A-MUPS score to differentiate patients with somatic symptom disorder from those with medical disease for complaints of non-acute pain

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Shingo; Ohira, Yoshiyuki; Noda, Kazutaka; Ikusaka, Masatomi

2017-01-01

Purpose To develop a clinical score to discriminate patients with somatic symptom disorder (SSD) from those with medical disease (MD) for complaints of non-acute pain. Methods We retrospectively examined the clinical records of consecutive patients with pain for a duration of ≥1 month in our department from April 2003 to March 2015. We divided the subjects according to the diagnoses of definite SSD (as diagnosed and tracked by psychiatrists in our hospital), probable SSD (without evaluation by psychiatrists in our hospital), matched MD (randomly matched two patients by age, sex, and pain location for each definite SSD patient), unmatched MD, other mental disease, or functional somatic syndrome (FSS). We investigated eight clinical factors for definite SSD and matched MD, and developed a diagnostic score to identify SSD. We subsequently validated the model with cases of probable SSD and unmatched MD. Results The number of patients with definite SSD, probable SSD, matched MD, unmatched MD, other mental disease, and FSS was 104 (3.5%), 214 (7.3%), 197 (6.7%), 742 (25%), 708 (24%), and 978 (33%), respectively. In a conditional logistic regression analysis, the following five factors were included as independent predictors of SSD: Analgesics ineffective, Mental disorder history, Unclear provocative/palliative factors, Persistence without cessation, and Stress feelings/episodes (A-MUPS). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model was 0.900 (95% CI: 0.864–0.937, p<0.001), and the McFadden’s pseudo-R-squared was 0.709. For internal validation, the AUC between probable SSD and unmatched MD was 0.930 (95% CI: 0.910–0.950, p<0.001). The prevalence and the likelihood ratio of SSD increased as the score increased. Conclusion The A-MUPS score was useful for discriminating patients with SSD from those with MD for complaints of non-acute pain, although external validation and refinement should be needed. PMID:28652807

A-MUPS score to differentiate patients with somatic symptom disorder from those with medical disease for complaints of non-acute pain.

PubMed

Suzuki, Shingo; Ohira, Yoshiyuki; Noda, Kazutaka; Ikusaka, Masatomi

2017-01-01

To develop a clinical score to discriminate patients with somatic symptom disorder (SSD) from those with medical disease (MD) for complaints of non-acute pain. We retrospectively examined the clinical records of consecutive patients with pain for a duration of ≥1 month in our department from April 2003 to March 2015. We divided the subjects according to the diagnoses of definite SSD (as diagnosed and tracked by psychiatrists in our hospital), probable SSD (without evaluation by psychiatrists in our hospital), matched MD (randomly matched two patients by age, sex, and pain location for each definite SSD patient), unmatched MD, other mental disease, or functional somatic syndrome (FSS). We investigated eight clinical factors for definite SSD and matched MD, and developed a diagnostic score to identify SSD. We subsequently validated the model with cases of probable SSD and unmatched MD. The number of patients with definite SSD, probable SSD, matched MD, unmatched MD, other mental disease, and FSS was 104 (3.5%), 214 (7.3%), 197 (6.7%), 742 (25%), 708 (24%), and 978 (33%), respectively. In a conditional logistic regression analysis, the following five factors were included as independent predictors of SSD: Analgesics ineffective, Mental disorder history, Unclear provocative/palliative factors, Persistence without cessation, and Stress feelings/episodes (A-MUPS). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the model was 0.900 (95% CI: 0.864-0.937, p <0.001), and the McFadden's pseudo- R -squared was 0.709. For internal validation, the AUC between probable SSD and unmatched MD was 0.930 (95% CI: 0.910-0.950, p <0.001). The prevalence and the likelihood ratio of SSD increased as the score increased. The A-MUPS score was useful for discriminating patients with SSD from those with MD for complaints of non-acute pain, although external validation and refinement should be needed.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability.

PubMed

Dawson, Michael R W; Gupta, Maya

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent's environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned.

Probability matching in perceptrons: Effects of conditional dependence and linear nonseparability

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Probability matching occurs when the behavior of an agent matches the likelihood of occurrence of events in the agent’s environment. For instance, when artificial neural networks match probability, the activity in their output unit equals the past probability of reward in the presence of a stimulus. Our previous research demonstrated that simple artificial neural networks (perceptrons, which consist of a set of input units directly connected to a single output unit) learn to match probability when presented different cues in isolation. The current paper extends this research by showing that perceptrons can match probabilities when presented simultaneous cues, with each cue signaling different reward likelihoods. In our first simulation, we presented up to four different cues simultaneously; the likelihood of reward signaled by the presence of one cue was independent of the likelihood of reward signaled by other cues. Perceptrons learned to match reward probabilities by treating each cue as an independent source of information about the likelihood of reward. In a second simulation, we violated the independence between cues by making some reward probabilities depend upon cue interactions. We did so by basing reward probabilities on a logical combination (AND or XOR) of two of the four possible cues. We also varied the size of the reward associated with the logical combination. We discovered that this latter manipulation was a much better predictor of perceptron performance than was the logical structure of the interaction between cues. This indicates that when perceptrons learn to match probabilities, they do so by assuming that each signal of a reward is independent of any other; the best predictor of perceptron performance is a quantitative measure of the independence of these input signals, and not the logical structure of the problem being learned. PMID:28212422

Population and performance analyses of four major populations with Illumina's FGx Forensic Genomics System.

PubMed

Churchill, Jennifer D; Novroski, Nicole M M; King, Jonathan L; Seah, Lay Hong; Budowle, Bruce

2017-09-01

The MiSeq FGx Forensic Genomics System (Illumina) enables amplification and massively parallel sequencing of 59 STRs, 94 identity informative SNPs, 54 ancestry informative SNPs, and 24 phenotypic informative SNPs. Allele frequency and population statistics data were generated for the 172 SNP loci included in this panel on four major population groups (Chinese, African Americans, US Caucasians, and Southwest Hispanics). Single-locus and combined random match probability values were generated for the identity informative SNPs. The average combined STR and identity informative SNP random match probabilities (assuming independence) across all four populations were 1.75E-67 and 2.30E-71 with length-based and sequence-based STR alleles, respectively. Ancestry and phenotype predictions were obtained using the ForenSeq™ Universal Analysis System (UAS; Illumina) based on the ancestry informative and phenotype informative SNP profiles generated for each sample. Additionally, performance metrics, including profile completeness, read depth, relative locus performance, and allele coverage ratios, were evaluated and detailed for the 725 samples included in this study. While some genetic markers included in this panel performed notably better than others, performance across populations was generally consistent. The performance and population data included in this study support that accurate and reliable profiles were generated and provide valuable background information for laboratories considering internal validation studies and implementation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

There Are at Least Two Kinds of Probability Matching: Evidence from a Secondary Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Otto, A. Ross; Taylor, Eric G.; Markman, Arthur B.

2011-01-01

Probability matching is a suboptimal behavior that often plagues human decision-making in simple repeated choice tasks. Despite decades of research, recent studies cannot find agreement on what choice strategies lead to probability matching. We propose a solution, showing that two distinct local choice strategies--which make different demands on…

Influences of Source-Item Contingency and Schematic Knowledge on Source Monitoring: Tests of the Probability-Matching Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayen, Ute J.; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G.

2011-01-01

The authors investigated conditions under which judgments in source-monitoring tasks are influenced by prior schematic knowledge. According to a probability-matching account of source guessing (Spaniol & Bayen, 2002), when people do not remember the source of information, they match source-guessing probabilities to the perceived contingency…

Selection and use of microsatellite markers for individual identification and meat traceability of six swine breeds in the Chinese market.

PubMed

Zhao, Jie; Li, Tingting; Zhu, Chao; Jiang, Xiaoling; Zhao, Yan; Xu, Zhenzhen; Yang, Shuming; Chen, Ailiang

2018-06-01

Meat traceability based on molecular markers is exerting a great influence on food safety and will enhance its key role in the future. This study aimed to investigate and verify the polymorphism of 23 microsatellite markers and select the most suitable markers for individual identification and meat traceability of six swine breeds in the Chinese market. The mean polymorphism information content value of these 23 loci was 0.7851, and each locus exhibited high polymorphism in the pooled population. There were 10 loci showing good polymorphism in each breed, namely, Sw632, S0155, Sw2406, Sw830, Sw2525, Sw72, Sw2448, Sw911, Sw122 and CGA. When six highly polymorphic loci were combined, the match probability value for two random individual genotypes among the pig breeds (Beijing Black, Sanyuan and Taihu) was lower than 1.151 E-06. An increasing number of loci indicated a gradually decreasing match probability value and therefore enhanced traceability accuracy. The validation results of tracing 18 blood and corresponding meat samples based on five highly polymorphic loci (Sw2525, S0005, Sw0107, Sw911 and Sw857) were successful, with 100% conformation probability, which provided a foundation for establishing a traceability system for pork in the Chinese market.

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

PubMed Central

Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Slatkin, Montgomery; Song, Yun S.

2011-01-01

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities.We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice. PMID:21266180

The random fractional matching problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucibello, Carlo; Malatesta, Enrico M.; Parisi, Giorgio; Sicuro, Gabriele

2018-05-01

We consider two formulations of the random-link fractional matching problem, a relaxed version of the more standard random-link (integer) matching problem. In one formulation, we allow each node to be linked to itself in the optimal matching configuration. In the other one, on the contrary, such a link is forbidden. Both problems have the same asymptotic average optimal cost of the random-link matching problem on the complete graph. Using a replica approach and previous results of Wästlund (2010 Acta Mathematica 204 91–150), we analytically derive the finite-size corrections to the asymptotic optimal cost. We compare our results with numerical simulations and we discuss the main differences between random-link fractional matching problems and the random-link matching problem.

The non-parametric Parzen's window in stereo vision matching.

PubMed

Pajares, G; de la Cruz, J

2002-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the local stereovision matching problem using edge segments as features with four attributes. From these attributes we compute a matching probability between pairs of features of the stereo images. A correspondence is said true when such a probability is maximum. We introduce a nonparametric strategy based on Parzen's window (1962) to estimate a probability density function (PDF) which is used to obtain the matching probability. This is the main finding of the paper. A comparative analysis of other recent matching methods is included to show that this finding can be justified theoretically. A generalization of the proposed method is made in order to give guidelines about its use with the similarity constraint and also in different environments where other features and attributes are more suitable.

Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

PubMed Central

Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

2008-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability, the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS), as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency produced. Method A 500+ word language sample was obtained from 19 CWS. Each stuttered word was randomly paired with a fluently produced word that closely matched it in grammatical class, word length, familiarity, word and neighborhood frequency, and neighborhood density. Phonotactic probability values were obtained for the stuttered and fluent words from an online database. Results Phonotactic probability did not have a significant influence on the overall susceptibility of words to stuttering, but it did impact the type of stuttered disfluency produced. In specific, single-syllable word repetitions were significantly lower in phonotactic probability than fluently produced words, as well as part-word repetitions and sound prolongations. Conclusions In general, the differential impact of phonotactic probability on the type of stuttering-like disfluency produced by young CWS provides some support for the notion that different disfluency types may originate in the disruption of different levels of processing. PMID:18658056

The Statistical Power of the Cluster Randomized Block Design with Matched Pairs--A Simulation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, Nianbo; Lipsey, Mark

2010-01-01

This study uses simulation techniques to examine the statistical power of the group- randomized design and the matched-pair (MP) randomized block design under various parameter combinations. Both nearest neighbor matching and random matching are used for the MP design. The power of each design for any parameter combination was calculated from…

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment.

PubMed

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-13

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios-one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good-and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

Evolution of a Fluctuating Population in a Randomly Switching Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wienand, Karl; Frey, Erwin; Mobilia, Mauro

2017-10-01

Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an environment that randomly switches between states of abundance and scarcity. Assuming that one strain grows slightly faster than the other, we consider two scenarios—one of pure resource competition, and one in which one strain provides a public good—and investigate how environmental randomness (external noise) coupled to demographic (internal) noise determines the population's fixation properties and size distribution. By analytical means and simulations, we show that these coupled sources of noise can significantly enhance the fixation probability of the slower-growing species. We also show that the population size distribution can be unimodal, bimodal, or multimodal and undergoes noise-induced transitions between these regimes when the rate of switching matches the population's growth rate.

Comparison of spectra using a Bayesian approach. An argument using oil spills as an example.

PubMed

Li, Jianfeng; Hibbert, D Brynn; Fuller, Steven; Cattle, Julie; Pang Way, Christopher

2005-01-15

The problem of assigning a probability of matching a number of spectra is addressed. The context is in environmental spills when an EPA needs to show that the material from a polluting spill (e.g., oil) is likely to have originated at a particular site (factory, refinery) or from a vehicle (road tanker or ship). Samples are taken from the spill, and candidate sources and are analyzed by spectroscopy (IR, fluorescence) or chromatography (GC or GC/MS). A matching algorithm is applied to pairs of spectra giving a single statistic (R). This can be a point-to-point match giving a correlation coefficient or a Euclidean distance or a derivative of these parameters. The distributions of R for same and different samples are established from existing data. For matching statistics with values in the range {0,1} corresponding to no match (0) to a perfect match (1) a beta distribution can be fitted to most data. The values of R from the match of the spectrum of a spilled oil and of each of a number of suspects are calculated and Bayes' theorem is applied to give a probability of matches between spill sample and each candidate and the probability of no match at all. The method is most effective when simple inspection of the matching parameters does not lead to an obvious conclusion; i.e., there is overlap of the distributions giving rise to dubiety of an assignment. The probability of finding a matching statistic if there were a match to the probability of finding it if there were no match, expressed as a ratio (called the likelihood ratio), is a sensitive and useful parameter to guide the analyst. It is proposed that this approach may be acceptable to a court of law and avoid challenges of apparently subjective opinion of an analyst. Examples of matching the fluorescence and infrared spectra of diesel oils are given.

"Congratulations, you have been randomized into the control group!(?)": issues to consider when recruiting schools for matched-pair randomized control trials of prevention programs.

PubMed

Ji, Peter; DuBois, David L; Flay, Brian R; Brechling, Vanessa

2008-03-01

Recruiting schools into a matched-pair randomized control trial (MP-RCT) to evaluate the efficacy of a school-level prevention program presents challenges for researchers. We considered which of 2 procedures would be most effective for recruiting schools into the study and assigning them to conditions. In 1 procedure (recruit and match/randomize), we would recruit schools and match them prior to randomization, and in the other (match/randomize and recruitment), we would match schools and randomize them prior to recruitment. We considered how each procedure impacted the randomization process and our ability to recruit schools into the study. After implementing the selected procedure, the equivalence of both treatment and control group schools and the participating and nonparticipating schools on school demographic variables was evaluated. We decided on the recruit and match/randomize procedure because we thought it would provide the opportunity to build rapport with the schools and prepare them for the randomization process, thereby increasing the likelihood that they would accept their randomly assigned conditions. Neither the treatment and control group schools nor the participating and nonparticipating schools exhibited statistically significant differences from each other on any of the school demographic variables. Recruitment of schools prior to matching and randomization in an MP-RCT may facilitate the recruitment of schools and thus enhance both the statistical power and the representativeness of study findings. Future research would benefit from the consideration of a broader range of variables (eg, readiness to implement a comprehensive prevention program) both in matching schools and in evaluating their representativeness to nonparticipating schools.

The correct estimate of the probability of false detection of the matched filter in weak-signal detection problems . II. Further results with application to a set of ALMA and ATCA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vio, R.; Vergès, C.; Andreani, P.

2017-08-01

The matched filter (MF) is one of the most popular and reliable techniques to the detect signals of known structure and amplitude smaller than the level of the contaminating noise. Under the assumption of stationary Gaussian noise, MF maximizes the probability of detection subject to a constant probability of false detection or false alarm (PFA). This property relies upon a priori knowledge of the position of the searched signals, which is usually not available. Recently, it has been shown that when applied in its standard form, MF may severely underestimate the PFA. As a consequence the statistical significance of features that belong to noise is overestimated and the resulting detections are actually spurious. For this reason, an alternative method of computing the PFA has been proposed that is based on the probability density function (PDF) of the peaks of an isotropic Gaussian random field. In this paper we further develop this method. In particular, we discuss the statistical meaning of the PFA and show that, although useful as a preliminary step in a detection procedure, it is not able to quantify the actual reliability of a specific detection. For this reason, a new quantity is introduced called the specific probability of false alarm (SPFA), which is able to carry out this computation. We show how this method works in targeted simulations and apply it to a few interferometric maps taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We select a few potential new point sources and assign an accurate detection reliability to these sources.

Social consequences of multiple sclerosis. Part 2. Divorce and separation: a historical prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Pfleger, C C H; Flachs, E M; Koch-Henriksen, Nils

2010-07-01

There is a need for follow-up studies of the familial situation of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. To evaluate the probability of MS patients to remain in marriage or relationship with the same partner after onset of MS in comparison with the population. All 2538 Danes with onset of MS 1980-1989, retrieved from the Danish MS-Registry, and 50,760 matched and randomly drawn control persons were included. Information on family status was retrieved from Statistics Denmark. Cox analyses were used with onset as starting point. Five years after onset, the cumulative probability of remaining in the same relationship was 86% in patients vs. 89% in controls. The probabilities continued to deviate, and at 24 years, the probability was 33% in patients vs. 53% in the control persons (p < 0.001). Among patients with young onset (< 36 years of age), those with no children had a higher risk of divorce than those having children less than 7 years (Hazard Ratio 1.51; p < 0.0001), and men had a higher risk of divorce than women (Hazard Ratio 1.33; p < 0.01). MS significantly affects the probability of remaining in the same relationship compared with the background population.

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey.

PubMed

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B S

2016-07-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quantity affects matching proportions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservatism often thought. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey

PubMed Central

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B.S.

2016-01-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quanity affects matching propoptions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservativism often thought. PMID:27082756

Adult Regularization of Inconsistent Input Depends on Pragmatic Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perfors, Amy

2016-01-01

In a variety of domains, adults who are given input that is only partially consistent do not discard the inconsistent portion (regularize) but rather maintain the probability of consistent and inconsistent portions in their behavior (probability match). This research investigates the possibility that adults probability match, at least in part,…

Phase transition in the countdown problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasa, Lucas; Luque, Bartolo

2012-07-01

We present a combinatorial decision problem, inspired by the celebrated quiz show called Countdown, that involves the computation of a given target number T from a set of k randomly chosen integers along with a set of arithmetic operations. We find that the probability of winning the game evidences a threshold phenomenon that can be understood in the terms of an algorithmic phase transition as a function of the set size k. Numerical simulations show that such probability sharply transitions from zero to one at some critical value of the control parameter, hence separating the algorithm's parameter space in different phases. We also find that the system is maximally efficient close to the critical point. We derive analytical expressions that match the numerical results for finite size and permit us to extrapolate the behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

Phylogenic analysis and forensic genetic characterization of Chinese Uyghur group via autosomal multi STR markers.

PubMed

Jin, Xiaoye; Wei, Yuanyuan; Chen, Jiangang; Kong, Tingting; Mu, Yuling; Guo, Yuxin; Dong, Qian; Xie, Tong; Meng, Haotian; Zhang, Meng; Li, Jianfei; Li, Xiaopeng; Zhu, Bofeng

2017-09-26

We investigated the allelic frequencies and forensic descriptive parameters of 23 autosomal short tandem repeat loci in a randomly selected sample of 1218 unrelated healthy Uyghur individuals residing in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northwest China. A total of 281 alleles at these loci were identified and their corresponding allelic frequencies ranged from 0.0004 to 0.5390. The combined match probability and combined probability of exclusion of all loci were 5.192 × 10 -29 and 0.9999999996594, respectively. The results of population genetic study manifested that Uyghur had close relationships with those contiguous populations, such as Xibe and Hui groups. In a word, these autosomal short tandem repeat loci were highly informative in Uyghur group and the multiplex PCR system could be used as a valuable tool for forensic caseworks and population genetic analysis.

How Important Is a Cricket Test Match?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glaister, P.

2007-01-01

In this article, the author analyzes the cricket series match between England and Australia by applying the concept of probability. The author presents solutions for obtaining results of either team winning or both ending up in a draw in the situation of a five-match series. The author also analyzes the probability wherein the series is still…

On the Effects of Signaling Reinforcer Probability and Magnitude in Delayed Matching to Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Glenn S.; White, K. Geoffrey

2005-01-01

Two experiments examined whether postsample signals of reinforcer probability or magnitude affected the accuracy of delayed matching to sample in pigeons. On each trial, red or green choice responses that matched red or green stimuli seen shortly before a variable retention interval were reinforced with wheat access. In Experiment 1, the…

Simple artificial neural networks that match probability and exploit and explore when confronting a multiarmed bandit.

PubMed

Dawson, Michael R W; Dupuis, Brian; Spetch, Marcia L; Kelly, Debbie M

2009-08-01

The matching law (Herrnstein 1961) states that response rates become proportional to reinforcement rates; this is related to the empirical phenomenon called probability matching (Vulkan 2000). Here, we show that a simple artificial neural network generates responses consistent with probability matching. This behavior was then used to create an operant procedure for network learning. We use the multiarmed bandit (Gittins 1989), a classic problem of choice behavior, to illustrate that operant training balances exploiting the bandit arm expected to pay off most frequently with exploring other arms. Perceptrons provide a medium for relating results from neural networks, genetic algorithms, animal learning, contingency theory, reinforcement learning, and theories of choice.

Astronomy and Rock Art Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, William Breen

Rock art is often used as evidence for the earliest phases of prehistoric celestial knowledge and sky observation. Like the sky, rock art is a global phenomenon and it is also one of the earliest manifestations of human cognitive awareness. Similarities in iconography and visual context may provide evidence of sky-watching activity, and in some cases, ethnographic analogies, ethnohistoric documentation, and surviving archaeological evidence may confirm that these activities were related to rock art production. Nevertheless, the problem of random matches makes proofs of intentional relation more complicated. Probabilities are measured differently in archaeology and astronomy and can sometimes lead to ambiguous or contradictory conclusions.

Database extraction strategies for low-template evidence.

PubMed

Bleka, Øyvind; Dørum, Guro; Haned, Hinda; Gill, Peter

2014-03-01

Often in forensic cases, the profile of at least one of the contributors to a DNA evidence sample is unknown and a database search is needed to discover possible perpetrators. In this article we consider two types of search strategies to extract suspects from a database using methods based on probability arguments. The performance of the proposed match scores is demonstrated by carrying out a study of each match score relative to the level of allele drop-out in the crime sample, simulating low-template DNA. The efficiency was measured by random man simulation and we compared the performance using the SGM Plus kit and the ESX 17 kit for the Norwegian population, demonstrating that the latter has greatly enhanced power to discover perpetrators of crime in large national DNA databases. The code for the database extraction strategies will be prepared for release in the R-package forensim. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of Propensity-Score Methods and Their Use in Cardiovascular Research.

PubMed

Deb, Saswata; Austin, Peter C; Tu, Jack V; Ko, Dennis T; Mazer, C David; Kiss, Alex; Fremes, Stephen E

2016-02-01

Observational studies using propensity-score methods have been increasing in the cardiovascular literature because randomized controlled trials are not always feasible or ethical. However, propensity-score methods can be confusing, and the general audience may not fully understand the importance of this technique. The objectives of this review are to describe (1) the fundamentals of propensity score methods, (2) the techniques to assess for propensity-score model adequacy, (3) the 4 major methods for using the propensity score (matching, stratification, covariate adjustment, and inverse probability of treatment weighting [IPTW]) using examples from previously published cardiovascular studies, and (4) the strengths and weaknesses of these 4 techniques. Our review suggests that matching or IPTW using the propensity score have shown to be most effective in reducing bias of the treatment effect. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On Probability Domains IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

2017-12-01

Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

A propensity score matching analysis of dasatinib and nilotinib as a frontline therapy for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase.

PubMed

Takahashi, Koichi; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Yang, Yulong; Sasaki, Koji; Jain, Preetesh; DellaSala, Sara; Ravandi, Farhad; Kadia, Tapan; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Borthakur, Gautam; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Jabbour, Elias; Cortes, Jorge E

2016-11-15

Both dasatinib and nilotinib are approved frontline therapy for chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP) based on randomized trials compared with imatinib. However, no head-to-head comparison of dasatinib and nilotinib has been conducted in patients with newly diagnosed CML-CP. The authors conducted a propensity score (PS) matched comparison of patients with CML-CP who received frontline therapy with either dasatinib (N = 102) or nilotinib (N = 104) under the respective phase 2 trials conducted in parallel. PS matching resulted in 87 patients from each trial being matched for pretreatment characteristics. The 3-month BCR-ABL1/ABL1 ratio <10% rate was 93% with dasatinib and 94% with nilotinib (P = .25); the rates of major molecular response at 12 months were 77% and 85%, respectively (P = .13); and the rates of molecular response with 4.5-log reduction in the ratio at 36 months were 66% and 64%, respectively (P = .96). All other clinically relevant responses were similar between the 2 treatment cohorts. The 3-year probability of event-free survival was 89% among the patients who received dasatinib and 87% among those who received nilotinib (P = .99), and the corresponding 3-year overall survival probabilities were 99% and 93%, respectively (P = .95). No statistical difference was observed between the dasatinib and nilotinib groups in any of the other survival endpoints. The treatment discontinuation rate also was similar between the 2 cohorts (dasatinib group, 18%; nilotinib group, 19%; P = .82). In a PS-matched cohort of patients with newly diagnosed CML-CP, dasatinib and nilotinib offer similar response and survival outcomes. Both drugs can be considered reasonable standard-of-care options as first-line therapy for patients with CML-CP. Cancer 2016;122:3336-3343. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Random Testing and Model Checking: Building a Common Framework for Nondeterministic Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groce, Alex; Joshi, Rajeev

2008-01-01

Two popular forms of dynamic analysis, random testing and explicit-state software model checking, are perhaps best viewed as search strategies for exploring the state spaces introduced by nondeterminism in program inputs. We present an approach that enables this nondeterminism to be expressed in the SPIN model checker's PROMELA language, and then lets users generate either model checkers or random testers from a single harness for a tested C program. Our approach makes it easy to compare model checking and random testing for models with precisely the same input ranges and probabilities and allows us to mix random testing with model checking's exhaustive exploration of non-determinism. The PROMELA language, as intended in its design, serves as a convenient notation for expressing nondeterminism and mixing random choices with nondeterministic choices. We present and discuss a comparison of random testing and model checking. The results derive from using our framework to test a C program with an effectively infinite state space, a module in JPL's next Mars rover mission. More generally, we show how the ability of the SPIN model checker to call C code can be used to extend SPIN's features, and hope to inspire others to use the same methods to implement dynamic analyses that can make use of efficient state storage, matching, and backtracking.

Selection method of terrain matching area for TERCOM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qieqie; Zhao, Long

2017-10-01

The performance of terrain aided navigation is closely related to the selection of terrain matching area. The different matching algorithms have different adaptability to terrain. This paper mainly studies the adaptability to terrain of TERCOM algorithm, analyze the relation between terrain feature and terrain characteristic parameters by qualitative and quantitative methods, and then research the relation between matching probability and terrain characteristic parameters by the Monte Carlo method. After that, we propose a selection method of terrain matching area for TERCOM algorithm, and verify the method correctness with real terrain data by simulation experiment. Experimental results show that the matching area obtained by the method in this paper has the good navigation performance and the matching probability of TERCOM algorithm is great than 90%

Probability matching and strategy availability.

PubMed

Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

2010-09-01

Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

Jigsaw model of the origin of life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, John F.

2002-02-01

It is suggested that life originated in a three-step process referred to as the jigsaw model. RNA, proteins, or similar organic molecules polymerized in a dehydrated carbon-rich environment, on surfaces in a carbon-rich environment, or in another environment where polymerization occurs. These polymers subsequently entered an aqueous environment where they folded into compact structures. It is argued that the folding of randomly generated polymers such as RNA or proteins in water tends to partition the folded polymer into domains with hydrophobic cores and matching shapes to minimize energy. In the aqueous environment hydrolysis or other reactions fragmented the compact structures into two or more matching molecules, occasionally producing simple living systems, also knows as autocatalytic sets of molecules. It is argued that the hydrolysis of folded polymers such as RNA or proteins is not random. The hydrophobic cores of the domains are rarely bisected due to the energy requirements in water. Hydrolysis preferentially fragments the folded polymers into pieces with complementary structures and chemical affinities. Thus the probability of producing a system of matched, interacting molecules in prebiotic chemistry is much higher than usually estimated. Environments where this process may occur are identified. For example, the jigsaw model suggests life may have originated at a seep or carbonaceous fluids beneath the ocean. The polymerization occurred beneath the sea floor. The folding and fragmentation occurred in the ocean. The implications of this hypothesis for seeking life or prebiotic chemistry in the Solar System are explored.

Phylogenic analysis and forensic genetic characterization of Chinese Uyghur group via autosomal multi STR markers

PubMed Central

Jin, Xiaoye; Wei, Yuanyuan; Chen, Jiangang; Kong, Tingting; Mu, Yuling; Guo, Yuxin; Dong, Qian; Xie, Tong; Meng, Haotian; Zhang, Meng; Li, Jianfei; Li, Xiaopeng; Zhu, Bofeng

2017-01-01

We investigated the allelic frequencies and forensic descriptive parameters of 23 autosomal short tandem repeat loci in a randomly selected sample of 1218 unrelated healthy Uyghur individuals residing in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northwest China. A total of 281 alleles at these loci were identified and their corresponding allelic frequencies ranged from 0.0004 to 0.5390. The combined match probability and combined probability of exclusion of all loci were 5.192 × 10−29 and 0.9999999996594, respectively. The results of population genetic study manifested that Uyghur had close relationships with those contiguous populations, such as Xibe and Hui groups. In a word, these autosomal short tandem repeat loci were highly informative in Uyghur group and the multiplex PCR system could be used as a valuable tool for forensic caseworks and population genetic analysis. PMID:29088750

Analytical expressions for the evolution of many-body quantum systems quenched far from equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Lea F.; Torres-Herrera, E. Jonathan

2017-12-01

Possible strategies to describe analytically the dynamics of many-body quantum systems out of equilibrium include the use of solvable models and of full random matrices. None of the two approaches represent actual realistic systems, but they serve as references for the studies of these ones. We take the second path and obtain analytical expressions for the survival probability, density imbalance, and out-of-time-ordered correlator. Using these findings, we then propose an approximate expression that matches very well numerical results for the evolution of realistic finite quantum systems that are strongly chaotic and quenched far from equilibrium. In the case of the survival probability, the expression proposed covers all different time scales, from the moment the system is taken out of equilibrium to the moment it reaches a new equilibrium. The realistic systems considered are described by one-dimensional spin-1/2 models.

Accuracy of very low pretest probability estimates for pulmonary embolism using the method of attribute matching compared with the Wells score.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Courtney, D Mark; Than, Martin P; Hogg, Kerstin; Miller, Chadwick D; Johnson, Charles L; Smithline, Howard A

2010-02-01

Attribute matching matches an explicit clinical profile of a patient to a reference database to estimate the numeric value for the pretest probability of an acute disease. The authors tested the accuracy of this method for forecasting a very low probability of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in symptomatic emergency department (ED) patients. The authors performed a secondary analysis of five data sets from 15 hospitals in three countries. All patients had data collected at the time of clinical evaluation for suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). The criterion standard to exclude VTE required no evidence of PE or deep venous thrombosis (DVT) within 45 days of enrollment. To estimate pretest probabilities, a computer program selected, from a large reference database of patients previously evaluated for PE, patients who matched 10 predictor variables recorded for each current test patient. The authors compared the outcome frequency of having VTE [VTE(+)] in patients with a pretest probability estimate of <2.5% by attribute matching, compared with a value of 0 from the Wells score. The five data sets included 10,734 patients, and 747 (7.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.5% to 7.5%) were VTE(+) within 45 days. The pretest probability estimate for PE was <2.5% in 2,975 of 10,734 (27.7%) patients, and within this subset, the observed frequency of VTE(+) was 48 of 2,975 (1.6%, 95% CI = 1.2% to 2.1%). The lowest possible Wells score (0) was observed in 3,412 (31.7%) patients, and within this subset, the observed frequency of VTE(+) was 79 of 3,412 (2.3%, 95% CI = 1.8% to 2.9%) patients. Attribute matching categorizes over one-quarter of patients tested for PE as having a pretest probability of <2.5%, and the observed rate of VTE within 45 days in this subset was <2.5%. (c) 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

2010-07-01

We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

University Students’ Conceptual Knowledge of Randomness and Probability in the Contexts of Evolution and Mathematics

PubMed Central

Fiedler, Daniela; Tröbst, Steffen; Harms, Ute

2017-01-01

Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution—the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract “threshold” concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument for assessing students’ conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the context of evolution. To address this problem, we have developed two instruments, Randomness and Probability Test in the Context of Evolution (RaProEvo) and Randomness and Probability Test in the Context of Mathematics (RaProMath), that include both multiple-choice and free-response items. The instruments were administered to 140 university students in Germany, then the Rasch partial-credit model was applied to assess them. The results indicate that the instruments generate reliable and valid inferences about students’ conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the two contexts (which are separable competencies). Furthermore, RaProEvo detected significant differences in knowledge of randomness and probability, as well as evolutionary theory, between biology majors and preservice biology teachers. PMID:28572180

Probability Matching in the Right Hemisphere

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, M.B.; Valsangkar-Smyth, M.

2005-01-01

Previously it has been shown that the left hemisphere, but not the right, of split-brain patients tends to match the frequency of previous occurrences in probability-guessing paradigms (Wolford, Miller, & Gazzaniga, 2000). This phenomenon has been attributed to an ''interpreter,'' a mechanism for making interpretations and forming hypotheses,…

The association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and Psychiatry as the specialty choice.

PubMed

Yang, Chong; Richard, George; Durkin, Martin

2016-02-06

The purpose of this pilot study is to examine the association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and prospective psychiatry residents. Forty-six American medical schools were contacted and asked to participate in this study. Data were collected and an aggregated list was compiled that included the following information: date of MBTI administration, academic year, MBTI form/version, residency match information and student demographic information. The data includes 835 American medical students who completed the MBTI survey and matched into a residency training program in the United States. All analyses were performed using R 3.1.2. The probability of an introvert matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of an extravert (p= 0.30). The probability of an intuitive individual matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a sensing type (p=0.20). The probability of a feeling type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a thinking type (p= 0.50). The probability of a perceiving type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a judging type (p= 0.60). Further analyses may elicit more accurate information regarding the personality profile of prospective psychiatry residents. The improvement in communication, team dynamics, mentor-mentee relationships and reduction in workplace conflicts are possible with the awareness of MBTI personality profiles.

The association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and Psychiatry as the specialty choice

PubMed Central

Richard, George; Durkin, Martin

2016-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this pilot study is to examine the association between Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) and prospective psychiatry residents. Methods Forty-six American medical schools were contacted and asked to participate in this study. Data were collected and an aggregated list was compiled that included the following information: date of MBTI administration, academic year, MBTI form/version, residency match information and student demographic information. The data includes 835 American medical students who completed the MBTI survey and matched into a residency training program in the United States. All analyses were performed using R 3.1.2. Results The probability of an introvert matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of an extravert (p= 0.30). The probability of an intuitive individual matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a sensing type (p=0.20). The probability of a feeling type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a thinking type (p= 0.50). The probability of a perceiving type matching to a psychiatry residency is no different than that of a judging type (p= 0.60). Conclusions Further analyses may elicit more accurate information regarding the personality profile of prospective psychiatry residents. The improvement in communication, team dynamics, mentor-mentee relationships and reduction in workplace conflicts are possible with the awareness of MBTI personality profiles. PMID:26851600

An evolutionary model of bounded rationality and intelligence.

PubMed

Brennan, Thomas J; Lo, Andrew W

2012-01-01

Most economic theories are based on the premise that individuals maximize their own self-interest and correctly incorporate the structure of their environment into all decisions, thanks to human intelligence. The influence of this paradigm goes far beyond academia-it underlies current macroeconomic and monetary policies, and is also an integral part of existing financial regulations. However, there is mounting empirical and experimental evidence, including the recent financial crisis, suggesting that humans do not always behave rationally, but often make seemingly random and suboptimal decisions. Here we propose to reconcile these contradictory perspectives by developing a simple binary-choice model that takes evolutionary consequences of decisions into account as well as the role of intelligence, which we define as any ability of an individual to increase its genetic success. If no intelligence is present, our model produces results consistent with prior literature and shows that risks that are independent across individuals in a generation generally lead to risk-neutral behaviors, but that risks that are correlated across a generation can lead to behaviors such as risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, and randomization. When intelligence is present the nature of risk also matters, and we show that even when risks are independent, either risk-neutral behavior or probability matching will occur depending upon the cost of intelligence in terms of reproductive success. In the case of correlated risks, we derive an implicit formula that shows how intelligence can emerge via selection, why it may be bounded, and how such bounds typically imply the coexistence of multiple levels and types of intelligence as a reflection of varying environmental conditions. Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population's environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the probability of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints.

An Evolutionary Model of Bounded Rationality and Intelligence

PubMed Central

Brennan, Thomas J.; Lo, Andrew W.

2012-01-01

Background Most economic theories are based on the premise that individuals maximize their own self-interest and correctly incorporate the structure of their environment into all decisions, thanks to human intelligence. The influence of this paradigm goes far beyond academia–it underlies current macroeconomic and monetary policies, and is also an integral part of existing financial regulations. However, there is mounting empirical and experimental evidence, including the recent financial crisis, suggesting that humans do not always behave rationally, but often make seemingly random and suboptimal decisions. Methods and Findings Here we propose to reconcile these contradictory perspectives by developing a simple binary-choice model that takes evolutionary consequences of decisions into account as well as the role of intelligence, which we define as any ability of an individual to increase its genetic success. If no intelligence is present, our model produces results consistent with prior literature and shows that risks that are independent across individuals in a generation generally lead to risk-neutral behaviors, but that risks that are correlated across a generation can lead to behaviors such as risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, and randomization. When intelligence is present the nature of risk also matters, and we show that even when risks are independent, either risk-neutral behavior or probability matching will occur depending upon the cost of intelligence in terms of reproductive success. In the case of correlated risks, we derive an implicit formula that shows how intelligence can emerge via selection, why it may be bounded, and how such bounds typically imply the coexistence of multiple levels and types of intelligence as a reflection of varying environmental conditions. Conclusions Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population’s environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the probability of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints. PMID:23185602

Calibrating random forests for probability estimation.

PubMed

Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2016-09-30

Probabilities can be consistently estimated using random forests. It is, however, unclear how random forests should be updated to make predictions for other centers or at different time points. In this work, we present two approaches for updating random forests for probability estimation. The first method has been proposed by Elkan and may be used for updating any machine learning approach yielding consistent probabilities, so-called probability machines. The second approach is a new strategy specifically developed for random forests. Using the terminal nodes, which represent conditional probabilities, the random forest is first translated to logistic regression models. These are, in turn, used for re-calibration. The two updating strategies were compared in a simulation study and are illustrated with data from the German Stroke Study Collaboration. In most simulation scenarios, both methods led to similar improvements. In the simulation scenario in which the stricter assumptions of Elkan's method were not met, the logistic regression-based re-calibration approach for random forests outperformed Elkan's method. It also performed better on the stroke data than Elkan's method. The strength of Elkan's method is its general applicability to any probability machine. However, if the strict assumptions underlying this approach are not met, the logistic regression-based approach is preferable for updating random forests for probability estimation. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of the random walk finite step on the first-passage probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenkova, Olga; Menshutin, Anton; Shchur, Lev

2018-01-01

A well known connection between first-passage probability of random walk and distribution of electrical potential described by Laplace equation is studied. We simulate random walk in the plane numerically as a discrete time process with fixed step length. We measure first-passage probability to touch the absorbing sphere of radius R in 2D. We found a regular deviation of the first-passage probability from the exact function, which we attribute to the finiteness of the random walk step.

Matched signal detection on graphs: Theory and application to brain imaging data classification.

PubMed

Hu, Chenhui; Sepulcre, Jorge; Johnson, Keith A; Fakhri, Georges E; Lu, Yue M; Li, Quanzheng

2016-01-15

Motivated by recent progress in signal processing on graphs, we have developed a matched signal detection (MSD) theory for signals with intrinsic structures described by weighted graphs. First, we regard graph Laplacian eigenvalues as frequencies of graph-signals and assume that the signal is in a subspace spanned by the first few graph Laplacian eigenvectors associated with lower eigenvalues. The conventional matched subspace detector can be applied to this case. Furthermore, we study signals that may not merely live in a subspace. Concretely, we consider signals with bounded variation on graphs and more general signals that are randomly drawn from a prior distribution. For bounded variation signals, the test is a weighted energy detector. For the random signals, the test statistic is the difference of signal variations on associated graphs, if a degenerate Gaussian distribution specified by the graph Laplacian is adopted. We evaluate the effectiveness of the MSD on graphs both with simulated and real data sets. Specifically, we apply MSD to the brain imaging data classification problem of Alzheimer's disease (AD) based on two independent data sets: 1) positron emission tomography data with Pittsburgh compound-B tracer of 30 AD and 40 normal control (NC) subjects, and 2) resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI) data of 30 early mild cognitive impairment and 20 NC subjects. Our results demonstrate that the MSD approach is able to outperform the traditional methods and help detect AD at an early stage, probably due to the success of exploiting the manifold structure of the data. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lotka-Volterra systems in environments with randomly disordered temporal periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael F.; Gaidai, Oleg

2008-08-01

A generalized Lotka-Volterra model for a pair of interacting populations of predators and prey is studied. The model accounts for the prey’s interspecies competition and therefore is asymptotically stable, whereas its oscillatory behavior is induced by temporal variations in environmental conditions simulated by those in the prey’s reproduction rate. Two models of the variations are considered, each of them combining randomness with “hidden” periodicity. The stationary joint probability density function (PDF) of the number of predators and prey is calculated numerically by the path integration (PI) method based on the use of characteristic functions and the fast Fourier transform. The numerical results match those for the asymptotic case of white-noise variations for which an analytical solution is available. Several examples are studied, with calculations of important characteristics of oscillations, for example the expected rate of up-crossings given the level of the predator number. The calculated PDFs may be of predominantly random (unimodal) or predominantly periodic nature (bimodal). Thus, the PI method has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studies of the dynamics of predator-prey pairs. The method captures the random oscillations as observed in nature, taking into account potential periodicity in the environmental conditions.

Lotka-Volterra systems in environments with randomly disordered temporal periodicity.

PubMed

Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael F; Gaidai, Oleg

2008-08-01

A generalized Lotka-Volterra model for a pair of interacting populations of predators and prey is studied. The model accounts for the prey's interspecies competition and therefore is asymptotically stable, whereas its oscillatory behavior is induced by temporal variations in environmental conditions simulated by those in the prey's reproduction rate. Two models of the variations are considered, each of them combining randomness with "hidden" periodicity. The stationary joint probability density function (PDF) of the number of predators and prey is calculated numerically by the path integration (PI) method based on the use of characteristic functions and the fast Fourier transform. The numerical results match those for the asymptotic case of white-noise variations for which an analytical solution is available. Several examples are studied, with calculations of important characteristics of oscillations, for example the expected rate of up-crossings given the level of the predator number. The calculated PDFs may be of predominantly random (unimodal) or predominantly periodic nature (bimodal). Thus, the PI method has been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for studies of the dynamics of predator-prey pairs. The method captures the random oscillations as observed in nature, taking into account potential periodicity in the environmental conditions.

Soccer Matches as Experiments - How Often Does the 'Best' Team Win?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skinner, Gerald K.; Freeman, G. H.

2009-01-01

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that the best team won. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase thc typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game were radically changed.

Are Soccer Matches Badly Designed Experiments?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skinner, G. K.; Freeman, G. H.

2008-01-01

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one. have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is superior and examine the probability that the outcome of the experiment (match) truly represents the relative abilities of the two teams. Given a final score it is possible by using a Bayesian approach to quantify the probability that it was or was not the case that 'the best team won'. For typical scores, the probability of a misleading result is significant. Modifying the rules of the game to increase the typical number of goals scored would improve the situation, but a level of confidence that would normally be regarded as satisfactory could not be obtained unless the character of the game were radically changed.

Electrophysiological evidence that top-down knowledge controls working memory processing for subsequent visual search.

PubMed

Kawashima, Tomoya; Matsumoto, Eriko

2016-03-23

Items in working memory guide visual attention toward a memory-matching object. Recent studies have shown that when searching for an object this attentional guidance can be modulated by knowing the probability that the target will match an item in working memory. Here, we recorded the P3 and contralateral delay activity to investigate how top-down knowledge controls the processing of working memory items. Participants performed memory task (recognition only) and memory-or-search task (recognition or visual search) in which they were asked to maintain two colored oriented bars in working memory. For visual search, we manipulated the probability that target had the same color as memorized items (0, 50, or 100%). Participants knew the probabilities before the task. Target detection in 100% match condition was faster than that in 50% match condition, indicating that participants used their knowledge of the probabilities. We found that the P3 amplitude in 100% condition was larger than in other conditions and that contralateral delay activity amplitude did not vary across conditions. These results suggest that more attention was allocated to the memory items when observers knew in advance that their color would likely match a target. This led to better search performance despite using qualitatively equal working memory representations.

Effect of playing tactics on goal scoring in Norwegian professional soccer.

PubMed

Tenga, Albin; Holme, Ingar; Ronglan, Lars Tore; Bahr, Roald

2010-02-01

Methods that include an assessment of opponent interactions are thought to provide a more valid analysis of team match performance. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of playing tactics on goal scoring by assessing opponent interactions in Norwegian elite soccer. The sample included 203 team possessions leading to goals (cases) and 1688 random team possessions (control group) from 163 of 182 (90%) matches played in the men's professional league during the 2004 season. Multidimensional qualitative data using ten ordered categorical variables were obtained to characterize each team possession. The proportion of goals scored during counterattacks (52%) was higher than during elaborate attacks (48%), while for the control group the proportion using elaborate attacks (59%) was higher than when using counterattacks (41%) (P = 0.002). Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that, for the main variable "team possession type", counterattacks were more effective than elaborate attacks when playing against an imbalanced defence (OR = 1.64; 95% confidence interval: 1.03 to 2.61; P = 0.038). Assessment of opponent interactions is critical to evaluate the effectiveness of offensive playing tactics on the probability of scoring goals, and improves the validity of team match-performance analysis in soccer.

Information Density and Syntactic Repetition.

PubMed

Temperley, David; Gildea, Daniel

2015-11-01

In noun phrase (NP) coordinate constructions (e.g., NP and NP), there is a strong tendency for the syntactic structure of the second conjunct to match that of the first; the second conjunct in such constructions is therefore low in syntactic information. The theory of uniform information density predicts that low-information syntactic constructions will be counterbalanced by high information in other aspects of that part of the sentence, and high-information constructions will be counterbalanced by other low-information components. Three predictions follow: (a) lexical probabilities (measured by N-gram probabilities and head-dependent probabilities) will be lower in second conjuncts than first conjuncts; (b) lexical probabilities will be lower in matching second conjuncts (those whose syntactic expansions match the first conjunct) than nonmatching ones; and (c) syntactic repetition should be especially common for low-frequency NP expansions. Corpus analysis provides support for all three of these predictions. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Using a Betabinomial distribution to estimate the prevalence of adherence to physical activity guidelines among children and youth.

PubMed

Garriguet, Didier

2016-04-01

Estimates of the prevalence of adherence to physical activity guidelines in the population are generally the result of averaging individual probability of adherence based on the number of days people meet the guidelines and the number of days they are assessed. Given this number of active and inactive days (days assessed minus days active), the conditional probability of meeting the guidelines that has been used in the past is a Beta (1 + active days, 1 + inactive days) distribution assuming the probability p of a day being active is bounded by 0 and 1 and averages 50%. A change in the assumption about the distribution of p is required to better match the discrete nature of the data and to better assess the probability of adherence when the percentage of active days in the population differs from 50%. Using accelerometry data from the Canadian Health Measures Survey, the probability of adherence to physical activity guidelines is estimated using a conditional probability given the number of active and inactive days distributed as a Betabinomial(n, a + active days , β + inactive days) assuming that p is randomly distributed as Beta(a, β) where the parameters a and β are estimated by maximum likelihood. The resulting Betabinomial distribution is discrete. For children aged 6 or older, the probability of meeting physical activity guidelines 7 out of 7 days is similar to published estimates. For pre-schoolers, the Betabinomial distribution yields higher estimates of adherence to the guidelines than the Beta distribution, in line with the probability of being active on any given day. In estimating the probability of adherence to physical activity guidelines, the Betabinomial distribution has several advantages over the previously used Beta distribution. It is a discrete distribution and maximizes the richness of accelerometer data.

Reasoning heuristics across the psychosis continuum: the contribution of hypersalient evidence-hypothesis matches.

PubMed

Balzan, Ryan; Delfabbro, Paul; Galletly, Cherrie; Woodward, Todd

2012-01-01

Hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches has recently been proposed as the cognitive mechanism responsible for the cognitive biases which, in turn, may contribute to the formation and maintenance of delusions. However, the construct lacks empirical support. The current paper investigates the possibility that individuals with delusions are hypersalient to evidence-hypothesis matches using a series of cognitive tasks designed to elicit the representativeness and availability reasoning heuristics. It was hypothesised that hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches may increase a person's propensity to rely on judgements of representativeness (i.e., when the probability of an outcome is based on its similarity with its parent population) and availability (i.e., estimates of frequency based on the ease with which relevant events come to mind). A total of 75 participants (25 diagnosed with schizophrenia with a history of delusions; 25 nonclinical delusion-prone; 25 nondelusion-prone controls) completed four heuristics tasks based on the original Tversky and Kahnemann experiments. These included two representativeness tasks ("coin-toss" random sequence task; "lawyer-engineer" base-rates task) and two availability tasks ("famous-names" and "letter-frequency" tasks). The results across these four heuristics tasks showed that participants with schizophrenia were more susceptible than nonclinical groups to both the representativeness and availability reasoning heuristics. These results suggest that delusional ideation is linked to a hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches. The theoretical implications of this cognitive mechanism on the formation and maintenance of delusions are discussed.

A new model for bed load sampler calibration to replace the probability-matching method

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas; Jack Lewis

1993-01-01

In 1977 extensive data were collected to calibrate six Helley-Smith bed load samplers with four sediment particle sizes in a flume at the St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Because sampler data cannot be collected at the same time and place as ""true"" trap measurements, the ""probability-matching...

On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.

2006-01-01

This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

Comonotonic bounds on the survival probabilities in the Lee-Carter model for mortality projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denuit, Michel; Dhaene, Jan

2007-06-01

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, value-at-risk or conditional tail expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in the increasing convex (or stop-loss) sense on these random survival probabilities. These bounds are obtained with the help of comonotonic upper and lower bounds on sums of correlated random variables.

Modelling the Probability of Landslides Impacting Road Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, F. E.; Malamud, B. D.

2012-04-01

During a landslide triggering event, the threat of landslides blocking roads poses a risk to logistics, rescue efforts and communities dependant on those road networks. Here we present preliminary results of a stochastic model we have developed to evaluate the probability of landslides intersecting a simple road network during a landslide triggering event and apply simple network indices to measure the state of the road network in the affected region. A 4000 x 4000 cell array with a 5 m x 5 m resolution was used, with a pre-defined simple road network laid onto it, and landslides 'randomly' dropped onto it. Landslide areas (AL) were randomly selected from a three-parameter inverse gamma probability density function, consisting of a power-law decay of about -2.4 for medium and large values of AL and an exponential rollover for small values of AL; the rollover (maximum probability) occurs at about AL = 400 m2 This statistical distribution was chosen based on three substantially complete triggered landslide inventories recorded in existing literature. The number of landslide areas (NL) selected for each triggered event iteration was chosen to have an average density of 1 landslide km-2, i.e. NL = 400 landslide areas chosen randomly for each iteration, and was based on several existing triggered landslide event inventories. A simple road network was chosen, in a 'T' shape configuration, with one road 1 x 4000 cells (5 m x 20 km) in a 'T' formation with another road 1 x 2000 cells (5 m x 10 km). The landslide areas were then randomly 'dropped' over the road array and indices such as the location, size (ABL) and number of road blockages (NBL) recorded. This process was performed 500 times (iterations) in a Monte-Carlo type simulation. Initial results show that for a landslide triggering event with 400 landslides over a 400 km2 region, the number of road blocks per iteration, NBL,ranges from 0 to 7. The average blockage area for the 500 iterations (A¯ BL) is about 3000 m2, which closely matches the value of A¯ L for the triggered landslide inventories. We further find that over the 500 iterations, the probability of a given number of road blocks occurring on any given iteration, p(NBL) as a function of NBL, follows reasonably well a three-parameter inverse gamma probability density distribution with an exponential rollover (i.e., the most frequent value) at NBL = 1.3. In this paper we have begun to calculate the probability of the number of landslides blocking roads during a triggering event, and have found that this follows an inverse-gamma distribution, which is similar to that found for the statistics of landslide areas resulting from triggers. As we progress to model more realistic road networks, this work will aid in both long-term and disaster management for road networks by allowing probabilistic assessment of road network potential damage during different magnitude landslide triggering event scenarios.

Case−Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile

PubMed Central

Matute, Isabel; González, Claudia; Delgado, Iris; Poffald, Lucy; Pedroni, Elena; Alfaro, Tania; Hirmas, Macarena; Nájera, Manuel; Gormaz, Ana; López, Darío; Loayza, Sergio; Ferreccio, Catterina; Gallegos, Doris; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Vial, Pablo; Aguilera, Ximena

2017-01-01

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case−control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012−March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health. PMID:28628448

From scores to face templates: a model-based approach.

PubMed

Mohanty, Pranab; Sarkar, Sudeep; Kasturi, Rangachar

2007-12-01

Regeneration of templates from match scores has security and privacy implications related to any biometric authentication system. We propose a novel paradigm to reconstruct face templates from match scores using a linear approach. It proceeds by first modeling the behavior of the given face recognition algorithm by an affine transformation. The goal of the modeling is to approximate the distances computed by a face recognition algorithm between two faces by distances between points, representing these faces, in an affine space. Given this space, templates from an independent image set (break-in) are matched only once with the enrolled template of the targeted subject and match scores are recorded. These scores are then used to embed the targeted subject in the approximating affine (non-orthogonal) space. Given the coordinates of the targeted subject in the affine space, the original template of the targeted subject is reconstructed using the inverse of the affine transformation. We demonstrate our ideas using three, fundamentally different, face recognition algorithms: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Mahalanobis cosine distance measure, Bayesian intra-extrapersonal classifier (BIC), and a feature-based commercial algorithm. To demonstrate the independence of the break-in set with the gallery set, we select face templates from two different databases: Face Recognition Grand Challenge (FRGC) and Facial Recognition Technology (FERET) Database (FERET). With an operational point set at 1 percent False Acceptance Rate (FAR) and 99 percent True Acceptance Rate (TAR) for 1,196 enrollments (FERET gallery), we show that at most 600 attempts (score computations) are required to achieve a 73 percent chance of breaking in as a randomly chosen target subject for the commercial face recognition system. With similar operational set up, we achieve a 72 percent and 100 percent chance of breaking in for the Bayesian and PCA based face recognition systems, respectively. With three different levels of score quantization, we achieve 69 percent, 68 percent and 49 percent probability of break-in, indicating the robustness of our proposed scheme to score quantization. We also show that the proposed reconstruction scheme has 47 percent more probability of breaking in as a randomly chosen target subject for the commercial system as compared to a hill climbing approach with the same number of attempts. Given that the proposed template reconstruction method uses distinct face templates to reconstruct faces, this work exposes a more severe form of vulnerability than a hill climbing kind of attack where incrementally different versions of the same face are used. Also, the ability of the proposed approach to reconstruct actual face templates of the users increases privacy concerns in biometric systems.

Average probability that a "cold hit" in a DNA database search results in an erroneous attribution.

PubMed

Song, Yun S; Patil, Anand; Murphy, Erin E; Slatkin, Montgomery

2009-01-01

We consider a hypothetical series of cases in which the DNA profile of a crime-scene sample is found to match a known profile in a DNA database (i.e., a "cold hit"), resulting in the identification of a suspect based only on genetic evidence. We show that the average probability that there is another person in the population whose profile matches the crime-scene sample but who is not in the database is approximately 2(N - d)p(A), where N is the number of individuals in the population, d is the number of profiles in the database, and p(A) is the average match probability (AMP) for the population. The AMP is estimated by computing the average of the probabilities that two individuals in the population have the same profile. We show further that if a priori each individual in the population is equally likely to have left the crime-scene sample, then the average probability that the database search attributes the crime-scene sample to a wrong person is (N - d)p(A).

Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model

PubMed Central

Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul SF

2015-01-01

Background Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. Objective The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. Methods There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric “Screening Efficiency” that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Results Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30%. Conclusions Individuals in China with high suicide probability are recognizable by profile and text-based information from microblogs. Although there is still much space to improve the performance of classification models in the future, this study may shed light on preliminary screening of risky individuals via machine learning algorithms, which can work side-by-side with expert scrutiny to increase efficiency in large-scale-surveillance of suicide probability from online social media. PMID:26543921

Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model.

PubMed

Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul Sf; Zhu, Tingshao

2015-01-01

Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric "Screening Efficiency" that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30%. Individuals in China with high suicide probability are recognizable by profile and text-based information from microblogs. Although there is still much space to improve the performance of classification models in the future, this study may shed light on preliminary screening of risky individuals via machine learning algorithms, which can work side-by-side with expert scrutiny to increase efficiency in large-scale-surveillance of suicide probability from online social media.

Time-correlated gust loads using matched filter theory and random process theory - A new way of looking at things

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pototzky, Anthony S.; Zeiler, Thomas A.; Perry, Boyd, III

1989-01-01

This paper describes and illustrates two ways of performing time-correlated gust-load calculations. The first is based on Matched Filter Theory; the second on Random Process Theory. Both approaches yield theoretically identical results and represent novel applications of the theories, are computationally fast, and may be applied to other dynamic-response problems. A theoretical development and example calculations using both Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory approaches are presented.

Time-correlated gust loads using Matched-Filter Theory and Random-Process Theory: A new way of looking at things

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pototzky, Anthony S.; Zeiler, Thomas A.; Perry, Boyd, III

1989-01-01

Two ways of performing time-correlated gust-load calculations are described and illustrated. The first is based on Matched Filter Theory; the second on Random Process Theory. Both approaches yield theoretically identical results and represent novel applications of the theories, are computationally fast, and may be applied to other dynamic-response problems. A theoretical development and example calculations using both Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory approaches are presented.

Training in two-tier labor markets: The role of job match quality.

PubMed

Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre; van Huizen, Thomas

2015-07-01

This study examines training investments in two-tier labor markets, focusing on the role of job match quality. Temporary workers are in general more likely than permanent workers to leave their employer and therefore are less likely to receive employer-funded training. However, as firms prefer to continue productive job matches, we hypothesize that the negative effect of holding a temporary contract on the probability to be trained diminishes with the quality of the job match. Using a recent longitudinal survey from the Netherlands, we find that temporary workers indeed participate less frequently in firm-sponsored training. However, this effect is fully driven by mismatches: holding a temporary contract does not significantly decrease the probability to receive training for workers in good job matches. Depending on match quality, a temporary job can either be a stepping stone or a dead-end. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multi-part matching strategy for mapping LOINC with laboratory terminologies

PubMed Central

Lee, Li-Hui; Groß, Anika; Hartung, Michael; Liou, Der-Ming; Rahm, Erhard

2014-01-01

Objective To address the problem of mapping local laboratory terminologies to Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes (LOINC). To study different ontology matching algorithms and investigate how the probability of term combinations in LOINC helps to increase match quality and reduce manual effort. Materials and methods We proposed two matching strategies: full name and multi-part. The multi-part approach also considers the occurrence probability of combined concept parts. It can further recommend possible combinations of concept parts to allow more local terms to be mapped. Three real-world laboratory databases from Taiwanese hospitals were used to validate the proposed strategies with respect to different quality measures and execution run time. A comparison with the commonly used tool, Regenstrief LOINC Mapping Assistant (RELMA) Lab Auto Mapper (LAM), was also carried out. Results The new multi-part strategy yields the best match quality, with F-measure values between 89% and 96%. It can automatically match 70–85% of the laboratory terminologies to LOINC. The recommendation step can further propose mapping to (proposed) LOINC concepts for 9–20% of the local terminology concepts. On average, 91% of the local terminology concepts can be correctly mapped to existing or newly proposed LOINC concepts. Conclusions The mapping quality of the multi-part strategy is significantly better than that of LAM. It enables domain experts to perform LOINC matching with little manual work. The probability of term combinations proved to be a valuable strategy for increasing the quality of match results, providing recommendations for proposed LOINC conepts, and decreasing the run time for match processing. PMID:24363318

Models of multidimensional discrete distribution of probabilities of random variables in information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Yu Yu; Minin, Yu V.; Ivanova, O. G.; Morozova, O. N.

2018-03-01

Multidimensional discrete distributions of probabilities of independent random values were received. Their one-dimensional distribution is widely used in probability theory. Producing functions of those multidimensional distributions were also received.

Conditional Random Field-Based Offline Map Matching for Indoor Environments

PubMed Central

Bataineh, Safaa; Bahillo, Alfonso; Díez, Luis Enrique; Onieva, Enrique; Bataineh, Ikram

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present an offline map matching technique designed for indoor localization systems based on conditional random fields (CRF). The proposed algorithm can refine the results of existing indoor localization systems and match them with the map, using loose coupling between the existing localization system and the proposed map matching technique. The purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of using the CRF technique in offline map matching problems for different scenarios and parameters. The algorithm was applied to several real and simulated trajectories of different lengths. The results were then refined and matched with the map using the CRF algorithm. PMID:27537892

Conditional Random Field-Based Offline Map Matching for Indoor Environments.

PubMed

Bataineh, Safaa; Bahillo, Alfonso; Díez, Luis Enrique; Onieva, Enrique; Bataineh, Ikram

2016-08-16

In this paper, we present an offline map matching technique designed for indoor localization systems based on conditional random fields (CRF). The proposed algorithm can refine the results of existing indoor localization systems and match them with the map, using loose coupling between the existing localization system and the proposed map matching technique. The purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of using the CRF technique in offline map matching problems for different scenarios and parameters. The algorithm was applied to several real and simulated trajectories of different lengths. The results were then refined and matched with the map using the CRF algorithm.

Taking the easy way out? Increasing implementation effort reduces probability maximizing under cognitive load.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-07-01

Cognitive load has previously been found to have a positive effect on strategy selection in repeated risky choice. Specifically, whereas inferior probability matching often prevails under single-task conditions, optimal probability maximizing sometimes dominates when a concurrent task competes for cognitive resources. We examined the extent to which this seemingly beneficial effect of increased task demands hinges on the effort required to implement each of the choice strategies. Probability maximizing typically involves a simple repeated response to a single option, whereas probability matching requires choice proportions to be tracked carefully throughout a sequential choice task. Here, we flipped this pattern by introducing a manipulation that made the implementation of maximizing more taxing and, at the same time, allowed decision makers to probability match via a simple repeated response to a single option. The results from two experiments showed that increasing the implementation effort of probability maximizing resulted in decreased adoption rates of this strategy. This was the case both when decision makers simultaneously learned about the outcome probabilities and responded to a dual task (Exp. 1) and when these two aspects were procedurally separated in two distinct stages (Exp. 2). We conclude that the effort involved in implementing a choice strategy is a key factor in shaping repeated choice under uncertainty. Moreover, highlighting the importance of implementation effort casts new light on the sometimes surprising and inconsistent effects of cognitive load that have previously been reported in the literature.

Introducing a Method for Calculating the Allocation of Attention in a Cognitive “Two-Armed Bandit” Procedure: Probability Matching Gives Way to Maximizing

PubMed Central

Heyman, Gene M.; Grisanzio, Katherine A.; Liang, Victor

2016-01-01

We tested whether principles that describe the allocation of overt behavior, as in choice experiments, also describe the allocation of cognition, as in attention experiments. Our procedure is a cognitive version of the “two-armed bandit choice procedure.” The two-armed bandit procedure has been of interest to psychologistsand economists because it tends to support patterns of responding that are suboptimal. Each of two alternatives provides rewards according to fixed probabilities. The optimal solution is to choose the alternative with the higher probability of reward on each trial. However, subjects often allocate responses so that the probability of a response approximates its probability of reward. Although it is this result which has attracted most interest, probability matching is not always observed. As a function of monetary incentives, practice, and individual differences, subjects tend to deviate from probability matching toward exclusive preference, as predicted by maximizing. In our version of the two-armed bandit procedure, the monitor briefly displayed two, small adjacent stimuli that predicted correct responses according to fixed probabilities, as in a two-armed bandit procedure. We show that in this setting, a simple linear equation describes the relationship between attention and correct responses, and that the equation’s solution is the allocation of attention between the two stimuli. The calculations showed that attention allocation varied as a function of the degree to which the stimuli predicted correct responses. Linear regression revealed a strong correlation (r = 0.99) between the predictiveness of a stimulus and the probability of attending to it. Nevertheless there were deviations from probability matching, and although small, they were systematic and statistically significant. As in choice studies, attention allocation deviated toward maximizing as a function of practice, feedback, and incentives. Our approach also predicts the frequency of correct guesses and the relationship between attention allocation and response latencies. The results were consistent with these two predictions, the assumptions of the equations used to calculate attention allocation, and recent studies which show that predictiveness and reward are important determinants of attention. PMID:27014109

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ant-inspired density estimation via random walks.

PubMed

Musco, Cameron; Su, Hsin-Hao; Lynch, Nancy A

2017-10-03

Many ant species use distributed population density estimation in applications ranging from quorum sensing, to task allocation, to appraisal of enemy colony strength. It has been shown that ants estimate local population density by tracking encounter rates: The higher the density, the more often the ants bump into each other. We study distributed density estimation from a theoretical perspective. We prove that a group of anonymous agents randomly walking on a grid are able to estimate their density within a small multiplicative error in few steps by measuring their rates of encounter with other agents. Despite dependencies inherent in the fact that nearby agents may collide repeatedly (and, worse, cannot recognize when this happens), our bound nearly matches what would be required to estimate density by independently sampling grid locations. From a biological perspective, our work helps shed light on how ants and other social insects can obtain relatively accurate density estimates via encounter rates. From a technical perspective, our analysis provides tools for understanding complex dependencies in the collision probabilities of multiple random walks. We bound the strength of these dependencies using local mixing properties of the underlying graph. Our results extend beyond the grid to more general graphs, and we discuss applications to size estimation for social networks, density estimation for robot swarms, and random walk-based sampling for sensor networks.

Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities for singleton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory.

PubMed

Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Caliebe, Amke; Jochens, Arne; Willuweit, Sascha; Krawczak, Michael

2013-02-01

Estimation of match probabilities for singleton haplotypes of lineage markers, i.e. for haplotypes observed only once in a reference database augmented by a suspect profile, is an important problem in forensic genetics. We compared the performance of four estimators of singleton match probabilities for Y-STRs, namely the count estimate, both with and without Brenner's so-called 'kappa correction', the surveying estimate, and a previously proposed, but rarely used, coalescent-based approach implemented in the BATWING software. Extensive simulation with BATWING of the underlying population history, haplotype evolution and subsequent database sampling revealed that the coalescent-based approach is characterized by lower bias and lower mean squared error than the uncorrected count estimator and the surveying estimator. Moreover, in contrast to the two count estimators, both the surveying and the coalescent-based approach exhibited a good correlation between the estimated and true match probabilities. However, although its overall performance is thus better than that of any other recognized method, the coalescent-based estimator is still computation-intense on the verge of general impracticability. Its application in forensic practice therefore will have to be limited to small reference databases, or to isolated cases of particular interest, until more powerful algorithms for coalescent simulation have become available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic probability of reinforcement for cooperation: Random game termination in the centipede game.

PubMed

Krockow, Eva M; Colman, Andrew M; Pulford, Briony D

2018-03-01

Experimental games have previously been used to study principles of human interaction. Many such games are characterized by iterated or repeated designs that model dynamic relationships, including reciprocal cooperation. To enable the study of infinite game repetitions and to avoid endgame effects of lower cooperation toward the final game round, investigators have introduced random termination rules. This study extends previous research that has focused narrowly on repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games by conducting a controlled experiment of two-player, random termination Centipede games involving probabilistic reinforcement and characterized by the longest decision sequences reported in the empirical literature to date (24 decision nodes). Specifically, we assessed mean exit points and cooperation rates, and compared the effects of four different termination rules: no random game termination, random game termination with constant termination probability, random game termination with increasing termination probability, and random game termination with decreasing termination probability. We found that although mean exit points were lower for games with shorter expected game lengths, the subjects' cooperativeness was significantly reduced only in the most extreme condition with decreasing computer termination probability and an expected game length of two decision nodes. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Matched-filter algorithm for subpixel spectral detection in hyperspectral image data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borough, Howard C.

1991-11-01

Hyperspectral imagery, spatial imagery with associated wavelength data for every pixel, offers a significant potential for improved detection and identification of certain classes of targets. The ability to make spectral identifications of objects which only partially fill a single pixel (due to range or small size) is of considerable interest. Multiband imagery such as Landsat's 5 and 7 band imagery has demonstrated significant utility in the past. Hyperspectral imaging systems with hundreds of spectral bands offer improved performance. To explore the application of differentpixel spectral detection algorithms a synthesized set of hyperspectral image data (hypercubes) was generated utilizing NASA earth resources and other spectral data. The data was modified using LOWTRAN 7 to model the illumination, atmospheric contributions, attenuations and viewing geometry to represent a nadir view from 10,000 ft. altitude. The base hypercube (HC) represented 16 by 21 spatial pixels with 101 wavelength samples from 0.5 to 2.5 micrometers for each pixel. Insertions were made into the base data to provide random location, random pixel percentage, and random material. Fifteen different hypercubes were generated for blind testing of candidate algorithms. An algorithm utilizing a matched filter in the spectral dimension proved surprisingly good yielding 100% detections for pixels filled greater than 40% with a standard camouflage paint, and a 50% probability of detection for pixels filled 20% with the paint, with no false alarms. The false alarm rate as a function of the number of spectral bands in the range from 101 to 12 bands was measured and found to increase from zero to 50% illustrating the value of a large number of spectral bands. This test was on imagery without system noise; the next step is to incorporate typical system noise sources.

Modeling Training Site Vegetation Coverage Probability with a Random Optimizing Procedure: An Artificial Neural Network Approach.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-05-01

Coverage Probability with a Random Optimization Procedure: An Artificial Neural Network Approach by Biing T. Guan, George Z. Gertner, and Alan B...Modeling Training Site Vegetation Coverage Probability with a Random Optimizing Procedure: An Artificial Neural Network Approach 6. AUTHOR(S) Biing...coverage based on past coverage. Approach A literature survey was conducted to identify artificial neural network analysis techniques applicable for

How to Choose Between Measures of Tinnitus Loudness for Clinical Research? A Report on the Reliability and Validity of an Investigator-Administered Test and a Patient-Reported Measure Using Baseline Data Collected in a Phase IIa Drug Trial.

PubMed

Hall, Deborah A; Mehta, Rajnikant L; Fackrell, Kathryn

2017-09-18

Loudness is a major auditory dimension of tinnitus and is used to diagnose severity, counsel patients, or as a measure of clinical efficacy in audiological research. There is no standard test for tinnitus loudness, but matching and rating methods are popular. This article provides important new knowledge about the reliability and validity of an audiologist-administered tinnitus loudness matching test and a patient-reported tinnitus loudness rating. Retrospective analysis of loudness data for 91 participants with stable subjective tinnitus enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of a novel drug for tinnitus. There were two baseline assessments (screening, Day 1) and a posttreatment assessment (Day 28). About 66%-70% of the variability from screening to Day 1 was attributable to the true score. But measurement error, indicated by the smallest detectable change, was high for both tinnitus loudness matching (20 dB) and tinnitus loudness rating (3.5 units). Only loudness rating captured a sensation that was meaningful to people who lived with the experience of tinnitus. The tinnitus loudness rating performed better against acceptability criteria for reliability and validity than did the tinnitus loudness matching test administered by an audiologist. But the rating question is still limited because it is a single-item instrument and is probably able to detect only large changes (at least 3.5 points).

The use of propensity score methods with survival or time-to-event outcomes: reporting measures of effect similar to those used in randomized experiments.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2014-03-30

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate causal treatment effects in observational studies. In medical and epidemiological studies, outcomes are frequently time-to-event in nature. Propensity-score methods are often applied incorrectly when estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. This article describes how two different propensity score methods (matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting) can be used to estimate the measures of effect that are frequently reported in randomized controlled trials: (i) marginal survival curves, which describe survival in the population if all subjects were treated or if all subjects were untreated; and (ii) marginal hazard ratios. The use of these propensity score methods allows one to replicate the measures of effect that are commonly reported in randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: both absolute and relative reductions in the probability of an event occurring can be determined. We also provide guidance on variable selection for the propensity score model, highlight methods for assessing the balance of baseline covariates between treated and untreated subjects, and describe the implementation of a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of unmeasured confounding variables on the estimated treatment effect when outcomes are time-to-event in nature. The methods in the paper are illustrated by estimating the effect of discharge statin prescribing on the risk of death in a sample of patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. In this tutorial article, we describe and illustrate all the steps necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. © 2013 The authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Balanced Approach to Adaptive Probability Density Estimation.

PubMed

Kovacs, Julio A; Helmick, Cailee; Wriggers, Willy

2017-01-01

Our development of a Fast (Mutual) Information Matching (FIM) of molecular dynamics time series data led us to the general problem of how to accurately estimate the probability density function of a random variable, especially in cases of very uneven samples. Here, we propose a novel Balanced Adaptive Density Estimation (BADE) method that effectively optimizes the amount of smoothing at each point. To do this, BADE relies on an efficient nearest-neighbor search which results in good scaling for large data sizes. Our tests on simulated data show that BADE exhibits equal or better accuracy than existing methods, and visual tests on univariate and bivariate experimental data show that the results are also aesthetically pleasing. This is due in part to the use of a visual criterion for setting the smoothing level of the density estimate. Our results suggest that BADE offers an attractive new take on the fundamental density estimation problem in statistics. We have applied it on molecular dynamics simulations of membrane pore formation. We also expect BADE to be generally useful for low-dimensional applications in other statistical application domains such as bioinformatics, signal processing and econometrics.

Sensitivity Simulation of Compressed Sensing Based Electronic Warfare Receiver Using Orthogonal Matching Pursuit Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

algorithm is used to process CS data. The insufficient nature of the sparcity of the signal adversely affects the signal detection probability for...with equal probability. The scheme was proposed [2] for image processing using single pixel camera, where the field of view was masked by a grid...modulation. The orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) algorithm is used to process CS data. The insufficient nature of the sparcity of the signal

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

How many genetic markers to tag an individual? An empirical assessment of false matching rates among close relatives.

PubMed

Rew, Mary Beth; Robbins, Jooke; Mattila, David; Palsbøll, Per J; Bérube, Martine

2011-04-01

Genetic identification of individuals is now commonplace, enabling the application of tagging methods to elusive species or species that cannot be tagged by traditional methods. A key aspect is determining the number of loci required to ensure that different individuals have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. Closely related individuals are of particular concern because of elevated matching probabilities caused by their recent co-ancestry. This issue may be addressed by increasing the number of loci to a level where full siblings (the relatedness category with the highest matching probability) are expected to have non-matching multi-locus genotypes. However, increasing the number of loci to meet this "full-sib criterion" greatly increases the laboratory effort, which in turn may increase the genotyping error rate resulting in an upward-biased mark-recapture estimate of abundance as recaptures are missed due to genotyping errors. We assessed the contribution of false matches from close relatives among 425 maternally related humpback whales, each genotyped at 20 microsatellite loci. We observed a very low (0.5-4%) contribution to falsely matching samples from pairs of first-order relatives (i.e., parent and offspring or full siblings). The main contribution to falsely matching individuals from close relatives originated from second-order relatives (e.g., half siblings), which was estimated at 9%. In our study, the total number of observed matches agreed well with expectations based upon the matching probability estimated for unrelated individuals, suggesting that the full-sib criterion is overly conservative, and would have required a 280% relative increase in effort. We suggest that, under most circumstances, the overall contribution to falsely matching samples from close relatives is likely to be low, and hence applying the full-sib criterion is unnecessary. In those cases where close relatives may present a significant issue, such as unrepresentative sampling, we propose three different genotyping strategies requiring only a modest increase in effort, which will greatly reduce the number of false matches due to the presence of related individuals.

Model for spectral and chromatographic data

DOEpatents

Jarman, Kristin [Richland, WA; Willse, Alan [Richland, WA; Wahl, Karen [Richland, WA; Wahl, Jon [Richland, WA

2002-11-26

A method and apparatus using a spectral analysis technique are disclosed. In one form of the invention, probabilities are selected to characterize the presence (and in another form, also a quantification of a characteristic) of peaks in an indexed data set for samples that match a reference species, and other probabilities are selected for samples that do not match the reference species. An indexed data set is acquired for a sample, and a determination is made according to techniques exemplified herein as to whether the sample matches or does not match the reference species. When quantification of peak characteristics is undertaken, the model is appropriately expanded, and the analysis accounts for the characteristic model and data. Further techniques are provided to apply the methods and apparatuses to process control, cluster analysis, hypothesis testing, analysis of variance, and other procedures involving multiple comparisons of indexed data.

Impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach.

PubMed

Chandrasekar, A; Rakkiyappan, R; Cao, Jinde

2015-10-01

This paper studies the impulsive synchronization of Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities via multiple integral approach. The array of neural networks are coupled in a random fashion which is governed by Bernoulli random variable. The aim of this paper is to obtain the synchronization criteria, which is suitable for both exactly known and partly unknown transition probabilities such that the coupled neural network is synchronized with mixed time-delay. The considered impulsive effects can be synchronized at partly unknown transition probabilities. Besides, a multiple integral approach is also proposed to strengthen the Markovian jumping randomly coupled neural networks with partly unknown transition probabilities. By making use of Kronecker product and some useful integral inequalities, a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional was designed for handling the coupled neural network with mixed delay and then impulsive synchronization criteria are solvable in a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Simple Artificial Life Model Explains Irrational Behavior in Human Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Feher da Silva, Carolina; Baldo, Marcus Vinícius Chrysóstomo

2012-01-01

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats’ neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments. PMID:22563454

A simple artificial life model explains irrational behavior in human decision-making.

PubMed

Feher da Silva, Carolina; Baldo, Marcus Vinícius Chrysóstomo

2012-01-01

Although praised for their rationality, humans often make poor decisions, even in simple situations. In the repeated binary choice experiment, an individual has to choose repeatedly between the same two alternatives, where a reward is assigned to one of them with fixed probability. The optimal strategy is to perseverate with choosing the alternative with the best expected return. Whereas many species perseverate, humans tend to match the frequencies of their choices to the frequencies of the alternatives, a sub-optimal strategy known as probability matching. Our goal was to find the primary cognitive constraints under which a set of simple evolutionary rules can lead to such contrasting behaviors. We simulated the evolution of artificial populations, wherein the fitness of each animat (artificial animal) depended on its ability to predict the next element of a sequence made up of a repeating binary string of varying size. When the string was short relative to the animats' neural capacity, they could learn it and correctly predict the next element of the sequence. When it was long, they could not learn it, turning to the next best option: to perseverate. Animats from the last generation then performed the task of predicting the next element of a non-periodical binary sequence. We found that, whereas animats with smaller neural capacity kept perseverating with the best alternative as before, animats with larger neural capacity, which had previously been able to learn the pattern of repeating strings, adopted probability matching, being outperformed by the perseverating animats. Our results demonstrate how the ability to make predictions in an environment endowed with regular patterns may lead to probability matching under less structured conditions. They point to probability matching as a likely by-product of adaptive cognitive strategies that were crucial in human evolution, but may lead to sub-optimal performances in other environments.

A Single Mechanism Can Account for Human Perception of Depth in Mixed Correlation Random Dot Stereograms

PubMed Central

Cumming, Bruce G.

2016-01-01

In order to extract retinal disparity from a visual scene, the brain must match corresponding points in the left and right retinae. This computationally demanding task is known as the stereo correspondence problem. The initial stage of the solution to the correspondence problem is generally thought to consist of a correlation-based computation. However, recent work by Doi et al suggests that human observers can see depth in a class of stimuli where the mean binocular correlation is 0 (half-matched random dot stereograms). Half-matched random dot stereograms are made up of an equal number of correlated and anticorrelated dots, and the binocular energy model—a well-known model of V1 binocular complex cells—fails to signal disparity here. This has led to the proposition that a second, match-based computation must be extracting disparity in these stimuli. Here we show that a straightforward modification to the binocular energy model—adding a point output nonlinearity—is by itself sufficient to produce cells that are disparity-tuned to half-matched random dot stereograms. We then show that a simple decision model using this single mechanism can reproduce psychometric functions generated by human observers, including reduced performance to large disparities and rapidly updating dot patterns. The model makes predictions about how performance should change with dot size in half-matched stereograms and temporal alternation in correlation, which we test in human observers. We conclude that a single correlation-based computation, based directly on already-known properties of V1 neurons, can account for the literature on mixed correlation random dot stereograms. PMID:27196696

ADAPTIVE MATCHING IN RANDOMIZED TRIALS AND OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

PubMed Central

van der Laan, Mark J.; Balzer, Laura B.; Petersen, Maya L.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY In many randomized and observational studies the allocation of treatment among a sample of n independent and identically distributed units is a function of the covariates of all sampled units. As a result, the treatment labels among the units are possibly dependent, complicating estimation and posing challenges for statistical inference. For example, cluster randomized trials frequently sample communities from some target population, construct matched pairs of communities from those included in the sample based on some metric of similarity in baseline community characteristics, and then randomly allocate a treatment and a control intervention within each matched pair. In this case, the observed data can neither be represented as the realization of n independent random variables, nor, contrary to current practice, as the realization of n/2 independent random variables (treating the matched pair as the independent sampling unit). In this paper we study estimation of the average causal effect of a treatment under experimental designs in which treatment allocation potentially depends on the pre-intervention covariates of all units included in the sample. We define efficient targeted minimum loss based estimators for this general design, present a theorem that establishes the desired asymptotic normality of these estimators and allows for asymptotically valid statistical inference, and discuss implementation of these estimators. We further investigate the relative asymptotic efficiency of this design compared with a design in which unit-specific treatment assignment depends only on the units’ covariates. Our findings have practical implications for the optimal design and analysis of pair matched cluster randomized trials, as well as for observational studies in which treatment decisions may depend on characteristics of the entire sample. PMID:25097298

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Employer Matching of Employees' Monetary Contributions to Deposit Contracts to Promote Weight Loss.

PubMed

Kullgren, Jeffrey T; Troxel, Andrea B; Loewenstein, George; Norton, Laurie A; Gatto, Dana; Tao, Yuanyuan; Zhu, Jingsan; Schofield, Heather; Shea, Judy A; Asch, David A; Pellathy, Thomas; Driggers, Jay; Volpp, Kevin G

2016-07-01

To test whether employer matching of employees' monetary contributions increases employees' (1) participation in deposit contracts to promote weight loss and (2) weight loss. A 36-week randomized trial. Large employer in the northeast United States. One hundred thirty-two obese employees. Over 24 weeks, participants were asked to lose 24 pounds and randomized to monthly weigh-ins or daily weigh-ins with monthly opportunities to deposit $1 to $3 per day that was not matched, matched 1:1, or matched 2:1. Deposits and matched funds were returned to participants for each day they were below their goal weight. Rates of making ≥1 deposit, weight loss at 24 weeks (primary outcome), and 36 weeks. Deposit rates were compared using χ(2) tests. Weight loss was compared using t tests. Among participants eligible to make deposits, 29% made ≥1 deposit and matching did not increase participation. At 24 weeks, control participants gained an average of 1.0 pound, whereas 1:1 match participants lost an average of 5.3 pounds (P = .005). After 36 weeks, control participants gained an average of 2.1 pounds, whereas no match participants lost an average of 5.1 pounds (P = .008). Participation in deposit contracts to promote weight loss was low, and matching deposits did not increase participation. For deposit contracts to impact population health, ongoing participation will need to be higher. © The Author(s) 2016.

People's Intuitions about Randomness and Probability: An Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Rovira, Katia; Lecoutre, Bruno; Poitevineau, Jacques

2006-01-01

What people mean by randomness should be taken into account when teaching statistical inference. This experiment explored subjective beliefs about randomness and probability through two successive tasks. Subjects were asked to categorize 16 familiar items: 8 real items from everyday life experiences, and 8 stochastic items involving a repeatable…

Adaptive Randomization of Veliparib-Carboplatin Treatment in Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Rugo, Hope S; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; DeMichele, Angela; Yau, Christina; van 't Veer, Laura J; Buxton, Meredith B; Hogarth, Michael; Hylton, Nola M; Paoloni, Melissa; Perlmutter, Jane; Symmans, W Fraser; Yee, Douglas; Chien, A Jo; Wallace, Anne M; Kaplan, Henry G; Boughey, Judy C; Haddad, Tufia C; Albain, Kathy S; Liu, Minetta C; Isaacs, Claudine; Khan, Qamar J; Lang, Julie E; Viscusi, Rebecca K; Pusztai, Lajos; Moulder, Stacy L; Chui, Stephen Y; Kemmer, Kathleen A; Elias, Anthony D; Edmiston, Kirsten K; Euhus, David M; Haley, Barbara B; Nanda, Rita; Northfelt, Donald W; Tripathy, Debasish; Wood, William C; Ewing, Cheryl; Schwab, Richard; Lyandres, Julia; Davis, Sarah E; Hirst, Gillian L; Sanil, Ashish; Berry, Donald A; Esserman, Laura J

2016-07-07

The genetic and clinical heterogeneity of breast cancer makes the identification of effective therapies challenging. We designed I-SPY 2, a phase 2, multicenter, adaptively randomized trial to screen multiple experimental regimens in combination with standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. The goal is to match experimental regimens with responding cancer subtypes. We report results for veliparib, a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor, combined with carboplatin. In this ongoing trial, women are eligible for participation if they have stage II or III breast cancer with a tumor 2.5 cm or larger in diameter; cancers are categorized into eight biomarker subtypes on the basis of status with regard to human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), hormone receptors, and a 70-gene assay. Patients undergo adaptive randomization within each biomarker subtype to receive regimens that have better performance than the standard therapy. Regimens are evaluated within 10 biomarker signatures (i.e., prospectively defined combinations of biomarker subtypes). Veliparib-carboplatin plus standard therapy was considered for HER2-negative tumors and was therefore evaluated in 3 signatures. The primary end point is pathological complete response. Tumor volume changes measured by magnetic resonance imaging during treatment are used to predict whether a patient will have a pathological complete response. Regimens move on from phase 2 if and when they have a high Bayesian predictive probability of success in a subsequent phase 3 neoadjuvant trial within the biomarker signature in which they performed well. With regard to triple-negative breast cancer, veliparib-carboplatin had an 88% predicted probability of success in a phase 3 trial. A total of 72 patients were randomly assigned to receive veliparib-carboplatin, and 44 patients were concurrently assigned to receive control therapy; at the completion of chemotherapy, the estimated rates of pathological complete response in the triple-negative population were 51% (95% Bayesian probability interval [PI], 36 to 66%) in the veliparib-carboplatin group versus 26% (95% PI, 9 to 43%) in the control group. The toxicity of veliparib-carboplatin was greater than that of the control. The process used in our trial showed that veliparib-carboplatin added to standard therapy resulted in higher rates of pathological complete response than standard therapy alone specifically in triple-negative breast cancer. (Funded by the QuantumLeap Healthcare Collaborative and others; I-SPY 2 TRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01042379.).

Group Matching: Is This a Research Technique to Be Avoided?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Donald C.; Klein, Donald F.

1988-01-01

The variance of the sample difference and the power of the "F" test for mean differences were studied under group matching on covariates and also under random assignment. Results shed light on systematic assignment procedures advocated to provide more precise estimates of treatment effects than simple random assignment. (TJH)

A polymer, random walk model for the size-distribution of large DNA fragments after high linear energy transfer radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponomarev, A. L.; Brenner, D.; Hlatky, L. R.; Sachs, R. K.

2000-01-01

DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) produced by densely ionizing radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. Stochastic DSB clustering at large scales, from > 100 Mbp down to < 0.01 Mbp, is modeled using computer simulations and analytic equations. A random-walk, coarse-grained polymer model for chromatin is combined with a simple track structure model in Monte Carlo software called DNAbreak and is applied to data on alpha-particle irradiation of V-79 cells. The chromatin model neglects molecular details but systematically incorporates an increase in average spatial separation between two DNA loci as the number of base-pairs between the loci increases. Fragment-size distributions obtained using DNAbreak match data on large fragments about as well as distributions previously obtained with a less mechanistic approach. Dose-response relations, linear at small doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, are obtained. They are found to be non-linear when the dose becomes so large that there is a significant probability of overlapping or close juxtaposition, along one chromosome, for different DSB clusters from different tracks. The non-linearity is more evident for large fragments than for small. The DNAbreak results furnish an example of the RLC (randomly located clusters) analytic formalism, which generalizes the broken-stick fragment-size distribution of the random-breakage model that is often applied to low-LET data.

On random field Completely Automated Public Turing Test to Tell Computers and Humans Apart generation.

PubMed

Kouritzin, Michael A; Newton, Fraser; Wu, Biao

2013-04-01

Herein, we propose generating CAPTCHAs through random field simulation and give a novel, effective and efficient algorithm to do so. Indeed, we demonstrate that sufficient information about word tests for easy human recognition is contained in the site marginal probabilities and the site-to-nearby-site covariances and that these quantities can be embedded directly into certain conditional probabilities, designed for effective simulation. The CAPTCHAs are then partial random realizations of the random CAPTCHA word. We start with an initial random field (e.g., randomly scattered letter pieces) and use Gibbs resampling to re-simulate portions of the field repeatedly using these conditional probabilities until the word becomes human-readable. The residual randomness from the initial random field together with the random implementation of the CAPTCHA word provide significant resistance to attack. This results in a CAPTCHA, which is unrecognizable to modern optical character recognition but is recognized about 95% of the time in a human readability study.

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1972-01-01

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

Ant-inspired density estimation via random walks

PubMed Central

Musco, Cameron; Su, Hsin-Hao

2017-01-01

Many ant species use distributed population density estimation in applications ranging from quorum sensing, to task allocation, to appraisal of enemy colony strength. It has been shown that ants estimate local population density by tracking encounter rates: The higher the density, the more often the ants bump into each other. We study distributed density estimation from a theoretical perspective. We prove that a group of anonymous agents randomly walking on a grid are able to estimate their density within a small multiplicative error in few steps by measuring their rates of encounter with other agents. Despite dependencies inherent in the fact that nearby agents may collide repeatedly (and, worse, cannot recognize when this happens), our bound nearly matches what would be required to estimate density by independently sampling grid locations. From a biological perspective, our work helps shed light on how ants and other social insects can obtain relatively accurate density estimates via encounter rates. From a technical perspective, our analysis provides tools for understanding complex dependencies in the collision probabilities of multiple random walks. We bound the strength of these dependencies using local mixing properties of the underlying graph. Our results extend beyond the grid to more general graphs, and we discuss applications to size estimation for social networks, density estimation for robot swarms, and random walk-based sampling for sensor networks. PMID:28928146

Hybrid computer technique yields random signal probability distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cameron, W. D.

1965-01-01

Hybrid computer determines the probability distributions of instantaneous and peak amplitudes of random signals. This combined digital and analog computer system reduces the errors and delays of manual data analysis.

Influences of Source - Item Contingency and Schematic Knowledge on Source Monitoring: Tests of the Probability-Matching Account

PubMed Central

Bayen, Ute J.; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G.

2010-01-01

The authors investigated conditions under which judgments in source-monitoring tasks are influenced by prior schematic knowledge. According to a probability-matching account of source guessing (Spaniol & Bayen, 2002), when people do not remember the source of information, they match source guessing probabilities to the perceived contingency between sources and item types. When they do not have a representation of a contingency, they base their guesses on prior schematic knowledge. The authors provide support for this account in two experiments with sources presenting information that was expected for one source and somewhat unexpected for another. Schema-relevant information about the sources was provided at the time of encoding. When contingency perception was impeded by dividing attention, participants showed schema-based guessing (Experiment 1). Manipulating source - item contingency also affected guessing (Experiment 2). When this contingency was schema-inconsistent, it superseded schema-based expectations and led to schema-inconsistent guessing. PMID:21603251

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Continuous-Time Classical and Quantum Random Walk on Direct Product of Cayley Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimi, S.; Jafarizadeh, M. A.

2009-06-01

In this paper we define direct product of graphs and give a recipe for obtaining probability of observing particle on vertices in the continuous-time classical and quantum random walk. In the recipe, the probability of observing particle on direct product of graph is obtained by multiplication of probability on the corresponding to sub-graphs, where this method is useful to determining probability of walk on complicated graphs. Using this method, we calculate the probability of continuous-time classical and quantum random walks on many of finite direct product Cayley graphs (complete cycle, complete Kn, charter and n-cube). Also, we inquire that the classical state the stationary uniform distribution is reached as t → ∞ but for quantum state is not always satisfied.

Range-azimuth decouple beamforming for frequency diverse array with Costas-sequence modulated frequency offsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhe; Wang, Wen-Qin; Shao, Huaizong

2016-12-01

Different from the phased-array using the same carrier frequency for each transmit element, the frequency diverse array (FDA) uses a small frequency offset across the array elements to produce range-angle-dependent transmit beampattern. FDA radar provides new application capabilities and potentials due to its range-dependent transmit array beampattern, but the FDA using linearly increasing frequency offsets will produce a range and angle coupled transmit beampattern. In order to decouple the range-azimuth beampattern for FDA radar, this paper proposes a uniform linear array (ULA) FDA using Costas-sequence modulated frequency offsets to produce random-like energy distribution in the transmit beampattern and thumbtack transmit-receive beampattern. In doing so, the range and angle of targets can be unambiguously estimated through matched filtering and subspace decomposition algorithms in the receiver signal processor. Moreover, random-like energy distributed beampattern can also be utilized for low probability of intercept (LPI) radar applications. Numerical results show that the proposed scheme outperforms the standard FDA in focusing the transmit energy, especially in the range dimension.

Residence time of symmetric random walkers in a strip with large reflective obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciallella, Alessandro; Cirillo, Emilio N. M.; Sohier, Julien

2018-05-01

We study the effect of a large obstacle on the so-called residence time, i.e., the time that a particle performing a symmetric random walk in a rectangular (two-dimensional, 2D) domain needs to cross the strip. We observe complex behavior: We find out that the residence time does not depend monotonically on the geometric properties of the obstacle, such as its width, length, and position. In some cases, due to the presence of the obstacle, the mean residence time is shorter with respect to the one measured for the obstacle-free strip. We explain the residence time behavior by developing a one-dimensional (1D) analog of the 2D model where the role of the obstacle is played by two defect sites having smaller probability to be crossed with respect to all the other regular sites. The 1D and 2D models behave similarly, but in the 1D case we are able to compute exactly the residence time, finding a perfect match with the Monte Carlo simulations.

Estimating parameters for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

PubMed

Brown, Adrian P; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Boyd, James H

2017-07-10

Probabilistic record linkage is a process used to bring together person-based records from within the same dataset (de-duplication) or from disparate datasets using pairwise comparisons and matching probabilities. The linkage strategy and associated match probabilities are often estimated through investigations into data quality and manual inspection. However, as privacy-preserved datasets comprise encrypted data, such methods are not possible. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the probabilities and threshold values for probabilistic privacy-preserved record linkage using Bloom filters. Our method was tested through a simulation study using synthetic data, followed by an application using real-world administrative data. Synthetic datasets were generated with error rates from zero to 20% error. Our method was used to estimate parameters (probabilities and thresholds) for de-duplication linkages. Linkage quality was determined by F-measure. Each dataset was privacy-preserved using separate Bloom filters for each field. Match probabilities were estimated using the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm on the privacy-preserved data. Threshold cut-off values were determined by an extension to the EM algorithm allowing linkage quality to be estimated for each possible threshold. De-duplication linkages of each privacy-preserved dataset were performed using both estimated and calculated probabilities. Linkage quality using the F-measure at the estimated threshold values was also compared to the highest F-measure. Three large administrative datasets were used to demonstrate the applicability of the probability and threshold estimation technique on real-world data. Linkage of the synthetic datasets using the estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was comparable to the F-measure using calculated probabilities, even with up to 20% error. Linkage of the administrative datasets using estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was higher than the F-measure using calculated probabilities. Further, the threshold estimation yielded results for F-measure that were only slightly below the highest possible for those probabilities. The method appears highly accurate across a spectrum of datasets with varying degrees of error. As there are few alternatives for parameter estimation, the approach is a major step towards providing a complete operational approach for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

Random function representation of stationary stochastic vector processes for probability density evolution analysis of wind-induced structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui

2018-06-01

This paper develops a hybrid approach of spectral representation and random function for simulating stationary stochastic vector processes. In the proposed approach, the high-dimensional random variables, included in the original spectral representation (OSR) formula, could be effectively reduced to only two elementary random variables by introducing the random functions that serve as random constraints. Based on this, a satisfactory simulation accuracy can be guaranteed by selecting a small representative point set of the elementary random variables. The probability information of the stochastic excitations can be fully emerged through just several hundred of sample functions generated by the proposed approach. Therefore, combined with the probability density evolution method (PDEM), it could be able to implement dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of engineering structures. For illustrative purposes, a stochastic turbulence wind velocity field acting on a frame-shear-wall structure is simulated by constructing three types of random functions to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach. Careful and in-depth studies concerning the probability density evolution analysis of the wind-induced structure have been conducted so as to better illustrate the application prospects of the proposed approach. Numerical examples also show that the proposed approach possesses a good robustness.

The Effects of Heuristics and Apophenia on Probabilistic Choice.

PubMed

Ellerby, Zack W; Tunney, Richard J

2017-01-01

Given a repeated choice between two or more options with independent and identically distributed reward probabilities, overall pay-offs can be maximized by the exclusive selection of the option with the greatest likelihood of reward. The tendency to match response proportions to reward contingencies is suboptimal. Nevertheless, this behaviour is well documented. A number of explanatory accounts have been proposed for probability matching. These include failed pattern matching, driven by apophenia, and a heuristic-driven response that can be overruled with sufficient deliberation. We report two experiments that were designed to test the relative effects on choice behaviour of both an intuitive versus strategic approach to the task and belief that there was a predictable pattern in the reward sequence, through a combination of both direct experimental manipulation and post-experimental self-report. Mediation analysis was used to model the pathways of effects. Neither of two attempted experimental manipulations of apophenia, nor self-reported levels of apophenia, had a significant effect on proportions of maximizing choices. However, the use of strategy over intuition proved a consistent predictor of maximizing, across all experimental conditions. A parallel analysis was conducted to assess the effect of controlling for individual variance in perceptions of reward contingencies. Although this analysis suggested that apophenia did increase probability matching in the standard task preparation, this effect was found to result from an unforeseen relationship between self-reported apophenia and perceived reward probabilities. A Win-Stay Lose-Shift (WSLS ) analysis indicated no reliable relationship between WSLS and either intuition or strategy use.

Clinician gestalt estimate of pretest probability for acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism in patients with chest pain and dyspnea.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Stubblefield, William B

2014-03-01

Pretest probability helps guide diagnostic testing for patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. Pretest probability derived from the clinician's unstructured gestalt estimate is easier and more readily available than methods that require computation. We compare the diagnostic accuracy of physician gestalt estimate for the pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism with a validated, computerized method. This was a secondary analysis of a prospectively collected, multicenter study. Patients (N=840) had chest pain, dyspnea, nondiagnostic ECGs, and no obvious diagnosis. Clinician gestalt pretest probability for both acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism was assessed by visual analog scale and from the method of attribute matching using a Web-based computer program. Patients were followed for outcomes at 90 days. Clinicians had significantly higher estimates than attribute matching for both acute coronary syndrome (17% versus 4%; P<.001, paired t test) and pulmonary embolism (12% versus 6%; P<.001). The 2 methods had poor correlation for both acute coronary syndrome (r(2)=0.15) and pulmonary embolism (r(2)=0.06). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were lower for clinician estimate compared with the computerized method for acute coronary syndrome: 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51 to 0.77) for clinician gestalt versus 0.78 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.85) for attribute matching. For pulmonary embolism, these values were 0.81 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.92) for clinician gestalt and 0.84 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.93) for attribute matching. Compared with a validated machine-based method, clinicians consistently overestimated pretest probability but on receiver operating curve analysis were as accurate for pulmonary embolism but not acute coronary syndrome. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of Automatic Image Rectification and Registration of Scanned Historical Aerial Photographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. R.; Tseng, Y. H.

2016-06-01

Historical aerial photographs directly provide good evidences of past times. The Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences (RCHSS) of Taiwan Academia Sinica has collected and scanned numerous historical maps and aerial images of Taiwan and China. Some maps or images have been geo-referenced manually, but most of historical aerial images have not been registered since there are no GPS or IMU data for orientation assisting in the past. In our research, we developed an automatic process of matching historical aerial images by SIFT (Scale Invariant Feature Transform) for handling the great quantity of images by computer vision. SIFT is one of the most popular method of image feature extracting and matching. This algorithm extracts extreme values in scale space into invariant image features, which are robust to changing in rotation scale, noise, and illumination. We also use RANSAC (Random sample consensus) to remove outliers, and obtain good conjugated points between photographs. Finally, we manually add control points for registration through least square adjustment based on collinear equation. In the future, we can use image feature points of more photographs to build control image database. Every new image will be treated as query image. If feature points of query image match the features in database, it means that the query image probably is overlapped with control images.With the updating of database, more and more query image can be matched and aligned automatically. Other research about multi-time period environmental changes can be investigated with those geo-referenced temporal spatial data.

The Statistical Fermi Paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maccone, C.

In this paper is provided the statistical generalization of the Fermi paradox. The statistics of habitable planets may be based on a set of ten (and possibly more) astrobiological requirements first pointed out by Stephen H. Dole in his book Habitable planets for man (1964). The statistical generalization of the original and by now too simplistic Dole equation is provided by replacing a product of ten positive numbers by the product of ten positive random variables. This is denoted the SEH, an acronym standing for “Statistical Equation for Habitables”. The proof in this paper is based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the sum of any number of independent random variables, each of which may be ARBITRARILY distributed, approaches a Gaussian (i.e. normal) random variable (Lyapunov form of the CLT). It is then shown that: 1. The new random variable NHab, yielding the number of habitables (i.e. habitable planets) in the Galaxy, follows the log- normal distribution. By construction, the mean value of this log-normal distribution is the total number of habitable planets as given by the statistical Dole equation. 2. The ten (or more) astrobiological factors are now positive random variables. The probability distribution of each random variable may be arbitrary. The CLT in the so-called Lyapunov or Lindeberg forms (that both do not assume the factors to be identically distributed) allows for that. In other words, the CLT "translates" into the SEH by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution for each factor. This is both astrobiologically realistic and useful for any further investigations. 3. By applying the SEH it is shown that the (average) distance between any two nearby habitable planets in the Galaxy may be shown to be inversely proportional to the cubic root of NHab. This distance is denoted by new random variable D. The relevant probability density function is derived, which was named the "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies in 2008. 4. A practical example is then given of how the SEH works numerically. Each of the ten random variables is uniformly distributed around its own mean value as given by Dole (1964) and a standard deviation of 10% is assumed. The conclusion is that the average number of habitable planets in the Galaxy should be around 100 million ±200 million, and the average distance in between any two nearby habitable planets should be about 88 light years ±40 light years. 5. The SEH results are matched against the results of the Statistical Drake Equation from reference 4. As expected, the number of currently communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy turns out to be much smaller than the number of habitable planets (about 10,000 against 100 million, i.e. one ET civilization out of 10,000 habitable planets). The average distance between any two nearby habitable planets is much smaller that the average distance between any two neighbouring ET civilizations: 88 light years vs. 2000 light years, respectively. This means an ET average distance about 20 times higher than the average distance between any pair of adjacent habitable planets. 6. Finally, a statistical model of the Fermi Paradox is derived by applying the above results to the coral expansion model of Galactic colonization. The symbolic manipulator "Macsyma" is used to solve these difficult equations. A new random variable Tcol, representing the time needed to colonize a new planet is introduced, which follows the lognormal distribution, Then the new quotient random variable Tcol/D is studied and its probability density function is derived by Macsyma. Finally a linear transformation of random variables yields the overall time TGalaxy needed to colonize the whole Galaxy. We believe that our mathematical work in deriving this STATISTICAL Fermi Paradox is highly innovative and fruitful for the future.

Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.

PubMed

Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A

2012-01-01

Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.

Does the central limit theorem always apply to phase noise? Some implications for radar problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, John E.; Addison, Stephen R.

2017-05-01

The phase noise problem or Rayleigh problem occurs in all aspects of radar. It is an effect that a radar engineer or physicist always has to take into account as part of a design or in attempt to characterize the physics of a problem such as reverberation. Normally, the mathematical difficulties of phase noise characterization are avoided by assuming the phase noise probability distribution function (PDF) is uniformly distributed, and the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is invoked to argue that the superposition of relatively few random components obey the CLT and hence the superposition can be treated as a normal distribution. By formalizing the characterization of phase noise (see Gray and Alouani) for an individual random variable, the summation of identically distributed random variables is the product of multiple characteristic functions (CF). The product of the CFs for phase noise has a CF that can be analyzed to understand the limitations CLT when applied to phase noise. We mirror Kolmogorov's original proof as discussed in Papoulis to show the CLT can break down for receivers that gather limited amounts of data as well as the circumstances under which it can fail for certain phase noise distributions. We then discuss the consequences of this for matched filter design as well the implications for some physics problems.

Constraining the interior density profile of a Jovian planet from precision gravity field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Movshovitz, Naor; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Helled, Ravit; Hubbard, William B.; Thorngren, Daniel; Mankovich, Chris; Wahl, Sean; Militzer, Burkhard; Durante, Daniele

2017-10-01

The external gravity field of a planetary body is determined by the distribution of mass in its interior. Therefore, a measurement of the external field, properly interpreted, tells us about the interior density profile, ρ(r), which in turn can be used to constrain the composition in the interior and thereby learn about the formation mechanism of the planet. Planetary gravity fields are usually described by the coefficients in an expansion of the gravitational potential. Recently, high precision measurements of these coefficients for Jupiter and Saturn have been made by the radio science instruments on the Juno and Cassini spacecraft, respectively.The resulting coefficients come with an associated uncertainty. And while the task of matching a given density profile with a given set of gravity coefficients is relatively straightforward, the question of how best to account for the uncertainty is not. In essentially all prior work on matching models to gravity field data, inferences about planetary structure have rested on imperfect knowledge of the H/He equation of state and on the assumption of an adiabatic interior. Here we wish to vastly expand the phase space of such calculations. We present a framework for describing all the possible interior density structures of a Jovian planet, constrained only by a given set of gravity coefficients and their associated uncertainties. Our approach is statistical. We produce a random sample of ρ(a) curves drawn from the underlying (and unknown) probability distribution of all curves, where ρ is the density on an interior level surface with equatorial radius a. Since the resulting set of density curves is a random sample, that is, curves appear with frequency proportional to the likelihood of their being consistent with the measured gravity, we can compute probability distributions for any quantity that is a function of ρ, such as central pressure, oblateness, core mass and radius, etc. Our approach is also bayesian, in that it can utilize any prior assumptions about the planet's interior, as necessary, without being overly constrained by them.We demonstrate this approach with a sample of Jupiter interior models based on recent Juno data and discuss prospects for Saturn.

Constraining Saturn's interior density profile from precision gravity field measurement obtained during Grand Finale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Movshovitz, N.; Fortney, J. J.; Helled, R.; Hubbard, W. B.; Mankovich, C.; Thorngren, D.; Wahl, S. M.; Militzer, B.; Durante, D.

2017-12-01

The external gravity field of a planetary body is determined by the distribution of mass in its interior. Therefore, a measurement of the external field, properlyinterpreted, tells us about the interior density profile, ρ(r), which in turn can be used to constrain the composition in the interior and thereby learn about theformation mechanism of the planet. Recently, very high precision measurements of the gravity coefficients for Saturn have been made by the radio science instrument on the Cassini spacecraft during its Grand Finale orbits. The resulting coefficients come with an associated uncertainty. The task of matching a given density profile to a given set of gravity coefficients is relatively straightforward, but the question of how to best account for the uncertainty is not. In essentially all prior work on matching models to gravity field data inferences about planetary structure have rested on assumptions regarding the imperfectly known H/He equation of state and the assumption of an adiabatic interior. Here we wish to vastly expand the phase space of such calculations. We present a framework for describing all the possible interior density structures of a Jovian planet constrained by a given set of gravity coefficients and their associated uncertainties. Our approach is statistical. We produce a random sample of ρ(a) curves drawn from the underlying (and unknown) probability distribution of all curves, where ρ is the density on an interior level surface with equatorial radius a. Since the resulting set of density curves is a random sample, that is, curves appear with frequency proportional to the likelihood of their being consistent with the measured gravity, we can compute probability distributions for any quantity that is a function of ρ, such as central pressure, oblateness, core mass and radius, etc. Our approach is also Bayesian, in that it can utilize any prior assumptions about the planet's interior, as necessary, without being overly constrained by them. We apply this approach to produce a sample of Saturn interior models based on gravity data from Grand Finale orbits and discuss their implications.

Linking of uniform random polygons in confined spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsuaga, J.; Blackstone, T.; Diao, Y.; Karadayi, E.; Saito, M.

2007-03-01

In this paper, we study the topological entanglement of uniform random polygons in a confined space. We derive the formula for the mean squared linking number of such polygons. For a fixed simple closed curve in the confined space, we rigorously show that the linking probability between this curve and a uniform random polygon of n vertices is at least 1-O\\big(\\frac{1}{\\sqrt{n}}\\big) . Our numerical study also indicates that the linking probability between two uniform random polygons (in a confined space), of m and n vertices respectively, is bounded below by 1-O\\big(\\frac{1}{\\sqrt{mn}}\\big) . In particular, the linking probability between two uniform random polygons, both of n vertices, is bounded below by 1-O\\big(\\frac{1}{n}\\big) .

Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens.

PubMed

Higham, Dean G; Hopkins, Will G; Pyne, David B; Anson, Judith M

2014-05-01

Identification of performance indicators related to scoring points and winning is needed to inform tactical approaches to international rugby sevens competition. The aim of this study was to characterize team performance indicators in international rugby sevens and quantify their relationship with a team's points scored and probability of winning. Performance indicators of each team during 196 matches of the 2011/2012 International Rugby Board Sevens World Series were modeled for their linear relationships with points scored and likelihood of winning within (changes in team values from match to match) and between (differences between team values averaged over all matches) teams. Relationships were evaluated as the change and difference in points and probability of winning associated with a two within- and between-team standard deviations increase in performance indicator values. Inferences about relationships were assessed using a smallest meaningful difference of one point and a 10% probability of a team changing the outcome of a close match. All indicators exhibited high within-team match-to-match variability (intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.00 to 0.23). Excluding indicators representing points-scoring actions or events occurring on average less than once per match, 13 of 17 indicators had substantial clear within-team relationships with points scored and/or likelihood of victory. Relationships between teams were generally similar in magnitude but unclear. Tactics that increase points scoring and likelihood of winning should be based on greater ball possession, fewer rucks, mauls, turnovers, penalties and free kicks, and limited passing. Key pointsSuccessful international rugby sevens teams tend to maintain ball possession; more frequently avoid taking the ball into contact; concede fewer turnovers, penalties and free kicks; retain possession in scrums, rucks and mauls; and limit passing the ball.Selected performance indicators may be used to evaluate team performances and plan more effective tactical approaches to competition.There is greater match-to-match variability in performance indicator values within than between international rugby sevens teams.The priorities for a rugby sevens team's technical and tactical preparation should reflect the magnitudes of the relationships between performance indicators, points scoring and the likelihood of winning.

Performance Indicators Related to Points Scoring and Winning in International Rugby Sevens

PubMed Central

Higham, Dean G.; Hopkins, Will G.; Pyne, David B.; Anson, Judith M.

2014-01-01

Identification of performance indicators related to scoring points and winning is needed to inform tactical approaches to international rugby sevens competition. The aim of this study was to characterize team performance indicators in international rugby sevens and quantify their relationship with a team’s points scored and probability of winning. Performance indicators of each team during 196 matches of the 2011/2012 International Rugby Board Sevens World Series were modeled for their linear relationships with points scored and likelihood of winning within (changes in team values from match to match) and between (differences between team values averaged over all matches) teams. Relationships were evaluated as the change and difference in points and probability of winning associated with a two within- and between-team standard deviations increase in performance indicator values. Inferences about relationships were assessed using a smallest meaningful difference of one point and a 10% probability of a team changing the outcome of a close match. All indicators exhibited high within-team match-to-match variability (intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.00 to 0.23). Excluding indicators representing points-scoring actions or events occurring on average less than once per match, 13 of 17 indicators had substantial clear within-team relationships with points scored and/or likelihood of victory. Relationships between teams were generally similar in magnitude but unclear. Tactics that increase points scoring and likelihood of winning should be based on greater ball possession, fewer rucks, mauls, turnovers, penalties and free kicks, and limited passing. Key points Successful international rugby sevens teams tend to maintain ball possession; more frequently avoid taking the ball into contact; concede fewer turnovers, penalties and free kicks; retain possession in scrums, rucks and mauls; and limit passing the ball. Selected performance indicators may be used to evaluate team performances and plan more effective tactical approaches to competition. There is greater match-to-match variability in performance indicator values within than between international rugby sevens teams. The priorities for a rugby sevens team’s technical and tactical preparation should reflect the magnitudes of the relationships between performance indicators, points scoring and the likelihood of winning. PMID:24790490

Forecasting a winner for Malaysian Cup 2013 using soccer simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Fauzee, Mohd Soffian Omar; Latif, Rozita Abdul

2014-07-01

This paper investigates through soccer simulation the calculation of the probability for each team winning Malaysia Cup 2013. Our methodology used here is we predict the outcomes of individual matches and then we simulate the Malaysia Cup 2013 tournament 5000 times. As match outcomes are always a matter of uncertainty, statistical model, in particular a double Poisson model is used to predict the number of goals scored and conceded for each team. Maximum likelihood estimation is use to measure the attacking strength and defensive weakness for each team. Based on our simulation result, LionXII has a higher probability in becoming the winner, followed by Selangor, ATM, JDT and Kelantan. Meanwhile, T-Team, Negeri Sembilan and Felda United have lower probabilities to win Malaysia Cup 2013. In summary, we find that the probability for each team becominga winner is small, indicating that the level of competitive balance in Malaysia Cup 2013 is quite high.

On the minimum of independent geometrically distributed random variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ciardo, Gianfranco; Leemis, Lawrence M.; Nicol, David

1994-01-01

The expectations E(X(sub 1)), E(Z(sub 1)), and E(Y(sub 1)) of the minimum of n independent geometric, modifies geometric, or exponential random variables with matching expectations differ. We show how this is accounted for by stochastic variability and how E(X(sub 1))/E(Y(sub 1)) equals the expected number of ties at the minimum for the geometric random variables. We then introduce the 'shifted geometric distribution' and show that there is a unique value of the shift for which the individual shifted geometric and exponential random variables match expectations both individually and in the minimums.

Probability of stress-corrosion fracture under random loading.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1972-01-01

A method is developed for predicting the probability of stress-corrosion fracture of structures under random loadings. The formulation is based on the cumulative damage hypothesis and the experimentally determined stress-corrosion characteristics. Under both stationary and nonstationary random loadings, the mean value and the variance of the cumulative damage are obtained. The probability of stress-corrosion fracture is then evaluated using the principle of maximum entropy. It is shown that, under stationary random loadings, the standard deviation of the cumulative damage increases in proportion to the square root of time, while the coefficient of variation (dispersion) decreases in inversed proportion to the square root of time. Numerical examples are worked out to illustrate the general results.

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

Forced diuresis with matched hydration in reducing acute kidney injury during transcatheter aortic valve implantation (Reduce-AKI): study protocol for a randomized sham-controlled trial.

PubMed

Arbel, Yaron; Ben-Assa, Eyal; Halkin, Amir; Keren, Gad; Schwartz, Arie Lorin; Havakuk, Ofer; Leshem-Rubinow, Eran; Konigstein, Maayan; Steinvil, Arie; Abramowitz, Yigal; Finkelstein, Ariel; Banai, Shmuel

2014-07-02

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is observed in up to 41% of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and is associated with increased risk for mortality. The aim of the present study is to evaluate whether furosemide-induced diuresis with matched isotonic intravenous hydration using the RenalGuard system reduces AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Reduce-AKI is a randomized sham-controlled study designed to examine the effect of an automated matched hydration system in the prevention of AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Patients will be randomized in a 1:1 fashion to the RenalGuard system (active group) versus non-matched saline infusion (sham-controlled group). Both arms receive standard overnight saline infusion and N-acetyl cysteine before the procedure. The Reduce-AKI trial will investigate whether the use of automated forced diuresis with matched saline infusion is an effective therapeutic tool to reduce the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01866800, 30 April 30 2013.

Forced diuresis with matched hydration in reducing acute kidney injury during transcatheter aortic valve implantation (Reduce-AKI): study protocol for a randomized sham-controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is observed in up to 41% of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and is associated with increased risk for mortality. The aim of the present study is to evaluate whether furosemide-induced diuresis with matched isotonic intravenous hydration using the RenalGuard system reduces AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Methods/Design Reduce-AKI is a randomized sham-controlled study designed to examine the effect of an automated matched hydration system in the prevention of AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Patients will be randomized in a 1:1 fashion to the RenalGuard system (active group) versus non-matched saline infusion (sham-controlled group). Both arms receive standard overnight saline infusion and N-acetyl cysteine before the procedure. Discussion The Reduce-AKI trial will investigate whether the use of automated forced diuresis with matched saline infusion is an effective therapeutic tool to reduce the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing TAVI. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01866800, 30 April 30 2013. PMID:24986373

Effect of Intermittent Reinforcement on Acquisition and Retention in Delayed Matching-to-Sample in Pigeons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

Experiments 1 and 2 involved independent groups that received primary reinforcement after a correct match with a probability of 1.0, 0.50 or 0.25. Correct matches that did not produce primary reinforcement produced a conditioned reinforcer. Both experiments revealed little evidence that acquisition or retention was adversely affected by use of…

Joint modeling and registration of cell populations in cohorts of high-dimensional flow cytometric data.

PubMed

Pyne, Saumyadipta; Lee, Sharon X; Wang, Kui; Irish, Jonathan; Tamayo, Pablo; Nazaire, Marc-Danie; Duong, Tarn; Ng, Shu-Kay; Hafler, David; Levy, Ronald; Nolan, Garry P; Mesirov, Jill; McLachlan, Geoffrey J

2014-01-01

In biomedical applications, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multivariate responses of a panel of markers such as from a signaling network. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While computational methods can identify cell populations in individual samples, without the ability to automatically match them across samples, it is difficult to compare and characterize the populations in typical experiments, such as those responding to various stimulations or distinctive of particular patients or time-points, especially when there are many samples. Joint Clustering and Matching (JCM) is a multi-level framework for simultaneous modeling and registration of populations across a cohort. JCM models every population with a robust multivariate probability distribution. Simultaneously, JCM fits a random-effects model to construct an overall batch template--used for registering populations across samples, and classifying new samples. By tackling systems-level variation, JCM supports practical biomedical applications involving large cohorts. Software for fitting the JCM models have been implemented in an R package EMMIX-JCM, available from http://www.maths.uq.edu.au/~gjm/mix_soft/EMMIX-JCM/.

1 / n Expansion for the Number of Matchings on Regular Graphs and Monomer-Dimer Entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernici, Mario

2017-08-01

Using a 1 / n expansion, that is an expansion in descending powers of n, for the number of matchings in regular graphs with 2 n vertices, we study the monomer-dimer entropy for two classes of graphs. We study the difference between the extensive monomer-dimer entropy of a random r-regular graph G (bipartite or not) with 2 n vertices and the average extensive entropy of r-regular graphs with 2 n vertices, in the limit n → ∞. We find a series expansion for it in the numbers of cycles; with probability 1 it converges for dimer density p < 1 and, for G bipartite, it diverges as |ln(1-p)| for p → 1. In the case of regular lattices, we similarly expand the difference between the specific monomer-dimer entropy on a lattice and the one on the Bethe lattice; we write down its Taylor expansion in powers of p through the order 10, expressed in terms of the number of totally reducible walks which are not tree-like. We prove through order 6 that its expansion coefficients in powers of p are non-negative.

Two-key concurrent responding: response-reinforcement dependencies and blackouts1

PubMed Central

Herbert, Emily W.

1970-01-01

Two-key concurrent responding was maintained for three pigeons by a single variable-interval 1-minute schedule of reinforcement in conjunction with a random number generator that assigned feeder operations between keys with equal probability. The duration of blackouts was varied between keys when each response initiated a blackout, and grain arranged by the variable-interval schedule was automatically presented after a blackout (Exp. I). In Exp. II every key peck, except for those that produced grain, initiated a blackout, and grain was dependent upon a response following a blackout. For each pigeon in Exp. I and for one pigeon in Exp. II, the relative frequency of responding on a key approximated, i.e., matched, the relative reciprocal of the duration of the blackout interval on that key. In a third experiment, blackouts scheduled on a variable-interval were of equal duration on the two keys. For one key, grain automatically followed each blackout; for the other key, grain was dependent upon a response and never followed a blackout. The relative frequency of responding on the former key, i.e., the delay key, better approximated the negative exponential function obtained by Chung (1965) than the matching function predicted by Chung and Herrnstein (1967). PMID:16811458

Perceptions of randomized security schedules.

PubMed

Scurich, Nicholas; John, Richard S

2014-04-01

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Efficient Iris Recognition Based on Optimal Subfeature Selection and Weighted Subregion Fusion

PubMed Central

Deng, Ning

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose three discriminative feature selection strategies and weighted subregion matching method to improve the performance of iris recognition system. Firstly, we introduce the process of feature extraction and representation based on scale invariant feature transformation (SIFT) in detail. Secondly, three strategies are described, which are orientation probability distribution function (OPDF) based strategy to delete some redundant feature keypoints, magnitude probability distribution function (MPDF) based strategy to reduce dimensionality of feature element, and compounded strategy combined OPDF and MPDF to further select optimal subfeature. Thirdly, to make matching more effective, this paper proposes a novel matching method based on weighted sub-region matching fusion. Particle swarm optimization is utilized to accelerate achieve different sub-region's weights and then weighted different subregions' matching scores to generate the final decision. The experimental results, on three public and renowned iris databases (CASIA-V3 Interval, Lamp, andMMU-V1), demonstrate that our proposed methods outperform some of the existing methods in terms of correct recognition rate, equal error rate, and computation complexity. PMID:24683317

Efficient iris recognition based on optimal subfeature selection and weighted subregion fusion.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Liu, Yuanning; Zhu, Xiaodong; He, Fei; Wang, Hongye; Deng, Ning

2014-01-01

In this paper, we propose three discriminative feature selection strategies and weighted subregion matching method to improve the performance of iris recognition system. Firstly, we introduce the process of feature extraction and representation based on scale invariant feature transformation (SIFT) in detail. Secondly, three strategies are described, which are orientation probability distribution function (OPDF) based strategy to delete some redundant feature keypoints, magnitude probability distribution function (MPDF) based strategy to reduce dimensionality of feature element, and compounded strategy combined OPDF and MPDF to further select optimal subfeature. Thirdly, to make matching more effective, this paper proposes a novel matching method based on weighted sub-region matching fusion. Particle swarm optimization is utilized to accelerate achieve different sub-region's weights and then weighted different subregions' matching scores to generate the final decision. The experimental results, on three public and renowned iris databases (CASIA-V3 Interval, Lamp, and MMU-V1), demonstrate that our proposed methods outperform some of the existing methods in terms of correct recognition rate, equal error rate, and computation complexity.

A Semi-Analytical Method for the PDFs of A Ship Rolling in Random Oblique Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li-qin; Liu, Ya-liu; Xu, Wan-hai; Li, Yan; Tang, You-gang

2018-03-01

The PDFs (probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA (2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship's manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.

Maximum-entropy probability distributions under Lp-norm constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, S.

1991-01-01

Continuous probability density functions and discrete probability mass functions are tabulated which maximize the differential entropy or absolute entropy, respectively, among all probability distributions with a given L sub p norm (i.e., a given pth absolute moment when p is a finite integer) and unconstrained or constrained value set. Expressions for the maximum entropy are evaluated as functions of the L sub p norm. The most interesting results are obtained and plotted for unconstrained (real valued) continuous random variables and for integer valued discrete random variables. The maximum entropy expressions are obtained in closed form for unconstrained continuous random variables, and in this case there is a simple straight line relationship between the maximum differential entropy and the logarithm of the L sub p norm. Corresponding expressions for arbitrary discrete and constrained continuous random variables are given parametrically; closed form expressions are available only for special cases. However, simpler alternative bounds on the maximum entropy of integer valued discrete random variables are obtained by applying the differential entropy results to continuous random variables which approximate the integer valued random variables in a natural manner. All the results are presented in an integrated framework that includes continuous and discrete random variables, constraints on the permissible value set, and all possible values of p. Understanding such as this is useful in evaluating the performance of data compression schemes.

Large Deviations for Stationary Probabilities of a Family of Continuous Time Markov Chains via Aubry-Mather Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, Artur O.; Neumann, Adriana

2015-05-01

In the present paper, we consider a family of continuous time symmetric random walks indexed by , . For each the matching random walk take values in the finite set of states ; notice that is a subset of , where is the unitary circle. The infinitesimal generator of such chain is denoted by . The stationary probability for such process converges to the uniform distribution on the circle, when . Here we want to study other natural measures, obtained via a limit on , that are concentrated on some points of . We will disturb this process by a potential and study for each the perturbed stationary measures of this new process when . We disturb the system considering a fixed potential and we will denote by the restriction of to . Then, we define a non-stochastic semigroup generated by the matrix , where is the infinifesimal generator of . From the continuous time Perron's Theorem one can normalized such semigroup, and, then we get another stochastic semigroup which generates a continuous time Markov Chain taking values on . This new chain is called the continuous time Gibbs state associated to the potential , see (Lopes et al. in J Stat Phys 152:894-933, 2013). The stationary probability vector for such Markov Chain is denoted by . We assume that the maximum of is attained in a unique point of , and from this will follow that . Thus, here, our main goal is to analyze the large deviation principle for the family , when . The deviation function , which is defined on , will be obtained from a procedure based on fixed points of the Lax-Oleinik operator and Aubry-Mather theory. In order to obtain the associated Lax-Oleinik operator we use the Varadhan's Lemma for the process . For a careful analysis of the problem we present full details of the proof of the Large Deviation Principle, in the Skorohod space, for such family of Markov Chains, when . Finally, we compute the entropy of the invariant probabilities on the Skorohod space associated to the Markov Chains we analyze.

PERMANENT GENETIC RESOURCES: Eighteen new polymorphic microsatellite markers for the endangered Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris.

PubMed

Tringali, Michael D; Seyoum, Seifu; Carney, Susan L; Davis, Michelle C; Rodriguez-Lopez, Marta A; Reynolds Iii, John E; Haubold, Elsa

2008-03-01

Here we describe 18 polymorphic microsatellite loci for Trichechus manatus latirostris (Florida manatee), isolated using a polymerase chain reaction-based technique. The number of alleles at each locus ranged from two to four (mean = 2.5) in specimens from southwest (n = 58) and northeast (n = 58) Florida. Expected and observed heterozygosities ranged from 0.11 to 0.67 (mean = 0.35) and from 0.02 to 0.78 (mean = 0.34), respectively. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium occurred at two loci. There was no evidence of genotypic disequilibrium for any pair of loci. For individual identification, mean random-mating and θ-corrected match probabilities were 9.36 × 10(-7) and 1.95 × 10(-6) , respectively. © 2007 The Authors.

Estimation of the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure using subset simulation and random set theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Diego A.; Uribe, Felipe; Hurtado, Jorge E.

2018-02-01

Random set theory is a general framework which comprises uncertainty in the form of probability boxes, possibility distributions, cumulative distribution functions, Dempster-Shafer structures or intervals; in addition, the dependence between the input variables can be expressed using copulas. In this paper, the lower and upper bounds on the probability of failure are calculated by means of random set theory. In order to accelerate the calculation, a well-known and efficient probability-based reliability method known as subset simulation is employed. This method is especially useful for finding small failure probabilities in both low- and high-dimensional spaces, disjoint failure domains and nonlinear limit state functions. The proposed methodology represents a drastic reduction of the computational labor implied by plain Monte Carlo simulation for problems defined with a mixture of representations for the input variables, while delivering similar results. Numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Probability of stress-corrosion fracture under random loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J. N.

1974-01-01

Mathematical formulation is based on cumulative-damage hypothesis and experimentally-determined stress-corrosion characteristics. Under both stationary random loadings, mean value and variance of cumulative damage are obtained. Probability of stress-corrosion fracture is then evaluated, using principle of maximum entropy.

On the number of infinite geodesics and ground states in disordered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehr, Jan

1997-04-01

We study first-passage percolation models and their higher dimensional analogs—models of surfaces with random weights. We prove that under very general conditions the number of lines or, in the second case, hypersurfaces which locally minimize the sum of the random weights is with probability one equal to 0 or with probability one equal to +∞. As corollaries we show that in any dimension d≥2 the number of ground states of an Ising ferromagnet with random coupling constants equals (with probability one) 2 or +∞. Proofs employ simple large-deviation estimates and ergodic arguments.

Dynamic Response of an Optomechanical System to a Stationary Random Excitation in the Time Domain

DOE PAGES

Palmer, Jeremy A.; Paez, Thomas L.

2011-01-01

Modern electro-optical instruments are typically designed with assemblies of optomechanical members that support optics such that alignment is maintained in service environments that include random vibration loads. This paper presents a nonlinear numerical analysis that calculates statistics for the peak lateral response of optics in an optomechanical sub-assembly subject to random excitation of the housing. The work is unique in that the prior art does not address peak response probability distribution for stationary random vibration in the time domain for a common lens-retainer-housing system with Coulomb damping. Analytical results are validated by using displacement response data from random vibration testingmore » of representative prototype sub-assemblies. A comparison of predictions to experimental results yields reasonable agreement. The Type I Asymptotic form provides the cumulative distribution function for peak response probabilities. Probabilities are calculated for actual lens centration tolerances. The probability that peak response will not exceed the centration tolerance is greater than 80% for prototype configurations where the tolerance is high (on the order of 30 micrometers). Conversely, the probability is low for those where the tolerance is less than 20 micrometers. The analysis suggests a design paradigm based on the influence of lateral stiffness on the magnitude of the response.« less

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannay, J. H.

2018-04-01

A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

Computer simulation of random variables and vectors with arbitrary probability distribution laws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogdan, V. M.

1981-01-01

Assume that there is given an arbitrary n-dimensional probability distribution F. A recursive construction is found for a sequence of functions x sub 1 = f sub 1 (U sub 1, ..., U sub n), ..., x sub n = f sub n (U sub 1, ..., U sub n) such that if U sub 1, ..., U sub n are independent random variables having uniform distribution over the open interval (0,1), then the joint distribution of the variables x sub 1, ..., x sub n coincides with the distribution F. Since uniform independent random variables can be well simulated by means of a computer, this result allows one to simulate arbitrary n-random variables if their joint probability distribution is known.

On the relationship between matched filter theory as applied to gust loads and phased design loads analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeiler, Thomas A.; Pototzky, Anthony S.

1989-01-01

A theoretical basis and example calculations are given that demonstrate the relationship between the Matched Filter Theory approach to the calculation of time-correlated gust loads and Phased Design Load Analysis in common use in the aerospace industry. The relationship depends upon the duality between Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory and upon the fact that Random Process Theory is used in Phased Design Loads Analysis in determining an equiprobable loads design ellipse. Extensive background information describing the relevant points of Phased Design Loads Analysis, calculating time-correlated gust loads with Matched Filter Theory, and the duality between Matched Filter Theory and Random Process Theory is given. It is then shown that the time histories of two time-correlated gust load responses, determined using the Matched Filter Theory approach, can be plotted as parametric functions of time and that the resulting plot, when superposed upon the design ellipse corresponding to the two loads, is tangent to the ellipse. The question is raised of whether or not it is possible for a parametric load plot to extend outside the associated design ellipse. If it is possible, then the use of the equiprobable loads design ellipse will not be a conservative design practice in some circumstances.

Impact of a Social-Emotional and Character Development Program on School-Level Indicators of Academic Achievement, Absenteeism, and Disciplinary Outcomes: A Matched-Pair, Cluster-Randomized, Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Frank; Flay, Brian; Vuchinich, Samuel; Acock, Alan; Washburn, Isaac; Beets, Michael; Li, Kin-Kit

2010-01-01

This article reports the effects of a comprehensive elementary school-based social-emotional and character education program on school-level achievement, absenteeism, and disciplinary outcomes utilizing a matched-pair, cluster-randomized, controlled design. The "Positive Action" Hawai'i trial included 20 racially/ethnically diverse…

Match statistics related to winning in the group stage of 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup.

PubMed

Liu, Hongyou; Gomez, Miguel-Ángel; Lago-Peñas, Carlos; Sampaio, Jaime

2015-01-01

Identifying match statistics that strongly contribute to winning in football matches is a very important step towards a more predictive and prescriptive performance analysis. The current study aimed to determine relationships between 24 match statistics and the match outcome (win, loss and draw) in all games and close games of the group stage of FIFA World Cup (2014, Brazil) by employing the generalised linear model. The cumulative logistic regression was run in the model taking the value of each match statistic as independent variable to predict the logarithm of the odds of winning. Relationships were assessed as effects of a two-standard-deviation increase in the value of each variable on the change in the probability of a team winning a match. Non-clinical magnitude-based inferences were employed and were evaluated by using the smallest worthwhile change. Results showed that for all the games, nine match statistics had clearly positive effects on the probability of winning (Shot, Shot on Target, Shot from Counter Attack, Shot from Inside Area, Ball Possession, Short Pass, Average Pass Streak, Aerial Advantage and Tackle), four had clearly negative effects (Shot Blocked, Cross, Dribble and Red Card), other 12 statistics had either trivial or unclear effects. While for the close games, the effects of Aerial Advantage and Yellow Card turned to trivial and clearly negative, respectively. Information from the tactical modelling can provide a more thorough and objective match understanding to coaches and performance analysts for evaluating post-match performances and for scouting upcoming oppositions.

Quantum-Inspired Maximizer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2008-01-01

A report discusses an algorithm for a new kind of dynamics based on a quantum- classical hybrid-quantum-inspired maximizer. The model is represented by a modified Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced by different, specially chosen 'computational' potential. As a result, the dynamics attains both quantum and classical properties: it preserves superposition and entanglement of random solutions, while allowing one to measure its state variables, using classical methods. Such optimal combination of characteristics is a perfect match for quantum-inspired computing. As an application, an algorithm for global maximum of an arbitrary integrable function is proposed. The idea of the proposed algorithm is very simple: based upon the Quantum-inspired Maximizer (QIM), introduce a positive function to be maximized as the probability density to which the solution is attracted. Then the larger value of this function will have the higher probability to appear. Special attention is paid to simulation of integer programming and NP-complete problems. It is demonstrated that the problem of global maximum of an integrable function can be found in polynomial time by using the proposed quantum- classical hybrid. The result is extended to a constrained maximum with applications to integer programming and TSP (Traveling Salesman Problem).

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling for Automated Database Schema Matching

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferragut, Erik M; Laska, Jason A

2015-01-01

The problem of merging databases arises in many government and commercial applications. Schema matching, a common first step, identifies equivalent fields between databases. We introduce a schema matching framework that builds nonparametric Bayesian models for each field and compares them by computing the probability that a single model could have generated both fields. Our experiments show that our method is more accurate and faster than the existing instance-based matching algorithms in part because of the use of nonparametric Bayesian models.

[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

PubMed

Dinya, E

1998-04-26

The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

a Probability-Based Statistical Method to Extract Water Body of TM Images with Missing Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Shizhong; Chen, Jiangping; Luo, Minghai

2016-06-01

Water information cannot be accurately extracted using TM images because true information is lost in some images because of blocking clouds and missing data stripes, thereby water information cannot be accurately extracted. Water is continuously distributed in natural conditions; thus, this paper proposed a new method of water body extraction based on probability statistics to improve the accuracy of water information extraction of TM images with missing information. Different disturbing information of clouds and missing data stripes are simulated. Water information is extracted using global histogram matching, local histogram matching, and the probability-based statistical method in the simulated images. Experiments show that smaller Areal Error and higher Boundary Recall can be obtained using this method compared with the conventional methods.

Some design issues of strata-matched non-randomized studies with survival outcomes.

PubMed

Mazumdar, Madhu; Tu, Donsheng; Zhou, Xi Kathy

2006-12-15

Non-randomized studies for the evaluation of a medical intervention are useful for quantitative hypothesis generation before the initiation of a randomized trial and also when randomized clinical trials are difficult to conduct. A strata-matched non-randomized design is often utilized where subjects treated by a test intervention are matched to a fixed number of subjects treated by a standard intervention within covariate based strata. In this paper, we consider the issue of sample size calculation for this design. Based on the asymptotic formula for the power of a stratified log-rank test, we derive a formula to calculate the minimum number of subjects in the test intervention group that is required to detect a given relative risk between the test and standard interventions. When this minimum number of subjects in the test intervention group is available, an equation is also derived to find the multiple that determines the number of subjects in the standard intervention group within each stratum. The methodology developed is applied to two illustrative examples in gastric cancer and sarcoma.

Quantitative comparison of randomization designs in sequential clinical trials based on treatment balance and allocation randomness.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenle; Weng, Yanqiu; Wu, Qi; Palesch, Yuko

2012-01-01

To evaluate the performance of randomization designs under various parameter settings and trial sample sizes, and identify optimal designs with respect to both treatment imbalance and allocation randomness, we evaluate 260 design scenarios from 14 randomization designs under 15 sample sizes range from 10 to 300, using three measures for imbalance and three measures for randomness. The maximum absolute imbalance and the correct guess (CG) probability are selected to assess the trade-off performance of each randomization design. As measured by the maximum absolute imbalance and the CG probability, we found that performances of the 14 randomization designs are located in a closed region with the upper boundary (worst case) given by Efron's biased coin design (BCD) and the lower boundary (best case) from the Soares and Wu's big stick design (BSD). Designs close to the lower boundary provide a smaller imbalance and a higher randomness than designs close to the upper boundary. Our research suggested that optimization of randomization design is possible based on quantified evaluation of imbalance and randomness. Based on the maximum imbalance and CG probability, the BSD, Chen's biased coin design with imbalance tolerance method, and Chen's Ehrenfest urn design perform better than popularly used permuted block design, EBCD, and Wei's urn design. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Probability matching in risky choice: the interplay of feedback and strategy availability.

PubMed

Newell, Ben R; Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta; Rakow, Tim; van Ravenzwaaij, Don

2013-04-01

Probability matching in sequential decision making is a striking violation of rational choice that has been observed in hundreds of experiments. Recent studies have demonstrated that matching persists even in described tasks in which all the information required for identifying a superior alternative strategy-maximizing-is present before the first choice is made. These studies have also indicated that maximizing increases when (1) the asymmetry in the availability of matching and maximizing strategies is reduced and (2) normatively irrelevant outcome feedback is provided. In the two experiments reported here, we examined the joint influences of these factors, revealing that strategy availability and outcome feedback operate on different time courses. Both behavioral and modeling results showed that while availability of the maximizing strategy increases the choice of maximizing early during the task, feedback appears to act more slowly to erode misconceptions about the task and to reinforce optimal responding. The results illuminate the interplay between "top-down" identification of choice strategies and "bottom-up" discovery of those strategies via feedback.

More than words: Adults learn probabilities over categories and relationships between them.

PubMed

Hudson Kam, Carla L

2009-04-01

This study examines whether human learners can acquire statistics over abstract categories and their relationships to each other. Adult learners were exposed to miniature artificial languages containing variation in the ordering of the Subject, Object, and Verb constituents. Different orders (e.g. SOV, VSO) occurred in the input with different frequencies, but the occurrence of one order versus another was not predictable. Importantly, the language was constructed such that participants could only match the overall input probabilities if they were tracking statistics over abstract categories, not over individual words. At test, participants reproduced the probabilities present in the input with a high degree of accuracy. Closer examination revealed that learner's were matching the probabilities associated with individual verbs rather than the category as a whole. However, individual nouns had no impact on word orders produced. Thus, participants learned the probabilities of a particular ordering of the abstract grammatical categories Subject and Object associated with each verb. Results suggest that statistical learning mechanisms are capable of tracking relationships between abstract linguistic categories in addition to individual items.

How enhanced molecular ions in Cold EI improve compound identification by the NIST library.

PubMed

Alon, Tal; Amirav, Aviv

2015-12-15

Library-based compound identification with electron ionization (EI) mass spectrometry (MS) is a well-established identification method which provides the names and structures of sample compounds up to the isomer level. The library (such as NIST) search algorithm compares different EI mass spectra in the library's database with the measured EI mass spectrum, assigning each of them a similarity score called 'Match' and an overall identification probability. Cold EI, electron ionization of vibrationally cold molecules in supersonic molecular beams, provides mass spectra with all the standard EI fragment ions combined with enhanced Molecular Ions and high-mass fragments. As a result, Cold EI mass spectra differ from those provided by standard EI and tend to yield lower matching scores. However, in most cases, library identification actually improves with Cold EI, as library identification probabilities for the correct library mass spectra increase, despite the lower matching factors. This research examined the way that enhanced molecular ion abundances affect library identification probability and the way that Cold EI mass spectra, which include enhanced molecular ions and high-mass fragment ions, typically improve library identification results. It involved several computer simulations, which incrementally modified the relative abundances of the various ions and analyzed the resulting mass spectra. The simulation results support previous measurements, showing that while enhanced molecular ion and high-mass fragment ions lower the matching factor of the correct library compound, the matching factors of the incorrect library candidates are lowered even more, resulting in a rise in the identification probability for the correct compound. This behavior which was previously observed by analyzing Cold EI mass spectra can be explained by the fact that high-mass ions, and especially the molecular ion, characterize a compound more than low-mass ions and therefore carries more weight in library search identification algorithms. These ions are uniquely abundant in Cold EI, which therefore enables enhanced compound characterization along with improved NIST library based identification. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Psychophysical correspondence between vibrotactile intensity and intracortical microstimulation for tactile neuroprostheses in rats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devecioğlu, İsmail; Güçlü, Burak

2017-02-01

Objective. Recent studies showed that intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) generates artificial sensations which can be utilized as somatosensory feedback in cortical neuroprostheses. To mimic the natural psychophysical response, ICMS parameters are modulated according to psychometric equivalence functions (PEFs). PEFs match the intensity levels of ICMS and mechanical stimuli, which elicit equal detection probabilities, but they typically do not include the frequency as a control variable. We aimed to establish frequency-dependent PEFs for vibrotactile stimulation of the glabrous skin and ICMS in the primary somatosensory cortex of awake freely behaving rats. Approach. We collected psychometric data for vibrotactile and ICMS detection at three stimulation frequencies (40, 60 and 80 Hz). The psychometric data were fitted with a model equation of two independent variables (stimulus intensity and frequency) and four subject-dependent parameters. For each rat, we constructed a separate PEF which was used to estimate the ICMS current amplitude for a given displacement amplitude and frequency. The ICMS frequency was set equal to the vibrotactile frequency. We validated the PEFs in a modified task which included randomly selected probe trials presented either with a vibrotactile or an ICMS stimulus, and also at frequencies and intensity levels not tested before. Main results. The PEFs were generally successful in estimating the ICMS current intensities (no significant differences between vibrotactile and ICMS trials in Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests). Specifically, hit rates from both trial conditions were significantly correlated in 86% of the cases, and 52% of all data had perfect match in linear regression. Significance. The psychometric correspondence model presented in this study was constructed based on surface functions which define psychophysical detection probability as a function of stimulus intensity and frequency. Therefore, it may be used for the real-time modulation of the frequency and intensity of ICMS pulses in somatosensory neuroprostheses.

Psychophysical correspondence between vibrotactile intensity and intracortical microstimulation for tactile neuroprostheses in rats.

PubMed

Devecioğlu, İsmail; Güçlü, Burak

2017-02-01

Recent studies showed that intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) generates artificial sensations which can be utilized as somatosensory feedback in cortical neuroprostheses. To mimic the natural psychophysical response, ICMS parameters are modulated according to psychometric equivalence functions (PEFs). PEFs match the intensity levels of ICMS and mechanical stimuli, which elicit equal detection probabilities, but they typically do not include the frequency as a control variable. We aimed to establish frequency-dependent PEFs for vibrotactile stimulation of the glabrous skin and ICMS in the primary somatosensory cortex of awake freely behaving rats. We collected psychometric data for vibrotactile and ICMS detection at three stimulation frequencies (40, 60 and 80 Hz). The psychometric data were fitted with a model equation of two independent variables (stimulus intensity and frequency) and four subject-dependent parameters. For each rat, we constructed a separate PEF which was used to estimate the ICMS current amplitude for a given displacement amplitude and frequency. The ICMS frequency was set equal to the vibrotactile frequency. We validated the PEFs in a modified task which included randomly selected probe trials presented either with a vibrotactile or an ICMS stimulus, and also at frequencies and intensity levels not tested before. The PEFs were generally successful in estimating the ICMS current intensities (no significant differences between vibrotactile and ICMS trials in Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests). Specifically, hit rates from both trial conditions were significantly correlated in 86% of the cases, and 52% of all data had perfect match in linear regression. The psychometric correspondence model presented in this study was constructed based on surface functions which define psychophysical detection probability as a function of stimulus intensity and frequency. Therefore, it may be used for the real-time modulation of the frequency and intensity of ICMS pulses in somatosensory neuroprostheses.

Longitudinal study of fingerprint recognition.

PubMed

Yoon, Soweon; Jain, Anil K

2015-07-14

Human identification by fingerprints is based on the fundamental premise that ridge patterns from distinct fingers are different (uniqueness) and a fingerprint pattern does not change over time (persistence). Although the uniqueness of fingerprints has been investigated by developing statistical models to estimate the probability of error in comparing two random samples of fingerprints, the persistence of fingerprints has remained a general belief based on only a few case studies. In this study, fingerprint match (similarity) scores are analyzed by multilevel statistical models with covariates such as time interval between two fingerprints in comparison, subject's age, and fingerprint image quality. Longitudinal fingerprint records of 15,597 subjects are sampled from an operational fingerprint database such that each individual has at least five 10-print records over a minimum time span of 5 y. In regard to the persistence of fingerprints, the longitudinal analysis on a single (right index) finger demonstrates that (i) genuine match scores tend to significantly decrease when time interval between two fingerprints in comparison increases, whereas the change in impostor match scores is negligible; and (ii) fingerprint recognition accuracy at operational settings, nevertheless, tends to be stable as the time interval increases up to 12 y, the maximum time span in the dataset. However, the uncertainty of temporal stability of fingerprint recognition accuracy becomes substantially large if either of the two fingerprints being compared is of poor quality. The conclusions drawn from 10-finger fusion analysis coincide with the conclusions from single-finger analysis.

Longitudinal study of fingerprint recognition

PubMed Central

Yoon, Soweon; Jain, Anil K.

2015-01-01

Human identification by fingerprints is based on the fundamental premise that ridge patterns from distinct fingers are different (uniqueness) and a fingerprint pattern does not change over time (persistence). Although the uniqueness of fingerprints has been investigated by developing statistical models to estimate the probability of error in comparing two random samples of fingerprints, the persistence of fingerprints has remained a general belief based on only a few case studies. In this study, fingerprint match (similarity) scores are analyzed by multilevel statistical models with covariates such as time interval between two fingerprints in comparison, subject’s age, and fingerprint image quality. Longitudinal fingerprint records of 15,597 subjects are sampled from an operational fingerprint database such that each individual has at least five 10-print records over a minimum time span of 5 y. In regard to the persistence of fingerprints, the longitudinal analysis on a single (right index) finger demonstrates that (i) genuine match scores tend to significantly decrease when time interval between two fingerprints in comparison increases, whereas the change in impostor match scores is negligible; and (ii) fingerprint recognition accuracy at operational settings, nevertheless, tends to be stable as the time interval increases up to 12 y, the maximum time span in the dataset. However, the uncertainty of temporal stability of fingerprint recognition accuracy becomes substantially large if either of the two fingerprints being compared is of poor quality. The conclusions drawn from 10-finger fusion analysis coincide with the conclusions from single-finger analysis. PMID:26124106

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating marginal hazard ratios.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2013-07-20

Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to reduce or minimize the effects of confounding when estimating the effects of treatments, exposures, or interventions when using observational or non-randomized data. Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, previous research has shown that propensity score methods allow for unbiased estimation of linear treatment effects (e.g., differences in means or proportions). However, in biomedical research, time-to-event outcomes occur frequently. There is a paucity of research into the performance of different propensity score methods for estimating the effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Furthermore, propensity score methods allow for the estimation of marginal or population-average treatment effects. We conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine the performance of propensity score matching (1:1 greedy nearest-neighbor matching within propensity score calipers), stratification on the propensity score, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score to estimate marginal hazard ratios. We found that both propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score allow for the estimation of marginal hazard ratios with minimal bias. Of these two approaches, IPTW using the propensity score resulted in estimates with lower mean squared error when estimating the effect of treatment in the treated. Stratification on the propensity score and covariate adjustment using the propensity score result in biased estimation of both marginal and conditional hazard ratios. Applied researchers are encouraged to use propensity score matching and IPTW using the propensity score when estimating the relative effect of treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mapping Evidence-Based Treatments for Children and Adolescents: Application of the Distillation and Matching Model to 615 Treatments from 322 Randomized Trials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chorpita, Bruce F.; Daleiden, Eric L.

2009-01-01

This study applied the distillation and matching model to 322 randomized clinical trials for child mental health treatments. The model involved initial data reduction of 615 treatment protocol descriptions by means of a set of codes describing discrete clinical strategies, referred to as practice elements. Practice elements were then summarized in…

Improving Elementary School Quality through the Use of a Social-Emotional and Character Development Program: A Matched-Pair, Cluster-Randomized, Controlled Trial in Hawai'i

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Frank J.; Vuchinich, Samuel; Acock, Alan; Washburn, Isaac J.; Flay, Brian R.

2012-01-01

Background: School safety and quality affect student learning and success. This study examined the effects of a comprehensive elementary school-wide social-emotional and character education program, Positive Action, on teacher, parent, and student perceptions of school safety and quality utilizing a matched-pair, cluster-randomized, controlled…

Bayesian deterministic decision making: a normative account of the operant matching law and heavy-tailed reward history dependency of choices.

PubMed

Saito, Hiroshi; Katahira, Kentaro; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

2014-01-01

The decision making behaviors of humans and animals adapt and then satisfy an "operant matching law" in certain type of tasks. This was first pointed out by Herrnstein in his foraging experiments on pigeons. The matching law has been one landmark for elucidating the underlying processes of decision making and its learning in the brain. An interesting question is whether decisions are made deterministically or probabilistically. Conventional learning models of the matching law are based on the latter idea; they assume that subjects learn choice probabilities of respective alternatives and decide stochastically with the probabilities. However, it is unknown whether the matching law can be accounted for by a deterministic strategy or not. To answer this question, we propose several deterministic Bayesian decision making models that have certain incorrect beliefs about an environment. We claim that a simple model produces behavior satisfying the matching law in static settings of a foraging task but not in dynamic settings. We found that the model that has a belief that the environment is volatile works well in the dynamic foraging task and exhibits undermatching, which is a slight deviation from the matching law observed in many experiments. This model also demonstrates the double-exponential reward history dependency of a choice and a heavier-tailed run-length distribution, as has recently been reported in experiments on monkeys.

Accurate recapture identification for genetic mark–recapture studies with error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling and sample clustering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sethi, Suresh; Linden, Daniel; Wenburg, John; Lewis, Cara; Lemons, Patrick R.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hare, Matthew P.

2016-01-01

Error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling presents a promising technique to accurately identify recapture events in genetic mark–recapture studies by combining probabilities of latent genotypes and probabilities of observed genotypes, which may contain genotyping errors. Combined with clustering algorithms to group samples into sets of recaptures based upon pairwise match calls, these tools can be used to reconstruct accurate capture histories for mark–recapture modelling. Here, we assess the performance of a recently introduced error-tolerant likelihood-based match-calling model and sample clustering algorithm for genetic mark–recapture studies. We assessed both biallelic (i.e. single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNP) and multiallelic (i.e. microsatellite; MSAT) markers using a combination of simulation analyses and case study data on Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) and fishers (Pekania pennanti). A novel two-stage clustering approach is demonstrated for genetic mark–recapture applications. First, repeat captures within a sampling occasion are identified. Subsequently, recaptures across sampling occasions are identified. The likelihood-based matching protocol performed well in simulation trials, demonstrating utility for use in a wide range of genetic mark–recapture studies. Moderately sized SNP (64+) and MSAT (10–15) panels produced accurate match calls for recaptures and accurate non-match calls for samples from closely related individuals in the face of low to moderate genotyping error. Furthermore, matching performance remained stable or increased as the number of genetic markers increased, genotyping error notwithstanding.

Return probabilities and hitting times of random walks on sparse Erdös-Rényi graphs.

PubMed

Martin, O C; Sulc, P

2010-03-01

We consider random walks on random graphs, focusing on return probabilities and hitting times for sparse Erdös-Rényi graphs. Using the tree approach, which is expected to be exact in the large graph limit, we show how to solve for the distribution of these quantities and we find that these distributions exhibit a form of self-similarity.

A Bayesian approach to modeling 2D gravity data using polygon states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, W. J.; Titus, S.; Davis, J. R.

2015-12-01

We present a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the 2D gravity inversion of a localized subsurface object with constant density contrast. Our models have four parameters: the density contrast, the number of vertices in a polygonal approximation of the object, an upper bound on the ratio of the perimeter squared to the area, and the vertices of a polygon container that bounds the object. Reasonable parameter values can be estimated prior to inversion using a forward model and geologic information. In addition, we assume that the field data have a common random uncertainty that lies between two bounds but that it has no systematic uncertainty. Finally, we assume that there is no uncertainty in the spatial locations of the measurement stations. For any set of model parameters, we use MCMC methods to generate an approximate probability distribution of polygons for the object. We then compute various probability distributions for the object, including the variance between the observed and predicted fields (an important quantity in the MCMC method), the area, the center of area, and the occupancy probability (the probability that a spatial point lies within the object). In addition, we compare probabilities of different models using parallel tempering, a technique which also mitigates trapping in local optima that can occur in certain model geometries. We apply our method to several synthetic data sets generated from objects of varying shape and location. We also analyze a natural data set collected across the Rio Grande Gorge Bridge in New Mexico, where the object (i.e. the air below the bridge) is known and the canyon is approximately 2D. Although there are many ways to view results, the occupancy probability proves quite powerful. We also find that the choice of the container is important. In particular, large containers should be avoided, because the more closely a container confines the object, the better the predictions match properties of object.

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

Combined statistical analysis of landslide release and propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergili, Martin; Rohmaneo, Mohammad; Chu, Hone-Jay

2016-04-01

Statistical methods - often coupled with stochastic concepts - are commonly employed to relate areas affected by landslides with environmental layers, and to estimate spatial landslide probabilities by applying these relationships. However, such methods only concern the release of landslides, disregarding their motion. Conceptual models for mass flow routing are used for estimating landslide travel distances and possible impact areas. Automated approaches combining release and impact probabilities are rare. The present work attempts to fill this gap by a fully automated procedure combining statistical and stochastic elements, building on the open source GRASS GIS software: (1) The landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (2) We employ a traditional statistical approach to estimate the spatial release probability of landslides. (3) We back-calculate the probability distribution of the angle of reach of the observed landslides, employing the software tool r.randomwalk. One set of random walks is routed downslope from each pixel defined as release area. Each random walk stops when leaving the observed impact area of the landslide. (4) The cumulative probability function (cdf) derived in (3) is used as input to route a set of random walks downslope from each pixel in the study area through the DEM, assigning the probability gained from the cdf to each pixel along the path (impact probability). The impact probability of a pixel is defined as the average impact probability of all sets of random walks impacting a pixel. Further, the average release probabilities of the release pixels of all sets of random walks impacting a given pixel are stored along with the area of the possible release zone. (5) We compute the zonal release probability by increasing the release probability according to the size of the release zone - the larger the zone, the larger the probability that a landslide will originate from at least one pixel within this zone. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (6) Finally, we multiply the zonal release probability with the impact probability in order to estimate the combined impact probability for each pixel. We demonstrate the model with a 167 km² study area in Taiwan, using an inventory of landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot. Analyzing the model results leads us to a set of key conclusions: (i) The average composite impact probability over the entire study area corresponds well to the density of observed landside pixels. Therefore we conclude that the method is valid in general, even though the concept of the zonal release probability bears some conceptual issues that have to be kept in mind. (ii) The parameters used as predictors cannot fully explain the observed distribution of landslides. The size of the release zone influences the composite impact probability to a larger degree than the pixel-based release probability. (iii) The prediction rate increases considerably when excluding the largest, deep-seated, landslides from the analysis. We conclude that such landslides are mainly related to geological features hardly reflected in the predictor layers used.

Recurrence of random walks with long-range steps generated by fractional Laplacian matrices on regular networks and simple cubic lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelitsch, T. M.; Collet, B. A.; Riascos, A. P.; Nowakowski, A. F.; Nicolleau, F. C. G. A.

2017-12-01

We analyze a Markovian random walk strategy on undirected regular networks involving power matrix functions of the type L\\frac{α{2}} where L indicates a ‘simple’ Laplacian matrix. We refer to such walks as ‘fractional random walks’ with admissible interval 0<α ≤slant 2 . We deduce probability-generating functions (network Green’s functions) for the fractional random walk. From these analytical results we establish a generalization of Polya’s recurrence theorem for fractional random walks on d-dimensional infinite lattices: The fractional random walk is transient for dimensions d > α (recurrent for d≤slantα ) of the lattice. As a consequence, for 0<α< 1 the fractional random walk is transient for all lattice dimensions d=1, 2, .. and in the range 1≤slantα < 2 for dimensions d≥slant 2 . Finally, for α=2 , Polya’s classical recurrence theorem is recovered, namely the walk is transient only for lattice dimensions d≥slant 3 . The generalization of Polya’s recurrence theorem remains valid for the class of random walks with Lévy flight asymptotics for long-range steps. We also analyze the mean first passage probabilities, mean residence times, mean first passage times and global mean first passage times (Kemeny constant) for the fractional random walk. For an infinite 1D lattice (infinite ring) we obtain for the transient regime 0<α<1 closed form expressions for the fractional lattice Green’s function matrix containing the escape and ever passage probabilities. The ever passage probabilities (fractional lattice Green’s functions) in the transient regime fulfil Riesz potential power law decay asymptotic behavior for nodes far from the departure node. The non-locality of the fractional random walk is generated by the non-diagonality of the fractional Laplacian matrix with Lévy-type heavy tailed inverse power law decay for the probability of long-range moves. This non-local and asymptotic behavior of the fractional random walk introduces small-world properties with the emergence of Lévy flights on large (infinite) lattices.

Metformin for the prevention of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in women with gestational diabetes and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kalafat, Erkan; Sukur, Yavuz Emre; Abdi, Abdulkadir; Thilaganathan, Basky; Khalil, Asma

2018-05-10

Metformin has been reported to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. It is also known to influence soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) levels, which correlate significantly with the gestation of onset and severity of preeclampsia. The main aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine whether metformin use is associated with the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). MEDLINE (1947 - September 2017), Scopus (1970 - September 2017) and the Cochrane Library (since inception - September 2017) were searched for relevant citations in English language. Randomized controlled trials on metformin use, reporting the incidence of preeclampsia or pregnancy induced hypertension were included. Studies on populations with a high probability of metformin use prior to randomization (type II diabetes or polycystic ovary syndrome) were excluded. Random-effects models with Mantel-Haenszel were used for subgroup analyses. Moreover, a Bayesian random-effects meta-regression was used to synthesize the evidence. In total, 3337 citations matched the search criteria. After evaluating the abstracts and full text review, 15 studies were included in the review. Metformin use was associated with a reduced risk of pregnancy induced hypertension when compared to insulin (RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.37-0.85, I^ 2 =0, 1260 women) and a non-significantly reduced risk of preeclampsia (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.60-1.14, I^ 2 =0%, 1724 women). When compared to placebo, metformin use was associated with a non-significant reduction of preeclampsia (RR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.09-6.28, I^ 2 =86%, 840 women). Metformin use was also associated with a non-significant reduction of any HDP (RR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.41-1.25, I^ 2 =0, 556 women) when compared to glyburide. When studies were combined with Bayesian random-effects meta-regression using treatment type as a covariate, the posterior probabilities of metformin having a beneficial effect for the prevention of preeclampsia, pregnancy induced hypertension and any HDP were 92.7%, 92.8% and 99.2%, respectively when compared to any other treatment or placebo. There is a high probability that metformin use is associated with a reduced HDP incidence when compared to other treatments and placebo. The small number of studies included in the analysis, the low quality of evidence and the clinical heterogeneity preclude the generalization of these results to broader populations. Given the clinical importance of this topic and the magnitude of effect observed in this meta-analysis, further prospective trials are urgently needed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

HABITAT ASSESSMENT USING A RANDOM PROBABILITY BASED SAMPLING DESIGN: ESCAMBIA RIVER DELTA, FLORIDA

EPA Science Inventory

Smith, Lisa M., Darrin D. Dantin and Steve Jordan. In press. Habitat Assessment Using a Random Probability Based Sampling Design: Escambia River Delta, Florida (Abstract). To be presented at the SWS/GERS Fall Joint Society Meeting: Communication and Collaboration: Coastal Systems...

Investigation of estimators of probability density functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speed, F. M.

1972-01-01

Four research projects are summarized which include: (1) the generation of random numbers on the IBM 360/44, (2) statistical tests used to check out random number generators, (3) Specht density estimators, and (4) use of estimators of probability density functions in analyzing large amounts of data.

On estimating probability of presence from use-availability or presence-background data.

PubMed

Phillips, Steven J; Elith, Jane

2013-06-01

A fundamental ecological modeling task is to estimate the probability that a species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables. For many species, available data consist of "presence" data (locations where the species [or evidence of it] has been observed), together with "background" data, a random sample of available environmental conditions. Recently published papers disagree on whether probability of presence is identifiable from such presence-background data alone. This paper aims to resolve the disagreement, demonstrating that additional information is required. We defined seven simulated species representing various simple shapes of response to environmental variables (constant, linear, convex, unimodal, S-shaped) and ran five logistic model-fitting methods using 1000 presence samples and 10 000 background samples; the simulations were repeated 100 times. The experiment revealed a stark contrast between two groups of methods: those based on a strong assumption that species' true probability of presence exactly matches a given parametric form had highly variable predictions and much larger RMS error than methods that take population prevalence (the fraction of sites in which the species is present) as an additional parameter. For six species, the former group grossly under- or overestimated probability of presence. The cause was not model structure or choice of link function, because all methods were logistic with linear and, where necessary, quadratic terms. Rather, the experiment demonstrates that an estimate of prevalence is not just helpful, but is necessary (except in special cases) for identifying probability of presence. We therefore advise against use of methods that rely on the strong assumption, due to Lele and Keim (recently advocated by Royle et al.) and Lancaster and Imbens. The methods are fragile, and their strong assumption is unlikely to be true in practice. We emphasize, however, that we are not arguing against standard statistical methods such as logistic regression, generalized linear models, and so forth, none of which requires the strong assumption. If probability of presence is required for a given application, there is no panacea for lack of data. Presence-background data must be augmented with an additional datum, e.g., species' prevalence, to reliably estimate absolute (rather than relative) probability of presence.

Testing Pairwise Association between Spatially Autocorrelated Variables: A New Approach Using Surrogate Lattice Data

PubMed Central

Deblauwe, Vincent; Kennel, Pol; Couteron, Pierre

2012-01-01

Background Independence between observations is a standard prerequisite of traditional statistical tests of association. This condition is, however, violated when autocorrelation is present within the data. In the case of variables that are regularly sampled in space (i.e. lattice data or images), such as those provided by remote-sensing or geographical databases, this problem is particularly acute. Because analytic derivation of the null probability distribution of the test statistic (e.g. Pearson's r) is not always possible when autocorrelation is present, we propose instead the use of a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate data. Methodology/Principal Findings The null hypothesis that two observed mapped variables are the result of independent pattern generating processes is tested here by generating sets of random image data while preserving the autocorrelation function of the original images. Surrogates are generated by matching the dual-tree complex wavelet spectra (and hence the autocorrelation functions) of white noise images with the spectra of the original images. The generated images can then be used to build the probability distribution function of any statistic of association under the null hypothesis. We demonstrate the validity of a statistical test of association based on these surrogates with both actual and synthetic data and compare it with a corrected parametric test and three existing methods that generate surrogates (randomization, random rotations and shifts, and iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform). Type I error control was excellent, even with strong and long-range autocorrelation, which is not the case for alternative methods. Conclusions/Significance The wavelet-based surrogates are particularly appropriate in cases where autocorrelation appears at all scales or is direction-dependent (anisotropy). We explore the potential of the method for association tests involving a lattice of binary data and discuss its potential for validation of species distribution models. An implementation of the method in Java for the generation of wavelet-based surrogates is available online as supporting material. PMID:23144961

Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016).

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2016-01-01

A standard assumption in much of current psychology is that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory but instead use various heuristics or "rules of thumb," which can produce systematic reasoning biases. In Costello and Watts (2014), we showed that a number of these biases can be explained by a model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise. More importantly, that model also predicted agreement with probability theory for certain expressions that cancel the effects of random noise: Experimental results strongly confirmed this prediction, showing that probabilistic reasoning is simultaneously systematically biased and "surprisingly rational." In their commentaries on that paper, both Crupi and Tentori (2016) and Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016) point to various experimental results that, they suggest, our model cannot explain. In this reply, we show that our probability theory plus noise model can in fact explain every one of the results identified by these authors. This gives a degree of additional support to the view that people's probability judgments embody the rational rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments can be explained as simply effects of random noise. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Propensity Score Matching: Retrospective Randomization?

PubMed

Jupiter, Daniel C

Randomized controlled trials are viewed as the optimal study design. In this commentary, we explore the strength of this design and its complexity. We also discuss some situations in which these trials are not possible, or not ethical, or not economical. In such situations, specifically, in retrospective studies, we should make every effort to recapitulate the rigor and strength of the randomized trial. However, we could be faced with an inherent indication bias in such a setting. Thus, we consider the tools available to address that bias. Specifically, we examine matching and introduce and explore a new tool: propensity score matching. This tool allows us to group subjects according to their propensity to be in a particular treatment group and, in so doing, to account for the indication bias. Copyright © 2017 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increasing the discrimination power of ancestry- and identity-informative SNP loci within the ForenSeq™ DNA Signature Prep Kit.

PubMed

King, Jonathan L; Churchill, Jennifer D; Novroski, Nicole M M; Zeng, Xiangpei; Warshauer, David H; Seah, Lay-Hong; Budowle, Bruce

2018-06-06

The use of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in forensic genetics has been limited to challenged samples with low template and/or degraded DNA. The recent introduction of massively parallel sequencing (MPS) technologies has expanded the potential applications of these markers and increased the discrimination power of well-established loci by considering variation in the flanking regions of target loci. The ForenSeq Signature Preparation Kit contains 165 SNP amplicons for ancestry- (aiSNPs), identity- (iiSNPs), and phenotype-inference (piSNPs). In this study, 714 individuals from four major populations (African American, AFA; East Asian, ASN; US Caucasian, CAU; and Southwest US Hispanic, HIS) previously reported by Churchill et al. [Forensic Sci Int Genet. 30 (2017) 81-92; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2017.06.004] were assessed using STRait Razor v2s to determine the level of diversity in the flanking regions of these amplicons. The results show that nearly 70% of loci showed some level of flanking region variation with 22 iiSNPs and 8 aiSNPs categorized as microhaplotypes in this study. The heterozygosities of these microhaplotypes approached, and in one instance surpassed, those of some core STR loci. Also, the impact of the flanking region on other forensic parameters (e.g., power of exclusion and power of discrimination) was examined. Sixteen of the 94 iiSNPs had an effective allele number greater than 2.00 across the four populations. To assess what effect the flanking region information had on the ancestry inference, genotype probabilities and likelihood ratios were determined. Additionally, concordance with the ForenSeq UAS and Nextera Rapid Capture was evaluated, and patterns of heterozygote imbalance were identified. Pairwise comparison of the iiSNP diplotypes determined the probability of detecting a mixture (i.e., observing ≥ 3 haplotypes) using these loci alone was 0.9952. The improvement in random match probabilities for the full regions over the target iiSNPs was found to be significant. When combining the iiSNPs with the autosomal STRs, the combined match probabilities ranged from 6.40 × 10 -73 (ASN) to 1.02 × 10 -79 (AFA). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methodology Series Module 5: Sampling Strategies.

PubMed

Setia, Maninder Singh

2016-01-01

Once the research question and the research design have been finalised, it is important to select the appropriate sample for the study. The method by which the researcher selects the sample is the ' Sampling Method'. There are essentially two types of sampling methods: 1) probability sampling - based on chance events (such as random numbers, flipping a coin etc.); and 2) non-probability sampling - based on researcher's choice, population that accessible & available. Some of the non-probability sampling methods are: purposive sampling, convenience sampling, or quota sampling. Random sampling method (such as simple random sample or stratified random sample) is a form of probability sampling. It is important to understand the different sampling methods used in clinical studies and mention this method clearly in the manuscript. The researcher should not misrepresent the sampling method in the manuscript (such as using the term ' random sample' when the researcher has used convenience sample). The sampling method will depend on the research question. For instance, the researcher may want to understand an issue in greater detail for one particular population rather than worry about the ' generalizability' of these results. In such a scenario, the researcher may want to use ' purposive sampling' for the study.

Methodology Series Module 5: Sampling Strategies

PubMed Central

Setia, Maninder Singh

2016-01-01

Once the research question and the research design have been finalised, it is important to select the appropriate sample for the study. The method by which the researcher selects the sample is the ‘ Sampling Method’. There are essentially two types of sampling methods: 1) probability sampling – based on chance events (such as random numbers, flipping a coin etc.); and 2) non-probability sampling – based on researcher's choice, population that accessible & available. Some of the non-probability sampling methods are: purposive sampling, convenience sampling, or quota sampling. Random sampling method (such as simple random sample or stratified random sample) is a form of probability sampling. It is important to understand the different sampling methods used in clinical studies and mention this method clearly in the manuscript. The researcher should not misrepresent the sampling method in the manuscript (such as using the term ‘ random sample’ when the researcher has used convenience sample). The sampling method will depend on the research question. For instance, the researcher may want to understand an issue in greater detail for one particular population rather than worry about the ‘ generalizability’ of these results. In such a scenario, the researcher may want to use ‘ purposive sampling’ for the study. PMID:27688438

Can Palliative Home Care Reduce 30-Day Readmissions? Results of a Propensity Score Matched Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Anjana; Dougherty, Meredith; Waite, David

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective This study examined the impact of palliative home nursing care on rates of hospital 30-day readmissions. Methods The electronic health record based retrospective cohort study was performed within home care and palliative home care programs. Participants were home care patients discharged from one of three urban teaching hospitals. Outcome measures were propensity score matched rates of hospital readmissions within 30 days of hospital discharge. Results Of 406 palliative home care patients, matches were identified for 392 (96%). Of 15,709 home care patients, 890 were used at least once as a match for palliative care patients, for a total final sample of 1282. Using the matched sample we calculated the average treatment effect for treated patients. In this sample, palliative care patients had a 30-day readmission probability of 9.1% compared to a probability of 17.4% in the home care group (mean ATT: 8.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.0%–8.6%). This effect persisted after adjustment for visit frequency. Conclusions Palliative home care may offer benefits to health systems by allowing patients to remain at home and thereby avoiding 30-day rehospitalizations. PMID:24007348

Development of a Random Field Model for Gas Plume Detection in Multiple LWIR Images.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heasler, Patrick G.

This report develops a random field model that describes gas plumes in LWIR remote sensing images. The random field model serves as a prior distribution that can be combined with LWIR data to produce a posterior that determines the probability that a gas plume exists in the scene and also maps the most probable location of any plume. The random field model is intended to work with a single pixel regression estimator--a regression model that estimates gas concentration on an individual pixel basis.

First-passage problems: A probabilistic dynamic analysis for degraded structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1990-01-01

Structures subjected to random excitations with uncertain system parameters degraded by surrounding environments (a random time history) are studied. Methods are developed to determine the statistics of dynamic responses, such as the time-varying mean, the standard deviation, the autocorrelation functions, and the joint probability density function of any response and its derivative. Moreover, the first-passage problems with deterministic and stationary/evolutionary random barriers are evaluated. The time-varying (joint) mean crossing rate and the probability density function of the first-passage time for various random barriers are derived.

Convergence in High Probability of the Quantum Diffusion in a Random Band Matrix Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margarint, Vlad

2018-06-01

We consider Hermitian random band matrices H in d ≥slant 1 dimensions. The matrix elements H_{xy}, indexed by x, y \\in Λ \\subset Z^d, are independent, uniformly distributed random variable if |x-y| is less than the band width W, and zero otherwise. We update the previous results of the converge of quantum diffusion in a random band matrix model from convergence of the expectation to convergence in high probability. The result is uniformly in the size |Λ| of the matrix.

Exploration properties of biased evanescent random walkers on a one-dimensional lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esguerra, Jose Perico; Reyes, Jelian

2017-08-01

We investigate the combined effects of bias and evanescence on the characteristics of random walks on a one-dimensional lattice. We calculate the time-dependent return probability, eventual return probability, conditional mean return time, and the time-dependent mean number of visited sites of biased immortal and evanescent discrete-time random walkers on a one-dimensional lattice. We then extend the calculations to the case of a continuous-time step-coupled biased evanescent random walk on a one-dimensional lattice with an exponential waiting time distribution.

The effect of unresolved contaminant stars on the cross-matching of photometric catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Tom J.; Naylor, Tim

2017-07-01

A fundamental process in astrophysics is the matching of two photometric catalogues. It is crucial that the correct objects be paired, and that their photometry does not suffer from any spurious additional flux. We compare the positions of sources in Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), INT Photometric H α Survey, Two Micron All Sky Survey and AAVSO Photometric All Sky Survey with Gaia Data Release 1 astrometric positions. We find that the separations are described by a combination of a Gaussian distribution, wider than naively assumed based on their quoted uncertainties, and a large wing, which some authors ascribe to proper motions. We show that this is caused by flux contamination from blended stars not treated separately. We provide linear fits between the quoted Gaussian uncertainty and the core fit to the separation distributions. We show that at least one in three of the stars in the faint half of a given catalogue will suffer from flux contamination above the 1 per cent level when the density of catalogue objects per point spread function area is above approximately 0.005. This has important implications for the creation of composite catalogues. It is important for any closest neighbour matches as there will be a given fraction of matches that are flux contaminated, while some matches will be missed due to significant astrometric perturbation by faint contaminants. In the case of probability-based matching, this contamination affects the probability density function of matches as a function of distance. This effect results in up to 50 per cent fewer counterparts being returned as matches, assuming Gaussian astrometric uncertainties for WISE-Gaia matching in crowded Galactic plane regions, compared with a closest neighbour match.

Polynomial chaos representation of databases on manifolds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr; Ghanem, R., E-mail: ghanem@usc.edu

2017-04-15

Characterizing the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) of a vector-valued random variable with probability distribution concentrated on a manifold is a relevant problem in data-driven settings. The probability distribution of such random vectors is multimodal in general, leading to potentially very slow convergence of the PCE. In this paper, we build on a recent development for estimating and sampling from probabilities concentrated on a diffusion manifold. The proposed methodology constructs a PCE of the random vector together with an associated generator that samples from the target probability distribution which is estimated from data concentrated in the neighborhood of the manifold. Themore » method is robust and remains efficient for high dimension and large datasets. The resulting polynomial chaos construction on manifolds permits the adaptation of many uncertainty quantification and statistical tools to emerging questions motivated by data-driven queries.« less

A Unifying Probability Example.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

2002-01-01

Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

Long-term outcome of patients with newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia: a randomized comparison of stem cell transplantation with drug treatment.

PubMed

Gratwohl, A; Pfirrmann, M; Zander, A; Kröger, N; Beelen, D; Novotny, J; Nerl, C; Scheid, C; Spiekermann, K; Mayer, J; Sayer, H G; Falge, C; Bunjes, D; Döhner, H; Ganser, A; Schmidt-Wolf, I; Schwerdtfeger, R; Baurmann, H; Kuse, R; Schmitz, N; Wehmeier, A; Fischer, J Th; Ho, A D; Wilhelm, M; Goebeler, M-E; Lindemann, H W; Bormann, M; Hertenstein, B; Schlimok, G; Baerlocher, G M; Aul, C; Pfreundschuh, M; Fabian, M; Staib, P; Edinger, M; Schatz, M; Fauser, A; Arnold, R; Kindler, T; Wulf, G; Rosselet, A; Hellmann, A; Schäfer, E; Prümmer, O; Schenk, M; Hasford, J; Heimpel, H; Hossfeld, D K; Kolb, H-J; Büsche, G; Haferlach, C; Schnittger, S; Müller, M C; Reiter, A; Berger, U; Saußele, S; Hochhaus, A; Hehlmann, R

2016-03-01

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors represent today's treatment of choice in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is regarded as salvage therapy. This prospective randomized CML-study IIIA recruited 669 patients with newly diagnosed CML between July 1997 and January 2004 from 143 centers. Of these, 427 patients were considered eligible for HSCT and were randomized by availability of a matched family donor between primary HSCT (group A; N=166 patients) and best available drug treatment (group B; N=261). Primary end point was long-term survival. Survival probabilities were not different between groups A and B (10-year survival: 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.82) vs 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61-0.76)), but influenced by disease and transplant risk. Patients with a low transplant risk showed superior survival compared with patients with high- (P<0.001) and non-high-risk disease (P=0.047) in group B; after entering blast crisis, survival was not different with or without HSCT. Significantly more patients in group A were in molecular remission (56% vs 39%; P=0.005) and free of drug treatment (56% vs 6%; P<0.001). Differences in symptoms and Karnofsky score were not significant. In the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, HSCT remains a valid option when both disease and transplant risk are considered.

Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions.

PubMed

Yura, Harold T; Hanson, Steen G

2012-04-01

Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative examples with relevance for optics are given.

Using Mahalanobis Distance Scores for Matched Pairing of Schools in a Randomized Controlled Trial Study of Leadership and Assistance for Science Education Reform (LASER)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zoblotsky, Todd; Ransford-Kaldon, Carolyn; Morrison, Donald M.

2011-01-01

The present paper describes the recruitment and site selection process that has been underway since January 2011, with particular emphasis on the use of Mahalanobis distance score to determine matched pairs of sites prior to randomization to treatment and control groups. Through a systematic winnowing process, the authors found that they could…

EMPOP-quality mtDNA control region sequences from Kashmiri of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.

PubMed

Rakha, Allah; Peng, Min-Sheng; Bi, Rui; Song, Jiao-Jiao; Salahudin, Zeenat; Adan, Atif; Israr, Muhammad; Yao, Yong-Gang

2016-11-01

The mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (nucleotide position 16024-576) sequences were generated through Sanger sequencing method for 317 self-identified Kashmiris from all districts of Azad Jammu & Kashmir Pakistan. The population sample set showed a total of 251 haplotypes, with a relatively high haplotype diversity (0.9977) and a low random match probability (0.54%). The containing matrilineal lineages belonging to three different phylogeographic origins of Western Eurasian (48.9%), South Asian (47.0%) and East Asian (4.1%). The present study was compared to previous data from Pakistan and other worldwide populations (Central Asia, Western Asia, and East & Southeast Asia). The dataset is made available through EMPOP under accession number EMP00679 and will serve as an mtDNA reference database in forensic casework in Pakistan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The trading rectangle strategy within book models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matassini, Lorenzo

2001-12-01

We introduce a model of trading where traders interact through the insertion of orders in the book. This matching mechanism is a collection of the activity of agents: They can trade at the market price or place a limit order. The latter is valid until cancelled by the trader; to this end we introduce a threshold in time after which the probability of the order to be removed is strongly increased. There is essentially no source of randomness and all the traders share a common strategy, what we call trading rectangle. Since there are no fundamentalist rules, it is not so important to identify the right moment to enter in the market. Much more effort is required to decide when to sell. The model is able to reproduce many of the complex phenomena manifested in real stock markets, including the positive correlation between bid/ask spreads and volatility.

The origin of bounded rationality and intelligence.

PubMed

Lo, Andrew W

2013-09-01

Rational economic behavior in which individuals maximize their own self-interest is only one of many possible types of behavior that arise from natural selection. Given an initial population of individuals, each assigned a purely arbitrary behavior with respect to a binary choice problem, and assuming that offspring behave identically to their parents, only those behaviors linked to reproductive success will survive, and less successful behaviors will disappear exponentially fast. This framework yields a single evolutionary explanation for the origin of several behaviors that have been observed in organisms ranging from bacteria to humans, including risk-sensitive foraging, risk aversion, loss aversion, probability matching, randomization, and diversification. The key to understanding which types of behavior are more likely to survive is how behavior affects reproductive success in a given population's environment. From this perspective, intelligence is naturally defined as behavior that increases the likelihood of reproductive success, and bounds on rationality are determined by physiological and environmental constraints.

Stochastic Models of Emerging Infectious Disease Transmission on Adaptive Random Networks

PubMed Central

Pipatsart, Navavat; Triampo, Wannapong

2017-01-01

We presented adaptive random network models to describe human behavioral change during epidemics and performed stochastic simulations of SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) epidemic models on adaptive random networks. The interplay between infectious disease dynamics and network adaptation dynamics was investigated in regard to the disease transmission and the cumulative number of infection cases. We found that the cumulative case was reduced and associated with an increasing network adaptation probability but was increased with an increasing disease transmission probability. It was found that the topological changes of the adaptive random networks were able to reduce the cumulative number of infections and also to delay the epidemic peak. Our results also suggest the existence of a critical value for the ratio of disease transmission and adaptation probabilities below which the epidemic cannot occur. PMID:29075314

Within-Cluster and Across-Cluster Matching with Observational Multilevel Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Jee-Seon; Steiner, Peter M.; Hall, Courtney; Thoemmes, Felix

2013-01-01

When randomized experiments cannot be conducted in practice, propensity score (PS) techniques for matching treated and control units are frequently used for estimating causal treatment effects from observational data. Despite the popularity of PS techniques, they are not yet well studied for matching multilevel data where selection into treatment…

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

Effects of a lighter, smaller football on acute match injuries in adolescent female football: a pilot cluster-randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Zebis, Mette K; Thorborg, Kristian; Andersen, Lars L; Møller, Merete; Christensen, Karl B; Clausen, Mikkel B; Hölmich, Per; Wedderkopp, Niels; Andersen, Thomas B; Krustrup, Peter

2018-05-01

The high injury incidence during match-play in female adolescent football is a major concern. In football, males and females play matches with the same football size. No studies have investigated the effect of football size on injury incidence in female adolescent football. Thus, the aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of introducing a lighter, smaller football on the injury pattern in female adolescent football. We conducted a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial including 26 football teams representing 346 adolescent female football players (age 15-18 years). The teams were randomized to a new lighter, smaller football (INT, N.=12 teams) or a traditional FIFA size 5 football (CON, N.=14 teams) during a full match-season. Acute time-loss injuries and football-exposure during match-play were reported weekly by text-message questions and verified subsequently by telephone interview. In total, 46 acute time-loss injuries were registered (5 severe injuries), yielding an incidence rate of 15.2 injuries per 1000 hours of match-play (95% CI: 8.5-27.2) in INT and 18.6 injuries per 1000 hours of match-play (95% CI: 14.0-24.8) in CON. The estimated 22% greater injury incidence rate risk (IRR: 1.22 [95% CI: 0.64-2.35]) in the CON group was not significant. With an IRR of 1.22, a future RCT main study would need to observe 793 acute time-loss injuries during match-play, in order to have a power of 80%. A large-scaled RCT is required to definitively test for beneficial or harmful effects of a lighter, smaller football in adolescent female football.

A random generation approach to pattern library creation for full chip lithographic simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Elain; Hong, Sid; Liu, Limei; Huang, Lucas; Yang, Legender; Kabeel, Aliaa; Madkour, Kareem; ElManhawy, Wael; Kwan, Joe; Du, Chunshan; Hu, Xinyi; Wan, Qijian; Zhang, Recoo

2017-04-01

As technology advances, the need for running lithographic (litho) checking for early detection of hotspots before tapeout has become essential. This process is important at all levels—from designing standard cells and small blocks to large intellectual property (IP) and full chip layouts. Litho simulation provides high accuracy for detecting printability issues due to problematic geometries, but it has the disadvantage of slow performance on large designs and blocks [1]. Foundries have found a good compromise solution for running litho simulation on full chips by filtering out potential candidate hotspot patterns using pattern matching (PM), and then performing simulation on the matched locations. The challenge has always been how to easily create a PM library of candidate patterns that provides both comprehensive coverage for litho problems and fast runtime performance. This paper presents a new strategy for generating candidate real design patterns through a random generation approach using a layout schema generator (LSG) utility. The output patterns from the LSG are simulated, and then classified by a scoring mechanism that categorizes patterns according to the severity of the hotspots, probability of their presence in the design, and the likelihood of the pattern causing a hotspot. The scoring output helps to filter out the yield problematic patterns that should be removed from any standard cell design, and also to define potential problematic patterns that must be simulated within a bigger context to decide whether or not they represent an actual hotspot. This flow is demonstrated on SMIC 14nm technology, creating a candidate hotspot pattern library that can be used in full chip simulation with very high coverage and robust performance.

Exponential series approaches for nonparametric graphical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janofsky, Eric

Markov Random Fields (MRFs) or undirected graphical models are parsimonious representations of joint probability distributions. This thesis studies high-dimensional, continuous-valued pairwise Markov Random Fields. We are particularly interested in approximating pairwise densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev space. For this problem we propose the method of exponential series which approximates the log density by a finite-dimensional exponential family with the number of sufficient statistics increasing with the sample size. We consider two approaches to estimating these models. The first is regularized maximum likelihood. This involves optimizing the sum of the log-likelihood of the data and a sparsity-inducing regularizer. We then propose a variational approximation to the likelihood based on tree-reweighted, nonparametric message passing. This approximation allows for upper bounds on risk estimates, leverages parallelization and is scalable to densities on hundreds of nodes. We show how the regularized variational MLE may be estimated using a proximal gradient algorithm. We then consider estimation using regularized score matching. This approach uses an alternative scoring rule to the log-likelihood, which obviates the need to compute the normalizing constant of the distribution. For general continuous-valued exponential families, we provide parameter and edge consistency results. As a special case we detail a new approach to sparse precision matrix estimation which has statistical performance competitive with the graphical lasso and computational performance competitive with the state-of-the-art glasso algorithm. We then describe results for model selection in the nonparametric pairwise model using exponential series. The regularized score matching problem is shown to be a convex program; we provide scalable algorithms based on consensus alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and coordinate-wise descent. We use simulations to compare our method to others in the literature as well as the aforementioned TRW estimator.

Statistical and population genetics issues of two Hungarian datasets from the aspect of DNA evidence interpretation.

PubMed

Szabolcsi, Zoltán; Farkas, Zsuzsa; Borbély, Andrea; Bárány, Gusztáv; Varga, Dániel; Heinrich, Attila; Völgyi, Antónia; Pamjav, Horolma

2015-11-01

When the DNA profile from a crime-scene matches that of a suspect, the weight of DNA evidence depends on the unbiased estimation of the match probability of the profiles. For this reason, it is required to establish and expand the databases that reflect the actual allele frequencies in the population applied. 21,473 complete DNA profiles from Databank samples were used to establish the allele frequency database to represent the population of Hungarian suspects. We used fifteen STR loci (PowerPlex ESI16) including five, new ESS loci. The aim was to calculate the statistical, forensic efficiency parameters for the Databank samples and compare the newly detected data to the earlier report. The population substructure caused by relatedness may influence the frequency of profiles estimated. As our Databank profiles were considered non-random samples, possible relationships between the suspects can be assumed. Therefore, population inbreeding effect was estimated using the FIS calculation. The overall inbreeding parameter was found to be 0.0106. Furthermore, we tested the impact of the two allele frequency datasets on 101 randomly chosen STR profiles, including full and partial profiles. The 95% confidence interval estimates for the profile frequencies (pM) resulted in a tighter range when we used the new dataset compared to the previously published ones. We found that the FIS had less effect on frequency values in the 21,473 samples than the application of minimum allele frequency. No genetic substructure was detected by STRUCTURE analysis. Due to the low level of inbreeding effect and the high number of samples, the new dataset provides unbiased and precise estimates of LR for statistical interpretation of forensic casework and allows us to use lower allele frequencies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new plan-scoring method using normal tissue complication probability for personalized treatment plan decisions in prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwang Hyeon; Lee, Suk; Shim, Jang Bo; Yang, Dae Sik; Yoon, Won Sup; Park, Young Je; Kim, Chul Yong; Cao, Yuan Jie; Chang, Kyung Hwan

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to derive a new plan-scoring index using normal tissue complication probabilities to verify different plans in the selection of personalized treatment. Plans for 12 patients treated with tomotherapy were used to compare scoring for ranking. Dosimetric and biological indexes were analyzed for the plans for a clearly distinguishable group ( n = 7) and a similar group ( n = 12), using treatment plan verification software that we developed. The quality factor ( QF) of our support software for treatment decisions was consistent with the final treatment plan for the clearly distinguishable group (average QF = 1.202, 100% match rate, n = 7) and the similar group (average QF = 1.058, 33% match rate, n = 12). Therefore, we propose a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) based on the plan scoring index for verification of different plans for personalized treatment-plan selection. Scoring using the new QF showed a 100% match rate (average NTCP QF = 1.0420). The NTCP-based new QF scoring method was adequate for obtaining biological verification quality and organ risk saving using the treatment-planning decision-support software we developed for prostate cancer.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory.

PubMed

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles' extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic-scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are "random environment" settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic-scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark's law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)-in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes-and present "randomized counterparts" to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

Randomized central limit theorems: A unified theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliazar, Iddo; Klafter, Joseph

2010-08-01

The central limit theorems (CLTs) characterize the macroscopic statistical behavior of large ensembles of independent and identically distributed random variables. The CLTs assert that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ aggregate statistics are either Gaussian or Lévy, and that the universal probability laws governing ensembles’ extreme statistics are Fréchet, Weibull, or Gumbel. The scaling schemes underlying the CLTs are deterministic—scaling all ensemble components by a common deterministic scale. However, there are “random environment” settings in which the underlying scaling schemes are stochastic—scaling the ensemble components by different random scales. Examples of such settings include Holtsmark’s law for gravitational fields and the Stretched Exponential law for relaxation times. In this paper we establish a unified theory of randomized central limit theorems (RCLTs)—in which the deterministic CLT scaling schemes are replaced with stochastic scaling schemes—and present “randomized counterparts” to the classic CLTs. The RCLT scaling schemes are shown to be governed by Poisson processes with power-law statistics, and the RCLTs are shown to universally yield the Lévy, Fréchet, and Weibull probability laws.

A statistical method for assessing peptide identification confidence in accurate mass and time tag proteomics

PubMed Central

Stanley, Jeffrey R.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Slysz, Gordon W.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Karpievitch, Yuliya V.; Anderson, Gordon A.; Smith, Richard D.; Dabney, Alan R.

2011-01-01

Current algorithms for quantifying peptide identification confidence in the accurate mass and time (AMT) tag approach assume that the AMT tags themselves have been correctly identified. However, there is uncertainty in the identification of AMT tags, as this is based on matching LC-MS/MS fragmentation spectra to peptide sequences. In this paper, we incorporate confidence measures for the AMT tag identifications into the calculation of probabilities for correct matches to an AMT tag database, resulting in a more accurate overall measure of identification confidence for the AMT tag approach. The method is referred to as Statistical Tools for AMT tag Confidence (STAC). STAC additionally provides a Uniqueness Probability (UP) to help distinguish between multiple matches to an AMT tag and a method to calculate an overall false discovery rate (FDR). STAC is freely available for download as both a command line and a Windows graphical application. PMID:21692516

The effects of the one-step replica symmetry breaking on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model in the presence of random field with a joint Gaussian probability density function for the exchange interactions and random fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjiagapiou, Ioannis A.; Velonakis, Ioannis N.

2018-07-01

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Ising spin glass model, in the presence of a random magnetic field, is investigated within the framework of the one-step replica symmetry breaking. The two random variables (exchange integral interaction Jij and random magnetic field hi) are drawn from a joint Gaussian probability density function characterized by a correlation coefficient ρ, assuming positive and negative values. The thermodynamic properties, the three different phase diagrams and system's parameters are computed with respect to the natural parameters of the joint Gaussian probability density function at non-zero and zero temperatures. The low temperature negative entropy controversy, a result of the replica symmetry approach, has been partly remedied in the current study, leading to a less negative result. In addition, the present system possesses two successive spin glass phase transitions with characteristic temperatures.

University Students' Conceptual Knowledge of Randomness and Probability in the Contexts of Evolution and Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiedler, Daniela; Tröbst, Steffen; Harms, Ute

2017-01-01

Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution-- the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract "threshold" concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument…

Kolmogorov complexity, statistical regularization of inverse problems, and Birkhoff's formalization of beauty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreinovich, Vladik; Longpre, Luc; Koshelev, Misha

1998-09-01

Most practical applications of statistical methods are based on the implicit assumption that if an event has a very small probability, then it cannot occur. For example, the probability that a kettle placed on a cold stove would start boiling by itself is not 0, it is positive, but it is so small, that physicists conclude that such an event is simply impossible. This assumption is difficult to formalize in traditional probability theory, because this theory only describes measures on sets and does not allow us to divide functions into 'random' and non-random ones. This distinction was made possible by the idea of algorithmic randomness, introduce by Kolmogorov and his student Martin- Loef in the 1960s. We show that this idea can also be used for inverse problems. In particular, we prove that for every probability measure, the corresponding set of random functions is compact, and, therefore, the corresponding restricted inverse problem is well-defined. The resulting techniques turns out to be interestingly related with the qualitative esthetic measure introduced by G. Birkhoff as order/complexity.

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, G. M.; Bradley, P. G.

1971-01-01

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaca, M. V.; Tretter, S. A.

1977-01-01

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are obtained. The approach is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. A general representation for optimum estimates and recursive equations for minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimates are obtained. MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a probability density function of the form cx super K (l-x) super m and show that the MMSE estimates are linear in this case. This class of density functions explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaca, M. V.; Tretter, S. A.

1978-01-01

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are derived. The approach used is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. Thus a general representation is obtained for optimum estimates, and recursive equations are derived for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimates. In general, MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem is considered of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a beta probability density function and the jump amplitudes are binomially distributed. It is shown that the MMSE estimates are linear. The class of beta density functions is rather rich and explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Estimation of reliability and dynamic property for polymeric material at high strain rate using SHPB technique and probability theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dong Hyeok; Lee, Ouk Sub; Kim, Hong Min; Choi, Hye Bin

2008-11-01

A modified Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar technique with aluminum pressure bars and a pulse shaper technique to achieve a closer impedance match between the pressure bars and the specimen materials such as hot temperature degraded POM (Poly Oxy Methylene) and PP (Poly Propylene). The more distinguishable experimental signals were obtained to evaluate the more accurate dynamic deformation behavior of materials under a high strain rate loading condition. A pulse shaping technique is introduced to reduce the non-equilibrium on the dynamic material response by modulation of the incident wave during a short period of test. This increases the rise time of the incident pulse in the SHPB experiment. For the dynamic stress strain curve obtained from SHPB experiment, the Johnson-Cook model is applied as a constitutive equation. The applicability of this constitutive equation is verified by using the probabilistic reliability estimation method. Two reliability methodologies such as the FORM and the SORM have been proposed. The limit state function(LSF) includes the Johnson-Cook model and applied stresses. The LSF in this study allows more statistical flexibility on the yield stress than a paper published before. It is found that the failure probability estimated by using the SORM is more reliable than those of the FORM/ It is also noted that the failure probability increases with increase of the applied stress. Moreover, it is also found that the parameters of Johnson-Cook model such as A and n, and the applied stress are found to affect the failure probability more severely than the other random variables according to the sensitivity analysis.

Population genetic study of 10 short tandem repeat loci from 600 domestic dogs in Korea.

PubMed

Moon, Seo Hyun; Jang, Yoon-Jeong; Han, Myun Soo; Cho, Myung-Haing

2016-09-30

Dogs have long shared close relationships with many humans. Due to the large number of dogs in human populations, they are often involved in crimes. Occasionally, canine biological evidence such as saliva, bloodstains and hairs can be found at crime scenes. Accordingly, canine DNA can be used as forensic evidence. The use of short tandem repeat (STR) loci from biological evidence is valuable for forensic investigations. In Korea, canine STR profiling-related crimes are being successfully analyzed, leading to diverse crimes such as animal cruelty, dog-attacks, murder, robbery, and missing and abandoned dogs being solved. However, the probability of random DNA profile matches cannot be analyzed because of a lack of canine STR data. Therefore, in this study, 10 STR loci were analyzed in 600 dogs in Korea (344 dogs belonging to 30 different purebreds and 256 crossbred dogs) to estimate canine forensic genetic parameters. Among purebred dogs, a separate statistical analysis was conducted for five major subgroups, 97 Maltese, 47 Poodles, 31 Shih Tzus, 32 Yorkshire Terriers, and 25 Pomeranians. Allele frequencies, expected (Hexp) and observed heterozygosity (Hobs), fixation index (F), probability of identity (P(ID)), probability of sibling identity (P(ID)sib) and probability of exclusion (PE) were then calculated. The Hexp values ranged from 0.901 (PEZ12) to 0.634 (FHC2079), while the P(ID)sib values were between 0.481 (FHC2079) and 0.304 (PEZ12) and the P(ID)sib was about 3.35 × 10(-)⁵ for the combination of all 10 loci. The results presented herein will strengthen the value of canine DNA to solving dog-related crimes.

Moisture Content Influences Ignitability of Slash Pine Litter

Treesearch

Winfred H. Blackmarr

1972-01-01

The influence of moisture content on the ignitability of slash pine litter was measured by dropping lighted matches onto fuel beds conditioned to different levels of moisture content.The percentage of matches igniting the fuel bed was used to indicate ignition probability at each moisture content. The "critical range" of fuel moisture contents within which...

A stochastic Markov chain approach for tennis: Monte Carlo simulation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslam, Kamran

This dissertation describes the computational formulation of probability density functions (pdfs) that facilitate head-to-head match simulations in tennis along with ranking systems developed from their use. A background on the statistical method used to develop the pdfs , the Monte Carlo method, and the resulting rankings are included along with a discussion on ranking methods currently being used both in professional sports and in other applications. Using an analytical theory developed by Newton and Keller in [34] that defines a tennis player's probability of winning a game, set, match and single elimination tournament, a computational simulation has been developed in Matlab that allows further modeling not previously possible with the analytical theory alone. Such experimentation consists of the exploration of non-iid effects, considers the concept the varying importance of points in a match and allows an unlimited number of matches to be simulated between unlikely opponents. The results of these studies have provided pdfs that accurately model an individual tennis player's ability along with a realistic, fair and mathematically sound platform for ranking them.

University Students' Conceptual Knowledge of Randomness and Probability in the Contexts of Evolution and Mathematics.

PubMed

Fiedler, Daniela; Tröbst, Steffen; Harms, Ute

2017-01-01

Students of all ages face severe conceptual difficulties regarding key aspects of evolution-the central, unifying, and overarching theme in biology. Aspects strongly related to abstract "threshold" concepts like randomness and probability appear to pose particular difficulties. A further problem is the lack of an appropriate instrument for assessing students' conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the context of evolution. To address this problem, we have developed two instruments, Ra ndomness and Pro bability Test in the Context of Evo lution (RaProEvo) and Ra ndomness and Pro bability Test in the Context of Math ematics (RaProMath), that include both multiple-choice and free-response items. The instruments were administered to 140 university students in Germany, then the Rasch partial-credit model was applied to assess them. The results indicate that the instruments generate reliable and valid inferences about students' conceptual knowledge of randomness and probability in the two contexts (which are separable competencies). Furthermore, RaProEvo detected significant differences in knowledge of randomness and probability, as well as evolutionary theory, between biology majors and preservice biology teachers. © 2017 D. Fiedler et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2017 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Complete Numerical Solution of the Diffusion Equation of Random Genetic Drift

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lei; Yue, Xingye; Waxman, David

2013-01-01

A numerical method is presented to solve the diffusion equation for the random genetic drift that occurs at a single unlinked locus with two alleles. The method was designed to conserve probability, and the resulting numerical solution represents a probability distribution whose total probability is unity. We describe solutions of the diffusion equation whose total probability is unity as complete. Thus the numerical method introduced in this work produces complete solutions, and such solutions have the property that whenever fixation and loss can occur, they are automatically included within the solution. This feature demonstrates that the diffusion approximation can describe not only internal allele frequencies, but also the boundary frequencies zero and one. The numerical approach presented here constitutes a single inclusive framework from which to perform calculations for random genetic drift. It has a straightforward implementation, allowing it to be applied to a wide variety of problems, including those with time-dependent parameters, such as changing population sizes. As tests and illustrations of the numerical method, it is used to determine: (i) the probability density and time-dependent probability of fixation for a neutral locus in a population of constant size; (ii) the probability of fixation in the presence of selection; and (iii) the probability of fixation in the presence of selection and demographic change, the latter in the form of a changing population size. PMID:23749318

Open quantum random walk in terms of quantum Bernoulli noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Caishi; Wang, Ce; Ren, Suling; Tang, Yuling

2018-03-01

In this paper, we introduce an open quantum random walk, which we call the QBN-based open walk, by means of quantum Bernoulli noise, and study its properties from a random walk point of view. We prove that, with the localized ground state as its initial state, the QBN-based open walk has the same limit probability distribution as the classical random walk. We also show that the probability distributions of the QBN-based open walk include those of the unitary quantum walk recently introduced by Wang and Ye (Quantum Inf Process 15:1897-1908, 2016) as a special case.

Brief communication: Drought likelihood for East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Huntingford, Chris

2018-02-01

The East Africa drought in autumn of year 2016 caused malnutrition, illness and death. Close to 16 million people across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya needed food, water and medical assistance. Many factors influence drought stress and response. However, inevitably the following question is asked: are elevated greenhouse gas concentrations altering extreme rainfall deficit frequency? We investigate this with general circulation models (GCMs). After GCM bias correction to match the climatological mean of the CHIRPS data-based rainfall product, climate models project small decreases in probability of drought with the same (or worse) severity as 2016 ASO (August to October) East African event. This is by the end of the 21st century compared to the probabilities for present day. However, when further adjusting the climatological variability of GCMs to also match CHIRPS data, by additionally bias-correcting for variance, then the probability of drought occurrence will increase slightly over the same period.

Scaling behavior for random walks with memory of the largest distance from the origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Maurizio

2013-11-01

We study a one-dimensional random walk with memory. The behavior of the walker is modified with respect to the simple symmetric random walk only when he or she is at the maximum distance ever reached from his or her starting point (home). In this case, having the choice to move farther or to move closer, the walker decides with different probabilities. If the probability of a forward step is higher then the probability of a backward step, the walker is bold, otherwise he or she is timorous. We investigate the asymptotic properties of this bold-timorous random walk, showing that the scaling behavior varies continuously from subdiffusive (timorous) to superdiffusive (bold). The scaling exponents are fully determined with a new mathematical approach based on a decomposition of the dynamics in active journeys (the walker is at the maximum distance) and lazy journeys (the walker is not at the maximum distance).

Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2014-07-01

The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Modular Approach to Therapy for Anxiety, Depression, Trauma, or Conduct Problems in outpatient child and adolescent mental health services in New Zealand: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Lucassen, Mathijs F G; Stasiak, Karolina; Crengle, Sue; Weisz, John R; Frampton, Christopher M A; Bearman, Sarah Kate; Ugueto, Ana M; Herren, Jennifer; Cribb-Su'a, Ainsleigh; Faleafa, Monique; Kingi-'Ulu'ave, Denise; Loy, Jik; Scott, Rebecca M; Hartdegen, Morgyn; Merry, Sally N

2015-10-12

Mental health disorders are common and disabling for young people because of the potential to disrupt key developmental tasks. Implementation of evidence-based psychosocial therapies in New Zealand is limited, owing to the inaccessibility, length, and cost of training in these therapies. Furthermore, most therapies address one problem area at a time, although comorbidity and changing clinical needs commonly occur in practice. A more flexible approach is needed. The Modular Approach to Therapy for Children with Anxiety, Depression, Trauma, or Conduct Problems (MATCH-ADTC) is designed to overcome these challenges; it provides a range of treatment modules addressing different problems, within a single training program. A clinical trial of MATCH-ADTC in the USA showed that MATCH-ADTC outperformed usual care and standard evidence-based treatment on several clinical measures. We aim to replicate these findings and evaluate the impact of providing training and supervision in MATCH-ADTC to: (1) improve clinical outcomes for youth attending mental health services; (2) increase the amount of evidence-based therapy content; (3) increase the efficiency of service delivery. This is an assessor-blinded multi-site effectiveness randomized controlled trial. Randomization occurs at two levels: (1) clinicians (≥60) are randomized to intervention or usual care; (2) youth participants (7-14 years old) accepted for treatment in child and adolescent mental health services (with a primary disorder that includes anxiety, depression, trauma-related symptoms, or disruptive behavior) are randomly allocated to receive MATCH-ADTC or usual care. Youth participants are recruited from 'mainstream', Māori-specific, and Pacific-specific child and adolescent mental health services. We originally planned to recruit 400 youth participants, but this has been revised to 200 participants. Centralized computer randomization ensures allocation concealment. The primary outcome measures are: (i) the difference in trajectory of change of clinical severity between groups (using the parent-rated Brief Problem Monitor); (ii) clinicians' use of evidence-based treatment procedures during therapy sessions; (iii) total time spent by clinicians delivering therapy. If MATCH-ADTC demonstrates effectiveness it could offer a practical efficient method to increase access to evidence-based therapies, and improve outcomes for youth attending secondary care services. Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12614000297628 .

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes and Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy on Incidence of Cognitive Impairment in Older Women

PubMed Central

Brinton, Roberta Diaz; Hugenschmidt, Christina; Manson, JoAnn E.; Craft, Suzanne; Yaffe, Kristine; Weitlauf, Julie; Vaughan, Leslie; Johnson, Karen C.; Padula, Claudia B.; Jackson, Rebecca D.; Resnick, Susan M.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE In older women, higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate the increased risk for cognitive impairment conveyed by diabetes. We examined whether the effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) on cognitive impairment incidence differs depending on type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trials assigned women to HT (0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens with or without [i.e., unopposed] 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate) or matching placebo for an average of 4.7–5.9 years. A total of 7,233 women, aged 65–80 years, were classified according to type 2 diabetes status and followed for probable dementia and cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). RESULTS Through a maximum of 18 years of follow-up, women with diabetes had increased risk of probable dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54 [95% CI 1.16–2.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 1.83 [1.50–2.23]). The combination of diabetes and random assignment to HT increased their risk of dementia (HR 2.12 [1.47–3.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 2.20 [1.70–2.87]) compared with women without these conditions, interaction P = 0.09 and P = 0.08. These interactions appeared to be limited to women assigned to unopposed conjugated equine estrogens. CONCLUSIONS These analyses provide additional support to a prior report that higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate risks that type 2 diabetes poses for cognitive function in older women. The role estrogen plays in suppressing non–glucose-based energy sources in the brain may explain this interaction. PMID:26486190

Impact of Type 2 Diabetes and Postmenopausal Hormone Therapy on Incidence of Cognitive Impairment in Older Women.

PubMed

Espeland, Mark A; Brinton, Roberta Diaz; Hugenschmidt, Christina; Manson, JoAnn E; Craft, Suzanne; Yaffe, Kristine; Weitlauf, Julie; Vaughan, Leslie; Johnson, Karen C; Padula, Claudia B; Jackson, Rebecca D; Resnick, Susan M

2015-12-01

In older women, higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate the increased risk for cognitive impairment conveyed by diabetes. We examined whether the effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) on cognitive impairment incidence differs depending on type 2 diabetes. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized clinical trials assigned women to HT (0.625 mg/day conjugated equine estrogens with or without [i.e., unopposed] 2.5 mg/day medroxyprogesterone acetate) or matching placebo for an average of 4.7-5.9 years. A total of 7,233 women, aged 65-80 years, were classified according to type 2 diabetes status and followed for probable dementia and cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). Through a maximum of 18 years of follow-up, women with diabetes had increased risk of probable dementia (hazard ratio [HR] 1.54 [95% CI 1.16-2.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 1.83 [1.50-2.23]). The combination of diabetes and random assignment to HT increased their risk of dementia (HR 2.12 [1.47-3.06]) and cognitive impairment (HR 2.20 [1.70-2.87]) compared with women without these conditions, interaction P = 0.09 and P = 0.08. These interactions appeared to be limited to women assigned to unopposed conjugated equine estrogens. These analyses provide additional support to a prior report that higher levels of estrogen may exacerbate risks that type 2 diabetes poses for cognitive function in older women. The role estrogen plays in suppressing non-glucose-based energy sources in the brain may explain this interaction. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

Theoretical size distribution of fossil taxa: analysis of a null model.

PubMed

Reed, William J; Hughes, Barry D

2007-03-22

This article deals with the theoretical size distribution (of number of sub-taxa) of a fossil taxon arising from a simple null model of macroevolution. New species arise through speciations occurring independently and at random at a fixed probability rate, while extinctions either occur independently and at random (background extinctions) or cataclysmically. In addition new genera are assumed to arise through speciations of a very radical nature, again assumed to occur independently and at random at a fixed probability rate. The size distributions of the pioneering genus (following a cataclysm) and of derived genera are determined. Also the distribution of the number of genera is considered along with a comparison of the probability of a monospecific genus with that of a monogeneric family.

Depth of word processing in Alzheimer patients and normal controls: a magnetoencephalographic (MEG) study.

PubMed

Walla, P; Püregger, E; Lehrner, J; Mayer, D; Deecke, L; Dal Bianco, P

2005-05-01

Effects related to depth of verbal information processing were investigated in probable Alzheimer's disease patients (AD) and age matched controls. During word encoding sessions 10 patients and 10 controls had either to decide whether the letter "s" appeared in visually presented words (alphabetical decision, shallow encoding), or whether the meaning of each presented word was animate or inanimate (lexical decision, deep encoding). These encoding sessions were followed by test sessions during which all previously encoded words were presented again together with the same number of new words. The task was then to discriminate between repeated and new words. Magnetic field changes related to brain activity were recorded with a whole cortex MEG.5 probable AD patients showed recognition performances above chance level related to both depths of information processing. Those patients and 5 age matched controls were then further analysed. Recognition performance was poorer in probable AD patients compared to controls for both levels of processing. However, in both groups deep encoding led to a higher recognition performance than shallow encoding. We therefore conclude that the performance reduction in the patient group was independent of depth of processing. Reaction times related to false alarms differed between patients and controls after deep encoding which perhaps could already be used for supporting an early diagnosis. The analysis of the physiological data revealed significant differences between correctly recognised repetitions and correctly classified new words (old/new-effect) in the control group which were missing in the patient group after deep encoding. The lack of such an effect in the patient group is interpreted as being due to the respective neuropathology related to probable AD. The present results demonstrate that magnetic field recordings represent a useful tool to physiologically distinguish between probable AD and age matched controls.

Local approximation of a metapopulation's equilibrium.

PubMed

Barbour, A D; McVinish, R; Pollett, P K

2018-04-18

We consider the approximation of the equilibrium of a metapopulation model, in which a finite number of patches are randomly distributed over a bounded subset [Formula: see text] of Euclidean space. The approximation is good when a large number of patches contribute to the colonization pressure on any given unoccupied patch, and when the quality of the patches varies little over the length scale determined by the colonization radius. If this is the case, the equilibrium probability of a patch at z being occupied is shown to be close to [Formula: see text], the equilibrium occupation probability in Levins's model, at any point [Formula: see text] not too close to the boundary, if the local colonization pressure and extinction rates appropriate to z are assumed. The approximation is justified by giving explicit upper and lower bounds for the occupation probabilities, expressed in terms of the model parameters. Since the patches are distributed randomly, the occupation probabilities are also random, and we complement our bounds with explicit bounds on the probability that they are satisfied at all patches simultaneously.

Prolonged university outbreak of meningococcal disease associated with a serogroup B strain rarely seen in the United States.

PubMed

Mandal, Sema; Wu, Henry M; MacNeil, Jessica R; Machesky, Kimberly; Garcia, Jocelyn; Plikaytis, Brian D; Quinn, Kim; King, Larry; Schmink, Susanna E; Wang, Xin; Mayer, Leonard W; Clark, Thomas A; Gaskell, James R; Messonnier, Nancy E; DiOrio, Mary; Cohn, Amanda C

2013-08-01

College students living in residential halls are at increased risk of meningococcal disease. Unlike that for serogroups prevented by quadrivalent meningococcal vaccines, public health response to outbreaks of serogroup B meningococcal disease is limited by lack of a US licensed vaccine. In March 2010, we investigated a prolonged outbreak of serogroup B disease associated with a university. In addition to case ascertainment, molecular typing of isolates was performed to characterize the outbreak. We conducted a matched case-control study to examine risk factors for serogroup B disease. Five controls per case, matched by college year, were randomly selected. Participants completed a risk factor questionnaire. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. Between January 2008 and November 2010, we identified 13 meningococcal disease cases (7 confirmed, 4 probable, and 2 suspected) involving 10 university students and 3 university-linked persons. One student died. Ten cases were determined to be serogroup B. Isolates from 6 confirmed cases had an indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern and belonged to sequence type 269, clonal complex 269. Factors significantly associated with disease were Greek society membership (matched odds ratio [mOR], 15.0; P = .03), >1 kissing partner (mOR, 13.66; P = .03), and attending bars (mOR, 8.06; P = .04). The outbreak was associated with a novel serogroup B strain (CC269) and risk factors were indicative of increased social mixing. Control measures were appropriate but limited by lack of vaccine. Understanding serogroup B transmission in college and other settings will help inform use of serogroup B vaccines currently under consideration for licensure.

Women's Contraceptive Preference-Use Mismatch

PubMed Central

He, Katherine; Dalton, Vanessa K.; Zochowski, Melissa K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Family planning research has not adequately addressed women's preferences for different contraceptive methods and whether women's contraceptive experiences match their preferences. Methods: Data were drawn from the Women's Healthcare Experiences and Preferences Study, an Internet survey of 1,078 women aged 18–55 randomly sampled from a national probability panel. Survey items assessed women's preferences for contraceptive methods, match between methods preferred and used, and perceived reasons for mismatch. We estimated predictors of contraceptive preference with multinomial logistic regression models. Results: Among women at risk for pregnancy who responded with their preferred method (n = 363), hormonal methods (non-LARC [long-acting reversible contraception]) were the most preferred method (34%), followed by no method (23%) and LARC (18%). Sociodemographic differences in contraception method preferences were noted (p-values <0.05), generally with minority, married, and older women having higher rates of preferring less effective methods, compared to their counterparts. Thirty-six percent of women reported preference-use mismatch, with the majority preferring more effective methods than those they were using. Rates of match between preferred and usual methods were highest for LARC (76%), hormonal (non-LARC) (65%), and no method (65%). The most common reasons for mismatch were cost/insurance (41%), lack of perceived/actual need (34%), and method-specific preference concerns (19%). Conclusion: While preference for effective contraception was common among this sample of women, we found substantial mismatch between preferred and usual methods, notably among women of lower socioeconomic status and women using less effective methods. Findings may have implications for patient-centered contraceptive interventions. PMID:27710196

Cellular automata model for drug release from binary matrix and reservoir polymeric devices.

PubMed

Johannes Laaksonen, Timo; Mikael Laaksonen, Hannu; Tapio Hirvonen, Jouni; Murtomäki, Lasse

2009-04-01

Kinetics of drug release from polymeric tablets, inserts and implants is an important and widely studied area. Here we present a new and widely applicable cellular automata model for diffusion and erosion processes occurring during drug release from polymeric drug release devices. The model divides a 2D representation of the release device into an array of cells. Each cell contains information about the material, drug, polymer or solvent that the domain contains. Cells are then allowed to rearrange according to statistical rules designed to match realistic drug release. Diffusion is modeled by a random walk of mobile cells and kinetics of chemical or physical processes by probabilities of conversion from one state to another. This is according to the basis of diffusion coefficients and kinetic rate constants, which are on fundamental level just probabilities for certain occurrences. The model is applied to three kinds of devices with different release mechanisms: erodable matrices, diffusion through channels or pores and membrane controlled release. The dissolution curves obtained are compared to analytical models from literature and the validity of the model is considered. The model is shown to be compatible with all three release devices, highlighting easy adaptability of the model to virtually any release system and geometry. Further extension and applications of the model are envisioned.

Who uses flexible spending accounts: effects of employee characteristics and employer strategies.

PubMed

Feldman, R; Schultz, J

2001-07-01

Many large employers offer flexible spending accounts (FSAs) to shelter their employees' out-of-pocket medical expenses from taxes and thereby to encourage the purchase of health insurance policies with higher cost sharing. However, very little empirical research has examined the individual employee's decision to contribute to an FSA. To estimate equations for the probability that single employees with no dependents and employees with family health insurance coverage will contribute to FSAs, and the amounts contributed by those with FSAs. An observational study of randomly-selected employees in 15 Minnesota firms matched with information on the strategies those firms use to promote FSAs. Measures of FSA participation were regressed on expected health care spending, employee socio-demographics, and employer strategies. 779 single employees with no dependents and 679 employees with family coverage. Education beyond high school increases the probability that both types of subjects will contribute to FSAs, with marginal effects ranging from 16 to 48 percent. The FSA contribution rate for families doubles when the family's marginal federal income tax rate increases from 15 to 28 percent. Employer strategies to encourage participation are also effective in promoting FSAs. FSAs are used mainly by high-income and highly-educated workers. We question whether this is an equitable use of the income tax code.

Can a More User-Friendly Medicare Plan Finder Improve Consumers' Selection of Medicare Plans?

PubMed

Martino, Steven C; Kanouse, David E; Miranda, David J; Elliott, Marc N

2017-10-01

To evaluate the efficacy for consumers of two potential enhancements to the Medicare Plan Finder (MPF)-a simplified data display and a "quick links" home page designed to match the specific tasks that users seek to accomplish on the MPF. Participants (N = 641) were seniors and adult caregivers of seniors who were recruited from a national online panel. Participants browsed a simulated version of the MPF, made a hypothetical plan choice, and reported on their experience. Participants were randomly assigned to one of eight conditions in a fully factorial design: 2 home pages (quick links, current MPF home page) × 2 data displays (simplified, current MPF display) × 2 plan types (stand-alone prescription drug plan [PDP], Medicare Advantage plan with prescription drug coverage [MA-PD]). The quick links page resulted in more favorable perceptions of the MPF, improved users' understanding of the information, and increased the probability of choosing the objectively best plan. The simplified data display resulted in a more favorable evaluation of the website, better comprehension of the displayed information, and, among those choosing a PDP only, an increased probability of choosing the best plan. Design enhancements could markedly improve average website users' understanding, ability to use, and experience of using the MPF. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Early Statin Use and the Progression of Alzheimer Disease: A Total Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Lin, Feng-Cheng; Chuang, Yun-Shiuan; Hsieh, Hui-Min; Lee, Tzu-Chi; Chiu, Kuei-Fen; Liu, Ching-Kuan; Wu, Ming-Tsang

2015-11-01

The protective effect of statin on Alzheimer disease (AD) is still controversial, probably due to the debate about when to start the use of statin and the lack of any large-scale randomized evidence that actually supports the hypothesis. The purpose of this study was to examine the protective effect of early statin use on mild-to-moderate AD in the total Taiwanese population.This was a total population-based case-control study, using the total population of Taiwanese citizens seen in general medical practice; therefore, the findings can be applied to the general population. The study patients were those with newly diagnosed dementia (ICD-9 290.x) and prescribed any acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEI) from the Taiwan National Health Insurance dataset in 1997 to 2008. The newly diagnosed eligible mild-to-moderate AD patients were traced from the dates of their index dates, which was defined as the first day to receive any AChEI treatment, back to 1 year (exposure period) to categorize them into AD with early statin use and without early statin use. Early statin use was defined as patients using statin before AChEI treatment. Alzheimer disease patients with early statin use were those receiving any statin treatment during the exposure period. Then, we used propensity-score-matched strategy to match these 2 groups as 1:1. The matched study patients were followed-up from their index dates. The primary outcome was the discontinuation of AChEI treatment, indicating AD progression.There were 719 mild-to-moderate AD-paired patients with early statin use and without early statin use for analyses. Alzheimer disease progression was statistically lower in AD patients with early statin use than those without (P = 0.00054). After adjusting for other covariates, mild-to-moderate AD patients with early stain use exhibited a 0.85-risk (95% CI = 0.76-0.95, P = 0.0066) to have AD progression than those without.Early statin use was significantly associated with a reduction in AD progression in mild-to-moderate AD patients. The future randomized trial studies can confirm our findings.

Improving signal-to-noise ratios of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry peaks using noise frequency spectrum modification between two consecutive matched-filtering procedures.

PubMed

Wang, Shau-Chun; Huang, Chih-Min; Chiang, Shu-Min

2007-08-17

This paper reports a simple chemometric technique to alter the noise spectrum of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) chromatogram between two consecutive matched filter procedures to improve the peak signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio enhancement. This technique is to multiply one match-filtered LC-MS-MS chromatogram with another artificial chromatogram added with thermal noises prior to the second matched filter. Because matched filter cannot eliminate low-frequency components inherent in the flicker noises of spike-like sharp peaks randomly riding on LC-MS-MS chromatograms, efficient peak S/N ratio improvement cannot be accomplished using one-step or consecutive matched filter procedures to process LC-MS-MS chromatograms. In contrast, when the match-filtered LC-MS-MS chromatogram is conditioned with the multiplication alteration prior to the second matched filter, much better efficient ratio improvement is achieved. The noise frequency spectrum of match-filtered chromatogram, which originally contains only low-frequency components, is altered to span a boarder range with multiplication operation. When the frequency range of this modified noise spectrum shifts toward higher frequency regime, the second matched filter, working as a low-pass filter, is able to provide better filtering efficiency to obtain higher peak S/N ratios. Real LC-MS-MS chromatograms containing random spike-like peaks, of which peak S/N ratio improvement is less than four times with two consecutive matched filters typically, are remedied to accomplish much better ratio enhancement approximately 16-folds when the noise frequency spectrum is modified between two matched filters.

Uncertainty quantification of voice signal production mechanical model and experimental updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, E.; Soize, C.; Sampaio, R.

2013-11-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty quantification in a voice production mechanical model and update the probability density function corresponding to the tension parameter using the Bayes method and experimental data. Three parameters are considered uncertain in the voice production mechanical model used: the tension parameter, the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure. The tension parameter of the vocal folds is mainly responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. The three uncertain parameters are modeled by random variables. The probability density function related to the tension parameter is considered uniform and the probability density functions related to the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure are constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle. The output of the stochastic computational model is the random voice signal and the Monte Carlo method is used to solve the stochastic equations allowing realizations of the random voice signals to be generated. For each realization of the random voice signal, the corresponding realization of the random fundamental frequency is calculated and the prior pdf of this random fundamental frequency is then estimated. Experimental data are available for the fundamental frequency and the posterior probability density function of the random tension parameter is then estimated using the Bayes method. In addition, an application is performed considering a case with a pathology in the vocal folds. The strategy developed here is important mainly due to two things. The first one is related to the possibility of updating the probability density function of a parameter, the tension parameter of the vocal folds, which cannot be measured direct and the second one is related to the construction of the likelihood function. In general, it is predefined using the known pdf. Here, it is constructed in a new and different manner, using the own system considered.

I Remember You: Independence and the Binomial Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Douglas W.; Rockhill, Beverly

2006-01-01

We focus on the problem of ignoring statistical independence. A binomial experiment is used to determine whether judges could match, based on looks alone, dogs to their owners. The experimental design introduces dependencies such that the probability of a given judge correctly matching a dog and an owner changes from trial to trial. We show how…

Parametric down-conversion with nonideal and random quasi-phase-matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun-Yao; Lin, Chun; Liljestrand, Charlotte; Su, Wei-Min; Canalias, Carlota; Chuu, Chih-Sung

2016-05-01

Quasi-phase-matching (QPM) has enriched the capacity of parametric down-conversion (PDC) in generating biphotons for many fundamental tests and advanced applications. However, it is not clear how the nonidealities and randomness in the QPM grating of a parametric down-converter may affect the quantum properties of the biphotons. This paper intends to provide insights into the interplay between PDC and nonideal or random QPM structures. Using a periodically poled nonlinear crystal with short periodicity, we conduct experimental and theoretical studies of PDC subject to nonideal duty cycle and random errors in domain lengths. We report the observation of biphotons emerging through noncritical birefringent-phasematching, which is impossible to occur in PDC with an ideal QPM grating, and a biphoton spectrum determined by the details of nonidealities and randomness. We also observed QPM biphotons with a diminished strength. These features are both confirmed by our theory. Our work provides new perspectives for biphoton engineering with QPM.

Poisson statistics of PageRank probabilities of Twitter and Wikipedia networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frahm, Klaus M.; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

2014-04-01

We use the methods of quantum chaos and Random Matrix Theory for analysis of statistical fluctuations of PageRank probabilities in directed networks. In this approach the effective energy levels are given by a logarithm of PageRank probability at a given node. After the standard energy level unfolding procedure we establish that the nearest spacing distribution of PageRank probabilities is described by the Poisson law typical for integrable quantum systems. Our studies are done for the Twitter network and three networks of Wikipedia editions in English, French and German. We argue that due to absence of level repulsion the PageRank order of nearby nodes can be easily interchanged. The obtained Poisson law implies that the nearby PageRank probabilities fluctuate as random independent variables.

Egg size matching by an intraspecific brood parasite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lemons, Patrick R.; Sedinger, James S.

2011-01-01

Avian brood parasitism provides an ideal system with which to understand animal recognition and its affect on fitness. This phenomenon of laying eggs in the nests of other individuals has classically been framed from the perspective of interspecific brood parasitism and host recognition of parasitic eggs. Few examples exist of strategies adopted by intraspecific brood parasites to maximize success of parasitic eggs. Intraspecific brood parasitism within precocial birds can be a risky strategy in that hatch synchrony is essential to reproductive success. Given that egg size is positively correlated with incubation time, parasitic birds would benefit by recognizing and selecting hosts with a similar egg size. Intraspecific brood parasitism is an alternative reproductive strategy in black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), a colonial nesting goose with precocial young. Based on a randomization test, parasitic eggs in this study differed less in size from eggs in their host's nests than did random eggs placed in random nests. Parasitic eggs were remarkably similar in size to hosts’ eggs, differing by <2% of volume on average from host eggs, whereas randomly paired eggs in random nests differed by nearly 8%. The precision with which parasitic brant match the egg size of hosts in our study supports our hypothesis that brant match egg size of hosts, thereby maximizing hatching success of their parasitic eggs.

Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.

PubMed

Kuznetsova, Olga M

2015-12-30

The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new era of prospective real-world safety evaluation primary report of XIENCE V USA (XIENCE V Everolimus Eluting Coronary Stent System condition-of-approval post-market study).

PubMed

Krucoff, Mitchell W; Rutledge, David R; Gruberg, Luis; Jonnavithula, Lalitha; Katopodis, John N; Lombardi, William; Mao, Vivian W; Sharma, Samin K; Simonton, Charles A; Tamboli, Hoshedar P; Wang, Jin; Wilburn, Olivia; Zhao, Weiying; Sudhir, Krishnankutty; Hermiller, James B

2011-12-01

The XIENCE V USA (XIENCE V Everolimus Eluting Coronary Stent System Condition-of-Approval Post-Market study) sought to: 1) evaluate the safety of everolimus-eluting coronary stent systems (EECSS) in a contemporary cohort of real-world subjects; and 2) prospectively test the quality of event reporting with analysis of matched patients from the randomized SPIRIT IV (Clinical Evaluation of the XIENCE V Everolimus Eluting Coronary Stent System in the Treatment of Subjects With de Novo Native Coronary Artery Lesions) trial. Randomized trials have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of EECSS in selected "standard-risk" patients. The XIENCE V USA trial was a prospective, multicenter, single-arm study in unselected patients. The primary endpoint was Academic Research Consortium (ARC)-defined definite and probable stent thrombosis (ST); the co-primary endpoint was the composite of cardiac death and myocardial infarction at 1 year. Secondary analyses included: 1) stratification by standard-risk and extended-risk cohorts; and 2) late ST after dual antiplatelet therapy interruption. Of 5,054 participants (1,875 standard-risk; 3,179 extended-risk), 4,958 (98.1%) reached 1-year follow-up. The rate of ARC-defined definite and probable ST was 0.84% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.60% to 1.14%) in the overall population and 0.33% (95% CI: 0.12% to 10.72%) and 1.14% (95% CI: 0.80% to 11.58%) in the standard-risk and extended-risk cohorts, respectively. No late ST was observed after dual antiplatelet therapy interruption in either cohort after 6 months. The composite rate of cardiac death and ARC-defined myocardial infarction was 6.5% (95% CI: 5.79% to 17.17%) in the overall population, 3.8% (95% CI: 2.98% to 14.78%) in the standard-risk cohort, and 8.0% (95% CI: 7.09% to 19.02%) in the extended-risk cohort. This study comprehensively reports ST rates for EECSS in a contemporary real-world population. The absence of ST after dual antiplatelet therapy interruption beyond 6 months in standard-risk and high-risk patients is notable. Consistent safety outcomes between matched standard-risk cohorts from the XIENCE V USA study and the SPIRIT IV randomized trial suggest that this study affords a reliable benchmark for understanding the safety of EECSS in the context of real-world clinical practice. (XIENCE V Everolimus Eluting Coronary Stent System [EECSS] USA Post-Approval Study; NCT00676520). Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factorization of Observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliaš, Peter; Frič, Roman

2017-12-01

Categorical approach to probability leads to better understanding of basic notions and constructions in generalized (fuzzy, operational, quantum) probability, where observables—dual notions to generalized random variables (statistical maps)—play a major role. First, to avoid inconsistencies, we introduce three categories L, S, and P, the objects and morphisms of which correspond to basic notions of fuzzy probability theory and operational probability theory, and describe their relationships. To illustrate the advantages of categorical approach, we show that two categorical constructions involving observables (related to the representation of generalized random variables via products, or smearing of sharp observables, respectively) can be described as factorizing a morphism into composition of two morphisms having desired properties. We close with a remark concerning products.

SETI and SEH (Statistical Equation for Habitables)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maccone, Claudio

2011-01-01

The statistics of habitable planets may be based on a set of ten (and possibly more) astrobiological requirements first pointed out by Stephen H. Dole in his book "Habitable planets for man" (1964). In this paper, we first provide the statistical generalization of the original and by now too simplistic Dole equation. In other words, a product of ten positive numbers is now turned into the product of ten positive random variables. This we call the SEH, an acronym standing for "Statistical Equation for Habitables". The mathematical structure of the SEH is then derived. The proof is based on the central limit theorem (CLT) of Statistics. In loose terms, the CLT states that the sum of any number of independent random variables, each of which may be arbitrarily distributed, approaches a Gaussian (i.e. normal) random variable. This is called the Lyapunov form of the CLT, or the Lindeberg form of the CLT, depending on the mathematical constraints assumed on the third moments of the various probability distributions. In conclusion, we show that The new random variable NHab, yielding the number of habitables (i.e. habitable planets) in the Galaxy, follows the lognormal distribution. By construction, the mean value of this lognormal distribution is the total number of habitable planets as given by the statistical Dole equation. But now we also derive the standard deviation, the mode, the median and all the moments of this new lognormal NHab random variable. The ten (or more) astrobiological factors are now positive random variables. The probability distribution of each random variable may be arbitrary. The CLT in the so-called Lyapunov or Lindeberg forms (that both do not assume the factors to be identically distributed) allows for that. In other words, the CLT "translates" into our SEH by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution for each factor. This is both astrobiologically realistic and useful for any further investigations. An application of our SEH then follows. The (average) distancebetween any two nearby habitable planets in the Galaxy may be shown to be inversely proportional to the cubic root of NHab. Then, in our approach, this distance becomes a new random variable. We derive the relevant probability density function, apparently previously unknown and dubbed "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies in 2008. Data Enrichment Principle. It should be noticed that ANY positive number of random variables in the SEH is compatible with the CLT. So, our generalization allows for many more factors to be added in the future as long as more refined scientific knowledge about each factor will be known to the scientists. This capability to make room for more future factors in the SEH we call the "Data Enrichment Principle", and we regard it as the key to more profound future results in the fields of Astrobiology and SETI. A practical example is then given of how our SEH works numerically. We work out in detail the case where each of the ten random variables is uniformly distributed around its own mean value as given by Dole back in 1964 and has an assumed standard deviation of 10%. The conclusion is that the average number of habitable planets in the Galaxy should be around 100 million±200 million, and the average distance in between any couple of nearby habitable planets should be about 88 light years±40 light years. Finally, we match our SEH results against the results of the Statistical Drake Equation that we introduced in our 2008 IAC presentation. As expected, the number of currently communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy turns out to be much smaller than the number of habitable planets (about 10,000 against 100 million, i.e. one ET civilization out of 10,000 habitable planets). And the average distance between any two nearby habitable planets turns out to be much smaller than the average distance between any two neighboring ET civilizations: 88 light years vs. 2000 light years, respectively. This means an ET average distance about 20 times higher than the average distance between any couple of adjacent habitable planets.

Matched metal die compression molded structural random fiber sheet molding compound flywheel

DOEpatents

Kulkarni, Satish V.; Christensen, Richard M.; Toland, Richard H.

1985-01-01

A flywheel (10) is described that is useful for energy storage in a hybrid vehicle automotive power system or in some stationary applications. The flywheel (10) has a body of essentially planar isotropic high strength structural random fiber sheet molding compound (SMC-R). The flywheel (10) may be economically produced by a matched metal die compression molding process. The flywheel (10) makes energy intensive efficient use of a fiber/resin composite while having a shape designed by theory assuming planar isotropy.

Matched metal die compression molded structural random fiber sheet molding compound flywheel. [Patent application

DOEpatents

Kulkarni, S.V.; Christensen, R.M.; Toland, R.H.

1980-09-24

A flywheel is described that is useful for energy storage in a hybrid vehicle automotive power system or in some stationary applications. The flywheel has a body of essentially planar isotropic high strength structural random fiber sheet molding compound (SMC-R). The flywheel may be economically produced by a matched metal die compression molding process. The flywheel makes energy intensive efficient use of a fiber/resin composite while having a shape designed by theory assuming planar isotropy.

Phase Transition for the Large-Dimensional Contact Process with Random Recovery Rates on Open Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Xiaofeng

2016-12-01

In this paper we are concerned with the contact process with random recovery rates on open clusters of bond percolation on Z^d. Let ξ be a random variable such that P(ξ ≥ 1)=1, which ensures E1/ξ <+∞, then we assign i. i. d. copies of ξ on the vertices as the random recovery rates. Assuming that each edge is open with probability p and the infection can only spread through the open edges, then we obtain that limsup _{d→ +∞}λ _d≤ λ _c=1/pE{1}/{ξ}, where λ _d is the critical value of the process on Z^d, i.e., the maximum of the infection rates with which the infection dies out with probability one when only the origin is infected at t=0. To prove the above main result, we show that the following phase transition occurs. Assuming that lceil log drceil vertices are infected at t=0, where these vertices can be located anywhere, then when the infection rate λ >λ _c, the process survives with high probability as d→ +∞ while when λ <λ _c, the process dies out at time O(log d) with high probability.

Modification Site Localization in Peptides.

PubMed

Chalkley, Robert J

2016-01-01

There are a large number of search engines designed to take mass spectrometry fragmentation spectra and match them to peptides from proteins in a database. These peptides could be unmodified, but they could also bear modifications that were added biologically or during sample preparation. As a measure of reliability for the peptide identification, software normally calculates how likely a given quality of match could have been achieved at random, most commonly through the use of target-decoy database searching (Elias and Gygi, Nat Methods 4(3): 207-214, 2007). Matching the correct peptide but with the wrong modification localization is not a random match, so results with this error will normally still be assessed as reliable identifications by the search engine. Hence, an extra step is required to determine site localization reliability, and the software approaches to measure this are the subject of this part of the chapter.

Zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetya, E. B.; Utari; Purnama, B.

2017-11-01

This paper discussed about zero field reversal probability in thermally assisted magnetization reversal (TAMR). Appearance of reversal probability in zero field investigated through micromagnetic simulation by solving stochastic Landau-Lifshitz-Gibert (LLG). The perpendicularly anisotropy magnetic dot of 50×50×20 nm3 is considered as single cell magnetic storage of magnetic random acces memory (MRAM). Thermally assisted magnetization reversal was performed by cooling writing process from near/almost Curie point to room temperature on 20 times runs for different randomly magnetized state. The results show that the probability reversal under zero magnetic field decreased with the increase of the energy barrier. The zero-field probability switching of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T and the reversal probability become zero noted at energy barrier of 2348 k B T. The higest zero-field switching probability of 55% attained for energy barrier of 60 k B T which corespond to magnetif field of 150 Oe for switching.

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

Why caution is recommended with post-hoc individual patient matching for estimation of treatment effect in parallel-group randomized controlled trials: the case of acute stroke trials.

PubMed

Jafari, Nahid; Hearne, John; Churilov, Leonid

2013-11-10

A post-hoc individual patient matching procedure was recently proposed within the context of parallel group randomized clinical trials (RCTs) as a method for estimating treatment effect. In this paper, we consider a post-hoc individual patient matching problem within a parallel group RCT as a multi-objective decision-making problem focussing on the trade-off between the quality of individual matches and the overall percentage of matching. Using acute stroke trials as a context, we utilize exact optimization and simulation techniques to investigate a complex relationship between the overall percentage of individual post-hoc matching, the size of the respective RCT, and the quality of matching on variables highly prognostic for a good functional outcome after stroke, as well as the dispersion in these variables. It is empirically confirmed that a high percentage of individual post-hoc matching can only be achieved when the differences in prognostic baseline variables between individually matched subjects within the same pair are sufficiently large and that the unmatched subjects are qualitatively different to the matched ones. It is concluded that the post-hoc individual matching as a technique for treatment effect estimation in parallel-group RCTs should be exercised with caution because of its propensity to introduce significant bias and reduce validity. If used with appropriate caution and thorough evaluation, this approach can complement other viable alternative approaches for estimating the treatment effect. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

Theoretical size distribution of fossil taxa: analysis of a null model

PubMed Central

Reed, William J; Hughes, Barry D

2007-01-01

Background This article deals with the theoretical size distribution (of number of sub-taxa) of a fossil taxon arising from a simple null model of macroevolution. Model New species arise through speciations occurring independently and at random at a fixed probability rate, while extinctions either occur independently and at random (background extinctions) or cataclysmically. In addition new genera are assumed to arise through speciations of a very radical nature, again assumed to occur independently and at random at a fixed probability rate. Conclusion The size distributions of the pioneering genus (following a cataclysm) and of derived genera are determined. Also the distribution of the number of genera is considered along with a comparison of the probability of a monospecific genus with that of a monogeneric family. PMID:17376249

Blackmail propagation on small-world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Zhi-Gang; Jian-Ping Sang; Zou, Xian-Wu; Tan, Zhi-Jie; Jin, Zhun-Zhi

2005-06-01

The dynamics of the blackmail propagation model based on small-world networks is investigated. It is found that for a given transmitting probability λ the dynamical behavior of blackmail propagation transits from linear growth type to logistical growth one with the network randomness p increases. The transition takes place at the critical network randomness pc=1/N, where N is the total number of nodes in the network. For a given network randomness p the dynamical behavior of blackmail propagation transits from exponential decrease type to logistical growth one with the transmitting probability λ increases. The transition occurs at the critical transmitting probability λc=1/, where is the average number of the nearest neighbors. The present work will be useful for understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Quantum probabilistic logic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balu, Radhakrishnan

2015-05-01

We describe a quantum mechanics based logic programming language that supports Horn clauses, random variables, and covariance matrices to express and solve problems in probabilistic logic. The Horn clauses of the language wrap random variables, including infinite valued, to express probability distributions and statistical correlations, a powerful feature to capture relationship between distributions that are not independent. The expressive power of the language is based on a mechanism to implement statistical ensembles and to solve the underlying SAT instances using quantum mechanical machinery. We exploit the fact that classical random variables have quantum decompositions to build the Horn clauses. We establish the semantics of the language in a rigorous fashion by considering an existing probabilistic logic language called PRISM with classical probability measures defined on the Herbrand base and extending it to the quantum context. In the classical case H-interpretations form the sample space and probability measures defined on them lead to consistent definition of probabilities for well formed formulae. In the quantum counterpart, we define probability amplitudes on Hinterpretations facilitating the model generations and verifications via quantum mechanical superpositions and entanglements. We cast the well formed formulae of the language as quantum mechanical observables thus providing an elegant interpretation for their probabilities. We discuss several examples to combine statistical ensembles and predicates of first order logic to reason with situations involving uncertainty.

Multipartite nonlocality and random measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Rosier, Anna; Gruca, Jacek; Parisio, Fernando; Vértesi, Tamás; Laskowski, Wiesław

2017-07-01

We present an exhaustive numerical analysis of violations of local realism by families of multipartite quantum states. As an indicator of nonclassicality we employ the probability of violation for randomly sampled observables. Surprisingly, it rapidly increases with the number of parties or settings and even for relatively small values local realism is violated for almost all observables. We have observed this effect to be typical in the sense that it emerged for all investigated states including some with randomly drawn coefficients. We also present the probability of violation as a witness of genuine multipartite entanglement.

Spatial filtering precedes motion detection.

PubMed

Morgan, M J

1992-01-23

When we perceive motion on a television or cinema screen, there must be some process that allows us to track moving objects over time: if not, the result would be a conflicting mass of motion signals in all directions. A possible mechanism, suggested by studies of motion displacement in spatially random patterns, is that low-level motion detectors have a limited spatial range, which ensures that they tend to be stimulated over time by the same object. This model predicts that the direction of displacement of random patterns cannot be detected reliably above a critical absolute displacement value (Dmax) that is independent of the size or density of elements in the display. It has been inferred that Dmax is a measure of the size of motion detectors in the visual pathway. Other studies, however, have shown that Dmax increases with element size, in which case the most likely interpretation is that Dmax depends on the probability of false matches between pattern elements following a displacement. These conflicting accounts are reconciled here by showing that Dmax is indeed determined by the spacing between the elements in the pattern, but only after fine detail has been removed by a physiological prefiltering stage: the filter required to explain the data has a similar size to the receptive field of neurons in the primate magnocellular pathway. The model explains why Dmax can be increased by removing high spatial frequencies from random patterns, and simplifies our view of early motion detection.

Long-term outcome of patients with newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia: a randomized comparison of stem cell transplantation with drug treatment

PubMed Central

Gratwohl, A; Pfirrmann, M; Zander, A; Kröger, N; Beelen, D; Novotny, J; Nerl, C; Scheid, C; Spiekermann, K; Mayer, J; Sayer, H G; Falge, C; Bunjes, D; Döhner, H; Ganser, A; Schmidt-Wolf, I; Schwerdtfeger, R; Baurmann, H; Kuse, R; Schmitz, N; Wehmeier, A; Th Fischer, J; Ho, A D; Wilhelm, M; Goebeler, M-E; Lindemann, H W; Bormann, M; Hertenstein, B; Schlimok, G; Baerlocher, G M; Aul, C; Pfreundschuh, M; Fabian, M; Staib, P; Edinger, M; Schatz, M; Fauser, A; Arnold, R; Kindler, T; Wulf, G; Rosselet, A; Hellmann, A; Schäfer, E; Prümmer, O; Schenk, M; Hasford, J; Heimpel, H; Hossfeld, D K; Kolb, H-J; Büsche, G; Haferlach, C; Schnittger, S; Müller, M C; Reiter, A; Berger, U; Saußele, S; Hochhaus, A; Hehlmann, R

2016-01-01

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors represent today's treatment of choice in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is regarded as salvage therapy. This prospective randomized CML-study IIIA recruited 669 patients with newly diagnosed CML between July 1997 and January 2004 from 143 centers. Of these, 427 patients were considered eligible for HSCT and were randomized by availability of a matched family donor between primary HSCT (group A; N=166 patients) and best available drug treatment (group B; N=261). Primary end point was long-term survival. Survival probabilities were not different between groups A and B (10-year survival: 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69–0.82) vs 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61–0.76)), but influenced by disease and transplant risk. Patients with a low transplant risk showed superior survival compared with patients with high- (P<0.001) and non-high-risk disease (P=0.047) in group B; after entering blast crisis, survival was not different with or without HSCT. Significantly more patients in group A were in molecular remission (56% vs 39% P=0.005) and free of drug treatment (56% vs 6% P<0.001). Differences in symptoms and Karnofsky score were not significant. In the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, HSCT remains a valid option when both disease and transplant risk are considered. PMID:26464170

δ-exceedance records and random adaptive walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Su-Chan; Krug, Joachim

2016-08-01

We study a modified record process where the kth record in a series of independent and identically distributed random variables is defined recursively through the condition {Y}k\\gt {Y}k-1-{δ }k-1 with a deterministic sequence {δ }k\\gt 0 called the handicap. For constant {δ }k\\equiv δ and exponentially distributed random variables it has been shown in previous work that the process displays a phase transition as a function of δ between a normal phase where the mean record value increases indefinitely and a stationary phase where the mean record value remains bounded and a finite fraction of all entries are records (Park et al 2015 Phys. Rev. E 91 042707). Here we explore the behavior for general probability distributions and decreasing and increasing sequences {δ }k, focusing in particular on the case when {δ }k matches the typical spacing between subsequent records in the underlying simple record process without handicap. We find that a continuous phase transition occurs only in the exponential case, but a novel kind of first order transition emerges when {δ }k is increasing. The problem is partly motivated by the dynamics of evolutionary adaptation in biological fitness landscapes, where {δ }k corresponds to the change of the deterministic fitness component after k mutational steps. The results for the record process are used to compute the mean number of steps that a population performs in such a landscape before being trapped at a local fitness maximum.

Generation of pseudo-random numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L. W.; Rheinfurth, M. H.

1982-01-01

Practical methods for generating acceptable random numbers from a variety of probability distributions which are frequently encountered in engineering applications are described. The speed, accuracy, and guarantee of statistical randomness of the various methods are discussed.

Recruiting Filipino Immigrants in a Randomized Controlled Trial Promoting Enrollment in an Evidence-Based Parenting Intervention.

PubMed

Javier, Joyce R; Reyes, Angela; Coffey, Dean M; Schrager, Sheree M; Samson, Allan; Palinkas, Lawrence; Kipke, Michele D; Miranda, Jeanne

2018-05-17

Filipinos, the second largest Asian subgroup in the U.S., experience significant youth behavioral health disparities but remain under-represented in health research. We describe lessons learned from using the Matching Model of Recruitment to recruit 215 Filipinos to participate in a large, randomized controlled trial of a culturally tailored video aimed at increasing enrollment in the Incredible Years® Parent Program. We recruited participants from schools, churches, clinics, community events, and other community-based locations. Facilitators of participation included: partnership with local community groups, conducting research in familiar settings, building on existing social networks, and matching perspectives of community members and researchers. Findings suggest recruitment success occurs when there is a match between goals of Filipino parents, grandparents and the research community. Understanding the perspectives of ethnic minority communities and effectively communicating goals of research studies are critical to successful recruitment of hard-to-reach immigrant populations in randomized controlled trials.

What's Missing in Teaching Probability and Statistics: Building Cognitive Schema for Understanding Random Phenomena

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuzmak, Sylvia

2016-01-01

Teaching probability and statistics is more than teaching the mathematics itself. Historically, the mathematics of probability and statistics was first developed through analyzing games of chance such as the rolling of dice. This article makes the case that the understanding of probability and statistics is dependent upon building a…

A unified approach for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lü, Hui; Shangguan, Wen-Bin; Yu, Dejie

2017-09-01

Automotive brake systems are always subjected to various types of uncertainties and two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties may exist in the brakes. In this paper, a unified approach is proposed for squeal instability analysis of disc brakes with two types of random-fuzzy uncertainties. In the proposed approach, two uncertainty analysis models with mixed variables are introduced to model the random-fuzzy uncertainties. The first one is the random and fuzzy model, in which random variables and fuzzy variables exist simultaneously and independently. The second one is the fuzzy random model, in which uncertain parameters are all treated as random variables while their distribution parameters are expressed as fuzzy numbers. Firstly, the fuzziness is discretized by using α-cut technique and the two uncertainty analysis models are simplified into random-interval models. Afterwards, by temporarily neglecting interval uncertainties, the random-interval models are degraded into random models, in which the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities of system stability functions are calculated. And then, by reconsidering the interval uncertainties, the bounds of the expectations, variances, reliability indexes and reliability probabilities are computed based on Taylor series expansion. Finally, by recomposing the analysis results at each α-cut level, the fuzzy reliability indexes and probabilities can be obtained, by which the brake squeal instability can be evaluated. The proposed approach gives a general framework to deal with both types of random-fuzzy uncertainties that may exist in the brakes and its effectiveness is demonstrated by numerical examples. It will be a valuable supplement to the systematic study of brake squeal considering uncertainty.

Asymptotic properties of a bold random walk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Maurizio

2014-08-01

In a recent paper we proposed a non-Markovian random walk model with memory of the maximum distance ever reached from the starting point (home). The behavior of the walker is different from the simple symmetric random walk only when she is at this maximum distance, where, having the choice to move either farther or closer, she decides with different probabilities. If the probability of a forward step is higher than the probability of a backward step, the walker is bold and her behavior turns out to be superdiffusive; otherwise she is timorous and her behavior turns out to be subdiffusive. The scaling behavior varies continuously from subdiffusive (timorous) to superdiffusive (bold) according to a single parameter γ ∈R. We investigate here the asymptotic properties of the bold case in the nonballistic region γ ∈[0,1/2], a problem which was left partially unsolved previously. The exact results proved in this paper require new probabilistic tools which rely on the construction of appropriate martingales of the random walk and its hitting times.

Pólya number and first return of bursty random walk: Rigorous solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, J.; Xu, X. P.

2012-03-01

The recurrence properties of random walks can be characterized by Pólya number, i.e., the probability that the walker has returned to the origin at least once. In this paper, we investigate Pólya number and first return for bursty random walk on a line, in which the walk has different step size and moving probabilities. Using the concept of the Catalan number, we obtain exact results for first return probability, the average first return time and Pólya number for the first time. We show that Pólya number displays two different functional behavior when the walk deviates from the recurrent point. By utilizing the Lagrange inversion formula, we interpret our findings by transferring Pólya number to the closed-form solutions of an inverse function. We also calculate Pólya number using another approach, which corroborates our results and conclusions. Finally, we consider the recurrence properties and Pólya number of two variations of the bursty random walk model.

Sampling Methods in Cardiovascular Nursing Research: An Overview.

PubMed

Kandola, Damanpreet; Banner, Davina; O'Keefe-McCarthy, Sheila; Jassal, Debbie

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular nursing research covers a wide array of topics from health services to psychosocial patient experiences. The selection of specific participant samples is an important part of the research design and process. The sampling strategy employed is of utmost importance to ensure that a representative sample of participants is chosen. There are two main categories of sampling methods: probability and non-probability. Probability sampling is the random selection of elements from the population, where each element of the population has an equal and independent chance of being included in the sample. There are five main types of probability sampling including simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and multi-stage sampling. Non-probability sampling methods are those in which elements are chosen through non-random methods for inclusion into the research study and include convenience sampling, purposive sampling, and snowball sampling. Each approach offers distinct advantages and disadvantages and must be considered critically. In this research column, we provide an introduction to these key sampling techniques and draw on examples from the cardiovascular research. Understanding the differences in sampling techniques may aid nurses in effective appraisal of research literature and provide a reference pointfor nurses who engage in cardiovascular research.

Small violations of Bell inequalities for multipartite pure random states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumond, Raphael C.; Duarte, Cristhiano; Oliveira, Roberto I.

2018-05-01

For any finite number of parts, measurements, and outcomes in a Bell scenario, we estimate the probability of random N-qudit pure states to substantially violate any Bell inequality with uniformly bounded coefficients. We prove that under some conditions on the local dimension, the probability to find any significant amount of violation goes to zero exponentially fast as the number of parts goes to infinity. In addition, we also prove that if the number of parts is at least 3, this probability also goes to zero as the local Hilbert space dimension goes to infinity.

Cross Matching as Strategy to Find Radio Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christian, Tiffany; Kimball, Amy

2018-01-01

Using cross-matching between the FIRST (20cm) and GPS1 (optical) catalogs, we identified possible radio star candidates. This is an extension of earlier work by Kimball et al. (2009), who sought to identify radiostar candidates by cross-matching the FIRST (radio)and SDSS (optical) catalogs, but did not include the consideration of stellar proper motions. We used proper motions from GPS1 to match with FIRST radio sources; the region of sky where they overlap contains ~900,000 FIRST sources and several million GPS1 sources. We used WISE near-infrared and PanSTARRS optical information to identify matches that have stellar colors. Our selection constraints identified 6 stars (spectroscopically confirmed) as radio star candidates. They are faint in the radio (<1 mJy) indicating we may be searching at the limits of the radio survey. Other candidates had no spectral confirmation or object type identification in SIMBAD, which would make them ideal for follow up radio observations. However, random analysis indicated that many other possible candidates were random associations, which may also be true for these 6 stars.

Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

PubMed

Tygert, Mark

2010-09-21

We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

Recognizing human actions by learning and matching shape-motion prototype trees.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhuolin; Lin, Zhe; Davis, Larry S

2012-03-01

A shape-motion prototype-based approach is introduced for action recognition. The approach represents an action as a sequence of prototypes for efficient and flexible action matching in long video sequences. During training, an action prototype tree is learned in a joint shape and motion space via hierarchical K-means clustering and each training sequence is represented as a labeled prototype sequence; then a look-up table of prototype-to-prototype distances is generated. During testing, based on a joint probability model of the actor location and action prototype, the actor is tracked while a frame-to-prototype correspondence is established by maximizing the joint probability, which is efficiently performed by searching the learned prototype tree; then actions are recognized using dynamic prototype sequence matching. Distance measures used for sequence matching are rapidly obtained by look-up table indexing, which is an order of magnitude faster than brute-force computation of frame-to-frame distances. Our approach enables robust action matching in challenging situations (such as moving cameras, dynamic backgrounds) and allows automatic alignment of action sequences. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves recognition rates of 92.86 percent on a large gesture data set (with dynamic backgrounds), 100 percent on the Weizmann action data set, 95.77 percent on the KTH action data set, 88 percent on the UCF sports data set, and 87.27 percent on the CMU action data set.

Detection of mastitis in dairy cattle by use of mixture models for repeated somatic cell scores: a Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Jensen, J; Madsen, P; Gianola, D; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2003-11-01

The distribution of somatic cell scores could be regarded as a mixture of at least two components depending on a cow's udder health status. A heteroscedastic two-component Bayesian normal mixture model with random effects was developed and implemented via Gibbs sampling. The model was evaluated using datasets consisting of simulated somatic cell score records. Somatic cell score was simulated as a mixture representing two alternative udder health statuses ("healthy" or "diseased"). Animals were assigned randomly to the two components according to the probability of group membership (Pm). Random effects (additive genetic and permanent environment), when included, had identical distributions across mixture components. Posterior probabilities of putative mastitis were estimated for all observations, and model adequacy was evaluated using measures of sensitivity, specificity, and posterior probability of misclassification. Fitting different residual variances in the two mixture components caused some bias in estimation of parameters. When the components were difficult to disentangle, so were their residual variances, causing bias in estimation of Pm and of location parameters of the two underlying distributions. When all variance components were identical across mixture components, the mixture model analyses returned parameter estimates essentially without bias and with a high degree of precision. Including random effects in the model increased the probability of correct classification substantially. No sizable differences in probability of correct classification were found between models in which a single cow effect (ignoring relationships) was fitted and models where this effect was split into genetic and permanent environmental components, utilizing relationship information. When genetic and permanent environmental effects were fitted, the between-replicate variance of estimates of posterior means was smaller because the model accounted for random genetic drift.

Wolf Attack Probability: A Theoretical Security Measure in Biometric Authentication Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Une, Masashi; Otsuka, Akira; Imai, Hideki

This paper will propose a wolf attack probability (WAP) as a new measure for evaluating security of biometric authentication systems. The wolf attack is an attempt to impersonate a victim by feeding “wolves” into the system to be attacked. The “wolf” means an input value which can be falsely accepted as a match with multiple templates. WAP is defined as a maximum success probability of the wolf attack with one wolf sample. In this paper, we give a rigorous definition of the new security measure which gives strength estimation of an individual biometric authentication system against impersonation attacks. We show that if one reestimates using our WAP measure, a typical fingerprint algorithm turns out to be much weaker than theoretically estimated by Ratha et al. Moreover, we apply the wolf attack to a finger-vein-pattern based algorithm. Surprisingly, we show that there exists an extremely strong wolf which falsely matches all templates for any threshold value.

Work Disability among Women: The Role of Divorce in a Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Tamborini, Christopher R; Reznik, Gayle L; Couch, Kenneth A

2016-03-01

We assess how divorce through midlife affects the subsequent probability of work-limiting health among U.S. women. Using retrospective marital and work disability histories from the Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to Social Security earnings records, we identify women whose first marriage dissolved between 1975 and 1984 (n = 1,214) and women who remain continuously married (n = 3,394). Probit and propensity score matching models examine the cumulative probability of a work disability over a 20-year follow-up period. We find that divorce is associated with a significantly higher cumulative probability of a work disability, controlling for a range of factors. This association is strongest among divorced women who do not remarry. No consistent relationships are observed among divorced women who remarry and remained married. We find that economic hardship, work history, and selection into divorce influence, but do not substantially alter, the lasting impact of divorce on work-limiting health. © American Sociological Association 2016.

Test-retest reliability of the Middlesex Assessment of Mental State (MEAMS): a preliminary investigation in people with probable dementia.

PubMed

Powell, T; Brooker, D J; Papadopolous, A

1993-05-01

Relative and absolute test-retest reliability of the MEAMS was examined in 12 subjects with probable dementia and 12 matched controls. Relative reliability was good. Measures of absolute reliability showed scores changing by up to 3 points over an interval of a week. A version effect was found to be in evidence.

Knot probabilities in random diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt

2016-10-01

We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

PubMed

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jenny

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

Data-Driven Lead-Acid Battery Prognostics Using Random Survival Forests

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-02

Kogalur, Blackstone , & Lauer, 2008; Ishwaran & Kogalur, 2010). Random survival forest is a sur- vival analysis extension of Random Forests (Breiman, 2001...Statistics & probability letters, 80(13), 1056–1064. Ishwaran, H., Kogalur, U. B., Blackstone , E. H., & Lauer, M. S. (2008). Random survival forests. The

A new u-statistic with superior design sensitivity in matched observational studies.

PubMed

Rosenbaum, Paul R

2011-09-01

In an observational or nonrandomized study of treatment effects, a sensitivity analysis indicates the magnitude of bias from unmeasured covariates that would need to be present to alter the conclusions of a naïve analysis that presumes adjustments for observed covariates suffice to remove all bias. The power of sensitivity analysis is the probability that it will reject a false hypothesis about treatment effects allowing for a departure from random assignment of a specified magnitude; in particular, if this specified magnitude is "no departure" then this is the same as the power of a randomization test in a randomized experiment. A new family of u-statistics is proposed that includes Wilcoxon's signed rank statistic but also includes other statistics with substantially higher power when a sensitivity analysis is performed in an observational study. Wilcoxon's statistic has high power to detect small effects in large randomized experiments-that is, it often has good Pitman efficiency-but small effects are invariably sensitive to small unobserved biases. Members of this family of u-statistics that emphasize medium to large effects can have substantially higher power in a sensitivity analysis. For example, in one situation with 250 pair differences that are Normal with expectation 1/2 and variance 1, the power of a sensitivity analysis that uses Wilcoxon's statistic is 0.08 while the power of another member of the family of u-statistics is 0.66. The topic is examined by performing a sensitivity analysis in three observational studies, using an asymptotic measure called the design sensitivity, and by simulating power in finite samples. The three examples are drawn from epidemiology, clinical medicine, and genetic toxicology. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

Hebbian Learning in a Random Network Captures Selectivity Properties of the Prefrontal Cortex.

PubMed

Lindsay, Grace W; Rigotti, Mattia; Warden, Melissa R; Miller, Earl K; Fusi, Stefano

2017-11-08

Complex cognitive behaviors, such as context-switching and rule-following, are thought to be supported by the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Neural activity in the PFC must thus be specialized to specific tasks while retaining flexibility. Nonlinear "mixed" selectivity is an important neurophysiological trait for enabling complex and context-dependent behaviors. Here we investigate (1) the extent to which the PFC exhibits computationally relevant properties, such as mixed selectivity, and (2) how such properties could arise via circuit mechanisms. We show that PFC cells recorded from male and female rhesus macaques during a complex task show a moderate level of specialization and structure that is not replicated by a model wherein cells receive random feedforward inputs. While random connectivity can be effective at generating mixed selectivity, the data show significantly more mixed selectivity than predicted by a model with otherwise matched parameters. A simple Hebbian learning rule applied to the random connectivity, however, increases mixed selectivity and enables the model to match the data more accurately. To explain how learning achieves this, we provide analysis along with a clear geometric interpretation of the impact of learning on selectivity. After learning, the model also matches the data on measures of noise, response density, clustering, and the distribution of selectivities. Of two styles of Hebbian learning tested, the simpler and more biologically plausible option better matches the data. These modeling results provide clues about how neural properties important for cognition can arise in a circuit and make clear experimental predictions regarding how various measures of selectivity would evolve during animal training. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The prefrontal cortex is a brain region believed to support the ability of animals to engage in complex behavior. How neurons in this area respond to stimuli-and in particular, to combinations of stimuli ("mixed selectivity")-is a topic of interest. Even though models with random feedforward connectivity are capable of creating computationally relevant mixed selectivity, such a model does not match the levels of mixed selectivity seen in the data analyzed in this study. Adding simple Hebbian learning to the model increases mixed selectivity to the correct level and makes the model match the data on several other relevant measures. This study thus offers predictions on how mixed selectivity and other properties evolve with training. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/3711021-16$15.00/0.

Hebbian Learning in a Random Network Captures Selectivity Properties of the Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Lindsay, Grace W.

2017-01-01

Complex cognitive behaviors, such as context-switching and rule-following, are thought to be supported by the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Neural activity in the PFC must thus be specialized to specific tasks while retaining flexibility. Nonlinear “mixed” selectivity is an important neurophysiological trait for enabling complex and context-dependent behaviors. Here we investigate (1) the extent to which the PFC exhibits computationally relevant properties, such as mixed selectivity, and (2) how such properties could arise via circuit mechanisms. We show that PFC cells recorded from male and female rhesus macaques during a complex task show a moderate level of specialization and structure that is not replicated by a model wherein cells receive random feedforward inputs. While random connectivity can be effective at generating mixed selectivity, the data show significantly more mixed selectivity than predicted by a model with otherwise matched parameters. A simple Hebbian learning rule applied to the random connectivity, however, increases mixed selectivity and enables the model to match the data more accurately. To explain how learning achieves this, we provide analysis along with a clear geometric interpretation of the impact of learning on selectivity. After learning, the model also matches the data on measures of noise, response density, clustering, and the distribution of selectivities. Of two styles of Hebbian learning tested, the simpler and more biologically plausible option better matches the data. These modeling results provide clues about how neural properties important for cognition can arise in a circuit and make clear experimental predictions regarding how various measures of selectivity would evolve during animal training. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The prefrontal cortex is a brain region believed to support the ability of animals to engage in complex behavior. How neurons in this area respond to stimuli—and in particular, to combinations of stimuli (“mixed selectivity”)—is a topic of interest. Even though models with random feedforward connectivity are capable of creating computationally relevant mixed selectivity, such a model does not match the levels of mixed selectivity seen in the data analyzed in this study. Adding simple Hebbian learning to the model increases mixed selectivity to the correct level and makes the model match the data on several other relevant measures. This study thus offers predictions on how mixed selectivity and other properties evolve with training. PMID:28986463

High-volume forced diuresis with matched hydration using the RenalGuard System to prevent contrast-induced nephropathy: A meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Shah, Rahman; Wood, Sarah J; Khan, Sajjad A; Chaudhry, Amina; Rehan Khan, M; Morsy, Mohamed S

2017-12-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a well-recognized complication of coronary angiography that is associated with poor outcomes. Several small randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have recently shown that in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), furosemide-induced forced diuresis with matched hydration using the RenalGuard system can prevent its occurrence. However, individual studies have been underpowered and thus cannot show significant differences in major clinical endpoints. Forced diuresis with matched hydration using the RenalGuard system improves clinical outcomes in patients undergoing coronary angiography. Scientific databases and websites were searched for relevant RCTs. The pooled risk ratios were calculated using random-effects models. The primary endpoint was CIN, and the secondary endpoints were major adverse clinical events (MACEs) and the need for renal replacement therapy. Data from 3 trials including 586 patients were analyzed. High-volume forced diuresis with matched hydration using the RenalGuard system decreased risk of CIN by 60% (risk ratio: 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.25 to 0.65, P < 0.001), MACE rate by 59%, and the need for renal replacement therapy by 78%, compared with the standard of care. In patients with CKD undergoing coronary angiography, high-volume forced diuresis with matched hydration using the RenalGuard system significantly reduces the risk of CIN, MACE rate, and the need for renal replacement therapy. Larger RCTs with sufficient power are needed to confirm these findings. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Baveja, Manas

2005-01-01

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are ≈11–22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold. PMID:15894628

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program.

PubMed

Wein, Lawrence M; Baveja, Manas

2005-05-24

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are approximately 11-22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold.

Multicenter, randomized trial of quantitative pretest probability to reduce unnecessary medical radiation exposure in emergency department patients with chest pain and dyspnea.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Jones, Alan E; Shapiro, Nathan I; Hernandez, Jackeline; Hogg, Melanie M; Troyer, Jennifer; Nelson, R Darrel

2014-01-01

Use of pretest probability can reduce unnecessary testing. We hypothesize that quantitative pretest probability, linked to evidence-based management strategies, can reduce unnecessary radiation exposure and cost in low-risk patients with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. This was a prospective, 4-center, randomized controlled trial of decision support effectiveness. Subjects were adults with chest pain and dyspnea, nondiagnostic ECGs, and no obvious diagnosis. The clinician provided data needed to compute pretest probabilities from a Web-based system. Clinicians randomized to the intervention group received the pretest probability estimates for both acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism and suggested clinical actions designed to lower radiation exposure and cost. The control group received nothing. Patients were followed for 90 days. The primary outcome and sample size of 550 was predicated on a significant reduction in the proportion of healthy patients exposed to >5 mSv chest radiation. A total of 550 patients were randomized, and 541 had complete data. The proportion with >5 mSv to the chest and no significant cardiopulmonary diagnosis within 90 days was reduced from 33% to 25% (P=0.038). The intervention group had significantly lower median chest radiation exposure (0.06 versus 0.34 mSv; P=0.037, Mann-Whitney U test) and lower median costs ($934 versus $1275; P=0.018) for medical care. Adverse events occurred in 16% of controls and 11% in the intervention group (P=0.06). Provision of pretest probability and prescriptive advice reduced radiation exposure and cost of care in low-risk ambulatory patients with symptoms of acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01059500.

Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jopek, Tadeusz Jan; Bronikowska, Małgorzata

2017-09-01

Probability of coincidental clustering among orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups of 2,3,4,… members. Probability of coincidental clustering is assessed by the numerical simulation, therefore, it depends also on the method used for the synthetic orbits generation. We have tested the impact of some of these factors. For a given size of the orbital sample we have assessed probability of random pairing among several orbital populations of different sizes. We have found how these probabilities vary with the size of the orbital samples. Finally, keeping fixed size of the orbital sample we have shown that the probability of random pairing can be significantly different for the orbital samples obtained by different observation techniques. Also for the user convenience we have obtained several formulae which, for given size of the orbital sample can be used to calculate the similarity threshold corresponding to the small value of the probability of coincidental similarity among two orbits.

Randomness and diversity matter in the maintenance of the public resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aizhi; Zhang, Yanling; Chen, Xiaojie; Sun, Changyin

2017-03-01

Most previous models about the public goods game usually assume two possible strategies, i.e., investing all or nothing. The real-life situation is rarely all or nothing. In this paper, we consider that multiple strategies are adopted in a well-mixed population, and each strategy represents an investment to produce the public goods. Past efforts have found that randomness matters in the evolution of fairness in the ultimatum game. In the framework involving no other mechanisms, we study how diversity and randomness influence the average investment of the population defined by the mean value of all individuals' strategies. The level of diversity is increased by increasing the strategy number, and the level of randomness is increased by increasing the mutation probability, or decreasing the population size or the selection intensity. We find that a higher level of diversity and a higher level of randomness lead to larger average investment and favor more the evolution of cooperation. Under weak selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number, the population size, and the mutation probability. Under strong selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number and the population size, but changes a lot with the mutation probability. Under intermediate selection, the average investment increases significantly with the strategy number and the mutation probability, and decreases significantly with the population size. These findings are meaningful to study how to maintain the public resource.

Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bifulco, Robert

2012-01-01

The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

Outcomes from a School-Randomized Controlled Trial of Steps to Respect: A Bullying Prevention Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Eric C.; Low, Sabina; Smith, Brian H.; Haggerty, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

This study reports the outcomes of a randomized controlled trial of Steps to Respect: A Bullying Prevention Program conducted in 33 California elementary schools. Schools were matched on school demographic characteristics and assigned randomly to intervention or waitlisted control conditions. Outcome measures were obtained from (a) all school…

A Large Population Genetic Study of 15 Autosomal Short Tandem Repeat Loci for Establishment of Korean DNA Profile Database

PubMed Central

Yoo, Seong Yeon; Cho, Nam Soo; Park, Myung Jin; Seong, Ki Min; Hwang, Jung Ho; Song, Seok Bean; Han, Myun Soo; Lee, Won Tae; Chung, Ki Wha

2011-01-01

Genotyping of highly polymorphic short tandem repeat (STR) markers is widely used for the genetic identification of individuals in forensic DNA analyses and in paternity disputes. The National DNA Profile Databank recently established by the DNA Identification Act in Korea contains the computerized STR DNA profiles of individuals convicted of crimes. For the establishment of a large autosomal STR loci population database, 1805 samples were obtained at random from Korean individuals and 15 autosomal STR markers were analyzed using the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification kit. For the 15 autosomal STR markers, no deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were observed. The most informative locus in our data set was the D2S1338 with a discrimination power of 0.9699. The combined matching probability was 1.521 × 10-17. This large STR profile dataset including atypical alleles will be important for the establishment of the Korean DNA database and for forensic applications. PMID:21597912

mtDNA sequence diversity of Hazara ethnic group from Pakistan.

PubMed

Rakha, Allah; Fatima; Peng, Min-Sheng; Adan, Atif; Bi, Rui; Yasmin, Memona; Yao, Yong-Gang

2017-09-01

The present study was undertaken to investigate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences of Hazaras from Pakistan, so as to generate mtDNA reference database for forensic casework in Pakistan and to analyze phylogenetic relationship of this particular ethnic group with geographically proximal populations. Complete mtDNA control region (nt 16024-576) sequences were generated through Sanger Sequencing for 319 Hazara individuals from Quetta, Baluchistan. The population sample set showed a total of 189 distinct haplotypes, belonging mainly to West Eurasian (51.72%), East & Southeast Asian (29.78%) and South Asian (18.50%) haplogroups. Compared with other populations from Pakistan, the Hazara population had a relatively high haplotype diversity (0.9945) and a lower random match probability (0.0085). The dataset has been incorporated into EMPOP database under accession number EMP00680. The data herein comprises the largest, and likely most thoroughly examined, control region mtDNA dataset from Hazaras of Pakistan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A large population genetic study of 15 autosomal short tandem repeat loci for establishment of Korean DNA profile database.

PubMed

Yoo, Seong Yeon; Cho, Nam Soo; Park, Myung Jin; Seong, Ki Min; Hwang, Jung Ho; Song, Seok Bean; Han, Myun Soo; Lee, Won Tae; Chung, Ki Wha

2011-07-01

Genotyping of highly polymorphic short tandem repeat (STR) markers is widely used for the genetic identification of individuals in forensic DNA analyses and in paternity disputes. The National DNA Profile Databank recently established by the DNA Identification Act in Korea contains the computerized STR DNA profiles of individuals convicted of crimes. For the establishment of a large autosomal STR loci population database, 1805 samples were obtained at random from Korean individuals and 15 autosomal STR markers were analyzed using the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification kit. For the 15 autosomal STR markers, no deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were observed. The most informative locus in our data set was the D2S1338 with a discrimination power of 0.9699. The combined matching probability was 1.521 × 10(-17). This large STR profile dataset including atypical alleles will be important for the establishment of the Korean DNA database and for forensic applications.

Quantum resonant activation.

PubMed

Magazzù, Luca; Hänggi, Peter; Spagnolo, Bernardo; Valenti, Davide

2017-04-01

Quantum resonant activation is investigated for the archetype setup of an externally driven two-state (spin-boson) system subjected to strong dissipation by means of both analytical and extensive numerical calculations. The phenomenon of resonant activation emerges in the presence of either randomly fluctuating or deterministic periodically varying driving fields. Addressing the incoherent regime, a characteristic minimum emerges in the mean first passage time to reach an absorbing neighboring state whenever the intrinsic time scale of the modulation matches the characteristic time scale of the system dynamics. For the case of deterministic periodic driving, the first passage time probability density function (pdf) displays a complex, multipeaked behavior, which depends crucially on the details of initial phase, frequency, and strength of the driving. As an interesting feature we find that the mean first passage time enters the resonant activation regime at a critical frequency ν^{*} which depends very weakly on the strength of the driving. Moreover, we provide the relation between the first passage time pdf and the statistics of residence times.

A simple low-computation-intensity model for approximating the distribution function of a sum of non-identical lognormals for financial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messica, A.

2016-10-01

The probability distribution function of a weighted sum of non-identical lognormal random variables is required in various fields of science and engineering and specifically in finance for portfolio management as well as exotic options valuation. Unfortunately, it has no known closed form and therefore has to be approximated. Most of the approximations presented to date are complex as well as complicated for implementation. This paper presents a simple, and easy to implement, approximation method via modified moments matching and a polynomial asymptotic series expansion correction for a central limit theorem of a finite sum. The method results in an intuitively-appealing and computation-efficient approximation for a finite sum of lognormals of at least ten summands and naturally improves as the number of summands increases. The accuracy of the method is tested against the results of Monte Carlo simulationsand also compared against the standard central limit theorem andthe commonly practiced Markowitz' portfolio equations.

Quantum resonant activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magazzó, Luca; Hänggi, Peter; Spagnolo, Bernardo; Valenti, Davide

2017-04-01

Quantum resonant activation is investigated for the archetype setup of an externally driven two-state (spin-boson) system subjected to strong dissipation by means of both analytical and extensive numerical calculations. The phenomenon of resonant activation emerges in the presence of either randomly fluctuating or deterministic periodically varying driving fields. Addressing the incoherent regime, a characteristic minimum emerges in the mean first passage time to reach an absorbing neighboring state whenever the intrinsic time scale of the modulation matches the characteristic time scale of the system dynamics. For the case of deterministic periodic driving, the first passage time probability density function (pdf) displays a complex, multipeaked behavior, which depends crucially on the details of initial phase, frequency, and strength of the driving. As an interesting feature we find that the mean first passage time enters the resonant activation regime at a critical frequency ν* which depends very weakly on the strength of the driving. Moreover, we provide the relation between the first passage time pdf and the statistics of residence times.

Automatic and strategic effects in the guidance of attention by working memory representations

PubMed Central

Carlisle, Nancy B.; Woodman, Geoffrey F.

2010-01-01

Theories of visual attention suggest that working memory representations automatically guide attention toward memory-matching objects. Some empirical tests of this prediction have produced results consistent with working memory automatically guiding attention. However, others have shown that individuals can strategically control whether working memory representations guide visual attention. Previous studies have not independently measured automatic and strategic contributions to the interactions between working memory and attention. In this study, we used a classic manipulation of the probability of valid, neutral, and invalid cues to tease apart the nature of such interactions. This framework utilizes measures of reaction time (RT) to quantify the costs and benefits of attending to memory-matching items and infer the relative magnitudes of automatic and strategic effects. We found both costs and benefits even when the memory-matching item was no more likely to be the target than other items, indicating an automatic component of attentional guidance. However, the costs and benefits essentially doubled as the probability of a trial with a valid cue increased from 20% to 80%, demonstrating a potent strategic effect. We also show that the instructions given to participants led to a significant change in guidance distinct from the actual probability of events during the experiment. Together, these findings demonstrate that the influence of working memory representations on attention is driven by both automatic and strategic interactions. PMID:20643386

Automatic and strategic effects in the guidance of attention by working memory representations.

PubMed

Carlisle, Nancy B; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2011-06-01

Theories of visual attention suggest that working memory representations automatically guide attention toward memory-matching objects. Some empirical tests of this prediction have produced results consistent with working memory automatically guiding attention. However, others have shown that individuals can strategically control whether working memory representations guide visual attention. Previous studies have not independently measured automatic and strategic contributions to the interactions between working memory and attention. In this study, we used a classic manipulation of the probability of valid, neutral, and invalid cues to tease apart the nature of such interactions. This framework utilizes measures of reaction time (RT) to quantify the costs and benefits of attending to memory-matching items and infer the relative magnitudes of automatic and strategic effects. We found both costs and benefits even when the memory-matching item was no more likely to be the target than other items, indicating an automatic component of attentional guidance. However, the costs and benefits essentially doubled as the probability of a trial with a valid cue increased from 20% to 80%, demonstrating a potent strategic effect. We also show that the instructions given to participants led to a significant change in guidance distinct from the actual probability of events during the experiment. Together, these findings demonstrate that the influence of working memory representations on attention is driven by both automatic and strategic interactions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Randomness in Competitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Naim, E.; Hengartner, N. W.; Redner, S.; Vazquez, F.

2013-05-01

We study the effects of randomness on competitions based on an elementary random process in which there is a finite probability that a weaker team upsets a stronger team. We apply this model to sports leagues and sports tournaments, and compare the theoretical results with empirical data. Our model shows that single-elimination tournaments are efficient but unfair: the number of games is proportional to the number of teams N, but the probability that the weakest team wins decays only algebraically with N. In contrast, leagues, where every team plays every other team, are fair but inefficient: the top √{N} of teams remain in contention for the championship, while the probability that the weakest team becomes champion is exponentially small. We also propose a gradual elimination schedule that consists of a preliminary round and a championship round. Initially, teams play a small number of preliminary games, and subsequently, a few teams qualify for the championship round. This algorithm is fair and efficient: the best team wins with a high probability and the number of games scales as N 9/5, whereas traditional leagues require N 3 games to fairly determine a champion.

Complex growing networks with intrinsic vertex fitness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bedogne, C.; Rodgers, G. J.

2006-10-15

One of the major questions in complex network research is to identify the range of mechanisms by which a complex network can self organize into a scale-free state. In this paper we investigate the interplay between a fitness linking mechanism and both random and preferential attachment. In our models, each vertex is assigned a fitness x, drawn from a probability distribution {rho}(x). In Model A, at each time step a vertex is added and joined to an existing vertex, selected at random, with probability p and an edge is introduced between vertices with fitnesses x and y, with a ratemore » f(x,y), with probability 1-p. Model B differs from Model A in that, with probability p, edges are added with preferential attachment rather than randomly. The analysis of Model A shows that, for every fixed fitness x, the network's degree distribution decays exponentially. In Model B we recover instead a power-law degree distribution whose exponent depends only on p, and we show how this result can be generalized. The properties of a number of particular networks are examined.« less

Properties of behavior under different random ratio and random interval schedules: A parametric study.

PubMed

Dembo, M; De Penfold, J B; Ruiz, R; Casalta, H

1985-03-01

Four pigeons were trained to peck a key under different values of a temporally defined independent variable (T) and different probabilities of reinforcement (p). Parameter T is a fixed repeating time cycle and p the probability of reinforcement for the first response of each cycle T. Two dependent variables were used: mean response rate and mean postreinforcement pause. For all values of p a critical value for the independent variable T was found (T=1 sec) in which marked changes took place in response rate and postreinforcement pauses. Behavior typical of random ratio schedules was obtained at T 1 sec and behavior typical of random interval schedules at T 1 sec. Copyright © 1985. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Feature extraction and descriptor calculation methods for automatic georeferencing of Philippines' first microsatellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupas, M. E. A.; Dasallas, J. A.; Jiao, B. J. D.; Magallon, B. J. P.; Sempio, J. N. H.; Ramos, M. K. F.; Aranas, R. K. D.; Tamondong, A. M.

2017-10-01

The FAST-SIFT corner detector and descriptor extractor combination was used to automatically georeference DIWATA-1 Spaceborne Multispectral Imager images. Features from the Fast Accelerated Segment Test (FAST) algorithm detects corners or keypoints in an image, and these robustly detected keypoints have well-defined positions. Descriptors were computed using Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) extractor. FAST-SIFT method effectively SMI same-subscene images detected by the NIR sensor. The method was also tested in stitching NIR images with varying subscene swept by the camera. The slave images were matched to the master image. The keypoints served as the ground control points. Random sample consensus was used to eliminate fall-out matches and ensure accuracy of the feature points from which the transformation parameters were derived. Keypoints are matched based on their descriptor vector. Nearest-neighbor matching is employed based on a metric distance between the descriptors. The metrics include Euclidean and city block, among others. Rough matching outputs not only the correct matches but also the faulty matches. A previous work in automatic georeferencing incorporates a geometric restriction. In this work, we applied a simplified version of the learning method. RANSAC was used to eliminate fall-out matches and ensure accuracy of the feature points. This method identifies if a point fits the transformation function and returns inlier matches. The transformation matrix was solved by Affine, Projective, and Polynomial models. The accuracy of the automatic georeferencing method were determined by calculating the RMSE of interest points, selected randomly, between the master image and transformed slave image.

Rotation and scale change invariant point pattern relaxation matching by the Hopfield neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Nong; Zhang, Tianxu

1997-12-01

Relaxation matching is one of the most relevant methods for image matching. The original relaxation matching technique using point patterns is sensitive to rotations and scale changes. We improve the original point pattern relaxation matching technique to be invariant to rotations and scale changes. A method that makes the Hopfield neural network perform this matching process is discussed. An advantage of this is that the relaxation matching process can be performed in real time with the neural network's massively parallel capability to process information. Experimental results with large simulated images demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the method to perform point patten relaxation matching invariant to rotations and scale changes and the method to perform this matching by the Hopfield neural network. In addition, we show that the method presented can be tolerant to small random error.

Modified Toxicity Probability Interval Design: A Safer and More Reliable Method Than the 3 + 3 Design for Practical Phase I Trials

PubMed Central

Ji, Yuan; Wang, Sue-Jane

2013-01-01

The 3 + 3 design is the most common choice among clinicians for phase I dose-escalation oncology trials. In recent reviews, more than 95% of phase I trials have been based on the 3 + 3 design. Given that it is intuitive and its implementation does not require a computer program, clinicians can conduct 3 + 3 dose escalations in practice with virtually no logistic cost, and trial protocols based on the 3 + 3 design pass institutional review board and biostatistics reviews quickly. However, the performance of the 3 + 3 design has rarely been compared with model-based designs in simulation studies with matched sample sizes. In the vast majority of statistical literature, the 3 + 3 design has been shown to be inferior in identifying true maximum-tolerated doses (MTDs), although the sample size required by the 3 + 3 design is often orders-of-magnitude smaller than model-based designs. In this article, through comparative simulation studies with matched sample sizes, we demonstrate that the 3 + 3 design has higher risks of exposing patients to toxic doses above the MTD than the modified toxicity probability interval (mTPI) design, a newly developed adaptive method. In addition, compared with the mTPI design, the 3 + 3 design does not yield higher probabilities in identifying the correct MTD, even when the sample size is matched. Given that the mTPI design is equally transparent, costless to implement with free software, and more flexible in practical situations, we highly encourage its adoption in early dose-escalation studies whenever the 3 + 3 design is also considered. We provide free software to allow direct comparisons of the 3 + 3 design with other model-based designs in simulation studies with matched sample sizes. PMID:23569307

Delayed Matching to Sample: Probability of Responding in Accord with Equivalence as a Function of Different Delays

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arntzen, Erik

2006-01-01

The present series of 4 experiments investigated the probability of responding in accord with equivalence in adult human participants as a function of increasing or decreasing delays in a many-to-one (MTO) or comparison-as-node and one-to-many (OTM) or sample-as-node conditional discrimination procedure. In Experiment 1, 12 participants started…

Unconventional signal detection techniques with Gaussian probability mixtures adaptation in non-AWGN channels: full resolution receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabdarov, Shamil M.; Nadeev, Adel F.; Chickrin, Dmitry E.; Faizullin, Rashid R.

2011-04-01

In this paper we discuss unconventional detection technique also known as «full resolution receiver». This receiver uses Gaussian probability mixtures for interference structure adaptation. Full resolution receiver is alternative to conventional matched filter receivers in the case of non-Gaussian interferences. For the DS-CDMA forward channel with presence of complex interferences sufficient performance increasing was shown.

Methods, systems, and computer program products for network firewall policy optimization

DOEpatents

Fulp, Errin W [Winston-Salem, NC; Tarsa, Stephen J [Duxbury, MA

2011-10-18

Methods, systems, and computer program products for firewall policy optimization are disclosed. According to one method, a firewall policy including an ordered list of firewall rules is defined. For each rule, a probability indicating a likelihood of receiving a packet matching the rule is determined. The rules are sorted in order of non-increasing probability in a manner that preserves the firewall policy.

Effect of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word-Learning Configuration by Preschoolers with Typical Development and Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Shelley; Pittman, Andrea; Weinhold, Juliet

2014-01-01

Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word-learning configuration by preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) and typical language development (TD). Method: One hundred thirty-one children participated: 48 with SLI, 44 with TD matched on age and gender, and 39…

The Assessment of Recognition Memory Using the Remember/Know Procedure in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Probable Alzheimer's Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudon, Carol; Belleville, Sylvie; Gauthier, Serge

2009-01-01

This study used the Remember/Know (R/K) procedure combined with signal detection analyses to assess recognition memory in 20 elders with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), 10 patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) as well as matched healthy older adults. Signal detection analyses first indicated that aMCI and control participants…

Assessing Performance Tradeoffs in Undersea Distributed Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

time. We refer to this process as track - before - detect (see [5] for a description), since the final determination of a target presence is not made until...expressions for probability of successful search and probability of false search for modeling the track - before - detect process. We then describe a numerical...random manner (randomly sampled from a uniform distribution). II. SENSOR NETWORK PERFORMANCE MODELS We model the process of track - before - detect by

Average fidelity between random quantum states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zyczkowski, Karol; Centrum Fizyki Teoretycznej, Polska Akademia Nauk, Aleja Lotnikow 32/44, 02-668 Warsaw; Perimeter Institute, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 2Y5

2005-03-01

We analyze mean fidelity between random density matrices of size N, generated with respect to various probability measures in the space of mixed quantum states: the Hilbert-Schmidt measure, the Bures (statistical) measure, the measure induced by the partial trace, and the natural measure on the space of pure states. In certain cases explicit probability distributions for the fidelity are derived. The results obtained may be used to gauge the quality of quantum-information-processing schemes.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

The difference between two random mixed quantum states: exact and asymptotic spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía, José; Zapata, Camilo; Botero, Alonso

2017-01-01

We investigate the spectral statistics of the difference of two density matrices, each of which is independently obtained by partially tracing a random bipartite pure quantum state. We first show how a closed-form expression for the exact joint eigenvalue probability density function for arbitrary dimensions can be obtained from the joint probability density function of the diagonal elements of the difference matrix, which is straightforward to compute. Subsequently, we use standard results from free probability theory to derive a relatively simple analytic expression for the asymptotic eigenvalue density (AED) of the difference matrix ensemble, and using Carlson’s theorem, we obtain an expression for its absolute moments. These results allow us to quantify the typical asymptotic distance between the two random mixed states using various distance measures; in particular, we obtain the almost sure asymptotic behavior of the operator norm distance and the trace distance.

Two Universality Properties Associated with the Monkey Model of Zipf's Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perline, Richard; Perline, Ron

2016-03-01

The distribution of word probabilities in the monkey model of Zipf's law is associated with two universality properties: (1) the power law exponent converges strongly to $-1$ as the alphabet size increases and the letter probabilities are specified as the spacings from a random division of the unit interval for any distribution with a bounded density function on $[0,1]$; and (2), on a logarithmic scale the version of the model with a finite word length cutoff and unequal letter probabilities is approximately normally distributed in the part of the distribution away from the tails. The first property is proved using a remarkably general limit theorem for the logarithm of sample spacings from Shao and Hahn, and the second property follows from Anscombe's central limit theorem for a random number of i.i.d. random variables. The finite word length model leads to a hybrid Zipf-lognormal mixture distribution closely related to work in other areas.

Optimal random search for a single hidden target.

PubMed

Snider, Joseph

2011-01-01

A single target is hidden at a location chosen from a predetermined probability distribution. Then, a searcher must find a second probability distribution from which random search points are sampled such that the target is found in the minimum number of trials. Here it will be shown that if the searcher must get very close to the target to find it, then the best search distribution is proportional to the square root of the target distribution regardless of dimension. For a Gaussian target distribution, the optimum search distribution is approximately a Gaussian with a standard deviation that varies inversely with how close the searcher must be to the target to find it. For a network where the searcher randomly samples nodes and looks for the fixed target along edges, the optimum is either to sample a node with probability proportional to the square root of the out-degree plus 1 or not to do so at all.

A Random Variable Transformation Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheuermann, Larry

1989-01-01

Provides a short BASIC program, RANVAR, which generates random variates for various theoretical probability distributions. The seven variates include: uniform, exponential, normal, binomial, Poisson, Pascal, and triangular. (MVL)

Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-03-01

We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, M.

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

Visualizing and Understanding Probability and Statistics: Graphical Simulations Using Excel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Sheldon P.; Gordon, Florence S.

2009-01-01

The authors describe a collection of dynamic interactive simulations for teaching and learning most of the important ideas and techniques of introductory statistics and probability. The modules cover such topics as randomness, simulations of probability experiments such as coin flipping, dice rolling and general binomial experiments, a simulation…

Rare event simulation in radiation transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollman, Craig

1993-10-01

This dissertation studies methods for estimating extremely small probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. Problems in radiation transport typically involve estimating very rare events or the expected value of a random variable which is with overwhelming probability equal to zero. These problems often have high dimensional state spaces and irregular geometries so that analytic solutions are not possible. Monte Carlo simulation must be used to estimate the radiation dosage being transported to a particular location. If the area is well shielded the probability of any one particular particle getting through is very small. Because of the large number of particles involved,more » even a tiny fraction penetrating the shield may represent an unacceptable level of radiation. It therefore becomes critical to be able to accurately estimate this extremely small probability. Importance sampling is a well known technique for improving the efficiency of rare event calculations. Here, a new set of probabilities is used in the simulation runs. The results are multiple by the likelihood ratio between the true and simulated probabilities so as to keep the estimator unbiased. The variance of the resulting estimator is very sensitive to which new set of transition probabilities are chosen. It is shown that a zero variance estimator does exist, but that its computation requires exact knowledge of the solution. A simple random walk with an associated killing model for the scatter of neutrons is introduced. Large deviation results for optimal importance sampling in random walks are extended to the case where killing is present. An adaptive ``learning`` algorithm for implementing importance sampling is given for more general Markov chain models of neutron scatter. For finite state spaces this algorithm is shown to give with probability one, a sequence of estimates converging exponentially fast to the true solution.« less

Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial.

PubMed

Agoritsas, Thomas; Courvoisier, Delphine S; Combescure, Christophe; Deom, Marie; Perneger, Thomas V

2011-04-01

The probability of a disease following a diagnostic test depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, but also on the prevalence of the disease in the population of interest (or pre-test probability). How physicians use this information is not well known. To assess whether physicians correctly estimate post-test probability according to various levels of prevalence and explore this skill across respondent groups. Randomized trial. Population-based sample of 1,361 physicians of all clinical specialties. We described a scenario of a highly accurate screening test (sensitivity 99% and specificity 99%) in which we randomly manipulated the prevalence of the disease (1%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 95%, or no information). We asked physicians to estimate the probability of disease following a positive test (categorized as <60%, 60-79%, 80-94%, 95-99.9%, and >99.9%). Each answer was correct for a different version of the scenario, and no answer was possible in the "no information" scenario. We estimated the proportion of physicians proficient in assessing post-test probability as the proportion of correct answers beyond the distribution of answers attributable to guessing. Most respondents in each of the six groups (67%-82%) selected a post-test probability of 95-99.9%, regardless of the prevalence of disease and even when no information on prevalence was provided. This answer was correct only for a prevalence of 25%. We estimated that 9.1% (95% CI 6.0-14.0) of respondents knew how to assess correctly the post-test probability. This proportion did not vary with clinical experience or practice setting. Most physicians do not take into account the prevalence of disease when interpreting a positive test result. This may cause unnecessary testing and diagnostic errors.

A large multi-pathogen gastroenteritis outbreak caused by drinking contaminated water from antique neighbourhood fountains, Erzurum city, Turkey, December 2012.

PubMed

Sezen, F; Aval, E; Ağkurt, T; Yilmaz, Ş; Temel, F; Güleşen, R; Korukluoğlu, G; Sucakli, M B; Torunoğlu, M A; Zhu, B-P

2015-03-01

We investigated a gastroenteritis outbreak in Erzurum city, Turkey in December 2012 to identify its cause and mode of transmission. We defined a probable case as onset of diarrhoea (⩾3 episodes/day) or vomiting, plus fever or nausea or abdominal pain during 19-27 December, 2012 in an Erzurum city resident. In a case-control study we compared exposures of 95 randomly selected probable cases and 95 neighbourhood-matched controls. We conducted bacterial culture and real-time multiplex PCR for identification of pathogens. During the week before illness onset, 72% of cases and 15% of controls only drank water from antique neighbourhood fountains; conversely, 16% of cases and 65% of controls only drank bottled or tap water (adjusted odds ratio 20, 95% confidence interval 4·6-84, after controlling for age and sex using conditional logistic regression). Of eight stool specimens collected, two were positive for Shigella sonnei, one for astrovirus, one for astrovirus and norovirus, and one for astrovirus and rotavirus. Water samples from the fountains had elevated total coliform (38-300/100 ml) and Escherichia coli (22-198/100 ml) counts. In conclusion, drinking contaminated fountain water caused this multi-pathogen outbreak. Residents should stop drinking water from these fountains, and clean water from the water treatment plant should be connected to the fountains.

Determining the authenticity of athlete urine in doping control by DNA analysis.

PubMed

Devesse, Laurence; Syndercombe Court, Denise; Cowan, David

2015-10-01

The integrity of urine samples collected from athletes for doping control is essential. The authenticity of samples may be contested, leading to the need for a robust sample identification method. DNA typing using short tandem repeats (STR) can be used for identification purposes, but its application to cellular DNA in urine has so far been limited. Here, a reliable and accurate method is reported for the successful identification of urine samples, using reduced final extraction volumes and the STR multiplex kit, Promega® PowerPlex ESI 17, with capillary electrophoretic characterisation of the alleles. Full DNA profiles were obtained for all samples (n = 20) stored for less than 2 days at 4 °C. The effect of different storage conditions on yield of cellular DNA and probability of obtaining a full profile were also investigated. Storage for 21 days at 4 °C resulted in allelic drop-out in some samples, but the random match probabilities obtained demonstrate the high power of discrimination achieved through targeting a large number of STRs. The best solution for long-term storage was centrifugation and removal of supernatant prior to freezing at -20 °C. The method is robust enough for incorporation into current anti-doping protocols, and was successfully applied to 44 athlete samples for anti-doping testing with 100% concordant typing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reinforcement learning and decision making in monkeys during a competitive game.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol; Conroy, Michelle L; McGreevy, Benjamin P; Barraclough, Dominic J

2004-12-01

Animals living in a dynamic environment must adjust their decision-making strategies through experience. To gain insights into the neural basis of such adaptive decision-making processes, we trained monkeys to play a competitive game against a computer in an oculomotor free-choice task. The animal selected one of two visual targets in each trial and was rewarded only when it selected the same target as the computer opponent. To determine how the animal's decision-making strategy can be affected by the opponent's strategy, the computer opponent was programmed with three different algorithms that exploited different aspects of the animal's choice and reward history. When the computer selected its targets randomly with equal probabilities, animals selected one of the targets more often, violating the prediction of probability matching, and their choices were systematically influenced by the choice history of the two players. When the computer exploited only the animal's choice history but not its reward history, animal's choice became more independent of its own choice history but was still related to the choice history of the opponent. This bias was substantially reduced, but not completely eliminated, when the computer used the choice history of both players in making its predictions. These biases were consistent with the predictions of reinforcement learning, suggesting that the animals sought optimal decision-making strategies using reinforcement learning algorithms.

More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-06-01

Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp. 1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp. 1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.

Influence of the HLA characteristics of Italian patients on donor search outcome in unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

PubMed

Testi, M; Andreani, M; Locatelli, F; Arcese, W; Troiano, M; Battarra, M; Gaziev, J; Lucarelli, G

2014-08-01

The information regarding the probability of finding a matched unrelated donor (MUD) within a relatively short time is crucial for the success of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), particularly in patients with malignancies. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 315 Italian patients who started a search for a MUD, in order to assess the distribution of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles and haplotypes in this population of patients and to evaluate the probability of finding a donor. Comparing two groups of patients based on whether or not a 10/10 HLA-matched donor was available, we found that patients who had a fully-matched MUD possessed at least one frequent haplotype more often than the others (45.6% vs 14.3%; P = 0.000003). In addition, analysis of data pertaining to the HLA class I alleles distribution showed that, in the first group of patients, less common alleles were under-represented (20.2% vs 40.0%; P = 0.006). Therefore, the presence of less frequent alleles represents a negative factor for the search for a potential compatible donor being successful, whereas the presence of one frequent haplotype represents a positive predictive factor. Antigenic differences between patient and donor observed at C and DQB1 loci, were mostly represented by particular B/C or DRB1/DQB1 allelic associations. Thus, having a particular B or DRB1 allele, linked to multiple C or DQB1 alleles, respectively, might be considered to be associated with a lower probability of a successful search. Taken together, these data may help determine in advance the probability of finding a suitable unrelated donor for an Italian patient. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sleep Stage Transition Dynamics Reveal Specific Stage 2 Vulnerability in Insomnia.

PubMed

Wei, Yishul; Colombo, Michele A; Ramautar, Jennifer R; Blanken, Tessa F; van der Werf, Ysbrand D; Spiegelhalder, Kai; Feige, Bernd; Riemann, Dieter; Van Someren, Eus J W

2017-09-01

Objective sleep impairments in insomnia disorder (ID) are insufficiently understood. The present study evaluated whether whole-night sleep stage dynamics derived from polysomnography (PSG) differ between people with ID and matched controls and whether sleep stage dynamic features discriminate them better than conventional sleep parameters. Eighty-eight participants aged 21-70 years, including 46 with ID and 42 age- and sex-matched controls without sleep complaints, were recruited through www.sleepregistry.nl and completed two nights of laboratory PSG. Data of 100 people with ID and 100 age- and sex-matched controls from a previously reported study were used to validate the generalizability of findings. The second night was used to obtain, in addition to conventional sleep parameters, probabilities of transitions between stages and bout duration distributions of each stage. Group differences were evaluated with nonparametric tests. People with ID showed higher empirical probabilities to transition from stage N2 to the lighter sleep stage N1 or wakefulness and a faster decaying stage N2 bout survival function. The increased transition probability from stage N2 to stage N1 discriminated people with ID better than any of their deviations in conventional sleep parameters, including less total sleep time, less sleep efficiency, more stage N1, and more wake after sleep onset. Moreover, adding this transition probability significantly improved the discriminating power of a multiple logistic regression model based on conventional sleep parameters. Quantification of sleep stage dynamics revealed a particular vulnerability of stage N2 in insomnia. The feature characterizes insomnia better than-and independently of-any conventional sleep parameter. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Carlsberg alibi marketing in the UEFA euro 2016 football finals: implications of Probably inappropriate alcohol advertising.

PubMed

Murray, Rachael; Breton, Magdalena Opazo; Britton, John; Cranwell, Jo; Grant-Braham, Bruce

2018-04-25

Alcohol advertising is a key driver of alcohol consumption, and is prohibited in France by the Loi Evin. In 2016 the Danish brewer Carlsberg sponsored the UEFA Euro 2016 finals, held in France, and used the alibis 'Probably' and '…the best in the world' in place of Carlsberg in pitch-side advertising. We have quantified the advertising exposure achieved during the final seven games in the UEFA Euro 2016 championship. Appearances of the Carlsberg alibis 'Probably' and 'the best in the world' were counted and timed to the nearest second during all active play in live coverage of quarter final, semi-final and final matches broadcast in the UK. We used census data and viewing figures from Kantar Media to estimate gross and per capita impressions of these advertisements in the UK population. In 796 min, 29 s of active play there were 746 alibi appearances, totalling 68 min 35 s duration and representing 8.6% of active playing time. Appearances were particularly frequent at the end of normal time, extra time and penalties. The seven matches delivered up to 7.43 billion Carlsberg alibi impressions to UK adults and 163.3 million to children. In the only match involving a second country with laws prohibiting alcohol advertising (France versus Iceland), exposure occurred for only 1.8% of playing time. Alibi marketing achieved significant advertising coverage during the final seven EURO 2016 championship games, particularly to children. Since 'Probably' is registered by Carlsberg as a wordmark this advertising appears to contravene the Loi Evin, though Carlsberg have defended their marketing actions.

Rethinking human visual attention: spatial cueing effects and optimality of decisions by honeybees, monkeys and humans.

PubMed

Eckstein, Miguel P; Mack, Stephen C; Liston, Dorion B; Bogush, Lisa; Menzel, Randolf; Krauzlis, Richard J

2013-06-07

Visual attention is commonly studied by using visuo-spatial cues indicating probable locations of a target and assessing the effect of the validity of the cue on perceptual performance and its neural correlates. Here, we adapt a cueing task to measure spatial cueing effects on the decisions of honeybees and compare their behavior to that of humans and monkeys in a similarly structured two-alternative forced-choice perceptual task. Unlike the typical cueing paradigm in which the stimulus strength remains unchanged within a block of trials, for the monkey and human studies we randomized the contrast of the signal to simulate more real world conditions in which the organism is uncertain about the strength of the signal. A Bayesian ideal observer that weights sensory evidence from cued and uncued locations based on the cue validity to maximize overall performance is used as a benchmark of comparison against the three animals and other suboptimal models: probability matching, ignore the cue, always follow the cue, and an additive bias/single decision threshold model. We find that the cueing effect is pervasive across all three species but is smaller in size than that shown by the Bayesian ideal observer. Humans show a larger cueing effect than monkeys and bees show the smallest effect. The cueing effect and overall performance of the honeybees allows rejection of the models in which the bees are ignoring the cue, following the cue and disregarding stimuli to be discriminated, or adopting a probability matching strategy. Stimulus strength uncertainty also reduces the theoretically predicted variation in cueing effect with stimulus strength of an optimal Bayesian observer and diminishes the size of the cueing effect when stimulus strength is low. A more biologically plausible model that includes an additive bias to the sensory response from the cued location, although not mathematically equivalent to the optimal observer for the case stimulus strength uncertainty, can approximate the benefits of the more computationally complex optimal Bayesian model. We discuss the implications of our findings on the field's common conceptualization of covert visual attention in the cueing task and what aspects, if any, might be unique to humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Students' Misconceptions about Random Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kachapova, Farida; Kachapov, Ilias

2012-01-01

This article describes some misconceptions about random variables and related counter-examples, and makes suggestions about teaching initial topics on random variables in general form instead of doing it separately for discrete and continuous cases. The focus is on post-calculus probability courses. (Contains 2 figures.)

Discriminability limits in spatio-temporal stereo block matching.

PubMed

Jain, Ankit K; Nguyen, Truong Q

2014-05-01

Disparity estimation is a fundamental task in stereo imaging and is a well-studied problem. Recently, methods have been adapted to the video domain where motion is used as a matching criterion to help disambiguate spatially similar candidates. In this paper, we analyze the validity of the underlying assumptions of spatio-temporal disparity estimation, and determine the extent to which motion aids the matching process. By analyzing the error signal for spatio-temporal block matching under the sum of squared differences criterion and treating motion as a stochastic process, we determine the probability of a false match as a function of image features, motion distribution, image noise, and number of frames in the spatio-temporal patch. This performance quantification provides insight into when spatio-temporal matching is most beneficial in terms of the scene and motion, and can be used as a guide to select parameters for stereo matching algorithms. We validate our results through simulation and experiments on stereo video.

Almost all quantum channels are equidistant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nechita, Ion; Puchała, Zbigniew; Pawela, Łukasz; Życzkowski, Karol

2018-05-01

In this work, we analyze properties of generic quantum channels in the case of large system size. We use random matrix theory and free probability to show that the distance between two independent random channels converges to a constant value as the dimension of the system grows larger. As a measure of the distance we use the diamond norm. In the case of a flat Hilbert-Schmidt distribution on quantum channels, we obtain that the distance converges to 1/2 +2/π , giving also an estimate for the maximum success probability for distinguishing the channels. We also consider the problem of distinguishing two random unitary rotations.

Simplified biased random walk model for RecA-protein-mediated homology recognition offers rapid and accurate self-assembly of long linear arrays of binding sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kates-Harbeck, Julian; Tilloy, Antoine; Prentiss, Mara

2013-07-01

Inspired by RecA-protein-based homology recognition, we consider the pairing of two long linear arrays of binding sites. We propose a fully reversible, physically realizable biased random walk model for rapid and accurate self-assembly due to the spontaneous pairing of matching binding sites, where the statistics of the searched sample are included. In the model, there are two bound conformations, and the free energy for each conformation is a weakly nonlinear function of the number of contiguous matched bound sites.

Diffraction study of duty-cycle error in ferroelectric quasi-phase-matching gratings with Gaussian beam illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, Prashant Povel; Kumar, Challa Sesha Sai Pavan; Choi, Hee Joo; Cha, Myoungsik

2016-02-01

Random duty-cycle error (RDE) is inherent in the fabrication of ferroelectric quasi-phase-matching (QPM) gratings. Although a small RDE may not affect the nonlinearity of QPM devices, it enhances non-phase-matched parasitic harmonic generations, limiting the device performance in some applications. Recently, we demonstrated a simple method for measuring the RDE in QPM gratings by analyzing the far-field diffraction pattern obtained by uniform illumination (Dwivedi et al. in Opt Express 21:30221-30226, 2013). In the present study, we used a Gaussian beam illumination for the diffraction experiment to measure noise spectra that are less affected by the pedestals of the strong diffraction orders. Our results were compared with our calculations based on a random grating model, demonstrating improved resolution in the RDE estimation.

Slider--maximum use of probability information for alignment of short sequence reads and SNP detection.

PubMed

Malhis, Nawar; Butterfield, Yaron S N; Ester, Martin; Jones, Steven J M

2009-01-01

A plethora of alignment tools have been created that are designed to best fit different types of alignment conditions. While some of these are made for aligning Illumina Sequence Analyzer reads, none of these are fully utilizing its probability (prb) output. In this article, we will introduce a new alignment approach (Slider) that reduces the alignment problem space by utilizing each read base's probabilities given in the prb files. Compared with other aligners, Slider has higher alignment accuracy and efficiency. In addition, given that Slider matches bases with probabilities other than the most probable, it significantly reduces the percentage of base mismatches. The result is that its SNP predictions are more accurate than other SNP prediction approaches used today that start from the most probable sequence, including those using base quality.

Probability distribution of the entanglement across a cut at an infinite-randomness fixed point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devakul, Trithep; Majumdar, Satya N.; Huse, David A.

2017-03-01

We calculate the probability distribution of entanglement entropy S across a cut of a finite one-dimensional spin chain of length L at an infinite-randomness fixed point using Fisher's strong randomness renormalization group (RG). Using the random transverse-field Ising model as an example, the distribution is shown to take the form p (S |L ) ˜L-ψ (k ) , where k ≡S /ln[L /L0] , the large deviation function ψ (k ) is found explicitly, and L0 is a nonuniversal microscopic length. We discuss the implications of such a distribution on numerical techniques that rely on entanglement, such as matrix-product-state-based techniques. Our results are verified with numerical RG simulations, as well as the actual entanglement entropy distribution for the random transverse-field Ising model which we calculate for large L via a mapping to Majorana fermions.

A scaling law for random walks on networks

PubMed Central

Perkins, Theodore J.; Foxall, Eric; Glass, Leon; Edwards, Roderick

2014-01-01

The dynamics of many natural and artificial systems are well described as random walks on a network: the stochastic behaviour of molecules, traffic patterns on the internet, fluctuations in stock prices and so on. The vast literature on random walks provides many tools for computing properties such as steady-state probabilities or expected hitting times. Previously, however, there has been no general theory describing the distribution of possible paths followed by a random walk. Here, we show that for any random walk on a finite network, there are precisely three mutually exclusive possibilities for the form of the path distribution: finite, stretched exponential and power law. The form of the distribution depends only on the structure of the network, while the stepping probabilities control the parameters of the distribution. We use our theory to explain path distributions in domains such as sports, music, nonlinear dynamics and stochastic chemical kinetics. PMID:25311870

A scaling law for random walks on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, Theodore J.; Foxall, Eric; Glass, Leon; Edwards, Roderick

2014-10-01

The dynamics of many natural and artificial systems are well described as random walks on a network: the stochastic behaviour of molecules, traffic patterns on the internet, fluctuations in stock prices and so on. The vast literature on random walks provides many tools for computing properties such as steady-state probabilities or expected hitting times. Previously, however, there has been no general theory describing the distribution of possible paths followed by a random walk. Here, we show that for any random walk on a finite network, there are precisely three mutually exclusive possibilities for the form of the path distribution: finite, stretched exponential and power law. The form of the distribution depends only on the structure of the network, while the stepping probabilities control the parameters of the distribution. We use our theory to explain path distributions in domains such as sports, music, nonlinear dynamics and stochastic chemical kinetics.

A scaling law for random walks on networks.

PubMed

Perkins, Theodore J; Foxall, Eric; Glass, Leon; Edwards, Roderick

2014-10-14

The dynamics of many natural and artificial systems are well described as random walks on a network: the stochastic behaviour of molecules, traffic patterns on the internet, fluctuations in stock prices and so on. The vast literature on random walks provides many tools for computing properties such as steady-state probabilities or expected hitting times. Previously, however, there has been no general theory describing the distribution of possible paths followed by a random walk. Here, we show that for any random walk on a finite network, there are precisely three mutually exclusive possibilities for the form of the path distribution: finite, stretched exponential and power law. The form of the distribution depends only on the structure of the network, while the stepping probabilities control the parameters of the distribution. We use our theory to explain path distributions in domains such as sports, music, nonlinear dynamics and stochastic chemical kinetics.

Pigeons ("Columba Livia") Approach Nash Equilibrium in Experimental Matching Pennies Competitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanabria, Federico; Thrailkill, Eric

2009-01-01

The game of Matching Pennies (MP), a simplified version of the more popular Rock, Papers, Scissors, schematically represents competitions between organisms with incentives to predict each other's behavior. Optimal performance in iterated MP competitions involves the production of random choice patterns and the detection of nonrandomness in the…

Finding a Comparison Group: Is Online Crowdsourcing a Viable Option?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Azzam, Tarek; Jacobson, Miriam R.

2013-01-01

This article explores the viability of online crowdsourcing for creating matched-comparison groups. This exploratory study compares survey results from a randomized control group to survey results from a matched-comparison group created from Amazon.com's MTurk crowdsourcing service to determine their comparability. Study findings indicate…

On the Bias-Amplifying Effect of Near Instruments in Observational Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Peter M.; Kim, Yongnam

2014-01-01

In contrast to randomized experiments, the estimation of unbiased treatment effects from observational data requires an analysis that conditions on all confounding covariates. Conditioning on covariates can be done via standard parametric regression techniques or nonparametric matching like propensity score (PS) matching. The regression or…

Comparison of genetic algorithm methods for fuel management optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeChaine, M.D.; Feltus, M.A.

1995-12-31

The CIGARO system was developed for genetic algorithm fuel management optimization. Tests are performed to find the best fuel location swap mutation operator probability and to compare genetic algorithm to a truly random search method. Tests showed the fuel swap probability should be between 0% and 10%, and a 50% definitely hampered the optimization. The genetic algorithm performed significantly better than the random search method, which did not even satisfy the peak normalized power constraint.

Continuous-time random-walk model for financial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Weiss, George H.

2003-02-01

We apply the formalism of the continuous-time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the U.S. dollar deutsche mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.

Hoeffding Type Inequalities and their Applications in Statistics and Operations Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daras, Tryfon

2007-09-01

Large Deviation theory is the branch of Probability theory that deals with rare events. Sometimes, these events can be described by the sum of random variables that deviates from its mean more than a "normal" amount. A precise calculation of the probabilities of such events turns out to be crucial in a variety of different contents (e.g. in Probability Theory, Statistics, Operations Research, Statistical Physics, Financial Mathematics e.t.c.). Recent applications of the theory deal with random walks in random environments, interacting diffusions, heat conduction, polymer chains [1]. In this paper we prove an inequality of exponential type, namely theorem 2.1, which gives a large deviation upper bound for a specific sequence of r.v.s. Inequalities of this type have many applications in Combinatorics [2]. The inequality generalizes already proven results of this type, in the case of symmetric probability measures. We get as consequences to the inequality: (a) large deviations upper bounds for exchangeable Bernoulli sequences of random variables, generalizing results proven for independent and identically distributed Bernoulli sequences of r.v.s. and (b) a general form of Bernstein's inequality. We compare the inequality with large deviation results already proven by the author and try to see its advantages. Finally, using the inequality, we solve one of the basic problems of Operations Research (bin packing problem) in the case of exchangeable r.v.s.

A quantum-like model of homeopathy clinical trials: importance of in situ randomization and unblinding.

PubMed

Beauvais, Francis

2013-04-01

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) is the 'gold standard' of modern clinical pharmacology. However, for many practitioners of homeopathy, blind RCTs are an inadequate research tool for testing complex therapies such as homeopathy. Classical probabilities used in biological sciences and in medicine are only a special case of the generalized theory of probability used in quantum physics. I describe homeopathy trials using a quantum-like statistical model, a model inspired by quantum physics and taking into consideration superposition of states, non-commuting observables, probability interferences, contextuality, etc. The negative effect of blinding on success of homeopathy trials and the 'smearing effect' ('specific' effects of homeopathy medicine occurring in the placebo group) are described by quantum-like probabilities without supplementary ad hoc hypotheses. The difference of positive outcome rates between placebo and homeopathy groups frequently vanish in centralized blind trials. The model proposed here suggests a way to circumvent such problems in masked homeopathy trials by incorporating in situ randomization/unblinding. In this quantum-like model of homeopathy clinical trials, success in open-label setting and failure with centralized blind RCTs emerge logically from the formalism. This model suggests that significant differences between placebo and homeopathy in blind RCTs would be found more frequently if in situ randomization/unblinding was used. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A comparison of numerical solutions of partial differential equations with probabilistic and possibilistic parameters for the quantification of uncertainty in subsurface solute transport.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Li, Hua

2009-11-03

Traditionally, uncertainty in parameters are represented as probabilistic distributions and incorporated into groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. With the advent of newer uncertainty theories, it is now understood that stochastic methods cannot properly represent non random uncertainties. In the groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations, uncertainty in some parameters may be random, whereas those of others may be non random. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equation (FSPDE) model to simulate conditions where both random and non random uncertainties are involved in groundwater flow and solute transport. Three potential solution techniques namely, (a) transforming a probability distribution to a possibility distribution (Method I) then a FSPDE becomes a fuzzy partial differential equation (FPDE), (b) transforming a possibility distribution to a probability distribution (Method II) and then a FSPDE becomes a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), and (c) the combination of Monte Carlo methods and FPDE solution techniques (Method III) are proposed and compared. The effects of these three methods on the predictive results are investigated by using two case studies. The results show that the predictions obtained from Method II is a specific case of that got from Method I. When an exact probabilistic result is needed, Method II is suggested. As the loss or gain of information during a probability-possibility (or vice versa) transformation cannot be quantified, their influences on the predictive results is not known. Thus, Method III should probably be preferred for risk assessments.

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesson, R.

1973-01-01

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

A rational inference approach to group and individual-level sentence comprehension performance in aphasia.

PubMed

Warren, Tessa; Dickey, Michael Walsh; Liburd, Teljer L

2017-07-01

The rational inference, or noisy channel, account of language comprehension predicts that comprehenders are sensitive to the probabilities of different interpretations for a given sentence and adapt as these probabilities change (Gibson, Bergen & Piantadosi, 2013). This account provides an important new perspective on aphasic sentence comprehension: aphasia may increase the likelihood of sentence distortion, leading people with aphasia (PWA) to rely more on the prior probability of an interpretation and less on the form or structure of the sentence (Gibson, Sandberg, Fedorenko, Bergen & Kiran, 2015). We report the results of a sentence-picture matching experiment that tested the predictions of the rational inference account and other current models of aphasic sentence comprehension across a variety of sentence structures. Consistent with the rational inference account, PWA showed similar sensitivity to the probability of particular kinds of form distortions as age-matched controls, yet overall their interpretations relied more on prior probability and less on sentence form. As predicted by rational inference, but not by other models of sentence comprehension in aphasia, PWA's interpretations were more faithful to the form for active and passive sentences than for direct object and prepositional object sentences. However contra rational inference, there was no evidence that individual PWA's severity of syntactic or semantic impairment predicted their sensitivity to form versus the prior probability of a sentence, as cued by semantics. These findings confirm and extend previous findings that suggest the rational inference account holds promise for explaining aphasic and neurotypical comprehension, but they also raise new challenges for the account. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Birthday Problem Anew

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braza, Peter A.

2006-01-01

Accurate and accessible expressions for the probability of having a matching birthday are obtained by using Stirling's formula and Taylor series. For interest, the results are applied to the planets of our solar system.

On the synchronizability and detectability of random PPM sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georghiades, Costas N.; Lin, Shu

1987-01-01

The problem of synchronization and detection of random pulse-position-modulation (PPM) sequences is investigated under the assumption of perfect slot synchronization. Maximum-likelihood PPM symbol synchronization and receiver algorithms are derived that make decisions based both on soft as well as hard data; these algorithms are seen to be easily implementable. Bounds derived on the symbol error probability as well as the probability of false synchronization indicate the existence of a rather severe performance floor, which can easily be the limiting factor in the overall system performance. The performance floor is inherent in the PPM format and random data and becomes more serious as the PPM alphabet size Q is increased. A way to eliminate the performance floor is suggested by inserting special PPM symbols in the random data stream.

On the synchronizability and detectability of random PPM sequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georghiades, Costas N.

1987-01-01

The problem of synchronization and detection of random pulse-position-modulation (PPM) sequences is investigated under the assumption of perfect slot synchronization. Maximum likelihood PPM symbol synchronization and receiver algorithms are derived that make decisions based both on soft as well as hard data; these algorithms are seen to be easily implementable. Bounds were derived on the symbol error probability as well as the probability of false synchronization that indicate the existence of a rather severe performance floor, which can easily be the limiting factor in the overall system performance. The performance floor is inherent in the PPM format and random data and becomes more serious as the PPM alphabet size Q is increased. A way to eliminate the performance floor is suggested by inserting special PPM symbols in the random data stream.

On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability versus Inductive Confirmation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-01-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such…

On the use of secondary capture-recapture samples to estimate temporary emigration and breeding proportions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; North, P.M.; Nichols, J.D.

1995-01-01

The use of the Cormack- Jolly-Seber model under a standard sampling scheme of one sample per time period, when the Jolly-Seber assumption that all emigration is permanent does not hold, leads to the confounding of temporary emigration probabilities with capture probabilities. This biases the estimates of capture probability when temporary emigration is a completely random process, and both capture and survival probabilities when there is a temporary trap response in temporary emigration, or it is Markovian. The use of secondary capture samples over a shorter interval within each period, during which the population is assumed to be closed (Pollock's robust design), provides a second source of information on capture probabilities. This solves the confounding problem, and thus temporary emigration probabilities can be estimated. This process can be accomplished in an ad hoc fashion for completely random temporary emigration and to some extent in the temporary trap response case, but modelling the complete sampling process provides more flexibility and permits direct estimation of variances. For the case of Markovian temporary emigration, a full likelihood is required.

Introducing Perception and Modelling of Spatial Randomness in Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Nóbrega, José Renato

2017-01-01

A strategy to facilitate understanding of spatial randomness is described, using student activities developed in sequence: looking at spatial patterns, simulating approximate spatial randomness using a grid of equally-likely squares, using binomial probabilities for approximations and predictions and then comparing with given Poisson…

Device-independent randomness generation from several Bell estimators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto-Silleras, Olmo; Bamps, Cédric; Silman, Jonathan; Pironio, Stefano

2018-02-01

Device-independent randomness generation and quantum key distribution protocols rely on a fundamental relation between the non-locality of quantum theory and its random character. This relation is usually expressed in terms of a trade-off between the probability of guessing correctly the outcomes of measurements performed on quantum systems and the amount of violation of a given Bell inequality. However, a more accurate assessment of the randomness produced in Bell experiments can be obtained if the value of several Bell expressions is simultaneously taken into account, or if the full set of probabilities characterizing the behavior of the device is considered. We introduce protocols for device-independent randomness generation secure against classical side information, that rely on the estimation of an arbitrary number of Bell expressions or even directly on the experimental frequencies of measurement outcomes. Asymptotically, this results in an optimal generation of randomness from experimental data (as measured by the min-entropy), without having to assume beforehand that the devices violate a specific Bell inequality.

On the joint spectral density of bivariate random sequences. Thesis Technical Report No. 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aalfs, David D.

1995-01-01

For univariate random sequences, the power spectral density acts like a probability density function of the frequencies present in the sequence. This dissertation extends that concept to bivariate random sequences. For this purpose, a function called the joint spectral density is defined that represents a joint probability weighing of the frequency content of pairs of random sequences. Given a pair of random sequences, the joint spectral density is not uniquely determined in the absence of any constraints. Two approaches to constraining the sequences are suggested: (1) assume the sequences are the margins of some stationary random field, (2) assume the sequences conform to a particular model that is linked to the joint spectral density. For both approaches, the properties of the resulting sequences are investigated in some detail, and simulation is used to corroborate theoretical results. It is concluded that under either of these two constraints, the joint spectral density can be computed from the non-stationary cross-correlation.

The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Nonword Repetition and Fast Mapping in 3-Year-Olds with a History of Expressive Language Delay

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Dalton, Kevin Patrick

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability on sublexical (phonological) and lexical representations in 3-year-olds who had a history of being late talkers in comparison with their peers with typical language development. Method: Ten 3-year-olds who were late talkers and 10 age-matched typically…

Joint-layer encoder optimization for HEVC scalable extensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Chia-Ming; He, Yuwen; Dong, Jie; Ye, Yan; Xiu, Xiaoyu; He, Yong

2014-09-01

Scalable video coding provides an efficient solution to support video playback on heterogeneous devices with various channel conditions in heterogeneous networks. SHVC is the latest scalable video coding standard based on the HEVC standard. To improve enhancement layer coding efficiency, inter-layer prediction including texture and motion information generated from the base layer is used for enhancement layer coding. However, the overall performance of the SHVC reference encoder is not fully optimized because rate-distortion optimization (RDO) processes in the base and enhancement layers are independently considered. It is difficult to directly extend the existing joint-layer optimization methods to SHVC due to the complicated coding tree block splitting decisions and in-loop filtering process (e.g., deblocking and sample adaptive offset (SAO) filtering) in HEVC. To solve those problems, a joint-layer optimization method is proposed by adjusting the quantization parameter (QP) to optimally allocate the bit resource between layers. Furthermore, to make more proper resource allocation, the proposed method also considers the viewing probability of base and enhancement layers according to packet loss rate. Based on the viewing probability, a novel joint-layer RD cost function is proposed for joint-layer RDO encoding. The QP values of those coding tree units (CTUs) belonging to lower layers referenced by higher layers are decreased accordingly, and the QP values of those remaining CTUs are increased to keep total bits unchanged. Finally the QP values with minimal joint-layer RD cost are selected to match the viewing probability. The proposed method was applied to the third temporal level (TL-3) pictures in the Random Access configuration. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed joint-layer optimization method can improve coding performance by 1.3% for these TL-3 pictures compared to the SHVC reference encoder without joint-layer optimization.

Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.

PubMed

Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie

2017-07-01

For dose-response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta-Poisson model is a two-parameter mechanistic dose-response model with parameters α>0 and β>0, which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose-response model PI(d)=1-(1+dβ)-α is an approximate formula for the exact beta-Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions α<β and β>1, issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance. Consequently, this study proposes a probability measure Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) as a validity measure (r is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution; α̂ and β̂ are the maximum likelihood estimates of α and β in the approximate model); and the constraint conditions β̂>(22α̂)0.50 for 0.02<α̂<2 as a rule of thumb to ensure an accurate approximation (e.g., Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂) >0.99) . This validity measure and rule of thumb were validated by application to all the completed beta-Poisson models (related to 85 data sets) from the QMRA community portal (QMRA Wiki). The results showed that the higher the probability Pr(0 < r < 1 | α̂, β̂), the better the approximation. The results further showed that, among the total 85 models examined, 68 models were identified as valid approximate model applications, which all had a near perfect match to the corresponding exact beta-Poisson model dose-response curve. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Correcting Classifiers for Sample Selection Bias in Two-Phase Case-Control Studies

PubMed Central

Theis, Fabian J.

2017-01-01

Epidemiological studies often utilize stratified data in which rare outcomes or exposures are artificially enriched. This design can increase precision in association tests but distorts predictions when applying classifiers on nonstratified data. Several methods correct for this so-called sample selection bias, but their performance remains unclear especially for machine learning classifiers. With an emphasis on two-phase case-control studies, we aim to assess which corrections to perform in which setting and to obtain methods suitable for machine learning techniques, especially the random forest. We propose two new resampling-based methods to resemble the original data and covariance structure: stochastic inverse-probability oversampling and parametric inverse-probability bagging. We compare all techniques for the random forest and other classifiers, both theoretically and on simulated and real data. Empirical results show that the random forest profits from only the parametric inverse-probability bagging proposed by us. For other classifiers, correction is mostly advantageous, and methods perform uniformly. We discuss consequences of inappropriate distribution assumptions and reason for different behaviors between the random forest and other classifiers. In conclusion, we provide guidance for choosing correction methods when training classifiers on biased samples. For random forests, our method outperforms state-of-the-art procedures if distribution assumptions are roughly fulfilled. We provide our implementation in the R package sambia. PMID:29312464

Automated side-chain model building and sequence assignment by template matching.

PubMed

Terwilliger, Thomas C

2003-01-01

An algorithm is described for automated building of side chains in an electron-density map once a main-chain model is built and for alignment of the protein sequence to the map. The procedure is based on a comparison of electron density at the expected side-chain positions with electron-density templates. The templates are constructed from average amino-acid side-chain densities in 574 refined protein structures. For each contiguous segment of main chain, a matrix with entries corresponding to an estimate of the probability that each of the 20 amino acids is located at each position of the main-chain model is obtained. The probability that this segment corresponds to each possible alignment with the sequence of the protein is estimated using a Bayesian approach and high-confidence matches are kept. Once side-chain identities are determined, the most probable rotamer for each side chain is built into the model. The automated procedure has been implemented in the RESOLVE software. Combined with automated main-chain model building, the procedure produces a preliminary model suitable for refinement and extension by an experienced crystallographer.

Concurrent performance in a three-alternative choice situation: response allocation in a Rock/Paper/Scissors game.

PubMed

Kangas, Brian D; Berry, Meredith S; Cassidy, Rachel N; Dallery, Jesse; Vaidya, Manish; Hackenberg, Timothy D

2009-10-01

Adult human subjects engaged in a simulated Rock/Paper/Scissors game against a computer opponent. The computer opponent's responses were determined by programmed probabilities that differed across 10 blocks of 100 trials each. Response allocation in Experiment 1 was well described by a modified version of the generalized matching equation, with undermatching observed in all subjects. To assess the effects of instructions on response allocation, accurate probability-related information on how the computer was programmed to respond was provided to subjects in Experiment 2. Five of 6 subjects played the counter response of the computer's dominant programmed response near-exclusively (e.g., subjects played paper almost exclusively if the probability of rock was high), resulting in minor overmatching, and higher reinforcement rates relative to Experiment 1. On the whole, the study shows that the generalized matching law provides a good description of complex human choice in a gaming context, and illustrates a promising set of laboratory methods and analytic techniques that capture important features of human choice outside the laboratory.

Semantic priming in the lexical decision task: roles of prospective prime-generated expectancies and retrospective semantic matching.

PubMed

Neely, J H; Keefe, D E; Ross, K L

1989-11-01

In semantic priming paradigms for lexical decisions, the probability that a word target is semantically related to its prime (the relatedness proportion) has been confounded with the probability that a target is a nonword, given that it is unrelated to its prime (the nonword ratio). This study unconfounded these two probabilities in a lexical decision task with category names as primes and with high- and low-dominance exemplars as targets. Semantic priming for high-dominance exemplars was modulated by the relatedness proportion and, to a lesser degree, by the nonword ratio. However, the nonword ratio exerted a stronger influence than did the relatedness proportion on semantic priming for low-dominance exemplars and on the nonword facilitation effect (i.e., the superiority in performance for nonword targets that follow a category name rather than a neutral XXX prime). These results suggest that semantic priming for lexical decisions is affected by both a prospective prime-generated expectancy, modulated by the relatedness proportion, and a retrospective target/prime semantic matching process, modulated by the nonword ratio.

Gossip in Random Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malarz, K.; Szvetelszky, Z.; Szekf, B.; Kulakowski, K.

2006-11-01

We consider the average probability X of being informed on a gossip in a given social network. The network is modeled within the random graph theory of Erd{õ}s and Rényi. In this theory, a network is characterized by two parameters: the size N and the link probability p. Our experimental data suggest three levels of social inclusion of friendship. The critical value pc, for which half of agents are informed, scales with the system size as N-gamma with gamma approx 0.68. Computer simulations show that the probability X varies with p as a sigmoidal curve. Influence of the correlations between neighbors is also evaluated: with increasing clustering coefficient C, X decreases.

An adaptive clustering algorithm for image matching based on corner feature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhe; Dong, Min; Mu, Xiaomin; Wang, Song

2018-04-01

The traditional image matching algorithm always can not balance the real-time and accuracy better, to solve the problem, an adaptive clustering algorithm for image matching based on corner feature is proposed in this paper. The method is based on the similarity of the matching pairs of vector pairs, and the adaptive clustering is performed on the matching point pairs. Harris corner detection is carried out first, the feature points of the reference image and the perceived image are extracted, and the feature points of the two images are first matched by Normalized Cross Correlation (NCC) function. Then, using the improved algorithm proposed in this paper, the matching results are clustered to reduce the ineffective operation and improve the matching speed and robustness. Finally, the Random Sample Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is used to match the matching points after clustering. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively eliminate the most wrong matching points while the correct matching points are retained, and improve the accuracy of RANSAC matching, reduce the computation load of whole matching process at the same time.

Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Dale L; Fang, Xiangming; Mazumdar, Soumya; Rushton, Gerard

2007-01-10

The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km) outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m) than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m). The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

Combined use of ESI-QqTOF-MS and ESI-QqTOF-MS/MS with mass-spectral library search for qualitative analysis of drugs.

PubMed

Pavlic, Marion; Libiseller, Kathrin; Oberacher, Herbert

2006-09-01

The potential of the combined use of ESI-QqTOF-MS and ESI-QqTOF-MS/MS with mass-spectral library search for the identification of therapeutic and illicit drugs has been evaluated. Reserpine was used for standardizing experimental conditions and for characterization of the performance of the applied mass spectrometric system. Experiments revealed that because of the mass accuracy, the stability of calibration, and the reproducibility of fragmentation, the QqTOF mass spectrometer is an appropriate platform for establishment of a tandem-mass-spectral library. Three-hundred and nineteen substances were used as reference samples to build the spectral library. For each reference compound, product-ion spectra were acquired at ten different collision-energy values between 5 eV and 50 eV. For identification of unknown compounds, a library search algorithm was developed. The closeness of matching between a measured product-ion spectrum and a spectrum stored in the library was characterized by a value called "match probability", which took into account the number of matched fragment ions, the number of fragment ions observed in the two spectra, and the sum of the intensity differences calculated for matching fragments. A large value for the match probability indicated a close match between the measured and the reference spectrum. A unique feature of the library search algorithm-an implemented spectral purification option-enables characterization of multi-contributor fragment-ion spectra. With the aid of this software feature, substances comprising only 1.0% of the total amount of binary mixtures were unequivocally assigned, in addition to the isobaric main contributors. The spectral library was successfully applied to the characterization of 39 forensic casework samples.

Practical relevance of pattern uniqueness in forensic science.

PubMed

Jayaprakash, Paul T

2013-09-10

Uniqueness being unprovable, it has recently been argued that individualization in forensic science is irrelevant and, probability, as applied for DNA profiles, should be applied for all identifications. Critiques against uniqueness have omitted physical matching, a realistic and tangible individualization that supports uniqueness. Describing case examples illustrating pattern matches including physical matching, it is indicated that individualizations are practically relevant for forensic science as they establish facts on a definitive basis providing firm leads benefitting criminal investigation. As a tenet of forensic identification, uniqueness forms a fundamental paradigm relevant for individualization. Evidence on the indeterministic and stochastic causal pathways of characteristics in patterns available in the related fields of science sufficiently supports the proposition of uniqueness. Characteristics involved in physical matching and matching achieved in patterned evidence existing in the state of nature are not events amenable for counting; instead these are ensemble of visible units occupying the entire pattern area stretching the probability of re-occurrence of a verisimilitude pattern into infinity offering epistemic support to uniqueness. Observational methods are as respectable as instrumental or statistical methods since they are capable of generating results that are tangible and obviously valid as in physical matching. Applying the probabilistic interpretation used for DNA profiles to the other patterns would be unbefitting since these two are disparate, the causal pathways of the events, the loci, in the manipulated DNA profiles being determinable. While uniqueness enables individualizations, it does not vouch for eliminating errors. Instead of dismissing uniqueness and individualization, accepting errors as human or system failures and seeking remedial measures would benefit forensic science practice and criminal investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the inter-instrument and the inter-laboratory transferability of a tandem mass spectral reference library: 2. Optimization and characterization of the search algorithm.

PubMed

Oberacher, Herbert; Pavlic, Marion; Libiseller, Kathrin; Schubert, Birthe; Sulyok, Michael; Schuhmacher, Rainer; Csaszar, Edina; Köfeler, Harald C

2009-04-01

A sophisticated matching algorithm developed for highly efficient identity search within tandem mass spectral libraries is presented. For the optimization of the search procedure a collection of 410 tandem mass spectra corresponding to 22 compounds was used. The spectra were acquired in three different laboratories on four different instruments. The following types of tandem mass spectrometric instruments were used: quadrupole-quadrupole-time-of-flight (QqTOF), quadrupole-quadrupole-linear ion trap (QqLIT), quadrupole-quadrupole-quadrupole (QqQ), and linear ion trap-Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer (LIT-FTICR). The obtained spectra were matched to an established MS/MS-spectral library that contained 3759 MS/MS-spectra corresponding to 402 different reference compounds. All 22 test compounds were part of the library. A dynamic intensity cut-off, the search for neutral losses, and optimization of the formula used to calculate the match probability were shown to significantly enhance the performance of the presented library search approach. With the aid of these features the average number of correct assignments was increased to 98%. For statistical evaluation of the match reliability the set of fragment ion spectra was extended with 300 spectra corresponding to 100 compounds not included in the reference library. Performance was checked with the aid of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Using the magnitude of the match probability as well as the precursor ion mass as benchmarks to rate the obtained top hit, overall correct classification of a compound being included or not included in the mass spectrometric library, was obtained in more than 95% of cases clearly indicating a high predictive accuracy of the established matching procedure. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Do Pigeons Prefer Information in the Absence of Differential Reinforcement?

PubMed Central

Zentall, Thomas R.; Stagner, Jessica P.

2012-01-01

Prior research indicates that pigeons do not prefer an alternative that provides a sample (for matching-to-sample) over an alternative that does not provide a sample (i.e., there is no indication of which comparison stimulus is correct). However, Zentall and Stagner (2010) showed that when delay of reinforcement was controlled, pigeons had a strong preference for matching over pseudo-matching (there was a sample but it did not indicate which comparison stimulus was correct). Experiment 1 of the present study replicated and extended the results of the Zentall and Stagner study by including an identity relation between the sample and one of the comparison stimuli in both the matching and pseudo-matching tasks. In Experiment 2, when we asked if the pigeons would still prefer matching if we equated the two tasks for probability of reinforcement, we found no systematic preference for matching over pseudo-matching. Thus, it appears that in the absence of differential reinforcement, the information provided by a sample that signals which of the two comparison stimuli is correct is insufficient to produce a preference for that alternative. PMID:22367755

A Statistical Framework for Microbial Source Attribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Velsko, S P; Allen, J E; Cunningham, C T

2009-04-28

This report presents a general approach to inferring transmission and source relationships among microbial isolates from their genetic sequences. The outbreak transmission graph (also called the transmission tree or transmission network) is the fundamental structure which determines the statistical distributions relevant to source attribution. The nodes of this graph are infected individuals or aggregated sub-populations of individuals in which transmitted bacteria or viruses undergo clonal expansion, leading to a genetically heterogeneous population. Each edge of the graph represents a transmission event in which one or a small number of bacteria or virions infects another node thus increasing the size ofmore » the transmission network. Recombination and re-assortment events originate in nodes which are common to two distinct networks. In order to calculate the probability that one node was infected by another, given the observed genetic sequences of microbial isolates sampled from them, we require two fundamental probability distributions. The first is the probability of obtaining the observed mutational differences between two isolates given that they are separated by M steps in a transmission network. The second is the probability that two nodes sampled randomly from an outbreak transmission network are separated by M transmission events. We show how these distributions can be obtained from the genetic sequences of isolates obtained by sampling from past outbreaks combined with data from contact tracing studies. Realistic examples are drawn from the SARS outbreak of 2003, the FMDV outbreak in Great Britain in 2001, and HIV transmission cases. The likelihood estimators derived in this report, and the underlying probability distribution functions required to calculate them possess certain compelling general properties in the context of microbial forensics. These include the ability to quantify the significance of a sequence 'match' or 'mismatch' between two isolates; the ability to capture non-intuitive effects of network structure on inferential power, including the 'small world' effect; the insensitivity of inferences to uncertainties in the underlying distributions; and the concept of rescaling, i.e. ability to collapse sub-networks into single nodes and examine transmission inferences on the rescaled network.« less

A New Random Walk for Replica Detection in WSNs.

PubMed

Aalsalem, Mohammed Y; Khan, Wazir Zada; Saad, N M; Hossain, Md Shohrab; Atiquzzaman, Mohammed; Khan, Muhammad Khurram

2016-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are vulnerable to Node Replication attacks or Clone attacks. Among all the existing clone detection protocols in WSNs, RAWL shows the most promising results by employing Simple Random Walk (SRW). More recently, RAND outperforms RAWL by incorporating Network Division with SRW. Both RAND and RAWL have used SRW for random selection of witness nodes which is problematic because of frequently revisiting the previously passed nodes that leads to longer delays, high expenditures of energy with lower probability that witness nodes intersect. To circumvent this problem, we propose to employ a new kind of constrained random walk, namely Single Stage Memory Random Walk and present a distributed technique called SSRWND (Single Stage Memory Random Walk with Network Division). In SSRWND, single stage memory random walk is combined with network division aiming to decrease the communication and memory costs while keeping the detection probability higher. Through intensive simulations it is verified that SSRWND guarantees higher witness node security with moderate communication and memory overheads. SSRWND is expedient for security oriented application fields of WSNs like military and medical.

A New Random Walk for Replica Detection in WSNs

PubMed Central

Aalsalem, Mohammed Y.; Saad, N. M.; Hossain, Md. Shohrab; Atiquzzaman, Mohammed; Khan, Muhammad Khurram

2016-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are vulnerable to Node Replication attacks or Clone attacks. Among all the existing clone detection protocols in WSNs, RAWL shows the most promising results by employing Simple Random Walk (SRW). More recently, RAND outperforms RAWL by incorporating Network Division with SRW. Both RAND and RAWL have used SRW for random selection of witness nodes which is problematic because of frequently revisiting the previously passed nodes that leads to longer delays, high expenditures of energy with lower probability that witness nodes intersect. To circumvent this problem, we propose to employ a new kind of constrained random walk, namely Single Stage Memory Random Walk and present a distributed technique called SSRWND (Single Stage Memory Random Walk with Network Division). In SSRWND, single stage memory random walk is combined with network division aiming to decrease the communication and memory costs while keeping the detection probability higher. Through intensive simulations it is verified that SSRWND guarantees higher witness node security with moderate communication and memory overheads. SSRWND is expedient for security oriented application fields of WSNs like military and medical. PMID:27409082

An evaluation of the genetic-matched pair study design using genome-wide SNP data from the European population.

PubMed

Lu, Timothy Tehua; Lao, Oscar; Nothnagel, Michael; Junge, Olaf; Freitag-Wolf, Sandra; Caliebe, Amke; Balascakova, Miroslava; Bertranpetit, Jaume; Bindoff, Laurence Albert; Comas, David; Holmlund, Gunilla; Kouvatsi, Anastasia; Macek, Milan; Mollet, Isabelle; Nielsen, Finn; Parson, Walther; Palo, Jukka; Ploski, Rafal; Sajantila, Antti; Tagliabracci, Adriano; Gether, Ulrik; Werge, Thomas; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André Gerardus; Gieger, Christian; Wichmann, Heinz-Erich; Ruether, Andreas; Schreiber, Stefan; Becker, Christian; Nürnberg, Peter; Nelson, Matthew Roberts; Kayser, Manfred; Krawczak, Michael

2009-07-01

Genetic matching potentially provides a means to alleviate the effects of incomplete Mendelian randomization in population-based gene-disease association studies. We therefore evaluated the genetic-matched pair study design on the basis of genome-wide SNP data (309,790 markers; Affymetrix GeneChip Human Mapping 500K Array) from 2457 individuals, sampled at 23 different recruitment sites across Europe. Using pair-wise identity-by-state (IBS) as a matching criterion, we tried to derive a subset of markers that would allow identification of the best overall matching (BOM) partner for a given individual, based on the IBS status for the subset alone. However, our results suggest that, by following this approach, the prediction accuracy is only notably improved by the first 20 markers selected, and increases proportionally to the marker number thereafter. Furthermore, in a considerable proportion of cases (76.0%), the BOM of a given individual, based on the complete marker set, came from a different recruitment site than the individual itself. A second marker set, specifically selected for ancestry sensitivity using singular value decomposition, performed even more poorly and was no more capable of predicting the BOM than randomly chosen subsets. This leads us to conclude that, at least in Europe, the utility of the genetic-matched pair study design depends critically on the availability of comprehensive genotype information for both cases and controls.

Confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random-effects meta-analysis using generalised heterogeneity statistics: should we use unequal tails?

PubMed

Jackson, Dan; Bowden, Jack

2016-09-07

Confidence intervals for the between study variance are useful in random-effects meta-analyses because they quantify the uncertainty in the corresponding point estimates. Methods for calculating these confidence intervals have been developed that are based on inverting hypothesis tests using generalised heterogeneity statistics. Whilst, under the random effects model, these new methods furnish confidence intervals with the correct coverage, the resulting intervals are usually very wide, making them uninformative. We discuss a simple strategy for obtaining 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance with a markedly reduced width, whilst retaining the nominal coverage probability. Specifically, we consider the possibility of using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics with unequal tail probabilities, where the tail probability used to compute the upper bound is greater than 2.5 %. This idea is assessed using four real examples and a variety of simulation studies. Supporting analytical results are also obtained. Our results provide evidence that using unequal tail probabilities can result in shorter 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance. We also show some further results for a real example that illustrates how shorter confidence intervals for the between-study variance can be useful when performing sensitivity analyses for the average effect, which is usually the parameter of primary interest. We conclude that using unequal tail probabilities when computing 95 % confidence intervals for the between-study variance, when using methods based on generalised heterogeneity statistics, can result in shorter confidence intervals. We suggest that those who find the case for using unequal tail probabilities convincing should use the '1-4 % split', where greater tail probability is allocated to the upper confidence bound. The 'width-optimal' interval that we present deserves further investigation.

Bias reduction in repeated-measures observational studies by the use of propensity score: the case of enteral sedation for critically ill patients.

PubMed

Umbrello, Michele; Mistraletti, Giovanni; Corbella, Davide; Cigada, Marco; Salini, Silvia; Morabito, Alberto; Iapichino, Gaetano

2012-12-01

Within the evidence-based medicine paradigm, randomized controlled trials represent the "gold standard" to produce reliable evidence. Indeed, planning and implementing randomized controlled trials in critical care medicine presents limitations because of intrinsic and structural problems. As a consequence, observational studies still occur frequently. In these cases, propensity score (PS) (probability of receiving a treatment conditional on observed covariates) is an increasingly used technique to adjust the results. Few studies addressed the specific issue of a PS correction of repeated-measures designs. Three techniques for correcting the analysis of nonrandomized designs (matching, stratification, regression adjustment) are presented in a tutorial form and applied to a real case study: the comparison between intravenous and enteral sedative therapy in the intensive care unit setting. After showing the results before and after the use of PS, we suggest that such a tool allows to partially overcoming the bias associated with the observational nature of the study. It permits to correct the estimates for any observed covariate, while unobserved confounders cannot be controlled for. Propensity score represents a useful additional tool to estimate the effects of treatments in nonrandomized studies. In the case study, an enteral sedation approach was equally effective to an intravenous regime, allowing for a lower level of sedation and spare of resources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Violence, abuse, alcohol and drug use, and sexual behaviors in street children of Greater Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt.

PubMed

Nada, Khaled H; Suliman, El Daw A

2010-07-01

To measure the prevalence of HIV/AIDS risk behaviors and related factors in a large, probability-based sample of boys and girls aged 12-17 years living on the streets of Egypt's largest urban centers of Greater Cairo and Alexandria. Time-location sampling (TLS) was used to recruit a cross-sectional sample of street children. Procedures entailed using key informants and field observation to create a sampling frame of locations at predetermined time intervals of the day, where street children congregate in the two cities, selecting a random sample of time-locations from the complete list, and intercepting children in the selected time-locations to assess eligibility and conduct interviews. Interviews gathered basic demographic information, life events on the street (including violence, abuse, forced sex), sexual and drug use behaviors, and HIV/AIDS knowledge. A total of 857 street children were enrolled in the two cities, with an age, sex, and time-location composition matching the sampling frame. The majority of these children had faced harassment or abuse (93%) typically by police and other street children, had used drugs (62%), and, among the older adolescents, were sexually active (67%). Among the sexually active 15-17-year-olds, most reported multiple partners (54%) and never using condoms (52%). Most girls (53% in Greater Cairo and 90% in Alexandria) had experienced sexual abuse. The majority of street children experienced more than one of these risks. Overlaps with populations at highest risk for HIV were substantial, namely men who have sex with men, commercial sex workers, and injection drug users. Our study using a randomized TLS approach produced a rigorous, diverse, probability-based sample of street children and documented very high levels of multiple concurrent risks. Our findings strongly advocate for multiple services including those addressing HIV and STI prevention and care, substance use, shelters, and sensitization of authorities to the plight of street children in Egypt.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of dose-dense versus standard intravenous chemotherapy for ovarian cancer: An economic analysis of results from the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Seagle, Brandon-Luke L; Shahabi, Shohreh

2017-04-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of dose-dense versus standard intravenous adjuvant chemotherapy for ovarian cancer using results from the no-bevacizumab cohort of the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 (GOG-262) randomized controlled trial, which reported a smaller absolute progression-free survival (PFS) benefit than the prior Japanese trial. A three-state Markov decision model from a healthcare system perspective with a 21day cycle length and 28month time-horizon was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) values per progression-free life-year saved (PFLYS) using results from GOG-262. Costs of chemotherapy, complications, and surveillance were from Medicare or institutional data. PFS, discontinuation, and complication rates were from GOG-262. Time-dependent transition probabilities and within-cycle corrections were used. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The model produces standard and dose-dense cohorts with 84.3% and 68.3% progression event proportions at 28months, matching GOG-262 rates at the trial's median follow-up. With a median PFS of 10.3months after standard chemotherapy and a hazard ratio for progression of 0.62 after dose-dense therapy, the ICER for dose-dense chemotherapy is $8074.25 (95% confidence interval: $7615.97-$10,207.16) per PFLYS. ICER estimates are sensitive only to the hazard ratio estimate but do not exceed $100,000 per PFLYS. 99.8% of ICER estimates met a more stringent willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per PFLYS. The willingness-to-pay value at which there is a 90% probability of dose-dense treatment being cost-effective is $12,000 per PFLYS. Dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy is robustly cost-effective for advanced ovarian cancer from a healthcare system perspective based on results from GOG-262. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of ground state in random bipartite matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Gui-Yuan; Kong, Yi-Xiu; Liao, Hao; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2016-02-01

Bipartite matching problems emerge in many human social phenomena. In this paper, we study the ground state of the Gale-Shapley model, which is the most popular bipartite matching model. We apply the Kuhn-Munkres algorithm to compute the numerical ground state of the model. For the first time, we obtain the number of blocking pairs which is a measure of the system instability. We also show that the number of blocking pairs formed by each person follows a geometric distribution. Furthermore, we study how the connectivity in the bipartite matching problems influences the instability of the ground state.

Matching with Multiple Control Groups with Adjustment for Group Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Rubin, Donald B.

2008-01-01

When estimating causal effects from observational data, it is desirable to approximate a randomized experiment as closely as possible. This goal can often be achieved by choosing a subsample from the original control group that matches the treatment group on the distribution of the observed covariates. However, sometimes the original control group…

Unified nano-mechanics based probabilistic theory of quasibrittle and brittle structures: I. Strength, static crack growth, lifetime and scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Jia-Liang; Bažant, Zdeněk P.; Bazant, Martin Z.

2011-07-01

Engineering structures must be designed for an extremely low failure probability such as 10 -6, which is beyond the means of direct verification by histogram testing. This is not a problem for brittle or ductile materials because the type of probability distribution of structural strength is fixed and known, making it possible to predict the tail probabilities from the mean and variance. It is a problem, though, for quasibrittle materials for which the type of strength distribution transitions from Gaussian to Weibullian as the structure size increases. These are heterogeneous materials with brittle constituents, characterized by material inhomogeneities that are not negligible compared to the structure size. Examples include concrete, fiber composites, coarse-grained or toughened ceramics, rocks, sea ice, rigid foams and bone, as well as many materials used in nano- and microscale devices. This study presents a unified theory of strength and lifetime for such materials, based on activation energy controlled random jumps of the nano-crack front, and on the nano-macro multiscale transition of tail probabilities. Part I of this study deals with the case of monotonic and sustained (or creep) loading, and Part II with fatigue (or cyclic) loading. On the scale of the representative volume element of material, the probability distribution of strength has a Gaussian core onto which a remote Weibull tail is grafted at failure probability of the order of 10 -3. With increasing structure size, the Weibull tail penetrates into the Gaussian core. The probability distribution of static (creep) lifetime is related to the strength distribution by the power law for the static crack growth rate, for which a physical justification is given. The present theory yields a simple relation between the exponent of this law and the Weibull moduli for strength and lifetime. The benefit is that the lifetime distribution can be predicted from short-time tests of the mean size effect on strength and tests of the power law for the crack growth rate. The theory is shown to match closely numerous test data on strength and static lifetime of ceramics and concrete, and explains why their histograms deviate systematically from the straight line in Weibull scale. Although the present unified theory is built on several previous advances, new contributions are here made to address: (i) a crack in a disordered nano-structure (such as that of hydrated Portland cement), (ii) tail probability of a fiber bundle (or parallel coupling) model with softening elements, (iii) convergence of this model to the Gaussian distribution, (iv) the stress-life curve under constant load, and (v) a detailed random walk analysis of crack front jumps in an atomic lattice. The nonlocal behavior is captured in the present theory through the finiteness of the number of links in the weakest-link model, which explains why the mean size effect coincides with that of the previously formulated nonlocal Weibull theory. Brittle structures correspond to the large-size limit of the present theory. An important practical conclusion is that the safety factors for strength and tolerable minimum lifetime for large quasibrittle structures (e.g., concrete structures and composite airframes or ship hulls, as well as various micro-devices) should be calculated as a function of structure size and geometry.

Data-driven probability concentration and sampling on manifold

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr; Ghanem, R., E-mail: ghanem@usc.edu

2016-09-15

A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a dataset of observations of this vector. The probability distribution of this random vector, while a priori not known, is presumed to be concentrated on an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. A random matrix is introduced whose columns are independent copies of the random vector and for which the number of columns is the number of data points in the dataset. The approach is based on the use of (i) the multidimensional kernel-density estimation methodmore » for estimating the probability distribution of the random matrix, (ii) a MCMC method for generating realizations for the random matrix, (iii) the diffusion-maps approach for discovering and characterizing the geometry and the structure of the dataset, and (iv) a reduced-order representation of the random matrix, which is constructed using the diffusion-maps vectors associated with the first eigenvalues of the transition matrix relative to the given dataset. The convergence aspects of the proposed methodology are analyzed and a numerical validation is explored through three applications of increasing complexity. The proposed method is found to be robust to noise levels and data complexity as well as to the intrinsic dimension of data and the size of experimental datasets. Both the methodology and the underlying mathematical framework presented in this paper contribute new capabilities and perspectives at the interface of uncertainty quantification, statistical data analysis, stochastic modeling and associated statistical inverse problems.« less

Sino-implant (II) - a levonorgestrel-releasing two-rod implant: systematic review of the randomized controlled trials

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus J.; Lopez, Laureen M.; Grimes, David A.; Cheng, Linan; Shelton, Jim; Trussell, James; Farley, Timothy M.M.; Dorflinger, Laneta

2013-01-01

Background Sino-implant (II) is a subdermal contraceptive implant manufactured in China. This two-rod levonorgestrel-releasing implant has the same amount of active ingredient (150 mg levonorgestrel) and mechanism of action as the widely available contraceptive implant Jadelle. We examined randomized controlled trials of Sino-implant (II) for effectiveness and side effects. Study design We searched electronic databases for studies of Sino-implant (II), and then restricted our review to randomized controlled trials. The primary outcome of this review was pregnancy. Results Four randomized trials with a total of 15,943 women assigned to Sino-implant (II) had first-year probabilities of pregnancy ranging from 0.0% to 0.1%. Cumulative probabilities of pregnancy during the four years of the product's approved duration of use were 0.9% and 1.06% in the two trials that presented date for four-year use. Five-year cumulative probabilities of pregnancy ranged from 0.7% to 2.1%. In one trial, the cumulative probability of pregnancy more than doubled during the fifth year (from 0.9% to 2.1%), which may be why the implant is approved for four years of use in China. Five-year cumulative probabilities of discontinuation due to menstrual problems ranged from 12.5% to 15.5% for Sino-implant (II). Conclusions Sino-implant (II) is one of the most effective contraceptives available today. These available clinical data, combined with independent laboratory testing, and the knowledge that 7 million women have used this method since 1994, support the safety and effectiveness of Sino-implant (II). The lower cost of Sino-implant (II) compared with other subdermal implants could improve access to implants in resource-constrained settings. PMID:20159174

Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew W; Johnson, Patrick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Sweeney, Mary M

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior.

Delay and Probability Discounting of Sexual and Monetary Outcomes in Individuals with Cocaine Use Disorders and Matched Controls

PubMed Central

Johnson, Matthew W.; Johnson, Patrick S.; Herrmann, Evan S.; Sweeney, Mary M.

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event’s value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior. PMID:26017273

MatchingLand, geospatial data testbed for the assessment of matching methods.

PubMed

Xavier, Emerson M A; Ariza-López, Francisco J; Ureña-Cámara, Manuel A

2017-12-05

This article presents datasets prepared with the aim of helping the evaluation of geospatial matching methods for vector data. These datasets were built up from mapping data produced by official Spanish mapping agencies. The testbed supplied encompasses the three geometry types: point, line and area. Initial datasets were submitted to geometric transformations in order to generate synthetic datasets. These transformations represent factors that might influence the performance of geospatial matching methods, like the morphology of linear or areal features, systematic transformations, and random disturbance over initial data. We call our 11 GiB benchmark data 'MatchingLand' and we hope it can be useful for the geographic information science research community.

Modeling Achievement Trajectories when Attrition Is Informative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feldman, Betsy J.; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

2012-01-01

In longitudinal education studies, assuming that dropout and missing data occur completely at random is often unrealistic. When the probability of dropout depends on covariates and observed responses (called "missing at random" [MAR]), or on values of responses that are missing (called "informative" or "not missing at random" [NMAR]),…

An extended car-following model considering random safety distance with different probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jufeng; Sun, Fengxin; Cheng, Rongjun; Ge, Hongxia; Wei, Qi

2018-02-01

Because of the difference in vehicle type or driving skill, the driving strategy is not exactly the same. The driving speeds of the different vehicles may be different for the same headway. Since the optimal velocity function is just determined by the safety distance besides the maximum velocity and headway, an extended car-following model accounting for random safety distance with different probabilities is proposed in this paper. The linear stable condition for this extended traffic model is obtained by using linear stability theory. Numerical simulations are carried out to explore the complex phenomenon resulting from multiple safety distance in the optimal velocity function. The cases of multiple types of safety distances selected with different probabilities are presented. Numerical results show that the traffic flow with multiple safety distances with different probabilities will be more unstable than that with single type of safety distance, and will result in more stop-and-go phenomena.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains.

PubMed

Melnik, S S; Usatenko, O V

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Decomposition of conditional probability for high-order symbolic Markov chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.

2017-07-01

The main goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the conditional probability function of random stationary ergodic symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. We elaborate on a decomposition procedure for the conditional probability function of sequences considered to be high-order Markov chains. We represent the conditional probability function as the sum of multilinear memory function monomials of different orders (from zero up to the chain order). This allows us to introduce a family of Markov chain models and to construct artificial sequences via a method of successive iterations, taking into account at each step increasingly high correlations among random elements. At weak correlations, the memory functions are uniquely expressed in terms of the high-order symbolic correlation functions. The proposed method fills the gap between two approaches, namely the likelihood estimation and the additive Markov chains. The obtained results may have applications for sequential approximation of artificial neural network training.

Indonesian name matching using machine learning supervised approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alifikri, Mohamad; Arif Bijaksana, Moch.

2018-03-01

Most existing name matching methods are developed for English language and so they cover the characteristics of this language. Up to this moment, there is no specific one has been designed and implemented for Indonesian names. The purpose of this thesis is to develop Indonesian name matching dataset as a contribution to academic research and to propose suitable feature set by utilizing combination of context of name strings and its permute-winkler score. Machine learning classification algorithms is taken as the method for performing name matching. Based on the experiments, by using tuned Random Forest algorithm and proposed features, there is an improvement of matching performance by approximately 1.7% and it is able to reduce until 70% misclassification result of the state of the arts methods. This improving performance makes the matching system more effective and reduces the risk of misclassified matches.

Realistic neurons can compute the operations needed by quantum probability theory and other vector symbolic architectures.

PubMed

Stewart, Terrence C; Eliasmith, Chris

2013-06-01

Quantum probability (QP) theory can be seen as a type of vector symbolic architecture (VSA): mental states are vectors storing structured information and manipulated using algebraic operations. Furthermore, the operations needed by QP match those in other VSAs. This allows existing biologically realistic neural models to be adapted to provide a mechanistic explanation of the cognitive phenomena described in the target article by Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B).

Random Variables: Simulations and Surprising Connections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Robert J.; Tomlinson, Stephen

1999-01-01

Features activities for advanced second-year algebra students in grades 11 and 12. Introduces three random variables and considers an empirical and theoretical probability for each. Uses coins, regular dice, decahedral dice, and calculators. (ASK)

A Probabilistic Design Method Applied to Smart Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1995-01-01

A probabilistic design method is described and demonstrated using a smart composite wing. Probabilistic structural design incorporates naturally occurring uncertainties including those in constituent (fiber/matrix) material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and control-related parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity factors are computed to identify those parameters that have a great influence on a specific structural reliability. Two performance criteria are used to demonstrate this design methodology. The first criterion requires that the actuated angle at the wing tip be bounded by upper and lower limits at a specified reliability. The second criterion requires that the probability of ply damage due to random impact load be smaller than an assigned value. When the relationship between reliability improvement and the sensitivity factors is assessed, the results show that a reduction in the scatter of the random variable with the largest sensitivity factor (absolute value) provides the lowest failure probability. An increase in the mean of the random variable with a negative sensitivity factor will reduce the failure probability. Therefore, the design can be improved by controlling or selecting distribution parameters associated with random variables. This can be implemented during the manufacturing process to obtain maximum benefit with minimum alterations.

A Probability Based Approach for the Allocation of Player Draft Selections in Australian Rules Football

PubMed Central

Anthony, Bedford; Schembri, Adrian J.

2006-01-01

Australian Rules Football, governed by the Australian Football League (AFL) is the most popular winter sport played in Australia. Like North American team based leagues such as the NFL, NBA and NHL, the AFL uses a draft system for rookie players to join a team’s list. The existing method of allocating draft selections in the AFL is simply based on the reverse order of each team’s finishing position for that season, with teams winning less than or equal to 5 regular season matches obtaining an additional early round priority draft pick. Much criticism has been levelled at the existing system since it rewards losing teams and does not encourage poorly performing teams to win matches once their season is effectively over. We propose a probability-based system that allocates a score based on teams that win ‘unimportant’ matches (akin to Carl Morris’ definition of importance). We base the calculation of ‘unimportance’ on the likelihood of a team making the final eight following each round of the season. We then investigate a variety of approaches based on the ‘unimportance’ measure to derive a score for ‘unimportant’ and unlikely wins. We explore derivatives of this system, compare past draft picks with those obtained under our system, and discuss the attractiveness of teams knowing the draft reward for winning each match in a season. Key Points Draft choices are allocated using a probabilistic approach that rewards teams for winning unimportant matches. The method is based upon Carl Morris’ Importance and probabilistic calculations of making the finals. The importance of a match is calculated probabilistically to arrive at a DScore. Higher DScores are weighted towards teams winning unimportant matches which in turn lead to higher draft selections. Provides an alternative to current draft systems that are based on ‘losing to win’. PMID:24357945

Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching

PubMed Central

Kline, Jeffrey A; Johnson, Charles L; Pollack, Charles V; Diercks, Deborah B; Hollander, Judd E; Newgard, Craig D; Garvey, J Lee

2005-01-01

Background Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). Methods Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possible ACS. For attribute matching, a computer program identifies patients within the database who have the exact profile defined by clinician input of the eight attributes. The novel method was compared with the LRE for ability to produce PTP estimation <2% in a validation set of 8,120 patients evaluated for possible ACS and did not have ST segment elevation on ECG. 1,061 patients were excluded prior to validation analysis because of ST-segment elevation (713), missing data (77) or being lost to follow-up (271). Results In the validation set, attribute matching produced 267 unique PTP estimates [median PTP value 6%, 1st–3rd quartile 1–10%] compared with the LRE, which produced 96 unique PTP estimates [median 24%, 1st–3rd quartile 10–30%]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for the attribute matching curve and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.77) for LRE. The attribute matching system categorized 1,670 (24%, 95% CI = 23–25%) patients as having a PTP < 2.0%; 28 developed ACS (1.7% 95% CI = 1.1–2.4%). The LRE categorized 244 (4%, 95% CI = 3–4%) with PTP < 2.0%; four developed ACS (1.6%, 95% CI = 0.4–4.1%). Conclusion Attribute matching estimated a very low PTP for ACS in a significantly larger proportion of ED patients compared with a validated LRE. PMID:16095534

Probability Distributions for Random Quantum Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Kevin

Motivated by uncertainty quantification and inference of quantum information systems, in this work we draw connections between the notions of random quantum states and operations in quantum information with probability distributions commonly encountered in the field of orientation statistics. This approach identifies natural sample spaces and probability distributions upon these spaces that can be used in the analysis, simulation, and inference of quantum information systems. The theory of exponential families on Stiefel manifolds provides the appropriate generalization to the classical case. Furthermore, this viewpoint motivates a number of additional questions into the convex geometry of quantum operations relative to both the differential geometry of Stiefel manifolds as well as the information geometry of exponential families defined upon them. In particular, we draw on results from convex geometry to characterize which quantum operations can be represented as the average of a random quantum operation. This project was supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity via Department of Interior National Business Center Contract Number 2012-12050800010.

Low immunosuppressive burden after HLA-matched related or unrelated BMT using posttransplantation cyclophosphamide.

PubMed

Kanakry, Christopher G; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Kasamon, Yvette L; Zahurak, Marianna; Durakovic, Nadira; Furlong, Terry; Mielcarek, Marco; Medeot, Marta; Gojo, Ivana; Smith, B Douglas; Kanakry, Jennifer A; Borrello, Ivan M; Brodsky, Robert A; Gladstone, Douglas E; Huff, Carol Ann; Matsui, William H; Swinnen, Lode J; Cooke, Kenneth R; Ambinder, Richard F; Fuchs, Ephraim J; de Lima, Marcos J; Andersson, Borje S; Varadhan, Ravi; O'Donnell, Paul V; Jones, Richard J; Luznik, Leo

2017-03-09

The intensive and prolonged immunosuppressive therapy required to prevent or treat graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after allogeneic blood or marrow transplantation (alloBMT) puts patients at substantial risk for life-threatening infections, organ toxicity, and disease relapse. Posttransplantation cyclophosphamide (PTCy) can function as single-agent GVHD prophylaxis after myeloablative, HLA-matched related (MRD), or HLA-matched unrelated (MUD) donor T-cell-replete bone marrow allografting, obviating the need for additional prophylactic immunosuppression. However, patients who develop GVHD require supplemental treatment. We assessed the longitudinal requirement for immunosuppressive therapy in 339 patients treated with this transplantation platform: 247 receiving busulfan/cyclophosphamide (BuCy) conditioning (data collected retrospectively) and 92 receiving busulfan/fludarabine (BuFlu) conditioning (data collected prospectively). Approximately 50% of MRD patients and 30% of MUD patients never required immunosuppression beyond PTCy. In patients requiring further immunosuppression, typically only 1 to 2 agents were required, and the median durations of systemic pharmacologic immunosuppression for the BuCy MRD, BuFlu MRD, BuCy MUD, and BuFlu MUD groups all were 4.5 to 5 months. For these 4 groups, 1-year probabilities of being alive and off all systemic immunosuppression were 61%, 53%, 53%, and 51% and 3-year probabilities were 53%, 48%, 49%, and 56%, respectively. These data suggest that PTCy minimizes the global immunosuppressive burden experienced by patients undergoing HLA-matched alloBMT.

Modeling of chromosome intermingling by partially overlapping uniform random polygons.

PubMed

Blackstone, T; Scharein, R; Borgo, B; Varela, R; Diao, Y; Arsuaga, J

2011-03-01

During the early phase of the cell cycle the eukaryotic genome is organized into chromosome territories. The geometry of the interface between any two chromosomes remains a matter of debate and may have important functional consequences. The Interchromosomal Network model (introduced by Branco and Pombo) proposes that territories intermingle along their periphery. In order to partially quantify this concept we here investigate the probability that two chromosomes form an unsplittable link. We use the uniform random polygon as a crude model for chromosome territories and we model the interchromosomal network as the common spatial region of two overlapping uniform random polygons. This simple model allows us to derive some rigorous mathematical results as well as to perform computer simulations easily. We find that the probability that one uniform random polygon of length n that partially overlaps a fixed polygon is bounded below by 1 − O(1/√n). We use numerical simulations to estimate the dependence of the linking probability of two uniform random polygons (of lengths n and m, respectively) on the amount of overlapping. The degree of overlapping is parametrized by a parameter [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] indicates no overlapping and [Formula: see text] indicates total overlapping. We propose that this dependence relation may be modeled as f (ε, m, n) = [Formula: see text]. Numerical evidence shows that this model works well when [Formula: see text] is relatively large (ε ≥ 0.5). We then use these results to model the data published by Branco and Pombo and observe that for the amount of overlapping observed experimentally the URPs have a non-zero probability of forming an unsplittable link.

Anti-hypertensive treatment prolongs tPA door-to-treatment time: Secondary analysis of the INSTINCT trial.

PubMed Central

Skolarus, Lesli E.; Scott, Phillip A.; Burke, James F.; Adelman, Eric E.; Frederiksen, Shirley M.; Kade, Allison M.; Kalbfleisch, Jack D.; Ford, Andria L.; Meurer, William J.

2012-01-01

Background/Purpose Identifying modifiable tPA treatment delays may improve stroke outcomes. We hypothesized that pre-thrombolytic anti-hypertensive treatment (AHT) may prolong door-to-treatment time (DTT). Methods Analysis of consecutive tPA-treated patients at 24 randomly selected community hospitals in the INSTINCT trial between 2007-2010. DTTs among stroke patients who received pre-thrombolytic AHT were compared to those that did not receive pre-thrombolytic AHT. We then calculated a propensity score for the probability of receiving pre-thrombolytic AHT using logistic regression with demographics, stroke risk factors, home medications, stroke severity (NIHSS), onset-to-door time, admission glucose, pretreatment blood pressure, EMS transport and location at time of stroke as independent variables. A paired t-test was performed to compare the DTTs between the propensity matched groups. Results Of 534 tPA treated stroke patients analyzed, 95 received pre-thrombolytic AHT. In the unmatched cohort, patients who received pre-thrombolytic AHT had a longer DTT (mean increase 9 minutes; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2-16 minutes) than patients who did not. After propensity matching, patients who received pre-thrombolytic AHT had a longer DTT (mean increase 10.4 minutes, 95% CI 1.9 - 18.8) than patients who did not receive pre-thrombolytic AHT. Conclusion Pre-thrombolytic AHT is associated with modest delays in DTT. This represents a potential target for quality improvement initiatives. Further research evaluating optimum pre-thrombolytic hypertension management is warranted. PMID:23033348

Antihypertensive treatment prolongs tissue plasminogen activator door-to-treatment time: secondary analysis of the INSTINCT trial.

PubMed

Skolarus, Lesli E; Scott, Phillip A; Burke, James F; Adelman, Eric E; Frederiksen, Shirley M; Kade, Allison M; Kalbfleisch, Jack D; Ford, Andria L; Meurer, William J

2012-12-01

Identifying modifiable tissue plasminogen activator treatment delays may improve stroke outcomes. We hypothesized that prethrombolytic antihypertensive treatment (AHT) may prolong door-to-treatment time (DTT). We performed an analysis of consecutive tissue plasminogen activator-treated patients at 24 randomly selected community hospitals in the Increasing Stroke Treatment through Interventional Behavior Change Tactics (INSTINCT) trial between 2007 and 2010. DTT among stroke patients who received prethrombolytic AHT were compared with those who did not receive prethrombolytic AHT. We then calculated a propensity score for the probability of receiving prethrombolytic AHT using logistic regression with demographics, stroke risk factors, home medications, stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale), onset-to-door time, admission glucose, pretreatment blood pressure, emergency medical service transport, and location at time of stroke as independent variables. A paired t test was performed to compare the DTT between the propensity-matched groups. Of 534 tissue plasminogen activator-treated stroke patients analyzed, 95 received prethrombolytic AHT. In the unmatched cohort, patients who received prethrombolytic AHT had a longer DTT (mean increase, 9 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 2-16 minutes) than patients who did not. After propensity matching, patients who received prethrombolytic AHT had a longer DTT (mean increase, 10.4 minutes; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-18.8) than patients who did not receive prethrombolytic AHT. Prethrombolytic AHT is associated with modest delays in DTT. This represents a potential target for quality-improvement initiatives. Further research evaluating optimum prethrombolytic hypertension management is warranted.

High-quality mtDNA control region sequences from 680 individuals sampled across the Netherlands to establish a national forensic mtDNA reference database.

PubMed

Chaitanya, Lakshmi; van Oven, Mannis; Brauer, Silke; Zimmermann, Bettina; Huber, Gabriela; Xavier, Catarina; Parson, Walther; de Knijff, Peter; Kayser, Manfred

2016-03-01

The use of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) for maternal lineage identification often marks the last resort when investigating forensic and missing-person cases involving highly degraded biological materials. As with all comparative DNA testing, a match between evidence and reference sample requires a statistical interpretation, for which high-quality mtDNA population frequency data are crucial. Here, we determined, under high quality standards, the complete mtDNA control-region sequences of 680 individuals from across the Netherlands sampled at 54 sites, covering the entire country with 10 geographic sub-regions. The complete mtDNA control region (nucleotide positions 16,024-16,569 and 1-576) was amplified with two PCR primers and sequenced with ten different sequencing primers using the EMPOP protocol. Haplotype diversity of the entire sample set was very high at 99.63% and, accordingly, the random-match probability was 0.37%. No population substructure within the Netherlands was detected with our dataset. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to determine mtDNA haplogroups. Inclusion of these high-quality data in the EMPOP database (accession number: EMP00666) will improve its overall data content and geographic coverage in the interest of all EMPOP users worldwide. Moreover, this dataset will serve as (the start of) a national reference database for mtDNA applications in forensic and missing person casework in the Netherlands. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The proposed 'concordance-statistic for benefit' provided a useful metric when modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.

PubMed

van Klaveren, David; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Serruys, Patrick W; Kent, David M

2018-02-01

Clinical prediction models that support treatment decisions are usually evaluated for their ability to predict the risk of an outcome rather than treatment benefit-the difference between outcome risk with vs. without therapy. We aimed to define performance metrics for a model's ability to predict treatment benefit. We analyzed data of the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial and of three recombinant tissue plasminogen activator trials. We assessed alternative prediction models with a conventional risk concordance-statistic (c-statistic) and a novel c-statistic for benefit. We defined observed treatment benefit by the outcomes in pairs of patients matched on predicted benefit but discordant for treatment assignment. The 'c-for-benefit' represents the probability that from two randomly chosen matched patient pairs with unequal observed benefit, the pair with greater observed benefit also has a higher predicted benefit. Compared to a model without treatment interactions, the SYNTAX score II had improved ability to discriminate treatment benefit (c-for-benefit 0.590 vs. 0.552), despite having similar risk discrimination (c-statistic 0.725 vs. 0.719). However, for the simplified stroke-thrombolytic predictive instrument (TPI) vs. the original stroke-TPI, the c-for-benefit (0.584 vs. 0.578) was similar. The proposed methodology has the potential to measure a model's ability to predict treatment benefit not captured with conventional performance metrics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possessions in a random series of team possessions from Norwegian professional soccer matches.

PubMed

Tenga, Albin; Holme, Ingar; Ronglan, Lars Tore; Bahr, Roald

2010-02-01

Methods of analysis that include an assessment of opponent interactions are thought to provide a more valid means of team match performance. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of playing tactics on achieving score-box possession by assessing opponent interactions in Norwegian elite soccer matches. We analysed a random series of 1703 team possessions from 163 of 182 (90%) matches played in the professional men's league during the 2004 season. Multidimensional qualitative data obtained from ten ordered categorical variables were used. Offensive tactics were more effective in producing score-box possessions when playing against an imbalanced defence (28.5%) than against a balanced defence (6.5%) (P < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression found that, for the main variable "team possession type", counterattacks were more effective than elaborate attacks when playing against an imbalanced defence (odds ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.64 to 4.43) but not against a balanced defence (odds ratio: 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 0.47 to 2.76). Assessment of opponent interactions is critical to evaluate the effectiveness of offensive playing tactics on producing score-box possessions, and improves the validity of team match-performance analysis in soccer.

Use of World Wide Web-based directories for tracing subjects in epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Koo, M M; Rohan, T E

2000-11-01

The recent availability of World Wide Web-based directories has opened up a new approach for tracing subjects in epidemiologic studies. The completeness of two World Wide Web-based directories (Canada411 and InfoSpace Canada) for subject tracing was evaluated by using a randomized crossover design for 346 adults randomly selected from respondents in an ongoing cohort study. About half (56.4%) of the subjects were successfully located by using either Canada411 or InfoSpace. Of the 43.6% of the subjects who could not be located using either directory, the majority (73.5%) were female. Overall, there was no clear advantage of one directory over the other. Although Canada411 could find significantly more subjects than InfoSpace, the number of potential matches returned by Canada411 was also higher, which meant that a longer list of potential matches had to be examined before a true match could be found. One strategy to minimize the number of potential matches per true match is to first search by InfoSpace with the last name and first name, then by Canada411 with the last name and first name, and finally by InfoSpace with the last name and first initial. Internet-based searches represent a potentially useful approach to tracing subjects in epidemiologic studies.

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls.

PubMed

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-04-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research.

Sampling in epidemiological research: issues, hazards and pitfalls

PubMed Central

Tyrer, Stephen; Heyman, Bob

2016-01-01

Surveys of people's opinions are fraught with difficulties. It is easier to obtain information from those who respond to text messages or to emails than to attempt to obtain a representative sample. Samples of the population that are selected non-randomly in this way are termed convenience samples as they are easy to recruit. This introduces a sampling bias. Such non-probability samples have merit in many situations, but an epidemiological enquiry is of little value unless a random sample is obtained. If a sufficient number of those selected actually complete a survey, the results are likely to be representative of the population. This editorial describes probability and non-probability sampling methods and illustrates the difficulties and suggested solutions in performing accurate epidemiological research. PMID:27087985

High-Resolution Radar Waveforms Based on Randomized Latin Square Sequences

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-18

familiar Costas sequence [17]. The ambiguity function first introduced by Woodward in [13] is used to evaluate the matched filter output of a Radar waveform...the zero-delay cut that the result takes the shape of a sinc function which shows, even for significant Doppler shifts, the matched filter output...bad feature as the high ridge of the LFM waveform will still result in a large matched filter response from the target, just not at the correct delay

Effects of sports drinks on the maintenance of physical performance during 3 tennis matches: a randomized controlled study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Tennis tournaments often involve playing several consecutive matches interspersed with short periods of recovery. Objective The objective of this study was firstly to assess the impact of several successive tennis matches on the physical performance of competitive players and secondly to evaluate the potential of sports drinks to minimize the fatigue induced by repeated matches. Methods This was a crossover, randomized controlled study. Eight male regionally-ranked tennis players participated in this study. Players underwent a series of physical tests to assess their strength, speed, power and endurance following the completion of three tennis matches each of two hours duration played over three consecutive half-days (1.5 day period for each condition). In the first condition the players consumed a sports drink before, during and after each match; in the second, they drank an identical volume of placebo water. The results obtained were compared with the third ‘rest’ condition in which the subjects did not play any tennis. Main outcomes measured were maximal isometric strength and fatigability of knee and elbow extensors, 20-m sprint speed, jumping height, specific repeated sprint ability test and hand grip strength. Results The physical test results for the lower limbs showed no significant differences between the three conditions. Conversely, on the upper limbs the EMG data showed greater fatigue of the triceps brachii in the placebo condition compared to the rest condition, while the ingestion of sports drinks attenuated this fatigue. Conclusions This study has demonstrated for the first time that, when tennis players are adequately hydrated and ingest balanced meals between matches, then no large drop in physical performance is observed even during consecutive competitive matches. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01353872. PMID:25302057

Regional brain changes in bipolar I depression: a functional magnetic resonance imaging study

PubMed Central

Altshuler, Lori; Bookheimer, Susan; Townsend, Jennifer; Proenza, Manuel A; Sabb, Fred; Mintz, Jim; Cohen, Mark S

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate neural activity in prefrontal cortex and amygdala during bipolar depression. Methods Eleven bipolar I depressed and 17 normal subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing a task known to activate prefrontal cortex and amygdala. Whole brain activation patterns were determined using statistical parametric mapping (SPM) when subjects matched faces displaying neutral or negative affect (match condition) or matched a geometric form (control condition). Contrasts for each group for the match versus control conditions were used in a second-level random effects analysis. Results Random effects between-group analysis revealed significant attenuation in right and left orbitofrontal cortex (BA47) and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (BA9) in bipolar depressed subjects. Additionally, random effects analysis showed a significantly increased activation in left lateral orbitofrontal cortex (BA10) in the bipolar depressed versus control subjects. Within-group contrasts demonstrated significant amygdala activation in the controls and no significant amygdala activation in the bipolar depressed subjects. The amygdala between-group difference, however, was not significant. Conclusions Bipolar depression is associated with attenuated bilateral orbitofrontal (BA47) activation, attenuated right DLPFC (BA9) activation and heightened left orbitofrontal (BA10) activation. BA47 attenuation has also been reported in mania and may thus represent a trait feature of the disorder. Increased left prefrontal (BA10) activation may be a state marker to bipolar depression. Our findings suggest dissociation between mood-dependent and disease-dependent functional brain abnormalities in bipolar disorder. PMID:18837865

Effectiveness of a Dissonance-Based Eating Disorder Prevention Program for Ethnic Groups in Two Randomized Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Stice, Eric; Marti, C. Nathan; Cheng, Zhen Hadassah

2014-01-01

Objective As young women from certain ethnic minority groups have reported less pursuit of the thin ideal and body dissatisfaction than European American young women we tested whether a dissonance-based prevention program designed to reduce thin-ideal internalization among women with body dissatisfaction is less effective for the former relative to the later groups. We also tested whether intervention effects are larger when participants from minority groups worked with a facilitator matched versus not matched on ethnicity. Method In Study 1, 426 female undergraduates (M age = 21.6, SD = 5.6) were randomized to clinician-led Body Project groups or an educational control group. In Study 2, 189 female undergraduates were randomized to peer-led Body Project groups or a waitlist control condition. Results Although there was some variation in risk factor scores across ethnic groups, ethnic minority participants did not demonstrate consistently higher or lower risk relative to European American participants. Intervention effects did not significantly differ for participants from minority groups versus European American participants in either trial. There was no evidence that effects were significantly larger when minority participants and facilitators were matched on ethnicity. Conclusions Results suggest that the Body Project is similarly effective for African American, Asian American, European American, and Hispanic female college students, and when participants and facilitators are matched or not on minority ethnicity status, implying that this prevention program can be broadly disseminated in this population. PMID:24655465

A sensitivity analysis for missing outcomes due to truncation by death under the matched-pairs design.

PubMed

Imai, Kosuke; Jiang, Zhichao

2018-04-29

The matched-pairs design enables researchers to efficiently infer causal effects from randomized experiments. In this paper, we exploit the key feature of the matched-pairs design and develop a sensitivity analysis for missing outcomes due to truncation by death, in which the outcomes of interest (e.g., quality of life measures) are not even well defined for some units (e.g., deceased patients). Our key idea is that if 2 nearly identical observations are paired prior to the randomization of the treatment, the missingness of one unit's outcome is informative about the potential missingness of the other unit's outcome under an alternative treatment condition. We consider the average treatment effect among always-observed pairs (ATOP) whose units exhibit no missing outcome regardless of their treatment status. The naive estimator based on available pairs is unbiased for the ATOP if 2 units of the same pair are identical in terms of their missingness patterns. The proposed sensitivity analysis characterizes how the bounds of the ATOP widen as the degree of the within-pair similarity decreases. We further extend the methodology to the matched-pairs design in observational studies. Our simulation studies show that informative bounds can be obtained under some scenarios when the proportion of missing data is not too large. The proposed methodology is also applied to the randomized evaluation of the Mexican universal health insurance program. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed research. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effectiveness of a dissonance-based eating disorder prevention program for ethnic groups in two randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Marti, C Nathan; Cheng, Zhen Hadassah

2014-04-01

As young women from certain ethnic minority groups have reported less pursuit of the thin ideal and body dissatisfaction than European American young women we tested whether a dissonance-based prevention program designed to reduce thin-ideal internalization among women with body dissatisfaction is less effective for the former relative to the later groups. We also tested whether intervention effects are larger when participants from minority groups worked with a facilitator matched versus not matched on ethnicity. In Study 1, 426 female undergraduates (M age=21.6, SD=5.6) were randomized to clinician-led Body Project groups or an educational control group. In Study 2, 189 female undergraduates were randomized to peer-led Body Project groups or a waitlist control condition. Although there was some variation in risk factor scores across ethnic groups, ethnic minority participants did not demonstrate consistently higher or lower risk relative to European American participants. Intervention effects did not significantly differ for participants from minority groups versus European American participants in either trial. There was no evidence that effects were significantly larger when minority participants and facilitators were matched on ethnicity. Results suggest that the Body Project is similarly effective for African American, Asian American, European American, and Hispanic female college students, and when participants and facilitators are matched or not on minority ethnicity status, implying that this prevention program can be broadly disseminated in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Random Partition Distribution Indexed by Pairwise Information

PubMed Central

Dahl, David B.; Day, Ryan; Tsai, Jerry W.

2017-01-01

We propose a random partition distribution indexed by pairwise similarity information such that partitions compatible with the similarities are given more probability. The use of pairwise similarities, in the form of distances, is common in some clustering algorithms (e.g., hierarchical clustering), but we show how to use this type of information to define a prior partition distribution for flexible Bayesian modeling. A defining feature of the distribution is that it allocates probability among partitions within a given number of subsets, but it does not shift probability among sets of partitions with different numbers of subsets. Our distribution places more probability on partitions that group similar items yet keeps the total probability of partitions with a given number of subsets constant. The distribution of the number of subsets (and its moments) is available in closed-form and is not a function of the similarities. Our formulation has an explicit probability mass function (with a tractable normalizing constant) so the full suite of MCMC methods may be used for posterior inference. We compare our distribution with several existing partition distributions, showing that our formulation has attractive properties. We provide three demonstrations to highlight the features and relative performance of our distribution. PMID:29276318

Recognition and Matching of Clustered Mature Litchi Fruits Using Binocular Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) Color Cameras

PubMed Central

Wang, Chenglin; Tang, Yunchao; Zou, Xiangjun; Luo, Lufeng; Chen, Xiong

2017-01-01

Recognition and matching of litchi fruits are critical steps for litchi harvesting robots to successfully grasp litchi. However, due to the randomness of litchi growth, such as clustered growth with uncertain number of fruits and random occlusion by leaves, branches and other fruits, the recognition and matching of the fruit become a challenge. Therefore, this study firstly defined mature litchi fruit as three clustered categories. Then an approach for recognition and matching of clustered mature litchi fruit was developed based on litchi color images acquired by binocular charge-coupled device (CCD) color cameras. The approach mainly included three steps: (1) calibration of binocular color cameras and litchi image acquisition; (2) segmentation of litchi fruits using four kinds of supervised classifiers, and recognition of the pre-defined categories of clustered litchi fruit using a pixel threshold method; and (3) matching the recognized clustered fruit using a geometric center-based matching method. The experimental results showed that the proposed recognition method could be robust against the influences of varying illumination and occlusion conditions, and precisely recognize clustered litchi fruit. In the tested 432 clustered litchi fruits, the highest and lowest average recognition rates were 94.17% and 92.00% under sunny back-lighting and partial occlusion, and sunny front-lighting and non-occlusion conditions, respectively. From 50 pairs of tested images, the highest and lowest matching success rates were 97.37% and 91.96% under sunny back-lighting and non-occlusion, and sunny front-lighting and partial occlusion conditions, respectively. PMID:29112177

Cooperation for volunteering and partially random partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, György; Vukov, Jeromos

2004-03-01

Competition among cooperative, defective, and loner strategies is studied by considering an evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game for different partnerships. In this game each player can adopt one of its coplayer’s strategy with a probability depending on the difference of payoffs coming from games with the corresponding coplayers. Our attention is focused on the effects of annealed and quenched randomness in the partnership for fixed number of coplayers. It is shown that only the loners survive if the four coplayers are chosen randomly (mean-field limit). On the contrary, on the square lattice all the three strategies are maintained by the cyclic invasions resulting in a self-organizing spatial pattern. If the fixed partnership is described by a regular small-world structure then a homogeneous oscillation occurs in the population dynamics when the measure of quenched randomness exceeds a threshold value. Similar behavior with higher sensitivity to the randomness is found if temporary partners are substituted for the standard ones with some probability at each step of iteration.

Random Walks on Homeo( S 1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malicet, Dominique

2017-12-01

In this paper, we study random walks {g_n=f_{n-1}\\ldots f_0} on the group Homeo ( S 1) of the homeomorphisms of the circle, where the homeomorphisms f k are chosen randomly, independently, with respect to a same probability measure {ν}. We prove that under the only condition that there is no probability measure invariant by {ν}-almost every homeomorphism, the random walk almost surely contracts small intervals. It generalizes what has been known on this subject until now, since various conditions on {ν} were imposed in order to get the phenomenon of contractions. Moreover, we obtain the surprising fact that the rate of contraction is exponential, even in the lack of assumptions of smoothness on the f k 's. We deduce various dynamical consequences on the random walk ( g n ): finiteness of ergodic stationary measures, distribution of the trajectories, asymptotic law of the evaluations, etc. The proof of the main result is based on a modification of the Ávila-Viana's invariance principle, working for continuous cocycles on a space fibred in circles.

Impact of School-Based HIV Prevention Program in Post-Conflict Liberia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atwood, Katharine A.; Kennedy, Stephen B.; Shamblen, Steve; Tegli, Jemee; Garber, Salome; Fahnbulleh, Pearl W.; Korvah, Prince M.; Kolubah, Moses; Mulbah-Kamara, Comfort; Fulton, Shannon

2012-01-01

This paper presents findings of a feasibility study to adapt and evaluate the impact of an evidence-based HIV prevention intervention on sexual risk behaviors of in-school 6th grade youth in post-conflict Liberia (n = 812). The study used an attention-matched, group randomized controlled trial. Four matched pairs of elementary/middle schools in…

Pigeons' Choices between Fixed-Interval and Random-Interval Schedules: Utility of Variability?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrzejewski, Matthew E.; Cardinal, Claudia D.; Field, Douglas P.; Flannery, Barbara A.; Johnson, Michael; Bailey, Kathleen; Hineline, Philip N.

2005-01-01

Pigeons' choosing between fixed-interval and random-interval schedules of reinforcement was investigated in three experiments using a discrete-trial procedure. In all three experiments, the random-interval schedule was generated by sampling a probability distribution at an interval (and in multiples of the interval) equal to that of the…

Sample Selection in Randomized Experiments: A New Method Using Propensity Score Stratified Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tipton, Elizabeth; Hedges, Larry; Vaden-Kiernan, Michael; Borman, Geoffrey; Sullivan, Kate; Caverly, Sarah

2014-01-01

Randomized experiments are often seen as the "gold standard" for causal research. Despite the fact that experiments use random assignment to treatment conditions, units are seldom selected into the experiment using probability sampling. Very little research on experimental design has focused on how to make generalizations to well-defined…

Percolation of localized attack on isolated and interdependent random networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Shuai; Huang, Xuqing; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2014-03-01

Percolation properties of isolated and interdependent random networks have been investigated extensively. The focus of these studies has been on random attacks where each node in network is attacked with the same probability or targeted attack where each node is attacked with a probability being a function of its centrality, such as degree. Here we discuss a new type of realistic attacks which we call a localized attack where a group of neighboring nodes in the networks are attacked. We attack a randomly chosen node, its neighbors, and its neighbor of neighbors and so on, until removing a fraction (1 - p) of the network. This type of attack reflects damages due to localized disasters, such as earthquakes, floods and war zones in real-world networks. We study, both analytically and by simulations the impact of localized attack on percolation properties of random networks with arbitrary degree distributions and discuss in detail random regular (RR) networks, Erdős-Rényi (ER) networks and scale-free (SF) networks. We extend and generalize our theoretical and simulation results of single isolated networks to networks formed of interdependent networks.

Graph edit distance from spectral seriation.

PubMed

Robles-Kelly, Antonio; Hancock, Edwin R

2005-03-01

This paper is concerned with computing graph edit distance. One of the criticisms that can be leveled at existing methods for computing graph edit distance is that they lack some of the formality and rigor of the computation of string edit distance. Hence, our aim is to convert graphs to string sequences so that string matching techniques can be used. To do this, we use a graph spectral seriation method to convert the adjacency matrix into a string or sequence order. We show how the serial ordering can be established using the leading eigenvector of the graph adjacency matrix. We pose the problem of graph-matching as a maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) alignment of the seriation sequences for pairs of graphs. This treatment leads to an expression in which the edit cost is the negative logarithm of the a posteriori sequence alignment probability. We compute the edit distance by finding the sequence of string edit operations which minimizes the cost of the path traversing the edit lattice. The edit costs are determined by the components of the leading eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix and by the edge densities of the graphs being matched. We demonstrate the utility of the edit distance on a number of graph clustering problems.

Optimal background matching camouflage.

PubMed

Michalis, Constantine; Scott-Samuel, Nicholas E; Gibson, David P; Cuthill, Innes C

2017-07-12

Background matching is the most familiar and widespread camouflage strategy: avoiding detection by having a similar colour and pattern to the background. Optimizing background matching is straightforward in a homogeneous environment, or when the habitat has very distinct sub-types and there is divergent selection leading to polymorphism. However, most backgrounds have continuous variation in colour and texture, so what is the best solution? Not all samples of the background are likely to be equally inconspicuous, and laboratory experiments on birds and humans support this view. Theory suggests that the most probable background sample (in the statistical sense), at the size of the prey, would, on average, be the most cryptic. We present an analysis, based on realistic assumptions about low-level vision, that estimates the distribution of background colours and visual textures, and predicts the best camouflage. We present data from a field experiment that tests and supports our predictions, using artificial moth-like targets under bird predation. Additionally, we present analogous data for humans, under tightly controlled viewing conditions, searching for targets on a computer screen. These data show that, in the absence of predator learning, the best single camouflage pattern for heterogeneous backgrounds is the most probable sample. © 2017 The Authors.

Matching weights to simultaneously compare three treatment groups: Comparison to three-way matching

PubMed Central

Yoshida, Kazuki; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; Solomon, Daniel H.; Jackson, John W.; Gagne, Joshua J.; Glynn, Robert J.; Franklin, Jessica M.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Propensity score matching is a commonly used tool. However, its use in settings with more than two treatment groups has been less frequent. We examined the performance of a recently developed propensity score weighting method in the three treatment group setting. METHODS The matching weight method is an extension of inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) that reweights both exposed and unexposed groups to emulate a propensity score matched population. Matching weights can generalize to multiple treatment groups. The performance of matching weights in the three-group setting was compared via simulation to three-way 1:1:1 propensity score matching and IPTW. We also applied these methods to an empirical example that compared the safety of three analgesics. RESULTS Matching weights had similar bias, but better mean squared error (MSE) compared to three-way matching in all scenarios. The benefits were more pronounced in scenarios with a rare outcome, unequally sized treatment groups, or poor covariate overlap. IPTW’s performance was highly dependent on covariate overlap. In the empirical example, matching weights achieved the best balance for 24 out of 35 covariates. Hazard ratios were numerically similar to matching. However, the confidence intervals were narrower for matching weights. CONCLUSIONS Matching weights demonstrated improved performance over three-way matching in terms of MSE, particularly in simulation scenarios where finding matched subjects was difficult. Given its natural extension to settings with even more than three groups, we recommend matching weights for comparing outcomes across multiple treatment groups, particularly in settings with rare outcomes or unequal exposure distributions. PMID:28151746

Monte Carlo, Probability, Algebra, and Pi.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinders, Duane C.

1981-01-01

The uses of random number generators are illustrated in three ways: (1) the solution of a probability problem using a coin; (2) the solution of a system of simultaneous linear equations using a die; and (3) the approximation of pi using darts. (MP)

Drawbacks in the scientification of forensic science.

PubMed

Biedermann, A; Curran, J

2014-12-01

This letter to the Editor comments on the article On the limitations of probability in conceptualizing pattern matches in forensic science by P. T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International, [10]). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mercury: surface composition from the reflection spectrum.

PubMed

McCord, T B; Adams, J B

1972-11-17

The reflection spectrum for the integral disk of the planet Mercury was measured and was found to have a constant positive slope from 0.32 to 1.05 micrometers, except for absorption features in the infrared. The reflectivity curve matches closely the curve for the lunar upland and mare regions. Thus, the surface of Mercury is probably covered with a lunar-like soil rich in dark glasses of high iron and titanium content. Pyroxene is probably the dominant mafic mineral.

Reducing the likelihood of long tennis matches.

PubMed

Barnett, Tristan; Alan, Brown; Pollard, Graham

2006-01-01

Long matches can cause problems for tournaments. For example, the starting times of subsequent matches can be substantially delayed causing inconvenience to players, spectators, officials and television scheduling. They can even be seen as unfair in the tournament setting when the winner of a very long match, who may have negative aftereffects from such a match, plays the winner of an average or shorter length match in the next round. Long matches can also lead to injuries to the participating players. One factor that can lead to long matches is the use of the advantage set as the fifth set, as in the Australian Open, the French Open and Wimbledon. Another factor is long rallies and a greater than average number of points per game. This tends to occur more frequently on the slower surfaces such as at the French Open. The mathematical method of generating functions is used to show that the likelihood of long matches can be substantially reduced by using the tiebreak game in the fifth set, or more effectively by using a new type of game, the 50-40 game, throughout the match. Key PointsThe cumulant generating function has nice properties for calculating the parameters of distributions in a tennis matchA final tiebreaker set reduces the length of matches as currently being used in the US OpenA new 50-40 game reduces the length of matches whilst maintaining comparable probabilities for the better player to win the match.

Reducing the Likelihood of Long Tennis Matches

PubMed Central

Barnett, Tristan; Alan, Brown; Pollard, Graham

2006-01-01

Long matches can cause problems for tournaments. For example, the starting times of subsequent matches can be substantially delayed causing inconvenience to players, spectators, officials and television scheduling. They can even be seen as unfair in the tournament setting when the winner of a very long match, who may have negative aftereffects from such a match, plays the winner of an average or shorter length match in the next round. Long matches can also lead to injuries to the participating players. One factor that can lead to long matches is the use of the advantage set as the fifth set, as in the Australian Open, the French Open and Wimbledon. Another factor is long rallies and a greater than average number of points per game. This tends to occur more frequently on the slower surfaces such as at the French Open. The mathematical method of generating functions is used to show that the likelihood of long matches can be substantially reduced by using the tiebreak game in the fifth set, or more effectively by using a new type of game, the 50-40 game, throughout the match. Key Points The cumulant generating function has nice properties for calculating the parameters of distributions in a tennis match A final tiebreaker set reduces the length of matches as currently being used in the US Open A new 50-40 game reduces the length of matches whilst maintaining comparable probabilities for the better player to win the match. PMID:24357951

Radio-nuclide mixture identification using medium energy resolution detectors

DOEpatents

Nelson, Karl Einar

2013-09-17

According to one embodiment, a method for identifying radio-nuclides includes receiving spectral data, extracting a feature set from the spectral data comparable to a plurality of templates in a template library, and using a branch and bound method to determine a probable template match based on the feature set and templates in the template library. In another embodiment, a device for identifying unknown radio-nuclides includes a processor, a multi-channel analyzer, and a memory operatively coupled to the processor, the memory having computer readable code stored thereon. The computer readable code is configured, when executed by the processor, to receive spectral data, to extract a feature set from the spectral data comparable to a plurality of templates in a template library, and to use a branch and bound method to determine a probable template match based on the feature set and templates in the template library.

Analytical study of nano-scale logical operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Moumita; Maiti, Santanu K.

2018-07-01

A complete analytical prescription is given to perform three basic (OR, AND, NOT) and two universal (NAND, NOR) logic gates at nano-scale level using simple tailor made geometries. Two different geometries, ring-like and chain-like, are taken into account where in each case the bridging conductor is coupled to a local atomic site through a dangling bond whose site energy can be controlled by means of external gate electrode. The main idea is that when injecting electron energy matches with site energy of local atomic site transmission probability drops exactly to zero, whereas the junction exhibits finite transmission for other energies. Utilizing this prescription we perform logical operations, and, we strongly believe that the proposed results can be verified in laboratory. Finally, we numerically compute two-terminal transmission probability considering general models and the numerical results match exactly well with our analytical findings.

Data registration for automated non-destructive inspection with multiple data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippetts, T.; Brierley, N.; Cawley, P.

2013-01-01

In many NDE applications, multiple sources of data are available covering the same region of a part under inspection. These overlapping data can come from intersecting scan patterns, sensors in an array configuration, or repeated inspections at different times. In many cases these data sets are analysed independently, with separate assessments for each channel or data file. It should be possible to improve the overall reliability of the inspection by combining multiple sources of information, simultaneously increasing the Probability of Detection (POD) and decreasing the Probability of False Alarm (PFA). Data registration, i.e. mapping the data to matching coordinates in space, is both an essential prerequisite and a challenging obstacle to this type of data fusion. This paper describes optimization techniques for matching and aligning features in NDE data. Examples from automated ultrasound inspection of aircraft engine discs illustrate the approach.

Dimension from covariance matrices.

PubMed

Carroll, T L; Byers, J M

2017-02-01

We describe a method to estimate embedding dimension from a time series. This method includes an estimate of the probability that the dimension estimate is valid. Such validity estimates are not common in algorithms for calculating the properties of dynamical systems. The algorithm described here compares the eigenvalues of covariance matrices created from an embedded signal to the eigenvalues for a covariance matrix of a Gaussian random process with the same dimension and number of points. A statistical test gives the probability that the eigenvalues for the embedded signal did not come from the Gaussian random process.

On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation.

PubMed

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-02-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Analysis of random signal combinations for spacecraft pointing stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, L.

1983-01-01

Methods for obtaining the probability density function of random signal combustions are discussed. These methods provide a realistic criteria for the design of control systems subjected to external noise with several important applications for aerospace problems.

Exploration and Trapping of Mortal Random Walkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuste, S. B.; Abad, E.; Lindenberg, Katja

2013-05-01

Exploration and trapping properties of random walkers that may evanesce at any time as they walk have seen very little treatment in the literature, and yet a finite lifetime is a frequent occurrence, and its effects on a number of random walk properties may be profound. For instance, whereas the average number of distinct sites visited by an immortal walker grows with time without bound, that of a mortal walker may, depending on dimensionality and rate of evanescence, remain finite or keep growing with the passage of time. This number can in turn be used to calculate other classic quantities such as the survival probability of a target surrounded by diffusing traps. If the traps are immortal, the survival probability will vanish with increasing time. However, if the traps are evanescent, the target may be spared a certain death. We analytically calculate a number of basic and broadly used quantities for evanescent random walkers.

Pregabalin and gabapentin for the treatment of sciatica.

PubMed

Robertson, Kelvin; Marshman, Laurence A G; Plummer, David

2016-04-01

Whilst pregabalin (PGB) and gabapentin (GBP) are both used to treat neuropathic pain, their relative role in sciatica is unclear. Our aim was to extensively review the roles of PGB and GBP in treating sciatica. The efficacy, side effects (SE) profile and cost of PGB and GBP in neuropathic pain states were reviewed with special reference to sciatica. Eleven articles matched the criteria: seven systematic reviews, one retrospective cross-sectional study, one placebo-controlled-crossover study, one randomized placebo-controlled double-blind study and one case report. GBP and PGB appeared to demonstrate comparable efficacy and SE. However, the amount and quality of evidence was low, and only indirect comparisons were available. Importantly, no direct "head-to-head" study existed. Globally, costs varied widely (by up to 31 times) and unpredictably (PGB cheaper than GBP, or vice versa). Formulary regulator rulings were globally disparate; however, many exclusively favoured the more expensive drug (whether GBP or PGB). No studies assessed PGB-GBP interchange. Weak evidence suggests that efficacy and SE with GBP and PGB are probably similar; however, firm conclusions are precluded. Despite weak data, and having cited minor titration, but definite cost, advantages, UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence favoured PGB over GBP. Given that no evidence supports unhindered PGB-GBP interchange, neither drug should probably be favoured. Prospective "head-to-head" studies are urgently required to provide robust evidence-based knowledge for choice of GBP or PGB in sciatica. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optical parametric oscillation in a random poly-crystalline medium: ZnSe ceramic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ru, Qitian; Kawamori, Taiki; Lee, Nathaniel; Chen, Xuan; Zhong, Kai; Mirov, Mike; Vasilyev, Sergey; Mirov, Sergey B.; Vodopyanov, Konstantin L.

2018-02-01

We demonstrate an optical parametric oscillator (OPO) based on random phase matching in a polycrystalline χ(2) material, ZnSe. The subharmonic OPO utilized a 1.5-mm-long polished ZnSe ceramic sample placed at the Brewster's angle and was synchronously pumped by a Kerr-lens mode-locked Cr:ZnS laser with a central wavelength of 2.35 μm, a pulse duration of 62 fs, and a repetition frequency of 79 MHz. The OPO had a 90-mW pump threshold, and produced an ultrabroadband spectrum spanning 3-7.5 μm. The observed pump depletion was as high as 79%. The key to success in achieving the OPO action was choosing the average grain size of the ZnSe ceramic to be close to the coherence length ( 100 μm) for our 3-wave interaction. This is the first OPO that uses random polycrystalline material with quadratic nonlinearity and the first OPO based on ZnSe. Very likely, random phase matching in ZnSe and similar random polycrystalline materials (ZnS, CdS, CdSe, GaP) represents a viable route for generating few-cycle pulses and multi-octave frequency combs, thanks to a very broadband nonlinear response.

Responsiveness-informed multiple imputation and inverse probability-weighting in cohort studies with missing data that are non-monotone or not missing at random.

PubMed

Doidge, James C

2018-02-01

Population-based cohort studies are invaluable to health research because of the breadth of data collection over time, and the representativeness of their samples. However, they are especially prone to missing data, which can compromise the validity of analyses when data are not missing at random. Having many waves of data collection presents opportunity for participants' responsiveness to be observed over time, which may be informative about missing data mechanisms and thus useful as an auxiliary variable. Modern approaches to handling missing data such as multiple imputation and maximum likelihood can be difficult to implement with the large numbers of auxiliary variables and large amounts of non-monotone missing data that occur in cohort studies. Inverse probability-weighting can be easier to implement but conventional wisdom has stated that it cannot be applied to non-monotone missing data. This paper describes two methods of applying inverse probability-weighting to non-monotone missing data, and explores the potential value of including measures of responsiveness in either inverse probability-weighting or multiple imputation. Simulation studies are used to compare methods and demonstrate that responsiveness in longitudinal studies can be used to mitigate bias induced by missing data, even when data are not missing at random.

Construction and identification of a D-Vine model applied to the probability distribution of modal parameters in structural dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubreuil, S.; Salaün, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Petitjean, F.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the construction and identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters (natural frequencies and effective parameters) in structural dynamics. As these parameters present various types of dependence structures, the retained approach is based on pair copula construction (PCC). A literature review leads us to choose a D-Vine model for the construction of modal parameters probability distributions. Identification of this model is based on likelihood maximization which makes it sensitive to the dimension of the distribution, namely the number of considered modes in our context. To this respect, a mode selection preprocessing step is proposed. It allows the selection of the relevant random modes for a given transfer function. The second point, addressed in this study, concerns the choice of the D-Vine model. Indeed, D-Vine model is not uniquely defined. Two strategies are proposed and compared. The first one is based on the context of the study whereas the second one is purely based on statistical considerations. Finally, the proposed approaches are numerically studied and compared with respect to their capabilities, first in the identification of the probability distribution of random modal parameters and second in the estimation of the 99 % quantiles of some transfer functions.

Simulation of flight maneuver-load distributions by utilizing stationary, non-Gaussian random load histories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leybold, H. A.

1971-01-01

Random numbers were generated with the aid of a digital computer and transformed such that the probability density function of a discrete random load history composed of these random numbers had one of the following non-Gaussian distributions: Poisson, binomial, log-normal, Weibull, and exponential. The resulting random load histories were analyzed to determine their peak statistics and were compared with cumulative peak maneuver-load distributions for fighter and transport aircraft in flight.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

PubMed Central

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations. PMID:24392290

A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

PubMed

Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

2013-09-01

Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

High-dose B vitamin supplementation and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hodis, Howard N; Mack, Wendy J; Dustin, Laurie; Mahrer, Peter R; Azen, Stanley P; Detrano, Robert; Selhub, Jacob; Alaupovic, Petar; Liu, Chao-ran; Liu, Ci-hua; Hwang, Juliana; Wilcox, Alison G; Selzer, Robert H

2009-03-01

Although plasma total homocysteine (tHcy) levels are associated with cardiovascular disease, it remains unclear whether homocysteine is a cause or a marker of atherosclerotic vascular disease. We determined whether reduction of tHcy levels with B vitamin supplementation reduces subclinical atherosclerosis progression. In this double-blind clinical trial, 506 participants 40 to 89 years of age with an initial tHcy >8.5 micromol/L without diabetes and cardiovascular disease were randomized to high-dose B vitamin supplementation (5 mg folic acid+0.4 mg vitamin B(12)+50 mg vitamin B(6)) or matching placebo for 3.1 years. Subclinical atherosclerosis progression across 3 vascular beds was assessed using high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography to measure carotid artery intima media thickness (primary outcome) and multidetector spiral CT to measure aortic and coronary artery calcium (secondary outcome). Although the overall carotid artery intima media thickness progression rate was lower with B vitamin supplementation than with placebo, statistically significant between-group differences were not found (P=0.31). However, among subjects with baseline tHcy >or=9.1 micromol/L, those randomized to B vitamin supplementation had a statistically significant lower average rate of carotid artery intima media thickness progression compared with placebo (P=0.02); among subjects with a baseline tHcy <9.1 micromol/L, there was no significant treatment effect (probability value for treatment interaction=0.02). B vitamin supplementation had no effect on progression of aortic or coronary artery calcification overall or within subgroups. High-dose B vitamin supplementation significantly reduces progression of early-stage subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid artery intima media thickness) in well-nourished healthy B vitamin "replete" individuals at low risk for cardiovascular disease with a fasting tHcy >or=9.1 micromol/L.

Double-blind, randomized study of the effects of influenza vaccination on the specific antibody response and clinical course of patients with chronic fatigue syndrome

PubMed Central

Sleigh, Kenna M; Danforth, Donelda G; Hall, Raymond T; Fleming, Jonathan A; Stiver, H Grant

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether influenza immunization is associated with early side effects, a deleterious impact on the illness course and depressed antibody response in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trial. CFS patients and healthy volunteers filled out a questionnaire on immunization side effects and had hemagglutination-inhibiting (HI) antibody titres measured pre- and three weeks after immunization. CFS patients completed symptom and function questionnaires before and during the six-week, postimmunization period. SETTING: Ambulatory care. POPULATION STUDIED: Convenience sample of 40 CFS patients fulfilling the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria and 21 demographically matched healthy volunteers. INTERVENTIONS: CFS patients were randomly selected to receive commercially available whole virus influenza vaccine (n=19) or an injection of saline placebo (n=21). Healthy volunteers received vaccine only. MAIN RESULTS: As a group, immunized CFS patients had lower geometric mean HI antibody rises than healthy volunteers (P<0.001). However, there was no difference in the rates of fourfold titre rises, and immunization did achieve a probably protective titre (1:32 or greater) in most CFS patients. No difference could be detected between immunized and placebo CFS patients in immunization side effects, although CFS patients as a group reported four times as many side effects as healthy volunteers. Further, in the six weeks following immunization, placebo and immunized CFS patients did not demonstrate any differences in terms of functioning, symptom severity and sleep disturbance. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CFS, influenza immunization is safe, not associated with any excess early reactions, and stimulates an immunizing response comparable with that of healthy volunteers. PMID:18159300

No shortcut solution to the problem of Y-STR match probability calculation.

PubMed

Caliebe, Amke; Jochens, Arne; Willuweit, Sascha; Roewer, Lutz; Krawczak, Michael

2015-03-01

Match probability calculation is deemed much more intricate for lineage genetic markers, including Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs), than for autosomal markers. This is because, owing to the lack of recombination, strong interdependence between markers is likely, which implies that haplotype frequency estimates cannot simply be obtained through the multiplication of allele frequency estimates. As yet, however, the practical relevance of this problem has not been studied in much detail using real data. In fact, such scrutiny appears well warranted because the high mutation rates of Y-STRs and the possibility of backward mutation should have worked against the statistical association of Y-STRs. We examined haplotype data of 21 markers included in the PowerPlex(®)Y23 set (PPY23, Promega Corporation, Madison, WI) originating from six different populations (four European and two Asian). Assessing the conditional entropies of the markers, given different subsets of markers from the same panel, we demonstrate that the PowerPlex(®)Y23 set cannot be decomposed into smaller marker subsets that would be (conditionally) independent. Nevertheless, in all six populations, >94% of the joint entropy of the 21 markers is explained by the seven most rapidly mutating markers. Although this result might render a reduction in marker number a sensible option for practical casework, the partial haplotypes would still be almost as diverse as the full haplotypes. Therefore, match probability calculation remains difficult and calls for the improvement of currently available methods of haplotype frequency estimation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

2016-10-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Nonword Repetition and Fast Mapping in 3-Year-Olds With a History of Expressive Language Delay.

PubMed

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Dalton, Kevin Patrick

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability on sublexical (phonological) and lexical representations in 3-year-olds who had a history of being late talkers in comparison with their peers with typical language development. Ten 3-year-olds who were late talkers and 10 age-matched typically developing controls completed nonword repetition and fast mapping tasks; stimuli for both experimental procedures differed in phonotactic probability. Both participant groups repeated nonwords containing high phonotactic probability sequences more accurately than nonwords containing low phonotactic probability sequences. Participants with typical language showed an early advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words; children who were late talkers required more exposures to the novel words to show the same advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words. Children who were late talkers showed similar sensitivities to phonotactic probability in nonword repetition and word learning when compared with their peers with no history of language delay. However, word learning in children who were late talkers appeared to be slower when compared with their peers.

Probability of Finding Marrow Unrelated Donor (MUD) for an Indian patient in a Multi-national Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) Registry.

PubMed

Tiwari, Aseem K; Bhati-Kushwaha, Himakshi; Kukreja, Pooja; Mishra, Vikash C; Tyagi, Neetu; Sharma, Ashish; Raina, Vimarsh

2015-06-01

With an increase in the number of transplants happening globally, hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) transplantation from matched unrelated donor (MUD) has begun. The increasing trend of MUD transplants across countries has been largely facilitated with the conspicuous growth of volunteer HSC donor noted in the last decade i.e. 8 million HSC donors in 2002 to more than 22 million in 2013 registered in 71 member registries of the Bone Marrow Donor Worldwide (BMDW). Some populations of the world are still very poorly represented in these registries. Since, the chances of successful engraftment and disease free survival are directly proportional to the HLA compatibility between the recipient and the prospective donor, the diversity of the HLA system at the antigenic and allelic level and the heterogeneity of HLA data of the registered donors has a bearing on the probability of finding a volunteer unrelated HSC donor for patients from such populations. In the present study 126 patients were identified suffering from hematological diseases requiring MUD transplant. Their HLA typing was performed and search was done using BMDW database. The search results for these Indian patients in the multinational registry as well as in the Indian Registries were analyzed using mean, range, standard deviation and finally evaluated in terms of probability for finding matched donor (MUD). Total Asian population is only 11 % in the BMDW making it difficult to find a MUD for an Asian patient. The current study supports this, experimentally; revealing that the probability of finding an allele match for an Indian patient in the multinational Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) registries is 16 % and a dismal 0.008 % in the Indian registries (donors in Indian registries is just 33,678 as compared to 22.5 million in BMDW). This greatly, emphasizes on enhancing the number of Indian donors in Indian and multi-national registries.

Increased Plasma Beta-Secretase 1 May Predict Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Shen, Yong; Wang, Haibo; Sun, Qiying; Yao, Hailan; Keegan, Andrew P; Mullan, Mike; Wilson, Jeffrey; Lista, Simone; Leyhe, Thomas; Laske, Christoph; Rujescu, Dan; Levey, Allan; Wallin, Anders; Blennow, Kaj; Li, Rena; Hampel, Harald

2018-03-01

Increased beta-secretase 1 (BACE1) activity has consistently been detected in brain tissue and cerebrospinal fluid of subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) compared with control subjects. The collection of cerebrospinal fluid by lumbar puncture is invasive. We sought to identify the presence of plasma BACE1 activity and determine potential alterations in subjects with MCI with clinical follow-up examinations for 3 years using patients with diagnosed probable AD dementia compared with healthy control subjects. Seventy-five patients with probable AD, 96 individuals with MCI, and 53 age-matched and sex-matched healthy control subjects were recruited from three independent international academic memory clinics and AD research expert centers. Plasma BACE1 activity was measured by a synthetic fluorescence substrate enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. BACE1 protein expression was assessed by Western blotting using three different antibodies that recognize the epitopes of the N-terminus, C-terminus, and full-length BACE1. Compared with healthy control subjects, plasma BACE1 activity (V max ) significantly increased by 53.2% in subjects with MCI and by 68.9% in patients with probable AD. Subjects with MCI who converted to probable AD dementia at follow-up examinations exhibited significantly higher BACE1 activity compared with cognitively stable MCI nonconverters and showed higher levels of BACE1 activity than patients with AD. Plasma BACE1 activity is significantly increased in MCI converters and patients with probable AD. The sensitivities and specificities of BACE1 activity for the patients were 84% and 88%, respectively. Our results indicate that plasma BACE1 activity may be a biomarker for AD risk and could predict progression from prodromal to probable AD dementia. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deal, J. H.

1975-01-01

One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences from Nairobi (Kenya): inferring phylogenetic parameters for the establishment of a forensic database.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Anita; Peterson, Christine T; Irwin, Jodi A; Mpoke, Solomon; Koech, Davy K; Parson, Walther; Parsons, Thomas J

2004-10-01

Large forensic mtDNA databases which adhere to strict guidelines for generation and maintenance, are not available for many populations outside of the United States and western Europe. We have established a high quality mtDNA control region sequence database for urban Nairobi as both a reference database for forensic investigations, and as a tool to examine the genetic variation of Kenyan sequences in the context of known African variation. The Nairobi sequences exhibited high variation and a low random match probability, indicating utility for forensic testing. Haplogroup identification and frequencies were compared with those reported from other published studies on African, or African-origin populations from Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and the United States, and suggest significant differences in the mtDNA compositions of the various populations. The quality of the sequence data in our study was investigated and supported using phylogenetic measures. Our data demonstrate the diversity and distinctiveness of African populations, and underline the importance of establishing additional forensic mtDNA databases of indigenous African populations.

Speed in Information Processing with a Computer Driven Visual Display in a Real-time Digital Simulation. M.S. Thesis - Virginia Polytechnic Inst.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyle, R. G.

1972-01-01

Information transfer between the operator and computer-generated display systems is an area where the human factors engineer discovers little useful design data relating human performance to system effectiveness. This study utilized a computer-driven, cathode-ray-tube graphic display to quantify human response speed in a sequential information processing task. The performance criteria was response time to sixteen cell elements of a square matrix display. A stimulus signal instruction specified selected cell locations by both row and column identification. An equal probable number code, from one to four, was assigned at random to the sixteen cells of the matrix and correspondingly required one of four, matched keyed-response alternatives. The display format corresponded to a sequence of diagnostic system maintenance events, that enable the operator to verify prime system status, engage backup redundancy for failed subsystem components, and exercise alternate decision-making judgements. The experimental task bypassed the skilled decision-making element and computer processing time, in order to determine a lower bound on the basic response speed for given stimulus/response hardware arrangement.

Sensitivity analysis of limit state functions for probability-based plastic design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frangopol, D. M.

1984-01-01

The evaluation of the total probability of a plastic collapse failure P sub f for a highly redundant structure of random interdependent plastic moments acted on by random interdepedent loads is a difficult and computationally very costly process. The evaluation of reasonable bounds to this probability requires the use of second moment algebra which involves man statistical parameters. A computer program which selects the best strategy for minimizing the interval between upper and lower bounds of P sub f is now in its final stage of development. The relative importance of various uncertainties involved in the computational process on the resulting bounds of P sub f, sensitivity is analyzed. Response sensitivities for both mode and system reliability of an ideal plastic portal frame are shown.

Random Blume-Emery-Griffiths model on the Bethe lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albayrak, Erhan

2015-12-01

The random phase transitions of the Blume-Emery-Griffiths (BEG) model for the spin-1 system are investigated on the Bethe lattice and the phase diagrams of the model are obtained. The biquadratic exchange interaction (K) is turned on, i.e. the BEG model, with probability p either attractively (K > 0) or repulsively (K < 0) and turned off, which leads to the BC model, with the probability (1 - p) throughout the Bethe lattice. By taking the bilinear exchange interaction parameter J as a scaling parameter, the effects of the competitions between the reduced crystal fields (D / J), reduced biquadratic exchange interaction parameter (K / J) and the reduced temperature (kT / J) for given values of the probability when the coordination number is q=4, i.e. on a square lattice, are studied in detail.

Evaluation of domain randomness in periodically poled lithium niobate by diffraction noise measurement.

PubMed

Dwivedi, Prashant Povel; Choi, Hee Joo; Kim, Byoung Joo; Cha, Myoungsik

2013-12-16

Random duty-cycle errors (RDE) in ferroelectric quasi-phase-matching (QPM) devices not only affect the frequency conversion efficiency, but also generate non-phase-matched parasitic noise that can be detrimental to some applications. We demonstrate an accurate but simple method for measuring the RDE in periodically poled lithium niobate. Due to the equivalence between the undepleted harmonic generation spectrum and the diffraction pattern from the QPM grating, we employed linear diffraction measurement which is much simpler than tunable harmonic generation experiments [J. S. Pelc, et al., Opt. Lett.36, 864-866 (2011)]. As a result, we could relate the RDE for the QPM device to the relative noise intensity between the diffraction orders.

Estimating temporary emigration and breeding proportions using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1997-01-01

Statistical inference for capture-recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration, completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly-Seber (Seber 1982) estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach of Kendall et al. (1995) to robust design data. Capture-recapture data arising from Pollock's (1982) robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration, two of which should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small mammal capture-recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives accounting for multiple sources of material stochasticity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, S.; Barua, A.; Zhou, M., E-mail: min.zhou@me.gatech.edu

2014-05-07

Accounting for the combined effect of multiple sources of stochasticity in material attributes, we develop an approach that computationally predicts the probability of ignition of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) under impact loading. The probabilistic nature of the specific ignition processes is assumed to arise from two sources of stochasticity. The first source involves random variations in material microstructural morphology; the second source involves random fluctuations in grain-binder interfacial bonding strength. The effect of the first source of stochasticity is analyzed with multiple sets of statistically similar microstructures and constant interfacial bonding strength. Subsequently, each of the microstructures in the multiple setsmore » is assigned multiple instantiations of randomly varying grain-binder interfacial strengths to analyze the effect of the second source of stochasticity. Critical hotspot size-temperature states reaching the threshold for ignition are calculated through finite element simulations that explicitly account for microstructure and bulk and interfacial dissipation to quantify the time to criticality (t{sub c}) of individual samples, allowing the probability distribution of the time to criticality that results from each source of stochastic variation for a material to be analyzed. Two probability superposition models are considered to combine the effects of the multiple sources of stochasticity. The first is a parallel and series combination model, and the second is a nested probability function model. Results show that the nested Weibull distribution provides an accurate description of the combined ignition probability. The approach developed here represents a general framework for analyzing the stochasticity in the material behavior that arises out of multiple types of uncertainty associated with the structure, design, synthesis and processing of materials.« less

The Chandra Source Catalog 2.0: Early Cross-matches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rots, Arnold H.; Allen, Christopher E.; Anderson, Craig S.; Budynkiewicz, Jamie A.; Burke, Douglas; Chen, Judy C.; Civano, Francesca Maria; D'Abrusco, Raffaele; Doe, Stephen M.; Evans, Ian N.; Evans, Janet D.; Fabbiano, Giuseppina; Gibbs, Danny G., II; Glotfelty, Kenny J.; Graessle, Dale E.; Grier, John D.; Hain, Roger; Hall, Diane M.; Harbo, Peter N.; Houck, John C.; Lauer, Jennifer L.; Laurino, Omar; Lee, Nicholas P.; Martínez-Galarza, Rafael; McCollough, Michael L.; McDowell, Jonathan C.; Miller, Joseph; McLaughlin, Warren; Morgan, Douglas L.; Mossman, Amy E.; Nguyen, Dan T.; Nichols, Joy S.; Nowak, Michael A.; Paxson, Charles; Plummer, David A.; Primini, Francis Anthony; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Sundheim, Beth A.; Tibbetts, Michael; Van Stone, David W.; Zografou, Panagoula

2018-01-01

Cross-matching the Chandra Source Catalog (CSC) with other catalogs presents considerable challenges, since the Point Spread Function (PSF) of the Chandra X-ray Observatory varies significantly over the field of view. For the second release of the CSC (CSC2) we have been developing a cross-match tool that is based on the Bayesian algorithms by Budavari, Heinis, and Szalay (ApJ 679, 301 and 705, 739), making use of the error ellipses for the derived positions of the sources.However, calculating match probabilities only on the basis of error ellipses breaks down when the PSFs are significantly different. Not only can bonafide matches easily be missed, but the scene is also muddied by ambiguous multiple matches. These are issues that are not commonly addressed in cross-match tools. We have applied a satisfactory modification to the algorithm that, although not perfect, ameliorates the problems for the vast majority of such cases.We will present some early cross-matches of the CSC2 catalog with obvious candidate catalogs and report on the determination of the absolute astrometric error of the CSC2 based on such cross-matches.This work has been supported by NASA under contract NAS 8-03060 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for operation of the Chandra X-ray Center.

Logistic regression of family data from retrospective study designs.

PubMed

Whittemore, Alice S; Halpern, Jerry

2003-11-01

We wish to study the effects of genetic and environmental factors on disease risk, using data from families ascertained because they contain multiple cases of the disease. To do so, we must account for the way participants were ascertained, and for within-family correlations in both disease occurrences and covariates. We model the joint probability distribution of the covariates of ascertained family members, given family disease occurrence and pedigree structure. We describe two such covariate models: the random effects model and the marginal model. Both models assume a logistic form for the distribution of one person's covariates that involves a vector beta of regression parameters. The components of beta in the two models have different interpretations, and they differ in magnitude when the covariates are correlated within families. We describe ascertainment assumptions needed to estimate consistently the parameters beta(RE) in the random effects model and the parameters beta(M) in the marginal model. Under the ascertainment assumptions for the random effects model, we show that conditional logistic regression (CLR) of matched family data gives a consistent estimate beta(RE) for beta(RE) and a consistent estimate for the covariance matrix of beta(RE). Under the ascertainment assumptions for the marginal model, we show that unconditional logistic regression (ULR) gives a consistent estimate for beta(M), and we give a consistent estimator for its covariance matrix. The random effects/CLR approach is simple to use and to interpret, but it can use data only from families containing both affected and unaffected members. The marginal/ULR approach uses data from all individuals, but its variance estimates require special computations. A C program to compute these variance estimates is available at http://www.stanford.edu/dept/HRP/epidemiology. We illustrate these pros and cons by application to data on the effects of parity on ovarian cancer risk in mother/daughter pairs, and use simulations to study the performance of the estimates. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Testing Stage-Specific Effects of a Stage-Matched Intervention: A Randomized Controlled Trial Targeting Physical Exercise and Its Predictors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lippke, Sonia; Schwarzer, Ralf; Ziegelmann, Jochen P.; Scholz, Urte; Schuz, Benjamin

2010-01-01

Health education interventions can be tailored toward stages of change. This strategy is based on theories that predict at which stage which variables are indicative of subsequent behavior change processes. For example, planning is regarded as being effective in intenders. However, rather few studies have tested whether matched interventions are…

Most Undirected Random Graphs Are Amplifiers of Selection for Birth-Death Dynamics, but Suppressors of Selection for Death-Birth Dynamics.

PubMed

Hindersin, Laura; Traulsen, Arne

2015-11-01

We analyze evolutionary dynamics on graphs, where the nodes represent individuals of a population. The links of a node describe which other individuals can be displaced by the offspring of the individual on that node. Amplifiers of selection are graphs for which the fixation probability is increased for advantageous mutants and decreased for disadvantageous mutants. A few examples of such amplifiers have been developed, but so far it is unclear how many such structures exist and how to construct them. Here, we show that almost any undirected random graph is an amplifier of selection for Birth-death updating, where an individual is selected to reproduce with probability proportional to its fitness and one of its neighbors is replaced by that offspring at random. If we instead focus on death-Birth updating, in which a random individual is removed and its neighbors compete for the empty spot, then the same ensemble of graphs consists of almost only suppressors of selection for which the fixation probability is decreased for advantageous mutants and increased for disadvantageous mutants. Thus, the impact of population structure on evolutionary dynamics is a subtle issue that will depend on seemingly minor details of the underlying evolutionary process.

Curve Set Feature-Based Robust and Fast Pose Estimation Algorithm

PubMed Central

Hashimoto, Koichi

2017-01-01

Bin picking refers to picking the randomly-piled objects from a bin for industrial production purposes, and robotic bin picking is always used in automated assembly lines. In order to achieve a higher productivity, a fast and robust pose estimation algorithm is necessary to recognize and localize the randomly-piled parts. This paper proposes a pose estimation algorithm for bin picking tasks using point cloud data. A novel descriptor Curve Set Feature (CSF) is proposed to describe a point by the surface fluctuation around this point and is also capable of evaluating poses. The Rotation Match Feature (RMF) is proposed to match CSF efficiently. The matching process combines the idea of the matching in 2D space of origin Point Pair Feature (PPF) algorithm with nearest neighbor search. A voxel-based pose verification method is introduced to evaluate the poses and proved to be more than 30-times faster than the kd-tree-based verification method. Our algorithm is evaluated against a large number of synthetic and real scenes and proven to be robust to noise, able to detect metal parts, more accurately and more than 10-times faster than PPF and Oriented, Unique and Repeatable (OUR)-Clustered Viewpoint Feature Histogram (CVFH). PMID:28771216

Views of United States physicians and members of the American Medical Association House of Delegates on physician-assisted suicide.

PubMed

Whitney, S N; Brown, B W; Brody, H; Alcser, K H; Bachman, J G; Greely, H T

2001-05-01

To ascertain the views of physicians and physician leaders toward the legalization of physician-assisted suicide. Confidential mail questionnaire. A nationwide random sample of physicians of all ages and specialties, and all members of the American Medical Association (AMA) House of Delegates as of April 1996. Demographic and practice characteristics and attitude toward legalization of physician-assisted suicide. Usable questionnaires were returned by 658 of 930 eligible physicians in the nationwide random sample (71%) and 315 of 390 eligible physicians in the House of Delegates (81%). In the nationwide random sample, 44.5% favored legalization (16.4% definitely and 28.1% probably), 33.9% opposed legalization (20.4% definitely and 13.5% probably), and 22% were unsure. Opposition to legalization was strongly associated with self-defined politically conservative beliefs, religious affiliation, and the importance of religion to the respondent (P <.001). Among members of the AMA House of Delegates, 23.5% favored legalization (7.3% definitely and 16.2% probably), 61.6% opposed legalization (43.5% definitely and 18.1% probably), and 15% were unsure; their views differed significantly from those of the nationwide random sample (P <.001). Given the choice, a majority of both groups would prefer no law at all, with physician-assisted suicide being neither legal nor illegal. Members of the AMA House of Delegates strongly oppose physician-assisted suicide, but rank-and-file physicians show no consensus either for or against its legalization. Although the debate is sometimes adversarial, most physicians in the United States are uncertain or endorse moderate views on assisted suicide.

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

Improved Real-Time Scan Matching Using Corner Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamed, H. A.; Moussa, A. M.; Elhabiby, M. M.; El-Sheimy, N.; Sesay, Abu B.

2016-06-01

The automation of unmanned vehicle operation has gained a lot of research attention, in the last few years, because of its numerous applications. The vehicle localization is more challenging in indoor environments where absolute positioning measurements (e.g. GPS) are typically unavailable. Laser range finders are among the most widely used sensors that help the unmanned vehicles to localize themselves in indoor environments. Typically, automatic real-time matching of the successive scans is performed either explicitly or implicitly by any localization approach that utilizes laser range finders. Many accustomed approaches such as Iterative Closest Point (ICP), Iterative Matching Range Point (IMRP), Iterative Dual Correspondence (IDC), and Polar Scan Matching (PSM) handles the scan matching problem in an iterative fashion which significantly affects the time consumption. Furthermore, the solution convergence is not guaranteed especially in cases of sharp maneuvers or fast movement. This paper proposes an automated real-time scan matching algorithm where the matching process is initialized using the detected corners. This initialization step aims to increase the convergence probability and to limit the number of iterations needed to reach convergence. The corner detection is preceded by line extraction from the laser scans. To evaluate the probability of line availability in indoor environments, various data sets, offered by different research groups, have been tested and the mean numbers of extracted lines per scan for these data sets are ranging from 4.10 to 8.86 lines of more than 7 points. The set of all intersections between extracted lines are detected as corners regardless of the physical intersection of these line segments in the scan. To account for the uncertainties of the detected corners, the covariance of the corners is estimated using the extracted lines variances. The detected corners are used to estimate the transformation parameters between the successive scan using least squares. These estimated transformation parameters are used to calculate an adjusted initialization for scan matching process. The presented method can be employed solely to match the successive scans and also can be used to aid other accustomed iterative methods to achieve more effective and faster converge. The performance and time consumption of the proposed approach is compared with ICP algorithm alone without initialization in different scenarios such as static period, fast straight movement, and sharp manoeuvers.

Outcomes after helicopter versus ground emergency medical services for major trauma--propensity score and instrumental variable analyses: a retrospective nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Tsuchiya, Asuka; Tsutsumi, Yusuke; Yasunaga, Hideo

2016-11-29

Because of a lack of randomized controlled trials and the methodological weakness of currently available observational studies, the benefits of helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) over ground emergency medical services (GEMS) for major trauma patients remain uncertain. The aim of this retrospective nationwide cohort study was to compare the mortality of adults with serious traumatic injuries who were transported by HEMS and GEMS, and to analyze the effects of HEMS in various subpopulations. Using the Japan Trauma Data Bank, we evaluated all adult patients who had an injury severity score ≥ 16 transported by HEMS or GEMS during the daytime between 2004 and 2014. We compared in-hospital mortality between patients transported by HEMS and GEMS using propensity score matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting and instrumental variable analyses to adjust for measured and unmeasured confounding factors. Eligible patients (n = 21,286) from 192 hospitals included 4128 transported by HEMS and 17,158 transported by GEMS. In the propensity score-matched model, there was a significant difference in the in-hospital mortality between HEMS and GEMS groups (22.2 vs. 24.5%, risk difference -2.3% [95% confidence interval, -4.2 to -0.5]; number needed to treat, 43 [95% confidence interval, 24 to 220]). The inverse probability of treatment weighting (20.8% vs. 23.9%; risk difference, -3.9% [95% confidence interval, -5.7 to -2.1]; number needed to treat, 26 [95% confidence interval, 17 to 48]) and instrumental variable analyses showed similar results (risk difference, -6.5% [95% confidence interval, -9.2 to -3.8]; number needed to treat, 15 [95% confidence interval, 11 to 27]). HEMS transport was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality after falls, compression injuries, severe chest injuries, extremity (including pelvic) injuries, and traumatic arrest on arrival to the emergency department. HEMS was associated with a significantly lower mortality than GEMS in adult patients with major traumatic injuries after adjusting for measured and unmeasured confounders.

Bit Error Probability for Maximum Likelihood Decoding of Linear Block Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc P. C.; Rhee, Dojun

1996-01-01

In this paper, the bit error probability P(sub b) for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes is investigated. The contribution of each information bit to P(sub b) is considered. For randomly generated codes, it is shown that the conventional approximation at high SNR P(sub b) is approximately equal to (d(sub H)/N)P(sub s), where P(sub s) represents the block error probability, holds for systematic encoding only. Also systematic encoding provides the minimum P(sub b) when the inverse mapping corresponding to the generator matrix of the code is used to retrieve the information sequence. The bit error performances corresponding to other generator matrix forms are also evaluated. Although derived for codes with a generator matrix randomly generated, these results are shown to provide good approximations for codes used in practice. Finally, for decoding methods which require a generator matrix with a particular structure such as trellis decoding or algebraic-based soft decision decoding, equivalent schemes that reduce the bit error probability are discussed.

Asymptotic Equivalence of Probability Measures and Stochastic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touchette, Hugo

2018-03-01

Let P_n and Q_n be two probability measures representing two different probabilistic models of some system (e.g., an n-particle equilibrium system, a set of random graphs with n vertices, or a stochastic process evolving over a time n) and let M_n be a random variable representing a "macrostate" or "global observable" of that system. We provide sufficient conditions, based on the Radon-Nikodym derivative of P_n and Q_n, for the set of typical values of M_n obtained relative to P_n to be the same as the set of typical values obtained relative to Q_n in the limit n→ ∞. This extends to general probability measures and stochastic processes the well-known thermodynamic-limit equivalence of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, related mathematically to the asymptotic equivalence of conditional and exponentially-tilted measures. In this more general sense, two probability measures that are asymptotically equivalent predict the same typical or macroscopic properties of the system they are meant to model.

HLA Mismatching Strategies for Solid Organ Transplantation – A Balancing Act

PubMed Central

Zachary, Andrea A.; Leffell, Mary S.

2016-01-01

HLA matching provides numerous benefits in organ transplantation including better graft function, fewer rejection episodes, longer graft survival, and the possibility of reduced immunosuppression. Mismatches are attended by more frequent rejection episodes that require increased immunosuppression that, in turn, can increase the risk of infection and malignancy. HLA mismatches also incur the risk of sensitization, which can reduce the opportunity and increase waiting time for a subsequent transplant. However, other factors such as donor age, donor type, and immunosuppression protocol, can affect the benefit derived from matching. Furthermore, finding a well-matched donor may not be possible for all patients and usually prolongs waiting time. Strategies to optimize transplantation for patients without a well-matched donor should take into account the immunologic barrier represented by different mismatches: what are the least immunogenic mismatches considering the patient’s HLA phenotype; should repeated mismatches be avoided; is the patient sensitized to HLA and, if so, what are the strengths of the patient’s antibodies? This information can then be used to define the HLA type of an immunologically optimal donor and the probability of such a donor occurring. A probability that is considered to be too low may require expanding the donor population through paired donation or modifying what is acceptable, which may require employing treatment to overcome immunologic barriers such as increased immunosuppression or desensitization. Thus, transplantation must strike a balance between the risk associated with waiting for the optimal donor and the risk associated with a less than optimal donor. PMID:28003816

On the conservative nature of intragenic recombination

PubMed Central

Drummond, D. Allan; Silberg, Jonathan J.; Meyer, Michelle M.; Wilke, Claus O.; Arnold, Frances H.

2005-01-01

Intragenic recombination rapidly creates protein sequence diversity compared with random mutation, but little is known about the relative effects of recombination and mutation on protein function. Here, we compare recombination of the distantly related β-lactamases PSE-4 and TEM-1 to mutation of PSE-4. We show that, among β-lactamase variants containing the same number of amino acid substitutions, variants created by recombination retain function with a significantly higher probability than those generated by random mutagenesis. We present a simple model that accurately captures the differing effects of mutation and recombination in real and simulated proteins with only four parameters: (i) the amino acid sequence distance between parents, (ii) the number of substitutions, (iii) the average probability that random substitutions will preserve function, and (iv) the average probability that substitutions generated by recombination will preserve function. Our results expose a fundamental functional enrichment in regions of protein sequence space accessible by recombination and provide a framework for evaluating whether the relative rates of mutation and recombination observed in nature reflect the underlying imbalance in their effects on protein function. PMID:15809422

On the conservative nature of intragenic recombination.

PubMed

Drummond, D Allan; Silberg, Jonathan J; Meyer, Michelle M; Wilke, Claus O; Arnold, Frances H

2005-04-12

Intragenic recombination rapidly creates protein sequence diversity compared with random mutation, but little is known about the relative effects of recombination and mutation on protein function. Here, we compare recombination of the distantly related beta-lactamases PSE-4 and TEM-1 to mutation of PSE-4. We show that, among beta-lactamase variants containing the same number of amino acid substitutions, variants created by recombination retain function with a significantly higher probability than those generated by random mutagenesis. We present a simple model that accurately captures the differing effects of mutation and recombination in real and simulated proteins with only four parameters: (i) the amino acid sequence distance between parents, (ii) the number of substitutions, (iii) the average probability that random substitutions will preserve function, and (iv) the average probability that substitutions generated by recombination will preserve function. Our results expose a fundamental functional enrichment in regions of protein sequence space accessible by recombination and provide a framework for evaluating whether the relative rates of mutation and recombination observed in nature reflect the underlying imbalance in their effects on protein function.

Hurdles and sorting by inversions: combinatorial, statistical, and experimental results.

PubMed

Swenson, Krister M; Lin, Yu; Rajan, Vaibhav; Moret, Bernard M E

2009-10-01

As data about genomic architecture accumulates, genomic rearrangements have attracted increasing attention. One of the main rearrangement mechanisms, inversions (also called reversals), was characterized by Hannenhalli and Pevzner and this characterization in turn extended by various authors. The characterization relies on the concepts of breakpoints, cycles, and obstructions colorfully named hurdles and fortresses. In this paper, we study the probability of generating a hurdle in the process of sorting a permutation if one does not take special precautions to avoid them (as in a randomized algorithm, for instance). To do this we revisit and extend the work of Caprara and of Bergeron by providing simple and exact characterizations of the probability of encountering a hurdle in a random permutation. Using similar methods we provide the first asymptotically tight analysis of the probability that a fortress exists in a random permutation. Finally, we study other aspects of hurdles, both analytically and through experiments: when are they created in a sequence of sorting inversions, how much later are they detected, and how much work may need to be undone to return to a sorting sequence.