Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Natuzzi, Eileen S; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-08-03

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Defining Population Health Vulnerability Following an Extreme Weather Event in an Urban Pacific Island Environment: Honiara, Solomon Islands

PubMed Central

Natuzzi, Eileen S.; Joshua, Cynthia; Shortus, Matthew; Reubin, Reginald; Dalipanda, Tenneth; Ferran, Karen; Aumua, Audrey; Brodine, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events are common and increasing in intensity in the southwestern Pacific region. Health impacts from cyclones and tropical storms cause acute injuries and infectious disease outbreaks. Defining population vulnerability to extreme weather events by examining a recent flood in Honiara, Solomon Islands, can help stakeholders and policymakers adapt development to reduce future threats. The acute and subacute health impacts following the April 2014 floods were defined using data obtained from hospitals and clinics, the Ministry of Health and in-country World Health Organization office in Honiara. Geographical information system (GIS) was used to assess morbidity and mortality, and vulnerability of the health system infrastructure and households in Honiara. The April flash floods were responsible for 21 acute deaths, 33 injuries, and a diarrhea outbreak that affected 8,584 people with 10 pediatric deaths. A GIS vulnerability assessment of the location of the health system infrastructure and households relative to rivers and the coastline identified 75% of the health infrastructure and over 29% of Honiara's population as vulnerable to future hydrological events. Honiara, Solomon Islands, is a rapidly growing, highly vulnerable urban Pacific Island environment. Evaluation of the mortality and morbidity from the April 2014 floods as well as the infectious disease outbreaks that followed allows public health specialists and policy makers to understand the health system and populations vulnerability to future shocks. Understanding the negative impacts natural disaster have on people living in urban Pacific environments will help the government as well as development partners in crafting resilient adaptation development. PMID:27091867

Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

2016-12-01

Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study area.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data from incidences of large-scale Himalayan earthquake disasters will form the basis for a multi-temporal analysis. By analyzing different time slots we identify development paths and building integrity shifts in the light of dynamic urbanization processes. Hereby, future trends and spatial scenarios can be developed. We suggest a goal oriented indicator evaluation process to compare different development scenarios. This serves as an orientation for spatial planning strategies for local and international stakeholders.

Simulating the Composite Propellant Manufacturing Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, Suzanne; Love, Gregory

2000-01-01

There is a strategic interest in understanding how the propellant manufacturing process contributes to military capabilities outside the United States. The paper will discuss how system dynamics (SD) has been applied to rapidly assess the capabilities and vulnerabilities of a specific composite propellant production complex. These facilities produce a commonly used solid propellant with military applications. The authors will explain how an SD model can be configured to match a specific production facility followed by a series of scenarios designed to analyze operational vulnerabilities. By using the simulation model to rapidly analyze operational risks, the analyst gains a better understanding of production complexities. There are several benefits of developing SD models to simulate chemical production. SD is an effective tool for characterizing complex problems, especially the production process where the cascading effect of outages quickly taxes common understanding. By programming expert knowledge into an SD application, these tools are transformed into a knowledge management resource that facilitates rapid learning without requiring years of experience in production operations. It also permits the analyst to rapidly respond to crisis situations and other time-sensitive missions. Most importantly, the quantitative understanding gained from applying the SD model lends itself to strategic analysis and planning.

Advances in molecular-based diagnostics in meeting crop biosecurity and phytosanitary issues.

PubMed

Schaad, Norman W; Frederick, Reid D; Shaw, Joe; Schneider, William L; Hickson, Robert; Petrillo, Michael D; Luster, Douglas G

2003-01-01

Awareness of crop biosecurity and phytosanitation has been heightened since 9/11 and the unresolved anthrax releases in October 2001. Crops are highly vulnerable to accidental or deliberate introductions of crop pathogens from outside U.S. borders. Strategic thinking about protection against deliberate or accidental release of a plant pathogen is an urgent priority. Rapid detection will be the key to success. This review summarizes recent progress in the development of rapid real-time PCR protocols and evaluates their effectiveness in a proposed nationwide network of diagnostic laboratories that will facilitate rapid diagnostics and improved communication.

Transient poverty, poverty dynamics, and vulnerability to poverty: An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China.

PubMed

Ward, Patrick S

2016-02-01

China's economic reforms starting in the late 1970s have resulted in rapid economic growth, with annual growth in gross domestic product averaging greater than 10 percent per year for more than thirty years. Accompanying this rapid growth in national accounts have been rapid and widespread reductions in poverty. With these reductions in poverty, however, there has often been observed an increase in income inequality, both between as well as within rural and urban sectors. This rising income gap challenges the notion that economic reforms in China have been as successful as the poverty statistics would suggest. In this paper, we suggest that an alternative view would be to consider the effects of these reforms on changing the chronic nature of poverty and reducing household vulnerability to poverty. Using a balanced panel from rural China from 1991 through 2006, we find that most poverty among our sample has shifted from being chronic in nature to being transient, with households either shifting into a state of being non-poor moving in and out of poverty. Among our sample, vulnerability to poverty has been declining over time, but the declines are not uniform over time or space. We decompose household vulnerability status into two proximate causes: low expected income and high income variability, finding vulnerability increasingly due to income variability. Additionally, we demonstrate that vulnerable households have very different characteristics than non-vulnerable households.

Transient poverty, poverty dynamics, and vulnerability to poverty: An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China

PubMed Central

Ward, Patrick S.

2015-01-01

China’s economic reforms starting in the late 1970s have resulted in rapid economic growth, with annual growth in gross domestic product averaging greater than 10 percent per year for more than thirty years. Accompanying this rapid growth in national accounts have been rapid and widespread reductions in poverty. With these reductions in poverty, however, there has often been observed an increase in income inequality, both between as well as within rural and urban sectors. This rising income gap challenges the notion that economic reforms in China have been as successful as the poverty statistics would suggest. In this paper, we suggest that an alternative view would be to consider the effects of these reforms on changing the chronic nature of poverty and reducing household vulnerability to poverty. Using a balanced panel from rural China from 1991 through 2006, we find that most poverty among our sample has shifted from being chronic in nature to being transient, with households either shifting into a state of being non-poor moving in and out of poverty. Among our sample, vulnerability to poverty has been declining over time, but the declines are not uniform over time or space. We decompose household vulnerability status into two proximate causes: low expected income and high income variability, finding vulnerability increasingly due to income variability. Additionally, we demonstrate that vulnerable households have very different characteristics than non-vulnerable households. PMID:26855470

VULNERABILITY OF YOUNG CHILDREN TO ORGANOPHOSPHATE PESTICIDES AND SELECTED METALS THROUGH INTERMITTENT EXPOSURES IN YUMA COUNTY, ARIZONA

EPA Science Inventory

Children are the most susceptible population to environmental contaminants since: (a) their organs and neurological system are rapidly developing; (b) their intake (air, water, food, beverage) is greater relative to body size and weight; (c) their activities, behavior and p...

Application of GIS Rapid Mapping Technology in Disaster Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Tu, J.; Liu, G.; Zhao, Q.

2018-04-01

With the rapid development of GIS and RS technology, especially in recent years, GIS technology and its software functions have been increasingly mature and enhanced. And with the rapid development of mathematical statistical tools for spatial modeling and simulation, has promoted the widespread application and popularization of quantization in the field of geology. Based on the investigation of field disaster and the construction of spatial database, this paper uses remote sensing image, DEM and GIS technology to obtain the data information of disaster vulnerability analysis, and makes use of the information model to carry out disaster risk assessment mapping.Using ArcGIS software and its spatial data modeling method, the basic data information of the disaster risk mapping process was acquired and processed, and the spatial data simulation tool was used to map the disaster rapidly.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

At low force levels stability indices depend primarily on the number of vulnerable missiles and the number of weapons on them. The index reduces to a product of the number of vulnerable missiles and the differences between normalized second and first strikes by vulnerable weapons. As the number of weapons per vulnerable missile decreases, the index rapidly approaches stability. Further reductions in vulnerable and survivable missiles and weapons do not affect stability, although they do reduce first and second strikes. Modest weapon reconstitution degrades stability significantly.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for conducting rapid vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings. With modification of input structural parameters, it can be adapted and applied to any other building class. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic vulnerability modelling is conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of the input parameters. The proposed methodology was validated for a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of existing buildings in Old Quebec City. The procedure for hazard compatible vulnerability modelling was used to develop seismic fragility functions in terms of spectral acceleration representative of the inventoried buildings. A total of 1220 buildings were considered. The assessment was performed for a scenario event of magnitude 6.2 at distance 15km with a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years. The study showed that most of the expected damage is concentrated in the old brick and stone masonry buildings.

South Texas coastal classification maps - Mansfield Channel to the Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2006-01-01

The Nation's rapidly growing coastal population requires reliable information regarding the vulnerability of coastal regions to storm impacts. This has created a need for classifying coastal lands and evaluating storm-hazard vulnerability. Government officials and resource managers responsible for dealing with natural hazards also need accurate assessments of potential storm impacts in order to make informed decisions before, during, and after major storm events. Both economic development and coastal-damage mitigation require integrated models of storm parameters, hazard vulnerability, and expected coastal responses. Thus, storm-hazard vulnerability assessments constitute one of the fundamental components of forecasting storm impacts. Each year as many as 10 to 12 hurricanes and tropical storms will be the focus of national attention. Of particular interest are intense hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5 of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that have the potential to cause substantial economic and environmental damage to the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These coastal regions include some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country and they continue to experience rapid population growth. Based on media reports, there is a general lack of public knowledge regarding how different coastal segments will respond to the same storm or how the same coastal segment will respond differently depending on storm conditions. A primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk. A secondary purpose is to develop a broad coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States.

E-waste: a global hazard.

PubMed

Perkins, Devin N; Brune Drisse, Marie-Noel; Nxele, Tapiwa; Sly, Peter D

2014-01-01

Waste from end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment, known as e-waste, is a rapidly growing global problem. E-waste contains valuable materials that have an economic value when recycled. Unfortunately, the majority of e-waste is recycled in the unregulated informal sector and results in significant risk for toxic exposures to the recyclers, who are frequently women and children. The aim of this study was to document the extent of the problems associated with inappropriate e-waste recycling practices. This was a narrative review that highlighted where e-waste is generated, where it is recycled, the range of adverse environmental exposures, the range of adverse health consequences, and the policy frameworks that are intended to protect vulnerable populations from inappropriate e-waste recycling practices. The amount of e-waste being generated is increasing rapidly and is compounded by both illegal exportation and inappropriate donation of electronic equipment, especially computers, from developed to developing countries. As little as 25% of e-waste is recycled in formal recycling centers with adequate worker protection. The health consequences of both direct exposures during recycling and indirect exposures through environmental contamination are potentially severe but poorly studied. Policy frameworks aimed at protecting vulnerable populations exist but are not effectively applied. E-waste recycling is necessary but it should be conducted in a safe and standardized manor. The acceptable risk thresholds for hazardous, secondary e-waste substances should not be different for developing and developed countries. However, the acceptable thresholds should be different for children and adults given the physical differences and pronounced vulnerabilities of children. Improving occupational conditions for all e-waste workers and striving for the eradication of child labor is non-negotiable. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevating Virtual Machine Introspection for Fine-Grained Process Monitoring: Techniques and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Srinivasan, Deepa

2013-01-01

Recent rapid malware growth has exposed the limitations of traditional in-host malware-defense systems and motivated the development of secure virtualization-based solutions. By running vulnerable systems as virtual machines (VMs) and moving security software from inside VMs to the outside, the out-of-VM solutions securely isolate the anti-malware…

Using standard clinical assessments for home care to identify vulnerable populations before, during, and after disasters.

PubMed

van Solm, Alexandra I T; Hirdes, John P; Eckel, Leslie A; Heckman, George A; Bigelow, Philip L

Several studies have shown the increased vulnerability of and disproportionate mortality rate among frail community-dwelling older adults as a result of emergencies and disasters. This article will discuss the applicability of the Vulnerable Persons at Risk (VPR) and VPR Plus decision support algorithms designed based on the Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (RAI-HC) to identify the most vulnerable community-dwelling (older) adults. A sample was taken from the Ontario RAI-HC database by selecting unique home care clients with assessments closest to December 31, 2014 (N = 275,797). Statistical methods used include cross tabulation, bivariate logistic regression as well as Kaplan-Meier survival plotting and Cox proportional hazards ratios calculations. The VPR and VPR Plus algorithms, were highly predictive of mortality, long-term care admission and hospitalization in ordinary circumstances. This provides a good indication of the strength of the algorithms in identifying vulnerable persons at times of emergencies. Access to real-time person-level information of persons with functional care needs is a vital enabler for emergency responders in prioritizing and allocating resources during a disaster, and has great utility for emergency planning and recovery efforts. The development of valid and reliable algorithms supports the rapid identification and response to vulnerable community-dwelling persons for all phases of emergency management.

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Breshears, David D.; McDowell, Nathan G.

2015-01-01

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses, production values of industries, and infrastructures. We then conduct a regression analysis to test the VCM. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the data are collected from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan as well as the National Land Use Investigation and official census statistics. 3. Results and policy implications Results of CVAF analysis demonstrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability in the region, and highlight trends of long-term changes. The vulnerable areas unfold as clustered patterns and spatial analogues across regions, rather than randomly distributed. Highest cumulative vulnerability is concentrated in densely populated and downstream reaches (such as Taipei City) of the Danshui River in both time periods. When examining the VCM, it indicates that upper stream and more remote areas generally show low vulnerability, increases are observed in some areas between 1996 and 2006 due to land use intensification, industrial and infrastructure expansion. These findings suggest that land use planning should consider the socioeconomic progression and infrastructure investment factors that contribute to urban sprawl and address current as well as future urban developments vulnerable to hazard risk transmission. The cumulative vulnerability assessment, mapping methods and modelling presented here can be applied to other climate change and hazard risks to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving river basin management.

a New Quantitative Method for the Rapid Evaluation of Buildings against Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoodzadeh, Amir; Mazaheri, Mohammad Mehdi

2008-07-01

At the present time there exist numerous weak buildings which are not able to withstand earthquakes. At the same time, both private and public developers are trying to use scientific methods to prioritize and allocate budget in order to reinforce the above mentioned structures. This is because of the limited financial resources and time. In the recent years the procedure of seismic assessment before rehabilitation of vulnerable buildings has been implemented in many countries. Now, it seems logical to reinforce the existing procedures with the mass of available data about the effects caused by earthquakes on buildings. The main idea is driven from FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) in quality management where the main procedure is to recognize the failure, the causes, and the priority of each cause and failure. Specifying the causes and effects which lead to a certain shortcoming in structural behavior during earthquakes, an inventory is developed and each building is rated through a yes-or-no procedure. In this way, the rating of the structure is based on some standard forms which along with relative weights are developed in this study. The resulted criteria by rapid assessment will indicate whether the structure is to be demolished, has a high, medium or low vulnerability or is invulnerable.

Automated Test Case Generation for an Autopilot Requirement Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giannakopoulou, Dimitra; Rungta, Neha; Feary, Michael

2011-01-01

Designing safety-critical automation with robust human interaction is a difficult task that is susceptible to a number of known Human-Automation Interaction (HAI) vulnerabilities. It is therefore essential to develop automated tools that provide support both in the design and rapid evaluation of such automation. The Automation Design and Evaluation Prototyping Toolset (ADEPT) enables the rapid development of an executable specification for automation behavior and user interaction. ADEPT supports a number of analysis capabilities, thus enabling the detection of HAI vulnerabilities early in the design process, when modifications are less costly. In this paper, we advocate the introduction of a new capability to model-based prototyping tools such as ADEPT. The new capability is based on symbolic execution that allows us to automatically generate quality test suites based on the system design. Symbolic execution is used to generate both user input and test oracles user input drives the testing of the system implementation, and test oracles ensure that the system behaves as designed. We present early results in the context of a component in the Autopilot system modeled in ADEPT, and discuss the challenges of test case generation in the HAI domain.

Multi-criteria evaluation of hydro-geological and anthropogenic parameters for the groundwater vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Kumar, Prashant; Thakur, Praveen K; Bansod, Baban Ks; Debnath, Sanjit K

2017-10-16

Groundwater contamination assessment is a challenging task due to inherent complex dynamisms associated with the groundwater. DRASTIC is a very widely used rapid regional tool for the assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. DRASTIC has many lacunas in the form of subjectivities associated with weights and ratings of its hydro-geological parameters, and, therefore, the accuracy of the DRASTIC-based vulnerability map is questioned. The present study demonstrates the optimisation of the DRASTIC parameters along with a scientific consideration to the anthropogenic factors causing groundwater contamination. The resulting scientific consistent weights and ratings to DRASTIC parameters assist in the development of a very precise groundwater vulnerability map highlighting different zones of different gravity of contamination. One of the most important aspects of this study is that we have considered the impact of vadose zone in a very comprehensive manner by considering every sub-surface layer from the earth surface to the occurrence of groundwater. The study area for our experiment is Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab which is facing several groundwater issues.

Cyber Security for the Spaceport Command and Control System: Vulnerability Management and Compliance Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gunawan, Ryan A.

2016-01-01

With the rapid development of the Internet, the number of malicious threats to organizations is continually increasing. In June of 2015, the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM) had a data breach resulting in the compromise of millions of government employee records. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is not exempt from these attacks. Cyber security is becoming a critical facet to the discussion of moving forward with projects. The Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) project at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) aims to develop the launch control system for the next generation launch vehicle in the coming decades. There are many ways to increase the security of the network it uses, from vulnerability management to ensuring operating system images are compliant with securely configured baselines recommended by the United States Government.

A rapid assessment scorecard to identify informal settlements at higher maternal and child health risk in Mumbai.

PubMed

Osrin, David; Das, Sushmita; Bapat, Ujwala; Alcock, Glyn A; Joshi, Wasundhara; More, Neena Shah

2011-10-01

The communities who live in urban informal settlements are diverse, as are their environmental conditions. Characteristics include inadequate access to safe water and sanitation, poor quality of housing, overcrowding, and insecure residential status. Interventions to improve health should be equity-driven and target those at higher risk, but it is not clear how to prioritise informal settlements for health action. In implementing a maternal and child health programme in Mumbai, India, we had conducted a detailed vulnerability assessment which, though important, was time-consuming and may have included collection of redundant information. Subsequent data collection allowed us to examine three issues: whether community environmental characteristics were associated with maternal and newborn healthcare and outcomes; whether it was possible to develop a triage scorecard to rank the health vulnerability of informal settlements based on a few rapidly observable characteristics; and whether the scorecard might be useful for future prioritisation. The City Initiative for Newborn Health documented births in 48 urban slum areas over 2 years. Information was collected on maternal and newborn care and mortality, and also on household and community environment. We selected three outcomes-less than three antenatal care visits, home delivery, and neonatal mortality-and used logistic regression and classification and regression tree analysis to test their association with rapidly observable environmental characteristics. We developed a simple triage scorecard and tested its utility as a means of assessing maternal and newborn health risk. In analyses on a sample of 10,754 births, we found associations of health vulnerability with inadequate access to water, toilets, and electricity; non-durable housing; hazardous location; and rental tenancy. A simple scorecard based on these had limited sensitivity and positive predictive value, but relatively high specificity and negative predictive value. The scorecard needs further testing in a range of urban contexts, but we intend to use it to identify informal settlements in particular need of family health interventions in a subsequent program.

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Mission Impact of Foreign Influence on DoD Software

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

Findings______________________________________________________________________ Chinese hackers forced one of its bureaus to cut off Internet access and discard virus -infected...Vulnerability ( IAV ) Management (IAVM) process was created to prepare and rapidly disseminate mitigating actions for potentially critical software...vulnerabilities to DoD Components. IAVM notices have three criticality levels: • IAV Alert (IAVA) – most critical – a vulnerability posing an immediate

Review on Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Bulk of Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.

2013-09-01

This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.

Research and application of ARP protocol vulnerability attack and defense technology based on trusted network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Huixing

2017-03-01

With the continuous development of network technology and the rapid spread of the Internet, computer networks have been around the world every corner. However, the network attacks frequently occur. The ARP protocol vulnerability is one of the most common vulnerabilities in the TCP / IP four-layer architecture. The network protocol vulnerabilities can lead to the intrusion and attack of the information system, and disable or disable the normal defense function of the system [1]. At present, ARP spoofing Trojans spread widely in the LAN, the network security to run a huge hidden danger, is the primary threat to LAN security. In this paper, the author summarizes the research status and the key technologies involved in ARP protocol, analyzes the formation mechanism of ARP protocol vulnerability, and analyzes the feasibility of the attack technique. Based on the summary of the common defensive methods, the advantages and disadvantages of each defense method. At the same time, the current defense method is improved, and the advantage of the improved defense algorithm is given. At the end of this paper, the appropriate test method is selected and the test environment is set up. Experiment and test are carried out for each proposed improved defense algorithm.

Economic and hydrogeologic disparities govern the vulnerability of shared groundwater to strategic overdraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullen, C.; Muller, M. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater resources are depleting globally at an alarming rate. When the resource is shared, exploitation by individual users affects groundwater levels and increases pumping costs to all users. This incentivizes individual users to strategically over-pump, an effect that is challenging to keep in check because the underground nature of the resource often precludes regulations from being effectively implemented. As a result, shared groundwater resources are prone to tragedies of the commons that exacerbate their rapid depletion. However, we showed in a recent study that the vulnerability of aquifer systems to strategic overuse is strongly affected by local economic and physical characteristics, which suggests that not all shared aquifers are subject to tragedies of the commons. Building on these findings, we develop a vulnerability index based on coupled game theoretical and groundwater flow models. We show that vulnerability to strategic overdraft is driven by four intuitively interpretable adimensional parameters that describe economic and hydrogeologic disparities between the agents exploiting the aquifer. This suggests a scale-independent relation between the vulnerability of groundwater systems to common-pool overdraft and their economic and physical characteristics. We investigate this relation for a sample of existing aquifer systems and explore implications for enforceable groundwater agreements that would effectively mitigate strategic overdraft.

Towards a Quantitative Framework for Evaluating Vulnerability of Drinking Water Wells to Contamination from Unconventional Oil & Gas Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soriano, M., Jr.; Deziel, N. C.; Saiers, J. E.

2017-12-01

The rapid expansion of unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) production, made possible by advances in hydraulic fracturing (fracking), has triggered concerns over risks this extraction poses to water resources and public health. Concerns are particularly acute within communities that host UO&G development and rely heavily on shallow aquifers as sources of drinking water. This research aims to develop a quantitative framework to evaluate the vulnerability of drinking water wells to contamination from UO&G activities. The concept of well vulnerability is explored through application of backwards travel time probability modeling to estimate the likelihood that capture zones of drinking water wells circumscribe source locations of UO&G contamination. Sources of UO&G contamination considered in this analysis include gas well pads and documented sites of UO&G wastewater and chemical spills. The modeling approach is illustrated for a portion of Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania, where more than one thousand shale gas wells have been completed since 2005. Data from a network of eight multi-level groundwater monitoring wells installed in the study site in 2015 are used to evaluate the model. The well vulnerability concept is proposed as a physically based quantitative tool for policy-makers dealing with the management of contamination risks of drinking water wells. In particular, the model can be used to identify adequate setback distances of UO&G activities from drinking water wells and other critical receptors.

Water Security, Climate Forcings and Public Health Impacts in Emerging Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Craver, V.; Boving, T. B.

2014-12-01

Our world is rapidly urbanizing, with more than 80% of world's population is expected to be living in a city by the end of the century. A majority of these nations are rapidly urbanizing due to massive rural-to-urban migratory trends, with rapid development of unplanned urban settlements, or slums, with lack of adequate water or sanitation facilities and other municipal amenities. With global environmental change, natural disasters will expose millions more to drought, floods, and disease epidemics, and existing vulnerabilities will worsen. At the same time, rapid urbanization and fast changing land-use leads to widespread damage of infrastructure by stormwater, especially in lowlands and economically poor areas. The factor that consistently stands out among different cities from both the developed and the developing worlds is that the slums are typically the most vulnerable to water related natural hazards and climatic threats, such as water scarcity and quality issues in drought conditions, or water and sanitation breakdown and stormwater contamination problems. Onsite or decentralized water, wastewater and stormwater treatment as well as point-of-use water treatment options can be an economic, safe, and reliable alternative to conventional large-scale treatment especially, in urban fringes as well as rural areas. These systems can be designed to fit communities in terms of their economic, cultural, environmental, and demographic resources. As part of this study, we develop a database of urban water quality and quantity indices such as with urban land-use, water usage, climate, and socio-economic characteristics in various emerging regions in the world. We analyze past and current data to identify and quantify long-term trends and the impacts of large-scale climatic and anthropogenic changes on urban hydrology and health impacts. We specifically focus on five major cities from distinct groups of countries and geographies: Providence, RI, USA from the developed world, Lagos, Nigeria, Lima, Peru and Jakarta, Indonesia from the Middle-Income Countries, and Dhaka, Bangladesh from the Least Developed Countries, to compare and contrast leading drivers and sensitivities of water, climate, and health indicators.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

Epilepsy, autism, and neurodevelopment: kindling a shared vulnerability?

PubMed

Gilby, Krista L; O'Brien, Terence J

2013-03-01

Epilepsy and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) share many primary and comorbid symptoms. The degree of clinical overlap is believed to signify a 'spectrum of vulnerability' that arises out of an early common dysfunction in central nervous system development. However, research into the underlying, and potentially shared, etiopathological mechanisms is challenging given the extensive comorbidity profiles. Adding to the degree of difficulty is the frequently evolving recompartmentalization of diagnostic criteria within each disorder. This review discusses potential preclinical strategies that, through the use of animal models, are designed to gain insight into the biological basis of the overlap between epilepsy and autism and to foster a rapid clinical translation of the insights gained. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discovering and Mitigating Software Vulnerabilities through Large-Scale Collaboration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Mingyi

2016-01-01

In today's rapidly digitizing society, people place their trust in a wide range of digital services and systems that deliver latest news, process financial transactions, store sensitive information, etc. However, this trust does not have a solid foundation, because software code that supports this digital world has security vulnerabilities. These…

Climate change and developing-country cities: implications for environmental health and equity.

PubMed

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Corvalán, Carlos

2007-05-01

Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health. It is also highly inequitable, as the greatest risks are to the poorest populations, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rapid economic development and the concurrent urbanization of poorer countries mean that developing-country cities will be both vulnerable to health hazards from climate change and, simultaneously, an increasing contributor to the problem. We review the specific health vulnerabilities of urban populations in developing countries and highlight the range of large direct health effects of energy policies that are concentrated in urban areas. Common vulnerability factors include coastal location, exposure to the urban heat-island effect, high levels of outdoor and indoor air pollution, high population density, and poor sanitation. There are clear opportunities for simultaneously improving health and cutting GHG emissions most obviously through policies related to transport systems, urban planning, building regulations and household energy supply. These influence some of the largest current global health burdens, including approximately 800,000 annual deaths from ambient urban air pollution, 1.2 million from road-traffic accidents, 1.9 million from physical inactivity, and 1.5 million per year from indoor air pollution. GHG emissions and health protection in developing-country cities are likely to become increasingly prominent in policy development. There is a need for a more active input from the health sector to ensure that development and health policies contribute to a preventive approach to local and global environmental sustainability, urban population health, and health equity.

The Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment: Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Social-Ecological Change in the Far North

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mack, M. C.; Goetz, S. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Kimball, J. S.; Boelman, N.

2015-12-01

In the high northern latitudes, climate is warming more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, transforming vulnerable arctic tundra and boreal forest landscapes. These changes are altering the structure and function of energy, water and carbon cycles, producing significant feedbacks to regional and global climate through changes in energy, water and carbon cycles. These changes are also challenging local and global society. At the local level, communities seek to adapt to new social-ecological regimes. At the global level, changing arctic and boreal systems are increasing becoming the focus of policy discussions at all levels of decision-making. National and international scientific efforts associated with a new NASA field campaign, the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABOVE) will advance our ability to observe, understand and predict the complex, multiscale and non-linear processes that are confronting the natural and social systems in this rapidly changing region. Over the next decade, the newly assembled ABOVE Science Team will pursue this overarching question: "How vulnerable or resilient are ecosystems and society to environmental change in the Arctic and boreal region of western North America?" Through integration of remote sensing and in situ observations with modeling of both ecological and social systems, the ABOVE Science Team will advance an interdisciplinary understanding of the Far North. In this presentation, we will discuss the conceptual basis for the ABOVE Field Campaign, describe Science Team composition and timeline, and update the community on activities. In addition, we will reflect on the visionary role of Dr. Diane Wickland, retired NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program Manager and lead of the Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Focus Area, in the development and commencement of ABOVE.

Targetable vulnerabilities in T- and NK-cell lymphomas identified through preclinical models.

PubMed

Ng, Samuel Y; Yoshida, Noriaki; Christie, Amanda L; Ghandi, Mahmoud; Dharia, Neekesh V; Dempster, Joshua; Murakami, Mark; Shigemori, Kay; Morrow, Sara N; Van Scoyk, Alexandria; Cordero, Nicolas A; Stevenson, Kristen E; Puligandla, Maneka; Haas, Brian; Lo, Christopher; Meyers, Robin; Gao, Galen; Cherniack, Andrew; Louissaint, Abner; Nardi, Valentina; Thorner, Aaron R; Long, Henry; Qiu, Xintao; Morgan, Elizabeth A; Dorfman, David M; Fiore, Danilo; Jang, Julie; Epstein, Alan L; Dogan, Ahmet; Zhang, Yanming; Horwitz, Steven M; Jacobsen, Eric D; Santiago, Solimar; Ren, Jian-Guo; Guerlavais, Vincent; Annis, D Allen; Aivado, Manuel; Saleh, Mansoor N; Mehta, Amitkumar; Tsherniak, Aviad; Root, David; Vazquez, Francisca; Hahn, William C; Inghirami, Giorgio; Aster, Jon C; Weinstock, David M; Koch, Raphael

2018-05-22

T- and NK-cell lymphomas (TCL) are a heterogenous group of lymphoid malignancies with poor prognosis. In contrast to B-cell and myeloid malignancies, there are few preclinical models of TCLs, which has hampered the development of effective therapeutics. Here we establish and characterize preclinical models of TCL. We identify multiple vulnerabilities that are targetable with currently available agents (e.g., inhibitors of JAK2 or IKZF1) and demonstrate proof-of-principle for biomarker-driven therapies using patient-derived xenografts (PDXs). We show that MDM2 and MDMX are targetable vulnerabilities within TP53-wild-type TCLs. ALRN-6924, a stapled peptide that blocks interactions between p53 and both MDM2 and MDMX has potent in vitro activity and superior in vivo activity across 8 different PDX models compared to the standard-of-care agent romidepsin. ALRN-6924 induced a complete remission in a patient with TP53-wild-type angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma, demonstrating the potential for rapid translation of discoveries from subtype-specific preclinical models.

HIV after 40 in rural South Africa: A life course approach to HIV vulnerability among middle aged and older adults.

PubMed

Mojola, Sanyu A; Williams, Jill; Angotti, Nicole; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier

2015-10-01

South Africa has the highest number of people living with HIV in the world (over 6 million) as well as a rapidly aging population, with 15% of the population aged 50 and over. High HIV prevalence in rural former apartheid homeland areas suggests substantial aging with HIV and acquisition of HIV at older ages. We develop a life course approach to HIV vulnerability, highlighting the rise and fall of risk and protection as people age, as well as the role of contextual density in shaping HIV vulnerability. Using this approach, we draw on an innovative multi-method data set collected within the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa, combining survey data with 60 nested life history interviews and 9 community focus group interviews. We examine HIV risk and protective factors among adults aged 40-80, as well as how and why these factors vary among people at older ages. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HIV after 40 in Rural South Africa1: A Life Course Approach to HIV Vulnerability among Middle Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Williams, Jill; Angotti, Nicole; Gómez-Olivé, Xavier

2015-01-01

South Africa has the highest number of people living with HIV in the world (over 6 million) as well as a rapidly aging population, with 15% of the population aged 50 and over. High HIV prevalence in rural former apartheid homeland areas suggests substantial aging with HIV and acquisition of HIV at older ages. We develop a life course approach to HIV vulnerability, highlighting the rise and fall of risk and protection as people age, as well as the role of contextual density in shaping HIV vulnerability. Using this approach, we draw on an innovative multi-method data set collected within the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa, combining survey data with 60 nested life history interviews and 9 community focus group interviews. We examine HIV risk and protective factors among adults aged 40–80, as well as how and why these vary among people at older ages. PMID:26364007

A Bottom-up Vulnerability Analysis of Water Systems with Decentralized Decision Making and Demographic Shifts- the Case of Jordan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachaut, T.; Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Talozi, S.; Mustafa, D.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Haddad, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.

2016-12-01

Probabilistic approaches to uncertainty in water systems management can face challenges of several types: non stationary climate, sudden shocks such as conflict-driven migrations, or the internal complexity and dynamics of large systems. There has been a rising trend in the development of bottom-up methods that place focus on the decision side instead of probability distributions and climate scenarios. These approaches are based on defining acceptability thresholds for the decision makers and considering the entire range of possibilities over which such thresholds are crossed. We aim at improving the knowledge on the applicability and relevance of this approach by enlarging its scope beyond climate uncertainty and single decision makers; thus including demographic shifts, internal system dynamics, and multiple stakeholders at different scales. This vulnerability analysis is part of the Jordan Water Project and makes use of an ambitious multi-agent model developed by its teams with the extensive cooperation of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan. The case of Jordan is a relevant example for migration spikes, rapid social changes, resource depletion and climate change impacts. The multi-agent modeling framework used provides a consistent structure to assess the vulnerability of complex water resources systems with distributed acceptability thresholds and stakeholder interaction. A proof of concept and preliminary results are presented for a non-probabilistic vulnerability analysis that involves different types of stakeholders, uncertainties other than climatic and the integration of threshold-based indicators. For each stakeholder (agent) a vulnerability matrix is constructed over a multi-dimensional domain, which includes various hydrologic and/or demographic variables.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned.

PubMed

Tuberville, Tracey D; Andrews, Kimberly M; Sperry, Jinelle H; Grosse, Andrew M

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan.

PubMed

Miettinen, Jukka; Liew, Soo Chin

2010-01-01

Peatlands cover around 13 Mha in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia. Human activities have rapidly increased in the peatland ecosystems during the last two decades, invariably degrading them and making them vulnerable to fires. This causes high carbon emissions that contribute to global climate change. For this article, we used 94 high resolution (10-20 m) satellite images to map the status of peatland degradation and development in Sumatra and Kalimantan using visual image interpretation. The results reveal that less than 4% of the peatland areas remain covered by pristine peatswamp forests (PSFs), while 37% are covered by PSFs with varying degree of degradation. Furthermore, over 20% is considered to be unmanaged degraded landscape, occupied by ferns, shrubs and secondary growth. This alarming extent of degradation makes peatlands vulnerable to accelerated peat decomposition and catastrophic fire episodes that will have global consequences. With on-going degradation and development the existence of the entire tropical peatland ecosystem in this region is in great danger.

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

HIV rapid testing in the framework of an STI prevention project on a cohort of vulnerable Italians and immigrants.

PubMed

Uccella, Ilaria; Petrelli, Alessio; Vescio, Maria Fenicia; De Carolis, Silvia; Fazioli, Cecilia; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Rezza, Gianni

2017-08-01

Uptake of HIV tests is a challenging issue in vulnerable populations including immigrants, normally using standard diagnostic tools. Objectives of this study were to evaluate the acceptability of HIV rapid test; estimate the percentage of newly HIV diagnoses and evaluate knowledge, attitudes and perception (KAP) about HIV/AIDS and other STIs in a specific set of immigrants and vulnerable population in Rome (Italy). All immigrant and Italian people, aged 16-70 years, attending the infectious disease outpatient clinic of the National Institute for Health, Migration and Poverty (INMP) in Rome (Italy), during the period December 2012 to December 2013 were enrolled. HIV rapid testing was provided for free and patients were asked to fill in a questionnaire evaluating KAP about HIV/STIs. All patients with risky sexual behaviours or with a recent diagnosis of STIs were invited to come back after 3-6 months and a post-counselling questionnaire was offered. Out of the total sample, 99.2% (n = 825) accepted the "rapid test" and 10 new HIV diagnoses were found (1.22%; 95% CI 0.58%-2.22%). Three hundred and eighty-five participants (47%) answered the entry questionnaire and 58 (15%) completed the follow-up. Overall, we found high knowledge about HIV/AIDS; however, lower educational level and immigrant status were associated with poor knowledge about HIV, other STIs and prevention methods. Immigrants have lower perception of sexual risk and higher prejudice than Italians. Our study showed high acceptance of rapid test in this specific vulnerable population and this allowed to identify new HIV diagnoses in unaware people. Socioeconomic inequalities observed in the KAP questionnaire suggest the need for actions to support the reduction of cultural differences in knowledge of HIV/AIDS and for policies aimed at improving access to health services and preventions programmes of marginalized populations.

Exploring Pacific Northwest ecosystem resilience: packaging climate change science for federal managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to jeopardize ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Managing ecosystems for future resilience requires collaboration, innovation and communication. The abundance of data and documents describing the uncertainty around both climate change projections and impacts has become challenging to managers who have little funding and limited time to digest and incorporate these materials into planning and implementation documents. We worked with US Forest Service and BLM managers to help them develop vulnerability assessments and identify on-the-ground strategies to address climate change challenges on the federal lands in northwest Oregon (Siuslaw, Willamette and Mt. Hood National Forests; Eugene and Salem BLM Districts). We held workshops to promote dialogue about climate change, which were particularly effective in fostering discussions between the managers who often do not have the time to share their knowledge and compare experiences across administrative boundaries. We used the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework to identify measurable management objectives and rapidly assess local vulnerabilities. We used databasin.org to centralize usable information, including state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate projections, for the mandated assessments of vulnerability and resilience. We introduced participants to a decision support framework providing opportunities to develop more effective adaptation strategies. We built a special web page to hold the information gathered at the workshops and provide easy access to climate change information. We are now working with several Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) to design gateways - conservation atlases - to their relevant data repositories on databasin.org and working with them to develop web tools that can provide usable information for their own vulnerability assessments.

Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

Participatory design of ehealth solutions for women from vulnerable populations with perinatal depression.

PubMed

Gordon, Mara; Henderson, Rebecca; Holmes, John H; Wolters, Maria K; Bennett, Ian M

2016-01-01

Cultural and health service obstacles affect the quality of pregnancy care that women from vulnerable populations receive. Using a participatory design approach, the Stress in Pregnancy: Improving Results with Interactive Technology group developed specifications for a suite of eHealth applications to improve the quality of perinatal mental health care. We established a longitudinal participatory design group consisting of low-income women with a history of antenatal depression, their prenatal providers, mental health specialists, an app developer, and researchers. The group met 20 times over 24 months. Applications were designed using rapid prototyping. Meetings were documented using field notes. The group achieved high levels of continuity and engagement. Three apps were developed by the group: an app to support high-risk women after discharge from hospital, a screening tool for depression, and a patient decision aid for supporting treatment choice. Longitudinal participatory design groups are a promising, highly feasible approach to developing technology for underserved populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang, 2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban environment is compared to the results obtained from similar software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA (Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response, on both local and global level, as well as public information.

Vulnerability of Oyster Resource Users to Ecological Change: Case Study from Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphries, A.; La Peyre, M.; Hall, S.; Dowty Beech, R.

2016-02-01

Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services including fisheries. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine if resource-dependent people are vulnerable to ecological change as anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors affect resources in different ways. In coastal Louisiana, the current era of rapid marsh loss and abrupt environmental variation (e.g., sediment diversions) has the potential to undermine oyster-associated livelihoods for those most vulnerable. To evaluate vulnerability, we examined dimensions of social sensitivity and adaptive capacity using semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups in the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Results indicate that oyster owners/operators are highly dependent, and thus sensitive, to changes in the ecological conditions of the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity; however they are likely adaptable, reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time. In contrast, oyster fishers that do not own any portion of the business in which they operate are bad at coping with change and frequently hold negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. Overall, oyster resource users most vulnerable to ecological change will be those with high levels of stewardship, open-minded values, and a balanced perception of environment, as well as low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust. These results suggest that resource users with higher sensitivity to change are not necessarily most vulnerable because sensitivity may be offset by adaptive capacity. In other words, while sensitivity may determine the potential impact of a climate- or human-induced ecological change to the oyster fishery, adaptive capacity can be a major influence on what impacts actually eventuate.

Climate Change and Developing-Country Cities: Implications For Environmental Health and Equity

PubMed Central

Corvalán, Carlos

2007-01-01

Climate change is an emerging threat to global public health. It is also highly inequitable, as the greatest risks are to the poorest populations, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The rapid economic development and the concurrent urbanization of poorer countries mean that developing-country cities will be both vulnerable to health hazards from climate change and, simultaneously, an increasing contributor to the problem. We review the specific health vulnerabilities of urban populations in developing countries and highlight the range of large direct health effects of energy policies that are concentrated in urban areas. Common vulnerability factors include coastal location, exposure to the urban heat-island effect, high levels of outdoor and indoor air pollution, high population density, and poor sanitation. There are clear opportunities for simultaneously improving health and cutting GHG emissions most obviously through policies related to transport systems, urban planning, building regulations and household energy supply. These influence some of the largest current global health burdens, including approximately 800,000 annual deaths from ambient urban air pollution, 1.2 million from road-traffic accidents, 1.9 million from physical inactivity, and 1.5 million per year from indoor air pollution. GHG emissions and health protection in developing-country cities are likely to become increasingly prominent in policy development. There is a need for a more active input from the health sector to ensure that development and health policies contribute to a preventive approach to local and global environmental sustainability, urban population health, and health equity. PMID:17393341

Ability of a rapid HIV testing site to attract and test vulnerable populations: a cross-sectional study on Actuel sur Rue.

PubMed

Engler, Kim; Rollet, Kathleen; Lessard, David; Thomas, Réjean; Lebouché, Bertrand

2016-10-01

Quebec's HIV epidemic persists, particularly among men who have sex with men (MSM) and in Montreal. Increasing access to HIV testing is necessary and community-based rapid testing offers one strategy. This paper examines the clienteles and activities of a rapid HIV testing site in Montreal, the pilot project Actuel sur Rue. Comparative analyses were conducted with 1357 MSM, 147 heterosexual men and 64 women who visited Actuel sur Rue between July 2012 and November 2013 on socio-demographics, health, drug use, sexual practices/infection and HIV testing/prevention. Significant group differences were observed in each category. Actuel sur Rue received 1901 clients, conducted 1417 rapid HIV tests and tested 77 never-tested individuals. Rapid testing produced a high reactive rate (2%). Only 1/28 of those with reactive tests had no previous HIV testing, and 36% had used post-exposure prophylaxis, suggesting missed opportunities for prevention. Findings highlight diverse client vulnerability profiles and the relevance of checkpoints and further prevention efforts. © The Author(s) 2016.

Research on the information security system in electrical gis system in mobile application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chao; Feng, Renjun; Jiang, Haitao; Huang, Wei; Zhu, Daohua

2017-05-01

With the rapid development of social informatization process, the demands of government, enterprise, and individuals for spatial information becomes larger. In addition, the combination of wireless network technology and spatial information technology promotes the generation and development of mobile technologies. In today’s rapidly developed information technology field, network technology and mobile communication have become the two pillar industries by leaps and bounds. They almost absorbed and adopted all the latest information, communication, computer, electronics and so on new technologies. Concomitantly, the network coverage is more and more big, the transmission rate is faster and faster, the volume of user’s terminal is smaller and smaller. What’s more, from LAN to WAN, from wired network to wireless network, from wired access to mobile wireless access, people’s demand for communication technology is increasingly higher. As a result, mobile communication technology is facing unprecedented challenges as well as unprecedented opportunities. When combined with the existing mobile communication network, it led to the development of leaps and bounds. However, due to the inherent dependence of the system on the existing computer communication network, information security problems cannot be ignored. Today’s information security has penetrated into all aspects of life. Information system is a complex computer system, and it’s physical, operational and management vulnerabilities constitute the security vulnerability of the system. Firstly, this paper analyzes the composition of mobile enterprise network and information security threat. Secondly, this paper puts forward the security planning and measures, and constructs the information security structure.

Food web structure and interaction strength pave the way for vulnerability to extinction.

PubMed

Karlsson, Patrik; Jonsson, Tomas; Jonsson, Annie

2007-11-07

This paper focuses on how food web structure and interactions among species affects the vulnerability, due to environmental variability, to extinction of species at different positions in model food webs. Vulnerability is here not measured by a traditional extinction threshold but is instead inspired by the IUCN criteria for endangered species: an observed rapid decline in population abundance. Using model webs influenced by stochasticity with zero autocorrelation, we investigate the ecological determinants of species vulnerability, i.e. the trophic interactions between species and food web structure and how these interact with the risk of sudden drops in abundance of species. We find that (i) producers fulfil the criterion of vulnerable species more frequently than other species, (ii) food web structure is related to vulnerability, and (iii) the vulnerability of species is greater when involved in a strong trophic interaction than when not. We note that our result on the relationship between extinction risk and trophic position of species contradict previous suggestions and argue that the main reason for the discrepancy probably is due to the fact that we study the vulnerability to environmental stochasticity and not extinction risk due to overexploitation, habitat destruction or interactions with introduced species. Thus, we suggest that the vulnerability of species to environmental stochasticity may be differently related to trophic position than the vulnerability of species to other factors. Earlier research on species extinctions has looked for intrinsic traits of species that correlate with increased vulnerability to extinction. However, to fully understand the extinction process we must also consider that species interactions may affect vulnerability and that not all extinctions are the result of long, gradual reductions in species abundances. Under environmental stochasticity (which importance frequently is assumed to increase as a result of climate change) and direct and indirect interactions with other species some extinctions may occur rapidly and apparently unexpectedly. To identify the first declines of population abundances that may escalate and lead to extinctions as early as possible, we need to recognize which species are at greatest risk of entering such dangerous routes and under what circumstances. This new perspective may contribute to our understanding of the processes leading to extinction of populations and eventually species. This is especially urgent in the light of the current biodiversity crisis where a large fraction of the world's biodiversity is threatened.

A Framework and Metric for resilience concept in water infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamouz, M.; Olyaei, M.

2017-12-01

The collaborators of water industries are looking for ways and means to bring resilience into our water infrastructure systems. The key to this conviction is to develop a shared vision among the engineers, builders and decision makers of our water executive branch and policy makers, utilities, community leaders, players, end users and other stakeholders of our urban environment. Among water infrastructures, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have a significant role on urban systems' serviceability. These facilities, especially when located in coastal regions, are vulnerable to heavy rain, surface runoff, storm surges and coastal flooding. Flooding can cause overflows from treatment facilities into the natural water bodies and result in environmental predicament of significant proportions. In order to minimize vulnerability to flood, a better understanding of flood risk must be realized. Vulnerability to floods frequency and intensity is increasing by external forcing such as climate change, as well as increased interdependencies in urban systems. Therefore, to quantify the extent of efforts for flood risk management, a unified index is needed for evaluating resiliency of infrastructure. Resiliency is a key concept in understanding vulnerability in dealing with flood. New York City based on its geographic location, its urbanized nature, densely populated area, interconnected water bodies and history of the past flooding events is extremely vulnerable to flood and was selected as the case study. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate resiliency of WWTPs. An analysis of the current understanding of vulnerability is performed and a new perspective utilizing different components of resiliency including resourcefulness, robustness, rapidity and redundancy is presented. To quantify resiliency and rank the wastewater treatment plants in terms of how resilient they are, an index is developed using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Moreover, Improvement of WWTPs' performance is investigated by allocating financial resources to attain a desirable level of resiliency. The result of this study shows the significant value of quantifying and improving flood resiliency of WWTPs that could be used for other water infrastructure and in planning of investment strategies for a region

Mapping human dimensions of climate change research in the Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Bolton, Kenyon; Shirley, Jamal; Pearce, Tristan; Tremblay, Martin; Westlake, Michael

2012-12-01

This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.

Bipolar disorder and antithyroid antibodies: review and case series.

PubMed

Bocchetta, Alberto; Traccis, Francesco; Mosca, Enrica; Serra, Alessandra; Tamburini, Giorgio; Loviselli, Andrea

2016-12-01

Mood disorders and circulating thyroid antibodies are very prevalent in the population and their concomitant occurrence may be due to chance. However, thyroid antibodies have been repeatedly hypothesized to play a role in specific forms of mood disorders. Potentially related forms include treatment-refractory cases, severe or atypical depression, and depression at specific phases of a woman's life (early gestation, postpartum depression, perimenopausal). With regard to bipolar disorder, studies of specific subgroups (rapid cycling, mixed, or depressive bipolar) have reported associations with thyroid antibodies. Offspring of bipolar subjects were found more vulnerable to develop thyroid antibodies independently from the vulnerability to develop psychiatric disorders. A twin study suggested thyroid antibodies among possible endophenotypes for bipolar disorder. Severe encephalopathies have been reported in association with Hashimoto's thyroiditis. Cases with pure psychiatric presentation are being reported, the antithyroid antibodies being probably markers of some other autoimmune disorders affecting the brain. Vasculitis resulting in abnormalities in cortical perfusion is one of the possible mechanisms.

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

2014-12-01

Hurricane Sandy and the recent floods in Thailand have demonstrated not only how sensitive the urban environment is to the impact of severe weather, but also the associated global reach of the ramifications. These, together with other growing extreme weather impacts and the increasing interdependence of global commercial activities point towards a growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership brings academia, industry and government together with the goals encouraging joint activities aimed at developing new, robust, and well-communicated responses to this increasing vulnerability. Integral to the approach is the concept of 'graceful failure' in which flexible designs are adopted that protect against failure by combining engineering or network strengths with a plan for efficient and rapid recovery if and when they fail. Such an approach enables optimal planning for both known future scenarios and their assessed uncertainty.

The GULLS project: a comparison of vulnerabilities across selected ocean hotspots and implications for adaptation to global change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochrane, K.; Hobday, A. J.; Aswani, S.; Byfield, V.; Dutra, L.; Gasalla, M.; Haward, M.; Paytan, A.; Pecl, G.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.; Popova, K.; Salim, S. S.; Savage, C.; Sauer, W.; van Putten, I. E.; Visser, N.; Team, T G

2016-12-01

The GULLS project, `Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities' has been underway since October 2014. The project has been investigating six regional `hotspots': marine areas experiencing rapid warming. These are south-east Australia, Brazil, India, Solomon Islands, South Africa, and the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. Rapid warming could be expected to have social, cultural and economic impacts that could affect these countries in different ways and may already be doing so. GULLS has focused on contributing to assessing and reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources and to facilitate adaptation to climate change and variability through an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach. It includes participants from Australia, Brazil, India, Madagascar, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The research programme has been divided into six inter-linked components: ocean models, biological and ecological sensitivity analyses, system models, social vulnerability, policy mapping, and communication and education. This presentation will provide a brief overview of each of these components and describe the benefits that have resulted from the collaborative and transdisciplinary approach of GULLS. Following the standard vulnerability elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, the vulnerabilities of coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources in the five hotspots will be compared using a set of indicators derived and populated from results of the research programme. The implications of similarities and differences between the hotspots for adaptation planning and options will be described.

Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

Hydropower and sustainability: resilience and vulnerability in China's powersheds.

PubMed

McNally, Amy; Magee, Darrin; Wolf, Aaron T

2009-07-01

Large dams represent a whole complex of social, economic and ecological processes, perhaps more than any other large infrastructure project. Today, countries with rapidly developing economies are constructing new dams to provide energy and flood control to growing populations in riparian and distant urban communities. If the system is lacking institutional capacity to absorb these physical and institutional changes there is potential for conflict, thereby threatening human security. In this paper, we propose analyzing sustainability (political, socioeconomic, and ecological) in terms of resilience versus vulnerability, framed within the spatial abstraction of a powershed. The powershed framework facilitates multi-scalar and transboundary analysis while remaining focused on the questions of resilience and vulnerability relating to hydropower dams. Focusing on examples from China, this paper describes the complex nature of dams using the sustainability and powershed frameworks. We then analyze the roles of institutions in China to understand the relationships between power, human security and the socio-ecological system. To inform the study of conflicts over dams China is a particularly useful case study because we can examine what happens at the international, national and local scales. The powershed perspective allows us to examine resilience and vulnerability across political boundaries from a dynamic, process-defined analytical scale while remaining focused on a host of questions relating to hydro-development that invoke drivers and impacts on national and sub-national scales. The ability to disaggregate the affects of hydropower dam construction from political boundaries allows for a deeper analysis of resilience and vulnerability. From our analysis we find that reforms in China's hydropower sector since 1996 have been motivated by the need to create stability at the national scale rather than resilient solutions to China's growing demand for energy and water resource control at the local and international scales. Some measures that improved economic development through the market economy and a combination of dam construction and institutional reform may indeed improve hydro-political resilience at a single scale. However, if China does address large-scale hydropower construction's potential to create multi-scale geopolitical tensions, they may be vulnerable to conflict - though not necessarily violent - in domestic and international political arenas. We conclude with a look toward a resilient basin institution for the Nu/Salween River, the site of a proposed large-scale hydropower development effort in China and Myanmar.

Are Vulnerability Disclosure Deadlines Justified?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miles McQueen; Jason L. Wright; Lawrence Wellman

2011-09-01

Vulnerability research organizations Rapid7, Google Security team, and Zero Day Initiative recently imposed grace periods for public disclosure of vulnerabilities. The grace periods ranged from 45 to 182 days, after which disclosure might occur with or without an effective mitigation from the affected software vendor. At this time there is indirect evidence that the shorter grace periods of 45 and 60 days may not be practical. However, there is strong evidence that the recently announced Zero Day Initiative grace period of 182 days yields benefit in speeding up the patch creation process, and may be practical for many software products.more » Unfortunately, there is also evidence that the 182 day grace period results in more vulnerability announcements without an available patch.« less

Fatality rates of the M w ~8.2, 1934, Bihar-Nepal earthquake and comparison with the April 2015 Gorkha earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapkota, Soma Nath; Bollinger, Laurent; Perrier, Frédéric

2016-03-01

Large Himalayan earthquakes expose rapidly growing populations of millions of people to high levels of seismic hazards, in particular in northeast India and Nepal. Calibrating vulnerability models specific to this region of the world is therefore crucial to the development of reliable mitigation measures. Here, we reevaluate the >15,700 casualties (8500 in Nepal and 7200 in India) from the M w ~8.2, 1934, Bihar-Nepal earthquake and calculate the fatality rates for this earthquake using an estimation of the population derived from two census held in 1921 and 1942. Values reach 0.7-1 % in the epicentral region, located in eastern Nepal, and 2-5 % in the urban areas of the Kathmandu valley. Assuming a constant vulnerability, we obtain, if the same earthquake would have repeated in 2011, fatalities of 33,000 in Nepal and 50,000 in India. Fast-growing population in India indeed must unavoidably lead to increased levels of casualty compared with Nepal, where the population growth is smaller. Aside from that probably robust fact, extrapolations have to be taken with great caution. Among other effects, building and life vulnerability could depend on population concentration and evolution of construction methods. Indeed, fatalities of the April 25, 2015, M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake indicated on average a reduction in building vulnerability in urban areas, while rural areas remained highly vulnerable. While effective scaling laws, function of the building stock, seem to describe these differences adequately, vulnerability in the case of an M w >8.2 earthquake remains largely unknown. Further research should be carried out urgently so that better prevention strategies can be implemented and building codes reevaluated on, adequately combining detailed ancient and modern data.

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

2017-04-01

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and Bangladesh. Several coastal sub-districts(Blocks in India, Upazila in Bangladesh) like Manpura, Basanti, Koyra, Teknaf, Sandeshkhali-II have maximum social vulnerability and have the potential to be adversely affected by environmental change, whereas several more inland sub-districts like Barrackpur-I, II, Panchlaish, Kotwali, Double Mooring have a comparatively low social vulnerability.This preliminary analysis of spatial variation of social vulnerability in the GBM delta suggests that a more intensive study of vulnerability and risk is required under a range of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes. The present study is a part of joint GBM delta study taken up by DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project as part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Tool for analyzing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding: the case of Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Bianchi, Renzo; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Kölz, Ehrfried; Lateltin, Olivier; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

Whatever the way used to protect property exposed to flood, there exists a residual risk. That is what feedbacks of past flooding show. This residual risk is on one hand linked with the possibility that the protection measures may fail or may not work as intended. The residual risk is on the other hand linked with the possibility that the flood exceeds the chosen level of protection.In many European countries, governments and insurance companies are thinking in terms of vulnerability reduction. This publication will present a new tool to evaluate the vulnerability of buildings in a context of flooding. This tool is developed by the project "Analysis of the vulnerability of buildings to flooding" which is funded by the Foundation for Prevention of Cantonal insurances, Switzerland. It is composed by three modules and it aims to provide a method for reducing the vulnerability of buildings to flooding. The first two modules allow identifying all the elements composing the building and listing it. The third module is dedicated to the choice of efficient risk reducing measures on the basis of cost-benefit analyses. The diagnostic tool for different parts of the building is being developed to allow real estate appraisers, insurance companies and homeowners rapidly assess the vulnerability of buildings in flood prone areas. The tool works with by several databases that have been selected from the collection and analysis of data, information, standards and feedback from risk management, hydrology, architecture, construction, materials engineering, insurance, or economy of construction. A method for determining the local hazard is also proposed, to determine the height of potential floods threatening a building, based on a back analysis of Swiss hazard maps. To calibrate the model, seven cantonal insurance institutions participate in the study by providing data, such as the the amount of damage in flooded areas. The poster will present some results from the development of the tool, such as the amount of damages to buildings and the possibility of analysis offered by the tool. Furthermore, analysis of data from the insurance company led to the emergence of trends in costs of damage due to flooding. Some graphics will be presented in the poster to illustrate the tool design. It will be shown that the tool allow for a census of buildings and the awareness of its vulnerability to flooding. A database development explanation concerning the remediation cost measures and the damage costs are also proposed. Simple and innovative remedial measures could be shown in the poster. By the help of some examples it is shown that the tool allows for an investigation of some interesting perspectives in the development of insurance strategies for building stocks in flood prone areas.

Using experiments and demographic models to assess rare plant vulnerability to utlity-scale solar energy development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, K. A.

2015-12-01

Pressing challenges for the implementation of solar energy are the effects of construction and operation on protected animal and plant species. Siting and mitigation of solar energy often requires understanding of basic biology and distributions of rare species that are unknown. How can we rapidly collect the information necessary on species- and site-specific population dynamics to effectively design mitigation and conservation measures? We have developed an integrated approach to assessing the vulnerability of a suite of representative rare plant species in the region. We implemented a prioritized series of demographic and experimental studies over the past four years to identify the types of species, populations, and life stages most vulnerable to impact or prone to conservation efforts. We have found substantial variation in vegetative and sexual reproduction between study populations for several rare plants, including between populations that vary in putative impact by development and/or effects of experimental solar arrays. For a subset of species, we designed population viability analysis and applied them to identify sensitive vital rates and compare quasi-extinction probabilities under different climate and impact scenarios. By utilizing practical experiments to test for the effects of real or simulated impacts, we found differences in vital rates between natural and disturbed populations adjacent to and within solar installations. We draw conclusions from our work to guide the analysis of benefits, permitting, and design of utility-scale solar energy facilities.

Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) Using MS Excel Spreadsheet: a Case Study of Fredericton (new Brunswick, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, H.; Stefanakis, E.; Nastev, M.

2016-06-01

Conventional knowledge of the flood hazard alone (extent and frequency) is not sufficient for informed decision-making. The public safety community needs tools and guidance to adequately undertake flood hazard risk assessment in order to estimate respective damages and social and economic losses. While many complex computer models have been developed for flood risk assessment, they require highly trained personnel to prepare the necessary input (hazard, inventory of the built environment, and vulnerabilities) and analyze model outputs. As such, tools which utilize open-source software or are built within popular desktop software programs are appealing alternatives. The recently developed Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) application runs scenario based loss assessment analyses in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. User input is limited to a handful of intuitive drop-down menus utilized to describe the building type, age, occupancy and the expected water level. In anticipation of local depth damage curves and other needed vulnerability parameters, those from the U.S. FEMA's Hazus-Flood software have been imported and temporarily accessed in conjunction with user input to display exposure and estimated economic losses related to the structure and the content of the building. Building types and occupancies representative of those most exposed to flooding in Fredericton (New Brunswick) were introduced and test flood scenarios were run. The algorithm was successfully validated against results from the Hazus-Flood model for the same building types and flood depths.

A climate-change adaptation framework to reduce continental-scale vulnerability across conservation reserves

Treesearch

D.R. Magness; J.M. Morton; F. Huettmann; F.S. Chapin; A.D. McGuire

2011-01-01

Rapid climate change, in conjunction with other anthropogenic drivers, has the potential to cause mass species extinction. To minimize this risk, conservation reserves need to be coordinated at multiple spatial scales because the climate envelopes of many species may shift rapidly across large geographic areas. In addition, novel species assemblages and ecological...

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

PubMed

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Design of Provider-Provisioned Website Protection Scheme against Malware Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagi, Takeshi; Tanimoto, Naoto; Hariu, Takeo; Itoh, Mitsutaka

Vulnerabilities in web applications expose computer networks to security threats, and many websites are used by attackers as hopping sites to attack other websites and user terminals. These incidents prevent service providers from constructing secure networking environments. To protect websites from attacks exploiting vulnerabilities in web applications, service providers use web application firewalls (WAFs). WAFs filter accesses from attackers by using signatures, which are generated based on the exploit codes of previous attacks. However, WAFs cannot filter unknown attacks because the signatures cannot reflect new types of attacks. In service provider environments, the number of exploit codes has recently increased rapidly because of the spread of vulnerable web applications that have been developed through cloud computing. Thus, generating signatures for all exploit codes is difficult. To solve these problems, our proposed scheme detects and filters malware downloads that are sent from websites which have already received exploit codes. In addition, to collect information for detecting malware downloads, web honeypots, which automatically extract the communication records of exploit codes, are used. According to the results of experiments using a prototype, our scheme can filter attacks automatically so that service providers can provide secure and cost-effective network environments.

[Novelties 2016 in pediatrics].

PubMed

Fischer Fumeaux, Céline J; Fletgen Richard, Carole; Goncalves Pereira Pinto, Diana; Stadelmann, Corinne; Avignon, Valérie; Vial, Yvan; Tolsa, Jean-François; Ambresin, Anne-Emmanuelle; Armengaud, Jean-Baptiste; Castaneda, Monica; Coti-Bertrand, Pauline; Deppen, Alain; Duvoisin, Gilles; Gebhard, Sandra; Holzer, Laurent; Lier, Françoise; Monney Chaubert, Carole; Pauchard, Jean-Yves; Typaldou, Sofia Anna; Hofer, Michaël

2017-01-11

Nutrition is central in pediatric care : essential for growth and development, it plays also a role in the prevention of many diseases.Even if breastfeeding is highly recommended, its implementation may be difficult in particular for premature and ill newborns. The creation of a specific unit for breastfeeding support in neonatology allows to help mothers willing to nurse and to improve the rate of breastfeeding for these vulnerable infants.Eating disorders represent an important challenge for patient care. Early detection and rapid management of anorexia is essential for the prognosis. This article describes the challenges and the practical process underlying the development of a practical guideline to manage children and adolescents hospitalized for anorexia.

Cyber situational awareness and differential hardening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, Anurag; Tebben, Dan

2012-06-01

The advent of cyber threats has created a need for a new network planning, design, architecture, operations, control, situational awareness, management, and maintenance paradigms. Primary considerations include the ability to assess cyber attack resiliency of the network, and rapidly detect, isolate, and operate during deliberate simultaneous attacks against the network nodes and links. Legacy network planning relied on automatic protection of a network in the event of a single fault or a very few simultaneous faults in mesh networks, but in the future it must be augmented to include improved network resiliency and vulnerability awareness to cyber attacks. Ability to design a resilient network requires the development of methods to define, and quantify the network resiliency to attacks, and to be able to develop new optimization strategies for maintaining operations in the midst of these newly emerging cyber threats. Ways to quantify resiliency, and its use in visualizing cyber vulnerability awareness and in identifying node or link criticality, are presented in the current work, as well as a methodology of differential network hardening based on the criticality profile of cyber network components.

Cyber Threat Assessment of Uplink and Commanding System for Mission Operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Adans Y.; Tan, Kymie M. C.; Cilloniz-Bicchi, Ferner; Faris, Grant

2014-01-01

Most of today's Mission Operations Systems (MOS) rely on Ground Data System (GDS) segment to mitigate cyber security risks. Unfortunately, IT security design is done separately from the design of GDS' mission operational capabilities. This incoherent practice leaves many security vulnerabilities in the system without any notice. This paper describes a new way to system engineering MOS, to include cyber threat risk assessments throughout the MOS development cycle, without this, it is impossible to design a dependable and reliable MOS to meet today's rapid changing cyber threat environment.

A High-Resolution Chronology of Rapid Forest Transitions following Polynesian Arrival in New Zealand

PubMed Central

McWethy, David B.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Whitlock, Cathy; Wood, Jamie R.; McGlone, Matt S.

2014-01-01

Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states. PMID:25372150

Humanitarian responses to mass violence perpetrated against vulnerable populations.

PubMed Central

Gellert, G. A.

1995-01-01

This multidisciplinary review links three areas of legitimate inquiry for practitioners of medicine and public health. The first is occurrences of mass violence or genocide perpetrated against vulnerable populations, with a focus on the failure of national and international mechanisms to prevent or predict such violence. The second is evolving concepts of national sovereignty and an emerging framework in which the imperative to assist vulnerable populations supersedes a state's right to self determination. The last is how medical, public health, and other systems of surveillance and rapid assessment of mass violence can accelerate public awareness and facilitate structured, consistent political decision making to prevent mass violence and to provide international humanitarian assistance. Images p1000-a PMID:7580643

Immigrant workers in the United States: recent trends, vulnerable populations, and challenges for occupational health.

PubMed

McCauley, Linda A

2005-07-01

Immigrant workers are a rapidly growing segment of the U.S. work force, and these increasing numbers have resulted in a different ethnic mix in the work force than in previous decades. Immigrant workers are not a homogenous group, but are over-represented in low-paying occupations. Their diversity and vulnerability present distinct challenges for occupational health nurses. High-risk occupations in which a large proportion of immigrant workers are hired include agriculture, sweatshops, day laborers, and construction. Initiatives needed to improve the working conditions of this vulnerable population include improved surveillance and research, culturally competent care providers, improved health care access, advocacy, and changes in immigration and health policy.

A Paradox of Town Spatial Development: The Growing Real Estate and Shrinking Town - a Case Study of Hsinchu County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Chi-Tung; Chuang, Mo-Hsiung; Lin, Wen-Yen

2017-04-01

The key factors of many discussions on shrinking towns are focusing at decreasing population and declining industries. Our study, using Hsinchu County as an example, has found that part of the county (Guanxi township) is following a typical and traditional town development pattern, while somewhere else of this county (Zhubei township) shows rapid growth in real estate but with a high vacancy rate. Even though the distance between Guanxi and Zhubei is less than 20 kilometers, the spatial development phenomenon of the two townships are both "shrinking" in the same county but very different in their developing paths. This study used GIS to overlay the maps from field survey and archive data, such as real estate prices of different years, environmental hazards and disaster records, local area power consumptions, and vulnerable population data, to clarify the causes and systems behind the shrinking phenomena of the two townships and to construct a theory of "shrinking town" in Taiwan. The contribution of this study is the findings of the tangling relations of the vulnerability from land-enclosure policy, the system design of local industrial development and urban planning, and structural factors of environmental hazards. Note: This study is part of the results from the Ministry of Science and Technology funding project (MOST 105-2621-M-120-002) KEYWORDS: shrinking town, environmental hazards, urban planning, spatial disasters, real estate development

A Case Study of Geologic Hazards Affecting School Buildings: Evaluating Seismic Structural Vulnerability and Landslide Hazards at Schools in Aizawl, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perley, M. M.; Guo, J.

2016-12-01

India's National School Safety Program (NSSP) aims to assess all government schools in earthquake prone regions of the country. To supplement the Mizoram State Government's recent survey of 141 government schools, we screened an additional 16 private and 4 government schools for structural vulnerabilities due to earthquakes, as well as landslide hazards, in Mizoram's capital of Aizawl. We developed a geomorphologically derived landslide susceptibility matrix, which was cross-checked with Aizawl Municipal Corporation's landslide hazard map (provided by Lettis Consultants International), to determine the geologic hazards at each school. Our research indicates that only 7% of the 22 assessed school buildings are located within low landslide hazard zones; 64% of the school buildings, with approximately 9,500 students, are located within very high or high landslide hazard zones. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was used to determine the structural earthquake vulnerability of each school building. RVS is an initial vulnerability assessment procedure used to inventory and rank buildings that may be hazardous during an earthquake. Our study indicates that all of the 22 assessed school buildings have a damageability rating of Grade 3 or higher on the 5-grade EMS scale, suggesting a significant vulnerability and potential for damage in buildings, ranging from widespread cracking of columns and beam column joints to collapse. Additionally, 86% of the schools we visited had reinforced concrete buildings constructed before Aizawl's building regulations were passed in 2007, which can be assumed to lack appropriate seismic reinforcement. Using our findings, we will give recommendations to the Government of Mizoram to prevent unnecessary loss of life by minimizing each school's landslide risk and ensuring schools are earthquake-resistant.

Extraction of lidar-based dune-crest elevations for use in examining the vulnerability of beaches to inundation during hurricanes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, H.F.; Doran, K.S.; Sallenger, A.H.

2009-01-01

The morphology of coastal sand dunes plays an important role in determining how a beach will respond to a hurricane. Accurate measurements of dune height and position are essential for assessing the vulnerability of beaches to extreme coastal change during future landfalls. Lidar topographic surveys provide rapid, accurate, high-resolution datasets for identifying the location, position, and morphology of coastal sand dunes over large stretches of coast. An algorithm has been developed for identification of the crest of the most seaward sand dune that defines the landward limit of the beach system. Based on changes in beach slope along cross-shore transects of lidar data, dune elevation and location can automatically be extracted every few meters along the coastline. Dune elevations in conjunction with storm-induced water levels can be used to predict the type of coastal response (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) that may be expected during hurricane landfall. The vulnerability of the beach system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York to the most extreme of these changes, inundation, is assessed by comparing lidar-derived dune elevations to modeled wave setup and storm surge height. The vulnerability of the beach system to inundation during landfall of a Category 3 hurricane is shown to be spatially variable because of longshore variations in dune height (mean elevation 5.44 m, standard deviation 1.32 m). Hurricane-induced mean water levels exceed dune elevations along 70 of the coastal park, making these locations more vulnerable to inundation during a Category 3 storm. ?? 2009 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan

2017-03-01

Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-01

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes

PubMed Central

Ganju, Neil K.; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-01

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability. PMID:28112167

Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes.

PubMed

Ganju, Neil K; Defne, Zafer; Kirwan, Matthew L; Fagherazzi, Sergio; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Carniello, Luca

2017-01-23

Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.

Characterization of an island aquifer from tidal response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Pallavi; Sarwade, Deepak; Singh, V. S.

2008-08-01

Growing demand for potable water for various needs has lead to indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater resources, particularly, in the terrain where surface water resources are negligible. One such area is an island where groundwater is the only source of fresh water. Groundwater is the prime source of fresh water on most of the atolls in the world. Groundwater on these islands is in the form of thin fragile floating lens and is often vulnerable to overexploitation, draught, tidal waves, tsunami and cyclone resulting in seawater ingress. Sustainable development of this meager source of fresh groundwater for a longer time becomes a more difficult task on small atolls with a large population depending on this vital resource. To develop a sustainable management scheme and identify the vulnerable part of aquifer, characterization of the aquifer system on islands is imperative. Groundwater on an atoll is extremely vulnerable to seawater mixing through natural as well as human activities. One such natural process is the tides of the ocean. The response of sea tide to the water table on the island offers valuable data as well as cost-effective means to characterize an aquifer system. Such characterization is vital for the management of groundwater resources on an atoll. The obtained results have compared well with the parameters obtained through a conventional pumping test. Therefore, the use of tidal response to the water table, which can easily be recorded, provides a rapid and cost-effective means to characterization of the aquifer system on the island.

Vulnerable to HIV / AIDS. Migration.

PubMed

Fernandez, I

1998-01-01

This special report discusses the impact of globalization, patterns of migration in Southeast Asia, gender issues in migration, the links between migration and HIV/AIDS, and spatial mobility and social networks. Migrants are particularly marginalized in countries that blame migrants for transmission of infectious and communicable diseases and other social ills. Effective control of HIV/AIDS among migrant and native populations requires a multisectoral approach. Programs should critically review the privatization of health care services and challenge economic models that polarize the rich and the poor, men and women, North and South, and migrant and native. Programs should recognize the equality between locals and migrants in receipt of health services. Countermeasures should have input from migrants in order to reduce the conditions that increase vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. Gender-oriented research is needed to understand women's role in migration. Rapid assessment has obscured the human dimension of migrants' vulnerability to HIV. Condom promotion is not enough. Migration is a major consequence of globalization, which holds the promise, real or imagined, of prosperity for all. Mass migration can be fueled by explosive regional developments. In Southeast Asia, migration has been part of the process of economic development. The potential to emigrate increases with greater per capita income. "Tiger" economies have been labor importers. Safe sex is not practiced in many Asian countries because risk is not taken seriously. Migrants tend to be used as economic tools, without consideration of social adjustment and sex behavior among singles.

Age-specific mortality patterns in Central Mozambique during and after the end of the Civil War.

PubMed

Noden, Bruce H; Pearson, R John C; Gomes, Aurelio

2011-05-26

In recent years, vigorous debate has developed concerning how conflicts contribute to the spread of infectious diseases, and in particular, the role of post-conflict situations in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. This study details the age-specific mortality patterns among the population in the central provincial capital of Beira, Mozambique, during and after the Mozambican civil war which ended in 1992. Data was collected from the death register at Beira's Central Hospital between 1985 and 2003 and descriptively analyzed. The data show two distinct periods: before and after the peace agreements in 1992. Before 1992 (during the civil war), the main impact of mortality was on children below 5 years of age, including still births, accounting for 58% of all deaths. After the war ended in 1992, the pattern shifted dramatically and rapidly to the 15-49 year old age group which accounted for 49% of all deaths by 2003. As under-5 mortality rates were decreasing at the end of the conflict, rates for 24-49 year old adults began to dramatically increase due to AIDS. This study demonstrates that strategies can be implemented during conflicts to decrease mortality rates in one vulnerable population but post-conflict dynamics can bring together other factors which contribute to the rapid spread of other infectious diseases in other vulnerable populations.

Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning

2018-03-01

Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.

Late pregnancy is vulnerable period for exposure to BPA.

PubMed

Ohtani, Naoko; Suda, Koshi; Tsuji, Erika; Tanemura, Kentaro; Yokota, Hiroshi; Inoue, Hiroki; Iwano, Hidetomo

2018-03-30

Bisphenol A (BPA) is among the better-known endocrine disruptors. BPA is used in various food-contacting materials and is easily eluted into food; as a result, we are exposed to BPA on a daily basis. In adults, BPA is metabolized and eliminated rapidly from the body. However, numerous reports suggest that fetuses and young children are susceptible to BPA. One of the concerning adverse effects of BPA is disruption of behavior, especially anxiety-like behavior. In order to study the mechanism of influences on offspring, it is important to clarify the most vulnerable gestation period. We hypothesized that offspring in late pregnancy would be more susceptible to BPA, because late pregnancy is a critical time for functional brain development. In this study, C57BL/6 mouse fetuses were exposed prenatally by oral dosing of pregnant dams, once daily from gestational day 5.5 to 12.5 (early pregnancy) or 11.5 to 18.5 (late pregnancy), with BPA (0 or 10 mg/kg body weight). Following birth and weaning, the resulting pups were tested using an elevated plus maze at postnatal week 10. The behavior of the offspring was altered by prenatal BPA exposure during late pregnancy but not during early pregnancy. These results indicated that offspring are more vulnerable to exposure to BPA in late pregnancy.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-01-01

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

The study and implementation of the wireless network data security model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Haifeng

2013-03-01

In recent years, the rapid development of Internet technology and the advent of information age, people are increasing the strong demand for the information products and the market for information technology. Particularly, the network security requirements have become more sophisticated. This paper analyzes the wireless network in the data security vulnerabilities. And a list of wireless networks in the framework is the serious defects with the related problems. It has proposed the virtual private network technology and wireless network security defense structure; and it also given the wireless networks and related network intrusion detection model for the detection strategies.

The Arab Spring and health: two years on.

PubMed

Coutts, Adam; Stuckler, David; Batniji, Rajaie; Ismail, Sharif; Maziak, Wasim; McKee, Martin

2013-01-01

The "Arab Spring" has touched almost all countries in the Middle East and North Africa. While most attention has focused on security and political developments, there are significant consequences for population health. These include immediate problems, such as violent deaths and injuries, population displacement, and damage to essential infrastructure, but also longer term vulnerabilities not yet addressed by the political changes, including high unemployment, the low status of women, erosion of already weak welfare systems, and rising food prices. It will be important to tackle these underlying issues while not repeating the mistakes made in other countries that have undergone rapid political transition.

Human neuroscience at National Institute on Drug Abuse: Implications for genetics research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gordon, H.W.

It is becoming clear that there is a genetic component to drug abuse. Family studies, adoption studies, and critical twin studies have all pointed to some genetic vulnerability or risk factors for an individual to abuse psychoactive drugs depending on certain psychopathologies in the biological parents and/or parents` own drug use. The question for the next generation of research at the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) is to apply the rapidly developing technology in molecular genetics in an effort to determine the candidate genes contributing to the risk. 19 refs.

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoodzadeh, Amir; Mazaheri, Mohammad Mehdi

At the present time there exist numerous weak buildings which are not able to withstand earthquakes. At the same time, both private and public developers are trying to use scientific methods to prioritize and allocate budget in order to reinforce the above mentioned structures. This is because of the limited financial resources and time. In the recent years the procedure of seismic assessment before rehabilitation of vulnerable buildings has been implemented in many countries. Now, it seems logical to reinforce the existing procedures with the mass of available data about the effects caused by earthquakes on buildings. The main ideamore » is driven from FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) in quality management where the main procedure is to recognize the failure, the causes, and the priority of each cause and failure. Specifying the causes and effects which lead to a certain shortcoming in structural behavior during earthquakes, an inventory is developed and each building is rated through a yes-or-no procedure. In this way, the rating of the structure is based on some standard forms which along with relative weights are developed in this study. The resulted criteria by rapid assessment will indicate whether the structure is to be demolished, has a high, medium or low vulnerability or is invulnerable.« less

Dynamic Flood Vulnerability Mapping with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Kuhn, C.; Max, S. A.; Sullivan, J.

2015-12-01

Satellites capture the rate and character of environmental change from local to global levels, yet integrating these changes into flood exposure models can be cost or time prohibitive. We explore an approach to global flood modeling by leveraging satellite data with computing power in Google Earth Engine to dynamically map flood hazards. Our research harnesses satellite imagery in two main ways: first to generate a globally consistent flood inundation layer and second to dynamically model flood vulnerability. Accurate and relevant hazard maps rely on high quality observation data. Advances in publicly available spatial, spectral, and radar data together with cloud computing allow us to improve existing efforts to develop a comprehensive flood extent database to support model training and calibration. This talk will demonstrate the classification results of algorithms developed in Earth Engine designed to detect flood events by combining observations from MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-1. Our method to derive flood footprints increases the number, resolution, and precision of spatial observations for flood events both in the US, recorded in the NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) storm events database, and globally, as recorded events from the Colorado Flood Observatory database. This improved dataset can then be used to train machine learning models that relate spatial temporal flood observations to satellite derived spatial temporal predictor variables such as precipitation, antecedent soil moisture, and impervious surface. This modeling approach allows us to rapidly update models with each new flood observation, providing near real time vulnerability maps. We will share the water detection algorithms used with each satellite and discuss flood detection results with examples from Bihar, India and the state of New York. We will also demonstrate how these flood observations are used to train machine learning models and estimate flood exposure. The final stage of our comprehensive approach to flood vulnerability couples inundation extent with social data to determine which flood exposed communities have the greatest propensity for loss. Specifically, by linking model outputs to census derived social vulnerability estimates (Indian and US, respectively) to predict how many people are at risk.

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of vulnerability assessments with the possibility for any user to retrieve assessments using specific research criteria. Furthermore, Vuwiki can serve as a collaborative knowledge platform that allows for the active participation of those generating and using the knowledge represented in the wiki.

Tennessee's In-state Vulnerability Assessment for a "Rapid Dissemination of Human Immunodeficiency Virus or Hepatitis C Virus Infection" Event Utilizing Data About the Opioid Epidemic.

PubMed

Rickles, Michael; Rebeiro, Peter F; Sizemore, Lindsey; Juarez, Paul; Mutter, Mitchell; Wester, Carolyn; McPheeters, Melissa

2018-05-17

Knowing which factors contribute to county-level vulnerability to a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) outbreak, and which counties are most vulnerable, guides public health and clinical interventions. We therefore examined the impact of locally available indicators related to the opioid epidemic on prior national models of HIV/HCV outbreak vulnerability. Tennessee's 95 counties were the study sample. Predictors from 2012 and 2013 were used, mirroring prior methodology from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Acute HCV incidence was the proxy measure of county-level vulnerability. Seventy-eight predictors were identified as potentially predictive for HIV/HCV vulnerability. We used multiple dimension reduction techniques to determine predictors for inclusion and Poisson regression to generate a composite index score ranking county-level vulnerability for HIV/HCV. There was overlap of high-risk counties with the national analysis (25 of 41 counties). The distribution of vulnerability reinforces earlier research indicating that eastern Tennessee is at particularly high risk but also demonstrates that the entire state has high vulnerability. Prior research placed Tennessee among the top states for opioid prescribing, acute HCV infection, and greatest risk for an HIV/HCV outbreak. Given this confluence of risk, the Tennessee Department of Health expanded upon prior work to include more granular, local data, including on opioid prescribing. We also explored nonfatal and fatal overdoses. The more complete statewide view of risk generated, not only in eastern counties but also in the western corridor, will enable local officials to monitor vulnerability and better target resources.

[Vulnerability of eco-economy in northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains].

PubMed

Wu, Jian-zhai; Li, Bo; Zhang, Xin-shi; Zhao, Wen-wu; Jiang, Guang-hui

2008-04-01

Based on the theoretical meaning of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of eco-econom in fifteen counties in the northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains was conducted. The ecosystem services change to land use was regarded as the impact, and based on the fourteen indices from resource holding, society development, and economy development statistic data, the adaptive ability was evaluated by using the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy synthetic evaluation. On the basis of assessment results of impact and adaptive capacity, the fifteen counties were divided into five classes under the assessment principles, and the district with higher-class number was of more vulnerability. The first class included Usu City and Changji City, the second class included Hutubi County, Miquan County, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Qitai County and Mori Kazak Autonomous County, the third class included Karamay City and Urumqi City, the fourth class included Kuitun City and Shawan County, and the fifth class included Jinghe County, Shihezi City and Manas County. The vulnerability reflected the level of eco-environment change and socioeconomic development, and the vulnerability assessment could be a good way to ensure the sustainable development. Aiming to decrease the vulnerability, various districts belonging to different class of vulnerability should establish relevant tactics according to the vulnerability factors to accelerate the region's sustainable development.

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Natural and Artificial (fluorescent) Tracers to Characterise Hydrogeological Functioning and to Protect Karst Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreo, B.; Mudarra, M.; Marin, A. I.; Barberá, J. A.

2012-12-01

The hydrogeological functioning and response of karst aquifers can be determined by the joint use of natural hydrogeochemical tracers, especially total organic carbon (TOC) and intrinsic fluorescence of water, together with artificial (fluorescent) tracers, under the same hydrodynamic conditions. Sharp and rapid variations in discharge, temperature, electrical conductivity and water chemistry, particularly of natural tracers of infiltration (TOC, intrinsic fluorescence and NO3-) recorded in karst spring water, confirm the existence of well developed karst conduits in the sector of the aquifer being drained, with rapid flows and very short water transit times from the surface to the springs (Mudarra et al., 2011). This is in agreement with the evidence obtained from breakthrough curves of fluorescent dye tracers (uranine, eosine, etc.). However, time lags between maximum concentrations of natural (especially TOC and intrinsic fluorescence) and artificial tracers show that the global system response is faster than that produced from a recharge concentrated at a point on the surface, even in karst sinkholes. Response and transit times of water through the karst can be calculated using both natural and artificial tracers, but flow velocities can really only be quantified using artificial tracers. Analysis of the responses obtained by natural tracers of infiltration (global system response) and artificial tracers (single response) in karst waters has revealed the usefulness and complementarity of both techniques for characterising the hydrogeological functioning of karst aquifers and, even more important, for validating contamination vulnerability mapping in these medium (Zwahlen, 2004; Andreo et al., 2006). In recent decades, several methods have been developed for such vulnerability mapping, but little progress has been made in validating their results. This validation is essential for the adequate protection of water resources in karst media, as has been shown in recent research (Marin et al., 2012; Ravbar et al., 2012). References: Andreo B, Goldscheider N, Vadillo I, Vías JM, Neukum C, Sinreich M, Jiménez P, Brechenmacher J, Carrasco F, Hötzl H, Perles MJ, Zwahlen F (2006a): Karst groundwater protection: First application of a Pan-European Approach to vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping in the Sierra de Líbar (Southern Spain). Science of the Total Environment, 357 1-3: 54-73. Marín AI, Andreo B and Dörfliger N (2012): Comparative application of two methods (COP and PaPRIKa) for groundwater vulnerability mapping in Mediterranean karst aquifers (France and Spain). Environmental Earth Sciences, 65: 2407-2421. Mudarra M, Andreo B and Baker A (2011): Characterisation of dissolved organic matter in karst spring waters using intrinsic fluorescence: Relationship with infiltration processes. Science of Total Environment, 40: 3448-3462. Ravbar N, Barberá JA, Petric M, Kogovsek J and Andreo B (2012): Study of hydrodynamic behaviour of a complex karst system under low-flow conditions using natural and artificial tracers (springs of the Unica River, SW Slovenia Environmental Earth Sciences, 65: 2259-2272. Zwahlen F -Editor- (2004). Vulnerability and risk mapping for the protection of carbonate (karst) aquifers, final report (COST action 620). - European Commission, Directorate-General XII Science, Research and Development: 297 pp.

Food security and nutritional outcomes among urban poor orphans in Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, Elizabeth W; Holding, Penny A; Fotso, Jean-Christophe; Ezeh, Alex C; Madise, Nyovani J; Kahurani, Elizabeth N; Zulu, Eliya M

2011-06-01

The study examines the relationship between orphanhood status and nutritional status and food security among children living in the rapidly growing and uniquely vulnerable slum settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. The study was conducted between January and June 2007 among children aged 6-14 years, living in informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya. Anthropometric measurements were taken using standard procedures and z scores generated using the NCHS/WHO reference. Data on food security were collected through separate interviews with children and their caregivers, and used to generate a composite food security score. Multiple regression analysis was done to determine factors related to vulnerability with regards to food security and nutritional outcomes. The results show that orphans were more vulnerable to food insecurity than non-orphans and that paternal orphans were the most vulnerable orphan group. However, these effects were not significant for nutritional status, which measures long-term food deficiencies. The results also show that the most vulnerable children are boys, those living in households with lowest socioeconomic status, with many dependants, and female-headed and headed by adults with low human capital (low education). This study provides useful insights to inform policies and practice to identify target groups and intervention programs to improve the welfare of orphans and vulnerable children living in urban poor communities.

Small Intestinal Infections.

PubMed

Munot, Khushboo; Kotler, Donald P

2016-06-01

Small intestinal infections are extremely common worldwide. They may be bacterial, viral, or parasitic in etiology. Most are foodborne or waterborne, with specific etiologies differing by region and with diverse pathophysiologies. Very young, very old, and immune-deficient individuals are the most vulnerable to morbidity or mortality from small intestinal infections. There have been significant advances in diagnostic sophistication with the development and early application of molecular diagnostic assays, though these tests have not become mainstream. The lack of rapid diagnoses combined with the self-limited nature of small intestinal infections has hampered the development of specific and effective treatments other than oral rehydration. Antibiotics are not indicated in the absence of an etiologic diagnosis, and not at all in the case of some infections.

A Toolset for Supporting Iterative Human Automation: Interaction in Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feary, Michael S.

2010-01-01

The addition of automation has greatly extended humans' capability to accomplish tasks, including those that are difficult, complex and safety critical. The majority of Human - Automation Interacton (HAl) results in more efficient and safe operations, ho,,:,ever ertain unpected atomatlon behaviors or "automation surprises" can be frustrating and, In certain safety critical operations (e.g. transporttion, manufacturing control, medicine), may result in injuries or. the loss of life.. (Mellor, 1994; Leveson, 1995; FAA, 1995; BASI, 1998; Sheridan, 2002). This papr describes he development of a design tool that enables on the rapid development and evaluation. of automaton prototypes. The ultimate goal of the work is to provide a design platform upon which automation surprise vulnerability analyses can be integrated.

Predicting plant vulnerability to drought in biodiverse regions using functional traits.

PubMed

Skelton, Robert Paul; West, Adam G; Dawson, Todd E

2015-05-05

Attempts to understand mechanisms underlying plant mortality during drought have led to the emergence of a hydraulic framework describing distinct hydraulic strategies among coexisting species. This framework distinguishes species that rapidly decrease stomatal conductance (gs), thereby maintaining high water potential (Px; isohydric), from those species that maintain relatively high gs at low Px, thereby maintaining carbon assimilation, albeit at the cost of loss of hydraulic conductivity (anisohydric). This framework is yet to be tested in biodiverse communities, potentially due to a lack of standardized reference values upon which hydraulic strategies can be defined. We developed a system of quantifying hydraulic strategy using indices from vulnerability curves and stomatal dehydration response curves and tested it in a speciose community from South Africa's Cape Floristic Region. Degree of stomatal regulation over cavitation was defined as the margin between Px at stomatal closure (Pg12) and Px at 50% loss of conductivity. To assess relationships between hydraulic strategy and mortality mechanisms, we developed proxies for carbon limitation and hydraulic failure using time since Pg12 and loss of conductivity at minimum seasonal Px, respectively. Our approach captured continuous variation along an isohydry/anisohydry axis and showed that this variation was linearly related to xylem safety margin. Degree of isohydry/anisohydry was associated with contrasting predictions for mortality during drought. Merging stomatal regulation strategies that represent an index of water use behavior with xylem vulnerability facilitates a more comprehensive framework with which to characterize plant response to drought, thus opening up an avenue for predicting the response of diverse communities to future droughts.

Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit local hazard mitigation and adaptation planning. The results to date in achieving the project objectives will be presented that include: analyses of scientific field data collected related to marsh vegetation biomass characteristics, analyses of TEK data collected, and mapping products developed.

Landscape and soil governance: A rapid vulnerability assessment method applied in a Paramo landscape in Northern Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammeraat, L. H.; Seijmonsbergen, A. C.; Sevink, J.

2009-04-01

The Andean paramo ecosystems constitute geodiversity hotspots of global importance, but also have important ecosystem functions. These include agricultural production (mostly livestock and high altitude crops such potatoes, but also forestry) and deliverance of water to be used for various purposes (drink water, irrigation water, hydroelectric power) in downstream catchments, often hosting major population concentrations and industries. Because of their alpine relief, extreme climate and overall fragile soils, Paramo ecosystems are susceptible to degradation upon land use, particularly under increased human pressure such as by encroaching agriculture, accelerated by climate change posing a further threat to the functioning of remaining more or less conserved or pristine Paramo areas. Throughout the more populated parts of the Andes, where land use has seriously intensified over the past decades, degradation has become rampant with associated losses of the functions mentioned. To this comes an increased worldwide demand for minerals, leading to their exploration and large-scale exploitation in hitherto inaccessible and remote areas, such as the higher parts of the Andes. Not surprising, the mining issue and related environmental hazards are high on the political agenda of most Andean countries, though not always based on scientific knowledge of its potential impacts in specific areas. A rapid assessment methodology is presented for the Las Lagunas region near Cajamarca in Northern Peru. The method includes prefield segmentation and classification of Landsat ETM+ and ASTER imagery, complemented with detailed aerial photo interpretation. The results are stored in a GIS geodatabase and supplemented with data from field surveys. This leads to rapid and sound postfield analyses and vulnerability classifications using simple GIS tools. The results are pointing at four important issues in relation to soil and landscape governance and identification of vulnerability zones: 1) The widespread glacial deposits of the former local icecap and overlying peat areas form an important but unexplored proxy for climate change, 2) The fragile soils contain large amounts of organic matter and are important as carbon stocks, 3) Increased water use will lower groundwater levels and lead to oxidation of peat and hence reduction in carbon storage, 4) Climate change will lead to increased human pressure (e.g. increased grazing) on the fragile ecosystem making it more vulnerable for degradation and loss of soil water retention. Apart from the scientific value of the assessment and its potential for application in other mountain areas, it is of utmost importance for projecting future managing strategies that should be implemented in regional planning to prevent unnecessary loss of irreplaceable soils and landscapes as well as to optimize sustainable use of resources and sustainable development of these areas.

Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 (IVCF-20): rapid recognition of frail older adults

PubMed Central

de Moraes, Edgar Nunes; do Carmo, Juliana Alves; de Moraes, Flávia Lanna; Azevedo, Raquel Souza; Machado, Carla Jorge; Montilla, Dalia Elena Romero

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the adequacy of the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20, a rapid triage instrument to test vulnerability in Brazilian older adults, for the use in primary health care. METHODS The study included convenience sample of 397 patients aged older than or equal to 60 years attended at Centro de Referência para o Idoso (Reference Center for Older Adults) and of 52 older adults the same age attended at the community. The results of the questionnaire, consisting of 20 questions, were compared with those of the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, considered a reference for identifying frail older adults. Spearman’s correlation was evaluated in the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment; the validity was verified by the area under the ROC curve; reliability was estimated by the percentage of agreement among evaluators and by the kappa coefficient, both with quadratic weighted. The cut-off point was obtained based on the higher accuracy criterion. Cronbach’s alpha, a measure of internal consistency, was estimated. RESULTS The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was high and positive for both groups (0.792 for older adults attended at the Reference Center and 0.305 for older adults from the community [p < 0.001]). The area under the ROC curve for older adults attended at the Reference Center was substantial (0.903). The cut-off point obtained was six, and older adults with scores in Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 above that value had strong possibility of being frail. For older adults from the community, the quadratic weighted agreement among evaluators was 99.5%, and the global quadratic weighted kappa coefficient was 0.94. Cronbach’s alpha was high for older adults attended at the Reference Center (0.861) and those attended at the community (0.740). CONCLUSIONS The Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 questionnaire, in the sample examined, turned out to be positively correlated with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, in addition to the results indicating a high degree of validity and reliability. Thus, the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 proves to be viable as a triage instrument in the primary health care that identifies frail older adults (older adults at risk of weakening and frail older adults). PMID:28099667

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Socio-economic vulnerability of coastal communities in southern Thailand: the development of adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willroth, P.; Massmann, F.; Wehrhahn, R.; Revilla Diez, J.

2012-08-01

The tsunami of December 2004 impacted large areas of Thailand's coastline and caused severe human and economic losses. The recovery period revealed differences in the vulnerabilities of communities affected. An understanding of the causal factors of vulnerability is crucial for minimising the negative effects of future threats and developing adaptive capacities. This paper analyses the vulnerabilities and the development of adaptation strategies in the booming tourist area of Khao Lak and in the predominantly fishing and agricultural area of Ban Nam Khem through a comprehensive vulnerability framework. The results show that social networks played a crucial role in coping with the disaster. Social cohesion is important for strengthening the community and developing successful adaptation strategies. The development of tourism and the turning away from traditional activities have a significant positive influence on the income situation, but create a dependency on a single business sector. It could be shown that households generating their income in the tourism sector were vulnerable unless they had diversified their income previously. Income diversification decreased the vulnerability in the study areas. Adaptation strategies and processes developed in the aftermath clearly address these issues.

Caribbean small-island tourism styles and sustainable strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Albuquerque, Klaus; McElroy, Jerome L.

1992-09-01

This article focuses on developing a sustainable tourism in small Caribbean islands, defined here as those that have populations of fewer than 500,000. Such islands share a very fragile ecology and a high dependence on tourism. They differ in their degree of tourist penetration and visitor density and the related degree of environmental degradation. To explain the link between tourism intensity and ecological vulnerability, the so-called “destination life-cycle model” is presented. This suggests that islands pass through three primary stages of tourist development low-density exploration, rapid growth and consolidation, and high-density maturation involving the substitution of man-made for natural attractions. A broad empirical test of the model is performed through a quantitative examination of the tourism characteristics and visitor densities of a cross section of 23 small Caribbean islands. The three basic stages or tourism styles are identified: low-impact emerging areas, high-density mass-market mature destinations, and rapidly growing intermediate islands in between. Some broad strategies consistent with the systems framework for a sustainable tourism with moderate densitites are briefly explored.

Chaos, co-existence, and the potential for collective action: HIV-related vulnerability in Brazil's international borders.

PubMed

Lippman, Sheri A; Kerrigan, Deanna; Chinaglia, Magda; Díaz, Juan

2007-06-01

In a country where quality HIV/AIDS prevention and care has been foremost on the national agenda, Brazil's extensive and diverse borders are one of the last unstudied potential hotbeds of HIV vulnerability. We carried out a rapid assessment of HIV-related services and the social context of HIV/AIDS at the Brazilian borders including current governmental and community response. The assessment was implemented in six frontier municipalities using the WHO's strategic approach methodology, which combines existing epidemiologic data with field-based qualitative data collection techniques, including observation of service delivery points and in-depth interviews and focus groups with local leaders, providers, and community members, in order to recommend context-specific HIV prevention strategies. This paper focuses on the qualitative findings regarding the role of the social context in shaping HIV vulnerability at the Brazilian borders. We documented a profound lack of governmental structure and response to HIV/AIDS at the borders as well as a notable absence of social cohesion and mobilization among the diverse population groups and communities situated at the borders with regard to HIV/AIDS. The weak governmental and community response is situated within a larger socio-political context of economic inequity and social division, which must be addressed if an effective response to HIV can be developed at Brazil's international borders. Possibilities for encouraging a collective response among the diverse border populations are explored.

Statistics of software vulnerability detection in certification testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

2018-05-01

The paper discusses practical aspects of introduction of the methods to detect software vulnerability in the day-to-day activities of the accredited testing laboratory. It presents the approval results of the vulnerability detection methods as part of the study of the open source software and the software that is a test object of the certification tests under information security requirements, including software for communication networks. Results of the study showing the allocation of identified vulnerabilities by types of attacks, country of origin, programming languages used in the development, methods for detecting vulnerability, etc. are given. The experience of foreign information security certification systems related to the detection of certified software vulnerabilities is analyzed. The main conclusion based on the study is the need to implement practices for developing secure software in the development life cycle processes. The conclusions and recommendations for the testing laboratories on the implementation of the vulnerability analysis methods are laid down.

RNAi screen for rapid therapeutic target identification in leukemia patients

PubMed Central

Tyner, Jeffrey W.; Deininger, Michael W.; Loriaux, Marc M.; Chang, Bill H.; Gotlib, Jason R.; Willis, Stephanie G.; Erickson, Heidi; Kovacsovics, Tibor; O'Hare, Thomas; Heinrich, Michael C.; Druker, Brian J.

2009-01-01

Targeted therapy has vastly improved outcomes in certain types of cancer. Extension of this paradigm across a broad spectrum of malignancies will require an efficient method to determine the molecular vulnerabilities of cancerous cells. Improvements in sequencing technology will soon enable high-throughput sequencing of entire genomes of cancer patients; however, determining the relevance of identified sequence variants will require complementary functional analyses. Here, we report an RNAi-assisted protein target identification (RAPID) technology that individually assesses targeting of each member of the tyrosine kinase gene family. We demonstrate that RAPID screening of primary leukemia cells from 30 patients identifies targets that are critical to survival of the malignant cells from 10 of these individuals. We identify known, activating mutations in JAK2 and K-RAS, as well as patient-specific sensitivity to down-regulation of FLT1, CSF1R, PDGFR, ROR1, EPHA4/5, JAK1/3, LMTK3, LYN, FYN, PTK2B, and N-RAS. We also describe a previously undescribed, somatic, activating mutation in the thrombopoietin receptor that is sensitive to down-stream pharmacologic inhibition. Hence, the RAPID technique can quickly identify molecular vulnerabilities in malignant cells. Combination of this technique with whole-genome sequencing will represent an ideal tool for oncogenic target identification such that specific therapies can be matched with individual patients. PMID:19433805

Vulnerability Assessment Using LIDAR Data in Silang-Sta Rosa Subwatershed, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragais, M. A.; Magcale-Macandog, D. B.; Arizapa, J. L.; Manalo, K. M.

2016-10-01

Silang-Sta. Rosa Subwatershed is experiencing rapid urbanization. Its downstream area is already urbanized and the development is moving fast upstream. With the rapid land conversion of pervious to impervious areas and increase frequency of intense rainfall events, the downstream of the watershed is at risk of flood hazard. The widely used freeware HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System) model was used to implement the 2D unsteady flow analysis to develop a flood hazard map. The LiDAR derived digital elevation model (DEM) with 1m resolution provided detailed terrain that is vital for producing reliable flood extent map that can be used for early warning system. With the detailed information from the simulation like areas to be flooded, the predicted depth and duration, we can now provide specific flood forecasting and mitigation plan even at community level. The methodology of using 2D unsteady flow modelling and high resolution DEM in a watershed can be replicated to other neighbouring watersheds specially those areas that are not yet urbanized so that their development will be guided to be flood hazard resilient. LGUs all over the country will benefit from having a high resolution flood hazard map.

Spatial patterns monitoring of road traffic injuries in Karachi metropolis.

PubMed

Lateef, Muhammad U

2011-06-01

This article aims to assess the pattern of road traffic injuries (RTIs) and fatalities in Karachi metropolis. Assessing the pattern of RTIs in Karachi at this juncture is important for many reasons. The rapid motorisation in the recent years due to the availability of credit has significantly increased the traffic volume of the city. Since then, the roads of Karachi have continuously developed at a rapid pace. This development has come with a high human loss, because the construction of multilevel flyovers, signal-free corridors and the resulting high-speed traffic ultimately increase the severity of injuries. The reasons for this high proportion are inadequate infrastructure, poor enforcement of safety regulations, high crash severity index and greater population of vulnerable road user groups (riders and pedestrians). This research is the first of its kind in the country to have a geocoded database of fatalities and injuries in a geographical information system for the entire city of Karachi. In fact, road crashes are both predictable and preventable. Developing countries should learn from the experience of highly motorised nations to avoid the high burden of RTIs by adopting road safety and prevention measures.

Development of urban green space monitoring technique with remote sensing and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gradinaru, Cristian; Herban, Ioan Sorin; Gabor, Cristian

2016-06-01

City is the important area of earth's surface material, energy, and information exchanging; also it is the centre of national, regional political, economic, scientific and cultural aspects. A mere 10% of the global population were urban dwellers in 1900, but that percentage exceeds 50% now (Grimm et al. 2008). With the rapid economic development, city is suffering from a series of serious problems such as air pollution, solid waste pollution, vegetation reduction, deterioration of water quality and living environment. Threats to our environment represent a clear danger in the context of climate change, which is part of the "Global Change", and it is obvious that action is needed right now to protect our quality of life, particularly for those most vulnerable to health threats from environmental and technological disasters. Therefore, our top priority should be to avoid human and material losses. The security area is not only defined by disaster management, but by a wide variety of events that could affect the environment and the population's health. Following the rapid development of urban areas, a present tendency is represented by the study of those factors that place some areas in categories with high risk for natural and anthropic hazard.

The food industry and conflicts of interest in nutrition research: A Latin American perspective.

PubMed

Barnoya, Joaquin; Nestle, Marion

2016-12-01

Conflicts of interest arise when corporations marketing harmful products establish financial relationships with research institutions, researchers, or public health organizations. As obesity becomes a worldwide epidemic, such relationships threaten to jeopardize the integrity of scientific research. Latin America, a region undergoing rapid development, is particularly vulnerable to such conflicts. Here, we provide examples of how food and beverage companies are funding nutrition-focused research and institutions in Latin America, putting their credibility at risk. Public health organizations and institutions should take measures to identify, manage, and limit (or eliminate) conflicts of interest caused by partnerships with food companies making and marketing unhealthful products.

Let's Stop Trying to Quantify Household Vulnerability: The Problem With Simple Scales for Targeting and Evaluating Economic Strengthening Programs.

PubMed

Moret, Whitney M

2018-03-21

Economic strengthening practitioners are increasingly seeking data collection tools that will help them target households vulnerable to HIV and poor child well-being outcomes, match households to appropriate interventions, monitor their status, and determine readiness for graduation from project support. This article discusses efforts in 3 countries to develop simple, valid tools to quantify and classify economic vulnerability status. In Côte d'Ivoire, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with 3,749 households to develop a scale based on the definition of HIV-related economic vulnerability from the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) for the purpose of targeting vulnerable households for PEPFAR-funded programs for orphans and vulnerable children. The vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures, and thus we were unable to develop a scale. In Uganda, we assessed the validity of a vulnerability index developed to classify households according to donor classifications of economic status by measuring its association with a validated poverty measure, finding only a modest correlation. In South Africa, we developed monitoring and evaluation tools to assess economic status of individual adolescent girls and their households. We found no significant correlation with our validation measures, which included a validated measure of girls' vulnerability to HIV, a validated poverty measure, and subjective classifications generated by the community, data collector, and respondent. Overall, none of the measures of economic vulnerability used in the 3 countries varied significantly with their proposed validation items. Our findings suggest that broad constructs of economic vulnerability cannot be readily captured using simple scales to classify households and individuals in a way that accounts for a substantial amount of variance at locally defined vulnerability levels. We recommend that researchers and implementers design monitoring and evaluation instruments to capture narrower definitions of vulnerability based on characteristics programs intend to affect. We also recommend using separate tools for targeting based on context-specific indicators with evidence-based links to negative outcomes. Policy makers and donors should avoid reliance on simplified metrics of economic vulnerability in the programs they support. © Moret.

Environmental pollutants and aging: Investigating and modeling mechanisms of susceptibility in later life.

EPA Science Inventory

The rapidly expanding population of older adults raises new concerns over their potential vulnerability to environmental pollutants. Decreases in organ-system function and defenses, coupled with reduced metabolic capacity and clearance, are likely mechanisms for enhanced vulnerab...

A Comparison of Transient-Radiation Effects Vulnerability Analysis with Experimental Results

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

Electronic Equipment to TRE: TII-22/TG, TD -352/U, TD -353/U, SN-421/TPX-50, C-7651, and RT-9031/TPX-50 (U), Harry Diamond Laboratories, HDL-PR-80-3 (July...shown in the figure, the output voltage rapidly drops off once 1Q3 x 8 Q2 becomes less than 200. The failure threshold was set at 170. 1.0. 1.0 , o /t...5) P. A. Trimmer, Vulnerability of Army Electronic Aquipment to TRE: TH-22/TG, TD -352/U, TD -353/U, SN-421/TPX-50, C-7651, and RT- 9031/TPX-50 (U

Noncompliance and drug toxicity in black, poor, and aged patients.

PubMed

Miller, R L; Algee, J

1978-10-01

Drug toxicity is a common medical problem. Continued increases in drug toxicity are related to the extensive, indiscriminate use of drugs. This is a national health problem which is caused partly by gaps in pharmacology as a basic and clinical science and partly by the rapid proliferation of drugs (the drug explosion) in the past 30 years. Socioeconomically disadvantaged (black, poor, and aged) patients are particularly vulnerable to compliance problems and drug toxicity. In this presentation we discuss the basis for this increased vulnerability and suggest strategies that practicing physicians can use to minimize both compliance problems and drug toxicity.

Post-fire Tree Mortality: Heating Increases Vulnerability to Cavitation in Longleaf Pine Branches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lodge, A.; Kavanagh, K.; Dickinson, M. B.

2016-12-01

Tree mortality following wild and prescribed fires is of interest to both researchers and land managers. While some models exist that can predict mortality following fires, process-based models that incorporate physiological mechanisms of mortality are still being developed and improved. Delayed post-fire tree mortality has recently received increased attention, in part due to an increased use of prescribed fire as a restoration and management tool. One hypothesized mechanism of delayed mortality in trees is disruption of water transport in xylem due to exposure to the heat plume of a fire. This heat plume rapidly increases the vapor pressure deficit in the tree canopy, quickly increasing the tension on the water held in the xylem and leaves, potentially leading to cavitation. Cavitated xylem conduits can no longer transport water, eventually leading to tree death. We conducted a laboratory experiment examining whether heating stems increases their vulnerability to cavitation. We placed longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) branches in a water bath at sub-lethal temperatures (<60°C) and applied pressure in a cavitation chamber to simulate a range of xylem tension levels that may occur during fire. Percent loss of conductivity was measured following cavitation induced by various levels of applied pressure. When we compared the resulting vulnerability curves of heated branches to those of branches pressurized at room temperature, we observed increased vulnerability to cavitation in the heated samples especially at lower pressures. P50, or the pressure at which 50% of conductivity has been lost, decreased by 18% on branches heated to approximately 54°C. This suggests that stems heated during fires may be more vulnerable to cavitation, and provides some support for hydraulic disruption as a mechanism for post-fire tree mortality. Continued advancement in understanding of the mechanisms leading to delayed mortality will improve models predicting tree mortality.

Engineering a horseradish peroxidase C stable to radical attacks by mutating multiple radical coupling sites.

PubMed

Kim, Su Jin; Joo, Jeong Chan; Song, Bong Keun; Yoo, Young Je; Kim, Yong Hwan

2015-04-01

Peroxidases have great potential as industrial biocatalysts. In particular, the oxidative polymerization of phenolic compounds catalyzed by peroxidases has been extensively examined because of the advantage of this method over other conventional chemical methods. However, the industrial application of peroxidases is often limited because of their rapid inactivation by phenoxyl radicals during oxidative polymerization. In this work, we report a novel protein engineering approach to improve the radical stability of horseradish peroxidase isozyme C (HRPC). Phenylalanine residues that are vulnerable to modification by the phenoxyl radicals were identified using mass spectrometry analysis. UV-Vis and CD spectra showed that radical coupling did not change the secondary structure or the active site of HRPC. Four phenylalanine (Phe) residues (F68, F142, F143, and F179) were each mutated to alanine residues to generate single mutants to examine the role of these sites in radical coupling. Despite marginal improvement of radical stability, each single mutant still exhibited rapid radical inactivation. To further reduce inactivation by radical coupling, the four substitution mutations were combined in F68A/F142A/F143A/F179A. This mutant demonstrated dramatic enhancement of radical stability by retaining 41% of its initial activity compared to the wild-type, which was completely inactivated. Structure and sequence alignment revealed that radical-vulnerable Phe residues of HPRC are conserved in homologous peroxidases, which showed the same rapid inactivation tendency as HRPC. Based on our site-directed mutagenesis and biochemical characterization, we have shown that engineering radical-vulnerable residues to eliminate multiple radical coupling can be a good strategy to improve the stability of peroxidases against radical attack. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Fresco, Nancy; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Danell, Kjell; Chapin, F Stuart

2004-08-01

Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term.

Factors affecting the United Nations' response to natural disasters: what determines the allocation of the Central Emergency Response Fund?

PubMed

Robinson, Tyler D; Oliveira, Thiago M; Kayden, Stephanie

2017-10-01

Natural disasters can overwhelm the domestic response of a country, leaving it dependent on external humanitarian relief. The Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) of the United Nations centralises humanitarian funding and thus allows for a rapid response. This study combined data to analyse the factors that affected the allocation of CERF funding to countries that suffered a natural disaster between 2007 and 2013. It generated descriptive statistics and information on relative risks, and performed regressions of CERF funding across countries. There were 4,346 disasters in total in 188 countries between 2007 and 2013. CERF provided USD 2.98 billion to 87 countries, comprising 3.3 per cent of their total humanitarian funding. CERF more frequently supplied aid to countries in North Africa and the Middle East, and to those that had suffered geophysical disasters. Appropriately, it funds vulnerable countries experiencing severe natural disasters, yet its funding may be affected by variables beyond severity and vulnerability. Further investigation is warranted, therefore. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Nemesis Autonomous Test System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barltrop, Kevin J.; Lee, Cin-Young; Horvath, Gregory A,; Clement, Bradley J.

2012-01-01

A generalized framework has been developed for systems validation that can be applied to both traditional and autonomous systems. The framework consists of an automated test case generation and execution system called Nemesis that rapidly and thoroughly identifies flaws or vulnerabilities within a system. By applying genetic optimization and goal-seeking algorithms on the test equipment side, a "war game" is conducted between a system and its complementary nemesis. The end result of the war games is a collection of scenarios that reveals any undesirable behaviors of the system under test. The software provides a reusable framework to evolve test scenarios using genetic algorithms using an operation model of the system under test. It can automatically generate and execute test cases that reveal flaws in behaviorally complex systems. Genetic algorithms focus the exploration of tests on the set of test cases that most effectively reveals the flaws and vulnerabilities of the system under test. It leverages advances in state- and model-based engineering, which are essential in defining the behavior of autonomous systems. It also uses goal networks to describe test scenarios.

A versatile method for groundwater vulnerability projections in future scenarios.

PubMed

Stevenazzi, Stefania; Bonfanti, Marianna; Masetti, Marco; Nghiem, Son V; Sorichetta, Alessandro

2017-02-01

Water scarcity and associated risks are serious societal problems. A major challenge for the future will be to ensure the short-term and long-term provision of accessible and safe freshwater to meet the needs of the rapidly growing human population and changes in land cover and land use, where conservation and protection play a key role. Through a Bayesian spatial statistical method, a time-dependent approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment is developed to account for both the recent status of groundwater contamination and its evolution, as required by the European Union (Groundwater Directive, 2006/118/EC). This approach combines natural and anthropogenic factors to identify areas with a critical combination of high levels and increasing trends of nitrate concentrations, together with a quantitative evaluation of how different future scenarios would impact the quality of groundwater resources in a given area. In particular, the proposed approach can determine potential impacts on groundwater resources if policies are maintained at the status quo or if new measures are implemented for safeguarding groundwater quality, as natural factors are changing under climatic or anthropogenic stresses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modelling for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in Salatiga groundwater basin, Central Java Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesuma, D. A.; Purwanto, P.; Putranto, T. T.; Rahmani, T. P. D.

2017-06-01

The increase in human population as well as area development in Salatiga Groundwater Basin, Central Java Province, will increase the potency of groundwater contamination in that area. Groundwater quality, especially the shallow groundwater, is very vulnerable to the contamination from industrial waste, fertilizer/agricultural waste, and domestic waste. The first step in the conservation of groundwater quality is by conducting the mapping of the groundwater vulnerability zonation against the contamination. The result of this research was groundwater vulnerability map which showed the areas vulnerable to the groundwater contamination. In this study, groundwater vulnerability map was assessed based on the DRASTIC Method and was processed spatially using Geographic Information System. The DRASTIC method is used to assess the level of groundwater vulnerability based on weighting on seven parameters, which are: depth to the water table (D), recharge (R), aquifer material (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The higher the DRASTIC Index will result in the higher vulnerability level of groundwater contamination in that area. The DRASTIC Indexes in the researched area were 85 - 100 (low vulnerability level), 101 -120 (low to moderate vulnerability level), 121 - 140 (moderate vulnerability level), 141 - 150, (moderate to high vulnerability level), and 151 - 159 (high vulnerability level). The output of this study can be used by local authority as a tool for consideration to arrange the policy for sustainable area development, especially the development in an area affecting the quality of Salatiga Groundwater Basin.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Casting light on xylem vulnerability in an herbaceous species reveals a lack of segmentation.

PubMed

Skelton, Robert P; Brodribb, Timothy J; Choat, Brendan

2017-04-01

Finding thresholds at which loss of plant functionality occurs during drought is critical for predicting future crop productivity and survival. Xylem resistance to embolism has been suggested as a key trait associated with water-stress tolerance. Although a substantial literature exists describing the vulnerability of woody stems to embolism, leaves and roots of herbaceous species remain under-represented. Also, little is known about vulnerability to embolism at a whole-plant scale or propagation of embolism within plants. New techniques to view the process of embolism formation provide opportunities to resolve long-standing questions. Here, we used multiple visual techniques, including X-ray micro-computed tomography and the optical vulnerability method, to investigate the spread of embolism within intact stems, leaves and roots of Solanum lycopersicum (common tomato). We found that roots, stems and leaves of tomato plants all exhibited similar vulnerability to embolism, suggesting that embolism rapidly propagates among tissues. Although we found scarce evidence for differentiation of xylem vulnerability among tissues at the scale of the whole plant, within a leaf the midrib embolized at higher water potentials than lower order veins. Substantial overlap between the onset of cavitation and incipient leaf damage suggests that cavitation represents a substantial damage to plants, but the point of lethal cavitation in this herbaceous species remains uncertain. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

The impact of HIV / AIDS on child survival and development in Kenya.

PubMed

Wekesa, E

2000-01-01

This paper focuses on the impact of HIV/AIDS on child survival and development in Kenya. The rapid spread of HIV, mainly through heterosexual contact and mother-to child transmission, contributes to the increasing rates of infant and under-five mortality in Kenyan provinces. Moreover, the impact of AIDS on the well-being of children is likely to worsen, as preliminary findings of the 1999 sentinel surveillance data indicate that HIV prevalence among the adult population is still rising. Poverty increases the vulnerability of children to HIV/AIDS. In addition, it may increase the likelihood that women become commercial sex workers as an alternative source of income. Poverty also increases the risk of illness and death through poor access to basic services. Poor environmental sanitation and lack of access to safe water sources increase the vulnerability of children to the impact of the infection. As a consequence, more and more children will be infected and affected by HIV/AIDS, and the ability of HIV-positive parents to care for their children will be impaired, while the number of orphans will continue to increase dramatically as parents die within a short period. Recommended strategies in combating the epidemic and improving the well-being of children are outlined.

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Diesel Powered School Buses: An Update.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gresham, Robert

1984-01-01

Because diesel engines are more economical and longer-lasting than gasoline engines, school districts are rapidly increasing their use of diesel buses. Dependence on diesel power, however, entails vulnerability to cost increases due to the unreliability of crude oil supplies and contributes to air pollution. (MCG)

Assessment of Masonry Buildings Subjected to Landslide-Induced Settlements: From Load Path Method to Evolutionary Optimization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmisano, Fabrizio; Elia, Angelo

2017-10-01

One of the main difficulties, when dealing with landslide structural vulnerability, is the diagnosis of the causes of crack patterns. This is also due to the excessive complexity of models based on classical structural mechanics that makes them inappropriate especially when there is the necessity to perform a rapid vulnerability assessment at the territorial scale. This is why, a new approach, based on a ‘simple model’ (i.e. the Load Path Method, LPM), has been proposed by Palmisano and Elia for the interpretation of the behaviour of masonry buildings subjected to landslide-induced settlements. However, the LPM is very useful for rapidly finding the 'most plausible solution' instead of the exact solution. To find the solution, optimization algorithms are necessary. In this scenario, this article aims to show how the Bidirectional Evolutionary Structural Optimization method by Huang and Xie, can be very useful to optimize the strut-and-tie models obtained by using the Load Path Method.

Comment on Peck et al: Vulnerability of pteropod (Limacina helicina) to ocean acidification: shell dissolution occurs despite an intact organic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bednaršek, N.; Johnson, J.; Feely, R. A.

2016-05-01

Pteropods have been recognized as one of the most sensitive marine organisms to ocean acidification (OA). Their susceptibility is mostly related to rapid shell dissolution, which is correlated with exposure to waters undersaturated with respect to aragonite (Ωar≤ 1) (e.g., Lischka et al., 2011; Bednaršek et al., 2012a,b, 2014a,b; Busch et al., 2014). Increased dissolution weakens the shell, increases vulnerability to predation and infection, and imposes an energetic cost. The rapidity of shell dissolution is attributed to the combination of metastable aragonitic crystal structure of shells that are among the thinnest known for calcifying organisms, and an extremely thin outer organic layer (i.e. periostracum <1 μm thick), suggesting insufficient protection against shell dissolution at Ωar≤1 (Bednaršek et al., 2014b). The periostracum generally consists of polysaccharide and proteinaceous components (Gaffey and Bronnimann, 1993) but varies significantly in its structure and composition amongst taxa.

Urban Vulnerability Assessment to Seismic Hazard through Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis. Case Study: the Bucharest Municipality/Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas, Iuliana; Dumitrascu, Silvia; Bostenaru, Maria

2010-05-01

In the context of an explosive increase in value of the damage caused by natural disasters, an alarming challenge in the third millennium is the rapid growth of urban population in vulnerable areas. Cities are, by definition, very fragile socio-ecological systems with a high level of vulnerability when it comes to environmental changes and that are responsible for important transformations of the space, determining dysfunctions shown in the state of the natural variables (Parker and Mitchell, 1995, The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database). A contributing factor is the demographic dynamic that affects urban areas. The aim of this study is to estimate the overall vulnerability of the urban area of Bucharest in the context of the seismic hazard, by using environmental, socio-economic, and physical measurable variables in the framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. For this approach the capital city of Romania was chosen based on its high vulnerability due to the explosive urban development and the advanced state of degradation of the buildings (most of the building stock being built between 1940 and 1977). Combining these attributes with the seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea source, Bucharest was ranked as the 10th capital city worldwide in the terms of seismic risk. Over 40 years of experience in the natural risk field shows that the only directly accessible way to reduce the natural risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the space (Adger et al., 2001, Turner et al., 2003; UN/ISDR, 2004, Dayton-Johnson, 2004, Kasperson et al., 2005; Birkmann, 2006 etc.). In effect, reducing the vulnerability of urban spaces would imply lower costs produced by natural disasters. By applying the SMCA method, the result reveals a circular pattern, signaling as hot spots the Bucharest historic centre (located on a river terrace and with aged building stock) and peripheral areas (isolated from the emergency centers and defined by precarious social and economic conditions). In effect, the example of Bucharest demonstrates how the results shape the ‘vulnerability to seismic hazard profile of the city, based on which decision makers could develop proper mitigation strategies. To sum up, the use of an analytical framework as the standard Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA) - despite all difficulties in creating justifiable weights (Yeh et al., 1999) - results in accurate estimations of the state of the urban system. Although this method was often mistrusted by decision makers (Janssen, 2001), we consider that the results can represent, based on precisely the level of generalization, a decision support framework for policy makers to critically reflect on possible risk mitigation plans. Further study will lead to the improvement of the analysis by integrating a series of daytime and nighttime scenarios and a better definition of the constructed space variables.

Respondent-driven sampling for an adolescent health study in vulnerable urban settings: a multi-country study.

PubMed

Decker, Michele R; Marshall, Beth Dail; Emerson, Mark; Kalamar, Amanda; Covarrubias, Laura; Astone, Nan; Wang, Ziliang; Gao, Ersheng; Mashimbye, Lawrence; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Acharya, Rajib; Olumide, Adesola; Ojengbede, Oladosu; Blum, Robert W; Sonenstein, Freya L

2014-12-01

The global adolescent population is larger than ever before and is rapidly urbanizing. Global surveillance systems to monitor youth health typically use household- and school-based recruitment methods. These systems risk not reaching the most marginalized youth made vulnerable by conditions of migration, civil conflict, and other forms of individual and structural vulnerability. We describe the methodology of the Well-Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments survey, which used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit male and female youth aged 15-19 years and living in economically distressed urban settings in Baltimore, MD; Johannesburg, South Africa; Ibadan, Nigeria; New Delhi, India; and Shanghai, China (migrant youth only) for a cross-sectional study. We describe a shared recruitment and survey administration protocol across the five sites, present recruitment parameters, and illustrate challenges and necessary adaptations for use of RDS with youth in disadvantaged urban settings. We describe the reach of RDS into populations of youth who may be missed by traditional household- and school-based sampling. Across all sites, an estimated 9.6% were unstably housed; among those enrolled in school, absenteeism was pervasive with 29% having missed over 6 days of school in the past month. Overall findings confirm the feasibility, efficiency, and utility of RDS in quickly reaching diverse samples of youth, including those both in and out of school and those unstably housed, and provide direction for optimizing RDS methods with this population. In our rapidly urbanizing global landscape with an unprecedented youth population, RDS may serve as a valuable tool in complementing existing household- and school-based methods for health-related surveillance that can guide policy. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Respondent-driven sampling for an adolescent health study in vulnerable urban settings: a multi-country study

PubMed Central

Decker, Michele R.; Marshall, Beth; Emerson, Mark; Kalamar, Amanda; Covarrubias, Laura; Astone, Nan; Wang, Ziliang; Gao, Ersheng; Mashimbye, Lawrence; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Acharya, Rajib; Olumide, Adesola; Ojengbede, Oladosu; Blum, Robert

2015-01-01

The global adolescent population is larger than ever before and is rapidly urbanizing. Global surveillance systems to monitor youth health typically use household- and school-based recruitment methods. These systems risk not reaching the most marginalized youth made vulnerable by conditions of migration, civil conflict and other forms of individual and structural vulnerability. We describe the methodology of the Well Being of Adolescents in Vulnerable Environments (WAVE) survey, which used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit male and female youth aged 15 to 19 years and living in economically distressed urban settings in Baltimore, USA, Johannesburg, South Africa, Ibadan, Nigeria, Delhi, India and Shanghai, China (migrant youth only) for a cross-sectional study. We describe a shared recruitment and survey administration protocol across the five sites, present recruitment parameters, and illustrate challenges and necessary adaptations for use of RDS with youth in disadvantaged urban settings. We describe the reach of RDS into populations of youth who may be missed by traditional householdbased and school-based sampling. Across all sites, an estimated 9.6% were unstably housed; among those enrolled in school, absenteeism was pervasive with 29% having missed over 6 days of school in the past month. Overall findings confirm the feasibility, efficiency and utility of RDS in quickly reaching diverse samples of youth, including those both in and out of school and those unstably housed, and provide direction for optimizing RDS methods with this population. In our rapidly urbanizing global landscape with an unprecedented youth population, RDS may serve as a valuable tool in complementing existing household- and school-based methods for health-related surveillance that can guide policy. PMID:25454005

Protecting human health in a changing world: the role of social and economic development.

PubMed Central

Woodward, A.; Hales, S.; Litidamu, N.; Phillips, D.; Martin, J.

2000-01-01

The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in this paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that are likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. In fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. It is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors--economic, social and environmental--to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health. PMID:11019463

Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.

PubMed

Esterhuyse, Surina; Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J

2017-11-01

Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article.

Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction

PubMed Central

Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A. Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article. PMID:29291094

Addressing vulnerability, building resilience: community-based adaptation to vector-borne diseases in the context of global change.

PubMed

Bardosh, Kevin Louis; Ryan, Sadie J; Ebi, Kris; Welburn, Susan; Singer, Burton

2017-12-11

The threat of a rapidly changing planet - of coupled social, environmental and climatic change - pose new conceptual and practical challenges in responding to vector-borne diseases. These include non-linear and uncertain spatial-temporal change dynamics associated with climate, animals, land, water, food, settlement, conflict, ecology and human socio-cultural, economic and political-institutional systems. To date, research efforts have been dominated by disease modeling, which has provided limited practical advice to policymakers and practitioners in developing policies and programmes on the ground. In this paper, we provide an alternative biosocial perspective grounded in social science insights, drawing upon concepts of vulnerability, resilience, participation and community-based adaptation. Our analysis was informed by a realist review (provided in the Additional file 2) focused on seven major climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases: malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue, leishmaniasis, sleeping sickness, chagas disease, and rift valley fever. Here, we situate our analysis of existing community-based interventions within the context of global change processes and the wider social science literature. We identify and discuss best practices and conceptual principles that should guide future community-based efforts to mitigate human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. We argue that more focused attention and investments are needed in meaningful public participation, appropriate technologies, the strengthening of health systems, sustainable development, wider institutional changes and attention to the social determinants of health, including the drivers of co-infection. In order to respond effectively to uncertain future scenarios for vector-borne disease in a changing world, more attention needs to be given to building resilient and equitable systems in the present.

Vulnerability inducing technologies: An initial appreciation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reinhardt, G.C.

The arms control community continues to act as though vulnerability were directly proportional to numbers of nuclear weapons, however rapidly they would voice their rejection of such a proposition if it were placed before them in an intellectual forum. Such neglect in matching action to knowledge is a well-known human phenomenon, but in this case it is particularly troublesome. START manages to reduce the numbers of weapons to just the right extent to encourage damage limiting. The present number of nuclear weapons on either side probably provides a robust deterrent; six thousand probably does not. To make matters worse, wemore » live in a period of burgeoning technical expansion, so that even with the best intent on both sides, new technology threatens to cause new vulnerabilities in strategic systems. To pin a shorthand label on the problem, we will refer to vulnerability inducing technology as ''VIT.'' In order to appreciate VIT, we will make a rough quantification of its consequences. This will at least provide some incentive for further study because the consequences are grave indeed. 2 tabs.« less

Let's Stop Trying to Quantify Household Vulnerability: The Problem With Simple Scales for Targeting and Evaluating Economic Strengthening Programs

PubMed Central

Moret, Whitney M

2018-01-01

Introduction: Economic strengthening practitioners are increasingly seeking data collection tools that will help them target households vulnerable to HIV and poor child well-being outcomes, match households to appropriate interventions, monitor their status, and determine readiness for graduation from project support. This article discusses efforts in 3 countries to develop simple, valid tools to quantify and classify economic vulnerability status. Methods and Findings: In Côte d'Ivoire, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with 3,749 households to develop a scale based on the definition of HIV-related economic vulnerability from the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) for the purpose of targeting vulnerable households for PEPFAR-funded programs for orphans and vulnerable children. The vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures, and thus we were unable to develop a scale. In Uganda, we assessed the validity of a vulnerability index developed to classify households according to donor classifications of economic status by measuring its association with a validated poverty measure, finding only a modest correlation. In South Africa, we developed monitoring and evaluation tools to assess economic status of individual adolescent girls and their households. We found no significant correlation with our validation measures, which included a validated measure of girls' vulnerability to HIV, a validated poverty measure, and subjective classifications generated by the community, data collector, and respondent. Overall, none of the measures of economic vulnerability used in the 3 countries varied significantly with their proposed validation items. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that broad constructs of economic vulnerability cannot be readily captured using simple scales to classify households and individuals in a way that accounts for a substantial amount of variance at locally defined vulnerability levels. We recommend that researchers and implementers design monitoring and evaluation instruments to capture narrower definitions of vulnerability based on characteristics programs intend to affect. We also recommend using separate tools for targeting based on context-specific indicators with evidence-based links to negative outcomes. Policy makers and donors should avoid reliance on simplified metrics of economic vulnerability in the programs they support. PMID:29496734

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment.

PubMed

Jamrah, Ahmad; Al-Futaisi, Ahmed; Rajmohan, Natarajan; Al-Yaroubi, Saif

2008-12-01

A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.

Glycogen synthase kinase-3 levels and phosphorylation undergo large fluctuations in mouse brain during development

PubMed Central

Beurel, Eléonore; Mines, Marjelo A; Song, Ling; Jope, Richard S

2012-01-01

Objectives Dysregulated glycogen synthase kinase-3 (GSK3) may contribute to the pathophysiology of mood disorders and other diseases, and appears to be a target of certain therapeutic drugs. The growing recognition of heightened vulnerability during development to many psychiatric diseases, including mood disorders, led us to test if there are developmental changes in mouse brain GSK3 and its regulation by phosphorylation and by therapeutic drugs. Methods GSK3 levels and phosphorylation were measured at seven ages of development in mouse cerebral cortex and hippocampus. Results Two periods of rapid transitions in GSK3 levels were identified, a large rise between postnatal day 1 and two to three weeks of age, where GSK3 levels were as high as four-fold adult mouse brain levels, and a rapid decline between two to four and eight weeks of age, when adult levels were reached. Inhibitory serine-phosphorylation of GSK3, particularly GSK3β, was extremely high in one-day postnatal mouse brain, and rapidly declined thereafter. These developmental changes in GSK3 were equivalent in male and female cerebral cortex, and differed from other signaling kinases, including Akt, ERK1/2, JNK, and p38 levels and phosphorylation. In contrast to adult mouse brain, where administration of lithium or fluoxetine rapidly and robustly increased serine-phosphorylation of GSK3, in young mice these responses were blunted or absent. Conclusions High brain levels of GSK3 and large fluctuations in its levels and phosphorylation in juvenile and adolescent mouse brain raise the possibility that they may contribute to destabilized mood regulation induced by environmental and genetic factors. PMID:23167932

Trustworthy History and Provenance for Files and Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasan, Ragib

2009-01-01

In today's world, information is increasingly created, processed, transmitted, and stored digitally. While the digital nature of information has brought enormous benefits, it has also created new vulnerabilities and attacks against data. Unlike physical documents, digitally stored information can be rapidly copied, erased, or modified. The…

Toxicology and senescence: Baseline variability and toluene effects on the motor function of aging brown Norway rats.

EPA Science Inventory

The rapidly expanding population of older adults raises concern in EPA over aging-related vulnerability to environmental exposures. Deficits in motor function are frequent with advancing age. An increase in interindividual variability is also commonly accepted. Increased variabil...

Creating Asset-Rich Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Teresa Northern; Leslie-Toogood, Adrienne; Kaff, Marilyn

2005-01-01

Adolescents today face increasing challenges, while the support systems that should help them meet and surmount those challenges are rapidly disappearing. Yearly statistics on teen substance abuse, depression, suicide, and violent crime continue to escalate. Teens with low attachments to school are most vulnerable because they are less likely to…

75 FR 30383 - NOAA's Arctic Vision and Strategy; Comment Period Extension

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-01

... evidence of widespread and dramatic ongoing change. As a result, critical environmental, economic, and... public comment period by fifteen days. The Arctic has profound significance for climate and functioning of ecosystems around the globe. The region is particularly vulnerable and prone to rapid change...

Experimental modification of interpretation bias about animal fear in young children: effects on cognition, avoidance behavior, anxiety vulnerability, and physiological responding.

PubMed

Lester, Kathryn J; Field, Andy P; Muris, Peter

2011-01-01

This study investigated the effects of experimentally modifying interpretation biases for children's cognitions, avoidance behavior, anxiety vulnerability, and physiological responding. Sixty-seven children (6-11 years) were randomly assigned to receive a positive or negative interpretation bias modification procedure to induce interpretation biases toward or away from threat about ambiguous situations involving Australian marsupials. Children rapidly learned to select outcomes of ambiguous situations, which were congruent with their assigned condition. Furthermore, following positive modification, children's threat biases about novel ambiguous situations significantly decreased, whereas threat biases significantly increased after negative modification. In response to a stress-evoking behavioral avoidance test, positive modification attenuated behavioral avoidance compared to negative modification. However, no significant effects of bias modification on anxiety vulnerability or physiological responses to this stress-evoking Behavioral Avoidance Task were observed.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogaji, K. A.

2017-04-01

Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is capable of producing efficient groundwater vulnerability potential zones prediction map and characterizing the predicted zones uncertainty via the DST mechanism processes in the area. The produced GVPZ map in this study can be used by decision makers to formulate appropriate groundwater management strategies and the approach may be well opted in other hard rock regions of the world, especially in economically poor nations.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

THE US EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: A RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR 2001-2006

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program is to develop all
approach to quantifying regional ecological vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted and prioritized. ReVA's focus is, to develop a set of methods that are applica...

Key Factors Influencing Rapid Development of Potentially Dune-Stabilizing Moss-Dominated Crusts

PubMed Central

Bu, Chongfeng; Zhang, Kankan; Zhang, Chunyun; Wu, Shufang

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are a widespread photosynthetic ground cover in arid and semiarid areas. They have many positive ecological functions, such as increasing soil stability, and reducing water and wind erosion. Using artificial technology to achieve the rapid development of BSCs is expected to become a low-cost and highly beneficial ecological restoration measure. In the present study, typical moss-dominated crusts in a region characterized by mobile dunes (Mu Us Sandland, China) were collected, and a 40-day cultivation experiment was performed to investigate key factors, including watering frequency, light intensity and a nutrient addition, which affect the rapid development of moss crusts and their optimal combination. The results demonstrated that watering frequency and illumination had a significant positive effect (P=0.049, three-factor ANOVA) and a highly significant, complicated effect (P=0.000, three-factor ANOVA), respectively, on the plant density of bryophytes, and a highly significant positive effect on the chlorophyll a and exopolysaccharide contents (P=0.000, P=0.000; P=0.000, P=0.000; one-way ANOVA). Knop nutrient solution did not have a significant positive but rather negative effect on the promotion of moss-dominated crust development (P=0.270, three-factor ANOVA). Moss-dominated crusts treated with the combination of moderate-intensity light (6,000 lx) + high watering frequency (1 watering/2 days) - Knop had the highest moss plant densities, while the treatment with high-intensity light (12,000 lx) + high watering frequency (1 watering/2 days) + Knop nutrient solution had higher chlorophyll a contents than that under other treatments. It is entirely feasible to achieve the rapid development of moss crusts under laboratory conditions by regulating key factors and creating the right environment. Future applications may seek to use cultured bryophytes to control erosion in vulnerable areas with urgent needs. PMID:26230324

Data security issues arising from integration of wireless access into healthcare networks.

PubMed

Frenzel, John C

2003-04-01

The versatility of having Ethernet speed connectivity without wires is rapidly driving adoption of wireless data networking by end users across all types of industry. Designed to be easy to configure and work among diverse platforms, wireless brings online data to mobile users. This functionality is particularly useful in modern clinical medicine. Wireless presents operators of networks containing or transmitting sensitive and confidential data with several new types of security vulnerabilities, and potentially opens previously protected core network resources to outside attack. Herein, we review the types of vulnerabilities, the tools necessary to exploit them, and strategies to thwart a successful attack.

Noncompliance and Drug Toxicity in Black, Poor, and Aged Patients

PubMed Central

Miller, Russell L.; Algee, John

1978-01-01

Drug toxicity is a common medical problem. Continued increases in drug toxicity are related to the extensive, indiscriminate use of drugs. This is a national health problem which is caused partly by gaps in pharmacology as a basic and clinical science and partly by the rapid proliferation of drugs (the drug explosion) in the past 30 years. Socioeconomically disadvantaged (black, poor, and aged) patients are particularly vulnerable to compliance problems and drug toxicity. In this presentation we discuss the basis for this increased vulnerability and suggest strategies that practicing physicians can use to minimize both compliance problems and drug toxicity. PMID:712862

Systematic technology evaluation program for SiC/SiC composite-based accident-tolerant LWR fuel cladding and core structures: Revision 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katoh, Yutai; Terrani, Kurt A.

2015-08-01

Fuels and core structures in current light water reactors (LWR’s) are vulnerable to catastrophic failure in severe accidents as unfortunately evidenced by the March 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident. This vulnerability is attributed primarily to the rapid oxidation kinetics of zirconium alloys in a water vapor environment at very high temperatures. Zr alloys are the primary material in LWR cores except for the fuel itself. Therefore, alternative materials with reduced oxidation kinetics as compared to zirconium alloys are sought to enable enhanced accident-tolerant fuels and cores.

Blood Flow in Stenotic Carotid Bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayz, Vitaliy L.; Williamson, Shobha Devi; Berger, Stanley A.; Saloner, David

2004-11-01

Mechanical forces induced by blood flow on an arterial wall play an important role in the development and growth of atherosclerotic plaque. To assess vulnerability of a plaque it is important to model the flow in a realistic, patient-specific geometry. Three-dimensional models of stenotic carotid bifurcations were obtained from MR images and grids were generated for the flow domains. The unsteady, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations were solved numerically using physiological boundary conditions. The results obtained by computations were compared with in-vivo ultrasound measurements and flow visualization experiments carried out for the same geometry. The simulations show a high velocity jet forming at the stenotic throat and a strong recirculation zone downstream of the stenosis. The jet grows rapidly during the systolic part of the pulse. During diastole the flow is more stagnant. The flow is highly three-dimensional and unsteady which is clearly demonstrated by the flow streamlines. These unsteady flows cause rapid temporal and spatial changes of the forces acting on the atherosclerotic plaque, which has important effects on its growth and stability.

Rapid earthquake hazard and loss assessment for Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, Mustafa; Sesetyan, Karin; Demircioglu, Mine; Hancilar, Ufuk; Zulfikar, Can; Cakti, Eser; Kamer, Yaver; Yenidogan, Cem; Tuzun, Cuneyt; Cagnan, Zehra; Harmandar, Ebru

2010-10-01

The almost-real time estimation of ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region was performed in the framework of the Joint Research Activity 3 (JRA-3) component of the EU FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infra-structures for European Seismology, NERIES". This project consists of finding the most likely location of the earthquake source by estimating the fault rupture parameters on the basis of rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. It also includes an estimation of the spatial distribution of selected site-specific ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region-specific ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or physical simulation of ground motion. By using the Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software, the multi-level methodology developed for real time estimation of losses is capable of incorporating regional variability and sources of uncertainty stemming from GMPEs, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder‐identified decision‐critical metrics are examined: a basin‐wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade‐offs emerge between intrabasin and basin‐wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long‐term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision‐making under deep uncertainty. PMID:29706676

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Pain vulnerability and DNA methyltransferase 3a involved in the affective dimension of chronic pain

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Li, Caiyue; Cai, Youqing; Pan, Zhizhong Z

2017-01-01

Chronic pain with comorbid emotional disorders is a prevalent neurological disease in patients under various pathological conditions, yet patients show considerable difference in their vulnerability to developing chronic pain. Understanding the neurobiological basis underlying this pain vulnerability is essential to develop targeted therapies of higher efficiency in pain treatment of precision medicine. However, this pain vulnerability has not been addressed in preclinical pain research in animals to date. In this study, we investigated individual variance in both sensory and affective/emotional dimensions of pain behaviors in response to chronic neuropathic pain condition in a mouse model of chronic pain. We found that mice displayed considerably diverse sensitivities in the chronic pain-induced anxiety- and depression-like behaviors of affective pain. Importantly, the mouse group that was more vulnerable to developing anxiety was also more vulnerable to developing depressive behavior under the chronic pain condition. In contrast, there was relatively much less variance in individual responses in the sensory dimension of pain sensitization. Molecular analysis revealed that those mice vulnerable to developing the emotional disorders showed a significant reduction in the protein level of DNA methyltransferase 3a in the emotion-processing central nucleus of the amygdala. In addition, social stress also revealed significant individual variance in anxiety behavior in mice. These findings suggest that individual pain vulnerability may be inherent mostly in the emotional/affective component of chronic pain and remain consistent in different aspects of negative emotion, in which adaptive changes in the function of DNA methyltransferase 3a for DNA methylation in central amygdala may play an important role. This may open a new avenue of basic research into the neurobiological mechanisms underlying pain vulnerability. PMID:28849714

Trauma in Early Childhood: A Neglected Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Young, Alexandra C.; Kenardy, Justin A.; Cobham, Vanessa E.

2011-01-01

Infants, toddlers and preschoolers are a high risk group for exposure to trauma. Young children are also vulnerable to experiencing adverse outcomes as they are undergoing a rapid developmental period, have limited coping skills and are strongly dependent on their primary caregiver to protect them physically and emotionally. However, although…

Biosignature Preservation Vulnerability Associated with Stress Response Metabolic Redox Mode Switching in a Mars Analogue Coupled Microbial Mat Transiting Near-Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer, R.; Ralat, A.

2016-05-01

Examination of a coupled microbial mat recovered from Death Valley failed to detect rosickyte, both before and after exposure to near-space conditions; associated redox proxies suggest diagenesis caused by rapid adaptive microbial stress response.

The coming revolution in personal care robotics: what does it mean for nurses?

PubMed

Sharts-Hopko, Nancy C

2014-01-01

The business sector provides regular reportage on the development of personal care robots to enable elders and people with disabilities to remain in their homes. Technology in this area is advancing rapidly in Asia, Europe, and North America. To date, the nursing literature has not addressed how nurses will assist these vulnerable populations in the selection and use of robotic technology or how robotics could effect nursing care and patient outcomes. This article provides an overview of development in the area of personal care robotics to address societal needs reflecting demographic trends. Selected relevant issues related to the human-robotic interface including ethical concerns are identified. Implications for nursing education and the delivery of nursing services are identified. Collaboration with engineers in the development of personal care robotic technology has the potential to contribute to the creation of products that optimally address the needs of elders and people with disabilities.

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

2017-12-01

High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

The Death of the West: An alternative view.

PubMed

Coleman, David; Basten, Stuart

2015-01-01

Much has been written about the 'Death of the West', a demise threatened by the low level of reproduction in Western countries. That fate is contrasted unfavourably with the rapid growth of the populations and economies of less developed countries, and the prospect of the numerical and political marginalization of the formerly dominant developed world. We believe that trends in European fertility have been misunderstood and that, with effort and some pain, their consequences for age structure are manageable. Many European societies also enjoy the advantages of demographic and social maturity, the resilience of established consensual democratic institutions, the rule of law, and civil society. The sizes of China and India raise problems of resource sustainability and vulnerability to climate change. China risks falling into a low-fertility trap, reinforced by urban working conditions unfriendly to family formation. Traditional patriarchal and familist cultures may depress fertility rates to unhelpfully low levels in other less developed countries.

Development of a frailty framework among vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Salem, Benissa E; Nyamathi, Adeline; Phillips, Linda R; Mentes, Janet C; Sarkisian, Catherine; Brecht, Mary-Lynn

2014-01-01

Frailty is a public health issue that is experienced by homeless and other vulnerable populations; to date, a frailty framework has not been proposed to guide researchers who study hard-to-reach populations. The Frailty Framework among Vulnerable Populations has been developed from empirical research and consultation with frailty experts in an effort to characterize antecedents, that is, situational, health-related, behavioral, resource, biological, and environmental factors that contribute to physical, psychological, and social frailty domains and impact adverse outcomes. As vulnerable populations continue to age, a greater understanding of frailty will enable the development of nursing interventions.

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Social Vulnerability and Ebola Virus Disease in Rural Liberia.

PubMed

Stanturf, John A; Goodrick, Scott L; Warren, Melvin L; Charnley, Susan; Stegall, Christie M

2015-01-01

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that has stricken thousands of people in the three West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea highlights the lack of adaptive capacity in post-conflict countries. The scarcity of health services in particular renders these populations vulnerable to multiple interacting stressors including food insecurity, climate change, and the cascading effects of disease epidemics such as EVD. However, the spatial distribution of vulnerable rural populations and the individual stressors contributing to their vulnerability are unknown. We developed a Social Vulnerability Classification using census indicators and mapped it at the district scale for Liberia. According to the Classification, we estimate that districts having the highest social vulnerability lie in the north and west of Liberia in Lofa, Bong, Grand Cape Mount, and Bomi Counties. Three of these counties together with the capital Monrovia and surrounding Montserrado and Margibi counties experienced the highest levels of EVD infections in Liberia. Vulnerability has multiple dimensions and a classification developed from multiple variables provides a more holistic view of vulnerability than single indicators such as food insecurity or scarcity of health care facilities. Few rural Liberians are food secure and many cannot reach a medical clinic in <80 minutes. Our results illustrate how census and household survey data, when displayed spatially at a sub-county level, may help highlight the location of the most vulnerable households and populations. Our results can be used to identify vulnerability hotspots where development strategies and allocation of resources to address the underlying causes of vulnerability in Liberia may be warranted. We demonstrate how social vulnerability index approaches can be applied in the context of disease outbreaks, and our methods are relevant elsewhere.

Detection of rupture-prone atherosclerotic plaques by time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Marcu, Laura; Jo, Javier A; Fang, Qiyin; Papaioannou, Thanassis; Reil, Todd; Qiao, Jian-Hua; Baker, J Dennis; Freischlag, Julie A; Fishbein, Michael C

2009-05-01

Plaque with dense inflammatory cells, including macrophages, thin fibrous cap and superficial necrotic/lipid core is thought to be prone-to-rupture. We report a time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TR-LIFS) technique for detection of such markers of plaque vulnerability in human plaques. The autofluorescence of carotid plaques (65 endarterectomy patients) induced by a pulsed laser (337 nm, 0.7 ns) was measured from 831 distinct areas. The emission was resolved spectrally (360-550 nm range) and temporally (0.3 ns resolution) using a prototype fiber-optic TR-LIFS apparatus. Lesions were evaluated microscopically and quantified as to the % of different components (fibrous cap, necrotic core, inflammatory cells, foam cells, mature and degraded collagen, elastic fibers, calcification, and smooth muscle cell of the vessel wall). We determined that the spectral intensities and time-dependent parameters at discrete emission wavelengths (1) allow for discrimination (sensitivity >81%, specificity >94%) of various compositional and pathological features associated with plaque vulnerability including infiltration of macrophages into intima and necrotic/lipid core under a thin fibrous cap, and (2) show a linear correlation with plaque biochemical content: elastin (P<0.008), collagen (P<0.02), inflammatory cells (P<0.003), necrosis (P<0.004). Our results demonstrate the feasibility of TR-LIFS as a method for the identification of markers of plaque vulnerability. Current findings enable future development of TR-LIFS-based clinical devices for rapid investigation of atherosclerotic plaques and detection of those at high-risk.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Social vulnerability to climate change in primary producers: A typology approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adaptation in agro-ecological systems will be important for moderating the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce social vulnerability and plan for climate adaptation. Primary industries have been identified as the most vulnerable i...

Natural and environmental vulnerability analysis through remote sensing and GIS techniques: a case study of Indigirka River basin, Eastern Siberia, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boori, Mukesh S.; Choudhary, Komal; Kupriyanov, Alexander; Sugimoto, Atsuko; Evers, Mariele

2016-10-01

The aim of this research work is to understand natural and environmental vulnerability situation and its cause such as intensity, distribution and socio-economic effect in the Indigirka River basin, Eastern Siberia, Russia. This paper identifies, assess and classify natural and environmental vulnerability using landscape pattern from multidisciplinary approach, based on remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. A model was developed by following thematic layers: land use/cover, vegetation, wetland, geology, geomorphology and soil in ArcGIS 10.2 software. According to numerical results vulnerability classified into five levels: low, sensible, moderate, high and extreme vulnerability by mean of cluster principal. Results are shows that in natural vulnerability maximum area covered by moderate (29.84%) and sensible (38.61%) vulnerability and environmental vulnerability concentrated by moderate (49.30%) vulnerability. So study area has at medial level vulnerability. The results found that the methodology applied was effective enough in the understanding of the current conservation circumstances of the river basin in relation to their environment with the help of remote sensing and GIS. This study is helpful for decision making for eco-environmental recovering and rebuilding as well as predicting the future development.

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2015-01-01

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Defining "Acceptable Risk" for Earthquakes Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, B.

2001-05-01

The greatest and most rapidly growing earthquake risk for mortality is in developing countries. Further, earthquake risk management actions of the last 50 years have reduced the average lethality of earthquakes in earthquake-threatened industrialized countries. (This is separate from the trend of the increasing fiscal cost of earthquakes there.) Despite these clear trends, every new earthquake in developing countries is described in the media as a "wake up" call, announcing the risk these countries face. GeoHazards International (GHI) works at both the community and the policy levels to try to reduce earthquake risk. GHI reduces death and injury by helping vulnerable communities recognize their risk and the methods to manage it, by raising awareness of its risk, building local institutions to manage that risk, and strengthening schools to protect and train the community's future generations. At the policy level, GHI, in collaboration with research partners, is examining whether "acceptance" of these large risks by people in these countries and by international aid and development organizations explains the lack of activity in reducing these risks. The goal of this pilot project - The Global Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) - is to develop and evaluate a means of measuring the risk and the effectiveness of risk mitigation actions in the world's largest, most vulnerable cities: in short, to develop an earthquake risk index. One application of this index is to compare the risk and the risk mitigation effort of "comparable" cities. By this means, Lima, for example, can compare the risk of its citizens dying due to earthquakes with the risk of citizens in Santiago and Guayaquil. The authorities of Delhi and Islamabad can compare the relative risk from earthquakes of their school children. This index can be used to measure the effectiveness of alternate mitigation projects, to set goals for mitigation projects, and to plot progress meeting those goals. The preliminary results suggest that the comparisons of the participating cities are easily understood, and defensible. The evaluation of the sources of El Salvador's risk, made before the January 13th earthquake, pointed to the vulnerability made visible by the earthquake: earthquake-induced landslides, and difficulties with emergency response.

Susceptibility to mountain hazards in Austria - paradigms of vulnerability revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven

2010-05-01

The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for either a qualitative or quantitative assessment of vulnerability. However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these theories, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability are discussed with respect to mountain hazards in Austria. The underlying idea of taking such an integrative viewpoint was the cognition that human action in mountain environments affects the state of vulnerability, and the state of vulnerability in turn shapes the possibilities of human action. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. Hence, the vulnerability of a specific location and within a considered point of time is triggered by the hazardous event and the related physical susceptibility of structures, such as buildings located on a torrent fan. Depending on the specific institutional settings, economic vulnerability of individuals or of the society results, above all with respect to imperfect loss compensation mechanisms in the areas under investigation. While this potential for harm can be addressed as social vulnerability, the concept of institutional vulnerability has been developed with respect to the overall political settings of governmental risk management. As a result, the concept of vulnerability, as being used in natural sciences, can be extended by integration of possible reasons why such physical susceptibility of structures exists, and by integration of compensation mechanisms and coping strategies being developed within social sciences. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. Thereby the overall aim of this work is not to develop another integrative approach for vulnerability assessment, different approaches are rather applied by using a vulnerability-of-place criterion, and key issues of vulnerability are reconsidered aiming at a general illustration of the situation in a densely populated mountain region of Europe.

A socioeconomic profile of vulnerable land to desertification in Italy.

PubMed

Salvati, Luca

2014-01-01

Climate changes, soil vulnerability, loss in biodiversity, and growing human pressure are threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems which are increasingly considered as a desertification hotspot. In this region, land vulnerability to desertification strongly depends on the interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. The present study proposes a multivariate exploratory analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of land vulnerability to desertification and the socioeconomic contexts found in three geographical divisions of Italy (north, center and south) based on statistical indicators. A total of 111 indicators describing different themes (demography, human settlements, labor market and human capital, rural development, income and wealth) were used to discriminate vulnerable from non-vulnerable areas. The resulting socioeconomic profile of vulnerable areas in northern and southern Italy diverged significantly, the importance of demographic and economic indicators being higher in southern Italy than in northern Italy. On the contrary, human settlement indicators were found more important to discriminate vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas in northern Italy, suggesting a role for peri-urbanization in shaping the future vulnerable areas. An in-depth knowledge of the socioeconomic characteristics of vulnerable land may contribute to scenarios' modeling and the development of more effective policies to combat desertification. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and marine fisheries: Least developed countries top global index of vulnerability

PubMed Central

Blasiak, Robert; Spijkers, Jessica; Tokunaga, Kanae; Pittman, Jeremy; Yagi, Nobuyuki; Österblom, Henrik

2017-01-01

Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries’ adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology. PMID:28632781

Summary of vulnerability related technologies based on machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Chen, Zhihao; Jia, Qiong

2018-04-01

As the scale of information system increases by an order of magnitude, the complexity of system software is getting higher. The vulnerability interaction from design, development and deployment to implementation stages greatly increases the risk of the entire information system being attacked successfully. Considering the limitations and lags of the existing mainstream security vulnerability detection techniques, this paper summarizes the development and current status of related technologies based on the machine learning methods applied to deal with massive and irregular data, and handling security vulnerabilities.

Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

PubMed

Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

2018-05-01

The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development.

PubMed

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-08-12

Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group's involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development

PubMed Central

Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

2015-01-01

Background: Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Methods: Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. Results: The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group’s involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Conclusion: Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include representatives of vulnerable communities which could help to build a dialogue and present the problem from multiple perspectives. PMID:26673176

Improving quality and diffusing best practices: the case of schizophrenia.

PubMed Central

Donohue, Julie M.; Domino, Marisa E.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.

2009-01-01

The slow diffusion of empirically supported treatments and the rapid diffusion of treatments lacking empirical support play a significant role in the quality gap in the care of people with severe mental illnesses. Further, the rapid diffusion of treatments of low cost-effectiveness limits the system's ability to provide the full gamut of high-value treatments available to treat this vulnerable population. Using the case of schizophrenia as an illustrative case study, we review the context in which these paradoxical patterns of diffusion have occurred and propose policy solutions. PMID:19414878

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To analyze the biophysical vulnerability of Taiwan, hazards on eight maps from Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) are analyzed. Statistical data from the NCDR on social vulnerability are also adopted. Finally, a GIS overlaying method was used to perform the synthesized vulnerability analysis of biophysical and social vulnerability for municipalities and counties in Taiwan.

Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State.

PubMed

Nayak, S G; Shrestha, S; Kinney, P L; Ross, Z; Sheridan, S C; Pantea, C I; Hsu, W H; Muscatiello, N; Hwang, S A

2017-12-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS. Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas. Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories. Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI. The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could benefit from targeted interventions. The HVI will be used as a planning tool to help allocate appropriate adaptation measures like cooling centers and issue heat alerts to mitigate effects of heat in vulnerable areas. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Optical image encryption using multilevel Arnold transform and noninterferometric imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wen; Chen, Xudong

2011-11-01

Information security has attracted much current attention due to the rapid development of modern technologies, such as computer and internet. We propose a novel method for optical image encryption using multilevel Arnold transform and rotatable-phase-mask noninterferometric imaging. An optical image encryption scheme is developed in the gyrator transform domain, and one phase-only mask (i.e., phase grating) is rotated and updated during image encryption. For the decryption, an iterative retrieval algorithm is proposed to extract high-quality plaintexts. Conventional encoding methods (such as digital holography) have been proven vulnerably to the attacks, and the proposed optical encoding scheme can effectively eliminate security deficiency and significantly enhance cryptosystem security. The proposed strategy based on the rotatable phase-only mask can provide a new alternative for data/image encryption in the noninterferometric imaging.

The young athlete: challenges of growth, development, and society.

PubMed

Bergeron, Michael F

2010-01-01

Youth sports provide numerous health-enhancing and other important benefits to participating children and adolescents. However, the motivations and goals of young athletes often conflict with those of adult stakeholders, and they are redirected. The youth sports industry has become exclusionary, as the professional model of development increasingly is prevalent and accepted. Youth who follow this model often cannot keep up with the unrealistic expectations and excessive demands. Too much play, training, travel, and pressure frequently lead to a variety of physical and psychological problems, particularly concurrent with the vulnerability of a young athlete going through pre- or early adolescence and the rapid growth phase. The need for alternative models, emphasizing fun and fundamentals, is becoming increasingly clear and urgent. With appropriate changes, youth sports once again can be an effective entry point for a lifetime of healthy sports participation and enjoyment.

[Socioeconomic vulnerability and obesity in Chilean schoolchildren attending first grade: comparison between 2009 and 2013].

PubMed

Herrera, Juan Carlos; Lira, Mariana; Kain, Juliana

2017-12-01

Although obesity is related to socioeconomic level, studies are inconclusive. To determine obesity risk according to socioeconomic vulnerability among Chilean children (1st grade) in 2009 and 2013 and assess its change during that period, by sex and geographical area. Cross-sectional study (N = 175,462 in 2009) and (N = 189,055 in 2013) which included: weight, height, rural / urban, gender and vulnerability obtained from JUNAEB's survey. BMI Z, % obesity and 3 categories of vulnerability (very vulnerable, moderate, non-vulnerable) were determined. For the descriptive analyses, we used t tests and for predictor variables (2 categories of vulnerability) and outcome (obesity) by sex and area, we used %2. Logistic regression models determined OR to develop obesity by. % obesity was 19.6% and 24.1% in 2009 and 2013, higher in boys. In urban and rural areas respectively, OR to develop obesity were: 0.85 (0.82-0.88) and 0.70 (0.64-0.75) in the most vulnerable students and 0.94 (0.91-0.97) and 0.81 (0.74-0.88) in those with moderate vulnerability in 2009 and 0.96 (0.93-0.98) and 0.89 (0.82-0.96) in the most vulnerable students and 0.99 (0.96-1.02) and 0.94 (0.86-1.02) in students with moderate vulnerability in 2013. The highest increase in obesity was observed among the most vulnerable group from rural areas (16, 6 to 24.3%). vulnerability. The non-vulnerable group had the highest % obesity. Although the most vulnerable students in rural areas had the lowest obesity risk in both years, the highest increase in obesity during the period, occurred in that group.

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

Software-Defined Radio Global System for Mobile Communications Transmitter Development for Heterogeneous Network Vulnerability Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

AbdelWahab, “ 2G / 3G Inter-RAT Handover Performance Analysis,” Second European Conference on Antennas and Propagation, pp. 1, 8, 11–16, Nov. 2007. [19] J...RADIO GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING by Carson C. McAbee... MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSMITTER DEVELOPMENT FOR HETEROGENEOUS NETWORK VULNERABILITY TESTING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Carson C. McAbee

Urban Development from the Perspective of Geodivesity in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Y.; Lee, D. K.; Han Kyul, H.

2015-12-01

In regard to ensuring a sustainable Earth, geodiversity (which is the variety of non-living nature) has been recognized as being equivalent to biodiversity in terms of importance. Geodiversity, as a platform, provides diverse habitats; however when a city is developed, threatened and vulnerable species are seen as important components of conservation but geodiversity is not. This study analyzes the components of geodiversity in cities that developed rapidly, and identifies which characteristics of geodiversity were related to this development. We estimated the components of geodiversity through the use of land cover maps and digital elevation maps (DEMs) in South Korean cities that developed rapidly between the 1980s and early-2010s, such as Yong-in and Namyangju. The relationships between land use changes and geodiversity components were analyzed and a factor analysis for land use changes was conducted using geodiversity components. Results show that even though adjacent rivers and streams, low elevation, and flat surfaces have high geodiversity, these areas were mainly converted into built-up areas and agricultural areas. As such, it can be stated that urban development in these cities has lowered geodiversity. Other geodiversity components related to urban development, such as slope, upslope contributing areas, streams, and lithology, were also identified. To conclude, this study showed how geodiversity components related to urban development has been affected by this growth and how they are intimately connected to each other. Identifying geodiversity in future development sites could help to estimate the most sensitive areas regarding the planned development; therefore, we need to view urban development from a geodiversity perspective.

Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

2018-02-01

To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

Geologic framework and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Edwards Aquifer outcrop, Comal County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Small, T.A.; Hanson, J.A.

1994-01-01

In Comal County, the Edwards aquifer is probably most vulnerable to surface contamination in the rapidly urbanizing areas on the Edwards aquifer outcrop. Possible contamination can result from spills, leakage of hazardous materials, or runoff onto the intensely faulted and fractured, karstic limestone outcrops characteristic of the recharge zone.

Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

Treesearch

Anthony P. Walker; Kelsey R. Carter; Lianhong Gu; Paul J. Hanson; Avni Malhotra; Richard J. Norby; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Stan D. Wullschleger; David J. Weston

2017-01-01

Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum...

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

Treesearch

W.F. Laurance; D.C. Useche; J. Rendeiro; and others NO-VALUE; Ariel Lugo

2012-01-01

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon1–3. With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment...

Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire

Treesearch

Blake R. Hossack; Winsor H. Lowe; Paul Stephen Corn

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of...

An Analysis of Rapid Technology Transfer Solutions and Best Practices for Use by the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

discovered that the NSA is concerned about speaker recognition being vulnerable to man- in-the-middle ( MITM ) attacks. The professional could tailor an MITM ...with the results of the test against the MITM threat. The Collective Acquisition framework comprises powerful search techniques found in the CRC

Deepwater Horizon crude oil impacts the developing hearts of large predatory pelagic fish

PubMed Central

Incardona, John P.; Gardner, Luke D.; Linbo, Tiffany L.; Brown, Tanya L.; Esbaugh, Andrew J.; Mager, Edward M.; Stieglitz, John D.; French, Barbara L.; Labenia, Jana S.; Laetz, Cathy A.; Tagal, Mark; Sloan, Catherine A.; Elizur, Abigail; Benetti, Daniel D.; Grosell, Martin; Block, Barbara A.; Scholz, Nathaniel L.

2014-01-01

The Deepwater Horizon disaster released more than 636 million L of crude oil into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The spill oiled upper surface water spawning habitats for many commercially and ecologically important pelagic fish species. Consequently, the developing spawn (embryos and larvae) of tunas, swordfish, and other large predators were potentially exposed to crude oil-derived polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Fish embryos are generally very sensitive to PAH-induced cardiotoxicity, and adverse changes in heart physiology and morphology can cause both acute and delayed mortality. Cardiac function is particularly important for fast-swimming pelagic predators with high aerobic demand. Offspring for these species develop rapidly at relatively high temperatures, and their vulnerability to crude oil toxicity is unknown. We assessed the impacts of field-collected Deepwater Horizon (MC252) oil samples on embryos of three pelagic fish: bluefin tuna, yellowfin tuna, and an amberjack. We show that environmentally realistic exposures (1–15 µg/L total PAH) cause specific dose-dependent defects in cardiac function in all three species, with circulatory disruption culminating in pericardial edema and other secondary malformations. Each species displayed an irregular atrial arrhythmia following oil exposure, indicating a highly conserved response to oil toxicity. A considerable portion of Gulf water samples collected during the spill had PAH concentrations exceeding toxicity thresholds observed here, indicating the potential for losses of pelagic fish larvae. Vulnerability assessments in other ocean habitats, including the Arctic, should focus on the developing heart of resident fish species as an exceptionally sensitive and consistent indicator of crude oil impacts. PMID:24706825

Modeling barrier island response to sea-level rise in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Laura J.; List, Jeffrey H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Stolper, David

2007-01-01

An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.

Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

PubMed

Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts.

PubMed

Licuanan, Wilfredo Y; Samson, Maricar S; Mamauag, Samuel S; David, Laura T; Borja-Del Rosario, Roselle; Quibilan, Miledel Christine C; Siringan, Fernando P; Sta Maria, Ma Yvainne Y; España, Norievill B; Villanoy, Cesar L; Geronimo, Rollan C; Cabrera, Olivia C; Martinez, Renmar Jun S; Aliño, Porfirio M

2015-12-01

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a "town-hall" meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

PubMed

Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Rapid development of microsatellite markers with 454 pyrosequencing in a vulnerable fish, the mottled skate, Raja pulchra.

PubMed

Kang, Jung-Ha; Park, Jung-Youn; Jo, Hyun-Su

2012-01-01

The mottled skate, Raja pulchra, is an economically valuable fish. However, due to a severe population decline, it is listed as a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. To analyze its genetic structure and diversity, microsatellite markers were developed using 454 pyrosequencing. A total of 17,033 reads containing dinucleotide microsatellite repeat units (mean, 487 base pairs) were identified from 453,549 reads. Among 32 loci containing more than nine repeat units, 20 primer sets (62%) produced strong PCR products, of which 14 were polymorphic. In an analysis of 60 individuals from two R. pulchra populations, the number of alleles per locus ranged from 1-10, and the mean allelic richness was 4.7. No linkage disequilibrium was found between any pair of loci, indicating that the markers were independent. The Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test showed significant deviation in two of the 28 single-loci after sequential Bonferroni's correction. Using 11 primer sets, cross-species amplification was demonstrated in nine related species from four families within two classes. Among the 11 loci amplified from three other Rajidae family species; three loci were polymorphic. A monomorphic locus was amplified in all three Rajidae family species and the Dasyatidae family. Two Rajidae polymorphic loci amplified monomorphic target DNAs in four species belonging to the Carcharhiniformes class, and another was polymorphic in two Carcharhiniformes species.

Rapid Development of Microsatellite Markers with 454 Pyrosequencing in a Vulnerable Fish, the Mottled Skate, Raja pulchra

PubMed Central

Kang, Jung-Ha; Park, Jung-Youn; Jo, Hyun-Su

2012-01-01

The mottled skate, Raja pulchra, is an economically valuable fish. However, due to a severe population decline, it is listed as a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. To analyze its genetic structure and diversity, microsatellite markers were developed using 454 pyrosequencing. A total of 17,033 reads containing dinucleotide microsatellite repeat units (mean, 487 base pairs) were identified from 453,549 reads. Among 32 loci containing more than nine repeat units, 20 primer sets (62%) produced strong PCR products, of which 14 were polymorphic. In an analysis of 60 individuals from two R. pulchra populations, the number of alleles per locus ranged from 1–10, and the mean allelic richness was 4.7. No linkage disequilibrium was found between any pair of loci, indicating that the markers were independent. The Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium test showed significant deviation in two of the 28 single-loci after sequential Bonferroni’s correction. Using 11 primer sets, cross-species amplification was demonstrated in nine related species from four families within two classes. Among the 11 loci amplified from three other Rajidae family species; three loci were polymorphic. A monomorphic locus was amplified in all three Rajidae family species and the Dasyatidae family. Two Rajidae polymorphic loci amplified monomorphic target DNAs in four species belonging to the Carcharhiniformes class, and another was polymorphic in two Carcharhiniformes species. PMID:22837688

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach.

PubMed

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-04-10

Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards.

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach

PubMed Central

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-01

Introduction: Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. Methods: The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. Results: According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. Conclusions: The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Key words: Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards PMID:28480124

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

PubMed

Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

2008-09-01

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

Mushrooming vulnerability to EMP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerner, E. J.

1984-08-01

The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) generated by a single thermonuclear bomb detonated above the continental U.S. could set up electrical fields of 50 kV/m over nearly all of North America. Since the progressively microminiaturized integrated circuits of current military and civilian electronics become more vulnerable with decreasing circuit element size, even shield-protected chips can now be destroyed by the substantially shield-dampened EMP pulses. It is noted as a source of special concern that, as nuclear weapons have evolved, the EMP characteristically generated by them has shifted to increasingly shorter wavelengths, requiring significant redesign of EMP shields devised a decade or more ago. The surge arresters currently employed may not react sufficiently rapidly for existing weapons.

U.S. Government and Partners: Working Together on a Comprehensive, Coordinated and Effective Response to Highly Vulnerable Children. Third Annual Report to Congress on Public Law 109-95, the Assistance for Orphans and Other Vulnerable Children in Developing Countries Act of 2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Agency for International Development, 2009

2009-01-01

Public Law 109-95, the Assistance for Orphans and Other Vulnerable Children in Developing Countries Act of 2005 (hereinafter, referred to as PL 109-95), was signed into law four years ago to respond to the global orphans and vulnerable children crisis. It calls for the U.S. Government (USG) response to the crisis to be comprehensive, coordinated…

The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Lei, Jun; Jin, Fengjun

2013-12-01

Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco-environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constraining factors.

Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2009-07-01

Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

The etemic model of Gypsy Roma Traveller community vulnerability: is it time to rethink our understanding of vulnerability?

PubMed

Heaslip, Vanessa; Hean, Sarah; Parker, Jonathan

2016-08-09

To present a new etemic model of vulnerability. Despite vulnerability being identified as a core consequence of health and health experiences, there has been little research exploring the meaning of vulnerability as a concept. Yet, being vulnerable is known to have dire physical/mental health consequences. It is therefore a fundamental issue for nurses to address. To date, the meaning of the term vulnerability has been influenced by the work of Spiers (Journal of Advanced Nursing, 31, 2000, 715, The Essential Concepts of Nursing: Building Blocks for Practice, 2005, Elsevier, London). Spiers identified two aspects of vulnerability: the etic (external judgment of another persons' vulnerability) and the emic (internal lived experience of vulnerability). This approach has led to a plethora of research which has explored the etic (external judgment) of vulnerability and rendered the internal lived (or emic) experience invisible. Consequences of this, for marginalised communities such as Gypsy Roma Travellers include a lack of culturally sensitive services compounding health inequalities. Position paper. Drawing upon a qualitative phenomenological research study exploring the lived experience of vulnerability from a Gypsy Roma Travelling community (published previously), this paper presents a new model of vulnerability. This etemic model of vulnerability values both external and internal dimensions of vulnerability and argues for a fusion of these two opposing perspectives. If nurses and other health- and social care professionals wish to develop practice that is successful in engaging with Gypsy Roma Travellers, then there is a need to both understand and respect their community. This can be achieved through an etemic approach to understanding their vulnerability achieved by eliciting lived experience alongside the appreciation of epidemiological studies. If nurses and health practitioners used this etemic approach to practice then it would enable both the development and delivery of culturally sensitive services facilitating health access to this community. Only then, will their poor health status be successfully addressed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vulnerable Children, Communities and Schools: Lessons from Three HIV/AIDS Affected Areas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kendall, Nancy; O'Gara, Chloe

2007-01-01

The growing number of children made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS threatens the achievement of Education for All (EFA) and Millennium Development goals. Policy recommendations assign schools key roles in meeting the needs of vulnerable children, but there is a dearth of evidence about how vulnerable children and schools interact in AIDS affected…

Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

2018-02-01

Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

Safe communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth.

PubMed

Wang, Shu-Mei; Dalal, Koustuv

2013-02-01

Due to its rapid economic development, China is facing a huge health, social, and economic burden resulting from injuries. The study's objective was to examine Safe Communities in China as a strategy for injury prevention and safety promotion programmes in the era of rapid economic growth. Literature searches in English and Chinese, which included grey literature, were performed on the Chinese Journal Full-text Search System and Medline, using the words "Safe Community", "injury", "economics", and "prevention". The results showed that the existing 35 recognized members of the International Safe Community Network have not placed due emphasis on suicide prevention, which is one of the leading problems in both rural and urban China. A few groups, such as children, the elderly, cyclists, and pedestrians, have received due emphasis, while other vulnerable groups, such as migrant workers, motorcyclists, students, players, and farmers have not received the necessary attention from the Safe Community perspective. As the evidence describes, Safe Communities in China can be a very effective strategy for injury prevention, but four aspects need to be strengthened in the future: (1) establish and strengthen the policy and regulations in terms of injury prevention at the national level; (2) create a system to involve professional organizations and personnel in projects; (3) consider the economic development status of different parts of China; and (4) intentional injury prevention should receive greater attention.

Mangrove forest against dyke-break-induced tsunami on rapidly subsiding coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Hiroshi; Mikami, Takahito; Fujii, Daisuke; Esteban, Miguel; Kurobe, Shota

2016-07-01

Thin coastal dykes typically found in developing countries may suddenly collapse due to rapid land subsidence, material ageing, sea-level rise, high wave attack, earthquakes, landslides, or a collision with vessels. Such a failure could trigger dam-break tsunami-type flooding, or "dyke-break-induced tsunami", a possibility which has so far been overlooked in the field of coastal disaster science and management. To analyse the potential consequences of one such flooding event caused by a dyke failure, a hydrodynamic model was constructed based on the authors' field surveys of a vulnerable coastal location in Jakarta, Indonesia. In a 2 m land subsidence scenario - which is expected to take place in the study area after only about 10-20 years - the model results show that the floodwaters rapidly rise to a height of nearly 3 m, resembling the flooding pattern of earthquake-induced tsunamis. The depth-velocity product criterion suggests that many of the narrow pedestrian paths behind the dyke could experience strong flows, which are far greater than the safe limits that would allow pedestrian evacuation. A couple of alternative scenarios were also considered to investigate how such flood impacts could be mitigated by creating a mangrove belt in front of the dyke as an additional safety measure. The dyke-break-induced tsunamis, which in many areas are far more likely than regular earthquake tsunamis, cannot be overlooked and thus should be considered in disaster management and urban planning along the coasts of many developing countries.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

De novo assembly and characterization of the leaf, bud, and fruit transcriptome from the vulnerable tree Juglans mandshurica for the development of 20 new microsatellite markers using Illumina sequencing.

PubMed

Hu, Zhuang; Zhang, Tian; Gao, Xiao-Xiao; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Qiang; Zhou, Hui-Juan; Zhao, Gui-Fang; Wang, Ma-Li; Woeste, Keith E; Zhao, Peng

2016-04-01

Manchurian walnut (Juglans mandshurica Maxim.) is a vulnerable, temperate deciduous tree valued for its wood and nut, but transcriptomic and genomic data for the species are very limited. Next generation sequencing (NGS) has made it possible to develop molecular markers for this species rapidly and efficiently. Our goal is to use transcriptome information from RNA-Seq to understand development in J. mandshurica and develop polymorphic simple sequence repeats (SSRs, microsatellites) to understand the species' population genetics. In this study, more than 47.7 million clean reads were generated using Illumina sequencing technology. De novo assembly yielded 99,869 unigenes with an average length of 747 bp. Based on sequence similarity search with known proteins, a total of 39,708 (42.32 %) genes were identified. Searching against the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes Pathway database (KEGG) identified 15,903 (16.9 %) unigenes. Further, we identified and characterized 63 new transcriptome-derived microsatellite markers. By testing the markers on 4 to 14 individuals from four populations, we found that 20 were polymorphic and easily amplified. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 2 to 8. The observed and expected heterozygosity per locus ranged from 0.209 to 0.813 and 0.335 to 0.842, respectively. These twenty microsatellite markers will be useful for studies of population genetics, diversity, and genetic structure, and they will undoubtedly benefit future breeding studies of this walnut species. Moreover, the information uncovered in this research will also serve as a useful genetic resource for understanding the transcriptome and development of J. mandshurica and other Juglans species.

The food industry and conflicts of interest in nutrition research: A Latin American perspective.

PubMed

Barnoya, Joaquin; Nestle, Marion

2015-10-29

Conflicts of interest arise when corporations marketing harmful products establish financial relationships with research institutions, researchers, or public health organizations. As obesity becomes a worldwide epidemic, such relationships threaten to jeopardize the integrity of scientific research. Latin America, a region undergoing rapid development, is particularly vulnerable to such conflicts. Here, we provide examples of how food and beverage companies are funding nutrition-focused research and institutions in Latin America, putting their credibility at risk. Public health organizations and institutions should take measures to identify, manage, and limit (or eliminate) conflicts of interest caused by partnerships with food companies making and marketing unhealthful products.Journal of Public Health Policy advance online publication, 29 October 2015; doi:10.1057/jphp.2015.37.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Oil Spills and Marine Mammals in British Columbia, Canada: Development and Application of a Risk-Based Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Jarvela Rosenberger, Adrianne L; MacDuffee, Misty; Rosenberger, Andrew G J; Ross, Peter S

2017-07-01

Marine mammals are inherently vulnerable to oil spills. We developed a conceptual framework to evaluate the impacts of potential oil exposure on marine mammals and applied it to 21 species inhabiting coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada. Oil spill vulnerability was determined by examining both the likelihood of species-specific (individual) oil exposure and the consequent likelihood of population-level effects. Oil exposure pathways, ecology, and physiological characteristics were first used to assign species-specific vulnerability rankings. Baleen whales were found to be highly vulnerable due to blowhole breathing, surface filter feeding, and invertebrate prey. Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) were ranked as highly vulnerable due to their time spent at the ocean surface, dense pelage, and benthic feeding techniques. Species-specific vulnerabilities were considered to estimate the likelihood of population-level effects occurring after oil exposure. Killer whale (Orcinus orca) populations were deemed at highest risk due to small population sizes, complex social structure, long lives, slow reproductive turnover, and dietary specialization. Finally, we related the species-specific and population-level vulnerabilities. In BC, vulnerability was deemed highest for Northern and Southern Resident killer whales and sea otters, followed by Bigg's killer whales and Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus). Our findings challenge the typical "indicator species" approach routinely used and underscore the need to examine marine mammals at a species and population level for risk-based oil spill predictions. This conceptual framework can be combined with spill probabilities and volumes to develop more robust risk assessments and may be applied elsewhere to identify vulnerability themes for marine mammals.

Identifying Frailty Among Vulnerable Populations

PubMed Central

Salem, Benissa E.; Nyamathi, Adeline; Phillips, Linda R.; Mentes, Janet; Sarkisian, Catherine; Brecht, Lynn

2014-01-01

Frailty is a significant public health issue which is experienced by homeless and other vulnerable adults; to date, a frailty framework has not been proposed to guide researchers who study this hard-to-reach population. The Frailty Framework among Homeless and other Vulnerable Populations (FFHVP) has been developed from empirical research and consultation with frailty experts in an effort to characterize antecedents, i.e. situational, health-related, behavioral, resource, biological, and environmental factors which contribute to physical, psychological and social frailty domains and impact adverse outcomes. As vulnerable populations continue to age, a greater understanding of frailty will enable the development of nursing interventions. PMID:24469090

Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

PubMed Central

Cutter, Susan L.; Finch, Christina

2008-01-01

During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades. PMID:18268336

Detection of Rupture-Prone Atherosclerotic Plaques by Time-Resolved Laser Induced Fluorescence Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Marcu, Laura; Jo, Javier A.; Fang, Qiyin; Papaioannou, Thanassis; Reil, Todd; Qiao, Jian-Hua; Baker, J. Dennis; Freischlag, Julie A.; Fishbein, Michael C.

2009-01-01

Objective Plaque with dense inflammatory cells, including macrophages, thin fibrous cap and superficial necrotic/lipid core is thought to be prone-to-rupture. We report a time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TR-LIFS) technique for detection of such markers of plaque vulnerability in human plaques. Methods The autofluorescence of carotid plaques (65 endarterectomy patients) induced by a pulsed laser (337 nm, 0.7 ns) was measured from 831 distinct areas. The emission was resolved spectrally- (360–550 nm range) and temporally- (0.3 ns resolution) using a prototype fiber-optic TR-LIFS apparatus. Lesions were evaluated microscopically and quantified as to the % of different components (fibrous cap, necrotic core, inflammatory cells, foam cells, mature and degraded collagen, elastic fibers, calcification, and smooth muscle cell of the vessel wall). Results We determined that the spectral intensities and time-dependent parameters at discrete emission wavelengths 1) allow for discrimination (sensitivity >81%, specificity >94%) of various compositional and pathological features associated with plaque vulnerability including infiltration of macrophages into intima and necrotic/lipid core under a thin fibrous cap, and 2) show a linear correlation with plaque biochemical content: elastin (P<0.008), collagen (P<0.02), inflammatory cells (P<0.003), necrosis (P<0.004). Conclusion Our results demonstrate the feasibility of TR-LIFS as a method for the identification of markers of plaque vulnerability. Current findings enable future development of TR-LIFS based clinical devices for rapid investigation of atherosclerotic plaques and detection of those at high-risk. PMID:18926540

Assessing the Climate Resilience of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, J. W.; Pant, R.; Koks, E.; Thacker, S.; Russell, T.

2017-12-01

Whilst there is an urgent need for infrastructure investment in developing countries, there is a risk that poorly planned and built infrastructure will introduce new vulnerabilities. As climate change increases the magnitudes and frequency of natural hazard events, incidence of disruptive infrastructure failures are likely to become more frequent. Therefore, it is important that infrastructure planning and investment is underpinned by climate risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning. Tanzania's rapid economic growth is placing considerable strain on the country's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, shipping and aviation); especially at the port of Dar es Salaam and its linking transport corridors. A growing number of natural hazard events, in particular flooding, are impacting the reliability of this already over-used network. Here we report on new methodology to analyse vulnerabilities and risks due to failures of key locations in the intermodal transport network of Tanzania, including strategic connectivity to neighboring countries. To perform the national-scale risk analysis we will utilize a system-of-systems methodology. The main components of this general risk assessment, when applied to transportation systems, include: (1) Assembling data on: spatially coherent extreme hazards and intermodal transportation networks; (2) Intersecting hazards with transport network models to initiate failure conditions that trigger failure propagation across interdependent networks; (3) Quantifying failure outcomes in terms of social impacts (customers/passengers disrupted) and/or macroeconomic consequences (across multiple sectors); and (4) Simulating, testing and collecting multiple failure scenarios to perform an exhaustive risk assessment in terms of probabilities and consequences. The methodology is being used to pinpoint vulnerability and reduce climate risks to transport infrastructure investments.

American Sammys and French Poilus in the Great War: sport, masculinities and vulnerability.

PubMed

Terret, Thierry

2011-01-01

The violence and duration of fighting throughout the Great War created an intense feeling of vulnerability among the men engaged in battle, which challenged their perception of manliness. When the Americans joined the war in 1917, the balance between the two opposing armies was modified and the psychological crises of French soldiers brought to an end. The confidence shown by the American soldiers and their first successes on the battlefield changed the way the French Poilus perceived their new allies. From scepticism to admiration, Frenchmen's feelings extended beyond the fighting. Indeed, by living with American soldiers in the trenches and camps behind the front, French soldiers discovered a new culture where games and sport played a major role and contributed to building manliness. The Foyers Franco-Americains du Soldat (Franco-American hostels for soldiers) provided an ideal place for the cultural transfer of a model of masculinity from Sammys to Poilus. The foyers were managed by the American YMCA and eventually reached the number of 1,500 in France during the war. These hostels afforded soldiers numerous opportunities to develop cultural and sports practices, by bringing together Americans and Frenchmen. Mainly based on the archives of the American Expeditionary Forces, the YMCA and the French Army, the paper argues that the Foyers du Soldat brought to light a new model of masculinity based on sport, which challenged the Frenchmen's vision. It aims to show the rapid transformation of masculine identity within a context of extreme vulnerability and confirms the changes in representations of men in French society at this time.

Technology and the hydra of terrorism?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

LePoire, D. J.; Glenn, J. C.; Environmental Assessment

2007-02-01

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Somemore » of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities. Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.« less

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Earthquake vulnerability assessment of buildings of ward no. 8 of Haldwani-Kathgodam Municipal Corporation, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Kritika; Pande, Ravindra K.

2017-07-01

"Earthquake does not kill people; it is the building which kills people". Earthquake is a sudden event below the surface of the earth which results in vertical and horizontal waves that causes destruction. The main aim of this research is to bring into light the unplanned and non-engineered construction practices growing in the Urban areas. Lack of space and continuous migration from hills has resulted in Multistorey construction. The present study is based on primary data collection through Rapid Visual Screening for the assessment of vulnerability of buildings. "Haldwani-Kathgodam being a new Municipal Corporation located in the foot hills of Himalayas is facing same problem. The seismic zonation brings this area into zone 4 of damage risk. Therefore an assessment to estimate the risk of the built up environment is important. This paper presents a systematic and useful way of assessing physical vulnerability of buildings. The present paper will show how the growing pressure on urban area tends to make the built up environment vulnerable towards seismic activities. The challenge today is to make our living environment safe for living. The day by day growing population pressure on urban area as a migration trend in developing countries is leading to high rise building, no planning and reckless construction. For the sake of saving some money people usually do not take the approval from structural engineer. This unplanned and haphazard construction proves non-resistant towards earthquake and brings lives and properties to death and a stand still. The total no. of household in the current study area is 543 whereas the total population is 2497 (2011). The recent formation of Himalayas makes the area more sensitive towards seismic event. The closeness to the Main Boundary thrust brings it to zone 4 in the Seismic Zonation of India i.e., High Damage Risk Zone

Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally this method has vast potential to replicate for climate smart planning beyond the study region as it clearly ensures barrier free climate-communication process for decision making while looking for long term feasible outcomes of remodeled surface through the most affordable and innovative tools.

What Is Special about Special Needs of Refugee Children?: Guidelines for Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strekalova, Ekaterina; Hoot, James L.

2008-01-01

The past decade has seen a rapid growth of increasingly diverse immigrant populations in the United States--the most vulnerable among these are refugee children. Most immigrants enter a host country with a goal of improving their opportunities in life. They arrive after years of preparation, such as locating housing, securing jobs and support from…

Older Adults with Intellectual Disabilities: Targets for Increasing Victimization, a Call for a Preemptive Screening Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strasser, Sheryl; O'Quin, Karen; Price, Thomas; Leyda, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

The aging population is a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Isolation, limited autonomy, and declining physical and mental health render many older adults vulnerable to abuse, neglect, and exploitation. As the population grows, so does the need for Adult Protective Services (APS). This article highlights an ultrasensitive subgroup…

Urban School Superintendents: Characteristics, Tenure, and Salary. Seventh Survey and Report. Urban Indicator, Fall 2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of the Great City Schools, 2010

2010-01-01

Urban school superintendents hold one of the most important and challenging jobs in America's education system. In this era of accountability and standards, superintendents are charged with making visible and rapid improvements in the academic achievement of the nation's most vulnerable children. They must break down barriers to reform and build…

Ecodevelopmental x Intrapersonal Risk: Substance Use and Sexual Behavior in Hispanic Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prado, Guillermo J.; Schwartz, Seth J.; Maldonado-Molina, Mildred; Shi Huang,; Pantin, Hilda M.; Lopez, Barbara; Szapocznik, Jose

2009-01-01

Hispanic adolescents are a rapidly growing population and are highly vulnerable to substance abuse and HIV infection. Many interventions implemented thus far have been "one size fits all" models that deliver the same dosage and sequence of modules to all participants. To more effectively prevent substance use and HIV in Hispanic adolescents,…

Vulnerability of Quick Disconnect Connectors to Carbon Fibers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyers, J. A.

1979-01-01

Unprotected quick disconnect electrical connectors were exposed to fibers of 3mm, 7mm, and 12mm lengths. The average exposure to failure was determined. Results indicate that when the fiber length divided by the airgap is less than one, multiple fibers are required to bridge the gap, and the exposure time to failure rises rapidly.

Scanning the conservation horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment

Treesearch

Patty Glick; Bruce A. Stein; Naomi A. Edelson

2011-01-01

Rapid climate change is the defining conservation issue of our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly apparent, from drowned coastal marshes and drying prairie potholes to melting glaciers. These climate-driven changes will profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish and wildlife and the habitats on which they depend. Indeed, preparing for and...

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

Policies on Protecting Vulnerable People During Disasters in Iran: A Document Analysis

PubMed Central

Abbasi Dolatabadi, Zahra; Seyedin, Hesam; Aryankhesal, Aidin

2016-01-01

Context Developing official protection policies for disasters is a main strategy in protecting vulnerable people. The aim of this study was to analyze official documents concerning policies on protecting vulnerable people during disasters. Evidence Acquisition This study was conducted by the qualitative document analysis method. Documents were gathered by searching websites and referring to the organizations involved in disaster management. The documents were assessed by a researcher-made data collection form. A directed content analysis approach was used to analyze the retrieved documents regarding the protection policies and legislation for vulnerable people. Results A total of 22 documents were included in the final analysis. Most of the documents referred to women, children, elderly people, poor, and villagers as vulnerable people. Moreover, the documents did not provide information regarding official measures for protecting vulnerable people during different phases of disaster management. Conclusions A clear and comprehensive definition of “vulnerable people” and formulation of official policies to protect them is needs to be formulated. Given the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, policy makers need to develop effective context-based policies to protect vulnerable people during disasters. PMID:27921019

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

Informed consent in implantable BCI research: identification of research risks and recommendations for development of best practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Eran; Ojemann, Jeffrey

2016-08-01

Objective. Implantable brain-computer interface (BCI) research promises improvements in human health and enhancements in quality of life. Informed consent of subjects is a central tenet of this research. Rapid advances in neuroscience, and the intimate connection between functioning of the brain and conceptions of the self, make informed consent particularly challenging in BCI research. Identification of safety and research-related risks associated with BCI devices is an important step in ensuring meaningful informed consent. Approach. This paper highlights a number of BCI research risks, including safety concerns, cognitive and communicative impairments, inappropriate subject expectations, group vulnerabilities, privacy and security, and disruptions of identity. Main results. Based on identified BCI research risks, best practices are needed for understanding and incorporating BCI-related risks into informed consent protocols. Significance. Development of best practices should be guided by processes that are: multidisciplinary, systematic and transparent, iterative, relational and exploratory.

Impact of public health emergencies on modern disaster taxonomy, planning, and response.

PubMed

Burkle, Frederick M; Greenough, P Gregg

2008-10-01

Current disaster taxonomy describes diversity, distinguishing characteristics, and common relations in disaster event classifications. The impact of compromised public health infrastructure and systems on health consequences defines and greatly influences the manner in which disasters are observed, planned for, and managed, especially those that are geographically widespread, population dense, and prolonged. What may first result in direct injuries and death may rapidly change to excess indirect illness and subsequent death as essential public health resources are destroyed, deteriorate, or are systematically denied to vulnerable populations. Public health and public health infrastructure and systems in developed and developing countries must be seen as strategic and security issues that deserve international public health resource monitoring attention from disaster managers, urban planners, the global humanitarian community, World Health Organization authorities, and participating parties to war and conflict. We posit here that disaster frameworks be reformed to emphasize and clarify the relation of public health emergencies and modern disasters.

Prognostic factors in follicular lymphoma: new tools to personalize risk.

PubMed

Casulo, Carla

2016-12-02

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most common indolent lymphoma, and it has a long median overall survival (OS). However, the recent discovery of clinical and biological prognostic biomarkers in FL is shedding light on FL heterogeneity and the need for a precise and risk-stratified individual approach at diagnosis and relapse. Many FL patients who are asymptomatic with indolent disease can be vulnerable to the toxicity, emotional distress, and financial burden of overtreatment. Yet a subset of FL patients develop chemoresistance to standard chemoimmunotherapy, experience transformation to aggressive lymphoma and rapid progression, and represent the population most in need of novel therapies and curative approaches. Novel biomarkers that incorporate both clinical and genetic determinants of poor risk are being developed with the hope of identifying high-risk patients at diagnosis in order to offer biologically rational targeted therapies. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology. All rights reserved.

Informed consent in implantable BCI research: identification of research risks and recommendations for development of best practices.

PubMed

Klein, Eran; Ojemann, Jeffrey

2016-08-01

Implantable brain-computer interface (BCI) research promises improvements in human health and enhancements in quality of life. Informed consent of subjects is a central tenet of this research. Rapid advances in neuroscience, and the intimate connection between functioning of the brain and conceptions of the self, make informed consent particularly challenging in BCI research. Identification of safety and research-related risks associated with BCI devices is an important step in ensuring meaningful informed consent. This paper highlights a number of BCI research risks, including safety concerns, cognitive and communicative impairments, inappropriate subject expectations, group vulnerabilities, privacy and security, and disruptions of identity. Based on identified BCI research risks, best practices are needed for understanding and incorporating BCI-related risks into informed consent protocols. Development of best practices should be guided by processes that are: multidisciplinary, systematic and transparent, iterative, relational and exploratory.

From classical psychodynamics to evidence synthesis: the motif of repression and a contemporary understanding of a key mediatory mechanism in psychosis.

PubMed

Fleming, Mick P; Martin, Colin R

2012-06-01

The stress vulnerability model has proven to be a politically important model for two reasons. It has provided the framework that defines a temporal and dynamic process whereby a person's uniquely determined biopsychosocial vulnerability to schizophrenia symptoms interacts with his or her capacity to manage stress and the amount and type of stress experienced in such a way that the person experiences schizophrenia symptoms. Second, the development of this framework promoted the notion of inherited and acquired vulnerability. Implicit was that vulnerability was individually determined and that there was a role for psychosocial factors in the development/maintenance of schizophrenia symptoms. This proved to be a catalyst for the development of studies implicating psychosocial factors in the etiology of schizophrenia symptoms. Studies derived from cognitive-behavioral theories have proven the most successful in identifying thinking patterns, emotional disturbances, and neurocognitive and defensive vulnerability factors inherent in the development of schizophrenia symptoms. Historically, within the psychoanalytic school there has been debate regarding the role of repressive coping mechanisms in schizophrenia development. Psychoanalytic theories have always appeared incapable of providing etiologic explanations of schizophrenia symptoms, with the possible exception of Melanie Klein, than other more salient psychosocial schools. Mechanisms within the process of repressive coping are consistent with evidence and mechanisms supporting the stress vulnerability models and existing cognitive-behavioral theories regarding development of paranoid delusions. These mechanisms are less consistent with social cognitive explanations of schizophrenia symptoms.

Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Yung-Jaan, E-mail: yungjaanlee@gmail.com

In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but alsomore » be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This study adopts an exploratory approach that provides Chiayi and other government agencies with a foundation for sustainable strategic planning for environmental change. The final section offers four suggestions concerning the implications of social vulnerability for local development planning. -- Highlights: • This study proposes a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level in Chiayi County, Taiwan. • Seventeen social vulnerability indicators are categorized into four dimensions. • This study performs a three-layer overlay analysis of social vulnerability and natural disaster risk patterns. • 4 out of the 18 townships not only have potential for large-scale flooding, but also high degree of social vulnerability. • This study provides a foundation for sustainable strategic planning to deal with environmental change. • Four suggestions are proposed regarding the implications of social vulnerability for local development planning.« less

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Developmental timeframes for induction of microgyria and rapid auditory processing deficits in the rat.

PubMed

Threlkeld, Steven W; McClure, Melissa M; Rosen, Glenn D; Fitch, R Holly

2006-09-13

Induction of a focal freeze lesion to the skullcap of a 1-day-old rat pup leads to the formation of microgyria similar to those identified postmortem in human dyslexics. Rats with microgyria exhibit rapid auditory processing deficits similar to those seen in language-impaired (LI) children, and infants at risk for LI and these effects are particularly marked in juvenile as compared to adult subjects. In the current study, a startle response paradigm was used to investigate gap detection in juvenile and adult rats that received bilateral freezing lesions or sham surgery on postnatal day (P) 1, 3 or 5. Microgyria were confirmed in P1 and 3 lesion rats, but not in the P5 lesion group. We found a significant reduction in brain weight and neocortical volume in P1 and 3 lesioned brains relative to shams. Juvenile (P27-39) behavioral data indicated significant rapid auditory processing deficits in all three lesion groups as compared to sham subjects, while adult (P60+) data revealed a persistent disparity only between P1-lesioned rats and shams. Combined results suggest that generalized pathology affecting neocortical development is responsible for the presence of rapid auditory processing deficits, rather than factors specific to the formation of microgyria per se. Finally, results show that the window for the induction of rapid auditory processing deficits through disruption of neurodevelopment appears to extend beyond the endpoint for cortical neuronal migration, although, the persistent deficits exhibited by P1 lesion subjects suggest a secondary neurodevelopmental window at the time of cortical neuromigration representing a peak period of vulnerability.

Stream vulnerability to widespread and emergent stressors: a focus on unconventional oil and gas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Entrekin, Sally; Maloney, Kelly O.; Katherine E. Kapo,; Walters, Annika W.; Evans-White, Michelle A.; Klemow, Kenneth M.

2015-01-01

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects.

Stream Vulnerability to Widespread and Emergent Stressors: A Focus on Unconventional Oil and Gas

PubMed Central

Entrekin, Sally A.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Kapo, Katherine E.; Walters, Annika W.; Evans-White, Michelle A.; Klemow, Kenneth M.

2015-01-01

Multiple stressors threaten stream physical and biological quality, including elevated nutrients and other contaminants, riparian and in-stream habitat degradation and altered natural flow regime. Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development is one emerging stressor that spans the U.S. UOG development could alter stream sedimentation, riparian extent and composition, in-stream flow, and water quality. We developed indices to describe the watershed sensitivity and exposure to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and computed a vulnerability index from these two scores across stream catchments in six productive shale plays. We predicted that catchment vulnerability scores would vary across plays due to climatic, geologic and anthropogenic differences. Across-shale averages supported this prediction revealing differences in catchment sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability scores that resulted from different natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For example, semi-arid Western shale play catchments (Mowry, Hilliard, and Bakken) tended to be more sensitive to stressors due to low annual average precipitation and extensive grassland. Catchments in the Barnett and Marcellus-Utica were naturally sensitive from more erosive soils and steeper catchment slopes, but these catchments also experienced areas with greater UOG densities and urbanization. Our analysis suggested Fayetteville and Barnett catchments were vulnerable due to existing anthropogenic exposure. However, all shale plays had catchments that spanned a wide vulnerability gradient. Our results identify vulnerable catchments that can help prioritize stream protection and monitoring efforts. Resource managers can also use these findings to guide local development activities to help reduce possible environmental effects. PMID:26397727

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Involving members of vulnerable populations in the development of patient decision aids: a mixed methods sequential explanatory study.

PubMed

Dugas, Michèle; Trottier, Marie-Ève; Chipenda Dansokho, Selma; Vaisson, Gratianne; Provencher, Thierry; Colquhoun, Heather; Dogba, Maman Joyce; Dupéré, Sophie; Fagerlin, Angela; Giguere, Anik M C; Haslett, Lynne; Hoffman, Aubri S; Ivers, Noah M; Légaré, France; Légaré, Jean; Levin, Carrie A; Menear, Matthew; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien; Stacey, Dawn; Volk, Robert J; Witteman, Holly O

2017-01-19

Patient decision aids aim to present evidence relevant to a health decision in understandable ways to support patients through the process of making evidence-informed, values-congruent health decisions. It is recommended that, when developing these tools, teams involve people who may ultimately use them. However, there is little empirical evidence about how best to undertake this involvement, particularly for specific populations of users such as vulnerable populations. To describe and compare the development practices of research teams that did and did not specifically involve members of vulnerable populations in the development of patient decision aids, we conducted a secondary analysis of data from a systematic review about the development processes of patient decision aids. Then, to further explain our quantitative results, we conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 10 teams: 6 that had specifically involved members of vulnerable populations and 4 that had not. Two independent analysts thematically coded transcribed interviews. Out of a total of 187 decision aid development projects, 30 (16%) specifically involved members of vulnerable populations. The specific involvement of members of vulnerable populations in the development process was associated with conducting informal needs assessment activities (73% vs. 40%, OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.18-7.99, P = .02) and recruiting participants through community-based organizations (40% vs. 11%, OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.23-9.83, P = .02). In interviews, all developers highlighted the importance, value and challenges of involving potential users. Interviews with developers whose projects had involved members of vulnerable populations suggested that informal needs assessment activities served to center the decision aid around users' needs, to better avoid stigma, and to ensure that the topic truly matters to the community. Partnering with community-based organizations may facilitate relationships of trust and may also provide a non-threatening and accessible location for research activities. There are a small number of key differences in the development processes for patient decision aids in which members of vulnerable populations were or were not specifically involved. Some of these practices may require additional time or resources. To address health inequities, researchers, communities and funders may need to increase awareness of these approaches and plan accordingly.

Development of vulnerability curves to typhoon hazards based on insurance policy and claim dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Wanmei; Fang, Weihua; li, Xinze; Wu, Peng; Tong, Xingwei

2016-04-01

Vulnerability refers to the characteristics and circumstances of an exposure that make it vulnerable to the effects of some certain hazards. It can be divided into physical vulnerability, social vulnerability, economic vulnerabilities and environmental vulnerability. Physical vulnerability indicates the potential physical damage of exposure caused by natural hazards. Vulnerability curves, quantifying the loss ratio against hazard intensity with a horizontal axis for the intensity and a vertical axis for the Mean Damage Ratio (MDR), is essential to the vulnerability assessment and quantitative evaluation of disasters. Fragility refers to the probability of diverse damage states under different hazard intensity, revealing a kind of characteristic of the exposure. Fragility curves are often used to quantify the probability of a given set of exposure at or exceeding a certain damage state. The development of quantitative fragility and vulnerability curves is the basis of catastrophe modeling. Generally, methods for quantitative fragility and vulnerability assessment can be categorized into empirical, analytical and expert opinion or judgment-based ones. Empirical method is one of the most popular methods and it relies heavily on the availability and quality of historical hazard and loss dataset, which has always been a great challenge. Analytical method is usually based on the engineering experiments and it is time-consuming and lacks built-in validation, so its credibility is also sometimes criticized widely. Expert opinion or judgment-based method is quite effective in the absence of data but the results could be too subjective so that the uncertainty is likely to be underestimated. In this study, we will present the fragility and vulnerability curves developed with empirical method based on simulated historical typhoon wind, rainfall and induced flood, and insurance policy and claim datasets of more than 100 historical typhoon events. Firstly, an insurance exposure classification system is built according to structure type, occupation type and insurance coverage. Then MDR estimation method based on considering insurance policy structure and claim information is proposed and validated. Following that, fragility and vulnerability curves of the major exposure types for construction, homeowner insurance and enterprise property insurance are fitted with empirical function based on the historical dataset. The results of this study can not only help understand catastrophe risk and mange insured disaster risks, but can also be applied in other disaster risk reduction efforts.

Psychometric Properties and Utility of the Social Vulnerability Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Fisher, Marisa H; Shivers, Carolyn M; Josol, Cynde K

2018-06-05

Although it is well-known that individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are socially vulnerable, the field lacks valid assessments to identify risk factors for victimization. Parents/caregivers of 428 individuals with IDD (ages 12-53) completed the social vulnerability questionnaire (SVQ), a measure developed to assess specific aspects of social vulnerability among individuals with various forms of IDD. This study examined the psychometric structure of the SVQ (exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis), and the utility of the factors of the SVQ as predictors of diagnostic category (through discriminate function analysis). Results provide psychometric support for use of the SVQ and its factors for further research and as part of a clinical assessment battery to assess social vulnerability and to develop interventions.

Factors Affecting Public-Supply Well Vulnerability in Two Karst Aquifers

PubMed Central

Musgrove, MaryLynn; Katz, Brian G; Fahlquist, Lynne S; Crandall, Christy A; Lindgren, Richard J

2014-01-01

Karst aquifers occur in a range of climatic and geologic settings. Nonetheless, they are commonly characterized by their vulnerability to water-quality impairment. Two karst aquifers, the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas and the Upper Floridan aquifer in western Florida, were investigated to assess factors that control the movement of contaminants to public-supply wells (PSWs). The geochemistry of samples from a selected PSW or wellfield in each aquifer was compared with that from nearby monitoring wells and regional PSWs. Geochemistry results were integrated with age tracers, flow modeling, and depth-dependent data to refine aquifer conceptual models and to identify factors that affect contaminant movement to PSWs. The oxic Edwards aquifer is vertically well mixed at the selected PSW/wellfield, although regionally the aquifer is geochemically variable downdip. The mostly anoxic Upper Floridan aquifer is affected by denitrification and also is geochemically variable with depth. In spite of considerable differences in geology and hydrogeology, the two aquifers are similarly vulnerable to anthropogenic contamination. Vulnerability in studied PSWs in both aquifers is strongly influenced by rapid karst flowpaths and the dominance of young (<10 years) groundwater. Vulnerability was demonstrated by the frequent detection of similar constituents of concern in both aquifers (nitrate, atrazine, deethylatrazine, tetrachloroethene, and chloroform). Specific consideration of water-quality protection efforts, well construction and placement, and aquifer response times to land-use changes and contaminant loading are discussed, with implications for karst groundwater management. PMID:24841501

Factors affecting public-supply well vulnerability in two karst aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Musgrove, MaryLynn; Katz, Brian G.; Fahlquist, Lynne S.; Crandall, Christy A.; Lindgren, Richard J.

2014-01-01

Karst aquifers occur in a range of climatic and geologic settings. Nonetheless, they are commonly characterized by their vulnerability to water-quality impairment. Two karst aquifers, the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas and the Upper Floridan aquifer in western Florida, were investigated to assess factors that control the movement of contaminants to public-supply wells (PSWs). The geochemistry of samples from a selected PSW or wellfield in each aquifer was compared with that from nearby monitoring wells and regional PSWs. Geochemistry results were integrated with age tracers, flow modeling, and depth-dependent data to refine aquifer conceptual models and to identify factors that affect contaminant movement to PSWs. The oxic Edwards aquifer is vertically well mixed at the selected PSW/wellfield, although regionally the aquifer is geochemically variable downdip. The mostly anoxic Upper Floridan aquifer is affected by denitrification and also is geochemically variable with depth. In spite of considerable differences in geology and hydrogeology, the two aquifers are similarly vulnerable to anthropogenic contamination. Vulnerability in studied PSWs in both aquifers is strongly influenced by rapid karst flowpaths and the dominance of young (<10 years) groundwater. Vulnerability was demonstrated by the frequent detection of similar constituents of concern in both aquifers (nitrate, atrazine, deethylatrazine, tetrachloroethene, and chloroform). Specific consideration of water-quality protection efforts, well construction and placement, and aquifer response times to land-use changes and contaminant loading are discussed, with implications for karst groundwater management.

Community vulnerability to health impacts of wildland fire smoke exposure

EPA Science Inventory

Identifying communities vulnerable to adverse health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke may help prepare responses, increase the resilience to smoke and improve public health outcomes during smoke days. We developed a Community Health-Vulnerability Index (CHVI) based on fact...

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Rapid assessment of health needs in mass emergencies: review of current concepts and methods.

PubMed

Guha-Sapir, D

1991-01-01

The increase in the number of natural disasters and their impact on population is of growing concern to countries at risk and agencies involved in health and humanitarian action. The numbers of persons killed or disabled as a result of earthquakes, cyclones, floods and famines have reached record levels in the last decade. Population density, rampant urbanization and climatic changes have brought about risk patterns that are exposing larger and larger sections of populations in developing countries to life-threatening natural disasters. Despite substantial spending on emergency relief, the approaches to relief remain largely ad hoc and amateurish, resulting generally in inappropriate and/or delayed action. In recent years, mass emergencies of the kind experienced in Bangladesh or the Sahelian countries have highlighted the importance of rapid assessment of health needs for better allocation of resources and relief management. As a result, the development of techniques for rapid assessment of health needs has been identified as a priority for effective emergency action. This article sketches the health context of disasters in terms of mortality and morbidity patterns; it describes initial assessment techniques currently used and their methodological biases and constraints; it also discusses assessment needs which vary between different types of disasters and the time frame within which assessments are undertaken. Earthquakes, cyclones, famines, epidemics or refugees all have specific risk profiles and emergency conditions which differ for each situation. Vulnerability to mortality changes according to age and occupation, for earthquakes and famines. These risk factors then have significant implications for the design of rapid assessment protocols and checklists. Experiences from the field in rapid survey techniques and estimation of death rates are discussed, with emphasis on the need for a reliable denominator even for the roughest assessment. Finally, the importance of adapting normal epidemiological and statistical methodologies to crisis situations is underlined in order to rationalize the recurrent and substantial expenditures made in response to natural disasters today.

Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

PubMed

Siebeneck, Laura

2016-01-01

To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drawing together approaches and experiences in the Italian coastal research: the new challenges of RITMARE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaldo, Davide

2017-04-01

The increasing awareness of the potential threats acting on the coastal regions, combined with the intense anthropic pressure and the broad variety of socio-economic drivers acting on these systems, bestowed progressively stronger emphasis to the development of sound planning and management policies. The assessment and the formulation of plans for the response to coastal morphological vulnerability is a multidisciplinary challenge, in which different typology of information, approaches and scales need to be integrated and framed within a consistent dynamical description. To this aim, within the RITMARE National Flagship Project, a specific research line on "Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion and Relative Sea level rise in climate change scenarios" was activated with reference to the Adriatic-Ionian region (Eastern Mediterranean Sea). The activities, supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research 2016-18, move along three interconnected branches, namely: 1) Assessment of vulnerability to relative sea level rise in the Adriatic-Ionian region, in present conditions and in different climate change scenarios; 2) Development of high-resolution oceanographic modelling tools for the description of meteo-marine climate and sediment transport at different scales and rapid response intervention protocols for the evaluation of the impact of erosive events on sandy sediments; 3) Identification of possible geomorphological setting scenarios and definition of intervention strategies, with special care to the exploitment of marine sand as a strategic resource. The work provides an overview of the strategy underlying the Research Line and present preliminary results and main achievements. Next steps will be aiming to pave the way towards a road map for an integrated observational and modelling approach for monitoring and managing the erosion and marine ingression risk throughout Italian coasts, striving to bridge the cultural and methodological gaps between the scientific and administrative sectors active in the coastal management field.

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

Information processing during sleep and stress-related sleep vulnerability.

PubMed

Lin, Yen-Hsuan; Jen, Chun-Hui; Yang, Chien-Ming

2015-02-01

Previous studies showed enhanced attention and decreased inhibitory processes during early non-rapid eye movement sleep in primary insomnia patients, as measured by event-related potentials. The current study aims to examine information processing during sleep in non-insomniac individuals with high vulnerability (HV) to stress-related sleep disturbances. Twenty-seven non-insomniac individuals were recruited, 14 with low vulnerability and 13 with HV. After passing a screening interview and polysomnographic recording, subjects came to the sleep laboratory for 2 nights (a baseline night and a stress-inducing night) for event-related potentials recordings. The HV group demonstrated shorter P2 latency during the first 5 min of stage 2 sleep and higher P900 amplitudes under the stress condition during slow-wave sleep, which indicates an increased level of inhibitory processes. In addition, they had shorter N1 latencies during slow-wave sleep that could indicate an elevated level of attention processing during deep sleep. Unlike patients with chronic insomnia, individuals with high sleep vulnerability to stress show a compensatory process that may prevent external stimulation from interfering with their sleep. This may be one of the factors preventing their acute sleep disturbances from becoming chronic problems. © 2014 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2014 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Religion and HIV Sexual Risk Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China.

PubMed

Pan, Stephen W; Zhang, Zheng; Li, Dongliang; Carpiano, Richard M; Schechter, Martin T; Ruan, Yuhua; Spittal, Patricia M

2016-12-01

Religion can profoundly impact the sociocultural contexts that shape sexual HIV vulnerability among men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the relationship between religion and HIV vulnerability remains poorly understood for MSM in China, where religious affiliations and practices are rapidly increasing. Using cross-sectional survey data collected in Beijing and Tianjin, China, from 2013 to 2014 (n = 400), this study tests 3 hypotheses regarding religion and HIV sexual risk: (1) HIV vulnerabilities and testing patterns among religiously affiliated MSM are lower than for areligious MSM, (2) religiosity is inversely associated with HIV vulnerabilities and testing, and (3) the magnitude of inverse association between religiosity and HIV vulnerabilities/testing will be stronger among Christian and Muslim MSM than Buddhist and areligious MSM. Compared with areligious participants, Buddhists had higher odds of reporting unprotected anal intercourse [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13 to 3.75] and more male sex partners (AOR: 1.95, 1.16-3.27), whereas Muslims had lower odds of reporting unprotected anal intercourse (AOR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.15 to 0.73) and higher odds of reporting male circumcision (AOR: 3.04, 95% CI: 1.45 to 6.40). Reporting of forced sex was associated with more frequent participation in social religious activities (AOR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.52) and private religious activities (AOR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.61). Among Christians, participation in private religious activities was associated with lower odds of reporting anal intercourse (AOR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.27 to 0.88). The sustained growth of multiple religious traditions in China appears to have important implications for HIV vulnerability among religious minority MSM.

Applying a statewide geospatial leaching tool for assessing soil vulnerability ratings for agrochemicals across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan; Hantush, Mohamed M

2015-06-15

A large-scale leaching assessment tool not only illustrates soil (or groundwater) vulnerability in unmonitored areas, but also can identify areas of potential concern for agrochemical contamination. This study describes the methodology of how the statewide leaching tool in Hawaii modified recently for use with pesticides and volatile organic compounds can be extended to the national assessment of soil vulnerability ratings. For this study, the tool was updated by extending the soil and recharge maps to cover the lower 48 states in the United States (US). In addition, digital maps of annual pesticide use (at a national scale) as well as detailed soil properties and monthly recharge rates (at high spatial and temporal resolutions) were used to examine variations in the leaching (loads) of pesticides for the upper soil horizons. Results showed that the extended tool successfully delineated areas of high to low vulnerability to selected pesticides. The leaching potential was high for picloram, medium for simazine, and low to negligible for 2,4-D and glyphosate. The mass loadings of picloram moving below 0.5 m depth increased greatly in northwestern and central US that recorded its extensive use in agricultural crops. However, in addition to the amount of pesticide used, annual leaching load of atrazine was also affected by other factors that determined the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability such as soil and recharge properties. Spatial and temporal resolutions of digital maps had a great effect on the leaching potential of pesticides, requiring a trade-off between data availability and accuracy. Potential applications of this tool include the rapid, large-scale vulnerability assessments for emerging contaminants which are hard to quantify directly through vadose zone models due to lack of full environmental data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote sensing and GIS for land use/cover mapping and integrated land management: case from the middle Ganga plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. B.; Kumar, Dilip

2012-06-01

In India, land resources have reached a critical stage due to the rapidly growing population. This challenge requires an integrated approach toward harnessing land resources, while taking into account the vulnerable environmental conditions. Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) based technologies may be applied to an area in order to generate a sustainable development plan that is optimally suited to the terrain and to the productive potential of the local resources. The present study area is a part of the middle Ganga plain, known as Son-Karamnasa interfluve, in India. Alternative land use systems and the integration of livestock enterprises with the agricultural system have been suggested for land resources management. The objective of this paper is to prepare a land resource development plan in order to increase the productivity of land for sustainable development. The present study will contribute necessary input for policy makers to improve the socio-economic and environmental conditions of the region.

Nematode and grape rootstock interactions including an improved understanding of tolerance.

PubMed

McKenry, M V; Anwar, Safdar A

2006-09-01

Sixteen cultivars of grape were screened over a two-year period in the presence or absence of 10 different nematode populations. Populations of Meloidogyne spp., Xiphinema index, and Mesocriconema xenoplax developed more rapidly and caused greater damage than populations of X. americanum and Tylenchulus semipenetrans. Populations of mixed Meloidogyne spp. having a history of feeding on grape were among the fastest developing populations. Tolerance to nematode parasitism appeared to be based on different mechanisms. Slow developing, less pathogenic nematode populations often stimulated vine growth, thus vines appeared to possess tolerance. Likewise, cultivars selected for nematode resistance often stimulated vine growth when fed upon by the nematode. However, tolerance sources that resulted from nematode resistance are vulnerable due to the occurrence of populations that break resistance mechanisms. Growth of cultivars with phylloxera (Daktalospharia vitifoliae) resistance was unchanged by the presence of nematodes, indicating that phylloxera resistance may provide a useful source of nematode relief. These and several additional sources of specific tolerance are discussed.

Nematode and Grape Rootstock Interactions Including an Improved Understanding of Tolerance

PubMed Central

McKenry, M.V.; Anwar, Safdar A.

2006-01-01

Sixteen cultivars of grape were screened over a two-year period in the presence or absence of 10 different nematode populations. Populations of Meloidogyne spp., Xiphinema index, and Mesocriconema xenoplax developed more rapidly and caused greater damage than populations of X. americanum and Tylenchulus semipenetrans. Populations of mixed Meloidogyne spp. having a history of feeding on grape were among the fastest developing populations. Tolerance to nematode parasitism appeared to be based on different mechanisms. Slow developing, less pathogenic nematode populations often stimulated vine growth, thus vines appeared to possess tolerance. Likewise, cultivars selected for nematode resistance often stimulated vine growth when fed upon by the nematode. However, tolerance sources that resulted from nematode resistance are vulnerable due to the occurrence of populations that break resistance mechanisms. Growth of cultivars with phylloxera (Daktalospharia vitifoliae) resistance was unchanged by the presence of nematodes, indicating that phylloxera resistance may provide a useful source of nematode relief. These and several additional sources of specific tolerance are discussed. PMID:19259534

Time-dependent effects of cortisol on the contextualization of emotional memories.

PubMed

van Ast, Vanessa A; Cornelisse, Sandra; Meeter, Martijn; Joëls, Marian; Kindt, Merel

2013-12-01

The inability to store fearful memories into their original encoding context is considered to be an important vulnerability factor for the development of anxiety disorders like posttraumatic stress disorder. Altered memory contextualization most likely involves effects of the stress hormone cortisol, acting via receptors located in the memory neurocircuitry. Cortisol via these receptors induces rapid nongenomic effects followed by slower genomic effects, which are thought to modulate cognitive function in opposite, complementary ways. Here, we targeted these time-dependent effects of cortisol during memory encoding and tested subsequent contextualization of emotional and neutral memories. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled design, 64 men were randomly assigned to one of three groups: 1) received 10 mg hydrocortisone 30 minutes (rapid cortisol effects) before a memory encoding task; 2) received 10 mg hydrocortisone 210 minutes (slow cortisol) before a memory encoding task; or 3) received placebo at both times. During encoding, participants were presented with neutral and emotional words in unique background pictures. Approximately 24 hours later, context dependency of their memories was assessed. Recognition data revealed that cortisol's rapid effects impair emotional memory contextualization, while cortisol's slow effects enhance it. Neutral memory contextualization remained unaltered by cortisol, irrespective of the timing of the drug. This study shows distinct time-dependent effects of cortisol on the contextualization of specifically emotional memories. The results suggest that rapid effects of cortisol may lead to impaired emotional memory contextualization, while slow effects of cortisol may confer protection against emotional memory generalization. © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry.

Striving to Reduce Vulnerability:Lessons from the Poor Community Livelihoodsin the Jakarta Bay Facing High Risk of Rapid Urbanization and Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayati, D.; Delinom, R. M.; Abdurachim, A. Y.; Dalimunthe, S.; Haba, J.; Pawitan, H.

2014-12-01

This paper discusses water-food issues in relation to how livelihoods of the poor community in Jakarta Bayarein high risk ofrapid urbanization and climate changes. As a part of the capital city of Indonesia, this area has experienced rapid increase in populationand extensive developments causing significant increase in the built up area. This city is unable to keep with demand on sewers, water and solid waste management, leading to settlement with concentrated slum pockets areas and widespread of flooding. The community is mostly poor people of productive group, live with urban pressure in fragile home and livelihoods.The situation becomes much worse due to the impact of climate change with flooding as the greatest climate and disaster risk. With lack of basic services, coastal water inundation (BanjirRob)commonly occursand floods the community housing areaswithout patternanymore. The community has lack of fresh and clean water sources and facedeconomic problem, particularly significant reduction of fishing activities. Coastal reclamation and water pollution from nearby industries are blamed as the main reason for these problems. Strategies therefore have to be developed, especially increasing community awareness and preparedness, and poverty alleviation, to sustain their livelihoods in this high risk urban area.

Science-Driven Approach to Disaster Risk and Crisis Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2014-12-01

Disasters due to natural extreme events continue to grow in number and intensity. Disaster risk and crisis management requires long-term planning, and to undertake that planning, a science-driven approach is needed to understand and assess disaster risks and to help in impact assessment and in recovery processes after a disaster. Science is used in assessments and rapid modeling of the disaster impact, in forecasting triggered hazards and risk (e.g., a tsunami or a landslide after a large earthquake), in contacts with and medical treatment of the affected population, and in some other actions. At the stage of response to disaster, science helps to analyze routinely the disaster happened (e.g., the physical processes led to this extreme event; hidden vulnerabilities; etc.) At the stage of recovery, natural scientists improve the existing regional hazard assessments; engineers try to use new science to produce new materials and technologies to make safer houses and infrastructure. At the stage of disaster risk mitigation new scientific methods and approaches are being developed to study natural extreme events; vulnerability of society is periodically investigated, and the measures for increasing the resilience of society to extremes are developed; existing disaster management regulations are improved. At the stage of preparedness, integrated research on disaster risks should be developed to understand the roots of potential disasters. Enhanced forecasting and early warning systems are to be developed reducing predictive uncertainties, and comprehensive disaster risk assessment is to be undertaken at local, regional, national and global levels. Science education should be improved by introducing trans-disciplinary approach to disaster risks. Science can help society by improving awareness about extreme events, enhancing risk communication with policy makers, media and society, and assisting disaster risk management authorities in organization of local and regional training and exercises.

The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kunreuther, H.; Platt, R.; Baruch, S.; Bernknopf, R.L.; Buckley, M.; Burkett, V.; Conrad, D.; Davidson, T.; Deutsch, K.; Geis, D.; Jannereth, M.; Knap, A.; Lane, H.; Ljung, G.; McCauley, M.; Mileti, D.; Miller, T.; Morrow, B.; Meyers, J.; Pielke, R.; Pratt, A.; Tripp, J.

2000-01-01

Society has limited hazard mitigation dollars to invest. Which actions will be most cost effective, considering the true range of impacts and costs incurred? In 1997, the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment began a two-year study with a panel of experts to help develop new strategies to identify and reduce the costs of weather-related hazards associated with rapidly increasing coastal development activities.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards presents the panel's findings, offering the first in-depth study that considers the costs of coastal hazards to natural resources, social institutions, business, and the built environment. Using Hurricane Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, as a case study, it provides for the first time information on the full range of economic costs caused by a major coastal hazard event. The book:describes and examines unreported, undocumented, and hidden costs such as losses due to business interruption, reduction in property values, interruption of social services, psychological trauma, damage to natural systems, and othersexamines the concepts of risk and vulnerability, and discusses conventional approaches to risk assessment and the emerging area of vulnerability assessmentrecommends a comprehensive framework for developing and implementing mitigation strategiesdocuments the human impact of Hurricane Hugo and provides insight from those who lived through it.The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards takes a structured approach to the problem of coastal hazards, offering a new framework for community-based hazard mitigation along with specific recommendations for implementation. Decisionmakers -- both policymakers and planners -- who are interested in coastal hazard issues will find the book a unique source of new information and insight, as will private-sector decisionmakers including lenders, investors, developers, and insurers of coastal property.

Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.

2010-01-01

The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of current distributions for new invasive exotic species.

AVQS: attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme for smart grid.

PubMed

Ko, Jongbin; Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification.

Sagebrush in western North America: habitats and species in jeopardy.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2007-01-01

Sagebrush habitats are declining rapidly across western North America, with over 350 associated plant and animal species at risk of local or regional extirpation. The sagebrush ecosystem is one of the largest in the United States, and it is vulnerable to a litany of threats. Chief among them is invasion of cheatgrass into the understory, followed by high-severity fires...

The Security of Machine Learning

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-24

Machine learning has become a fundamental tool for computer security, since it can rapidly evolve to changing and complex situations. That...adaptability is also a vulnerability: attackers can exploit machine learning systems. We present a taxonomy identifying and analyzing attacks against machine ...We use our framework to survey and analyze the literature of attacks against machine learning systems. We also illustrate our taxonomy by showing

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Term Communications In countering terrorism or insurgency, short-term communications efforts—such as crisis response or rapid message adaptation in...of time. Within the literature on crisis communications is a generally agreed- on list of preparatory actions an organization should take, including...writing a crisis response plan, assigning crisis spokespersons and teams, training staff for crises, identifying communications risks and vulner

On the security of two remote user authentication schemes for telecare medical information systems.

PubMed

Kim, Kee-Won; Lee, Jae-Dong

2014-05-01

The telecare medical information systems (TMISs) support convenient and rapid health-care services. A secure and efficient authentication scheme for TMIS provides safeguarding patients' electronic patient records (EPRs) and helps health care workers and medical personnel to rapidly making correct clinical decisions. Recently, Kumari et al. proposed a password based user authentication scheme using smart cards for TMIS, and claimed that the proposed scheme could resist various malicious attacks. However, we point out that their scheme is still vulnerable to lost smart card and cannot provide forward secrecy. Subsequently, Das and Goswami proposed a secure and efficient uniqueness-and-anonymity-preserving remote user authentication scheme for connected health care. They simulated their scheme for the formal security verification using the widely-accepted automated validation of Internet security protocols and applications (AVISPA) tool to ensure that their scheme is secure against passive and active attacks. However, we show that their scheme is still vulnerable to smart card loss attacks and cannot provide forward secrecy property. The proposed cryptanalysis discourages any use of the two schemes under investigation in practice and reveals some subtleties and challenges in designing this type of schemes.

Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

2015-04-01

Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation models (DEM) or individual building vector layers. Morphological properties can be calculated for different scales using different moving window sizes. Multi-scale measures such as fractal or lacunarity can be integrated into the analysis. Other properties such as different densities and ratios are also easy to calculate and include. Based on a rather extensive set of properties or features, a feature selection or extraction method such as Principal Component Analysis can be used to obtain a subset of relevant properties. In a second step, an unsupervised classification algorithm such as Self-Organizing Maps can be used to group similar locations together, and criteria such as the intra-group distance and geographic distribution can be used for selecting relevant locations to be displayed in an interactive data exploration interface along with a given main location. A case study for a part of Switzerland illustrates the presented approach within a working interactive tool, showing the feasibility and allowing for an investigation of the usefulness of our method.

Early Markers of Vulnerable Language Skill Development in Galactosaemia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Fiona M.; Coman, David J.; Syrmis, Maryanne

2014-01-01

There are no known biomedical or genetic markers to identify which infants with galactosaemia (GAL) are most at risk of poor language skill development, yet pre-linguistic communicative "red flag" behaviours are recognised as early identifiers of heightened vulnerability to impaired language development. We report on pre-linguistic…

Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

2016-12-01

The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current infrastructure and prioritize future infrastructure investment.

Evaluation of carotid plaque vulnerability in vivo: Correlation between dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI and MRI-modified AHA classification.

PubMed

Ge, Xiaoqian; Zhou, Zien; Zhao, Huilin; Li, Xiao; Sun, Beibei; Suo, Shiteng; Hackett, Maree L; Wan, Jieqing; Xu, Jianrong; Liu, Xiaosheng

2017-09-01

To noninvasively monitor carotid plaque vulnerability by exploring the relationship between pharmacokinetic parameters (PPs) of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and plaque types based on MRI-modified American Heart Association (AHA) classification, as well as to assess the ability of PPs in discrimination between stable and vulnerable plaques suspected on MRI. Of 70 consecutive patients with carotid plaques who volunteered for 3.0T MRI (3D time-of-flight [TOF], T 1 -weighted, T 2 -weighted, 3D magnetization-prepared rapid acquisition gradient-echo [MP-RAGE] and DCE-MRI), 66 participants were available for analysis. After plaque classification according to MRI-modified AHA Lesion-Type (LT), PPs (K trans , k ep , v e , and v p ) of DCE-MRI were measured. The Extended Tofts model was used for calculation of PPs. For participants with multiple carotid plaques, the plaque with the worst MRI-modified AHA LT was chosen for analysis. Correlations between PPs and plaque types and the ability of these parameters to distinguish stable and vulnerable plaques suspected on MRI were assessed. Significant positive correlation between K trans and LT III to VI was found (ρ = 0.532, P < 0.001), as was the correlation between k ep and LT III to VI (ρ = 0.409, P < 0.001). Stable and vulnerable plaques suspected on MRI could potentially be distinguished by K trans (sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%) and k ep (sensitivity 77%, specificity 91%). K trans and k ep from DCE-MRI can provide quantitative information to monitor plaque vulnerability in vivo and differentiate vulnerable plaques suspected on MRI from stable ones. These two parameters could be adopted as imaging biomarkers for plaque characterization and risk stratification. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;46:870-876. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Essential roles of methionine and S-adenosylmethionine in the autarkic lifestyle of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Berney, Michael; Berney-Meyer, Linda; Wong, Ka-Wing; Chen, Bing; Chen, Mei; Kim, John; Wang, Jingxin; Harris, David; Parkhill, Julian; Chan, John; Wang, Feng; Jacobs, William R.

2015-01-01

Multidrug resistance, strong side effects, and compliance problems in TB chemotherapy mandate new ways to kill Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Here we show that deletion of the gene encoding homoserine transacetylase (metA) inactivates methionine and S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) biosynthesis in Mtb and renders this pathogen exquisitely sensitive to killing in immunocompetent or immunocompromised mice, leading to rapid clearance from host tissues. Mtb ΔmetA is unable to proliferate in primary human macrophages, and in vitro starvation leads to extraordinarily rapid killing with no appearance of suppressor mutants. Cell death of Mtb ΔmetA is faster than that of other auxotrophic mutants (i.e., tryptophan, pantothenate, leucine, biotin), suggesting a particularly potent mechanism of killing. Time-course metabolomics showed complete depletion of intracellular methionine and SAM. SAM depletion was consistent with a significant decrease in methylation at the DNA level (measured by single-molecule real-time sequencing) and with the induction of several essential methyltransferases involved in biotin and menaquinone biosynthesis, both of which are vital biological processes and validated targets of antimycobacterial drugs. Mtb ΔmetA could be partially rescued by biotin supplementation, confirming a multitarget cell death mechanism. The work presented here uncovers a previously unidentified vulnerability of Mtb—the incapacity to scavenge intermediates of SAM and methionine biosynthesis from the host. This vulnerability unveils an entirely new drug target space with the promise of rapid killing of the tubercle bacillus by a new mechanism of action. PMID:26221021

Essential roles of methionine and S-adenosylmethionine in the autarkic lifestyle of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

PubMed

Berney, Michael; Berney-Meyer, Linda; Wong, Ka-Wing; Chen, Bing; Chen, Mei; Kim, John; Wang, Jingxin; Harris, David; Parkhill, Julian; Chan, John; Wang, Feng; Jacobs, William R

2015-08-11

Multidrug resistance, strong side effects, and compliance problems in TB chemotherapy mandate new ways to kill Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Here we show that deletion of the gene encoding homoserine transacetylase (metA) inactivates methionine and S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) biosynthesis in Mtb and renders this pathogen exquisitely sensitive to killing in immunocompetent or immunocompromised mice, leading to rapid clearance from host tissues. Mtb ΔmetA is unable to proliferate in primary human macrophages, and in vitro starvation leads to extraordinarily rapid killing with no appearance of suppressor mutants. Cell death of Mtb ΔmetA is faster than that of other auxotrophic mutants (i.e., tryptophan, pantothenate, leucine, biotin), suggesting a particularly potent mechanism of killing. Time-course metabolomics showed complete depletion of intracellular methionine and SAM. SAM depletion was consistent with a significant decrease in methylation at the DNA level (measured by single-molecule real-time sequencing) and with the induction of several essential methyltransferases involved in biotin and menaquinone biosynthesis, both of which are vital biological processes and validated targets of antimycobacterial drugs. Mtb ΔmetA could be partially rescued by biotin supplementation, confirming a multitarget cell death mechanism. The work presented here uncovers a previously unidentified vulnerability of Mtb-the incapacity to scavenge intermediates of SAM and methionine biosynthesis from the host. This vulnerability unveils an entirely new drug target space with the promise of rapid killing of the tubercle bacillus by a new mechanism of action.

Navy LOVA propellant development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vreatt, W. H.; Mitchell, S. E.

1980-01-01

The progress realized on evaluation of inert binder, nitramine formulations is considered with respect to their development for use as low vulnerability ammunition (LOVA) propellants. Burning rate, plasticizers, crosslink agents, physical property and vulnerability studies are discussed and some preliminary conclusions presented.

Development of a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

This research develops a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks. This report consists of 1) describing the trends of freight movements in Utah, 2) identifying the current and potential freight chokepoints/bottlen...

MOLECULAR GENETIC TOOLS FOR ASSESSING THE STATUS AND VULNERABILITY OF AQUATIC RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Development of ecological indicators that efficiently capture the present condition and project future vulnerabilities of biological resources is critical to sound environmental management. For this reason, the ORD's Ecological Research Program is developing genetic methodologies...

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.

Approach for Developing a National Atlas of Vulnerabilities for U.S. Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the Atlas project is to support national- and regional-scale water quality and aquatic ecosystem vulnerability assessments by providing quantitative information on the relative vulnerability to climate change of different geographic regions and watershed systems ac...

Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

2017-03-01

Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis.

PubMed

Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

2014-07-01

Many security incidents are caused by software developers' failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases.

A Systematic Review of Life Skill Development through Sports Programs Serving Socially Vulnerable Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hermens, Niels; Super, Sabina; Verkooijen, Kirsten T.; Koelen, Maria A.

2017-01-01

Purpose: Despite the strong belief in sports programs as a setting in which socially vulnerable youth can develop life skills, no overview exists of life skill development in sports programs serving this youth group. Therefore, the present systematic review provides an overview of the evidence on life skill development in sports programs serving…

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Alam, G M Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, G. M. Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Impact of glaciers retreat on highland Andean wetlands and communities: lessons from the upper Cachi catchment (Ayacucho, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angulo, Oscar; Biévre Bert, De

2017-04-01

The vulnerability of water resources under climate change scenarios in Peru is generally regarded to be connected to a diminished availability of water due to retreating glaciers. However, the impact of glacier retreat goes much beyond a decline of glacial water reserves. This article argues that another important impact is the extreme erosion in areas where glaciers have recently melted, as well as the accumulation of erosion material in highland wetlands located downslope. As a direct consequence of these changes highland Andean communities which depend on these ecosystems are affected in socio-economic terms as they find themselves forced to alter ancestral dynamics and traditional practices of land and water use. This quickly leads to a vicious cycle of risks and threats. In such a context a possibility to adapt to glacial retreat should be to protect areas affected by glacial melt in order to enable a rapid development of protective vegetation cover. In the upper catchment of the Cachi River interesting experiences of protection and water harvesting exist that could be extended to other high vulnerability areas for the benefit of highland populations as well as downstream water users, such as the irrigation system of Cachi and the city of Ayacucho.

Recovery after shift work: Relation to coronary risk factors in women.

PubMed

Axelsson, John; Lowden, Arne; Kecklund, Göran

2006-01-01

Shift work increases the risk for developing cardiovascular disease. There is, however, little knowledge of what aspects of shift scheduling that are detrimental and what characteristics promote good health. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether coronary risk factors deteriorate after a hard work period and whether recovery, in the form of a week off, was sufficient to improve them. A total of 19 women worked an extremely rapidly rotating and clockwise shift schedule at a paper and pulp factory. They underwent two health examinations, one at the end of the work period and one after the week off. In addition, the women were divided into a tolerant and a vulnerable group, depending on their satisfaction with their work hours. Most risk factors did not change, but total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol were lower after the working period than after the week-off. In addition, vulnerable women had higher levels of total cholesterol and a higher ratio of total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) than tolerant ones. In conclusion, the finding that a week-off worsens cholesterol levels was against our hypothesis and suggests further studies on how activities/responsibilities outside the workplace affect shift-working women. It was also shown that susceptible shift workers had worse lipid profiles.

Estimating Casualties for Large Earthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Mike

2009-01-01

We developed an empirical country- and region-specific earthquake vulnerability model to be used as a candidate for post-earthquake fatality estimation by the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is based on past fatal earthquakes (earthquakes causing one or more deaths) in individual countries where at least four fatal earthquakes occurred during the catalog period (since 1973). Because only a few dozen countries have experienced four or more fatal earthquakes since 1973, we propose a new global regionalization scheme based on idealization of countries that are expected to have similar susceptibility to future earthquake losses given the existing building stock, its vulnerability, and other socioeconomic characteristics. The fatality estimates obtained using an empirical country- or region-specific model will be used along with other selected engineering risk-based loss models for generation of automated earthquake alerts. These alerts could potentially benefit the rapid-earthquake-response agencies and governments for better response to reduce earthquake fatalities. Fatality estimates are also useful to stimulate earthquake preparedness planning and disaster mitigation. The proposed model has several advantages as compared with other candidate methods, and the country- or region-specific fatality rates can be readily updated when new data become available.

Security Issues in mGovernment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Manish; Hanumanthappa, M.; Reddy, Bhavanam Lakshma

E-government is one of the most rapidly evolving service domains in the contemporary information society. Many governments have already developed and provided e-government services to businesses and citizens. Nowadays actors in the government domain attempt to take the next step and exploit the latest wireless technologies in order to provide ubiquitous services for mobile users. However, this approach involves some hidden risks mainly due to the inherent insecurity of the air medium and the vulnerabilities of the wireless systems. Thus, in this paper we investigate the security gaps and considerations which should be taken into account for an m-government system. Finally, we provide a list of security guidelines and policies, which the users of the system should be aware of and follow in order to avoid security attacks.

Advertising of ultra-processed foods and beverages: children as a vulnerable population.

PubMed

Mallarino, Christina; Gómez, Luis F; González-Zapata, Laura; Cadena, Yazmín; Parra, Diana C

2013-10-01

The rapid nutrition transition occurring in Latin America has resulted in a sharp increase of childhood overweight and obesity. Recent evidence has shown that food and beverage advertising has a great influence on children's eating behavior. This population has become a key target market for the ultra-processed foods and beverages industry, which is marketing products in an aggressive way. Evidence shows that Latin American countries have poor regulation of ultra-processed foods and beverages advertising, where the discourse of self-regulation still prevails over statutory regulations. The following commentary explores how advertising might play an important role in developing unhealthy dietary patterns and obesity in Latin American children, as well as the urgent need for government action and the involvement of civil society to tackle this public health issue.

Adolescent-parent conflict in the age of social media: Case reports from India.

PubMed

Shah, Ruchita; Chauhan, Nidhi; Gupta, Anoop Krishna; Sen, Mahadev Singh

2016-10-01

Social media activities have gained popularity amongst children and adolescents as a means of communication; giving them the opportunity for independence and social development as well as rendering them vulnerable to negative influences. In traditionally collectivistic societies like India, moving rapidly towards modernisation, not only is there a divide between parents and adolescents over the endorsement of these sites, but also regarding value systems related to autonomy and dating that are facilitated by such activities. We present cases of two adolescent girls to highlight adolescent parent conflict that arises in the age of social media in a cultural context. Further, the cases underscore that value systems and culture play an important role in resolution of such conflict. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Transportation System Vulnerability and Resilience to Extreme Weather Events and Other Natural Hazards : Final Results of Vulnerability Assessment of National Highway System for All KYTC Districts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-05-01

Recent federal legislation and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) have directed state transportation agencies to identify potential vulnerabilities associated with extreme weather events and climate change, develop a risk-based asset managemen...

The VCOP Scale: A Measure of Overprotection in Parents of Physically Vulnerable Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wright, Logan; And Others

1993-01-01

Developed Vulnerable Child/Overprotecting Parent Scale to measure overprotecting versus optimal developmental stimulation tendencies for parents of physically vulnerable children. Items were administered to parents whose parenting techniques had been rated as either highly overprotective or as optimal by group of physicians and other…

Development and Demography of Perceived Vulnerability in Youngsters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gochman, David S.

In order to assess children's perceived vulnerability to health problems, a longitudinal study was designed to observe third and seventh graders at five intervals over a 2-year period. The hypotheses tested concerned relationships between perceived vulnerability to health problems and age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Data were obtained from a…

Population-focused nursing: advocacy for vulnerable populations in an RN-BSN program.

PubMed

Jones, Melissa; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe an innovative learning activity for online RN-BSN students designed to foster advocacy for vulnerable populations. The Vulnerable Population Advocacy Assignment, included as a component of the online Population-Focused Nursing class, provides students with the opportunity to identify and develop an awareness of issues impacting vulnerable populations and to advocate for policy changes that will influence the health of individuals, families, and populations. RN-BSN students build on previous knowledge and skills in professional communication and advocacy as they develop a policy statement designed to address health disparities impacting local, national, and global populations. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Disasters and development: Part 2: understanding and exploiting disaster-development linkages.

PubMed

Stephenson, Rob S; DuFrane, Charles

2002-01-01

Disasters can impede the effectiveness of development resource allocation. The damage sustained from an event can be classified into four categories: (1) Loss of resources; (2) Interruption of programs and switching of crucial resources to other, shorter-term needs; (3) Negative impacts upon investment climates; and/or (4) Disruption of the non-formal sector (local businesses). Disasters have a particularly destructive economic impact in areas in which there are few alternatives for assets that are destroyed or in areas in which the resources already are at critical levels. Development processes can both increase and/or decrease the vulnerability of a society to hazards. There are dearly established linkages between poverty, marginalization, over-population, and vulnerability. To a large extent, vulnerability derives from poverty. The poor are more likely to live in vulnerable areas (slopes prone to landslides, flood plains, marginal agricultural land), have difficulty accessing education and information, have fewer assets to invest in resources to reduce vulnerability, and are more prone to become malnourished and have chronic illnesses that predispose them to injury and death. Development may be associated with the production of new hazards accepted by a society because the perceived benefits of the development project far exceed the relative risk associated with the project. Therefore, risk assessments must be part of any program planning and evaluation. Training and education are of critical importance in preventing increased vulnerability as a result of development strategies. Development also can progress in a manner that will result in mitigation of the impacts of an event on a given society (increase absorbing capacity and/or buffering capacity, elimination of hazards or the risk of them producing a disaster). Such mitigation measures can be either structural or nonstructural. There exists a wide range of options for incorporating mitigation measures in development projects. Two case studies provide exercises that incorporate the concepts provided in this discussion: (1) The 1985 earthquake in Mexico City; and (2) Agricultural development in northern Sudan.

Vulnerabilities of national parks in the American Midwest to climate and land use changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Shaver, David; Karstensen, Krista A.

2016-06-08

Many national parks in the American Midwest are surrounded by agricultural or urban areas or are in highly fragmented or rapidly changing landscapes. An environmental stressor is a physical, chemical, or biological condition that affects the functioning or productivity of species or ecosystems. Climate change is just one of many stressors on park natural resources; others include urbanization, land use change, air and water pollution, and so on. Understanding and comparing the relative vulnerability of a suite of parks to projected climate and land use changes is important for region-wide planning. A vulnerability assessment of 60 units in the 13-state U.S. National Park Service Midwestern administrative region to climate and land use change used existing data from multiple sources. Assessment included three components: individual park exposure (5 metrics), sensitivity (5 metrics), and constraints to adaptive capacity (8 metrics) under 2 future climate scenarios. The three components were combined into an overall vulnerability score. Metrics were measures of existing or projected conditions within park boundaries, within 10-kilometer buffers surrounding parks, and within ecoregions that contain or intersect them. Data were normalized within the range of values for all assessed parks, resulting in high, medium, and low relative rankings for exposure, sensitivity, constraints to adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability. Results are consistent with assessments regarding patterns and rates of climate change nationwide but provide greater detail and relative risk for Midwestern parks. Park overall relative vulnerability did not differ between climate scenarios. Rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and constraints to adaptive capacity varied geographically and indicate regional conservation planning opportunities. The most important stressors for the most vulnerable Midwestern parks are those related to sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of the park) and constraints on adaptive capacity (characteristics of the surrounding landscape) rather than exposure to external forces, including climate change. Output will allow individual park managers to understand which metrics weigh most heavily in the overall vulnerability of their park and can be used for region-wide responses and resource allocation for adaptation efforts.

Vulnerability of ground water to contamination, northern Bexar County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Amy R.

2003-01-01

The Trinity aquifer, composed of Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks, largely controls the ground-water hydrology in the study area of northern Bexar County, Texas. Discharge from the Trinity aquifer recharges the downgradient, hydraulically connected Edwards aquifer one of the most permeable and productive aquifers in the Nation and the sole source of water for more than a million people in south-central Texas. The unconfined, karstic outcrop of the Edwards aquifer makes it particularly vulnerable to contamination resulting from urbanization that is spreading rapidly northward across an "environmentally sensitive" recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer and its upgradient "catchment area," composed mostly of the less permeable Trinity aquifer.A better understanding of the Trinity aquifer is needed to evaluate water-management decisions affecting the quality of water in both the Trinity and Edwards aquifers. A study was made, therefore, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System to assess northern Bexar County's vulnerability to ground-water contamination. The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in this area varies with the effects of five categories of natural features (hydrogeologic units, faults, caves and (or) sinkholes, slopes, and soils) that occur on the outcrop and in the shallow subcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone.Where faults affect the rates of recharge or discharge or the patterns of ground-water flow in the Glen Rose Limestone, they likewise affect the risk of water-quality degradation. Caves and sinkholes generally increase the vulnerability of ground water to contamination, especially where their occurrences are concentrated. The slope of land surface can affect the vulnerability of ground water by controlling where and how long a potential contaminant remains on the surface. Disregarding the exception of steep slopes which are assumed to have no soil cover the greater the slope, the less the risk of ground-water contamination. Because most soils in the study area are uniformly thin, they have only minimal effect on the vulnerability of ground water to contamination.The results of hydrogeologic mapping during the present study divide the outcrop of the Glen Rose Limestone into five mappable intervals, labeled (youngest to oldest) A through E. Of these intervals, only the middle (C) and the lowermost (E) generally provide appreciable permeability.The vulnerability assessment provided herein was determined by combining the presumed effects of selected natural features (with individual vulnerability ratings ranging from 0 through 35) using a grid-based, multilayer system of digital datasets and geographic information system analysis. The resulting vulnerability map comprises composite vulnerability ratings that range from 26 through 104. The relatively less vulnerable areas those containing no faults, sinkholes, or caves occupy about 92 percent of the study area. The most vulnerable areas are those containing both a fault and one or more caves. The distribution of the most vulnerable areas which trend from southwest to northeast, roughly parallel to the Balcones fault zone occur mainly where faults intersect caves.

Rapid Topographic Mapping Using TLS and UAV in a Beach-dune-wetland Environment: Case Study in Freeport, Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, J.; Wang, G.; Xiong, L.; Zhou, X.; England, E.

2017-12-01

Coastal regions are naturally vulnerable to impact from long-term coastal erosion and episodic coastal hazards caused by extreme weather events. Major geomorphic changes can occur within a few hours during storms. Prediction of storm impact, costal planning and resilience observation after natural events all require accurate and up-to-date topographic maps of coastal morphology. Thus, the ability to conduct rapid and high-resolution-high-accuracy topographic mapping is of critical importance for long-term coastal management and rapid response after natural hazard events. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) techniques have been frequently applied to beach and dune erosion studies and post hazard responses. However, TLS surveying is relatively slow and costly for rapid surveying. Furthermore, TLS surveying unavoidably retains gray areas that cannot be reached by laser pulses, particularly in wetland areas where lack of direct access in most cases. Aerial mapping using photogrammetry from images taken by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) has become a new technique for rapid topographic mapping. UAV photogrammetry mapping techniques provide the ability to map coastal features quickly, safely, inexpensively, on short notice and with minimal impact. The primary products from photogrammetry are point clouds similar to the LiDAR point clouds. However, a large number of ground control points (ground truth) are essential for obtaining high-accuracy UAV maps. The ground control points are often obtained by GPS survey simultaneously with the TLS survey in the field. The GPS survey could be a slow and arduous process in the field. This study aims to develop methods for acquiring a huge number of ground control points from TLS survey and validating point clouds obtained from photogrammetry with the TLS point clouds. A Rigel VZ-2000 TLS scanner was used for developing laser point clouds and a DJI Phantom 4 Pro UAV was used for acquiring images. The aerial images were processed with the Photogrammetry mapping software Agisoft PhotoScan. A workflow for conducting rapid TLS and UAV survey in the field and integrating point clouds obtained from TLS and UAV surveying will be introduced. Key words: UAV photogrammetry, ground control points, TLS, coastal morphology, topographic mapping

The Internet information infrastructure: Terrorist tool or architecture for information defense?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kadner, S.; Turpen, E.; Rees, B.

The Internet is a culmination of information age technologies and an agent of change. As with any infrastructure, dependency upon the so-called global information infrastructure creates vulnerabilities. Moreover, unlike physical infrastructures, the Internet is a multi-use technology. While information technologies, such as the Internet, can be utilized as a tool of terror, these same technologies can facilitate the implementation of solutions to mitigate the threat. In this vein, this paper analyzes the multifaceted nature of the Internet information infrastructure and argues that policymakers should concentrate on the solutions it provides rather than the vulnerabilities it creates. Minimizing risks and realizingmore » possibilities in the information age will require institutional activities that translate, exploit and convert information technologies into positive solutions. What follows is a discussion of the Internet information infrastructure as it relates to increasing vulnerabilities and positive potential. The following four applications of the Internet will be addressed: as the infrastructure for information competence; as a terrorist tool; as the terrorist`s target; and as an architecture for rapid response.« less

Evaluation of water resources system vulnerability based on co-operative co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit model under the DPSIR framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Su, X. H.; Wang, M. H.; Li, Z. Y.; Li, E. K.; Xu, X.

2017-08-01

Water resources vulnerability control management is essential because it is related to the benign evolution of socio-economic, environmental and water resources system. Research on water resources system vulnerability is helpful to realization of water resources sustainable utilization. In this study, the DPSIR framework of driving forces-pressure-state-impact-response was adopted to construct the evaluation index system of water resources system vulnerability. Then the co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit were used to establish evaluation model of water resources system vulnerability. Tengzhou City in Shandong Province was selected as a study area. The system vulnerability was analyzed in terms of driving forces, pressure, state, impact and response on the basis of the projection value calculated by the model. The results show that the five components all belong to vulnerability Grade II, the vulnerability degree of impact and state were higher than other components due to the fierce imbalance in supply-demand and the unsatisfied condition of water resources utilization. It is indicated that the influence of high speed socio-economic development and the overuse of the pesticides have already disturbed the benign development of water environment to some extents. While the indexes in response represented lower vulnerability degree than the other components. The results of the evaluation model are coincident with the status of water resources system in the study area, which indicates that the model is feasible and effective.

''Vulnerability'' in AIDS-Affected States: Rethinking Child Rights, Educational Institutions, and Development Paradigms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kendall, Nancy

2008-01-01

The article interrogates current international development constructs of childhood, rights, vulnerability, and schooling in light of the daily experiences of two Malawian children affected by HIV/AIDS. It aims to better understand how development efforts targeted at these children function in practice, and suggests that current development…

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

Regional vulnerability assessment, or ReVA, is an approach to place-based ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by the Office of Research and Development of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The assessment is done at the scale of EPA region...

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

2017-12-01

A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

Land Use, Livelihoods, Vulnerabilities, and Resilience in Coastal Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Ackerly, B.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.; Wilson, C.

2014-12-01

The densely populated, low-lying coast of Bangladesh is famously associated with vulnerability to sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. Simultaneously, land-use change has significantly altered local sediment transport, causing elevation loss and degradation of drainage. The rapid growth of shrimp aquaculture has also affected soil chemistry in former agricultural areas and the stock of riverine fisheries through intense larval harvesting. To understand the net impact of these environmental changes on the region's communities, it is necessary to examine interactions across scale - from externally driven large scale environmental change to smaller scale, but often more intense, local change - and also between the physical environment and social, political, and economic conditions. We report on a study of interactions between changing communities and changing environment in coastal Bangladesh, exploring the role of societal and physical factors in shaping the different outcomes and their effects on people's lives. Land reclamation projects in the 1960s surrounded intertidal islands with embankments. This allowed rice farming to expand, but also produced significant elevation loss, which rendered many islands vulnerable to waterlogging and flooding from storm surges. The advent of large-scale shrimp aquaculture added environmental, economic, social, and political stresses, but also brought much export revenue to a developing nation. Locally, attempts to remedy environmental stresses have produced mixed results, with similar measures succeeding in some communities and failing in others. In this context, we find that people are continually adapting to changing opportunities and constraints for food, housing, and income. Niches that support different livelihood activities emerge and dwindle, and their occupants' desires affect the political context. Understanding and successfully responding to the impacts of environmental change requires understanding not only the physical environment, but also the human livelihoods, interpersonal interactions, and human-environmental interactions within a socio-ecological system.

Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

PubMed

Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

2014-11-28

Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

Cognitive Vulnerability to Major Depression: View from the Intrinsic Network and Cross-network Interactions

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiang; Öngür, Dost; Auerbach, Randy P.; Yao, Shuqiao

2016-01-01

Abstract Although it is generally accepted that cognitive factors contribute to the pathogenesis of major depressive disorder (MDD), there are missing links between behavioral and biological models of depression. Nevertheless, research employing neuroimaging technologies has elucidated some of the neurobiological mechanisms related to cognitive-vulnerability factors, especially from a whole-brain, dynamic perspective. In this review, we integrate well-established cognitive-vulnerability factors for MDD and corresponding neural mechanisms in intrinsic networks using a dual-process framework. We propose that the dynamic alteration and imbalance among the intrinsic networks, both in the resting-state and the rest-task transition stages, contribute to the development of cognitive vulnerability and MDD. Specifically, we propose that abnormally increased resting-state default mode network (DMN) activity and connectivity (mainly in anterior DMN regions) contribute to the development of cognitive vulnerability. Furthermore, when subjects confront negative stimuli in the period of rest-to-task transition, the following three kinds of aberrant network interactions have been identified as facilitators of vulnerability and dysphoric mood, each through a different cognitive mechanism: DMN dominance over the central executive network (CEN), an impaired salience network–mediated switching between the DMN and CEN, and ineffective CEN modulation of the DMN. This focus on interrelated networks and brain-activity changes between rest and task states provides a neural-system perspective for future research on cognitive vulnerability and resilience, and may potentially guide the development of new intervention strategies for MDD. PMID:27148911

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand.

PubMed

Steckley, Marylynn; Doberstein, Brent

2011-07-01

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

AVQS: Attack Route-Based Vulnerability Quantification Scheme for Smart Grid

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyunwoo; Lee, Seokjun; Shon, Taeshik

2014-01-01

A smart grid is a large, consolidated electrical grid system that includes heterogeneous networks and systems. Based on the data, a smart grid system has a potential security threat in its network connectivity. To solve this problem, we develop and apply a novel scheme to measure the vulnerability in a smart grid domain. Vulnerability quantification can be the first step in security analysis because it can help prioritize the security problems. However, existing vulnerability quantification schemes are not suitable for smart grid because they do not consider network vulnerabilities. We propose a novel attack route-based vulnerability quantification scheme using a network vulnerability score and an end-to-end security score, depending on the specific smart grid network environment to calculate the vulnerability score for a particular attack route. To evaluate the proposed approach, we derive several attack scenarios from the advanced metering infrastructure domain. The experimental results of the proposed approach and the existing common vulnerability scoring system clearly show that we need to consider network connectivity for more optimized vulnerability quantification. PMID:25152923

An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

2017-10-17

The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.

An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations toImpacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ CE RL T R- 17 -2 5 Army Environmental Quality Technology An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army...Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations to Impacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species Matthew G. Hohmann...their suitability for informing BRAC-related evaluations. Three recently developed methods for assessing the vulnerability of Army installations to

Geologic framework and hydrogeologic characteristics of the Edwards aquifer outcrop (Barton Springs segment), northeastern Hays and southwestern Travis Counties, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Small, Ted A.; Hanson, John A.; Hauwert, Nico M.

1996-01-01

In the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards aquifer, the aquifer probably is most vulnerable to surface contamination in the rapidly urbanizing areas on the Edwards aquifer outcrop. Contamination can result from spills or leakage of hazardous materials; or runoff on the intensely faulted and fractured, karstic limestone outcrops characteristic of the recharge zone.

Improving xylem hydraulic conductivity measurements by correcting the error caused by passive water uptake.

PubMed

Torres-Ruiz, José M; Sperry, John S; Fernández, José E

2012-10-01

Xylem hydraulic conductivity (K) is typically defined as K = F/(P/L), where F is the flow rate through a xylem segment associated with an applied pressure gradient (P/L) along the segment. This definition assumes a linear flow-pressure relationship with a flow intercept (F(0)) of zero. While linearity is typically the case, there is often a non-zero F(0) that persists in the absence of leaks or evaporation and is caused by passive uptake of water by the sample. In this study, we determined the consequences of failing to account for non-zero F(0) for both K measurements and the use of K to estimate the vulnerability to xylem cavitation. We generated vulnerability curves for olive root samples (Olea europaea) by the centrifuge technique, measuring a maximally accurate reference K(ref) as the slope of a four-point F vs P/L relationship. The K(ref) was compared with three more rapid ways of estimating K. When F(0) was assumed to be zero, K was significantly under-estimated (average of -81.4 ± 4.7%), especially when K(ref) was low. Vulnerability curves derived from these under-estimated K values overestimated the vulnerability to cavitation. When non-zero F(0) was taken into account, whether it was measured or estimated, more accurate K values (relative to K(ref)) were obtained, and vulnerability curves indicated greater resistance to cavitation. We recommend accounting for non-zero F(0) for obtaining accurate estimates of K and cavitation resistance in hydraulic studies. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

Factors affecting public-supply well vulnerability in two karst aquifers.

PubMed

Musgrove, MaryLynn; Katz, Brian G; Fahlquist, Lynne S; Crandall, Christy A; Lindgren, Richard J

2014-09-01

Karst aquifers occur in a range of climatic and geologic settings. Nonetheless, they are commonly characterized by their vulnerability to water-quality impairment. Two karst aquifers, the Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas and the Upper Floridan aquifer in western Florida, were investigated to assess factors that control the movement of contaminants to public-supply wells (PSWs). The geochemistry of samples from a selected PSW or wellfield in each aquifer was compared with that from nearby monitoring wells and regional PSWs. Geochemistry results were integrated with age tracers, flow modeling, and depth-dependent data to refine aquifer conceptual models and to identify factors that affect contaminant movement to PSWs. The oxic Edwards aquifer is vertically well mixed at the selected PSW/wellfield, although regionally the aquifer is geochemically variable downdip. The mostly anoxic Upper Floridan aquifer is affected by denitrification and also is geochemically variable with depth. In spite of considerable differences in geology and hydrogeology, the two aquifers are similarly vulnerable to anthropogenic contamination. Vulnerability in studied PSWs in both aquifers is strongly influenced by rapid karst flowpaths and the dominance of young (<10 years) groundwater. Vulnerability was demonstrated by the frequent detection of similar constituents of concern in both aquifers (nitrate, atrazine, deethylatrazine, tetrachloroethene, and chloroform). Specific consideration of water-quality protection efforts, well construction and placement, and aquifer response times to land-use changes and contaminant loading are discussed, with implications for karst groundwater management. © 2014 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

Ecosystem services and emergent vulnerability in managed ecosystems: A geospatial decision-support tool

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Trista M. Patterson; F. Stuart Chapin III

2008-01-01

Managed ecosystems experience vulnerabilities when ecological resilience declines and key flows of ecosystem services become depleted or lost. Drivers of vulnerability often include local management actions in conjunction with other external, larger scale factors. To translate these concepts to management applications, we developed a conceptual model of feedbacks...

International Space Station: Meteoroid/Orbital Debris Survivability and Vulnerability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, Russell

2000-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the surviability and vulnerability of the International Space Station (ISS) from the threat posed by meteoroid and orbital debris. The topics include: (1) Space station natural and induced environments (2) Meteoroid and orbital debris threat definition (3) Requirement definition (4) Assessment methods (5) Shield development and (6) Component vulnerability

In Search of the Third Eye, When the Two Others Are Shamefacedly Shut? Comment on "Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development".

PubMed

Keygnaert, Ines

2016-02-11

Ivanova et al explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies in 4 countries. They adapted the EquiFrame of Amin and colleagues of 2011, to SRH vulnerable groups which we believe could now be used for analysis of national SRH polices beyond those 4 countries. Although we fully agree with the authors' two main findings that vulnerable groups and human rights' principles are not sufficiently integrated in SRH policies nor granted the possibility to participate in the process of development in those four countries, we do believe that these shortcomings are not limited to those countries only nor to the identified vulnerable groups either. We are convinced that the issue of SRH as such is still framed within a very limited logic for all with vulnerable groups being perceived as an extra threat or an extra burden. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

A Review of Intravascular Ultrasound–Based Multimodal Intravascular Imaging: The Synergistic Approach to Characterizing Vulnerable Plaques

PubMed Central

Ma, Teng; Zhou, Bill; Hsiai, Tzung K.; Shung, K. Kirk

2015-01-01

Catheter-based intravascular imaging modalities are being developed to visualize pathologies in coronary arteries, such as high-risk vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques known as thin-cap fibroatheroma, to guide therapeutic strategy at preventing heart attacks. Mounting evidences have shown three distinctive histopathological features—the presence of a thin fibrous cap, a lipid-rich necrotic core, and numerous infiltrating macrophages—are key markers of increased vulnerability in atherosclerotic plaques. To visualize these changes, the majority of catheter-based imaging modalities used intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) as the technical foundation and integrated emerging intravascular imaging techniques to enhance the characterization of vulnerable plaques. However, no current imaging technology is the unequivocal “gold standard” for the diagnosis of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques. Each intravascular imaging technology possesses its own unique features that yield valuable information although encumbered by inherent limitations not seen in other modalities. In this context, the aim of this review is to discuss current scientific innovations, technical challenges, and prospective strategies in the development of IVUS-based multi-modality intravascular imaging systems aimed at assessing atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability. PMID:26400676

A Systematic Review of Life Skill Development Through Sports Programs Serving Socially Vulnerable Youth.

PubMed

Hermens, Niels; Super, Sabina; Verkooijen, Kirsten T; Koelen, Maria A

2017-12-01

Despite the strong belief in sports programs as a setting in which socially vulnerable youth can develop life skills, no overview exists of life skill development in sports programs serving this youth group. Therefore, the present systematic review provides an overview of the evidence on life skill development in sports programs serving socially vulnerable youth and, insofar as it was investigated in the included studies, of the conditions conducive to life skill development in these sports programs. Potentially relevant studies published during 1990 to 2014 were identified by a search in 7 electronic databases. The search combined terms relating to (a) sport, (b) youth AND socially vulnerable, and (c) life skills. Eighteen of the 2,076 unique studies met the inclusion criteria. Each included study reported that at least 1 life skill improved in youth who participated in the studied sports program. Improvements in cognitive and social life skills were more frequently reported than were improvements in emotional life skills. Only a few of the included studies investigated the conditions in the studied sports programs that made these programs conducive to life skill development. Sports programs have the potential to make a difference in the life skill development of socially vulnerable youth. This conclusion needs to be treated with some caution, because the studies experienced many challenges in reducing the risk for bias. Several alternative research strategies are suggested for future studies in this field.

A pragmatic analysis of vulnerability in clinical research.

PubMed

Wendler, David

2017-09-01

Identifying which subjects are vulnerable, and implementing safeguards to protect them, is widely regarded as essential to clinical research. Commentators have endorsed a number of responses to these challenges and have thereby made significant progress in understanding vulnerability in clinical research. At the same time, this literature points to a central contradiction which calls into question its potential to protect vulnerable subjects in practice. Specifically, analysis suggests that all human subjects are vulnerable and vulnerability in clinical research is comparative and context dependent, in the sense that individuals are vulnerable relative to others and in some contexts only. Yet, if everyone is vulnerable, there seems to be no point in citing the vulnerability of some individuals. Moreover, the conclusion that everyone is vulnerable seems inconsistent with the claims that vulnerability is comparative and context dependent, raising concern over whether it will be possible to develop a comprehensive account of vulnerability that is internally consistent. The solution to this dilemma lies in recognition of the fact that the practical significance of claims regarding vulnerability depends on the context in which they are used. The claims that appear to lead to the central contradiction are in fact accurate conclusions that follow from different uses of the term 'vulnerability'. The present manuscript describes this 'pragmatic' approach to vulnerability in clinical research and considers its implications for ensuring that subjects receive appropriate protection. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL DATA: METHODS EVALUATION WITH REGARD TO DATA ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities at a regional scale. An initial effort within this research program has been to develop and evaluate methods to synthesize ...

Supporting secure programming in web applications through interactive static analysis

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jun; Xie, Jing; Lipford, Heather Richter; Chu, Bill

2013-01-01

Many security incidents are caused by software developers’ failure to adhere to secure programming practices. Static analysis tools have been used to detect software vulnerabilities. However, their wide usage by developers is limited by the special training required to write rules customized to application-specific logic. Our approach is interactive static analysis, to integrate static analysis into Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and provide in-situ secure programming support to help developers prevent vulnerabilities during code construction. No additional training is required nor are there any assumptions on ways programs are built. Our work is motivated in part by the observation that many vulnerabilities are introduced due to failure to practice secure programming by knowledgeable developers. We implemented a prototype interactive static analysis tool as a plug-in for Java in Eclipse. Our technical evaluation of our prototype detected multiple zero-day vulnerabilities in a large open source project. Our evaluations also suggest that false positives may be limited to a very small class of use cases. PMID:25685513

Ground-water vulnerability to nitrate contamination in the mid-atlantic region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greene, Earl A.; LaMotte, Andrew E.; Cullinan, Kerri-Ann; Smith, Elizabeth R.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s (USEPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has developed a set of statistical tools to support regional-scale, integrated ecological risk-assessment studies. One of these tools, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is used with available water-quality data obtained from USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) and other studies in association with land cover, geology, soils, and other geographic data to develop logistic-regression equations that predict the vulnerability of ground water to nitrate concentrations exceeding specified thresholds in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The models were developed and applied to produce spatial probability maps showing the likelihood of elevated concentrations of nitrate in the region. These maps can be used to identify areas that currently are at risk and help identify areas where ground water has been affected by human activities. This information can be used by regional and local water managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in these vulnerable areas.

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

Is There a Universal Understanding of Vulnerability? Experiences with Russian and Romanian Trainees in Research Ethics

PubMed Central

Loue, Sana; Loff, Bebe

2014-01-01

Vulnerability of participants in research and the provision of special protections for vulnerable research participants are key concepts in research ethics. Despite international consensus requiring special protections for vulnerable research participants, both the concept of vulnerability and the nature and adequacy of strategies to reduce vulnerability remain vague and, consequently, are subject to varying interpretations. We report on observations of the challenges faced in understanding this key concept by 20 Russian and Romanian trainees participating in a one-year M.A. training program in research ethics from 2000 through 2011. We describe how trainees’ understanding of and appreciation for the need for special protections of vulnerable research participants was nurtured. This paper is part of a collection of papers analyzing the Fogarty International Center's International Research Ethics Education and Curriculum Development program. PMID:24384513

Sanitary protection zoning based on time-dependent vulnerability assessment model - case examples at two different type of aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Živanović, Vladimir; Jemcov, Igor; Dragišić, Veselin; Atanacković, Nebojša

2017-04-01

Delineation of sanitary protection zones of groundwater source is a comprehensive and multidisciplinary task. Uniform methodology for protection zoning for various type of aquifers is not established. Currently applied methods mostly rely on horizontal groundwater travel time toward the tapping structure. On the other hand, groundwater vulnerability assessment methods evaluate the protective function of unsaturated zone as an important part of groundwater source protection. In some particular cases surface flow might also be important, because of rapid transfer of contaminants toward the zones with intense infiltration. For delineation of sanitary protection zones three major components should be analysed: vertical travel time through unsaturated zone, horizontal travel time through saturated zone and surface water travel time toward intense infiltration zones. Integrating the aforementioned components into one time-dependent model represents a basis of presented method for delineation of groundwater source protection zones in rocks and sediments of different porosity. The proposed model comprises of travel time components of surface water, as well as groundwater (horizontal and vertical component). The results obtained using the model, represent the groundwater vulnerability as the sum of the surface and groundwater travel time and corresponds to the travel time of potential contaminants from the ground surface to the tapping structure. This vulnerability assessment approach do not consider contaminant properties (intrinsic vulnerability) although it can be easily improved for evaluating the specific groundwater vulnerability. This concept of the sanitary protection zones was applied at two different type of aquifers: karstic aquifer of catchment area of Blederija springs and "Beli Timok" source of intergranular shallow aquifer. The first one represents a typical karst hydrogeological system with part of the catchment with allogenic recharge, and the second one, the groundwater source within shallow intergranular alluvial aquifer, dominantly recharged by river bank filtration. For sanitary protection zones delineation, the applied method has shown the importance of introducing all travel time components equally. In the case of the karstic source, the importance of the surface flow toward ponor zones has been emphasized, as a consequence of rapid travel time of water in relation to diffuse infiltration from autogenic part. When it comes to the shallow intergranular aquifer, the character of the unsaturated zone gets more prominent role in the source protection, as important buffer of the vertical movement downward. The applicability of proposed method has been shown regardless of the type of the aquifer, and at the same time intelligible results of the delineated sanitary protection zones are possible to validate with various methods. Key words: groundwater protection zoning, time dependent model, karst aquifer, intergranular aquifer, groundwater source protection

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

[Development and validation of the Family Vulnerability Index to Disability and Dependence (FVI-DD)].

PubMed

Amendola, Fernanda; Alvarenga, Márcia Regina Martins; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Oliveira, Maria Amélia de Campos

2014-02-01

This exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional, and quantitative study aimed to develop and validate an index of family vulnerability to disability and dependence (FVI-DD). This study was adapted from the Family Development Index, with the addition of social and health indicators of disability and dependence. The instrument was applied to 248 families in the city of Sao Paulo, followed by exploratory factor analysis. Factor validation was performed using the concurrent and discriminant validity of the Lawton scale and Katz Index. The descriptive level adopted for the study was p < 0.05. The final vulnerability index comprised 50 questions classified into seven factors contemplating social and health dimensions, and this index exhibited good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.82). FVI-DD was validated using both the Lawton scale and Katz Index. We conclude that FVI-DD can accurately and reliably assess family vulnerability to disability and dependence.

Relationship between the neighbourhood built environment and early child development.

PubMed

Christian, Hayley; Ball, Stephen J; Zubrick, Stephen R; Brinkman, Sally; Turrell, Gavin; Boruff, Bryan; Foster, Sarah

2017-11-01

The relationship between features of the neighbourhood built environment and early child development was investigated using area-level data from the Australian Early Development Census. Overall 9.0% of children were developmentally vulnerable on the Physical Health and Well-being domain, 8.1% on the Social Competence domain and 8.1% on the Emotional Maturity domain. After adjustment for socio-demographic factors, Local Communities with the highest quintile of home yard space had significantly lower odds of developmental vulnerability on the Emotional Maturity domain. Residing in a Local Community with fewer main roads was associated with a decrease in the proportion of children developmentally vulnerable on the Social Competence domain. Overall, sociodemographic factors were more important than aspects of the neighbourhood physical environment for explaining variation between Local Communities in the developmental vulnerability of children. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Carvalhaes, Thomaz M.

Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act asmore » an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.« less

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.« less

Identifying Vulnerabilities and Hardening Attack Graphs for Networked Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saha, Sudip; Vullinati, Anil K.; Halappanavar, Mahantesh

We investigate efficient security control methods for protecting against vulnerabilities in networked systems. A large number of interdependent vulnerabilities typically exist in the computing nodes of a cyber-system; as vulnerabilities get exploited, starting from low level ones, they open up the doors to more critical vulnerabilities. These cannot be understood just by a topological analysis of the network, and we use the attack graph abstraction of Dewri et al. to study these problems. In contrast to earlier approaches based on heuristics and evolutionary algorithms, we study rigorous methods for quantifying the inherent vulnerability and hardening cost for the system. Wemore » develop algorithms with provable approximation guarantees, and evaluate them for real and synthetic attack graphs.« less

Distinct genecological patterns in seedlings of Norway spruce and silver fir from a mountainous landscape.

PubMed

Frank, Aline; Sperisen, Christoph; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Brang, Peter; Walthert, Lorenz; St Clair, John Bradley; Heiri, Caroline

2017-01-01

Understanding the genecology of forest trees is critical for gene conservation, for predicting the effects of climate change and climate change adaptation, and for successful reforestation. Although common genecological patterns have emerged, species-specific details are also important. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change? Which are the most important adaptive traits and environmental drivers of natural selection? Even though species have been classified as adaptive specialists vs. adaptive generalists, large-scale studies comparing different species in the same experiment are rare. We studied the genecology of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba), two co-occurring but ecologically distinct European conifers in Central Europe. For each species, we collected seed from more than 90 populations across Switzerland, established a seedling common-garden test, and developed genecological models that associate population variation in seedling growth and phenology to climate, soil properties, and site water balance. Population differentiation and associations between seedling traits and environmental variables were much stronger for Norway spruce than for silver fir, and stronger for seedling height growth than for bud phenology. In Norway spruce, height growth and second flushing were strongly associated with temperature and elevation, with seedlings from the lowlands being taller and more prone to second flush than seedlings from the Alps. In silver fir, height growth was more weakly associated with temperature and elevation, but also associated with water availability. Soil characteristics explained little population variation in both species. We conclude that Norway spruce has become an adaptive specialist because trade-offs between rapid juvenile growth and frost avoidance have subjected it to strong diversifying natural selection based on temperature. In contrast, because silver fir has a more conservative growth habit, it has evolved to become an adaptive generalist. This study demonstrates that co-occurring tree species can develop very different adaptive strategies under identical environmental conditions, and suggests that Norway spruce might be more vulnerable to future maladaptation due to rapid climate change than silver fir. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Comparison of Historically Severe Droughts and the Vulnerability of Agroecosystems in Mid-Continent USA: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, C.; Rippey, B.

2016-12-01

Extreme climatic events, drought, flooding, severe storms, tropical cyclones and winter storms have cost the USA billions of dollars. Although among major natural disasters in the last 100 years, severe drought occurrences are lower in terms of discrete events than that for other extreme events, the average cost per drought event exceeds all but those of severe storms and tropical cyclones and has significantly impacted the US agroecosystems upon which much of the domestic and export food markets depend1. The impacts from the 2012, 1988, and 1950's droughts are compared with the effects on cropland in the Mid-Continent US. Drought severity in 2012 and in 1988 were similar in terms of economic agricultural loss, 40 and 31 billion in cost-adjusted dollars, respectively. The 2012 drought covered a geographic areal extent similar to that of an earlier drought in the 1950's; roughly 2/3 of the central USA was impacted. However, the 2012 drought developed relatively rapidly in less than a year whereas the drought of the 1950's was marked by multiple years of extreme heat and lack of precipitation. Each of these severe droughts has resulted in significant losses, but the 2012 drought, while costly, could have been a larger economic disaster had the same conditions occurred in the 1950's or 1988. Investment in new technology, improvements in irrigation efficiency and advanced drainage systems, targeted soil conservation practices, and flexibility to adapt to conditions have improved the resilience of agroecosystems to drought in the intervening years. Droughts continue to occur, so a better understanding of climate and available climate services along with sustained investment in new technology will improve drought tolerance. The recent establishment of USDA Regional Climate Hubs to translate and deliver science-based, region-specific information for individual natural resource managers will enable climate-smart decision-making. Implementation is now possible at scales appropriate to identify regional and potentially local vulnerabilities and rapidly assess needs and capabilities. Downscaled climate projections developed by USDA partners and tailored to regional needs will become essential tools for future drought resilience. 1. Data trends derived from www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats

Microwave Sterilization and Depyrogenation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akse, James R.; Dahl, Roger W.; Wheeler, Richard R., Jr.

2009-01-01

A fully functional, microgravity-compatible microwave sterilization and depyrogenation system (MSDS) prototype was developed that is capable of producing medical-grade water (MGW) without expendable supplies, using NASA potable water that currently is available aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and will be available for Lunar and planetary missions in the future. The microwave- based, continuous MSDS efficiently couples microwaves to a single-phase, pressurized, flowing water stream that is rapidly heated above 150 C. Under these conditions, water is rapidly sterilized. Endotoxins, significant biological toxins that originate from the cell walls of gram-negative bacteria and which represent another defining MGW requirement, are also deactivated (i.e., depyrogenated) albeit more slowly, with such deactivation representing a more difficult challenge than sterilization. Several innovations culminated in the successful MSDS prototype design. The most significant is the antenna-directed microwave heating of a water stream flowing through a microwave sterilization chamber (MSC). Novel antenna designs were developed to increase microwave transmission efficiency. These improvements resulted in greater than 95-percent absorption of incident microwaves. In addition, incorporation of recuperative heat exchangers (RHxs) in the design reduced the microwave power required to heat a water stream flowing at 15 mL/min to 170 C to only 50 W. Further improvements in energy efficiency involved the employment of a second antenna to redirect reflected microwaves back into the MSC, eliminating the need for a water load and simplifying MSDS design. A quick connect (QC) is another innovation that can be sterilized and depyrogenated at temperature, and then cooled using a unique flow design, allowing collection of MGW at atmospheric pressure and 80 C. The final innovation was the use of in-line mixers incorporated in the flow path to disrupt laminar flow and increase contact time at a given flow rate. These technologies can be employed in small-scale systems for efficient production of MGW in the laboratory or in a range of larger systems that meet various industrial requirements. The microwave antennas can also be adapted to selectively sterilize vulnerable connections to ultra-pure water production facilities or biologically vulnerable systems where microorganisms may intrude.

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore, plateau region and upper part of mountain to plateau region is vulnerable region and active steps should be taken by government to strengthen adaptive capabilities of farmers and nomads. Government relief should shift from improvement of natural assets to improvement of human assets and financial assets, such as technique training, hospitalization insurance, animal disease prevention and treatment, low interest or interest-free loan, restoring gazing areas to grassland in black beach, restoring other degraded pastures.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION: EVALUATION OF INTEGRATION METHODS AND ASSESSMENTS RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes methods for quantitative regional assessment developed by the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program. The goal of ReVA is to develop regional-scale assessments of the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated envir...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA): TARGETING RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIONS AND PROVIDING OPTIONS FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is an approach to regional scale, priority-setting assessment being developed by EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). ReVA will effectively informs decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and unc...

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

2016-01-01

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of “hotspots” exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

A place-based model for assessing the coherence of the flash floods and socio-economic vulnerability across the Contiguous United States (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, S.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Understanding socio-economic characteristics involving natural hazards potential, vulnerability, and resilience is necessary to address the damages to economy and loss of life from extreme natural hazards. The vulnerability to flash floods is dependent on both biophysical and socio-economic factors. Although the biophysical characteristics (e.g. climate, vegetation, and land use) are informative and useful for predicting spatial and temporal extent of flash floods, they have minimal bearing on predicting when and where flash floods are likely to influence people or damage valuable assets and resources. The socio-economic factors determine spatial and temporal scales of the regions affected by flash floods. In this study, we quantify the socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). A socio-economic vulnerability index was developed, employing Bayesian principal components for each state in the CONUS. For this purpose, extensive sets of social and economic variables from US Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis were used. We developed maps presenting the coincidence of socio-economic vulnerability and the flash floods records. This product can help inform flash flood prevention, mitigation and recovery planning, as well as reducing the flash flood hazards affecting vulnerable places and population.

Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

2016-11-15

Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

Drivers and Dynamics of Global Environmental Change in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewitt, Graham; Munishi, Subira; Kunz, Richard; Viola, Paula

2010-05-01

Africa's potential to provide food, fuel, fibre and fodder for future global food and energy security has made it a target for a myriad investors from developed and developing countries alike. In many places, land grants and purchases have led to the establishment of huge monoculture production areas for food, fuel, fibre (maize, sugar cane, jatropha, plantation forestry etc) often preceded by deforestation and large scale utilisation and modification of available water resources. This coupled with the likelihood of rapid urbanisation in Africa over the next forty years and associated impacts linked to the high concentrations of inhabitants utilising and ultimately degrading available natural resources (e.g. wood for charcoal; water quality) have made Africa's ecosystems and people amongst the most vulnerable to global environmental change. Key questions that arise are how available scientific knowledge can best be utilized to reduce this vulnerability, where key gaps in knowledge in understanding the inter-linkages between societal needs and Food- Fibre-Energy-Water supply exist and how to best address the necessary complexity of considering these at different spatial and temporal scales. Drawing on the Ecosystem Goods and Services approach, we present key messages from ongoing research activities in South Africa, Swaziland, Mozambique and Tanzania and report on progress in applying management tools and systems to support decision making in these areas where development needs are critical. We also highlight lessons drawn from situations where unintended consequences have resulted from well meaning or politically expedient initiatives linked to large donor or foreign investment schemes, such as "outgrower" programmes, and where major environmental damage and ultimately the permanent loss of productivity of some landscapes has occurred.

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing

2015-01-01

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Measuring cognitive vulnerability to depression: Development and validation of the cognitive style questionnaire

PubMed Central

Haeffel, Gerald J.; Gibb, Brandon E.; Metalsky, Gerald I.; Alloy, Lauren B.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Joiner, Thomas E.; Swendsen, Joel D.

2014-01-01

The Cognitive Style Questionnaire (CSQ) measures the cognitive vulnerability factor featured in the hopelessness theory of depression. The CSQ has been used in over 30 published studies since its inception, yet detailed information about the psychometric and validity properties of this instrument has yet to be published. In this article, we describe the development of the CSQ and review reliability and validity evidence. Findings to date using college samples, indicate that the CSQ is a reliable measure of cognitive vulnerability with a high degree of construct validity. PMID:18234405

Measuring cognitive vulnerability to depression: development and validation of the cognitive style questionnaire.

PubMed

Haeffel, Gerald J; Gibb, Brandon E; Metalsky, Gerald I; Alloy, Lauren B; Abramson, Lyn Y; Hankin, Benjamin L; Joiner, Thomas E; Swendsen, Joel D

2008-06-01

The Cognitive Style Questionnaire (CSQ) measures the cognitive vulnerability factor featured in the hopelessness theory of depression. The CSQ has been used in over 30 published studies since its inception, yet detailed information about the psychometric and validity properties of this instrument has yet to be published. In this article, we describe the development of the CSQ and review reliability and validity evidence. Findings to date using college samples, indicate that the CSQ is a reliable measure of cognitive vulnerability with a high degree of construct validity.

College Students' Ageist Behavior: The Role of Aging Knowledge and Perceived Vulnerability to Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stahl, Sarah T.; Metzger, Aaron

2013-01-01

This cross-sectional study examined the associations among perceived vulnerability to disease, aging knowledge, and ageism (positive and negative) in a sample of undergraduate students enrolled in a human development course (N = 649; M age = 19.94 years, SD = 2.84 years). Perceived vulnerability to disease and aging knowledge were associated with…

Places where wildfire potential and social vulnerability coincide in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Gabriel Wigtil; Roger B. Hammer; Jeffrey D. Kline; Miranda H. Mockrin; Susan I. Stewart; Daniel Roper; Volker C. Radeloff

2016-01-01

The hazards-of-place model posits that vulnerability to environmental hazards depends on both biophysical and social factors. Biophysical factors determine where wildfire potential is elevated, whereas social factors determine where and how people are affected by wildfire. We evaluated place vulnerability to wildfire hazards in the coterminous US. We developed...

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-01

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management. PMID:29342852

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-13

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.

Heat Vulnerability Index Mapping for Milwaukee and Wisconsin.

PubMed

Christenson, Megan; Geiger, Sarah Dee; Phillips, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ben; Losurdo, Giovanna; Anderson, Henry A

Extreme heat waves elevate the population's risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality, specifically for vulnerable groups such as older adults and young children. In this context, we developed 2 Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs), one for the state of Wisconsin and one for the Milwaukee metropolitan area. Through the creation of an HVI, state and local agencies will be able to use the indices as a planning tool for extreme heat events. Data used for the HVIs were grouped into 4 categories: (1) population density; (2) health factors; (3) demographic and socioeconomic factors; and (4) natural and built environment factors. These categories were mapped at the Census block group level. Unweighted z-score data were used to determine index scores, which were then mapped by quantiles ranging from "high" to "low" vulnerability. Statewide, Menominee County exhibited the highest vulnerability to extreme heat. Milwaukee HVI findings indicated high vulnerability in the city's inner core versus low vulnerability along the lakeshore. Visualization of vulnerability could help local public health agencies prepare for future extreme heat events.

Individual, occupational, and workplace correlates of occupational health and safety vulnerability in a sample of Canadian workers.

PubMed

Lay, A Morgan; Saunders, Ron; Lifshen, Marni; Breslin, Curtis; LaMontagne, Anthony; Tompa, Emile; Smith, Peter

2016-02-01

To describe OH&S vulnerability across a diverse sample of Canadian workers. A survey was administered to 1,835 workers employed more than 15 hrs/week in workplaces with at least five employees. Adjusted logistic models were fitted for three specific and one overall measure of workplace vulnerability developed based on hazard exposure and access to protective OH&S policies and procedures, awareness of employment rights and responsibilities, and workplace empowerment. More than one third of the sample experienced some OH&S vulnerability. The type and magnitude of vulnerability varied by labor market sub-group. Younger workers and those in smaller workplaces experienced significantly higher odds of multiple types of vulnerability. Temporary workers reported elevated odds of overall, awareness- and empowerment-related vulnerability, while respondents born outside of Canada had significantly higher odds of awareness vulnerability. Knowing how labor market sub-groups experience different types of vulnerability can inform better-tailored primary prevention interventions. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A model for the development of mothers' perceived vulnerability of preterm infants.

PubMed

Horwitz, Sarah McCue; Storfer-Isser, Amy; Kerker, Bonnie D; Lilo, Emily; Leibovitz, Ann; St John, Nick; Shaw, Richard J

2015-06-01

Some mothers of preterm infants continue to view them as vulnerable after their health has improved. These exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability lead to poor parent-child interactions and, subsequently, to adverse child outcomes. However, there is no theoretical model to explain why these exaggerated perceptions develop in only some mother-child dyads. Data for this study come from a randomized trial of an intervention to reduce distress in mothers of preterm infants. A total of 105 mothers older than 18 years of infants aged 25-34 weeks, weighing >600 g and with clinically significant anxiety, depression, or trauma symptoms, were recruited and randomized. Women were assessed at baseline, after intervention, and at 6 months after birth. The outcome for these analyses was perceptions of infant vulnerability as measured by the Vulnerable Baby Scale (VBS) at 6 months after birth. A theoretical model developed from the extant literature was tested using the MacArthur Mediator-Moderator Approach. A dysfunctional coping style, high depression, anxiety, or trauma symptoms in response to the preterm birth, and low social support were related to 6-month VBS scores. Maternal response to trauma was directly related to VBS, and an important precursor of maternal response to trauma was a dysfunctional coping style. This model suggests that maternal responses to trauma are critical in the formation of exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability as are dysfunctional coping styles and low social support. Women with these characteristics should be targeted for intervention to prevent poor parenting practices that result from exaggerated perceptions of vulnerability.

Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

The Role of Narcissistic Vulnerability in Predicting Adult Posttraumatic Symptoms from Childhood Sexual Abuse.

PubMed

Bachar, Eytan; Canetti, Laura; Hadar, Hilit; Baruch, Julia; Dor, Yehuda; Freedman, Sara

2015-10-01

The aim of the present study is to determine whether narcissistic vulnerability can aid in clarifying the debate regarding the relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adulthood adjustment to traumatic events. 157 survivors (mean age = 31.1, SD = 10.9) of a traumatic event (war activities and road and work accidents) were assessed 1 week, 1, and 4 months following the event. Of the 157 participants, 15 reported experiencing CSA, and 26 reported experiencing childhood physical abuse (CPA). In the first-week assessment, patients were administered the Narcissistic Vulnerability Scale (NVS) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In the follow-up assessments, subjects were interviewed on the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale. Narcissistic vulnerability was found, both in 1- and 4-month follow-ups, to increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CSA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their adult life, when exposed to other additional trauma. Narcissistic vulnerability, in both follow-ups, did not increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CPA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their life when exposed to other additional trauma. The NVS predicted the development of PTSD symptoms in the whole sample, both in the 1- and 4-month follow-ups, above and beyond the prediction of the BDI. In other words, narcissistic vulnerability can add additional information above and beyond general negative emotionality. In conclusion, it is recommended to take into consideration the interplay between CSA and the individual's narcissistic vulnerability when assessing the long term effects of CSA such as acute or chronic PTSD.

Construction of road network vulnerability evaluation index based on general travel cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Jun-qiang; Zhai, Jing; Li, Qian-wen; Zhao, Lin

2018-03-01

With the development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of her urban road network, the vulnerability of the urban road network has attracted increasing attention. Based on general travel cost, this work constructs the vulnerability evaluation index for the urban road network, and evaluates the vulnerability of the urban road network from the perspective of user generalised travel cost. Firstly, the generalised travel cost model is constructed based on vehicle cost, travel time, and traveller comfort. Then, the network efficiency index is selected as an evaluation index of vulnerability: the network efficiency index is composed of the traffic volume and the generalised travel cost, which are obtained from the equilibrium state of the network. In addition, the research analyses the influence of traffic capacity decrease, road section attribute value, and location of road section, on vulnerability. Finally, the vulnerability index is used to analyse the local area network of Harbin and verify its applicability.

Security Vulnerability Profiles of Mission Critical Software: Empirical Analysis of Security Related Bug Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goseva-Popstojanova, Katerina; Tyo, Jacob

2017-01-01

While some prior research work exists on characteristics of software faults (i.e., bugs) and failures, very little work has been published on analysis of software applications vulnerabilities. This paper aims to contribute towards filling that gap by presenting an empirical investigation of application vulnerabilities. The results are based on data extracted from issue tracking systems of two NASA missions. These data were organized in three datasets: Ground mission IVV issues, Flight mission IVV issues, and Flight mission Developers issues. In each dataset, we identified security related software bugs and classified them in specific vulnerability classes. Then, we created the security vulnerability profiles, i.e., determined where and when the security vulnerabilities were introduced and what were the dominating vulnerabilities classes. Our main findings include: (1) In IVV issues datasets the majority of vulnerabilities were code related and were introduced in the Implementation phase. (2) For all datasets, around 90 of the vulnerabilities were located in two to four subsystems. (3) Out of 21 primary classes, five dominated: Exception Management, Memory Access, Other, Risky Values, and Unused Entities. Together, they contributed from 80 to 90 of vulnerabilities in each dataset.

Social Capital and Vulnerability from the Family, Neighborhood, School, and Community Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Bonita; Le Menestrel, Suzanne M.

2013-01-01

This article reviews research and offers program examples for developing social capital in youth with a range of vulnerabilities: emotional, physical, social, and developmental. Protective factors provided by developing social capital at the individual level include access to support networks, transition to employment, and community connectedness.…

Development of a coastal dune vulnerability index for Mediterranean ecosystems: A useful tool for coastal managers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciccarelli, D.; Pinna, M. S.; Alquini, F.; Cogoni, D.; Ruocco, M.; Bacchetta, G.; Sarti, G.; Fenu, G.

2017-03-01

Coastal dune ecosystems have been severely degraded as a result of excessive natural resource exploitation, urbanisation, industrial growth, and worldwide tourism. Coastal management often requires the use of vulnerability indices to facilitate the decision-making process. The main objective of this study was to develop a Mediterranean dune vulnerability index (MDVI) for sandy coasts, starting from the existing dune vulnerability index (DVI) proposed by Garcia-Mora et al. (2001) related to the oceanic coasts. Given that the Mediterranean sandy coasts are quite different from the Atlantic coasts, several adjustments and integrations were introduced. Our proposed index is based on the following five main group of factors: geomorphological conditions of the dune systems (GCD), marine influence (MI), aeolian effect (AE), vegetation condition (VC), and human effect (HE), for a total of 51 variables derived (and adapted) from the bibliography or proposed for the first time in this study. For each coastal site, a total vulnerability index, ranging from 0 (very low vulnerability) to 1 (very high vulnerability), was calculated as the unweighted average of the five partial vulnerability indices. Index computation was applied to 23 coastal dune systems of two different contexts in Italy, i.e. peninsular and continental island territories representative of the W-Mediterranean Basin, in order to compare the dune systems with different geomorphology, shoreline dynamics, and human pressure. In particular, our research addressed the following two questions: (1) Which variables are the most critical for the Italian coastal systems? (2) How can the coastal dune vulnerability index be used to develop appropriate strategies of conservation and management for these ecosystems? Cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling separated the peninsular from the insular sites, both of which were characterised by low to moderate values of vulnerability (0.32 < MDVI < 0.49). The most critical factors for the coastal systems examined in this study were marine negative influence, low stabilising ability of vegetation, and human disturbance. Hence, coastal managers are encouraged to plan specific management actions such as protection of foredunes from marine factors (particularly erosion), to promote dune formation with the reintroduction of native dune builder species and to minimise human pressure where vulnerability depends on these variables.

A study on eco-environmental vulnerability of mining cities: a case study of Panzhihua city of Sichuan province in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Huaiyong; Xian, Wei; Yang, Wunian

2009-07-01

The large-scale and super-strength development of mineral resources in mining cities in long term has made great contributions to China's economic construction and development, but it has caused serious damage to the ecological environment even ecological imbalance at the same time because the neglect of the environmental impact even to the expense of the environment to some extent. In this study, according to the characteristics of mining cities, the scientific and practical eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation index system of mining cities had been established. Taking Panzhihua city of Sichuan province as an example, using remote sensing and GIS technology, applying various types of remote sensing image (TM, SPOT5, IKONOS) and Statistical data, the ecological environment evaluation data of mining cities was extracted effectively. For the non-linear relationship between the evaluation indexes and the degree of eco-environmental vulnerability in mining cities, this study innovative took the evaluation of eco-environmental vulnerability of the study area by using artificial neural network whose training used SCE-UA algorithm that well overcome the slow learning and difficult convergence of traditional neural network algorithm. The results of ecoenvironmental vulnerability evaluation of the study area were objective, reasonable and the credibility was high. The results showed that the area distribution of five eco-environmental vulnerability grade types was basically normal, and the overall ecological environment situation of Panzhihua city was in the middle level, the degree of eco-environmental vulnerability in the south was higher than the north, and mining activities were dominant factors to cause ecoenvironmental damage and eco-environmental Vulnerability. In this study, a comprehensive theory and technology system of regional eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation which included the establishment of eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation index system, processing of evaluation data and establishing of evaluation model. New ideas and methods had provided for eco-environmental vulnerability of mining cities.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, Aavudai; Kannan, Narayanan

2018-02-01

Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System's Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European's Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's framework (IPCC's); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the "breadbasket of the world"), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US.

Study of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using the DRASTIC method coupled with a geographic information system (GIS): application to groundwater Beni Amir, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouz, Najat; Boudhar, Abdelghani; Bachaoui, El Mostafa

2016-04-01

Fresh water is the condition of all life on Earth for its vital role in the survival of living beings and in the social, economic and technological development. The Groundwater, as the surface water, is increasingly threatened by agricultural and industrial pollution. In this respect, the groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution is a very valuable tool for resource protection, management of its quality and uses it in a sustainable way. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the study area, Beni Amir, located in the first irrigated perimeter of Morocco, Tadla, using the DRASTIC method (depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, Topography, impact of Vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity), and assessing the impact of each parameter on the DRASTIC vulnerability index by a sensitivity analysis. This study also highlights the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in assessing vulnerability. The Vulnerability index is calculated as the sum of product of ratings and weights assigned to each of the parameter DRASTIC. The results revealed four vulnerability classes, 7% of the study area has a high vulnerability, 31% are moderately vulnerable, 57% have a low vulnerability and 5% are of very low vulnerability.

Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

PubMed Central

Arokoyu, Samuel B.

2015-01-01

In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

Vulnerability to global environmental changes in Argentina: opportunities for upgrading regional water resources management strategies.

PubMed

Bereciartua, P J

2005-01-01

There is evidence of the increasing economic losses from extreme natural events during the last decades. These facts, thought to be triggered by environmental changes coupled with inefficient management and policies, highlight particularly exposed and vulnerable regions worldwide. Argentina faces several challenges associated with global environmental change and climate variability, especially related to water resources management including extreme floods and droughts. At the same time, the country's production capacity (i.e. natural resource-based commodities) and future development opportunities are closely tied to the sustainable development of its natural resource endowments. Given that vulnerability is registered not only by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses), but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards, Argentina will need to improve its water management capacities to reduce its vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper presents the basic components of the vulnerability analysis and suggests how it can be used to define efficient water management options.

[Environmental, social, and roadway vulnerability in accidents involving transportation of hazardous products: a case study of the BR-101 highway between Osório and Torres in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil].

PubMed

Tinoco, Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo; Nodari, Christine Tessele; Pereira, Kimberllyn Rosa da Silva

2016-09-19

This study aimed to assess the environmental and social vulnerability and identify critical highway stretches for accidents involving transportation of hazardous products on the BR-101 highway between the cities of Osório and Torres in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The study's approach consisted of a multiple-criteria analysis combining highway safety analysis and environmental and social vulnerability analysis in the occurrence of accidents with hazardous products, plus cartographic analysis techniques. Thirty-eight kilometers of the highway showed high vulnerability, of which 8 kilometers with critical vulnerability, associated with bridges over rivers, water uptake points, a tunnel, environmental preservation areas, and an urban area. These stretches should be prioritized when developing action plans for accident mitigation and development of public policies for this highway. This proved to be an unprecedented approach when compared to existing studies and a potentially useful tool for decision-making in emergency operations.

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sethi, G.; Pierce, S. A.

2016-12-01

This research develops an index of vulnerability for Ugandan households using a variety of economic, social and environmental variables with two objectives. First, there is only a small body of research that measures household vulnerability. Given the stresses faced by households susceptible to water, environment, food, livelihood, energy, and health security concerns, it is critical that they be identified in order to make effective policy. We draw on the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework described by Ostrom (2009) and adapt the model developed by from Giupponi, Giove, and Giannini (2013) to develop a composite measure. Second, most indices in the literature are linear in nature, relying on simple weighted averages. In this research, we contrast the results obtained by a simple weighted average with those obtained by using the Choquet integral. The Choquet integral is a fuzzy measure, and is based on the generalization of the Lebesgue integral. Due to its non-additive nature, the Choquet integral offers a more general approach. Our results reveal that all households included in this study are highly vulnerable, and that vulnerability scores obtained by the fuzzy approach are significantly different from those obtained by using the simple weighted average (p = 9.46e-160).

Research Area 7.4: Identifying a Path Towards Rapid Discrimination of Infection Disease Outbreaks

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-15

content typing, rep-PCR, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, optical mapping, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (G. Gault et al., 2011; P...Tremlett, G, Pidd, 2011). This case demonstrates the vulnerability of our food supply and why unusual outbreaks involving endemic microbes must be taken as... food products to malevolent tampering, and the widespread international economic consequences that can occur even from limited product contamination

Coffee and chocolate in danger.

PubMed

Gross, Michael

2014-06-02

As a rapidly growing global consumer base appreciates the pleasures of coffee and chocolate and health warnings are being replaced by more encouraging sounds from medical experts, their supply is under threat from climate change, pests and financial problems. Coffee farmers in Central America, in particular, are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change, made worse by financial insecurity. Michael Gross reports. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Big Three: Our Greatest Security Risks and How to Address Them

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-06-01

with an increase in the vulnerability of what we must defend. The interconnection and interdependence of civilian populations grow as we expand...leeway for the national securily budget that is unlikely in the future. Richard Danzig 21 Support for America’s defense and foreign policy...Our strength is also our problem. Innovations that boldly exploit rapidly evolving technological opportunity are often impeded by an excessive

Restricted gene flow and local adaptation highlight the vulnerability of high-latitude reefs to rapid environmental change.

PubMed

Thomas, Luke; Kennington, W Jason; Evans, Richard D; Kendrick, Gary A; Stat, Michael

2017-06-01

Global climate change poses a serious threat to the future health of coral reef ecosystems. This calls for management strategies that are focused on maximizing the evolutionary potential of coral reefs. Fundamental to this is an accurate understanding of the spatial genetic structure in dominant reef-building coral species. In this study, we apply a genotyping-by-sequencing approach to investigate genome-wide patterns of genetic diversity, gene flow, and local adaptation in a reef-building coral, Pocillopora damicornis, across 10 degrees of latitude and a transition from temperate to tropical waters. We identified strong patterns of differentiation and reduced genetic diversity in high-latitude populations. In addition, genome-wide scans for selection identified a number of outlier loci putatively under directional selection with homology to proteins previously known to be involved in heat tolerance in corals and associated with processes such as photoprotection, protein degradation, and immunity. This study provides genomic evidence for both restricted gene flow and local adaptation in a widely distributed coral species, and highlights the potential vulnerability of leading-edge populations to rapid environmental change as they are locally adapted, reproductively isolated, and have reduced levels of genetic diversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk assessment using GIS: model for Glenwood Springs, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía-Navarro, Mario; Wohl, Ellen E.; Oaks, Sherry D.

1994-08-01

Glenwood Springs, Colorado, lies at the junction of the Roaring Fork and Colorado Rivers, surrounded by the steep peaks of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Large parts of the region have had intensive sheet erosion, debris flows, and hyperconcentrated floods triggered by landslides and slumps. The latter come from unstable slopes in the many tributary channels on the mountainsides, causing concentration of debris in channels and a large accumulation of sediment in colluvial wedges and debris fans that line the river valleys. Many of the landslide and debris-flow deposits exist in a state resembling suspended animation, ready to be destabilized by intense precipitation and/or seismic activity. During this century urban development in the Roaring Fork River valley has increased rapidly. The city of Glenwood Springs continues to expand over unstable debris fans without any construction of hazard mitigation structures. Since 1900, Glenwood Springs has had at least 21 damaging debris flows and floods; on July 24, 1977 a heavy thunderstorm spread a debris flow over more than 80 ha of the city. This paper presents a method that uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk in the Glenwood Springs area. The hazards evaluated include subsidence, rockfall, debris flows, and floods, and in this paper we focus on debris flows and subsidence. Information on topography, hydrology, precipitation, geomorphic processes, bedrock and surficial geology, structural geology, soils, vegetation, and land use, was processed for hazard assessment using a series of algorithms. ARC/INFO and GRASS GIS softwares were used to produce maps and tables in a format accessible to urban planners. After geological hazards were defined for the study area, we estimated the vulnerability ( Ve) of various elements for an event of intensity i. Risk is assessed as a function of hazard and vulnerability. We categorized the study area in 14 classes for planning procedures; 7 classes defined as areas suitable for human settlement, and 7 classes defined as unsuitable for building, and most effectively reserved for parks and forests.

Assessing Coupled Social Ecological Flood Vulnerability from Uttarakhand, India, to the State of New York with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.

2014-12-01

This talk describes the development of a web application to predict and communicate vulnerability to floods given publicly available data, disaster science, and geotech cloud capabilities. The proof of concept in Google Earth Engine API with initial testing on case studies in New York and Utterakhand India demonstrates the potential of highly parallelized cloud computing to model socio-ecological disaster vulnerability at high spatial and temporal resolution and in near real time. Cloud computing facilitates statistical modeling with variables derived from large public social and ecological data sets, including census data, nighttime lights (NTL), and World Pop to derive social parameters together with elevation, satellite imagery, rainfall, and observed flood data from Dartmouth Flood Observatory to derive biophysical parameters. While more traditional, physically based hydrological models that rely on flow algorithms and numerical methods are currently unavailable in parallelized computing platforms like Google Earth Engine, there is high potential to explore "data driven" modeling that trades physics for statistics in a parallelized environment. A data driven approach to flood modeling with geographically weighted logistic regression has been initially tested on Hurricane Irene in southeastern New York. Comparison of model results with observed flood data reveals a 97% accuracy of the model to predict flooded pixels. Testing on multiple storms is required to further validate this initial promising approach. A statistical social-ecological flood model that could produce rapid vulnerability assessments to predict who might require immediate evacuation and where could serve as an early warning. This type of early warning system would be especially relevant in data poor places lacking the computing power, high resolution data such as LiDar and stream gauges, or hydrologic expertise to run physically based models in real time. As the data-driven model presented relies on globally available data, the only real time data input required would be typical data from a weather service, e.g. precipitation or coarse resolution flood prediction. However, model uncertainty will vary locally depending upon the resolution and frequency of observed flood and socio-economic damage impact data.

China's water scarcity.

PubMed

Jiang, Yong

2009-08-01

China has been facing increasingly severe water scarcity, especially in the northern part of the country. China's water scarcity is characterized by insufficient local water resources as well as reduced water quality due to increasing pollution, both of which have caused serious impacts on society and the environment. Three factors contribute to China's water scarcity: uneven spatial distribution of water resources; rapid economic development and urbanization with a large and growing population; and poor water resource management. While it is nearly impossible to adjust the first two factors, improving water resource management represents a cost-effective option that can alleviate China's vulnerability to the issue. Improving water resource management is a long-term task requiring a holistic approach with constant effort. Water right institutions, market-based approaches, and capacity building should be the government's top priority to address the water scarcity issue.

Nano-Structured Solids and Heterogeneous Catalysts: Powerful Tools for the Reduction of CBRN Threats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidotti, M.; Rossodivita, A.; Ranghieri, M. C.

In the field of non-conventional CBRN weapons, the recent rapid development of nanotechnology and catalysis over nanosized solids provides innovative tools for the detection, protection and decontamination against these threats. By improving the efficiency of the countermeasures and by minimizing the negative effects of a deliberate use of CBRN agents, the practical application of the new technologies will readily represent a step forward in lowering the vulnerability of the civilian populations and in preventing the use of mass destruction weapons by terrorist groups or by `rogue states' supporting terrorists' activity. In such scenario, some relevant examples of nanosystems applied to the defense from non-conventional warfare agents will be here presented and commented. The key role of nanotechnology and heterogeneous catalysis for a multidisciplinary approach in counteracting CBRN threats will be highlighted too.

Network and data security design for telemedicine applications.

PubMed

Makris, L; Argiriou, N; Strintzis, M G

1997-01-01

The maturing of telecommunication technologies has ushered in a whole new era of applications and services in the health care environment. Teleworking, teleconsultation, mutlimedia conferencing and medical data distribution are rapidly becoming commonplace in clinical practice. As a result, a set of problems arises, concerning data confidentiality and integrity. Public computer networks, such as the emerging ISDN technology, are vulnerable to eavesdropping. Therefore it is important for telemedicine applications to employ end-to-end encryption mechanisms securing the data channel from unauthorized access of modification. We propose a network access and encryption system that is both economical and easily implemented for integration in developing or existing applications, using well-known and thoroughly tested encryption algorithms. Public-key cryptography is used for session-key exchange, while symmetric algorithms are used for bulk encryption. Mechanisms for session-key generation and exchange are also provided.

Free treatment, rapid malaria diagnostic tests and malaria village workers can hasten progress toward achieving the malaria related millennium development goals: the Médecins Sans Frontières experience from Chad, Sierra-Leone and Mali

PubMed Central

Tayler-Smith, Katie; Kociejowski, Alice; de Lamotte, Nadine; Gerard, Seco; Ponsar, Frederique; Philips, Mit; Zachariah, Rony

2011-01-01

Halving the burden of malaria by 2015 and ensuring that 80% of people with malaria receive treatment is among the health related targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Despite political momentum toward achieving this target, progress is slow and many with malaria (particularly in poor and rural communities in Africa) are still without access to effective treatment. Finding ways to improve access to anti-malarial treatment in Africa is essential to achieve the malaria related and other MDG targets. During its work in Chad, Sierra Leone and Mali in the period 2004 to 2008, Médecins Sans Frontières showed that it was possible to significantly improve access to effective malaria treatment through: i) the removal of health centre level user fees for essential healthcare for vulnerable population groups, ii) the introduction of free community based treatment for children using malaria village workers to diagnose and treat simple malaria in communities where geographical and financial barriers limited access to effective malaria care, iii) the improved diagnosis and treatment of malaria using rapid diagnosis tests and artemisinin based combination therapy, at both health facilities and in the community. This paper describes and discusses these strategies and their related impact. PMID:28299053

Delirium Associated With Fluoxetine Discontinuation: A Case Report.

PubMed

Fan, Kuang-Yuan; Liu, Hsing-Cheng

Withdrawal symptoms on selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) discontinuation have raised clinical attention increasingly. However, delirium is rarely reported in the SSRI discontinuation syndrome. We report a case of delirium developing after fluoxetine discontinuation in a 65-year-old female patient with major depressive disorder. She experienced psychotic depression with limited response to treatment of fluoxetine 40 mg/d and quetiapine 100 mg/d for 3 months. After admission, we tapered fluoxetine gradually in 5 days because of its limited effect. However, delirious pictures developed 2 days after we stopped fluoxetine. Three days later, we added back fluoxetine 10 mg/d. Her delirious features gradually improved, and the clinical presentation turned into previous psychotic depression state. We gradually increased the medication to fluoxetine 60 mg/d and olanzapine 20 mg/d in the following 3 weeks. Her psychotic symptoms decreased, and there has been no delirious picture noted thereafter. Delirium associated with fluoxetine discontinuation is a much rarer complication in SSRI discontinuation syndrome. The symptoms of SSRI discontinuation syndrome may be attributable to a rapid decrease in serotonin availability. In general, the shorter the half-life of any medication, the greater the likelihood patients will experience discontinuation symptoms. Genetic vulnerability might be a potential factor to explain that SSRI discontinuation syndrome also occurred rapidly in people taking long-half-life fluoxetine. The genetic polymorphisms of both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic pathways might be potentially associated with SSRI discontinuation syndrome.

The phenotypic variability in Rana temporaria decreases in response to drying habitats.

PubMed

Miramontes-Sequeiros, Luz Calia; Palanca-Castán, Nicolás; Caamaño-Chinchilla, Laura; Palanca-Soler, Antonio

2018-01-15

In this study, we evaluated the diversity of skin coloration as a proxy for phenotypic diversity. The European common frog (Rana temporaria) populations from the Southern slope of central Pyrenees lie at the limit of the species distribution in latitude and altitude. We analysed the relationship of skin color typology with different environmental variables and found a large decrease in skin type variety in frogs developing in temporary water bodies when compared to those developing in permanent water bodies. Our results show that our method can be used as a non-invasive way to study phenotypic diversity and suggest that adaptation to an early metamorphosis in a rapidly-drying habitat can have negative effects on adult phenotypic diversity. In light of these results, we argue that access to permanent water bodies is important to prevent loss of diversity in anuran populations and reduce their vulnerability to environmental impacts as well as pathogens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate: a review of threats and implications for conservation planning in Myanmar.

PubMed

Rao, Madhu; Saw Htun; Platt, Steven G; Tizard, Robert; Poole, Colin; Than Myint; Watson, James E M

2013-11-01

High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development-the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country's rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar's high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.

The Resilience Activation Framework: A conceptual model of how access to social resources promotes adaptation and rapid recovery in post-disaster settings

PubMed Central

Abramson, David M.; Grattan, Lynn M.; Mayer, Brian; Colten, Craig E.; Arosemena, Farah A.; Rung, Ariane; Lichtveld, Maureen

2014-01-01

A number of governmental agencies have called for enhancing citizen’s resilience as a means of preparing populations in advance of disasters, and as a counter-balance to social and individual vulnerabilities. This increasing scholarly, policy and programmatic interest in promoting individual and communal resilience presents a challenge to the research and practice communities: to develop a translational framework that can accommodate multi-disciplinary scientific perspectives into a single, applied model. The Resilience Activation Framework provides a basis for testing how access to social resources, such as formal and informal social support and help, promotes positive adaptation or reduced psychopathology among individuals and communities exposed to the acute collective stressors associated with disasters, whether manmade, natural, or technological in origin. Articulating the mechanisms by which access to social resources activate and sustain resilience capacities for optimal mental health outcomes post-disaster can lead to the development of effective preventive and early intervention programs. PMID:24870399

Automation of temperature control for large-array microwave surface applicators.

PubMed

Zhou, L; Fessenden, P

1993-01-01

An adaptive temperature control system has been developed for the microstrip antenna array applicators used for large area superficial hyperthermia. A recursive algorithm which allows rapid power updating even for large antenna arrays and accounts for coupling between neighbouring antennas has been developed, based on a first-order difference equation model. Surface temperatures from the centre of each antenna element are the primary feedback information. Also used are temperatures from additional surface probes placed within the treatment field to protect locations vulnerable to excessive temperatures. In addition, temperatures at depth are observed by mappers and utilized to restrain power to reduce treatment-related complications. Experiments on a tissue-equivalent phantom capable of dynamic differential cooling have successfully verified this temperature control system. The results with the 25 (5 x 5) antenna array have demonstrated that during dynamic water cooling changes and other experimentally simulated disturbances, the controlled temperatures converge to desired temperature patterns with a precision close to the resolution of the thermometry system (0.1 degree C).

Contributions of GABA to alcohol responsivity during adolescence: Insights from preclinical and clinical studies

PubMed Central

Silveri, Marisa M.

2015-01-01

There is a considerable body of literature demonstrating that adolescence is a unique age period, which includes rapid and dramatic maturation of behavioral, cognitive, hormonal and neurobiological systems. Most notably, adolescence is also a period of unique responsiveness to alcohol effects, with both hyposensitivity and hypersensitivity observed to the various effects of alcohol. Multiple neurotransmitter systems are undergoing fine-tuning during this critical period of brain development, including those that contribute to the rewarding effects of drugs of abuse. The role of developmental maturation of the γ-amino-butyric acid (GABA) system, however, has received less attention in contributing to age-specific alcohol sensitivities. This review integrates GABA findings from human magnetic resonance spectroscopy studies as they may translate to understanding adolescent-specific responsiveness to alcohol effects. Better understanding of the vulnerability of the GABA system both during adolescent development, and in psychiatric conditions that include alcohol dependence, could point to a putative mechanism, boosting brain GABA, that may have increased effectiveness for treating alcohol abuse disorders. PMID:24631274

The resilience activation framework: a conceptual model of how access to social resources promotes adaptation and rapid recovery in post-disaster settings.

PubMed

Abramson, David M; Grattan, Lynn M; Mayer, Brian; Colten, Craig E; Arosemena, Farah A; Bedimo-Rung, Ariane; Lichtveld, Maureen

2015-01-01

A number of governmental agencies have called for enhancing citizens' resilience as a means of preparing populations in advance of disasters, and as a counterbalance to social and individual vulnerabilities. This increasing scholarly, policy, and programmatic interest in promoting individual and communal resilience presents a challenge to the research and practice communities: to develop a translational framework that can accommodate multidisciplinary scientific perspectives into a single, applied model. The Resilience Activation Framework provides a basis for testing how access to social resources, such as formal and informal social support and help, promotes positive adaptation or reduced psychopathology among individuals and communities exposed to the acute collective stressors associated with disasters, whether human-made, natural, or technological in origin. Articulating the mechanisms by which access to social resources activate and sustain resilience capacities for optimal mental health outcomes post-disaster can lead to the development of effective preventive and early intervention programs.

Lifestyle Drugs: Concept and Impact on Society

PubMed Central

Rahman, S. Z.; Gupta, V.; Sukhlecha, Anupama; Khunte, Y.

2010-01-01

Lifestyle has changed from being an indicator of the overall well being of an individual to a cause of disease and now “lifestyle” has itself become an object of medical attention. Alcohol has been used enormously as one of the oldest ‘lifestyle’ drugs, and currently sildenafil citrate (Viagra), the drug of choice for erectile dysfunction, exemplifies a turning point in the era of modern lifestyle drugs. This drug has transformed the lifestyles of millions and greatly increased the revenue of many pharmaceutical companies. With the Indian economy growing rapidly at an annual rate of 8-9%, a new era of drug discovery and development coupled with an enormous increase in the marketing of new drugs is being seen. This has certainly made the Indian public vulnerable to issues related to lifestyle drugs. There is a need to study this concept deeply and the impact of these drugs on Indian society, particularly since this topic has already been the centre of many discussions in other developed nations. PMID:21218048

Effects of Maternal Self-Concept, Parity, and Marital Status on Development of the Vulnerable Child Syndrome.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christensen, M. J.; And Others

A total of 130 mother-infant pairs participated in a study of the relation of maternal psychological and demographic variables to the vulnerable child syndrome, a condition in which parents persist in viewing their children as vulnerable following recovery from a serious medical complication. The following hypotheses were tested: (1) mothers who…

Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation.

PubMed

Huey, Raymond B; Kearney, Michael R; Krockenberger, Andrew; Holtum, Joseph A M; Jess, Mellissa; Williams, Stephen E

2012-06-19

A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.

Empirical Estimates of 0Day Vulnerabilities in Control Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Sean M. McBride

2009-01-01

We define a 0Day vulnerability to be any vulnerability, in deployed software, which has been discovered by at least one person but has not yet been publicly announced or patched. These 0Day vulnerabilities are of particular interest when assessing the risk to well managed control systems which have already effectively mitigated the publicly known vulnerabilities. In these well managed systems the risk contribution from 0Days will have proportionally increased. To aid understanding of how great a risk 0Days may pose to control systems, an estimate of how many are in existence is needed. Consequently, using the 0Day definition given above,more » we developed and applied a method for estimating how many 0Day vulnerabilities are in existence on any given day. The estimate is made by: empirically characterizing the distribution of the lifespans, measured in days, of 0Day vulnerabilities; determining the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day; and applying a novel method for estimating the number of 0Day vulnerabilities in existence on any given day using the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day and the previously derived distribution of 0Day lifespans. The method was first applied to a general set of software applications by analyzing the 0Day lifespans of 491 software vulnerabilities and using the daily rate of vulnerability announcements in the National Vulnerability Database. This led to a conservative estimate that in the worst year there were, on average, 2500 0Day software related vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. Using a smaller but intriguing set of 15 0Day software vulnerability lifespans representing the actual time from discovery to public disclosure, we then made a more aggressive estimate. In this case, we estimated that in the worst year there were, on average, 4500 0Day software vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. We then proceeded to identify the subset of software applications likely to be used in some control systems, analyzed the associated subset of vulnerabilities, and characterized their lifespans. Using the previously developed method of analysis, we very conservatively estimated 250 control system related 0Day vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. While reasonable, this first order estimate for control systems is probably far more conservative than those made for general software systems since the estimate did not include vulnerabilities unique to control system specific components. These control system specific vulnerabilities were unable to be included in the estimate for a variety of reasons with the most problematic being that the public announcement of unique control system vulnerabilities is very sparse. Consequently, with the intent to improve the above 0Day estimate for control systems, we first identified the additional, unique to control systems, vulnerability estimation constraints and then investigated new mechanisms which may be useful for estimating the number of unique 0Day software vulnerabilities found in control system components. We proceeded to identify a number of new mechanisms and approaches for estimating and incorporating control system specific vulnerabilities into an improved 0Day estimation method. These new mechanisms and approaches appear promising and will be more rigorously evaluated during the course of the next year.« less

[Health vulnerability mapping in the Community of Madrid (Spain)].

PubMed

Ramasco-Gutiérrez, Milagros; Heras-Mosteiro, Julio; Garabato-González, Sonsoles; Aránguez-Ruiz, Emiliano; Aguirre Martín-Gil, Ramón

The Public Health General Directorate of Madrid has developed a health vulnerability mapping methodology to assist regional social health teams in health planning, prioritisation and intervention based on a model of social determinants of health and an equity approach. This process began with the selection of areas with the worst social indicators in health vulnerability. Then, key stakeholders of the region jointly identified priority areas of intervention and developed a consensual plan of action. We present the outcomes of this experience and its connection with theoretical models of asset-based community development, health-integrated georeferencing systems and community health interventions. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Urban Intensification and Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts on Urban Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uzokwe, V. N. E. N.; Muchelo, R. O.; Odeh, I. A.

2015-12-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), urban intensification and expansion are increasing at alarming rates due to rapid population growth and rural-to-urban migration. This has led to the premise that the proportion of SSA urban residents most vulnerable to food insecurity is the highest in the world. Using a focused survey and multi-temporal (decadal) land use/cover classification of Landsat images, we explored the effect of urban intensification and expansion on urban agriculture and food security, focusing on a megacity and a regional center in Uganda: Kampala and Mbarara, respectively. We found that food insecurity arose due to a number of reasons, among which are: i) expansion and intensification of of urban settlements into previously productive agricultural lands in urban and peri-urban areas; ii) loss of predominantly young (rural agricultural) adult labor force to urban centers, leading to decline in rural food production; iii) lack of proper urban planning incorporating green and agricultural development leading to low productive market garden systems. We discussed these outcomes in light of existing studies which estimated that urban agriculture alone supports over 800 million people globally and accounts for 15-20% of world food supply. In spite of this relatively low contribution by urban/peri-urban agriculture, it probably accounts for higher proportion of food supply to urban poor in SSA and thus are most vulnerable to the loss of urban and peri-urban agricultural land. Further recommendations require policy makers and urban planners to team up to design a suitable framework for sustainable urban planning and development.

Models of invasion and establishment of African Mustard (Brassica tournefortii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Gowan, Timothy A.; Miller, David M.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2015-01-01

Introduced exotic plants can drive ecosystem change. We studied invasion and establishment ofBrassica tournefortii (African mustard), a noxious weed, in the Chemehuevi Valley, western Sonoran Desert, California. We used long-term data sets of photographs, transects for biomass of annual plants, and densities of African mustard collected at irregular intervals between 1979 and 2009. We suggest that African mustard may have been present in low numbers along the main route of travel, a highway, in the late 1970s; invaded the valley along a major axial valley ephemeral stream channel and the highway; and by 2009, colonized 22 km into the eastern part of the valley. We developed predictive models for invasibility and establishment of African mustard. Both during the initial invasion and after establishment, significant predictor variables of African mustard densities were surficial geology, proximity to the highway and axial valley ephemeral stream channel, and number of small ephemeral stream channels. The axial valley ephemeral stream channel was the most vulnerable of the variables to invasions. Overall, African mustard rapidly colonized and quickly became established in naturally disturbed areas, such as stream channels, where geological surfaces were young and soils were weakly developed. Older geological surfaces (e.g., desert pavements with soils 140,000 to 300,000 years old) were less vulnerable. Microhabitats also influenced densities of African mustard, with densities higher under shrubs than in the interspaces. As African mustard became established, the proportional biomass of native winter annual plants declined. Early control is important because African mustard can colonize and become well established across a valley in 20 yr.

Software Vulnerability Taxonomy Consolidation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Polepeddi, Sriram S.

2004-12-07

In today's environment, computers and networks are increasing exposed to a number of software vulnerabilities. Information about these vulnerabilities is collected and disseminated via various large publicly available databases such as BugTraq, OSVDB and ICAT. Each of these databases, individually, do not cover all aspects of a vulnerability and lack a standard format among them, making it difficult for end-users to easily compare various vulnerabilities. A central database of vulnerabilities has not been available until today for a number of reasons, such as the non-uniform methods by which current vulnerability database providers receive information, disagreement over which features of amore » particular vulnerability are important and how best to present them, and the non-utility of the information presented in many databases. The goal of this software vulnerability taxonomy consolidation project is to address the need for a universally accepted vulnerability taxonomy that classifies vulnerabilities in an unambiguous manner. A consolidated vulnerability database (CVDB) was implemented that coalesces and organizes vulnerability data from disparate data sources. Based on the work done in this paper, there is strong evidence that a consolidated taxonomy encompassing and organizing all relevant data can be achieved. However, three primary obstacles remain: lack of referencing a common ''primary key'', un-structured and free-form descriptions of necessary vulnerability data, and lack of data on all aspects of a vulnerability. This work has only considered data that can be unambiguously extracted from various data sources by straightforward parsers. It is felt that even with the use of more advanced, information mining tools, which can wade through the sea of unstructured vulnerability data, this current integration methodology would still provide repeatable, unambiguous, and exhaustive results. Though the goal of coalescing all available data, which would be of use to system administrators, software developers and vulnerability researchers is not yet achieved, this work has resulted in the most exhaustive collection of vulnerability data to date.« less

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Developing a Vulnerability Mapping Methodology: Applying the Water-Associated Disease Index to Dengue in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Dickin, Sarah K.; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J.; Elliott, Susan J.

2013-01-01

The Water-associated Disease Index (WADI) was developed to identify and visualize vulnerability to different water-associated diseases by integrating a range of social and biophysical determinants in map format. In this study vulnerability is used to encompass conditions of exposure, susceptibility, and differential coping capacity to a water-associated health hazard. By assessing these conditions, the tool is designed to provide stakeholders with an integrated and long-term understanding of subnational vulnerabilities to water-associated disease and contribute to intervention strategies to reduce the burden of illness. The objective of this paper is to describe and validate the WADI tool by applying it to dengue. A systemic ecohealth framework that considers links between people, the environment and health was applied to identify secondary datasets, populating the index with components including climate conditions, land cover, education status and water use practices. Data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in a Geographic Information System (GIS). These indicators were weighted by their contribution to dengue vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The WADI was validated in this Malaysia case study, demonstrating a significant association with dengue rates at a sub-national level, and illustrating a range of factors that drive vulnerability to the disease within the country. The index output indicated high vulnerability to dengue in urban areas, especially in the capital Kuala Lumpur and surrounding region. However, in other regions, vulnerability to dengue varied throughout the year due to the influence of seasonal climate conditions, such as monsoon patterns. The WADI tool complements early warning models for water-associated disease by providing upstream information for planning prevention and control approaches, which increasingly require a comprehensive and geographically broad understanding of vulnerability for implementation. PMID:23667642

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Delin; Li, Yue

2016-05-01

Evaluating social vulnerability is a crucial issue in risk and disaster management. In this study, a household social vulnerability index (HSVI) to flood hazards was developed and used to assess the social vulnerability of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China. Eight key indicators were identified using existing literature and discussions with experts from multiple disciplines and local farmers, and their weights were determined using principle component analysis (PCA) and an expert scoring method. The results showed that (1) the ratio of perennial work in other places, hazard-related training and illiteracy ratio (15+) were the most dominant factors of social vulnerability. (2) The numbers of high, moderate and low vulnerability households were 14, 64 and 16, respectively, which accounted for 14.9, 68.1 and 17.0 % of the total interviewed rural households, respectively. (3) The correlation coefficient between household social vulnerability scores and casualties in a storm flood in July 2010 was significant at 0.05 significance level (r = 0.748), which indicated that the selected indicators and their weights were valid. (4) Some mitigation strategies to reduce household social vulnerability to flood hazards were proposed, which included (1) improving the local residents' income and their disaster-related knowledge and evacuation skills, (2) developing emergency plans and carrying out emergency drills and training, (3) enhancing the accuracy of disaster monitoring and warning systems and (4) establishing a specific emergency management department and comprehensive rescue systems. These results can provide useful information for rural households and local governments to prepare, mitigate and respond to flood hazards, and the corresponding strategies can help local households to reduce their social vulnerability and improve their ability to resist flood hazard.

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

PubMed

Patt, Anthony G; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-26

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.

Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

PubMed Central

Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

2010-01-01

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

Recurrence and emergence of infectious diseases in Djibouti city.

PubMed Central

Rodier, G. R.; Parra, J. P.; Kamil, M.; Chakib, S. O.; Cope, S. E.

1995-01-01

Public health authorities are now increasingly concerned by changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases which may have an adverse impact on their budget plans and control strategies. Rapid increases in population and urban migration, various ecological changes, increasing poverty, and a rise in international travel have contributed to the worldwide vulnerability of human populations to the emergence, recurrence or spread of infectious diseases. In the rapidly growing city of Djibouti in East Africa, public health priorities have been altered during the last 10 years by diseases which were unknown or under control until the early 1980s. These diseases, including malaria, AIDS, tuberculosis, dengue fever and cholera, are consuming considerable resources. This article on Djibouti illustrates the epidemiological changes in the region. Besides the specific ecological and behavioural changes, which accompany rapid population growth, poverty seems to be a major cause for the emergence and recurrence of infectious diseases. PMID:8907768

The Effects of Congenital Heart Disease on Cognitive Development, Illness Causality Concepts, and Vulnerability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers-Vando, Rosemary; And Others

1979-01-01

It was found, among other things, that Ss with cardiac disease responded at lower levels of development on attainment of conservation tasks than did normal controls, and that cardiac Ss appeared to feel somewhat more vulnerable to illness in general, especially when projecting to adult health status. (DLS)

Co-Development of Internalizing and Externalizing Problem Behaviors: Causal Direction and Common Vulnerability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Eunju J.; Bukowski, William M.

2012-01-01

Latent growth curve modeling was used to study the co-development of internalizing and externalizing problems in a sample of 2844 Korean fourth graders followed over four years. The project integrated two major theoretical viewpoints positing developmental mechanism: directional model and common vulnerability model. Findings suggest that (a) boys…

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

2010-07-28

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk

PubMed Central

Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C.; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H.

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species’ trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally. PMID:29145486

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

PubMed

Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis

PubMed Central

Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype—the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. PMID:27073049

Development of a smart home simulator for use as a heuristic tool for management of sensor distribution.

PubMed

Poland, Michael P; Nugent, Chris D; Wang, Hui; Chen, Liming

2009-01-01

Smart Homes offer potential solutions for various forms of independent living for the elderly. The assistive and protective environment afforded by smart homes offer a safe, relatively inexpensive, dependable and viable alternative to vulnerable inhabitants. Nevertheless, the success of a smart home rests upon the quality of information its decision support system receives and this in turn places great importance on the issue of correct sensor deployment. In this article we present a software tool that has been developed to address the elusive issue of sensor distribution within smart homes. Details of the tool will be presented and it will be shown how it can be used to emulate any real world environment whereby virtual sensor distributions can be rapidly implemented and assessed without the requirement for physical deployment for evaluation. As such, this approach offers the potential of tailoring sensor distributions to the specific needs of a patient in a non-evasive manner. The heuristics based tool presented here has been developed as the first part of a three stage project.

Suicide risk in youth with intellectual disabilities: the challenges of screening.

PubMed

Ludi, Erica; Ballard, Elizabeth D; Greenbaum, Rachel; Pao, Maryland; Bridge, Jeffrey; Reynolds, William; Horowitz, Lisa

2012-06-01

Children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities (IDs), often diagnosed with comorbid psychiatric disorders, are a vulnerable population who may be at risk for developing suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Previous research has demonstrated that direct suicide screening can rapidly and effectively detect suicide risk and facilitate further clinical evaluation and management. Currently, there are no measures that screen for suicide risk designed specifically for individuals with ID. A review of the literature was conducted to (1) estimate the prevalence of suicidal thoughts, behaviors, and deaths by suicide in children and adolescents with ID; (2) describe associations between youth with ID and suicide risk; and (3) identify the limitations of commonly used suicide screening measures developed for non-ID youth. The literature review confirms that suicide risk exists in this population; youth with ID think about, attempt, and die by suicide. Standardized suicide risk screening is challenged by the lack of measures developed for this population. A summary of the findings is followed by a discussion of the practical clinical considerations surrounding the assessment of suicide risk in youth with ID.

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in developing countries; the current scenario in Pakistan.

PubMed

Yousaf, Muhammad Z; Zia, Sadia; Babar, Masroor E; Ashfaq, Usman A

2011-08-12

HIV (Human Immunodeficiency virus) causes (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) AIDS, in which the immune system of body totally fails to develop any defense against the foreign invaders. Infection with HIV occurs by transfer of blood, semen, and breast milk. HIV/AIDS is a global problem and it results nearly 25 million deaths worldwide. Developing countries like Pakistan have issues regarding Public Health. Currently, epidemic of HIV/AIDS is established in Pakistan and there is a threat of an expanded HIV/AIDS outbreak in the country. The major reason is that population is engaging in high-risk practices, low awareness about HIV/AIDS, and treacherous blood transfusion practices. A supplementary threat to Pakistan is India because both sharing a border and India is facing a rapidly growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Local NGOs, National and International organizations are warning that in near future Pakistan may experiences bad situation regarding HIV/AIDS.In the present article we focused current situation of surveillance of HIV/AIDS, its virology, genotype, diagnostics, high-risk groups, reasons of vulnerability in Pakistani population, and the role of different national and international organizations in this situation.

Health related vulnerability due to chronic diseases: Impact on clinical services across emergency shelters in mass disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koleva, Yordanka Nikolova

Chronic diseases are increasingly recognized as major contributors to the global burden of disease. Individuals with chronic disease are particularly vulnerable during mass emergencies as they may suffer an interruption in their therapeutic programs, leading to life-threatening conditions and complications. Based on the individual and community risk factors framework, three categories are defined as the most vulnerable to extreme natural events: physically, psychologically, and socially vulnerable. Complex emergencies that occurred in the recent decade have provided evidence that these groups suffer more pronounced effects than others. Individuals seeking community support during emergencies have been predominantly medically dependent, elderly, children, people with chronic health conditions, and lower socioeconomic status. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of health-related vulnerability on shelter operations, and to estimate the burden of chronic disease on community resources following catastrophic events. A comprehensive survey data collection conducted by the United States Public Health Service in 2005 was used to evaluate clinical services for populations with health conditions accommodated by Louisiana temporary disaster shelters. Correlation and multiple regression analyses determined the relationship between shelter characteristics and the factors predicting shelters' needs for short-term assistance. Significant predictors were identified in all three explored domains: structural shelter characteristics (sponsor, interpreter needed); clinical characteristics (access to health providers, clinic on site, staff had no days off); population characteristics (census, compromised mental health alone, or in combination with chronic conditions and diseases with epidemic potential). Shelters sponsored by faith-based organizations were less likely to be in risk of rapid resource depletion. Shelters with large census demonstrated association with the need of short-term assistance to maintain operations, as larger census was positively correlated with large numbers of individuals with vulnerabilities. Combined health-related vulnerability factor (chronic conditions, psycho-social disorders, and epidemic diseases) influenced significantly the risk of resource depletion. This study provides cross-sectional evidence that large concentration of populations with health-related vulnerabilities during disaster recovery phase is associated with increased demand for medical services. Chronic diseases with high prevalence and incidence like psycho-social disorders, diabetes, and cardiovascular conditions diagnosed during screenings could predict the overall burden on the health network.

Low vulnerability explosives (LOVEX) for mass-use warheads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruneda, C.; Jessop, E.; McGuire, R.

1990-03-13

There is an ongoing effort at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to develop explosives with a significantly lower vulnerability to battlefield environments (bullets, fragments, sympathetic detonation) than current explosives (TNT and Comp B) without sacrificing performance or increasing costs. The approach taken is to develop a composite explosive which is comprised of inexpensive fillers such as RDX, NaNO{sub 3}, Al and a low modulus binder system. The binder system uses nitroglycerin/triacetin as an energetic plasticizer. This paper discusses the experimental results to date in vulnerability, performance and processing. 7 refs., 8 figs., 6 tabs.

Natural Hazards and Vulnerability in Valle de Chalco Solidaridad Estado de Mexico, Mexico. Case studies: El Triunfo, Avandaro and San Isidro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce-Pacheco, A. B.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Espinosa-Campos, O.; Rodriguez, F.; Huerta-Parra, M.; Reyes-Pimentel, T.; Benitez-Olivares, I.

2010-12-01

On February 5, 2010, occurred a fracture on a wall of the artificial water channel called “La Compañía (CC)” in the section of the municipality of Valle de Chalco Solidaridad (VCS), Estado de Mexico, Mexico. The dimensions of this fracture were 70m length, 20m wide and 5m height, and cause severe wastewater flooding that affected surrounding communities. This area was also impacted by a similar event in 2000 and 2005. In this study, we assess the social, economic, structural, and physical vulnerability to floods, earthquakes, subsidence, and landslides hazards in the communities of El Triunfo, San Isidro and Avandaro of VCS. This area is located in soil of the old Chalco Lake, and in recent decades has experienced a large population growth. Due to urban development and the overexploitation of aquifers, the zone is also exposed to subsidence up to 40 cm per year. For these reasons, CC is at present, well above ground level. In this research, we applied the methodology developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess vulnerability. As a first step, we established the level of exposure of the communities to the four main hazards. We also analyzed the economic and social vulnerability of the area using data collected from a field survey. From the total family houses in the studied communities, we estimated a minimum sample statistically significant and the households from this sample were selected randomly. We defined five levels of vulnerability: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Our results indicate that San Isidro is the community with the highest level of structural vulnerability, as for the physical vulnerability it was found that the homes most affected by flooding are those located close to CC but we did not found a direct relationship between the physical vulnerability and structural vulnerability. The main hazard to which the zone of study is exposed is flooding because its period of recurrence is about five years. About 83% of families have a high level of economic vulnerability. Regarding the structural vulnerability, approximately 25% of the structures have high, and 39% moderate vulnerability. These results indicate that the community has a low standard for living and the resilience is very low. Considering an overall vulnerability estimated by summing the results of the four types of analyzed vulnerabilities, we found that 53% of the sampled population has moderate vulnerability, 34% low, about 2% very low, 10% high and less than 1% very high.

Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sievert, Nicholas A.; Paukert, Craig P.; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Infante, Dana M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiversity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species’ traits. The indices were compared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream temperature, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index's inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnerability due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of conservation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the classification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

Stress and the Development of Cognitive Vulnerabilities to Depression Explain Sex Differences in Depressive Symptoms during Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Jessica L.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

Although cognitive vulnerabilities to depression have received considerable empirical support, little research has evaluated the differential development of cognitive vulnerabilities in adolescent girls and boys. The current study examined the role of stressful life events, as well as sex differences in reactivity and exposure to stress, in the development of negative cognitive style and rumination in a multi-wave study of 382 adolescents. Path analyses indicated that interpersonal dependent stress predicted higher prospective levels of negative cognitive styles and rumination. Additionally, girls’ greater exposure to interpersonal dependent stress explained their higher levels of rumination, which accounted for girls’ higher levels of depressive symptoms than boys. These findings suggest that interpersonal dependent stress is a significant risk factor for the formation of cognitive vulnerabilities to depression during adolescence, and that the sex difference in depressive symptoms may result from girls’ greater exposure to interpersonal dependent stress and ruminative response style than boys. PMID:26509106

78 FR 78329 - Information Collection Activity; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... America is adequately protected, electric borrowers conduct a Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) of... vulnerabilities, if present, to review existing mitigation procedures and to assist in the development of new and...

Sex differences in behavior and neural development and their role in adolescent vulnerability to substance use

PubMed Central

Hammerslag, Lindsey R.; Gulley, Joshua M.

2015-01-01

Adolescents are especially prone to risky behavior and to the emergence of psychological disorders like substance abuse, anxiety and depression. However, there is a sex (or gender) difference in this vulnerability, with females being more prone to developing internalizing disorders and males being more likely to engage in risky behavior and drug use. While several researchers have proposed that there is a relationship between corticolimbic circuit development and adolescent vulnerability, the current proposed models do not take sex differences into account. In this review, we explore recent findings from both human and rodent studies of sex differences during adolescence. In particular, we consider epidemiological studies on the factors that contribute to the development of substance abuse and internalizing disorders, laboratory studies on reward-related and decision-making behavior, and neuroanatomical studies on the development of several structures in the corticolimbic circuit (i.e., prefrontal cortex [PFC], amygdala and striatum). We then integrate these recent findings into models of adolescent vulnerability to substance use that have previously not addressed sex differences. Lastly, we discuss methodological considerations for the interpretation and design of studies on sex (or gender) differences during adolescence while highlighting some opportunities for future investigations. PMID:25882721

Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, W. J.; Zhang, Y. L.

2015-08-01

Huaihe River is one of the seven largest rivers in China, in which floods occurred frequently. Disasters cause huge casualties and property losses to the basin, and also make it famous for high social vulnerability to floods. Based on the latest social-economic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed, and Catastrophe theory method was used in the assessment process. The conclusion shows that social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. It is important to make further development of social vulnerability, which will play a positive role in disaster prevention, improvement of comprehensive ability to respond to disasters.

Biomechanics of Atherosclerotic Coronary Plaque: Site, Stability and In Vivo Elasticity Modeling

PubMed Central

Ohayon, Jacques; Finet, Gérard; Le Floc’h, Simon; Cloutier, Guy; Gharib, Ahmed M.; Heroux, Julie; Pettigrew, Roderic I.

2016-01-01

Coronary atheroma develop in local sites that are widely variable among patients and are considerably variable in their vulnerability for rupture. This article summarizes studies conducted by our collaborative laboratories on predictive biomechanical modeling of coronary plaques. It aims to give insights into the role of biomechanics in the development and localization of atherosclerosis, the morphologic features that determine vulnerable plaque stability, and emerging in vivo imaging techniques that may detect and characterize vulnerable plaque. Composite biomechanical and hemodynamic factors that influence the actual site of development of plaques have been studied. Plaque vulnerability, in vivo, is more challenging to assess. Important steps have been made in defining the biomechanical factors that are predictive of plaque rupture and the likelihood of this occurring if characteristic features are known. A critical key in defining plaque vulnerability is the accurate quantification of both the morphology and the mechanical properties of the diseased arteries. Recently, an early IVUS based palpography technique developed to assess local strain, elasticity and mechanical instabilities has been successfully revisited and improved to account for complex plaque geometries. This is based on an initial best estimation of the plaque components’ contours, allowing subsequent iteration for elastic modulus assessment as a basis for plaque stability determination. The improved method has also been preliminarily evaluated in patients with successful histologic correlation. Further clinical evaluation and refinement are on the horizon. PMID:24043605

[Coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty in contiguous destitute areas, China: Empirical analysis of 714 poverty-stricken counties.

PubMed

Cao, Shi Song; Wang, Yan Hui; Duan, Fu Zhou; Zhao, Wen Ji; Wang, Zhi Heng; Fang, Na

2016-08-01

Maintaining the coordinated correlation between ecological environment and economic development is one of the important strategies in the new stage of poverty alleviation and development. Taking 714 poverty-stricken counties in contiguous destitute areas as study areas, this paper designed the ecological vulnerability evaluation indicator system based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, as well as the comprehensive poverty evaluation indicators from the perspective of socioeconomic development, so as to build the coupling model to reveal the coupling between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty. The results showed that Hu-Line could act as a feasible partition label to depict the spatial distribution patterns of ecological vulnerability, economic poverty, as well as their coupling degree in contiguous destitute areas, which should be fully taken into consideration the influence of Hu-Line on the east-west pattern classification of national poverty reduction. In addition, there existed a symbiotic positive correlation between ecological vulnerability and economic poverty, therefore, the strategic significance of ecological and environment protection in poverty-stricken areas should be specifically emphasized to reduce economic poverty by synchronously protecting the ecological environment. Approximately half of the counties involved in the study area were in the coordinated type of recession disorders, where the ecological environment quality and the economic development could not be synchronized.

Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

PubMed

Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

2014-02-21

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change. PMID:24566049

Improvements to the DRASTIC ground-water vulnerability mapping method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.

1999-01-01

Ground-water vulnerability maps are designed to show areas of greatest potential for ground-water contamination on the basis of hydrogeologic and anthropogenic (human) factors. The maps are developed by using computer mapping hardware and software called a geographic information system (GIS) to combine data layers such as land use, soils, and depth to water. Usually, ground-water vulnerability is determined by assigning point ratings to the individual data layers and then adding the point ratings together when those layers are combined into a vulnerability map. Probably the most widely used ground-water vulnerability mapping method is DRASTIC, named for the seven factors considered in the method: Depth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone media, and hydraulic Conductivity of the aquifer (Aller and others, 1985, p. iv). The DRASTIC method has been used to develop ground-water vulnerability maps in many parts of the Nation; however, the effectiveness of the method has met with mixed success (Koterba and others, 1993, p. 513; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1993; Barbash and Resek, 1996; Rupert, 1997). DRASTIC maps usually are not calibrated to measured contaminant concentrations. The DRASTIC ground-water vulnerability mapping method was improved by calibrating the point rating scheme to measured nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (NO2+NO3–N) concentrations in ground water on the basis of statistical correlations between NO2+NO3–N concentrations and land use, soils, and depth to water (Rupert, 1997). This report describes the calibration method developed by Rupert and summarizes the improvements in results of this method over those of the uncalibrated DRASTIC method applied by Rupert and others (1991) in the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho.

Integrating Social impacts on Health and Health-Care Systems in Systemic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz-Plapp, T.; Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.

2012-04-01

This paper presents a new method for modeling health impacts caused by earthquake damage which allows for integrating key social impacts on individual health and health-care systems and for implementing these impacts in quantitative systemic seismic vulnerability analysis. In current earthquake casualty estimation models, demand on health-care systems is estimated by quantifying the number of fatalities and severity of injuries based on empirical data correlating building damage with casualties. The expected number of injured people (sorted by priorities of emergency treatment) is combined together with post-earthquake reduction of functionality of health-care facilities such as hospitals to estimate the impact on healthcare systems. The aim here is to extend these models by developing a combined engineering and social science approach. Although social vulnerability is recognized as a key component for the consequences of disasters, social vulnerability as such, is seldom linked to common formal and quantitative seismic loss estimates of injured people which provide direct impact on emergency health care services. Yet, there is a consensus that factors which affect vulnerability and post-earthquake health of at-risk populations include demographic characteristics such as age, education, occupation and employment and that these factors can aggravate health impacts further. Similarly, there are different social influences on the performance of health care systems after an earthquake both on an individual as well as on an institutional level. To link social impacts of health and health-care services to a systemic seismic vulnerability analysis, a conceptual model of social impacts of earthquakes on health and the health care systems has been developed. We identified and tested appropriate social indicators for individual health impacts and for health care impacts based on literature research, using available European statistical data. The results will be used to develop a socio-physical model of systemic seismic vulnerability that enhances the further understanding of societal seismic risk by taking into account social vulnerability impacts for health and health-care system, shelter, and transportation.

Trends in traffic fatalities in Mexico: examining progress on the decade of action for road safety 2011-2020.

PubMed

Cervantes-Trejo, Arturo; Leenen, Iwin; Fabila-Carrasco, John Stewart; Rojas-Vargas, Roy

2016-11-01

We explore demographic, temporal and geographic patterns of 256,588 road traffic fatalities from 1998 to 2013 in Mexico, in context of UN´s decade of action for road safety 2010-2020 (DARS). Combined traffic mortality data and population counts were analyzed using mixed-effects logistic regression, distinguishing sex-age groups, vulnerable and protected road users, and municipal size. Rapid growth from 1998 to 2008 in traffic mortality rates has been reversed since 2009. Most deaths averted are among young male protected road users (reduction of 0.95 fatalities per 100,000 per year in males 12-49). In spite of a steady decrease over the full study period, mortality rates remain high in vulnerable road users over 50, with a high mortality rate of 26 per 100,000 males over 75 years in 2013. Progress on the reduction of deaths advances in Mexico, in line with DARS targets. National road safety efforts require strengthening. Initiatives should target vulnerable road users, specifically adults >50 years in urban areas. Strengthening of drink driving programs aimed at young drivers/occupants is promising.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxytocin motivates non-cooperation in intergroup conflict to protect vulnerable in-group members.

PubMed

De Dreu, Carsten K W; Shalvi, Shaul; Greer, Lindred L; Van Kleef, Gerben A; Handgraaf, Michel J J

2012-01-01

Intergroup conflict is often driven by an individual's motivation to protect oneself and fellow group members against the threat of out-group aggression, including the tendency to pre-empt out-group threat through a competitive approach. Here we link such defense-motivated competition to oxytocin, a hypothalamic neuropeptide involved in reproduction and social bonding. An intergroup conflict game was developed to disentangle whether oxytocin motivates competitive approach to protect (i) immediate self-interest, (ii) vulnerable in-group members, or (iii) both. Males self-administered oxytocin or placebo (double-blind placebo-controlled) and made decisions with financial consequences to themselves, their fellow in-group members, and a competing out-group. Game payoffs were manipulated between-subjects so that non-cooperation by the out-group had high vs. low impact on personal payoff (personal vulnerability), and high vs. low impact on payoff to fellow in-group members (in-group vulnerability). When personal vulnerability was high, non-cooperation was unaffected by treatment and in-group vulnerability. When personal vulnerability was low, however, in-group vulnerability motivated non-cooperation but only when males received oxytocin. Oxytocin fuels a defense-motivated competitive approach to protect vulnerable group members, even when personal fate is not at stake.

Individual, occupational, and workplace correlates of occupational health and safety vulnerability in a sample of Canadian workers

PubMed Central

Saunders, Ron; Lifshen, Marni; Breslin, Curtis; LaMontagne, Anthony; Tompa, Emile; Smith, Peter

2015-01-01

Objective To describe OH&S vulnerability across a diverse sample of Canadian workers. Methods A survey was administered to 1,835 workers employed more than 15 hrs/week in workplaces with at least five employees. Adjusted logistic models were fitted for three specific and one overall measure of workplace vulnerability developed based on hazard exposure and access to protective OH&S policies and procedures, awareness of employment rights and responsibilities, and workplace empowerment. Results More than one third of the sample experienced some OH&S vulnerability. The type and magnitude of vulnerability varied by labor market sub‐group. Younger workers and those in smaller workplaces experienced significantly higher odds of multiple types of vulnerability. Temporary workers reported elevated odds of overall, awareness‐ and empowerment‐related vulnerability, while respondents born outside of Canada had significantly higher odds of awareness vulnerability. Conclusion Knowing how labor market sub‐groups experience different types of vulnerability can inform better‐tailored primary prevention interventions. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:119–128, 2016. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26771101

Combating human trafficking in the sex trade: can sex workers do it better?

PubMed

Jana, Smarajit; Dey, Bharati; Reza-Paul, Sushena; Steen, Richard

2014-12-01

The dominant anti-trafficking paradigm conflates trafficking and sex work, denying evidence that most sex workers choose their profession and justifying police actions that disrupt communities, drive sex workers underground and increase vulnerability. We review an alternative response to combating human trafficking and child prostitution in the sex trade, the self-regulatory board (SRB) developed by Durbar Mahila Samanwaya Committee (DMSC, Sonagachi). DMSC-led interventions to remove minors and unwilling women from sex work account for over 80% of successful 'rescues' reported in West Bengal. From 2009 through 2011, 2195 women and girls were screened by SRBs: 170 (7.7%) minors and 45 (2.1%) unwilling adult women were assisted and followed up. The remaining 90.2% received counselling, health care and the option to join savings schemes and other community programmes designed to reduce sex worker vulnerability. Between 1992 and 2011 the proportion of minors in sex work in Sonagachi declined from 25 to 2%. With its universal surveillance of sex workers entering the profession, attention to rapid and confidential intervention and case management, and primary prevention of trafficking-including microcredit and educational programmes for children of sex workers-the SRB approach stands as a new model of success in anti-trafficking work. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exposure to hepatitis C virus in homeless men in Central Brazil: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ferreira, Priscilla Martins; Guimarães, Rafael Alves; Souza, Christiane Moreira; Guimarães, Lara Cristina da Cunha; Barros, Cleiciane Vieira de Lima; Caetano, Karlla Antonieta Amorim; Rezza, Giovanni; Spadoni, Lila; Brunini, Sandra Maria

2017-01-18

Homeless men are highly vulnerable to acquisition of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) compared to the general population. In Brazil, a country of continental dimensions, the extent of HCV infection in this population remains unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate the epidemiological profile of exposure to HCV in homeless men in Central Brazil. A Cross-sectional study was conducted in 481 men aged over 18 years attending therapeutic communities specialized in the recovery and reintegration of homeless people. Participants were tested for anti-HCV markers using rapid tests. Poisson regression analysis was used to verify the risk factors associated with exposure to HCV. The prevalence of HCV exposure was 2.5% (95.0% CI: 1.4 to 4.3%) and was associated with age, absence of family life, injection drug use, number of sexual partners, and history of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Participants reported multiple risk behaviors, such as alcohol (78.9%), cocaine (37.1%) and/or crack use (53.1%), and inconsistent condom use (82.6%). Injection drug use was reported by 8.7% of participants. The prevalence of HCV infection among homeless men was relatively high. Several risk behaviors were commonly reported, which shows the high vulnerability of this population. These findings emphasize the need for the development of specific strategies to reduce the risk of HCV among homeless men.

UAS-SfM for coastal research: Geomorphic feature extraction and land cover classification from high-resolution elevation and optical imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturdivant, Emily; Lentz, Erika; Thieler, E. Robert; Farris, Amy; Weber, Kathryn; Remsen, David P.; Miner, Simon; Henderson, Rachel

2017-01-01

The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive means to produce high-resolution topographic and visual reflectance datasets that rival existing lidar and imagery standards. Here, we use SfM to produce an elevation point cloud, an orthomosaic, and a digital elevation model (DEM) from data collected by UAS at a beach and wetland site in Massachusetts, USA. We apply existing methods to (a) determine the position of shorelines and foredunes using a feature extraction routine developed for lidar point clouds and (b) map land cover from the rasterized surfaces using a supervised classification routine. In both analyses, we experimentally vary the input datasets to understand the benefits and limitations of UAS-SfM for coastal vulnerability assessment. We find that (a) geomorphic features are extracted from the SfM point cloud with near-continuous coverage and sub-meter precision, better than was possible from a recent lidar dataset covering the same area; and (b) land cover classification is greatly improved by including topographic data with visual reflectance, but changes to resolution (when <50 cm) have little influence on the classification accuracy.

Neuroprotection and aging of the cholinergic system: a role for the ergoline derivative nicergoline (Sermion).

PubMed

Giardino, L; Giuliani, A; Battaglia, A; Carfagna, N; Aloe, L; Calza', L

2002-01-01

The aging brain is characterized by selective neurochemical changes involving several neural populations. A deficit in the cholinergic system of the basal forebrain is thought to contribute to the development of cognitive symptoms of dementia. Attempts to prevent age-associated cholinergic vulnerability and deterioration therefore represent a crucial point for pharmacotherapy in the elderly. In this paper we provide evidence for the protective effect of nicergoline (Sermion) on the degeneration of cholinergic neurons induced by nerve growth factor deprivation. Nerve growth factor deprivation was induced by colchicine administration in rats 13 and 18 months old. Colchicine induces a rapid and substantial down-regulation of choline acetyltransferase messenger RNA level in the basal forebrain in untreated adult, middle-aged and old rats. Colchicine failed to cause these effects in old rats treated for 120 days with nicergoline 10 mg/kg/day, orally. Moreover, a concomitant increase of both nerve growth factor and brain-derived neurotrophic factor content was measured in the basal forebrain of old, nicergoline-treated rats. Additionally, the level of messenger RNA for the brain isoform of nitric oxide synthase in neurons of the basal forebrain was also increased in these animals. Based on the present findings, nicergoline proved to be an effective drug for preventing neuronal vulnerability due to experimentally induced nerve growth factor deprivation.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves. Finally, this approach allows for more accuracy in estimating losses as a result of direct damages. 1 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

PubMed

Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

2016-04-15

In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability to alcohol-related problems: a policy brief with implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing.

PubMed

Babor, Thomas F; Robaina, Katherine; Noel, Jonathan K; Ritson, E Bruce

2017-01-01

The concern that alcohol advertising can have detrimental effects on vulnerable viewers has prompted the development of codes of responsible advertising practices. This paper evaluates critically the concept of vulnerability as it applies to (1) susceptibility to alcohol-related harm and (2) susceptibility to the effects of marketing, and describes its implications for the regulation of alcohol marketing. We describe the findings of key published studies, review papers and expert reports to determine whether these two types of vulnerability apply to population groups defined by (1) age and developmental history; (2) personality characteristics; (3) family history of alcoholism; (4) female sex and pregnancy risk; and (5) history of alcohol dependence and recovery status. Developmental theory and research suggest that groups defined by younger age, incomplete neurocognitive development and a history of alcohol dependence may be particularly vulnerable because of the disproportionate harm they experience from alcohol and their increased susceptibility to alcohol marketing. Children may be more susceptible to media imagery because they do not have the ability to compensate for biases in advertising portrayals and glamorized media imagery. Young people and people with a history of alcohol dependence appear to be especially vulnerable to alcohol marketing, warranting the development of new content and exposure guidelines focused on protecting those groups to improve current self-regulation codes promoted by the alcohol industry. If adequate protections cannot be implemented through this mechanism, statutory regulations should be considered. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Air pollution and vulnerability: solving the puzzle of prioritization.

PubMed

Wright, Caradee Y; Diab, Roseanne

2011-01-01

While ambient air pollution levels in excess of prescribed health standards are generally unacceptable, the exceedance is even more serious in areas where people reside. Vulnerability caused by poverty, disease, lack of education, and poor living conditions exacerbates the problem. Air quality management plans identify prioritized strategies for improved air quality independent of consideration of vulnerability. A population exposure and vulnerability risk prioritization framework comprising five themes (air pollution sources; air pollution levels; air pollution potential; community awareness, observations, perceptions, and actions; and vulnerability factors) was proposed and applied to the eThekwini Municipality (Durban, South Africa). Data were scored according to predetermined risk threshold values to ascertain at-risk communities. While those urban wards located in a known air pollution hotspot had the highest air pollution levels, a periurban ward with moderate exposure levels was most vulnerable. This framework will prove invaluable for the development of focused interventions to reduce vulnerability and air pollution-associated adverse health impacts.

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

Physically-based modelling of high magnitude torrent events with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Ramirez, Jorge; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

High magnitude torrent events are associated with the rapid propagation of vast quantities of water and available sediment downslope where human settlements may be established. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to these events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. The specific contribution of the presented work describes a procedure simulate these damaging events by applying physically-based modelling and to include uncertainty information about the simulated results. This is a first step in the development of vulnerability curves based on several intensity parameters (i.e. maximum velocity, sediment deposition depth and impact pressure). The investigation process begins with the collection, organization and interpretation of detailed post-event documentation and photograph-based observation data of affected structures in three sites that exemplify the impact of highly destructive mudflows and flood occurrences on settlements in Switzerland. Hazard intensity proxies are then simulated with the physically-based FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993). Prior to modelling, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to support a better understanding of model behaviour, parameterization and the quantification of uncertainties (Song et al., 2015). The inclusion of information describing the degree of confidence in the simulated results supports the credibility of vulnerability curves developed with the modelled data. First, key parameters are identified and selected based on literature review. Truncated a priori ranges of parameter values were then defined by expert solicitation. Local sensitivity analysis is performed based on manual calibration to provide an understanding of the parameters relevant to the case studies of interest. Finally, automated parameter estimation is performed to comprehensively search for optimal parameter combinations and associated values, which are evaluated using the observed data collected in the first stage of the investigation. O'Brien, J.S., Julien, P.Y., Fullerton, W. T., 1993. Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 119(2): 244-261.
 Song, X., Zhang, J., Zhan, C., Xuan, Y., Ye, M., Xu C., 2015. Global sensitivity analysis in hydrological modeling: Review of concepts, methods, theoretical frameworks, Journal of Hydrology 523: 739-757.

Redox Abnormalities as a Vulnerability Phenotype for Autism and Related Alterations in CNS Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

the hypothesis that SJL mice would have impaired neuronal dendrite generation, as has been observed in autism . This was our prediction due to the...phenotype for Autism and related alterations in CNS development PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Mark D. Noble, Ph.D. CONTRACTING...SUBTITLE Redox abnormalities as a vulnerability phenotype for Autism 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER And related alterations in CNS development 5b. GRANT

Identifying a Path Towards Rapid Discrimination of Infection Disease Outbreaks: Harnessing Next-Generation Sequencing Capabilities for Microbial Forensics

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-15

content typing, rep-PCR, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, optical mapping, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (G. Gault et al., 2011; P...Tremlett, G, Pidd, 2011). This case demonstrates the vulnerability of our food supply and why unusual outbreaks involving endemic microbes must be taken as... food products to malevolent tampering, and the widespread international economic consequences that can occur even from limited product contamination

Functioning before and after a major depressive episode: pre-existing vulnerability or scar? A prospective three-wave population-based study.

PubMed

Bos, E H; Ten Have, M; van Dorsselaer, S; Jeronimus, B F; de Graaf, R; de Jonge, P

2018-01-14

The vulnerability hypothesis suggests that impairments after remission of depressive episodes reflect a pre-existing vulnerability, while the scar hypothesis proposes that depression leaves residual impairments that confer risk of subsequent episodes. We prospectively examined vulnerability and scar effects in mental and physical functioning in a representative Dutch population sample. Three waves were used from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, a population-based study with a 6-years follow-up. Mental and physical functioning were assessed with the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36). Major depressive disorder (MDD) was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Vulnerability effects were examined by comparing healthy controls (n = 2826) with individuals who developed a first-onset depressive episode during first follow-up but did not have a lifetime diagnosis of MDD at baseline (n = 181). Scarring effects were examined by comparing pre- and post-morbid functioning in individuals who developed a depressive episode after baseline that was remitted at the third wave (n = 108). Both mental (B = -5.4, s.e. = 0.9, p < 0.001) and physical functioning (B = -8.2, s.e. = 1.1, p < 0.001) at baseline were lower in individuals who developed a first depressive episode after baseline compared with healthy controls. This effect was most pronounced in people who developed a severe episode. No firm evidence of scarring in mental or physical functioning was found. In unadjusted analyses, physical functioning was still lowered post-morbidly (B = -5.1, s.e. = 2.1, p = 0.014), but this effect disappeared in adjusted analyses. Functional impairments after remission of depression seem to reflect a pre-existing vulnerability rather than a scar.