Zipf 's law and the effect of ranking on probability distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Günther, R.; Levitin, L.; Schapiro, B.; Wagner, P.

1996-02-01

Ranking procedures are widely used in the description of many different types of complex systems. Zipf's law is one of the most remarkable frequency-rank relationships and has been observed independently in physics, linguistics, biology, demography, etc. We show that ranking plays a crucial role in making it possible to detect empirical relationships in systems that exist in one realization only, even when the statistical ensemble to which the systems belong has a very broad probability distribution. Analytical results and numerical simulations are presented which clarify the relations between the probability distributions and the behavior of expected values for unranked and ranked random variables. This analysis is performed, in particular, for the evolutionary model presented in our previous papers which leads to Zipf's law and reveals the underlying mechanism of this phenomenon in terms of a system with interdependent and interacting components as opposed to the “ideal gas” models suggested by previous researchers. The ranking procedure applied to this model leads to a new, unexpected phenomenon: a characteristic “staircase” behavior of the mean values of the ranked variables (ranked occupation numbers). This result is due to the broadness of the probability distributions for the occupation numbers and does not follow from the “ideal gas” model. Thus, it provides an opportunity, by comparison with empirical data, to obtain evidence as to which model relates to reality.

Motor skill delays in pre-school children with leukemia one year after treatment: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation therapy as an important risk factor.

PubMed

Taverna, Livia; Tremolada, Marta; Bonichini, Sabrina; Tosetto, Barbara; Basso, Giuseppe; Messina, Chiara; Pillon, Marta

2017-01-01

CNS-directed therapies for the treatment of leukemia can adversely affect the acquisition of new skills, such as reading/writing and math. Two years after the end of treatments, children show gross and fine motor skill delays that may persist even when patients are considered healed. The goal of the present study was to assess motor skills difficulties in pre-school children with leukemia one year after treatment. Particular attention has been paid to those patients who had undergone Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) and to the relationship between motor delays and age bands. Participants were 60 children (median age of 5; inter quartile range: 3.07-5.76), including 31 females and 29 males, 91.7% of them were affected by acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and 8.3% by acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Five children had undergone HCST. Parents were interviewed by Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) on children's motor skills and filled in the Italian Temperament Questionnaire (QUIT). VABS's total scores were converted into equivalent mental age scores (EMA). A score difference of at least three months between current age and equivalent mental age was considered a developmental delay. Non-parametric analyses were run to understand if HSCT treatment and a specific age band influence children's motor skills. Significant delays were found in global motor skills (56.7%) as well as in fine and gross motor domains. Mann Whitney U tests showed that children with HSCT were reported to have lower gross motor mean ranks (U = 62; p = 0.004; Mean rank = 15.40) than peers without HSCT (Mean rank = 31.87) and lower mean rank values on motor temperament scale (U = 9; p = 0.003; HSCT Mean rank = 4.75 versus no HSCT Mean rank = 27.81). Kruskal Wallis' tests identified the high risk treatment showing that HSCT experience negatively impacted the motor skills and temperamental motor activity of pre-school children one year after the diagnosis of leukemia.

Motor skill delays in pre-school children with leukemia one year after treatment: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation therapy as an important risk factor

PubMed Central

Bonichini, Sabrina; Tosetto, Barbara; Basso, Giuseppe; Messina, Chiara; Pillon, Marta

2017-01-01

CNS-directed therapies for the treatment of leukemia can adversely affect the acquisition of new skills, such as reading/writing and math. Two years after the end of treatments, children show gross and fine motor skill delays that may persist even when patients are considered healed. The goal of the present study was to assess motor skills difficulties in pre-school children with leukemia one year after treatment. Particular attention has been paid to those patients who had undergone Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) and to the relationship between motor delays and age bands. Participants were 60 children (median age of 5; inter quartile range: 3.07–5.76), including 31 females and 29 males, 91.7% of them were affected by acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and 8.3% by acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Five children had undergone HCST. Parents were interviewed by Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales (VABS) on children’s motor skills and filled in the Italian Temperament Questionnaire (QUIT). VABS’s total scores were converted into equivalent mental age scores (EMA). A score difference of at least three months between current age and equivalent mental age was considered a developmental delay. Non-parametric analyses were run to understand if HSCT treatment and a specific age band influence children’s motor skills. Significant delays were found in global motor skills (56.7%) as well as in fine and gross motor domains. Mann Whitney U tests showed that children with HSCT were reported to have lower gross motor mean ranks (U = 62; p = 0.004; Mean rank = 15.40) than peers without HSCT (Mean rank = 31.87) and lower mean rank values on motor temperament scale (U = 9; p = 0.003; HSCT Mean rank = 4.75 versus no HSCT Mean rank = 27.81). Kruskal Wallis’ tests identified the high risk treatment showing that HSCT experience negatively impacted the motor skills and temperamental motor activity of pre-school children one year after the diagnosis of leukemia. PMID:29065156

Converting endangered species categories to probabilities of extinction for phylogenetic conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Mooers, Arne Ø; Faith, Daniel P; Maddison, Wayne P

2008-01-01

Categories of imperilment like the global IUCN Red List have been transformed to probabilities of extinction and used to rank species by the amount of imperiled evolutionary history they represent (e.g. by the Edge of Existence programme). We investigate the stability of such lists when ranks are converted to probabilities of extinction under different scenarios. Using a simple example and computer simulation, we show that preserving the categories when converting such list designations to probabilities of extinction does not guarantee the stability of the resulting lists. Care must be taken when choosing a suitable transformation, especially if conservation dollars are allocated to species in a ranked fashion. We advocate routine sensitivity analyses.

Match score affects activity profile and skill performance in professional Australian Football players.

PubMed

Sullivan, Courtney; Bilsborough, Johann C; Cianciosi, Michael; Hocking, Joel; Cordy, Justin; Coutts, Aaron J

2014-05-01

To examine the influence of quarter outcome and the margin of the score differential on both the physical activity profile and skill performance of players during professional Australian Football matches. Prospective, longitudinal. Physical activity profiles were assessed via microtechnology (Global Positioning System and accelerometer) from 40 professional AF players from the same team during 15 Australian Football League games. Skill performance measures (involvement and effectiveness) and player rank scores (Champion Data(©) Rank) were provided by a commercial statistical provider. The physical performance variables, skill involvements and individual player performance scores were expressed relative to playing time for each quarter. The influence of the quarter result (i.e. win vs. loss) and score margin (i.e. small: <9 points, moderate: 10-18 points, and large: >19 points) on activity profile and skill involvements and skill efficiency performance of players were examined. Skill involvements (total disposals/min, long kicks/min, marks/min, running bounces/min and player rank/min) were greater in quarters won (all p<0.01). In contrast, the players high speed running distance per minute (>14.5 km h(-1), HSR/min), sprints/min and peak speed were higher in losing quarters (all p<0.01). Smaller score margins were associated with increased physical activity (m/min, HSR/min, and body load/min, all p<0.05) and decreased skill efficiency (handball clangers/min and player rank/min, all p<0.05). Professional AF players are likely to have an increased physical activity profile and decreased skill involvement and proficiency when their team is less successful. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of visual search strategies of elite and non-elite tennis players through cluster analysis.

PubMed

Murray, Nicholas P; Hunfalvay, Melissa

2017-02-01

Considerable research has documented that successful performance in interceptive tasks (such as return of serve in tennis) is based on the performers' capability to capture appropriate anticipatory information prior to the flight path of the approaching object. Athletes of higher skill tend to fixate on different locations in the playing environment prior to initiation of a skill than their lesser skilled counterparts. The purpose of this study was to examine visual search behaviour strategies of elite (world ranked) tennis players and non-ranked competitive tennis players (n = 43) utilising cluster analysis. The results of hierarchical (Ward's method) and nonhierarchical (k means) cluster analyses revealed three different clusters. The clustering method distinguished visual behaviour of high, middle-and low-ranked players. Specifically, high-ranked players demonstrated longer mean fixation duration and lower variation of visual search than middle-and low-ranked players. In conclusion, the results demonstrated that cluster analysis is a useful tool for detecting and analysing the areas of interest for use in experimental analysis of expertise and to distinguish visual search variables among participants'.

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

2018-03-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions, instead using initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), such as soil moisture, groundwater, and snow, as the source of skill. We benchmark when and where the ESP method is skilful across a diverse sample of 314 catchments in the UK and explore the relationship between catchment storage and ESP skill. The GR4J hydrological model was forced with historic climate sequences to produce a 51-member ensemble of streamflow hindcasts. We evaluated forecast skill seamlessly from lead times of 1 day to 12 months initialized at the first of each month over a 50-year hindcast period from 1965 to 2015. Results showed ESP was skilful against a climatology benchmark forecast in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. UK-wide mean ESP skill decayed exponentially as a function of lead time with continuous ranked probability skill scores across the year of 0.75, 0.20, and 0.11 for 1-day, 1-month, and 3-month lead times, respectively. However, skill was not uniform across all initialization months. For lead times up to 1 month, ESP skill was higher than average when initialized in summer and lower in winter months, whereas for longer seasonal and annual lead times skill was higher when initialized in autumn and winter months and lowest in spring. ESP was most skilful in the south and east of the UK, where slower responding catchments with higher soil moisture and groundwater storage are mainly located; correlation between catchment base flow index (BFI) and ESP skill was very strong (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.90 at 1-month lead time). This was in contrast to the more highly responsive catchments in the north and west which were generally not skilful at seasonal lead times. Overall, this work provides scientific justification for when and where use of such a relatively simple forecasting approach is appropriate in the UK. This study, furthermore, creates a low cost benchmark against which potential skill improvements from more sophisticated hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction systems can be judged.

Monthly and seasonally verification of precipitation in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, K.; Linkowska, J.

2009-04-01

The national meteorological service of Poland - the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) joined COSMO - The Consortium for Small Scale Modelling on July 2004. In Poland, the COSMO _PL model version 3.5 had run till June 2007. Since July 2007, the model version 4.0 has been running. The model runs in an operational mode at 14-km grid spacing, twice a day (00 UTC, 12 UTC). For scientific research also model with 7-km grid spacing is ran. Monthly and seasonally verification for the 24-hours (06 UTC - 06 UTC) accumulated precipitation is presented in this paper. The precipitation field of COSMO_LM had been verified against rain gauges network (308 points). The verification had been made for every month and all seasons from December 2007 to December 2008. The verification was made for three forecast days for selected thresholds: 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm. Following indices from contingency table were calculated: FBI (bias), POD (probability of detection), PON (probability of detection of non event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True sill statistic), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score). Also percentile ranks and ROC-relative operating characteristic are presented. The ROC is a graph of the hit rate (Y-axis) against false alarm rate (X-axis) for different decision thresholds

Monthly and seasonally verification of precipitation in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, K.; Linkowska, J.

2009-04-01

The national meteorological service of Poland - the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) joined COSMO - The Consortium for Small Scale Modelling on July 2004. In Poland, the COSMO _PL model version 3.5 had run till June 2007. Since July 2007, the model version 4.0 has been running. The model runs in an operational mode at 14-km grid spacing, twice a day (00 UTC, 12 UTC). For scientific research also model with 7-km grid spacing is ran. Monthly and seasonally verification for the 24-hours (06 UTC - 06 UTC) accumulated precipitation is presented in this paper. The precipitation field of COSMO_LM had been verified against rain gauges network (308 points). The verification had been made for every month and all seasons from December 2007 to December 2008. The verification was made for three forecast days for selected thresholds: 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm. Following indices from contingency table were calculated: FBI (bias), POD (probability of detection), PON (probability of detection of non event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True sill statistic), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score). Also percentile ranks and ROC-relative operating characteristic are presented. The ROC is a graph of the hit rate (Y-axis) against false alarm rate (X-axis) for different decision thresholds.

Laparoscopic skills assessment: an additional modality for pediatric surgery fellowship selection.

PubMed

Hazboun, Rajaie; Rodriguez, Samuel; Thirumoorthi, Arul; Baerg, Joanne; Moores, Donald; Tagge, Edward P

2017-12-01

The Pediatric Surgery fellow selection is a multi-layered process which has not included assessment of surgical dexterity. Data was collected prospectively as part of the 2016 Pediatric Surgery Match interview process. Applicants completed a questionnaire to document laparoscopic experience and fine motor skills activities. Actual laparoscopic skills were assessed using a simulator. Time to complete an intracorporeal knot was tabulated. An initial rank list was formulated based only on the ERAS application and interview scores. The rank list was re-formulated following the laparoscopic assessment. Un-paired T-test and regression were utilized to analyze the data. Forty applicants were interviewed with 18 matched (45%). The mean knot tying time was 201.31s for matched and 202.35s for unmatched applicants. Playing a musical instrument correlated with faster knot tying (p=0.03). No correlation was identified between knot tying time and either video game experience (p=0.4) or passing the FLS exam (p=0.78). Laparoscopic skills assessment lead to significant reordering of rank list (p=0.01). Laparoscopic skills performance significantly impacted ranking. Playing a musical instrument correlated with faster knot tying. No correlation was identified between laparoscopic performance and passing the FLS exam or other activities traditionally believed to improve technical ability. Prospective study. Level II. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Time evolution of Wikipedia network ranking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Young-Ho; Frahm, Klaus M.; Benczúr, András; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

2013-12-01

We study the time evolution of ranking and spectral properties of the Google matrix of English Wikipedia hyperlink network during years 2003-2011. The statistical properties of ranking of Wikipedia articles via PageRank and CheiRank probabilities, as well as the matrix spectrum, are shown to be stabilized for 2007-2011. A special emphasis is done on ranking of Wikipedia personalities and universities. We show that PageRank selection is dominated by politicians while 2DRank, which combines PageRank and CheiRank, gives more accent on personalities of arts. The Wikipedia PageRank of universities recovers 80% of top universities of Shanghai ranking during the considered time period.

A survey-based cross-sectional study of doctors’ expectations and experiences of non-technical skills for Out of Hours work

PubMed Central

Brown, Michael; Shaw, Dominick; Sharples, Sarah; Jeune, Ivan Le; Blakey, John

2015-01-01

Objectives The skill set required for junior doctors to work efficiently and safely Out of Hours (OoH) in hospitals has not been established. This is despite the OoH period representing 75% of the year and it being the time of highest mortality. We set out to explore the expectations of medical students and experiences of junior doctors of the non-technical skills needed to work OoH. Design Survey-based cross-sectional study informed by focus groups. Setting Online survey with participants from five large teaching hospitals across the UK. Participants 300 Medical Students and Doctors Outcome measure Participants ranked the importance of non-technical skills, as identified by literature review and focus groups, needed for OoH care. Results The focus groups revealed a total of eight non-technical skills deemed to be important. In the survey ‘Task Prioritisation’ (mean rank 1.617) was consistently identified as the most important non-technical skill. Stage of training affected the ranking of skills, with significant differences for ‘Communication with Senior Doctors’, ‘Dealing with Clinical Isolation’, ‘Task Prioritisation’ and ‘Communication with Patients’. Importantly, there was a significant discrepancy between the medical student expectations and experiences of doctors undertaking work. Conclusions Our findings suggest that medical staff particularly value task prioritisation skills; however, these are not routinely taught in medical schools. The discrepancy between expectations of students and experience of doctors reinforces the idea that there is a gap in training. Doctors of different grades place different importance on specific non-technical skills with implications for postgraduate training. There is a pressing need for medical schools and deaneries to review non-technical training to include more than communication skills. PMID:25687899

Assessment of the forecast skill of spring onset in the NMME experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, C. M.; Ault, T.

2017-12-01

This study assesses the predictability of spring onset using an index of its interannual variability. We use the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experiment to assess this predictability. The input dataset to compute spring onset index, SI-x, were treated with a daily joint bias correction (JBC) approach, and the SI-x outputs were post-processed using three ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) approaches—logistic regression, Gaussian Ensemble Dressing, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regression. These EMOS approaches quantify the effect of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The highest range of predictability for the timing spring onset is from 10 to 60 days, and it is located along a narrow band between 35° to 45°N in the US. Using rank probability scores based on quantiles (q), a forecast threshold (q) of 0.5 provides a range of predictability that falls into two categories 10-40 and 40-60 days, which seems to represent the effect of the intra-seasonal scale. Using higher thresholds (q=0.6 and 0.7) predictability shows lower range with values around 10-30 days. The post-processing work using JBC improves the predictability skill by 13% from uncorrected results. Using EMOS, a significant positive change in the skill score is noted in regions where the skill with JBC shows evidence of improvement. The consensus of these techniques shows that regions of better predictability can be expanded.

Expectations of Graduate Communication Skills in Professional Veterinary Practice.

PubMed

Haldane, Sarah; Hinchcliff, Kenneth; Mansell, Peter; Baik, Chi

Good communication skills are an important entry-level attribute of graduates of professional degrees. The inclusion of communication training within the curriculum can be problematic, particularly in programs with a high content load, such as veterinary science. This study examined the differences between the perceptions of students and qualified veterinarians with regards to the entry-level communication skills required of new graduates in clinical practice. Surveys were distributed to students in each of the four year levels of the veterinary science degree at the University of Melbourne and to recent graduates and experienced veterinarians registered in Victoria, Australia. Respondents were asked to rank the relative importance of six different skill sets: knowledge base; medical and technical skills; surgical skills; verbal communication and interpersonal skills; written communication skills; and critical thinking and problem solving. They were then asked to rate the importance of specific communication skills for new graduate veterinarians. Veterinarians and students ranked verbal communication and interpersonal skills as the most important skill set for an entry-level veterinarian. Veterinarians considered many new graduates to be deficient in these skills. Students often felt they lacked confidence in this area. This has important implications for veterinary educators in terms of managing the expectations of students and improving the delivery of communication skills courses within the veterinary curriculum.

Incorporating Functional Genomic Information in Genetic Association Studies Using an Empirical Bayes Approach.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

2016-04-01

There is a large amount of functional genetic data available, which can be used to inform fine-mapping association studies (in diseases with well-characterised disease pathways). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritization via Bayes factors is attractive because prior information can inform the effect size or the prior probability of causal association. This approach requires the specification of the effect size. If the information needed to estimate a priori the probability density for the effect sizes for causal SNPs in a genomic region isn't consistent or isn't available, then specifying a prior variance for the effect sizes is challenging. We propose both an empirical method to estimate this prior variance, and a coherent approach to using SNP-level functional data, to inform the prior probability of causal association. Through simulation we show that when ranking SNPs by our empirical Bayes factor in a fine-mapping study, the causal SNP rank is generally as high or higher than the rank using Bayes factors with other plausible values of the prior variance. Importantly, we also show that assigning SNP-specific prior probabilities of association based on expert prior functional knowledge of the disease mechanism can lead to improved causal SNPs ranks compared to ranking with identical prior probabilities of association. We demonstrate the use of our methods by applying the methods to the fine mapping of the CASP8 region of chromosome 2 using genotype data from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-Environment Study (COGS) Consortium. The data we analysed included approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples. © 2016 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

76 FR 1606 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-11

... Number (SSN), rank, gender, birth date, medical appointment scheduling information, employment... manage the entire learning environment for all soldiers. Training managers at separate companies..., unit number, rank, military occupational specialty, skill level, and signature. In addition, the...

Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

How Many Alternatives Can Be Ranked? A Comparison of the Paired Comparison and Ranking Methods.

PubMed

Ock, Minsu; Yi, Nari; Ahn, Jeonghoon; Jo, Min-Woo

2016-01-01

To determine the feasibility of converting ranking data into paired comparison (PC) data and suggest the number of alternatives that can be ranked by comparing a PC and a ranking method. Using a total of 222 health states, a household survey was conducted in a sample of 300 individuals from the general population. Each respondent performed a PC 15 times and a ranking method 6 times (two attempts of ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively). The health states of the PC and the ranking method were constructed to overlap each other. We converted the ranked data into PC data and examined the consistency of the response rate. Applying probit regression, we obtained the predicted probability of each method. Pearson correlation coefficients were determined between the predicted probabilities of those methods. The mean absolute error was also assessed between the observed and the predicted values. The overall consistency of the response rate was 82.8%. The Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.789, 0.852, and 0.893 for ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively. The lowest mean absolute error was 0.082 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.074-0.090) in ranking five health states, followed by 0.123 (95% CI 0.111-0.135) in ranking four health states and 0.126 (95% CI 0.113-0.138) in ranking three health states. After empirically examining the consistency of the response rate between a PC and a ranking method, we suggest that using five alternatives in the ranking method may be superior to using three or four alternatives. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

2015-04-01

Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near-surface wind speed, suggests that improvements to the atmospheric model have an effect quite different from what calibration by statistical post-processing is doing. That is, they are increasing potential skill. Thus this study indicates that (a) further model development is important even if one is just interested in point forecasts, and (b) statistical post-processing is important because it will keep adding skill in the foreseeable future.

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, Justin; Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya, Edmundo; Block, Paul

2017-09-01

In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights. Delayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are realized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with a reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts outperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September: ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of 61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill due to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September statistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength statistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow forecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years (1950-2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be useful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of expected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September) as more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir allocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill score of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation prediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation efficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision frameworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the mechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley and provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction of water right allocations.

Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

PubMed

Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

2015-07-01

Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimating Independent Locally Shifted Random Utility Models for Ranking Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Kar Yin; Koning, Alex J.; Franses, Philip Hans

2011-01-01

We consider the estimation of probabilistic ranking models in the context of conjoint experiments. By using approximate rather than exact ranking probabilities, we avoided the computation of high-dimensional integrals. We extended the approximation technique proposed by Henery (1981) in the context of the Thurstone-Mosteller-Daniels model to any…

Using rank-order geostatistics for spatial interpolation of highly skewed data in a heavy-metal contaminated site.

PubMed

Juang, K W; Lee, D Y; Ellsworth, T R

2001-01-01

The spatial distribution of a pollutant in contaminated soils is usually highly skewed. As a result, the sample variogram often differs considerably from its regional counterpart and the geostatistical interpolation is hindered. In this study, rank-order geostatistics with standardized rank transformation was used for the spatial interpolation of pollutants with a highly skewed distribution in contaminated soils when commonly used nonlinear methods, such as logarithmic and normal-scored transformations, are not suitable. A real data set of soil Cd concentrations with great variation and high skewness in a contaminated site of Taiwan was used for illustration. The spatial dependence of ranks transformed from Cd concentrations was identified and kriging estimation was readily performed in the standardized-rank space. The estimated standardized rank was back-transformed into the concentration space using the middle point model within a standardized-rank interval of the empirical distribution function (EDF). The spatial distribution of Cd concentrations was then obtained. The probability of Cd concentration being higher than a given cutoff value also can be estimated by using the estimated distribution of standardized ranks. The contour maps of Cd concentrations and the probabilities of Cd concentrations being higher than the cutoff value can be simultaneously used for delineation of hazardous areas of contaminated soils.

A survey-based cross-sectional study of doctors' expectations and experiences of non-technical skills for Out of Hours work.

PubMed

Brown, Michael; Shaw, Dominick; Sharples, Sarah; Jeune, Ivan Le; Blakey, John

2015-02-16

The skill set required for junior doctors to work efficiently and safely Out of Hours (OoH) in hospitals has not been established. This is despite the OoH period representing 75% of the year and it being the time of highest mortality. We set out to explore the expectations of medical students and experiences of junior doctors of the non-technical skills needed to work OoH. Survey-based cross-sectional study informed by focus groups. Online survey with participants from five large teaching hospitals across the UK. 300 Medical Students and Doctors Participants ranked the importance of non-technical skills, as identified by literature review and focus groups, needed for OoH care. The focus groups revealed a total of eight non-technical skills deemed to be important. In the survey 'Task Prioritisation' (mean rank 1.617) was consistently identified as the most important non-technical skill. Stage of training affected the ranking of skills, with significant differences for 'Communication with Senior Doctors', 'Dealing with Clinical Isolation', 'Task Prioritisation' and 'Communication with Patients'. Importantly, there was a significant discrepancy between the medical student expectations and experiences of doctors undertaking work. Our findings suggest that medical staff particularly value task prioritisation skills; however, these are not routinely taught in medical schools. The discrepancy between expectations of students and experience of doctors reinforces the idea that there is a gap in training. Doctors of different grades place different importance on specific non-technical skills with implications for postgraduate training. There is a pressing need for medical schools and deaneries to review non-technical training to include more than communication skills. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

2017-05-01

Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N-45°N, 10°E-65°E and Region-B: 20°N-55°N, 205°E-255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983-2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size.

Student and Faculty Views on Process of Science Skills at a Large, Research-Intensive University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Addis, Elizabeth A.; Powell-Coffman, Jo Anne

2018-01-01

The Association of American Colleges and Universities ranks multiple process of science (POS) skills among the top-10 skills employers seek in college graduates. As part of an effort to explore and align the emphasis on POS skills in our science departments, we sought three things: (a) to determine if faculty and students felt enough time was…

Covariate-adjusted Spearman's rank correlation with probability-scale residuals.

PubMed

Liu, Qi; Li, Chun; Wanga, Valentine; Shepherd, Bryan E

2018-06-01

It is desirable to adjust Spearman's rank correlation for covariates, yet existing approaches have limitations. For example, the traditionally defined partial Spearman's correlation does not have a sensible population parameter, and the conditional Spearman's correlation defined with copulas cannot be easily generalized to discrete variables. We define population parameters for both partial and conditional Spearman's correlation through concordance-discordance probabilities. The definitions are natural extensions of Spearman's rank correlation in the presence of covariates and are general for any orderable random variables. We show that they can be neatly expressed using probability-scale residuals (PSRs). This connection allows us to derive simple estimators. Our partial estimator for Spearman's correlation between X and Y adjusted for Z is the correlation of PSRs from models of X on Z and of Y on Z, which is analogous to the partial Pearson's correlation derived as the correlation of observed-minus-expected residuals. Our conditional estimator is the conditional correlation of PSRs. We describe estimation and inference, and highlight the use of semiparametric cumulative probability models, which allow preservation of the rank-based nature of Spearman's correlation. We conduct simulations to evaluate the performance of our estimators and compare them with other popular measures of association, demonstrating their robustness and efficiency. We illustrate our method in two applications, a biomarker study and a large survey. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

An Asymmetrical Look at Air Force Human Capital Management: More Emphasis on Qualifications and Less on Rank

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

will need to become integrated organizations if they expect to make the most of the knowledge, skills, and abilities of their people . (GAO 2000: 7 ...Case – 316 Rank – E- 7 Comment – It is extremely difficult to seperate rank within the structure of the enlisted/officer structures. People look for...is a life long joyful battle but get’s put aside to easily for convenience. 154 Case – 317 Rank – E- 7 Comment – The majority of Highly

Statistical Optimality in Multipartite Ranking and Ordinal Regression.

PubMed

Uematsu, Kazuki; Lee, Yoonkyung

2015-05-01

Statistical optimality in multipartite ranking is investigated as an extension of bipartite ranking. We consider the optimality of ranking algorithms through minimization of the theoretical risk which combines pairwise ranking errors of ordinal categories with differential ranking costs. The extension shows that for a certain class of convex loss functions including exponential loss, the optimal ranking function can be represented as a ratio of weighted conditional probability of upper categories to lower categories, where the weights are given by the misranking costs. This result also bridges traditional ranking methods such as proportional odds model in statistics with various ranking algorithms in machine learning. Further, the analysis of multipartite ranking with different costs provides a new perspective on non-smooth list-wise ranking measures such as the discounted cumulative gain and preference learning. We illustrate our findings with simulation study and real data analysis.

Comparison of the efficacy and safety of thrombectomy devices in acute stroke : a network meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Saber, Hamidreza; Rajah, Gary B; Kherallah, Riyad Y; Jadhav, Ashutosh P; Narayanan, Sandra

2017-12-15

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is increasingly used for large-vessel occlusions (LVO), but randomized clinical trial (RCT) level data with regard to differences in clinical outcomes of MT devices are limited. We conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) that enables comparison of modern MT devices (Trevo, Solitaire, Aspiration) and strategies (stent retriever vs aspiration) across trials. Relevant RCTs were identified by a systematic review. The efficacy outcome was 90-day functional independence (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0-2). Safety outcomes were 90-day catastrophic outcome (mRS 5-6) and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). Fixed-effect Bayesian NMA was performed to calculate risk estimates and the rank probabilities. In a NMA of six relevant RCTs (SWIFT, TREVO2, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT-PRIME, REVASCAT, THERAPY; total of 871 patients, 472 Solitaire vs medical-only, 108 Aspiration vs medical-only, 178 Trevo vs Merci, and 113 Solitaire vs Merci) with medical-only arm as the reference, Trevo had the greatest functional independence (OR 4.14, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.41-11.80; top rank probability 92%) followed by Solitaire (OR 2.55, 95% CrI 1.75-3.74; top rank probability 72%). Solitaire and Aspiration devices had the greatest top rank probability with respect to low sICH and catastrophic outcomes (76% and 91%, respectively), but without significant differences between each other. In a separate network of seven RCTs (MR-CLEAN, ESCAPE, EXTEND-IA, SWIFT-PRIME, REVASCAT, THERAPY, ASTER; 1737 patients), first-line stent retriever was associated with a higher top rank probability of functional independence than aspiration (95% vs 54%), with comparable safety outcomes. These findings suggest that Trevo and Solitaire devices are associated with a greater likelihood of functional independence whereas Solitaire and Aspiration devices appear to be safer. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

PubMed

MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

2008-08-01

This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies are needed to better understand the explosion risks of UXO.

Importance of the ITF Junior Girls' Circuit in the development of women professional tennis players.

PubMed

Reid, Machar; Crespo, Miguel; Santilli, Luca

2009-11-01

In this study, we examined the extent to which ranking in professional women's tennis can be predicted by that in the top 20 International Tennis Federation's Junior Circuit. The names, nationalities, and birth dates of all players who achieved a top-20 girls' year-end ranking from 1995 to 2002 were recorded, with their progress through the professional ranks tracked to March 2008. Ninety-nine percent of top-20 ranked girls achieved a professional women's ranking. Stepwise regression analysis revealed peak junior ranking and the age at which that rank was achieved to be predictors of future professional ranking (r(2) = 0.133, P < 0.05). The following regression equation showed the achievement of a top-20 junior rank as a reasonable benchmark in the development of professional women players: log-transformed predicted professional rank = -0.552 + (0.032 x junior rank + 0.116 x age at junior rank). The predominant court surface on which junior players honed their skills was also implicated in professional ranking success, with clay-court play linked to the development of higher-ranked players (P < or = 0.01).

An Investigation of High School Students' Perceptions of Reticence and Cognitive Communication Competence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDowell, Earl E.

This study addressed issues of communication apprehension and adaptability by examining relationships between reticence and cognitive communication competence, including differences between gender and age groups. The methodology included participant self-ranking according to a six-dimensional reticence skill system, and ranking according to the…

Surveying Colorado Band Directors' Opinions of Skills and Characteristics Important to Successful Music Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miksza, Peter; Roeder, Matthew; Biggs, Dana

2010-01-01

This study was designed to (a) gather band directors' opinions of skills and characteristics important to teaching and (b) examine the relative effectiveness of electronic versus paper survey methods. Survey respondents ranked lists of music, teaching, and personal skills or characteristics in order of importance and answered open-ended items…

Measuring the Impacts of a Volunteer-Based Community Development Program in Developing Volunteers' Leadership Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meier, Amy; Singletary, Loretta; Hill, George

2012-01-01

This article summarizes the results of an evaluation of the impacts of a community development program to develop leadership skills in its adult volunteers. The evaluation featured 20 questions about leadership skills learned as a result of volunteer experiences. Data analysis strategies beyond a simple means ranking resulted in evidence…

Cultivating Life Skills at a Project-Based Charter School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wurdinger, Scott; Enloe, Walter

2011-01-01

Surveys that focused on academic and life skill development were collected from alumni who attended Avalon Charter School in St Paul, Minnesota. Avalon is a small public charter school that uses project-based learning as their primary teaching method. Forty-two alumni responded to the online survey. Students ranked life skills such as creativity,…

Improving the Rank Precision of Population Health Measures for Small Areas with Longitudinal and Joint Outcome Models

PubMed Central

Athens, Jessica K.; Remington, Patrick L.; Gangnon, Ronald E.

2015-01-01

Objectives The University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute has published the County Health Rankings since 2010. These rankings use population-based data to highlight health outcomes and the multiple determinants of these outcomes and to encourage in-depth health assessment for all United States counties. A significant methodological limitation, however, is the uncertainty of rank estimates, particularly for small counties. To address this challenge, we explore the use of longitudinal and pooled outcome data in hierarchical Bayesian models to generate county ranks with greater precision. Methods In our models we used pooled outcome data for three measure groups: (1) Poor physical and poor mental health days; (2) percent of births with low birth weight and fair or poor health prevalence; and (3) age-specific mortality rates for nine age groups. We used the fixed and random effects components of these models to generate posterior samples of rates for each measure. We also used time-series data in longitudinal random effects models for age-specific mortality. Based on the posterior samples from these models, we estimate ranks and rank quartiles for each measure, as well as the probability of a county ranking in its assigned quartile. Rank quartile probabilities for univariate, joint outcome, and/or longitudinal models were compared to assess improvements in rank precision. Results The joint outcome model for poor physical and poor mental health days resulted in improved rank precision, as did the longitudinal model for age-specific mortality rates. Rank precision for low birth weight births and fair/poor health prevalence based on the univariate and joint outcome models were equivalent. Conclusion Incorporating longitudinal or pooled outcome data may improve rank certainty, depending on characteristics of the measures selected. For measures with different determinants, joint modeling neither improved nor degraded rank precision. This approach suggests a simple way to use existing information to improve the precision of small-area measures of population health. PMID:26098858

An R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In medical informatics, psychology, market research and many other fields, researchers often need to analyze and model ranking data. However, there is no statistical software that provides tools for the comprehensive analysis of ranking data. Here, we present pmr, an R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data with a bundle of tools. The pmr package enables descriptive statistics (mean rank, pairwise frequencies, and marginal matrix), Analytic Hierarchy Process models (with Saaty’s and Koczkodaj’s inconsistencies), probability models (Luce model, distance-based model, and rank-ordered logit model), and the visualization of ranking data with multidimensional preference analysis. Results Examples of the use of package pmr are given using a real ranking dataset from medical informatics, in which 566 Hong Kong physicians ranked the top five incentives (1: competitive pressures; 2: increased savings; 3: government regulation; 4: improved efficiency; 5: improved quality care; 6: patient demand; 7: financial incentives) to the computerization of clinical practice. The mean rank showed that item 4 is the most preferred item and item 3 is the least preferred item, and significance difference was found between physicians’ preferences with respect to their monthly income. A multidimensional preference analysis identified two dimensions that explain 42% of the total variance. The first can be interpreted as the overall preference of the seven items (labeled as “internal/external”), and the second dimension can be interpreted as their overall variance of (labeled as “push/pull factors”). Various statistical models were fitted, and the best were found to be weighted distance-based models with Spearman’s footrule distance. Conclusions In this paper, we presented the R package pmr, the first package for analyzing and modeling ranking data. The package provides insight to users through descriptive statistics of ranking data. Users can also visualize ranking data by applying a thought multidimensional preference analysis. Various probability models for ranking data are also included, allowing users to choose that which is most suitable to their specific situations. PMID:23672645

An R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data.

PubMed

Lee, Paul H; Yu, Philip L H

2013-05-14

In medical informatics, psychology, market research and many other fields, researchers often need to analyze and model ranking data. However, there is no statistical software that provides tools for the comprehensive analysis of ranking data. Here, we present pmr, an R package for analyzing and modeling ranking data with a bundle of tools. The pmr package enables descriptive statistics (mean rank, pairwise frequencies, and marginal matrix), Analytic Hierarchy Process models (with Saaty's and Koczkodaj's inconsistencies), probability models (Luce model, distance-based model, and rank-ordered logit model), and the visualization of ranking data with multidimensional preference analysis. Examples of the use of package pmr are given using a real ranking dataset from medical informatics, in which 566 Hong Kong physicians ranked the top five incentives (1: competitive pressures; 2: increased savings; 3: government regulation; 4: improved efficiency; 5: improved quality care; 6: patient demand; 7: financial incentives) to the computerization of clinical practice. The mean rank showed that item 4 is the most preferred item and item 3 is the least preferred item, and significance difference was found between physicians' preferences with respect to their monthly income. A multidimensional preference analysis identified two dimensions that explain 42% of the total variance. The first can be interpreted as the overall preference of the seven items (labeled as "internal/external"), and the second dimension can be interpreted as their overall variance of (labeled as "push/pull factors"). Various statistical models were fitted, and the best were found to be weighted distance-based models with Spearman's footrule distance. In this paper, we presented the R package pmr, the first package for analyzing and modeling ranking data. The package provides insight to users through descriptive statistics of ranking data. Users can also visualize ranking data by applying a thought multidimensional preference analysis. Various probability models for ranking data are also included, allowing users to choose that which is most suitable to their specific situations.

Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

PubMed

She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

2015-01-01

Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

Teaching procedural skills to medical students: A pilot procedural skills lab.

PubMed

Katz, Laurence M; Finch, Alexander; McKinnish, Tyler; Gilliland, Kurt; Tolleson-Rinehart, Sue; Marks, Bonita L

2017-01-01

Medical students have limited confidence in performing procedural skills. A pilot study was conducted to evaluate the effect of a multifaceted Procedural Skills Lab (PSL) on the confidence of medical students to perform procedural skills. Twelve 2nd year medical students were randomly selected to participate in a pilot PSL. The PSL students met with an instructor for 2 h once a week for 4 weeks. Students participated in a flipped classroom and spaced education program before laboratory sessions that included a cadaver laboratory. Procedural skills included a focused assessment with sonography in trauma (FAST) scan, cardiac echocardiogram, lumbar puncture, arthrocentesis, and insertion of intraosseous and intravenous catheters. Students in the PSL were asked to rank their confidence in performing procedural skills before and after completion of the laboratory sessions (Wilcoxon ranked-sum test). A web-based questionnaire was also emailed to all 2nd year medical students to establish a baseline frequency for observing, performing, and confidence performing procedural skills (Mann-Whitney U-test). Fifty-nine percent (n = 106) of 180 2nd year medical students (n = 12 PSL students [treatment group], n = 94 [control group]) completed the survey. Frequency of observation, performance, and confidence in performing procedural skills was similar between the control and treatment groups at baseline. There was an increased confidence level (p < 0.001) for performing all procedural skills for the treatment group after completion of the PSL. An innovative PSL may increase students' confidence to perform procedural skills. Future studies will examine competency after a PSL.

A Study on How Industrial Pharmacists Rank Competences for Pharmacy Practice: A Case for Industrial Pharmacy Specialization

PubMed Central

Atkinson, Jeffrey; De Paepe, Kristien; Sánchez Pozo, Antonio; Rekkas, Dimitrios; Volmer, Daisy; Hirvonen, Jouni; Bozic, Borut; Skowron, Agnieska; Mircioiu, Constantin; Marcincal, Annie; Koster, Andries; Wilson, Keith; van Schravendijk, Chris

2016-01-01

This paper looks at the way in which industrial pharmacists rank the fundamental competences for pharmacy practice. European industrial pharmacists (n = 135) ranked 68 competences for practice, arranged into 13 clusters of two types (personal and patient care). Results show that, compared to community pharmacists (n = 258), industrial pharmacists rank competences centering on research, development and production of drugs higher, and those centering on patient care lower. Competences centering on values, communication skills, etc. were ranked similarly by the two groups of pharmacists. These results are discussed in the light of the existence or not of an “industrial pharmacy” specialization. PMID:28970386

The Hard Truth about Soft Skills: What Recruiters Look for in Business Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Michael; Baldi, Cindi; Phillips, Carl; Waikar, Avinash

2016-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to better understand what recruiters are looking for in potential job applicants. Past studies tend to be unclear on how GPA ranks in relation to soft skills (traits and social skills important in interacting with others). Also, most of these studies were conducted at either Ivy League colleges, where the admissions…

Enhancing College Students' Life Skills through Project Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wurdinger, Scott; Qureshi, Mariam

2015-01-01

This study examined whether life skills could be developed in a Project Based Learning (PBL) course. The participants were students enrolled in a graduate level PBL course. The same 35-question survey was given to students at the beginning and end of the course, and students were asked to rank their life skills using a Likert scale. Additionally,…

Rankings, Standards, and Competition: Task vs. Scale Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Stephen M.; Tor, Avishalom

2007-01-01

Research showing how upward social comparison breeds competitive behavior has so far conflated local comparisons in "task" performance (e.g. a test score) with comparisons on a more general "scale" (i.e. an underlying skill). Using a ranking methodology (Garcia, Tor, & Gonzalez, 2006) to separate task and scale comparisons, Studies 1-2 reveal that…

Automatic Generation and Ranking of Questions for Critical Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Ming; Calvo, Rafael A.; Rus, Vasile

2014-01-01

Critical review skill is one important aspect of academic writing. Generic trigger questions have been widely used to support this activity. When students have a concrete topic in mind, trigger questions are less effective if they are too general. This article presents a learning-to-rank based system which automatically generates specific trigger…

A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

2011-01-01

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

Comparing energy sources for surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials.

PubMed

Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D

2015-08-01

Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slater, Paul B.

Paralleling our recent computationally intensive (quasi-Monte Carlo) work for the case N=4 (e-print quant-ph/0308037), we undertake the task for N=6 of computing to high numerical accuracy, the formulas of Sommers and Zyczkowski (e-print quant-ph/0304041) for the (N{sup 2}-1)-dimensional volume and (N{sup 2}-2)-dimensional hyperarea of the (separable and nonseparable) NxN density matrices, based on the Bures (minimal monotone) metric--and also their analogous formulas (e-print quant-ph/0302197) for the (nonmonotone) flat Hilbert-Schmidt metric. With the same seven 10{sup 9} well-distributed ('low-discrepancy') sample points, we estimate the unknown volumes and hyperareas based on five additional (monotone) metrics of interest, including the Kubo-Mori and Wigner-Yanase.more » Further, we estimate all of these seven volume and seven hyperarea (unknown) quantities when restricted to the separable density matrices. The ratios of separable volumes (hyperareas) to separable plus nonseparable volumes (hyperareas) yield estimates of the separability probabilities of generically rank-6 (rank-5) density matrices. The (rank-6) separability probabilities obtained based on the 35-dimensional volumes appear to be--independently of the metric (each of the seven inducing Haar measure) employed--twice as large as those (rank-5 ones) based on the 34-dimensional hyperareas. (An additional estimate--33.9982--of the ratio of the rank-6 Hilbert-Schmidt separability probability to the rank-4 one is quite clearly close to integral too.) The doubling relationship also appears to hold for the N=4 case for the Hilbert-Schmidt metric, but not the others. We fit simple exact formulas to our estimates of the Hilbert-Schmidt separable volumes and hyperareas in both the N=4 and N=6 cases.« less

Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient sample sizes, and the S2S TC predictions are relatively more skillful. Various skill scores will be applied to genesis and ACE, with subsets of data binned based on ENSO and MJO status. We will also look at MJO and ENSO's impact on TC tracks through cluster analysis, and analyze model skill in each cluster.

Ranking procedure for partial discriminant analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beckman, R.J.; Johnson, M.E.

1981-09-01

A rank procedure developed by Broffitt, Randles, and Hogg (1976) is modified to control the conditional probability of misclassification given that classification has been attempted. This modification leads to a useful solution to the two-population partial discriminant analysis problem for even moderately sized training sets.

Adolescents' perspectives on food literacy and its impact on their dietary behaviours.

PubMed

Ronto, Rimante; Ball, Lauren; Pendergast, Donna; Harris, Neil

2016-12-01

Food literacy has been identified as a promising approach to support healthy dietary behaviours in adolescents. However, adolescents' perspectives on food literacy and the impact it could have on their dietary behaviours are not well understood. This study explored adolescents' perspectives on the potential for food literacy to influence their dietary behaviours. Fifteen focus groups were conducted with adolescents aged 12-17 years and encompassed quantitative and qualitative questions. Adolescents were asked to rank 22 aspects of food literacy in order of importance and discuss their responses as a group. Overall, adolescents ranked food and nutrition knowledge as more important than food skills and food capacity. Although adolescents stated that food and nutrition knowledge is important for them to eat well, the majority did not apply their knowledge to practice due to low confidence in food skills. Participants demonstrated very limited knowledge about macro aspects of food literacy such as animal welfare or environmental sustainability. Food skills such as planning and managing budgets for food and time for food shopping were ranked as least important due to being presently irrelevant but recognised as important later in life. Adolescents reported being very interested in developing food skills such as food preparation but they had very limited opportunities due to lack of food literacy education in home and high school settings. The high school setting provides an ideal opportunity for adolescents to improve their food literacy in particular food skills through home economics. Future research should develop and measure adolescents' food literacy and its impact on their dietary behaviours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew

2014-01-01

In this study we implement and evaluate a simple 'hybrid' forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble's (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The 'hybrid approach' described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Making the Randolph-Sheppard Program More Competitive: Results of a National Training Needs Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, J. Elton

1999-01-01

A study involving 97 Business Enterprise Program (BEP) counselors and 99 licensed facility managers from 37 states found that both groups ranked profitability issues and leadership skills as the top two training priorities for a two-day Randolph-Sheppard regional training conference. Crisis management and food safety were also ranked highly. (CR)

Instructional Comparative Advantages May Exist Despite the "Comprehensive Uniformity" of Traditional Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrifield, John

2012-01-01

A special tabulation of individual student scores from the Texas Assessment of Academic Skills (TAAS) test allowed a ranking of Texas schools according to test score changes ("value added"). The rankings varied greatly by student subpopulation. That is, the vast majority of schools are much more effective with some kinds of students than…

An assessment of the impact of entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists on pharmaceutical business performance in Jos metropolis, Nigeria.

PubMed

Asieba, Iyeseun O; Nmadu, Teresa M

2018-01-01

Community pharmacy has been a lucrative area of practice for pharmacists in Jos, Nigeria, until about the turn of the millennium where a decline in viability of the business has been observed. This study assessed the entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists, the business performance of community pharmacies and the impact of their entrepreneurial skills on business performance. A cross sectional survey was conducted by administering a pretested questionnaire to 30 community pharmacists in Jos. An adaptation of the Bernelli model and the expanded Katz (1974)/Herron (1990) Skill Typology Model was used to assess nine entrepreneurial skills - product, organizational, industry, networking, leadership, executive, entrepreneurial, marketing and money skills; while sales growth, net profit and stock growth were used to assess business performance. Frequency distribution of results was presented, with further analysis done with the Epi-Info software using the chi square test of association. The results from this study showed that community pharmacies in Jos do possess requisite entrepreneurial skills, but to varying extents. Product skills ranked highest while money skills and entrepreneurial skills ranked least, portraying a need for skills enhancement in these areas. Business performance was suboptimal, being rated as average or poor by 56.6% of respondents. However, most respondents (90%) still assessed their businesses as profitable. Money skills had a significant impact on business performance (P=0.03) and stock growth (P=0.04); while stock growth was significantly affected by leadership skills (P=0.002) and entrepreneurial skills (0.02). Net profit was significantly affected by industry skills (P=0.008). Community pharmacy business is still a profitable business venture in Jos though business performance is sub optimal. The entrepreneurial skills set of a community pharmacist set has an impact on business performance with money skills, leadership skills and entrepreneurial skills being most significant. This study recommended that entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists in Nigeria are further developed to improve pharmaceutical business performance.

Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Q. J.; Zhou, Senlin; Feikema, Paul

2016-10-01

Statistical seasonal forecasts of 3-month streamflow totals are released in Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology and updated on a monthly basis. The forecasts are often released in the second week of the forecast period, due to the onerous forecast production process. The current service relies on models built using data for complete calendar months, meaning the forecast production process cannot begin until the first day of the forecast period. Somehow, the bureau needs to transition to a service that provides forecasts before the beginning of the forecast period; timelier forecast release will become critical as sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts are developed. Increasing the forecast lead time to one month ahead is not considered a viable option for Australian catchments that typically lack any predictability associated with snowmelt. The bureau's forecasts are built around Bayesian joint probability models that have antecedent streamflow, rainfall and climate indices as predictors. In this study, we adapt the modelling approach so that forecasts have any number of days of lead time. Daily streamflow and sea surface temperatures are used to develop predictors based on 28-day sliding windows. Forecasts are produced for 23 forecast locations with 0-14- and 21-day lead time. The forecasts are assessed in terms of continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) skill score and reliability metrics. CRPS skill scores, on average, reduce monotonically with increase in days of lead time, although both positive and negative differences are observed. Considering only skilful forecast locations, CRPS skill scores at 7-day lead time are reduced on average by 4 percentage points, with differences largely contained within +5 to -15 percentage points. A flexible forecasting system that allows for any number of days of lead time could benefit Australian seasonal streamflow forecast users by allowing more time for forecasts to be disseminated, comprehended and made use of prior to the commencement of a forecast season. The system would allow for forecasts to be updated if necessary.

Efficient marginalization to compute protein posterior probabilities from shotgun mass spectrometry data

PubMed Central

Serang, Oliver; MacCoss, Michael J.; Noble, William Stafford

2010-01-01

The problem of identifying proteins from a shotgun proteomics experiment has not been definitively solved. Identifying the proteins in a sample requires ranking them, ideally with interpretable scores. In particular, “degenerate” peptides, which map to multiple proteins, have made such a ranking difficult to compute. The problem of computing posterior probabilities for the proteins, which can be interpreted as confidence in a protein’s presence, has been especially daunting. Previous approaches have either ignored the peptide degeneracy problem completely, addressed it by computing a heuristic set of proteins or heuristic posterior probabilities, or by estimating the posterior probabilities with sampling methods. We present a probabilistic model for protein identification in tandem mass spectrometry that recognizes peptide degeneracy. We then introduce graph-transforming algorithms that facilitate efficient computation of protein probabilities, even for large data sets. We evaluate our identification procedure on five different well-characterized data sets and demonstrate our ability to efficiently compute high-quality protein posteriors. PMID:20712337

Workforce Development for Manufacturing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernard, Rosalie

2007-01-01

In a recent skills gap report, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) noted some disturbing trends in the gap between the demand for highly skilled manufacturing workers and the potential supply. The NAM report notes that smaller manufacturers rank finding qualified workers ahead of energy costs, taxes and government regulations on the…

Simulation for learning and teaching procedural skills: the state of the science.

PubMed

Nestel, Debra; Groom, Jeffrey; Eikeland-Husebø, Sissel; O'Donnell, John M

2011-08-01

Simulation is increasingly used to support learning of procedural skills. Our panel was tasked with summarizing the "best evidence." We addressed the following question: To what extent does simulation support learning and teaching in procedural skills? We conducted a literature search from 2000 to 2010 using Medline, CINAHL, ERIC, and PSYCHINFO databases. Inclusion criteria were established and then data extracted from abstracts according to several categories. Although secondary sources of literature were sourced from key informants and participants at the "Research Consensus Summit: State of the Science," they were not included in the data extraction process but were used to inform discussion. Eighty-one of 1,575 abstracts met inclusion criteria. The uses of simulation for learning and teaching procedural skills were diverse. The most commonly reported simulator type was manikins (n = 17), followed by simulated patients (n = 14), anatomic simulators (eg, part-task) (n = 12), and others. For research design, most abstracts (n = 52) were at Level IV of the National Health and Medical Research Council classification (ie, case series, posttest, or pretest/posttest, with no control group, narrative reviews, and editorials). The most frequent Best Evidence Medical Education ranking was for conclusions probable (n = 37). Using the modified Kirkpatrick scale for impact of educational intervention, the most frequent classification was for modification of knowledge and/or skills (Level 2b) (n = 52). Abstracts assessed skills (n = 47), knowledge (n = 32), and attitude (n = 15) with the majority demonstrating improvements after simulation-based interventions. Studies focused on immediate gains and skills assessments were usually conducted in simulation. The current state of the science finds that simulation usually leads to improved knowledge and skills. Learners and instructors express high levels of satisfaction with the method. While most studies focus on short-term gains attained in the simulation setting, a small number support the transfer of simulation learning to clinical practice. Further study is needed to optimize the alignment of learner, instructor, simulator, setting, and simulation for learning and teaching procedural skills. Instructional design and educational theory, contextualization, transferability, accessibility, and scalability must all be considered in simulation-based education programs. More consistently, robust research designs are required to strengthen the evidence.

The image of health sciences librarians: how we see ourselves and how patrons see us.

PubMed Central

Blackwelder, M B

1996-01-01

A survey was conducted to solicit data related to health professionals image of librarians. Physicians, residents, nurses, medical students, dentists, pharmacists, physical therapists, and occupational therapists were questioned about their experiences with and opinions of librarians, particularly the skills and characteristics needed by helpful, successful librarians. Health sciences librarians were also questioned about their own professional image and their perceptions of their patrons' impression of librarians. Librarians and health professionals alike ranked good communication as the most important skill for librarians. Computer or technological skills were ranked fourth by librarians but second by health professionals. Although librarians tended to describe themselves in slightly more positive terms than did their patrons, health professionals viewed librarians as approachable, responsive, supportive, and open to change. Health professionals also reported that they received accurate, reliable, and timely information from librarians and that this information was valuable. PMID:8883982

Maternal rank influences the outcome of aggressive interactions between immature chimpanzees

PubMed Central

Markham, A. Catherine; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Pusey, Anne E.; Murray, Carson M.

2015-01-01

For many long-lived mammalian species, extended maternal investment has a profound effect on offspring integration in complex social environments. One component of this investment may be aiding young in aggressive interactions, which can set the stage for offspring social position later in life. Here we examined maternal effects on dyadic aggressive interactions between immature (<12 years) chimpanzees. Specifically, we tested whether relative maternal rank predicted the probability of winning an aggressive interaction. We also examined maternal responses to aggressive interactions to determine whether maternal interventions explain interaction outcomes. Using a 12-year behavioural data set (2000–2011) from Gombe National Park, Tanzania, we found that relative maternal rank predicted the probability of winning aggressive interactions in male–male and male–female aggressive interactions: offspring were more likely to win if their mother outranked their opponent’s mother. Female–female aggressive interactions occurred infrequently (two interactions), so could not be analysed. The probability of winning was also higher for relatively older individuals in male–male interactions, and for males in male–female interactions. Maternal interventions were rare (7.3% of 137 interactions), suggesting that direct involvement does not explain the outcome for the vast majority of aggressive interactions. These findings provide important insight into the ontogeny of aggressive behaviour and early dominance relationships in wild apes and highlight a potential social advantage for offspring of higher-ranking mothers. This advantage may be particularly pronounced for sons, given male philopatry in chimpanzees and the potential for social status early in life to translate more directly to adult rank. PMID:25624528

Solving the Mega-Crisis in Education: Concrete, Cost-Effective Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Hershey; Hampton-Sosa, William; Friedman, Linda Weiser

2014-01-01

The United States will lose its ability to compete in the global knowledge economy if its educational system is not significantly improved. It now ranks 13th in college graduation rates. In a recent 24-country Survey of Adult Skills, the U.S. ranked 16th in literary proficiency and 21st in numeracy proficiency. Without an intervention, the United…

A Delphi survey of traits of effective physiatric leaders.

PubMed

Braddom, C L; Braddom, R L

1986-11-01

A Delphi study of 14 physiatric leaders, 10 men and 4 women, ages 30 to 65, to determine their most important leadership characteristics, asked them to list the characteristics they considered most important for effective leadership. Responses were collated and any trait mentioned by at least three was put into a second survey, in which they were asked to rank the traits. A third survey gave them the results of the second, and asked for a final ranking. Fourteen traits made the final survey, in which the ten most important (in descending order of importance) were Organizational Skill, Commitment, Vision/Purpose, Communication Ability, Ability to Delegate, Sense of Ethics, Decisiveness, Knowledgeable, Flexibility/Adaptability and Analytical/Problem Solving Skill.

Model assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzpatrick, P. J.; Lau, Y.; Alaka, G.; Marks, F.

2017-12-01

Validation comparisons of multiple models presents challenges when skill levels are similar, especially in regimes dominated by the climatological mean. Assessing skill separation will require advanced validation metrics and identifying adeptness in extreme events, but maintain simplicity for management decisions. Flexibility for operations is also an asset. This work postulates a weighted tally and consolidation technique which ranks results by multiple types of metrics. Variables include absolute error, bias, acceptable absolute error percentages, outlier metrics, model efficiency, Pearson correlation, Kendall's Tau, reliability Index, multiplicative gross error, and root mean squared differences. Other metrics, such as root mean square difference and rank correlation were also explored, but removed when the information was discovered to be generally duplicative to other metrics. While equal weights are applied, weights could be altered depending for preferred metrics. Two examples are shown comparing ocean models' currents and tropical cyclone products, including experimental products. The importance of using magnitude and direction for tropical cyclone track forecasts instead of distance, along-track, and cross-track are discussed. Tropical cyclone intensity and structure prediction are also assessed. Vector correlations are not included in the ranking process, but found useful in an independent context, and will be briefly reported.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

The Probability Evaluation Game: An Instrument to Highlight the Skill of Reflexive Listening

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Clare

2016-01-01

This paper describes the development of the Probability Evaluation Game (PEG): an innovative teaching instrument that emphasises the sophistication of listening and highlights listening as a key skill for accounting practitioners. Whilst in a roundtable format, playing PEG involves participants individually evaluating a series of probability terms…

Faculty Beliefs and Practices about Writing Initiatives as Classroom Strategies and Institutional Objectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kreiger, Joan

2013-01-01

Employers consistently rank "writing skills" as a desired quality of college graduates; however studies show that students' writing skills often fall short of the mark (AAC& U, 2008; Charting the Future, 2006). Writing Across the Curriculum (WAC) initiatives are one way universities attempt to improve student writing and promote…

Toward a World-Class Workforce.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Illinois State Council on Vocational Education, Springfield.

A study of business and labor was conducted to define the performance skills expected of those entering the workplace in the 1990s and beyond. Survey respondents were 1,120 business people and 26 labor representatives in Illinois of whom 90 participated in follow-up roundtable discussions. Respondents identified and rank ordered nine basic skills:…

Invasion Science: A Horizon Scan of Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

Treesearch

Anthony Ricciardi; Tim M. Blackburn; James T. Carlton; Jaimie T.A. Dick; Philip E. Hulme; Josephine C. Iacarella; Jonathan M. Jeschke; Andrew M. Liebhold; Julie L. Lockwood; Hugh J. MacIsaac; Petr Pyšek; David M. Richardson; Gregory M. Ruiz; Daniel Simberloff; William J. Sutherland; David A. Wardle; David C. Aldridge

2017-01-01

We identified emerging scientific, technological, and sociopolitical issues likely to affect how biological invasions are studied and managed over the next two decades. Issues were ranked according to their probability of emergence, pervasiveness, potential impact, and novelty. Top-ranked issues include the application of genomic modification tools to control invasions...

A stochastic Markov chain approach for tennis: Monte Carlo simulation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslam, Kamran

This dissertation describes the computational formulation of probability density functions (pdfs) that facilitate head-to-head match simulations in tennis along with ranking systems developed from their use. A background on the statistical method used to develop the pdfs , the Monte Carlo method, and the resulting rankings are included along with a discussion on ranking methods currently being used both in professional sports and in other applications. Using an analytical theory developed by Newton and Keller in [34] that defines a tennis player's probability of winning a game, set, match and single elimination tournament, a computational simulation has been developed in Matlab that allows further modeling not previously possible with the analytical theory alone. Such experimentation consists of the exploration of non-iid effects, considers the concept the varying importance of points in a match and allows an unlimited number of matches to be simulated between unlikely opponents. The results of these studies have provided pdfs that accurately model an individual tennis player's ability along with a realistic, fair and mathematically sound platform for ranking them.

What skills should new internal medicine interns have in july? A national survey of internal medicine residency program directors.

PubMed

Angus, Steven; Vu, T Robert; Halvorsen, Andrew J; Aiyer, Meenakshy; McKown, Kevin; Chmielewski, Amy F; McDonald, Furman S

2014-03-01

The transition from medical student to intern may cause stress and burnout in new interns and the delivery of suboptimal patient care. Despite a formal set of subinternship curriculum guidelines, program directors have expressed concern regarding the skill set of new interns and the lack of standardization in that skill set among interns from different medical schools. To address these issues, the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Next Accreditation System focuses on the development of a competency-based education continuum spanning undergraduate, graduate, and continuing medical education. In 2010, the Clerkship Directors in Internal Medicine subinternship task force, in collaboration with the Association of Program Directors in Internal Medicine survey committee, surveyed internal medicine residency program directors to determine which competencies or skills they expected from new medical school graduates. The authors summarized the results using categories of interest. In both an item rank list and free-text responses, program directors were nearly uniform in ranking the skills they deemed most important for new interns-organization and time management and prioritization skills; effective communication skills; basic clinical skills; and knowing when to ask for assistance. Stakeholders should use the results of this survey as they develop a milestone-based curriculum for the fourth year of medical school and for the internal medicine subinternship. By doing so, they should develop a standardized set of skills that meet program directors' expectations, reduce the stress of transitions across the educational continuum, and improve the quality of patient care.

Can we well assess the relative efficacy and tolerability of a new drug versus others at the time of marketing authorization using mixed treatment comparisons? A detailed illustration with escitalopram.

PubMed

Llorca, Pierre-Michel; Lançon, Christophe; Brignone, Mélanie; Painchault, Caroline; Rive, Benoit; Toumi, Mondher; François, Clément

2015-01-01

To assess the variation of relative efficacy and tolerability of an antidepressant versus others based on both pre-marketing (registration studies) and post-marketing studies versus pre-marketing studies only in patients with major depressive disorder. The relative efficacy and tolerability of antidepressants was assessed by mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) using data acquired over two time periods: before registration of the reference drug escitalopram (1989-2002) and up to 5 years later (1989-2007). Ranking probability outputs were presented for efficacy, using change from baseline to 8 weeks on Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale total score, and tolerability, using withdrawals due to adverse events. The relative efficacy and tolerability of some selected antidepressants, including escitalopram, varied considerably over the two time periods. The improved relative efficacy and tolerability of escitalopram over time, compared with citalopram, was demonstrated by greater separation of ranking probability curves for efficacy and tolerability. In 2002, escitalopram ranked low with 13.9% and 5.1% probability of being in the top four antidepressants' relative efficacy and tolerability, respectively. In 2007, ranking probabilities for relative efficacy and tolerability of escitalopram increased to 52.5% and 82.1%, respectively. Time of marketing authorization may not be the most appropriate time to evaluate the relative efficacy and tolerability of a new antidepressant based on MTC approach due to the asymmetry of information between new and older compounds. However, the first evaluation of relative effect of a new drug for health technology assessment recommendations is commonly done at this time. Re-evaluation of a drug several years after its launch is likely to provide a more accurate indication of its relative efficacy and tolerability.

Integrating 360° behavior-orientated feedback in communication skills training for medical undergraduates: concept, acceptance and students' self-ratings of communication competence.

PubMed

Engerer, Cosima; Berberat, Pascal O; Dinkel, Andreas; Rudolph, Baerbel; Sattel, Heribert; Wuensch, Alexander

2016-10-18

Feedback is considered a key didactic element in medical education, especially for teaching of communication skills. This study investigates the impact of a best evidence-based practice feedback concept within the context of communication skills training (CST). We evaluate this concept for acceptance and changes in students self-ratings of communication competence. Our CST integrating feedback process comprises a short theoretical introduction presenting standards for good communication and a constructive 360° feedback from three perspectives: feedback from peers, from standardized patients (SPs), and from a trainer. Feed-forward process was facilitated for documenting suggestions for improvements based on observable behaviors to maximize learning benefits. Our CST was applied to four groups of eight or nine students. We assessed the data on students' acceptance using a 6-point scale ranging from very good (1) to poor (6), applied a forced choice question to rank didactic items, and assessed changes in student' self-ratings of their communication competence on a 10-cm visual analogue scale (VAS). Thirty-four medical undergraduates (82 % female, 18 % male) in their first clinical year, with an average age of 21.4 years (SD = 1.0), participated in the new training. The concept achieved high acceptance from good to very good: overall impression (M = 1.56), sufficient interaction for discussion (M = 1.15), and constructive learning atmosphere (M = 1.18). Specific elements, such as practical training with SPs (M = 1.18) and feedback by SPs (M = 1.12), showed highest acceptance. The forced choice ranking placed all feedback elements at the top of the list (feedback (FB) by SPs, rank 2; FB by trainer, rank 3; FB by colleagues, rank 4), whereas theoretical elements were at the bottom (theoretical introduction, rank 7; memory card, rank 9). Overall, student self-ratings of communication competence significantly improved in nine of the ten communication items assessed by VAS and showed a pre-post effect size of ES = 0.74 on a global rating. This study demonstrates that the training concept based on 360° behavioral feedback was well accepted and generated significant changes in student self-ratings of their communication competence. Further research is needed to determine the effects on objective communication performance.

The Effect of Simulation-Based Learning on Prospective Teachers' Inference Skills in Teaching Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koparan, Timur; Yilmaz, Gül Kaleli

2015-01-01

The effect of simulation-based probability teaching on the prospective teachers' inference skills has been examined with this research. In line with this purpose, it has been aimed to examine the design, implementation and efficiency of a learning environment for experimental probability. Activities were built on modeling, simulation and the…

Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty by dressing deterministic and ensemble forecasts; a comparison, with application to Meuse and Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Davids, F.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

2017-12-01

Two statistical post-processing approaches for estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty are compared: (i) 'dressing' of a deterministic forecast by adding a single, combined estimate of both hydrological and meteorological uncertainty and (ii) 'dressing' of an ensemble streamflow forecast by adding an estimate of hydrological uncertainty to each individual streamflow ensemble member. Both approaches aim to produce an estimate of the 'total uncertainty' that captures both the meteorological and hydrological uncertainties. They differ in the degree to which they make use of statistical post-processing techniques. In the 'lumped' approach, both sources of uncertainty are lumped by post-processing deterministic forecasts using their verifying observations. In the 'source-specific' approach, the meteorological uncertainties are estimated by an ensemble of weather forecasts. These ensemble members are routed through a hydrological model and a realization of the probability distribution of hydrological uncertainties (only) is then added to each ensemble member to arrive at an estimate of the total uncertainty. The techniques are applied to one location in the Meuse basin and three locations in the Rhine basin. Resulting forecasts are assessed for their reliability and sharpness, as well as compared in terms of multiple verification scores including the relative mean error, Brier Skill Score, Mean Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, Relative Operating Characteristic Score and Relative Economic Value. The dressed deterministic forecasts are generally more reliable than the dressed ensemble forecasts, but the latter are sharper. On balance, however, they show similar quality across a range of verification metrics, with the dressed ensembles coming out slightly better. Some additional analyses are suggested. Notably, these include statistical post-processing of the meteorological forecasts in order to increase their reliability, thus increasing the reliability of the streamflow forecasts produced with ensemble meteorological forcings.

Highly Competitive Reindeer Males Control Female Behavior during the Rut

PubMed Central

Body, Guillaume; Weladji, Robert B.; Holand, Øystein; Nieminen, Mauri

2014-01-01

During the rut, female ungulates move among harems or territories, either to sample mates or to avoid harassment. Females may be herded by a male, may stay with a preferred male, or aggregate near a dominant male to avoid harassment from other males. In fission-fusion group dynamics, female movement is best described by the group’s fission probability, instead of inter-harem movement. In this study, we tested whether male herding ability, female mate choice or harassment avoidance influence fission probability. We recorded group dynamics in a herd of reindeer Rangifer tarandus equipped with GPS collars with activity sensors. We found no evidence that the harassment level in the group affected fission probability, or that females sought high rank (i.e. highly competitive and hence successful) males. However, the behavior of high ranked males decreased fission probability. Male herding activity was synchronous with the decrease of fission probability observed during the rut. We concluded that male herding behavior stabilized groups, thereby increasing average group size and consequently the opportunity for sexual selection. PMID:24759701

An assessment of the impact of entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists on pharmaceutical business performance in Jos metropolis, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Nmadu, Teresa M.

2018-01-01

Background: Community pharmacy has been a lucrative area of practice for pharmacists in Jos, Nigeria, until about the turn of the millennium where a decline in viability of the business has been observed. Objective: This study assessed the entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists, the business performance of community pharmacies and the impact of their entrepreneurial skills on business performance. Methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted by administering a pretested questionnaire to 30 community pharmacists in Jos. An adaptation of the Bernelli model and the expanded Katz (1974)/Herron (1990) Skill Typology Model was used to assess nine entrepreneurial skills - product, organizational, industry, networking, leadership, executive, entrepreneurial, marketing and money skills; while sales growth, net profit and stock growth were used to assess business performance. Frequency distribution of results was presented, with further analysis done with the Epi-Info software using the chi square test of association. Result: The results from this study showed that community pharmacies in Jos do possess requisite entrepreneurial skills, but to varying extents. Product skills ranked highest while money skills and entrepreneurial skills ranked least, portraying a need for skills enhancement in these areas. Business performance was suboptimal, being rated as average or poor by 56.6% of respondents. However, most respondents (90%) still assessed their businesses as profitable. Money skills had a significant impact on business performance (P=0.03) and stock growth (P=0.04); while stock growth was significantly affected by leadership skills (P=0.002) and entrepreneurial skills (0.02). Net profit was significantly affected by industry skills (P=0.008). Conclusions: Community pharmacy business is still a profitable business venture in Jos though business performance is sub optimal. The entrepreneurial skills set of a community pharmacist set has an impact on business performance with money skills, leadership skills and entrepreneurial skills being most significant. This study recommended that entrepreneurial skills of community pharmacists in Nigeria are further developed to improve pharmaceutical business performance. PMID:29619138

Correlates of Persistence and Achievement: Student Support Services at a New England Research University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinez, Marla D.

1999-01-01

A study examined the predictability of student persistence and achievement, based on Scholastic Assessment Test scores, high school rank, mother's education, birth order, and study-skills course grade, in a group of students served by a federal Student Support Services program. Some variables (SAT scores, study-skills course grade) were more…

Executive skills 21: a forecast of leadership skills and associated competencies required by naval hospital administrators into the 21st century.

PubMed

Sentell, J W; Finstuen, K

1998-01-01

Those in the Naval Medical Department are experiencing an exciting time of bridled chaos and creative change. Many mid-career officers are uncertain of the leadership behaviors and skills that will be necessary for successful managerial careers. Changes in the method of health care delivery of this nation combined with the reengineering of the armed forces' world-wide mission has driven military medical leaders to expand their professional skills, knowledge, and abilities beyond the clinical sciences. This research identifies the most critical domains in the science of health care administration and differentiates and ranks job skill, knowledge, and ability requirements that will be necessary for successful health care management into the 21st century. Top Naval hospital executives responded to two iterations of a Delphi inquiry. These medical leaders identified 106 unique issues that were content-analyzed into nine domains by a neutral, expert panel. Domains, in order of ranked importance, were leadership, health care delivery systems, cost-finance, technology, accessibility, professional staff relations, marketing, quality-risk management, and ethics. In the second Delphi iteration, hospital executives reviewed domain results and rated identified job requirements on their required job importance. The top-10 rated skills, knowledge, and abilities are reported. Results indicated that although a business orientation is needed for organizational survival, an emphasis on person-oriented skills, knowledge, and abilities is required for future success as a health care administrator in the Naval health care system.

Identification of the Learning Styles and "On-the-Job" Learning Methods Implemented by Nurses for Promoting Their Professional Knowledge and Skills.

PubMed

Rassin, Michal; Kurzweil, Yaffa; Maoz, Yael

2015-05-09

The aim of this study was to identify the learning styles and methods used by nurses to promote their professional knowledge and skills. 928 nurses from 11 hospitals across Israel completed 2 questionnaires, (1) Kolb's Learning Style Inventory, Version 3.1. and (2) the On-The-Job Learning Styles Questionnaire for the Nursing Profession. The most common learning style was the convergent style. The other learning styles were rated in the following descending order: accommodation, assimilation, and divergence. The on-the-job learning style consistently ranked highest was experience of relevant situations. On the other hand, seeking knowledge from books, journals, television, or the Internet was ranked lowest on all the indicators examined. With respect to general and on-the-job learning styles, statistically significant differences were found between groups of nurses by: country of birth, gender, department, age, education, and role. Nurses required to take more personal responsibility for their own professional development by deepening their self-learning skills.

Evaluation of retention of knowledge and skills imparted to first-year medical students through basic life support training.

PubMed

Pande, Sushma; Pande, Santosh; Parate, Vrushali; Pande, Sanket; Sukhsohale, Neelam

2014-03-01

Poor awareness among medical graduates about basic life support (BLS) is a matter of great concern. The presence of a trained rescuer is the key determinant of ultimate survival from life-threatening emergencies. To achieve this goal, early exposure to such life-saving skills is the right decision to foster these skills for medical students, which can be reenforced in succeeding years. Forty-two first-year medical students participated in this study. The entire procedure consisted of faculty training, assessment of knowledge of students by a pretest questionnaire, a lecture, a demonstration, and hands-on training using a mannequin (with special emphasis on the site, depth, rate, and sustainment of uninterrupted chest compressions). Posttest 1 was conducted to assess the knowledge gained. The retention of knowledge and skills in the second year was evaluated by posttest 2 and directly observed procedural skills, respectively. Student feedback was collected on five-point Likert scale. Analysis using a Freidman test indicated the mean rank for posttest 1 (2.81) to be significantly higher than the pretest (1.26), indicating a gain in knowledge. The mean rank for posttest 2 (1.93) was lower than for posttest 1 (2.81) but was significantly higher compared with the pretest (1.26), indicating a significant retention of knowledge during the second year. Directly observed procedural skill evaluation showed that 7% students could perform all the seven steps correctly and that 74% students could perform three or more steps correctly, signifying a good retention of skill. Two students taught BLS skills to their family members as well. The results of this study suggest that the program provides students with sound basic knowledge and adequate practical skills in BLS.

The Probabilities of Unique Events

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-30

social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only...of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of

The ranking probability approach and its usage in design and analysis of large-scale studies.

PubMed

Kuo, Chia-Ling; Zaykin, Dmitri

2013-01-01

In experiments with many statistical tests there is need to balance type I and type II error rates while taking multiplicity into account. In the traditional approach, the nominal [Formula: see text]-level such as 0.05 is adjusted by the number of tests, [Formula: see text], i.e., as 0.05/[Formula: see text]. Assuming that some proportion of tests represent "true signals", that is, originate from a scenario where the null hypothesis is false, power depends on the number of true signals and the respective distribution of effect sizes. One way to define power is for it to be the probability of making at least one correct rejection at the assumed [Formula: see text]-level. We advocate an alternative way of establishing how "well-powered" a study is. In our approach, useful for studies with multiple tests, the ranking probability [Formula: see text] is controlled, defined as the probability of making at least [Formula: see text] correct rejections while rejecting hypotheses with [Formula: see text] smallest P-values. The two approaches are statistically related. Probability that the smallest P-value is a true signal (i.e., [Formula: see text]) is equal to the power at the level [Formula: see text], to an very good excellent approximation. Ranking probabilities are also related to the false discovery rate and to the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis. We study properties of our approach when the effect size distribution is replaced for convenience by a single "typical" value taken to be the mean of the underlying distribution. We conclude that its performance is often satisfactory under this simplification; however, substantial imprecision is to be expected when [Formula: see text] is very large and [Formula: see text] is small. Precision is largely restored when three values with the respective abundances are used instead of a single typical effect size value.

Implementation of Real-World Experiential Learning in a Food Science Course Using a Food Industry-Integrated Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hollis, Francine H.; Eren, Fulya

2016-01-01

Success skills have been ranked as the most important core competency for new food science professionals to have by food science graduates and their employers. It is imperative that food science instructors promote active learning in food science courses through experiential learning activities to enhance student success skills such as oral and…

Working to Learn, Learning to Work: Unlocking the Potential of New York's Adult College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilliard, Tom; Schimke, Karen, Ed.; Bowles, Jonathan, Ed.

2007-01-01

The vitality of New York State's economy depends on deepening the ranks of the skilled workforce, a need that will grow more urgent over the next several years as the Baby Boomer generation moves into retirement. If employers cannot fill high-skilled positions they will lose competitive ground, and some may leave. New York has successfully…

Employee Characteristics and Skills Valued by Northern Virginia Employers. Business Needs Assessment Study No. 1. Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Northern Virginia Community Coll., Annandale. Office of Institutional Research.

This paper reports findings of a regional survey of North Virginia businesses. The Office of Institutional Research (OIR) at Northern Virginia Community College (NVCC) conducted the research in an effort to assess the educational and training needs of area businesses. Employers ranked employee desirable characteristics and skills on a scale of 0…

Beyond Zipf's Law: The Lavalette Rank Function and Its Properties.

PubMed

Fontanelli, Oscar; Miramontes, Pedro; Yang, Yaning; Cocho, Germinal; Li, Wentian

Although Zipf's law is widespread in natural and social data, one often encounters situations where one or both ends of the ranked data deviate from the power-law function. Previously we proposed the Beta rank function to improve the fitting of data which does not follow a perfect Zipf's law. Here we show that when the two parameters in the Beta rank function have the same value, the Lavalette rank function, the probability density function can be derived analytically. We also show both computationally and analytically that Lavalette distribution is approximately equal, though not identical, to the lognormal distribution. We illustrate the utility of Lavalette rank function in several datasets. We also address three analysis issues on the statistical testing of Lavalette fitting function, comparison between Zipf's law and lognormal distribution through Lavalette function, and comparison between lognormal distribution and Lavalette distribution.

Exact and Monte carlo resampling procedures for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests.

PubMed

Berry, K J; Mielke, P W

2000-12-01

Exact and Monte Carlo resampling FORTRAN programs are described for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum test and the Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance for ranks test. The program algorithms compensate for tied values and do not depend on asymptotic approximations for probability values, unlike most algorithms contained in PC-based statistical software packages.

Generalization of information-based concepts in forecast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tödter, J.; Ahrens, B.

2012-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification. Recent findings concerning the Ignorance Score are shortly reviewed, then the generalization to continuous forecasts is shown. For ensemble forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are the prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up the natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The applicability and usefulness of the conceptually appealing CRIGN is illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This is also directly applicable to the more traditional CRPS.

Evaluation of decadal hindcasts by application of a satellite simulator for SSM/I & SSMIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Glowienka-Hense, R.; Hense, A.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.

2017-12-01

A satellite simulator for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) is developed and applied to decadal hindcast simulations performed within the MiKlip project (http://fona-miklip.de, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). The aim is to evaluate the climatological and predictive skill of the hindcasts focusing on water cycle components. Classical evaluation approaches commonly focus on geophysical parameters such as temperature, precipitation or wind speed using observational datasets and reanalysis as reference. The employment of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter and thereby reduces uncertainties on the reference side. The simulators are developed utilizing the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP, http://cfmip.metoffice.com/COSP.html). On the reference side the SSM/I & SSMIS Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) provided by the CM SAF (DOI: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/FCDR_MWI/V003) is used which constitutes a quality controlled, recalibrated and intercalibrated record of brightness temperatures for the period from 1978 to 2015. Simulated brightness temperatures for selected channels which are sensitive to either water vapor content (22 GHz) or hydrometeor content (85 GHz, vertical minus horizontal polarization) as an indicator for precipitation are used. For lead year 1 analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals potential predictability for large parts of the tropical ocean areas for both water vapor and precipitation related channels. Furthermore, the Conditional Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) indicates predictive skill for large parts of the tropical/sub-tropical Pacific, parts of the tropical/sub-tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Indian Ocean. For lead years 2-3 ANOVA still indicates potential predictability for equatorial ocean areas. Moreover, CRPSS indicates predictive skill for parts of the tropical/subtropical ocean areas. These results suggest that the hindcasts show skill even beyond lead year 1 when comparing against climatology as a reference forecast.

Computer Modeling of the Instructionally Insensitive Nature of the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) Exam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Vinh Huy

Stakeholders of the educational system assume that standardized tests are transparently about the subject content being tested and therefore can be used as a metric to measure achievement in outcome-based educational reform. Both analysis of longitudinal data for the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) exam and agent based computer modeling of its underlying theoretical testing framework have yielded results that indicate the exam only rank orders students on a persistent but uncharacterized latent trait across domains tested as well as across years. Such persistent rank ordering of students is indicative of an instructionally insensitive exam. This is problematic in the current atmosphere of high stakes testing which holds teachers, administrators, and school systems accountable for student achievement.

Key team physical and technical performance indicators indicative of team quality in the soccer Chinese super league.

PubMed

Yang, Gai; Leicht, Anthony S; Lago, Carlos; Gómez, Miguel-Ángel

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify the key physical and technical performance variables related to team quality in the Chinese Super League (CSL). Teams' performance variables were collected from 240 matches and analysed via analysis of variance between end-of-season-ranked groups and multinomial logistic regression. Significant physical performance differences between groups were identified for sprinting (top-ranked group vs. upper-middle-ranked group) and total distance covered without possession (upper and upper-middle-ranked groups and lower-ranked group). For technical performance, teams in the top-ranked group exhibited a significantly greater amount of possession in opponent's half, number of entry passes in the final 1/3 of the field and the Penalty Area, and 50-50 challenges than lower-ranked teams. Finally, time of possession increased the probability of a win compared with a draw. The current study identified key performance indicators that differentiated end-season team quality within the CSL.

Weighing Clinical Evidence Using Patient Preferences: An Application of Probabilistic Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Broekhuizen, Henk; IJzerman, Maarten J; Hauber, A Brett; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M

2017-03-01

The need for patient engagement has been recognized by regulatory agencies, but there is no consensus about how to operationalize this. One approach is the formal elicitation and use of patient preferences for weighing clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to demonstrate how patient preferences can be used to weigh clinical outcomes when both preferences and clinical outcomes are uncertain by applying a probabilistic value-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. Probability distributions were used to model random variation and parameter uncertainty in preferences, and parameter uncertainty in clinical outcomes. The posterior value distributions and rank probabilities for each treatment were obtained using Monte-Carlo simulations. The probability of achieving the first rank is the probability that a treatment represents the highest value to patients. We illustrated our methodology for a simplified case on six HIV treatments. Preferences were modeled with normal distributions and clinical outcomes were modeled with beta distributions. The treatment value distributions showed the rank order of treatments according to patients and illustrate the remaining decision uncertainty. This study demonstrated how patient preference data can be used to weigh clinical evidence using MCDA. The model takes into account uncertainty in preferences and clinical outcomes. The model can support decision makers during the aggregation step of the MCDA process and provides a first step toward preference-based personalized medicine, yet requires further testing regarding its appropriate use in real-world settings.

Neural Signatures of Intransitive Preferences

PubMed Central

Kalenscher, Tobias; Tobler, Philippe N.; Huijbers, Willem; Daselaar, Sander M.; Pennartz, Cyriel M.A.

2010-01-01

It is often assumed that decisions are made by rank-ordering and thus comparing the available choice options based on their subjective values. Rank-ordering requires that the alternatives’ subjective values are mentally represented at least on an ordinal scale. Because one alternative cannot be at the same time better and worse than another alternative, choices should satisfy transitivity (if alternative A is preferred over B, and B is preferred over C, A should be preferred over C). Yet, individuals often demonstrate striking violations of transitivity (preferring C over A). We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to study the neural correlates of intransitive choices between gambles varying in magnitude and probability of financial gains. Behavioral intransitivities were common. They occurred because participants did not evaluate the gambles independently, but in comparison with the alternative gamble presented. Neural value signals in prefrontal and parietal cortex were not ordinal-scaled and transitive, but reflected fluctuations in the gambles’ local, pairing-dependent preference-ranks. Detailed behavioral analysis of gamble preferences showed that, depending on the difference in the offered gambles’ attributes, participants gave variable priority to magnitude or probability and thus shifted between preferring richer or safer gambles. The variable, context-dependent priority given to magnitude and probability was tracked by insula (magnitude) and posterior cingulate (probability). Their activation-balance may reflect the individual decision rules leading to intransitivities. Thus, the phenomenon of intransitivity is reflected in the organization of the neural systems involved in risky decision-making. PMID:20814565

Development, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of the resistance training skills battery.

PubMed

Lubans, David R; Smith, Jordan J; Harries, Simon K; Barnett, Lisa M; Faigenbaum, Avery D

2014-05-01

The aim of this study was to describe the development and assess test-retest reliability and construct validity of the Resistance Training Skills Battery (RTSB) for adolescents. The RTSB provides an assessment of resistance training skill competency and includes 6 exercises (i.e., body weight squat, push-up, lunge, suspended row, standing overhead press, and front support with chest touches). Scoring for each skill is based on the number of performance criteria successfully demonstrated. An overall resistance training skill quotient (RTSQ) is created by adding participants' scores for the 6 skills. Participants (44 boys and 19 girls, mean age = 14.5 ± 1.2 years) completed the RTSB on 2 occasions separated by 7 days. Participants also completed the following fitness tests, which were used to create a muscular fitness score (MFS): handgrip strength, timed push-up, and standing long jump tests. Intraclass correlation (ICC), paired samples t-tests, and typical error were used to assess test-retest reliability. To assess construct validity, gender and RTSQ were entered into a regression model predicting MFS. The rank order repeatability of the RTSQ was high (ICC = 0.88). The model explained 39% of the variance in MFS (p ≤ 0.001) and RTSQ (r = 0.40, p ≤ 0.001) was a significant predictor. This study has demonstrated the construct validity and test-retest reliability of the RTSB in a sample of adolescents. The RTSB can reliably rank participants in regards to their resistance training competency and has the necessary sensitivity to detect small changes in resistance training skill proficiency.

Important Skills for Internship and the Fourth-Year Medical School Courses to Acquire Them: A National Survey of Internal Medicine Residents.

PubMed

Pereira, Anne G; Harrell, Heather E; Weissman, Arlene; Smith, Cynthia D; Dupras, Denise; Kane, Gregory C

2016-06-01

To obtain feedback from internal medicine residents, a key stakeholder group, regarding both the skills needed for internship and the fourth-year medical school courses that prepared them for residency. This feedback could inform fourth-year curriculum redesign efforts. All internal medicine residents taking the 2013-2014 Internal Medicine In-Training Examination were asked to rank the importance of learning 10 predefined skills prior to internship and to use a dropdown menu of 11 common fourth-year courses to rank the 3 most helpful in preparing for internship. The predefined skills were chosen based on a review of the literature, a national subinternship curriculum, and expert consensus. Chi-square statistics were used to test for differences in responses between training levels. Of the 24,820 internal medicine residents who completed the exam, 20,484 (83%) completed the survey, had complete identification numbers, and consented to have their responses used for research. The three skills most frequently rated as very important were identifying when to seek additional help and expertise, prioritizing clinical tasks and managing time efficiently, and communicating with other providers around care transitions. The subinternship/acting internship was most often selected as being the most helpful course in preparing for internship. These findings indicate which skills and fourth-year medical school courses internal medicine residents found most helpful in preparing for internship and confirm the findings of prior studies highlighting the perceived value of subinternships. Internal medicine residents and medical educators agree on the skills students should learn prior to internship.

Creation and Validation of a Simulator for Neonatal Brain Ultrasonography: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Tsai, Andy; Barnewolt, Carol E; Prahbu, Sanjay P; Yonekura, Reimi; Hosmer, Andrew; Schulz, Noah E; Weinstock, Peter H

2017-01-01

Historically, skills training in performing brain ultrasonography has been limited to hours of scanning infants for lack of adequate synthetic models or alternatives. The aim of this study was to create a simulator and determine its utility as an educational tool in teaching the skills that can be used in performing brain ultrasonography on infants. A brain ultrasonography simulator was created using a combination of multi-modality imaging, three-dimensional printing, material and acoustic engineering, and sculpting and molding. Radiology residents participated prior to their pediatric rotation. The study included (1) an initial questionnaire and resident creation of three coronal images using the simulator; (2) brain ultrasonography lecture; (3) hands-on simulator practice; and (4) a follow-up questionnaire and re-creation of the same three coronal images on the simulator. A blinded radiologist scored the quality of the pre- and post-training images using metrics including symmetry of the images and inclusion of predetermined landmarks. Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare pre- and post-training questionnaire rankings and image quality scores. Ten residents participated in the study. Analysis of pre- and post-training rankings showed improvements in technical knowledge and confidence, and reduction in anxiety in performing brain ultrasonography. Objective measures of image quality likewise improved. Mean reported value score for simulator training was high across participants who reported perceived improvements in scanning skills and enjoyment from simulator use, with interest in additional practice on the simulator and recommendations for its use. This pilot study supports the use of a simulator in teaching radiology residents the skills that can be used to perform brain ultrasonography. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On Graph Isomorphism and the PageRank Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

specifies the probability of visiting each node from any other node. The perturbed matrix satisfies the Perron - Frobenius theorem’s conditions. Therefore... Frobenius and Perron theorems establishes the matrix must yield the dominant eigenvalue, one. Normalizing the unique and associated dominant eigenvector...is constructed such that none of its entries equal zero. An arbitrary PageRank matrix, S, is irreducible and satisfies the Perron - Frobenius

Extended Range Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Current status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Borah, N.; Joseph, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.; S, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Mandal, R.; Dey, A.

2014-12-01

The main focus of this study is to develop forecast consensus in the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon Intraseasonal oscillations using a suit of different variants of Climate Forecast system (CFS) model. In this CFS based Grand MME prediction system (CGMME), the ensemble members are generated by perturbing the initial condition and using different configurations of CFSv2. This is to address the role of different physical mechanisms known to have control on the error growth in the ERP in the 15-20 day time scale. The final formulation of CGMME is based on 21 ensembles of the standalone Global Forecast System (GFS) forced with bias corrected forecasted SST from CFS, 11 low resolution CFST126 and 11 high resolution CFST382. Thus, we develop the multi-model consensus forecast for the ERP of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a suite of different variants of CFS model. This coordinated international effort lead towards the development of specific tailor made regional forecast products over Indian region. Skill of deterministic and probabilistic categorical rainfall forecast as well the verification of large-scale low frequency monsoon intraseasonal oscillations has been carried out using hindcast from 2001-2012 during the monsoon season in which all models are initialized at every five days starting from 16May to 28 September. The skill of deterministic forecast from CGMME is better than the best participating single model ensemble configuration (SME). The CGMME approach is believed to quantify the uncertainty in both initial conditions and model formulation. Main improvement is attained in probabilistic forecast which is because of an increase in the ensemble spread, thereby reducing the error due to over-confident ensembles in a single model configuration. For probabilistic forecast, three tercile ranges are determined by ranking method based on the percentage of ensemble members from all the participating models falls in those three categories. CGMME further added value to both deterministic and probability forecast compared to raw SME's and this better skill is probably flows from large spread and improved spread-error relationship. CGMME system is currently capable of generating ER prediction in real time and successfully delivering its experimental operational ER forecast of ISM for the last few years.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

Engineering graduates' skill sets in the MENA region: a gap analysis of industry expectations and satisfaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramadi, Eric; Ramadi, Serge; Nasr, Karim

2016-01-01

This study explored gaps between industry expectations and perceptions of engineering graduates' skill sets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study measured the importance that managers of engineers placed on 36 skills relevant to engineers. Also measured was managers' satisfaction with engineering graduates' skill sets. Importance and satisfaction were used to calculate skill gaps for each skill. A principal components analysis was then performed, consolidating the 36 skills into 8 categories. The means of importance, satisfaction, and skill gaps were ranked to determine the areas in which graduates needed improvement. Results showed significant gaps between managers' expectations of and satisfaction with all 36 skills. The areas in which managers felt that graduates needed most improvement were communication, time management, and continuous learning. Managers reported that recent engineering graduates exhibited low overall preparedness for employment. These findings may help to inform curricular reform in engineering education.

Can we well assess the relative efficacy and tolerability of a new drug versus others at the time of marketing authorization using mixed treatment comparisons? A detailed illustration with escitalopram

PubMed Central

Llorca, Pierre-Michel; Lançon, Christophe; Brignone, Mélanie; Painchault, Caroline; Rive, Benoit; Toumi, Mondher; François, Clément

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the variation of relative efficacy and tolerability of an antidepressant versus others based on both pre-marketing (registration studies) and post-marketing studies versus pre-marketing studies only in patients with major depressive disorder. Methods The relative efficacy and tolerability of antidepressants was assessed by mixed treatment comparisons (MTCs) using data acquired over two time periods: before registration of the reference drug escitalopram (1989–2002) and up to 5 years later (1989–2007). Ranking probability outputs were presented for efficacy, using change from baseline to 8 weeks on Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale total score, and tolerability, using withdrawals due to adverse events. Results The relative efficacy and tolerability of some selected antidepressants, including escitalopram, varied considerably over the two time periods. The improved relative efficacy and tolerability of escitalopram over time, compared with citalopram, was demonstrated by greater separation of ranking probability curves for efficacy and tolerability. In 2002, escitalopram ranked low with 13.9% and 5.1% probability of being in the top four antidepressants’ relative efficacy and tolerability, respectively. In 2007, ranking probabilities for relative efficacy and tolerability of escitalopram increased to 52.5% and 82.1%, respectively. Conclusions Time of marketing authorization may not be the most appropriate time to evaluate the relative efficacy and tolerability of a new antidepressant based on MTC approach due to the asymmetry of information between new and older compounds. However, the first evaluation of relative effect of a new drug for health technology assessment recommendations is commonly done at this time. Re-evaluation of a drug several years after its launch is likely to provide a more accurate indication of its relative efficacy and tolerability. PMID:27123184

Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quinn, Robert J.

1997-01-01

Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

Methods for evaluating and ranking transportation energy conservation programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santone, L. C.

1981-04-01

The energy conservation programs are assessed in terms of petroleum savings, incremental costs to consumers probability of technical and market success, and external impacts due to environmental, economic, and social factors. Three ranking functions and a policy matrix are used to evaluate the programs. The net present value measure which computes the present worth of petroleum savings less the present worth of costs is modified by dividing by the present value of DOE funding to obtain a net present value per program dollar. The comprehensive ranking function takes external impacts into account. Procedures are described for making computations of the ranking functions and the attributes that require computation. Computations are made for the electric vehicle, Stirling engine, gas turbine, and MPG mileage guide program.

Simulation Testing for Selection of Critical Care Medicine Trainees. A Pilot Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Cocciante, Adriano G; Nguyen, Martin N; Marane, Candida F; Panayiotou, Anita E; Karahalios, Amalia; Beer, Janet A; Johal, Navroop; Morris, John; Turner, Stacy; Hessian, Elizabeth C

2016-04-01

Selection of physicians into anesthesiology, intensive care, and emergency medicine training has traditionally relied on evaluation of curriculum vitae, letters of recommendation, and interviews, despite these methods being poor predictors of subsequent workplace performance. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility and face validity of incorporating assessment of nontechnical skills in simulation and personality traits into an existing junior doctor selection framework. Candidates short-listed for a critical care residency position were invited to participate in the study. On the interview day, consenting candidates participated in a simulation scenario and debriefing and completed a personality test (16 Personality Factor Questionnaire) and a survey. Timing of participants' progression through the stations and faculty staff numbers were evaluated. Nontechnical skills were evaluated and candidates ranked using the Ottawa Crisis Resource Management Global Rating Scale (Ottawa GRS). Nontechnical skills ranking and traditional selection method ranking were compared using the concordance correlation coefficient. Interrater reliability was assessed using the concordance correlation coefficient. Thirteen of 20 eligible participants consented to study inclusion. All participants completed the necessary stations without significant time delays. Eighteen staff members were required to conduct interviews, simulation, debriefing, and personality testing. Participants rated the simulation station to be acceptable, fair, and relevant and as providing an opportunity to demonstrate abilities. Personality testing was rated less fair, less relevant, and less acceptable, and as giving less opportunity to demonstrate abilities. Participants reported that simulation was equally as stressful as the interview, whereas personality testing was rated less stressful. Assessors rated both personality testing and simulation as acceptable and able to provide additional information about candidates. The Ottawa GRS showed moderate interrater concordance. There was moderate concordance between rankings based on traditional selection methods and Ottawa GRS rankings (ρ = 0.52; 95% confidence interval, -0.02 to 0.82; P = 0.06). A multistation selection process involving interviews, simulation, and personality testing is feasible and has face validity. A potential barrier to adoption is the high number of faculty required to conduct the process.

Application of a GCM Ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Crop Yield Prediction in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogutu, G.; Franssen, W.; Supit, I.; Hutjes, R. W. A.

2016-12-01

We evaluated the potential use of ECMWF System-4 seasonal climate forecasts (S4) for impacts analysis over East Africa. Using the 15 member, 7 months ensemble forecasts initiated every month for 1981-2010, we tested precipitation (tp), air temperature (tas) and surface shortwave radiation (rsds) forecast skill against the WATCH forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) re-analysis and other data. We used these forecasts as input in the WOFOST crop model to predict maize yields. Forecast skill is assessed using anomaly correlation (ACC), Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and the Relative Operating Curve Skill Score (ROCSS) for MAM, JJA and OND growing seasons. Predicted maize yields (S4-yields) are verified against historical observed FAO and nationally reported (NAT) yield statistics, and yields from the same crop model forced by WFDEI (WFDEI-yields). Predictability of the climate forecasts vary with season, location and lead-time. The OND tp forecasts show skill over a larger area up to three months lead-time compared to MAM and JJA. Upper- and lower-tercile tp forecasts are 20-80% better than climatology. Good tas forecast skill is apparent with three months lead-time. The rsds is less skillful than tp and tas in all seasons when verified against WFDEI but higher against others. S4-forecasts captures ENSO related anomalous years with region dependent skill. Anomalous ENSO influence is also seen in simulated yields. Focussing on the main sowing dates in the northern (July), equatorial (March-April) and southern (December) regions, WFDEI-yields are lower than FAO and NAT but anomalies are comparable. Yield anomalies are predictable 3-months before sowing in most of the regions. Differences in interannual variability in the range of ±40% may be related to sensitivity of WOFOST to drought stress while the ACCs are largely positive ranging from 0.3 to 0.6. Above and below-normal yields are predictable with 2-months lead time. We evidenced a potential use of seasonal climate forecasts with a crop simulation model to predict anomalous maize yields over East Africa. The findings open a window to better use of climate forecasts in food security early warning systems, and pre-season policy and farm management decisions.

Time-Aware Service Ranking Prediction in the Internet of Things Environment

PubMed Central

Huang, Yuze; Huang, Jiwei; Cheng, Bo; He, Shuqing; Chen, Junliang

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of the Internet of things (IoT), building IoT systems with high quality of service (QoS) has become an urgent requirement in both academia and industry. During the procedures of building IoT systems, QoS-aware service selection is an important concern, which requires the ranking of a set of functionally similar services according to their QoS values. In reality, however, it is quite expensive and even impractical to evaluate all geographically-dispersed IoT services at a single client to obtain such a ranking. Nevertheless, distributed measurement and ranking aggregation have to deal with the high dynamics of QoS values and the inconsistency of partial rankings. To address these challenges, we propose a time-aware service ranking prediction approach named TSRPred for obtaining the global ranking from the collection of partial rankings. Specifically, a pairwise comparison model is constructed to describe the relationships between different services, where the partial rankings are obtained by time series forecasting on QoS values. The comparisons of IoT services are formulated by random walks, and thus, the global ranking can be obtained by sorting the steady-state probabilities of the underlying Markov chain. Finally, the efficacy of TSRPred is validated by simulation experiments based on large-scale real-world datasets. PMID:28448451

Time-Aware Service Ranking Prediction in the Internet of Things Environment.

PubMed

Huang, Yuze; Huang, Jiwei; Cheng, Bo; He, Shuqing; Chen, Junliang

2017-04-27

With the rapid development of the Internet of things (IoT), building IoT systems with high quality of service (QoS) has become an urgent requirement in both academia and industry. During the procedures of building IoT systems, QoS-aware service selection is an important concern, which requires the ranking of a set of functionally similar services according to their QoS values. In reality, however, it is quite expensive and even impractical to evaluate all geographically-dispersed IoT services at a single client to obtain such a ranking. Nevertheless, distributed measurement and ranking aggregation have to deal with the high dynamics of QoS values and the inconsistency of partial rankings. To address these challenges, we propose a time-aware service ranking prediction approach named TSRPred for obtaining the global ranking from the collection of partial rankings. Specifically, a pairwise comparison model is constructed to describe the relationships between different services, where the partial rankings are obtained by time series forecasting on QoS values. The comparisons of IoT services are formulated by random walks, and thus, the global ranking can be obtained by sorting the steady-state probabilities of the underlying Markov chain. Finally, the efficacy of TSRPred is validated by simulation experiments based on large-scale real-world datasets.

A study on the effect of varying sequence of lab performance skills on lab performance of high school physics students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bournia-Petrou, Ethel A.

The main goal of this investigation was to study how student rank in class, student gender and skill sequence affect high school students' performance on the lab skills involved in a laboratory-based inquiry task in physics. The focus of the investigation was the effect of skill sequence as determined by the particular task. The skills considered were: Hypothesis, Procedure, Planning, Data, Graph, Calculations and Conclusion. Three physics lab tasks based on the simple pendulum concept were administered to 282 Regents physics high school students. The reliability of the designed tasks was high. Student performance was evaluated on individual student written responses and a scoring rubric. The tasks had high discrimination power and were of moderate difficulty (65%). It was found that, student performance was weak on Conclusion (42%), Hypothesis (48%), and Procedure (51%), where the numbers in parentheses represent the mean as a percentage of the maximum possible score. Student performance was strong on Calculations (91%), Data (82%), Graph (74%) and Plan (68%). Out of all seven skills, Procedure had the strongest correlation (.73) with the overall task performance. Correlation analysis revealed some strong relationships among the seven skills which were grouped in two distinct clusters: Hypothesis, Procedure and Plan belong to one, and Data, Graph, Calculations, and Conclusion belong to the other. This distinction may indicate different mental processes at play within each skill cluster. The effect of student rank was not statistically significant according to the MANOVA results due to the large variation of rank levels among the participating schools. The effect of gender was significant on the entire test because of performance differences on Calculations and Graph, where male students performed better than female students. Skill sequence had a significant effect on the skills of Procedure, Plan, Data and Conclusion. Students are rather weak in proposing a sensible, detailed procedure for the inquiry task which involves the "novel" concept. However they perform better on Procedure and Plan, if the "novel" task is not preceded by another, which explicitly offers step-by-step procedure instructions. It was concluded that the format of detailed, structured instructions often adopted by many commercial and school-developed lab books and conventional lab practices, fails to prepare students to propose a successful, detailed procedure when faced with a slightly "novel", lab-based inquiry task. Student performance on Data collection was higher in the tasks that involved the more familiar experimental arrangement than in the tasks using the slightly "novel" equipment. Student performance on Conclusion was better in tasks where they had to collect the Data themselves than in tasks, where all relevant Data information was given to them.

Quantum teleportation via quantum channels with non-maximal Schmidt rank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solís-Prosser, M. A.; Jiménez, O.; Neves, L.; Delgado, A.

2013-03-01

We study the problem of teleporting unknown pure states of a single qudit via a pure quantum channel with non-maximal Schmidt rank. We relate this process to the discrimination of linearly dependent symmetric states with the help of the maximum-confidence discrimination strategy. We show that with a certain probability, it is possible to teleport with a fidelity larger than the fidelity optimal deterministic teleportation.

Optimization of the two-sample rank Neyman-Pearson detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akimov, P. S.; Barashkov, V. M.

1984-10-01

The development of optimal algorithms concerned with rank considerations in the case of finite sample sizes involves considerable mathematical difficulties. The present investigation provides results related to the design and the analysis of an optimal rank detector based on a utilization of the Neyman-Pearson criteria. The detection of a signal in the presence of background noise is considered, taking into account n observations (readings) x1, x2, ... xn in the experimental communications channel. The computation of the value of the rank of an observation is calculated on the basis of relations between x and the variable y, representing interference. Attention is given to conditions in the absence of a signal, the probability of the detection of an arriving signal, details regarding the utilization of the Neyman-Pearson criteria, the scheme of an optimal rank, multichannel, incoherent detector, and an analysis of the detector.

The assessment of surgical skills as a complement to the training method. Revision.

PubMed

Sánchez-Fernández, J; Bachiller-Burgos, J; Serrano-Pascual, Á; Cózar-Olmo, J M; Díaz-Güemes Martín-Portugués, I; Pérez-Duarte, F J; Hernández-Hurtado, L; Álvarez-Ossorio, J L; Sánchez-Margallo, F M

2016-01-01

The acquisition and improvement of surgical skills constitute a fundamental element in the training of any practitioner. At present, however, the assessment of these skills is a scarcely developed area of research. The aim of this study was to analyse the peculiarities of the various assessment systems and establish the minimum criteria that a skills and knowledge assessment system should meet as a method for assessing surgical skills in urological surgery. Scientific literature review aimed at the various currently available assessment systems for skills and competencies (technical and nontechnical), with a special focus on the systematic reviews and prospective studies. After conducting the review, we found that the various assessment systems for surgical competence have, in our opinion, a number of shortcomings. There is a certain degree of subjectivity in the assessment of surgeons by the evaluators. The assessment of nontechnical competencies is not formally recorded. There is no description of a follow-up assessment or any basic parameters associated with healthcare quality. There is no registration of associated competencies associated with the various surgical techniques. There is also no ranking of these competencies and the specific peculiarities for their application. We believe that the development of a new assessment system for surgical competencies (technical and nontechnical) aimed at assessing urologists in the various surgical techniques is necessary. To this end, our team has worked on developing the Evaluation System for Surgical Competencies on Laparoscopy, which is based on the definition, ranking and assessment of competencies demonstrated by surgeons. Copyright © 2015 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

PubMed

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

PubMed Central

Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

2013-01-01

Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

PubMed

Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

2013-01-01

Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

Reliability of Pressure Ulcer Rates: How Precisely Can We Differentiate Among Hospital Units, and Does the Standard Signal‐Noise Reliability Measure Reflect This Precision?

PubMed Central

Cramer, Emily

2016-01-01

Abstract Hospital performance reports often include rankings of unit pressure ulcer rates. Differentiating among units on the basis of quality requires reliable measurement. Our objectives were to describe and apply methods for assessing reliability of hospital‐acquired pressure ulcer rates and evaluate a standard signal‐noise reliability measure as an indicator of precision of differentiation among units. Quarterly pressure ulcer data from 8,199 critical care, step‐down, medical, surgical, and medical‐surgical nursing units from 1,299 US hospitals were analyzed. Using beta‐binomial models, we estimated between‐unit variability (signal) and within‐unit variability (noise) in annual unit pressure ulcer rates. Signal‐noise reliability was computed as the ratio of between‐unit variability to the total of between‐ and within‐unit variability. To assess precision of differentiation among units based on ranked pressure ulcer rates, we simulated data to estimate the probabilities of a unit's observed pressure ulcer rate rank in a given sample falling within five and ten percentiles of its true rank, and the probabilities of units with ulcer rates in the highest quartile and highest decile being identified as such. We assessed the signal‐noise measure as an indicator of differentiation precision by computing its correlations with these probabilities. Pressure ulcer rates based on a single year of quarterly or weekly prevalence surveys were too susceptible to noise to allow for precise differentiation among units, and signal‐noise reliability was a poor indicator of precision of differentiation. To ensure precise differentiation on the basis of true differences, alternative methods of assessing reliability should be applied to measures purported to differentiate among providers or units based on quality. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27223598

New paradoxes of risky decision making.

PubMed

Birnbaum, Michael H

2008-04-01

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions. The new findings are consistent with and, in several cases, were predicted in advance by simple "configural weight" models in which probability-consequence branches are weighted by a function that depends on branch probability and ranks of consequences on discrete branches. Although they have some similarities to later models called "rank-dependent utility," configural weight models do not satisfy coalescing, the assumption that branches leading to the same consequence can be combined by adding their probabilities. Nor do they satisfy cancellation, the "independence" assumption that branches common to both alternatives can be removed. The transfer of attention exchange model, with parameters estimated from previous data, correctly predicts results with all 11 new paradoxes. Apparently, people do not frame choices as prospects but, instead, as trees with branches.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F.; Ramos, M. H.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Alfieri, L.; Bogner, K.; Mueller, A.; Salamon, P.

2015-03-01

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are 'toughest to beat' and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

Large Scale Data Analysis and Knowledge Extraction in Communication Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

this purpose, we developed a novel method the " Correlation Density Ran!C’ which finds probability density distribution of related frequent event on all...which is called " Correlation Density Rank", is developed to derive the community tree from the network. As in the real world, where a network is...Community Structure in Dynamic Social Networks using the Correlation Density Rank," 2014 ASE BigData/SocialCom/Cybersecurity Conference, Stanford

Influence of crown class, diameter, and sprout rank on red maple (Acer rubrum L.) development during forest succession in Connecticut

Treesearch

Jeffery S. Ward; George R. Stephens

1993-01-01

Crown class, stem diameter, and sprout rank of 2067 red maples on medium quality sites were measured at 10-yr intervals between 1927-1987. Nominal stand age was 25 yrs in 1927. There was a progressive increase in the probability of an individual red maple ascending into the upper canopy and persisting in the upper canopy from suppressed through dominant crown classes...

Estimating the probability for major gene Alzheimer disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrer, L.A.; Cupples, L.A.

1994-02-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a neuropsychiatric illness caused by multiple etiologies. Prediction of whether AD is genetically based in a given family is problematic because of censoring bias among unaffected relatives as a consequence of the late onset of the disorder, diagnostic uncertainties, heterogeneity, and limited information in a single family. The authors have developed a method based on Bayesian probability to compute values for a continuous variable that ranks AD families as having a major gene form of AD (MGAD). In addition, they have compared the Bayesian method with a maximum-likelihood approach. These methods incorporate sex- and age-adjusted riskmore » estimates and allow for phenocopies and familial clustering of age on onset. Agreement is high between the two approaches for ranking families as MGAD (Spearman rank [r] = .92). When either method is used, the numerical outcomes are sensitive to assumptions of the gene frequency and cumulative incidence of the disease in the population. Consequently, risk estimates should be used cautiously for counseling purposes; however, there are numerous valid applications of these procedures in genetic and epidemiological studies. 41 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Methods of Combinatorial Optimization to Reveal Factors Affecting Gene Length

PubMed Central

Bolshoy, Alexander; Tatarinova, Tatiana

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a novel method for genome ranking according to gene lengths. The main outcomes described in this paper are the following: the formulation of the genome ranking problem, presentation of relevant approaches to solve it, and the demonstration of preliminary results from prokaryotic genomes ordering. Using a subset of prokaryotic genomes, we attempted to uncover factors affecting gene length. We have demonstrated that hyperthermophilic species have shorter genes as compared with mesophilic organisms, which probably means that environmental factors affect gene length. Moreover, these preliminary results show that environmental factors group together in ranking evolutionary distant species. PMID:23300345

Using Medical Dictionaries to Teach the Critical Evaluation of Information Sources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duff, Alistair S.

1995-01-01

A course-integrated bibliographic instruction session was designed to develop skills in evaluating biomedical information sources. Students in small groups evaluated and ranked medical and nursing dictionaries and defended ratings to the class. (SK)

TENSOR DECOMPOSITIONS AND SPARSE LOG-LINEAR MODELS

PubMed Central

Johndrow, James E.; Bhattacharya, Anirban; Dunson, David B.

2017-01-01

Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. We derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions. PMID:29332971

Rating competitors before tournament starts: How it's affecting team progression in a soccer tournament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Sulaiman, Tajularipin; Khalid, Ruzelan; Hamid, Mohamad Shukri Abdul; Mansor, Rosnalini

2014-12-01

In professional sporting events, rating competitors before tournament start is a well-known approach to distinguish the favorite team and the weaker teams. Various methodologies are used to rate competitors. In this paper, we explore four ways to rate competitors; least squares rating, maximum likelihood strength ratio, standing points in large round robin simulation and previous league rank position. The tournament metric we used to evaluate different types of rating approach is tournament outcome characteristics measure. The tournament outcome characteristics measure is defined by the probability that a particular team in the top 100q pre-tournament rank percentile progress beyond round R, for all q and R. Based on simulation result, we found that different rating approach produces different effect to the team. Our simulation result shows that from eight teams participate in knockout standard seeding, Perak has highest probability to win for tournament that use the least squares rating approach, PKNS has highest probability to win using the maximum likelihood strength ratio and the large round robin simulation approach, while Perak has the highest probability to win a tournament using previous league season approach.

Multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with inexact probability distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamadameen, Abdulqader Othman; Zainuddin, Zaitul Marlizawati

This study deals with multiobjective fuzzy stochastic linear programming problems with uncertainty probability distribution which are defined as fuzzy assertions by ambiguous experts. The problem formulation has been presented and the two solutions strategies are; the fuzzy transformation via ranking function and the stochastic transformation when α{sup –}. cut technique and linguistic hedges are used in the uncertainty probability distribution. The development of Sen’s method is employed to find a compromise solution, supported by illustrative numerical example.

Extra-tropical Cyclones and Windstorms in Seasonal Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Thornton, Hazel; Roberts, Julia; Hermanson, Leon

2015-04-01

Severe damages and large insured losses over Europe related to natural phenomena are mostly caused by extra-tropical cyclones and their related windstorm fields. Thus, an adequate representation of these events in seasonal prediction systems and reliable forecasts up to a season in advance would be of high value for society and economy. In this study, state-of-the-art seasonal forecast prediction systems are analysed (ECMWF, UK Met Office) regarding the general climatological representation and the seasonal prediction of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms during the core winter season (DJF) with a lead time of up to four months. Two different algorithms are used to identify cyclones and windstorm events in these datasets. Firstly, we apply a cyclone identification and tracking algorithm based on the Laplacian of MSLP and secondly, we use an objective wind field tracking algorithm to identify and track continuous areas of extreme high wind speeds (cf. Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can be related to extra-tropical winter cyclones. Thus, for the first time, we can analyse the forecast of severe wind events near to the surface caused by extra-tropical cyclones. First results suggest a successful validation of the spatial climatological distributions of wind storm and cyclone occurrence in the seasonal forecast systems in comparison with reanalysis data (ECMWF-ERA40 & ERAInterim) in general. However, large biases are found for some areas. The skill of the seasonal forecast systems in simulating the year-to-year variability of the frequency of severe windstorm events and cyclones is investigated using the ranked probability skill score. Positive skill is found over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere as well as for the most intense extra-tropical cyclones and its related wind fields.

Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of the year and for lead times up to 6 months. The forecasted discharges are compared with observed monthly streamflow records using the ensemble verification measures Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world.

Rank of coal beds of the Narragansett basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, P.C.; Chase, H.B.

1981-01-01

Coal of the Narragansett basin generally has been considered to be anthracite and/or meta-anthracite. However, no single reliable method has been used to distinguish these two ranks in this basin. Three methods - chemical, X-ray, and petrographic - have been used with some degree of success on coal of the Narragansett basin, but too often the results are in conflict. Chemical methods have been limited by inadequate sampling on a coal-bed-by-coal-bed basis and by a lack of analyses made according to (American Society for Testing and Materials, 1974) standard specifications. In addition, when corrections are made by using the Parr formulas, as required by the ASTM (1974) procedures, the generally high to very high ash content of coal from the Narragansett basin causes the fixed-carbon content to appear higher than it actually is. X-ray methods using the degree of graphitization as a measure of rank are not reliable because some of the graphite is related to shearing and brecciation associated with folding and faulting. Petrographic methods using reflectance on vitrinite give results that are generally consistent with results from chemical determinations. However, it is not clear whether the mean maximum reflectance or mean bireflectance is a better indicator of similar rank of such high-rank coals that have been structurally deformed. Coal from the Cranston Mine, RI, is probably meta-anthracite and coal from the Portsmouth Mine is probably anthracite. These ranks are based on chemical,X-ray, and petrographic data and are supported by associated metamorphic mineral assemblages that indicate that the Cranston Mine is in a higher metamorphic zone than the zone containing the Porthmouth Mine. Interpretation of the rank of Mansfield, MA, coal on the basis of extant chemical data is difficult because it is an impure coal with an ash content of 33 to 50%. Reflectance data indicate that the Mansfield, Foxborough, and Plainville coals in the northern part of the Narragansett basin are meta-anthracite but this is in disagreement with the rank suggested by the low degree of metamorphism of the associated rocks. ?? 1981.

Learning basic laparoscopic skills: a randomized controlled study comparing box trainer, virtual reality simulator, and mental training.

PubMed

Mulla, Mubashir; Sharma, Davendra; Moghul, Masood; Kailani, Obeda; Dockery, Judith; Ayis, Salma; Grange, Philippe

2012-01-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to compare different methods of learning basic laparoscopic skills using box trainer (BT), virtual reality simulator (VRS) and mental training (MT); and (2) to determine the most effective method of learning laparoscopic skills. Randomized controlled trial. King's College, London. 41 medical students were included in the study. After randomization, they were divided into 5 groups. Group 1 was the control group without training; group 2 was box trained; group 3 was also box trained with an additional practice session; group 4 was VRS trained; and group 5 was solely mentally trained. The task was to cut out a circle marked on a stretchable material. All groups were assessed after 1 week on both BT and VRS. Four main parameters were assessed, namely time, precision, accuracy, and performance. Time: On BT assessment, the box-trained group with additional practice group 3 was the fastest, and the mental-trained group 5 was the slowest. On VRS assessment, the time difference between group 3 and the control group 1 was statistically significant. Precision: On BT assessment, the box-trained groups 2 and 3 scored high, and mental trained were low on precision. On VRS assessment, the VRS-trained group ranked at the top, and the MT group was at the bottom on precision. Accuracy: On BT assessment, the box-trained group 3 was best and the mental-trained group was last. On VRS assessment, the VRS-trained group 4 scored high closely followed by box-trained groups 2 and 3. Performance: On BT assessment, the box-trained group 3 ranked above all the other groups, and the mental-trained group ranked last. On VRS assessment, the VRS group 4 scored best, followed closely by box-trained groups 2 and 3. The skills learned on box training were reproducible on both VRS and BT. However, not all the skills learned on VRS were transferable to BT. Furthermore, VRS was found to be a reliable and the most convenient method of assessment. MT alone cannot replace conventional training. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secondary school science teaching, 1970--1992: Objectives as stated in periodical literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemby, Brian Franklin

Purpose of the study. The major purpose of this study was to identify and classify objectives for teaching science in secondary schools in the United States during the period 1970--1992. These objectives were identified by objective statements in articles from selected professional periodicals. Procedure. The 1970--1992 period was divided into two subperiods on the basis of major historical events. Selected professional periodicals were searched for statements of objectives of secondary school science teaching. These statements were catalogued into Knowledge, Process, Attitude and Interest, or Cultural Awareness categories. The resulting data were classified within and across the two subperiods according to frequency of occurrence, category, authorship, and year. Findings. The major findings of this investigation included the following: (1) Authors in Higher Education produced the most articles, both research-oriented and nonresearch-oriented, and the most statements in each subperiod. Miscellaneous authors produced the least articles and statements. (2) Statements in the Process category were most frequent in the two subperiods. (3) The "most important" objectives for secondary school science teaching were Philosophical, sociological, and political aspects (from the Cultural Awareness category), Processes, skills, and techniques (from the Process category), and Major facts, principles, or fundamentals (from the Knowledge category). (4) Attitude and Interest objectives were consistently ranked as least important throughout the study. (5) The ranking of "most important" objectives in research-oriented articles generally agreed with the ranking in articles as a whole. Conclusions. Based on the findings of this investigation, the following conclusions were made: (1) The objectives for teaching secondary school science were influenced by historical events, especially the Vietnam War, the Cold War, the AIDS pandemic, and the publication of A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform. (2) Authors in Higher Education wrote more articles about the objectives for the teaching of secondary school science than those in the other categories. This was probably a reflection of the "publish or perish" environment in many colleges and universities. (3) The most important objectives for secondary school science teaching were Philosophical, sociological, and political aspects, Processes, skills, and techniques, and Major facts, principles, or fundamentals. The preponderance of these objectives is most likely a result of cultural and social unrest during this period. (4) The number of research-oriented articles, as a percentage of all articles, doubled from the first subperiod to the second subperiod. There appears to be a trend during the second subperiod toward more data-based articles.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help MOSWOC forecasters view verification results in near real-time; plans to objectively assess flare forecasts under the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project; and summarise ISES efforts to achieve consensus on verification.

From time-based to competency-based standards: core transitional competencies in plastic surgery.

PubMed

Lutz, Kristina; Yazdani, Arjang; Ross, Douglas

2015-01-01

Competency-based medical education is becoming increasingly prevalent and is likely to be mandated by the Royal College in the near future. The objective of this study was to define the core technical competencies that should be possessed by plastic surgery residents as they transition into their senior (presently postgraduate year 3) years of training. A list of potential core competencies was generated using a modified Delphi method that included the investigators and 6 experienced, academic plastic surgeons from across Canada and the United States. Generated items were divided into 7 domains: basic surgical skills, anesthesia, hand surgery, cutaneous surgery, esthetic surgery, breast surgery, and craniofacial surgery. Members of the Delphi group were asked to rank particular skills on a 4-point scale with anchored descriptors. Item reduction resulted in a survey consisting of 48 skills grouped into the aforementioned domains. This self-administered survey was distributed to all Canadian program directors (n = 11) via e-mail for validation and further item reduction. The response rate was 100% (11/11). Using the average rankings of program directors, 26 "core" skills were identified. There was agreement of core skills across all domains except for breast surgery and esthetic surgery. Of them, 7 skills were determined to be above the level of a trainee at this stage; a further 15 skills were agreed to be important, but not core, competencies. Overall, 26 competencies have been identified as "core" for plastic surgery residents to possess as they begin their senior, on-service years. The nature of these skills makes them suitable for teaching in a formal, simulated environment, which would ensure that all plastic surgery trainees are competent in these tasks as they transition to their senior years of residency. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

New Aspects of Probabilistic Forecast Verification Using Information Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tödter, Julian; Ahrens, Bodo

2013-04-01

This work deals with information-theoretical methods in probabilistic forecast verification, particularly concerning ensemble forecasts. Recent findings concerning the "Ignorance Score" are shortly reviewed, then a consistent generalization to continuous forecasts is motivated. For ensemble-generated forecasts, the presented measures can be calculated exactly. The Brier Score (BS) and its generalizations to the multi-categorical Ranked Probability Score (RPS) and to the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are prominent verification measures for probabilistic forecasts. Particularly, their decompositions into measures quantifying the reliability, resolution and uncertainty of the forecasts are attractive. Information theory sets up a natural framework for forecast verification. Recently, it has been shown that the BS is a second-order approximation of the information-based Ignorance Score (IGN), which also contains easily interpretable components and can also be generalized to a ranked version (RIGN). Here, the IGN, its generalizations and decompositions are systematically discussed in analogy to the variants of the BS. Additionally, a Continuous Ranked IGN (CRIGN) is introduced in analogy to the CRPS. The useful properties of the conceptually appealing CRIGN are illustrated, together with an algorithm to evaluate its components reliability, resolution, and uncertainty for ensemble-generated forecasts. This algorithm can also be used to calculate the decomposition of the more traditional CRPS exactly. The applicability of the "new" measures is demonstrated in a small evaluation study of ensemble-based precipitation forecasts.

Diagnostic Utility of the Social Skills Improvement System Performance Screening Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krach, S. Kathleen; McCreery, Michael P.; Wang, Ye; Mohammadiamin, Houra; Cirks, Christen K.

2017-01-01

Researchers investigated the diagnostic utility of the Social Skills Improvement System: Performance Screening Guide (SSIS-PSG). Correlational, regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and conditional probability analyses were run to compare ratings on the SSIS-PSG subscales of Prosocial Behavior, Reading Skills, and Math Skills, to…

Videodisc Interpersonal Skills Training and Assessment (VISTA): Volume 2. Topics Analysis and Scenario Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-01-01

A-32 5. Descriptive Statistical Results of Topic Analysis. .. ... A-33 Bt APPENDIX A Part 1 Interpersonal Skills Interview* The... Statistical Results of Topic Analysis ,% Using Part 5 On the following pages, the rank orders of "Difficulty" are given for all 57 situations followed...Journal of Counseling Psychology, 1973, 20, 535-540. Avila, D. L., Combs, A. W., & Purkey, W. W. (Eds). The helping relationship I coursebook . Boston

Expectations and outcome skills of a generalist health care administrator.

PubMed

Jones, V B; Taylor, L C

1990-01-01

The question of the degree of technical versus managerial competence to be found in future graduates from health administration programs is not easily resolved. In the HIMSS 1988 survey of CIOs the attributes needed for success are listed in descending rank order as follows: leadership ability, vision/imagination, knowledge of hospital systems, business acumen, decisiveness, and technical competence. CIOs ranked technical competence as less important than other attributes associated with general management success. The expectations for attitudes, knowledge, and skills presented in this article support the greater importance of management abilities relative to pure technical competence. However, it is vital that an appropriate level of technical knowledge and skill be maintained to enable future alumni of health administration programs to function effectively as administrators. Depending on their role in a health care organization, greater or lesser technical knowledge may be needed. Those pursuing a career path toward CIO must, of necessity, have greater technical knowledge and skill. We have discussed necessary and expected attitudes, knowledge, and skills that will be needed by the generalist health administration graduate in the future. It will be important to develop and maintain an attitude that MIS is a strategic tool, that health care technology is a corporate asset, and that information is power. Graduates must recognize the necessity of maintaining and enhancing their knowledge and skills through continuing education. The knowledge base of MIS education should focus on determining information needs to support strategic goals, understanding of general systems theory, principles of systems analysis, design, implementation and maintenance, awareness and exposure to standard application software, and an awareness of external sources of data.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Pretraining and posttraining assessment of residents' performance in the fourth accreditation council for graduate medical education competency: patient communication skills.

PubMed

Chandawarkar, Rajiv Y; Ruscher, Kimberly A; Krajewski, Aleksandra; Garg, Manish; Pfeiffer, Carol; Singh, Rekha; Longo, Walter E; Kozol, Robert A; Lesnikoski, Beth; Nadkarni, Prakash

2011-08-01

Structured communication curricula will improve surgical residents' ability to communicate effectively with patients. A prospective study approved by the institutional review board involved 44 University of Connecticut general surgery residents. Residents initially completed a written baseline survey to assess general communication skills awareness. In step 1 of the study, residents were randomized to 1 of 2 simulations using standardized patient instructors to mimic patients receiving a diagnosis of either breast or rectal cancer. The standardized patient instructors scored residents' communication skills using a case-specific content checklist and Master Interview Rating Scale. In step 2 of the study, residents attended a 3-part interactive program that comprised (1) principles of patient communication; (2) experiences of a surgeon (role as physician, patient, and patient's spouse); and (3) role-playing (3-resident groups played patient, physician, and observer roles and rated their own performance). In step 3, residents were retested as in step 1, using a crossover case design. Scores were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed rank test with a Bonferroni correction. Case-specific performance improved significantly, from a pretest content checklist median score of 8.5 (65%) to a posttest median of 11.0 (84%) (P = .005 by Wilcoxon signed rank test for paired ordinal data)(n = 44). Median Master Interview Rating Scale scores changed from 58.0 before testing (P = .10) to 61.5 after testing (P = .94). Difference between overall rectal cancer scores and breast cancer scores also were not significant. Patient communication skills need to be taught as part of residency training. With limited training, case-specific skills (herein, involving patients with cancer) are likely to improve more than general communication skills.

A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform vectors for global ensemble generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Guo; Tian, Hua; Li, Xiaoli; Chen, Jing; Gong, Jiandong; Jiao, Meiyan

2012-02-01

To compare the initial perturbation techniques using breeding vectors and ensemble transform vectors, three ensemble prediction systems using both initial perturbation methods but with different ensemble member sizes based on the spectral model T213/L31 are constructed at the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration (NMC/CMA). A series of ensemble verification scores such as forecast skill of the ensemble mean, ensemble resolution, and ensemble reliability are introduced to identify the most important attributes of ensemble forecast systems. The results indicate that the ensemble transform technique is superior to the breeding vector method in light of the evaluation of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), which is a deterministic character of the ensemble mean, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and spread, which are of probabilistic attributes, and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and its decomposition. The advantage of the ensemble transform approach is attributed to its orthogonality among ensemble perturbations as well as its consistence with the data assimilation system. Therefore, this study may serve as a reference for configuration of the best ensemble prediction system to be used in operation.

What Does Age Have to Do with Skills Proficiency? Adult Skills in Focus #3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

OECD Publishing, 2016

2016-01-01

Adults tend to lose their information-processing skills as they age, especially if they do not use them. While older adults may compensate for this loss by developing other valuable skills, the importance of being proficient in information-processing skills in determining wages and employment does not diminish as workers age. Probably the most…

The Critical Care Communication project: improving fellows' communication skills.

PubMed

Arnold, Robert M; Back, Anthony L; Barnato, Amber E; Prendergast, Thomas J; Emlet, Lillian L; Karpov, Irina; White, Patrick H; Nelson, Judith E

2015-04-01

The aim of this study was to develop an evidence-based communication skills training workshop to improve the communication skills of critical care fellows. Pulmonary and critical care fellows (N = 38) participated in a 3-day communication skills workshop between 2008 and 2010 involving brief didactic talks, faculty demonstration of skills, and faculty-supervised small group skills practice sessions with simulated families. Skills included the following: giving bad news, achieving consensus on goals of therapy, and discussing the limitations of life-sustaining treatment. Participants rated their skill levels in a pre-post survey in 11 core communication tasks using a 5-point Likert scale. Of 38 fellows, 36 (95%) completed all 3 days of the workshop. We compared pre and post scores using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Overall, self-rated skills increased for all 11 tasks. In analyses by participant, 95% reported improvement in at least 1 skill; with improvement in a median of 10 of 11 skills. Ninety-two percent rated the course as either very good/excellent, and 80% recommended that it be mandatory for future fellows. This 3-day communication skills training program increased critical care fellows' self-reported family meeting communication skills. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discriminating Drug-Like Compounds by Partition Trees with Quantum Similarity Indices and Graph Invariants.

PubMed

Julián-Ortiz, Jesus V de; Gozalbes, Rafael; Besalú, Emili

2016-01-01

The search for new drug candidates in databases is of paramount importance in pharmaceutical chemistry. The selection of molecular subsets is greatly optimized and much more promising when potential drug-like molecules are detected a priori. In this work, about one hundred thousand molecules are ranked following a new methodology: a drug/non-drug classifier constructed by a consensual set of classification trees. The classification trees arise from the stochastic generation of training sets, which in turn are used to estimate probability factors of test molecules to be drug-like compounds. Molecules were represented by Topological Quantum Similarity Indices and their Graph Theoretical counterparts. The contribution of the present paper consists of presenting an effective ranking method able to improve the probability of finding drug-like substances by using these types of molecular descriptors.

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

DOE PAGES

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; ...

2017-06-09

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of “KMC stiffness” (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps / cpu-time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order tomore » achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events -- allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. Lastly, as shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.« less

SQERTSS: Dynamic rank based throttling of transition probabilities in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danielson, Thomas; Sutton, Jonathan E.; Hin, Céline; Savara, Aditya

2017-10-01

Lattice based Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations offer a powerful simulation technique for investigating large reaction networks while retaining spatial configuration information, unlike ordinary differential equations. However, large chemical reaction networks can contain reaction processes with rates spanning multiple orders of magnitude. This can lead to the problem of "KMC stiffness" (similar to stiffness in differential equations), where the computational expense has the potential to be overwhelmed by very short time-steps during KMC simulations, with the simulation spending an inordinate amount of KMC steps/CPU time simulating fast frivolous processes (FFPs) without progressing the system (reaction network). In order to achieve simulation times that are experimentally relevant or desired for predictions, a dynamic throttling algorithm involving separation of the processes into speed-ranks based on event frequencies has been designed and implemented with the intent of decreasing the probability of FFP events, and increasing the probability of slow process events-allowing rate limiting events to become more likely to be observed in KMC simulations. This Staggered Quasi-Equilibrium Rank-based Throttling for Steady-state (SQERTSS) algorithm is designed for use in achieving and simulating steady-state conditions in KMC simulations. As shown in this work, the SQERTSS algorithm also works for transient conditions: the correct configuration space and final state will still be achieved if the required assumptions are not violated, with the caveat that the sizes of the time-steps may be distorted during the transient period.

Systemic Sclerosis Classification Criteria: Developing methods for multi-criteria decision analysis with 1000Minds

PubMed Central

Johnson, Sindhu R.; Naden, Raymond P.; Fransen, Jaap; van den Hoogen, Frank; Pope, Janet E.; Baron, Murray; Tyndall, Alan; Matucci-Cerinic, Marco; Denton, Christopher P.; Distler, Oliver; Gabrielli, Armando; van Laar, Jacob M.; Mayes, Maureen; Steen, Virginia; Seibold, James R.; Clements, Phillip; Medsger, Thomas A.; Carreira, Patricia E.; Riemekasten, Gabriela; Chung, Lorinda; Fessler, Barri J.; Merkel, Peter A.; Silver, Richard; Varga, John; Allanore, Yannick; Mueller-Ladner, Ulf; Vonk, Madelon C.; Walker, Ulrich A.; Cappelli, Susanna; Khanna, Dinesh

2014-01-01

Objective Classification criteria for systemic sclerosis (SSc) are being developed. The objectives were to: develop an instrument for collating case-data and evaluate its sensibility; use forced-choice methods to reduce and weight criteria; and explore agreement between experts on the probability that cases were classified as SSc. Study Design and Setting A standardized instrument was tested for sensibility. The instrument was applied to 20 cases covering a range of probabilities that each had SSc. Experts rank-ordered cases from highest to lowest probability; reduced and weighted the criteria using forced-choice methods; and re-ranked the cases. Consistency in rankings was evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Results Experts endorsed clarity (83%), comprehensibility (100%), face and content validity (100%). Criteria were weighted (points): finger skin thickening (14–22), finger-tip lesions (9–21), friction rubs (21), finger flexion contractures (16), pulmonary fibrosis (14), SSc-related antibodies (15), Raynaud’s phenomenon (13), calcinosis (12), pulmonary hypertension (11), renal crisis (11), telangiectasia (10), abnormal nailfold capillaries (10), esophageal dilation (7) and puffy fingers (5). The ICC across experts was 0.73 (95%CI 0.58,0.86) and improved to 0.80 (95%CI 0.68,0.90). Conclusions Using a sensible instrument and forced-choice methods, the number of criteria were reduced by 39% (23 to 14) and weighted. Our methods reflect the rigors of measurement science, and serves as a template for developing classification criteria. PMID:24721558

Improving Student Social Skills in Structured and Unstructured Situations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finzer, Sharon; Green, Patricia; Mizen, Julie; Sennstrom, Sandra

This action research project involved the implementation and evaluation of a program to increase use of appropriate social skills among third-grade students. The problem of inadequate social skills was documented by means of teacher observations and notice of misbehavior forms. Probable causes for students' lack of social skills were concluded to…

Skills on the Move: Rethinking the Relationship Between Human Capital and Immigrant Economic Mobility *

PubMed Central

Hagan, Jacqueline; Lowe, Nichola; Quingla, Christian

2013-01-01

Studies of immigrant labor market incorporation in the unregulated sector of the US economy either assume that immigrant workers are trapped in low-wage jobs because of low human capital, or paint a picture of blocked mobility because of exploitation and discrimination. In this paper we offer a third sociological alternative to understand processes of occupational mobility and skill learning. Drawing on work histories of 111 immigrant construction workers, we find that many immigrants are skilled, having come to their jobs with technical skill sets acquired in their home communities and their previous U.S. jobs. We further find that these less-educated immigrants, who rank low on traditional human capital attributes but high on work experience may circumvent exploitation and build mobility pathways through skill transference, on- the- job reskilling, and brincando (job jumping). PMID:23700356

Development of Genuine Neural Network Prototype Chip

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-28

priori distribution is equivalent, and more readily visualized with a rank curve . The sonar signal data consisted of approximately 85% class Target and...15% class Clutter. For this reason, the rank curves for the class Clutter were used for device parameter analysis. R & D STATUS REPORT 1/28/91 N00014...the signal CLASSLD#. Four 10-bit class probabilities are available on the output bus (C0-C9, C16-C25, C32-C41 and C48- C57 ) at each clock cycle. A

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Undergraduate Mathematics Students' Pronumeral Misconceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardini, Caroline; Vincent, Jill; Pierce, Robyn; King, Deborah

2014-01-01

Despite an emphasis on manipulative algebraic techniques in secondary school algebra, many tertiary mathematics students have mastered these skills without conceptual understanding. A significant number of students with high tertiary entrance ranks enrolled in first semester university mathematics were found to have misconceptions relating to…

Individual variation in social aggression and the probability of inheritance: theory and a field test.

PubMed

Cant, Michael A; Llop, Justine B; Field, Jeremy

2006-06-01

Recent theory suggests that much of the wide variation in individual behavior that exists within cooperative animal societies can be explained by variation in the future direct component of fitness, or the probability of inheritance. Here we develop two models to explore the effect of variation in future fitness on social aggression. The models predict that rates of aggression will be highest toward the front of the queue to inherit and will be higher in larger, more productive groups. A third prediction is that, in seasonal animals, aggression will increase as the time available to inherit the breeding position runs out. We tested these predictions using a model social species, the paper wasp Polistes dominulus. We found that rates of both aggressive "displays" (aimed at individuals of lower rank) and aggressive "tests" (aimed at individuals of higher rank) decreased down the hierarchy, as predicted by our models. The only other significant factor affecting aggression rates was date, with more aggression observed later in the season, also as predicted. Variation in future fitness due to inheritance rank is the hidden factor accounting for much of the variation in aggressiveness among apparently equivalent individuals in this species.

Instructor perceptions of the accident likelihood faced by recently trained glider pilots.

PubMed

Jarvis, Steve; Harris, Don

2011-12-01

U.K. glider pilots with less than 10 h of solo flying time have been shown to have the highest accident rate and be most vulnerable to accidents during the 'final approach' phase. There were 58 gliding instructors who were asked to indicate what experience level they thought was associated with the highest accident rate and provide the reason behind their estimate. They were also asked to rank six flight phases by the relative probability of accidents to inexperienced pilots. The mean estimate for the accident peak was 296.3 h as pilot-in-command (SD = 337.9) with no instructor giving a figure of less than 10 h. Common reasons for these estimates were 'over-confidence', 'risk-taking', or 'complacency'. Instructors also ranked six flight phases by the likelihood of an accident being caused by inexperienced pilots during that phase. Despite the approach phase having the highest objective accident probability, it was only ranked fifth by instructors, indicating an underestimate of the danger it presents to newly trained pilots. The results suggest that instructors do not appreciate the high accident likelihood of early solo pilots or the main dangers they face. This has implications for the decisions made when sending pilots solo.

Using textons to rank crystallization droplets by the likely presence of crystals

PubMed Central

Ng, Jia Tsing; Dekker, Carien; Kroemer, Markus; Osborne, Michael; von Delft, Frank

2014-01-01

The visual inspection of crystallization experiments is an important yet time-consuming and subjective step in X-ray crystallo­graphy. Previously published studies have focused on automatically classifying crystallization droplets into distinct but ultimately arbitrary experiment outcomes; here, a method is described that instead ranks droplets by their likelihood of containing crystals or microcrystals, thereby prioritizing for visual inspection those images that are most likely to contain useful information. The use of textons is introduced to describe crystallization droplets objectively, allowing them to be scored with the posterior probability of a random forest classifier trained against droplets manually annotated for the presence or absence of crystals or microcrystals. Unlike multi-class classification, this two-class system lends itself naturally to unidirectional ranking, which is most useful for assisting sequential viewing because images can be arranged simply by using these scores: this places droplets with probable crystalline behaviour early in the viewing order. Using this approach, the top ten wells included at least one human-annotated crystal or microcrystal for 94% of the plates in a data set of 196 plates imaged with a Minstrel HT system. The algorithm is robustly transferable to at least one other imaging system: when the parameters trained from Minstrel HT images are applied to a data set imaged by the Rock Imager system, human-annotated crystals ranked in the top ten wells for 90% of the plates. Because rearranging images is fundamental to the approach, a custom viewer was written to seamlessly support such ranked viewing, along with another important output of the algorithm, namely the shape of the curve of scores, which is itself a useful overview of the behaviour of the plate; additional features with known usefulness were adopted from existing viewers. Evidence is presented that such ranked viewing of images allows faster but more accurate evaluation of drops, in particular for the identification of microcrystals. PMID:25286854

Assessing outcomes of industrial hygiene graduate education.

PubMed

Brosseau, Lisa; Fredrickson, Ann

2009-05-01

To ensure that industrial hygiene professionals continue to be prepared for current and future trends, it is important to regularly assess the value of their education. Described here are the results of discussions with employers and a mailed survey of graduates. Comparisons are made with past mailed surveys of both groups. Two sets of discussions were held in late 2005 with employers of industrial hygienists and other health and safety professionals. Twenty-eight participants were asked to discuss current and future needs for professionals in their organization and economic sector, their expectations for knowledge and skills when hiring professionals, methods for finding and hiring, and the importance of ABET accreditation. At the same time, a survey was mailed to 71 industrial hygiene students graduating in the last 15 years. Respondents were asked to rank the value of and their proficiency in 42 competencies. Questions also assessed employment experience, certification, the importance of ABET accreditation, and demographic characteristics. There was a lot of agreement between the two stakeholder groups (employers and graduates) about the most important skill and knowledge areas. Most employers identified communicating effectively and exposure assessment among the most important skills, with designing and initiating research as among the least. Hazard recognition, exposure measurement principles, and personal protective equipment were the most highly ranked knowledge areas. Employers discussed the need for good "business skills" such as teamwork, communication, and project management, and the importance of problem-solving skills. Graduates reported that skills in the areas of recognition, evaluation, and control were most valuable in their first jobs and generally reported high levels of proficiency in these skill areas. There was a similar dichotomy in opinions about accreditation within each stakeholder group. The reputation of the academic program was important when making hiring decisions; accreditation became an important factor only when a program's reputation was not known. Graduates strongly supported ongoing accreditation but did not apply or attend on the basis of accreditation.

Reliability of Pressure Ulcer Rates: How Precisely Can We Differentiate Among Hospital Units, and Does the Standard Signal-Noise Reliability Measure Reflect This Precision?

PubMed

Staggs, Vincent S; Cramer, Emily

2016-08-01

Hospital performance reports often include rankings of unit pressure ulcer rates. Differentiating among units on the basis of quality requires reliable measurement. Our objectives were to describe and apply methods for assessing reliability of hospital-acquired pressure ulcer rates and evaluate a standard signal-noise reliability measure as an indicator of precision of differentiation among units. Quarterly pressure ulcer data from 8,199 critical care, step-down, medical, surgical, and medical-surgical nursing units from 1,299 US hospitals were analyzed. Using beta-binomial models, we estimated between-unit variability (signal) and within-unit variability (noise) in annual unit pressure ulcer rates. Signal-noise reliability was computed as the ratio of between-unit variability to the total of between- and within-unit variability. To assess precision of differentiation among units based on ranked pressure ulcer rates, we simulated data to estimate the probabilities of a unit's observed pressure ulcer rate rank in a given sample falling within five and ten percentiles of its true rank, and the probabilities of units with ulcer rates in the highest quartile and highest decile being identified as such. We assessed the signal-noise measure as an indicator of differentiation precision by computing its correlations with these probabilities. Pressure ulcer rates based on a single year of quarterly or weekly prevalence surveys were too susceptible to noise to allow for precise differentiation among units, and signal-noise reliability was a poor indicator of precision of differentiation. To ensure precise differentiation on the basis of true differences, alternative methods of assessing reliability should be applied to measures purported to differentiate among providers or units based on quality. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Research in Nursing & Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The preferred traits of mates in a cross-national study of heterosexual and homosexual men and women: an examination of biological and cultural influences.

PubMed

Lippa, Richard A

2007-04-01

BBC Internet survey participants (119,733 men and 98,462 women) chose from a list of 23 traits those they considered first, second, and third most important in a relationship partner. Across all participants, the traits ranked most important were: intelligence, humor, honesty, kindness, overall good looks, face attractiveness, values, communication skills, and dependability. On average, men ranked good looks and facial attractiveness more important than women did (d = 0.55 and 0.36, respectively), whereas women ranked honesty, humor, kindness, and dependability more important than men did (ds = 0.23, 0.22, 0.18, and 0.15). Sexual orientation differences were smaller than sex differences in trait rankings, but some were meaningful; for example, heterosexual more than homosexual participants assigned importance to religion, fondness for children, and parenting abilities. Multidimensional scaling analyses showed that trait preference profiles clustered by participant sex, not by sexual orientation, and by sex more than by nationality. Sex-by-nation ANOVAs of individuals' trait rankings showed that sex differences in rankings of attractiveness, but not of character traits, were extremely consistent across 53 nations and that nation main effects and sex-by-nation interactions were stronger for character traits than for physical attractiveness. United Nations indices of gender equality correlated, across nations, with men's and women's rankings of character traits but not with their rankings of physical attractiveness. These results suggest that cultural factors had a relatively greater impact on men's and women's rankings of character traits, whereas biological factors had a relatively greater impact on men's and women's rankings of physical attractiveness.

Job Performance: Improvement Needed

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, Jacob

1974-01-01

Personnel directors of 38 business firms responded to a questionnaire rating 24 employee traits related to competencies, attitudes, skills, and personality which needed improvement. Five traits were common among the rank order one to five to both retailer and commercial and service organization respondents: oral communication, initiative,…

The construction of the indicators of professional competence for exercise instructors of the elderly.

PubMed

Lan, Hsiao-Ching; Li, Chih-Ping; Zheng, Hao-Wei

2015-09-25

The purpose of this study was to construct the quality indicators of professional competence for exercise instructors of the elderly, and then to rank the importance among those indicators. This study used the Delphi technique to integrate the opinions of 11 experts to construct the indicators, and then adopts the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the relative rank among each individual indicator. Results revealed that the experts identified 3 first-degree indicators (professional attitude, professional skills, and professional knowledge), 10 second-degree indicators (teaching attitude, exercise knowledge, professional growth, exercise safety, personal characteristics, exercise instructor, gerontology knowledge, communicative competence, curriculum design, and motor skill), and 72 third-degree indicators. In the indicator weighting system, professional attitude was the most important among all other first-degree indicators, and the teaching attitude was the most important among all other second-degree indicators. The results provided will help in planning the curriculums of training, professional growth and evaluation. The results also provide a reference for future research.

The construction of the indicators of professional competence for exercise instructors of the elderly.

PubMed

Lan, Hsiao-Ching; Li, Chih-Ping; Zheng, Hao-Wei

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to construct the quality indicators of professional competence for exercise instructors of the elderly, and then to rank the importance among those indicators. This study used the Delphi technique to integrate the opinions of 11 experts to construct the indicators, and then adopts the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate the relative rank among each individual indicator. Results revealed that the experts identified 3 first-degree indicators (professional attitude, professional skills, and professional knowledge), 10 second-degree indicators (teaching attitude, exercise knowledge, professional growth, exercise safety, personal characteristics, exercise instructor, gerontology knowledge, communicative competence, curriculum design, and motor skill), and 72 third-degree indicators. In the indicator weighting system, professional attitude was the most important among all other first-degree indicators, and the teaching attitude was the most important among all other second-degree indicators. The results provided will help in planning the curriculums of training, professional growth and evaluation. The results also provide a reference for future research.

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex, southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Stevens, Michael R.

2013-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex near South Fork in southwestern Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within and just downstream from the burned area, and to estimate the same for 54 drainage basins of interest within the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the debris-flow models included topographic variables, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm; (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm; and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the 54 drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 65 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from 1 to 77 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from 1 to 83 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Twelve of the 54 drainage basins of interest have a 30-percent probability or greater of producing a debris flow in response to the 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 2,400 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages also were predicted to produce substantial debris flows. One of the 54 drainage basins of interest had the highest combined hazard ranking, while 9 other basins had the second highest combined hazard ranking. Of these 10 basins with the 2 highest combined hazard rankings, 7 basins had predicted debris-flow volumes exceeding 100,000 cubic meters, while 3 had predicted probabilities of debris flows exceeding 60 percent. The 10 basins with high combined hazard ranking include 3 tributaries in the headwaters of Trout Creek, four tributaries to the West Fork San Juan River, Hope Creek draining toward a county road on the eastern edge of the burn, Lake Fork draining to U.S. Highway 160, and Leopard Creek on the northern edge of the burn. The probabilities and volumes for the modeled storms indicate a potential for debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 160, on the eastern edge of the burn area, also is susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odafe, Victor U.

2011-01-01

Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

Efficacy of Laparoscopic Nissen Fundoplication vs Transoral Incisionless Fundoplication or Proton Pump Inhibitors in Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Richter, Joel E; Kumar, Ambuj; Lipka, Seth; Miladinovic, Branko; Velanovich, Vic

2018-04-01

The effects of transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF) and laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication (LNF) have been compared with those of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) or a sham procedure in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), but there has been no direct comparison of TIF vs LNF. We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to compare the relative efficacies of TIF vs LNF in patients with GERD. We searched publication databases and conference abstracts through May 10, 2017 for randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of TIF or LNF with that of a sham procedure or PPIs in patients with GERD. We performed a network meta-analysis using Bayesian methods under random-effects multiple treatment comparisons. We assessed ranking probability by surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Our search identified 7 trials comprising 1128 patients. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve ranking indicated TIF had highest probability of increasing patients' health-related quality of life (0.96), followed by LNF (0.66), a sham procedure (0.35), and PPIs (0.042). LNF had the highest probability of increasing percent time at pH <4 (0.99), followed by PPIs (0.64), TIF (0.32), and the sham procedure (0.05). LNF also had the highest probability of increasing LES pressure (0.78), followed by TIF (0.72) and PPIs (0.01). Patients who underwent the sham procedure had the highest probability for persistent esophagitis (0.74), followed by those receiving TIF (0.69), LNF (0.38), and PPIs (0.19). Meta-regression showed a shorter follow-up time as a significant confounder for the outcome of health-related quality of life in studies of TIF. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis of trials of patients with GERD, we found LNF to have the greatest ability to improve physiologic parameters of GERD, including increased LES pressure and decreased percent time pH <4. Although TIF produced the largest increase in health-related quality of life, this could be due to the shorter follow-up time of patients treated with TIF vs LNF or PPIs. TIF is a minimally invasive endoscopic procedure, yet based on evaluation of benefits vs risks, we do not recommend it as a long-term alternative to PPI or LNF treatment of GERD. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fight for your breeding right: hierarchy re-establishment predicts aggression in a social queue

PubMed Central

Wong, Marian; Balshine, Sigal

2011-01-01

Social aggression is one of the most conspicuous features of animal societies, yet little is known about the causes of individual variation in aggression within social hierarchies. Recent theory suggests that when individuals form queues for breeding, variation in social aggression by non-breeding group members is related to their probability of inheriting breeding status. However, levels of aggression could also vary as a temporary response to changes in the hierarchy, with individuals becoming more aggressive as they ascend in rank, in order to re-establish dominance relationships. Using the group-living fish, Neolamprologus pulcher, we show that subordinates became more aggressive after they ascended in rank. Female ascenders exhibited more rapid increases in aggression than males, and the increased aggression was primarily directed towards group members of adjacent rather than non-adjacent rank, suggesting that social aggression was related to conflict over rank. Elevated aggression by ascenders was not sustained over time, there was no relationship between rank and aggression in stable groups, and aggression given by ascenders was not sex-biased. Together, these results suggest that the need to re-establish dominance relationships following rank ascension is an important determinant of variation in aggression in animal societies. PMID:20880857

Fight for your breeding right: hierarchy re-establishment predicts aggression in a social queue.

PubMed

Wong, Marian; Balshine, Sigal

2011-04-23

Social aggression is one of the most conspicuous features of animal societies, yet little is known about the causes of individual variation in aggression within social hierarchies. Recent theory suggests that when individuals form queues for breeding, variation in social aggression by non-breeding group members is related to their probability of inheriting breeding status. However, levels of aggression could also vary as a temporary response to changes in the hierarchy, with individuals becoming more aggressive as they ascend in rank, in order to re-establish dominance relationships. Using the group-living fish, Neolamprologus pulcher, we show that subordinates became more aggressive after they ascended in rank. Female ascenders exhibited more rapid increases in aggression than males, and the increased aggression was primarily directed towards group members of adjacent rather than non-adjacent rank, suggesting that social aggression was related to conflict over rank. Elevated aggression by ascenders was not sustained over time, there was no relationship between rank and aggression in stable groups, and aggression given by ascenders was not sex-biased. Together, these results suggest that the need to re-establish dominance relationships following rank ascension is an important determinant of variation in aggression in animal societies.

Rank Dynamics of Word Usage at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, José A.; Colman, Ewan; Sánchez, Sergio; Sánchez-Puig, Fernanda; Pineda, Carlos; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Cocho, Germinal; Flores, Jorge; Gershenson, Carlos

2018-05-01

The recent dramatic increase in online data availability has allowed researchers to explore human culture with unprecedented detail, such as the growth and diversification of language. In particular, it provides statistical tools to explore whether word use is similar across languages, and if so, whether these generic features appear at different scales of language structure. Here we use the Google Books N-grams dataset to analyze the temporal evolution of word usage in several languages. We apply measures proposed recently to study rank dynamics, such as the diversity of N-grams in a given rank, the probability that an N-gram changes rank between successive time intervals, the rank entropy, and the rank complexity. Using different methods, results show that there are generic properties for different languages at different scales, such as a core of words necessary to minimally understand a language. We also propose a null model to explore the relevance of linguistic structure across multiple scales, concluding that N-gram statistics cannot be reduced to word statistics. We expect our results to be useful in improving text prediction algorithms, as well as in shedding light on the large-scale features of language use, beyond linguistic and cultural differences across human populations.

On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, S.; Bröcker, J.; Kantz, H.

2012-03-01

In numerical weather prediction, ensembles are used to retrieve probabilistic forecasts of future weather conditions. We consider events where the verification is smaller than the smallest, or larger than the largest ensemble member of a scalar ensemble forecast. These events are called outliers. In a statistically consistent K-member ensemble, outliers should occur with a base rate of 2/(K+1). In operational ensembles this base rate tends to be higher. We study the predictability of outlier events in terms of the Brier Skill Score and find that forecast probabilities can be calculated which are more skillful than the unconditional base rate. This is shown analytically for statistically consistent ensembles. Using logistic regression, forecast probabilities for outlier events in an operational ensemble are calculated. These probabilities exhibit positive skill which is quantitatively similar to the analytical results. Possible causes of these results as well as their consequences for ensemble interpretation are discussed.

Log-Linear Models for Gene Association

PubMed Central

Hu, Jianhua; Joshi, Adarsh; Johnson, Valen E.

2009-01-01

We describe a class of log-linear models for the detection of interactions in high-dimensional genomic data. This class of models leads to a Bayesian model selection algorithm that can be applied to data that have been reduced to contingency tables using ranks of observations within subjects, and discretization of these ranks within gene/network components. Many normalization issues associated with the analysis of genomic data are thereby avoided. A prior density based on Ewens’ sampling distribution is used to restrict the number of interacting components assigned high posterior probability, and the calculation of posterior model probabilities is expedited by approximations based on the likelihood ratio statistic. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the efficiency of the resulting algorithm for known interaction structures. Finally, the algorithm is validated in a microarray study for which it was possible to obtain biological confirmation of detected interactions. PMID:19655032

Meeting the Demands of the Workplace: Science Students and Written Skills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, F. Elizabeth; Emerson, Lisa; Mackay, Bruce

2005-12-01

Over the last 15 years, surveys in a range of English-speaking countries, from North America and the United Kingdom, to New Zealand and Australia, have consistently shown that employers rank oral and written communication skills as highly as or more highly than any technical or quantitative skills. However, in New Zealand there has been very little research into determining exactly what is meant by the "written communication skills" employers state they desire. A further issue in this research to date has been a lack of differentiation between employers—no study has specifically targeted the requirements of employers of science graduates. This article reports the findings of ongoing research into the expectations of science students and of employers of science graduates, and centers around several key questions: What do New Zealand employers of science graduates specifically want in terms of their new hires' writing skills?

Rank Regressions, Wage Distributions, and the Gender Gap.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortin, Nicole M.; Lemieux, Thomas

1998-01-01

Current Population Survey data from 1979 and 1991 were used to decompose changes in the gender wage gap into three components: skill distribution, wage structure, and improvements in women's position. Relative wage gains by women may have been a source of increasing wage inequality among men. (SK)

Teachers Job Satisfaction and Motivation for School Effectiveness: An Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ololube, Nwachukwu Prince

2006-01-01

Significantly, job satisfaction and motivation are very essential to the continuing growth of educational systems around the world and they rank alongside professional knowledge and skills, center competencies, educational resources as well as strategies, in genuinely determining educational success and performance. This study assessed the…

What CEOs Expect of Employees Hired for International Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dirks, Ruthann; Buzzard, Janet

1997-01-01

Managers from 47 Kansas City companies identified skills and knowledge important for their international employees. Oral and written communication ranked highest, followed by exporting, customs, marketing, business etiquette, and protocol. Employees with high school education had markedly different overseas assignments than did college graduates.…

An Observed Structured Teaching Evaluation Demonstrates the Impact of a Resident-as-Teacher Curriculum on Teaching Competency.

PubMed

Zackoff, Matthew; Jerardi, Karen; Unaka, Ndidi; Sucharew, Heidi; Klein, Melissa

2015-06-01

Residents play a critical role in the education of peers and medical students, yet attainment of teaching skills is not routinely assessed. The primary aim of this study was to develop a novel, skill-based Observed Structured Teaching Evaluation (OSTE) and self-assessment survey to measure the impact of a resident-as-teacher curriculum on teaching competency. The secondary aim was to determine interrater reliability of the OSTE. A prospective study quantitatively assessed intern teaching competency via videotaped teaching encounters (videos) before and after a month-long hospital medicine rotation and self-assessment surveys over a 5-month period. The intervention group received the resident-as-teacher curriculum. Videos were evaluated by 2 blinded faculty via an OSTE covering 9 skills within 3 core components: preparation, teaching, and reflection. Pre- to post-HM rotation month differences were evaluated within and between groups using the Wilcoxon signed rank test and Wilcoxon rank-sum test, respectively. Twenty-two of 25 (88%) control and 27 of 28 (96%) intervention interns participated; 100% of participants completed the study. The intervention group's pre-post difference for the total OSTE score and the average self-assessed competence statistically improved; however, no significant difference was seen between groups. The difference in preparation scores was significant for the intervention compared with the control. The OSTE's interrater reliability demonstrated good agreement with weighted kappas of 0.86 for preparation, 0.71 for teaching, and 0.93 for reflection. Implementation of an objective, skill-based OSTE detected observable changes in interns' teaching competency after implementation of a brief resident-as-teacher curriculum. The OSTE's good interrater reliability may allow standardized assessment of skill attainment over time. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Health-profession students’ teaching and learning expectations in Ugandan medical schools: pre- and postcommunity placement comparison

PubMed Central

Wakida, Edith K; Ruzaaza, Gad; Muggaga, Kintu; Akera, Peter; Oria, Hussein; Kiguli, Sarah

2015-01-01

Purpose The benefits of community-based medical education for both students and teachers are becoming increasingly clear. However, there is paucity of information about the importance of incorporating students’ thoughts in the community-based education curriculum and the impact it has on their intentions to work in rural communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the teaching and learning expectations before and after placement of health-profession students going for community placement for the first time and make suggestions for improvement of the community-based programs. Methods The study was a cross-sectional survey with both structured and unstructured questions. Participants were recruited from four medical schools in Uganda targeting 100% participation of health-profession students going for community placement in 2014. In total, 454 and 305 participants responded to self-administered questionnaires before and after community placement, respectively; and they were from different programs and years of study. Results Students’ learning expectations before placement, in ranking were: community engagement, interpersonal skills, community diagnosis, clinical skills, lifestyle practices, and patient management. After placement, the order of ranking was: interpersonal skills, community engagement, community diagnosis, lifestyle practices, clinical skills, and patient management. Most of the students had prior rural exposure and expected to do community engagement. However, after community placement they indicated having developed interpersonal skills. The various health-profession students were able to harmoniously work together to achieve a common purpose, which they find difficult to do in a classroom environment. Conclusion Having student teams comprised of different health programs and years of study going for community placement together promoted peer-to-peer mentorship and enhanced team building during community placement. PMID:26677345

The importance of clinical research skills according to PharmD students, first-year residents, and residency directors.

PubMed

Anderson, Heather D; Saseen, Joseph J

Research has a prominent role within the field of pharmacy practice. However, no studies have assessed the importance of research methods in pharmacy education from the perspective of students, residents, or residency directors. Questionnaires were administered online in spring 2014 to four respondent groups: University of Colorado fourth year PharmD (P4) students, post graduate year 1 (PGY1) residents, and PGY1 and post-graduate year 2 (PGY2) residency directors. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize respondents; t-tests and chi-square tests were used to compare groups of respondents. Respondents included 255 PGY1 residency directors, 155 PGY2 residency directors, 35 PGY1 residents, and 87 P4 students. Response rates ranged from 26% (residency directors) to nearly 60% (P4 students and PGY1 residents). PGY1 residents and PGY1/PGY2 residency directors ranked research experience lowest among ten characteristics with respect to their importance when competing for a residency or being a successful resident. Among six specific clinical research skills, PGY1 residents and PGY1/PGY2 residency directors ranked "identifying and writing a research question" as the most important for successfully completing a residency research project or when selecting a PGY1/PGY2 resident. Perceived importance of clinical research skills by P4 students, current residents, and residency program directors is low. This is in opposition to opinions from several national organizations that proclaim the importance of clinical research skills in doctor of pharmacy curricula. Pharmacy programs must continue to further develop clinical research skills and abilities of future graduates while being cognizant of these perception barriers when developing strategies to enhance research experiences within their curricular programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health-profession students' teaching and learning expectations in Ugandan medical schools: pre- and postcommunity placement comparison.

PubMed

Wakida, Edith K; Ruzaaza, Gad; Muggaga, Kintu; Akera, Peter; Oria, Hussein; Kiguli, Sarah

2015-01-01

The benefits of community-based medical education for both students and teachers are becoming increasingly clear. However, there is paucity of information about the importance of incorporating students' thoughts in the community-based education curriculum and the impact it has on their intentions to work in rural communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the teaching and learning expectations before and after placement of health-profession students going for community placement for the first time and make suggestions for improvement of the community-based programs. The study was a cross-sectional survey with both structured and unstructured questions. Participants were recruited from four medical schools in Uganda targeting 100% participation of health-profession students going for community placement in 2014. In total, 454 and 305 participants responded to self-administered questionnaires before and after community placement, respectively; and they were from different programs and years of study. Students' learning expectations before placement, in ranking were: community engagement, interpersonal skills, community diagnosis, clinical skills, lifestyle practices, and patient management. After placement, the order of ranking was: interpersonal skills, community engagement, community diagnosis, lifestyle practices, clinical skills, and patient management. Most of the students had prior rural exposure and expected to do community engagement. However, after community placement they indicated having developed interpersonal skills. The various health-profession students were able to harmoniously work together to achieve a common purpose, which they find difficult to do in a classroom environment. Having student teams comprised of different health programs and years of study going for community placement together promoted peer-to-peer mentorship and enhanced team building during community placement.

A discrepancy in objective and subjective measures of knowledge: do some medical students with learning problems delude themselves?

PubMed

Anthoney, T R

1986-01-01

In general, the rankings of first-year medical students on a written test of long-term neuroscience retention (RET) correlated strongly with how many of three neuroscience research presentations given within the following 2 days the students reported understanding. The lowest-ranking sixth of the class on RET, however, reported understanding almost every lecture, even more than the highest-ranking RET students did. Some of these low-ranking students were aware that they had areas of weakness, but simply tolerated more of them without reporting overall lack of understanding. Other low-ranking students, however, seemed genuinely unaware that they had any areas of weakness. This interpretation was further supported by data on small-group problem-solving performance during the first-year neuroscience course, on use of human resources during the final first-year neuroscience take-home examination, and on performance during the third-year clinical clerkships. Persistence of the problem, even after 5 months of instruction specifically designed to improve such information-processing skills, suggests that correction may be difficult to achieve. The need for specific valid evaluative instruments and effective correctional techniques is noted.

Spectral Bayesian Knowledge Tracing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falakmasir, Mohammad; Yudelson, Michael; Ritter, Steve; Koedinger, Ken

2015-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) has been in wide use for modeling student skill acquisition in Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). BKT tracks and updates student's latent mastery of a skill as a probability distribution of a binary variable. BKT does so by accounting for observed student successes in applying the skill correctly, where success is…

Reading Processes and Parenting Styles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carreteiro, Rui Manuel; Justo, João Manuel; Figueira, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

Home literacy environment explains between 12 and 18.5% of the variance of children's language skills. Although most authors agree that children whose parents encourage them to read tend to develop better and earlier reading skills, some authors consider that the impact of family environment in reading skills is overvalued. Probably, other…

Methodological adaptations for investigating the perceptions of language-impaired adolescents regarding the relative importance of selected communication skills.

PubMed

Reed, Vicki A; Brammall, Helen

2006-01-01

This article describes the systematic and detailed processes undertaken to modify a research methodology for use with language-impaired adolescents. The original methodology had been used previously with normally achieving adolescents and speech pathologists to obtain their opinions about the relative importance of selected communication skills for adolescents' positive peer relationships. Modifications attempted to address language-impaired adolescents' characteristic metalinguistic, literacy, cognitive, and information processing weaknesses. Revising the original wording of the communication skills, reducing the reading level of the skills from grade 10 to 4.6, using a Q-sort approach to ranking the importance of the skills, and revising the instructions and administration procedures led to what pilot testing results indicated was a valid methodology for use with language-impaired adolescents. Results of a preliminary study using the revised methodology suggested that language-impaired adolescents may perceive the relative importance of some communication skills differently from their normally achieving peers.

Analysis of the Hessian for Inverse Scattering Problems. Part 3. Inverse Medium Scattering of Electromagnetic Waves in Three Dimensions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This in turn enables fast solution of an appropriately...implication of the compactness of the Hessian is that for small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This...probability distribution is given by the inverse of the Hessian of the negative log likelihood function. For Gaussian data noise and model error, this

Student Practices, Learning, and Attitudes When Using Computerized Ranking Tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kevin M.; Prather, E. E.; Collaboration of Astronomy Teaching Scholars CATS

2011-01-01

Ranking Tasks are a novel type of conceptual exercise based on a technique called rule assessment. Ranking Tasks present students with a series of four to eight icons that describe slightly different variations of a basic physical situation. Students are then asked to identify the order, or ranking, of the various situations based on some physical outcome or result. The structure of Ranking Tasks makes it difficult for students to rely strictly on memorized answers and mechanical substitution of formulae. In addition, by changing the presentation of the different scenarios (e.g., photographs, line diagrams, graphs, tables, etc.) we find that Ranking Tasks require students to develop mental schema that are more flexible and robust. Ranking tasks may be implemented on the computer which requires students to order the icons through drag-and-drop. Computer implementation allows the incorporation of background material, grading with feedback, and providing additional similar versions of the task through randomization so that students can build expertise through practice. This poster will summarize the results of a study of student usage of computerized ranking tasks. We will investigate 1) student practices (How do they make use of these tools?), 2) knowledge and skill building (Do student scores improve with iteration and are there diminishing returns?), and 3) student attitudes toward using computerized Ranking Tasks (Do they like using them?). This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0715517, a CCLI Phase III Grant for the Collaboration of Astronomy Teaching Scholars (CATS). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Undergraduate Mathematics Students' Understanding of the Concept of Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bardini, Caroline; Pierce, Robyn; Vincent, Jill; King, Deborah

2014-01-01

Concern has been expressed that many commencing undergraduate mathematics students have mastered skills without conceptual understanding. A pilot study carried out at a leading Australian university indicates that a significant number of students, with high tertiary entrance ranks, have very limited understanding of the concept of function,…

A Comparison of Concerns of Secondary and Elementary Student Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahan, James M.

Elementary and secondary school student teachers were tested before, during, and after their teaching experiences to determine if there were changes in their concerns about teaching. Three categories of concerns, each with eight items, were ranked: methods concerns, pertaining to instructional skills and content knowledge; cultural concerns,…

How to Start a STEM Team

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Bill

2009-01-01

The United States' poor performance in teaching math and science eliminates many of the best and brightest school children from the ranks of future scientists and engineers. With little chance to learn in school how science and math skills might translate into professionally useful knowledge, students are unable to make informed choices about…

A Multicultural Approach to Teach Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caetano, Nídia; Rocha, João; Quadrado, José Carlos; Cardoso, José Marílio; Felgueiras, Manuel Carlos

2015-01-01

Globalization is a trend that covers all society perspectives in general, and higher education in particular. The main traditional objective of higher education institutions has been to prepare domestic students with a given set of skills. Research competition and University's rankings, as well as the need to reach other publics, pushed them…

Associations among milk production and rectal temperature on pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, J L M; Cooke, R F; Jardina, D T G; Aragon, F L; Veras, M B; Soriano, S; Sobreira, N; Scarpa, A B

2011-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations among milk production, rectal temperature, and pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows. Data were collected during an 11-mo period from 463 Holstein cows (203 primiparous and 260 multiparous) assigned to a fixed-time embryo transfer (ET) protocol. Only cows detected with a visible corpus luteum immediately prior to ET were used. Rectal temperatures were collected from all cows on the same day of ET. Milk production at ET was calculated by averaging individual daily milk production during the 7d preceding ET. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed by transrectal ultrasonography 21d after ET. Cows were ranked and assigned to groups according to median milk production (median=35kg/d; HPROD=above median; LPROD=below median) and rectal temperature (≤39.0°C=LTEMP; >39.0°C=HTEMP). A milk production×temperature group interaction was detected (P=0.04) for pregnancy analysis because HTEMP cows ranked as LPROD were 3.1 time more likely to maintain pregnancy compared with HTEMP cows ranked as HPROD (P=0.03). Milk production did not affect (P=0.55) odds of pregnancy maintenance within LTEMP cows, however, and no differences in odds of pregnancy maintenance were detected between HTEMP and LTEMP within milk production groups (P>0.11). Within HTEMP cows, increased milk production decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LTEMP cows, increased milk production increased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly. Within HPROD, increased rectal temperature decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LPROD cows, no associations between rectal temperatures and probability of cows to maintain pregnancy were detected. In summary, high-producing dairy cows with rectal temperatures below 39.0°C did not experience reduced pregnancy maintenance to ET compared to cohorts with reduced milk production. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A needs assessment study of undergraduate surgical education

PubMed Central

Birch, Daniel W.; Mavis, Brian

2006-01-01

Background There is compelling evidence to suggest that undergraduate surgical education may fail to provide appropriate instruction in basic surgical principles and skills. Methods We completed a descriptive, cross-sectional survey of stakeholder groups (surgeon educators and recent medical school graduates) to assess the perceived relevance and learning for surgical principles, surgical skills, teaching environments and teaching interventions. Results Graduates returned 123 surveys, and surgeons returned 55 surveys (response rates: graduates 46%, surgeons 45%). Both graduates and surgeons considered 8 of 10 surgical principles highly relevant to current medical practice. Despite this, the surgical clerkship seemed to enable proficiency in far fewer principles (graduates: 3, surgeons: 5). Graduates believed that each of the 15 basic surgical skills is relevant to current medical practice, whereas surgeons indicated that more invasive skills (i.e., central venous lines, thoracentesis) are much less relevant. Graduates and surgeons indicated that medical students will achieve proficiency in only 3 basic skills areas as a result of the surgical clerkship. Graduates and surgeons considered each surgical specialty relevant and effective in undergraduate surgical education. According to graduates and surgeons, the most effective teaching environments are outpatient settings (emergency department, outpatient clinics). Graduates and surgeons ranked resident teaching as the most effective teaching intervention, and traditional interventions (grand rounds, formal rounds) and electronic resources (computer-assisted learning, web-based learning) were ranked the least effective. Conclusions In this study, we assessed the learning needs of contemporary medical students in surgery. The results suggest that respondent graduate students and surgeons believe that the level of proficiency achieved in surgical principles and basic skills through undergraduate surgical educations is much less than anticipated. Outpatient settings and resident teaching are believed to provide the most effective teaching for medical students. Information from this study has important implications for Canadian undergraduate surgery programs and curricula. PMID:17152571

Protein single-model quality assessment by feature-based probability density functions.

PubMed

Cao, Renzhi; Cheng, Jianlin

2016-04-04

Protein quality assessment (QA) has played an important role in protein structure prediction. We developed a novel single-model quality assessment method-Qprob. Qprob calculates the absolute error for each protein feature value against the true quality scores (i.e. GDT-TS scores) of protein structural models, and uses them to estimate its probability density distribution for quality assessment. Qprob has been blindly tested on the 11th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP11) as MULTICOM-NOVEL server. The official CASP result shows that Qprob ranks as one of the top single-model QA methods. In addition, Qprob makes contributions to our protein tertiary structure predictor MULTICOM, which is officially ranked 3rd out of 143 predictors. The good performance shows that Qprob is good at assessing the quality of models of hard targets. These results demonstrate that this new probability density distribution based method is effective for protein single-model quality assessment and is useful for protein structure prediction. The webserver of Qprob is available at: http://calla.rnet.missouri.edu/qprob/. The software is now freely available in the web server of Qprob.

Male dominance rank and reproductive success in chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii.

PubMed

Wroblewski, Emily E; Murray, Carson M; Keele, Brandon F; Schumacher-Stankey, Joann C; Hahn, Beatrice H; Pusey, Anne E

2009-01-01

Competition for fertile females determines male reproductive success in many species. The priority of access model predicts that male dominance rank determines access to females, but this model has been difficult to test in wild populations, particularly in promiscuous mating systems. Tests of the model have produced variable results, probably because of the differing socioecological circumstances of individual species and populations. We tested the predictions of the priority of access model in the chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Chimpanzees are an interesting species in which to test the model because of their fission-fusion grouping patterns, promiscuous mating system and alternative male mating strategies. We determined paternity for 34 offspring over a 22-year period and found that the priority of access model was generally predictive of male reproductive success. However, we found that younger males had higher success per male than older males, and low-ranking males sired more offspring than predicted. Low-ranking males sired offspring with younger, less desirable females and by engaging in consortships more often than high-ranking fathers. Although alpha males never sired offspring with related females, inbreeding avoidance of high-ranking male relatives did not completely explain the success of low-ranking males. While our work confirms that male rank typically predicts male chimpanzee reproductive success, other factors are also important; mate choice and alternative male strategies can give low-ranking males access to females more often than would be predicted by the model. Furthermore, the success of younger males suggests that they are more successful in sperm competition.

Validation of the CNS Penetration-Effectiveness Rank for Quantifying Antiretroviral Penetration Into the Central Nervous System

PubMed Central

Letendre, Scott; Marquie-Beck, Jennifer; Capparelli, Edmund; Best, Brookie; Clifford, David; Collier, Ann C.; Gelman, Benjamin B.; McArthur, Justin C.; McCutchan, J. Allen; Morgello, Susan; Simpson, David; Grant, Igor; Ellis, Ronald J.

2009-01-01

Objective To evaluate whether penetration of a combination regimen into the central nervous system (CNS), as estimated by the CNS Penetration-Effectiveness (CPE) rank, is associated with lower cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) viral load. Design Data were analyzed from 467 participants who were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositive and who reported antiretroviral (ARV) drug use. Individual ARV drugs were assigned a penetration rank of 0 (low), 0.5 (intermediate), or 1 (high) based on their chemical properties, concentrations in CSF, and/or effectiveness in the CNS in clinical studies. The CPE rank was calculated by summing the individual penetration ranks for each ARV in the regimen. Results The median CPE rank was 1.5 (interquartile range, 1–2). Lower CPE ranks correlated with higher CSF viral loads. Ranks less than 2 were associated with an 88% increase in the odds of detectable CSF viral load. In multivariate regression, lower CPE ranks were associated with detectable CSF viral loads even after adjusting for total number of ARV drugs, ARV drug adherence, plasma viral load, duration and type of the current regimen, and CD4 count. Conclusions Poorer penetration of ARV drugs into the CNS appears to allow continued HIV replication in the CNS as indicated by higher CSF HIV viral loads. Because inhibition of HIV replication in the CNS is probably critical in treating patients who have HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders, ARV treatment strategies that account for CNS penetration should be considered in consensus treatment guidelines and validated in clinical studies. PMID:18195140

Novel presentational approaches were developed for reporting network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tan, Sze Huey; Cooper, Nicola J; Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Welton, Nicky J; Caldwell, Deborah M; Sutton, Alexander J

2014-06-01

To present graphical tools for reporting network meta-analysis (NMA) results aiming to increase the accessibility, transparency, interpretability, and acceptability of NMA analyses. The key components of NMA results were identified based on recommendations by agencies such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (United Kingdom). Three novel graphs were designed to amalgamate the identified components using familiar graphical tools such as the bar, line, or pie charts and adhering to good graphical design principles. Three key components for presentation of NMA results were identified, namely relative effects and their uncertainty, probability of an intervention being best, and between-study heterogeneity. Two of the three graphs developed present results (for each pairwise comparison of interventions in the network) obtained from both NMA and standard pairwise meta-analysis for easy comparison. They also include options to display the probability best, ranking statistics, heterogeneity, and prediction intervals. The third graph presents rankings of interventions in terms of their effectiveness to enable clinicians to easily identify "top-ranking" interventions. The graphical tools presented can display results tailored to the research question of interest, and targeted at a whole spectrum of users from the technical analyst to the nontechnical clinician. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

Estimating the chance of success in IVF treatment using a ranking algorithm.

PubMed

Güvenir, H Altay; Misirli, Gizem; Dilbaz, Serdar; Ozdegirmenci, Ozlem; Demir, Berfu; Dilbaz, Berna

2015-09-01

In medicine, estimating the chance of success for treatment is important in deciding whether to begin the treatment or not. This paper focuses on the domain of in vitro fertilization (IVF), where estimating the outcome of a treatment is very crucial in the decision to proceed with treatment for both the clinicians and the infertile couples. IVF treatment is a stressful and costly process. It is very stressful for couples who want to have a baby. If an initial evaluation indicates a low pregnancy rate, decision of the couple may change not to start the IVF treatment. The aim of this study is twofold, firstly, to develop a technique that can be used to estimate the chance of success for a couple who wants to have a baby and secondly, to determine the attributes and their particular values affecting the outcome in IVF treatment. We propose a new technique, called success estimation using a ranking algorithm (SERA), for estimating the success of a treatment using a ranking-based algorithm. The particular ranking algorithm used here is RIMARC. The performance of the new algorithm is compared with two well-known algorithms that assign class probabilities to query instances. The algorithms used in the comparison are Naïve Bayes Classifier and Random Forest. The comparison is done in terms of area under the ROC curve, accuracy and execution time, using tenfold stratified cross-validation. The results indicate that the proposed SERA algorithm has a potential to be used successfully to estimate the probability of success in medical treatment.

Retrospective validation of renewal-based, medium-term earthquake forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotondi, R.

2013-10-01

In this paper, some methods for scoring the performances of an earthquake forecasting probability model are applied retrospectively for different goals. The time-dependent occurrence probabilities of a renewal process are tested against earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.3 recorded in Italy according to decades of the past century. An aim was to check the capability of the model to reproduce the data by which the model was calibrated. The scoring procedures used can be distinguished on the basis of the requirement (or absence) of a reference model and of probability thresholds. Overall, a rank-based score, information gain, gambling scores, indices used in binary predictions and their loss functions are considered. The definition of various probability thresholds as percentages of the hazard functions allows proposals of the values associated with the best forecasting performance as alarm level in procedures for seismic risk mitigation. Some improvements are then made to the input data concerning the completeness of the historical catalogue and the consistency of the composite seismogenic sources with the hypotheses of the probability model. Another purpose of this study was thus to obtain hints on what is the most influential factor and on the suitability of adopting the consequent changes of the data sets. This is achieved by repeating the estimation procedure of the occurrence probabilities and the retrospective validation of the forecasts obtained under the new assumptions. According to the rank-based score, the completeness appears to be the most influential factor, while there are no clear indications of the usefulness of the decomposition of some composite sources, although in some cases, it has led to improvements of the forecast.

Predicting presidential performance in the United States: equation replication on recent survey results.

PubMed

Simonton, D K

2001-06-01

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. McIver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.

Anthropometric characteristics and motor skills in talent selection and development in indoor soccer.

PubMed

Ré, Alessandro H Nicolai; Corrêa, Umberto César; Böhme, Maria Tereza S

2010-06-01

Kick performance, anthropometric characteristics, slalom, and linear running were assessed in 49 (24 elite, 25 nonelite) postpubertal indoor soccer players in order to (a) verify whether anthropometric characteristics and physical and technical capacities can distinguish players of different competitive levels, (b) compare the kicking kinematics of these groups, with and without a defined target, and (c) compare results on the assessments and coaches' subjective rankings of the players. Thigh circumference and specific technical capacities differentiated the players by level of play; cluster analysis correctly classified 77.5% of the players. The correlation between players' standardized measures and the coaches' rankings was 0.29. Anthropometric characteristics and physical capacities do not necessarily differentiate players at post-pubertal stages and should not be overvalued during early development. Considering the coaches' rankings, performance measures outside the specific game conditions may not be useful in identification of talented players.

Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

OConnor, A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Harrison, S.; Gorman, J.

2016-02-01

Current US Navy forecasting systems cannot easily incorporate extended-range forecasts that can improve mission readiness and effectiveness; ensure safety; and reduce cost, labor, and resource requirements. If Navy operational planners had systems that incorporated these forecasts, they could plan missions using more reliable and longer-term weather and climate predictions. Further, using multi-model forecast ensembles instead of single forecasts would produce higher predictive performance. Extended-range multi-model forecast ensembles, such as those available in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), are ideal for system integration because of their high skill predictions; however, even higher skill predictions can be produced if forecast model ensembles are combined correctly. While many methods for weighting models exist, the best method in a given environment requires expert knowledge of the models and combination methods.We present an innovative approach that uses machine learning to combine extended-range predictions from multi-model forecast ensembles and generate a probabilistic forecast for any region of the globe up to 12 months in advance. Our machine-learning approach uses 30 years of hindcast predictions to learn patterns of forecast model successes and failures. Each model is assigned a weight for each environmental condition, 100 km2 region, and day given any expected environmental information. These weights are then applied to the respective predictions for the region and time of interest to effectively stitch together a single, coherent probabilistic forecast. Our experimental results demonstrate the benefits of our approach to produce extended-range probabilistic forecasts for regions and time periods of interest that are superior, in terms of skill, to individual NMME forecast models and commonly weighted models. The probabilistic forecast leverages the strengths of three NMME forecast models to predict environmental conditions for an area spanning from San Diego, CA to Honolulu, HI, seven months in-advance. Key findings include: weighted combinations of models are strictly better than individual models; machine-learned combinations are especially better; and forecasts produced using our approach have the highest rank probability skill score most often.

A coupled human-natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-09-01

Recent advances in weather and climate (W&C) services are showing increasing forecast skills over seasonal and longer timescales, potentially providing valuable support in informing decisions in a variety of economic sectors. Quantifying this value, however, might not be straightforward as better forecast quality does not necessarily imply better decisions by the end users, especially when forecasts do not reach their final users, when providers are not trusted, or when forecasts are not appropriately understood. In this study, we contribute an assessment framework to evaluate the operational value of W&C services for informing agricultural practices by complementing traditional forecast quality assessments with a coupled human-natural system behavioural model which reproduces farmers' decisions. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioural factors. The application to an agricultural area in northern Italy shows that the quality of state-of-the-art W&C services is still limited in predicting the weather and the crop yield of the incoming agricultural season, with ECMWF annual products simulated by the IFS/HOPE model resulting in the most skillful product in the study area. However, we also show that the accuracy of estimating crop yield and the probability of making optimal decisions are not necessarily linearly correlated, with the overall assessment procedure being strongly impacted by the behavioural attitudes of farmers, which can produce rank reversals in the quantification of the W&C services operational value depending on the different perceptions of risk and uncertainty.

A Data-Based Approach to Discovering Multi-Topic Influential Leaders.

PubMed

Tang, Xing; Miao, Qiguang; Yu, Shangshang; Quan, Yining

2016-01-01

Recently, increasing numbers of users have adopted microblogging services as their main information source. However, most of them find themselves drowning in the millions of posts produced by other users every day. To cope with this, identifying a set of the most influential people is paramount. Moreover, finding a set of related influential users to expand the coverage of one particular topic is required in real world scenarios. Most of the existing algorithms in this area focus on topology-related methods such as PageRank. These methods mine link structures to find the expected influential rank of users. However, because they ignore the interaction data, these methods turn out to be less effective in social networks. In reality, a variety of topics exist within the information diffusing through the network. Because they have different interests, users play different roles in the diffusion of information related to different topics. As a result, distinguishing influential leaders according to different topics is also worthy of research. In this paper, we propose a multi-topic influence diffusion model (MTID) based on traces acquired from historic information. We decompose the influential scores of users into two parts: the direct influence determined by information propagation along the link structure and indirect influence that extends beyond the restrictions of direct follower relationships. To model the network from a multi-topical viewpoint, we introduce topic pools, each of which represents a particular topic information source. Then, we extract the topic distributions from the traces of tweets, determining the influence propagation probability and content generation probability. In the network, we adopt multiple ground nodes representing topic pools to connect every user through bidirectional links. Based on this multi-topical view of the network, we further introduce the topic-dependent rank (TD-Rank) algorithm to identify the multi-topic influential users. Our algorithm not only effectively overcomes the shortages of PageRank but also effectively produces a measure of topic-related rank. Extensive experiments on a Weibo dataset show that our model is both effective and robust.

A Data-Based Approach to Discovering Multi-Topic Influential Leaders

PubMed Central

Tang, Xing; Miao, Qiguang; Yu, Shangshang; Quan, Yining

2016-01-01

Recently, increasing numbers of users have adopted microblogging services as their main information source. However, most of them find themselves drowning in the millions of posts produced by other users every day. To cope with this, identifying a set of the most influential people is paramount. Moreover, finding a set of related influential users to expand the coverage of one particular topic is required in real world scenarios. Most of the existing algorithms in this area focus on topology-related methods such as PageRank. These methods mine link structures to find the expected influential rank of users. However, because they ignore the interaction data, these methods turn out to be less effective in social networks. In reality, a variety of topics exist within the information diffusing through the network. Because they have different interests, users play different roles in the diffusion of information related to different topics. As a result, distinguishing influential leaders according to different topics is also worthy of research. In this paper, we propose a multi-topic influence diffusion model (MTID) based on traces acquired from historic information. We decompose the influential scores of users into two parts: the direct influence determined by information propagation along the link structure and indirect influence that extends beyond the restrictions of direct follower relationships. To model the network from a multi-topical viewpoint, we introduce topic pools, each of which represents a particular topic information source. Then, we extract the topic distributions from the traces of tweets, determining the influence propagation probability and content generation probability. In the network, we adopt multiple ground nodes representing topic pools to connect every user through bidirectional links. Based on this multi-topical view of the network, we further introduce the topic-dependent rank (TD-Rank) algorithm to identify the multi-topic influential users. Our algorithm not only effectively overcomes the shortages of PageRank but also effectively produces a measure of topic-related rank. Extensive experiments on a Weibo dataset show that our model is both effective and robust. PMID:27415429

A portrait of Aristotle as an anatomist: historical article.

PubMed

Crivellato, Enrico; Ribatti, Domenico

2007-07-01

Aristotle is principally known as a theoretical philosopher and logician but he was also an eminent natural scientist. In particular, he should be considered probably the first anatomist in the modern sense of this term and the originator of anatomy as a special branch of knowledge. Although it seems certain that he did not perform dissections of human adult cadavers, he examined human fetal material and, above all, made systematic analysis of animal bodies. His contribution to comparative anatomy, as well as to human anatomy, was enormous. He founded the anatomical discipline on precise descriptive and scientific ground. He also coined a series of technical terms, which are still in use in the modern nomenclature. His observational skill was astounding. Although many of his physiological concepts turned out to be wrong, still his structural description of organs and body parts was often first-rank. The present study will chiefly focus on Aristotle's anatomical work and will provide only essential mention of his complex physiological and philosophical doctrine. The main purpose of this article is indeed to offer to today's anatomists a systematic account of the extraordinary achievements of this great pioneer of our discipline. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Skier triggering of backcountry avalanches with skilled route selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinickas, Alexandra; Haegeli, Pascal; Jamieson, Bruce

2015-04-01

Jamieson (2009) provided numerical estimates for the baseline probabilities of triggering an avalanche by a backcountry skier making fresh tracks without skilled route selection as a function of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e., hazard levels Low, Moderate, Considerable, High and Extreme). Using the results of an expert survey, he showed that triggering probabilities while skiing directly up, down or across a trigger zone without skilled route selection increase roughly by a factor of 10 with each step of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e. hazard level). The objective of the present study is to examine the effect of skilled route selection on the relationship between triggering probability and hazard level. To assess the effect of skilled route selection on triggering probability by hazard level, we analysed avalanche hazard assessments as well as reports of skiing activity and triggering of avalanches from 11 Canadian helicopter and snowcat operations during two winters (2012-13 and 2013-14). These reports were submitted to the daily information exchange among Canadian avalanche safety operations, and reflect professional decision-making and route selection practices of guides leading groups of skiers. We selected all skier-controlled or accidentally triggered avalanches with a destructive size greater than size 1 according to the Canadian avalanche size classification, triggered by any member of a guided group (guide or guest). These operations forecast the avalanche hazard daily for each of three elevation bands: alpine, treeline and below treeline. In contrast to the 2009 study, an exposure was defined as a group skiing within any one of the three elevation bands, and consequently within a hazard rating, for the day (~4,300 ratings over two winters). For example, a group that skied below treeline (rated Moderate) and treeline (rated Considerable) in one day, would receive one count for exposure to Moderate hazard, and one count for exposure to Considerable hazard. While the absolute values for triggering probability cannot be compared to the 2009 study because of different definitions of exposure, our preliminary results suggest that with skilled route selection the triggering probability is similar all hazard levels, except for extreme for which there are few exposures. This means that the guiding teams of backcountry skiing operations effectively control the hazard from triggering avalanches with skilled route selection. Groups were exposed relatively evenly to Low hazard (1275 times or 29% of total exposure), Moderate hazard (1450 times or 33 %) and Considerable hazard (1215 times or 28 %). At higher levels, the exposure reduced to roughly 380 times (9 % of total exposure) to High hazard, and only 13 times (0.3 %) to Extreme hazard. We assess the sensitivity of the results to some of our key assumptions.

The assessment of knowledge and learning in competence spaces: The gain-loss model for dependent skills.

PubMed

Anselmi, Pasquale; Stefanutti, Luca; de Chiusole, Debora; Robusto, Egidio

2017-11-01

The gain-loss model (GaLoM) is a formal model for assessing knowledge and learning. In its original formulation, the GaLoM assumes independence among the skills. Such an assumption is not reasonable in several domains, in which some preliminary knowledge is the foundation for other knowledge. This paper presents an extension of the GaLoM to the case in which the skills are not independent, and the dependence relation among them is described by a well-graded competence space. The probability of mastering skill s at the pretest is conditional on the presence of all skills on which s depends. The probabilities of gaining or losing skill s when moving from pretest to posttest are conditional on the mastery of s at the pretest, and on the presence at the posttest of all skills on which s depends. Two formulations of the model are presented, in which the learning path is allowed to change from pretest to posttest or not. A simulation study shows that models based on the true competence space obtain a better fit than models based on false competence spaces, and are also characterized by a higher assessment accuracy. An empirical application shows that models based on pedagogically sound assumptions about the dependencies among the skills obtain a better fit than models assuming independence among the skills. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Motives of 21st-Century-Skills Group Questioned

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawchuk, Stephen

2009-01-01

Depending on whom one asks, "21st-century skills" can mean different things: technology literacy, the ability to analyze and apply knowledge, a knack for working effectively with colleagues in teams. In what is probably its most visible form for educators, though, the term refers to the work of the Partnership for 21st Century Skills, the Tucson,…

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Treesearch

Paul G. Scowcroft

1970-01-01

Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For...

Rank-k Maximal Statistics for Divergence and Probability of Misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decell, H. P., Jr.

1972-01-01

A technique is developed for selecting from n-channel multispectral data some k combinations of the n-channels upon which to base a given classification technique so that some measure of the loss of the ability to distinguish between classes, using the compressed k-dimensional data, is minimized. Information loss in compressing the n-channel data to k channels is taken to be the difference in the average interclass divergences (or probability of misclassification) in n-space and in k-space.

Computers and Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lacina, Jan

2007-01-01

Technology is a way of life for most Americans. A recent study published by the National Writing Project (2007) found that Americans believe that computers have a positive effect on writing skills. The importance of learning to use technology ranked just below learning to read and write, and 74 percent of the survey respondents noted that children…

Common Elements of Capstone Projects in the World's Top-Ranked Engineering Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ward, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

"Capstone" is a metaphor used to describe a final achievement that builds upon previous works and encapsulates them. Capstone projects are included in engineering curricula to integrate multi-disciplinary subjects and teach professional skills that are difficult to impart in a traditional lectured course. Since these projects serve to…

A Criterion-Referenced Examination of Physician Competence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norcini, John J.; And Others

1988-01-01

A test of skill in reading electrocardiographs (ECGs) was developed as a physician competence (PC) test. The criterion-referenced test ranked 1,825 persons taking the 1983 Certifying Examination in Cardiovascular Diseases (CECD) as expected on the basis of prior education and examination scores on the CECD. The ECG test modestly correlated with…

A Dominance Analysis Approach to Determining Predictor Importance in Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Reading Comprehension Skills

PubMed Central

Tighe, Elizabeth; Schatschneider, Christopher

2015-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate and rank order by importance the contributions of various cognitive predictors to reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth graders. An exploratory factor analysis revealed that for third grade, the best fit was a four-factor solution including Fluency, Verbal Reasoning, Nonverbal Reasoning, and Working Memory factors. For seventh and tenth grade, three-factor solutions with Fluency, Reasoning, and Working Memory factors were the best fit. The three and four-factor models were used in separate dominance analyses for each grade to rank order the factors by predictive importance to reading comprehension. Results indicated that Fluency and Verbal Reasoning were the most important predictors of third grade reading comprehension. For seventh grade, Fluency and Reasoning were the most important predictors. By tenth grade, Reasoning was the most important predictor of reading comprehension. Working Memory was the least predictive of reading comprehension across all grade levels. These results suggest that inferential reasoning skills become an important contributor to reading comprehension at increasing grade levels. PMID:26346315

Applications of fuzzy ranking methods to risk-management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Harold A.; Carter, James C., III

1993-12-01

The Department of Energy is making significant improvements to its nuclear facilities as a result of more stringent regulation, internal audits, and recommendations from external review groups. A large backlog of upgrades has resulted. Currently, a prioritization method is being utilized which relies on a matrix of potential consequence and probability of occurrence. The attributes of the potential consequences considered include likelihood, exposure, public health and safety, environmental impact, site personnel safety, public relations, legal liability, and business loss. This paper describes an improved method which utilizes fuzzy multiple attribute decision methods to rank proposed improvement projects.

Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2014-05-01

Forecast calibration or post-processing has become a standard tool in atmospheric and climatological science due to the presence of systematic initial condition and model errors. For ensemble forecasts the most competitive methods derive from the assumption of a fixed ensemble distribution. However, when independently applying such 'statistical' methods at different locations, lead times or for multiple variables the correlation structure for individual ensemble members is destroyed. Instead of reastablishing the correlation structure as in Schefzik et al. (2013) we instead propose a calibration method that avoids such problem by correcting each ensemble member individually. Moreover, we analyse the fundamental mechanisms by which the probabilistic ensemble skill can be enhanced. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, our member-by-member approach amounts to skill gain that extends for lead times far beyond the error doubling time and which is as good as the one of the most competitive statistical approach, non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (Gneiting et al. 2005). Besides the conservation of correlation structure, additional benefits arise including the fact that higher-order ensemble moments like kurtosis and skewness are inherited from the uncorrected forecasts. Our detailed analysis is performed in the context of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and different simple models but the results extent succesfully to the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2013, 2014) . References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Schefzik, R., T.L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting, 2013: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling. To appear in Statistical Science 28. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2013: Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, p. 347-352. [4] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2014: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects, under review.

Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; Wood, Eric F.; Sheffield, Justin; Beck, Hylke E.

2013-05-01

Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1° resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km2) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions.

Relationships among video gaming proficiency and spatial orientation, laparoscopic, and traditional surgical skills of third-year veterinary students.

PubMed

Millard, Heather A Towle; Millard, Ralph P; Constable, Peter D; Freeman, Lyn J

2014-02-01

To determine the relationships among traditional and laparoscopic surgical skills, spatial analysis skills, and video gaming proficiency of third-year veterinary students. Prospective, randomized, controlled study. A convenience sample of 29 third-year veterinary students. The students had completed basic surgical skills training with inanimate objects but had no experience with soft tissue, orthopedic, or laparoscopic surgery; the spatial analysis test; or the video games that were used in the study. Scores for traditional surgical, laparoscopic, spatial analysis, and video gaming skills were determined, and associations among these were analyzed by means of Spearman's rank order correlation coefficient (rs). A significant positive association (rs = 0.40) was detected between summary scores for video game performance and laparoscopic skills, but not between video game performance and traditional surgical skills scores. Spatial analysis scores were positively (rs = 0.30) associated with video game performance scores; however, that result was not significant. Spatial analysis scores were not significantly associated with laparoscopic surgical skills scores. Traditional surgical skills scores were not significantly associated with laparoscopic skills or spatial analysis scores. Results of this study indicated video game performance of third-year veterinary students was predictive of laparoscopic but not traditional surgical skills, suggesting that laparoscopic performance may be improved with video gaming experience. Additional studies would be required to identify methods for improvement of traditional surgical skills.

CDTI: Crew Function Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tole, J. R.; Young, L. R.

1982-01-01

Man machine interaction often requires the operator to perform a sterotyped scan of instruments to monitor and/or control a system. Situations in which this type of behavior exists, such as instrument flight, scan pattern has been shown to be altered by imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. The relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload was described. A verbal loading task of varying difficulty caused pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increased and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task affected rank ordering of scanning sequences. The behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. Graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modeling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Effects of a work-based critical reflection program for novice nurses.

PubMed

Kim, Yeon Hee; Min, Ja; Kim, Soon Hee; Shin, Sujin

2018-02-27

Critical reflection is effective in improving students' communication abilities and confidence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a work-based critical reflection program to enhance novice nurses' clinical critical-thinking abilities, communication competency, and job performance. The present study used a quasi-experimental design. From October 2014 to August 2015, we collected data from 44 novice nurses working in an advanced general hospital in S city in Korea. Nurses in the experimental group participated in a critical reflection program for six months. Outcome variables were clinical critical-thinking skills, communication abilities, and job performance. A non-parametric Mann-Whitney U-test and a Wilcoxon rank sum test were selected to evaluate differences in mean ranks and to assess the null hypothesis that the medians were equal across the groups. The results showed that the clinical critical-thinking skills of those in the experimental group improved significantly (p = 0.003). The differences in mean ranks of communication ability between two groups was significantly statistically different (p = 0.028). Job performance improved significantly in both the experimental group and the control group, so there was no statistical difference (p = 0.294). We therefore suggest that a critical reflection program be considered an essential tool for improving critical thinking and communication abilities among novice nurses who need to adapt to the clinical environment as quickly as possible. Further, we suggest conducting research into critical reflection programs among larger and more diverse samples.

The effect of general surgery clerkship rotation on the attitude of medical students towards general surgery as a future career.

PubMed

Al-Heeti, Khalaf N M; Nassar, Aussama K; Decorby, Kara; Winch, Joanne; Reid, Susan

2012-01-01

Literature suggests declining interest in General Surgery (GS) and other surgical specialties, with fewer Canadian medical residency applicants identifying a surgical specialty as their first choice. Although perceptions of surgical careers may begin before enrollment in clerkship, clerkship itself provides the most concentrated environment for perceptions to evolve. Most students develop perceptions about specialties during their clinical clerkships. This study examines the immediate impact of GS clerkship on student attitudes toward GS as a career, and on preferences towards GS compared with other specialties. A pre-post design involved 61 McMaster clinical clerks. Two instruments were used to collect data from students over the course of clerkship (2008-2009). Paired comparison (PC) compared ranking of career choices before and after clerkship. Semantic differential (SD) measured attitudes toward GS and variables that may have affected attitudes before and after clerkship. Analyses used SPSS 16.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL). Clerks ranked preferences for GS changed substantially after clerkship, moving from the 10th to the 5th position compared with other specialties. Ranks of surgical subspecialties also changed, though GS demonstrated the largest improvement. SD results were consistent with PC, showing improved attitudes after rotation, with differences both statistically and practically significant (t = 3.81, p < 0.000, effect size = 0.23). Results indicated that attitudes toward all areas related to GS clerkship (attending physicians, surgical residents, ward nurses, scrub nurses, workload, knowledge achieved, technical skills acquired) improved significantly except attitude toward technical skills acquired. Clinical clerkship at McMaster was a positive experience and significantly enhanced preferences towards GS and attitudes towards GS as a career. Medical schools should foster positive interaction between clinical clerks and staff (including attending surgeons and nurses), ensure that teaching hospital staff provide a positive experience for clerks, and should provide opportunities to learn basic technical skills during GS clerkship. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-Reported Measures Of Strength And Sport-Specific Skills Distinguish Ranking In An International Online Fitness Competition.

PubMed

Serafini, Paul R; Feito, Yuri; Mangine, Gerald T

2017-02-08

To determine if self-reported performance measures could distinguish ranking during the 2016 CrossFit Open, data from three thousand male (n=1500; 27.2±8.4 y; 85.2±7.9 kg; 177.0±6.5 cm) and female (n=1500, 28.7±4.9 y; 63.7±5.8 kg; 163.7±6.6 cm) competitors was used for this study. Competitors were split by gender and grouped into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based upon their final ranking. Quintiles were compared for one-repetition maximum (1RM) squat, deadlift, clean and jerk (CJ), snatch, 400-m sprint, 5,000-m run, and benchmark workouts (Fran, Helen, Grace, Filthy-50, and Fight-gone-bad). Separate one-way analyses of variance revealed all competitors in Q1 reported greater (p<0.05) 1RM loads for squat (Males: 201.6±19.1 kg; Females: 126.1±13.0 kg), deadlift (Males: 232.4±20.5 kg; Females: 148.3±14.5 kg), CJ (Males: 148.9±12.1 kg; Females: 95.7±8.4 kg), and snatch (Males: 119.4±10.9 kg; Females 76.5±7.6 kg) compared to other quintiles. In addition, Males in Q1 (59.3±5.9 sec) reported faster (p<0.05) 400-m times than Q3 only (62.6±7.3 sec), but were not different from any group in the 5,000-m run. Females in Q2 (67.5 ± 8.8 sec) reported faster (p<0.05) 400-m times than Q3-Q5 (73.5-74.8 sec) and faster (21.3 ± 1.8 min, p<0.02) 5,000-m times than Q4 (22.6±2.2 min) and Q5 (22.6±1.9 min). Faster (p<0.05) Fran times were reported by Q1 (males: 138.2±13.3 sec; females: 159.4±28.3 sec) compared to other groups, while the results of other workouts were variable. These data indicate that the most successful athletes excel in all areas of fitness/skill, while lower-ranking athletes should focus on developing strength and power after achieving sufficient proficiency in sport-specific skills.

Science Curriculum Components Favored by Taiwanese Biology Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chen-Yung; Hu, Reping; Changlai, Miao-Li

2005-09-01

The new 1-9 curriculum framework in Taiwan provides a remarkable change from previous frameworks in terms of the coverage of content and the powers of teachers. This study employs a modified repertory grid technique to investigate biology teachers' preferences with regard to six curriculum components. One hundred and eighty-five in-service and pre-service biology teachers were asked to determine which science curriculum components they liked and disliked most of all to include in their biology classes. The data show that the rank order of these science curriculum components, from top to bottom, was as follows: application of science, manipulation skills, scientific concepts, social/ethical issues, problem-solving skills, and the history of science. They also showed that pre-service biology teachers, as compared with in-service biology teachers, favored problem-solving skills significantly more than manipulative skills, while in-service biology teachers, as compared with pre-service biology teachers, favored manipulative skills significantly more than problem-solving skills. Some recommendations for ensuring the successful implementation of the Taiwanese 1-9 curriculum framework are also proposed.

Gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar.

PubMed

Aye, Thanda; Oo, Khin Saw; Khin, Myo Thuzar; Kuramoto-Ahuja, Tsugumi; Maruyama, Hitoshi

2017-10-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar. [Subjects and Methods] Total 472 healthy Kindergarten children (237 males, 235 females) of 2016-2017 academic year from four schools in urban area and four schools in rural area of Myanmar were recruited. The gross motor skill development of all subjects was assessed with the test of gross motor development second edition (TGMD-2). All subjects performed two trials for each gross motor skill and the performance was video recorded and scored. The assessment procedures were done according to the standardized guidelines of TGMD-2. [Results] The majority of subjects had average level of gross motor skill rank. The significant differences were found on the run and gallop of locomotor skills and the most of object control skills except the catch between males and females. The significant differences were also found between subjects from urban and rural areas. [Conclusion] Gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar had gender-based and region-based differences on both locomotor and object control skills. This study added a valuable information to the establishment of a normative reference of Kindergarten aged children for future studies.

Gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar

PubMed Central

Aye, Thanda; Oo, Khin Saw; Khin, Myo Thuzar; Kuramoto-Ahuja, Tsugumi; Maruyama, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar. [Subjects and Methods] Total 472 healthy Kindergarten children (237 males, 235 females) of 2016–2017 academic year from four schools in urban area and four schools in rural area of Myanmar were recruited. The gross motor skill development of all subjects was assessed with the test of gross motor development second edition (TGMD-2). All subjects performed two trials for each gross motor skill and the performance was video recorded and scored. The assessment procedures were done according to the standardized guidelines of TGMD-2. [Results] The majority of subjects had average level of gross motor skill rank. The significant differences were found on the run and gallop of locomotor skills and the most of object control skills except the catch between males and females. The significant differences were also found between subjects from urban and rural areas. [Conclusion] Gross motor skill development of 5-year-old Kindergarten children in Myanmar had gender-based and region-based differences on both locomotor and object control skills. This study added a valuable information to the establishment of a normative reference of Kindergarten aged children for future studies. PMID:29184287

Moving the needle: a retrospective pre- and post-analysis of improving perceived abilities across 20 leadership skills.

PubMed

Fernandez, Claudia S P; Noble, Cheryl C; Jensen, Elizabeth; Steffen, David

2015-02-01

To assess the influence of intensive focused leadership training on self-evaluation of leadership skills among Maternal and Child Health (MCH) professionals enrolled in the Maternal and Child Health Public Health Leadership Institute (MCH PHLI). Senior-level MCH leaders (n = 54) participated in the first two cohorts of the MCH PHLI, a senior-level training program funded through the Maternal and Child Health Bureau. Participants were asked to complete a retrospective pre- and post-test rating inventory at program completion. Participants self-identified their skill level across 20 leadership skills that were the focus of the training program. These skills were derived from the MCH Leadership Competencies, 3.0 and literature reviews, and then divided into two domains: Core leadership skills and Organizational/Institutional leadership skills. Data were analyzed to determine whether participants perceived skill level increased by the end of their training year. A one-sided (upper) paired T Test and a Wilcoxen Signed Rank Sum Test were used to determine statistical significance. Increases in perceived skill levels were found to be statistically significant at the alpha = .01 level for all 20 target skills. The MCH PHLI model of intensive leadership development, incorporating a hybrid approach of onsite and distance-based learning, was broadly effective in building targeted leadership skills as perceived by participants.

The Power of Probability: Poster/Teaching Guide for Grades 6-8. Expect the Unexpected with Math[R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Actuarial Foundation, 2013

2013-01-01

"The Power of Probability" is a new math program aligned with the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) and Common Core State Standards, which gives students opportunities to practice their skills and knowledge of the mathematics of probability. Developed by The Actuarial Foundation, the program's lessons and worksheets motivate…

The Relative Severity of Single Hazards within a Multi-Hazard Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2013-04-01

Here we present a description of the relative severity of single hazards within a multi-hazard framework, compiled through examining, quantifying and ranking the extent to which individual hazards trigger or increase the probability of other hazards. Hazards are broken up into six major groupings (geophysical, hydrological, shallow earth processes, atmospheric, biophysical and space), with the interactions for 21 different hazard types examined. These interactions include both one primary hazard triggering a secondary hazard, and one primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring. We identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, >90 interactions. The number of hazard-type linkages are then summed for each hazard in terms of their influence (the number of times one hazard type triggers another type of hazard, or itself) and their sensitivity (the number of times one hazard type is triggered by other hazard types, or itself). The 21 different hazards are then ranked based on (i) influence and (ii) sensitivity. We found, by quantification and ranking of these hazards, that: (i) The strongest influencers (those triggering the most secondary hazards) are volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and storms, which when taken together trigger almost a third of the possible hazard interactions identified; (ii) The most sensitive hazards (those being triggered by the most primary hazards) are identified to be landslides, volcanic eruptions and floods; (iii) When sensitivity rankings are adjusted to take into account the differential likelihoods of different secondary hazards being triggered, the most sensitive hazards are found to be landslides, floods, earthquakes and ground heave. We believe that by determining the strongest influencing and the most sensitive hazards for specific spatial areas, the allocation of resources for mitigation measures might be done more effectively.

H-index of Collective Health professors in Brazil.

PubMed

Pereira, Julio Cesar Rodrigues; Bronhara, Bruna

2011-06-01

To estimate reference values and the hierarchy function of professors engaged in Collective Health in Brazil by analyzing the distribution of the h-index. From the Portal da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Portal of Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel ), 934 authors were identified in 2008, of whom 819 were analyzed. The h-index of each professor was obtained through the Web of Science using search algorithms controlling for namesakes and alternative spellings of their names. For each Brazilian region and for the country as a whole, we adjusted an exponential probability density function to provide the population parameters and rate of decline by region. Ranking measures were identified using the complement of the cumulative probability function and the hierarchy function among authors according to the h-index by region. Among the professors analyzed, 29.8% had no citation record in Web of Science (h=0). The mean h for the country was 3.1, and the region with greatest mean was the southern region (h=4.7). The median h for the country was 3.1, and the greatest median was for the southern region (3.2). Standardizing populations to one hundred, the first rank in the country was h=16, but stratification by region shows that, within the northeastern, southeastern and southern regions, a greater value is necessary for achieving the first rank. In the southern region, the index needed to achieve the first rank was h=24. Most of the Brazilian Collective Health authors, if assessed on the basis of the Web of Science h-index, did not exceed h=5. Regional differences exist, with the southeastern and northeastern regions being similar and the southern region being outstanding.

The Singular, The Plural, and the Numberless.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilsdorf, Jeanette

1986-01-01

Outlines major publishing houses' solutions to the common-gender singular pronoun problem. Maintains that the American English-speaking world employs different standards for speaking and writing, even in educated ranks. Argues that changing spoken language is probably hopeless. Proposes seven tactics through which to counter written grammar and…

Document Ranking Based upon Markov Chains.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danilowicz, Czeslaw; Balinski, Jaroslaw

2001-01-01

Considers how the order of documents in information retrieval responses are determined and introduces a method that uses a probabilistic model of a document set where documents are regarded as states of a Markov chain and where transition probabilities are directly proportional to similarities between documents. (Author/LRW)

[A method for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria in the municipalities of Colombia].

PubMed

Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez

2010-03-01

To develop a methodology for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia. Epidemiologic ranges were defined by multiples of 50 cases for the six municipalities with the highest incidence, 25 cases for the municipalities that ranked 10th and 11th by incidence, 10 for the municipality that ranked 193rd, and 5 for the municipality that ranked 402nd. The specific probability values for each epidemiologic range appearing in each municipality, as well as the S/k value--the ratio between entropy (S) and the Boltzmann constant (k)--were calculated for each three-week set, along with the differences in this ratio divided by the consecutive sets of weeks. These mathematical ratios were used to determine the values for forecasting the case dynamic, which were compared with the actual epidemiologic data from the period 2003-2007. The probability of the epidemiologic ranges appearing ranged from 0.019 and 1.00, while the differences in the S/k ratio between the sets of consecutive weeks ranged from 0.23 to 0.29. Three ratios were established to determine whether the dynamic corresponded to an outbreak. These ratios were corroborated with real epidemiological data from 810 Colombian municipalities. This methodology allows us to forecast the malaria case dynamic and outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia and can be used in planning interventions and public health policies.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Delivery of Lung Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perks, Julian R., E-mail: julian.perks@ucdmc.ucdavis.edu; Stanic, Sinisa; Stern, Robin L.

2012-07-15

Purpose: To improve the quality and safety of our practice of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), we analyzed the process following the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method. Methods: The FMEA was performed by a multidisciplinary team. For each step in the SBRT delivery process, a potential failure occurrence was derived and three factors were assessed: the probability of each occurrence, the severity if the event occurs, and the probability of detection by the treatment team. A rank of 1 to 10 was assigned to each factor, and then the multiplied ranks yielded the relative risks (risk priority numbers).more » The failure modes with the highest risk priority numbers were then considered to implement process improvement measures. Results: A total of 28 occurrences were derived, of which nine events scored with significantly high risk priority numbers. The risk priority numbers of the highest ranked events ranged from 20 to 80. These included transcription errors of the stereotactic coordinates and machine failures. Conclusion: Several areas of our SBRT delivery were reconsidered in terms of process improvement, and safety measures, including treatment checklists and a surgical time-out, were added for our practice of gantry-based image-guided SBRT. This study serves as a guide for other users of SBRT to perform FMEA of their own practice.« less

Bridging the Gender Gap: The demographics of scientists in the USDA Forest Service and academia

Treesearch

Christel C. Kern; Laura S. Kenefic; Susan L. Stout

2015-01-01

Past research has established that diverse scientific communities foster innovation and problem solving more effectively than communities with a narrow range of knowledge, skills, and experience. However, gender diversity among scientists is limited, particularly in natural-resource fields. We compared data on scientist gender and rank from the US Department of...

STEM Is Here. Now What?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Amanda

2013-01-01

What is the secret to success in the 21st Century? According to the New Commission on the Skills of the American Workforce (2008), the standard of living for the middle-class American is no longer guaranteed with only a secondary education degree and a strong work ethic. Due to increased global competition, America needs to rank in the top two…

Getting Veterans Back to Work. Washington's Community and Technical Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington State Board for Community and Technical Colleges, 2015

2015-01-01

Each year about 13,000 military personnel leave the service and select Washington state as their home, bringing with them a wealth of experience and a wide range of skills. Washington ranks among the top five most popular states for military personnel separating from the service. Washington's 34 community and technical colleges are a perfect fit…

Knowledge and Intentions of Ninth-Grade Girls after a Breast Self-Examination Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogletree, Roberta J.; Hammig, Bart; Drolet, Judy C.; Birch, David A.

2004-01-01

Breast cancer ranks as the second-leading cause of death for women. Until recently the American Cancer Society advocated teaching breast self-examination (BSE) procedures. The Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation, active in the fight against breast cancer, continues to support educational efforts to teach breast self-examination skills to…

The design and implementation of a conservation corps program in Nuristan, Afghanistan

Treesearch

Danny Markus; John W. Groninger

2011-01-01

Nuristan ranks among the least prosperous and educated provinces of Afghanistan. In 2008, the Nuristan Conservation Corps (NCC) was initiated to provide work, education, and training for 90 fighting-age males. Participants in this 1-year pilot program received basic education and natural resource management job skills training. Irrigation infrastructure was built on 26...

The Evaluation of Filmed Excerpts of Rogers, Perls, and Ellis by Beginning Counselor Trainees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, F. Donald; Byrne, Thomas P.

1977-01-01

Students (N=29) viewed three stimulus films and rated therapeutic effectiveness of the therapists. Students were subsequently rank-ordered on the basis of skill development and assigned to one of three groups (high, middle, or low.) Results revealed an overall higher evaluation for Rogers as compared to either Perls or Ellis. (Author)

The Federal Role in Confronting the Crisis in Adolescent Literacy. Policy Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haynes, Mariana

2010-01-01

Results from national reading assessments reveal that millions of young people leave high school without the advanced reading and writing skills required for career and college success. Young adults who lack reading and writing proficiency will likely be relegated to the ranks of unskilled workers in a world where literacy is an absolute…

Effectiveness of a Career Development Course on Students' Job Search Skills and Self-Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDow, Lauren W.; Zabrucky, Karen M.

2015-01-01

In the current economic landscape, most college students' primary goal for obtaining an undergraduate degree is an increase in job opportunities and salary potential. Additionally, the average combined result of graduates' job searches is one of the primary factors in rankings of higher education institutions. In this study we assessed the…

The Effects of a Lack of Career Pathing on Job Satisfaction among South African Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quan-Baffour, Kofi Poku; Arko-Achemfuor, Akwasi

2014-01-01

Education is an important ingredient for advancement in the knowledge-based economy of the contemporary world. Teachers therefore form the vehicle for provision and dissemination of relevant knowledge, skills and values for socio-economic development. In every career professionals are assured of moving through the ranks so long as they do their…

Specialization in Youth Sport: What Coaches Should Tell Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodey, Kimberly J.; Judge, Lawrence W.; Hoover, Jonathan V.

2013-01-01

We live in the age of the performance ethic. Youth sport, a highly visible and valued activity in communities across the nation, is a proving ground for children and parents alike. Fun sometimes equates to being a better athlete. The sport experience is assessed in terms of enhanced technical skill development and competitive ranking (Coakley,…

What Do Children Most Enjoy about Summer Soccer Camp? Gender and Group Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Rhys

2005-01-01

One hundred children attending a summer soccer camp in NE Ohio provided written data on what they most enjoyed about the camp. Findings indicated that, overall, they ranked "soccer games and skills" and "camp related activities" as the two leading major categories. In terms of gender group analysis (females = 49; males = 51)…

Validity and reliability of global operative assessment of laparoscopic skills (GOALS) in novice trainees performing a laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Kramp, Kelvin H; van Det, Marc J; Hoff, Christiaan; Lamme, Bas; Veeger, Nic J G M; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E N

2015-01-01

Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills (GOALS) assessment has been designed to evaluate skills in laparoscopic surgery. A longitudinal blinded study of randomized video fragments was conducted to estimate the validity and reliability of GOALS in novice trainees. In total, 10 trainees each performed 6 consecutive laparoscopic cholecystectomies. Sixty procedures were recorded on video. Video fragments of (1) opening of the peritoneum; (2) dissection of Calot's triangle and achievement of critical view of safety; and (3) dissection of the gallbladder from the liver bed were blinded, randomized, and rated by 2 consultant surgeons using GOALS. Also, a grade was given for overall competence. The correlation of GOALS with live observation Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) scores was calculated. Construct validity was estimated using the Friedman 2-way analysis of variance by ranks and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The interrater reliability was calculated using the absolute and consistency agreement 2-way random-effects model intraclass correlation coefficient. A high correlation was found between mean GOALS score (r = 0.879, p = 0.021) and mean OSATS score. The GOALS score increased significantly across the 6 procedures (p = 0.002). The trainees performed significantly better on their sixth when compared with their first cholecystectomy (p = 0.004). The consistency agreement interrater reliability was 0.37 for the mean GOALS score (p = 0.002) and 0.55 for overall competence (p < 0.001) of the 3 video fragments. The validity observed in this randomized blinded longitudinal study supports the existing evidence that GOALS is a valid tool for assessment of novice trainees. A relatively low reliability was found in this study. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unifying interdisciplinary education: designing and implementing an intern simulation educational curriculum to increase confidence in critical care from PGY1 to PGY2.

PubMed

Bullard, Mark J; Leuck, Jo Anna; Howley, Lisa D

2017-11-06

A longitudinal, multidisciplinary critical care simulation curriculum was developed and implemented within a teaching hospital to address the need for consistent, safe, efficient, and unified critical care training within graduate medical education. Primary goals were to increase learner confidence in critical care topics and procedural skills across all specialties. Secondary goals included improving communication skills and obtaining a high level of learner satisfaction. All interns caring for adult patients within our hospital participated in three 4-h simulation-based sessions scheduled over the second half of their intern year. Pre- and postcurricular surveys evaluated self-confidence in critical care topics, procedures, and communication skills. The Debriefing Assessment for Simulation in Healthcare Student Version (DASH-SV) Short Form was used to evaluate facilitator debriefing. Data were compared with Wilcoxon rank sum and signed rank test. Pre- and postcurricular surveys were collected from 51 of 52 interns (98% response rate) in curricular year 1 and 59 of 59 interns (100% response rate) in curricular year 2 in six programs within the hospital. Resident confidence significantly improved in all areas (p < .05). DASH-SV demonstrated overall effective facilitator debriefing and > 75% of interns in both curricular years 1 and 2 expressed a desire for future educational sessions. The implemented curriculum increased learner confidence in select critical care topics, procedures, and communication skills and demonstrated a high level of learner satisfaction. The curriculum has expanded to learners from three other teaching hospitals within our system to unify critical care education for all interns caring for adult patients.

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

OCT despeckling via weighted nuclear norm constrained non-local low-rank representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Chang; Zheng, Xiao; Cao, Lijuan

2017-10-01

As a non-invasive imaging modality, optical coherence tomography (OCT) plays an important role in medical sciences. However, OCT images are always corrupted by speckle noise, which can mask image features and pose significant challenges for medical analysis. In this work, we propose an OCT despeckling method by using non-local, low-rank representation with weighted nuclear norm constraint. Unlike previous non-local low-rank representation based OCT despeckling methods, we first generate a guidance image to improve the non-local group patches selection quality, then a low-rank optimization model with a weighted nuclear norm constraint is formulated to process the selected group patches. The corrupted probability of each pixel is also integrated into the model as a weight to regularize the representation error term. Note that each single patch might belong to several groups, hence different estimates of each patch are aggregated to obtain its final despeckled result. Both qualitative and quantitative experimental results on real OCT images show the superior performance of the proposed method compared with other state-of-the-art speckle removal techniques.

Exploiting the Maximum Entropy Principle to Increase Retrieval Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, William S.

1983-01-01

Presents information retrieval design approach in which queries of computer-based system consist of sets of terms, either unweighted or weighted with subjective term precision estimates, and retrieval outputs ranked by probability of usefulness estimated by "maximum entropy principle." Boolean and weighted request systems are discussed.…

Economic Observations on the Decision to Attend Law School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahart, Alan M.

1975-01-01

On the premise that the expected benefits of a legal education can be measured in dollar terms, the author develops a formula for determining whether or not to matriculate based on expected earnings, educational costs, and probability of employment (graduation, class rank, passing bar exam, and supply/demand conditions). (JT)

Rank and independence in contingency table

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumoto, Shusaku

2004-04-01

A contingency table summarizes the conditional frequencies of two attributes and shows how these two attributes are dependent on each other. Thus, this table is a fundamental tool for pattern discovery with conditional probabilities, such as rule discovery. In this paper, a contingency table is interpreted from the viewpoint of statistical independence and granular computing. The first important observation is that a contingency table compares two attributes with respect to the number of equivalence classes. For example, a n x n table compares two attributes with the same granularity, while a m x n(m >= n) table compares two attributes with different granularities. The second important observation is that matrix algebra is a key point of analysis of this table. Especially, the degree of independence, rank plays a very important role in evaluating the degree of statistical independence. Relations between rank and the degree of dependence are also investigated.

Comparing nutrition programs conducted by public health and Cooperative Extension personnel.

PubMed

Brown, J L; Adams, P A; Kaltreider, D L; Sims, L S

1990-01-01

We surveyed 218 county extension agents, 75 state extension specialists, 163 public health nutritionists, and 87 public health administrators in 16 states to compare the nutrition program characteristics of extension personnel with public health personnel. Public health personnel were most strongly influenced by funding regulations--more than 80% of public health nutritionists cited infant/preschool nutrition and nutrition for pregnant/lactating women as program topics. About half of the extension agents listed food preservation and preparation as the dominant topics provided. Public health personnel most frequently designed programs for pregnant and lactating women and low-income clientele; 91% of the nutritionists ranked one-to-one counseling as one of their three most important delivery methods. Extension personnel designed programs more often for homemakers/adults and youth and ranked a combination of group and media delivery methods as most important. Public health personnel use anthropometric measures and food intake records to evaluate their programs; extension personnel use written questionnaires and program records. More than 50% of the nutritionists ranked improving the health of their clients as one of the three most important impacts of their programs; more than 50% of the extension agents ranked increasing knowledge and improving skills as their most important impacts.

Exact p-values for pairwise comparison of Friedman rank sums, with application to comparing classifiers.

PubMed

Eisinga, Rob; Heskes, Tom; Pelzer, Ben; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred

2017-01-25

The Friedman rank sum test is a widely-used nonparametric method in computational biology. In addition to examining the overall null hypothesis of no significant difference among any of the rank sums, it is typically of interest to conduct pairwise comparison tests. Current approaches to such tests rely on large-sample approximations, due to the numerical complexity of computing the exact distribution. These approximate methods lead to inaccurate estimates in the tail of the distribution, which is most relevant for p-value calculation. We propose an efficient, combinatorial exact approach for calculating the probability mass distribution of the rank sum difference statistic for pairwise comparison of Friedman rank sums, and compare exact results with recommended asymptotic approximations. Whereas the chi-squared approximation performs inferiorly to exact computation overall, others, particularly the normal, perform well, except for the extreme tail. Hence exact calculation offers an improvement when small p-values occur following multiple testing correction. Exact inference also enhances the identification of significant differences whenever the observed values are close to the approximate critical value. We illustrate the proposed method in the context of biological machine learning, were Friedman rank sum difference tests are commonly used for the comparison of classifiers over multiple datasets. We provide a computationally fast method to determine the exact p-value of the absolute rank sum difference of a pair of Friedman rank sums, making asymptotic tests obsolete. Calculation of exact p-values is easy to implement in statistical software and the implementation in R is provided in one of the Additional files and is also available at http://www.ru.nl/publish/pages/726696/friedmanrsd.zip .

Military positions and post-service occupational mobility of Union Army veterans, 1861–1880

PubMed Central

Lee, Chulhee

2009-01-01

Although the Civil War has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention, little is known about how different wartime experiences of soldiers influenced their civilian lives after the war. This paper examines how military rank and duty of Union Army soldiers while in service affected their post-service occupational mobility. Higher ranks and non-infantry duties appear to have provided more opportunities for developing skills, especially those required for white-collar jobs. Among the recruits who were unskilled workers at the time of enlistment, commissioned and non-commissioned officers were much more likely to move up to a white-collar job by 1880. Similarly, unskilled recruits assigned to white-collar military duties were more likely to enter a white-collar occupation by 1880. The higher occupational mobility of higher-ranking soldiers is likely to have resulted from disparate human capital accumulations offered by their military positions rather than from their superior abilities. PMID:20234792

Motor Learning as Young Gymnast's Talent Indicator.

PubMed

di Cagno, Alessandra; Battaglia, Claudia; Fiorilli, Giovanni; Piazza, Marina; Giombini, Arrigo; Fagnani, Federica; Borrione, Paolo; Calcagno, Giuseppe; Pigozzi, Fabio

2014-12-01

Talent identification plans are designed to select young athletes with the ability to achieve future success in sports. The aim of the study was to verify the predictive value of coordination and precision in skill acquisition during motor learning, as indicators of talent. One hundred gymnasts, both cadets (aged 11.5 ± 0.5 yr.) and juniors (aged 13.3 ± 0.5 years), competing at the national level, were enrolled in the study. The assessment of motor coordination involved three tests of the validated Hirtz's battery (1985), and motor skill learning involved four technical tests, specific of rhythmic gymnastics. All the tests were correlated with ranking and performance scores reached by each gymnast in the 2011, 2012, and 2013 National Championships. Coordination tests were significantly correlated to 2013 Championships scores (p < 0.01) and ranking (p < 0.05) of elite cadet athletes. Precision, in skill acquisition test results, was positively and significantly associated with scores in 2013 (adj. R(2) = 0.26, p < 0.01). Gymnasts with the best results in coordination and motor learning tests went on to achieve better competition results in three- year time. Key pointsIn talent identification and selection procedures it is better to include the evaluation of coordination and motor learning ability.Motor learning assessment concerns performance improvement and the ability to develop it, rather than evaluating the athlete's current performance.In this manner talent identification processes should be focused on the future performance capabilities of athletes.

Motor Learning as Young Gymnast’s Talent Indicator

PubMed Central

di Cagno, Alessandra; Battaglia, Claudia; Fiorilli, Giovanni; Piazza, Marina; Giombini, Arrigo; Fagnani, Federica; Borrione, Paolo; Calcagno, Giuseppe; Pigozzi, Fabio

2014-01-01

Talent identification plans are designed to select young athletes with the ability to achieve future success in sports. The aim of the study was to verify the predictive value of coordination and precision in skill acquisition during motor learning, as indicators of talent. One hundred gymnasts, both cadets (aged 11.5 ± 0.5 yr.) and juniors (aged 13.3 ± 0.5 years), competing at the national level, were enrolled in the study. The assessment of motor coordination involved three tests of the validated Hirtz’s battery (1985), and motor skill learning involved four technical tests, specific of rhythmic gymnastics. All the tests were correlated with ranking and performance scores reached by each gymnast in the 2011, 2012, and 2013 National Championships. Coordination tests were significantly correlated to 2013 Championships scores (p < 0.01) and ranking (p < 0.05) of elite cadet athletes. Precision, in skill acquisition test results, was positively and significantly associated with scores in 2013 (adj. R2 = 0.26, p < 0.01). Gymnasts with the best results in coordination and motor learning tests went on to achieve better competition results in three- year time. Key points In talent identification and selection procedures it is better to include the evaluation of coordination and motor learning ability. Motor learning assessment concerns performance improvement and the ability to develop it, rather than evaluating the athlete’s current performance. In this manner talent identification processes should be focused on the future performance capabilities of athletes. PMID:25435768

Assessment of SWE data assimilation for ensemble streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, Kristie J.; Hogue, Terri S.; Barik, Muhammad; He, Minxue

2014-11-01

An assessment of data assimilation (DA) for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) using seasonal water supply hindcasting in the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) and the National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologic forecast models is undertaken. Two parameter sets, one from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (RFC) and one from the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, are tested. For each parameter set, hindcasts are generated using initial conditions derived with and without the inclusion of a DA scheme that integrates snow water equivalent (SWE) observations. The DREAM-DA scenario uses an Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation (ICEA) framework that also considers model and parameter uncertainty. Hindcasts are evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic forecast verification metrics. In general, the impact of DA on the skill of the seasonal water supply predictions is mixed. For deterministic (ensemble mean) predictions, the Percent Bias (PBias) is improved with integration of the DA. DREAM-DA and the RFC-DA have the lowest biases and the RFC-DA has the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). However, the RFC and DREAM-DA have similar RMSE scores. For the probabilistic predictions, the RFC and DREAM have the highest Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Scores (CRPSS) and the RFC has the best discrimination for low flows. Reliability results are similar between the non-DA and DA tests and the DREAM and DREAM-DA have better reliability than the RFC and RFC-DA for forecast dates February 1 and later. Despite producing improved streamflow simulations in previous studies, the hindcast analysis suggests that the DA method tested may not result in obvious improvements in streamflow forecasts. We advocate that integration of hindcasting and probabilistic metrics provides more rigorous insight on model performance for forecasting applications, such as in this study.

Building a Consensus on Community Health Workers’ Scope of Practice: Lessons From New York

PubMed Central

Matos, Sergio; Hicks, April L.; Campbell, Ayanna; Moore, Addison; Diaz, Diurka

2012-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated efforts in New York to build a consensus between community health workers (CHWs) and employers on CHWs’ scope of practice, training standards, and certification procedures. Methods. We conducted multiple-choice surveys in 2008 and 2010 with 226 CHWs and 44 employers. We compared CHWs’ and employers’ recommendations regarding 28 scope of practice elements. The participatory ranking method was used to identify consensus scope of practice recommendations. Results. There was consensus on 5 scope of practice elements: outreach and community organizing, case management and care coordination, home visits, health education and coaching, and system navigation. For each element, 3 to 4 essential skills were identified, giving a total of 27 skills. These included all skills recommended in national CHW studies, along with 3 unique to New York: computer skills, participatory research methods, and time management. Conclusions. CHWs and employers in New York were in consensus on CHWs’ scope of practice on virtually all of the detailed core competency skills. The CHW scope of practice recommendations of these groups can help other states refine their scope of practice elements. PMID:22897548

A History of the Community College Internship Program at North Carolina State University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broadhurst, Christopher J.; Bartlett, James E.

2014-01-01

Following World War II, North Carolina created public junior colleges and industrial education centers to meet the educational demands of veterans and expand the technical skills of the state's workforce. Despite the creation of these campuses, in the early 1960s North Carolina ranked 47th in the number of citizens in college, and 66 counties in…

Peer-to-Peer Learning and the Army Learning Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-08

their goals. 4. Capability to operate and provide advice at the national level. 5. Cultural astuteness and ability to use this awareness and...Joint and cultural context of the Operating Environment, collaborative skills are required. This survey finds that collaboration among peers ranked...and engagement (oral, written, negotiation) • Critical thinking and problem solving • Cultural and joint, interagency, intergovernmental, and

Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Academic Librarian Positions during 2013: What Carnegie Classifications Reveal about Desired STEM Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trei, Kelli

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the requirements and preferences of 171 science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) academic librarian positions in the United States as advertised in 2013. This analysis compares the STEM background experience preferences with the Carnegie rankings of the employing institution. The research examines the extent to which…

Why Pick Government Cybersecurity? Longtime Leader Explains | DoDLive

Science.gov Websites

superintendent Stavig is a squadron superintendent who's responsible for training and development of a group of effective at work because of her enhanced skills and training. Stavig continued moving up in the ranks as a ;Working with defense is great because you not only get world-class training, but you're also placed in a

Adding the 4Cs to the 3Rs: Making a Place for Creativity in the Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garriock, Roger

2011-01-01

The Conference Board of Canada ranked us 14th out of the 17 major industrialized nations on measures of innovation, and our "productivity" track record has fared no better. Experts around the world agree that education is the key foundational building block for innovation skill development, and that the seeds of innovation--curiosity,…

Parental Perception of the Importance of Friendship and Other Outcome Priorities in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petrina, Neysa; Carter, Mark; Stephenson, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Parental perceptions of the importance of friendship development in comparison to other outcome priorities are examined in this research. Parents of children with high functioning autism between the age of 5-10?years (N?=?74) were asked to rate and rank the importance of the following six outcome priorities: friendship, social skills, physical and…

Consumer Judging: Teaching Decision-Making Skills in the Marketplace. 4-H Manual for Grade Levels 4-12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomason, Deborah J., Ed.

This 4-H manual provides instructions and materials for a consumer education activity. It contains a wide range of activities and learning opportunities for a hypothetical buying situation with several choices or alternatives provided. The manual is designed to teach the participant how to rank the choices and develop oral reasons for that…

Faculty development to improve teaching at a health sciences center: a needs assessment.

PubMed

Scarbecz, Mark; Russell, Cynthia K; Shreve, Robert G; Robinson, Melissa M; Scheid, Cheryl R

2011-02-01

There has been increasing interest at health science centers in improving the education of health professionals by offering faculty development activities. In 2007-08, as part of an effort to expand education-related faculty development offerings on campus, the University of Tennessee Health Science Center surveyed faculty members in an effort to identify faculty development activities that would be of interest. Factor analysis of survey data indicated that faculty interests in the areas of teaching and learning can be grouped into six dimensions: development of educational goals and objectives, the use of innovative teaching techniques, clinical teaching, improving traditional teaching skills, addressing teaching challenges, and facilitating participation. There were significant differences in the level of interest in education-related faculty development activities by academic rank and by the college of appointment. Full professors expressed somewhat less interest in faculty development activities than faculty members of lower ranks. Faculty members in the Colleges of Medicine and Dentistry expressed somewhat greater interest in faculty development to improve traditional teaching skills. The policy implications of the survey results are discussed, including the need for faculty development activities that target the needs of specific faculty groups.

Performance anxiety experiences of professional ballet dancers: the importance of control.

PubMed

Walker, Imogen J; Nordin-Bates, Sanna M

2010-01-01

Performance anxiety research abounds in sport psychology, yet has been relatively sparse in dance. The present study explores ballet dancers' experiences of performance anxiety in relation to: 1. symptom type, intensity, and directional interpretation; 2. experience level (including company rank); and 3. self-confidence and psychological skills. Fifteen elite ballet dancers representing all ranks in one company were interviewed, and qualitative content analysis was conducted. Results revealed that cognitive anxiety was more dominant than somatic anxiety, and was unanimously interpreted as debilitative to performance. Somatic anxiety was more likely to be interpreted as facilitative, with the majority of dancers recognizing that a certain amount of anxiety could be beneficial to performance. Principal dancers suffered from higher intensities of performance anxiety than corps de ballet members. Feeling out of control emerged as a major theme in both the experience of anxiety and its interpretation. As a result, prevention or handling of anxiety symptoms may be accomplished by helping dancers to feel in control. Dancers may benefit from education about anxiety symptoms and their interpretation, in addition to psychological skills training incorporating cognitive restructuring strategies and problem-focussed coping to help increase their feelings of being in control.

Structuring students’ analogical reasoning in solving algebra problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lailiyah, S.; Nusantara, T.; Sa'dijah, C.; Irawan, E. B.; Kusaeri; Asyhar, A. H.

2018-01-01

The average achievement of Indonesian students’ mathematics skills according to Benchmark International Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is ranked at the 38th out of 42 countries and according to the survey result in Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) is ranked at the 64th out of 65 countries. The low mathematics skill of Indonesian student has become an important reason to research more deeply about reasoning and algebra in mathematics. Analogical reasoning is a very important component in mathematics because it is the key to creativity and it can make the learning process in the classroom become effective. The major part of the analogical reasoning is about structuring including the processes of inferencing and decision-making happens. Those processes involve base domain and target domain. Methodologically, the subjects of this research were 42 students from class XII. The sources of data were derived from the results of thinks aloud, the transcribed interviews, and the videos taken while the subject working on the instruments and interviews. The collected data were analyzed using qualitative techniques. The result of this study described the structuring characteristics of students’ analogical reasoning in solving algebra problems from all the research subjects.

Defining Baconian Probability for Use in Assurance Argumentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graydon, Patrick J.

2016-01-01

The use of assurance cases (e.g., safety cases) in certification raises questions about confidence in assurance argument claims. Some researchers propose to assess confidence in assurance cases using Baconian induction. That is, a writer or analyst (1) identifies defeaters that might rebut or undermine each proposition in the assurance argument and (2) determines whether each defeater can be dismissed or ignored and why. Some researchers also propose denoting confidence using the counts of defeaters identified and eliminated-which they call Baconian probability-and performing arithmetic on these measures. But Baconian probabilities were first defined as ordinal rankings which cannot be manipulated arithmetically. In this paper, we recount noteworthy definitions of Baconian induction, review proposals to assess confidence in assurance claims using Baconian probability, analyze how these comport with or diverge from the original definition, and make recommendations for future practice.

Relationship between Procedural Tactical Knowledge and Specific Motor Skills in Young Soccer Players

PubMed Central

Aquino, Rodrigo; Marques, Renato Francisco R.; Petiot, Grégory Hallé; Gonçalves, Luiz Guilherme C.; Moraes, Camila; Santiago, Paulo Roberto P.; Puggina, Enrico Fuini

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between offensive tactical knowledge and the soccer-specific motor skills performance. Fifteen participants were submitted to two evaluation tests, one to assess their technical and tactical analysis. The motor skills performance was measured through four tests of technical soccer skills: ball control, shooting, passing and dribbling. The tactical performance was based on a tactical assessment system called FUT-SAT (Analyses of Procedural Tactical Knowledge in Soccer). Afterwards, technical and tactical evaluation scores were ranked with and without the use of the cluster method. A positive, weak correlation was perceived in both analyses (rho = 0.39, not significant p = 0.14 (with cluster analysis); and rho = 0.35; not significant p = 0.20 (without cluster analysis)). We can conclude that there was a weak association between the technical and the offensive tactical knowledge. This shows the need to reflect on the use of such tests to assess technical skills in team sports since they do not take into account the variability and unpredictability of game actions and disregard the inherent needs to assess such skill performance in the game. PMID:29910300

The Skillings-Mack test (Friedman test when there are missing data).

PubMed

Chatfield, Mark; Mander, Adrian

2009-04-01

The Skillings-Mack statistic (Skillings and Mack, 1981, Technometrics 23: 171-177) is a general Friedman-type statistic that can be used in almost any block design with an arbitrary missing-data structure. The missing data can be either missing by design, for example, an incomplete block design, or missing completely at random. The Skillings-Mack test is equivalent to the Friedman test when there are no missing data in a balanced complete block design, and the Skillings-Mack test is equivalent to the test suggested in Durbin (1951, British Journal of Psychology, Statistical Section 4: 85-90) for a balanced incomplete block design. The Friedman test was implemented in Stata by Goldstein (1991, Stata Technical Bulletin 3: 26-27) and further developed in Goldstein (2005, Stata Journal 5: 285). This article introduces the skilmack command, which performs the Skillings-Mack test.The skilmack command is also useful when there are many ties or equal ranks (N.B. the Friedman statistic compared with the chi(2) distribution will give a conservative result), as well as for small samples; appropriate results can be obtained by simulating the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis.

Team research at the biology-mathematics interface: project management perspectives.

PubMed

Milton, John G; Radunskaya, Ami E; Lee, Arthur H; de Pillis, Lisette G; Bartlett, Diana F

2010-01-01

The success of interdisciplinary research teams depends largely upon skills related to team performance. We evaluated student and team performance for undergraduate biology and mathematics students who participated in summer research projects conducted in off-campus laboratories. The student teams were composed of a student with a mathematics background and an experimentally oriented biology student. The team mentors typically ranked the students' performance very good to excellent over a range of attributes that included creativity and ability to conduct independent research. However, the research teams experienced problems meeting prespecified deadlines due to poor time and project management skills. Because time and project management skills can be readily taught and moreover typically reflect good research practices, simple modifications should be made to undergraduate curricula so that the promise of initiatives, such as MATH-BIO 2010, can be implemented.

Testing Sleep Consolidation in Skill Learning: A Field Study Using an Online Game.

PubMed

Stafford, Tom; Haasnoot, Erwin

2017-04-01

Using an observational sample of players of a simple online game (n > 1.2 million), we are able to trace the development of skill in that game. Information on playing time, and player location, allows us to estimate time of day during which practice took place. We compare those whose breaks in practice probably contained a night's sleep and those whose breaks in practice probably did not contain a night's sleep. Our analysis confirms experimental evidence showing a benefit of spacing for skill learning, but it fails to find any additional benefit of sleeping during a break from practice. We discuss reasons why the well-established phenomenon of sleep consolidation might not manifest in an observational study of skill development. We put the spacing effect into the context of the other known influences on skill learning: improvement with practice, and individual differences in initial performance. Analysis of performance data from games allows experimental results to be demonstrated outside of the lab and for experimental phenomenon to be put in the context of the performance of the whole task. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

No More Excuses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunner, Judy

2010-01-01

The purpose of swimming is to travel safely through water; the purpose of reading is to construct meaning. Both skills require perseverance from the student and patience from the teacher. Not having the necessary swimming skills may result in tragic consequences. Not having the ability to read and understand text--although probably not fatal--will…

Visual scanning behavior and pilot workload

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tole, J. R.; Stephens, A. T.; Vivaudou, M.; Ephrath, A. R.; Young, L. R.

1983-01-01

Sophisticated man machine interaction often requires the human operator to perform a stereotyped scan of various instruments in order to monitor and/or control a system. For situations in which this type of stereotyped behavior exists, such as certain phases of instrument flight, scan pattern was shown to be altered by the imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. A study designed to examine the relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload is described. It was found that a verbal loading task of varying difficulty causes pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increases and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task also affected the rank ordering of scanning sequences. By examining the behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels, it was suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. A graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modelling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Selecting Appropriate Training Goals and Objectives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zane, Thomas; Thvedt, John E.

The authors propose a system for determining which goals and target behaviors are of highest priority for handicapped students. In a meeting of the interdisciplinary treatment team, goals are set forth and ranked according to answers to a series of questions: (1) will acquiring the behavior increase the probability of the client living, being…

Mental Health and Education Decisions. CEE DP 136

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornaglia, Francesca; Crivellaro, Elena; McNally, Sandra

2012-01-01

Mental health problems--and depression in particular--have been rising internationally. The link between poor mental health and poor educational outcomes is particularly interesting in the case of the UK which has a low international ranking both on measures of child wellbeing and the probability of early drop-out from the labour market and…

The interplay of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior among youth students in contemporary China: a large scale cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Tang, Fang; Xue, Fuzhong; Qin, Ping

2015-07-31

Stressful life events are common among youth students and may induce psychological problems and even suicidal behaviors in those with poor coping skills. This study aims to assess the influence of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior and to elucidate the underlying mechanism using a large sample of university students in China. 5972 students, randomly selected from 6 universities, completed the questionnaire survey. Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the effect of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior. Bayesian network was further adopted to probe their probabilistic relationships. Of the 5972 students, 7.64% reported the presence of suicidal behavior (attempt or ideation) within the past one year period. Stressful life events such as strong conflicts with classmates and a failure in study exam constituted strong risk factors for suicidal behavior. The influence of coping skills varied according to the strategies adapted toward problems with a high score of approach coping skills significantly associated with a reduced risk of suicidal behavior. The Bayesian network indicated that the probability of suicidal behavior associated with specific life events was to a large extent conditional on coping skills. For instance, a stressful experience of having strong conflicts with classmates could result in a probability of suicidal behavior of 21.25% and 15.36% respectively, for female and male students with the score of approach coping skills under the average. Stressful life events and deficient coping skills are strong risk factors for suicidal behavior among youth students. The results underscore the importance of prevention efforts to improve coping skills towards stressful life events.

Laplacian normalization and random walk on heterogeneous networks for disease-gene prioritization.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhi-Qin; Han, Guo-Sheng; Yu, Zu-Guo; Li, Jinyan

2015-08-01

Random walk on heterogeneous networks is a recently emerging approach to effective disease gene prioritization. Laplacian normalization is a technique capable of normalizing the weight of edges in a network. We use this technique to normalize the gene matrix and the phenotype matrix before the construction of the heterogeneous network, and also use this idea to define the transition matrices of the heterogeneous network. Our method has remarkably better performance than the existing methods for recovering known gene-phenotype relationships. The Shannon information entropy of the distribution of the transition probabilities in our networks is found to be smaller than the networks constructed by the existing methods, implying that a higher number of top-ranked genes can be verified as disease genes. In fact, the most probable gene-phenotype relationships ranked within top 3 or top 5 in our gene lists can be confirmed by the OMIM database for many cases. Our algorithms have shown remarkably superior performance over the state-of-the-art algorithms for recovering gene-phenotype relationships. All Matlab codes can be available upon email request. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

PubMed Central

Salomon, Joshua A

2003-01-01

Background In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO) or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. Methods Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression) with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. Results Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99). Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. Conclusions Modeling health-state valuations based on ordinal ranks can provide results that are similar to those obtained from more widely analyzed valuation techniques such as the TTO. The information content in aggregate ranking data is not currently exploited to full advantage. The possibility of estimating cardinal valuations from ordinal ranks could also simplify future data collection dramatically and facilitate wider empirical study of health-state valuations in diverse settings and population groups. PMID:14687419

RRCRank: a fusion method using rank strategy for residue-residue contact prediction.

PubMed

Jing, Xiaoyang; Dong, Qiwen; Lu, Ruqian

2017-09-02

In structural biology area, protein residue-residue contacts play a crucial role in protein structure prediction. Some researchers have found that the predicted residue-residue contacts could effectively constrain the conformational search space, which is significant for de novo protein structure prediction. In the last few decades, related researchers have developed various methods to predict residue-residue contacts, especially, significant performance has been achieved by using fusion methods in recent years. In this work, a novel fusion method based on rank strategy has been proposed to predict contacts. Unlike the traditional regression or classification strategies, the contact prediction task is regarded as a ranking task. First, two kinds of features are extracted from correlated mutations methods and ensemble machine-learning classifiers, and then the proposed method uses the learning-to-rank algorithm to predict contact probability of each residue pair. First, we perform two benchmark tests for the proposed fusion method (RRCRank) on CASP11 dataset and CASP12 dataset respectively. The test results show that the RRCRank method outperforms other well-developed methods, especially for medium and short range contacts. Second, in order to verify the superiority of ranking strategy, we predict contacts by using the traditional regression and classification strategies based on the same features as ranking strategy. Compared with these two traditional strategies, the proposed ranking strategy shows better performance for three contact types, in particular for long range contacts. Third, the proposed RRCRank has been compared with several state-of-the-art methods in CASP11 and CASP12. The results show that the RRCRank could achieve comparable prediction precisions and is better than three methods in most assessment metrics. The learning-to-rank algorithm is introduced to develop a novel rank-based method for the residue-residue contact prediction of proteins, which achieves state-of-the-art performance based on the extensive assessment.

Study of recreational land and open space using Skylab imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sattinger, I. J. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. An analysis of the statistical uniqueness of each of the signatures of the Gratiot-Saginaw State Game Area was made by computing a matrix of probabilities of misclassification for all possible signature pairs. Within each data set, the 35 signatures were then aggregated into a smaller set of composite signatures by combining groups of signatures having high probabilities of misclassification. Computer separation of forest denisty classes was poor with multispectral scanner data collected on 5 August 1973. Signatures from the scanner data were further analyzed to determine the ranking of spectral channels for computer separation of the scene classes. Probabilities of misclassification were computed for composite signatures using four separate combinations of data source and channel selection.

Critical leadership and management skills for pathology practice.

PubMed

Brimhall, Bradley B; Wright, Louis D; McGregor, Kelli L; Hernandez, James S

2007-10-01

Managed care has changed the nature of medical practice. The practice of pathology has also changed and is likely to undergo further modification. Additional skills in leadership and management are needed to perform optimally in the current medical marketplace. To determine whether pathologists view business and informatics skills as being important and valuable in their practices. A survey was sent electronically (via e-mail) to 2566 pathologists and pathology administrators. Two hundred sixteen survey recipients (8.4%) responded to the survey. The response rate to individual questions ranged from 86% to 99% (186 to 214 of 216 total respondents). Most who took the survey ranked communication (203/209; 97%), leadership skills (165/209; 79%), and systems thinking skills (155/209; 74%) as either "very important" or "essential." Fewer respondents were willing to offer salary premiums for marketing (108/196; 55%), business or finance (92/196; 47%), or staff leadership (95/196; 48%) skills unless the candidate had a track record of measurable achievement using these skills. Those practicing in academia as well as those making hiring decisions by themselves were more likely to value leadership and management skills. Fewer than 1% of respondents in any category considered current pathology residency training in leadership and management to be adequate. Prospective employers value leadership and management skills. Pathology residency programs must include meaningful training in pathology practice management and informatics to satisfy the demand for these skills in the modern pathology marketplace.

The transition into veterinary practice: Opinions of recent graduates and final year students

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. Methods The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Results Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and zoonotic issues, veterinary legislation and veterinary practice management, commitment to continuing professional development and ability to evaluate information higher than recent graduates. Recent graduates ranked the attributes of integrity, friendliness and compassion higher than final year students. Conclusions Recent graduates and final year students rate highly the attributes which help foster the client/veterinarian relationship. Recent graduates reflect that a focus on knowledge based attributes is less important once in practice when compared to final year. The study confirms the importance to recent graduates and final year students of attributes considered as non-technical in the transition to working in the veterinary profession. PMID:21939551

The transition into veterinary practice: opinions of recent graduates and final year students.

PubMed

Rhind, Susan M; Baillie, Sarah; Kinnison, Tierney; Shaw, Darren J; Bell, Catriona E; Mellanby, Richard J; Hammond, Jenny; Hudson, Neil P H; Whittington, Rachel E; Donnelly, Ruth

2011-09-22

The transition from veterinary student to member of the veterinary profession is known to be challenging. This study aimed to determine and compare the opinions of final year veterinary students and recent graduates on graduate attributes that ease this transition. The study was carried out across 3 veterinary schools in the United Kingdom. Paper based or electronic surveys were used. Final year students in the 3 schools were surveyed either electronically (school A) or on paper (schools B and C). Student cohort sizes were 112, 227 and 102 respectively. Recent graduates were contacted either at a reunion event (school A) or electronically from database records (school B and school C). Cohort sizes of contacted graduates were 80, 175 and 91 respectively. Respondents were asked to rate 42 individual attributes on a 5 point Likert scale. Focus groups with final year students and recent graduates and telephone interviews with recent graduates were carried out. Data were analysed by two researchers through a combination of manual coding and thematic analysis. Data were grouped into broad themes then sorted into narrower themes. Data were then searched for counter examples. Response rates for final year students were 34% (school A), 36% (school B) and 40% (school C). Response rates for recent graduates were 56% (school A), 20% (school B) and 11% (school C). There was a high level of agreement between the cohorts with respect to communication skills, problem solving and decision making skills, recognition of own limitations and the ability to cope with pressure all rated unanimously important or very important. Business acumen, knowledge of veterinary practice management and research skills were the 3 attributes ranked at the bottom of the list. Nine attributes were identified with a significantly different (p < 0.05) ranking between the cohorts. Final year students ranked veterinary clinical knowledge, knowledge of veterinary public health and zoonotic issues, veterinary legislation and veterinary practice management, commitment to continuing professional development and ability to evaluate information higher than recent graduates. Recent graduates ranked the attributes of integrity, friendliness and compassion higher than final year students. Recent graduates and final year students rate highly the attributes which help foster the client/veterinarian relationship. Recent graduates reflect that a focus on knowledge based attributes is less important once in practice when compared to final year. The study confirms the importance to recent graduates and final year students of attributes considered as non-technical in the transition to working in the veterinary profession.

A national study of breast and colorectal cancer patients' decision-making for novel personalized medicine genomic diagnostics.

PubMed

Issa, Amalia M; Tufail, Waqas; Atehortua, Nelson; McKeever, John

2013-05-01

Molecular diagnostics are increasingly being used to help guide decision-making for personalized medical treatment of breast and colorectal cancer patients. The main aim of this study was to better understand and determine breast and colorectal cancer patients' decision-making strategies and the trade-offs they make in deciding about characteristics of molecular genomic diagnostics for breast and colorectal cancer. We surveyed a nationally representative sample of 300 breast and colorectal cancer patients using a previously developed web-administered instrument. Eligibility criteria included patients aged 18 years and older with either breast or colorectal cancer. We explored several attributes and attribute levels of molecular genomic diagnostics in 20 scenarios. Our analysis revealed that both breast and colorectal cancer patients weighted the capability of molecular genomic diagnostics to determine the probability of treatment efficacy as being of greater importance than information provided to detect adverse events. The probability of either false-positive or -negative results was ranked highly as a potential barrier by both breast and colorectal patients. However, 78.6% of breast cancer patients ranked the possibility of a 'false-negative test result leading to undertreatment' higher than the 'chance of a false positive, which may lead to overtreatment' (68%). This finding contrasted with the views of colorectal cancer patients who ranked the chance of a false positive as being of greater concern than a false negative (72.8 vs 63%). Overall, cancer patients exhibited a high willingness to accept and pay for genomic diagnostic tests, especially among breast cancer patients. Cancer patients seek a test accuracy rate of 90% or higher. Breast and colorectal cancer patients' decisions about genomic diagnostics are influenced more by the probability of being cured than by avoiding potential severe adverse events. This study provides insights into the relative weight that breast and colorectal cancer patients place on various aspects of molecular genomic diagnostics, and the trade-offs they are willing to make among attributes of such tests.

Student-selected projects: can they enhance lifelong learning skills?

PubMed

Whittle, Sue R; Murdoch-Eaton, Deborah G

2002-01-01

Student-selected projects with clearly identified transferable skill objectives have been introduced in Year 1, to help students focus on developing their lifelong learning skills. This study aimed to assess the impact of this innovation on students' perceptions of their skills, and to compare these views with those of students from the previous course. Students' views of their skill abilities were assessed by questionnaire at the beginning and end of the first year, and at the end of each project. Students report improvements, particularly in their IT and presentation skills, but an overall decrease in confidence in their transferable skills at the end of the year compared with the previous cohort. Students appear to recognize development of new skills, but seem less able to identify improvement in existing skills. Increased emphasis on skills development, together with practice of self-evaluation, has reduced students' self-confidence, probably to a more realistic level.

Estimating sales and sales market share from sales rank data for consumer appliances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touzani, Samir; Van Buskirk, Robert

2016-06-01

Our motivation in this work is to find an adequate probability distribution to fit sales volumes of different appliances. This distribution allows for the translation of sales rank into sales volume. This paper shows that the log-normal distribution and specifically the truncated version are well suited for this purpose. We demonstrate that using sales proxies derived from a calibrated truncated log-normal distribution function can be used to produce realistic estimates of market average product prices, and product attributes. We show that the market averages calculated with the sales proxies derived from the calibrated, truncated log-normal distribution provide better market average estimates than sales proxies estimated with simpler distribution functions.

[Origins of the coat, appearance of physicians of the Russian fleet in the first third of XVIII century].

PubMed

Danchenko, V G

2011-05-01

The article is devoted to the reconstruction of medical uniforms Russian navy first third of the 18th century. It can be assumed that doctors were in varying degrees, the senior officer's dress, but of course without the braid, although there are exceptions, which related to doctors willing to go to a more senior hypostasis. A number of documents of different structures gives rise to speak with a high probability that the doctors of different ranks, serving in the Marine units that had shaped dress that is largely consistent with their position in the hierarchy of ranks and received in the near future, its development.

Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

2016-01-01

Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

Effectiveness of the AAOS Leadership Fellows Program for Orthopaedic Surgeons.

PubMed

Day, Charles S; Tabrizi, Shervin; Kramer, Jeffrey; Yule, Arthur C; Ahn, Brian S

2010-11-17

Effective physician leadership is critical to the future success of healthcare organizations. The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) Leadership Fellows Program is a one-year program designed to train young orthopaedic surgeons to become future leaders in orthopaedics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the AAOS Leadership Fellows Program on the leadership skills and achievements of its participants. Graduates of the Leadership Fellows Program were compared with a control group of previous applicants who were not accepted to the program (applicants) in a retrospective cohort comparison study. A subjective survey of leadership skills was used to assess the confidence of the two cohorts in eight areas of leadership. In addition, an updated curriculum vitae from each of sixty leadership fellows from the classes of 2003 through 2009 and from each of forty-seven applicants was retrospectively reviewed for evidence of leadership. The updated curriculum vitae of the leadership fellows was evaluated for leadership activity attained prior to and following participation in the program, while the updated curriculum vitae of applicants was evaluated for leadership activity attained prior to and following the last year of application to the program. Curricula vitae were assessed for demonstration of national leadership, academic rank, hospital administrative rank, and research experience. On the leadership survey, the graduates of the Leadership Fellows Program scored higher than the applicants in seven of eight categories. The review of the curricula vitae demonstrated that, prior to the Leadership Fellows Program, the leadership fellows were more likely than the applicants to have an academic practice and hold an academic rank. The difference between the two cohorts in administrative rank and leadership of national committees was not significant. Following the program, the leadership fellows were more likely to chair national committees (p < 0.001) and hold leadership positions in their hospitals (p = 0.008). Furthermore, the leadership fellows were more likely to advance in their academic and administrative ranks compared with those who applied to the program and were not accepted. The AAOS Leadership Fellows Program seems to have a positive impact on the leadership competency of its participants. Graduates of the program are more likely to assume leadership positions in national organizations and within their own institutions.

Onset of white striping and progression into wooden breast as defined by myopathic changes underlying Pectoralis major growth. Estimation of growth parameters as predictors for stage of myopathy progression.

PubMed

Griffin, Jacqueline Reedy; Moraes, Luis; Wick, Macdonald; Lilburn, Michael Snell

2018-02-01

The broiler industry has incurred significant economic losses due to two muscle myopathies, white striping (WS) and wooden breast (WB), affecting the Pectoralis major (P. major) of commercial broilers. The present study documented macroscopic changes occurring with age/growth in the P. major and P. minor muscles of commercial broilers from day 2 through day 46 (n = 27/day). Distinct myopathic aberrations observed in both breast muscles corresponded to the onset of WB. These distinct morphological changes were used as determinants in developing a ranking system, defining the ontogeny of WB as the following four stages: (1) WS, (2) petechial epimysium haemorrhages, (3) intramuscular haemorrhages and (4) ischaemia. A cumulative logit proportional odds model was used to relate the rank probabilities with the following growth parameters: body weight, P. major and P. minor weight/yield/length/width/depth. The best-fit model included P. major length/width/depth, P. minor width, P. major and P. minor yield as predictors for rank. Increasing P. major depth, P. minor width and P. major yield increased the odds of falling into higher ranks (more severe myopathy). Conversely, increasing P. major length, P. major width and P. minor yield increased the odds of falling into smaller ranks (less severe myopathy). This study describes the macroscopic changes associated with WB ontogeny in the development of a ranking system and the contribution of growth parameters in the determination of rank (WB severity). Results suggest that physical measurements inherent to selection for high-yielding broiler genotypes are contributing to the occurrence and severity of WS and WB.

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl; Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl; Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Welfare to Work. Most AFDC Training Programs Not Emphasizing Job Placement. Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Finance, U.S. Senate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Health, Education, and Human Services Div.

A study obtained information on examples of county or local Job Opportunities and Basic Skills (JOBS) or JOBS-like programs that emphasize job placement, subsidized employment, or work experience positions for welfare recipients. It also identified the extent to which county JOBS programs nationwide used these employment-focused activities and…

The Rationale and Methodology for Development of a Competency Based Leadership Education and Training Program in the Navy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scanland, Worth; Pepper, Dorothy

Numerous attempts by the U.S. Navy to identify leadership potential within its ranks and to train for such leadership skills have been mostly unsuccessful since the efforts were based upon very subjective perceptions of good leadership qualities. To address this problem, the Navy, with the assistance of Dr. David McClelland, has described a set of…

A comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches that preserve correlation structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schefzik, Roman; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2016-04-01

Despite the fact that ensemble forecasts address the major sources of uncertainty, they exhibit biases and dispersion errors and therefore are known to improve by calibration or statistical post-processing. For instance the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method, also known as non-homogeneous regression approach (Gneiting et al., 2005) is known to strongly improve forecast skill. EMOS is based on fitting and adjusting a parametric probability density function (PDF). However, EMOS and other common post-processing approaches apply to a single weather quantity at a single location for a single look-ahead time. They are therefore unable of taking into account spatial, inter-variable and temporal dependence structures. Recently many research efforts have been invested in designing post-processing methods that resolve this drawback but also in verification methods that enable the detection of dependence structures. New verification methods are applied on two classes of post-processing methods, both generating physically coherent ensembles. A first class uses the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) that starts from EMOS but adjusts the rank structure (Schefzik et al., 2013). The second class is a member-by-member post-processing (MBM) approach that maps each raw ensemble member to a corrected one (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). We compare variants of the EMOS-ECC and MBM classes and highlight a specific theoretical connection between them. All post-processing variants are applied in the context of the ensemble system of the European Centre of Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and compared using multivariate verification tools including the energy score, the variogram score (Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015) and the band depth rank histogram (Thorarinsdottir et al., 2015). Gneiting, Raftery, Westveld, and Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., {133}, 1098-1118. Scheuerer and Hamill, 2015. Variogram-based proper scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities. Mon. Wea. Rev. {143},1321-1334. Schefzik, Thorarinsdottir, Gneiting. Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling. Statistical Science {28},616-640, 2013. Thorarinsdottir, M. Scheuerer, and C. Heinz, 2015. Assessing the calibration of high-dimensional ensemble forecasts using rank histograms, arXiv:1310.0236. Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 807-818.

Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Sande, Brett

2013-01-01

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

High-Preference Strategies and Other Interspersal Procedures for Learners with Disabilities: A Review of the Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinton, Elias; Clees, Tom J.

2015-01-01

Interspersal Procedures (IP) represent a group of interventions that imbed, at varying ratios, requests for individuals to exhibit mastered skills before or within sequences of requests for target skills. Interspersal Procedures include numerous strategies, such as high-probability request sequences, pre-task requests, and high-preference…

Occupational Propensity for Training in a Late Industrial Society: Evidence from Russia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anikin, Vasiliy A.

2017-01-01

What factors best explain the low incidence of skills training in a late industrial society like Russia? This research undertakes a multilevel analysis of the role of occupational structure in the probability of training. The explanatory power of occupation-specific determinants and skills polarization are evaluated, using a representative 2012…

Breaking through the glass ceiling: a survey of promotion rates of graduates of a primary care Faculty Development Fellowship Program.

PubMed

Smith, Mindy A; Barry, Henry C; Dunn, Ruth Ann; Keefe, Carole; Weismantel, David

2006-01-01

Academic promotion has been difficult for women and faculty of minority race. We investigated whether completion of a faculty development fellowship would equalize promotion rates of female and minority graduates to those of male and white graduates. All graduates of the Michigan State University Primary Care Faculty Development Fellowship Program from 1989-1998 were sent a survey in 1999, which included questions about academic status and appointment. We compared application and follow-up survey data by gender and race/ethnicity. Telephone calls were made to nonrespondents. A total of 175 (88%) graduating fellows responded to the follow-up survey. Information on academic rank at entry and follow-up was obtained from 28 of 48 fellows with missing information on promotion. Male and female graduates achieved similar academic promotion at follow-up, but there was a trend toward lower promotion rates for minority faculty graduates compared to white graduates. In the multivariate analysis, however, only age, years in rank, initial rank, and type of appointment (academic versus clinical) were significant factors for promotion. Academic advancement is multifactorial and appears most related to time in rank, stage of life, and career choice. Faculty development programs may be most useful in providing skill development and career counseling.

Gravitational wave hotspots: Ranking potential locations of single-source gravitational wave emission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simon, Joseph; Polin, Abigail; Lommen, Andrea

2014-03-20

The steadily improving sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems in the nearby universe will be detectable sometime during the next decade. Currently, PTAs assume an equal probability of detection from every sky position, but as evidence grows for a non-isotropic distribution of sources, is there a most likely sky position for a detectable single source of GWs? In this paper, a collection of Galactic catalogs is used to calculate various metrics related to the detectability of a single GW source resolvable above a GW background, assuming that everymore » galaxy has the same probability of containing an SMBHB. Our analyses of these data reveal small probabilities that one of these sources is currently in the PTA band, but as sensitivity is improved regions of consistent probability density are found in predictable locations, specifically around local galaxy clusters.« less

Algorithmic universality in F-theory compactifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halverson, James; Long, Cody; Sung, Benjamin

2017-12-01

We study universality of geometric gauge sectors in the string landscape in the context of F-theory compactifications. A finite time construction algorithm is presented for 4/3 ×2.96 ×10755 F-theory geometries that are connected by a network of topological transitions in a connected moduli space. High probability geometric assumptions uncover universal structures in the ensemble without explicitly constructing it. For example, non-Higgsable clusters of seven-branes with intricate gauge sectors occur with a probability above 1 - 1.01 ×10-755 , and the geometric gauge group rank is above 160 with probability 0.999995. In the latter case there are at least 10 E8 factors, the structure of which fixes the gauge groups on certain nearby seven-branes. Visible sectors may arise from E6 or S U (3 ) seven-branes, which occur in certain random samples with probability ≃1 /200 .

Lessons learned hiring HMO medical directors.

PubMed

Ottensmeyer, D J; Key, M K

1991-01-01

A medical director has enormous influence on medical cost and quality in managed care organizations. Little empirical work has been done on the attributes of an effective HMO medical director. The survey discussed in this article sought to examine those desirable traits from the perspective of medical directors who have risen in the ranks to become employers of medical directors. Mailed questionnaires asked 30 experts to rate skills and personality qualities based on what they would look for in a prospective hire. The factors that emerged as significant were communication and interpersonal skills, clinical credibility, ego strength, concern about quality, motivation, data orientation, and leadership qualities, along with organizational/systemic variables. Implications for hiring and physician education are drawn.

The training, careers, and work of Ph.D. physical scientists: Not simply academic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Pedersen-Gallegos, Liane; Riegle-Crumb, Catherine

2002-11-01

We present an in-depth portrait of the training, careers, and work of recent Ph.D. physical scientists. Use of specialized training varies widely, with about half often using knowledge of their Ph.D. specialty area in their jobs. The use of specialized training does not, however, correlate with job satisfaction. In this and other important measures, there are relatively few differences between "academics" and "nonacademics." Important job skills for all employment sectors include writing, oral presentation, management, data analysis, designing projects, critical thinking, and working in an interdisciplinary context. Rankings given by respondents of graduate training in some of these skill areas were significantly lower than the importance of these skills in the workplace. We also found that the rated quality of graduate training varies relatively little by department or advisor. Finally, although nonacademic aspirations among graduate students are fairly common, these do not appear to be well supported while in graduate school.

Promoting children's health: Toward a consensus statement on food literacy.

PubMed

Truman, Emily; Raine, Kim; Mrklas, Kelly; Prowse, Rachel; Carruthers Den Hoed, Rebecca; Watson-Jarvis, Katherine; Loewen, Jewel; Gorham, Megan; Ricciardi, Carolin; Tyminski, Sheila; Elliott, Charlene

2017-06-16

This consensus statement reflects the views of a diverse group of stakeholders convened to explore the concept of "food literacy" as it relates to children's health. Evidence-based conceptions of food literacy are needed in light of the term's popularity in health promotion and educational interventions designed to increase food skills and knowledge that contribute to overall health. Informed by a comprehensive scoping review that identified seven main themes of food literacy, meeting participants ranked those themes in terms of importance. Discussions highlighted two key points in conceptualizing food literacy: the need to recognize varying food skill and knowledge levels, and the need to recognize critical food contexts. From these discussions, meeting participants created two working definitions of food literacy, as well as the alternative conception of "radical food literacy". We conclude that multiple literacies in relation to food skills and knowledge are needed, and underline the importance of ongoing dialogue in this emergent area of research.

Ranks of the Poor Swell with Women and Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connors, John H.

1987-01-01

The dramatic increase in poverty during the first half of the 1980s hit women and children the hardest. Regarding this fact, the following are discussed: (1) economic changes since 1960; (2) the extent of the problem; (3) reasons for the economic vulnerability of women and children; (4) curtailment of social services; and (5) probable future…

Optimal body balance disturbance tolerance skills as a methodological basis for selection of firefighters to solve difficult rescue tasks.

PubMed

Jagiełło, Władysław; Wójcicki, Zbigniew; Barczyński, Bartłomiej J; Litwiniuk, Artur; Kalina, Roman Maciej

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is the methodology of optimal choice of firefighters to solve difficult rescue tasks. 27 firefighters were analyzed: aged from 22-50 years of age, and with 2-27 years of work experience. Body balance disturbance tolerance skills (BBDTS) measured by the 'Rotational Test' (RT) and time of transition (back and forth) on a 4 meter beam located 3 meters above the ground, was the criterion for simulation of a rescue task (SRT). RT and SRT were carried out first in a sports tracksuit and then in protective clothing. A total of 4 results of the RT and SRT is the substantive base of the 4 rankings. The correlation of the RT and SRT results with 3 criteria for estimating BBDTS and 2 categories ranged from 0.478 (p<0.01) - 0.884 (p<0.01) and the results of SRT 0.911 (p<0.01). The basic ranking very highly correlated indicators of SRT (0.860 and 0.844), while the 6 indicators of RT only 2 (0.396 and 0.381; p<0.05). There was no correlation between the results of the RT and SRT, but there was an important partial correlation of these variables, but only then was the effect stabilized. The Rotational Test is a simple and easy to use tool for measuring body balance disturbance tolerance skills. However, the BBDTS typology is an accurate criteria for forecasting on this basis, including the results of accurate motor simulations, and the periodic ability of firefighters to solve the most difficult rescue tasks.

Identifying online user reputation of user-object bipartite networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao-Lu; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yang, Kai; Guo, Qiang; Han, Jing-Ti

2017-02-01

Identifying online user reputation based on the rating information of the user-object bipartite networks is important for understanding online user collective behaviors. Based on the Bayesian analysis, we present a parameter-free algorithm for ranking online user reputation, where the user reputation is calculated based on the probability that their ratings are consistent with the main part of all user opinions. The experimental results show that the AUC values of the presented algorithm could reach 0.8929 and 0.8483 for the MovieLens and Netflix data sets, respectively, which is better than the results generated by the CR and IARR methods. Furthermore, the experimental results for different user groups indicate that the presented algorithm outperforms the iterative ranking methods in both ranking accuracy and computation complexity. Moreover, the results for the synthetic networks show that the computation complexity of the presented algorithm is a linear function of the network size, which suggests that the presented algorithm is very effective and efficient for the large scale dynamic online systems.

Influence of protonation, tautomeric, and stereoisomeric states on protein-ligand docking results.

PubMed

ten Brink, Tim; Exner, Thomas E

2009-06-01

In this work, we present a systematical investigation of the influence of ligand protonation states, stereoisomers, and tautomers on results obtained with the two protein-ligand docking programs GOLD and PLANTS. These different states were generated with a fully automated tool, called SPORES (Structure PrOtonation and Recognition System). First, the most probable protonations, as defined by this rule based system, were compared to the ones stored in the well-known, manually revised CCDC/ASTEX data set. Then, to investigate the influence of the ligand protonation state on the docking results, different protonation states were created. Redocking and virtual screening experiments were conducted demonstrating that both docking programs have problems in identifying the correct protomer for each complex. Therefore, a preselection of plausible protomers or the improvement of the scoring functions concerning their ability to rank different molecules/states is needed. Additionally, ligand stereoisomers were tested for a subset of the CCDC/ASTEX set, showing similar problems regarding the ranking of these stereoisomers as the ranking of the protomers.

Efficacy and safety of medical therapy for low bone mineral density in patients with Crohn disease

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xiaojing; Zhou, Changcheng; Chen, Han; Ma, Jingjing; Zhu, Yunjuan; Wang, Peixue; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Haiqin; Zhang, Hongjie

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Low bone mineral density (BMD) is a frequent complication of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), particularly in patients with Crohn disease (CD). The aim of our study is to determine the efficacy and safety of different drugs used to treat low BMD in patients with CD. Methods: PUBMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for eligible studies. A random-effects model within a Bayesian framework was applied to compare treatment effects as standardized mean difference (SMD) with their corresponding 95% credible interval (CrI), while odds ratio (OR) was applied to compare adverse events with 95% CrI. The surface under the cumulative ranking area (SUCRA) was calculated to make the ranking of the treatments for outcomes. Results: Twelve randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were eligible. Compared with placebo, zoledronate (SMDs 2.74, 95% CrI 1.36–4.11) and sodium-fluoride (SMDs 1.23, 95% CrI 0.19–2.26) revealed statistical significance in increasing lumbar spine BMD (LSBMD). According to SUCRA ranking, zoledronate (SUCRA = 2.5%) might have the highest probability to be the best treatment for increasing LSBMD in CD patients among all agents, followed by sodium-fluoride (27%). For safety assessment, the incidence of adverse events (AEs) demonstrated no statistical difference between agents and placebo. The corresponding SUCRA values indicated that risedronate (SUCRA = 77%) might be the most safe medicine for low BMD in CD patients and alendronate ranked the worst (SUCRA = 16%). Conclusions: Zoledronate might have the highest probability to be the best therapeutic strategy for increasing LSBMD. For the safety assessment, risedronate showed the greatest trend to decrease the risk of AEs. In the future, more RCTs with higher qualities are needed to make head-to-head comparison between 2 or more treatments. PMID:28296781

Evaluating postdoctoral dental candidates: assessing the need and recommendations for a national qualifying examination.

PubMed

Brodie, Abby J; Crow, Heidi C; Eber, Robert M; Handysides, Robert; Holexa, Roy; Kiat-amnuay, Sudarat; Spallek, Heiko

2011-06-01

Increasingly, U.S. dental schools report pass/fail grades and do not rank students. In addition, the Joint Commission on National Dental Examinations will report National Board Dental Examination (NBDE) scores as pass/fail after January 1, 2012. This article discusses how these changes will force postdoctoral dental program directors to modify how they assess candidates and how noncognitive evaluations might enhance those assessments. The authors propose developing a national qualifying examination for postdoctoral dental programs that will measure knowledge, decision making, and noncognitive traits including empathy, self-confidence, integrity, and emotional intelligence. Without NBDE scores, class rank, and GPA as a basis for decision making, a single national qualifying examination would assist postdoctoral programs in selecting high-quality candidates based on knowledge, critical thinking skills, and noncognitive traits.

Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quirein, J.

1972-01-01

One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.

Validity and reliability of an application review process using dedicated reviewers in one stage of a multi-stage admissions model.

PubMed

Zeeman, Jacqueline M; McLaughlin, Jacqueline E; Cox, Wendy C

2017-11-01

With increased emphasis placed on non-academic skills in the workplace, a need exists to identify an admissions process that evaluates these skills. This study assessed the validity and reliability of an application review process involving three dedicated application reviewers in a multi-stage admissions model. A multi-stage admissions model was utilized during the 2014-2015 admissions cycle. After advancing through the academic review, each application was independently reviewed by two dedicated application reviewers utilizing a six-construct rubric (written communication, extracurricular and community service activities, leadership experience, pharmacy career appreciation, research experience, and resiliency). Rubric scores were extrapolated to a three-tier ranking to select candidates for on-site interviews. Kappa statistics were used to assess interrater reliability. A three-facet Many-Facet Rasch Model (MFRM) determined reviewer severity, candidate suitability, and rubric construct difficulty. The kappa statistic for candidates' tier rank score (n = 388 candidates) was 0.692 with a perfect agreement frequency of 84.3%. There was substantial interrater reliability between reviewers for the tier ranking (kappa: 0.654-0.710). Highest construct agreement occurred in written communication (kappa: 0.924-0.984). A three-facet MFRM analysis explained 36.9% of variance in the ratings, with 0.06% reflecting application reviewer scoring patterns (i.e., severity or leniency), 22.8% reflecting candidate suitability, and 14.1% reflecting construct difficulty. Utilization of dedicated application reviewers and a defined tiered rubric provided a valid and reliable method to effectively evaluate candidates during the application review process. These analyses provide insight into opportunities for improving the application review process among schools and colleges of pharmacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immediate effects after stochastic resonance whole-body vibration on physical performance on frail elderly for skilling-up training: a blind cross-over randomised pilot study.

PubMed

Rogan, Slavko; Schmidtbleicher, Dietmar; Radlinger, Lorenz

2014-10-01

This pilot study examined the feasibility outcome recruitment, safety and compliance of the investigation for stochastic resonance whole-body vibration (SR-WBV) training. Another aim was to evaluate the effect size of one SR-WBV intervention session on Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), Expanded Timed Get Up-and-Go (ETGUG), isometric maximal voluntary contraction (IMVC) and rate of force development (IRFD) and chair rising (CR). Randomised double-blinded controlled cross-over pilot study. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment, safety and compliance. For secondary outcomes, SPPB, ETGUG, IMVC, IRFD and CR were measured before and 2-min after intervention. Nonparametric Rank-Order Tests of Puri and Sen L Statistics to Ranked Data were proposed. Wilcoxon signed-ranked tests were used to analyse the differences after SR-WBV intervention and sham intervention. Treatment effects between the interventions were compared by a Mann-Whitney U test. Among 24 eligible frail elderly, 12 agreed to participate and 3 drop out. The adherence was 15 of 24 intervention sessions. For secondary outcome, effect sizes (ES) for SR-WBV intervention on SPPB, ETGUG and CR were determined. This pilot study indicate that the training protocol used in this form for frail elderly individuals is feasible but with modification due to the fact that not all defined feasibility outcomes target was met. SR-WBV with 6 Hz, noise level 4 shows benefit improvements on SPPB (ES 0.52), ETGUG (part sit-to-stand movement: ES 0.81; total time: ES 0.85) and CR (ES 0.66). Further research is desired to determine whether a new adapted training protocol is necessary for SR-WBV in the "skilling up" phase in frail elderly individuals.

German dental faculty attitudes towards computer-assisted learning and their correlation with personal and professional profiles.

PubMed

Welk, A; Rosin, M; Seyer, D; Splieth, C; Siemer, M; Meyer, G

2005-08-01

Compared with its potential, computer technology use is still lacking in medical/dental education. To investigate the primary advantages of computer-assisted learning (CAL) systems in German dental education, as well as the reasons for their relatively low degree of use correlated with personal and professional profiles of respondents. A questionnaire was mailed to heads in the departments of conservative dentistry and prosthetic dentistry in all dental schools in Germany. Besides investigating the advantages and barriers to the use of computer technology, the questionnaire also contained questions regarding each respondent's gender, age, academic rank, experience in academia and computer skills. The response rate to the questionnaire was 90% (112 of 125). The results indicated a distinct discrepancy between the desire for and actual occurrence of lectures, seminars, etc. to instruct students in ways to search for and acquire knowledge, especially using computer technology. The highest-ranked advantages of CAL systems in order, as seen by respondents, were the possibilities for individual learning, increased motivation, and both objective theoretical tests and practical tests. The highest-ranked reasons for the low degree of usage of CAL systems in order were the inability to finance, followed equally by a lack of studies of CAL and poor cost-advantage ratio, and too much effort required to integrate CAL into the curriculum. Moreover, the higher the computer skills of the respondents, the more they noted insufficient quality of CAL systems (r = 0.200, P = 0.035) and content differences from their own dental faculty's expert opinions (r = 0.228, P = 0.016) as reasons for low use. The correlations of the attitudes towards CAL with the personal and professional profiles showed not only statistical significant reinforcements of, but also interesting deviations from, the average responses.

Multiple morbidity combinations impact on medical expenditures among older adults.

PubMed

Chi, Mei-ju; Lee, Cheng-yi; Wu, Shwu-chong

2011-01-01

This study aims to explore the medical needs of patients who have different combinations of multiple chronic diseases in order to improve care strategy for chronic patients. This study was based on a national probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling to older adults over 50 years old. We collaborated the files of the 2000-2001 health insurance claims and selected 8 types of common chronic diseases among seniors, for the discussion of multiple combinations of chronic diseases, including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, dementia, cancer, arthritis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Among the NHI users, there are 50.6% of the cases suffering from at least one chronic disease, 27.3% suffering from two types of chronic diseases and above. From possible combinations of eight common chronic diseases, it is found hypertension has the highest prevalence rate (7.5%); arthritis ranks the next (6.2%); the combination of hypertension and heart disease ranks the third (3.4%). In the 22 types of major chronic disease clusters, the average total medical expense for people who have five or more chronic diseases ranks the highest, USD 4465; the combination of hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and arthritis ranks the next, USD 2703; the combination of hypertension, diabetes, and heart disease ranks the third, USD 2550; cancer only ranks the fourth, USD 2487. Our study may provide statistical data concerning co-morbidity among older adults and their medical needs. Through our analysis, the major population that exhausts the medical resources may be discovered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Homeland Security Communities of Learning: Developing a Strategy for Training and Collaboration

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

education. LCMS allow subject matter experts, with little technology skills to develop curriculum, deliver courses, and monitor e- learning. Distance...occurring in year seven and therefore it has zero probability of occurring in the first five years. The probability of Ev-2 occurring between years 7 and

Just-in-Time Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollins, Suzy Pepper

2016-01-01

Most students have gaps in their background knowledge and basic skills-gaps that can stand in the way of learning new concepts. For example, a student may be excited about studying probability--until he realizes that today's lesson on probability will require him to use fractions. As his brain searches frantically for his dim recollection of the…

Implementing Inquiry-Based Learning and Examining the Effects in Junior College Probability Lessons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chong, Jessie Siew Yin; Chong, Maureen Siew Fang; Shahrill, Masitah; Abdullah, Nor Azura

2017-01-01

This study examined how Year 12 students use their inquiry skills in solving conditional probability questions by means of Inquiry-Based Learning application. The participants consisted of 66 students of similar academic abilities in Mathematics, selected from three classes, along with their respective teachers. Observational rubric and lesson…

Influence of Phonotactic Probability/Neighbourhood Density on Lexical Learning in Late Talkers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Schwartz, Richard G.; Shafer, Valerie L.; Marton, Klara

2013-01-01

Background: Toddlers who are late talkers demonstrate delays in phonological and lexical skills. However, the influence of phonological factors on lexical acquisition in toddlers who are late talkers has not been examined directly. Aims: To examine the influence of phonotactic probability/neighbourhood density on word learning in toddlers who were…

DCMDN: Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Isanto, Antonio; Polsterer, Kai Lars

2017-09-01

Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network (DCMDN) estimates probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data by combining a version of a deep convolutional network with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) are applied as performance criteria. DCMDN is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, e.g. galaxies, quasars or stars and renders pre-classification of objects and feature extraction unnecessary; the method is extremely general and allows the solving of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, such as estimating metallicity or star formation rate in galaxies.

Practical implications of pre-employment nurse assessments.

PubMed

Kuthy, James E; Ramon, Cheree; Gonzalez, Ronald; Biddle, Dan A

2013-01-01

Hiring nurses is a difficult task that can have serious repercussions for medical facilities. If nurses without proper skills are hired, patients can suffer from insufficient quality of care and potentially life-threatening conditions. Nurse applicants' technical knowledge is extremely important to avoid negative outcomes; however, there are soft skills that factor into their success, such as bedside manner, personality, communication, and decision making. In order for medical facilities to select and maintain high-performing nurse staff, hiring managers must incorporate evaluations for these types of skills in their hiring process. The current study focused on using content/criterion-related validation design to create assessments by which nurse applicants can be evaluated for both technical knowledge/skills and soft skills. The study included participation of more than 876 nursing staff members. To rank applicants on divergent skills, 3 assessment types were investigated, resulting in the creation of an assessment with 3 components. The clinical, situational, and behavioral components that were created measure applicants' job knowledge, interpersonal competency in medical facility-related situations, and aspects of personality and behavior, respectively. Results indicate that using the assessment can predict 45% of a nurse applicant's future job performance. Practical implications include hiring and maintaining a higher quality of nurses and decreased hiring costs.

Implementation and evaluation of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine leadership program for women faculty.

PubMed

Levine, Rachel B; González-Fernández, Marlís; Bodurtha, Joann; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Fivush, Barbara

2015-05-01

Women continue to be underrepresented in top leadership roles in academic medicine. Leadership training programs for women are designed to enhance women's leadership skills and confidence and increase overall leadership diversity. The authors present a description and evaluation of a longitudinal, cohort-based, experiential leadership program for women faculty at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. We compared pre- and post-program self-assessed ratings of 11 leadership skills and specific negotiation behaviors from 3 cohorts of leadership program participants (n=134) from 2010 to 2013. Women reported significant improvements in skills across 11 domains with the exceptions of 2 domains, Public Speaking and Working in Teams, both of which received high scores in the pre-program assessment. The greatest improvement in rankings occurred within the domain of negotiation skills. Although women reported an increase in their negotiation skills, we were not able to demonstrate an increase in the number of times that women negotiated for salary, space, or promotion following participation in the program. The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine Leadership Program for Women Faculty has demonstrable value for the professional development of participants and addresses institutional strategies to enhance leadership diversity and the advancement of women.

Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meißner, Dennis; Klein, Bastian; Ionita, Monica

2017-12-01

Traditionally, navigation-related forecasts in central Europe cover short- to medium-range lead times linked to the travel times of vessels to pass the main waterway bottlenecks leaving the loading ports. Without doubt, this aspect is still essential for navigational users, but in light of the growing political intention to use the free capacity of the inland waterway transport in Europe, additional lead time supporting strategic decisions is more and more in demand. However, no such predictions offering extended lead times of several weeks up to several months currently exist for considerable parts of the European waterway network. This paper describes the set-up of a monthly to seasonal forecasting system for the German stretches of the international waterways of the Rhine, Danube and Elbe rivers. Two competitive forecast approaches have been implemented: the dynamical set-up forces a hydrological model with post-processed outputs from ECMWF general circulation model System 4, whereas the statistical approach is based on the empirical relationship (teleconnection) of global oceanic, climate and regional hydro-meteorological data with river flows. The performance of both forecast methods is evaluated in relation to the climatological forecast (ensemble of historical streamflow) and the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP, ensemble based on historical meteorology) using common performance indicators (correlation coefficient; mean absolute error, skill score; mean squared error, skill score; and continuous ranked probability, skill score) and an impact-based evaluation quantifying the potential economic gain. The following four key findings result from this study: (1) as former studies for other regions of central Europe indicate, the accuracy and/or skill of the meteorological forcing used has a larger effect than the quality of initial hydrological conditions for relevant stations along the German waterways. (2) Despite the predictive limitations on longer lead times in central Europe, this study reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of streamflow on monthly up to seasonal timescales along the Rhine, upper Danube and Elbe waterways, and the Elbe achieves the highest skill and economic value. (3) The more physically based and the statistical approach are able to improve the predictive skills and economic value compared to climatology and the ESP approach. The specific forecast skill highly depends on the forecast location, the lead time and the season. (4) Currently, the statistical approach seems to be most skilful for the three waterways investigated. The lagged relationship between the monthly and/or seasonal streamflow and the climatic and/or oceanic variables vary between 1 month (e.g. local precipitation, temperature and soil moisture) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Besides focusing on improving the forecast methodology, especially by combining the individual approaches, the focus is on developing useful forecast products on monthly to seasonal timescales for waterway transport and to operationalize the related forecasting service.

A Model for the Transfer of Perceptual-Motor Skill Learning in Human Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosalie, Simon M.; Muller, Sean

2012-01-01

This paper presents a preliminary model that outlines the mechanisms underlying the transfer of perceptual-motor skill learning in sport and everyday tasks. Perceptual-motor behavior is motivated by performance demands and evolves over time to increase the probability of success through adaptation. Performance demands at the time of an event…

Detecting Native Language Group Differences at the Subskills Level of Reading: A Differential Skill Functioning Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Hongli; Suen, Hoi K.

2013-01-01

Differential skill functioning (DSF) exists when examinees from different groups have different probabilities of successful performance in a certain subskill underlying the measured construct, given that they have the same ability on the overall construct. Using a DSF approach, this study examined the differences between two native language…

Skill-Related Uncertainty and Expected Value in 5- to 7-Year-Olds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayless, Sarah; Schlottmann, Anne

2010-01-01

Studies using an Information Integration approach have shown that children from four years have a good intuitive understanding of probability and expected value. Experience of skill-related uncertainty may provide one naturalistic opportunity to develop this intuitive understanding. To test the viability of this view, 16 5- and 16 7-year-olds…

Improving Communication Skills: A Course for Academic Medical Center Surgery Residents and Faculty.

PubMed

Raper, Steven E; Gupta, Meera; Okusanya, Olugbenga; Morris, Jon B

2015-01-01

To improve physician/patient communication and familiarize surgeons with contemporary skills for and metrics assessing communication, courses were developed to provide academic general surgery residents and faculty with a toolkit of information, behaviors, and specific techniques. If academic faculty are expected to mentor residents in communication and residents are expected to learn good communication skills, then both should have the necessary education to accomplish such a goal. Didactic lectures introduced current concepts of physician-patient communication including information on better patient care, fewer malpractice suits, and the move toward transparency of communication metrics. Next, course participants viewed and critiqued "Surgi-Drama" videos, with actors simulating "before" and "after" physician-patient communication scenarios. Finally, participants were provided with a "toolkit" of techniques for improving physician-patient communication including "2-3-4"-a semiscripted short communication tool residents and other physicians can use in patient encounters-and a number of other acronymic approaches. Each participant was asked to complete an anonymous evaluation to assess course content satisfaction. Overall, 86% of residents participated (68/79), with a 52% response rate (35/68) for the evaluation tool. Overall, 88% of faculty participated (84/96), with an 84% response rate (71/84). Residents voiced satisfaction with all domains. For faculty, satisfaction was quantitatively confirmed (Likert score 4 or 5) in 4 of 7 domains, with the highest satisfaction in "communication of goals" and "understanding of the HCAHPS metric." The percentage of "top box" Doctor Communication Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) scores and national percentile ranking showed a sustained increase more than 1 and 2 years from the dates of the courses. The assessment of communication skills is increasing in importance in the practice of surgery. A course in communication, as developed here, quantitatively confirms the effectiveness of this approach to teaching communication skills as well as identifying areas for improvement. Such a course was part of a plan to increase the percentage of "top box" HCAHPS scores and percentile rankings. Faculty can impart the skills gained from such a course to residents attempting to successfully navigate the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) Milestones and future careers as practicing surgeons. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining Risk - How to Evaluate the Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copping, A. E.; Blake, K.; Zdanski, L.

2011-12-01

As marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development projects progress towards early deployments in the U.S., the process of determining the risks to aquatic animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes from these engineered systems continues to be a significant barrier to efficient siting and permitting. Understanding the risk of MHK installations requires that the two elements of risk - consequence and probability - be evaluated. However, standard risk assessment methodologies are not easily applied to MHK interactions with marine and riverine environment as there are few data that describe the interaction of stressors (MHK devices, anchors, foundations, mooring lines and power cables) and receptors (aquatic animals, habitats and ecosystem processes). The number of possible combinations and permutations of stressors and receptors in MHK systems is large: there are many different technologies designed to harvest energy from the tides, waves and flowing rivers; each device is planned for a specific waterbody that supports an endemic ecosystem of animals and habitats, tied together by specific physical and chemical processes. With few appropriate analogue industries in the oceans and rivers, little information on the effects of these technologies on the living world is available. Similarly, without robust data sets of interactions, mathematical probability models are difficult to apply. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists are working with MHK developers, researchers, engineers, and regulators to rank the consequences of planned MHK projects on living systems, and exploring alternative methodologies to estimate probabilities of these encounters. This paper will present the results of ERES, the Environmental Risk Evaluation System, which has been used to rank consequences for major animal groups and habitats for five MHK projects that are in advanced stages of development and/or early commercial deployment. Probability analyses have been performed for high priority stressor/receptor interactions where data are adaptable from other industries. In addition, a methodology for evaluating the probability of encounter, and therefore risk, to an endangered marine mammal from tidal turbine blades will be presented.

Medical students' perceptions of their housestaffs' ability to teach physical examination skills.

PubMed

Smith, Miriam A; Gertler, Tracy; Freeman, Katherine

2003-01-01

To evaluate the amount of time housestaff spent at the bedside on physical examination skills with third-year medical students and whether housestaff enhanced physical examination skills. All Albert Einstein College of Medicine students who completed the third-year medicine inpatient clerkship at one of five participating sites evaluated housestaff (interns and residents) with whom they spent at least ten days. The students quantified the amount of time housestaff spent with them at the bedside and used a modified five-point Likert scale to evaluate housestaff's enhancement of students' physical examination skills. Data were analyzed separately for interns, but pooled for residents (years two and three). Differences between groups were tested using Wilcoxon rank-sum and by Mantel-Haenszel chi-square tests. Totals of 191 responses for interns and 166 responses for residents were collected from October 1999 to October 2000. Fifteen (8%) of the intern group and 59 (36%) of the resident group spent no time at the bedside (p <.0001). Students were most satisfied with enhancement of pulmonary, cardiovascular, and gastrointestinal skills and least satisfied with enhancement of ENT, eye, and genitourinary skills (p <.0001). Interns spent more time with students than did residents. Almost one third of the residents spent no time on physical examination skills with students. Training programs should re-emphasize the importance of housestaff's teaching at the bedside and address areas of deficiency.

The Dutch motor skills assessment as tool for talent development in table tennis: a reproducibility and validity study.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Nijhuis-Van Der Sanden, Maria W G; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Oosterveld, Frits G J

2015-01-01

A motor skills assessment could be helpful in talent development by estimating essential perceptuo-motor skills of young players, which are considered requisite to develop excellent technical and tactical qualities. The Netherlands Table Tennis Association uses a motor skills assessment in their talent development programme consisting of eight items measuring perceptuo-motor skills specific to table tennis under varying conditions. This study aimed to investigate this assessment regarding its reproducibility, internal consistency, underlying dimensions and concurrent validity in 113 young table tennis players (6-10 years). Intraclass correlation coefficients of six test items met the criteria of 0.7 with coefficients of variation between 3% and 8%. Cronbach's alpha valued 0.853 for internal consistency. The principal components analysis distinguished two conceptually meaningful factors: "ball control" and "gross motor function." Concurrent validity analyses demonstrated moderate associations between the motor skills assessment's results and national ranking; boys r = -0.53 (P < 0.001) and girls r = -0.45 (P = 0.015). In conclusion, this evaluation demonstrated six test items with acceptable reproducibility, good internal consistency and good prospects for validity. Two test items need revision to upgrade reproducibility. Since the motor skills assessment seems to be a reproducible, objective part of a talent development programme, more longitudinal studies are required to investigate its predictive validity.

Emergency medicine resident education in palliative care: a needs assessment.

PubMed

Lamba, Sangeeta; Pound, Amy; Rella, Joseph G; Compton, Scott

2012-05-01

Hospice and Palliative Medicine is a newly designated subspecialty of Emergency Medicine (EM). As yet, no well defined palliative care (PC) models for education or training exist. A needs assessment is the first step towards developing a curriculum. To characterize emergency physicians' (EP) perceived educational and formal training needs for PC related skills. All EM residents and faculty of one academic facility were asked to complete an anonymous needs-assessment survey. Participants were asked to rank statements related to attitudes about PC and rate their formal training and knowledge in 10 aspects of PC using a 5-point Likert-scale. EPs also ranked 4 learning modalities in order of preference and 12 PC educational topics in order of perceived importance in an EM curriculum. Ninety-three percent (42/45) of eligible participants completed the survey (28 residents, 14 faculty). Respondents agreed/strongly agreed that PC skills are an important competence for EM (88%, 37/42) and that they would "like to have more training/education in PC" (79%, 33/42). Respondents also disagreed/strongly disagreed with the statement that "PC consult is called when no more can be done for the patient" (90%, 38/42). Important PC topics identified were pain management, discussing code status, and management of dyspnea and other symptoms in terminal illness. Bedside teaching was listed as the preferred learning modality. EM residents reported minimal training in pain management (46%, 13/28), managing hospice patients (54%, 15/28), withdrawal/withholding life support (54%, 15/28), and managing the imminently dying (43%, 12/28). There was no consistent, significant improvement reported in any domain as training and experience progressed from PGY (postgraduate year) 1 to PGY 4 to attending physician. EPs view PC skills as important for EM practice and report that they are not yet adequately educated and trained in providing PC. Domains of particular interest and targeted areas for PC skills training for EPs may include managing hospice patients, withdrawal of life support, prognostication, and pain management.

Motivational Factors of Student Nurse Athletes Attributing to Academic Success.

PubMed

Forst, Kimberly A

Student nurse athletes experience difficulties achieving academic success in nursing programs. The purpose of this study was to identify facilitators, barriers, and motivators of student nurse athletes that attribute to their academic success. Athletes ranked time management and prioritization as critical skills to success in the nursing program. This study reinforced the importance of academic support services for student nurse athletes to assist in their academic success.

Exploratory analysis of normative performance on the UCSD Performance-Based Skills Assessment-Brief.

PubMed

Vella, Lea; Patterson, Thomas L; Harvey, Philip D; McClure, Margaret McNamara; Mausbach, Brent T; Taylor, Michael J; Twamley, Elizabeth W

2017-10-01

The UCSD Performance-Based Skills Assessment (UPSA) is a performance-based measure of functional capacity. The brief, two-domain (finance and communication ability) version of the assessment (UPSA-B) is now widely used in both clinical research and treatment trials. To date, research has not examined possible demographic-UPSA-B relationships within a non-psychiatric population. We aimed to produce and describe preliminary normative scores for the UPSA-B over a full range of ages and educational attainment. The finance and communication subscales of the UPSA were administered to 190 healthy participants in the context of three separate studies. These data were combined to examine the effects of age, sex, and educational attainment on the UPSA-B domain and total scores. Fractional polynomial regression was used to compute demographically-corrected T-scores for the UPSA-B total score, and percentile rank conversion was used for the two subscales. Age and education both had significant non-linear effects on the UPSA-B total score. The finance subscale was significantly related to both gender and years of education, whereas the communication subscale was not significantly related to any of the demographic characteristics. Demographically corrected T-scores and percentile ranks for UPSA-B scores are now available for use in clinical research. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Reliability of the ecSatter Inventory as a tool to measure eating competence.

PubMed

Stotts, Jodi L; Lohse, Barbara

2007-01-01

To examine the reliability of the ecSatter Inventory (ecSI), a measure of eating competence. Self-report questionnaires were administered in person or by mail. Retesting occurred 2 to 6 weeks after completion of the first questionnaire. Both administrations of the questionnaire were completed by 259 participants who were mostly food secure, white females with some college education; mean age was 26.9 +/- 10.4 years. Test-retest reliability and internal consistency. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients to estimate test-retest reliability and Cronbach alpha coefficients to estimate internal consistency. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient for ecSI total score was 0.68; subscale coefficients were 0.70 for eating attitudes, 0.70 for contextual skills, 0.65 for food acceptance, and 0.52 for internal regulation. Cronbach alpha coefficient for ecSI total score was 0.77. Subscale alphas coefficients were 0.80 for eating attitudes, 0.69 for contextual skills, 0.68 for food acceptance, and 0.66 for internal regulation. This study provides psychometric evidence about the reliability of ecSI as a measure of eating competence in this sample. Although some ecSI items may require revision, results suggest that the instrument may be used to evaluate nutrition education designed to improve eating competence.

Scalable Failure Masking for Stencil Computations using Ghost Region Expansion and Cell to Rank Remapping

DOE PAGES

Gamell, Marc; Teranishi, Keita; Kolla, Hemanth; ...

2017-10-26

In order to achieve exascale systems, application resilience needs to be addressed. Some programming models, such as task-DAG (directed acyclic graphs) architectures, currently embed resilience features whereas traditional SPMD (single program, multiple data) and message-passing models do not. Since a large part of the community's code base follows the latter models, it is still required to take advantage of application characteristics to minimize the overheads of fault tolerance. To that end, this paper explores how recovering from hard process/node failures in a local manner is a natural approach for certain applications to obtain resilience at lower costs in faulty environments.more » In particular, this paper targets enabling online, semitransparent local recovery for stencil computations on current leadership-class systems as well as presents programming support and scalable runtime mechanisms. Also described and demonstrated in this paper is the effect of failure masking, which allows the effective reduction of impact on total time to solution due to multiple failures. Furthermore, we discuss, implement, and evaluate ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping to increase the probability of failure masking. To conclude, this paper shows the integration of all aforementioned mechanisms with the S3D combustion simulation through an experimental demonstration (using the Titan system) of the ability to tolerate high failure rates (i.e., node failures every five seconds) with low overhead while sustaining performance at large scales. In addition, this demonstration also displays the failure masking probability increase resulting from the combination of both ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping.« less

Scalable Failure Masking for Stencil Computations using Ghost Region Expansion and Cell to Rank Remapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamell, Marc; Teranishi, Keita; Kolla, Hemanth

In order to achieve exascale systems, application resilience needs to be addressed. Some programming models, such as task-DAG (directed acyclic graphs) architectures, currently embed resilience features whereas traditional SPMD (single program, multiple data) and message-passing models do not. Since a large part of the community's code base follows the latter models, it is still required to take advantage of application characteristics to minimize the overheads of fault tolerance. To that end, this paper explores how recovering from hard process/node failures in a local manner is a natural approach for certain applications to obtain resilience at lower costs in faulty environments.more » In particular, this paper targets enabling online, semitransparent local recovery for stencil computations on current leadership-class systems as well as presents programming support and scalable runtime mechanisms. Also described and demonstrated in this paper is the effect of failure masking, which allows the effective reduction of impact on total time to solution due to multiple failures. Furthermore, we discuss, implement, and evaluate ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping to increase the probability of failure masking. To conclude, this paper shows the integration of all aforementioned mechanisms with the S3D combustion simulation through an experimental demonstration (using the Titan system) of the ability to tolerate high failure rates (i.e., node failures every five seconds) with low overhead while sustaining performance at large scales. In addition, this demonstration also displays the failure masking probability increase resulting from the combination of both ghost region expansion and cell-to-rank remapping.« less

Improving chemical species tomography of turbulent flows using covariance estimation.

PubMed

Grauer, Samuel J; Hadwin, Paul J; Daun, Kyle J

2017-05-01

Chemical species tomography (CST) experiments can be divided into limited-data and full-rank cases. Both require solving ill-posed inverse problems, and thus the measurement data must be supplemented with prior information to carry out reconstructions. The Bayesian framework formalizes the role of additive information, expressed as the mean and covariance of a joint-normal prior probability density function. We present techniques for estimating the spatial covariance of a flow under limited-data and full-rank conditions. Our results show that incorporating a covariance estimate into CST reconstruction via a Bayesian prior increases the accuracy of instantaneous estimates. Improvements are especially dramatic in real-time limited-data CST, which is directly applicable to many industrially relevant experiments.

A window of opportunity? Motor skills and perceptions of competence of children in Kindergarten

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Our aim was to examine the relationship between motor skill proficiency and perceptions of competence of children in their first year of school. We also explored gender-based differences. Findings Participants were 260 kindergarten children (mean age = 5y 9 m; boys = 52%) from eight schools; representing 78% of eligible children in those schools. Motor skills were measured using the Test of Gross Motor Development-2 and perceptions of physical competence were assessed using the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Social Acceptance for Young Children. Motor skill scores were generally low (percentile ranks ranged from 16 - 24) but perceptions of physical competence were positive (boys = 18.1/24.0, girls = 19.5/24.0). A MANOVA showed a significant overall effect for gender (Wilk's lambda = .84 with F (3, 254) = 15.84, p < 0.001) and univariate F tests were significant for all outcome variables. The relationship between object control skills and perceptions of physical competence among girls was not significant; however all other correlations were modest but significant. Conclusions Although motor skill levels were quite low, the children generally held positive perceptions of their physical competence. These positive perceptions provide a window of opportunity for fostering skillfulness. The modest relationships between perceptions of competence and motor skill proficiency suggest that the children are beginning to make self-judgments at a young age. Accordingly, opportunities for children to become and feel physically competent need to occur early in their school or preschool life. PMID:22420534

A window of opportunity? Motor skills and perceptions of competence of children in kindergarten.

PubMed

LeGear, Mark; Greyling, Lizette; Sloan, Erin; Bell, Rick I; Williams, Buffy-Lynne; Naylor, Patti-Jean; Temple, Viviene A

2012-03-15

Our aim was to examine the relationship between motor skill proficiency and perceptions of competence of children in their first year of school. We also explored gender-based differences. Participants were 260 kindergarten children (mean age = 5y 9 m; boys = 52%) from eight schools; representing 78% of eligible children in those schools. Motor skills were measured using the Test of Gross Motor Development-2 and perceptions of physical competence were assessed using the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Social Acceptance for Young Children. Motor skill scores were generally low (percentile ranks ranged from 16 - 24) but perceptions of physical competence were positive (boys = 18.1/24.0, girls = 19.5/24.0). A MANOVA showed a significant overall effect for gender (Wilk's lambda = .84 with F (3, 254) = 15.84, p < 0.001) and univariate F tests were significant for all outcome variables. The relationship between object control skills and perceptions of physical competence among girls was not significant; however all other correlations were modest but significant. Although motor skill levels were quite low, the children generally held positive perceptions of their physical competence. These positive perceptions provide a window of opportunity for fostering skillfulness. The modest relationships between perceptions of competence and motor skill proficiency suggest that the children are beginning to make self-judgments at a young age. Accordingly, opportunities for children to become and feel physically competent need to occur early in their school or preschool life.

Data integration in physiology using Bayes’ rule and minimum Bayes’ factors: deubiquitylating enzymes in the renal collecting duct

PubMed Central

Xue, Zhe; Chen, Jia-Xu; Zhao, Yue; Medvar, Barbara

2017-01-01

A major challenge in physiology is to exploit the many large-scale data sets available from “-omic” studies to seek answers to key physiological questions. In previous studies, Bayes’ theorem has been used for this purpose. This approach requires a means to map continuously distributed experimental data to probabilities (likelihood values) to derive posterior probabilities from the combination of prior probabilities and new data. Here, we introduce the use of minimum Bayes’ factors for this purpose and illustrate the approach by addressing a physiological question, “Which deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) encoded by mammalian genomes are most likely to regulate plasma membrane transport processes in renal cortical collecting duct principal cells?” To do this, we have created a comprehensive online database of 110 DUBs present in the mammalian genome (https://hpcwebapps.cit.nih.gov/ESBL/Database/DUBs/). We used Bayes’ theorem to integrate available information from large-scale data sets derived from proteomic and transcriptomic studies of renal collecting duct cells to rank the 110 known DUBs with regard to likelihood of interacting with and regulating transport processes. The top-ranked DUBs were OTUB1, USP14, PSMD7, PSMD14, USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, USP10, and UCHL5. Among these USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, and USP10 are known to be involved in endosomal trafficking and have potential roles in endosomal recycling of plasma membrane proteins in the mammalian cortical collecting duct. PMID:28039431

Data integration in physiology using Bayes' rule and minimum Bayes' factors: deubiquitylating enzymes in the renal collecting duct.

PubMed

Xue, Zhe; Chen, Jia-Xu; Zhao, Yue; Medvar, Barbara; Knepper, Mark A

2017-03-01

A major challenge in physiology is to exploit the many large-scale data sets available from "-omic" studies to seek answers to key physiological questions. In previous studies, Bayes' theorem has been used for this purpose. This approach requires a means to map continuously distributed experimental data to probabilities (likelihood values) to derive posterior probabilities from the combination of prior probabilities and new data. Here, we introduce the use of minimum Bayes' factors for this purpose and illustrate the approach by addressing a physiological question, "Which deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) encoded by mammalian genomes are most likely to regulate plasma membrane transport processes in renal cortical collecting duct principal cells?" To do this, we have created a comprehensive online database of 110 DUBs present in the mammalian genome (https://hpcwebapps.cit.nih.gov/ESBL/Database/DUBs/). We used Bayes' theorem to integrate available information from large-scale data sets derived from proteomic and transcriptomic studies of renal collecting duct cells to rank the 110 known DUBs with regard to likelihood of interacting with and regulating transport processes. The top-ranked DUBs were OTUB1, USP14, PSMD7, PSMD14, USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, USP10, and UCHL5. Among these USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, and USP10 are known to be involved in endosomal trafficking and have potential roles in endosomal recycling of plasma membrane proteins in the mammalian cortical collecting duct. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Practices and Problems of Adult Basic Education in Rural Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, E. Gordon

The percentages of adults needing adult basic education (ABE) programs in rural areas may not differ from those found in metropolitan areas, but the delivery of the system may be different. For example, the rural ABE teaching staff probably will be recruited from the ranks of the regular elementary or high school teachers to teach at night also,…

What Can U.S. Schools Learn from Foreign Counterparts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkel, Ed

2012-01-01

If the results of the most recent international achievement tests were graded on a curve, U.S. students probably would rank somewhere in the B range. They placed 14th in reading, 17th in science and 25th in mathematics among 70 countries whose 15-year-olds participated in the 2009 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) testing, the…

Euro-Philiacs, Euro-Sceptics and Europhobics: Higher Education Policy, Values and Institutional Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neave, Guy

2005-01-01

The European higher education landscape is inhabited by three clans: the Euro-philiac, his wicked twin, the Euro-phobic and most interesting of all, the Euro-sceptic. This unholy trinity has long been with us. Though the recent Euro electoral fiasco has in all probability served to bolster the ranks of the second and third tribes.

Computational Psychometrics for the Measurement of Collaborative Problem Solving Skills

PubMed Central

Polyak, Stephen T.; von Davier, Alina A.; Peterschmidt, Kurt

2017-01-01

This paper describes a psychometrically-based approach to the measurement of collaborative problem solving skills, by mining and classifying behavioral data both in real-time and in post-game analyses. The data were collected from a sample of middle school children who interacted with a game-like, online simulation of collaborative problem solving tasks. In this simulation, a user is required to collaborate with a virtual agent to solve a series of tasks within a first-person maze environment. The tasks were developed following the psychometric principles of Evidence Centered Design (ECD) and are aligned with the Holistic Framework developed by ACT. The analyses presented in this paper are an application of an emerging discipline called computational psychometrics which is growing out of traditional psychometrics and incorporates techniques from educational data mining, machine learning and other computer/cognitive science fields. In the real-time analysis, our aim was to start with limited knowledge of skill mastery, and then demonstrate a form of continuous Bayesian evidence tracing that updates sub-skill level probabilities as new conversation flow event evidence is presented. This is performed using Bayes' rule and conversation item conditional probability tables. The items are polytomous and each response option has been tagged with a skill at a performance level. In our post-game analysis, our goal was to discover unique gameplay profiles by performing a cluster analysis of user's sub-skill performance scores based on their patterns of selected dialog responses. PMID:29238314

Computational Psychometrics for the Measurement of Collaborative Problem Solving Skills.

PubMed

Polyak, Stephen T; von Davier, Alina A; Peterschmidt, Kurt

2017-01-01

This paper describes a psychometrically-based approach to the measurement of collaborative problem solving skills, by mining and classifying behavioral data both in real-time and in post-game analyses. The data were collected from a sample of middle school children who interacted with a game-like, online simulation of collaborative problem solving tasks. In this simulation, a user is required to collaborate with a virtual agent to solve a series of tasks within a first-person maze environment. The tasks were developed following the psychometric principles of Evidence Centered Design (ECD) and are aligned with the Holistic Framework developed by ACT. The analyses presented in this paper are an application of an emerging discipline called computational psychometrics which is growing out of traditional psychometrics and incorporates techniques from educational data mining, machine learning and other computer/cognitive science fields. In the real-time analysis, our aim was to start with limited knowledge of skill mastery, and then demonstrate a form of continuous Bayesian evidence tracing that updates sub-skill level probabilities as new conversation flow event evidence is presented. This is performed using Bayes' rule and conversation item conditional probability tables. The items are polytomous and each response option has been tagged with a skill at a performance level. In our post-game analysis, our goal was to discover unique gameplay profiles by performing a cluster analysis of user's sub-skill performance scores based on their patterns of selected dialog responses.

Is Welfare Reform Responsible for Low Skilled Women's Declining Health Insurance Coverage in the 1990s?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLeire, Thomas; Levine, Judith A.; Levy, Helen

2006-01-01

We use data from the 1989-2001 March Supplements to the Current Population Survey to determine whether welfare reform contributed to declines in health insurance coverage experienced by low-skilled women. Between 1988 and 2000, women with less than a high school education experienced an 8.0 percentage point decline in the probability of having…

The Impact of Task-Based Language Teaching on the Development of Iranian EFL Learners' ESP Reading Comprehension Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Setayesh, Mahnam; Marzban, Amin

2017-01-01

The present study primarily aimed at investigating the effect of Task-Based Language Teaching (TBLT) on development of the Iranian EFL learners' ESP Reading Comprehension Skills. Moreover, it was aimed at investigating the probable difference between the TBLT-instructed students of Law and Mechanical Engineering with respect to their ESP reading…

The Use of Behavioral Skills Training and in situ Feedback to Protect Children with Autism from Abduction Lures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunby, Kristin V.; Rapp, John T.

2014-01-01

We examined the effects of behavioral skills training with in situ feedback on safe responding by children with autism to abduction lures that were presented after a high-probability (high-p) request sequence. This sequence was intended to simulate a grooming or recruitment process. Results show that all 3 participants ultimately acquired the…

A fast algorithm for determining bounds and accurate approximate p-values of the rank product statistic for replicate experiments.

PubMed

Heskes, Tom; Eisinga, Rob; Breitling, Rainer

2014-11-21

The rank product method is a powerful statistical technique for identifying differentially expressed molecules in replicated experiments. A critical issue in molecule selection is accurate calculation of the p-value of the rank product statistic to adequately address multiple testing. Both exact calculation and permutation and gamma approximations have been proposed to determine molecule-level significance. These current approaches have serious drawbacks as they are either computationally burdensome or provide inaccurate estimates in the tail of the p-value distribution. We derive strict lower and upper bounds to the exact p-value along with an accurate approximation that can be used to assess the significance of the rank product statistic in a computationally fast manner. The bounds and the proposed approximation are shown to provide far better accuracy over existing approximate methods in determining tail probabilities, with the slightly conservative upper bound protecting against false positives. We illustrate the proposed method in the context of a recently published analysis on transcriptomic profiling performed in blood. We provide a method to determine upper bounds and accurate approximate p-values of the rank product statistic. The proposed algorithm provides an order of magnitude increase in throughput as compared with current approaches and offers the opportunity to explore new application domains with even larger multiple testing issue. The R code is published in one of the Additional files and is available at http://www.ru.nl/publish/pages/726696/rankprodbounds.zip .

A risk-based predictive tool to prevent accidental introductions of nonindigenous marine species.

PubMed

Floerl, Oliver; Inglis, Graeme J; Hayden, Barbara J

2005-06-01

Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (approximately 43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.

A survey of the practice of nurses' skills in Wenchuan earthquake disaster sites: implications for disaster training.

PubMed

Yin, Huahua; He, Haiyan; Arbon, Paul; Zhu, Jingci

2011-10-01

To determine nursing skills most relevant for nurses participating in disaster response medical teams; make recommendations to enhance training of nurses who will be first responders to a disaster site; to improve the capacity of nurses to prepare and respond to severe natural disasters. Worldwide, nurses play a key role in disaster response teams at disaster sites. They are often not prepared for the challenges of dealing with mass casualties; little research exists into what basic nursing skills are required by nurses who are first responders to a disaster situation. This study assessed the most relevant disaster nursing skills of first responder nurses at the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster site. Data were collected in China in 2008 using a self-designed questionnaire, with 24 participants who had been part of the medical teams that were dispatched to the disaster sites. The top three skills essential for nurses were: intravenous insertion; observation and monitoring; mass casualty triage. The three most frequently used skills were: debridement and dressing; observation and monitoring; intravenous insertion. The three skills performed most proficiently were: intravenous insertion; observation and monitoring; urethral catheterization. The top three ranking skills most important for training were: mass casualty transportation; emergency management; haemostasis, bandaging, fixation, manual handling. The core nursing skills for disaster response training are: mass casualty transportation; emergency management; haemostasis, bandaging, fixation, manual handling; observation and monitoring; mass casualty triage; controlling specific infection; psychological crisis intervention; cardiopulmonary resuscitation; debridement and dressing; central venous catheter insertion; patient care recording. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Using Weighted Entropy to Rank Chemicals in Quantitative High Throughput Screening Experiments

PubMed Central

Shockley, Keith R.

2014-01-01

Quantitative high throughput screening (qHTS) experiments can simultaneously produce concentration-response profiles for thousands of chemicals. In a typical qHTS study, a large chemical library is subjected to a primary screen in order to identify candidate hits for secondary screening, validation studies or prediction modeling. Different algorithms, usually based on the Hill equation logistic model, have been used to classify compounds as active or inactive (or inconclusive). However, observed concentration-response activity relationships may not adequately fit a sigmoidal curve. Furthermore, it is unclear how to prioritize chemicals for follow-up studies given the large uncertainties that often accompany parameter estimates from nonlinear models. Weighted Shannon entropy can address these concerns by ranking compounds according to profile-specific statistics derived from estimates of the probability mass distribution of response at the tested concentration levels. This strategy can be used to rank all tested chemicals in the absence of a pre-specified model structure or the approach can complement existing activity call algorithms by ranking the returned candidate hits. The weighted entropy approach was evaluated here using data simulated from the Hill equation model. The procedure was then applied to a chemical genomics profiling data set interrogating compounds for androgen receptor agonist activity. PMID:24056003

The significance of the choice of radiobiological (NTCP) models in treatment plan objective functions.

PubMed

Miller, J; Fuller, M; Vinod, S; Suchowerska, N; Holloway, L

2009-06-01

A Clinician's discrimination between radiation therapy treatment plans is traditionally a subjective process, based on experience and existing protocols. A more objective and quantitative approach to distinguish between treatment plans is to use radiobiological or dosimetric objective functions, based on radiobiological or dosimetric models. The efficacy of models is not well understood, nor is the correlation of the rank of plans resulting from the use of models compared to the traditional subjective approach. One such radiobiological model is the Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP). Dosimetric models or indicators are more accepted in clinical practice. In this study, three radiobiological models, Lyman NTCP, critical volume NTCP and relative seriality NTCP, and three dosimetric models, Mean Lung Dose (MLD) and the Lung volumes irradiated at 10Gy (V10) and 20Gy (V20), were used to rank a series of treatment plans using, harm to normal (Lung) tissue as the objective criterion. None of the models considered in this study showed consistent correlation with the Radiation Oncologists plan ranking. If radiobiological or dosimetric models are to be used in objective functions for lung treatments, based on this study it is recommended that the Lyman NTCP model be used because it will provide most consistency with traditional clinician ranking.

Bilateral Image Subtraction and Multivariate Models for the Automated Triaging of Screening Mammograms

PubMed Central

Celaya-Padilla, José; Martinez-Torteya, Antonio; Rodriguez-Rojas, Juan; Galvan-Tejada, Jorge; Treviño, Victor; Tamez-Peña, José

2015-01-01

Mammography is the most common and effective breast cancer screening test. However, the rate of positive findings is very low, making the radiologic interpretation monotonous and biased toward errors. This work presents a computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) method aimed to automatically triage mammogram sets. The method coregisters the left and right mammograms, extracts image features, and classifies the subjects into risk of having malignant calcifications (CS), malignant masses (MS), and healthy subject (HS). In this study, 449 subjects (197 CS, 207 MS, and 45 HS) from a public database were used to train and evaluate the CADx. Percentile-rank (p-rank) and z-normalizations were used. For the p-rank, the CS versus HS model achieved a cross-validation accuracy of 0.797 with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.882; the MS versus HS model obtained an accuracy of 0.772 and an AUC of 0.842. For the z-normalization, the CS versus HS model achieved an accuracy of 0.825 with an AUC of 0.882 and the MS versus HS model obtained an accuracy of 0.698 and an AUC of 0.807. The proposed method has the potential to rank cases with high probability of malignant findings aiding in the prioritization of radiologists work list. PMID:26240818

Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) and Response Adjusted for Duration of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR).

PubMed

Evans, Scott R; Rubin, Daniel; Follmann, Dean; Pennello, Gene; Huskins, W Charles; Powers, John H; Schoenfeld, David; Chuang-Stein, Christy; Cosgrove, Sara E; Fowler, Vance G; Lautenbach, Ebbing; Chambers, Henry F

2015-09-01

Clinical trials that compare strategies to optimize antibiotic use are of critical importance but are limited by competing risks that distort outcome interpretation, complexities of noninferiority trials, large sample sizes, and inadequate evaluation of benefits and harms at the patient level. The Antibacterial Resistance Leadership Group strives to overcome these challenges through innovative trial design. Response adjusted for duration of antibiotic risk (RADAR) is a novel methodology utilizing a superiority design and a 2-step process: (1) categorizing patients into an overall clinical outcome (based on benefits and harms), and (2) ranking patients with respect to a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR). DOORs are constructed by assigning higher ranks to patients with (1) better overall clinical outcomes and (2) shorter durations of antibiotic use for similar overall clinical outcomes. DOOR distributions are compared between antibiotic use strategies. The probability that a randomly selected patient will have a better DOOR if assigned to the new strategy is estimated. DOOR/RADAR represents a new paradigm in assessing the risks and benefits of new strategies to optimize antibiotic use. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spherical Tensor Calculus for Local Adaptive Filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisert, Marco; Burkhardt, Hans

In 3D image processing tensors play an important role. While rank-1 and rank-2 tensors are well understood and commonly used, higher rank tensors are rare. This is probably due to their cumbersome rotation behavior which prevents a computationally efficient use. In this chapter we want to introduce the notion of a spherical tensor which is based on the irreducible representations of the 3D rotation group. In fact, any ordinary cartesian tensor can be decomposed into a sum of spherical tensors, while each spherical tensor has a quite simple rotation behavior. We introduce so called tensorial harmonics that provide an orthogonal basis for spherical tensor fields of any rank. It is just a generalization of the well known spherical harmonics. Additionally we propose a spherical derivative which connects spherical tensor fields of different degree by differentiation. Based on the proposed theory we present two applications. We propose an efficient algorithm for dense tensor voting in 3D, which makes use of tensorial harmonics decomposition of the tensor-valued voting field. In this way it is possible to perform tensor voting by linear-combinations of convolutions in an efficient way. Secondly, we propose an anisotropic smoothing filter that uses a local shape and orientation adaptive filter kernel which can be computed efficiently by the use spherical derivatives.

How patients perceive the therapeutic communications skills of their general practitioners, and how that perception affects adherence: use of the TCom-skill GP scale in a specific geographical area.

PubMed

Baumann, Michèle; Baumann, Cédric; Le Bihan, Etienne; Chau, Nearkasen

2008-12-01

To study: (1) the structure and test-retest reliability of a measure of how patients perceive the therapeutic communications skills of their general practitioners (TCom-skill GP), and (2) the associations of that scale with socio-demographic and health-related characteristics, and adherence. A total of 393 people who lived in the same geographic area and invited to attend a preventive medical centre for a check up were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire concerning TCom-skill GP (15 items), socio-demographic and health-related characteristics, and to answer two questions on perceived adherence. The average age of respondents was 46.8 years (SD 14), and 50.4% were men. The TCom-skill GP score was one-dimensional, had high internal coherence (Cronbach alpha 0.92), and good test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficient 0.74). The overall score was positively related to increasing age. Respondents aged 60+ were more likely to be adherent. The higher the score, the higher the probability of adherence. Multivariate analysis showed that the TCom-skill score was associated with advancing age and the number of consultations with the GP during the previous 3 months, but not with gender, living alone, being employed, job category or educational level. Multivariate analysis also showed that adherence was associated with TCom-skill GP score which concealed the association between adherence and advancing age observed in univariate analysis. The TCom-skill GP scale probably has value in assessing the quality of doctor-patient relationships and therapeutic communications. The psychometric properties of the TCom-skill GP scale were appropriate for its use in this context. Adherence related to the TCom-skill GP and the latter related to the age of patients and the number of their previous consultations. The TCom-skill GP scale may be a useful way to assess, in a specific geographical location, the impact of medical professional training on therapeutic communication.

Objective Understanding of Front-of-Package Nutrition Labels among Nutritionally At-Risk Individuals

PubMed Central

Ducrot, Pauline; Méjean, Caroline; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K.; Hercberg, Serge; Péneau, Sandrine

2015-01-01

In the ongoing debate about front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labels, little data exist regarding nutritionally at-risk populations, although they are critical targets of prevention programs. This study aimed to compare the impact of FOP labels on the ability to rank products according to their nutritional quality among French adults potentially at risk of poor dietary quality (N = 14,230). Four labels were evaluated: Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), 5-Color Nutrition Label (5-CNL), Green Tick (Tick), along with a reference without label. Mixed models were used to assess how individual characteristics and FOP labels were associated with the ability to rank products. Older participants and those with a lower educational level, income, nutritional knowledge, and likelihood of reading nutrition facts were less skilled at ranking food products according to nutritional quality. Compared with individual characteristics, nutrition labels had an increased impact on food product ranking ability. Overall, 5-CNL corresponded to the highest rate of correct responses, followed by MTL, GDA, and Tick (p < 0.0001). The strongest impact of 5-CNL was observed among individuals with no nutritional knowledge (odds ratio (OR): 20.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.19–31.06). Therefore, 5-CNL appeared to be effective at informing consumers, including those who are nutritionally at-risk, about the nutritional quality of food products. PMID:26305255

Objective Understanding of Front-of-Package Nutrition Labels among Nutritionally At-Risk Individuals.

PubMed

Ducrot, Pauline; Méjean, Caroline; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K; Hercberg, Serge; Péneau, Sandrine

2015-08-24

In the ongoing debate about front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labels, little data exist regarding nutritionally at-risk populations, although they are critical targets of prevention programs. This study aimed to compare the impact of FOP labels on the ability to rank products according to their nutritional quality among French adults potentially at risk of poor dietary quality (N = 14,230). Four labels were evaluated: Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), 5-Color Nutrition Label (5-CNL), Green Tick (Tick), along with a reference without label. Mixed models were used to assess how individual characteristics and FOP labels were associated with the ability to rank products. Older participants and those with a lower educational level, income, nutritional knowledge, and likelihood of reading nutrition facts were less skilled at ranking food products according to nutritional quality. Compared with individual characteristics, nutrition labels had an increased impact on food product ranking ability. Overall, 5-CNL corresponded to the highest rate of correct responses, followed by MTL, GDA, and Tick (p < 0.0001). The strongest impact of 5-CNL was observed among individuals with no nutritional knowledge (odds ratio (OR): 20.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.19-31.06). Therefore, 5-CNL appeared to be effective at informing consumers, including those who are nutritionally at-risk, about the nutritional quality of food products.

Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment and Association With Survival Among Older Patients With Hematologic Cancers.

PubMed

Hshieh, Tammy T; Jung, Wooram F; Grande, Laura J; Chen, Jiaying; Stone, Richard M; Soiffer, Robert J; Driver, Jane A; Abel, Gregory A

2018-05-01

As the population ages, cognitive impairment has promised to become increasingly common among patients with cancer. Little is known about how specific domains of cognitive impairment may be associated with survival among older patients with hematologic cancers. To determine the prevalence of domain-specific cognitive impairment and its association with overall survival among older patients with blood cancer. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients 75 years and older who presented for initial consultation in the leukemia, myeloma, or lymphoma clinics of a large tertiary hospital in Boston, Massachusetts, from February 1, 2015, to March 31, 2017. Patients underwent screening for frailty and cognitive dysfunction and were followed up for survival. The Clock-in-the-Box (CIB) test was used to screen for executive dysfunction. A 5-word delayed recall test was used to screen for impairment in working memory. The Fried frailty phenotype and Rockwood cumulative deficit model of frailty were also assessed to characterize participants as robust, prefrail, or frail. Among 420 consecutive patients approached, 360 (85.7%) agreed to undergo frailty assessment (232 men [64.4%] and 128 women [35.6%]; mean [SD] age, 79.8 [3.9] years), and 341 of those (94.7%) completed both cognitive screening tests. One hundred twenty-seven patients (35.3%) had probable executive dysfunction on the CIB, and 62 (17.2%) had probable impairment in working memory on the 5-word delayed recall. Impairment in either domain was modestly correlated with the Fried frailty phenotype (CIB, ρ = 0.177; delayed recall, ρ = 0.170; P = .01 for both), and many phenotypically robust patients also had probable cognitive impairment (24 of 104 [23.1%] on CIB and 9 of 104 [8.7%] on delayed recall). Patients with impaired working memory had worse median survival (10.9 [SD, 12.9] vs 12.2 [SD, 14.7] months; log-rank P < .001), including when stratified by indolent cancer (log-rank P = .01) and aggressive cancer (P < .001) and in multivariate analysis when adjusting for age, comorbidities, and disease aggressiveness (odds ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.13-0.50). Impaired working memory was also associated with worse survival for those undergoing intensive treatment (log-rank P < .001). Executive dysfunction was associated with worse survival only among patients who underwent intensive treatment (log-rank P = .03). These data suggest that domains of cognitive dysfunction may be prevalent in older patients with blood cancer and may have differential predictive value for survival. Targeted interventions are needed for this vulnerable patient population.

Does formal research training lead to academic success in otolaryngology?

PubMed

Bobian, Michael R; Shah, Noor; Svider, Peter F; Hong, Robert S; Shkoukani, Mahdi A; Folbe, Adam J; Eloy, Jean Anderson

2017-01-01

To evaluate whether formalized research training is associated with higher researcher productivity, academic rank, and acquisition of National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants within academic otolaryngology departments. Each of the 100 civilian otolaryngology program's departmental websites were analyzed to obtain a comprehensive list of faculty members credentials and characteristics, including academic rank, completion of a clinical fellowship, completion of a formal research fellowship, and attainment of a doctorate in philosophy (PhD) degree. We also recorded measures of scholarly impact and successful acquisition of NIH funding. A total of 1,495 academic physicians were included in our study. Of these, 14.1% had formal research training. Bivariate associations showed that formal research training was associated with a greater h-index, increased probability of acquiring NIH funding, and higher academic rank. Using a linear regression model, we found that otolaryngologists possessing a PhD had an associated h-index of 1.8 points higher, and those who completed a formal research fellowship had an h-index of 1.6 points higher. A PhD degree or completion of a research fellowship was not associated with a higher academic rank; however, a higher h-index and previous acquisition of an NIH grant were associated with a higher academic rank. The attainment of NIH funding was three times more likely for those with a formal research fellowship and 8.6 times more likely for otolaryngologists with a PhD degree. Formalized research training is associated with academic success in otolaryngology. Such dedicated research training accompanies greater scholarly impact, acquisition of NIH funding, and a higher academic rank. NA Laryngoscope, 127:E15-E21, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A Literature Review on Collaborative Problem Solving for College and Workforce Readiness. ETS GRE® Board Research Report. ETS GRE®-17-03. Research Report. ETS Research Report RR-17-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oliveri, Maria Elena; Lawless, Rene; Molloy, Hillary

2017-01-01

The literature and the employee and workforce surveys rank collaborative problem solving (CPS) among the top 5 most critical skills necessary for success in college and the workforce. This paper provides a review of the literature on CPS and related terms, including a discussion of their definitions, importance to higher education and workforce…

Knot probabilities in random diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantarella, Jason; Chapman, Harrison; Mastin, Matt

2016-10-01

We consider a natural model of random knotting—choose a knot diagram at random from the finite set of diagrams with n crossings. We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model. As expected, most diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings are unknots (about 78% of the roughly 1.6 billion 10 crossing diagrams). For these crossing numbers, the unknot fraction is mostly explained by the prevalence of ‘tree-like’ diagrams which are unknots for any assignment of over/under information at crossings. The data shows a roughly linear relationship between the log of knot type probability and the log of the frequency rank of the knot type, analogous to Zipf’s law for word frequency. The complete tabulation and all knot frequencies are included as supplementary data.

Pursuing Excellence: The Power of Selection Science to Provide Meaningful Data and Enhance Efficiency in Selecting Surgical Trainees.

PubMed

Gardner, Aimee K; Dunkin, Brian J

2018-05-01

As current screening methods for selecting surgical trainees are receiving increasing scrutiny, development of a more efficient and effective selection system is needed. We describe the process of creating an evidence-based selection system and examine its impact on screening efficiency, faculty perceptions, and improving representation of underrepresented minorities. The program partnered with an expert in organizational science to identify fellowship position requirements and associated competencies. Situational judgment tests, personality profiles, structured interviews, and technical skills assessments were used to measure these competencies. The situational judgment test and personality profiles were administered online and used to identify candidates to invite for on-site structured interviews and skills testing. A final rank list was created based on all data points and their respective importance. All faculty completed follow-up surveys regarding their perceptions of the process. Candidate demographic and experience data were pulled from the application website. Fifty-five of 72 applicants met eligibility requirements and were invited to take the online assessment, with 50 (91%) completing it. Average time to complete was 42 ± 12 minutes. Eighteen applicants (35%) were invited for on-site structured interviews and skills testing-a greater than 50% reduction in number of invites compared to prior years. Time estimates reveal that the process will result in a time savings of 68% for future iterations, compared to traditional methodologies. Fellowship faculty (N = 5) agreed on the value and efficiency of the process. Underrepresented minority candidates increased from an initial 70% to 92% being invited for an interview and ranked using the new screening tools. Applying selection science to the process of choosing surgical trainees is feasible, efficient, and well-received by faculty for making selection decisions.

An evidence-based evaluation of transferrable skills and job satisfaction for science PhDs

PubMed Central

Brandt, Patrick D.; O’Connell, Anna B.; Hall, Joshua D.; Freeman, Ashalla M.; Harrell, Jessica R.; Cook, Jeanette Gowen; Brennwald, Patrick J.

2017-01-01

PhD recipients acquire discipline-specific knowledge and a range of relevant skills during their training in the life sciences, physical sciences, computational sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Empirically testing the applicability of these skills to various careers held by graduates will help assess the value of current training models. This report details results of an Internet survey of science PhDs (n = 8099) who provided ratings for fifteen transferrable skills. Indeed, analyses indicated that doctoral training develops these transferrable skills, crucial to success in a wide range of careers including research-intensive (RI) and non-research-intensive (NRI) careers. Notably, the vast majority of skills were transferrable across both RI and NRI careers, with the exception of three skills that favored RI careers (creativity/innovative thinking, career planning and awareness skills, and ability to work with people outside the organization) and three skills that favored NRI careers (time management, ability to learn quickly, ability to manage a project). High overall rankings suggested that graduate training imparted transferrable skills broadly. Nonetheless, we identified gaps between career skills needed and skills developed in PhD training that suggest potential areas for improvement in graduate training. Therefore, we suggest that a two-pronged approach is crucial to maximizing existing career opportunities for PhDs and developing a career-conscious training model: 1) encouraging trainees to recognize their existing individual skill sets, and 2) increasing resources and programmatic interventions at the institutional level to address skill gaps. Lastly, comparison of job satisfaction ratings between PhD-trained employees in both career categories indicated that those in NRI career paths were just as satisfied in their work as their RI counterparts. We conclude that PhD training prepares graduates for a broad range of satisfying careers, potentially more than trainees and program leaders currently appreciate. PMID:28931079

An evidence-based evaluation of transferrable skills and job satisfaction for science PhDs.

PubMed

Sinche, Melanie; Layton, Rebekah L; Brandt, Patrick D; O'Connell, Anna B; Hall, Joshua D; Freeman, Ashalla M; Harrell, Jessica R; Cook, Jeanette Gowen; Brennwald, Patrick J

2017-01-01

PhD recipients acquire discipline-specific knowledge and a range of relevant skills during their training in the life sciences, physical sciences, computational sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Empirically testing the applicability of these skills to various careers held by graduates will help assess the value of current training models. This report details results of an Internet survey of science PhDs (n = 8099) who provided ratings for fifteen transferrable skills. Indeed, analyses indicated that doctoral training develops these transferrable skills, crucial to success in a wide range of careers including research-intensive (RI) and non-research-intensive (NRI) careers. Notably, the vast majority of skills were transferrable across both RI and NRI careers, with the exception of three skills that favored RI careers (creativity/innovative thinking, career planning and awareness skills, and ability to work with people outside the organization) and three skills that favored NRI careers (time management, ability to learn quickly, ability to manage a project). High overall rankings suggested that graduate training imparted transferrable skills broadly. Nonetheless, we identified gaps between career skills needed and skills developed in PhD training that suggest potential areas for improvement in graduate training. Therefore, we suggest that a two-pronged approach is crucial to maximizing existing career opportunities for PhDs and developing a career-conscious training model: 1) encouraging trainees to recognize their existing individual skill sets, and 2) increasing resources and programmatic interventions at the institutional level to address skill gaps. Lastly, comparison of job satisfaction ratings between PhD-trained employees in both career categories indicated that those in NRI career paths were just as satisfied in their work as their RI counterparts. We conclude that PhD training prepares graduates for a broad range of satisfying careers, potentially more than trainees and program leaders currently appreciate.

The Decision to Incision Curriculum: Teaching Preoperative Skills and Achieving Level 1 Milestones.

PubMed

Skinner, Bethany; Morgan, Helen; Kobernik, Emily; Kamdar, Neil; Curran, Diana; Marzano, David; Hammoud, Maya

2016-01-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of a preoperative skills curriculum, and to assess and document competence in associated Obstetrics and Gynecology Level 1 Milestones. The Decision to Incision curriculum was developed by a team of medical educators with the goal of teaching and evaluating 5 skills pertinent to Milestone 1: Preoperative consent, patient positioning, Foley catheter placement, surgical scrub, and preoperative time-out. Competence, overall skill performance, and knowledge were assessed by evaluator rating using checklists before and after the educational intervention. Differences between preintervention and postintervention skills performance and competence were assessed using Wilcoxon rank test and Fisher exact test, respectively. Clinical Simulation Center at an academic medical center. Overall, 29 fourth year medical students matriculating into Obstetrics and Gynecology residencies. The proportion of participants meeting Milestone competence significantly increased in all 5 skills, with competence achieved in 95.6% (95% CI: 92.1-99.0) of posttest skills assessments. Median overall performance also significantly improved for all 5 skills, with 83.6% (95% CI: 77.3-89.9) earning scores of 4 out of 5 or greater on the posttest. For knowledge testing, the proportion of correct responses significantly increased for both topics evaluated, from 45.2% to 99.7% (p < 0.0001) for positioning and from 32.8% to 83.1% (p < 0.0001) for time-out. The decision to incision curriculum significantly improved preoperative skills, including skills that may be required on day 1 of residency. This curriculum also facilitated achievement and documentation of competence in multiple Milestones. Copyright © 2016 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inverse treatment planning for spinal robotic radiosurgery: an international multi-institutional benchmark trial.

PubMed

Blanck, Oliver; Wang, Lei; Baus, Wolfgang; Grimm, Jimm; Lacornerie, Thomas; Nilsson, Joakim; Luchkovskyi, Sergii; Cano, Isabel Palazon; Shou, Zhenyu; Ayadi, Myriam; Treuer, Harald; Viard, Romain; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Chan, Mark K H; Hildebrandt, Guido; Dunst, Jürgen; Imhoff, Detlef; Wurster, Stefan; Wolff, Robert; Romanelli, Pantaleo; Lartigau, Eric; Semrau, Robert; Soltys, Scott G; Schweikard, Achim

2016-05-08

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is the accurate, conformal delivery of high-dose radiation to well-defined targets while minimizing normal structure doses via steep dose gradients. While inverse treatment planning (ITP) with computerized optimization algorithms are routine, many aspects of the planning process remain user-dependent. We performed an international, multi-institutional benchmark trial to study planning variability and to analyze preferable ITP practice for spinal robotic radiosurgery. 10 SRS treatment plans were generated for a complex-shaped spinal metastasis with 21 Gy in 3 fractions and tight constraints for spinal cord (V14Gy < 2 cc, V18Gy < 0.1 cc) and target (coverage > 95%). The resulting plans were rated on a scale from 1 to 4 (excellent-poor) in five categories (constraint compliance, optimization goals, low-dose regions, ITP complexity, and clinical acceptability) by a blinded review panel. Additionally, the plans were mathemati-cally rated based on plan indices (critical structure and target doses, conformity, monitor units, normal tissue complication probability, and treatment time) and compared to the human rankings. The treatment plans and the reviewers' rankings varied substantially among the participating centers. The average mean overall rank was 2.4 (1.2-4.0) and 8/10 plans were rated excellent in at least one category by at least one reviewer. The mathematical rankings agreed with the mean overall human rankings in 9/10 cases pointing toward the possibility for sole mathematical plan quality comparison. The final rankings revealed that a plan with a well-balanced trade-off among all planning objectives was preferred for treatment by most par-ticipants, reviewers, and the mathematical ranking system. Furthermore, this plan was generated with simple planning techniques. Our multi-institutional planning study found wide variability in ITP approaches for spinal robotic radiosurgery. The participants', reviewers', and mathematical match on preferable treatment plans and ITP techniques indicate that agreement on treatment planning and plan quality can be reached for spinal robotic radiosurgery.

What Cortisol Can Tell us About the Costs of Sociality and Reproduction Among Free-Ranging Rhesus Macaque Females on Cayo Santiago

PubMed Central

Maestripieri, Dario; Georgiev, Alexander V.

2015-01-01

Research with the rhesus macaque population on Cayo Santiago can provide a unique perspective on the costs of sociality and reproduction in primates. Because the Cayo macaques live in unusually large groups and in a predator-free environment, in which their artificial food source lacks seasonal variation in abundance or quality, these monkeys constitute a semi-experimental study of the costs and benefits of group living. Here we review several long- and short-term studies that have focused on female life history and stress physiology. Long-term demographic data have shown that rhesus macaque females of middle- and low-ranking matrilines have lower adult survival probabilities than females of high-ranking matrilines. Costs of reproductive effort are also evident: adult females were more likely to die during the birth than during the mating season and they experienced higher cortisol levels when lactating. Lower-ranking females, in particular, experienced greater relative increase in cortisol production during lactation, in comparison to middle- and high-ranking females. Older high-ranking females had lower plasma cortisol levels than younger ones but cortisol levels were similarly high among young and old middle- and low-ranking females. Higher plasma cortisol levels and/or fecal glucocorticoid concentrations are associated with higher plasma concentrations of some proinflammatory cytokines. High cortisol, in turn, may be associated with chronic inflammation, and perhaps also with immunosuppression. In sum, the studies reviewed here provide multiple lines of evidence that sociality and reproductive effort impose measurable costs on female rhesus macaques. In line with socioecological theory, female dominance rank consistently emerges as an important modulator of variation in female life histories and physiology. The Cayo Santiago macaques are therefore a valuable model for elucidating the mechanisms by which within-group competition and reproduction impact health and survival in nonhuman primates and in humans. Am. J. Primatol. PMID:25643836

The Impact of Schools on Young People's Transition to University. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth. Research Report 61

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gemici, Sinan; Lim, Patrick; Karmel, Tom

2013-01-01

This report uses Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) data to look at the impact of schools on a student's tertiary entrance rank (TER) and the probability of them going to university (controlling for TER). It shows that the characteristics of schools do matter: although young people's individual characteristics are the main drivers of…

People's Beliefs and Expectations About How Cognitive Skills Change with Age: Evidence From a U.K.-Wide Aging Survey.

PubMed

Vaportzis, Eleftheria; Gow, Alan J

2018-07-01

We conducted a U.K.-wide survey to collect information on people's beliefs, fears, perceptions, and attitudes to cognitive aging. This community-based aging survey included 3,146 adults aged 40 years and over. Respondents believed memory might be the earliest cognitive skill to decline (mean: 59.4 years), followed by speed of thinking (mean: 64.9). Those in their 40s were more pessimistic, because they estimated cognitive changes would start up to 15 years earlier than respondents aged over 70. Having a purpose in life, healthy eating, challenging the mind, sleep, and physical activity ranked higher in terms of perceived importance for maintaining or improving cognitive skills. However, less than 50% engaged in any of these activities. Although 91% believed there are things people can do to maintain or improve their cognitive skills, more than 40% were unsure or did not know how to do so. Respondents who strongly agreed that changes in cognitive skills might be a sign of something more serious were significantly more likely to do various activities to benefit their cognitive skills. Results suggest that people are less aware of the potential cognitive benefits of certain activities, such as exercise and diet. It is important to build awareness about the benefits of lifestyles and activities for cognitive health. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football.

PubMed

Höner, Oliver; Votteler, Andreas

2016-12-01

In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players' selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics' prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches' subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.

Predicting Robust Learning with the Visual Form of the Moment-by-Moment Learning Curve

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Ryan S.; Hershkovitz, Arnon; Rossi, Lisa M.; Goldstein, Adam B.; Gowda, Sujith M.

2013-01-01

We present a new method for analyzing a student's learning over time for a specific skill: analysis of the graph of the student's moment-by-moment learning over time. Moment-by-moment learning is calculated using a data-mined model that assesses the probability that a student learned a skill or concept at a specific time during learning (Baker,…

Psychological distress and alcohol use among fire fighters.

PubMed

Boxer, P A; Wild, D

1993-04-01

Few studies have investigated stressors to which fire fighters are subjected and the potential psychological consequences. One hundred and forty-five fire fighters were studied to enumerate potential occupational stressors, assess psychological distress and problems with alcohol use, and determine whether a relationship exists between these measures and self-reported stressors. Hearing that children are in a burning building was the highest ranked stressor. According to three self-report instruments, between 33 and 41% of the fire fighters were experiencing significant psychological distress, and 29% had possible or probable problems with alcohol use. These figures are significantly higher than would be expected in a typical community or working population. In a logistic regression analysis, no relationship was found between measures of psychological distress and alcohol use and the 10 most highly ranked work stressors.

The effect of health-facility admission and skilled birth attendant coverage on maternal survival in India: a case-control analysis.

PubMed

Montgomery, Ann L; Fadel, Shaza; Kumar, Rajesh; Bondy, Sue; Moineddin, Rahim; Jha, Prabhat

2014-01-01

Research in areas of low skilled attendant coverage found that maternal mortality is paradoxically higher in women who seek obstetric care. We estimated the effect of health-facility admission on maternal survival, and how this effect varies with skilled attendant coverage across India. Using unmatched population-based case-control analysis of national datasets, we compared the effect of health-facility admission at any time (antenatal, intrapartum, postpartum) on maternal deaths (cases) to women reporting pregnancies (controls). Probability of maternal death decreased with increasing skilled attendant coverage, among both women who were and were not admitted to a health-facility, however, the risk of death among women who were admitted was higher (at 50% coverage, OR = 2.32, 95% confidence interval 1.85-2.92) than among those women who were not; while at higher levels of coverage, the effect of health-facility admission was attenuated. In a secondary analysis, the probability of maternal death decreased with increasing coverage among both women admitted for delivery or delivered at home but there was no effect of admission for delivery on mortality risk (50% coverage, OR = 1.0, 0.80-1.25), suggesting that poor quality of obstetric care may have attenuated the benefits of facility-based care. Subpopulation analysis of obstetric hemorrhage cases and report of 'excessive bleeding' in controls showed that the probability of maternal death decreased with increasing skilled attendant coverage; but the effect of health-facility admission was attenuated (at 50% coverage, OR = 1.47, 0.95-1.79), suggesting that some of the effect in the main model can be explained by women arriving at facility with complications underway. Finally, highest risk associated with health-facility admission was clustered in women with education ≤ 8 years. The effect of health-facility admission did vary by skilled attendant coverage, and this effect appears to be driven partially by reverse causality; however, inequitable access to and possibly poor quality of healthcare for primary and emergency services appears to play a role in maternal survival as well.

Analysis of high-throughput biological data using their rank values.

PubMed

Dembélé, Doulaye

2018-01-01

High-throughput biological technologies are routinely used to generate gene expression profiling or cytogenetics data. To achieve high performance, methods available in the literature become more specialized and often require high computational resources. Here, we propose a new versatile method based on the data-ordering rank values. We use linear algebra, the Perron-Frobenius theorem and also extend a method presented earlier for searching differentially expressed genes for the detection of recurrent copy number aberration. A result derived from the proposed method is a one-sample Student's t-test based on rank values. The proposed method is to our knowledge the only that applies to gene expression profiling and to cytogenetics data sets. This new method is fast, deterministic, and requires a low computational load. Probabilities are associated with genes to allow a statistically significant subset selection in the data set. Stability scores are also introduced as quality parameters. The performance and comparative analyses were carried out using real data sets. The proposed method can be accessed through an R package available from the CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network) website: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/fcros .

Block-accelerated aggregation multigrid for Markov chains with application to PageRank problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Zhao-Li; Huang, Ting-Zhu; Carpentieri, Bruno; Wen, Chun; Gu, Xian-Ming

2018-06-01

Recently, the adaptive algebraic aggregation multigrid method has been proposed for computing stationary distributions of Markov chains. This method updates aggregates on every iterative cycle to keep high accuracies of coarse-level corrections. Accordingly, its fast convergence rate is well guaranteed, but often a large proportion of time is cost by aggregation processes. In this paper, we show that the aggregates on each level in this method can be utilized to transfer the probability equation of that level into a block linear system. Then we propose a Block-Jacobi relaxation that deals with the block system on each level to smooth error. Some theoretical analysis of this technique is presented, meanwhile it is also adapted to solve PageRank problems. The purpose of this technique is to accelerate the adaptive aggregation multigrid method and its variants for solving Markov chains and PageRank problems. It also attempts to shed some light on new solutions for making aggregation processes more cost-effective for aggregation multigrid methods. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this technique.

Tracking Expected Improvements of Decadal Prediction in Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckling, E.; Thompson, E.; Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Physics-based simulation models are ultimately expected to provide the best available (decision-relevant) probabilistic climate predictions, as they can capture the dynamics of the Earth System across a range of situations, situations for which observations for the construction of empirical models are scant if not nonexistent. This fact in itself provides neither evidence that predictions from today's Earth Systems Models will outperform today's empirical models, nor a guide to the space and time scales on which today's model predictions are adequate for a given purpose. Empirical (data-based) models are employed to make probability forecasts on decadal timescales. The skill of these forecasts is contrasted with that of state-of-the-art climate models, and the challenges faced by each approach are discussed. The focus is on providing decision-relevant probability forecasts for decision support. An empirical model, known as Dynamic Climatology is shown to be competitive with CMIP5 climate models on decadal scale probability forecasts. Contrasting the skill of simulation models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which a generation of simulation models exploits their physical basis effectively. It can also quantify their ability to add information in the formation of operational forecasts. Difficulties (i) of information contamination (ii) of the interpretation of probabilistic skill and (iii) of artificial skill complicate each modelling approach, and are discussed. "Physics free" empirical models provide fixed, quantitative benchmarks for the evaluation of ever more complex climate models, that is not available from (inter)comparisons restricted to only complex models. At present, empirical models can also provide a background term for blending in the formation of probability forecasts from ensembles of simulation models. In weather forecasting this role is filled by the climatological distribution, and can significantly enhance the value of longer lead-time weather forecasts to those who use them. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models become a regular component of large model forecast intercomparison and evaluation. This would clarify the extent to which a given generation of state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models. It would also clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. No model-based probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate if its own irrelevance; this estimate is likely to increase as a function of lead time. A lack of decision-relevant quantitative skill would not bring the science-based foundation of anthropogenic warming into doubt. Similar levels of skill with empirical models does suggest a clear quantification of limits, as a function of lead time, for spatial and temporal scales on which decisions based on such model output are expected to prove maladaptive. Failing to clearly state such weaknesses of a given generation of simulation models, while clearly stating their strength and their foundation, risks the credibility of science in support of policy in the long term.

Devising a consensus definition and framework for non-technical skills in healthcare to support educational design: A modified Delphi study.

PubMed

Gordon, Morris; Baker, Paul; Catchpole, Ken; Darbyshire, Daniel; Schocken, Dawn

2015-01-01

Non-technical skills are a subset of human factors that focus on the individual and promote safety through teamwork and awareness. There is no widely adopted competency- or outcome-based framework for non-technical skills training in healthcare. The authors set out to devise such a framework using a modified Delphi approach. An exhaustive list of published and team suggested items was presented to the expert panel for ranking and to propose a definition. In the second round, a focused list was presented, as well as the proposed definition elements. The finalised framework was sent to the panel for review. Sixteen experts participated. The final framework consists of 16 competencies for all and eight specific competencies for team leaders. The consensus definition describes non-technical skills as "a set of social (communication and team work) and cognitive (analytical and personal behaviour) skills that support high quality, safe, effective and efficient inter-professional care within the complex healthcare system". The authors have produced a new competency framework, through the works of an International expert panel, which is not discipline specific that can be used by curriculum developers, educational innovators and clinical teachers to support developments in the field.

Pediatrics Residents' Confidence and Performance Following a Longitudinal Quality Improvement Curriculum.

PubMed

Courtlandt, Cheryl; Noonan, Laura; Koricke, Maureen Walsh; Zeskind, Philip Sanford; Mabus, Sarah; Feld, Leonard

2016-02-01

Quality improvement (QI) training is an integral part of residents' education. Understanding the educational value of a QI curriculum facilitates understanding of its impact. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a longitudinal QI curriculum on pediatrics residents' confidence and competence in the acquisition and application of QI knowledge and skills. Three successive cohorts of pediatrics residents (N = 36) participated in a longitudinal curriculum designed to increase resident confidence in QI knowledge and skills. Key components were a succession of progressive experiential projects, QI coaching, and resident team membership culminating in leadership of the project. Residents completed precurricular and postcurricular surveys and demonstrated QI competence by performance on the pediatric QI assessment scenario. Residents participating in the Center for Advancing Pediatric Excellence QI curriculum showed significant increases in pre-post measures of confidence in QI knowledge and skills. Coaching and team leadership were ranked by resident participants as having the most educational value among curriculum components. A pediatric QI assessment scenario, which correlated with resident-perceived confidence in acquisition of QI skills but not QI knowledge, is a tool available to test pediatrics residents' QI knowledge. A 3-year longitudinal, multimodal, experiential QI curriculum increased pediatrics residents' confidence in QI knowledge and skills, was feasible with faculty support, and was well-accepted by residents.

A Meta-analysis of universal mental health prevention programs for higher education students.

PubMed

Conley, Colleen S; Durlak, Joseph A; Kirsch, Alexandra C

2015-05-01

This meta-analysis investigated the effectiveness of universal mental health prevention programs for higher education students on a range of adjustment outcomes. A systematic literature search identified 103 controlled published and unpublished interventions involving college, graduate, or professional students. As hypothesized, skill-training programs that included a supervised practice component were significantly more effective overall (mean effect size = 0.45, confidence interval (CI) = 0.39 to 0.52) compared to skill-training programs without supervised practice (0.11, CI = -0.01 to 0.22) and psychoeducational (information-only) programs (0.13, CI = 0.06 to 0.21). When comparisons on specific outcomes were possible, skill-training programs including supervised practice were significantly more effective than the other two groups of programs in reducing symptoms of depression, anxiety, stress, and general psychological distress, and in improving social-emotional skills, self-perceptions, and academic behaviors and performance. The magnitude of effects achieved in several outcome areas is comparable to or higher than that reported in other reviews of universal programs, suggesting that skill-training programs for higher education students that incorporate supervised practice now join the ranks of other effective preventive mental health interventions. This review offers several recommendations to improve the experimental rigor of future research.

OSCE-based Clinical Skill Education for Physical and Occupational Therapists

PubMed Central

Sakurai, Hiroaki; Kanada, Yoshikiyo; Sugiura, Yoshito; Motoya, Ikuo; Wada, Yosuke; Yamada, Masayuki; Tomita, Masao; Tanabe, Shigeo; Teranishi, Toshio; Tsujimura, Toru; Sawa, Syunji; Okanishi, Tetsuo

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of the Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) to postgraduate education systems for novice and mid-career therapists in workplaces. [Subjects] Physical and occupational therapists with 1 to 5 years of clinical experience took the OSCE to assess their learning, with a physical or occupational therapy faculty member and a clinical supervisor as examiners. Another clinical supervisor acted as a simulated patient. [Methods] A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to compare skills between before and after OSCE-based learning, and a Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare them between therapists with 1 to 2 years (novice) and 3 to 5 years (mid-career) of clinical experience. [Results] While no experience-related differences were observed in behavioral aspects, mid-career therapists exhibited markedly higher scores compared with novices in technical aspects, such as skills to guide patients for standing up, transfer, and dressing. [Conclusion] The OSCE may be sufficiently applicable to postgraduate education systems in workplaces. PMID:25276021

Efficacy of antidepressive medication for depression in Parkinson disease: a network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zhuo, Chuanjun; Xue, Rong; Luo, Lanlan; Ji, Feng; Tian, Hongjun; Qu, Hongru; Lin, Xiaodong; Jiang, Ronghuan; Tao, Ran

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Parkinson disease (PD) was considered as the 2nd most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder after Alzheimer disease, while depression is a prevailing nonmotor symptom of PD. Typically used antidepression medication includes tricyclic antidepressants (TCA), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI), serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRI), monoamine-oxidase inhibitors (MAOI), and dopamine agonists (DA). Our study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of antidepressive medications for depression of PD. Methods: Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library were searched for related articles. Traditional meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed with outcomes including depression score, UPDRS-II, UPDRS-III, and adverse effects. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) was also performed to illustrate the rank probabilities of different medications on various outcomes. The consistency of direct and indirect evidence was also assessed by node-splitting method. Results: Results of traditional pairwise meta-analysis were performed. Concerning depression score, significant improvement was observed in AD, MAOI, SSRI, and SNRI compared with placebo. NMA was performed and more information could be obtained. DA was illustrated to be effective over placebo concerning UPDRS-III, MAOI, and SNRI. DA demonstrated a better prognosis in UPDRS-II scores compared with placebo and MAOI. However, DA and SSRI demonstrated a significant increase in adverse effects compared with placebo. The SUCRA value was calculated to evaluate the ranking probabilities of all medications on investigated outcomes, and the consistency between direct and indirect evidences was assessed by node-splitting method. Conclusion: SSRI had a satisfying efficacy for the depression of PD patients and could improve activities of daily living and motor function of patient but the adverse effects are unneglectable. SNRI are the safest medication with high efficacy for depression as well while other outcomes are relatively poor. PMID:28562526

Extension of Kaplan-Meier methods in observational studies with time-varying treatment.

PubMed

Xu, Stanley; Shetterly, Susan; Powers, David; Raebel, Marsha A; Tsai, Thomas T; Ho, P Michael; Magid, David

2012-01-01

Inverse probability of treatment weighted Kaplan-Meier estimates have been developed to compare two treatments in the presence of confounders in observational studies. Recently, stabilized weights were developed to reduce the influence of extreme inverse probability of treatment-weighted weights in estimating treatment effects. The objective of this research was to use adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates and modified log-rank and Wilcoxon tests to examine the effect of a treatment that varies over time in an observational study. We proposed stabilized weight adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates and modified log-rank and Wilcoxon tests when the treatment was time-varying over the follow-up period. We applied these new methods in examining the effect of an anti-platelet agent, clopidogrel, on subsequent events, including bleeding, myocardial infarction, and death after a drug-eluting stent was implanted into a coronary artery. In this population, clopidogrel use may change over time based on a patient's behavior (e.g., nonadherence) and physicians' recommendations (e.g., end of duration of therapy). Consequently, clopidogrel use was treated as a time-varying variable. We demonstrate that 1) the sample sizes at three chosen time points are almost identical in the original and weighted datasets; and 2) the covariates between patients on and off clopidogrel were well balanced after stabilized weights were applied to the original samples. The stabilized weight-adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates and modified log-rank and Wilcoxon tests are useful in presenting and comparing survival functions for time-varying treatments in observational studies while adjusting for known confounders. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cause-specific mortality by occupational skill level in Canada: a 16-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Tjepkema, M; Wilkins, R; Long, A

2013-09-01

Mortality data by occupation are not routinely available in Canada, so we analyzed census-linked data to examine cause-specific mortality rates across groups of occupations ranked by skill level. A 15% sample of 1991 Canadian Census respondents aged 25 years or older was previously linked to 16 years of mortality data (1991-2006). The current analysis is based on 2.3 million people aged 25 to 64 years at cohort inception, among whom there were 164 332 deaths during the follow-up period. Occupations coded according to the National Occupation Classification were grouped into five skill levels. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), rate ratios (RRs), rate differences (RDs) and excess mortality were calculated by occupational skill level for various causes of death. ASMRs were clearly graded by skill level: they were highest among those employed in unskilled jobs (and those without an occupation) and lowest for those in professional occupations. All-cause RRs for men were 1.16, 1.40, 1.63 and 1.83 with decreasing occupational skill level compared with professionals. For women the gradient was less steep: 1.23, 1.24, 1.32 and 1.53. This gradient was present for most causes of death. Rate ratios comparing lowest to highest skill levels were greater than 2 for HIV/AIDS, diabetes mellitus, suicide and cancer of the cervix as well as for causes of death associated with tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption. Mortality gradients by occupational skill level were evident for most causes of death. These results provide detailed cause-specific baseline indicators not previously available for Canada.

Understanding causes of fall and struck-by incidents: What differentiates construction safety in the Arabian Gulf region?

PubMed

Fass, Simon; Yousef, Rami; Liginlal, Divakaran; Vyas, Priyanka

2017-01-01

Rapid growth in the Arabian Gulf region has fueled an explosive pace of construction and a rise in risks of occupational injury. Scarcity of pertinent data, however, makes it hard to determine whether accident characteristics, causal factors and remedial interventions identified elsewhere apply to the Gulf in comparable ways. This difficulty stems from unusual construction sector characteristics, notably a heterogeneous mix of expatriate laborers and firms working without a common language, work culture or labor practices. Does this change the mix of accident types or the ranking of main causes and priority remedies? To answer this question, a sample of 519 incident records was analyzed to determine whether accident types and frequencies are comparable to elsewhere. Site safety experts were then interviewed to determine whether rankings of factors and interventions should be similar. Findings are that types are indeed comparable, but the rankings of factors and interventions may not be. Main factors have to do with worker skills and training, experience, use of safety gear and risk perception. The overarching safety issue, however, is that firms and governments do not have strong incentive to address these factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the potential for improving S2S forecast skill through multimodel ensembling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigaud, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Tippett, M. K.; Wang, L.; Bell, M. J.

2016-12-01

Non-linear logistic regression is well suited to probability forecasting and has been successfully applied in the past to ensemble weather and climate predictions, providing access to the full probabilities distribution without any Gaussian assumption. However, little work has been done at sub-monthly lead times where relatively small re-forecast ensembles and lengths represent new challenges for which post-processing avenues have yet to be investigated. A promising approach consists in extending the definition of non-linear logistic regression by including the quantile of the forecast distribution as one of the predictors. So-called Extended Logistic Regression (ELR), which enables mutually consistent individual threshold probabilities, is here applied to ECMWF, CFSv2 and CMA re-forecasts from the S2S database in order to produce rainfall probabilities at weekly resolution. The ELR model is trained on seasonally-varying tercile categories computed for lead times of 1 to 4 weeks. It is then tested in a cross-validated manner, i.e. allowing real-time predictability applications, to produce rainfall tercile probabilities from individual weekly hindcasts that are finally combined by equal pooling. Results will be discussed over a broader North American region, where individual and MME forecasts generated out to 4 weeks lead are characterized by good probabilistic reliability but low sharpness, exhibiting systematically more skill in winter than summer.

Uncertainty plus prior equals rational bias: an intuitive Bayesian probability weighting function.

PubMed

Fennell, John; Baddeley, Roland

2012-10-01

Empirical research has shown that when making choices based on probabilistic options, people behave as if they overestimate small probabilities, underestimate large probabilities, and treat positive and negative outcomes differently. These distortions have been modeled using a nonlinear probability weighting function, which is found in several nonexpected utility theories, including rank-dependent models and prospect theory; here, we propose a Bayesian approach to the probability weighting function and, with it, a psychological rationale. In the real world, uncertainty is ubiquitous and, accordingly, the optimal strategy is to combine probability statements with prior information using Bayes' rule. First, we show that any reasonable prior on probabilities leads to 2 of the observed effects; overweighting of low probabilities and underweighting of high probabilities. We then investigate 2 plausible kinds of priors: informative priors based on previous experience and uninformative priors of ignorance. Individually, these priors potentially lead to large problems of bias and inefficiency, respectively; however, when combined using Bayesian model comparison methods, both forms of prior can be applied adaptively, gaining the efficiency of empirical priors and the robustness of ignorance priors. We illustrate this for the simple case of generic good and bad options, using Internet blogs to estimate the relevant priors of inference. Given this combined ignorant/informative prior, the Bayesian probability weighting function is not only robust and efficient but also matches all of the major characteristics of the distortions found in empirical research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Developing Senior Navy Leaders: Requirements for Flag Officer Expertise Today and in the Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

who reach flag ranks have already passed numerous tests of their leadership skills, so there is little differentiation in either the demand for or...NooN) Master Chief Petty Officer (MCPON) Director of Test and Evaluation Technology Requirements (N091) Surgeon General of the Navy (N093) Chief of Navy...Operations Fleet Forces Command Naval Reserve Forces Operational Test and Evaluation Forces Naval Special Warfare Command U.S. Naval Forces Central Command

Optimal nonlinear filtering using the finite-volume method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Colin; Morrison, Malcolm E. K.; Norton, Richard A.; Molteno, Timothy C. A.

2018-01-01

Optimal sequential inference, or filtering, for the state of a deterministic dynamical system requires simulation of the Frobenius-Perron operator, that can be formulated as the solution of a continuity equation. For low-dimensional, smooth systems, the finite-volume numerical method provides a solution that conserves probability and gives estimates that converge to the optimal continuous-time values, while a Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy-type condition assures that intermediate discretized solutions remain positive density functions. This method is demonstrated in an example of nonlinear filtering for the state of a simple pendulum, with comparison to results using the unscented Kalman filter, and for a case where rank-deficient observations lead to multimodal probability distributions.

A probabilistic verification score for contours demonstrated with idealized ice-edge forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goessling, Helge; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

We introduce a probabilistic verification score for ensemble-based forecasts of contours: the Spatial Probability Score (SPS). Defined as the spatial integral of local (Half) Brier Scores, the SPS can be considered the spatial analog of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Applying the SPS to idealized seasonal ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice edge in a global coupled climate model, we demonstrate that the SPS responds properly to ensemble size, bias, and spread. When applied to individual forecasts or ensemble means (or quantiles), the SPS is reduced to the 'volume' of mismatch, in case of the ice edge corresponding to the Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE).

Quantization of the Szekeres system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paliathanasis, A.; Zampeli, Adamantia; Christodoulakis, T.; Mustafa, M. T.

2018-06-01

We study the quantum corrections on the Szekeres system in the context of canonical quantization in the presence of symmetries. We start from an effective point-like Lagrangian with two integrals of motion, one corresponding to the Hamiltonian and the other to a second rank killing tensor. Imposing their quantum version on the wave function results to a solution which is then interpreted in the context of Bohmian mechanics. In this semiclassical approach, it is shown that there is no quantum corrections, thus the classical trajectories of the Szekeres system are not affected at this level. Finally, we define a probability function which shows that a stationary surface of the probability corresponds to a classical exact solution.

Potential for spatial displacement of Cook Inlet beluga whales by anthropogenic noise in critical habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Small, Robert J.; Brost, Brian M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Castellote, Manuel; Mondragon, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The population of beluga whales in Cook Inlet, Alaska, USA, declined by nearly half in the mid-1990s, primarily from an unsustainable harvest, and was listed as endangered in 2008. In 2014, abundance was ~340 whales, and the population trend during 1999-2014 was -1.3% yr-1. Cook Inlet beluga whales are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, and noise that has the potential to reduce communication and echolocation range considerably has been documented in critical habitat; thus, noise was ranked as a high potential threat in the Cook Inlet beluga Recovery Plan. The current recovery strategy includes research on effects of threats potentially limiting recovery, and thus we examined the potential impact of anthropogenic noise in critical habitat, specifically, spatial displacement. Using a subset of data on anthropogenic noise and beluga detections from a 5 yr acoustic study, we evaluated the influence of noise events on beluga occupancy probability. We used occupancy models, which account for factors that affect detection probability when estimating occupancy, the first application of these models to examine the potential impacts of anthropogenic noise on marine mammal behavior. Results were inconclusive, primarily because beluga detections were relatively infrequent. Even though noise metrics (sound pressure level and noise duration) appeared in high-ranking models as covariates for occupancy probability, the data were insufficient to indicate better predictive ability beyond those models that only included environmental covariates. Future studies that implement protocols designed specifically for beluga occupancy will be most effective for accurately estimating the effect of noise on beluga displacement.

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 daysmore » of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.« less

A survey of Canadian medical physicists: software quality assurance of in-house software.

PubMed

Salomons, Greg J; Kelly, Diane

2015-01-05

This paper reports on a survey of medical physicists who write and use in-house written software as part of their professional work. The goal of the survey was to assess the extent of in-house software usage and the desire or need for related software quality guidelines. The survey contained eight multiple-choice questions, a ranking question, and seven free text questions. The survey was sent to medical physicists associated with cancer centers across Canada. The respondents to the survey expressed interest in having guidelines to help them in their software-related work, but also demonstrated extensive skills in the area of testing, safety, and communication. These existing skills form a basis for medical physicists to establish a set of software quality guidelines.

An analysis of an optimal selection process for characteristics and technical performance of baseball pitchers.

PubMed

Lin, Wen-Bin; Tung, I-Wu; Chen, Mei-Jung; Chen, Mei-Yen

2011-08-01

Selection of a qualified pitcher has relied previously on qualitative indices; here, both quantitative and qualitative indices including pitching statistics, defense, mental skills, experience, and managers' recognition were collected, and an analytic hierarchy process was used to rank baseball pitchers. The participants were 8 experts who ranked characteristics and statistics of 15 baseball pitchers who comprised the first round of potential representatives for the Chinese Taipei National Baseball team. The results indicated a selection rate that was 91% consistent with the official national team roster, as 11 pitchers with the highest scores who were recommended as optimal choices to be official members of the Chinese Tai-pei National Baseball team actually participated in the 2009 Baseball World Cup. An analytic hierarchy can aid in selection of qualified pitchers, depending on situational and practical needs; the method could be extended to other sports and team-selection situations.

Beyond rankings: using cognitive mapping to understand what health care journals represent.

PubMed

Shewchuk, Richard M; O'connor, Stephen J; Williams, Eric S; Savage, Grant T

2006-03-01

Studies of journal ratings are often controversial. Indices, including impact factors, acceptance rates, expert opinions, and ratings of knowledge, relevance, and quality have been used to organize journals hierarchically. While there may be some validity in consensus rankings, it is unclear what purpose is actually achieved by these endeavors. Impact factors probably help researchers identify authoritative journals, but other rankings likely indicate little more than institutionalized perceptions of prestige. Ranking schema used to derive evaluative judgments do not provide information about the organization of journals from the perspective of substantive content, emphasis, or targeted audience. A cognitive mapping approach that examines how health care management faculty members represent their perceptions of North American health care-oriented journals is presented as an alternative. A card-sort task and importance rating scale was mailed to faculty of North American health management programs who participated in a previous journal ranking study conducted by the authors. Completed assessments were returned from 147 respondents for a response rate of 39%. Multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses of data provided a three-dimensional, seven cluster map that illustrates the perceived similarities of journals. Dimension I contrasts Applied Management Practice with Health Policy journals. Dimension II contrasts specific domain with broad-based research journals. Dimension III contrasts finance-oriented with delivery-oriented journals. The seven clusters of perceptually similar journals were weighted in terms of respondent defined importance ascribed to each journal within a cluster. This framework supplements ratings by providing insight about how journals are cognitively organized by scholars.

The Role of Grunt Calls in the Social Dominance Hierarchy of the White-Lipped Peccary (Mammalia, Tayassuidae).

PubMed

Nogueira, Selene S C; Caselli, Christini B; Costa, Thaise S O; Moura, Leiliany N; Nogueira-Filho, Sérgio L G

2016-01-01

Grunt-like calls are present in the vocal repertoire of many group-living mammals and seem to facilitate social interactions between lower and higher-ranking members. The white-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari) lives in stable hierarchical mixed-sex groups and like non-human primates, usually emits grunt-like calls following aggressive interactions, mainly during feeding contexts. We investigated the possible functions of peccaries' grunt-like calls and their relationship to the individuals' social rank, identity, and sexual dimorphism. We observed that low-ranking individuals emitted grunt-like calls more often than high-ranking ones, and that the alpha male never emitted this vocalization. Moreover, the mean minimum frequency of grunt-like calls decreased as the peccary's rank increased. The findings revealed differences among individual grunts, but the low accuracy of cross-validation (16%) suggests that individual recognition in peccaries may be less important than an honest signal of individual social status. In addition, the absence of differences in the acoustic parameters of grunt-like calls between males and females points to the lack of sexual dimorphism in this species. We verified that after hearing grunt calls, dominant opponents were more likely to cease attacking a victim, or at least delay the continuation of conflict, probably decreasing the severity of agonistic interactions. Our findings are particularly important to improve the current understanding of the role of grunt-like calls in herd-living mammals with linear dominant hierarchies, and strongly suggest that they are involved in the maintenance of herd social stability and cohesion.

Measurement and risk adjustment of prelabor cesarean rates in a large sample of California hospitals.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D; Currid-Halkett, Elizabeth; Doctor, Jason N

2014-05-01

Prelabor cesareans in women without a prior cesarean is an important quality measure, yet one that is seldom tracked. We estimated patient-level risks and calculated how sensitive hospital rankings on this proposed quality metric were to risk adjustment. This retrospective cohort study linked Californian patient data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality with hospital-level operational and financial data. Using the outcome of primary prelabor cesarean, we estimated patient-level logistic regressions in progressively more detailed models. We assessed incremental fit and discrimination, and aggregated the predicted patient-level event probabilities to construct hospital-level rankings. Of 408,355 deliveries by women without prior cesareans at 254 hospitals, 11.0% were prelabor cesareans. Including age, ethnicity, race, insurance, weekend and unscheduled admission, and 12 well-known patient risk factors yielded a model c-statistic of 0.83. Further maternal comorbidities, and hospital and obstetric unit characteristics only marginally improved fit. Risk adjusting hospital rankings led to a median absolute change in rank of 44 places compared to rankings based on observed rates. Of the 48 (49) hospitals identified as in the best (worst) quintile on observed rates, only 23 (18) were so identified by the risk-adjusted model. Models predict primary prelabor cesareans with good discrimination. Systematic hospital-level variation in patient risk factors requires risk adjustment to avoid considerably different classification of hospitals by outcome performance. An opportunity exists to define this metric and report such risk-adjusted outcomes to stakeholders. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Resident Physicians Improve Nontechnical Skills When on Operating Room Management and Leadership Rotation.

PubMed

Cole, Devon C; Giordano, Christopher R; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fahy, Brenda G

2017-01-01

Anesthesiology residency primarily emphasizes the development of medical knowledge and technical skills. Yet, nontechnical skills (NTS) are also vital to successful clinical practice. Elements of NTS are communication, teamwork, situational awareness, and decision making. The first 10 consecutive senior residents who chose to participate in this 2-week elective rotation of operating room (OR) management and leadership training were enrolled in this study, which spanned from March 2013 to March 2015. Each resident served as the anesthesiology officer of the day (AOD) and was tasked with coordinating OR assignments, managing care for 2 to 4 ORs, and being on call for the trauma OR; all residents were supervised by an attending AOD. Leadership and NTS techniques were taught via a standardized curriculum consisting of leadership and team training articles, crisis management text, and daily debriefings. Resident self-ratings and attending AOD and charge nurse raters used the Anaesthetists' Non-Technical Skills (ANTS) scoring system, which involved task management, situational awareness, teamwork, and decision making. For each of the 10 residents in their third year of clinical anesthesiology training (CA-3) who participated in this elective rotation, there were 14 items that required feedback from resident self-assessment and OR raters, including the daily attending AOD and charge nurse. Results for each of the items on the questionnaire were compared between the beginning and the end of the rotation with the Wilcoxon signed-rank test for matched samples. Comparisons were run separately for attending AOD and charge nurse assessments and resident self-assessments. Scaled rankings were analyzed for the Kendall coefficient of concordance (ω) for rater agreement with associated χ and P value. Common themes identified by the residents during debriefings were recurrence of challenging situations and the skills residents needed to instruct and manage clinical teams. For attending AOD and charge nurse assessments, resident performance of NTS improved from the beginning to the end of the rotation on 12 of the 14 NTS items (P < .05), whereas resident self-assessment improved on 3 NTS items (P < .05). Interrater reliability (across the charge nurse, resident, and AOD raters) ranged from ω = .36 to .61 at the beginning of the rotation and ω = .27 to .70 at the end of the rotation. This rotation allowed for teaching and resident assessment to occur in a way that facilitated resident education in several of the skills required to meet specific milestones. Resident physicians are able to foster NTS and build a framework for clinical leadership when completing a 2-week senior elective as an OR manager.

Suicidality, problem-solving skills, attachment style, and hopelessness in Turkish students.

PubMed

Zeyrek, Emek Yüce; Gençöz, Faruk; Bergman, Yoav; Lester, David

2009-09-01

Among 180 Turkish university students, the probability of suicide was strongly predicted by both hopelessness and deficiencies in problem solving. In addition, for women, unhealthy attachment styles (preoccupied and dismissing) also predicted suicidality. The clinical implications of these findings are that psychotherapists should focus on helping suicidal adolescents improve their problem solving skills and decreasing their hopelessness and, for women, assisting them to develop healthier relationship styles.

Reading skill and word skipping: Implications for visual and linguistic accounts of word skipping.

PubMed

Eskenazi, Michael A; Folk, Jocelyn R

2015-11-01

We investigated whether high-skill readers skip more words than low-skill readers as a result of parafoveal processing differences based on reading skill. We manipulated foveal load and word length, two variables that strongly influence word skipping, and measured reading skill using the Nelson-Denny Reading Test. We found that reading skill did not influence the probability of skipping five-letter words, but low-skill readers were less likely to skip three-letter words when foveal load was high. Thus, reading skill is likely to influence word skipping when the amount of information in the parafovea falls within the word identification span. We interpret the data in the context of visual-based (extended optimal viewing position model) and linguistic based (E-Z Reader model) accounts of word skipping. The models make different predictions about how and why a word and skipped; however, the data indicate that both models should take into account the fact that different factors influence skipping rates for high- and low-skill readers. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Teaching active listening skills to pre-service speech-language pathologists: a first step in supporting collaboration with parents of young children who require AAC.

PubMed

Thistle, Jennifer J; McNaughton, David

2015-01-01

This study examined the effect of instruction in an active listening strategy on the communication skills of pre-service speech-language pathologists (SLPs). Twenty-three pre-service SLPs in their 2nd year of graduate study received a brief strategy instruction in active listening skills. Participants were videotaped during a simulated parent meeting before and after the strategy instruction. Simulated parent meetings addressed issues that parents of children who use augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) may face. Social validity measures were gathered from the participants and from parents of children who use AAC. Pre- and postinstruction use of the active listening strategy was scored and compared using a Wilcoxon signed-ranks test, with statistically significant results. Postinstruction scores were significantly higher than preinstruction scores, providing evidence of the effectiveness of the instruction. Furthermore, participants and parents of children who use AAC described the postinstruction interactions more positively than the preinstruction interactions, suggesting that the pre-service SLPs benefited from the instruction. The current study provides evidence of the effectiveness of strategy instruction in active listening skills that may be incorporated into SLP preparation programs.

Ages of Records in Random Walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Réka; Vető, Bálint

2016-12-01

We consider random walks with continuous and symmetric step distributions. We prove universal asymptotics for the average proportion of the age of the kth longest lasting record for k=1,2,ldots and for the probability that the record of the kth longest age is broken at step n. Due to the relation to the Chinese restaurant process, the ranked sequence of proportions of ages converges to the Poisson-Dirichlet distribution.

Competition in the Brain. The Contribution of EEG and fNIRS Modulation and Personality Effects in Social Ranking.

PubMed

Balconi, Michela; Vanutelli, Maria E

2016-01-01

In the present study, the social ranking perception in competition was explored. Brain response (alpha band oscillations, EEG; hemodynamic activity, O2Hb), as well as self-perception of social ranking, cognitive performance, and personality trait (Behavioral Activation System, BAS) were considered during a competitive joint-action. Subjects were required to develop a strategy to obtain a better outcome than a competitor (C) (in term of error rate, and response time, RT). A pre-feedback (without a specific feedback on the performance) and a post-feedback condition (which reinforced the improved performance) were provided. It was found that higher-BAS participants responded in greater measure to perceived higher cognitive performance (post-feedback condition), with increased left prefrontal activity, higher ranking perception, and a better real performance (reduced RTs). These results were explained in term of increased sense of self-efficacy and social position, probably based on higher-BAS sensitivity to reinforcing conditions. In addition, the hemispheric effect in favor of the left side characterized the competitive behavior, showing an imbalance for high-BAS in comparison to low-BAS in the case of a rewarding (post-feedback) context. Therefore, the present results confirmed the significance of BAS in modulating brain responsiveness, self-perceived social position, and real performance during an interpersonal competitive action which is considered highly relevant for social status.

Low-Rank Discriminant Embedding for Multiview Learning.

PubMed

Li, Jingjing; Wu, Yue; Zhao, Jidong; Lu, Ke

2017-11-01

This paper focuses on the specific problem of multiview learning where samples have the same feature set but different probability distributions, e.g., different viewpoints or different modalities. Since samples lying in different distributions cannot be compared directly, this paper aims to learn a latent subspace shared by multiple views assuming that the input views are generated from this latent subspace. Previous approaches usually learn the common subspace by either maximizing the empirical likelihood, or preserving the geometric structure. However, considering the complementarity between the two objectives, this paper proposes a novel approach, named low-rank discriminant embedding (LRDE), for multiview learning by taking full advantage of both sides. By further considering the duality between data points and features of multiview scene, i.e., data points can be grouped based on their distribution on features, while features can be grouped based on their distribution on the data points, LRDE not only deploys low-rank constraints on both sample level and feature level to dig out the shared factors across different views, but also preserves geometric information in both the ambient sample space and the embedding feature space by designing a novel graph structure under the framework of graph embedding. Finally, LRDE jointly optimizes low-rank representation and graph embedding in a unified framework. Comprehensive experiments in both multiview manner and pairwise manner demonstrate that LRDE performs much better than previous approaches proposed in recent literatures.

Integrating Geologic, Geochemical and Geophysical Data in a Statistical Analysis of Geothermal Resource Probability across the State of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautze, N. C.; Ito, G.; Thomas, D. M.; Hinz, N.; Frazer, L. N.; Waller, D.

2015-12-01

Hawaii offers the opportunity to gain knowledge and develop geothermal energy on the only oceanic hotspot in the U.S. As a remote island state, Hawaii is more dependent on imported fossil fuel than any other state in the U.S., and energy prices are 3 to 4 times higher than the national average. The only proven resource, located on Hawaii Island's active Kilauea volcano, is a region of high geologic risk; other regions of probable resource exist but lack adequate assessment. The last comprehensive statewide geothermal assessment occurred in 1983 and found a potential resource on all islands (Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1983). Phase 1 of a Department of Energy funded project to assess the probability of geothermal resource potential statewide in Hawaii was recently completed. The execution of this project was divided into three main tasks: (1) compile all historical and current data for Hawaii that is relevant to geothermal resources into a single Geographic Information System (GIS) project; (2) analyze and rank these datasets in terms of their relevance to the three primary properties of a viable geothermal resource: heat (H), fluid (F), and permeability (P); and (3) develop and apply a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the ranks and produce probability models that map out Hawaii's geothermal resource potential. Here, we summarize the project methodology and present maps that highlight both high prospect areas as well as areas that lack enough data to make an adequate assessment. We suggest a path for future exploration activities in Hawaii, and discuss how this method of analysis can be adapted to other regions and other types of resources. The figure below shows multiple layers of GIS data for Hawaii Island. Color shades indicate crustal density anomalies produced from inversions of gravity (Flinders et al. 2013). Superimposed on this are mapped calderas, rift zones, volcanic cones, and faults (following Sherrod et al., 2007). These features were used to identify probable locations of intrusive rock (heat) and permeability.

A risk-based multi-objective model for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naserizade, Sareh S.; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Montaseri, Hossein

2018-02-01

In this study, a new stochastic model based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and multi-objective optimization methods is developed for optimal placement of sensors in water distribution system (WDS). This model determines minimization of risk which is caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS using CVaR approach. The CVaR considers uncertainties of contamination injection in the form of probability distribution function and calculates low-probability extreme events. In this approach, extreme losses occur at tail of the losses distribution function. Four-objective optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm is developed to minimize losses of contamination injection (through CVaR of affected population and detection time) and also minimize the two other main criteria of optimal placement of sensors including probability of undetected events and cost. Finally, to determine the best solution, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), as a subgroup of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach, is utilized to rank the alternatives on the trade-off curve among objective functions. Also, sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the importance of each criterion on PROMETHEE results considering three relative weighting scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is examined through applying it to Lamerd WDS in the southwestern part of Iran. The PROMETHEE suggests 6 sensors with suitable distribution that approximately cover all regions of WDS. Optimal values related to CVaR of affected population and detection time as well as probability of undetected events for the best optimal solution are equal to 17,055 persons, 31 mins and 0.045%, respectively. The obtained results of the proposed methodology in Lamerd WDS show applicability of CVaR-based multi-objective simulation-optimization model for incorporating the main uncertainties of contamination injection in order to evaluate extreme value of losses in WDS.

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Dumville, Jo C.; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Background Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. Objectives To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. Methods We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. Main results We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). Conclusions This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties. PMID:29474359

Support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention: A network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shi, Chunhu; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky

2018-01-01

Pressure ulcers are a prevalent and global issue and support surfaces are widely used for preventing ulceration. However, the diversity of available support surfaces and the lack of direct comparisons in RCTs make decision-making difficult. To determine, using network meta-analysis, the relative effects of different support surfaces in reducing pressure ulcer incidence and comfort and to rank these support surfaces in order of their effectiveness. We conducted a systematic review, using a literature search up to November 2016, to identify randomised trials comparing support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We grouped the support surfaces according to their characteristics and formed evidence networks using these groups. We used network meta-analysis to estimate the relative effects and effectiveness ranking of the groups for the outcomes of pressure ulcer incidence and participant comfort. GRADE was used to assess the certainty of evidence. We included 65 studies in the review. The network for assessing pressure ulcer incidence comprised evidence of low or very low certainty for most network contrasts. There was moderate-certainty evidence that powered active air surfaces and powered hybrid air surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence compared with standard hospital surfaces (risk ratios (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.29 to 0.63; 0.22, 0.07 to 0.66, respectively). The network for comfort suggested that powered active air-surfaces are probably slightly less comfortable than standard hospital mattresses (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94; moderate-certainty evidence). This is the first network meta-analysis of the effects of support surfaces for pressure ulcer prevention. Powered active air-surfaces probably reduce pressure ulcer incidence, but are probably less comfortable than standard hospital surfaces. Most prevention evidence was of low or very low certainty, and more research is required to reduce these uncertainties.

Post-traumatic stress is associated with verbal learning, memory, and psychomotor speed in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women.

PubMed

Rubin, Leah H; Pyra, Maria; Cook, Judith A; Weber, Kathleen M; Cohen, Mardge H; Martin, Eileen; Valcour, Victor; Milam, Joel; Anastos, Kathryn; Young, Mary A; Alden, Christine; Gustafson, Deborah R; Maki, Pauline M

2016-04-01

The prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is higher among HIV-infected (HIV+) women compared with HIV-uninfected (HIV-) women, and deficits in episodic memory are a common feature of both PTSD and HIV infection. We investigated the association between a probable PTSD diagnosis using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian (PCL-C) version and verbal learning and memory using the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test in 1004 HIV+ and 496 at-risk HIV- women. HIV infection was not associated with a probable PTSD diagnosis (17% HIV+, 16% HIV-; p = 0.49) but was associated with lower verbal learning (p < 0.01) and memory scores (p < 0.01). Irrespective of HIV status, a probable PTSD diagnosis was associated with poorer performance in verbal learning (p < 0.01) and memory (p < 0.01) and psychomotor speed (p < 0.001). The particular pattern of cognitive correlates of probable PTSD varied depending on exposure to sexual abuse and/or violence, with exposure to either being associated with a greater number of cognitive domains and a worse cognitive profile. A statistical interaction between HIV serostatus and PTSD was observed on the fine motor skills domain (p = 0.03). Among women with probable PTSD, HIV- women performed worse than HIV+ women on fine motor skills (p = 0.01), but among women without probable PTSD, there was no significant difference in performance between the groups (p = 0.59). These findings underscore the importance of considering mental health factors as correlates to cognitive deficits in women with HIV.

Metric on the space of quantum states from relative entropy. Tomographic reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Man'ko, Vladimir I.; Marmo, Giuseppe; Ventriglia, Franco; Vitale, Patrizia

2017-08-01

In the framework of quantum information geometry, we derive, from quantum relative Tsallis entropy, a family of quantum metrics on the space of full rank, N level quantum states, by means of a suitably defined coordinate free differential calculus. The cases N=2, N=3 are discussed in detail and notable limits are analyzed. The radial limit procedure has been used to recover quantum metrics for lower rank states, such as pure states. By using the tomographic picture of quantum mechanics we have obtained the Fisher-Rao metric for the space of quantum tomograms and derived a reconstruction formula of the quantum metric of density states out of the tomographic one. A new inequality obtained for probabilities of three spin-1/2 projections in three perpendicular directions is proposed to be checked in experiments with superconducting circuits.

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

2016-01-01

Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

Nurses' views on the characteristics of an effective leader.

PubMed

Feltner, Arta; Mitchell, Barbara; Norris, Elfi; Wolfle, Clara

2008-02-01

Effective leadership can promote a satisfying and productive work environment in which staff members positively contribute to the success of the organization. Nurses at a magnet hospital in Florida undertook a project to determine what staff nurses believed were the characteristics of an effective leader. Using one-on-one interviews and surveys, the project team discovered that the most highly ranked qualities and characteristics of an effective leader included effective communication skills, fairness, and knowledge about staff members' jobs.

An Investigation of the Facets for Converting Military Authorizations for Maintenance Personnel to Civilian Positions

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

have a significant effect on the worker whether military or civilian, but the primary impact 4 may occur while both types work side by side. Performance ...32 - . - - have important consequences for the organization’s members (3:226). Performance appraisals can effect the worker at any time but the impact ... employee (3:227). There are a large number of variables related to personnel performance including "training, experience, skill-level and rank distribution

Electrocardiogram interpretation skills among ambulance nurses.

PubMed

Werner, Kristoffer; Kander, Kristofer; Axelsson, Christer

2016-06-01

To describe ambulance nurses' practical electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation skills and to measure the correlation between these skills and factors that may impact on the level of knowledge. This study was conducted using a prospective quantitative survey with questionnaires and a knowledge test. A convenience sample collection was conducted among ambulance nurses in three different districts in western Sweden. The knowledge test consisted of nine different ECGs. The score of the ECG test were correlated against the questions in the questionnaire regarding both general ECG interpretation skill and ability to identify acute myocardial infarction using Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test and Spearman's rank correlation. On average, the respondents had 54% correct answers on the test and identified 46% of the ECGs indicating acute myocardial infarction. The median total score was 9 of 16 (interquartile range 7-11) and 1 of 3 (IQR 1-2) in infarction points. No correlation between ECG interpretation skill and factors such as education and professional experience was found, except that coronary care unit experience was associated with better results on the ECG test. Ambulance nurses have deficiencies in their ECG interpretation skills. This also applies to conditions where the ambulance crew has great potential to improve the outcome of the patient's health, such as myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest. Neither education, extensive experience in ambulance service nor in nursing contributed to an improved result. The only factor of importance for higher ECG interpretation knowledge was prior experience of working in a coronary care unit. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

Utilization of standardized patients to evaluate clinical and interpersonal skills of surgical residents.

PubMed

Hassett, James M; Zinnerstrom, Karen; Nawotniak, Ruth H; Schimpfhauser, Frank; Dayton, Merril T

2006-10-01

This project was designed to determine the growth of interpersonal skills during the first year of a surgical residency. All categorical surgical residents were given a clinical skills examination of abdominal pain using standardized patients during their orientation (T1). The categorical residents were retested after 11 months (T2). The assessment tool was based on a 12-item modified version of the 5-point Likert Interpersonal Scale (IP) used on the National Board of Medical Examiners prototype Clinical Skills Examination and a 24-item, done-or-not-done, history-taking checklist. Residents' self-evaluation scores were compared to standardized patients' assessment scores. Data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Student t test, and Cronbach alpha. Thirty-eight categorical residents were evaluated at T1 and T2. At T1, in the history-taking exercise, the scores of the standardized patients and residents correlated (Pearson = .541, P = .000). In the interpersonal skills exercise, the scores of the standardized patients and residents did not correlate (Pearson = -0.238, P = .150). At T2, there was a significant improvement in the residents' self-evaluation scores in both the history-taking exercise (t = -3.280, P = .002) and the interpersonal skills exercise (t = 2.506, P = 0.017). In the history-taking exercise, the standardized patients' assessment scores correlated with the residents' self-evaluation scores (Pearson = 0.561, P = .000). In the interpersonal skills exercise, the standardized patients' assessment scores did not correlate with the residents' self-evaluation scores (Pearson = 0.078, P = .646). Surgical residents demonstrate a consistently low level of self-awareness regarding their interpersonal skills. Observed improvement in resident self-evaluation may be a function of growth in self-confidence.

Landscape- and local-scale habitat influences on occupancy and detection probability of stream-dwelling crayfish: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Nolen, Matthew S.; Wagner, Brian K.

2017-01-01

Crayfish are ecologically important in freshwater systems worldwide and are imperiled in North America and globally. We sought to examine landscape- to local-scale environmental variables related to occupancy and detection probability of a suite of stream-dwelling crayfish species. We used a quantitative kickseine method to sample crayfish presence at 102 perennial stream sites with eight surveys per site. We modeled occupancy (psi) and detection probability (P) and local- and landscape-scale environmental covariates. We developed a set of a priori candidate models for each species and ranked models using (Q)AICc. Detection probabilities and occupancy estimates differed among crayfish species with Orconectes eupunctus, O. marchandi, and Cambarus hubbsi being relatively rare (psi < 0.20) with moderate (0.46–0.60) to high (0.81) detection probability and O. punctimanus and O. ozarkae being relatively common (psi > 0.60) with high detection probability (0.81). Detection probability was often related to local habitat variables current velocity, depth, or substrate size. Important environmental variables for crayfish occupancy were species dependent but were mainly landscape variables such as stream order, geology, slope, topography, and land use. Landscape variables strongly influenced crayfish occupancy and should be considered in future studies and conservation plans.

Application of statistical methods to reveal and remove the causes of welding of coil laps upon annealing of cold-rolled steel strips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garber, E. A.; Diligenskii, E. V.; Antonov, P. V.; Shalaevskii, D. L.; Dyatlov, I. A.

2017-09-01

The factors of the process of production of cold-rolled steel strips that promote and hinder the appearance of a coil lap welding defect upon annealing in bell-type furnaces are analyzed using statistical methods. The works dealing with this problem are analytically reviewed to reveal the problems to be studied and refined. The ranking of the technological factors according to the significance of their influence on the probability of appearance of this defect is determined and supported by industrial data, and a regression equation is derived to calculate this probability. The process of production is improved to minimize the rejection of strips caused by the welding of coil laps.

A serious game for improving the decision making skills and knowledge levels of Turkish football referees according to the laws of the game.

PubMed

Gulec, Ulas; Yilmaz, Murat

2016-01-01

Digital game-based learning environments provide emerging opportunities to overcome learning barriers by combining newly developed technologies and traditional game design. This study proposes a quantitative research approach supported by expert validation interviews to designing a game-based learning framework. The goal is to improve the learning experience and decision-making skills of soccer referees in Turkey. A serious game was developed and tested on a group of referees (N = 54). The assessment results of these referees were compared with two sample t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-ranked test for both the experimental group and the control group. The findings of the current study confirmed that a game-based learning environment has greater merit over the paper-based alternatives.

Evolving Graduate Programs in Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Impey, C. D.

2002-12-01

At the University of Arizona, as in many other top-ranked research institutions, there is a tension between the desire to give student broad enough skills for the workplace with the demands of the specific academic discipline. 2/3 of the Astronomy graduate students at Steward Observatory go on to permanent jobs at universities or observatories, but some of our most successful graduates take more diverse career paths. We do not wish to sacrifice academic rigor in astrophysics or the primary goal of training students in research. However, we are creating opportunities for (a) students to take M.Sc. and eventually Ph.D. degrees with a specialization in education, and (b) students with technical skills to have Ph.D. minors in optics, applied physics, or ECE. This second initiative is the subject of a pending NSF/IGERT proposal, with the science theme "Search for other Worlds."

Health care administration in the year 2000: practitioners' views of future issues and job requirements.

PubMed

Hudak, R P; Brooke, P P; Finstuen, K; Riley, P

1993-01-01

This research identifies the most important domains in health care administration (HCA) from now to the year 2000 and differentiates job skill, knowledge, and ability requirements necessary for successful management. Fellows of the American College of Healthcare Executives from about half of the United States responded to two iterations of a Delphi mail inquiry. Fellows identified 102 issues that were content-analyzed into nine domains by an HCA expert panel. Domains, in order of ranked importance, were cost/finance, leadership, professional staff interactions, health care delivery concepts, accessibility, ethics, quality/risk management, technology, and marketing. In the second Delphi iteration, Fellows reviewed domain results and rated job requirements on required job importance. Results indicated that while a business orientation is needed for organizational survival, an equal emphasis on person-oriented skills, knowledge, and abilities is required.

A survey of Canadian medical physicists: software quality assurance of in‐house software

PubMed Central

Kelly, Diane

2015-01-01

This paper reports on a survey of medical physicists who write and use in‐house written software as part of their professional work. The goal of the survey was to assess the extent of in‐house software usage and the desire or need for related software quality guidelines. The survey contained eight multiple‐choice questions, a ranking question, and seven free text questions. The survey was sent to medical physicists associated with cancer centers across Canada. The respondents to the survey expressed interest in having guidelines to help them in their software‐related work, but also demonstrated extensive skills in the area of testing, safety, and communication. These existing skills form a basis for medical physicists to establish a set of software quality guidelines. PACS number: 87.55.Qr PMID:25679168

Faculty development for the evaluation system: a dual agenda

PubMed Central

Oller, Kellee L; Mai, Cuc T; Ledford, Robert J; O’Brien, Kevin E

2017-01-01

Faculty development for the evaluation process serves two distinct goals. The first goal is to improve the quality of the evaluations submitted by the faculty. Providing an accurate assessment of a learner’s capabilities is a skill and, similar to other skills, can be developed with training. Frame-of-reference training serves to calibrate the faculty’s standard of performance and build a uniform language of the evaluation. Second, areas for faculty professional growth can be identified from data generated from learners’ evaluations of the faculty using narrative comments, item-level comparison reports, and comparative rank list information. This paper presents an innovative model, grounded in institutional experience and review of the literature, to provide feedback to faculty evaluators, thereby improving the reliability of the evaluation process, and motivating the professional growth of faculty as educators. PMID:28331382

Effects of Reproductive Status, Social Rank, Sex and Group Size on Vigilance Patterns in Przewalski's Gazelle

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Jiang, Zhigang; Li, Linlin; Li, Zhongqiu; Fang, Hongxia; Li, Chunwang; Beauchamp, Guy

2012-01-01

Background Quantifying vigilance and exploring the underlying mechanisms has been the subject of numerous studies. Less attention has focused on the complex interplay between contributing factors such as reproductive status, social rank, sex and group size. Reproductive status and social rank are of particular interest due to their association with mating behavior. Mating activities in rutting season may interfere with typical patterns of vigilance and possibly interact with social rank. In addition, balancing the tradeoff between vigilance and life maintenance may represent a challenge for gregarious ungulate species rutting under harsh winter conditions. We studied vigilance patterns in the endangered Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) during both the rutting and non-rutting seasons to examine these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings Field observations were carried out with focal sampling during rutting and non-rutting season in 2008–2009. Results indicated a complex interplay between reproductive status, social rank, sex and group size in determining vigilance in this species. Vigilance decreased with group size in female but not in male gazelles. Males scanned more frequently and thus spent more time vigilant than females. Compared to non-rutting season, gazelles increased time spent scanning at the expense of bedding in rutting season. During the rutting season, territorial males spent a large proportion of time on rutting activities and were less vigilant than non-territorial males. Although territorial males may share collective risk detection with harem females, we suggest that they are probably more vulnerable to predation because they seemed reluctant to leave rut stands under threats. Conclusions/Significance Vigilance behavior in Przewalski's gazelle was significantly affected by reproductive status, social rank, sex, group size and their complex interactions. These findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying vigilance patterns and the tradeoff between vigilance and other crucial activities. PMID:22389714

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Hybrid reconstruction of quantum density matrix: when low-rank meets sparsity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kezhi; Zheng, Kai; Yang, Jingbei; Cong, Shuang; Liu, Xiaomei; Li, Zhaokai

2017-12-01

Both the mathematical theory and experiments have verified that the quantum state tomography based on compressive sensing is an efficient framework for the reconstruction of quantum density states. In recent physical experiments, we found that many unknown density matrices in which people are interested in are low-rank as well as sparse. Bearing this information in mind, in this paper we propose a reconstruction algorithm that combines the low-rank and the sparsity property of density matrices and further theoretically prove that the solution of the optimization function can be, and only be, the true density matrix satisfying the model with overwhelming probability, as long as a necessary number of measurements are allowed. The solver leverages the fixed-point equation technique in which a step-by-step strategy is developed by utilizing an extended soft threshold operator that copes with complex values. Numerical experiments of the density matrix estimation for real nuclear magnetic resonance devices reveal that the proposed method achieves a better accuracy compared to some existing methods. We believe that the proposed method could be leveraged as a generalized approach and widely implemented in the quantum state estimation.

Power and sample size evaluation for the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean score (Wilcoxon rank sum) test and the Cochran-Armitage test for trend.

PubMed

Lachin, John M

2011-11-10

The power of a chi-square test, and thus the required sample size, are a function of the noncentrality parameter that can be obtained as the limiting expectation of the test statistic under an alternative hypothesis specification. Herein, we apply this principle to derive simple expressions for two tests that are commonly applied to discrete ordinal data. The Wilcoxon rank sum test for the equality of distributions in two groups is algebraically equivalent to the Mann-Whitney test. The Kruskal-Wallis test applies to multiple groups. These tests are equivalent to a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean score test using rank scores for a set of C-discrete categories. Although various authors have assessed the power function of the Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney tests, herein it is shown that the power of these tests with discrete observations, that is, with tied ranks, is readily provided by the power function of the corresponding Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean scores test for two and R > 2 groups. These expressions yield results virtually identical to those derived previously for rank scores and also apply to other score functions. The Cochran-Armitage test for trend assesses whether there is an monotonically increasing or decreasing trend in the proportions with a positive outcome or response over the C-ordered categories of an ordinal independent variable, for example, dose. Herein, it is shown that the power of the test is a function of the slope of the response probabilities over the ordinal scores assigned to the groups that yields simple expressions for the power of the test. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Corpus-Based Approach for Automatic Thai Unknown Word Recognition Using Boosting Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Techo, Jakkrit; Nattee, Cholwich; Theeramunkong, Thanaruk

While classification techniques can be applied for automatic unknown word recognition in a language without word boundary, it faces with the problem of unbalanced datasets where the number of positive unknown word candidates is dominantly smaller than that of negative candidates. To solve this problem, this paper presents a corpus-based approach that introduces a so-called group-based ranking evaluation technique into ensemble learning in order to generate a sequence of classification models that later collaborate to select the most probable unknown word from multiple candidates. Given a classification model, the group-based ranking evaluation (GRE) is applied to construct a training dataset for learning the succeeding model, by weighing each of its candidates according to their ranks and correctness when the candidates of an unknown word are considered as one group. A number of experiments have been conducted on a large Thai medical text to evaluate performance of the proposed group-based ranking evaluation approach, namely V-GRE, compared to the conventional naïve Bayes classifier and our vanilla version without ensemble learning. As the result, the proposed method achieves an accuracy of 90.93±0.50% when the first rank is selected while it gains 97.26±0.26% when the top-ten candidates are considered, that is 8.45% and 6.79% improvement over the conventional record-based naïve Bayes classifier and the vanilla version. Another result on applying only best features show 93.93±0.22% and up to 98.85±0.15% accuracy for top-1 and top-10, respectively. They are 3.97% and 9.78% improvement over naive Bayes and the vanilla version. Finally, an error analysis is given.

Development and validation of trauma surgical skills metrics: Preliminary assessment of performance after training.

PubMed

Shackelford, Stacy; Garofalo, Evan; Shalin, Valerie; Pugh, Kristy; Chen, Hegang; Pasley, Jason; Sarani, Babak; Henry, Sharon; Bowyer, Mark; Mackenzie, Colin F

2015-07-01

Maintaining trauma-specific surgical skills is an ongoing challenge for surgical training programs. An objective assessment of surgical skills is needed. We hypothesized that a validated surgical performance assessment tool could detect differences following a training intervention. We developed surgical performance assessment metrics based on discussion with expert trauma surgeons, video review of 10 experts and 10 novice surgeons performing three vascular exposure procedures and lower extremity fasciotomy on cadavers, and validated the metrics with interrater reliability testing by five reviewers blinded to level of expertise and a consensus conference. We tested these performance metrics in 12 surgical residents (Year 3-7) before and 2 weeks after vascular exposure skills training in the Advanced Surgical Skills for Exposure in Trauma (ASSET) course. Performance was assessed in three areas as follows: knowledge (anatomic, management), procedure steps, and technical skills. Time to completion of procedures was recorded, and these metrics were combined into a single performance score, the Trauma Readiness Index (TRI). Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test compared pretraining/posttraining effects. Mean time to complete procedures decreased by 4.3 minutes (from 13.4 minutes to 9.1 minutes). The performance component most improved by the 1-day skills training was procedure steps, completion of which increased by 21%. Technical skill scores improved by 12%. Overall knowledge improved by 3%, with 18% improvement in anatomic knowledge. TRI increased significantly from 50% to 64% with ASSET training. Interrater reliability of the surgical performance assessment metrics was validated with single intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.7 to 0.98. A trauma-relevant surgical performance assessment detected improvements in specific procedure steps and anatomic knowledge taught during a 1-day course, quantified by the TRI. ASSET training reduced time to complete vascular control by one third. Future applications include assessing specific skills in a larger surgeon cohort, assessing military surgical readiness, and quantifying skill degradation with time since training.

Clinical skills temporal degradation assessment in undergraduate medical education.

PubMed

Fisher, Joseph; Viscusi, Rebecca; Ratesic, Adam; Johnstone, Cameron; Kelley, Ross; Tegethoff, Angela M; Bates, Jessica; Situ-Lacasse, Elaine H; Adamas-Rappaport, William J; Amini, Richard

2018-01-01

Medical students' ability to learn clinical procedures and competently apply these skills is an essential component of medical education. Complex skills with limited opportunity for practice have been shown to degrade without continued refresher training. To our knowledge there is no evidence that objectively evaluates temporal degradation of clinical skills in undergraduate medical education. The purpose of this study was to evaluate temporal retention of clinical skills among third year medical students. This was a cross-sectional study conducted at four separate time intervals in the cadaver laboratory at a public medical school. Forty-five novice third year medical students were evaluated for retention of skills in the following three procedures: pigtail thoracostomy, femoral line placement, and endotracheal intubation. Prior to the start of third-year medical clerkships, medical students participated in a two-hour didactic session designed to teach clinically relevant materials including the procedures. Prior to the start of their respective surgery clerkships, students were asked to perform the same three procedures and were evaluated by trained emergency medicine and surgery faculty for retention rates, using three validated checklists. Students were then reassessed at six week intervals in four separate groups based on the start date of their respective surgical clerkships. We compared the evaluation results between students tested one week after training and those tested at three later dates for statistically significant differences in score distribution using a one-tailed Wilcoxon Mann-Whitney U-test for non-parametric rank-sum analysis. Retention rates were shown to have a statistically significant decline between six and 12 weeks for all three procedural skills. In the instruction of medical students, skill degradation should be considered when teaching complex technical skills. Based on the statistically significant decline in procedural skills noted in our investigation, instructors should consider administering a refresher course between six and twelve weeks from initial training.

Developing Cognitive Task Analysis-based Educational Videos for Basic Surgical Skills in Plastic Surgery.

PubMed

Yeung, Celine; McMillan, Catherine; Saun, Tomas J; Sun, Kimberly; D'hondt, Veerle; von Schroeder, Herbert P; Martou, Glykeria; Lee, Matthew; Liao, Elizabeth; Binhammer, Paul

To describe the development of cognitive task analysis (CTA)-based multimedia educational videos for surgical trainees in plastic surgery. A needs assessment survey was used to identify 5 plastic surgery skills on which to focus the educational videos. Three plastic surgeons were video-recorded performing each skill while describing the procedure, and were interviewed with probing questions. Three medical student reviewers coded transcripts and categorized each step into "action," "decision," or "assessment," and created a cognitive demands table (CDT) for each skill. The CDTs were combined into 1 table that was reviewed by the surgeons performing each skill to ensure accuracy. The final CDTs were compared against each surgeon's original transcripts. The total number of steps identified, percentage of steps shared, and the average percentage of steps omitted were calculated. Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, an urban tertiary care teaching center. Canadian junior plastic surgery residents (n = 78) were sent a needs assessment survey. Four plastic surgeons and 1 orthopedic surgeon performed the skills. Twenty-eight residents responded to the survey (36%). Subcuticular suturing, horizontal and vertical mattress suturing, hand splinting, digital nerve block, and excisional biopsy had the most number of residents (>80%) rank the skills as being skills that students should be able to perform before entering residency. The number of steps identified through CTA ranged from 12 to 29. Percentage of steps shared by all 3 surgeons for each skill ranged from 30% to 48%, while the average percentage of steps that were omitted by each surgeon ranged from 27% to 40%. Instructional videos for basic surgical skills may be generated using CTA to help experts provide comprehensive descriptions of a procedure. A CTA-based educational tool may give trainees access to a broader, objective body of knowledge, allowing them to learn decision-making processes before entering the operating room. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability, failure probability, and strength of resin-based materials for CAD/CAM restorations

PubMed Central

Lim, Kiatlin; Yap, Adrian U-Jin; Agarwalla, Shruti Vidhawan; Tan, Keson Beng-Choon; Rosa, Vinicius

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: This study investigated the Weibull parameters and 5% fracture probability of direct, indirect composites, and CAD/CAM composites. Material and Methods: Discshaped (12 mm diameter x 1 mm thick) specimens were prepared for a direct composite [Z100 (ZO), 3M-ESPE], an indirect laboratory composite [Ceramage (CM), Shofu], and two CAD/CAM composites [Lava Ultimate (LU), 3M ESPE; Vita Enamic (VE), Vita Zahnfabrik] restorations (n=30 for each group). The specimens were polished, stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C. Weibull parameters (m= modulus of Weibull, σ0= characteristic strength) and flexural strength for 5% fracture probability (σ5%) were determined using a piston-on-three-balls device at 1 MPa/s in distilled water. Statistical analysis for biaxial flexural strength analysis were performed either by both one-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc (α=0.05) or by Pearson's correlation test. Results: Ranking of m was: VE (19.5), LU (14.5), CM (11.7), and ZO (9.6). Ranking of σ0 (MPa) was: LU (218.1), ZO (210.4), CM (209.0), and VE (126.5). σ5% (MPa) was 177.9 for LU, 163.2 for CM, 154.7 for Z0, and 108.7 for VE. There was no significant difference in the m for ZO, CM, and LU. VE presented the highest m value and significantly higher than ZO. For σ0 and σ5%, ZO, CM, and LU were similar but higher than VE. Conclusion: The strength characteristics of CAD/ CAM composites vary according to their composition and microstructure. VE presented the lowest strength and highest Weibull modulus among the materials. PMID:27812614

Inverse treatment planning for spinal robotic radiosurgery: an international multi‐institutional benchmark trial

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Baus, Wolfgang; Grimm, Jimm; Lacornerie, Thomas; Nilsson, Joakim; Luchkovskyi, Sergii; Cano, Isabel Palazon; Shou, Zhenyu; Ayadi, Myriam; Treuer, Harald; Viard, Romain; Siebert, Frank‐Andre; Chan, Mark K.H.; Hildebrandt, Guido; Dunst, Jürgen; Imhoff, Detlef; Wurster, Stefan; Wolff, Robert; Romanelli, Pantaleo; Lartigau, Eric; Semrau, Robert; Soltys, Scott G.; Schweikard, Achim

2016-01-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is the accurate, conformal delivery of high‐dose radiation to well‐defined targets while minimizing normal structure doses via steep dose gradients. While inverse treatment planning (ITP) with computerized optimization algorithms are routine, many aspects of the planning process remain user‐dependent. We performed an international, multi‐institutional benchmark trial to study planning variability and to analyze preferable ITP practice for spinal robotic radiosurgery. 10 SRS treatment plans were generated for a complex‐shaped spinal metastasis with 21 Gy in 3 fractions and tight constraints for spinal cord (V14Gy<2 cc, V18Gy<0.1 cc) and target (coverage >95%). The resulting plans were rated on a scale from 1 to 4 (excellent‐poor) in five categories (constraint compliance, optimization goals, low‐dose regions, ITP complexity, and clinical acceptability) by a blinded review panel. Additionally, the plans were mathematically rated based on plan indices (critical structure and target doses, conformity, monitor units, normal tissue complication probability, and treatment time) and compared to the human rankings. The treatment plans and the reviewers' rankings varied substantially among the participating centers. The average mean overall rank was 2.4 (1.2‐4.0) and 8/10 plans were rated excellent in at least one category by at least one reviewer. The mathematical rankings agreed with the mean overall human rankings in 9/10 cases pointing toward the possibility for sole mathematical plan quality comparison. The final rankings revealed that a plan with a well‐balanced trade‐off among all planning objectives was preferred for treatment by most participants, reviewers, and the mathematical ranking system. Furthermore, this plan was generated with simple planning techniques. Our multi‐institutional planning study found wide variability in ITP approaches for spinal robotic radiosurgery. The participants', reviewers', and mathematical match on preferable treatment plans and ITP techniques indicate that agreement on treatment planning and plan quality can be reached for spinal robotic radiosurgery. PACS number(s): 87.55.de PMID:27167291

A Sensitivity Analysis of Circular Error Probable Approximation Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CIRCULAR ERROR PROBABLE APPROXIMATION TECHNIQUES THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force...programming skills. Major Paul Auclair patiently advised me in this endeavor, and Major Andy Howell added numerous insightful contributions. I thank my...techniques. The two ret(st accuratec techniiques require numerical integration and can take several hours to run ov a personal comlputer [2:1-2,4-6]. Some

Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

PubMed Central

Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Need to Assess the Skill of Ecosystem Models Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. Northeast US Atlantis Marine Ecosystem Model We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. Skill Assessment Is Both Possible and Advisable We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment). PMID:26731540

Video Ratings of Surgical Skill and Late Outcomes of Bariatric Surgery

PubMed Central

Scally, Christopher P.; Varban, Oliver A.; Carlin, Arthur M.; Birkmeyer, John D.; Dimick, Justin B.

2018-01-01

Importance Measures of surgeons’ skill have been associated with variations in short-term outcomes after laparoscopic gastric bypass. However, the impact of surgical skill on long-term outcomes after bariatric surgery is unknown. Objective To study the association between surgical skill and long-term outcomes of bariatric surgery Design Surgeons were ranked on their skill level through blinded peer video review, and sorted into quartiles of skill. Outcomes of bariatric surgery were then examined at the patient level across skill levels. Setting The Michigan Bariatric Surgical Collaborative, a prospective clinical registry of 40 hospitals performing bariatric surgery in the state of Michigan Participants 20 surgeons performing bariatric surgery who submitted videos for anonymous peer ratings; patients undergoing surgery with these surgeons for whom one year follow-up data postoperatively was available. Exposure Surgeon skill level. Main Outcome Measures Excess body weight loss at one year; resolution of medical comorbidities (hypertension, sleep apnea, diabetes, hyperlipidemia), functional status, patient satisfaction. Results Peer ratings of surgical skill varied from 2.6 to 4.8 on a 5-point scale. There was no difference between the best (top 25%) and worst (bottom 25%) performance quartiles when comparing excess body weight loss (67.2% excess body weight loss vs 68.5%, p=.89) at one year. There were no differences in resolution of sleep apnea (62.6% vs 62.0%, p=.77), hypertension (47.1% vs 45.4%, p=.73), or hyperlipidemia (52.3% vs 63.4%, p=.45). Surgeons with the lowest skill rating had patients with higher rates of diabetes resolution (78.8%) when compared to the high-skill group (72.8%, p=0.01). Conclusions and Relevance In contrast to its impact on early complications, surgical skill did not impact postoperative weight loss or resolution of medical comorbidities at one year after laparoscopic gastric bypass. These findings suggest that long-term outcomes after bariatric surgery may be less dependent on a surgeon’s operative skill and instead be driven by other factors. Operative technique was not assessed in this analysis and should be considered in future studies. PMID:27074114

The integration of lexical, syntactic, and discourse features in bilingual adolescents' writing: an exploratory approach.

PubMed

Danzak, Robin L

2011-10-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the bilingual writing of adolescent English language learners (ELLs) using quantitative tools. Linguistic measures were applied to the participants' writing at the lexical, syntactic, and discourse levels, with the goal of comparing outcomes at each of these levels across languages (Spanish/English) and genres (expository/narrative). Twenty Spanish-speaking ELLs, ages 11-14 years, each produced 8 expository and narrative autobiographical texts. Texts were coded and scored for lexical sophistication, syntactic complexity, and overall text quality. Scores were analyzed using Friedman's 2-way analysis of variance by ranks (Siegel & Castellan, 1988); resulting ranks were compared across languages and genre topics. The text topic impacted rank differences at all levels. Performance at the three levels was similar across languages, indicating that participants were emerging writers in both Spanish and English. The impact of genre was generally inconsequential at all levels. Similar results across languages implied the potential transfer of writing skills. Overall, students appeared to apply a knowledge-telling strategy to writing rather than strategically planning, composing, and revising their writing. Finally, outcomes highlighted the synergistic relationships among linguistic levels in text composition, indicating a need to address the interaction of vocabulary, morphosyntax, and text-level structures in the instruction and assessment of ELL writing.

Student Levels of Cognitive Development: Establishing Links between Logical Thinking Skills and Success in Earth Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steer, D. N.; McConnell, D. A.; Owens, K.

2003-12-01

Students in inquiry-based, general education Earth Science courses were found to display a wide range of logical thinking skills that are known indicators of success in science courses. The Group Assessment of Logical Thinking instrument that tests six logical operations was administered on the first day of class and near the end of the course. Such tests can be used to assess a student's overall level of cognitive development (concrete, transitional or formal) and specific logical thinking strengths or weaknesses. Results from paired pre- and post-course logical thinking tests of 393 students indicated that 25% of the incoming students were concrete, 30% were transitional and 45% were formal thinkers. Concrete and transitional thinkers were far more likely to withdraw from or fail the course when compared to their formal thinking peers (35%, 25% and 10% respectively). Differences in scores between genders were significant with 210 females testing at 30% concrete, 35% transitional and 35% formal on the pretest compared to 183 males who tested 15% concrete, 25% transitional and 60% formal. Overall logical thinking scores of students increased significantly in every inquiry-based class with lecture-based classes showing overall lower increases. Post-test data indicated that there were fewer concrete thinkers (16% female, 7% male), little change in the number of transitional thinkers (30% female, 23% male) and more formal thinkers (54% female, 70% male) toward the end of the inquiry-based course. Scores on two of the logical operations, conservation and probability, were sufficient to separate those who received a high grade (A or B in course) from those were unsuccessful (D, F or withdrew). Students who score low in conservation operations (n=46) tend to rely on intuition rather than logic when trying to understand typical Earth System concepts such as plate tectonics, atmospheric processes and climate change. Students who score low in probability skills (n=46) have difficulty distinguishing the difference between unrelated, but possible, data and those data that confirm a supposition. Such skills are necessary to properly apply the scientific method. By the end of the course, unsuccessful concrete students improved conservation reasoning skills to the same levels of their higher performing concrete peers on the post-test but remained behind them in probability skills. Successful transitional thinkers (n=50) displayed better correlation-reasoning skills than their lower performing contemporaries (n=51). Correlation reasoning skills are necessary to understand some of the many causal relationships routinely developed in the Earth Sciences (e.g. those associated with plate tectonics and earthquakes or volcanoes; CO2 and global climate change).

Evaluation of the ASVAB (Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery) 8/ 9/10 Clerical Composite for Predicting Training School Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

specific predictor such as clerical speed or psychomotor skill , since the AR test would probably predict success equally well in many different areas...to specific occupational skills . Ř? When the aptitude area system was reconstituted in 1958, each composite contained only two tests, one measuring... literacy into each composite was that the composites were highly intercorrelated. The same aptitude composites developed for ACB-73 were also used

Publication Productivity and Experience: Factors Associated with Academic Rank Among Orthopaedic Surgery Faculty in the United States.

PubMed

Ence, Andrew K; Cope, Seth R; Holliday, Emma B; Somerson, Jeremy S

2016-05-18

Many factors play a role in academic promotion among orthopaedic surgeons. This study specifically examined the importance of publication productivity metrics, career duration, and sex on academic rank in orthopaedic surgery programs in the United States. Faculty at 142 civilian academic orthopaedic surgery departments in 2014 were identified. Geographic region, department size, and 3 specific faculty characteristics (sex, career duration, and academic position) were recorded. The Hirsch index (h-index), defined as the number (h) of an investigator's publications that have been cited at least h times, was recorded for each surgeon. The m-index was also calculated by dividing the h-index by career duration in years. Thresholds for the h-index and the m-index were identified between junior and senior academic ranks. Multivariate analysis was used to determine whether the 3 physician factors correlated independently with academic rank. The analysis included 4,663 orthopaedic surgeons at 142 academic institutions (24.7% clinical faculty and 75.3% academic faculty). Among academic faculty, the median h-index was 5, the median career duration was 15 years, and the median m-index was 0.37. Thresholds between junior and senior faculty status were 12 for the h-index and 0.51 for the m-index. Female academic faculty had a lower median h-index (3 compared with 5; p < 0.001) and career duration (10 years compared with 16 years; p < 0.001) than male academic faculty, but had a similar median m-index (0.33 compared with 0.38; p = 0.103). A higher h-index and longer career duration correlated independently with an increased probability of senior academic rank (p < 0.001), but sex did not (p = 0.217). This analysis demonstrates that a higher h-index and m-index correlate with a higher academic orthopaedic faculty rank. Although female surgeons had a lower median h-index and a shorter median career duration than male surgeons, their m-index was not significantly different, and thus sex was not an independent predictor for senior academic rank. The identified thresholds (h-index of 12 and m-index of 0.51) between junior and senior academic ranks may be considered as factors in promotion considerations. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

How gender impacts career development and leadership in rehabilitation medicine: a report from the AAPM&R research committee.

PubMed

Wagner, Amy K; McElligott, Jacinta; Chan, Leighton; Wagner, Eugene P; Segal, Neil A; Gerber, Lynn H

2007-05-01

To examine the role that gender plays in meeting the medical academic mission by assessing career development, leadership, and research productivity among rehabilitation researchers. Prospective, cross-sectional cohort study. National survey. Three hundred sixty rehabilitation professionals linked to the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Association of Academic Physiatrists, and/or the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Online or paper survey. Research skills, resources and productivity, salary, leadership, and academic advancement. Results suggested that women rated themselves as being less skilled and having fewer resources for research compared with their male counterparts. Additionally, significantly fewer women applied for grant funding and had a lower publication rate compared with men. A proportionally larger number of women remained at lower academic ranks than men, and fewer women achieved senior academic ranks or positions of leadership. Even after adjusting for potential confounding factors, female sex remained a significant variable associated with lower salaries and lower manuscript production. Unlike men, female respondents tended to believe that being a woman was a negative factor with respect to academic advancement, leadership opportunities, salary, and resources. Female rehabilitation researchers were less developed professionally than their male counterparts and saw themselves as disadvantaged. These findings have potential implications for attracting women into rehabilitation research and the rehabilitation research community's efforts to sustain its academic mission, to improve research capacity, and to meet the needs of the 52 million people in the United States with disabilities.

Relative importance of professional practice and engineering management competencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pons, Dirk

2016-09-01

Problem: The professional practice of engineering always involves engineering management, but it is difficult to know what specifically to include in the undergraduate curriculum. Approach: The population of New Zealand practising engineers was surveyed to determine the importance they placed on specific professional practice and engineering management competencies. Findings: Results show that communication and project planning were the two most important topics, followed by others as identified. The context in which practitioners use communication skills was found to be primarily with project management, with secondary contexts identified. The necessity for engineers to develop the ability to use multiple soft skills in an integrative manner is strongly supported by the data. Originality: This paper is one of only a few large-scale surveys of practising engineers to have explored the soft skill attributes. It makes a didactic contribution of providing a ranked list of topics which can be used for designing the curriculum and prioritising teaching effort, which has not previously been achieved. It yields the new insight that combinations of topics are sometimes more important than individual topics.

Evaluation of the stability indices for the thunderstorm forecasting in the region of Belgrade, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, D.; Paskota, M.; Todorović, N.; Vučković, V.

2015-07-01

The pre-convective atmosphere over Serbia during the ten-year period (2001-2010) was investigated using the radiosonde data from one meteorological station and the thunderstorm observations from thirteen SYNOP meteorological stations. In order to verify their ability to forecast a thunderstorm, several stability indices were examined. Rank sum scores (RSSs) were used to segregate indices and parameters which can differentiate between a thunderstorm and no-thunderstorm event. The following indices had the best RSS values: Lifted index (LI), K index (KI), Showalter index (SI), Boyden index (BI), Total totals (TT), dew-point temperature and mixing ratio. The threshold value test was used in order to determine the appropriate threshold values for these variables. The threshold with the best skill scores was chosen as the optimal. The thresholds were validated in two ways: through the control data set, and comparing the calculated indices thresholds with the values of indices for a randomly chosen day with an observed thunderstorm. The index with the highest skill for thunderstorm forecasting was LI, and then SI, KI and TT. The BI had the poorest skill scores.

A Mind of Their Own: Using Inquiry-based Teaching to Build Critical Thinking Skills and Intellectual Engagement in an Undergraduate Neuroanatomy Course

PubMed Central

Greenwald, Ralf R.; Quitadamo, Ian J.

2014-01-01

A changing undergraduate demographic and the need to help students develop advanced critical thinking skills in neuroanatomy courses has prompted many faculty to consider new teaching methods including clinical case studies. This study compared primarily conventional and inquiry-based clinical case (IBCC) teaching methods to determine which would produce greater gains in critical thinking and content knowledge. Results showed students in the conventional neuroanatomy course gained less than 3 national percentile ranks while IBCC students gained over 7.5 within one academic term using the valid and reliable California Critical Thinking Skills Test. In addition to 2.5 times greater gains in critical thinking, IBCC teaching methods also produced 12% greater final exam performance and 11% higher grades using common grade performance benchmarks. Classroom observations also indicated that IBCC students were more intellectually engaged and participated to a greater extent in classroom discussions. Through the results of this study, it is hoped that faculty who teach neuroanatomy and desire greater critical thinking and content student learning outcomes will consider using the IBCC method. PMID:24693256

A Mind of Their Own: Using Inquiry-based Teaching to Build Critical Thinking Skills and Intellectual Engagement in an Undergraduate Neuroanatomy Course.

PubMed

Greenwald, Ralf R; Quitadamo, Ian J

2014-01-01

A changing undergraduate demographic and the need to help students develop advanced critical thinking skills in neuroanatomy courses has prompted many faculty to consider new teaching methods including clinical case studies. This study compared primarily conventional and inquiry-based clinical case (IBCC) teaching methods to determine which would produce greater gains in critical thinking and content knowledge. Results showed students in the conventional neuroanatomy course gained less than 3 national percentile ranks while IBCC students gained over 7.5 within one academic term using the valid and reliable California Critical Thinking Skills Test. In addition to 2.5 times greater gains in critical thinking, IBCC teaching methods also produced 12% greater final exam performance and 11% higher grades using common grade performance benchmarks. Classroom observations also indicated that IBCC students were more intellectually engaged and participated to a greater extent in classroom discussions. Through the results of this study, it is hoped that faculty who teach neuroanatomy and desire greater critical thinking and content student learning outcomes will consider using the IBCC method.

The competitiveness versus the wealth of a country.

PubMed

Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Kenett, Dror Y; Stanley, H Eugene

2012-01-01

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its per capita GDP (gdp) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant λ = 0.12. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and find that the distribution of change in CPI (GCI) rank follows exponential functions with approximately the same exponent as λ, suggesting that the dynamics of gdp, CPI, and GCI may share the same origin. Using the GCI, we develop a new measure, which we call relative competitiveness, to evaluate an economy's competitiveness relative to its gdp. For all European and EU countries during the 2008-2011 economic downturn we find that the drop in gdp in more competitve countries relative to gdp was substantially smaller than in relatively less competitive countries, which is valuable information for policymakers.

The competitiveness versus the wealth of a country

PubMed Central

Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-01-01

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its per capita GDP (gdp) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant λ = 0.12. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and find that the distribution of change in CPI (GCI) rank follows exponential functions with approximately the same exponent as λ, suggesting that the dynamics of gdp, CPI, and GCI may share the same origin. Using the GCI, we develop a new measure, which we call relative competitiveness, to evaluate an economy's competitiveness relative to its gdp. For all European and EU countries during the 2008–2011 economic downturn we find that the drop in gdp in more competitve countries relative to gdp was substantially smaller than in relatively less competitive countries, which is valuable information for policymakers. PMID:22997552

Parkinson disease of ranking lawyer and legislator SJV Chelvanayakam: a hypothesis.

PubMed

Chelvanayakam, S J V

2003-12-01

SJV Chelvanayakam (1898-1977), a ranking civil lawyer and legislator, was probably the well known Parkinson disease victim in the 20th century Sri Lanka. He was born in Ipoh, Malaya, where his father had moved in the last decade of the 19th century for professional advancement. Ipoh was then an attractive location for migrants from China and the Indian subcontinent since it was in the Kinta valley--touted then, as the world's richest single tin field. Chelvanayakam was brought to Jaffna peninsula when he was aged four (in 1902 or 1903) by his mother, who returned to her native Tellipalai town partly due to indifferent health during her stay in Kinta region. In this communication, I present a hypothesis that organotin exposure as a foetus or during infancy at his place of birth is likely to have been a contributing factor to Chelvanayakam's Parkinsonism. It seems to fit the available circumstantial evidence.

Footprinting of Inhibitor Interactions of In Silico Identified Inhibitors of Trypanothione Reductase of Leishmania Parasite

PubMed Central

Venkatesan, Santhosh K.; Dubey, Vikash Kumar

2012-01-01

Structure-based virtual screening of NCI Diversity set II compounds was performed to indentify novel inhibitor scaffolds of trypanothione reductase (TR) from Leishmania infantum. The top 50 ranked hits were clustered using the AuPoSOM tool. Majority of the top-ranked compounds were Tricyclic. Clustering of hits yielded four major clusters each comprising varying number of subclusters differing in their mode of binding and orientation in the active site. Moreover, for the first time, we report selected alkaloids and dibenzothiazepines as inhibitors of Leishmania infantum TR. The mode of binding observed among the clusters also potentiates the probable in vitro inhibition kinetics and aids in defining key interaction which might contribute to the inhibition of enzymatic reduction of T[S] 2. The method provides scope for automation and integration into the virtual screening process employing docking softwares, for clustering the small molecule inhibitors based upon protein-ligand interactions. PMID:22550471

The competitiveness versus the wealth of a country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Kenett, Dror Y.; Stanley, H. Eugene

2012-09-01

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its per capita GDP (gdp) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant λ = 0.12. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and find that the distribution of change in CPI (GCI) rank follows exponential functions with approximately the same exponent as λ, suggesting that the dynamics of gdp, CPI, and GCI may share the same origin. Using the GCI, we develop a new measure, which we call relative competitiveness, to evaluate an economy's competitiveness relative to its gdp. For all European and EU countries during the 2008-2011 economic downturn we find that the drop in gdp in more competitve countries relative to gdp was substantially smaller than in relatively less competitive countries, which is valuable information for policymakers.

Testing the monogamy relations via rank-2 mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Eylee; Park, DaeKil

2016-10-01

We introduce two tangle-based four-party entanglement measures t1 and t2, and two negativity-based measures n1 and n2, which are derived from the monogamy relations. These measures are computed for three four-qubit maximally entangled and W states explicitly. We also compute these measures for the rank-2 mixture ρ4=p | GHZ4>< GHZ4|+(1 -p ) | W4>< W4| by finding the corresponding optimal decompositions. It turns out that t1(ρ4) is trivial and the corresponding optimal decomposition is equal to the spectral decomposition. Probably, this triviality is a sign of the fact that the corresponding monogamy inequality is not sufficiently tight. We fail to compute t2(ρ4) due to the difficulty in the calculation of the residual entanglement. The negativity-based measures n1(ρ4) and n2(ρ4) are explicitly computed and the corresponding optimal decompositions are also derived explicitly.

Opinion formation driven by PageRank node influence on directed networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Young-Ho; Shepelyansky, Dima L.

2015-10-01

We study a two states opinion formation model driven by PageRank node influence and report an extensive numerical study on how PageRank affects collective opinion formations in large-scale empirical directed networks. In our model the opinion of a node can be updated by the sum of its neighbor nodes' opinions weighted by the node influence of the neighbor nodes at each step. We consider PageRank probability and its sublinear power as node influence measures and investigate evolution of opinion under various conditions. First, we observe that all networks reach steady state opinion after a certain relaxation time. This time scale is decreasing with the heterogeneity of node influence in the networks. Second, we find that our model shows consensus and non-consensus behavior in steady state depending on types of networks: Web graph, citation network of physics articles, and LiveJournal social network show non-consensus behavior while Wikipedia article network shows consensus behavior. Third, we find that a more heterogeneous influence distribution leads to a more uniform opinion state in the cases of Web graph, Wikipedia, and Livejournal. However, the opposite behavior is observed in the citation network. Finally we identify that a small number of influential nodes can impose their own opinion on significant fraction of other nodes in all considered networks. Our study shows that the effects of heterogeneity of node influence on opinion formation can be significant and suggests further investigations on the interplay between node influence and collective opinion in networks.

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

Statistics for the Relative Detectability of Chemicals in Weak Gaseous Plumes in LWIR Hyperspectral Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Metoyer, Candace N.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Tardiff, Mark F.

2008-10-30

The detection and identification of weak gaseous plumes using thermal imaging data is complicated by many factors. These include variability due to atmosphere, ground and plume temperature, and background clutter. This paper presents an analysis of one formulation of the physics-based model that describes the at-sensor observed radiance. The motivating question for the analyses performed in this paper is as follows. Given a set of backgrounds, is there a way to predict the background over which the probability of detecting a given chemical will be the highest? Two statistics were developed to address this question. These statistics incorporate data frommore » the long-wave infrared band to predict the background over which chemical detectability will be the highest. These statistics can be computed prior to data collection. As a preliminary exploration into the predictive ability of these statistics, analyses were performed on synthetic hyperspectral images. Each image contained one chemical (either carbon tetrachloride or ammonia) spread across six distinct background types. The statistics were used to generate predictions for the background ranks. Then, the predicted ranks were compared to the empirical ranks obtained from the analyses of the synthetic images. For the simplified images under consideration, the predicted and empirical ranks showed a promising amount of agreement. One statistic accurately predicted the best and worst background for detection in all of the images. Future work may include explorations of more complicated plume ingredients, background types, and noise structures.« less

Search engine ranking, quality, and content of webpages that are critical vs noncritical of HPV vaccine

PubMed Central

Fu, Linda Y.; Zook, Kathleen; Spoehr-Labutta, Zachary; Hu, Pamela; Joseph, Jill G.

2015-01-01

Purpose Online information can influence attitudes toward vaccination. The aim of the present study is to provide a systematic evaluation of the search engine ranking, quality, and content of webpages that are critical versus noncritical of HPV vaccination. Methods We identified HPV vaccine-related webpages with the Google search engine by entering 20 terms. We then assessed each webpage for critical versus noncritical bias as well as for the following quality indicators: authorship disclosure, source disclosure, attribution of at least one reference, currency, exclusion of testimonial accounts, and readability level less than 9th grade. We also determined webpage comprehensiveness in terms of mention of 14 HPV vaccine relevant topics. Results Twenty searches yielded 116 unique webpages. HPV vaccine-critical webpages comprised roughly a third of the top, top 5 and top 10-ranking webpages. The prevalence of HPV vaccine-critical webpages was higher for queries that included term modifiers in addition to root terms. Compared with noncritical webpages, webpages critical of HPV vaccine overall had a lower quality score than those with a noncritical bias (p<.01) and covered fewer important HPV-related topics (p<.001). Critical webpages required viewers to have higher reading skills, were less likely to include an author byline, and were more likely to include testimonial accounts. They also were more likely to raise unsubstantiated concerns about vaccination. Conclusion Webpages critical of HPV vaccine may be frequently returned and highly ranked by search engine queries despite being of lower quality and less comprehensive than noncritical webpages. PMID:26559742

The personal interview: assessing the potential for personality similarity to bias the selection of orthopaedic residents.

PubMed

Quintero, Andres J; Segal, Lee S; King, Tonya S; Black, Kevin P

2009-10-01

The selection of medical students for training in orthopaedic surgery consists of an objective screening of cognitive skills to secure interviews for the brightest candidates, followed by subjective measures of candidates to confirm whether applicants are worthy of further consideration. The personal interview and its potential biased impact on the orthopaedic workforce were evaluated. During 2004-2006 at the Penn State College of Medicine, the authors performed a prospective cohort study in which 30 consenting interviewers and 135 interviewees completed the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator before the interviews. Completed surveys were evaluated after submitting the resident selection list to the National Residency Matching Program, and candidate rankings based solely on the personal interview were analyzed. Clinicians ranked candidates more favorably when they shared certain personality preferences (P = .044) and when they shared the preference groupings of the quadrant extrovert-sensing and either the function pair sensing-thinking (P = .007) or the temperament sensing-judging (P = .003), or the function pair sensing-feeling and the temperament sensing-judging (P = .029). No associations existed between personality preferences and interviewee rankings performed by basic scientists and resident interviewers. The results support the hypothesis that, within the department studied, there was a significant association between similarities in personality type and the rankings that individual faculty interviewers assigned to applicants at the completion of each interview session. The authors believe that it is important for the faculty member to recognize that this tendency exists. Finally, promoting diversity within the admission committee may foster a diverse resident body and orthopaedic workforce.

A data assimilation system combining CryoSat-2 data and hydrodynamic river models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Raphael; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Godiksen, Peter Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2018-02-01

There are numerous hydrologic studies using satellite altimetry data from repeat-orbit missions such as Envisat or Jason over rivers. This study is one of the first examples for the combination of altimetry from drifting-ground track satellite missions, namely CryoSat-2, with a river model. CryoSat-2 SARIn Level 2 data is used to improve a 1D hydrodynamic model of the Brahmaputra River in South Asia, which is based on the Saint-Venant equations for unsteady flow and set up in the MIKE HYDRO River software. After calibration of discharge and water level the hydrodynamic model can accurately and bias-free represent the spatio-temporal variations of water levels. A data assimilation framework has been developed and linked with the model. It is a flexible framework that can assimilate water level data which are arbitrarily distributed in time and space. The setup has been used to assimilate CryoSat-2 water level observations over the Assam valley for the years 2010-2015, using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). Performance improvement in terms of discharge forecasting skill was then evaluated. For experiments with synthetic CryoSat-2 data the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was improved by up to 32%, whilst for experiments assimilating real data it could be improved by up to 10%. The developed methods are expected to be transferable to other rivers and altimeter missions. The model setup and calibration is based almost entirely on globally available remote sensing data.

Allied restorative functions training in Minnesota: a case study.

PubMed

Cooper, Brigette R; Monson, Angela L

2007-03-01

In 2003, the Minnesota Dental Practice Act was modified to allow dental hygienists and assistants to place amalgam, composite, glass ionomer, and stainless steel crowns. The concept of utilizing allied professionals to perform expanded functions has been suggested as a way to increase access to care and productivity. A continuing education course was offered to provide required certification for interested dental practitioners (N=12). The objectives of this study were to examine confidence levels and effectiveness of the continuing education program. Pre- and post-course restorative content knowledge, along with confidence levels in knowledge, technical skills, and the ability to implement skills were measured. A matched pairs t-test found a significant increase in participants' restorative content knowledge (p<.001). Wilcoxen signed rank tests revealed an increase in confidence in all content knowledge (p<.01) and technical skill (p<.05) categories. Participants did not significantly increase in confidence to implement restorative functions skills into practice (p<.7). Interview data revealed that participants remain unclear about ways to incorporate restorative functions into the schedule. Findings in this case study suggest that content knowledge and confidence levels increase following completion of a restorative functions course. To improve education and training, research is needed to identify why participants' confidence in implementation did not increase.

An interactive problem-solving approach to teach traumatology for medical students.

PubMed

Abu-Zidan, Fikri M; Elzubeir, Margaret A

2010-08-13

We aimed to evaluate an interactive problem-solving approach for teaching traumatology from perspectives of students and consider its implications on Faculty development. A two hour problem-solving, interactive tutorial on traumatology was structured to cover main topics in trauma management. The tutorial was based on real cases covering specific topics and objectives. Seven tutorials (5-9 students in each) were given by the same tutor with the same format for fourth and fifth year medical students in Auckland and UAE Universities (n = 50). A 16 item questionnaire, on a 7 point Likert-type scale, focusing on educational tools, tutor-based skills, and student-centered skills were answered by the students followed by open ended comments. The tutorials were highly ranked by the students. The mean values of educational tools was the highest followed by tutor-centered skills and finally student-centered skills. There was a significant increase of the rating of studied attributes over time (F = 3.9, p = 0.004, ANOVA). Students' open ended comments were highly supportive of the interactive problem-solving approach for teaching traumatology. The interactive problem-solving approach for tutorials can be an effective enjoyable alternative or supplement to traditional instruction for teaching traumatology to medical students. Training for this approach should be encouraged for Faculty development.

Competitive action video game players display rightward error bias during on-line video game play.

PubMed

Roebuck, Andrew J; Dubnyk, Aurora J B; Cochran, David; Mandryk, Regan L; Howland, John G; Harms, Victoria

2017-09-12

Research in asymmetrical visuospatial attention has identified a leftward bias in the general population across a variety of measures including visual attention and line-bisection tasks. In addition, increases in rightward collisions, or bumping, during visuospatial navigation tasks have been demonstrated in real world and virtual environments. However, little research has investigated these biases beyond the laboratory. The present study uses a semi-naturalistic approach and the online video game streaming service Twitch to examine navigational errors and assaults as skilled action video game players (n = 60) compete in Counter Strike: Global Offensive. This study showed a significant rightward bias in both fatal assaults and navigational errors. Analysis using the in-game ranking system as a measure of skill failed to show a relationship between bias and skill. These results suggest that a leftward visuospatial bias may exist in skilled players during online video game play. However, the present study was unable to account for some factors such as environmental symmetry and player handedness. In conclusion, video game streaming is a promising method for behavioural research in the future, however further study is required before one can determine whether these results are an artefact of the method applied, or representative of a genuine rightward bias.

Analysis of the study skills of undergraduate pharmacy students of the University of Zambia School of Medicine.

PubMed

Ezeala, Christian Chinyere; Siyanga, Nalucha

2015-01-01

It aimed to compare the study skills of two groups of undergraduate pharmacy students in the School of Medicine, University of Zambia using the Study Skills Assessment Questionnaire (SSAQ), with the goal of analysing students' study skills and identifying factors that affect study skills. A questionnaire was distributed to 67 participants from both programs using stratified random sampling. Completed questionnaires were rated according to participants study skill. The total scores and scores within subscales were analysed and compared quantitatively. Questionnaires were distributed to 37 students in the regular program, and to 30 students in the parallel program. The response rate was 100%. Students had moderate to good study skills: 22 respondents (32.8%) showed good study skills, while 45 respondents (67.2%) were found to have moderate study skills. Students in the parallel program demonstrated significantly better study skills (mean SSAQ score, 185.4±14.5), particularly in time management and writing, than the students in the regular program (mean SSAQ score 175±25.4; P<0.05). No significant differences were found according to age, gender, residential or marital status, or level of study. The students in the parallel program had better time management and writing skills, probably due to their prior work experience. The more intensive training to students in regular program is needed in improving time management and writing skills.

Robust, Adaptive Radar Detection and Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-21

cost function is not a convex function in R, we apply a transformation variables i.e., let X = σ2R−1 and S′ = 1 σ2 S. Then, the revised cost function in...1 viv H i . We apply this inverse covariance matrix in computing the SINR as well as estimator variance. • Rank Constrained Maximum Likelihood: Our...even as almost all available training samples are corrupted. Probability of Detection vs. SNR We apply three test statistics, the normalized matched

The Society-Deciders Model and Fairness in Nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flomenbom, Ophir

2015-05-01

Modeling the dynamics in nations from economical and sociological perspectives is a central theme in economics and sociology. Accurate models can predict and therefore help all the world's citizens. Yet, recent years have show that the current models are missing. Here, we develop a dynamical society-deciders model that can explain the stability in a nation, based on concepts from dynamics, ecology and socio-econo-physics; a nation has two groups that interconnect, the deciders and the society. We show that a nation is either stable or it collapses. This depends on just two coefficients that we relate with sociological and economical indicators. We define a new socio-economic indicator, fairness. Fairness can measure the stability in a nation and how probable a change favoring the society is. We compute fairness among all the world's nations. Interestingly, in comparison with other indicators, fairness shows that the USA loses its rank among Western democracies, India is the best among the 15 most populated nations, and Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have significantly improved their rankings as a result of recent revolutions, further increasing the probability of additional positive changes. Within the model, long lasting crises are solved rather than with increasing governmental spending or cuts with regulations that reduce the stability of the deciders, namely, increasing fairness, while, for example, shifting wealth in the direction of the people, and therefore increasing further opportunities.

Survival analysis using inverse probability of treatment weighted methods based on the generalized propensity score.

PubMed

Sugihara, Masahiro

2010-01-01

In survival analysis, treatment effects are commonly evaluated based on survival curves and hazard ratios as causal treatment effects. In observational studies, these estimates may be biased due to confounding factors. The inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) method based on the propensity score is one of the approaches utilized to adjust for confounding factors between binary treatment groups. As a generalization of this methodology, we developed an exact formula for an IPTW log-rank test based on the generalized propensity score for survival data. This makes it possible to compare the group differences of IPTW Kaplan-Meier estimators of survival curves using an IPTW log-rank test for multi-valued treatments. As causal treatment effects, the hazard ratio can be estimated using the IPTW approach. If the treatments correspond to ordered levels of a treatment, the proposed method can be easily extended to the analysis of treatment effect patterns with contrast statistics. In this paper, the proposed method is illustrated with data from the Kyushu Lipid Intervention Study (KLIS), which investigated the primary preventive effects of pravastatin on coronary heart disease (CHD). The results of the proposed method suggested that pravastatin treatment reduces the risk of CHD and that compliance to pravastatin treatment is important for the prevention of CHD. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-heuristic CRPS minimization for the calibration of short-range probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Rahmani, Morteza; Azadi, Majid

2016-08-01

This paper deals with the probabilistic short-range temperature forecasts over synoptic meteorological stations across Iran using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR). NGR creates a Gaussian forecast probability density function (PDF) from the ensemble output. The mean of the normal predictive PDF is a bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble members and its variance is a linear function of the raw ensemble variance. The coefficients for the mean and variance are estimated by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) during a training period. CRPS is a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. In the paper of Gneiting et al. (Mon Weather Rev 133:1098-1118, 2005), Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is used to minimize the CRPS. Since BFGS is a conventional optimization method with its own limitations, we suggest using the particle swarm optimization (PSO), a robust meta-heuristic method, to minimize the CRPS. The ensemble prediction system used in this study consists of nine different configurations of the weather research and forecasting model for 48-h forecasts of temperature during autumn and winter 2011 and 2012. The probabilistic forecasts were evaluated using several common verification scores including Brier score, attribute diagram and rank histogram. Results show that both BFGS and PSO find the optimal solution and show the same evaluation scores, but PSO can do this with a feasible random first guess and much less computational complexity.

Overlapping clusters for distributed computation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirrokni, Vahab; Andersen, Reid; Gleich, David F.

2010-11-01

Scalable, distributed algorithms must address communication problems. We investigate overlapping clusters, or vertex partitions that intersect, for graph computations. This setup stores more of the graph than required but then affords the ease of implementation of vertex partitioned algorithms. Our hope is that this technique allows us to reduce communication in a computation on a distributed graph. The motivation above draws on recent work in communication avoiding algorithms. Mohiyuddin et al. (SC09) design a matrix-powers kernel that gives rise to an overlapping partition. Fritzsche et al. (CSC2009) develop an overlapping clustering for a Schwarz method. Both techniques extend an initialmore » partitioning with overlap. Our procedure generates overlap directly. Indeed, Schwarz methods are commonly used to capitalize on overlap. Elsewhere, overlapping communities (Ahn et al, Nature 2009; Mishra et al. WAW2007) are now a popular model of structure in social networks. These have long been studied in statistics (Cole and Wishart, CompJ 1970). We present two types of results: (i) an estimated swapping probability {rho}{infinity}; and (ii) the communication volume of a parallel PageRank solution (link-following {alpha} = 0.85) using an additive Schwarz method. The volume ratio is the amount of extra storage for the overlap (2 means we store the graph twice). Below, as the ratio increases, the swapping probability and PageRank communication volume decreases.« less

Accuracy of taxonomy prediction for 16S rRNA and fungal ITS sequences

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Prediction of taxonomy for marker gene sequences such as 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) is a fundamental task in microbiology. Most experimentally observed sequences are diverged from reference sequences of authoritatively named organisms, creating a challenge for prediction methods. I assessed the accuracy of several algorithms using cross-validation by identity, a new benchmark strategy which explicitly models the variation in distances between query sequences and the closest entry in a reference database. When the accuracy of genus predictions was averaged over a representative range of identities with the reference database (100%, 99%, 97%, 95% and 90%), all tested methods had ≤50% accuracy on the currently-popular V4 region of 16S rRNA. Accuracy was found to fall rapidly with identity; for example, better methods were found to have V4 genus prediction accuracy of ∼100% at 100% identity but ∼50% at 97% identity. The relationship between identity and taxonomy was quantified as the probability that a rank is the lowest shared by a pair of sequences with a given pair-wise identity. With the V4 region, 95% identity was found to be a twilight zone where taxonomy is highly ambiguous because the probabilities that the lowest shared rank between pairs of sequences is genus, family, order or class are approximately equal. PMID:29682424

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, R. V.; Mulcahy, R.; Rubin, D.; Antonsen, E. L.; Kerstman, E. L.; Reyes, D.

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

A model of cardiopulmonary bypass staged training integrating technical and non-technical skills dedicated to cardiac trainees.

PubMed

Fouilloux, V; Doguet, F; Kotsakis, A; Dubrowski, A; Berdah, S

2015-03-01

To develop a standardized simulation-based curriculum to teach medical knowledge and technical, communication and critical thinking skills necessary to initiate and wean from cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) to junior cardiac trainees (CTs) in France. Performance on post-curricular tests was compared between CTs who participated in the new curriculum to those who did not. The simulation-based curriculum was developed by content and education experts. Simulations sequentially taught the skills necessary for initiating and weaning from CPB as well as managing crises by adding fidelity and complexity to scenarios. Nine CTs were randomly assigned to the new curriculum (n=5) or the traditional curriculum (n=4). Skills were assessed using tests of medical knowledge and technical, communication (GRS) and critical thinking (SCT) skills. A two-sample Wilcoxon rank-sum test compared average scores between the two groups. Alpha of 0.05 was set to indicate statistically significant differences. The resutls revealed that CTs in the new curriculum significantly outperformed CTs in the traditional curriculum on technical (18.2 vs 14.8, p=0.05) and communication (3.5 vs 2.2, p=0.013) skills. There was no significant difference between CTs in the new curriculum in the Script Concordance Test (16.5 vs 14.8, p=0.141) and knowledge tests (26.9 vs 24.6, p=0.14) compared to CTs in the traditional curriculum. Our new curriculum teaches communication and technical skills necessary for CPB. The results of this pilot study are encouraging and relevant. They give grounds for future research with a larger panel of trainees. Based on the current distribution of scores, a sample size of 12 CTs per group should yield significant results for all tests. © The Author(s) 2014.

Use of technology to facilitate physical activity in children with autism spectrum disorders: A pilot study.

PubMed

Bittner, Melissa D; Rigby, B Rhett; Silliman-French, Lisa; Nichols, David L; Dillon, Suzanna R

2017-08-01

Deficits in social behavior and communication skills are correlated with reduced gross motor skills in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The ExerciseBuddy application (EB app) was designed to communicate these motor skills to those with ASD and integrates evidence-based practices such as visual support and video modeling supported by The National Professional Development Center on Autism Spectrum Disorders. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the EB app in facilitating increased physiologic responses to physical activity via a continuous measurement of energy expenditure and heart rate versus practice-style teaching methods in children with ASD. Six children, ages 5 to 10years, diagnosed with ASD were recruited. Each participant performed a variety of locomotor or object control skills as defined by the Test of Gross Motor Development-2 once per week for 4weeks. Motor skills were communicated and demonstrated using either practice-style teaching methods or the instructional section of the EB app. Energy expenditure and heart rate were measured continuously during each 12-minute session. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to assess any differences between the use of the app and practice-style teaching methods. The use of the EB app elicited greater values for peak energy expenditure (p=0.043) and peak heart rate response (p=0.028) while performing locomotor skills but no differences were observed while performing object control skills. Similarities were observed with average physiologic responses between the use of the EB app and practice-style teaching methods. The use of the EB app may allow for a greater peak physiologic response during more dynamic movements and a similar average cardiovascular and metabolic response when compared to practice-style teaching methods in children with ASD. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Criterion-based laparoscopic training reduces total training time.

PubMed

Brinkman, Willem M; Buzink, Sonja N; Alevizos, Leonidas; de Hingh, Ignace H J T; Jakimowicz, Jack J

2012-04-01

The benefits of criterion-based laparoscopic training over time-oriented training are unclear. The purpose of this study is to compare these types of training based on training outcome and time efficiency. During four training sessions within 1 week (one session per day) 34 medical interns (no laparoscopic experience) practiced on two basic tasks on the Simbionix LAP Mentor virtual-reality (VR) simulator: 'clipping and grasping' and 'cutting'. Group C (criterion-based) (N = 17) trained to reach predefined criteria and stopped training in each session when these criteria were met, with a maximum training time of 1 h. Group T (time-based) (N = 17) trained for a fixed time of 1 h each session. Retention of skills was assessed 1 week after training. In addition, transferability of skills was established using the Haptica ProMIS augmented-reality simulator. Both groups improved their performance significantly over the course of the training sessions (Wilcoxon signed ranks, P < 0.05). Both groups showed skill transferability and skill retention. When comparing the performance parameters of group C and group T, their performances in the first, the last and the retention training sessions did not differ significantly (Mann-Whitney U test, P > 0.05). The average number of repetitions needed to meet the criteria also did not differ between the groups. Overall, group C spent less time training on the simulator than did group T (74:48 and 120:10 min, respectively; P < 0.001). Group C performed significantly fewer repetitions of each task, overall and in session 2, 3 and 4. Criterion-based training of basic laparoscopic skills can reduce the overall training time with no impact on training outcome, transferability or retention of skills. Criterion-based should be the training of choice in laparoscopic skills curricula.