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Sample records for range-wide demographic expansion

  1. Recent range-wide demographic expansion in a Taiwan endemic montane bird, Steere's Liocichla (Liocichla steerii)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The subtropical island of Taiwan is an area of high endemism and a complex topographic environment. Phylogeographic studies indicate that vicariance caused by Taiwan's mountains has subdivided many taxa into genetic phylogroups. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellites to test whether the evolutionary history of an endemic montane bird, Steere's Liocichla (Liocichla steerii), fit the general vicariant paradigm for a montane organism. Results We found that while mountains appear to channel gene flow they are not a significant barrier for Steere's Liocichla. Recent demographic expansion was evident, and genetic diversity was relatively high across the island, suggesting expansion from multiple areas rather than a few isolated refugia. Ecological niche modeling corroborated the molecular results and suggested that populations of Steere's Liocichla are connected by climatically suitable habitat and that there was less suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conclusions Genetic and ecological niche modeling data corroborate a single history--Steere's Liocichla was at lower density during the Last Glacial Maximum and has subsequently expanded in population density. We suggest that such a range-wide density expansion might be an overlooked cause for the genetic patterns of demographic expansion that are regularly reported. We find significant differences among some populations in FST indices and an admixture analysis. Though both of these results are often used to suggest conservation action, we affirm that statistically significant results are not necessarily biologically meaningful and we urge caution when interpreting highly polymorphic data such as microsatellites. PMID:20219124

  2. Testing the abundant center model using range-wide demographic surveys of two coastal dune plants.

    PubMed

    Samis, Karen E; Eckert, Christopher G

    2007-07-01

    It is widely accepted that species are most abundant at the center of their geographic ranges and become progressively rarer toward range limits. Although the abundant center model (ACM) has rarely been tested with range-wide surveys, it influences much thinking about the ecology and evolution of species' distributions. We tested ACM predictions using two unrelated but ecologically similar plants, Camissonia cheiranthifolia and Abronia umbellata. We intensively sampled both throughout their one-dimensional distributions within the Pacific coastal dunes of North America, from northern Baja California, Mexico, to southern Oregon, USA. Data from > 1100 herbarium specimens indicated that these limits have been stable for at least the last 100 years. Range-wide field surveys detected C. cheiranthifolia at 87% of 124 sites and A. umbellata at 54% of 113 sites, but site occupancy did not decline significantly toward range limits for either species. Permutation analysis did not detect a significant fit of geographical variation in local density to the ACM. Mean density did not correlate negatively with mean individual performance (plant size or number of seeds/plant), probably because both species occur at low densities. Although size and seeds per plant varied widely, central populations tended to have the highest values for size only. For C. cheiranthifolia, we observed asymmetry in the pattern of variation between the northern and southern halves of the range consistent with the long-standing prediction that range limits are imposed by different ecological factors in different parts of the geographical distribution. However, these asymmetries were difficult to interpret and likely reflect evolutionary differentiation as well as plastic responses to ecological variation. Both density and seeds per plant contributed to variation in seed production per unit area. In C. cheiranthifolia only, sites with highest seed production tended to occur at the range center, as

  3. Range-wide multilocus phylogeography of the red fox reveals ancient continental divergence, minimal genomic exchange and distinct demographic histories.

    PubMed

    Statham, Mark J; Murdoch, James; Janecka, Jan; Aubry, Keith B; Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Soulsbury, Carl D; Berry, Oliver; Wang, Zhenghuan; Harrison, David; Pearch, Malcolm; Tomsett, Louise; Chupasko, Judith; Sacks, Benjamin N

    2014-10-01

    Widely distributed taxa provide an opportunity to compare biogeographic responses to climatic fluctuations on multiple continents and to investigate speciation. We conducted the most geographically and genomically comprehensive study to date of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), the world's most widely distributed wild terrestrial carnivore. Analyses of 697 bp of mitochondrial sequence in ~1000 individuals suggested an ancient Middle Eastern origin for all extant red foxes and a 400 kya (SD = 139 kya) origin of the primary North American (Nearctic) clade. Demographic analyses indicated a major expansion in Eurasia during the last glaciation (~50 kya), coinciding with a previously described secondary transfer of a single matriline (Holarctic) to North America. In contrast, North American matrilines (including the transferred portion of Holarctic clade) exhibited no signatures of expansion until the end of the Pleistocene (~12 kya). Analyses of 11 autosomal loci from a subset of foxes supported the colonization time frame suggested by mtDNA (and the fossil record) but, in contrast, reflected no detectable secondary transfer, resulting in the most fundamental genomic division of red foxes at the Bering Strait. Endemic continental Y-chromosome clades further supported this pattern. Thus, intercontinental genomic exchange was overall very limited, consistent with long-term reproductive isolation since the initial colonization of North America. Based on continental divergence times in other carnivoran species pairs, our findings support a model of peripatric speciation and are consistent with the previous classification of the North American red fox as a distinct species, V. fulva.

  4. Targeted Capture Sequencing in Whitebark Pine Reveals Range-Wide Demographic and Adaptive Patterns Despite Challenges of a Large, Repetitive Genome

    PubMed Central

    Syring, John V.; Tennessen, Jacob A.; Jennings, Tara N.; Wegrzyn, Jill; Scelfo-Dalbey, Camille; Cronn, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) inhabits an expansive range in western North America, and it is a keystone species of subalpine environments. Whitebark is susceptible to multiple threats – climate change, white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire exclusion – and it is suffering significant mortality range-wide, prompting the tree to be listed as ‘globally endangered’ by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and ‘endangered’ by the Canadian government. Conservation collections (in situ and ex situ) are being initiated to preserve the genetic legacy of the species. Reliable, transferrable, and highly variable genetic markers are essential for quantifying the genetic profiles of seed collections relative to natural stands, and ensuring the completeness of conservation collections. We evaluated the use of hybridization-based target capture to enrich specific genomic regions from the 27 GB genome of whitebark pine, and to evaluate genetic variation across loci, trees, and geography. Probes were designed to capture 7,849 distinct genes, and screening was performed on 48 trees. Despite the inclusion of repetitive elements in the probe pool, the resulting dataset provided information on 4,452 genes and 32% of targeted positions (528,873 bp), and we were able to identify 12,390 segregating sites from 47 trees. Variations reveal strong geographic trends in heterozygosity and allelic richness, with trees from the southern Cascade and Sierra Range showing the greatest distinctiveness and differentiation. Our results show that even under non-optimal conditions (low enrichment efficiency; inclusion of repetitive elements in baits), targeted enrichment produces high quality, codominant genotypes from large genomes. The resulting data can be readily integrated into management and gene conservation activities for whitebark pine, and have the potential to be applied to other members of 5-needle pine group (Pinus subsect. Quinquefolia) due to

  5. Targeted Capture Sequencing in Whitebark Pine Reveals Range-Wide Demographic and Adaptive Patterns Despite Challenges of a Large, Repetitive Genome.

    PubMed

    Syring, John V; Tennessen, Jacob A; Jennings, Tara N; Wegrzyn, Jill; Scelfo-Dalbey, Camille; Cronn, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) inhabits an expansive range in western North America, and it is a keystone species of subalpine environments. Whitebark is susceptible to multiple threats - climate change, white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire exclusion - and it is suffering significant mortality range-wide, prompting the tree to be listed as 'globally endangered' by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and 'endangered' by the Canadian government. Conservation collections (in situ and ex situ) are being initiated to preserve the genetic legacy of the species. Reliable, transferrable, and highly variable genetic markers are essential for quantifying the genetic profiles of seed collections relative to natural stands, and ensuring the completeness of conservation collections. We evaluated the use of hybridization-based target capture to enrich specific genomic regions from the 27 GB genome of whitebark pine, and to evaluate genetic variation across loci, trees, and geography. Probes were designed to capture 7,849 distinct genes, and screening was performed on 48 trees. Despite the inclusion of repetitive elements in the probe pool, the resulting dataset provided information on 4,452 genes and 32% of targeted positions (528,873 bp), and we were able to identify 12,390 segregating sites from 47 trees. Variations reveal strong geographic trends in heterozygosity and allelic richness, with trees from the southern Cascade and Sierra Range showing the greatest distinctiveness and differentiation. Our results show that even under non-optimal conditions (low enrichment efficiency; inclusion of repetitive elements in baits), targeted enrichment produces high quality, codominant genotypes from large genomes. The resulting data can be readily integrated into management and gene conservation activities for whitebark pine, and have the potential to be applied to other members of 5-needle pine group (Pinus subsect. Quinquefolia) due to their

  6. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    PubMed

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  7. Range-wide success of red-cockaded woodpecker translocations.

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, John W; Costa, Ralph

    2004-12-31

    Edwards, John W.; Costa, Ralph. 2004. Range-wide success of red-cockaded woodpecker translocations. In: Red-cockaded woodpecker; Road to Recovery. Proceedings of the 4th Red-cockaded woodpecker Symposium. Ralph Costa and Susan J. Daniels, eds. Savannah, Georgia. January, 2003. Chapter 6. Translocation. Pp 307-311. Abstract: Red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) have declined range-wide during the past century, suffering from habitat loss and the effects of fire exclusion in older southern pine forests. Red-cockaded woodpecker translocations are a potentially important tool in conservation efforts to reestablish red-cockaded woodpeckers in areas from which they have been extirpated. Currently, translocations are critical in ongoing efforts to save and restore the many existing small populations. We examined the effects of demographic and environmental factors on the range-wide success of translocations between 1989 and 1995.

  8. Molecular evidence for a recent demographic expansion in the puma (Puma concolor) (Mammalia, Felidae)

    PubMed Central

    Matte, Eunice M.; Castilho, Camila S.; Miotto, Renata A.; Sana, Denis A.; Johnson, Warren E.; O’Brien, Stephen J.; de Freitas, Thales R. O.; Eizirik, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    The puma is an iconic predator that ranges throughout the Americas, occupying diverse habitats. Previous phylogeographic analyses have revealed that it exhibits moderate levels of genetic structure across its range, with few of the classically recognized subspecies being supported as distinct demographic units. Moreover, most of the species’ molecular diversity was found to be in South America. To further investigate the phylogeographic structure and demographic history of pumas we analyzed mtDNA sequences from 186 individuals sampled throughout their range, with emphasis on South America. Our objectives were to refine the phylogeographic assessment within South America and to investigate the demographic history of pumas using a coalescent approach. Our results extend previous phylogeographic findings, reassessing the delimitation of historical population units in South America and demonstrating that this species experienced a considerable demographic expansion in the Holocene, ca. 8,000 years ago. Our analyses indicate that this expansion occurred in South America, prior to the hypothesized re-colonization of North America, which was therefore inferred to be even more recent. The estimated demographic history supports the interpretation that pumas suffered a severe demographic decline in the Late Pleistocene throughout their distribution, followed by population expansion and re-colonization of the range, initiating from South America. PMID:24385863

  9. Molecular evidence for a recent demographic expansion in the puma (Puma concolor) (Mammalia, Felidae).

    PubMed

    Matte, Eunice M; Castilho, Camila S; Miotto, Renata A; Sana, Denis A; Johnson, Warren E; O'Brien, Stephen J; de Freitas, Thales R O; Eizirik, Eduardo

    2013-12-01

    The puma is an iconic predator that ranges throughout the Americas, occupying diverse habitats. Previous phylogeographic analyses have revealed that it exhibits moderate levels of genetic structure across its range, with few of the classically recognized subspecies being supported as distinct demographic units. Moreover, most of the species' molecular diversity was found to be in South America. To further investigate the phylogeographic structure and demographic history of pumas we analyzed mtDNA sequences from 186 individuals sampled throughout their range, with emphasis on South America. Our objectives were to refine the phylogeographic assessment within South America and to investigate the demographic history of pumas using a coalescent approach. Our results extend previous phylogeographic findings, reassessing the delimitation of historical population units in South America and demonstrating that this species experienced a considerable demographic expansion in the Holocene, ca. 8,000 years ago. Our analyses indicate that this expansion occurred in South America, prior to the hypothesized re-colonization of North America, which was therefore inferred to be even more recent. The estimated demographic history supports the interpretation that pumas suffered a severe demographic decline in the Late Pleistocene throughout their distribution, followed by population expansion and re-colonization of the range, initiating from South America.

  10. Population expansions dominate demographic histories of endemic and widespread Pacific reef fishes

    PubMed Central

    Delrieu-Trottin, Erwan; Mona, Stefano; Maynard, Jeffrey; Neglia, Valentina; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge

    2017-01-01

    Despite the unique nature of endemic species, their origin and population history remain poorly studied. We investigated the population history of 28 coral reef fish species, close related, from the Gambier and Marquesas Islands, from five families, with range size varying from widespread to small-range endemic. We analyzed both mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data using neutrality test and Bayesian analysis (EBSP and ABC). We found evidence for demographic expansions for most species (24 of 28), irrespective of range size, reproduction strategy or archipelago. The timing of the expansions varied greatly among species, from 8,000 to 2,000,000 years ago. The typical hypothesis for reef fish that links population expansions to the Last Glacial Maximum fit for 14 of the 24 demographic expansions. We propose two evolutionary processes that could lead to expansions older than the LGM: (a) we are retrieving the signature of an old colonization process for widespread, large-range endemic and paleoendemic species or (b) speciation; the expansion reflects the birth of the species for neoendemic species. We show for the first time that the demographic histories of endemic and widespread reef fish are not distinctly different and suggest that a number of processes drive endemism. PMID:28091580

  11. Population expansions dominate demographic histories of endemic and widespread Pacific reef fishes.

    PubMed

    Delrieu-Trottin, Erwan; Mona, Stefano; Maynard, Jeffrey; Neglia, Valentina; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge

    2017-01-16

    Despite the unique nature of endemic species, their origin and population history remain poorly studied. We investigated the population history of 28 coral reef fish species, close related, from the Gambier and Marquesas Islands, from five families, with range size varying from widespread to small-range endemic. We analyzed both mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data using neutrality test and Bayesian analysis (EBSP and ABC). We found evidence for demographic expansions for most species (24 of 28), irrespective of range size, reproduction strategy or archipelago. The timing of the expansions varied greatly among species, from 8,000 to 2,000,000 years ago. The typical hypothesis for reef fish that links population expansions to the Last Glacial Maximum fit for 14 of the 24 demographic expansions. We propose two evolutionary processes that could lead to expansions older than the LGM: (a) we are retrieving the signature of an old colonization process for widespread, large-range endemic and paleoendemic species or (b) speciation; the expansion reflects the birth of the species for neoendemic species. We show for the first time that the demographic histories of endemic and widespread reef fish are not distinctly different and suggest that a number of processes drive endemism.

  12. Population expansions dominate demographic histories of endemic and widespread Pacific reef fishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delrieu-Trottin, Erwan; Mona, Stefano; Maynard, Jeffrey; Neglia, Valentina; Veuille, Michel; Planes, Serge

    2017-01-01

    Despite the unique nature of endemic species, their origin and population history remain poorly studied. We investigated the population history of 28 coral reef fish species, close related, from the Gambier and Marquesas Islands, from five families, with range size varying from widespread to small-range endemic. We analyzed both mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data using neutrality test and Bayesian analysis (EBSP and ABC). We found evidence for demographic expansions for most species (24 of 28), irrespective of range size, reproduction strategy or archipelago. The timing of the expansions varied greatly among species, from 8,000 to 2,000,000 years ago. The typical hypothesis for reef fish that links population expansions to the Last Glacial Maximum fit for 14 of the 24 demographic expansions. We propose two evolutionary processes that could lead to expansions older than the LGM: (a) we are retrieving the signature of an old colonization process for widespread, large-range endemic and paleoendemic species or (b) speciation; the expansion reflects the birth of the species for neoendemic species. We show for the first time that the demographic histories of endemic and widespread reef fish are not distinctly different and suggest that a number of processes drive endemism.

  13. Postglacial range shift and demographic expansion of the marine intertidal snail Batillaria attramentaria

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Phuong-Thao; Kwan, Ye-Seul; Kim, Boa; Won, Yong-Jin

    2015-01-01

    To address the impacts of past climate changes, particularly since the last glacial period, on the history of the distribution and demography of marine species, we investigated the evolutionary and demographic responses of the intertidal batillariid gastropod, Batillaria attramentaria, to these changes, using the snail as a model species in the northwest Pacific. We applied phylogeographic and divergence population genetic approaches to mitochondrial COI sequences from B. attramentaria. To cover much of its distributional range, 197 individuals collected throughout Korea and 507 publically available sequences (mostly from Japan) were used. Finally, a Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) method was applied to reconstruct the demographic history of this species. We found four differentiated geographic groups around Korea, confirming the presence of two distinct, geographically subdivided haplogroups on the Japanese coastlines along the bifurcated routes of the warm Tsushima and Kuroshio Currents. These two haplogroups were estimated to have begun to split approximately 400,000 years ago. Population divergence analysis supported the hypothesis that the Yellow Sea was populated by a northward range expansion of a small fraction of founders that split from a southern ancestral population since the last glacial maximum (LGM: 26,000–19,000 years ago), when the southern area became re-submerged. BSP analyses on six geographically and genetically defined groups in Korea and Japan consistently demonstrated that each group has exponentially increased approximately since the LGM. This study resolved the phylogeography of B. attramentaria as a series of events connected over space and time; while paleoceanographic conditions determining the connectivity of neighboring seas in East Asia are responsible for the vicariance of this species, the postglacial sea-level rise and warming temperatures have played a crucial role in rapid range shifts and broad demographic expansions of its

  14. Postglacial range shift and demographic expansion of the marine intertidal snail Batillaria attramentaria.

    PubMed

    Ho, Phuong-Thao; Kwan, Ye-Seul; Kim, Boa; Won, Yong-Jin

    2015-01-01

    To address the impacts of past climate changes, particularly since the last glacial period, on the history of the distribution and demography of marine species, we investigated the evolutionary and demographic responses of the intertidal batillariid gastropod, Batillaria attramentaria, to these changes, using the snail as a model species in the northwest Pacific. We applied phylogeographic and divergence population genetic approaches to mitochondrial COI sequences from B. attramentaria. To cover much of its distributional range, 197 individuals collected throughout Korea and 507 publically available sequences (mostly from Japan) were used. Finally, a Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) method was applied to reconstruct the demographic history of this species. We found four differentiated geographic groups around Korea, confirming the presence of two distinct, geographically subdivided haplogroups on the Japanese coastlines along the bifurcated routes of the warm Tsushima and Kuroshio Currents. These two haplogroups were estimated to have begun to split approximately 400,000 years ago. Population divergence analysis supported the hypothesis that the Yellow Sea was populated by a northward range expansion of a small fraction of founders that split from a southern ancestral population since the last glacial maximum (LGM: 26,000-19,000 years ago), when the southern area became re-submerged. BSP analyses on six geographically and genetically defined groups in Korea and Japan consistently demonstrated that each group has exponentially increased approximately since the LGM. This study resolved the phylogeography of B. attramentaria as a series of events connected over space and time; while paleoceanographic conditions determining the connectivity of neighboring seas in East Asia are responsible for the vicariance of this species, the postglacial sea-level rise and warming temperatures have played a crucial role in rapid range shifts and broad demographic expansions of its

  15. Demographic expansions in South America: enlightening a complex scenario with genetic and linguistic data.

    PubMed

    Ramallo, Virginia; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Bravi, Claudio; Coble, Michael D; Salzano, Francisco M; Hünemeier, Tábita; Bortolini, Maria Cátira

    2013-03-01

    Native Americans are characterized by specific and unique patterns of genetic and cultural/linguistic diversities, and this information has been used to understand patterns of geographic dispersion, and the relationship between these peoples. Particularly interesting are the Tupi and Je speaker dispersions. At present, a large number of individuals speak languages of these two stocks; for instance, Tupi-Guarani is one of the official languages in Paraguay, Bolivia, and the Mercosul economic block. Although the Tupi expansion can be compared in importance to the Bantu migration in Africa, little is known about this event relative to others. Equal and even deeper gaps exist concerning the Je-speakers' expansion. This study aims to elucidate some aspects of these successful expansions. To meet this purpose, we analyzed Native American mtDNA complete control region from nine different populations and included HVS-I sequences available in the literature, resulting in a total of 1,176 samples investigated. Evolutionary relationships were explored through median-joining networks and genetic/geographic/linguistic correlations with Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Both Tupi and Je showed general traces of ancient or more recent fission-fusion processes, but a very different pattern of demographic expansion. Tupi populations displayed a classical isolation-by-distance pattern, while Je groups presented an intricate and nonlinear mode of dispersion. We suggest that the collective memory and other cultural processes could be important factors influencing the fission-fusion events, which likely contributed to the genetic structure, evolution, and dispersion of Native American populations.

  16. Low genetic diversity and recent demographic expansion in the red starfish Echinaster sepositus (Retzius 1816)

    PubMed Central

    Garcia-Cisneros, Alex; Palacín, Creu; Ben Khadra, Yousra; Pérez-Portela, Rocío

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the phylogeography and genetic structure of populations and the processes responsible of patterns therein is crucial for evaluating the vulnerability of marine species and developing management strategies. In this study, we explore how past climatic events and ongoing oceanographic and demographic processes have shaped the genetic structure and diversity of the Atlanto-Mediterranean red starfish Echinaster sepositus. The species is relatively abundant in some areas of the Mediterranean Sea, but some populations have dramatically decreased over recent years due to direct extraction for ornamental aquariums and souvenir industries. Analyses across most of the distribution range of the species based on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene and eight microsatellite loci revealed very low intraspecific genetic diversity. The species showed a weak genetic structure within marine basins despite the a priori low dispersal potential of its lecithotrophic larva. Our results also revealed a very recent demographic expansion across the distribution range of the species. The genetic data presented here indicate that the species might be highly vulnerable, due to its low intraspecific genetic diversity. PMID:27627860

  17. Microsatellite data show recent demographic expansions in sedentary but not in nomadic human populations in Africa and Eurasia.

    PubMed

    Aimé, Carla; Verdu, Paul; Ségurel, Laure; Martinez-Cruz, Begoña; Hegay, Tatyana; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2014-10-01

    The transition from hunting and gathering to plant and animal domestication was one of the most important cultural and technological revolutions in human history. According to archeologists and paleoanthropologists, this transition triggered major demographic expansions. However, few genetic studies have found traces of Neolithic expansions in the current repartition of genetic polymorphism, pointing rather toward Paleolithic expansions. Here, we used microsatellite autosomal data to investigate the past demographic history of 87 African and Eurasian human populations with contrasted lifestyles (nomadic hunter-gatherers, semi-nomadic herders and sedentary farmers). Likely due to the combination of a higher mutation rate and the possibility to analyze several loci as independent replicates of the coalescent process, the analysis of microsatellite data allowed us to infer more recent expansions than previous genetic studies, potentially resulting from the Neolithic transition. Despite the variability in their location and environment, we found consistent expansions for all sedentary farmers, while we inferred constant population sizes for all hunter-gatherers and most herders that could result from constraints linked to a nomadic or semi-nomadic lifestyle and/or competition for land between herders and farmers. As an exception, we inferred expansions for Central Asian herders. This might be linked with the arid environment of this area that may have been more favorable to nomadic herders than to sedentary farmers. Alternatively, current Central Asian herders may descent from populations who have first experienced a transition from hunter-gathering to sedentary agropastoralism, and then a second transition to nomadic herding.

  18. Urban Change: Understanding how expansion and densification relate to demographic change and their implications for climate change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balk, D.; Jones, B.; Liu, Z.; Nghiem, S. V.; Pesaresi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization is the most demographic significant trend of the 21st century particularly in Asia. Characterizing it in a spatial context is difficult given the moderate resolution data provided by traditional sources of demographic data. Previous work on Saigon has shown by using these data together that much more about the correlates and potential consequences of change in the form and expansion of urban change can be learned than with a single data source alone. In this paper, we expand our analysis to two other much different urban and socioeconomic settings: Dhaka and Beijing. Particularly, where the demographic and socioeconomic indicators of change are too infrequent to capture annual change, use of satellites in combination with demographic data may be especially useful for capturing change in exurban and periurban areas, or in smaller cities within larger urban agglomerations. Using spatial regression techniques, we estimate statistical relationships between remotely sensed data sets to assess the ability demographic changes to predict urban changes as detected by two different satellite measures of change 2000-2010 in Dhaka, Saigon, and Beijing. We then predict socioeconomic outcomes associated with emissions and vulnerability proxies. We use two much different types of satellite data -- the Dense Sample Method (DSM) analysis of the NASA scatterometer data and new built-up area data from the Global Human Settlement Layer of the JRC - which respectively proxy for increases in building heights (vertical expansion) and impervious surface-type changes (horizontal expansion). These different data products help us to better understand the evolution of the built environment and urban form, while the underlying demographic data provide information regarding composition of urban population change, at different levels of economic development, built-upness, and population density. Combining these types of data yields important, high resolution spatial information that

  19. Quaternary range and demographic expansion of Liolaemus darwinii (Squamata: Liolaemidae) in the Monte Desert of Central Argentina using Bayesian phylogeography and ecological niche modelling.

    PubMed

    Camargo, Arley; Werneck, Fernanda P; Morando, Mariana; Sites, Jack W; Avila, Luciano J

    2013-08-01

    Until recently, most phylogeographic approaches have been unable to distinguish between demographic and range expansion processes, making it difficult to test for the possibility of range expansion without population growth and vice versa. In this study, we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to reconstruct both demographic and range expansion in the lizard Liolaemus darwinii of the Monte Desert in Central Argentina, during the Late Quaternary. Based on analysis of 14 anonymous nuclear loci and the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA gene, we detected signals of demographic expansion starting at ~55 ka based on Bayesian Skyline and Skyride Plots. In contrast, Bayesian relaxed models of spatial diffusion suggested that range expansion occurred only between ~95 and 55 ka, and more recently, diffusion rates were very low during demographic expansion. The possibility of population growth without substantial range expansion could account for the shared patterns of demographic expansion during the Last Glacial Maxima (OIS 2 and 4) in fish, small mammals and other lizards of the Monte Desert. We found substantial variation in diffusion rates over time, and very high rates during the range expansion phase, consistent with a rapidly advancing expansion front towards the southeast shown by palaeo-distribution models. Furthermore, the estimated diffusion rates are congruent with observed dispersal rates of lizards in field conditions and therefore provide additional confidence to the temporal scale of inferred phylogeographic patterns. Our study highlights how the integration of phylogeography with palaeo-distribution models can shed light on both demographic and range expansion processes and their potential causes.

  20. Molecular Evidence of Demographic Expansion of the Chagas Disease Vector Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) in Colombia

    PubMed Central

    Gómez-Palacio, Andrés; Triana, Omar

    2014-01-01

    Background Triatoma dimidiata is one of the most significant vectors of Chagas disease in Central America and Colombia, and, as in most species, its pattern of genetic variation within and among populations is strongly affected by its phylogeographic history. A putative origin from Central America has been proposed for Colombian populations, and high genetic differentiation among three biographically different population groups has recently been evidenced. Analyses based on putatively neutral markers provide data from which past events, such as population expansions and colonization, can be inferred. We analyzed the genealogies of the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide dehydrogenase 4 (ND4) and the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1-mitochondrial genes, as well as partial nuclear ITS-2 DNA sequences obtained across most of the eco-geographical range in Colombia, to assess the population structure and demographic factors that may explain the geographical distribution of T. dimidiata in this country. Results The population structure results support a significant association between genetic divergence and the eco-geographical location of population groups, suggesting that clear signals of demographic expansion can explain the geographical distribution of haplotypes of population groups. Additionally, empirical date estimation of the event suggests that the population's expansion can be placed after the emergence of the Panama Isthmus, and that it was possibly followed by a population fragmentation process, perhaps resulting from local adaptation accomplished by orographic factors such as geographical isolation. Conclusion Inferences about the historical population processes in Colombian T. dimidiata populations are generally in accordance with population expansions that may have been accomplished by two important biotic and orographic events such as the Great American Interchange and the uplift of the eastern range of the Andes mountains in central Colombia. PMID:24625572

  1. Genetic Signals of Demographic Expansion in Downy Woodpecker (Picoides pubescens) after the Last North American Glacial Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Pulgarín-R, Paulo C.; Burg, Theresa M.

    2012-01-01

    The glacial cycles of the Pleistocene have been recognized as important, large-scale historical processes that strongly influenced the demographic patterns and genetic structure of many species. Here we present evidence of a postglacial expansion for the Downy Woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), a common member of the forest bird communities in North America with a continental distribution. DNA sequences from the mitochondrial tRNA-Lys, and ATPase 6 and 8 genes, and microsatellite data from seven variable loci were combined with a species distribution model (SDM) to infer possible historical scenarios for this species after the last glacial maximum. Analyses of Downy Woodpeckers from 23 geographic areas suggested little differentiation, shallow genealogical relationships, and limited population structure across the species’ range. Microsatellites, which have higher resolution and are able to detect recent differences, revealed two geographic groups where populations along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains (Montana, Utah, Colorado, and southern Alberta) were genetically isolated from the rest of the sampled populations. Mitochondrial DNA, an important marker to detect historical patterns, recovered only one group. However, populations in Idaho and southeast BC contained high haplotype diversity and, in general were characterized by the absence of the most common mtDNA haplotype. The SDM suggested several areas in the southern US as containing suitable Downy Woodpecker habitat during the LGM. The lack of considerable geographic structure and the starburst haplotype network, combined with several population genetic tests, suggest a scenario of demographic expansion during the last part of Pleistocene and early Holocene. PMID:22792306

  2. Genetic signals of demographic expansion in Downy Woodpecker (Picoides pubescens) after the last North American glacial maximum.

    PubMed

    Pulgarín-R, Paulo C; Burg, Theresa M

    2012-01-01

    The glacial cycles of the Pleistocene have been recognized as important, large-scale historical processes that strongly influenced the demographic patterns and genetic structure of many species. Here we present evidence of a postglacial expansion for the Downy Woodpecker (Picoides pubescens), a common member of the forest bird communities in North America with a continental distribution. DNA sequences from the mitochondrial tRNA-Lys, and ATPase 6 and 8 genes, and microsatellite data from seven variable loci were combined with a species distribution model (SDM) to infer possible historical scenarios for this species after the last glacial maximum. Analyses of Downy Woodpeckers from 23 geographic areas suggested little differentiation, shallow genealogical relationships, and limited population structure across the species' range. Microsatellites, which have higher resolution and are able to detect recent differences, revealed two geographic groups where populations along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains (Montana, Utah, Colorado, and southern Alberta) were genetically isolated from the rest of the sampled populations. Mitochondrial DNA, an important marker to detect historical patterns, recovered only one group. However, populations in Idaho and southeast BC contained high haplotype diversity and, in general were characterized by the absence of the most common mtDNA haplotype. The SDM suggested several areas in the southern US as containing suitable Downy Woodpecker habitat during the LGM. The lack of considerable geographic structure and the starburst haplotype network, combined with several population genetic tests, suggest a scenario of demographic expansion during the last part of Pleistocene and early Holocene.

  3. Population panmixia and the Pleistocene demographic expansion of spotty belly greenling Hexagrammos agrammus in the East Sea and Northwest Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habib, Kazi Ahsan; Jeong, Dageum; Myoung, Jung-Goo; Lee, Youn-Ho

    2015-06-01

    The population genetic structure and historical demography of spotty belly greenling, Hexagrammos agrammus, which has limited distribution in the Northwest Pacific, was assessed with partial sequences of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) cytochrome b and the control region (D-loop). A total of 103 individuals were collected from four sites located at the Korea Strait (Southern coast of Korea) and the East coast of Korea and two places in the Pacific coast of Japan. For all the populations, nucleotide diversities were low (0.006-0.009) while the haplotype diversities were as high as 0.92 to 0.97, indicating that the fish has undergone a recent population expansion after experiencing bottleneck. Star-shaped patterns of haplotype networks as well as the significant negative values of Tajima's D and Fu's F S corroborate the recent population expansion. Mismatch distribution analysis reveals that the demographic expansion of the species started during the 2nd half of the Middle Pleistocene Series approximately 141,000-406,000 years ago. Hierarchical analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), the pairwise population statistics ( F ST), and the exact test of haplotype differentiation demonstrate no significant genetic differentiation among populations investigated, suggesting that spotty belly greenling is panmictic in the East Sea and the Pacific coast of Japan.

  4. Pleistocene glaciations, demographic expansion and subsequent isolation promoted morphological heterogeneity: A phylogeographic study of the alpine Rosa sericea complex (Rosaceae)

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Yun-Dong; Zhang, Yu; Gao, Xin-Fen; Zhu, Zhang-Ming

    2015-01-01

    While most temperate plants probably underwent glacial constriction to refugia and interglacial expansion, another type of interglacial refugia might have existed to maintain alpine plants during warm periods. To test this hypothesis, we applied phylogeographic methods to 763 individuals (62 populations) which belong to 7 taxonomically difficult species of the Rosa sericea complex distributed in alpine regions of the temperate and subtropical zones in eastern Asia. We used three chloroplast (cp) DNA fragments (trnL-trnF, ndhF-rpl32 and ndhJ-trnF) approximately 3,100 bp and nuclear microsatellite (nSSR) on eight sites to determine whether cold tolerant plants experienced expansion during the Pleistocene. The neutral test and mismatch distribution analysis (MDA) indicated that whole populations and major lineages of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) underwent expansion during the middle to late Pleistocene. Environmental niche modeling (ENM) indicates more suitable habitats during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. We concluded that the demographic history of R. sericea, which diverged in the middle Pleistocene, was mostly affected by climatic oscillations instead of by geographical barriers. The low genetic divergence, as well as the weak phylogenetic structure in the R. sericea complex both support treating this complex as a single taxon. PMID:26123942

  5. Explosive demographic expansion by dreissenid bivalves as a possible result of astronomical forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harzhauser, M.; Mandic, O.; Kern, A. K.; Piller, W. E.; Neubauer, T. A.; Albrecht, C.; Wilke, T.

    2013-07-01

    Human induced range expansions of invasive dreissenid bivalves are of great concern. However, the underlying biological processes are only poorly understood, partly due to the lack of information on natural expansion events. Here we use the extinct bivalve species Sinucongeria primiformis as a model organism for testing natural (i.e. non-Anthropocene) blooms of dreissenid species in a lacustrine system of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian (~10.5 Myr; Late Miocene). 600 samples from a consecutive core were evaluated for the relative abundance of this pavement-forming mollusc, which cover about 8 millennia of Late Miocene time with a decadal resolution. Our data indicate that the settlement by bivalves in the offshore environment was limited mainly by bottom water oxygenation, which follows predictable and repetitive patterns through time. These population fluctuations might be related to solar cycles: successful dreissenid settlement is re-occurring in a frequency known as the lower and upper Gleissberg cycles with a 50-80 and 90-120 yr period. These cycles appear to control regional wind patterns, which are directly linked to water mixing of the lake. This is modulated by the even more prominent 500 yr cycle, which seems to be the most important pacemaker for Lake Pannon hydrology.

  6. Explosive demographic expansion by dreissenid bivalves as a possible result of astronomical forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harzhauser, M.; Mandic, O.; Kern, A. K.; Piller, W. E.; Neubauer, T. A.; Albrecht, C.; Wilke, T.

    2013-12-01

    Human induced range expansions of invasive dreissenid bivalves are of great concern. However, the underlying biological processes are only poorly understood, partly due to the lack of information on natural expansion events. Here we use the extinct bivalve species Sinucongeria primiformis as a model organism for testing natural (i.e. pre-Anthropocene) blooms of dreissenid species in a lacustrine system of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian (~ 10.5 Myr; late Miocene). A total of 600 samples from a consecutive core were evaluated for the relative abundance of this pavement-forming mollusc, which cover about eight millennia of late Miocene time with a decadal resolution. Our data indicate that the settlement by bivalves in the offshore environment was limited mainly by bottom water oxygenation, which follows predictable and repetitive patterns through time. These population fluctuations might be related to solar cycles: successful dreissenid settlement is recurring in a frequency known as the lower and upper Gleissberg cycles with 50-80 and 90-120 yr periods. These cycles appear to control regional wind patterns, which are directly linked to water mixing of the lake. This is modulated by the even more prominent 500 yr cycle, which seems to be the most important pacemaker for Lake Pannon hydrology.

  7. Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aldridge, C.L.; Nielsen, S.E.; Beyer, H.L.; Boyce, M.S.; Connelly, J.W.; Knick, S.T.; Schroeder, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity.

  8. Range-wide population genetic structure of the Caribbean sea fan coral, Gorgonia ventalina.

    PubMed

    Andras, Jason P; Rypien, Krystal L; Harvell, Catherine D

    2013-01-01

    The population structure of benthic marine organisms is of central relevance to the conservation and management of these often threatened species, as well as to the accurate understanding of their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. A growing body of evidence suggests that marine populations can be structured over short distances despite theoretically high dispersal potential. Yet the proposed mechanisms governing this structure vary, and existing empirical population genetic evidence is of insufficient taxonomic and geographic scope to allow for strong general inferences. Here, we describe the range-wide population genetic structure of an ecologically important Caribbean octocoral, Gorgonia ventalina. Genetic differentiation was positively correlated with geographic distance and negatively correlated with oceanographically modelled dispersal probability throughout the range. Although we observed admixture across hundreds of kilometres, estimated dispersal was low, and populations were differentiated across distances <2 km. These results suggest that populations of G. ventalina may be evolutionarily coupled via gene flow but are largely demographically independent. Observed patterns of differentiation corroborate biogeographic breaks found in other taxa (e.g. an east/west divide near Puerto Rico), and also identify population divides not discussed in previous studies (e.g. the Yucatan Channel). High genotypic diversity and absence of clonemates indicate that sex is the primary reproductive mode for G. ventalina. A comparative analysis of the population structure of G. ventalina and its dinoflagellate symbiont, Symbiodinium, indicates that the dispersal of these symbiotic partners is not coupled, and symbiont transmission occurs horizontally.

  9. Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula

    PubMed Central

    Graciá, Eva; Ortego, Joaquín; Godoy, José Antonio; Pérez-García, Juan Manuel; Blanco, Guillermo; del Mar Delgado, María; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Almodóvar, Irene; Botella, Francisco; Sánchez-Zapata, José Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The study of the demographic history of species can help to understand the negative impact of recent population declines in organisms of conservation concern. Here, we use neutral molecular markers to explore the genetic consequences of the recent population decline and posterior recovery of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last century, the species was the object of extermination programs, suffering direct persecution by hunters until the 70’s. Moreover, during the last decades the eagle owl was severely impacted by increased mortality due to electrocution and the decline of its main prey species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In recent times, the decrease of direct persecution and the implementation of some conservation schemes have allowed the species’ demographic recovery. Yet, it remains unknown to which extent the past population decline and the later expansion have influenced the current species’ pattern of genetic diversity. We used eight microsatellite markers to genotype 235 eagle owls from ten Spanish subpopulations and analyse the presence of genetic signatures attributable to the recent population fluctuations experienced by the species. We found moderate levels of differentiation among the studied subpopulations and Bayesian analyses revealed the existence of three genetic clusters that grouped subpopulations from central, south-western and south-eastern Spain. The observed genetic structure could have resulted from recent human-induced population fragmentation, a patchy distribution of prey populations and/or the philopatric behaviour and habitat selection of the species. We detected an old population bottleneck, which occurred approximately 10,000 years ago, and significant signatures of recent demographic expansions. However, we did not find genetic signatures for a recent bottleneck, which may indicate that population declines were not severe enough to leave detectable signals on the

  10. Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Graciá, Eva; Ortego, Joaquín; Godoy, José Antonio; Pérez-García, Juan Manuel; Blanco, Guillermo; Delgado, María del Mar; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Almodóvar, Irene; Botella, Francisco; Sánchez-Zapata, José Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The study of the demographic history of species can help to understand the negative impact of recent population declines in organisms of conservation concern. Here, we use neutral molecular markers to explore the genetic consequences of the recent population decline and posterior recovery of the Eurasian eagle owl (Bubo bubo) in the Iberian Peninsula. During the last century, the species was the object of extermination programs, suffering direct persecution by hunters until the 70's. Moreover, during the last decades the eagle owl was severely impacted by increased mortality due to electrocution and the decline of its main prey species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). In recent times, the decrease of direct persecution and the implementation of some conservation schemes have allowed the species' demographic recovery. Yet, it remains unknown to which extent the past population decline and the later expansion have influenced the current species' pattern of genetic diversity. We used eight microsatellite markers to genotype 235 eagle owls from ten Spanish subpopulations and analyse the presence of genetic signatures attributable to the recent population fluctuations experienced by the species. We found moderate levels of differentiation among the studied subpopulations and Bayesian analyses revealed the existence of three genetic clusters that grouped subpopulations from central, south-western and south-eastern Spain. The observed genetic structure could have resulted from recent human-induced population fragmentation, a patchy distribution of prey populations and/or the philopatric behaviour and habitat selection of the species. We detected an old population bottleneck, which occurred approximately 10,000 years ago, and significant signatures of recent demographic expansions. However, we did not find genetic signatures for a recent bottleneck, which may indicate that population declines were not severe enough to leave detectable signals on the species

  11. Demographic Inference Using Spectral Methods on SNP Data, with an Analysis of the Human Out-of-Africa Expansion

    PubMed Central

    Lukić, Sergio; Hey, Jody

    2012-01-01

    We present an implementation of a recently introduced method for estimating the allele-frequency spectrum under the diffusion approximation. For single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency data from multiple populations, the method computes numerical solutions to the allele-frequency spectrum (AFS) under a complex model that includes population splitting events, migration, population expansion, and admixture. The solution to the diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) that mimics the evolutionary process is found by means of truncated polynomial expansions. In the absence of gene flow, our computation of frequency spectra yields exact results. The results are compared to those that use a finite-difference method and to forward diffusion simulations. In general, all the methods yield comparable results, although the polynomial-based approach is the most accurate in the weak-migration limit. Also, the economical use of memory attained by the polynomial expansions makes the study of models with four populations possible for the first time. The method was applied to a four-population model of the human expansion out of Africa and the peopling of the Americas, using the Environmental Genome Project (EGP) SNP database. Although our confidence intervals largely overlapped previous analyses of these data, some were significantly different. In particular, estimates of migration among African, European, and Asian populations were considerably lower than those in a previous study and the estimated time of migration out of Africa was earlier. The estimated time of founding of a human population outside of Africa was 52,000 years (95% confidence interval: 36,000–80,800 years). PMID:22865734

  12. Diversification in subtropical mountains: phylogeography, Pleistocene demographic expansion, and evolution of polyphenic mandibles in Taiwanese stag beetle, Lucanus formosanus.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jen-Pan; Lin, Chung-Ping

    2010-12-01

    Pleistocene glacial oscillations have had profound impacts on the historical population dynamics of extant species. However, the genetic consequences of past climatic changes depend largely on the latitude and topography of the regions in question. This study investigates the effect of Pleistocene glacial periods and the Central Mountain Range on the phylogeography, historical demography, and phenotypic differentiation of a montane forest-dwelling stag beetle, Lucanus formosanus (Coleoptera: Lucanidae), which exhibits extensive mandible variations across mountain ranges in subtropical Taiwan. Analyses of mitochondrial (cox1) and nuclear (wg) loci reveal that L. formosanus originated nearly 1.6 million years ago (Mya) in the early Pleistocene period and consisted of geographically overlapping Alishan and Widespread clades. A drastic population expansion starting approximately 0.2 Mya in the Widespread clade likely resulted from altitudinal range shift of the temperate forests, which was closely tied to the arrival of the Riss glacial period in the late Middle Pleistocene. A ring-like pattern of historical gene flow among neighboring populations in the vicinity of the Central Mountain Range indicates that the mountains constitute a strong vicariant barrier to the east-west gene flow of L. formosanus populations. A geographic cline of decreasing mandible size from central to north and south, and onto southeast of Taiwan is inconsistent with the low overall phylogeographic structures. The degree of mandible variation does not correlate with the expected pattern of neutral evolution, indicating that the evolutionary diversification of this morphological weapon is most likely subject to sexual or natural selection. We hypothesize that the adaptive evolution of mandibles in L. formosanus is shaped largely by the habitat heterogeneity.

  13. Forecasting deforestation and carbon emissions in tropical developing countries facing demographic expansion: a case study in Madagascar.

    PubMed

    Vieilledent, Ghislain; Grinand, Clovis; Vaudry, Romuald

    2013-06-01

    Anthropogenic deforestation in tropical countries is responsible for a significant part of global carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. To plan efficient climate change mitigation programs (such as REDD+, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), reliable forecasts of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions are necessary. Although population density has been recognized as a key factor in tropical deforestation, current methods of prediction do not allow the population explosion that is occurring in many tropical developing countries to be taken into account. Here, we propose an innovative approach using novel computational and statistical tools, including R/GRASS scripts and the new phcfM R package, to model the intensity and location of deforestation including the effect of population density. We used the model to forecast anthropogenic deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions in five large study areas in the humid and spiny-dry forests of Madagascar. Using our approach, we were able to demonstrate that the current rapid population growth in Madagascar (+3.39% per year) will significantly increase the intensity of deforestation by 2030 (up to +1.17% per year in densely populated areas). We estimated the carbon dioxide emissions associated with the loss of aboveground biomass to be of 2.24 and 0.26 tons per hectare and per year in the humid and spiny-dry forest, respectively. Our models showed better predictive ability than previous deforestation models (the figure of merit ranged from 10 to 23). We recommend this approach to reduce the uncertainty associated with deforestation forecasts. We also underline the risk of an increase in the speed of deforestation in the short term in tropical developing countries undergoing rapid population expansion.

  14. Forecasting deforestation and carbon emissions in tropical developing countries facing demographic expansion: a case study in Madagascar

    PubMed Central

    Vieilledent, Ghislain; Grinand, Clovis; Vaudry, Romuald

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic deforestation in tropical countries is responsible for a significant part of global carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. To plan efficient climate change mitigation programs (such as REDD+, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), reliable forecasts of deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions are necessary. Although population density has been recognized as a key factor in tropical deforestation, current methods of prediction do not allow the population explosion that is occurring in many tropical developing countries to be taken into account. Here, we propose an innovative approach using novel computational and statistical tools, including R/GRASS scripts and the new phcfM R package, to model the intensity and location of deforestation including the effect of population density. We used the model to forecast anthropogenic deforestation and carbon dioxide emissions in five large study areas in the humid and spiny-dry forests of Madagascar. Using our approach, we were able to demonstrate that the current rapid population growth in Madagascar (+3.39% per year) will significantly increase the intensity of deforestation by 2030 (up to +1.17% per year in densely populated areas). We estimated the carbon dioxide emissions associated with the loss of aboveground biomass to be of 2.24 and 0.26 tons per hectare and per year in the humid and spiny-dry forest, respectively. Our models showed better predictive ability than previous deforestation models (the figure of merit ranged from 10 to 23). We recommend this approach to reduce the uncertainty associated with deforestation forecasts. We also underline the risk of an increase in the speed of deforestation in the short term in tropical developing countries undergoing rapid population expansion. PMID:23789079

  15. New Mitochondrial and Nuclear Evidences Support Recent Demographic Expansion and an Atypical Phylogeographic Pattern in the Spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera, Aphrophoridae)

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ana S. B.; Silva, Sara E.; Marabuto, Eduardo; Silva, Diogo N.; Wilson, Mike R.; Thompson, Vinton; Yurtsever, Selçuk; Halkka, Antti; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Quartau, José A.; Paulo, Octávio S.; Seabra, Sofia G.

    2014-01-01

    Philaenus spumarius is a widespread insect species in the Holarctic region. Here, by focusing on the mtDNA gene COI but also using the COII and Cyt b genes and the nuclear gene EF-1α, we tried to explain how and when its current biogeographic pattern evolved by providing time estimates of the main demographic and evolutionary events and investigating its colonization patterns in and out of Eurasia. Evidence of recent divergence and expansion events at less than 0.5 Ma ago indicate that climate fluctuations in the Mid-Late Pleistocene were important in shaping the current phylogeographic pattern of the species. Data support a first split and differentiation of P. spumarius into two main mitochondrial lineages: the “western”, in the Mediterranean region and the “eastern”, in Anatolia/Caucasus. It also supports a following differentiation of the “western” lineage into two sub-lineages: the “western-Mediterranean”, in Iberia and the “eastern-Mediterranean” in the Balkans. The recent pattern seems to result from postglacial range expansion from Iberia and Caucasus/Anatolia, thus not following one of the four common paradigms. Unexpected patterns of recent gene-flow events between Mediterranean peninsulas, a close relationship between Iberia and North Africa, as well as high levels of genetic diversity being maintained in northern Europe were found. The mitochondrial pattern does not exactly match to the nuclear pattern suggesting that the current biogeographic pattern of P. spumarius may be the result of both secondary admixture and incomplete lineage sorting. The hypothesis of recent colonization of North America from both western and northern Europe is corroborated by our data and probably resulted from accidental human translocations. A probable British origin for the populations of the Azores and New Zealand was revealed, however, for the Azores the distribution of populations in high altitude native forests is somewhat puzzling and may imply a

  16. Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adam Duarte,; Hatfield, Jeffrey; Todd M. Swannack,; Michael R. J. Forstner,; M. Clay Green,; Floyd W. Weckerly,

    2015-01-01

    Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected

  17. Range-wide phylogeography and conservation genetics of a narrowly endemic stream salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis (Caudata, Hynobiidae): implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Pan, T; Wang, H; Hu, C-C; Shi, W-B; Zhao, K; Huang, X; Zhang, B-W

    2014-02-13

    The Shangcheng stout salamander (Pachyhynobius shangchengensis) is an endangered amphibian endemic to the Dabie Mountains, southeast China, and is currently threatened by habitat loss and illegal poaching. Here we used the mitochondrial DNA control region sequence (768 bp) to conduct a comprehensive investigation of genetic diversity, phylogeographic pattern, and demographic history of the species across its geographic distribution to assist its conservation. We concluded that the levels of genetic variation are relatively low in all four populations. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that the most likely phylogeographic pattern is [JGT] [KHJ] [TM, BYM]. Two distinct clades were identified in the phylogenetic tree of 28 haplotypes, corresponding to the two southern populations (TM, BYM) and two northern populations (JGT, KHJ). Significant population differentiation (FST) was detected among all populations. Among the four populations, historical demographic analyses (e.g., the g parameter, the Tajima D test, and the Fu Fs test) did not reveal definite information on population expansion except for the BYM population, which had undergone a strong population expansion event. Based on the analysis of a Bayesian skyline plot, the total population underwent a significant population fluctuation around 20 kya. This may have been triggered by the end of the last glacial maximum. In conclusion, the existence of three evolutionarily significant units (BMY-TM, KHJ, and JGT) and four management units (BMY, TM, KHJ, and JGT) is supported by our study.

  18. Spatiotemporal variation in range-wide Golden-cheeked Warbler habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Duarte, Adam; Jensen, Jennifer; Hatfield, Jeffrey S.; Weckerly, Floyd

    2013-01-01

    Habitat availability ultimately limits the distribution and abundance of wildlife species. Consequently, it is paramount to identify where wildlife habitat is and understand how it changes over time in order to implement large scale wildlife conservation plans. Yet, no work has quantified the degree of change in range-wide breeding habitat for the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia), despite the species being listed as endangered by the U.S. federal government. Thus, using available geographic information system (GIS) data and Landsat satellite imagery we quantified range-wide warbler breeding habitat change from 1999-2001 to 2010-2011. We detected a 29% reduction in total warbler breeding habitat and found that warbler breeding habitat was removed and became more fragmented at uneven rates across the warbler’s breeding range during this time period. This information will assist researchers and managers in prioritizing breeding habitat conservation efforts for the species and provide a foundation for more realistic carrying capacity scenarios when modeling golden-cheeked warbler populations over time. Additionally, this study highlights the need for future work centered on quantifying golden-cheeked warbler movement rates and distances in order to assess the degree of connectivity between increasingly fragmented habitat patches.

  19. Australian SKA Pathfinder: A High-Dynamic Range Wide-Field of View Survey Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeBoer, D. R.; Gough, R. G.; Bunton, J. D.; Cornwell, T. J.; Beresford, R. J.; Johnston, S.; Feain, I. J.; Schinckel, A. E.; Jackson, C. A.; Kesteven, M. J.; Chippendale, A.; Hampson, G. A.; O'Sullivan, J. D.; Hay, S. G.; Jacka, C. E.; Sweetnam, T. W.; Storey, M. C.; Ball, L.; Boyle, B. J.

    2009-08-01

    The Australia SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) is a new telescope under development as a world-class high-dynamic-range wide-field-of-view survey instrument. It will utilize focal plane phased array feeds on the 36 12-m antennas that will compose the array. The large amounts of data present a huge computing challenge, and ASKAP will store data products in an archive after near real-time pipeline processing. This powerful instrument will be deployed at a new radio-quiet observatory, the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory in the midwest region of Western Australia, to enable sensitive surveys of the entire sky to address some of the big questions in contemporary physics. As a pathfinder for the SKA, ASKAP will demonstrate field of view enhancement and computing/processing technology as well as the operation of a large-scale radio array in a remote and radio-quiet region of Australia.

  20. Range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veblen, Kari E.; Pyke, David A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Casazza, Michael L.; Assal, Timothy J.; Farinha, Melissa A.

    2011-01-01

    Domestic livestock grazing occurs in virtually all sagebrush habitats and is a prominent disturbance factor. By affecting habitat condition and trend, grazing influences the resources required by, and thus, the distribution and abundance of sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (for example, sage-grouse Centrocercus spp.). Yet, the risks that livestock grazing may pose to these species and their habitats are not always clear. Although livestock grazing intensity and associated habitat condition may be known in many places at the local level, we have not yet been able to answer questions about use, condition, and trend at the landscape scale or at the range-wide scale for wildlife species. A great deal of information about grazing use, management regimes, and ecological condition exists at the local level (for individual livestock management units) under the oversight of organizations such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). However, the extent, quality, and types of existing data are unknown, which hinders the compilation, mapping, or analysis of these data. Once compiled, these data may be helpful for drawing conclusions about rangeland status, and we may be able to identify relationships between those data and wildlife habitat at the landscape scale. The overall objective of our study was to perform a range-wide assessment of livestock grazing effects (and the relevant supporting data) in sagebrush ecosystems managed by the BLM. Our assessments and analyses focused primarily on local-level management and data collected at the scale of BLM grazing allotments (that is, individual livestock management units). Specific objectives included the following: 1. Identify and refine existing range-wide datasets to be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. 2. Assess the extent, quality, and types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data collected by BLM range-wide (i.e., across allotments, districts and regions). 3. Compile and

  1. Recommended methods for range-wide monitoring of prairie dogs in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, Lyman L.; Stanley, Thomas R.; Otis, David L.; Biggins, Dean E.; Stevens, Patricia D.; Koprowski, John L.; Ballard, Warren

    2011-01-01

    One of the greatest challenges for conserving grassland, prairie scrub, and shrub-steppe ecosystems is maintaining prairie dog populations across the landscape. Of the four species of prairie dogs found in the United States, the Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens) is listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) as threatened, the Gunnison's prairie dog (C. gunnisoni) is a candidate for listing in a portion of its range, and the black-tailed prairie dog (C. ludovicianus) and white-tailed prairie dog (C. leucurus) have each been petitioned for listing at least once in recent history. Although the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) determined listing is not warranted for either the black-tailed prairie dog or white-tailed prairie dog, the petitions and associated reviews demonstrated the need for the States to monitor and manage for self-sustaining populations. In response to these findings, a multi-State conservation effort was initiated for the nonlisted species which included the following proposed actions: (1) completing an assessment of each prairie dog species in each State, (2) developing a range-wide monitoring protocol for each species using a statistically valid sampling procedure that would allow comparable analyses across States, and (3) monitoring prairie dog status every 3-5 years depending upon the species. To date, each State has completed an assessment and currently is monitoring prairie dog status; however, for some species, the inconsistency in survey methodology has made it difficult to compare data year-to-year or State-to-State. At the Prairie Dog Conservation Team meeting held in November 2008, there was discussion regarding the use of different methods to survey prairie dogs. A recommendation from this meeting was to convene a panel in a workshop-type forum and have the panel review the different methods being used and provide recommendations for range-wide monitoring protocols for each species of prairie dog. Consequently, the Western

  2. Range-wide genetic connectivity of the Hawaiian monk seal and implications for translocation.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Jennifer K; Baker, Jason D; Toonen, Robert J; Harting, Albert L; Bowen, Brian W

    2011-02-01

    The Hawaiian monk seal (Monachus schauinslandi) is one of the most critically endangered marine mammals. Less than 1200 individuals remain, and the species is declining at a rate of approximately 4% per year as a result of juvenile starvation, shark predation, and entanglement in marine debris. Some of these problems may be alleviated by translocation; however, if island breeding aggregates are effectively isolated subpopulations, moving individuals may disrupt local adaptations. In these circumstances, managers must balance the pragmatic need of increasing survival with theoretical concerns about genetic viability. To assess range-wide population structure of the Hawaiian monk seal, we examined an unprecedented, near-complete genetic inventory of the species (n =1897 seals, sampled over 14 years) at 18 microsatellite loci. Genetic variation was not spatially partitioned ((w) =-0.03, p = 1.0), and a Bayesian clustering method provided evidence of one panmictic population (K =1). Pairwise F(ST) comparisons (among 7 island aggregates over 14 annual cohorts) did not reveal temporally stable, spatial reproductive isolation. Our results coupled with long-term tag-resight data confirm seal movement and gene flow throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago. Thus, human-mediated translocation of seals among locations is not likely to result in genetic incompatibilities.

  3. Connectivity of wood thrush breeding, wintering, and migration sites based on range-wide tracking.

    PubMed

    Stanley, Calandra Q; McKinnon, Emily A; Fraser, Kevin C; Macpherson, Maggie P; Casbourn, Garth; Friesen, Lyle; Marra, Peter P; Studds, Colin; Ryder, T Brandt; Diggs, Nora E; Stutchbury, Bridget J M

    2015-02-01

    Many migratory animals are experiencing rapid population declines, but migration data with the geographic scope and resolution to quantify the complex network of movements between breeding and nonbreeding regions are often lacking. Determining the most frequently used migration routes and nonbreeding regions for a species is critical for understanding population dynamics and making effective conservation decisions. We tracked the migration of individual Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) (n = 102) from across their range with light-level geolocators and, for the first time, quantified migration routes and wintering regions for distinct breeding populations. We identified regional and species-level migratory connectivity networks for this declining songbird by combining our tracking results with range-wide breeding abundance estimates and forest cover data. More than 50% of the species occupied the eastern wintering range (Honduras to Costa Rica), a region that includes only one-third of all wintering habitat and that is undergoing intensive deforestation. We estimated that half of all Wood Thrushes in North America migrate south through Florida in fall, whereas in spring approximately 73% funnel northward through a narrow span along the central U.S. Gulf Coast (88-93°W). Identifying migratory networks is a critical step for conservation of songbirds and we demonstrated with Wood Thrushes how it can highlight conservation hotspots for regional populations and species as a whole.

  4. Range-wide patterns of nuclear and chloroplast DNA diversity in Vriesea gigantea (Bromeliaceae), a neotropical forest species.

    PubMed

    Palma-Silva, C; Lexer, C; Paggi, G M; Barbará, T; Bered, F; Bodanese-Zanettini, M H

    2009-12-01

    The processes that have shaped the extraordinary species diversity in neotropical rainforests are poorly understood, and knowledge about the patterns of genetic diversity across species' ranges is scarce, in contrast to other regions of the globe. We have conducted a range-wide study of genetic diversity in a plant endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest, Vriesea gigantea (Bromeliaceae), based on a combined data set of nuclear microsatellites and chloroplast (cp) DNA markers typed in 429 plants from 13 populations. The results indicate a strong negative correlation between genetic diversity and population latitude, consistent with historical forest expansion from the northern half of the present distribution range. A deep phylogeographic split exists between the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro at ca. 23 degrees S latitude, probably reflecting past population isolation within more than one glacial refuge during the climatic changes of the Pleistocene. A comparison of genetic structures at cpDNA and nuclear markers revealed a pollen/seed flow ratio of more than 3:1, thus indicating an important role of the pollinating animals (that is, bats) in shaping the population genetic structure of this species. Diversity was reduced for cpDNA markers in the island populations off the coast, and reduced diversity and increased differentiation were observed for both nuclear and cpDNA at the edges of the species' range. The link between patterns of genetic and species diversity supports the hypothesis that both were shaped by the same biogeographic processes, triggered by the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene.

  5. Range-wide mtDNA phylogeography yields insights into the origins of Asian elephants

    PubMed Central

    Vidya, T.N.C.; Sukumar, Raman; Melnick, Don J.

    2008-01-01

    Recent phylogeographic studies of the endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) reveal two highly divergent mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages, an elucidation of which is central to understanding the species's evolution. Previous explanations for the divergent clades include introgression of mtDNA haplotypes between ancestral species, allopatric divergence of the clades between Sri Lanka or the Sunda region and the mainland, historical trade of elephants, and retention of divergent lineages due to large population sizes. However, these studies lacked data from India and Myanmar, which host approximately 70 per cent of all extant Asian elephants. In this paper, we analyse mtDNA sequence data from 534 Asian elephants across the species's range to explain the current distribution of the two divergent clades. Based on phylogenetic reconstructions, estimates of times of origin of clades, probable ancestral areas of origin inferred from dispersal–vicariance analyses and the available fossil record, we believe both clades originated from Elephas hysudricus. This probably occurred allopatrically in different glacial refugia, the α clade in the Myanmar region and the β clade possibly in southern India–Sri Lanka, 1.6–2.1 Myr ago. Results from nested clade and dispersal–vicariance analyses indicate a subsequent isolation and independent diversification of the β clade in both Sri Lanka and the Sunda region, followed by northward expansion of the clade. We also find more recent population expansions in both clades based on mismatch distributions. We therefore suggest a contraction–expansion scenario during severe climatic oscillations of the Quaternary, with range expansions from different refugia during warmer interglacials leading to the varying geographical overlaps of the two mtDNA clades. We also demonstrate that trade in Asian elephants has not substantially altered the species's mtDNA population genetic structure. PMID:19019786

  6. Range-wide mtDNA phylogeography yields insights into the origins of Asian elephants.

    PubMed

    Vidya, T N C; Sukumar, Raman; Melnick, Don J

    2009-03-07

    Recent phylogeographic studies of the endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) reveal two highly divergent mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages, an elucidation of which is central to understanding the species's evolution. Previous explanations for the divergent clades include introgression of mtDNA haplotypes between ancestral species, allopatric divergence of the clades between Sri Lanka or the Sunda region and the mainland, historical trade of elephants, and retention of divergent lineages due to large population sizes. However, these studies lacked data from India and Myanmar, which host approximately 70 per cent of all extant Asian elephants. In this paper, we analyse mtDNA sequence data from 534 Asian elephants across the species's range to explain the current distribution of the two divergent clades. Based on phylogenetic reconstructions, estimates of times of origin of clades, probable ancestral areas of origin inferred from dispersal-vicariance analyses and the available fossil record, we believe both clades originated from Elephas hysudricus. This probably occurred allopatrically in different glacial refugia, the alpha clade in the Myanmar region and the beta clade possibly in southern India-Sri Lanka, 1.6-2.1Myr ago. Results from nested clade and dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate a subsequent isolation and independent diversification of the beta clade in both Sri Lanka and the Sunda region, followed by northward expansion of the clade. We also find more recent population expansions in both clades based on mismatch distributions. We therefore suggest a contraction-expansion scenario during severe climatic oscillations of the Quaternary, with range expansions from different refugia during warmer interglacials leading to the varying geographical overlaps of the two mtDNA clades. We also demonstrate that trade in Asian elephants has not substantially altered the species's mtDNA population genetic structure.

  7. Assessing the umbrella value of a range-wide conservation network for jaguars (Panthera onca).

    PubMed

    Thornton, Daniel; Zeller, Kathy; Rondinini, Carlo; Boitani, Luigi; Crooks, Kevin; Burdeh, Christopher; Rabinowitz, Alan; Quigley, Howard

    2016-06-01

    Umbrella species are employed as conservation short-cuts for the design of reserves or reserve networks. However, empirical data on the effectiveness of umbrellas is equivocal, which has prevented more widespread application of this conservation strategy. We perform a novel, large-scale evaluation of umbrella species by assessing the potential umbrella value of a jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation network (consisting of viable populations and corridors) that extends from Mexico to Argentina. Using species richness, habitat quality, and fragmentation indices of ~1500 co-occurring mammal species, we show that jaguar populations and corridors overlap a substantial amount and percentage of high-quality habitat for co-occurring mammals and that the jaguar network performs better than random networks in protecting high-quality, interior habitat. Significantly, the effectiveness of the jaguar network as an umbrella would not have been noticeable had we focused on species richness as our sole metric of umbrella utility. Substantial inter-order variability existed, indicating the need for complementary conservation strategies for certain groups of mammals. We offer several reasons for the positive result we document, including the large spatial scale of our analysis and our focus on multiple metrics of umbrella effectiveness. Taken together, our results demonstrate that a regional, single-species conservation strategy can serve as an effective umbrella for the larger community and should help conserve viable populations and connectivity for a suite of co-occurring mammals. Current and future range-wide planning exercises for other large predators may therefore have important umbrella benefits.

  8. Data resources for range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Assal, T.J.; Veblen, K.E.; Farinha, M.A.; Aldridge, C.L.; Casazza, M.L.; Pyke, D.A.

    2012-01-01

    The data contained in this series were compiled, modified, and analyzed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report "Range-Wide Assessment of Livestock Grazing Across the Sagebrush Biome." This report can be accessed through the USGS Publications Warehouse (online linkage: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1263/). The dataset contains spatial and tabular data related to Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Grazing Allotments. We reviewed the BLM national grazing allotment spatial dataset available from the GeoCommunicator National Integrated Land System (NILS) website in 2007 (http://www.geocommunicator.gov). We identified several limitations in those data and learned that some BLM State and/or field offices had updated their spatial data to rectify these limitations, but maintained the data outside of NILS. We contacted appropriate BLM offices (State or field, 25 in all) to obtain the most recent data, assessed the data, established a data development protocol, and compiled data into a topologically enforced dataset throughout the area of interest for this project (that is, the pre-settlement distribution of Greater Sage-Grouse in the Western United States). The final database includes three spatial datasets: Allotments (BLM Grazing Allotments), OUT_Polygons (nonallotment polygons used to ensure topology), and Duplicate_Polygon_Allotments. See Appendix 1 of the aforementioned report for complete methods. The tabular data presented here consists of information synthesized by the Land Health Standard (LHS) analysis (Appendix 2), and data obtained from the BLM Rangeland Administration System (http://www.blm.gov/ras/). In 2008, available LHS data for all allotments in all regions were compiled by BLM in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request made by a private organization. The BLM provided us with a copy of these data. These data provided three major types of information that were of interest: (1) date(s) (if any) of the most recent LHS evaluation for each

  9. A phylogeographic, demographic and historical analysis of the short-tailed pit viper (Gloydius brevicaudus): evidence for early divergence and late expansion during the Pleistocene.

    PubMed

    Ding, Li; Gan, Xiao-Ni; He, Shun-Ping; Zhao, Er-Mi

    2011-05-01

    The impact of quaternary glaciation in eastern China on local fanua and flora has been a topic of considerable interest. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data and coalescent simulations to test two general biogeographic hypothesis related to the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations for a widespread ophidian species (Gloydius brevicaudus) in eastern China and Korean Peninsula. The phylogenetic analysis revealed three major lineages, the southeast Coastal, Yangtze and North Lineages. The latter two are closely related and jointly form a continental lineage. Divergence dating and coalescent simulations indicate a Late Pliocene to Early Pleistocene divergence between lineages from the southeast coast and continental interior, followed by a mid-to-late Pleistocene divergence between lineages from the north and the middle-lower Yangtze Valley across East China, suggesting that all these lineages predated the last glacial maximum. An overlapping range between the two lineages within the continental lineage and a secondary contact associated with ecological transition zones on the margins of the North China Plain were also observed. These results show that vicariance patterns dominated the history of G. brevicaudus. Though the climatic events of the Pleistocene have had a marked effect on the historical distribution and intra-specific divergence of reptiles in China, coalescent and non-coalescent demographic analyses indicate that all lineages of G. brevicaudus seem not to have been adversely affected by glacial cycles during the Late Pleistocene, presumably because of an increase in the amount of climatically mild habitat in East Asia due to a decline in elevation and the development of monsoons since the Mid-End Pleistocene.

  10. [Demographic perspectives].

    PubMed

    Parant, A

    1999-01-01

    This is a brief review of possible future developments in global population trends. The author notes that the world's population will number between 8 and 11 billion by the year 2050. Topics discussed include changes in the regional balance of population, changes in the age composition of the population, and demographic aging in Europe.

  11. Southern montane populations did not contribute to the recolonization of West Siberian Plain by Siberian larch (Larix sibirica): a range-wide analysis of cytoplasmic markers.

    PubMed

    Semerikov, Vladimir L; Semerikova, Svetlana A; Polezhaeva, Maria A; Kosintsev, Pavel A; Lascoux, Martin

    2013-10-01

    While many species were confined to southern latitudes during the last glaciations, there has lately been mounting evidence that some of the most cold-tolerant species were actually able to survive close to the ice sheets. The contribution of these higher latitude outposts to the main recolonization thrust remains, however, untested. In the present study, we use the first range-wide survey of genetic diversity at cytoplasmic markers in Siberian larch (Larix sibirica; four mitochondrial (mt) DNA loci and five chloroplast (cp) DNA SSR loci) to (i) assess the relative contributions of southern and central areas to the current L. sibirica distribution range; and (ii) date the last major population expansion in both L. sibirica and adjacent Larix species. The geographic distribution of cpDNA variation was uninformative, but that of mitotypes clearly indicates that the southernmost populations, located in Mongolia and the Tien-Shan and Sayan Mountain ranges, had a very limited contribution to the current populations of the central and northern parts of the range. It also suggests that the contribution of the high latitude cryptic refugia was geographically limited and that most of the current West Siberian Plain larch populations likely originated in the foothills of the Sayan Mountains. Interestingly, the main population expansion detected through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in all four larch species investigated here pre-dates the LGM, with a mode in a range of 220,000-1,340,000 years BP. Hence, L. sibirica, like other major conifer species of the boreal forest, was strongly affected by climatic events pre-dating the Last Glacial Maximum.

  12. Using Range-Wide Abundance Modeling to Identify Key Conservation Areas for the Micro-Endemic Bolson Tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus)

    PubMed Central

    Ureña-Aranda, Cinthya A.; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Yáñez-Arenas, Carlos; Landgrave Ramírez, Rosario; Espinosa de los Monteros, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species. PMID:26115482

  13. Using Range-Wide Abundance Modeling to Identify Key Conservation Areas for the Micro-Endemic Bolson Tortoise (Gopherus flavomarginatus).

    PubMed

    Ureña-Aranda, Cinthya A; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Yáñez-Arenas, Carlos; Landgrave Ramírez, Rosario; Espinosa de los Monteros, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species.

  14. Conservation genetics of the alligator snapping turtle: cytonuclear evidence of range-wide bottleneck effects and unusually pronounced geographic structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Echelle, A.A.; Hackler, J.C.; Lack, Justin B.; Ballard, S. R.; Roman, J.; Fox, S. F.; Leslie,, David M.; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.

    2010-01-01

    A previous mtDNA study indicated that female-mediated gene flow was extremely rare among alligator snapping turtle populations in different drainages of the Gulf of Mexico. In this study, we used variation at seven microsatellite DNA loci to assess the possibility of male-mediated gene flow, we augmented the mtDNA survey with additional sampling of the large Mississippi River System, and we evaluated the hypothesis that the consistently low within-population mtDNA diversity reflects past population bottlenecks. The results show that dispersal between drainages of the Gulf of Mexico is rare (F STmsat  = 0.43, ΦSTmtDNA = 0.98). Past range-wide bottlenecks are indicated by several genetic signals, including low diversity for microsatellites (1.1–3.9 alleles/locus; H e = 0.06–0.53) and mtDNA (h = 0.00 for most drainages; π = 0.000–0.001). Microsatellite data reinforce the conclusion from mtDNA that the Suwannee River population might eventually be recognized as a distinct taxonomic unit. It was the only population showing fixation or near fixation for otherwise rare microsatellite alleles. Six evolutionarily significant units are recommended on the basis of reciprocal mtDNA monophyly and high levels of microsatellite DNA divergence.

  15. Range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) in northwestern North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, W.C.; Pearl, C.A.; Draheim, H.M.; Adams, M.J.; Mullins, T.D.; Haig, S.M.

    2008-01-01

    The dynamic geological and climatic history of northwestern North America has made it a focal region for phylogeography. We conducted a range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) across its range in northwestern North America to understand its evolutionary history and the distribution of clades to inform conservation of R. pretiosa and Great Basin R. luteiventris, candidates for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a segment of the cytochrome b gene were obtained from 308 R. luteiventris and R. pretiosa from 96 sites. Phylogenetic analysis revealed one main R. pretiosa clade and three main R. luteiventris clades, two of which overlapped in southeastern Oregon. The three R. luteiventris clades were separated from each other by high levels of sequence divergence (average of 4.75-4.97%). Two divergent clades were also uncovered within the Great Basin. Low genetic variation in R. pretiosa and the southeastern Oregon clade of R. luteiventris suggests concern about their vulnerability to extinction. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc.

  16. Plasticity in reproduction and growth among 52 range-wide populations of a Mediterranean conifer: adaptive responses to environmental stress.

    PubMed

    Santos-Del-Blanco, L; Bonser, S P; Valladares, F; Chambel, M R; Climent, J

    2013-09-01

    A plastic response towards enhanced reproduction is expected in stressful environments, but it is assumed to trade off against vegetative growth and efficiency in the use of available resources deployed in reproduction [reproductive efficiency (RE)]. Evidence supporting this expectation is scarce for plants, particularly for long-lived species. Forest trees such as Mediterranean pines provide ideal models to study the adaptive value of allocation to reproduction vs. vegetative growth given their among-population differentiation for adaptive traits and their remarkable capacity to cope with dry and low-fertility environments. We studied 52 range-wide Pinus halepensis populations planted into two environmentally contrasting sites during their initial reproductive stage. We investigated the effect of site, population and their interaction on vegetative growth, threshold size for female reproduction, reproductive-vegetative size relationships and RE. We quantified correlations among traits and environmental variables to identify allocation trade-offs and ecotypic trends. Genetic variation for plasticity was high for vegetative growth, whereas it was nonsignificant for reproduction. Size-corrected reproduction was enhanced in the more stressful site supporting the expectation for adverse conditions to elicit plastic responses in reproductive allometry. However, RE was unrelated with early reproductive investment. Our results followed theoretical predictions and support that phenotypic plasticity for reproduction is adaptive under stressful environments. Considering expectations of increased drought in the Mediterranean, we hypothesize that phenotypic plasticity together with natural selection on reproductive traits will play a relevant role in the future adaptation of forest tree species.

  17. Range-Wide Sex-Chromosome Sequence Similarity Supports Occasional XY Recombination in European Tree Frogs (Hyla arborea)

    PubMed Central

    Brelsford, Alan; Perrin, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    In contrast with mammals and birds, most poikilothermic vertebrates feature structurally undifferentiated sex chromosomes, which may result either from frequent turnovers, or from occasional events of XY recombination. The latter mechanism was recently suggested to be responsible for sex-chromosome homomorphy in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea). However, no single case of male recombination has been identified in large-scale laboratory crosses, and populations from NW Europe consistently display sex-specific allelic frequencies with male-diagnostic alleles, suggesting the absence of recombination in their recent history. To address this apparent paradox, we extended the phylogeographic scope of investigations, by analyzing the sequences of three sex-linked markers throughout the whole species distribution. Refugial populations (southern Balkans and Adriatic coast) show a mix of X and Y alleles in haplotypic networks, and no more within-individual pairwise nucleotide differences in males than in females, testifying to recurrent XY recombination. In contrast, populations of NW Europe, which originated from a recent postglacial expansion, show a clear pattern of XY differentiation; the X and Y gametologs of the sex-linked gene Med15 present different alleles, likely fixed by drift on the front wave of expansions, and kept differentiated since. Our results support the view that sex-chromosome homomorphy in H. arborea is maintained by occasional or historical events of recombination; whether the frequency of these events indeed differs between populations remains to be clarified. PMID:24892652

  18. Range wide molecular data and niche modeling revealed the Pleistocene history of a global invader (Halyomorpha halys)

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Geng-Ping; Ye, Zhen; Du, Juan; Zhang, Dan-Li; Zhen, Ya-hui; Zheng, Chen-guang; Zhao, Li; Li, Min; Bu, Wen-Jun

    2016-01-01

    Invasive species’ Pleistocene history contains much information on its present population structure, dispersability and adaptability. In this study, the Pleistocene history of a global invasive pest (Brown Marmorated Stink Bug BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) was unveiled using the coupled approach of phylogeography and ecological niche modelling. Rangewide molecular data suggests that the Taiwan and other native populations had diverged in mid-Pleistocene. In mainland China, the native BMSB did not experience population contraction and divergence during last glacial, but persisted in interconnected populations. Combined Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) and niche modelling revealed a rapid expansion occurred during the transition of Last Inter Glacial (LIG) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). High genetic diversity and multi-reticular haplotypes network exist in the original sources populations of BMSB invasion in northern China. They were speculated to be colonized from the central China, with many derived haplotypes evolved to adapt the novel environment. The ENM future prediction suggest that BMSB may expand northward to higher latitudes in the US and Europe, because of its high invasive ability, together with the available suitable climate space there. PMID:26996353

  19. Genomic diversity, population structure, and migration following rapid range expansion in the Balsam poplar, Populus balsamifera.

    PubMed

    Keller, Stephen R; Olson, Matthew S; Silim, Salim; Schroeder, William; Tiffin, Peter

    2010-03-01

    Rapid range expansions can cause pervasive changes in the genetic diversity and structure of populations. The postglacial history of the Balsam Poplar, Populus balsamifera, involved the colonization of most of northern North America, an area largely covered by continental ice sheets during the last glacial maximum. To characterize how this expansion shaped genomic diversity within and among populations, we developed 412 SNP markers that we assayed for a range-wide sample of 474 individuals sampled from 34 populations. We complemented the SNP data set with DNA sequence data from 11 nuclear loci from 94 individuals, and used coalescent analyses to estimate historical population size, demographic growth, and patterns of migration. Bayesian clustering identified three geographically separated demes found in the Northern, Central, and Eastern portions of the species' range. These demes varied significantly in nucleotide diversity, the abundance of private polymorphisms, and population substructure. Most measures supported the Central deme as descended from the primary refuge of diversity. Both SNPs and sequence data suggested recent population growth, and coalescent analyses of historical migration suggested a massive expansion from the Centre to the North and East. Collectively, these data demonstrate the strong influence that range expansions exert on genomic diversity, both within local populations and across the range. Our results suggest that an in-depth knowledge of nucleotide diversity following expansion requires sampling within multiple populations, and highlight the utility of combining insights from different data types in population genomic studies.

  20. The great human expansion.

    PubMed

    Henn, Brenna M; Cavalli-Sforza, L L; Feldman, Marcus W

    2012-10-30

    Genetic and paleoanthropological evidence is in accord that today's human population is the result of a great demic (demographic and geographic) expansion that began approximately 45,000 to 60,000 y ago in Africa and rapidly resulted in human occupation of almost all of the Earth's habitable regions. Genomic data from contemporary humans suggest that this expansion was accompanied by a continuous loss of genetic diversity, a result of what is called the "serial founder effect." In addition to genomic data, the serial founder effect model is now supported by the genetics of human parasites, morphology, and linguistics. This particular population history gave rise to the two defining features of genetic variation in humans: genomes from the substructured populations of Africa retain an exceptional number of unique variants, and there is a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity within populations living outside of Africa. These two patterns are relevant for medical genetic studies mapping genotypes to phenotypes and for inferring the power of natural selection in human history. It should be appreciated that the initial expansion and subsequent serial founder effect were determined by demographic and sociocultural factors associated with hunter-gatherer populations. How do we reconcile this major demic expansion with the population stability that followed for thousands years until the inventions of agriculture? We review advances in understanding the genetic diversity within Africa and the great human expansion out of Africa and offer hypotheses that can help to establish a more synthetic view of modern human evolution.

  1. The great human expansion

    PubMed Central

    Henn, Brenna M.; Cavalli-Sforza, L. L.; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2012-01-01

    Genetic and paleoanthropological evidence is in accord that today’s human population is the result of a great demic (demographic and geographic) expansion that began approximately 45,000 to 60,000 y ago in Africa and rapidly resulted in human occupation of almost all of the Earth’s habitable regions. Genomic data from contemporary humans suggest that this expansion was accompanied by a continuous loss of genetic diversity, a result of what is called the “serial founder effect.” In addition to genomic data, the serial founder effect model is now supported by the genetics of human parasites, morphology, and linguistics. This particular population history gave rise to the two defining features of genetic variation in humans: genomes from the substructured populations of Africa retain an exceptional number of unique variants, and there is a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity within populations living outside of Africa. These two patterns are relevant for medical genetic studies mapping genotypes to phenotypes and for inferring the power of natural selection in human history. It should be appreciated that the initial expansion and subsequent serial founder effect were determined by demographic and sociocultural factors associated with hunter-gatherer populations. How do we reconcile this major demic expansion with the population stability that followed for thousands years until the inventions of agriculture? We review advances in understanding the genetic diversity within Africa and the great human expansion out of Africa and offer hypotheses that can help to establish a more synthetic view of modern human evolution. PMID:23077256

  2. Dancing with Demographers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robertson, Heather-Jane

    2000-01-01

    Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

  3. Demographics: People and Markets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merrick, Thomas W.; Tordella, Stephen J.

    1988-01-01

    Population shifts directly affect the bottom line, so the basics of demography are now basic to business as well. Demographics combine demographic data with socioeconomic and geographic factors to help business and other managers know the market for the goods and services they offer. This guide explains market, product, and site analyses,…

  4. Low-speed wind-tunnel investigation of flight spoilers as trailing-vortex-alleviation devices on a medium range wide-body tri-jet airplane model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Croom, D. R.; Vogler, R. D.; Williams, G. M.

    1976-01-01

    An investigation was made in the V/STOL tunnel to determine, by the trailing wing sensor technique, the effectiveness of various segments of the existing flight spoilers on a medium range wide body tri-jet transport airplane model when they were deflected as trailing vortex alleviation devices. The four combinations of flight spoiler segments investigated were effective in reducing the induced rolling moment on the trailing wing model by as much as 15 to 60 percent at distances behind the transport model of from 3.9 to 19.6 transport wing spans, 19.6 spans being the downstream limit of distances used. Essentially all of the reduction in induced rolling moment on the trailing wing model was realized at a spoiler deflection of about 45 deg.

  5. Universal Expansion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McArdle, Heather K.

    1997-01-01

    Describes a week-long activity for general to honors-level students that addresses Hubble's law and the universal expansion theory. Uses a discrepant event-type activity to lead up to the abstract principles of the universal expansion theory. (JRH)

  6. Low speed wind tunnel investigation of flight spoilers as trailing-vortex-alleviation devices on an extended-range wide body tri-jet airplane model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Croom, D. R.; Vogler, R. D.; Thelander, J. A.

    1976-01-01

    An investigation was made in the Langley V/STOL tunnel to determine, by the trailing wing sensor technique, the effectiveness of various segments of the existing flight spoilers on an extended-range wide-body tri-jet transport airplane model when they were deflected as trailing-vortex-alleviation devices. On the transport model with the approach flap configuration, the four combinations of flight-spoiler segments investigated were effective in reducing the induced rolling moment on the trailing wing model by as much as 25 to 45 percent at downstream distances behind the transport model of 9.2 and 18.4 transport wing spans. On the transport airplane model with the landing flap configuration, the four combinations of flight-spoiler segments investigated were effective in reducing the induced rolling moment on the trailing wing model by as much as 35 to 60 percent at distances behind the transport model of from 3.7 to 18.4 transport wing spans, 18.4 spans being the downstream limit of distances used.

  7. Range-wide network of priority areas for greater sage-grouse - a design for conserving connected distributions or isolating individual zoos?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crist, Michele R.; Knick, Steven T.; Hanser, Steven E.

    2015-09-08

    The network of areas delineated in 11 Western States for prioritizing management of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) represents a grand experiment in conservation biology and reserve design. We used centrality metrics from social network theory to gain insights into how this priority area network might function. The network was highly centralized. Twenty of 188 priority areas accounted for 80 percent of the total centrality scores. These priority areas, characterized by large size and a central location in the range-wide distribution, are strongholds for greater sage-grouse populations and also might function as sources. Mid-ranking priority areas may serve as stepping stones because of their location between large central and smaller peripheral priority areas. The current network design and conservation strategy has risks. The contribution of almost one-half (n = 93) of the priority areas combined for less than 1 percent of the cumulative centrality scores for the network. These priority areas individually are likely too small to support viable sage-grouse populations within their boundary. Without habitat corridors to connect small priority areas either to larger priority areas or as a clustered group within the network, their isolation could lead to loss of sage-grouse within these regions of the network. 

  8. Demographic changes and nationalism.

    PubMed

    Vishnevskii, A G

    1995-01-01

    This article examines the different characteristics of the many peoples inhabiting what used to be the Soviet Union and communist Eastern Europe, including Yugoslavia. The differences among these nationalities, or ethnic groups, are illustrated using the example of demographic modernization, showing how different peoples have or have not passed through the demographic transition process. The author looks at ethnic differences in mortality, fertility, natural increase, and migration, as well as economic and social inequalities among ethnic groups. The prospects for inter-ethnic conflict are assessed.

  9. Reassessing the Demographic Imperative

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Folts, W. Edward; Rosenberg, Edwin; Muir, Kenneth B.; Baumhover, Lorin A.

    2005-01-01

    For many years gerontologists have discussed the consequences of advances that have lengthened lives but have been less successful at improving the quality of those lives. While this debate continues, the resulting demographic shift in the age profile of the United States threatens to overwhelm our ability to care for those who most need…

  10. The Demographic Imperative

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jordan, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    As the United States moves toward becoming a "minority-majority" country, what more can--and should--college presidents and governing boards do to provide low-income students and students of color with a pipeline to high-quality education? Ongoing discourse about shifting demographics locally and nationally must be built into…

  11. Changing Hispanic Demographics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKay, Emily Gantz

    This report provides a demographic overview of Hispanics in the United States. Information was drawn largely from recent census figures. The following highlights are reported: (1) Hispanic Americans are the youngest and fastest growing minority group, but they are also more likely than non-Hispanics to drop out of school, be unemployed or…

  12. Youth Demographics. Fact Sheet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopez, Mark Hugo; Marcelo, Karlo Barrios

    2006-01-01

    This fact sheet compares the numbers of 18-25 year-old residents and citizens by gender, race, ethnicity, geographic distribution, marital status, military status, unemployment, educational attainment, and assesses population trends from 1968-2006. It explores such demographic characteristics of young people using data from the March Annual…

  13. Human population growth and the demographic transition.

    PubMed

    Bongaarts, John

    2009-10-27

    The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women's fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.

  14. Expansive Cements

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1970-10-01

    either burned simultaneously with a portland ce4nt or !r;terground with portland cement clinker ; Type M - a mixture of portland cement, calcium-aluminate... clinker that is interground with portland clinker or blended with portland cement or, alternately, it may be formed simul- taneously vrith the portland ... clinker compounds during the burning process. 3. Expansive cement, Type M is either a mixture of portland cement, calcium aluminate cement, and calcium

  15. [Reforms and demographic crisis].

    PubMed

    Velichkovskiĭ, B T

    2002-01-01

    During reformation years all basic medical and demographic indices have undergone negative changes in Russia. Since 1992 there has been a steady-state decrease in the population due to the fact that mortality rates are extremely greater than birth ones. In 2001, the Russian population reduced in number by nearly a million. The birth rates are twice less than that requires for a simple reproduction of generations. Extremely high death rates remain among the population, in able-bodied males. The main reasons for the demographic crisis are the negative consequences of the implemented reforms rather than the transition from traditional to the new present-day reproduction of the population. It is problematic now to correct the situation via active migration of Russian-speaking persons. This requires enormous funds to provide comers with jobs and dwelling. It is unreal to diminish annual departure of 100 thousand persons, mainly young educated professionals from the country, though it is joust not only a demographic, but a strategic problem. In 2001 there was a some rise in birth rates. But this is the most illusive way of solving the demographic crisis. Just in the USSR, the high educational level of the population, the socioeconomic emancipation of females and progress in medicine gave rise to the transition to the present-day reproduction of the population, which is characterized by low birth and death rates. So the population is unlikely to be replenished by high birth rates. The main way of overcoming the demographic crisis is to reduce mortality and not to allow young people to die prematurely. For this it is necessary to know the biological mechanisms responsible for extremely high mortality. It is most likely to be due to breakdown in the dynamic stereotype of higher nervous performance, as stated by I. P. Pavlov. Today it is insufficient to control alcoholism, traumatism, and smoking by healthy lifestyle propaganda in order to reduce death rates in Russian. All

  16. Building demographic literacy.

    PubMed

    Crews, K

    1993-01-01

    Students should get in the habit of seeking out the most current projections, estimates, or rates available. Since demographic measures change over time, publications based on the UN's world population projections from 1980 or 1990 may need to be supplemented using the UN's most current, 1992, projections. A 1989 Census Bureau report on the African American Population will not contain data from the 1990 Census or the 1992 Current Population Survey, conducted by the Census Bureau. Some groups collect data with advocacy in mind, as shown by the range of estimates of participants at the 1993 National March on Washington for Lesbian, Gay and Bi Equal Rights and Liberation. The organizers estimated that 1 million people participated; the US Park Police estimated 300,000; and the Washington Blade, a gay newspaper, reported 750,000. A seemingly innocuous choice of phrasing can change the meaning of demographic data. One commonly misreported concept is population doubling time which is not a prediction, but rather a concept designed to accent how fast a population is growing at the present time. At current rates, the population of India would double in size in 34 years, but it is more likely that growth rates will begin to slow down somewhat during that time. Older students may be encouraged to examine the assumptions behind population projections. The UN's long-range projection that world population will grow to 10 billion by 2050 is based on certain assumption about fertility and mortality during the period. With regard to the fastest growing US minority, Hispanics added the largest number of people to the US population during the 1980s, but Asians had the largest percent increase. The time to initiate demographic literacy is in the early grades of school.

  17. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."

  18. Expansion Microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fei; Tillberg, Paul W.; Boyden, Edward S.

    2014-01-01

    In optical microscopy, fine structural details are resolved by using refraction to magnify images of a specimen. Here we report the discovery that, by synthesizing a swellable polymer network within a specimen, it can be physically expanded, resulting in physical magnification. By covalently anchoring specific labels located within the specimen directly to the polymer network, labels spaced closer than the optical diffraction limit can be isotropically separated and optically resolved, a process we call expansion microscopy (ExM). Thus, this process can be used to perform scalable super-resolution microscopy with diffraction-limited microscopes. We demonstrate ExM with effective ~70 nm lateral resolution in both cultured cells and brain tissue, performing three-color super-resolution imaging of ~107 μm3 of the mouse hippocampus with a conventional confocal microscope. PMID:25592419

  19. Thermal Expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ventura, Guglielmo; Perfetti, Mauro

    All solid materials, when cooled to low temperatures experience a change in physical dimensions which called "thermal contraction" and is typically lower than 1 % in volume in the 4-300 K temperature range. Although the effect is small, it can have a heavy impact on the design of cryogenic devices. The thermal contraction of different materials may vary by as much as an order of magnitude: since cryogenic devices are constructed at room temperature with a lot of different materials, one of the major concerns is the effect of the different thermal contraction and the resulting thermal stress that may occur when two dissimilar materials are bonded together. In this chapter, theory of thermal contraction is reported in Sect. 1.2 . Section 1.3 is devoted to the phenomenon of negative thermal expansion and its applications.

  20. China's demographic dilemma.

    PubMed

    1994-01-01

    China's population policies should take into account that further population declines between 1992 and the year 2000 will result in reducing the proportion of young people and increasing by two times the number of elderly over the age of 65 years. The aged population which was 1.2 billion in 1994 is expected to increase to 12.9% of total population. The expected increases in the elderly would make China the only country in the world, beside Japan with an expected elderly population comprising 20% of total population by 2025, ever to have such a high proportion of aged. China must decide whether it is more important to reduce population growth or secure a favorable ratio of working age persons to elderly dependents. With a high proportion of elderly in a population, there would be a need for social support from children for the elderly and increased expenditures for pensions, public health services, social welfare, and social relief. Griffith Feeney and Yuan Jianhua of the Beijing Institute of Information and Control in 1994 examined data from a 1992 national survey and found that fertility declined from 2.04 children per woman in 1990 to 1.65 children per woman in 1991, which is replacement level fertility. The reliability of the survey results has been questioned by Chinese demographers because of the change in national birth planning policy to the responsibility system among local, regional, and national political and administrative heads for family planning use. The study researchers conclude that, even with underreporting of 10% to 20%, the survey results indicate attainment of Chinese replacement level fertility. If policy continues to press for fertility decline, there would be unprecedented number of elderly and a tremendous population imbalance. Demographically, this form of age structure imbalance has never been experienced historically. The 1992 State Family Planning Commission survey results were substantiated by surveys conducted between 1982 and 1990

  1. Planet Demographics from Transits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, Andrew

    2015-08-01

    From the demographics of planets detected by the Kepler mission, we have learned that there exists approximately one planet per star for planets larger than Earth orbiting inside of 1 AU. We have also learned the relative occurrence of these planets as a function of their orbital periods, sizes, and host star masses and metallicities. In this talk I will review the key statistical findings that the planet size distribution peaks in the range 1-3 times Earth-size, the orbital period distribution is characterized by a power-law cut off at short periods, small planets are more prevalent around small stars, and that approximately 20% of Sun-like stars hosts a planet 1-2 times Earth-size in a habitable zone. Looking forward, I will describe analysis of photometry from the K2 mission that is yielding initial planet discoveries and offering the opportunity to measure planet occurrence in widely separated regions of the galaxy. Finally, I will also discuss recent techniques to discover transiting planets in space-based photometry and to infer planet population properties from the ensemble of detected and non-detected transit signals.

  2. Relations between demographic parameters.

    PubMed

    Demetrius, L

    1979-05-01

    The mean life-expectancy e describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters e and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.

  3. Demographics of Planetary Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagenal, F.; White, S.

    2011-10-01

    A survey was sent out to university departments around the US that were thought to include faculty involved in planetary science research and/or offer planetary science undergraduate or graduate degrees. This is Part A of a study of the demographics of planetary science carried out by the American Institute of Physics (AIP) and sponsored by NASA's Planetary Science Division. Part B will be a survey of the planetary scientists with PhDs working in the US, to be carried out by the AIP in mid-2011. Starting on December 8th 2010 surveys were sent out by email to department chairs. A total of 48 departments responded between December 9th and April 8th . There is only U of Arizona that has a department that is called planetary sciences - the rest are combined with Earth sciences (14), astronomy (15), geology/geophysics (8), physics (7), atmospheric science (5), something else or combinations thereof. We present statistics from these 48 departments on faculty, researchers, graduate and undergraduate students.

  4. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  5. Final Range Wide Environmental Impact Statement

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-07-01

    Department of Fish and Game. The Rincon Indian Reservation also commented. Agencies expressed concern for biological, cultural, and water resources...Environmental Impact Statement 49 Figure 12. Vegetative Provinces of the Sonoran Desert. SO U RC E : Shreve & W igg ins, 1964 Needles Yum a San Luis ...County 76,205 106,895 119,650 Major Communities San Luis 1,946 4,212 7,910 Somerton 3,969 5,282 5,970 Wellton 911 1,066 1,075 Yuma 42,481 54,923 60,150

  6. Demographic perspectives on Saudi Arabia's development.

    PubMed

    Looney, R E

    1985-06-01

    Demographic movements likely to be taking place in Saudi Arabia were hypothesized on the basis of general knowledge. The discussion reports on population size, general Arab demographic patterns, general determinants of fertility, Arab fertility patterns, Saudi fertility patterns, mortality in general, mortality in the Middle East, mortality in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian population growth, immigration, the changing composition of the work force, and third plan targets. Some doubt exists as to the size of Saudi Arabia's population, but there is little question that the total is growing rapidly. This expansion is taking place through stepped up immigration and a relatively high natural growth of indigenous Saudis, but statistics on population size, structure, and on the number of births and deaths leaves the magnitude of a number of important demographic trends in doubt. Yet, considerable evidence exists that several of the Arab countries in the region with fairly good demographic data are likely to have similar demographic patterns. In depth analysis of the demographic dynamics of these countries, particularly Jordan and Kuwait, identified several common elements bearing on several key parameters. Using what Saudi data is available and making comparisons with these neighboring countries, one can, based on expected levels of birth and death rates, indirectly infer the natural growth of Saudi Arabia's population. With several notable exceptions, Saudi Arabia's demographic patterns show a marked similarity to those experienced in the region as a whole. The average rate of population growth in both Saudi Arabia and the Arab region is about 3% a year and in both instances fertility rates are high. The demographic structure of these countries is characterized by the youthfulness of the population. In most of the Arab countries, the population aged 15 years or under accounts for over 48% of the population. The rate of the economically active population is low, ranging from

  7. [Contemporary demographic survey of Venezuela].

    PubMed

    Osorio, E

    1985-01-01

    Current demographic trends in Venezuela are reviewed, based on data from the 1981 census. Topics covered include population growth, age structure, family characteristics, school-age population, foreign population, spatial distribution, labor force, and housing.

  8. Different kinds of genetic markers permit inference of Paleolithic and Neolithic expansions in humans.

    PubMed

    Aimé, Carla; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2017-02-01

    Recent population genetic studies have provided valuable insights on the demographic history of our species. However, some issues such as the dating of the first demographic expansions in human populations remain puzzling. Indeed, although a few genetic studies argued that the first human expansions were concomitant with the Neolithic transition, many others found signals of expansion events starting during the Palaeolithic. Here we performed a simulation study to show that these contradictory findings may result from the differences in the genetic markers used, especially if two successive expansion events occurred. For a large majority of replicates for each scenario tested, microsatellite data allow only detecting the recent expansion event in that case, whereas sequence data allow only detecting the ancient expansion. Combined with previous real data analyses, our results bring support to the ideas that (i) a first human expansions started during the Palaeolithic period, (ii) a second expansion event occurred later, concomitantly with the Neolithic transition.

  9. Rapid trait evolution drives increased speed and variance in experimental range expansions

    PubMed Central

    Weiss-Lehman, Christopher; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Melbourne, Brett A

    2017-01-01

    Range expansions are central to two ecological issues reshaping patterns of global biodiversity: biological invasions and climate change. Traditional theory considers range expansion as the outcome of the demographic processes of birth, death and dispersal, while ignoring the evolutionary implications of such processes. Recent research suggests evolution could also play a critical role in determining expansion speed but controlled experiments are lacking. Here we use flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) to show experimentally that mean expansion speed and stochastic variation in speed are both increased by rapid evolution of traits at the expansion edge. We find that higher dispersal ability and lower intrinsic growth rates evolve at the expansion edge compared with spatially nonevolving controls. Furthermore, evolution of these traits is variable, leading to enhanced variance in speed among replicate population expansions. Our results demonstrate that evolutionary processes must be considered alongside demographic ones to better understand and predict range expansions. PMID:28128350

  10. Genetic consequences of population expansions and contractions in the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) since the Late Pleistocene.

    PubMed

    Stoffel, Céline; Dufresnes, Christophe; Okello, John B A; Noirard, Christian; Joly, Pierre; Nyakaana, Silvester; Muwanika, Vincent B; Alcala, Nicolas; Vuilleumier, Séverine; Siegismund, Hans R; Fumagalli, Luca

    2015-05-01

    Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has substantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial-drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tremendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1-0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are genetically disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contemporary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.

  11. Social demographic change and autism.

    PubMed

    Liu, Kayuet; Zerubavel, Noam; Bearman, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Parental age at child's birth--which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992-2000 birth cohorts--is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents' DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

  12. Social Demographic Change and Autism

    PubMed Central

    LIU, KAYUET; ZERUBAVEL, NOAM; BEARMAN, PETER

    2010-01-01

    Parental age at child’s birth—which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992–2000 birth cohorts—is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents’ DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism. PMID:20608100

  13. Mitochondrial footprints of human expansions in Africa.

    PubMed Central

    Watson, E; Forster, P; Richards, M; Bandelt, H J

    1997-01-01

    mtDNA studies support an African origin for modern Eurasians, but expansion events within Africa have not previously been investigated. We have therefore analyzed 407 mtDNA control-region sequences from 13 African ethnic groups. A number of sequences (13%) were highly divergent and coalesced on the "mitochondrial Eve" in Africans. The remaining sequences also ultimately coalesced on this sequence but fell into four major clusters whose starlike phylogenies testify to demographic expansions. The oldest of these African expansions dates to approximately 60,000-80,000 years ago. Eurasian sequences are derived from essentially one sequence within this ancient cluster, even though a diverse mitochondrial pool was present in Africa at the time. PMID:9326335

  14. Grandparents today: a demographic profile.

    PubMed

    Szinovacz, M E

    1998-02-01

    This article presents a demographic profile of grandparents, using the National Survey of Families and Households. Specific dimensions of grandparenthood addressed include grandparents' survival, the timing of grandparenthood, grandparents' involvement in other roles, surrogate parenting, and stepgrandparents. The data indicate considerable heterogeneity among grandparents of different genders and races or ethnicities. They also suggest modifications in previous descriptions of modern grandparenthood.

  15. Grandparents Today: A Demographic Profile.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Szinovacz, Maximiliane E.

    1998-01-01

    Utilizes the National Survey of Families and Households to present a demographic profile of grandparents. Examines grandparents' survival, timing of grandparenthood, grandparents' involvement in other roles, surrogate parenting, and stepgrandparents. Data indicate considerable heterogeneity among grandparents of different genders and ethnicities.…

  16. Demographic Modelling in Weed Biocontrol

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption. Therefore, this approach has the potential to guide the pre-release selection...

  17. Enrollment Management: Demographic Changes. Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gribbons, Barry C.; Meuschke, Daylene M.

    The Office of Institutional Development and Technology and the Public Information Office created this report that identifies several topics of research in order to inform marketing efforts associated with enrollment management. The report is based upon demographic studies done at the College of Canyons to measure things such as changes in the size…

  18. Are Demographics the Nation's Destiny?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glass, Gene V.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the demographic trends affecting America's public schools. As an expert on empirical evaluation of education, the author believes the major debates over vouchers, charter schools, bilingual education, and other issues are not really about preparing the next generation to compete with China or India, or about…

  19. Demographic Factors Affecting Faculty Salary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webster, Allen L.

    1995-01-01

    Specific demographic attributes that influence salary at institutions of higher education were studied through data from 420 faculty members at 9 institutions. Results suggested that experience, publication rates, time at the institution, and possession of a terminal degree affected salary levels. The presence of salary compression was noted. (SLD)

  20. Democratic constraints on demographic policy.

    PubMed

    Grigsby, J S

    1984-01-01

    The discussion compares the population policies adopted in Sweden during the 1930s to raise fertiity and the policies considered in the US during the 1970s in response to the high fertility experienced in the 1950s. Both sets of policies recommended increased availability of birth control, more liberal abortion laws, and greater employment opportunities for women. It becomes evident that the constraints imposed by a democratic system of government translate into policy recommendations that place individual freedom of choice and equal opportunity for all citizens as higher goals than any specific demographic target. Consequently, the population commissions of Sweden and the US made similar suggestions on how to resolve their opposite demographic problems. The demographic situations in the 2 nations were antipodal, and the countries also had very different social climates. This additional disparity was insufficient to counterbalance the apparently overwhelming influence of the democratic political systems in making virtually identical policy recommendations. Yet, the contrasting social climates of Sweden in 1935 and the US in 1970-72 may explain the different reactions each commission received. In terms of the responses by both citizens and government officials to the commissions' reports, the Swedish commission was more successful. Practically all of their recommendations were enthusiastically received and quickly adopted by the Swedish Riksdag. Yet, when the criterion for success becomes whether or not a demographic target was met, it increased in the 1940s and then dropped again while the same social policies were in effect. Even before the US commission began its study, fertility in the US had fallen and continues to remain low. These findings suggest that commissions in democratic countries will most likely never recommend dramatic measures in population policy. Thus, it is questionable whether such commissions in democratic nations will totally fulfill the

  1. Demographic events and evolutionary forces shaping European genetic diversity.

    PubMed

    Veeramah, Krishna R; Novembre, John

    2014-07-24

    Europeans have been the focus of some of the largest studies of genetic diversity in any species to date. Recent genome-wide data have reinforced the hypothesis that present-day European genetic diversity is strongly correlated with geography. The remaining challenge now is to understand more precisely how patterns of diversity in Europe reflect ancient demographic events such as postglacial expansions or the spread of farming. It is likely that recent advances in paleogenetics will give us some of these answers. There has also been progress in identifying specific segments of European genomes that reflect adaptations to selective pressures from the physical environment, disease, and dietary shifts. A growing understanding of how modern European genetic diversity has been shaped by demographic and evolutionary forces is not only of basic historical and anthropological interest but also aids genetic studies of disease.

  2. Demographic Events and Evolutionary Forces Shaping European Genetic Diversity

    PubMed Central

    Veeramah, Krishna R.; Novembre, John

    2014-01-01

    Europeans have been the focus of some of the largest studies of genetic diversity in any species to date. Recent genome-wide data have reinforced the hypothesis that present-day European genetic diversity is strongly correlated with geography. The remaining challenge now is to understand more precisely how patterns of diversity in Europe reflect ancient demographic events such as postglacial expansions or the spread of farming. It is likely that recent advances in paleogenetics will give us some of these answers. There has also been progress in identifying specific segments of European genomes that reflect adaptations to selective pressures from the physical environment, disease, and dietary shifts. A growing understanding of how modern European genetic diversity has been shaped by demographic and evolutionary forces is not only of basic historical and anthropological interest but also aids genetic studies of disease. PMID:25059709

  3. Emergence of Rapid Evolution from Demographic Stochasticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2014-03-01

    The phenomenon of ``rapid evolution'' arises when genetic variation occurs fast enough to significantly change ecodynamics. Data from experiments with algae-rotifer system and bacteria-phage system show unusual dynamics when there are subpopulations of preys with different trait values, including predator-prey phase shifts near π (and distinct from the canonical value of π / 2) and so-called cryptic cycles, in which populations of preys remain constant while the predator population oscillates. Such phenomena have been modeled with deterministic differential equations containing empirical Michaelis-Menten kinetic terms and the unusual dynamics that is attributed to postulate complicated trade-off between sub-populations. Here we present a generic individual-level stochastic model of interacting populations that includes a subpopulation resistant to the predator but with metabolic cost. We solve this model by using a master equation approach, and by performing system size expansion, we find that antiphase and cryptic quasi-cycles can emerge from the combination of intrinsic demographic fluctuations and clonal mutations alone. These analytic results are then compared with Gillespie simulations, and the typical phase diagram of the system is calculated.

  4. [Population education. The school and demographic demographic knowledge].

    PubMed

    Camarena Cordova, R M

    1991-01-01

    Population education is recognized as a means of promoting changes in demographic behavior. Mexico's 1973 General Law of Population and its associated regulations assigned to education an important role in supporting the population policy. Inclusion of population content in curricular programs at the basic education level has been a major action. Content referring to sexuality, responsible parenthood, and human reproduction was introduced into the curriculum as part of the 1974 educational reform, and other topics such as family, health care, and environment were reformulated to emphasize their connection to demographic policy. The curricular change was important, but was not supported by later actions to enrich it and keep it up to date. The population education curriculum in basic education was never evaluated. Some studies of the knowledge and atti tudes of adolescents regarding sexuality, contraception, and reproduction have demonstrated the importance of the school as a channel of information but have also raised doubts about the quality and effectiveness of existing curricula. Other studies have found the population education content in primary texts to be too general, superficial, incomplete, and stereotyped in the treatment of some themes. The population education curriculum began to be reconsidered beginning in the mid-1980s. An interinstitutional group is now redefining and redesigning the population education materials that will be included in the plans, programs, and supporting material for basic education that will result from the current program for educational modernization. The relevance of these actions is obvious, despite their neglect by demographers. In the 1990-91 school year, 18.3 million children will be registered in primary and secondary schools, a figure representing 22.9% of the total 1990 population. In other words, over 20% of Mexicans will be potential recipients of population education.

  5. Evolutionary shaping of demographic schedules

    PubMed Central

    Wachter, Kenneth W.; Steinsaltz, David; Evans, Steven N.

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary processes of natural selection may be expected to leave their mark on age patterns of survival and reproduction. Demographic theory includes three main strands—mutation accumulation, stochastic vitality, and optimal life histories. This paper reviews the three strands and, concentrating on mutation accumulation, extends a mathematical result with broad implications concerning the effect of interactions between small age-specific effects of deleterious mutant alleles. Empirical data from genomic sequencing along with prospects for combining strands of theory hold hope for future progress. PMID:25024186

  6. Alcohol Consumption in Demographic Subpopulations

    PubMed Central

    Delker, Erin; Brown, Qiana; Hasin, Deborah S.

    2016-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is common across subpopulations in the United States. However, the health burden associated with alcohol consumption varies across groups, including those defined by demographic characteristics such as age, race/ethnicity, and gender. Large national surveys, such as the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, found that young adults ages 18–25 were at particularly high risk of alcohol use disorder and unintentional injury caused by drinking. These surveys furthermore identified significant variability in alcohol consumption and its consequences among racial/ethnic groups. White respondents reported the highest prevalence of current alcohol consumption, whereas alcohol abuse and dependence were most prevalent among Native Americans. Native Americans and Blacks also were most vulnerable to alcohol-related health consequences. Even within ethnic groups, there was variability between and among different subpopulations. With respect to gender, men reported more alcohol consumption and binge drinking than women, especially in older cohorts. Men also were at greater risk of alcohol abuse and dependence, liver cirrhosis, homicide after alcohol consumption, and drinking and driving. Systematic identification and measurement of the variability across demographics will guide prevention and intervention efforts, as well as future research. PMID:27159807

  7. Relating dispersal and range expansion of California sea otters.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Lauzon-Guay, Jean-Sébastien; Lewis, Mark A

    2007-06-01

    Linking dispersal and range expansion of invasive species has long challenged theoretical and quantitative ecologists. Subtle differences in dispersal can yield large differences in geographic spread, with speeds ranging from constant to rapidly increasing. We developed a stage-structured integrodifference equation (IDE) model of the California sea otter range expansion that occurred between 1914 and 1986. The non-spatial model, a linear matrix population model, was coupled to a suite of candidate dispersal kernels to form stage-structured IDEs. Demographic and dispersal parameters were estimated independent of range expansion data. Using a single dispersal parameter, alpha, we examined how well these stage-structured IDEs related small scale demographic and dispersal processes with geographic population expansion. The parameter alpha was estimated by fitting the kernels to dispersal data and by fitting the IDE model to range expansion data. For all kernels, the alpha estimate from range expansion data fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the alpha estimate from dispersal data. The IDE models with exponentially bounded kernels predicted invasion velocities that were captured within the 95% confidence bounds on the observed northbound invasion velocity. However, the exponentially bounded kernels yielded range expansions that were in poor qualitative agreement with range expansion data. An IDE model with fat (exponentially unbounded) tails and accelerating spatial spread yielded the best qualitative match. This model explained 94% and 97% of the variation in northbound and southbound range expansions when fit to range expansion data. These otters may have been fat-tailed accelerating invaders or they may have followed a piece-wise linear spread first over kelp forests and then over sandy habitats. Further, habitat-specific dispersal data could resolve these explanations.

  8. Contrasting demographic histories of the neighboring bonobo and chimpanzee.

    PubMed

    Hvilsom, Christina; Carlsen, Frands; Heller, Rasmus; Jaffré, Nina; Siegismund, Hans R

    2014-01-01

    The Pleistocene epoch was a period of dramatic climate change that had profound impacts on the population sizes of many animal species. How these species were shaped by past events is often unclear, hindering our understanding of the population dynamics resulting in present day populations. We analyzed complete mitochondrial genomes representing all four recognized chimpanzee subspecies and the bonobo to infer the recent demographic history and used simulations to exclude a confounding effect of population structure. Our genus-wide Bayesian coalescent-based analysis revealed surprisingly dissimilar demographic histories of the chimpanzee subspecies and the bonobo, despite their overlapping habitat requirements. Whereas the central and eastern chimpanzee subspecies were inferred to have expanded tenfold between around 50,000 and 80,000 years ago and today, the population size of the neighboring bonobo remained constant. The changes in population size are likely linked to changes in habitat area due to climate oscillations during the late Pleistocene. Furthermore, the timing of population expansion for the rainforest-adapted chimpanzee is concurrent with the expansion of the savanna-adapted human, which could suggest a common response to changed climate conditions around 50,000-80,000 years ago.

  9. Exoplanet Demographics with Microlensing Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaudi, B.

    2014-04-01

    Because of its unique sensitivity to low-mass, long-period, and free-floating planets, microlensing is an essential complement to our arsenal of planet detection methods. I motivate microlensing surveys for exoplanets, and in particular describe how they can be used to test models for planet formation, as well as inform our understanding of the frequency and potential habitability of low-mass planets located in the habitable zones of their host stars. I review results from current microlensing surveys, and then discuss expectations for next-generation experiments. I explain why a space-based mission is necessary to realize the full potential of microlensing. When combined with the results from complementary surveys such as Kepler, a space-based microlensing survey will yield a nearly complete picture of the demographics of planetary systems throughout the Galaxy.

  10. Demographic parameters and natural selection.

    PubMed

    Demetrius, L

    1974-12-01

    This paper introduces two new demographic parameters, the entropy and the reproductive potential of a population. The entropy of a population measures the variability of the contribution of the different age classes to the stationary age distribution. The reproductive potential measures the mean of the contribution of the different age classes to the growth rate. Using a relation between these measures and the Malthusian parameter, it is shown that in a random mating population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and under slow selection, the rate of change of entropy is equal to the genetic variance in entropy minus the genetic covariance of entropy and reproductive potential. This result is an analogue of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection.

  11. Optimal Electric Utility Expansion

    SciTech Connect

    1989-10-10

    SAGE-WASP is designed to find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electrical utility system. New units can be automatically selected from a user-supplied list of expansion candidates which can include hydroelectric and pumped storage projects. The existing system is modeled. The calculational procedure takes into account user restrictions to limit generation configurations to an area of economic interest. The optimization program reports whether the restrictions acted as a constraint on the solution. All expansion configurations considered are required to pass a user supplied reliability criterion. The discount rate and escalation rate are treated separately for each expansion candidate and for each fuel type. All expenditures are separated into local and foreign accounts, and a weighting factor can be applied to foreign expenditures.

  12. Weakly relativistic plasma expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Fermous, Rachid Djebli, Mourad

    2015-04-15

    Plasma expansion is an important physical process that takes place in laser interactions with solid targets. Within a self-similar model for the hydrodynamical multi-fluid equations, we investigated the expansion of both dense and under-dense plasmas. The weakly relativistic electrons are produced by ultra-intense laser pulses, while ions are supposed to be in a non-relativistic regime. Numerical investigations have shown that relativistic effects are important for under-dense plasma and are characterized by a finite ion front velocity. Dense plasma expansion is found to be governed mainly by quantum contributions in the fluid equations that originate from the degenerate pressure in addition to the nonlinear contributions from exchange and correlation potentials. The quantum degeneracy parameter profile provides clues to set the limit between under-dense and dense relativistic plasma expansions at a given density and temperature.

  13. Pen Branch delta expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, E.A.; Christensen, E.J.; Mackey, H.E.; Sharitz, R.R.; Jensen, J.R.; Hodgson, M.E.

    1984-02-01

    Since 1954, cooling water discharges from K Reactor ({anti X} = 370 cfs {at} 59 C) to Pen Branch have altered vegetation and deposited sediment in the Savannah River Swamp forming the Pen Branch delta. Currently, the delta covers over 300 acres and continues to expand at a rate of about 16 acres/yr. Examination of delta expansion can provide important information on environmental impacts to wetlands exposed to elevated temperature and flow conditions. To assess the current status and predict future expansion of the Pen Branch delta, historic aerial photographs were analyzed using both basic photo interpretation and computer techniques to provide the following information: (1) past and current expansion rates; (2) location and changes of impacted areas; (3) total acreage presently affected. Delta acreage changes were then compared to historic reactor discharge temperature and flow data to see if expansion rate variations could be related to reactor operations.

  14. Thermal Expansion "Paradox."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fakhruddin, Hasan

    1993-01-01

    Describes a paradox in the equation for thermal expansion. If the calculations for heating a rod and subsequently cooling a rod are determined, the new length of the cool rod is shorter than expected. (PR)

  15. The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-01-01

    in the public domain. The principal aim of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the influence of demographic factors on...This report presents a framework for understanding the implications of global demographic trends for international and U.S. national Security. One of...its goals is to spark discussion between demographers and national security analysts. The document should be of interest to security analysts

  16. Australian Defence Force Demographic Data and Challenges

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-10-01

    AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AND CHALLENGES Directorate of Strategic Personnel Planning and Research DSPPR Technical Note 10/2001...DATE 00 OCT 2001 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Australian Defence Force Demographic Data and Challenges 5a...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AND CHALLENGES The findings and views expressed in this report are the results

  17. [Population and crisis. Economic inflexibility or demographic subordination].

    PubMed

    Morelos, J B

    1989-01-01

    Much speculation, fact-based and subjective, has centered on the links between population and economic crisis, and between population and progress. In the past, famines directly affected the size and dynamics of population in affected regions, and such cycles inspired theories that regarded subsistence as the adjustment mechanism for demographic regimes. Population has alternatively been viewed as a crucial factor of production and a force for modernization and progress. After World War I and the Great Depression, many economists believed that population growth would be indispensable for renewing economic expansion. The favorable view of population growth in Mexico led to measures to repatriate emigrants, attract immigrants, and improve health conditions. The gross national product grew by around 6.0% annually on average between 1940 and 1960, and the per capita GNP by about 3%. Demographic dynamics acquired momentum by the 1960s, with high growth rates, a young age structure, considerable demographic inertia, and relative predominance of the urban population. Indications began to appear that a primarily economic solution to achieving full development would be unlikely. The polarization of development, distributive insufficiency, distortions in exchange relations for agricultural products, and incorporation of inappropriate technologies were factors decreasing the ability of the economy to respond adequately to population demands. National development was insufficient to meet growing demographic pressures in the labor market, educational system, housing, and urban services. The adjustment programs reduced even further the flexibility of the government to respond to pressures. Expectations for the future have been seriously compromised by the fall of real incomes.

  18. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

    PubMed

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

  19. Demographic studies of extrasolar planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morton, Timothy

    Uncovering the demographics of extrasolar planets is crucial to understanding the processes of their formation and evolution. In this thesis, we present four studies that contribute to this end, three of which relate to NASA's Kepler mission, which has revolutionized the field of exoplanets in the last few years. In the pre-Kepler study, we investigate a sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements---measurements of the inclination of a planet's orbit relative to the spin axis of its host star---to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. Applying methods of Bayesian model comparison to distinguish between the predictions of several different migration models, we find that the data strongly favor a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, these methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism. We then present two studies addressing astrophysical false positives in Kepler data. The Kepler mission has identified thousands of transiting planet candidates, and only relatively few have yet been dynamically confirmed as bona fide planets, with only a handful more even conceivably amenable to future dynamical confirmation. As a result, the ability to draw detailed conclusions about the diversity of exoplanet systems from Kepler detections relies critically on understanding the probability that any individual candidate might be a false positive. We show that a typical a priori false positive probability for a well-vetted Kepler candidate is only about 5-10%, enabling confidence in demographic studies that treat candidates as true planets. We also present a detailed procedure that can be used to securely and efficiently validate any individual transit candidate using detailed information of the

  20. The Importance of Demographic Data in Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elmegreen, Debra M.

    2014-01-01

    The most effective astronomical workforce will be one that comprises a diverse and inclusive community. The “New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics” Decadal Survey, with input from its Infrastructure Study Group on Demographics, provided an overview of recent demographic trends. Demographics in astronomy have undergone significant changes over the past two generations in several, but not all, categories. Maintaining records of demographics regarding age, gender, and minority status, as well as trends by discipline and career choices, is vital in planning for the future training and employment of astronomers.

  1. Evidence for the Postconquest Demographic Collapse of the Americas in Historical CO2 Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannstein, H.; Faust, F. X.

    2008-12-01

    In this talk we promote the hypothesis that the massive demographic collapse of the native populations of the Americas triggered by the European colonization brought about the abandonment of large expanses of agricultural fields soon recovered by forests, which in due turn fixed atmospheric CO2 in significant quantities. This hypothesis is supported by measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels in ice cores from Law Dome, Antarctica. Changing the focus from paleoclimate to global population dynamics and using the same causal chain, the measured drop in historic atmospheric CO2 levels can also be looked upon as further, strong evidence for the postconquest demographic collapse of the Americas.

  2. Virial Expansion Bounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tate, Stephen James

    2013-10-01

    In the 1960s, the technique of using cluster expansion bounds in order to achieve bounds on the virial expansion was developed by Lebowitz and Penrose (J. Math. Phys. 5:841, 1964) and Ruelle (Statistical Mechanics: Rigorous Results. Benjamin, Elmsford, 1969). This technique is generalised to more recent cluster expansion bounds by Poghosyan and Ueltschi (J. Math. Phys. 50:053509, 2009), which are related to the work of Procacci (J. Stat. Phys. 129:171, 2007) and the tree-graph identity, detailed by Brydges (Phénomènes Critiques, Systèmes Aléatoires, Théories de Jauge. Les Houches 1984, pp. 129-183, 1986). The bounds achieved by Lebowitz and Penrose can also be sharpened by doing the actual optimisation and achieving expressions in terms of the Lambert W-function. The different bound from the cluster expansion shows some improvements for bounds on the convergence of the virial expansion in the case of positive potentials, which are allowed to have a hard core.

  3. The State Economic, Demographic & Fiscal Handbook 1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baer, David; Cohen, Lee

    This handbook is an easy-to-use reference book for policymakers, public officials, and policy analysts, as well as anyone else who may need up-to-date information about state economic, demographic, and fiscal data. The book includes data on demographics, poverty rates, per capita state personal income, state and local tax rates, and state and…

  4. The Unaddressed Costs of Changing Student Demographics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaplan, Leslie S.; Owings, William A.

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the impact of changing student demographics on financing education and on our national wellbeing. We begin by examining the research of current student demographics and their relationship to learning and education costs. We then calculate a 1% cost factor from the average per-pupil expenditure based on the 2011 "Digest…

  5. Lifelong Learning and Demographics: A Japanese Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ogawa, Seiko

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores the social dimension of lifelong learning from the perspective of demographics, with particular focus on the issue of the birth of fewer children, which has become one of the most important current social issues in Japanese society. When considering the relationship between lifelong learning and demographics, the issues arising…

  6. [The Brazilian population: demographic and spatial dynamics].

    PubMed

    Bret, B; Le Gauffey, Y; Thery, H; Waniez, P

    1984-01-01

    Recent demographic trends in Brazil are reviewed. A continuing decline in fertility is noted as the demographic transition proceeds. The differences by region and between rural and urban areas are considered. Attention is also paid to differences in spatial distribution and to internal migration.

  7. [Contemplations on demographic theories (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Maier, W

    1979-03-01

    All demographic theories make statements on the relationship between population developments and economic developments. The demographic teachings of Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, and Karl Marx are embedded in their specific economic theories and contain ideologic statements which are not detrimental to demographic and economic sciences but a stimulus for research. The demographic theories which developed with the onset of the industrial revolution of the 19th century are all sceptical of too high populations independent of their analysis of the market mechanisms or of capitalistic production relationships. This has remained unchanged to date. The statistical evaluation of the 1980's underlines this problem. The reproductive behaviour and demographic theory of a highly industrialized economy can not be based on experience alone but must also be based on rational findings. The rejection of the prestige value of children on the reproductive behaviour which is independent of circumstances must be recognized.

  8. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

    PubMed Central

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

  9. Demographic training and research in Africa.

    PubMed

    Igun, A A

    1976-09-01

    The state of demographic data in Africa is reviewed in this paper along with constraints affecting the collection of adequate demographic information. An evaluation is made of the present situation and efforts to rectify the shortage of demographic personnel in the UN sponsored subregional demographic institutes, including an outline of the course program. The effort and progress being made in similar training programs at the University of Ife, Nigeria, is also examined. Obstacles to the collection of demographic data are classified as physical difficulties; administrative and official problems and difficulties; technical and staff problems; and sociocultural problems. A consensus has been reached on the inadequacy of past efforts in data collection and analysis in Africa. Special attention must be paid to the training of demographers. A comparison is made between demographers in developed countries who have their data collected for them and the African demographer who must be his own statistician, sociologist, anthropologist, and geographer to understand the biases his data are subject to. Training for African demographers should emphasize problems in data collection, data manipulation, and innovation in solving methodological problems. Type of personnel needed include teachers of demography, high level professionals, middle level professionals and low level workers. The training programs given by the Regional Institutes for Population Studies are a postgraduate diploma course, lasting 1 year and a Master's degree course for those who obtain the diploma. Subjects covered include substantive demography; technical demography; family planning, its development and evaluation; auxiliary subjects including mathematics, statistics, sampling and research methods; and complementary subjects e.g., economics, sociology, national planning, physiology of reproduction, and genetics. Short term research projects and a major research report are an integral part of the programs

  10. AUTO-EXPANSIVE FLOW

    EPA Science Inventory

    Physics suggests that the interplay of momentum, continuity, and geometry in outward radial flow must produce density and concomitant pressure reductions. In other words, this flow is intrinsically auto-expansive. It has been proposed that this process is the key to understanding...

  11. Static gas expansion cooler

    DOEpatents

    Guzek, J.C.; Lujan, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    Disclosed is a cooler for television cameras and other temperature sensitive equipment. The cooler uses compressed gas ehich is accelerated to a high velocity by passing it through flow passageways having nozzle portions which expand the gas. This acceleration and expansion causes the gas to undergo a decrease in temperature thereby cooling the cooler body and adjacent temperature sensitive equipment.

  12. Expansion of Pannes

    EPA Science Inventory

    For the Long Island, New Jersey, and southern New England region, one facet of marsh drowning as a result of accelerated sea level rise is the expansion of salt marsh ponds and pannes. Over the past century, marsh ponds and pannes have formed and expanded in areas of poor drainag...

  13. A Special Trinomial Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ayoub, Ayoub B.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author takes up the special trinomial (1 + x + x[squared])[superscript n] and shows that the coefficients of its expansion are entries of a Pascal-like triangle. He also shows how to calculate these entries recursively and explicitly. This article could be used in the classroom for enrichment. (Contains 1 table.)

  14. Urban Expansion Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Under an Egyptian government contract, PADCO studies urban growth in the Nile Area. They were assisted by LANDSAT survey maps and measurements provided by TAC. TAC had classified the raw LANDSAT data and processed it into various categories to detail urban expansion. PADCO crews spot checked the results, and correlations were established.

  15. Human genetic data reveal contrasting demographic patterns between sedentary and nomadic populations that predate the emergence of farming.

    PubMed

    Aimé, Carla; Laval, Guillaume; Patin, Etienne; Verdu, Paul; Ségurel, Laure; Chaix, Raphaëlle; Hegay, Tatyana; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2013-12-01

    Demographic changes are known to leave footprints on genetic polymorphism. Together with the increased availability of large polymorphism data sets, coalescent-based methods allow inferring the past demography of populations from their present-day patterns of genetic diversity. Here, we analyzed both nuclear (20 noncoding regions) and mitochondrial (HVS-I) resequencing data to infer the demographic history of 66 African and Eurasian human populations presenting contrasting lifestyles (nomadic hunter-gatherers, nomadic herders, and sedentary farmers). This allowed us to investigate the relationship between lifestyle and demography and to address the long-standing debate about the chronology of demographic expansions and the Neolithic transition. In Africa, we inferred expansion events for farmers, but constant population sizes or contraction events for hunter-gatherers. In Eurasia, we inferred higher expansion rates for farmers than herders with HVS-I data, except in Central Asia and Korea. Although isolation and admixture processes could have impacted our demographic inferences, these processes alone seem unlikely to explain the contrasted demographic histories inferred in populations with different lifestyles. The small expansion rates or constant population sizes inferred for herders and hunter-gatherers may thus result from constraints linked to nomadism. However, autosomal data revealed contraction events for two sedentary populations in Eurasia, which may be caused by founder effects. Finally, the inferred expansions likely predated the emergence of agriculture and herding. This suggests that human populations could have started to expand in Paleolithic times, and that strong Paleolithic expansions in some populations may have ultimately favored their shift toward agriculture during the Neolithic.

  16. The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E.M.S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

    2014-01-01

    Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low

  17. The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates

    PubMed Central

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Gravel, Dominique; Holt, Robert D.; Schurr, Frank M.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H.; Dullinger, Stefan; Edwards, Thomas C.; Hickler, Thomas; Higgins, Steven I.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Pagel, Jörn; Normand, Signe

    2014-01-01

    Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species’ range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low

  18. Genetic footprints reveal geographic patterns of expansion in Fennoscandian red foxes.

    PubMed

    Norén, Karin; Statham, Mark J; Ågren, Erik O; Isomursu, Marja; Flagstad, Øystein; Eide, Nina E; Berg, Thomas Bjørneboe G; Bech-Sanderhoff, Lene; Sacks, Benjamin N

    2015-09-01

    Population expansions of boreal species are among the most substantial ecological consequences of climate change, potentially transforming both structure and processes of northern ecosystems. Despite their importance, little is known about expansion dynamics of boreal species. Red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are forecasted to become a keystone species in northern Europe, a process stemming from population expansions that began in the 19th century. To identify the relative roles of geographic and demographic factors and the sources of northern European red fox population expansion, we genotyped 21 microsatellite loci in modern and historical (1835-1941) Fennoscandian red foxes. Using Bayesian clustering and Bayesian inference of migration rates, we identified high connectivity and asymmetric migration rates across the region, consistent with source-sink dynamics, whereby more recently colonized sampling regions received immigrants from multiple sources. There were no clear clines in allele frequency or genetic diversity as would be expected from a unidirectional range expansion from south to north. Instead, migration inferences, demographic models and comparison to historical red fox genotypes suggested that the population expansion of the red fox is a consequence of dispersal from multiple sources, as well as in situ demographic growth. Together, these findings provide a rare glimpse into the anatomy of a boreal range expansion and enable informed predictions about future changes in boreal communities.

  19. The demographic work of Sir William Wilde.

    PubMed

    Froggatt, P

    2016-05-01

    This paper argues that Sir William Wilde was indeed a pioneering demographer. It also describes the unveiling of the plaque commemorating Sir William Wilde at his home, 1, Merrion Square, Dublin on the 28 October 1971.

  20. Unemployment among Black Youths, Demographics, and Crime.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calvin, Allen D.

    1981-01-01

    Erroneous conclusions relating to the interrelationship among unemployment rates, demographics, and crime rates of Black youths are discussed. A reexamination of the data shows that crime by Black youths bears a close relationship with prevailing economic conditions. (Author/RC)

  1. Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates.

    PubMed

    Severson, John P; Hagen, Christian A; Tack, Jason D; Maestas, Jeremy D; Naugle, David E; Forbes, James T; Reese, Kerry P

    2017-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) obligate wildlife species such as the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) face numerous threats including altered ecosystem processes that have led to conifer expansion into shrub-steppe. Conifer removal is accelerating despite a lack of empirical evidence on grouse population response. Using a before-after-control-impact design at the landscape scale, we evaluated effects of conifer removal on two important demographic parameters, annual survival of females and nest survival, by monitoring 219 female sage-grouse and 225 nests in the northern Great Basin from 2010 to 2014. Estimates from the best treatment models showed positive trends in the treatment area relative to the control area resulting in an increase of 6.6% annual female survival and 18.8% nest survival relative to the control area by 2014. Using stochastic simulations of our estimates and published demographics, we estimated a 25% increase in the population growth rate in the treatment area relative to the control area. This is the first study to link sage-grouse demographics with conifer removal and supports recommendations to actively manage conifer expansion for sage-grouse conservation. Sage-grouse have become a primary catalyst for conservation funding to address conifer expansion in the West, and these findings have important implications for other ecosystem services being generated on the wings of species conservation.

  2. Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

    PubMed Central

    Hagen, Christian A.; Tack, Jason D.; Maestas, Jeremy D.; Naugle, David E.; Forbes, James T.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2017-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) obligate wildlife species such as the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) face numerous threats including altered ecosystem processes that have led to conifer expansion into shrub-steppe. Conifer removal is accelerating despite a lack of empirical evidence on grouse population response. Using a before-after-control-impact design at the landscape scale, we evaluated effects of conifer removal on two important demographic parameters, annual survival of females and nest survival, by monitoring 219 female sage-grouse and 225 nests in the northern Great Basin from 2010 to 2014. Estimates from the best treatment models showed positive trends in the treatment area relative to the control area resulting in an increase of 6.6% annual female survival and 18.8% nest survival relative to the control area by 2014. Using stochastic simulations of our estimates and published demographics, we estimated a 25% increase in the population growth rate in the treatment area relative to the control area. This is the first study to link sage-grouse demographics with conifer removal and supports recommendations to actively manage conifer expansion for sage-grouse conservation. Sage-grouse have become a primary catalyst for conservation funding to address conifer expansion in the West, and these findings have important implications for other ecosystem services being generated on the wings of species conservation. PMID:28333995

  3. Bigravity from gradient expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Yamashita, Yasuho; Tanaka, Takahiro

    2016-05-04

    We discuss how the ghost-free bigravity coupled with a single scalar field can be derived from a braneworld setup. We consider DGP two-brane model without radion stabilization. The bulk configuration is solved for given boundary metrics, and it is substituted back into the action to obtain the effective four-dimensional action. In order to obtain the ghost-free bigravity, we consider the gradient expansion in which the brane separation is supposed to be sufficiently small so that two boundary metrics are almost identical. The obtained effective theory is shown to be ghost free as expected, however, the interaction between two gravitons takes the Fierz-Pauli form at the leading order of the gradient expansion, even though we do not use the approximation of linear perturbation. We also find that the radion remains as a scalar field in the four-dimensional effective theory, but its coupling to the metrics is non-trivial.

  4. Range expansion of mutualists

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muller, Melanie J. I.; Korolev, Kirill S.; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    The expansion of a species into new territory is often strongly influenced by the presence of other species. This effect is particularly striking for the case of mutualistic species that enhance each other's proliferation. Examples range from major events in evolutionary history, such as the spread and diversification of flowering plants due to their mutualism with pollen-dispersing insects, to modern examples like the surface colonisation of multi-species microbial biofilms. Here, we investigate the spread of cross-feeding strains of the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae on an agar surface as a model system for expanding mutualists. Depending on the degree of mutualism, the two strains form distinctive spatial patterns during their range expansion. This change in spatial patterns can be understood as a phase transition within a stepping stone model generalized to two mutualistic species.

  5. Thermal expansion of glassy polymers.

    PubMed

    Davy, K W; Braden, M

    1992-01-01

    The thermal expansion of a number of glassy polymers of interest in dentistry has been studied using a quartz dilatometer. In some cases, the expansion was linear and therefore the coefficient of thermal expansion readily determined. Other polymers exhibited non-linear behaviour and values appropriate to different temperature ranges are quoted. The linear coefficient of thermal expansion was, to a first approximation, a function of both the molar volume and van der Waal's volume of the repeating unit.

  6. Expansion: A Plan for Success.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callahan, A.P.

    This report provides selling brokers' guidelines for the successful expansion of their operations outlining a basic method of preparing an expansion plan. Topic headings are: The Pitfalls of Expansion (The Language of Business, Timely Financial Reporting, Regulatory Agencies of Government, Preoccupation with the Facade of Business, A Business Is a…

  7. MtDNA analysis of global populations support that major population expansions began before Neolithic Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Yan, Shi; Qin, Zhen-Dong; Jin, Li

    2012-10-01

    Agriculture resulted in extensive population growths and human activities. However, whether major human expansions started after Neolithic Time still remained controversial. With the benefit of 1000 Genome Project, we were able to analyze a total of 910 samples from 11 populations in Africa, Europe and Americas. From these random samples, we identified the expansion lineages and reconstructed the historical demographic variations. In all the three continents, we found that most major lineage expansions (11 out of 15 star lineages in Africa, all autochthonous lineages in Europe and America) coalesced before the first appearance of agriculture. Furthermore, major population expansions were estimated after Last Glacial Maximum but before Neolithic Time, also corresponding to the result of major lineage expansions. Considering results in current and previous study, global mtDNA evidence showed that rising temperature after Last Glacial Maximum offered amiable environments and might be the most important factor for prehistorical human expansions.

  8. Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore.

    PubMed

    Mikle, Nate; Graves, Tabitha A; Kovach, Ryan; Kendall, Katherine C; Macleod, Amy C

    2016-09-28

    Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

  9. Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mikle, Nathaniel; Graves, Tabitha A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

    2016-01-01

    Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

  10. Load regulating expansion fixture

    DOEpatents

    Wagner, Lawrence M.; Strum, Michael J.

    1998-01-01

    A free standing self contained device for bonding ultra thin metallic films, such as 0.001 inch beryllium foils. The device will regulate to a predetermined load for solid state bonding when heated to a bonding temperature. The device includes a load regulating feature, whereby the expansion stresses generated for bonding are regulated and self adjusting. The load regulator comprises a pair of friction isolators with a plurality of annealed copper members located therebetween. The device, with the load regulator, will adjust to and maintain a stress level needed to successfully and economically complete a leak tight bond without damaging thin foils or other delicate components.

  11. Load regulating expansion fixture

    DOEpatents

    Wagner, L.M.; Strum, M.J.

    1998-12-15

    A free standing self contained device for bonding ultra thin metallic films, such as 0.001 inch beryllium foils is disclosed. The device will regulate to a predetermined load for solid state bonding when heated to a bonding temperature. The device includes a load regulating feature, whereby the expansion stresses generated for bonding are regulated and self adjusting. The load regulator comprises a pair of friction isolators with a plurality of annealed copper members located therebetween. The device, with the load regulator, will adjust to and maintain a stress level needed to successfully and economically complete a leak tight bond without damaging thin foils or other delicate components. 1 fig.

  12. [Thoughts on demographic optimization in contemporary Poland].

    PubMed

    Oledzki, M

    1980-01-01

    This article presents the viewpoint of the Polish school of social policy of the Institute of Social Economy concerning the problem of optimization of demographic structures and processes in contemporary Poland. This school was created under the leadership of the outstanding sociologist Ludwik Krzywicki (1859-1941). The reasoning concerns, first of all, the scientific premises of the choice of criteria of demographic optimization examined and then there is a critical assessment of modern simplified approaches to the definition of optimum population. It also shows actual possibilities of demographic optimization and the complexity of analytical categories of socioeconomic processes which determine the development of the population in specific time and space. In conclusion, the theory of demographic optimization is regarded as a task too ambitious and perhaps even utopian in view of the assumptions needed for its satisfactory realization. This conclusion confirms the thesis contained in the handbook of demography by J.Z. Holzer published in 1970. The author considers, however, that the search for a theory of demographic optimization is still a task which mobilizes social sciences to an integration centered on demography and social policy. (author's)

  13. Identifying image preferences based on demographic attributes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedorovskaya, Elena A.; Lawrence, Daniel R.

    2014-02-01

    The intent of this study is to determine what sorts of images are considered more interesting by which demographic groups. Specifically, we attempt to identify images whose interestingness ratings are influenced by the demographic attribute of the viewer's gender. To that end, we use the data from an experiment where 18 participants (9 women and 9 men) rated several hundred images based on "visual interest" or preferences in viewing images. The images were selected to represent the consumer "photo-space" - typical categories of subject matter found in consumer photo collections. They were annotated using perceptual and semantic descriptors. In analyzing the image interestingness ratings, we apply a multivariate procedure known as forced classification, a feature of dual scaling, a discrete analogue of principal components analysis (similar to correspondence analysis). This particular analysis of ratings (i.e., ordered-choice or Likert) data enables the investigator to emphasize the effect of a specific item or collection of items. We focus on the influence of the demographic item of gender on the analysis, so that the solutions are essentially confined to subspaces spanned by the emphasized item. Using this technique, we can know definitively which images' ratings have been influenced by the demographic item of choice. Subsequently, images can be evaluated and linked, on one hand, to their perceptual and semantic descriptors, and, on the other hand, to the preferences associated with viewers' demographic attributes.

  14. Expansible quantum secret sharing network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Ying; Xu, Sheng-Wei; Chen, Xiu-Bo; Niu, Xin-Xin; Yang, Yi-Xian

    2013-08-01

    In the practical applications, member expansion is a usual demand during the development of a secret sharing network. However, there are few consideration and discussion on network expansibility in the existing quantum secret sharing schemes. We propose an expansible quantum secret sharing scheme with relatively simple and economical quantum resources and show how to split and reconstruct the quantum secret among an expansible user group in our scheme. Its trait, no requirement of any agent's assistant during the process of member expansion, can help to prevent potential menaces of insider cheating. We also give a discussion on the security of this scheme from three aspects.

  15. Demographic and affective covariates of pain.

    PubMed

    Garron, D C; Leavitt, F

    1979-11-01

    Relationships of four demographic variables and five affective variables to eight attributes of low back pain were investigated in 251 patients by stepwise, multivariate analysis. The demographic variables are age, sex, race, and education. The affective variables are state anxiety, trait anxiety anxiety, hostility, and depression. Seven of the pain variables are from the factorially derived Low Back Pain Questionnaire. The eighth pain variable is a self-estimate of intensity. Relationships among demographic and pain variables are small and unsystematic. Hostility has a small, systematically inverse relation to pain variables, supporting theories relating low back pain to inhibition of anger. Anxiety has a small positive relationship, and depression has no relationship to pain variables. In general, the small relationships indicate that the Low Back Pain Questionnaire provides descriptions of pain that are not confounded by social characteristics or current emotional states of patients.

  16. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

    2012-07-14

    Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.

  17. Reconstructing the demographic history of orang-utans using Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    PubMed

    Nater, Alexander; Greminger, Maja P; Arora, Natasha; van Schaik, Carel P; Goossens, Benoit; Singleton, Ian; Verschoor, Ernst J; Warren, Kristin S; Krützen, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Investigating how different evolutionary forces have shaped patterns of DNA variation within and among species requires detailed knowledge of their demographic history. Orang-utans, whose distribution is currently restricted to the South-East Asian islands of Borneo (Pongo pygmaeus) and Sumatra (Pongo abelii), have likely experienced a complex demographic history, influenced by recurrent changes in climate and sea levels, volcanic activities and anthropogenic pressures. Using the most extensive sample set of wild orang-utans to date, we employed an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to test the fit of 12 different demographic scenarios to the observed patterns of variation in autosomal, X-chromosomal, mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal markers. In the best-fitting model, Sumatran orang-utans exhibit a deep split of populations north and south of Lake Toba, probably caused by multiple eruptions of the Toba volcano. In addition, we found signals for a strong decline in all Sumatran populations ~24 ka, probably associated with hunting by human colonizers. In contrast, Bornean orang-utans experienced a severe bottleneck ~135 ka, followed by a population expansion and substructuring starting ~82 ka, which we link to an expansion from a glacial refugium. We showed that orang-utans went through drastic changes in population size and connectedness, caused by recurrent contraction and expansion of rainforest habitat during Pleistocene glaciations and probably hunting by early humans. Our findings emphasize the fact that important aspects of the evolutionary past of species with complex demographic histories might remain obscured when applying overly simplified models.

  18. Demographic Challenges in America’s Future,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    of women are em- ployed, and if the opportunity cost of children is a sufficiently impor- tant factor in couples’ decisions, fertility rates may even...AD-A130 637 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES IN AMERICA’S FTTUREIU) RAND CORP / SANTA MONICA CA W ’P BUTZ ET AL. MAY 02 RAND/R 2911 RC seI-AD-E?5O 765...UNCLASSIFIED FIG 5/1 N OI liiie M~lD 1.0 4 *2.0 1111.25 lii I.4 . Ifln IIII~ - MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART k&TONAL 9uREAU OF STAN0AROS -96 - A Demographic

  19. The demographic transition: model and reality.

    PubMed

    Alexandersson, G

    1981-01-01

    Observed exponential population growth curves are short-term parts of a logistic or S-curve in demography or a product-cycle curve in technology. All human populations have the ability to adjust their rates of growth, a fact recognized by the demographic transition model. The acceleration of world population growth that began after 1650 and became conspicuous after 1850 was largely confined to industrialized countries of European culture until after World War II, when the S-curve passed the inflection point. Many signs indicate that the decline in growth rates may become striking in the 1980s or 1990s. The demographic transition agrees with the logistic curve, and since the ultimate carrying capacity of the Earth is limited, represents an intelligent adaptation. The industrial countries with the longest statistical records, such as Sweden and Finland, evidence early efforts to control fertility. The demographic transition in Sweden lasted from 1815 to 1930 and occurred without government interference. A question for postindustrial western society is whether birth rates will be adjusted to the rising death rates expected as the population ages. Birth and death rates in most formulations of the demographic transition model are typical of Western Europe at the start of the transition process but are much too low for most countries of the world. Japan's demographic transition and that of several other Asian countries have occurred much more rapidly than those of Western Europe and have demonstrated not only that the demographic transition model was applicable but that the time span could be shortened by a factor of about 10 when government policy was substituted for spontaneous development. The Indian experience however shows that the shortening of the transition cannot be imposed from above. The demographic transition is well on its way in most of Asia and Latin America, but Africa and the Muslim countries of Asia have so far done little to restrain their high

  20. Optical imaging. Expansion microscopy.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fei; Tillberg, Paul W; Boyden, Edward S

    2015-01-30

    In optical microscopy, fine structural details are resolved by using refraction to magnify images of a specimen. We discovered that by synthesizing a swellable polymer network within a specimen, it can be physically expanded, resulting in physical magnification. By covalently anchoring specific labels located within the specimen directly to the polymer network, labels spaced closer than the optical diffraction limit can be isotropically separated and optically resolved, a process we call expansion microscopy (ExM). Thus, this process can be used to perform scalable superresolution microscopy with diffraction-limited microscopes. We demonstrate ExM with apparent ~70-nanometer lateral resolution in both cultured cells and brain tissue, performing three-color superresolution imaging of ~10(7) cubic micrometers of the mouse hippocampus with a conventional confocal microscope.

  1. Cryogenic expansion machine

    DOEpatents

    Pallaver, Carl B.; Morgan, Michael W.

    1978-01-01

    A cryogenic expansion engine includes intake and exhaust poppet valves each controlled by a cam having adjustable dwell, the valve seats for the valves being threaded inserts in the valve block. Each cam includes a cam base and a ring-shaped cam insert disposed at an exterior corner of the cam base, the cam base and cam insert being generally circular but including an enlarged cam dwell, the circumferential configuration of the cam base and cam dwell being identical, the cam insert being rotatable with respect to the cam base. GI CONTRACTUAL ORIGIN OF THE INVENTION The invention described herein was made in the course of, or under, a contract with the UNITED STATES ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION.

  2. The Expansion of Adult Education and Training in Europe: Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuijnman, Albert C.

    1992-01-01

    Describes factors contributing to 1980s expansion of adult vocational education (AE) and training in Europe, reviewing demographic, economic, political, and social factors. Discusses ramifications of emerging decentralization in educational decision making. Examines potential conflict between emphasis on economic and labor market objectives of AE…

  3. Demographic Group Differences in Adolescents' Time Attitudes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andretta, James R.; Worrell, Frank C.; Mello, Zena R.; Dixson, Dante D.; Baik, Sharon H.

    2013-01-01

    In the present study, we examined demographic differences in time attitudes in a sample of 293 adolescents. Time attitudes were measured using the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (Mello & Worrell, 2007; Worrell, Mello, & Buhl, 2011), which assesses positive and negative attitudes toward the past, the present, and the future. Generally, African…

  4. Understanding China's Demographic Dividends and Labor Issue

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peng, Xizhe

    2013-01-01

    One of the major concerns about the one-child policy is its negative impact on the current and future labor force in China. People have talked about the Lewis Turning Point and the end of demographic dividends. Some of these arguments, however, can be misleading. The working-age population (ages 15 to 59) can be treated as the potential labor…

  5. Life Potential as a Basic Demographic Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goerlich, Francisco J.; Soler, Angel

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes an indicator that integrates life expectancy with the demographic structure of the population for a given society. By doing this, we have a simple indicator of mortality and aging combined, which could be very useful for developed societies. As is widely known, life expectancy at birth is independent of the demographic…

  6. Demographic Trends Affecting the Future Labor Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taeuber, Karl E.

    This report reviews recent population and manpower projections and examines how they take into account certain unexpected shifts in demographic, social, and economic behavior. It also assesses how well the particular circumstances, trends, and problems of the nation's major minority groups have been brought into the purview of the projection…

  7. 5 CFR 841.404 - Demographic factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Demographic factors. 841.404 Section 841... factors. (a) The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) will consider the factors listed below in determining normal cost percentages. To the extent data are available for the factor by specific category...

  8. The Demographics of Corporal Punishment in Texas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Stephanie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation examined the student discipline policies of 1,025 Texas school districts, as well as data from the Texas Education Agency's Academic Excellence Indicator System in order to identify demographic patterns regarding corporal punishment policies in Texas schools. The study also studied the relationship between a district's corporal…

  9. Complexity and demographic stability in population models.

    PubMed

    Demetrius, Lloyd; Gundlach, Volker Matthias; Ochs, Gunter

    2004-05-01

    This article is concerned with relating the stability of a population, as defined by the rate of decay of fluctuations induced by demographic stochasticity, with its heterogeneity in age-specific birth and death rates. We invoke the theory of large deviations to establish a fluctuation theorem: The demographic stability of a population is positively correlated with evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in the population. This theorem is exploited to predict certain correlations between ecological constraints and evolutionary trends in demographic stability, namely, (i) bounded growth constraints--a uni-directional increase in stability, (ii) unbounded growth constraints (large population size)--a uni-directional decrease in stability, (iii) unbounded growth constraints (small population size)--random, non-directional change in stability. These principles relating ecological constraints with trends in demographic stability are shown to be far reaching generalizations of the tenets derived from classical studies of stability in an evolutionary context. These results thus provide a new conceptual framework for explaining patterns of variation in population numbers observed in natural populations.

  10. State Differences: The Key to Demographics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgkinson, Harold

    1999-01-01

    This companion piece to a 1997 article examines United States demographic trends, such as diversity by age, "race" and U.S. Census racial classifications, wealth, transiency, suburbanization and sprawl, and immigration, focusing on differences among states and metro regions. Nothing, including achievement scores, social services, and…

  11. A Model for External Demographic Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Barbara Ann

    A data-collection model is presented for the gathering of timely information on population demographic characteristics, as well as economic, educational, environmental, and social trends. First, the paper discusses the importance of anticipating internal and external changes and establishing priorities for resource allocation in the design of a…

  12. Demographic Factors Related to Enrollment Projections. Draft.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pitruzzello, Philip

    School districts must analyze demographic data carefully if they hope to deal effectively with changing enrollment patterns. Sources of relevant data include local planning boards, utility companies, government records of vital statistics, carefully conducted school censuses, and municipal records of housing construction and property transfers.…

  13. Some Demographic Correlates of Changing Newspaper Circulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eberhard, Wallace B.

    There are varied opinions on the relationship between the circulation penetration of the American daily newspapers and certain demographic indicators. Previous studies have treated the growth of circulation figures by utilizing gross national data and have indicated the role newspaper circulation plays in defining the limits of major urban…

  14. Psychological and Demographic Correlates of Career Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reitzle, Matthias; Korner, Astrid; Vondracek, Fred W.

    2009-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing diversity of career patterns, resulting from the relative decline of stable employment. In the present study of 1368 employed and self-employed German adults career pattern diversity was assessed using nine pictograms. The goal was to identify psychological and demographic correlates of these patterns and to…

  15. Demographic and Lifestyle Variables Associated with Obesity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Worthy, Sheri L.; Lokken, Kristine; Pilcher, Kenneth; Boeka, Abbe

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Overweight and obesity rates are associated with chronic diseases and higher rates of disability and continue to rise in the United States and worldwide. The purpose of this study was to build on past research and further investigate demographic and lifestyle variables associated with increased body mass index (BMI: kg/m[squared]).…

  16. Demographic history and linkage disequilibrium in human populations.

    PubMed

    Laan, M; Pääbo, S

    1997-12-01

    In the human genome, linkage disequilibrium (LD)--the non-random association of alleles at chromosomal loci--has been studied mainly in regions surrounding disease genes on affected chromosomes. Consequently, little information is available on the distribution of LD across anonymous genomic regions in the general population. However, demographic history is expected to influence the extent of overall LD across the genome, so a population that has been of constant size will display higher levels of LD than a population that has expanded. In support of this, the extent of LD between anonymous loci on chromosome 4 in chimpanzees (as a model of a population of constant size) has been compared to that in Finns (as a model of an expanded population; refs 8,9) and found to exhibit more LD than in the latter population. In Europe, studies of mitochondrial (mt) DNA sequences have suggested that most populations have experienced expansion, whereas the Saami in northern Fenno-Scandinavia have been of constant size (Table 1). Thus, in northern Europe, populations with radically different demographic histories live in close geographic proximity to each other. We studied the allelic associations between anonymous microsatellite loci on the X chromosome in the Saami and neighbouring populations and found dramatically higher levels of LD in the Saami than in other populations in the region. This indicates that whereas recently expanded populations, such as the Finns, are well suited to map single disease genes affected by recent mutations, populations that have been of constant size, such as the Saami, may be much better suited to map genes for complex traits that are caused by older mutations.

  17. Shrub encroachment control by browsing: Targeting the right demographic process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Silveira Pontes, Laíse; Magda, Danièle; Jarry, Marc; Gleizes, Benoît; Agreil, Cyril

    2012-11-01

    Exploring key demographic parameters for establishment and growth of shrub populations enables us to identify the life stages or plant organs that browsers need to consume to effectively influence shrub population dynamics. However, there is a lack of concrete knowledge on how browsing can efficiently meet this goal. We therefore tested the impact of different levels of browsing intensity on a key demographic parameter (survival of juveniles) of a major colonizing shrub species (broom, Cytisus scoparius) in order to control population growth, and designed a browsing management strategy focused on this target stage. Three browsing intensities, representing pertinent management practices, were simulated on juveniles (2 years old) in a broom population. Juvenile broom plants were either left untouched (control treatment; n = 126) or had 50% or 90% of their total edible stem biomass removed for "light-intensity browsing" (n = 127) and "high-intensity browsing" (n = 77) treatments, respectively. Survival and fecundity data were collected over 6 years. Standard matrix modeling was used to analyze the impact of browsing on changes in population growth rate (λ), and the results were 6.34 (control), 2.26 (light browsing) and 0.85 (heavy browsing). Therefore, the natural expansion of broom populations may be slowed by light browsing or even reversed by heavy browsing (λ < 1). This multi-year survey confirms that focusing browsing on juveniles is an efficient strategy for controlling broom dominance. Shrub control strategies should therefore target early-growth-stage populations and repeat the browsing strategy at the same intensity over several years to achieve cumulative effects.

  18. Indicator Expansion with Analysis Pipeline

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-13

    2014 Carnegie Mellon University Indicator Expansion with Analysis Pipeline Dan Ruef 1/13/15 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Indicator Expansion with Analysis Pipeline 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...Mellon®, CERT® and FloCon® are registered marks of Carnegie Mellon University. DM-0002067 3 Definition “Indicator expansion is a process of using one or

  19. Burial Ground Expansion Hydrogeologic Characterization

    SciTech Connect

    Gaughan , T.F.

    1999-02-26

    Sirrine Environmental Consultants provided technical oversight of the installation of eighteen groundwater monitoring wells and six exploratory borings around the location of the Burial Ground Expansion.

  20. Relativistic Sommerfeld Low Temperature Expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lourenço, O.; Dutra, M.; Delfino, A.; Sá Martins, J. S.

    We derive a relativistic Sommerfeld expansion for thermodynamic quantities in many-body fermionic systems. The expansion is used to generate the equation of state of the Walecka model and its isotherms. We find that these results are in good agreement with numerical calculations, even when the expansion is truncated at its lowest order, in the low temperature regime, defined by T/xf ≪ 1. Although the interesting region near the liquid-gas phase transition is excluded by this criterion, the expansion may still find usefulness in the study of very cold nuclear matter systems, such as neutron stars.

  1. Lattice harmonics expansion revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kontrym-Sznajd, G.; Holas, A.

    2017-04-01

    The main subject of the work is to provide the most effective way of determining the expansion of some quantities into orthogonal polynomials, when these quantities are known only along some limited number of sampling directions. By comparing the commonly used Houston method with the method based on the orthogonality relation, some relationships, which define the applicability and correctness of these methods, are demonstrated. They are verified for various sets of sampling directions applicable for expanding quantities having the full symmetry of the Brillouin zone of cubic and non-cubic lattices. All results clearly show that the Houston method is always better than the orthogonality-relation one. For the cubic symmetry we present a few sets of special directions (SDs) showing how their construction and, next, a proper application depend on the choice of various sets of lattice harmonics. SDs are important mainly for experimentalists who want to reconstruct anisotropic quantities from their measurements, performed at a limited number of sampling directions.

  2. Singularity Expansion Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riggs, Lloyd Stephen

    In this work the transient currents induced on an arbitrary system of thin linear scatterers by an electromagnetic plane wave are solved by using an electric field integral equation (EFIE) formulation. The transient analysis is carried out using the singularity expansion method (SEM). The general analysis developed here is useful for assessing the vulnerability of military aircraft to a nuclear generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). It is also useful as a modal synthesis tool in the analysis and design of frequency selective surfaces (FSS). SEM parameters for a variety of thin cylindrical geometries have been computed. Specifically, SEM poles, modes, coupling coefficients, and transient currents are given for the two and three element planar array. Poles and modes for planar arrays with a larger number (as many as eight) of identical equally spaced elements are also considered. SEM pole-mode results are given for identical parallel elements with ends located at the vertices of a regular N-agon. Pole-mode patterns are found for symmetric (and slightly perturbed) single junction N-arm elements and for the five junction Jerusalem cross. The Jerusalem cross element has been used extensively in FSS.

  3. Local Adaptation Interacts with Expansion Load during Range Expansion: Maladaptation Reduces Expansion Load.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Sharp, Nathaniel P; Angert, Amy L; Conte, Gina L; Draghi, Jeremy A; Guillaume, Frédéric; Hargreaves, Anna L; Matthey-Doret, Remi; Whitlock, Michael C

    2017-04-01

    The biotic and abiotic factors that facilitate or hinder species range expansions are many and complex. We examine the impact of two genetic processes and their interaction on fitness at expanding range edges: local maladaptation resulting from the presence of an environmental gradient and expansion load resulting from increased genetic drift at the range edge. Results from spatially explicit simulations indicate that the presence of an environmental gradient during range expansion reduces expansion load; conversely, increasing expansion load allows only locally adapted populations to persist at the range edge. Increased maladaptation reduces the speed of range expansion, resulting in less genetic drift at the expanding front and more immigration from the range center, therefore reducing expansion load at the range edge. These results may have ramifications for species being forced to shift their ranges because of climate change or other anthropogenic changes. If rapidly changing climate leads to faster expansion as populations track their shifting climatic optima, populations may suffer increased expansion load beyond previous expectations.

  4. Length distributions of identity by descent reveal fine-scale demographic history.

    PubMed

    Palamara, Pier Francesco; Lencz, Todd; Darvasi, Ariel; Pe'er, Itsik

    2012-11-02

    Data-driven studies of identity by descent (IBD) were recently enabled by high-resolution genomic data from large cohorts and scalable algorithms for IBD detection. Yet, haplotype sharing currently represents an underutilized source of information for population-genetics research. We present analytical results on the relationship between haplotype sharing across purportedly unrelated individuals and a population's demographic history. We express the distribution of IBD sharing across pairs of individuals for segments of arbitrary length as a function of the population's demography, and we derive an inference procedure to reconstruct such demographic history. The accuracy of the proposed reconstruction methodology was extensively tested on simulated data. We applied this methodology to two densely typed data sets: 500 Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) individuals and 56 Kenyan Maasai (MKK) individuals (HapMap 3 data set). Reconstructing the demographic history of the AJ cohort, we recovered two subsequent population expansions, separated by a severe founder event, consistent with previous analysis of lower-throughput genetic data and historical accounts of AJ history. In the MKK cohort, high levels of cryptic relatedness were detected. The spectrum of IBD sharing is consistent with a demographic model in which several small-sized demes intermix through high migration rates and result in enrichment of shared long-range haplotypes. This scenario of historically structured demographies might explain the unexpected abundance of runs of homozygosity within several populations.

  5. Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

    PubMed Central

    Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene. PMID:26083467

  6. Genomic sequencing of Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites from Senegal reveals the demographic history of the population.

    PubMed

    Chang, Hsiao-Han; Park, Daniel J; Galinsky, Kevin J; Schaffner, Stephen F; Ndiaye, Daouda; Ndir, Omar; Mboup, Souleymane; Wiegand, Roger C; Volkman, Sarah K; Sabeti, Pardis C; Wirth, Dyann F; Neafsey, Daniel E; Hartl, Daniel L

    2012-11-01

    Malaria is a deadly disease that causes nearly one million deaths each year. To develop methods to control and eradicate malaria, it is important to understand the genetic basis of Plasmodium falciparum adaptations to antimalarial treatments and the human immune system while taking into account its demographic history. To study the demographic history and identify genes under selection more efficiently, we sequenced the complete genomes of 25 culture-adapted P. falciparum isolates from three sites in Senegal. We show that there is no significant population structure among these Senegal sampling sites. By fitting demographic models to the synonymous allele-frequency spectrum, we also estimated a major 60-fold population expansion of this parasite population ∼20,000-40,000 years ago. Using inferred demographic history as a null model for coalescent simulation, we identified candidate genes under selection, including genes identified before, such as pfcrt and PfAMA1, as well as new candidate genes. Interestingly, we also found selection against G/C to A/T changes that offsets the large mutational bias toward A/T, and two unusual patterns: similar synonymous and nonsynonymous allele-frequency spectra, and 18% of genes having a nonsynonymous-to-synonymous polymorphism ratio >1.

  7. Isotropic Negative Thermal Expansion Metamaterials.

    PubMed

    Wu, Lingling; Li, Bo; Zhou, Ji

    2016-07-13

    Negative thermal expansion materials are important and desirable in science and engineering applications. However, natural materials with isotropic negative thermal expansion are rare and usually unsatisfied in performance. Here, we propose a novel method to achieve two- and three-dimensional negative thermal expansion metamaterials via antichiral structures. The two-dimensional metamaterial is constructed with unit cells that combine bimaterial strips and antichiral structures, while the three-dimensional metamaterial is fabricated by a multimaterial 3D printing process. Both experimental and simulation results display isotropic negative thermal expansion property of the samples. The effective coefficient of negative thermal expansion of the proposed models is demonstrated to be dependent on the difference between the thermal expansion coefficient of the component materials, as well as on the circular node radius and the ligament length in the antichiral structures. The measured value of the linear negative thermal expansion coefficient of the three-dimensional sample is among the largest achieved in experiments to date. Our findings provide an easy and practical approach to obtaining materials with tunable negative thermal expansion on any scale.

  8. Population momentum across the demographic transition.

    PubMed

    Blue, Laura; Espenshade, Thomas J

    2011-01-01

    Population momentum is the main driver of global population growth today, and this makes an appreciation of momentum critical to understanding contemporary worldwide growth dynamics. This article traces population momentum along with two recently defined measures of momentum decomposed—stable and nonstable momentum—across the demographic transition. We use historical data and population projections from 16 countries to illustrate some previously ignored empirical regularities of the demographic transition in both the developed and the developing world. We also demonstrate the dynamic nature of stable and nonstable momentum, as changes in stable momentum lead to predictable changes in current and future nonstable momentum. These results suggest that momentum, which by definition is measured at a point in time, can also be considered as a process that unfolds over time.

  9. New Approaches to Demographic Data Collection

    PubMed Central

    Treiman, Donald J.; Lu, Yao; Qi, Yaqiang

    2013-01-01

    As population scientists have expanded the range of topics they study, increasingly considering the interrelationship between population phenomena and social, economic, and health conditions, they have expanded the kinds of data collected and have brought to bear new data collection techniques and procedures, often borrowed from other fields. These new approaches to demographic data collection are the concern of this essay. We consider three main topics: new developments in sampling procedures; new developments in fieldwork procedures; and new developments in the kind of information collected in demographic and social surveys. We conclude with some comments on data sharing in the social research community and a list of major Chinese surveys publicly available to researchers. Where possible we illustrate our points with Chinese examples. PMID:23844330

  10. The spatial components of demographic change.

    PubMed

    Campisi, D

    1986-04-01

    "In recent years, fertility in developed countries has drastically fallen towards replacement levels, so that further changes play an increasing role in determining the dynamics of population systems. In this paper, the dynamics of multiregional populations are analyzed when occasional perturbations resulting from changes in social and economic conditions exist. A perturbation theory for population models is introduced and the increasing effect of changes in demographic rates in determining the spatial component of the multiregional population growth is shown." The author outlines the critical situations in which perturbations produce drastic demographic changes. Data for Italy are used to show the theory's usefulness in analyzing both short- and long-term effects of changes in vital rates.

  11. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

    2010-10-12

    Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

  12. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions

    PubMed Central

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

    2010-01-01

    Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy–economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16–29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions. PMID:20937861

  13. Exoplanet Demographics with WFIRST-AFTA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaudi, B. S.; WFIRST-AFTA Science Definition Team

    2014-01-01

    Measurements of the demographics of exoplanets over a broad range of planet and host-star properties provide fundamental empirical constraints on theories of planet formation and evolution. Because of its unique sensitivity to low-mass, long-period, and free-floating planets, microlensing is an essential complement to our arsenal of planet detection methods. I outline the expected returns of a microlensing survey with WFIRST-AFTA. When combined with the results from complementary surveys such as Kepler, WFIRST-AFTA will yield a nearly complete picture of the demographics of planetary systems throughout the Galaxy, providing fundamental tests of planet formation theories, and informing our understanding of the frequency and potential habitability of low mass planets located in the habitable zones of their host stars.

  14. Evolving demographics of advanced dental education.

    PubMed

    Waldman, H Barry; Perlman, Steven P; Cinotti, Debra A

    2009-01-01

    The numbers of dental school graduates and students enrolled in post graduate programs have increased. Decreases are noted in the enrollment in Periodontics and Prosthodontics programs and a marked increase in the enrollment in Pediatric Dentistry programs. A review of these changes, by gender and race/ethnicity provides an overview of the future demographics of the profession. Some concerns regarding the future are considered.

  15. [Demographic characteristics of consumers in Indonesia?].

    PubMed

    Ananta, A

    1993-06-01

    "This paper presents a mosaic of business opportunities arising from the different demographic characteristics of the provinces in the western part of Indonesia. The author discusses the total number of population, density, and per capita income to [shed] some light on the volume of the market. He also presents the business impact of the [changes] in fertility, mortality, and the...life style of those aged 40-64." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  16. Lethality and Autonomous Systems: The Roboticist Demographic

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    humanoid (22%), and other (23%); 9) Media Influence: only 18% said that media had a strong or very strong influence on their attitude to robots ...and whether certain emotions would be appropriate in a military robot . The Wars question was worded as follows: To what extent do you think ...Lethality and Autonomous Systems: The Roboticist Demographic Lilia V. Moshkina and Ronald C. Arkin Mobile Robot Laboratory, College of

  17. Different Approaches to Monitoring Local Demographic Change,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    1.254 Franklin 1.150 1.131 Schoharie 1.253 1.141 Fulton 1.317 1.260 Schuyler 0.959 0.927 Genesee 1.028 0.990 Seneca 0.978 0.943 Greene 1.574 1.528...Goldsmith, Harold F., and Elizabeth L. Unger. 1973. Social Area Analysis: Procedures and Illustrative Application Based Upon the Mental Health Demographic

  18. Phylogeography and demographic history of the neotropical otter (Lontra longicaudis).

    PubMed

    Trinca, Cristine S; de Thoisy, Benoit; Rosas, Fernando C W; Waldemarin, Helen F; Koepfli, Klaus-Peter; Vianna, Juliana A; Eizirik, Eduardo

    2012-07-01

    The Neotropical otter (Lontra longicaudis) is a medium-sized semiaquatic carnivore with a broad distribution in the Neotropical region. Despite being apparently common in many areas, it is one of the least known otters, and genetic studies on this species are scarce. Here, we have investigated its genetic diversity, population structure, and demographic history across a large portion of its geographic range by analyzing 1471 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial DNA from 52 individuals. Our results indicate that L. longicaudis presents high levels of genetic diversity and a consistent phylogeographic pattern, suggesting the existence of at least 4 distinct evolutionary lineages in South America. The observed phylogeographic partitions are partially congruent with the subspecies classification previously proposed for this species. Coalescence-based analyses indicate that Neotropical otter mitochondrial DNA lineages have shared a rather recent common ancestor, approximately 0.5 Ma, and have subsequently diversified into the observed phylogroups. A consistent scenario of recent population expansion was identified in Eastern South America based on several complementary analyses of historical demography. The results obtained here provide novel insights on the evolutionary history of this largely unknown Neotropical mustelid and should be useful to design conservation and management policies on behalf of this species and its habitats.

  19. Geographical barriers and climate influence demographic history in narrowleaf cottonwoods

    PubMed Central

    Evans, L M; Allan, G J; DiFazio, S P; Slavov, G T; Wilder, J A; Floate, K D; Rood, S B; Whitham, T G

    2015-01-01

    Studies of genetic variation can clarify the role of geography and spatio-temporal variation of climate in shaping demography, particularly in temperate zone tree species with large latitudinal ranges. Here, we examined genetic variation in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia, a dominant riparian tree. Using multi-locus surveys of polymorphism in 363 individuals across the species' 1800 km latitudinal range, we found that, first, P. angustifolia has stronger neutral genetic structure than many forest trees (simple sequence repeat (SSR) FST=0.21), with major genetic groups corresponding to large apparent geographical barriers to gene flow. Second, using SSRs and putatively neutral sequenced loci, coalescent simulations indicated that populations diverged before the last glacial maximum (LGM), suggesting the presence of population structure before the LGM. Third, the LGM and subsequent warming appear to have had different influences on each of these distinct populations, with effective population size reduction in the southern extent of the range but major expansion in the north. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that climate and geographic barriers have jointly affected the demographic history of P. angustifolia, and point the importance of both factors as being instrumental in shaping genetic variation and structure in widespread forest trees. PMID:25585921

  20. Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends.

    PubMed

    Li, Guoqi; Zhao, Daxuan; Xu, Yi; Kuo, Shyh-Hao; Xu, Hai-Yan; Hu, Nan; Zhao, Guangshe; Monterola, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

  1. Rural Household Demographics, Livelihoods and the Environment

    PubMed Central

    de Sherbinin, Alex; VanWey, Leah; McSweeney, Kendra; Aggarwal, Rimjhim; Barbieri, Alisson; Henry, Sabina; Hunter, Lori M.; Twine, Wayne

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of micro-level studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land-cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided. PMID:19190718

  2. Intelligent system to study demographic evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, M. de Fatima; Ramos, Carlos; Henriques, Pedro R.

    1999-02-01

    With three centuries of existence, the study of population's behavior implies the manipulation of large amounts of incomplete and imprecise data with high dimensionality. By virtue of its multidisciplinary character, the work in demography involves at least historicists, statisticians and computer scientists/programmers. Moreover, successful demographic analysis requires qualified experts, who have succeeded in analysing data through many views and relate different sources of information, including their personal knowledge of the epoch or regions under study. In this paper, we present an intelligent system to study demographic evolution (ISSDE). This system has a module based on on-line analytical processing (OLAP), which permits conducting multiple analysis, combining many data dimensions. It has a deductive database system, which allows the execution of elaborated queries through the database. It has another module for date treatment (generalization and/or reduction); and, at last, a data mining module to discover nontrivial relations hidden within data. We discover the data treatment procedure with two phases: data generalization and data reduction. In data generalization, utilizing knowledge about concept hierarchies and relevance of data, aggregation of attribute values is performed. In the data reduction phase, rough set theory is applied to compute the minimal attribute set. We highlight the advantages of combining attribute value generalization with rough set theory, to find a subset of attributes that lets the mining process discover more useful patterns, by providing results from the application of the C5.0 algorithm in a demographic relational database.

  3. [The keys to the western demographic "miracle"].

    PubMed

    Burguiere, A

    1991-09-01

    Unlike most historical disciplines which had access to copious sources of data before refining their analytical methods, historical demography has almost simultaneously acquired data and developed rigorous analytical methods. French parish records did not attract detailed scrutiny until after World War II, but family reconstitution and other methods of exploitation were soon perfected. The continuing paradox of historical demography is that its statistical methods are rigorous but data remain sparse. Several dozen villages and a few cities have emerged from a vast obscurity but entire regions remain unexplored. Nonetheless, the study of preindustrial populations has progressed more in the past 20 years than has study of populations in the industrial era. Complex phenomena such as the fertility decline and incipient control of birth rates in late 18th century Europe have been studied or explained more adequately than has the inverse phenomenon, the baby boom of the 1940s. A major impetus to historical demography in Europe was the desire of demographers at the National Institute of Demographic Studies to understand Europe's fertility decline through knowledge of the mechanisms that initially caused it to occur. The diversity of apparent demographic models that have resulted from the works of historical demographers has caused various regional models to be proposed for France in the 17th and 18th centuries. It is clear from statistical analysis of available data that by the 18th century, fertility control was practiced by the mass of the French population, but the interpretation of this fact is problematic. The change in fertility behavior must reflect a deeper change in mentalities. The diffusion of contraception in the 18th century did not represent a transgression of the teachings of the Catholic Church as much as a change in attitudes toward life in which the future security of children was increasingly sought in education and improved living standards, and in

  4. Atom cooling by nonadiabatic expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Xi; Muga, J. G.; Campo, A. del; Ruschhaupt, A.

    2009-12-15

    Motivated by the recent discovery that a reflecting wall moving with a square-root-in-time trajectory behaves as a universal stopper of classical particles regardless of their initial velocities, we compare linear-in-time and square-root-in-time expansions of a box to achieve efficient atom cooling. For the quantum single-atom wave functions studied the square-root-in-time expansion presents important advantages: asymptotically it leads to zero average energy whereas any linear-in-time (constant box-wall velocity) expansion leaves a nonzero residual energy, except in the limit of an infinitely slow expansion. For finite final times and box lengths we set a number of bounds and cooling principles which again confirm the superior performance of the square-root-in-time expansion, even more clearly for increasing excitation of the initial state. Breakdown of adiabaticity is generally fatal for cooling with the linear expansion but not so with the square-root-in-time expansion.

  5. Thermal Expansion of Polyurethane Foam

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lerch, Bradley A.; Sullivan, Roy M.

    2006-01-01

    Closed cell foams are often used for thermal insulation. In the case of the Space Shuttle, the External Tank uses several thermal protection systems to maintain the temperature of the cryogenic fuels. A few of these systems are polyurethane, closed cell foams. In an attempt to better understand the foam behavior on the tank, we are in the process of developing and improving thermal-mechanical models for the foams. These models will start at the microstructural level and progress to the overall structural behavior of the foams on the tank. One of the key properties for model characterization and verification is thermal expansion. Since the foam is not a material, but a structure, the modeling of the expansion is complex. It is also exacerbated by the anisoptropy of the material. During the spraying and foaming process, the cells become elongated in the rise direction and this imparts different properties in the rise direction than in the transverse directions. Our approach is to treat the foam as a two part structure consisting of the polymeric cell structure and the gas inside the cells. The polymeric skeleton has a thermal expansion of its own which is derived from the basic polymer chemistry. However, a major contributor to the thermal expansion is the volume change associated with the gas inside of the closed cells. As this gas expands it exerts pressure on the cell walls and changes the shape and size of the cells. The amount that this occurs depends on the elastic and viscoplastic properties of the polymer skeleton. The more compliant the polymeric skeleton, the more influence the gas pressure has on the expansion. An additional influence on the expansion process is that the polymeric skeleton begins to breakdown at elevated temperatures and releases additional gas species into the cell interiors, adding to the gas pressure. The fact that this is such a complex process makes thermal expansion ideal for testing the models. This report focuses on the thermal

  6. DEMOGRAPHIC UNCERTAINTY IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS. (R825347)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We built a Ricker's model incorporating demographic stochasticity to simulate the effects of demographic uncertainty on responses of gray-tailed vole (Microtus canicaudus) populations to pesticide applications. We constructed models with mark-recapture data collected from populat...

  7. Micromechanics of expansive mechanisms in expansive cement concretes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, M. D.

    The kinetics of hydration were studied by monitoring the presence of various compounds by X-ray diffractometer, a chemical extraction method, and scanning electron microscope. These studies indicated that the rates of depletion of the expanding particles and sulfates are higher in the finer blends, which is why expansion stops earlier in these blends. It is shown that the double curvature phenomenon (strength-drop and sudden increase in the rate of expansion) is caused by mechanical failure (e.g., microcracking) of the matrix surrounding the expanding particles that are producing ettringite crystals. The theory of protective and partial protective coating is reviewed. A hypothesis is introduced which assumes that monosulfate is not formed immediately when ettringite stops forming but is preceded by an intermediate phase. Shrinkage studies show that expansive cements shrink more than portland cements. The results of these studies were used to develop a modified model of the expansive process. It was shown theoretically that the time of expansion is inversely proportional to the surface area of the expansive clinker and directly proportional to the amount of sulfate used.

  8. Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets

  9. Demographic and Anthropometric Assessment of US Army Anthropometric Data Base

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-08-01

    demographics , because the demographic composition of the Army is influenced by many factors . Among these are: recruiting priorities, the state of the...34ST -I-BILAD TECHNICAL REPORT AD NATICK/TR-86/004 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ANTHROPOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF US ARMY SANTHROPOMETRIC DATA BASE BY DTIC BRUCE...TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Demographic and Anthropometric Assessment of Interim Report, Task I, eSeptember 1984 - April

  10. Reconstruction of a beech population bottleneck using archival demographic information and Bayesian analysis of genetic data.

    PubMed

    Lander, Tonya A; Oddou-Muratorio, Sylvie; Prouillet-Leplat, Helene; Klein, Etienne K

    2011-12-01

    Range expansion and contraction has occurred in the history of most species and can seriously impact patterns of genetic diversity. Historical data about range change are rare and generally appropriate for studies at large scales, whereas the individual pollen and seed dispersal events that form the basis of geneflow and colonization generally occur at a local scale. In this study, we investigated range change in Fagus sylvatica on Mont Ventoux, France, using historical data from 1838 to the present and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses of genetic data. From the historical data, we identified a population minimum in 1845 and located remnant populations at least 200 years old. The ABC analysis selected a demographic scenario with three populations, corresponding to two remnant populations and one area of recent expansion. It also identified expansion from a smaller ancestral population but did not find that this expansion followed a population bottleneck, as suggested by the historical data. Despite a strong support to the selected scenario for our data set, the ABC approach showed a low power to discriminate among scenarios on average and a low ability to accurately estimate effective population sizes and divergence dates, probably due to the temporal scale of the study. This study provides an unusual opportunity to test ABC analysis in a system with a well-documented demographic history and identify discrepancies between the results of historical, classical population genetic and ABC analyses. The results also provide valuable insights into genetic processes at work at a fine spatial and temporal scale in range change and colonization.

  11. Understanding and Using Demographic Data: Terms and Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lilley, Stephen

    This publication provides program planners and others with information and analytical tools for using demographic data in program planning, implementation, and evaluation. The report reviews the importance of demographic data and their relevance to programs and proper implementation of laws, discusses the collection of demographic information by…

  12. Social Security Disability: Demographic and Economic Characteristics of New Beneficiaries.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-01-01

    your offices, we are providing information on the demographic , health, and economic conditions of social security disability insurance program...new survey in a subsequent report. SSA conducted its New Beneficiary Survey between October and December 1982, collecting a wide range of demographic ...retired beneficiaries and the general population. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS The disabled beneficiaries surveyed consisted of

  13. Demographics and treatment of the American family.

    PubMed

    Jojic, Mirjana; Raj, Abita; Wilkins, Kerry; Treadwell, Robyn; Caussade-Rodriguez, Eduardo; Blum, Joshua

    2012-04-01

    There have been numerous changes to the US family over the past several decades. Traditional family roles have changed, and the conception of what Americans consider a 'family' has likewise shifted with differing societal views regarding gender, gender roles, race, and ethnicity. This review examines demographics of the American family as well as a number of family therapies that have been historically and are presently used to treat family problems. We expect that with the changes present in US society, family therapies will need to continue to be sensitive and adaptive to these shifts in order to be effective.

  14. [Demographic Dynamics and Educational Inequality in Mexico].

    PubMed

    Giorguli Saucedo, Silvia E; Vargas Valle, Eunice D; Ulloa, Viviana Salinas; Hubert, Celia; Potter, Joseph E

    This paper seeks to explore the link between educational processes and Mexico's demographic dynamic. In the tradition of thought on population and development, it has been hypothesized that the population growth rate, family size and migration influence the accumulation of human capital among the school-age population. This study explores the link between the academic performance of youth between the age of 14 and 23 and the youth dependency ratio, teenage fertility and internal and international migration, using data aggregated at the municipal level for the year 2000. The analysis uses indicators on the educational supply at the municipal level based on the administrative statistics of the Public Education Secretariat (SEP).

  15. Can Establishment Success Be Determined through Demographic Parameters? A Case Study on Five Introduced Bird Species

    PubMed Central

    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Anadón, José D.; Edelaar, Pim; Carrete, Martina; Tella, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    The dominant criterion to determine when an introduced species is established relies on the maintenance of a self-sustaining population in the area of introduction, i.e. on the viability of the population from a demographic perspective. There is however a paucity of demographic studies on introduced species, and establishment success is thus generally determined by expert opinion without undertaking population viability analyses (PVAs). By means of an intensive five year capture-recapture monitoring program (involving >12,000 marked individuals) we studied the demography of five introduced passerine bird species in southern Spain which are established and have undergone a fast expansion over the last decades. We obtained useful estimates of demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) for one colonial species (Ploceus melanocephalus), confirming the long-term viability of its local population through PVAs. However, extremely low recapture rates prevented the estimation of survival parameters and population growth rates for widely distributed species with low local densities (Estrilda troglodytes and Amandava amandava) but also for highly abundant yet non-colonial species (Estrilda astrild and Euplectes afer). Therefore, determining the establishment success of introduced passerine species by demographic criteria alone may often be troublesome even when devoting much effort to field-work. Alternative quantitative methodologies such as the analysis of spatio-temporal species distributions complemented with expert opinion deserve thus their role in the assessment of establishment success of introduced species when estimates of demographic parameters are difficult to obtain, as is generally the case for non-colonial, highly mobile passerines. PMID:25333743

  16. Can establishment success be determined through demographic parameters? A case study on five introduced bird species.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Anadón, José D; Edelaar, Pim; Carrete, Martina; Tella, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    The dominant criterion to determine when an introduced species is established relies on the maintenance of a self-sustaining population in the area of introduction, i.e. on the viability of the population from a demographic perspective. There is however a paucity of demographic studies on introduced species, and establishment success is thus generally determined by expert opinion without undertaking population viability analyses (PVAs). By means of an intensive five year capture-recapture monitoring program (involving >12,000 marked individuals) we studied the demography of five introduced passerine bird species in southern Spain which are established and have undergone a fast expansion over the last decades. We obtained useful estimates of demographic parameters (survival and reproduction) for one colonial species (Ploceus melanocephalus), confirming the long-term viability of its local population through PVAs. However, extremely low recapture rates prevented the estimation of survival parameters and population growth rates for widely distributed species with low local densities (Estrilda troglodytes and Amandava amandava) but also for highly abundant yet non-colonial species (Estrilda astrild and Euplectes afer). Therefore, determining the establishment success of introduced passerine species by demographic criteria alone may often be troublesome even when devoting much effort to field-work. Alternative quantitative methodologies such as the analysis of spatio-temporal species distributions complemented with expert opinion deserve thus their role in the assessment of establishment success of introduced species when estimates of demographic parameters are difficult to obtain, as is generally the case for non-colonial, highly mobile passerines.

  17. Demographic and health surveys: a profile.

    PubMed

    Corsi, Daniel J; Neuman, Melissa; Finlay, Jocelyn E; Subramanian, S V

    2012-12-01

    Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are comparable nationally representative household surveys that have been conducted in more than 85 countries worldwide since 1984. The DHS were initially designed to expand on demographic, fertility and family planning data collected in the World Fertility Surveys and Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys, and continue to provide an important resource for the monitoring of vital statistics and population health indicators in low- and middle-income countries. The DHS collect a wide range of objective and self-reported data with a strong focus on indicators of fertility, reproductive health, maternal and child health, mortality, nutrition and self-reported health behaviours among adults. Key advantages of the DHS include high response rates, national coverage, high quality interviewer training, standardized data collection procedures across countries and consistent content over time, allowing comparability across populations cross-sectionally and over time. Data from DHS facilitate epidemiological research focused on monitoring of prevalence, trends and inequalities. A variety of robust observational data analysis methods have been used, including cross-sectional designs, repeated cross-sectional designs, spatial and multilevel analyses, intra-household designs and cross-comparative analyses. In this profile, we present an overview of the DHS along with an introduction to the potential scope for these data in contributing to the field of micro- and macro-epidemiology. DHS datasets are available for researchers through MEASURE DHS at www.measuredhs.com.

  18. Children with limb deficiencies: demographic characteristics.

    PubMed

    Al-Worikat, Abdel Fattah; Dameh, Walid

    2008-03-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the demographic data for amputations in children in relation of age, sex, level and cause of amputation. Data were collected from the records of amputees who attended the prosthetic clinic at the Royal Rehabilitation Center, King Hussein Medical Centre, Jordan, between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2005. Demographic data (age, sex, level and cause of amputation) were analyzed. Some 120 children with different levels of amputation were included with mean age of 6.2 years. There were 64 (53.3%) males and 56 (46.7%) females. Male to female ratio was 1.15:1. The dominant level of amputation was trans-radial in 10 patients (15.62%) in the upper limb and trans-tibial in 18 patients (28.12%) in the lower limb. The dominant cause of amputation was congenital deficiency in 56 patients (46.67%) followed by trauma in 48 (40%). The results of this study presented greater similarities to others in the literature, congenital limb deficiency being the dominant cause of amputation in children. This study helps in planning the needs for materials and budgets for the treatment of amputee children in Jordan.

  19. Demographic Characteristics of World Class Jamaican Sprinters

    PubMed Central

    Irving, Rachael; Charlton, Vilma; Morrison, Errol; Facey, Aldeam; Buchanan, Oral

    2013-01-01

    The dominance of Jamaican sprinters in international meets remains largely unexplained. Proposed explanations include demographics and favorable physiological characteristics. The aim of this study was to analyze the demographic characteristics of world class Jamaican sprinters. Questionnaires administered to 120 members of the Jamaican national team and 125 controls elicited information on place of birth, language, ethnicity, and distance and method of travel to school. Athletes were divided into three groups based on athletic disciplines: sprint (s: 100–400 m; n = 80), jump and throw (j/t: jump and throw; n = 25) and, middle distance (md: 800–3000 m; n = 15). Frequency differences between groups were assessed using chi-square tests. Regional or county distribution of sprint differed from that of middle distance (P < 0.001) but not from that of jump and throw athletes (P = 0.24) and that of controls (P = 0.59). Sprint athletes predominately originated from the Surrey county (s = 46%, j/t = 37%, md = 17, C = 53%), whilst middle distance athletes exhibited excess from the Middlesex county (md = 60%). The language distribution of all groups showed uniformity with a predominance of English. A higher proportion of middle distance and jump and throw athletes walked to school (md = 80%, j/t = 52%, s = 10%, and C = 12%) and travelled greater distances to school. In conclusion, Jamaica's success in sprinting may be related to environmental and social factors. PMID:24396303

  20. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    PubMed

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population.

  1. Incidence and Demographics of Childhood Ptosis

    PubMed Central

    Griepentrog, Gregory J.; Diehl, Nancy; Mohney, Brian G.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To report the incidence and demographics of childhood ptosis diagnosed over a 40-year period in a well-defined population. Design Retrospective, population-based cohort study. Participants Patients (< 19 years) diagnosed with childhood ptosis as residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1965, through December 31, 2004 Methods The medical records of all potential patients identified by the Rochester Epidemiology Project were reviewed. Main Outcome Measures Calculated annual age- and sex-specific incidence rates and demographic information. Results A total of 107 children were diagnosed with ptosis during the 40-year period, yielding an incidence of 7.9/100,000 < 19 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.4-9.5) of age. Ninety-six (89.7%) of the 107 were congenital in onset, 81 (75%) of which had simple congenital ptosis, yielding a birth prevalence of 1 in 842 births. A family history of childhood ptosis was present in twelve percent of queried patients with simple congenital ptosis. Three (4%) of the simple congenital ptosis cases were bilateral and 55 (68%) of the unilateral cases involved the left upper eyelid (95% CI: 57%-78%, p<0.001). Conclusion Childhood ptosis was diagnosed in 7.9 per 100,000 patients less than 19 years (95% CI: 6.4-9.5). Simple congenital ptosis was the most prevalent form, occurring in 1 in 842 births, and significantly more likely to involve the left side. PMID:21496927

  2. Material Stock Demographics: Cars in Great Britain.

    PubMed

    Cabrera Serrenho, André; Allwood, Julian M

    2016-03-15

    Recent literature on material flow analysis has been focused on quantitative characterization of past material flows. Fewer analyses exist on past and prospective quantification of stocks of materials in-use. Some of these analyses explore the composition of products' stocks, but a focus on the characterization of material stocks and its relation with service delivery is often neglected. We propose the use of the methods of human demography to characterize material stocks, defined herein as stock demographics, exploring the insights that this approach could provide for the sustainable management of materials. We exemplify an application of stock demographics by characterizing the composition and service delivery of iron, steel, and aluminum stocks of cars in Great Britain, 2002-2012. The results show that in this period the stock has become heavier, it is traveling less, and it is idle for more time. The visualization of material stocks' dynamics demonstrates the pace of product replacement as a function of its usefulness and enables the formulation of policy interventions and the exploration of future trends.

  3. Rock expansion caused by ultrasound

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hedberg, C.; Gray, A.

    2013-12-01

    It has during many years been reported that materials' elastic modulus decrease when exposed to influences like mechanical impacts, ultrasound, magnetic fields, electricity and even humidity. Non-perfect atomic structures like rocks, concrete, or damaged metals exhibit a larger effect. This softening has most often been recorded by wave resonance measurements. The motion towards equilibrium is slow - often taking hours or days, which is why the effect is called Slow Dynamics [1]. The question had been raised, if a material expansion also occurs. 'The most fundamental parameter to consider is the volume expansion predicted to occur when positive hole charge carriers become activated, causing a decrease of the electron density in the O2- sublattice of the rock-forming minerals. This decrease of electron density should affect essentially all physical parameters, including the volume.' [2]. A new type of configuration has measured expansion of a rock subjected to ultrasound. A PZT was used as a pressure sensor while the combined thickness of the rock sample and the PZT sensor was held fixed. The expansion increased the stress in both the rock and the PZT, which gave an out-put voltage from the PZT. Knowing its material properties then made it possible to calculate the rock expansion. The equivalent strain caused by the ultrasound was approximately 3 x 10-5. The temperature was monitored and accounted for during the tests and for the maximum expansion the increase was 0.7 C, which means the expansion is at least to some degree caused by heating of the material by the ultrasound. The fraction of bonds activated by ultrasound was estimated to be around 10-5. References: [1] Guyer, R.A., Johnson, P.A.: Nonlinear Mesoscopic Elasticity: The Complex Behaviour of Rocks, Soils, Concrete. Wiley-VCH 2009 [2] M.M. Freund, F.F. Freund, Manipulating the Toughness of Rocks through Electric Potentials, Final Report CIF 2011 Award NNX11AJ84A, NAS Ames 2012.

  4. Asymptotic Expansions, 1/Z Expansions, and the Critical Nuclear Charge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drake, Gordon

    2014-03-01

    The quantum mechanical three-body problem defies analytic solution, and so computationally intensive approximation methods involving, for example, variational calculations with large correlated basis sets must be used. This talk will review recent work to explore the outer fringes of the quantum mechanical three-body problem for heliumlike atoms. Asymptotic expansions provide a surprisingly simple and accurate account of highly excited Rydberg states with high angular momentum. 1 / Z expansions, where Z is the nuclear charge, provide results for an entire isoelectronic sequence within a single calculation. Its radius of convergence is thought to be related to the critical nuclear charge Zc for a state to be bound. For Z expansions and the critical nuclear charge. Research suppoted by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and by SHARCNET.

  5. Study methods, recruitment, socio-demographic findings and demographic representativeness in the OPPERA study

    PubMed Central

    Slade, Gary D.; Bair, Eric; By, Kunthel; Mulkey, Flora; Baraian, Cristina; Rothwell, Rebecca; Reynolds, Maria; Miller, Vanessa; Gonzalez, Yoly; Gordon, Sharon; Ribeiro-Dasilva, Margarete; Lim, Pei Feng; Greenspan, Joel D; Dubner, Ron; Fillingim, Roger B; Diatchenko, Luda; Maixner, William; Dampier, Dawn; Knott, Charles; Ohrbach, Richard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes methods used in the project “Orofacial Pain Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment” (OPPERA) and evaluates socio-demographic characteristics associated with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) in the OPPERA case-control study. Representativeness was investigated by comparing socio-demographic profiles of OPPERA participants with population census profiles of counties near study sites and by comparing age- and gender-associations with TMD in OPPERA and the 2007-09 US National Health Interview Survey. Volunteers aged 18-44 years were recruited at four US study sites: 3,263 people without TMD were enrolled into the prospective cohort study; 1,633 of them were selected as controls for the baseline case-control study. Cases were 185 volunteers with examiner-classified TMD. Distributions of some demographic characteristics among OPPERA participants differed from census profiles, although there was less difference in socio-economic profiles. Odds of TMD was associated with greater age in this 18-44 year range; females had three times the odds of TMD as males; and relative to non-Hispanic-Whites, other racial groups had one-fifth the odds of TMD. Age- and gender-associations with chronic TMD were strikingly similar to associations observed in the US population. Assessments of representativeness in this demographically diverse group of community volunteers suggest that OPPERA case-control findings have good internal validity. PMID:22074749

  6. Demographics: Diversity in More Forms. Student Demographics, Now and the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Windham, Patricia; And Others

    While demographic diversity among the student body has increased substantially over the past several decades, the academic, economic, and social diversity of students will play a greater part in upcoming staffing and faculty requirements at community colleges. Data from Tallahassee Community College (TCC), in Florida, from 1980 to 1994 indicate…

  7. Kentucky Demographics: Demographic and Economic Impacts of Migration in Kentucky, 1975-80. No. 11.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Price, Michael

    This analysis of demographic and economic impacts of migration compared samples of nonmigrants, inmigrants, and outmigrants for Kentucky from 1975 to 1980. Age, gender, race, birth place, educational attainment, income, and labor force characteristics were compared for the three groups. Inmigrants, including intrastate migrants, were compared on…

  8. The use of mobile phones for demographic surveillance of mobile pastoralists and their animals in Chad: proof of principle

    PubMed Central

    Jean-Richard, Vreni; Crump, Lisa; Daugla, Doumagoum Moto; Hattendorf, Jan; Schelling, Esther; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2014-01-01

    Background Demographic information is foundational for the planning and management of social programmes, in particular health services. The existing INDEPTH network surveillance sites are limited to coverage of sedentary populations. Including mobile populations in this approach would be expensive, time consuming and possibly low in accuracy. Very little is known about the demography of mobile pastoralists and their animals, so innovative approaches are urgently needed. Objective To test and evaluate a mobile demographic surveillance system for mobile pastoralist households, including livestock herds, using mobile phones. Design Mobile pastoralist camps were monitored (10 for 12 months and 10 for 18 months) using biweekly mobile phone calls with camp leaders and their wives to conduct interviews about the households and livestock. The collected information was validated through personal visits, GPS data and a livestock demographic model. Results The study showed the feasibility of mobile phone surveillance for mobile pastoralist camps, providing usable, valid information on human and livestock population structures, pregnancy outcomes and herd dynamics, as well as migration patterns. The approach was low-cost and applicable with the existing local resources. Conclusion Demographic surveillance in mobile populations is feasible using mobile phones. Expansion of the small-scale system into a full mobile demographic surveillance system is warranted and would likely lead to improved planning and provision of human and animal health care. PMID:24499744

  9. Demographics of Investigators Involved in OSSA-Funded Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stern, S. Alan; Konkel, Ronald; Habegger, Jay; Byerly, Radford, Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The birth of the U.S. civil space program and the subsequent, dramatic growth in the ranks of the space science research population occurred in the 1950s and 1960s'. The large, post- Sputnik/ Apollo buildup in space program manpower is now approximately one career-lifetime in the past. It is therefore natural to anticipate that a large fraction of the space program engineers, scientists, and managers who pioneered the early exploration of space are approaching retirement. Such a "retirement wave" bodes both a loss of manpower and, more fundamentally, a loss of experience from the civil-space manpower base. Such losses could play a critical role constraining in NASA's ability to expand or maintain its technical capabilities. If this indeed applies to the NASA space science research population, then the potential for problems is exacerbated by the anticipated growth in flight rates, data volume, and data-set diversity which will accompany the planned expansion in the OSSA science effort during the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to describe the OSSA PI/Co-I population and to determine the degree to which the OSSA space science investigator population faces a retirement wave, and to estimate the future population of PIs in the 1990-2010 era. To conduct such a study, we investigated the present demographics of the PI and Co-1 population contained in the NASA/OSSA Announcement of Opportunity (AO) mailing list. PIs represent the "leadership" class of the OSSA scientific researcher population, and Co-Is represent one important, oncoming component of the "replacement" generation. Using the PI population data, we then make projection estimates of the future PI population from 1991 through 2010, under various NASA growth/PI demand scenarios.

  10. Demographics of the Short Period Comets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Spahr, T.; Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing Team

    2008-09-01

    The demographics of the short period comets is not very well understood. In order to create an accurate synthetic population of object to be used in the testing and prediction of the efficiency of the upcoming Pan-STARRS project, we have used two years of minor planet observations reported by the LINEAR survey to construct a model of the underlying cometary population. We find that the known population of Jupiter family comets are the visible portion of two populations, one with aphelia at Jupiter and another with aphelia at Saturn. Furthermore the population of small short period comets is found to be larger than previously thought. In this talk we present the synthetic model and its implication and prospects for science with Pan-STARRS and LSST.

  11. Fire victims: medical outcomes and demographic characteristics.

    PubMed Central

    Levine, M S; Radford, E P

    1977-01-01

    The medical outcomes and demographic characteristics of all victims of fires identified by The Baltimore Fire Department during a 14-month period in Baltimore City were studied. Fifty-nine per cent of victims suffered minor injuries, 25 per cent required hospitalization and 16 per cent were fatalities. The majority of survivable injuries were due to burns, while the majority of deaths were due to pulmonary injury and carbon monoxide intoxication. Deaths occurring at the scene of the fire or during the first 24 hours were predominantly due to carbon monoxide. Exposure to fires was more likely to result in deaths in the very young and very old. Evidence from autopsy protocols suggests that alcohol was a contributory factor. PMID:911020

  12. Demographic variation in nutrition knowledge in England

    PubMed Central

    Parmenter, K.; Waller, J.; Wardle, J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes a nutrition knowledge survey carried out on a cross-section of the adult population of England (n = 1040), looking at knowledge relating to current dietary recommendations, sources of nutrients, healthy food choices and diet–disease links. Serious gaps in knowledge about even the basic recommendations were discovered, and there was much confusion over the relationship between diet and disease. Significant differences in knowledge between socio-demographic groups were found, with men having poorer knowledge than women, and knowledge declining with lower educational level and socio-economic status. Possible reasons for these differences and implications for public education campaigns and socio-economic inequalities in health are discussed. PMID:10751375

  13. 3D face analysis for demographic biometrics

    SciTech Connect

    Tokola, Ryan A; Mikkilineni, Aravind K; Boehnen, Chris Bensing

    2015-01-01

    Despite being increasingly easy to acquire, 3D data is rarely used for face-based biometrics applications beyond identification. Recent work in image-based demographic biometrics has enjoyed much success, but these approaches suffer from the well-known limitations of 2D representations, particularly variations in illumination, texture, and pose, as well as a fundamental inability to describe 3D shape. This paper shows that simple 3D shape features in a face-based coordinate system are capable of representing many biometric attributes without problem-specific models or specialized domain knowledge. The same feature vector achieves impressive results for problems as diverse as age estimation, gender classification, and race classification.

  14. Demographic group differences in adolescents' time attitudes.

    PubMed

    Andretta, James R; Worrell, Frank C; Mello, Zena R; Dixson, Dante D; Baik, Sharon H

    2013-04-01

    In the present study, we examined demographic differences in time attitudes in a sample of 293 adolescents. Time attitudes were measured using the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (Mello & Worrell, 2007; Worrell, Mello, & Buhl, 2011), which assesses positive and negative attitudes toward the past, the present, and the future. Generally, African Americans and Asian Americans reported higher scores for negative time attitudes and lower scores for positive time attitudes than European Americans and Latinos, with medium sizes. Adolescents in the low socioeconomic status group reported a less favorable evaluation of their past than middle and high SES peers, but there were no meaningful differences in time attitudes by gender. Findings indicate that middle SES adolescents, high school juniors and seniors, Latinos, and European Americans had higher representation in positive time attitude clusters (i.e., Positives and Balanced) than high SES adolescents, high school freshmen and sophomores, and African Americans.

  15. The Demographics of Women in Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urry, M.; Marvel, K. B.; Blacker, B.

    1999-12-01

    To assess the status of women in astronomy we need data. How many women are astronomers? How does this percentage change with professional level? Do women have an advantage over men in hiring or other professional opportunities, or do men have the advantage, or is the playing field level? Using recent STScI and AAS surveys, I report the gender demographics in U.S. astronomy departments in 1999. Roughly 1/4 of astronomy graduate students are women, and this percentage decreases with rank, to 6% at the full professor level. Comparing to similar data from 1992, it appears that women fall behind men at the first transition, from graduate student to postdoc, but then keep pace with men in moving to faculty positions. (There is no sign that women advance more easily than men.) Interestingly, the percentage of women is slighly higher in the larger, better known institutions than in the profession as a whole.

  16. Multilocus Analyses Reveal Postglacial Demographic Shrinkage of Juniperus morrisonicola (Cupressaceae), a Dominant Alpine Species in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Chi-Te; Huang, Chao-Li; Hung, Kuo-Hsiang; Chiang, Tzen-Yuh

    2016-01-01

    Postglacial climate changes alter geographical distributions and diversity of species. Such ongoing changes often force species to migrate along the latitude/altitude. Altitudinal gradients represent assemblage of environmental, especially climatic, variable factors that influence the plant distributions. Global warming that triggered upward migrations has therefore impacted the alpine plants on an island. In this study, we examined the genetic structure of Juniperus morrisonicola, a dominant alpine species in Taiwan, and inferred historical, demographic dynamics based on multilocus analyses. Lower levels of genetic diversity in north indicated that populations at higher latitudes were vulnerable to climate change, possibly related to historical alpine glaciers. Neither organellar DNA nor nuclear genes displayed geographical subdivisions, indicating that populations were likely interconnected before migrating upward to isolated mountain peaks, providing low possibilities of seed/pollen dispersal across mountain ranges. Bayesian skyline plots suggested steady population growth of J. morrisonicola followed by recent demographic contraction. In contrast, most lower-elevation plants experienced recent demographic expansion as a result of global warming. The endemic alpine conifer may have experienced dramatic climate changes over the alternation of glacial and interglacial periods, as indicated by a trend showing decreasing genetic diversity with the altitudinal gradient, plus a fact of upward migration. PMID:27561108

  17. Demographic variation and conservation of the narrow endemic plant Ranunculus weyleri

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cursach, Joana; Besnard, Aurélien; Rita, Juan; Fréville, Hélène

    2013-11-01

    Ranunculus weyleri is a narrow endemic protected plant from Majorca Island. It is known from only five populations located in two mountain areas 48 km apart. Using demographic data collected from 2007 to 2010, we assessed the demographic status of two populations - font des Coloms (FC) and talaia Moreia (TM) - using Integral Projection Models (IPMs). We showed that none of the two populations were declining under a deterministic model. Population FC was stable (λ = 1.026, CI95% = 0.965-1.093), while population TM showed sign of demographic expansion (λ = 1.113, CI95% = 1.032-1.219). Plant survival, flowering probability and the mean number of seedlings per floral peduncle were lower in TM, whereas growth and the number of floral peduncles per reproductive plant were lower in FC. Elasticity analyses showed that management strategies increasing plant survival and growth would be the most efficient to increase λ for both populations. Herbivory pressure by goats has been shown to be high in TM, resulting in high predation rate on floral peduncles. Controlling goat pressure may thus represent a promising management option, provided that we can demonstrate a negative impact of herbivory by goats on survival and growth which are the most critical parts of the life cycle in this species. Meanwhile, initiating a long-term monitoring is of crucial importance to get more insights into the relationships between environmental variation, plant performance and population dynamics.

  18. Demographic patterns and sustainable development in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Tawiah, E O

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that the present demographic patterns in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, do not augur well for the achievement of sustainable development. Ghana is characterized by a youthful population, rapid population growth, uneven population distribution, high fertility, and rural-urban migration which has brought human numbers into collision with resources to sustain them. It is submitted that the issues discussed are equally applicable to the subregion as well. The estimated population in 1993 was about 16.4 million. The population of Ghana increased from 1970 to 1984 at a rate of growth of 2.6% per annum. The proliferation of small settlements has serious implications for sustainable development. Urban centers comprised about 12.9% of the total population in 1948, 23% in 1960, 28.3% in 1970, and 31.3% in 1984. The average woman in Ghana still has more than six children. The 1988 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) indicated that the median age at first marriage for women was 16.5 years. Contraceptive use is low in sub-Sahara Africa. Currently married women (15-49) currently using any modern method ranged from 1% in Burundi (1987) and Mali (1987) to 36% in Zimbabwe (1988/89). The rapid population growth in Ghana, coupled with the concentration of infrastructural facilities and job opportunities in the urban centers, has resulted in a massive rural-urban migration. Basic social facilities like health, water, housing, and electricity have been stretched to their breakpoints. The Government of Ghana initiated a major effort to put environmental issues on the priority agenda in March 1988. This led to the preparation of an Environmental Action Plan (EAP) in 1991 to address issues relating to the protection of the environment, but the need is still urgent to adopt relevant population policies as a basic strategy in sustainable development.

  19. Influence of spatial and temporal heterogeneities on the estimation of demographic parameters in a continuous population using individual microsatellite data.

    PubMed

    Leblois, Raphael; Rousset, François; Estoup, Arnaud

    2004-02-01

    Drift and migration disequilibrium are very common in animal and plant populations. Yet their impact on methods of estimation of demographic parameters was rarely evaluated especially in complex realistic population models. The effect of such disequilibria on the estimation of demographic parameters depends on the population model, the statistics, and the genetic markers used. Here we considered the estimation of the product Dsigma2 from individual microsatellite data, where D is the density of adults and sigma2 the average squared axial parent-offspring distance in a continuous population evolving under isolation by distance. A coalescence-based simulation algorithm was used to study the effect on Dsigma2 estimation of temporal and spatial fluctuations of demographic parameters. Estimation of present-time Dsigma2 values was found to be robust to temporal changes in dispersal, to density reduction, and to spatial expansions with constant density, even for relatively recent changes (i.e., a few tens of generations ago). By contrast, density increase in the recent past gave Dsigma2 estimations biased largely toward past demographic parameters values. The method was also robust to spatial heterogeneity in density and estimated local demographic parameters when the density is homogenous around the sampling area (e.g., on a surface that equals four times the sampling area). Hence, in the limit of the situations studied in this article, and with the exception of the case of density increase, temporal and spatial fluctuations of demographic parameters appear to have a limited influence on the estimation of local and present-time demographic parameters with the method studied.

  20. Demographic estimation methods for plants with dormancy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.

    2004-01-01

    Demographic studies in plants appear simple because unlike animals, plants do not run away. Plant individuals can be marked with, e.g., plastic tags, but often the coordinates of an individual may be sufficient to identify it. Vascular plants in temperate latitudes have a pronounced seasonal life–cycle, so most plant demographers survey their study plots once a year often during or shortly after flowering. Life–states are pervasive in plants, hence the results of a demographic study for an individual can be summarized in a familiar encounter history, such as 0VFVVF000. A zero means that an individual was not seen in a year and a letter denotes its state for years when it was seen aboveground. V and F here stand for vegetative and flowering states, respectively. Probabilities of survival and state transitions can then be obtained by mere counting.Problems arise when there is an unobservable dormant state, i.e., when plants may stay belowground for one or more growing seasons. Encounter histories such as 0VF00F000 may then occur where the meaning of zeroes becomes ambiguous. A zero can either mean a dead or a dormant plant. Various ad hoc methods in wide use among plant ecologists have made strong assumptions about when a zero should be equated to a dormant individual. These methods have never been compared among each other. In our talk and in Kéry et al. (submitted), we show that these ad hoc estimators provide spurious estimates of survival and should not be used.In contrast, if detection probabilities for aboveground plants are known or can be estimated, capturerecapture (CR) models can be used to estimate probabilities of survival and state–transitions and the fraction of the population that is dormant. We have used this approach in two studies of terrestrial orchids, Cleistes bifaria (Kéry et al., submitted) and Cypripedium reginae(Kéry & Gregg, submitted) in West Virginia, U.S.A. For Cleistes, our data comprised one population with a total of 620

  1. Mechanical waves during tissue expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Picamal, Xavier; Conte, Vito; Vincent, Romaric; Anon, Ester; Tambe, Dhananjay T.; Bazellieres, Elsa; Butler, James P.; Fredberg, Jeffrey J.; Trepat, Xavier

    2012-08-01

    The processes by which an organism develops its shape and heals wounds involve expansion of a monolayer sheet of cells. The mechanism underpinning this epithelial expansion remains obscure, despite the fact that its failure is known to contribute to several diseases, including carcinomas, which account for about 90% of all human cancers. Here, using the micropatterned epithelial monolayer as a model system, we report the discovery of a mechanical wave that propagates slowly to span the monolayer, traverses intercellular junctions in a cooperative manner and builds up differentials of mechanical stress. Essential features of this wave generation and propagation are captured by a minimal model based on sequential fronts of cytoskeletal reinforcement and fluidization. These findings establish a mechanism of long-range cell guidance, symmetry breaking and pattern formation during monolayer expansion.

  2. Thermal Expansion of Hafnium Carbide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grisaffe, Salvatore J.

    1960-01-01

    Since hafnium carbide (HfC) has a melting point of 7029 deg. F, it may have many high-temperature applications. A literature search uncovered very little information about the properties of HfC, and so a program was initiated at the Lewis Research Center to determine some of the physical properties of this material. This note presents the results of the thermal expansion investigation. The thermal-expansion measurements were made with a Gaertner dilatation interferometer calibrated to an accuracy of +/- 1 deg. F. This device indicates expansion by the movement of fringes produced by the cancellation and reinforcement of fixed wave-length light rays which are reflected from the surfaces of two parallel quartz glass disks. The test specimens which separate these disks are three small cones, each approximately 0.20 in. high.

  3. Expansion-based passive ranging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barniv, Yair

    1993-01-01

    A new technique of passive ranging which is based on utilizing the image-plane expansion experienced by every object as its distance from the sensor decreases is described. This technique belongs in the feature/object-based family. The motion and shape of a small window, assumed to be fully contained inside the boundaries of some object, is approximated by an affine transformation. The parameters of the transformation matrix are derived by initially comparing successive images, and progressively increasing the image time separation so as to achieve much larger triangulation baseline than currently possible. Depth is directly derived from the expansion part of the transformation. To a first approximation, image-plane expansion is independent of image-plane location with respect to the focus of expansion (FOE) and of platform maneuvers. Thus, an expansion-based method has the potential of providing a reliable range in the difficult image area around the FOE. In areas far from the FOE the shift parameters of the affine transformation can provide more accurate depth information than the expansion alone, and can thus be used similarly to the way they were used in conjunction with the Inertial Navigation Unit (INU) and Kalman filtering. However, the performance of a shift-based algorithm, when the shifts are derived from the affine transformation, would be much improved compared to current algorithms because the shifts - as well as the other parameters - can be obtained between widely separated images. Thus, the main advantage of this new approach is that, allowing the tracked window to expand and rotate, in addition to moving laterally, enables one to correlate images over a very long time span which, in turn, translates into a large spatial baseline - resulting in a proportionately higher depth accuracy.

  4. Expansion-based passive ranging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barniv, Yair

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a new technique of passive ranging which is based on utilizing the image-plane expansion experienced by every object as its distance from the sensor decreases. This technique belongs in the feature/object-based family. The motion and shape of a small window, assumed to be fully contained inside the boundaries of some object, is approximated by an affine transformation. The parameters of the transformation matrix are derived by initially comparing successive images, and progressively increasing the image time separation so as to achieve much larger triangulation baseline than currently possible. Depth is directly derived from the expansion part of the transformation. To a first approximation, image-plane expansion is independent of image-plane location with respect to the focus of expansion (FOE) and of platform maneuvers. Thus, an expansion-based method has the potential of providing a reliable range in the difficult image area around the FOE. In areas far from the FOE the shift parameters of the affine transformation can provide more accurate depth information than the expansion alone, and can thus be used similarly to the way they have been used in conjunction with the Inertial Navigation Unit (INU) and Kalman filtering. However, the performance of a shift-based algorithm, when the shifts are derived from the affine transformation, would be much improved compared to current algorithms because the shifts--as well as the other parameters--can be obtained between widely separated images. Thus, the main advantage of this new approach is that, allowing the tracked window to expand and rotate, in addition to moving laterally, enables one to correlate images over a very long time span which, in turn, translates into a large spatial baseline resulting in a proportionately higher depth accuracy.

  5. Relativistic effects on plasma expansion

    SciTech Connect

    Benkhelifa, El-Amine; Djebli, Mourad

    2014-07-15

    The expansion of electron-ion plasma is studied through a fully relativistic multi-fluids plasma model which includes thermal pressure, ambipolar electrostatic potential, and internal energy conversion. Numerical investigation, based on quasi-neutral assumption, is performed for three different regimes: nonrelativistic, weakly relativistic, and relativistic. Ions' front in weakly relativistic regime exhibits spiky structure associated with a break-down of quasi-neutrality at the expanding front. In the relativistic regime, ion velocity is found to reach a saturation limit which occurs at earlier stages of the expansion. This limit is enhanced by higher electron velocity.

  6. 18 CFR 154.309 - Incremental expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Incremental expansions... Changes § 154.309 Incremental expansions. (a) For every expansion for which incremental rates are charged... costs and revenues associated with the expansion, until the Commission authorizes the costs of...

  7. 18 CFR 154.309 - Incremental expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Incremental expansions... Changes § 154.309 Incremental expansions. (a) For every expansion for which incremental rates are charged... costs and revenues associated with the expansion, until the Commission authorizes the costs of...

  8. 48 CFR 570.403 - Expansion requests.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Expansion requests. 570... Continued Space Requirements 570.403 Expansion requests. (a) If the expansion space is in the general scope... justification under FAR 6.3. (b) If the expansion space needed is outside the general scope of the lease,...

  9. 18 CFR 154.309 - Incremental expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Incremental expansions... Changes § 154.309 Incremental expansions. (a) For every expansion for which incremental rates are charged... costs and revenues associated with the expansion, until the Commission authorizes the costs of...

  10. 18 CFR 154.309 - Incremental expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Incremental expansions... Changes § 154.309 Incremental expansions. (a) For every expansion for which incremental rates are charged... costs and revenues associated with the expansion, until the Commission authorizes the costs of...

  11. 48 CFR 570.403 - Expansion requests.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Expansion requests. 570... Continued Space Requirements 570.403 Expansion requests. (a) If the expansion space is in the general scope... justification under FAR 6.3. (b) If the expansion space needed is outside the general scope of the lease,...

  12. 48 CFR 570.403 - Expansion requests.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Expansion requests. 570... Continued Space Requirements 570.403 Expansion requests. (a) If the expansion space is in the general scope... justification under FAR 6.3. (b) If the expansion space needed is outside the general scope of the lease,...

  13. 48 CFR 570.403 - Expansion requests.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Expansion requests. 570... Continued Space Requirements 570.403 Expansion requests. (a) If the expansion space is in the general scope... justification under FAR 6.3. (b) If the expansion space needed is outside the general scope of the lease,...

  14. 18 CFR 154.309 - Incremental expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Incremental expansions... Changes § 154.309 Incremental expansions. (a) For every expansion for which incremental rates are charged... costs and revenues associated with the expansion, until the Commission authorizes the costs of...

  15. 48 CFR 570.403 - Expansion requests.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Expansion requests. 570... Continued Space Requirements 570.403 Expansion requests. (a) If the expansion space is in the general scope... FAR 6.3. (b) If the expansion space needed is outside the general scope of the lease,...

  16. Bearing-Mounting Concept Accommodates Thermal Expansion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nespodzany, Robert; Davis, Toren S.

    1995-01-01

    Pins or splines allow radial expansion without slippage. Design concept for mounting rotary bearing accommodates differential thermal expansion between bearing and any structure(s) to which bearing connected. Prevents buildup of thermal stresses by allowing thermal expansion to occur freely but accommodating expansion in such way not to introduce looseness. Pin-in-slot configuration also maintains concentricity.

  17. A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species.

    PubMed

    Collevatti, Rosane G; Terribile, Levi Carina; Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus S; Nabout, João C; de Oliveira, Guilherme; Rangel, Thiago F; Rabelo, Suelen G; Diniz-Filho, Jose A F

    2012-12-01

    We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH, and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses ('Pleistocene Arc' and 'Amazonian SDF expansion') and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.

  18. The Thermal Expansion Of Feldspars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hovis, G. L.; Medford, A.; Conlon, M.

    2009-12-01

    Hovis and others (1) investigated the thermal expansion of natural and synthetic AlSi3 feldspars and demonstrated that the coefficient of thermal expansion (α) decreases significantly, and linearly, with increasing room-temperature volume (VRT). In all such feldspars, therefore, chemical expansion limits thermal expansion. The scope of this work now has been broadened to include plagioclase and Ba-K feldspar crystalline solutions. X-ray powder diffraction data have been collected between room temperature and 925 °C on six plagioclase specimens ranging in composition from anorthite to oligoclase. When combined with thermal expansion data for albite (2,3,4) a steep linear trend of α as a function of VRT emerges, reflecting how small changes in composition dramatically affect expansion behavior. The thermal expansion data for five synthetic Ba-K feldspars ranging in composition from 20 to 100 mole percent celsian, combined with data for pure K-feldspar (3,4), show α-VRT relationships similar in nature to the plagioclase series, but with a slope and intercept different from the latter. Taken as a group all Al2Si2 feldspars, including anorthite and celsian from the present study along with Sr- (5) and Pb-feldspar (6) from other workers, show very limited thermal expansion that, unlike AlSi3 feldspars, has little dependence on the divalent-ion (or M-) site occupant. This apparently is due to the necessitated alternation of Al and Si in the tetrahedral sites of these minerals (7), which in turn locks the tetrahedral framework and makes the M-site occupant nearly irrelevant to expansion behavior. Indeed, in feldspar series with coupled chemical substitution it is the change away from a 1:1 Al:Si ratio that gives feldspars greater freedom to expand. Overall, the relationships among α, chemical composition, and room-temperature volume provide useful predictive tools for estimating feldspar thermal expansion and give insight into the controls of expansion behavior in

  19. Removable Type Expansion Bolt Innovative Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Feng-Lan; Zhang, Bo; Gao, Bo; Liu, Yan-Xin; Gao, Bo

    2016-05-01

    Expansion bolt is a kind of the most common things in our daily life. Currently, there are many kinds of expansion bolts in the market. However, they have some shortcomings that mainly contain underuse and unremovement but our innovation of design makes up for these shortcomings very well. Principle of working follows this: expansion tube is fixed outside of bolt, steel balls and expansion covers are fixed inside. Meanwhile, the steel balls have 120° with each other. When using it ,expansion cover is moved in the direction of its internal part. So the front part of expansion bolt cover is increasingly becoming big and steel halls is moved outside. Only in this way can it be fixed that steel balls make expansion tube expand. When removing them, expansion bolt is moved outside. So the front part of expansion bolt cover is gradually becoming small and steel balls moves inside, after expansion tube shrinks, we can detach them.

  20. Population Genetic Structure and Demographic History of Atrina pectinata Based on Mitochondrial DNA and Microsatellite Markers

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Dong-Xiu; Wang, Hai-Yan; Zhang, Tao; Liu, Jin-Xian

    2014-01-01

    The pen shell, Atrina pectinata, is one of the commercial bivalves in East Asia and thought to be recently affected by anthropogenic pressure (habitat destruction and/or fishing pressure). Information on its population genetic structure is crucial for the conservation of A. pectinata. Considering its long pelagic larval duration and iteroparity with high fecundity, the genetic structure for A. pectinata could be expected to be weak at a fine scale. However, the unusual oceanography in the coasts of China and Korea suggests potential for restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae and geographical differentiation. In addition, environmental changes associated with Pleistocene sea level fluctuations on the East China Sea continental shelf may also have strongly influenced historical population demography and genetic diversity of marine organisms. Here, partial sequences of the mitochondrial Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and seven microsatellite loci were used to estimate population genetic structure and demographic history of seven samples from Northern China coast and one sample from North Korea coast. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within samples, there was no genetic differentiation among samples from Northern China coast and low but significant genetic differentiation between some of the Chinese samples and the North Korean sample. A late Pleistocene population expansion, probably after the Last Glacial Maximum, was also demonstrated for A. pectinata samples. No recent genetic bottleneck was detected in any of the eight samples. We concluded that both historical recolonization (through population range expansion and demographic expansion in the late Pleistocene) and current gene flow (through larval dispersal) were responsible for the weak level of genetic structure detected in A. pectinata. PMID:24789175

  1. Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

    PubMed Central

    Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

    2015-01-01

    We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

  2. Expansive Openness in Teacher Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kimmons, Royce

    2016-01-01

    Background/Context: Previous work on the use of open educational resources in K-12 classrooms has generally focused on issues related to cost. The current study takes a more expansive view of openness that also accounts for adaptation and sharing in authentic classroom contexts. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study The study seeks to…

  3. Clamshell Thermal-Expansion Bellows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fesmire, J.; Moore, W. I.; Dipasquale, S. D.

    1993-01-01

    Improved bellows serves as thermal-expansion joint in vacuum-jacketed cyrogenic piping system. Made of Hastelloy C-22 and fabricated in field by welding two clam-shell-like half bellows. No protective paint or maintenance needed. Design modified to fit most thin-wall bellows.

  4. The Impact of Educational Interventions by Socio-Demographic Attribute

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-07-10

    The Impact of Educational Interventions by Socio- Demographic Attribute Brian R. Hirshman, Michael Martin, Michael W. Bigrigg and...The Impact of Educational Interventions by Socio- Demographic Attribute 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...mechanisms have been added to Construct, and these attributes have been tied to socio- demographic sub-populations, it is now possible to examine the effects

  5. The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-05-05

    Demographic Profile of the United States Updated May 5, 2006 Laura B. Shrestha Specialist in Demography Domestic Social Policy Division Report...TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT...unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 The Changing Demographic Profile of the United

  6. Behavioral, Psychological, and Demographic Predictors of Physical Fitness.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-12-14

    psychological factors related to beliefs about fitness and weight control, and background/ demographic factors . These findings represent a successful attempt to...7AD-A192 697 BEHAVIORAL PSYCHOLOGICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTORS OF j PHYSICAL FITNESS(U) NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER SAN DIEGO CA T L CONW~AY 1.4...DEC 87 NHRC-87-37 UNCLASSIFIED F/G 6/ie NL Illll i 11 .0 14w -W -- - -JCFILE Copy BEHAVIORALF PSYCHOLOGICAL, AND DEMOGRAPHIC - PREDICTORS OPPHYSICAL

  7. A Comparison of Breast Cancer Treatment Regimens by Demographic Characteristics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-10-01

    Cancer Treatment Regimens by Demographic Characteristics PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Marianne E. Ulcickas Yood, M.P.H. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Henry...NUMBERS A Comparison of Breast Cancer Treatment Regimens by Demographic Characteristics DAMD17-97-1-7302 6. AUTHOR(S) Marianne E. Ulcickas Yood, M.P.H. 7... Cancer Treatment Regimens by Demographic Characteristics (DAMD17-97-1-7302), Annual Report October, 1998 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction

  8. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS).

    PubMed

    Beguy, Donatien; Elung'ata, Patricia; Mberu, Blessing; Oduor, Clement; Wamukoya, Marylene; Nganyi, Bonface; Ezeh, Alex

    2015-04-01

    The Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) was the first urban-based longitudinal health and demographic surveillance platform in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The NUHDSS was established in 2002 to provide a platform to investigate the long-term social, economic and health consequences of urban residence, and to serve as a primary research tool for intervention and impact evaluation studies focusing on the needs of the urban poor in SSA. Since its inception, the NUHDSS has successfully followed every year a population of about 65,000 individuals in 24,000 households in two slum communities--Korogocho and Viwandani--in Nairobi, Kenya. Data collected include key demographic and health information (births, deaths including verbal autopsy, in- and out-migration, immunization) and other information that characterizes living conditions in the slums (livelihood opportunities, household amenities and possessions, type of housing etc.). In addition to the routine data, it has provided a robust platform for nesting several studies examining the challenges of rapid urbanization in SSA and associated health and poverty dynamics. NUHDSS data are shared through internal and external collaborations, in accordance with the Centre's guidelines for publications, data sharing.

  9. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System in The Gambia.

    PubMed

    Jasseh, Momodou; Gomez, Pierre; Greenwood, Brian M; Howie, Stephen R C; Scott, Susana; Snell, Paul C; Bojang, Kalifa; Cham, Mamady; Corrah, Tumani; D'Alessandro, Umberto

    2015-06-01

    The Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Farafenni HDSS) is located 170 km from the coast in a rural area of The Gambia, north of the River Gambia. It was set up in 1981 by the UK Medical Research Council Laboratories to generate demographic and health information required for the evaluation of a village-based, primary health care programme in 40 villages. Regular updates of demographic events and residency status have subsequently been conducted every 4 months. The surveillance area was extended in 2002 to include Farafenni Town and surrounding villages to support randomized, controlled trials. With over three decades of prospective surveillance, and through specific scientific investigations, the platform (population ≈ 50,000) has generated data on: morbidity and mortality due to malaria in children and during pregnancy; non-communicable disease among adults; reproductive health; and levels and trends in childhood and maternal mortality. Other information routinely collected includes causes of death through verbal autopsy, and household socioeconomic indicators. The current portfolio of the platform includes tracking Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) attainments in rural Gambia and cause-of-death determination.

  10. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    PubMed

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  11. Effective Expansion: Balance between Shrinkage and Hygroscopic Expansion.

    PubMed

    Suiter, E A; Watson, L E; Tantbirojn, D; Lou, J S B; Versluis, A

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between hygroscopic expansion and polymerization shrinkage for compensation of polymerization shrinkage stresses in a restored tooth. One resin-modified glass-ionomer (RMGI) (Ketac Nano, 3M ESPE), 2 compomers (Dyract, Dentsply; Compoglass, Ivoclar), and a universal resin-based composite (Esthet•X HD, Dentsply) were tested. Volumetric change after polymerization ("total shrinkage") and during 4 wk of water storage at 37°C was measured using an optical method (n= 10). Post-gel shrinkage was measured during polymerization using a strain gauge method (n= 10). Extracted human molars with large mesio-occluso-distal slot preparations were restored with the tested restorative materials. Tooth surfaces at baseline (preparation), after restoration, and during 4 wk of 37°C water storage were scanned with an optical scanner to determine cuspal flexure (n= 8). Occlusal interface integrity was measured using dye penetration. Data were analyzed using analysis of variance and post hoc tests (significance level 0.05). All tested materials shrunk after polymerization. RMGI had the highest total shrinkage (4.65%) but lowest post-gel shrinkage (0.35%). Shrinkage values dropped significantly during storage in water but had not completely compensated polymerization shrinkage after 4 wk. All restored teeth initially exhibited inward (negative) cuspal flexure due to polymerization shrinkage. Cuspal flexure with the RMGI restoration was significantly less (-6.4 µm) than with the other materials (-12.1 to -14.1 µm). After 1 d, cuspal flexure reversed to +5.0 µm cuspal expansion with the RMGI and increased to +9.3 µm at 4 wk. After 4 wk, hygroscopic expansion compensated cuspal flexure in a compomer (Compoglass) and reduced flexure with Dyract and resin-based composite. Marginal integrity (93.7% intact restoration wall) was best for the Compoglass restorations and lowest (73.1%) for the RMGI restorations. Hygroscopic

  12. Demographics of Resonances in Exoplanetary Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragozzine, Darin; Conaway, James L.; MacDonald, Mariah G.; Sallee, Victor

    2016-10-01

    NASA's Kepler Space Telescope has identified ~700 systems of multiple transiting exoplanets containing ~1700 planets. Most of these multi-transiting systems have 3-5 planets small planets with periods of roughly 5-50 days and are known as Systems with Tightly-spaced Inner Planets (STIPs). These information-rich exoplanetary systems have precisely measured period ratios which allows for the identification and characterization of orbital mean motion resonances. Improved understanding of the resonant populations will reveal much about the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Lissauer, Ragozzine, et al. 2011 found that most Kepler systems were not in resonance, but that there was a small excess of planets wide of resonance. We present new analyses that rigorously identify the frequency of planets in multiple resonances (including three-body resonances) and thus identify many specific new results on the demographics of resonances. We also show that the apparent over-abundance of resonances can be attributed to a difference in inclinations (potentially from dissipation) with implications for the true underlying frequency of resonant systems. We compare the period ratio distribution of Kepler (corrected for inclination biases) to Radial Velocity (RV) surveys and conclude that RV systems are often missing small intermediate planets. This has serious implications for the completeness of RV identification of planets in STIPs.

  13. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  14. Algeria. From demographic explosion to social rupture.

    PubMed

    Fargues, P

    1994-01-01

    Large families were the rule 20-30 years ago in the Maghrib and less than ten years ago in the Mashriq, with couples typically bearing 7-9 children over the course of their reproductive lives. The overall rate of total fertility, however, declined by more than 50% by the beginning of the 1990s. Rates of population growth in all Mediterranean Arab countries have actually started to decline. This stabilization of actual population growth does not, however, mean that the demand for social services will level off. Demand for health and education services increases with the decrease in the number of infants and children per family. In the years ahead, there will also be more jobs to create and houses to build, with additional future costs attributed less to an increase in numbers than to rising aspirations. The author discusses rural-urban and regional differentials in fertility, the political economy of fertility, social change and women's status, the rapid and wide-scale diffusion of formal education, and how demographic change has set the stage for horizontal competition between peers and vertical competition among generations.

  15. Multipole expansions and intense fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reiss, Howard R.

    1984-02-01

    In the context of two-body bound-state systems subjected to a plane-wave electromagnetic field, it is shown that high field intensity introduces a distinction between long-wavelength approximation and electric dipole approximation. This distinction is gauge dependent, since it is absent in Coulomb gauge, whereas in "completed" gauges of Göppert-Mayer type the presence of high field intensity makes electric quadrupole and magnetic dipole terms of importance equal to electric dipole at long wavelengths. Another consequence of high field intensity is that multipole expansions lose their utility in view of the equivalent importance of a number of low-order multipole terms and the appearance of large-magnitude terms which defy multipole categorization. This loss of the multipole expansion is gauge independent. Also gauge independent is another related consequence of high field intensity, which is the intimate coupling of center-of-mass and relative coordinate motions in a two-body system.

  16. Demographic Faultlines: A Meta-Analysis of the Literature

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thatcher, Sherry M. B.; Patel, Pankaj C.

    2011-01-01

    We propose and test a theoretical model focusing on antecedents and consequences of demographic faultlines. We also posit contingencies that affect overall team dynamics in the context of demographic faultlines, such as the study setting and performance measurement. Using meta-analysis structural equation modeling with a final data set consisting…

  17. China's Demographic Challenge Requires an Integrated Coping Strategy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peng, Xizhe

    2013-01-01

    China has entered into a new stage of demographic dynamics whereby population-related challenges are more complicated than ever before. The current one-child policy should be modified. However, the anticipated impacts of such a policy change should not be over-exaggerated. China's demographic challenge requires an integrated coping strategy.…

  18. Strategic Responses to Demographic Changes: Students, Faculty, and Patrons.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scott, Robert A.

    Demographic changes affecting college students, faculty, and patrons and responses to the changes are considered. For each of the three groups, attention is directed to factors influencing change within and outside the campus, options available to the campus, and strategies for responding to the demographic changes. To recruit new full-time…

  19. Making the Case for Demographic Data in Extension Programming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Katherine J.; Verdoff, Daniel; Rizzo, Bill; Beaudoin, James

    2012-01-01

    Understanding one's community is essential for effective Extension programming across all program areas. The use of current and reliable demographic data is crucial for Extension to develop effective education and programming to track change and to uncover hidden community characteristics. We discuss what demographic data are, present…

  20. Developing a Global Mindset: Integrating Demographics, Sustainability, Technology, and Globalization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aggarwal, Raj

    2011-01-01

    Business schools face a number of challenges in responding to the business influences of demographics, sustainability, and technology--all three of which are also the fundamental driving forces for globalization. Demographic forces are creating global imbalances in worker populations and in government finances; the world economy faces…

  1. Human Resources & Demographics: Characteristics of People and Policy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joint Economic Committee, Washington, DC.

    The Human Resources and Demographics staff study for the Joint Economic Committee's Special Study on Economic Change presents demographic data to support the position that it will take a strong economy to enable the United States to utilize its human resources. Data are presented, in narrative format, on fertility, population, characteristics of…

  2. Demographic Trends and Economic Problems: A Challenge for Swedish Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dahllof, Urban

    1981-01-01

    Present economic difficulties in Sweden, it is suggested, pose a threat to educational policy for which demographic development could otherwise offer alternatives aimed primarily at promoting qualitative progress. The present demographic situation is dominated by changes in three dimensions: the size of its younger age groups, internal migration,…

  3. Language Minority Student Demographics in Maine Schools, 1997-98.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berube, Barney

    The report provides both statewide and school district summative data concerning language minority (LM) student demographics in Maine. Statewide data include a demographic overview, annual LM enrollments, high-concentration LM areas, distribution of minority languages, by language or language group, number of Maine public schools enrolling…

  4. The Impact of Extrinsic Demographic Factors on Cantonese Speech Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    To, Carol K. S.; Cheung, Pamela S. P.; McLeod, Sharynne

    2013-01-01

    This study modeled the associations between extrinsic demographic factors and children's speech acquisition in Hong Kong Cantonese. The speech of 937 Cantonese-speaking children aged 2;4 to 6;7 in Hong Kong was assessed using a standardized speech test. Demographic information regarding household income, paternal education, maternal education,…

  5. A Classroom Activity to Illustrate the Demographic Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weihe, Paul

    2006-01-01

    A discussion of the Demographic Transition is included in many Environmental Biology or Environmental Science classes. The Demographic Transition occurs as a nation becomes more urban and wealthy, and was widely observed in the twentieth century. The phenomenon includes decreasing family size (fewer children) across generations. In this classroom…

  6. Febrile Seizure: Demographic Features and Causative Factors

    PubMed Central

    ESMAILI GOURABI, Hamed; BIDABADI, Elham; CHERAGHALIPOUR, Fatemeh; AARABI, Yasaman; SALAMAT, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    Objective Because of geographical and periodical variation, we prompted to determine the demographic features and causative factors for febrile seizure in Rasht. Materials & Methods In this cross-sectional study, all 6–month- to 6-year-old children with the diagnosis of febrile seizure admitted to 17 Shahrivar hospital in Rasht, from August, 2009 to August, 2010 were studied. Age, sex, family history of the disease, seizure types, body temperature upon admission and infectious causes of the fever were recorded. All statistical analysis was performed with SPSS software, version 16. Results Of the 214 children (mean age, 25.24±15.40 months), 124 were boys and 109 had a positive family history. Complex seizures were seen in 39 cases. In patients with a complex febrile seizure, 59% had the repetitive type, 20.5% had the focal type and 20.5% had more than 15 minutes duration of seizures. Most of the repetitive seizures (78.3%) occurred in patients under 2 years old; the difference between under and over 2-year-old patients was statistically significant. Study results did not show significant differences between the two genders for simple or complex seizures. The mean body temperature upon admission was 38.2±1.32◦C (38.31±0.82 degrees in boys and 38.04±1.78 in girls). Upper respiratory infections were seen in most patients (74.29%). All cases of lower respiratory infections were boys. There was a statistically significant difference between boys and girls in causes of fever. Conclusion Most of the children had a positive family history and the most common causative factor was upper respiratory infection. PMID:24665278

  7. Genetic demographic networks: Mathematical model and applications.

    PubMed

    Kimmel, Marek; Wojdyła, Tomasz

    2016-10-01

    Recent improvement in the quality of genetic data obtained from extinct human populations and their ancestors encourages searching for answers to basic questions regarding human population history. The most common and successful are model-based approaches, in which genetic data are compared to the data obtained from the assumed demography model. Using such approach, it is possible to either validate or adjust assumed demography. Model fit to data can be obtained based on reverse-time coalescent simulations or forward-time simulations. In this paper we introduce a computational method based on mathematical equation that allows obtaining joint distributions of pairs of individuals under a specified demography model, each of them characterized by a genetic variant at a chosen locus. The two individuals are randomly sampled from either the same or two different populations. The model assumes three types of demographic events (split, merge and migration). Populations evolve according to the time-continuous Moran model with drift and Markov-process mutation. This latter process is described by the Lyapunov-type equation introduced by O'Brien and generalized in our previous works. Application of this equation constitutes an original contribution. In the result section of the paper we present sample applications of our model to both simulated and literature-based demographies. Among other we include a study of the Slavs-Balts-Finns genetic relationship, in which we model split and migrations between the Balts and Slavs. We also include another example that involves the migration rates between farmers and hunters-gatherers, based on modern and ancient DNA samples. This latter process was previously studied using coalescent simulations. Our results are in general agreement with the previous method, which provides validation of our approach. Although our model is not an alternative to simulation methods in the practical sense, it provides an algorithm to compute pairwise

  8. Demographic trends, population policy and public opinion.

    PubMed

    Palomba, R; Bonifazi, C; Menniti, A

    1989-01-01

    Findings are analyzed of the Instituto di Richerche solla poplazione survey carried out in Italy in 1987 which focused on: 1) those variables which may be indirectly affecting Italian's fertility intentions, and 2) the degree of acceptability of a global social policy i.e., one that is not only restricted to economic incentives to be offered to families. Data was obtained from a national sample of 1500 people between 18-49 years. Italians have a good awareness of demographic issues; 61% knew of the decline in marriages; 72% were aware of the increasing aging population; 50% viewed the fall in birth rate negatively; and 41% thought that population and fertility trends would remain at the present low level or would decrease even further (49%). The birth rate decline was contributed to economic reasons at both reasons at both a global and an individual level. The majority of people did not show any signs of prejudice toward immigrants; however, they did favor limiting the number of foreigners in general with the exception of political refugees. The majority were also in favor of helping 3rd World countries. Although Italians value their children and the parent-child relationship very highly, a reduction in the value of children with increasing educational level of the respondents was observed. 83% thought that couples should be allowed to have as many children as they wanted; 81% agreed that measures regarding contraceptive knowledge and availability should be improved; and 49% were in favor of measures to increase births. Regarding possible new policy measures, 50% were in full agreement on the development and increased efficiency of social services to enable women to go out to work. (author's modified)

  9. Foot Syndactyly: A Clinical and Demographic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jong Ho; Kim, Byung Jun

    2016-01-01

    Background Syndactyly of the foot is the second most common congenital foot anomaly. In East Asia, however, no large case study has been reported regarding the clinical features of isolated foot syndactyly. In this study, we report a review of 118 patients during the last 25 years. Methods We conducted a chart review of patients who underwent surgical correction for foot syndactyly between January 1990 and December 2014. Operations were performed with a dorsal triangular flap and a full-thickness skin graft. The demographics of included patients and their clinical features were evaluated. Surgical outcomes and complications were analyzed. Results Among 118 patients with 194 webs (155 feet), 111 patients showed nonsyndromic cases and 7 patients showed syndromic cases. In 80 unilateral cases (72.1%), the second web was the most frequently involved (37.5%), followed by the fourth (30%), the first (15%), the third (15%), the first and second in combination (1.3%), and the second and third in combination (1.3%). Among 31 bilateral cases, 2 cases were asymmetric. Among the remaining 29 symmetric bilateral cases, the second web was the most frequently involved (45.2%), followed by the first (22.6%), and the fourth (6.5%). No specific postoperative complications were observed, except in the case of 1 patient (0.51%) who required a secondary operation to correct web creep. Conclusions This retrospective clinical study of 118 patients with both unilateral and bilateral foot syndactyly revealed that the second web was the most frequently involved. In addition, complete division and tension-free wound closure with a full-thickness skin graft of sufficient size showed good postoperative results. PMID:27896188

  10. The demographics of military children and families.

    PubMed

    Clever, Molly; Segal, David R

    2013-01-01

    Since the advent of the all-volunteer force in the 1970s, marriage, parenthood, and family life have become commonplace in the U.S. military among enlisted personnel and officers alike, and military spouses and children now outnumber service members by a ratio of 1.4 to 1. Reviewing data from the government and from academic and nonacademic research, Molly Clever and David R. Segal find several trends that distinguish today's military families. Compared with civilians, for example, service members marry younger and start families earlier. Because of the requirements of their jobs, they move much more frequently than civilians do, and they are often separated from their families for months at a time. And despite steady increases since the 1970s in the percentage of women who serve, the armed forces are still overwhelmingly male, meaning that the majority of military parents are fathers. Despite these distinguishing trends, Clever and Segal's chief finding is that military families cannot be neatly pigeonholed. Instead, they are a strikingly diverse population with diverse needs. Within the military, demographic groups differ in important ways, and the service branches differ from one another as well. Military families themselves come in many forms, including not only the categories familiar from civilian life--two-parent, single-parent, and so on--but also, unique to the military, dual-service families in which both parents are service members. Moreover, military families' needs change over time as they move through personal and military transitions. Thus the best policies and programs to help military families and children are flexible and adaptable rather than rigidly structured.

  11. [The ecological limits to demographic growth].

    PubMed

    Raffestin, C

    1989-09-01

    Although most individuals are able to conceive of limitations on local resources, the idea that global resources are also potentially exhaustible appears harder to grasp. Not only are soil resources exhaustible, but the total vegetal biomass is ultimately limited by the fixed quantity of energy received from the sun. If the biomass is finite, the human population must also be finite. It would be very difficult to estimate the size of the human population that could be supported on earth because of the very different use of resources by different groups. Roughly 76% of the world's 5 billion persons live in the developing countries, and most of them weigh less heavily on the ecosystem as individuals than do persons living in the developed countries. Despite the difficulties of defining an ecologic limit on growth, the topic has held a certain fascination throughout history and various attempts have been made, most recently in 1972 with "The Limits of Growth". The question of ecological limits to growth is implicitly or explicitly posed in terms of 3 major problems: food resources, the physical capacity of ecosystems, and the territoriality of populations within ecosystems. The problem is made more complex by the fact that the objective of human societies compatible with resources. Soil erosion, inappropriate agricultural practices, pollution, the automobile and waste disposal are examples of technological aspects of society whose costs have not been rationally dealth with and which are not managed in a satisfactory manner in contemporary life. All economic and demographic growth carries with it bioecological degradation. The question of whether the earth is now overpopulated cannot be answered precisely. Nevertheless, the terrestrial ecosystem is in crisis; it is being degraded faster than it can be restored. There are no more free goods; air and water are not free.

  12. Demographics of the European apicultural industry.

    PubMed

    Chauzat, Marie-Pierre; Cauquil, Laura; Roy, Lise; Franco, Stéphanie; Hendrikx, Pascal; Ribière-Chabert, Magali

    2013-01-01

    Over the last few years, many European and North American countries have reported a high rate of disorders (mortality, dwindling and disappearance) affecting honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera). Although beekeeping has become an increasingly professional activity in recent years, the beekeeping industry remains poorly documented in Europe. The European Union Reference Laboratory for Honeybee Health sent a detailed questionnaire to each Member State, in addition to Kosovo and Norway, to determine the demographics and state of their beekeeping industries. Based on data supplied by the National Reference Laboratory for honeybee diseases in each European country, a European database was created to describe the beekeeping industry including the number and types of beekeepers, operation size, industry production, and health (notifiable diseases, mortalities). The total number of beekeepers in Europe was estimated at 620,000. European honey production was evaluated at around 220,000 tons in 2010. The price of honey varied from 1.5 to 40 €/kg depending on the country and on the distribution network. The estimated colony winter mortality varied from 7 to 28% depending on the country and the origin of the data (institutional survey or beekeeping associations). This survey documents the high heterogeneity of the apicultural industry within the European Union. The high proportion of non-professional beekeepers and the small mean number of colonies per beekeeper were the only common characteristics at European level. The tremendous variation in European apicultural industries has implication for any comprehensive epidemiological or economic analysis of the industry. This variability needs to be taken into account for such analysis as well as for future policy development. The industry would be served if beekeeping registration was uniformly implemented across member states. Better information on the package bee and queen production would help in understanding the ability of

  13. The Epidemiology and Demographics of Hip Dysplasia

    PubMed Central

    Loder, Randall T.; Skopelja, Elaine N.

    2011-01-01

    The etiology of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) is unknown. There are many insights, however, from epidemiologic/demographic information. A systematic medical literature review regarding DDH was performed. There is a predominance of left-sided (64.0%) and unilateral disease (63.4%). The incidence per 1000 live births ranges from 0.06 in Africans in Africa to 76.1 in Native Americans. There is significant variability in incidence within each racial group by geographic location. The incidence of clinical neonatal hip instability at birth ranges from 0.4 in Africans to 61.7 in Polish Caucasians. Predictors of DDH are breech presentation, positive family history, and gender (female). Children born premature, with low birth weights, or to multifetal pregnancies are somewhat protected from DDH. Certain HLA A, B, and D types demonstrate an increase in DDH. Chromosome 17q21 is strongly associated with DDH. Ligamentous laxity and abnormalities in collagen metabolism, estrogen metabolism, and pregnancy-associated pelvic instability are well-described associations with DDH. Many studies demonstrate an increase of DDH in the winter, both in the northern and southern hemispheres. Swaddling is strongly associated with DDH. Amniocentesis, premature labor, and massive radiation exposure may increase the risk of DDH. Associated conditions are congenital muscular torticollis and congenital foot deformities. The opposite hip is frequently abnormal when using rigorous radiographic assessments. The role of acetabular dysplasia and adult hip osteoarthritis is complex. Archeological studies demonstrate that the epidemiology of DDH may be changing. PMID:24977057

  14. Demographics of the European Apicultural Industry

    PubMed Central

    Chauzat, Marie-Pierre; Cauquil, Laura; Roy, Lise; Franco, Stéphanie; Hendrikx, Pascal; Ribière-Chabert, Magali

    2013-01-01

    Over the last few years, many European and North American countries have reported a high rate of disorders (mortality, dwindling and disappearance) affecting honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera). Although beekeeping has become an increasingly professional activity in recent years, the beekeeping industry remains poorly documented in Europe. The European Union Reference Laboratory for Honeybee Health sent a detailed questionnaire to each Member State, in addition to Kosovo and Norway, to determine the demographics and state of their beekeeping industries. Based on data supplied by the National Reference Laboratory for honeybee diseases in each European country, a European database was created to describe the beekeeping industry including the number and types of beekeepers, operation size, industry production, and health (notifiable diseases, mortalities). The total number of beekeepers in Europe was estimated at 620 000. European honey production was evaluated at around 220 000 tons in 2010. The price of honey varied from 1.5 to 40 €/kg depending on the country and on the distribution network. The estimated colony winter mortality varied from 7 to 28% depending on the country and the origin of the data (institutional survey or beekeeping associations). This survey documents the high heterogeneity of the apicultural industry within the European Union. The high proportion of non-professional beekeepers and the small mean number of colonies per beekeeper were the only common characteristics at European level. The tremendous variation in European apicultural industries has implication for any comprehensive epidemiological or economic analysis of the industry. This variability needs to be taken into account for such analysis as well as for future policy development. The industry would be served if beekeeping registration was uniformly implemented across member states. Better information on the package bee and queen production would help in understanding the ability of

  15. Expansive Cements and Their Use

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1972-10-01

    made available from the Office, Chief of Research and Development, Army, f- operation of the Concrete Technology Inxormation Aalysis Center (CTIAC...Ths is CTIAC Report No. 8. This report was prepared by Mr. George C. Hoff, Chief Materials Properties V Section of the Concrete iabcraLory, U. S. Army...compensating expansive cement concrete is to minimize cracking in concrete pavements and structures caused by drying shrinkage. The paper reviews the

  16. Femtosecond dynamics of cluster expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Xiaohui; Wang, Xiaoming; Shim, Bonggu; Arefiev, Alexey; Tushentsov, Mikhail; Breizman, Boris; Downer, Mike

    2010-03-01

    Noble gas clusters irradiated by intense ultrafast laser expand quickly and become typical plasma in picosecond time scale. During the expansion, the clustered plasma demonstrates unique optical properties such as strong absorption and positive contribution to the refractive index. Here we studied cluster expansion dynamics by fs-time-resolved refractive index and absorption measurements in cluster gas jets after ionization and heating by an intense pump pulse. The refractive index measured by frequency domain interferometry (FDI) shows the transient positive peak of refractive index due to clustered plasma. By separating it from the negative contribution of the monomer plasma, we are able to determine the cluster fraction. The absorption measured by a delayed probe shows the contribution from clusters of various sizes. The plasma resonances in the cluster explain the enhancement of the absorption in our isothermal expanding cluster model. The cluster size distribution can be determined. A complete understanding of the femtosecond dynamics of cluster expansion is essential in the accurate interpretation and control of laser-cluster experiments such as phase-matched harmonic generation in cluster medium.

  17. Genetic variation reveals large-scale population expansion and migration during the expansion of Bantu-speaking peoples.

    PubMed

    Li, Sen; Schlebusch, Carina; Jakobsson, Mattias

    2014-10-22

    The majority of sub-Saharan Africans today speak a number of closely related languages collectively referred to as 'Bantu' languages. The current distribution of Bantu-speaking populations has been found to largely be a consequence of the movement of people rather than a diffusion of language alone. Linguistic and single marker genetic studies have generated various hypotheses regarding the timing and the routes of the Bantu expansion, but these hypotheses have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we re-analysed microsatellite markers typed for large number of African populations that-owing to their fast mutation rates-capture signatures of recent population history. We confirm the spread of west African people across most of sub-Saharan Africa and estimated the expansion of Bantu-speaking groups, using a Bayesian approach, to around 5600 years ago. We tested four different divergence models for Bantu-speaking populations with a distribution comprising three geographical regions in Africa. We found that the most likely model for the movement of the eastern branch of Bantu-speakers involves migration of Bantu-speaking groups to the east followed by migration to the south. This model, however, is only marginally more likely than other models, which might indicate direct movement from the west and/or significant gene flow with the western Branch of Bantu-speakers. Our study use multi-loci genetic data to explicitly investigate the timing and mode of the Bantu expansion and it demonstrates that west African groups rapidly expanded both in numbers and over a large geographical area, affirming the fact that the Bantu expansion was one of the most dramatic demographic events in human history.

  18. Mitochondrial Variation among the Aymara and the Signatures of Population Expansion in the Central Andes

    PubMed Central

    BATAI, KEN; WILLIAMS, SLOAN R.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The exploitation of marine resources and intensive agriculture led to a marked population increase early in central Andean prehistory. Constant historic and prehistoric population movements also characterize this region. These features undoubtedly affected regional genetic variation, but the exact nature of these effects remains uncertain. Methods Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) hypervariable region I sequence variation in 61 Aymara individuals from La Paz, Bolivia, was analyzed and compared to sequences from 47 other South American populations to test hypotheses of whether increased female effective population size and gene flow influenced the mtDNA variation among central Andean populations. Results The Aymara and Quechua were genetically diverse showing evidence of population expansion and large effective population size, and a demographic expansion model fits the mtDNA variation found among central Andean populations well. Estimated migration rates and the results of AMOVA and multidimensional scaling analysis suggest that female gene flow was also an important factor, influencing genetic variation among the central Andeans as well as lowland populations from western South America. mtDNA variation in south central Andes correlated better with geographic proximity than with language, and fit a population continuity model. Conclusion The mtDNA data suggests that the central Andeans experienced population expansion, most likely because of rapid demographic expansion after introduction of intensive agriculture, but roles of female gene flow need to be further explored. PMID:24449040

  19. 78 FR 36165 - Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 104; (Expansion of Service Area and Expansion of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-06-17

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board Reorganization/Expansion of Foreign-Trade Zone 104; (Expansion of Service Area and Expansion of Zone); Under Alternative Site Framework, Savannah, Georgia Pursuant to its...

  20. Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

    PubMed

    Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

    2012-01-01

    Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

  1. Evaluation of demographic history and neutral parameterization on the performance of FST outlier tests.

    PubMed

    Lotterhos, Katie E; Whitlock, Michael C

    2014-05-01

    F(ST) outlier tests are a potentially powerful way to detect genetic loci under spatially divergent selection. Unfortunately, the extent to which these tests are robust to nonequilibrium demographic histories has been understudied. We developed a landscape genetics simulator to test the effects of isolation by distance (IBD) and range expansion on FST outlier methods. We evaluated the two most commonly used methods for the identification of F(ST) outliers (FDIST2 and BayeScan, which assume samples are evolutionarily independent) and two recent methods (FLK and Bayenv2, which estimate and account for evolutionary nonindependence). Parameterization with a set of neutral loci ('neutral parameterization') always improved the performance of FLK and Bayenv2, while neutral parameterization caused FDIST2 to actually perform worse in the cases of IBD or range expansion. BayeScan was improved when the prior odds on neutrality was increased, regardless of the true odds in the data. On their best performance, however, the widely used methods had high false-positive rates for IBD and range expansion and were outperformed by methods that accounted for evolutionary nonindependence. In addition, default settings in FDIST2 and BayeScan resulted in many false positives suggesting balancing selection. However, all methods did very well if a large set of neutral loci is available to create empirical P-values. We conclude that in species that exhibit IBD or have undergone range expansion, many of the published FST outliers based on FDIST2 and BayeScan are probably false positives, but FLK and Bayenv2 show great promise for accurately identifying loci under spatially divergent selection.

  2. Nonlinear effects on composite laminate thermal expansion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hashin, Z.; Rosen, B. W.; Pipes, R. B.

    1979-01-01

    Analyses of Graphite/Polyimide laminates shown that the thermomechanical strains cannot be separated into mechanical strain and free thermal expansion strain. Elastic properties and thermal expansion coefficients of unidirectional Graphite/Polyimide specimens were measured as a function of temperature to provide inputs for the analysis. The + or - 45 degrees symmetric Graphite/Polyimide laminates were tested to obtain free thermal expansion coefficients and thermal expansion coefficients under various uniaxial loads. The experimental results demonstrated the effects predicted by the analysis, namely dependence of thermal expansion coefficients on load, and anisotropy of thermal expansion under load. The significance of time dependence on thermal expansion was demonstrated by comparison of measured laminate free expansion coefficients with and without 15 day delay at intermediate temperature.

  3. Chemical recombination in an expansion tube

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bakos, Robert J.; Morgan, Richard G.

    1994-01-01

    The note describes the theoretical basis of chemical recombination in an expansion tube which simulates energy, Reynolds number, and stream chemistry at near-orbital velocities. Expansion tubes can satisfy ground-based hypersonic propulsion and aerothermal testing requirements.

  4. A Power Series Expansion and Its Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Hongwei

    2006-01-01

    Using the power series solution of a differential equation and the computation of a parametric integral, two elementary proofs are given for the power series expansion of (arcsin x)[squared], as well as some applications of this expansion.

  5. Demographic situation and development in Nepal.

    PubMed

    Pradhanang, A L

    1983-01-01

    In Nepal economic development has not kept pace with population growth. The government must develop a vigorous dual program to promote economic development and to reduce population growth. Previous efforts to promote economic development, using a macrolevel approach, failed to improve the economic conditions for the majority of Nepal's citizens. The macrolevel approach required large capital outlays and resulted in an influx of foreign investors and the importation of inappropriate technologies from the developed countries. As a result, urbanization and pollution increased, and both the proportion and the absolute number of poor persons increased. A microlevel approach is now being instituted by the government, and an emphasis is being placed on meeting the basic needs of the poor and on promoting economic self-sufficiency. The country has extensive water resources which can be tapped for irrigation purposes. Nepal also has rich mineral deposits which should be exploited in such a way as to ensure that the profits accrue to the Nepalese. The country has an abundance of manpower resources, but there is a dearth of skilled workers. Unemployment, especially in rural areas, is a serious problem, and efforts should be made to either develop the agricultural sector or create new jobs in other sectors. Nepal's demographic problems include rapid population growth, the influx of a large number of migrants from India, and a high rural to urban migration rate. In 1981, the population size was 15 million, the annual growth rate was 2.6%, the crude birth rate was 38.5, the crude death rate was 18.4, and life expectancy was 47.5 years. The government is currently developing plans 1) to promote the development of core sectors of the economy, 2) to provide family planning services for the poor, 3) to meet the basic needs of rural residents in order to stem the flow of migration to urban areas, 4) to mobilize women to play an active role in the country's development and population

  6. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS)

    PubMed Central

    Kishamawe, Coleman; Isingo, Raphael; Mtenga, Baltazar; Zaba, Basia; Todd, Jim; Clark, Benjamin; Changalucha, John; Urassa, Mark

    2015-01-01

    The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS) is part of Kisesa OpenCohort HIV Study located in a rural area of North-Western Tanzania. Since its establishment in 1994, information on pregnancies, births, marriages, migrations and deaths have been monitored and updated between one and three times a year by trained fieldworkers. Other research activities implemented in the cohort include: sero surveys which have been conducted every 2–3 years to collect socioeconomic data, HIV sero status and health knowledge attitude and behaviour in adults aged 15 years or more living in the area; verbal autopsy (VA) interviews conducted to establish cause of death in all deaths encountered in the area; Llnking data collected at health facilities to community-based data; monitoring voluntary counselling and testing (VCT); and assessing uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART). In addition, within the community, qualitative studies have been conducted to address issues linked to HIV stigma, the perception of ART access and adherence. In 2014, the population was over 35 000 individuals. Magu HDSS has contributed to Tanzanian estimates of fertility and mortality, and is a member of the INDEPTH network. Demographic data for Magu HDSS are available via the INDEPTH Network’s Sharing and Accessing Repository (iSHARE) and applications to access HDSS data for collaborative analysis are encouraged. PMID:26403815

  7. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Malaviya, Paritosh; Picado, Albert; Hasker, Epco; Ostyn, Bart; Kansal, Sangeeta; Singh, Rudra Pratap; Shankar, Ravi; Boelaert, Marleen; Sundar, Shyam

    2014-01-01

    The Muzaffarpur-TMRC Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), established in 2007, was developed as an enlargement of the scope of a research collaboration on the project Visceral Leishmaniasis in Bihar, which had been ongoing since 2005. The HDSS is located in a visceral leishmaniasis (VL)-endemic area in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state in India. It is the only HDSS conducting research on VL, which is a vector-borne infectious disease transmitted by female phlebotomine sandflies and is fatal if left untreated. Currently the HDSS serves a population of over 105 000 in 66 villages. The HDSS collects data on vital events including pregnancies, births, deaths, migration and marriages, as well as other socio-economic indicators, at regular intervals. Incident VL cases are identified. The HDSS team is experienced in conducting both qualitative and quantitative studies, sample collection and rapid diagnostic tests in the field. In each village, volunteers connect the HDSS team with the community members. The Muzaffarpur-TMRC HDSS provides opportunities for studies on VL and other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and their interaction with demographic events such as migration. Queries related to research collaborations and data sharing can be sent to Dr Shyam Sundar at [drshyamsundar@hotmail.com]. PMID:25186307

  8. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Rufiji HDSS).

    PubMed

    Mrema, Sigilbert; Kante, Almamy M; Levira, Francis; Mono, Amaniel; Irema, Kahema; de Savigny, Don; Masanja, Honorati

    2015-04-01

    The Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) was established in October 1998 to evaluate the impact on burden of disease of health system reforms based on locally generated data, prioritization, resource allocation and planning for essential health interventions. The Rufiji HDSS collects detailed information on health and survival and provides a framework for population-based health research of relevance to local and national health priorities.In December 2012 the population under surveillance was about 105,503 people, residing in 19,315 households. Monitoring of households and members within households is undertaken in regular 6-month cycles known as 'rounds'. Self reported information is collected on demographic, household, socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Verbal autopsy is conducted using standardized questionnaires, to determine probable causes of death. In conjunction with core HDSS activities, the ongoing studies in Rufiji HDSS focus on maternal and new-born health, evaluation of safety of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) exposure in early pregnancy and the clinical safety of a fixed dose of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PQP) in the community. Findings of studies conducted in Rufiji HDSS can be accessed at www.ihi.or.tz/IHI-Digital-Library.

  9. Health & demographic surveillance system profile: the Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Nigeria (Nahuche HDSS).

    PubMed

    Alabi, Olatunji; Doctor, Henry V; Jumare, Abdulazeez; Sahabi, Nasiru; Abdulwahab, Ahmad; Findley, Sally E; Abubakar, Sani D

    2014-12-01

    The Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) study site, established in 2009 with 137 823 individuals is located in Zamfara State, north western Nigeria. North-West Nigeria is a region with one of the worst maternal and child health indicators in Nigeria. For example, the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey estimated an under-five mortality rate of 185 deaths per 1000 live births for the north-west geo-political zone compared with a national average of 128 deaths per 1000 live births. The site comprises over 100 villages under the leadership of six district heads. Virtually all the residents of the catchment population are Hausa by ethnicity. After a baseline census in 2010, regular update rounds of data collection are conducted every 6 months. Data collection on births, deaths, migration events, pregnancies, marriages and marriage termination events are routinely conducted. Verbal autopsy (VA) data are collected on all deaths reported during routine data collection. Annual update data on antenatal care and household characteristics are also collected. Opportunities for collaborations are available at Nahuche HDSS. The Director of Nahuche HDSS, M.O. Oche at [ochedr@hotmail.com] is the contact person for all forms of collaboration.

  10. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS).

    PubMed

    Kishamawe, Coleman; Isingo, Raphael; Mtenga, Baltazar; Zaba, Basia; Todd, Jim; Clark, Benjamin; Changalucha, John; Urassa, Mark

    2015-12-01

    The Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS) is part of Kisesa OpenCohort HIV Study located in a rural area of North-Western Tanzania. Since its establishment in 1994, information on pregnancies, births, marriages, migrations and deaths have been monitored and updated between one and three times a year by trained fieldworkers. Other research activities implemented in the cohort include: sero surveys which have been conducted every 2-3 years to collect socioeconomic data, HIV sero status and health knowledge attitude and behaviour in adults aged 15 years or more living in the area; verbal autopsy (VA) interviews conducted to establish cause of death in all deaths encountered in the area; Llnking data collected at health facilities to community-based data; monitoring voluntary counselling and testing (VCT); and assessing uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART). In addition, within the community, qualitative studies have been conducted to address issues linked to HIV stigma, the perception of ART access and adherence.In 2014, the population was over 35 000 individuals. Magu HDSS has contributed to Tanzanian estimates of fertility and mortality, and is a member of the INDEPTH network. Demographic data for Magu HDSS are available via the INDEPTH Network's Sharing and Accessing Repository (iSHARE) and applications to access HDSS data for collaborative analysis are encouraged.

  11. 32 CFR 169a.11 - Expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expansions. 169a.11 Section 169a.11 National... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Procedures § 169a.11 Expansions. In cases where expansion of an in-house commercial activity is anticipated, a review of the entire commercial activity, including the proposed...

  12. 32 CFR 169a.11 - Expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Expansions. 169a.11 Section 169a.11 National... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Procedures § 169a.11 Expansions. In cases where expansion of an in-house commercial activity is anticipated, a review of the entire commercial activity, including the proposed...

  13. 32 CFR 169a.11 - Expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Expansions. 169a.11 Section 169a.11 National... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Procedures § 169a.11 Expansions. In cases where expansion of an in-house commercial activity is anticipated, a review of the entire commercial activity, including the proposed...

  14. 32 CFR 169a.11 - Expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Expansions. 169a.11 Section 169a.11 National... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Procedures § 169a.11 Expansions. In cases where expansion of an in-house commercial activity is anticipated, a review of the entire commercial activity, including the proposed...

  15. 32 CFR 169a.11 - Expansions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Expansions. 169a.11 Section 169a.11 National... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Procedures § 169a.11 Expansions. In cases where expansion of an in-house commercial activity is anticipated, a review of the entire commercial activity, including the proposed...

  16. Asynchronous demographic responses to Pleistocene climate change in Eastern Nearctic vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Burbrink, Frank T; Chan, Yvonne L; Myers, Edward A; Ruane, Sara; Smith, Brian Tilston; Hickerson, Michael J

    2016-12-01

    Pleistocene climatic cycles altered species distributions in the Eastern Nearctic of North America, yet the degree of congruent demographic response to the Pleistocene among codistributed taxa remains unknown. We use a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computational approach to test if population sizes across lineages of snakes, lizards, turtles, mammals, birds, salamanders and frogs in this region expanded synchronously to Late Pleistocene climate changes. Expansion occurred in 75% of 74 lineages, and of these, population size trajectories across the community were partially synchronous, with coexpansion found in at least 50% of lineages in each taxonomic group. For those taxa expanding outside of these synchronous pulses, factors related to when they entered the community, ecological thresholds or biotic interactions likely condition their timing of response to Pleistocene climate change. Unified timing of population size change across communities in response to Pleistocene climate cycles is likely rare in North America.

  17. Whole-genome sequencing of giant pandas provides insights into demographic history and local adaptation.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Shancen; Zheng, Pingping; Dong, Shanshan; Zhan, Xiangjiang; Wu, Qi; Guo, Xiaosen; Hu, Yibo; He, Weiming; Zhang, Shanning; Fan, Wei; Zhu, Lifeng; Li, Dong; Zhang, Xuemei; Chen, Quan; Zhang, Hemin; Zhang, Zhihe; Jin, Xuelin; Zhang, Jinguo; Yang, Huanming; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; Wei, Fuwen

    2013-01-01

    The panda lineage dates back to the late Miocene and ultimately leads to only one extant species, the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Although global climate change and anthropogenic disturbances are recognized to shape animal population demography their contribution to panda population dynamics remains largely unknown. We sequenced the whole genomes of 34 pandas at an average 4.7-fold coverage and used this data set together with the previously deep-sequenced panda genome to reconstruct a continuous demographic history of pandas from their origin to the present. We identify two population expansions, two bottlenecks and two divergences. Evidence indicated that, whereas global changes in climate were the primary drivers of population fluctuation for millions of years, human activities likely underlie recent population divergence and serious decline. We identified three distinct panda populations that show genetic adaptation to their environments. However, in all three populations, anthropogenic activities have negatively affected pandas for 3,000 years.

  18. Population demographics, survival, and reporduction: Alaska sea otter research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, D.H.; Bodkin, James L.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Siniff, D.B.; Maldini, Daniela; Calkins, Donald; Atkinson, Shannon; Meehan, Rosa

    2004-01-01

    The fundamental force behind population change is the balance between age-specific survival and reproductive rates. Thus, understanding population demographics is crucial when trying to interpret trends in population change over time. For many species, demographic rates change as the population’s status (i.e., relative to prey resources) varies. Indices of body condition indicative of individual energy reserves can be a useful gauge of population status. Integrated studies designed to measure (1) population trends; (2) current population status; and (3) demographic rates will provide the most complete picture of the factors driving observed population changes. In particular, estimates of age specific survival and reproduction in conjunction with measures of population change can be integrated into population matrix models useful in explaining observed trends. We focus here on the methods used to measure demographic rates in sea otters, and note the importance of comparable methods between studies. Next, we review the current knowledge of the influence of population status on demographic parameters. We end with examples of the power of matrix modeling as a tool to integrate various types of demographic information for detecting otherwise hard to detect changes in demographic parameters.

  19. [Demographic research in Togo. Evaluation of change and prospects].

    PubMed

    Nomenyo, A

    1986-01-01

    It is only since the independance of Togo, in 1958, and after 3 General Census, (1958-59, 1970, 1981), followed immediately by post-census surveys, that a solid basis of statistical data has been available for demographic research. But it is only after 1970, with the creation of the Benin University, and its Demographic Research Unit, the arrival of researchers at the ORSTOM Center of Lome, and of the demographers trained at the IFORD and IDP, that real demographic research has existed. Since then, the ORSTOM has conducted a study on the dynamics of population (fertility, migration, nuptiality, mortality) and its socioeconomic consequences on the agricultural economy of the Plateau Region (1975-1979). It is currently conducting a study in North Togo, comparing demographic data (nuptiality, fertility, infant mortality, family structure) with socioeconomic data (system of land property, women's activity, wives' status in polygamic families), for a better understanding of the influence of demographic reproduction on global social reproduction. The Demographic Research Unit led several studies on fertility in Southeast Togo and Lome. Several other surveys by the department of statistics and the IFORD, by the INRS, as well as student these from diverse schools of Benin University, are studying demo-geography, demo-economy, and demo-sociology. Still, the main problems are the bad quality of the data on fertility and mortality, and the inconsistancy of civil registration. But the interest of the present administration for demographic information may lead to the creation of a "Population Unit" assisting the government, to the definition of a status for researchers, and to the participation of Togo in the new program of Demographic and Health Surveys planned for 35 countries by the Westinghouse Institute for Resource Development.

  20. Space nuclear system expansion joints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitaker, W. D.; Shimazki, T. T.

    1973-01-01

    The engineering, design, and fabrication status of the expansion joint unit (EJU) to be employed in the NaK primary coolant piping loop of the 5-kwe Reactor thermoelectric system are described. Four EJU's are needed in the NaK primary coolant piping loop. The four EJU's which will be identical, utilize bellows as the flexing member, are hermetically sealed, and provide double containment. The bellows are of a nested-formed design, and are to be constructed of 1-ply thickness of 0.010-in. Inconel 718. The EJU's provide a minimum piping load margin of safety of +0.22.

  1. Calculation of Turbulent Expansion Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tollmien, Walter

    1945-01-01

    On the basis of certain formulas recently established by L. Prandtl for the turbulent interchange of momentum in stationary flows, various cases of "free turbulence" - that is, of flows without boundary walls - are treated in the present report. Prandtl puts the apparent shearing stress introduced by the turbulent momentum interchange. This present report deals first with the mixing of an air stream of uniform velocity with the adjacent still air, than with the expansion or diffusion of an air jet in the surrounding air space.

  2. Cosmic growth and expansion conjoined

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linder, Eric V.

    2017-01-01

    Cosmological measurements of both the expansion history and growth history have matured, and the two together provide an important test of general relativity. We consider their joint evolutionary track, showing that this has advantages in distinguishing cosmologies relative to considering them individually or at isolated redshifts. In particular, the joint comparison relaxes the shape degeneracy that makes fσ8(z) curves difficult to separate from the overall growth amplitude. The conjoined method further helps visualization of which combinations of redshift ranges provide the clearest discrimination. We examine standard dark energy cosmologies, modified gravity, and "stuttering" growth, each showing distinct signatures.

  3. Comparative Genetic Structure and Demographic History in Endemic Galápagos Weevils

    PubMed Central

    Stepien, Courtney C.; Sijapati, Manisha; Roque Albelo, Lázaro

    2012-01-01

    The challenge of maintaining genetic diversity within populations can be exacerbated for island endemics if they display population dynamics and behavioral attributes that expose them to genetic drift without the benefits of gene flow. We assess patterns of the genetic structure and demographic history in 27 populations of 9 species of flightless endemic Galápagos weevils from 9 of the islands and 1 winged introduced close relative. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA reveals a significant population structure and moderately variable, though demographically stable, populations for lowland endemics (FST = 0.094–0.541; π: 0.014–0.042; Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026; and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203), in contrast to signals of past contractions and expansions in highland specialists on 2 islands (Mismatch P = 0.003–0.026 and D(Tajima) = −0.601 to 1.203). We interpret this series of variable and highly structured population groups as a system of long-established, independently founded island units, where structuring could be a signal of microallopatric differentiation due to patchy host plant distribution and poor dispersal abilities. We suggest that the severe reduction and subsequent increase of a suitably moist habitat that accompanied past climatic variation could have contributed to the observed population fluctuations in highland specialists. We propose the future exploration of hybridization between the introduced and highland endemic species on Santa Cruz, especially given the expansion of the introduced species into the highlands, the sensitivity to past climatic variation detected in highland populations, and the potentially threatened state of single-island endemics. PMID:22174444

  4. The Opiate Pain Reliever Epidemic among U.S. Arrestees 2000–2010: Regional and Demographic Variations

    PubMed Central

    GOLUB, ANDREW; ELLIOTT, LUTHER; BROWNSTEIN, HENRY H.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing rate of opiate pain reliever (OPR) use is a pressing concern in the United States. This article uses a drug epidemics framework to examine OPR use among arrestees surveyed by the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring program. Results demonstrate regional and demographic variation in use across nine focal cities. High rates of OPR use on the West Coast illustrate the expansion of use from its initial epicenter. By 2010, OPR use had plateaued in all focal cities. Findings suggest directions for ongoing research into pathways to use and vectors of diffusion and for regionally specific interventions sensitive to age and ethnic diversity. PMID:23480209

  5. Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths.

    PubMed

    Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd; Pellmyr, Olle

    2011-01-01

    Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community--Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial

  6. Comparative Phylogeography of a Coevolved Community: Concerted Population Expansions in Joshua Trees and Four Yucca Moths

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd; Pellmyr, Olle

    2011-01-01

    Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial

  7. Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd C.; Pellmyr, Olle

    2011-01-01

    Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial

  8. Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, C.I.; Tank, S.; Godsoe, W.; Levenick, J.; Strand, Espen; Esque, T.; Pellmyr, O.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial

  9. Genetic diversification and demographic history of the cactophilic pseudoscorpion Dinocheirus arizonensis from the Sonoran Desert.

    PubMed

    Pfeiler, Edward; Bitler, Ben G; Castrezana, Sergio; Matzkin, Luciano M; Markow, Therese A

    2009-07-01

    Sequence data from a segment of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene were used to examine phylogenetic relationships, estimate gene flow and infer demographic history of the cactophilic chernetid pseudoscorpion, Dinocheirus arizonensis (Banks), from the Sonoran Desert. Phylogenetic trees resolved two clades of D. arizonensis, one from mainland Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona (clade I) and the other from the Baja California peninsula and southern Arizona (clade II). The two clades were separated by a mean genetic distance (d) of approximately 2.6%. Hierarchical analysis of molecular variance indicated highly significant population structuring in D. arizonensis (overall Phi(ST)=0.860; P<0.0001), with 80% of the genetic variation distributed among the two clades. Most pairwise comparisons of Phi(ST) among populations within each clade, however, were not significant. The results suggest that phoretic dispersal on vagile cactophilic insects such as the neriid cactus fly Odontoloxozus longicornis (Coquillett) provides sufficient gene flow to offset the accumulation of unique haplotypes within each clade of the non-vagile pseudoscorpion. Preliminary results on dispersal capability of O. longicornis were consistent with this conclusion. Tests designed to reconstruct demographic history from sequence data indicated that both clades of D. arizonensis, as well as O. longicornis, have experienced historical population expansions. Potential barriers to gene flow that may have led to genetic isolation and diversification in clades I and II of D. arizonensis are discussed.

  10. Statistical inference on genetic data reveals the complex demographic history of human populations in central Asia.

    PubMed

    Palstra, Friso P; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2015-06-01

    The demographic history of modern humans constitutes a combination of expansions, colonizations, contractions, and remigrations. The advent of large scale genetic data combined with statistically refined methods facilitates inference of this complex history. Here we study the demographic history of two genetically admixed ethnic groups in Central Asia, an area characterized by high levels of genetic diversity and a history of recurrent immigration. Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we infer that the timing of admixture markedly differs between the two groups. Admixture in the traditionally agricultural Tajiks could be dated back to the onset of the Neolithic transition in the region, whereas admixture in Kyrgyz is more recent, and may have involved the westward movement of Turkic peoples. These results are confirmed by a coalescent method that fits an isolation-with-migration model to the genetic data, with both Central Asian groups having received gene flow from the extremities of Eurasia. Interestingly, our analyses also uncover signatures of gene flow from Eastern to Western Eurasia during Paleolithic times. In conclusion, the high genetic diversity currently observed in these two Central Asian peoples most likely reflects the effects of recurrent immigration that likely started before historical times. Conversely, conquests during historical times may have had a relatively limited genetic impact. These results emphasize the need for a better understanding of the genetic consequences of transmission of culture and technological innovations, as well as those of invasions and conquests.

  11. Demographic history and the low genetic diversity in Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae) from Brazilian Neotropical savannas

    PubMed Central

    Collevatti, R G; Telles, M P C; Nabout, J C; Chaves, L J; Soares, T N

    2013-01-01

    Genetic effects of habitat fragmentation may be undetectable because they are generally a recent event in evolutionary time or because of confounding effects such as historical bottlenecks and historical changes in species' distribution. To assess the effects of demographic history on the genetic diversity and population structure in the Neotropical tree Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae), we used coalescence analyses coupled with ecological niche modeling to hindcast its distribution over the last 21 000 years. Twenty-five populations (644 individuals) were sampled and all individuals were genotyped using eight microsatellite loci. All populations presented low allelic richness and genetic diversity. The estimated effective population size was small in all populations and gene flow was negligible among most. We also found a significant signal of demographic reduction in most cases. Genetic differentiation among populations was significantly correlated with geographical distance. Allelic richness showed a spatial cline pattern in relation to the species' paleodistribution 21 kyr BP (thousand years before present), as expected under a range expansion model. Our results show strong evidences that genetic diversity in D. alata is the outcome of the historical changes in species distribution during the late Pleistocene. Because of this historically low effective population size and the low genetic diversity, recent fragmentation of the Cerrado biome may increase population differentiation, causing population decline and compromising long-term persistence. PMID:23591520

  12. High thermal expansion, sealing glass

    DOEpatents

    Brow, R.K.; Kovacic, L.

    1993-11-16

    A glass composition is described for hermetically sealing to high thermal expansion materials such as aluminum alloys, stainless steels, copper, and copper/beryllium alloys, which includes between about 10 and about 25 mole percent Na[sub 2]O, between about 10 and about 25 mole percent K[sub 2]O, between about 5 and about 15 mole percent Al[sub 2]O[sub 3], between about 35 and about 50 mole percent P[sub 2]O[sub 5] and between about 5 and about 15 mole percent of one of PbO, BaO, and mixtures thereof. The composition, which may also include between 0 and about 5 mole percent Fe[sub 2]O[sub 3] and between 0 and about 10 mole percent B[sub 2]O[sub 3], has a thermal expansion coefficient in a range of between about 160 and 210[times]10[sup [minus]7]/C and a dissolution rate in a range of between about 2[times]10[sup [minus]7] and 2[times]10[sup [minus]9]g/cm[sup 2]-min. This composition is suitable to hermetically seal to metallic electrical components which will be subjected to humid environments over an extended period of time.

  13. Imagination as expansion of experience.

    PubMed

    Zittoun, Tania; Cerchia, Frédéric

    2013-09-01

    This paper proposes a developmental view on imagination: from this perspective, imagination can be seen as triggered by some disrupting event, which generates a disjunction from the person's unfolding experience of the "real" world, and as unfolding as a loop, which eventually comes back to the actual experience. Examining recent and classical theorization of imagination in psychology, the paper opposes a deficitary view of imagination to an expansive notion of imagination. The paper explores Piaget, Vygotsky, Harris and Pelaprat & Cole consider: 1) What does provoke a "rupture" or disjunction? 2) What are the psychological processes involved in the imaginary loop? 3) What nourishes such processes? 4) What are the consequences of such imaginary loop, or what does it enable doing? The paper proposes to adopt an expansive view of imagination, as Vygotsky proposed-a perspective that has been under-explored empirically since his seminal work. To stimulate such sociocultural psychology of imagination, two empirical examples are provided, one showing how children make sense of metaphor in an experimental setting, the other showing a young person using a novel met at school as symbolic resource.

  14. High thermal expansion, sealing glass

    DOEpatents

    Brow, Richard K.; Kovacic, Larry

    1993-01-01

    A glass composition for hermetically sealing to high thermal expansion materials such as aluminum alloys, stainless steels, copper, and copper/beryllium alloys, which includes between about 10 and about 25 mole percent Na.sub.2 O, between about 10 and about 25 mole percent K.sub.2 O, between about 5 and about 15 mole percent Al.sub.2 O.sub.3, between about 35 and about 50 mole percent P.sub.2 O.sub.5 and between about 5 and about 15 mole percent of one of PbO, BaO, and mixtures thereof. The composition, which may also include between 0 and about 5 mole percent Fe.sub.2 O.sub.3 and between 0 and about 10 mole percent B.sub.2 O.sub.3, has a thermal expansion coefficient in a range of between about 160 and 210.times.10-7/.degree.C. and a dissolution rate in a range of between about 2.times.10.sup.- 7 and 2.times.10.sup.-9 g/cm.sup.2 -min. This composition is suitable to hermetically seal to metallic electrical components which will be subjected to humid environments over an extended period of time.

  15. Gyrification from constrained cortical expansion

    PubMed Central

    Tallinen, Tuomas; Chung, Jun Young; Biggins, John S.; Mahadevan, L.

    2014-01-01

    The exterior of the mammalian brain—the cerebral cortex—has a conserved layered structure whose thickness varies little across species. However, selection pressures over evolutionary time scales have led to cortices that have a large surface area to volume ratio in some organisms, with the result that the brain is strongly convoluted into sulci and gyri. Here we show that the gyrification can arise as a nonlinear consequence of a simple mechanical instability driven by tangential expansion of the gray matter constrained by the white matter. A physical mimic of the process using a layered swelling gel captures the essence of the mechanism, and numerical simulations of the brain treated as a soft solid lead to the formation of cusped sulci and smooth gyri similar to those in the brain. The resulting gyrification patterns are a function of relative cortical expansion and relative thickness (compared with brain size), and are consistent with observations of a wide range of brains, ranging from smooth to highly convoluted. Furthermore, this dependence on two simple geometric parameters that characterize the brain also allows us to qualitatively explain how variations in these parameters lead to anatomical anomalies in such situations as polymicrogyria, pachygyria, and lissencephalia. PMID:25136099

  16. Gender in Science and Engineering Faculties: Demographic Inertia Revisited.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Nicole R; Poole, Daniel J; Herbers, Joan M

    2015-01-01

    The under-representation of women on faculties of science and engineering is ascribed in part to demographic inertia, which is the lag between retirement of current faculty and future hires. The assumption of demographic inertia implies that, given enough time, gender parity will be achieved. We examine that assumption via a semi-Markov model to predict the future faculty, with simulations that predict the convergence demographic state. Our model shows that existing practices that produce gender gaps in recruitment, retention, and career progression preclude eventual gender parity. Further, we examine sensitivity of the convergence state to current gender gaps to show that all sources of disparity across the entire faculty career must be erased to produce parity: we cannot blame demographic inertia.

  17. Assessing patterns of fish demographics and habitat in stream networks

    EPA Science Inventory

    Effective habitat restoration planning requires correctly anticipating demographic responses to altered habitats. New applications of Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag technology to fish-habitat research have provided critical insights into fish movement, growth, and surv...

  18. Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science.

    PubMed

    Teitelbaum, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.

  19. The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development

    PubMed Central

    Lesthaeghe, Ron

    2014-01-01

    This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the “second demographic transition” since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization. PMID:25453112

  20. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana

    PubMed Central

    Dowling, Russell; Ericson, Bret; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw

    2015-01-01

    Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy) and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth’s Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478) between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model. PMID:26516882

  1. Spatial Associations Between Contaminated Land and Socio Demographics in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Dowling, Russell; Ericson, Bret; Caravanos, Jack; Grigsby, Patrick; Amoyaw-Osei, Yaw

    2015-10-27

    Associations between contaminated land and socio demographics are well documented in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries, however, little is known about the extent of contaminated land and possible demographic correlations. This is an important yet sparsely researched topic with potentially significant public health implications as exposure to pollution remains a leading source of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. In this study, we review the associations between several socio demographic factors (population, population density, unemployment, education, and literacy) and contaminated sites in Ghana. Within this context, both correlation and association intend to show the relationship between two variables, namely contaminated sites and socio demographics. Aggregated district level 2010 census data from Ghana Statistical Service and contaminated site location data from Pure Earth's Toxic Sites Identification Program (TSIP) were spatially evaluated using the number of sites per kilometer squared within districts as the unit of measurement. We found a low to medium positive correlation (ρ range: 0.285 to 0.478) between contaminated sites and the following socio demographics: higher population density, higher unemployment, greater education, and higher literacy rate. These results support previous studies and suggest that several socio demographic factors may be reasonably accurate predictors of contaminated site locations. More research and targeted data collection is needed to better understand these associations with the ultimate goal of developing a predictive model.

  2. Genetic signals of past demographic changes and the history of oak populations in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dodd, R. S.

    2009-04-01

    A retrospective view of species' demographic changes can inform on population stability through times of climatic change and the origins and spatial structure of genetic diversity in contemporary populations. The former provides the means to predict responses to future climatic change, while the latter allows us to infer the ability of populations to buffer the effects of reductions in population size and fragmentation. The approximately 1.8 my of the Pleistocene is believed to have had a significant impact on diversity through high rates of extinction during early glacial cycles and population expansions and contractions during the later cycles. In the Mediterranean basin, early emphasis on taxa with wide latitudinal ranges led to models of refugial sites and subsequent recolonization routes that could explain geographic patterns in genetic diversity, with a trend towards reduced genetic diversity in the north. More recently, the study of strictly Mediterranean taxa has revealed relictual sites that have persisted over very long periods of time, commonly relatively poor in diversity, but populations well differentiated from one site to another. In California, relatively little is known of the population dynamics of plant taxa during the Pleistocene glacial cycles, or to what extent differentiation today is a result of pre-Pleistocene events. For several animal taxa, differentiation between Coastal and Sierran taxa are believed to date to the Pliocene. Major demographic changes resulting in population isolation, bottlenecks, founder events and population expansions leave a genetic signal that can be detected through appropriate genetic markers and analyses. Such signals help to infer whether past climate fluctuations have had important effects on population demographics. Here, I will focus on key oak species of the California mediterranean climate zone. I will explore the likely effects of the last glacial maximum on oak populations using palaeoclimate and niche

  3. Genetic differentiation and demographic history in Drosophila pachea from the Sonoran Desert.

    PubMed

    Pfeiler, Edward; Erez, Tamar; Hurtado, Luis A; Markow, Therese A

    2007-05-01

    Genetic variation at six microsatellite DNA loci and a segment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) locus was used to estimate gene flow, population structure, and demographic history in the cactophilic Drosophila pachea from the Sonoran Desert of North America, a species that shows a strict association with its senita host cactus (genus Lophocereus). For microsatellite analyses, thirteen populations of D. pachea were sampled, five in mainland Mexico and the southwestern USA, and eight on the Baja California (Baja) peninsula, covering essentially the entire range of the species. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of microsatellite data revealed that populations from both the mainland and the Baja peninsula generally showed little structure, although there were a few exceptions, suggesting some local differentiation and restriction of gene flow within both regions. Pairwise comparisons of F(ST) among each of the mainland and Baja populations showed evidence of both panmixia and population subdivision. AMOVA performed on grouped populations from both the mainland and Baja, however, revealed significant partitioning of genetic variation among the two regions, but no partitioning among localities within each region. Bayesian skyline analyses of the COI data set, consisting of four mainland and seven peninsular populations, revealed population expansions dating to the Pleistocene or late Pliocene in D. pachea from both regions, although regional differences were seen in the estimated timing of the expansions and in changes in effective population size over time.

  4. Detecting recent changes in the demographic parameters of drosophilid populations from western and central Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouiges, Axelle; Yassin, Amir; Ikogou, Maya; Lelarge, Clément; Sikoa, Axelle-Rolande; Mona, Stefano; Veuille, Michel

    2013-07-01

    Previous genetic studies showing evidence of past demographic changes in African drosophilids suggested that these populations had strongly responded to Quaternary climate changes. We surveyed nine species of Zaprionus, a drosophilid genus mostly present in Africa, in forests located between southern Senegal and Gabon. The mitochondrial COI gene showed contrasted levels of sequence variation across species. Populations of the only cosmopolitan species of the genus, Z. indianus, and of its closely related sibling species, Z. africanus, are highly polymorphic and appear to have undergone a continuous population expansion beginning about 130,000 years ago. Five less variable species probably underwent a population expansion beginning only about 20,000-30,000 years ago. One of them, Z. taronus, was significantly structured between forest blocks. The last two species were nearly monomorphic, probably due to infection by Wolbachia. These results are similar to those obtained in three species from the melanogaster subgroup, and may be typical of the responses of African drosophilid populations to glacial cycles.

  5. Expansion of Physician Assistant Education.

    PubMed

    Cawley, James F; Eugene Jones, P; Miller, Anthony A; Orcutt, Venetia L

    2016-12-01

    Physician assistant (PA) educational programs were created in the 1960s to prepare a new type of health care practitioner. Physician assistant programs began as experiments in medical education, and later, they proved to be highly successful in preparing capable, flexible, and productive clinicians. The growth of PA educational programs in US medical education-stimulated by grants, public policy, and anticipated shortages of providers-has gone through 3 distinct phases. At present, such programs are in the midst of the third growth spurt that is expected to continue beyond 2020, as a large number of colleges and universities seek to sponsor PA programs and attain accreditation status. Characteristics of these new programs are described, and the implications of the current expansion of PA education are examined.

  6. Asymptotic expansions in nonlinear rotordynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Day, William B.

    1987-01-01

    This paper is an examination of special nonlinearities of the Jeffcott equations in rotordynamics. The immediate application of this analysis is directed toward understanding the excessive vibrations recorded in the LOX pump of the SSME during hot-firing ground testing. Deadband, side force, and rubbing are three possible sources of inducing nonlinearity in the Jeffcott equations. The present analysis initially reduces these problems to the same mathematical description. A special frequency, named the nonlinear natural frequency, is defined and used to develop the solutions of the nonlinear Jeffcott equations as singular asymptotic expansions. This nonlinear natural frequency, which is the ratio of the cross-stiffness and the damping, plays a major role in determining response frequencies.

  7. Ensuring reliability in expansion schemes.

    PubMed

    Kamal-Uddin, Abu Sayed; Williams, Donald Leigh

    2005-01-01

    Existing electricity power supplies must serve, or be adapted to serve, the expansion of hospital buildings. With the existing power supply assets of many hospitals being up to 20 years old, assessing the security and reliability of the power system must be given appropriate priority to avoid unplanned outages due to overloads and equipment failures. It is imperative that adequate contingency is planned for essential and non-essential electricity circuits. This article describes the methodology undertaken, and the subsequent recommendations that were made, when evaluating the security and reliability of electricity power supplies to a number of major London hospitals. The methodology described aligns with the latest issue of NHS Estates HTM 2011 'Primary Electrical Infrastructure Emergency Electrical Services Design Guidance' (to which ERA Technology has contributed).

  8. Population genetic structure of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis at an apparent spatial expansion front.

    PubMed

    Kelly, Rebecca R; Gaines, David; Gilliam, Will F; Brinkerhoff, R Jory

    2014-10-01

    Modeling and empirical evidence suggests that Lyme disease is undergoing geographic expansion from principal foci in the midwestern and northeastern United States. Virginia is at the southern edge of the current expansion zone and has seen dramatic rise in human Lyme disease cases since 2007, potentially owing to a recent increase in vector abundance. Ixodes scapularis is known throughout the eastern US but behavioral or physiological variation between northern and southern lineages might lead northern-variant ticks to more frequently parasitize humans. We hypothesized that recent spatial and numerical increase in Lyme disease cases is associated with demographic and/or spatial expansion of I. scapularis and that signals of these phenomena would be detectable and discernable in population genetic signals. In summer and fall 2011, we collected nymphal I. scapularis by drag sampling and adult I. scapularis from deer carcasses at hunting check stations at nine sites arranged along an east-west transect through central Virginia. We analyzed 16S mtDNA sequences data from up to 24 I. scapularis individuals collected from each site and detected a total of 24 haplotypes containing 29 segregating sites. We found no evidence for population genetic structure among these sites but we did find strong signals of both demographic and spatial expansion throughout our study system. We found two haplotypes (one individual each) representing a lineage of ticks that is only found in the southeastern United States, with the remaining individuals representing a less genetically diverse clade that is typical of the northern United States, but that has also been detected in the American South. Taken together, these results lead us to conclude that I. scapularis populations in Virginia are expanding and that this expansion may account for recent observed increases in Lyme disease.

  9. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Turney, Chris S. M.; Rohde, David; White, Gentry

    2015-01-01

    A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka). The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka) coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts). We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka) restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka), resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed. PMID:26083101

  10. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia.

    PubMed

    Williams, Alan N; Ulm, Sean; Turney, Chris S M; Rohde, David; White, Gentry

    2015-01-01

    A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka). The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka) coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts). We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka) restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka), resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed.

  11. Pressurized electrolysis stack with thermal expansion capability

    DOEpatents

    Bourgeois, Richard Scott

    2015-07-14

    The present techniques provide systems and methods for mounting an electrolyzer stack in an outer shell so as to allow for differential thermal expansion of the electrolyzer stack and shell. Generally, an electrolyzer stack may be formed from a material with a high coefficient of thermal expansion, while the shell may be formed from a material having a lower coefficient of thermal expansion. The differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion may lead to damage to the electrolyzer stack as the shell may restrain the thermal expansion of the electrolyzer stack. To allow for the differences in thermal expansion, the electrolyzer stack may be mounted within the shell leaving a space between the electrolyzer stack and shell. The space between the electrolyzer stack and the shell may be filled with a non-conductive fluid to further equalize pressure inside and outside of the electrolyzer stack.

  12. Hydration and Thermal Expansion in Anatase Nanoparticles

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, He; Li, Qiang; Ren, Yang; Fan, Longlong; Chen, Jun; Deng, Jinxia; Xing, Xianran

    2016-06-06

    A tunable thermal expansion is reported in nanosized anatase by taking advantage of surface hydration. The coefficient of thermal expansion of 4 nm TiO2 along a-axis is negative with a hydrated surface and is positive without a hydrated surface. High-energy synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function analysis combined with ab initio calculations on the specific hydrated surface are carried out to reveal the local structure distortion that is responsible for the unusual negative thermal expansion.

  13. Hydration and Thermal Expansion in Anatase Nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Zhu, He; Li, Qiang; Ren, Yang; Fan, Longlong; Chen, Jun; Deng, Jinxia; Xing, Xianran

    2016-08-01

    A tunable thermal expansion is reported in nanosized anatase by taking advantage of surface hydration. The coefficient of thermal expansion of 4 nm TiO2 along a-axis is negative with a hydrated surface and is positive without a hydrated surface. High-energy synchrotron X-ray pair distribution function analysis combined with ab initio calculations on the specific hydrated surface are carried out to reveal the local structure distortion that is responsible for the unusual negative thermal expansion.

  14. Coalition formation in transmission expansion planning

    SciTech Connect

    Contreras, J.; Wu, F.F. |

    1999-08-01

    The study of a decentralized coalition formation scheme in a specific power systems transmission expansion scenario is the purpose of this paper. The authors define first who are the agents in the expansion game and provide a decentralized coalition scheme based on Bilateral Shapley values. Finally, they allocate the total costs of expansion amongst the agents, based on the coalition history, and they compare their method with a centralized scheme.

  15. Assessing population viability while accounting for demographic and environmental uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Oppel, Steffen; Hilton, Geoff; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fenton, Calvin; Daley, James; Gray, Gerard; Vickery, Juliet; Gibbons, David

    2014-07-01

    Predicting the future trend and viability of populations is an essential task in ecology. Because many populations respond to changing environments, uncertainty surrounding environmental responses must be incorporated into population assessments. However, understanding the effects of environmental variation on population dynamics requires information on several important demographic parameters that are often difficult to estimate. Integrated population models facilitate the integration of time series data on population size and all existing demographic information from a species, allowing the estimation of demographic parameters for which limited or no empirical data exist. Although these models are ideal for assessments of population viability, they have so far not included environmental uncertainty. We incorporated environmental variation in an integrated population model to account for both demographic and environmental uncertainty in an assessment of population viability. In addition, we used this model to estimate true juvenile survival, an important demographic parameter for population dynamics that is difficult to estimate empirically. We applied this model to assess the past and future population trend of a rare island endemic songbird, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi, which is threatened by volcanic activity. Montserrat Orioles experienced lower survival in years with volcanic ashfall, causing periodic population declines that were compensated by higher seasonal fecundity in years with high pre-breeding season rainfall. Due to the inclusion of both demographic and environmental uncertainty in the model, the estimated population growth rate in the immediate future was highly imprecise (95% credible interval 0.844-1.105), and the probability of extinction after three generations (in the year 2028) was low (2.1%). This projection demonstrates that accounting for both demographic and environmental sources of uncertainty provides a more realistic assessment

  16. A worldwide survey of human male demographic history based on Y-SNP and Y-STR data from the HGDP-CEPH populations.

    PubMed

    Shi, Wentao; Ayub, Qasim; Vermeulen, Mark; Shao, Rong-guang; Zuniga, Sofia; van der Gaag, Kristiaan; de Knijff, Peter; Kayser, Manfred; Xue, Yali; Tyler-Smith, Chris

    2010-02-01

    We have investigated human male demographic history using 590 males from 51 populations in the Human Genome Diversity Project - Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain worldwide panel, typed with 37 Y-chromosomal Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms and 65 Y-chromosomal Short Tandem Repeats and analyzed with the program Bayesian Analysis of Trees With Internal Node Generation. The general patterns we observe show a gradient from the oldest population time to the most recent common ancestors (TMRCAs) and expansion times together with the largest effective population sizes in Africa, to the youngest times and smallest effective population sizes in the Americas. These parameters are significantly negatively correlated with distance from East Africa, and the patterns are consistent with most other studies of human variation and history. In contrast, growth rate showed a weaker correlation in the opposite direction. Y-lineage diversity and TMRCA also decrease with distance from East Africa, supporting a model of expansion with serial founder events starting from this source. A number of individual populations diverge from these general patterns, including previously documented examples such as recent expansions of the Yoruba in Africa, Basques in Europe, and Yakut in Northern Asia. However, some unexpected demographic histories were also found, including low growth rates in the Hazara and Kalash from Pakistan and recent expansion of the Mozabites in North Africa.

  17. Cranial strains and malocclusion VIII: palatal expansion.

    PubMed

    James, Gavin; Strokon, Dennis

    2009-01-01

    Current techniques for palatal expansion are reviewed. Pre-treatment asymmetry of the palate and maxillary arch is shown to be almost universal and is not randomly distributed. The use of a symmetrical expansion appliance does not necessarily result in a symmetrical arch. ALF appliances provide a means of achieving orthopedic, symmetrical expansion of the palate by using very light force. This is demonstrated in seven subjects. It is argued that rapid palatal expansion is an inappropriate, potentially iatrogenic procedure which no longer has a place in the orthodontic armamentarium.

  18. Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989-2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

  19. Validity of demographically corrected norms for the WAIS-III.

    PubMed

    Strong, Carrie-Ann H; Donders, Jacobus; van Dyke, Sarah

    2005-08-01

    The diagnostic validity of new demographically corrected WAIS-III norms was investigated using a sample of 100 patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and a matched control group from the standardization sample. Demographically corrected norms were compared to traditional age-corrected norms. Although education accounted for incremental variance in WAIS-III factor scores in patients with TBI, above and beyond the effects of injury severity, the demographically corrected norms did not yield statistically different diagnostic classification of individuals with moderate-severe TBI than the traditional norms. In participants with relatively low levels of educational attainment, sensitivity to length of coma was less for demographically corrected norms then for traditional age-corrected norms. Nevertheless, when using a discrepancy between Verbal Comprehension and Processing speed, diagnostic accuracy rates were again similar for both sets of norms. It is concluded that the demographically corrected WAIS-III norms do not offer a clear advantage or disadvantage compared to traditional age-corrected norms in the assessment of patients with TBI who are Caucasian and who have at least a middle school level of education.

  20. Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses.

    PubMed

    Hope, Andrew G; Ho, Simon Y W; Malaney, Jason L; Cook, Joseph A; Talbot, Sandra L

    2014-09-01

    Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

  1. Demographic Determinants of Disaster Preparedness Behaviors Amongst Tehran Inhabitants, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Najafi, Mehdi; Ardalan, Ali; Akbarisari, Ali; Noorbala, Ahmad Ali; Jabbari, Hossain

    2015-01-01

    Background: Tehran is vulnerable to natural hazards, especially earthquakes. Disaster preparedness behaviors (DPB) are measures that can mitigate the adverse consequences of disasters. Demographic factors affect DPB, however, the role of some of these factors is not still clear. By understanding these effects, disaster specialists could design interventions toward specific demographics. In the present study, we aimed to investigate demographic determinants of DPB. Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted in August 2014. The target population included inhabitants of Tehran who were 18 years or older. A total of 1250 participants were selected randomly and interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Results: Results of our study showed that monthly income level, previous disaster experience, residential district and occupation are demographic factors that influence DPB significantly. However, disaster preparedness was not affected by gender, educational level, number of household members, home type, home ownership and being the head of household. Conclusion: To promote DPB in Tehran, disaster specialists should focus on improving DPB in low-income and unemployed people, and individuals who live in high risk districts, especially in those who have not experienced disasters. Key words: Disaster, Preparedness behavior, Demographic determinants.     PMID:26767148

  2. Accounting for rate variation among lineages in comparative demographic analyses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hope, Andrew G.; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Malaney, Jason L.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

    2014-01-01

    Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed-clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline-plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.

  3. Demographic faultlines: a meta-analysis of the literature.

    PubMed

    Thatcher, Sherry M B; Patel, Pankaj C

    2011-11-01

    We propose and test a theoretical model focusing on antecedents and consequences of demographic faultlines. We also posit contingencies that affect overall team dynamics in the context of demographic faultlines, such as the study setting and performance measurement. Using meta-analysis structural equation modeling with a final data set consisting of 311 data points (i.e., k [predictor-criterion relationships]), from 39 studies that were obtained from 36 papers with a total sample size of 24,388 individuals in 4,366 teams, we found that sex and racial diversity increased demographic faultline strength more than did diversity on the attributes of functional background, educational background, age, and tenure. Demographic faultline strength was found to increase task and relationship conflict as well as decrease team cohesion. Furthermore, although demographic faultline strength decreased both team satisfaction and team performance, there was a stronger decrease in team performance than in team satisfaction. The strength of these relationships increased when the study was conducted in the lab rather than in the field. We describe the theoretical and practical implications of these findings for advancing the study of faultlines.

  4. Magnetic Clouds: Global and local expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulisano, Adriana; Demoulin, Pascal; Soledad Nakwacki, Ms Maria; Dasso, Sergio; Emilia Ruiz, Maria

    Magnetic clouds (MCs) are magnetized objects forming flux ropes, which are expelled from the Sun and travel through the heliosphere, transporting important amounts of energy, mass, magnetic flux, and magnetic helicity from the Sun to the interplanetary medium. To know the detailed dynamical evolution of MCs is very useful to improve the knowledge of solar processes, for instance from linking a transient solar source with its interplanetary manifestation. During its travel, and mainly due to the decrease of the total (magnetic plus thermal) pressure in the surrounding solar wind, MCs are objects in expansion. However, the detailed magnetic structure and the dynamical evolution of MCs is still not fully known. Even the identification of their boundaries is an open question in some cases. In a previous work we have shown that from onepoint observations of the bulk velocity profile, it is possible to infer the 'local' expansion rate for a given MC, i.e., the expansion rate while the MC is observed by the spacecraft. By the another hand, and from the comparison of sizes for different MCs observed at different heliodistances, it is possible to quantify an 'average' expansion law (i.e., a global expansion). In this work, in order to study the variability of the 'local' expansion with respect to the 'average' expansion of MCs during their travel, we present results and a comparison between both approaches. We make a detailed study of one-point observations (magnetic and bulk velocity) using a set of MCs and we get the 'local' expansion rate for each studied event. We compare the obtained 'local' expansion rates with the 'average' expansion law, and also with the expansion rates for the stationary solar wind.

  5. Inferring Population Decline and Expansion From Microsatellite Data: A Simulation-Based Evaluation of the Msvar Method

    PubMed Central

    Girod, Christophe; Vitalis, Renaud; Leblois, Raphaël; Fréville, Hélène

    2011-01-01

    Reconstructing the demographic history of populations is a central issue in evolutionary biology. Using likelihood-based methods coupled with Monte Carlo simulations, it is now possible to reconstruct past changes in population size from genetic data. Using simulated data sets under various demographic scenarios, we evaluate the statistical performance of Msvar, a full-likelihood Bayesian method that infers past demographic change from microsatellite data. Our simulation tests show that Msvar is very efficient at detecting population declines and expansions, provided the event is neither too weak nor too recent. We further show that Msvar outperforms two moment-based methods (the M-ratio test and Bottleneck) for detecting population size changes, whatever the time and the severity of the event. The same trend emerges from a compilation of empirical studies. The latest version of Msvar provides estimates of the current and the ancestral population size and the time since the population started changing in size. We show that, in the absence of prior knowledge, Msvar provides little information on the mutation rate, which results in biased estimates and/or wide credibility intervals for each of the demographic parameters. However, scaling the population size parameters with the mutation rate and scaling the time with current population size, as coalescent theory requires, significantly improves the quality of the estimates for contraction but not for expansion scenarios. Finally, our results suggest that Msvar is robust to moderate departures from a strict stepwise mutation model. PMID:21385729

  6. Memory-endowed US cities and their demographic interactions.

    PubMed

    Hernando, A; Hernando, R; Plastino, A; Zambrano, E

    2015-01-06

    A quantitative understanding of cities' demographic dynamics is becoming a potentially useful tool for planning sustainable growth. The concomitant theory should reveal details of the cities' past and also of its interaction with nearby urban conglomerates for providing a reasonably complete picture. Using the exhaustive database of the Census Bureau in a time window of 170 years, we exhibit here empirical evidence for time and space correlations in the demographic dynamics of US counties, with a characteristic memory time of 25 years and typical distances of interaction of 200 km. These correlations are much larger than those observed in a European country (Spain), indicating more coherent evolution in US cities. We also measure the resilience of US cities to historical events, finding a demographical post-traumatic amnesia after wars (such as the American Civil War) or economic crisis (such as the 1929 Stock Market Crash).

  7. [Demographic indices of the aging and longevity in Yakutia].

    PubMed

    Tatarinova, O V; Nikitin, Iu P

    2008-01-01

    The basic demographic indices of the aging and longevity of population in Yakutia have been analyzed. The Sakha Republic (Yakutia) is one of the biggest regions of Russia, which occupies 18% of the territory. Aging of population is shown as one of the main tendencies in the modern demographic development in the Republic and reflection of the world process. In spite of the extreme living conditions, Yakutia was considered to be one of the longevity centres in the country. Regarding this, the basic demographic longevity's indices for recent years were investigated in details. The decrease tendencies of longevity level have been determined in the following: among men and women, urban and rural inhabitants and in the Republic, in the whole.

  8. Memory-endowed US cities and their demographic interactions

    PubMed Central

    Hernando, A.; Hernando, R.; Plastino, A.; Zambrano, E.

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative understanding of cities' demographic dynamics is becoming a potentially useful tool for planning sustainable growth. The concomitant theory should reveal details of the cities' past and also of its interaction with nearby urban conglomerates for providing a reasonably complete picture. Using the exhaustive database of the Census Bureau in a time window of 170 years, we exhibit here empirical evidence for time and space correlations in the demographic dynamics of US counties, with a characteristic memory time of 25 years and typical distances of interaction of 200 km. These correlations are much larger than those observed in a European country (Spain), indicating more coherent evolution in US cities. We also measure the resilience of US cities to historical events, finding a demographical post-traumatic amnesia after wars (such as the American Civil War) or economic crisis (such as the 1929 Stock Market Crash). PMID:25551139

  9. A New Mechanism for Tracking Publicly Available Study Volunteer Demographics

    PubMed Central

    Zuckerman, Rachael; Getz, Kenneth; Kaitin, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    The importance of gathering and monitoring aggregate demographic data on the annual population of study volunteers in FDA-regulated clinical trials is widely acknowledged. To date, no formal mechanism exists to capture this information. The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development identified and tested a publicly available source of information on clinical trial participant data, NDA Reviews stored in the FDA’s drugs@FDA database, to determine its accuracy, reliability, and feasibility. Thirty-seven new drug applications approved between 2006 and 2008 were evaluated and compared with published sources of demographic data. The authors conclude that the approach described here—NDA review extraction—provides reasonably reliable and conservative estimates of study volunteer demographics and can serve as a useful baseline until Clinicaltrials.gov or other, more complete, public sources become available. PMID:21625297

  10. A New Mechanism for Tracking Publicly Available Study Volunteer Demographics.

    PubMed

    Zuckerman, Rachael; Getz, Kenneth; Kaitin, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    The importance of gathering and monitoring aggregate demographic data on the annual population of study volunteers in FDA-regulated clinical trials is widely acknowledged. To date, no formal mechanism exists to capture this information. The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development identified and tested a publicly available source of information on clinical trial participant data, NDA Reviews stored in the FDA's drugs@FDA database, to determine its accuracy, reliability, and feasibility. Thirty-seven new drug applications approved between 2006 and 2008 were evaluated and compared with published sources of demographic data. The authors conclude that the approach described here-NDA review extraction-provides reasonably reliable and conservative estimates of study volunteer demographics and can serve as a useful baseline until Clinicaltrials.gov or other, more complete, public sources become available.

  11. Survey of western Canadian veterinary practices: A demographic profile.

    PubMed

    Jelinski, Murray D; Barth, Katrina K

    2015-12-01

    A mixed-mode survey was used to describe the demographics of the veterinary profession in western Canada and to assess the demand for veterinary practitioners. Data were received from 655 practices (response rate = 52%), providing demographic data on 1636 individual practitioners. Most (60%) respondents self-classified their practices as exclusively small animal, while 25% and 4% were mixed animal or exclusively food animal practices, respectively. Across all practices, 77% of practitioners' time was devoted to small animals and the average mixed animal practice devoted 60% of practitioners' time to small animals. After accounting for practices that did not respond, there were ~300 full-time equivalent (FTE) vacant positions for veterinary associates; however, only 12% of practices were in urgent need of hiring an associate veterinarian. This report informs both prospective employees and employers on the state of the marketplace for veterinary associates, and provides an overview of the demographics of the veterinary profession in western Canada.

  12. Analysis of Performance Variation Using Query Expansion.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alemayehu, Nega

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of information retrieval performance evaluation focuses on a case study using a statistical repeated measures analysis of variance for testing the significance of factors, such as retrieval method and topic in retrieval performance variation. Analyses of the effect of query expansion on document ranking confirm that expansion affects…

  13. A reduced volumetric expansion factor plot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, R. C.

    1979-01-01

    A reduced volumetric expansion factor plot was constructed for simple fluids which is suitable for engineering computations in heat transfer. Volumetric expansion factors were found useful in correlating heat transfer data over a wide range of operating conditions including liquids, gases and the near critical region.

  14. A reduced volumetric expansion factor plot

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, R. C.

    1979-01-01

    A reduced volumetric expansion factor plot has been constructed for simple fluids which is suitable for engineering computations in heat transfer. Volumetric expansion factors have been found useful in correlating heat transfer data over a wide range of operating conditions including liquids, gases and the near critical region.

  15. Unitary expansion of the time evolution operator

    SciTech Connect

    Zagury, N.; Aragao, A.; Casanova, J.; Solano, E.

    2010-10-15

    We propose an expansion of the unitary evolution operator, associated with a given Schroedinger equation, in terms of a finite product of explicit unitary operators. In this manner, this unitary expansion can be truncated at the desired level of approximation, as shown in the given examples.

  16. Multipole expansion method for supernova neutrino oscillations

    SciTech Connect

    Duan, Huaiyu; Shalgar, Shashank E-mail: shashankshalgar@unm.edu

    2014-10-01

    We demonstrate a multipole expansion method to calculate collective neutrino oscillations in supernovae using the neutrino bulb model. We show that it is much more efficient to solve multi-angle neutrino oscillations in multipole basis than in angle basis. The multipole expansion method also provides interesting insights into multi-angle calculations that were accomplished previously in angle basis.

  17. 45 CFR 800.104 - Phased expansion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Phased expansion. 800.104 Section 800.104 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT MULTI-STATE PLAN PROGRAM Multi-State Plan Program Issuer Requirements § 800.104 Phased expansion. (a) Phase-in. OPM...

  18. Expansion techniques for collisionless stellar dynamical simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Meiron, Yohai; Li, Baile; Holley-Bockelmann, Kelly; Spurzem, Rainer

    2014-09-10

    We present graphics processing unit (GPU) implementations of two fast force calculation methods based on series expansions of the Poisson equation. One method is the self-consistent field (SCF) method, which is a Fourier-like expansion of the density field in some basis set; the other method is the multipole expansion (MEX) method, which is a Taylor-like expansion of the Green's function. MEX, which has been advocated in the past, has not gained as much popularity as SCF. Both are particle-field methods and optimized for collisionless galactic dynamics, but while SCF is a 'pure' expansion, MEX is an expansion in just the angular part; thus, MEX is capable of capturing radial structure easily, while SCF needs a large number of radial terms. We show that despite the expansion bias, these methods are more accurate than direct techniques for the same number of particles. The performance of our GPU code, which we call ETICS, is profiled and compared to a CPU implementation. On the tested GPU hardware, a full force calculation for one million particles took ∼0.1 s (depending on expansion cutoff), making simulations with as many as 10{sup 8} particles fast for a comparatively small number of nodes.

  19. 45 CFR 800.104 - Phased expansion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Phased expansion. 800.104 Section 800.104 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT MULTI-STATE PLAN PROGRAM Multi-State Plan Program Issuer Requirements § 800.104 Phased expansion. (a) Phase-in. OPM...

  20. Finnish Higher Education Expansion and Regional Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saarivirta, Toni

    2010-01-01

    This paper concentrates on the expansion of Finnish higher education between the 1960s and 1970s, exposes its background in the light of the policy decisions that were made, compares the unique features of this expansion with those of certain other countries, discusses the impact of the controlled "top down" governance of higher…

  1. Earnings Returns to the British Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Devereux, Paul J.; Fan, Wen

    2011-01-01

    We study the effects of the large expansion in British educational attainment that took place for cohorts born between 1970 and 1975. Using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, we find that the expansion caused men to increase education by about a year on average and gain about 8% higher wages; women obtained a slightly greater increase in education…

  2. The heavy quark expansion of QCD

    SciTech Connect

    Falk, A.F.

    1997-06-01

    These lectures contain an elementary introduction to heavy quark symmetry and the heavy quark expansion. Applications such as the expansion of heavy meson decay constants and the treatment of inclusive and exclusive semileptonic B decays are included. Heavy hadron production via nonperturbative fragmentation processes is also discussed. 54 refs., 7 figs.

  3. Expansive Learning as Production of Community

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morck, Line Lerche

    2010-01-01

    This article contributes a framework for analyzing learning as an expansive process in which persons come to partly transcend marginalization. Expansive learning is a kind of learning that partly transcends marginalization through changed participation and recognition by others of participants in their changed communities. This article draws on…

  4. 76 FR 19746 - Approval for Subzone Expansion and Expansion of Manufacturing Authority; Foreign-Trade Subzone...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-08

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board Approval for Subzone Expansion and Expansion of Manufacturing Authority; Foreign... Jefferson County Riverport Authority, grantee of Foreign-Trade Zone 29, has requested an expansion of...

  5. 76 FR 75870 - Approval for Subzone Expansion and Expansion of Manufacturing Authority; Foreign-Trade Subzone...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-05

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board Approval for Subzone Expansion and Expansion of Manufacturing Authority; Foreign... Louisiana Port Commission, grantee of Foreign- Trade Zone 124, has requested an expansion of the subzone...

  6. [Demographic aging in the old and new German states].

    PubMed

    Dinkel, R H; Lebok, U

    1997-01-01

    "One of the social phenomena receiving most attention worldwide is the one of ¿demographic aging'. The term describes a relative change in the age structure of a population, which cannot be explained by natural criteria alone. The thesis that a population is aging or getting younger is dependent on a measurement concept for demographic aging. This essay will introduce the Billeter-measure as such a concept. With its help, an analysis of regional difference between the old and new German states (Lander) is undertaken." (EXCERPT)

  7. Demographic, employment and development trends: the need for integrated planning.

    PubMed

    Farooq, G M; Mackellar, F L

    1990-01-01

    "The authors contend that problems associated with rapid demographic growth in developing countries have to be tackled through comprehensive population and human resource planning. Linkages between population and development are especially close in the area of labour markets. Following a discussion of the impacts of demographic factors on labour supply, labour demand and migration, the article proposes a practical framework in which population and human resource development plans may be operationalised. The concluding section briefly discusses the emerging area of population policy formulation and implementation."

  8. Low-thermal expansion infrared glass ceramics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Philip

    2009-05-01

    L2 Tech, Inc. is in development of an innovative infrared-transparent glass ceramic material with low-thermal expansion (<0.5 ppm/°C) and high thermal-shock resistance to be used as windows and domes for high speed flight. The material is an inorganic, non-porous glass ceramic, characterized by crystalline phases of evenly distributed nano-crystals in a residual glass phase. The major crystalline phase is zirconium tungstate (ZrW2O8) which has Negative Thermal Expansion (NTE). The glass phase is the infrared-transparent germanate glass which has positive thermal expansion (PTE). Then glass ceramic material has a balanced thermal expansion of near zero. The crystal structure is cubic and the thermal expansion of the glass ceramic is isotropic or equal in all directions.

  9. Differential ventricular expansion in hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    McAllister, J P; Chovan, P; Steiner, C P; Johnson, M J; Ayzman, I; Wood, A S; Tkach, J A; Hahn, J F; Luciano, M G

    1998-12-01

    In the large canine model of acquired obstructive hydrocephalus that we have developed recently, computer-assisted 3-dimensional morphometry has been performed on T1-weighted Spin Echo MRI images from adult dogs before and after the induction of hydrocephalus. To date, 7 hydrocephalic animals have been analyzed that survived 7-83 days (median = 54) after receiving injections of cyanoacrylate glue into the anterior fourth ventricle. Measurements were obtained from lateral, 3rd, and 4th ventricles. The volumes of the left and right lateral ventricles were symmetrical before and after induction. Mean lateral ventricle volume increased 424% from a baseline of 0.63 cc to a post-induction value of 3.30 cc (p < 0.01 with unpaired t-test). In contrast, the 3rd ventricle expanded 187% from a mean of 0.15 cc to 0.43 cc (p < 0.05). The combined volume of the lateral and 3rd ventricles increased 369% from a mean of 0.78 cc to 3.69 cc (p < 0.01). Evans' ratios, which are used routinely in the clinical setting, were also obtained from linear measurements of the lateral ventricle width divided by brain width at the level of the foramen of Monro. These values exhibited only a 94% increase from mean baseline ratios of 0.17 to post-induction ratios of 0.33 (p < 0.05). These findings indicate that in mechanically-induced obstructive hydrocephalus the relative expansion of the lateral ventricles is greater than that of the 3rd ventricle. In addition, volumetric measurements of the lateral and 3rd ventricles suggest that the extent of ventriculomegaly is 3-4 times greater than estimated by Evans' ratios.

  10. Comparative phylogeography and demographic history of the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor): implications for late Quaternary history of the taiga species in Eurasia.

    PubMed

    Fedorov, V B; Goropashnaya, A V; Boeskorov, G G; Cook, J A

    2008-01-01

    The association between demographic history, genealogy and geographical distribution of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b haplotypes was studied in the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor), a species that is closely associated with the boreal forest of the Eurasian taiga zone from Scandinavia to the Pacific coast. Except for a major phylogeographic discontinuity (0.9% nucleotide divergence) in southeastern Siberia, only shallow regional genetic structure was detected across northern Eurasia. Genetic signs of demographic expansions imply that successive range contractions and expansions on different spatial scales represented the primary historical events that shaped geographical patterns of genetic variation. Comparison of phylogeographic structure across a taxonomically diverse array of other species that are ecologically associated with the taiga forest revealed similar patterns and identified two general aspects. First, the major south-north phylogeographic discontinuity observed in five out of six species studied in southeastern Siberia and the Far East implies vicariant separation in two different refugial areas. The limited distribution range of the southeastern lineages provides no evidence of the importance of the putative southeastern refugial area for postglacial colonization of northern Eurasia by boreal forest species. Second, the lack of phylogeographic structure associated with significant reciprocal monophyly and genetic signatures of demographic expansion in all nine boreal forest animal species studied to date across most of northern Eurasia imply contraction of each species to a single refugial area during the late Pleistocene followed by range expansion on a continental scale. Similar phylogeographic patterns observed in this taxonomically diverse set of organisms with different life histories and dispersal potentials reflect the historical dynamics of their shared environment, the taiga forest in northern Eurasia.

  11. Phonemic diversity supports a serial founder effect model of language expansion from Africa.

    PubMed

    Atkinson, Quentin D

    2011-04-15

    Human genetic and phenotypic diversity declines with distance from Africa, as predicted by a serial founder effect in which successive population bottlenecks during range expansion progressively reduce diversity, underpinning support for an African origin of modern humans. Recent work suggests that a similar founder effect may operate on human culture and language. Here I show that the number of phonemes used in a global sample of 504 languages is also clinal and fits a serial founder-effect model of expansion from an inferred origin in Africa. This result, which is not explained by more recent demographic history, local language diversity, or statistical non-independence within language families, points to parallel mechanisms shaping genetic and linguistic diversity and supports an African origin of modern human languages.

  12. Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Efird, Cathy M.

    The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

  13. Do Online Learning Patterns Exhibit Regional and Demographic Differences?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsieh, Tsui-Chuan; Yang, Chyan

    2012-01-01

    This paper used a multi-level latent class model to evaluate whether online learning patterns exhibit regional differences and demographics. This study discovered that the Internet learning pattern consists of five segments, and the region of Taiwan is divided into two segments and further found that both the user and the regional segments are…

  14. Tobacco Sales in Community Pharmacies: Remote Decisions and Demographic Targets

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Cory M.; Peterson, N. Andrew; Schneider, John E.; Smith, Brian J.; Armstead, Theresa L.

    2010-01-01

    This study applied multilevel modeling procedures with data from 678 community pharmacies and 382 residential census tracts in a Midwestern U.S. state to determine if two sets of variables: retail type (e.g., remotely owned, independently owned) and population demographics of the tracts in which outlets were located were associated with retail…

  15. [Demographic trends in Thailand (1970-1981) and their consequences].

    PubMed

    Laine, J

    1985-01-01

    A review of demographic trends in Thailand between 1970 and 1981 and its consequences is presented. Separate consideration is given to urbanization and migration. The negative consequences of population growth discussed include the decrease in available arable land, poverty, and unemployment. Consideration is also given to the health status of the population, including public health, family planning, and malnutrition.

  16. Demographic matrix model for swallow-wort (Vincetoxicum spp.)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Demographic matrix modeling of plant populations can be a powerful tool to identify key life stage transitions that contribute the most to population growth of an invasive plant and hence should be targeted for disruption (weak links) by biological control and/or other control tactics. Therefore, t...

  17. Adolescent Health in Hong Kong: Disturbing Socio-Demographic Correlates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwan, Y. K.; Ip, W. C.

    2009-01-01

    Relationships between self-assessed health status and socio-demographic variables were examined among 4,502 Chinese adolescent secondary school students in Hong Kong, a modern society with traditional Chinese ethno-cultural origin. Health status was self-rated in four aspects: overall health, physical health, mental health, and health effects on…

  18. [The demographic situation of Austria in the year 1987].

    PubMed

    Findl, P

    1989-01-01

    Information is presented on demographic trends in Austria during 1987. Some comparative data for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered include births, fertility rates, population reproduction, deaths, life expectancy, marriages, divorces, international migration, refugees, naturalizations, changes in population size, age structure, and the dependency burden.

  19. Demographic Trends that will Shape Future Housing Demand

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrison, Peter A.

    1977-01-01

    Important demographic trends in the United States include 1) the population's changing age profile, 2) the tendency for young people to remain single longer, 3) the widening mortality differential between the sexes, and 4) reversal of migration trends. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands,…

  20. Demographic Trends Relevant to Education in Nonmetro America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, David L.

    Demographic and socioeconomic conditions and changes in rural communities provide the context for education programs in such areas. Although these conditions have improved since the 1950s, they have worsened since 1980, affecting the human resource base of rural economics. Cyclical and structural changes affect--and are affected--by: (1) reduced…

  1. Nonwhites and the Demographic Imperative in Social Welfare Spending.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ozawa, Martha N.

    1986-01-01

    Warns that the nation's ability to support its growing number of elderly depends on its success in developing the human capital of non-white children. Presents future demographic trends, discusses limitations in the welfare approach, and offers an alternative approach to developing human capital in low-income children. (Author/ABB)

  2. Demographic marginalization, social integration, and adolescents' educational success.

    PubMed

    Benner, Aprile D; Wang, Yijie

    2014-10-01

    Links between schools' demographic composition and students' achievement have been a major policy interest for decades. Using a racially/ethnically diverse sample from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 6,302; 54% females; 53% White, 21% African American, 15% Latino, 8% Asian American, 2% other race/ethnicity), we examined the associations between demographic marginalization, students' later social integration (loneliness at school, school attachment), and educational performance and attainment. Adolescents who were socioeconomically marginalized at school [i.e., having <15% same-socioeconomic status (SES) peers] had lower cumulative grade point averages across high school and lower educational attainment. A similar disadvantage was observed among students who were both socioeconomically and racially/ethnically marginalized at school (i.e., having <15% same-SES peers and <15% same-racial/ethnic peers). Indirect effects were also observed, such that demographic marginalization was linked to poorer school attachment, and poorer school attachment, in turn, was related to poorer academic performance. These results highlight the educational barriers associated with demographic marginalization and suggest potential targets for future intervention efforts.

  3. Secondary Schools in a New Millennium: Demographic Certainties, Social Realities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgkinson, Harold

    This report examines the demographic trends, social realities, and complexities that can potentially transform American secondary schools. It describes the nature of diversity in the world and nation and between and within states and school districts. Such information can be useful in selecting successful strategies for implementing changes in the…

  4. Demographic Paradoxes in the Los Angeles Voting Rights Case.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, William A. V.; Morrison, Peter A.

    1991-01-01

    How technical demographic analysis can inform and confuse judicial considerations of voting rights principles is illustrated in a review of a 1990 case brought against Los Angeles County (California). A postscripted article considers whether the court involved should rely on after-census estimates for redistricting. (SLD)

  5. Socio-demographic structure of Sydney's perimetropolitan region.

    PubMed

    Murphy, P A; Burnley, I H

    1993-11-01

    "The paper conceptualizes processes driving change in perimetropolitan regions then, using Sydney [Australia] as a case study, analyses population growth rates and internal migration patterns between 1981 and 1991. Next, a set of social and demographic variables derived from the 1986 Census is analysed to derive four key dimensions of socio-spatial structure, namely: disadvantage, rurality, socio-economic status and retirement."

  6. Leisure Lifestyles: Segmentation by Interests, Needs, Demographics, and Television Viewing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenberg, Marshall G.; Frank, Ronald E.

    1983-01-01

    Using their own 1978 national survey sample, the authors describe the social and demographic characteristics, psychological needs, and television viewing behaviors of persons who exhibit each of 14 patterns of leisure activities. The patterns were isolated through factor analysis and clustering techniques. (Author/RM)

  7. Details from the Dashboard: Charter School Race/Ethnicity Demographics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This "Details from the Dashboard" report examines race/ethnicity breakouts for public charter schools and traditional public schools at the state and the school district level. The data in this report indicate that in the large majority of states, the race/ethnicity student demographics of charter schools are almost identical to those of the…

  8. Asians in New York City: A Demographic Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steingasser, Jean; And Others

    This demographic survey provides the following information on Asian Americans: (1) states with the highest Asian American population; (2) ethnic breakdown among Asians; (3) Asian immigration history and legislation affecting it; (4) individual immigration histories of Asian Americans in New York City (New York), including the Chinese, Japanese,…

  9. Doctoral Accounting Candidates: A Profile of Demographics and Perceptions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Backmon, Ida Robinson

    1998-01-01

    Presents information on minority doctoral students in accounting, drawing on surveys completed by 47 such students. Outlines demographic characteristics, and identifies respondents' rankings of costs and benefits of pursuing a doctorate in accounting. Most respondents were professionally certified and were interested in academic careers. (SLD)

  10. Demographic and Behavioral Characteristics of Osher Lifelong Learning Institute Members

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Robert Jack; Brady, E. Michael; Thaxton, Steven P.

    2016-01-01

    The number of lifelong learning institutes (LLIs) is growing across the United States and it is important for educational planners and administrators to know about current demographic and behavioral characteristics of program participants. A 14-question survey was administered via SurveyMonkey to members who use computers in eight Osher Lifelong…

  11. The Demographic Crisis and Global Migration - Selected Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frątczak, Ewa Zofia

    2016-01-01

    Currently the world is undergoing a serious demographic shift, characterised by slowing population growth in developed countries. However, the population in certain less-developed regions of the world is still increasing. According to UN data, as of 2015, (World...2015), 244 million people (or 3.3% of the global population) lived outside their country of birth. While most of these migrants travel abroad looking for better economic and social conditions, there are also those forced to move by political crises, revolutions and war. Such migration is being experienced currently in Europe, a continent which is thus going through both a demographic crisis related to the low fertility rate and population ageing, and a migration crisis. Global migrations link up inseparably with demographic transformation processes taking place globally and resulting in the changing tempo of population growth. Attracting and discouraging migration factors are changing at the same time, as is the scale and range of global migration, and with these also the global consequences. The focus of work addressed in this paper is on global population, the demographic transformation and the role of global migrations, as well as the range and scale of international migration, and selected aspects of global migrations including participation in the global labour market, the scale of monetary transfers (remittances) and the place of global migration in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Transforming...2015) and the Europe of two crises (Domeny 2016).

  12. The Demographic Challenge: New Patterns for a New Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Workforce Economics Trends, 1998

    1998-01-01

    The world population is changing: world population is growing rapidly, more people live in urban areas, and the share of the world's population living in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations is shrinking. The U.S. population is becoming older and more diverse. Across the United States, demographic changes are…

  13. Demographic Factors Affecting Internet Using Purposes of High School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kilic, Abdullah Faruk; Güzeller, Cem Oktay

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed at determining the impact of demographic factors on the Internet usage purposes of high school students. The population of the study consisted of students between 9th and 12th grades from the Anatolian high schools, science high schools, social sciences high schools, sports high schools and fine arts high schools in Turkey. The…

  14. Learning Approaches, Demographic Factors to Predict Academic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Tuan Minh

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to predict academic outcome in math and math-related subjects using learning approaches and demographic factors. Design/Methodology/Approach: ASSIST was used as the instrumentation to measure learning approaches. The study was conducted in the International University of Vietnam with 616 participants. An…

  15. Homeschool Progress Report 2009: Academic Achievement and Demographics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Brian D.

    2009-01-01

    In 2007, the Home School Legal Defense Association commissioned Dr. Brian D. Ray of the National Home Education Research Institute to conduct a nationwide study of homeschooling in America. The study's purpose was to develop a current picture of homeschool students and their families--capturing their demographics and educational background--and…

  16. Child and Family: Demographic Developments in the OECD Countries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le Bras, Herve

    This study of early childhood and the family in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) employs two statistical approaches to the problem of providing an accurate picture of modern conditions of family life. A classical demographic approach to population studies is initially used, then is critiqued,…

  17. Demographic, Educational, Employment, and Professional Characteristics of Counseling Psychologists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Munley, Patrick H.; Pate, William E., II; Duncan, Lonnie E.

    2008-01-01

    Counseling psychologist members of Division 17 (n = 1,792) were compared with counseling psychologist nonmembers of Division 17 within the American Psychological Association (APA; n = 6,917) with respect to demographic, educational, and professional characteristics reported in the 2003 APA Directory Survey. Employment setting and work activities…

  18. Are We Ready for the Approaching Demographic Tsunami?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vargas, Bolgen; Conlon, Jill E.

    2011-01-01

    For those at the high school and college levels who have been tracking the demographic changes occurring throughout the United States during the past few decades, it came as no surprise when recent U.S. Census statistics revealed that the 2010 kindergarten class is 25% Hispanic, up from 19% in 2000, and 5% Asian, up from 4% in 2000. The class is…

  19. Demographic Shifts and Educational Challenges in the 21st Century.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Green, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Examines U.S. public schools' changing demographics and their effects on barriers to equal opportunity for racial and ethnic minorities. Disabilities of poverty, inadequate income, denied access to shared American values, and collective discrimination obstruct these groups' high educational attainment. Equity plans and monitoring must eliminate…

  20. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): Participant Activity, Demographics, and Satisfaction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shrader, Sara; Wu, Maryalice; Owens, Dawn; Santa Ana, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines activity patterns, participant demographics, and levels of satisfaction in multiple MOOC offerings at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign from August 2012-December 2013. Using the following guiding questions: "Who are MOOC participants, how do they participate, and were they able to get what they wanted out of…

  1. The Demographic Composition of Cyclical Variations in Employment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Kim B.; Summers, Lawrence H.

    This paper analyzes the demographic patterns of cyclical swings in the labor market by decomposing movement in employment into changes in unemployment and participation. The focus is on the interrelations among participation, employment and unemployment, with particular emphasis on the participation rate as a prime determinant of the labor market…

  2. A Demographic and Career Profile of Canadian Research University Librarians

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, David

    2007-01-01

    This paper provides an up-to-date career and demographic profile of Canadian research university librarians by comparing newly derived data from the 8Rs Study: The "Future of Human Resources in Canadian Libraries", with corresponding information from the author's 2006 survey: "The Scholarship of Canadian Research University…

  3. Demographic Changes and School Finance and Organization: Their Interrelationships.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzman, Martin T.

    The implications of imperfectly predictable demographic changes on public schools in the 1980's provide the focus of this paper. Major changes that are relevant to the educational sector are briefly described raising the questions whether these changes are temporary aberrations or indicative of future trends. The effects of changes in enrollment…

  4. France: demographic change and family policy since World War II.

    PubMed

    Roussel, L; Thery, I

    1988-09-01

    Major demographic trends and changes in family policy in France since World War II are analyzed, with a focus on fertility and marriage patterns (including divorce). The effects of political and economic factors on family policy and legislation since 1945 are also discussed. Data are from official and other published sources.

  5. Animal Cruelty Motivations: Assessing Demographic and Situational Influences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hensley, Christopher; Tallichet, Suzanne E.

    2005-01-01

    Few studies have examined childhood and adolescent animal cruelty motives. Using a sample of 261 inmates surveyed at both medium and maximum security prisons in a southern state, the present study examined the impact of demographic attributes and situational factors relating specifically to a range of animal cruelty motivations. Almost half of the…

  6. Predicting Psychiatric Rehabilitation Outcome Using Demographic Characteristics: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anthony, William A.; Buell, Gregory J.

    1974-01-01

    Replication was undertaken of a recent study conducted by Buell and Anthony which had found that recidivism and posthospital employment could be predicted by a single demographic variable, number of previous hospitalizations and employment history, respectively. Results of the replication were consistent for posthospital employment but not for…

  7. The Russian Market of University Services: Social and Demographic Aspects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bydanova, Elizaveta; Mushketova, Natalia; Rouet, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of demographic, social, economic and international aspects on the market of university services in Russia. It also reminds readers briefly of the evolution of the Russian higher education system during the last 20 years and considers some consequences of the current public policy and…

  8. Demographic Variables and Fathers' Involvement with Their Child with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bragiel, Józefa; Kaniok, Przemyslaw E.

    2014-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine whether fathers' involvement with their child with disabilities is correlated with some of the demographic variables. Data were collected from 243 Polish fathers who were married and who had at least one child with disabilities. The issue was assessed by two measures: a Questionnaire and the Father…

  9. Segmenting Demographically Homogeneous Radio Audiences: An Exploratory Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Planchon, John M.

    The possibility that the benefits sought by radio listeners could be used to further define demographically homogeneous audiences for marketing purposes was investigated by surveying a segment of college undergraduate listeners. Twenty-five interviews were conducted to determine where, why, what time of day, and to what station an individual…

  10. Demographic Correlates and Factor Structure of the Family Environment Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boake, Corwin; Salmon, Paul G.

    1983-01-01

    Factor analyzed the Family Environment Scale (FES) subscale scores of 204 families and correlated them with family demographic characteristics. The obtained factor structure showed two major factors similar to "control" and "acceptance-rejection" dimensions in previous research. Results support the FES as part of multimethod…

  11. Economic and Demographic Factors Impacting Placement of Students with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurth, Jennifer A.; Mastergeorge, Ann M.; Paschall, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    Educational placement of students with autism is often associated with child factors, such as IQ and communication skills. However, variability in placement patterns across states suggests that other factors are at play. This study used hierarchical cluster analysis techniques to identify demographic, economic, and educational covariates…

  12. Predicting Audience Demographics of Web Sites Using Local Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Iljoo

    2011-01-01

    The size and dynamism of the Web poses challenges for all its stakeholders, which include producers/consumers of content, and advertisers who want to place advertisements next to relevant content. A critical piece of information for the stakeholders is the demographics of the consumers who are likely to visit a given web site. However, predicting…

  13. Morphokinetics of human blastocyst expansion in vitro.

    PubMed

    Huang, T T F; Chinn, K; Kosasa, T; Ahn, H J; Kessel, B

    2016-12-01

    Time-lapse imaging offers new tools to study dynamic processes of development such as blastocyst formation and expansion. This study quantitatively describes expansion in human blastocysts from donated oocytes. Measurements of hourly interval rate of changes in the blastocoel cross-sectional area revealed oscillatory pulses having 2-4 h periodicities. Two types of oscillations were distinguished. An E-Type ('expansion') had positive peak and positive or slightly negative trough interval rate of change values, and these characterized most of the expansion period. A C-type ('contraction') represented an infrequent but notable contraction of the blastocoel with loss of blastocoel fluid. These were reversible within 2-4 h in both groups and followed by further expansion. Therefore, oscillatory pulses are an intrinsic property of the trophectoderm. The zona seems to variably dampen the amplitude of these pulses. Expansion kinetics were compared between blastocysts with known positive (KID+) or negative (KID-) implantation outcomes. Regression analysis suggests that expansion may be relatively restricted in KID- embryos blastulating at relatively later times. These data extend observations in other mammalian systems and may provide information useful for clinical selection algorithms.

  14. Giant negative thermal expansion in magnetic nanocrystals.

    PubMed

    Zheng, X G; Kubozono, H; Yamada, H; Kato, K; Ishiwata, Y; Xu, C N

    2008-12-01

    Most solids expand when they are heated, but a property known as negative thermal expansion has been observed in a number of materials, including the oxide ZrW2O8 (ref. 1) and the framework material ZnxCd1-x(CN)2 (refs 2,3). This unusual behaviour can be understood in terms of low-energy phonons, while the colossal values of both positive and negative thermal expansion recently observed in another framework material, Ag3[Co(CN)6], have been explained in terms of the geometric flexibility of its metal-cyanide-metal linkages. Thermal expansion can also be stopped in some magnetic transition metal alloys below their magnetic ordering temperature, a phenomenon known as the Invar effect, and the possibility of exploiting materials with tuneable positive or negative thermal expansion in industrial applications has led to intense interest in both the Invar effect and negative thermal expansion. Here we report the results of thermal expansion experiments on three magnetic nanocrystals-CuO, MnF2 and NiO-and find evidence for negative thermal expansion in both CuO and MnF2 below their magnetic ordering temperatures, but not in NiO. Larger particles of CuO and MnF2 also show prominent magnetostriction (that is, they change shape in response to an applied magnetic field), which results in significantly reduced thermal expansion below their magnetic ordering temperatures; this behaviour is not observed in NiO. We propose that the negative thermal expansion effect in CuO (which is four times larger than that observed in ZrW2O8) and MnF2 is a general property of nanoparticles in which there is strong coupling between magnetism and the crystal lattice.

  15. Mitochondrial phylogeography of moose (Alces alces): Late Pleistocene divergence and population expansion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hundertmark, Kris J.; Shields, Gerald F.; Udina, Irina G.; Bowyer, R. Terry; Danilkin, Alexei A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

    2002-01-01

    We examined phylogeographic relationships of moose (Alces alces) worldwide to test the proposed existence of two geographic races and to infer the timing and extent of demographic processes underpinning the expansion of this species across the Northern Hemisphere in the late Pleistocene. Sequence variation within the left hypervariable domain of the control region occurred at low or moderate levels worldwide and was structured geographically. Partitioning of genetic variance among regions indicated that isolation by distance was the primary agent for differentiation of moose populations but does not support the existence of distinct eastern and western races. Levels of genetic variation and structure of phylogenetic trees identify Asia as the origin of all extant mitochondrial lineages. A recent coalescence is indicated, with the most recent common ancestor dating to the last ice age. Moose have undergone two episodes of population expansion, likely corresponding to the final interstade of the most recent ice age and the onset of the current interglacial. Timing of expansion for the population in the Yakutia–Manchuria region of eastern Asia indicates that it is one of the oldest populations of moose and may represent the source of founders of extant populations in North America, which were colonized within the last 15,000 years. Our data suggest an extended period of low population size or a severe bottleneck prior to the divergence and expansion of extant lineages and a recent, less-severe bottleneck among European lineages. Climate change during the last ice age, acting through contraction and expansion of moose habitat and the flooding of the Bering land bridge, undoubtedly was a key factor influencing the divergence and expansion of moose populations.

  16. Hematopoietic Stem Cell Expansion and Gene Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Watts, Korashon Lynn; Adair, Jennifer; Kiem, Hans-Peter

    2012-01-01

    Hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) gene therapy remains a highly attractive treatment option for many disorders including hematologic conditions, immunodeficiencies including HIV/AIDS, and other genetic disorders like lysosomal storage diseases, among others. In this review, we discuss the successes, side effects, and limitations of current gene therapy protocols. In addition, we describe the opportunities presented by implementing ex vivo expansion of gene-modified HSCs, as well as summarize the most promising ex vivo expansion techniques currently available. We conclude by discussing how some of the current limitations of HSC gene therapy could be overcome by combining novel HSC expansion strategies with gene therapy. PMID:21999373

  17. Concentric ring flywheel without expansion separators

    DOEpatents

    Kuklo, Thomas C.

    1999-01-01

    A concentric ring flywheel wherein the adjacent rings are configured to eliminate the need for differential expansion separators between the adjacent rings. This is accomplished by forming a circumferential step on an outer surface of an inner concentric ring and forming a matching circumferential step on the inner surface of an adjacent outer concentric ring. During operation the circumferential steps allow the rings to differentially expand due to the difference in the radius of the rings without the formation of gaps therebetween, thereby eliminating the need for expansion separators to take up the gaps formed by differential expansion.

  18. Concentric ring flywheel without expansion separators

    DOEpatents

    Kuklo, T.C.

    1999-08-24

    A concentric ring flywheel wherein the adjacent rings are configured to eliminate the need for differential expansion separators between the adjacent rings. This is accomplished by forming a circumferential step on an outer surface of an inner concentric ring and forming a matching circumferential step on the inner surface of an adjacent outer concentric ring. During operation the circumferential steps allow the rings to differentially expand due to the difference in the radius of the rings without the formation of gaps therebetween, thereby eliminating the need for expansion separators to take up the gaps formed by differential expansion. 3 figs.

  19. Thermal expansion properties of composite materials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. R.; Kural, M. H.; Mackey, G. B.

    1981-01-01

    Thermal expansion data for several composite materials, including generic epoxy resins, various graphite, boron, and glass fibers, and unidirectional and woven fabric composites in an epoxy matrix, were compiled. A discussion of the design, material, environmental, and fabrication properties affecting thermal expansion behavior is presented. Test methods and their accuracy are discussed. Analytical approaches to predict laminate coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) based on lamination theory and micromechanics are also included. A discussion is included of methods of tuning a laminate to obtain a near-zero CTE for space applications.

  20. Demographic Norms for Metropolitan, Nonmetropolitan and Rural Counties. Mental Health Demographic Profile System Working Paper No. 24, July 1975.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldsmith, Harold F.; And Others

    Utilizing 1970 census statistics for metropolitan, nonmetropolitan, rural, and "all" counties, this paper presents the selected percentile values for the 130 statistics (social indicators) in the Mental Health Demographic Profile System (the MHDPS is a system which allows the delineation of residential areas with common social rank, life…

  1. Improvement of Expansive Soils Using Chemical Stabilizers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikizler, S. B.; Senol, A.; Khosrowshahi, S. K.; Hatipoğlu, M.

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of two chemical stabilizers on the swelling potential of expansive soil. A high plasticity sodium bentonite was used as the expansive soil. The additive materials including fly ash (FA) and lime (L) were evaluated as potential stabilizers to decrease the swelling pressure of bentonite. Depending on the type of additive materials, they were blended with bentonite in different percentages to assess the optimum state and approch the maximum swell pressure reduction. According to the results of swell pressure test, both fly ash and lime reduce the swelling potential of bentonite but the maximum improvement occurs using bentonite-lime mixture while the swelling pressure reduction approaches to 49%. The results reveal a significant reduction of swelling potential of expansive soil using chemical stabilizers. Keywords: Expansive soil; swell pressure; chemical stabilization; fly ash; lime

  2. Adapted polynomial chaos expansion for failure detection

    SciTech Connect

    Paffrath, M. Wever, U.

    2007-09-10

    In this paper, we consider two methods of computation of failure probabilities by adapted polynomial chaos expansions. The performance of the two methods is demonstrated by a predator-prey model and a chemical reaction problem.

  3. Adapted polynomial chaos expansion for failure detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paffrath, M.; Wever, U.

    2007-09-01

    In this paper, we consider two methods of computation of failure probabilities by adapted polynomial chaos expansions. The performance of the two methods is demonstrated by a predator-prey model and a chemical reaction problem.

  4. Low expansion superalloy with improved toughness

    DOEpatents

    Smith, Darrell F.; Stein, Larry I.; Hwang, Il S.

    1995-01-01

    A high strength, low coefficient of thermal expansion superalloy exhibiting improved toughness over a broad temperature range down to about 4.degree. K. The composition is adapted for use with wrought superconducting sheathing.

  5. The thermal expansion behavior of unalloyed plutonium

    SciTech Connect

    Schonfeld, F.W.; Tate, R.E.

    1996-09-01

    Information and data concerning the thermal expansion characteristics of the solid and liquid phases of unalloyed plutonium have been collected from published and unpublished sources and evaluated, and are presented to provide increased availability in compact form.

  6. Collisional and collisionless expansion of Yukawa balls.

    PubMed

    Piel, Alexander; Goree, John A

    2013-12-01

    The expansion of Yukawa balls is studied by means of molecular dynamics simulations of collisionless and collisional situations. High computation speed was achieved by using the parallel computing power of graphics processing units. When the radius of the Yukawa ball is large compared to the shielding length, the expansion process starts with the blow-off of the outermost layer. A rarefactive wave subsequently propagates radially inward at the speed of longitudinal phonons. This mechanism is fundamentally different from Coulomb explosions, which employ a self-similar expansion of the entire system. In the collisionless limit, the outer layers carry away most of the available energy. The simulations are compared with analytical estimates. In the collisional case, the expansion process can be described by a nonlinear diffusion equation that is a special case of the porous medium equation.

  7. Thermal Expansion of AuIn2

    SciTech Connect

    Saw, C K; Siekhaus, W J

    2004-07-12

    The thermal expansion of AuIn{sub 2} gold is of great interest in soldering technology. Indium containing solders have been used to make gold wire interconnects at low soldering temperature and over time, AuIn{sub 2} is formed between the gold wire and the solder due to the high heat of formation and the high inter-metallic diffusion of indium. Hence, the thermal expansion of AuIn{sub 2} alloy in comparison with that of the gold wire and the indium-containing solder is critical in determining the integrity of the connection. We present the results of x-ray diffraction measurement of the coefficient of linear expansion of AuIn{sub 2} as well as the bulk expansion and density changes over the temperature range of 30 to 500 C.

  8. Low expansion superalloy with improved toughness

    DOEpatents

    Smith, D.F.; Stein, L.I.; Hwang, I.S.

    1995-06-20

    A high strength, low coefficient of thermal expansion superalloy exhibiting improved toughness over a broad temperature range down to about 4 K is disclosed. The composition is adapted for use with wrought superconducting sheathing.

  9. Losing confidence in medicine in an era of medical expansion?

    PubMed

    Zheng, Hui

    2015-07-01

    Has the expansion of the medical field inspired more or less confidence in medicine among the American public? This study investigates how confidence in medicine has changed over the past three decades, whether this trend is uniform across social groups and which aspects of medicine are most affected. Data are from repeated cross-sectional U.S. General Social Surveys spanning the years 1973-2008, including the 2002 Doctors and Patients Module and the 1998 Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module. Americans' confidence in medicine has declined continuously over the past three decades, and the extent of this decline did not vary by gender, age group, cohort, or income level. Analysis of differences across socio-demographic groups suggests that confidence in medicine is related to trust in doctors' ethics but different from obedience to doctors' authority. Therefore, the downward trend in confidence in medicine may suggest a decline in public trust in doctors' ethics, but not necessarily a decline in obedience to doctors' authority.

  10. Investigation of the Demographic and Selective Forces Shaping the Nucleotide Diversity of Genes Involved in Nod Factor Signaling in Medicago truncatula

    PubMed Central

    De Mita, Stéphane; Ronfort, Joëlle; McKhann, Heather I.; Poncet, Charles; El Malki, Redouane; Bataillon, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    Symbiotic nitrogen-fixing rhizobia are able to trigger root deformation in their Fabaceae host plants, allowing their intracellular accommodation. They do so by delivering molecules called Nod factors. We analyzed the patterns of nucleotide polymorphism of five genes controlling early Nod factor perception and signaling in the Fabaceae Medicago truncatula to understand the selective forces shaping the evolution of these genes. We used 30 M. truncatula genotypes sampled in a genetically homogeneous region of the species distribution range. We first sequenced 24 independent loci and detected a genomewide departure from the hypothesis of neutrality and demographic equilibrium that suggests a population expansion. These data were used to estimate parameters of a simple demographic model incorporating population expansion. The selective neutrality of genes controlling Nod factor perception was then examined using a combination of two complementary neutrality tests, Tajima's D and Fay and Wu's standardized H. The joint distribution of D and H expected under neutrality was obtained under the fitted population expansion model. Only the gene DMI1, which is expected to regulate the downstream signal, shows a pattern consistent with a putative selective event. In contrast, the receptor-encoding genes NFP and NORK show no significant signatures of selection. Among the genes that we analyzed, only DMI1 should be viewed as a candidate for adaptation in the recent history of M. truncatula. PMID:18073426

  11. 78 FR 73208 - Underwriters Laboratories, Inc.: Application for Expansion

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-12-05

    ... Occupational Safety and Health Administration Underwriters Laboratories, Inc.: Application for Expansion AGENCY... announces the application of Underwriters Laboratories, Inc., for expansion of its recognition as a... Application for Expansion The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is providing notice...

  12. Reconstructing Demography and Social Behavior During the Neolithic Expansion from Genomic Diversity Across Island Southeast Asia.

    PubMed

    Vallée, François; Luciani, Aurélien; Cox, Murray P

    2016-12-01

    Archaeology, linguistics, and increasingly genetics are clarifying how populations moved from mainland Asia, through Island Southeast Asia, and out into the Pacific during the farming revolution. Yet key features of this process remain poorly understood, particularly how social behaviors intersected with demographic drivers to create the patterns of genomic diversity observed across Island Southeast Asia today. Such questions are ripe for computer modeling. Here, we construct an agent-based model to simulate human mobility across Island Southeast Asia from the Neolithic period to the present, with a special focus on interactions between individuals with Asian, Papuan, and mixed Asian-Papuan ancestry. Incorporating key features of the region, including its complex geography (islands and sea), demographic drivers (fecundity and migration), and social behaviors (marriage preferences), the model simultaneously tracks a full suite of genomic markers (autosomes, X chromosome, mitochondrial DNA, and Y chromosome). Using Bayesian inference, model parameters were determined that produce simulations that closely resemble the admixture profiles of 2299 individuals from 84 populations across Island Southeast Asia. The results highlight that greater propensity to migrate and elevated birth rates are related drivers behind the expansion of individuals with Asian ancestry relative to individuals with Papuan ancestry, that offspring preferentially resulted from marriages between Asian women and Papuan men, and that in contrast to current thinking, individuals with Asian ancestry were likely distributed across large parts of western Island Southeast Asia before the Neolithic expansion.

  13. Reconstructing Demography and Social Behavior During the Neolithic Expansion from Genomic Diversity Across Island Southeast Asia

    PubMed Central

    Vallée, François; Luciani, Aurélien; Cox, Murray P.

    2016-01-01

    Archaeology, linguistics, and increasingly genetics are clarifying how populations moved from mainland Asia, through Island Southeast Asia, and out into the Pacific during the farming revolution. Yet key features of this process remain poorly understood, particularly how social behaviors intersected with demographic drivers to create the patterns of genomic diversity observed across Island Southeast Asia today. Such questions are ripe for computer modeling. Here, we construct an agent-based model to simulate human mobility across Island Southeast Asia from the Neolithic period to the present, with a special focus on interactions between individuals with Asian, Papuan, and mixed Asian–Papuan ancestry. Incorporating key features of the region, including its complex geography (islands and sea), demographic drivers (fecundity and migration), and social behaviors (marriage preferences), the model simultaneously tracks a full suite of genomic markers (autosomes, X chromosome, mitochondrial DNA, and Y chromosome). Using Bayesian inference, model parameters were determined that produce simulations that closely resemble the admixture profiles of 2299 individuals from 84 populations across Island Southeast Asia. The results highlight that greater propensity to migrate and elevated birth rates are related drivers behind the expansion of individuals with Asian ancestry relative to individuals with Papuan ancestry, that offspring preferentially resulted from marriages between Asian women and Papuan men, and that in contrast to current thinking, individuals with Asian ancestry were likely distributed across large parts of western Island Southeast Asia before the Neolithic expansion. PMID:27683274

  14. Exploring the population genetic consequences of the colonization process with spatio-temporally explicit models: insights from coupled ecological, demographic and genetic models in montane grasshoppers.

    PubMed

    Knowles, L Lacey; Alvarado-Serrano, Diego F

    2010-09-01

    Understanding the genetic consequences of shifting species distributions is critical for evaluating the impact of climate-induced distributional changes. However, the demographic expansion associated with the colonization process typically takes place across a heterogeneous environment, with population sizes and migration rates varying across the landscape. Here we describe an approach for coupling ecological-niche models (ENMs) with demographic and genetic models to explore the genetic consequences of distributional shifts across a heterogeneous landscape. Analyses of a flightless grasshopper from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains of North America are used to show how biologically informed predictions can be generated about the genetic consequences of a colonization process across a spatially and temporally heterogeneous landscape (i.e. the suitability of habitats for the montane species differs across the landscape and is itself not static, with the displacement of contemporary populations into glacial refugia). By using (i) ENMs for current climatic conditions and the last glacial maximum to (ii) parameterize a demographic model of the colonization process, which then (iii) informs coalescent simulations, a set of models can be generated that capture different processes associated with distributional shifts. We discuss how the proposed approach for model generation can be integrated into a statistical framework for estimating key demographic parameters and testing hypotheses about the conditions for which distributional shifts may (or may not) enhance species divergence, including the importance of habitat stability, past gene-flow among currently isolated populations, and maintenance of refugial populations in multiple geographic regions.

  15. Fast demographic traits promote high diversification rates of Amazonian trees

    PubMed Central

    Baker, Timothy R; Pennington, R Toby; Magallon, Susana; Gloor, Emanuel; Laurance, William F; Alexiades, Miguel; Alvarez, Esteban; Araujo, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J M M; Aymard, Gerardo; de Oliveira, Atila Alves; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Bonal, Damien; Brienen, Roel J W; Chave, Jerome; Dexter, Kyle G; Di Fiore, Anthony; Eler, Eduardo; Feldpausch, Ted R; Ferreira, Leandro; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; van der Heijden, Geertje; Higuchi, Niro; Honorio, Eurídice; Huamantupa, Isau; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, Susan; Leaño, Claudio; Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon Junior, Ben Hur; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel; Neill, David; Peñuela-Mora, Maria Cristina; Pitman, Nigel; Prieto, Adriana; Quesada, Carlos A; Ramírez, Fredy; Ramírez Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustin; Ruschel, Ademir R; Salomão, Rafael P; de Andrade, Ana Segalin; Silva, J Natalino M; Silveira, Marcos; Simon, Marcelo F; Spironello, Wilson; ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Vilanova, Emilio; Vos, Vincent A; Phillips, Oliver L; Wiens, John

    2014-01-01

    The Amazon rain forest sustains the world's highest tree diversity, but it remains unclear why some clades of trees are hyperdiverse, whereas others are not. Using dated phylogenies, estimates of current species richness and trait and demographic data from a large network of forest plots, we show that fast demographic traits – short turnover times – are associated with high diversification rates across 51 clades of canopy trees. This relationship is robust to assuming that diversification rates are either constant or decline over time, and occurs in a wide range of Neotropical tree lineages. This finding reveals the crucial role of intrinsic, ecological variation among clades for understanding the origin of the remarkable diversity of Amazonian trees and forests. PMID:24589190

  16. Demographic Change and Parent-Child Relationships in Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Seltzer, Judith A.; Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic changes in who becomes a parent, how many children parents have, and the marital statuses of parents and children affect the extent to which parents and adult children provide for each other later in life. We describe these demographic changes and their implications for the help parents and children give each other throughout their adult years. The changing demography of US families has increased both generations’ need for family assistance among those already disadvantaged and has exacerbated differences between the socioeconomically advantaged and disadvantaged in the availability of kin support. Variations in the marital histories of parents and children also contribute to a divergence between mother-child and father-child relationships in later life. The churning of couple relationships in both generations blurs the boundaries between who is in the family and who is not, threatening the effectiveness of the family safety net among those who may need it the most. PMID:25378767

  17. What do we know about the agricultural demographic transition?

    PubMed

    Gage, Timothy B; DeWitte, Sharon

    2009-10-01

    The Agricultural Revolution accompanied, either as a cause or as an effect, important changes in human demographic systems. The consensus model is that fertility and mortality increased and health declined with the adoption of agriculture, compared to those for hunter-gatherers. Analysis of the agricultural transition relies primarily on archaeological and paleodemographic data and is thus subject to the errors associated with such data. The assumptions needed to use these data can profoundly affect the inferences that are drawn. While it is clear that, in general, population growth accompanied the agricultural transition, it is not as clear exactly how fertility and mortality changed or whether the transition caused a decline in health. Although the model of the agricultural demographic transition as outlined here may be correct, researchers should remain aware of the underlying assumptions and be open to future empirical evidence.

  18. How the demographic makeup of our community influences speech perception.

    PubMed

    Lev-Ari, Shiri; Peperkamp, Sharon

    2016-06-01

    Speech perception is known to be influenced by listeners' expectations of the speaker. This paper tests whether the demographic makeup of individuals' communities can influence their perception of foreign sounds by influencing their expectations of the language. Using online experiments with participants from all across the U.S. and matched census data on the proportion of Spanish and other foreign language speakers in participants' communities, this paper shows that the demographic makeup of individuals' communities influences their expectations of foreign languages to have an alveolar trill versus a tap (Experiment 1), as well as their consequent perception of these sounds (Experiment 2). Thus, the paper shows that while individuals' expectations of foreign language to have a trill occasionally lead them to misperceive a tap in a foreign language as a trill, a higher proportion of non-trill language speakers in one's community decreases this likelihood. These results show that individuals' environment can influence their perception by shaping their linguistic expectations.

  19. Robust ecological pattern formation induced by demographic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, Thomas; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2010-03-01

    We demonstrate that demographic noise can induce persistent spatial pattern formation and temporal oscillations in the Levin-Segel predator-prey model for plankton-herbivore population dynamics. Although the model exhibits a Turing instability in mean field theory, demographic noise greatly enlarges the region of parameter space where pattern formation occurs. To distinguish between patterns generated by fluctuations and those present at the mean field level in real ecosystems, we calculate the power spectrum in the noise-driven case and predict the presence of fat tails not present in the mean field case. These results may account for the prevalence of large-scale ecological patterns, beyond that expected from traditional non-stochastic approaches.

  20. Robust ecological pattern formation induced by demographic noise.

    PubMed

    Butler, Thomas; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    We demonstrate that demographic noise can induce persistent spatial pattern formation and temporal oscillations in the Levin-Segel predator-prey model for plankton-herbivore population dynamics. Although the model exhibits a Turing instability in mean-field theory, demographic noise greatly enlarges the region of parameter space where pattern formation occurs. To distinguish between patterns generated by fluctuations and those present at the mean-field level in real ecosystems, we calculate the power spectrum in the noise-driven case and predict the presence of fat tails not present in the mean-field case. These results may account for the prevalence of large-scale ecological patterns, beyond that expected from traditional nonstochastic approaches.

  1. Robust ecological pattern formation induced by demographic noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, Thomas; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    We demonstrate that demographic noise can induce persistent spatial pattern formation and temporal oscillations in the Levin-Segel predator-prey model for plankton-herbivore population dynamics. Although the model exhibits a Turing instability in mean-field theory, demographic noise greatly enlarges the region of parameter space where pattern formation occurs. To distinguish between patterns generated by fluctuations and those present at the mean-field level in real ecosystems, we calculate the power spectrum in the noise-driven case and predict the presence of fat tails not present in the mean-field case. These results may account for the prevalence of large-scale ecological patterns, beyond that expected from traditional nonstochastic approaches.

  2. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. This newest version includes updated population and land use data sets and addresses limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide (Final Report) describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

  3. Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

  4. Demographic spatial genetic structure of the Neotropical tree, Jacaranda copaia.

    PubMed

    Jones, F A; Hubbell, S P

    2006-10-01

    We used genotypes from six microsatellite loci and demographic data from a large mapped forest plot to study changes in spatial genetic structure across demographic stages, from seed rain to seedlings, juveniles, and adult diameter classes in the Neotropical tree, Jacaranda copaia. In pairwise comparisons of genetic differentiation among demographic classes, only seedlings were significantly differentiated from the other diameter classes; F(ST) values ranged from 0.006 to 0.009. Furthermore, only seedlings showed homozygote excess suggesting biparental inbreeding in the large diameter reproductive adults. We found very low levels of relatedness in the first distance class of trees, 1-26 cm diameter (F(ij) = 0.011). However, there was a 5- to 10-fold rise in relatedness in the smallest distance class, from the smallest to the largest tree diameter classes (F(ij) = 0.110 for individuals > 56 cm diameter). A variety of non-mutually exclusive mechanisms have been invoked perviously to explain such a pattern, including natural selection, history, or nonequilibrium population dynamics. The long-term demographic data available for this species allow us to evaluate these mechanisms. Jacaranda is a fast-growing, light-demanding species with low recruitment rates and high mortality rates in the smaller diameter classes. It successfully regenerates only in large light gaps, which occur infrequently and stochastically in space and time. These factors contribute to the nonequilibrium population dynamics and observed low genetic structure in the small size classes. We conclude that the pattern of spatial genetic transitions in Jacaranda is consistent with overlapping related generations and strong but infrequent periods of high recruitment, followed by long periods of population decline.

  5. Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guillaumet, Alban; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Camp, Richard J.; Paxton, Eben

    2016-01-01

    Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi, are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global

  6. Developing demographic toxicity data: optimizing effort for predicting population outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Stark, John D.

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests that population endpoints in risk assessment are far more accurate than static assessments. Complete demographic toxicity data based on full life tables are eminently useful in predicting population outcomes in many applications because they capture both lethal and sublethal effects; however, developing these life tables is extremely costly. In this study we investigated the efficiency of partial life cycle tests as a substitute for full life cycles in parameterizing population models. Life table data were developed for three species of Daphniids, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex, weekly throughout the life span of these species. Population growth rates (λ) and a series of other demographic parameters generated from the complete life cycle were compared to those calculated from cumulative weeks of the life cycle in order to determine the minimum number of weeks needed to generate an accurate population projection. Results showed that for C. dubia and D. pulex, λ values developed at >4 weeks (44.4% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (9 weeks) of each species. For D. magna, λ values developed at >7 weeks (70% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (10 weeks). Furthermore, these cutoff points for λ were not the same for other demographic parameters, with no clear pattern emerging. Our results indicate that for C. dubia, D. magna, and D. pulex, partial life tables can be used to generate population growth rates in lieu of full life tables. However, the implications of differences in cutoff points for different demographic parameters need to be investigated further. PMID:27257546

  7. Psychometric Properties of the Demographics, Temperament and Coping Scales (DTCS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-15

    prevalence rates, Combat and Operational S tress (COS) and its potential resultants (ranging from Combat and Opera tional Stress Reactions - COSRs to Post...Traumatic Stress Disorder - PTSD) are topics of specific interest to the Department of Defense (DoD). Three ind ividual difference factors: demographics...deployment Combat Stress Control (CSC) services scr eening instrument. This report presents data on the initial validation of these factors, which are

  8. [Demographic projections for Latin American countries prepared by CELADE].

    PubMed

    Somoza, J L

    1978-04-01

    The CELADE (Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia) prepares population projections for 20 Latin American countries, a difficult task considering the lack of reliable census data on births, deaths, and other demographic information. Nevertheless, the demographic situation can be estimated by distinguishing two states in the process: estimating past and present population history and formulating hypotheses regarding the future trends of demographic variables. In a typical situation for most Latin American countries, the first stage is the most difficult; results are mostly approximations of the reality. Thus, projections based on these data are unreliable. The present demographic situation in Latin America was analyzed by estimating fertility, mortality and international migration. Fertility rate was calculated based on the following data: number of children born to the female population, number of live births during the year prior to the census classified according to mother's age and number of children registered according to age up to 10 or 15 years of age. Fertility was thus calculated within 5 years prior to the census. Mortality was roughly estimated by calculating the annual death distribution by age. This promoted questions relating to orphans and the relative number of children who survived out of total number of children born to a woman. Little data was available on migration due to lack of registries on annual migration. It was estimated based on the number of people who left the country for 5 years, and promoted questions such as which country is one native of and year of entry into the country. The most important task relating to population projection of Latin America is the improvement of knowledge on fertility, mortality and migration.

  9. Using demographic data to better interpret pitfall trap catches

    PubMed Central

    Matalin, Andrey V.; Makarov, Kirill V.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The results of pitfall trapping are often interpreted as abundance in a particular habitat. At the same time, there are numerous cases of almost unrealistically high catches of ground beetles in seemingly unsuitable sites. The correlation of catches by pitfall trapping with the true distribution and abundance of Carabidae needs corroboration. During a full year survey in 2006/07 in the Lake Elton region (Volgograd Area, Russia), 175 species of ground beetles were trapped. Considering the differences in demographic structure of the local populations, and not their abundances, three groups of species were recognized: residents, migrants and sporadic. In residents, the demographic structure of local populations is complete, and their habitats can be considered “residential”. In migrants and sporadic species, the demographic structure of the local populations is incomplete, and their habitats can be considered “transit”. Residents interact both with their prey and with each other in a particular habitat. Sporadic species are hardly important to a carabid community because of their low abundances. The contribution of migrants to the structure of carabid communities is not apparent and requires additional research. Migrants and sporadic species represent a “labile” component in ground beetles communities, as opposed to a “stable” component, represented by residents. The variability of the labile component substantially limits our interpretation of species diversity in carabid communities. Thus, the criteria for determining the most abundant, or dominant species inevitably vary because the abundance of migrants in some cases can be one order of magnitude higher than that of residents. The results of pitfall trapping adequately reflect the state of carabid communities only in zonal habitats, while azonal and disturbed habitats are merely transit ones for many species of ground beetles. A study of the demographic structure of local populations and

  10. [Hereditary spherocytosis: Review. Part I. History, demographics, pathogenesis, and diagnosis].

    PubMed

    Donato, Hugo; Crisp, Renée Leonor; Rapetti, María Cristina; García, Eliana; Attie, Myriam

    2015-01-01

    Hereditary spherocytosis is the most frequent hereditary anemia excluding beta thalassemia in Argentina. Historical, demographic, genetic and pathogenic aspects of the disease are reviewed, and confirmatory laboratory tests are described. Special characteristics on the outcome of the disease in our population and prevalent protein deficiencies in our country are described. Emphasis is given on new available laboratory tests, which allow an earlier diagnosis using volume of blood samples significantly smaller than required for conventional tests.

  11. Negative thermal expansion materials: technological key for control of thermal expansion

    PubMed Central

    Takenaka, Koshi

    2012-01-01

    Most materials expand upon heating. However, although rare, some materials contract upon heating. Such negative thermal expansion (NTE) materials have enormous industrial merit because they can control the thermal expansion of materials. Recent progress in materials research enables us to obtain materials exhibiting negative coefficients of linear thermal expansion over −30 ppm K−1. Such giant NTE is opening a new phase of control of thermal expansion in composites. Specifically examining practical aspects, this review briefly summarizes materials and mechanisms of NTE as well as composites containing NTE materials, based mainly on activities of the last decade. PMID:27877465

  12. Thermal expansion and thermal expansion anisotropy of SiC polytypes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Z.; Bradt, R. C.

    1987-01-01

    The principal axial coefficients of thermal expansion for the (3C), (4H), and (6H) polytypes of SiC are considered to identify the structural role of the stacking layer sequence as it affects the thermal expansion. A general equation based on the fractions of cubic and hexagonal layer stacking is developed that expresses the principal axial thermal expansion coefficients of all of the SiC polytypes. It is then applied to address the thermal expansion anisotropy of the noncubic SiC structures.

  13. Negative thermal expansion materials: technological key for control of thermal expansion.

    PubMed

    Takenaka, Koshi

    2012-02-01

    Most materials expand upon heating. However, although rare, some materials contract upon heating. Such negative thermal expansion (NTE) materials have enormous industrial merit because they can control the thermal expansion of materials. Recent progress in materials research enables us to obtain materials exhibiting negative coefficients of linear thermal expansion over -30 ppm K(-1). Such giant NTE is opening a new phase of control of thermal expansion in composites. Specifically examining practical aspects, this review briefly summarizes materials and mechanisms of NTE as well as composites containing NTE materials, based mainly on activities of the last decade.

  14. Population structure and demographic inferences concerning the endangered onychophoran species Epiperipatus acacioi (Onychophora: Peripatidae).

    PubMed

    Lacorte, G A; Oliveira, I S; Fonseca, C G

    2011-11-09

    Epiperipatus acacioi (Onychophora: Peripatidae) is an endemic species of the Atlantic rainforest in southeastern Brazil, with a restricted known distribution, found only in two nearby areas (Tripuí and Itacolomi). Mitochondrial gene COI sequences of 93 specimens collected across the known range of E. acacioi were used to assess the extant genetic diversity and patterns of genetic structure, as well as to infer the demographic history of this species. We found considerable variability within the populations, even though there has been recent environmental disturbance in these habitats. The samples from the two areas where this species is found showed significantly different COI sequences and constitute two distinct populations [exact test of sample differentiation (P = 0.0008) and pairwise F(ST) analyses (F(ST) = 0.214, P < 0.00001)]. However, there was little genetic differentiation among samples from different sampling sites within populations, suggesting that the potential for dispersal of E. acacioi greater than would have been expected, based on their cryptic behavior and reduced vagility. Mismatch analyses and neutrality tests revealed evidence of recent population expansion processes for both populations, possibly related to variations in the past distribution of this species.

  15. Migrant nurses in Brazil: demographic characteristics, migration flow and relationship with the training process

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Kênia Lara; de Sena, Roseni Rosângela; Tavares, Tatiana Silva; Belga, Stephanie Marques Moura Franco; Maas, Lucas Wan Der

    2016-01-01

    Objective to analyze the migration of nurses in Brazil, describe the demographic characteristics of migrant nurses, the main migration flows, and establish relationships with the training process. Method a descriptive, exploratory study, based on 2010 Census data. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Result there were 355,383 nurses in Brazil in 2010. Of these, 36,479 (10.3%) reported having moved compared to the year 2005: 18,073 (5.1%) for intrastate migration, 17,525 (4.8%) interstate migration, and 871 (0.2%) international migration. Females (86.3%), Caucasians (65.2%), and unmarried (48.3%) nurses prevailed in the population, without considerable variation between groups according to migration situation. The findings indicate that the migration flows are driven by the training process for states that concentrate a greater number of courses and positions in undergraduate and graduate studies, and the motivation of employment opportunity in regions of economic expansion in the country. Conclusion it is necessary to deepen the discussion on the movement of nurses in Brazil, their motivations, and international migration. PMID:27027681

  16. Demographic History of a Recent Invasion of House Mice on the Isolated Island of Gough

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Melissa M.; Wegmann, Daniel; Haasl, Ryan J.; White, Michael A.; Gabriel, Sofia I.; Searle, Jeremy B.; Cuthbert, Richard J.; Ryan, Peter G.; Payseur, Bret A.

    2014-01-01

    Island populations provide natural laboratories for studying key contributors to evolutionary change, including natural selection, population size, and the colonization of new environments. The demographic histories of island populations can be reconstructed from patterns of genetic diversity. House mice (Mus musculus) inhabit islands throughout the globe, making them an attractive system for studying island colonization from a genetic perspective. Gough Island, in the central South Atlantic Ocean, is one of the remotest islands in the world. House mice were introduced to Gough Island by sealers during the 19th century, and display unusual phenotypes, including exceptionally large body size and carnivorous feeding behavior. We describe genetic variation in Gough Island mice using mitochondrial sequences, nuclear sequences, and microsatellites. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial sequences suggested that Gough Island mice belong to Mus musculus domesticus, with the maternal lineage possibly originating in England or France. Cluster analyses of microsatellites revealed genetic membership for Gough Island mice in multiple coastal populations in Western Europe, suggesting admixed ancestry. Gough Island mice showed substantial reductions in mitochondrial and nuclear sequence variation and weak reductions in microsatellite diversity compared with Western European populations, consistent with a population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) estimated that mice recently colonized Gough Island (~100 years ago) and experienced a 98% reduction in population size followed by a rapid expansion. Our results indicate that the unusual phenotypes of Gough Island mice evolved rapidly, positioning these mice as useful models for understanding rapid phenotypic evolution. PMID:24617968

  17. Demographic history of a recent invasion of house mice on the isolated Island of Gough.

    PubMed

    Gray, Melissa M; Wegmann, Daniel; Haasl, Ryan J; White, Michael A; Gabriel, Sofia I; Searle, Jeremy B; Cuthbert, Richard J; Ryan, Peter G; Payseur, Bret A

    2014-04-01

    Island populations provide natural laboratories for studying key contributors to evolutionary change, including natural selection, population size and the colonization of new environments. The demographic histories of island populations can be reconstructed from patterns of genetic diversity. House mice (Mus musculus) inhabit islands throughout the globe, making them an attractive system for studying island colonization from a genetic perspective. Gough Island, in the central South Atlantic Ocean, is one of the remotest islands in the world. House mice were introduced to Gough Island by sealers during the 19th century and display unusual phenotypes, including exceptionally large body size and carnivorous feeding behaviour. We describe genetic variation in Gough Island mice using mitochondrial sequences, nuclear sequences and microsatellites. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial sequences suggested that Gough Island mice belong to Mus musculus domesticus, with the maternal lineage possibly originating in England or France. Cluster analyses of microsatellites revealed genetic membership for Gough Island mice in multiple coastal populations in Western Europe, suggesting admixed ancestry. Gough Island mice showed substantial reductions in mitochondrial and nuclear sequence variation and weak reductions in microsatellite diversity compared with Western European populations, consistent with a population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) estimated that mice recently colonized Gough Island (~100 years ago) and experienced a 98% reduction in population size followed by a rapid expansion. Our results indicate that the unusual phenotypes of Gough Island mice evolved rapidly, positioning these mice as useful models for understanding rapid phenotypic evolution.

  18. Profile: The Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Delaunay, Valerie; Douillot, Laetitia; Diallo, Aldiouma; Dione, Djibril; Trape, Jean-François; Medianikov, Oleg; Raoult, Didier; Sokhna, Cheikh

    2013-01-01

    The Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Niakhar, a rural area of Senegal, is located 135 km east of Dakar. The HDSS was established in 1962 by the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) of Senegal to face the shortcomings of the civil registration system and provide demographic indicators. Some 65 villages in the Niakhar area were followed annually by the HDSS from 1962–1969. The study zone was reduced to 8 villages from 1969–1983, and from then on the HDSS was extended to include 22 other villages, covering a total of 30 villages for a population estimated at 43 000 in January 2012. Thus, 8 villages in the Niakhar area have been under demographic surveillance for almost 50 years and 30 villages for 30 years. Vital events, migrations, marital changes, pregnancies, and immunizations are routinely recorded every 4 months. The HDSS data base also includes epidemiological, economic, and environmental information obtained from specific surveys. Data were collected through annual rounds from 1962 to 1987. The rounds became weekly from 1987–1997, followed by routine visits conducted every 3 months between 1997 and 2007 and every 4 months since then. The data collected in the HDSS are not open to access, but can be fairly shared under conditions of collaboration and endowment. PMID:24062286

  19. The Phoenix population: demographic crisis and rebound in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Heuveline, Patrick; Poch, Bunnak

    2007-05-01

    The study of mortality crises provides an unusual and valuable perspective on the relationship between mortality and fertility changes, a relationship that has puzzled demographers for decades. In this article, we combine nationally representative survey and demographic-surveillance system data to study fertility trends around the time of the Khmer Rouge (KR) regime, under which 25% of the Cambodian population died. We present the first quantitative evidence to date that attests to a one-third decline of fertility during this regime, followed by a substantial "baby boom" after the fall of the KR. Further analyses reveal that the fertility rebound was produced not only by a two-year marriage bubble but also by a surge in marital fertility that remained for nearly a decade above its precrisis level. Our results illustrate the potential influence of mortality on fertility, which may be more difficult to identify for more gradual mortality declines. To the extent that until recently, Cambodian fertility appears to fit natural fertility patterns, our findings also reinforce recent qualifications about the meaning of this core paradigm of demographic analysis.

  20. [Demographic change and disease rates: a projection until 2050].

    PubMed

    Peters, E; Pritzkuleit, R; Beske, F; Katalinic, A

    2010-05-01

    Demographic change and its impact on the German healthcare system is a subject of great debate. The purpose of this paper is to make projections on disease rates based on the 11th coordinated demographic prediction and population-based data which take into consideration demographic developments. The German population will decrease by approximately 16% until 2050, while at the same time the number of persons aged over 65 years will increase by 38% and the number of individuals aged over 80 years will increase by 156%. Baby boomers cause a vertical wave in the population pyramid. The population pyramid itself will lead to an overproportional increase in the number of elderly persons. Assuming that disease probability stays the same, the incidence of diseases due to advanced age will rise dramatically. Especially diseases, such as community-acquired pneumonia, age-related macula degeneration, dementia, fracture of the femur neck, and myocardial infarction, will by then occur more often. By 2050, some of the most frequent diseases will be hypertension and arthrosis. Thus, the continuous cutting of resources seems rather short minded. It is highly recommended to reconsider the long-run effects before setting a health policy course. A proper social discourse about primary care and prioritization appears to be urgently needed.

  1. The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (CHILILAB HDSS).

    PubMed

    Tran, Bich Huu; Nguyen, Ha Thanh; Ho, Hien Thi; Pham, Cuong Viet; Le, Vui Thi; Le, Anh Vu

    2013-06-01

    The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System (CHILILAB HDSS) is the only health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in an urbanizing area of the Chi Linh district of Hai Duong, a northern province of Vietnam. It is one of the few field laboratories in the world that links operational research and health interventions with field training. The CHILILAB HDSS provides longitudinal data on demographic and health indicators for the community of Chi Linh. In 2012, when the CHILILAB HDSS included 57,561 people from 17 993 households in 3 towns and 4 communes, it used structured questionnaires to collect information on population changes (birth, death, migration, marriage, and pregnancy) in the community. As of December 2012, 5 rounds of a baseline survey and 17 periodic update surveys or re-enumeration surveys had been conducted. In addition, several specialized public-health research projects, focused particularly on adolescent health, have been implemented by the CHILILAB HDSS. The information that the CHILILAB HDSS has gathered provides a picture of the health status of the population and socio-economic situation in Chi Linh district. The contact person for data sharing is the director of the CHILILAB (E-mail: thb@hsph.edu.vn).

  2. [The effects of a demographic risk on saving].

    PubMed

    Crettez, B; Etner, J

    1998-01-01

    The authors examine whether uncertainty about future demographic developments will cause changes in savings rates under different types of pension systems, all other things being equal. Countries in which pensions are funded by current contributions from the working population may face crises if sustained lower fertility and demographic aging lead to a shrinking labor force available to support a growing population of pensioners. If, however, individuals increase their savings in anticipation that pensions may be reduced due to unfavorable demographic circumstances, the introduction of pension funds and fiscal policies to encourage savings may be less necessary. An overlapping generation model with uncertain population growth rates is utilized. The models consider both fixed and adjustable pensions. The elements of the model are presented, and an example is described to illustrate the idea that precautionary behavior of individuals, a recently developed concept of microeconomic theory, is insufficient by itself to determine the influence of an increase in uncertainty on savings. The idea is then presented in more general terms. Possible shortcomings of the approach, which should be considered in future research, are identified.

  3. On the Statistical Dependency of Identity Theft on Demographics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    di Crescenzo, Giovanni

    An improved understanding of the identity theft problem is widely agreed to be necessary to succeed in counter-theft efforts in legislative, financial and research institutions. In this paper we report on a statistical study about the existence of relationships between identity theft and area demographics in the US. The identity theft data chosen was the number of citizen complaints to the Federal Trade Commission in a large number of US municipalities. The list of demographics used for any such municipality included: estimated population, median resident age, estimated median household income, percentage of citizens with a high school or higher degree, percentage of unemployed residents, percentage of married residents, percentage of foreign born residents, percentage of residents living in poverty, density of law enforcement employees, crime index, and political orientation according to the 2004 presidential election. Our study findings, based on linear regression techniques, include statistically significant relationships between the number of identity theft complaints and a non-trivial subset of these demographics.

  4. Evidence of rapid change in genetic structure and diversity during range expansion in a recovering large terrestrial carnivore

    PubMed Central

    Hagen, Snorre B.; Kopatz, Alexander; Aspi, Jouni; Kojola, Ilpo; Eiken, Hans Geir

    2015-01-01

    Recovery of natural populations occurs often with simultaneous or subsequent range expansions. According to population genetic theory, genetic structuring emerges at the expansion front together with decreasing genetic diversity, owing to multiple founder events. Thereupon, as the expansion proceeds and connectivity among populations is established, homogenization and a resurgence of genetic diversity are to be expected. Few studies have used a fine temporal scale combined with genetic sampling to track range expansions as they proceed in wild animal populations. As a natural experiment, the historical eradication of large terrestrial carnivores followed by their recovery and recolonization may facilitate empirical tests of these ideas. Here, using brown bear (Ursus arctos) as model species, we tested predictions from genetic theory of range expansion. Individuals from all over Finland were genotyped for every year between 1996 and 2010 using 12 validated autosomal microsatellite markers. A latitudinal shift of about 110 km was observed in the distribution and delineation of genetic clusters during this period. As the range expansion proceeded, we found, as theory predicts, that the degree of genetic structure decreased, and that both genetic variation and admixture increased. The genetic consequences of range expansions may first be detected after multiple generations, but we found major changes in genetic composition after just 1.5 generations, accompanied by population growth and increased migration. These rapid genetic changes suggest an ongoing concerted action of geographical and demographic expansion combined with substantial immigration of bears from Russia during the recovery of brown bears within the large ecosystem of northern Europe. PMID:25904665

  5. Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans.

    PubMed

    Eriksson, Anders; Betti, Lia; Friend, Andrew D; Lycett, Stephen J; Singarayer, Joy S; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Valdes, Paul J; Balloux, Francois; Manica, Andrea

    2012-10-02

    The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317-1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on the appearance of fossils or archaeological evidence to determine arrival times in different parts of the world, we use patterns of genetic variation in modern human populations to determine the plausibility of past demographic parameters. We develop a spatially explicit model of the expansion of anatomically modern humans and use climate reconstructions over the past 120 ky based on the Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 to quantify the possible effects of climate on human demography. The combinations of demographic parameters compatible with the current genetic makeup of worldwide populations indicate a clear effect of climate on past population densities. Our estimates of this effect, based on population genetics, capture the observed relationship between current climate and population density in modern hunter-gatherers worldwide, providing supporting evidence for the realism of our approach. Furthermore, although we did not use any archaeological and anthropological data to inform the model, the arrival times in different continents predicted by our model are also broadly consistent with the fossil and archaeological records. Our framework provides the most accurate spatiotemporal reconstruction of human demographic history available at present and will allow for a greater integration of genetic and archaeological evidence.

  6. Parents' Decisions to Screen Newborns for FMR1 Gene Expansions in a Pilot Research Project

    PubMed Central

    Choudhury, Summer; Sideris, John; Guarda, Sonia; Buansi, Allen; Roche, Myra; Powell, Cynthia; Bailey, Donald B.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to document rates of parental consent in a pilot study of newborn screening for FMR1 gene expansions, examine demographic characteristics of mothers who consented or declined, describe the reasons for their decision, and discuss ethical and social aspects of the consent process. METHODS: A brief survey was used to record basic demographic data from mothers and an open-ended question was used to elicit parents' reasons for accepting or declining screening. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the number of mothers who consented to or declined screening, and a logistic regression model predicted mothers' likelihood to agree to screening based on demographic characteristics. Reasons for decisions were analyzed using content analysis. The study was conducted at University of North Carolina Hospitals. A total of 2137 mothers were approached. RESULTS: The uptake rate for couples was 63%. Acceptance rates varied by race/ethnicity, with black respondents being less likely to accept screening. Primary reasons for accepting were “to know,” “belief in research,” and “the test was minimal/no risk.” Reasons for declining included not wanting to know or worry, not being a good time, and issues with testing children or with genetic tests. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate that a majority of parents accepted newborn screening for FMR1 gene expansions, but decision rates and reasons for accepting or declining varied in part as a function of race/ethnicity and in part as a function of what parents most valued or feared in their assessment of risks and benefits. PMID:21624881

  7. Demographic history, marker variability and genetic differentiation in sandy beach fauna: What is the meaning of low FST's?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bezuidenhout, Karien; Nel, Ronel; Hauser, Lorenz

    2014-10-01

    This note demonstrates the effect of locus variability and demographic history on the estimation of genetic differentiation and its interpretation in terms of ecological connectivity. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI, mtDNA) sequences of the beach clam Donax serra from four sites along the South African coast were analysed. D. serra showed low COI haplotype diversity (h = 0.30 ± 0.069, 7 haplotypes), suggesting expansion from a small source population into extant habitats. As a consequence, statistical power to measure genetic connectivity was low. The lack of genetic population structure therefore does not necessarily demonstrate high connectivity. Although COI has been used successfully to identify species and populations isolated for prolonged periods of time, lack of differentiation has to be interpreted with caution, especially in terms of extant patterns of connectivity.

  8. Effects of restraint on expansion due to delayed ettringite formation

    SciTech Connect

    Bouzabata, Hassina; Multon, Stephane; Sellier, Alain; Houari, Hacene

    2012-07-15

    Delayed ettringite formation (DEF) is a chemical reaction that causes expansion in civil engineering structures. The safety level of such damaged structures has to be reassessed. To do this, the mechanical conditions acting on DEF expansions have to be analysed and, in particular, the variation of strength with expansion and the effect of restraint on the DEF expansion. This paper highlights several points: DEF expansion is isotropic in stress-free conditions, compressive stresses decrease DEF expansion in the direction subjected to restraint and lead to cracks parallel to the restraint, and expansion measured in the stress-free direction of restrained specimens is not modified. Thus restraint causes a decrease of the volumetric expansion and DEF expansion under restraint is anisotropic. Moreover, the paper examines the correlation between DEF expansion and concrete damage, providing data that can be used for the quantification of the effect of stresses on DEF induced expansion.

  9. The $\\hbar$ Expansion in Quantum Field Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Brodsky, Stanley J.; Hoyer, Paul; /Southern Denmark U., CP3-Origins /Helsinki U. /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.

    2010-10-27

    We show how expansions in powers of Planck's constant {h_bar} = h = 2{pi} can give new insights into perturbative and nonperturbative properties of quantum field theories. Since {h_bar} is a fundamental parameter, exact Lorentz invariance and gauge invariance are maintained at each order of the expansion. The physics of the {h_bar} expansion depends on the scheme; i.e., different expansions are obtained depending on which quantities (momenta, couplings and masses) are assumed to be independent of {h_bar}. We show that if the coupling and mass parameters appearing in the Lagrangian density are taken to be independent of {h_bar}, then each loop in perturbation theory brings a factor of {h_bar}. In the case of quantum electrodynamics, this scheme implies that the classical charge e, as well as the fine structure constant are linear in {h_bar}. The connection between the number of loops and factors of {h_bar} is more subtle for bound states since the binding energies and bound-state momenta themselves scale with {h_bar}. The {h_bar} expansion allows one to identify equal-time relativistic bound states in QED and QCD which are of lowest order in {h_bar} and transform dynamically under Lorentz boosts. The possibility to use retarded propagators at the Born level gives valence-like wave-functions which implicitly describe the sea constituents of the bound states normally present in its Fock state representation.

  10. Preliminary thermal expansion screening data for tuffs

    SciTech Connect

    Lappin, A.R.

    1980-03-01

    A major variable in evaluating the potential of silicic tuffs for use in geologic disposal of heat-producing nuclear wastes is thermal expansion. Results of ambient-pressure linear expansion measurements on a group of tuffs that vary treatly in porosity and mineralogy are presente here. Thermal expansion of devitrified welded tuffs is generally linear with increasing temperature and independent of both porosity and heating rate. Mineralogic factors affecting behavior of these tuffs are limited to the presence or absence of cristobalite and altered biotite. The presence of cristobalite results in markedly nonlinear expansion above 200{sup 0}C. If biotite in biotite-hearing rocks alters even slightly to expandable clays, the behavior of these tuffs near the boiling point of water can be dominated by contraction of the expandable phase. Expansion of both high- and low-porosity tuffs containing hydrated silicic glass and/or expandable clays is complex. The behavior of these rocks appears to be completely dominated by dehydration of hydrous phases and, hence, should be critically dependent on fluid pressure. Valid extrapolation of the ambient-pressure results presented here to depths of interest for construction of a nuclear-waste repository will depend on a good understanding of the interaction of dehydration rates and fluid pressures, and of the effects of both micro- and macrofractures on the response of tuff masss.

  11. Blacktip reef sharks, Carcharhinus melanopterus, have high genetic structure and varying demographic histories in their Indo-Pacific range.

    PubMed

    Vignaud, Thomas M; Mourier, Johann; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Spaet, Julia; Clua, Eric; Neglia, Valentina; Planes, Serge

    2014-11-01

    For free-swimming marine species like sharks, only population genetics and demographic history analyses can be used to assess population health/status as baseline population numbers are usually unknown. We investigated the population genetics of blacktip reef sharks, Carcharhinus melanopterus; one of the most abundant reef-associated sharks and the apex predator of many shallow water reefs of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Our sampling includes 4 widely separated locations in the Indo-Pacific and 11 islands in French Polynesia with different levels of coastal development. Four-teen microsatellite loci were analysed for samples from all locations and two mitochondrial DNA fragments, the control region and cytochrome b, were examined for 10 locations. For microsatellites, genetic diversity is higher for the locations in the large open systems of the Red Sea and Australia than for the fragmented habitat of the smaller islands of French Polynesia. Strong significant structure was found for distant locations with FST values as high as ~0.3, and a smaller but still significant structure is found within French Polynesia. Both mitochondrial genes show only a few mutations across the sequences with a dominant shared haplotype in French Polynesia and New Caledonia suggesting a common lineage different to that of East Australia. Demographic history analyses indicate population expansions in the Red Sea and Australia that may coincide with sea level changes after climatic events. Expansions and flat signals are indicated for French Polynesia as well as a significant recent bottleneck for Moorea, the most human-impacted lagoon of the locations in French Polynesia.

  12. [Forum on tissue expansion. Expansion of the scalp. Surgical techniques and clinical applications].

    PubMed

    Foyatier, J L; Delay, E; Comparin, J P; Latarjet, J; Masson, C L

    1993-02-01

    Repair of all forms of alopecia is one of the principal applications of scalp expansion. The authors have inserted 400 expansion prostheses, including 20 in the scalp. The surgical technique, choice of material and various types of flaps are described and illustrated by clinical cases of extensive alopecia.

  13. Phylogeography of Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) inferred from chloroplast and nuclear DNA: insights into evolutionary patterns and demographic history.

    PubMed

    Chen, T; Chen, Q; Luo, Y; Huang, Z-L; Zhang, J; Tang, H-R; Pan, D-M; Wang, X-R

    2015-07-01

    Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) is a commercially valuable fruit crop in China. In order to obtain new insights into its evolutionary history and provide valuable recommendations for resource conservation, phylogeographic patterns of 26 natural populations (305 total individuals) from six geographic regions were analyzed using chloroplast and nuclear DNA fragments. Low levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity were found in these populations, especially in landrace populations. It is likely that a combined effect of botanical characteristics impact the effective population size, such as inbreeding mating system, long life span, as well as vegetative reproduction. In addition, strong bottleneck effect caused by domestication, together with founder effect after dispersal and subsequent demographic expansion, might also accelerate the reduction of the genetic variation in landrace populations. Interestingly, populations from Longmen Mountain (LMM) and Daliangshan Mountain (DLSM) exhibited relatively higher levels of genetic diversity, inferring the two historical genetic diversity centers of the species. Moreover, moderate population subdivision was also detected by both chloroplast DNA (GST = 0.215; NST = 0.256) and nuclear DNA (GST = 0.146; NST = 0.342), respectively. We inferred that the episodes of efficient gene flow through seed dispersal, together with features of long generation cycle and inbreeding mating system, were likely the main contributors causing the observed phylogeographic patterns. Finally, factors that led to the present demographic patterns of populations from these regions and taxonomic varieties were also discussed.

  14. Graphite thermal expansion reference for high temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaal, P. S.

    1974-01-01

    The design requirements of the aerospace and high-temperature nuclear reactor industries necessitate reliable thermal expansion data for graphite and other carbonaceous materials. The feasibility of an acceptable reference for calibration of expansion measuring systems that operate in carbon-rich atmospheres at temperatures ranging to 2500 C is the prime subject of this work. Present-day graphite technology provides acceptable materials for stable, reproducible references, as reflected by some of the candidate materials. The repeatability for a single specimen in a given expansion measuring system was found to be plus or minus 1%, while the combined results of several tests made on a number of samples fell within a plus or minus 2.5% band.

  15. Far field expansion for anisotropic wave equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hariharan, S. I.; Hagstrom, Thomas

    1989-01-01

    A necessary ingredient for the numerical simulation of many time dependent phenomena in acoustics and aerodynamics is the imposition of accurate radiation conditions at artificial boundaries. The asymptotic analysis of propagating waves provides a rational approach to the development of such conditions. A far field asymptotic expansion of solutions of anisotropic wave equations is derived. This generalizes the well known Friedlander expansion for the standard wave operator. The expansion is used to derive a hierarchy of radiation conditions of increasing accuracy. Two numerical experiments are given to illustrate the utility of this approach. The first application is the study of unsteady vortical disturbances impinging on a flat plate; the second is the simulation of inviscid flow past an impulsively started cylinder.

  16. Ultraprecise measurement of thermal coefficients of expansion.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, S F; Bradford, J N; Berthold Iii, J W

    1970-11-01

    A novel method for determining thermal expansion coefficients has been devised. It is based on the dependence of Fabry-Perot resonances on the mirror separation. The expansion sample is formed into an etalon spacer, with highly reflecting endplates optically contacted to each end. The Fabry-Perot resonances are probed by variable radiofrequency sidebands derived from a frequency stabilized 633-nm He-Ne laser. A change in sample temperature DeltaT causes a change in interferometer length DeltaL, which shifts the resonance frequencies by Deltanu. Then alpha = (1/DeltaT)(DeltaL/L) = (1/DeltaT)(Deltanu/nu). alpha can be measured with precision limited ultimately by the stability of the stabilized laser (1:10(9) with presently available commercial lasers). alpha vs temperature has been measured for samples of Owens-Illinois Cer-Vit, Corning ULE silica, and Schott low expansion glass-ceramic.

  17. DNA Triplet Repeat Expansion and Mismatch Repair

    PubMed Central

    Iyer, Ravi R.; Pluciennik, Anna; Napierala, Marek; Wells, Robert D.

    2016-01-01

    DNA mismatch repair is a conserved antimutagenic pathway that maintains genomic stability through rectification of DNA replication errors and attenuation of chromosomal rearrangements. Paradoxically, mutagenic action of mismatch repair has been implicated as a cause of triplet repeat expansions that cause neurological diseases such as Huntington disease and myotonic dystrophy. This mutagenic process requires the mismatch recognition factor MutSβ and the MutLα (and/or possibly MutLγ) endonuclease, and is thought to be triggered by the transient formation of unusual DNA structures within the expanded triplet repeat element. This review summarizes the current knowledge of DNA mismatch repair involvement in triplet repeat expansion, which encompasses in vitro biochemical findings, cellular studies, and various in vivo transgenic animal model experiments. We present current mechanistic hypotheses regarding mismatch repair protein function in mediating triplet repeat expansions and discuss potential therapeutic approaches targeting the mismatch repair pathway. PMID:25580529

  18. Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno

    2016-03-01

    A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.

  19. COST VS. QUALITY IN DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: WHEN IS A VITAL RATE GOOD ENOUGH?

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will focus on the assessment of quality for demographic parameters to be used in population-level risk assessment. Current population models can handle genetic, demographic, and environmental stochasticity, density dependence, and multiple stressors. However, cu...

  20. Genetic evidence for the effect of a postglacial population expansion on the phylogeography of a North American songbird.

    PubMed Central

    Milá, B; Girman, D J; Kimura, M; Smith, T B

    2000-01-01

    Phylogeographical studies of Nearctic songbirds conducted to date have yielded unexpectedly low levels of genetic differentiation and weak phylogeographical structure in mitochondrial DNA lineages as compared with species studied in Neotropical areas. Factors leading to this pattern may include (i) gene flow, (ii) population expansions from bottlenecked populations, and (iii) selective sweeps. Here we provide evidence for the role played by Pleistocene postglacial population expansions on the phylogeography of MacGillivray's warbler (Oporornis tolmiei), a long-distance migratory bird. Samples from 12 breeding localities in the temperate USA were compared with those from two localities in north-eastern Mexico. The former showed evidence of a Late Pleistocene population expansion as indicated by low haplotype and nucleotide diversity, a star-like phylogeny of alleles, and a mismatch distribution indicating a sudden increase in effective population size. By contrast, the Mexican population showed high levels of genetic diversity and a mismatch distribution as expected for a population unaffected by sudden demographic change. Haplotypes from the two regions formed two distinct phylogroups which separated roughly one million years ago according to a conventional molecular clock for songbirds. This study provides support for the Pleistocene expansion hypothesis in MacGillivray's warbler and suggests that postglacial expansion of bottlenecked populations is responsible for the lack of variation and structure reported for most North American songbird species. PMID:10874754