Geographic variations in cervical cancer risk in San Luis Potosí state, Mexico: A spatial statistical approach.

PubMed

Terán-Hernández, Mónica; Ramis-Prieto, Rebeca; Calderón-Hernández, Jaqueline; Garrocho-Rangel, Carlos Félix; Campos-Alanís, Juan; Ávalos-Lozano, José Antonio; Aguilar-Robledo, Miguel

2016-09-29

Worldwide, Cervical Cancer (CC) is the fourth most common type of cancer and cause of death in women. It is a significant public health problem, especially in low and middle-income/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) countries. In the past decade, several studies of CC have been published, that identify the main modifiable and non-modifiable CC risk factors for Mexican women. However, there are no studies that attempt to explain the residual spatial variation in CC incidence In Mexico, i.e. spatial variation that cannot be ascribed to known, spatially varying risk factors. This paper uses a spatial statistical methodology that takes into account spatial variation in socio-economic factors and accessibility to health services, whilst allowing for residual, unexplained spatial variation in risk. To describe residual spatial variations in CC risk, we used generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with both spatially structured and unstructured random effects, using a Bayesian approach to inference. The highest risk is concentrated in the southeast, where the Matlapa and Aquismón municipalities register excessive risk, with posterior probabilities greater than 0.8. The lack of coverage of Cervical Cancer-Screening Programme (CCSP) (RR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.12-1.22), Marginalisation Index (RR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.03-1.08), and lack of accessibility to health services (RR 1.01, 95 % CI 1.00-1.03) were significant covariates. There are substantial differences between municipalities, with high-risk areas mainly in low-resource areas lacking accessibility to health services for CC. Our results clearly indicate the presence of spatial patterns, and the relevance of the spatial analysis for public health intervention. Ignoring the spatial variability means to continue a public policy that does not tackle deficiencies in its national CCSP and to keep disadvantaging and disempowering Mexican women in regard to their health care.

A Metacommunity Framework for Enhancing the Effectiveness of Biological Monitoring Strategies

PubMed Central

Roque, Fabio O.; Cottenie, Karl

2012-01-01

Because of inadequate knowledge and funding, the use of biodiversity indicators is often suggested as a way to support management decisions. Consequently, many studies have analyzed the performance of certain groups as indicator taxa. However, in addition to knowing whether certain groups can adequately represent the biodiversity as a whole, we must also know whether they show similar responses to the main structuring processes affecting biodiversity. Here we present an application of the metacommunity framework for evaluating the effectiveness of biodiversity indicators. Although the metacommunity framework has contributed to a better understanding of biodiversity patterns, there is still limited discussion about its implications for conservation and biomonitoring. We evaluated the effectiveness of indicator taxa in representing spatial variation in macroinvertebrate community composition in Atlantic Forest streams, and the processes that drive this variation. We focused on analyzing whether some groups conform to environmental processes and other groups are more influenced by spatial processes, and on how this can help in deciding which indicator group or groups should be used. We showed that a relatively small subset of taxa from the metacommunity would represent 80% of the variation in community composition shown by the entire metacommunity. Moreover, this subset does not have to be composed of predetermined taxonomic groups, but rather can be defined based on random subsets. We also found that some random subsets composed of a small number of genera performed better in responding to major environmental gradients. There were also random subsets that seemed to be affected by spatial processes, which could indicate important historical processes. We were able to integrate in the same theoretical and practical framework, the selection of biodiversity surrogates, indicators of environmental conditions, and more importantly, an explicit integration of environmental and spatial processes into the selection approach. PMID:22937068

A Spatial Poisson Hurdle Model for Exploring Geographic Variation in Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Neelon, Brian; Ghosh, Pulak; Loebs, Patrick F.

2012-01-01

Summary We develop a spatial Poisson hurdle model to explore geographic variation in emergency department (ED) visits while accounting for zero inflation. The model consists of two components: a Bernoulli component that models the probability of any ED use (i.e., at least one ED visit per year), and a truncated Poisson component that models the number of ED visits given use. Together, these components address both the abundance of zeros and the right-skewed nature of the nonzero counts. The model has a hierarchical structure that incorporates patient- and area-level covariates, as well as spatially correlated random effects for each areal unit. Because regions with high rates of ED use are likely to have high expected counts among users, we model the spatial random effects via a bivariate conditionally autoregressive (CAR) prior, which introduces dependence between the components and provides spatial smoothing and sharing of information across neighboring regions. Using a simulation study, we show that modeling the between-component correlation reduces bias in parameter estimates. We adopt a Bayesian estimation approach, and the model can be fit using standard Bayesian software. We apply the model to a study of patient and neighborhood factors influencing emergency department use in Durham County, North Carolina. PMID:23543242

Revisiting crash spatial heterogeneity: A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients approach.

PubMed

Xu, Pengpeng; Huang, Helai; Dong, Ni; Wong, S C

2017-01-01

This study was performed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between crash frequency and related risk factors. A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model was elaborately introduced as a methodological alternative to simultaneously account for the unstructured and spatially structured heterogeneity of the regression coefficients in predicting crash frequencies. The proposed method was appealing in that the parameters were modeled via a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which involved a single set of random effects and a spatial correlation parameter with extreme values corresponding to pure unstructured or pure spatially correlated random effects. A case study using a three-year crash dataset from the Hillsborough County, Florida, was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Empirical analysis confirmed the presence of both unstructured and spatially correlated variations in the effects of contributory factors on severe crash occurrences. The findings also suggested that ignoring spatially structured heterogeneity may result in biased parameter estimates and incorrect inferences, while assuming the regression coefficients to be spatially clustered only is probably subject to the issue of over-smoothness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial variability in thalweg profiles of a gravel-bed river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann

1999-01-01

This study used successive longitudinal thalweg profiles in gravel-bed rivers to monitor changes in bed topography following floods and associated large sediment inputs. Variations in channel bed elevations, distributions of residual water depths, percentage of channel length occupied by riffles, and a spatial autocorrelation coefficient (Moran's I) were used to quantify changes in morphological diversity and spatial structure in Redwood Creek basin, northwestern California. Bed topography in Redwood Creek and its major tributaries consists primarily of a series of pools and riffles. The size, frequency and spatial distribution of the pools and riffles have changed significantly during the past 20 years. Following large floods and high sediment input in Redwood Creek and its tributaries in 1975, variation in channel bed elevations was low and the percentage of the channel length occupied by riffles was high. Over the next 20 years, variation in bed elevations increased while the length of channel occupied by riffles decreased. An index [(standard deviation of residual water depth/bankfull depth) × 100] was developed to compare variations in bed elevation over a range of stream sizes, with a higher index being indicative of greater morphological diversity. Spatial autocorrelation in the bed elevation data was apparent at both fine and coarse scales in many of the thalweg profiles and the observed spatial pattern of bed elevations was found to be related to the dominant channel material and the time since disturbance. River reaches in which forced pools dominated, and in which large woody debris and bed particles could not be easily mobilized, exhibited a random distribution of bed elevations. In contrast, in reaches where alternate bars dominated, and both wood and gravel were readily transported, regularly spaced bed topography developed at a spacing that increased with time since disturbance. This pattern of regularly spaced bed features was reversed following a 12-year flood when bed elevations became more randomly arranged.

[Distribution patterns of canopy and understory tree species at local scale in a Tierra Firme forest, the Colombian Amazonia].

PubMed

Barreto-Silva, Juan Sebastian; López, Dairon Cárdenas; Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque

2014-03-01

The effect of environmental variation on the structure of tree communities in tropical forests is still under debate. There is evidence that in landscapes like Tierra Firme forest, where the environmental gradient decreases at a local level, the effect of soil on the distribution patterns of plant species is minimal, happens to be random or is due to biological processes. In contrast, in studies with different kinds of plants from tropical forests, a greater effect on floristic composition of varying soil and topography has been reported. To assess this, the current study was carried out in a permanent plot of ten hectares in the Amacayacu National Park, Colombian Amazonia. To run the analysis, floristic and environmental variations were obtained according to tree species abundance categories and growth forms. In order to quantify the role played by both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, the variation of the spatial configuration was included. We used Detrended Correspondence Analysis and Canonical Correspondence Analysis, followed by a variation partitioning, to analyze the species distribution patterns. The spatial template was evaluated using the Principal Coordinates of Neighbor Matrix method. We recorded 14 074 individuals from 1 053 species and 80 families. The most abundant families were Myristicaceae, Moraceae, Meliaceae, Arecaceae and Lecythidaceae, coinciding with other studies from Northwest Amazonia. Beta diversity was relatively low within the plot. Soils were very poor, had high aluminum concentration and were predominantly clayey. The floristic differences explained along the ten hectares plot were mainly associated to biological processes, such as dispersal limitation. The largest proportion of community variation in our dataset was unexplained by either environmental or spatial data. In conclusion, these results support random processes as the major drivers of the spatial variation of tree species at a local scale on Tierra Firme forests of Amacayacu National Park, and suggest reserve's size as a key element to ensure the conservation of plant diversity at both regional and local levels.

Spatial pattern of Baccharis platypoda shrub as determined by sex and life stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, Darliana da Costa; de Oliveira, Marcio Leles Romarco; Pereira, Israel Marinho; Gonzaga, Anne Priscila Dias; de Moura, Cristiane Coelho; Machado, Evandro Luiz Mendonça

2017-11-01

Spatial patterns of dioecious species can be determined by their nutritional requirements and intraspecific competition, apart from being a response to environmental heterogeneity. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial pattern of populations of a dioecious shrub reporting to sex and reproductive stage patterns of individuals. Sampling was carried out in three areas located in the meridional portion of Serra do Espinhaço, where in individuals of the studied species were mapped. The spatial pattern was determined through O-ring analysis and Ripley's K-function and the distribution of individuals' frequencies was verified through x2 test. Populations in two areas showed an aggregate spatial pattern tending towards random or uniform according to the observed scale. Male and female adults presented an aggregate pattern at smaller scales, while random and uniform patterns were verified above 20 m for individuals of both sexes of the areas A2 and A3. Young individuals presented an aggregate pattern in all areas and spatial independence in relation to adult individuals, especially female plants. The interactions between individuals of both genders presented spatial independence with respect to spatial distribution. Baccharis platypoda showed characteristics in accordance with the spatial distribution of savannic and dioecious species, whereas the population was aggregated tending towards random at greater spatial scales. Young individuals showed an aggregated pattern at different scales compared to adults, without positive association between them. Female and male adult individuals presented similar characteristics, confirming that adult individuals at greater scales are randomly distributed despite their distinct preferences for environments with moisture variation.

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan; Adams, Michael J.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Bury, R. Bruce

2011-01-01

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N-mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non-detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

Using estimates of natural variation to detect ecologically important change in forest spatial patterns: a case study, Cascade Range, eastern Washington.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; R. Brion Salter

1999-01-01

Using hierarchical clustering techniques, we grouped subwatersheds on the eastern slope of the Cascade Range in Washington State into ecological subregions by similarity of area in potential vegetation and climate attributes. We then built spatially continuous historical and current vegetation maps for 48 randomly selected subwatersheds from interpretations of 1938-49...

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Soil Bacteria Richness, Composition, and Function in a Neotropical Rainforest

PubMed Central

Kivlin, Stephanie N; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-01-01

The high diversity of tree species has traditionally been considered an important controller of belowground processes in tropical rainforests. However, soil water availability and resources are also primary regulators of soil bacteria in many ecosystems. Separating the effects of these biotic and abiotic factors in the tropics is challenging because of their high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. To determine the drivers of tropical soil bacteria, we examined tree species effects using experimental tree monocultures and secondary forests at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. A randomized block design captured spatial variation and we sampled at four dates across two years to assess temporal variation. We measured bacteria richness, phylogenetic diversity, community composition, biomass, and functional potential. All bacteria parameters varied significantly across dates. In addition, bacteria richness and phylogenetic diversity were affected by the interaction of vegetation type and date, whereas bacteria community composition was affected by the interaction of vegetation type and block. Shifts in bacteria community richness and composition were unrelated to shifts in enzyme function, suggesting physiological overlap among taxa. Based on the observed temporal and spatial heterogeneity, our understanding of tropical soil bacteria will benefit from additional work to determine the optimal temporal and spatial scales for sampling. Understanding spatial and temporal variation will facilitate prediction of how tropical soil microbes will respond to future environmental change. PMID:27391450

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Soil Bacteria Richness, Composition, and Function in a Neotropical Rainforest.

PubMed

Kivlin, Stephanie N; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-01-01

The high diversity of tree species has traditionally been considered an important controller of belowground processes in tropical rainforests. However, soil water availability and resources are also primary regulators of soil bacteria in many ecosystems. Separating the effects of these biotic and abiotic factors in the tropics is challenging because of their high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. To determine the drivers of tropical soil bacteria, we examined tree species effects using experimental tree monocultures and secondary forests at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. A randomized block design captured spatial variation and we sampled at four dates across two years to assess temporal variation. We measured bacteria richness, phylogenetic diversity, community composition, biomass, and functional potential. All bacteria parameters varied significantly across dates. In addition, bacteria richness and phylogenetic diversity were affected by the interaction of vegetation type and date, whereas bacteria community composition was affected by the interaction of vegetation type and block. Shifts in bacteria community richness and composition were unrelated to shifts in enzyme function, suggesting physiological overlap among taxa. Based on the observed temporal and spatial heterogeneity, our understanding of tropical soil bacteria will benefit from additional work to determine the optimal temporal and spatial scales for sampling. Understanding spatial and temporal variation will facilitate prediction of how tropical soil microbes will respond to future environmental change.

Effect of fertility on secondary sex ratio and twinning rate in Sweden, 1749-1870.

PubMed

Fellman, Johan; Eriksson, Aldur W

2015-02-01

We analyzed the effect of total fertility rate (TFR) and crude birth rate (CBR) on the number of males per 100 females at birth, also called the secondary sex ratio (SR), and on the twinning rate (TWR). Earlier studies have noted regional variations in TWR and racial differences in the SR. Statistical analyses have shown that comparisons between SRs demand large data sets because random fluctuations in moderate data are marked. Consequently, reliable results presuppose national birth data. Here, we analyzed historical demographic data and their regional variations between counties in Sweden. We built spatial models for the TFR in 1860 and the CBR in 1751-1870, and as regressors we used geographical coordinates for the provincial capitals of the counties. For both variables, we obtained significant spatial variations, albeit of different patterns and power. The SR among the live-born in 1749-1869 and the TWR in 1751-1860 showed slight spatial variations. The influence of CBR and TFR on the SR and TWR was examined and statistical significant effects were found.

Spatial Analysis of Hospital Incidence and in Hospital Mortality of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Germany: Secondary Data Analysis of Nationwide Hospital Episode (DRG) Data.

PubMed

Kuehnl, Andreas; Salvermoser, Michael; Erk, Alexander; Trenner, Matthias; Schmid, Volker; Eckstein, Hans-Henning

2018-06-01

This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution and regional variation of the hospital incidence and in hospital mortality of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) in Germany. German DRG statistics (2011-2014) were analysed. Patients with ruptured AAA (rAAA, I71.3, treated or not) and patients with non-ruptured AAA (nrAAA, I71.4, treated by open or endovascular aneurysm repair) were included. Age, sex, and risk standardisation was done using standard statistical procedures. Regional variation was quantified using systematic component of variation. To analyse spatial auto-correlation and spatial pattern, global Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* were calculated. A total of 50,702 cases were included. Raw hospital incidence of AAA was 15.7 per 100,000 inhabitants (nrAAA 13.1; all rAAA 2.7; treated rAAA 1.6). The standardised hospital incidence of AAA ranged from 6.3 to 30.3 per 100,000. Systematic component of variation proportion was 96% in nrAAA and 55% in treated rAAA. Incidence rates of all AAA were significantly clustered with above average values in the northwestern parts of Germany and below average values in the south and eastern regions. Standardised mortality of nrAAA ranged from 1.7% to 4.3%, with that of treated rAAA ranging from 28% to 52%. Regional variation and spatial distribution of standardised mortality was not different from random. There was significant regional variation and clustering of the hospital incidence of AAA in Germany, with higher rates in the northwest and lower rates in the southeast. There was no significant variation in standardised (age/sex/risk) mortality between counties. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Separating temperature from other factors in phenological measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Mark D.; Hanes, Jonathan M.; Liang, Liang

2014-09-01

Phenological observations offer a simple and effective way to measure climate change effects on the biosphere. While some species in northern mixed forests show a highly sensitive site preference to microenvironmental differences (i.e., the species is present in certain areas and absent in others), others with a more plastic environmental response (e.g., Acer saccharum, sugar maple) allow provisional separation of the universal "background" phenological variation caused by in situ (possibly biological/genetic) variation from the microclimatic gradients in air temperature. Moran's I tests for spatial autocorrelation among the phenological data showed significant ( α ≤ 0.05) clustering across the study area, but random patterns within the microclimates themselves, with isolated exceptions. In other words, the presence of microclimates throughout the study area generally results in spatial autocorrelation because they impact the overall phenological development of sugar maple trees. However, within each microclimate (where temperature conditions are relatively uniform) there is little or no spatial autocorrelation because phenological differences are due largely to randomly distributed in situ factors. The phenological responses from 2008 and 2009 for two sugar maple phenological stages showed the relationship between air temperature degree-hour departure and phenological change ranged from 0.5 to 1.2 days earlier for each additional 100 degree-hours. Further, the standard deviations of phenological event dates within individual microclimates (for specific events and years) ranged from 2.6 to 3.8 days. Thus, that range of days is inferred to be the "background" phenological variation caused by factors other than air temperature variations, such as genetic differences between individuals.

Structured Spatial Modeling and Mapping of Domestic Violence Against Women of Reproductive Age in Rwanda.

PubMed

Habyarimana, Faustin; Zewotir, Temesgen; Ramroop, Shaun

2018-03-01

The main objective of this study was to assess the risk factors and spatial correlates of domestic violence against women of reproductive age in Rwanda. A structured spatial approach was used to account for the nonlinear nature of some covariates and the spatial variability on domestic violence. The nonlinear effect was modeled through second-order random walk, and the structured spatial effect was modeled through Gaussian Markov Random Fields specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive model. The data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2014/2015 were used as an application. The findings of this study revealed that the risk factors of domestic violence against women are the wealth quintile of the household, the size of the household, the husband or partner's age, the husband or partner's level of education, ownership of the house, polygamy, the alcohol consumption status of the husband or partner, the woman's perception of wife-beating attitude, and the use of contraceptive methods. The study also highlighted the significant spatial variation of domestic violence against women at district level.

[Temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological risk in Shunyi, Beijing, China based on landscape structure.

PubMed

Qing, Feng Ting; Peng, Yu

2016-05-01

Based on the remote sensing data in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2013, this article classified the landscape types of Shunyi, and the ecological risk index was built based on landscape disturbance index and landscape fragility. The spatial auto-correlation and geostatistical analysis by GS + and ArcGIS was used to study temporal and spatial changes of ecological risk. The results showed that eco-risk degree in the study region had positive spatial correlation which decreased with the increasing grain size. Within a certain grain range (<12 km), the spatial auto-correlation had an obvious dependence on scale. The random variation of spatial heterogeneity was less than spatial auto-correlation variation from 1997 to 2013, which meant the auto-correlation had a dominant role in spatial heterogeneity. The ecological risk of Shunyi was mainly at moderate level during the study period. The area of the district with higher and lower ecological risk increased, while that of mode-rate ecological risk decreased. The area with low ecological risk was mainly located in the airport region and forest of southeast Shunyi, while that with high ecological risk was mainly concentrated in the water landscape, such as the banks of Chaobai River.

Phylogeography Takes a Relaxed Random Walk in Continuous Space and Time

PubMed Central

Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Welch, John J.; Suchard, Marc A.

2010-01-01

Research aimed at understanding the geographic context of evolutionary histories is burgeoning across biological disciplines. Recent endeavors attempt to interpret contemporaneous genetic variation in the light of increasingly detailed geographical and environmental observations. Such interest has promoted the development of phylogeographic inference techniques that explicitly aim to integrate such heterogeneous data. One promising development involves reconstructing phylogeographic history on a continuous landscape. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical approach to infer continuous phylogeographic diffusion using random walk models while simultaneously reconstructing the evolutionary history in time from molecular sequence data. Moreover, by accommodating branch-specific variation in dispersal rates, we relax the most restrictive assumption of the standard Brownian diffusion process and demonstrate increased statistical efficiency in spatial reconstructions of overdispersed random walks by analyzing both simulated and real viral genetic data. We further illustrate how drawing inference about summary statistics from a fully specified stochastic process over both sequence evolution and spatial movement reveals important characteristics of a rabies epidemic. Together with recent advances in discrete phylogeographic inference, the continuous model developments furnish a flexible statistical framework for biogeographical reconstructions that is easily expanded upon to accommodate various landscape genetic features. PMID:20203288

Spatial distribution, temporal variation and specificity of microhabitat of Tropisternus species (Coleoptera: Hydrophilidae) in permanent ponds.

PubMed

Gómez Lutz, M C; Kehr, A I; Fernández, L A

2015-06-01

The spatial distribution and temporal variation of 11 species of Tropisternus were analyzed in two permanent ponds located in the province of Corrientes, Argentina. Samples were collected every 15 days, between October 2010 and March 2011. The species recorded were Tropisternus collaris (Fabricius), Tropisternus ovalis Castelnau, Tropisternus laevis (Sturm), Tropisternus lateralis limbatus (Brullé), Tropisternus longispina Fernández & Bachmann, Tropisternus carinispina Orchymont, Tropisternus bourmeisteri Fernández & Bachmann, Tropisternus apicipalpis (Chevrolat), Tropisternus dilatatus Bruch, Tropisternus obesus Bruch, and Tropisternus ignoratus Knisch. The first four were present in higher proportions than the remaining during most of the study period. The spatial distribution of individuals was mostly related to the homogeneity or heterogeneity of the ecosystem in relation to microhabitats with aquatic vegetation: In ponds with different microhabitats, individuals were mainly aggregated, whereas in ponds with homogenous features, individuals were randomly distributed. However, when species were analyzed individually, the spatial distribution and the use of microhabitat by each species were different with respect to preference and behavior.

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory Mission: Watching the Earth Breathe Mapping CO2 from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boain, Ron

2007-01-01

Approach: Collect spatially resolved, high resolution spectroscopic observations of CO2 and O2 absorption in reflected sunlight. Use these data to resolve spatial and temporal variations in the column averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction, X(sub CO2) over the sunlit hemisphere. Employ independent calibration and validation approaches to produce X(sub CO2) estimates with random errors and biases no larger than 1-2 ppm (0.3-0.5%) on regional scales at monthly intervals.

Matching Deep Tow Camera study and Sea Floor geochemical characterization of gas migration at the Tainan Ridge, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, L. F.; Lien, K. L.; Hsieh, I. C.; Lin, S.

2017-12-01

Methane seep in deep sea environment could lead to build up of chemosynthesis communities, and a number of geological and biological anomalies as compare to the surrounding area. In order to examine the linkage between seep anomalies and those at the vicinity background area, and to detail mapping those spatial variations, we used a deep towed camera system (TowCam) to survey seafloor on the Tainan Ridge, Northeastern South China Sea (SCS). The underwater sea floor pictures could provide better spatial variations to demonstrate impact of methane seep on the sea floor. Water column variations of salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen were applied to delineate fine scale variations at the study area. In addition, sediment cores were collected for chemical analyses to confirm the existence of local spatial variations. Our results show large spatial variations existed as a result of differences in methane flux. In fact, methane is the driving force for the observed biogeochemical variations in the water column, on the sea floor, and in the sediment. Of the area we have surveyed, there are approximately 7% of total towcam survey data showing abnormal water properties. Corresponding to the water column anomalies, underwater sea floor pictures taken from those places showed that chemosynthetic clams and muscles could be identified, together with authigenic carbonate buildups, and bacterial mats. Moreover, sediment cores with chemical anomalies also matched those in the water column and on the sea floor. These anomalies, however, represent only a small portion of the area surveyed and could not be identified with typical (random) coring method. Methane seep, therefore, require tedious and multiple types of surveys to better understand the scale and magnitude of seep and biogeochemical anomalies those were driven by gas migrations.

Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagleson, P. S.; Fennessy, N. M.; Wang, Qinliang; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

1987-01-01

Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.

Controls on the spatial variability of key soil properties: comparing field data with a mechanistic soilscape evolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanwalleghem, T.; Román, A.; Giraldez, J. V.

2016-12-01

There is a need for better understanding the processes influencing soil formation and the resulting distribution of soil properties. Soil properties can exhibit strong spatial variation, even at the small catchment scale. Especially soil carbon pools in semi-arid, mountainous areas are highly uncertain because bulk density and stoniness are very heterogeneous and rarely measured explicitly. In this study, we explore the spatial variability in key soil properties (soil carbon stocks, stoniness, bulk density and soil depth) as a function of processes shaping the critical zone (weathering, erosion, soil water fluxes and vegetation patterns). We also compare the potential of a geostatistical versus a mechanistic soil formation model (MILESD) for predicting these key soil properties. Soil core samples were collected from 67 locations at 6 depths. Total soil organic carbon stocks were 4.38 kg m-2. Solar radiation proved to be the key variable controlling soil carbon distribution. Stone content was mostly controlled by slope, indicating the importance of erosion. Spatial distribution of bulk density was found to be highly random. Finally, total carbon stocks were predicted using a random forest model whose main covariates were solar radiation and NDVI. The model predicts carbon stocks that are double as high on north versus south-facing slopes. However, validation showed that these covariates only explained 25% of the variation in the dataset. Apparently, present-day landscape and vegetation properties are not sufficient to fully explain variability in the soil carbon stocks in this complex terrain under natural vegetation. This is attributed to a high spatial variability in bulk density and stoniness, key variables controlling carbon stocks. Similar results were obtained with the mechanistic soil formation model MILESD, suggesting that more complex models might be needed to further explore this high spatial variability.

[Stochastic characteristics of daily precipitation and its spatiotemporal difference over China based on information entropy].

PubMed

Li, Xin Xin; Sang, Yan Fang; Xie, Ping; Liu, Chang Ming

2018-04-01

Daily precipitation process in China showed obvious randomness and spatiotemporal variation. It is important to accurately understand the influence of precipitation changes on control of flood and waterlogging disaster. Using the daily precipitation data measured at 520 stations in China during 1961-2013, we quantified the stochastic characteristics of daily precipitation over China based on the index of information entropy. Results showed that the randomness of daily precipitation in the southeast region were larger than that in the northwest region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of stochastic characteristics of precipitation was different at various grades. Stochastic characteri-stics of P 0 (precipitation at 0.1-10 mm) was large, but the spatial variation was not obvious. The stochastic characteristics of P 10 (precipitation at 10-25 mm) and P 25 (precipitation at 25-50 mm) were the largest and their spatial difference was obvious. P 50 (precipitation ≥50 mm) had the smallest stochastic characteristics and the most obviously spatial difference. Generally, the entropy values of precipitation obviously increased over the last five decades, indicating more significantly stochastic characteristics of precipitation (especially the obvious increase of heavy precipitation events) in most region over China under the scenarios of global climate change. Given that the spatial distribution and long-term trend of entropy values of daily precipitation could reflect thespatial distribution of stochastic characteristics of precipitation, our results could provide scientific basis for the control of flood and waterlogging disaster, the layout of agricultural planning, and the planning of ecological environment.

Computerized stratified random site-selection approaches for design of a ground-water-quality sampling network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, J.C.

1990-01-01

Computer software was written to randomly select sites for a ground-water-quality sampling network. The software uses digital cartographic techniques and subroutines from a proprietary geographic information system. The report presents the approaches, computer software, and sample applications. It is often desirable to collect ground-water-quality samples from various areas in a study region that have different values of a spatial characteristic, such as land-use or hydrogeologic setting. A stratified network can be used for testing hypotheses about relations between spatial characteristics and water quality, or for calculating statistical descriptions of water-quality data that account for variations that correspond to the spatial characteristic. In the software described, a study region is subdivided into areal subsets that have a common spatial characteristic to stratify the population into several categories from which sampling sites are selected. Different numbers of sites may be selected from each category of areal subsets. A population of potential sampling sites may be defined by either specifying a fixed population of existing sites, or by preparing an equally spaced population of potential sites. In either case, each site is identified with a single category, depending on the value of the spatial characteristic of the areal subset in which the site is located. Sites are selected from one category at a time. One of two approaches may be used to select sites. Sites may be selected randomly, or the areal subsets in the category can be grouped into cells and sites selected randomly from each cell.

Spatial and phylogenetic variation in plant defense in a tropical moist forest canopy community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McManus, K. M.; Asner, G. P.; Martin, R.

2013-12-01

Plants employ physical and chemical defenses to mitigate damage caused by herbivory. Spatial patterns of plant defense may provide insight into the role of plant-herbivore interactions in the assembly of plant communities. Within plant communities, the spatial overdispersion of anti-herbivore defenses by individuals may reflect a strategy to avoid host shifts from herbivore assemblages of neighboring plants. However, variation in plant defense may also result from trade-offs between foliar investment into defense and growth, mediated by variations in abiotic nutrient availability, or constrained by phylogeny. We measured four defensive traits (leaf toughness, total phenols, condensed tannins, and hydrolysable tannins) and three growth traits (LMA, C:N, total protein) of outer canopy foliage for 345 canopy trees representing 78 species, 65 genera, and 34 families in a moist tropical rainforest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The outer canopy provides an important, but rarely evaluated, cross-sectional image of the tropical forest ecosystem, and observations at this scale may provide an important link between field and remote sensing based studies. We used existing data on edaphic and geological properties to investigate the relationships of abiotic nutrient variation on variation in defense. Using regression and nested random-effects variance modeling, we found strong phylogenetic association with defensive traits at the family and species level, and little evidence for a trade-off between defensive traits. Greater understanding of phylogenetic structure in trait variation may yield improved characterizations of tropical biodiversity, from functional traits to risk assessments.

Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

2014-12-01

Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

A comparison of regional and national values for recovering threatened and endangered marine species in the United States.

PubMed

Wallmo, Kristy; Lew, Daniel K

2016-09-01

It is generally acknowledged that willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for environmental goods exhibit some degree of spatial variation. In a policy context, spatial variation in threatened and endangered species values is important to understand, as the benefit stream from policies affecting threatened and endangered species may vary locally, regionally, or among certain population segments. In this paper we present WTP estimates for eight different threatened and endangered marine species estimated from a stated preference choice experiment. WTP is estimated at two different spatial scales: (a) a random sample of over 5000 U.S. households and (b) geographically embedded samples (relative to the U.S. household sample) of nine U.S. Census regions. We conduct region-to-region and region-to-nation statistical comparisons to determine whether species values differ among regions and between each region and the entire U.S. Our results show limited spatial variation between national values and values estimated from regionally embedded samples, and differences are only found for three of the eight species. More variation exists between regions, and for all species there is a significant difference in at least one region-to-region comparison. Given that policy analyses involving threatened and endangered marine species can often be regional in scope (e.g., ecosystem management) or may disparately affect different regions, our results should be of high interest to the marine management community. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantitative analysis of biological tissues using Fourier transform-second-harmonic generation imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambekar Ramachandra Rao, Raghu; Mehta, Monal R.; Toussaint, Kimani C., Jr.

2010-02-01

We demonstrate the use of Fourier transform-second-harmonic generation (FT-SHG) imaging of collagen fibers as a means of performing quantitative analysis of obtained images of selected spatial regions in porcine trachea, ear, and cornea. Two quantitative markers, preferred orientation and maximum spatial frequency are proposed for differentiating structural information between various spatial regions of interest in the specimens. The ear shows consistent maximum spatial frequency and orientation as also observed in its real-space image. However, there are observable changes in the orientation and minimum feature size of fibers in the trachea indicating a more random organization. Finally, the analysis is applied to a 3D image stack of the cornea. It is shown that the standard deviation of the orientation is sensitive to the randomness in fiber orientation. Regions with variations in the maximum spatial frequency, but with relatively constant orientation, suggest that maximum spatial frequency is useful as an independent quantitative marker. We emphasize that FT-SHG is a simple, yet powerful, tool for extracting information from images that is not obvious in real space. This technique can be used as a quantitative biomarker to assess the structure of collagen fibers that may change due to damage from disease or physical injury.

Recent advances in scalable non-Gaussian geostatistics: The generalized sub-Gaussian model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, Alberto; Riva, Monica; Neuman, Shlomo P.

2018-07-01

Geostatistical analysis has been introduced over half a century ago to allow quantifying seemingly random spatial variations in earth quantities such as rock mineral content or permeability. The traditional approach has been to view such quantities as multivariate Gaussian random functions characterized by one or a few well-defined spatial correlation scales. There is, however, mounting evidence that many spatially varying quantities exhibit non-Gaussian behavior over a multiplicity of scales. The purpose of this minireview is not to paint a broad picture of the subject and its treatment in the literature. Instead, we focus on very recent advances in the recognition and analysis of this ubiquitous phenomenon, which transcends hydrology and the Earth sciences, brought about largely by our own work. In particular, we use porosity data from a deep borehole to illustrate typical aspects of such scalable non-Gaussian behavior, describe a very recent theoretical model that (for the first time) captures all these behavioral aspects in a comprehensive manner, show how this allows generating random realizations of the quantity conditional on sampled values, point toward ways of incorporating scalable non-Gaussian behavior in hydrologic analysis, highlight the significance of doing so, and list open questions requiring further research.

The coalescent process in models with selection and recombination.

PubMed

Hudson, R R; Kaplan, N L

1988-11-01

The statistical properties of the process describing the genealogical history of a random sample of genes at a selectively neutral locus which is linked to a locus at which natural selection operates are investigated. It is found that the equations describing this process are simple modifications of the equations describing the process assuming that the two loci are completely linked. Thus, the statistical properties of the genealogical process for a random sample at a neutral locus linked to a locus with selection follow from the results obtained for the selected locus. Sequence data from the alcohol dehydrogenase (Adh) region of Drosophila melanogaster are examined and compared to predictions based on the theory. It is found that the spatial distribution of nucleotide differences between Fast and Slow alleles of Adh is very similar to the spatial distribution predicted if balancing selection operates to maintain the allozyme variation at the Adh locus. The spatial distribution of nucleotide differences between different Slow alleles of Adh do not match the predictions of this simple model very well.

Implicit learning of non-spatial sequences in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

MARVEL, CHERIE L.; SCHWARTZ, BARBARA L.; HOWARD, DARLENE V.; HOWARD, JAMES H.

2006-01-01

Recent studies have reported abnormal implicit learning of sequential patterns in patients with schizophrenia. Because these studies were based on visuospatial cues, the question remained whether patients were impaired simply due to the demands of spatial processing. This study examined implicit sequence learning in 24 patients with schizophrenia and 24 healthy controls using a non-spatial variation of the serial reaction time test (SRT) in which pattern stimuli alternated with random stimuli on every other trial. Both groups showed learning by responding faster and more accurately to pattern trials than to random trials. Patients, however, showed a smaller magnitude of sequence learning. Both groups were unable to demonstrate explicit knowledge of the nature of the pattern, confirming that learning occurred without awareness. Clinical variables were not correlated with the patients' learning deficits. Patients with schizophrenia have a decreased ability to develop sensitivity to regularly occurring sequences of events within their environment. This type of deficit may affect an array of cognitive and motor functions that rely on the perception of event regularity. PMID:16248901

Macroscopic Spatial Complexity of the Game of Life Cellular Automaton: A Simple Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Montoya, A. R.; Coronel-Brizio, H. F.; Rodríguez-Achach, M. E.

In this chapter we present a simple data analysis of an ensemble of 20 time series, generated by averaging the spatial positions of the living cells for each state of the Game of Life Cellular Automaton (GoL). We show that at the macroscopic level described by these time series, complexity properties of GoL are also presented and the following emergent properties, typical of data extracted complex systems such as financial or economical come out: variations of the generated time series following an asymptotic power law distribution, large fluctuations tending to be followed by large fluctuations, and small fluctuations tending to be followed by small ones, and fast decay of linear correlations, however, the correlations associated to their absolute variations exhibit a long range memory. Finally, a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of the generated time series, indicates that the GoL spatial macro states described by the time series are not either completely ordered or random, in a measurable and very interesting way.

Socioeconomic Status Accounts for Rapidly Increasing Geographic Variation in the Incidence of Poor Fetal Growth

PubMed Central

Ball, Stephen J.; Jacoby, Peter; Zubrick, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

Fetal growth is an important risk factor for infant morbidity and mortality. In turn, socioeconomic status is a key predictor of fetal growth; however, other sociodemographic factors and environmental effects may also be important. This study modelled geographic variation in poor fetal growth after accounting for socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect for socioeconomic status and a combination of spatially-correlated and spatially-uncorrelated random effects. The dataset comprised 88,246 liveborn singletons, aggregated within suburbs in Perth, Western Australia. Low socioeconomic status was strongly associated with an increased risk of poor fetal growth. An increase in geographic variation of poor fetal growth from 1999–2001 (interquartile odds ratio among suburbs = 1.20) to 2004–2006 (interquartile odds ratio = 1.40) indicated a widening risk disparity by socioeconomic status. Low levels of residual spatial patterns strengthen the case for targeting policies and practices in areas of low socioeconomic status for improved outcomes. This study indicates an alarming increase in geographic inequalities in poor fetal growth in Perth which warrants further research into the specific aspects of socioeconomic status that act as risk factors. PMID:23799513

Correlation analysis of fracture arrangement in space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrett, Randall; Gale, Julia F. W.; Gómez, Leonel A.; Laubach, Stephen E.

2018-03-01

We present new techniques that overcome limitations of standard approaches to documenting spatial arrangement. The new techniques directly quantify spatial arrangement by normalizing to expected values for randomly arranged fractures. The techniques differ in terms of computational intensity, robustness of results, ability to detect anti-correlation, and use of fracture size data. Variation of spatial arrangement across a broad range of length scales facilitates distinguishing clustered and periodic arrangements-opposite forms of organization-from random arrangements. Moreover, self-organized arrangements can be distinguished from arrangements due to extrinsic organization. Traditional techniques for analysis of fracture spacing are hamstrung because they account neither for the sequence of fracture spacings nor for possible coordination between fracture size and position, attributes accounted for by our methods. All of the new techniques reveal fractal clustering in a test case of veins, or cement-filled opening-mode fractures, in Pennsylvanian Marble Falls Limestone. The observed arrangement is readily distinguishable from random and periodic arrangements. Comparison of results that account for fracture size with results that ignore fracture size demonstrates that spatial arrangement is dominated by the sequence of fracture spacings, rather than coordination of fracture size with position. Fracture size and position are not completely independent in this example, however, because large fractures are more clustered than small fractures. Both spatial and size organization of veins here probably emerged from fracture interaction during growth. The new approaches described here, along with freely available software to implement the techniques, can be applied with effect to a wide range of structures, or indeed many other phenomena such as drilling response, where spatial heterogeneity is an issue.

Regional variation in the hierarchical partitioning of diversity in coral-dwelling fishes.

PubMed

Belmaker, Jonathan; Ziv, Yaron; Shashar, Nadav; Connolly, Sean R

2008-10-01

The size of the regional species pool may influence local patterns of diversity. However, it is unclear whether certain spatial scales are less sensitive to regional influences than others. Additive partitioning was used to separate coral-dwelling fish diversity to its alpha and beta components, at multiple scales, in several regions across the Indo-Pacific. We then examined how the relative contribution of these components changes with increased regional diversity. By employing specific random-placement null models, we overcome methodological problems with local-regional regressions. We show that, although alpha and beta diversities within each region are consistently different from random-placement null models, the increase in beta diversities among regions was similar to that predicted once heterogeneity in coral habitat was accounted for. In contrast, alpha diversity within single coral heads was limited and increased less than predicted by the null models. This was correlated with increased intraspecific aggregation in more diverse regions and is consistent with ecological limitations on the number of coexisting species at the local scale. These results suggest that, apart from very small spatial scales, variation in the partitioning of fish diversity along regional species richness gradients is driven overwhelmingly by the corresponding gradients in coral assemblage structure.

Onset of natural convection in a continuously perturbed system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbani, Zohreh; Riaz, Amir

2017-11-01

The convective mixing triggered by gravitational instability plays an important role in CO2 sequestration in saline aquifers. The linear stability analysis and the numerical simulation concerning convective mixing in porous media requires perturbations of small amplitude to be imposed on the concentration field in the form of an initial shape function. In aquifers, however, the instability is triggered by local porosity and permeability. In this work, we consider a canonical 2D homogeneous system where perturbations arise due to spatial variation of porosity in the system. The advantage of this approach is not only the elimination of the required initial shape function, but it also serves as a more realistic approach. Using a reduced nonlinear method, we first explore the effect of harmonic variations of porosity in the transverse and streamwise direction on the onset time of convection and late time behavior. We then obtain the optimal porosity structure that minimizes the convection onset. We further examine the effect of a random porosity distribution, that is independent of the spatial mode of porosity structure, on the convection onset. Using high-order pseudospectral DNS, we explore how the random distribution differs from the modal approach in predicting the onset time.

Spatial-temporal and cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle.

PubMed

Wu, Chang-fu; Liu, L-J Sally; Cullen, Alison; Westberg, Hal; Williamson, John

2011-01-01

In the Seattle Air Toxics Monitoring Pilot Program, we measured 15 hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) at 6 sites for more than a year between 2000 and 2002. Spatial-temporal variations were evaluated with random-effects models and principal component analyses. The potential health risks were further estimated based on the monitored data, with the incorporation of the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. It is found that the temporal variability was generally higher than the spatial variability for most air toxics. The highest temporal variability was observed for tetrachloroethylene (70% temporal vs. 34% spatial variability). Nevertheless, most air toxics still exhibited significant spatial variations, even after accounting for the temporal effects. These results suggest that it would require operating multiple air toxics monitoring sites over a significant period of time with proper monitoring frequency to better evaluate population exposure to HAPs. The median values of the estimated inhalation cancer risks ranged between 4.3 × 10⁻⁵ and 6.0 × 10⁻⁵, with the 5th and 95th percentile levels exceeding the 1 in a million level. VOCs as a whole contributed over 80% of the risk among the HAPs measured and arsenic contributed most substantially to the overall risk associated with metals. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic laser speckle analyzed considering inhomogeneities in the biological sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braga, Roberto A.; González-Peña, Rolando J.; Viana, Dimitri Campos; Rivera, Fernando Pujaico

2017-04-01

Dynamic laser speckle phenomenon allows a contactless and nondestructive way to monitor biological changes that are quantified by second-order statistics applied in the images in time using a secondary matrix known as time history of the speckle pattern (THSP). To avoid being time consuming, the traditional way to build the THSP restricts the data to a line or column. Our hypothesis is that the spatial restriction of the information could compromise the results, particularly when undesirable and unexpected optical inhomogeneities occur, such as in cell culture media. It tested a spatial random approach to collect the points to form a THSP. Cells in a culture medium and in drying paint, representing homogeneous samples in different levels, were tested, and a comparison with the traditional method was carried out. An alternative random selection based on a Gaussian distribution around a desired position was also presented. The results showed that the traditional protocol presented higher variation than the outcomes using the random method. The higher the inhomogeneity of the activity map, the higher the efficiency of the proposed method using random points. The Gaussian distribution proved to be useful when there was a well-defined area to monitor.

Spatial distribution of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and social inequalities in mixed urban and rural areas: a study in the Bretagne administrative region of France.

PubMed

Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Deguen, Séverine; Padilla, Cindy; Siebert, Muriel; Couchoud, Cécile; Vigneau, Cécile; Bayat, Sahar

2015-02-01

Several studies have investigated the implication of biological and environmental factors on geographic variations of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence at large area scales, but none of them assessed the implication of neighbourhood characteristics (healthcare supply, socio-economic level and urbanization degree) on spatial repartition of ESRD. We evaluated the spatial implications of adjustment for neighbourhood characteristics on the spatial distribution of ESRD incidence at the smallest geographic unit in France. All adult patients living in Bretagne and beginning renal replacement therapy during the 2004-09 period were included. Their residential address was geocoded at the census block level. Each census block was characterized by socio-economic deprivation index, healthcare supply and rural/urban typology. Using a spatial scan statistic, we examined whether there were significant clusters of high risk of ESRD incidence. The ESRD incidence was non-randomly spatially distributed, with a cluster of high risk in the western Bretagne region (relative risk, RR = 1.28, P-value = 0.0003). Adjustment for sex, age and neighbourhood characteristics induced cluster shifts. After these adjustments, a significant cluster (P = 0.013) persisted. Our spatial analysis of ESRD incidence at a fine scale, across a mixed rural/urban area, indicated that, beyond age and sex, neighbourhood characteristics explained a great part of spatial distribution of ESRD incidence. However, to better understand spatial variation of ESRD incidence, it would be necessary to research and adjust for other determinants of ESRD.

Spatial-temporal variation in orchid bee communities (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in remnants of arboreal Caatinga in the Chapada Diamantina region, state of Bahia, Brazil.

PubMed

Andrade-Silva, A C R; Nemésio, A; de Oliveira, F F; Nascimento, F S

2012-08-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of organisms is a fundamental aspect of biological communities. The present study focused on three remnants of arboreal Caatinga in northeastern Brazil between May, 2009 and April, 2010. A total of 627 euglossine males were captured in traps baited with artificial aromatic compounds. The specimens belonged to 14 species and four genera: Euglossa Latreille, Eulaema Lepeletier, Eufriesea Cockerell, and Exaerete Hoffmannsegg. Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier (41.6), Euglossa carolina Nemésio (15.3%), Eulaema marcii Nemésio (13.6%), and Euglossa melanotricha Moure (12.8%) were the most common species sampled. The distribution of collected specimens per fragment was as follows: Braúna (280 ha)--259 individuals belonging to 14 species; Cambuí (179 ha)--161 individuals from eight species; and Pindoba (100 ha)--207 individuals represented by seven species. Braúna had the highest diversity (H' = 1.91) and estimated species richness. The largest fragment was the main source of the observed variation in species richness and abundance, indicating a non-random pattern of spatial distribution. The analysis of environmental factors indicated that seasonal variation in these factors was the principal determinant of species occurrence and abundance.

Using long-term data to predict fish abundance: the case of Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes, Prochilodontidae) in the intensely regulated upper Paraná River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piana, Pitágoras A.; Cardoso, Bárbara F.; Dias, Joilson; Gomes, Luiz C.; Agostinho, Angelo A.; Miranda, Leandro E.

2017-01-01

Populations show spatial-temporal fluctuations in abundance, partly due to random processes and partly due to self-regulatory processes. We evaluated the effects of various external factors on the population numerical abundance of curimba Prochilodus lineatus in the upper Paraná River floodplain, Brazil, over a 19-year period. Panel data analysis was applied to examine the structure of temporal and spatial abundance while controlling auto-regressive processes and spatial non-homogeneity variances that often obscure relationships. As sources of population variation, we considered predation, competition, selected abiotic variables, construction of a dam upstream of the study area, water level and flood intensity during the spawning period. We found that biological interactions (predation and competition) were not significantly related to variations in curimba abundance; specific conductance was a space indicator of abundance, apparently linked to the biology of the species; intensity of floods determined inter-annual variation in abundances; Porto Primavera Dam negatively impacted the abundances at sites in the floodplain directly affected by discharges from the dam. Panel data analysis was a powerful tool that identified the need for intense flooding to maintain high abundances of curimba in the upper Paraná River. We believe our results apply to other species with similar life strategy.

Discrimination of fish populations using parasites: Random Forests on a 'predictable' host-parasite system.

PubMed

Pérez-Del-Olmo, A; Montero, F E; Fernández, M; Barrett, J; Raga, J A; Kostadinova, A

2010-10-01

We address the effect of spatial scale and temporal variation on model generality when forming predictive models for fish assignment using a new data mining approach, Random Forests (RF), to variable biological markers (parasite community data). Models were implemented for a fish host-parasite system sampled along the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of Spain and were validated using independent datasets. We considered 2 basic classification problems in evaluating the importance of variations in parasite infracommunities for assignment of individual fish to their populations of origin: multiclass (2-5 population models, using 2 seasonal replicates from each of the populations) and 2-class task (using 4 seasonal replicates from 1 Atlantic and 1 Mediterranean population each). The main results are that (i) RF are well suited for multiclass population assignment using parasite communities in non-migratory fish; (ii) RF provide an efficient means for model cross-validation on the baseline data and this allows sample size limitations in parasite tag studies to be tackled effectively; (iii) the performance of RF is dependent on the complexity and spatial extent/configuration of the problem; and (iv) the development of predictive models is strongly influenced by seasonal change and this stresses the importance of both temporal replication and model validation in parasite tagging studies.

Can Process Understanding Help Elucidate The Structure Of The Critical Zone? Comparing Process-Based Soil Formation Models With Digital Soil Mapping.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanwalleghem, T.; Román, A.; Peña, A.; Laguna, A.; Giráldez, J. V.

2017-12-01

There is a need for better understanding the processes influencing soil formation and the resulting distribution of soil properties in the critical zone. Soil properties can exhibit strong spatial variation, even at the small catchment scale. Especially soil carbon pools in semi-arid, mountainous areas are highly uncertain because bulk density and stoniness are very heterogeneous and rarely measured explicitly. In this study, we explore the spatial variability in key soil properties (soil carbon stocks, stoniness, bulk density and soil depth) as a function of processes shaping the critical zone (weathering, erosion, soil water fluxes and vegetation patterns). We also compare the potential of traditional digital soil mapping versus a mechanistic soil formation model (MILESD) for predicting these key soil properties. Soil core samples were collected from 67 locations at 6 depths. Total soil organic carbon stocks were 4.38 kg m-2. Solar radiation proved to be the key variable controlling soil carbon distribution. Stone content was mostly controlled by slope, indicating the importance of erosion. Spatial distribution of bulk density was found to be highly random. Finally, total carbon stocks were predicted using a random forest model whose main covariates were solar radiation and NDVI. The model predicts carbon stocks that are double as high on north versus south-facing slopes. However, validation showed that these covariates only explained 25% of the variation in the dataset. Apparently, present-day landscape and vegetation properties are not sufficient to fully explain variability in the soil carbon stocks in this complex terrain under natural vegetation. This is attributed to a high spatial variability in bulk density and stoniness, key variables controlling carbon stocks. Similar results were obtained with the mechanistic soil formation model MILESD, suggesting that more complex models might be needed to further explore this high spatial variability.

Measuring Ethnic Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Mobile Advertising

PubMed Central

Weidmann, Nils B.

2016-01-01

We present a field experiment that uses geo-referenced smartphone advertisements to measure ethnic preferences at a highly disaggregated level. Different types of banners advertising a vote matching tool are randomly displayed to mobile Internet users in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while recording their spatial coordinates. Differences in the response (click) rate to different ethnic cues on these banners are used to measure temporal and spatial variation in ethnic preferences among the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Our study lays out the theoretical and practical underpinnings of this technology and discusses its potential for future applications, but also highlights limitations of this approach. PMID:28005924

Measuring Ethnic Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina with Mobile Advertising.

PubMed

Nisser, Annerose; Weidmann, Nils B

2016-01-01

We present a field experiment that uses geo-referenced smartphone advertisements to measure ethnic preferences at a highly disaggregated level. Different types of banners advertising a vote matching tool are randomly displayed to mobile Internet users in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while recording their spatial coordinates. Differences in the response (click) rate to different ethnic cues on these banners are used to measure temporal and spatial variation in ethnic preferences among the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Our study lays out the theoretical and practical underpinnings of this technology and discusses its potential for future applications, but also highlights limitations of this approach.

Performance characterization of a cross-flow hydrokinetic turbine in sheared inflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbush, Dominic; Polagye, Brian; Thomson, Jim

2016-12-01

A method for constructing a non-dimensional performance curve for a cross-flow hydrokinetic turbine in sheared flow is developed for a natural river site. The river flow characteristics are quasi-steady, with negligible vertical shear, persistent lateral shear, and synoptic changes dominated by long time scales (days to weeks). Performance curves developed from inflow velocities measured at individual points (randomly sampled) yield inconclusive turbine performance characteristics because of the spatial variation in mean flow. Performance curves using temporally- and spatially-averaged inflow velocities are more conclusive. The implications of sheared inflow are considered in terms of resource assessment and turbine control.

Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

2017-01-01

Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial autocorrelation in an SDM context and, by taking account of random effects, produce outputs that can better elucidate the role of covariates in predicting species occurrence. Given that it is often unclear what the drivers are behind data clumping in an empirical occurrence dataset, or indeed how geographically restricted these data are, spatially-explicit Bayesian SDMs may be the better choice when modelling the spatial distribution of target species.

A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

PubMed

Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

2018-01-01

Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

Fractional Josephson vortices in two-gap superconductor long Josephson junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ju

2014-03-01

We investigated the phase dynamics of long Josephson junctions (LJJ) with two-gap superconductors in the broken time reversal symmetry state. In this LJJ, spatial phase textures (i-solitons) can be excited due to the presence of two condensates and the interband Joesphson effect between them. The presence of a spatial phase texture in each superconductor layer leads to a spatial variation of the critical current density between the superconductor layers. We find that this spatial dependence of the crtitical current density can self-generate magnetic flux in the insulator layer, resulting in Josephson vortices with fractional flux quanta. Similar to the situation in a YBa2 Cu3O7 - x superconductor film grain boundary, the fractionalization of a Josephson vortex arises as a response to either periodic or random excitation of i-solitions. This suggests that magnetic flux measurements may be used to probe i-soliton excitations in multi-gap superconductor LJJs.

Visual signal detection in structured backgrounds. II. Effects of contrast gain control, background variations, and white noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckstein, M. P.; Ahumada, A. J. Jr; Watson, A. B.

1997-01-01

Studies of visual detection of a signal superimposed on one of two identical backgrounds show performance degradation when the background has high contrast and is similar in spatial frequency and/or orientation to the signal. To account for this finding, models include a contrast gain control mechanism that pools activity across spatial frequency, orientation and space to inhibit (divisively) the response of the receptor sensitive to the signal. In tasks in which the observer has to detect a known signal added to one of M different backgrounds grounds due to added visual noise, the main sources of degradation are the stochastic noise in the image and the suboptimal visual processing. We investigate how these two sources of degradation (contrast gain control and variations in the background) interact in a task in which the signal is embedded in one of M locations in a complex spatially varying background (structured background). We use backgrounds extracted from patient digital medical images. To isolate effects of the fixed deterministic background (the contrast gain control) from the effects of the background variations, we conduct detection experiments with three different background conditions: (1) uniform background, (2) a repeated sample of structured background, and (3) different samples of structured background. Results show that human visual detection degrades from the uniform background condition to the repeated background condition and degrades even further in the different backgrounds condition. These results suggest that both the contrast gain control mechanism and the background random variations degrade human performance in detection of a signal in a complex, spatially varying background. A filter model and added white noise are used to generate estimates of sampling efficiencies, an equivalent internal noise, an equivalent contrast-gain-control-induced noise, and an equivalent noise due to the variations in the structured background.

[Spatial variation characteristics of surface soil water content, bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity on Karst slopes].

PubMed

Zhang, Chuan; Chen, Hong-Song; Zhang, Wei; Nie, Yun-Peng; Ye, Ying-Ying; Wang, Ke-Lin

2014-06-01

Surface soil water-physical properties play a decisive role in the dynamics of deep soil water. Knowledge of their spatial variation is helpful in understanding the processes of rainfall infiltration and runoff generation, which will contribute to the reasonable utilization of soil water resources in mountainous areas. Based on a grid sampling scheme (10 m x 10 m) and geostatistical methods, this paper aimed to study the spatial variability of surface (0-10 cm) soil water content, soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity on a typical shrub slope (90 m x 120 m, projected length) in Karst area of northwest Guangxi, southwest China. The results showed that the surface soil water content, bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity had different spatial dependence and spatial structure. Sample variogram of the soil water content was fitted well by Gaussian models with the nugget effect, while soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity were fitted well by exponential models with the nugget effect. Variability of soil water content showed strong spatial dependence, while the soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity showed moderate spatial dependence. The spatial ranges of the soil water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity were small, while that of the soil bulk density was much bigger. In general, the soil water content increased with the increase of altitude while it was opposite for the soil bulk densi- ty. However, the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity had a random distribution of large amounts of small patches, showing high spatial heterogeneity. Soil water content negatively (P < 0.01) correlated with the bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity, while there was no significant correlation between the soil bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity.

Systematic spatial bias in DNA microarray hybridization is caused by probe spot position-dependent variability in lateral diffusion.

PubMed

Steger, Doris; Berry, David; Haider, Susanne; Horn, Matthias; Wagner, Michael; Stocker, Roman; Loy, Alexander

2011-01-01

The hybridization of nucleic acid targets with surface-immobilized probes is a widely used assay for the parallel detection of multiple targets in medical and biological research. Despite its widespread application, DNA microarray technology still suffers from several biases and lack of reproducibility, stemming in part from an incomplete understanding of the processes governing surface hybridization. In particular, non-random spatial variations within individual microarray hybridizations are often observed, but the mechanisms underpinning this positional bias remain incompletely explained. This study identifies and rationalizes a systematic spatial bias in the intensity of surface hybridization, characterized by markedly increased signal intensity of spots located at the boundaries of the spotted areas of the microarray slide. Combining observations from a simplified single-probe block array format with predictions from a mathematical model, the mechanism responsible for this bias is found to be a position-dependent variation in lateral diffusion of target molecules. Numerical simulations reveal a strong influence of microarray well geometry on the spatial bias. Reciprocal adjustment of the size of the microarray hybridization chamber to the area of surface-bound probes is a simple and effective measure to minimize or eliminate the diffusion-based bias, resulting in increased uniformity and accuracy of quantitative DNA microarray hybridization.

Systematic Spatial Bias in DNA Microarray Hybridization Is Caused by Probe Spot Position-Dependent Variability in Lateral Diffusion

PubMed Central

Haider, Susanne; Horn, Matthias; Wagner, Michael; Stocker, Roman; Loy, Alexander

2011-01-01

Background The hybridization of nucleic acid targets with surface-immobilized probes is a widely used assay for the parallel detection of multiple targets in medical and biological research. Despite its widespread application, DNA microarray technology still suffers from several biases and lack of reproducibility, stemming in part from an incomplete understanding of the processes governing surface hybridization. In particular, non-random spatial variations within individual microarray hybridizations are often observed, but the mechanisms underpinning this positional bias remain incompletely explained. Methodology/Principal Findings This study identifies and rationalizes a systematic spatial bias in the intensity of surface hybridization, characterized by markedly increased signal intensity of spots located at the boundaries of the spotted areas of the microarray slide. Combining observations from a simplified single-probe block array format with predictions from a mathematical model, the mechanism responsible for this bias is found to be a position-dependent variation in lateral diffusion of target molecules. Numerical simulations reveal a strong influence of microarray well geometry on the spatial bias. Conclusions Reciprocal adjustment of the size of the microarray hybridization chamber to the area of surface-bound probes is a simple and effective measure to minimize or eliminate the diffusion-based bias, resulting in increased uniformity and accuracy of quantitative DNA microarray hybridization. PMID:21858215

Spatial variation in mandibular bone elastic modulus and its effect on structural bending stiffness: A test case using the Taï Forest monkeys.

PubMed

Le, Kim N; Marsik, Matthew; Daegling, David J; Duque, Ana; McGraw, William Scott

2017-03-01

We investigated how heterogeneity in material stiffness affects structural stiffness in the cercopithecid mandibular cortical bone. We assessed (1) whether this effect changes the interpretation of interspecific structural stiffness variation across four primate species, (2) whether the heterogeneity is random, and (3) whether heterogeneity mitigates bending stress in the jaw associated with food processing. The sample consisted of Taï Forest, Cote d'Ivoire, monkeys: Cercocebus atys, Piliocolobus badius, Colobus polykomos, and Cercopithecus diana. Vickers indentation hardness samples estimated elastic moduli throughout the cortical bone area of each coronal section of postcanine corpus. For each section, we calculated maximum area moment of inertia, I max (structural mechanical property), under three models of material heterogeneity, as well as spatial autocorrelation statistics (Moran's I, I MORAN ). When the model considered material stiffness variation and spatial patterning, I max decreased and individual ranks based on structural stiffness changed. Rank changes were not significant across models. All specimens showed positive (nonrandom) spatial autocorrelation. Differences in I MORAN were not significant among species, and there were no discernable patterns of autocorrelation within species. Across species, significant local I MORAN was often attributed to proximity of low moduli in the alveolar process and high moduli in the basal process. While our sample did not demonstrate species differences in the degree of spatial autocorrelation of elastic moduli, there may be mechanical effects of heterogeneity (relative strength and rigidity) that do distinguish at the species or subfamilial level (i.e., colobines vs. cercopithecines). The potential connections of heterogeneity to diet and/or taxonomy remain to be discovered. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of spatial heterogeneity on butterfly species richness in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kumar, S.; Simonson, S.E.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

We investigated butterfly responses to plot-level characteristics (plant species richness, vegetation height, and range in NDVI [normalized difference vegetation index]) and spatial heterogeneity in topography and landscape patterns (composition and configuration) at multiple spatial scales. Stratified random sampling was used to collect data on butterfly species richness from seventy-six 20 ?? 50 m plots. The plant species richness and average vegetation height data were collected from 76 modified-Whittaker plots overlaid on 76 butterfly plots. Spatial heterogeneity around sample plots was quantified by measuring topographic variables and landscape metrics at eight spatial extents (radii of 300, 600 to 2,400 m). The number of butterfly species recorded was strongly positively correlated with plant species richness, proportion of shrubland and mean patch size of shrubland. Patterns in butterfly species richness were negatively correlated with other variables including mean patch size, average vegetation height, elevation, and range in NDVI. The best predictive model selected using Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc), explained 62% of the variation in butterfly species richness at the 2,100 m spatial extent. Average vegetation height and mean patch size were among the best predictors of butterfly species richness. The models that included plot-level information and topographic variables explained relatively less variation in butterfly species richness, and were improved significantly after including landscape metrics. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity greatly influences patterns in butterfly species richness, and that it should be explicitly considered in conservation and management actions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A probabilistic model of a porous heat exchanger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, O. P.; Lin, X. A.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic one-dimensional finite element model for heat transfer processes in porous heat exchangers. The Galerkin approach is used to develop the finite element matrices. Some of the submatrices are asymmetric due to the presence of the flow term. The Neumann expansion is used to write the temperature distribution as a series of random variables, and the expectation operator is applied to obtain the mean and deviation statistics. To demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation, a one-dimensional model of heat transfer phenomenon in superfluid flow through a porous media is considered. Results of this formulation agree well with the Monte-Carlo simulations and the analytical solutions. Although the numerical experiments are confined to parametric random variables, a formulation is presented to account for the random spatial variations.

Quantifying Rock Weakening Due to Decreasing Calcite Mineral Content by Numerical Simulations

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The quantification of changes in geomechanical properties due to chemical reactions is of paramount importance for geological subsurface utilisation, since mineral dissolution generally reduces rock stiffness. In the present study, the effective elastic moduli of two digital rock samples, the Fontainebleau and Bentheim sandstones, are numerically determined based on micro-CT images. Reduction in rock stiffness due to the dissolution of 10% calcite cement by volume out of the pore network is quantified for three synthetic spatial calcite distributions (coating, partial filling and random) using representative sub-cubes derived from the digital rock samples. Due to the reduced calcite content, bulk and shear moduli decrease by 34% and 38% in maximum, respectively. Total porosity is clearly the dominant parameter, while spatial calcite distribution has a minor impact, except for a randomly chosen cement distribution within the pore network. Moreover, applying an initial stiffness reduced by 47% for the calcite cement results only in a slightly weaker mechanical behaviour. Using the quantitative approach introduced here substantially improves the accuracy of predictions in elastic rock properties compared to general analytical methods, and further enables quantification of uncertainties related to spatial variations in porosity and mineral distribution. PMID:29614776

Quantifying Rock Weakening Due to Decreasing Calcite Mineral Content by Numerical Simulations.

PubMed

Wetzel, Maria; Kempka, Thomas; Kühn, Michael

2018-04-01

The quantification of changes in geomechanical properties due to chemical reactions is of paramount importance for geological subsurface utilisation, since mineral dissolution generally reduces rock stiffness. In the present study, the effective elastic moduli of two digital rock samples, the Fontainebleau and Bentheim sandstones, are numerically determined based on micro-CT images. Reduction in rock stiffness due to the dissolution of 10% calcite cement by volume out of the pore network is quantified for three synthetic spatial calcite distributions (coating, partial filling and random) using representative sub-cubes derived from the digital rock samples. Due to the reduced calcite content, bulk and shear moduli decrease by 34% and 38% in maximum, respectively. Total porosity is clearly the dominant parameter, while spatial calcite distribution has a minor impact, except for a randomly chosen cement distribution within the pore network. Moreover, applying an initial stiffness reduced by 47% for the calcite cement results only in a slightly weaker mechanical behaviour. Using the quantitative approach introduced here substantially improves the accuracy of predictions in elastic rock properties compared to general analytical methods, and further enables quantification of uncertainties related to spatial variations in porosity and mineral distribution.

The Influence of Aircraft Speed Variations on Sensible Heat-Flux Measurements by Different Airborne Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Sabrina; Bange, Jens

2014-01-01

Crawford et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 66:237-245, 1993) showed that the time average is inappropriate for airborne eddy-covariance flux calculations. The aircraft's ground speed through a turbulent field is not constant. One reason can be a correlation with vertical air motion, so that some types of structures are sampled more densely than others. To avoid this, the time-sampled data are adjusted for the varying ground speed so that the modified estimates are equivalent to spatially-sampled data. A comparison of sensible heat-flux calculations using temporal and spatial averaging methods is presented and discussed. Data of the airborne measurement systems , Helipod and Dornier 128-6 are used for the analysis. These systems vary in size, weight and aerodynamic characteristics, since the is a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the Helipod a helicopter-borne turbulence probe and the Dornier 128-6 a manned research aircraft. The systematic bias anticipated in covariance computations due to speed variations was neither found when averaging over Dornier, Helipod nor UAV flight legs. However, the random differences between spatial and temporal averaging fluxes were found to be up to 30 % on the individual flight legs.

Bet-hedging as a complex interaction among developmental instability, environmental heterogeneity, dispersal, and life-history strategy.

PubMed

Scheiner, Samuel M

2014-02-01

One potential evolutionary response to environmental heterogeneity is the production of randomly variable offspring through developmental instability, a type of bet-hedging. I used an individual-based, genetically explicit model to examine the evolution of developmental instability. The model considered both temporal and spatial heterogeneity alone and in combination, the effect of migration pattern (stepping stone vs. island), and life-history strategy. I confirmed that temporal heterogeneity alone requires a threshold amount of variation to select for a substantial amount of developmental instability. For spatial heterogeneity only, the response to selection on developmental instability depended on the life-history strategy and the form and pattern of dispersal with the greatest response for island migration when selection occurred before dispersal. Both spatial and temporal variation alone select for similar amounts of instability, but in combination resulted in substantially more instability than either alone. Local adaptation traded off against bet-hedging, but not in a simple linear fashion. I found higher-order interactions between life-history patterns, dispersal rates, dispersal patterns, and environmental heterogeneity that are not explainable by simple intuition. We need additional modeling efforts to understand these interactions and empirical tests that explicitly account for all of these factors.

Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

1990-09-01

The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

Relevance of anisotropy and spatial variability of gas diffusivity for soil-gas transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schack-Kirchner, Helmer; Kühne, Anke; Lang, Friederike

2017-04-01

Models of soil gas transport generally do not consider neither direction dependence of gas diffusivity, nor its small-scale variability. However, in a recent study, we could provide evidence for anisotropy favouring vertical gas diffusion in natural soils. We hypothesize that gas transport models based on gas diffusion data measured with soil rings are strongly influenced by both, anisotropy and spatial variability and the use of averaged diffusivities could be misleading. To test this we used a 2-dimensional model of soil gas transport to under compacted wheel tracks to model the soil-air oxygen distribution in the soil. The model was parametrized with data obtained from soil-ring measurements with its central tendency and variability. The model includes vertical parameter variability as well as variation perpendicular to the elongated wheel track. Different parametrization types have been tested: [i)]Averaged values for wheel track and undisturbed. em [ii)]Random distribution of soil cells with normally distributed variability within the strata. em [iii)]Random distributed soil cells with uniformly distributed variability within the strata. All three types of small-scale variability has been tested for [j)] isotropic gas diffusivity and em [jj)]reduced horizontal gas diffusivity (constant factor), yielding in total six models. As expected the different parametrizations had an important influence to the aeration state under wheel tracks with the strongest oxygen depletion in case of uniformly distributed variability and anisotropy towards higher vertical diffusivity. The simple simulation approach clearly showed the relevance of anisotropy and spatial variability in case of identical central tendency measures of gas diffusivity. However, until now it did not consider spatial dependency of variability, that could even aggravate effects. To consider anisotropy and spatial variability in gas transport models we recommend a) to measure soil-gas transport parameters spatially explicit including different directions and b) to use random-field stochastic models to assess the possible effects for gas-exchange models.

Identification of Volcanic Landforms and Processes on Earth and Mars using Geospatial Analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagents, S. A.; Hamilton, C. W.

2009-12-01

Nearest neighbor (NN) analysis enables the identification of landforms using non-morphological parameters and can be useful for constraining the geological processes contributing to observed patterns of spatial distribution. Explosive interactions between lava and water can generate volcanic rootless cone (VRC) groups that are well suited to geospatial analyses because they consist of a large number of landforms that share a common formation mechanism. We have applied NN analysis tools to quantitatively compare the spatial distribution of VRCs in the Laki lava flow in Iceland to analogous landforms in the Tartarus Colles Region of eastern Elysium Planitia, Mars. Our results show that rootless eruption sites on both Earth and Mars exhibit systematic variations in spatial organization that are related to variations in the distribution of resources (lava and water) at different scales. Field observations in Iceland reveal that VRC groups are composite structures formed by the emplacement of chronologically and spatially distinct domains. Regionally, rootless cones cluster into groups and domains, but within domains NN distances exhibit random to repelled distributions. This suggests that on regional scales VRCs cluster in locations that contain sufficient resources, whereas on local scales rootless eruption sites tend to self-organize into distributions that maximize the utilization of limited resources (typically groundwater). Within the Laki lava flow, near-surface water is abundant and pre-eruption topography appears to exert the greatest control on both lava inundation regions and clustering of rootless eruption sites. In contrast, lava thickness appears to be the controlling factor in the formation of rootless eruption sites in the Tartarus Colles Region. A critical lava thickness may be required to initiate rootless eruptions on Mars because the lava flows must contain sufficient heat for transferred thermal energy to reach the underlying cryosphere and volatilize buried ground ice. In both environments, the spatial distribution of rootless eruption sites on local scales may either be random, which indicates that rootless eruption sites form independently of one another, or repelled, which implies resource limitation. Where competition for limited groundwater causes rootless eruption sites to develop greater than random NN separation, rootless eruption sites can be modeled as a system of pumping wells that extract water from a shared aquifer, thereby generating repelled distributions due to non-initiation or early cessation of rootless explosive activity at sites with insufficient access to groundwater. Thus statistical NN analyses can be combined with field observations and remote sensing to obtain information about self-organization processes within geological systems and the effects of environmental resource limitation on the spatial distribution of volcanic landforms. NN analyses may also be used to quantitatively compare the spatial distribution of landforms in different planetary environments and for supplying non-morphological evidence to discriminate between feature identities and geological formation mechanisms.

Spatial Mapping of the Mobility-Lifetime (microtau) Production in Cadmium Zinc Telluride Nuclear Radiation Detectors Using Transport Imaging

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

Under the influence of an electrical field, these electrons and holes migrate to their respective electrodes, where they are collected and...an electrical response which translates to an intensity reading on the detector’s readout meter. Since high-resolution detector materials are the...magnitude of three factors: inherent statistical variation of the electric signal measured at the detector’s contacts (Fano noise ∆EF), random electron

Applications of Geostatistics in Plant Nematology

PubMed Central

Wallace, M. K.; Hawkins, D. M.

1994-01-01

The application of geostatistics to plant nematology was made by evaluating soil and nematode data acquired from 200 soil samples collected from the Ap horizon of a reed canary-grass field in northern Minnesota. Geostatistical concepts relevant to nematology include semi-variogram modelling, kriging, and change of support calculations. Soil and nematode data generally followed a spherical semi-variogram model, with little random variability associated with soil data and large inherent variability for nematode data. Block kriging of soil and nematode data provided useful contour maps of the data. Change of snpport calculations indicated that most of the random variation in nematode data was due to short-range spatial variability in the nematode population densities. PMID:19279938

Applications of geostatistics in plant nematology.

PubMed

Wallace, M K; Hawkins, D M

1994-12-01

The application of geostatistics to plant nematology was made by evaluating soil and nematode data acquired from 200 soil samples collected from the A(p) horizon of a reed canary-grass field in northern Minnesota. Geostatistical concepts relevant to nematology include semi-variogram modelling, kriging, and change of support calculations. Soil and nematode data generally followed a spherical semi-variogram model, with little random variability associated with soil data and large inherent variability for nematode data. Block kriging of soil and nematode data provided useful contour maps of the data. Change of snpport calculations indicated that most of the random variation in nematode data was due to short-range spatial variability in the nematode population densities.

Statistical metrology—measurement and modeling of variation for advanced process development and design rule generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boning, Duane S.; Chung, James E.

1998-11-01

Advanced process technology will require more detailed understanding and tighter control of variation in devices and interconnects. The purpose of statistical metrology is to provide methods to measure and characterize variation, to model systematic and random components of that variation, and to understand the impact of variation on both yield and performance of advanced circuits. Of particular concern are spatial or pattern-dependencies within individual chips; such systematic variation within the chip can have a much larger impact on performance than wafer-level random variation. Statistical metrology methods will play an important role in the creation of design rules for advanced technologies. For example, a key issue in multilayer interconnect is the uniformity of interlevel dielectric (ILD) thickness within the chip. For the case of ILD thickness, we describe phases of statistical metrology development and application to understanding and modeling thickness variation arising from chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP). These phases include screening experiments including design of test structures and test masks to gather electrical or optical data, techniques for statistical decomposition and analysis of the data, and approaches to calibrating empirical and physical variation models. These models can be integrated with circuit CAD tools to evaluate different process integration or design rule strategies. One focus for the generation of interconnect design rules are guidelines for the use of "dummy fill" or "metal fill" to improve the uniformity of underlying metal density and thus improve the uniformity of oxide thickness within the die. Trade-offs that can be evaluated via statistical metrology include the improvements to uniformity possible versus the effect of increased capacitance due to additional metal.

Improving satellite-based PM2.5 estimates in China using Gaussian processes modeling in a Bayesian hierarchical setting.

PubMed

Yu, Wenxi; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

2017-08-01

Using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements and statistical models to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 is a promising way to fill the areas that are not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitors. The statistical models used in previous studies are primarily Linear Mixed Effects (LME) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. In this study, we developed a new regression model between PM 2.5 and AOD using Gaussian processes in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Gaussian processes model the stochastic nature of the spatial random effects, where the mean surface and the covariance function is specified. The spatial stochastic process is incorporated under the Bayesian hierarchical framework to explain the variation of PM 2.5 concentrations together with other factors, such as AOD, spatial and non-spatial random effects. We evaluate the results of our model and compare them with those of other, conventional statistical models (GWR and LME) by within-sample model fitting and out-of-sample validation (cross validation, CV). The results show that our model possesses a CV result (R 2  = 0.81) that reflects higher accuracy than that of GWR and LME (0.74 and 0.48, respectively). Our results indicate that Gaussian process models have the potential to improve the accuracy of satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates.

Using geographical semi-variogram method to quantify the difference between NO2 and PM2.5 spatial distribution characteristics in urban areas.

PubMed

Song, Weize; Jia, Haifeng; Li, Zhilin; Tang, Deliang

2018-08-01

Urban air pollutant distribution is a concern in environmental and health studies. Particularly, the spatial distribution of NO 2 and PM 2.5 , which represent photochemical smog and haze pollution in urban areas, is of concern. This paper presents a study quantifying the seasonal differences between urban NO 2 and PM 2.5 distributions in Foshan, China. A geographical semi-variogram analysis was conducted to delineate the spatial variation in daily NO 2 and PM 2.5 concentrations. The data were collected from 38 sites in the government-operated monitoring network. The results showed that the total spatial variance of NO 2 is 38.5% higher than that of PM 2.5 . The random spatial variance of NO 2 was 1.6 times than that of PM 2.5 . The nugget effect (i.e., random to total spatial variance ratio) values of NO 2 and PM 2.5 were 29.7 and 20.9%, respectively. This indicates that urban NO 2 distribution was affected by both local and regional influencing factors, while urban PM 2.5 distribution was dominated by regional influencing factors. NO 2 had a larger seasonally averaged spatial autocorrelation distance (48km) than that of PM 2.5 (33km). The spatial range of NO 2 autocorrelation was larger in winter than the other seasons, and PM 2.5 has a smaller range of spatial autocorrelation in winter than the other seasons. Overall, the geographical semi-variogram analysis is a very effective method to enrich the understanding of NO 2 and PM 2.5 distributions. It can provide scientific evidences for the buffering radius selection of spatial predictors for land use regression models. It will also be beneficial for developing the targeted policies and measures to reduce NO 2 and PM 2.5 pollution levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial Metrics of Tumour Vascular Organisation Predict Radiation Efficacy in a Computational Model

PubMed Central

Scott, Jacob G.

2016-01-01

Intratumoural heterogeneity is known to contribute to poor therapeutic response. Variations in oxygen tension in particular have been correlated with changes in radiation response in vitro and at the clinical scale with overall survival. Heterogeneity at the microscopic scale in tumour blood vessel architecture has been described, and is one source of the underlying variations in oxygen tension. We seek to determine whether histologic scale measures of the erratic distribution of blood vessels within a tumour can be used to predict differing radiation response. Using a two-dimensional hybrid cellular automaton model of tumour growth, we evaluate the effect of vessel distribution on cell survival outcomes of simulated radiation therapy. Using the standard equations for the oxygen enhancement ratio for cell survival probability under differing oxygen tensions, we calculate average radiation effect over a range of different vessel densities and organisations. We go on to quantify the vessel distribution heterogeneity and measure spatial organization using Ripley’s L function, a measure designed to detect deviations from complete spatial randomness. We find that under differing regimes of vessel density the correlation coefficient between the measure of spatial organization and radiation effect changes sign. This provides not only a useful way to understand the differences seen in radiation effect for tissues based on vessel architecture, but also an alternate explanation for the vessel normalization hypothesis. PMID:26800503

Gate line edge roughness amplitude and frequency variation effects on intra die MOS device characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamadeh, Emad; Gunther, Norman G.; Niemann, Darrell; Rahman, Mahmud

2006-06-01

Random fluctuations in fabrication process outcomes such as gate line edge roughness (LER) give rise to corresponding fluctuations in scaled down MOS device characteristics. A thermodynamic-variational model is presented to study the effects of LER on threshold voltage and capacitance of sub-50 nm MOS devices. Conceptually, we treat the geometric definition of the MOS devices on a die as consisting of a collection of gates. In turn, each of these gates has an area, A, and a perimeter, P, defined by nominally straight lines subject to random process outcomes producing roughness. We treat roughness as being deviations from straightness consisting of both transverse amplitude and longitudinal wavelength each having lognormal distribution. We obtain closed-form expressions for variance of threshold voltage ( Vth), and device capacitance ( C) at Onset of Strong Inversion (OSI) for a small device. Using our variational model, we characterized the device electrical properties such as σ and σC in terms of the statistical parameters of the roughness amplitude and spatial frequency, i.e., inverse roughness wavelength. We then verified our model with numerical analysis of Vth roll-off for small devices and σ due to dopant fluctuation. Our model was also benchmarked against TCAD of σ as a function of LER. We then extended our analysis to predict variations in σ and σC versus average LER spatial frequency and amplitude, and oxide-thickness. Given the intuitive expectation that LER of very short wavelengths must also have small amplitude, we have investigated the case in which the amplitude mean is inversely related to the frequency mean. We compare with the situation in which amplitude and frequency mean are unrelated. Given also that the gate perimeter may consist of different LER signature for each side, we have extended our analysis to the case when the LER statistical difference between gate sides is moderate, as well as when it is significantly large.

Spatial and temporal variability of microgeographic genetic structure in white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Smith, Michael H.; Chesser, Ronald K.

1997-01-01

Techniques are described that define contiguous genetic subpopulations of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) based on the spatial dispersion of 4,749 individuals that possessed discrete character values (alleles or genotypes) during each of 6 years (1974-1979). White-tailed deer were not uniformly distributed in space, but exhibited considerable spatial genetic structuring. Significant non-random clusters of individuals were documented during each year based on specific alleles and genotypes at the Sdh locus. Considerable temporal variation was observed in the position and genetic composition of specific clusters, which reflected changes in allele frequency in small geographic areas. The position of clusters did not consistently correspond with traditional management boundaries based on major discontinuities in habitat (swamp versus upland) and hunt compartments that were defined by roads and streams. Spatio-temporal stability of observed genetic contiguous clusters was interpreted relative to method and intensity of harvest, movements, and breeding ecology.

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

Spatial variation in hyperthermia emergency department visits among those with employer-based insurance in the United States - a case-crossover analysis.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Brock, John W; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Easterling, David R; Luber, George

2015-03-04

Predictions of intense heat waves across the United States will lead to localized health impacts, most of which are preventable. There is a need to better understand the spatial variation in the morbidity impacts associated with extreme heat across the country to prevent such adverse health outcomes. Hyperthermia-related emergency department (ED) visits were obtained from the Truven Health MarketScan(®) Research dataset for 2000-2010. Three measures of daily ambient heat were constructed using meteorological observations from the National Climatic Data Center (maximum temperature, heat index) and the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Using a time-stratified case crossover approach, odds ratio of hyperthermia-related ED visit were estimated for the three different heat measures. Random effects meta-analysis was used to combine the odds ratios for 94 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) to examine the spatial variation by eight latitude categories and nine U.S. climate regions. Examination of lags for all three temperature measures showed that the odds ratio of ED visit was statistically significant and highest on the day of the ED visit. For heat waves lasting two or more days, additional statistically significant association was observed when heat index and synoptic classification was used as the temperature measure. These results were insensitive to the inclusion of air pollution measures. On average, the maximum temperature on the day of an ED visit was 93.4°F in 'South' and 81.9°F in the 'Northwest' climatic regions of United States. The meta-analysis showed higher odds ratios of hyperthermia ED visit in the central and the northern parts of the country compared to the south and southwest. The results showed spatial variation in average temperature on days of ED visit and odds ratio for hyperthermia ED visits associated with extreme heat across United States. This suggests that heat response plans need to be customized for different regions and the potential role of hyperthermia ED visits in syndromic surveillance for extreme heat.

Interpretation of Variations in Modis-Measured Greenness Levels of Amazon Forests During 2000 to 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Vermote, Eric; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Myneni, Ranga B.

2012-01-01

This work investigates variations in satellite-measured greenness of Amazon forests using ten years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. Corruption of optical remote sensing data with clouds and aerosols is prevalent in this region; filtering corrupted data causes spatial sampling constraints, as well as reducing the record length, which introduces large biases in estimates of greenness anomalies. The EVI data, analyzed in multiple ways and taking into account EVI accuracy, consistently show a pattern of negligible changes in the greenness levels of forests both in the area affected by drought in 2005 and outside it. Small random patches of anomalous greening and browning-especially prominent in 2009-appear in all ten years, irrespective of contemporaneous variations in precipitation, but with no persistence over time. The fact that over 90% of the EVI anomalies are insignificantly small-within the envelope of error (95% confidence interval) in EVI-warrants cautious interpretation of these results: there were no changes in the greenness of these forests, or if there were changes, the EVI data failed to capture these either because the constituent reflectances were saturated or the moderate resolution precluded viewing small-scale variations. This suggests a need for more accurate and spatially resolved synoptic views from satellite data and corroborating comprehensive ground sampling to understand the greenness dynamics of these forests.

Introducing Perception and Modelling of Spatial Randomness in Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Nóbrega, José Renato

2017-01-01

A strategy to facilitate understanding of spatial randomness is described, using student activities developed in sequence: looking at spatial patterns, simulating approximate spatial randomness using a grid of equally-likely squares, using binomial probabilities for approximations and predictions and then comparing with given Poisson…

Importance of Local and Regional Scales in Shaping Mycobacterial Abundance in Freshwater Lakes.

PubMed

Roguet, Adélaïde; Therial, Claire; Catherine, Arnaud; Bressy, Adèle; Varrault, Gilles; Bouhdamane, Lila; Tran, Viet; Lemaire, Bruno J; Vincon-Leite, Brigitte; Saad, Mohamed; Moulin, Laurent; Lucas, Françoise S

2018-05-01

Biogeographical studies considering the entire bacterial community may underestimate mechanisms of bacterial assemblages at lower taxonomic levels. In this context, the study aimed to identify factors affecting the spatial and temporal dynamic of the Mycobacterium, a genus widespread in aquatic ecosystems. Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) density variations were quantified in the water column of freshwater lakes at the regional scale (annual monitoring of 49 lakes in the Paris area) and at the local scale (2-year monthly monitoring in Créteil Lake) by real-time quantitative PCR targeting the atpE gene. At the regional scale, mycobacteria densities in water samples ranged from 6.7 × 10 3 to 1.9 × 10 8 genome units per liter. Density variations were primarily explained by water pH, labile iron, and dispersal processes through the connection of the lakes to a river. In Créteil Lake, no spatial variation of mycobacterial densities was noticed over the 2-year monthly survey, except after large rainfall events. Indeed, storm sewer effluents locally and temporarily increased NTM densities in the water column. The temporal dynamic of the NTM densities in Créteil Lake was associated with suspended solid concentrations. No clear seasonal variation was noticed despite a shift in NTM densities observed over the 2012-2013 winter. Temporal NTM densities fluctuations were well predicted by the neutral community model, suggesting a random balance between loss and gain of mycobacterial taxa within Créteil Lake. This study highlights the importance of considering multiple spatial scales for understanding the spatio-temporal dynamic of bacterial populations in natural environments.

Spatial variations of the Sr I 4607 Å scattering polarization peak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianda, M.; Berdyugina, S.; Gisler, D.; Ramelli, R.; Belluzzi, L.; Carlin, E. S.; Stenflo, J. O.; Berkefeld, T.

2018-06-01

Context. The scattering polarization signal observed in the photospheric Sr I 4607 Å line is expected to vary at granular spatial scales. This variation can be due to changes in the magnetic field intensity and orientation (Hanle effect), but also to spatial and temporal variations in the plasma properties. Measuring the spatial variation of such polarization signal would allow us to study the properties of the magnetic fields at subgranular scales, but observations are challenging since both high spatial resolution and high spectropolarimetric sensitivity are required. Aims: We aim to provide observational evidence of the polarization peak spatial variations, and to analyze the correlation they might have with granulation. Methods: Observations conjugating high spatial resolution and high spectropolarimetric precision were performed with the Zurich IMaging POLarimeter, ZIMPOL, at the GREGOR solar telescope, taking advantage of the adaptive optics system and the newly installed image derotator. Results: Spatial variations of the scattering polarization in the Sr I 4607 Å line are clearly observed. The spatial scale of these variations is comparable with the granular size. Small correlations between the polarization signal amplitude and the continuum intensity indicate that the polarization is higher at the center of granules than in the intergranular lanes.

Use of forecasting signatures to help distinguish periodicity, randomness, and chaos in ripples and other spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, D.M.

1992-01-01

Forecasting of one-dimensional time series previously has been used to help distinguish periodicity, chaos, and noise. This paper presents two-dimensional generalizations for making such distinctions for spatial patterns. The techniques are evaluated using synthetic spatial patterns and then are applied to a natural example: ripples formed in sand by blowing wind. Tests with the synthetic patterns demonstrate that the forecasting techniques can be applied to two-dimensional spatial patterns, with the same utility and limitations as when applied to one-dimensional time series. One limitation is that some combinations of periodicity and randomness exhibit forecasting signatures that mimic those of chaos. For example, sine waves distorted with correlated phase noise have forecasting errors that increase with forecasting distance, errors that, are minimized using nonlinear models at moderate embedding dimensions, and forecasting properties that differ significantly between the original and surrogates. Ripples formed in sand by flowing air or water typically vary in geometry from one to another, even when formed in a flow that is uniform on a large scale; each ripple modifies the local flow or sand-transport field, thereby influencing the geometry of the next ripple downcurrent. Spatial forecasting was used to evaluate the hypothesis that such a deterministic process - rather than randomness or quasiperiodicity - is responsible for the variation between successive ripples. This hypothesis is supported by a forecasting error that increases with forecasting distance, a greater accuracy of nonlinear relative to linear models, and significant differences between forecasts made with the original ripples and those made with surrogate patterns. Forecasting signatures cannot be used to distinguish ripple geometry from sine waves with correlated phase noise, but this kind of structure can be ruled out by two geometric properties of the ripples: Successive ripples are highly correlated in wavelength, and ripple crests display dislocations such as branchings and mergers. ?? 1992 American Institute of Physics.

Stochastic environmental fluctuations drive epidemiology in experimental host–parasite metapopulations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Kaltz, Oliver

2013-01-01

Environmental fluctuations are important for parasite spread and persistence. However, the effects of the spatial and temporal structure of environmental fluctuations on host–parasite dynamics are not well understood. Temporal fluctuations can be random but positively autocorrelated, such that the environment is similar to the recent past (red noise), or random and uncorrelated with the past (white noise). We imposed red or white temporal temperature fluctuations on experimental metapopulations of Paramecium caudatum, experiencing an epidemic of the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Metapopulations (two subpopulations linked by migration) experienced fluctuations between stressful (5°C) and permissive (23°C) conditions following red or white temporal sequences. Spatial variation in temperature fluctuations was implemented by exposing subpopulations to the same (synchronous temperatures) or different (asynchronous temperatures) temporal sequences. Red noise, compared with white noise, enhanced parasite persistence. Despite this, red noise coupled with asynchronous temperatures allowed infected host populations to maintain sizes equivalent to uninfected populations. It is likely that this occurs because subpopulations in permissive conditions rescue declining subpopulations in stressful conditions. We show how patterns of temporal and spatial environmental fluctuations can impact parasite spread and host population abundance. We conclude that accurate prediction of parasite epidemics may require realistic models of environmental noise. PMID:23966645

A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping

PubMed Central

Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin

2012-01-01

Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties. PMID:22320766

A multi-source precipitation approach to fill gaps over a radar precipitation field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfagiorgis, K. B.; Mahani, S. E.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2012-12-01

Satellite Precipitation Estimates (SPEs) may be the only available source of information for operational hydrologic and flash flood prediction due to spatial limitations of radar and gauge products. The present work develops an approach to seamlessly blend satellite, radar, climatological and gauge precipitation products to fill gaps over ground-based radar precipitation fields. To mix different precipitation products, the bias of any of the products relative to each other should be removed. For bias correction, the study used an ensemble-based method which aims to estimate spatially varying multiplicative biases in SPEs using a radar rainfall product. Bias factors were calculated for a randomly selected sample of rainy pixels in the study area. Spatial fields of estimated bias were generated taking into account spatial variation and random errors in the sampled values. A weighted Successive Correction Method (SCM) is proposed to make the merging between error corrected satellite and radar rainfall estimates. In addition to SCM, we use a Bayesian spatial method for merging the gap free radar with rain gauges, climatological rainfall sources and SPEs. We demonstrate the method using SPE Hydro-Estimator (HE), radar- based Stage-II, a climatological product PRISM and rain gauge dataset for several rain events from 2006 to 2008 over three different geographical locations of the United States. Results show that: the SCM method in combination with the Bayesian spatial model produced a precipitation product in good agreement with independent measurements. The study implies that using the available radar pixels surrounding the gap area, rain gauge, PRISM and satellite products, a radar like product is achievable over radar gap areas that benefits the scientific community.

Spatial distribution of psychotic disorders in an urban area of France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pignon, Baptiste; Schürhoff, Franck; Baudin, Grégoire; Ferchiou, Aziz; Richard, Jean-Romain; Saba, Ghassen; Leboyer, Marion; Kirkbride, James B; Szöke, Andrei

2016-05-18

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux's model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02-1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

From stage to age in variable environments: life expectancy and survivorship.

PubMed

Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C

2006-06-01

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation. Our formulas describe the effects of cohort (birth) environmental condition on mortality at all ages, and of the effects on survivorship of environmental variability experienced over the course of life. This paper complements existing methods for time-invariant stage-based data, and adds to the information on population growth and dynamics available from stochastic demography.

Ionospheric scintillation by a random phase screen Spectral approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rufenach, C. L.

1975-01-01

The theory developed by Briggs and Parkin, given in terms of an anisotropic gaussian correlation function, is extended to a spectral description specified as a continuous function of spatial wavenumber with an intrinsic outer scale as would be expected from a turbulent medium. Two spectral forms were selected for comparison: (1) a power-law variation in wavenumber with a constant three-dimensional index equal to 4, and (2) Gaussian spectral variation. The results are applied to the F-region ionosphere with an outer-scale wavenumber of 2 per km (approximately equal to the Fresnel wavenumber) for the power-law variation, and 0.2 per km for the Gaussian spectral variation. The power-law form with a small outer-scale wavenumber is consistent with recent F-region in-situ measurements, whereas the gaussian form is mathematically convenient and, hence, mostly used in the previous developments before the recent in-situ measurements. Some comparison with microwave scintillation in equatorial areas is made.

The impact of sedimentary anisotropy on solute mixing in stacked scour-pool structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeremy P.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2017-04-01

The spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity is known to have a strong impact on solute spreading and mixing. In most investigations, its local anisotropy has been neglected. Recent studies have shown that spatially varying orientation in sedimentary anisotropy can lead to twisting flow enhancing transverse mixing, but most of these studies used geologically implausible geometries. We use an object-based approach to generate stacked scour-pool structures with either isotropic or anisotropic filling which are typically reported in glacial outwash deposits. We analyze how spatially variable isotropic conductivity and variation of internal anisotropy in these features impacts transverse plume deformation and both longitudinal and transverse spreading and mixing. In five test cases, either the scalar values of conductivity or the spatial orientation of its anisotropy is varied between the scour-pool structures. Based on 100 random configurations, we compare the variability of velocity components, stretching and folding metrics, advective travel-time distributions, one and two-particle statistics in advective-dispersive transport, and the flux-related dilution indices for steady state advective-dispersive transport among the five test cases. Variation in the orientation of internal anisotropy causes strong variability in the lateral velocity components, which leads to deformation in transverse directions and enhances transverse mixing, whereas it hardly affects the variability of the longitudinal velocity component and thus longitudinal spreading and mixing. The latter is controlled by the spatial variability in the scalar values of hydraulic conductivity. Our results demonstrate that sedimentary anisotropy is important for transverse mixing, whereas it may be neglected when considering longitudinal spreading and mixing.

Spectral and spatial variability of undisturbed and disturbed grass under different view and illumination directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borel-Donohue, Christoph C.; Shivers, Sarah Wells; Conover, Damon

2017-05-01

It is well known that disturbed grass covered surfaces show variability with view and illumination conditions. A good example is a grass field in a soccer stadium that shows stripes indicating in which direction the grass was mowed. These spatial variations are due to a complex interplay of spectral characteristics of grass blades, density, their length and orientations. Viewing a grass surface from nadir or near horizontal directions results in observing different components. Views from a vertical direction show more variations due to reflections from the randomly oriented grass blades and their shadows. Views from near horizontal show a mixture of reflected and transmitted light from grass blades. An experiment was performed on a mowed grass surface which had paths of simulated heavy foot traffic laid down in different directions. High spatial resolution hyperspectral data cubes were taken by an imaging spectrometer covering the visible through near infrared over a period of time covering several hours. Ground truth grass reflectance spectra with a hand held spectrometer were obtained of undisturbed and disturbed areas. Close range images were taken of selected areas with a hand held camera which were then used to reconstruct the 3D geometry of the grass using structure-from-motion algorithms. Computer graphics rendering using raytracing of reconstructed and procedurally created grass surfaces were used to compute BRDF models. In this paper, we discuss differences between observed and simulated spectral and spatial variability. Based on the measurements and/or simulations, we derive simple spectral index methods to detect spatial disturbances and apply scattering models.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO₂ and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health.

PubMed

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N

2017-07-10

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO 2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO₂ associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4-12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health.

High-speed, random-access fluorescence microscopy: I. High-resolution optical recording with voltage-sensitive dyes and ion indicators.

PubMed

Bullen, A; Patel, S S; Saggau, P

1997-07-01

The design and implementation of a high-speed, random-access, laser-scanning fluorescence microscope configured to record fast physiological signals from small neuronal structures with high spatiotemporal resolution is presented. The laser-scanning capability of this nonimaging microscope is provided by two orthogonal acousto-optic deflectors under computer control. Each scanning point can be randomly accessed and has a positioning time of 3-5 microseconds. Sampling time is also computer-controlled and can be varied to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio. Acquisition rates up to 200k samples/s at 16-bit digitizing resolution are possible. The spatial resolution of this instrument is determined by the minimal spot size at the level of the preparation (i.e., 2-7 microns). Scanning points are selected interactively from a reference image collected with differential interference contrast optics and a video camera. Frame rates up to 5 kHz are easily attainable. Intrinsic variations in laser light intensity and scanning spot brightness are overcome by an on-line signal-processing scheme. Representative records obtained with this instrument by using voltage-sensitive dyes and calcium indicators demonstrate the ability to make fast, high-fidelity measurements of membrane potential and intracellular calcium at high spatial resolution (2 microns) without any temporal averaging.

High-speed, random-access fluorescence microscopy: I. High-resolution optical recording with voltage-sensitive dyes and ion indicators.

PubMed Central

Bullen, A; Patel, S S; Saggau, P

1997-01-01

The design and implementation of a high-speed, random-access, laser-scanning fluorescence microscope configured to record fast physiological signals from small neuronal structures with high spatiotemporal resolution is presented. The laser-scanning capability of this nonimaging microscope is provided by two orthogonal acousto-optic deflectors under computer control. Each scanning point can be randomly accessed and has a positioning time of 3-5 microseconds. Sampling time is also computer-controlled and can be varied to maximize the signal-to-noise ratio. Acquisition rates up to 200k samples/s at 16-bit digitizing resolution are possible. The spatial resolution of this instrument is determined by the minimal spot size at the level of the preparation (i.e., 2-7 microns). Scanning points are selected interactively from a reference image collected with differential interference contrast optics and a video camera. Frame rates up to 5 kHz are easily attainable. Intrinsic variations in laser light intensity and scanning spot brightness are overcome by an on-line signal-processing scheme. Representative records obtained with this instrument by using voltage-sensitive dyes and calcium indicators demonstrate the ability to make fast, high-fidelity measurements of membrane potential and intracellular calcium at high spatial resolution (2 microns) without any temporal averaging. Images FIGURE 6 PMID:9199810

Quantitative Imaging in Cancer Evolution and Ecology

PubMed Central

Grove, Olya; Gillies, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Cancer therapy, even when highly targeted, typically fails because of the remarkable capacity of malignant cells to evolve effective adaptations. These evolutionary dynamics are both a cause and a consequence of cancer system heterogeneity at many scales, ranging from genetic properties of individual cells to large-scale imaging features. Tumors of the same organ and cell type can have remarkably diverse appearances in different patients. Furthermore, even within a single tumor, marked variations in imaging features, such as necrosis or contrast enhancement, are common. Similar spatial variations recently have been reported in genetic profiles. Radiologic heterogeneity within tumors is usually governed by variations in blood flow, whereas genetic heterogeneity is typically ascribed to random mutations. However, evolution within tumors, as in all living systems, is subject to Darwinian principles; thus, it is governed by predictable and reproducible interactions between environmental selection forces and cell phenotype (not genotype). This link between regional variations in environmental properties and cellular adaptive strategies may permit clinical imaging to be used to assess and monitor intratumoral evolution in individual patients. This approach is enabled by new methods that extract, report, and analyze quantitative, reproducible, and mineable clinical imaging data. However, most current quantitative metrics lack spatialness, expressing quantitative radiologic features as a single value for a region of interest encompassing the whole tumor. In contrast, spatially explicit image analysis recognizes that tumors are heterogeneous but not well mixed and defines regionally distinct habitats, some of which appear to harbor tumor populations that are more aggressive and less treatable than others. By identifying regional variations in key environmental selection forces and evidence of cellular adaptation, clinical imaging can enable us to define intratumoral Darwinian dynamics before and during therapy. Advances in image analysis will place clinical imaging in an increasingly central role in the development of evolution-based patient-specific cancer therapy. © RSNA, 2013 PMID:24062559

Experimental effects of climate messages vary geographically

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baobao; van der Linden, Sander; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Howe, Peter D.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2018-05-01

Social science scholars routinely evaluate the efficacy of diverse climate frames using local convenience or nationally representative samples1-5. For example, previous research has focused on communicating the scientific consensus on climate change, which has been identified as a `gateway' cognition to other key beliefs about the issue6-9. Importantly, although these efforts reveal average public responsiveness to particular climate frames, they do not describe variation in message effectiveness at the spatial and political scales relevant for climate policymaking. Here we use a small-area estimation method to map geographical variation in public responsiveness to information about the scientific consensus as part of a large-scale randomized national experiment (n = 6,301). Our survey experiment finds that, on average, public perception of the consensus increases by 16 percentage points after message exposure. However, substantial spatial variation exists across the United States at state and local scales. Crucially, responsiveness is highest in more conservative parts of the country, leading to national convergence in perceptions of the climate science consensus across diverse political geographies. These findings not only advance a geographical understanding of how the public engages with information about scientific agreement, but will also prove useful for policymakers, practitioners and scientists engaged in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, Aaron; Prinja, Anil; Franke, Brian

2017-09-01

Neutral particle transport in media exhibiting large and complex material property spatial variation is modeled by representing cross sections as lognormal random functions of space and generated through a nonlinear memory-less transformation of a Gaussian process with covariance uniquely determined by the covariance of the cross section. A Karhunen-Loève decomposition of the Gaussian process is implemented to effciently generate realizations of the random cross sections and Woodcock Monte Carlo used to transport particles on each realization and generate benchmark solutions for the mean and variance of the particle flux as well as probability densities of the particle reflectance and transmittance. A computationally effcient stochastic collocation method is implemented to directly compute the statistical moments such as the mean and variance, while a polynomial chaos expansion in conjunction with stochastic collocation provides a convenient surrogate model that also produces probability densities of output quantities of interest. Extensive numerical testing demonstrates that use of stochastic reduced-order modeling provides an accurate and cost-effective alternative to random sampling for particle transport in random media.

Potential impact of spatially targeted adult tuberculosis vaccine in Gujarat, India

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Susmita; Rao, Krishna D.; Dowdy, David W.

2016-01-01

Some of the most promising vaccines in the pipeline for tuberculosis (TB) target adolescents and adults. Unlike for childhood vaccines, high-coverage population-wide vaccination is significantly more challenging for adult vaccines. Here, we aimed to estimate the impact of vaccine delivery strategies that were targeted to high-incidence geographical ‘hotspots’ compared with randomly allocated vaccination. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of TB transmission that distinguished these hotspots from the general population. We evaluated the impact of targeted and untargeted vaccine delivery strategies in India—a country that bears more than 25% of global TB burden, and may be a potential early adopter of the vaccine. We collected TB notification data and conducted a demonstration study in the state of Gujarat to validate our estimates of heterogeneity in TB incidence. We then projected the impact of randomly vaccinating 8% of adults in a single mass campaign to a spatially targeted vaccination preferentially delivered to 80% of adults in the hotspots, with both strategies augmented by continuous adolescent vaccination. In consultation with vaccine developers, we considered a vaccine efficacy of 60%, and evaluated the population-level impact after 10 years of vaccination. Spatial heterogeneity in TB notification (per 100 000/year) was modest in Gujarat: 190 in the hotspots versus 125 in the remaining population. At this level of heterogeneity, the spatially targeted vaccination was projected to reduce TB incidence by 28% after 10 years, compared with a 24% reduction projected to achieve via untargeted vaccination—a 1.17-fold augmentation in the impact of vaccination by spatially targeting. The degree of the augmentation was robust to reasonable variation in natural history assumptions, but depended strongly on the extent of spatial heterogeneity and mixing between the hotspot and general population. Identifying high-incidence hotspots and quantifying spatial mixing patterns are critical to accurate estimation of the value of targeted intervention strategies. PMID:27009179

Spatial analyses for nonoverlapping objects with size variations and their application to coral communities.

PubMed

Muko, Soyoka; Shimatani, Ichiro K; Nozawa, Yoko

2014-07-01

Spatial distributions of individuals are conventionally analysed by representing objects as dimensionless points, in which spatial statistics are based on centre-to-centre distances. However, if organisms expand without overlapping and show size variations, such as is the case for encrusting corals, interobject spacing is crucial for spatial associations where interactions occur. We introduced new pairwise statistics using minimum distances between objects and demonstrated their utility when examining encrusting coral community data. We also calculated the conventional point process statistics and the grid-based statistics to clarify the advantages and limitations of each spatial statistical method. For simplicity, coral colonies were approximated by disks in these demonstrations. Focusing on short-distance effects, the use of minimum distances revealed that almost all coral genera were aggregated at a scale of 1-25 cm. However, when fragmented colonies (ramets) were treated as a genet, a genet-level analysis indicated weak or no aggregation, suggesting that most corals were randomly distributed and that fragmentation was the primary cause of colony aggregations. In contrast, point process statistics showed larger aggregation scales, presumably because centre-to-centre distances included both intercolony spacing and colony sizes (radius). The grid-based statistics were able to quantify the patch (aggregation) scale of colonies, but the scale was strongly affected by the colony size. Our approach quantitatively showed repulsive effects between an aggressive genus and a competitively weak genus, while the grid-based statistics (covariance function) also showed repulsion although the spatial scale indicated from the statistics was not directly interpretable in terms of ecological meaning. The use of minimum distances together with previously proposed spatial statistics helped us to extend our understanding of the spatial patterns of nonoverlapping objects that vary in size and the associated specific scales. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Accounting for regional background and population size in the detection of spatial clusters and outliers using geostatistical filtering and spatial neutral models: the case of lung cancer in Long Island, New York

PubMed Central

Goovaerts, Pierre; Jacquez, Geoffrey M

2004-01-01

Background Complete Spatial Randomness (CSR) is the null hypothesis employed by many statistical tests for spatial pattern, such as local cluster or boundary analysis. CSR is however not a relevant null hypothesis for highly complex and organized systems such as those encountered in the environmental and health sciences in which underlying spatial pattern is present. This paper presents a geostatistical approach to filter the noise caused by spatially varying population size and to generate spatially correlated neutral models that account for regional background obtained by geostatistical smoothing of observed mortality rates. These neutral models were used in conjunction with the local Moran statistics to identify spatial clusters and outliers in the geographical distribution of male and female lung cancer in Nassau, Queens, and Suffolk counties, New York, USA. Results We developed a typology of neutral models that progressively relaxes the assumptions of null hypotheses, allowing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation, non-uniform risk, and incorporation of spatially heterogeneous population sizes. Incorporation of spatial autocorrelation led to fewer significant ZIP codes than found in previous studies, confirming earlier claims that CSR can lead to over-identification of the number of significant spatial clusters or outliers. Accounting for population size through geostatistical filtering increased the size of clusters while removing most of the spatial outliers. Integration of regional background into the neutral models yielded substantially different spatial clusters and outliers, leading to the identification of ZIP codes where SMR values significantly depart from their regional background. Conclusion The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to assess geographic relationships using appropriate null hypotheses that account for the background variation extant in real-world systems. In particular, this new methodology allows one to identify geographic pattern above and beyond background variation. The implementation of this approach in spatial statistical software will facilitate the detection of spatial disparities in mortality rates, establishing the rationale for targeted cancer control interventions, including consideration of health services needs, and resource allocation for screening and diagnostic testing. It will allow researchers to systematically evaluate how sensitive their results are to assumptions implicit under alternative null hypotheses. PMID:15272930

Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Faxiang; Liu, Xinfeng; Ren, Xiaowei; Liu, Dongpeng; Liu, Haixia; Wei, Kongfu; Yang, Xiaoting; Cheng, Yao; Zheng, Yunhe; Jiang, Xiaojuan; Li, Juansheng; Meng, Lei; Hu, Wenbiao

2017-01-01

The influence of socio-ecological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were explored in this study using Bayesian spatial modeling and spatial patterns identified in dry regions of Gansu, China. Notified HFMD cases and socio-ecological data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Yearbook and Gansu Meteorological Bureau. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the effects of socio-ecological factors on the HFMD and explore spatial patterns, with the consideration of its socio-ecological effects. Our non-spatial model suggests temperature (relative risk (RR) 1.15, 95 % CI 1.01-1.31), GDP per capita (RR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.01-1.39) and population density (RR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.19-3.17) to have a significant effect on HFMD transmission. However, after controlling for spatial random effects, only temperature (RR 1.25, 95 % CI 1.04-1.53) showed significant association with HFMD. The spatial model demonstrates temperature to play a major role in the transmission of HFMD in dry regions. Estimated residual variation after taking into account the socio-ecological variables indicated that high incidences of HFMD were mainly clustered in the northwest of Gansu. And, spatial structure showed a unique distribution after taking account of socio-ecological effects.

Cloud Macroscopic Organization: Order Emerging from Randomness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuan, Tianle

2011-01-01

Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

PubMed

van der Maaten, Ernst; Hamann, Andreas; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Bergsma, Aldo; Hengeveld, Geerten; van Lammeren, Ron; Mohren, Frits; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Terhürne, Renske; Sterck, Frank

2017-04-01

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

Population and allelic variation of A-to-I RNA editing in human transcriptomes.

PubMed

Park, Eddie; Guo, Jiguang; Shen, Shihao; Demirdjian, Levon; Wu, Ying Nian; Lin, Lan; Xing, Yi

2017-07-28

A-to-I RNA editing is an important step in RNA processing in which specific adenosines in some RNA molecules are post-transcriptionally modified to inosines. RNA editing has emerged as a widespread mechanism for generating transcriptome diversity. However, there remain significant knowledge gaps about the variation and function of RNA editing. In order to determine the influence of genetic variation on A-to-I RNA editing, we integrate genomic and transcriptomic data from 445 human lymphoblastoid cell lines by combining an RNA editing QTL (edQTL) analysis with an allele-specific RNA editing (ASED) analysis. We identify 1054 RNA editing events associated with cis genetic polymorphisms. Additionally, we find that a subset of these polymorphisms is linked to genome-wide association study signals of complex traits or diseases. Finally, compared to random cis polymorphisms, polymorphisms associated with RNA editing variation are located closer spatially to their respective editing sites and have a more pronounced impact on RNA secondary structure. Our study reveals widespread cis variation in RNA editing among genetically distinct individuals and sheds light on possible phenotypic consequences of such variation on complex traits and diseases.

Tropical forest carbon balance: effects of field- and satellite-based mortality regimes on the dynamics and the spatial structure of Central Amazon forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Higuchi, Niro; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

2014-03-01

Debate continues over the adequacy of existing field plots to sufficiently capture Amazon forest dynamics to estimate regional forest carbon balance. Tree mortality dynamics are particularly uncertain due to the difficulty of observing large, infrequent disturbances. A recent paper (Chambers et al 2013 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 110 3949-54) reported that Central Amazon plots missed 9-17% of tree mortality, and here we address ‘why’ by elucidating two distinct mortality components: (1) variation in annual landscape-scale average mortality and (2) the frequency distribution of the size of clustered mortality events. Using a stochastic-empirical tree growth model we show that a power law distribution of event size (based on merged plot and satellite data) is required to generate spatial clustering of mortality that is consistent with forest gap observations. We conclude that existing plots do not sufficiently capture losses because their placement, size, and longevity assume spatially random mortality, while mortality is actually distributed among differently sized events (clusters of dead trees) that determine the spatial structure of forest canopies.

Soil variability in engineering applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessia, Giovanna

2014-05-01

Natural geomaterials, as soils and rocks, show spatial variability and heterogeneity of physical and mechanical properties. They can be measured by in field and laboratory testing. The heterogeneity concerns different values of litho-technical parameters pertaining similar lithological units placed close to each other. On the contrary, the variability is inherent to the formation and evolution processes experienced by each geological units (homogeneous geomaterials on average) and captured as a spatial structure of fluctuation of physical property values about their mean trend, e.g. the unit weight, the hydraulic permeability, the friction angle, the cohesion, among others. The preceding spatial variations shall be managed by engineering models to accomplish reliable designing of structures and infrastructures. Materon (1962) introduced the Geostatistics as the most comprehensive tool to manage spatial correlation of parameter measures used in a wide range of earth science applications. In the field of the engineering geology, Vanmarcke (1977) developed the first pioneering attempts to describe and manage the inherent variability in geomaterials although Terzaghi (1943) already highlighted that spatial fluctuations of physical and mechanical parameters used in geotechnical designing cannot be neglected. A few years later, Mandelbrot (1983) and Turcotte (1986) interpreted the internal arrangement of geomaterial according to Fractal Theory. In the same years, Vanmarcke (1983) proposed the Random Field Theory providing mathematical tools to deal with inherent variability of each geological units or stratigraphic succession that can be resembled as one material. In this approach, measurement fluctuations of physical parameters are interpreted through the spatial variability structure consisting in the correlation function and the scale of fluctuation. Fenton and Griffiths (1992) combined random field simulation with the finite element method to produce the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM). This method has been used to investigate the random behavior of soils in the context of a variety of classical geotechnical problems. Afterward, some following studies collected the worldwide variability values of many technical parameters of soils (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999a) and their spatial correlation functions (Phoon and Kulhawy 1999b). In Italy, Cherubini et al. (2007) calculated the spatial variability structure of sandy and clayey soils from the standard cone penetration test readings. The large extent of the worldwide measured spatial variability of soils and rocks heavily affects the reliability of geotechnical designing as well as other uncertainties introduced by testing devices and engineering models. So far, several methods have been provided to deal with the preceding sources of uncertainties in engineering designing models (e.g. First Order Reliability Method, Second Order Reliability Method, Response Surface Method, High Dimensional Model Representation, etc.). Nowadays, the efforts in this field have been focusing on (1) measuring spatial variability of different rocks and soils and (2) developing numerical models that take into account the spatial variability as additional physical variable. References Cherubini C., Vessia G. and Pula W. 2007. Statistical soil characterization of Italian sites for reliability analyses. Proc. 2nd Int. Workshop. on Characterization and Engineering Properties of Natural Soils, 3-4: 2681-2706. Griffiths D.V. and Fenton G.A. 1993. Seepage beneath water retaining structures founded on spatially random soil, Géotechnique, 43(6): 577-587. Mandelbrot B.B. 1983. The Fractal Geometry of Nature. San Francisco: W H Freeman. Matheron G. 1962. Traité de Géostatistique appliquée. Tome 1, Editions Technip, Paris, 334 p. Phoon K.K. and Kulhawy F.H. 1999a. Characterization of geotechnical variability. Can Geotech J, 36(4): 612-624. Phoon K.K. and Kulhawy F.H. 1999b. Evaluation of geotechnical property variability. Can Geotech J, 36(4): 625-639. Terzaghi K. 1943. Theoretical Soil Mechanics. New York: John Wiley and Sons. Turcotte D.L. 1986. Fractals and fragmentation. J Geophys Res, 91: 1921-1926. Vanmarcke E.H. 1977. Probabilistic modeling of soil profiles. J Geotech Eng Div, ASCE, 103: 1227-1246. Vanmarcke E.H. 1983. Random fields: analysis and synthesis. MIT Press, Cambridge.

Impact of spatial variation in snow water equivalent and snow ablation on spring snowcover depletion over an alpine ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schirmer, Michael; Harder, Phillip; Pomeroy, John

2016-04-01

The spatial and temporal dynamics of mountain snowmelt are controlled by the spatial distribution of snow accumulation and redistribution and the pattern of melt energy applied to this snowcover. In order to better quantify the spatial variations of accumulation and ablation, Structure-from-Motion techniques were applied to sequential aerial photographs of an alpine ridge in the Canadian Rocky Mountains taken from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Seven spatial maps of snow depth and changes to depth during late melt (May-July) were generated at very high resolutions covering an area of 800 x 600 m. The accuracy was assessed with over 100 GPS measurements and RMSE were found to be less than 10 cm. Low resolution manual measurements of density permitted calculation of snow water equivalent (SWE) and change in SWE (ablation rate). The results indicate a highly variable initial SWE distribution, which was five times more variable than the spatial variation in ablation rate. Spatial variation in ablation rate was still substantial, with a factor of two difference between north and south aspects and small scale variations due to local dust deposition. However, the impact of spatial variations in ablation rate on the snowcover depletion curve could not be discerned. The reason for this is that only a weak spatial correlation developed between SWE and ablation rate. These findings suggest that despite substantial variations in ablation rate, snowcover depletion curve calculations should emphasize the spatial variation of initial SWE rather than the variation in ablation rate. While there is scientific evidence from other field studies that support this, there are also studies that suggest that spatial variations in ablation rate can influence snowcover depletion curves in complex terrain, particularly in early melt. The development of UAV photogrammetry has provided an opportunity for further detailed measurement of ablation rates, SWE and snowcover depletion over complex terrain and UAV field studies are recommended to clarify the relative importance of SWE and melt variability on snowcover depletion in various environmental conditions.

Divergent drivers of the spatial and temporal variations of cropland carbon transfer in Liaoning province, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Xian-Jin; Zhang, Han-Qi; Zhao, Tian-Hong; Li, Jian-Dong; Yin, Hong

2017-10-12

Spatial and temporal variations are important points of focus in ecological research. Analysing their differences improves our understanding on the variations of ecological phenomena. Using data from the Liaoning Statistical Yearbook, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations of cropland carbon transfer (CCT), an important ecological phenomenon in quantifying the regional carbon budget, in particular, the influencing factors and difference. The results showed that, from 1992 to 2014, the average CCT in Liaoning province was 18.56 TgC yr -1 and decreased from northwest to southeast. CCT spatial variation was primarily affected by the ratio of planting area to regional area (RPR) via its effect on the magnitude of carbon transfer (MCT), which depended mainly on fertilizer usage per area (FUA). From 1992 to 2014, CCT exhibited a significantly increasing trend with a rate of 0.48 TgC yr -1 . The inter-annual variation of CCT was dominated by carbon transfer per planting area (CTP) through its effect on MCT, which significantly correlated with FUA but showed no significant correlation with climatic factors. Therefore, the factors affecting the spatial variation of CCT differed from those that affected its inter-annual variation, indicating that the spatial and temporal variations of ecological phenomena were affected by divergent factors.

A geostatistical analysis of small-scale spatial variability in bacterial abundance and community structure in salt marsh creek bank sediments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franklin, Rima B.; Blum, Linda K.; McComb, Alison C.; Mills, Aaron L.

2002-01-01

Small-scale variations in bacterial abundance and community structure were examined in salt marsh sediments from Virginia's eastern shore. Samples were collected at 5 cm intervals (horizontally) along a 50 cm elevation gradient, over a 215 cm horizontal transect. For each sample, bacterial abundance was determined using acridine orange direct counts and community structure was analyzed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprinting of whole-community DNA extracts. A geostatistical analysis was used to determine the degree of spatial autocorrelation among the samples, for each variable and each direction (horizontal and vertical). The proportion of variance in bacterial abundance that could be accounted for by the spatial model was quite high (vertical: 60%, horizontal: 73%); significant autocorrelation was found among samples separated by 25 cm in the vertical direction and up to 115 cm horizontally. In contrast, most of the variability in community structure was not accounted for by simply considering the spatial separation of samples (vertical: 11%, horizontal: 22%), and must reflect variability from other parameters (e.g., variation at other spatial scales, experimental error, or environmental heterogeneity). Microbial community patch size based upon overall similarity in community structure varied between 17 cm (vertical) and 35 cm (horizontal). Overall, variability due to horizontal position (distance from the creek bank) was much smaller than that due to vertical position (elevation) for both community properties assayed. This suggests that processes more correlated with elevation (e.g., drainage and redox potential) vary at a smaller scale (therefore producing smaller patch sizes) than processes controlled by distance from the creek bank. c2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially resolved variations in reflectivity across iron oxide thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Chris S.; Thompson, Sarah M.; Gilks, Daniel; Sizeland, James; Lari, Leonardo; Lazarov, Vlado K.; Matsuzaki, Kosuke; LeFrançois, Stéphane; Cinque, Gianfelice; Dumas, Paul

2017-11-01

The spin polarising properties of the iron oxide magnetite (Fe3O4) make it attractive for use in spintronic devices, but its sensitivity to compositional and structural variations make it challenging to prepare reliably. Infrared microspectroscopy and modelling are used to determine the spatial variation in the chemical composition of three thin films of iron oxide; one prepared by pulsed laser deposition (PLD), one by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) deposition of iron whilst simultaneously flowing oxygen into the chamber and one by flowing oxygen only once deposition is complete. The technique is easily able to distinguish between films which contain metallic iron and different iron oxide phases as well as spatial variations in composition across the films. The film grown by post-oxidising iron is spatially uniform but not fully oxidised, the film grown by simultaneously oxidising iron showed spatial variation in oxide composition while the film grown by PLD was spatially uniform magnetite.

Metastable dynamical patterns and their stabilization in arrays of bidirectionally coupled sigmoidal neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horikawa, Yo

2013-12-01

Transient patterns in a bistable ring of bidirectionally coupled sigmoidal neurons were studied. When the system had a pair of spatially uniform steady solutions, the instability of unstable spatially nonuniform steady solutions decreased exponentially with the number of neurons because of the symmetry of the system. As a result, transient spatially nonuniform patterns showed dynamical metastability: Their duration increased exponentially with the number of neurons and the duration of randomly generated patterns obeyed a power-law distribution. However, these metastable dynamical patterns were easily stabilized in the presence of small variations in coupling strength. Metastable rotating waves and their pinning in the presence of asymmetry in the direction of coupling and the disappearance of metastable dynamical patterns due to asymmetry in the output function of a neuron were also examined. Further, in a two-dimensional array of neurons with nearest-neighbor coupling, intrinsically one-dimensional patterns were dominant in transients, and self-excitation in these neurons affected the metastable dynamical patterns.

Homogeneity of the coefficient of linear thermal expansion of ZERODUR: a review of a decade of evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedamzik, Ralf; Westerhoff, Thomas

2017-09-01

The coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and its spatial homogeneity from small to large formats is the most important property of ZERODUR. Since more than a decade SCHOTT has documented the excellent CTE homogeneity. It started with reviews of past astronomical telescope projects like the VLT, Keck and GTC mirror blanks and continued with dedicated evaluations of the production. In recent years, extensive CTE measurements on samples cut from randomly selected single ZERODUR parts in meter size and formats of arbitrary shape, large production boules and even 4 m sized blanks have demonstrated the excellent CTE homogeneity in production. The published homogeneity data shows single ppb/K peak to valley CTE variations on medium spatial scale of several cm down to small spatial scale of only a few mm mostly at the limit of the measurement reproducibility. This review paper summarizes the results also in respect to the increased CTE measurement accuracy over the last decade of ZERODUR production.

Metacommunity composition of web-spiders in a fragmented neotropical forest: relative importance of environmental and spatial effects.

PubMed

Baldissera, Ronei; Rodrigues, Everton N L; Hartz, Sandra M

2012-01-01

The distribution of beta diversity is shaped by factors linked to environmental and spatial control. The relative importance of both processes in structuring spider metacommunities has not yet been investigated in the Atlantic Forest. The variance explained by purely environmental, spatially structured environmental, and purely spatial components was compared for a metacommunity of web spiders. The study was carried out in 16 patches of Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Field work was done in one landscape mosaic representing a slight gradient of urbanization. Environmental variables encompassed plot- and patch-level measurements and a climatic matrix, while principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNMs) acted as spatial variables. A forward selection procedure was carried out to select environmental and spatial variables influencing web-spider beta diversity. Variation partitioning was used to estimate the contribution of pure environmental and pure spatial effects and their shared influence on beta-diversity patterns, and to estimate the relative importance of selected environmental variables. Three environmental variables (bush density, land use in the surroundings of patches, and shape of patches) and two spatial variables were selected by forward selection procedures. Variation partitioning revealed that 15% of the variation of beta diversity was explained by a combination of environmental and PCNM variables. Most of this variation (12%) corresponded to pure environmental and spatially environmental structure. The data indicated that (1) spatial legacy was not important in explaining the web-spider beta diversity; (2) environmental predictors explained a significant portion of the variation in web-spider composition; (3) one-third of environmental variation was due to a spatial structure that jointly explains variation in species distributions. We were able to detect important factors related to matrix management influencing the web-spider beta-diversity patterns, which are probably linked to historical deforestation events.

A highly distributed Bragg stack with unique geometry provides effective camouflage for Loliginid squid eyes

PubMed Central

Holt, Amanda L.; Sweeney, Alison M.; Johnsen, Sönke; Morse, Daniel E.

2011-01-01

Cephalopods possess a sophisticated array of mechanisms to achieve camouflage in dynamic underwater environments. While active mechanisms such as chromatophore patterning and body posturing are well known, passive mechanisms such as manipulating light with highly evolved reflectors may also play an important role. To explore the contribution of passive mechanisms to cephalopod camouflage, we investigated the optical and biochemical properties of the silver layer covering the eye of the California fishery squid, Loligo opalescens. We discovered a novel nested-spindle geometry whose correlated structure effectively emulates a randomly distributed Bragg reflector (DBR), with a range of spatial frequencies resulting in broadband visible reflectance, making it a nearly ideal passive camouflage material for the depth at which these animals live. We used the transfer-matrix method of optical modelling to investigate specular reflection from the spindle structures, demonstrating that a DBR with widely distributed thickness variations of high refractive index elements is sufficient to yield broadband reflectance over visible wavelengths, and that unlike DBRs with one or a few spatial frequencies, this broadband reflectance occurs from a wide range of viewing angles. The spindle shape of the cells may facilitate self-assembly of a random DBR to achieve smooth spatial distributions in refractive indices. This design lends itself to technological imitation to achieve a DBR with wide range of smoothly varying layer thicknesses in a facile, inexpensive manner. PMID:21325315

[Spatial variation of soil properties and quality evaluation for arable Ustic Cambosols in central Henan Province].

PubMed

Zhang, Xue-Lei; Feng, Wan-Wan; Zhong, Guo-Min

2011-01-01

A GIS-based 500 m x 500 m soil sampling point arrangement was set on 248 points at Wenshu Town of Yuzhou County in central Henan Province, where the typical Ustic Cambosols locates. By using soil digital data, the spatial database was established, from which, all the needed latitude and longitude data of the sampling points were produced for the field GPS guide. Soil samples (0-20 cm) were collected from 202 points, of which, bulk density measurement were conducted for randomly selected 34 points, and the ten soil property items used as the factors for soil quality assessment, including organic matter, available K, available P, pH, total N, total P, soil texture, cation exchange capacity (CEC), slowly available K, and bulk density, were analyzed for the other points. The soil property items were checked by statistic tools, and then, classified with standard criteria at home and abroad. The factor weight was given by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the spatial variation of the major 10 soil properties as well as the soil quality classes and their occupied areas were worked out by Kriging interpolation maps. The results showed that the arable Ustic Cambosols in study area was of good quality soil, over 95% of which ranked in good and medium classes and only less than 5% were in poor class.

Bayesian modelling of household solid fuel use: insights towards designing effective interventions to promote fuel switching in Africa.

PubMed

Rehfuess, Eva A; Briggs, David J; Joffe, Mike; Best, Nicky

2010-10-01

Indoor air pollution from solid fuel use is a significant risk factor for acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa. Interventions that promote a switch to modern fuels hold a large health promise, but their effective design and implementation require an understanding of the web of upstream and proximal determinants of household fuel use. Using Demographic and Health Survey data for Benin, Kenya and Ethiopia together with Bayesian hierarchical and spatial modelling, this paper quantifies the impact of household-level factors on cooking fuel choice, assesses variation between communities and districts and discusses the likely nature of contextual effects. Household- and area-level characteristics appear to interact as determinants of cooking fuel choice. In all three countries, wealth and the educational attainment of women and men emerge as important; the nature of area-level factors varies between countries. In Benin, a two-level model with spatial community random effects best explains the data, pointing to an environmental explanation. In Ethiopia and Kenya, a three-level model with unstructured community and district random effects is selected, implying relatively autonomous economic and social areas. Area-level heterogeneity, indicated by large median odds ratios, appears to be responsible for a greater share of variation in the data than household-level factors. This may be an indication that fuel choice is to a considerable extent supply-driven rather than demand-driven. Consequently, interventions to promote fuel switching will carefully need to assess supply-side limitations and devise appropriate policy and programmatic approaches to overcome them. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first attempt to model the determinants of solid fuel use, highlighting socio-economic differences between households and, notably, the dramatic influence of contextual effects. It illustrates the potential that multilevel and spatial modelling approaches hold for understanding determinants of major public health problems in the developing world. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO2 and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

PubMed Central

Rao, Meenakshi; George, Linda A.; Shandas, Vivek; Rosenstiel, Todd N.

2017-01-01

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants—and thus human health—is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO2 is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO2 observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO2 with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO2 and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO2, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO2 associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4–12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and −1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health. PMID:28698523

The use of crop rotation for mapping soil organic content in farmland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lin; Song, Min; Zhu, A.-Xing; Qin, Chengzhi

2017-04-01

Most of the current digital soil mapping uses natural environmental covariates. However, human activities have significantly impacted the development of soil properties since half a century, and therefore become an important factor affecting soil spatial variability. Many researches have done field experiments to show how soil properties are impacted and changed by human activities, however, spatial variation data of human activities as environmental covariates have been rarely used in digital soil mapping. In this paper, we took crop rotation as an example of agricultural activities, and explored its effectiveness in characterizing and mapping the spatial variability of soil. The cultivated area of Xuanzhou city and Langxi County in Anhui Province was chosen as the study area. Three main crop rotations,including double-rice, wheat-rice,and oilseed rape-cotton were observed through field investigation in 2010. The spatial distribution of the three crop rotations in the study area was obtained by multi-phase remote sensing image interpretation using a supervised classification method. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) for topsoil organic content in the three crop rotation groups was performed. Factor importance of seven natural environmental covariates, crop rotation, Land use and NDVI were generated by variable importance criterion of Random Forest. Different combinations of environmental covariates were selected according to the importance rankings of environmental covariates for predicting SOC using Random Forest and Soil Landscape Inference Model (SOLIM). A cross validation was generated to evaluated the mapping accuracies. The results showed that there were siginificant differences of topsoil organic content among the three crop rotation groups. The crop rotation is more important than parent material, land use or NDVI according to the importance ranking calculated by Random Forest. In addition, crop rotation improved the mapping accuracy, especially for the flat clutivated area. This study demonstrates the usefulness of human activities in digital soil mapping and thus indicates the necessity for human activity factors in digital soil mapping studies.

Roles of climate, vegetation and soil in regulating the spatial variations in ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Chen, Zhi; Yu, Guirui; Ge, Jianping; Wang, Qiufeng; Zhu, Xianjin; Xu, Zhiwei

2015-01-01

Climate, vegetation, and soil characteristics play important roles in regulating the spatial variation in carbon dioxide fluxes, but their relative influence is still uncertain. In this study, we compiled data from 241 eddy covariance flux sites in the Northern Hemisphere and used Classification and Regression Trees and Redundancy Analysis to assess how climate, vegetation, and soil affect the spatial variations in three carbon dioxide fluxes (annual gross primary production (AGPP), annual ecosystem respiration (ARE), and annual net ecosystem production (ANEP)). Our results showed that the spatial variations in AGPP, ARE, and ANEP were significantly related to the climate and vegetation factors (correlation coefficients, R = 0.22 to 0.69, P < 0.01) while they were not related to the soil factors (R = -0.11 to 0.14, P > 0.05) in the Northern Hemisphere. The climate and vegetation together explained 60% and 58% of the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE, respectively. Climate factors (mean annual temperature and precipitation) could account for 45-47% of the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE, but the climate constraint on the vegetation index explained approximately 75%. Our findings suggest that climate factors affect the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE mainly by regulating vegetation properties, while soil factors exert a minor effect. To more accurately assess global carbon balance and predict ecosystem responses to climate change, these discrepant roles of climate, vegetation, and soil are required to be fully considered in the future land surface models. Moreover, our results showed that climate and vegetation factors failed to capture the spatial variation in ANEP and suggest that to reveal the underlying mechanism for variation in ANEP, taking into account the effects of other factors (such as climate change and disturbances) is necessary.

Explaining variation in tropical plant community composition: influence of environmental and spatial data quality.

PubMed

Jones, Mirkka M; Tuomisto, Hanna; Borcard, Daniel; Legendre, Pierre; Clark, David B; Olivas, Paulo C

2008-03-01

The degree to which variation in plant community composition (beta-diversity) is predictable from environmental variation, relative to other spatial processes, is of considerable current interest. We addressed this question in Costa Rican rain forest pteridophytes (1,045 plots, 127 species). We also tested the effect of data quality on the results, which has largely been overlooked in earlier studies. To do so, we compared two alternative spatial models [polynomial vs. principal coordinates of neighbour matrices (PCNM)] and ten alternative environmental models (all available environmental variables vs. four subsets, and including their polynomials vs. not). Of the environmental data types, soil chemistry contributed most to explaining pteridophyte community variation, followed in decreasing order of contribution by topography, soil type and forest structure. Environmentally explained variation increased moderately when polynomials of the environmental variables were included. Spatially explained variation increased substantially when the multi-scale PCNM spatial model was used instead of the traditional, broad-scale polynomial spatial model. The best model combination (PCNM spatial model and full environmental model including polynomials) explained 32% of pteridophyte community variation, after correcting for the number of sampling sites and explanatory variables. Overall evidence for environmental control of beta-diversity was strong, and the main floristic gradients detected were correlated with environmental variation at all scales encompassed by the study (c. 100-2,000 m). Depending on model choice, however, total explained variation differed more than fourfold, and the apparent relative importance of space and environment could be reversed. Therefore, we advocate a broader recognition of the impacts that data quality has on analysis results. A general understanding of the relative contributions of spatial and environmental processes to species distributions and beta-diversity requires that methodological artefacts are separated from real ecological differences.

Roles of Climate, Vegetation and Soil in Regulating the Spatial Variations in Ecosystem Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhi; Yu, Guirui; Ge, Jianping; Wang, Qiufeng; Zhu, Xianjin; Xu, Zhiwei

2015-01-01

Climate, vegetation, and soil characteristics play important roles in regulating the spatial variation in carbon dioxide fluxes, but their relative influence is still uncertain. In this study, we compiled data from 241 eddy covariance flux sites in the Northern Hemisphere and used Classification and Regression Trees and Redundancy Analysis to assess how climate, vegetation, and soil affect the spatial variations in three carbon dioxide fluxes (annual gross primary production (AGPP), annual ecosystem respiration (ARE), and annual net ecosystem production (ANEP)). Our results showed that the spatial variations in AGPP, ARE, and ANEP were significantly related to the climate and vegetation factors (correlation coefficients, R = 0.22 to 0.69, P < 0.01) while they were not related to the soil factors (R = -0.11 to 0.14, P > 0.05) in the Northern Hemisphere. The climate and vegetation together explained 60 % and 58 % of the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE, respectively. Climate factors (mean annual temperature and precipitation) could account for 45 - 47 % of the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE, but the climate constraint on the vegetation index explained approximately 75 %. Our findings suggest that climate factors affect the spatial variations in AGPP and ARE mainly by regulating vegetation properties, while soil factors exert a minor effect. To more accurately assess global carbon balance and predict ecosystem responses to climate change, these discrepant roles of climate, vegetation, and soil are required to be fully considered in the future land surface models. Moreover, our results showed that climate and vegetation factors failed to capture the spatial variation in ANEP and suggest that to reveal the underlying mechanism for variation in ANEP, taking into account the effects of other factors (such as climate change and disturbances) is necessary. PMID:25928452

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection.

PubMed

Siepielski, Adam M; Gotanda, Kiyoko M; Morrissey, Michael B; Diamond, Sarah E; DiBattista, Joseph D; Carlson, Stephanie M

2013-11-01

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta-analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Associations between degraded benthic communities and contaminated sediments: Sabine Lake, Lake Pontchartrain, and Choctawhatchee Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engle, V.D.; Summers, J.K.; Macauley, J.M.

1994-12-31

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) in the Gulf of Mexico supplements its base sampling effort each year with localized, intensive spatial sampling in selected large estuarine systems. By selecting random locations within 70 km{sup 2} hexagonal areas, individual estuaries were sampled using EMAP methods but at four times the density as base sampling. In 1992, 19 sites were sampled in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana. In 1 993, 18 sites were sampled in Sabine Lake, Texas and 12 sites were sampled in Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida. At all sites, sediment grabs were taken and analyzed for benthic species compositionmore » and abundance, for toxicity to Ampelisca, and for organic and inorganic sediment contaminants. An indicator of biotic integrity, the benthic index, was calculated to represent the status of benthic communities. A series of statistical techniques, such as stepwise regression analysis, were employed to determine whether the variation in the benthic index could be associated with variation in sediment contaminants, sediment toxicity, or levels of dissolved oxygen. Spatial distributions of these parameters were examined to determine the geographical co-occurrence of degraded benthic communities and environmental stressors. In Lake Pontchartrain, for example, 85% of the variation in the benthic index was associated with decreased levels of dissolved oxygen, and increased concentrations of PCBs, alkanes, copper, tin, and zinc in the sediments.« less

Numerical Generation of Dense Plume Fingers in Unsaturated Homogeneous Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, C.; Graf, T.

2012-04-01

In nature, the migration of dense plumes typically results in the formation of vertical plume fingers. Flow direction in fingers is downwards, which is counterbalanced by upwards flow of less dense fluid between fingers. In heterogeneous media, heterogeneity itself is known to trigger the formation of fingers. In homogeneous media, however, fingers are also created even if all grains had the same diameter. The reason is that pore-scale heterogeneity leading to different flow velocities also exists in homogeneous media due to two effects: (i) Grains of identical size may randomly arrange differently, e.g. forming tetrahedrons, hexahedrons or octahedrons. Each arrangement creates pores of varying diameter, thus resulting in different average flow velocities. (ii) Random variations of solute concentration lead to varying buoyancy effects, thus also resulting in different velocities. As a continuation of previously made efforts to incorporate pore-scale heterogeneity into fully saturated soil such that dense fingers are realistically generated (Cremer and Graf, EGU Assembly, 2011), the current paper extends the research scope from saturated to unsaturated soil. Perturbation methods are evaluated by numerically re-simulating a laboratory-scale experiment of plume transport in homogeneous unsaturated sand (Simmons et al., Transp. Porous Media, 2002). The following 5 methods are being discussed: (i) homogeneous sand, (ii) initial perturbation of solute concentration, (iii) spatially random, time-constant perturbation of solute source, (iv) spatially and temporally random noise of simulated solute concentration, and (v) random K-field that introduces physically insignificant but numerically significant heterogeneity. Results demonstrate that, as opposed to saturated flow, perturbing the solute source will not result in plume fingering. This is because the location of the perturbed source (domain top) and the location of finger generation (groundwater surface) do not coincide. Alternatively, similar to saturated flow, applying either a random concentration noise (iv) or a random K-field (v) generates realistic plume fingering. Future work will focus on the generation mechanisms of plume finger splitting.

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR)

PubMed Central

Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

2007-01-01

Background Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. Methods We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. Application We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. Conclusion This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy. PMID:17543100

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR).

PubMed

Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

2007-06-01

Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy.

Interpolating precipitation and its relation to runoff and non-point source pollution.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Ling; Lo, Shang-Lien; Yu, Shaw-L

2005-01-01

When rainfall spatially varies, complete rainfall data for each region with different rainfall characteristics are very important. Numerous interpolation methods have been developed for estimating unknown spatial characteristics. However, no interpolation method is suitable for all circumstances. In this study, several methods, including the arithmetic average method, the Thiessen Polygons method, the traditional inverse distance method, and the modified inverse distance method, were used to interpolate precipitation. The modified inverse distance method considers not only horizontal distances but also differences between the elevations of the region with no rainfall records and of its surrounding rainfall stations. The results show that when the spatial variation of rainfall is strong, choosing a suitable interpolation method is very important. If the rainfall is uniform, the precipitation estimated using any interpolation method would be quite close to the actual precipitation. When rainfall is heavy in locations with high elevation, the rainfall changes with the elevation. In this situation, the modified inverse distance method is much more effective than any other method discussed herein for estimating the rainfall input for WinVAST to estimate runoff and non-point source pollution (NPSP). When the spatial variation of rainfall is random, regardless of the interpolation method used to yield rainfall input, the estimation errors of runoff and NPSP are large. Moreover, the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and predicted pollutant loading of SS is high. However, the pollutant concentration is affected by both runoff and pollutant export, so the relationship between the relative error of the predicted runoff and the predicted pollutant concentration of SS may be unstable.

Type-curve estimation of statistical heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuman, Shlomo P.; Guadagnini, Alberto; Riva, Monica

2004-04-01

The analysis of pumping tests has traditionally relied on analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations in relatively simple domains, consisting of one or at most a few units having uniform hydraulic properties. Recently, attention has been shifting toward methods and solutions that would allow one to characterize subsurface heterogeneities in greater detail. On one hand, geostatistical inverse methods are being used to assess the spatial variability of parameters, such as permeability and porosity, on the basis of multiple cross-hole pressure interference tests. On the other hand, analytical solutions are being developed to describe the mean and variance (first and second statistical moments) of flow to a well in a randomly heterogeneous medium. We explore numerically the feasibility of using a simple graphical approach (without numerical inversion) to estimate the geometric mean, integral scale, and variance of local log transmissivity on the basis of quasi steady state head data when a randomly heterogeneous confined aquifer is pumped at a constant rate. By local log transmissivity we mean a function varying randomly over horizontal distances that are small in comparison with a characteristic spacing between pumping and observation wells during a test. Experimental evidence and hydrogeologic scaling theory suggest that such a function would tend to exhibit an integral scale well below the maximum well spacing. This is in contrast to equivalent transmissivities derived from pumping tests by treating the aquifer as being locally uniform (on the scale of each test), which tend to exhibit regional-scale spatial correlations. We show that whereas the mean and integral scale of local log transmissivity can be estimated reasonably well based on theoretical ensemble mean variations of head and drawdown with radial distance from a pumping well, estimating the log transmissivity variance is more difficult. We obtain reasonable estimates of the latter based on theoretical variation of the standard deviation of circumferentially averaged drawdown about its mean.

Dissociable effects of practice variability on learning motor and timing skills.

PubMed

Caramiaux, Baptiste; Bevilacqua, Frédéric; Wanderley, Marcelo M; Palmer, Caroline

2018-01-01

Motor skill acquisition inherently depends on the way one practices the motor task. The amount of motor task variability during practice has been shown to foster transfer of the learned skill to other similar motor tasks. In addition, variability in a learning schedule, in which a task and its variations are interweaved during practice, has been shown to help the transfer of learning in motor skill acquisition. However, there is little evidence on how motor task variations and variability schedules during practice act on the acquisition of complex motor skills such as music performance, in which a performer learns both the right movements (motor skill) and the right time to perform them (timing skill). This study investigated the impact of rate (tempo) variability and the schedule of tempo change during practice on timing and motor skill acquisition. Complete novices, with no musical training, practiced a simple musical sequence on a piano keyboard at different rates. Each novice was assigned to one of four learning conditions designed to manipulate the amount of tempo variability across trials (large or small tempo set) and the schedule of tempo change (randomized or non-randomized order) during practice. At test, the novices performed the same musical sequence at a familiar tempo and at novel tempi (testing tempo transfer), as well as two novel (but related) sequences at a familiar tempo (testing spatial transfer). We found that practice conditions had little effect on learning and transfer performance of timing skill. Interestingly, practice conditions influenced motor skill learning (reduction of movement variability): lower temporal variability during practice facilitated transfer to new tempi and new sequences; non-randomized learning schedule improved transfer to new tempi and new sequences. Tempo (rate) and the sequence difficulty (spatial manipulation) affected performance variability in both timing and movement. These findings suggest that there is a dissociable effect of practice variability on learning complex skills that involve both motor and timing constraints.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

Turbulent transport with intermittency: Expectation of a scalar concentration.

PubMed

Rast, Mark Peter; Pinton, Jean-François; Mininni, Pablo D

2016-04-01

Scalar transport by turbulent flows is best described in terms of Lagrangian parcel motions. Here we measure the Eulerian distance travel along Lagrangian trajectories in a simple point vortex flow to determine the probabilistic impulse response function for scalar transport in the absence of molecular diffusion. As expected, the mean squared Eulerian displacement scales ballistically at very short times and diffusively for very long times, with the displacement distribution at any given time approximating that of a random walk. However, significant deviations in the displacement distributions from Rayleigh are found. The probability of long distance transport is reduced over inertial range time scales due to spatial and temporal intermittency. This can be modeled as a series of trapping events with durations uniformly distributed below the Eulerian integral time scale. The probability of long distance transport is, on the other hand, enhanced beyond that of the random walk for both times shorter than the Lagrangian integral time and times longer than the Eulerian integral time. The very short-time enhancement reflects the underlying Lagrangian velocity distribution, while that at very long times results from the spatial and temporal variation of the flow at the largest scales. The probabilistic impulse response function, and with it the expectation value of the scalar concentration at any point in space and time, can be modeled using only the evolution of the lowest spatial wave number modes (the mean and the lowest harmonic) and an eddy based constrained random walk that captures the essential velocity phase relations associated with advection by vortex motions. Preliminary examination of Lagrangian tracers in three-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence suggests that transport in that setting can be similarly modeled.

Robust Encoding of Spatial Information in Orbitofrontal Cortex and Striatum.

PubMed

Yoo, Seng Bum Michael; Sleezer, Brianna J; Hayden, Benjamin Y

2018-06-01

Knowing whether core reward regions carry information about the positions of relevant objects is crucial for adjudicating between choice models. One limitation of previous studies, including our own, is that spatial positions can be consistently differentially associated with rewards, and thus position can be confounded with attention, motor plans, or target identity. We circumvented these problems by using a task in which value-and thus choices-was determined solely by a frequently changing rule, which was randomized relative to spatial position on each trial. We presented offers asynchronously, which allowed us to control for reward expectation, spatial attention, and motor plans in our analyses. We find robust encoding of the spatial position of both offers and choices in two core reward regions, orbitofrontal Area 13 and ventral striatum, as well as in dorsal striatum of macaques. The trial-by-trial correlation in noise in encoding of position was associated with variation in choice, an effect known as choice probability correlation, suggesting that the spatial encoding is associated with choice and is not incidental to it. Spatial information and reward information are not carried by separate sets of neurons, although the two forms of information are temporally dissociable. These results highlight the ubiquity of multiplexed information in association cortex and argue against the idea that these ostensible reward regions serve as part of a pure value domain.

Experimental Study of the Effect of the Initial Spectrum Width on the Statistics of Random Wave Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shemer, L.; Sergeeva, A.

2009-12-01

The statistics of random water wave field determines the probability of appearance of extremely high (freak) waves. This probability is strongly related to the spectral wave field characteristics. Laboratory investigation of the spatial variation of the random wave-field statistics for various initial conditions is thus of substantial practical importance. Unidirectional nonlinear random wave groups are investigated experimentally in the 300 m long Large Wave Channel (GWK) in Hannover, Germany, which is the biggest facility of its kind in Europe. Numerous realizations of a wave field with the prescribed frequency power spectrum, yet randomly-distributed initial phases of each harmonic, were generated by a computer-controlled piston-type wavemaker. Several initial spectral shapes with identical dominant wave length but different width were considered. For each spectral shape, the total duration of sampling in all realizations was long enough to yield sufficient sample size for reliable statistics. Through all experiments, an effort had been made to retain the characteristic wave height value and thus the degree of nonlinearity of the wave field. Spatial evolution of numerous statistical wave field parameters (skewness, kurtosis and probability distributions) is studied using about 25 wave gauges distributed along the tank. It is found that, depending on the initial spectral shape, the frequency spectrum of the wave field may undergo significant modification in the course of its evolution along the tank; the values of all statistical wave parameters are strongly related to the local spectral width. A sample of the measured wave height probability functions (scaled by the variance of surface elevation) is plotted in Fig. 1 for the initially narrow rectangular spectrum. The results in Fig. 1 resemble findings obtained in [1] for the initial Gaussian spectral shape. The probability of large waves notably surpasses that predicted by the Rayleigh distribution and is the highest at the distance of about 100 m. Acknowledgement This study is carried out in the framework of the EC supported project "Transnational access to large-scale tests in the Large Wave Channel (GWK) of Forschungszentrum Küste (Contract HYDRALAB III - No. 022441). [1] L. Shemer and A. Sergeeva, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 114, C01015 (2009). Figure 1. Variation along the tank of the measured wave height distribution for rectangular initial spectral shape, the carrier wave period T0=1.5 s.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Social deprivation, inequality, and the neighborhood-level incidence of psychotic syndromes in East London.

PubMed

Kirkbride, James B; Jones, Peter B; Ullrich, Simone; Coid, Jeremy W

2014-01-01

Although urban birth, upbringing, and living are associated with increased risk of nonaffective psychotic disorders, few studies have used appropriate multilevel techniques accounting for spatial dependency in risk to investigate social, economic, or physical determinants of psychosis incidence. We adopted Bayesian hierarchical modeling to investigate the sociospatial distribution of psychosis risk in East London for DSM-IV nonaffective and affective psychotic disorders, ascertained over a 2-year period in the East London first-episode psychosis study. We included individual and environmental data on 427 subjects experiencing first-episode psychosis to estimate the incidence of disorder across 56 neighborhoods, having standardized for age, sex, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. A Bayesian model that included spatially structured neighborhood-level random effects identified substantial unexplained variation in nonaffective psychosis risk after controlling for individual-level factors. This variation was independently associated with greater levels of neighborhood income inequality (SD increase in inequality: Bayesian relative risks [RR]: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.04-1.49), absolute deprivation (RR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.08-1.51) and population density (RR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.00-1.41). Neighborhood ethnic composition effects were associated with incidence of nonaffective psychosis for people of black Caribbean and black African origin. No variation in the spatial distribution of the affective psychoses was identified, consistent with the possibility of differing etiological origins of affective and nonaffective psychoses. Our data suggest that both absolute and relative measures of neighborhood social composition are associated with the incidence of nonaffective psychosis. We suggest these associations are consistent with a role for social stressors in psychosis risk, particularly when people live in more unequal communities.

Consideraciones para la estimacion de abundancia de poblaciones de mamiferos. [Considerations for the estimation of abundance of mammal populations.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, R.S.; Novare, A.J.; Nichols, J.D.

2000-01-01

Estimation of abundance of mammal populations is essential for monitoring programs and for many ecological investigations. The first step for any study of variation in mammal abundance over space or time is to define the objectives of the study and how and why abundance data are to be used. The data used to estimate abundance are count statistics in the form of counts of animals or their signs. There are two major sources of uncertainty that must be considered in the design of the study: spatial variation and the relationship between abundance and the count statistic. Spatial variation in the distribution of animals or signs may be taken into account with appropriate spatial sampling. Count statistics may be viewed as random variables, with the expected value of the count statistic equal to the true abundance of the population multiplied by a coefficient p. With direct counts, p represents the probability of detection or capture of individuals, and with indirect counts it represents the rate of production of the signs as well as their probability of detection. Comparisons of abundance using count statistics from different times or places assume that the p are the same for all times or places being compared (p= pi). In spite of considerable evidence that this assumption rarely holds true, it is commonly made in studies of mammal abundance, as when the minimum number alive or indices based on sign counts are used to compare abundance in different habitats or times. Alternatives to relying on this assumption are to calibrate the index used by testing the assumption of p= pi, or to incorporate the estimation of p into the study design.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Multiscale measurement error models for aggregated small area health data.

PubMed

Aregay, Mehreteab; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Carroll, Rachel; Watjou, Kevin

2016-08-01

Spatial data are often aggregated from a finer (smaller) to a coarser (larger) geographical level. The process of data aggregation induces a scaling effect which smoothes the variation in the data. To address the scaling problem, multiscale models that link the convolution models at different scale levels via the shared random effect have been proposed. One of the main goals in aggregated health data is to investigate the relationship between predictors and an outcome at different geographical levels. In this paper, we extend multiscale models to examine whether a predictor effect at a finer level hold true at a coarser level. To adjust for predictor uncertainty due to aggregation, we applied measurement error models in the framework of multiscale approach. To assess the benefit of using multiscale measurement error models, we compare the performance of multiscale models with and without measurement error in both real and simulated data. We found that ignoring the measurement error in multiscale models underestimates the regression coefficient, while it overestimates the variance of the spatially structured random effect. On the other hand, accounting for the measurement error in multiscale models provides a better model fit and unbiased parameter estimates. © The Author(s) 2016.

Robust geostatistical analysis of spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papritz, A.; Künsch, H. R.; Schwierz, C.; Stahel, W. A.

2012-04-01

Most of the geostatistical software tools rely on non-robust algorithms. This is unfortunate, because outlying observations are rather the rule than the exception, in particular in environmental data sets. Outlying observations may results from errors (e.g. in data transcription) or from local perturbations in the processes that are responsible for a given pattern of spatial variation. As an example, the spatial distribution of some trace metal in the soils of a region may be distorted by emissions of local anthropogenic sources. Outliers affect the modelling of the large-scale spatial variation, the so-called external drift or trend, the estimation of the spatial dependence of the residual variation and the predictions by kriging. Identifying outliers manually is cumbersome and requires expertise because one needs parameter estimates to decide which observation is a potential outlier. Moreover, inference after the rejection of some observations is problematic. A better approach is to use robust algorithms that prevent automatically that outlying observations have undue influence. Former studies on robust geostatistics focused on robust estimation of the sample variogram and ordinary kriging without external drift. Furthermore, Richardson and Welsh (1995) [2] proposed a robustified version of (restricted) maximum likelihood ([RE]ML) estimation for the variance components of a linear mixed model, which was later used by Marchant and Lark (2007) [1] for robust REML estimation of the variogram. We propose here a novel method for robust REML estimation of the variogram of a Gaussian random field that is possibly contaminated by independent errors from a long-tailed distribution. It is based on robustification of estimating equations for the Gaussian REML estimation. Besides robust estimates of the parameters of the external drift and of the variogram, the method also provides standard errors for the estimated parameters, robustified kriging predictions at both sampled and unsampled locations and kriging variances. The method has been implemented in an R package. Apart from presenting our modelling framework, we shall present selected simulation results by which we explored the properties of the new method. This will be complemented by an analysis of the Tarrawarra soil moisture data set [3].

Temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelation of daily concentrations of Alnus, Betula, and Corylus pollen in Poland.

PubMed

Nowosad, J; Stach, A; Kasprzyk, I; Grewling, Ł; Latałowa, M; Puc, M; Myszkowska, D; Weryszko-Chmielewska, E; Piotrowska-Weryszko, K; Chłopek, K; Majkowska-Wojciechowska, B; Uruska, A

The aim of the study was to determine the characteristics of temporal and space-time autocorrelation of pollen counts of Alnus , Betula , and Corylus in the air of eight cities in Poland. Daily average pollen concentrations were monitored over 8 years (2001-2005 and 2009-2011) using Hirst-designed volumetric spore traps. The spatial and temporal coherence of data was investigated using the autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions. The calculation and mathematical modelling of 61 correlograms were performed for up to 25 days back. The study revealed an association between temporal variations in Alnus , Betula , and Corylus pollen counts in Poland and three main groups of factors such as: (1) air mass exchange after the passage of a single weather front (30-40 % of pollen count variation); (2) long-lasting factors (50-60 %); and (3) random factors, including diurnal variations and measurements errors (10 %). These results can help to improve the quality of forecasting models.

Spatial Evolution of Human Dialects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burridge, James

2017-07-01

The geographical pattern of human dialects is a result of history. Here, we formulate a simple spatial model of language change which shows that the final result of this historical evolution may, to some extent, be predictable. The model shows that the boundaries of language dialect regions are controlled by a length minimizing effect analogous to surface tension, mediated by variations in population density which can induce curvature, and by the shape of coastline or similar borders. The predictability of dialect regions arises because these effects will drive many complex, randomized early states toward one of a smaller number of stable final configurations. The model is able to reproduce observations and predictions of dialectologists. These include dialect continua, isogloss bundling, fanning, the wavelike spread of dialect features from cities, and the impact of human movement on the number of dialects that an area can support. The model also provides an analytical form for Séguy's curve giving the relationship between geographical and linguistic distance, and a generalization of the curve to account for the presence of a population center. A simple modification allows us to analytically characterize the variation of language use by age in an area undergoing linguistic change.

Multiscale spatial and small-scale temporal variation in the composition of Riverine fish communities.

PubMed

Growns, Ivor; Astles, Karen; Gehrke, Peter

2006-03-01

We studied the multiscale (sites, river reaches and rivers) and short-term temporal (monthly) variability in a freshwater fish assemblage. We found that small-scale spatial variation and short-term temporal variability significantly influenced fish community structure in the Macquarie and Namoi Rivers. However, larger scale spatial differences between rivers were the largest source of variation in the data. The interaction between temporal change and spatial variation in fish community structure, whilst statistically significant, was smaller than the variation between rivers. This suggests that although the fish communities within each river changed between sampling occasions, the underlying differences between rivers were maintained. In contrast, the strongest interaction between temporal and spatial effects occurred at the smallest spatial scale, at the level of individual sites. This means whilst the composition of the fish assemblage at a given site may fluctuate, the magnitude of these changes is unlikely to affect larger scale differences between reaches within rivers or between rivers. These results suggest that sampling at any time within a single season will be sufficient to show spatial differences that occur over large spatial scales, such as comparisons between rivers or between biogeographical regions.

Representation of vegetation by continental data sets derived from NOAA-AVHRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justice, C. O.; Townshend, J. R. G.; Kalb, V. L.

1991-01-01

Images of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are examined with specific attention given to the effect of spatial scales on the understanding of surface phenomena. A scale variance analysis is conducted on NDVI annual and seasonal images of Africa taken from 1987 NOAA-AVHRR data at spatial scales ranging from 8-512 km. The scales at which spatial variation takes place are determined and the relative magnitude of the variations are considered. Substantial differences are demonstrated, notably an increase in spatial variation with coarsening spatial resolution. Different responses in scale variance as a function of spatial resolution are noted in an analysis of maximum value composites for February and September; the difference is most marked in areas with very seasonal vegetation. The spatial variation at different scales is attributed to different factors, and methods involving the averaging of areas of transition and surface heterogeneity can oversimplify surface conditions. The spatial characteristics and the temporal variability of areas should be considered to accurately apply satellite data to global models.

Rapid dark-blood carotid vessel-wall imaging with random bipolar gradients in a radial SSFP acquisition.

PubMed

Lin, Hung-Yu; Flask, Chris A; Dale, Brian M; Duerk, Jeffrey L

2007-06-01

To investigate and evaluate a new rapid dark-blood vessel-wall imaging method using random bipolar gradients with a radial steady-state free precession (SSFP) acquisition in carotid applications. The carotid artery bifurcations of four asymptomatic volunteers (28-37 years old, mean age = 31 years) were included in this study. Dark-blood contrast was achieved through the use of random bipolar gradients applied prior to the signal acquisition of each radial projection in a balanced SSFP acquisition. The resulting phase variation for moving spins established significant destructive interference in the low-frequency region of k-space. This phase variation resulted in a net nulling of the signal from flowing spins, while the bipolar gradients had a minimal effect on the static spins. The net effect was that the regular SSFP signal amplitude (SA) in stationary tissues was preserved while dark-blood contrast was achieved for moving spins. In this implementation, application of the random bipolar gradient pulses along all three spatial directions nulled the signal from both in-plane and through-plane flow in phantom and in vivo studies. In vivo imaging trials confirmed that dark-blood contrast can be achieved with the radial random bipolar SSFP method, thereby substantially reversing the vessel-to-lumen contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of a conventional rectilinear SSFP "bright-blood" acquisition from bright blood to dark blood with only a modest increase in TR (approximately 4 msec) to accommodate the additional bipolar gradients. Overall, this sequence offers a simple and effective dark-blood contrast mechanism for high-SNR SSFP acquisitions in vessel wall imaging within a short acquisition time.

A reference dataset for deformable image registration spatial accuracy evaluation using the COPDgene study archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Richard; Castillo, Edward; Fuentes, David; Ahmad, Moiz; Wood, Abbie M.; Ludwig, Michelle S.; Guerrero, Thomas

2013-05-01

Landmark point-pairs provide a strategy to assess deformable image registration (DIR) accuracy in terms of the spatial registration of the underlying anatomy depicted in medical images. In this study, we propose to augment a publicly available database (www.dir-lab.com) of medical images with large sets of manually identified anatomic feature pairs between breath-hold computed tomography (BH-CT) images for DIR spatial accuracy evaluation. Ten BH-CT image pairs were randomly selected from the COPDgene study cases. Each patient had received CT imaging of the entire thorax in the supine position at one-fourth dose normal expiration and maximum effort full dose inspiration. Using dedicated in-house software, an imaging expert manually identified large sets of anatomic feature pairs between images. Estimates of inter- and intra-observer spatial variation in feature localization were determined by repeat measurements of multiple observers over subsets of randomly selected features. 7298 anatomic landmark features were manually paired between the 10 sets of images. Quantity of feature pairs per case ranged from 447 to 1172. Average 3D Euclidean landmark displacements varied substantially among cases, ranging from 12.29 (SD: 6.39) to 30.90 (SD: 14.05) mm. Repeat registration of uniformly sampled subsets of 150 landmarks for each case yielded estimates of observer localization error, which ranged in average from 0.58 (SD: 0.87) to 1.06 (SD: 2.38) mm for each case. The additions to the online web database (www.dir-lab.com) described in this work will broaden the applicability of the reference data, providing a freely available common dataset for targeted critical evaluation of DIR spatial accuracy performance in multiple clinical settings. Estimates of observer variance in feature localization suggest consistent spatial accuracy for all observers across both four-dimensional CT and COPDgene patient cohorts.

Genomic Selection in Multi-environment Crop Trials.

PubMed

Oakey, Helena; Cullis, Brian; Thompson, Robin; Comadran, Jordi; Halpin, Claire; Waugh, Robbie

2016-05-03

Genomic selection in crop breeding introduces modeling challenges not found in animal studies. These include the need to accommodate replicate plants for each line, consider spatial variation in field trials, address line by environment interactions, and capture nonadditive effects. Here, we propose a flexible single-stage genomic selection approach that resolves these issues. Our linear mixed model incorporates spatial variation through environment-specific terms, and also randomization-based design terms. It considers marker, and marker by environment interactions using ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction to extend genomic selection to multiple environments. Since the approach uses the raw data from line replicates, the line genetic variation is partitioned into marker and nonmarker residual genetic variation (i.e., additive and nonadditive effects). This results in a more precise estimate of marker genetic effects. Using barley height data from trials, in 2 different years, of up to 477 cultivars, we demonstrate that our new genomic selection model improves predictions compared to current models. Analyzing single trials revealed improvements in predictive ability of up to 5.7%. For the multiple environment trial (MET) model, combining both year trials improved predictive ability up to 11.4% compared to a single environment analysis. Benefits were significant even when fewer markers were used. Compared to a single-year standard model run with 3490 markers, our partitioned MET model achieved the same predictive ability using between 500 and 1000 markers depending on the trial. Our approach can be used to increase accuracy and confidence in the selection of the best lines for breeding and/or, to reduce costs by using fewer markers. Copyright © 2016 Oakey et al.

Temporal and spatial distribution of Microcystis biomass and genotype in bloom areas of Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Guan, Dong-Xing; Wang, Xingyu; Xu, Huacheng; Chen, Li; Li, Pengfu; Ma, Lena Q

2018-06-26

Cyanobacterial blooms as a global environmental issue are of public health concern. In this study, we investigated the spatial (10 sites) and temporal (June, August and October) variations in: 1) their biomass based on chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration, 2) their toxic genotype based on gene copy ratio of mcyJ to cpcBA, and 3) their cpcBA genotype composition of Microcystis during cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu. While spatial-temporal variations were found in chl-a and mcyJ/cpcBA ratio, only spatial variation was observed in cpcBA genotype composition. Samples from northwestern part had a higher chl-a, but mcyJ/cpcBA ratio didn't vary among the sites. High chl-a was observed in August, while mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and genotypic richness increased with time. The spatial variations in chl-a and mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and temporal variation in cpcBA genotype were correlated negatively with dissolved N and positively with dissolved P. Spatial distribution of Microcystis biomass was positively correlated with nitrite and P excluding October, but no correlation was found for spatial distribution of mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and cpcBA genotype. Spatial distribution of toxic and cpcBA genotypes may result from horizontal transport of Microcystis colonies, while spatial variation in Microcystis biomass was probably controlled by both nutrient-mediated growth and horizontal transport of Microcystis. The temporal variation in Microcystis biomass, toxic genotype and cpcBA genotype composition were related to nutrient levels, but cause-and-effect relationships require further study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting changes in the spatial distribution of nitrate contamination in ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Z.-J.; Hallberg, G.R.; Zimmerman, D.L.; Libra, R.D.

1997-01-01

Many studies of ground water pollution in general and nitrate contamination in particular have often relied on a one-time investigation, tracking of individual wells, or aggregate summaries. Studies of changes in spatial distribution of contaminants over time are lacking. This paper presents a method to compare spatial distributions for possible changes over time. The large-scale spatial distribution at a given time can be considered as a surface over the area (a trend surface). The changes in spatial distribution from period to period can be revealed by the differences in the shape and/or height of surfaces. If such a surface is described by a polynomial function, changes in surfaces can be detected by testing statistically for differences in their corresponding polynomial functions. This method was applied to nitrate concentration in a population of wells in an agricultural drainage basin in Iowa, sampled in three different years. For the period of 1981-1992, the large-scale spatial distribution of nitrate concentration did not show significant change in the shape of spatial surfaces; while the magnitude of nitrate concentration in the basin, or height of the computed surfaces showed significant fluctuations. The change in magnitude of nitrate concentration is closely related to climatic variations, especially in precipitation. The lack of change in the shape of spatial surfaces means that either the influence of land use/nitrogen management was overshadowed by climatic influence, or the changes in land use/management occurred in a random fashion.

Evidence of Dynamic Crustal Deformation in Tohoku, Japan, From Time-Varying Receiver Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porritt, R. W.; Yoshioka, S.

2017-10-01

Temporal variation of crustal structure is key to our understanding of Earth processes on human timescales. Often, we expect that the most significant structural variations are caused by strong ground shaking associated with large earthquakes, and recent studies seem to confirm this. Here we test the possibility of using P receiver functions (PRF) to isolate structural variations over time. Synthetic receiver function tests indicate that structural variation could produce PRF changes on the same order of magnitude as random noise or contamination by local earthquakes. Nonetheless, we find significant variability in observed receiver functions over time at several stations located in northeastern Honshu. Immediately following the Tohoku-oki earthquake, we observe high PRF variation clustering spatially, especially in two regions near the beginning and end of the rupture plane. Due to the depth sensitivity of PRF and the timescales over which this variability is observed, we infer this effect is primarily due to fluid migration in volcanic regions and shear stress/strength reorganization. While the noise levels in PRF are high for this type of analysis, by sampling small data sets, the computational cost is lower than other methods, such as ambient noise, thereby making PRF a useful tool for estimating temporal variations in crustal structure.

Post-Secondary Science Students' Explanations of "Randomness" and "Variation" and Implications for Science Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gougis, Rebekka Darner; Stomberg, Janet F.; O'Hare, Alicia T.; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Bader, Nicholas E.; Meixner, Thomas; Carey, Cayelan C.

2017-01-01

The concepts of randomness and variation are pervasive in science. The purpose of this study was to document how post-secondary life science students explain randomness and variation, infer relationships between their explanations, and ability to describe and identify appropriate and inappropriate variation, and determine if students can identify…

Point and interval estimation of pollinator importance: a study using pollination data of Silene caroliniana.

PubMed

Reynolds, Richard J; Fenster, Charles B

2008-05-01

Pollinator importance, the product of visitation rate and pollinator effectiveness, is a descriptive parameter of the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator interactions. Naturally, sources of its variation should be investigated, but the SE of pollinator importance has never been properly reported. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation study and a result from mathematical statistics on the variance of the product of two random variables are used to estimate the mean and confidence limits of pollinator importance for three visitor species of the wildflower, Silene caroliniana. Both methods provided similar estimates of mean pollinator importance and its interval if the sample size of the visitation and effectiveness datasets were comparatively large. These approaches allowed us to determine that bumblebee importance was significantly greater than clearwing hawkmoth, which was significantly greater than beefly. The methods could be used to statistically quantify temporal and spatial variation in pollinator importance of particular visitor species. The approaches may be extended for estimating the variance of more than two random variables. However, unless the distribution function of the resulting statistic is known, the simulation approach is preferable for calculating the parameter's confidence limits.

Temporal and spatial variations of soil carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide fluxes in a Southeast Asian tropical rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itoh, M.; Kosugi, Y.; Takanashi, S.; Hayashi, Y.; Kanemitsu, S.; Osaka, K.; Tani, M.; Nik, A. R.

2010-09-01

To clarify the factors controlling temporal and spatial variations of soil carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, we investigated these gas fluxes and environmental factors in a tropical rainforest in Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal variation of CO2 flux in a 2-ha plot was positively related to soil water condition and rainfall history. Spatially, CO2 flux was negatively related to soil water condition. When CO2 flux hotspots were included, no other environmental factors such as soil C or N concentrations showed any significant correlation. Although the larger area sampled in the present study complicates explanations of spatial variation of CO2 flux, our results support a previously reported bipolar relationship between the temporal and spatial patterns of CO2 flux and soil water condition observed at the study site in a smaller study plot. Flux of CH4 was usually negative with little variation, resulting in the soil at our study site functioning as a CH4 sink. Both temporal and spatial variations of CH4 flux were positively related to the soil water condition. Soil N concentration was also related to the spatial distribution of CH4 flux. Some hotspots were observed, probably due to CH4 production by termites, and these hotspots obscured the relationship between both temporal and spatial variations of CH4 flux and environmental factors. Temporal variation of N2O flux and soil N2O concentration was large and significantly related to the soil water condition, or in a strict sense, to rainfall history. Thus, the rainfall pattern controlled wet season N2O production in soil and its soil surface flux. Spatially, large N2O emissions were detected in wet periods at wetter and anaerobic locations, and were thus determined by soil physical properties. Our results showed that, even in Southeast Asian rainforests where distinct dry and wet seasons do not exist, variation in the soil water condition related to rainfall history controlled the temporal variations of soil CO2 flux, CH4 uptake, and N2O emission. The soil water condition associated with soil hydraulic properties was also the important controlling factor of the spatial distributions of these gas fluxes.

Modelling Geomechanical Heterogeneity of Rock Masses Using Direct and Indirect Geostatistical Conditional Simulation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eivazy, Hesameddin; Esmaieli, Kamran; Jean, Raynald

2017-12-01

An accurate characterization and modelling of rock mass geomechanical heterogeneity can lead to more efficient mine planning and design. Using deterministic approaches and random field methods for modelling rock mass heterogeneity is known to be limited in simulating the spatial variation and spatial pattern of the geomechanical properties. Although the applications of geostatistical techniques have demonstrated improvements in modelling the heterogeneity of geomechanical properties, geostatistical estimation methods such as Kriging result in estimates of geomechanical variables that are not fully representative of field observations. This paper reports on the development of 3D models for spatial variability of rock mass geomechanical properties using geostatistical conditional simulation method based on sequential Gaussian simulation. A methodology to simulate the heterogeneity of rock mass quality based on the rock mass rating is proposed and applied to a large open-pit mine in Canada. Using geomechanical core logging data collected from the mine site, a direct and an indirect approach were used to model the spatial variability of rock mass quality. The results of the two modelling approaches were validated against collected field data. The study aims to quantify the risks of pit slope failure and provides a measure of uncertainties in spatial variability of rock mass properties in different areas of the pit.

A Scalable Field Study Protocol and Rationale for Passive Ambient Air Sampling: A Spatial Phytosampling for Leaf Data Collection

PubMed Central

Oyana, Tonny J.; Lomnicki, Slawomir M.; Guo, Chuqi; Cormier, Stephania A.

2018-01-01

Stable, bioreactive, radicals known as environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) have been found to exist on the surface of airborne PM2.5. These EPFRs have been found to form during many combustion processes, are present in vehicular exhaust, and persist in the environment for weeks and biological systems for up to 12 h. To measure EPFRs in PM samples, high volume samplers are required and measurements are less representative of community exposure; therefore, we developed a novel spatial phytosampling methodology to study the spatial patterns of EPFR concentrations using plants. Leaf samples for laboratory PM analysis were collected from 188 randomly drawn sampling sites within a 500-m buffer zone of pollution sources across a sampling grid measuring 32.9 × 28.4 km in Memphis, Tennessee. PM was isolated from the intact leaves and size fractionated, and EPFRs on PM quantified by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. The radical concentration was found to positively correlate with the EPFR g-value, thus indicating cumulative content of oxygen centered radicals in PM with higher EPFR load. Our spatial phytosampling approach reveals spatial variations and potential “hotspots” risk due to EPFR exposure across Memphis and provides valuable insights for identifying exposure and demographic differences for health studies. PMID:28805054

Spatial response surface modelling in the presence of data paucity for the evaluation of potential human health risk due to the contamination of potable water resources.

PubMed

Liu, Shen; McGree, James; Hayes, John F; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2016-10-01

Potential human health risk from waterborne diseases arising from unsatisfactory performance of on-site wastewater treatment systems is driven by landscape factors such as topography, soil characteristics, depth to water table, drainage characteristics and the presence of surface water bodies. These factors are present as random variables which are spatially distributed across a region. A methodological framework is presented that can be applied to model and evaluate the influence of various factors on waterborne disease potential. This framework is informed by spatial data and expert knowledge. For prediction at unsampled sites, interpolation methods were used to derive a spatially smoothed surface of disease potential which takes into account the uncertainty due to spatial variation at any pre-determined level of significance. This surface was constructed by accounting for the influence of multiple variables which appear to contribute to disease potential. The framework developed in this work strengthens the understanding of the characteristics of disease potential and provides predictions of this potential across a region. The study outcomes presented constitutes an innovative approach to environmental monitoring and management in the face of data paucity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generalized estimators of avian abundance from count survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

I consider modeling avian abundance from spatially referenced bird count data collected according to common protocols such as capture?recapture, multiple observer, removal sampling and simple point counts. Small sample sizes and large numbers of parameters have motivated many analyses that disregard the spatial indexing of the data, and thus do not provide an adequate treatment of spatial structure. I describe a general framework for modeling spatially replicated data that regards local abundance as a random process, motivated by the view that the set of spatially referenced local populations (at the sample locations) constitute a metapopulation. Under this view, attention can be focused on developing a model for the variation in local abundance independent of the sampling protocol being considered. The metapopulation model structure, when combined with the data generating model, define a simple hierarchical model that can be analyzed using conventional methods. The proposed modeling framework is completely general in the sense that broad classes of metapopulation models may be considered, site level covariates on detection and abundance may be considered, and estimates of abundance and related quantities may be obtained for sample locations, groups of locations, unsampled locations. Two brief examples are given, the first involving simple point counts, and the second based on temporary removal counts. Extension of these models to open systems is briefly discussed.

A Scalable Field Study Protocol and Rationale for Passive Ambient Air Sampling: A Spatial Phytosampling for Leaf Data Collection.

PubMed

Oyana, Tonny J; Lomnicki, Slawomir M; Guo, Chuqi; Cormier, Stephania A

2017-09-19

Stable, bioreactive, radicals known as environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) have been found to exist on the surface of airborne PM 2.5 . These EPFRs have been found to form during many combustion processes, are present in vehicular exhaust, and persist in the environment for weeks and biological systems for up to 12 h. To measure EPFRs in PM samples, high volume samplers are required and measurements are less representative of community exposure; therefore, we developed a novel spatial phytosampling methodology to study the spatial patterns of EPFR concentrations using plants. Leaf samples for laboratory PM analysis were collected from 188 randomly drawn sampling sites within a 500-m buffer zone of pollution sources across a sampling grid measuring 32.9 × 28.4 km in Memphis, Tennessee. PM was isolated from the intact leaves and size fractionated, and EPFRs on PM quantified by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. The radical concentration was found to positively correlate with the EPFR g-value, thus indicating cumulative content of oxygen centered radicals in PM with higher EPFR load. Our spatial phytosampling approach reveals spatial variations and potential "hotspots" risk due to EPFR exposure across Memphis and provides valuable insights for identifying exposure and demographic differences for health studies.

Spatial grain and the causes of regional diversity gradients in ants.

PubMed

Kaspari, Michael; Yuan, May; Alonso, Leeanne

2003-03-01

Gradients of species richness (S; the number of species of a given taxon in a given area and time) are ubiquitous. A key goal in ecology is to understand whether and how the many processes that generate these gradients act at different spatial scales. Here we evaluate six hypotheses for diversity gradients with 49 New World ant communities, from tundra to rain forest. We contrast their performance at three spatial grains from S(plot), the average number of ant species nesting in a m2 plot, through Fisher's alpha, an index that treats our 30 1-m2 plots as subsamples of a locality's diversity. At the smallest grain, S(plot), was tightly correlated (r2 = 0.99) with colony abundance in a fashion indistinguishable from the packing of randomly selected individuals into a fixed space. As spatial grain increased, the coaction of two factors linked to high net rates of diversification--warm temperatures and large areas of uniform climate--accounted for 75% of the variation in Fisher's alpha. However, the mechanisms underlying these correlations (i.e., precisely how temperature and area shape the balance of speciation to extinction) remain elusive.

Temporal and spatial characterization of zenith total delay (ZTD) in North Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoew, B.; Elgered, G.

2003-04-01

The estimates of ZTD are often treated as realizations of random walk stochastic processes. We derive the corresponding process parameters for 34 different locations in North Europe using two measurement techniques - Global Positioning System (GPS) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR). GPS-estimated ZTD is an excellent candidate for data assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in terms of both spatial and temporal resolution. We characterize the long term behavior of the ZTD as a function of site latitude and height. The spatial characteristics of the ZTD are studied as a function of site separation and season. We investigate the influence of the time-interpolated atmospheric pressure data used for the estimation of zenith wet delay (ZWD) from ZTD. Characterization of extreme atmospheric events can aid the development of an early warning system. We consider two types of extreme meteorological phenomena with regard to their spatial scales. The first type concerns larger regions (including several GPS sites); the extreme weather is characterized by intense precipitation which may result in a flood. The second type is related to local variations in the ZWD/ZTD and can be used for detection/monitoring of passing atmospheric fronts.

Sensitivity of grassland plant community composition to spatial vs. temporal variation in precipitation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate gradients shape spatial variation in the richness and composition of plant communities. Given future predicted changes in climate means and variability, and likely regional variation in the magnitudes of these changes, it is important to determine how temporal variation in climate influences...

Systematic and random variations in digital Thematic Mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duggin, M. J. (Principal Investigator); Sakhavat, H.

1985-01-01

Radiance recorded by any remote sensing instrument will contain noise which will consist of both systematic and random variations. Systematic variations may be due to sun-target-sensor geometry, atmospheric conditions, and the interaction of the spectral characteristics of the sensor with those of upwelling radiance. Random variations in the data may be caused by variations in the nature and in the heterogeneity of the ground cover, by variations in atmospheric transmission, and by the interaction of these variations with the sensing device. It is important to be aware of the extent of random and systematic errors in recorded radiance data across ostensibly uniform ground areas in order to assess the impact on quantative image analysis procedures for both the single date and the multidate cases. It is the intention here to examine the systematic and the random variations in digital radiance data recorded in each band by the thematic mapper over crop areas which are ostensibly uniform and which are free from visible cloud.

Hybrid stochastic and deterministic simulations of calcium blips.

PubMed

Rüdiger, S; Shuai, J W; Huisinga, W; Nagaiah, C; Warnecke, G; Parker, I; Falcke, M

2007-09-15

Intracellular calcium release is a prime example for the role of stochastic effects in cellular systems. Recent models consist of deterministic reaction-diffusion equations coupled to stochastic transitions of calcium channels. The resulting dynamics is of multiple time and spatial scales, which complicates far-reaching computer simulations. In this article, we introduce a novel hybrid scheme that is especially tailored to accurately trace events with essential stochastic variations, while deterministic concentration variables are efficiently and accurately traced at the same time. We use finite elements to efficiently resolve the extreme spatial gradients of concentration variables close to a channel. We describe the algorithmic approach and we demonstrate its efficiency compared to conventional methods. Our single-channel model matches experimental data and results in intriguing dynamics if calcium is used as charge carrier. Random openings of the channel accumulate in bursts of calcium blips that may be central for the understanding of cellular calcium dynamics.

Spatial generalised linear mixed models based on distances.

PubMed

Melo, Oscar O; Mateu, Jorge; Melo, Carlos E

2016-10-01

Risk models derived from environmental data have been widely shown to be effective in delineating geographical areas of risk because they are intuitively easy to understand. We present a new method based on distances, which allows the modelling of continuous and non-continuous random variables through distance-based spatial generalised linear mixed models. The parameters are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, which is a feasible and a useful technique. The proposed method depends on a detrending step built from continuous or categorical explanatory variables, or a mixture among them, by using an appropriate Euclidean distance. The method is illustrated through the analysis of the variation in the prevalence of Loa loa among a sample of village residents in Cameroon, where the explanatory variables included elevation, together with maximum normalised-difference vegetation index and the standard deviation of normalised-difference vegetation index calculated from repeated satellite scans over time. © The Author(s) 2013.

Spatial variation and density-dependent dispersal in competitive coexistence.

PubMed Central

Amarasekare, Priyanga

2004-01-01

It is well known that dispersal from localities favourable to a species' growth and reproduction (sources) can prevent competitive exclusion in unfavourable localities (sinks). What is perhaps less well known is that too much emigration can undermine the viability of sources and cause regional competitive exclusion. Here, I investigate two biological mechanisms that reduce the cost of dispersal to source communities. The first involves increasing the spatial variation in the strength of competition such that sources can withstand high rates of emigration; the second involves reducing emigration from sources via density-dependent dispersal. I compare how different forms of spatial variation and modes of dispersal influence source viability, and hence source-sink coexistence, under dominance and pre-emptive competition. A key finding is that, while spatial variation substantially reduces dispersal costs under both types of competition, density-dependent dispersal does so only under dominance competition. For instance, when spatial variation in the strength of competition is high, coexistence is possible (regardless of the type of competition) even when sources experience high emigration rates; when spatial variation is low, coexistence is restricted even under low emigration rates. Under dominance competition, density-dependent dispersal has a strong effect on coexistence. For instance, when the emigration rate increases with density at an accelerating rate (Type III density-dependent dispersal), coexistence is possible even when spatial variation is quite low; when the emigration rate increases with density at a decelerating rate (Type II density-dependent dispersal), coexistence is restricted even when spatial variation is quite high. Under pre-emptive competition, density-dependent dispersal has only a marginal effect on coexistence. Thus, the diversity-reducing effects of high dispersal rates persist under pre-emptive competition even when dispersal is density dependent, but can be significantly mitigated under dominance competition if density-dependent dispersal is Type III rather than Type II. These results lead to testable predictions about source-sink coexistence under different regimes of competition, spatial variation and dispersal. They identify situations in which density-independent dispersal provides a reasonable approximation to species' dispersal patterns, and those under which consideration of density-dependent dispersal is crucial to predicting long-term coexistence. PMID:15306322

Imaging spectroscopy links aspen genotype with below-ground processes at landscape scales

PubMed Central

Madritch, Michael D.; Kingdon, Clayton C.; Singh, Aditya; Mock, Karen E.; Lindroth, Richard L.; Townsend, Philip A.

2014-01-01

Fine-scale biodiversity is increasingly recognized as important to ecosystem-level processes. Remote sensing technologies have great potential to estimate both biodiversity and ecosystem function over large spatial scales. Here, we demonstrate the capacity of imaging spectroscopy to discriminate among genotypes of Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen), one of the most genetically diverse and widespread forest species in North America. We combine imaging spectroscopy (AVIRIS) data with genetic, phytochemical, microbial and biogeochemical data to determine how intraspecific plant genetic variation influences below-ground processes at landscape scales. We demonstrate that both canopy chemistry and below-ground processes vary over large spatial scales (continental) according to aspen genotype. Imaging spectrometer data distinguish aspen genotypes through variation in canopy spectral signature. In addition, foliar spectral variation correlates well with variation in canopy chemistry, especially condensed tannins. Variation in aspen canopy chemistry, in turn, is correlated with variation in below-ground processes. Variation in spectra also correlates well with variation in soil traits. These findings indicate that forest tree species can create spatial mosaics of ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and that these patterns can be quantified via remote sensing techniques. Moreover, they demonstrate the utility of using optical properties as proxies for fine-scale measurements of biodiversity over large spatial scales. PMID:24733949

Genetic Variation in the Acorn Barnacle from Allozymes to Population Genomics

PubMed Central

Flight, Patrick A.; Rand, David M.

2012-01-01

Understanding the patterns of genetic variation within and among populations is a central problem in population and evolutionary genetics. We examine this question in the acorn barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides, in which the allozyme loci Mpi and Gpi have been implicated in balancing selection due to varying selective pressures at different spatial scales. We review the patterns of genetic variation at the Mpi locus, compare this to levels of population differentiation at mtDNA and microsatellites, and place these data in the context of genome-wide variation from high-throughput sequencing of population samples spanning the North Atlantic. Despite considerable geographic variation in the patterns of selection at the Mpi allozyme, this locus shows rather low levels of population differentiation at ecological and trans-oceanic scales (FST ∼ 5%). Pooled population sequencing was performed on samples from Rhode Island (RI), Maine (ME), and Southwold, England (UK). Analysis of more than 650 million reads identified approximately 335,000 high-quality SNPs in 19 million base pairs of the S. balanoides genome. Much variation is shared across the Atlantic, but there are significant examples of strong population differentiation among samples from RI, ME, and UK. An FST outlier screen of more than 22,000 contigs provided a genome-wide context for interpretation of earlier studies on allozymes, mtDNA, and microsatellites. FST values for allozymes, mtDNA and microsatellites are close to the genome-wide average for random SNPs, with the exception of the trans-Atlantic FST for mtDNA. The majority of FST outliers were unique between individual pairs of populations, but some genes show shared patterns of excess differentiation. These data indicate that gene flow is high, that selection is strong on a subset of genes, and that a variety of genes are experiencing diversifying selection at large spatial scales. This survey of polymorphism in S. balanoides provides a number of genomic tools that promise to make this a powerful model for ecological genomics of the rocky intertidal. PMID:22767487

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in evapotranspiration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial and temporal variation in evapotranspiration occurs at multiple scales as the result of several different spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation, soil water holding capacity, cloudiness (available energy), types of crops, and residue and tillage management practices. We have often as...

Shade tree spatial structure and pod production explain frosty pod rot intensity in cacao agroforests, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Gidoin, Cynthia; Avelino, Jacques; Deheuvels, Olivier; Cilas, Christian; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-03-01

Vegetation composition and plant spatial structure affect disease intensity through resource and microclimatic variation effects. The aim of this study was to evaluate the independent effect and relative importance of host composition and plant spatial structure variables in explaining disease intensity at the plot scale. For that purpose, frosty pod rot intensity, a disease caused by Moniliophthora roreri on cacao pods, was monitored in 36 cacao agroforests in Costa Rica in order to assess the vegetation composition and spatial structure variables conducive to the disease. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the most causal factors. Firstly, pod production, cacao tree density and shade tree spatial structure had significant independent effects on disease intensity. In our case study, the amount of susceptible tissue was the most relevant host composition variable for explaining disease intensity by resource dilution. Indeed, cacao tree density probably affected disease intensity more by the creation of self-shading rather than by host dilution. Lastly, only regularly distributed forest trees, and not aggregated or randomly distributed forest trees, reduced disease intensity in comparison to plots with a low forest tree density. A regular spatial structure is probably crucial to the creation of moderate and uniform shade as recommended for frosty pod rot management. As pod production is an important service expected from these agroforests, shade tree spatial structure may be a lever for integrated management of frosty pod rot in cacao agroforests.

Using sequential self-calibration method to identify conductivity distribution: Conditioning on tracer test data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hu, B.X.; He, C.

2008-01-01

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2008.

Neighbourhood effects on body constitution-A case study of Hong Kong.

PubMed

Low, Chien Tat; Lai, Poh Chin; Li, Han Dong; Ho, Wai Kit; Wong, Paulina; Chen, Si; Wong, Wing Cheung

2016-06-01

Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) has long perceived environment as an integral part of the development of body constitution, which is a personal state of health closely related to disease presence. Despite of the ever-growing studies on the clinical effectiveness of TCM and the scientific linking between body constitution and diseases, the geographical influence on body constitution has yet remained an unexplored territory. This study sought to investigate whether the neighbourhood environment is relevant to the composition of body type of a population through statistical multilevel and Geographic Information Systems modelling. The analysis comprised 3277 participants who had completed their body type assessment between 2009 and 2012 inclusive. The multilevel analysis also took simultaneous accounts of both individual-level (gender, age, BMI, type of housing) and area-level (percent greenery, percent road surface, total road intersection, sky view factor, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and social deprivation index) characteristics to explain geographical variation by body types. Significant random or place effects (p < 0.001) were identified in the multilevel models. The spatial variation of body constitution involved the dynamic interplay between individual and environmental factors. The findings amassed the first scientific indications to back the common belief that place does play a role in the development of body constitution and is worthy of further investigation. By considering spatial and personal attributes simultaneously, the study can yield valuable insights into the patterning of area variation in body constitution and disease presence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2013-12-01

Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network. Moreover, predictions of water-balance components are reported according to probabilistic metrics (e.g., percentiles, prediction intervals) that include both parameter and model uncertainties. These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics can inform the development of more accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variations in biogeochemical stores and fluxes (e.g., nutrients and carbon) in watersheds.

Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congdon, Peter

2014-01-01

Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.

Variation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism in relation to changes in delineation of the thyroid gland.

PubMed

Rønjom, Marianne F; Brink, Carsten; Lorenzen, Ebbe L; Hegedüs, Laszlo; Johansen, Jørgen

2015-01-01

To examine the variations of risk-estimates of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (HT) from our previously developed normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in relation to variability of delineation of the thyroid gland. In a previous study for development of an NTCP model for HT, the thyroid gland was delineated in 246 treatment plans of patients with HNSCC. Fifty of these plans were randomly chosen for re-delineation for a study of the intra- and inter-observer variability of thyroid volume, Dmean and estimated risk of HT. Bland-Altman plots were used for assessment of the systematic (mean) and random [standard deviation (SD)] variability of the three parameters, and a method for displaying the spatial variation in delineation differences was developed. Intra-observer variability resulted in a mean difference in thyroid volume and Dmean of 0.4 cm(3) (SD ± 1.6) and -0.5 Gy (SD ± 1.0), respectively, and 0.3 cm(3) (SD ± 1.8) and 0.0 Gy (SD ± 1.3) for inter-observer variability. The corresponding mean differences of NTCP values for radiation-induced HT due to intra- and inter-observer variations were insignificantly small, -0.4% (SD ± 6.0) and -0.7% (SD ± 4.8), respectively, but as the SDs show, for some patients the difference in estimated NTCP was large. For the entire study population, the variation in predicted risk of radiation-induced HT in head and neck cancer was small and our NTCP model was robust against observer variations in delineation of the thyroid gland. However, for the individual patient, there may be large differences in estimated risk which calls for precise delineation of the thyroid gland to obtain correct dose and NTCP estimates for optimized treatment planning in the individual patient.

A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.

1989-01-01

A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.

The study of combining Latin Hypercube Sampling method and LU decomposition method (LULHS method) for constructing spatial random field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, P. T.

2015-12-01

Groundwater modeling requires to assign hydrogeological properties to every numerical grid. Due to the lack of detailed information and the inherent spatial heterogeneity, geological properties can be treated as random variables. Hydrogeological property is assumed to be a multivariate distribution with spatial correlations. By sampling random numbers from a given statistical distribution and assigning a value to each grid, a random field for modeling can be completed. Therefore, statistics sampling plays an important role in the efficiency of modeling procedure. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is a stratified random sampling procedure that provides an efficient way to sample variables from their multivariate distributions. This study combines the the stratified random procedure from LHS and the simulation by using LU decomposition to form LULHS. Both conditional and unconditional simulations of LULHS were develpoed. The simulation efficiency and spatial correlation of LULHS are compared to the other three different simulation methods. The results show that for the conditional simulation and unconditional simulation, LULHS method is more efficient in terms of computational effort. Less realizations are required to achieve the required statistical accuracy and spatial correlation.

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

2014-08-01

As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good, time-stable estimate of mean soil water content, as no improvement was obtained with the 5 × 5 m mesh grid (30 probes). Finally, the results of temporal aggregation showed that decreasing the monitoring frequency down to 8 h during wetting-up periods and to 1 day during drying-down ones did not result in a loss of information on daily soil water content variations.

Different relationships between temporal phylogenetic turnover and phylogenetic similarity and in two forests were detected by a new null model.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Xiong; Zhang, Jian; Shen, Yong; Lian, Ju-yu; Cao, Hong-lin; Ye, Wan-hui; Wu, Lin-fang; Bin, Yue

2014-01-01

Ecologists have been monitoring community dynamics with the purpose of understanding the rates and causes of community change. However, there is a lack of monitoring of community dynamics from the perspective of phylogeny. We attempted to understand temporal phylogenetic turnover in a 50 ha tropical forest (Barro Colorado Island, BCI) and a 20 ha subtropical forest (Dinghushan in southern China, DHS). To obtain temporal phylogenetic turnover under random conditions, two null models were used. The first shuffled names of species that are widely used in community phylogenetic analyses. The second simulated demographic processes with careful consideration on the variation in dispersal ability among species and the variations in mortality both among species and among size classes. With the two models, we tested the relationships between temporal phylogenetic turnover and phylogenetic similarity at different spatial scales in the two forests. Results were more consistent with previous findings using the second null model suggesting that the second null model is more appropriate for our purposes. With the second null model, a significantly positive relationship was detected between phylogenetic turnover and phylogenetic similarity in BCI at a 10 m×10 m scale, potentially indicating phylogenetic density dependence. This relationship in DHS was significantly negative at three of five spatial scales. This could indicate abiotic filtering processes for community assembly. Using variation partitioning, we found phylogenetic similarity contributed to variation in temporal phylogenetic turnover in the DHS plot but not in BCI plot. The mechanisms for community assembly in BCI and DHS vary from phylogenetic perspective. Only the second null model detected this difference indicating the importance of choosing a proper null model.

Cost-effective sampling of ¹³⁷Cs-derived net soil redistribution: part 1--estimating the spatial mean across scales of variation.

PubMed

Li, Y; Chappell, A; Nyamdavaa, B; Yu, H; Davaasuren, D; Zoljargal, K

2015-03-01

The (137)Cs technique for estimating net time-integrated soil redistribution is valuable for understanding the factors controlling soil redistribution by all processes. The literature on this technique is dominated by studies of individual fields and describes its typically time-consuming nature. We contend that the community making these studies has inappropriately assumed that many (137)Cs measurements are required and hence estimates of net soil redistribution can only be made at the field scale. Here, we support future studies of (137)Cs-derived net soil redistribution to apply their often limited resources across scales of variation (field, catchment, region etc.) without compromising the quality of the estimates at any scale. We describe a hybrid, design-based and model-based, stratified random sampling design with composites to estimate the sampling variance and a cost model for fieldwork and laboratory measurements. Geostatistical mapping of net (1954-2012) soil redistribution as a case study on the Chinese Loess Plateau is compared with estimates for several other sampling designs popular in the literature. We demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of the hybrid design for spatial estimation of net soil redistribution. To demonstrate the limitations of current sampling approaches to cut across scales of variation, we extrapolate our estimate of net soil redistribution across the region, show that for the same resources, estimates from many fields could have been provided and would elucidate the cause of differences within and between regional estimates. We recommend that future studies evaluate carefully the sampling design to consider the opportunity to investigate (137)Cs-derived net soil redistribution across scales of variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial variations in zooplankton community structure along the Japanese coastline in the Japan Sea: influence of the coastal current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodama, Taketoshi; Wagawa, Taku; Iguchi, Naoki; Takada, Yoshitake; Takahashi, Takashi; Fukudome, Ken-Ichi; Morimoto, Haruyuki; Goto, Tsuneo

2018-06-01

This study evaluates spatial variations in zooplankton community structure and potential controlling factors along the Japanese coast under the influence of the coastal branch of the Tsushima Warm Current (CBTWC). Variations in the density of morphologically identified zooplankton in the surface layer in May were investigated for a 15-year period. The density of zooplankton (individuals per cubic meter) varied between sampling stations, but there was no consistent west-east trend. Instead, there were different zooplankton community structures in the west and east, with that in Toyama Bay particularly distinct: Corycaeus affinis and Calanus sinicus were dominant in the west and Oithona atlantica was dominant in Toyama Bay. Distance-based redundancy analysis (db-RDA) was used to characterize the variation in zooplankton community structure, and four axes (RD1-4) provided significant explanation. RD2-4 only explained < 4.8 % of variation in the zooplankton community and did not show significant spatial difference; however, RD1, which explained 89.9 % of variation, did vary spatially. Positive and negative species scores on RD1 represent warm- and cold-water species, respectively, and their variation was mainly explained by water column mean temperature, and it is considered to vary spatially with the CBTWC. The CBTWC intrusion to the cold Toyama Bay is weak and occasional due to the submarine canyon structure of the bay. Therefore, the varying bathymetric characteristics along the Japanese coast of the Japan Sea generate the spatial variation in zooplankton community structure, and dominance of warm-water species can be considered an indicator of the CBTWC.

Biomarker patterns in present-day vegetation: consistency and variation - A study on plaggen soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkels, Frédérique; Jansen, Boris; Kalbitz, Karsten

2013-04-01

Biomarker patterns in present-day vegetation are commonly used as proxies to reconstruct paleo-vegetation composition, land use history and to elucidate carbon cycling. Plaggen soils are formed by diverse vegetational inputs during century-long plaggen (i.e. sod) application associated with plaggen-agriculture on poor soils in north-western Europe. This resulted in remarkably stable organic matter. Plant source identification by biomarkers could provide insight in yet unknown stabilization mechanisms and the fate of organic matter upon ongoing land use change. The current rationale behind biomarker-based source identification is that patterns observed in present-day vegetation are generally representative with little random variation. However, our knowledge on variability and consistency of biomarker patterns is yet scarce. Therefore, to assess the applicability of biomarkers for source identification in plaggen soils, we analyzed published n-alkane and n-alcohol patterns of species and their various parts which contribute(d) input to plaggen soils. We considered shrubs, trees and grass species and evaluated rescaled patterns (i.e. relative abundances in chain-length range C17-36), odd-over-even predominance (OEP) and predominant n-alkanes. In addition, we explicitly looked into potential sources of systematic variation, e.g. spatial variation (climate, site conditions), temporal variation (seasonality, ontogeny) and laboratory methodology (extraction technique: washing/shaking, Soxhlet/ASE, saponification). We found meaningful clustering of n-alkanes C27, C29, C31 and C33, allowing for clear distinction of input by shrubs, trees and grasses to plaggen soils. Combination of these homologues with complete n-alkane patterns (C17-36) and OEP enabled further differentiation, while n-alcohols patterns were less distinct. Current limitation is the lack of extended and diverse quantitative records on biomarker patterns, especially for n-alcohols, non-leaf and belowground tissues, which hindered full statistical analysis. On species level we also recognized outliers and spreading. Systematic variation was indicated among tree species according to spatial conditions and by ontogeny. Yet, observed effects were ambiguous for other variation sources. This study highlights clear opportunities for application of biomarker patterns for source identification and elucidation of stabilization processes in (plaggen) soils. At the same time, application is challenged by systematic variation. Further research is key to quantify controls, magnitude and potential correction factors for such systematic variation. This would validate the use of n-alkane and n-alcohol patterns across broad spatial and temporal scales or identify boundaries wherein their consistency is ensured. Likely, these challenges apply to vegetation in a broad perspective, transcending plaggen vegetation, as assessment and application of present-day vegetation patterns is emerging.

Damage spreading in spatial and small-world random Boolean networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Qiming; Teuscher, Christof

2014-02-01

The study of the response of complex dynamical social, biological, or technological networks to external perturbations has numerous applications. Random Boolean networks (RBNs) are commonly used as a simple generic model for certain dynamics of complex systems. Traditionally, RBNs are interconnected randomly and without considering any spatial extension and arrangement of the links and nodes. However, most real-world networks are spatially extended and arranged with regular, power-law, small-world, or other nonrandom connections. Here we explore the RBN network topology between extreme local connections, random small-world, and pure random networks, and study the damage spreading with small perturbations. We find that spatially local connections change the scaling of the Hamming distance at very low connectivities (K¯≪1) and that the critical connectivity of stability Ks changes compared to random networks. At higher K¯, this scaling remains unchanged. We also show that the Hamming distance of spatially local networks scales with a power law as the system size N increases, but with a different exponent for local and small-world networks. The scaling arguments for small-world networks are obtained with respect to the system sizes and strength of spatially local connections. We further investigate the wiring cost of the networks. From an engineering perspective, our new findings provide the key design trade-offs between damage spreading (robustness), the network's wiring cost, and the network's communication characteristics.

Tree spatial structure, host composition and resource availability influence mirid density or black pod prevalence in cacao agroforests in Cameroon.

PubMed

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation.

Tree Spatial Structure, Host Composition and Resource Availability Influence Mirid Density or Black Pod Prevalence in Cacao Agroforests in Cameroon

PubMed Central

Gidoin, Cynthia; Babin, Régis; Bagny Beilhe, Leïla; Cilas, Christian; ten Hoopen, Gerben Martijn; Bieng, Marie Ange Ngo

2014-01-01

Combining crop plants with other plant species in agro-ecosystems is one way to enhance ecological pest and disease regulation mechanisms. Resource availability and microclimatic variation mechanisms affect processes related to pest and pathogen life cycles. These mechanisms are supported both by empirical research and by epidemiological models, yet their relative importance in a real complex agro-ecosystem is still not known. Our aim was thus to assess the independent effects and the relative importance of different variables related to resource availability and microclimatic variation that explain pest and disease occurrence at the plot scale in real complex agro-ecosystems. The study was conducted in cacao (Theobroma cacao) agroforests in Cameroon, where cocoa production is mainly impacted by the mirid bug, Sahlbergella singularis, and black pod disease, caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Vegetation composition and spatial structure, resource availability and pest and disease occurrence were characterized in 20 real agroforest plots. Hierarchical partitioning was used to identify the causal variables that explain mirid density and black pod prevalence. The results of this study show that cacao agroforests can be differentiated on the basis of vegetation composition and spatial structure. This original approach revealed that mirid density decreased when a minimum number of randomly distributed forest trees were present compared with the aggregated distribution of forest trees, or when forest tree density was low. Moreover, a decrease in mirid density was also related to decreased availability of sensitive tissue, independently of the effect of forest tree structure. Contrary to expectations, black pod prevalence decreased with increasing cacao tree abundance. By revealing the effects of vegetation composition and spatial structure on mirids and black pod, this study opens new perspectives for the joint agro-ecological management of cacao pests and diseases at the plot scale, through the optimization of the spatial structure and composition of the vegetation. PMID:25313514

Assessing temporally and spatially resolved PM 2.5 exposures for epidemiological studies using satellite aerosol optical depth measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloog, Itai; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lee, Hyung Joo; Schwartz, Joel

2011-11-01

Land use regression (LUR) models provide good estimates of spatially resolved long-term exposures, but are poor at capturing short term exposures. Satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) measurements have the potential to provide spatio-temporally resolved predictions of both long and short term exposures, but previous studies have generally showed relatively low predictive power. Our objective was to extend our previous work on day-specific calibrations of AOD data using ground PM 2.5 measurements by incorporating commonly used LUR variables and meteorological variables, thus benefiting from both the spatial resolution from the LUR models and the spatio-temporal resolution from the satellite models. Later we use spatial smoothing to predict PM 2.5 concentrations for day/locations with missing AOD measures. We used mixed models with random slopes for day to calibrate AOD data for 2000-2008 across New-England with monitored PM 2.5 measurements. We then used a generalized additive mixed model with spatial smoothing to estimate PM 2.5 in location-day pairs with missing AOD, using regional measured PM 2.5, AOD values in neighboring cells, and land use. Finally, local (100 m) land use terms were used to model the difference between grid cell prediction and monitored value to capture very local traffic particles. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. For days with available AOD data we found high out-of-sample R2 (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.830, year to year variation 0.725-0.904). For days without AOD values, our model performance was also excellent (mean out-of-sample R2 = 0.810, year to year variation 0.692-0.887). Importantly, these R2 are for daily, rather than monthly or yearly, values. Our model allows one to assess short term and long-term human exposures in order to investigate both the acute and chronic effects of ambient particles, respectively.

Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012

PubMed Central

Amin, Raid; Nabors, Nicole S.; Nelson, Arlene M.; Saqlain, Murshid; Kulldorff, Martin

2016-01-01

Background While rape is a very serious crime and public health problem, no spatial mapping has been attempted for rape on the national scale. This paper addresses the three research questions: (1) Are reported rape cases randomly distributed across the USA, after being adjusted for population density and age, or are there geographical clusters of reported rape cases? (2) Are the geographical clusters of reported rapes still present after adjusting for differences in poverty levels? (3) Are there geographical clusters where the proportion of reported rape cases that lead to an arrest is exceptionally low or exceptionally high? Methods We studied the geographical variation of reported rape events (2003-2012) and rape arrests (2000-2012) in the 48 contiguous states of the USA. The disease Surveillance software SaTScan™ with its spatial scan statistic is used to evaluate the spatial variation in rapes. The spatial scan statistic has been widely used as a geographical surveillance tool for diseases, and we used it to identify geographical areas with clusters of reported rape and clusters of arrest rates for rape. Results The spatial scan statistic was used to identify geographical areas with exceptionally high rates of reported rape. The analyses were adjusted for age, and in secondary analyses, for both age and poverty level. We also identified geographical areas with either a low or a high proportion of reported rapes leading to an arrest. Conclusions We have identified geographical areas with exceptionally high (low) rates of reported rape. The geographical problem areas identified are prime candidates for more intensive preventive counseling and criminal prosecution efforts by public health, social service, and law enforcement agencies Geographical clusters of high rates of reported rape are prime areas in need of expanded implementation of preventive measures, such as changing attitudes in our society toward rape crimes, in addition to having the criminal justice system play an even larger role in preventing rape. PMID:28078318

Geographical Clusters of Rape in the United States: 2000-2012.

PubMed

Amin, Raid; Nabors, Nicole S; Nelson, Arlene M; Saqlain, Murshid; Kulldorff, Martin

2015-01-01

While rape is a very serious crime and public health problem, no spatial mapping has been attempted for rape on the national scale. This paper addresses the three research questions: (1) Are reported rape cases randomly distributed across the USA, after being adjusted for population density and age, or are there geographical clusters of reported rape cases? (2) Are the geographical clusters of reported rapes still present after adjusting for differences in poverty levels? (3) Are there geographical clusters where the proportion of reported rape cases that lead to an arrest is exceptionally low or exceptionally high? We studied the geographical variation of reported rape events (2003-2012) and rape arrests (2000-2012) in the 48 contiguous states of the USA. The disease Surveillance software SaTScan™ with its spatial scan statistic is used to evaluate the spatial variation in rapes. The spatial scan statistic has been widely used as a geographical surveillance tool for diseases, and we used it to identify geographical areas with clusters of reported rape and clusters of arrest rates for rape. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify geographical areas with exceptionally high rates of reported rape. The analyses were adjusted for age, and in secondary analyses, for both age and poverty level. We also identified geographical areas with either a low or a high proportion of reported rapes leading to an arrest. We have identified geographical areas with exceptionally high (low) rates of reported rape. The geographical problem areas identified are prime candidates for more intensive preventive counseling and criminal prosecution efforts by public health, social service, and law enforcement agencies Geographical clusters of high rates of reported rape are prime areas in need of expanded implementation of preventive measures, such as changing attitudes in our society toward rape crimes, in addition to having the criminal justice system play an even larger role in preventing rape.

Applications of step-selection functions in ecology and conservation.

PubMed

Thurfjell, Henrik; Ciuti, Simone; Boyce, Mark S

2014-01-01

Recent progress in positioning technology facilitates the collection of massive amounts of sequential spatial data on animals. This has led to new opportunities and challenges when investigating animal movement behaviour and habitat selection. Tools like Step Selection Functions (SSFs) are relatively new powerful models for studying resource selection by animals moving through the landscape. SSFs compare environmental attributes of observed steps (the linear segment between two consecutive observations of position) with alternative random steps taken from the same starting point. SSFs have been used to study habitat selection, human-wildlife interactions, movement corridors, and dispersal behaviours in animals. SSFs also have the potential to depict resource selection at multiple spatial and temporal scales. There are several aspects of SSFs where consensus has not yet been reached such as how to analyse the data, when to consider habitat covariates along linear paths between observations rather than at their endpoints, how many random steps should be considered to measure availability, and how to account for individual variation. In this review we aim to address all these issues, as well as to highlight weak features of this modelling approach that should be developed by further research. Finally, we suggest that SSFs could be integrated with state-space models to classify behavioural states when estimating SSFs.

Phylogenetic congruence of lichenised fungi and algae is affected by spatial scale and taxonomic diversity.

PubMed

Buckley, Hannah L; Rafat, Arash; Ridden, Johnathon D; Cruickshank, Robert H; Ridgway, Hayley J; Paterson, Adrian M

2014-01-01

The role of species' interactions in structuring biological communities remains unclear. Mutualistic symbioses, involving close positive interactions between two distinct organismal lineages, provide an excellent means to explore the roles of both evolutionary and ecological processes in determining how positive interactions affect community structure. In this study, we investigate patterns of co-diversification between fungi and algae for a range of New Zealand lichens at the community, genus, and species levels and explore explanations for possible patterns related to spatial scale and pattern, taxonomic diversity of the lichens considered, and the level sampling replication. We assembled six independent datasets to compare patterns in phylogenetic congruence with varied spatial extent of sampling, taxonomic diversity and level of specimen replication. For each dataset, we used the DNA sequences from the ITS regions of both the fungal and algal genomes from lichen specimens to produce genetic distance matrices. Phylogenetic congruence between fungi and algae was quantified using distance-based redundancy analysis and we used geographic distance matrices in Moran's eigenvector mapping and variance partitioning to evaluate the effects of spatial variation on the quantification of phylogenetic congruence. Phylogenetic congruence was highly significant for all datasets and a large proportion of variance in both algal and fungal genetic distances was explained by partner genetic variation. Spatial variables, primarily at large and intermediate scales, were also important for explaining genetic diversity patterns in all datasets. Interestingly, spatial structuring was stronger for fungal than algal genetic variation. As the spatial extent of the samples increased, so too did the proportion of explained variation that was shared between the spatial variables and the partners' genetic variation. Different lichen taxa showed some variation in their phylogenetic congruence and spatial genetic patterns and where greater sample replication was used, the amount of variation explained by partner genetic variation increased. Our results suggest that the phylogenetic congruence pattern, at least at small spatial scales, is likely due to reciprocal co-adaptation or co-dispersal. However, the detection of these patterns varies among different lichen taxa, across spatial scales and with different levels of sample replication. This work provides insight into the complexities faced in determining how evolutionary and ecological processes may interact to generate diversity in symbiotic association patterns at the population and community levels. Further, it highlights the critical importance of considering sample replication, taxonomic diversity and spatial scale in designing studies of co-diversification.

Group social rank is associated with performance on a spatial learning task.

PubMed

Langley, Ellis J G; van Horik, Jayden O; Whiteside, Mark A; Madden, Joah R

2018-02-01

Dominant individuals differ from subordinates in their performances on cognitive tasks across a suite of taxa. Previous studies often only consider dyadic relationships, rather than the more ecologically relevant social hierarchies or networks, hence failing to account for how dyadic relationships may be adjusted within larger social groups. We used a novel statistical method: randomized Elo-ratings, to infer the social hierarchy of 18 male pheasants, Phasianus colchicus , while in a captive, mixed-sex group with a linear hierarchy. We assayed individual learning performance of these males on a binary spatial discrimination task to investigate whether inter-individual variation in performance is associated with group social rank. Task performance improved with increasing trial number and was positively related to social rank, with higher ranking males showing greater levels of success. Motivation to participate in the task was not related to social rank or task performance, thus indicating that these rank-related differences are not a consequence of differences in motivation to complete the task. Our results provide important information about how variation in cognitive performance relates to an individual's social rank within a group. Whether the social environment causes differences in learning performance or instead, inherent differences in learning ability predetermine rank remains to be tested.

Linear mixed model for heritability estimation that explicitly addresses environmental variation.

PubMed

Heckerman, David; Gurdasani, Deepti; Kadie, Carl; Pomilla, Cristina; Carstensen, Tommy; Martin, Hilary; Ekoru, Kenneth; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Ssenyomo, Gerald; Kamali, Anatoli; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Widmer, Christian; Sandhu, Manjinder S

2016-07-05

The linear mixed model (LMM) is now routinely used to estimate heritability. Unfortunately, as we demonstrate, LMM estimates of heritability can be inflated when using a standard model. To help reduce this inflation, we used a more general LMM with two random effects-one based on genomic variants and one based on easily measured spatial location as a proxy for environmental effects. We investigated this approach with simulated data and with data from a Uganda cohort of 4,778 individuals for 34 phenotypes including anthropometric indices, blood factors, glycemic control, blood pressure, lipid tests, and liver function tests. For the genomic random effect, we used identity-by-descent estimates from accurately phased genome-wide data. For the environmental random effect, we constructed a covariance matrix based on a Gaussian radial basis function. Across the simulated and Ugandan data, narrow-sense heritability estimates were lower using the more general model. Thus, our approach addresses, in part, the issue of "missing heritability" in the sense that much of the heritability previously thought to be missing was fictional. Software is available at https://github.com/MicrosoftGenomics/FaST-LMM.

Fine scale variations of surface water chemistry in an ephemeral to perennial drainage network

Treesearch

Margaret A. Zimmer; Scott W. Bailey; Kevin J. McGuire; Thomas D. Bullen

2013-01-01

Although temporal variation in headwater stream chemistry has long been used to document baseline conditions and response to environmental drivers, less attention is paid to fine scale spatial variations that could yield clues to processes controlling stream water sources. We documented spatial and temporal variation in water composition in a headwater catchment (41 ha...

Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976-95

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, Paul H.; Bodtker, Karin; Cannon, Alex J.

2002-11-01

A previously reported analysis of rehabilitated monthly temperature and precipitation time series for several hundred stations across Canada showed generally spatially coherent patterns of variation between two decades (1976-85 and 1986-95). The present work expands that analysis to finer time scales and a greater number of stations. We demonstrate how the finer temporal resolution, at 5 day or 11 day intervals, increases the separation between clusters of recent variations in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. We also expand the analysis by increasing the number of stations from only rehabilitated monthly data sets to rehabilitated daily sets, then to approximately 1500 daily observation stations. This increases the spatial density of data and allows a finer spatial resolution of patterns between the two decades. We also examine the success of clustering partial records, i.e. sites where the data record is incomplete. The intent of this study was to be consistent with previous work and explore how greater temporal and spatial detail in the climate data affects the resolution of patterns of recent climate variations. The variations we report for temperature and precipitation are taking place at different temporal and spatial scales. Further, the spatial patterns are much broader than local climate regions and ecozones, indicating that the differences observed may be the result of variations in atmospheric circulation.

Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the parasite and its vector, but also socio-economic conditions, such as levels of urbanization, poverty and education, which impact human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for the modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Methods A statistical mixed model framework is proposed to model malaria risk at the district level in Malawi, using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases from July 2004 to June 2011. Several climatic, geographic and socio-economic factors thought to influence malaria incidence were tested in an exploratory model. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a generalized linear mixed model was adopted, which included structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Using a stepwise model selection procedure, several explanatory variables were identified to have significant associations with malaria including climatic, cartographic and socio-economic data. Once intervention variations, unobserved confounding factors and spatial correlation were considered in a Bayesian framework, a final model emerged with statistically significant predictor variables limited to average precipitation (quadratic relation) and average temperature during the three months previous to the month of interest. Conclusions When modelling malaria risk in Malawi it is important to account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and correlation between districts. Once observed and unobserved confounding factors are allowed for, precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

Weather-forced variations of Central and East Pacific ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. A.; Newman, M.; Shin, S.

2010-12-01

It has been suggested that a possible outcome of climate change is an increase in the occurrence of “Modoki” or central Pacific El Nino events relative to canonical eastern Pacific El Nino events, and that this change may already be occurring. Such a determination, however, is complicated by possible natural variations of the two types of events. How large a change in the relative occurrence can be expected from purely internal variability? To explore this question, a “patterns-based” red noise null hypothesis is constructed from 40 years of observed seasonally-averaged SST, 20 deg C thermocline depth, and surface zonal wind stress anomalies. Patterns-based (or multivariate) red noise differs from “local” (or univariate) red noise since it allows for non-local advective processes; for example, weather noise driving surface wind stress in one location to produce an ocean response in a different location. It is shown that natural random variations of the central Pacific to east Pacific El Nino occurrence ratio are large enough that they could account for all past observed differences as well as all differences found in the SRESA1B runs of all AR4 climate models. Additionally, the correlation between Nino3 and Nino4 SST indices over 30-yr periods can range between 0.7 and 0.9 simply due to such variations in noise, with apparent multidecadal “trends” during which the value increases or decreases. Further analysis shows the different spatial patterns of “noise” (i.e., random weather forcing) that can lead to the development of central vs. eastern Pacific ENSO events or various combinations thereof.

Two spatial light modulator system for laboratory simulation of random beam propagation in random media.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Toselli, Italo; Korotkova, Olga

2016-02-10

An optical system consisting of a laser source and two independent consecutive phase-only spatial light modulators (SLMs) is shown to accurately simulate a generated random beam (first SLM) after interaction with a stationary random medium (second SLM). To illustrate the range of possibilities, a recently introduced class of random optical frames is examined on propagation in free space and several weak turbulent channels with Kolmogorov and non-Kolmogorov statistics.

A space-time multiscale modelling of Earth's gravity field variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuo; Panet, Isabelle; Ramillien, Guillaume; Guilloux, Frédéric

2017-04-01

The mass distribution within the Earth varies over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, generating variations in the Earth's gravity field in space and time. These variations are monitored by satellites as the GRACE mission, with a 400 km spatial resolution and 10 days to 1 month temporal resolution. They are expressed in the form of gravity field models, often with a fixed spatial or temporal resolution. The analysis of these models allows us to study the mass transfers within the Earth system. Here, we have developed space-time multi-scale models of the gravity field, in order to optimize the estimation of gravity signals resulting from local processes at different spatial and temporal scales, and to adapt the time resolution of the model to its spatial resolution according to the satellites sampling. For that, we first build a 4D wavelet family combining spatial Poisson wavelets with temporal Haar wavelets. Then, we set-up a regularized inversion of inter-satellites gravity potential differences in a bayesian framework, to estimate the model parameters. To build the prior, we develop a spectral analysis, localized in time and space, of geophysical models of mass transport and associated gravity variations. Finally, we test our approach to the reconstruction of space-time variations of the gravity field due to hydrology. We first consider a global distribution of observations along the orbit, from a simplified synthetic hydrology signal comprising only annual variations at large spatial scales. Then, we consider a regional distribution of observations in Africa, and a larger number of spatial and temporal scales. We test the influence of an imperfect prior and discuss our results.

Analysis of spatial variations in the effectiveness of graduated driver's licensing (GDL) program in the state of Michigan.

PubMed

Chen, Yu; Berrocal, Veronica J; Bingham, C Raymond; Song, Peter X K

2014-04-01

Injury resulting from motor vehicle crashes is the leading cause of death among teenagers in the US. Few programs or policies have been found to be effective in reducing the risk of fatal car crashes for young novice drivers. One effective policy that has been widely implemented is Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL). Published articles have mostly reported on the temporal effectiveness of GDL in the US. This article reports on the development of spatial statistical modeling approaches to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of GDL policy across eighty-three counties in the state of Michigan. Data were gathered from several publicly available databases, including the US Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and US Department of Agriculture. To account for spatial dependence among crash counts from adjacent counties we invoke spatial random effects, which we provide with a Conditionally AutoRegressive (CAR) prior. Our analysis confirms previous findings that GDL in Michigan is an effective policy that significantly reduces the risk of fatal car crashes among novice teenage drivers. In addition, it indicates that rurality is an important contextual variable associated with spatial differences in GDL effectiveness across the state of Michigan. Finally, our findings provide information that can be used to strengthen GDL policy and its implementation to further enhance teenage-driver safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SPATIAL VARIATION OF THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THE URBAN BOUNDARY LAYER

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial variation of the nocturnal urban boundary layer structure and the time variation of the mixing height, the nocturnal inversion top and strength after sunrise are presented for urban sites located upwind, downwind, and near the center of the heat island and for upwind ...

Spatial variations in a.c. susceptibility and microstructure for the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconductor and their correlation with room-temperature ultrasonic measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, Don J.; Hepp, Aloysius F.; Deguire, Mark R.; Dolhert, Leonard E.

1991-01-01

The spatial (within-sample) uniformity of superconducting behavior and microstructure in YBa2Cu30(7-x) specimens over the pore fraction range of 0.10 to 0.25 was examined. The viability of using a room-temperature, nondestructive characterization method (ultrasonic velocity imaging) to predict spatial variability was determined. Spatial variations in superconductor properties were observed for specimens containing 0.10 pore fraction. An ultrasonic velocity image constructed from measurements at 1 mm increments across one such specimen revealed microstructural variation between edge and center locations that correlated with variations in alternating-current shielding and loss behavior. Optical quantitative image analysis on sample cross-sections revealed pore fraction to be the varying microstructural feature.

Spatial variations in ac susceptibility and microstructure for the YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconductor and their correlation with room-temperature ultrasonic measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, Don J.; Deguire, Mark R.; Dolhert, Leonard E.; Hepp, Aloysius F.

1991-01-01

The spatial (within-sample) uniformity of superconducting behavior and microstructure in YBa2Cu3O(7-x) specimens over the pore fraction range of 0.10 to 0.25 was examined. The viability of using a room-temperature, nondestructive characterization method (ultrasonic velocity imaging) to predict spatial variability was determined. Spatial variations in superconductor properties were observed for specimens containing 0.10 pore fraction. An ultrasonic velocity image constructed from measurements at 1 mm increments across one such specimen revealed microstructural variation between edge and center locations that correlated with variations in alternating-current shielding and loss behavior. Optical quantitative image analysis on sample cross-sections revealed pore fraction to be the varying microstructural feature.

The relationship between observational scale and explained variance in benthic communities

PubMed Central

Flood, Roger D.; Frisk, Michael G.; Garza, Corey D.; Lopez, Glenn R.; Maher, Nicole P.

2018-01-01

This study addresses the impact of spatial scale on explaining variance in benthic communities. In particular, the analysis estimated the fraction of community variation that occurred at a spatial scale smaller than the sampling interval (i.e., the geographic distance between samples). This estimate is important because it sets a limit on the amount of community variation that can be explained based on the spatial configuration of a study area and sampling design. Six benthic data sets were examined that consisted of faunal abundances, common environmental variables (water depth, grain size, and surficial percent cover), and sonar backscatter treated as a habitat proxy (categorical acoustic provinces). Redundancy analysis was coupled with spatial variograms generated by multiscale ordination to quantify the explained and residual variance at different spatial scales and within and between acoustic provinces. The amount of community variation below the sampling interval of the surveys (< 100 m) was estimated to be 36–59% of the total. Once adjusted for this small-scale variation, > 71% of the remaining variance was explained by the environmental and province variables. Furthermore, these variables effectively explained the spatial structure present in the infaunal community. Overall, no scale problems remained to compromise inferences, and unexplained infaunal community variation had no apparent spatial structure within the observational scale of the surveys (> 100 m), although small-scale gradients (< 100 m) below the observational scale may be present. PMID:29324746

Geographic and socioeconomic variation of sodium and potassium intake in Italy: results from the MINISAL-GIRCSI programme

PubMed Central

Cappuccio, Francesco P; Ji, Chen; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Palmieri, Luigi; Ippolito, Renato; Vanuzzo, Diego; Giampaoli, Simona; Strazzullo, Pasquale

2015-01-01

Objectives To assess geographic and socioeconomic gradients in sodium and potassium intake in Italy. Setting Cross-sectional survey in Italy. Participants 3857 men and women, aged 39–79 years, randomly sampled in 20 regions (as part of a National cardiovascular survey of 8714 men and women). Primary outcome measures Participants’ dietary sodium and potassium intakes were measured by 24 h urinary sodium and potassium excretions. 2 indicators measured socioeconomic status: education and occupation. Bayesian geoadditive models were used to assess spatial and socioeconomic patterns of sodium and potassium intakes accounting for sociodemographic, anthropometric and behavioural confounders. Results There was a significant north-south pattern of sodium excretion in Italy. Participants living in southern Italy (eg, Calabria, Basilicata and Puglia >180 mmol/24 h) had a significantly higher sodium excretion than elsewhere (eg, Val d'Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige <140 mmol/24 h; p<0.001). There was a linear association between occupation and sodium excretion (p<0.001). When compared with occupation I (top managerial), occupations III and IV had a 6.5% higher sodium excretion (coefficients: 0.054 (90% credible levels 0.014, 0.093) and 0.064 (0.024, 0.104), respectively). A similar relationship was found between educational attainment and sodium excretion (p<0.0001). When compared with those with a university degree, participants with primary and junior school education had a 5.9% higher urinary sodium (coefficients: 0.074 (0.031, 0.116) and 0.038 (0.001, 0.075), respectively). The socioeconomic gradient explained the spatial variation. Potassium excretion was higher in central regions and in some southern regions. Those in occupation V (low-skill workers) showed a 3% lower potassium excretion compared with those in occupation I. However, the socioeconomic gradient only partially explained the spatial variation. Conclusions Salt intake in Italy is significantly higher in less advantaged social groups. This gradient is independent of confounders and explains the geographical variation. PMID:26359282

Geographic and socioeconomic variation of sodium and potassium intake in Italy: results from the MINISAL-GIRCSI programme.

PubMed

Cappuccio, Francesco P; Ji, Chen; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Palmieri, Luigi; Ippolito, Renato; Vanuzzo, Diego; Giampaoli, Simona; Strazzullo, Pasquale

2015-09-10

To assess geographic and socioeconomic gradients in sodium and potassium intake in Italy. Cross-sectional survey in Italy. 3857 men and women, aged 39-79 years, randomly sampled in 20 regions (as part of a National cardiovascular survey of 8714 men and women). Participants' dietary sodium and potassium intakes were measured by 24 h urinary sodium and potassium excretions. 2 indicators measured socioeconomic status: education and occupation. Bayesian geoadditive models were used to assess spatial and socioeconomic patterns of sodium and potassium intakes accounting for sociodemographic, anthropometric and behavioural confounders. There was a significant north-south pattern of sodium excretion in Italy. Participants living in southern Italy (eg, Calabria, Basilicata and Puglia >180 mmol/24 h) had a significantly higher sodium excretion than elsewhere (eg, Val d'Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige <140 mmol/24 h; p<0.001). There was a linear association between occupation and sodium excretion (p<0.001). When compared with occupation I (top managerial), occupations III and IV had a 6.5% higher sodium excretion (coefficients: 0.054 (90% credible levels 0.014, 0.093) and 0.064 (0.024, 0.104), respectively). A similar relationship was found between educational attainment and sodium excretion (p<0.0001). When compared with those with a university degree, participants with primary and junior school education had a 5.9% higher urinary sodium (coefficients: 0.074 (0.031, 0.116) and 0.038 (0.001, 0.075), respectively). The socioeconomic gradient explained the spatial variation. Potassium excretion was higher in central regions and in some southern regions. Those in occupation V (low-skill workers) showed a 3% lower potassium excretion compared with those in occupation I. However, the socioeconomic gradient only partially explained the spatial variation. Salt intake in Italy is significantly higher in less advantaged social groups. This gradient is independent of confounders and explains the geographical variation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Temporal-Spatial Variation and Controls of Soil Respiration in Different Primary Succession Stages on Glacier Forehead in Gongga Mountain, China

PubMed Central

Luo, Ji; Chen, Youchao; Wu, Yanhong; Shi, Peili; She, Jia; Zhou, Peng

2012-01-01

Soil respiration (SR) is an important process in the global carbon cycle. It is difficult to estimate SR emission accurately because of its temporal and spatial variability. Primary forest succession on Glacier forehead provides the ideal environment for examining the temporal-spatial variation and controlling factors of SR. However, relevant studies on SR are relatively scarce, and variations, as well as controlling factors, remain uncertain in this kind of region. In this study, we used a static chamber system to measure SR in six sites which represent different stages of forest succession on forehead of a temperate glacier in Gongga Mountain, China. Our results showed that there was substantial temporal (coefficient of variation (CV) ranged from 39.3% to 73.9%) and spatial (CV ranged from 12.3% to 88.6%) variation in SR. Soil temperature (ST) at 5 cm depth was the major controlling factor of temporal variation in all six sites. Spatial variation in SR was mainly caused by differences in plant biomass and Total N among the six sites. Moreover, soil moisture (SM), microbial biomass carbon (MBC), soil organic carbon (SOC), pH and bulk density could influence SR by directly or indirectly affecting plant biomass and Total N. Q10 values (ranged from 2.1 to 4.7) increased along the forest succession, and the mean value (3.3) was larger than that of temperate ecosystems, which indicated a general tendency towards higher-Q10 in colder ecosystems than in warmer ecosystems. Our findings provided valuable information for understanding temporal-spatial variation and controlling factors of SR. PMID:22879950

[Spatial and temporal dynamics of the weed community in the Zoysia matrella lawn].

PubMed

Liu, Jia-Qi; Li, You-Han; Zeng, Ying; Xie, Xin-Ming

2014-02-01

The heterogeneity of species composition is one of the main attributes in weed community dynamics. Based on species frequency and power law, this paper studied the variations of weed community species composition and spatial heterogeneity in a Zoysia matrella lawn in Guangzhou at different time. The results showed that there were 43 weed species belonging to 19 families in the Z. matrella lawn from 2007 to 2009, in which Gramineae, Compositae, Cyperaceae and Rubiaceae had a comparative advantage. Perennial weeds accounted for the largest proportion of weeds and increased gradually in the three years. Weed communities distributed in higher heterogeneity than in a random model. Dominant weeds varied with season and displayed regularity in the order of 'dicotyledon-monocotyledon-dicotyledon weeds' and 'perennial-annual-perennial weeds'. The spatial heterogeneity of weed community in Z. matrella lawn was higher in summer than in winter. The diversity and evenness of weed community were higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The number of weed species with high heterogeneity in summer was higher than in the other seasons. The spatial heterogeneity and diversity of weed community had no significant change in the three years, while the evenness of weed community had the tendency to decline gradually.

Circulation controls of the spatial structure of maximum daily precipitation over Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stach, Alfred

2015-04-01

Among forecasts made on the basis of global and regional climatic models is one of a high probability of an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. Learning the regularities underlying the recurrence and spatial extent of extreme precipitation is obviously of great importance, both economic and social. The main goal of the study was to analyse regularities underlying spatial and temporal variations in monthly Maximum Daily Precipitation Totals (MDPTs) observed in Poland over the years 1956-1980. These data are specific because apart from being spatially discontinuous, which is typical of precipitation, they are also non-synchronic. The main aim of the study was accomplished via several detailed goals: • identification and typology of the spatial structure of monthly MDPTs, • determination of the character and probable origin of events generating MDPTs, and • quantitative assessment of the contribution of the particular events to the overall MDPT figures. The analysis of the spatial structure of MDPTs was based on 300 models of spatial structure, one for each of the analysed sets of monthly MDPTs. The models were built on the basis of empirical anisotropic semivariograms of normalised data. In spite of their spatial discontinuity and asynchronicity, the MDPT data from Poland display marked regularities in their spatial pattern that yield readily to mathematical modelling. The MDPT field in Poland is usually the sum of the outcomes of three types of processes operating at various spatial scales: local (<10-20 km), regional (50-150 km), and supra-regional (>200 km). The spatial scales are probably connected with a convective/ orographic, a frontal and a 'planetary waves' genesis of high precipitation. Their contributions are highly variable. Generally predominant, however, are high daily precipitation totals with a spatial extent of 50 to 150 km connected with mesoscale phenomena and the migration of atmospheric fronts (35-38%). The spatial extent of areas of high local-scale precipitation usually varies at random, especially in the warm season. At supra-local scales, structures of repetitive size predominate. Eight types of anisotropic structures of monthly MDPTs were distinguished. To identify them, an analysis was made of semivariance surface similarities. The types differ not only in the level and direction of anisotropy, but also in the number and type of elementary components, which is evidence of genetic differences in precipitation. Their appearance shows a significant seasonal variability, so the most probable supposition was that temporal variations in the MDPT pattern were connected with circulation conditions: the type and direction of inflow of air masses. This hypothesis was validated by testing differences in the frequency of occurrence of Grosswetterlagen circulation situations in the months belonging to the distinguished types of the spatial MDPT pattern.

Modelling individual tree height to crown base of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

PubMed Central

Jansa, Václav

2017-01-01

Height to crown base (HCB) of a tree is an important variable often included as a predictor in various forest models that serve as the fundamental tools for decision-making in forestry. We developed spatially explicit and spatially inexplicit mixed-effects HCB models using measurements from a total 19,404 trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) on the permanent sample plots that are located across the Czech Republic. Variables describing site quality, stand density or competition, and species mixing effects were included into the HCB model with use of dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameters than a subject tree (BAL- spatially inexplicit measure) or Hegyi’s competition index (HCI—spatially explicit measure), and basal area proportion of a species of interest (BAPOR), respectively. The parameters describing sample plot-level random effects were included into the HCB model by applying the mixed-effects modelling approach. Among several functional forms evaluated, the logistic function was found most suited to our data. The HCB model for Norway spruce was tested against the data originated from different inventory designs, but model for European beech was tested using partitioned dataset (a part of the main dataset). The variance heteroscedasticity in the residuals was substantially reduced through inclusion of a power variance function into the HCB model. The results showed that spatially explicit model described significantly a larger part of the HCB variations [R2adj = 0.86 (spruce), 0.85 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [R2adj = 0.84 (spruce), 0.83 (beech)]. The HCB increased with increasing competitive interactions described by tree-centered competition measure: BAL or HCI, and species mixing effects described by BAPOR. A test of the mixed-effects HCB model with the random effects estimated using at least four trees per sample plot in the validation data confirmed that the model was precise enough for the prediction of HCB for a range of site quality, tree size, stand density, and stand structure. We therefore recommend measuring of HCB on four randomly selected trees of a species of interest on each sample plot for localizing the mixed-effects model and predicting HCB of the remaining trees on the plot. Growth simulations can be made from the data that lack the values for either crown ratio or HCB using the HCB models. PMID:29049391

Resource availability, matrix quality, microclimate, and spatial pattern as predictors of patch use by the Karner blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grundel, R.; Pavlovic, N.B.

2007-01-01

Determination of which aspects of habitat quality and habitat spatial arrangement best account for variation in a species’ distribution can guide management for organisms such as the Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa samuelis), a federally endangered subspecies inhabiting savannas of Midwest and Eastern United States. We examined the extent to which three sets of predictors, (1) larval host plant (Lupinus perennis, wild lupine) availability, (2) characteristics of the matrix surrounding host plant patches, and (3) factors affecting a patch’s thermal environment, accounted for variation in lupine patch use by Karner blues at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Indiana and Fort McCoy, Wisconsin, USA. Each predictor set accounted for 7–13% of variation in patch occupancy by Karner blues at both sites and in larval feeding activity among patches at Indiana Dunes. Patch area, an indicator of host plant availability, was an exception, accounting for 30% of variation in patch occupancy at Indiana Dunes. Spatially structured patterns of patch use across the landscape accounted for 9–16% of variation in patch use and explained more variation in larval feeding activity than did spatial autocorrelation between neighboring patches. Because of this broader spatial trend across sites, a given management action may be more effective in promoting patch use in some portions of the landscape than in others. Spatial trend, resource availability, matrix quality, and microclimate, in general, accounted for similar amounts of variation in patch use and each should be incorporated into habitat management planning for the Karner blue butterfly.

Spatial versus sequential correlations for random access coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakoli, Armin; Marques, Breno; Pawłowski, Marcin; Bourennane, Mohamed

2016-03-01

Random access codes are important for a wide range of applications in quantum information. However, their implementation with quantum theory can be made in two very different ways: (i) by distributing data with strong spatial correlations violating a Bell inequality or (ii) using quantum communication channels to create stronger-than-classical sequential correlations between state preparation and measurement outcome. Here we study this duality of the quantum realization. We present a family of Bell inequalities tailored to the task at hand and study their quantum violations. Remarkably, we show that the use of spatial and sequential quantum correlations imposes different limitations on the performance of quantum random access codes: Sequential correlations can outperform spatial correlations. We discuss the physics behind the observed discrepancy between spatial and sequential quantum correlations.

Moderate climate signature in cranial anatomy of late holocene human populations from Southern South America.

PubMed

Paula Menéndez, Lumila

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the association between cranial variation and climate in order to discuss their role during the diversification of southern South American populations. Therefore, the specific objectives are: (1) to explore the spatial pattern of cranial variation with regard to the climatic diversity of the region, and (2) to evaluate the differential impact that the climatic factors may have had on the shape and size of the diverse cranial structures studied. The variation in shape and size of 361 crania was studied, registering 62 3D landmarks that capture shape and size variation in the face, cranial vault, and base. Mean, minimum, and maximum annual temperature, as well as mean annual precipitation, but also diet and altitude, were matched for each population sample. A PCA, as well as spatial statistical techniques, including kriging, regression, and multimodel inference were employed. The facial skeleton size presents a latitudinal pattern which is partially associated with temperature diversity. Both diet and altitude are the variables that mainly explain the skull shape variation, although mean annual temperature also plays a role. The association between climate factors and cranial variation is low to moderate, mean annual temperature explains almost 40% of the entire skull, facial skeleton and cranial vault shape variation, while annual precipitation and minimum annual temperature only contribute to the morphological variation when considered together with maximum annual temperature. The cranial base is the structure less associated with climate diversity. These results suggest that climate factors may have had a partial impact on the facial and vault shape, and therefore contributed moderately to the diversification of southern South American populations, while diet and altitude might have had a stronger impact. Therefore, cranial variation at the southern cone has been shaped both by random and nonrandom factors. Particularly, the influence of climate on skull shape has probably been the result of directional selection. This study supports that, although cranial vault is the cranial structure more associated to mean annual temperature, the impact of climate signature on morphology decreases when populations from extreme cold environments are excluded from the analysis. Additionally, it shows that the extent of the geographical scales analyzed, as well as differential sampling may lead to different results regarding the role of ecological factors and evolutionary processes on cranial morphology. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Research on the optimization of air quality monitoring station layout based on spatial grid statistical analysis method.

PubMed

Li, Tianxin; Zhou, Xing Chen; Ikhumhen, Harrison Odion; Difei, An

2018-05-01

In recent years, with the significant increase in urban development, it has become necessary to optimize the current air monitoring stations to reflect the quality of air in the environment. Highlighting the spatial representation of some air monitoring stations using Beijing's regional air monitoring station data from 2012 to 2014, the monthly mean particulate matter concentration (PM10) in the region was calculated and through the IDW interpolation method and spatial grid statistical method using GIS, the spatial distribution of PM10 concentration in the whole region was deduced. The spatial distribution variation of districts in Beijing using the gridding model was performed, and through the 3-year spatial analysis, PM10 concentration data including the variation and spatial overlay (1.5 km × 1.5 km cell resolution grid), the spatial distribution result obtained showed that the total PM10 concentration frequency variation exceeded the standard. It is very important to optimize the layout of the existing air monitoring stations by combining the concentration distribution of air pollutants with the spatial region using GIS.

Finding big shots: small-area mapping and spatial modelling of obesity among Swiss male conscripts.

PubMed

Panczak, Radoslaw; Held, Leonhard; Moser, André; Jones, Philip A; Rühli, Frank J; Staub, Kaspar

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, as in other developed countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased substantially since the early 1990s. Most of the analyses so far have been based on sporadic surveys or self-reported data and did not offer potential for small-area analyses. The goal of this study was to investigate spatial variation and determinants of obesity among young Swiss men using recent conscription data. A complete, anonymized dataset of conscription records for the 2010-2012 period were provided by Swiss Armed Forces. We used a series of Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models to investigate the spatial pattern of obesity across 3,187 postcodes, varying them by type of random effects (spatially unstructured and structured), level of adjustment by individual (age and professional status) and area-based [urbanicity and index of socio-economic position (SEP)] characteristics. The analysed dataset consisted of 100,919 conscripts, out of which 5,892 (5.8 %) were obese. Crude obesity prevalence increased with age among conscripts of lower individual and area-based SEP and varied greatly over postcodes. Best model's estimates of adjusted odds ratios of obesity on postcode level ranged from 0.61 to 1.93 and showed a strong spatial pattern of obesity risk across the country. Odds ratios above 1 concentrated in central and north Switzerland. Smaller pockets of elevated obesity risk also emerged around cities of Geneva, Fribourg and Lausanne. Lower estimates were observed in North-East and East as well as south of the Alps. Importantly, small regional outliers were observed and patterning did not follow administrative boundaries. Similarly as with crude obesity prevalence, the best fitting model confirmed increasing risk of obesity with age and among conscripts of lower professional status. The risk decreased with higher area-based SEP and, to a lesser degree - in rural areas. In Switzerland, there is a substantial spatial variation in obesity risk among young Swiss men. Small-area estimates of obesity risk derived from conscripts records contribute to its understanding and could be used to design further studies and interventions.

Spatiotemporal analysis of Quaternary normal faults in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davarpanah, A.; Babaie, H. A.; Reed, P.

2010-12-01

The mid-Tertiary Basin-and-Range extensional tectonic event developed most of the normal faults that bound the ranges in the northern Rocky Mountains within Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. The interaction of the thermally induced stress field of the Yellowstone hot spot with the existing Basin-and-Range fault blocks, during the last 15 my, has produced a new, spatially and temporally variable system of normal faults in these areas. The orientation and spatial distribution of the trace of these hot-spot induced normal faults, relative to earlier Basin-and-Range faults, have significant implications for the effect of the temporally varying and spatially propagating thermal dome on the growth of new hot spot related normal faults and reactivation of existing Basin-and-Range faults. Digitally enhanced LANDSAT 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) bands, with spatial resolution of 30 m, combined with analytical GIS and geological techniques helped in determining and analyzing the lineaments and traces of the Quaternary, thermally-induced normal faults in the study area. Applying the color composite (CC) image enhancement technique, the combination of bands 3, 2 and 1 of the ETM+ and TM images was chosen as the best statistical choice to create a color composite for lineament identification. The spatiotemporal analysis of the Quaternary normal faults produces significant information on the structural style, timing, spatial variation, spatial density, and frequency of the faults. The seismic Quaternary normal faults, in the whole study area, are divided, based on their age, into four specific sets, which from oldest to youngest include: Quaternary (>1.6 Ma), middle and late Quaternary (>750 ka), latest Quaternary (>15 ka), and the last 150 years. A density map for the Quaternary faults reveals that most active faults are near the current Yellowstone National Park area (YNP), where most seismically active faults, in the past 1.6 my, are located. The GIS based autocorrelation method, applied to the trace orientation, length, frequency, and spatial distribution for each age-defined fault set, revealed spatial homogeneity for each specific set. The results of the method of Moran`sI and Geary`s C show no spatial autocorrelation among the trend of the fault traces and their location. Our results suggest that while lineaments of similar age define a clustered pattern in each domain, the overall distribution pattern of lineaments with different ages seems to be non-uniform (random). The directional distribution analysis reveals a distinct range of variation for fault traces of different ages (i.e., some displaying ellipsis behavior). Among the Quaternary normal fault sets, the youngest lineament set (i.e., last 150 years) defines the greatest ellipticity (eccentricity) and the least lineaments distribution variation. The frequency rose diagram for the entire Quaternary normal faults, shows four major modes (around 360o, 330o, 300o, and 270o), and two minor modes (around 235 and 205).

Spatial and seasonal variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Haihe Plain, China.

PubMed

Wang, Rong; Cao, Hongying; Li, Wei; Wang, Wei; Wang, Wentao; Zhang, Liwen; Liu, Jiumeng; Ouyang, Huiling; Tao, Shu

2011-05-01

A dynamic fugacity model was developed to simulate the spatial and seasonal variations of PAHs in Haihe Plain, China. The calculated and measured concentrations exhibited good consistency in magnitude with deviations within a factor of 4 in air and 2 in soil. The spatial distributions of PAHs in air were mainly controlled by emission while the seasonal variations were dominated by emission and gas-particle partition. In soil, the spatial distributions of PAHs were controlled by the soil organic carbon content while the seasonal variations were insignificant. The severest soil contamination was observed in Shanxi and followed by the southwest of Hebei province. Transfer fluxes of total PAHs between air and soil were calculated. The spatial distribution of air-to-soil flux was closely related to the landcover while the soil-to-air flux changed with soil organic matter content. Monte Carlo simulation was done to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimated results in air. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of oil spills on marine fish: Implications of spatial variation in natural mortality.

PubMed

Langangen, Ø; Olsen, E; Stige, L C; Ohlberger, J; Yaragina, N A; Vikebø, F B; Bogstad, B; Stenseth, N C; Hjermann, D Ø

2017-06-15

The effects of oil spills on marine biological systems are of great concern, especially in regions with high biological production of harvested resources such as in the Northeastern Atlantic. The scientific studies of the impact of oil spills on fish stocks tend to ignore that spatial patterns of natural mortality may influence the magnitude of the impact over time. Here, we first illustrate how spatial variation in natural mortality may affect the population impact by considering a thought experiment. Second, we consider an empirically based example of Northeast Arctic cod to extend the concept to a realistic setting. Finally, we present a scenario-based investigation of how the degree of spatial variation in natural mortality affects the impact over a gradient of oil spill sizes. Including the effects of spatial variations in natural mortality tends to widen the impact distribution, hence increasing the probability of both high and low impact events. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Surface plasmon enhanced cell microscopy with blocked random spatial activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Taehwang; Oh, Youngjin; Lee, Wonju; Yang, Heejin; Kim, Donghyun

2016-03-01

We present surface plasmon enhanced fluorescence microscopy with random spatial sampling using patterned block of silver nanoislands. Rigorous coupled wave analysis was performed to confirm near-field localization on nanoislands. Random nanoislands were fabricated in silver by temperature annealing. By analyzing random near-field distribution, average size of localized fields was found to be on the order of 135 nm. Randomly localized near-fields were used to spatially sample F-actin of J774 cells (mouse macrophage cell-line). Image deconvolution algorithm based on linear imaging theory was established for stochastic estimation of fluorescent molecular distribution. The alignment between near-field distribution and raw image was performed by the patterned block. The achieved resolution is dependent upon factors including the size of localized fields and estimated to be 100-150 nm.

Systems for controlling the intensity variations in a laser beam and for frequency conversion thereof

DOEpatents

Skupsky, S.; Craxton, R.S.; Soures, J.

1990-10-02

In order to control the intensity of a laser beam so that its intensity varies uniformly and provides uniform illumination of a target, such as a laser fusion target, a broad bandwidth laser pulse is spectrally dispersed spatially so that the frequency components thereof are spread apart. A disperser (grating) provides an output beam which varies spatially in wavelength in at least one direction transverse to the direction of propagation of the beam. Temporal spread (time delay) across the beam is corrected by using a phase delay device (a time delay compensation echelon). The dispersed beam may be amplified with laser amplifiers and frequency converted (doubled, tripled or quadrupled in frequency) with nonlinear optical elements (birefringent crystals). The spectral variation across the beam is compensated by varying the angle of incidence on one of the crystals with respect to the crystal optical axis utilizing a lens which diverges the beam. Another lens after the frequency converter may be used to recollimate the beam. The frequency converted beam is recombined so that portions of different frequency interfere and, unlike interference between waves of the same wavelength, there results an intensity pattern with rapid temporal oscillations which average out rapidly in time thereby producing uniform illumination on target. A distributed phase plate (also known as a random phase mask), through which the spectrally dispersed beam is passed and then focused on a target, is used to provide the interference pattern which becomes nearly modulation free and uniform in intensity in the direction of the spectral variation. 16 figs.

Systems for controlling the intensity variations in a laser beam and for frequency conversion thereof

DOEpatents

Skupsky, Stanley; Craxton, R. Stephen; Soures, John

1990-01-01

In order to control the intensity of a laser beam so that its intensity varies uniformly and provides uniform illumination of a target, such as a laser fusion target, a broad bandwidth laser pulse is spectrally dispersed spatially so that the frequency components thereof are spread apart. A disperser (grating) provides an output beam which varies spatially in wavelength in at least one direction transverse to the direction of propagation of the beam. Temporal spread (time delay) across the beam is corrected by using a phase delay device (a time delay compensation echelon). The dispersed beam may be amplified with laser amplifiers and frequency converted (doubled, tripled or quadrupled in frequency) with nonlinear optical elements (birefringent crystals). The spectral variation across the beam is compensated by varying the angle of incidence on one of the crystals with respect to the crystal optical axis utilizing a lens which diverges the beam. Another lens after the frequency converter may be used to recollimate the beam. The frequency converted beam is recombined so that portions of different frequency interfere and, unlike interference between waves of the same wavelength, there results an intensity pattern with rapid temoral oscillations which average out rapidly in time thereby producing uniform illumination on target. A distributed phase plate (also known as a random phase mask), through which the spectrally dispersed beam is passed and then focused on a target, is used to provide the interference pattern which becomes nearly modulation free and uniform in intensity in the direction of the spectral variation.

[Predictive model based multimetric index of macroinvertebrates for river health assessment].

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Yu, Hai Yan; Zhang, Ji Wei; Wang, Bei Xin; Chen, Qiu Wen

2017-06-18

Improving the stability of integrity of biotic index (IBI; i.e., multi-metric indices, MMI) across temporal and spatial scales is one of the most important issues in water ecosystem integrity bioassessment and water environment management. Using datasets of field-based macroinvertebrate and physicochemical variables and GIS-based natural predictors (e.g., geomorphology and climate) and land use variables collected at 227 river sites from 2004 to 2011 across the Zhejiang Province, China, we used random forests (RF) to adjust the effects of natural variations at temporal and spatial scales on macroinvertebrate metrics. We then developed natural variations adjusted (predictive) and unadjusted (null) MMIs and compared performance between them. The core me-trics selected for predictive and null MMIs were different from each other, and natural variations within core metrics in predictive MMI explained by RF models ranged between 11.4% and 61.2%. The predictive MMI was more precise and accurate, but less responsive and sensitive than null MMI. The multivariate nearest-neighbor test determined that 9 test sites and 1 most degraded site were flagged outside of the environmental space of the reference site network. We found that combination of predictive MMI developed by using predictive model and the nearest-neighbor test performed best and decreased risks of inferring type I (designating a water body as being in poor biological condition, when it was actually in good condition) and type II (designating a water body as being in good biological condition, when it was actually in poor condition) errors. Our results provided an effective method to improve the stability and performance of integrity of biotic index.

Primary Productivity and Precipitation-Use Efficiency in Temperate Grassland in the Loess Plateau of China

PubMed Central

Jia, Xiaoxu; Xie, Baoni; Shao, Ming’an; Zhao, Chunlei

2015-01-01

Clarifying spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of grasslands is critical for effective prediction of the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycle to future climate change. Though the combination use of remote sensing products and in situ ANPP measurements, we quantified the effects of climatic [mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD)], biotic [leaf area index (LAI)] and abiotic [slope gradient, aspect, soil water storage (SWS) and other soil physical properties] factors on the spatial variations in ANPP and PUE across different grassland types (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) in the Loess Plateau. Based on the study, ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland; suggesting that PUE increased with increasing MAP. Also PSD had a significant effect on ANPP and PUE; where more even PSD favored higher ANPP and PUE. Then MAP, more than PSD, explained spatial variations in typical steppe and desert steppe. However, PSD was the dominant driving factor of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe. This suggested that in terms of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe, change in PSD due to climate change was more important than that in total annual precipitation. LAI explained 78% of spatial PUE in the entire Loess Plateau temperate grassland. As such, LAI was the primary driving factor of spatial variations in PUE. Although the effect of SWS on ANPP and PUE was significant, it was nonetheless less than that of precipitation and vegetation. We therefore concluded that changes in vegetation structure and consequently in LAI and/or altered pattern of seasonal distribution of rainfall due to global climate change could significantly influence ecosystem carbon and water cycle in temperate grasslands. PMID:26295954

Primary Productivity and Precipitation-Use Efficiency in Temperate Grassland in the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Jia, Xiaoxu; Xie, Baoni; Shao, Ming'an; Zhao, Chunlei

2015-01-01

Clarifying spatial variations in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation-use efficiency (PUE) of grasslands is critical for effective prediction of the response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycle to future climate change. Though the combination use of remote sensing products and in situ ANPP measurements, we quantified the effects of climatic [mean annual precipitation (MAP) and precipitation seasonal distribution (PSD)], biotic [leaf area index (LAI)] and abiotic [slope gradient, aspect, soil water storage (SWS) and other soil physical properties] factors on the spatial variations in ANPP and PUE across different grassland types (i.e., meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) in the Loess Plateau. Based on the study, ANPP increased exponentially with MAP for the entire temperate grassland; suggesting that PUE increased with increasing MAP. Also PSD had a significant effect on ANPP and PUE; where more even PSD favored higher ANPP and PUE. Then MAP, more than PSD, explained spatial variations in typical steppe and desert steppe. However, PSD was the dominant driving factor of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe. This suggested that in terms of spatial variations in ANPP of meadow steppe, change in PSD due to climate change was more important than that in total annual precipitation. LAI explained 78% of spatial PUE in the entire Loess Plateau temperate grassland. As such, LAI was the primary driving factor of spatial variations in PUE. Although the effect of SWS on ANPP and PUE was significant, it was nonetheless less than that of precipitation and vegetation. We therefore concluded that changes in vegetation structure and consequently in LAI and/or altered pattern of seasonal distribution of rainfall due to global climate change could significantly influence ecosystem carbon and water cycle in temperate grasslands.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Temporal and spatial variations of the Chesapeake Bay plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzecki, E. P.

1981-01-01

Historical records and data obtained during the Superflux experiments are used to describe the temporal and spatial variations of the effluent waters of Chesapeake Bay. The alongshore extent of the plume resulting from variations of freshwater discharge into the Bay and the effects of wind are illustrated. Variations of the cross sectional configuration of the plume over portions of a tidal cycle and results of a rapid underway water sampling system are discussed.

Tumor evolution in space: the effects of competition colonization tradeoffs on tumor invasion dynamics.

PubMed

Orlando, Paul A; Gatenby, Robert A; Brown, Joel S

2013-01-01

We apply competition colonization tradeoff models to tumor growth and invasion dynamics to explore the hypothesis that varying selection forces will result in predictable phenotypic differences in cells at the tumor invasive front compared to those in the core. Spatially, ecologically, and evolutionarily explicit partial differential equation models of tumor growth confirm that spatial invasion produces selection pressure for motile phenotypes. The effects of the invasive phenotype on normal adjacent tissue determine the patterns of growth and phenotype distribution. If tumor cells do not destroy their environment, colonizer and competitive phenotypes coexist with the former localized at the invasion front and the latter, to the tumor interior. If tumors cells do destroy their environment, then cell motility is strongly selected resulting in accelerated invasion speed with time. Our results suggest that the widely observed genetic heterogeneity within cancers may not be the stochastic effect of random mutations. Rather, it may be the consequence of predictable variations in environmental selection forces and corresponding phenotypic adaptations.

Interfaces of Malignant and Immunologic Clonal Dynamics in Ovarian Cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Allen W; McPherson, Andrew; Milne, Katy; Kroeger, David R; Hamilton, Phineas T; Miranda, Alex; Funnell, Tyler; Little, Nicole; de Souza, Camila P E; Laan, Sonya; LeDoux, Stacey; Cochrane, Dawn R; Lim, Jamie L P; Yang, Winnie; Roth, Andrew; Smith, Maia A; Ho, Julie; Tse, Kane; Zeng, Thomas; Shlafman, Inna; Mayo, Michael R; Moore, Richard; Failmezger, Henrik; Heindl, Andreas; Wang, Yi Kan; Bashashati, Ali; Grewal, Diljot S; Brown, Scott D; Lai, Daniel; Wan, Adrian N C; Nielsen, Cydney B; Huebner, Curtis; Tessier-Cloutier, Basile; Anglesio, Michael S; Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Yuan, Yinyin; Wasserman, Wyeth W; Gilks, C Blake; Karnezis, Anthony N; Aparicio, Samuel; McAlpine, Jessica N; Huntsman, David G; Holt, Robert A; Nelson, Brad H; Shah, Sohrab P

2018-05-07

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) exhibits extensive malignant clonal diversity with widespread but non-random patterns of disease dissemination. We investigated whether local immune microenvironment factors shape tumor progression properties at the interface of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and cancer cells. Through multi-region study of 212 samples from 38 patients with whole-genome sequencing, immunohistochemistry, histologic image analysis, gene expression profiling, and T and B cell receptor sequencing, we identified three immunologic subtypes across samples and extensive within-patient diversity. Epithelial CD8+ TILs negatively associated with malignant diversity, reflecting immunological pruning of tumor clones inferred by neoantigen depletion, HLA I loss of heterozygosity, and spatial tracking between T cell and tumor clones. In addition, combinatorial prognostic effects of mutational processes and immune properties were observed, illuminating how specific genomic aberration types associate with immune response and impact survival. We conclude that within-patient spatial immune microenvironment variation shapes intraperitoneal malignant spread, provoking new evolutionary perspectives on HGSC clonal dispersion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Homogenization analysis of invasion dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes with differential bias and motility.

PubMed

Yurk, Brian P

2018-07-01

Animal movement behaviors vary spatially in response to environmental heterogeneity. An important problem in spatial ecology is to determine how large-scale population growth and dispersal patterns emerge within highly variable landscapes. We apply the method of homogenization to study the large-scale behavior of a reaction-diffusion-advection model of population growth and dispersal. Our model includes small-scale variation in the directed and random components of movement and growth rates, as well as large-scale drift. Using the homogenized model we derive simple approximate formulas for persistence conditions and asymptotic invasion speeds, which are interpreted in terms of residence index. The homogenization results show good agreement with numerical solutions for environments with a high degree of fragmentation, both with and without periodicity at the fast scale. The simplicity of the formulas, and their connection to residence index make them appealing for studying the large-scale effects of a variety of small-scale movement behaviors.

Tumor Evolution in Space: The Effects of Competition Colonization Tradeoffs on Tumor Invasion Dynamics

PubMed Central

Orlando, Paul A.; Gatenby, Robert A.; Brown, Joel S.

2013-01-01

We apply competition colonization tradeoff models to tumor growth and invasion dynamics to explore the hypothesis that varying selection forces will result in predictable phenotypic differences in cells at the tumor invasive front compared to those in the core. Spatially, ecologically, and evolutionarily explicit partial differential equation models of tumor growth confirm that spatial invasion produces selection pressure for motile phenotypes. The effects of the invasive phenotype on normal adjacent tissue determine the patterns of growth and phenotype distribution. If tumor cells do not destroy their environment, colonizer and competitive phenotypes coexist with the former localized at the invasion front and the latter, to the tumor interior. If tumors cells do destroy their environment, then cell motility is strongly selected resulting in accelerated invasion speed with time. Our results suggest that the widely observed genetic heterogeneity within cancers may not be the stochastic effect of random mutations. Rather, it may be the consequence of predictable variations in environmental selection forces and corresponding phenotypic adaptations. PMID:23508890

Data-driven sensitivity inference for Thomson scattering electron density measurement systems.

PubMed

Fujii, Keisuke; Yamada, Ichihiro; Hasuo, Masahiro

2017-01-01

We developed a method to infer the calibration parameters of multichannel measurement systems, such as channel variations of sensitivity and noise amplitude, from experimental data. We regard such uncertainties of the calibration parameters as dependent noise. The statistical properties of the dependent noise and that of the latent functions were modeled and implemented in the Gaussian process kernel. Based on their statistical difference, both parameters were inferred from the data. We applied this method to the electron density measurement system by Thomson scattering for the Large Helical Device plasma, which is equipped with 141 spatial channels. Based on the 210 sets of experimental data, we evaluated the correction factor of the sensitivity and noise amplitude for each channel. The correction factor varies by ≈10%, and the random noise amplitude is ≈2%, i.e., the measurement accuracy increases by a factor of 5 after this sensitivity correction. The certainty improvement in the spatial derivative inference was demonstrated.

WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

2017-06-01

Stochasticity can play an important role in the dynamics of biologically relevant populations. These span a broad range of scales: from intra-cellular populations of molecules to population of cells and then to groups of plants, animals and people. Large deviations in stochastic population dynamics—such as those determining population extinction, fixation or switching between different states—are presently in a focus of attention of statistical physicists. We review recent progress in applying different variants of dissipative WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) to this class of problems. The WKB approximation allows one to evaluate the mean time and/or probability of population extinction, fixation and switches resulting from either intrinsic (demographic) noise, or a combination of the demographic noise and environmental variations, deterministic or random. We mostly cover well-mixed populations, single and multiple, but also briefly consider populations on heterogeneous networks and spatial populations. The spatial setting also allows one to study large fluctuations of the speed of biological invasions. Finally, we briefly discuss possible directions of future work.

Landsat image and sample design for water reservoirs (Rapel dam Central Chile).

PubMed

Lavanderos, L; Pozo, M E; Pattillo, C; Miranda, H

1990-01-01

Spatial heterogeneity of the Rapel reservoir surface waters is analyzed through Landsat images. The image digital counts are used with the aim or developing an aprioristic quantitative sample design.Natural horizontal stratification of the Rapel Reservoir (Central Chile) is produced mainly by suspended solids. The spatial heterogeneity conditions of the reservoir for the Spring 86-Summer 87 period were determined by qualitative analysis and image processing of the MSS Landsat, bands 1 and 3. The space-time variations of the different observed strata obtained with multitemporal image analysis.A random stratified sample design (r.s.s.d) was developed, based on the digital counts statistical analysis. Strata population size as well as the average, variance and sampling size of the digital counts were obtained by the r.s.s.d method.Stratification determined by analysis of satellite images were later correlated with ground data. Though the stratification of the reservoir is constant over time, the shape and size of the strata varys.

Preferential selection based on degree difference in the spatial prisoner's dilemma games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Changwei; Dai, Qionglin; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong

2017-10-01

Strategy evolution in spatial evolutionary games is generally implemented through imitation processes between individuals. In most previous studies, it is assumed that individuals pick up one of their neighbors randomly to learn from. However, by considering the heterogeneity of individuals' influence in the real society, preferential selection is more realistic. Here, we introduce a preferential selection mechanism based on degree difference into spatial prisoner's dilemma games on Erdös-Rényi networks and Barabási-Albert scale-free networks and investigate the effects of the preferential selection on cooperation. The results show that, when the individuals prefer to choose the neighbors who have small degree difference with themselves to imitate, cooperation is hurt by the preferential selection. In contrast, when the individuals prefer to choose those large degree difference neighbors to learn from, there exists optimal preference strength resulting in the maximal cooperation level no matter what the network structure is. In addition, we investigate the robustness of the results against variations of the noise, the average degree and the size of network in the model, and find that the qualitative features of the results are unchanged.

Meteorology-induced variations in the spatial behavior of summer ozone pollution in Central California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ling; Harley, Robert A.; Brown, Nancy J.

Cluster analysis was applied to daily 8 h ozone maxima modeled for a summer season to characterize meteorology-induced variations in the spatial distribution of ozone. Principal component analysis is employed to form a reduced dimension set to describe and interpret ozone spatial patterns. The first three principal components (PCs) capture {approx}85% of total variance, with PC1 describing a general spatial trend, and PC2 and PC3 each describing a spatial contrast. Six clusters were identified for California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) with two low, three moderate, and one high-ozone cluster. The moderate ozone clusters are distinguished by elevated ozone levels inmore » different parts of the valley: northern, western, and eastern, respectively. The SJV ozone clusters have stronger coupling with the San Francisco Bay area (SFB) than with the Sacramento Valley (SV). Variations in ozone spatial distributions induced by anthropogenic emission changes are small relative to the overall variations in ozone amomalies observed for the whole summer. Ozone regimes identified here are mostly determined by the direct and indirect meteorological effects. Existing measurement sites are sufficiently representative to capture ozone spatial patterns in the SFB and SV, but the western side of the SJV is under-sampled.« less

Contact line motion over substrates with spatially non-uniform properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaev, Vladimir; Gatapova, Elizaveta; Kabov, Oleg

2017-11-01

We develop mathematical models of moving contact lines over flat solid surfaces with spatial variation of temperature and wetting properties under the conditions when evaporation is significant. The gas phase is assumed to be pure vapor and a lubrication-type framework is employed for describing viscous flow in the liquid. Marangoni stresses at the liquid surface arise as a result of temperature variation in the vapor phase, non-equilibrium effects during evaporation at the interface, and Kelvin effect. The relative importance of these three factors is determined. Variation of wetting properties is modeled through a two-component disjoining pressure, with the main focus on spatially periodic patterns leading to time-periodic variation of the contact line speed.

Coupled Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Controls on Seasonal and Spatial Variations of River Water Quality during Baseflow in a Coastal Watershed of Southeast China

PubMed Central

Huang, Jinliang; Huang, Yaling; Zhang, Zhenyu

2014-01-01

Surface water samples of baseflow were collected from 20 headwater sub-watersheds which were classified into three types of watersheds (natural, urban and agricultural) in the flood, dry and transition seasons during three consecutive years (2010–2012) within a coastal watershed of Southeast China. Integrating spatial statistics with multivariate statistical techniques, river water quality variations and their interactions with natural and anthropogenic controls were examined to identify the causal factors and underlying mechanisms governing spatiotemporal patterns of water quality. Anthropogenic input related to industrial effluents and domestic wastewater, agricultural activities associated with the precipitation-induced surface runoff, and natural weathering process were identified as the potential important factors to drive the seasonal variations in stream water quality for the transition, flood and dry seasons, respectively. All water quality indicators except SRP had the highest mean concentrations in the dry and transition seasons. Anthropogenic activities and watershed characteristics led to the spatial variations in stream water quality in three types of watersheds. Concentrations of NH4 +-N, SRP, K+, CODMn, and Cl− were generally highest in urban watersheds. NO3 –N Concentration was generally highest in agricultural watersheds. Mg2+ concentration in natural watersheds was significantly higher than that in agricultural watersheds. Spatial autocorrelations analysis showed similar levels of water pollution between the neighboring sub-watersheds exhibited in the dry and transition seasons while non-point source pollution contributed to the significant variations in water quality between neighboring sub-watersheds. Spatial regression analysis showed anthropogenic controls played critical roles in variations of water quality in the JRW. Management implications were further discussed for water resource management. This research demonstrates that the coupled effects of natural and anthropogenic controls involved in watershed processes, contribute to the seasonal and spatial variation of headwater stream water quality in a coastal watershed with high spatial variability and intensive anthropogenic activities. PMID:24618771

A study of the breast cancer dynamics in North Carolina.

PubMed

Christakos, G; Lai, J J

1997-11-01

This work is concerned with the study of breast cancer incidence in the State of North Carolina. Methodologically, the current analysis illustrates the importance of spatiotemporal random field modelling and introduces a mode of reasoning that is based on a combination of inductive and deductive processes. The composite space/time analysis utilizes the variability characteristics of incidence and the mathematical features of the random field model to fit it to the data. The analysis is significantly general and can efficiently represent non-homogeneous and non-stationary characteristics of breast cancer variation. Incidence predictions are produced using data at the same time period as well as data from other time periods and disease registries. The random field provides a rigorous and systematic method for generating detailed maps, which offer a quantitative description of the incidence variation from place to place and from time to time, together with a measure of the accuracy of the incidence maps. Spatiotemporal mapping accounts for the geographical locations and the time instants of the incidence observations, which is not usually the case with most empirical Bayes methods. It is also more accurate than purely spatial statistics methods, and can offer valuable information about the breast cancer risk and dynamics in North Carolina. Field studies could be initialized in high-rate areas identified by the maps in an effort to uncover environmental or life-style factors that might be responsible for the high risk rates. Also, the incidence maps can help elucidate causal mechanisms, explain disease occurrences at a certain scale, and offer guidance in health management and administration.

Entropy of spatial network ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, Justin P.; Dettmann, Carl P.; Georgiou, Orestis

2018-04-01

We analyze complexity in spatial network ensembles through the lens of graph entropy. Mathematically, we model a spatial network as a soft random geometric graph, i.e., a graph with two sources of randomness, namely nodes located randomly in space and links formed independently between pairs of nodes with probability given by a specified function (the "pair connection function") of their mutual distance. We consider the general case where randomness arises in node positions as well as pairwise connections (i.e., for a given pair distance, the corresponding edge state is a random variable). Classical random geometric graph and exponential graph models can be recovered in certain limits. We derive a simple bound for the entropy of a spatial network ensemble and calculate the conditional entropy of an ensemble given the node location distribution for hard and soft (probabilistic) pair connection functions. Under this formalism, we derive the connection function that yields maximum entropy under general constraints. Finally, we apply our analytical framework to study two practical examples: ad hoc wireless networks and the US flight network. Through the study of these examples, we illustrate that both exhibit properties that are indicative of nearly maximally entropic ensembles.

Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth

2010-01-01

The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.

Face Recognition Is Affected by Similarity in Spatial Frequency Range to a Greater Degree Than Within-Category Object Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collin, Charles A.; Liu, Chang Hong; Troje, Nikolaus F.; McMullen, Patricia A.; Chaudhuri, Avi

2004-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that face identification is more sensitive to variations in spatial frequency content than object recognition, but none have compared how sensitive the 2 processes are to variations in spatial frequency overlap (SFO). The authors tested face and object matching accuracy under varying SFO conditions. Their results…

Variation in coastal Antarctic microbial community composition at sub-mesoscale: spatial distance or environmental filtering?

PubMed

Moreno-Pino, Mario; De la Iglesia, Rodrigo; Valdivia, Nelson; Henríquez-Castilo, Carlos; Galán, Alexander; Díez, Beatriz; Trefault, Nicole

2016-07-01

Spatial environmental heterogeneity influences diversity of organisms at different scales. Environmental filtering suggests that local environmental conditions provide habitat-specific scenarios for niche requirements, ultimately determining the composition of local communities. In this work, we analyze the spatial variation of microbial communities across environmental gradients of sea surface temperature, salinity and photosynthetically active radiation and spatial distance in Fildes Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. We hypothesize that environmental filters are the main control of the spatial variation of these communities. Thus, strong relationships between community composition and environmental variation and weak relationships between community composition and spatial distance are expected. Combining physical characterization of the water column, cell counts by flow cytometry, small ribosomal subunit genes fingerprinting and next generation sequencing, we contrast the abundance and composition of photosynthetic eukaryotes and heterotrophic bacterial local communities at a submesoscale. Our results indicate that the strength of the environmental controls differed markedly between eukaryotes and bacterial communities. Whereas eukaryotic photosynthetic assemblages responded weakly to environmental variability, bacteria respond promptly to fine-scale environmental changes in this polar marine system. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayat, Bardia; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Taghavi, Farahnaz; Nasseri, Mohsen

2013-08-01

Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.

Accounting for autocorrelation in multi-drug resistant tuberculosis predictors using a set of parsimonious orthogonal eigenvectors aggregated in geographic space.

PubMed

Jacob, Benjamin J; Krapp, Fiorella; Ponce, Mario; Gottuzzo, Eduardo; Griffith, Daniel A; Novak, Robert J

2010-05-01

Spatial autocorrelation is problematic for classical hierarchical cluster detection tests commonly used in multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) analyses as considerable random error can occur. Therefore, when MDRTB clusters are spatially autocorrelated the assumption that the clusters are independently random is invalid. In this research, a product moment correlation coefficient (i.e., the Moran's coefficient) was used to quantify local spatial variation in multiple clinical and environmental predictor variables sampled in San Juan de Lurigancho, Lima, Peru. Initially, QuickBird 0.61 m data, encompassing visible bands and the near infra-red bands, were selected to synthesize images of land cover attributes of the study site. Data of residential addresses of individual patients with smear-positive MDR-TB were geocoded, prevalence rates calculated and then digitally overlaid onto the satellite data within a 2 km buffer of 31 georeferenced health centers, using a 10 m2 grid-based algorithm. Geographical information system (GIS)-gridded measurements of each health center were generated based on preliminary base maps of the georeferenced data aggregated to block groups and census tracts within each buffered area. A three-dimensional model of the study site was constructed based on a digital elevation model (DEM) to determine terrain covariates associated with the sampled MDR-TB covariates. Pearson's correlation was used to evaluate the linear relationship between the DEM and the sampled MDR-TB data. A SAS/GIS(R) module was then used to calculate univariate statistics and to perform linear and non-linear regression analyses using the sampled predictor variables. The estimates generated from a global autocorrelation analyses were then spatially decomposed into empirical orthogonal bases using a negative binomial regression with a non-homogeneous mean. Results of the DEM analyses indicated a statistically non-significant, linear relationship between georeferenced health centers and the sampled covariate elevation. The data exhibited positive spatial autocorrelation and the decomposition of Moran's coefficient into uncorrelated, orthogonal map pattern components revealed global spatial heterogeneities necessary to capture latent autocorrelation in the MDR-TB model. It was thus shown that Poisson regression analyses and spatial eigenvector mapping can elucidate the mechanics of MDR-TB transmission by prioritizing clinical and environmental-sampled predictor variables for identifying high risk populations.

Syzygies, Pluricanonical Maps, and the Birational Geometry of Varieties of Maximal Albanese Dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesfagiorgis, Kibrewossen B.

Satellite Precipitation Estimates (SPEs) may be the only available source of information for operational hydrologic and flash flood prediction due to spatial limitations of radar and gauge products in mountainous regions. The present work develops an approach to seamlessly blend satellite, available radar, climatological and gauge precipitation products to fill gaps in ground-based radar precipitation field. To mix different precipitation products, the error of any of the products relative to each other should be removed. For bias correction, the study uses a new ensemble-based method which aims to estimate spatially varying multiplicative biases in SPEs using a radar-gauge precipitation product. Bias factors were calculated for a randomly selected sample of rainy pixels in the study area. Spatial fields of estimated bias were generated taking into account spatial variation and random errors in the sampled values. In addition to biases, sometimes there is also spatial error between the radar and satellite precipitation estimates; one of them has to be geometrically corrected with reference to the other. A set of corresponding raining points between SPE and radar products are selected to apply linear registration using a regularized least square technique to minimize the dislocation error in SPEs with respect to available radar products. A weighted Successive Correction Method (SCM) is used to make the merging between error corrected satellite and radar precipitation estimates. In addition to SCM, we use a combination of SCM and Bayesian spatial method for merging the rain gauges and climatological precipitation sources with radar and SPEs. We demonstrated the method using two satellite-based, CPC Morphing (CMORPH) and Hydro-Estimator (HE), two radar-gauge based, Stage-II and ST-IV, a climatological product PRISM and rain gauge dataset for several rain events from 2006 to 2008 over different geographical locations of the United States. Results show that: (a) the method of ensembles helped reduce biases in SPEs significantly; (b) the SCM method in combination with the Bayesian spatial model produced a precipitation product in good agreement with independent measurements .The study implies that using the available radar pixels surrounding the gap area, rain gauge, PRISM and satellite products, a radar like product is achievable over radar gap areas that benefits the operational meteorology and hydrology community.

MAINTENANCE OF ECOLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT GENETIC VARIATION IN THE TIGER SWALLOWTAIL BUTTERFLY THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL SELECTION AND GENE FLOW.

PubMed

Bossart, J L; Scriber, J M

1995-12-01

Differential selection in a heterogeneous environment is thought to promote the maintenance of ecologically significant genetic variation. Variation is maintained when selection is counterbalanced by the homogenizing effects of gene flow and random mating. In this study, we examine the relative importance of differential selection and gene flow in maintaining genetic variation in Papilio glaucus. Differential selection on traits contributing to successful use of host plants (oviposition preference and larval performance) was assessed by comparing the responses of southern Ohio, north central Georgia, and southern Florida populations of P. glaucus to three hosts: Liriodendron tulipifera, Magnolia virginiana, and Prunus serotina. Gene flow among populations was estimated using allozyme frequencies from nine polymorphic loci. Significant genetic differentiation was observed among populations for both oviposition preference and larval performance. This differentiation was interpreted to be the result of selection acting on Florida P. glaucus for enhanced use of Magnolia, the prevalent host in Florida. In contrast, no evidence of population differentiation was revealed by allozyme frequencies. F ST -values were very small and Nm, an estimate of the relative strengths of gene flow and genetic drift, was large, indicating that genetic exchange among P. glaucus populations is relatively unrestricted. The contrasting patterns of spatial differentiation for host-use traits and lack of differentiation for electrophoretically detectable variation implies that differential selection among populations will be counterbalanced by gene flow, thereby maintaining genetic variation for host-use traits. © 1995 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Spatio-temporal variation in click production rates of beaked whales: Implications for passive acoustic density estimation.

PubMed

Warren, Victoria E; Marques, Tiago A; Harris, Danielle; Thomas, Len; Tyack, Peter L; Aguilar de Soto, Natacha; Hickmott, Leigh S; Johnson, Mark P

2017-03-01

Passive acoustic monitoring has become an increasingly prevalent tool for estimating density of marine mammals, such as beaked whales, which vocalize often but are difficult to survey visually. Counts of acoustic cues (e.g., vocalizations), when corrected for detection probability, can be translated into animal density estimates by applying an individual cue production rate multiplier. It is essential to understand variation in these rates to avoid biased estimates. The most direct way to measure cue production rate is with animal-mounted acoustic recorders. This study utilized data from sound recording tags deployed on Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris, 19 deployments) and Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris, 16 deployments) beaked whales, in two locations per species, to explore spatial and temporal variation in click production rates. No spatial or temporal variation was detected within the average click production rate of Blainville's beaked whales when calculated over dive cycles (including silent periods between dives); however, spatial variation was detected when averaged only over vocal periods. Cuvier's beaked whales exhibited significant spatial and temporal variation in click production rates within vocal periods and when silent periods were included. This evidence of variation emphasizes the need to utilize appropriate cue production rates when estimating density from passive acoustic data.

Spatial Variability of Grapevine Bud Burst Percentage and Its Association with Soil Properties at Field Scale

PubMed Central

Li, Tao; Hao, Xinmei; Kang, Shaozhong

2016-01-01

There is a growing interest in precision viticulture with the development of global positioning system and geographical information system technologies. Limited information is available on spatial variation of bud behavior and its possible association with soil properties. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial variability of bud burst percentage and its association with soil properties based on 2-year experiments at a vineyard of arid northwest China. Geostatistical approach was used to describe the spatial variation in bud burst percentage within the vineyard. Partial least square regressions (PLSRs) of bud burst percentage with soil properties were used to evaluate the contribution of soil properties to overall spatial variability in bud burst percentage for the high, medium and low bud burst percentage groups. Within the vineyard, the coefficient of variation (CV) of bud burst percentage was 20% and 15% for 2012 and 2013 respectively. Bud burst percentage within the vineyard showed moderate spatial variability, and the overall spatial pattern of bud burst percentage was similar between the two years. Soil properties alone explained 31% and 37% of the total spatial variation respectively for the low group of 2012 and 2013, and 16% and 24% for the high group of 2012 and 2013 respectively. For the low group, the fraction of variations explained by soil properties was found similar between the two years, while there was substantial difference for the high group. The findings are expected to lay a good foundation for developing remedy measures in the areas with low bud burst percentage, thus in turn improving the overall grape yield and quality. PMID:27798692

Spreading speeds for plant populations in landscapes with low environmental variation.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark A; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Bullock, James M; White, Steven M

2014-12-21

Characterising the spread of biological populations is crucial in responding to both biological invasions and the shifting of habitat under climate change. Spreading speeds can be studied through mathematical models such as the discrete-time integro-difference equation (IDE) framework. The usual approach in implementing IDE models has been to ignore spatial variation in the demographic and dispersal parameters and to assume that these are spatially homogeneous. On the other hand, real landscapes are rarely spatially uniform with environmental variation being very important in determining biological spread. This raises the question of under what circumstances spatial structure need not be modelled explicitly. Recent work has shown that spatial variation can be ignored for the specific case where the scale of landscape variation is much smaller than the spreading population׳s dispersal scale. We consider more general types of landscape, where the spatial scales of environmental variation are arbitrarily large, but the maximum change in environmental parameters is relatively small. We find that the difference between the wave-speeds of populations spreading in a spatially structured periodic landscape and its homogenisation is, in general, proportional to ϵ(2), where ϵ governs the degree of environmental variation. For stochastically generated landscapes we numerically demonstrate that the error decays faster than ϵ. In both cases, this means that for sufficiently small ϵ, the homogeneous approximation is better than might be expected. Hence, in many situations, the precise details of the landscape can be ignored in favour of spatially homogeneous parameters. This means that field ecologists can use the homogeneous IDE as a relatively simple modelling tool--in terms of both measuring parameter values and doing the modelling itself. However, as ϵ increases, this homogeneous approximation loses its accuracy. The change in wave-speed due to the extrinsic (landscape) variation can be positive or negative, which is in contrast to the reduction in wave-speed caused by intrinsic stochasticity. To deal with the loss of accuracy as ϵ increases, we formulate a second-order approximation to the wave-speed for periodic landscapes and compare both approximations against the results of numerical simulation and show that they are both accurate for the range of landscapes considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Variation of Soil Respiration in a Cropland under Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Rotation in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Huang, Ni; Wang, Li; Hu, Yongsen; Tian, Haifeng; Niu, Zheng

2016-01-01

Spatial variation of soil respiration (Rs) in cropland ecosystems must be assessed to evaluate the global terrestrial carbon budget. This study aims to explore the spatial characteristics and controlling factors of Rs in a cropland under winter wheat and summer maize rotation in the North China Plain. We collected Rs data from 23 sample plots in the cropland. At the late jointing stage, the daily mean Rs of summer maize (4.74 μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) was significantly higher than that of winter wheat (3.77μmol CO2 m-2 s-1). However, the spatial variation of Rs in summer maize (coefficient of variation, CV = 12.2%) was lower than that in winter wheat (CV = 18.5%). A similar trend in CV was also observed for environmental factors but not for biotic factors, such as leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and canopy chlorophyll content. Pearson's correlation analyses based on the sampling data revealed that the spatial variation of Rs was poorly explained by the spatial variations of biotic factors, environmental factors, or soil properties alone for winter wheat and summer maize. The similarly non-significant relationship was observed between Rs and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), which was used as surrogate for plant photosynthesis. EVI was better correlated with field-measured leaf area index than the normalized difference vegetation index and red edge chlorophyll index. All the data from the 23 sample plots were categorized into three clusters based on the cluster analysis of soil carbon/nitrogen and soil organic carbon content. An apparent improvement was observed in the relationship between Rs and EVI in each cluster for both winter wheat and summer maize. The spatial variation of Rs in the cropland under winter wheat and summer maize rotation could be attributed to the differences in spatial variations of soil properties and biotic factors. The results indicate that applying cluster analysis to minimize differences in soil properties among different clusters can improve the role of remote sensing data as a proxy of plant photosynthesis in semi-empirical Rs models and benefit the acquisition of Rs in cropland ecosystems at large scales.

Land cover in the Guayas Basin using SAR images from low resolution ASAR Global mode to high resolution Sentinel-1 images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourrel, Luc; Brodu, Nicolas; Frappart, Frédéric

2016-04-01

Remotely sensed images allow a frequent monitoring of land cover variations at regional and global scale. Recently launched Sentinel-1 satellite offers a global cover of land areas at an unprecedented spatial (20 m) and temporal (6 days at the Equator). We propose here to compare the performances of commonly used supervised classification techniques (i.e., k-nearest neighbors, linear and Gaussian support vector machines, naive Bayes, linear and quadratic discriminant analyzes, adaptative boosting, loggit regression, ridge regression with one-vs-one voting, random forest, extremely randomized trees) for land cover applications in the Guayas Basin, the largest river basin of the Pacific coast of Ecuator (area ~32,000 km²). The reason of this choice is the importance of this region in Ecuatorian economy as its watershed represents 13% of the total area of Ecuador where 40% of the Ecuadorian population lives. It also corresponds to the most productive region of Ecuador for agriculture and aquaculture. Fifty percents of the country shrimp farming production comes from this watershed, and represents with agriculture the largest source of revenue of the country. Similar comparisons are also performed using ENVISAT ASAR images acquired in global mode (1 km of spatial resolution). Accuracy of the results will be achieved using land cover map derived from multi-spectral images.

SiGe epitaxial memory for neuromorphic computing with reproducible high performance based on engineered dislocations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Shinhyun; Tan, Scott H.; Li, Zefan; Kim, Yunjo; Choi, Chanyeol; Chen, Pai-Yu; Yeon, Hanwool; Yu, Shimeng; Kim, Jeehwan

2018-01-01

Although several types of architecture combining memory cells and transistors have been used to demonstrate artificial synaptic arrays, they usually present limited scalability and high power consumption. Transistor-free analog switching devices may overcome these limitations, yet the typical switching process they rely on—formation of filaments in an amorphous medium—is not easily controlled and hence hampers the spatial and temporal reproducibility of the performance. Here, we demonstrate analog resistive switching devices that possess desired characteristics for neuromorphic computing networks with minimal performance variations using a single-crystalline SiGe layer epitaxially grown on Si as a switching medium. Such epitaxial random access memories utilize threading dislocations in SiGe to confine metal filaments in a defined, one-dimensional channel. This confinement results in drastically enhanced switching uniformity and long retention/high endurance with a high analog on/off ratio. Simulations using the MNIST handwritten recognition data set prove that epitaxial random access memories can operate with an online learning accuracy of 95.1%.

Statistics of Advective Stretching in Three-dimensional Incompressible Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Natarajan; Kellogg, Louise H.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2009-09-01

We present a method to quantify kinematic stretching in incompressible, unsteady, isoviscous, three-dimensional flows. We extend the method of Kellogg and Turcotte (J. Geophys. Res. 95:421-432, 1990) to compute the axial stretching/thinning experienced by infinitesimal ellipsoidal strain markers in arbitrary three-dimensional incompressible flows and discuss the differences between our method and the computation of Finite Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE). We use the cellular flow model developed in Solomon and Mezic (Nature 425:376-380, 2003) to study the statistics of stretching in a three-dimensional unsteady cellular flow. We find that the probability density function of the logarithm of normalised cumulative stretching (log S) for a globally chaotic flow, with spatially heterogeneous stretching behavior, is not Gaussian and that the coefficient of variation of the Gaussian distribution does not decrease with time as t^{-1/2} . However, it is observed that stretching becomes exponential log S˜ t and the probability density function of log S becomes Gaussian when the time dependence of the flow and its three-dimensionality are increased to make the stretching behaviour of the flow more spatially uniform. We term these behaviors weak and strong chaotic mixing respectively. We find that for strongly chaotic mixing, the coefficient of variation of the Gaussian distribution decreases with time as t^{-1/2} . This behavior is consistent with a random multiplicative stretching process.

Predicting Intra-Urban Population Densities in Africa using SAR and Optical Remote Sensing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linard, C.; Steele, J.; Forget, Y.; Lopez, J.; Shimoni, M.

2017-12-01

The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving profound social, environmental and epidemiological changes within rapidly growing cities. Estimations of within-city variations in population density must be improved in order to take urban heterogeneities into account and better help urban research and decision making, especially for vulnerability and health assessments. Satellite remote sensing offers an effective solution for mapping settlements and monitoring urbanization at different spatial and temporal scales. In Africa, the urban landscape is covered by slums and small houses, where the heterogeneity is high and where the man-made materials are natural. Innovative methods that combine optical and SAR data are therefore necessary for improving settlement mapping and population density predictions. An automatic method was developed to estimate built-up densities using recent and archived optical and SAR data and a multi-temporal database of built-up densities was produced for 48 African cities. Geo-statistical methods were then used to study the relationships between census-derived population densities and satellite-derived built-up attributes. Best predictors were combined in a Random Forest framework in order to predict intra-urban variations in population density in any large African city. Models show significant improvement of our spatial understanding of urbanization and urban population distribution in Africa in comparison to the state of the art.

Temporal Dynamics and Spatial Variation of Azoxystrobin and Propiconazole Resistance in Zymoseptoria tritici: A Hierarchical Survey of Commercial Winter Wheat Fields in the Willamette Valley, Oregon.

PubMed

Hagerty, Christina H; Anderson, Nicole P; Mundt, Christopher C

2017-03-01

Fungicide resistance can cause disease control failure in agricultural systems, and is particularly concerning with Zymoseptoria tritici, the causal agent of Septoria tritici blotch of wheat. In North America, the first quinone outside inhibitor resistance in Z. tritici was discovered in the Willamette Valley of Oregon in 2012, which prompted this hierarchical survey of commercial winter wheat fields to monitor azoxystrobin- and propiconazole-resistant Z. tritici. Surveys were conducted in June 2014, January 2015, May 2015, and January 2016. The survey was organized in a hierarchical scheme: regions within the Willamette Valley, fields within the region, transects within the field, and samples within the transect. Overall, frequency of azoxystrobin-resistant isolates increased from 63 to 93% from June 2014 to January 2016. Resistance to azoxystrobin increased over time even within fields receiving no strobilurin applications. Propiconazole sensitivity varied over the course of the study but, overall, did not significantly change. Sensitivity to both fungicides showed no regional aggregation within the Willamette Valley. Greater than 80% of spatial variation in fungicide sensitivity was at the smallest hierarchical scale (within the transect) of the survey for both fungicides, and the resistance phenotypes were randomly distributed within sampled fields. Results suggest a need for a better understanding of the dynamics of fungicide resistance at the landscape level.

A new type of exact arbitrarily inhomogeneous cosmology: evolution of deceleration in the flat homogeneous-on-average case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellaby, Charles

2012-01-01

A new method for constructing exact inhomogeneous universes is presented, that allows variation in 3 dimensions. The resulting spacetime may be statistically uniform on average, or have random, non-repeating variation. The construction utilises the Darmois junction conditions to join many different component spacetime regions. In the initial simple example given, the component parts are spatially flat and uniform, but much more general combinations should be possible. Further inhomogeneity may be added via swiss cheese vacuoles and inhomogeneous metrics. This model is used to explore the proposal, that observers are located in bound, non-expanding regions, while the universe is actually in the process of becoming void dominated, and thus its average expansion rate is increasing. The model confirms qualitatively that the faster expanding components come to dominate the average, and that inhomogeneity results in average parameters which evolve differently from those of any one component, but more realistic modelling of the effect will need this construction to be generalised.

Mechanism of Muong Nong-type tektite formation and speculation on the source of Australasian tektites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnetzler, C. C.

1992-01-01

The source crater of the youngest and largest of the tektite strewnfields, the Australasian strewnfield, has not been located. A number of lines of evidence indicate that the Muong Nong-type tektites, primarily found in Indochina, are more primitive than the much more abundant and widespread splash-form tektites, and are proximal to the source. In this study the spatial distribution of Muong Nong-type tektite sites and chemical character have been used to indicate the approximate location of the source. The variation of Muong Nong-type tektite chemical composition appears to be caused by mixing of two silicate rock end-members and a small amount of limestone, and not by vapor fractionation. The variation in composition is not random, and does not support in situ melting or multiple impact theories. The distribution of both Muong Nong and splash-form tektite sites suggest the source is in a limited area near the southern part of the Thailand-Laos border.

Community-wide spatial and temporal discordances of seed-seedling shadows in a tropical rainforest.

PubMed

Rother, Débora Cristina; Pizo, Marco Aurélio; Siqueira, Tadeu; Rodrigues, Ricardo Ribeiro; Jordano, Pedro

2015-01-01

Several factors decrease plant survival throughout their lifecycles. Among them, seed dispersal limitation may play a major role by resulting in highly aggregated (contagious) seed and seedling distributions entailing increased mortality. The arrival of seeds, furthermore, may not match suitable environments for seed survival and, consequently, for seedling establishment. In this study, we investigated spatio-temporal patterns of seed and seedling distribution in contrasting microhabitats (bamboo and non-bamboo stands) from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Spatial distribution patterns, spatial concordance between seed rain and seedling recruitment between subsequent years in two fruiting seasons (2004-2005 and 2007-2009), and the relation between seeds and seedlings with environmental factors were examined within a spatially-explicit framework. Density and species richness of both seeds and seedlings were randomly distributed in non-bamboo stands, but showed significant clustering in bamboo stands. Seed and seedling distributions showed across-year inconsistency, suggesting a marked spatial decoupling of the seed and seedling stages. Generalized linear mixed effects models indicated that only seed density and seed species richness differed between stand types while accounting for variation in soil characteristics. Our analyses provide evidence of marked recruitment limitation as a result of the interplay between biotic and abiotic factors. Because bamboo stands promote heterogeneity in the forest, they are important components of the landscape. However, at high densities, bamboos may limit recruitment for the plant community by imposing marked discordances of seed arrival and early seedling recruitment.

Distance to health services affects local-level vaccine efficacy for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) among rural Filipino children.

PubMed

Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Lucero, Marilla; Nohynek, Hanna; Anthamatten, Peter; Thomas, Deborah S K; Tallo, Veronica; Tanskanen, Antti; Quiambao, Beatriz P; Puumalainen, Taneli; Lupisan, Socorro P; Ruutu, Petri; Ladesma, Erma; Williams, Gail M; Riley, Ian; Simões, Eric A F

2014-03-04

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood pneumococcal disease in several regions globally. We demonstrate how spatial epidemiological analysis of a PCV trial can assist in developing vaccination strategies that target specific geographic subpopulations at greater risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind vaccine trial that examined the efficacy of an 11-valent PCV among children less than 2 y of age in Bohol, Philippines. Trial data were linked to the residential location of each participant using a geographic information system. We use spatial interpolation methods to create smoothed surface maps of vaccination rates and local-level vaccine efficacy across the study area. We then measure the relationship between distance to the main study hospital and local-level vaccine efficacy, controlling for ecological factors, using spatial autoregressive models with spatial autoregressive disturbances. We find a significant amount of spatial variation in vaccination rates across the study area. For the primary study endpoint vaccine efficacy increased with distance from the main study hospital from -14% for children living less than 1.5 km from Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) to 55% for children living greater than 8.5 km from BRH. Spatial regression models indicated that after adjustment for ecological factors, distance to the main study hospital was positively related to vaccine efficacy, increasing at a rate of 4.5% per kilometer distance. Because areas with poor access to care have significantly higher VE, targeted vaccination of children in these areas might allow for a more effective implementation of global programs.

Large-area imaging reveals biologically driven non-random spatial patterns of corals at a remote reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Clinton B.; Eynaud, Yoan; Williams, Gareth J.; Pedersen, Nicole E.; Zgliczynski, Brian J.; Gleason, Arthur C. R.; Smith, Jennifer E.; Sandin, Stuart A.

2017-12-01

For sessile organisms such as reef-building corals, differences in the degree of dispersion of individuals across a landscape may result from important differences in life-history strategies or may reflect patterns of habitat availability. Descriptions of spatial patterns can thus be useful not only for the identification of key biological and physical mechanisms structuring an ecosystem, but also by providing the data necessary to generate and test ecological theory. Here, we used an in situ imaging technique to create large-area photomosaics of 16 plots at Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific, each covering 100 m2 of benthic habitat. We mapped the location of 44,008 coral colonies and identified each to the lowest taxonomic level possible. Using metrics of spatial dispersion, we tested for departures from spatial randomness. We also used targeted model fitting to explore candidate processes leading to differences in spatial patterns among taxa. Most taxa were clustered and the degree of clustering varied by taxon. A small number of taxa did not significantly depart from randomness and none revealed evidence of spatial uniformity. Importantly, taxa that readily fragment or tolerate stress through partial mortality were more clustered. With little exception, clustering patterns were consistent with models of fragmentation and dispersal limitation. In some taxa, dispersion was linearly related to abundance, suggesting density dependence of spatial patterning. The spatial patterns of stony corals are non-random and reflect fundamental life-history characteristics of the taxa, suggesting that the reef landscape may, in many cases, have important elements of spatial predictability.

Optimal sampling design for estimating spatial distribution and abundance of a freshwater mussel population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pooler, P.S.; Smith, D.R.

2005-01-01

We compared the ability of simple random sampling (SRS) and a variety of systematic sampling (SYS) designs to estimate abundance, quantify spatial clustering, and predict spatial distribution of freshwater mussels. Sampling simulations were conducted using data obtained from a census of freshwater mussels in a 40 X 33 m section of the Cacapon River near Capon Bridge, West Virginia, and from a simulated spatially random population generated to have the same abundance as the real population. Sampling units that were 0.25 m 2 gave more accurate and precise abundance estimates and generally better spatial predictions than 1-m2 sampling units. Systematic sampling with ???2 random starts was more efficient than SRS. Estimates of abundance based on SYS were more accurate when the distance between sampling units across the stream was less than or equal to the distance between sampling units along the stream. Three measures for quantifying spatial clustering were examined: Hopkins Statistic, the Clumping Index, and Morisita's Index. Morisita's Index was the most reliable, and the Hopkins Statistic was prone to false rejection of complete spatial randomness. SYS designs with units spaced equally across and up stream provided the most accurate predictions when estimating the spatial distribution by kriging. Our research indicates that SYS designs with sampling units equally spaced both across and along the stream would be appropriate for sampling freshwater mussels even if no information about the true underlying spatial distribution of the population were available to guide the design choice. ?? 2005 by The North American Benthological Society.

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Edward J.; Wright, C. Wayne; Vandemark, Douglas C.; Krabill, William B.; Garcia, Andrew W.; Houston, Samuel H.; Powell, Mark D.; Black, Peter G.; Marke, Frank D.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

On 26 August 1998, hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 2.2 km height documented the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Hurricane Directional Wave Spectrum Spatial Variation at Landfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, E. J.; Wright, C. W.; Vandemark, D.; Krabill, W. B.; Garcia, A. W.

1999-01-01

On 26 August 1998, hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 2.2 km height documented the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Stability of Major Geogenic Cations in Drinking Water-An Issue of Public Health Importance: A Danish Study, 1980⁻2017.

PubMed

Wodschow, Kirstine; Hansen, Birgitte; Schullehner, Jörg; Ersbøll, Annette Kjær

2018-06-08

Concentrations and spatial variations of the four cations Na, K, Mg and Ca are known to some extent for groundwater and to a lesser extent for drinking water. Using Denmark as case, the purpose of this study was to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in the major cations in drinking water. The results will contribute to a better exposure estimation in future studies of the association between cations and diseases. Spatial and temporal variations and the association with aquifer types, were analyzed with spatial scan statistics, linear regression and a multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model. About 65,000 water samples of each cation (1980⁻2017) were included in the study. Results of mean concentrations were 31.4 mg/L, 3.5 mg/L, 12.1 mg/L and 84.5 mg/L for 1980⁻2017 for Na, K, Mg and Ca, respectively. An expected west-east trend in concentrations were confirmed, mainly explained by variations in aquifer types. The trend in concentration was stable for about 31⁻45% of the public water supply areas. It is therefore recommended that the exposure estimate in future health related studies not only be based on a single mean value, but that temporal and spatial variations should also be included.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-05-20

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months.

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Chlorophyll-a in the Adjacent Sea Area of the Yangtze River Estuary Influenced by Yangtze River Discharge

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Zhang, Xiuying; Lu, Xuehe; Wang, Yueqi

2015-01-01

Carrying abundant nutrition, terrigenous freshwater has a great impact on the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of phytoplankton in coastal waters. The present study analyzed the spatial-temporal variations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration under the influence of discharge from the Yangtze River, based on remotely sensed Chl-a concentrations. The study area was initially zoned to quantitatively investigate the spatial variation patterns of Chl-a. Then, the temporal variation of Chl-a in each zone was simulated by a sinusoidal curve model. The results showed that in the inshore waters, the terrigenous discharge was the predominant driving force determining the pattern of Chl-a, which brings the risk of red tide disasters; while in the open sea areas, Chl-a was mainly affected by meteorological factors. Furthermore, a diversity of spatial and temporal variations of Chl-a existed based on the degree of influences from discharge. The diluted water extended from inshore to the east of Jeju Island. This process affected the Chl-a concentration flowing through the area, and had a potential impact on the marine environment. The Chl-a from September to November showed an obvious response to the discharge from July to September with a lag of 1 to 2 months. PMID:26006121

Better Safe than Sorry - Socio-Spatial Group Structure Emerges from Individual Variation in Fleeing, Avoidance or Velocity in an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M.; Sterck, Elisabeth H. M.

2011-01-01

In group-living animals, such as primates, the average spatial group structure often reflects the dominance hierarchy, with central dominants and peripheral subordinates. This central-peripheral group structure can arise by self-organization as a result of subordinates fleeing from dominants after losing a fight. However, in real primates, subordinates often avoid interactions with potentially aggressive group members, thereby preventing aggression and subsequent fleeing. Using agent-based modeling, we investigated which spatial and encounter structures emerge when subordinates also avoid known potential aggressors at a distance as compared with the model which only included fleeing after losing a fight (fleeing model). A central-peripheral group structure emerged in most conditions. When avoidance was employed at small or intermediate distances, centrality of dominants emerged similar to the fleeing model, but in a more pronounced way. This result was also found when fleeing after a fight was made independent of dominance rank, i.e. occurred randomly. Employing avoidance at larger distances yielded more spread out groups. This provides a possible explanation of larger group spread in more aggressive species. With avoidance at very large distances, spatially and socially distinct subgroups emerged. We also investigated how encounters were distributed amongst group members. In the fleeing model all individuals encountered all group members equally often, whereas in the avoidance model encounters occurred mostly among similar-ranking individuals. Finally, we also identified a very general and simple mechanism causing a central-peripheral group structure: when individuals merely differed in velocity, faster individuals automatically ended up at the periphery. In summary, a central-peripheral group pattern can easily emerge from individual variation in different movement properties in general, such as fleeing, avoidance or velocity. Moreover, avoidance behavior also affects the encounter structure and can lead to subgroup formation. PMID:22125595

Environmental factors controlling spatial variation in sediment yield in a central Andean mountain area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, Armando; Govers, Gerard; Poesen, Jean; Van Hemelryck, Hendrik; De Bièvre, Bert; Vanacker, Veerle

2008-06-01

A large spatial variability in sediment yield was observed from small streams in the Ecuadorian Andes. The objective of this study was to analyze the environmental factors controlling these variations in sediment yield in the Paute basin, Ecuador. Sediment yield data were calculated based on sediment volumes accumulated behind checkdams for 37 small catchments. Mean annual specific sediment yield (SSY) shows a large spatial variability and ranges between 26 and 15,100 Mg km - 2 year - 1 . Mean vegetation cover (C, fraction) in the catchment, i.e. the plant cover at or near the surface, exerts a first order control on sediment yield. The fractional vegetation cover alone explains 57% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). The negative exponential relation (SSY = a × e- b C) which was found between vegetation cover and sediment yield at the catchment scale (10 3-10 9 m 2), is very similar to the equations derived from splash, interrill and rill erosion experiments at the plot scale (1-10 3 m 2). This affirms the general character of an exponential decrease of sediment yield with increasing vegetation cover at a wide range of spatial scales, provided the distribution of cover can be considered to be essentially random. Lithology also significantly affects the sediment yield, and explains an additional 23% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). Based on these two catchment parameters, a multiple regression model was built. This empirical regression model already explains more than 75% of the total variance in the mean annual sediment yield. These results highlight the large potential of revegetation programs for controlling sediment yield. They show that a slight increase in the overall fractional vegetation cover of degraded land is likely to have a large effect on sediment production and delivery. Moreover, they point to the importance of detailed surface vegetation data for predicting and modeling sediment production rates.

Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Variation Along Climatic and Topographic Trajectories in the Central Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavilan, C.; Grunwald, S.; Quiroz, R.; Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

The Andes represent the largest and highest mountain range in the tropics. Geological and climatic differentiation favored landscape and soil diversity, resulting in ecosystems adapted to very different climatic patterns. Although several studies support the fact that the Andes are a vast sink of soil organic carbon (SOC) only few have quantified this variable in situ. Estimating the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in data-poor and/or poorly accessible areas, like the Andean region, is challenging due to the lack of recent soil data at high spatial resolution and the wide range of coexistent ecosystems. Thus, the sampling strategy is vital in order to ensure the whole range of environmental covariates (EC) controlling SOC dynamics is represented. This approach allows grasping the variability of the area, which leads to more efficient statistical estimates and improves the modeling process. The objectives of this study were to i) characterize and model the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in the Central Andean region using soil-landscape modeling techniques, and to ii) validate and evaluate the model for predicting SOC content in the area. For that purpose, three representative study areas were identified and a suite of variables including elevation, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), among others, was selected as EC. A stratified random sampling (namely conditioned Latin Hypercube) was implemented and a total of 400 sampling locations were identified. At all sites, four composite topsoil samples (0-30 cm) were collected within a 2 m radius. SOC content was measured using dry combustion and SOC stocks were estimated using bulk density measurements. Regression Kriging was used to map the spatial variation of SOC stocks. The accuracy, fit and bias of SOC models was assessed using a rigorous validation assessment. This study produced the first comprehensive, geospatial SOC stock assessment in this undersampled region that serves as a baseline reference to assess potential impacts of climate and land use change.

Changes in composition of cuticular biochemicals of the facultatively polygynous ant Petalomyrmex phylax during range expansion in Cameroon with respect to social, spatial and genetic variation.

PubMed

Dalecky, Ambroise; Renucci, Marielle; Tirard, Alain; Debout, Gabriel; Roux, Maurice; Kjellberg, Finn; Provost, Erick

2007-09-01

In social insects, biochemicals found at the surface of the cuticle are involved in the recognition process and in protection against desiccation and pathogens. However, the relative contribution of evolutionary forces in shaping diversity of these biochemicals remains largely unresolved in ants. We determined the composition of epicuticular biochemicals for workers sampled in 12 populations of the ant Petalomyrmex phylax from Cameroon. Genetic variation at 12 microsatellite markers was used to infer population history and to provide null expectations under the neutrality hypothesis. Genetic data suggest a recent southward range expansion of this ant species. Furthermore, there is a decline southward in the numbers of queens present in mature colonies. Here, we contrast the pattern of biochemical variation against genetic, social and spatial parameters. We thus provide the first estimates of the relative contribution of neutral and selective processes on variation of ant cuticular profile. Populations in migration-drift disequilibrium showed reduction of within-population variation for genetic markers as well as for cuticular profiles. In these populations, the cuticular profile became biased towards a limited number of high molecular weight molecules. Within- and among-population biochemical variation was explained by both genetic and social variation and by the spatial distribution of populations. We therefore propose that during range expansion of P. phylax, the composition of epicuticular compounds has been affected by a combination of neutral processes - genetic drift and spatially limited dispersal - and spatially varying selection, social organization and environmental effects.

Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

PubMed Central

Dechesne, Arnaud; Badawi, Nora; Aamand, Jens; Smets, Barth F.

2014-01-01

Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays non-random spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modeling and experimental systems that do not include soil's full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil. PMID:25538691

Floodplain complexity and surface metrics: influences of scale and geomorphology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scown, Murray W.; Thoms, Martin C.; DeJager, Nathan R.

2015-01-01

Many studies of fluvial geomorphology and landscape ecology examine a single river or landscape, thus lack generality, making it difficult to develop a general understanding of the linkages between landscape patterns and larger-scale driving variables. We examined the spatial complexity of eight floodplain surfaces in widely different geographic settings and determined how patterns measured at different scales relate to different environmental drivers. Floodplain surface complexity is defined as having highly variable surface conditions that are also highly organised in space. These two components of floodplain surface complexity were measured across multiple sampling scales from LiDAR-derived DEMs. The surface character and variability of each floodplain were measured using four surface metrics; namely, standard deviation, skewness, coefficient of variation, and standard deviation of curvature from a series of moving window analyses ranging from 50 to 1000 m in radius. The spatial organisation of each floodplain surface was measured using spatial correlograms of the four surface metrics. Surface character, variability, and spatial organisation differed among the eight floodplains; and random, fragmented, highly patchy, and simple gradient spatial patterns were exhibited, depending upon the metric and window size. Differences in surface character and variability among the floodplains became statistically stronger with increasing sampling scale (window size), as did their associations with environmental variables. Sediment yield was consistently associated with differences in surface character and variability, as were flow discharge and variability at smaller sampling scales. Floodplain width was associated with differences in the spatial organization of surface conditions at smaller sampling scales, while valley slope was weakly associated with differences in spatial organisation at larger scales. A comparison of floodplain landscape patterns measured at different scales would improve our understanding of the role that different environmental variables play at different scales and in different geomorphic settings.

A Random Variable Transformation Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheuermann, Larry

1989-01-01

Provides a short BASIC program, RANVAR, which generates random variates for various theoretical probability distributions. The seven variates include: uniform, exponential, normal, binomial, Poisson, Pascal, and triangular. (MVL)

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but onlymore » in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Finally, combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior – here related to active layer depth – would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.« less

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

DOE PAGES

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; ...

2017-09-28

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but onlymore » in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Finally, combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior – here related to active layer depth – would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.« less

Soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone: spatial structure and environmental correlates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegen, James C.; Anderson, Carolyn G.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Crump, Alex R.; Chen, Xingyuan; Hess, Nancy

2017-09-01

Soil respiration is a key ecosystem function whereby shifts in respiration rates can shift systems from carbon sinks to sources. Soil respiration in permafrost-associated systems is particularly important given climate change driven permafrost thaw that leads to significant uncertainty in resulting ecosystem carbon dynamics. Here we characterize the spatial structure and environmental drivers of soil respiration across a permafrost transition zone. We find that soil respiration is characterized by a non-linear threshold that occurs at active-layer depths greater than 140 cm. We also find that within each season, tree basal area is a dominant driver of soil respiration regardless of spatial scale, but only in spatial domains with significant spatial variability in basal area. Our analyses further show that spatial variation (the coefficient of variation) and mean-variance power-law scaling of soil respiration in our boreal system are consistent with previous work in other ecosystems (e.g., tropical forests) and in population ecology, respectively. Comparing our results to those in other ecosystems suggests that temporally stable features such as tree-stand structure are often primary drivers of spatial variation in soil respiration. If so, this provides an opportunity to better estimate the magnitude and spatial variation in soil respiration through remote sensing. Combining such an approach with broader knowledge of thresholding behavior - here related to active layer depth - would provide empirical constraints on models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to ongoing permafrost thaw.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yan-Rong; Wang, Jian-Min; Bai, Jin-Ming, E-mail: liyanrong@mail.ihep.ac.cn

Broad emission lines of active galactic nuclei stem from a spatially extended region (broad-line region, BLR) that is composed of discrete clouds and photoionized by the central ionizing continuum. The temporal behaviors of these emission lines are blurred echoes of continuum variations (i.e., reverberation mapping, RM) and directly reflect the structures and kinematic information of BLRs through the so-called transfer function (also known as the velocity-delay map). Based on the previous works of Rybicki and Press and Zu et al., we develop an extended, non-parametric approach to determine the transfer function for RM data, in which the transfer function ismore » expressed as a sum of a family of relatively displaced Gaussian response functions. Therefore, arbitrary shapes of transfer functions associated with complicated BLR geometry can be seamlessly included, enabling us to relax the presumption of a specified transfer function frequently adopted in previous studies and to let it be determined by observation data. We formulate our approach in a previously well-established framework that incorporates the statistical modeling of continuum variations as a damped random walk process and takes into account long-term secular variations which are irrelevant to RM signals. The application to RM data shows the fidelity of our approach.« less

Considering spatial heterogeneity in the distributed lag non-linear model when analyzing spatiotemporal data.

PubMed

Chien, Lung-Chang; Guo, Yuming; Li, Xiao; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2018-01-01

The distributed lag non-linear (DLNM) model has been frequently used in time series environmental health research. However, its functionality for assessing spatial heterogeneity is still restricted, especially in analyzing spatiotemporal data. This study proposed a solution to take a spatial function into account in the DLNM, and compared the influence with and without considering spatial heterogeneity in a case study. This research applied the DLNM to investigate non-linear lag effect up to 7 days in a case study about the spatiotemporal impact of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on preschool children's acute respiratory infection in 41 districts of northern Taiwan during 2005 to 2007. We applied two spatiotemporal methods to impute missing air pollutant data, and included the Markov random fields to analyze district boundary data in the DLNM. When analyzing the original data without a spatial function, the overall PM 2.5 effect accumulated from all lag-specific effects had a slight variation at smaller PM 2.5 measurements, but eventually decreased to relative risk significantly <1 when PM 2.5 increased. While analyzing spatiotemporal imputed data without a spatial function, the overall PM 2.5 effect did not decrease but increased in monotone as PM 2.5 increased over 20 μg/m 3 . After adding a spatial function in the DLNM, spatiotemporal imputed data conducted similar results compared with the overall effect from the original data. Moreover, the spatial function showed a clear and uneven pattern in Taipei, revealing that preschool children living in 31 districts of Taipei were vulnerable to acute respiratory infection. Our findings suggest the necessity of including a spatial function in the DLNM to make a spatiotemporal analysis available and to conduct more reliable and explainable research. This study also revealed the analytical impact if spatial heterogeneity is ignored.

Elevational Gradients in β-Diversity Reflect Variation in the Strength of Local Community Assembly Mechanisms across Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tello, J. Sebastián; Myers, Jonathan A.; Macía, Manuel J.; Fuentes, Alfredo F.; Cayola, Leslie; Arellano, Gabriel; Loza, M. Isabel; Torrez, Vania; Cornejo, Maritza; Miranda, Tatiana B.; Jørgensen, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Despite long-standing interest in elevational-diversity gradients, little is known about the processes that cause changes in the compositional variation of communities (β-diversity) across elevations. Recent studies have suggested that β-diversity gradients are driven by variation in species pools, rather than by variation in the strength of local community assembly mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, or local biotic interactions. However, tests of this hypothesis have been limited to very small spatial scales that limit inferences about how the relative importance of assembly mechanisms may change across spatial scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that scale-dependent community assembly mechanisms shape biogeographic β-diversity gradients using one of the most well-characterized elevational gradients of tropical plant diversity. Using an extensive dataset on woody plant distributions along a 4,000-m elevational gradient in the Bolivian Andes, we compared observed patterns of β-diversity to null-model expectations. β-deviations (standardized differences from null values) were used to measure the relative effects of local community assembly mechanisms after removing sampling effects caused by variation in species pools. To test for scale-dependency, we compared elevational gradients at two contrasting spatial scales that differed in the size of local assemblages and regions by at least an order of magnitude. Elevational gradients in β-diversity persisted after accounting for regional variation in species pools. Moreover, the elevational gradient in β-deviations changed with spatial scale. At small scales, local assembly mechanisms were detectable, but variation in species pools accounted for most of the elevational gradient in β-diversity. At large spatial scales, in contrast, local assembly mechanisms were a dominant force driving changes in β-diversity. In contrast to the hypothesis that variation in species pools alone drives β-diversity gradients, we show that local community assembly mechanisms contribute strongly to systematic changes in β-diversity across elevations. We conclude that scale-dependent variation in community assembly mechanisms underlies these iconic gradients in global biodiversity. PMID:25803846

Spatial coherence resonance and spatial pattern transition induced by the decrease of inhibitory effect in a neuronal network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ye; Gu, Huaguang; Ding, Xueli

2017-10-01

Spiral waves were observed in the biological experiment on rat brain cortex with the application of carbachol and bicuculline which can block inhibitory coupling from interneurons to pyramidal neurons. To simulate the experimental spiral waves, a two-dimensional neuronal network composed of pyramidal neurons and inhibitory interneurons was built. By decreasing the percentage of active inhibitory interneurons, the random-like spatial patterns change to spiral waves and to random-like spatial patterns or nearly synchronous behaviors. The spiral waves appear at a low percentage of inhibitory interneurons, which matches the experimental condition that inhibitory couplings of the interneurons were blocked. The spiral waves exhibit a higher order or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) characterized by spatial structure function than both random-like spatial patterns and nearly synchronous behaviors, which shows that changes of the percentage of active inhibitory interneurons can induce spatial coherence resonance-like behaviors. In addition, the relationship between the coherence degree and the spatial structures of the spiral waves is identified. The results not only present a possible and reasonable interpretation to the spiral waves observed in the biological experiment on the brain cortex with disinhibition, but also reveal that the spiral waves exhibit more ordered degree in spatial patterns.

Optical design of the lightning imager for MTG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzini, S.; Bardazzi, R.; Di Giampietro, M.; Feresin, F.; Taccola, M.; Cuevas, L. P.

2017-11-01

The Lightning Imager for Meteosat Third Generation is an optical payload with on-board data processing for the detection of lightning. The instrument will provide a global monitoring of lightning events over the full Earth disk from geostationary orbit and will operate in day and night conditions. The requirements of the large field of view together with the high detection efficiency with small and weak optical pulses superimposed to a much brighter and highly spatial and temporal variable background (full operation during day and night conditions, seasonal variations and different albedos between clouds oceans and lands) are driving the design of the optical instrument. The main challenge is to distinguish a true lightning from false events generated by random noise (e.g. background shot noise) or sun glints diffusion or signal variations originated by microvibrations. This can be achieved thanks to a `multi-dimensional' filtering, simultaneously working on the spectral, spatial and temporal domains. The spectral filtering is achieved with a very narrowband filter centred on the bright lightning O2 triplet line (777.4 nm +/- 0.17 nm). The spatial filtering is achieved with a ground sampling distance significantly smaller (between 4 and 5 km at sub satellite pointing) than the dimensions of a typical lightning pulse. The temporal filtering is achieved by sampling continuously the Earth disk within a period close to 1 ms. This paper presents the status of the optical design addressing the trade-off between different configurations and detailing the design and the analyses of the current baseline. Emphasis is given to the discussion of the design drivers and the solutions implemented in particular concerning the spectral filtering and the optimisation of the signal to noise ratio.

Multi-scale habitat selection in highly territorial bird species: Exploring the contribution of nest, territory and landscape levels to site choice in breeding rallids (Aves: Rallidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlikowski, Jan; Chibowski, Piotr; Karasek, Tomasz; Brambilla, Mattia

2016-05-01

Habitat selection often involves choices made at different spatial scales, but the underlying mechanisms are still poorly understood, and studies that investigate the relative importance of individual scales are rare. We investigated the effect of three spatial scales (landscape, territory, nest-site) on the occurrence pattern of little crake Zapornia parva and water rail Rallus aquaticus at 74 ponds in the Masurian Lakeland, Poland. Habitat structure, food abundance and water chemical parameters were measured at nests and random points within landscape plots (from 300-m to 50-m radius), territory (14-m) and nest-site plots (3-m). Regression analyses suggested that the most relevant scale was territory level, followed by landscape, and finally by nest-site for both species. Variation partitioning confirmed this pattern for water rail, but also highlighted the importance of nest-site (the level explaining the highest share of unique variation) for little crake. The most important variables determining the occurrence of both species were water body fragmentation (landscape), vegetation density (territory) and water depth (at territory level for little crake, and at nest-site level for water rail). Finally, for both species multi-scale models including factors from different levels were more parsimonious than single-scale ones, i.e. habitat selection was likely a multi-scale process. The importance of particular spatial scales seemed more related to life-history traits than to the extent of the scales considered. In the case of our study species, the territory level was highly important likely because both rallids have to obtain all the resources they need (nest site, food and mates) in relatively small areas, the multi-purpose territories they defend.

Comparing spatial regression to random forests for large environmental data sets

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental data may be “large” due to number of records, number of covariates, or both. Random forests has a reputation for good predictive performance when using many covariates, whereas spatial regression, when using reduced rank methods, has a reputatio...

Contrasting patterns of fine-scale herb layer species composition in temperate forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chudomelová, Markéta; Zelený, David; Li, Ching-Feng

2017-04-01

Although being well described at the landscape level, patterns in species composition of forest herb layer are rarely studied at smaller scales. Here, we examined fine-scale environmental determinants and spatial structures of herb layer communities in thermophilous oak- and hornbeam dominated forests of the south-eastern part of the Czech Republic. Species composition of herb layer vegetation and environmental variables were recorded within a fixed grid of 2 × 2 m subplots regularly distributed within 1-ha quadrate plots in three forest stands. For each site, environmental models best explaining species composition were constructed using constrained ordination analysis. Spatial eigenvector mapping was used to model and account for spatial structures in community variation. Mean Ellenberg indicator values calculated for each subplot were used for ecological interpretation of spatially structured residual variation. The amount of variation explained by environmental and spatial models as well as the selection of variables with the best explanatory power differed among sites. As an important environmental factor, relative elevation was common to all three sites, while pH and canopy openness were shared by two sites. Both environmental and community variation was mostly coarse-scaled, as was the spatially structured portion of residual variation. When corrected for bias due to spatial autocorrelation, those environmental factors with already weak explanatory power lost their significance. Only a weak evidence of possibly omitted environmental predictor was found for autocorrelated residuals of site models using mean Ellenberg indicator values. Community structure was determined by different factors at different sites. The relative importance of environmental filtering vs. spatial processes was also site specific, implying that results of fine-scale studies tend to be shaped by local conditions. Contrary to expectations based on other studies, overall dominance of spatial processes at fine scale has not been detected. Ecologists should keep this in mind when making generalizations about community dynamics.

Variation in soil carbon dioxide efflux at two spatial scales in a topographically complex boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, Katharine C.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Neff, Jason C.

2012-01-01

Carbon dynamics of high-latitude regions are an important and highly uncertain component of global carbon budgets, and efforts to constrain estimates of soil-atmosphere carbon exchange in these regions are contingent on accurate representations of spatial and temporal variability in carbon fluxes. This study explores spatial and temporal variability in soilatmosphere carbon dynamics at both fine and coarse spatial scales in a high-elevation, permafrost-dominated boreal black spruce forest. We evaluate the importance of landscape-level investigations of soil-atmosphere carbon dynamics by characterizing seasonal trends in soil-atmosphere carbon exchange, describing soil temperature-moisture-respiration relations, and quantifying temporal and spatial variability at two spatial scales: the plot scale (0–5 m) and the landscape scale (500–1000 m). Plot-scale spatial variability (average variation on a given measurement day) in soil CO2 efflux ranged from a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.25 to 0.69, and plot-scale temporal variability (average variation of plots across measurement days) in efflux ranged from a CV of 0.19 to 0.36. Landscape-scale spatial and temporal variability in efflux was represented by a CV of 0.40 and 0.31, respectively, indicating that plot-scale spatial variability in soil respiration is as great as landscape-scale spatial variability at this site. While soil respiration was related to soil temperature at both the plot- and landscape scale, landscape-level descriptions of soil moisture were necessary to define soil respiration-moisture relations. Soil moisture variability was also integral to explaining temporal variability in soil respiration. Our results have important implications for research efforts in high-latitude regions where remote study sites make landscape-scale field campaigns challenging.

Predictors of occurrence of the aquatic macrophyte Podostemum ceratophyllum in a southern Appalachian River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Freeman, Mary C.; Freeman, Byron J.

2010-01-01

The aquatic macrophyte Podostemum ceratophyllum (Hornleaf Riverweed) commonly provides habitat for invertebrates and fishes in flowing-water portions of Piedmont and Appalachian streams in the eastern US. We quantified variation in percent cover by P. ceratophyllum in a 39-km reach of the Conasauga River, TN and GA, to test the hypothesis that cover decreased with increasing non-forest land use. We estimated percent P. ceratophyllum cover in quadrats (0.09 m2) placed at random coordinates within 20 randomly selected shoals. We then used hierarchical logistic regression, in an information-theoretic framework, to evaluate relative support for models incorporating alternative combinations of microhabitat and shoal-level variables to predict the occurrence of high (≥50%)P. ceratophyllum cover. As expected, bed sediment size and measures of light availability (location in the center of the channel, canopy cover) were included in best-supported models and had similar estimated-effect sizes across models. Podostemum ceratophyllum cover declined with increasing watershed size (included in 8 of 13 models in the confidence set of models); however, this decrease in cover was not well predicted by variation in land use. Focused monitoring of temporal and spatial trends in status of P. ceratophyllum are important due to its biotic importance in fast-flowing waters and its potential sensitivity to landscape-level changes, such as declines in forested land cover and homogenization of benthic habitats.

Correlated errors in geodetic time series: Implications for time-dependent deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, J.; Johnson, H.

1997-01-01

Analysis of frequent trilateration observations from the two-color electronic distance measuring networks in California demonstrate that the noise power spectra are dominated by white noise at higher frequencies and power law behavior at lower frequencies. In contrast, Earth scientists typically have assumed that only white noise is present in a geodetic time series, since a combination of infrequent measurements and low precision usually preclude identifying the time-correlated signature in such data. After removing a linear trend from the two-color data, it becomes evident that there are primarily two recognizable types of time-correlated noise present in the residuals. The first type is a seasonal variation in displacement which is probably a result of measuring to shallow surface monuments installed in clayey soil which responds to seasonally occurring rainfall; this noise is significant only for a small fraction of the sites analyzed. The second type of correlated noise becomes evident only after spectral analysis of line length changes and shows a functional relation at long periods between power and frequency of and where f is frequency and ?? ??? 2. With ?? = 2, this type of correlated noise is termed random-walk noise, and its source is mainly thought to be small random motions of geodetic monuments with respect to the Earth's crust, though other sources are possible. Because the line length changes in the two-color networks are measured at irregular intervals, power spectral techniques cannot reliably estimate the level of I//" noise. Rather, we also use here a maximum likelihood estimation technique which assumes that there are only two sources of noise in the residual time series (white noise and randomwalk noise) and estimates the amount of each. From this analysis we find that the random-walk noise level averages about 1.3 mm/Vyr and that our estimates of the white noise component confirm theoretical limitations of the measurement technique. In addition, the seasonal noise can be as large as 3 mm in amplitude but typically is less than 0.5 mm. Because of the presence of random-walk noise in these time series, modeling and interpretation of the geodetic data must account for this source of error. By way of example we show that estimating the time-varying strain tensor (a form of spatial averaging) from geodetic data having both random-walk and white noise error components results in seemingly significant variations in the rate of strain accumulation; spatial averaging does reduce the size of both noise components but not their relative influence on the resulting strain accumulation model. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Environment-dependent variation in selection on life history across small spatial scales.

PubMed

Lange, Rolanda; Monro, Keyne; J Marshall, Dustin

2016-10-01

Variation in life-history traits is ubiquitous, even though genetic variation is thought to be depleted by selection. One potential mechanism for the maintenance of trait variation is spatially variable selection. We explored spatial variation in selection in the field for a colonial marine invertebrate that shows phenotypic differences across a depth gradient of only 3 m. Our analysis included life-history traits relating to module size, colony growth, and phenology. Directional selection on colony growth varied in strength across depths, while module size was under directional selection at one depth but not the other. Differences in selection may explain some of the observed phenotypic differentiation among depths for one trait but not another: instead, selection should actually erode the differences observed for this trait. Our results suggest selection is not acting alone to maintain trait variation within and across environments in this system. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Demographic controls of aboveground forest biomass across North America.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Zeng, Hongcheng; Caspersen, John P; Kunstler, Georges; Lichstein, Jeremy W

2016-04-01

Ecologists have limited understanding of how geographic variation in forest biomass arises from differences in growth and mortality at continental to global scales. Using forest inventories from across North America, we partitioned continental-scale variation in biomass growth and mortality rates of 49 tree species groups into (1) species-independent spatial effects and (2) inherent differences in demographic performance among species. Spatial factors that were separable from species composition explained 83% and 51% of the respective variation in growth and mortality. Moderate additional variation in mortality (26%) was attributable to differences in species composition. Age-dependent biomass models showed that variation in forest biomass can be explained primarily by spatial gradients in growth that were unrelated to species composition. Species-dependent patterns of mortality explained additional variation in biomass, with forests supporting less biomass when dominated by species that are highly susceptible to competition (e.g. Populus spp.) or to biotic disturbances (e.g. Abies balsamea). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Analysis of PVA/AA based photopolymers at the zero spatial frequency limit using interferometric methods.

PubMed

Gallego, Sergi; Márquez, Andrés; Méndez, David; Ortuño, Manuel; Neipp, Cristian; Fernández, Elena; Pascual, Inmaculada; Beléndez, Augusto

2008-05-10

One of the problems associated with photopolymers as optical recording media is the thickness variation during the recording process. Different values of shrinkages or swelling are reported in the literature for photopolymers. Furthermore, these variations depend on the spatial frequencies of the gratings stored in the materials. Thickness variations can be measured using different methods: studying the deviation from the Bragg's angle for nonslanted gratings, using MicroXAM S/N 8038 interferometer, or by the thermomechanical analysis experiments. In a previous paper, we began the characterization of the properties of a polyvinyl alcohol/acrylamide based photopolymer at the lowest end of recorded spatial frequencies. In this work, we continue analyzing the thickness variations of these materials using a reflection interferometer. With this technique we are able to obtain the variations of the layers refractive index and, therefore, a direct estimation of the polymer refractive index.

Spectral statistics of random geometric graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmann, C. P.; Georgiou, O.; Knight, G.

2017-04-01

We use random matrix theory to study the spectrum of random geometric graphs, a fundamental model of spatial networks. Considering ensembles of random geometric graphs we look at short-range correlations in the level spacings of the spectrum via the nearest-neighbour and next-nearest-neighbour spacing distribution and long-range correlations via the spectral rigidity Δ3 statistic. These correlations in the level spacings give information about localisation of eigenvectors, level of community structure and the level of randomness within the networks. We find a parameter-dependent transition between Poisson and Gaussian orthogonal ensemble statistics. That is the spectral statistics of spatial random geometric graphs fits the universality of random matrix theory found in other models such as Erdős-Rényi, Barabási-Albert and Watts-Strogatz random graphs.

Effect of assessment scale on spatial and temporal variations in CH4, C02, and N20 fluxes in a forested wetland

Treesearch

Zhaohua Dai; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li; Ge Sun; Devendra Amatya

2011-01-01

Emissions of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from a forested watershed (160 ha) in South Carolina, USA, were estimated with a spatially explicit watershed-scale modeling framework that utilizes the spatial variations in physical and biogeochemical characteristics across watersheds. The target watershed (WS80) consisting of wetland (23%) and...

Evaluation of seasonal and spatial variations of lumped water balance model sensitivity to precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chong-yu; Tunemar, Liselotte; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, V. P.

2006-06-01

Sensitivity of hydrological models to input data errors have been reported in the literature for particular models on a single or a few catchments. A more important issue, i.e. how model's response to input data error changes as the catchment conditions change has not been addressed previously. This study investigates the seasonal and spatial effects of precipitation data errors on the performance of conceptual hydrological models. For this study, a monthly conceptual water balance model, NOPEX-6, was applied to 26 catchments in the Mälaren basin in Central Sweden. Both systematic and random errors were considered. For the systematic errors, 5-15% of mean monthly precipitation values were added to the original precipitation to form the corrupted input scenarios. Random values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation and were assumed to be (1) independent between months, and (2) distributed according to a Gaussian law of zero mean and constant standard deviation that were taken as 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25% of the mean monthly standard deviation of precipitation. The results show that the response of the model parameters and model performance depends, among others, on the type of the error, the magnitude of the error, physical characteristics of the catchment, and the season of the year. In particular, the model appears less sensitive to the random error than to the systematic error. The catchments with smaller values of runoff coefficients were more influenced by input data errors than were the catchments with higher values. Dry months were more sensitive to precipitation errors than were wet months. Recalibration of the model with erroneous data compensated in part for the data errors by altering the model parameters.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PubMed

Kropat, Georg; Bochud, Francois; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Laedermann, Jean-Pascal; Murith, Christophe; Palacios Gruson, Martha; Baechler, Sébastien

2015-09-01

According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Distribution of Phase Singularities in Optical Random Vector Waves.

PubMed

De Angelis, L; Alpeggiani, F; Di Falco, A; Kuipers, L

2016-08-26

Phase singularities are dislocations widely studied in optical fields as well as in other areas of physics. With experiment and theory we show that the vectorial nature of light affects the spatial distribution of phase singularities in random light fields. While in scalar random waves phase singularities exhibit spatial distributions reminiscent of particles in isotropic liquids, in vector fields their distribution for the different vector components becomes anisotropic due to the direct relation between propagation and field direction. By incorporating this relation in the theory for scalar fields by Berry and Dennis [Proc. R. Soc. A 456, 2059 (2000)], we quantitatively describe our experiments.

A New Global LAI Product and Its Use for Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Liu, R.; Ju, W.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

For improving the estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a new time series of the leaf area index (LAI) is generated for the global land surface at 8 km resolution from 1981 to 2012 by combining AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. This product differs from existing LAI products in the following two aspects: (1) the non-random spatial distribution of leaves with the canopy is considered, and (2) the seasonal variation of the vegetation background is included. The non-randomness of the leaf spatial distribution in the canopy is considered using the second vegetation structural parameter named clumping index (CI), which quantifies the deviation of the leaf spatial distribution from the random case. Using the MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function product, a global map of CI is produced at 500 m resolution. In our LAI algorithm, CI is used to convert the effective LAI obtained from mono-angle remote sensing into the true LAI, otherwise LAI would be considerably underestimated. The vegetation background is soil in crop, grass and shrub but includes soil, grass, moss, and litter in forests. Through processing a large volume of MISR data from 2000 to 2010, monthly red and near-infrared reflectances of the vegetation background is mapped globally at 1 km resolution. This new LAI product has been validated extensively using ground-based LAI measurements distributed globally. In carbon cycle modeling, the use of CI in addition to LAI allows for accurate separation of sunlit and shaded leaves as an important step in terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration modeling. Carbon flux measurements over 100 sites over the globe are used to validate an ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The validated model is run globally at 8 km resolution for the period from 1981 to 2012 using the LAI product and other spatial datasets. The modeled results suggest that changes in vegetation structure as quantified by LAI do not contribute significantly to the increasing trend in carbon sink over the last 32 years. The increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are found to be the major causes for the increases in plant productivity and carbon sink over the last 32 years.

The roles of convective entrainment in spatial distributions and temporal variations of precipitation over tropical oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.; Watanabe, M.; Kimoto, M.; Chikira, M.

2013-12-01

This study shows that a proper treatment of convective entrainment is essential in determining spatial distributions and temporal variations of precipitation by numerical experiments. They have performed and compared four experiments with different entrainment characteristics: a control (Ctl), no entrainment (NoEnt), original Arakawa Schubert (AS), and AS with simple empirical suppression of convection (ASRH). The fractional entrainment rate of AS and ASRH are constant for each cloud type and are very small near cloud base compared to Ctl, in which half of buoyancy-generated energy is consumed by the entrainment. Ctl well reproduces the spatial and temporal variations, whereas NoEnt and AS, which are very similar to each other, significantly underestimated the variations with the so-called the double ITCZ problem. The enhanced variations in Ctl are due to the larger entrainment that strengthens the coupling of convection and free tropospheric humidity. Time variations are also more realistic in Ctl; mid-height convection moistens mid-troposphere and large precipitation events occur after sufficient moisture is available. In contrast, deep convection is more frequent but with smaller precipitation amount in NoEnt and AS. ASRH shows smaller spatial but excessive temporal variations suggesting that its empirical suppression condition is too simple and a more sophisticated formulation is required for more realistic precipitation variations. This study was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (GRENE), and by the Ministry of the Environment (2A-1201), Japan.

Spatial Analysis of “Crazy Quilts”, a Class of Potentially Random Aesthetic Artefacts

PubMed Central

Westphal-Fitch, Gesche; Fitch, W. Tecumseh

2013-01-01

Human artefacts in general are highly structured and often display ordering principles such as translational, reflectional or rotational symmetry. In contrast, human artefacts that are intended to appear random and non symmetrical are very rare. Furthermore, many studies show that humans find it extremely difficult to recognize or reproduce truly random patterns or sequences. Here, we attempt to model two-dimensional decorative spatial patterns produced by humans that show no obvious order. “Crazy quilts” represent a historically important style of quilt making that became popular in the 1870s, and lasted about 50 years. Crazy quilts are unusual because unlike most human artefacts, they are specifically intended to appear haphazard and unstructured. We evaluate the degree to which this intention was achieved by using statistical techniques of spatial point pattern analysis to compare crazy quilts with regular quilts from the same region and era and to evaluate the fit of various random distributions to these two quilt classes. We found that the two quilt categories exhibit fundamentally different spatial characteristics: The patch areas of crazy quilts derive from a continuous random distribution, while area distributions of regular quilts consist of Gaussian mixtures. These Gaussian mixtures derive from regular pattern motifs that are repeated and we suggest that such a mixture is a distinctive signature of human-made visual patterns. In contrast, the distribution found in crazy quilts is shared with many other naturally occurring spatial patterns. Centroids of patches in the two quilt classes are spaced differently and in general, crazy quilts but not regular quilts are well-fitted by a random Strauss process. These results indicate that, within the constraints of the quilt format, Victorian quilters indeed achieved their goal of generating random structures. PMID:24066095

Spatial analysis of "crazy quilts", a class of potentially random aesthetic artefacts.

PubMed

Westphal-Fitch, Gesche; Fitch, W Tecumseh

2013-01-01

Human artefacts in general are highly structured and often display ordering principles such as translational, reflectional or rotational symmetry. In contrast, human artefacts that are intended to appear random and non symmetrical are very rare. Furthermore, many studies show that humans find it extremely difficult to recognize or reproduce truly random patterns or sequences. Here, we attempt to model two-dimensional decorative spatial patterns produced by humans that show no obvious order. "Crazy quilts" represent a historically important style of quilt making that became popular in the 1870s, and lasted about 50 years. Crazy quilts are unusual because unlike most human artefacts, they are specifically intended to appear haphazard and unstructured. We evaluate the degree to which this intention was achieved by using statistical techniques of spatial point pattern analysis to compare crazy quilts with regular quilts from the same region and era and to evaluate the fit of various random distributions to these two quilt classes. We found that the two quilt categories exhibit fundamentally different spatial characteristics: The patch areas of crazy quilts derive from a continuous random distribution, while area distributions of regular quilts consist of Gaussian mixtures. These Gaussian mixtures derive from regular pattern motifs that are repeated and we suggest that such a mixture is a distinctive signature of human-made visual patterns. In contrast, the distribution found in crazy quilts is shared with many other naturally occurring spatial patterns. Centroids of patches in the two quilt classes are spaced differently and in general, crazy quilts but not regular quilts are well-fitted by a random Strauss process. These results indicate that, within the constraints of the quilt format, Victorian quilters indeed achieved their goal of generating random structures.

Uncertainty in Random Forests: What does it mean in a spatial context?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klump, Jens; Fouedjio, Francky

2017-04-01

Geochemical surveys are an important part of exploration for mineral resources and in environmental studies. The samples and chemical analyses are often laborious and difficult to obtain and therefore come at a high cost. As a consequence, these surveys are characterised by datasets with large numbers of variables but relatively few data points when compared to conventional big data problems. With more remote sensing platforms and sensor networks being deployed, large volumes of auxiliary data of the surveyed areas are becoming available. The use of these auxiliary data has the potential to improve the prediction of chemical element concentrations over the whole study area. Kriging is a well established geostatistical method for the prediction of spatial data but requires significant pre-processing and makes some basic assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. Some machine learning algorithms, on the other hand, may require less data pre-processing and are non-parametric. In this study we used a dataset provided by Kirkwood et al. [1] to explore the potential use of Random Forest in geochemical mapping. We chose Random Forest because it is a well understood machine learning method and has the advantage that it provides us with a measure of uncertainty. By comparing Random Forest to Kriging we found that both methods produced comparable maps of estimated values for our variables of interest. Kriging outperformed Random Forest for variables of interest with relatively strong spatial correlation. The measure of uncertainty provided by Random Forest seems to be quite different to the measure of uncertainty provided by Kriging. In particular, the lack of spatial context can give misleading results in areas without ground truth data. In conclusion, our preliminary results show that the model driven approach in geostatistics gives us more reliable estimates for our target variables than Random Forest for variables with relatively strong spatial correlation. However, in cases of weak spatial correlation Random Forest, as a nonparametric method, may give the better results once we have a better understanding of the meaning of its uncertainty measures in a spatial context. References [1] Kirkwood, C., M. Cave, D. Beamish, S. Grebby, and A. Ferreira (2016), A machine learning approach to geochemical mapping, Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 163, 28-40, doi:10.1016/j.gexplo.2016.05.003.

Spatial variation of the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Lublin in specified weather scenarios / Zróżnicowanie przestrzenne wskaźnika UTCI w Lublinie w określonych scenariuszach pogodowych

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobek, Mateusz; Demczuk, Piotr; Nowosad, Marek

2013-06-01

Due to the diversified land relief and presence of numerous gorge dissections intensively used by man largely for recreational purposes, Lublin is a valuable study area in terms of bioclimatology. The results of modelling of the variation of the bioclimatic conditions of Lublin provide information useful e.g. in the economy and spatial planning. The determined features of the city's bioclimate can be a significant element in the selection of locations for new residential and recreational investments. Knowledge on the spatial variation of biometeorological situations positively and negatively influencing the human organism can also find application in activities concerning the improvement of life quality and health protection, as well as in tourism and recreation. The objective of the paper is to present the spatial variation of biometeorological conditions in Lublin based on the example of specified weather scenarios.

A simple way to model nebulae with distributed ionizing stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamet, L.; Morisset, C.

2008-04-01

Aims: This work is a follow-up of a recent article by Ercolano et al. that shows that, in some cases, the spatial dispersion of the ionizing stars in a given nebula may significantly affect its emission spectrum. The authors found that the dispersion of the ionizing stars is accompanied by a decrease in the ionization parameter, which at least partly explains the variations in the nebular spectrum. However, they did not research how other effects associated to the dispersion of the stars may contribute to those variations. Furthermore, they made use of a unique and simplified set of stellar populations. The scope of the present article is to assess whether the variation in the ionization parameter is the dominant effect in the dependence of the nebular spectrum on the distribution of its ionizing stars. We examined this possibility for various regimes of metallicity and age. We also investigated a way to model the distribution of the ionizing sources so as to bypass expensive calculations. Methods: We wrote a code able to generate random stellar populations and to compute the emission spectra of their associated nebulae through the widespread photoionization code cloudy. This code can process two kinds of spatial distributions of the stars: one where all the stars are concentrated at one point, and one where their separation is such that their Strömgren spheres do not overlap. Results: We found that, in most regimes of stellar population ages and gas metallicities, the dependence of the ionization parameter on the distribution of the stars is the dominant factor in the variation of the main nebular diagnostics with this distribution. We derived a method to mimic those effects with a single calculation that makes use of the common assumptions of a central source and a spherical nebula, in the case of constant density objects. This represents a computation time saving by a factor of at least several dozen in the case of H ii regions ionized by massive clusters.

Restricted spatial regression in practice: Geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Schliep, Erin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

2015-01-01

In spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs), covariates that are spatially smooth are often collinear with spatially smooth random effects. This phenomenon is known as spatial confounding and has been studied primarily in the case where the spatial support of the process being studied is discrete (e.g., areal spatial data). In this case, the most common approach suggested is restricted spatial regression (RSR) in which the spatial random effects are constrained to be orthogonal to the fixed effects. We consider spatial confounding and RSR in the geostatistical (continuous spatial support) setting. We show that RSR provides computational benefits relative to the confounded SGLMM, but that Bayesian credible intervals under RSR can be inappropriately narrow under model misspecification. We propose a posterior predictive approach to alleviating this potential problem and discuss the appropriateness of RSR in a variety of situations. We illustrate RSR and SGLMM approaches through simulation studies and an analysis of malaria frequencies in The Gambia, Africa.

Life-history implications of large-scale spatial variation in adult survival of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Chelgren, Nathan; Lindberg, Mark S.; Obritchkewitch, Tim; Kirk, Morgan T.; Martin, Philip D.; Anderson, Betty A.; Ward, David H.

2002-01-01

We used capture-recapture methods to estimate adult survival rates for adult female Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter “brant”) from three colonies in Alaska, two on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, and one on Alaska's Arctic coast. Costs of migration and reproductive effort varied among those colonies, enabling us to examine variation in survival in relation to variation in these other variables. We used the Barker model in program MARK to estimate true annual survival for brant from the three colonies. Models allowing for spatial variation in survival were among the most parsimonious models but were indistinguishable from a model with no spatial variation. Point estimates of annual survival were slightly higher for brant from the Arctic (0.90 ± 0.036) than for brant from either Tutakoke River (0.85 ± 0.004) or Kokechik Bay (0.86 ± 0.011). Thus, our survival estimates do not support a hypothesis that the cost of longer migrations or harvest experienced by brant from the Arctic reduced their annual survival relative to brant from the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Spatial variation in survival provides weak support for life-history theory because brant from the region with lower reproductive investment had slightly higher survival.

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

Natural habitats matter: Determinants of spatial pattern in the composition of animal assemblages of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divíšek, Jan; Zelený, David; Culek, Martin; Št'astný, Karel

2014-08-01

Studies that explore species-environment relationships at a broad scale are usually limited by the availability of sufficient habitat description, which is often too coarse to differentiate natural habitat patches. Therefore, it is not well understood how the distribution of natural habitats affects broad-scale patterns in the distribution of animal species. In this study, we evaluate the role of field-mapped natural habitats, land-cover types derived from remote sensing and climate on the composition of assemblages of five distinct animal groups, namely non-volant mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and butterflies native to the Czech Republic. First, we used variation partitioning based on redundancy analysis to evaluate the extent to which the environmental variables and their spatial structure might underlie the observed spatial patterns in the composition of animal assemblages. Second, we partitioned variations explained by climate, natural habitats and land-cover to compare their relative importance. Finally, we tested the independent effects of each variable in order to evaluate the significance of their contributions to the environmental model. Our results showed that spatial patterns in the composition of assemblages of almost all the considered animal groups may be ascribed mostly to variations in the environment. Although the shared effects of climatic variables, natural habitats and land-cover types explained the largest proportion of variation in each animal group, the variation explained purely by natural habitats was always higher than the variation explained purely by climate or land-cover. We conclude that most spatial variation in the composition of assemblages of almost all animal groups probably arises from biological processes operating within a spatially structured environment and suggest that natural habitats are important to explain observed patterns because they often perform better than habitat descriptions based on remote sensing. This underlines the value of using appropriate habitat data, for which high-resolution and large-area field-mapping projects are necessary.

Variation of ecosystem services and human activities: A case study in the Yanhe Watershed of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Chang-hong; Fu, Bo-Jie; He, Chan-Sheng; Lü, Yi-He

2012-10-01

The concept of 'ecosystem service' provides cohesive views on mechanisms by which nature contributes to human well-being. Fast social and economic development calls for research on interactions between human and natural systems. We took the Yanhe Watershed as our study area, and valued the variation of ecosystem services and human activities of 2000 and 2008. Five ecosystem services were selected i.e. net primary production (NPP), carbon sequestration and oxygen production (CSOP), water conservation, soil conservation, and grain production. Human activity was represented by a composite human activity index (HAI) that integrates human population density, farmland ratio, influence of residential sites and road network. Analysis results of the five ecosystem services and human activity (HAI) are as follows: (i) NPP, CSOP, water conservation, and soil conservation increased from 2000 to 2008, while grain production declined. HAI decreased from 2000 to 2008. Spatially, NPP, CSOP, and water conservation in 2000 and 2008 roughly demonstrated a pattern of decline from south to north, while grain production shows an endocentric increasing spatial pattern. Soil conservation showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north in 2000 and a different pattern of high in the west and low in the east in 2008 respectively. HAI is proportional to the administrative level and economic development. Variation of NPP/CSOP between 2000 and 2008 show an increasing spatial pattern from northwest to southeast. In contrast, the variation of soil conservation shows an increasing pattern from southeast to northwest. Variation of water conservation shows a fanning out decreasing pattern. Variation of grain production doesn't show conspicuous spatial pattern. (ii) Variation of water conservation and of soil conservation is significantly positively correlated at 0.01 level. Both variations of water conservation and soil conservation are negatively correlated with variation of HAI at 0.01 level. Variations of NPP/CSOP are negatively correlated with variations of soil conservation and grain production at 0.05 level. (iii) Strong tradeoffs exist between regulation services and provision service, while synergies exist within regulation services. Driving effect of human activities on ecosystem services and tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem service are also discussed.

Activity spaces of men who have sex with men: An initial exploration of geographic variation in locations of routine, potential sexual risk, and prevention behaviors.

PubMed

Vaughan, Adam S; Kramer, Michael R; Cooper, Hannah L F; Rosenberg, Eli S; Sullivan, Patrick S

2017-02-01

Theory and research on HIV and among men who have sex with men (MSM) have long suggested the importance of non-residential locations in defining structural exposures. Despite this, most studies within these fields define place as a residential context, neglecting the potential influence of non-residential locations on HIV-related outcomes. The concept of activity spaces, defined as a set of locations to which an individual is routinely exposed, represents one theoretical basis for addressing this potential imbalance. Using a one-time online survey to collect demographic, behavioral, and spatial data from MSM, this paper describes activity spaces and examines correlates of this spatial variation. We used latent class analysis to identify categories of activity spaces using spatial data on home, routine, potential sexual risk, and HIV prevention locations. We then assessed individual and area-level covariates for their associations with these categories. Classes were distinguished by the degree of spatial variation in routine and prevention behaviors (which were the same within each class) and in sexual risk behaviors (i.e., sex locations and locations of meeting sex partners). Partner type (e.g. casual or main) represented a key correlate of the activity space. In this early examination of activity spaces in an online sample of MSM, patterns of spatial behavior represent further evidence of significant spatial variation in locations of routine, potential HIV sexual risk, and HIV prevention behaviors among MSM. Although prevention behaviors tend to have similar geographic variation as routine behaviors, locations where men engage in potentially high-risk behaviors may be more spatially focused for some MSM than for others. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and seasonal variations of leaf area index (LAI) in subtropical secondary forests related to floristic composition and stand characters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wenjuan; Xiang, Wenhua; Pan, Qiong; Zeng, Yelin; Ouyang, Shuai; Lei, Pifeng; Deng, Xiangwen; Fang, Xi; Peng, Changhui

2016-07-01

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important parameter related to carbon, water, and energy exchange between canopy and atmosphere and is widely applied in process models that simulate production and hydrological cycles in forest ecosystems. However, fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of LAI and its controlling factors have yet to be fully understood in Chinese subtropical forests. We used hemispherical photography to measure LAI values in three subtropical forests (Pinus massoniana-Lithocarpus glaber coniferous and evergreen broadleaved mixed forests, Choerospondias axillaris deciduous broadleaved forests, and L. glaber-Cyclobalanopsis glauca evergreen broadleaved forests) from April 2014 to January 2015. Spatial heterogeneity of LAI and its controlling factors were analysed using geostatistical methods and the generalised additive models (GAMs) respectively. Our results showed that LAI values differed greatly in the three forests and their seasonal variations were consistent with plant phenology. LAI values exhibited strong spatial autocorrelation for the three forests measured in January and for the L. glaber-C. glauca forest in April, July, and October. Obvious patch distribution pattern of LAI values occurred in three forests during the non-growing period and this pattern gradually dwindled in the growing season. Stem number, crown coverage, proportion of evergreen conifer species on basal area basis, proportion of deciduous species on basal area basis, and forest types affected the spatial variations in LAI values in January, while stem number and proportion of deciduous species on basal area basis affected the spatial variations in LAI values in July. Floristic composition, spatial heterogeneity, and seasonal variations should be considered for sampling strategy in indirect LAI measurement and application of LAI to simulate functional processes in subtropical forests.

Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

1980-01-01

Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

Density and distribution of nitrifying guilds in rapid sand filters for drinking water production: Dominance of Nitrospira spp.

PubMed

Tatari, Karolina; Musovic, Sanin; Gülay, Arda; Dechesne, Arnaud; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Smets, Barth F

2017-12-15

We investigated the density and distribution of total bacteria, canonical Ammonia Oxidizing Bacteria (AOB) (Nitrosomonas plus Nitrosospira), Ammonia Oxidizing Archaea (AOA), as well as Nitrobacter and Nitrospira in rapid sand filters used for groundwater treatment. To investigate the spatial distribution of these guilds, filter material was sampled at four drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) in parallel filters of the pre- and after-filtration stages at different locations and depths. The target guilds were quantified by qPCR targeting 16S rRNA and amoA genes. Total bacterial densities (ignoring 16S rRNA gene copy number variation) were high and ranged from 10 9 to 10 10 per gram (10 15 to 10 16 per m 3 ) of filter material. All examined guilds, except AOA, were stratified at only one of the four DWTPs. Densities varied spatially within filter (intra-filter variation) at two of the DWTPs and in parallel filters (inter-filter variation) at one of the DWTPs. Variation analysis revealed random sampling as the most efficient strategy to yield accurate mean density estimates, with collection of at least 7 samples suggested to obtain an acceptable (below half order of magnitude) density precision. Nitrospira was consistently the most dominant guild (5-10% of total community), and was generally up to 4 orders of magnitude more abundant than Nitrobacter and up to 2 orders of magnitude more abundant than canonical AOBs. These results, supplemented with further analysis of the previously reported diversity of Nitrospira in the studied DWTPs based on 16S rRNA and nxrB gene phylogeny (Gülay et al., 2016; Palomo et al., 2016), indicate that the high Nitrospira abundance is due to their comammox (complete ammonia oxidation) physiology. AOA densities were lower than AOB densities, except in the highly stratified filters, where they were of similar abundance. In conclusion, rapid sand filters are microbially dense, with varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity, which requires replicate sampling for a sufficiently precise determination of total microbial community and specific population densities. A consistently high Nitrospira to bacterial and archaeal AOB density ratio suggests that non-canonical pathways for nitrification may dominate the examined RSFs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean Processes Revealing by Seasonal Dynamics of Surface Chlorophyll Concentration (by Satellite Data)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Vysotskaya, Galina

Continuous monitoring of phytopigment concentrations in the ocean by space-borne methods makes possible to estimate ecological condition of biocenoses in critical areas. Unlike land vege-tation, hydrological processes largely determine phytoplankton dynamics, which may be either recurrent or random. The types of chlorophyll concentration dynamics can manifest as zones quasistationary by seasonal chlorophyll dynamics, perennial variations of phytopigment con-centrations, anomalous variations, etc., that makes possible revealing of hydrological structure of the ocean. While large-scale and frequently occurring phenomena have been much studied, the seldom-occurring changes of small size may be of interest for analysis of long-term processes and rare natural variations. Along with this, the ability to reflect consequences of anthropoge-nous impact or natural ecological disasters on the ocean biota makes the anomalous variations ecologically essential. Civilization aspiring for steady development and preservation of the bio-sphere, must have the knowledge of spatial distribution, seasonal dynamics and anomalies of the primary production process on the planet. In the papers of the authors (Shevyrnogov A.P., Vysotskaya G.S., Gitelzon J.I. Quasistationary areas of chlorophyll concentration in the world ocean as observed satellite data. Adv. Space Res. Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 129-132, 1996) existence of zones, which are quasi-stationary with similar seasonal dynamics of chlorophyll concentration at surface layer of ocean, was shown. Results were obtained on the base of pro-cessing of time series of satellite images SeaWiFS. It was shown that fronts and frontal zones coincide with dividing lines between quasi-stationary areas, especially in areas of large oceanic streams. Biota of surface oceanic layer is more stable in comparison with quickly changing sur-face temperature. It gives a possibility to circumvent influence of high-frequency component (for example, a diurnal cycle) in investigation of dynamics of spatial distribution of surface streams. In addition, an analyses of nonstable ocean productivity phenomena, stood out time series of satellite images, showed existence of areas with different types of instability in the all Global ocean. They are observed as adjacent nonstationary zones of different size, which are associated by different ways with known oceanic phenomena. It is evident that dynamics of a spatial distribution of biological productivity can give an additional knowledge of complicated picture of surface oceanic layer hydrology.

Complex mountain terrain and disturbance history drive variation in forest aboveground live carbon density in the western Oregon Cascades, USA

PubMed Central

Zald, Harold S.J.; Spies, Thomas A.; Seidl, Rupert; Pabst, Robert J.; Olsen, Keith A.; Steel, E. Ashley

2016-01-01

Forest carbon (C) density varies tremendously across space due to the inherent heterogeneity of forest ecosystems. Variation of forest C density is especially pronounced in mountainous terrain, where environmental gradients are compressed and vary at multiple spatial scales. Additionally, the influence of environmental gradients may vary with forest age and developmental stage, an important consideration as forest landscapes often have a diversity of stand ages from past management and other disturbance agents. Quantifying forest C density and its underlying environmental determinants in mountain terrain has remained challenging because many available data sources lack the spatial grain and ecological resolution needed at both stand and landscape scales. The objective of this study was to determine if environmental factors influencing aboveground live carbon (ALC) density differed between young versus old forests. We integrated aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) data with 702 field plots to map forest ALC density at a grain of 25 m across the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a 6369 ha watershed in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA. We used linear regressions, random forest ensemble learning (RF) and sequential autoregressive modeling (SAR) to reveal how mapped forest ALC density was related to climate, topography, soils, and past disturbance history (timber harvesting and wildfires). ALC increased with stand age in young managed forests, with much greater variation of ALC in relation to years since wildfire in old unmanaged forests. Timber harvesting was the most important driver of ALC across the entire watershed, despite occurring on only 23% of the landscape. More variation in forest ALC density was explained in models of young managed forests than in models of old unmanaged forests. Besides stand age, ALC density in young managed forests was driven by factors influencing site productivity, whereas variation in ALC density in old unmanaged forests was also affected by finer scale topographic conditions associated with sheltered sites. Past wildfires only had a small influence on current ALC density, which may be a result of long times since fire and/or prevalence of non-stand replacing fire. Our results indicate that forest ALC density depends on a suite of multi-scale environmental drivers mediated by complex mountain topography, and that these relationships are dependent on stand age. The high and context-dependent spatial variability of forest ALC density has implications for quantifying forest carbon stores, establishing upper bounds of potential carbon sequestration, and scaling field data to landscape and regional scales. PMID:27041818

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

DOE PAGES

Griffiths, Natalie A.; Hanson, Paul J.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; ...

2017-11-22

Here, we are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO 2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial vs. temporal variation in measured C cycle processes and their environmental drivers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of a peatland C model to identify how variation in ecosystem parameters contributes to model prediction uncertainty. High spatial variability in C cycle processes resulted in the inability to determinemore » if the bog was a C source or sink, as the 95% confidence interval ranged from a source of 50 g C m –2 yr –1 to a sink of 67 g C m –2 yr –1. Model sensitivity analysis also identified that spatial variation in tree and shrub photosynthesis, allocation characteristics, and maintenance respiration all contributed to large variations in the pretreatment estimates of net C balance. Variation in ecosystem processes can be more thoroughly characterized if more measurements are collected for parameters that are highly variable over space and time, and especially if those measurements encompass environmental gradients that may be driving the spatial and temporal variation (e.g., hummock vs. hollow microtopographies, and wet vs. dry years). Together, the coupled modeling and empirical approaches indicate that variability in C cycle processes and their drivers must be taken into account when interpreting the significance of experimental warming and elevated CO 2 treatments.« less

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griffiths, Natalie A.; Hanson, Paul J.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

Here, we are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO 2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial vs. temporal variation in measured C cycle processes and their environmental drivers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of a peatland C model to identify how variation in ecosystem parameters contributes to model prediction uncertainty. High spatial variability in C cycle processes resulted in the inability to determinemore » if the bog was a C source or sink, as the 95% confidence interval ranged from a source of 50 g C m –2 yr –1 to a sink of 67 g C m –2 yr –1. Model sensitivity analysis also identified that spatial variation in tree and shrub photosynthesis, allocation characteristics, and maintenance respiration all contributed to large variations in the pretreatment estimates of net C balance. Variation in ecosystem processes can be more thoroughly characterized if more measurements are collected for parameters that are highly variable over space and time, and especially if those measurements encompass environmental gradients that may be driving the spatial and temporal variation (e.g., hummock vs. hollow microtopographies, and wet vs. dry years). Together, the coupled modeling and empirical approaches indicate that variability in C cycle processes and their drivers must be taken into account when interpreting the significance of experimental warming and elevated CO 2 treatments.« less

Impacts of Spatial Distribution of Impervious Areas on Runoff Response of Hillslope Catchments: Simulation Study

EPA Science Inventory

This study analyzes variations in the model-projected changes in catchment runoff response after urbanization that stem from variations in the spatial distribution of impervious areas, interevent differences in temporal rainfall structure, and antecedent soil moisture (ASM). In t...

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Meteorological Drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, M.; Tamilmani, D.

2015-09-01

The present study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar basin, Tamil Nadu using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity. The basin was divided into 97 grid-cells of 5 × 5 km with each grid correspondence to approximately 1.03 % of total area. Monthly rainfall data for the period of 40 years (1972-2011) from 28 rain gauge stations in the basin was spatially interpolated and gridded monthly rainfall was created. Regional representative of SPI values calculated from mean areal rainfall were used to analyse the temporal variation of drought at multiple time scales. Spatial variation of drought was analysed based on highest drought severity derived from the monthly gridded SPI values. Frequency analyse was applied to assess the recurrence pattern of drought severity. The temporal analysis of SPI indicated that moderate, severe and extreme droughts are common in the basin and spatial analysis of drought severity identified the areas most frequently affected by drought. The results of this study can be used for developing drought preparedness plan and formulating mitigation strategies for sustainable water resource management within the basin.

Spatial uncertainty analysis: Propagation of interpolation errors in spatially distributed models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.L.; Marks, D.G.

1996-01-01

In simulation modelling, it is desirable to quantify model uncertainties and provide not only point estimates for output variables but confidence intervals as well. Spatially distributed physical and ecological process models are becoming widely used, with runs being made over a grid of points that represent the landscape. This requires input values at each grid point, which often have to be interpolated from irregularly scattered measurement sites, e.g., weather stations. Interpolation introduces spatially varying errors which propagate through the model We extended established uncertainty analysis methods to a spatial domain for quantifying spatial patterns of input variable interpolation errors and how they propagate through a model to affect the uncertainty of the model output. We applied this to a model of potential evapotranspiration (PET) as a demonstration. We modelled PET for three time periods in 1990 as a function of temperature, humidity, and wind on a 10-km grid across the U.S. portion of the Columbia River Basin. Temperature, humidity, and wind speed were interpolated using kriging from 700- 1000 supporting data points. Kriging standard deviations (SD) were used to quantify the spatially varying interpolation uncertainties. For each of 5693 grid points, 100 Monte Carlo simulations were done, using the kriged values of temperature, humidity, and wind, plus random error terms determined by the kriging SDs and the correlations of interpolation errors among the three variables. For the spring season example, kriging SDs averaged 2.6??C for temperature, 8.7% for relative humidity, and 0.38 m s-1 for wind. The resultant PET estimates had coefficients of variation (CVs) ranging from 14% to 27% for the 10-km grid cells. Maps of PET means and CVs showed the spatial patterns of PET with a measure of its uncertainty due to interpolation of the input variables. This methodology should be applicable to a variety of spatially distributed models using interpolated inputs.

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

Treesearch

Mark C. Gabriel; Randy Kolka; Trent Wickman; Ed Nater; Laurel. Woodruff

2009-01-01

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch (Perca flavescens) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue...

GRACE Hydrological estimates for small basins: Evaluating processing approaches on the High Plains Aquifer, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longuevergne, Laurent; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Wilson, Clark R.

2010-11-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide observations of water storage variation at regional scales. However, when focusing on a region of interest, limited spatial resolution and noise contamination can cause estimation bias and spatial leakage, problems that are exacerbated as the region of interest approaches the GRACE resolution limit of a few hundred km. Reliable estimates of water storage variations in small basins require compromises between competing needs for noise suppression and spatial resolution. The objective of this study was to quantitatively investigate processing methods and their impacts on bias, leakage, GRACE noise reduction, and estimated total error, allowing solution of the trade-offs. Among the methods tested is a recently developed concentration algorithm called spatiospectral localization, which optimizes the basin shape description, taking into account limited spatial resolution. This method is particularly suited to retrieval of basin-scale water storage variations and is effective for small basins. To increase confidence in derived methods, water storage variations were calculated for both CSR (Center for Space Research) and GRGS (Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale) GRACE products, which employ different processing strategies. The processing techniques were tested on the intensively monitored High Plains Aquifer (450,000 km2 area), where application of the appropriate optimal processing method allowed retrieval of water storage variations over a portion of the aquifer as small as ˜200,000 km2.

Studies of silicon pn junction solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindholm, F. A.; Neugroschel, A.

1977-01-01

Modifications of the basic Shockley equations that result from the random and nonrandom spatial variations of the chemical composition of a semiconductor were developed. These modifications underlie the existence of the extensive emitter recombination current that limits the voltage over the open circuit of solar cells. The measurement of parameters, series resistance and the base diffusion length is discussed. Two methods are presented for establishing the energy bandgap narrowing in the heavily-doped emitter region. Corrections that can be important in the application of one of these methods to small test cells are examined. Oxide-charge-induced high-low-junction emitter (OCI-HLE) test cells which exhibit considerably higher voltage over the open circuit than was previously seen in n-on-p solar cells are described.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

Environmental and spatial drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic characteristics of bat communities in human-modified landscapes.

PubMed

Cisneros, Laura M; Fagan, Matthew E; Willig, Michael R

2016-01-01

Assembly of species into communities following human disturbance (e.g., deforestation, fragmentation) may be governed by spatial (e.g., dispersal) or environmental (e.g., niche partitioning) mechanisms. Variation partitioning has been used to broadly disentangle spatial and environmental mechanisms, and approaches utilizing functional and phylogenetic characteristics of communities have been implemented to determine the relative importance of particular environmental (or niche-based) mechanisms. Nonetheless, few studies have integrated these quantitative approaches to comprehensively assess the relative importance of particular structuring processes. We employed a novel variation partitioning approach to evaluate the relative importance of particular spatial and environmental drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of bat communities in a human-modified landscape in Costa Rica. Specifically, we estimated the amount of variation in species composition (taxonomic structure) and in two aspects of functional and phylogenetic structure (i.e., composition and dispersion) along a forest loss and fragmentation gradient that are uniquely explained by landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) or space to assess the importance of competing mechanisms. The unique effects of space on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic structure were consistently small. In contrast, landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) played an appreciable role in structuring bat communities. Spatially-structured landscape characteristics explained 84% of the variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, and the unique effects of landscape characteristics significantly explained 14% of the variation in species composition. Furthermore, variation in bat community structure was primarily due to differences in dispersion of species within functional or phylogenetic space along the gradient, rather than due to differences in functional or phylogenetic composition. Variation among bat communities was related to environmental mechanisms, especially niche-based (i.e., environmental) processes, rather than spatial mechanisms. High variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, as opposed to functional or phylogenetic composition, suggests that loss or gain of niche space is driving the progressive loss or gain of species with particular traits from communities along the human-modified gradient. Thus, environmental characteristics associated with landscape structure influence functional or phylogenetic aspects of bat communities by effectively altering the ways in which species partition niche space.

Environmental and spatial drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic characteristics of bat communities in human-modified landscapes

PubMed Central

Fagan, Matthew E.; Willig, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Background Assembly of species into communities following human disturbance (e.g., deforestation, fragmentation) may be governed by spatial (e.g., dispersal) or environmental (e.g., niche partitioning) mechanisms. Variation partitioning has been used to broadly disentangle spatial and environmental mechanisms, and approaches utilizing functional and phylogenetic characteristics of communities have been implemented to determine the relative importance of particular environmental (or niche-based) mechanisms. Nonetheless, few studies have integrated these quantitative approaches to comprehensively assess the relative importance of particular structuring processes. Methods We employed a novel variation partitioning approach to evaluate the relative importance of particular spatial and environmental drivers of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of bat communities in a human-modified landscape in Costa Rica. Specifically, we estimated the amount of variation in species composition (taxonomic structure) and in two aspects of functional and phylogenetic structure (i.e., composition and dispersion) along a forest loss and fragmentation gradient that are uniquely explained by landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) or space to assess the importance of competing mechanisms. Results The unique effects of space on taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic structure were consistently small. In contrast, landscape characteristics (i.e., environment) played an appreciable role in structuring bat communities. Spatially-structured landscape characteristics explained 84% of the variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, and the unique effects of landscape characteristics significantly explained 14% of the variation in species composition. Furthermore, variation in bat community structure was primarily due to differences in dispersion of species within functional or phylogenetic space along the gradient, rather than due to differences in functional or phylogenetic composition. Discussion Variation among bat communities was related to environmental mechanisms, especially niche-based (i.e., environmental) processes, rather than spatial mechanisms. High variation in functional or phylogenetic dispersion, as opposed to functional or phylogenetic composition, suggests that loss or gain of niche space is driving the progressive loss or gain of species with particular traits from communities along the human-modified gradient. Thus, environmental characteristics associated with landscape structure influence functional or phylogenetic aspects of bat communities by effectively altering the ways in which species partition niche space. PMID:27761338

Inferring social structure and its drivers from refuge use in the desert tortoise, a relatively solitary species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sah, Pratha; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Aiello, Christina M.; Hudson, Peter J.; Bansal, Shweta

2016-01-01

For several species, refuges (such as burrows, dens, roosts, nests) are an essential resource for protection from predators and extreme environmental conditions. Refuges also serve as focal sites for social interactions, including mating, courtship, and aggression. Knowledge of refuge use patterns can therefore provide information about social structure, mating, and foraging success, as well as the robustness and health of wildlife populations, especially for species considered to be relatively solitary. In this study, we construct networks of burrow use to infer social associations in a threatened wildlife species typically considered solitary—the desert tortoise. We show that tortoise social networks are significantly different than null networks of random associations, and have moderate spatial constraints. We next use statistical models to identify major mechanisms behind individual-level variation in tortoise burrow use, popularity of burrows in desert tortoise habitat, and test for stressor-driven changes in refuge use patterns. We show that seasonal variation has a strong impact on tortoise burrow switching behavior. On the other hand, burrow age and topographical condition influence the number of tortoises visiting a burrow in desert tortoise habitat. Of three major population stressors affecting this species (translocation, drought, disease), translocation alters tortoise burrow switching behavior, with translocated animals visiting fewer unique burrows than residents. In a species that is not social, our study highlights the importance of leveraging refuge use behavior to study the presence of and mechanisms behind non-random social structure and individual-level variation. Our analysis of the impact of stressors on refuge-based social structure further emphasizes the potential of this method to detect environmental or anthropogenic disturbances.

Variance components estimation for continuous and discrete data, with emphasis on cross-classified sampling designs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

Variance components may play multiple roles (cf. Cox and Solomon 2003). First, magnitudes and relative magnitudes of the variances of random factors may have important scientific and management value in their own right. For example, variation in levels of invasive vegetation among and within lakes may suggest causal agents that operate at both spatial scales – a finding that may be important for scientific and management reasons. Second, variance components may also be of interest when they affect precision of means and covariate coefficients. For example, variation in the effect of water depth on the probability of aquatic plant presence in a study of multiple lakes may vary by lake. This variation will affect the precision of the average depth-presence association. Third, variance component estimates may be used when designing studies, including monitoring programs. For example, to estimate the numbers of years and of samples per year required to meet long-term monitoring goals, investigators need estimates of within and among-year variances. Other chapters in this volume (Chapters 7, 8, and 10) as well as extensive external literature outline a framework for applying estimates of variance components to the design of monitoring efforts. For example, a series of papers with an ecological monitoring theme examined the relative importance of multiple sources of variation, including variation in means among sites, years, and site-years, for the purposes of temporal trend detection and estimation (Larsen et al. 2004, and references therein).

Does Encope emarginata (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) affect spatial variation patterns of estuarine subtidal meiofauna and microphytobenthos?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brustolin, Marco C.; Thomas, Micheli C.; Mafra, Luiz L.; Lana, Paulo da Cunha

2014-08-01

Foraging macrofauna, such as the sand dollar Encope emarginata, can modify sediment properties and affect spatial distribution patterns of microphytobenthos and meiobenthos at different spatial scales. We adopted a spatial hierarchical approach composed of five spatial levels (km, 100 s m, 10 s m, 1 s m and cm) to describe variation patterns of microphytobenthos, meiobenthos and sediment variables in shallow subtidal regions in the subtropical Paranaguá Bay (Southern Brazil) with live E. emarginata (LE), dead E. emarginata (only skeletons - (DE), and no E. emarginata (WE). The overall structure of microphytobenthos and meiofauna was always less variable at WE and much of variation at the scale of 100 s m was related to variability within LE and DE, due to foraging activities or to the presence of shell hashes. Likewise, increased variability in chlorophyll-a and phaeopigment contents was observed among locations within LE, although textural parameters of sediment varied mainly at smaller scales. Variations within LE were related to changes on the amount and quality of food as a function of sediment heterogeneity induced by the foraging behavior of sand dollars. We provide strong evidence that top-down effects related to the occurrence of E. emarginata act in synergy with bottom-up structuring related to hydrodynamic processes in determining overall benthic spatial variability. Conversely, species richness is mainly influenced by environmental heterogeneity at small spatial scales (centimeters to meters), which creates a mosaic of microhabitats.

Separating spatial search and efficiency rates as components of predation risk

PubMed Central

DeCesare, Nicholas J.

2012-01-01

Predation risk is an important driver of ecosystems, and local spatial variation in risk can have population-level consequences by affecting multiple components of the predation process. I use resource selection and proportional hazard time-to-event modelling to assess the spatial drivers of two key components of risk—the search rate (i.e. aggregative response) and predation efficiency rate (i.e. functional response)—imposed by wolves (Canis lupus) in a multi-prey system. In my study area, both components of risk increased according to topographic variation, but anthropogenic features affected only the search rate. Predicted models of the cumulative hazard, or risk of a kill, underlying wolf search paths validated well with broad-scale variation in kill rates, suggesting that spatial hazard models provide a means of scaling up from local heterogeneity in predation risk to population-level dynamics in predator–prey systems. Additionally, I estimated an integrated model of relative spatial predation risk as the product of the search and efficiency rates, combining the distinct contributions of spatial heterogeneity to each component of risk. PMID:22977145

Analysis of biophysical and anthropogenic variables and their relation to the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass illustrated for North and East Kalimantan, Borneo.

PubMed

Van der Laan, Carina; Verweij, Pita A; Quiñones, Marcela J; Faaij, André Pc

2014-12-01

Land use and land cover change occurring in tropical forest landscapes contributes substantially to carbon emissions. Better insights into the spatial variation of aboveground biomass is therefore needed. By means of multiple statistical tests, including geographically weighted regression, we analysed the effects of eight variables on the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass. North and East Kalimantan were selected as the case study region; the third largest carbon emitting Indonesian provinces. Strong positive relationships were found between aboveground biomass and the tested variables; altitude, slope, land allocation zoning, soil type, and distance to the nearest fire, road, river and city. Furthermore, the results suggest that the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass can be largely attributed to altitude, distance to nearest fire and land allocation zoning. Our study showed that in this landscape, aboveground biomass could not be explained by one single variable; the variables were interrelated, with altitude as the dominant variable. Spatial analyses should therefore integrate a variety of biophysical and anthropogenic variables to provide a better understanding of spatial variation in aboveground biomass. Efforts to minimise carbon emissions should incorporate the identified factors, by 1) the maintenance of lands with high AGB or carbon stocks, namely in the identified zones at the higher altitudes; and 2) regeneration or sustainable utilisation of lands with low AGB or carbon stocks, dependent on the regeneration capacity of the vegetation. Low aboveground biomass densities can be found in the lowlands in burned areas, and in non-forest zones and production forests.

Statistical mapping of count survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Scott, J. Michael; Heglund, Patricia J.; Morrison, Michael L.; Haufler, Jonathan B.; Wall, William A.

2002-01-01

We apply a Poisson mixed model to the problem of mapping (or predicting) bird relative abundance from counts collected from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The model expresses the logarithm of the Poisson mean as a sum of a fixed term (which may depend on habitat variables) and a random effect which accounts for remaining unexplained variation. The random effect is assumed to be spatially correlated, thus providing a more general model than the traditional Poisson regression approach. Consequently, the model is capable of improved prediction when data are autocorrelated. Moreover, formulation of the mapping problem in terms of a statistical model facilitates a wide variety of inference problems which are cumbersome or even impossible using standard methods of mapping. For example, assessment of prediction uncertainty, including the formal comparison of predictions at different locations, or through time, using the model-based prediction variance is straightforward under the Poisson model (not so with many nominally model-free methods). Also, ecologists may generally be interested in quantifying the response of a species to particular habitat covariates or other landscape attributes. Proper accounting for the uncertainty in these estimated effects is crucially dependent on specification of a meaningful statistical model. Finally, the model may be used to aid in sampling design, by modifying the existing sampling plan in a manner which minimizes some variance-based criterion. Model fitting under this model is carried out using a simulation technique known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Application of the model is illustrated using Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) counts from Pennsylvania BBS routes. We produce both a model-based map depicting relative abundance, and the corresponding map of prediction uncertainty. We briefly address the issue of spatial sampling design under this model. Finally, we close with some discussion of mapping in relation to habitat structure. Although our models were fit in the absence of habitat information, the resulting predictions show a strong inverse relation with a map of forest cover in the state, as expected. Consequently, the results suggest that the correlated random effect in the model is broadly representing ecological variation, and that BBS data may be generally useful for studying bird-habitat relationships, even in the presence of observer errors and other widely recognized deficiencies of the BBS.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B. N.

2012-05-01

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against ~0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); ~60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and ~40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our ~100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Oceanographic variation influences spatial genomic structure in the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus.

PubMed

Van Wyngaarden, Mallory; Snelgrove, Paul V R; DiBacco, Claudio; Hamilton, Lorraine C; Rodríguez-Ezpeleta, Naiara; Zhan, Luyao; Beiko, Robert G; Bradbury, Ian R

2018-03-01

Environmental factors can influence diversity and population structure in marine species and accurate understanding of this influence can both improve fisheries management and help predict responses to environmental change. We used 7163 SNPs derived from restriction site-associated DNA sequencing genotyped in 245 individuals of the economically important sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus , to evaluate the correlations between oceanographic variation and a previously identified latitudinal genomic cline. Sea scallops span a broad latitudinal area (>10 degrees), and we hypothesized that climatic variation significantly drives clinal trends in allele frequency. Using a large environmental dataset, including temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, and nutrient concentrations, we identified a suite of SNPs (285-621, depending on analysis and environmental dataset) potentially under selection through correlations with environmental variation. Principal components analysis of different outlier SNPs and environmental datasets revealed similar northern and southern clusters, with significant associations between the first axes of each ( R 2 adj  = .66-.79). Multivariate redundancy analysis of outlier SNPs and the environmental principal components indicated that environmental factors explained more than 32% of the variance. Similarly, multiple linear regressions and random-forest analysis identified winter average and minimum ocean temperatures as significant parameters in the link between genetic and environmental variation. This work indicates that oceanographic variation is associated with the observed genomic cline in this species and that seasonal periods of extreme cold may restrict gene flow along a latitudinal gradient in this marine benthic bivalve. Incorporating this finding into management may improve accuracy of management strategies and future predictions.

The Detection of Clusters with Spatial Heterogeneity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zuoyi

2011-01-01

This thesis consists of two parts. In Chapter 2, we focus on the spatial scan statistics with overdispersion and Chapter 3 is devoted to the randomized permutation test for identifying local patterns of spatial association. The spatial scan statistic has been widely used in spatial disease surveillance and spatial cluster detection. To apply it, a…

Coarsening of stripe patterns: variations with quench depth and scaling.

PubMed

Tripathi, Ashwani K; Kumar, Deepak

2015-02-01

The coarsening of stripe patterns when the system is evolved from random initial states is studied by varying the quench depth ε, which is a measure of distance from the transition point of the stripe phase. The dynamics of the growth of stripe order, which is characterized by two length scales, depends on the quench depth. The growth exponents of the two length scales vary continuously with ε. The decay exponents for free energy, stripe curvature, and densities of defects like grain boundaries and dislocations also show similar variation. This implies a breakdown of the standard picture of nonequilibrium dynamical scaling. In order to understand the variations with ε we propose an additional scaling with a length scale dependent on ε. The main contribution to this length scale comes from the "pinning potential," which is unique to systems where the order parameter is spatially periodic. The periodic order parameter gives rise to an ε-dependent potential, which can pin defects like grain boundaries, dislocations, etc. This additional scaling provides a compact description of variations of growth exponents with quench depth in terms of just one exponent for each of the length scales. The relaxation of free energy, stripe curvature, and the defect densities have also been related to these length scales. The study is done at zero temperature using Swift-Hohenberg equation in two dimensions.

Does spatial location matter? Traditional therapy utilisation among the general population in a Ghanaian rural and urban setting.

PubMed

Gyasi, Razak Mohammed; Asante, Felix; Segbefia, Alexander Yao; Abass, Kabila; Mensah, Charlotte Monica; Siaw, Lawrencia Pokuah; Eshun, Gabriel; Adjei, Prince Osei-Wusu

2015-06-01

Despite the recognition for rising consumption rate of traditional medicine (TRM) in health and spatio-medical literature in the global scale, the impact of location in traditional therapy use has been explored least in Ghana. This paper analysed the role of spatial variation in TRM use in Kumasi Metropolis and Sekyere South District of Ashanti Region, Ghana. A retrospective cross-sectional and place-based survey was conducted in a representative sample (N=324) selected through systematic random sampling technique. Structured interviewer-administered questionnaires were espoused as the main research instruments. Data were analysed with Pearson's Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests from the Predictive Analytics Software (PASW) version 17.0. The study found that over 86% reported TRM use. Whilst majority (59.1%) of the respondents had used TRM two or more times within the last 12 months, biologically-based therapies and energy healing were common forms of TRM accessed. Although, the use of TRM did not vary (p>0.05), knowledge about TRM, modalities of TRM and the sources of TRM differed significantly across geographically demarcated rural and urban splits (p<0.005). The study advances our understanding of the spatial dimensions as regards TRM utilisation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel Micropatterned Cardiac Cell Cultures with Realistic Ventricular Microstructure

PubMed Central

Badie, Nima; Bursac, Nenad

2009-01-01

Systematic studies of cardiac structure-function relationships to date have been hindered by the intrinsic complexity and variability of in vivo and ex vivo model systems. Thus, we set out to develop a reproducible cell culture system that can accurately replicate the realistic microstructure of native cardiac tissues. Using cell micropatterning techniques, we aligned cultured cardiomyocytes at micro- and macroscopic spatial scales to follow local directions of cardiac fibers in murine ventricular cross sections, as measured by high-resolution diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging. To elucidate the roles of ventricular tissue microstructure in macroscopic impulse conduction, we optically mapped membrane potentials in micropatterned cardiac cultures with realistic tissue boundaries and natural cell orientation, cardiac cultures with realistic tissue boundaries but random cell orientation, and standard isotropic monolayers. At 2 Hz pacing, both microscopic changes in cell orientation and ventricular tissue boundaries independently and synergistically increased the spatial dispersion of conduction velocity, but not the action potential duration. The realistic variations in intramural microstructure created unique spatial signatures in micro- and macroscopic impulse propagation within ventricular cross-section cultures. This novel in vitro model system is expected to help bridge the existing gap between experimental structure-function studies in standard cardiac monolayers and intact heart tissues. PMID:19413993

Analysis of cardiac signals using spatial filling index and time-frequency domain

PubMed Central

Faust, Oliver; Acharya U, Rajendra; Krishnan, SM; Min, Lim Choo

2004-01-01

Background Analysis of heart rate variation (HRV) has become a popular noninvasive tool for assessing the activities of the autonomic nervous system (ANS). HRV analysis is based on the concept that fast fluctuations may specifically reflect changes of sympathetic and vagal activity. It shows that the structure generating the signal is not simply linear, but also involves nonlinear contributions. These signals are essentially non-stationary; may contain indicators of current disease, or even warnings about impending diseases. The indicators may be present at all times or may occur at random in the time scale. However, to study and pinpoint abnormalities in voluminous data collected over several hours is strenuous and time consuming. Methods This paper presents the spatial filling index and time-frequency analysis of heart rate variability signal for disease identification. Renyi's entropy is evaluated for the signal in the Wigner-Ville and Continuous Wavelet Transformation (CWT) domain. Results This Renyi's entropy gives lower 'p' value for scalogram than Wigner-Ville distribution and also, the contours of scalogram visually show the features of the diseases. And in the time-frequency analysis, the Renyi's entropy gives better result for scalogram than the Wigner-Ville distribution. Conclusion Spatial filling index and Renyi's entropy has distinct regions for various diseases with an accuracy of more than 95%. PMID:15361254

Targeting trachoma control through risk mapping: the example of Southern Sudan.

PubMed

Clements, Archie C A; Kur, Lucia W; Gatpan, Gideon; Ngondi, Jeremiah M; Emerson, Paul M; Lado, Mounir; Sabasio, Anthony; Kolaczinski, Jan H

2010-08-17

Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1-9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention.

Targeting Trachoma Control through Risk Mapping: The Example of Southern Sudan

PubMed Central

Clements, Archie C. A.; Kur, Lucia W.; Gatpan, Gideon; Ngondi, Jeremiah M.; Emerson, Paul M.; Lado, Mounir; Sabasio, Anthony; Kolaczinski, Jan H.

2010-01-01

Background Trachoma is a major cause of blindness in Southern Sudan. Its distribution has only been partially established and many communities in need of intervention have therefore not been identified or targeted. The present study aimed to develop a tool to improve targeting of survey and control activities. Methods/Principal Findings A national trachoma risk map was developed using Bayesian geostatistics models, incorporating trachoma prevalence data from 112 geo-referenced communities surveyed between 2001 and 2009. Logistic regression models were developed using active trachoma (trachomatous inflammation follicular and/or trachomatous inflammation intense) in 6345 children aged 1–9 years as the outcome, and incorporating fixed effects for age, long-term average rainfall (interpolated from weather station data) and land cover (i.e. vegetation type, derived from satellite remote sensing), as well as geostatistical random effects describing spatial clustering of trachoma. The model predicted the west of the country to be at no or low trachoma risk. Trachoma clusters in the central, northern and eastern areas had a radius of 8 km after accounting for the fixed effects. Conclusion In Southern Sudan, large-scale spatial variation in the risk of active trachoma infection is associated with aridity. Spatial prediction has identified likely high-risk areas to be prioritized for more data collection, potentially to be followed by intervention. PMID:20808910

The effect of spatial orientation on detecting motion trajectories in noise.

PubMed

Pavan, Andrea; Casco, Clara; Mather, George; Bellacosa, Rosilari M; Cuturi, Luigi F; Campana, Gianluca

2011-09-15

A series of experiments investigated the extent to which the spatial orientation of a signal line affects discrimination of its trajectory from the random trajectories of background noise lines. The orientation of the signal line was either parallel (iso-) or orthogonal (ortho-) to its motion direction and it was identical in all respects to the noise (orientation, length and speed) except for its motion direction, rendering the signal line indistinguishable from the noise on a frame-to-frame basis. We found that discrimination of ortho-trajectories was generally better than iso-trajectories. Discrimination of ortho-trajectories was largely immune to the effects of spatial jitter in the trajectory, and to variations in step size and line-length. Discrimination of iso-trajectories was reliable provided that step-size was not too short and did not exceed line length, and that the trajectory was straight. The new result that trajectory discrimination in moving line elements is modulated by line orientation suggests that ortho- and iso-trajectory discrimination rely upon two distinct mechanisms: iso-motion discrimination involves a 'motion-streak' process that combines motion information with information about orientation parallel to the motion trajectory, while ortho-motion discrimination involves extended trajectory facilitation in a network of receptive fields with orthogonal orientation tuning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social and spatial effects on genetic variation between foraging flocks in a wild bird population.

PubMed

Radersma, Reinder; Garroway, Colin J; Santure, Anna W; de Cauwer, Isabelle; Farine, Damien R; Slate, Jon; Sheldon, Ben C

2017-10-01

Social interactions are rarely random. In some instances, animals exhibit homophily or heterophily, the tendency to interact with similar or dissimilar conspecifics, respectively. Genetic homophily and heterophily influence the evolutionary dynamics of populations, because they potentially affect sexual and social selection. Here, we investigate the link between social interactions and allele frequencies in foraging flocks of great tits (Parus major) over three consecutive years. We constructed co-occurrence networks which explicitly described the splitting and merging of 85,602 flocks through time (fission-fusion dynamics), at 60 feeding sites. Of the 1,711 birds in those flocks, we genotyped 962 individuals at 4,701 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). By combining genomewide genotyping with repeated field observations of the same individuals, we were able to investigate links between social structure and allele frequencies at a much finer scale than was previously possible. We explicitly accounted for potential spatial effects underlying genetic structure at the population level. We modelled social structure and spatial configuration of great tit fission-fusion dynamics with eigenvector maps. Variance partitioning revealed that allele frequencies were strongly affected by group fidelity (explaining 27%-45% of variance) as individuals tended to maintain associations with the same conspecifics. These conspecifics were genetically more dissimilar than expected, shown by genomewide heterophily for pure social (i.e., space-independent) grouping preferences. Genomewide homophily was linked to spatial configuration, indicating spatial segregation of genotypes. We did not find evidence for homophily or heterophily for putative socially relevant candidate genes or any other SNP markers. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing social and spatial processes in determining population structure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mapping wood density globally using remote sensing and climatological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, A.; Camps-Valls, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Kattge, J.; Robinson, N.; Reichstein, M.; Allred, B. W.; Running, S. W.

2017-12-01

Wood density (WD) is defined as the oven-dry mass divided by fresh volume, varies between individuals, and describes the carbon investment per unit volume of stem. WD has been proven to be a key functional trait in carbon cycle research and correlates with numerous morphological, mechanical, physiological, and ecological properties. In spite of the utility and importance of this trait, there is a lack of an operational framework to spatialize plant WD measurements at a global scale. In this work, we present a consistent modular processing chain to derive global maps (500 m) of WD using modern machine learning techniques along with optical remote sensing data (MODIS/Landsat) and climate data using the Google Earth Engine platform. The developed approach uses a hierarchical Bayesian approach to fill in gaps in the plant measured WD data set to maximize its global representativeness. WD plant species are then aggregated to Plant Functional Types (PFT). The spatial abundance of PFT at 500 m spatial resolution (MODIS) is calculated using a high resolution (30 m) PFT map developed using Landsat data. Based on these PFT abundances, representative WD values are estimated for each MODIS pixel with nearby measured data. Finally, random forests are used to globally estimate WD from these MODIS pixels using remote sensing and climate. The validation and assessment of the applied methods indicate that the model explains more than 72% of the spatial variance of the calculated community aggregated WD estimates with virtually unbiased estimates and low RMSE (<15%). The maps thus offer new opportunities to study and analyze the global patterns of variation of WD at an unprecedented spatial coverage and spatial resolution.

Distance to health services affects local-level vaccine efficacy for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) among rural Filipino children

PubMed Central

Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Lucero, Marilla; Nohynek, Hanna; Anthamatten, Peter; Thomas, Deborah S. K.; Tallo, Veronica; Tanskanen, Antti; Quiambao, Beatriz P.; Puumalainen, Taneli; Lupisan, Socorro P.; Ruutu, Petri; Ladesma, Erma; Williams, Gail M.; Riley, Ian; Simões, Eric A. F.

2014-01-01

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood pneumococcal disease in several regions globally. We demonstrate how spatial epidemiological analysis of a PCV trial can assist in developing vaccination strategies that target specific geographic subpopulations at greater risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind vaccine trial that examined the efficacy of an 11-valent PCV among children less than 2 y of age in Bohol, Philippines. Trial data were linked to the residential location of each participant using a geographic information system. We use spatial interpolation methods to create smoothed surface maps of vaccination rates and local-level vaccine efficacy across the study area. We then measure the relationship between distance to the main study hospital and local-level vaccine efficacy, controlling for ecological factors, using spatial autoregressive models with spatial autoregressive disturbances. We find a significant amount of spatial variation in vaccination rates across the study area. For the primary study endpoint vaccine efficacy increased with distance from the main study hospital from −14% for children living less than 1.5 km from Bohol Regional Hospital (BRH) to 55% for children living greater than 8.5 km from BRH. Spatial regression models indicated that after adjustment for ecological factors, distance to the main study hospital was positively related to vaccine efficacy, increasing at a rate of 4.5% per kilometer distance. Because areas with poor access to care have significantly higher VE, targeted vaccination of children in these areas might allow for a more effective implementation of global programs. PMID:24550454

Magnetic Local Time Dependant Low Energy Electron Flux Models at Geostationary Earth Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boynton, R.; Balikhin, M. A.; Walker, S. N.

2017-12-01

The low energy electron fluxes in the outer radiation belts at Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) can vary widely in Magnetic Local Time (MLT). This spatial variation is due to the convective and substorm-associated electric fields and can take place on short time scales. This makes it difficult to deduce a data based model of the low energy electrons. For higher energies, where there is negligible spatial variation at a particular L-star, data based models employ averaged fluxes over the orbit. This removes the diurnal variation as GEO passes through various L-star due to the structure of Earth's magnetic field. This study develops a number of models for the low energy electron fluxes measured by GOES 13 and 15 for different MLT to capture the dynamics of the spatial variations.

Spatial pattern of spring phytoplankton community in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Ran; Cai, Yanhong; Wei, Yongjie; Li, Xiaoming

2017-04-01

The spatial pattern of phytoplankton community can indicate potential environmental variation in different water bodies. In this context, spatial pattern of phytoplankton community and its response to environmental and spatial factors were studied in the coastal waters of northern Zhejiang, East China Sea using multivariate statistical techniques. Results showed that 94 species belonging to 40 genera, 5 phyla were recorded (the remaining 9 were identified to genus level) with diatoms being the most dominant followed by dinoflagellates. Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), nonmetric multidimentional scaling (NMDS), and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) all demomstrated that the whole study area could be divided into 3 subareas with significant differences. Indicator species analysis (ISA) further confirmed that the indicator species of each subarea correlated significantly with specific environmental factors. Distance-based linear model (Distlm) and Mantel test revealed that silicate (SiO32-), phosphate (PO43-), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were the most important environmental factors influencing phytoplankton community. Variation portioning (VP) finally concluded that the shared fractions of environmental and spatial factors were higher than either the pure environmental effects or the pure spatial effects, suggesting phytoplankton biogeography were mainly affected by both the environmental variability and dispersal limitation. Additionally, other factors (eg., trace metals, biological grazing, climate change, and time-scale variation) may also be the sources of the unexplained variation which need further study.

Investigation of spatial and historical variations of air pollution around an industrial region using trace and macro elements in tree components.

PubMed

Odabasi, Mustafa; Tolunay, Doganay; Kara, Melik; Ozgunerge Falay, Ezgi; Tuna, Gizem; Altiok, Hasan; Dumanoglu, Yetkin; Bayram, Abdurrahman; Elbir, Tolga

2016-04-15

Several trace and macro elements (n=48) were measured in pine needle, branch, bark, tree ring, litter, and soil samples collected at 27 sites (21 industrial, 6 background) to investigate their spatial and historical variation in Aliaga industrial region in Turkey. Concentrations generally decreased with distance from the sources and the lowest ones were measured at background sites far from major sources. Spatial distribution of anthropogenic trace elements indicated that their major sources in the region are the iron-steel plants, ship-breaking activities and the petroleum refinery. Patterns of 40 elements that were detected in most of the samples were also evaluated to assess their suitability for investigation of historical variations. Observed increasing trends of several trace and macro elements (As, Cr, Fe, Mo, Ni, V, Cu, Pb, Sb, Sn, and Hg) in the tree-ring samples were representative for the variations in anthropogenic emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations in Aliaga region. It was shown that lanthanides (La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Er, Yb) could also be used for the investigation of historical variations due to specific industrial emissions (i.e., petroleum refining). Results of the present study showed that tree components, litter, and soil could be used to determine the spatial variations of atmospheric pollution in a region while tree rings could be used to assess the historical variations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation of acoustic backscatter in the STRESS experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dworski, J. George; Jackson, Darrell R.

1994-08-01

Acoustic backscatter measurements were made of the seabed with a bottom mounted, circularly scanning sonar. The placement was at 91 m depth, mid-shelf of Northern California (38° 34'N), site C3 of the experiment STRESS I (1988-1989). Our expectation was that sonar images (70 m radius, 12,000 m 2) would provide a means of observing, over a large field of view, changes in the bottom due to storm-induced sediment transport and due to bioturbation. This expectation was supported in part by towed sonar measurements at 35 kHz over a sandy area in the North Sea, where dramatic spatial variation in the level of the backseattered signal was observed during an Autumn storm on scales of a few km with no concomitant change in sediment grain size [ JACKSONet al. (1986) The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 80, 1188-1199]. It appeared possible that storm-driven sediment transport might have been responsible for this patchiness, by altering bottom roughness and by redeposition of suspended material. At the California site, a conventional sonar processing of our data from the STRESS experiment reveals no such dramatic change in backscattered signal level due to storms. The sonar images contain random structures whose time evolution is subtle and difficult to interpret. A much clearer picture of temporal and spatial variations emerges from a processing scheme involving cross-correlation of time-separated acoustic views of the bottom. In effect, the sequence of correlation data images produces a movie in which patches of activity are seen to develop as functions of time. It appears that most of this activity is biological rather than hydrodynamic. A tentative explanation is two-fold. The bottom shear stress might have been considerably greater at the North Sea site (with depth only one-half of the California site). The seafloor at the California site was silty-clayey, and backscatter from such floor is less sensitive to the water-floor interface shape and roughness than it would be to the same parameters of a sandy bottom.

Spatial and temporal changes in household structure locations using high-resolution satellite imagery for population assessment: an analysis in southern Zambia, 2006-2011.

PubMed

Shields, Timothy; Pinchoff, Jessie; Lubinda, Jailos; Hamapumbu, Harry; Searle, Kelly; Kobayashi, Tamaki; Thuma, Philip E; Moss, William J; Curriero, Frank C

2016-05-31

Satellite imagery is increasingly available at high spatial resolution and can be used for various purposes in public health research and programme implementation. Comparing a census generated from two satellite images of the same region in rural southern Zambia obtained four and a half years apart identified patterns of household locations and change over time. The length of time that a satellite image-based census is accurate determines its utility. Households were enumerated manually from satellite images obtained in 2006 and 2011 of the same area. Spatial statistics were used to describe clustering, cluster detection, and spatial variation in the location of households. A total of 3821 household locations were enumerated in 2006 and 4256 in 2011, a net change of 435 houses (11.4% increase). Comparison of the images indicated that 971 (25.4%) structures were added and 536 (14.0%) removed. Further analysis suggested similar household clustering in the two images and no substantial difference in concentration of households across the study area. Cluster detection analysis identified a small area where significantly more household structures were removed than expected; however, the amount of change was of limited practical significance. These findings suggest that random sampling of households for study participation would not induce geographic bias if based on a 4.5-year-old image in this region. Application of spatial statistical methods provides insights into the population distribution changes between two time periods and can be helpful in assessing the accuracy of satellite imagery.

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Lopez, Davin L.; Shelton, Paul

2012-01-01

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.

[Spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of soil phosphorus concentration in a mid-subtropical Choerospondias axillaris deciduous broad-leaved forest, China.

PubMed

Hu, Rui Bin; Fang, Xi; Xiang, Wen Hua; Jiang, Fang; Lei, Pi Feng; Zhao, Li Juan; Zhu, Wen Juan; Deng, Xiang Wen

2016-03-01

In order to investigate spatial variations in soil phosphorus (P) concentration and the influencing factors, one permanent plot of 1 hm 2 was established and stand structure was surveyed in Choerospondias axillaries deciduous broadleaved forest in Dashanchong Forest Park in Changsha County, Hunan Province, China. Soil samples were collected with equidistant grid point sampling method and soil P concentration and its spatial variation were analyzed by using geo-statistics and geographical information system (GIS) techniques. The results showed that the variations of total P and available P concentrations in humus layer and in the soil profile at depth of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm were moderate and the available P showed higher variability in a specific soil layer compared with total P. Concentrations of total P and available P in soil decreased, while the variations increased with the increase in soil depth. The total P and available P showed high spatial autocorrelation, primarily resulted from the structural factors. The spatial heterogeneity of available P was stronger than that of total P, and the spatial autocorrelation ranges of total P and available P varied from 92.80 to 168.90 m and from 79.43 to 106.20 m in different soil layers, respectively. At the same soil depth, fractal dimensions of total P were higher than that of available P, with more complex spatial pattern, while available P showed stronger spatial correlation with stronger spatial structure. In humus layer and soil depths of 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm, the spatial variation pattern of total P and available P concentrations showed an apparent belt-shaped and spot massive gradient change. The high value appeared at low elevation and valley position, and the low value appeared in the high elevation and ridge area. The total P and available P concentrations showed significantly negative correlation with elevation and litter, but the relationship with convexity, species, numbers and soil pH was not significant. The total P and available P exhibited significant positive correlations with soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen concentration, indicating the leaching characteristics of soil P. Its spatial variability was affected by many interactive factors.

Scale-dependent variation in forest structures in naturally dynamic boreal forest landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulha, Niko; Pasanen, Leena; De Grandpré, Louis; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Aakala, Tuomas

2017-04-01

Natural forest structures vary at multiple spatial scales. This variation reflects the occurrence of driving factors, such as disturbances and variation in soil or topography. To explore and understand the linkages of forest structural characteristics and factors driving their variation, we need to recognize how the structural characteristics vary in relation to spatial scale. This can be achieved by identifying scale-dependent features in forest structure within unmanaged forest landscapes. By identifying these features and examining their relationship with potential driving factors, we can better understand the dynamics of forest structural development. Here, we examine the spatial variation in forest structures at multiple spatial scales, utilizing data from old-growth boreal forests in two regions with contrasting disturbance regimes: northern Finland and north-eastern Québec, Canada ( 67° 45'N, 29° 36'E, 49° 39'N, 67° 55'W, respectively). The three landscapes (4 km2 each) in Finland are dominated by Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies, whereas the two landscapes in Québec are dominated by Abies balsamea and Picea mariana. Québec's forests are a subject to cyclic outbreaks of the eastern spruce budworm, causing extensive mortality especially in A. balsamea-dominated stands. In the Finnish landscapes, gap- to patch-scale disturbances due to tree senescence, fungi and wind, as well as infrequent surface fires in areas dominated by P. sylvestris, prevail. Owing to the differences in the species compositions and the disturbance regimes, we expect differing scales of variation between the landscapes. To quantify patterns of variation, we visually interpret stereopairs of recent aerial photographs. From the photographs, we collect information on forest canopy coverage, species composition and dead wood. For the interpretation, each 4 km2 plot is divided into 0.1ha square cells (4096 per plot). Interpretations are validated against field observations and compiled to raster maps. We analyze the raster maps with Bayesian scale space approach (iBSiZer), which aims in capturing credible variations at different spatial scales. As a result, we can detect structural entities (e.g. patches with higher canopy cover), which deviate credibly from their surroundings. The detected entities can further be linked to specific drivers. Our results show that the role of a particular driving factor varies in relation to spatial scale. For example, in the Finnish landscapes, topoedaphic factors exerted a stronger control on broad-scale forest structural characteristics, whereas recent disturbances (quantified as the amount of dead wood) appeared to play an important role in explaining the smaller scale variation of forest structures. Here, we showcase the methodology used in the detection of scale-dependent forest structural entities and present the results of our analysis of the spatial scales of variation in the natural boreal forest structures.

Color heterogeneity of the surface of Phobos - Relationships to geologic features and comparison to meteorite analogs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murchie, Scott L.; Britt, Daniel T.; Head, James W.; Pratt, Stephen F.; Fisher, Paul C.

1991-01-01

Color ratio images created from multispectral observations of Phobos are analyzed in order to characterize the spectral properties of Phobos' surface, to assess their spatial distributions and relationships with geologic features, and to compare Phobos' surface materials with possible meteorite analogs. Data calibration and processing is briefly discussed, and the observed spectral properties of Phobos and their lateral variations are examined. Attention is then given to the color properties of different types of impact craters, the origin of lateral variations in surface color, the relation between the spatial distribution of color properties and independently identifiable geologic features, and the relevance of color variation spatial distribution to the origin of the grooves.

Spatial and temporal drivers of phenotypic diversity in polymorphic snakes.

PubMed

Cox, Christian L; Davis Rabosky, Alison R

2013-08-01

Color polymorphism in natural populations presents an ideal opportunity to study the evolutionary drivers of phenotypic diversity. Systems with striking spatial, temporal, and qualitative variation in color can be leveraged to study the mechanisms promoting the distribution of different types of variation in nature. We used the highly polymorphic ground snake (Sonora semiannulata), a putative coral snake mimic with both cryptic and conspicuous morphs, to compare patterns of neutral genetic variation and variation over space and time in color polymorphism to investigate the mechanistic drivers of phenotypic variation across scales. We found that strong selection promotes color polymorphism across spatial and temporal scales, with morph frequencies differing markedly between juvenile and adult age classes within a single population, oscillating over time within multiple populations, and varying drastically over the landscape despite minimal population genetic structure. However, we found no evidence that conspicuousness of morphs was related to which color pattern was favored by selection or to any geographic factors, including sympatry with coral snakes. We suggest that complex patterns of phenotypic variation in polymorphic systems may be a fundamental outcome of the conspicuousness of morphs and that explicit tests of temporal and geographic variation are critical to the interpretation of conspicuousness and mimicry.

False Operation of Static Random Access Memory Cells under Alternating Current Power Supply Voltage Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Takuya; Takata, Hidehiro; Nii, Koji; Nagata, Makoto

2013-04-01

Static random access memory (SRAM) cores exhibit susceptibility against power supply voltage variation. False operation is investigated among SRAM cells under sinusoidal voltage variation on power lines introduced by direct RF power injection. A standard SRAM core of 16 kbyte in a 90 nm 1.5 V technology is diagnosed with built-in self test and on-die noise monitor techniques. The sensitivity of bit error rate is shown to be high against the frequency of injected voltage variation, while it is not greatly influenced by the difference in frequency and phase against SRAM clocking. It is also observed that the distribution of false bits is substantially random in a cell array.

Information theory analysis of sensor-array imaging systems for computer vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huck, F. O.; Fales, C. L.; Park, S. K.; Samms, R. W.; Self, M. O.

1983-01-01

Information theory is used to assess the performance of sensor-array imaging systems, with emphasis on the performance obtained with image-plane signal processing. By electronically controlling the spatial response of the imaging system, as suggested by the mechanism of human vision, it is possible to trade-off edge enhancement for sensitivity, increase dynamic range, and reduce data transmission. Computational results show that: signal information density varies little with large variations in the statistical properties of random radiance fields; most information (generally about 85 to 95 percent) is contained in the signal intensity transitions rather than levels; and performance is optimized when the OTF of the imaging system is nearly limited to the sampling passband to minimize aliasing at the cost of blurring, and the SNR is very high to permit the retrieval of small spatial detail from the extensively blurred signal. Shading the lens aperture transmittance to increase depth of field and using a regular hexagonal sensor-array instead of square lattice to decrease sensitivity to edge orientation also improves the signal information density up to about 30 percent at high SNRs.

Optimal estimation of spatially variable recharge and transmissivity fields under steady-state groundwater flow. Part 1. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Wendy D.; Tankersley, Claude D.

1994-05-01

Stochastic methods are used to analyze two-dimensional steady groundwater flow subject to spatially variable recharge and transmissivity. Approximate partial differential equations are developed for the covariances and cross-covariances between the random head, transmissivity and recharge fields. Closed-form solutions of these equations are obtained using Fourier transform techniques. The resulting covariances and cross-covariances can be incorporated into a Bayesian conditioning procedure which provides optimal estimates of the recharge, transmissivity and head fields given available measurements of any or all of these random fields. Results show that head measurements contain valuable information for estimating the random recharge field. However, when recharge is treated as a spatially variable random field, the value of head measurements for estimating the transmissivity field can be reduced considerably. In a companion paper, the method is applied to a case study of the Upper Floridan Aquifer in NE Florida.

Community assembly processes underlying phytoplankton and bacterioplankton across a hydrologic change in a human-impacted river.

PubMed

Isabwe, Alain; Yang, Jun R; Wang, Yongming; Liu, Lemian; Chen, Huihuang; Yang, Jun

2018-07-15

Although the influence of microbial community assembly processes on aquatic ecosystem function and biodiversity is well known, the processes that govern planktonic communities in human-impacted rivers remain largely unstudied. Here, we used multivariate statistics and a null model approach to test the hypothesis that environmental conditions and obstructed dispersal opportunities, dictate a deterministic community assembly for phytoplankton and bacterioplankton across contrasting hydrographic conditions in a subtropical mid-sized river (Jiulong River, southeast China). Variation partitioning analysis showed that the explanatory power of local environmental variables was larger than that of the spatial variables for both plankton communities during the dry season. During the wet season, phytoplankton community variation was mainly explained by local environmental variables, whereas the variance in bacterioplankton was explained by both environmental and spatial predictors. The null model based on Raup-Crick coefficients for both planktonic groups suggested little evidences of the stochastic processes involving dispersal and random distribution. Our results showed that hydrological change and landscape structure act together to cause divergence in communities along the river channel, thereby dictating a deterministic assembly and that selection exceeds dispersal limitation during the dry season. Therefore, to protect the ecological integrity of human-impacted rivers, watershed managers should not only consider local environmental conditions but also dispersal routes to account for the effect of regional species pool on local communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fire drives transcontinental variation in tree birch defense against browsing by snowshoe hares

Treesearch

John P. Bryant; Thomas P. Clausen; Robert K. Swihart; Simon M. Landhäusser; Michael T. Stevens; Christopher D. B. Hawkins; Suzanne Carrière; Andrei P. Kirilenko; Alasdair M. Veitch; Richard A. Popko; David T. Cleland; Joseph H. Williams; Walter J. Jakubas; Michael R. Carlson; Karin Lehmkuhl Bodony; Merben Cebrian; Thomas F. Paragi; Peter M. Picone; Jeffery E. Moore; Edmond C. Packee; Thomas Malone

2009-01-01

Fire has been the dominant disturbance in boreal America since the Pleistocene, resulting in a spatial mosaic in which the most fire occurs in the continental northwest. Spatial variation in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) density reflects the fire mosaic. Because fire initiates secondary forest succession, a fire mosaic creates...

Topography-mediated controls on local vegetation phenology estimated from MODIS vegetation index

Treesearch

Taehee Hwang; Conghe Song; James Vose; Lawrence Band

2011-01-01

Forest canopy phenology is an important constraint on annual water and carbon budgets, and responds to regional interannual climate variation. In steep terrain, there are complex spatial variations in phenology due to topographic influences on microclimate, community composition, and available soil moisture. In this study, we investigate spatial patterns of phenology...

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Surface Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived from Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Mark; Rowe, Clinton; Kuivinen, Karl; Mote, Thomas

1996-01-01

The primary goals of this research were to identify and begin to comprehend the spatial and temporal variations in surface characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet using passive microwave observations, physically-based models of the snowpack and field observations of snowpack and firn properties.

The spatial and metabolic basis of colony size variation.

PubMed

Chacón, Jeremy M; Möbius, Wolfram; Harcombe, William R

2018-03-01

Spatial structure impacts microbial growth and interactions, with ecological and evolutionary consequences. It is therefore important to quantitatively understand how spatial proximity affects interactions in different environments. We tested how proximity influences colony size when either Escherichia coli or Salmonella enterica are grown on various carbon sources. The importance of colony location changed with species and carbon source. Spatially explicit, genome-scale metabolic modeling recapitulated observed colony size variation. Competitors that determine territory size, according to Voronoi diagrams, were the most important drivers of variation in colony size. However, the relative importance of different competitors changed through time. Further, the effect of location increased when colonies took up resources quickly relative to the diffusion of limiting resources. These analyses made it apparent that the importance of location was smaller than expected for experiments with S. enterica growing on glucose. The accumulation of toxic byproducts appeared to limit the growth of large colonies and reduced variation in colony size. Our work provides an experimentally and theoretically grounded understanding of how location interacts with metabolism and diffusion to influence microbial interactions.

Spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers in marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Xu, Henglong; Jiang, Yong; Xu, Guangjian

2016-11-15

Body-size spectra has proved to be a useful taxon-free resolution to summarize a community structure for bioassessment. The spatial variations in annual cycles of body-size spectra of planktonic ciliates and their environmental drivers were studied based on an annual dataset. Samples were biweekly collected at five stations in a bay of the Yellow Sea, northern China during a 1-year cycle. Based on a multivariate approach, the second-stage analysis, it was shown that the annual cycles of the body-size spectra were significantly different among five sampling stations. Correlation analysis demonstrated that the spatial variations in the body-size spectra were significantly related to changes of environmental conditions, especially dissolved nitrogen, alone or in combination with salinity and dissolve oxygen. Based on results, it is suggested that the nutrients may be the environmental drivers to shape the spatial variations in annual cycles of planktonic ciliates in terms of body-size spectra in marine ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dissecting the multi-scale spatial relationship of earthworm assemblages with soil environmental variability.

PubMed

Jiménez, Juan J; Decaëns, Thibaud; Lavelle, Patrick; Rossi, Jean-Pierre

2014-12-05

Studying the drivers and determinants of species, population and community spatial patterns is central to ecology. The observed structure of community assemblages is the result of deterministic abiotic (environmental constraints) and biotic factors (positive and negative species interactions), as well as stochastic colonization events (historical contingency). We analyzed the role of multi-scale spatial component of soil environmental variability in structuring earthworm assemblages in a gallery forest from the Colombian "Llanos". We aimed to disentangle the spatial scales at which species assemblages are structured and determine whether these scales matched those expressed by soil environmental variables. We also tested the hypothesis of the "single tree effect" by exploring the spatial relationships between root-related variables and soil nutrient and physical variables in structuring earthworm assemblages. Multivariate ordination techniques and spatially explicit tools were used, namely cross-correlograms, Principal Coordinates of Neighbor Matrices (PCNM) and variation partitioning analyses. The relationship between the spatial organization of earthworm assemblages and soil environmental parameters revealed explicitly multi-scale responses. The soil environmental variables that explained nested population structures across the multi-spatial scale gradient differed for earthworms and assemblages at the very-fine- (<10 m) to medium-scale (10-20 m). The root traits were correlated with areas of high soil nutrient contents at a depth of 0-5 cm. Information on the scales of PCNM variables was obtained using variogram modeling. Based on the size of the plot, the PCNM variables were arbitrarily allocated to medium (>30 m), fine (10-20 m) and very fine scales (<10 m). Variation partitioning analysis revealed that the soil environmental variability explained from less than 1% to as much as 48% of the observed earthworm spatial variation. A large proportion of the spatial variation did not depend on the soil environmental variability for certain species. This finding could indicate the influence of contagious biotic interactions, stochastic factors, or unmeasured relevant soil environmental variables.

Temporal and spatial variations in fly ash quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hower, J.C.; Trimble, A.S.; Eble, C.F.

2001-01-01

Fly ash quality, both as the amount of petrographically distinguishable carbons and in chemistry, varies in both time and space. Temporal variations are a function of a number of variables. Variables can include variations in the coal blend organic petrography, mineralogy, and chemistry; variations in the pulverization of the coal, both as a function of the coal's Hardgrove grindability index and as a function of the maintenance and settings of the pulverizers; and variations in the operating conditions of the boiler, including changes in the pollution control system. Spatial variation, as an instantaneous measure of fly ash characteristics, should not involve changes in the first two sets of variables listed above. Spatial variations are a function of the gas flow within the boiler and ducts, certain flow conditions leading to a tendency for segregation of the less-dense carbons in one portion of the gas stream. Caution must be applied in sampling fly ash. Samples from a single bin, or series of bins, m ay not be representative of the whole fly ash, providing a biased view of the nature of the material. Further, it is generally not possible to be certain about variation until the analysis of the ash is complete. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Large trench-parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones.

PubMed

Song, Teh-Ru Alex; Simons, Mark

2003-08-01

We demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), whereas regions with strongly positive TPGA are relatively aseismic. These observations suggest that, over time scales up to at least 1 million years, spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore-arc. The correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench-parellel variations in fore-arc topography, gravity, and seismogenic behavior.

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

PubMed

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

2012-01-01

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

Diagnostic modeling of trace metal partitioning in south San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, T. W.; Baptista, A. M.; Kuwabara, J.S.; Flegal, A.R.

1995-01-01

The numerical results indicate that aqueous speciation will control basin-scale spatial variations in the apparent distribution coefficient, Kda, if the system is close to equilibrium. However, basin-scale spatial variations in Kda are determined by the location of the sources of metal and the suspended solids concentration of the receiving water if the system is far from equilibrium. The overall spatial variability in Kda also increases as the system moves away from equilibrium.

Plasticity of Human Spatial Cognition: Spatial Language and Cognition Covary across Cultures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haun, Daniel B. M.; Rapold, Christian J.; Janzen, Gabriele; Levinson, Stephen C.

2011-01-01

The present paper explores cross-cultural variation in spatial cognition by comparing spatial reconstruction tasks by Dutch and Namibian elementary school children. These two communities differ in the way they predominantly express spatial relations in language. Four experiments investigate cognitive strategy preferences across different levels of…

Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Monitoring Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, I.; Pilz, J.

2009-04-01

Pakistan has much diversity in seasonal variation of different locations. Some areas are in desserts and remain very hot and waterless, for example coastal areas are situated along the Arabian Sea and have very warm season and a little rainfall. Some areas are covered with mountains, have very low temperature and heavy rainfall; for instance Karakoram ranges. The most important variables that have an impact on the climate are temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and elevation. Furthermore, it is hard to find homogeneous regions in Pakistan with respect to climate variation. Identification of homogeneous regions in Pakistan can be useful in many aspects. It can be helpful for prediction of the climate in the sub-regions and for optimizing the number of monitoring sites. In the earlier literature no one tried to identify homogeneous regions of Pakistan with respect to climate variation. There are only a few papers about spatio-temporal clustering of monitoring network. Steinhaus (1956) presented the well-known K-means clustering method. It can identify a predefined number of clusters by iteratively assigning centriods to clusters based. Castro et al. (1997) developed a genetic heuristic algorithm to solve medoids based clustering. Their method is based on genetic recombination upon random assorting recombination. The suggested method is appropriate for clustering the attributes which have genetic characteristics. Sap and Awan (2005) presented a robust weighted kernel K-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering climate data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data. Soltani and Modarres (2006) used hierarchical and divisive cluster analysis to categorize patterns of rainfall in Iran. They only considered rainfall at twenty-eight monitoring sites and concluded that eight clusters existed. Soltani and Modarres (2006) classified the sites by using only average rainfall of sites, they did not consider time replications and spatial coordinates. Kerby et.al (2007) purposed spatial clustering method based on likelihood. They took account of the geographic locations through the variance covariance matrix. Their purposed method works like hierarchical clustering methods. Moreovere, it is inappropiriate for time replication data and could not perform well for large number of sites. Tuia.et.al (2008) used scan statistics for identifying spatio-temporal clusters for fire sequences in the Tuscany region in Italy. The scan statistics clustering method was developed by Kulldorff et al. (1997) to detect spatio-temporal clusters in epidemiology and assessing their significance. The purposed scan statistics method is used only for univariate discrete stochastic random variables. In this paper we make use of a very simple approach for spatio-temporal clustering which can create separable and homogeneous clusters. Most of the clustering methods are based on Euclidean distances. It is well known that geographic coordinates are spherical coordinates and estimating Euclidean distances from spherical coordinates is inappropriate. As a transformation from geographic coordinates to rectangular (D-plane) coordinates we use the Lambert projection method. The partition around medoids clustering method is incorporated on the data including D-plane coordinates. Ordinary kriging is taken as validity measure for the precipitation data. The kriging results for clusters are more accurate and have less variation compared to complete monitoring network precipitation data. References Casto.V.E and Murray.A.T (1997). Spatial Clustering with Data Mining with Genetic Algorithms. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.56.8573 Kaufman.L and Rousseeuw.P.J (1990). Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis. Wiley series of Probability and Mathematical Statistics, New York. Kulldorf.M (1997). A spatial scan statistic. Commun. Stat.-Theor. Math. 26(6), 1481-1496 Kerby. A , Marx. D, Samal. A and Adamchuck. V. (2007). Spatial Clustering Using the Likelihood Function. Seventh IEEE International Conference on Data Mining - Workshops Steinhaus.H (1956). Sur la division des corp materiels en parties. Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci., C1. III vol IV:801- 804 Snyder, J. P. (1987). Map Projection: A Working Manual. U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1395. Washington, DC: U. S. Government Printing Office, pp. 104-110 Sap.M.N and Awan. A.M (2005). Finding Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Climate Data Using Clustering. Proceedings of the International Conference on Cyberworlds (CW'05) Soltani.S and Modarres.R (2006). Classification of Spatio -Temporal Pattern of Rainfall in Iran: Using Hierarchical and Divisive Cluster Analysis. Journal of Spatial Hydrology Vol.6, No.2 Tuia.D, Ratle.F, Lasaponara.R, Telesca.L and Kanevski.M (2008). Scan Statistics Analysis for Forest Fire Clusters. Commun. in Nonlinear science and numerical simulation 13,1689-1694.

Monitoring tropical vegetation succession with LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, V. B. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

The shadowing problem, which is endemic to the use of LANDSAT in tropical areas, and the ability to model changes over space and through time are problems to be addressed when monitoring tropical vegetation succession. Application of a trend surface analysis model to major land cover classes in a mountainous region of the Phillipines shows that the spatial modeling of radiance values can provide a useful approach to tropical rain forest succession monitoring. Results indicate shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral responses. These variations can be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data. Using the model to estimate both elevation and spectral terrain surface as a posteriori inputs in the classification process leads to improved classification accuracy for vegetation of cover of this type. Spatial patterns depicted by the MSS data reflect the measurement of responses to spatial processes acting at several scales.

Food web dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, D.L.; Trexler, J.C.; Donalson, D.D.

2008-01-01

A spatially explicit model is developed to simulate the small fish community and its underlying food web, in the freshwater marshes of the Everglades. The community is simplified to a few small fish species feeding on periphyton and invertebrates. Other compartments are detritus, crayfish, and a piscivorous fish species. This unit food web model is applied to each of the 10,000 spatial cells on a 100 x 100 pixel landscape. Seasonal variation in water level is assumed and rules are assigned for fish movement in response to rising and falling water levels, which can cause many spatial cells to alternate between flooded and dry conditions. It is shown that temporal variations of water level on a spatially heterogeneous landscape can maintain at least three competing fish species. In addition, these environmental factors can strongly affect the temporal variation of the food web caused by top-down control from the piscivorous fish.

Profiles of environmental contaminants in hawksbill turtle egg yolks reflect local to distant pollution sources among nesting beaches in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico.

PubMed

Muñoz, Cynthia C; Vermeiren, Peter

2018-04-01

Knowledge of spatial variation in pollutant profiles among sea turtle nesting locations is limited. This poses challenges in identifying processes shaping this variability and sets constraints to the conservation management of sea turtles and their use as biomonitoring tools for environmental pollutants. We aimed to increase understanding of the spatial variation in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), organochlorine pesticide (OCP) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) compounds among nesting beaches. We link the spatial variation to turtle migration patterns and the persistence of these pollutants. Specifically, using gas chromatography, we confirmed maternal transfer of a large number of compounds (n = 68 out of 69) among 104 eggs collected from 21 nests across three nesting beaches within the Yucatán Peninsula, one of the world's most important rookeries for hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). High variation in PAH profiles was observed among beaches, using multivariate correspondence analysis and univariate Peto-Prentice tests, reflecting local acquisition during recent migration movements. Diagnostic PAH ratios reflected petrogenic origins in Celestún, the beach closest to petroleum industries in the Gulf of Mexico. By contrast, pollution profiles of OCPs and PCBs showed high similarity among beaches, reflecting the long-term accumulation of these pollutants at regional scales. Therefore, spatial planning of protected areas and the use of turtle eggs in biomonitoring needs to account for the spatial variation in pollution profiles among nesting beaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

spsann - optimization of sample patterns using spatial simulated annealing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel-Rosa, Alessandro; Heuvelink, Gerard; Vasques, Gustavo; Anjos, Lúcia

2015-04-01

There are many algorithms and computer programs to optimize sample patterns, some private and others publicly available. A few have only been presented in scientific articles and text books. This dispersion and somewhat poor availability is holds back to their wider adoption and further development. We introduce spsann, a new R-package for the optimization of sample patterns using spatial simulated annealing. R is the most popular environment for data processing and analysis. Spatial simulated annealing is a well known method with widespread use to solve optimization problems in the soil and geo-sciences. This is mainly due to its robustness against local optima and easiness of implementation. spsann offers many optimizing criteria for sampling for variogram estimation (number of points or point-pairs per lag distance class - PPL), trend estimation (association/correlation and marginal distribution of the covariates - ACDC), and spatial interpolation (mean squared shortest distance - MSSD). spsann also includes the mean or maximum universal kriging variance (MUKV) as an optimizing criterion, which is used when the model of spatial variation is known. PPL, ACDC and MSSD were combined (PAN) for sampling when we are ignorant about the model of spatial variation. spsann solves this multi-objective optimization problem scaling the objective function values using their maximum absolute value or the mean value computed over 1000 random samples. Scaled values are aggregated using the weighted sum method. A graphical display allows to follow how the sample pattern is being perturbed during the optimization, as well as the evolution of its energy state. It is possible to start perturbing many points and exponentially reduce the number of perturbed points. The maximum perturbation distance reduces linearly with the number of iterations. The acceptance probability also reduces exponentially with the number of iterations. R is memory hungry and spatial simulated annealing is a computationally intensive method. As such, many strategies were used to reduce the computation time and memory usage: a) bottlenecks were implemented in C++, b) a finite set of candidate locations is used for perturbing the sample points, and c) data matrices are computed only once and then updated at each iteration instead of being recomputed. spsann is available at GitHub under a licence GLP Version 2.0 and will be further developed to: a) allow the use of a cost surface, b) implement other sensitive parts of the source code in C++, c) implement other optimizing criteria, d) allow to add or delete points to/from an existing point pattern.

The Bayesian group lasso for confounded spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Generalized linear mixed models for spatial processes are widely used in applied statistics. In many applications of the spatial generalized linear mixed model (SGLMM), the goal is to obtain inference about regression coefficients while achieving optimal predictive ability. When implementing the SGLMM, multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effects can make computation challenging and influence inference. We present a Bayesian group lasso prior with a single tuning parameter that can be chosen to optimize predictive ability of the SGLMM and jointly regularize the regression coefficients and spatial random effect. We implement the group lasso SGLMM using efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and demonstrate how multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effect can be monitored as a derived quantity. To test our method, we compared several parameterizations of the SGLMM using simulated data and two examples from plant ecology and disease ecology. In all examples, problematic levels multicollinearity occurred and influenced sampling efficiency and inference. We found that the group lasso prior resulted in roughly twice the effective sample size for MCMC samples of regression coefficients and can have higher and less variable predictive accuracy based on out-of-sample data when compared to the standard SGLMM.

Correcting Biases in a lower resolution global circulation model with data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander

2016-04-01

With this work, we aim at developping a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias. First, through a preliminary run, we estimate the bias of the model and its possible sources. Then, we establish a forcing term which is directly added inside the model's equations. We create an ensemble of runs and consider the forcing term as a control variable during the assimilation of observations. We then use this analysed forcing term to correct the bias of the model. Since the forcing is added inside the model, it acts as a source term, unlike external forcings such as wind. This procedure has been developed and successfully tested with a twin experiment on a Lorenz 95 model. It is currently being applied and tested on the sea ice ocean NEMO LIM model, which is used in the PredAntar project. NEMO LIM is a global and low resolution (2 degrees) coupled model (hydrodynamic model and sea ice model) with long time steps allowing simulations over several decades. Due to its low resolution, the model is subject to bias in area where strong currents are present. We aim at correcting this bias by using perturbed current fields from higher resolution models and randomly generated perturbations. The random perturbations need to be constrained in order to respect the physical properties of the ocean, and not create unwanted phenomena. To construct those random perturbations, we first create a random field with the Diva tool (Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis). Using a cost function, this tool penalizes abrupt variations in the field, while using a custom correlation length. It also decouples disconnected areas based on topography. Then, we filter the field to smoothen it and remove small scale variations. We use this field as a random stream function, and take its derivatives to get zonal and meridional velocity fields. We also constrain the stream function along the coasts in order not to have currents perpendicular to the coast. The randomly generated stochastic forcing are then directly injected into the NEMO LIM model's equations in order to force the model at each timestep, and not only during the assimilation step. Results from a twin experiment will be presented. This method is being applied to a real case, with observations on the sea surface height available from the mean dynamic topography of CNES (Centre national d'études spatiales). The model, the bias correction, and more extensive forcings, in particular with a three dimensional structure and a time-varying component, will also be presented.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and spatial climatic variations in Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary J.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Patricia M.

1998-08-01

Analyses of more than 40 years of climatic data reveal intriguing spatial variations in climatic patterns for Beringia (North-eastern Siberia and Alaska), aiding the understanding of the hierarchy of climatic controls that operate at different spatial scales within the Arctic. A synoptic climatology, using a subjective classification methodology on January and July sea level pressure, and July 500 hPa height anomaly patterns, identified 13 major atmospheric circulation patterns (26 pairs consisting of 13 synoptic/temperature and 13 synoptic/precipitation comparisons) that occur over Beringia. Composite anomaly maps of circulation, temperature, and precipitation described the spatial variability of surface climatic responses to circulation. Results indicate that nine synoptic pairs yield homogeneous surface climatic anomaly patterns throughout most of Beringia. However, many of the surface climatic responses illustrate heterogeneous anomaly patterns as a result of variations in circulation controls, such as troughing over East Asia and the Pacific subtropical high superimposed over topography, with small shifts in atmospheric circulation dramatically altering spatial variations of anomaly patterns. Distinctive contrasts in climatic responses, as suggested from ten synoptic pairs, are clearly evident for Western Beringia versus Eastern Beringia. These results offer important implications for scholars interested in assessing late Quaternary climatic change in the region from interannual to millennial timescales.

Spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan: A nationwide study.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2016-02-15

Several studies have reported the burden of climate change on extreme heat-related mortality or morbidity. However, few studies have investigated the spatial and temporal variation in emergency transport during periods of extreme heat on a national scale. Daily emergency ambulance dispatch data from 2007 to 2010 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. The temporal variability in the relationship between heat and morbidity in each prefecture was estimated using Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model and adjusted for time trends. The spatial variability in the heat-morbidity relationships between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate meta-analysis. A total of 5,289,660 emergency transports were reported during the summer months (June through September) within the study period. The overall cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th percentile vs. the minimum morbidity percentile was 1.292 (95% CI: 1.251-1.333) for all causes, 1.039 (95% CI: 0.989-1.091) for cardiovascular diseases, and 1.287 (95% CI: 1.210-1.368) for respiratory diseases. Temporal variation in the estimated effects indicated a non-linear relationship, and there were differences in the temporal variations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific morbidity. Spatial variation between prefectures was observed for all causes (Cochran Q test, p<0.001; I(2)=45.8%); however, there was no significant spatial heterogeneity for cardiovascular (Cochran Q test, p=0.054; I(2)=15.1%) and respiratory (Cochran Q test, p=0.681; I(2)=1.0%) diseases. Our nationwide study demonstrated differences in the spatial and temporal variations in the relative risk for all-cause and cause-specific emergency transport during periods of extreme heat in Japan between 2007 and 2010. Our results suggest that public health strategies aimed at controlling heat-related morbidity should be tailored according to region-specific weather conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A variance-decomposition approach to investigating multiscale habitat associations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Edwards, T.C.

2006-01-01

The recognition of the importance of spatial scale in ecology has led many researchers to take multiscale approaches to studying habitat associations. However, few of the studies that investigate habitat associations at multiple spatial scales have considered the potential effects of cross-scale correlations in measured habitat variables. When cross-scale correlations in such studies are strong, conclusions drawn about the relative strength of habitat associations at different spatial scales may be inaccurate. Here we adapt and demonstrate an analytical technique based on variance decomposition for quantifying the influence of cross-scale correlations on multiscale habitat associations. We used the technique to quantify the variation in nest-site locations of Red-naped Sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) and Northern Flickers (Colaptes auratus) associated with habitat descriptors at three spatial scales. We demonstrate how the method can be used to identify components of variation that are associated only with factors at a single spatial scale as well as shared components of variation that represent cross-scale correlations. Despite the fact that no explanatory variables in our models were highly correlated (r < 0.60), we found that shared components of variation reflecting cross-scale correlations accounted for roughly half of the deviance explained by the models. These results highlight the importance of both conducting habitat analyses at multiple spatial scales and of quantifying the effects of cross-scale correlations in such analyses. Given the limits of conventional analytical techniques, we recommend alternative methods, such as the variance-decomposition technique demonstrated here, for analyzing habitat associations at multiple spatial scales. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Uncovering Spatial Variation in Acoustic Environments Using Sound Mapping.

PubMed

Job, Jacob R; Myers, Kyle; Naghshineh, Koorosh; Gill, Sharon A

2016-01-01

Animals select and use habitats based on environmental features relevant to their ecology and behavior. For animals that use acoustic communication, the sound environment itself may be a critical feature, yet acoustic characteristics are not commonly measured when describing habitats and as a result, how habitats vary acoustically over space and time is poorly known. Such considerations are timely, given worldwide increases in anthropogenic noise combined with rapidly accumulating evidence that noise hampers the ability of animals to detect and interpret natural sounds. Here, we used microphone arrays to record the sound environment in three terrestrial habitats (forest, prairie, and urban) under ambient conditions and during experimental noise introductions. We mapped sound pressure levels (SPLs) over spatial scales relevant to diverse taxa to explore spatial variation in acoustic habitats and to evaluate the number of microphones needed within arrays to capture this variation under both ambient and noisy conditions. Even at small spatial scales and over relatively short time spans, SPLs varied considerably, especially in forest and urban habitats, suggesting that quantifying and mapping acoustic features could improve habitat descriptions. Subset maps based on input from 4, 8, 12 and 16 microphones differed slightly (< 2 dBA/pixel) from those based on full arrays of 24 microphones under ambient conditions across habitats. Map differences were more pronounced with noise introductions, particularly in forests; maps made from only 4-microphones differed more (> 4 dBA/pixel) from full maps than the remaining subset maps, but maps with input from eight microphones resulted in smaller differences. Thus, acoustic environments varied over small spatial scales and variation could be mapped with input from 4-8 microphones. Mapping sound in different environments will improve understanding of acoustic environments and allow us to explore the influence of spatial variation in sound on animal ecology and behavior.

Use of LANDSAT imagery for wildlife habitat mapping in northeast and eastcentral Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lent, P. C. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. There is strong indication that spatially rare feature classes may be missed in clustering classifications based on 2% random sampling. Therefore, it seems advisable to augment random sampling for cluster analysis with directed sampling of any spatially rare features which are relevant to the analysis.

A Randomized Trial of an Elementary School Mathematics Software Intervention: Spatial-Temporal Math

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutherford, Teomara; Farkas, George; Duncan, Greg; Burchinal, Margaret; Kibrick, Melissa; Graham, Jeneen; Richland, Lindsey; Tran, Natalie; Schneider, Stephanie; Duran, Lauren; Martinez, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Fifty-two low performing schools were randomly assigned to receive Spatial-Temporal (ST) Math, a supplemental mathematics software and instructional program, in second/third or fourth/fifth grades or to a business-as-usual control. Analyses reveal a negligible effect of ST Math on mathematics scores, which did not differ significantly across…

Variability in Soil Properties at Different Spatial Scales (1 m to 1 km) in a Deciduous Forest Ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garten Jr, Charles T; Kang, S.; Brice, Deanne Jane

2007-01-01

The purpose of this research was to test the hypothesis that variability in 11 soil properties, related to soil texture and soil C and N, would increase from small (1 m) to large (1 km) spatial scales in a temperate, mixed-hardwood forest ecosystem in east Tennessee, USA. The results were somewhat surprising and indicated that a fundamental assumption in geospatial analysis, namely that variability increases with increasing spatial scale, did not apply for at least five of the 11 soil properties measured over a 0.5-km2 area. Composite mineral soil samples (15 cm deep) were collected at 1, 5, 10, 50,more » 250, and 500 m distances from a center point along transects in a north, south, east, and westerly direction. A null hypothesis of equal variance at different spatial scales was rejected (P{le}0.05) for mineral soil C concentration, silt content, and the C-to-N ratios in particulate organic matter (POM), mineral-associated organic matter (MOM), and whole surface soil. Results from different tests of spatial variation, based on coefficients of variation or a Mantel test, led to similar conclusions about measurement variability and geographic distance for eight of the 11 variables examined. Measurements of mineral soil C and N concentrations, C concentrations in MOM, extractable soil NH{sub 4}-N, and clay contents were just as variable at smaller scales (1-10 m) as they were at larger scales (50-500 m). On the other hand, measurement variation in mineral soil C-to-N ratios, MOM C-to-N ratios, and the fraction of soil C in POM clearly increased from smaller to larger spatial scales. With the exception of extractable soil NH4-N, measured soil properties in the forest ecosystem could be estimated (with 95% confidence) to within 15% of their true mean with a relatively modest number of sampling points (n{le}25). For some variables, scaling up variation from smaller to larger spatial domains within the ecosystem could be relatively easy because small-scale variation may be indicative of variation at larger scales.« less

Longitudinal variability in Jupiter's zonal winds derived from multi-wavelength HST observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Perianne E.; Morales-Juberías, Raúl; Simon, Amy; Gaulme, Patrick; Wong, Michael H.; Cosentino, Richard G.

2018-06-01

Multi-wavelength Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of Jupiter from the Outer Planets Atmospheres Legacy (OPAL) and Wide Field Coverage for Juno (WFCJ) programs in 2015, 2016, and 2017 are used to derive wind profiles as a function of latitude and longitude. Wind profiles are typically zonally averaged to reduce measurement uncertainties. However, doing this destroys any variations of the zonal-component of winds in the longitudinal direction. Here, we present the results derived from using a "sliding-window" correlation method. This method adds longitudinal specificity, and allows for the detection of spatial variations in the zonal winds. Spatial variations are identified in two jets: 1 at 17 ° N, the location of a prominent westward jet, and the other at 7 ° S, the location of the chevrons. Temporal and spatial variations at the 24°N jet and the 5-μm hot spots are also examined.

Effects of variations of stage and flux at different frequencies on the estimates using river stage tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. L.; Yeh, T. C. J.; Wen, J. C.

2017-12-01

This study is to investigate the ability of river stage tomography to estimate the spatial distribution of hydraulic transmissivity (T), storage coefficient (S), and diffusivity (D) in groundwater basins using information of groundwater level variations induced by periodic variations of stream stage, and infiltrated flux from the stream boundary. In order to accomplish this objective, the sensitivity and correlation of groundwater heads with respect to the hydraulic properties is first conducted to investigate the spatial characteristics of groundwater level in response to the stream variations at different frequencies. Results of the analysis show that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of heads at an observation well in response to periodic river stage variations are highly correlated despite different frequencies. On the other hand, the spatial patterns of the sensitivity of the observed head to river flux boundaries at different frequencies are different. Specifically, the observed head is highly correlated with T at the region between the stream and observation well when the high-frequency periodic flux is considered. On the other hand, it is highly correlated with T at the region between monitoring well and the boundary opposite to the stream when the low-frequency periodic flux is prescribed to the stream. We also find that the spatial distributions of the sensitivity of observed head to S variation are highly correlated with all frequencies in spite of heads or fluxes stream boundary. Subsequently, the differences of the spatial correlations of the observed heads to the hydraulic properties under the head and flux boundary conditions are further investigated by an inverse model (i.e., successive stochastic linear estimator). This investigation uses noise-free groundwater and stream data of a synthetic aquifer, where aquifer heterogeneity is known exactly. The ability of river stage tomography is then tested with these synthetic data sets to estimate T, S, and D distribution. The results reveal that boundary flux variations with different frequencies contain different information about the aquifer characteristics while the head boundary does not.

Spatial effects, sampling errors, and task specialization in the honey bee.

PubMed

Johnson, B R

2010-05-01

Task allocation patterns should depend on the spatial distribution of work within the nest, variation in task demand, and the movement patterns of workers, however, relatively little research has focused on these topics. This study uses a spatially explicit agent based model to determine whether such factors alone can generate biases in task performance at the individual level in the honey bees, Apis mellifera. Specialization (bias in task performance) is shown to result from strong sampling error due to localized task demand, relatively slow moving workers relative to nest size, and strong spatial variation in task demand. To date, specialization has been primarily interpreted with the response threshold concept, which is focused on intrinsic (typically genotypic) differences between workers. Response threshold variation and sampling error due to spatial effects are not mutually exclusive, however, and this study suggests that both contribute to patterns of task bias at the individual level. While spatial effects are strong enough to explain some documented cases of specialization; they are relatively short term and not explanatory for long term cases of specialization. In general, this study suggests that the spatial layout of tasks and fluctuations in their demand must be explicitly controlled for in studies focused on identifying genotypic specialists.

Robustness of spatial micronetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAndrew, Thomas C.; Danforth, Christopher M.; Bagrow, James P.

2015-04-01

Power lines, roadways, pipelines, and other physical infrastructure are critical to modern society. These structures may be viewed as spatial networks where geographic distances play a role in the functionality and construction cost of links. Traditionally, studies of network robustness have primarily considered the connectedness of large, random networks. Yet for spatial infrastructure, physical distances must also play a role in network robustness. Understanding the robustness of small spatial networks is particularly important with the increasing interest in microgrids, i.e., small-area distributed power grids that are well suited to using renewable energy resources. We study the random failures of links in small networks where functionality depends on both spatial distance and topological connectedness. By introducing a percolation model where the failure of each link is proportional to its spatial length, we find that when failures depend on spatial distances, networks are more fragile than expected. Accounting for spatial effects in both construction and robustness is important for designing efficient microgrids and other network infrastructure.

Analyzing spatial clustering and the spatiotemporal nature and trends of HIV/AIDS prevalence using GIS: the case of Malawi, 1994-2010.

PubMed

Zulu, Leo C; Kalipeni, Ezekiel; Johannes, Eliza

2014-05-23

Although local spatiotemporal analysis can improve understanding of geographic variation of the HIV epidemic, its drivers, and the search for targeted interventions, it is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite recent declines, Malawi's estimated 10.0% HIV prevalence (2011) remained among the highest globally. Using data on pregnant women in Malawi, this study 1) examines spatiotemporal trends in HIV prevalence 1994-2010, and 2) for 2010, identifies and maps the spatial variation/clustering of factors associated with HIV prevalence at district level. Inverse distance weighting was used within ArcGIS Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to generate continuous surfaces of HIV prevalence from point data (1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010) obtained from surveillance antenatal clinics. From the surfaces prevalence estimates were extracted at district level and the results mapped nationally. Spatial dependency (autocorrelation) and clustering of HIV prevalence were also analyzed. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with HIV prevalence for 2010 and their spatial variation/clustering mapped and compared to HIV clustering. Analysis revealed wide spatial variation in HIV prevalence at regional, urban/rural, district and sub-district levels. However, prevalence was spatially leveling out within and across 'sub-epidemics' while declining significantly after 1999. Prevalence exhibited statistically significant spatial dependence nationally following initial (1995-1999) localized, patchy low/high patterns as the epidemic spread rapidly. Locally, HIV "hotspots" clustered among eleven southern districts/cities while a "coldspot" captured configurations of six central region districts. Preliminary multiple regression of 2010 HIV prevalence produced a model with four significant explanatory factors (adjusted R2 = 0.688): mean distance to main roads, mean travel time to nearest transport, percentage that had taken an HIV test ever, and percentage attaining a senior primary education. Spatial clustering linked some factors to particular subsets of high HIV-prevalence districts. Spatial analysis enhanced understanding of local spatiotemporal variation in HIV prevalence, possible underlying factors, and potential for differentiated spatial targeting of interventions. Findings suggest that intervention strategies should also emphasize improved access to health/HIV services, basic education, and syphilis management, particularly in rural hotspot districts, as further research is done on drivers at finer scale.

Analyzing spatial clustering and the spatiotemporal nature and trends of HIV/AIDS prevalence using GIS: the case of Malawi, 1994-2010

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although local spatiotemporal analysis can improve understanding of geographic variation of the HIV epidemic, its drivers, and the search for targeted interventions, it is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite recent declines, Malawi’s estimated 10.0% HIV prevalence (2011) remained among the highest globally. Using data on pregnant women in Malawi, this study 1) examines spatiotemporal trends in HIV prevalence 1994-2010, and 2) for 2010, identifies and maps the spatial variation/clustering of factors associated with HIV prevalence at district level. Methods Inverse distance weighting was used within ArcGIS Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to generate continuous surfaces of HIV prevalence from point data (1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010) obtained from surveillance antenatal clinics. From the surfaces prevalence estimates were extracted at district level and the results mapped nationally. Spatial dependency (autocorrelation) and clustering of HIV prevalence were also analyzed. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with HIV prevalence for 2010 and their spatial variation/clustering mapped and compared to HIV clustering. Results Analysis revealed wide spatial variation in HIV prevalence at regional, urban/rural, district and sub-district levels. However, prevalence was spatially leveling out within and across ‘sub-epidemics’ while declining significantly after 1999. Prevalence exhibited statistically significant spatial dependence nationally following initial (1995-1999) localized, patchy low/high patterns as the epidemic spread rapidly. Locally, HIV “hotspots” clustered among eleven southern districts/cities while a “coldspot” captured configurations of six central region districts. Preliminary multiple regression of 2010 HIV prevalence produced a model with four significant explanatory factors (adjusted R2 = 0.688): mean distance to main roads, mean travel time to nearest transport, percentage that had taken an HIV test ever, and percentage attaining a senior primary education. Spatial clustering linked some factors to particular subsets of high HIV-prevalence districts. Conclusions Spatial analysis enhanced understanding of local spatiotemporal variation in HIV prevalence, possible underlying factors, and potential for differentiated spatial targeting of interventions. Findings suggest that intervention strategies should also emphasize improved access to health/HIV services, basic education, and syphilis management, particularly in rural hotspot districts, as further research is done on drivers at finer scale. PMID:24886573

Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous earthquake source models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Barall, M.

2011-01-01

Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the model to physical concepts. In a variant of the model, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.

Monte Carlo simulation of reflection spectra of random multilayer media strongly scattering and absorbing light

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meglinskii, I V

2001-12-31

The reflection spectra of a multilayer random medium - the human skin - strongly scattering and absorbing light are numerically simulated. The propagation of light in the medium and the absorption spectra are simulated by the stochastic Monte Carlo method, which combines schemes for calculations of real photon trajectories and the statistical weight method. The model takes into account the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of blood vessels, water, and melanin, the degree of blood oxygenation, and the hematocrit index. The attenuation of the incident radiation caused by reflection and refraction at Fresnel boundaries of layers inside the medium is also considered.more » The simulated reflection spectra are compared with the experimental reflection spectra of the human skin. It is shown that a set of parameters that was used to describe the optical properties of skin layers and their possible variations, despite being far from complete, is nevertheless sufficient for the simulation of the reflection spectra of the human skin and their quantitative analysis. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)« less

A new numerical benchmark for variably saturated variable-density flow and transport in porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guevara, Carlos; Graf, Thomas

2016-04-01

In subsurface hydrological systems, spatial and temporal variations in solute concentration and/or temperature may affect fluid density and viscosity. These variations could lead to potentially unstable situations, in which a dense fluid overlies a less dense fluid. These situations could produce instabilities that appear as dense plume fingers migrating downwards counteracted by vertical upwards flow of freshwater (Simmons et al., Transp. Porous Medium, 2002). As a result of unstable variable-density flow, solute transport rates are increased over large distances and times as compared to constant-density flow. The numerical simulation of variable-density flow in saturated and unsaturated media requires corresponding benchmark problems against which a computer model is validated (Diersch and Kolditz, Adv. Water Resour, 2002). Recorded data from a laboratory-scale experiment of variable-density flow and solute transport in saturated and unsaturated porous media (Simmons et al., Transp. Porous Medium, 2002) is used to define a new numerical benchmark. The HydroGeoSphere code (Therrien et al., 2004) coupled with PEST (www.pesthomepage.org) are used to obtain an optimized parameter set capable of adequately representing the data set by Simmons et al., (2002). Fingering in the numerical model is triggered using random hydraulic conductivity fields. Due to the inherent randomness, a large number of simulations were conducted in this study. The optimized benchmark model adequately predicts the plume behavior and the fate of solutes. This benchmark is useful for model verification of variable-density flow problems in saturated and/or unsaturated media.

Seasonal Patterns of Mixed Species Groups in Large East African Mammals

PubMed Central

Kiffner, Christian; Kioko, John; Leweri, Cecilia; Krause, Stefan

2014-01-01

Mixed mammal species groups are common in East African savannah ecosystems. Yet, it is largely unknown if co-occurrences of large mammals result from random processes or social preferences and if interspecific associations are consistent across ecosystems and seasons. Because species may exchange important information and services, understanding patterns and drivers of heterospecific interactions is crucial for advancing animal and community ecology. We recorded 5403 single and multi-species clusters in the Serengeti-Ngorongoro and Tarangire-Manyara ecosystems during dry and wet seasons and used social network analyses to detect patterns of species associations. We found statistically significant associations between multiple species and association patterns differed spatially and seasonally. Consistently, wildebeest and zebras preferred being associated with other species, whereas carnivores, African elephants, Maasai giraffes and Kirk's dik-diks avoided being in mixed groups. During the dry season, we found that the betweenness (a measure of importance in the flow of information or disease) of species did not differ from a random expectation based on species abundance. In contrast, in the wet season, we found that these patterns were not simply explained by variations in abundances, suggesting that heterospecific associations were actively formed. These seasonal differences in observed patterns suggest that interspecific associations may be driven by resource overlap when resources are limited and by resource partitioning or anti-predator advantages when resources are abundant. We discuss potential mechanisms that could drive seasonal variation in the cost-benefit tradeoffs that underpin the formation of mixed-species groups. PMID:25470495

Seasonal patterns of mixed species groups in large East African mammals.

PubMed

Kiffner, Christian; Kioko, John; Leweri, Cecilia; Krause, Stefan

2014-01-01

Mixed mammal species groups are common in East African savannah ecosystems. Yet, it is largely unknown if co-occurrences of large mammals result from random processes or social preferences and if interspecific associations are consistent across ecosystems and seasons. Because species may exchange important information and services, understanding patterns and drivers of heterospecific interactions is crucial for advancing animal and community ecology. We recorded 5403 single and multi-species clusters in the Serengeti-Ngorongoro and Tarangire-Manyara ecosystems during dry and wet seasons and used social network analyses to detect patterns of species associations. We found statistically significant associations between multiple species and association patterns differed spatially and seasonally. Consistently, wildebeest and zebras preferred being associated with other species, whereas carnivores, African elephants, Maasai giraffes and Kirk's dik-diks avoided being in mixed groups. During the dry season, we found that the betweenness (a measure of importance in the flow of information or disease) of species did not differ from a random expectation based on species abundance. In contrast, in the wet season, we found that these patterns were not simply explained by variations in abundances, suggesting that heterospecific associations were actively formed. These seasonal differences in observed patterns suggest that interspecific associations may be driven by resource overlap when resources are limited and by resource partitioning or anti-predator advantages when resources are abundant. We discuss potential mechanisms that could drive seasonal variation in the cost-benefit tradeoffs that underpin the formation of mixed-species groups.

Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

PubMed

Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

2013-07-01

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Non-parametric Approach to Constrain the Transfer Function in Reverberation Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan-Rong; Wang, Jian-Min; Bai, Jin-Ming

2016-11-01

Broad emission lines of active galactic nuclei stem from a spatially extended region (broad-line region, BLR) that is composed of discrete clouds and photoionized by the central ionizing continuum. The temporal behaviors of these emission lines are blurred echoes of continuum variations (I.e., reverberation mapping, RM) and directly reflect the structures and kinematic information of BLRs through the so-called transfer function (also known as the velocity-delay map). Based on the previous works of Rybicki and Press and Zu et al., we develop an extended, non-parametric approach to determine the transfer function for RM data, in which the transfer function is expressed as a sum of a family of relatively displaced Gaussian response functions. Therefore, arbitrary shapes of transfer functions associated with complicated BLR geometry can be seamlessly included, enabling us to relax the presumption of a specified transfer function frequently adopted in previous studies and to let it be determined by observation data. We formulate our approach in a previously well-established framework that incorporates the statistical modeling of continuum variations as a damped random walk process and takes into account long-term secular variations which are irrelevant to RM signals. The application to RM data shows the fidelity of our approach.

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in whole-tree transpiration in an aspen-dominated upland-to-wetland forest gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, Michael M.; Mackay, D. Scott; Ewers, Brent E.; Adelman, Jonathan D.; Kruger, Eric L.

2008-02-01

Assumed representative center-of-stand measurements are typical inputs to models that scale forest transpiration to stand and regional extents. These inputs do not consider gradients in transpiration at stand boundaries or along moisture gradients and therefore potentially bias the large-scale estimates. We measured half-hourly sap flux (JS) for 173 trees in a spatially explicit cyclic sampling design across a topographically controlled gradient between a forested wetland and upland forest in northern Wisconsin. Our analyses focused on three dominant species in the site: quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx), speckled alder (Alnus incana (DuRoi) Spreng), and white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.). Sapwood area (AS) was used to scale JS to whole tree transpiration (EC). Because spatial patterns imply underlying processes, geostatistical analyses were employed to quantify patterns of spatial autocorrelation across the site. A simple Jarvis type model parameterized using a Monte Carlo sampling approach was used to simulate EC (EC-SIM). EC-SIM was compared with observed EC(EC-OBS) and found to reproduce both the temporal trends and spatial variance of canopy transpiration. EC-SIM was then used to examine spatial autocorrelation as a function of environmental drivers. We found no spatial autocorrelation in JS across the gradient from forested wetland to forested upland. EC was spatially autocorrelated and this was attributed to spatial variation in AS which suggests species spatial patterns are important for understanding spatial estimates of transpiration. However, the range of autocorrelation in EC-SIM decreased linearly with increasing vapor pressure deficit, implying that consideration of spatial variation in the sensitivity of canopy stomatal conductance to D is also key to accurately scaling up transpiration in space.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of tri-trophic interactions: Spatial variation and effects of plant density.

PubMed

Abdala-Roberts, Luis; Parra-Tabla, Víctor; Moreira, Xoaquín; Ramos-Zapata, José

2017-02-01

The factors driving variation in species interactions are often unknown, and few studies have made a link between changes in interactions and the strength of selection. We report on spatial variation in functional responses by a seed predator (SP) and its parasitic wasps associated with the herb Ruellia nudiflora . We assessed the influence of plant density on consumer responses and determined whether density effects and spatial variation in functional responses altered natural selection by these consumers on the plant. We established common gardens at two sites in Yucatan, Mexico, and planted R. nudiflora at two densities in each garden. We recorded fruit output and SP and parasitoid attack; calculated relative fitness (seed number) under scenarios of three trophic levels (accounting for SP and parasitoid effects), two trophic levels (accounting for SP but not parasitoid effects), and one trophic level (no consumer effects); and compared selection strength on fruit number under these scenarios across sites and densities. There was spatial variation in SP recruitment, whereby the SP functional response was negatively density-dependent at one site but density-independent at the other; parasitoid responses were density-independent and invariant across sites. Site variation in SP attack led, in turn, to differences in SP selection on fruit output, and parasitoids did not alter SP selection. There were no significant effects of density at either site. Our results provide a link between consumer functional responses and consumer selection on plants, which deepens our understanding of geographic variation in the evolutionary outcomes of multitrophic interactions. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Estimation of spatial patterns of urban air pollution over a 4-week period from repeated 5-min measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillespie, Jonathan; Masey, Nicola; Heal, Mathew R.; Hamilton, Scott; Beverland, Iain J.

2017-02-01

Determination of intra-urban spatial variations in air pollutant concentrations for exposure assessment requires substantial time and monitoring equipment. The objective of this study was to establish if short-duration measurements of air pollutants can be used to estimate longer-term pollutant concentrations. We compared 5-min measurements of black carbon (BC) and particle number (PN) concentrations made once per week on 5 occasions, with 4 consecutive 1-week average nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations at 18 locations at a range of distances from busy roads in Glasgow, UK. 5-min BC and PN measurements (averaged over the two 5-min periods at the start and end of a week) explained 40-80%, and 7-64% respectively, of spatial variation in the intervening 1-week NO2 concentrations for individual weeks. Adjustment for variations in background concentrations increased the percentage of explained variation in the bivariate relationship between the full set of NO2 and BC measurements over the 4-week period from 28% to 50% prior to averaging of repeat measurements. The averages of five 5-min BC and PN measurements made over 5 weeks explained 75% and 33% respectively of the variation in average 1-week NO2 concentrations over the same period. The relatively high explained variation observed between BC and NO2 measured on different time scales suggests that, with appropriate steps to correct or average out temporal variations, repeated short-term measurements can be used to provide useful information on longer-term spatial patterns for these traffic-related pollutants.

Analysis of field-scale spatial correlations and variations of soil nutrients using geostatistics.

PubMed

Liu, Ruimin; Xu, Fei; Yu, Wenwen; Shi, Jianhan; Zhang, Peipei; Shen, Zhenyao

2016-02-01

Spatial correlations and soil nutrient variations are important for soil nutrient management. They help to reduce the negative impacts of agricultural nonpoint source pollution. Based on the sampled available nitrogen (AN), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK), soil nutrient data from 2010, the spatial correlation, was analyzed, and the probabilities of the nutrient's abundance or deficiency were discussed. This paper presents a statistical approach to spatial analysis, the spatial correlation analysis (SCA), which was originally developed for describing heterogeneity in the presence of correlated variation and based on ordinary kriging (OK) results. Indicator kriging (IK) was used to assess the susceptibility of excess of soil nutrients based on crop needs. The kriged results showed there was a distinct spatial variability in the concentration of all three soil nutrients. High concentrations of these three soil nutrients were found near Anzhou. As the distance from the center of town increased, the concentration of the soil nutrients gradually decreased. Spatially, the relationship between AN and AP was negative, and the relationship between AP and AK was not clear. The IK results showed that there were few areas with a risk of AN and AP overabundance. However, almost the entire study region was at risk of AK overabundance. Based on the soil nutrient distribution results, it is clear that the spatial variability of the soil nutrients differed throughout the study region. This spatial soil nutrient variability might be caused by different fertilizer types and different fertilizing practices.

Delineation and validation of river network spatial scales for water resources and fisheries management.

PubMed

Wang, Lizhu; Brenden, Travis; Cao, Yong; Seelbach, Paul

2012-11-01

Identifying appropriate spatial scales is critically important for assessing health, attributing data, and guiding management actions for rivers. We describe a process for identifying a three-level hierarchy of spatial scales for Michigan rivers. Additionally, we conduct a variance decomposition of fish occurrence, abundance, and assemblage metric data to evaluate how much observed variability can be explained by the three spatial scales as a gage of their utility for water resources and fisheries management. The process involved the development of geographic information system programs, statistical models, modification by experienced biologists, and simplification to meet the needs of policy makers. Altogether, 28,889 reaches, 6,198 multiple-reach segments, and 11 segment classes were identified from Michigan river networks. The segment scale explained the greatest amount of variation in fish abundance and occurrence, followed by segment class, and reach. Segment scale also explained the greatest amount of variation in 13 of the 19 analyzed fish assemblage metrics, with segment class explaining the greatest amount of variation in the other six fish metrics. Segments appear to be a useful spatial scale/unit for measuring and synthesizing information for managing rivers and streams. Additionally, segment classes provide a useful typology for summarizing the numerous segments into a few categories. Reaches are the foundation for the identification of segments and segment classes and thus are integral elements of the overall spatial scale hierarchy despite reaches not explaining significant variation in fish assemblage data.

Multi-scale spatial controls of understory vegetation in Douglas-fir–western hemlock forests of western Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Julia I. Burton; Lisa M. Ganio; Klaus J. Puettmann

2014-01-01

Forest understory vegetation is influenced by broad-scale variation in climate, intermediate scale variation in topography, disturbance and neighborhood interactions. However, little is known about how these multi-scale controls interact to influence observed spatial patterns. We examined relationships between the aggregated cover of understory plant species (%...

Understand the Air-Sea Coupling Processes in High Wind Conditions Using a Synthesized Data Analysis/modeling Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

secondary gap outflow that appeared in COAMPS simulations ( Cherrett 2006). Figure 3d shows similar SST spatial variations as in Fig. 3c with slight... Cherrett , R. C. 2006: Observed and Simulated temporal and spatial variations of the gap outflow region, M.S. Thesis, Meteorology Department, Naval

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN SOLAR RADIATION AND PHOTO-ENHANCED TOXICITY RISKS OF SPILLED OIL IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, ALASKA

EPA Science Inventory

Solar irradiance (W/m2) and downwelling diffuse attenuation coefficients (Kd; m-1) were determined in several locations in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, between April 2003 and December 2005 to assess temporal and spatial variation in solar radiation and the risks of photoenh...

Spatial variation in carrier dynamics along a single CdSSe nanowire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Jolie C.; Eldridge, Peter S.; Gundlach, Lars

2014-10-01

Ultrafast charge carrier dynamics along individual CdSxSe1-x nanowires has been measured. The use of an improved ultrafast Kerr-gated microscope allows for spatially resolved luminescence measurements along a single nanowire. Amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) was observed at high excitation fluences. Position dependent variations of ultrafast ASE dynamics were observed. SEM and colorimetric measurements showed that the difference in dynamics can be attributed to variations in non-radiative recombination rates along the wire. The dominant Shockley-Read recombination rate can be extracted from ASE dynamics and can be directly related to charge carrier mobility and defect density. Employing ASE as a probe for defect densities provides a new sub-micron spatially resolved, contactless method for measurements of charge carrier mobility.

Spatial modulation of above-the-gap cathodoluminescence in InP nanowires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tizei, L. H. G.; Zagonel, L. F.; Tencé, M.; Stéphan, O.; Kociak, M.; Chiaramonte, T.; Ugarte, D.; Cotta, M. A.

2013-12-01

We report the observation of light emission on wurtzite InP nanowires excited by fast electrons. The experiments were performed in a scanning transmission electron microscope using an in-house-built cathodoluminescence detector. Besides the exciton emission, at 850 nm, emission above the band gap from 400 to 800 nm was observed. In particular, this broad emission presented systematic periodic modulations indicating variations in the local excitation probability. The physical origin of the detected emission is not clear. Measurements of the spatial variation of the above-the-gap emission points to the formation of leaky cavity modes of a plasmonic nature along the nanowire length, indicating the wave nature of the excitation. We propose a phenomenological model, which fits closely the observed spatial variations.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

Landscape-Scale Controls on Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks on the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Taylor, Philip; Asner, Gregory; Dahlin, Kyla; Anderson, Christopher; Knapp, David; Martin, Roberta; Mascaro, Joseph; Chazdon, Robin; Cole, Rebecca; Wanek, Wolfgang; Hofhansl, Florian; Malavassi, Edgar; Vilchez-Alvarado, Braulio; Townsend, Alan

2015-01-01

Tropical forests store large amounts of carbon in tree biomass, although the environmental controls on forest carbon stocks remain poorly resolved. Emerging airborne remote sensing techniques offer a powerful approach to understand how aboveground carbon density (ACD) varies across tropical landscapes. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system to detect top-of-canopy tree height (TCH) and ACD across the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. LiDAR and field-estimated TCH and ACD were highly correlated across a wide range of forest ages and types. Top-of-canopy height (TCH) reached 67 m, and ACD surpassed 225 Mg C ha-1, indicating both that airborne CAO LiDAR-based estimates of ACD are accurate in tall, high-biomass forests and that the Osa Peninsula harbors some of the most carbon-rich forests in the Neotropics. We also examined the relative influence of lithologic, topoedaphic and climatic factors on regional patterns in ACD, which are known to influence ACD by regulating forest productivity and turnover. Analyses revealed a spatially nested set of factors controlling ACD patterns, with geologic variation explaining up to 16% of the mapped ACD variation at the regional scale, while local variation in topographic slope explained an additional 18%. Lithologic and topoedaphic factors also explained more ACD variation at 30-m than at 100-m spatial resolution, suggesting that environmental filtering depends on the spatial scale of terrain variation. Our result indicate that patterns in ACD are partially controlled by spatial variation in geologic history and geomorphic processes underpinning topographic diversity across landscapes. ACD also exhibited spatial autocorrelation, which may reflect biological processes that influence ACD, such as the assembly of species or phenotypes across the landscape, but additional research is needed to resolve how abiotic and biotic factors contribute to ACD variation across high biomass, high diversity tropical landscapes. PMID:26061884

Local topography shapes fine-scale spatial genetic structure in the Arkansas Valley evening primrose, Oenothera harringtonii (Onagraceae).

PubMed

Rhodes, Matthew K; Fant, Jeremie B; Skogen, Krissa A

2014-01-01

Identifying factors that shape the spatial distribution of genetic variation is crucial to understanding many population- and landscape-level processes. In this study, we explore fine-scale spatial genetic structure in Oenothera harringtonii (Onagraceae), an insect-pollinated, gravity-dispersed herb endemic to the grasslands of south-central and southeastern Colorado, USA. We genotyped 315 individuals with 11 microsatellite markers and utilized a combination of spatial autocorrelation analyses and landscape genetic models to relate life history traits and landscape features to dispersal processes. Spatial genetic structure was consistent with theoretical expectations of isolation by distance, but this pattern was weak (Sp = 0.00374). Anisotropic analyses indicated that spatial genetic structure was markedly directional, in this case consistent with increased dispersal along prominent slopes. Landscape genetic models subsequently confirmed that spatial genetic variation was significantly influenced by local topographic heterogeneity, specifically that geographic distance, elevation and aspect were important predictors of spatial genetic structure. Among these variables, geographic distance was ~68% more important than elevation in describing spatial genetic variation, and elevation was ~42% more important than aspect after removing the effect of geographic distance. From these results, we infer a mechanism of hydrochorous seed dispersal along major drainages aided by seasonal monsoon rains. Our findings suggest that landscape features may shape microevolutionary processes at much finer spatial scales than typically considered, and stress the importance of considering how particular dispersal vectors are influenced by their environmental context. © The American Genetic Association 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Simulating and mapping spatial complexity using multi-scale techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Cola, L.

1994-01-01

A central problem in spatial analysis is the mapping of data for complex spatial fields using relatively simple data structures, such as those of a conventional GIS. This complexity can be measured using such indices as multi-scale variance, which reflects spatial autocorrelation, and multi-fractal dimension, which characterizes the values of fields. These indices are computed for three spatial processes: Gaussian noise, a simple mathematical function, and data for a random walk. Fractal analysis is then used to produce a vegetation map of the central region of California based on a satellite image. This analysis suggests that real world data lie on a continuum between the simple and the random, and that a major GIS challenge is the scientific representation and understanding of rapidly changing multi-scale fields. -Author

Hospital staffing and local pay: an investigation into the impact of local variations in the competitiveness of nurses' pay on the staffing of hospitals in France.

PubMed

Combes, Jean-Baptiste; Delattre, Eric; Elliott, Bob; Skåtun, Diane

2015-09-01

Spatial wage theory suggests that employers in different regions may offer different pay rates to reflect local amenities and cost of living. Higher wages may be required to compensate for a less pleasant environment or a higher cost of living. If wages in a competing sector within an area are less flexible and therefore less competitive this may lead to an inability to employ staff. This paper considers the market for nursing staff in France where there is general regulation of wages and public hospitals compete for staff with the private hospital and non-hospital sectors. We consider two types of nursing staff, registered and assistant nurses and first establish the degree of spatial variation in the competitiveness of pay of nurses in public hospitals. We then consider whether these spatial variations are associated with variation in the employment of nursing staff. We find that despite regulation of pay in the public and private sector, there are substantial local variations in the competitiveness of nurses' pay. We find evidence that the spatial variations in the competitiveness of pay are associated with relative numbers of assistant nurses but not registered nurses. While we find the influence of the competitiveness of pay is small, it suggests that nonpay conditions may be an important factor in adjusting the labour market as might be expected in such a regulated market.

Climatic suitability, isolation by distance and river resistance explain genetic variation in a Brazilian whiptail lizard.

PubMed

Oliveira, Eliana Faria; Martinez, Pablo Ariel; São-Pedro, Vinícius Avelar; Gehara, Marcelo; Burbrink, Frank Thomas; Mesquita, Daniel Oliveira; Garda, Adrian Antonio; Colli, Guarino Rinaldi; Costa, Gabriel Correa

2018-03-01

Spatial patterns of genetic variation can help understand how environmental factors either permit or restrict gene flow and create opportunities for regional adaptations. Organisms from harsh environments such as the Brazilian semiarid Caatinga biome may reveal how severe climate conditions may affect patterns of genetic variation. Herein we combine information from mitochondrial DNA with physical and environmental features to study the association between different aspects of the Caatinga landscape and spatial genetic variation in the whiptail lizard Ameivula ocellifera. We investigated which of the climatic, environmental, geographical and/or historical components best predict: (1) the spatial distribution of genetic diversity, and (2) the genetic differentiation among populations. We found that genetic variation in A. ocellifera has been influenced mainly by temperature variability, which modulates connectivity among populations. Past climate conditions were important for shaping current genetic diversity, suggesting a time lag in genetic responses. Population structure in A. ocellifera was best explained by both isolation by distance and isolation by resistance (main rivers). Our findings indicate that both physical and climatic features are important for explaining the observed patterns of genetic variation across the xeric Caatinga biome.

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Spatial variation in pollinator-mediated selection on phenology, floral display and spur length in the orchid Gymnadenia conopsea.

PubMed

Chapurlat, Elodie; Ågren, Jon; Sletvold, Nina

2015-12-01

Spatial variation in plant-pollinator interactions may cause variation in pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits, but to establish this link conclusively experimental studies are needed. We quantified pollinator-mediated selection on flowering phenology and morphology in four populations of the fragrant orchid Gymnadenia conopsea, and compared selection mediated by diurnal and nocturnal pollinators in two of the populations. Variation in pollinator-mediated selection explained most of the among-population variation in the strength of directional and correlational selection. Pollinators mediated correlational selection on pairs of display traits, and on one display trait and spur length, a trait affecting pollination efficiency. Only nocturnal pollinators selected for longer spurs, and mediated stronger selection on the number of flowers compared with diurnal pollinators in one population. The two types of pollinators caused correlational selection on different pairs of traits and selected for different combinations of spur length and number of flowers. The results demonstrate that spatial variation in interactions with pollinators may result in differences in directional and correlational selection on floral traits in a plant with a semi-generalized pollination system, and suggest that differences in the relative importance of diurnal and nocturnal pollinators can cause variation in selection. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Dynamic Vertical Profiles of Peat Porewater Chemistry in a Northern Peatland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griffiths, Natalie A.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.

We measured pH, cations, nutrients, and total organic carbon (TOC) over 3 years to examine weekly to monthly variability in porewater chemistry depth profiles (0–3.0 m) in an ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota, USA. We also compared temporal variation at one location to spatial variation in depth profiles at 16 locations across the bog. Most solutes exhibited large gradients with depth. pH increased by two units and calcium concentrations increased over 20 fold with depth, and may reflect peatland development from minerotrophic to ombrotrophic conditions. Ammonium concentrations increased almost 20 fold and TOC concentrations decreased by half with depth, and thesemore » patterns likely reflect mineralization of peat or decomposition of TOC. There was also considerable temporal variation in the porewater chemistry depth profiles. Ammonium, soluble reactive phosphorus, and potassium showed greater temporal variation in near-surface porewater, while pH, calcium, and TOC varied more at depth. This variation demonstrates that deep peat porewater chemistry is not static. Lastly, temporal variation in solute chemistry depth profiles was greater than spatial variation in several instances, especially in shallow porewaters. In conclusion, characterizing both temporal and spatial variability is necessary to ensure representative sampling in peatlands, especially when calculating solute pools and fluxes and parameterizing process-based models.« less

Dynamic Vertical Profiles of Peat Porewater Chemistry in a Northern Peatland

DOE PAGES

Griffiths, Natalie A.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.

2016-10-14

We measured pH, cations, nutrients, and total organic carbon (TOC) over 3 years to examine weekly to monthly variability in porewater chemistry depth profiles (0–3.0 m) in an ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota, USA. We also compared temporal variation at one location to spatial variation in depth profiles at 16 locations across the bog. Most solutes exhibited large gradients with depth. pH increased by two units and calcium concentrations increased over 20 fold with depth, and may reflect peatland development from minerotrophic to ombrotrophic conditions. Ammonium concentrations increased almost 20 fold and TOC concentrations decreased by half with depth, and thesemore » patterns likely reflect mineralization of peat or decomposition of TOC. There was also considerable temporal variation in the porewater chemistry depth profiles. Ammonium, soluble reactive phosphorus, and potassium showed greater temporal variation in near-surface porewater, while pH, calcium, and TOC varied more at depth. This variation demonstrates that deep peat porewater chemistry is not static. Lastly, temporal variation in solute chemistry depth profiles was greater than spatial variation in several instances, especially in shallow porewaters. In conclusion, characterizing both temporal and spatial variability is necessary to ensure representative sampling in peatlands, especially when calculating solute pools and fluxes and parameterizing process-based models.« less

Identification of Vibrotactile Patterns Encoding Obstacle Distance Information.

PubMed

Kim, Yeongmi; Harders, Matthias; Gassert, Roger

2015-01-01

Delivering distance information of nearby obstacles from sensors embedded in a white cane-in addition to the intrinsic mechanical feedback from the cane-can aid the visually impaired in ambulating independently. Haptics is a common modality for conveying such information to cane users, typically in the form of vibrotactile signals. In this context, we investigated the effect of tactile rendering methods, tactile feedback configurations and directions of tactile flow on the identification of obstacle distance. Three tactile rendering methods with temporal variation only, spatio-temporal variation and spatial/temporal/intensity variation were investigated for two vibration feedback configurations. Results showed a significant interaction between tactile rendering method and feedback configuration. Spatio-temporal variation generally resulted in high correct identification rates for both feedback configurations. In the case of the four-finger vibration, tactile rendering with spatial/temporal/intensity variation also resulted in high distance identification rate. Further, participants expressed their preference for the four-finger vibration over the single-finger vibration in a survey. Both preferred rendering methods with spatio-temporal variation and spatial/temporal/intensity variation for the four-finger vibration could convey obstacle distance information with low workload. Overall, the presented findings provide valuable insights and guidance for the design of haptic displays for electronic travel aids for the visually impaired.

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Jiayin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-01-01

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs. PMID:29117152

Spatial-Temporal Data Collection with Compressive Sensing in Mobile Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zheng, Haifeng; Li, Jiayin; Feng, Xinxin; Guo, Wenzhong; Chen, Zhonghui; Xiong, Neal

2017-11-08

Compressive sensing (CS) provides an energy-efficient paradigm for data gathering in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the existing work on spatial-temporal data gathering using compressive sensing only considers either multi-hop relaying based or multiple random walks based approaches. In this paper, we exploit the mobility pattern for spatial-temporal data collection and propose a novel mobile data gathering scheme by employing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with delayed acceptance, an improved random walk algorithm for a mobile collector to collect data from a sensing field. The proposed scheme exploits Kronecker compressive sensing (KCS) for spatial-temporal correlation of sensory data by allowing the mobile collector to gather temporal compressive measurements from a small subset of randomly selected nodes along a random routing path. More importantly, from the theoretical perspective we prove that the equivalent sensing matrix constructed from the proposed scheme for spatial-temporal compressible signal can satisfy the property of KCS models. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can not only significantly reduce communication cost but also improve recovery accuracy for mobile data gathering compared to the other existing schemes. In particular, we also show that the proposed scheme is robust in unreliable wireless environment under various packet losses. All this indicates that the proposed scheme can be an efficient alternative for data gathering application in WSNs .

Using a spatially explicit analysis model to evaluate spatial variation of corn yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial irrigation of agricultural crops using site-specific variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems is beginning to have wide-spread acceptance. However, optimizing the management of these VRI systems to conserve natural resources and increase profitability requires an understanding of the spatial ...

Consistent individual differences in the social phenotypes of wild great tits, Parus major

PubMed Central

Aplin, L.M.; Firth, J.A.; Farine, D.R.; Voelkl, B.; Crates, R.A.; Culina, A.; Garroway, C.J.; Hinde, C.A.; Kidd, L.R.; Psorakis, I.; Milligan, N.D.; Radersma, R.; Verhelst, B.L.; Sheldon, B.C.

2015-01-01

Despite growing interest in animal social networks, surprisingly little is known about whether individuals are consistent in their social network characteristics. Networks are rarely repeatedly sampled; yet an assumption of individual consistency in social behaviour is often made when drawing conclusions about the consequences of social processes and structure. A characterization of such social phenotypes is therefore vital to understanding the significance of social network structure for individual fitness outcomes, and for understanding the evolution and ecology of individual variation in social behaviour more broadly. Here, we measured foraging associations over three winters in a large PIT-tagged population of great tits, and used a range of social network metrics to quantify individual variation in social behaviour. We then examined repeatability in social behaviour over both short (week to week) and long (year to year) timescales, and investigated variation in repeatability across age and sex classes. Social behaviours were significantly repeatable across all timescales, with the highest repeatability observed in group size choice and unweighted degree, a measure of gregariousness. By conducting randomizations to control for the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals, we further show that differences in social phenotypes were not solely explained by within-population variation in local densities, but also reflected fine-scale variation in social decision making. Our results provide rare evidence of stable social phenotypes in a wild population of animals. Such stable social phenotypes can be targets of selection and may have important fitness consequences, both for individuals and for their social-foraging associates. PMID:26512142

Spatial and temporal temperature distribution optimization for a geostationary antenna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsuyuki, G.; Miyake, R.

1992-01-01

The Geostationary Microwave Precipitation Radiometer antenna is considered and a thermal design analysis is performed to determine a design that would minimize on-orbit antenna temporal and spatial temperature gradients. The final design is based on an optically opaque radome which covered the antenna. The average orbital antenna temperature is found to be 9 C with maximum temporal and spatial variations of 34 C and 1 C, respectively. An independent thermal distortion analysis showed that this temporal variation would give an antenna figure error of 14 microns.

Decoherence and Collisional Frequency Shifts of Trapped Bosons and Fermions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gibble, Kurt; LNE-SYRTE, Observatoire de Paris, 75014 Paris

2009-09-11

We perform exact calculations of collisional frequency shifts for several fermions or bosons using a singlet and triplet basis for pairs of particles. The 'factor of 2 controversy' for bosons becomes clear - the factor is always 2. Decoherence is described by singlet states and they are unaffected by spatially uniform clock fields. Spatial variations are critical, especially for fermions which were previously thought to be immune to collision shifts. The spatial variations lead to decoherence and a novel frequency shift that is not proportional to the partial density of internal states.

Small area-level variation in the incidence of psychotic disorders in an urban area in France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Szoke, Andrei; Pignon, Baptiste; Baudin, Grégoire; Tortelli, Andrea; Richard, Jean-Romain; Leboyer, Marion; Schürhoff, Franck

2016-07-01

We sought to determine whether significant variation in the incidence of clinically relevant psychoses existed at an ecological level in an urban French setting, and to examine possible factors associated with this variation. We aimed to advance the literature by testing this hypothesis in a novel population setting and by comparing a variety of spatial models. We sought to identify all first episode cases of non-affective and affective psychotic disorders presenting in a defined urban catchment area over a 4 years period, over more than half a million person-years at-risk. Because data from geographic close neighbourhoods usually show spatial autocorrelation, we used for our analyses Bayesian modelling. We included small area neighbourhood measures of deprivation, migrants' density and social fragmentation as putative explanatory variables in the models. Incidence of broad psychotic disorders shows spatial patterning with the best fit for models that included both strong autocorrelation between neighbouring areas and weak autocorrelation between areas further apart. Affective psychotic disorders showed similar spatial patterning and were associated with the proportion of migrants/foreigners in the area (inverse correlation). In contrast, non-affective psychoses did not show spatial patterning. At ecological level, the variation in the number of cases and the factors that influence this variation are different for non-affective and affective psychotic disorders. Important differences in results-compared with previous studies in different settings-point to the importance of the context and the necessity of further studies to understand these differences.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Biophysical controls on carbon and water vapor fluxes across a grassland climatic gradient in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagle, Pradeep; Xiao, Xiangming; Scott, Russell L.

Understanding of the underlying causes of spatial variation in exchange of carbon and water vapor fluxes between grasslands and the atmosphere is crucial for accurate estimates of regional and global carbon and water budgets, and for predicting the impact of climate change on biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks of grasslands. We used ground-based eddy flux and meteorological data, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from 12 grasslands across the United States to examine the spatial variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and to evaluate the biophysical controls on the spatial patterns of fluxes. Precipitation was strongly associatedmore » with spatial and temporal variability in carbon and water vapor fluxes and vegetation productivity. Grasslands with annual average precipitation <600 mm generally had neutral annual carbon balance or emitted small amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Despite strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP)and evapotranspiration (ET) across study sites, GPP showed larger spatial variation than ET, and EVI had a greater effect on GPP than on ET. Consequently, large spatial variation in ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE = annual GPP/ET; varying from 0.67 ± 0.55 to 2.52 ± 0.52 g C mm⁻¹ET) was observed. Greater reduction in GPP than ET at high air temperature and vapor pressure deficit caused a reduction in EWUE in dry years, indicating a response which is opposite than what has been reported for forests. Our results show that spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem carbon uptake, ET, and water use efficiency of grasslands were strongly associated with canopy greenness and coverage, as indicated by EVI.« less

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands

PubMed Central

Baldwin, Robert F.; Leonard, Paul B.

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection. PMID:26465155

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands.

PubMed

Baldwin, Robert F; Leonard, Paul B

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection.

Geographic variation in forest composition and precipitation predict the synchrony of forest insect outbreaks

Treesearch

Kyle J. Haynes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Andrew J. Allstadt; Randall S. Morin

2018-01-01

Evaluating the causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics in nature is notoriously difficult due to a lack of data and appropriate statistical methods. Here, we use a recently developed method, a multivariate extension of the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation statistic, to map geographic variation in the synchrony of gypsy moth outbreaks. Regression...

Variation in nutrient characteristics of surface soils from the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico: A multivariate perspective.

Treesearch

S. B. Cox; M. R. Willig; F. N. Scatena

2002-01-01

We assessed the effects of landscape features (vegetation type and topography), season, and spatial hierarchy on the nutrient content of surface soils in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) of Puerto Rico. Considerable spatial variation characterized the soils of the LEF, and differences between replicate sites within each combination of vegetation type (tabonuco vs...

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

Spatial variations in food web structures with alternative stable states: evidence from stable isotope analysis in a large eutrophic lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunkai; Zhang, Yuying; Xu, Jun; Zhang, Shuo

2018-03-01

Food web structures are well known to vary widely among ecosystems. Moreover, many food web studies of lakes have generally attempted to characterize the overall food web structure and have largely ignored internal spatial and environmental variations. In this study, we hypothesize that there is a high degree of spatial heterogeneity within an ecosystem and such heterogeneity may lead to strong variations in environmental conditions and resource availability, in turn resulting in different trophic pathways. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes were employed for the whole food web to describe the structure of the food web in different sub-basins within Taihu Lake. This lake is a large eutrophic freshwater lake that has been intensively managed and highly influenced by human activities for more than 50 years. The results show significant isotopic differences between basins with different environmental characteristics. Such differences likely result from isotopic baseline differences combining with a shift in food web structure. Both are related to local spatial heterogeneity in nutrient loading in waters. Such variation should be explicitly considered in future food web studies and ecosystem-based management in this lake ecosystem.

Spatiotemporal Determinants of Urban Leptospirosis Transmission: Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study of Slum Residents in Brazil.

PubMed

Hagan, José E; Moraga, Paula; Costa, Federico; Capian, Nicolas; Ribeiro, Guilherme S; Wunder, Elsio A; Felzemburgh, Ridalva D M; Reis, Renato B; Nery, Nivison; Santana, Francisco S; Fraga, Deborah; Dos Santos, Balbino L; Santos, Andréia C; Queiroz, Adriano; Tassinari, Wagner; Carvalho, Marilia S; Reis, Mitermayer G; Diggle, Peter J; Ko, Albert I

2016-01-01

Rat-borne leptospirosis is an emerging zoonotic disease in urban slum settlements for which there are no adequate control measures. The challenge in elucidating risk factors and informing approaches for prevention is the complex and heterogeneous environment within slums, which vary at fine spatial scales and influence transmission of the bacterial agent. We performed a prospective study of 2,003 slum residents in the city of Salvador, Brazil during a four-year period (2003-2007) and used a spatiotemporal modelling approach to delineate the dynamics of leptospiral transmission. Household interviews and Geographical Information System surveys were performed annually to evaluate risk exposures and environmental transmission sources. We completed annual serosurveys to ascertain leptospiral infection based on serological evidence. Among the 1,730 (86%) individuals who completed at least one year of follow-up, the infection rate was 35.4 (95% CI, 30.7-40.6) per 1,000 annual follow-up events. Male gender, illiteracy, and age were independently associated with infection risk. Environmental risk factors included rat infestation (OR 1.46, 95% CI, 1.00-2.16), contact with mud (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17-2.17) and lower household elevation (OR 0.92 per 10m increase in elevation, 95% CI 0.82-1.04). The spatial distribution of infection risk was highly heterogeneous and varied across small scales. Fixed effects in the spatiotemporal model accounted for the majority of the spatial variation in risk, but there was a significant residual component that was best explained by the spatial random effect. Although infection risk varied between years, the spatial distribution of risk associated with fixed and random effects did not vary temporally. Specific "hot-spots" consistently had higher transmission risk during study years. The risk for leptospiral infection in urban slums is determined in large part by structural features, both social and environmental. Our findings indicate that topographic factors such as household elevation and inadequate drainage increase risk by promoting contact with mud and suggest that the soil-water interface serves as the environmental reservoir for spillover transmission. The use of a spatiotemporal approach allowed the identification of geographic outliers with unexplained risk patterns. This approach, in addition to guiding targeted community-based interventions and identifying new hypotheses, may have general applicability towards addressing environmentally-transmitted diseases that have emerged in complex urban slum settings.

Stimulated luminescence emission from localized recombination in randomly distributed defects.

PubMed

Jain, Mayank; Guralnik, Benny; Andersen, Martin Thalbitzer

2012-09-26

We present a new kinetic model describing localized electronic recombination through the excited state of the donor (d) to an acceptor (a) centre in luminescent materials. In contrast to the existing models based on the localized transition model (LTM) of Halperin and Braner (1960 Phys. Rev. 117 408-15) which assumes a fixed d → a tunnelling probability for the entire crystal, our model is based on nearest-neighbour recombination within randomly distributed centres. Such a random distribution can occur through the entire volume or within the defect complexes of the dosimeter, and implies that the tunnelling probability varies with the donor-acceptor (d-a) separation distance. We first develop an 'exact kinetic model' that incorporates this variation in tunnelling probabilities, and evolves both in spatial as well as temporal domains. We then develop a simplified one-dimensional, semi-analytical model that evolves only in the temporal domain. An excellent agreement is observed between thermally and optically stimulated luminescence (TL and OSL) results produced from the two models. In comparison to the first-order kinetic behaviour of the LTM of Halperin and Braner (1960 Phys. Rev. 117 408-15), our model results in a highly asymmetric TL peak; this peak can be understood to derive from a continuum of several first-order TL peaks. Our model also shows an extended power law behaviour for OSL (or prompt luminescence), which is expected from localized recombination mechanisms in materials with random distribution of centres.

Kriging with Unknown Variance Components for Regional Ionospheric Reconstruction.

PubMed

Huang, Ling; Zhang, Hongping; Xu, Peiliang; Geng, Jianghui; Wang, Cheng; Liu, Jingnan

2017-02-27

Ionospheric delay effect is a critical issue that limits the accuracy of precise Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and navigation for single-frequency users, especially in mid- and low-latitude regions where variations in the ionosphere are larger. Kriging spatial interpolation techniques have been recently introduced to model the spatial correlation and variability of ionosphere, which intrinsically assume that the ionosphere field is stochastically stationary but does not take the random observational errors into account. In this paper, by treating the spatial statistical information on ionosphere as prior knowledge and based on Total Electron Content (TEC) semivariogram analysis, we use Kriging techniques to spatially interpolate TEC values. By assuming that the stochastic models of both the ionospheric signals and measurement errors are only known up to some unknown factors, we propose a new Kriging spatial interpolation method with unknown variance components for both the signals of ionosphere and TEC measurements. Variance component estimation has been integrated with Kriging to reconstruct regional ionospheric delays. The method has been applied to data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and compared with the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolations with spherical cap harmonic functions, polynomial functions and low-degree spherical harmonic functions. The statistics of results indicate that the daily ionospheric variations during the experimental period characterized by the proposed approach have good agreement with the other methods, ranging from 10 to 80 TEC Unit (TECU, 1 TECU = 1 × 10 16 electrons/m²) with an overall mean of 28.2 TECU. The proposed method can produce more appropriate estimations whose general TEC level is as smooth as the ordinary Kriging but with a smaller standard deviation around 3 TECU than others. The residual results show that the interpolation precision of the new proposed method is better than the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolation by about 1.2 TECU and 0.7 TECU, respectively. The root mean squared error of the proposed new Kriging with variance components is within 1.5 TECU and is smaller than those from other methods under comparison by about 1 TECU. When compared with ionospheric grid points, the mean squared error of the proposed method is within 6 TECU and smaller than Kriging, indicating that the proposed method can produce more accurate ionospheric delays and better estimation accuracy over China regional area.

Kriging with Unknown Variance Components for Regional Ionospheric Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Huang, Ling; Zhang, Hongping; Xu, Peiliang; Geng, Jianghui; Wang, Cheng; Liu, Jingnan

2017-01-01

Ionospheric delay effect is a critical issue that limits the accuracy of precise Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and navigation for single-frequency users, especially in mid- and low-latitude regions where variations in the ionosphere are larger. Kriging spatial interpolation techniques have been recently introduced to model the spatial correlation and variability of ionosphere, which intrinsically assume that the ionosphere field is stochastically stationary but does not take the random observational errors into account. In this paper, by treating the spatial statistical information on ionosphere as prior knowledge and based on Total Electron Content (TEC) semivariogram analysis, we use Kriging techniques to spatially interpolate TEC values. By assuming that the stochastic models of both the ionospheric signals and measurement errors are only known up to some unknown factors, we propose a new Kriging spatial interpolation method with unknown variance components for both the signals of ionosphere and TEC measurements. Variance component estimation has been integrated with Kriging to reconstruct regional ionospheric delays. The method has been applied to data from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and compared with the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolations with spherical cap harmonic functions, polynomial functions and low-degree spherical harmonic functions. The statistics of results indicate that the daily ionospheric variations during the experimental period characterized by the proposed approach have good agreement with the other methods, ranging from 10 to 80 TEC Unit (TECU, 1 TECU = 1 × 1016 electrons/m2) with an overall mean of 28.2 TECU. The proposed method can produce more appropriate estimations whose general TEC level is as smooth as the ordinary Kriging but with a smaller standard deviation around 3 TECU than others. The residual results show that the interpolation precision of the new proposed method is better than the ordinary Kriging and polynomial interpolation by about 1.2 TECU and 0.7 TECU, respectively. The root mean squared error of the proposed new Kriging with variance components is within 1.5 TECU and is smaller than those from other methods under comparison by about 1 TECU. When compared with ionospheric grid points, the mean squared error of the proposed method is within 6 TECU and smaller than Kriging, indicating that the proposed method can produce more accurate ionospheric delays and better estimation accuracy over China regional area. PMID:28264424

Spatial variability effects on precision and power of forage yield estimation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spatial analyses of yield trials are important, as they adjust cultivar means for spatial variation and improve the statistical precision of yield estimation. While the relative efficiency of spatial analysis has been frequently reported in several yield trials, its application on long-term forage y...

Species-area relationships in coral communities: evaluating mechanisms for a commonly observed pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntington, B. E.; Lirman, D.

2012-12-01

Landscape-scale attributes of patch size, spatial isolation, and topographic complexity are known to influence diversity and abundance in terrestrial and marine systems, but remain collectively untested for reef-building corals. To investigate the relationship between the coral assemblage and seascape variation in reef habitats, we took advantage of the distinct boundaries, spatial configurations, and topographic complexities among artificial reef patches to overcome the difficulties of manipulating natural reefs. Reef size (m2) was found to be the foremost predictor of coral richness in accordance with species-area relationship predictions. Larger reefs were also found to support significantly higher colony densities, enabling us to reject the null hypothesis of random placement (a sampling artifact) in favor of target area predictions that suggest greater rates of immigration on larger reefs. Unlike the pattern previously documented for reef fishes, topographic complexity was not a significant predictor of any coral assemblage response variable, despite the range of complexity values sampled. Lastly, coral colony density was best explained by both increasing reef size and decreasing reef spatial isolation, a pattern found exclusively among brooding species with shorter larval dispersal distances. We conclude that seascape attributes of reef size and spatial configuration within the seascape can influence the species richness and abundance of the coral community at relatively small spatial scales (<1 km). Specifically, we demonstrate how patterns in the coral communities that have naturally established on these manipulated reefs agree with the target area and island biogeography mechanisms to drive species-area relationships in reef-building corals. Based on the patterns documented in artificial reefs, habitat degradation that results in smaller, more isolated natural reefs may compromise coral diversity.

Spatial analysis of ambulance response times related to prehospital cardiac arrests in the city-state of Singapore.

PubMed

Earnest, Arul; Hock Ong, Marcus Eng; Shahidah, Nur; Min Ng, Wen; Foo, Chuanyang; Nott, David John

2012-01-01

The main objective of this study was to establish the spatial variation in ambulance response times for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) in the city-state of Singapore. The secondary objective involved studying the relationships between various covariates, such as traffic condition and time and day of collapse, and ambulance response times. The study design was observational and ecological in nature. Data on OHCAs were collected from a nationally representative database for the period October 2001 to October 2004. We used the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze the data. Within the Bayesian framework of analysis, we used a Weibull regression model that took into account spatial random effects. The regression model was used to study the independent effects of each covariate. Our results showed that there was spatial heterogeneity in the ambulance response times in Singapore. Generally, areas in the far outskirts (suburbs), such as Boon Lay (in the west) and Sembawang (in the north), fared badly in terms of ambulance response times. This improved when adjusted for key covariates, including distance from the nearest fire station. Ambulance response time was also associated with better traffic conditions, weekend OHCAs, distance from the nearest fire station, and OHCAs occurring during nonpeak driving hours. For instance, the hazard ratio for good ambulance response time was 2.35 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.97-2.81) when traffic conditions were light and 1.72 (95% CI 1.51-1.97) when traffic conditions were moderate, as compared with heavy traffic. We found a clear spatial gradient for ambulance response times, with far-outlying areas' exhibiting poorer response times. Our study highlights the utility of this novel approach, which may be helpful for planning emergency medical services and public emergency responses.

Changes in spatial memory mediated by experimental variation in food supply do not affect hippocampal anatomy in mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli).

PubMed

Pravosudov, V V; Lavenex, P; Clayton, N S

2002-05-01

Earlier reports suggested that seasonal variation in food-caching behavior (caching intensity and cache retrieval accuracy) might correlate with morphological changes in the hippocampal formation, a brain structure thought to play a role in remembering cache locations. We demonstrated that changes in cache retrieval accuracy can also be triggered by experimental variation in food supply: captive mountain chickadees (Poecile gambeli) maintained on limited and unpredictable food supply were more accurate at recovering their caches and performed better on spatial memory tests than birds maintained on ad libitum food. In this study, we investigated whether these two treatment groups also differed in the volume and neuron number of the hippocampal formation. If variation in memory for food caches correlates with hippocampal size, then our birds with enhanced cache recovery and spatial memory performance should have larger hippocampal volumes and total neuron numbers. Contrary to this prediction we found no significant differences in volume or total neuron number of the hippocampal formation between the two treatment groups. Our results therefore indicate that changes in food-caching behavior and spatial memory performance, as mediated by experimental variations in food supply, are not necessarily accompanied by morphological changes in volume or neuron number of the hippocampal formation in fully developed, experienced food-caching birds. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multiscale spatial and temporal estimation of the b-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Hernández, R.; D'Auria, L.; Barrancos, J.; Padilla, G.

2017-12-01

The estimation of the spatial and temporal variations of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value is of great importance in different seismological applications. One of the problems affecting its estimation is the heterogeneous distribution of the seismicity which makes its estimate strongly dependent upon the selected spatial and/or temporal scale. This is especially important in volcanoes where dense clusters of earthquakes often overlap the background seismicity. Proposed solutions for estimating temporal variations of the b-value include considering equally spaced time intervals or variable intervals having an equal number of earthquakes. Similar approaches have been proposed to image the spatial variations of this parameter as well.We propose a novel multiscale approach, based on the method of Ogata and Katsura (1993), allowing a consistent estimation of the b-value regardless of the considered spatial and/or temporal scales. Our method, named MUST-B (MUltiscale Spatial and Temporal characterization of the B-value), basically consists in computing estimates of the b-value at multiple temporal and spatial scales, extracting for a give spatio-temporal point a statistical estimator of the value, as well as and indication of the characteristic spatio-temporal scale. This approach includes also a consistent estimation of the completeness magnitude (Mc) and of the uncertainties over both b and Mc.We applied this method to example datasets for volcanic (Tenerife, El Hierro) and tectonic areas (Central Italy) as well as an example application at global scale.

Effects of soil spatial variability at the hillslope and catchment scales on characteristics of rainfall-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; Or, Dani

2016-03-01

Spatial variations in soil properties affect key hydrological processes, yet their role in soil mechanical response to hydro-mechanical loading is rarely considered. This study aims to fill this gap by systematically quantifying effects of spatial variations in soil type and initial water content on rapid rainfall-induced shallow landslide predictions at the hillslope- and catchment-scales. We employed a physically-based landslide triggering model that considers mechanical interactions among soil columns governed by strength thresholds. At the hillslope scale, we found that the emergence of weak regions induced by spatial variations of soil type and initial water content resulted in early triggering of landslides with smaller volumes of released mass relative to a homogeneous slope. At the catchment scale, initial water content was linked to a topographic wetness index, whereas soil type varied deterministically with soil depth considering spatially correlated stochastic components. Results indicate that a strong spatial organization of initial water content delays landslide triggering, whereas spatially linked soil type with soil depth promoted landslide initiation. Increasing the standard deviation and correlation length of the stochastic component of soil type increases landslide volume and hastens onset of landslides. The study illustrates that for similar external boundary conditions and mean soil properties, landslide characteristics vary significantly with soil variability, hence it must be considered for improved landslide model predictions.

Spatial Variation in Development of Epibenthic Assemblages in a Coastal Lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedetti-Cecchi, L.; Rindi, F.; Bertocci, I.; Bulleri, F.; Cinelli, F.

2001-05-01

Spatial and temporal patterns in colonization of epibenthic assemblages were measured in a coastal lagoon on the west coast of Italy using recruitment panels. It was proposed that if the ecological processes influencing development of assemblages were homogeneous within the lagoon, then there should be no differences in mean cover of colonists nor in spatial patterns of variance in abundance in different areas of the lagoon. In contrast, heterogeneity in ecological processes affecting development would be revealed by spatial variability in colonization. To test these hypotheses, two sticks each with five replicate panels were placed 3-5 m apart in each of two sites 30-100 m apart in each of three locations 500-100 m apart; the experiment was repeated three times between April and December 1999, using new sites at each location each time. The results revealed considerable spatial variation in the structure of developing assemblages across locations. There were significant Location or Time×Location effects in the mean abundance of common taxa, such as Enteromorpha intestinalis , Ulva rigida, Cladophora spp., bryozoans and serpulids. Patterns in spatial variation differed among locations for these organisms. Collectively, the results supported a model of spatial heterogeneity in intensity of processes influencing patterns of recruitment and development of epibenthic assemblages in the Lagoon of Orbetello. The implications of these results for management of environmental problems in complex, variable habitats such as coastal lagoons, are discussed.

A parallel spatiotemporal saliency and discriminative online learning method for visual target tracking in aerial videos.

PubMed

Aghamohammadi, Amirhossein; Ang, Mei Choo; A Sundararajan, Elankovan; Weng, Ng Kok; Mogharrebi, Marzieh; Banihashem, Seyed Yashar

2018-01-01

Visual tracking in aerial videos is a challenging task in computer vision and remote sensing technologies due to appearance variation difficulties. Appearance variations are caused by camera and target motion, low resolution noisy images, scale changes, and pose variations. Various approaches have been proposed to deal with appearance variation difficulties in aerial videos, and amongst these methods, the spatiotemporal saliency detection approach reported promising results in the context of moving target detection. However, it is not accurate for moving target detection when visual tracking is performed under appearance variations. In this study, a visual tracking method is proposed based on spatiotemporal saliency and discriminative online learning methods to deal with appearance variations difficulties. Temporal saliency is used to represent moving target regions, and it was extracted based on the frame difference with Sauvola local adaptive thresholding algorithms. The spatial saliency is used to represent the target appearance details in candidate moving regions. SLIC superpixel segmentation, color, and moment features can be used to compute feature uniqueness and spatial compactness of saliency measurements to detect spatial saliency. It is a time consuming process, which prompted the development of a parallel algorithm to optimize and distribute the saliency detection processes that are loaded into the multi-processors. Spatiotemporal saliency is then obtained by combining the temporal and spatial saliencies to represent moving targets. Finally, a discriminative online learning algorithm was applied to generate a sample model based on spatiotemporal saliency. This sample model is then incrementally updated to detect the target in appearance variation conditions. Experiments conducted on the VIVID dataset demonstrated that the proposed visual tracking method is effective and is computationally efficient compared to state-of-the-art methods.

A parallel spatiotemporal saliency and discriminative online learning method for visual target tracking in aerial videos

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Visual tracking in aerial videos is a challenging task in computer vision and remote sensing technologies due to appearance variation difficulties. Appearance variations are caused by camera and target motion, low resolution noisy images, scale changes, and pose variations. Various approaches have been proposed to deal with appearance variation difficulties in aerial videos, and amongst these methods, the spatiotemporal saliency detection approach reported promising results in the context of moving target detection. However, it is not accurate for moving target detection when visual tracking is performed under appearance variations. In this study, a visual tracking method is proposed based on spatiotemporal saliency and discriminative online learning methods to deal with appearance variations difficulties. Temporal saliency is used to represent moving target regions, and it was extracted based on the frame difference with Sauvola local adaptive thresholding algorithms. The spatial saliency is used to represent the target appearance details in candidate moving regions. SLIC superpixel segmentation, color, and moment features can be used to compute feature uniqueness and spatial compactness of saliency measurements to detect spatial saliency. It is a time consuming process, which prompted the development of a parallel algorithm to optimize and distribute the saliency detection processes that are loaded into the multi-processors. Spatiotemporal saliency is then obtained by combining the temporal and spatial saliencies to represent moving targets. Finally, a discriminative online learning algorithm was applied to generate a sample model based on spatiotemporal saliency. This sample model is then incrementally updated to detect the target in appearance variation conditions. Experiments conducted on the VIVID dataset demonstrated that the proposed visual tracking method is effective and is computationally efficient compared to state-of-the-art methods. PMID:29438421

Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

2012-01-01

The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. 

Genome-scale modelling of microbial metabolism with temporal and spatial resolution.

PubMed

Henson, Michael A

2015-12-01

Most natural microbial systems have evolved to function in environments with temporal and spatial variations. A major limitation to understanding such complex systems is the lack of mathematical modelling frameworks that connect the genomes of individual species and temporal and spatial variations in the environment to system behaviour. The goal of this review is to introduce the emerging field of spatiotemporal metabolic modelling based on genome-scale reconstructions of microbial metabolism. The extension of flux balance analysis (FBA) to account for both temporal and spatial variations in the environment is termed spatiotemporal FBA (SFBA). Following a brief overview of FBA and its established dynamic extension, the SFBA problem is introduced and recent progress is described. Three case studies are reviewed to illustrate the current state-of-the-art and possible future research directions are outlined. The author posits that SFBA is the next frontier for microbial metabolic modelling and a rapid increase in methods development and system applications is anticipated. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Linking landscape characteristics to local grizzly bear abundance using multiple detection methods in a hierarchical model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.

2011-01-01

Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.

Measurement of spatial and temporal variation in volatile hazardous air pollutants in Tacoma, Washington, using a mobile membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS) system.

PubMed

Davey, Nicholas G; Fitzpatrick, Cole T E; Etzkorn, Jacob M; Martinsen, Morten; Crampton, Robert S; Onstad, Gretchen D; Larson, Timothy V; Yost, Michael G; Krogh, Erik T; Gilroy, Michael; Himes, Kathy H; Saganić, Erik T; Simpson, Christopher D; Gill, Christopher G

2014-09-19

The objective of this study was to use membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS), implemented on a mobile platform, in order to provide real-time, fine-scale, temporally and spatially resolved measurements of several hazardous air pollutants. This work is important because there is now substantial evidence that fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of air pollutant concentrations are important determinants of exposure to air pollution and adverse health outcomes. The study took place in Tacoma, WA during periods of impaired air quality in the winter and summer of 2008 and 2009. Levels of fine particles were higher in winter compared to summer, and were spatially uniform across the study area. Concentrations of vapor phase pollutants measured by membrane introduction mass spectrometry (MIMS), notably benzene and toluene, had relatively uniform spatial distributions at night, but exhibited substantial spatial variation during the day-daytime levels were up to 3-fold higher at traffic-impacted locations compared to a reference site. Although no direct side-by-side comparison was made between the MIMS system and traditional fixed site monitors, the MIMS system typically reported higher concentrations of specific VOCs, particularly benzene, ethylbenzene and naphthalene, compared to annual average concentrations obtained from SUMA canisters and gas chromatographic analysis at the fixed sites.

Partial entrainment of gravel bars during floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Booth, Derek B.; Burges, Stephen J.; Montgomery, David R.

2002-01-01

Spatial patterns of bed material entrainment by floods were documented at seven gravel bars using arrays of metal washers (bed tags) placed in the streambed. The observed patterns were used to test a general stochastic model that bed material entrainment is a spatially independent, random process where the probability of entrainment is uniform over a gravel bar and a function of the peak dimensionless shear stress τ0* of the flood. The fraction of tags missing from a gravel bar during a flood, or partial entrainment, had an approximately normal distribution with respect to τ0* with a mean value (50% of the tags entrained) of 0.085 and standard deviation of 0.022 (root‐mean‐square error of 0.09). Variation in partial entrainment for a given τ0* demonstrated the effects of flow conditioning on bed strength, with lower values of partial entrainment after intermediate magnitude floods (0.065 < τ0*< 0.08) than after higher magnitude floods. Although the probability of bed material entrainment was approximately uniform over a gravel bar during individual floods and independent from flood to flood, regions of preferential stability and instability emerged at some bars over the course of a wet season. Deviations from spatially uniform and independent bed material entrainment were most pronounced for reaches with varied flow and in consecutive floods with small to intermediate magnitudes.

Characterization and modelling of the spatially- and spectrally-varying point-spread function in hyperspectral imaging systems for computational correction of axial optical aberrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Špiclin, Žiga; Bürmen, Miran; Pernuš, Franjo; Likar, Boštjan

2012-03-01

Spatial resolution of hyperspectral imaging systems can vary significantly due to axial optical aberrations that originate from wavelength-induced index-of-refraction variations of the imaging optics. For systems that have a broad spectral range, the spatial resolution will vary significantly both with respect to the acquisition wavelength and with respect to the spatial position within each spectral image. Variations of the spatial resolution can be effectively characterized as part of the calibration procedure by a local image-based estimation of the pointspread function (PSF) of the hyperspectral imaging system. The estimated PSF can then be used in the image deconvolution methods to improve the spatial resolution of the spectral images. We estimated the PSFs from the spectral images of a line grid geometric caliber. From individual line segments of the line grid, the PSF was obtained by a non-parametric estimation procedure that used an orthogonal series representation of the PSF. By using the non-parametric estimation procedure, the PSFs were estimated at different spatial positions and at different wavelengths. The variations of the spatial resolution were characterized by the radius and the fullwidth half-maximum of each PSF and by the modulation transfer function, computed from images of USAF1951 resolution target. The estimation and characterization of the PSFs and the image deconvolution based spatial resolution enhancement were tested on images obtained by a hyperspectral imaging system with an acousto-optic tunable filter in the visible spectral range. The results demonstrate that the spatial resolution of the acquired spectral images can be significantly improved using the estimated PSFs and image deconvolution methods.

A Permutation-Randomization Approach to Test the Spatial Distribution of Plant Diseases.

PubMed

Lione, G; Gonthier, P

2016-01-01

The analysis of the spatial distribution of plant diseases requires the availability of trustworthy geostatistical methods. The mean distance tests (MDT) are here proposed as a series of permutation and randomization tests to assess the spatial distribution of plant diseases when the variable of phytopathological interest is categorical. A user-friendly software to perform the tests is provided. Estimates of power and type I error, obtained with Monte Carlo simulations, showed the reliability of the MDT (power > 0.80; type I error < 0.05). A biological validation on the spatial distribution of spores of two fungal pathogens causing root rot on conifers was successfully performed by verifying the consistency between the MDT responses and previously published data. An application of the MDT was carried out to analyze the relation between the plantation density and the distribution of the infection of Gnomoniopsis castanea, an emerging fungal pathogen causing nut rot on sweet chestnut. Trees carrying nuts infected by the pathogen were randomly distributed in areas with different plantation densities, suggesting that the distribution of G. castanea was not related to the plantation density. The MDT could be used to analyze the spatial distribution of plant diseases both in agricultural and natural ecosystems.

Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with nitrogen transport to study the spatial variation of carbon stocks and fluxes in a Critical Zone Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; He, Y.; Davis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Most current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve topographically driven land surface heterogeneity (e.g., lateral water flow, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation) or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest biogeochemical model with nitrogen transport, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, and adding an advection dominated nitrogen transport module. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model, and is augmented by adding a topographic solar radiation module. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while nitrogen is transported among model grids via surface and subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with spatially-distributed leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory. The model-predicted aboveground vegetation carbon and soil carbon distributions generally agree with the macro patterns observed within the watershed. The importance of abiotic variables (including soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and soil mineral nitrogen) in predicting aboveground carbon distribution is calculated using a random forest. The result suggests that the spatial pattern of aboveground carbon is controlled by the distribution of soil mineral nitrogen. A Flux-PIHM-BGC simulation without the nitrogen transport module is also executed. The model without nitrogen transport fails in predicting the spatial patterns of vegetation carbon, which indicates the importance of having a nitrogen transport module in spatially distributed ecohydrologic modeling.

Effects of spatial variation of skull and cerebrospinal fluid layers on optical mapping of brain activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuping; Shibahara, Nanae; Kuramashi, Daishi; Okawa, Shinpei; Kakuta, Naoto; Okada, Eiji; Maki, Atsushi; Yamada, Yukio

2010-07-01

In order to investigate the effects of anatomical variation in human heads on the optical mapping of brain activity, we perform simulations of optical mapping by solving the photon diffusion equation for layered-models simulating human heads using the finite element method (FEM). Particularly, the effects of the spatial variations in the thicknesses of the skull and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) layers on mapping images are investigated. Mapping images of single active regions in the gray matter layer are affected by the spatial variations in the skull and CSF layer thicknesses, although the effects are smaller than those of the positions of the active region relative to the data points. The increase in the skull thickness decreases the sensitivity of the images to active regions, while the increase in the CSF layer thickness increases the sensitivity in general. The images of multiple active regions are also influenced by their positions relative to the data points and by their depths from the skin surface.

A comparison of small-area hospitalisation rates, estimated morbidity and hospital access.

PubMed

Shulman, H; Birkin, M; Clarke, G P

2015-11-01

Published data on hospitalisation rates tend to reveal marked spatial variations within a city or region. Such variations may simply reflect corresponding variations in need at the small-area level. However, they might also be a consequence of poorer accessibility to medical facilities for certain communities within the region. To help answer this question it is important to compare these variable hospitalisation rates with small-area estimates of need. This paper first maps hospitalisation rates at the small-area level across the region of Yorkshire in the UK to show the spatial variations present. Then the Health Survey of England is used to explore the characteristics of persons with heart disease, using chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Using the most significant variables from this analysis the authors build a spatial microsimulation model of morbidity for heart disease for the Yorkshire region. We then compare these estimates of need with the patterns of hospitalisation rates seen across the region. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved classification accuracy of powdery mildew infection levels of wine grapes by spatial-spectral analysis of hyperspectral images.

PubMed

Knauer, Uwe; Matros, Andrea; Petrovic, Tijana; Zanker, Timothy; Scott, Eileen S; Seiffert, Udo

2017-01-01

Hyperspectral imaging is an emerging means of assessing plant vitality, stress parameters, nutrition status, and diseases. Extraction of target values from the high-dimensional datasets either relies on pixel-wise processing of the full spectral information, appropriate selection of individual bands, or calculation of spectral indices. Limitations of such approaches are reduced classification accuracy, reduced robustness due to spatial variation of the spectral information across the surface of the objects measured as well as a loss of information intrinsic to band selection and use of spectral indices. In this paper we present an improved spatial-spectral segmentation approach for the analysis of hyperspectral imaging data and its application for the prediction of powdery mildew infection levels (disease severity) of intact Chardonnay grape bunches shortly before veraison. Instead of calculating texture features (spatial features) for the huge number of spectral bands independently, dimensionality reduction by means of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) was applied first to derive a few descriptive image bands. Subsequent classification was based on modified Random Forest classifiers and selective extraction of texture parameters from the integral image representation of the image bands generated. Dimensionality reduction, integral images, and the selective feature extraction led to improved classification accuracies of up to [Formula: see text] for detached berries used as a reference sample (training dataset). Our approach was validated by predicting infection levels for a sample of 30 intact bunches. Classification accuracy improved with the number of decision trees of the Random Forest classifier. These results corresponded with qPCR results. An accuracy of 0.87 was achieved in classification of healthy, infected, and severely diseased bunches. However, discrimination between visually healthy and infected bunches proved to be challenging for a few samples, perhaps due to colonized berries or sparse mycelia hidden within the bunch or airborne conidia on the berries that were detected by qPCR. An advanced approach to hyperspectral image classification based on combined spatial and spectral image features, potentially applicable to many available hyperspectral sensor technologies, has been developed and validated to improve the detection of powdery mildew infection levels of Chardonnay grape bunches. The spatial-spectral approach improved especially the detection of light infection levels compared with pixel-wise spectral data analysis. This approach is expected to improve the speed and accuracy of disease detection once the thresholds for fungal biomass detected by hyperspectral imaging are established; it can also facilitate monitoring in plant phenotyping of grapevine and additional crops.

Spatial analysis and statistical modelling of snow cover dynamics in the Central Himalayas, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weidinger, Johannes; Gerlitz, Lars; Böhner, Jürgen

2017-04-01

General circulation models are able to predict large scale climate variations in global dimensions, however small scale dynamic characteristics, such as snow cover and its temporal variations in high mountain regions, are not represented sufficiently. Detailed knowledge about shifts in seasonal ablation times and spatial distribution of snow cover are crucial for various research interests. Since high mountain areas, for instance the Central Himalayas in Nepal, are generally remote, it is difficult to obtain data in high spatio-temporal resolutions. Regional climate models and downscaling techniques are implemented to compensate coarse resolution. Furthermore earth observation systems, such as MODIS, also permit bridging this gap to a certain extent. They offer snow (cover) data in daily temporal and medium spatial resolution of around 500 m, which can be applied as evaluation and training data for dynamical hydrological and statistical analyses. Within this approach two snow distribution models (binary snow cover and fractional snow cover) as well as one snow recession model were implemented for a research domain in the Rolwaling Himal in Nepal, employing the random forest technique, which represents a state of the art machine learning algorithm. Both bottom-up strategies provide inductive reasoning to derive rules for snow related processes out of climate (temperature, precipitation and irradiance) and climate-related topographic data sets (elevation, aspect and convergence index) obtained by meteorological network stations, remote sensing products (snow cover - MOD10-A1 and land surface temperatures - MOD11-A1) along with GIS. Snow distribution is predicted reliably on a daily basis in the research area, whereas further effort is necessary for predicting daily snow cover recession processes adequately. Swift changes induced by clear sky conditions with high insolation rates are well represented, whereas steady snow loss still needs continuing effort. All approaches underline the technical difficulties of snow cover modelling during the monsoon season, in accordance with previous studies. The developed methods in combination with continuous in situ measurements provide a basis for further downscaling approaches.

Temporal and spatial variation of terpenoids in eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) in relation to feeding by Adelges tsugae

Treesearch

Anthony F. Lagalante; Nyssa Lewis; Michael E. Montgomery; Kathleen S. Shields

2006-01-01

The terpenoid content of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) foliage was measured over an annual cycle of development from bud opening, shoot elongation, shoot maturation, to bud-break at the start of the next growing season. The objective was to determine if variation in terpenoid composition is linked with spatial and temporal feeding preferences of...

The spatial distribution and temporal variation of desert riparian forests and their influencing factors in the downstream Heihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Jingyi; Zhao, Wenwu; Daryanto, Stefani; Wang, Lixin; Fan, Hao; Feng, Qiang; Wang, Yaping

2017-05-01

Desert riparian forests are the main restored vegetation community in Heihe River basin. They provide critical habitats and a variety of ecosystem services in this arid environment. Since desert riparian forests are also sensitive to disturbance, examining the spatial distribution and temporal variation of these forests and their influencing factors is important to determine the limiting factors of vegetation recovery after long-term restoration. In this study, field experiment and remote sensing data were used to determine the spatial distribution and temporal variation of desert riparian forests and their relationship with the environmental factors. We classified five types of vegetation communities at different distances from the river channel. Community coverage and diversity formed a bimodal pattern, peaking at the distances of 1000 and 3000 m from the river channel. In general, the temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) trend from 2000 to 2014 was positive at different distances from the river channel, except for the region closest to the river bank (i.e. within 500 m from the river channel), which had been undergoing degradation since 2011. The spatial distribution of desert riparian forests was mainly influenced by the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties (e.g. soil moisture, bulk density and soil particle composition). Meanwhile, while the temporal variation of vegetation was affected by both the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties (e.g. soil moisture and soil particle composition) and to a lesser extent, the temporal variation of water availability (e.g. annual average and variability of groundwater, soil moisture and runoff). Since surface (0-30 cm) and deep (100-200 cm) soil moisture, bulk density and the annual average of soil moisture at 100 cm obtained from the remote sensing data were regarded as major determining factors of community distribution and temporal variation, conservation measures that protect the soil structure and prevent soil moisture depletion (e.g. artificial soil cover and water conveyance channels) were suggested to better protect desert riparian forests under climate change and intensive human disturbance.

Quantifying the influence of sediment source area sampling on detrital thermochronometer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whipp, D. M., Jr.; Ehlers, T. A.; Coutand, I.; Bookhagen, B.

2014-12-01

Detrital thermochronology offers a unique advantage over traditional bedrock thermochronology because of its sensitivity to sediment production and transportation to sample sites. In mountainous regions, modern fluvial sediment is often collected and dated to determine the past (105 to >107 year) exhumation history of the upstream drainage area. Though potentially powerful, the interpretation of detrital thermochronometer data derived from modern fluvial sediment is challenging because of spatial and temporal variations in sediment production and transport, and target mineral concentrations. Thermochronometer age prediction models provide a quantitative basis for data interpretation, but it can be difficult to separate variations in catchment bedrock ages from the effects of variable basin denudation and sediment transport. We present two examples of quantitative data interpretation using detrital thermochronometer data from the Himalaya, focusing on the influence of spatial and temporal variations in basin denudation on predicted age distributions. We combine age predictions from the 3D thermokinematic numerical model Pecube with simple models for sediment sampling in the upstream drainage basin area to assess the influence of variations in sediment production by different geomorphic processes or scaled by topographic metrics. We first consider a small catchment from the central Himalaya where bedrock landsliding appears to have affected the observed muscovite 40Ar/39Ar age distributions. Using a simple model of random landsliding with a power-law landslide frequency-area relationship we find that the sediment residence time in the catchment has a major influence on predicted age distributions. In the second case, we compare observed detrital apatite fission-track age distributions from 16 catchments in the Bhutan Himalaya to ages predicted using Pecube and scaled by various topographic metrics. Preliminary results suggest that predicted age distributions scaled by the rock uplift rate in Pecube are statistically equivalent to the observed age distributions for ~75% of the catchments, but may improve when scaled by local relief or specific stream power weighted by satellite-derived precipitation. Ongoing work is exploring the effect of scaling by other topographic metrics.

Active marks structure optimization for optical-electronic systems of spatial position control of industrial objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sycheva, Elena A.; Vasilev, Aleksandr S.; Lashmanov, Oleg U.; Korotaev, Valery V.

2017-06-01

The article is devoted to the optimization of optoelectronic systems of the spatial position of objects. Probabilistic characteristics of the detection of an active structured mark on a random noisy background are investigated. The developed computer model and the results of the study allow us to estimate the probabilistic characteristics of detection of a complex structured mark on a random gradient background, and estimate the error of spatial coordinates. The results of the study make it possible to improve the accuracy of measuring the coordinates of the object. Based on the research recommendations are given on the choice of parameters of the optimal mark structure for use in opticalelectronic systems for monitoring the spatial position of large-sized structures.

Hibernal habitat selection by Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in a northern New England montane landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groff, Luke A.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.; Loftin, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Poikilothermic species, such as amphibians, endure harsh winter conditions via freeze-tolerance or freeze-avoidance strategies. Freeze-tolerance requires a suite of complex, physiological mechanisms (e.g., cryoprotectant synthesis); however, behavioral strategies (e.g., hibernal habitat selection) may be used to regulate hibernaculum temperatures and promote overwintering survival. We investigated the hibernal ecology of the freeze-tolerant Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) in north-central Maine. Our objectives were to characterize the species hibernaculum microclimate (temperature, relative humidity), evaluate hibernal habitat selection, and describe the spatial arrangement of breeding, post-breeding, and hibernal habitats. We monitored 15 frogs during two winters (2011/12: N = 10; 2012/13: N = 5), measured hibernal habitat features at micro (2 m) and macro (10 m) spatial scales, and recorded microclimate hourly in three strata (hibernaculum, leaf litter, ambient air). We compared these data to that of 57 random locations with logistic regression models, Akaike Information Criterion, and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests. Hibernaculum microclimate was significantly different and less variable than leaf litter, ambient air, and random location microclimate. Model averaging indicated that canopy cover (−), leaf litter depth (+), and number of logs and stumps (+; microhabitat only) were important predictors of Wood Frog hibernal habitat. These habitat features likely act to insulate hibernating frogs from extreme and variable air temperatures. For example, decreased canopy cover facilitates increased snowpack depth and earlier snowpack accumulation and melt. Altered winter temperature and precipitation patterns attributable to climate change may reduce snowpack insulation, facilitate greater temperature variation in the underlying hibernacula, and potentially compromise Wood Frog winter survival.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Spatial variation of ultrafine particles and black carbon in two cities: results from a short-term measurement campaign.

PubMed

Klompmaker, Jochem O; Montagne, Denise R; Meliefste, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert

2015-03-01

Recently, short-term monitoring campaigns have been carried out to investigate the spatial variation of air pollutants within cities. Typically, such campaigns are based on short-term measurements at relatively large numbers of locations. It is largely unknown how well these studies capture the spatial variation of long term average concentrations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the within-site temporal and between-site spatial variation of the concentration of ultrafine particles (UFPs) and black carbon (BC) in a short-term monitoring campaign. In Amsterdam and Rotterdam (the Netherlands) measurements of number counts of particles larger than 10nm as a surrogate for UFP and BC were performed at 80 sites per city. Each site was measured in three different seasons of 2013 (winter, spring, summer). Sites were selected from busy urban streets, urban background, regional background and near highways, waterways and green areas, to obtain sufficient spatial contrast. Continuous measurements were performed for 30 min per site between 9 and 16 h to avoid traffic spikes of the rush hour. Concentrations were simultaneously measured at a reference site to correct for temporal variation. We calculated within- and between-site variance components reflecting temporal and spatial variations. Variance ratios were compared with previous campaigns with longer sampling durations per sample (24h to 14 days). The within-site variance was 2.17 and 2.44 times higher than the between-site variance for UFP and BC, respectively. In two previous studies based upon longer sampling duration much smaller variance ratios were found (0.31 and 0.09 for UFP and BC). Correction for temporal variation from a reference site was less effective for the short-term monitoring campaign compared to the campaigns with longer duration. Concentrations of BC and UFP were on average 1.6 and 1.5 times higher at urban street compared to urban background sites. No significant differences between the other site types and urban background were found. The high within to between-site concentration variances may result in the loss of precision and low explained variance when average concentrations from short-term campaigns are used to develop land use regression models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of some random effects methodology applicable to bird ringing data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2002-01-01

Existing models for ring recovery and recapture data analysis treat temporal variations in annual survival probability (S) as fixed effects. Often there is no explainable structure to the temporal variation in S1,..., Sk; random effects can then be a useful model: Si = E(S) + ??i. Here, the temporal variation in survival probability is treated as random with average value E(??2) = ??2. This random effects model can now be fit in program MARK. Resultant inferences include point and interval estimation for process variation, ??2, estimation of E(S) and var (E??(S)) where the latter includes a component for ??2 as well as the traditional component for v??ar(S??\\S??). Furthermore, the random effects model leads to shrinkage estimates, Si, as improved (in mean square error) estimators of Si compared to the MLE, S??i, from the unrestricted time-effects model. Appropriate confidence intervals based on the Si are also provided. In addition, AIC has been generalized to random effects models. This paper presents results of a Monte Carlo evaluation of inference performance under the simple random effects model. Examined by simulation, under the simple one group Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model, are issues such as bias of ??s2, confidence interval coverage on ??2, coverage and mean square error comparisons for inference about Si based on shrinkage versus maximum likelihood estimators, and performance of AIC model selection over three models: Si ??? S (no effects), Si = E(S) + ??i (random effects), and S1,..., Sk (fixed effects). For the cases simulated, the random effects methods performed well and were uniformly better than fixed effects MLE for the Si.

Reliability Coupled Sensitivity Based Design Approach for Gravity Retaining Walls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha Ray, A.; Baidya, D. K.

2012-09-01

Sensitivity analysis involving different random variables and different potential failure modes of a gravity retaining wall focuses on the fact that high sensitivity of a particular variable on a particular mode of failure does not necessarily imply a remarkable contribution to the overall failure probability. The present paper aims at identifying a probabilistic risk factor ( R f ) for each random variable based on the combined effects of failure probability ( P f ) of each mode of failure of a gravity retaining wall and sensitivity of each of the random variables on these failure modes. P f is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis of each random variable is carried out by F-test analysis. The structure, redesigned by modifying the original random variables with the risk factors, is safe against all the variations of random variables. It is observed that R f for friction angle of backfill soil ( φ 1 ) increases and cohesion of foundation soil ( c 2 ) decreases with an increase of variation of φ 1 , while R f for unit weights ( γ 1 and γ 2 ) for both soil and friction angle of foundation soil ( φ 2 ) remains almost constant for variation of soil properties. The results compared well with some of the existing deterministic and probabilistic methods and found to be cost-effective. It is seen that if variation of φ 1 remains within 5 %, significant reduction in cross-sectional area can be achieved. But if the variation is more than 7-8 %, the structure needs to be modified. Finally design guidelines for different wall dimensions, based on the present approach, are proposed.

Spatial variation in attributable risks.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2015-01-01

The attributable risk (AR) measures the contribution of a particular risk factor to a disease, and allows estimation of disease rates specific to that risk. While previous studies consider variability in ARs over demographic categories, this paper considers the extent of spatial variability in ARs estimated from multilevel data with confounders both at individual and geographic levels. A case study considers the AR for diabetes in relation to elevated BMI, and area rates for diabetes attributable to excess weight. Contextual adjustment includes known area variables, and unobserved spatially clustered influences, while spatial heterogeneity (effect modification) is considered in terms of varying effects of elevated BMI by neighbourhood deprivation category. The application is to patient register data in London, with clear evidence of spatial variation in ARs, and in small area diabetes rates attributable to excess weight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer simulation of single-phase nanocrystalline permanent magnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, M. K.; Bishop, J. E. L.; Tucker, J. W.; Davies, H. A.

1998-03-01

Demagnetizing curves have been calculated numerically for three-dimensional micromagnetic model assemblies of randomly oriented, magnetically hard, exchange coupled, uniaxial nanocrystals as typified by rapidly quenched Nd 2Fe 14B. The curves were obtained as a sequence of static equilibrium states in an incrementally changing applied field. The magnetization distribution in each state was obtained by minimizing the sum of the exchange, anisotropy and Zeeman energies of the assembly, using a modified LaBonte method, with computational elements as small as 1.11 nm (roughly {1}/{4} the domain wall thickness in Nd 2Fe 14B). For computational economy, internal dipolar interactions were ignored in the energy minimization. For a material with the magnetic constants of stoichiometric Nd 2Fe 14B, tests showed that these interactions contribute less than 3% to the energy. On increasing the model grain size from 4.4 to 36 nm, the reduced remanence fell from 76 to 54% and the reduced intrinsic coercivity μ0iHCMS/ KU increased from 0.16 to 0.46 (just under half the Stoner-Wohlfarth value); both sets of results are in reasonable agreement with experimental values. The energy product, evaluated for Nd 2Fe 14B, ranged from ˜224 kJ/m 3 for 10 nm grains to ˜128 kJ/m 3 for 36 nm grains. For grain sizes ⩾20 nm, spatial magnetization variation was confined to domain walls centred on the grain boundaries. For grain sizes decreasing below about twice the domain wall thickness, spatial magnetization variation extended to the interior of the grains and exhibited increasingly long-range correlations.

Mapping the Risk of Snakebite in Sri Lanka - A National Survey with Geospatial Analysis.

PubMed

Ediriweera, Dileepa Senajith; Kasturiratne, Anuradhani; Pathmeswaran, Arunasalam; Gunawardena, Nipul Kithsiri; Wijayawickrama, Buddhika Asiri; Jayamanne, Shaluka Francis; Isbister, Geoffrey Kennedy; Dawson, Andrew; Giorgi, Emanuele; Diggle, Peter John; Lalloo, David Griffith; de Silva, Hithanadura Janaka

2016-07-01

There is a paucity of robust epidemiological data on snakebite, and data available from hospitals and localized or time-limited surveys have major limitations. No study has investigated the incidence of snakebite across a whole country. We undertook a community-based national survey and model based geostatistics to determine incidence, envenoming, mortality and geographical pattern of snakebite in Sri Lanka. The survey was designed to sample a population distributed equally among the nine provinces of the country. The number of data collection clusters was divided among districts in proportion to their population. Within districts clusters were randomly selected. Population based incidence of snakebite and significant envenoming were estimated. Model-based geostatistics was used to develop snakebite risk maps for Sri Lanka. 1118 of the total of 14022 GN divisions with a population of 165665 (0.8%of the country's population) were surveyed. The crude overall community incidence of snakebite, envenoming and mortality were 398 (95% CI: 356-441), 151 (130-173) and 2.3 (0.2-4.4) per 100000 population, respectively. Risk maps showed wide variation in incidence within the country, and snakebite hotspots and cold spots were determined by considering the probability of exceeding the national incidence. This study provides community based incidence rates of snakebite and envenoming for Sri Lanka. The within-country spatial variation of bites can inform healthcare decision making and highlights the limitations associated with estimates of incidence from hospital data or localized surveys. Our methods are replicable, and these models can be adapted to other geographic regions after re-estimating spatial covariance parameters for the particular region.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photon event distribution sampling: an image formation technique for scanning microscopes that permits tracking of sub-diffraction particles with high spatial and temporal resolutions.

PubMed

Larkin, J D; Publicover, N G; Sutko, J L

2011-01-01

In photon event distribution sampling, an image formation technique for scanning microscopes, the maximum likelihood position of origin of each detected photon is acquired as a data set rather than binning photons in pixels. Subsequently, an intensity-related probability density function describing the uncertainty associated with the photon position measurement is applied to each position and individual photon intensity distributions are summed to form an image. Compared to pixel-based images, photon event distribution sampling images exhibit increased signal-to-noise and comparable spatial resolution. Photon event distribution sampling is superior to pixel-based image formation in recognizing the presence of structured (non-random) photon distributions at low photon counts and permits use of non-raster scanning patterns. A photon event distribution sampling based method for localizing single particles derived from a multi-variate normal distribution is more precise than statistical (Gaussian) fitting to pixel-based images. Using the multi-variate normal distribution method, non-raster scanning and a typical confocal microscope, localizations with 8 nm precision were achieved at 10 ms sampling rates with acquisition of ~200 photons per frame. Single nanometre precision was obtained with a greater number of photons per frame. In summary, photon event distribution sampling provides an efficient way to form images when low numbers of photons are involved and permits particle tracking with confocal point-scanning microscopes with nanometre precision deep within specimens. © 2010 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2010 The Royal Microscopical Society.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

Treesearch

Ephraim M. Hanks; Melvin B. Hooten; Steven T. Knick; Sara J. Oyler-McCance; Jennifer A. Fike; Todd B. Cross; Michael K. Schwartz

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial...

A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2013-01-01

Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

The spatial distribution of cropland carbon transfer in Jilin province during 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Xintong; Meng, Jian; Li, Qiuhui; Gao, Shuang; Zhu, Xianjin

2018-01-01

Cropland carbon transfer (CCT, gC yr-1) is an important component in the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. Analyzing the value of CCT and its spatial variation would provide a data basis for assessing the regional carbon balance. Based on the data from Jilin statistical yearbook 2015, we investigated the spatial variation of CCT in Jilin province during 2014. Results suggest that the CCT of Jilin province was 30.83 TgC, which exhibited a decreasing trend from the centre to the border but the west side was higher than the east. The magnitude of carbon transfer per area (MCT), which showed a similar spatial distribution with CCT, was the dominating component of CCT spatial distribution. The spatial distribution of MCT was jointly affected by that of the ratio of planting area to regional area (RPR) and carbon transfer per planting area (CTP), where RPR and CTP contributed 65.55% and 34.5% of MCT spatial distribution, respectively. Therefore, CCT in Jilin province spatially varied, which made it highly needed to consider the difference in CCT among regions when we assessing the regional carbon budget.

Simulation of wave propagation in three-dimensional random media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Wm. A.; Filice, J. P.; Frehlich, R. G.; Yadlowsky, M.

1995-04-01

Quantitative error analyses for the simulation of wave propagation in three-dimensional random media, when narrow angular scattering is assumed, are presented for plane-wave and spherical-wave geometry. This includes the errors that result from finite grid size, finite simulation dimensions, and the separation of the two-dimensional screens along the propagation direction. Simple error scalings are determined for power-law spectra of the random refractive indices of the media. The effects of a finite inner scale are also considered. The spatial spectra of the intensity errors are calculated and compared with the spatial spectra of

Regional-scale drivers of marine nematode distribution in Southern Ocean continental shelf sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauquier, Freija; Verleyen, Elie; Tytgat, Bjorn; Vanreusel, Ann

2018-07-01

Many marine meiofauna taxa seem to possess cosmopolitan species distributions, despite their endobenthic lifestyle and restricted long-distance dispersal capacities. In light of this paradox we used a metacommunity framework to study spatial turnover in free-living nematode distribution and assess the importance of local environmental conditions in explaining differences between communities in surface and subsurface sediments of the Southern Ocean continental shelf. We analysed nematode community structure in two sediment layers (0-3 cm and 3-5 cm) of locations maximum 2400 km apart. We first focused on a subset of locations to evaluate whether the genus level is sufficiently taxonomically fine-grained to study large-scale patterns in nematode community structure. We subsequently used redundancy and variation partitioning analyses to quantify the unique and combined effects of local environmental conditions and spatial descriptors on genus-level community composition. Macroecological patterns in community structure were highly congruent at the genus and species level. Nematode community composition was highly divergent between both depth strata, likely as a result of local abiotic conditions. Variation in community structure between the different regions largely stemmed from turnover (i.e. genus/species replacement) rather than nestedness (i.e. genus/species loss). The level of turnover among communities increased with geographic distance and was more pronounced in subsurface layers compared to surface sediments. Variation partitioning analysis revealed that both environmental and spatial predictors significantly explained variation in community structure. Moreover, the shared fraction of both sets of variables was high, which suggested a substantial amount of spatially structured environmental variation. Additionally, the effect of space independent of environment was much higher than the effect of environment independent of space, which shows the importance of including spatial descriptors in meiofauna and nematode community ecology. Large-scale assessment of free-living nematode diversity and abundance in the Southern Ocean shelf zone revealed strong horizontal and vertical spatial structuring in response to local environmental conditions, in combination with (most likely) dispersal limitation.

Invertebrate Metacommunity Structure and Dynamics in an Andean Glacial Stream Network Facing Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cauvy-Fraunié, Sophie; Espinosa, Rodrigo; Andino, Patricio; Jacobsen, Dean; Dangles, Olivier

2015-01-01

Under the ongoing climate change, understanding the mechanisms structuring the spatial distribution of aquatic species in glacial stream networks is of critical importance to predict the response of aquatic biodiversity in the face of glacier melting. In this study, we propose to use metacommunity theory as a conceptual framework to better understand how river network structure influences the spatial organization of aquatic communities in glacierized catchments. At 51 stream sites in an Andean glacierized catchment (Ecuador), we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, measured physico-chemical and food resource conditions, and calculated geographical, altitudinal and glaciality distances among all sites. Using partial redundancy analysis, we partitioned community variation to evaluate the relative strength of environmental conditions (e.g., glaciality, food resource) vs. spatial processes (e.g., overland, watercourse, and downstream directional dispersal) in organizing the aquatic metacommunity. Results revealed that both environmental and spatial variables significantly explained community variation among sites. Among all environmental variables, the glacial influence component best explained community variation. Overland spatial variables based on geographical and altitudinal distances significantly affected community variation. Watercourse spatial variables based on glaciality distances had a unique significant effect on community variation. Within alpine catchment, glacial meltwater affects macroinvertebrate metacommunity structure in many ways. Indeed, the harsh environmental conditions characterizing glacial influence not only constitute the primary environmental filter but also, limit water-borne macroinvertebrate dispersal. Therefore, glacier runoff acts as an aquatic dispersal barrier, isolating species in headwater streams, and preventing non-adapted species to colonize throughout the entire stream network. Under a scenario of glacier runoff decrease, we expect a reduction in both environmental filtering and dispersal limitation, inducing a taxonomic homogenization of the aquatic fauna in glacierized catchments as well as the extinction of specialized species in headwater groundwater and glacier-fed streams, and consequently an irreversible reduction in regional diversity. PMID:26308853

Spatial-temporal variation of parasites in Cnemidophorus ocellifer (Teiidae) and Tropidurus hispidus and Tropidurus semitaeniatus (Tropiduridae) from Caatinga areas in northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Brito, Samuel V; Ferreira, Felipe S; Ribeiro, Samuel C; Anjos, Luciano A; Almeida, Waltécio O; Mesquita, Daniel O; Vasconcellos, Alexandre

2014-03-01

Parasites are natural regulators of their host populations. Despite this, little is known about variations in parasite composition (spatially or temporally) in environments subjected to water-related periodic stress such as the arid and semiarid regions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial-temporal variation in endoparasite species' abundance and richness in populations of Neotropical Cnemidophorus ocellifer, Tropidurus hispidus, and Tropidurus semitaeniatus lizards in the semiarid northeast of Brazil. The location influenced the abundance of parasites in all analyzed lizard species, while season (dry and rainy) only influenced the total abundance for T. hispidus. In all seasons, males significantly showed more endoparasites than females in all lizard species, although for T. hispidus, this difference was only found in the dry season. Seasonal variations affect the abundance patterns of parasites. Likely, variables include environmental variations such as humidity and temperature, which influence the development of endoparasite eggs when outside of the host. Further, the activity of the intermediate hosts and the parasites of heteroxenous life cycles could be affected by an environmental condition. The variation in the abundance of parasites between the sampling areas could be a reflection of variations in climate and physiochemical conditions. Also, it could be due to differences in the quality of the environment in which each host population lives.

Study on temporal variation and spatial distribution for rural poverty in China based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xianfeng; Xu, Xiuli; Wang, Yingjie; Cui, Jing; Mo, Hongyuan; Liu, Ling; Yan, Hong; Zhang, Yan; Han, Jiafu

2009-07-01

Poverty is one of the most serious challenges all over the world, is an obstacle to hinder economics and agriculture in poverty area. Research on poverty alleviation in China is very useful and important. In this paper, we will explore the comprehensive poverty characteristics in China, analyze the current poverty status, spatial distribution and temporal variations about rural poverty in China, and to category the different poverty types and their spatial distribution. First, we achieved the gathering and processing the relevant data. These data contain investigation data, research reports, statistical yearbook, censuses, social-economic data, physical and anthrop geographical data, etc. After deeply analysis of these data, we will get the distribution of poverty areas by spatial-temporal data model according to different poverty given standard in different stages in China to see the poverty variation and the regional difference in County-level. Then, the current poverty status, spatial pattern about poverty area in villages-level will be lucubrated; the relationship among poverty, environment (including physical and anthrop geographical factors) and economic development, etc. will be expanded. We hope our research will enhance the people knowledge of poverty in China and contribute to the poverty alleviation in China.

Exposure assessment models for elemental components of particulate matter in an urban environment: A comparison of regression and random forest approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brokamp, Cole; Jandarov, Roman; Rao, M. B.; LeMasters, Grace; Ryan, Patrick

2017-02-01

Exposure assessment for elemental components of particulate matter (PM) using land use modeling is a complex problem due to the high spatial and temporal variations in pollutant concentrations at the local scale. Land use regression (LUR) models may fail to capture complex interactions and non-linear relationships between pollutant concentrations and land use variables. The increasing availability of big spatial data and machine learning methods present an opportunity for improvement in PM exposure assessment models. In this manuscript, our objective was to develop a novel land use random forest (LURF) model and compare its accuracy and precision to a LUR model for elemental components of PM in the urban city of Cincinnati, Ohio. PM smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and eleven elemental components were measured at 24 sampling stations from the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study (CCAAPS). Over 50 different predictors associated with transportation, physical features, community socioeconomic characteristics, greenspace, land cover, and emission point sources were used to construct LUR and LURF models. Cross validation was used to quantify and compare model performance. LURF and LUR models were created for aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), zinc (Zn), and total PM2.5 in the CCAAPS study area. LURF utilized a more diverse and greater number of predictors than LUR and LURF models for Al, K, Mn, Pb, Si, Zn, TRAP, and PM2.5 all showed a decrease in fractional predictive error of at least 5% compared to their LUR models. LURF models for Al, Cu, Fe, K, Mn, Pb, Si, Zn, TRAP, and PM2.5 all had a cross validated fractional predictive error less than 30%. Furthermore, LUR models showed a differential exposure assessment bias and had a higher prediction error variance. Random forest and other machine learning methods may provide more accurate exposure assessment.