides the geomorphic terrain changes, by systematic and random errors. Due to the scanner perspective, parts of the steep slopes are depicted inaccurately by ALS. Rugged terrain surfaces cause random errors of ALS/TLS adjustment when the ratio of point density to surface variability is low. Due to multiple returns and alteration of pulse shape, terrain altitude is frequently overestimated when dense shrub cover is present. This effect becomes stronger with larger footprints. Despite these problems, erosional and depositional areas of debris flows could be clearly identified and match the results of field surveys. Strongest erosion occurred along the flowpaths with the greatest runoff concentration, mainly at the bedrock-debris interface.

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO RANDOM ERRORS FOR MOMENT ANALYSES OF BREAKTHROUGH CURVES

EPA Science Inventory

The uncertainty in moments calculated from breakthrough curves (BTCs) is investigated as a function of random measurement errors in the data used to define the BTCs. The method presented assumes moments are calculated by numerical integration using the trapezoidal rule, and is t...

Simulation of aspheric tolerance with polynomial fitting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Cen, Zhaofeng; Li, Xiaotong

2018-01-01

The shape of the aspheric lens changes caused by machining errors, resulting in a change in the optical transfer function, which affects the image quality. At present, there is no universally recognized tolerance criterion standard for aspheric surface. To study the influence of aspheric tolerances on the optical transfer function, the tolerances of polynomial fitting are allocated on the aspheric surface, and the imaging simulation is carried out by optical imaging software. Analysis is based on a set of aspheric imaging system. The error is generated in the range of a certain PV value, and expressed as a form of Zernike polynomial, which is added to the aspheric surface as a tolerance term. Through optical software analysis, the MTF of optical system can be obtained and used as the main evaluation index. Evaluate whether the effect of the added error on the MTF of the system meets the requirements of the current PV value. Change the PV value and repeat the operation until the acceptable maximum allowable PV value is obtained. According to the actual processing technology, consider the error of various shapes, such as M type, W type, random type error. The new method will provide a certain development for the actual free surface processing technology the reference value.

Random Versus Nonrandom Peer Review: A Case for More Meaningful Peer Review.

PubMed

Itri, Jason N; Donithan, Adam; Patel, Sohil H

2018-05-10

Random peer review programs are not optimized to discover cases with diagnostic error and thus have inherent limitations with respect to educational and quality improvement value. Nonrandom peer review offers an alternative approach in which diagnostic error cases are targeted for collection during routine clinical practice. The objective of this study was to compare error cases identified through random and nonrandom peer review approaches at an academic center. During the 1-year study period, the number of discrepancy cases and score of discrepancy were determined from each approach. The nonrandom peer review process collected 190 cases, of which 60 were scored as 2 (minor discrepancy), 94 as 3 (significant discrepancy), and 36 as 4 (major discrepancy). In the random peer review process, 1,690 cases were reviewed, of which 1,646 were scored as 1 (no discrepancy), 44 were scored as 2 (minor discrepancy), and none were scored as 3 or 4. Several teaching lessons and quality improvement measures were developed as a result of analysis of error cases collected through the nonrandom peer review process. Our experience supports the implementation of nonrandom peer review as a replacement to random peer review, with nonrandom peer review serving as a more effective method for collecting diagnostic error cases with educational and quality improvement value. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Directional control-response compatibility relationships assessed by physical simulation of an underground bolting machine.

PubMed

Steiner, Lisa; Burgess-Limerick, Robin; Porter, William

2014-03-01

The authors examine the pattern of direction errors made during the manipulation of a physical simulation of an underground coal mine bolting machine to assess the directional control-response compatibility relationships associated with the device and to compare these results to data obtained from a virtual simulation of a generic device. Directional errors during the manual control of underground coal roof bolting equipment are associated with serious injuries. Directional control-response relationships have previously been examined using a virtual simulation of a generic device; however, the applicability of these results to a specific physical device may be questioned. Forty-eight participants randomly assigned to different directional control-response relationships manipulated horizontal or vertical control levers to move a simulated bolter arm in three directions (elevation, slew, and sump) as well as to cause a light to become illuminated and raise or lower a stabilizing jack. Directional errors were recorded during the completion of 240 trials by each participant Directional error rates are increased when the control and response are in opposite directions or if the direction of the control and response are perpendicular.The pattern of direction error rates was consistent with experiments obtained from a generic device in a virtual environment. Error rates are increased by incompatible directional control-response relationships. Ensuring that the design of equipment controls maintains compatible directional control-response relationships has potential to reduce the errors made in high-risk situations, such as underground coal mining.

Efficient Measurement of Quantum Gate Error by Interleaved Randomized Benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magesan, Easwar; Gambetta, Jay M.; Johnson, B. R.; Ryan, Colm A.; Chow, Jerry M.; Merkel, Seth T.; da Silva, Marcus P.; Keefe, George A.; Rothwell, Mary B.; Ohki, Thomas A.; Ketchen, Mark B.; Steffen, M.

2012-08-01

We describe a scalable experimental protocol for estimating the average error of individual quantum computational gates. This protocol consists of interleaving random Clifford gates between the gate of interest and provides an estimate as well as theoretical bounds for the average error of the gate under test, so long as the average noise variation over all Clifford gates is small. This technique takes into account both state preparation and measurement errors and is scalable in the number of qubits. We apply this protocol to a superconducting qubit system and find a bounded average error of 0.003 [0,0.016] for the single-qubit gates Xπ/2 and Yπ/2. These bounded values provide better estimates of the average error than those extracted via quantum process tomography.

Efficacy of Visual-Acoustic Biofeedback Intervention for Residual Rhotic Errors: A Single-Subject Randomization Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byun, Tara McAllister

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study documented the efficacy of visual-acoustic biofeedback intervention for residual rhotic errors, relative to a comparison condition involving traditional articulatory treatment. All participants received both treatments in a single-subject experimental design featuring alternating treatments with blocked randomization of…

Statistical Analysis Experiment for Freshman Chemistry Lab.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salzsieder, John C.

1995-01-01

Describes a laboratory experiment dissolving zinc from galvanized nails in which data can be gathered very quickly for statistical analysis. The data have sufficient significant figures and the experiment yields a nice distribution of random errors. Freshman students can gain an appreciation of the relationships between random error, number of…

Evaluation of seasonal and spatial variations of lumped water balance model sensitivity to precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chong-yu; Tunemar, Liselotte; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, V. P.

2006-06-01

Sensitivity of hydrological models to input data errors have been reported in the literature for particular models on a single or a few catchments. A more important issue, i.e. how model's response to input data error changes as the catchment conditions change has not been addressed previously. This study investigates the seasonal and spatial effects of precipitation data errors on the performance of conceptual hydrological models. For this study, a monthly conceptual water balance model, NOPEX-6, was applied to 26 catchments in the Mälaren basin in Central Sweden. Both systematic and random errors were considered. For the systematic errors, 5-15% of mean monthly precipitation values were added to the original precipitation to form the corrupted input scenarios. Random values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation and were assumed to be (1) independent between months, and (2) distributed according to a Gaussian law of zero mean and constant standard deviation that were taken as 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25% of the mean monthly standard deviation of precipitation. The results show that the response of the model parameters and model performance depends, among others, on the type of the error, the magnitude of the error, physical characteristics of the catchment, and the season of the year. In particular, the model appears less sensitive to the random error than to the systematic error. The catchments with smaller values of runoff coefficients were more influenced by input data errors than were the catchments with higher values. Dry months were more sensitive to precipitation errors than were wet months. Recalibration of the model with erroneous data compensated in part for the data errors by altering the model parameters.

Statistical analysis of nonlinearly reconstructed near-infrared tomographic images: Part I--Theory and simulations.

PubMed

Pogue, Brian W; Song, Xiaomei; Tosteson, Tor D; McBride, Troy O; Jiang, Shudong; Paulsen, Keith D

2002-07-01

Near-infrared (NIR) diffuse tomography is an emerging method for imaging the interior of tissues to quantify concentrations of hemoglobin and exogenous chromophores non-invasively in vivo. It often exploits an optical diffusion model-based image reconstruction algorithm to estimate spatial property values from measurements of the light flux at the surface of the tissue. In this study, mean-squared error (MSE) over the image is used to evaluate methods for regularizing the ill-posed inverse image reconstruction problem in NIR tomography. Estimates of image bias and image standard deviation were calculated based upon 100 repeated reconstructions of a test image with randomly distributed noise added to the light flux measurements. It was observed that the bias error dominates at high regularization parameter values while variance dominates as the algorithm is allowed to approach the optimal solution. This optimum does not necessarily correspond to the minimum projection error solution, but typically requires further iteration with a decreasing regularization parameter to reach the lowest image error. Increasing measurement noise causes a need to constrain the minimum regularization parameter to higher values in order to achieve a minimum in the overall image MSE.

Impact of Exposure Uncertainty on the Association between Perfluorooctanoate and Preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project Population.

PubMed

Avanasi, Raghavendhran; Shin, Hyeong-Moo; Vieira, Verónica M; Savitz, David A; Bartell, Scott M

2016-01-01

Uncertainty in exposure estimates from models can result in exposure measurement error and can potentially affect the validity of epidemiological studies. We recently used a suite of environmental models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations and assess the association with preeclampsia from 1990 through 2006 for the C8 Health Project participants. The aims of the current study are to evaluate impact of uncertainty in estimated PFOA drinking-water concentrations on estimated serum concentrations and their reported epidemiological association with preeclampsia. For each individual public water district, we used Monte Carlo simulations to vary the year-by-year PFOA drinking-water concentration by randomly sampling from lognormal distributions for random error in the yearly public water district PFOA concentrations, systematic error specific to each water district, and global systematic error in the release assessment (using the estimated concentrations from the original fate and transport model as medians and a range of 2-, 5-, and 10-fold uncertainty). Uncertainty in PFOA water concentrations could cause major changes in estimated serum PFOA concentrations among participants. However, there is relatively little impact on the resulting epidemiological association in our simulations. The contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty (including regression parameter variance) ranged from 5% to 31%, and bias was negligible. We found that correlated exposure uncertainty can substantially change estimated PFOA serum concentrations, but results in only minor impacts on the epidemiological association between PFOA and preeclampsia. Avanasi R, Shin HM, Vieira VM, Savitz DA, Bartell SM. 2016. Impact of exposure uncertainty on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population. Environ Health Perspect 124:126-132; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409044.

SU-E-T-789: Validation of 3DVH Accuracy On Quantifying Delivery Errors Based On Clinical Relevant DVH Metrics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, T; Kumaraswamy, L

Purpose: Detection of treatment delivery errors is important in radiation therapy. However, accurate quantification of delivery errors is also of great importance. This study aims to evaluate the 3DVH software’s ability to accurately quantify delivery errors. Methods: Three VMAT plans (prostate, H&N and brain) were randomly chosen for this study. First, we evaluated whether delivery errors could be detected by gamma evaluation. Conventional per-beam IMRT QA was performed with the ArcCHECK diode detector for the original plans and for the following modified plans: (1) induced dose difference error up to ±4.0% and (2) control point (CP) deletion (3 to 10more » CPs were deleted) (3) gantry angle shift error (3 degree uniformly shift). 2D and 3D gamma evaluation were performed for all plans through SNC Patient and 3DVH, respectively. Subsequently, we investigated the accuracy of 3DVH analysis for all cases. This part evaluated, using the Eclipse TPS plans as standard, whether 3DVH accurately can model the changes in clinically relevant metrics caused by the delivery errors. Results: 2D evaluation seemed to be more sensitive to delivery errors. The average differences between ECLIPSE predicted and 3DVH results for each pair of specific DVH constraints were within 2% for all three types of error-induced treatment plans, illustrating the fact that 3DVH is fairly accurate in quantifying the delivery errors. Another interesting observation was that even though the gamma pass rates for the error plans are high, the DVHs showed significant differences between original plan and error-induced plans in both Eclipse and 3DVH analysis. Conclusion: The 3DVH software is shown to accurately quantify the error in delivered dose based on clinically relevant DVH metrics, where a conventional gamma based pre-treatment QA might not necessarily detect.« less

On-board error correction improves IR earth sensor accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alex, T. K.; Kasturirangan, K.; Shrivastava, S. K.

1989-10-01

Infra-red earth sensors are used in satellites for attitude sensing. Their accuracy is limited by systematic and random errors. The sources of errors in a scanning infra-red earth sensor are analyzed in this paper. The systematic errors arising from seasonal variation of infra-red radiation, oblate shape of the earth, ambient temperature of sensor, changes in scan/spin rates have been analyzed. Simple relations are derived using least square curve fitting for on-board correction of these errors. Random errors arising out of noise from detector and amplifiers, instability of alignment and localized radiance anomalies are analyzed and possible correction methods are suggested. Sun and Moon interference on earth sensor performance has seriously affected a number of missions. The on-board processor detects Sun/Moon interference and corrects the errors on-board. It is possible to obtain eight times improvement in sensing accuracy, which will be comparable with ground based post facto attitude refinement.

Recovery Characteristics of Anomalous Stress-Induced Leakage Current of 5.6 nm Oxide Films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatsuka, Takuya; Kumagai, Yuki; Kuroda, Rihito; Teramoto, Akinobu; Sugawa, Shigetoshi; Ohmi, Tadahiro

2012-04-01

Anomalous stress-induced leakage current (SILC), which has a much larger current density than average SILC, causes severe bit error in flash memories. To suppress anomalous SILC, detailed evaluations are strongly required. We evaluate the characteristics of anomalous SILC of 5.6 nm oxide films using a fabricated array test pattern, and recovery characteristics are observed. Some characteristics of typical anomalous cells in the time domain are measured, and the recovery characteristics of average and anomalous SILCs are examined. Some of the anomalous cells have random telegraph signals (RTSs) of gate leakage current, which are characterized as discrete and random switching phenomena. The dependence of RTSs on the applied electric field is investigated, and the recovery tendency of anomalous SILC with and without RTSs are also discussed.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 1; Improved Method and Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Yang, Song; Petty, Grant W.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Bell, Thomas L.; Braun, Scott A.; Wang, Yansen; Lang, Stephen E.; Johnson, Daniel E.;

Assessing representation errors of IAGOS CO2, CO and CH4 profile observations: the impact of spatial variations in near-field emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boschetti, Fabio; Thouret, Valerie; Nedelec, Philippe; Chen, Huilin; Gerbig, Christoph

2015-04-01

Airborne platforms have their main strength in the ability of collecting mixing ratio and meteorological data at different heights across a vertical profile, allowing an insight in the internal structure of the atmosphere. However, rental airborne platforms are usually expensive, limiting the number of flights that can be afforded and hence on the amount of data that can be collected. To avoid this disadvantage, the MOZAIC/IAGOS (Measurements of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft/In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) program makes use of commercial airliners, providing data on a regular basis. It is therefore considered an important tool in atmospheric investigations. However, due to the nature of said platforms, MOZAIC/IAGOS's profiles are located near international airports, which are usually significant emission sources, and are in most cases close to major urban settlements, characterized by higher anthropogenic emissions compared to rural areas. When running transport models at finite resolution, these local emissions can heavily affect measurements resulting in biases in model/observation mismatch. Model/observation mismatch can include different aspects in both horizontal and vertical direction, for example spatial and temporal resolution of the modeled fluxes, or poorly represented convective transport or turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. In the framework of the IGAS (IAGOS for GMES Atmospheric Service) project, whose aim is to improve connections between data collected by MOZAIC/IAGOS and Copernicus Atmospheric Service, the present study is focused on the effect of the spatial resolution of emission fluxes, referred to here as representation error. To investigate this, the Lagrangian transport model STILT (Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport) was coupled with EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) version-4.3 emission inventory at European regional scale. EDGAR's simulated fluxes for CO, CO2 and CH4 with a spatial resolution of 10x10 km for the time frame 2006-2011 was be aggregated into coarser and coarser grid cells in order to evaluate the representation error at different spatial scales. The dependence of representation error from wind direction and month of the year was evaluated for different location in the European domain, for both random and bias component. The representation error was then validated against the model-data mismatch derived from the comparison of MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis with IAGOS observations for CO to investigate its suitability for modeling applications. We found that the random and bias components of the representation error show a similar pattern dependent on wind direction. In addition, we found a clear linear relationship between the representation error and the model-data mismatch for both (random and bias) components, indicating that about 50% of the model-data mismatch is related to the representation error. This suggests that the representation error derived using STILT provides useful information for better understanding causes for model-data mismatch.

Are gestational age, birth weight, and birth length indicators of favorable fetal growth conditions? A structural equation analysis of Filipino infants.

PubMed

Bollen, Kenneth A; Noble, Mark D; Adair, Linda S

2013-07-30

The fetal origins hypothesis emphasizes the life-long health impacts of prenatal conditions. Birth weight, birth length, and gestational age are indicators of the fetal environment. However, these variables often have missing data and are subject to random and systematic errors caused by delays in measurement, differences in measurement instruments, and human error. With data from the Cebu (Philippines) Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey, we use structural equation models, to explore random and systematic errors in these birth outcome measures, to analyze how maternal characteristics relate to birth outcomes, and to take account of missing data. We assess whether birth weight, birth length, and gestational age are influenced by a single latent variable that we call favorable fetal growth conditions (FFGC) and if so, which variable is most closely related to FFGC. We find that a model with FFGC as a latent variable fits as well as a less parsimonious model that has birth weight, birth length, and gestational age as distinct individual variables. We also demonstrate that birth weight is more reliably measured than is gestational age. FFGCs were significantly influenced by taller maternal stature, better nutritional stores indexed by maternal arm fat and muscle area during pregnancy, higher birth order, avoidance of smoking, and maternal age 20-35 years. Effects of maternal characteristics on newborn weight, length, and gestational age were largely indirect, operating through FFGC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What Randomized Benchmarking Actually Measures

DOE PAGES

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin; ...

2017-09-28

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not amore » well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.« less

Quantifying errors without random sampling.

PubMed

Phillips, Carl V; LaPole, Luwanna M

2003-06-12

All quantifications of mortality, morbidity, and other health measures involve numerous sources of error. The routine quantification of random sampling error makes it easy to forget that other sources of error can and should be quantified. When a quantification does not involve sampling, error is almost never quantified and results are often reported in ways that dramatically overstate their precision. We argue that the precision implicit in typical reporting is problematic and sketch methods for quantifying the various sources of error, building up from simple examples that can be solved analytically to more complex cases. There are straightforward ways to partially quantify the uncertainty surrounding a parameter that is not characterized by random sampling, such as limiting reported significant figures. We present simple methods for doing such quantifications, and for incorporating them into calculations. More complicated methods become necessary when multiple sources of uncertainty must be combined. We demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation, using available software, can estimate the uncertainty resulting from complicated calculations with many sources of uncertainty. We apply the method to the current estimate of the annual incidence of foodborne illness in the United States. Quantifying uncertainty from systematic errors is practical. Reporting this uncertainty would more honestly represent study results, help show the probability that estimated values fall within some critical range, and facilitate better targeting of further research.

Random errors of oceanic monthly rainfall derived from SSM/I using probability distribution functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.; Wilheit, Thomas T.

1993-01-01

Global averages and random errors associated with the monthly oceanic rain rates derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data using the technique developed by Wilheit et al. (1991) are computed. Accounting for the beam-filling bias, a global annual average rain rate of 1.26 m is computed. The error estimation scheme is based on the existence of independent (morning and afternoon) estimates of the monthly mean. Calculations show overall random errors of about 50-60 percent for each 5 deg x 5 deg box. The results are insensitive to different sampling strategy (odd and even days of the month). Comparison of the SSM/I estimates with raingage data collected at the Pacific atoll stations showed a low bias of about 8 percent, a correlation of 0.7, and an rms difference of 55 percent.

A Fast and On-Machine Measuring System Using the Laser Displacement Sensor for the Contour Parameters of the Drill Pipe Thread.

PubMed

Dong, Zhixu; Sun, Xingwei; Chen, Changzheng; Sun, Mengnan

2018-04-13

The inconvenient loading and unloading of a long and heavy drill pipe gives rise to the difficulty in measuring the contour parameters of its threads at both ends. To solve this problem, in this paper we take the SCK230 drill pipe thread-repairing machine tool as a carrier to design and achieve a fast and on-machine measuring system based on a laser probe. This system drives a laser displacement sensor to acquire the contour data of a certain axial section of the thread by using the servo function of a CNC machine tool. To correct the sensor's measurement errors caused by the measuring point inclination angle, an inclination error model is built to compensate data in real time. To better suppress random error interference and ensure real contour information, a new wavelet threshold function is proposed to process data through the wavelet threshold denoising. Discrete data after denoising is segmented according to the geometrical characteristics of the drill pipe thread, and the regression model of the contour data in each section is fitted by using the method of weighted total least squares (WTLS). Then, the thread parameters are calculated in real time to judge the processing quality. Inclination error experiments show that the proposed compensation model is accurate and effective, and it can improve the data acquisition accuracy of a sensor. Simulation results indicate that the improved threshold function is of better continuity and self-adaptability, which makes sure that denoising effects are guaranteed, and, meanwhile, the complete elimination of real data distorted in random errors is avoided. Additionally, NC50 thread-testing experiments show that the proposed on-machine measuring system can complete the measurement of a 25 mm thread in 7.8 s, with a measurement accuracy of ±8 μm and repeatability limit ≤ 4 μm (high repeatability), and hence the accuracy and efficiency of measurement are both improved.

A Fast and On-Machine Measuring System Using the Laser Displacement Sensor for the Contour Parameters of the Drill Pipe Thread

PubMed Central

Sun, Xingwei; Chen, Changzheng; Sun, Mengnan

2018-01-01

The inconvenient loading and unloading of a long and heavy drill pipe gives rise to the difficulty in measuring the contour parameters of its threads at both ends. To solve this problem, in this paper we take the SCK230 drill pipe thread-repairing machine tool as a carrier to design and achieve a fast and on-machine measuring system based on a laser probe. This system drives a laser displacement sensor to acquire the contour data of a certain axial section of the thread by using the servo function of a CNC machine tool. To correct the sensor’s measurement errors caused by the measuring point inclination angle, an inclination error model is built to compensate data in real time. To better suppress random error interference and ensure real contour information, a new wavelet threshold function is proposed to process data through the wavelet threshold denoising. Discrete data after denoising is segmented according to the geometrical characteristics of the drill pipe thread, and the regression model of the contour data in each section is fitted by using the method of weighted total least squares (WTLS). Then, the thread parameters are calculated in real time to judge the processing quality. Inclination error experiments show that the proposed compensation model is accurate and effective, and it can improve the data acquisition accuracy of a sensor. Simulation results indicate that the improved threshold function is of better continuity and self-adaptability, which makes sure that denoising effects are guaranteed, and, meanwhile, the complete elimination of real data distorted in random errors is avoided. Additionally, NC50 thread-testing experiments show that the proposed on-machine measuring system can complete the measurement of a 25 mm thread in 7.8 s, with a measurement accuracy of ±8 μm and repeatability limit ≤ 4 μm (high repeatability), and hence the accuracy and efficiency of measurement are both improved. PMID:29652836

Correcting the Standard Errors of 2-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimators for Mendelian Randomization Studies

PubMed Central

Palmer, Tom M; Holmes, Michael V; Keating, Brendan J; Sheehan, Nuala A

2017-01-01

Abstract Mendelian randomization studies use genotypes as instrumental variables to test for and estimate the causal effects of modifiable risk factors on outcomes. Two-stage residual inclusion (TSRI) estimators have been used when researchers are willing to make parametric assumptions. However, researchers are currently reporting uncorrected or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors for these estimates. We compared several different forms of the standard error for linear and logistic TSRI estimates in simulations and in real-data examples. Among others, we consider standard errors modified from the approach of Newey (1987), Terza (2016), and bootstrapping. In our simulations Newey, Terza, bootstrap, and corrected 2-stage least squares (in the linear case) standard errors gave the best results in terms of coverage and type I error. In the real-data examples, the Newey standard errors were 0.5% and 2% larger than the unadjusted standard errors for the linear and logistic TSRI estimators, respectively. We show that TSRI estimators with modified standard errors have correct type I error under the null. Researchers should report TSRI estimates with modified standard errors instead of reporting unadjusted or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. PMID:29106476

Flux control coefficients determined by inhibitor titration: the design and analysis of experiments to minimize errors.

PubMed Central

Small, J R

1993-01-01

This paper is a study into the effects of experimental error on the estimated values of flux control coefficients obtained using specific inhibitors. Two possible techniques for analysing the experimental data are compared: a simple extrapolation method (the so-called graph method) and a non-linear function fitting method. For these techniques, the sources of systematic errors are identified and the effects of systematic and random errors are quantified, using both statistical analysis and numerical computation. It is shown that the graph method is very sensitive to random errors and, under all conditions studied, that the fitting method, even under conditions where the assumptions underlying the fitted function do not hold, outperformed the graph method. Possible ways of designing experiments to minimize the effects of experimental errors are analysed and discussed. PMID:8257434

Evaluation of random errors in Williams’ series coefficients obtained with digital image correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lychak, Oleh V.; Holyns'kiy, Ivan S.

2016-03-01

The use of the Williams’ series parameters for fracture analysis requires valid information about their error values. The aim of this investigation is the development of the method for estimation of the standard deviation of random errors of the Williams’ series parameters, obtained from the measured components of the stress field. Also, the criteria for choosing the optimal number of terms in the truncated Williams’ series for derivation of their parameters with minimal errors is proposed. The method was used for the evaluation of the Williams’ parameters, obtained from the data, and measured by the digital image correlation technique for testing a three-point bending specimen.

Large Uncertainty in Estimating pCO2 From Carbonate Equilibria in Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golub, Malgorzata; Desai, Ankur R.; McKinley, Galen A.; Remucal, Christina K.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-11-01

Most estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) evasion from freshwaters rely on calculating partial pressure of aquatic CO2 (pCO2) from two out of three CO2-related parameters using carbonate equilibria. However, the pCO2 uncertainty has not been systematically evaluated across multiple lake types and equilibria. We quantified random errors in pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and temperature from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research site in four lake groups across a broad gradient of chemical composition. These errors were propagated onto pCO2 calculated from three carbonate equilibria, and for overlapping observations, compared against uncertainties in directly measured pCO2. The empirical random errors in CO2-related parameters were mostly below 2% of their median values. Resulting random pCO2 errors ranged from ±3.7% to ±31.5% of the median depending on alkalinity group and choice of input parameter pairs. Temperature uncertainty had a negligible effect on pCO2. When compared with direct pCO2 measurements, all parameter combinations produced biased pCO2 estimates with less than one third of total uncertainty explained by random pCO2 errors, indicating that systematic uncertainty dominates over random error. Multidecadal trend of pCO2 was difficult to reconstruct from uncertain historical observations of CO2-related parameters. Given poor precision and accuracy of pCO2 estimates derived from virtually any combination of two CO2-related parameters, we recommend direct pCO2 measurements where possible. To achieve consistently robust estimates of CO2 emissions from freshwater components of terrestrial carbon balances, future efforts should focus on improving accuracy and precision of CO2-related parameters (including direct pCO2) measurements and associated pCO2 calculations.

Improve homology search sensitivity of PacBio data by correcting frameshifts.

PubMed

Du, Nan; Sun, Yanni

2016-09-01

Single-molecule, real-time sequencing (SMRT) developed by Pacific BioSciences produces longer reads than secondary generation sequencing technologies such as Illumina. The long read length enables PacBio sequencing to close gaps in genome assembly, reveal structural variations, and identify gene isoforms with higher accuracy in transcriptomic sequencing. However, PacBio data has high sequencing error rate and most of the errors are insertion or deletion errors. During alignment-based homology search, insertion or deletion errors in genes will cause frameshifts and may only lead to marginal alignment scores and short alignments. As a result, it is hard to distinguish true alignments from random alignments and the ambiguity will incur errors in structural and functional annotation. Existing frameshift correction tools are designed for data with much lower error rate and are not optimized for PacBio data. As an increasing number of groups are using SMRT, there is an urgent need for dedicated homology search tools for PacBio data. In this work, we introduce Frame-Pro, a profile homology search tool for PacBio reads. Our tool corrects sequencing errors and also outputs the profile alignments of the corrected sequences against characterized protein families. We applied our tool to both simulated and real PacBio data. The results showed that our method enables more sensitive homology search, especially for PacBio data sets of low sequencing coverage. In addition, we can correct more errors when comparing with a popular error correction tool that does not rely on hybrid sequencing. The source code is freely available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/frame-pro/ yannisun@msu.edu. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A theory of human error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcruer, D. T.; Clement, W. F.; Allen, R. W.

1981-01-01

Human errors tend to be treated in terms of clinical and anecdotal descriptions, from which remedial measures are difficult to derive. Correction of the sources of human error requires an attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A comprehensive analytical theory of the cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error is indispensable to a reconstruction of the underlying and contributing causes. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation, maritime, automotive, and process control operations is highlighted. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error.

Prevalence and causes of visual impairment and rate of wearing spectacles in schools for children of migrant workers in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

He, Jiangnan; Lu, Lina; Zou, Haidong; He, Xiangui; Li, Qiangqiang; Wang, Weijie; Zhu, Jianfeng

2014-12-22

To assess the prevalence of visual impairment and rate of wearing spectacles in schools for children of migrant workers in Shanghai, China. Children from grade 1 to 5 in schools for children of migrant workers were randomly chosen for ocular examinations. All children were screened for uncorrected visual acuity and presenting visual acuity. After screening, the children whose uncorrected visual acuity was 20/40 or less received ocular motility evaluation, cycloplegic refraction/non-cycloplegic refraction, and external eye, anterior segment, media, and fundus examinations. A total of 9673 children were enumerated and 9512 (98.34%) participated in this study. The prevalence of uncorrected, presenting, and best-corrected visual acuity of 20/40 or worse in the better eye were 13.33%, 11.26%, and 0.63%, respectively. The rate of wearing spectacles of the children with visual impairment in one or both eyes was 15.50%. Of these, 26.05% were wearing spectacles with inaccurate prescriptions. Refractive error was a major cause of visual impairment, accounting for 89.48% of all the visual impairment causes. Other causes of visual impairment included amblyopia accounting for 10.12%; congenital cataract, 0.1%; congenital nystagmus, 0.1%; ocular prosthesis, 0.1%; macular degeneration, 0.05%; and opaque cornea, 0.05%. This is the first study of the prevalence and causes of visual impairment in schools for children of migrant workers in Shanghai, China. The visual impairment rate in schools for children of migrant workers in suburbs of Shanghai in the best eye before vision correction was lower than those of urban children in mainstream schools in Guangzhou in 2012, and higher than students in rural of Beijing in 1998 and in suburb of Chongqing in 2007. The refractive error was the principal cause of the visual impairment of the children of migrant workers. The rate of wearing spectacles was low and the percentage of inaccurate prescriptions, among those who wore spectacles, was high. Uncorrected refractive error was a significant cause of visual impairment in migrant children.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Juan; Beltran, Chris J., E-mail: beltran.chris@mayo.edu; Herman, Michael G.

Purpose: To quantitatively and systematically assess dosimetric effects induced by spot positioning error as a function of spot spacing (SS) on intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plan quality and to facilitate evaluation of safety tolerance limits on spot position. Methods: Spot position errors (PE) ranging from 1 to 2 mm were simulated. Simple plans were created on a water phantom, and IMPT plans were calculated on two pediatric patients with a brain tumor of 28 and 3 cc, respectively, using a commercial planning system. For the phantom, a uniform dose was delivered to targets located at different depths from 10 tomore » 20 cm with various field sizes from 2{sup 2} to 15{sup 2} cm{sup 2}. Two nominal spot sizes, 4.0 and 6.6 mm of 1 σ in water at isocenter, were used for treatment planning. The SS ranged from 0.5 σ to 1.5 σ, which is 2–6 mm for the small spot size and 3.3–9.9 mm for the large spot size. Various perturbation scenarios of a single spot error and systematic and random multiple spot errors were studied. To quantify the dosimetric effects, percent dose error (PDE) depth profiles and the value of percent dose error at the maximum dose difference (PDE [ΔDmax]) were used for evaluation. Results: A pair of hot and cold spots was created per spot shift. PDE[ΔDmax] is found to be a complex function of PE, SS, spot size, depth, and global spot distribution that can be well defined in simple models. For volumetric targets, the PDE [ΔDmax] is not noticeably affected by the change of field size or target volume within the studied ranges. In general, reducing SS decreased the dose error. For the facility studied, given a single spot error with a PE of 1.2 mm and for both spot sizes, a SS of 1σ resulted in a 2% maximum dose error; a SS larger than 1.25 σ substantially increased the dose error and its sensitivity to PE. A similar trend was observed in multiple spot errors (both systematic and random errors). Systematic PE can lead to noticeable hot spots along the field edges, which may be near critical structures. However, random PE showed minimal dose error. Conclusions: Dose error dependence for PE was quantitatively and systematically characterized and an analytic tool was built to simulate systematic and random errors for patient-specific IMPT. This information facilitates the determination of facility specific spot position error thresholds.« less

[Errors in medicine. Causes, impact and improvement measures to improve patient safety].

PubMed

Waeschle, R M; Bauer, M; Schmidt, C E

2015-09-01

The guarantee of quality of care and patient safety is of major importance in hospitals even though increased economic pressure and work intensification are ubiquitously present. Nevertheless, adverse events still occur in 3-4 % of hospital stays and of these 25-50 % are estimated to be avoidable. The identification of possible causes of error and the development of measures for the prevention of medical errors are essential for patient safety. The implementation and continuous development of a constructive culture of error tolerance are fundamental.The origins of errors can be differentiated into systemic latent and individual active causes and components of both categories are typically involved when an error occurs. Systemic causes are, for example out of date structural environments, lack of clinical standards and low personnel density. These causes arise far away from the patient, e.g. management decisions and can remain unrecognized for a long time. Individual causes involve, e.g. confirmation bias, error of fixation and prospective memory failure. These causes have a direct impact on patient care and can result in immediate injury to patients. Stress, unclear information, complex systems and a lack of professional experience can promote individual causes. Awareness of possible causes of error is a fundamental precondition to establishing appropriate countermeasures.Error prevention should include actions directly affecting the causes of error and includes checklists and standard operating procedures (SOP) to avoid fixation and prospective memory failure and team resource management to improve communication and the generation of collective mental models. Critical incident reporting systems (CIRS) provide the opportunity to learn from previous incidents without resulting in injury to patients. Information technology (IT) support systems, such as the computerized physician order entry system, assist in the prevention of medication errors by providing information on dosage, pharmacological interactions, side effects and contraindications of medications.The major challenges for quality and risk management, for the heads of departments and the executive board is the implementation and support of the described actions and a sustained guidance of the staff involved in the modification management process. The global trigger tool is suitable for improving transparency and objectifying the frequency of medical errors.

Testing the Recognition and Perception of Errors in Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandenburg, Laura C.

2015-01-01

This study tests the recognition of errors in context and whether the presence of errors affects the reader's perception of the writer's ethos. In an experimental, posttest only design, participants were randomly assigned a memo to read in an online survey: one version with errors and one version without. Of the six intentional errors in version…

Exploring Measurement Error with Cookies: A Real and Virtual Approach via Interactive Excel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinex, Scott A; Gage, Barbara A.; Beck, Peggy J.

2007-01-01

A simple, guided-inquiry investigation using stacked sandwich cookies is employed to develop a simple linear mathematical model and to explore measurement error by incorporating errors as part of the investigation. Both random and systematic errors are presented. The model and errors are then investigated further by engaging with an interactive…

Estimation of population mean in the presence of measurement error and non response under stratified random sampling

PubMed Central

Shabbir, Javid

2018-01-01

In the present paper we propose an improved class of estimators in the presence of measurement error and non-response under stratified random sampling for estimating the finite population mean. The theoretical and numerical studies reveal that the proposed class of estimators performs better than other existing estimators. PMID:29401519

Perceptions of Randomness: Why Three Heads Are Better than Four

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hahn, Ulrike; Warren, Paul A.

2009-01-01

A long tradition of psychological research has lamented the systematic errors and biases in people's perception of the characteristics of sequences generated by a random mechanism such as a coin toss. It is proposed that once the likely nature of people's actual experience of such processes is taken into account, these "errors" and "biases"…

Assessment of Visual Status of the Aeta, a Hunter-Gatherer Population of the Philippines (An AOS Thesis)

PubMed Central

Allingham, R. Rand

2008-01-01

Purpose A screening study was performed to assess levels of visual impairment and blindness among a representative sample of older members of the Aeta, an indigenous hunter-gatherer population living on the island of Luzon in the Philippines. Methods Unrelated older Aeta couples were randomly invited to participate in a visual screening study. All consented individuals had ocular history, medical history, complete ophthalmic examination, height, weight, and blood pressure taken. Results A total of 225 individuals were screened from 4 villages. Visual acuity, both uncorrected and pinhole corrected, was significantly worse among older vs younger age-groups for women, men, and when combined (P < .001). Visual impairment was present in 48% of uncorrected and 43% of pinhole corrected eyes in the oldest age-group. Six percent of the screened population was bilaterally blind. The major causes of blindness were readily treatable. The most common etiologies as a proportion of blind eyes were cataract (66%), refractive error (20%), and trauma (7%). No cases of primary open-angle, primary angle-closure, or exfoliation glaucoma were observed in this population. Discussion Visual impairment and blindness were common in the Aeta population. Primary forms of glaucoma, a major cause of blindness found in most population-based studies, were not observed. The absence of primary glaucoma in this population may reflect random sampling error. However, based on similar findings in the Australian Aborigine, this raises the possibility that these two similar populations may share genetic and/or environmental factors that are protective for glaucoma.. PMID:19277240

Minimizing Artifacts and Biases in Chamber-Based Measurements of Soil Respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.; Savage, K.

2001-05-01

Soil respiration is one of the largest and most important fluxes of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. The objectives of this paper are to review concerns about uncertainties of chamber-based measurements of CO2 emissions from soils, to evaluate the direction and magnitude of these potential errors, and to explain procedures that minimize these errors and biases. Disturbance of diffusion gradients cause underestimate of fluxes by less than 15% in most cases, and can be partially corrected for with curve fitting and/or can be minimized by using brief measurement periods. Under-pressurization or over-pressurization of the chamber caused by flow restrictions in air circulating designs can cause large errors, but can also be avoided with properly sized chamber vents and unrestricted flows. Somewhat larger pressure differentials are observed under windy conditions, and the accuracy of measurements made under such conditions needs more research. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity can be addressed with appropriate chamber sizes and numbers and frequency of sampling. For example, means of 8 randomly chosen flux measurements from a population of 36 measurements made with 300 cm2 chambers in tropical forests and pastures were within 25% of the full population mean 98% of the time and were within 10% of the full population mean 70% of the time. Comparisons of chamber-based measurements with tower-based measurements of total ecosystem respiration require analysis of the scale of variation within the purported tower footprint. In a forest at Howland, Maine, the differences in soil respiration rates among very poorly drained and well drained soils were large, but they mostly were fortuitously cancelled when evaluated for purported tower footprints of 600-2100 m length. While all of these potential sources of measurement error and sampling biases must be carefully considered, properly designed and deployed chambers provide a reliable means of accurately measuring soil respiration in terrestrial ecosystems.

Evaluation of near-miss and adverse events in radiation oncology using a comprehensive causal factor taxonomy.

PubMed

Spraker, Matthew B; Fain, Robert; Gopan, Olga; Zeng, Jing; Nyflot, Matthew; Jordan, Loucille; Kane, Gabrielle; Ford, Eric

Incident learning systems (ILSs) are a popular strategy for improving safety in radiation oncology (RO) clinics, but few reports focus on the causes of errors in RO. The goal of this study was to test a causal factor taxonomy developed in 2012 by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine and adopted for use in the RO: Incident Learning System (RO-ILS). Three hundred event reports were randomly selected from an institutional ILS database and Safety in Radiation Oncology (SAFRON), an international ILS. The reports were split into 3 groups of 100 events each: low-risk institutional, high-risk institutional, and SAFRON. Three raters retrospectively analyzed each event for contributing factors using the American Association of Physicists in Medicine taxonomy. No events were described by a single causal factor (median, 7). The causal factor taxonomy was found to be applicable for all events, but 4 causal factors were not described in the taxonomy: linear accelerator failure (n = 3), hardware/equipment failure (n = 2), failure to follow through with a quality improvement intervention (n = 1), and workflow documentation was misleading (n = 1). The most common causal factor categories contributing to events were similar in all event types. The most common specific causal factor to contribute to events was a "slip causing physical error." Poor human factors engineering was the only causal factor found to contribute more frequently to high-risk institutional versus low-risk institutional events. The taxonomy in the study was found to be applicable for all events and may be useful in root cause analyses and future studies. Communication and human behaviors were the most common errors affecting all types of events. Poor human factors engineering was found to specifically contribute to high-risk more than low-risk institutional events, and may represent a strategy for reducing errors in all types of events. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, C.J.; McVey, B.; Quimby, D.C.

The level of field errors in an FEL is an important determinant of its performance. We have computed 3D performance of a large laser subsystem subjected to field errors of various types. These calculations have been guided by simple models such as SWOOP. The technique of choice is utilization of the FELEX free electron laser code that now possesses extensive engineering capabilities. Modeling includes the ability to establish tolerances of various types: fast and slow scale field bowing, field error level, beam position monitor error level, gap errors, defocusing errors, energy slew, displacement and pointing errors. Many effects of thesemore » errors on relative gain and relative power extraction are displayed and are the essential elements of determining an error budget. The random errors also depend on the particular random number seed used in the calculation. The simultaneous display of the performance versus error level of cases with multiple seeds illustrates the variations attributable to stochasticity of this model. All these errors are evaluated numerically for comprehensive engineering of the system. In particular, gap errors are found to place requirements beyond mechanical tolerances of {plus minus}25{mu}m, and amelioration of these may occur by a procedure utilizing direct measurement of the magnetic fields at assembly time. 4 refs., 12 figs.« less

Investigation of interfractional shape variations based on statistical point distribution model for prostate cancer radiation therapy.

PubMed

Shibayama, Yusuke; Arimura, Hidetaka; Hirose, Taka-Aki; Nakamoto, Takahiro; Sasaki, Tomonari; Ohga, Saiji; Matsushita, Norimasa; Umezu, Yoshiyuki; Nakamura, Yasuhiko; Honda, Hiroshi

2017-05-01

The setup errors and organ motion errors pertaining to clinical target volume (CTV) have been considered as two major causes of uncertainties in the determination of the CTV-to-planning target volume (PTV) margins for prostate cancer radiation treatment planning. We based our study on the assumption that interfractional target shape variations are not negligible as another source of uncertainty for the determination of precise CTV-to-PTV margins. Thus, we investigated the interfractional shape variations of CTVs based on a point distribution model (PDM) for prostate cancer radiation therapy. To quantitate the shape variations of CTVs, the PDM was applied for the contours of 4 types of CTV regions (low-risk, intermediate- risk, high-risk CTVs, and prostate plus entire seminal vesicles), which were delineated by considering prostate cancer risk groups on planning computed tomography (CT) and cone beam CT (CBCT) images of 73 fractions of 10 patients. The standard deviations (SDs) of the interfractional random errors for shape variations were obtained from covariance matrices based on the PDMs, which were generated from vertices of triangulated CTV surfaces. The correspondences between CTV surface vertices were determined based on a thin-plate spline robust point matching algorithm. The systematic error for shape variations was defined as the average deviation between surfaces of an average CTV and planning CTVs, and the random error as the average deviation of CTV surface vertices for fractions from an average CTV surface. The means of the SDs of the systematic errors for the four types of CTVs ranged from 1.0 to 2.0 mm along the anterior direction, 1.2 to 2.6 mm along the posterior direction, 1.0 to 2.5 mm along the superior direction, 0.9 to 1.9 mm along the inferior direction, 0.9 to 2.6 mm along the right direction, and 1.0 to 3.0 mm along the left direction. Concerning the random errors, the means of the SDs ranged from 0.9 to 1.2 mm along the anterior direction, 1.0 to 1.4 mm along the posterior direction, 0.9 to 1.3 mm along the superior direction, 0.8 to 1.0 mm along the inferior direction, 0.8 to 0.9 mm along the right direction, and 0.8 to 1.0 mm along the left direction. Since the shape variations were not negligible for intermediate and high-risk CTVs, they should be taken into account for the determination of the CTV-to-PTV margins in radiation treatment planning of prostate cancer. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Statistical model for speckle pattern optimization.

PubMed

Su, Yong; Zhang, Qingchuan; Gao, Zeren

2017-11-27

Image registration is the key technique of optical metrologies such as digital image correlation (DIC), particle image velocimetry (PIV), and speckle metrology. Its performance depends critically on the quality of image pattern, and thus pattern optimization attracts extensive attention. In this article, a statistical model is built to optimize speckle patterns that are composed of randomly positioned speckles. It is found that the process of speckle pattern generation is essentially a filtered Poisson process. The dependence of measurement errors (including systematic errors, random errors, and overall errors) upon speckle pattern generation parameters is characterized analytically. By minimizing the errors, formulas of the optimal speckle radius are presented. Although the primary motivation is from the field of DIC, we believed that scholars in other optical measurement communities, such as PIV and speckle metrology, will benefit from these discussions.

Error reduction study employing a pseudo-random binary sequence for use in acoustic pyrometry of gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewan, B. C. R.; Ireland, S. N.

2000-12-01

Acoustic pyrometry uses the temperature dependence of sound speed in materials to measure temperature. This is normally achieved by measuring the transit time for a sound signal over a known path length and applying the material relation between temperature and velocity to extract an "average" temperature. Sources of error associated with the measurement of mean transit time are discussed in implementing the technique in gases, one of the principal causes being background noise in typical industrial environments. A number of transmitted signal and processing strategies which can be used in the area are examined and the expected error in mean transit time associated with each technique is quantified. Transmitted signals included pulses, pure frequencies, chirps, and pseudorandom binary sequences (prbs), while processing involves edge detection and correlation. Errors arise through the misinterpretation of the positions of edge arrival or correlation peaks due to instantaneous deviations associated with background noise and these become more severe as signal to noise amplitude ratios decrease. Population errors in the mean transit time are estimated for the different measurement strategies and it is concluded that PRBS combined with correlation can provide the lowest errors when operating in high noise environments. The operation of an instrument based on PRBS transmitted signals is described and test results under controlled noise conditions are presented. These confirm the value of the strategy and demonstrate that measurements can be made with signal to noise amplitude ratios down to 0.5.

The decline and fall of Type II error rates

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

2005-01-01

For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

Asymmetric Memory Circuit Would Resist Soft Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G.; Perlman, Marvin

1990-01-01

Some nonlinear error-correcting codes more efficient in presence of asymmetry. Combination of circuit-design and coding concepts expected to make integrated-circuit random-access memories more resistant to "soft" errors (temporary bit errors, also called "single-event upsets" due to ionizing radiation). Integrated circuit of new type made deliberately more susceptible to one kind of bit error than to other, and associated error-correcting code adapted to exploit this asymmetry in error probabilities.

Ursodeoxycholic acid for primary biliary cirrhosis.

PubMed

Rudic, Jelena S; Poropat, Goran; Krstic, Miodrag N; Bjelakovic, Goran; Gluud, Christian

2012-12-12

Ursodeoxycholic acid is administered to patients with primary biliary cirrhosis, a chronic progressive inflammatory autoimmune-mediated liver disease with unknown aetiology. Despite its controversial effects, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved its usage for primary biliary cirrhosis. To assess the beneficial and harmful effects of ursodeoxycholic acid in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. We searched for eligible randomised trials in The Cochrane Hepato-Biliary Group Controlled Trials Register, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, LILACS, Clinicaltrials.gov, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. The literature search was performed until January 2012. Randomised clinical trials assessing the beneficial and harmful effects of ursodeoxycholic acid versus placebo or 'no intervention' in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Two authors independently extracted data. Continuous data were analysed using mean difference (MD) and standardised mean difference (SMD). Dichotomous data were analysed using risk ratio (RR). Meta-analyses were conducted using both a random-effects model and a fixed-effect model, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Random-effects model meta-regression was used to assess the effects of covariates across the trials. Trial sequential analysis was used to assess risk of random errors (play of chance). Risks of bias (systematic error) in the included trials were assessed according to Cochrane methodology bias domains. Sixteen randomised clinical trials with 1447 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis were included. One trial had low risk of bias, and the remaining fifteen had high risk of bias. Fourteen trials compared ursodeoxycholic acid with placebo and two trials compared ursodeoxycholic acid with 'no intervention'. The percentage of patients with advanced primary biliary cirrhosis at baseline varied from 15% to 83%, with a median of 51%. The duration of the trials varied from 3 to 92 months, with a median of 24 months. The results showed no significant difference in effect between ursodeoxycholic acid and placebo or 'no intervention' on all-cause mortality (45/699 (6.4%) versus 46/692 (6.6%); RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.42, I² = 0%; 14 trials); on all-cause mortality or liver transplantation (86/713 (12.1%) versus 89/706 (12.6%); RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.25, I² = 15%; 15 trials); on serious adverse events (94/695 (13.5%) versus 107/687 (15.6%); RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.12, I² = 23%; 14 trials); or on non-serious adverse events (27/643 (4.2%) versus 18/634 (2.8%); RR 1.46, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.56, I² = 0%; 12 trials). The random-effects model meta-regression showed that the risk of bias of the trials, disease severity of patients at entry, ursodeoxycholic acid dosage, and trial duration were not significantly associated with the intervention effects on all-cause mortality, or on all-cause mortality or liver transplantation. Ursodeoxycholic acid did not influence the number of patients with pruritus (168/321 (52.3%) versus 166/309 (53.7%); RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.09, I² = 0%; 6 trials) or with fatigue (170/252 (64.9%) versus 174/244 (71.3%); RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.00, I² = 62%; 4 trials). Two trials reported the number of patients with jaundice and showed a significant effect of ursodeoxycholic acid versus placebo or no intervention in a fixed-effect meta-analysis (5/99 (5.1%) versus 15/99 (15.2%); RR 0.35, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.90, I² = 51%; 2 trials). The result was not supported by the random-effects meta-analysis (RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.06 to 4.95). Portal pressure, varices, bleeding varices, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy were not significantly affected by ursodeoxycholic acid. Ursodeoxycholic acid significantly decreased serum bilirubin concentration (MD -8.69 µmol/l, 95% CI -13.90 to -3.48, I² = 0%; 881 patients; 9 trials) and activity of serum alkaline phosphatases (MD -257.09 U/L, 95% CI -306.25 to -207.92, I² = 0%; 754 patients, 9 trials) compared with placebo or no intervention. These results were supported by trial sequential analysis. Ursodeoxycholic acid also seemed to improve serum levels of gamma-glutamyltransferase, aminotransferases, total cholesterol, and plasma immunoglobulin M concentration. Ursodeoxycholic acid seemed to have a beneficial effect on worsening of histological stage (random; 66/281 (23.5%) versus 103/270 (38.2%); RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.88, I² = 35%; 7 trials). This systematic review did not demonstrate any significant benefits of ursodeoxycholic acid on all-cause mortality, all-cause mortality or liver transplantation, pruritus, or fatigue in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Ursodeoxycholic acid seemed to have a beneficial effect on liver biochemistry measures and on histological progression compared with the control group. All but one of the included trials had high risk of bias, and there are risks of outcome reporting bias and risks of random errors as well. Randomised trials with low risk of bias and low risks of random errors examining the effects of ursodeoxycholic acid for primary biliary cirrhosis are needed.

[Monitoring medication errors in personalised dispensing using the Sentinel Surveillance System method].

PubMed

Pérez-Cebrián, M; Font-Noguera, I; Doménech-Moral, L; Bosó-Ribelles, V; Romero-Boyero, P; Poveda-Andrés, J L

2011-01-01

To assess the efficacy of a new quality control strategy based on daily randomised sampling and monitoring a Sentinel Surveillance System (SSS) medication cart, in order to identify medication errors and their origin at different levels of the process. Prospective quality control study with one year follow-up. A SSS medication cart was randomly selected once a week and double-checked before dispensing medication. Medication errors were recorded before it was taken to the relevant hospital ward. Information concerning complaints after receiving medication and 24-hour monitoring were also noted. Type and origin error data were assessed by a Unit Dose Quality Control Group, which proposed relevant improvement measures. Thirty-four SSS carts were assessed, including 5130 medication lines and 9952 dispensed doses, corresponding to 753 patients. Ninety erroneous lines (1.8%) and 142 mistaken doses (1.4%) were identified at the Pharmacy Department. The most frequent error was dose duplication (38%) and its main cause inappropriate management and forgetfulness (69%). Fifty medication complaints (6.6% of patients) were mainly due to new treatment at admission (52%), and 41 (0.8% of all medication lines), did not completely match the prescription (0.6% lines) as recorded by the Pharmacy Department. Thirty-seven (4.9% of patients) medication complaints due to changes at admission and 32 matching errors (0.6% medication lines) were recorded. The main cause also was inappropriate management and forgetfulness (24%). The simultaneous recording of incidences due to complaints and new medication coincided in 33.3%. In addition, 433 (4.3%) of dispensed doses were returned to the Pharmacy Department. After the Unit Dose Quality Control Group conducted their feedback analysis, 64 improvement measures for Pharmacy Department nurses, 37 for pharmacists, and 24 for the hospital ward were introduced. The SSS programme has proven to be useful as a quality control strategy to identify Unit Dose Distribution System errors at initial, intermediate and final stages of the process, improving the involvement of the Pharmacy Department and ward nurses. Copyright © 2009 SEFH. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of refractive error in malay primary school children in suburban area of Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia.

PubMed

Hashim, Syaratul-Emma; Tan, Hui-Ken; Wan-Hazabbah, W H; Ibrahim, Mohtar

2008-11-01

Refractive error remains one of the primary causes of visual impairment in children worldwide, and the prevalence of refractive error varies widely. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of refractive error and study the possible associated factors inducing refractive error among primary school children of Malay ethnicity in the suburban area of Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia. A school-based cross-sectional study was performed from January to July 2006 by random selection on Standard 1 to Standard 6 students of 10 primary schools in the Kota Bharu district. Visual acuity assessment was measured using logMAR ETDRS chart. Positive predictive value of uncorrected visual acuity equal or worse than 20/40, was used as a cut-off point for further evaluation by automated refraction and retinoscopic refraction. A total of 840 students were enumerated but only 705 were examined. The prevalence of uncorrected visual impairment was seen in 54 (7.7%) children. The main cause of the uncorrected visual impairment was refractive error which contributed to 90.7% of the total, and with 7.0% prevalence for the studied population. Myopia is the most common type of refractive error among children aged 6 to 12 years with prevalence of 5.4%, followed by hyperopia at 1.0% and astigmatism at 0.6%. A significant positive correlation was noted between myopia development with increasing age (P <0.005), more hours spent on reading books (P <0.005) and background history of siblings with glasses (P <0.005) and whose parents are of higher educational level (P <0.005). Malays in suburban Kelantan (5.4%) have the lowest prevalence of myopia compared with Malays in the metropolitan cities of Kuala Lumpur (9.2%) and Singapore (22.1%). The ethnicity-specific prevalence rate of myopia was the lowest among Malays in Kota Bharu, followed by Kuala Lumpur, and is the highest among Singaporean Malays. Better socio-economic factors could have contributed to higher myopia rates in the cities, since the genetic background of these ethnic Malays are similar.

Maximum Likelihood Time-of-Arrival Estimation of Optical Pulses via Photon-Counting Photodetectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erkmen, Baris I.; Moision, Bruce E.

2010-01-01

Many optical imaging, ranging, and communications systems rely on the estimation of the arrival time of an optical pulse. Recently, such systems have been increasingly employing photon-counting photodetector technology, which changes the statistics of the observed photocurrent. This requires time-of-arrival estimators to be developed and their performances characterized. The statistics of the output of an ideal photodetector, which are well modeled as a Poisson point process, were considered. An analytical model was developed for the mean-square error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator, demonstrating two phenomena that cause deviations from the minimum achievable error at low signal power. An approximation was derived to the threshold at which the ML estimator essentially fails to provide better than a random guess of the pulse arrival time. Comparing the analytic model performance predictions to those obtained via simulations, it was verified that the model accurately predicts the ML performance over all regimes considered. There is little prior art that attempts to understand the fundamental limitations to time-of-arrival estimation from Poisson statistics. This work establishes both a simple mathematical description of the error behavior, and the associated physical processes that yield this behavior. Previous work on mean-square error characterization for ML estimators has predominantly focused on additive Gaussian noise. This work demonstrates that the discrete nature of the Poisson noise process leads to a distinctly different error behavior.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part 1; Method and Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Yang, Song; Petty, Grant W.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Bell, Thomas L.; Braun, Scott A.; Wang, Yansen; Lang, Stephen E.; Johnson, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Theoretical analysis on the measurement errors of local 2D DIC: Part I temporal and spatial uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Yueqi; Lava, Pascal; Reu, Phillip

This study presents a theoretical uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements by subset-based 2D-digital image correlation. A generalized solution to estimate the random error of displacement measurement is presented. The obtained solution suggests that the random error of displacement measurements is determined by the image noise, the summation of the intensity gradient in a subset, the subpixel part of displacement, and the interpolation scheme. The proposed method is validated with virtual digital image correlation tests.

Theoretical analysis on the measurement errors of local 2D DIC: Part I temporal and spatial uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements

DOE PAGES

Wang, Yueqi; Lava, Pascal; Reu, Phillip; ...

2015-12-23

This study presents a theoretical uncertainty quantification of displacement measurements by subset-based 2D-digital image correlation. A generalized solution to estimate the random error of displacement measurement is presented. The obtained solution suggests that the random error of displacement measurements is determined by the image noise, the summation of the intensity gradient in a subset, the subpixel part of displacement, and the interpolation scheme. The proposed method is validated with virtual digital image correlation tests.

The Delicate Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Changwei; Zheng, Yuan

2017-05-01

This paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecasting based on the similar day method, correlation coefficient and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to achieve the precision analysis of load variation from three aspects (typical day, correlation coefficient, spectral analysis) and three dimensions (time dimension, industry dimensions, the main factors influencing the load characteristic such as national policies, regional economic, holidays, electricity and so on). First, the branch algorithm one-class-SVM is adopted to selection the typical day. Second, correlation coefficient method is used to obtain the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, which can reflect the influence caused by the customer macro policy and the scale of production to the electricity price. Third, Fourier transform residual error correction model is proposed to reflect the nature of load extracting from the residual error. Finally, simulation result indicates the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.

A path planning method used in fluid jet polishing eliminating lightweight mirror imprinting effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenzong; Fan, Bin; Shi, Chunyan; Wang, Jia; Zhuo, Bin

2014-08-01

With the development of space technology, the design of optical system tends to large aperture lightweight mirror with high dimension-thickness ratio. However, when the lightweight mirror PV value is less than λ/10 , the surface will show wavy imprinting effect obviously. Imprinting effect introduced by head-tool pressure has become a technological barrier in high-precision lightweight mirror manufacturing. Fluid jet polishing can exclude outside pressure. Presently, machining tracks often used are grating type path, screw type path and pseudo-random path. On the edge of imprinting error, the speed of adjacent path points changes too fast, which causes the machine hard to reflect quickly, brings about new path error, and increases the polishing time due to superfluous path. This paper presents a new planning path method to eliminate imprinting effect. Simulation results show that the path of the improved grating path can better eliminate imprinting effect compared to the general path.

Influence of non-ideal performance of lasers on displacement precision in single-grating heterodyne interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guochao; Xie, Xuedong; Yan, Shuhua

2010-10-01

Principle of the dual-wavelength single grating nanometer displacement measuring system, with a long range, high precision, and good stability, is presented. As a result of the nano-level high-precision displacement measurement, the error caused by a variety of adverse factors must be taken into account. In this paper, errors, due to the non-ideal performance of the dual-frequency laser, including linear error caused by wavelength instability and non-linear error caused by elliptic polarization of the laser, are mainly discussed and analyzed. On the basis of theoretical modeling, the corresponding error formulas are derived as well. Through simulation, the limit value of linear error caused by wavelength instability is 2nm, and on the assumption that 0.85 x T = , 1 Ty = of the polarizing beam splitter(PBS), the limit values of nonlinear-error caused by elliptic polarization are 1.49nm, 2.99nm, 4.49nm while the non-orthogonal angle is selected correspondingly at 1°, 2°, 3° respectively. The law of the error change is analyzed based on different values of Tx and Ty .

Error Analysis of Indirect Broadband Monitoring of Multilayer Optical Coatings using Computer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Z. V.; Labusov, V. A.

2017-11-01

Results of studying the errors of indirect monitoring by means of computer simulations are reported. The monitoring method is based on measuring spectra of reflection from additional monitoring substrates in a wide spectral range. Special software (Deposition Control Simulator) is developed, which allows one to estimate the influence of the monitoring system parameters (noise of the photodetector array, operating spectral range of the spectrometer and errors of its calibration in terms of wavelengths, drift of the radiation source intensity, and errors in the refractive index of deposited materials) on the random and systematic errors of deposited layer thickness measurements. The direct and inverse problems of multilayer coatings are solved using the OptiReOpt library. Curves of the random and systematic errors of measurements of the deposited layer thickness as functions of the layer thickness are presented for various values of the system parameters. Recommendations are given on using the indirect monitoring method for the purpose of reducing the layer thickness measurement error.

Error analysis and algorithm implementation for an improved optical-electric tracking device based on MEMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hong; Wu, Qian-zhong

2013-09-01

In order to improve the precision of optical-electric tracking device, proposing a kind of improved optical-electric tracking device based on MEMS, in allusion to the tracking error of gyroscope senor and the random drift, According to the principles of time series analysis of random sequence, establish AR model of gyro random error based on Kalman filter algorithm, then the output signals of gyro are multiple filtered with Kalman filter. And use ARM as micro controller servo motor is controlled by fuzzy PID full closed loop control algorithm, and add advanced correction and feed-forward links to improve response lag of angle input, Free-forward can make output perfectly follow input. The function of lead compensation link is to shorten the response of input signals, so as to reduce errors. Use the wireless video monitor module and remote monitoring software (Visual Basic 6.0) to monitor servo motor state in real time, the video monitor module gathers video signals, and the wireless video module will sent these signals to upper computer, so that show the motor running state in the window of Visual Basic 6.0. At the same time, take a detailed analysis to the main error source. Through the quantitative analysis of the errors from bandwidth and gyro sensor, it makes the proportion of each error in the whole error more intuitive, consequently, decrease the error of the system. Through the simulation and experiment results shows the system has good following characteristic, and it is very valuable for engineering application.

Error Sources in Asteroid Astrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owen, William M., Jr.

2000-01-01

Asteroid astrometry, like any other scientific measurement process, is subject to both random and systematic errors, not all of which are under the observer's control. To design an astrometric observing program or to improve an existing one requires knowledge of the various sources of error, how different errors affect one's results, and how various errors may be minimized by careful observation or data reduction techniques.

Correcting the Standard Errors of 2-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimators for Mendelian Randomization Studies.

PubMed

Palmer, Tom M; Holmes, Michael V; Keating, Brendan J; Sheehan, Nuala A

2017-11-01

Mendelian randomization studies use genotypes as instrumental variables to test for and estimate the causal effects of modifiable risk factors on outcomes. Two-stage residual inclusion (TSRI) estimators have been used when researchers are willing to make parametric assumptions. However, researchers are currently reporting uncorrected or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors for these estimates. We compared several different forms of the standard error for linear and logistic TSRI estimates in simulations and in real-data examples. Among others, we consider standard errors modified from the approach of Newey (1987), Terza (2016), and bootstrapping. In our simulations Newey, Terza, bootstrap, and corrected 2-stage least squares (in the linear case) standard errors gave the best results in terms of coverage and type I error. In the real-data examples, the Newey standard errors were 0.5% and 2% larger than the unadjusted standard errors for the linear and logistic TSRI estimators, respectively. We show that TSRI estimators with modified standard errors have correct type I error under the null. Researchers should report TSRI estimates with modified standard errors instead of reporting unadjusted or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Prevalence and Causes of Visual Impairment and Blindness among Cocoa Farmers in Ghana.

PubMed

Boadi-Kusi, Samuel Bert; Hansraj, Rekha; Mashige, Khathutshelo Percy; Osafo-Kwaako, Alfred; Ilechie, Alex Azuka; Abokyi, Samuel

2017-02-01

To determine the prevalence and causes of visual impairment and blindness among cocoa farmers in Ghana in order to formulate early intervention strategies. A cross-sectional study using multistage random sampling from four cocoa growing districts in Ghana was conducted from November 2013 to April 2014. A total of 512 cocoa farmers aged 40 years and older were interviewed and examined. The brief interview questionnaire was administered to elicit information on the demographics and socioeconomic details of participants. The examination included assessment of visual acuity (VA), retinoscopy, subjective refraction, direct ophthalmoscopy, slit-lamp biomicroscopy and intraocular pressure (IOP). For quality assurance, a random sample of cocoa farmers were selected and re-examined independently. Moderate to severe visual impairment (VA <6/18 to 3/60 in the better-seeing eye) was present in 89 participants (17.4%) and 27 (5.3%) were blind (presenting VA <3/60 in the better eye) defined using presenting VA. The main causes of visual impairment were cataract (45, 38.8%), uncorrected refractive error (42, 36.2%), posterior segment disorders (15, 12.9%), and corneal opacity (11, 9.5%). The prevalence of visual impairment and blindness among cocoa farmers in Ghana is relatively high. The major causes of visual impairment and blindness are largely preventable or treatable, indicating the need for early eye care service interventions.

Observer detection of image degradation caused by irreversible data compression processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ji; Flynn, Michael J.; Gross, Barry; Spizarny, David

1991-05-01

Irreversible data compression methods have been proposed to reduce the data storage and communication requirements of digital imaging systems. In general, the error produced by compression increases as an algorithm''s compression ratio is increased. We have studied the relationship between compression ratios and the detection of induced error using radiologic observers. The nature of the errors was characterized by calculating the power spectrum of the difference image. In contrast with studies designed to test whether detected errors alter diagnostic decisions, this study was designed to test whether observers could detect the induced error. A paired-film observer study was designed to test whether induced errors were detected. The study was conducted with chest radiographs selected and ranked for subtle evidence of interstitial disease, pulmonary nodules, or pneumothoraces. Images were digitized at 86 microns (4K X 5K) and 2K X 2K regions were extracted. A full-frame discrete cosine transform method was used to compress images at ratios varying between 6:1 and 60:1. The decompressed images were reprinted next to the original images in a randomized order with a laser film printer. The use of a film digitizer and a film printer which can reproduce all of the contrast and detail in the original radiograph makes the results of this study insensitive to instrument performance and primarily dependent on radiographic image quality. The results of this study define conditions for which errors associated with irreversible compression cannot be detected by radiologic observers. The results indicate that an observer can detect the errors introduced by this compression algorithm for compression ratios of 10:1 (1.2 bits/pixel) or higher.

Health plan auditing: 100-percent-of-claims vs. random-sample audits.

PubMed

Sillup, George P; Klimberg, Ronald K

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the relative efficacy of two different methodologies for auditing self-funded medical claim expenses: 100-percent-of-claims auditing versus random-sampling auditing. Multiple data sets of claim errors or 'exceptions' from two Fortune-100 corporations were analysed and compared to 100 simulated audits of 300- and 400-claim random samples. Random-sample simulations failed to identify a significant number and amount of the errors that ranged from $200,000 to $750,000. These results suggest that health plan expenses of corporations could be significantly reduced if they audited 100% of claims and embraced a zero-defect approach.

Enhanced orbit determination filter sensitivity analysis: Error budget development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estefan, J. A.; Burkhart, P. D.

1994-01-01

An error budget analysis is presented which quantifies the effects of different error sources in the orbit determination process when the enhanced orbit determination filter, recently developed, is used to reduce radio metric data. The enhanced filter strategy differs from more traditional filtering methods in that nearly all of the principal ground system calibration errors affecting the data are represented as filter parameters. Error budget computations were performed for a Mars Observer interplanetary cruise scenario for cases in which only X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler data were used to determine the spacecraft's orbit, X-band ranging data were used exclusively, and a combined set in which the ranging data were used in addition to the Doppler data. In all three cases, the filter model was assumed to be a correct representation of the physical world. Random nongravitational accelerations were found to be the largest source of error contributing to the individual error budgets. Other significant contributors, depending on the data strategy used, were solar-radiation pressure coefficient uncertainty, random earth-orientation calibration errors, and Deep Space Network (DSN) station location uncertainty.

Prevalence and causes of blindness and low vision among adults in Fiji.

PubMed

Ramke, Jacqueline; Brian, Garry; Maher, Louise; Qalo Qoqonokana, Mundi; Szetu, John

2012-07-01

  To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and low vision among adults aged ≥40 years in Fiji.   Population-based cross-sectional study.   Adults aged ≥40 years in Viti Levu, Fiji.   A population-based cross-sectional survey used multistage cluster random sampling to identify 34 clusters of 40 people. A cause of vision loss was determined for each eye with presenting vision worse than 6/18.   Blindness (better eye presenting vision worse than 6/60), low vision (better eye presenting vision worse than 6/18, but 6/60 or better).   Of 1892 people enumerated, 1381 participated (73.0%). Adjusting sample data for ethnicity, gender, age and domicile, the prevalence of blindness was 2.6% (95% confidence interval 1.7, 3.4) and low vision was 7.2% (95% confidence interval 5.9, 8.6) among adults aged ≥40 years. On multivariate analysis, being ≥70 years was a risk factor for blindness, but ethnicity, gender and urban/rural domicile were not. Being Indo-Fijian, female and older were risk factors for vision impairment (better eye presenting vision worse than 6/18). Cataract was the most common cause of bilateral blindness (71.1%). Among participants with low vision, uncorrected refractive error caused 63.3% and cataract was responsible for 25.0%.   Strategies that provide accessible cataract and refractive error services producing good quality outcomes will likely have the greatest impact on reducing vision impairment. © 2011 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2011 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Does Mckuer's Law Hold for Heart Rate Control via Biofeedback Display?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courter, B. J.; Jex, H. R.

1984-01-01

Some persons can control their pulse rate with the aid of a biofeedback display. If the biofeedback display is modified to show the error between a command pulse-rate and the measured rate, a compensatory (error correcting) heart rate tracking control loop can be created. The dynamic response characteristics of this control loop when subjected to step and quasi-random disturbances were measured. The control loop includes a beat-to-beat cardiotachmeter differenced with a forcing function from a quasi-random input generator; the resulting error pulse-rate is displayed as feedback. The subject acts to null the displayed pulse-rate error, thereby closing a compensatory control loop. McRuer's Law should hold for this case. A few subjects already skilled in voluntary pulse-rate control were tested for heart-rate control response. Control-law properties are derived, such as: crossover frequency, stability margins, and closed-loop bandwidth. These are evaluated for a range of forcing functions and for step as well as random disturbances.

Synthesis of hover autopilots for rotary-wing VTOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, W. E.; Bryson, A. E., Jr.

1972-01-01

The practical situation is considered where imperfect information on only a few rotor and fuselage state variables is available. Filters are designed to estimate all the state variables from noisy measurements of fuselage pitch/roll angles and from noisy measurements of both fuselage and rotor pitch/roll angles. The mean square response of the vehicle to a very gusty, random wind is computed using various filter/controllers and is found to be quite satisfactory although, of course, not so good as when one has perfect information (idealized case). The second part of the report considers precision hover over a point on the ground. A vehicle model without rotor dynamics is used and feedback signals in position and integral of position error are added. The mean square response of the vehicle to a very gusty, random wind is computed, assuming perfect information feedback, and is found to be excellent. The integral error feedback gives zero position error for a steady wind, and smaller position error for a random wind.

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Selecting Statistical Quality Control Procedures for Limiting the Impact of Increases in Analytical Random Error on Patient Safety.

PubMed

Yago, Martín

2017-05-01

QC planning based on risk management concepts can reduce the probability of harming patients due to an undetected out-of-control error condition. It does this by selecting appropriate QC procedures to decrease the number of erroneous results reported. The selection can be easily made by using published nomograms for simple QC rules when the out-of-control condition results in increased systematic error. However, increases in random error also occur frequently and are difficult to detect, which can result in erroneously reported patient results. A statistical model was used to construct charts for the 1 ks and X /χ 2 rules. The charts relate the increase in the number of unacceptable patient results reported due to an increase in random error with the capability of the measurement procedure. They thus allow for QC planning based on the risk of patient harm due to the reporting of erroneous results. 1 ks Rules are simple, all-around rules. Their ability to deal with increases in within-run imprecision is minimally affected by the possible presence of significant, stable, between-run imprecision. X /χ 2 rules perform better when the number of controls analyzed during each QC event is increased to improve QC performance. Using nomograms simplifies the selection of statistical QC procedures to limit the number of erroneous patient results reported due to an increase in analytical random error. The selection largely depends on the presence or absence of stable between-run imprecision. © 2017 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Meta-analysis in evidence-based healthcare: a paradigm shift away from random effects is overdue.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Thalib, Lukman; Barendregt, Jan J

2017-12-01

Each year up to 20 000 systematic reviews and meta-analyses are published whose results influence healthcare decisions, thus making the robustness and reliability of meta-analytic methods one of the world's top clinical and public health priorities. The evidence synthesis makes use of either fixed-effect or random-effects statistical methods. The fixed-effect method has largely been replaced by the random-effects method as heterogeneity of study effects led to poor error estimation. However, despite the widespread use and acceptance of the random-effects method to correct this, it too remains unsatisfactory and continues to suffer from defective error estimation, posing a serious threat to decision-making in evidence-based clinical and public health practice. We discuss here the problem with the random-effects approach and demonstrate that there exist better estimators under the fixed-effect model framework that can achieve optimal error estimation. We argue for an urgent return to the earlier framework with updates that address these problems and conclude that doing so can markedly improve the reliability of meta-analytical findings and thus decision-making in healthcare.

Visual acuity and refractive errors in a suburban Danish population: Inter99 Eye Study.

PubMed

Kessel, Line; Hougaard, Jesper Leth; Mortensen, Claus; Jørgensen, Torben; Lund-Andersen, Henrik; Larsen, Michael

2004-02-01

The present study was performed as part of an epidemiological study, the Inter99 Eye Study. The aim of the study was to describe refractive errors and visual acuity (VA) in a suburban Danish population. The Inter99 Eye Study comprised 970 subjects aged 30-60 years and included a random control group as well as groups at high risk for ischaemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus. The present study presents VAs and refractive data from the control group (n = 502). All subjects completed a detailed questionnaire and underwent a standardized general physical and ophthalmic examination including determination of best corrected VA and subjective refractioning. Visual acuity

Simulating polarized light scattering in terrestrial snow based on bicontinuous random medium and Monte Carlo ray tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Chuan; Shi, Jiancheng

2014-01-01

To date, the light scattering models of snow consider very little about the real snow microstructures. The ideal spherical or other single shaped particle assumptions in previous snow light scattering models can cause error in light scattering modeling of snow and further cause errors in remote sensing inversion algorithms. This paper tries to build up a snow polarized reflectance model based on bicontinuous medium, with which the real snow microstructure is considered. The accurate specific surface area of bicontinuous medium can be analytically derived. The polarized Monte Carlo ray tracing technique is applied to the computer generated bicontinuous medium. With proper algorithms, the snow surface albedo, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) and polarized BRDF can be simulated. The validation of model predicted spectral albedo and bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) using experiment data shows good results. The relationship between snow surface albedo and snow specific surface area (SSA) were predicted, and this relationship can be used for future improvement of snow specific surface area (SSA) inversion algorithms. The model predicted polarized reflectance is validated and proved accurate, which can be further applied in polarized remote sensing.

Preliminary design of the redundant software experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Roy; Deimel, Lionel; Eckhardt, Dave, Jr.; Kelly, John; Knight, John; Lauterbach, Linda; Lee, Larry; Mcallister, Dave; Mchugh, John

1985-01-01

The goal of the present experiment is to characterize the fault distributions of highly reliable software replicates, constructed using techniques and environments which are similar to those used in comtemporary industrial software facilities. The fault distributions and their effect on the reliability of fault tolerant configurations of the software will be determined through extensive life testing of the replicates against carefully constructed randomly generated test data. Each detected error will be carefully analyzed to provide insight in to their nature and cause. A direct objective is to develop techniques for reducing the intensity of coincident errors, thus increasing the reliability gain which can be achieved with fault tolerance. Data on the reliability gains realized, and the cost of the fault tolerant configurations can be used to design a companion experiment to determine the cost effectiveness of the fault tolerant strategy. Finally, the data and analysis produced by this experiment will be valuable to the software engineering community as a whole because it will provide a useful insight into the nature and cause of hard to find, subtle faults which escape standard software engineering validation techniques and thus persist far into the software life cycle.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-10-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. Here, we are applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantify the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining data sets from several analysers and using simulations, we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time lag eliminates these effects (provided the time lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-03-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. We are here applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantifying the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time-lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time-lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining datasets from several analysers and using simulations we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time-lag eliminates these effects (provided the time-lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time-lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Recall bias in the assessment of exposure to mobile phones.

PubMed

Vrijheid, Martine; Armstrong, Bruce K; Bédard, Daniel; Brown, Julianne; Deltour, Isabelle; Iavarone, Ivano; Krewski, Daniel; Lagorio, Susanna; Moore, Stephen; Richardson, Lesley; Giles, Graham G; McBride, Mary; Parent, Marie-Elise; Siemiatycki, Jack; Cardis, Elisabeth

2009-05-01

Most studies of mobile phone use are case-control studies that rely on participants' reports of past phone use for their exposure assessment. Differential errors in recalled phone use are a major concern in such studies. INTERPHONE, a multinational case-control study of brain tumour risk and mobile phone use, included validation studies to quantify such errors and evaluate the potential for recall bias. Mobile phone records of 212 cases and 296 controls were collected from network operators in three INTERPHONE countries over an average of 2 years, and compared with mobile phone use reported at interview. The ratio of reported to recorded phone use was analysed as measure of agreement. Mean ratios were virtually the same for cases and controls: both underestimated number of calls by a factor of 0.81 and overestimated call duration by a factor of 1.4. For cases, but not controls, ratios increased with increasing time before the interview; however, these trends were based on few subjects with long-term data. Ratios increased by level of use. Random recall errors were large. In conclusion, there was little evidence for differential recall errors overall or in recent time periods. However, apparent overestimation by cases in more distant time periods could cause positive bias in estimates of disease risk associated with mobile phone use.

The effect of rainfall measurement uncertainties on rainfall-runoff processes modelling.

PubMed

Stransky, D; Bares, V; Fatka, P

2007-01-01

Rainfall data are a crucial input for various tasks concerning the wet weather period. Nevertheless, their measurement is affected by random and systematic errors that cause an underestimation of the rainfall volume. Therefore, the general objective of the presented work was to assess the credibility of measured rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of measurement errors on urban drainage modelling tasks. Within the project, the methodology of the tipping bucket rain gauge (TBR) was defined and assessed in terms of uncertainty analysis. A set of 18 TBRs was calibrated and the results were compared to the previous calibration. This enables us to evaluate the ageing of TBRs. A propagation of calibration and other systematic errors through the rainfall-runoff model was performed on experimental catchment. It was found that the TBR calibration is important mainly for tasks connected with the assessment of peak values and high flow durations. The omission of calibration leads to up to 30% underestimation and the effect of other systematic errors can add a further 15%. The TBR calibration should be done every two years in order to catch up the ageing of TBR mechanics. Further, the authors recommend to adjust the dynamic test duration proportionally to generated rainfall intensity.

Fault Tolerant State Machines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Gary R.; Taft, Stephanie

2004-01-01

State machines are commonly used to control sequential logic in FPGAs and ASKS. An errant state machine can cause considerable damage to the device it is controlling. For example in space applications, the FPGA might be controlling Pyros, which when fired at the wrong time will cause a mission failure. Even a well designed state machine can be subject to random errors us a result of SEUs from the radiation environment in space. There are various ways to encode the states of a state machine, and the type of encoding makes a large difference in the susceptibility of the state machine to radiation. In this paper we compare 4 methods of state machine encoding and find which method gives the best fault tolerance, as well as determining the resources needed for each method.

Prevalence of visual impairment due to uncorrected refractive error: Results from Delhi-Rapid Assessment of Visual Impairment Study.

PubMed

Senjam, Suraj Singh; Vashist, Praveen; Gupta, Noopur; Malhotra, Sumit; Misra, Vasundhara; Bhardwaj, Amit; Gupta, Vivek

2016-05-01

To estimate the prevalence of visual impairment (VI) due to uncorrected refractive error (URE) and to assess the barriers to utilization of services in the adult urban population of Delhi. A population-based rapid assessment of VI was conducted among people aged 40 years and above in 24 randomly selected clusters of East Delhi district. Presenting visual acuity (PVA) was assessed in each eye using Snellen's "E" chart. Pinhole examination was done if PVA was <20/60 in either eye and ocular examination to ascertain the cause of VI. Barriers to utilization of services for refractive error were recorded with questionnaires. Of 2421 individuals enumerated, 2331 (96%) individuals were examined. Females were 50.7% among them. The mean age of all examined subjects was 51.32 ± 10.5 years (standard deviation). VI in either eye due to URE was present in 275 individuals (11.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.5-13.1). URE was identified as the most common cause (53.4%) of VI. The overall prevalence of VI due to URE in the study population was 6.1% (95% CI: 5.1-7.0). The elder population as well as females were more likely to have VI due to URE (odds ratio [OR] = 12.3; P < 0.001 and OR = 1.5; P < 0.02). Lack of felt need was the most common reported barrier (31.5%). The prevalence of VI due to URE among the urban adult population of Delhi is still high despite the availability of abundant eye care facilities. The majority of reported barriers are related to human behavior and attitude toward the refractive error. Understanding these aspects will help in planning appropriate strategies to eliminate VI due to URE.

How to measure a-few-nanometer-small LER occurring in EUV lithography processed feature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawada, Hiroki; Kawasaki, Takahiro; Kakuta, Junichi; Ikota, Masami; Kondo, Tsuyoshi

2018-03-01

For EUV lithography features we want to decrease the dose and/or energy of CD-SEM's probe beam because LER decreases with severe resist-material's shrink. Under such conditions, however, measured LER increases from true LER, due to LER bias that is fake LER caused by random noise in SEM image. A gap error occurs between the right and the left LERs. In this work we propose new procedures to obtain true LER by excluding the LER bias from the measured LER. To verify it we propose a LER's reference-metrology using TEM.

ON NONSTATIONARY STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Erdal; Boore, David M.

1986-01-01

A seismological stochastic model for earthquake ground-motion description is presented. Seismological models are based on the physical properties of the source and the medium and have significant advantages over the widely used empirical models. The model discussed here provides a convenient form for estimating structural response by using random vibration theory. A commonly used random process for ground acceleration, filtered white-noise multiplied by an envelope function, introduces some errors in response calculations for structures whose periods are longer than the faulting duration. An alternate random process, filtered shot-noise process, eliminates these errors.

Acoustic Quality of the 40- by 80- Foot Wind Tunnel Test Section After Installation of a Deep Acoustic Lining

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soderman, Paul T.; Jaeger, Stephen M.; Hayes, Julie A.; Allen, Christopher S.

2002-01-01

A recessed, 42-inch deep acoustic lining has been designed and installed in the 40- by 80- Foot Wind Tunnel (40x80) test section to greatly improve the acoustic quality of the facility. This report describes the test section acoustic performance as determined by a detailed static calibration-all data were acquired without wind. Global measurements of sound decay from steady noise sources showed that the facility is suitable for acoustic studies of jet noise or similar randomly generated sound. The wall sound absorption, size of the facility, and averaging effects of wide band random noise all tend to minimize interference effects from wall reflections. The decay of white noise with distance was close to free field above 250 Hz. However, tonal sound data from propellers and fans, for example, will have an error band to be described that is caused by the sensitivity of tones to even weak interference. That error band could be minimized by use of directional instruments such as phased microphone arrays. Above 10 kHz, air absorption began to dominate the sound field in the large test section, reflections became weaker, and the test section tended toward an anechoic environment as frequency increased.

Prevelence and causes of visual impairment and blindness in older adults in an area of India with a high cataract surgical rate.

PubMed

Murthy, Gudlavalleti V S; Vashist, Praveen; John, Neena; Pokharel, Gopal; Ellwein, Leon B

2010-08-01

The cataract surgical rate (CSR) in Gujarat, India is reported to be above 10,000 per million population. This study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and causes of vision impairment/blindness among older adults in a high CSR area. Geographically defined cluster sampling was used in randomly selecting persons >or= 50 years of age in Navsari district. Subjects in 35 study clusters were enumerated and invited for measurement of presenting and best-corrected visual acuity and an ocular examination. The principal cause was identified for eyes with presenting visual acuity < 20/32. A total of 5158 eligible persons were enumerated and 4738 (91.9%) examined. Prevalence of presenting visual impairment < 20/63 to 20/200 in the better eye was 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.5-31.2) and 13.5% (95% CI: 12.0-14.9) with best correction. The prevalence of presenting bilateral blindness (< 20/200) was 6.9% (95% CI: 5.7-8.1), and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.5-3.7) with best correction. Presenting and best-corrected blindness were both associated with older age and illiteracy; gender and rural/urban residence were not significant. Cataract in one or both eyes was the main cause of bilateral blindness (82.6%), followed by retinal disorders (8.9%). Cataract (50.3%) and refractive error (35.4%) were the main causes in eyes with vision acuity < 20/63 to 20/200, and refractive error (86.6%) in eyes with acuity < 20/32 to 20/63. Visual impairment and blindness is a significant problem among the elderly in Gujarat. Despite a reportedly high CSR, cataract remains the predominant cause of blindness.

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

Classification of echolocation clicks from odontocetes in the Southern California Bight.

PubMed

Roch, Marie A; Klinck, Holger; Baumann-Pickering, Simone; Mellinger, David K; Qui, Simon; Soldevilla, Melissa S; Hildebrand, John A

2011-01-01

This study presents a system for classifying echolocation clicks of six species of odontocetes in the Southern California Bight: Visually confirmed bottlenose dolphins, short- and long-beaked common dolphins, Pacific white-sided dolphins, Risso's dolphins, and presumed Cuvier's beaked whales. Echolocation clicks are represented by cepstral feature vectors that are classified by Gaussian mixture models. A randomized cross-validation experiment is designed to provide conditions similar to those found in a field-deployed system. To prevent matched conditions from inappropriately lowering the error rate, echolocation clicks associated with a single sighting are never split across the training and test data. Sightings are randomly permuted before assignment to folds in the experiment. This allows different combinations of the training and test data to be used while keeping data from each sighting entirely in the training or test set. The system achieves a mean error rate of 22% across 100 randomized three-fold cross-validation experiments. Four of the six species had mean error rates lower than the overall mean, with the presumed Cuvier's beaked whale clicks showing the best performance (<2% error rate). Long-beaked common and bottlenose dolphins proved the most difficult to classify, with mean error rates of 53% and 68%, respectively.

Effects of random tooth profile errors on the dynamic behaviors of planetary gears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xun, Chao; Long, Xinhua; Hua, Hongxing

2018-02-01

In this paper, a nonlinear random model is built to describe the dynamics of planetary gear trains (PGTs), in which the time-varying mesh stiffness, tooth profile modification (TPM), tooth contact loss, and random tooth profile error are considered. A stochastic method based on the method of multiple scales (MMS) is extended to analyze the statistical property of the dynamic performance of PGTs. By the proposed multiple-scales based stochastic method, the distributions of the dynamic transmission errors (DTEs) are investigated, and the lower and upper bounds are determined based on the 3σ principle. Monte Carlo method is employed to verify the proposed method. Results indicate that the proposed method can be used to determine the distribution of the DTE of PGTs high efficiently and allow a link between the manufacturing precision and the dynamical response. In addition, the effects of tooth profile modification on the distributions of vibration amplitudes and the probability of tooth contact loss with different manufacturing tooth profile errors are studied. The results show that the manufacturing precision affects the distribution of dynamic transmission errors dramatically and appropriate TPMs are helpful to decrease the nominal value and the deviation of the vibration amplitudes.

Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles

PubMed Central

Levine, Sheen S.; Apfelbaum, Evan P.; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L.; Zajac, Edward J.; Stark, David

2014-01-01

Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others’ decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

Clinical image quality evaluation for panoramic radiography in Korean dental clinics

PubMed Central

Choi, Bo-Ram; Choi, Da-Hye; Huh, Kyung-Hoe; Yi, Won-Jin; Heo, Min-Suk; Choi, Soon-Chul; Bae, Kwang-Hak

2012-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the level of clinical image quality of panoramic radiographs and to analyze the parameters that influence the overall image quality. Materials and Methods Korean dental clinics were asked to provide three randomly selected panoramic radiographs. An oral and maxillofacial radiology specialist evaluated those images using our self-developed Clinical Image Quality Evaluation Chart. Three evaluators classified the overall image quality of the panoramic radiographs and evaluated the causes of imaging errors. Results A total of 297 panoramic radiographs were collected from 99 dental hospitals and clinics. The mean of the scores according to the Clinical Image Quality Evaluation Chart was 79.9. In the classification of the overall image quality, 17 images were deemed 'optimal for obtaining diagnostic information,' 153 were 'adequate for diagnosis,' 109 were 'poor but diagnosable,' and nine were 'unrecognizable and too poor for diagnosis'. The results of the analysis of the causes of the errors in all the images are as follows: 139 errors in the positioning, 135 in the processing, 50 from the radiographic unit, and 13 due to anatomic abnormality. Conclusion Panoramic radiographs taken at local dental clinics generally have a normal or higher-level image quality. Principal factors affecting image quality were positioning of the patient and image density, sharpness, and contrast. Therefore, when images are taken, the patient position should be adjusted with great care. Also, standardizing objective criteria of image density, sharpness, and contrast is required to evaluate image quality effectively. PMID:23071969

Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles.

PubMed

Levine, Sheen S; Apfelbaum, Evan P; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L; Zajac, Edward J; Stark, David

2014-12-30

Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others' decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity.

A multi-site analysis of random error in tower-based measurements of carbon and energy fluxes

Treesearch

Andrew D. Richardson; David Y. Hollinger; George G. Burba; Kenneth J. Davis; Lawrence B. Flanagan; Gabriel G. Katul; J. William Munger; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Paul C. Stoy; Andrew E. Suyker; Shashi B. Verma; Steven C. Wofsy; Steven C. Wofsy

2006-01-01

Measured surface-atmosphere fluxes of energy (sensible heat, H, and latent heat, LE) and CO2 (FCO2) represent the ``true?? flux plus or minus potential random and systematic measurement errors. Here, we use data from seven sites in the AmeriFlux network, including five forested sites (two of which include ``tall tower?? instrumentation), one grassland site, and one...

Statistical error model for a solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bantell, M. H.

1973-01-01

The solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem statistical error model was developed as a tool for investigating the effects of thrust subsystem parameter uncertainties on navigation accuracy. The model is currently being used to evaluate the impact of electric engine parameter uncertainties on navigation system performance for a baseline mission to Encke's Comet in the 1980s. The data given represent the next generation in statistical error modeling for low-thrust applications. Principal improvements include the representation of thrust uncertainties and random process modeling in terms of random parametric variations in the thrust vector process for a multi-engine configuration.

A prospective three-step intervention study to prevent medication errors in drug handling in paediatric care.

PubMed

Niemann, Dorothee; Bertsche, Astrid; Meyrath, David; Koepf, Ellen D; Traiser, Carolin; Seebald, Katja; Schmitt, Claus P; Hoffmann, Georg F; Haefeli, Walter E; Bertsche, Thilo

2015-01-01

To prevent medication errors in drug handling in a paediatric ward. One in five preventable adverse drug events in hospitalised children is caused by medication errors. Errors in drug prescription have been studied frequently, but data regarding drug handling, including drug preparation and administration, are scarce. A three-step intervention study including monitoring procedure was used to detect and prevent medication errors in drug handling. After approval by the ethics committee, pharmacists monitored drug handling by nurses on an 18-bed paediatric ward in a university hospital prior to and following each intervention step. They also conducted a questionnaire survey aimed at identifying knowledge deficits. Each intervention step targeted different causes of errors. The handout mainly addressed knowledge deficits, the training course addressed errors caused by rule violations and slips, and the reference book addressed knowledge-, memory- and rule-based errors. The number of patients who were subjected to at least one medication error in drug handling decreased from 38/43 (88%) to 25/51 (49%) following the third intervention, and the overall frequency of errors decreased from 527 errors in 581 processes (91%) to 116/441 (26%). The issue of the handout reduced medication errors caused by knowledge deficits regarding, for instance, the correct 'volume of solvent for IV drugs' from 49-25%. Paediatric drug handling is prone to errors. A three-step intervention effectively decreased the high frequency of medication errors by addressing the diversity of their causes. Worldwide, nurses are in charge of drug handling, which constitutes an error-prone but often-neglected step in drug therapy. Detection and prevention of errors in daily routine is necessary for a safe and effective drug therapy. Our three-step intervention reduced errors and is suitable to be tested in other wards and settings. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Far field beam pattern of one MW combined beam of laser diode array amplifiers for space power transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Jin H.; Lee, Ja H.

1989-01-01

The far-field beam pattern and the power-collection efficiency are calculated for a multistage laser-diode-array amplifier consisting of about 200,000 5-W laser diode arrays with random distributions of phase and orientation errors and random diode failures. From the numerical calculation it is found that the far-field beam pattern is little affected by random failures of up to 20 percent of the laser diodes with reference of 80 percent receiving efficiency in the center spot. The random differences in phases among laser diodes due to probable manufacturing errors is allowed to about 0.2 times the wavelength. The maximum allowable orientation error is about 20 percent of the diffraction angle of a single laser diode aperture (about 1 cm). The preliminary results indicate that the amplifier could be used for space beam-power transmission with an efficiency of about 80 percent for a moderate-size (3-m-diameter) receiver placed at a distance of less than 50,000 km.

An Analysis of Computational Errors in the Use of Division Algorithms by Fourth-Grade Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stefanich, Greg P.; Rokusek, Teri

1992-01-01

Presents a study that analyzed errors made by randomly chosen fourth grade students (25 of 57) while using the division algorithm and investigated the effect of remediation on identified systematic errors. Results affirm that error pattern diagnosis and directed remediation lead to new learning and long-term retention. (MDH)

False Positives in Multiple Regression: Unanticipated Consequences of Measurement Error in the Predictor Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shear, Benjamin R.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

2013-01-01

Type I error rates in multiple regression, and hence the chance for false positive research findings, can be drastically inflated when multiple regression models are used to analyze data that contain random measurement error. This article shows the potential for inflated Type I error rates in commonly encountered scenarios and provides new…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

Physical layer one-time-pad data encryption through synchronized semiconductor laser networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argyris, Apostolos; Pikasis, Evangelos; Syvridis, Dimitris

2016-02-01

Semiconductor lasers (SL) have been proven to be a key device in the generation of ultrafast true random bit streams. Their potential to emit chaotic signals under conditions with desirable statistics, establish them as a low cost solution to cover various needs, from large volume key generation to real-time encrypted communications. Usually, only undemanding post-processing is needed to convert the acquired analog timeseries to digital sequences that pass all established tests of randomness. A novel architecture that can generate and exploit these true random sequences is through a fiber network in which the nodes are semiconductor lasers that are coupled and synchronized to central hub laser. In this work we show experimentally that laser nodes in such a star network topology can synchronize with each other through complex broadband signals that are the seed to true random bit sequences (TRBS) generated at several Gb/s. The potential for each node to access real-time generated and synchronized with the rest of the nodes random bit streams, through the fiber optic network, allows to implement an one-time-pad encryption protocol that mixes the synchronized true random bit sequence with real data at Gb/s rates. Forward-error correction methods are used to reduce the errors in the TRBS and the final error rate at the data decoding level. An appropriate selection in the sampling methodology and properties, as well as in the physical properties of the chaotic seed signal through which network locks in synchronization, allows an error free performance.

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, V.

1993-01-01

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Adjustment of Measurements with Multiplicative Errors: Error Analysis, Estimates of the Variance of Unit Weight, and Effect on Volume Estimation from LiDAR-Type Digital Elevation Models

PubMed Central

Shi, Yun; Xu, Peiliang; Peng, Junhuan; Shi, Chuang; Liu, Jingnan

2014-01-01

Modern observation technology has verified that measurement errors can be proportional to the true values of measurements such as GPS, VLBI baselines and LiDAR. Observational models of this type are called multiplicative error models. This paper is to extend the work of Xu and Shimada published in 2000 on multiplicative error models to analytical error analysis of quantities of practical interest and estimates of the variance of unit weight. We analytically derive the variance-covariance matrices of the three least squares (LS) adjustments, the adjusted measurements and the corrections of measurements in multiplicative error models. For quality evaluation, we construct five estimators for the variance of unit weight in association of the three LS adjustment methods. Although LiDAR measurements are contaminated with multiplicative random errors, LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEM) have been constructed as if they were of additive random errors. We will simulate a model landslide, which is assumed to be surveyed with LiDAR, and investigate the effect of LiDAR-type multiplicative error measurements on DEM construction and its effect on the estimate of landslide mass volume from the constructed DEM. PMID:24434880

Liquid Medication Dosing Errors by Hispanic Parents: Role of Health Literacy and English Proficiency

PubMed Central

Harris, Leslie M.; Dreyer, Benard; Mendelsohn, Alan; Bailey, Stacy C.; Sanders, Lee M.; Wolf, Michael S.; Parker, Ruth M.; Patel, Deesha A.; Kim, Kwang Youn A.; Jimenez, Jessica J.; Jacobson, Kara; Smith, Michelle; Yin, H. Shonna

2016-01-01

Objective Hispanic parents in the US are disproportionately affected by low health literacy and limited English proficiency (LEP). We examined associations between health literacy, LEP, and liquid medication dosing errors in Hispanic parents. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of data from a multisite randomized controlled experiment to identify best practices for the labeling/dosing of pediatric liquid medications (SAFE Rx for Kids study); 3 urban pediatric clinics. Analyses were limited to Hispanic parents of children <8 years, with health literacy and LEP data (n=1126). Parents were randomized to 5 groups that varied by pairing of units of measurement on the label/dosing tool. Each parent measured 9 doses [3 amounts (2.5,5,7.5 mL) using 3 tools (2 syringes (0.2,0.5 mL increment), 1 cup)] in random order. Dependent variable: Dosing error=>20% dose deviation. Predictor variables: health literacy (Newest Vital Sign) [limited=0–3; adequate=4–6], LEP (speaks English less than “very well”). Results 83.1% made dosing errors (mean(SD) errors/parent=2.2(1.9)). Parents with limited health literacy and LEP had the greatest odds of making a dosing error compared to parents with adequate health literacy who were English proficient (% trials with errors/parent=28.8 vs. 12.9%; AOR=2.2[1.7–2.8]). Parents with limited health literacy who were English proficient were also more likely to make errors (% trials with errors/parent=18.8%; AOR=1.4[1.1–1.9]). Conclusion Dosing errors are common among Hispanic parents; those with both LEP and limited health literacy are at particular risk. Further study is needed to examine how the redesign of medication labels and dosing tools could reduce literacy and language-associated disparities in dosing errors. PMID:28477800

Combinatorial neural codes from a mathematical coding theory perspective.

PubMed

Curto, Carina; Itskov, Vladimir; Morrison, Katherine; Roth, Zachary; Walker, Judy L

2013-07-01

Shannon's seminal 1948 work gave rise to two distinct areas of research: information theory and mathematical coding theory. While information theory has had a strong influence on theoretical neuroscience, ideas from mathematical coding theory have received considerably less attention. Here we take a new look at combinatorial neural codes from a mathematical coding theory perspective, examining the error correction capabilities of familiar receptive field codes (RF codes). We find, perhaps surprisingly, that the high levels of redundancy present in these codes do not support accurate error correction, although the error-correcting performance of receptive field codes catches up to that of random comparison codes when a small tolerance to error is introduced. However, receptive field codes are good at reflecting distances between represented stimuli, while the random comparison codes are not. We suggest that a compromise in error-correcting capability may be a necessary price to pay for a neural code whose structure serves not only error correction, but must also reflect relationships between stimuli.

Effects of learning climate and registered nurse staffing on medication errors.

PubMed

Chang, Yunkyung; Mark, Barbara

2011-01-01

Despite increasing recognition of the significance of learning from errors, little is known about how learning climate contributes to error reduction. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether learning climate moderates the relationship between error-producing conditions and medication errors. A cross-sectional descriptive study was done using data from 279 nursing units in 146 randomly selected hospitals in the United States. Error-producing conditions included work environment factors (work dynamics and nurse mix), team factors (communication with physicians and nurses' expertise), personal factors (nurses' education and experience), patient factors (age, health status, and previous hospitalization), and medication-related support services. Poisson models with random effects were used with the nursing unit as the unit of analysis. A significant negative relationship was found between learning climate and medication errors. It also moderated the relationship between nurse mix and medication errors: When learning climate was negative, having more registered nurses was associated with fewer medication errors. However, no relationship was found between nurse mix and medication errors at either positive or average levels of learning climate. Learning climate did not moderate the relationship between work dynamics and medication errors. The way nurse mix affects medication errors depends on the level of learning climate. Nursing units with fewer registered nurses and frequent medication errors should examine their learning climate. Future research should be focused on the role of learning climate as related to the relationships between nurse mix and medication errors.

Random synaptic feedback weights support error backpropagation for deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillicrap, Timothy P.; Cownden, Daniel; Tweed, Douglas B.; Akerman, Colin J.

2016-11-01

The brain processes information through multiple layers of neurons. This deep architecture is representationally powerful, but complicates learning because it is difficult to identify the responsible neurons when a mistake is made. In machine learning, the backpropagation algorithm assigns blame by multiplying error signals with all the synaptic weights on each neuron's axon and further downstream. However, this involves a precise, symmetric backward connectivity pattern, which is thought to be impossible in the brain. Here we demonstrate that this strong architectural constraint is not required for effective error propagation. We present a surprisingly simple mechanism that assigns blame by multiplying errors by even random synaptic weights. This mechanism can transmit teaching signals across multiple layers of neurons and performs as effectively as backpropagation on a variety of tasks. Our results help reopen questions about how the brain could use error signals and dispel long-held assumptions about algorithmic constraints on learning.

Random synaptic feedback weights support error backpropagation for deep learning

PubMed Central

Lillicrap, Timothy P.; Cownden, Daniel; Tweed, Douglas B.; Akerman, Colin J.

2016-01-01

The brain processes information through multiple layers of neurons. This deep architecture is representationally powerful, but complicates learning because it is difficult to identify the responsible neurons when a mistake is made. In machine learning, the backpropagation algorithm assigns blame by multiplying error signals with all the synaptic weights on each neuron's axon and further downstream. However, this involves a precise, symmetric backward connectivity pattern, which is thought to be impossible in the brain. Here we demonstrate that this strong architectural constraint is not required for effective error propagation. We present a surprisingly simple mechanism that assigns blame by multiplying errors by even random synaptic weights. This mechanism can transmit teaching signals across multiple layers of neurons and performs as effectively as backpropagation on a variety of tasks. Our results help reopen questions about how the brain could use error signals and dispel long-held assumptions about algorithmic constraints on learning. PMID:27824044

Pricing Employee Stock Options (ESOs) with Random Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chendra, E.; Chin, L.; Sukmana, A.

2018-04-01

Employee Stock Options (ESOs) are stock options granted by companies to their employees. Unlike standard options that can be traded by typical institutional or individual investors, employees cannot sell or transfer their ESOs to other investors. The sale restrictions may induce the ESO’s holder to exercise them earlier. In much cited paper, Hull and White propose a binomial lattice in valuing ESOs which assumes that employees will exercise voluntarily their ESOs if the stock price reaches a horizontal psychological barrier. Due to nonlinearity errors, the numerical pricing results oscillate significantly so they may lead to large pricing errors. In this paper, we use the random lattice method to price the Hull-White ESOs model. This method can reduce the nonlinearity error by aligning a layer of nodes of the random lattice with a psychological barrier.

The influence of random element displacement on DOA estimates obtained with (Khatri-Rao-)root-MUSIC.

PubMed

Inghelbrecht, Veronique; Verhaevert, Jo; van Hecke, Tanja; Rogier, Hendrik

2014-11-11

Although a wide range of direction of arrival (DOA) estimation algorithms has been described for a diverse range of array configurations, no specific stochastic analysis framework has been established to assess the probability density function of the error on DOA estimates due to random errors in the array geometry. Therefore, we propose a stochastic collocation method that relies on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion to connect the statistical distribution of random position errors to the resulting distribution of the DOA estimates. We apply this technique to the conventional root-MUSIC and the Khatri-Rao-root-MUSIC methods. According to Monte-Carlo simulations, this novel approach yields a speedup by a factor of more than 100 in terms of CPU-time for a one-dimensional case and by a factor of 56 for a two-dimensional case.

Simulation analysis of space remote sensing image quality degradation induced by satellite platform vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Feng; Zhang, Xiaofang; Huang, Yu; Hao, Weiwei; Guo, Baiwei

2012-11-01

Satellite platform vibration causes the image quality to be degraded, it is necessary to study its influence on image quality. The forms of Satellite platform vibration consist of linear vibration, sinusoidal vibration and random vibration. Based on Matlab & Zemax, the simulation system has been developed for simulating impact caused by satellite platform vibration on image quality. Dynamic Data Exchange is used for the communication between Matlab and Zemax. The data of sinusoidal vibration are produced by sinusoidal curve with specific amplitude and frequency. The data of random vibration are obtained by combining sinusoidal signals with 10Hz, 100Hz and 200Hz's frequency, 100, 12, 1.9's amplitude and white noise with zero mean value. Satellite platform vibration data which produced by Matlab are added to the optical system, and its point spread function can be obtained by Zemax. Blurred image can be gained by making the convolution of PSF and the original image. The definition of the original image and the blurred image are evaluated by using average gradient values of image gray. The impact caused by the sine and random vibration of six DOFs on the image quality are respectively simulated. The simulation result reveal that the decenter of X-, Y-, Z- direction and the tilt of Z-direction have a little effect on image quality, while the tilt of X-, Y- direction make image quality seriously degraded. Thus, it can be concluded that correcting the error of satellite platform vibration by FSM is a viable and effective way.

A theory of human error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcruer, D. T.; Clement, W. F.; Allen, R. W.

1980-01-01

Human error, a significant contributing factor in a very high proportion of civil transport, general aviation, and rotorcraft accidents is investigated. Correction of the sources of human error requires that one attempt to reconstruct underlying and contributing causes of error from the circumstantial causes cited in official investigative reports. A validated analytical theory of the input-output behavior of human operators involving manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation operations is presented. This theory of behavior, both appropriate and inappropriate, provides an insightful basis for investigating, classifying, and quantifying the needed cause-effect relationships governing propagation of human error.

High Prevalence of Refractive Errors in 7 Year Old Children in Iran.

PubMed

Hashemi, Hassan; Yekta, Abbasali; Jafarzadehpur, Ebrahim; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Etemad, Koorosh; Asharlous, Amir; Nabovati, Payam; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2016-02-01

The latest WHO report indicates that refractive errors are the leading cause of visual impairment throughout the world. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of myopia, hyperopia, and astigmatism in 7 yr old children in Iran. In a cross-sectional study in 2013 with multistage cluster sampling, first graders were randomly selected from 8 cities in Iran. All children were tested by an optometrist for uncorrected and corrected vision, and non-cycloplegic and cycloplegic refraction. Refractive errors in this study were determined based on spherical equivalent (SE) cyloplegic refraction. From 4614 selected children, 89.0% participated in the study, and 4072 were eligible. The prevalence rates of myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism were 3.04% (95% CI: 2.30-3.78), 6.20% (95% CI: 5.27-7.14), and 17.43% (95% CI: 15.39-19.46), respectively. Prevalence of myopia (P=0.925) and astigmatism (P=0.056) were not statistically significantly different between the two genders, but the odds of hyperopia were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01-2.05) times higher in girls (P=0.011). The prevalence of with-the-rule astigmatism was 12.59%, against-the-rule was 2.07%, and oblique 2.65%. Overall, 22.8% (95% CI: 19.7-24.9) of the schoolchildren in this study had at least one type of refractive error. One out of every 5 schoolchildren had some refractive error. Conducting multicenter studies throughout the Middle East can be very helpful in understanding the current distribution patterns and etiology of refractive errors compared to the previous decade.

Uncorrected refractive errors, presbyopia and spectacle coverage: results from a rapid assessment of refractive error survey.

PubMed

Marmamula, Srinivas; Keeffe, Jill E; Rao, Gullapalli N

2009-01-01

To investigate the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors, presbyopia and spectacle coverage in subjects aged 15-50 years using rapid assessment methodology in the Mahabubnagar district of Andhra Pradesh, India. A population-based cross sectional study was conducted using cluster random sampling to enumerate 3,300 subjects from 55 clusters. Unaided, aided and pinhole visual acuity was assessed using a LogMAR chart at a distance of 4 meters. Near vision was assessed using N notation chart. Uncorrected refractive error was defined as presenting visual acuity worse than 6/12 but improving to at least 6/12 or better on using a pinhole. Presbyopia is defined as binocular near vision worse than N8 in subjects aged more than 35 years with binocular distance visual acuity of 6/12 or better. Of the 3,300 subjects enumerated from 55 clusters, 3,203 (97%) subjects were available for examination. Of these, 1,496 (46.7%) were females and 930 (29%) were > or = 40 years. Age and gender adjusted prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors causing visual impairment in the better eye was 2.7% (95% CI, 2.1-3.2%). Presbyopia was present in 690 (63.7%, 95% CI, 60.8-66.6%) subjects aged over 35 years. Spectacle coverage for refractive error was 29% and for presbyopia it was 19%. There is a large unmet need for refractive correction in this area in India. Rapid assessment methods are an effective means of assessing the need for services and the impact of models of care.

Optimization and Experimentation of Dual-Mass MEMS Gyroscope Quadrature Error Correction Methods

PubMed Central

Cao, Huiliang; Li, Hongsheng; Kou, Zhiwei; Shi, Yunbo; Tang, Jun; Ma, Zongmin; Shen, Chong; Liu, Jun

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on an optimal quadrature error correction method for the dual-mass MEMS gyroscope, in order to reduce the long term bias drift. It is known that the coupling stiffness and demodulation error are important elements causing bias drift. The coupling stiffness in dual-mass structures is analyzed. The experiment proves that the left and right masses’ quadrature errors are different, and the quadrature correction system should be arranged independently. The process leading to quadrature error is proposed, and the Charge Injecting Correction (CIC), Quadrature Force Correction (QFC) and Coupling Stiffness Correction (CSC) methods are introduced. The correction objects of these three methods are the quadrature error signal, force and the coupling stiffness, respectively. The three methods are investigated through control theory analysis, model simulation and circuit experiments, and the results support the theoretical analysis. The bias stability results based on CIC, QFC and CSC are 48 °/h, 9.9 °/h and 3.7 °/h, respectively, and this value is 38 °/h before quadrature error correction. The CSC method is proved to be the better method for quadrature correction, and it improves the Angle Random Walking (ARW) value, increasing it from 0.66 °/√h to 0.21 °/√h. The CSC system general test results show that it works well across the full temperature range, and the bias stabilities of the six groups’ output data are 3.8 °/h, 3.6 °/h, 3.4 °/h, 3.1 °/h, 3.0 °/h and 4.2 °/h, respectively, which proves the system has excellent repeatability. PMID:26751455

Optimization and Experimentation of Dual-Mass MEMS Gyroscope Quadrature Error Correction Methods.

PubMed

Cao, Huiliang; Li, Hongsheng; Kou, Zhiwei; Shi, Yunbo; Tang, Jun; Ma, Zongmin; Shen, Chong; Liu, Jun

2016-01-07

This paper focuses on an optimal quadrature error correction method for the dual-mass MEMS gyroscope, in order to reduce the long term bias drift. It is known that the coupling stiffness and demodulation error are important elements causing bias drift. The coupling stiffness in dual-mass structures is analyzed. The experiment proves that the left and right masses' quadrature errors are different, and the quadrature correction system should be arranged independently. The process leading to quadrature error is proposed, and the Charge Injecting Correction (CIC), Quadrature Force Correction (QFC) and Coupling Stiffness Correction (CSC) methods are introduced. The correction objects of these three methods are the quadrature error signal, force and the coupling stiffness, respectively. The three methods are investigated through control theory analysis, model simulation and circuit experiments, and the results support the theoretical analysis. The bias stability results based on CIC, QFC and CSC are 48 °/h, 9.9 °/h and 3.7 °/h, respectively, and this value is 38 °/h before quadrature error correction. The CSC method is proved to be the better method for quadrature correction, and it improves the Angle Random Walking (ARW) value, increasing it from 0.66 °/√h to 0.21 °/√h. The CSC system general test results show that it works well across the full temperature range, and the bias stabilities of the six groups' output data are 3.8 °/h, 3.6 °/h, 3.4 °/h, 3.1 °/h, 3.0 °/h and 4.2 °/h, respectively, which proves the system has excellent repeatability.

Electronic laboratory system reduces errors in National Tuberculosis Program: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Blaya, J A; Shin, S S; Yale, G; Suarez, C; Asencios, L; Contreras, C; Rodriguez, P; Kim, J; Cegielski, P; Fraser, H S F

2010-08-01

To evaluate the impact of the e-Chasqui laboratory information system in reducing reporting errors compared to the current paper system. Cluster randomized controlled trial in 76 health centers (HCs) between 2004 and 2008. Baseline data were collected every 4 months for 12 months. HCs were then randomly assigned to intervention (e-Chasqui) or control (paper). Further data were collected for the same months the following year. Comparisons were made between intervention and control HCs, and before and after the intervention. Intervention HCs had respectively 82% and 87% fewer errors in reporting results for drug susceptibility tests (2.1% vs. 11.9%, P = 0.001, OR 0.17, 95%CI 0.09-0.31) and cultures (2.0% vs. 15.1%, P < 0.001, OR 0.13, 95%CI 0.07-0.24), than control HCs. Preventing missing results through online viewing accounted for at least 72% of all errors. e-Chasqui users sent on average three electronic error reports per week to the laboratories. e-Chasqui reduced the number of missing laboratory results at point-of-care health centers. Clinical users confirmed viewing electronic results not available on paper. Reporting errors to the laboratory using e-Chasqui promoted continuous quality improvement. The e-Chasqui laboratory information system is an important part of laboratory infrastructure improvements to support multidrug-resistant tuberculosis care in Peru.

Measurement of breast-tissue x-ray attenuation by spectral mammography: solid lesions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredenberg, Erik; Kilburn-Toppin, Fleur; Willsher, Paula; Moa, Elin; Danielsson, Mats; Dance, David R.; Young, Kenneth C.; Wallis, Matthew G.

2016-04-01

Knowledge of x-ray attenuation is essential for developing and evaluating x-ray imaging technologies. For instance, techniques to distinguish between cysts and solid tumours at mammography screening would be highly desirable to reduce recalls, but the development requires knowledge of the x-ray attenuation for cysts and tumours. We have previously measured the attenuation of cyst fluid using photon-counting spectral mammography. Data on x-ray attenuation for solid breast lesions are available in the literature, but cover a relatively wide range, likely caused by natural spread between samples, random measurement errors, and different experimental conditions. In this study, we have adapted a previously developed spectral method to measure the linear attenuation of solid breast lesions. A total of 56 malignant and 5 benign lesions were included in the study. The samples were placed in a holder that allowed for thickness measurement. Spectral (energy-resolved) images of the samples were acquired and the image signal was mapped to equivalent thicknesses of two known reference materials, which can be used to derive the x-ray attenuation as a function of energy. The spread in equivalent material thicknesses was relatively large between samples, which is likely to be caused mainly by natural variation and only to a minor extent by random measurement errors and sample inhomogeneity. No significant difference in attenuation was found between benign and malignant solid lesions. The separation between cyst-fluid and tumour attenuation was, however, significant, which suggests it may be possible to distinguish cystic from solid breast lesions, and the results lay the groundwork for a clinical trial. In addition, the study adds a relatively large sample set to the published data and may contribute to a reduction in the overall uncertainty in the literature.

Theoretical and experimental errors for in situ measurements of plant water potential.

PubMed

Shackel, K A

1984-07-01

Errors in psychrometrically determined values of leaf water potential caused by tissue resistance to water vapor exchange and by lack of thermal equilibrium were evaluated using commercial in situ psychrometers (Wescor Inc., Logan, UT) on leaves of Tradescantia virginiana (L.). Theoretical errors in the dewpoint method of operation for these sensors were demonstrated. After correction for these errors, in situ measurements of leaf water potential indicated substantial errors caused by tissue resistance to water vapor exchange (4 to 6% reduction in apparent water potential per second of cooling time used) resulting from humidity depletions in the psychrometer chamber during the Peltier condensation process. These errors were avoided by use of a modified procedure for dewpoint measurement. Large changes in apparent water potential were caused by leaf and psychrometer exposure to moderate levels of irradiance. These changes were correlated with relatively small shifts in psychrometer zero offsets (-0.6 to -1.0 megapascals per microvolt), indicating substantial errors caused by nonisothermal conditions between the leaf and the psychrometer. Explicit correction for these errors is not possible with the current psychrometer design.

Theoretical and Experimental Errors for In Situ Measurements of Plant Water Potential 1

PubMed Central

Shackel, Kenneth A.

1984-01-01

Errors in psychrometrically determined values of leaf water potential caused by tissue resistance to water vapor exchange and by lack of thermal equilibrium were evaluated using commercial in situ psychrometers (Wescor Inc., Logan, UT) on leaves of Tradescantia virginiana (L.). Theoretical errors in the dewpoint method of operation for these sensors were demonstrated. After correction for these errors, in situ measurements of leaf water potential indicated substantial errors caused by tissue resistance to water vapor exchange (4 to 6% reduction in apparent water potential per second of cooling time used) resulting from humidity depletions in the psychrometer chamber during the Peltier condensation process. These errors were avoided by use of a modified procedure for dewpoint measurement. Large changes in apparent water potential were caused by leaf and psychrometer exposure to moderate levels of irradiance. These changes were correlated with relatively small shifts in psychrometer zero offsets (−0.6 to −1.0 megapascals per microvolt), indicating substantial errors caused by nonisothermal conditions between the leaf and the psychrometer. Explicit correction for these errors is not possible with the current psychrometer design. PMID:16663701

Influence of Layup Sequence on the Surface Accuracy of Carbon Fiber Composite Space Mirrors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhiyong; Liu, Qingnian; Zhang, Boming; Xu, Liang; Tang, Zhanwen; Xie, Yongjie

2018-04-01

Layup sequence is directly related to stiffness and deformation resistance of the composite space mirror, and error caused by layup sequence can affect the surface precision of composite mirrors evidently. Variation of layup sequence with the same total thickness of composite space mirror changes surface form of the composite mirror, which is the focus of our study. In our research, the influence of varied quasi-isotropic stacking sequences and random angular deviation on the surface accuracy of composite space mirrors was investigated through finite element analyses (FEA). We established a simulation model for the studied concave mirror with 500 mm diameter, essential factors of layup sequences and random angular deviations on different plies were discussed. Five guiding findings were described in this study. Increasing total plies, optimizing stacking sequence and keeping consistency of ply alignment in ply placement are effective to improve surface accuracy of composite mirror.

Medical errors; causes, consequences, emotional response and resulting behavioral change

PubMed Central

Bari, Attia; Khan, Rehan Ahmed; Rathore, Ahsan Waheed

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine the causes of medical errors, the emotional and behavioral response of pediatric medicine residents to their medical errors and to determine their behavior change affecting their future training. Methods: One hundred thirty postgraduate residents were included in the study. Residents were asked to complete questionnaire about their errors and responses to their errors in three domains: emotional response, learning behavior and disclosure of the error. The names of the participants were kept confidential. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: A total of 130 residents were included. Majority 128(98.5%) of these described some form of error. Serious errors that occurred were 24(19%), 63(48%) minor, 24(19%) near misses,2(2%) never encountered an error and 17(12%) did not mention type of error but mentioned causes and consequences. Only 73(57%) residents disclosed medical errors to their senior physician but disclosure to patient’s family was negligible 15(11%). Fatigue due to long duty hours 85(65%), inadequate experience 66(52%), inadequate supervision 58(48%) and complex case 58(45%) were common causes of medical errors. Negative emotions were common and were significantly associated with lack of knowledge (p=0.001), missing warning signs (p=<0.001), not seeking advice (p=0.003) and procedural complications (p=0.001). Medical errors had significant impact on resident’s behavior; 119(93%) residents became more careful, increased advice seeking from seniors 109(86%) and 109(86%) started paying more attention to details. Intrinsic causes of errors were significantly associated with increased information seeking behavior and vigilance (p=0.003) and (p=0.01) respectively. Conclusion: Medical errors committed by residents have inadequate disclosure to senior physicians and result in negative emotions but there was positive change in their behavior, which resulted in improvement in their future training and patient care. PMID:27375682

Effect of MLC leaf position, collimator rotation angle, and gantry rotation angle errors on intensity-modulated radiotherapy plans for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bai, Sen; Li, Guangjun; Wang, Maojie

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of multileaf collimator (MLC) leaf position, collimator rotation angle, and accelerator gantry rotation angle errors on intensity-modulated radiotherapy plans for nasopharyngeal carcinoma. To compare dosimetric differences between the simulating plans and the clinical plans with evaluation parameters, 6 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were selected for simulation of systematic and random MLC leaf position errors, collimator rotation angle errors, and accelerator gantry rotation angle errors. There was a high sensitivity to dose distribution for systematic MLC leaf position errors in response to field size. When the systematic MLC position errors weremore » 0.5, 1, and 2 mm, respectively, the maximum values of the mean dose deviation, observed in parotid glands, were 4.63%, 8.69%, and 18.32%, respectively. The dosimetric effect was comparatively small for systematic MLC shift errors. For random MLC errors up to 2 mm and collimator and gantry rotation angle errors up to 0.5°, the dosimetric effect was negligible. We suggest that quality control be regularly conducted for MLC leaves, so as to ensure that systematic MLC leaf position errors are within 0.5 mm. Because the dosimetric effect of 0.5° collimator and gantry rotation angle errors is negligible, it can be concluded that setting a proper threshold for allowed errors of collimator and gantry rotation angle may increase treatment efficacy and reduce treatment time.« less

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

Evaluation of Bayesian Sequential Proportion Estimation Using Analyst Labels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lennington, R. K.; Abotteen, K. M. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A total of ten Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment Phase 3 blind sites and analyst-interpreter labels were used in a study to compare proportional estimates obtained by the Bayes sequential procedure with estimates obtained from simple random sampling and from Procedure 1. The analyst error rate using the Bayes technique was shown to be no greater than that for the simple random sampling. Also, the segment proportion estimates produced using this technique had smaller bias and mean squared errors than the estimates produced using either simple random sampling or Procedure 1.

Robust Image Regression Based on the Extended Matrix Variate Power Exponential Distribution of Dependent Noise.

PubMed

Luo, Lei; Yang, Jian; Qian, Jianjun; Tai, Ying; Lu, Gui-Fu

2017-09-01

Dealing with partial occlusion or illumination is one of the most challenging problems in image representation and classification. In this problem, the characterization of the representation error plays a crucial role. In most current approaches, the error matrix needs to be stretched into a vector and each element is assumed to be independently corrupted. This ignores the dependence between the elements of error. In this paper, it is assumed that the error image caused by partial occlusion or illumination changes is a random matrix variate and follows the extended matrix variate power exponential distribution. This has the heavy tailed regions and can be used to describe a matrix pattern of l×m dimensional observations that are not independent. This paper reveals the essence of the proposed distribution: it actually alleviates the correlations between pixels in an error matrix E and makes E approximately Gaussian. On the basis of this distribution, we derive a Schatten p -norm-based matrix regression model with L q regularization. Alternating direction method of multipliers is applied to solve this model. To get a closed-form solution in each step of the algorithm, two singular value function thresholding operators are introduced. In addition, the extended Schatten p -norm is utilized to characterize the distance between the test samples and classes in the design of the classifier. Extensive experimental results for image reconstruction and classification with structural noise demonstrate that the proposed algorithm works much more robustly than some existing regression-based methods.

Rationale and design of a randomized trial to evaluate an evidence-based prescription drug label on actual medication use.

PubMed

Shrank, William H; Parker, Ruth; Davis, Terry; Pandit, Anjali U; Knox, Joann P; Moraras, Pear; Rademaker, Alfred; Wolf, Michael S

2010-11-01

Medication errors are an important public health concern, and poor understanding of medication labels are a root cause. Research shows that labels are variable, of poor quality, and not patient-centered. No real-world trials have evaluated whether improved medication labels can affect appropriate medication use, adherence or health outcomes. We developed an evidence-based prescription label that addresses both content and format. The enhanced label includes a universal medication schedule (UMS) that standardizes the directions for use incorporating 1) standard time periods for administration (morning, noon, evening, and bedtime), 2) numeric vs. alpha characters, 3) 'carriage returns' to separate daily dose and 4) a graphic aid to visually depict dose and frequency. We will evaluate the effect of providing this label to randomly sampled patients who receive their care from free clinics, mobile vans and federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) in Northern Virginia. We will recruit patients with diabetes or hypertension; these patients will be randomly assigned to receive all of their medications with improved labels or to receive prescriptions with standard labels. The primary outcome will be the patient's ability to correctly demonstrate dosing instructions. Other outcomes include adherence, error rates and health outcomes. To our knowledge, this trial is the first to evaluate the effect of prescription label improvement on understanding, medication use and outcomes in a clinical setting. If successful, these findings could be implemented broadly to promote safe and appropriate medication use and to support evidence-based standards in the development of labels. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Center of mass perception and inertial frames of reference.

PubMed

Bingham, G P; Muchisky, M M

1993-11-01

Center of mass perception was investigated by varying the shape, size, and orientation of planar objects. Shape was manipulated to investigate symmetries as information. The number of reflective symmetry axes, the amount of rotational symmetry, and the presence of radial symmetry were varied. Orientation affected systematic errors. Judgments tended to undershoot the center of mass. Random errors increased with size and decreased with symmetry. Size had no effect on random errors for maximally symmetric objects, although orientation did. The spatial distributions of judgments were elliptical. Distribution axes were found to align with the principle moments of inertia. Major axes tended to align with gravity in maximally symmetric objects. A functional and physical account was given in terms of the repercussions of error. Overall, judgments were very accurate.

Adverse Drug Events caused by Serious Medication Administration Errors

PubMed Central

Sawarkar, Abhivyakti; Keohane, Carol A.; Maviglia, Saverio; Gandhi, Tejal K; Poon, Eric G

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE To determine how often serious or life-threatening medication administration errors with the potential to cause patient harm (or potential adverse drug events) result in actual patient harm (or adverse drug events (ADEs)) in the hospital setting. DESIGN Retrospective chart review of clinical events that transpired following observed medication administration errors. BACKGROUND Medication errors are common at the medication administration stage for hospitalized patients. While many of these errors are considered capable of causing patient harm, it is not clear how often patients are actually harmed by these errors. METHODS In a previous study where 14,041 medication administrations in an acute-care hospital were directly observed, investigators discovered 1271 medication administration errors, of which 133 had the potential to cause serious or life-threatening harm to patients and were considered serious or life-threatening potential ADEs. In the current study, clinical reviewers conducted detailed chart reviews of cases where a serious or life-threatening potential ADE occurred to determine if an actual ADE developed following the potential ADE. Reviewers further assessed the severity of the ADE and attribution to the administration error. RESULTS Ten (7.5% [95% C.I. 6.98, 8.01]) actual adverse drug events or ADEs resulted from the 133 serious and life-threatening potential ADEs, of which 6 resulted in significant, three in serious, and one life threatening injury. Therefore 4 (3% [95% C.I. 2.12, 3.6]) serious and life threatening potential ADEs led to serious or life threatening ADEs. Half of the ten actual ADEs were caused by dosage or monitoring errors for anti-hypertensives. The life threatening ADE was caused by an error that was both a transcription and a timing error. CONCLUSION Potential ADEs at the medication administration stage can cause serious patient harm. Given previous estimates of serious or life-threatening potential ADE of 1.33 per 100 medication doses administered, in a hospital where 6 million doses are administered per year, about 4000 preventable ADEs would be attributable to medication administration errors annually. PMID:22791691

Gene-targeted Random Mutagenesis to Select Heterochromatin-destabilizing Proteasome Mutants in Fission Yeast.

PubMed

Seo, Hogyu David; Lee, Daeyoup

2018-05-15

Random mutagenesis of a target gene is commonly used to identify mutations that yield the desired phenotype. Of the methods that may be used to achieve random mutagenesis, error-prone PCR is a convenient and efficient strategy for generating a diverse pool of mutants (i.e., a mutant library). Error-prone PCR is the method of choice when a researcher seeks to mutate a pre-defined region, such as the coding region of a gene while leaving other genomic regions unaffected. After the mutant library is amplified by error-prone PCR, it must be cloned into a suitable plasmid. The size of the library generated by error-prone PCR is constrained by the efficiency of the cloning step. However, in the fission yeast, Schizosaccharomyces pombe, the cloning step can be replaced by the use of a highly efficient one-step fusion PCR to generate constructs for transformation. Mutants of desired phenotypes may then be selected using appropriate reporters. Here, we describe this strategy in detail, taking as an example, a reporter inserted at centromeric heterochromatin.

Smooth empirical Bayes estimation of observation error variances in linear systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martz, H. F., Jr.; Lian, M. W.

1972-01-01

A smooth empirical Bayes estimator was developed for estimating the unknown random scale component of each of a set of observation error variances. It is shown that the estimator possesses a smaller average squared error loss than other estimators for a discrete time linear system.

An SEU resistant 256K SOI SRAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hite, L. R.; Lu, H.; Houston, T. W.; Hurta, D. S.; Bailey, W. E.

1992-12-01

A novel SEU (single event upset) resistant SRAM (static random access memory) cell has been implemented in a 256K SOI (silicon on insulator) SRAM that has attractive performance characteristics over the military temperature range of -55 to +125 C. These include worst-case access time of 40 ns with an active power of only 150 mW at 25 MHz, and a worst-case minimum WRITE pulse width of 20 ns. Measured SEU performance gives an Adams 10 percent worst-case error rate of 3.4 x 10 exp -11 errors/bit-day using the CRUP code with a conservative first-upset LET threshold. Modeling does show that higher bipolar gain than that measured on a sample from the SRAM lot would produce a lower error rate. Measurements show the worst-case supply voltage for SEU to be 5.5 V. Analysis has shown this to be primarily caused by the drain voltage dependence of the beta of the SOI parasitic bipolar transistor. Based on this, SEU experiments with SOI devices should include measurements as a function of supply voltage, rather than the traditional 4.5 V, to determine the worst-case condition.

Within-Tunnel Variations in Pressure Data for Three Transonic Wind Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard

2014-01-01

This paper compares the results of pressure measurements made on the same test article with the same test matrix in three transonic wind tunnels. A comparison is presented of the unexplained variance associated with polar replicates acquired in each tunnel. The impact of a significance component of systematic (not random) unexplained variance is reviewed, and the results of analyses of variance are presented to assess the degree of significant systematic error in these representative wind tunnel tests. Total uncertainty estimates are reported for 140 samples of pressure data, quantifying the effects of within-polar random errors and between-polar systematic bias errors.

The accuracy of the measurements in Ulugh Beg's star catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krisciunas, K.

1992-12-01

The star catalogue compiled by Ulugh Beg and his collaborators in Samarkand (ca. 1437) is the only catalogue primarily based on original observations between the times of Ptolemy and Tycho Brahe. Evans (1987) has given convincing evidence that Ulugh Beg's star catalogue was based on measurements made with a zodiacal armillary sphere graduated to 15(') , with interpolation to 0.2 units. He and Shevchenko (1990) were primarily interested in the systematic errors in ecliptic longitude. Shevchenko's analysis of the random errors was limited to the twelve zodiacal constellations. We have analyzed all 843 ecliptic longitudes and latitudes attributed to Ulugh Beg by Knobel (1917). This required multiplying all the longitude errors by the respective values of the cosine of the celestial latitudes. We find a random error of +/- 17minp 7 for ecliptic longitude and +/- 16minp 5 for ecliptic latitude. On the whole, the random errors are largest near the ecliptic, decreasing towards the ecliptic poles. For all of Ulugh Beg's measurements (excluding outliers) the mean systematic error is -10minp 8 +/- 0minp 8 for ecliptic longitude and 7minp 5 +/- 0minp 7 for ecliptic latitude, with the errors in the sense ``computed minus Ulugh Beg''. For the brighter stars (those designated alpha , beta , and gamma in the respective constellations), the mean systematic errors are -11minp 3 +/- 1minp 9 for ecliptic longitude and 9minp 4 +/- 1minp 5 for ecliptic latitude. Within the errors this matches the systematic error in both coordinates for alpha Vir. With greater confidence we may conclude that alpha Vir was the principal reference star in the catalogues of Ulugh Beg and Ptolemy. Evans, J. 1987, J. Hist. Astr. 18, 155. Knobel, E. B. 1917, Ulugh Beg's Catalogue of Stars, Washington, D. C.: Carnegie Institution. Shevchenko, M. 1990, J. Hist. Astr. 21, 187.

Estimation of genetic connectedness diagnostics based on prediction errors without the prediction error variance-covariance matrix.

PubMed

Holmes, John B; Dodds, Ken G; Lee, Michael A

2017-03-02

An important issue in genetic evaluation is the comparability of random effects (breeding values), particularly between pairs of animals in different contemporary groups. This is usually referred to as genetic connectedness. While various measures of connectedness have been proposed in the literature, there is general agreement that the most appropriate measure is some function of the prediction error variance-covariance matrix. However, obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix is computationally demanding for large-scale genetic evaluations. Many alternative statistics have been proposed that avoid the computational cost of obtaining the prediction error variance-covariance matrix, such as counts of genetic links between contemporary groups, gene flow matrices, and functions of the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects. In this paper, we show that a correction to the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects will produce the exact prediction error variance-covariance matrix averaged by contemporary group for univariate models in the presence of single or multiple fixed effects and one random effect. We demonstrate the correction for a series of models and show that approximations to the prediction error matrix based solely on the variance-covariance matrix of estimated contemporary group fixed effects are inappropriate in certain circumstances. Our method allows for the calculation of a connectedness measure based on the prediction error variance-covariance matrix by calculating only the variance-covariance matrix of estimated fixed effects. Since the number of fixed effects in genetic evaluation is usually orders of magnitudes smaller than the number of random effect levels, the computational requirements for our method should be reduced.

The prevalence and causes of visual impairment in seven-year-old children.

PubMed

Ghaderi, Soraya; Hashemi, Hassan; Jafarzadehpur, Ebrahim; Yekta, Abbasali; Ostadimoghaddam, Hadi; Mirzajani, Ali; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi

2018-05-01

To report the prevalence and causes of visual impairment in seven-year-old children in Iran and its relationship with socio-economic conditions. In a cross-sectional population-based study, first-grade students in the primary schools of eight cities in the country were randomly selected from different geographic locations using multistage cluster sampling. The examinations included visual acuity measurement, ocular motility evaluation, and cycloplegic and non-cycloplegic refraction. Using the definitions of the World Health Organization (presenting visual acuity less than or equal to 6/18 in the better eye) to estimate the prevalence of vision impairment, the present study reported presenting visual impairment in seven-year-old children. Of 4,614 selected students, 4,106 students participated in the study (response rate 89 per cent), of whom 2,127 (51.8 per cent) were male. The prevalence of visual impairment according to a visual acuity of 6/18 was 0.341 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 0.187-0.571); 1.34 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 1.011-1.74) of children had visual impairment according to a visual acuity of 6/18 in at least one eye. Sixty-six (1.6 per cent) and 23 (0.24 per cent) children had visual impairment according to a visual acuity of 6/12 in the worse and better eye, respectively. The most common causes of visual impairment were refractive errors (81.8 per cent) and amblyopia (14.5 per cent). Among different types of refractive errors, astigmatism was the main refractive error leading to visual impairment. According to the concentration index, the distribution of visual impairment in children from low-income families was higher. This study revealed a high prevalence of visual impairment in a representative sample of seven-year-old Iranian children. Astigmatism and amblyopia were the most common causes of visual impairment. The distribution of visual impairment was higher in children from low-income families. Cost-effective strategies are needed to address these easily treatable causes of visual impairment. © 2017 Optometry Australia.

Identifying types and causes of errors in mortality data in a clinical registry using multiple information systems.

PubMed

Koetsier, Antonie; Peek, Niels; de Keizer, Nicolette

2012-01-01

Errors may occur in the registration of in-hospital mortality, making it less reliable as a quality indicator. We assessed the types of errors made in in-hospital mortality registration in the clinical quality registry National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) by comparing its mortality data to data from a national insurance claims database. Subsequently, we performed site visits at eleven Intensive Care Units (ICUs) to investigate the number, types and causes of errors made in in-hospital mortality registration. A total of 255 errors were found in the NICE registry. Two different types of software malfunction accounted for almost 80% of the errors. The remaining 20% were five types of manual transcription errors and human failures to record outcome data. Clinical registries should be aware of the possible existence of errors in recorded outcome data and understand their causes. In order to prevent errors, we recommend to thoroughly verify the software that is used in the registration process.

[National survey of blindness and avoidable visual impairment in Argentina, 2013].

PubMed

Barrenechea, Rosario; de la Fuente, Inés; Plaza, Roberto Gustavo; Flores, Nadia; Segovia, Lía; Villagómez, Zaida; Camarero, Esteban Elián; Zepeda-Romero, Luz Consuelo; Lansingh, Van C; Limburg, Hans; Silva, Juan Carlos

2015-01-01

Determine the prevalence of blindness and avoidable visual impairment in Argentina, its causes, the coverage of cataract surgery, and the barriers that hinder access to these services. Cross-sectional population study conducted between May and November 2013 using the standard methodology for rapid assessment of avoidable blindness (RAAB), with a random cluster sampling of 50 people aged 50 years or more, -representative of the entire country. Participants' visual acuity (VA) was measured and the lens and posterior pole were examined by direct ophthalmoscopy. An assessment was made of the causes of having VA < 20/60, the coverage and quality of cataract surgery, and the barriers to accessing treatment. 3 770 people were assessed (92.0% of the projected number). The prevalence of blindness was 0.7% (confidence interval of 95%: 0.4-1.0%). Unoperated cataract was the main cause of blindness and severe visual impairment (44.0% and 71.1%, respectively), while the main cause of moderate visual impairment was uncorrected refractive errors (77.8%). Coverage of cataract surgery was of 97.1%, and 82.0% of operated eyes achieved VA ≥ 20/60. The main barriers to receiving this treatment were fear of the surgical procedure or of a poor result (34.9%), the cost (30.2%), and not having access to the treatment (16.3%). There is a low prevalence of blindness in the studied population and cataract is the main cause of blindness and severe visual impairment. Efforts should continue to extend coverage of cataract surgery, enhance preoperative evaluation, improve calculations of the intraocular lenses that patients need, and correct post-operative refractive errors with greater precision.

Random access to mobile networks with advanced error correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dippold, Michael

1990-01-01

A random access scheme for unreliable data channels is investigated in conjunction with an adaptive Hybrid-II Automatic Repeat Request (ARQ) scheme using Rate Compatible Punctured Codes (RCPC) Forward Error Correction (FEC). A simple scheme with fixed frame length and equal slot sizes is chosen and reservation is implicit by the first packet transmitted randomly in a free slot, similar to Reservation Aloha. This allows the further transmission of redundancy if the last decoding attempt failed. Results show that a high channel utilization and superior throughput can be achieved with this scheme that shows a quite low implementation complexity. For the example of an interleaved Rayleigh channel and soft decision utilization and mean delay are calculated. A utilization of 40 percent may be achieved for a frame with the number of slots being equal to half the station number under high traffic load. The effects of feedback channel errors and some countermeasures are discussed.

Predicting the random drift of MEMS gyroscope based on K-means clustering and OLS RBF Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen-yu; Zhang, Li-jie

2017-10-01

Measure error of the sensor can be effectively compensated with prediction. Aiming at large random drift error of MEMS(Micro Electro Mechanical System))gyroscope, an improved learning algorithm of Radial Basis Function(RBF) Neural Network(NN) based on K-means clustering and Orthogonal Least-Squares (OLS) is proposed in this paper. The algorithm selects the typical samples as the initial cluster centers of RBF NN firstly, candidates centers with K-means algorithm secondly, and optimizes the candidate centers with OLS algorithm thirdly, which makes the network structure simpler and makes the prediction performance better. Experimental results show that the proposed K-means clustering OLS learning algorithm can predict the random drift of MEMS gyroscope effectively, the prediction error of which is 9.8019e-007°/s and the prediction time of which is 2.4169e-006s

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Tian, Yudong

2011-01-01

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Sloppy-slotted ALOHA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crozier, Stewart N.

1990-01-01

Random access signaling, which allows slotted packets to spill over into adjacent slots, is investigated. It is shown that sloppy-slotted ALOHA can always provide higher throughput than conventional slotted ALOHA. The degree of improvement depends on the timing error distribution. Throughput performance is presented for Gaussian timing error distributions, modified to include timing error corrections. A general channel capacity lower bound, independent of the specific timing error distribution, is also presented.

A general method for the definition of margin recipes depending on the treatment technique applied in helical tomotherapy prostate plans.

PubMed

Sevillano, David; Mínguez, Cristina; Sánchez, Alicia; Sánchez-Reyes, Alberto

2016-01-01

To obtain specific margin recipes that take into account the dosimetric characteristics of the treatment plans used in a single institution. We obtained dose-population histograms (DPHs) of 20 helical tomotherapy treatment plans for prostate cancer by simulating the effects of different systematic errors (Σ) and random errors (σ) on these plans. We obtained dosimetric margins and margin reductions due to random errors (random margins) by fitting the theoretical results of coverages for Gaussian distributions with coverages of the planned D99% obtained from the DPHs. The dosimetric margins obtained for helical tomotherapy prostate treatments were 3.3 mm, 3 mm, and 1 mm in the lateral (Lat), anterior-posterior (AP), and superior-inferior (SI) directions. Random margins showed parabolic dependencies, yielding expressions of 0.16σ(2), 0.13σ(2), and 0.15σ(2) for the Lat, AP, and SI directions, respectively. When focusing on values up to σ = 5 mm, random margins could be fitted considering Gaussian penumbras with standard deviations (σp) equal to 4.5 mm Lat, 6 mm AP, and 5.5 mm SI. Despite complex dose distributions in helical tomotherapy treatment plans, we were able to simplify the behaviour of our plans against treatment errors to single values of dosimetric and random margins for each direction. These margins allowed us to develop specific margin recipes for the respective treatment technique. The method is general and could be used for any treatment technique provided that DPHs can be obtained. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model studies of the beam-filling error for rain-rate retrieval with microwave radiometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ha, Eunho; North, Gerald R.

1995-01-01

Low-frequency (less than 20 GHz) single-channel microwave retrievals of rain rate encounter the problem of beam-filling error. This error stems from the fact that the relationship between microwave brightness temperature and rain rate is nonlinear, coupled with the fact that the field of view is large or comparable to important scales of variability of the rain field. This means that one may not simply insert the area average of the brightness temperature into the formula for rain rate without incurring both bias and random error. The statistical heterogeneity of the rain-rate field in the footprint of the instrument is key to determining the nature of these errors. This paper makes use of a series of random rain-rate fields to study the size of the bias and random error associated with beam filling. A number of examples are analyzed in detail: the binomially distributed field, the gamma, the Gaussian, the mixed gamma, the lognormal, and the mixed lognormal ('mixed' here means there is a finite probability of no rain rate at a point of space-time). Of particular interest are the applicability of a simple error formula due to Chiu and collaborators and a formula that might hold in the large field of view limit. It is found that the simple formula holds for Gaussian rain-rate fields but begins to fail for highly skewed fields such as the mixed lognormal. While not conclusively demonstrated here, it is suggested that the notionof climatologically adjusting the retrievals to remove the beam-filling bias is a reasonable proposition.

Technical Note: Millimeter precision in ultrasound based patient positioning: Experimental quantification of inherent technical limitations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ballhausen, Hendrik, E-mail: hendrik.ballhausen@med.uni-muenchen.de; Hieber, Sheila; Li, Minglun

2014-08-15

Purpose: To identify the relevant technical sources of error of a system based on three-dimensional ultrasound (3D US) for patient positioning in external beam radiotherapy. To quantify these sources of error in a controlled laboratory setting. To estimate the resulting end-to-end geometric precision of the intramodality protocol. Methods: Two identical free-hand 3D US systems at both the planning-CT and the treatment room were calibrated to the laboratory frame of reference. Every step of the calibration chain was repeated multiple times to estimate its contribution to overall systematic and random error. Optimal margins were computed given the identified and quantified systematicmore » and random errors. Results: In descending order of magnitude, the identified and quantified sources of error were: alignment of calibration phantom to laser marks 0.78 mm, alignment of lasers in treatment vs planning room 0.51 mm, calibration and tracking of 3D US probe 0.49 mm, alignment of stereoscopic infrared camera to calibration phantom 0.03 mm. Under ideal laboratory conditions, these errors are expected to limit ultrasound-based positioning to an accuracy of 1.05 mm radially. Conclusions: The investigated 3D ultrasound system achieves an intramodal accuracy of about 1 mm radially in a controlled laboratory setting. The identified systematic and random errors require an optimal clinical tumor volume to planning target volume margin of about 3 mm. These inherent technical limitations do not prevent clinical use, including hypofractionation or stereotactic body radiation therapy.« less

A new model of Ishikawa diagram for quality assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liliana, Luca

2016-11-01

The paper presents the results of a study concerning the use of the Ishikawa diagram in analyzing the causes that determine errors in the evaluation of theparts precision in the machine construction field. The studied problem was"errors in the evaluation of partsprecision” and this constitutes the head of the Ishikawa diagram skeleton.All the possible, main and secondary causes that could generate the studied problem were identified. The most known Ishikawa models are 4M, 5M, 6M, the initials being in order: materials, methods, man, machines, mother nature, measurement. The paper shows the potential causes of the studied problem, which were firstly grouped in three categories, as follows: causes that lead to errors in assessing the dimensional accuracy, causes that determine errors in the evaluation of shape and position abnormalities and causes for errors in roughness evaluation. We took into account the main components of parts precision in the machine construction field. For each of the three categories of causes there were distributed potential secondary causes on groups of M (man, methods, machines, materials, environment/ medio ambiente-sp.). We opted for a new model of Ishikawa diagram, resulting from the composition of three fish skeletons corresponding to the main categories of parts accuracy.

Discrepancy-based error estimates for Quasi-Monte Carlo III. Error distributions and central limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogland, Jiri; Kleiss, Ronald

1997-04-01

In Quasi-Monte Carlo integration, the integration error is believed to be generally smaller than in classical Monte Carlo with the same number of integration points. Using an appropriate definition of an ensemble of quasi-random point sets, we derive various results on the probability distribution of the integration error, which can be compared to the standard Central Limit Theorem for normal stochastic sampling. In many cases, a Gaussian error distribution is obtained.

Parallel computers - Estimate errors caused by imprecise data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreinovich, Vladik; Bernat, Andrew; Villa, Elsa; Mariscal, Yvonne

1991-01-01

A new approach to the problem of estimating errors caused by imprecise data is proposed in the context of software engineering. A software device is used to produce an ideal solution to the problem, when the computer is capable of computing errors of arbitrary programs. The software engineering aspect of this problem is to describe a device for computing the error estimates in software terms and then to provide precise numbers with error estimates to the user. The feasibility of the program capable of computing both some quantity and its error estimate in the range of possible measurement errors is demonstrated.

Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

2015-07-01

Physically based models provide insights into key hydrologic processes but are associated with uncertainties due to deficiencies in forcing data, model parameters, and model structure. Forcing uncertainty is enhanced in snow-affected catchments, where weather stations are scarce and prone to measurement errors, and meteorological variables exhibit high variability. Hence, there is limited understanding of how forcing error characteristics affect simulations of cold region hydrology and which error characteristics are most important. Here we employ global sensitivity analysis to explore how (1) different error types (i.e., bias, random errors), (2) different error probability distributions, and (3) different error magnitudes influence physically based simulations of four snow variables (snow water equivalent, ablation rates, snow disappearance, and sublimation). We use the Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, which is typically used for model parameters but adapted here for testing model sensitivity to coexisting errors in all forcings. We quantify the Utah Energy Balance model's sensitivity to forcing errors with 1 840 000 Monte Carlo simulations across four sites and five different scenarios. Model outputs were (1) consistently more sensitive to forcing biases than random errors, (2) generally less sensitive to forcing error distributions, and (3) critically sensitive to different forcings depending on the relative magnitude of errors. For typical error magnitudes found in areas with drifting snow, precipitation bias was the most important factor for snow water equivalent, ablation rates, and snow disappearance timing, but other forcings had a more dominant impact when precipitation uncertainty was due solely to gauge undercatch. Additionally, the relative importance of forcing errors depended on the model output of interest. Sensitivity analysis can reveal which forcing error characteristics matter most for hydrologic modeling.

Effect of Random Circuit Fabrication Errors on Small Signal Gain and Phase in Helix Traveling Wave Tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pengvanich, P.; Chernin, D. P.; Lau, Y. Y.; Luginsland, J. W.; Gilgenbach, R. M.

2007-11-01

Motivated by the current interest in mm-wave and THz sources, which use miniature, difficult-to-fabricate circuit components, we evaluate the statistical effects of random fabrication errors on a helix traveling wave tube amplifier's small signal characteristics. The small signal theory is treated in a continuum model in which the electron beam is assumed to be monoenergetic, and axially symmetric about the helix axis. Perturbations that vary randomly along the beam axis are introduced in the dimensionless Pierce parameters b, the beam-wave velocity mismatch, C, the gain parameter, and d, the cold tube circuit loss. Our study shows, as expected, that perturbation in b dominates the other two. The extensive numerical data have been confirmed by our analytic theory. They show in particular that the standard deviation of the output phase is linearly proportional to standard deviation of the individual perturbations in b, C, and d. Simple formulas have been derived which yield the output phase variations in terms of the statistical random manufacturing errors. This work was supported by AFOSR and by ONR.

Accuracy of indirect estimation of power output from uphill performance in cycling.

PubMed

Millet, Grégoire P; Tronche, Cyrille; Grappe, Frédéric

2014-09-01

To use measurement by cycling power meters (Pmes) to evaluate the accuracy of commonly used models for estimating uphill cycling power (Pest). Experiments were designed to explore the influence of wind speed and steepness of climb on accuracy of Pest. The authors hypothesized that the random error in Pest would be largely influenced by the windy conditions, the bias would be diminished in steeper climbs, and windy conditions would induce larger bias in Pest. Sixteen well-trained cyclists performed 15 uphill-cycling trials (range: length 1.3-6.3 km, slope 4.4-10.7%) in a random order. Trials included different riding position in a group (lead or follow) and different wind speeds. Pmes was quantified using a power meter, and Pest was calculated with a methodology used by journalists reporting on the Tour de France. Overall, the difference between Pmes and Pest was -0.95% (95%CI: -10.4%, +8.5%) for all trials and 0.24% (-6.1%, +6.6%) in conditions without wind (<2 m/s). The relationship between percent slope and the error between Pest and Pmes were considered trivial. Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.

Influence of video compression on the measurement error of the television system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotnik, A. V.; Yarishev, S. N.; Korotaev, V. V.

2015-05-01

Video data require a very large memory capacity. Optimal ratio quality / volume video encoding method is one of the most actual problem due to the urgent need to transfer large amounts of video over various networks. The technology of digital TV signal compression reduces the amount of data used for video stream representation. Video compression allows effective reduce the stream required for transmission and storage. It is important to take into account the uncertainties caused by compression of the video signal in the case of television measuring systems using. There are a lot digital compression methods. The aim of proposed work is research of video compression influence on the measurement error in television systems. Measurement error of the object parameter is the main characteristic of television measuring systems. Accuracy characterizes the difference between the measured value abd the actual parameter value. Errors caused by the optical system can be selected as a source of error in the television systems measurements. Method of the received video signal processing is also a source of error. Presence of error leads to large distortions in case of compression with constant data stream rate. Presence of errors increases the amount of data required to transmit or record an image frame in case of constant quality. The purpose of the intra-coding is reducing of the spatial redundancy within a frame (or field) of television image. This redundancy caused by the strong correlation between the elements of the image. It is possible to convert an array of image samples into a matrix of coefficients that are not correlated with each other, if one can find corresponding orthogonal transformation. It is possible to apply entropy coding to these uncorrelated coefficients and achieve a reduction in the digital stream. One can select such transformation that most of the matrix coefficients will be almost zero for typical images . Excluding these zero coefficients also possible reducing of the digital stream. Discrete cosine transformation is most widely used among possible orthogonal transformation. Errors of television measuring systems and data compression protocols analyzed In this paper. The main characteristics of measuring systems and detected sources of their error detected. The most effective methods of video compression are determined. The influence of video compression error on television measuring systems was researched. Obtained results will increase the accuracy of the measuring systems. In television image quality measuring system reduces distortion identical distortion in analog systems and specific distortions resulting from the process of coding / decoding digital video signal and errors in the transmission channel. By the distortions associated with encoding / decoding signal include quantization noise, reducing resolution, mosaic effect, "mosquito" effect edging on sharp drops brightness, blur colors, false patterns, the effect of "dirty window" and other defects. The size of video compression algorithms used in television measuring systems based on the image encoding with intra- and inter prediction individual fragments. The process of encoding / decoding image is non-linear in space and in time, because the quality of the playback of a movie at the reception depends on the pre- and post-history of a random, from the preceding and succeeding tracks, which can lead to distortion of the inadequacy of the sub-picture and a corresponding measuring signal.

Errors in otology.

PubMed

Kartush, J M

1996-11-01

Practicing medicine successfully requires that errors in diagnosis and treatment be minimized. Malpractice laws encourage litigators to ascribe all medical errors to incompetence and negligence. There are, however, many other causes of unintended outcomes. This article describes common causes of errors and suggests ways to minimize mistakes in otologic practice. Widespread dissemination of knowledge about common errors and their precursors can reduce the incidence of their occurrence. Consequently, laws should be passed to allow for a system of non-punitive, confidential reporting of errors and "near misses" that can be shared by physicians nationwide.

Death Certification Errors and the Effect on Mortality Statistics.

PubMed

McGivern, Lauri; Shulman, Leanne; Carney, Jan K; Shapiro, Steven; Bundock, Elizabeth

Errors in cause and manner of death on death certificates are common and affect families, mortality statistics, and public health research. The primary objective of this study was to characterize errors in the cause and manner of death on death certificates completed by non-Medical Examiners. A secondary objective was to determine the effects of errors on national mortality statistics. We retrospectively compared 601 death certificates completed between July 1, 2015, and January 31, 2016, from the Vermont Electronic Death Registration System with clinical summaries from medical records. Medical Examiners, blinded to original certificates, reviewed summaries, generated mock certificates, and compared mock certificates with original certificates. They then graded errors using a scale from 1 to 4 (higher numbers indicated increased impact on interpretation of the cause) to determine the prevalence of minor and major errors. They also compared International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes on original certificates with those on mock certificates. Of 601 original death certificates, 319 (53%) had errors; 305 (51%) had major errors; and 59 (10%) had minor errors. We found no significant differences by certifier type (physician vs nonphysician). We did find significant differences in major errors in place of death ( P < .001). Certificates for deaths occurring in hospitals were more likely to have major errors than certificates for deaths occurring at a private residence (59% vs 39%, P < .001). A total of 580 (93%) death certificates had a change in ICD-10 codes between the original and mock certificates, of which 348 (60%) had a change in the underlying cause-of-death code. Error rates on death certificates in Vermont are high and extend to ICD-10 coding, thereby affecting national mortality statistics. Surveillance and certifier education must expand beyond local and state efforts. Simplifying and standardizing underlying literal text for cause of death may improve accuracy, decrease coding errors, and improve national mortality statistics.

Fast, Simple and Accurate Handwritten Digit Classification by Training Shallow Neural Network Classifiers with the ‘Extreme Learning Machine’ Algorithm

PubMed Central

McDonnell, Mark D.; Tissera, Migel D.; Vladusich, Tony; van Schaik, André; Tapson, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Recent advances in training deep (multi-layer) architectures have inspired a renaissance in neural network use. For example, deep convolutional networks are becoming the default option for difficult tasks on large datasets, such as image and speech recognition. However, here we show that error rates below 1% on the MNIST handwritten digit benchmark can be replicated with shallow non-convolutional neural networks. This is achieved by training such networks using the ‘Extreme Learning Machine’ (ELM) approach, which also enables a very rapid training time (∼ 10 minutes). Adding distortions, as is common practise for MNIST, reduces error rates even further. Our methods are also shown to be capable of achieving less than 5.5% error rates on the NORB image database. To achieve these results, we introduce several enhancements to the standard ELM algorithm, which individually and in combination can significantly improve performance. The main innovation is to ensure each hidden-unit operates only on a randomly sized and positioned patch of each image. This form of random ‘receptive field’ sampling of the input ensures the input weight matrix is sparse, with about 90% of weights equal to zero. Furthermore, combining our methods with a small number of iterations of a single-batch backpropagation method can significantly reduce the number of hidden-units required to achieve a particular performance. Our close to state-of-the-art results for MNIST and NORB suggest that the ease of use and accuracy of the ELM algorithm for designing a single-hidden-layer neural network classifier should cause it to be given greater consideration either as a standalone method for simpler problems, or as the final classification stage in deep neural networks applied to more difficult problems. PMID:26262687

Systematic bias in genomic classification due to contaminating non-neoplastic tissue in breast tumor samples.

PubMed

Elloumi, Fathi; Hu, Zhiyuan; Li, Yan; Parker, Joel S; Gulley, Margaret L; Amos, Keith D; Troester, Melissa A

2011-06-30

Genomic tests are available to predict breast cancer recurrence and to guide clinical decision making. These predictors provide recurrence risk scores along with a measure of uncertainty, usually a confidence interval. The confidence interval conveys random error and not systematic bias. Standard tumor sampling methods make this problematic, as it is common to have a substantial proportion (typically 30-50%) of a tumor sample comprised of histologically benign tissue. This "normal" tissue could represent a source of non-random error or systematic bias in genomic classification. To assess the performance characteristics of genomic classification to systematic error from normal contamination, we collected 55 tumor samples and paired tumor-adjacent normal tissue. Using genomic signatures from the tumor and paired normal, we evaluated how increasing normal contamination altered recurrence risk scores for various genomic predictors. Simulations of normal tissue contamination caused misclassification of tumors in all predictors evaluated, but different breast cancer predictors showed different types of vulnerability to normal tissue bias. While two predictors had unpredictable direction of bias (either higher or lower risk of relapse resulted from normal contamination), one signature showed predictable direction of normal tissue effects. Due to this predictable direction of effect, this signature (the PAM50) was adjusted for normal tissue contamination and these corrections improved sensitivity and negative predictive value. For all three assays quality control standards and/or appropriate bias adjustment strategies can be used to improve assay reliability. Normal tissue sampled concurrently with tumor is an important source of bias in breast genomic predictors. All genomic predictors show some sensitivity to normal tissue contamination and ideal strategies for mitigating this bias vary depending upon the particular genes and computational methods used in the predictor.

Metabolite and transcript markers for the prediction of potato drought tolerance.

PubMed

Sprenger, Heike; Erban, Alexander; Seddig, Sylvia; Rudack, Katharina; Thalhammer, Anja; Le, Mai Q; Walther, Dirk; Zuther, Ellen; Köhl, Karin I; Kopka, Joachim; Hincha, Dirk K

2018-04-01

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is one of the most important food crops worldwide. Current potato varieties are highly susceptible to drought stress. In view of global climate change, selection of cultivars with improved drought tolerance and high yield potential is of paramount importance. Drought tolerance breeding of potato is currently based on direct selection according to yield and phenotypic traits and requires multiple trials under drought conditions. Marker-assisted selection (MAS) is cheaper, faster and reduces classification errors caused by noncontrolled environmental effects. We analysed 31 potato cultivars grown under optimal and reduced water supply in six independent field trials. Drought tolerance was determined as tuber starch yield. Leaf samples from young plants were screened for preselected transcript and nontargeted metabolite abundance using qRT-PCR and GC-MS profiling, respectively. Transcript marker candidates were selected from a published RNA-Seq data set. A Random Forest machine learning approach extracted metabolite and transcript markers for drought tolerance prediction with low error rates of 6% and 9%, respectively. Moreover, by combining transcript and metabolite markers, the prediction error was reduced to 4.3%. Feature selection from Random Forest models allowed model minimization, yielding a minimal combination of only 20 metabolite and transcript markers that were successfully tested for their reproducibility in 16 independent agronomic field trials. We demonstrate that a minimum combination of transcript and metabolite markers sampled at early cultivation stages predicts potato yield stability under drought largely independent of seasonal and regional agronomic conditions. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesson, R.

1973-01-01

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not amore » well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.« less

Transient fault behavior in a microprocessor: A case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duba, Patrick

1989-01-01

An experimental analysis is described which studies the susceptibility of a microprocessor based jet engine controller to upsets caused by current and voltage transients. A design automation environment which allows the run time injection of transients and the tracing from their impact device to the pin level is described. The resulting error data are categorized by the charge levels of the injected transients by location and by their potential to cause logic upsets, latched errors, and pin errors. The results show a 3 picoCouloumb threshold, below which the transients have little impact. An Arithmetic and Logic Unit transient is most likely to result in logic upsets and pin errors (i.e., impact the external environment). The transients in the countdown unit are potentially serious since they can result in latched errors, thus causing latent faults. Suggestions to protect the processor against these errors, by incorporating internal error detection and transient suppression techniques, are also made.

The current and ideal state of anatomic pathology patient safety.

PubMed

Raab, Stephen Spencer

2014-01-01

An anatomic pathology diagnostic error may be secondary to a number of active and latent technical and/or cognitive components, which may occur anywhere along the total testing process in clinical and/or laboratory domains. For the pathologist interpretive steps of diagnosis, we examine Kahneman's framework of slow and fast thinking to explain different causes of error in precision (agreement) and in accuracy (truth). The pathologist cognitive diagnostic process involves image pattern recognition and a slow thinking error may be caused by the application of different rationally-constructed mental maps of image criteria/patterns by different pathologists. This type of error is partly related to a system failure in standardizing the application of these maps. A fast thinking error involves the flawed leap from image pattern to incorrect diagnosis. In the ideal state, anatomic pathology systems would target these cognitive error causes as well as the technical latent factors that lead to error.

Numerical Error Estimation with UQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackmann, Jan; Korn, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem

2014-05-01

Ocean models are still in need of means to quantify model errors, which are inevitably made when running numerical experiments. The total model error can formally be decomposed into two parts, the formulation error and the discretization error. The formulation error arises from the continuous formulation of the model not fully describing the studied physical process. The discretization error arises from having to solve a discretized model instead of the continuously formulated model. Our work on error estimation is concerned with the discretization error. Given a solution of a discretized model, our general problem statement is to find a way to quantify the uncertainties due to discretization in physical quantities of interest (diagnostics), which are frequently used in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. The approach we use to tackle this problem is called the "Goal Error Ensemble method". The basic idea of the Goal Error Ensemble method is that errors in diagnostics can be translated into a weighted sum of local model errors, which makes it conceptually based on the Dual Weighted Residual method from Computational Fluid Dynamics. In contrast to the Dual Weighted Residual method these local model errors are not considered deterministically but interpreted as local model uncertainty and described stochastically by a random process. The parameters for the random process are tuned with high-resolution near-initial model information. However, the original Goal Error Ensemble method, introduced in [1], was successfully evaluated only in the case of inviscid flows without lateral boundaries in a shallow-water framework and is hence only of limited use in a numerical ocean model. Our work consists in extending the method to bounded, viscous flows in a shallow-water framework. As our numerical model, we use the ICON-Shallow-Water model. In viscous flows our high-resolution information is dependent on the viscosity parameter, making our uncertainty measures viscosity-dependent. We will show that we can choose a sensible parameter by using the Reynolds-number as a criteria. Another topic, we will discuss is the choice of the underlying distribution of the random process. This is especially of importance in the scope of lateral boundaries. We will present resulting error estimates for different height- and velocity-based diagnostics applied to the Munk gyre experiment. References [1] F. RAUSER: Error Estimation in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics through Learning; PhD Thesis, IMPRS-ESM, Hamburg, 2010 [2] F. RAUSER, J. MAROTZKE, P. KORN: Ensemble-type numerical uncertainty quantification from single model integrations; SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, submitted

The detection of problem analytes in a single proficiency test challenge in the absence of the Health Care Financing Administration rule violations.

PubMed

Cembrowski, G S; Hackney, J R; Carey, N

1993-04-01

The Clinical Laboratory Improvement Act of 1988 (CLIA 88) has dramatically changed proficiency testing (PT) practices having mandated (1) satisfactory PT for certain analytes as a condition of laboratory operation, (2) fixed PT limits for many of these "regulated" analytes, and (3) an increased number of PT specimens (n = 5) for each testing cycle. For many of these analytes, the fixed limits are much broader than the previously employed Standard Deviation Index (SDI) criteria. Paradoxically, there may be less incentive to identify and evaluate analytically significant outliers to improve the analytical process. Previously described "control rules" to evaluate these PT results are unworkable as they consider only two or three results. We used Monte Carlo simulations of Kodak Ektachem analyzers participating in PT to determine optimal control rules for the identification of PT results that are inconsistent with those from other laboratories using the same methods. The analysis of three representative analytes, potassium, creatine kinase, and iron was simulated with varying intrainstrument and interinstrument standard deviations (si and sg, respectively) obtained from the College of American Pathologists (Northfield, Ill) Quality Assurance Services data and Proficiency Test data, respectively. Analytical errors were simulated in each of the analytes and evaluated in terms of multiples of the interlaboratory SDI. Simple control rules for detecting systematic and random error were evaluated with power function graphs, graphs of probability of error detected vs magnitude of error. Based on the simulation results, we recommend screening all analytes for the occurrence of two or more observations exceeding the same +/- 1 SDI limit. For any analyte satisfying this condition, the mean of the observations should be calculated. For analytes with sg/si ratios between 1.0 and 1.5, a significant systematic error is signaled by the mean exceeding 1.0 SDI. Significant random error is signaled by one observation exceeding the +/- 3-SDI limit or the range of the observations exceeding 4 SDIs. For analytes with higher sg/si, significant systematic or random error is signaled by violation of the screening rule (having at least two observations exceeding the same +/- 1 SDI limit). Random error can also be signaled by one observation exceeding the +/- 1.5-SDI limit or the range of the observations exceeding 3 SDIs. We present a practical approach to the workup of apparent PT errors.

Data and results of a laboratory investigation of microprocessor upset caused by simulated lightning-induced analog transients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, C. M.

1984-01-01

A methodology was developed a assess the upset susceptibility/reliability of a computer system onboard an aircraft flying through a lightning environment. Upset error modes in a general purpose microprocessor were studied. The upset tests involved the random input of analog transients which model lightning induced signals onto interface lines of an 8080 based microcomputer from which upset error data was recorded. The program code on the microprocessor during tests is designed to exercise all of the machine cycles and memory addressing techniques implemented in the 8080 central processing unit. A statistical analysis is presented in which possible correlations are established between the probability of upset occurrence and transient signal inputs during specific processing states and operations. A stochastic upset susceptibility model for the 8080 microprocessor is presented. The susceptibility of this microprocessor to upset, once analog transients have entered the system, is determined analytically by calculating the state probabilities of the stochastic model.

Analysis and improvement of the quantum image matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dang, Yijie; Jiang, Nan; Hu, Hao; Zhang, Wenyin

2017-11-01

We investigate the quantum image matching algorithm proposed by Jiang et al. (Quantum Inf Process 15(9):3543-3572, 2016). Although the complexity of this algorithm is much better than the classical exhaustive algorithm, there may be an error in it: After matching the area between two images, only the pixel at the upper left corner of the matched area played part in following steps. That is to say, the paper only matched one pixel, instead of an area. If more than one pixels in the big image are the same as the one at the upper left corner of the small image, the algorithm will randomly measure one of them, which causes the error. In this paper, an improved version is presented which takes full advantage of the whole matched area to locate a small image in a big image. The theoretical analysis indicates that the network complexity is higher than the previous algorithm, but it is still far lower than the classical algorithm. Hence, this algorithm is still efficient.

A root cause analysis project in a medication safety course.

PubMed

Schafer, Jason J

2012-08-10

To develop, implement, and evaluate team-based root cause analysis projects as part of a required medication safety course for second-year pharmacy students. Lectures, in-class activities, and out-of-class reading assignments were used to develop students' medication safety skills and introduce them to the culture of medication safety. Students applied these skills within teams by evaluating cases of medication errors using root cause analyses. Teams also developed error prevention strategies and formally presented their findings. Student performance was assessed using a medication errors evaluation rubric. Of the 211 students who completed the course, the majority performed well on root cause analysis assignments and rated them favorably on course evaluations. Medication error evaluation and prevention was successfully introduced in a medication safety course using team-based root cause analysis projects.

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs drawn from a bivariate normal distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, C. W.

1983-01-01

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs from a bivariate normal distribution was developed. Any desired value of the two means, two standard deviations, and correlation coefficient can be selected. Theoretically the technique is exact and in practice its accuracy is limited only by the quality of the uniform distribution random number generator, inaccuracies in computer function evaluation, and arithmetic. A FORTRAN routine was written to check the algorithm and good accuracy was obtained. Some small errors in the correlation coefficient were observed to vary in a surprisingly regular manner. A simple model was developed which explained the qualities aspects of the errors.

Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

PubMed Central

Ngendahimana, David K.; Fagerholm, Cara L.; Sun, Jiayang; Bruckman, Laura S.

2017-01-01

Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index (YI) and haze (%). Exposures with similar change in YI were modeled using a linear fixed-effects modeling approach. Due to the complex nature of haze formation, measurement uncertainty, and the differences in the samples’ responses, the change in haze (%) depended on individual samples’ responses and a linear mixed-effects modeling approach was used. When compared to fixed-effects models, the addition of random effects in the haze formation models significantly increased the variance explained. For both modeling approaches, diagnostic plots confirmed independence and homogeneity with normally distributed residual errors. Predictive R2 values for true prediction error and predictive power of the models demonstrated that the models were not subject to over-fitting. These models enable prediction under pre-defined exposure conditions for a given exposure time (or photo-dosage in case of UV light exposure). PET degradation under cyclic exposures combining UV light and condensing humidity is caused by photolytic and hydrolytic mechanisms causing yellowing and haze formation. Quantitative knowledge of these degradation pathways enable cross-correlation of these lab-based exposures with real-world conditions for service life prediction. PMID:28498875

An Examination of the Causes and Solutions to Eyewitness Error

PubMed Central

Wise, Richard A.; Sartori, Giuseppe; Magnussen, Svein; Safer, Martin A.

2014-01-01

Eyewitness error is one of the leading causes of wrongful convictions. In fact, the American Psychological Association estimates that one in three eyewitnesses make an erroneous identification. In this review, we look briefly at some of the causes of eyewitness error. We examine what jurors, judges, attorneys, law officers, and experts from various countries know about eyewitness testimony and memory, and if they have the requisite knowledge and skills to accurately assess eyewitness testimony. We evaluate whether legal safeguards such as voir dire, motion-to-suppress an identification, cross-examination, jury instructions, and eyewitness expert testimony are effective in identifying eyewitness errors. Lastly, we discuss solutions to eyewitness error. PMID:25165459

Precise method of compensating radiation-induced errors in a hot-cathode-ionization gauge with correcting electrode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saeki, Hiroshi, E-mail: saeki@spring8.or.jp; Magome, Tamotsu, E-mail: saeki@spring8.or.jp

2014-10-06

To compensate pressure-measurement errors caused by a synchrotron radiation environment, a precise method using a hot-cathode-ionization-gauge head with correcting electrode, was developed and tested in a simulation experiment with excess electrons in the SPring-8 storage ring. This precise method to improve the measurement accuracy, can correctly reduce the pressure-measurement errors caused by electrons originating from the external environment, and originating from the primary gauge filament influenced by spatial conditions of the installed vacuum-gauge head. As the result of the simulation experiment to confirm the performance reducing the errors caused by the external environment, the pressure-measurement error using this method wasmore » approximately less than several percent in the pressure range from 10{sup −5} Pa to 10{sup −8} Pa. After the experiment, to confirm the performance reducing the error caused by spatial conditions, an additional experiment was carried out using a sleeve and showed that the improved function was available.« less

Positivity, discontinuity, finite resources, and nonzero error for arbitrarily varying quantum channels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boche, H., E-mail: boche@tum.de, E-mail: janis.noetzel@tum.de; Nötzel, J., E-mail: boche@tum.de, E-mail: janis.noetzel@tum.de

2014-12-15

This work is motivated by a quite general question: Under which circumstances are the capacities of information transmission systems continuous? The research is explicitly carried out on finite arbitrarily varying quantum channels (AVQCs). We give an explicit example that answers the recent question whether the transmission of messages over AVQCs can benefit from assistance by distribution of randomness between the legitimate sender and receiver in the affirmative. The specific class of channels introduced in that example is then extended to show that the unassisted capacity does have discontinuity points, while it is known that the randomness-assisted capacity is always continuousmore » in the channel. We characterize the discontinuity points and prove that the unassisted capacity is always continuous around its positivity points. After having established shared randomness as an important resource, we quantify the interplay between the distribution of finite amounts of randomness between the legitimate sender and receiver, the (nonzero) probability of a decoding error with respect to the average error criterion and the number of messages that can be sent over a finite number of channel uses. We relate our results to the entanglement transmission capacities of finite AVQCs, where the role of shared randomness is not yet well understood, and give a new sufficient criterion for the entanglement transmission capacity with randomness assistance to vanish.« less

Attitudes toward clinical autopsy in unexpected patient deaths in Japan: a nation-wide survey of the general public and physicians.

PubMed

Kamishiraki, Etsuko; Maeda, Shoichi; Starkey, Jay; Ikeda, Noriaki

2012-12-01

Autopsy is a useful tool for understanding the cause and manner of unexpected patient death. However, the attitudes of the general public and physicians in Japan about clinical autopsy are limited. To describe the beliefs of the general public about whether autopsy should be performed and ascertain if they would actually request one given specific clinical situations where patient death occurred with the additional variable of medical error. To compare these attitudes with previously obtained attitudes of physicians practising at Japanese teaching hospitals. We conducted a cross-sectional study of the general public. We sent standardised questionnaires in 2010 to a randomly selected non-physician adult population using a survey company for participant selection. Respondents gave their opinions about the necessity of autopsy and how they might act given various clinical scenarios of patient death. We compared these results with those of a previous survey of Japanese physicians conducted in 2009. Of the 2300 eligible general adult population, 1575 (68.5%) responded. The majority of the general public indicated they believed an autopsy was necessary. However, in cases of unclear medical error or unclear cause and effect relationship of medical care and patient death, the general public were much less likely to indicate they would actually request an autopsy than were physicians (p<0.0001). Currently in Japan the debate about the role autopsy should play in the case of error related to death is underway. The results from this study will be important in informing related decisions.

Noise in two-color electronic distance meter measurements revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, J.

2004-01-01

Frequent, high-precision geodetic data have temporally correlated errors. Temporal correlations directly affect both the estimate of rate and its standard error; the rate of deformation is a key product from geodetic measurements made in tectonically active areas. Various models of temporally correlated errors are developed and these provide relations between the power spectral density and the data covariance matrix. These relations are applied to two-color electronic distance meter (EDM) measurements made frequently in California over the past 15-20 years. Previous analysis indicated that these data have significant random walk error. Analysis using the noise models developed here indicates that the random walk model is valid for about 30% of the data. A second 30% of the data can be better modeled with power law noise with a spectral index between 1 and 2, while another 30% of the data can be modeled with a combination of band-pass-filtered plus random walk noise. The remaining 10% of the data can be best modeled as a combination of band-pass-filtered plus power law noise. This band-pass-filtered noise is a product of an annual cycle that leaks into adjacent frequency bands. For time spans of more than 1 year these more complex noise models indicate that the precision in rate estimates is better than that inferred by just the simpler, random walk model of noise.

Helical tomotherapy setup variations in canine nasal tumor patients immobilized with a bite block.

PubMed

Kubicek, Lyndsay N; Seo, Songwon; Chappell, Richard J; Jeraj, Robert; Forrest, Lisa J

2012-01-01

The purpose of our study was to compare setup variation in four degrees of freedom (vertical, longitudinal, lateral, and roll) between canine nasal tumor patients immobilized with a mattress and bite block, versus a mattress alone. Our secondary aim was to define a clinical target volume (CTV) to planning target volume (PTV) expansion margin based on our mean systematic error values associated with nasal tumor patients immobilized by a mattress and bite block. We evaluated six parameters for setup corrections: systematic error, random error, patient-patient variation in systematic errors, the magnitude of patient-specific random errors (root mean square [RMS]), distance error, and the variation of setup corrections from zero shift. The variations in all parameters were statistically smaller in the group immobilized by a mattress and bite block. The mean setup corrections in the mattress and bite block group ranged from 0.91 mm to 1.59 mm for the translational errors and 0.5°. Although most veterinary radiation facilities do not have access to Image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT), we identified a need for more rigid fixation, established the value of adding IGRT to veterinary radiation therapy, and define the CTV-PTV setup error margin for canine nasal tumor patients immobilized in a mattress and bite block. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

Bit Error Probability for Maximum Likelihood Decoding of Linear Block Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc P. C.; Rhee, Dojun

1996-01-01

In this paper, the bit error probability P(sub b) for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes is investigated. The contribution of each information bit to P(sub b) is considered. For randomly generated codes, it is shown that the conventional approximation at high SNR P(sub b) is approximately equal to (d(sub H)/N)P(sub s), where P(sub s) represents the block error probability, holds for systematic encoding only. Also systematic encoding provides the minimum P(sub b) when the inverse mapping corresponding to the generator matrix of the code is used to retrieve the information sequence. The bit error performances corresponding to other generator matrix forms are also evaluated. Although derived for codes with a generator matrix randomly generated, these results are shown to provide good approximations for codes used in practice. Finally, for decoding methods which require a generator matrix with a particular structure such as trellis decoding or algebraic-based soft decision decoding, equivalent schemes that reduce the bit error probability are discussed.

Value stream mapping of the Pap test processing procedure: a lean approach to improve quality and efficiency.

PubMed

Michael, Claire W; Naik, Kalyani; McVicker, Michael

2013-05-01

We developed a value stream map (VSM) of the Papanicolaou test procedure to identify opportunities to reduce waste and errors, created a new VSM, and implemented a new process emphasizing Lean tools. Preimplementation data revealed the following: (1) processing time (PT) for 1,140 samples averaged 54 hours; (2) 27 accessioning errors were detected on review of 357 random requisitions (7.6%); (3) 5 of the 20,060 tests had labeling errors that had gone undetected in the processing stage. Four were detected later during specimen processing but 1 reached the reporting stage. Postimplementation data were as follows: (1) PT for 1,355 samples averaged 31 hours; (2) 17 accessioning errors were detected on review of 385 random requisitions (4.4%); and (3) no labeling errors were undetected. Our results demonstrate that implementation of Lean methods, such as first-in first-out processes and minimizing batch size by staff actively participating in the improvement process, allows for higher quality, greater patient safety, and improved efficiency.

Estimation of daily interfractional larynx residual setup error after isocentric alignment for head and neck radiotherapy: Quality-assurance implications for target volume and organ-at-risk margination using daily CT-on-rails imaging

PubMed Central

Baron, Charles A.; Awan, Musaddiq J.; Mohamed, Abdallah S. R.; Akel, Imad; Rosenthal, David I.; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Dyer, Brandon A.; Court, Laurence; Sevak, Parag R; Kocak-Uzel, Esengul; Fuller, Clifton D.

2016-01-01

Larynx may alternatively serve as a target or organ-at-risk (OAR) in head and neck cancer (HNC) image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). The objective of this study was to estimate IGRT parameters required for larynx positional error independent of isocentric alignment and suggest population–based compensatory margins. Ten HNC patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) with daily CT-on-rails imaging were assessed. Seven landmark points were placed on each daily scan. Taking the most superior anterior point of the C5 vertebra as a reference isocenter for each scan, residual displacement vectors to the other 6 points were calculated post-isocentric alignment. Subsequently, using the first scan as a reference, the magnitude of vector differences for all 6 points for all scans over the course of treatment were calculated. Residual systematic and random error, and the necessary compensatory CTV-to-PTV and OAR-to-PRV margins were calculated, using both observational cohort data and a bootstrap-resampled population estimator. The grand mean displacements for all anatomical points was 5.07mm, with mean systematic error of 1.1mm and mean random setup error of 2.63mm, while bootstrapped POIs grand mean displacement was 5.09mm, with mean systematic error of 1.23mm and mean random setup error of 2.61mm. Required margin for CTV-PTV expansion was 4.6mm for all cohort points, while the bootstrap estimator of the equivalent margin was 4.9mm. The calculated OAR-to-PRV expansion for the observed residual set-up error was 2.7mm, and bootstrap estimated expansion of 2.9mm. We conclude that the interfractional larynx setup error is a significant source of RT set-up/delivery error in HNC both when the larynx is considered as a CTV or OAR. We estimate the need for a uniform expansion of 5mm to compensate for set up error if the larynx is a target or 3mm if the larynx is an OAR when using a non-laryngeal bony isocenter. PMID:25679151

Estimation of daily interfractional larynx residual setup error after isocentric alignment for head and neck radiotherapy: quality assurance implications for target volume and organs‐at‐risk margination using daily CT on‐rails imaging

PubMed Central

Baron, Charles A.; Awan, Musaddiq J.; Mohamed, Abdallah S.R.; Akel, Imad; Rosenthal, David I.; Gunn, G. Brandon; Garden, Adam S.; Dyer, Brandon A.; Court, Laurence; Sevak, Parag R.; Kocak‐Uzel, Esengul

2014-01-01

Larynx may alternatively serve as a target or organs at risk (OAR) in head and neck cancer (HNC) image‐guided radiotherapy (IGRT). The objective of this study was to estimate IGRT parameters required for larynx positional error independent of isocentric alignment and suggest population‐based compensatory margins. Ten HNC patients receiving radiotherapy (RT) with daily CT on‐rails imaging were assessed. Seven landmark points were placed on each daily scan. Taking the most superior‐anterior point of the C5 vertebra as a reference isocenter for each scan, residual displacement vectors to the other six points were calculated postisocentric alignment. Subsequently, using the first scan as a reference, the magnitude of vector differences for all six points for all scans over the course of treatment was calculated. Residual systematic and random error and the necessary compensatory CTV‐to‐PTV and OAR‐to‐PRV margins were calculated, using both observational cohort data and a bootstrap‐resampled population estimator. The grand mean displacements for all anatomical points was 5.07 mm, with mean systematic error of 1.1 mm and mean random setup error of 2.63 mm, while bootstrapped POIs grand mean displacement was 5.09 mm, with mean systematic error of 1.23 mm and mean random setup error of 2.61 mm. Required margin for CTV‐PTV expansion was 4.6 mm for all cohort points, while the bootstrap estimator of the equivalent margin was 4.9 mm. The calculated OAR‐to‐PRV expansion for the observed residual setup error was 2.7 mm and bootstrap estimated expansion of 2.9 mm. We conclude that the interfractional larynx setup error is a significant source of RT setup/delivery error in HNC, both when the larynx is considered as a CTV or OAR. We estimate the need for a uniform expansion of 5 mm to compensate for setup error if the larynx is a target, or 3 mm if the larynx is an OAR, when using a nonlaryngeal bony isocenter. PACS numbers: 87.55.D‐, 87.55.Qr

Analysis of space telescope data collection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Schoggen, W. O.

1982-01-01

An analysis of the expected performance for the Multiple Access (MA) system is provided. The analysis covers the expected bit error rate performance, the effects of synchronization loss, the problem of self-interference, and the problem of phase ambiguity. The problem of false acceptance of a command word due to data inversion is discussed. A mathematical determination of the probability of accepting an erroneous command word due to a data inversion is presented. The problem is examined for three cases: (1) a data inversion only, (2) a data inversion and a random error within the same command word, and a block (up to 256 48-bit words) containing both a data inversion and a random error.

Modeling methodology for MLS range navigation system errors using flight test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karmali, M. S.; Phatak, A. V.

1982-01-01

Flight test data was used to develop a methodology for modeling MLS range navigation system errors. The data used corresponded to the constant velocity and glideslope approach segment of a helicopter landing trajectory. The MLS range measurement was assumed to consist of low frequency and random high frequency components. The random high frequency component was extracted from the MLS range measurements. This was done by appropriate filtering of the range residual generated from a linearization of the range profile for the final approach segment. This range navigation system error was then modeled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. Maximum likelihood techniques were used to identify the parameters of the ARMA process.

High Prevalence of Refractive Errors in 7 Year Old Children in Iran

PubMed Central

HASHEMI, Hassan; YEKTA, Abbasali; JAFARZADEHPUR, Ebrahim; OSTADIMOGHADDAM, Hadi; ETEMAD, Koorosh; ASHARLOUS, Amir; NABOVATI, Payam; KHABAZKHOOB, Mehdi

2016-01-01

Background: The latest WHO report indicates that refractive errors are the leading cause of visual impairment throughout the world. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of myopia, hyperopia, and astigmatism in 7 yr old children in Iran. Methods: In a cross-sectional study in 2013 with multistage cluster sampling, first graders were randomly selected from 8 cities in Iran. All children were tested by an optometrist for uncorrected and corrected vision, and non-cycloplegic and cycloplegic refraction. Refractive errors in this study were determined based on spherical equivalent (SE) cyloplegic refraction. Results: From 4614 selected children, 89.0% participated in the study, and 4072 were eligible. The prevalence rates of myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism were 3.04% (95% CI: 2.30–3.78), 6.20% (95% CI: 5.27–7.14), and 17.43% (95% CI: 15.39–19.46), respectively. Prevalence of myopia (P=0.925) and astigmatism (P=0.056) were not statistically significantly different between the two genders, but the odds of hyperopia were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01–2.05) times higher in girls (P=0.011). The prevalence of with-the-rule astigmatism was 12.59%, against-the-rule was 2.07%, and oblique 2.65%. Overall, 22.8% (95% CI: 19.7–24.9) of the schoolchildren in this study had at least one type of refractive error. Conclusion: One out of every 5 schoolchildren had some refractive error. Conducting multicenter studies throughout the Middle East can be very helpful in understanding the current distribution patterns and etiology of refractive errors compared to the previous decade. PMID:27114984

Refractive error in school children in an urban and rural setting in Cambodia.

PubMed

Gao, Zoe; Meng, Ngy; Muecke, James; Chan, Weng Onn; Piseth, Horm; Kong, Aimee; Jnguyenphamhh, Theresa; Dehghan, Yalda; Selva, Dinesh; Casson, Robert; Ang, Kim

2012-02-01

To assess the prevalence of refractive error in schoolchildren aged 12-14 years in urban and rural settings in Cambodia's Phnom Penh and Kandal provinces. Ten schools from Phnom Penh Province and 26 schools from Kandal Province were randomly selected and surveyed in October 2010. Children were examined by teams of Australian and Cambodian optometrists, ophthalmic nurses and ophthalmologists who performed visual acuity (VA) testing and cycloplegic refraction. A total of 5527 children were included in the study. The prevalence of uncorrected, presenting and best-corrected VA ≤ 6/12 in the better eye were 2.48% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.02-2.83%), 1.90% (95% CI 1.52-2.24%) and 0.36% (95% CI 0.20-0.52%), respectively; 43 children presented with glasses whilst a total of 315 glasses were dispensed. The total prevalence of refractive error was 6.57% (95% CI 5.91-7.22%), but there was a significant difference between urban (13.7%, 95% CI 12.2-15.2%) and rural (2.5%, 95% CI 2.03-3.07%) schools (P < 0.0001). Refractive error accounted for 91.2% of visually impaired eyes, cataract for 1.7%, and other causes for 7.1%. Myopia (spherical equivalent ≤ -0.50 diopters [D] in either eye) was associated with increased age, female gender and urban schooling. The prevalence of refractive error was significantly higher in urban Phnom Penh schools than rural schools in Kandal Province. The prevalence of refractive error, particularly myopia was relatively low compared to previous reports in Asia. The majority of children did not have appropriate correction with spectacles, highlighting the need for more effective screening and optical intervention.

Effects of skilled nursing facility structure and process factors on medication errors during nursing home admission.

PubMed

Lane, Sandi J; Troyer, Jennifer L; Dienemann, Jacqueline A; Laditka, Sarah B; Blanchette, Christopher M

2014-01-01

Older adults are at greatest risk of medication errors during the transition period of the first 7 days after admission and readmission to a skilled nursing facility (SNF). The aim of this study was to evaluate structure- and process-related factors that contribute to medication errors and harm during transition periods at a SNF. Data for medication errors and potential medication errors during the 7-day transition period for residents entering North Carolina SNFs were from the Medication Error Quality Initiative-Individual Error database from October 2006 to September 2007. The impact of SNF structure and process measures on the number of reported medication errors and harm from errors were examined using bivariate and multivariate model methods. A total of 138 SNFs reported 581 transition period medication errors; 73 (12.6%) caused harm. Chain affiliation was associated with a reduction in the volume of errors during the transition period. One third of all reported transition errors occurred during the medication administration phase of the medication use process, where dose omissions were the most common type of error; however, dose omissions caused harm less often than wrong-dose errors did. Prescribing errors were much less common than administration errors but were much more likely to cause harm. Both structure and process measures of quality were related to the volume of medication errors.However, process quality measures may play a more important role in predicting harm from errors during the transition of a resident into an SNF. Medication errors during transition could be reduced by improving both prescribing processes and transcription and documentation of orders.

The statistical pitfalls of the partially randomized preference design in non-blinded trials of psychological interventions.

PubMed

Gemmell, Isla; Dunn, Graham

2011-03-01

In a partially randomized preference trial (PRPT) patients with no treatment preference are allocated to groups at random, but those who express a preference receive the treatment of their choice. It has been suggested that the design can improve the external and internal validity of trials. We used computer simulation to illustrate the impact that an unmeasured confounder could have on the results and conclusions drawn from a PRPT. We generated 4000 observations ("patients") that reflected the distribution of the Beck Depression Index (DBI) in trials of depression. Half were randomly assigned to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design and half were assigned to a PRPT design. In the RCT, "patients" were evenly split between treatment and control groups; whereas in the preference arm, to reflect patient choice, 87.5% of patients were allocated to the experimental treatment and 12.5% to the control. Unadjusted analyses of the PRPT data consistently overestimated the treatment effect and its standard error. This lead to Type I errors when the true treatment effect was small and Type II errors when the confounder effect was large. The PRPT design is not recommended as a method of establishing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An improved procedure for the validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Ling; Tian, Yudong; Yan, Fang; Habib, Emad

2015-09-01

The objective of this study is to propose and test a new procedure to improve the validation of remote-sensing, high-resolution precipitation estimates. Our recent studies show that many conventional validation measures do not accurately capture the unique error characteristics in precipitation estimates to better inform both data producers and users. The proposed new validation procedure has two steps: 1) an error decomposition approach to separate the total retrieval error into three independent components: hit error, false precipitation and missed precipitation; and 2) the hit error is further analyzed based on a multiplicative error model. In the multiplicative error model, the error features are captured by three model parameters. In this way, the multiplicative error model separates systematic and random errors, leading to more accurate quantification of the uncertainties. The proposed procedure is used to quantitatively evaluate the recent two versions (Version 6 and 7) of TRMM's Multi-sensor Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real-time and research product suite (3B42 and 3B42RT) for seven years (2005-2011) over the continental United States (CONUS). The gauge-based National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) near-real-time daily precipitation analysis is used as the reference. In addition, the radar-based NCEP Stage IV precipitation data are also model-fitted to verify the effectiveness of the multiplicative error model. The results show that winter total bias is dominated by the missed precipitation over the west coastal areas and the Rocky Mountains, and the false precipitation over large areas in Midwest. The summer total bias is largely coming from the hit bias in Central US. Meanwhile, the new version (V7) tends to produce more rainfall in the higher rain rates, which moderates the significant underestimation exhibited in the previous V6 products. Moreover, the error analysis from the multiplicative error model provides a clear and concise picture of the systematic and random errors, with both versions of 3B42RT have higher errors in varying degrees than their research (post-real-time) counterparts. The new V7 algorithm shows obvious improvements in reducing random errors in both winter and summer seasons, compared to its predecessors V6. Stage IV, as expected, surpasses the satellite-based datasets in all the metrics over CONUS. Based on the results, we recommend the new procedure be adopted for routine validation of satellite-based precipitation datasets, and we expect the procedure will work effectively for higher resolution data to be produced in the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) era.

Making electronic prescribing alerts more effective: scenario-based experimental study in junior doctors

PubMed Central

Shah, Priya; Wyatt, Jeremy C; Makubate, Boikanyo; Cross, Frank W

2011-01-01

Objective Expert authorities recommend clinical decision support systems to reduce prescribing error rates, yet large numbers of insignificant on-screen alerts presented in modal dialog boxes persistently interrupt clinicians, limiting the effectiveness of these systems. This study compared the impact of modal and non-modal electronic (e-) prescribing alerts on prescribing error rates, to help inform the design of clinical decision support systems. Design A randomized study of 24 junior doctors each performing 30 simulated prescribing tasks in random order with a prototype e-prescribing system. Using a within-participant design, doctors were randomized to be shown one of three types of e-prescribing alert (modal, non-modal, no alert) during each prescribing task. Measurements The main outcome measure was prescribing error rate. Structured interviews were performed to elicit participants' preferences for the prescribing alerts and their views on clinical decision support systems. Results Participants exposed to modal alerts were 11.6 times less likely to make a prescribing error than those not shown an alert (OR 11.56, 95% CI 6.00 to 22.26). Those shown a non-modal alert were 3.2 times less likely to make a prescribing error (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.91 to 5.30) than those not shown an alert. The error rate with non-modal alerts was 3.6 times higher than with modal alerts (95% CI 1.88 to 7.04). Conclusions Both kinds of e-prescribing alerts significantly reduced prescribing error rates, but modal alerts were over three times more effective than non-modal alerts. This study provides new evidence about the relative effects of modal and non-modal alerts on prescribing outcomes. PMID:21836158

Statistics of the epoch of reionization 21-cm signal - I. Power spectrum error-covariance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, Rajesh; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Majumdar, Suman

2016-02-01

The non-Gaussian nature of the epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal has a significant impact on the error variance of its power spectrum P(k). We have used a large ensemble of seminumerical simulations and an analytical model to estimate the effect of this non-Gaussianity on the entire error-covariance matrix {C}ij. Our analytical model shows that {C}ij has contributions from two sources. One is the usual variance for a Gaussian random field which scales inversely of the number of modes that goes into the estimation of P(k). The other is the trispectrum of the signal. Using the simulated 21-cm Signal Ensemble, an ensemble of the Randomized Signal and Ensembles of Gaussian Random Ensembles we have quantified the effect of the trispectrum on the error variance {C}II. We find that its relative contribution is comparable to or larger than that of the Gaussian term for the k range 0.3 ≤ k ≤ 1.0 Mpc-1, and can be even ˜200 times larger at k ˜ 5 Mpc-1. We also establish that the off-diagonal terms of {C}ij have statistically significant non-zero values which arise purely from the trispectrum. This further signifies that the error in different k modes are not independent. We find a strong correlation between the errors at large k values (≥0.5 Mpc-1), and a weak correlation between the smallest and largest k values. There is also a small anticorrelation between the errors in the smallest and intermediate k values. These results are relevant for the k range that will be probed by the current and upcoming EoR 21-cm experiments.

Evaluation and optimization of sampling errors for the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räisänen, Petri; Barker, W. Howard

2004-07-01

The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) method for computing domain-average broadband radiative fluxes is unbiased with respect to the full ICA, but its flux estimates contain conditional random noise. McICA's sampling errors are evaluated here using a global climate model (GCM) dataset and a correlated-k distribution (CKD) radiation scheme. Two approaches to reduce McICA's sampling variance are discussed. The first is to simply restrict all of McICA's samples to cloudy regions. This avoids wasting precious few samples on essentially homogeneous clear skies. Clear-sky fluxes need to be computed separately for this approach, but this is usually done in GCMs for diagnostic purposes anyway. Second, accuracy can be improved by repeated sampling, and averaging those CKD terms with large cloud radiative effects. Although this naturally increases computational costs over the standard CKD model, random errors for fluxes and heating rates are reduced by typically 50% to 60%, for the present radiation code, when the total number of samples is increased by 50%. When both variance reduction techniques are applied simultaneously, globally averaged flux and heating rate random errors are reduced by a factor of #3.

Narrowband (LPC-10) Vocoder Performance under Combined Effects of Random Bit Errors and Jet Aircraft Cabin Noise.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-12-01

rAD-141 333 NRRROWRAND (LPC-iB) VOCODER PERFORMANCE UNDER COMBINED i/ EFFECTS OF RRNDOM.(U) ROME AIR DEVELOPMENT CENTER GRIFFISS RFB NY C P SMITH DEC...LPC-10) VOCODER In House. PERFORMANCE UNDER COMBINED EFFECTS June 82 - Sept. 83 OF RANDOM BIT ERRORS AND JET AIRCRAFT Z PERFORMING ORG REPO- NUMSEF...PAGE(Wh.n Does Eneerd) 20. (contd) Compartment, and NCA Compartment were alike in their effects on overall vocoder performance . Composite performance

Reducing Modeling Error of Graphical Methods for Estimating Volume of Distribution Measurements in PIB-PET study

PubMed Central

Guo, Hongbin; Renaut, Rosemary A; Chen, Kewei; Reiman, Eric M

2010-01-01

Graphical analysis methods are widely used in positron emission tomography quantification because of their simplicity and model independence. But they may, particularly for reversible kinetics, lead to bias in the estimated parameters. The source of the bias is commonly attributed to noise in the data. Assuming a two-tissue compartmental model, we investigate the bias that originates from modeling error. This bias is an intrinsic property of the simplified linear models used for limited scan durations, and it is exaggerated by random noise and numerical quadrature error. Conditions are derived under which Logan's graphical method either over- or under-estimates the distribution volume in the noise-free case. The bias caused by modeling error is quantified analytically. The presented analysis shows that the bias of graphical methods is inversely proportional to the dissociation rate. Furthermore, visual examination of the linearity of the Logan plot is not sufficient for guaranteeing that equilibrium has been reached. A new model which retains the elegant properties of graphical analysis methods is presented, along with a numerical algorithm for its solution. We perform simulations with the fibrillar amyloid β radioligand [11C] benzothiazole-aniline using published data from the University of Pittsburgh and Rotterdam groups. The results show that the proposed method significantly reduces the bias due to modeling error. Moreover, the results for data acquired over a 70 minutes scan duration are at least as good as those obtained using existing methods for data acquired over a 90 minutes scan duration. PMID:20493196

Forecasting space weather over short horizons: Revised and updated estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reikard, Gordon

2018-07-01

Space weather reflects multiple causes. There is a clear influence for the sun on the near-earth environment. Solar activity shows evidence of chaotic properties, implying that prediction may be limited beyond short horizons. At the same time, geomagnetic activity also reflects the rotation of the earth's core, and local currents in the ionosphere. The combination of influences means that geomagnetic indexes behave like multifractals, exhibiting nonlinear variability, with intermittent outliers. This study tests a range of models: regressions, neural networks, and a frequency domain algorithm. Forecasting tests are run for sunspots and irradiance from 1820 onward, for the Aa geomagnetic index from 1868 onward, and the Am index from 1959 onward, over horizons of 1-7 days. For irradiance and sunspots, persistence actually does better over short horizons. None of the other models really dominate. For the geomagnetic indexes, the persistence method does badly, while the neural net also shows large errors. The remaining models all achieve about the same level of accuracy. The errors are in the range of 48% at 1 day, and 54% at all later horizons. Additional tests are run over horizons of 1-4 weeks. At 1 week, the best models reduce the error to about 35%. Over horizons of four weeks, the model errors increase. The findings are somewhat pessimistic. Over short horizons, geomagnetic activity exhibits so much random variation that the forecast errors are extremely high. Over slightly longer horizons, there is some improvement from estimating in the frequency domain, but not a great deal. Including solar activity in the models does not yield any improvement in accuracy.

Errors Analysis of Students in Mathematics Department to Learn Plane Geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirna, M.

2018-04-01

This article describes the results of qualitative descriptive research that reveal the locations, types and causes of student error in answering the problem of plane geometry at the problem-solving level. Answers from 59 students on three test items informed that students showed errors ranging from understanding the concepts and principles of geometry itself to the error in applying it to problem solving. Their type of error consists of concept errors, principle errors and operational errors. The results of reflection with four subjects reveal the causes of the error are: 1) student learning motivation is very low, 2) in high school learning experience, geometry has been seen as unimportant, 3) the students' experience using their reasoning in solving the problem is very less, and 4) students' reasoning ability is still very low.

Insight into organic reactions from the direct random phase approximation and its corrections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruzsinszky, Adrienn; Zhang, Igor Ying; Scheffler, Matthias

2015-10-14

The performance of the random phase approximation (RPA) and beyond-RPA approximations for the treatment of electron correlation is benchmarked on three different molecular test sets. The test sets are chosen to represent three typical sources of error which can contribute to the failure of most density functional approximations in chemical reactions. The first test set (atomization and n-homodesmotic reactions) offers a gradually increasing balance of error from the chemical environment. The second test set (Diels-Alder reaction cycloaddition = DARC) reflects more the effect of weak dispersion interactions in chemical reactions. Finally, the third test set (self-interaction error 11 = SIE11)more » represents reactions which are exposed to noticeable self-interaction errors. This work seeks to answer whether any one of the many-body approximations considered here successfully addresses all these challenges.« less

Quantifying Adventitious Error in a Covariance Structure as a Random Effect

PubMed Central

Wu, Hao; Browne, Michael W.

2017-01-01

We present an approach to quantifying errors in covariance structures in which adventitious error, identified as the process underlying the discrepancy between the population and the structured model, is explicitly modeled as a random effect with a distribution, and the dispersion parameter of this distribution to be estimated gives a measure of misspecification. Analytical properties of the resultant procedure are investigated and the measure of misspecification is found to be related to the RMSEA. An algorithm is developed for numerical implementation of the procedure. The consistency and asymptotic sampling distributions of the estimators are established under a new asymptotic paradigm and an assumption weaker than the standard Pitman drift assumption. Simulations validate the asymptotic sampling distributions and demonstrate the importance of accounting for the variations in the parameter estimates due to adventitious error. Two examples are also given as illustrations. PMID:25813463

Nano-metrology: The art of measuring X-ray mirrors with slope errors <100 nrad

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alcock, Simon G., E-mail: simon.alcock@diamond.ac.uk; Nistea, Ioana; Sawhney, Kawal

2016-05-15

We present a comprehensive investigation of the systematic and random errors of the nano-metrology instruments used to characterize synchrotron X-ray optics at Diamond Light Source. With experimental skill and careful analysis, we show that these instruments used in combination are capable of measuring state-of-the-art X-ray mirrors. Examples are provided of how Diamond metrology data have helped to achieve slope errors of <100 nrad for optical systems installed on synchrotron beamlines, including: iterative correction of substrates using ion beam figuring and optimal clamping of monochromator grating blanks in their holders. Simulations demonstrate how random noise from the Diamond-NOM’s autocollimator adds intomore » the overall measured value of the mirror’s slope error, and thus predict how many averaged scans are required to accurately characterize different grades of mirror.« less

Random Weighting, Strong Tracking, and Unscented Kalman Filter for Soft Tissue Characterization.

PubMed

Shin, Jaehyun; Zhong, Yongmin; Oetomo, Denny; Gu, Chengfan

2018-05-21

This paper presents a new nonlinear filtering method based on the Hunt-Crossley model for online nonlinear soft tissue characterization. This method overcomes the problem of performance degradation in the unscented Kalman filter due to contact model error. It adopts the concept of Mahalanobis distance to identify contact model error, and further incorporates a scaling factor in predicted state covariance to compensate identified model error. This scaling factor is determined according to the principle of innovation orthogonality to avoid the cumbersome computation of Jacobian matrix, where the random weighting concept is adopted to improve the estimation accuracy of innovation covariance. A master-slave robotic indentation system is developed to validate the performance of the proposed method. Simulation and experimental results as well as comparison analyses demonstrate that the efficacy of the proposed method for online characterization of soft tissue parameters in the presence of contact model error.

The Gnomon Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krisciunas, Kevin

2007-12-01

A gnomon, or vertical pointed stick, can be used to determine the north-south direction at a site, as well as one's latitude. If one has accurate time and knows one's time zone, it is also possible to determine one's longitude. From observations on the first day of winter and the first day of summer one can determine the obliquity of the ecliptic. Since we can obtain accurate geographical coordinates from Google Earth or a GPS device, analysis of set of shadow length measurements can be used by students to learn about astronomical coordinate systems, time systems, systematic errors, and random errors. Systematic latitude errors of student datasets are typically 30 nautical miles (0.5 degree) or more, but with care one can achieve systematic and random errors less than 8 nautical miles. One of the advantages of this experiment is that it can be carried out during the day. Also, it is possible to determine if a student has made up his data.

Biometrics encryption combining palmprint with two-layer error correction codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hengjian; Qiu, Jian; Dong, Jiwen; Feng, Guang

2017-07-01

To bridge the gap between the fuzziness of biometrics and the exactitude of cryptography, based on combining palmprint with two-layer error correction codes, a novel biometrics encryption method is proposed. Firstly, the randomly generated original keys are encoded by convolutional and cyclic two-layer coding. The first layer uses a convolution code to correct burst errors. The second layer uses cyclic code to correct random errors. Then, the palmprint features are extracted from the palmprint images. Next, they are fused together by XORing operation. The information is stored in a smart card. Finally, the original keys extraction process is the information in the smart card XOR the user's palmprint features and then decoded with convolutional and cyclic two-layer code. The experimental results and security analysis show that it can recover the original keys completely. The proposed method is more secure than a single password factor, and has higher accuracy than a single biometric factor.

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

Hybrid computer technique yields random signal probability distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cameron, W. D.

1965-01-01

Hybrid computer determines the probability distributions of instantaneous and peak amplitudes of random signals. This combined digital and analog computer system reduces the errors and delays of manual data analysis.

The causes of and factors associated with prescribing errors in hospital inpatients: a systematic review.

PubMed

Tully, Mary P; Ashcroft, Darren M; Dornan, Tim; Lewis, Penny J; Taylor, David; Wass, Val

2009-01-01

Prescribing errors are common, they result in adverse events and harm to patients and it is unclear how best to prevent them because recommendations are more often based on surmized rather than empirically collected data. The aim of this systematic review was to identify all informative published evidence concerning the causes of and factors associated with prescribing errors in specialist and non-specialist hospitals, collate it, analyse it qualitatively and synthesize conclusions from it. Seven electronic databases were searched for articles published between 1985-July 2008. The reference lists of all informative studies were searched for additional citations. To be included, a study had to be of handwritten prescriptions for adult or child inpatients that reported empirically collected data on the causes of or factors associated with errors. Publications in languages other than English and studies that evaluated errors for only one disease, one route of administration or one type of prescribing error were excluded. Seventeen papers reporting 16 studies, selected from 1268 papers identified by the search, were included in the review. Studies from the US and the UK in university-affiliated hospitals predominated (10/16 [62%]). The definition of a prescribing error varied widely and the included studies were highly heterogeneous. Causes were grouped according to Reason's model of accident causation into active failures, error-provoking conditions and latent conditions. The active failure most frequently cited was a mistake due to inadequate knowledge of the drug or the patient. Skills-based slips and memory lapses were also common. Where error-provoking conditions were reported, there was at least one per error. These included lack of training or experience, fatigue, stress, high workload for the prescriber and inadequate communication between healthcare professionals. Latent conditions included reluctance to question senior colleagues and inadequate provision of training. Prescribing errors are often multifactorial, with several active failures and error-provoking conditions often acting together to cause them. In the face of such complexity, solutions addressing a single cause, such as lack of knowledge, are likely to have only limited benefit. Further rigorous study, seeking potential ways of reducing error, needs to be conducted. Multifactorial interventions across many parts of the system are likely to be required.

[Efficacy of motivational interviewing for reducing medication errors in chronic patients over 65 years with polypharmacy: Results of a cluster randomized trial].

PubMed

Pérula de Torres, Luis Angel; Pulido Ortega, Laura; Pérula de Torres, Carlos; González Lama, Jesús; Olaya Caro, Inmaculada; Ruiz Moral, Roger

2014-10-21

To evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention based on motivational interviewing to reduce medication errors in chronic patients over 65 with polypharmacy. Cluster randomized trial that included doctors and nurses of 16 Primary Care centers and chronic patients with polypharmacy over 65 years. The professionals were assigned to the experimental or the control group using stratified randomization. Interventions consisted of training of professionals and revision of patient treatments, application of motivational interviewing in the experimental group and also the usual approach in the control group. The primary endpoint (medication error) was analyzed at individual level, and was estimated with the absolute risk reduction (ARR), relative risk reduction (RRR), number of subjects to treat (NNT) and by multiple logistic regression analysis. Thirty-two professionals were randomized (19 doctors and 13 nurses), 27 of them recruited 154 patients consecutively (13 professionals in the experimental group recruited 70 patients and 14 professionals recruited 84 patients in the control group) and completed 6 months of follow-up. The mean age of patients was 76 years (68.8% women). A decrease in the average of medication errors was observed along the period. The reduction was greater in the experimental than in the control group (F=5.109, P=.035). RRA 29% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 15.0-43.0%), RRR 0.59 (95% CI:0.31-0.76), and NNT 3.5 (95% CI 2.3-6.8). Motivational interviewing is more efficient than the usual approach to reduce medication errors in patients over 65 with polypharmacy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

Lies, Damned Lies, and Survey Self-Reports? Identity as a Cause of Measurement Bias

PubMed Central

Brenner, Philip S.; DeLamater, John

2017-01-01

Explanations of error in survey self-reports have focused on social desirability: that respondents answer questions about normative behavior to appear prosocial to interviewers. However, this paradigm fails to explain why bias occurs even in self-administered modes like mail and web surveys. We offer an alternative explanation rooted in identity theory that focuses on measurement directiveness as a cause of bias. After completing questions about physical exercise on a web survey, respondents completed a text message–based reporting procedure, sending updates on their major activities for five days. Random assignment was then made to one of two conditions: instructions mentioned the focus of the study, physical exercise, or not. Survey responses, text updates, and records from recreation facilities were compared. Direct measures generated bias—overreporting in survey measures and reactivity in the directive text condition—but the nondirective text condition generated unbiased measures. Findings are discussed in terms of identity. PMID:29038609

[Comparative quality measurements part 3: funnel plots].

PubMed

Kottner, Jan; Lahmann, Nils

2014-02-01

Comparative quality measurements between organisations or institutions are common. Quality measures need to be standardised and risk adjusted. Random error must also be taken adequately into account. Rankings without consideration of the precision lead to flawed interpretations and enhances "gaming". Application of confidence intervals is one possibility to take chance variation into account. Funnel plots are modified control charts based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory. The quality measures are plotted against their sample size. Warning and control limits that are 2 or 3 standard deviations from the center line are added. With increasing group size the precision increases and so the control limits are forming a funnel. Data points within the control limits are considered to show common cause variation; data points outside special cause variation without the focus of spurious rankings. Funnel plots offer data based information about how to evaluate institutional performance within quality management contexts.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Survey Self-Reports? Identity as a Cause of Measurement Bias.

PubMed

Brenner, Philip S; DeLamater, John

2016-12-01

Explanations of error in survey self-reports have focused on social desirability: that respondents answer questions about normative behavior to appear prosocial to interviewers. However, this paradigm fails to explain why bias occurs even in self-administered modes like mail and web surveys. We offer an alternative explanation rooted in identity theory that focuses on measurement directiveness as a cause of bias. After completing questions about physical exercise on a web survey, respondents completed a text message-based reporting procedure, sending updates on their major activities for five days. Random assignment was then made to one of two conditions: instructions mentioned the focus of the study, physical exercise, or not. Survey responses, text updates, and records from recreation facilities were compared. Direct measures generated bias-overreporting in survey measures and reactivity in the directive text condition-but the nondirective text condition generated unbiased measures. Findings are discussed in terms of identity.

Do calculation errors by nurses cause medication errors in clinical practice? A literature review.

PubMed

Wright, Kerri

2010-01-01

This review aims to examine the literature available to ascertain whether medication errors in clinical practice are the result of nurses' miscalculating drug dosages. The research studies highlighting poor calculation skills of nurses and student nurses have been tested using written drug calculation tests in formal classroom settings [Kapborg, I., 1994. Calculation and administration of drug dosage by Swedish nurses, student nurses and physicians. International Journal for Quality in Health Care 6(4): 389 -395; Hutton, M., 1998. Nursing Mathematics: the importance of application Nursing Standard 13(11): 35-38; Weeks, K., Lynne, P., Torrance, C., 2000. Written drug dosage errors made by students: the threat to clinical effectiveness and the need for a new approach. Clinical Effectiveness in Nursing 4, 20-29]; Wright, K., 2004. Investigation to find strategies to improve student nurses' maths skills. British Journal Nursing 13(21) 1280-1287; Wright, K., 2005. An exploration into the most effective way to teach drug calculation skills to nursing students. Nurse Education Today 25, 430-436], but there have been no reviews of the literature on medication errors in practice that specifically look to see whether the medication errors are caused by nurses' poor calculation skills. The databases Medline, CINAHL, British Nursing Index (BNI), Journal of American Medical Association (JAMA) and Archives and Cochrane reviews were searched for research studies or systematic reviews which reported on the incidence or causes of drug errors in clinical practice. In total 33 articles met the criteria for this review. There were no studies that examined nurses' drug calculation errors in practice. As a result studies and systematic reviews that investigated the types and causes of drug errors were examined to establish whether miscalculations by nurses were the causes of errors. The review found insufficient evidence to suggest that medication errors are caused by nurses' poor calculation skills. Of the 33 studies reviewed only five articles specifically recorded information relating to calculation errors and only two of these detected errors using the direct observational approach. The literature suggests that there are other more pressing aspects of nurses' preparation and administration of medications which are contributing to medication errors in practice that require more urgent attention and calls into question the current focus on calculation and numeracy skills of pre registration and qualified nurses (NMC 2008). However, more research is required into the calculation errors in practice. In particular there is a need for a direct observational study on paediatric nurses as there are presently none examining this area of practice.

[Comparative volumetry of human testes using special types of testicular sonography, Prader's orchidometer, Schirren's circle and sliding caliber].

PubMed

Dörnberger, V; Dörnberger, G

1987-01-01

On 99 testes of corpses (death had occurred between 26 und 86 years) comparative volumetry was done. In the left surrounding capsules (without scrotal skin and tunica dartos) the testes were measured via real time sonography in a waterbath (7.5 MHz linear-scan), afterwards length, breadth and height were measured by a sliding calibre, the largest diameter (the length) of the testis was determined by Schirren's circle and finally the size of the testis was measured via Prader's orchidometer. After all the testes were surgically exposed, their volume (by litres) was determined according to Archimedes' principle. As for the Archimedes' principle a random mean error of 7% must be accepted, sonographic determination of the volume showed a random mean error of 15%. Whereas the accuracy of measurement increases with increasing volumes, both methods should be used with caution if the volumes are below 4 ml, since the possibilities of error are rather great. According to Prader's orchidometer the measured volumes on average were higher (+ 27%) with a random mean error of 19.5%. With Schirren's circle the obtained mean value was even higher (+ 52%) in comparison to the "real" volume by Archimedes' principle with a random mean error of 19%. The measurements of the testes in the left capsules by sliding calibre can be optimized, if one applies a correcting factor f (sliding calibre) = 0.39 for calculation of the testis volume corresponding to an ellipsoid. Here you will get the same mean value as in Archimedes' principle with a standard mean error of only 9%. If one applies the correction factor of real time sonography of testis f (sono) = 0.65 the mean value of sliding calibre measurements would be 68.8% too high with a standard mean error of 20.3%. For measurements via sliding calibre the calculation of the testis volume corresponding to an ellipsoid one should apply the smaller factor f (sliding calibre) = 0.39, because in this way the left capsules of testis and the epididymis are considered.

Setup deviations for whole-breast radiotherapy with TomoDirect: A comparison of weekly and biweekly image-guided protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jae Hong; Jung, Joo-Young; Bae, Sun Hyun; Moon, Seong Kwon; Cho, Kwang Hwan

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare patient setup deviations for different image-guided protocols (weekly vs. biweekly) that are used in TomoDirect three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (TD-3DCRT) for whole-breast radiation therapy (WBRT). A total of 138 defined megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) image sets from 46 breast cancer cases were divided into two groups based on the imaging acquisition times: weekly or biweekly. The mean error, three-dimensional setup displacement error (3D-error), systematic error (Σ), and random error (σ) were calculated for each group. The 3D-errors were 4.29 ± 1.11 mm and 5.02 ± 1.85 mm for the weekly and biweekly groups, respectively; the biweekly error was 14.6% higher than the weekly error. The systematic errors in the roll angle and the x, y, and z directions were 0.48°, 1.72 mm, 2.18 mm, and 1.85 mm for the weekly protocol and 0.21°, 1.24 mm, 1.39 mm, and 1.85 mm for the biweekly protocol. Random errors in the roll angle and the x, y, and z directions were 25.7%, 40.6%, 40.0%, and 40.8% higher in the biweekly group than in the weekly group. For the x, y, and z directions, the distributions of the treatment frequency at less than 5 mm were 98.6%, 91.3%, and 94.2% in the weekly group and 94.2%, 89.9%, and 82.6% in the biweekly group. Moreover, the roll angles with 0 - 1° were 79.7% and 89.9% in the weekly and the biweekly groups, respectively. Overall, the evaluation of setup deviations for the two protocols revealed no significant differences (p > 0.05). Reducing the frequency of MVCT imaging could have promising effects on imaging doses and machine times during treatment. However, the biweekly protocol was associated with increased random setup deviations in the treatment. We have demonstrated a biweekly protocol of TD-3DCRT for WBRT, and we anticipate that our method may provide an alternative approach for considering the uncertainties in the patient setup.

Documentation of study medication dispensing in a prospective large randomized clinical trial: experiences from the ARISTOTLE Trial.

PubMed

Alexander, John H; Levy, Elliott; Lawrence, Jack; Hanna, Michael; Waclawski, Anthony P; Wang, Junyuan; Califf, Robert M; Wallentin, Lars; Granger, Christopher B

2013-09-01

In ARISTOTLE, apixaban resulted in a 21% reduction in stroke, a 31% reduction in major bleeding, and an 11% reduction in death. However, approval of apixaban was delayed to investigate a statement in the clinical study report that "7.3% of subjects in the apixaban group and 1.2% of subjects in the warfarin group received, at some point during the study, a container of the wrong type." Rates of study medication dispensing error were characterized through reviews of study medication container tear-off labels in 6,520 participants from randomly selected study sites. The potential effect of dispensing errors on study outcomes was statistically simulated in sensitivity analyses in the overall population. The rate of medication dispensing error resulting in treatment error was 0.04%. Rates of participants receiving at least 1 incorrect container were 1.04% (34/3,273) in the apixaban group and 0.77% (25/3,247) in the warfarin group. Most of the originally reported errors were data entry errors in which the correct medication container was dispensed but the wrong container number was entered into the case report form. Sensitivity simulations in the overall trial population showed no meaningful effect of medication dispensing error on the main efficacy and safety outcomes. Rates of medication dispensing error were low and balanced between treatment groups. The initially reported dispensing error rate was the result of data recording and data management errors and not true medication dispensing errors. These analyses confirm the previously reported results of ARISTOTLE. © 2013.

Equivalent Linearization Analysis of Geometrically Nonlinear Random Vibrations Using Commercial Finite Element Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Muravyov, Alexander A.

2002-01-01

Two new equivalent linearization implementations for geometrically nonlinear random vibrations are presented. Both implementations are based upon a novel approach for evaluating the nonlinear stiffness within commercial finite element codes and are suitable for use with any finite element code having geometrically nonlinear static analysis capabilities. The formulation includes a traditional force-error minimization approach and a relatively new version of a potential energy-error minimization approach, which has been generalized for multiple degree-of-freedom systems. Results for a simply supported plate under random acoustic excitation are presented and comparisons of the displacement root-mean-square values and power spectral densities are made with results from a nonlinear time domain numerical simulation.

Role of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties of acoutic Doppler current profiler discharge measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tarrab, Leticia; Garcia, Carlos M.; Cantero, Mariano I.; Oberg, Kevin

2012-01-01

This work presents a systematic analysis quantifying the role of the presence of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties (random errors) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving platforms. Data sets of three-dimensional flow velocities with high temporal and spatial resolution were generated from direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow. Dimensionless functions relating parameters quantifying the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to flow turbulence (relative variance and relative maximum random error) to sampling configuration were developed from the DNS simulations and then validated with field-scale discharge measurements. The validated functions were used to evaluate the role of the presence of flow turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties in ADCP discharge measurements. The results of this work indicate that random errors due to the flow turbulence are significant when: (a) a low number of transects is used for a discharge measurement, and (b) measurements are made in shallow rivers using high boat velocity (short time for the boat to cross a flow turbulence structure).

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario.

PubMed

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-11-22

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals' average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day's WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas.

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario

PubMed Central

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-01-01

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals’ average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day’s WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas. PMID:27879663

Impact of documentation errors on accuracy of cause of death coding in an educational hospital in Southern Iran.

PubMed

Haghighi, Mohammad Hosein Hayavi; Dehghani, Mohammad; Teshnizi, Saeid Hoseini; Mahmoodi, Hamid

2014-01-01

Accurate cause of death coding leads to organised and usable death information but there are some factors that influence documentation on death certificates and therefore affect the coding. We reviewed the role of documentation errors on the accuracy of death coding at Shahid Mohammadi Hospital (SMH), Bandar Abbas, Iran. We studied the death certificates of all deceased patients in SMH from October 2010 to March 2011. Researchers determined and coded the underlying cause of death on the death certificates according to the guidelines issued by the World Health Organization in Volume 2 of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems-10th revision (ICD-10). Necessary ICD coding rules (such as the General Principle, Rules 1-3, the modification rules and other instructions about death coding) were applied to select the underlying cause of death on each certificate. Demographic details and documentation errors were then extracted. Data were analysed with descriptive statistics and chi square tests. The accuracy rate of causes of death coding was 51.7%, demonstrating a statistically significant relationship (p=.001) with major errors but not such a relationship with minor errors. Factors that result in poor quality of Cause of Death coding in SMH are lack of coder training, documentation errors and the undesirable structure of death certificates.

Prevalence of visual impairment and blindness in Upper Egypt: a gender-based perspective.

PubMed

Mousa, Ahmed; Courtright, Paul; Kazanjian, Arminee; Bassett, Ken

2014-06-01

To estimate the prevalence, causes of and risk factors for vision loss in Upper Egypt. In this cross-sectional study, four villages in Upper Egypt were randomly selected; within these four villages, households were randomly selected and within the selected households all residents aged ≥ 40 years were enumerated and enrolled. Door-to-door eye examinations of household members were conducted. Data on relevant demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were collected. The prevalence and causes of vision loss and associated risk factors were assessed. Sex differences in prevalence and determinants were also evaluated. The prevalence of best eye presenting visual impairment, severe visual impairment, and blindness were 23.9%, 6.4%, and 9.3% respectively. The prevalence of blindness among women significantly exceeded that among men (11.8% vs. 5.4%, respectively, p = 0.021). The prevalence of cataract was 22.9% (higher in women, 26.5% than men 17.2%, p = 0.018). The prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis was 9.7% (higher among women, 12.5%, than men, 5.4%, p = 0.012). The principal causes of blindness were cataract (60%), uncorrected refractive errors (16%) and corneal opacities (12%). Age, sex, family size, illiteracy, unemployment, water source and sanitation methods and living conditions were the major risk factors for vision loss. The prevalence of visual impairment remains high in Egypt, particularly among women. Risk factors for blindness may differ between men and women. There is a need for qualitative investigations to better understand the causes behind the excess in prevalence of blindness among women.

The Hurst Phenomenon in Error Estimates Related to Atmospheric Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Nelson Luís; Crivellaro, Bianca Luhm; Chamecki, Marcelo

2018-05-01

The Hurst phenomenon is a well-known feature of long-range persistence first observed in hydrological and geophysical time series by E. Hurst in the 1950s. It has also been found in several cases in turbulence time series measured in the wind tunnel, the atmosphere, and in rivers. Here, we conduct a systematic investigation of the value of the Hurst coefficient H in atmospheric surface-layer data, and its impact on the estimation of random errors. We show that usually H > 0.5 , which implies the non-existence (in the statistical sense) of the integral time scale. Since the integral time scale is present in the Lumley-Panofsky equation for the estimation of random errors, this has important practical consequences. We estimated H in two principal ways: (1) with an extension of the recently proposed filtering method to estimate the random error (H_p ), and (2) with the classical rescaled range introduced by Hurst (H_R ). Other estimators were tried but were found less able to capture the statistical behaviour of the large scales of turbulence. Using data from three micrometeorological campaigns we found that both first- and second-order turbulence statistics display the Hurst phenomenon. Usually, H_R is larger than H_p for the same dataset, raising the question that one, or even both, of these estimators, may be biased. For the relative error, we found that the errors estimated with the approach adopted by us, that we call the relaxed filtering method, and that takes into account the occurrence of the Hurst phenomenon, are larger than both the filtering method and the classical Lumley-Panofsky estimates. Finally, we found that there is no apparent relationship between H and the Obukhov stability parameter. The relative errors, however, do show stability dependence, particularly in the case of the error of the kinematic momentum flux in unstable conditions, and that of the kinematic sensible heat flux in stable conditions.

A multiobserver study of the effects of including point-of-care patient photographs with portable radiography: a means to detect wrong-patient errors.

PubMed

Tridandapani, Srini; Ramamurthy, Senthil; Provenzale, James; Obuchowski, Nancy A; Evanoff, Michael G; Bhatti, Pamela

2014-08-01

To evaluate whether the presence of facial photographs obtained at the point-of-care of portable radiography leads to increased detection of wrong-patient errors. In this institutional review board-approved study, 166 radiograph-photograph combinations were obtained from 30 patients. Consecutive radiographs from the same patients resulted in 83 unique pairs (ie, a new radiograph and prior, comparison radiograph) for interpretation. To simulate wrong-patient errors, mismatched pairs were generated by pairing radiographs from different patients chosen randomly from the sample. Ninety radiologists each interpreted a unique randomly chosen set of 10 radiographic pairs, containing up to 10% mismatches (ie, error pairs). Radiologists were randomly assigned to interpret radiographs with or without photographs. The number of mismatches was identified, and interpretation times were recorded. Ninety radiologists with 21 ± 10 (mean ± standard deviation) years of experience were recruited to participate in this observer study. With the introduction of photographs, the proportion of errors detected increased from 31% (9 of 29) to 77% (23 of 30; P = .006). The odds ratio for detection of error with photographs to detection without photographs was 7.3 (95% confidence interval: 2.29-23.18). Observer qualifications, training, or practice in cardiothoracic radiology did not influence sensitivity for error detection. There is no significant difference in interpretation time for studies without photographs and those with photographs (60 ± 22 vs. 61 ± 25 seconds; P = .77). In this observer study, facial photographs obtained simultaneously with portable chest radiographs increased the identification of any wrong-patient errors, without substantial increase in interpretation time. This technique offers a potential means to increase patient safety through correct patient identification. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Research on Measurement Accuracy of Laser Tracking System Based on Spherical Mirror with Rotation Errors of Gimbal Mount Axes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Zhaoyao; Song, Huixu; Chen, Hongfang; Sun, Yanqiang

2018-02-01

This paper presents a novel experimental approach for confirming that spherical mirror of a laser tracking system can reduce the influences of rotation errors of gimbal mount axes on the measurement accuracy. By simplifying the optical system model of laser tracking system based on spherical mirror, we can easily extract the laser ranging measurement error caused by rotation errors of gimbal mount axes with the positions of spherical mirror, biconvex lens, cat's eye reflector, and measuring beam. The motions of polarization beam splitter and biconvex lens along the optical axis and vertical direction of optical axis are driven by error motions of gimbal mount axes. In order to simplify the experimental process, the motion of biconvex lens is substituted by the motion of spherical mirror according to the principle of relative motion. The laser ranging measurement error caused by the rotation errors of gimbal mount axes could be recorded in the readings of laser interferometer. The experimental results showed that the laser ranging measurement error caused by rotation errors was less than 0.1 μm if radial error motion and axial error motion were within ±10 μm. The experimental method simplified the experimental procedure and the spherical mirror could reduce the influences of rotation errors of gimbal mount axes on the measurement accuracy of the laser tracking system.

Solar Tracking Error Analysis of Fresnel Reflector

PubMed Central

Zheng, Jiantao; Yan, Junjie; Pei, Jie; Liu, Guanjie

2014-01-01

Depending on the rotational structure of Fresnel reflector, the rotation angle of the mirror was deduced under the eccentric condition. By analyzing the influence of the sun tracking rotation angle error caused by main factors, the change rule and extent of the influence were revealed. It is concluded that the tracking errors caused by the difference between the rotation axis and true north meridian, at noon, were maximum under certain conditions and reduced at morning and afternoon gradually. The tracking error caused by other deviations such as rotating eccentric, latitude, and solar altitude was positive at morning, negative at afternoon, and zero at a certain moment of noon. PMID:24895664

The Propagation of Errors in Experimental Data Analysis: A Comparison of Pre-and Post-Test Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorard, Stephen

2013-01-01

Experimental designs involving the randomization of cases to treatment and control groups are powerful and under-used in many areas of social science and social policy. This paper reminds readers of the pre-and post-test, and the post-test only, designs, before explaining briefly how measurement errors propagate according to error theory. The…

Analysis of Errors Committed by Physics Students in Secondary Schools in Ilorin Metropolis, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Omosewo, Esther Ore; Akanbi, Abdulrasaq Oladimeji

2013-01-01

The study attempt to find out the types of error committed and influence of gender on the type of error committed by senior secondary school physics students in metropolis. Six (6) schools were purposively chosen for the study. One hundred and fifty five students' scripts were randomly sampled for the study. Joint Mock physics essay questions…

Multiscale measurement error models for aggregated small area health data.

PubMed

Aregay, Mehreteab; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Carroll, Rachel; Watjou, Kevin

2016-08-01

Spatial data are often aggregated from a finer (smaller) to a coarser (larger) geographical level. The process of data aggregation induces a scaling effect which smoothes the variation in the data. To address the scaling problem, multiscale models that link the convolution models at different scale levels via the shared random effect have been proposed. One of the main goals in aggregated health data is to investigate the relationship between predictors and an outcome at different geographical levels. In this paper, we extend multiscale models to examine whether a predictor effect at a finer level hold true at a coarser level. To adjust for predictor uncertainty due to aggregation, we applied measurement error models in the framework of multiscale approach. To assess the benefit of using multiscale measurement error models, we compare the performance of multiscale models with and without measurement error in both real and simulated data. We found that ignoring the measurement error in multiscale models underestimates the regression coefficient, while it overestimates the variance of the spatially structured random effect. On the other hand, accounting for the measurement error in multiscale models provides a better model fit and unbiased parameter estimates. © The Author(s) 2016.

Two-dimensional confocal laser scanning microscopy image correlation for nanoparticle flow velocimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Brian; Giarra, Matthew; Golz, Brian; Main, Russell; Vlachos, Pavlos

2016-11-01

We present a methodology to mitigate the major sources of error associated with two-dimensional confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) images of nanoparticles flowing through a microfluidic channel. The correlation-based velocity measurements from CLSM images are subject to random error due to the Brownian motion of nanometer-sized tracer particles, and a bias error due to the formation of images by raster scanning. Here, we develop a novel ensemble phase correlation with dynamic optimal filter that maximizes the correlation strength, which diminishes the random error. In addition, we introduce an analytical model of CLSM measurement bias error correction due to two-dimensional image scanning of tracer particles. We tested our technique using both synthetic and experimental images of nanoparticles flowing through a microfluidic channel. We observed that our technique reduced the error by up to a factor of ten compared to ensemble standard cross correlation (SCC) for the images tested in the present work. Subsequently, we will assess our framework further, by interrogating nanoscale flow in the cell culture environment (transport within the lacunar-canalicular system) to demonstrate our ability to accurately resolve flow measurements in a biological system.

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Salehi, Habib

1992-01-01

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow were analyzed for 25 pairs of streamflow-gaging stations in Michigan. Stations were paired by randomly choosing a station operated in 1989 at which 10 or more years of continuous flow data had been collected and at which flow is virtually unregulated; a nearby station was chosen where flow characteristics are similar. Streamflow data from the 25 randomly selected stations were used as the response variables; streamflow data at the nearby stations were used to generate a set of explanatory variables. Ordinary-least squares regression (OLSR) equations, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) equations, and transfer function-noise (TFN) equations were developed to estimate the log transform of flow for the 25 randomly selected stations. The precision of each type of equation was evaluated on the basis of the standard deviation of the estimation errors. OLSR equations produce one set of estimation errors; ARIMA and TFN models each produce l sets of estimation errors corresponding to the forecast lead. The lead-l forecast is the estimate of flow l days ahead of the most recent streamflow used as a response variable in the estimation. In this analysis, the standard deviation of lead l ARIMA and TFN forecast errors were generally lower than the standard deviation of OLSR errors for l < 2 days and l < 9 days, respectively. Composite estimates were computed as a weighted average of forecasts based on TFN equations and backcasts (forecasts of the reverse-ordered series) based on ARIMA equations. The standard deviation of composite errors varied throughout the length of the estimation interval and generally was at maximum near the center of the interval. For comparison with OLSR errors, the mean standard deviation of composite errors were computed for intervals of length 1 to 40 days. The mean standard deviation of length-l composite errors were generally less than the standard deviation of the OLSR errors for l < 32 days. In addition, the composite estimates ensure a gradual transition between periods of estimated and measured flows. Model performance among stations of differing model error magnitudes were compared by computing ratios of the mean standard deviation of the length l composite errors to the standard deviation of OLSR errors. The mean error ratio for the set of 25 selected stations was less than 1 for intervals l < 32 days. Considering the frequency characteristics of the length of intervals of estimated record in Michigan, the effective mean error ratio for intervals < 30 days was 0.52. Thus, for intervals of estimation of 1 month or less, the error of the composite estimate is substantially lower than error of the OLSR estimate.

Error coding simulations in C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Viveca K.

1994-01-01

When data is transmitted through a noisy channel, errors are produced within the data rendering it indecipherable. Through the use of error control coding techniques, the bit error rate can be reduced to any desired level without sacrificing the transmission data rate. The Astrionics Laboratory at Marshall Space Flight Center has decided to use a modular, end-to-end telemetry data simulator to simulate the transmission of data from flight to ground and various methods of error control. The simulator includes modules for random data generation, data compression, Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) transfer frame formation, error correction/detection, error generation and error statistics. The simulator utilizes a concatenated coding scheme which includes CCSDS standard (255,223) Reed-Solomon (RS) code over GF(2(exp 8)) with interleave depth of 5 as the outermost code, (7, 1/2) convolutional code as an inner code and CCSDS recommended (n, n-16) cyclic redundancy check (CRC) code as the innermost code, where n is the number of information bits plus 16 parity bits. The received signal-to-noise for a desired bit error rate is greatly reduced through the use of forward error correction techniques. Even greater coding gain is provided through the use of a concatenated coding scheme. Interleaving/deinterleaving is necessary to randomize burst errors which may appear at the input of the RS decoder. The burst correction capability length is increased in proportion to the interleave depth. The modular nature of the simulator allows for inclusion or exclusion of modules as needed. This paper describes the development and operation of the simulator, the verification of a C-language Reed-Solomon code, and the possibility of using Comdisco SPW(tm) as a tool for determining optimal error control schemes.

Output Error Analysis of Planar 2-DOF Five-bar Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Kejia; Wang, Jun; Ting, Kwun-Lon; Tao, Fen; Cheng, Qunchao; Wang, Quan; Zhang, Kaiyang

2018-03-01

Aiming at the mechanism error caused by clearance of planar 2-DOF Five-bar motion pair, the method of equivalent joint clearance of kinematic pair to virtual link is applied. The structural error model of revolute joint clearance is established based on the N-bar rotation laws and the concept of joint rotation space, The influence of the clearance of the moving pair is studied on the output error of the mechanis. and the calculation method and basis of the maximum error are given. The error rotation space of the mechanism under the influence of joint clearance is obtained. The results show that this method can accurately calculate the joint space error rotation space, which provides a new way to analyze the planar parallel mechanism error caused by joint space.

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

2018-04-01

There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

Error analysis of mathematical problems on TIMSS: A case of Indonesian secondary students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priyani, H. A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

Indonesian students’ competence in solving mathematical problems is still considered as weak. It was pointed out by the results of international assessment such as TIMSS. This might be caused by various types of errors made. Hence, this study aimed at identifying students’ errors in solving mathematical problems in TIMSS in the topic of numbers that considered as the fundamental concept in Mathematics. This study applied descriptive qualitative analysis. The subject was three students with most errors in the test indicators who were taken from 34 students of 8th graders. Data was obtained through paper and pencil test and student’s’ interview. The error analysis indicated that in solving Applying level problem, the type of error that students made was operational errors. In addition, for reasoning level problem, there are three types of errors made such as conceptual errors, operational errors and principal errors. Meanwhile, analysis of the causes of students’ errors showed that students did not comprehend the mathematical problems given.

Image motion compensation by area correlation and centroid tracking of solar surface features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nein, M. E.; Mcintosh, W. R.; Cumings, N. P.

1983-01-01

An experimental solar correlation tracker was tested and evaluated on a ground-based solar magnetograph. Using sunspots as fixed targets, tracking error signals were derived by which the telescope image was stabilized against wind induced perturbations. Two methods of stabilization were investigated; mechanical stabilization of the image by controlled two-axes motion of an active optical element in the telescope beam, and electronic stabilization by biasing of the electron scan in the recording camera. Both approaches have demonstrated telescope stability of about 0.6 arc sec under random perturbations which can cause the unstabilized image to move up to 120 arc sec at frequencies up to 30 Hz.

Causes of medication administration errors in hospitals: a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

PubMed

Keers, Richard N; Williams, Steven D; Cooke, Jonathan; Ashcroft, Darren M

2013-11-01

Underlying systems factors have been seen to be crucial contributors to the occurrence of medication errors. By understanding the causes of these errors, the most appropriate interventions can be designed and implemented to minimise their occurrence. This study aimed to systematically review and appraise empirical evidence relating to the causes of medication administration errors (MAEs) in hospital settings. Nine electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, ASSIA, PsycINFO, British Nursing Index, CINAHL, Health Management Information Consortium and Social Science Citations Index) were searched between 1985 and May 2013. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to identify eligible publications through title analysis followed by abstract and then full text examination. English language publications reporting empirical data on causes of MAEs were included. Reference lists of included articles and relevant review papers were hand searched for additional studies. Studies were excluded if they did not report data on specific MAEs, used accounts from individuals not directly involved in the MAE concerned or were presented as conference abstracts with insufficient detail. A total of 54 unique studies were included. Causes of MAEs were categorised according to Reason's model of accident causation. Studies were assessed to determine relevance to the research question and how likely the results were to reflect the potential underlying causes of MAEs based on the method(s) used. Slips and lapses were the most commonly reported unsafe acts, followed by knowledge-based mistakes and deliberate violations. Error-provoking conditions influencing administration errors included inadequate written communication (prescriptions, documentation, transcription), problems with medicines supply and storage (pharmacy dispensing errors and ward stock management), high perceived workload, problems with ward-based equipment (access, functionality), patient factors (availability, acuity), staff health status (fatigue, stress) and interruptions/distractions during drug administration. Few studies sought to determine the causes of intravenous MAEs. A number of latent pathway conditions were less well explored, including local working culture and high-level managerial decisions. Causes were often described superficially; this may be related to the use of quantitative surveys and observation methods in many studies, limited use of established error causation frameworks to analyse data and a predominant focus on issues other than the causes of MAEs among studies. As only English language publications were included, some relevant studies may have been missed. Limited evidence from studies included in this systematic review suggests that MAEs are influenced by multiple systems factors, but if and how these arise and interconnect to lead to errors remains to be fully determined. Further research with a theoretical focus is needed to investigate the MAE causation pathway, with an emphasis on ensuring interventions designed to minimise MAEs target recognised underlying causes of errors to maximise their impact.

How large are the consequences of covariate imbalance in cluster randomized trials: a simulation study with a continuous outcome and a binary covariate at the cluster level.

PubMed

Moerbeek, Mirjam; van Schie, Sander

2016-07-11

The number of clusters in a cluster randomized trial is often low. It is therefore likely random assignment of clusters to treatment conditions results in covariate imbalance. There are no studies that quantify the consequences of covariate imbalance in cluster randomized trials on parameter and standard error bias and on power to detect treatment effects. The consequences of covariance imbalance in unadjusted and adjusted linear mixed models are investigated by means of a simulation study. The factors in this study are the degree of imbalance, the covariate effect size, the cluster size and the intraclass correlation coefficient. The covariate is binary and measured at the cluster level; the outcome is continuous and measured at the individual level. The results show covariate imbalance results in negligible parameter bias and small standard error bias in adjusted linear mixed models. Ignoring the possibility of covariate imbalance while calculating the sample size at the cluster level may result in a loss in power of at most 25 % in the adjusted linear mixed model. The results are more severe for the unadjusted linear mixed model: parameter biases up to 100 % and standard error biases up to 200 % may be observed. Power levels based on the unadjusted linear mixed model are often too low. The consequences are most severe for large clusters and/or small intraclass correlation coefficients since then the required number of clusters to achieve a desired power level is smallest. The possibility of covariate imbalance should be taken into account while calculating the sample size of a cluster randomized trial. Otherwise more sophisticated methods to randomize clusters to treatments should be used, such as stratification or balance algorithms. All relevant covariates should be carefully identified, be actually measured and included in the statistical model to avoid severe levels of parameter and standard error bias and insufficient power levels.

Medication Administration Errors in an Adult Emergency Department of a Tertiary Health Care Facility in Ghana.

PubMed

Acheampong, Franklin; Tetteh, Ashalley Raymond; Anto, Berko Panyin

2016-12-01

This study determined the incidence, types, clinical significance, and potential causes of medication administration errors (MAEs) at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary health care facility in Ghana. This study used a cross-sectional nonparticipant observational technique. Study participants (nurses) were observed preparing and administering medication at the ED of a 2000-bed tertiary care hospital in Accra, Ghana. The observations were then compared with patients' medication charts, and identified errors were clarified with staff for possible causes. Of the 1332 observations made, involving 338 patients and 49 nurses, 362 had errors, representing 27.2%. However, the error rate excluding "lack of drug availability" fell to 12.8%. Without wrong time error, the error rate was 22.8%. The 2 most frequent error types were omission (n = 281, 77.6%) and wrong time (n = 58, 16%) errors. Omission error was mainly due to unavailability of medicine, 48.9% (n = 177). Although only one of the errors was potentially fatal, 26.7% were definitely clinically severe. The common themes that dominated the probable causes of MAEs were unavailability, staff factors, patient factors, prescription, and communication problems. This study gives credence to similar studies in different settings that MAEs occur frequently in the ED of hospitals. Most of the errors identified were not potentially fatal; however, preventive strategies need to be used to make life-saving processes such as drug administration in such specialized units error-free.

Stochastic characterization of phase detection algorithms in phase-shifting interferometry

DOE PAGES

Munteanu, Florin

2016-11-01

Phase-shifting interferometry (PSI) is the preferred non-contact method for profiling sub-nanometer surfaces. Based on monochromatic light interference, the method computes the surface profile from a set of interferograms collected at separate stepping positions. Errors in the estimated profile are introduced when these positions are not located correctly. In order to cope with this problem, various algorithms that minimize the effects of certain types of stepping errors (linear, sinusoidal, etc.) have been developed. Despite the relatively large number of algorithms suggested in the literature, there is no unified way of characterizing their performance when additional unaccounted random errors are present. Here,more » we suggest a procedure for quantifying the expected behavior of each algorithm in the presence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random stepping errors, which can occur in addition to the systematic errors for which the algorithm has been designed. As a result, the usefulness of this method derives from the fact that it can guide the selection of the best algorithm for specific measurement situations.« less

46 CFR 520.14 - Special permission.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... the Commission, in its discretion and for good cause shown, to permit increases or decreases in rates... its discretion and for good cause shown, permit departures from the requirements of this part. (b) Clerical errors. Typographical and/or clerical errors constitute good cause for the exercise of special...

46 CFR 520.14 - Special permission.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... the Commission, in its discretion and for good cause shown, to permit increases or decreases in rates... its discretion and for good cause shown, permit departures from the requirements of this part. (b) Clerical errors. Typographical and/or clerical errors constitute good cause for the exercise of special...

Probing the cosmic causes of errors in supercomputers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Cosmic rays from outer space are causing errors in supercomputers. The neutrons that pass through the CPU may be causing binary data to flip leading to incorrect calculations. Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed detectors to determine how much data is being corrupted by these cosmic particles.

Sensory feedback in a bump attractor model of path integration.

PubMed

Poll, Daniel B; Nguyen, Khanh; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2016-04-01

Mammalian spatial navigation systems utilize several different sensory information channels. This information is converted into a neural code that represents the animal's current position in space by engaging place cell, grid cell, and head direction cell networks. In particular, sensory landmark (allothetic) cues can be utilized in concert with an animal's knowledge of its own velocity (idiothetic) cues to generate a more accurate representation of position than path integration provides on its own (Battaglia et al. The Journal of Neuroscience 24(19):4541-4550 (2004)). We develop a computational model that merges path integration with feedback from external sensory cues that provide a reliable representation of spatial position along an annular track. Starting with a continuous bump attractor model, we explore the impact of synaptic spatial asymmetry and heterogeneity, which disrupt the position code of the path integration process. We use asymptotic analysis to reduce the bump attractor model to a single scalar equation whose potential represents the impact of asymmetry and heterogeneity. Such imperfections cause errors to build up when the network performs path integration, but these errors can be corrected by an external control signal representing the effects of sensory cues. We demonstrate that there is an optimal strength and decay rate of the control signal when cues appear either periodically or randomly. A similar analysis is performed when errors in path integration arise from dynamic noise fluctuations. Again, there is an optimal strength and decay of discrete control that minimizes the path integration error.

Contagious error sources would need time travel to prevent quantum computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalai, Gil; Kuperberg, Greg

2015-08-01

We consider an error model for quantum computing that consists of "contagious quantum germs" that can infect every output qubit when at least one input qubit is infected. Once a germ actively causes error, it continues to cause error indefinitely for every qubit it infects, with arbitrary quantum entanglement and correlation. Although this error model looks much worse than quasi-independent error, we show that it reduces to quasi-independent error with the technique of quantum teleportation. The construction, which was previously described by Knill, is that every quantum circuit can be converted to a mixed circuit with bounded quantum depth. We also consider the restriction of bounded quantum depth from the point of view of quantum complexity classes.

The Enhancement of 3D Scans Depth Resolution Obtained by Confocal Scanning of Porous Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martisek, Dalibor; Prochazkova, Jana

2017-12-01

The 3D reconstruction of simple structured materials using a confocal microscope is widely used in many different areas including civil engineering. Nonetheless, scans of porous materials such as concrete or cement paste are highly problematic. The well-known problem of these scans is low depth resolution in comparison to the horizontal and vertical resolution. The degradation of the image depth resolution is caused by systematic errors and especially by different random events. Our method is focused on the elimination of such random events, mainly the additive noise. We use an averaging method based on the Lindeberg-Lévy theorem that improves the final depth resolution to a level comparable with horizontal and vertical resolution. Moreover, using the least square method, we also precisely determine the limit value of a depth resolution. Therefore, we can continuously evaluate the difference between current resolution and the optimal one. This substantially simplifies the scanning process because the operator can easily determine the required number of scans.

Disclosure of Medical Errors: What Factors Influence How Patients Respond?

PubMed Central

Mazor, Kathleen M; Reed, George W; Yood, Robert A; Fischer, Melissa A; Baril, Joann; Gurwitz, Jerry H

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND Disclosure of medical errors is encouraged, but research on how patients respond to specific practices is limited. OBJECTIVE This study sought to determine whether full disclosure, an existing positive physician-patient relationship, an offer to waive associated costs, and the severity of the clinical outcome influenced patients' responses to medical errors. PARTICIPANTS Four hundred and seven health plan members participated in a randomized experiment in which they viewed video depictions of medical error and disclosure. DESIGN Subjects were randomly assigned to experimental condition. Conditions varied in type of medication error, level of disclosure, reference to a prior positive physician-patient relationship, an offer to waive costs, and clinical outcome. MEASURES Self-reported likelihood of changing physicians and of seeking legal advice; satisfaction, trust, and emotional response. RESULTS Nondisclosure increased the likelihood of changing physicians, and reduced satisfaction and trust in both error conditions. Nondisclosure increased the likelihood of seeking legal advice and was associated with a more negative emotional response in the missed allergy error condition, but did not have a statistically significant impact on seeking legal advice or emotional response in the monitoring error condition. Neither the existence of a positive relationship nor an offer to waive costs had a statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS This study provides evidence that full disclosure is likely to have a positive effect or no effect on how patients respond to medical errors. The clinical outcome also influences patients' responses. The impact of an existing positive physician-patient relationship, or of waiving costs associated with the error remains uncertain. PMID:16808770

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

PubMed

Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

2018-04-15

For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Attitudes of Mashhad Public Hospital's Nurses and Midwives toward the Causes and Rates of Medical Errors Reporting.

PubMed

Mobarakabadi, Sedigheh Sedigh; Ebrahimipour, Hosein; Najar, Ali Vafaie; Janghorban, Roksana; Azarkish, Fatemeh

2017-03-01

Patient's safety is one of the main objective in healthcare services; however medical errors are a prevalent potential occurrence for the patients in treatment systems. Medical errors lead to an increase in mortality rate of the patients and challenges such as prolonging of the inpatient period in the hospitals and increased cost. Controlling the medical errors is very important, because these errors besides being costly, threaten the patient's safety. To evaluate the attitudes of nurses and midwives toward the causes and rates of medical errors reporting. It was a cross-sectional observational study. The study population was 140 midwives and nurses employed in Mashhad Public Hospitals. The data collection was done through Goldstone 2001 revised questionnaire. SPSS 11.5 software was used for data analysis. To analyze data, descriptive and inferential analytic statistics were used. Standard deviation and relative frequency distribution, descriptive statistics were used for calculation of the mean and the results were adjusted as tables and charts. Chi-square test was used for the inferential analysis of the data. Most of midwives and nurses (39.4%) were in age range of 25 to 34 years and the lowest percentage (2.2%) were in age range of 55-59 years. The highest average of medical errors was related to employees with three-four years of work experience, while the lowest average was related to those with one-two years of work experience. The highest average of medical errors was during the evening shift, while the lowest were during the night shift. Three main causes of medical errors were considered: illegibile physician prescription orders, similarity of names in different drugs and nurse fatigueness. The most important causes for medical errors from the viewpoints of nurses and midwives are illegible physician's order, drug name similarity with other drugs, nurse's fatigueness and damaged label or packaging of the drug, respectively. Head nurse feedback, peer feedback, fear of punishment or job loss were considered as reasons for under reporting of medical errors. This research demonstrates the need for greater attention to be paid to the causes of medical errors.

The Prevalence and Causes of Vision Loss in Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians: The National Eye Health Survey.

PubMed

Foreman, Joshua; Xie, Jing; Keel, Stuart; van Wijngaarden, Peter; Sandhu, Sukhpal Singh; Ang, Ghee Soon; Fan Gaskin, Jennifer; Crowston, Jonathan; Bourne, Rupert; Taylor, Hugh R; Dirani, Mohamed

2017-12-01

To conduct a nationwide survey on the prevalence and causes of vision loss in Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Nationwide, cross-sectional, population-based survey. Indigenous Australians aged 40 years or older and non-Indigenous Australians aged 50 years and older. Multistage random-cluster sampling was used to select 3098 non-Indigenous Australians and 1738 Indigenous Australians from 30 sites across 5 remoteness strata (response rate of 71.5%). Sociodemographic and health data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Trained examiners conducted standardized eye examinations, including visual acuity, perimetry, slit-lamp examination, intraocular pressure, and fundus photography. The prevalence and main causes of bilateral presenting vision loss (visual acuity <6/12 in the better eye) were determined, and risk factors were identified. Prevalence and main causes of vision loss. The overall prevalence of vision loss in Australia was 6.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4-7.8). The prevalence of vision loss was 11.2% (95% CI, 9.5-13.1) in Indigenous Australians and 6.5% (95% CI, 5.3-7.9) in non-Indigenous Australians. Vision loss was 2.8 times more prevalent in Indigenous Australians than in non-Indigenous Australians after age and gender adjustment (17.7%, 95% CI, 14.5-21.0 vs. 6.4%, 95% CI, 5.2-7.6, P < 0.001). In non-Indigenous Australians, the leading causes of vision loss were uncorrected refractive error (61.3%), cataract (13.2%), and age-related macular degeneration (10.3%). In Indigenous Australians, the leading causes of vision loss were uncorrected refractive error (60.8%), cataract (20.1%), and diabetic retinopathy (5.2%). In non-Indigenous Australians, increasing age (odds ratio [OR], 1.72 per decade) and having not had an eye examination within the past year (OR, 1.61) were risk factors for vision loss. Risk factors in Indigenous Australians included older age (OR, 1.61 per decade), remoteness (OR, 2.02), gender (OR, 0.60 for men), and diabetes in combination with never having had an eye examination (OR, 14.47). Vision loss is more prevalent in Indigenous Australians than in non-Indigenous Australians, highlighting that improvements in eye healthcare in Indigenous communities are required. The leading causes of vision loss were uncorrected refractive error and cataract, which are readily treatable. Other countries with Indigenous communities may benefit from conducting similar surveys of Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.

2017-12-01

Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.

Descriptions of verbal communication errors between staff. An analysis of 84 root cause analysis-reports from Danish hospitals.

PubMed

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Andersen, Mette Lehmann; Østergaard, Doris; Bjørn, Brian; Lilja, Beth; Mogensen, Torben

2011-03-01

Poor teamwork and communication between healthcare staff are correlated to patient safety incidents. However, the organisational factors responsible for these issues are unexplored. Root cause analyses (RCA) use human factors thinking to analyse the systems behind severe patient safety incidents. The objective of this study is to review RCA reports (RCAR) for characteristics of verbal communication errors between hospital staff in an organisational perspective. Two independent raters analysed 84 RCARs, conducted in six Danish hospitals between 2004 and 2006, for descriptions and characteristics of verbal communication errors such as handover errors and error during teamwork. Raters found description of verbal communication errors in 44 reports (52%). These included handover errors (35 (86%)), communication errors between different staff groups (19 (43%)), misunderstandings (13 (30%)), communication errors between junior and senior staff members (11 (25%)), hesitance in speaking up (10 (23%)) and communication errors during teamwork (8 (18%)). The kappa values were 0.44-0.78. Unproceduralized communication and information exchange via telephone, related to transfer between units and consults from other specialties, were particularly vulnerable processes. With the risk of bias in mind, it is concluded that more than half of the RCARs described erroneous verbal communication between staff members as root causes of or contributing factors of severe patient safety incidents. The RCARs rich descriptions of the incidents revealed the organisational factors and needs related to these errors.

SU-F-T-383: Robustness for Patient Setup Error in Total Body Irradiation Using Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Y; National Cancer Center, Kashiwa, Chiba; Tachibana, H

Purpose: Total body irradiation (TBI) and total marrow irradiation (TMI) using Tomotherapy have been reported. A gantry-based linear accelerator uses one isocenter during one rotational irradiation. Thus, 3–5 isocenter points should be used for a whole plan of TBI-VMAT during smoothing out the junctional dose distribution. IGRT provides accurate and precise patient setup for the multiple junctions, however it is evident that some setup errors should occur and affect accuracy of dose distribution in the area. In this study, we evaluated the robustness for patient’s setup error in VMAT-TBI. Methods: VMAT-TBI Planning was performed in an adult whole-body human phantommore » using Eclipse. Eight full arcs with four isocenter points using 6MV-X were used to cover the entire whole body. Dose distribution was optimized using two structures of patient’s body as PTV and lung. The two arcs were shared with one isocenter and the two arcs were 5 cm-overlapped with the other two arcs. Point absolute dose using ionization-chamber and planer relative dose distribution using film in the junctional regions were performed using water-equivalent slab phantom. In the measurements, several setup errors of (+5∼−5mm) were added. Results: The result of the chamber measurement shows the deviations were within ±3% when the setup errors were within ±3 mm. In the planer evaluation, the pass ratio of gamma evaluation (3%/2mm) shows more than 90% if the errors within ±3 mm. However, there were hot/cold areas in the edge of the junction even with acceptable gamma pass ratio. 5 mm setup error caused larger hot and cold areas and the dosimetric acceptable areas were decreased in the overlapped areas. Conclusion: It can be clinically acceptable for VMAT-TBI when patient setup error is within ±3mm. Averaging effects from patient random error would be helpful to blur the hot/cold area in the junction.« less

Magnetic field errors tolerances of Nuclotron booster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butenko, Andrey; Kazinova, Olha; Kostromin, Sergey; Mikhaylov, Vladimir; Tuzikov, Alexey; Khodzhibagiyan, Hamlet

2018-04-01

Generation of magnetic field in units of booster synchrotron for the NICA project is one of the most important conditions for getting the required parameters and qualitative accelerator operation. Research of linear and nonlinear dynamics of ion beam 197Au31+ in the booster have carried out with MADX program. Analytical estimation of magnetic field errors tolerance and numerical computation of dynamic aperture of booster DFO-magnetic lattice are presented. Closed orbit distortion with random errors of magnetic fields and errors in layout of booster units was evaluated.

An extended Reed Solomon decoder design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J.; Owsley, P.; Purviance, J.

1991-01-01

It has previously been shown that the Reed-Solomon (RS) codes can correct errors beyond the Singleton and Rieger Bounds with an arbitrarily small probability of a miscorrect. That is, an (n,k) RS code can correct more than (n-k)/2 errors. An implementation of such an RS decoder is presented in this paper. An existing RS decoder, the AHA4010, is utilized in this work. This decoder is especially useful for errors which are patterned with a long burst plus some random errors.

Development and demonstration of a Lagrangian dispersion modeling system for real-time prediction of smoke haze pollution from biomass burning in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertwig, Denise; Burgin, Laura; Gan, Christopher; Hort, Matthew; Jones, Andrew; Shaw, Felicia; Witham, Claire; Zhang, Kathy

2015-12-01

Transboundary smoke haze caused by biomass burning frequently causes extreme air pollution episodes in maritime and continental Southeast Asia. With millions of people being affected by this type of pollution every year, the task to introduce smoke haze related air quality forecasts is urgent. We investigate three severe haze episodes: June 2013 in Maritime SE Asia, induced by fires in central Sumatra, and March/April 2013 and 2014 on mainland SE Asia. Based on comparisons with surface measurements of PM10 we demonstrate that the combination of the Lagrangian dispersion model NAME with emissions derived from satellite-based active-fire detection provides reliable forecasts for the region. Contrasting two fire emission inventories shows that using algorithms to account for fire pixel obscuration by cloud or haze better captures the temporal variations and observed persistence of local pollution levels. Including up-to-date representations of fuel types in the area and using better conversion and emission factors is found to more accurately represent local concentration magnitudes, particularly for peat fires. With both emission inventories the overall spatial and temporal evolution of the haze events is captured qualitatively, with some error attributed to the resolution of the meteorological data driving the dispersion process. In order to arrive at a quantitative agreement with local PM10 levels, the simulation results need to be scaled. Considering the requirements of operational forecasts, we introduce a real-time bias correction technique to the modeling system to address systematic and random modeling errors, which successfully improves the results in terms of reduced normalized mean biases and fractional gross errors.

Calibration of visually guided reaching is driven by error-corrective learning and internal dynamics.

PubMed

Cheng, Sen; Sabes, Philip N

2007-04-01

The sensorimotor calibration of visually guided reaching changes on a trial-to-trial basis in response to random shifts in the visual feedback of the hand. We show that a simple linear dynamical system is sufficient to model the dynamics of this adaptive process. In this model, an internal variable represents the current state of sensorimotor calibration. Changes in this state are driven by error feedback signals, which consist of the visually perceived reach error, the artificial shift in visual feedback, or both. Subjects correct for > or =20% of the error observed on each movement, despite being unaware of the visual shift. The state of adaptation is also driven by internal dynamics, consisting of a decay back to a baseline state and a "state noise" process. State noise includes any source of variability that directly affects the state of adaptation, such as variability in sensory feedback processing, the computations that drive learning, or the maintenance of the state. This noise is accumulated in the state across trials, creating temporal correlations in the sequence of reach errors. These correlations allow us to distinguish state noise from sensorimotor performance noise, which arises independently on each trial from random fluctuations in the sensorimotor pathway. We show that these two noise sources contribute comparably to the overall magnitude of movement variability. Finally, the dynamics of adaptation measured with random feedback shifts generalizes to the case of constant feedback shifts, allowing for a direct comparison of our results with more traditional blocked-exposure experiments.

Identification of factors which affect the tendency towards and attitudes of emergency unit nurses to make medical errors.

PubMed

Kiymaz, Dilek; Koç, Zeliha

2018-03-01

To determine individual and professional factors affecting the tendency of emergency unit nurses to make medical errors and their attitudes towards these errors in Turkey. Compared with other units, the emergency unit is an environment where there is an increased tendency for making medical errors due to its intensive and rapid pace, noise and complex and dynamic structure. A descriptive cross-sectional study. The study was carried out from 25 July 2014-16 September 2015 with the participation of 284 nurses who volunteered to take part in the study. Data were gathered using the data collection survey for nurses, the Medical Error Tendency Scale and the Medical Error Attitude Scale. It was determined that 40.1% of the nurses previously witnessed medical errors, 19.4% made a medical error in the last year, 17.6% of medical errors were caused by medication errors where the wrong medication was administered in the wrong dose, and none of the nurses filled out a case report form about the medical errors they made. Regarding the factors that caused medical errors in the emergency unit, 91.2% of the nurses stated excessive workload as a cause; 85.1% stated an insufficient number of nurses; and 75.4% stated fatigue, exhaustion and burnout. The study showed that nurses who loved their job were satisfied with their unit and who always worked during day shifts had a lower medical error tendency. It is suggested to consider the following actions: increase awareness about medical errors, organise training to reduce errors in medication administration, develop procedures and protocols specific to the emergency unit health care and create an environment which is not punitive wherein nurses can safely report medical errors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Gulliver Effect: The Impact of Error in an Elephantine Subpopulation on Estimates for Lilliputian Subpopulations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Micceri, Theodore; Parasher, Pradnya; Waugh, Gordon W.; Herreid, Charlene

2009-01-01

An extensive review of the research literature and a study comparing over 36,000 survey responses with archival true scores indicated that one should expect a minimum of at least three percent random error for the least ambiguous of self-report measures. The Gulliver Effect occurs when a small proportion of error in a sizable subpopulation exerts…

Effectiveness of a novel mobile health education intervention (Peek) on spectacle wear among children in India: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Morjaria, Priya; Bastawrous, Andrew; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Evans, Jennifer; Gilbert, Clare

2017-04-08

Uncorrected refractive errors are the commonest cause of visual loss in children despite spectacle correction being highly cost-effective. Many affected children do not benefit from correction as a high proportion do not wear their spectacles. Reasons for non-wear include parental attitudes, overprescribing and children being teased/bullied. Most school programmes do not provide health education for affected children, their peers, teachers or parents. The Portable Eye Examination Kit (Peek) will be used in this study. Peek has applications for measuring visual acuity with software for data entry and sending automated messages to inform providers and parents. Peek also has an application which simulates the visual blur of uncorrected refractive error (SightSim). The hypothesis is that higher proportion of children with uncorrected refractive errors in schools allocated to the Peek educational package will wear their spectacles 3-4 months after they are dispensed, and a higher proportion of children identified with other eye conditions will access services, compared with schools receiving standard school screening. Cluster randomized, double-masked trial of children with and without uncorrected refractive errors or other eye conditions. Government schools in Hyderabad, India will be allocated to intervention (Peek) or comparator (standard programme) arms before vision screening. In the intervention arm Peek will be used for vision screening, SightSim images will be used in classroom teaching and will be taken home by children, and voice messages will be sent to parents of children requiring spectacles or referral. In both arms the same criteria for recruitment, prescribing and dispensing spectacles will be used. After 3-4 months children dispensed spectacles will be followed up to assess spectacle wear, and uptake of referrals will be ascertained. The cost of developing and delivering the Peek package will be assessed. The cost per child wearing their spectacles or accessing services will be compared. Educating parents, teachers and children about refractive errors and the importance of wearing spectacles has the potential to increase spectacle wear amongst children. Innovative, potentially scalable mobile technology (Peek) will be used to screen, provide health education, track spectacle wear and adherence to follow-up amongst children referred. Controlled-Trials.com, ISRCTN78134921 . Registered on 29 June 2016.

Effect of Error Augmentation on Brain Activation and Motor Learning of a Complex Locomotor Task

PubMed Central

Marchal-Crespo, Laura; Michels, Lars; Jaeger, Lukas; López-Olóriz, Jorge; Riener, Robert

2017-01-01

Up to date, the functional gains obtained after robot-aided gait rehabilitation training are limited. Error augmenting strategies have a great potential to enhance motor learning of simple motor tasks. However, little is known about the effect of these error modulating strategies on complex tasks, such as relearning to walk after a neurologic accident. Additionally, neuroimaging evaluation of brain regions involved in learning processes could provide valuable information on behavioral outcomes. We investigated the effect of robotic training strategies that augment errors—error amplification and random force disturbance—and training without perturbations on brain activation and motor learning of a complex locomotor task. Thirty-four healthy subjects performed the experiment with a robotic stepper (MARCOS) in a 1.5 T MR scanner. The task consisted in tracking a Lissajous figure presented on a display by coordinating the legs in a gait-like movement pattern. Behavioral results showed that training without perturbations enhanced motor learning in initially less skilled subjects, while error amplification benefited better-skilled subjects. Training with error amplification, however, hampered transfer of learning. Randomly disturbing forces induced learning and promoted transfer in all subjects, probably because the unexpected forces increased subjects' attention. Functional MRI revealed main effects of training strategy and skill level during training. A main effect of training strategy was seen in brain regions typically associated with motor control and learning, such as, the basal ganglia, cerebellum, intraparietal sulcus, and angular gyrus. Especially, random disturbance and no perturbation lead to stronger brain activation in similar brain regions than error amplification. Skill-level related effects were observed in the IPS, in parts of the superior parietal lobe (SPL), i.e., precuneus, and temporal cortex. These neuroimaging findings indicate that gait-like motor learning depends on interplay between subcortical, cerebellar, and fronto-parietal brain regions. An interesting observation was the low activation observed in the brain's reward system after training with error amplification compared to training without perturbations. Our results suggest that to enhance learning of a locomotor task, errors should be augmented based on subjects' skill level. The impacts of these strategies on motor learning, brain activation, and motivation in neurological patients need further investigation. PMID:29021739

Nonconvergence of the Wang-Landau algorithms with multiple random walkers.

PubMed

Belardinelli, R E; Pereyra, V D

2016-05-01

This paper discusses some convergence properties in the entropic sampling Monte Carlo methods with multiple random walkers, particularly in the Wang-Landau (WL) and 1/t algorithms. The classical algorithms are modified by the use of m-independent random walkers in the energy landscape to calculate the density of states (DOS). The Ising model is used to show the convergence properties in the calculation of the DOS, as well as the critical temperature, while the calculation of the number π by multiple dimensional integration is used in the continuum approximation. In each case, the error is obtained separately for each walker at a fixed time, t; then, the average over m walkers is performed. It is observed that the error goes as 1/sqrt[m]. However, if the number of walkers increases above a certain critical value m>m_{x}, the error reaches a constant value (i.e., it saturates). This occurs for both algorithms; however, it is shown that for a given system, the 1/t algorithm is more efficient and accurate than the similar version of the WL algorithm. It follows that it makes no sense to increase the number of walkers above a critical value m_{x}, since it does not reduce the error in the calculation. Therefore, the number of walkers does not guarantee convergence.

Accounting for Sampling Error in Genetic Eigenvalues Using Random Matrix Theory.

PubMed

Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L; Blows, Mark W

2017-07-01

The distribution of genetic variance in multivariate phenotypes is characterized by the empirical spectral distribution of the eigenvalues of the genetic covariance matrix. Empirical estimates of genetic eigenvalues from random effects linear models are known to be overdispersed by sampling error, where large eigenvalues are biased upward, and small eigenvalues are biased downward. The overdispersion of the leading eigenvalues of sample covariance matrices have been demonstrated to conform to the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution. Here we show that genetic eigenvalues estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) in a multivariate random effects model with an unconstrained genetic covariance structure will also conform to the TW distribution after empirical scaling and centering. However, where estimation procedures using either REML or MCMC impose boundary constraints, the resulting genetic eigenvalues tend not be TW distributed. We show how using confidence intervals from sampling distributions of genetic eigenvalues without reference to the TW distribution is insufficient protection against mistaking sampling error as genetic variance, particularly when eigenvalues are small. By scaling such sampling distributions to the appropriate TW distribution, the critical value of the TW statistic can be used to determine if the magnitude of a genetic eigenvalue exceeds the sampling error for each eigenvalue in the spectral distribution of a given genetic covariance matrix. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

CONTEXTUAL INTERFERENCE AND INTROVERSION/EXTRAVERSION IN MOTOR LEARNING.

PubMed

Meira, Cassio M; Fairbrother, Jeffrey T; Perez, Carlos R

2015-10-01

The Introversion/Extraversion dimension may interact with contextual interference, as random and blocked practice schedules imply distinct levels of variation. This study investigated the effect of different practice schedules in the acquisition of a motor skill in extraverts and introverts. Forty male undergraduate students (M = 24.3 yr., SD = 5.6) were classified as extraverts (n = 20) and introverts (n = 20) by the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and allocated in one of two practice schedules with different levels of contextual interference: blocked (low contextual interference) and random (high contextual interference). Half of each group was assigned to a blocked practice schedule, and the other half was assigned to a random practice schedule. The design had two phases: acquisition and transfer (5 min. and 24 hr.). The participants learned variations of a sequential timing keypressing task. Each variation required the same sequence but different timing; three variations were used in acquisition, and one variation of intermediate length was used in transfer. Results for absolute error and overall timing error (root mean square error) indicated that the contextual interference effect was more pronounced for introverts. In addition, introverts who practiced according to the blocked schedule committed more errors during the 24-hr. transfer, suggesting that introverts did not appear to be challenged by a low contextual interference practice schedule.

Estimating the Standard Error of the Impact Estimator in Individually Randomized Trials with Clustering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Michael J.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2016-01-01

In the "individually randomized group treatment" (IRGT) experimental design, individuals are first randomly assigned to a treatment arm or a control arm, but then within each arm, are grouped together (e.g., within classrooms/schools, through shared case managers, in group therapy sessions, through shared doctors, etc.) to receive…

A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping

PubMed Central

Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties. PMID:22320766

Global magnitude of visual impairment caused by uncorrected refractive errors in 2004

PubMed Central

Pascolini, Donatella; Mariotti, Silvio P; Pokharel, Gopal P

2008-01-01

Abstract Estimates of the prevalence of visual impairment caused by uncorrected refractive errors in 2004 have been determined at regional and global levels for people aged 5 years and over from recent published and unpublished surveys. The estimates were based on the prevalence of visual acuity of less than 6/18 in the better eye with the currently available refractive correction that could be improved to equal to or better than 6/18 by refraction or pinhole. A total of 153 million people (range of uncertainty: 123 million to 184 million) are estimated to be visually impaired from uncorrected refractive errors, of whom eight million are blind. This cause of visual impairment has been overlooked in previous estimates that were based on best-corrected vision. Combined with the 161 million people visually impaired estimated in 2002 according to best-corrected vision, 314 million people are visually impaired from all causes: uncorrected refractive errors become the main cause of low vision and the second cause of blindness. Uncorrected refractive errors can hamper performance at school, reduce employability and productivity, and generally impair quality of life. Yet the correction of refractive errors with appropriate spectacles is among the most cost-effective interventions in eye health care. The results presented in this paper help to unearth a formerly hidden problem of public health dimensions and promote policy development and implementation, programmatic decision-making and corrective interventions, as well as stimulate research. PMID:18235892

Random-access algorithms for multiuser computer communication networks. Doctoral thesis, 1 September 1986-31 August 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Papantoni-Kazakos, P.; Paterakis, M.

1988-07-01

For many communication applications with time constraints (e.g., transmission of packetized voice messages), a critical performance measure is the percentage of messages transmitted within a given amount of time after their generation at the transmitting station. This report presents a random-access algorithm (RAA) suitable for time-constrained applications. Performance analysis demonstrates that significant message-delay improvement is attained at the expense of minimal traffic loss. Also considered is the case of noisy channels. The noise effect appears at erroneously observed channel feedback. Error sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed random-access algorithm is insensitive to feedback channel errors. Window Random-Access Algorithms (RAAs) aremore » considered next. These algorithms constitute an important subclass of Multiple-Access Algorithms (MAAs); they are distributive, and they attain high throughput and low delays by controlling the number of simultaneously transmitting users.« less

Enhancement of cooperation in the spatial prisoner's dilemma with a coherence-resonance effect through annealed randomness at a cooperator-defector boundary; comparison of two variant models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanimoto, Jun

2016-11-01

Inspired by the commonly observed real-world fact that people tend to behave in a somewhat random manner after facing interim equilibrium to break a stalemate situation whilst seeking a higher output, we established two models of the spatial prisoner's dilemma. One presumes that an agent commits action errors, while the other assumes that an agent refers to a payoff matrix with an added random noise instead of an original payoff matrix. A numerical simulation revealed that mechanisms based on the annealing of randomness due to either the action error or the payoff noise could significantly enhance the cooperation fraction. In this study, we explain the detailed enhancement mechanism behind the two models by referring to the concepts that we previously presented with respect to evolutionary dynamic processes under the names of enduring and expanding periods.

Prevalence and vision-related outcomes of cataract surgery in Gujarat, India.

PubMed

Murthy, Gudlavalleti V S; Vashist, Praveen; John, Neena; Pokharel, Gopal; Ellwein, Leon B

2009-01-01

Investigate the prevalence and vision-related outcomes of cataract surgery in an area of high cataract surgical rate. Cluster sampling was used in randomly selecting individuals > or = 50 years of age in 2007. Participants were queried regarding year and place of previous cataract surgery. Cataract surgical procedures and evidence of surgical complications were recorded. The principal cause was identified for eyes presenting with visual acuity (VA) < or = 20/40. A total of 4,738 persons were examined and 834 (17.6%) had cataract surgery. Intra-ocular lenses (IOLs) were used in 84.1% of the 1,299 cataract-operated eyes, with more than half of these having manual small incision surgery. Surgical coverage among the cataract blind (visual acuity [VA] < 20/200) was estimated as 72.2%. Coverage was associated with older age, literacy, and urban residence; gender was not significant. Among cataract-operated eyes, 18.7% presented with VA > or = 20/32 and 18.0% were < 20/200. With best-corrected acuity, the corresponding percentages were 55.7% and 11.0%. Presenting and best-corrected VA > or = 20/63 were associated with young age, literacy, and IOL surgery; urban residence and surgery in non-governmental organizations (NGO)/private facilities were also significant for presenting VA; and recent surgery was significant for best-corrected VA. Refractive error was the main cause of vision impairment/blindness in cataract-operated eyes. Refractive error and posterior capsule opacification, easily treatable causes of visual impairment, are common among the operated. A greater emphasis on the quality of visual acuity outcomes along with sustained efforts to provide access to affordable surgery is needed.

Bias Correction and Random Error Characterization for the Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Wind Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tangborn, Andrew; Menard, Richard; Ortland, David; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new approach to the analysis of systematic and random observation errors is presented in which the error statistics are obtained using forecast data rather than observations from a different instrument type. The analysis is carried out at an intermediate retrieval level, instead of the more typical state variable space. This method is carried out on measurements made by the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). HRDI, a limb sounder, is the only satellite instrument measuring winds in the stratosphere, and the only instrument of any kind making global wind measurements in the upper atmosphere. HRDI measures doppler shifts in the two different O2 absorption bands (alpha and B) and the retrieved products are tangent point Line-of-Sight wind component (level 2 retrieval) and UV winds (level 3 retrieval). This analysis is carried out on a level 1.9 retrieval, in which the contributions from different points along the line-of-sight have not been removed. Biases are calculated from O-F (observed minus forecast) LOS wind components and are separated into a measurement parameter space consisting of 16 different values. The bias dependence on these parameters (plus an altitude dependence) is used to create a bias correction scheme carried out on the level 1.9 retrieval. The random error component is analyzed by separating the gamma and B band observations and locating observation pairs where both bands are very nearly looking at the same location at the same time. It is shown that the two observation streams are uncorrelated and that this allows the forecast error variance to be estimated. The bias correction is found to cut the effective observation error variance in half.

Comparison of error-based and errorless learning for people with severe traumatic brain injury: study protocol for a randomized control trial.

PubMed

Ownsworth, Tamara; Fleming, Jennifer; Tate, Robyn; Shum, David H K; Griffin, Janelle; Schmidt, Julia; Lane-Brown, Amanda; Kendall, Melissa; Chevignard, Mathilde

2013-11-05

Poor skills generalization poses a major barrier to successful outcomes of rehabilitation after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Error-based learning (EBL) is a relatively new intervention approach that aims to promote skills generalization by teaching people internal self-regulation skills, or how to anticipate, monitor and correct their own errors. This paper describes the protocol of a study that aims to compare the efficacy of EBL and errorless learning (ELL) for improving error self-regulation, behavioral competency, awareness of deficits and long-term outcomes after TBI. This randomized, controlled trial (RCT) has two arms (EBL and ELL); each arm entails 8 × 2 h training sessions conducted within the participants' homes. The first four sessions involve a meal preparation activity, and the final four sessions incorporate a multitasking errand activity. Based on a sample size estimate, 135 participants with severe TBI will be randomized into either the EBL or ELL condition. The primary outcome measure assesses error self-regulation skills on a task related to but distinct from training. Secondary outcomes include measures of self-monitoring and self-regulation, behavioral competency, awareness of deficits, role participation and supportive care needs. Assessments will be conducted at pre-intervention, post-intervention, and at 6-months post-intervention. This study seeks to determine the efficacy and long-term impact of EBL for training internal self-regulation strategies following severe TBI. In doing so, the study will advance theoretical understanding of the role of errors in task learning and skills generalization. EBL has the potential to reduce the length and costs of rehabilitation and lifestyle support because the techniques could enhance generalization success and lifelong application of strategies after TBI. ACTRN12613000585729.

Autoregressive Modeling of Drift and Random Error to Characterize a Continuous Intravascular Glucose Monitoring Sensor.

PubMed

Zhou, Tony; Dickson, Jennifer L; Geoffrey Chase, J

2018-01-01

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices have been effective in managing diabetes and offer potential benefits for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). Use of CGM devices in the ICU has been limited, primarily due to the higher point accuracy errors over currently used traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures. General models of CGM errors, including drift and random errors, are lacking, but would enable better design of protocols to utilize these devices. This article presents an autoregressive (AR) based modeling method that separately characterizes the drift and random noise of the GlySure CGM sensor (GlySure Limited, Oxfordshire, UK). Clinical sensor data (n = 33) and reference measurements were used to generate 2 AR models to describe sensor drift and noise. These models were used to generate 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on reference blood glucose measurements. These were then compared to the original CGM clinical data using mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and a Trend Compass. The point accuracy MARD was very similar between simulated and clinical data (9.6% vs 9.9%). A Trend Compass was used to assess trend accuracy, and found simulated and clinical sensor profiles were similar (simulated trend index 11.4° vs clinical trend index 10.9°). The model and method accurately represents cohort sensor behavior over patients, providing a general modeling approach to any such sensor by separately characterizing each type of error that can arise in the data. Overall, it enables better protocol design based on accurate expected CGM sensor behavior, as well as enabling the analysis of what level of each type of sensor error would be necessary to obtain desired glycemic control safety and performance with a given protocol.

Robust Tomography using Randomized Benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Marcus; Kimmel, Shelby; Johnson, Blake; Ryan, Colm; Ohki, Thomas

2013-03-01

Conventional randomized benchmarking (RB) can be used to estimate the fidelity of Clifford operations in a manner that is robust against preparation and measurement errors -- thus allowing for a more accurate and relevant characterization of the average error in Clifford gates compared to standard tomography protocols. Interleaved RB (IRB) extends this result to the extraction of error rates for individual Clifford gates. In this talk we will show how to combine multiple IRB experiments to extract all information about the unital part of any trace preserving quantum process. Consequently, one can compute the average fidelity to any unitary, not just the Clifford group, with tighter bounds than IRB. Moreover, the additional information can be used to design improvements in control. MS, BJ, CR and TO acknowledge support from IARPA under contract W911NF-10-1-0324.

Linear discriminant analysis with misallocation in training samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chhikara, R. (Principal Investigator); Mckeon, J.

1982-01-01

Linear discriminant analysis for a two-class case is studied in the presence of misallocation in training samples. A general appraoch to modeling of mislocation is formulated, and the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the mixture distributions are derived. The asymptotic distribution of the discriminant boundary is obtained and the asymptotic first two moments of the two types of error rate given. Certain numerical results for the error rates are presented by considering the random and two non-random misallocation models. It is shown that when the allocation procedure for training samples is objectively formulated, the effect of misallocation on the error rates of the Bayes linear discriminant rule can almost be eliminated. If, however, this is not possible, the use of Fisher rule may be preferred over the Bayes rule.

Reducing false negatives in clinical practice: the role of neural network technology.

PubMed

Mango, L J

1996-10-01

The fact that some cervical smears result in false-negative findings is an unavoidable and unpredictable consequence of the conventional (manual microscopic) method of screening. Errors in the detection and interpretation of abnormality are cited as leading causes of false-negative cytology findings; these are random errors that are not known to correlate with any patient risk factor, which makes the false-negative findings a "silent" threat that is difficult to prevent. Described by many as a labor-intensive procedure, the microscopic evaluation of a cervical smear involves a detailed search among hundreds of thousands of cells on each smear for a possible few that may indicate abnormality. Investigations into causes of false-negative findings preceding the discovery of high-grade lesions found that many smears had very few diagnostic cells that were often very small in size. These small cells were initially overlooked or misinterpreted and repeatedly missed on rescreening. PAPNET testing is designed to supplement conventional screening by detecting abnormal cells that initially may have been missed by microscopic examination. This interactive system uses neural networks, a type of artificial intelligence well suited for pattern recognition, to automate the arduous search for abnormality. The instrument focuses the review of suspicious cells by a trained cytologist. Clinical studies indicate that PAPNET testing is sensitive to abnormality typically missed by conventional screening and that its use as a supplemental test improves the accuracy of screening.

An integrated method for atherosclerotic carotid plaque segmentation in ultrasound image.

PubMed

Qian, Chunjun; Yang, Xiaoping

2018-01-01

Carotid artery atherosclerosis is an important cause of stroke. Ultrasound imaging has been widely used in the diagnosis of atherosclerosis. Therefore, segmenting atherosclerotic carotid plaque in ultrasound image is an important task. Accurate plaque segmentation is helpful for the measurement of carotid plaque burden. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a novel learning-based integrated framework for plaque segmentation. In our study, four different classification algorithms, along with the auto-context iterative algorithm, were employed to effectively integrate features from ultrasound images and later also the iteratively estimated and refined probability maps together for pixel-wise classification. The four classification algorithms were support vector machine with linear kernel, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, AdaBoost and random forest. The plaque segmentation was implemented in the generated probability map. The performance of the four different learning-based plaque segmentation methods was tested on 29 B-mode ultrasound images. The evaluation indices for our proposed methods were consisted of sensitivity, specificity, Dice similarity coefficient, overlap index, error of area, absolute error of area, point-to-point distance, and Hausdorff point-to-point distance, along with the area under the ROC curve. The segmentation method integrated the random forest and an auto-context model obtained the best results (sensitivity 80.4 ± 8.4%, specificity 96.5 ± 2.0%, Dice similarity coefficient 81.0 ± 4.1%, overlap index 68.3 ± 5.8%, error of area -1.02 ± 18.3%, absolute error of area 14.7 ± 10.9%, point-to-point distance 0.34 ± 0.10 mm, Hausdorff point-to-point distance 1.75 ± 1.02 mm, and area under the ROC curve 0.897), which were almost the best, compared with that from the existed methods. Our proposed learning-based integrated framework investigated in this study could be useful for atherosclerotic carotid plaque segmentation, which will be helpful for the measurement of carotid plaque burden. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constrained motion estimation-based error resilient coding for HEVC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Weihan; Zhang, Yongfei; Li, Bo

2018-04-01

Unreliable communication channels might lead to packet losses and bit errors in the videos transmitted through it, which will cause severe video quality degradation. This is even worse for HEVC since more advanced and powerful motion estimation methods are introduced to further remove the inter-frame dependency and thus improve the coding efficiency. Once a Motion Vector (MV) is lost or corrupted, it will cause distortion in the decoded frame. More importantly, due to motion compensation, the error will propagate along the motion prediction path, accumulate over time, and significantly degrade the overall video presentation quality. To address this problem, we study the problem of encoder-sider error resilient coding for HEVC and propose a constrained motion estimation scheme to mitigate the problem of error propagation to subsequent frames. The approach is achieved by cutting off MV dependencies and limiting the block regions which are predicted by temporal motion vector. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress the error propagation caused by bit errors of motion vector and can improve the robustness of the stream in the bit error channels. When the bit error probability is 10-5, an increase of the decoded video quality (PSNR) by up to1.310dB and on average 0.762 dB can be achieved, compared to the reference HEVC.

Errors in veterinary practice: preliminary lessons for building better veterinary teams.

PubMed

Kinnison, T; Guile, D; May, S A

2015-11-14

Case studies in two typical UK veterinary practices were undertaken to explore teamwork, including interprofessional working. Each study involved one week of whole team observation based on practice locations (reception, operating theatre), one week of shadowing six focus individuals (veterinary surgeons, veterinary nurses and administrators) and a final week consisting of semistructured interviews regarding teamwork. Errors emerged as a finding of the study. The definition of errors was inclusive, pertaining to inputs or omitted actions with potential adverse outcomes for patients, clients or the practice. The 40 identified instances could be grouped into clinical errors (dosing/drugs, surgical preparation, lack of follow-up), lost item errors, and most frequently, communication errors (records, procedures, missing face-to-face communication, mistakes within face-to-face communication). The qualitative nature of the study allowed the underlying cause of the errors to be explored. In addition to some individual mistakes, system faults were identified as a major cause of errors. Observed examples and interviews demonstrated several challenges to interprofessional teamworking which may cause errors, including: lack of time, part-time staff leading to frequent handovers, branch differences and individual veterinary surgeon work preferences. Lessons are drawn for building better veterinary teams and implications for Disciplinary Proceedings considered. British Veterinary Association.

[Allocation of attentional resource and monitoring processes under rapid serial visual presentation].

PubMed

Nishiura, K

1998-08-01

With the use of rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP), the present study investigated the cause of target intrusion errors and functioning of monitoring processes. Eighteen students participated in Experiment 1, and 24 in Experiment 2. In Experiment 1, different target intrusion errors were found depending on different kinds of letters --romaji, hiragana, and kanji. In Experiment 2, stimulus set size and context information were manipulated in an attempt to explore the cause of post-target intrusion errors. Results showed that as stimulus set size increased, the post-target intrusion errors also increased, but contextual information did not affect the errors. Results concerning mean report probability indicated that increased allocation of attentional resource to response-defining dimension was the cause of the errors. In addition, results concerning confidence rating showed that monitoring of temporal and contextual information was extremely accurate, but it was not so for stimulus information. These results suggest that attentional resource is different from monitoring resource.

Paediatric in-patient prescribing errors in Malaysia: a cross-sectional multicentre study.

PubMed

Khoo, Teik Beng; Tan, Jing Wen; Ng, Hoong Phak; Choo, Chong Ming; Bt Abdul Shukor, Intan Nor Chahaya; Teh, Siao Hean

2017-06-01

Background There is a lack of large comprehensive studies in developing countries on paediatric in-patient prescribing errors in different settings. Objectives To determine the characteristics of in-patient prescribing errors among paediatric patients. Setting General paediatric wards, neonatal intensive care units and paediatric intensive care units in government hospitals in Malaysia. Methods This is a cross-sectional multicentre study involving 17 participating hospitals. Drug charts were reviewed in each ward to identify the prescribing errors. All prescribing errors identified were further assessed for their potential clinical consequences, likely causes and contributing factors. Main outcome measures Incidence, types, potential clinical consequences, causes and contributing factors of the prescribing errors. Results The overall prescribing error rate was 9.2% out of 17,889 prescribed medications. There was no significant difference in the prescribing error rates between different types of hospitals or wards. The use of electronic prescribing had a higher prescribing error rate than manual prescribing (16.9 vs 8.2%, p < 0.05). Twenty eight (1.7%) prescribing errors were deemed to have serious potential clinical consequences and 2 (0.1%) were judged to be potentially fatal. Most of the errors were attributed to human factors, i.e. performance or knowledge deficit. The most common contributing factors were due to lack of supervision or of knowledge. Conclusions Although electronic prescribing may potentially improve safety, it may conversely cause prescribing errors due to suboptimal interfaces and cumbersome work processes. Junior doctors need specific training in paediatric prescribing and close supervision to reduce prescribing errors in paediatric in-patients.

Analyzing Software Errors in Safety-Critical Embedded Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutz, Robyn R.

1994-01-01

This paper analyzes the root causes of safty-related software faults identified as potentially hazardous to the system are distributed somewhat differently over the set of possible error causes than non-safety-related software faults.

Estimating pole/zero errors in GSN-IRIS/USGS network calibration metadata

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, A.T.; Hutt, C.R.; Aster, R.; Bolton, H.; Gee, L.S.; Storm, T.

2012-01-01

Mapping the digital record of a seismograph into true ground motion requires the correction of the data by some description of the instrument's response. For the Global Seismographic Network (Butler et al., 2004), as well as many other networks, this instrument response is represented as a Laplace domain pole–zero model and published in the Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data (SEED) format. This Laplace representation assumes that the seismometer behaves as a linear system, with any abrupt changes described adequately via multiple time-invariant epochs. The SEED format allows for published instrument response errors as well, but these typically have not been estimated or provided to users. We present an iterative three-step method to estimate the instrument response parameters (poles and zeros) and their associated errors using random calibration signals. First, we solve a coarse nonlinear inverse problem using a least-squares grid search to yield a first approximation to the solution. This approach reduces the likelihood of poorly estimated parameters (a local-minimum solution) caused by noise in the calibration records and enhances algorithm convergence. Second, we iteratively solve a nonlinear parameter estimation problem to obtain the least-squares best-fit Laplace pole–zero–gain model. Third, by applying the central limit theorem, we estimate the errors in this pole–zero model by solving the inverse problem at each frequency in a two-thirds octave band centered at each best-fit pole–zero frequency. This procedure yields error estimates of the 99% confidence interval. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a number of recent Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology/United States Geological Survey (IRIS/USGS) network calibrations (network code IU).

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST)

PubMed Central

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2013-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements. PMID:24143037

Understanding and comparisons of different sampling approaches for the Fourier Amplitudes Sensitivity Test (FAST).

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Gertner, George

2011-01-01

Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) is one of the most popular uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. It uses a periodic sampling approach and a Fourier transformation to decompose the variance of a model output into partial variances contributed by different model parameters. Until now, the FAST analysis is mainly confined to the estimation of partial variances contributed by the main effects of model parameters, but does not allow for those contributed by specific interactions among parameters. In this paper, we theoretically show that FAST analysis can be used to estimate partial variances contributed by both main effects and interaction effects of model parameters using different sampling approaches (i.e., traditional search-curve based sampling, simple random sampling and random balance design sampling). We also analytically calculate the potential errors and biases in the estimation of partial variances. Hypothesis tests are constructed to reduce the effect of sampling errors on the estimation of partial variances. Our results show that compared to simple random sampling and random balance design sampling, sensitivity indices (ratios of partial variances to variance of a specific model output) estimated by search-curve based sampling generally have higher precision but larger underestimations. Compared to simple random sampling, random balance design sampling generally provides higher estimation precision for partial variances contributed by the main effects of parameters. The theoretical derivation of partial variances contributed by higher-order interactions and the calculation of their corresponding estimation errors in different sampling schemes can help us better understand the FAST method and provide a fundamental basis for FAST applications and further improvements.

Comparison of direct and heterodyne detection optical intersatellite communication links

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, C. C.; Gardner, C. S.

1987-01-01

The performance of direct and heterodyne detection optical intersatellite communication links are evaluated and compared. It is shown that the performance of optical links is very sensitive to the pointing and tracking errors at the transmitter and receiver. In the presence of random pointing and tracking errors, optimal antenna gains exist that will minimize the required transmitter power. In addition to limiting the antenna gains, random pointing and tracking errors also impose a power penalty in the link budget. This power penalty is between 1.6 to 3 dB for a direct detection QPPM link, and 3 to 5 dB for a heterodyne QFSK system. For the heterodyne systems, the carrier phase noise presents another major factor of performance degradation that must be considered. In contrast, the loss due to synchronization error is small. The link budgets for direct and heterodyne detection systems are evaluated. It is shown that, for systems with large pointing and tracking errors, the link budget is dominated by the spatial tracking error, and the direct detection system shows a superior performance because it is less sensitive to the spatial tracking error. On the other hand, for systems with small pointing and tracking jitters, the antenna gains are in general limited by the launch cost, and suboptimal antenna gains are often used in practice. In which case, the heterodyne system has a slightly higher power margin because of higher receiver sensitivity.

Slow Learner Errors Analysis in Solving Fractions Problems in Inclusive Junior High School Class

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novitasari, N.; Lukito, A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

A slow learner whose IQ is between 71 and 89 will have difficulties in solving mathematics problems that often lead to errors. The errors could be analyzed to where the errors may occur and its type. This research is qualitative descriptive which aims to describe the locations, types, and causes of slow learner errors in the inclusive junior high school class in solving the fraction problem. The subject of this research is one slow learner of seventh-grade student which was selected through direct observation by the researcher and through discussion with mathematics teacher and special tutor which handles the slow learner students. Data collection methods used in this study are written tasks and semistructured interviews. The collected data was analyzed by Newman’s Error Analysis (NEA). Results show that there are four locations of errors, namely comprehension, transformation, process skills, and encoding errors. There are four types of errors, such as concept, principle, algorithm, and counting errors. The results of this error analysis will help teachers to identify the causes of the errors made by the slow learner.

Estimating random errors due to shot noise in backscatter lidar observations.

PubMed

Liu, Zhaoyan; Hunt, William; Vaughan, Mark; Hostetler, Chris; McGill, Matthew; Powell, Kathleen; Winker, David; Hu, Yongxiang

2006-06-20

We discuss the estimation of random errors due to shot noise in backscatter lidar observations that use either photomultiplier tube (PMT) or avalanche photodiode (APD) detectors. The statistical characteristics of photodetection are reviewed, and photon count distributions of solar background signals and laser backscatter signals are examined using airborne lidar observations at 532 nm using a photon-counting mode APD. Both distributions appear to be Poisson, indicating that the arrival at the photodetector of photons for these signals is a Poisson stochastic process. For Poisson- distributed signals, a proportional, one-to-one relationship is known to exist between the mean of a distribution and its variance. Although the multiplied photocurrent no longer follows a strict Poisson distribution in analog-mode APD and PMT detectors, the proportionality still exists between the mean and the variance of the multiplied photocurrent. We make use of this relationship by introducing the noise scale factor (NSF), which quantifies the constant of proportionality that exists between the root mean square of the random noise in a measurement and the square root of the mean signal. Using the NSF to estimate random errors in lidar measurements due to shot noise provides a significant advantage over the conventional error estimation techniques, in that with the NSF, uncertainties can be reliably calculated from or for a single data sample. Methods for evaluating the NSF are presented. Algorithms to compute the NSF are developed for the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations lidar and tested using data from the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment.

Estimating Random Errors Due to Shot Noise in Backscatter Lidar Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhaoyan; Hunt, William; Vaughan, Mark A.; Hostetler, Chris A.; McGill, Matthew J.; Powell, Kathy; Winker, David M.; Hu, Yongxiang

2006-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of random errors due to shot noise in backscatter lidar observations that use either photomultiplier tube (PMT) or avalanche photodiode (APD) detectors. The statistical characteristics of photodetection are reviewed, and photon count distributions of solar background signals and laser backscatter signals are examined using airborne lidar observations at 532 nm using a photon-counting mode APD. Both distributions appear to be Poisson, indicating that the arrival at the photodetector of photons for these signals is a Poisson stochastic process. For Poisson-distributed signals, a proportional, one-to-one relationship is known to exist between the mean of a distribution and its variance. Although the multiplied photocurrent no longer follows a strict Poisson distribution in analog-mode APD and PMT detectors, the proportionality still exists between the mean and the variance of the multiplied photocurrent. We make use of this relationship by introducing the noise scale factor (NSF), which quantifies the constant of proportionality that exists between the root-mean-square of the random noise in a measurement and the square root of the mean signal. Using the NSF to estimate random errors in lidar measurements due to shot noise provides a significant advantage over the conventional error estimation techniques, in that with the NSF uncertainties can be reliably calculated from/for a single data sample. Methods for evaluating the NSF are presented. Algorithms to compute the NSF are developed for the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar and tested using data from the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). OCIS Codes:

A proposed method to investigate reliability throughout a questionnaire.

PubMed

Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Norekvål, Tone M; Ulvik, Bjørg; Nygård, Ottar; Pripp, Are H

2011-10-05

Questionnaires are used extensively in medical and health care research and depend on validity and reliability. However, participants may differ in interest and awareness throughout long questionnaires, which can affect reliability of their answers. A method is proposed for "screening" of systematic change in random error, which could assess changed reliability of answers. A simulation study was conducted to explore whether systematic change in reliability, expressed as changed random error, could be assessed using unsupervised classification of subjects by cluster analysis (CA) and estimation of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The method was also applied on a clinical dataset from 753 cardiac patients using the Jalowiec Coping Scale. The simulation study showed a relationship between the systematic change in random error throughout a questionnaire and the slope between the estimated ICC for subjects classified by CA and successive items in a questionnaire. This slope was proposed as an awareness measure--to assessing if respondents provide only a random answer or one based on a substantial cognitive effort. Scales from different factor structures of Jalowiec Coping Scale had different effect on this awareness measure. Even though assumptions in the simulation study might be limited compared to real datasets, the approach is promising for assessing systematic change in reliability throughout long questionnaires. Results from a clinical dataset indicated that the awareness measure differed between scales.

Radar error statistics for the space shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lear, W. M.

1979-01-01

Radar error statistics of C-band and S-band that are recommended for use with the groundtracking programs to process space shuttle tracking data are presented. The statistics are divided into two parts: bias error statistics, using the subscript B, and high frequency error statistics, using the subscript q. Bias errors may be slowly varying to constant. High frequency random errors (noise) are rapidly varying and may or may not be correlated from sample to sample. Bias errors were mainly due to hardware defects and to errors in correction for atmospheric refraction effects. High frequency noise was mainly due to hardware and due to atmospheric scintillation. Three types of atmospheric scintillation were identified: horizontal, vertical, and line of sight. This was the first time that horizontal and line of sight scintillations were identified.

An evaluation of satellite-derived humidity and its relationship to convective development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, Henry E.

1993-01-01

An aircraft prototype of the High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) was flown over Tennessee and northern Alabama during summer 1986. The HIS temperature and dewpoint soundings were examined on two flight days to determine their error characteristics and utility in mesoscale analyses. Random errors were calculated from structure functions while total errors were obtained by pairing the HIS soundings with radiosonde-derived profiles. Random temperature errors were found to be less than 1 C at most levels, but random dewpoint errors ranged from 1 to 5 C. Total errors of both parameters were considerably greater, with dewpoint errors especially large on the day having a pronounced subsidence inversion. Cumulus cloud cover on 15 June limited HIS mesoscale analyses on that day. Previously undetected clouds were found in many HIS fields of view, and these probably produced the low-level horizontal temperature and dewpoint variations observed in the retrievals. HIS dewpoints at 300 mb indicated a strong moisture gradient that was confirmed by GOES 6.7-micron imagery. HIS mesoscale analyses on 19 June revealed a tongue of humid air stretching across the study area. The moist region was confirmed by radiosonde data and imagery from the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS). Convective temperatures derived from HIS retrievals helped explain the cloud formation that occurred after the HIS overflights. Crude estimates of Bowen ratio were obtained from HIS data using a mixing-line approach. Values indicated that areas of large sensible heat flux were the areas of first cloud development. These locations were also suggested by GOES visible and infrared imagery. The HIS retrievals indicated that areas of thunderstorm formation were regions of greatest instability. Local landscape variability and atmospheric temperature and humidity fluctuations were found to be important factors in producing the cumulus clouds on 19 June. HIS soundings were capable of detecting some of this variability. The authors were impressed by HIS's performance on the two study days.

Fast decoding techniques for extended single-and-double-error-correcting Reed Solomon codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Deng, H.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A problem in designing semiconductor memories is to provide some measure of error control without requiring excessive coding overhead or decoding time. For example, some 256K-bit dynamic random access memories are organized as 32K x 8 bit-bytes. Byte-oriented codes such as Reed Solomon (RS) codes provide efficient low overhead error control for such memories. However, the standard iterative algorithm for decoding RS codes is too slow for these applications. Some special high speed decoding techniques for extended single and double error correcting RS codes. These techniques are designed to find the error locations and the error values directly from the syndrome without having to form the error locator polynomial and solve for its roots.

Retrospective analysis of refractive errors in children with vision impairment.

PubMed

Du, Jojo W; Schmid, Katrina L; Bevan, Jennifer D; Frater, Karen M; Ollett, Rhondelle; Hein, Bronwyn

2005-09-01

Emmetropization is the reduction in neonatal refractive errors that occurs after birth. Ocular disease may affect this process. We aimed to determine the relative frequency of ocular conditions causing vision impairment in the pediatric population and characterize the refractive anomalies present. We also compared the causes of vision impairment in children today to those between 1974 and 1981. Causes of vision impairment and refractive data of 872 children attending a pediatric low-vision clinic from 1985 to 2002 were retrospectively collated. As a result of associated impairments, refractive data were not available for 59 children. An analysis was made of the causes of vision impairment, the distribution of refractive errors in children with vision impairment, and the average type of refractive error for the most commonly seen conditions. We found that cortical or cerebral vision impairment (CVI) was the most common condition causing vision impairment, accounting for 27.6% of cases. This was followed by albinism (10.6%), retinopathy of prematurity (ROP; 7.0%), optic atrophy (6.2%), and optic nerve hypoplasia (5.3%). Vision impairment was associated with ametropia; fewer than 25% of the children had refractive errors < or = +/-1 D. The refractive error frequency plots (for 0 to 2-, 6 to 8-, and 12 to 14-year age bands) had a Gaussian distribution indicating that the emmetropization process was abnormal. The mean spherical equivalent refractive error of the children (n = 813) was +0.78 +/- 6.00 D with 0.94 +/- 1.24 D of astigmatism and 0.92 +/- 2.15 D of anisometropia. Most conditions causing vision impairment such as albinism were associated with low amounts of hyperopia. Moderate myopia was observed in children with ROP. The relative frequency of ocular conditions causing vision impairment in children has changed since the 1970s. Children with vision impairment often have an associated ametropia suggesting that the emmetropization system is also impaired.

A Test Methodology for Determining Space-Readiness of Xilinx SRAM-Based FPGA Designs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, Heather M; Graham, Paul S; Morgan, Keith S

2008-01-01

Using reconfigurable, static random-access memory (SRAM) based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) for space-based computation has been an exciting area of research for the past decade. Since both the circuit and the circuit's state is stored in radiation-tolerant memory, both could be alterd by the harsh space radiation environment. Both the circuit and the circuit's state can be prote cted by triple-moduler redundancy (TMR), but applying TMR to FPGA user designs is often an error-prone process. Faulty application of TMR could cause the FPGA user circuit to output incorrect data. This paper will describe a three-tiered methodology for testing FPGA usermore » designs for space-readiness. We will describe the standard approach to testing FPGA user designs using a particle accelerator, as well as two methods using fault injection and a modeling tool. While accelerator testing is the current 'gold standard' for pre-launch testing, we believe the use of fault injection and modeling tools allows for easy, cheap and uniform access for discovering errors early in the design process.« less

The influence of SO4 and NO3 to the acidity (pH) of rainwater using minimum variance quadratic unbiased estimation (MIVQUE) and maximum likelihood methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilla, Shintia Ulfa; Andriyana, Yudhie; Sudartianto

2017-03-01

Acid rain causes many bad effects in life. It is formed by two strong acids, sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric acid (HNO3), where sulfuric acid is derived from SO2 and nitric acid from NOx {x=1,2}. The purpose of the research is to find out the influence of So4 and NO3 levels contained in the rain to the acidity (pH) of rainwater. The data are incomplete panel data with two-way error component model. The panel data is a collection of some of the observations that observed from time to time. It is said incomplete if each individual has a different amount of observation. The model used in this research is in the form of random effects model (REM). Minimum variance quadratic unbiased estimation (MIVQUE) is used to estimate the variance error components, while maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. As a result, we obtain the following model: Ŷ* = 0.41276446 - 0.00107302X1 + 0.00215470X2.

Kinetic energy budget during strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Scoggins, J. R.

1980-01-01

Kinetic energy budgets are computed during a cold air outbreak in association with strong jet stream activity over the eastern United States. The period is characterized by large generation of kinetic energy due to cross-contour flow. Horizontal export and dissipation of energy to subgrid scales of motion constitute the important energy sinks. Rawinsonde data at 3 and 6 h intervals during a 36 h period are used in the analysis and reveal that energy fluctuations on a time scale of less than 12 h are generally small even though the overall energy balance does change considerably during the period in conjunction with an upper level trough which moves through the region. An error analysis of the energy budget terms suggests that this major change in the budget is not due to random errors in the input data but is caused by the changing synoptic situation. The study illustrates the need to consider the time and space scales of associated weather phenomena in interpreting energy budgets obtained through use of higher frequency data.

Error regions in quantum state tomography: computational complexity caused by geometry of quantum states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suess, Daniel; Rudnicki, Łukasz; maciel, Thiago O.; Gross, David

2017-09-01

The outcomes of quantum mechanical measurements are inherently random. It is therefore necessary to develop stringent methods for quantifying the degree of statistical uncertainty about the results of quantum experiments. For the particularly relevant task of quantum state tomography, it has been shown that a significant reduction in uncertainty can be achieved by taking the positivity of quantum states into account. However—the large number of partial results and heuristics notwithstanding—no efficient general algorithm is known that produces an optimal uncertainty region from experimental data, while making use of the prior constraint of positivity. Here, we provide a precise formulation of this problem and show that the general case is NP-hard. Our result leaves room for the existence of efficient approximate solutions, and therefore does not in itself imply that the practical task of quantum uncertainty quantification is intractable. However, it does show that there exists a non-trivial trade-off between optimality and computational efficiency for error regions. We prove two versions of the result: one for frequentist and one for Bayesian statistics.

Model parameter estimation approach based on incremental analysis for lithium-ion batteries without using open circuit voltage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hongjie; Yuan, Shifei; Zhang, Xi; Yin, Chengliang; Ma, Xuerui

2015-08-01

To improve the suitability of lithium-ion battery model under varying scenarios, such as fluctuating temperature and SoC variation, dynamic model with parameters updated realtime should be developed. In this paper, an incremental analysis-based auto regressive exogenous (I-ARX) modeling method is proposed to eliminate the modeling error caused by the OCV effect and improve the accuracy of parameter estimation. Then, its numerical stability, modeling error, and parametric sensitivity are analyzed at different sampling rates (0.02, 0.1, 0.5 and 1 s). To identify the model parameters recursively, a bias-correction recursive least squares (CRLS) algorithm is applied. Finally, the pseudo random binary sequence (PRBS) and urban dynamic driving sequences (UDDSs) profiles are performed to verify the realtime performance and robustness of the newly proposed model and algorithm. Different sampling rates (1 Hz and 10 Hz) and multiple temperature points (5, 25, and 45 °C) are covered in our experiments. The experimental and simulation results indicate that the proposed I-ARX model can present high accuracy and suitability for parameter identification without using open circuit voltage.

ATC operational error analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-01-01

The primary causes of operational errors are discussed and the effects of these errors on an ATC system's performance are described. No attempt is made to specify possible error models for the spectrum of blunders that can occur although previous res...

Stable estimate of primary OC/EC ratios in the EC tracer method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Shao-Hang

In fine particulate matter studies, the primary OC/EC ratio plays an important role in estimating the secondary organic aerosol contribution to PM2.5 concentrations using the EC tracer method. In this study, numerical experiments are carried out to test and compare various statistical techniques in the estimation of primary OC/EC ratios. The influence of random measurement errors in both primary OC and EC measurements on the estimation of the expected primary OC/EC ratios is examined. It is found that random measurement errors in EC generally create an underestimation of the slope and an overestimation of the intercept of the ordinary least-squares regression line. The Deming regression analysis performs much better than the ordinary regression, but it tends to overcorrect the problem by slightly overestimating the slope and underestimating the intercept. Averaging the ratios directly is usually undesirable because the average is strongly influenced by unrealistically high values of OC/EC ratios resulting from random measurement errors at low EC concentrations. The errors generally result in a skewed distribution of the OC/EC ratios even if the parent distributions of OC and EC are close to normal. When measured OC contains a significant amount of non-combustion OC Deming regression is a much better tool and should be used to estimate both the primary OC/EC ratio and the non-combustion OC. However, if the non-combustion OC is negligibly small the best and most robust estimator of the OC/EC ratio turns out to be the simple ratio of the OC and EC averages. It not only reduces random errors by averaging individual variables separately but also acts as a weighted average of ratios to minimize the influence of unrealistically high OC/EC ratios created by measurement errors at low EC concentrations. The median of OC/EC ratios ranks a close second, and the geometric mean of ratios ranks third. This is because their estimations are insensitive to questionable extreme values. A real world example is given using the ambient data collected from an Atlanta STN site during the winter of 2001-2002.

Decorrelation of the true and estimated classifier errors in high-dimensional settings.

PubMed

Hanczar, Blaise; Hua, Jianping; Dougherty, Edward R

2007-01-01

The aim of many microarray experiments is to build discriminatory diagnosis and prognosis models. Given the huge number of features and the small number of examples, model validity which refers to the precision of error estimation is a critical issue. Previous studies have addressed this issue via the deviation distribution (estimated error minus true error), in particular, the deterioration of cross-validation precision in high-dimensional settings where feature selection is used to mitigate the peaking phenomenon (overfitting). Because classifier design is based upon random samples, both the true and estimated errors are sample-dependent random variables, and one would expect a loss of precision if the estimated and true errors are not well correlated, so that natural questions arise as to the degree of correlation and the manner in which lack of correlation impacts error estimation. We demonstrate the effect of correlation on error precision via a decomposition of the variance of the deviation distribution, observe that the correlation is often severely decreased in high-dimensional settings, and show that the effect of high dimensionality on error estimation tends to result more from its decorrelating effects than from its impact on the variance of the estimated error. We consider the correlation between the true and estimated errors under different experimental conditions using both synthetic and real data, several feature-selection methods, different classification rules, and three error estimators commonly used (leave-one-out cross-validation, k-fold cross-validation, and .632 bootstrap). Moreover, three scenarios are considered: (1) feature selection, (2) known-feature set, and (3) all features. Only the first is of practical interest; however, the other two are needed for comparison purposes. We will observe that the true and estimated errors tend to be much more correlated in the case of a known feature set than with either feature selection or using all features, with the better correlation between the latter two showing no general trend, but differing for different models.

Why Are People Bad at Detecting Randomness? A Statistical Argument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Joseph J.; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Errors in detecting randomness are often explained in terms of biases and misconceptions. We propose and provide evidence for an account that characterizes the contribution of the inherent statistical difficulty of the task. Our account is based on a Bayesian statistical analysis, focusing on the fact that a random process is a special case of…

Quality of death notification forms in North West Bank/Palestine: a descriptive study.

PubMed

Qaddumi, Jamal A S; Nazzal, Zaher; Yacoup, Allam R S; Mansour, Mahmoud

2017-04-11

The death notification forms (DNFs) are important documents. Thus, inability to fill it properly by physicians will affect the national mortality report and, consequently, the evidence-based decision making. The errors in filling DNFs are common all over the world and are different in types and causes. We aimed to evaluate the quality of DNFs in terms of completeness and types of errors in the cause of death section. A descriptive study was conducted to review 2707 DNFs in North West Bank/Palestine during the year 2012 using data abstraction sheets. SPSS 17.0 was used to show the frequency of major and minor errors committed in filling the DNFs. Surprisingly, only 1% of the examined DNFs had their cause of death section filled completely correct. The immediate cause of death was correctly identified in 5.9% of all DNFs and the underlying cause of death was correctly reported in 55.4% of them. The sequence was incorrect in 41.5% of the DNFs. The most frequently documented minor error was "Not writing Time intervals" error (97.0%). Almost all DNFs contained at least one minor or major error. This high percentage of errors may affect the mortality and morbidity statistics, public health research and the process of providing evidence for health policy. Training workshops on DNF completion for newly recruited employees and at the beginning of the residency program are recommended on a regular basis. As well, we recommend reviewing the national DNFs to simplify it and make it consistent with updated evidence-based guidelines and recommendation.

Rapid assessment of avoidable blindness in Papua New Guinea: a nationwide survey.

PubMed

Lee, Ling; D'Esposito, Fabrizio; Garap, Jambi; Wabulembo, Geoffrey; Koim, Samuel Peter; Keys, Drew; Cama, Anaseini T; Limburg, Hans; Burnett, Anthea

2018-05-23

To estimate the prevalence and main causes of blindness and vision impairment in people aged 50 years and older in Papua New Guinea (PNG). National cross-sectional population-based survey in National Capital District (NCD), Highlands, Coastal and Islands regions. Adults aged 50 years and above were recruited from 100 randomly selected clusters. Each participant underwent monocular presenting and pinhole visual acuity (VA) assessment and lens examination. Those with pinhole VA<6/12 in either eye had a dilated fundus examination to determine the primary cause of reduced vision. Those with obvious lens opacity were interviewed on barriers to cataract surgery. A total of 4818 adults were examined. The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted prevalence of blindness (VA <3/60), severe vision impairment (SVI, VA <6/60 but ≥3/60), moderate vision impairment (MVI, VA <6/18 but ≥6/60) and early vision impairment (EVI, VA <6/12 but ≥6/18) was 5.6% (95% CI 4.9% to 6.3%), 2.9% (95% CI 2.5% to 3.4%), 10.9% (95% CI 9.9% to 11.9%) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.6% to 8.0%), respectively. The main cause of blindness, SVI and MVI was cataract, while uncorrected refractive error was the main cause of EVI. A significantly higher prevalence of blindness, SVI and MVI occurred in the Highlands compared with NCD. Across all regions, women had lower cataract surgical coverage and spectacle coverage than men. PNG has one of the highest reported prevalence of blindness globally. Cataract and uncorrected refractive error are the main causes, suggesting a need for increased accessible services with improved resources and advocacy for enhancing eye health literacy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Porous plug for reducing orifice induced pressure error in airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plentovich, Elizabeth B. (Inventor); Gloss, Blair B. (Inventor); Eves, John W. (Inventor); Stack, John P. (Inventor)

1988-01-01

A porous plug is provided for the reduction or elimination of positive error caused by the orifice during static pressure measurements of airfoils. The porous plug is press fitted into the orifice, thereby preventing the error caused either by fluid flow turning into the exposed orifice or by the fluid flow stagnating at the downstream edge of the orifice. In addition, the porous plug is made flush with the outer surface of the airfoil, by filing and polishing, to provide a smooth surface which alleviates the error caused by imperfections in the orifice. The porous plug is preferably made of sintered metal, which allows air to pass through the pores, so that the static pressure measurements can be made by remote transducers.

Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models

DOE PAGES

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.; ...

2014-06-25

Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methodsmore » for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. Finally, as a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure.« less

Influence of wheelchair front caster wheel on reverse directional stability.

PubMed

Guo, Songfeng; Cooper, Rory A; Corfman, Tom; Ding, Dan; Grindle, Garrett

2003-01-01

The purpose of this research was to study directional stability during reversing of rear-wheel drive, electric powered wheelchairs (EPW) under different initial front caster orientations. Specifically, the weight distribution differences caused by certain initial caster orientations were examined as a possible mechanism for causing directional instability that could lead to accidents. Directional stability was quantified by measuring the drive direction error of the EPW by a motion analysis system. The ground reaction forces were collected to determine the load on the front casters, as well as back-emf data to attain the speed of the motors. The drive direction error was found to be different for various initial caster orientations. Drive direction error was greatest when both casters were oriented 90 degrees to the left or right, and least when both casters were oriented forward. The results show that drive direction error corresponds to the loading difference on the casters. The data indicates that loading differences may cause asymmetric drag on the casters, which in turn causes unbalanced torque load on the motors. This leads to a difference in motor speed and drive direction error.

Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Measurement Error Models

PubMed Central

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.; Carroll, Raymond J.

2014-01-01

Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Models (MIMIC) are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times however when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model, (2) to develop likelihood based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model, (3) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. PMID:24962535

Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.

Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methodsmore » for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. Finally, as a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure.« less

POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF ADJUSTING RANDOMIZED TRIAL DATA FOR ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS: A DEMONSTRATION FROM THE ASCUS-LSIL TRIAGE STUDY

PubMed Central

Campos, Nicole G.; Castle, Philip E.; Schiffman, Mark; Kim, Jane J.

2013-01-01

Background Although the randomized controlled trial (RCT) is widely considered the most reliable method for evaluation of health care interventions, challenges to both internal and external validity exist. Thus, the efficacy of an intervention in a trial setting does not necessarily represent the real-world performance that decision makers seek to inform comparative effectiveness studies and economic evaluations. Methods Using data from the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS), we performed a simplified economic evaluation of age-based management strategies to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) among women who were referred to the study with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL). We used data from the trial itself to adjust for 1) potential lead time bias and random error that led to variation in the observed prevalence of CIN3 by study arm, and 2) potential ascertainment bias among providers in the most aggressive management arm. Results We found that using unadjusted RCT data may result in counterintuitive cost-effectiveness results when random error and/or bias are present. Following adjustment, the rank order of management strategies changed for two of the three age groups we considered. Conclusion Decision analysts need to examine study design, available trial data and cost-effectiveness results closely in order to detect evidence of potential bias. Adjustment for random error and bias in RCTs may yield different policy conclusions relative to unadjusted trial data. PMID:22147881

Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

PubMed

Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-07-20

This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

Electron Beam Propagation Through a Magnetic Wiggler with Random Field Errors

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-08-21

Another quantity of interest is the vector potential 6.A,.(:) associated with the field error 6B,,,(:). Defining the normalized vector potentials ba = ebA...then follows that the correlation of the normalized vector potential errors is given by 1 . 12 (-a.(zj)a.,(z2)) = a,k,, dz’ , dz" (bBE(z’)bB , (z")) a2...Throughout the following, terms of order O(z:/z) will be neglected. Similarly, for the y-component of the normalized vector potential errors, one

The association between frequency of self-reported medical errors and anesthesia trainee supervision: a survey of United States anesthesiology residents-in-training.

PubMed

De Oliveira, Gildasio S; Rahmani, Rod; Fitzgerald, Paul C; Chang, Ray; McCarthy, Robert J

2013-04-01

Poor supervision of physician trainees can be detrimental not only to resident education but also to patient care and safety. Inadequate supervision has been associated with more frequent deaths of patients under the care of junior residents. We hypothesized that residents reporting more medical errors would also report lower quality of supervision scores than the ones with lower reported medical errors. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the association between the frequency of medical errors reported by residents and their perceived quality of faculty supervision. A cross-sectional nationwide survey was sent to 1000 residents randomly selected from anesthesiology training departments across the United States. Residents from 122 residency programs were invited to participate, the median (interquartile range) per institution was 7 (4-11). Participants were asked to complete a survey assessing demography, perceived quality of faculty supervision, and perceived causes of inadequate perceived supervision. Responses to the statements "I perform procedures for which I am not properly trained," "I make mistakes that have negative consequences for the patient," and "I have made a medication error (drug or incorrect dose) in the last year" were used to assess error rates. Average supervision scores were determined using the De Oliveira Filho et al. scale and compared among the frequency of self-reported error categories using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Six hundred four residents responded to the survey (60.4%). Forty-five (7.5%) of the respondents reported performing procedures for which they were not properly trained, 24 (4%) reported having made mistakes with negative consequences to patients, and 16 (3%) reported medication errors in the last year having occurred multiple times or often. Supervision scores were inversely correlated with the frequency of reported errors for all 3 questions evaluating errors. At a cutoff value of 3, supervision scores demonstrated an overall accuracy (area under the curve) (99% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.73-0.86), 0.89 (0.77-0.95), and 0.93 (0.77-0.98) for predicting a response of multiple times or often to the question of performing procedures for which they were not properly trained, reported mistakes with negative consequences to patients, and reported medication errors in the last year, respectively. Anesthesiology trainees who reported a greater incidence of medical errors with negative consequences to patients and drug errors also reported lower scores for supervision by faculty. Our findings suggest that further studies of the association between supervision and patient safety are warranted. (Anesth Analg 2013;116:892-7).

Phenotypic Graphs and Evolution Unfold the Standard Genetic Code as the Optimal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamudio, Gabriel S.; José, Marco V.

2018-03-01

In this work, we explicitly consider the evolution of the Standard Genetic Code (SGC) by assuming two evolutionary stages, to wit, the primeval RNY code and two intermediate codes in between. We used network theory and graph theory to measure the connectivity of each phenotypic graph. The connectivity values are compared to the values of the codes under different randomization scenarios. An error-correcting optimal code is one in which the algebraic connectivity is minimized. We show that the SGC is optimal in regard to its robustness and error-tolerance when compared to all random codes under different assumptions.

Entropy-Based TOA Estimation and SVM-Based Ranging Error Mitigation in UWB Ranging Systems

PubMed Central

Yin, Zhendong; Cui, Kai; Wu, Zhilu; Yin, Liang

2015-01-01

The major challenges for Ultra-wide Band (UWB) indoor ranging systems are the dense multipath and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) problems of the indoor environment. To precisely estimate the time of arrival (TOA) of the first path (FP) in such a poor environment, a novel approach of entropy-based TOA estimation and support vector machine (SVM) regression-based ranging error mitigation is proposed in this paper. The proposed method can estimate the TOA precisely by measuring the randomness of the received signals and mitigate the ranging error without the recognition of the channel conditions. The entropy is used to measure the randomness of the received signals and the FP can be determined by the decision of the sample which is followed by a great entropy decrease. The SVM regression is employed to perform the ranging-error mitigation by the modeling of the regressor between the characteristics of received signals and the ranging error. The presented numerical simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves significant performance improvements in the CM1 to CM4 channels of the IEEE 802.15.4a standard, as compared to conventional approaches. PMID:26007726

Debiasing affective forecasting errors with targeted, but not representative, experience narratives.

PubMed

Shaffer, Victoria A; Focella, Elizabeth S; Scherer, Laura D; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J

2016-10-01

To determine whether representative experience narratives (describing a range of possible experiences) or targeted experience narratives (targeting the direction of forecasting bias) can reduce affective forecasting errors, or errors in predictions of experiences. In Study 1, participants (N=366) were surveyed about their experiences with 10 common medical events. Those who had never experienced the event provided ratings of predicted discomfort and those who had experienced the event provided ratings of actual discomfort. Participants making predictions were randomly assigned to either the representative experience narrative condition or the control condition in which they made predictions without reading narratives. In Study 2, participants (N=196) were again surveyed about their experiences with these 10 medical events, but participants making predictions were randomly assigned to either the targeted experience narrative condition or the control condition. Affective forecasting errors were observed in both studies. These forecasting errors were reduced with the use of targeted experience narratives (Study 2) but not representative experience narratives (Study 1). Targeted, but not representative, narratives improved the accuracy of predicted discomfort. Public collections of patient experiences should favor stories that target affective forecasting biases over stories representing the range of possible experiences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Danish Cardiovascular Screening Trial (DANCAVAS): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt; Rasmussen, Lars Melholt; Søgaard, Rikke; Lambrechtsen, Jess; Steffensen, Flemming Hald; Frost, Lars; Egstrup, Kenneth; Urbonaviciene, Grazina; Busk, Martin; Olsen, Michael Hecht; Mickley, Hans; Hallas, Jesper; Lindholt, Jes Sanddal

2015-12-05

The significant increase in the average life expectancy has increased the societal challenge of managing serious age-related diseases, especially cancer and cardiovascular diseases. A routine check by a general practitioner is not sufficient to detect incipient cardiovascular disease. Population-based randomized clinically controlled screening trial. 45,000 Danish men aged 65-74 years living on the Island of Funen, or in the surrounding communities of Vejle and Silkeborg. No exclusion criteria are used. One-third will be invited to cardiovascular seven-faceted screening examinations at one of four locations. The screening will include: (1) low-dose non-contrast CT scan to detect coronary artery calcification and aortic/iliac aneurysms, (2) brachial and ankle blood pressure index to detect peripheral arterial disease and hypertension, (3) a telemetric assessment of the heart rhythm, and (4) a measurement of the cholesterol and plasma glucose levels. Up-to-date cardiovascular preventive treatment is recommended in case of positive findings. To investigate whether advanced cardiovascular screening will prevent death and cardiovascular events, and whether the possible health benefits are cost effective. Registry-based follow-up on all cause death (primary outcome), and costs after 3, 5 and 10 years (secondary outcome). Each of the 45,000 individuals is, by EPIDATA, given a random number from 1-100. Those numbered 67+ will be offered screening; the others will act as a control group. Only those randomized to the screening will be invited to the examination;the remaining participants will not. Numbers randomized: A total of 45,000 men will be randomized 1:2. Recruitment: Enrollment started October 2014. A 5% reduction in overall mortality (HR=0.95), with the risk for a type 1 error=5% and the risk for a type II error=80%, is expected. We expect a 2-year enrollment, a 10-year follow-up, and a median survival of 15 years among the controls. The attendance to screening is assumed to be 70%. The primary aim of this so far stand-alone population-based, randomized trial will be to evaluate the health benefits and costeffectiveness of using non-contrast full truncus computer tomography (CT) scans (to measure coronary artery calcification (CAC) and identify aortic/iliac aneurysms) and measurements of the ankle brachial blood pressure index (ABI) as part of a multifocal screening and intervention program for CVD in men aged 65-74. Attendance rate and compliance to initiated preventive actions must be expected to become of major importance. Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN12157806 (21 March 2015).

Maximum type I error rate inflation from sample size reassessment when investigators are blind to treatment labels.

PubMed

Żebrowska, Magdalena; Posch, Martin; Magirr, Dominic

2016-05-30

Consider a parallel group trial for the comparison of an experimental treatment to a control, where the second-stage sample size may depend on the blinded primary endpoint data as well as on additional blinded data from a secondary endpoint. For the setting of normally distributed endpoints, we demonstrate that this may lead to an inflation of the type I error rate if the null hypothesis holds for the primary but not the secondary endpoint. We derive upper bounds for the inflation of the type I error rate, both for trials that employ random allocation and for those that use block randomization. We illustrate the worst-case sample size reassessment rule in a case study. For both randomization strategies, the maximum type I error rate increases with the effect size in the secondary endpoint and the correlation between endpoints. The maximum inflation increases with smaller block sizes if information on the block size is used in the reassessment rule. Based on our findings, we do not question the well-established use of blinded sample size reassessment methods with nuisance parameter estimates computed from the blinded interim data of the primary endpoint. However, we demonstrate that the type I error rate control of these methods relies on the application of specific, binding, pre-planned and fully algorithmic sample size reassessment rules and does not extend to general or unplanned sample size adjustments based on blinded data. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improved uncertainty quantification in nondestructive assay for nonproliferation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burr, Tom; Croft, Stephen; Jarman, Ken

2016-12-01

This paper illustrates methods to improve uncertainty quantification (UQ) for non-destructive assay (NDA) measurements used in nuclear nonproliferation. First, it is shown that current bottom-up UQ applied to calibration data is not always adequate, for three main reasons: (1) Because there are errors in both the predictors and the response, calibration involves a ratio of random quantities, and calibration data sets in NDA usually consist of only a modest number of samples (3–10); therefore, asymptotic approximations involving quantities needed for UQ such as means and variances are often not sufficiently accurate; (2) Common practice overlooks that calibration implies a partitioningmore » of total error into random and systematic error, and (3) In many NDA applications, test items exhibit non-negligible departures in physical properties from calibration items, so model-based adjustments are used, but item-specific bias remains in some data. Therefore, improved bottom-up UQ using calibration data should predict the typical magnitude of item-specific bias, and the suggestion is to do so by including sources of item-specific bias in synthetic calibration data that is generated using a combination of modeling and real calibration data. Second, for measurements of the same nuclear material item by both the facility operator and international inspectors, current empirical (top-down) UQ is described for estimating operator and inspector systematic and random error variance components. A Bayesian alternative is introduced that easily accommodates constraints on variance components, and is more robust than current top-down methods to the underlying measurement error distributions.« less

The Relationship Between Work Commitment, Dynamic, and Medication Error.

PubMed

Rezaiamin, Abdoolkarim; Pazokian, Marzieh; Zagheri Tafreshi, Mansoureh; Nasiri, Malihe

2017-05-01

Incidence of medication errors in intensive care unit (ICU) can cause irreparable damage for ICU patients. Therefore, it seems necessary to find the causes of medication errors in this section. Work commitment and dynamic might affect the incidence of medication errors in ICU. To assess the mentioned hypothesis, we performed a descriptive-analytical study which was carried out on 117 nurses working in ICU of educational hospitals in Tehran. Minick et al., Salyer et al., and Wakefield et al. scales were used for data gathering on work commitment, dynamic, and medication errors, respectively. Findings of the current study revealed that high work commitment in ICU nurses caused low number of medication errors, including intravenous and nonintravenous. We controlled the effects of confounding variables in detection of this relationship. In contrast, no significant association was found between work dynamic and different types of medication errors. Although the study did not observe any relationship between the dynamics and rate of medication errors, the training of nurses or nursing students to create a dynamic environment in hospitals can increase their interest in the profession and increase job satisfaction in them. Also they must have enough ability in work dynamic so that they don't confused and distracted result in frequent changes of orders, care plans, and procedures.

The effectiveness of computerized order entry at reducing preventable adverse drug events and medication errors in hospital settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act subsidizes implementation by hospitals of electronic health records with computerized provider order entry (CPOE), which may reduce patient injuries caused by medication errors (preventable adverse drug events, pADEs). Effects on pADEs have not been rigorously quantified, and effects on medication errors have been variable. The objectives of this analysis were to assess the effectiveness of CPOE at reducing pADEs in hospital-related settings, and examine reasons for heterogeneous effects on medication errors. Methods Articles were identified using MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Econlit, web-based databases, and bibliographies of previous systematic reviews (September 2013). Eligible studies compared CPOE with paper-order entry in acute care hospitals, and examined diverse pADEs or medication errors. Studies on children or with limited event-detection methods were excluded. Two investigators extracted data on events and factors potentially associated with effectiveness. We used random effects models to pool data. Results Sixteen studies addressing medication errors met pooling criteria; six also addressed pADEs. Thirteen studies used pre-post designs. Compared with paper-order entry, CPOE was associated with half as many pADEs (pooled risk ratio (RR) = 0.47, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.71) and medication errors (RR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.60). Regarding reasons for heterogeneous effects on medication errors, five intervention factors and two contextual factors were sufficiently reported to support subgroup analyses or meta-regression. Differences between commercial versus homegrown systems, presence and sophistication of clinical decision support, hospital-wide versus limited implementation, and US versus non-US studies were not significant, nor was timing of publication. Higher baseline rates of medication errors predicted greater reductions (P < 0.001). Other context and implementation variables were seldom reported. Conclusions In hospital-related settings, implementing CPOE is associated with a greater than 50% decline in pADEs, although the studies used weak designs. Decreases in medication errors are similar and robust to variations in important aspects of intervention design and context. This suggests that CPOE implementation, as subsidized under the HITECH Act, may benefit public health. More detailed reporting of the context and process of implementation could shed light on factors associated with greater effectiveness. PMID:24894078

Research of laser echo signal simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Rui; Shi, Rui; Wang, Xin; Li, Zhou

2015-11-01

Laser echo signal simulator is one of the most significant components of hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) simulation systems for LADAR. System model and time series model of laser echo signal simulator are established. Some influential factors which could induce fixed error and random error on the simulated return signals are analyzed, and then these system insertion errors are analyzed quantitatively. Using this theoretical model, the simulation system is investigated experimentally. The results corrected by subtracting fixed error indicate that the range error of the simulated laser return signal is less than 0.25m, and the distance range that the system can simulate is from 50m to 20km.

Natural Selection as an Emergent Process: Instructional Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Robert A.

2017-01-01

Student reasoning about cases of natural selection is often plagued by errors that stem from miscategorising selection as a direct, causal process, misunderstanding the role of randomness, and from the intuitive ideas of intentionality, teleology and essentialism. The common thread throughout many of these reasoning errors is a failure to apply…

Measurement variability error for estimates of volume change

Treesearch

James A. Westfall; Paul L. Patterson

2007-01-01

Using quality assurance data, measurement variability distributions were developed for attributes that affect tree volume prediction. Random deviations from the measurement variability distributions were applied to 19381 remeasured sample trees in Maine. The additional error due to measurement variation and measurement bias was estimated via a simulation study for...

Data entry errors and design for model-based tight glycemic control in critical care.

PubMed

Ward, Logan; Steel, James; Le Compte, Aaron; Evans, Alicia; Tan, Chia-Siong; Penning, Sophie; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Desaive, Thomas; Chase, J Geoffrey

2012-01-01

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. Model-based methods and computerized protocols offer the opportunity to improve TGC quality but require human data entry, particularly of blood glucose (BG) values, which can be significantly prone to error. This study presents the design and optimization of data entry methods to minimize error for a computerized and model-based TGC method prior to pilot clinical trials. To minimize data entry error, two tests were carried out to optimize a method with errors less than the 5%-plus reported in other studies. Four initial methods were tested on 40 subjects in random order, and the best two were tested more rigorously on 34 subjects. The tests measured entry speed and accuracy. Errors were reported as corrected and uncorrected errors, with the sum comprising a total error rate. The first set of tests used randomly selected values, while the second set used the same values for all subjects to allow comparisons across users and direct assessment of the magnitude of errors. These research tests were approved by the University of Canterbury Ethics Committee. The final data entry method tested reduced errors to less than 1-2%, a 60-80% reduction from reported values. The magnitude of errors was clinically significant and was typically by 10.0 mmol/liter or an order of magnitude but only for extreme values of BG < 2.0 mmol/liter or BG > 15.0-20.0 mmol/liter, both of which could be easily corrected with automated checking of extreme values for safety. The data entry method selected significantly reduced data entry errors in the limited design tests presented, and is in use on a clinical pilot TGC study. The overall approach and testing methods are easily performed and generalizable to other applications and protocols. © 2012 Diabetes Technology Society.

Prediction of transmission distortion for wireless video communication: analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Zhifeng; Wu, Dapeng

2012-03-01

Transmitting video over wireless is a challenging problem since video may be seriously distorted due to packet errors caused by wireless channels. The capability of predicting transmission distortion (i.e., video distortion caused by packet errors) can assist in designing video encoding and transmission schemes that achieve maximum video quality or minimum end-to-end video distortion. This paper is aimed at deriving formulas for predicting transmission distortion. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we identify the governing law that describes how the transmission distortion process evolves over time and analytically derive the transmission distortion formula as a closed-form function of video frame statistics, channel error statistics, and system parameters. Second, we identify, for the first time, two important properties of transmission distortion. The first property is that the clipping noise, which is produced by nonlinear clipping, causes decay of propagated error. The second property is that the correlation between motion-vector concealment error and propagated error is negative and has dominant impact on transmission distortion, compared with other correlations. Due to these two properties and elegant error/distortion decomposition, our formula provides not only more accurate prediction but also lower complexity than the existing methods.

Localization Methods for a Mobile Robot in Urban Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-10-04

Columbia University, Department of Computer Science, 2001. [30] R. Brown and P. Hwang , Introduction to random signals and applied Kalman filtering, 3rd...sensor. An extended Kalman filter integrates the sensor data and keeps track of the uncertainty associated with it. The second method is based on...errors+ compass/GPS errors corrected odometry pose odometry error estimates zk zk h(x)~ h(x)~ Kalman Filter zk Fig. 4. A diagram of the extended

The network impact of hijacking a quantum repeater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Takahiko; Nagayama, Shota; Oka, Takafumi; Van Meter, Rodney

2018-07-01

In quantum networking, repeater hijacking menaces the security and utility of quantum applications. To deal with this problem, it is important to take a measure of the impact of quantum repeater hijacking. First, we quantify the work of each quantum repeater with regards to each quantum communication. Based on this, we show the costs for repeater hijacking detection using distributed quantum state tomography and the amount of work loss and rerouting penalties caused by hijacking. This quantitative evaluation covers both purification-entanglement swapping and quantum error correction repeater networks. Naive implementation of the checks necessary for correct network operation can be subverted by a single hijacker to bring down an entire network. Fortunately, the simple fix of randomly assigned testing can prevent such an attack.

A survey of community members' perceptions of medical errors in Oman

PubMed Central

Al-Mandhari, Ahmed S; Al-Shafaee, Mohammed A; Al-Azri, Mohammed H; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim S; Khan, Mushtaq; Al-Waily, Ahmed M; Rizvi, Syed

2008-01-01

Background Errors have been the concern of providers and consumers of health care services. However, consumers' perception of medical errors in developing countries is rarely explored. The aim of this study is to assess community members' perceptions about medical errors and to analyse the factors affecting this perception in one Middle East country, Oman. Methods Face to face interviews were conducted with heads of 212 households in two villages in North Al-Batinah region of Oman selected because of close proximity to the Sultan Qaboos University (SQU), Muscat, Oman. Participants' perceived knowledge about medical errors was assessed. Responses were coded and categorised. Analyses were performed using Pearson's χ2, Fisher's exact tests, and multivariate logistic regression model wherever appropriate. Results Seventy-eight percent (n = 165) of participants believed they knew what was meant by medical errors. Of these, 34% and 26.5% related medical errors to wrong medications or diagnoses, respectively. Understanding of medical errors was correlated inversely with age and positively with family income. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that a one-year increase in age was associated with a 4% reduction in perceived knowledge of medical errors (CI: 1% to 7%; p = 0.045). The study found that 49% of those who believed they knew the meaning of medical errors had experienced such errors. The most common consequence of the errors was severe pain (45%). Of the 165 informed participants, 49% felt that an uncaring health care professional was the main cause of medical errors. Younger participants were able to list more possible causes of medical errors than were older subjects (Incident Rate Ratio of 0.98; p < 0.001). Conclusion The majority of participants believed they knew the meaning of medical errors. Younger participants were more likely to be aware of such errors and could list one or more causes. PMID:18664245

Modified Bat Algorithm for Feature Selection with the Wisconsin Diagnosis Breast Cancer (WDBC) Dataset

PubMed

Jeyasingh, Suganthi; Veluchamy, Malathi

2017-05-01

Early diagnosis of breast cancer is essential to save lives of patients. Usually, medical datasets include a large variety of data that can lead to confusion during diagnosis. The Knowledge Discovery on Database (KDD) process helps to improve efficiency. It requires elimination of inappropriate and repeated data from the dataset before final diagnosis. This can be done using any of the feature selection algorithms available in data mining. Feature selection is considered as a vital step to increase the classification accuracy. This paper proposes a Modified Bat Algorithm (MBA) for feature selection to eliminate irrelevant features from an original dataset. The Bat algorithm was modified using simple random sampling to select the random instances from the dataset. Ranking was with the global best features to recognize the predominant features available in the dataset. The selected features are used to train a Random Forest (RF) classification algorithm. The MBA feature selection algorithm enhanced the classification accuracy of RF in identifying the occurrence of breast cancer. The Wisconsin Diagnosis Breast Cancer Dataset (WDBC) was used for estimating the performance analysis of the proposed MBA feature selection algorithm. The proposed algorithm achieved better performance in terms of Kappa statistic, Mathew’s Correlation Coefficient, Precision, F-measure, Recall, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Absolute Error (RAE) and Root Relative Squared Error (RRSE). Creative Commons Attribution License

A system dynamic simulation model for managing the human error in power tools industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Shaharanee, Izwan Nizal Mohd

2017-10-01

In the era of modern and competitive life of today, every organization will face the situations in which the work does not proceed as planned when there is problems occur in which it had to be delay. However, human error is often cited as the culprit. The error that made by the employees would cause them have to spend additional time to identify and check for the error which in turn could affect the normal operations of the company as well as the company's reputation. Employee is a key element of the organization in running all of the activities of organization. Hence, work performance of the employees is a crucial factor in organizational success. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that cause the increasing errors make by employees in the organization by using system dynamics approach. The broadly defined targets in this study are employees in the Regional Material Field team from purchasing department in power tools industries. Questionnaires were distributed to the respondents to obtain their perceptions on the root cause of errors make by employees in the company. The system dynamics model was developed to simulate the factor of the increasing errors make by employees and its impact. The findings of this study showed that the increasing of error make by employees was generally caused by the factors of workload, work capacity, job stress, motivation and performance of employees. However, this problem could be solve by increased the number of employees in the organization.

A dynamic system matching technique for improving the accuracy of MEMS gyroscopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubberud, Peter A.; Stubberud, Stephen C.; Stubberud, Allen R.

2014-12-01

A classical MEMS gyro transforms angular rates into electrical values through Euler's equations of angular rotation. Production models of a MEMS gyroscope will have manufacturing errors in the coefficients of the differential equations. The output signal of a production gyroscope will be corrupted by noise, with a major component of the noise due to the manufacturing errors. As is the case of the components in an analog electronic circuit, one way of controlling the variability of a subsystem is to impose extremely tight control on the manufacturing process so that the coefficient values are within some specified bounds. This can be expensive and may even be impossible as is the case in certain applications of micro-electromechanical (MEMS) sensors. In a recent paper [2], the authors introduced a method for combining the measurements from several nominally equal MEMS gyroscopes using a technique based on a concept from electronic circuit design called dynamic element matching [1]. Because the method in this paper deals with systems rather than elements, it is called a dynamic system matching technique (DSMT). The DSMT generates a single output by randomly switching the outputs of several, nominally identical, MEMS gyros in and out of the switch output. This has the effect of 'spreading the spectrum' of the noise caused by the coefficient errors generated in the manufacture of the individual gyros. A filter can then be used to eliminate that part of the spread spectrum that is outside the pass band of the gyro. A heuristic analysis in that paper argues that the DSMT can be used to control the effects of the random coefficient variations. In a follow-on paper [4], a simulation of a DSMT indicated that the heuristics were consistent. In this paper, analytic expressions of the DSMT noise are developed which confirm that the earlier conclusions are valid. These expressions include the various DSMT design parameters and, therefore, can be used as design tools for DSMT systems.

A dynamic system matching technique for improving the accuracy of MEMS gyroscopes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stubberud, Peter A., E-mail: stubber@ee.unlv.edu; Stubberud, Stephen C., E-mail: scstubberud@ieee.org; Stubberud, Allen R., E-mail: stubberud@att.net

A classical MEMS gyro transforms angular rates into electrical values through Euler's equations of angular rotation. Production models of a MEMS gyroscope will have manufacturing errors in the coefficients of the differential equations. The output signal of a production gyroscope will be corrupted by noise, with a major component of the noise due to the manufacturing errors. As is the case of the components in an analog electronic circuit, one way of controlling the variability of a subsystem is to impose extremely tight control on the manufacturing process so that the coefficient values are within some specified bounds. This canmore » be expensive and may even be impossible as is the case in certain applications of micro-electromechanical (MEMS) sensors. In a recent paper [2], the authors introduced a method for combining the measurements from several nominally equal MEMS gyroscopes using a technique based on a concept from electronic circuit design called dynamic element matching [1]. Because the method in this paper deals with systems rather than elements, it is called a dynamic system matching technique (DSMT). The DSMT generates a single output by randomly switching the outputs of several, nominally identical, MEMS gyros in and out of the switch output. This has the effect of 'spreading the spectrum' of the noise caused by the coefficient errors generated in the manufacture of the individual gyros. A filter can then be used to eliminate that part of the spread spectrum that is outside the pass band of the gyro. A heuristic analysis in that paper argues that the DSMT can be used to control the effects of the random coefficient variations. In a follow-on paper [4], a simulation of a DSMT indicated that the heuristics were consistent. In this paper, analytic expressions of the DSMT noise are developed which confirm that the earlier conclusions are valid. These expressions include the various DSMT design parameters and, therefore, can be used as design tools for DSMT systems.« less

An ensemble-ANFIS based uncertainty assessment model for forecasting multi-scalar standardized precipitation index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Mumtaz; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Downs, Nathan J.; Maraseni, Tek

2018-07-01

Forecasting drought by means of the World Meteorological Organization-approved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is considered to be a fundamental task to support socio-economic initiatives and effectively mitigating the climate-risk. This study aims to develop a robust drought modelling strategy to forecast multi-scalar SPI in drought-rich regions of Pakistan where statistically significant lagged combinations of antecedent SPI are used to forecast future SPI. With ensemble-Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System ('ensemble-ANFIS') executed via a 10-fold cross-validation procedure, a model is constructed by randomly partitioned input-target data. Resulting in 10-member ensemble-ANFIS outputs, judged by mean square error and correlation coefficient in the training period, the optimal forecasts are attained by the averaged simulations, and the model is benchmarked with M5 Model Tree and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). The results show the proposed ensemble-ANFIS model's preciseness was notably better (in terms of the root mean square and mean absolute error including the Willmott's, Nash-Sutcliffe and Legates McCabe's index) for the 6- and 12- month compared to the 3-month forecasts as verified by the largest error proportions that registered in smallest error band. Applying 10-member simulations, ensemble-ANFIS model was validated for its ability to forecast severity (S), duration (D) and intensity (I) of drought (including the error bound). This enabled uncertainty between multi-models to be rationalized more efficiently, leading to a reduction in forecast error caused by stochasticity in drought behaviours. Through cross-validations at diverse sites, a geographic signature in modelled uncertainties was also calculated. Considering the superiority of ensemble-ANFIS approach and its ability to generate uncertainty-based information, the study advocates the versatility of a multi-model approach for drought-risk forecasting and its prime importance for estimating drought properties over confidence intervals to generate better information for strategic decision-making.

Iterative random vs. Kennard-Stone sampling for IR spectrum-based classification task using PLS2-DA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Loong Chuen; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2018-04-01

External testing (ET) is preferred over auto-prediction (AP) or k-fold-cross-validation in estimating more realistic predictive ability of a statistical model. With IR spectra, Kennard-stone (KS) sampling algorithm is often used to split the data into training and test sets, i.e. respectively for model construction and for model testing. On the other hand, iterative random sampling (IRS) has not been the favored choice though it is theoretically more likely to produce reliable estimation. The aim of this preliminary work is to compare performances of KS and IRS in sampling a representative training set from an attenuated total reflectance - Fourier transform infrared spectral dataset (of four varieties of blue gel pen inks) for PLS2-DA modeling. The `best' performance achievable from the dataset is estimated with AP on the full dataset (APF, error). Both IRS (n = 200) and KS were used to split the dataset in the ratio of 7:3. The classic decision rule (i.e. maximum value-based) is employed for new sample prediction via partial least squares - discriminant analysis (PLS2-DA). Error rate of each model was estimated repeatedly via: (a) AP on full data (APF, error); (b) AP on training set (APS, error); and (c) ET on the respective test set (ETS, error). A good PLS2-DA model is expected to produce APS, error and EVS, error that is similar to the APF, error. Bearing that in mind, the similarities between (a) APS, error vs. APF, error; (b) ETS, error vs. APF, error and; (c) APS, error vs. ETS, error were evaluated using correlation tests (i.e. Pearson and Spearman's rank test), using series of PLS2-DA models computed from KS-set and IRS-set, respectively. Overall, models constructed from IRS-set exhibits more similarities between the internal and external error rates than the respective KS-set, i.e. less risk of overfitting. In conclusion, IRS is more reliable than KS in sampling representative training set.

Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

2016-01-01

Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

Effect of asymmetrical transfer coefficients of a non-polarizing beam splitter on the nonlinear error of the polarization interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chen-Guang; Tan, Jiu-Bin; Liu, Tao

2010-09-01

The mechanism of a non-polarizing beam splitter (NPBS) with asymmetrical transfer coefficients causing the rotation of polarization direction is explained in principle, and the measurement nonlinear error caused by NPBS is analyzed based on Jones matrix theory. Theoretical calculations show that the nonlinear error changes periodically, and the error period and peak values increase with the deviation between transmissivities of p-polarization and s-polarization states. When the transmissivity of p-polarization is 53% and that of s-polarization is 48%, the maximum error reaches 2.7 nm. The imperfection of NPBS is one of the main error sources in simultaneous phase-shifting polarization interferometer, and its influence can not be neglected in the nanoscale ultra-precision measurement.

Transient Faults in Computer Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masson, Gerald M.

1993-01-01

A powerful technique particularly appropriate for the detection of errors caused by transient faults in computer systems was developed. The technique can be implemented in either software or hardware; the research conducted thus far primarily considered software implementations. The error detection technique developed has the distinct advantage of having provably complete coverage of all errors caused by transient faults that affect the output produced by the execution of a program. In other words, the technique does not have to be tuned to a particular error model to enhance error coverage. Also, the correctness of the technique can be formally verified. The technique uses time and software redundancy. The foundation for an effective, low-overhead, software-based certification trail approach to real-time error detection resulting from transient fault phenomena was developed.

Transition year labeling error characterization study. [Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clinton, N. J. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

Labeling errors made in the large area crop inventory experiment transition year estimates by Earth Observation Division image analysts are identified and quantified. The analysis was made from a subset of blind sites in six U.S. Great Plains states (Oklahoma, Kansas, Montana, Minnesota, North and South Dakota). The image interpretation basically was well done, resulting in a total omission error rate of 24 percent and a commission error rate of 4 percent. The largest amount of error was caused by factors beyond the control of the analysts who were following the interpretation procedures. The odd signatures, the largest error cause group, occurred mostly in areas of moisture abnormality. Multicrop labeling was tabulated showing the distribution of labeling for all crops.

Proximal antecedents and correlates of adopted error approach: a self-regulatory perspective.

PubMed

Van Dyck, Cathy; Van Hooft, Edwin; De Gilder, Dick; Liesveld, Lillian

2010-01-01

The current study aims to further investigate earlier established advantages of an error mastery approach over an error aversion approach. The two main purposes of the study relate to (1) self-regulatory traits (i.e., goal orientation and action-state orientation) that may predict which error approach (mastery or aversion) is adopted, and (2) proximal, psychological processes (i.e., self-focused attention and failure attribution) that relate to adopted error approach. In the current study participants' goal orientation and action-state orientation were assessed, after which they worked on an error-prone task. Results show that learning goal orientation related to error mastery, while state orientation related to error aversion. Under a mastery approach, error occurrence did not result in cognitive resources "wasted" on self-consciousness. Rather, attention went to internal-unstable, thus controllable, improvement oriented causes of error. Participants that had adopted an aversion approach, in contrast, experienced heightened self-consciousness and attributed failure to internal-stable or external causes. These results imply that when working on an error-prone task, people should be stimulated to take on a mastery rather than an aversion approach towards errors.

Development of a Precise Polarization Modulator for UV Spectropolarimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishikawa, S.; Shimizu, T.; Kano, R.; Bando, T.; Ishikawa, R.; Giono, G.; Tsuneta, S.; Nakayama, S.; Tajima, T.

2015-10-01

We developed a polarization modulation unit (PMU) to rotate a waveplate continuously in order to observe solar magnetic fields by spectropolarimetry. The non-uniformity of the PMU rotation may cause errors in the measurement of the degree of linear polarization (scale error) and its angle (crosstalk between Stokes-Q and -U), although it does not cause an artificial linear polarization signal (spurious polarization). We rotated a waveplate with the PMU to obtain a polarization modulation curve and estimated the scale error and crosstalk caused by the rotation non-uniformity. The estimated scale error and crosstalk were {<} 0.01 % for both. This PMU will be used as a waveplate motor for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP) rocket experiment. We confirm that the PMU performs and functions sufficiently well for CLASP.