Deglacial diatom production in the tropical North Atlantic driven by enhanced silicic acid supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, Katharine R.; Gong, Xun; Knorr, Gregor; Pike, Jennifer; Hall, Ian R.

2016-03-01

Major shifts in ocean circulation are thought to be responsible for abrupt changes in temperature and atmospheric CO2 during the last deglaciation, linked to variability in meridional heat transport and deep ocean carbon storage. There is also widespread evidence for shifts in biological production during these times of deglacial CO2 rise, including enhanced diatom production in regions such as the tropical Atlantic. However, it remains unclear as to whether this diatom production was driven by enhanced wind-driven upwelling or density-driven vertical mixing, or by elevated thermocline concentrations of silicic acid supplied to the surface at a constant rate. Here, we demonstrate that silicic acid supply at depth in the NE Atlantic was enhanced during the abrupt climate events of the deglaciation. We use marine sediment archives to show that an increase in diatom production during abrupt climate shifts could only occur in regions of the NE Atlantic where the deep supply of silicic acid could reach the surface. The associated changes are indicative of enhanced regional wind-driven upwelling and/or weakened stratification due to circulation changes during phases of weakened Atlantic meridional overturning. Globally near-synchronous pulses of diatom production and enhanced thermocline concentrations of silicic acid suggest that widespread deglacial surface-driven breakdown of stratification, linked to changes in atmospheric circulation, had major consequences for biological productivity and carbon cycling.

Functionally dissociable influences on learning rate in a dynamic environment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Nassar, Matthew R.; Gold, Joshua I.; Kable, Joseph W.

2015-01-01

Summary Maintaining accurate beliefs in a changing environment requires dynamically adapting the rate at which one learns from new experiences. Beliefs should be stable in the face of noisy data, but malleable in periods of change or uncertainty. Here we used computational modeling, psychophysics and fMRI to show that adaptive learning is not a unitary phenomenon in the brain. Rather, it can be decomposed into three computationally and neuroanatomically distinct factors that were evident in human subjects performing a spatial-prediction task: (1) surprise-driven belief updating, related to BOLD activity in visual cortex; (2) uncertainty-driven belief updating, related to anterior prefrontal and parietal activity; and (3) reward-driven belief updating, a context-inappropriate behavioral tendency related to activity in ventral striatum. These distinct factors converged in a core system governing adaptive learning. This system, which included dorsomedial frontal cortex, responded to all three factors and predicted belief updating both across trials and across individuals. PMID:25459409

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Strain-rate and temperature-driven transition in the shear transformation zone for two-dimensional amorphous solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Penghui; Park, Harold S.; Lin, Xi

2013-10-01

We couple the recently developed self-learning metabasin escape algorithm, which enables efficient exploration of the potential energy surface (PES), with shear deformation to elucidate strain-rate and temperature effects on the shear transformation zone (STZ) characteristics in two-dimensional amorphous solids. In doing so, we report a transition in the STZ characteristics that can be obtained through either increasing the temperature or decreasing the strain rate. The transition separates regions having two distinct STZ characteristics. Specifically, at high temperatures and high strain rates, we show that the STZs have characteristics identical to those that emerge from purely strain-driven, athermal quasistatic atomistic calculations. At lower temperatures and experimentally relevant strain rates, we use the newly coupled PES + shear deformation method to show that the STZs have characteristics identical to those that emerge from a purely thermally activated state. The specific changes in STZ characteristics that occur in moving from the strain-driven to thermally activated STZ regime include a 33% increase in STZ size, faster spatial decay of the displacement field, a change in the deformation mechanism inside the STZ from shear to tension, a reduction in the stress needed to nucleate the first STZ, and finally a notable loss in characteristic quadrupolar symmetry of the surrounding elastic matrix that has previously been seen in athermal, quasistatic shear studies of STZs.

Accelerated thermokarst formation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica.

PubMed

Levy, Joseph S; Fountain, Andrew G; Dickson, James L; Head, James W; Okal, Marianne; Marchant, David R; Watters, Jaclyn

2013-01-01

Thermokarst is a land surface lowered and disrupted by melting ground ice. Thermokarst is a major driver of landscape change in the Arctic, but has been considered to be a minor process in Antarctica. Here, we use ground-based and airborne LiDAR coupled with timelapse imaging and meteorological data to show that 1) thermokarst formation has accelerated in Garwood Valley, Antarctica; 2) the rate of thermokarst erosion is presently ~ 10 times the average Holocene rate; and 3) the increased rate of thermokarst formation is driven most strongly by increasing insolation and sediment/albedo feedbacks. This suggests that sediment enhancement of insolation-driven melting may act similarly to expected increases in Antarctic air temperature (presently occurring along the Antarctic Peninsula), and may serve as a leading indicator of imminent landscape change in Antarctica that will generate thermokarst landforms similar to those in Arctic periglacial terrains.

Observed vulnerability of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf to wind-driven inflow of warm deep water.

PubMed

Darelius, E; Fer, I; Nicholls, K W

2016-08-02

The average rate of melting at the base of the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea is currently low, but projected to increase dramatically within the next century. In a model study, melt rates increase as changing ice conditions cause a redirection of a coastal current, bringing warm water of open ocean origin through the Filchner Depression and into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity. Here we present observations from near Filchner Ice Shelf and from the Filchner Depression, which show that pulses of warm water already arrive as far south as the ice front. This southward heat transport follows the eastern flank of the Filchner Depression and is found to be directly linked to the strength of a wind-driven coastal current. Our observations emphasize the potential sensitivity of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates to changes in wind forcing.

Accelerated thermokarst formation in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

PubMed Central

Levy, Joseph S.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Dickson, James L.; Head, James W.; Okal, Marianne; Marchant, David R.; Watters, Jaclyn

2013-01-01

Thermokarst is a land surface lowered and disrupted by melting ground ice. Thermokarst is a major driver of landscape change in the Arctic, but has been considered to be a minor process in Antarctica. Here, we use ground-based and airborne LiDAR coupled with timelapse imaging and meteorological data to show that 1) thermokarst formation has accelerated in Garwood Valley, Antarctica; 2) the rate of thermokarst erosion is presently ~ 10 times the average Holocene rate; and 3) the increased rate of thermokarst formation is driven most strongly by increasing insolation and sediment/albedo feedbacks. This suggests that sediment enhancement of insolation-driven melting may act similarly to expected increases in Antarctic air temperature (presently occurring along the Antarctic Peninsula), and may serve as a leading indicator of imminent landscape change in Antarctica that will generate thermokarst landforms similar to those in Arctic periglacial terrains. PMID:23881292

Observed vulnerability of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf to wind-driven inflow of warm deep water

PubMed Central

Darelius, E.; Fer, I.; Nicholls, K. W.

2016-01-01

The average rate of melting at the base of the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea is currently low, but projected to increase dramatically within the next century. In a model study, melt rates increase as changing ice conditions cause a redirection of a coastal current, bringing warm water of open ocean origin through the Filchner Depression and into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity. Here we present observations from near Filchner Ice Shelf and from the Filchner Depression, which show that pulses of warm water already arrive as far south as the ice front. This southward heat transport follows the eastern flank of the Filchner Depression and is found to be directly linked to the strength of a wind-driven coastal current. Our observations emphasize the potential sensitivity of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates to changes in wind forcing. PMID:27481659

Single Cell Detection with Driven Magnetic Beads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNaughton, B. H.; Agayan, R. R.; Stoica, V. A.; Clarke, R.; Kopelman, R.

Shifts in the nonlinear rotational frequency of magnetic beads (microspheres) offer a new and dynamic approach for the detection of single cells. We present the first demonstration of this capability by measuring the changes in the nonlinear rotational frequency of magnetic beads driven by an external magnetic field. The presence of an Escherichia coli bacterium on the surface of a 2.0 μm magnetic bead affects the drag of the system, thus changing the nonlinear rotation rate. Measurement of this rotational frequency is straight-forward utilizing standard microscopy techniques.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

Climate change and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Charles W. McHugh

2010-01-01

Studies have indicated that changes in wildland fire activity are, at least in part, a product of climate change. Fire danger indices, driven by climatology, should reflect these changes. Energy Release Component (ERC) is considered to be an effective indicator of drought conditions and seasonal drying of forest fuels and is often used in fire management planning....

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in auditory nerve responses across the duration of sinusoidally amplitude-modulated electric pulse-train stimuli.

PubMed

Hu, Ning; Miller, Charles A; Abbas, Paul J; Robinson, Barbara K; Woo, Jihwan

2010-12-01

Response rates of auditory nerve fibers (ANFs) to electric pulse trains change over time, reflecting substantial spike-rate adaptation that depends on stimulus parameters. We hypothesize that adaptation affects the representation of amplitude-modulated pulse trains used by cochlear prostheses to transmit speech information to the auditory system. We recorded cat ANF responses to sinusoidally amplitude-modulated (SAM) trains with 5,000 pulse/s carriers. Stimuli delivered by a monopolar intracochlear electrode had fixed modulation frequency (100 Hz) and depth (10%). ANF responses were assessed by spike-rate measures, while representation of modulation was evaluated by vector strength (VS) and the fundamental component of the fast Fourier transform (F(0) amplitude). These measures were assessed across the 400 ms duration of pulse-train stimuli, a duration relevant to speech stimuli. Different stimulus levels were explored and responses were categorized into four spike-rate groups to assess level effects across ANFs. The temporal pattern of rate adaptation to modulated trains was similar to that of unmodulated trains, but with less rate adaptation. VS to the modulator increased over time and tended to saturate at lower spike rates, while F(0) amplitude typically decreased over time for low driven rates and increased for higher driven rates. VS at moderate and high spike rates and degree of F(0) amplitude temporal changes at low and moderate spike rates were positively correlated with the degree of rate adaptation. Thus, high-rate carriers will modify the ANF representation of the modulator over time. As the VS and F(0) measures were sensitive to adaptation-related changes over different spike-rate ranges, there is value in assessing both measures.

Linkages between grazing history and herbivore exclusion on decomposition rates in mineral soils of subalpine grasslands

Treesearch

Alan G. Haynes; Martin Schutz; Nina Buchmann; Deborah S. Page-Dumroese; Matt D. Busse; Anita C. Risch

2014-01-01

Herbivore-driven changes to soil properties can influence the decomposition rate of organic material and therefore soil carbon cycling within grassland ecosystems. We investigated how aboveground foraging mammalian and invertebrate herbivores affect mineral soil decomposition rates and associated soil properties in two subalpine vegetation types (shortgrass and tall-...

Wind driven erosion and the effects of particulate electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrison, J. P.; Bak, E.; Finster, K.; Gunnlaugsson, H. P.; Holstein-Rathlou, C.; Knak Jensen, S.; Nørnberg, P.; Rasmussen, K. R.

2012-09-01

Several related aspects of Aeolian activity are presently being studied in the laboratory, the most recent advances in this field will be presented. These include simulating wind driven erosion in the laboratory, quantifying erosion rates and the study of mineral change due to mechanical activation. Also advances in our understanding of the electrification of sand/dust particles is being made and how this phenomenon affects their behavior.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Gingerich, Stephen B.; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I.; Field, Donald W.; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A.; McCall, Robert T.

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding.

PubMed

Storlazzi, Curt D; Gingerich, Stephen B; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia M; Swarzenski, Peter W; Quataert, Ellen; Voss, Clifford I; Field, Donald W; Annamalai, Hariharasubramanian; Piniak, Greg A; McCall, Robert

2018-04-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states. PMID:29707635

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

PubMed

Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

2016-03-15

Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

The association of graduated driver licensing with miles driven and fatal crash rates per miles driven among adolescents.

PubMed

Zhu, Motao; Cummings, Peter; Zhao, Songzhu; Coben, Jeffrey H; Smith, Gordon S

2015-04-01

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) laws are associated with reduced crash rates per person-year among adolescents. It is unknown whether adolescents crash less per miles driven or drive less under GDL policies. We used data from the US National Household Travel Survey and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1995-1996, 2001-2002 and 2008-2009. We compared adolescents subject to GDL laws with those not by estimating adjusted IRRs for being a driver in a crash with a death per person-year (aIRRpy) and per miles driven (aIRRm), and adjusted miles driven ratios (aMR) controlling for changes in rates over time. Comparing persons subject to GDL policies with those not, 16 year olds had fewer fatal crashes per person-year (aIRRpy 0.63, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.91), drove fewer miles (aMR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.98) and had lower crash rates per miles driven (aIRRm 0.83, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.06). For age 17, the aIRRpy was 0.83 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.17), the aMR 0.80 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.03) and the aIRRm 1.03 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.35). For age 18, the aIRRpy was 0.93 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.19), the aMR 0.92 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.09) and the aIRRm 1.01 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.23). If these associations are causal, GDL laws reduced crashes per person-year by about one-third among 16 year olds; half the reduction was due to fewer crashes per miles driven and half to less driving. For ages 17 and 18, there was no evidence of reduced crash rates per miles driven. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Observation of the L-H confinement bifurcation triggered by a turbulence-driven shear flow in a tokamak plasma.

PubMed

Yan, Z; McKee, G R; Fonck, R; Gohil, P; Groebner, R J; Osborne, T H

2014-03-28

Comprehensive 2D turbulence and eddy flow velocity measurements on DIII-D demonstrate a rapidly increasing turbulence-driven shear flow that develops ∼100  μs prior to the low-confinement (L mode) to high-confinement (H mode) transition and appears to trigger it. These changes are localized to a narrow layer 1-2 cm inside the magnetic boundary. Increasing heating power increases the Reynolds stress, the energy transfer from turbulence to the poloidal flow, and the edge flow shearing rate that then exceeds the decorrelation rate, suppressing turbulence and triggering the transition.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Development and Testing of a Shape Memory Alloy-Driven Composite Morphing Radiator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walgren, P.; Bertagne, C.; Wescott, M.; Benafan, O.; Erickson, L.; Whitcomb, J.; Hartl, D.

2018-03-01

Future crewed deep space missions will require thermal control systems that can accommodate larger fluctuations in temperature and heat rejection loads than current designs. To maintain the crew cabin at habitable temperatures throughout the entire mission profile, radiators will be required to exhibit turndown ratios (defined as the ratio between the maximum and minimum heat rejection rates) as high as 12:1. Potential solutions to increase radiator turndown ratios include designs that vary the heat rejection rate by changing shape, hence changing the rate of radiation to space. Shape memory alloys exhibit thermally driven phase transformations and thus can be used for both the control and actuation of such a morphing radiator with a single active structural component that transduces thermal energy into motion. This work focuses on designing a high-performance composite radiator panel and investigating the behavior of various SMA actuators in this application. Three designs were fabricated and subsequently tested in a relevant thermal vacuum environment; all three exhibited repeatable morphing behavior, and it is shown through validated computational analysis that the morphing radiator concept can achieve a turndown ratio of 27:1 with a number of simple configuration changes.

Metatranscriptomics reveals temperature-driven functional changes in microbiome impacting cheese maturation rate

PubMed Central

De Filippis, Francesca; Genovese, Alessandro; Ferranti, Pasquale; Gilbert, Jack A.; Ercolini, Danilo

2016-01-01

Traditional cheeses harbour complex microbial consortia that play an important role in shaping typical sensorial properties. However, the microbial metabolism is considered difficult to control. Microbial community succession and the related gene expression were analysed during ripening of a traditional Italian cheese, identifying parameters that could be modified to accelerate ripening. Afterwards, we modulated ripening conditions and observed consistent changes in microbial community structure and function. We provide concrete evidence of the essential contribution of non-starter lactic acid bacteria in ripening-related activities. An increase in the ripening temperature promoted the expression of genes related to proteolysis, lipolysis and amino acid/lipid catabolism and significantly increases the cheese maturation rate. Moreover, temperature-promoted microbial metabolisms were consistent with the metabolomic profiles of proteins and volatile organic compounds in the cheese. The results clearly indicate how processing-driven microbiome responses can be modulated in order to optimize production efficiency and product quality. PMID:26911915

Data-driven medicinal chemistry in the era of big data.

PubMed

Lusher, Scott J; McGuire, Ross; van Schaik, René C; Nicholson, C David; de Vlieg, Jacob

2014-07-01

Science, and the way we undertake research, is changing. The increasing rate of data generation across all scientific disciplines is providing incredible opportunities for data-driven research, with the potential to transform our current practices. The exploitation of so-called 'big data' will enable us to undertake research projects never previously possible but should also stimulate a re-evaluation of all our data practices. Data-driven medicinal chemistry approaches have the potential to improve decision making in drug discovery projects, providing that all researchers embrace the role of 'data scientist' and uncover the meaningful relationships and patterns in available data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Firn Thickness Changes (1982-2015) Driven by SMB from MERRA-2, RACMO2.3, ERA-Int and AVHRR Surface Temperature and the Impacts to Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Medley, B.; Neumann, T.; Smith, B. E.; Luthcke, S. B.; Zwally, H. J.

2016-12-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) data are essential in the derivation of ice sheet mass balance. This is because ice sheet mass change consists of short-term and long-term variations. The short-term variations are directly given by the SMB data. For altimetry based ice sheet mass balance studies, these short-term mass changes are converted to firn thickness changes by using a firn densification-elevation model, and then the variations are subtracted from the altimetry measurements to give the long-term ice thickness changes that are associated with the density of ice. So far various SMB data sets such as ERA-Interim, RACMO and MERRA are available and some have been widely used in large number of ice sheet mass balance studies. However theses data sets exhibit the clear discrepancies in both random and systematic manner. In this study, we use our time dependent firn densification- elevation model, driven by the SMB data from MERRA-2, RACMO2.3 and ERA-Int for the period of 1982-2015 and the temperature variations from AVHRR for the same period to examine the corresponding firn thickness variations and the impacts to the mass changes over the Greenland ice sheet. The model was initialized with the1980's climate. Our results show that the relative smaller (centimeter level) differences in the firn thickness driven by the different data set occur at the early stage (1980's) of the model run. As the time progressing, the discrepancies between the SMB data sets accumulate, and the corresponding firn thickness differences quickly become larger with the value > 2m at the end of the period. Although the overall rates for the whole period driven by each of the three data sets are small ranging -0.2 - 0.2 cm a-1 (-3.0-2.7 Gt a-1), the decadal rates can vary greatly with magnitude > 3 cm a-1 and the impact to the Greenland mass change exceeds 30 Gt a-1.

Torque Generation Mechanism of F1-ATPase upon NTP Binding

PubMed Central

Arai, Hidenobu C.; Yukawa, Ayako; Iwatate, Ryu John; Kamiya, Mako; Watanabe, Rikiya; Urano, Yasuteru; Noji, Hiroyuki

2014-01-01

Molecular machines fueled by NTP play pivotal roles in a wide range of cellular activities. One common feature among NTP-driven molecular machines is that NTP binding is a major force-generating step among the elementary reaction steps comprising NTP hydrolysis. To understand the mechanism in detail,in this study, we conducted a single-molecule rotation assay of the ATP-driven rotary motor protein F1-ATPase using uridine triphosphate (UTP) and a base-free nucleotide (ribose triphosphate) to investigate the impact of a pyrimidine base or base depletion on kinetics and force generation. Although the binding rates of UTP and ribose triphosphate were 103 and 106 times, respectively, slower than that of ATP, they supported rotation, generating torque comparable to that generated by ATP. Affinity change of F1 to UTP coupled with rotation was determined, and the results again were comparable to those for ATP, suggesting that F1 exerts torque upon the affinity change to UTP via rotation similar to ATP-driven rotation. Thus, the adenine-ring significantly enhances the binding rate, although it is not directly involved in force generation. Taking into account the findings from another study on F1 with mutated phosphate-binding residues, it was proposed that progressive bond formation between the phosphate region and catalytic residues is responsible for the rotation-coupled change in affinity. PMID:24988350

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Is lorazepam-induced amnesia specific to the type of memory or to the task used to assess it?

PubMed

File, S E; Sharma, R; Shaffer, J

1992-01-01

Retrieval tasks can be classified along a continuum from conceptually driven (relying on the encoded meaning of the material) to data driven (relying on the perceptual record and surface features of the material). Since most explicit memory tests are conceptually driven and most implicit memory tests are data driven there has been considerable confounding of the memory system being assessed and the processing required by the retrieval task. The purpose of the present experiment was to investigate the effects of lorazepam on explicit memory, using both types of retrieval task. Lorazepam (2.5 mg) or matched placebo was administered to healthy volunteers and changes in subjective mood ratings and in performance in tests of memory were measured. Lorazepam made subjects significantly more drowsy, feeble, clumsy, muzzy, lethargic and mentally slow. Lorazepam significantly impaired recognition memory for slides, impaired the number of words remembered when the retrieval was cued by the first two letters and reduced the number of pictures remembered when retention was cued with picture fragments. Thus episodic memory was impaired whether the task used was conceptually driven (as in slide recognition) or data driven, as in the other two tasks. Analyses of covariance indicated that the memory impairments were independent of increased sedation, as assessed by self-ratings. In contrast to the deficits in episodic memory, there were no lorazepam-induced impairments in tests of semantic memory, whether this was measured in the conceptually driven task of category generation or in the data-driven task of wordstem completion.

Baroclinic Adjustment of the Eddy-Driven Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, Lenka; Ambaum, Maarten H. P.; Harvey, Ben J.

2017-04-01

The prediction of poleward shift in the midlatitude eddy-driven jets due to anthropogenic climate change is now a robust feature of climate models, but the magnitude of this shift or the processes responsible for it are less certain. This uncertainty comes from the complex response in storm tracks to large-scale forcing and their nonlinear modulation of the jet. This study uses global circulation models to reveal a relationship between eddy growth rate (referred to as baroclinicity) and eddy activity, whereby baroclinicity responds most rapidly to an eddy-dissipating forcing whereas eddy activity responds most rapidly to a baroclinicity-replenishing forcing. This nonlinearity can be generally explained using a two-dimensional dynamical system essentially describing the baroclinic adjustment as a predator-prey relationship. Despite this nonlinearity, the barotropic changes in the eddy-driven jet appear to be of a comparable magnitude for the ranges of both types of forcing tested in this study. It is implied that while changes in eddy activity or baroclinicity may indicate the sign of latitudinal jet shifting, the precise magnitude of this shifting is a result of a balance between these two quantities.

A homeostatic-driven turnover remodelling constitutive model for healing in soft tissues

PubMed Central

Gasser, T. Christian; Bellomo, Facundo J.

2016-01-01

Remodelling of soft biological tissue is characterized by interacting biochemical and biomechanical events, which change the tissue's microstructure, and, consequently, its macroscopic mechanical properties. Remodelling is a well-defined stage of the healing process, and aims at recovering or repairing the injured extracellular matrix. Like other physiological processes, remodelling is thought to be driven by homeostasis, i.e. it tends to re-establish the properties of the uninjured tissue. However, homeostasis may never be reached, such that remodelling may also appear as a continuous pathological transformation of diseased tissues during aneurysm expansion, for example. A simple constitutive model for soft biological tissues that regards remodelling as homeostatic-driven turnover is developed. Specifically, the recoverable effective tissue damage, whose rate is the sum of a mechanical damage rate and a healing rate, serves as a scalar internal thermodynamic variable. In order to integrate the biochemical and biomechanical aspects of remodelling, the healing rate is, on the one hand, driven by mechanical stimuli, but, on the other hand, subjected to simple metabolic constraints. The proposed model is formulated in accordance with continuum damage mechanics within an open-system thermodynamics framework. The numerical implementation in an in-house finite-element code is described, particularized for Ogden hyperelasticity. Numerical examples illustrate the basic constitutive characteristics of the model and demonstrate its potential in representing aspects of remodelling of soft tissues. Simulation results are verified for their plausibility, but also validated against reported experimental data. PMID:27009177

A homeostatic-driven turnover remodelling constitutive model for healing in soft tissues.

PubMed

Comellas, Ester; Gasser, T Christian; Bellomo, Facundo J; Oller, Sergio

2016-03-01

Remodelling of soft biological tissue is characterized by interacting biochemical and biomechanical events, which change the tissue's microstructure, and, consequently, its macroscopic mechanical properties. Remodelling is a well-defined stage of the healing process, and aims at recovering or repairing the injured extracellular matrix. Like other physiological processes, remodelling is thought to be driven by homeostasis, i.e. it tends to re-establish the properties of the uninjured tissue. However, homeostasis may never be reached, such that remodelling may also appear as a continuous pathological transformation of diseased tissues during aneurysm expansion, for example. A simple constitutive model for soft biological tissues that regards remodelling as homeostatic-driven turnover is developed. Specifically, the recoverable effective tissue damage, whose rate is the sum of a mechanical damage rate and a healing rate, serves as a scalar internal thermodynamic variable. In order to integrate the biochemical and biomechanical aspects of remodelling, the healing rate is, on the one hand, driven by mechanical stimuli, but, on the other hand, subjected to simple metabolic constraints. The proposed model is formulated in accordance with continuum damage mechanics within an open-system thermodynamics framework. The numerical implementation in an in-house finite-element code is described, particularized for Ogden hyperelasticity. Numerical examples illustrate the basic constitutive characteristics of the model and demonstrate its potential in representing aspects of remodelling of soft tissues. Simulation results are verified for their plausibility, but also validated against reported experimental data. © 2016 The Author(s).

Thermal Disk Winds in X-Ray Binaries: Realistic Heating and Cooling Rates Give Rise to Slow, but Massive, Outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higginbottom, N.; Proga, D.; Knigge, C.; Long, K. S.

2017-02-01

A number of X-ray binaries exhibit clear evidence for the presence of disk winds in the high/soft state. A promising driving mechanism for these outflows is mass loss driven by the thermal expansion of X-ray heated material in the outer disk atmosphere. Higginbottom & Proga recently demonstrated that the properties of thermally driven winds depend critically on the shape of the thermal equilibrium curve, since this determines the thermal stability of the irradiated material. For a given spectral energy distribution, the thermal equilibrium curve depends on an exact balance between the various heating and cooling mechanisms at work. Most previous work on thermally driven disk winds relied on an analytical approximation to these rates. Here, we use the photoionization code cloudy to generate realistic heating and cooling rates which we then use in a 2.5D hydrodynamic model computed in ZEUS to simulate thermal winds in a typical black hole X-ray binary. We find that these heating and cooling rates produce a significantly more complex thermal equilibrium curve, with dramatically different stability properties. The resulting flow, calculated in the optically thin limit, is qualitatively different from flows calculated using approximate analytical rates. Specifically, our thermal disk wind is much denser and slower, with a mass-loss rate that is a factor of two higher and characteristic velocities that are a factor of three lower. The low velocity of the flow—{v}\\max ≃ 200 km s-1—may be difficult to reconcile with observations. However, the high mass-loss rate—15 × the accretion rate—is promising, since it has the potential to destabilize the disk. Thermally driven disk winds may therefore provide a mechanism for state changes.

Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in Cloud-Resolving Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, J.; Romps, D. M.

2015-12-01

Recent work by Singh and O'Gorman has produced a theory for convective available potential energy (CAPE) in radiative-convective equilibrium. In this model, the atmosphere deviates from a moist adiabat—and, therefore, has positive CAPE—because entrainment causes evaporative cooling in cloud updrafts, thereby steepening their lapse rate. This has led to the proposal that CAPE increases with global warming because the strength of evaporative cooling scales according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, CAPE could also change due to changes in cloud buoyancy and changes in the entrainment rate, both of which could vary with global warming. To test the relative importance of changes in CAPE due to CC scaling of evaporative cooling, changes in cloud buoyancy, and changes in the entrainment rate, we subject a cloud-resolving model to a suite of natural (and unnatural) forcings. We find that CAPE changes are primarily driven by changes in the strength of evaporative cooling; the effect of changes in the entrainment rate and cloud buoyancy are comparatively small. This builds support for CC scaling of CAPE.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyawira, S. S.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.

2017-08-01

Historical changes in soil carbon associated with land-use change (LUC) result mainly from the changes in the quantity of litter inputs to the soil and the turnover of carbon in soils. We use a factor separation technique to assess how the input-driven and turnover-driven controls, as well as their synergies, have contributed to historical changes in soil carbon associated with LUC. We apply this approach to equilibrium simulations of present-day and pre-industrial land use performed using the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH. Our results show that both the input-driven and turnover-driven changes generally contribute to a gain in soil carbon in afforested regions and a loss in deforested regions. However, in regions where grasslands have been converted to croplands, we find an input-driven loss that is partly offset by a turnover-driven gain, which stems from a decrease in the fire-related carbon losses. Omitting land management through crop and wood harvest substantially reduces the global losses through the input-driven changes. Our study thus suggests that the dominating control of soil carbon losses is via the input-driven changes, which are more directly accessible to human management than the turnover-driven ones.

Transportation and global climate change : a review and analysis of the literature

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

Studies have shown that older drivers have higher rates of accidents, injuries, and fatalities on a per-mile-driven basis. A major cause of roadway accidents for older drivers is failure to heed traffic signs. Previous research found that older drive...

Metatranscriptomics reveals temperature-driven functional changes in microbiome impacting cheese maturation rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Filippis, Francesca; Genovese, Alessandro; Ferranti, Pasquale

Traditional cheeses harbour complex microbial consortia that play an important role in shaping typical sensorial properties. However, the microbial metabolism is considered difficult to control. Microbial community succession and the related gene expression were analysed during ripening of a traditional Italian cheese, identifying parameters that could be modified to accelerate ripening. Afterwards, we modulated ripening conditions and observed consistent changes in microbial community structure and function. We provide concrete evidence of the essential contribution of non-starter lactic acid bacteria in ripening-related activities. An increase in the ripening temperature promoted the expression of genes related to proteolysis, lipolysis and amino acid/lipidmore » catabolism and significantly increases the cheese maturation rate. Moreover, temperature-promoted microbial metabolisms were consistent with the metabolomic profiles of proteins and volatile organic compounds in the cheese. Finally, the results clearly indicate how processing-driven microbiome responses can be modulated in order to optimize production efficiency and product quality.« less

Controlled rotation of the F1-ATPase reveals differential and continuous binding changes for ATP synthesis

PubMed Central

Adachi, Kengo; Oiwa, Kazuhiro; Yoshida, Masasuke; Nishizaka, Takayuki; Kinosita, Kazuhiko

2012-01-01

F1-ATPase is an ATP-driven rotary molecular motor that synthesizes ATP when rotated in reverse. To elucidate the mechanism of ATP synthesis, we imaged binding and release of fluorescently labelled ADP and ATP while rotating the motor in either direction by magnets. Here we report the binding and release rates for each of the three catalytic sites for 360° of the rotary angle. We show that the rates do not significantly depend on the rotary direction, indicating ATP synthesis by direct reversal of the hydrolysis-driven rotation. ADP and ATP are discriminated in angle-dependent binding, but not in release. Phosphate blocks ATP binding at angles where ADP binding is essential for ATP synthesis. In synthesis rotation, the affinity for ADP increases by >104, followed by a shift to high ATP affinity, and finally the affinity for ATP decreases by >104. All these angular changes are gradual, implicating tight coupling between the rotor angle and site affinities. PMID:22929779

Bioenergetic response by steelhead to variation in diet, thermal habitat, and climate in the north Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atcheson, Margaret E.; Myers, Katherine W.; Beauchamp, David A.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2012-01-01

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

Metatranscriptomics reveals temperature-driven functional changes in microbiome impacting cheese maturation rate

DOE PAGES

De Filippis, Francesca; Genovese, Alessandro; Ferranti, Pasquale; ...

2016-02-25

Traditional cheeses harbour complex microbial consortia that play an important role in shaping typical sensorial properties. However, the microbial metabolism is considered difficult to control. Microbial community succession and the related gene expression were analysed during ripening of a traditional Italian cheese, identifying parameters that could be modified to accelerate ripening. Afterwards, we modulated ripening conditions and observed consistent changes in microbial community structure and function. We provide concrete evidence of the essential contribution of non-starter lactic acid bacteria in ripening-related activities. An increase in the ripening temperature promoted the expression of genes related to proteolysis, lipolysis and amino acid/lipidmore » catabolism and significantly increases the cheese maturation rate. Moreover, temperature-promoted microbial metabolisms were consistent with the metabolomic profiles of proteins and volatile organic compounds in the cheese. Finally, the results clearly indicate how processing-driven microbiome responses can be modulated in order to optimize production efficiency and product quality.« less

Seasonal Drivers of Dissolved Metal Transport During Infiltration of Road Runoff in an Urban Roadside Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullins, A.; Bain, D.

2017-12-01

Infiltration-based green infrastructure (GI) is being increasingly applied in urban areas, systems characterized by substantial legacy contamination and complicated hydrology. However, it is not clear how the application of green infrastructure changes the geochemistry of urban roadside environments. Most current research on GI focuses on small sets of chemical parameters (e.g. road salt, nitrogen and phosphorous species) over relatively short time periods, limiting comprehensive understanding of geochemical function. This work measures changes in groundwater infiltration rate and dissolved metal concentrations in two infiltration trenches in Pittsburgh, PA to evaluate function and measure dissolved metal transport from the system over time. Two distinct geochemical regimes seem to be driven by seasonality: road de-icer exchange and microbial driven summer reducing conditions. Interactions between these geochemical regimes and variability in infiltration rate control the flux of different metals, varying with metal chemistry. These findings suggest the adoption of infiltration based green infrastructure will likely create complicated patterns of legacy contamination transport to downstream receptors.

75 FR 75501 - Notice of Permit Applications Received Under the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-541)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... surface of ponds. The goal of the project is to define the rate of geomorphic change in Garwood Valley in response to changing climate conditions. The geomorphic record will be reconstructed over the past 1-=2- kyr to infer past climate-driven landscape alteration at the end of the LGM and examine the current...

76 FR 9611 - Notice of Permit Applications Received Under the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-541)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-18

... 20g each. The goal of the project is to define the rate of geomorphic change in Garwood Valley in response to changing climate conditions. The geomorphic record will be reconstructed over the past 1- = 2-kyr to infer past climate-driven landscape alteration at the end of the LGM and examine the current...

DYNARIP: A technique for regional forest inventory projection and policy analysis

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

1984-01-01

DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the treatments and disturbances experienced by the forest resources of an entire State or regional area. It can also isolate the impact of any one of the 27 man-caused or natural disturbances (including natural succession and forest land-base changes). The model is driven by empirical rates of change as...

Reduced intrinsic heart rate is associated with reduced arrhythmic susceptibility in guinea-pig heart.

PubMed

Osadchii, Oleg E

2014-12-01

In the clinical setting, patients with slower resting heart rate are less prone to cardiovascular death compared with those with elevated heart rate. However, electrophysiological adaptations associated with reduced cardiac rhythm have not been thoroughly explored. In this study, relationships between intrinsic heart rate and arrhythmic susceptibility were examined by assessments of action potential duration (APD) rate adaptation and inducibility of repolarization alternans in sinoatrial node (SAN)-driven and atrioventricular (AV)-blocked guinea-pig hearts perfused with Langendorff apparatus. Electrocardiograms, epicardial monophasic action potentials, and effective refractory periods (ERP) were assessed in normokalemic and hypokalemic conditions. Slower basal heart rate in AV-blocked hearts was associated with prolonged ventricular repolarization during spontaneous beating, and with attenuated APD shortening at increased cardiac activation rates during dynamic pacing, when compared with SAN-driven hearts. During hypokalemic perfusion, the inducibility of repolarization alternans and tachyarrhythmia by rapid pacing was found to be lower in AV-blocked hearts. This difference was ascribed to prolonged ERP in the setting of reduced basal heart rate, which prevented ventricular capture at critically short pacing intervals required to induce arrhythmia. Reduced basal heart rate is associated with electrophysiological changes that prevent electrical instability upon an abrupt cardiac acceleration.

Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000-2014 in the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinet, A.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Le Cozannet, G.; Déqué, M.; Charles, E.

2016-12-01

Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000-2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

Power- or frequency-driven hysteresis for continuous-wave optically injected distributed-feedback semiconductor lasers.

PubMed

Blin, Stéphane; Vaudel, Olivier; Besnard, Pascal; Gabet, Renaud

2009-05-25

Bistabilities between a steady (or pulsating, chaotic) and different pulsating regimes are investigated for an optically injected semi-conductor laser. Both numerical and experimental studies are reported for continuous-wave single-mode semiconductor distributed-feedback lasers emitting at 1.55 microm. Hysteresis are driven by either changing the optically injected power or the frequency difference between both lasers. The effect of the injected laser pumping rate is also examined. Systematic mappings of the possible laser outputs (injection locking, bimodal, wave mixing, chaos or relaxation oscillations) are carried out. At small pumping rates (1.2 times threshold), only locking and bimodal regimes are observed. The extent of the bistable area is either 11 dB or 35 GHz, depending on the varying parameters. At high pumping rates (4 times threshold), numerous injection regimes are observed. Injection locking and its bistabilities are also reported for secondary longitudinal modes.

Electro-osmotically driven liquid delivery method and apparatus

DOEpatents

Rakestraw, David J.; Anex, Deon S.; Yan, Chao; Dadoo, Rajeev; Zare, Richard N.

1999-01-01

Method and apparatus for controlling precisely the composition and delivery of liquid at sub-.mu.L/min flow rate. One embodiment of such a delivery system is an electro-osmotically driven gradient flow delivery system that generates dynamic gradient flows with sub-.mu.L/min flow rates by merging a plurality of electro-osmotic flows. These flows are delivered by a plurality of delivery arms attached to a mixing connector, where they mix and then flow into a receiving means, preferably a column. Each inlet of the plurality of delivery arms is placed in a corresponding solution reservoir. A plurality of independent programmable high-voltage power supplies is used to apply a voltage program to each of the plurality of solution reservoirs to regulate the electro-osmotic flow in each delivery arm. The electro-osmotic flow rates in the delivery arms are changed with time according to each voltage program to deliver the required gradient profile to the column.

In situ insights into shock-driven reactive flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dattelbaum, Dana

2017-06-01

Shock-driven reactions are commonplace. Examples include the detonation of high explosives, shock-driven dissociation of polymers, and transformation of carbon from graphite to diamond phases. The study of shock-driven chemical reactions is important for understanding reaction thresholds, their mechanisms and rates, and associated state sensitivities under the extreme conditions generated by shock compression. Reactions are distinguished by their thermicity - e.g. the volume and enthalpy changes along the reaction coordinate. A survey of the hallmarks of shock-driven reactivity for a variety of simple molecules and polymers will be presented, including benzene, acetylenes and nitriles, and formic acid. Many of the examples will illustrate the nature of the reactive flow through particle velocity wave profiles measured by in situ electromagnetic gauging in gas gun-driven plate impact experiments. General trends will be presented linking molecular moieties, shock temperatures, and reaction state sensitivities. Progress in applying bond-specific diagnostics will also be presented, including time-resolved Raman spectroscopy, and recent results of in situ x-ray diffraction of carbon at the Linac Coherent Light Souce (LCLS) free electron laser.

Revitalization of Nonstandard Calculus.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fetta, Iris B.

This project developed materials for an innovative new approach to calculus for students in business, economics, liberal arts, management, and the social sciences. With the focus on rates and accumulation of change and their interpretations in real life situations, the materials are data driven, technology based, and feature a unique modeling…

Negative and positive life events are associated with small but lasting change in neuroticism.

PubMed

Jeronimus, B F; Ormel, J; Aleman, A; Penninx, B W J H; Riese, H

2013-11-01

High neuroticism is prospectively associated with psychopathology and physical health. However, within-subject changes in neuroticism due to life experiences (LEs) or state effects of current psychopathology are largely unexplored. In this 2-year follow-up study, four hypotheses were tested: (1) positive LEs (PLEs) decrease and negative LEs (NLEs) increase neuroticism; (2) LE-driven change in neuroticism is partly long-lasting; and (3) partly independent of LE-driven changes in anxiety/depression; and (4) childhood adversity (before age 16 years) moderates the influence of NLEs/PLEs on neuroticism scores in adult life. Data came from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety [NESDA, n = 2981, mean age 41.99 years (s.d. = 13.08), 66.6% women]. At follow-up (T₂) we assessed PLEs/NLEs with the List of Threatening Experiences (LTE) over the prior 24 months and categorized them over recent and distant PLE/NLE measures (1-3 and 4-24 months prior to T₂ respectively) to distinguish distant NLE/PLE-driven change in trait neuroticism (using the Dutch version of the Neuroticism-Extroversion-Openness Five Factor Inventory, NEO-FFI) from state deviations due to changes in symptoms of depression (self-rated version of the 30-item Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology, IDS-SR30) and anxiety (Beck Anxiety Inventory, BAI). Distant NLEs were associated with higher and distant PLEs with lower neuroticism scores. The effects of distant LEs were weak but long-lasting, especially for distant PLEs. Distant NLE-driven change in neuroticism was associated with change in symptoms of anxiety/depression whereas the effect of distant PLEs on neuroticism was independent of any such changes. Childhood adversity weakened the impact of distant NLEs but enhanced the impact of distant PLEs on neuroticism. Distant PLEs are associated with small but long-lasting decreases in neuroticism regardless of changes in symptom levels of anxiety/depression. Long-lasting increases in neuroticism associated with distant NLEs are mediated by anxiety/depression.

Stochastic modeling indicates that aging and somatic evolution in the hematopoetic system are driven by non-cell-autonomous processes.

PubMed

Rozhok, Andrii I; Salstrom, Jennifer L; DeGregori, James

2014-12-01

Age-dependent tissue decline and increased cancer incidence are widely accepted to be rate-limited by the accumulation of somatic mutations over time. Current models of carcinogenesis are dominated by the assumption that oncogenic mutations have defined advantageous fitness effects on recipient stem and progenitor cells, promoting and rate-limiting somatic evolution. However, this assumption is markedly discrepant with evolutionary theory, whereby fitness is a dynamic property of a phenotype imposed upon and widely modulated by environment. We computationally modeled dynamic microenvironment-dependent fitness alterations in hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) within the Sprengel-Liebig system known to govern evolution at the population level. Our model for the first time integrates real data on age-dependent dynamics of HSC division rates, pool size, and accumulation of genetic changes and demonstrates that somatic evolution is not rate-limited by the occurrence of mutations, but instead results from aged microenvironment-driven alterations in the selective/fitness value of previously accumulated genetic changes. Our results are also consistent with evolutionary models of aging and thus oppose both somatic mutation-centric paradigms of carcinogenesis and tissue functional decline. In total, we demonstrate that aging directly promotes HSC fitness decline and somatic evolution via non-cell-autonomous mechanisms.

Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyawira, Sylvia; Nabel, Julia; Brovkin, Victor; Pongratz, Julia

2017-04-01

Modelling studies estimate a global loss in soil carbon caused by land-use changes (LUCs) over the last century. Although it is known that this loss stems from the changes in quantity of litter inputs from the vegetation to the soil (input-driven) and the changes in turnover of carbon in the soil (turnover-driven) associated with LUC, the individual contribution of these two controls to the total changes have not been assessed. Using the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH, we apply a factor separation approach to isolate the contribution of the input-driven and turnover-driven changes, as well as their synergies, to the total changes in soil carbon from LUC. To assess how land management through crop and wood harvest influences the controls, we compare our results for simulations with and without land management. Our results reveal that for the afforested regions both the input-driven and turnover-driven changes generally result in soil carbon gain, whereas deforested regions exhibit a loss. However, for regions where croplands have increased at the expense of grasslands and pastures, the input-driven changes result in a loss that is partly offset by a gain via the turnover-driven changes. This gain stems from a decrease in the fire-related carbon losses when grasslands or pastures are replaced with croplands. Omitting land management reduces the carbon losses in regions where natural vegetation has been converted to croplands and enhances the gain in afforested regions. The global simulated losses are substantially reduced from 54.0 Pg C to 22.0 Pg C, with the input-driven losses reducing from 54.7 Pg C to 24.9 Pg C. Our study shows that the dominating control of soil carbon losses is through the input-driven changes, which are more directly influenced by human management than the turnover-driven ones.

Prehistorical and historical declines in Caribbean coral reef accretion rates driven by loss of parrotfish

PubMed Central

Cramer, Katie L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Clark, Tara R.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Norris, Richard D.

2017-01-01

Caribbean coral reefs have transformed into algal-dominated habitats over recent decades, but the mechanisms of change are unresolved due to a lack of quantitative ecological data before large-scale human impacts. To understand the role of reduced herbivory in recent coral declines, we produce a high-resolution 3,000 year record of reef accretion rate and herbivore (parrotfish and urchin) abundance from the analysis of sediments and fish, coral and urchin subfossils within cores from Caribbean Panama. At each site, declines in accretion rates and parrotfish abundance were initiated in the prehistorical or historical period. Statistical tests of direct cause and effect relationships using convergent cross mapping reveal that accretion rates are driven by parrotfish abundance (but not vice versa) but are not affected by total urchin abundance. These results confirm the critical role of parrotfish in maintaining coral-dominated reef habitat and the urgent need for restoration of parrotfish populations to enable reef persistence. PMID:28112169

Short-term changes in general and memory-specific control beliefs and their relationship to cognition in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Bielak, Allison A M; Hultsch, David F; Levy-Ajzenkopf, Judi; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael A; Strauss, Esther

2007-01-01

We examined short-term changes in younger and older adults' control beliefs. Participants completed measures of general and memory-specific competence and locus of control on 10 bi-monthly occasions. At each occasion, participants rated their control beliefs prior to and following completion of a battery of cognitive tasks. Exposure to the set of cognitively demanding tasks led to declines in older adults' ratings of both general and memory-specific competence compared to little change or increases in younger adults' ratings. Older adults were also more inconsistent in their reported locus of control beliefs across the 10 occasions. Analyses examining the relationship between control beliefs and actual cognitive performance revealed few significant effects, suggesting that short-term changes in perceived control are not driven by monitoring changes in actual performance. The results suggest the importance of assessing short-term as well as long-term changes in perceived control to obtain a complete picture of aging-related changes.

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

2013-09-01

Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our opinion, the continued development of biophysical models that close the life cycle (depict all life stages) offers the best chance of revealing processes causing historical fluctuations on the productivity and distribution of small pelagic fishes and to project future climate-driven impacts. Correctly representing physiological-based mechanisms will increase confidence in the outcomes of models simulating the potential impacts of bottom-up processes, a first step towards evaluating the mixture of factors and processes (e.g. intra-guild dynamics, predation, fisheries exploitation) which interact with climate to affect populations of small pelagic fishes. Understand the impacts of reduced growth rates during the juvenile stage on the process of maturation and spawning condition of small pelagic fishes. Examine the effects of changes in prey quality on the duration and magnitude of spawning by small pelagic fishes to capture how climate-driven changes in zooplankton species composition might act as a “bottom-up” regulator of fish productivity. Identify the drivers for spawning location and timing to better understand how spawning dynamics may be influenced by climate change (e.g. changes in water salinity or turbidity resulting from changes in river discharges or wind-driven turbulence, respectively).

Boundary Condition Effects on Hillslope Form and Soil Development Along a Climatic Gradient From Semiarid to Hyperarid in Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, J. J.; Dietrich, W. E.; Nishiizumi, K.; Bellugi, D.; Amundson, R.

2008-12-01

Modeling the development of hillslopes using mass balance equations has generated many testable hypotheses related to morphology, process rates, and soil properties, however it is only relatively recently that techniques for constraining these models (such as cosmogenic radionuclides) have become commonplace. As such, many hypotheses related to the effects of boundary conditions or climate on process rates and soil properties have been left untested. We selected pairs of hillslopes along a precipitation gradient in northern Chile (24°-30° S) which were either bounded by actively eroding (bedrock-bedded) channels or by stable or aggradational landforms (pediments, colluvial aprons, valley bottoms). For each hillslope we measured soil properties, atmospheric deposition rates, and bedrock denudation rates. We observe significant changes in soil properties with climate: there is a shift from thick, weathered soils in the semiarid south, to the near absence of soil in the arid middle, to salt-rich soils in the hyperarid north. Coincident with these are dramatic changes in the types and rates of processes acting on the soils. We found relatively quick, biotically-driven soil formation and transport in the south, and very slow, salt-driven processes in the north. Additionally, we observe systematic differences between hillslopes of different boundary condition within the same climate zone, such as thicker soils, gentler slopes, and slower erosion rates on hillslopes with a non-eroding boundary versus an eroding boundary. These support general predictions based on hillslope soil mass balance equations and geomorphic transport laws. Using parameters derived from our field data, we attempt to use a mass balance model of hillslope development to explore the effect of changing boundary conditions and/or shifting climate.

Global Climate Change - The Power Generation Challenge

EPA Science Inventory

The planet continues to warm; O.5 C from the 1970’s to the 2000’s. Also, worldwide CO2 emissions have increased at a 3% annual growth rate from 2000 to 2010. Such emissions are driven by fossil fuel combustion, especially in the power generation sector, & especial...

Easy Money? The Fuzzy Math of Online Fund-Raising.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Struck, Myron

2001-01-01

Schools should beware questionable practices of many dot.com companies offering attractive rebates for purchases made online. High rebate rates are often designed to drive traffic to a particular site, but fine print can change overnight. Companies' connections to schools are tenuous and are driven by profit. (MLH)

Advances in Online Developmental Education: An Accelerated, Synchronous Approach at Rasmussen College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doherty, Brooks

2016-01-01

Driven by faculty-based action research, redesigned residential and online courses, and changes to placement testing, Rasmussen College increased its developmental education pass rates by double digits while decreasing the number and percentage of students who require remedial coursework. Like many institutions of higher education, Rasmussen…

Specialization and generalization in the diversification of phytophagous insects: tests of the musical chairs and oscillation hypotheses

PubMed Central

Hardy, Nate B.; Otto, Sarah P.

2014-01-01

Evolutionary biologists have often assumed that ecological generalism comes at the expense of less intense exploitation of specific resources and that this trade-off will promote the evolution of ecologically specialized daughter species. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with butterflies as a model system, we test hypotheses that incorporate changes in niche breadth and location into explanations of the taxonomic diversification of insect herbivores. Specifically, we compare the oscillation hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant generalists giving rise to specialist daughter species, to the musical chairs hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant switching, without changes in niche breadth. Contrary to the predictions of the oscillation hypothesis, we recover a negative relationship between host-plant breadth and diversification rate and find that changes in host breadth are seldom coupled to speciation events. By contrast, we present evidence for a positive relationship between rates of host switching and butterfly diversification, consonant with the musical chairs hypothesis. These results suggest that the costs of trophic generalism in plant-feeding insects may have been overvalued and that transitions from generalists to ecological specialists may not be an important driver of speciation in general. PMID:25274368

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Erosion of Northern Hemisphere blanket peatlands under 21st-century climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Pengfei; Holden, Joseph; Irvine, Brian; Mu, Xingmin

2017-04-01

Peatlands are important terrestrial carbon stores particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Many peatlands, such as those in the British Isles, Sweden, and Canada, have undergone increased erosion, resulting in degraded water quality and depleted soil carbon stocks. It is unclear how climate change may impact future peat erosion. Here we use a physically based erosion model (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment-PEAT), driven by seven different global climate models (GCMs), to predict fluvial blanket peat erosion in the Northern Hemisphere under 21st-century climate change. After an initial decline, total hemispheric blanket peat erosion rates are found to increase during 2070-2099 (2080s) compared with the baseline period (1961-1990) for most of the GCMs. Regional erosion variability is high with changes to baseline ranging between -1.27 and +21.63 t ha-1 yr-1 in the 2080s. These responses are driven by effects of temperature (generally more dominant) and precipitation change on weathering processes. Low-latitude and warm blanket peatlands are at most risk to fluvial erosion under 21st-century climate change.

Safety analysis of proposed data-driven physiologic alarm parameters for hospitalized children.

PubMed

Goel, Veena V; Poole, Sarah F; Longhurst, Christopher A; Platchek, Terry S; Pageler, Natalie M; Sharek, Paul J; Palma, Jonathan P

2016-12-01

Modification of alarm limits is one approach to mitigating alarm fatigue. We aimed to create and validate heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) percentiles for hospitalized children, and analyze the safety of replacing current vital sign reference ranges with proposed data-driven, age-stratified 5th and 95th percentile values. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, nurse-charted HR and RR data from a training set of 7202 hospitalized children were used to develop percentile tables. We compared 5th and 95th percentile values with currently accepted reference ranges in a validation set of 2287 patients. We analyzed 148 rapid response team (RRT) and cardiorespiratory arrest (CRA) events over a 12-month period, using HR and RR values in the 12 hours prior to the event, to determine the proportion of patients with out-of-range vitals based upon reference versus data-driven limits. There were 24,045 (55.6%) fewer out-of-range measurements using data-driven vital sign limits. Overall, 144/148 RRT and CRA patients had out-of-range HR or RR values preceding the event using current limits, and 138/148 were abnormal using data-driven limits. Chart review of RRT and CRA patients with abnormal HR and RR per current limits considered normal by data-driven limits revealed that clinical status change was identified by other vital sign abnormalities or clinical context. A large proportion of vital signs in hospitalized children are outside presently used norms. Safety evaluation of data-driven limits suggests they are as safe as those currently used. Implementation of these parameters in physiologic monitors may mitigate alarm fatigue. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;11:817-823. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine.

14 CFR 36.9 - Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. 36.9 Section 36.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION General § 36.9 Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. For propeller-driven small airplanes in the primary, normal, utility...

14 CFR 36.9 - Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. 36.9 Section 36.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION General § 36.9 Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. For propeller-driven small airplanes in the primary, normal, utility...

14 CFR 36.9 - Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. 36.9 Section 36.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION General § 36.9 Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. For propeller-driven small airplanes in the primary, normal, utility...

14 CFR 36.9 - Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. 36.9 Section 36.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION General § 36.9 Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. For propeller-driven small airplanes in the primary, normal, utility...

14 CFR 36.9 - Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. 36.9 Section 36.9 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL... AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATION General § 36.9 Acoustical change: Propeller-driven small airplanes and propeller-driven commuter category airplanes. For propeller-driven small airplanes in the primary, normal, utility...

Sensitivity of alpha-particle-driven Alfvén eigenmodes to q-profile variation in ITER scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, P.; Figueiredo, A. C. A.; Borba, D.; Coelho, R.; Fazendeiro, L.; Ferreira, J.; Loureiro, N. F.; Nabais, F.; Pinches, S. D.; Polevoi, A. R.; Sharapov, S. E.

2016-11-01

A perturbative hybrid ideal-MHD/drift-kinetic approach to assess the stability of alpha-particle-driven Alfvén eigenmodes in burning plasmas is used to show that certain foreseen ITER scenarios, namely the {{I}\\text{p}}=15 MA baseline scenario with very low and broad core magnetic shear, are sensitive to small changes in the background magnetic equilibrium. Slight variations (of the order of 1% ) of the safety-factor value on axis are seen to cause large changes in the growth rate, toroidal mode number, and radial location of the most unstable eigenmodes found. The observed sensitivity is shown to proceed from the very low magnetic shear values attained throughout the plasma core, raising issues about reliable predictions of alpha-particle transport in burning plasmas.

Tectonic and Magmatic Controls on Extension and Crustalaccretion in Backarc Basins, Insights from the Lau Basin and Southern Mariana Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeper, Jonathan D.

This dissertation examines magmatic and tectonic processes in backarc basins, and how they are modulated by plate- and mantle-driven mechanisms. Backarc basins initiate by tectonic rifting near the arc volcanic front and transition to magmatic seafloor spreading. As at mid-ocean ridges (MORs), spreading can be focused in narrow plate boundary zones, but we also describe a diffuse spreading mode particular to backarc basins. At typical MORs away from hot spots and other melting anomalies, spreading rate is the primary control on the rate of mantle upwelling and decompression melting. At backarc spreading centers, water derived from the subducting slab creates an additional mantle-driven source of melt and buoyant upwelling. Furthermore, because basins open primarily in response to trench rollback, which is inherently a non-rigid process, backarc extensional systems often have to respond to a constantly evolving stress regime, generating complex tectonics and unusual plate boundaries not typically found at MORs. The interplay between these plate- and mantle-driven processes gives rise to the variety of tectonic and volcanic morphologies peculiar to backarc basins. Chapter 2 is focused on the Fonualei Rift and Spreading Center in the Lau Basin. The southern portion of the axis is spreading at ultraslow (<20 mm/yr) opening rates in close proximity to the arc volcanic front and axial morphology abruptly changes from a volcanic ridge to spaced volcanic cones resembling arc volcanoes. Spreading rate and arc proximity appear to control transitions between two-dimensional and three-dimensional mantle upwelling and volcanism. In the second study (Chapter 3), I develop a new model for the rollback-driven kinematic and tectonic evolution of the Lau Basin, where microplate tectonics creates rapidly changing plate boundary configurations. The third study (Chapter 4) focuses on the southern Mariana Trough and the transitions between arc rifting, seafloor spreading, and a new mode of "diffuse spreading," where new crust is accreted in broad zones rather than along a narrow spreading axis, apparently controlled by a balance between slab water addition and its extraction due to melting and crustal accretion.

Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines

PubMed Central

Barros, Ceres; Guéguen, Maya; Douzet, Rolland; Carboni, Marta; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

2017-01-01

Summary 1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment. PMID:28670002

Innovative Math for Liberal Arts Majors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strasser, Nora

2011-01-01

An innovative Math for Liberal Arts course was designed to provide liberal arts students with the life skills necessary to survive in the 21st century. The course emphasizes application driven mathematics. This course has been successful in changing students' perceptions of the usefulness of the course and improving student success rate as well as…

Efficient E-Learning by Dint of Cognitive Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asaph, Amudha; Raja, B. William Dharma

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to portray the effective ways of utilizing cognitive abilities for efficient e-learning. In the present scenario, globalization and advancements in technology have driven changes in the sphere of social, technological, economic environment and political landscapes at a rapid rate. E-learning is, one among the new…

Granular flow through an aperture: influence of the packing fraction.

PubMed

Aguirre, M A; De Schant, R; Géminard, J-C

2014-07-01

For the last 50 years, the flow of a granular material through an aperture has been intensely studied in gravity-driven vertical systems (e.g., silos and hoppers). Nevertheless, in many industrial applications, grains are horizontally transported at constant velocity, lying on conveyor belts or floating on the surface of flowing liquids. Unlike fluid flows, that are controlled by the pressure, granular flow is not sensitive to the local pressure but rather to the local velocity of the grains at the outlet. We can also expect the flow rate to depend on the local density of the grains. Indeed, vertical systems are packed in dense configurations by gravity, but, in contrast, in horizontal systems the density can take a large range of values, potentially very small, which may significantly alter the flow rate. In the present article, we study, for different initial packing fractions, the discharge through an orifice of monodisperse grains driven at constant velocity by a horizontal conveyor belt. We report how, during the discharge, the packing fraction is modified by the presence of the outlet, and we analyze how changes in the packing fraction induce variations in the flow rate. We observe that variations of packing fraction do not affect the velocity of the grains at the outlet, and, therefore, we establish that flow-rate variations are directly related to changes in the packing fraction.

Granular flow through an aperture: Influence of the packing fraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguirre, M. A.; De Schant, R.; Géminard, J.-C.

2014-07-01

For the last 50 years, the flow of a granular material through an aperture has been intensely studied in gravity-driven vertical systems (e.g., silos and hoppers). Nevertheless, in many industrial applications, grains are horizontally transported at constant velocity, lying on conveyor belts or floating on the surface of flowing liquids. Unlike fluid flows, that are controlled by the pressure, granular flow is not sensitive to the local pressure but rather to the local velocity of the grains at the outlet. We can also expect the flow rate to depend on the local density of the grains. Indeed, vertical systems are packed in dense configurations by gravity, but, in contrast, in horizontal systems the density can take a large range of values, potentially very small, which may significantly alter the flow rate. In the present article, we study, for different initial packing fractions, the discharge through an orifice of monodisperse grains driven at constant velocity by a horizontal conveyor belt. We report how, during the discharge, the packing fraction is modified by the presence of the outlet, and we analyze how changes in the packing fraction induce variations in the flow rate. We observe that variations of packing fraction do not affect the velocity of the grains at the outlet, and, therefore, we establish that flow-rate variations are directly related to changes in the packing fraction.

ENSO-Driven Variability of Denitrification and Suboxia in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Simon; Gruber, Nicolas; Long, Matthew C.; Vogt, Meike

2017-10-01

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification (WCD). In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model over the period 1948 to 2009 to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large variations in the rates of WCD in this region. During mature La Niña (El Niño) conditions, peak denitrification rates are up to 70% higher (lower) than the mean rates. This large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export in such a way that the response of WCD is strongly amplified. During average La Niña (El Niño) conditions, the overall changes in ODZ structure and primarily the shoaling (deepening) of the upper boundary of both ODZs by 40 to 100 m explains 50% of the changes in WCD in the North Pacific and 94% in the South Pacific. Such a large variability of WCD in the ETP has strong implications for the assessments of trends, the balance of the marine N cycle and the emission of the greenhouse gas N2O.

Increased Exposure to Rigid Routines can Lead to Increased Challenging Behavior Following Changes to Those Routines.

PubMed

Bull, Leah E; Oliver, Chris; Callaghan, Eleanor; Woodcock, Kate A

2015-06-01

Several neurodevelopmental disorders are associated with preference for routine and challenging behavior following changes to routines. We examine individuals with Prader-Willi syndrome, who show elevated levels of this behavior, to better understand how previous experience of a routine can affect challenging behavior elicited by disruption to that routine. Play based challenges exposed 16 participants to routines, which were either adhered to or changed. Temper outburst behaviors, heart rate and movement were measured. As participants were exposed to routines for longer before a change (between 10 and 80 min; within participants), more temper outburst behaviors were elicited by changes. Increased emotional arousal was also elicited, which was indexed by heart rate increases not driven by movement. Further study will be important to understand whether current intervention approaches that limit exposure to changes, may benefit from the structured integration of flexibility to ensure that the opportunity for routine establishment is also limited.

An Analytical Approach to the Evolution and Death of AGB Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prager, Henry Alexander; Willson, Lee Anne M.; Marengo, Massimo; Creech-Eakman, Michelle J.

2017-01-01

Pop. I and II stars have a significant amount of metals throughout their structure, In the final stages of their evolution, intermediate mass stars (between 0.7 and 2 solar masses) ascend the Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). During their last few hundred thousand years on the AGB, these stars quickly lose their envelopes, recycling their metals as dust into the interstellar medium. The rate at which this happens consequently impacts the formation rate of stars, stellar systems, and the wider distribution of s-process isotopes.At the end of their life cycles, AGB stars experience a steep increase in mass loss rate. We can define the death line in two steps. First we define the critical mass loss rate to be where the mass loss rate equals the initial mass divided by the evolution time. Then the death line is where the rate of change of logMdot equals the rate of change of logL. Most of the stars we observe to be rapidly losing mass appear in the death zone between 0.1 and 10 times the critical mass loss rate.Assuming the mass loss rate increases exponentially with time, or, equivalently, the luminosity increases as a power of a characteristic exponent b, then the width of the death zone is the change in logL. This directly implies time is inversely proportional to b. This can be found for any mass-loss rate formula near the death line. By combining this with what we know about the initial-final mass relation and the core mass-luminosity relation, we can test for b with three observables — duration (width) of the death zone, the amplitude of mass loss variations (when L varies on an observable time scale such as a shell flash), and distributions of luminosity and pulsation period.By applying the initial mass function (IMF) and star formation rate (SFR) of an observed region, we can relate these observables to the characteristic exponent. We will need to look at nearby regions where we can see large numbers of AGB stars, such as the Magellanic clouds. We will show that by fixing the death line and the characteristic exponent that intermediate changes in the mass loss rate better fit observations than extreme values. This is consistent with dust-driven as opposed to pulsation-driven processes.

Empirical evidence of climate's role in Rocky Mountain landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, Catherine A.; Reiners, Peter W.

2012-06-01

Climate may be the dominant factor affecting landscape evolution during the late Cenozoic, but models that connect climate and landscape evolution cannot be tested without precise ages of landforms. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages of clinker, metamorphosed rock formed by burning of underlying coal seams, provide constraints on the spatial and temporal patterns of Quaternary erosion in the Powder River basin of Wyoming and Montana. The age distribution of 86 sites shows two temporal patterns: (1) a bias toward younger ages because of erosion of older clinker and (2) periodic occurrence of coal fires likely corresponding with particular climatic regimes. Statistical t tests of the ages and spectral analyses of the age probability density function indicate that these episodes of frequent coal fires most likely correspond with times of high eccentricity in Earth's orbit, possibly driven by increased seasonality in the region causing increased erosion rates and coal exhumation. Correlation of ages with interglacial time periods is weaker. The correlations between climate and coal fires improve when only samples greater than 50 km from the front of the Bighorn Range, the site of the nearest alpine glaciation, are compared. Together, these results indicate that the interaction between upstream glaciation and downstream erosion is likely not the dominant control on Quaternary landscape evolution in the Powder River basin, particularly since 0.5 Ma. Instead, incision rates are likely controlled by the response of streams to climate shifts within the basin itself, possibly changes in local precipitation rates or frequency-magnitude distributions, with no discernable lag time between climate changes and landscape responses. Clinker ages are consistent with numerical models in which stream erosion is driven by fluctuations in stream power on thousand year timescales within the basins, possibly as a result of changing precipitation patterns, and is driven by regional rock uplift on million year timescales.

Modelling of subarachnoid space width changes in apnoea resulting as a function of blood flow parameters.

PubMed

Kalicka, Renata; Mazur, Kamila; Wolf, Jacek; Frydrychowski, Andrzej F; Narkiewicz, Krzysztof; Winklewski, Pawel J

2017-09-01

During apnoea, the pial artery is subjected to two opposite physiological processes: vasoconstriction due to elevated blood pressure and vasorelaxation driven by rising pH in the brain parenchyma. We hypothesized that the pial artery response to apnoea may vary, depending on which process dominate. Apnoea experiments were performed in a group of 19 healthy, non-smoking volunteers (9 men and 10 women). The following parameters were obtained for further analysis: blood pressure, the cardiac (from 0.5 to 5.0Hz) and slow (<0.5Hz) components of subarachnoid space width, heart rate, mean cerebral blood flow velocity in the internal carotid artery, pulsatility and resistivity index, internal carotid artery diameter, blood oxygen saturation and end-tidal carbon dioxide. The experiment consisted of three apnoeas, sequentially: 30s, 60s and maximal apnoea. The breath-hold was separated for 5minute rest. The control process is sophisticated, involving internal cross-couplings and cross-dependences. The aim of work was to find a mathematical dependence between data. Unexpectedly, the modelling revealed two different reactions, on the same experimental procedure. As a consequence, there are two subsets of cardiac subarachnoid space width responses to breath-hold in humans. A positive cardiac subarachnoid space width change to apnoea depends on changes in heart rate and cerebral blood flow velocity. A negative cardiac subarachnoid space width change to apnoea is driven by heart rate, mean arterial pressure and pulsatility index changes. The described above two different reactions to experimental breath-hold provides new insights into our understanding of the complex mechanisms governing the adaptation to apnoea in humans. We proposed a mathematical methodology that can be used in further clinical research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electro-osmotically driven liquid delivery method and apparatus

DOEpatents

Rakestraw, D.J.; Anex, D.S.; Yan, C.; Dadoo, R.; Zare, R.N.

1999-08-24

Method and apparatus are disclosed for controlling precisely the composition and delivery of liquid at sub-{micro}L/min flow rate. One embodiment of such a delivery system is an electro-osmotically driven gradient flow delivery system that generates dynamic gradient flows with sub-{micro}L/min flow rates by merging a plurality of electro-osmotic flows. These flows are delivered by a plurality of delivery arms attached to a mixing connector, where they mix and then flow into a receiving means, preferably a column. Each inlet of the plurality of delivery arms is placed in a corresponding solution reservoir. A plurality of independent programmable high-voltage power supplies is used to apply a voltage program to each of the plurality of solution reservoirs to regulate the electro-osmotic flow in each delivery arm. The electro-osmotic flow rates in the delivery arms are changed with time according to each voltage program to deliver the required gradient profile to the column. 4 figs.

Steeper discounting of delayed rewards in schizophrenia but not first-degree relatives.

PubMed

Yu, Linda Q; Lee, Sangil; Katchmar, Natalie; Satterthwaite, Theodore D; Kable, Joseph W; Wolf, Daniel H

2017-06-01

Excessive discounting of future rewards has been related to a variety of risky behaviors and adverse clinical conditions. Prior work examining delay discounting in schizophrenia suggests an elevated discount rate. However, it remains uncertain whether this reflects the disease process itself or an underlying genetic vulnerability, whether it is selective for delay discounting or reflects pervasive changes in decision-making, and whether it is driven by specific clinical dimensions such as cognitive impairment. Here we investigated delay discounting, as well as loss aversion and risk aversion, in three groups: schizophrenia (SZ), unaffected first-degree family members (FM), and controls without a family history of psychosis (NC). SZ had elevated discounting, without changes in loss aversion or risk aversion. Contrary to expectations, the FM group did not show an intermediate phenotype in discounting. Higher discount rates correlated with lower cognitive performance on verbal reasoning, but this did not explain elevated discount rates in SZ. Group differences were driven primarily by the non-smoking majority of the sample. This study provides further evidence for elevated discounting in schizophrenia, and demonstrates that steeper discounting is not necessarily associated with familial risk, cannot be wholly accounted for by cognitive deficits, and is not attributable to smoking-related impulsivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

2018-01-01

Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas, and status of the species for the larger Bi-State.

Analysis of dynamic behavior of multiple-stage planetary gear train used in wind driven generator.

PubMed

Wang, Jungang; Wang, Yong; Huo, Zhipu

2014-01-01

A dynamic model of multiple-stage planetary gear train composed of a two-stage planetary gear train and a one-stage parallel axis gear is proposed to be used in wind driven generator to analyze the influence of revolution speed and mesh error on dynamic load sharing characteristic based on the lumped parameter theory. Dynamic equation of the model is solved using numerical method to analyze the uniform load distribution of the system. It is shown that the load sharing property of the system is significantly affected by mesh error and rotational speed; load sharing coefficient and change rate of internal and external meshing of the system are of obvious difference from each other. The study provides useful theoretical guideline for the design of the multiple-stage planetary gear train of wind driven generator.

Analysis of Dynamic Behavior of Multiple-Stage Planetary Gear Train Used in Wind Driven Generator

PubMed Central

Wang, Jungang; Wang, Yong; Huo, Zhipu

2014-01-01

A dynamic model of multiple-stage planetary gear train composed of a two-stage planetary gear train and a one-stage parallel axis gear is proposed to be used in wind driven generator to analyze the influence of revolution speed and mesh error on dynamic load sharing characteristic based on the lumped parameter theory. Dynamic equation of the model is solved using numerical method to analyze the uniform load distribution of the system. It is shown that the load sharing property of the system is significantly affected by mesh error and rotational speed; load sharing coefficient and change rate of internal and external meshing of the system are of obvious difference from each other. The study provides useful theoretical guideline for the design of the multiple-stage planetary gear train of wind driven generator. PMID:24511295

Climate-vegetation-fire interactions and their impact on long-term carbon dynamics in a boreal peatland landscape in northern Manitoba, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camill, Philip; Barry, Ann; Williams, Evie; Andreassi, Christian; Limmer, Jacob; Solick, Donald

2009-12-01

Climate warming may increase the size and frequency of fires in the boreal biome, possibly causing greater carbon release that amplifies warming. However, in peatlands, vegetation change may also control long-term fire and carbon accumulation, confounding simple relationships between climate, fire, and carbon accumulation. Using 17 peat cores dating to 8000 cal years B.P. from northern Manitoba, Canada, we addressed the following questions: (1) Do past climate changes correlate with shifts in peatland vegetation? (2) What is the relationship between peatland vegetation and fire severity? (3) What is the mean return interval for boreal peat fires, and how does it change across fires of different severities? (4) How does fire severity affect carbon accumulation rates? (5) Do fire and long-term carbon accumulation change directly in response to climate or indirectly though climate-driven changes in vegetation? We measured carbon accumulation rates, fire severity, and return intervals using macroscopic charcoal and changes in vegetation using macrofossils. Climate and vegetation changes covaried, with shifts from wetter fen to drier, forested bog communities during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). Fires became more severe following the shift to forested bogs, with fire severity peaking after 4000 cal years B.P. rather than during the HTM. Rising fire severity, in turn, was correlated with a significant decrease in carbon accumulation from ˜6000 to 2000 cal years B.P. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affected vegetation composition and permafrost, further impacting fire and carbon accumulation. Our results indicate that long-term changes in fire and carbon dynamics are mediated by climate-driven changes in vegetation.

THERMALLY DRIVEN ATMOSPHERIC ESCAPE: TRANSITION FROM HYDRODYNAMIC TO JEANS ESCAPE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volkov, Alexey N.; Johnson, Robert E.; Tucker, Orenthal J.

2011-03-10

Thermally driven escape from planetary atmospheres changes in nature from an organized outflow (hydrodynamic escape) to escape on a molecule-by-molecule basis (Jeans escape) with increasing Jeans parameter, {lambda}, the ratio of the gravitational to thermal energy of the atmospheric molecules. This change is described here for the first time using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. When heating is predominantly below the lower boundary of the simulation region, R{sub 0}, and well below the exobase of a single-component atmosphere, the nature of the escape process changes over a surprisingly narrow range of Jeans parameters, {lambda}{sub 0}, evaluated at R{sub 0}.more » For an atomic gas, the transition occurs over {lambda}{sub 0} {approx} 2-3, where the lower bound, {lambda}{sub 0} {approx} 2.1, corresponds to the upper limit for isentropic, supersonic outflow. For {lambda}{sub 0} > 3 escape occurs on a molecule-by-molecule basis and we show that, contrary to earlier suggestions, for {lambda}{sub 0} > {approx}6 the escape rate does not deviate significantly from the familiar Jeans rate. In a gas composed of diatomic molecules, the transition shifts to {lambda}{sub 0} {approx} 2.4-3.6 and at {lambda}{sub 0} > {approx}4 the escape rate increases a few tens of percent over that for the monatomic gas. Scaling by the Jeans parameter and the Knudsen number, these results can be applied to thermally induced escape of the major species from solar and extrasolar planets.« less

Comparison of air-driven vs electric torque control motors on canal centering ability by ProTaper NiTi rotary instruments.

PubMed

Zarei, Mina; Javidi, Maryam; Erfanian, Mahdi; Lomee, Mahdi; Afkhami, Farzaneh

2013-01-01

Cleaning and shaping is one of the most important phases in root canal therapy. Various rotary NiTi systems minimize accidents and facilitate the shaping process. Todays NiTi files are used with air-driven and electric handpieces. This study compared the canal centering after instrumentation using the ProTaper system using Endo IT, electric torque-control motor, and NSK air-driven handpiece. This ex vivo randomized controlled trial study involved 26 mesial mandibular root canals with 10 to 35° curvature. The roots were randomly divided into 2 groups of 13 canals each. The roots were mounted in an endodontic cube with acrylic resin, sectioned horizontally at 2, 6 and 10 mm from the apex and then reassembled. The canals were instrumented according to the manufacturer's instructions using ProTaper rotary files and electric torque-control motors (group 1) or air-driven handpieces (group 2). Photographs of the cross-sections included shots before and after instrumentation, and image analysis was performed using Photoshop software. The centering ability and canal transportation was also evaluated. Repeated measurement and independent t-test provided statistical analysis of canal transportation. The comparison of the rate of transportation toward internal or external walls between the two groups was not statistically significant (p = 0.62). Comparison of the rate of transportation of sections within one group was not significant (p = 0.28). Use of rotary NiTi file with either electric torquecontrol motor or air-driven handpiece had no effect on canal centering. NiTi rotary instruments can be used with air-driven motors without any considerable changes in root canal anatomy, however it needs the clinician to be expert.

An RCT Investigating Patient-Driven Versus Physician-Driven Titration of BIAsp 30 in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Uncontrolled Using NPH Insulin.

PubMed

Chraibi, Abdelmjid; Al-Herz, Shoorook; Nguyen, Bich Dao; Soeatmadji, Djoko W; Shinde, Anil; Lakshmivenkataraman, Balasubramanian; Assaad-Khalil, Samir H

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to confirm the efficacy of patient-driven titration of BIAsp 30 in terms of glycemic control, by comparing it to physician-driven titration of BIAsp 30, in patients with type 2 diabetes in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. A 20-week, open-label, randomized, two-armed, parallel-group, multicenter study in Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam. Patients (n = 155) with type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled using neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin were randomized to either patient-driven or physician-driven BIAsp 30 titration. The noninferiority of patient-driven compared to physician-driven titration with respect to the reduction in HbA1c was confirmed. The estimated mean change in HbA1c from baseline to week 20 was -1.27% in the patient-driven arm and -1.04% in the physician-driven arm, with an estimated treatment difference of -0.23% (95% confidence interval: -0.54; 0.08). After 20 weeks of treatment, the proportions of patients achieving the target of HbA1c <7.5% were similar between titration arms; the proportions of patients achieving the target of ≤6.5% were also similar. Both titration algorithms were well tolerated, and hypoglycemic episode rates were similar in both arms. Patient-driven titration of BIAsp 30 can be as effective and safe as physician-driven titration in non-Western populations. Overall, the switch from NPH insulin to BIAsp 30 was well tolerated in both titration arms and led to improved glycemic control. A limitation of the study was the relatively small number of patients recruited in each country. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01589653. Novo Nordisk A/S, Denmark.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, Todd Andrew; Brandt, Craig C.; Brooks, Scott C.

Mercury (Hg) methylation and methylmercury (MMHg) demethylation activity of periphyton biofilms from East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA (EFPC) were measured during 2014-2015 using stable Hg isotopic rate assays. 201Hg II and MM 202Hg were added to intact periphyton samples and the formation of MM 201Hg and loss of MM 202Hg were monitored over time and used to calculate first-order rate constants for methylation and demethylation, respectively. The influence of location, temperature/season, light exposure and biofilm structure on methylation and demethylation were examined. Between-site differences in net methylation for samples collected from an upstream versus downstream location were driven bymore » differences in the demethylation rate constant (k d). In contrast, the within-site seasonal difference in net methylation was driven by changes in the methylation rate constant (k m). Samples incubated in the dark had lower net methylation due to km values that were 60% less than those incubated in the light. Disrupting the biofilm structure decreased km by 50% and resulted in net demethylating conditions. Overall, the measured rates resulted in a net excess of MMHg generated which could account for 27-85% of the MMHg flux in EFPC and suggests intact, actively photosynthesizing periphyton biofilms harbor zones of MMHg production.« less

Acceleration of a ground-state reaction by selective femtosecond-infrared-laser-pulse excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensitzki, Till; Yang, Yang; Kozich, Valeri; Ahmed, Ashour A.; Kössl, Florian; Kühn, Oliver; Heyne, Karsten

2018-02-01

Infrared (IR) excitation of vibrations that participate in the reaction coordinate of an otherwise thermally driven chemical reaction are believed to lead to its acceleration. Attempts at the practical realization of this concept have been hampered so far by competing processes leading to sample heating. Here we demonstrate, using femtosecond IR-pump IR-probe experiments, the acceleration of urethane and polyurethane formation due to vibrational excitation of the reactants for 1:1 mixtures of phenylisocyanate and cyclohexanol, and toluene-2,4-diisocyanate and 2,2,2-trichloroethane-1,1-diol, respectively. We measured reaction rate changes upon selective vibrational excitation with negligible heating of the sample and observed an increase of the reaction rate up to 24%. The observation is rationalized using reactant and transition-state structures obtained from quantum chemical calculations. We subsequently used IR-driven reaction acceleration to write a polyurethane square on sample windows using a femtosecond IR pulse.

Photoelectrolysis of water at high current density - Use of laser light excitation of semiconductor-based photoelectrochemical cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wrighton, M. S.; Bocarsley, A. B.; Bolts, J. M.

1978-01-01

In the present paper, some results are given for UV laser light irradiation of the photoanode (SnO2, SrTiO3, or TiO2) in a cell for the light-driven electrolysis of H2O, at radiation intensities of up to 380 W/sq cm. The properties of the anode material are found to be independent of light intensity. Conversion of UV light to stored chemical energy in the form of 2H2/O2 from H2O was driven at a rate of up to 30 W/sq cm. High O2 evolution rates at the irradiated anodes without changes in the current-voltage curves are attributed to the excess oxidizing power associated with photogenerated holes. A test for this sort of hypothesis for H2 evolution at p-type materials is proposed.

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

2011-01-01

We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

Adolescents alcohol-use and economic conditions: a multilevel analysis of data from a period with big economic changes.

PubMed

Svensson, Mikael; Hagquist, Curt

2010-12-01

This paper examines how the unemployment rate is related to adolescent alcohol use and experience of binge drinking during a time period characterized by big societal changes. The paper uses repeated cross-sectional adolescent survey data from a Swedish region, collected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1998, 2002 and 2005, and merges this with data on local unemployment rates for the same time periods. Individual level frequency of alcohol use as well as experience of binge drinking is connected to local level unemployment rate to estimate the relationship using multilevel modeling. The model includes municipality effects controlling for time-invariant differences between municipalities as well as year fixed effects controlling for municipality-invariant changes over time in alcohol use. The results show that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with adolescents' alcohol use and the experience of binge drinking. When the unemployment rate increases, more adolescents do not drink at all. Regular drinking (twice per month or more) is, on the other hand, unrelated to the unemployment rate. Examining gender-differences in the relationship, it is shown that the results are driven by behavior in girls, whereas drinking among boys does not show any significant relationship with changes in the unemployment rate.

Effect of Experimentally Manipulated Fire Regimes on the Response of Forests to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Refsland, T. K.; Knapp, B.; Fraterrigo, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase drought stress in many forests and alter fire regimes. Fire can reduce tree density and thus competition for limited water, but the effects of changing fire regimes on forest productivity during drought remain poorly understood. We measured the annual ring-widths of adult oak (Quercus spp.) trees in Mark Twain National Forest, Missouri USA that experienced unburned, annual or periodic (every 4 years) surface fire treatments from 1951 - 2015. Severe drought events were identified using the BILJOU water balance model. We determined the effect of fire treatment on stand-level annual growth rates as well as stand-level resistance and resilience to drought, defined as the drought-induced reduction in growth and post-drought recovery in growth, respectively. During favorable wet years, annual and periodic fire treatments reduced annual growth rates by approximately 10-15% relative to unburned controls (P < 0.001). Stand-level growth rates declined 22-40% during drought events (P < 0.001), but fire-driven changes to stand basal area had no effect on the resistance or resilience of trees to drought. The decline in annual growth rates of burned stands during favorable wet years was likely caused by increased nitrogen (N) limitation in burned plots. After 60 years of treatment, burned plots experienced 30% declines in total soil N relative to unburned plots. Our finding that drought resistance and resilience were similar across all treatments suggest that fire-driven reductions in stand density may have negligible effects on soil moisture availability during drought. Our results highlight that climate-fire interactions can have important long-term effects on forest productivity.

Irrelevance of the Power Stroke for the Directionality, Stopping Force, and Optimal Efficiency of Chemically Driven Molecular Machines

PubMed Central

Astumian, R. Dean

2015-01-01

A simple model for a chemically driven molecular walker shows that the elastic energy stored by the molecule and released during the conformational change known as the power-stroke (i.e., the free-energy difference between the pre- and post-power-stroke states) is irrelevant for determining the directionality, stopping force, and efficiency of the motor. Further, the apportionment of the dependence on the externally applied force between the forward and reverse rate constants of the power-stroke (or indeed among all rate constants) is irrelevant for determining the directionality, stopping force, and efficiency of the motor. Arguments based on the principle of microscopic reversibility demonstrate that this result is general for all chemically driven molecular machines, and even more broadly that the relative energies of the states of the motor have no role in determining the directionality, stopping force, or optimal efficiency of the machine. Instead, the directionality, stopping force, and optimal efficiency are determined solely by the relative heights of the energy barriers between the states. Molecular recognition—the ability of a molecular machine to discriminate between substrate and product depending on the state of the machine—is far more important for determining the intrinsic directionality and thermodynamics of chemo-mechanical coupling than are the details of the internal mechanical conformational motions of the machine. In contrast to the conclusions for chemical driving, a power-stroke is very important for the directionality and efficiency of light-driven molecular machines and for molecular machines driven by external modulation of thermodynamic parameters. PMID:25606678

Regional influences on reconstructed global mean sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natarov, Svetlana I.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Becker, Janet M.; Thompson, Phillip R.

2017-04-01

Reconstructions of global mean sea level (GMSL) based on tide gauge measurements tend to exhibit common multidecadal rate fluctuations over the twentieth century. GMSL rate changes may result from physical drivers, such as changes in radiative forcing or land water storage. Alternatively, these fluctuations may represent artifacts due to sampling limitations inherent in the historical tide gauge network. In particular, a high percentage of tide gauges used in reconstructions, especially prior to the 1950s, are from Europe and North America in the North Atlantic region. Here a GMSL reconstruction based on the reduced space optimal interpolation algorithm is deconstructed, with the contributions of individual tide gauge stations quantified and assessed regionally. It is demonstrated that the North Atlantic region has a disproportionate influence on reconstructed GMSL rate fluctuations prior to the 1950s, notably accounting for a rate minimum in the 1920s and contributing to a rate maximum in the 1950s. North Atlantic coastal sea level fluctuations related to wind-driven ocean volume redistribution likely contribute to these estimated GMSL rate inflections. The findings support previous claims that multidecadal rate changes in GMSL reconstructions are likely related to the geographic distribution of tide gauge stations within a sparse global network.

The flow structure of jets from transient sources and implications for modeling short-duration explosive volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chojnicki, K. N.; Clarke, A. B.; Adrian, R. J.; Phillips, J. C.

2014-12-01

We used laboratory experiments to examine the rise process in neutrally buoyant jets that resulted from an unsteady supply of momentum, a condition that defines plumes from discrete Vulcanian and Strombolian-style eruptions. We simultaneously measured the analog-jet discharge rate (the supply rate of momentum) and the analog-jet internal velocity distribution (a consequence of momentum transport and dilution). Then, we examined the changes in the analog-jet velocity distribution over time to assess the impact of the supply-rate variations on the momentum-driven rise dynamics. We found that the analog-jet velocity distribution changes significantly and quickly as the supply rate varied, such that the whole-field distribution at any instant differed considerably from the time average. We also found that entrainment varied in space and over time with instantaneous entrainment coefficient values ranging from 0 to 0.93 in an individual unsteady jet. Consequently, we conclude that supply-rate variations exert first-order control over jet dynamics, and therefore cannot be neglected in models without compromising their capability to predict large-scale eruption behavior. These findings emphasize the fundamental differences between unsteady and steady jet dynamics, and show clearly that: (i) variations in source momentum flux directly control the dynamics of the resulting flow; (ii) impulsive flows driven by sources of varying flux cannot reasonably be approximated by quasi-steady flow models. New modeling approaches capable of describing the time-dependent properties of transient volcanic eruption plumes are needed before their trajectory, dilution, and stability can be reliably computed for hazards management.

Carbon dioxide exchange rates from short- and long-hydroperiod Everglades freshwater marsh

Treesearch

K. L. Jimenez; G. Starr; C. L. Staudhammer; J. L. Schedlbauer; H. W. Loescher; Sparkle L Malone; S. F. Oberbauer

2012-01-01

Everglades freshwater marshes were once carbon sinks, but human-driven hydrologic changes have led to uncertainty about the current state of their carbon dynamics. To investigate the effect of hydrology on CO2 exchange, we used eddy covariance measurements for 2 years (2008-2009) in marl (short-hydroperiod) and peat (long-hydroperiod) wetlands in Everglades National...

The rate of change of vergence-accommodation conflict affects visual discomfort.

PubMed

Kim, Joohwan; Kane, David; Banks, Martin S

2014-12-01

Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25 Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort.

Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both current and future changes in forest carbon balance as a consequence of climate change and forest management in the western US.

Evidence for the bias-driven migration of oxygen vacancies in amorphous non-stoichiometric gallium oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, D. Y.; Qian, Y. P.; Su, Y. L.; Shi, H. Z.; Li, P. G.; Wu, J. T.; Wang, S. L.; Cui, C.; Tang, W. H.

2017-06-01

The conductivity of gallium oxide thin films is strongly dependent on the growth temperature when they deposited by pulsed laser deposition under vacuum environment, exhibiting an insulative-to-metallic transition with the decrease of the temperature. The high conductive gallium oxide films deposited at low temperature are amorphous, non-stoichiometric, and rich in oxygen vacancy. Large changes in electrical resistance are observed in these non-stoichiometric thin films. The wide variety of hysteretic shapes in the I-V curves depend on the voltage-sweep rate, evidencing that the time-dependent redistribution of oxygen vacancy driven by bias is the controlling parameter for the resistance of gallium oxide.

Understanding Rates of Change: How have climate transitions during the Holocene driven the pace of vegetation change in California ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.; Barron, J. A.

2016-12-01

A fundamental aspect of ecosystem response to global climate change is the rate at which systems can change, determined in large part by the timing and magnitude of changes in climate parameters. Reorganization in atmosphere/ocean dynamics of the North Pacific on millennial to centennial time scales has resulted in climate change in western North America. The seasonality of the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific High, Pacific SSTs, and related high frequency variability (ENSO, PDO) all strongly influence temperature and precipitation regimes of western North America. This study assesses the rate of vegetation response to climate change in the western United States. Here we present preliminary reconstructions of rates of vegetation change in California from 11k cal. BP to the present. Research questions include: Do increased rates of ecosystem transformation correspond with times of marked reorganization in climate dynamics? What is the geographic distribution of rates of change, and how does that distribution vary through time? Rate of change is defined as the ratio of the difference in abundances of a fixed array of pollen taxa between adjacent samples within a pollen record over time. The measure of difference was determined using the VEGAN package in R and applying the Bray-Curtis measure. Analyses are based on publicly available data from published fossil pollen studies. Our initial results suggest broad coherence of increased change rates at around 3.5k and 6k cal. BP. Future work will focus on evaluating potential refinements of the filter applied to the pollen data and standardization of the sample intervals, as well as on expansion of the data sets analyzed to include the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest regions of North America in order to provide a more comprehensive analysis of past change rates in the western US.

Soil microbial community composition is correlated to soil carbon processing along a boreal wetland formation gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapman, Eric; Cadillo-Quiroz, Hinsby; Childers, Daniel L.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Waldrop, Mark P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles. Microbial communities play an integral role in soil biogeochemical cycles; knowledge about microbial composition helps provide a mechanistic understanding of these ecosystem-level phenomena. Next generation sequencing approaches were used to investigate changes in microbial functional groups during ecosystem development, in response to climate change, in northern boreal wetlands. A gradient of wetlands that developed following permafrost degradation was used to characterize changes in the soil microbial communities that mediate C cycling: a bog representing an “undisturbed” system with intact permafrost, and a younger bog and an older bog that formed following the disturbance of permafrost thaw. Reference 16S rRNA databases and several diversity indices were used to assess structural differences among these communities, to assess relationships between soil microbial community composition and various environmental variables including redox potential and pH. Rates of potential CO2 and CH4 gas production were quantified to correlate sequence data with gas flux. The abundance of organic C degraders was highest in the youngest bog, suggesting higher rates of microbial processes, including potential CH4 production. In addition, alpha diversity was also highest in the youngest bog, which seemed to be related to a more neutral pH and a lower redox potential. These results could potentially be driven by increased niche differentiation in anaerobic soils. These results suggest that ecosystem structure, which was largely driven by changes in edaphic and plant community characteristics between the “undisturbed” permafrost bog and the two bogs formed following permafrost thaw, strongly influenced microbial function.

Damping Rates of Energetic Particle Modes and Stability With Changing Equilibrium Conditions in the MST Reversed-Field Pinch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sears, S. H.; Almagri, A. F.; Anderson, J. K.; Bonofiglo, P. J.; Capecchi, W.; Kim, J.

2016-10-01

The damping of Alfvenic waves is an important process, with implications varying from anomalous ion heating in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas to the stability of fusion alpha-driven modes in a burning plasma. With a 1 MW NBI on the MST, a controllable set of energetic particle modes (EPMs) and Alfvenic eigenmodes can be excited. We investigate the damping of these modes as a function of both magnetic and flow shear. Typical EPM damping rates are -104 s-1 in standard RFP discharges. Magnetic shear in the region of large energetic ion density is -2 cm-1 and can be increased up to -2.5 cm-1 by varying the boundary field. Continuum mode damping rates can be reduced up to 50%. New experiments use a bias probe to control the rotation profile. Accelerating the edge plasma relative to the rapidly rotating NBI-driven core decreases the flow shear, while decelerating the edge plasma increases the flow shear in the region of strong energetic ion population. Mode damping rates measured as a function of the local flow shear are compared to ideal MHD predictions. Work supported by US DOE.

Effective Rating Scale Development for Speaking Tests: Performance Decision Trees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fulcher, Glenn; Davidson, Fred; Kemp, Jenny

2011-01-01

Rating scale design and development for testing speaking is generally conducted using one of two approaches: the measurement-driven approach or the performance data-driven approach. The measurement-driven approach prioritizes the ordering of descriptors onto a single scale. Meaning is derived from the scaling methodology and the agreement of…

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

PubMed

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift

PubMed Central

Ling, S. D.; Johnson, C. R.; Frusher, S. D.; Ridgway, K. R.

2009-01-01

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans. PMID:20018706

Vegetation and climate variability in East Asia driven by low-latitude oceanic forcing during the middle to late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Jaesoo; Fujiki, Toshiyuki

2011-09-01

At centennial to millennial timescales, little is known of C 3 and C 4 plant productivity's responses to past regional climate changes and the dominant forcing factors during the Holocene, although large-scale changes in glacial-interglacial periods have been attributed to changes in aridity, temperature, and CO 2 concentration. We investigated the δ 13C of TOC, C/N ratios, and pollen in samples from a wetland on Jeju Island, Korea. The bulk isotopic signal ranging from -17‰ to -29‰ was partitioned into C 3 and C 4 plant signals by using a binary mixing model and calculating separate organic carbon-accumulation rates for C 3 and C 4 plants (OCAR 3 and OCAR 4) during the last 6500 years. Pollen data indicated that the temperate deciduous broadleaved trees replaced grassland dominated by Artemisia, dry-tolerant grass, and further expanded in the maar. The long-term decreasing trend of Artemisia-dominated grassland was similar to those of δ 13C values and OCAR 4. The multi-centennial to millennial variability superimposed on the gradual increasing trend of OCAR 3 was inversely correlated with those of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, suggesting that C 3 plants have stronger sensitivity to regional climate change driven by oceanic forcing. Our data suggest that vegetation changes in a coastal area in East Asia were affected by monsoonal changes coupled with SST in WTP and ENSO activity. The vegetation change on Jeju Island varied quite differently from change in the westerly pathway, suggesting only a weak influence from high-latitude-driven atmospheric circulation changes. We conclude that centennial- to millennial-scale climate changes in coastal regions of East Asia during the mid- to late-Holocene may have been mainly controlled by low-latitudinal oceanic forcing, including forcing by SST and ENSO activity.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Spatial variations of sea level along the coast of Thailand: Impacts of extreme land subsidence, earthquakes and the seasonal monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saramul, Suriyan; Ezer, Tal

2014-11-01

The study addresses two important issues associated with sea level along the coasts of Thailand: first, the fast sea level rise and its spatial variation, and second, the monsoonal-driven seasonal variations in sea level. Tide gauge data that are more extensive than in past studies were obtained from several different local and global sources, and relative sea level rise (RSLR) rates were obtained from two different methods, linear regressions and non-linear Empirical Mode Decomposition/Hilbert-Huang Transform (EMD/HHT) analysis. The results show extremely large spatial variations in RSLR, with rates varying from ~ 1 mm y-1 to ~ 20 mm y-1; the maximum RSLR is found in the upper Gulf of Thailand (GOT) near Bangkok, where local land subsidence due to groundwater extraction dominates the trend. Furthermore, there are indications that RSLR rates increased significantly in all locations after the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and the Indian Ocean tsunami that followed, so that recent RSLR rates seem to have less spatial differences than in the past, but with high rates of ~ 20-30 mm y-1 almost everywhere. The seasonal sea level cycle was found to be very different between stations in the GOT, which have minimum sea level in June-July, and stations in the Andaman Sea, which have minimum sea level in February. The seasonal sea-level variations in the GOT are driven mostly by large-scale wind-driven set-up/set-down processes associated with the seasonal monsoon and have amplitudes about ten times larger than either typical steric changes at those latitudes or astronomical annual tides.

Periphyton Biofilms Influence Net Methylmercury Production in an Industrially Contaminated System.

PubMed

Olsen, Todd A; Brandt, Craig C; Brooks, Scott C

2016-10-18

Mercury (Hg) methylation and methylmercury (MMHg) demethylation activity of periphyton biofilms from the industrially contaminated East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee (EFPC) were measured during 2014-2016 using stable Hg isotopic rate assays. 201 Hg II and MM 202 Hg were added to intact periphyton samples in ambient streamwater and the formation of MM 201 Hg and loss of MM 202 Hg were monitored over time and used to calculate first-order rate potentials for methylation and demethylation. The influences of location, temperature/season, light exposure and biofilm structure on methylation and demethylation potentials were examined. Between-site differences in net methylation for samples collected from an upstream versus downstream location were driven by differences in the demethylation rate potential (k d ). In contrast, the within-site temperature-dependent difference in net methylation was driven by changes in the methylation rate potential (k m ). Samples incubated in the dark had lower net methylation due to lower k m values than those incubated in the light. Disrupting the biofilm structure decreased k m and resulted in lower net methylation. Overall, the measured rates resulted in a net excess of MMHg generated which could account for 3.71-7.88 mg d -1 MMHg flux in EFPC and suggests intact, actively photosynthesizing periphyton biofilms harbor zones of MMHg production.

Periphyton biofilms influence net methylmercury production in an industrially contaminated system

DOE PAGES

Olsen, Todd Andrew; Brandt, Craig C.; Brooks, Scott C.

2016-09-12

Mercury (Hg) methylation and methylmercury (MMHg) demethylation activity of periphyton biofilms from East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee, USA (EFPC) were measured during 2014-2015 using stable Hg isotopic rate assays. 201Hg II and MM 202Hg were added to intact periphyton samples and the formation of MM 201Hg and loss of MM 202Hg were monitored over time and used to calculate first-order rate constants for methylation and demethylation, respectively. The influence of location, temperature/season, light exposure and biofilm structure on methylation and demethylation were examined. Between-site differences in net methylation for samples collected from an upstream versus downstream location were driven bymore » differences in the demethylation rate constant (k d). In contrast, the within-site seasonal difference in net methylation was driven by changes in the methylation rate constant (k m). Samples incubated in the dark had lower net methylation due to km values that were 60% less than those incubated in the light. Disrupting the biofilm structure decreased km by 50% and resulted in net demethylating conditions. Overall, the measured rates resulted in a net excess of MMHg generated which could account for 27-85% of the MMHg flux in EFPC and suggests intact, actively photosynthesizing periphyton biofilms harbor zones of MMHg production.« less

Climate change in the age of humans

Treesearch

J. Curt Stager

2014-01-01

The Anthropocene epoch presents a mix of old and new challenges for the world’s forests. Climatic instability has typified most of the Cenozoic Era but today’s situation is unique due to the presence of billions of humans on the planet. The potential rate and magnitude of future warming driven by continued fossil fuel combustion could be unprecedented during the last...

Forest dynamics in the temperate rainforests of Alaska: from individual tree to regional scales

Treesearch

Tara M. Barrett

2015-01-01

Analysis of remeasurement data from 1079 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots revealed multi-scale change occurring in the temperate rainforests of southeast Alaska. In the western half of the region, including Prince William Sound, aboveground live tree biomass and carbon are increasing at a rate of 8 ( ± 2 ) percent per decade, driven by an increase in Sitka...

A model investigation of turbulence-driven pressure-pumping effects on the rate of diffusion of CO2, N2O, and CH4 through layered snowpacks

Treesearch

W. J. Massman; R. A. Sommerfeld; A. R. Mosier; K. F. Zeller; T.J . Hehn; S. G. Rochelle

1997-01-01

Pressure pumping at the Earth's surface is caused by short-period atmospheric turbulence, longer-period barometric changes, and quasi-static pressure fields induced by wind blowing across irregular topography. These naturally occurring atmospheric pressure variations induce periodic fluctuations in airflow through snowpacks, soils, and any other porous media at...

Assessment of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Greenland using GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S. A.; Bevis, M. G.; Sasgen, I.; van Dam, T. M.; Wahr, J. M.; Wouters, B.; Bamber, J. L.; Willis, M. J.; Knudsen, P.; Helm, V.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; Muresan, I. S.

2015-12-01

The Greenland GPS network (GNET) was constructed to provide a new means to assess viscoelastic and elastic adjustments driven by past and present-day changes in ice mass. Here we assess existing glacial isostatic adjustments (GIA) predictions by analysing 1995-2015 data from 61 continuous GPS receivers located along the margin of the Greenland ice sheet. Since GPS receivers measure both the GIA and elastic signals, we isolate GIA, by removing the elastic adjustments of the lithosphere due to present-day mass changes using high-resolution fields of ice surface elevation change derived from satellite and airborne altimetry measurements (ERS1/2, ICESat, ATM, ENVISAT, and CryoSat-2). For most GPS stations, our observed GIA rates contradict GIA predictions; particularly, we find huge uplift rates in southeast Greenland of up to 14 mm/yr while models predict rates of 0-2 mm/yr. Our results suggest possible improvements of GIA predictions, and hence of the poorly constrained ice load history and Earth structure models for Greenland.

Subtidal circulation patterns in a shallow, highly stratified estuary: Mobile Bay, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noble, M.A.; Schroeder, W.W.; Wiseman, W.J.; Ryan, H.F.; Gelfenbaum, G.

1996-01-01

Mobile Bay is a wide (25-50 km), shallow (3 m), highly stratified estuary on the Gulf coast of the United States. In May 1991 a series of instruments that measure near-surface and near-bed current, temperature, salinity, and middepth pressure were deployed for a year-long study of the bay. A full set of measurements were obtained at one site in the lower bay; all but current measurements were obtained at a midbay site. These observations show that the subtidal currents in the lower bay are highly sheared, despite the shallow depth of the estuary. The sheared flow patterns are partly caused by differential forcing from wind stress and river discharge. Two wind-driven flow patterns actually exist in lower Mobile Bay. A barotropic response develops when the difference between near-surface and near-bottom salinity is less than 5 parts per thousand. For stronger salinity gradients the wind-driven currents are larger and the response resembles a baroclinic flow pattern. Currents driven by river flows are sheared and also have a nonlinear response pattern. Only near-surface currents are driven seaward by discharges below 3000 m3/s. At higher discharge rates, surface current variability uncouples from the river flow and the increased discharge rates drive near-bed current seaward. This change in the river-forced flow pattern may be associated with a hydraulic jump in the mouth of the estuary. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Stillbirth and neonatal death rates across time: the influence of pregnancy terminations and birth defects in a Western Australian population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Farrant, Brad M; Stanley, Fiona J; Hardelid, Pia; Shepherd, Carrington C J

2016-05-17

The stillbirth rate in most high income countries reduced in the early part of the 20(th) century but has apparently been static over the past 2½ decades. However, there has not been any account taken of pregnancy terminations and birth defects on these trends. The current study sought to quantify these relationships using linked Western Australian administrative data for the years 1986-2010. We analysed a retrospective, population-based cohort of Western Australia births from 1986 to 2010, with de-identified linked data from core population health datasets. The study revealed a significant decrease in the neonatal death rate from 1986 to 2010 (6.1 to 2.1 neonatal deaths per 1000 births; p < .01), while the overall stillbirth rate remained static. The stillbirth trend was driven by deaths in the extremely preterm period (20-27 weeks; which account for about half of all recorded stillbirths and neonatal deaths), masking significant decreases in the rate of stillbirth at very preterm (28-31 weeks), moderate to late preterm (32-36 weeks), and term (37+ weeks). For singletons, birth defects made up an increasing proportion of stillbirths and decreasing proportion of neonatal deaths over the study period-a shift that appears to have been largely driven by the increase in late pregnancy terminations (20 weeks or more gestation). After accounting for pregnancy terminations, we observed a significant downward trend in stillbirth and neonatal death rates at every gestational age. Changes in clinical practice related to pregnancy terminations have played a substantial role in shaping stillbirth and neonatal death rates in Western Australia over the 2½ decades to 2010. The study underscores the need to disaggregate perinatal mortality data in order to support a fuller consideration of the influence of pregnancy terminations and birth defects when assessing change over time in the rates of stillbirth and neonatal death.

Combining Load and Motor Encoders to Compensate Nonlinear Disturbances for High Precision Tracking Control of Gear-Driven Gimbal

PubMed Central

Tang, Tao; Chen, Sisi; Huang, Xuanlin; Yang, Tao; Qi, Bo

2018-01-01

High-performance position control can be improved by the compensation of disturbances for a gear-driven control system. This paper presents a mode-free disturbance observer (DOB) based on sensor-fusion to reduce some errors related disturbances for a gear-driven gimbal. This DOB uses the rate deviation to detect disturbances for implementation of a high-gain compensator. In comparison with the angular position signal the rate deviation between load and motor can exhibits the disturbances exiting in the gear-driven gimbal quickly. Due to high bandwidth of the motor rate closed loop, the inverse model of the plant is not necessary to implement DOB. Besides, this DOB requires neither complex modeling of plant nor the use of additive sensors. Without rate sensors providing angular rate, the rate deviation is easily detected by encoders mounted on the side of motor and load, respectively. Extensive experiments are provided to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed algorithm. PMID:29498643

Combining Load and Motor Encoders to Compensate Nonlinear Disturbances for High Precision Tracking Control of Gear-Driven Gimbal.

PubMed

Tang, Tao; Chen, Sisi; Huang, Xuanlin; Yang, Tao; Qi, Bo

2018-03-02

High-performance position control can be improved by the compensation of disturbances for a gear-driven control system. This paper presents a mode-free disturbance observer (DOB) based on sensor-fusion to reduce some errors related disturbances for a gear-driven gimbal. This DOB uses the rate deviation to detect disturbances for implementation of a high-gain compensator. In comparison with the angular position signal the rate deviation between load and motor can exhibits the disturbances exiting in the gear-driven gimbal quickly. Due to high bandwidth of the motor rate closed loop, the inverse model of the plant is not necessary to implement DOB. Besides, this DOB requires neither complex modeling of plant nor the use of additive sensors. Without rate sensors providing angular rate, the rate deviation is easily detected by encoders mounted on the side of motor and load, respectively. Extensive experiments are provided to demonstrate the benefits of the proposed algorithm.

Millennial slip-rates along the eastern Kunlun fault and rapid evolution of channel morphology in the yellow river headwaters, northeastern Tibet, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harkins, Nathan W.

A mechanical description of the interplay between ongoing crustal deformation and topographic evolution within the Tibetan Plateau remains outstanding, and thus our ability to describe the mechanisms responsible for the creation of this and other continental plateaus is limited. In this work, we employ a multidisciplinary approach to investigate the Quaternary record of active tectonism and coeval topographic evolution in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Fluvial channel topographic data paired with geochronologically calibrated measures of erosion rate reveal a headward migrating wave of dramatically accelerated incision rates in the headwaters of the Yellow River, which drains a large portion of northeastern Tibet. This transient increase in incision is likely driven by downstream base-level changes along the plateau margin and is superimposed onto a broad region of higher erosion rates confined to the plateau itself, within the Anyemaqen Shan (mountains). The Kunlun fault, one of the major active strike-slip faults of Tibet, trends through the Anyemaqen Shan. Using a careful approach towards quantifying millennial slip-rates along this fault zone based on the age of offset landforms, we constrain the Pleistocene kinematics of the eastern portion of the Kunlun fault and link this deformation to tectonically-driven erosion in the Anyemaqen Shan. Consideration of the age and morphology of fluvial terraces offset by the fault both highlights uncertainties associated with slip-rate determinations and allow more confident quantification of the allowable range of slip-rates at sites that take advantage of these features. Several new slip-rate determinations from this study at select locations corroborate a small number of previous determinations to identify an eastward decreasing slip-rate gradient and termination of the Kunlun fault within the Anyemaqen Shan. Existing geodetic data reveals a similar pattern of eastward-decreasing distributed shear across the fault zone. The spatial coincidence of tectonically driven erosion in the Anyemaqen Shan with the slip-rate gradient and termination the Kunlun fault implies that the crust of the northeastern plateau has the ability to accumulate regionally distributed permanent strain. Therefore, traditional 'rigid-body' rotation type descriptions of Tibetan Plateau kinematics fail to describe deformation on the northeastern plateau.

Wind-Driven Global Evolution of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xue-Ning

It has been realized in the recent years that magnetized disk winds disk- likely play a decisive role in the global evolution of protoplanetary disks protoplanetary evolution (PPDs). Motivated by recent local simulations local , we first describe a global magnetized disk wind model, from which wind-driven accretion rate -rate wind-driven and wind mass loss rate can be reliably estimated. Both rates are shown to strongly depend on the amount of magnetic flux magnetic threading the disk. Wind kinematics is also affected by thermodynamics in the wind zone (particularly far UV heating/ionization), and the mass loss process loss- can be better termed as "magneto-photoevaporation." We then construct a framework of PPD global evolution global that incorporates wind-driven and viscously driven accretion viscously-driven as well as wind mass loss. For typical PPD accretion rates, the required field strength would lead to wind mass loss rate at least comparable to disk accretion rate, and mass loss is most significant in the outer disk (beyond ˜ 10 AU). Finally, we discuss the transport of magnetic flux in PPDs, which largely governs the long-term evolution long-term of PPDs.

Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population.

PubMed

Pepper, D A; Lada, Hania; Thomson, James R; Bakar, K Shuvo; Lake, P S; Mac Nally, Ralph

2017-01-15

Most natural assets, including native biodiversity (our focus), are under increasing threat from direct (loss of habitat, hunting) and indirect (climate change) human actions. Most human impacts arise from increasing human populations coupled with rises in per capita resource use. The rates of change of human actions generally outpace those to which the biota can respond or adapt. If we are to maintain native biodiversity, then we must develop ways to envisage how the biota may be affected over the next several decades to guide management and policy responses. We consider the future for Australia's native biodiversity in the context of two assumptions. First, the human population in Australia will be 40million by 2050, which has been mooted by federal government agencies. Second, greenhouse gas emissions will track the highest rates considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scenarios are based on major drivers of change, which were constructed from seven key drivers of change pertinent to native biodiversity. Five scenarios deal with differing distributions of the human population driven by uncertainties in climate change and in the human responses to climate change. Other scenarios are governed largely by global change and explore different rates of resource use, unprecedented rates of technological change, capabilities and societal values. A narrative for each scenario is provided. The set of scenarios spans a wide range of possible future paths for Australia, with different implications for the future of native biodiversity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Rate of Change of Vergence-Accommodation Conflict Affects Visual Discomfort

PubMed Central

Kane, David; Banks, Martin S.

2014-01-01

Stereoscopic (S3D) displays create conflicts between the distance to which the eyes must converge and the distance to which the eyes must accommodate. Such conflicts require the viewer to overcome the normal coupling between vergence and accommodation, and this effort appears to cause viewer discomfort. Vergence-accommodation coupling is driven by the phasic components of the underlying control systems, and those components respond to relatively fast changes in vergence and accommodative stimuli. Given the relationship between phasic changes and vergence-accommodation coupling, we examined how the rate of change in the vergence-accommodation conflict affects viewer discomfort. We used a stereoscopic display that allows independent manipulation of the stimuli to vergence and accommodation. We presented stimuli that simulate natural viewing (i.e., vergence and accommodative stimuli changed together) and stimuli that simulate S3D viewing (i.e., vergence stimulus changes but accommodative stimulus remains fixed). The changes occurred at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.25Hz. The lowest rate is too slow to stimulate the phasic components while the highest rate is well within the phasic range. The results were consistent with our expectation: somewhat greater discomfort was experienced when stimulus distance changed rapidly, particularly in S3D viewing when the vergence stimulus changed but the accommodative stimulus did not. These results may help in the generation of guidelines for the creation and viewing of stereo content with acceptable viewer comfort. PMID:25448713

The wave numbers of supercritical surface tension driven Benard convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koschmieder, E. L.; Switzer, D. W.

1991-01-01

The cell size or the wave numbers of supercritical hexagonal convection cells in primarily surface tension driven convection on a uniformly heated plate was studied experimentally in thermal equilibrium in thin layers of silicone oil of large aspect ratio. It was found that the cell size decreases with increased temperature difference in the slightly supercritical range, and that the cell size is unique within the experimental error. It was also observed that the cell size reaches a minimum and begins to increase at larger temperature differences. This reversal of the rate of change of the wave number with temperature difference is attributed to influences of buoyancy on the fluid motion. The consequences of buoyancy were tested with three fluid layers of different depth.

The wavenumbers of supercritical surface-tension-driven Benard convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koschmieder, E. L.; Switzer, D. W.

1992-01-01

The cell size or the wavenumbers of supercritical hexagonal convection cells in primarily surface-tension-driven convection on a uniformly heated plate has been studied experimentally in thermal equilibrium in thin layers of silicone oil of large aspect ratio. It has been found that the cell size decreases with increased temperature difference in the slightly supercritical range, and that the cell size is unique within the experimental error. It has also been observed that the cell size reaches a minimum and begins to increase at larger temperature differences. This reversal of the rate of change of the wavenumber with temperature difference is attributed to influences of buoyancy on the fluid motion. The consequences of buoyancy have been tested with three fluid layers of different depth.

Age differences in learning emerge from an insufficient representation of uncertainty in older adults

PubMed Central

Nassar, Matthew R.; Bruckner, Rasmus; Gold, Joshua I.; Li, Shu-Chen; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Eppinger, Ben

2016-01-01

Healthy aging can lead to impairments in learning that affect many laboratory and real-life tasks. These tasks often involve the acquisition of dynamic contingencies, which requires adjusting the rate of learning to environmental statistics. For example, learning rate should increase when expectations are uncertain (uncertainty), outcomes are surprising (surprise) or contingencies are more likely to change (hazard rate). In this study, we combine computational modelling with an age-comparative behavioural study to test whether age-related learning deficits emerge from a failure to optimize learning according to the three factors mentioned above. Our results suggest that learning deficits observed in healthy older adults are driven by a diminished capacity to represent and use uncertainty to guide learning. These findings provide insight into age-related cognitive changes and demonstrate how learning deficits can emerge from a failure to accurately assess how much should be learned. PMID:27282467

Changes in monsoon-driven upwelling in the South China Sea over glacial Terminations I and II: a multi-proxy record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadatzki, Henrik; Sarnthein, Michael; Andersen, Nils

2016-06-01

Upwelling intensity in the South China Sea has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles in response to orbital-scale changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Here, we evaluate new multi-proxy records of two sediment cores from the north-eastern South China Sea to uncover millennial-scale changes in winter monsoon-driven upwelling over glacial Terminations I and II. On the basis of U/Th-based speleothem chronology, we compare these changes with sediment records of summer monsoon-driven upwelling east of South Vietnam. Ocean upwelling is traced by reduced (UK'37-based) temperature and increased nutrient and productivity estimates of sea surface waters (δ13C on planktic foraminifera, accumulation rates of alkenones, chlorins, and total organic carbon). Accordingly, strong winter upwelling occurred north-west of Luzon (Philippines) during late Marine Isotope Stage 6.2, Heinrich (HS) and Greenland stadials (GS) HS-11, GS-26, GS-25, HS-1, and the Younger Dryas. During these stadials, summer upwelling decreased off South Vietnam and sea surface salinity reached a maximum suggesting a drop in monsoon rains, concurrent with speleothem records of aridity in China. In harmony with a stadial-to-interstadial see-saw pattern, winter upwelling off Luzon in turn was weak during interstadials, in particular those of glacial Terminations I and II, when summer upwelling culminated east of South Vietnam. Most likely, this upwelling terminated widespread deep-water stratification, coeval with the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. Yet, a synchronous maximum in precipitation fostered estuarine overturning circulation in the South China Sea, in particular as long as the Borneo Strait was closed when sea level dropped below -40 m.

Universals versus historical contingencies in lexical evolution

PubMed Central

Bochkarev, V.; Solovyev, V.; Wichmann, S.

2014-01-01

The frequency with which we use different words changes all the time, and every so often, a new lexical item is invented or another one ceases to be used. Beyond a small sample of lexical items whose properties are well studied, little is known about the dynamics of lexical evolution. How do the lexical inventories of languages, viewed as entire systems, evolve? Is the rate of evolution of the lexicon contingent upon historical factors or is it driven by regularities, perhaps to do with universals of cognition and social interaction? We address these questions using the Google Books N-Gram Corpus as a source of data and relative entropy as a measure of changes in the frequency distributions of words. It turns out that there are both universals and historical contingencies at work. Across several languages, we observe similar rates of change, but only at timescales of at least around five decades. At shorter timescales, the rate of change is highly variable and differs between languages. Major societal transformations as well as catastrophic events such as wars lead to increased change in frequency distributions, whereas stability in society has a dampening effect on lexical evolution. PMID:25274040

Early Student Support for a Process Study of Oceanic Responses to Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-21

responses to tropical cyclone forcing are surface waves, wind-driven currents, shear and turbulence, and inertial currents. Quantifying the effect ...Cd is estimated assuming a balance between the time rate change of the depth-integrated horizontal momentum, Coriolis force, and the wind stress. This...negligible pressure gradient effect . Most of the observed horizontal kinetic energy is within the upper 100 m. The available potential energy and

Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

2009-03-01

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.

Antarctic surface elevation and slope from multi-mission lidar mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Neumann, T.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

We present integrated estimates of surface elevation change and slope for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a combination of measurements from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS) and the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-1). This technique is a data-driven approach that calculates elevation differentials on a shot-by-shot basis. Our method extends the records of each instrument, increases the overall spatial coverage compared to a single instrument and produces high-quality, integrated maps of surface elevation, surface elevation change and slope. We use our estimates of elevation change to assess the current state of major outlet glaciers in the Bellinghausen Sea, Amundsen Sea and Getz regions of West Antarctica (WAIS). In the Amundsen Sea, we find that thinning rates of Pine Island Glacier have decreased after 2011 while thinning rates of Smith and Kohler glaciers have increased unabated.

Can Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) be used to reconstruct palaeo-climate and sea-level histories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2011-12-01

Reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions over long time periods is notoriously difficult, especially where there are limited or no proxy records from which to extract data. Application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) for palaeo-environmental reconstruction involves hindcast modeling, in which simulation scenarios are configured with specific model variables and parameters chosen to reflect a specific hypothesis of environmental change. In this form of modeling, the environmental time series utilized are considered credible when modeled and observed landscape metrics converge. Herein we account for the uncertainties involved in evaluating the degree to which the model simulations and observations converge using Monte Carlo analysis of reduced complexity `metamodels'. The technique is applied to a case study focused on a specific set of gullies found on the southwest coast of the Isle of Wight, UK. A key factor controlling the Holocene evolution of these coastal gullies is the balance between rates of sea-cliff retreat (driven by sea-level rise) and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration (driven by the rate of runoff). We simulate these processes using a version of the GOLEM model that has been modified to represent sea-cliff retreat. A Central Composite Design (CCD) sampling technique was employed, enabling the trajectories of gully response to different combinations of driving conditions to be modeled explicitly. In some of these simulations, where the range of bedrock erodibility (0.03 to 0.04 m0.2 a-1) and rate of sea-level change (0.005 to 0.0059 m a-1) is tightly constrained, modeled gully forms conform closely to those observed in reality, enabling a suite of climate and sea-level change scenarios which plausibly explain the Holocene evolution of the Isle of Wight gullies to be identified.

Professional musicians listen differently to music.

PubMed

Mikutta, C A; Maissen, G; Altorfer, A; Strik, W; Koenig, T

2014-05-30

Experience-based adaptation of emotional responses is an important faculty for cognitive and emotional functioning. Professional musicians represent an ideal model in which to elicit experience-driven changes in the emotional processing domain. The changes of the central representation of emotional arousal due to musical expertise are still largely unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the electroencephalogram (EEG) correlates of experience-driven changes in the domain of emotional arousal. Therefore, the differences in perceived (subjective arousal via ratings) and physiologically measured (EEG) arousal between amateur and professional musicians were examined. A total of 15 professional and 19 amateur musicians listened to the first movement of Ludwig van Beethoven's 5th symphony (duration=∼7.4min), during which a continuous 76-channel EEG was recorded. In a second session, the participants evaluated their emotional arousal during listening. In a tonic analysis, we examined the average EEG data over the time course of the music piece. For a phasic analysis, a fast Fourier transform was performed and covariance maps of spectral power were computed in association with the subjective arousal ratings. The subjective arousal ratings of the professional musicians were more consistent than those of the amateur musicians. In the tonic EEG analysis, a mid-frontal theta activity was observed in the professionals. In the phasic EEG, the professionals exhibited an increase of posterior alpha, central delta, and beta rhythm during high arousal. Professionals exhibited different and/or more intense patterns of emotional activation when they listened to the music. The results of the present study underscore the impact of music experience on emotional reactions. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge-driven institutional change: an empirical study on combating desertification in northern China from 1949 to 2004.

PubMed

Yang, Lihua; Wu, Jianguo

2012-11-15

Understanding institutional changes is crucial for environmental management. Here we investigated how institutional changes influenced the process and result of desertification control in northern China between 1949 and 2004. Our analysis was based on a case study of 21 field sites and a meta-analysis of additional 29 sites reported in the literature. Our results show that imposed knowledge-driven institutional change was often perceived as a more progressive, scientific, and rational type of institutional change by entrepreneurs, scholars, experts, and technicians, while voluntary, knowledge-driven institutional change based on indigenous knowledge and experiences of local populations was discouraged. Our findings also demonstrate that eight working rules of imposed knowledge-driven institutional change can be applied to control desertification effectively. These rules address the issues of perception of potential gains, entrepreneurs' appeals and support, coordination of multiple goals, collaboration among multiple organizations, interest distribution and conflict resolution, incremental institutional change, external intervention, and coordination among the myriad institutions involved. Imposed knowledge-driven institutional change tended to be more successful when these rules were thoroughly implemented. These findings provide an outline for implementing future institutional changes and policy making to combat desertification and other types of ecological and environmental management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What has contributed to the change in life expectancy in Italy between 1980 and 1992?

PubMed

Ngongo, K N; Nante, N; Chenet, L; McKee, M

1999-07-01

Life expectancy at birth in southern Europe is known to be greater than expected in comparison with levels of economic development. This has been attributed to the 'Mediterranean diet'. There are, however, concerns that this comparative advantage is being lost. This paper examines the factors underlying changing life expectancy in Italy since 1980. The subjects of this analysis are obtained from data on all deaths in Italy between 1980 and 1992. Change in age specific death rates is calculated from selected causes and, using the method developed by Pollard, the contribution of deaths from different causes and at different ages to changing life expectancy at birth is estimated. Between 1980 and 1992, life expectancy at birth increased by 2.70 years for men and 2.75 years for women. Death rates have fallen among children and those over 40. In contrast, death rates have increased among men aged between 20 and 39 and have increased very slightly among women aged 25-29. Falling death rates from ischaemic heart disease are continuing to contribute to increasing life expectancy. Death rates from lung and breast cancer are rising among women but are compensated for by falling death rates from other cancers. Among men, falling death rates from cancer at younger ages are being offset by increases at older ages. The rising death rate among younger men is almost entirely due to AIDS, with accidents also making a small contribution. Life expectancy in Italy has improved throughout the 1980s, largely driven by falling death rates from cardiovascular diseases. Here are, however, some worrying trends, most notably the rising death rate among young men, due almost entirely to AIDS. The changing pattern of mortality has some similarities with Spain, another Mediterranean country, but there are also important differences.

Noise-Driven Phenotypic Heterogeneity with Finite Correlation Time in Clonal Populations.

PubMed

Lee, UnJin; Skinner, John J; Reinitz, John; Rosner, Marsha Rich; Kim, Eun-Jin

2015-01-01

There has been increasing awareness in the wider biological community of the role of clonal phenotypic heterogeneity in playing key roles in phenomena such as cellular bet-hedging and decision making, as in the case of the phage-λ lysis/lysogeny and B. Subtilis competence/vegetative pathways. Here, we report on the effect of stochasticity in growth rate, cellular memory/intermittency, and its relation to phenotypic heterogeneity. We first present a linear stochastic differential model with finite auto-correlation time, where a randomly fluctuating growth rate with a negative average is shown to result in exponential growth for sufficiently large fluctuations in growth rate. We then present a non-linear stochastic self-regulation model where the loss of coherent self-regulation and an increase in noise can induce a shift from bounded to unbounded growth. An important consequence of these models is that while the average change in phenotype may not differ for various parameter sets, the variance of the resulting distributions may considerably change. This demonstrates the necessity of understanding the influence of variance and heterogeneity within seemingly identical clonal populations, while providing a mechanism for varying functional consequences of such heterogeneity. Our results highlight the importance of a paradigm shift from a deterministic to a probabilistic view of clonality in understanding selection as an optimization problem on noise-driven processes, resulting in a wide range of biological implications, from robustness to environmental stress to the development of drug resistance.

Coastal groundwater exchange on a small Pacific atoll island: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberle, Ferdinand K. J.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Storlazzi, Curt

2017-04-01

Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands globally due to their unique geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources of atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island communities, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. We here present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data to determine the role of the atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange on the island of Roi Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on such islands to expected climate change-driven perturbations.

Reduction in the write error rate of voltage-induced dynamic magnetization switching using the reverse bias method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeura, Takuro; Nozaki, Takayuki; Shiota, Yoichi; Yamamoto, Tatsuya; Imamura, Hiroshi; Kubota, Hitoshi; Fukushima, Akio; Suzuki, Yoshishige; Yuasa, Shinji

2018-04-01

Using macro-spin modeling, we studied the reduction in the write error rate (WER) of voltage-induced dynamic magnetization switching by enhancing the effective thermal stability of the free layer using a voltage-controlled magnetic anisotropy change. Marked reductions in WER can be achieved by introducing reverse bias voltage pulses both before and after the write pulse. This procedure suppresses the thermal fluctuations of magnetization in the initial and final states. The proposed reverse bias method can offer a new way of improving the writing stability of voltage-driven spintronic devices.

Proportional mechanical ventilation through PWM driven on/off solenoid valve.

PubMed

Sardellitti, I; Cecchini, S; Silvestri, S; Caldwell, D G

2010-01-01

Proportional strategies for artificial ventilation are the most recent form of synchronized partial ventilatory assistance and intra-breath control techniques available in clinical practice. Currently, the majority of commercial ventilators allowing proportional ventilation uses proportional valves to generate the flow rate pattern. This paper proposes on-off solenoid valves for proportional ventilation given their small size, low cost and short switching time, useful for supplying high frequency ventilation. A new system based on a novel fast switching driver circuit combined with on/off solenoid valve is developed. The average short response time typical of onoff solenoid valves was further reduced through the driving circuit for the implementation of PWM control. Experimental trials were conducted for identifying the dynamic response of the PWM driven on/off valve and for verifying its effectiveness in generating variable-shaped ventilatory flow rate patterns. The system was able to smoothly follow the reference flow rate patterns also changing in time intervals as short as 20 ms, achieving a flow rate resolution up to 1 L/min and repeatability in the order of 0.5 L/min. Preliminary results showed the feasibility of developing a stand alone portable device able to generate both proportional and high frequency ventilation by only using on-off solenoid valves.

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Dossena, Matteo; Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Grey, Jonathan; Montoya, José M.; Perkins, Daniel M.; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy

2012-01-01

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization. PMID:22496185

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Energy driven self-organization in nanoscale metallic liquid films.

PubMed

Krishna, H; Shirato, N; Favazza, C; Kalyanaraman, R

2009-10-01

Nanometre thick metallic liquid films on inert substrates can spontaneously dewet and self-organize into complex nanomorphologies and nanostructures with well-defined length scales. Nanosecond pulses of an ultraviolet laser can capture the dewetting evolution and ensuing nanomorphologies, as well as introduce dramatic changes to dewetting length scales due to the nanoscopic nature of film heating. Here, we show theoretically that the self-organization principle, based on equating the rate of transfer of thermodynamic free energy to rate of loss in liquid flow, accurately describes the spontaneous dewetting. Experimental measurements of laser dewetting of Ag and Co liquid films on SiO(2) substrates confirm this principle. This energy transfer approach could be useful for analyzing the behavior of nanomaterials and chemical processes in which spontaneous changes are important.

Rapid shifts in South American montane climates driven by pCO2 and ice volume changes over the last two glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groot, M. H. M.; Bogotá, R. G.; Lourens, L. J.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Vriend, M.; Berrio, J. C.; Tuenter, E.; van der Plicht, J.; van Geel, B.; Ziegler, M.; Weber, S. L.; Betancourt, A.; Contreras, L.; Gaviria, S.; Giraldo, C.; González, N.; Jansen, J. H. F.; Konert, M.; Ortega, D.; Rangel, O.; Sarmiento, G.; Vandenberghe, J.; van der Hammen, T.; van der Linden, M.; Westerhoff, W.

2010-10-01

Tropical montane biome migration patterns in the northern Andes are found to be coupled to glacial-induced mean annual temperature (MAT) changes; however, the accuracy and resolution of current records are insufficient to fully explore their magnitude and rates of change. Here we present a ~60-year resolution pollen record over the past 284 000 years from Lake Fúquene (5° N) in Colombia. This record shows rapid and extreme MAT changes at 2540 m elevation of up to 10 ± 2 °C within a few hundred of years that concur with the ~100 and 41-kyr (obliquity) paced glacial cycles and North Atlantic abrupt climatic events as documented in ice cores and marine sediments. Using transient climate modelling experiments we demonstrate that insolation-controlled ice volume and greenhouse gasses are the major forcing agents causing the orbital MAT changes, but that the model simulations significantly underestimate changes in lapse rates and local hydrology and vegetation feedbacks within the studied region due to its low spatial resolution.

Impact of a pharmacist-driven protocol to decrease proton pump inhibitor use in non-intensive care hospitalized adults.

PubMed

Michal, Jessica; Henry, Thomas; Street, Connie

2016-09-01

Results of a pharmacist-driven protocol to decrease proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use in non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalized adults are presented. This concurrent preintervention and postintervention study included subjects at least 18 years of age receiving PPIs while hospitalized in general medical or surgical beds. Patients were identified for inclusion in the postintervention group using a daily list of hospitalized patients with active PPI orders. A pharmacist evaluated these subjects for PPI appropriateness, and then recommended discontinuing or changing PPIs to histamine H2-receptor antagonists. Per protocol, the pharmacist could change PPIs to H2-antagonists if prescribers did not respond to recommendations. Preintervention group patients were gathered retrospectively and treated as the retrospective control group. Patients were excluded if they had cumulative ICU or ICU step-down stays of at least two days, had predefined appropriate indications for PPIs, or were not evaluated within one day of PPI orders. The primary outcome was the rate of PPI use. Secondary objectives included rates of prescriber acceptance of pharmacist recommendations and hospital-onset Clostridium difficile infections (HO-CDI). PPIs were discontinued in 66.0% (n = 62) of postintervention group patients compared to 41.1% (n = 39) of the preintervention group (absolute risk reduction, 24.9%; p = 0.001). In the postintervention group, 31.9% (n = 30) of recommendations were accepted, whereas 11.7% (n = 11) were rejected. No subjects in either group were diagnosed with HO-CDI during the study period. The pharmacist-driven protocol described in this study decreased PPI use in non-ICU hospitalized adults. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adusumilli, Susheel; Fricker, Helen Amanda; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Padman, Laurie; Paolo, Fernando S.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.

2018-05-01

We have constructed 23-year (1994-2016) time series of Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice-shelf height change using data from four satellite radar altimeters (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, and CryoSat-2). Combining these time series with output from atmospheric and firn models, we partitioned the total height-change signal into contributions from varying surface mass balance, firn state, ice dynamics, and basal mass balance. On the Bellingshausen coast of the AP, ice shelves lost 84 ± 34 Gt a-1 to basal melting, compared to contributions of 50 ± 7 Gt a-1 from surface mass balance and ice dynamics. Net basal melting on the Weddell coast was 51 ± 71 Gt a-1. Recent changes in ice-shelf height include increases over major AP ice shelves driven by changes in firn state. Basal melt rates near Bawden Ice Rise, a major pinning point of Larsen C Ice Shelf, showed large increases, potentially leading to substantial loss of buttressing if sustained.

Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Desprez, Marine; Fay, Remi; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Delord, Karine; Caswell, Hal

2018-07-01

Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: "Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?" We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry-over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at-sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre-breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry-over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd oxn behalf of British Ecological Society.

Comparison of Measurement And Modeling Of Current Profile Changes Due To Neutral Bean Ion Redistribution During TAE Avalanches in NSTX

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darrow, Douglas

Brief "avalanches" of toroidal Alfven eigenmodes (TAEs) are observed in NSTX plasmas with several different n numbers simultaneously present. These affect the neutral beam ion distribution as evidenced by a concurrent drop in the neutron rate and, sometimes, beam ion loss. Guiding center orbit modeling has shown that the modes can transiently render portions of the beam ion phase space stochastic. The resulting redistribution of beam ions can also create a broader beam-driven current profile and produce other changes in the beam ion distribution function

Population, Migration, and Arctic Community Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, L.; Wirsing, J.

2017-12-01

North American Arctic communities commonly show decadal trends in population growth, driven by natural increase but variably offset by net migration with year-to-year volatility. Migration rates themselves can be a social indicator, integrating a range of push and pull factors. Population and population change of Arctic communities are basic scale properties affecting the resources needed to achieve sustainability, and the adaptations that may be required for climate change (such as relocation from flood-threatened locations). We examine interannual changes 1990-2016 in population and net migration of 43 Alaska Arctic communities, some facing serious threats of flooding. Our Alaska analysis updates previous work with additional years of data. We also extend this demographic analysis for the first time to 25 towns and villages of Nunavut, Canada.

Drought and soil amendment effects on monoterpene emission in rosemary plants.

PubMed

Nogués, I; Muzzini, V; Loreto, F; Bustamante, M A

2015-12-15

The aim of this work was to study the changes during 15days in the monoterpene emission rates of the Mediterranean shrub rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.), in response to increasing drought stress and fertilisation using two different composts derived from livestock anaerobic digestates (cattle and pig slurry). Drought stress considerably reduced photosynthetic rates, stomatal conductance and isoprenoid emissions and also induced a change in blend composition. In the drought stressed rosemary plants, a positive relationship of non-oxygenated monoterpene emissions and a negative relationship of oxygenated monoterpene with photosynthesis were observed, indicating a different control mechanism over the emissions of the two types of isoprenoids. The emission of non-oxygenated monoterpenes seemed to depend more on photosynthesis and "de novo" synthesis, whereas emission of oxygenate monoterpenes was more dependent on volatilisation from storage, mainly driven by cumulative temperatures. In the short term, the addition of composted organic materials to the soil did not induce a significant effect on isoprenoid emission rates in the rosemary plants. However, the effect of the interaction between fertilisation and seasonality on isoprenoid emission rates was influenced by the amendment origin. Also, we emphasized changes in potential isoprenoid emission factors throughout the experiment, probably indicating changes in the leaf developmental stage. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Metabolic and Epigenetic Interactions Regulate Vascular Phenotypic Change and Maintenance in Pulmonary Hypertension

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

Krebs cycle through the generation of alpha-ketoglutarate. However, increased oxidative stress affected oxygen consumption rates at the Complex I...machinery and respiration in PH-Fibs. The difference in endogenous respiration, (i.e., oxygen consumption ) was not statistically different compared...driven through complex I. We found a roughly17% drop in oxygen consumption in PH-Fibs versus Co-Fibs (Figure 3C), which corresponded to the down

Controlling laser driven protons acceleration using a deformable mirror at a high repetition rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noaman-ul-Haq, M.; Sokollik, T.; Ahmed, H.; Braenzel, J.; Ehrentraut, L.; Mirzaie, M.; Yu, L.-L.; Sheng, Z. M.; Chen, L. M.; Schnürer, M.; Zhang, J.

2018-03-01

We present results from a proof-of-principle experiment to optimize laser driven protons acceleration by directly feeding back its spectral information to a deformable mirror (DM) controlled by evolutionary algorithms (EAs). By irradiating a stable high-repetition rate tape driven target with ultra-intense pulses of intensities ∼1020 W/ cm2, we optimize the maximum energy of the accelerated protons with a stability of less than ∼5% fluctuations near optimum value. Moreover, due to spatio-temporal development of the sheath field, modulations in the spectrum are also observed. Particularly, a prominent narrow peak is observed with a spread of ∼15% (FWHM) at low energy part of the spectrum. These results are helpful to develop high repetition rate optimization techniques required for laser-driven ion accelerators.

Mechanisms Regulating Insulin Response to Intragastric Glucose in Lean and Non-Diabetic Obese Subjects: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group Trial

PubMed Central

Meyer-Gerspach, Anne Christin; Cajacob, Lucian; Riva, Daniele; Herzog, Raphael; Drewe, Juergen; Beglinger, Christoph; Wölnerhanssen, Bettina K.

2016-01-01

Background/Objectives The changes in blood glucose concentrations that result from an oral glucose challenge are dependent on the rate of gastric emptying, the rate of glucose absorption and the rate of insulin-driven metabolism that include the incretins, glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). The rate of insulin-driven metabolism is clearly altered in obese subjects, but it is controversial which of these factors is predominant. We aimed to quantify gastric emptying, plasma insulin, C-peptide, glucagon and glucose responses, as well as incretin hormone secretions in obese subjects and healthy controls during increasing glucose loads. Subjects/Methods The study was conducted as a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial in a hospital research unit. A total of 12 normal weight (6 men and 6 women) and 12 non-diabetic obese (BMI > 30, 6 men and 6 women) participants took part in the study. Subjects received intragastric loads of 10 g, 25 g and 75 g glucose dissolved in 300 ml tap water. Results Main outcome measures were plasma GLP-1 and GIP, plasma glucagon, glucose, insulin, C-peptide and gastric emptying. The primary findings are: i) insulin resistance (P < 0.001) and hyperinsulinemia (P < 0.001); ii) decreased insulin disposal (P < 0.001); iii) trend for reduced GLP-1 responses at 75 g glucose; and iv) increased fasting glucagon levels (P < 0.001) in obese subjects. Conclusions It seems that, rather than changes in incretin secretion, fasting hyperglucagonemia and consequent hyperglycemia play a role in reduced disposal of insulin, contributing to hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01875575 PMID:26942445

A novel miniature dynamic microfluidic cell culture platform using electro-osmosis diode pumping.

PubMed

Chang, Jen-Yung; Wang, Shuo; Allen, Jeffrey S; Lee, Seong Hyuk; Chang, Suk Tai; Choi, Young-Ki; Friedrich, Craig; Choi, Chang Kyoung

2014-07-01

An electro-osmosis (EOS) diode pumping platform capable of culturing cells in fluidic cellular micro-environments particularly at low volume flow rates has been developed. Diode pumps have been shown to be a viable alternative to mechanically driven pumps. Typically electrokinetic micro-pumps were limited to low-concentration solutions (≤10 mM). In our approach, surface mount diodes were embedded along the sidewalls of a microchannel to rectify externally applied alternating current into pulsed direct current power across the diodes in order to generate EOS flows. This approach has for the first time generated flows at ultra-low flow rates (from 2.0 nl/s to 12.3 nl/s) in aqueous solutions with concentrations greater than 100 mM. The range of flow was generated by changing the electric field strength applied to the diodes from 0.5 Vpp/cm to 10 Vpp/cm. Embedding an additional diode on the upper surface of the enclosed microchannel increased flow rates further. We characterized the diode pump-driven fluidics in terms of intensities and frequencies of electric inputs, pH values of solutions, and solution types. As part of this study, we found that the growth of A549 human lung cancer cells was positively affected in the microfluidic diode pumping system. Though the chemical reaction compromised the fluidic control overtime, the system could be maintained fully functional over a long time if the solution was changed every hour. In conclusion, the advantage of miniature size and ability to accurately control fluids at ultra-low volume flow rates can make this diode pumping system attractive to lab-on-a-chip applications and biomedical engineering in vitro studies.

A novel miniature dynamic microfluidic cell culture platform using electro-osmosis diode pumping

PubMed Central

Chang, Jen-Yung; Wang, Shuo; Allen, Jeffrey S.; Lee, Seong Hyuk; Chang, Suk Tai; Choi, Young-Ki; Friedrich, Craig; Choi, Chang Kyoung

2014-01-01

An electro-osmosis (EOS) diode pumping platform capable of culturing cells in fluidic cellular micro-environments particularly at low volume flow rates has been developed. Diode pumps have been shown to be a viable alternative to mechanically driven pumps. Typically electrokinetic micro-pumps were limited to low-concentration solutions (≤10 mM). In our approach, surface mount diodes were embedded along the sidewalls of a microchannel to rectify externally applied alternating current into pulsed direct current power across the diodes in order to generate EOS flows. This approach has for the first time generated flows at ultra-low flow rates (from 2.0 nl/s to 12.3 nl/s) in aqueous solutions with concentrations greater than 100 mM. The range of flow was generated by changing the electric field strength applied to the diodes from 0.5 Vpp/cm to 10 Vpp/cm. Embedding an additional diode on the upper surface of the enclosed microchannel increased flow rates further. We characterized the diode pump-driven fluidics in terms of intensities and frequencies of electric inputs, pH values of solutions, and solution types. As part of this study, we found that the growth of A549 human lung cancer cells was positively affected in the microfluidic diode pumping system. Though the chemical reaction compromised the fluidic control overtime, the system could be maintained fully functional over a long time if the solution was changed every hour. In conclusion, the advantage of miniature size and ability to accurately control fluids at ultra-low volume flow rates can make this diode pumping system attractive to lab-on-a-chip applications and biomedical engineering in vitro studies. PMID:25379101

Thermal and Driven Stochastic Growth of Langmuir Waves in the Solar Wind and Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.; Anderson, R. R.

2000-01-01

Statistical distributions of Langmuir wave fields in the solar wind and the edge of Earth's foreshock are analyzed and compared with predictions for stochastic growth theory (SGT). SGT quantitatively explains the solar wind, edge, and deep foreshock data as pure thermal waves, driven thermal waves subject to net linear growth and stochastic effects, and as waves in a pure SGT state, respectively, plus radiation near the plasma frequency f(sub p). These changes are interpreted in terms of spatial variations in the beam instability's growth rate and evolution toward a pure SGT state. SGT analyses of field distributions are shown to provide a viable alternative to thermal noise spectroscopy for wave instruments with coarse frequency resolution, and to separate f(sub p) radiation from Langmuir waves.

A study of the effect on human mesenchymal stem cells of an atmospheric pressure plasma source driven by different voltage waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurita, R.; Alviano, F.; Marchionni, C.; Abruzzo, P. M.; Bolotta, A.; Bonsi, L.; Colombo, V.; Gherardi, M.; Liguori, A.; Ricci, F.; Rossi, M.; Stancampiano, A.; Tazzari, P. L.; Marini, M.

2016-09-01

The effect of an atmospheric pressure non-equilibrium plasma on human mesenchymal stem cells was investigated. A dielectric barrier discharge non-equilibrium plasma source driven by two different high-voltage pulsed generators was used and cell survival, senescence, proliferation, and differentiation were evaluated. Cells deprived of the culture medium and treated with nanosecond pulsed plasma showed a higher mortality rate, while higher survival and retention of proliferation were observed in cells treated with microsecond pulsed plasma in the presence of the culture medium. While a few treated cells showed the hallmarks of senescence, unexpected delayed apoptosis ensued in cells exposed to plasma-treated medium. The plasma treatment did not change the expression of OCT4, a marker of mesenchymal stem cell differentiation.

Development of a Pharmacy Technician-Driven Program to Improve Vaccination Rates at an Academic Medical Center.

PubMed

Hill, John D; Anderegg, Sammuel V; Couldry, Rick J

2017-10-01

Background: Influenza and pneumococcal disease contribute substantially to the burden of preventable disease in the United States. Despite quality measures tied to immunization rates, health systems have struggled to achieve these targets in the inpatient setting. Pharmacy departments have had success through implementation of pharmacist standing order programs (SOP); however, these initiatives are labor-intensive and have not resulted in 100% immunization rates. Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate a pilot utilizing pharmacy technician interventions, in combination with a nursing SOP, to improve vaccination rates of hospitalized patients for influenza and pneumococcal disease. Methods: A process was developed for pharmacy technicians to identify patients who were not previously screened or immunized during the weekend days on the Cardiovascular Progressive Care unit at the University of Kansas Health-System. Targeted pharmacy technician interventions consisted of phone call reminders and face-to-face discussions with nursing staff. The primary study outcome was the change in immunization compliance rates between the control and intervention groups. Results: Influenza vaccine rates showed a statistically significant increase from 72.2% (52 of 72) of patients during the control group to 92.9% (65 of 70, P = .001) of patients during the intervention group. A pneumococcal vaccination rate of 81.3% (61 of 75) was observed in the control group, compared with 84.3% (59 of 70) of patients in the intervention group ( P = .638). Conclusion: An improvement in inpatient influenza immunization rates can be achieved through targeted follow-up performed by pharmacy technicians, in combination with a nursing-driven SOP.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

The Heavy Links between Geological Events and Vascular Plants Evolution: A Brief Outline

PubMed Central

Piombino, Aldo

2016-01-01

Since the rise of photosynthesis, life has influenced terrestrial atmosphere, particularly the O2 and the CO2 content (the latter being originally more than 95%), changing the chemistry of waters, atmosphere, and soils. Billions of years after, a far offspring of these first unicellular forms conquered emerging lands, not only completely changing landscape, but also modifying geological cycles of deposition and erosion, many chemical and physical characteristics of soils and fresh waters, and, more, the cycle of various elements. So, there are no doubts that vascular plants modified geology; but it is true that also geology has affected (and, more, has driven) plant evolution. New software, PyRate, has determined vascular plant origin and diversification through a Bayesian analysis of fossil record from Silurian to today, particularly observing their origination and extinction rate. A comparison between PyRate data and geological history suggests that geological events massively influenced plant evolution and that also the rise of nonflowering seed plants and the fast diffusion of flowering plants can be explained, almost partly, with the environmental condition changes induced by geological phenomena. PMID:26966609

The Heavy Links between Geological Events and Vascular Plants Evolution: A Brief Outline.

PubMed

Piombino, Aldo

2016-01-01

Since the rise of photosynthesis, life has influenced terrestrial atmosphere, particularly the O2 and the CO2 content (the latter being originally more than 95%), changing the chemistry of waters, atmosphere, and soils. Billions of years after, a far offspring of these first unicellular forms conquered emerging lands, not only completely changing landscape, but also modifying geological cycles of deposition and erosion, many chemical and physical characteristics of soils and fresh waters, and, more, the cycle of various elements. So, there are no doubts that vascular plants modified geology; but it is true that also geology has affected (and, more, has driven) plant evolution. New software, PyRate, has determined vascular plant origin and diversification through a Bayesian analysis of fossil record from Silurian to today, particularly observing their origination and extinction rate. A comparison between PyRate data and geological history suggests that geological events massively influenced plant evolution and that also the rise of nonflowering seed plants and the fast diffusion of flowering plants can be explained, almost partly, with the environmental condition changes induced by geological phenomena.

Sediment color and reflectance record from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 625B, Gulf of Mexico (marine isotope stage 5 interval)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.

1999-01-01

Analysis of climate indicators from the North Atlantic, California Margin, and ice cores from Greenland suggest millennial scale climate variability is a component of earth's climate system during the last interglacial period (marine oxygen isotope stage 5). The USGS is involved in a survey of high resolution marine records covering the last interglacial period (MIS 5) to further document the variability of climate and assess the rate at which climate can change during warm intervals. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is an attractive area for analysis of climate variability and rapid change. Changes in the Mississippi River Basin presumably are translated to the GOM via the river and its effect on sediment distribution and type. Likewise, the summer monsoon in the southwestern US is driven by strong southerly winds. These winds may produce upwelling in the GOM which will be recorded in the sedimentary record. Several areas of high accumulation rate have been identified in the GOM. Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 625 appears to meet the criteria of having a well preserved carbonate record and accumulation rate capable of discerning millennial scale changes.

Academic Medicine's Critical Role in the "Third Curve" of Health Care.

PubMed

Paz, Harold L

2016-05-01

Over the last several years, the health care landscape has changed at an unprecedented rate due to new economic and regulatory forces ushered in by the Affordable Care Act and the introduction of innovative technologies, such as personalized medicine, that are poised to open the door to consumer-driven health care. Tremendous pressure exists on academic health centers to rapidly evolve clinically while not abandoning their unique academic mission. The convergence of personalized medicine, new digital technologies, and changes in health professionals' scope of practice alongside new payment structures will accelerate the move to a patient-centered health system. In this Commentary, the author argues that these new tools and resources must be embraced to improve the health of patients. With the traditional, fee-for-service model of care as "Curve I" and the post-Flexner era of population-based medicine as "Curve II," the author identifies the emergence of "Curve III," which is characterized by patient-centered, consumer-directed models of care. As the old models of health care undergo transition and the impact of technology and analytics grow, future practitioners must be trained to embrace this change and function effectively in the "third curve" of consumer-driven health care.

A comparison of fisheries biological reference points estimated from temperature-specific multi-species and single-species climate-enhanced stock assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsman, Kirstin K.; Ianelli, James; Aydin, Kerim; Punt, André E.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.

2016-12-01

Multi-species statistical catch at age models (MSCAA) can quantify interacting effects of climate and fisheries harvest on species populations, and evaluate management trade-offs for fisheries that target several species in a food web. We modified an existing MSCAA model to include temperature-specific growth and predation rates and applied the modified model to three fish species, walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), from the eastern Bering Sea (USA). We fit the model to data from 1979 through 2012, with and without trophic interactions and temperature effects, and use projections to derive single- and multi-species biological reference points (BRP and MBRP, respectively) for fisheries management. The multi-species model achieved a higher over-all goodness of fit to the data (i.e. lower negative log-likelihood) for pollock and Pacific cod. Variability from water temperature typically resulted in 5-15% changes in spawning, survey, and total biomasses, but did not strongly impact recruitment estimates or mortality. Despite this, inclusion of temperature in projections did have a strong effect on BRPs, including recommended yield, which were higher in single-species models for Pacific cod and arrowtooth flounder that included temperature compared to the same models without temperature effects. While the temperature-driven multi-species model resulted in higher yield MBPRs for arrowtooth flounder than the same model without temperature, we did not observe the same patterns in multi-species models for pollock and Pacific cod, where variability between harvest scenarios and predation greatly exceeded temperature-driven variability in yield MBRPs. Annual predation on juvenile pollock (primarily cannibalism) in the multi-species model was 2-5 times the annual harvest of adult fish in the system, thus predation represents a strong control on population dynamics that exceeds temperature-driven changes to growth and is attenuated through harvest-driven reductions in predator populations. Additionally, although we observed differences in spawning biomasses at the accepted biological catch (ABC) proxy between harvest scenarios and single- and multi-species models, discrepancies in spawning stock biomass estimates did not translate to large differences in yield. We found that multi-species models produced higher estimates of combined yield for aggregate maximum sustainable yield (MSY) targets than single species models, but were more conservative than single-species models when individual MSY targets were used, with the exception of scenarios where minimum biomass thresholds were imposed. Collectively our results suggest that climate and trophic drivers can interact to affect MBRPs, but for prey species with high predation rates, trophic- and management-driven changes may exceed direct effects of temperature on growth and predation. Additionally, MBRPs are not inherently more conservative than single-species BRPs. This framework provides a basis for the application of MSCAA models for tactical ecosystem-based fisheries management decisions under changing climate conditions.

Event-Driven Random-Access-Windowing CCD Imaging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monacos, Steve; Portillo, Angel; Ortiz, Gerardo; Alexander, James; Lam, Raymond; Liu, William

2004-01-01

A charge-coupled-device (CCD) based high-speed imaging system, called a realtime, event-driven (RARE) camera, is undergoing development. This camera is capable of readout from multiple subwindows [also known as regions of interest (ROIs)] within the CCD field of view. Both the sizes and the locations of the ROIs can be controlled in real time and can be changed at the camera frame rate. The predecessor of this camera was described in High-Frame-Rate CCD Camera Having Subwindow Capability (NPO- 30564) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 26. The architecture of the prior camera requires tight coupling between camera control logic and an external host computer that provides commands for camera operation and processes pixels from the camera. This tight coupling limits the attainable frame rate and functionality of the camera. The design of the present camera loosens this coupling to increase the achievable frame rate and functionality. From a host computer perspective, the readout operation in the prior camera was defined on a per-line basis; in this camera, it is defined on a per-ROI basis. In addition, the camera includes internal timing circuitry. This combination of features enables real-time, event-driven operation for adaptive control of the camera. Hence, this camera is well suited for applications requiring autonomous control of multiple ROIs to track multiple targets moving throughout the CCD field of view. Additionally, by eliminating the need for control intervention by the host computer during the pixel readout, the present design reduces ROI-readout times to attain higher frame rates. This camera (see figure) includes an imager card consisting of a commercial CCD imager and two signal-processor chips. The imager card converts transistor/ transistor-logic (TTL)-level signals from a field programmable gate array (FPGA) controller card. These signals are transmitted to the imager card via a low-voltage differential signaling (LVDS) cable assembly. The FPGA controller card is connected to the host computer via a standard peripheral component interface (PCI).

Land-cover trends in the Mojave basin and range ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Raumann, Christian G.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Land-Cover Trends Project aims to estimate the rates of contemporary land-cover change within the conterminous United States between 1972 and 2000. A random sampling approach was used to select a representative sample of 10-km by 10-km sample blocks and to estimate change within +/- 1 percent at an 85-percent confidence interval. Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data were used, and each 60-m pixel was assigned to one of 11 distinct land-cover classes based upon a modified Anderson classification system. Upon completion of land-cover change mapping for five dates, land-cover change statistics were generated and analyzed. This paper presents estimates for the Mojave Basin and Range ecoregion located in the southwestern United States. Our research suggests land-cover change within the Mojave to be relatively rare and highly localized. The primary shift in land cover is unidirectional, with natural desert grass/shrubland being converted to development. We estimate that more than 1,300 km2 have been converted since 1973 and that the conversion is being largely driven by economic and recreational opportunities provided by the Mojave ecoregion. The time interval with the highest rate of change was 1986 to 1992, in which the rate was 0.21 percent (321.9 km2) per year total change.

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Possingham, Hugh P; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-01-01

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, W. S.; Peteet, D. M.; Rind, D.

1985-01-01

The climate record obtained from two long Greenland ice cores reveals several brief climate oscillations during glacial time. The most recent of these oscillations, also found in continental pollen records, has greatest impact in the area under the meteorological influence of the northern Atlantic, but none in the United States. This suggests that these oscillations are caused by fluctuations in the formation rate of deep water in the northern Atlantic. As the present production of deep water in this area is driven by an excess of evaporation over precipitation and continental runoff, atmospheric water transport may be an important element in climate change. Changes in the production rate of deep water in this sector of the ocean may push the climate system from one quasi-stable mode of operation to another.

Numerical analysis of fluid flow and heat transfer during melting inside a cylindrical container for thermal energy storage system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellan, Selvan; Cheok, Cho Hyun; Gokon, Nobuyuki; Matsubara, Koji; Kodama, Tatsuya

2017-06-01

This paper presents a numerical analysis of unconstrained melting of high temperature(>1000K) phase change material (PCM) inside a cylindrical container. Sodium chloride and Silicon carbide have been used as phase change material and shell of the capsule respectively. The control volume discretization approach has been used to solve the conservation equations of mass, momentum and energy. The enthalpy-porosity method has been used to track the solid-liquid interface of the PCM during melting process. Transient numerical simulations have been performed in order to study the influence of radius of the capsule and the Stefan number on the heat transfer rate. The simulation results show that the counter-clockwise Buoyancy driven convection over the top part of the solid PCM enhances the melting rate quite faster than the bottom part.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Effect of heat treatment on ethylene and CO2 emissions rates during papaya (Carica papaya L.) fruit ripening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, M. G.; Santos, E. O.; Sthel, M. S.; Cardoso, S. L.; Cavalli, A.; Monteiro, A. R.; de Oliveira, J. G.; Pereira, M. G.; Vargas, H.

2003-01-01

Ripening studies of nontreated and treated papaya (papaya L) are accomplished by monitoring the ethylene and CO2 emission rates of that climacteric fruit, to evaluate its shelf life. The treatments simulate the commercial Phitosanitarian process used to avoid the fly infestation. Ethylene emission was measured using a commercial CO2 laser driven photoacoustic setup and CO2, using a commercial gas analysis also based on the photothermal effect. The results show a marked change in ethylene and CO2 emission rate pattern for treated fruits when compared to the ones obtained for nontreated fruits and a displacement of the climacteric pick shown that the treatment causes a decrease of shelf life of fruit.

The power of integrating consumerism and wellness.

PubMed

William, C Sharon; Tacker, Linh

2010-01-01

One aspect in our troubling economy that seems to be flourishing is the growing number of employers implementing consumer-driven health (CDH) plans and wellness programs. This article describes the primary areas of participant behavior that consumerism seeks to change and the fundamental factors a "consumer-focused" health care strategy must include. The authors outline issues employers must address when designing a successful incentive program and its accompanying communications strategy. A case study of a company that has a 70% enrollment rate in its CDH plans shows how an integrated consumerism and wellness strategy can slow the rate of health care cost increases for both the employee and employer.

An electronically tunable, first-order Fabry-Perot infrared filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudtson, J. T.; Levy, D. S.; Herr, K. C.

1995-04-01

A tunable infrared filter capable of scanning from 8.2 to 12.8 micrometers has been designed, constructed and tested. It is a first order Fabry Perot interferometer with piezoelectrically driven cavity spacing. Multilayer dielectric coatings for the partially transmitting mirrors were designed to minimize the wavelength dependent phase change produced by reflection. The transmission bandwidth ranged from 2.8 to 4.0% across the tuning range. Continuous scanning at 20 Hz rates was demonstrated.

Characterization of a membrane-based, electrochemically driven pumping system using aqueous electrolyte solutions.

PubMed

Norman, Mya A; Evans, Christine E; Fuoco, Anthony R; Noble, Richard D; Koval, Carl A

2005-10-01

Electrokinetic flow provides a mechanism for a variety of fluid pumping schemes. The design and characterization of an electrochemically driven pump that utilizes porous carbon electrodes, iodide/triiodide redox electrolytes, and Nafion membranes is described. Fluid pumping by the cell is reversible and controlled by the cell current. Chronopotentiometry experiments indicate that the total available fluid that can be pumped in a single electrolysis without gas evolution is determined solely by the initial concentration of electrolyte and the applied current. The magnitude of the fluid flow at a given current is determined by the nature of the cation in the electrolyte and by the water absorption properties of the Nafion membrane. For 1 M aqueous electrolytes, pumping rates ranging from 1 to 14 microL/min were obtained for current densities of 10-30 mA/cm2 of membrane area. Molar volume changes for the I3-/I- redox couple and for the alkali cation migration contribute little to the observed volumetric flow rates; the magnitude of the flow is dominated by the migration-induced flow of water.

Evaporation effects in a shock-driven multiphase instability with a spherical interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paudel, Manoj; Dahal, Jeevan; McFarland, Jacob

2017-11-01

This talk presents results from 3D numerical simulations of a shock driven instability of a gas-particle system with a spherical interface. Two cases, one with an evaporating particle cloud and another with a gas only approximation of this particle cloud, were run in the hydrodynamics code FLASH, developed at University of Chicago. It is shown that the gas only approximation, a classical Richtmyer Meshkov instability, cannot replicate effects from particles like, lag, clustering, and evaporation. Instead, both gas hydrodynamics and particle properties influence one another and are coupled. Results are presented to highlight the coupling of interface evolution and particle evaporation. Qualitative and quantitative differences in the RMI and SDMI are presented by studying the change in gas properties like density and vorticity within the interface. Similarly, the effect of gas hydrodynamics on particles distribution and evaporation is studied. Particle evaporation rates are compared with 1D models and show poor agreement. The variation in evaporation rates for similar sized particles and the role of gas hydrodynamics in these variation is explored.

Functional analysis of apf1 mutation causing defective amino acid transport in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

PubMed

Horák, J; Kotyk, A

1993-04-01

Mutation in the Apf1 locus causes a pleiotropic effect of H(+)-driven active amino acid transport in baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The uptake of other, presumably H(+)-driven, substances, e.g. of purine and pyrimidine bases, maltose and phosphate ions, is not significantly influenced by this mutation. The apf1 mutation decreases not only the initial rates of amino acid uptake but also the accumulation ratios of amino acids taken up but has virtually no effect on the membrane potential or on the delta pH which constitute the thermodynamically relevant source of energy for their transport. Similarly, no changes in intracellular ATP content, in ATP-hydrolyzing and H(+)-extruding H(+)-ATPase activities, in the efflux of intracellularly accumulated amino acids, or in rates of endogenous respiration, were observed in the apf1 mutant phenotype. Hence, all these data are in accordance with the experiments showing that the Apf1 protein, an integral protein of the endoplasmic reticulum, is required exclusively for efficient processing and translocation of transport proteins specific for amino acids from the endoplasmic reticulum to their final destination, the plasma membrane.

Genetics of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2012-01-01

The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Vestibular control of sympathetic activity. An otolith-sympathetic reflex in humans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufmann, H.; Biaggioni, I.; Voustianiouk, A.; Diedrich, A.; Costa, F.; Clarke, R.; Gizzi, M.; Raphan, T.; Cohen, B.

2002-01-01

It has been proposed that a vestibular reflex originating in the otolith organs and other body graviceptors modulates sympathetic activity during changes in posture with regard to gravity. To test this hypothesis, we selectively stimulated otolith and body graviceptors sinusoidally along different head axes in the coronal plane with off-vertical axis rotation (OVAR) and recorded sympathetic efferent activity in the peroneal nerve (muscle sympathetic nerve activity, MSNA), blood pressure, heart rate, and respiratory rate. All parameters were entrained during OVAR at the frequency of rotation, with MSNA increasing in nose-up positions during forward linear acceleration and decreasing when nose-down. MSNA was correlated closely with blood pressure when subjects were within +/-90 degrees of nose-down positions with a delay of 1.4 s, the normal latency of baroreflex-driven changes in MSNA. Thus, in the nose-down position, MSNA was probably driven by baroreflex afferents. In contrast, when subjects were within +/-45 degrees of the nose-up position, i.e., when positive linear acceleration was maximal along the naso-ocipital axis, MSNA was closely related to gravitational acceleration at a latency of 0.4 s. This delay is too short for MSNA changes to be mediated by the baroreflex, but it is compatible with the delay of a response originating in the vestibular system. We postulate that a vestibulosympathetic reflex, probably originating mainly in the otolith organs, contributes to blood pressure maintenance during forward linear acceleration. Because of its short latency, this reflex may be one of the earliest mechanisms to sustain blood pressure upon standing.

The fluid events model: Predicting continuous task action change.

PubMed

Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney; Abbott, Robert G; Morgan, Brent; Fike, Karl; Tamplin, Andrea K

2015-01-01

The fluid events model is a behavioural model aimed at predicting the likelihood that people will change their actions in ongoing, interactive events. From this view, not only are people responding to aspects of the environment, but they are also basing responses on prior experiences. The fluid events model is an attempt to predict the likelihood that people will shift the type of actions taken within an event on a trial-by-trial basis, taking into account both event structure and experience-based factors. The event-structure factors are: (a) changes in event structure, (b) suitability of the current action to the event, and (c) time on task. The experience-based factors are: (a) whether a person has recently shifted actions, (b) how often a person has shifted actions, (c) whether there has been a dip in performance, and (d) a person's propensity to switch actions within the current task. The model was assessed using data from a series of tasks in which a person was producing responses to events. These were two stimulus-driven figure-drawing studies, a conceptually driven decision-making study, and a probability matching study using a standard laboratory task. This analysis predicted trial-by-trial action switching in a person-independent manner with an average accuracy of 70%, which reflects a 34% improvement above chance. In addition, correlations between overall switch rates and actual switch rates were remarkably high (mean r = .98). The experience-based factors played a more major role than the event-structure factors, but this might be attributable to the nature of the tasks.

Potential macro-detritivore range expansion into the subarctic stimulates litter decomposition: a new positive feedback mechanism to climate change?

PubMed

van Geffen, Koert G; Berg, Matty P; Aerts, Rien

2011-12-01

As a result of low decomposition rates, high-latitude ecosystems store large amounts of carbon. Litter decomposition in these ecosystems is constrained by harsh abiotic conditions, but also by the absence of macro-detritivores. We have studied the potential effects of their climate change-driven northward range expansion on the decomposition of two contrasting subarctic litter types. Litter of Alnus incana and Betula pubescens was incubated in microcosms together with monocultures and all possible combinations of three functionally different macro-detritivores (the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus, isopod Oniscus asellus, and millipede Julus scandinavius). Our results show that these macro-detritivores stimulated decomposition, especially of the high-quality A. incana litter and that the macro-detritivores tested differed in their decomposition-stimulating effects, with earthworms having the largest influence. Decomposition processes increased with increasing number of macro-detritivore species, and positive net diveristy effects occurred in several macro-detritivore treatments. However, after correction for macro-detritivore biomass, all interspecific differences in macro-detritivore effects, as well as the positive effects of species number on subarctic litter decomposition disappeared. The net diversity effects also appeared to be driven by variation in biomass, with a possible exception of net diversity effects in mass loss. Based on these results, we conclude that the expected climate change-induced range expansion of macro-detritivores into subarctic regions is likely to result in accelerated decomposition rates. Our results also indicate that the magnitude of macro-detritivore effects on subarctic decomposition will mainly depend on macro-detritivore biomass, rather than on macro-detritivore species number or identity.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

Vestibular control of sympathetic activity. An otolith-sympathetic reflex in humans.

PubMed

Kaufmann, H; Biaggioni, I; Voustianiouk, A; Diedrich, A; Costa, F; Clarke, R; Gizzi, M; Raphan, T; Cohen, B

2002-04-01

It has been proposed that a vestibular reflex originating in the otolith organs and other body graviceptors modulates sympathetic activity during changes in posture with regard to gravity. To test this hypothesis, we selectively stimulated otolith and body graviceptors sinusoidally along different head axes in the coronal plane with off-vertical axis rotation (OVAR) and recorded sympathetic efferent activity in the peroneal nerve (muscle sympathetic nerve activity, MSNA), blood pressure, heart rate, and respiratory rate. All parameters were entrained during OVAR at the frequency of rotation, with MSNA increasing in nose-up positions during forward linear acceleration and decreasing when nose-down. MSNA was correlated closely with blood pressure when subjects were within +/-90 degrees of nose-down positions with a delay of 1.4 s, the normal latency of baroreflex-driven changes in MSNA. Thus, in the nose-down position, MSNA was probably driven by baroreflex afferents. In contrast, when subjects were within +/-45 degrees of the nose-up position, i.e., when positive linear acceleration was maximal along the naso-ocipital axis, MSNA was closely related to gravitational acceleration at a latency of 0.4 s. This delay is too short for MSNA changes to be mediated by the baroreflex, but it is compatible with the delay of a response originating in the vestibular system. We postulate that a vestibulosympathetic reflex, probably originating mainly in the otolith organs, contributes to blood pressure maintenance during forward linear acceleration. Because of its short latency, this reflex may be one of the earliest mechanisms to sustain blood pressure upon standing.

Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics.

PubMed

Arbour, Jessica Hilary; López-Fernández, Hernán

2016-08-17

Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by 'ecological opportunity' are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram-suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram-suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. © 2016 The Author(s).

Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics

PubMed Central

López-Fernández, Hernán

2016-01-01

Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by ‘ecological opportunity’ are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram–suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram–suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. PMID:27512144

The Ed Tech Journey and a Future Driven by Disruptive Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grush, Mary, Ed.

2010-01-01

In this article, the author talks about the education technology journey and a future driven by disruptive change. The author first provides a definition of disruptive change. To understand the potential for disruptive change in higher education--a disruption fueled by technology and related trends--the author begins with a look at the past and…

Quantification of the oxygen uptake rate in a dissolved oxygen controlled oscillating jet-driven microbioreactor.

PubMed

Kirk, Timothy V; Marques, Marco Pc; Radhakrishnan, Anand N Pallipurath; Szita, Nicolas

2016-03-01

Microbioreactors have emerged as a new tool for early bioprocess development. The technology has advanced rapidly in the last decade and obtaining real-time quantitative data of process variables is nowadays state of the art. In addition, control over process variables has also been achieved. The aim of this study was to build a microbioreactor capable of controlling dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and to determine oxygen uptake rate in real time. An oscillating jet driven, membrane-aerated microbioreactor was developed without comprising any moving parts. Mixing times of ∼7 s, and k L a values of ∼170 h -1 were achieved. DO control was achieved by varying the duty cycle of a solenoid microvalve, which changed the gas mixture in the reactor incubator chamber. The microbioreactor supported Saccharomyces cerevisiae growth over 30 h and cell densities of 6.7 g dcw L -1 . Oxygen uptake rates of ∼34 mmol L -1 h -1 were achieved. The results highlight the potential of DO-controlled microbioreactors to obtain real-time information on oxygen uptake rate, and by extension on cellular metabolism for a variety of cell types over a broad range of processing conditions. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Chemical Technology & Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Production of medical radioactive isotopes using KIPT electron driven subcritical facility.

PubMed

Talamo, Alberto; Gohar, Yousry

2008-05-01

Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology (KIPT) of Ukraine in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has a plan to construct an electron accelerator driven subcritical assembly. One of the facility objectives is the production of medical radioactive isotopes. This paper presents the ANL collaborative work performed for characterizing the facility performance for producing medical radioactive isotopes. First, a preliminary assessment was performed without including the self-shielding effect of the irradiated samples. Then, more detailed investigation was carried out including the self-shielding effect, which defined the sample size and location for producing each medical isotope. In the first part, the reaction rates were calculated as the multiplication of the cross section with the unperturbed neutron flux of the facility. Over fifty isotopes have been considered and all transmutation channels are used including (n, gamma), (n, 2n), (n, p), and (gamma, n). In the second part, the parent isotopes with high reaction rate were explicitly modeled in the calculations. Four irradiation locations were considered in the analyses to study the medical isotope production rate. The results show the self-shielding effect not only reduces the specific activity but it also changes the irradiation location that maximizes the specific activity. The axial and radial distributions of the parent capture rates have been examined to define the irradiation sample size of each parent isotope.

Control of the Ability of Profilin to Bind and Facilitate Nucleotide Exchange from G-actin*

PubMed Central

Wen, Kuo-Kuang; McKane, Melissa; Houtman, Jon C. D.; Rubenstein, Peter A.

2008-01-01

A major factor in profilin regulation of actin cytoskeletal dynamics is its facilitation of G-actin nucleotide exchange. However, the mechanism of this facilitation is unknown. We studied the interaction of yeast (YPF) and human profilin 1 (HPF1) with yeast and mammalian skeletal muscle actins. Homologous pairs (YPF and yeast actin, HPF1 and muscle actin) bound more tightly to one another than heterologous pairs. However, with saturating profilin, HPF1 caused a faster etheno-ATP exchange with both yeast and muscle actins than did YPF. Based on the -fold change in ATP exchange rate/Kd, however, the homologous pairs are more efficient than the heterologous pairs. Thus, strength of binding of profilin to actin and nucleotide exchange rate are not tightly coupled. Actin/HPF interactions were entropically driven, whereas YPF interactions were enthalpically driven. Hybrid yeast actins containing subdomain 1 (sub1) or subdomain 1 and 2 (sub12) muscle actin residues bound more weakly to YPF than did yeast actin (Kd = 2 μm versus 0.6 μm). These hybrids bound even more weakly to HPF than did yeast actin (Kd = 5 μm versus 3.2 μm). sub1/YPF interactions were entropically driven, whereas the sub12/YPF binding was enthalpically driven. Compared with WT yeast actin, YPF binding to sub1 occurred with a 5 times faster koff and a 2 times faster kon. sub12 bound with a 3 times faster koff and a 1.5 times slower kon. Profilin controls the energetics of its interaction with nonhybrid actin, but interactions between actin subdomains 1 and 2 affect the topography of the profilin binding site. PMID:18223293

Neighborhood Foreclosures, Racial/Ethnic Transitions, and Residential Segregation

PubMed Central

Hall, Matthew; Crowder, Kyle; Spring, Amy

2015-01-01

In this article, we use data on virtually all foreclosure events between 2005 and 2009 to calculate neighborhood foreclosure rates for nearly all block groups in the United States to assess the impact of housing foreclosures on neighborhood racial/ethnic change and on broader patterns of racial residential segregation. We find that the foreclosure crisis was patterned strongly along racial lines: black, Latino, and racially integrated neighborhoods had exceptionally high foreclosure rates. Multilevel models of racial/ethnic change reveal that foreclosure concentrations were linked to declining shares of whites and expanding shares of black and Latino residents. Results further suggest that these compositional shifts were driven by both white population loss and minority growth, especially from racially mixed settings with high foreclosure rates. To explore the impact of these racially selective migration streams on patterns of residential segregation, we simulate racial segregation assuming that foreclosure rates remained at their 2005 levels throughout the crisis period. Our simulations suggest that the foreclosure crisis increased racial segregation between blacks and whites by 1.1 dissimilarity points, and between Latinos and whites by 2.2 dissimilarity points. PMID:26120142

Ionization and thermal equilibrium models for O star winds based on time-independent radiation-driven wind theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drew, J. E.

1989-01-01

Ab initio ionization and thermal equilibrium models are calculated for the winds of O stars using the results of steady state radiation-driven wind theory to determine the input parameters. Self-consistent methods are used for the roles of H, He, and the most abundant heavy elements in both the statistical and the thermal equilibrium. The model grid was chosen to encompass all O spectral subtypes and the full range of luminosity classes. Results of earlier modeling of O star winds by Klein and Castor (1978) are reproduced and used to motivate improvements in the treatment of the hydrogen equilibrium. The wind temperature profile is revealed to be sensitive to gross changes in the heavy element abundances, but insensitive to other factors considered such as the mass-loss rate and velocity law. The reduced wind temperatures obtained in observing the luminosity dependence of the Si IV lambda 1397 wind absorption profile are shown to eliminate any prospect of explaining the observed O VI lambda 1036 line profiles in terms of time-independent radiation-driven wind theory.

Toroidal Alfvénic Eigenmodes Driven by Energetic Particles with Maxwell and Slowing-down Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Yawei; Zhu, Ping; Zou, Zhihui; Kim, Charlson C.; Hu, Zhaoqing; Wang, Zhengxiong

2016-10-01

The energetic-particle (EP) driven toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) in a circular-shaped large aspect ratio tokamak are studied using the hybrid kinetic-MHD model in the NIMROD code, where the EPs are advanced using the δf particle-in-cell (PIC) method and their kinetic effects are coupled to the bulk plasma through moment closures. Two initial distributions of EPs, Maxwell and slowing-down, are considered. The influence of EP parameters, including density, temperature and density gradient, on the frequency and the growth rate of TAEs are obtained and benchmarked with theory and gyrokinetic simulations for the Maxwell distribution with good agreement. When the density and temperature of EPs are above certain thresholds, the transition from TAE to energetic particle modes (EPM) occurs and the mode structure also changes. Comparisons between Maxwell and slowing-down distributions in terms of EP-driven TAEs and EPMs will also be presented and discussed. Supported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Science Program of China Grant Nos. 2014GB124002 and 2015GB101004, and the Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 11205194.

Brief communication: The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Frederikse, Thomas; King, Matt A.; Marzeion, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2017-06-01

Melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets have made an important contribution to sea-level rise through the last century. Self-attraction and loading effects driven by shrinking ice masses cause a spatially varying redistribution of ocean waters that affects reconstructions of past sea level from sparse observations. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies that they should be properly modelled before interpreting and extrapolating recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.

Resonant obliquity of Mars?. [climate driven by spin axis and orbit plane precession caused oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, William R.; Rudy, Donald J.

1991-01-01

The large-scale oscillations generated by the obliquity of Mars through spin-axis and orbit-plane precessions constitute basic climate system drivers with periodicities of 100,000 yrs in differential spin axis-orbit precession rates and of over 1 million yrs in amplitude modulations due to orbital-inclination changes. Attention is presently given to a third time-scale for climate change, which involves a possible spin-spin resonance and whose mechanism operates on a 10-million-yr time-scale: this effect implies an average obliquity increase for Mars of 15 deg only 5 million yrs ago, with important climatic consequences.

Regulation of electron temperature gradient turbulence by zonal flows driven by trapped electron modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asahi, Y., E-mail: y.asahi@nr.titech.ac.jp; Tsutsui, H.; Tsuji-Iio, S.

2014-05-15

Turbulent transport caused by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes was investigated by means of gyrokinetic simulations. It was found that the ETG turbulence can be regulated by meso-scale zonal flows driven by trapped electron modes (TEMs), which are excited with much smaller growth rates than those of ETG modes. The zonal flows of which radial wavelengths are in between the ion and the electron banana widths are not shielded by trapped ions nor electrons, and hence they are effectively driven by the TEMs. It was also shown that an E × B shearing rate of the TEM-driven zonal flows is larger thanmore » or comparable to the growth rates of long-wavelength ETG modes and TEMs, which make a main contribution to the turbulent transport before excitation of the zonal flows.« less

Spacecraft with gradual acceleration of solar panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merhav, Tamir R. (Inventor); Festa, Michael T. (Inventor); Stetson, Jr., John B. (Inventor)

1996-01-01

A spacecraft (8) includes a movable appendage such as solar panels (12) operated by a stepping motor (28) driven by pulses (311). In order to reduce vibration andor attitude error, the drive pulses are generated by a clock down-counter (312) with variable count ratio. Predetermined desired clock ratios are stored in selectable memories (314a-d), and the selected ratio (R) is coupled to a comparator (330) together with the current ratio (C). An up-down counter (340) establishes the current count-down ratio by counting toward the desired ratio under the control of the comparator; thus, a step change of solar panel speed never occurs. When a direction change is commanded, a flag signal generator (350) disables the selectable memories, and enables a further store (360), which generates a count ratio representing a very slow solar panel rotational rate, so that the rotational rate always slows to a low value before direction is changed. The principles of the invention are applicable to any movable appendage.

Emergence of robust growth laws from optimal regulation of ribosome synthesis.

PubMed

Scott, Matthew; Klumpp, Stefan; Mateescu, Eduard M; Hwa, Terence

2014-08-22

Bacteria must constantly adapt their growth to changes in nutrient availability; yet despite large-scale changes in protein expression associated with sensing, adaptation, and processing different environmental nutrients, simple growth laws connect the ribosome abundance and the growth rate. Here, we investigate the origin of these growth laws by analyzing the features of ribosomal regulation that coordinate proteome-wide expression changes with cell growth in a variety of nutrient conditions in the model organism Escherichia coli. We identify supply-driven feedforward activation of ribosomal protein synthesis as the key regulatory motif maximizing amino acid flux, and autonomously guiding a cell to achieve optimal growth in different environments. The growth laws emerge naturally from the robust regulatory strategy underlying growth rate control, irrespective of the details of the molecular implementation. The study highlights the interplay between phenomenological modeling and molecular mechanisms in uncovering fundamental operating constraints, with implications for endogenous and synthetic design of microorganisms. © 2014 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics.

PubMed

Shaw, Ruth G; Etterson, Julie R

2012-09-01

Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Good vibrations: tactile feedback in support of attention allocation and human-automation coordination in event-driven domains.

PubMed

Sklar, A E; Sarter, N B

1999-12-01

Observed breakdowns in human-machine communication can be explained, in part, by the nature of current automation feedback, which relies heavily on focal visual attention. Such feedback is not well suited for capturing attention in case of unexpected changes and events or for supporting the parallel processing of large amounts of data in complex domains. As suggested by multiple-resource theory, one possible solution to this problem is to distribute information across various sensory modalities. A simulator study was conducted to compare the effectiveness of visual, tactile, and redundant visual and tactile cues for indicating unexpected changes in the status of an automated cockpit system. Both tactile conditions resulted in higher detection rates for, and faster response times to, uncommanded mode transitions. Tactile feedback did not interfere with, nor was its effectiveness affected by, the performance of concurrent visual tasks. The observed improvement in task-sharing performance indicates that the introduction of tactile feedback is a promising avenue toward better supporting human-machine communication in event-driven, information-rich domains.

Front fingering and complex dynamics driven by the interaction of buoyancy and diffusive instabilities.

PubMed

D'Hernoncourt, J; Merkin, J H; De Wit, A

2007-09-01

Traveling fronts can become transversally unstable either because of a diffusive instability arising when the key variables diffuse at sufficiently different rates or because of a buoyancy-driven Rayleigh-Taylor mechanism when the density jump across the front is statically unfavorable. The interaction between such diffusive and buoyancy instabilities of fronts is analyzed theoretically for a simple model system. Linear stability analysis and nonlinear simulations show that their interplay changes considerably the stability properties with regard to the pure Rayleigh-Taylor or diffusive instabilities of fronts. In particular, an instability scenario can arise which triggers convection around statically stable fronts as a result of differential diffusion. Moreover, spatiotemporal chaos can be observed when both buoyancy and diffusive effects cooperate to destabilize the front. Experimental conditions to test our predictions are suggested.

Effect of Finite Chemical Reaction Rates on Heat Transfer to the Walls of Combustion-Driven Supersonic MHD Generator Channels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DAILY, J. W. ..; RAEDER, J.; ZANKL, G.

1974-03-01

The effect of finite-rate homogeneous chemical reactions on the heat transfer rates to the walls of combustion-driven supersonic MHD generators was investigated. Experiments were performed on a 200 kW(e) combustion generator. The density of the heat flux to the wall was measured at various axial positions along both a circular cross section Hall-type channel and a diagonal wall channel with a rectangular cross section. From the results it was concluded that a substantial decrease in heat transfer rate to the walls of a combustion-driven supersonic MHD power generator was ob served which appears to occur because of chemical nonequilibrium inmore » the developing wall boundary layers. (LCL)« less

Investigating rare events with nonequilibrium work measurements. I. Nonequilibrium transition path probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, Mahmoud; Sagui, Celeste; Roland, Christopher

2014-01-01

We have developed a formalism for investigating transition pathways and transition probabilities for rare events in biomolecular systems. In this paper, we set the theoretical framework for employing nonequilibrium work relations to estimate the relative reaction rates associated with different classes of transition pathways. Particularly, we derive an extension of Crook's transient fluctuation theorem, which relates the relative transition rates of driven systems in the forward and reverse directions, and allows for the calculation of these relative rates using work measurements (e.g., in Steered Molecular Dynamics). The formalism presented here can be combined with Transition Path Theory to relate the equilibrium and driven transition rates. The usefulness of this framework is illustrated by means of a Gaussian model and a driven proline dimer.

Current fluctuations in periodically driven systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barato, Andre C.; Chetrite, Raphael

2018-05-01

Small nonequelibrium systems driven by an external periodic protocol can be described by Markov processes with time-periodic transition rates. In general, current fluctuations in such small systems are large and may play a crucial role. We develop a theoretical formalism to evaluate the rate of such large deviations in periodically driven systems. We show that the scaled cumulant generating function that characterizes current fluctuations is given by a maximal Floquet exponent. Comparing deterministic protocols with stochastic protocols, we show that, with respect to large deviations, systems driven by a stochastic protocol with an infinitely large number of jumps are equivalent to systems driven by deterministic protocols. Our results are illustrated with three case studies: a two-state model for a heat engine, a three-state model for a molecular pump, and a biased random walk with a time-periodic affinity.

Transgressive Shoreface Response in the Mississippi River DeltaShoreface Sediment Budget Influence on Barrier Island Evolution, Louisiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beasley, B.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Miner, M. D.

2017-12-01

In Louisiana barrier islands are undergoing rapid morphological change due to shoreface retreat and increasing bay tidal prism driven by high rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) (1 cm/yr) and interior wetland loss, respectively. Previous works utilized historical region-scale bathymetry change and shoreline change analyses to assess large-scale coastal evolution. However, more localized assessments considering the role of sediment transport processes in regional evolution are lacking. This is essential to predicting coastal change trajectories and allocating limited sand resources for nourishment. Using historic bathymetric and shoreline data dating to the 1890s for the Louisiana coast, 100-m spaced shore-normal transects were created to track meter-scale elevation change for 1890, 1930, 1980, 2006, and 2015. An automated framework was used to quantify and track barrier island evolution parameters such as shoreline change, area, width, bathymetric contour migration, and shoreface slope. During the 125 yr analysis period, shoreline erosion mean rates slowed from 12 to 6 m/yr while lower shoreface migration mean rates increased from 5 to 25 m/yr. Locally, retreat rates for the Caminada Headland upper shoreface slowed from 18 to 8 m/yr while lower shoreface retreat rates increased from 8 to 14m/yr. The Timbalier Islands experienced increased migration rates along the entire shoreface, while the lower shoreface of the Isles Dernieres transitioned from progradational to erosional (-5 m/yr in 1890 to 20 m/yr in 2006). Our analysis suggests that although shoreline erosion rates decreased, overall landward migration of the barrier system increased as the shoreface steepened. Our results illustrate that monitoring subaerial island erosion rates are insufficient for evaluating regional dynamics of transgressive coastal systems. The longevity of barriers appears diminished due to a reduction in the shoreface sediment available and further corroborates the role of the shoreface on barrier island evolution. Advances in understanding these processes will facilitate more informed planning, management, and mitigation of transgressive barrier islands.

Comparison of the effects of thermal stress and CO₂-driven acidified seawater on fertilization in coral Acropora digitifera.

PubMed

Iguchi, Akira; Suzuki, Atsushi; Sakai, Kazuhiko; Nojiri, Yukihiro

2015-08-01

Global warming (GW) and ocean acidification (OA) have been recognized as severe threats for reef-building corals that support coral reef ecosystems, but these effects on the early life history stage of corals are relatively unknown compared with the effects on calcification of adult corals. In this study, we evaluated the effects of thermal stress and CO2-driven acidified seawater on fertilization in a reef-building coral, Acropora digitifera. The fertilization rates of A. digitifera decreased in response to thermal stress compared with those under normal seawater conditions. In contrast, the changes of fertilization rates were not evident in the acidified seawater. Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) predicted that sperm/egg crosses and temperature were explanatory variables in the best-fitted model for the fertilization data. In the best model, interactions between thermal stress and acidified seawater on the fertilization rates were not selected. Our results suggested that coral fertilization is more sensitive to future GW than OA. Taking into consideration the previous finding that sperm motility of A. digitifera was decreased by acidified seawater, the decrease in coral cover followed by that of sperm concentration might cause the interacting effects of GW and OA on coral fertilization.

Effect of the helically-trapped energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange modes on energetic ion confinement in the Large Helical Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, K.; Isobe, M.; Kawase, H.; Nishitani, T.; Seki, R.; Osakabe, M.; LHD Experiment Group

2018-04-01

The effect of the helically-trapped energetic-ion-driven resistive interchange modes (EICs) on energetic ion confinement is studied in the Large Helical Device deuterium plasmas. Neutron diagnostics such as the neutron flux monitor and the vertical neutron camera (VNC) are used in order to measure neutrons mainly created by beam-plasma reactions. The line-integrated neutron profiles are obtained by VNC in magnetohydrodynamic-quiet plasma with various neutral beam (NB) injection patterns. The profiles are consistent with that expected by the beam ion density calculated using orbit-following simulations. Significant decreases of the total neutron emission rate (S n) and the neutron counting rate of the VNC (C n) in central cords are observed to be synchronized with EIC bursts with perpendicular-NB injection. The drop rates of both S n and C n increase with EIC amplitude and reach around 50%. The line-integrated neutron profiles before and after EIC burst show that in the central cords, C n decrease due to EIC burst whereas there is almost no change in the other cords. The experimental results suggests that the effect of EIC on helically-trapped beam ion is substantial, however the effect of passing beam ion is not significant.

Use of a fermented dairy probiotic drink containing Lactobacillus casei (DN-114 001) to decrease the rate of illness in kids: the DRINK study. A patient-oriented, double-blind, cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

PubMed

Merenstein, D; Murphy, M; Fokar, A; Hernandez, R K; Park, H; Nsouli, H; Sanders, M E; Davis, B A; Niborski, V; Tondu, F; Shara, N M

2010-07-01

To evaluate whether a fermented dairy drink containing the probiotic strain Lactobacillus casei DN-114 001 could reduce the incidence of common infectious diseases (CIDs) and the change of behavior because of illness in children. We conducted a double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled allocation concealment clinical trial in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. Participants were 638 children 3-6 years old in daycare/schools. The intervention was a fermented dairy drink containing a specific probiotic strain or matching placebo with no live cultures for 90 consecutive days. Two primary outcomes were assessed: incidence of CIDs and change of behavior because of illness (both assessed by parental report). The rate of change of behavior because of illness was similar among active and control groups. However, the incidence rate for CIDs in the active group (0.0782) is 19% lower than that of the control group (0.0986) (incidence rate ratio=0.81, 95% CI: 0.65, 099) P=0.046. Daily intake of a fermented dairy drink containing the probiotic strain L. casei DN-114 001 showed some promise in reducing overall incidence of illness, but was primarily driven by gastrointestinal infections and there were no differences in change of behavior.

The influence of car registration year on driver casualty rates in Great Britain.

PubMed

Broughton, Jeremy

2012-03-01

A previous paper analysed data from the British national road accident reporting system to investigate the influence upon car driver casualty rates of the general type of car being driven and its year of first registration. A statistical model was fitted to accident data from 2001 to 2005, and this paper updates the principal results using accident data from 2003 to 2007. Attention focuses upon the role of year of first registration since this allows the influence of developments in car design upon occupant casualty numbers to be evaluated. Three additional topics are also examined with these accident data. Changes over time in frontal and side impacts are compared. Changes in the combined risk for the two drivers involved in a car-car collision are investigated, being the net result of changes in secondary safety and aggressivity. Finally, the results of the new model relating to occupant protection are related to an index that had been developed previously to analyse changes over time in the secondary safety of the car fleet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic model predicts dynamics of vegetation biomass in a desert ecosystem in NW China

PubMed Central

Wang, Xin-ping; Schaffer, Benjamin Eli; Yang, Zhenlei; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2017-01-01

The temporal dynamics of vegetation biomass are of key importance for evaluating the sustainability of arid and semiarid ecosystems. In these ecosystems, biomass and soil moisture are coupled stochastic variables externally driven, mainly, by the rainfall dynamics. Based on long-term field observations in northwestern (NW) China, we test a recently developed analytical scheme for the description of the leaf biomass dynamics undergoing seasonal cycles with different rainfall characteristics. The probabilistic characterization of such dynamics agrees remarkably well with the field measurements, providing a tool to forecast the changes to be expected in biomass for arid and semiarid ecosystems under climate change conditions. These changes will depend—for each season—on the forecasted rate of rainy days, mean depth of rain in a rainy day, and duration of the season. For the site in NW China, the current scenario of an increase of 10% in rate of rainy days, 10% in mean rain depth in a rainy day, and no change in the season duration leads to forecasted increases in mean leaf biomass near 25% in both seasons. PMID:28584097

Spike Phase Locking in CA1 Pyramidal Neurons depends on Background Conductance and Firing Rate

PubMed Central

Broiche, Tilman; Malerba, Paola; Dorval, Alan D.; Borisyuk, Alla; Fernandez, Fernando R.; White, John A.

2012-01-01

Oscillatory activity in neuronal networks correlates with different behavioral states throughout the nervous system, and the frequency-response characteristics of individual neurons are believed to be critical for network oscillations. Recent in vivo studies suggest that neurons experience periods of high membrane conductance, and that action potentials are often driven by membrane-potential fluctuations in the living animal. To investigate the frequency-response characteristics of CA1 pyramidal neurons in the presence of high conductance and voltage fluctuations, we performed dynamic-clamp experiments in rat hippocampal brain slices. We drove neurons with noisy stimuli that included a sinusoidal component ranging, in different trials, from 0.1 to 500 Hz. In subsequent data analysis, we determined action potential phase-locking profiles with respect to background conductance, average firing rate, and frequency of the sinusoidal component. We found that background conductance and firing rate qualitatively change the phase-locking profiles of CA1 pyramidal neurons vs. frequency. In particular, higher average spiking rates promoted band-pass profiles, and the high-conductance state promoted phase-locking at frequencies well above what would be predicted from changes in the membrane time constant. Mechanistically, spike-rate adaptation and frequency resonance in the spike-generating mechanism are implicated in shaping the different phase-locking profiles. Our results demonstrate that CA1 pyramidal cells can actively change their synchronization properties in response to global changes in activity associated with different behavioral states. PMID:23055508

Dwell Notch Low Cycle Fatigue Behavior of a Powder Metallurgy Nickel Disk Alloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Telesman, J.; Gabb, T. P.; Yamada, Y.; Ghosn, L. J.; Jayaraman, N.

2012-01-01

A study was conducted to determine the processes which govern dwell notch low cycle fatigue (NLCF) behavior of a powder metallurgy (P/M) ME3 disk superalloy. The emphasis was placed on the environmentally driven mechanisms which may embrittle the highly stressed notch surface regions and reduce NLCF life. In conjunction with the environmentally driven notch surface degradation processes, the visco-plastic driven mechanisms which can significantly change the notch root stresses were also considered. Dwell notch low cycle fatigue testing was performed in air and vacuum on a ME3 P/M disk alloy specimens heat treated using either a fast or a slow cooling rate from the solutioning treatment. It was shown that dwells at the minimum stress typically produced a greater life debit than the dwells applied at the maximum stress, especially for the slow cooled heat treatment. Two different environmentally driven failure mechanisms were identified as the root cause of early crack initiation in the min dwell tests. Both of these failure mechanisms produced mostly a transgranular crack initiation failure mode and yet still resulted in low NLCF fatigue lives. The lack of stress relaxation during the min dwell tests produced higher notch root stresses which caused early crack initiation and premature failure when combined with the environmentally driven surface degradation mechanisms. The importance of environmental degradation mechanisms was further highlighted by vacuum dwell NLCF tests which resulted in considerably longer NLCF lives, especially for the min dwell tests.

Individual to Community-Level Faunal Responses to Environmental Change from a Marine Fossil Record of Early Miocene Global Warming

PubMed Central

Belanger, Christina L.

2012-01-01

Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (∼20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1–4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability. PMID:22558424

Hidden Homicide Increases in the USA, 1999–2005

PubMed Central

Hu, Guoqing; Webster, Daniel

2008-01-01

Prior to 1999, dramatic fluctuations in homicide rates were driven by changes in the rates of firearm homicide among men aged 15–24. Since 2000, the overall homicide rate has appeared stable, masking any changes in population subgroups. We analyzed recent trends in homicide rates by weapon, age, race, gender, state, and urbanization to determine whether the risk of victimization increased substantially during 1999–2005 for demographic subgroups. The analysis of WISQARS™ data and Wonder data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed no trend in the homicide rate nationally between 1999 and 2005; this obscured large increases in firearm homicide rates among black men aged 25–44 and among white men aged 25–34. Between 1999 and 2005, for ages 25–44 combined, the increase for black men was 31% compared with 12% for white men. Significant increases among men aged 25–44 occurred in Alabama, California, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. The firearm homicide rate increased the most in large central metropolitan areas (+32%) and large fringe metropolitan areas (+30%) for men aged 25–44. We conclude that the recent, unrecognized increases in firearm homicide among men aged 25–44, especially black men, in large metropolitan areas merit the attention of policymakers. PMID:18509760

Effect of duration and inter-stimulus interval on auditory temporal order discrimination in young normal-hearing and elderly hearing-impaired listeners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narendran, Mini M.; Humes, Larry E.

2003-04-01

Increasing the rate of presentation can have a deleterious effect on auditory processing, especially among the elderly. Rate can be manipulated by changing the duration of individual components of a sequence of sounds, by changing the inter-stimulus interval (ISI) between components, or both. Consequently, when age-related deficits in performance appear to be attributable to rate of stimulus presentation, it is often the case that alternative explanations in terms of the effects of stimulus duration or ISI are also possible. In this study, the independent effects of duration and ISI on the discrimination of temporal order for four-tone sequences were investigated in a group of young normal-hearing and elderly hearing-impaired listeners. It was found that discrimination performance was driven by the rate of presentation, rather than stimulus duration or ISI alone, for both groups of listeners. The performance of the two groups of listeners differed significantly for the fastest presentation rates, but was similar for the slower rates. Slowing the rate of presentation seemed to improve performance, regardless of whether this was done by increasing stimulus duration or increasing ISI, and this was observed for both groups of listeners. [Work supported, in part, by NIA.

Respiration-related discharge of hyoglossus muscle motor units in the rat.

PubMed

Powell, Gregory L; Rice, Amber; Bennett-Cross, Seres J; Fregosi, Ralph F

2014-01-01

Although respiratory muscle motor units have been studied during natural breathing, simultaneous measures of muscle force have never been obtained. Tongue retractor muscles, such as the hyoglossus (HG), play an important role in swallowing, licking, chewing, breathing, and, in humans, speech. The HG is phasically recruited during the inspiratory phase of the respiratory cycle. Moreover, in urethane anesthetized rats the drive to the HG waxes and wanes spontaneously, providing a unique opportunity to study motor unit firing patterns as the muscle is driven naturally by the central pattern generator for breathing. We recorded tongue retraction force, the whole HG muscle EMG and the activity of 38 HG motor units in spontaneously breathing anesthetized rats under low-force and high-force conditions. Activity in all cases was confined to the inspiratory phase of the respiratory cycle. Changes in the EMG were correlated significantly with corresponding changes in force, with the change in EMG able to predict 53-68% of the force variation. Mean and peak motor unit firing rates were greater under high-force conditions, although the magnitude of discharge rate modulation varied widely across the population. Changes in mean and peak firing rates were significantly correlated with the corresponding changes in force, but the correlations were weak (r(2) = 0.27 and 0.25, respectively). These data indicate that, during spontaneous breathing, recruitment of HG motor units plays a critical role in the control of muscle force, with firing rate modulation playing an important but lesser role.

Government, industry, and university partnerships: A model for the knowledge age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varner, Michael O.

1996-03-01

New technologies are transforming the industrial economy into a marketplace driven by information and knowledge. The depth, breadth, and rate of technology development, however, overwhelms our ability to absorb, process, and recall new information. Moreover, the bright future enabled by the knowledge age cannot be realized without the development of new organizational models and philosophies. This paper discusses the necessity for business, government, and universities to create inter-institutional partnerships in order to accommodate change and flourish in the knowledge age.

Response to Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

PubMed

Olive, J-A; Behn, M D; Ito, G; Buck, W R; Escartín, J; Howell, S

2016-07-15

Tolstoy reports the existence of a characteristic 100 thousand year (ky) period in the bathymetry of fast-spreading seafloor but does not argue that sea level change is a first-order control on seafloor morphology worldwide. Upon evaluating the overlap between tectonic and Milankovitch periodicities across spreading rates, we reemphasize that fast-spreading ridges are the best potential recorders of a sea level signature in seafloor bathymetry. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Teachers' Response to Curriculum Change: Balancing External and Internal Change Forces

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellegård, Ingebjørg; Pettersen, Karin Dahlberg

2016-01-01

The present study investigates teachers' perceptions of curriculum change targeting the expanded freedom teachers were given as curriculum developers in the implementation process of the 2006 school reform in Norway. The new curriculum marks a distinct shift, moving from a content-driven to a learning outcomes-driven curriculum. Policy makers…

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Gould, William R.; Hossack, Blake R.; Sepulveda, Adam; Thoma, David P.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.

2016-01-01

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Extracting factors for interest rate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molgedey, L.; Galic, E.

2001-04-01

Factor based interest rate models are widely used for risk managing purposes, for option pricing and for identifying and capturing yield curve anomalies. The movements of a term structure of interest rates are commonly assumed to be driven by a small number of orthogonal factors such as SHIFT, TWIST and BUTTERFLY (BOW). These factors are usually obtained by a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of historical bond prices (interest rates). Although PCA diagonalizes the covariance matrix of either the interest rates or the interest rate changes, it does not use both covariance matrices simultaneously. Furthermore higher linear and nonlinear correlations are neglected. These correlations as well as the mean reverting properties of the interest rates become crucial, if one is interested in a longer time horizon (infrequent hedging or trading). We will show that Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is a more appropriate tool than PCA, since ICA uses the covariance matrix of the interest rates as well as the covariance matrix of the interest rate changes simultaneously. Additionally higher linear and nonlinear correlations may be easily incorporated. The resulting factors are uncorrelated for various time delays, approximately independent but nonorthogonal. This is in contrast to the factors obtained from the PCA, which are orthogonal and uncorrelated for identical times only. Although factors from the ICA are nonorthogonal, it is sufficient to consider only a few factors in order to explain most of the variation in the original data. Finally we will present examples that ICA based hedges outperforms PCA based hedges specifically if the portfolio is sensitive to structural changes of the yield curve.

Large increases in carbon burial in northern lakes during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heathcote, Adam J.; Anderson, N. John; Prairie, Yves T.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Del Giorgio, Paul A.

2015-11-01

Northern forests are important ecosystems for carbon (C) cycling and lakes within them process and bury large amounts of organic-C. Current burial estimates are poorly constrained and may discount other shifts in organic-C burial driven by global change. Here we analyse a suite of northern lakes to determine trends in organic-C burial throughout the Anthropocene. We found burial rates increased significantly over the last century and are up to five times greater than previous estimates. Despite a correlation with temperature, warming alone did not explain the increase in burial, suggesting the importance of other drivers including atmospherically deposited reactive nitrogen. Upscaling mean lake burial rates for each time period to global northern forests yields up to 4.5 Pg C accumulated in the last 100 years--20% of the total burial over the Holocene. Our results indicate that lakes will become increasingly important for C burial under future global change scenarios.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Pharmacy Residency School-wide Match Rates and Modifiable Predictors in ACPE-accredited Colleges and Schools of Pharmacy

PubMed Central

Whittaker, Alana; Shan, Guogen

2017-01-01

Objective. To analyze the modifiable predictors of institution-wide residency match rates. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of colleges and schools of pharmacy data and school-wide PGY-1 pharmacy residency match rates for 2013 through 2015. Independent variables included NAPLEX passing rates, history of ACPE probation, NIH funding, academic health center affiliation, dual-degree availability, program length, admit-to-applicant ratio, class size, tuition, student-driven research, clinically focused academic tracks, residency affiliation, U.S. News & World Report rankings, and minority enrollment. Results. In a repeated measures model, predictors of match results were NAPLEX pass rate, class size, academic health center affiliation, admit-to-applicant ratio, U.S. News & World Report rankings, and minority enrollment. Conclusion. Indicators of student achievement, college/school reputation, affiliations, and class demographics were significant predictors of institution-wide residency match rates. Further research is needed to understand how changes in these factors may influence overall match rates. PMID:29367773

Pharmacy Residency School-wide Match Rates and Modifiable Predictors in ACPE-accredited Colleges and Schools of Pharmacy.

PubMed

Whittaker, Alana; Smith, Katherine P; Shan, Guogen

2017-12-01

Objective. To analyze the modifiable predictors of institution-wide residency match rates. Methods. This was a retrospective analysis of colleges and schools of pharmacy data and school-wide PGY-1 pharmacy residency match rates for 2013 through 2015. Independent variables included NAPLEX passing rates, history of ACPE probation, NIH funding, academic health center affiliation, dual-degree availability, program length, admit-to-applicant ratio, class size, tuition, student-driven research, clinically focused academic tracks, residency affiliation, U.S. News & World Report rankings, and minority enrollment. Results. In a repeated measures model, predictors of match results were NAPLEX pass rate, class size, academic health center affiliation, admit-to-applicant ratio, U.S. News & World Report rankings, and minority enrollment. Conclusion. Indicators of student achievement, college/school reputation, affiliations, and class demographics were significant predictors of institution-wide residency match rates. Further research is needed to understand how changes in these factors may influence overall match rates.

Changes in transcriptional orientation are associated with increases in evolutionary rates of enterobacterial genes.

PubMed

Lin, Chieh-Hua; Lian, Chun-Yi; Hsiung, Chao Agnes; Chen, Feng-Chi

2011-10-05

Changes in transcriptional orientation ("CTOs") occur frequently in prokaryotic genomes. Such changes usually result from genomic inversions, which may cause a conflict between the directions of replication and transcription and an increase in mutation rate. However, CTOs do not always lead to the replication-transcription confrontation. Furthermore, CTOs may cause deleterious disruptions of operon structure and/or gene regulations. The currently existing CTOs may indicate relaxation of selection pressure. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate whether CTOs have an independent effect on the evolutionary rates of the affected genes, and whether these genes are subject to any type of selection pressure in prokaryotes. Three closely related enterbacteria, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, were selected for comparisons of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonymous (dN) substitution rate between the genes that have experienced changes in transcriptional orientation (changed-orientation genes, "COGs") and those that do not (same-orientation genes, "SOGs"). The dN/dS ratio was also derived to evaluate the selection pressure on the analyzed genes. Confounding factors in the estimation of evolutionary rates, such as gene essentiality, gene expression level, replication-transcription confrontation, and decreased dS at gene terminals were controlled in the COG-SOG comparisons. We demonstrate that COGs have significantly higher dN and dS than SOGs when a series of confounding factors are controlled. However, the dN/dS ratios are similar between the two gene groups, suggesting that the increase in dS can sufficiently explain the increase in dN in COGs. Therefore, the increases in evolutionary rates in COGs may be mainly mutation-driven. Here we show that CTOs can increase the evolutionary rates of the affected genes. This effect is independent of the replication-transcription confrontation, which is suggested to be the major cause of inversion-associated evolutionary rate increases. The real cause of such evolutionary rate increases remains unclear but is worth further explorations.

Investigating Reaction-Driven Cracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.; Savage, H. M.

2013-12-01

Many metamorphic reactions lead to large volume changes, and potentially to reaction-driven cracking [1,2]. Large-scale hydration of mantle peridotite to produce serpentine or talc is invoked to explain the rheology of plate boundaries, the nature of earthquakes, and the seismic properties of slow-spread ocean crust and the 'mantle wedge' above subduction zones. Carbonation of peridotite may be an important sink in the global carbon cycle. Zones of 100% magnesite + quartz replacing peridotite, up to 200 m thick, formed where oceanic mantle was thrust over carbonate-bearing metasediments in Oman. Talc + carbonate is an important component of the matrix in subduction mélanges at Santa Catalina Island , California, and the Sanbagawa metamorphic belt, Japan. Engineered systems to emulate natural mineral carbonation could provide relatively inexpensive CO2 capture and storage [3]. More generally, engineered reaction-driven cracking could supplement or replace hydraulic fracture in geothermal systems, solution mining, and extraction of tight oil and gas. The controls on reaction-driven cracking are poorly understood. Hydration and carbonation reactions can be self-limiting, since they potentially reduce permeability and armor reactive surfaces [4]. Also, in some cases, hydration or carbonation may take place at constant volume. Small changes in volume due to precipitation of solid products increases stress, destabilizing solid reactants, until precipitation and dissolution rates become equal at a steady state stress [5]. In a third case, volume change due to precipitation of solid products causes brittle failure. This has been invoked on qualitative grounds to explain, e.g., complete serpentinization of mantle peridotite [6]. Below ~ 300°C, the available potential energy for hydration and carbonation of olivine could produce stresses of 100's of MPa [2], sufficient to fracture rocks to 10 km depth or more, causing brittle failure below the steady state stress required for constant volume replacement. Natural examples have fracture energy densities due to strain energy density of 100's of MPa [2]. Despite theory and observation, until now lab experiments on peridotite hydration and carbonation have not produced reaction-driven cracking. Slow kinetics and limited reactive surface area in low porosity samples may be the cause. Also, maximum stress may be limited by 'disjoining pressure', above which nano-films along grain boundaries collapse, and crystal growth essentially ceases [7]. To address these issues, we've begun experiments on analog materials with fast reaction rates, e.g., CaO + H2O = Ca(OH)2, to efficiently investigate the role of confining pressure and other factors on reaction-driven fracture events. Intriguingly, commercially available 'demolition mortar', largely CaO, produces stresses of 70 MPa or more around 1 inch bore holes at room T and P [8], even though there is a free surface at the top of the borehole, and hydration in a 'closed' system creates ~ 40% air-filled pore space. [1] Jamtveit et al EPSL 08 [2] Kelemen & Hirth EPSL 12 [3] Kelemen et al AREPS 11 [4] Aharonov et al JGR 98 [5] Fletcher & Merino GCA 01 [6] Macdonald & Fyfe T'phys 85 [7] Espinosa-Marzal & Scherer GSL Special Papers 10 [8] Laefer et al Mag Concrete Res 10

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

PubMed

Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V

2000-08-29

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Single unit activity in the medial prefrontal cortex during Pavlovian heart rate conditioning: Effects of peripheral autonomic blockade.

PubMed

Powell, D A; Ginsberg, Jay P

2005-11-01

Electrical activity was recorded from single neurons in the medial prefrontal cortex of rabbits during differential Pavlovian heart rate (HR) conditioning. A heterogeneous population of cells were found, some of which showed CS-evoked increases and others CS-evoked decreases in discharge, while some cells were biphasic. A subset of cells also showed trial-related changes in discharge that were related to acquisition of the HR discrimination between the reinforced CS+ and non-reinforced CS-. Administration of the peripheral cholinergic antagonist, methylscopolamine, and the andrenergic antagonist, atenolol, either increased or decreased maintained baseline activity of many cells, but had little or no effect on the CS-evoked activity of these cells. Waveform changes also did not result from administration of these drugs. This finding suggests that CS-evoked mPFC activity is not being driven by cardiac afferent input to CNS cardiac control centers. Previous studies have shown that ibotenic acid lesions of this area greatly decreases the magnitude of decelerative heart rate conditioned responses; the latter finding, plus the results of the present study, suggest that processing of CS/US contingencies by the prefrontal cortex contributes to the acquisition of autonomic changes during Pavlovian conditioning.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. PMID:10944197

Kernel-Correlated Levy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bo Lijun; Wang Yongjin; Yang Xuewei, E-mail: xwyangnk@yahoo.com.cn

2013-08-01

We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Levy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Levy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure.

Flow enhances photosynthesis in marine benthic autotrophs by increasing the efflux of oxygen from the organism to the water

PubMed Central

Mass, Tali; Genin, Amatzia; Shavit, Uri; Grinstein, Mor; Tchernov, Dan

2010-01-01

Worldwide, many marine coastal habitats are facing rapid deterioration due in part to human-driven changes in habitat characteristics, including changes in flow patterns, a factor known to greatly affect primary production in corals, algae, and seagrasses. The effect of flow traditionally is attributed to enhanced influx of nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) across the benthic boundary layer from the water to the organism however, here we report that the organism’s photosynthetic response to changes in the flow is nearly instantaneous, and that neither nutrients nor DIC limits this rapid response. Using microelectrodes, dual-pulse amplitude-modulated fluorometry, particle image velocimetry, and real time mass-spectrometry with the common scleractinian coral Favia veroni, the alga Gracilaria cornea, and the seagrass Halophila stipulacea, we show that this augmented photosynthesis is due to flow-driven enhancement of oxygen efflux from the organism to the water, which increases the affinity of the RuBisCO to CO2. No augmentation of photosynthesis was found in the absence of flow or when flow occurred, but the ambient concentration of oxygen was artificially elevated. We suggest that water motion should be considered a fundamental factor, equivalent to light and nutrients, in determining photosynthesis rates in marine benthic autotrophs. PMID:20133799

Flow enhances photosynthesis in marine benthic autotrophs by increasing the efflux of oxygen from the organism to the water.

PubMed

Mass, Tali; Genin, Amatzia; Shavit, Uri; Grinstein, Mor; Tchernov, Dan

2010-02-09

Worldwide, many marine coastal habitats are facing rapid deterioration due in part to human-driven changes in habitat characteristics, including changes in flow patterns, a factor known to greatly affect primary production in corals, algae, and seagrasses. The effect of flow traditionally is attributed to enhanced influx of nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) across the benthic boundary layer from the water to the organism however, here we report that the organism's photosynthetic response to changes in the flow is nearly instantaneous, and that neither nutrients nor DIC limits this rapid response. Using microelectrodes, dual-pulse amplitude-modulated fluorometry, particle image velocimetry, and real time mass-spectrometry with the common scleractinian coral Favia veroni, the alga Gracilaria cornea, and the seagrass Halophila stipulacea, we show that this augmented photosynthesis is due to flow-driven enhancement of oxygen efflux from the organism to the water, which increases the affinity of the RuBisCO to CO(2). No augmentation of photosynthesis was found in the absence of flow or when flow occurred, but the ambient concentration of oxygen was artificially elevated. We suggest that water motion should be considered a fundamental factor, equivalent to light and nutrients, in determining photosynthesis rates in marine benthic autotrophs.

Understanding changes over time in workers' compensation claim rates using time series analytical techniques.

PubMed

Moore, Ian C; Tompa, Emile

2011-11-01

The objective of this study is to better understand the inter-temporal variation in workers' compensation claim rates using time series analytical techniques not commonly used in the occupational health and safety literature. We focus specifically on the role of unemployment rates in explaining claim rate variations. The major components of workers' compensation claim rates are decomposed using data from a Canadian workers' compensation authority for the period 1991-2007. Several techniques are used to undertake the decomposition and assess key factors driving rates: (i) the multitaper spectral estimator, (ii) the harmonic F test, (iii) the Kalman smoother and (iv) ordinary least squares. The largest component of the periodic behaviour in workers' compensation claim rates is seasonal variation. Business cycle fluctuations in workers' compensation claim rates move inversely to unemployment rates. The analysis suggests that workers' compensation claim rates between 1991 and 2008 were driven by (in order of magnitude) a strong negative long term growth trend, periodic seasonal trends and business cycle fluctuations proxied by the Ontario unemployment rate.

Influence of Running and Walking on Hormonal Regulators of Appetite in Women

PubMed Central

Larson-Meyer, D. Enette; Palm, Sonnie; Bansal, Aasthaa; Austin, Kathleen J.; Hart, Ann Marie; Alexander, Brenda M.

2012-01-01

Nine female runners and ten walkers completed a 60 min moderate-intensity (70% VO2max) run or walk, or 60 min rest in counterbalanced order. Plasma concentrations of the orexogenic peptide ghrelin, anorexogenic peptides peptide YY (PYY), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), and appetite ratings were measured at 30 min interval for 120 min, followed by a free-choice meal. Both orexogenic and anorexogenic peptides were elevated after running, but no changes were observed after walking. Relative energy intake (adjusted for cost of exercise/rest) was negative in the meal following running (−194 ± 206 kcal) versus walking (41 ± 196 kcal) (P = 0.015), although both were suppressed (P < 0.05) compared to rest (299 ± 308 and 284 ± 121 kcal, resp.). The average rate of change in PYY and GLP-1 over time predicted appetite in runners, but only the change in GLP-1 predicted hunger (P = 0.05) in walkers. Results provide evidence that exercise-induced alterations in appetite are likely driven by complex changes in appetite-regulating hormones rather than change in a single gut peptide. PMID:22619704

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-01-01

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-03-31

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

Climate-driven reduction in soil loss due to the dynamic role of vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantine, J. A.; Ciampalini, R.; Walker-Springett, K.; Hales, T. C.; Ormerod, S.; Gabet, E. J.; Hall, I. R.

2016-12-01

Simulations of 21st century climate change predict increases in seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss and reduced soil carbon stores by increasing the likelihood of surface runoff. Vegetation may counteract this increase through its dynamic response to climate change, possibly mitigating any impact on soil erosion. Here, we document for the first time the potential for vegetation to prevent widespread soil loss by surface-runoff mechanisms (i.e., rill and inter-rill erosion) by implementing a process-based soil erosion model across catchments of Great Britain with varying land-cover, topographic, and soil characteristics. Our model results reveal that, even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion across areas with permanent vegetation cover because of its role in enhancing primary productivity, which improves leaf interception, soil infiltration-capacity, and the erosive resistance of soil. Consequently, any increase in air temperature associated with climate change will increase the threshold change in rainfall required to accelerate soil loss, and rates of soil erosion could therefore decline by up to 50% from 2070-2099 compared to baseline values under the IPCC-defined medium-emissions scenario SRES A1B. We conclude that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism that limits soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset precipitation increases, highlighting the need to expand areas of permanent vegetation cover to reduce the potential for climate-driven soil loss.

Simulating condensation on microstructured surfaces using Lattice Boltzmann Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, Alexander; Vasyliv, Yaroslav

2017-11-01

We simulate a single component fluid condensing on 2D structured surfaces with different wettability. To simulate the two phase fluid, we use the athermal Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) driven by a pseudopotential force. The pseudopotential force results in a non-ideal equation of state (EOS) which permits liquid-vapor phase change. To account for thermal effects, the athermal LBM is coupled to a finite volume discretization of the temperature evolution equation obtained using a thermal energy rate balance for the specific internal energy. We use the developed model to probe the effect of surface structure and surface wettability on the condensation rate in order to identify microstructure topographies promoting condensation. Financial support is acknowledged from Kimberly-Clark.

Thermal Ablation Modeling for Silicate Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yih-Kanq

2016-01-01

A general thermal ablation model for silicates is proposed. The model includes the mass losses through the balance between evaporation and condensation, and through the moving molten layer driven by surface shear force and pressure gradient. This model can be applied in the ablation simulation of the meteoroid and the glassy ablator for spacecraft Thermal Protection Systems. Time-dependent axisymmetric computations are performed by coupling the fluid dynamics code, Data-Parallel Line Relaxation program, with the material response code, Two-dimensional Implicit Thermal Ablation simulation program, to predict the mass lost rates and shape change. The predicted mass loss rates will be compared with available data for model validation, and parametric studies will also be performed for meteoroid earth entry conditions.

Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change.

PubMed

Jones, Bryony A; Grace, Delia; Kock, Richard; Alonso, Silvia; Rushton, Jonathan; Said, Mohammed Y; McKeever, Declan; Mutua, Florence; Young, Jarrah; McDermott, John; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

2013-05-21

A systematic review was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to analyze qualitatively best available scientific evidence on the effect of agricultural intensification and environmental changes on the risk of zoonoses for which there are epidemiological interactions between wildlife and livestock. The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture-environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.

Trends in the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combes, Vincent; Matano, Ricardo P.

2014-12-01

Observations show abrupt changes in the oceanic circulation of the southwestern Atlantic. These studies report a southward drift of the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC) and a change in the spectral characteristics of the Malvinas Current (MC) transport. We address the cause of these changes using the result of a high-resolution numerical experiment. The experiment, which is consistent with observations, shows a southward BMC displacement at a rate of 0.62°/decade between 1993 and 2008, and a shift of the spectral characteristics of the MC transport after 1999. We find that these changes are driven by a weakening of the northern branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which translates to a weakening of the MC transport and a southward BMC drift. The drift changes the spectral characteristics of the MC transport, which becomes more influenced by annual and semiannual variations associated with the BMC.

Lightning-driven electric and magnetic fields measured in the stratosphere: Implications for sprites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jeremy Norman

A well accepted model for sprite production involves quasi-electrostatic fields (QSF) driven by large positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) strokes that can cause electrical breakdown in the middle atmosphere. A new high voltage, high impedance, double Langmuir probe instrument is designed specifically for measuring these large lightning-driven electric field changes at altitudes above 30 km. This High Voltage (HV) Electric Field Detector measured 200 nearby (<75 km) lightning-driven electric field changes, up to 140 V/m in magnitude, during the Brazil Sprite Balloon Campaign 2002--03. A numerical QSF model is developed and compared to the in situ measurements. It is found that the amplitudes and relaxation times of the electric fields driven by these nearby lightning events generally agree with the numerical QSF model, which suggests that the QSF approach is valid for modeling lightning-driven fields. Using the best fit parameters of this comparison, it is predicted that the electric fields at sprite altitudes (60--90 km) never surpass conventional breakdown in the mesosphere for each of these 200 nearby lightning events. Lightning-driven ELF to VLF (25 Hz--8 kHz) electric field changes were measured for each of the 2467 cloud-to-ground lightning (CGs) detected by the Brazilian Integrated Lightning Network (BIN) at distances of 75--600 km, and magnetic field changes (300 Hz--8 kHz) above the background noise were measured for about 35% (858) of these CGs. ELF pulses that occur 4--12 ms after the retarded time of the lightning sferic, which have been previously attributed to sprites, were found for 1.4% of 934 CGs examined with a strong bias towards +CGs (4.9% or 9/184) compared to -CGs (0.5% or 4/750). These results disagree with results from the Sprites99 Balloon Campaign [Bering et al., 2004b], in which the lightning-driven electric and magnetic field changes were rare, while the CG delayed ELF pulses were frequent. The Brazil Campaign results thus suggest that mesospheric currents are likely the result of the QSF driven by large charge moment strokes, which are usually +CG strokes, initiating breakdown in the middle atmosphere.

Dynamic Chemically Driven Dewetting, Spreading, and Self-Running of Sessile Droplets on Crystalline Silicon.

PubMed

Arscott, Steve

2016-12-06

A chemically driven dewetting effect is demonstrated using sessile droplets of dilute hydrofluoric acid on chemically oxidized silicon wafers. The dewetting occurs as the thin oxide is slowly etched by the droplet and replaced by a hydrogen-terminated surface; the result of this is a gradual increase in the contact angle of the droplet with time. The time-varying work of adhesion is calculated from the time-varying contact angle; this corresponds to the changing chemical nature of the surface during dewetting and can be modeled by the well-known logistic (sigmoid) function often used for the modeling of restricted growth, in this case, the transition from an oxidized surface to a hydrogen-terminated silicon surface. The observation of the time-varying contact angle allows one to both measure the etch rate of the silicon oxide and estimate the hydrogenation rate as a function of HF concentration and wafer type. In addition to this, at a certain HF concentration, a self-running droplet effect is observed. In contrast, on hydrogen-terminated silicon wafers, a chemically induced spreading effect is observed using sessile droplets of nitric acid. The droplet spreading can also be modeled using a logistical function, where the restricted growth is the transition from hydrogen-terminated to a chemically induced oxidized silicon surface. The chemically driven dewetting and spreading observed here add to the methods available to study dynamic wetting (e.g., the moving three-phase contact line) of sessile droplets on surfaces. By slowing down chemical kinetics of the wetting, one is able to record the changing profile of the sessile droplet with time and gather information concerning the time-varying surface chemistry. The data also indicates a chemical interface hysteresis (CIH) that is compared to contact angle hysteresis (CAH). The approach can also be used to study the chemical etching and deposition behavior of thin films using liquids by monitoring the macroscopic droplet profile and relating this to the time-varying physical and chemical interface phenomena.

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations.

PubMed

Feeley, Kenneth J; Hurtado, Johanna; Saatchi, Sassan; Silman, Miles R; Clark, David B

2013-11-01

Species are predicted to shift their distributions upslope or poleward in response to global warming. This prediction is supported by a growing number of studies documenting species migrations in temperate systems but remains poorly tested for tropical species, and especially for tropical plant species. We analyzed changes in tree species composition in a network of 10 annually censused 1-ha plots spanning an altitudinal gradient of 70-2800 m elevation in Costa Rica. Specifically, we combined plot data with herbarium records (accessed through GBIF) to test if the plots' community temperature scores (CTS, average thermal mean of constituent species weighted by basal area) have increased over the past decade as is predicted by climate-driven species migrations. In addition, we quantified the contributions of stem growth, recruitment, and mortality to the observed patterns. Supporting our a priori hypothesis of upward species migrations, we found that there have been consistent directional shifts in the composition of the plots, such that the relative abundance of lowland species, and hence CTS, increased in 90% of plots. The rate of the observed compositional shifts corresponds to a mean thermal migration rate (TMR) of 0.0065 °C yr(-1) (95% CI = 0.0005-0.0132 °C yr(-1) ). While the overall TMR is slower than predicted based on concurrent regional warming of 0.0167 °C yr(-1) , migrations were on pace with warming in 4 of the 10 plots. The observed shifts in composition were driven primarily by mortality events (i.e., the disproportionate death of highland vs. lowland species), suggesting that individuals of many tropical tree species will not be able to tolerate future warming and thus their persistence in the face of climate change will depend on successful migrations. Unfortunately, in Costa Rica and elsewhere, land area inevitably decreases at higher elevations; hence, even species that are able to migrate successfully will face heightened risks of extinction. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Facilitation drives 65 years of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.; Briggs, John M.

2010-01-01

Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover had additional facilitative effects on juvenile recruitment, which was indirectly driven by effects of density and precipitation on cover. Mortality was strongly influenced by competition as indicated by negative density-dependence, whereas precipitation had no effect. The combined direct, indirect, and interactive facilitative effects of precipitation and cover on recruitment were substantial, as was the effect of competition on mortality, providing strong evidence for dual control of community dynamics by climate and biotic interactions. Through an empirically derived simulation model, we also found that the positive feedback of density on cover produces unique temporal abundance patterns, buffering changes in abundance from high frequency variation in precipitation, amplifying effects of low frequency variation, and decoupling community abundance from precipitation patterns at high abundance. Such dynamics should be generally applicable to low-productivity systems in which facilitation is important and can only be understood within the context of long-term variation in climatic patterns. This predictive model can be applied to better manage low-productivity ecosystems, in which variation in biogeochemical processes and trophic dynamics may be driven by positive density-dependent feedbacks that influence temporal abundance and productivity patterns.

Comparison of teen driver fatality rates by vehicle type in the United States.

PubMed

Trowbridge, Matthew J; McKay, Mary Pat; Maio, Ronald F

2007-10-01

To compare national fatality rates for teen drivers by vehicle type. Fatality rates were calculated for 16- to 19-year-old drivers by vehicle type using data from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System (1999-2003) and estimates of miles driven from the National Household Transportation Survey (2001). Relative fatality risks for teen drivers of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups were calculated using passenger cars as a reference. Per vehicle mile driven, the fatality risk for both male and female teens driving SUVs was decreased relative to passenger car drivers (male teens: relative risk [RR], 0.33 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.29 to 0.37]; female teens: RR, 0.45 [95% CI = 0.34 to 0.59]). Fatality rates for male teens driving pickups were also lower per mile driven compared with male passenger car drivers (RR, 0.55 [95% CI = 0.51 to 0.60]). Fatality rates for female teens driving pickups and passenger cars were not statistically different but appear potentially higher for pickups (RR, 1.19 [95% CI = 0.98 to 1.44]). Both SUVs and pickups demonstrated significantly higher rates of fatal rollovers than passenger cars. Female adolescent drivers of SUVs and pickups were at particularly high risk for fatal rollovers per vehicle mile driven compared with passenger cars (SUV: RR, 1.88 [95% CI = 1.19 to 2.96]; pickup: RR, 3.42 [95% CI = 2.29 to 5.10]). Fatality rates for teen drivers vary significantly by vehicle type. From 1999 to 2003 in the United States, fatal rollovers were significantly more likely per mile driven for teen drivers of both SUVs and pickups compared with passenger cars. However, overall fatality rates (i.e., all crash types) for teen drivers of SUVs and male drivers of pickups were lower per mile driven than for teen drivers of passenger cars. The results of this ecological analysis cannot predict the individual-level fatality risk for teens driving different vehicle types. However, the significant variability in fatality rates among SUVs, pickups, and passenger cars seen at a population level suggests that vehicle choice should be further explored as a potentially modifiable risk factor in interventions to address teen driver safety.

Change in obsessive-compulsive symptoms mediates subsequent change in depressive symptoms during exposure and response prevention.

PubMed

Zandberg, Laurie J; Zang, Yinyin; McLean, Carmen P; Yeh, Rebecca; Simpson, Helen Blair; Foa, Edna B

2015-05-01

The current study examines the temporal relationship between changes in obsessive-compulsive symptoms and changes in depressive symptoms during exposure and response prevention (EX/RP) therapy for obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Participants were 40 adults (53% female) who received EX/RP in a randomized controlled trial comparing serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SRI) augmentation strategies. Participants completed clinician-administered assessments of OCD (Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale) and depressive symptoms (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale) every four weeks from baseline to 32-week follow-up. Lagged multilevel mediational analyses indicated that change in OCD symptoms accounted for 65% of subsequent change in depressive symptoms. In contrast, change in depressive symptoms only partially mediated subsequent change in OCD symptoms, accounting for 20% of the variance in outcome. These data indicate that reductions in co-morbid depressive symptoms during EX/RP for OCD are largely driven by reductions in obsessive-compulsive symptoms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal erosion of a permafrost coastline: Improving process-based models using time-lapse photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wobus, C.; Anderson, R.; Overeem, I.; Matell, N.; Clow, G.; Urban, F.

2011-01-01

Coastal erosion rates locally exceeding 30 m y-1 have been documented along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coastline, and a number of studies suggest that these erosion rates have accelerated as a result of climate change. However, a lack of direct observational evidence has limited our progress in quantifying the specific processes that connect climate change to coastal erosion rates in the Arctic. In particular, while longer ice-free periods are likely to lead to both warmer surface waters and longer fetch, the relative roles of thermal and mechanical (wave) erosion in driving coastal retreat have not been comprehensively quantified. We focus on a permafrost coastline in the northern National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A), where coastal erosion rates have averaged 10-15 m y-1 over two years of direct monitoring. We take advantage of these extraordinary rates of coastal erosion to observe and quantify coastal erosion directly via time-lapse photography in combination with meteorological observations. Our observations indicate that the erosion of these bluffs is largely thermally driven, but that surface winds play a crucial role in exposing the frozen bluffs to the radiatively warmed seawater that drives melting of interstitial ice. To first order, erosion in this setting can be modeled using formulations developed to describe iceberg deterioration in the open ocean. These simple models provide a conceptual framework for evaluating how climate-induced changes in thermal and wave energy might influence future erosion rates in this setting.

Clinical Opinion: "Doing Something" About the Cesarean Delivery Rate.

PubMed

Clark, S L; Garite, T J; Hamilton, E J; Belfort, M A; Hankins, G D

2018-05-04

There is a general consensus that the cesarean delivery rate in the U.S. is too high, and that practice patterns of obstetricians are largely to blame for this situation. In reality, the U.S. cesarean delivery rate is the result of 3 forces largely beyond the control of the practicing clinician: patient expectations and misconceptions regarding the safety of labor, the medical-legal system, and limitations in technology. Efforts to "do something" about the cesarean delivery rate by promulgating practice directives which are marginally evidence-based or influenced by social pressures are both ineffective and potentially harmful. We examine both the recent ACOG/SMFM Care Consensus Statement "Safe Prevention of Primary Cesarean Delivery" document and the various iterations of the ACOG guidelines for vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in this context. Adherence to arbitrary time limits for active phase or second stage arrest without incorporating other clinical factors into the decision making process is unwise. In a similar manner, ever-changing practice standards for vaginal birth after cesarean driven by factors other than changing data are unlikely to be effective in lowering the cesarean delivery rate. Whether too high or too low, the current U.S. cesarean delivery rate is the expected result of the unique demographic, geographic and social forces driving it and is unlikely to change significantly given the limitations of current technology to otherwise satisfy the demands of these forces. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carbon dynamics of forest in Washington, USA: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2012-01-01

During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for...

Non-Equlibrium Driven Dynamics of Continuous Attractors in Place Cell Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Weishun; Kim, Hyun Jin; Schwab, David; Murugan, Arvind

Attractors have found much use in neuroscience as a means of information processing and decision making. Examples include associative memory with point and continuous attractors, spatial navigation and planning using place cell networks, dynamic pattern recognition among others. The functional use of such attractors requires the action of spatially and temporally varying external driving signals and yet, most theoretical work on attractors has been in the limit of small or no drive. We take steps towards understanding the non-equilibrium driven dynamics of continuous attractors in place cell networks. We establish an `equivalence principle' that relates fluctuations under a time-dependent external force to equilibrium fluctuations in a `co-moving' frame with only static forces, much like in Newtonian physics. Consequently, we analytically derive a network's capacity to encode multiple attractors as a function of the driving signal size and rate of change.

Recurrence plots revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casdagli, M. C.

1997-09-01

We show that recurrence plots (RPs) give detailed characterizations of time series generated by dynamical systems driven by slowly varying external forces. For deterministic systems we show that RPs of the time series can be used to reconstruct the RP of the driving force if it varies sufficiently slowly. If the driving force is one-dimensional, its functional form can then be inferred up to an invertible coordinate transformation. The same results hold for stochastic systems if the RP of the time series is suitably averaged and transformed. These results are used to investigate the nonlinear prediction of time series generated by dynamical systems driven by slowly varying external forces. We also consider the problem of detecting a small change in the driving force, and propose a surrogate data technique for assessing statistical significance. Numerically simulated time series and a time series of respiration rates recorded from a subject with sleep apnea are used as illustrative examples.

Kinetic instability of electrostatic ion cyclotron waves in inter-penetrating plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, M. F.; Ilie, R.; Murtaza, G.

2018-05-01

The Electrostatic Ion Cyclotron (EIC) instability that includes the effect of wave-particle interaction is studied owing to the free energy source through the flowing velocity of the inter-penetrating plasmas. It is shown that the origin of this current-less instability is different from the classical current driven EIC instability. The threshold conditions applicable to a wide range of plasma parameters and the estimate of the growth rate are determined as a function of the normalized flowing velocity ( u0/vt f e ), the temperature ( Tf/Ts ) and the density ratios ( nf 0/ns 0 ) of flowing component to static one. The EIC instability is driven by either flowing electrons or flowing ions, depending upon the different Doppler shifted frequency domains. It is found that the growth rate for electron-driven instability is higher than the ion-driven one. However, in both cases, the denser (hotter) is the flowing plasma, the lesser (greater) is the growth rate. The possible applications related to the terrestrial solar plasma environment are also discussed.

Atmospherically-driven collapse of a marine-based ice stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, S. L.; Clason, C. C.

2016-12-01

Marine-terminating glaciers and the sectors of ice sheets that are grounded below sea level are widely considered to be vulnerable to unstable retreat. The southern sector of the retreating Fennoscandian Ice Sheet comprised a large, aqueous-terminating ice sheet catchment grounded well below sea level throughout its deglaciation. However, the behaviour, timing of and controls upon ice sheet retreat through the Baltic and Bothnian basins have thus far been inferred only indirectly from peripheral, terrestrial-based geological archives. Recent acquisition of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry opens these basins up, for the first time, to direct investigation of their glacial footprint and palaeo-ice sheet behaviour. Multibeam data reveal a rich glacial landform legacy of the Bothnian Sea deglaciation. A late-stage palaeo-ice stream formed a narrow corridor of fast flow. Its pathway is overprinted by a vast field of basal crevasse squeeze ridges, while abundant traces of high subglacial meltwater volumes call for considerable input of surface meltwater to the subglacial system. We interpret a short-lived ice stream event under high extension, precipitating large-scale hydrofracture-driven collapse of the ice sheet sector under conditions of high surface melting. Experiments with a physically-based numerical flowline model indicate that the rate and pattern of Bothnian Sea ice stream retreat are most sensitive to surface mass balance change and crevasse propagation, while remarkably insensitive to submarine melting and sea level change. We interpret strongly atmospherically-driven retreat of this marine-based ice sheet sector.

Groundwater movement on a Low-lying Carbonate Atoll Island and its Response to Climatic and Sea-level Fluctuations: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberle, F. J.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Storlazzi, C. D.

2017-12-01

Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands. These islands are unique and on the frontline of negative societal impacts due to their geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources on atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island settlements, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. Here we present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data from a 16 month study to determine the role of an atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange including submarine groundwater discharge on the island of Roi-Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on similar islands that are expected to experience climate change-driven perturbations.

Body position and activity, but not heart rate, affect pump flows in patients with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices.

PubMed

Muthiah, Kavitha; Gupta, Sunil; Otton, James; Robson, Desiree; Walker, Robyn; Tay, Andre; Macdonald, Peter; Keogh, Anne; Kotlyar, Eugene; Granger, Emily; Dhital, Kumud; Spratt, Phillip; Jansz, Paul; Hayward, Christopher S

2014-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of pre-load and heart rate to pump flow in patients implanted with continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (cfLVADs). Although it is known that cfLVAD pump flow increases with exercise, it is unclear if this increment is driven by increased heart rate, augmented intrinsic ventricular contraction, or enhanced venous return. Two studies were performed in patients implanted with the HeartWare HVAD. In 11 patients, paced heart rate was increased to approximately 40 beats/min above baseline and then down to approximately 30 beats/min below baseline pacing rate (in pacemaker-dependent patients). Ten patients underwent tilt-table testing at 30°, 60°, and 80° passive head-up tilt for 3 min and then for a further 3 min after ankle flexion exercise. This regimen was repeated at 20° passive head-down tilt. Pump parameters, noninvasive hemodynamics, and 2-dimensional echocardiographic measures were recorded. Heart rate alteration by pacing did not affect LVAD flows or LV dimensions. LVAD pump flow decreased from baseline 4.9 ± 0.6 l/min to approximately 4.5 ± 0.5 l/min at each level of head-up tilt (p < 0.0001 analysis of variance). With active ankle flexion, LVAD flow returned to baseline. There was no significant change in flow with a 20° head-down tilt with or without ankle flexion exercise. There were no suction events. Centrifugal cfLVAD flows are not significantly affected by changes in heart rate, but they change significantly with body position and passive filling. Previously demonstrated exercise-induced changes in pump flows may be related to altered loading conditions, rather than changes in heart rate. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relationship between gamma frequency and running speed differs for slow and fast gamma rhythms in freely behaving rats

PubMed Central

Zheng, Chenguang; Bieri, Kevin Wood; Trettel, Sean Gregory; Colgin, Laura Lee

2015-01-01

In hippocampal area CA1 of rats, the frequency of gamma activity has been shown to increase with running speed (Ahmed and Mehta, 2012). This finding suggests that different gamma frequencies simply allow for different timings of transitions across cell assemblies at varying running speeds, rather than serving unique functions. However, accumulating evidence supports the conclusion that slow (~25–55 Hz) and fast (~60–100 Hz) gamma are distinct network states with different functions. If slow and fast gamma constitute distinct network states, then it is possible that slow and fast gamma frequencies are differentially affected by running speed. In this study, we tested this hypothesis and found that slow and fast gamma frequencies change differently as a function of running speed in hippocampal areas CA1 and CA3, and in the superficial layers of the medial entorhinal cortex (MEC). Fast gamma frequencies increased with increasing running speed in all three areas. Slow gamma frequencies changed significantly less across different speeds. Furthermore, at high running speeds, CA3 firing rates were low, and MEC firing rates were high, suggesting that CA1 transitions from CA3 inputs to MEC inputs as running speed increases. These results support the hypothesis that slow and fast gamma reflect functionally distinct states in the hippocampal network, with fast gamma driven by MEC at high running speeds and slow gamma driven by CA3 at low running speeds. PMID:25601003

Ice-Shelf Melt Response to Changing Winds and Glacier Dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Spence, Paul; Le Sommer, Julien; Gallée, Hubert; Durand, Gaël.

2017-12-01

It has been suggested that the coastal Southern Ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds, with potential adverse effects on West Antarctic glaciers. However, using a 1/12° ocean regional model that includes ice-shelf cavities, we find a more complex response to changing winds in the Amundsen Sea. Simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the SAM projected trend. The buoyancy-driven circulation induced by ice-shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf, leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m. In the vicinity of ice-shelf fronts, Ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds. This effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths (between 200 and 450 m), and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice-shelf cavities, which reinforces the buoyancy-driven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms. Then, prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100, the total melt rates simulated underneath Thwaites and Pine Island are multiplied by 2.5. Such increase is explained by a larger ocean/ice interface exposed to CDW, which is then amplified by a stronger melt-induced circulation along the ice draft. Our main conclusions are that (1) outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities (e.g., CMIP5 models) should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities; (2) coupled ocean/ice sheet models with a velocity-dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat.

Multiple Geographical Origins of Environmental Sex Determination enhanced the diversification of Darwin's Favourite Orchids.

PubMed

Pérez-Escobar, Oscar Alejandro; Chomicki, Guillaume; Condamine, Fabien L; de Vos, Jurriaan M; Martins, Aline C; Smidt, Eric C; Klitgård, Bente; Gerlach, Günter; Heinrichs, Jochen

2017-10-10

Environmental sex determination (ESD) - a change in sexual function during an individual life span driven by environmental cues - is an exceedingly rare sexual system among angiosperms. Because ESD can directly affect reproduction success, it could influence diversification rate as compared with lineages that have alternative reproductive systems. Here we test this hypothesis using a solid phylogenetic framework of Neotropical Catasetinae, the angiosperm lineage richest in taxa with ESD. We assess whether gains of ESD are associated with higher diversification rates compared to lineages with alternative systems while considering additional traits known to positively affect diversification rates in orchids. We found that ESD has evolved asynchronously three times during the last ~5 Myr. Lineages with ESD have consistently higher diversification rates than related lineages with other sexual systems. Habitat fragmentation due to mega-wetlands extinction, and climate instability are suggested as the driving forces for ESD evolution.

Analysis of the climate variability on Lake Nasser evaporation based on the Bowen ratio energy budget method.

PubMed

Elsawwaf, Mohamed; Willems, Patrick

2012-04-01

Variations in lake evaporation have a significant impact on the energy and water budgets of lakes. Understanding these variations and the role of climate is important for water resources management as well as predicting future changes in lake hydrology as a result of climate change. This study presents a comprehensive, 10-year analysis of seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual variations in lake evaporation for Lake Nasser in South Egypt. Meteorological and lake temperature measurements were collected from an instrumented platform (Raft floating weather station) at 2 km upstream ofthe Aswan High Dam. In addition to that, radiation measurements at three locations on the lake: Allaqi, Abusembel and Arqeen (respectively at 75, 280 and 350 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam) are used. The data were analyzed over 14-day periods from 1995 to 2004 to provide bi-weekly energy budget estimates of evaporation rate. The mean evaporation rate for lake Nasser over the study period was 5.88 mm day(-1), with a coefficient of variation of 63%. Considerable variability in evaporation rates was found on a wide range of timescales, with seasonal changes having the highest coefficient of variation (32%), followed by the intraseasonal (28%) and interannual timescales (11.6%; for summer means). Intraseasonal changes in evaporation were primarily associated with synoptic weather variations, with high evaporation events tending to occur during incursions of cold, dry air (due, in part, to the thermal lag between air and lake temperatures). Seasonal variations in evaporation were largely driven by temperature and net energy advection, but are out-of-phase with changes in wind speed. On interannual timescales, changes in summer evaporation rates were strongly associated with changes in net energy advection and showed only moderate connections to variations in temperature or humidity.

Rock Erodibility as a Dynamic Variable Driven by the Interplay between Erosion and Weathering in Bedrock Channels: Examples from Great Falls, Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, G. S.; Huettenmoser, J.; Shobe, C. M.; Eppes, M. C.

2016-12-01

Rock erodibility in channels is a primary control on the stresses required to erode bedrock (e.g., Sklar and Dietrich, 2001). Erodibility tends to be treated as a uniform and fixed variable at the scale of channel cross-sections, particularly in models of channel profile evolution. Here we present field data supporting the hypothesis (Hancock et al., 2011) that erodibility is a dynamic variable, driven by the interplay between erosion rate and weathering processes within cross-sections. We hypothesize that rock weathering varies in cross-sections from virtually unweathered in the thalweg, where frequent stripping removes weathered rock, to a degree of weathering determined by the frequency of erosive events higher on the channel margin. We test this hypothesis on three tributaries to the Potomac River underlain by similar bedrock but with varying erosion rates ( 0.01 to 0.8 m/ky). At multiple heights within three cross-sections on three tributaries, we measured compressive strength with a Schmidt hammer, surface roughness with a contour gage, and density and length of visible cracks. Compressive strength decreased with height in all nine cross-sections by 10% to 50%, and surface roughness increased with height in seven cross-sections by 25% - 45%, with the remaining two showing minimal change. Crack density increased with height in the three cross-sections measured. Taken together these data demonstrate increases in weathering intensity, and presumably, rock erodibility, with height. The y-intercept of the relation between height and the three measured variables were nearly identical, suggesting that thalweg erodibility was similar on each channel, as predicted, even though erodibility higher in the cross-section were markedly different. The rate at which the three variables changed with height in each cross-section is strongly related to stream power. Assuming stream power is a reasonable surrogate for erosion rate, this result implies that erosion rate can be a primary influence on the distribution of erodibility within channel cross-sections. We conclude that the interplay between rates of erosion and weathering produces spatial as well as temporal variability in erodibility which, in turn, influences channel form and gradient.

Biogenic volatile organic compounds in the Earth system.

PubMed

Laothawornkitkul, Jullada; Taylor, Jane E; Paul, Nigel D; Hewitt, C Nicholas

2009-01-01

Biogenic volatile organic compounds produced by plants are involved in plant growth, development, reproduction and defence. They also function as communication media within plant communities, between plants and between plants and insects. Because of the high chemical reactivity of many of these compounds, coupled with their large mass emission rates from vegetation into the atmosphere, they have significant effects on the chemical composition and physical characteristics of the atmosphere. Hence, biogenic volatile organic compounds mediate the relationship between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Alteration of this relationship by anthropogenically driven changes to the environment, including global climate change, may perturb these interactions and may lead to adverse and hard-to-predict consequences for the Earth system.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2017-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2016-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Continuous ECS-indicated recording of the proton-motive charge flux in leaves.

PubMed

Klughammer, Christof; Siebke, Katharina; Schreiber, Ulrich

2013-11-01

Technical features and examples of application of a special emitter-detector module for highly sensitive measurements of the electrochromic pigment absorbance shift (ECS) via dual-wavelength (550-520 nm) transmittance changes (P515) are described. This device, which has been introduced as an accessory of the standard, commercially available Dual-PAM-100 measuring system, not only allows steady-state assessment of the proton motive force (pmf) and its partitioning into ΔpH and ΔΨ components, but also continuous recording of the overall charge flux driven by photosynthetic light reactions. The new approach employs a double-modulation technique to derive a continuous signal from the light/dark modulation amplitude of the P515 signal. This new, continuously measured signal primarily reflects the rate of proton efflux via the ATP synthase, which under quasi-stationary conditions corresponds to the overall rate of proton influx driven by coupled electron transport. Simultaneous measurements of charge flux and CO2 uptake as a function of light intensity indicated a close to linear relationship in the light-limited range. A linear relationship between these two signals was also found for different internal CO2 concentrations, except for very low CO2, where the rate of charge flux distinctly exceeded the rate of CO2 uptake. Parallel oscillations in CO2 uptake and charge flux were induced by high CO2 and O2. The new device may contribute to the elucidation of complex regulatory mechanisms in intact leaves.

Muscle-tendon mechanics explain unexpected effects of exoskeleton assistance on metabolic rate during walking.

PubMed

Jackson, Rachel W; Dembia, Christopher L; Delp, Scott L; Collins, Steven H

2017-06-01

The goal of this study was to gain insight into how ankle exoskeletons affect the behavior of the plantarflexor muscles during walking. Using data from previous experiments, we performed electromyography-driven simulations of musculoskeletal dynamics to explore how changes in exoskeleton assistance affected plantarflexor muscle-tendon mechanics, particularly for the soleus. We used a model of muscle energy consumption to estimate individual muscle metabolic rate. As average exoskeleton torque was increased, while no net exoskeleton work was provided, a reduction in tendon recoil led to an increase in positive mechanical work performed by the soleus muscle fibers. As net exoskeleton work was increased, both soleus muscle fiber force and positive mechanical work decreased. Trends in the sum of the metabolic rates of the simulated muscles correlated well with trends in experimentally observed whole-body metabolic rate ( R 2 =0.9), providing confidence in our model estimates. Our simulation results suggest that different exoskeleton behaviors can alter the functioning of the muscles and tendons acting at the assisted joint. Furthermore, our results support the idea that the series tendon helps reduce positive work done by the muscle fibers by storing and returning energy elastically. We expect the results from this study to promote the use of electromyography-driven simulations to gain insight into the operation of muscle-tendon units and to guide the design and control of assistive devices. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Cell and Particle Interactions and Aggregation During Electrophoretic Motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hua; Zeng, Shulin; Loewenberg, Michael; Todd, Paul; Davis, Robert H.

1996-01-01

The stability and pairwise aggregation rates of small spherical particles under the collective effects of buoyancy-driven motion and electrophoretic migration are analyzed. The particles are assumed to be non-Brownian, with thin double-layers and different zeta potentials. The particle aggregation rates may be enhanced or reduced, respectively, by parallel and antiparallel alignments of the buoyancy-driven and electrophoretic velocities. For antiparallel alignments, with the buoyancy-driven relative velocity exceeding the electrophoretic relative velocity between two widely-separated particles, there is a 'collision-forbidden region' in parameter space due to hydrodynamic interactions; thus, the suspension becomes stable against aggregation.

Volcano seismicity and ground deformation unveil the gravity-driven magma discharge dynamics of a volcanic eruption.

PubMed

Ripepe, Maurizio; Donne, Dario Delle; Genco, Riccardo; Maggio, Giuseppe; Pistolesi, Marco; Marchetti, Emanuele; Lacanna, Giorgio; Ulivieri, Giacomo; Poggi, Pasquale

2015-05-18

Effusive eruptions are explained as the mechanism by which volcanoes restore the equilibrium perturbed by magma rising in a chamber deep in the crust. Seismic, ground deformation and topographic measurements are compared with effusion rate during the 2007 Stromboli eruption, drawing an eruptive scenario that shifts our attention from the interior of the crust to the surface. The eruption is modelled as a gravity-driven drainage of magma stored in the volcanic edifice with a minor contribution of magma supplied at a steady rate from a deep reservoir. Here we show that the discharge rate can be predicted by the contraction of the volcano edifice and that the very-long-period seismicity migrates downwards, tracking the residual volume of magma in the shallow reservoir. Gravity-driven magma discharge dynamics explain the initially high discharge rates observed during eruptive crises and greatly influence our ability to predict the evolution of effusive eruptions.

A unified model for galactic discs: star formation, turbulence driving, and mass transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.; Burkhart, Blakesley; Forbes, John C.; Crocker, Roland M.

2018-06-01

We introduce a new model for the structure and evolution of the gas in galactic discs. In the model the gas is in vertical pressure and energy balance. Star formation feedback injects energy and momentum, and non-axisymmetric torques prevent the gas from becoming more than marginally gravitationally unstable. From these assumptions we derive the relationship between galaxies' bulk properties (gas surface density, stellar content, and rotation curve) and their star formation rates, gas velocity dispersions, and rates of radial inflow. We show that the turbulence in discs can be powered primarily by star formation feedback, radial transport, or a combination of the two. In contrast to models that omit either radial transport or star formation feedback, the predictions of this model yield excellent agreement with a wide range of observations, including the star formation law measured in both spatially resolved and unresolved data, the correlation between galaxies' star formation rates and velocity dispersions, and observed rates of radial inflow. The agreement holds across a wide range of galaxy mass and type, from local dwarfs to extreme starbursts to high-redshift discs. We apply the model to galaxies on the star-forming main sequence, and show that it predicts a transition from mostly gravity-driven turbulence at high redshift to star-formation-driven turbulence at low redshift. This transition and the changes in mass transport rates that it produces naturally explain why galaxy bulges tend to form at high redshift and discs at lower redshift, and why galaxies tend to quench inside-out.

PULSATION-TRIGGERED MASS LOSS FROM AGB STARS: THE 60 DAY CRITICAL PERIOD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, I.; Zijlstra, A. A., E-mail: iain.mcdonald-2@jb.man.ac.uk, E-mail: albert.zijlstra@manchester.ac.uk

2016-06-01

Low- and intermediate-mass stars eject much of their mass during the late, red giant branch (RGB) phase of evolution. The physics of their strong stellar winds is still poorly understood. In the standard model, stellar pulsations extend the atmosphere, allowing a wind to be driven through radiation pressure on condensing dust particles. Here, we investigate the onset of the wind, using nearby RGB stars drawn from the Hipparcos catalog. We find a sharp onset of dust production when the star first reaches a pulsation period of 60 days. This approximately coincides with the point where the star transitions to themore » first overtone pulsation mode. Models of the spectral energy distributions show stellar mass-loss rate suddenly increasing at this point, by a factor of ∼10 over the existing (chromospherically driven) wind. The dust emission is strongly correlated with both pulsation period and amplitude, indicating stellar pulsation is the main trigger for the strong mass loss, and determines the mass-loss rate. Dust emission does not strongly correlate with stellar luminosity, indicating radiation pressure on dust has little effect on the mass-loss rate. RGB stars do not normally appear to produce dust, whereas dust production by asymptotic giant branch stars appears commonplace, and is probably ubiquitous above the RGB-tip luminosity. We conclude that the strong wind begins with a step change in mass-loss rate and is triggered by stellar pulsations. A second rapid mass-loss-rate enhancement is suggested when the star transitions to the fundamental pulsation mode at a period of ∼300 days.« less

Nurse-driven, protocol-directed weaning from mechanical ventilation improves clinical outcomes and is well accepted by intensive care unit physicians.

PubMed

Danckers, Mauricio; Grosu, Horiana; Jean, Raymonde; Cruz, Raul B; Fidellaga, Amelita; Han, Qifa; Awerbuch, Elizabeth; Jadhav, Nagesh; Rose, Keith; Khouli, Hassan

2013-08-01

Ventilator weaning protocols can improve clinical outcomes, but their impact may vary depending on intensive care unit (ICU) structure, staffing, and acceptability by ICU physicians. This study was undertaken to examine their relationship. We prospectively examined outcomes of 102 mechanically ventilated patients for more than 24 hours and weaned using nurse-driven protocol-directed approach (nurse-driven group) in an intensivist-led ICU with low respiratory therapist staffing and compared them with a historic control of 100 patients who received conventional physician-driven weaning (physician-driven group). We administered a survey to assess ICU physicians' attitude. Median durations of mechanical ventilation (MV) in the nurse-driven and physician-driven groups were 2 and 4 days, respectively (P = .001). Median durations of ICU length of stay (LOS) in the nurse-driven and physician-driven groups were 5 and 7 days, respectively (P = .01). Time of extubation was 2 hours and 13 minutes earlier in the nurse-driven group (P < .001). There was no difference in hospital LOS, hospital mortality, rates of ventilator-associated pneumonia, or reintubation rates between the 2 groups. We identified 4 independent predictors of weaning duration: nurse-driven weaning, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, vasoactive medications use, and blood transfusion. Intensive care unit physicians viewed this protocol implementation positively (mean scores, 1.59-1.87 on a 5-point Likert scale). A protocol for liberation from MV driven by ICU nurses decreased the duration of MV and ICU LOS in mechanically ventilated patients for more than 24 hours without adverse effects and was well accepted by ICU physicians. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Charge Requirements for Proton Gradient-driven Translocation of Anthrax Toxin*

PubMed Central

Brown, Michael J.; Thoren, Katie L.; Krantz, Bryan A.

2011-01-01

Anthrax lethal toxin is used as a model system to study protein translocation. The toxin is composed of a translocase channel, called protective antigen (PA), and an enzyme, called lethal factor (LF). A proton gradient (ΔpH) can drive LF unfolding and translocation through PA channels; however, the mechanism of ΔpH-mediated force generation, substrate unfolding, and establishment of directionality are poorly understood. One recent hypothesis suggests that the ΔpH may act through changes in the protonation state of residues in the substrate. Here we report the charge requirements of LF's amino-terminal binding domain (LFN) using planar lipid bilayer electrophysiology. We found that acidic residues are required in LFN to utilize a proton gradient for translocation. Constructs lacking negative charges in the unstructured presequence of LFN translocate independently of the ΔpH driving force. Acidic residues markedly increase the rate of ΔpH-driven translocation, and the presequence is optimized in its natural acidic residue content for efficient ΔpH-driven unfolding and translocation. We discuss a ΔpH-driven charge state Brownian ratchet mechanism for translocation, where glutamic and aspartic acid residues in the substrate are the “molecular teeth” of the ratchet. Our Brownian ratchet model includes a mechanism for unfolding and a novel role for positive charges, which we propose chaperone negative charges through the PA channel during ΔpH translocation. PMID:21507946

Moisture drives surface decomposition in thawing tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Vogel, Jason G.; Natali, Susan M.

2013-07-01

Permafrost thaw can affect decomposition rates by changing environmental conditions and litter quality. As permafrost thaws, soils warm and thermokarst (ground subsidence) features form, causing some areas to become wetter while other areas become drier. We used a common substrate to measure how permafrost thaw affects decomposition rates in the surface soil in a natural permafrost thaw gradient and a warming experiment in Healy, Alaska. Permafrost thaw also changes plant community composition. We decomposed 12 plant litters in a common garden to test how changing plant litter inputs would affect decomposition. We combined species' tissue-specific decomposition rates with species and tissue-level estimates of aboveground net primary productivity to calculate community-weighted decomposition constants at both the thaw gradient and warming experiment. Moisture, specifically growing season precipitation and water table depth, was the most significant driver of decomposition. At the gradient, an increase in growing season precipitation from 200 to 300 mm increased mass loss of the common substrate by 100%. At the warming experiment, a decrease in the depth to the water table from 30 to 15 cm increased mass loss by 100%. At the gradient, community-weighted decomposition was 21% faster in extensive than in minimal thaw, but was similar when moss production was included. Overall, the effect of climate change and permafrost thaw on surface soil decomposition are driven more by precipitation and soil environment than by changes to plant communities. Increasing soil moisture is thereby another mechanism by which permafrost thaw can become a positive feedback to climate change.

Baleen boom and bust: a synthesis of mysticete phylogeny, diversity and disparity

PubMed Central

Marx, Felix G.; Fordyce, R. Ewan

2015-01-01

A new, fully dated total-evidence phylogeny of baleen whales (Mysticeti) shows that evolutionary phases correlate strongly with Caenozoic modernization of the oceans and climates, implying a major role for bottom-up physical drivers. The phylogeny of 90 modern and dated fossil species suggests three major phases in baleen whale history: an early adaptive radiation (36–30 Ma), a shift towards bulk filter-feeding (30–23 Ma) and a climate-driven diversity loss around 3 Ma. Evolutionary rates and disparity were high following the origin of mysticetes around 38 Ma, coincident with global cooling, abrupt Southern Ocean eutrophication and the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Subsequently, evolutionary rates and disparity fell, becoming nearly constant after approximately 23 Ma as the ACC reached its full strength. By contrast, species diversity rose until 15 Ma and then remained stable, before dropping sharply with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This decline coincided with the final establishment of modern mysticete gigantism and may be linked to glacially driven variability in the distribution of shallow habitats or an increased need for long-distance migration related to iron-mediated changes in glacial marine productivity. PMID:26064636

Baleen boom and bust: a synthesis of mysticete phylogeny, diversity and disparity.

PubMed

Marx, Felix G; Fordyce, R Ewan

2015-04-01

A new, fully dated total-evidence phylogeny of baleen whales (Mysticeti) shows that evolutionary phases correlate strongly with Caenozoic modernization of the oceans and climates, implying a major role for bottom-up physical drivers. The phylogeny of 90 modern and dated fossil species suggests three major phases in baleen whale history: an early adaptive radiation (36-30 Ma), a shift towards bulk filter-feeding (30-23 Ma) and a climate-driven diversity loss around 3 Ma. Evolutionary rates and disparity were high following the origin of mysticetes around 38 Ma, coincident with global cooling, abrupt Southern Ocean eutrophication and the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Subsequently, evolutionary rates and disparity fell, becoming nearly constant after approximately 23 Ma as the ACC reached its full strength. By contrast, species diversity rose until 15 Ma and then remained stable, before dropping sharply with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This decline coincided with the final establishment of modern mysticete gigantism and may be linked to glacially driven variability in the distribution of shallow habitats or an increased need for long-distance migration related to iron-mediated changes in glacial marine productivity.

In the Eye of the Beholder: Owner Preferences for Variations in Cats' Appearances with Specific Focus on Skull Morphology.

PubMed

Farnworth, Mark J; Packer, Rowena M A; Sordo, Lorena; Chen, Ruoning; Caney, Sarah M A; Gunn-Moore, Danièlle A

2018-02-20

Changes in the popularity of cat breeds are largely driven by human perceptions of, and selection for, phenotypic traits including skull morphology. The popularity of breeds with altered skull shapes appears to be increasing, and owner preferences are an important part of this dynamic. This study sought to establish how and why a range of phenotypic attributes, including skull shape, affect preferences shown by cat owners. Two questionnaires were distributed on-line to cat owners who were asked to rate preferences for pictures of cats on a 0-10 scale. Veterinarian consensus established the skull types of the cats pictured (i.e., level of brachycephaly (BC) or dolichocephaly (DC)). Preferences were then explored relative to cat skull type, coat and eye color, and coat length. Generalized estimating equations identified relationships between physical characteristics and respondent ratings. Further sub-analyses explored effects of respondents' occupation, location and previous cat ownership on rating scores. Overall, cats with extreme changes in skull morphology (both BC and DC) were significantly less preferred than mesocephalic cats. Green eyes, ginger coat color and medium length coat were most preferred. Current owners of a BC or DC pure bred cat showed significantly greater preference for cats with similar features and significantly lower preference for the opposite extreme. Respondents from Asia were significantly more likely to prefer both BC and DC cats as compared to respondents from other locations. Finally, those in an animal care profession, as compared to other professions, provided a significantly lower preference rating for BC cats but not for DC cats. This work, despite the acknowledged limitations, provides preliminary evidence that preferences for cat breeds, and their associated skull morphologies, are driven by both cultural and experiential parameters. This information may allow for better targeting of educational materials concerning cat breeds.

Preliminary research on flow rate and free surface of the accelerator driven subcritical system gravity-driven dense granular-flow target

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaodong; Wan, Jiangfeng; Zhang, Sheng; Lin, Ping; Zhang, Yanshi; Yang, Guanghui; Wang, Mengke; Duan, Wenshan; Sun, Jian’an

2017-01-01

A spallation target is one of the three core parts of the accelerator driven subcritical system (ADS), which has already been investigated for decades. Recently, a gravity-driven Dense Granular-flow Target (DGT) is proposed, which consists of a cylindrical hopper and an internal coaxial cylindrical beam pipe. The research on the flow rate and free surface are important for the design of the target whether in Heavy Liquid Metal (HLM) targets or the DGT. In this paper, the relations of flow rate and the geometry of the DGT are investigated. Simulations based on the discrete element method (DEM) implementing on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and experiments are both performed. It is found that the existence of an internal pipe doesn’t influence the flow rate when the distance from the bottom of the pipe to orifice is large enough even in a larger system. Meanwhile, snapshots of the free surface formed just below the beam pipe are given. It is observed that the free surface is stable over time. The entire research is meaningful for the design of DGT. PMID:29095910

Preliminary research on flow rate and free surface of the accelerator driven subcritical system gravity-driven dense granular-flow target.

PubMed

Li, Xiaodong; Wan, Jiangfeng; Zhang, Sheng; Lin, Ping; Zhang, Yanshi; Yang, Guanghui; Wang, Mengke; Duan, Wenshan; Sun, Jian'an; Yang, Lei

2017-01-01

A spallation target is one of the three core parts of the accelerator driven subcritical system (ADS), which has already been investigated for decades. Recently, a gravity-driven Dense Granular-flow Target (DGT) is proposed, which consists of a cylindrical hopper and an internal coaxial cylindrical beam pipe. The research on the flow rate and free surface are important for the design of the target whether in Heavy Liquid Metal (HLM) targets or the DGT. In this paper, the relations of flow rate and the geometry of the DGT are investigated. Simulations based on the discrete element method (DEM) implementing on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and experiments are both performed. It is found that the existence of an internal pipe doesn't influence the flow rate when the distance from the bottom of the pipe to orifice is large enough even in a larger system. Meanwhile, snapshots of the free surface formed just below the beam pipe are given. It is observed that the free surface is stable over time. The entire research is meaningful for the design of DGT.

Recent land-use/land-cover change in the Central California Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara S.

2013-01-01

Open access to Landsat satellite data has enabled annual analyses of modern land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for the Central California Valley ecoregion between 2005 and 2010. Our annual LULCC estimates capture landscape-level responses to water policy changes, climate, and economic instability. From 2005 to 2010, agriculture in the region fluctuated along with regulatory-driven changes in water allocation as well as persistent drought conditions. Grasslands and shrublands declined, while developed lands increased in former agricultural and grassland/shrublands. Development rates stagnated in 2007, coinciding with the onset of the historic foreclosure crisis in California and the global economic downturn. We utilized annual LULCC estimates to generate interval-based LULCC estimates (2000–2005 and 2005–2010) and extend existing 27 year interval-based land change monitoring through 2010. Resulting change data provides insights into the drivers of landscape change in the Central California Valley ecoregion and represents the first, continuous, 37 year mapping effort of its kind.

Contrasting impacts of local and non-local anthropogenic aerosols detected on 20th century monsoon precipitation over West Africa and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, G. C.; Polson, D.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are a key driver 4 of historical changes in Summer monsoon precipition in the Northern Hemisphere. Detection and attribution studies have shown that the reduction in Northern Hemisphere precipitation over the second half of the 20th century is driven by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Here we apply these same methods to investigate changes in the West African and South Asian monsoons and identify the source regions of the anthropogenic aerosols that drive the observed changes. Historical climate model simulations are used to derive fingerprints of aerosol forcing for different regions of the globe. Comparing model changes with observations show that the changes in West African monsoon preciptiation are driven by remote aerosol emissions from North America and Europe, while changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation are driven by local aerosol emissions.

A Minimalistic Resource Allocation Model to Explain Ubiquitous Increase in Protein Expression with Growth Rate

PubMed Central

Keren, Leeat; Segal, Eran; Milo, Ron

2016-01-01

Most proteins show changes in level across growth conditions. Many of these changes seem to be coordinated with the specific growth rate rather than the growth environment or the protein function. Although cellular growth rates, gene expression levels and gene regulation have been at the center of biological research for decades, there are only a few models giving a base line prediction of the dependence of the proteome fraction occupied by a gene with the specific growth rate. We present a simple model that predicts a widely coordinated increase in the fraction of many proteins out of the proteome, proportionally with the growth rate. The model reveals how passive redistribution of resources, due to active regulation of only a few proteins, can have proteome wide effects that are quantitatively predictable. Our model provides a potential explanation for why and how such a coordinated response of a large fraction of the proteome to the specific growth rate arises under different environmental conditions. The simplicity of our model can also be useful by serving as a baseline null hypothesis in the search for active regulation. We exemplify the usage of the model by analyzing the relationship between growth rate and proteome composition for the model microorganism E.coli as reflected in recent proteomics data sets spanning various growth conditions. We find that the fraction out of the proteome of a large number of proteins, and from different cellular processes, increases proportionally with the growth rate. Notably, ribosomal proteins, which have been previously reported to increase in fraction with growth rate, are only a small part of this group of proteins. We suggest that, although the fractions of many proteins change with the growth rate, such changes may be partially driven by a global effect, not necessarily requiring specific cellular control mechanisms. PMID:27073913

Dynamic linear models to explore time-varying suspended sediment-discharge rating curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Yellen, Brian; Steinschneider, Scott

2017-06-01

This study presents a new method to examine long-term dynamics in sediment yield using time-varying sediment-discharge rating curves. Dynamic linear models (DLMs) are introduced as a time series filter that can assess how the relationship between streamflow and sediment concentration or load changes over time in response to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances or long-term changes. The filter operates by updating parameter values using a recursive Bayesian design that responds to 1 day-ahead forecast errors while also accounting for observational noise. The estimated time series of rating curve parameters can then be used to diagnose multiscale (daily-decadal) variability in sediment yield after accounting for fluctuations in streamflow. The technique is applied in a case study examining changes in turbidity load, a proxy for sediment load, in the Esopus Creek watershed, part of the New York City drinking water supply system. The results show that turbidity load exhibits a complex array of variability across time scales. The DLM highlights flood event-driven positive hysteresis, where turbidity load remained elevated for months after large flood events, as a major component of dynamic behavior in the rating curve relationship. The DLM also produces more accurate 1 day-ahead loading forecasts compared to other static and time-varying rating curve methods. The results suggest that DLMs provide a useful tool for diagnosing changes in sediment-discharge relationships over time and may help identify variability in sediment concentrations and loads that can be used to inform dynamic water quality management.

Macro-economic conditions and infant health: a changing relationship for black and white infants in the United States.

PubMed

Orsini, Chiara; Avendano, Mauricio

2015-01-01

We study whether the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant health, infant mortality and maternal characteristics in the United States has changed over the years 1980-2004. We use microdata on births and deaths for years 1980-2004 and find that the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant mortality and birthweight changes over time and is stronger for blacks than whites. For years 1980-1989 increases in the state unemployment rate are associated with a decline in infant mortality among blacks, an effect driven by mortality from gestational development and birth weight, and complications of placenta while in utero. In contrast, state economic conditions are unrelated to black infant mortality in years 1990-2004 and white infant mortality in any period, although effects vary by cause of death. We explore potential mechanisms for our findings and, including mothers younger than 18 in the analysis, uncover evidence of age-related maternal selection in response to the business cycle. In particular, in years 1980-1989 an increase in the unemployment rate at the time of conception is associated with fewer babies born to young mothers. The magnitude and direction of the relationship between business cycles and infant mortality differs by race and period. Age-related selection into motherhood in response to the business cycle is a possible explanation for this changing relationship.

Macro-Economic Conditions and Infant Health: A Changing Relationship for Black and White Infants in the United States

PubMed Central

Orsini, Chiara; Avendano, Mauricio

2015-01-01

We study whether the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant health, infant mortality and maternal characteristics in the United States has changed over the years 1980-2004. We use microdata on births and deaths for years 1980-2004 and find that the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant mortality and birthweight changes over time and is stronger for blacks than whites. For years 1980-1989 increases in the state unemployment rate are associated with a decline in infant mortality among blacks, an effect driven by mortality from gestational development and birth weight, and complications of placenta while in utero. In contrast, state economic conditions are unrelated to black infant mortality in years 1990-2004 and white infant mortality in any period, although effects vary by cause of death. We explore potential mechanisms for our findings and, including mothers younger than 18 in the analysis, uncover evidence of age-related maternal selection in response to the business cycle. In particular, in years 1980-1989 an increase in the unemployment rate at the time of conception is associated with fewer babies born to young mothers. The magnitude and direction of the relationship between business cycles and infant mortality differs by race and period. Age-related selection into motherhood in response to the business cycle is a possible explanation for this changing relationship. PMID:25974070

Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Jeffery M.; Voss, Clifford I.

2013-01-01

Groundwater flow in cold regions containing permafrost accelerates climate-warming-driven thaw and changes thaw patterns. Simulation analyses of groundwater flow and heat transport with freeze/thaw in typical cold-regions terrain with nested flow indicate that early thaw rate is particularly enhanced by flow, the time when adverse environmental impacts of climate-warming-induced permafrost loss may be severest. For the slowest climate-warming rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), once significant groundwater flow begins, thick permafrost layers can vanish in several hundred years, but survive over 1,000 years where flow is minimal. Large-scale thaw depends mostly on the balance of heat advection and conduction in the supra-permafrost zone. Surface-water bodies underlain by open taliks allow slow sub-permafrost flow, with lesser influence on regional thaw. Advection dominance over conduction depends on permeability and topography. Groundwater flow around permafrost and flow through permafrost impact thaw differently; the latter enhances early thaw rate. Air-temperature seasonality also increases early thaw. Hydrogeologic heterogeneity and topography strongly affect thaw rates/patterns. Permafrost controls the groundwater/surface-water-geomorphology system; hence, prediction and mitigation of impacts of thaw on ecology, chemical exports and infrastructure require improved hydrogeology/permafrost characterization and understanding

Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Ainley, David G.; Ballard, Grant; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Dugger, Catherine; Emmerson, Loiuse M.; Fraser, William R.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Olmastroni, Silvia; Southwell, Colin J.; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Lynch, Heather J.

2017-01-01

Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.

Microfluidic diffusion diluter: bulging of PDMS microchannels under pressure-driven flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Matthew A.; Kumar, Saurabh; Beskok, Ali; Cremer, Paul S.

2003-05-01

The bulging of microfluidic systems during pressure-driven flow is potentially a major consideration for polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)-based devices. Microchannel cross-sectional areas can change drastically as a function of flow rate and downstream microchannel position. Such geometrical flexibility leads to difficulties in predicting convective/diffusive transport for these systems. We have previously introduced a non-dimensional parameter, kappa, for characterizing convection and diffusion behavior for pressure-driven flow in rigid all-glass systems. This paper describes a modification of that concept for application to non-rigid systems, which is accomplished by incorporating an experimental step to account for the bulging in PDMS/glass microsystems. Specifically, an experimental measurement of channel height by fluorescence microscopy is combined with the aforementioned theory to characterize convective/diffusive behavior at a single location in the device. This allowed the parameter kappa to be determined at that point and applied to predict fluid flow in the subsequent portion of the PDMS microsystem. This procedure was applied to a PDMS/glass microfluidic diffusion dilution (muDD) device designed for generating concentration gradients. Theoretically predicted and experimentally measured distributions of concentrations within the microsystem matched well.

Development of a plasma driven permeation experiment for TPE

DOE PAGES

Buchenauer, Dean; Kolasinski, Robert; Shimada, Masa; ...

2014-04-18

Experiments on retention of hydrogen isotopes (including tritium) at temperatures less than 800 ?C have been carried out in the Tritium Plasma Experiment (TPE) at Idaho National Laboratory [1,2]. To provide a direct measurement of plasma driven permeation in plasma facing materials at temperatures reaching 1000 ?C, a new TPE membrane holder has been built to hold test specimens (=1 mm in thickness) at high temperature while measuring tritium permeating through the membrane from the plasma facing side. This measurement is accomplished by employing a carrier gas that transports the permeating tritium from the backside of the membrane to ionmore » chambers giving a direct measurement of the plasma driven tritium permeation rate. Isolation of the membrane cooling and sweep gases from TPE’s vacuum chamber has been demonstrated by sealing tests performed up to 1000 ?C of a membrane holder design that provides easy change out of membrane specimens between tests. Simulations of the helium carrier gas which transports tritium to the ion chamber indicate a very small pressure drop (~700 Pa) with good flow uniformity (at 1000 sccm). Thermal transport simulations indicate that temperatures up to 1000 ?C are expected at the highest TPE fluxes.« less

Enhancement of Survival and Electricity Production in an Engineered Bacterium by Light-Driven Proton Pumping▿ †

PubMed Central

Johnson, Ethan T.; Baron, Daniel B.; Naranjo, Belén; Bond, Daniel R.; Schmidt-Dannert, Claudia; Gralnick, Jeffrey A.

2010-01-01

Microorganisms can use complex photosystems or light-dependent proton pumps to generate membrane potential and/or reduce electron carriers to support growth. The discovery that proteorhodopsin is a light-dependent proton pump that can be expressed readily in recombinant bacteria enables development of new strategies to probe microbial physiology and to engineer microbes with new light-driven properties. Here, we describe functional expression of proteorhodopsin and light-induced changes in membrane potential in the bacterium Shewanella oneidensis strain MR-1. We report that there were significant increases in electrical current generation during illumination of electrochemical chambers containing S. oneidensis expressing proteorhodopsin. We present evidence that an engineered strain is able to consume lactate at an increased rate when it is illuminated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that proteorhodopsin activity enhances lactate uptake by increasing the proton motive force. Our results demonstrate that there is coupling of a light-driven process to electricity generation in a nonphotosynthetic engineered bacterium. Expression of proteorhodopsin also preserved the viability of the bacterium under nutrient-limited conditions, providing evidence that fulfillment of basic energy needs of organisms may explain the widespread distribution of proteorhodopsin in marine environments. PMID:20453141

Enhancement of survival and electricity production in an engineered bacterium by light-driven proton pumping.

PubMed

Johnson, Ethan T; Baron, Daniel B; Naranjo, Belén; Bond, Daniel R; Schmidt-Dannert, Claudia; Gralnick, Jeffrey A

2010-07-01

Microorganisms can use complex photosystems or light-dependent proton pumps to generate membrane potential and/or reduce electron carriers to support growth. The discovery that proteorhodopsin is a light-dependent proton pump that can be expressed readily in recombinant bacteria enables development of new strategies to probe microbial physiology and to engineer microbes with new light-driven properties. Here, we describe functional expression of proteorhodopsin and light-induced changes in membrane potential in the bacterium Shewanella oneidensis strain MR-1. We report that there were significant increases in electrical current generation during illumination of electrochemical chambers containing S. oneidensis expressing proteorhodopsin. We present evidence that an engineered strain is able to consume lactate at an increased rate when it is illuminated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that proteorhodopsin activity enhances lactate uptake by increasing the proton motive force. Our results demonstrate that there is coupling of a light-driven process to electricity generation in a nonphotosynthetic engineered bacterium. Expression of proteorhodopsin also preserved the viability of the bacterium under nutrient-limited conditions, providing evidence that fulfillment of basic energy needs of organisms may explain the widespread distribution of proteorhodopsin in marine environments.

Dye-Enhanced Self-Electrophoretic Propulsion of Light-Driven TiO2-Au Janus Micromotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yefei; Dong, Renfeng; Zhang, Qilu; Ren, Biye

2017-07-01

Light-driven synthetic micro-/nanomotors have attracted considerable attention in recent years due to their unique performances and potential applications. We herein demonstrate the dye-enhanced self-electrophoretic propulsion of light-driven TiO2-Au Janus micromotors in aqueous dye solutions. Compared to the velocities of these micromotors in pure water, 1.7, 1.5, and 1.4 times accelerated motions were observed for them in aqueous solutions of methyl blue (10-5 g L-1), cresol red (10-4 g L-1), and methyl orange (10-4 g L-1), respectively. We determined that the micromotor speed changes depending on the type of dyes, due to variations in their photodegradation rates. In addition, following the deposition of a paramagnetic Ni layer between the Au and TiO2 layers, the micromotor can be precisely navigated under an external magnetic field. Such magnetic micromotors not only facilitate the recycling of micromotors, but also allow reusability in the context of dye detection and degradation. In general, such photocatalytic micro-/nanomotors provide considerable potential for the rapid detection and "on-the-fly" degradation of dye pollutants in aqueous environments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaezi, P.; Holland, C.; Thakur, S. C.

The Controlled Shear Decorrelation Experiment (CSDX) linear plasma device provides a unique platform for investigating the underlying physics of self-regulating drift-wave turbulence/zonal flow dynamics. A minimal model of 3D drift-reduced nonlocal cold ion fluid equations which evolves density, vorticity, and electron temperature fluctuations, with proper sheath boundary conditions, is used to simulate dynamics of the turbulence in CSDX and its response to changes in parallel boundary conditions. These simulations are then carried out using the BOUndary Turbulence (BOUT++) framework and use equilibrium electron density and temperature profiles taken from experimental measurements. The results show that density gradient-driven drift-waves are themore » dominant instability in CSDX. However, the choice of insulating or conducting endplate boundary conditions affects the linear growth rates and energy balance of the system due to the absence or addition of Kelvin-Helmholtz modes generated by the sheath-driven equilibrium E × B shear and sheath-driven temperature gradient instability. Moreover, nonlinear simulation results show that the boundary conditions impact the turbulence structure and zonal flow formation, resulting in less broadband (more quasi-coherent) turbulence and weaker zonal flow in conducting boundary condition case. These results are qualitatively consistent with earlier experimental observations.« less

Both temperature fluctuations and East Asian monsoons have driven plant diversification in the karst ecosystems from southern China.

PubMed

Kong, Hanghui; Condamine, Fabien L; Harris, A J; Chen, Junlin; Pan, Bo; Möller, Michael; Hoang, Van Sam; Kang, Ming

2017-11-01

Karst ecosystems in southern China are species-rich and have high levels of endemism, yet little is known regarding the evolutionary processes responsible for the origin and diversification of karst biodiversity. The genus Primulina (Gesneriaceae) comprises ca. 170 species endemic to southern China with high levels of ecological (edaphic) specialization, providing an exceptional model to study the plant diversification in karsts. We used molecular data from nine chloroplast and 11 nuclear regions and macroevolutionary analyses to assess the origin and cause of species diversification due to palaeoenvironmental changes and edaphic specialization in Primulina. We found that speciation was positively associated with changes in past temperatures and East Asian monsoons through the evolutionary history of Primulina. Climatic change around the mid-Miocene triggered an early burst followed by a slowdown of diversification rate towards the present with the climate cooling. We detected different speciation rates among edaphic types, and transitions among soil types were infrequently and did not impact the overall speciation rate. Our findings suggest that both global temperature changes and East Asian monsoons have played crucial roles in floristic diversification within the karst ecosystems in southern China, such that speciation was higher when climate was warmer and wetter. This is the first study to directly demonstrate that past monsoon activity is positively correlated with speciation rate in East Asia. This case study could motivate further investigations to assess the impacts of past environmental changes on the origin and diversification of biodiversity in global karst ecosystems, most of which are under threat. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cellular mechanisms underlying behavioral state-dependent bidirectional modulation of motor cortex output.

PubMed

Schiemann, Julia; Puggioni, Paolo; Dacre, Joshua; Pelko, Miha; Domanski, Aleksander; van Rossum, Mark C W; Duguid, Ian

2015-05-26

Neuronal activity in primary motor cortex (M1) correlates with behavioral state, but the cellular mechanisms underpinning behavioral state-dependent modulation of M1 output remain largely unresolved. Here, we performed in vivo patch-clamp recordings from layer 5B (L5B) pyramidal neurons in awake mice during quiet wakefulness and self-paced, voluntary movement. We show that L5B output neurons display bidirectional (i.e., enhanced or suppressed) firing rate changes during movement, mediated via two opposing subthreshold mechanisms: (1) a global decrease in membrane potential variability that reduced L5B firing rates (L5Bsuppressed neurons), and (2) a coincident noradrenaline-mediated increase in excitatory drive to a subpopulation of L5B neurons (L5Benhanced neurons) that elevated firing rates. Blocking noradrenergic receptors in forelimb M1 abolished the bidirectional modulation of M1 output during movement and selectively impaired contralateral forelimb motor coordination. Together, our results provide a mechanism for how noradrenergic neuromodulation and network-driven input changes bidirectionally modulate M1 output during motor behavior. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ethanol production improvement driven by genome-scale metabolic modeling and sensitivity analysis in Scheffersomyces stipitis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The yeast Scheffersomyces stipitis naturally produces ethanol from xylose, however reaching high ethanol yields is strongly dependent on aeration conditions. It has been reported that changes in the availability of NAD(H/+) cofactors can improve fermentation in some microorganisms. In this work genome-scale metabolic modeling and phenotypic phase plane analysis were used to characterize metabolic response on a range of uptake rates. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the effect of ARC on ethanol production indicating that modifying ARC by inhibiting the respiratory chain ethanol production can be improved. It was shown experimentally in batch culture using Rotenone as an inhibitor of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase complex I (CINADH), increasing ethanol yield by 18%. Furthermore, trajectories for uptakes rates, specific productivity and specific growth rate were determined by modeling the batch culture, to calculate ARC associated to the addition of CINADH inhibitor. Results showed that the increment in ethanol production via respiratory inhibition is due to excess in ARC, which generates an increase in ethanol production. Thus ethanol production improvement could be predicted by a change in ARC. PMID:28658270

Ethanol production improvement driven by genome-scale metabolic modeling and sensitivity analysis in Scheffersomyces stipitis.

PubMed

Acevedo, Alejandro; Conejeros, Raúl; Aroca, Germán

2017-01-01

The yeast Scheffersomyces stipitis naturally produces ethanol from xylose, however reaching high ethanol yields is strongly dependent on aeration conditions. It has been reported that changes in the availability of NAD(H/+) cofactors can improve fermentation in some microorganisms. In this work genome-scale metabolic modeling and phenotypic phase plane analysis were used to characterize metabolic response on a range of uptake rates. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the effect of ARC on ethanol production indicating that modifying ARC by inhibiting the respiratory chain ethanol production can be improved. It was shown experimentally in batch culture using Rotenone as an inhibitor of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase complex I (CINADH), increasing ethanol yield by 18%. Furthermore, trajectories for uptakes rates, specific productivity and specific growth rate were determined by modeling the batch culture, to calculate ARC associated to the addition of CINADH inhibitor. Results showed that the increment in ethanol production via respiratory inhibition is due to excess in ARC, which generates an increase in ethanol production. Thus ethanol production improvement could be predicted by a change in ARC.

Effects of wastewater treatment plant effluent inputs on planktonic metabolic rates and microbial community composition in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaquer-Sunyer, Raquel; Reader, Heather E.; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Lindh, Markus V.; Pinhassi, Jarone; Conley, Daniel J.; Kritzberg, Emma S.

2016-08-01

The Baltic Sea is the world's largest area suffering from eutrophication-driven hypoxia. Low oxygen levels are threatening its biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The main causes for eutrophication-driven hypoxia are high nutrient loadings and global warming. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) contribute to eutrophication as they are important sources of nitrogen to coastal areas. Here, we evaluated the effects of wastewater treatment plant effluent inputs on Baltic Sea planktonic communities in four experiments. We tested for effects of effluent inputs on chlorophyll a content, bacterial community composition, and metabolic rates: gross primary production (GPP), net community production (NCP), community respiration (CR) and bacterial production (BP). Nitrogen-rich dissolved organic matter (DOM) inputs from effluents increased bacterial production and decreased primary production and community respiration. Nutrient amendments and seasonally variable environmental conditions lead to lower alpha-diversity and shifts in bacterial community composition (e.g. increased abundance of a few cyanobacterial populations in the summer experiment), concomitant with changes in metabolic rates. An increase in BP and decrease in CR could be caused by high lability of the DOM that can support secondary bacterial production, without an increase in respiration. Increases in bacterial production and simultaneous decreases of primary production lead to more carbon being consumed in the microbial loop, and may shift the ecosystem towards heterotrophy.

Ready, Set, Change! Development and usability testing of an online readiness for change decision support tool for healthcare organizations.

PubMed

Timmings, Caitlyn; Khan, Sobia; Moore, Julia E; Marquez, Christine; Pyka, Kasha; Straus, Sharon E

2016-02-24

To address challenges related to selecting a valid, reliable, and appropriate readiness assessment measure in practice, we developed an online decision support tool to aid frontline implementers in healthcare settings in this process. The focus of this paper is to describe a multi-step, end-user driven approach to developing this tool for use during the planning stages of implementation. A multi-phase, end-user driven approach was used to develop and test the usability of a readiness decision support tool. First, readiness assessment measures that are valid, reliable, and appropriate for healthcare settings were identified from a systematic review. Second, a mapping exercise was performed to categorize individual items of included measures according to key readiness constructs from an existing framework. Third, a modified Delphi process was used to collect stakeholder ratings of the included measures on domains of feasibility, relevance, and likelihood to recommend. Fourth, two versions of a decision support tool prototype were developed and evaluated for usability. Nine valid and reliable readiness assessment measures were included in the decision support tool. The mapping exercise revealed that of the nine measures, most measures (78 %) focused on assessing readiness for change at the organizational versus the individual level, and that four measures (44 %) represented all constructs of organizational readiness. During the modified Delphi process, stakeholders rated most measures as feasible and relevant for use in practice, and reported that they would be likely to recommend use of most measures. Using data from the mapping exercise and stakeholder panel, an algorithm was developed to link users to a measure based on characteristics of their organizational setting and their readiness for change assessment priorities. Usability testing yielded recommendations that were used to refine the Ready, Set, Change! decision support tool . Ready, Set, Change! decision support tool is an implementation support that is designed to facilitate the routine incorporation of a readiness assessment as an early step in implementation. Use of this tool in practice may offer time and resource-saving implications for implementation.

Changes in ocean circulation and carbon storage are decoupled from air-sea CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2011-02-01

The spatial distribution of the air-sea flux of carbon dioxide is a poor indicator of the underlying ocean circulation and of ocean carbon storage. The weak dependence on circulation arises because mixing-driven changes in solubility-driven and biologically-driven air-sea fluxes largely cancel out. This cancellation occurs because mixing driven increases in the poleward residual mean circulation result in more transport of both remineralized nutrients and heat from low to high latitudes. By contrast, increasing vertical mixing decreases the storage associated with both the biological and solubility pumps, as it decreases remineralized carbon storage in the deep ocean and warms the ocean as a whole.

Changes in ocean circulation and carbon storage are decoupled from air-sea CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marinov, I.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-11-01

The spatial distribution of the air-sea flux of carbon dioxide is a poor indicator of the underlying ocean circulation and of ocean carbon storage. The weak dependence on circulation arises because mixing-driven changes in solubility-driven and biologically-driven air-sea fluxes largely cancel out. This cancellation occurs because mixing driven increases in the poleward residual mean circulation results in more transport of both remineralized nutrients and heat from low to high latitudes. By contrast, increasing vertical mixing decreases the storage associated with both the biological and solubility pumps, as it decreases remineralized carbon storage in the deep ocean and warms the ocean as a whole.

Analyzing Vehicle Fuel Saving Opportunities through Intelligent Driver Feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonder, J.; Earleywine, M.; Sparks, W.

2012-06-01

Driving style changes, e.g., improving driver efficiency and motivating driver behavior changes, could deliver significant petroleum savings. This project examines eliminating stop-and-go driving and unnecessary idling, and also adjusting acceleration rates and cruising speeds to ideal levels to quantify fuel savings. Such extreme adjustments can result in dramatic fuel savings of over 30%, but would in reality only be achievable through automated control of vehicles and traffic flow. In real-world driving, efficient driving behaviors could reduce fuel use by 20% on aggressively driven cycles and by 5-10% on more moderately driven trips. A literature survey was conducted of driver behaviormore » influences, and pertinent factors from on-road experiments with different driving styles were observed. This effort highlighted important driver influences such as surrounding vehicle behavior, anxiety over trying to get somewhere quickly, and the power/torque available from the vehicle. Existing feedback approaches often deliver efficiency information and instruction. Three recommendations for maximizing fuel savings from potential drive cycle improvement are: (1) leveraging applications with enhanced incentives, (2) using an approach that is easy and widely deployable to motivate drivers, and (3) utilizing connected vehicle and automation technologies to achieve large and widespread efficiency improvements.« less

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.

PubMed

Todd, Andrew S; Manning, Andrew H; Verplanck, Philip L; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M; Dunham, Ryan

2012-09-04

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd, Andrew; Manning, Andrew H.; Verplanck, Philip L.; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M.; Dunham, Ryan

2012-01-01

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100–400% (400–2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO4 and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2–1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Sustaining Emotional Resilience for School Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steward, Julia

2014-01-01

Driven by the country's need to compete in a global economy, the UK government is imposing rapid and relentless educational change on schools. School leaders face the challenge of managing the impact of externally driven change and supporting others' resilience while frequently paying scant attention to their own. Six semi-structured interviews…

Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey pine barrens.

PubMed

Kretchun, Alec M; Scheller, Robert M; Lucash, Melissa S; Clark, Kenneth L; Hom, John; Van Tuyl, Steve

2014-01-01

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.

Predicted Effects of Gypsy Moth Defoliation and Climate Change on Forest Carbon Dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

PubMed Central

Kretchun, Alec M.; Scheller, Robert M.; Lucash, Melissa S.; Clark, Kenneth L.; Hom, John; Van Tuyl, Steve

2014-01-01

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years. PMID:25119162

Turn the temperature to turquoise: cues for colour change in the male chameleon grasshopper (Kosciuscola tristis) (Orthoptera: Acrididae).

PubMed

Umbers, Kate D L

2011-09-01

Rapid, reversible colour change is unusual in animals, but is a feature of male chameleon grasshoppers (Kosciuscola tristis). Understanding what triggers this colour change is paramount to developing hypotheses explaining its evolutionary significance. In a series of manipulative experiments the author quantified the effects of temperature, and time of day, as well as internal body temperature, on the colour of male K. tristis. The results suggest that male chameleon grasshoppers change colour primarily in response to temperature and that the rate of colour change varies considerably, with the change from black to turquoise occurring up to 10 times faster than the reverse. Body temperature changed quickly (within 10min) in response to changes in ambient temperature, but colour change did not match this speed and thus colour is decoupled from internal temperature. This indicates that male colour change is driven primarily by ambient temperature but that their colour does not necessarily reflect current internal temperature. I propose several functional hypotheses for male colour change in K. tristis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcinkowski, Paweł; Piniewski, Mikołaj

2018-04-01

Climate change and projected temperature increase is recognised to have significant impact on agricultural production and crop phenology. This study evaluated the climate change impact on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in the boundaries of two largest catchments in Poland - the Vistula and the Odra. For this purpose, an agro-hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool has been used, driven by climate forcing data provided within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain experiment projected to the year 2100 under two representative concentration pathways: 4.5 and 8.5. The projected warmer climate significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and harvest dates. The rate of acceleration was dependent on the time horizon and representative concentration pathways scenario. In general, the rate of sowing/harvest advance was accelerating in time and, also from representative concentration pathways 4.5 to 8.5, reaching 23 days for spring barley and 30 days for maize (ensemble mean for the far future under representative concentration pathways 8.5).

The Sensitivity of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in West Antarctica to Lateral Variations in Earth Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nield, G.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Blank, B.; van der Wal, W.; O'Donnell, J. P.; Stuart, G. W.; Lloyd, A. J.; Wiens, D.

2017-12-01

Accurate models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) are required for correcting satellite measurements of ice-mass change and for interpretation of geodetic data at the location of present and former ice sheets. Global models of GIA tend to adopt a 1-D representation of Earth structure, varying in the radial direction only. In some regions rheological parameters may differ significantly from this global average leading to bias in model predictions of present-day deformation, geoid change rates and sea-level change. The advancement of 3-D GIA modelling techniques in recent years has led to improvements in the representation of the Earth via the incorporation of laterally varying structure. This study investigates the influence of 3-D Earth structure on deformation rates in West Antarctica using a finite element GIA model with power-law rheology. We utilise datasets of seismic velocity and temperature for the crust and upper mantle with the aim of determining a data-driven Earth model, and consider the differences when compared to deformation predicted from an equivalent 1-D Earth structure.

Examination of the relationship between theory-driven policies and allowed lost-time back claims in workers' compensation: a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Wong, Jessica J; McGregor, Marion; Mior, Silvano A; Loisel, Patrick

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a model that evaluates the impact of policy changes on the number of workers' compensation lost-time back claims in Ontario, Canada, over a 30-year timeframe. The model was used to test the hypothesis that a theory- and policy-driven model would be sufficient in reproducing historical claims data in a robust manner and that policy changes would have a major impact on modeled data. The model was developed using system dynamics methods in the Vensim simulation program. The theoretical effects of policies for compensation benefit levels and experience rating fees were modeled. The model was built and validated using historical claims data from 1980 to 2009. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the modeled data at extreme end points of variable input and timeframes. The degree of predictive value of the modeled data was measured by the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Theil's inequality coefficients. Correlation between modeled data and actual data was found to be meaningful (R(2) = 0.934), and the modeled data were stable at extreme end points. Among the effects explored, policy changes were found to be relatively minor drivers of back claims data, accounting for a 13% improvement in error. Simulation results suggested that unemployment, number of no-lost-time claims, number of injuries per worker, and recovery rate from back injuries outside of claims management to be sensitive drivers of back claims data. A robust systems-based model was developed and tested for use in future policy research in Ontario's workers' compensation. The study findings suggest that certain areas within and outside the workers' compensation system need to be considered when evaluating and changing policies around back claims. © 2014. Published by National University of Health Sciences All rights reserved.

A System Approach to Navy Medical Education and Training. Appendix 24. Equipment Repair Technician.

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-08-31

DENTAL SYRINGE 40 lCORRECT MALFUNCTIONING RETRACTION MECHANISM ON DENTAL UNIT 41 1ADJUST DRIP RATE ON AIR-DRIVEN DENTAL HANDPIECE 42 ICLEAN VALVE... DENTAL UNIT 46 CLEAN/REPLACE WATER FILTER ELEMENTS ON DENTAL UNIT 47 ICLEAR WATER LINES ON CONTRA-ANGLE AIR-DRIVEN DENTAL HANDPIECE 48 IREPLACE WORN...GASKETS ON AIR-DRIVEN DENTAL HANDPIECE 49 IADJUST END PLAY ON DENTAL HANOPIECE so ICLEAN AND REASSEMBLE BELT-DRIVEN DENTAL HANDPIECE TURN

Decreased calcification in the Southern Ocean over the satellite record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, Natalie M.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.

2015-03-01

Widespread ocean acidification is occurring as the ocean absorbs anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, threatening marine ecosystems, particularly the calcifying plankton that provide the base of the marine food chain and play a key role within the global carbon cycle. We use satellite estimates of particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), surface chlorophyll, and sea surface temperature to provide a first estimate of changing calcification rates throughout the Southern Ocean. From 1998 to 2014 we observe a 4% basin-wide reduction in summer calcification, with ˜9% reductions in large regions (˜1 × 106 km2) of the Pacific and Indian sectors. Southern Ocean trends are spatially heterogeneous and primarily driven by changes in PIC concentration (suspended calcite), which has declined by ˜24% in these regions. The observed decline in Southern Ocean calcification and PIC is suggestive of large-scale changes in the carbon cycle and provides insight into organism vulnerability in a changing environment.

Identifying the mechanisms through which behavioral weight-loss treatment improves food decision-making in obesity.

PubMed

Demos, Kathryn E; McCaffery, Jeanne M; Thomas, J Graham; Mailloux, Kimberly A; Hare, Todd A; Wing, Rena R

2017-07-01

Behavioral weight loss (BWL) programs are the recommended treatment for obesity, yet it is unknown whether these programs change one's ability to use self-control in food choices and what specific mechanisms support such change. Using experimental economics methods, we investigated whether changes in dietary behavior in individuals with obesity following BWL are driven by one or more of the following potential mechanisms: changes in the perception of the 1) health or 2) taste of food items, and/or 3) shifting decision weights for health versus taste attributes. Therefore, we compared these mechanisms between obese participants and lifetime normal weight controls (NW) both before and after BWL. Females with obesity (N = 37, mean BMI = 33.2) completed a food choice task involving health ratings, taste ratings, and decision-making pre- and post-standard BWL intervention. NW controls (N = 30, BMI = 22.4) completed the same task. Individuals with obesity exhibited increased self-control (selecting healthier, less tasty food choices) post-treatment. However, their rates of self-control remained significantly lower than NW. We found no differences in initial health perceptions across groups, and no changes with treatment. In contrast, taste ratings and the relative value of taste versus health decreased following treatment. Although, post-treatment participants continued to perceive unhealthy foods as tastier and used less self-control than NW controls, they showed significant improvements in these domains following a BWL intervention. To help individuals improve dietary decisions, additional research is needed to determine how to make greater changes in taste preferences and/or the assignment of value to taste versus health attributes in food choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America.

PubMed

Davis, Mark A; Douglas, Marlis R; Webb, Colleen T; Collyer, Michael L; Holycross, Andrew T; Painter, Charles W; Kamees, Larry K; Douglas, Michael E

2015-01-01

Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., 'short range endemics,' SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07 km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female

Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America

PubMed Central

Davis, Mark A.; Douglas, Marlis R.; Webb, Colleen T.; Collyer, Michael L.; Holycross, Andrew T.; Painter, Charles W.; Kamees, Larry K.; Douglas, Michael E.

2015-01-01

Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., ‘short range endemics,’ SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle ( Caretta caretta )], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female

Basal melt rates of Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Nicholls, K. W.; Corr, H. F. J.; Steinhage, D.; Stewart, C.; Zeising, O.

2017-12-01

Thinning of ice shelves around Antarctica has been found to be partly driven by an increase in basal melt as a result of warmer waters entering the sub-ice shelf cavity. In-situ observations of basal melt rate are, however, sparse. A new robust and efficient phase sensitive radio echo sounder (pRES) allows to measure change in ice thickness and vertical strain at high accuracy, so that the contribution of basal melt to the change in thickness can be estimated. As modeling studies suggest that the cavity beneath Filchner Ice Shelf, Antarctica, might be prone to intrusion of warm water pulses within this century, we wished to derive a baseline dataset and an understanding of its present day spatial variability. Here we present results from pRES measurements over two field seasons, 2015/16-16/17, comprising 86 datasets over the southern Filchner Ice Shelf, covering an area of about 6500km2. The maximum melt rate is only slightly more than 1m/a, but the spatial distribution exhibits a complex pattern. For the purpose of testing variability of basal melt rates on small spatial scales, we performed 26 measurements over distances of about 1km, and show that the melt rates do not vary by more than 0.25m/a.

Changing Epidemiology of Serious Bacterial Infections in Febrile Infants without Localizing Signs

PubMed Central

Watt, Kevin; Waddle, Erica; Jhaveri, Ravi

2010-01-01

Objective Historically, management of infants with fever without localizing signs (FWLS) has generated much controversy, with attempts to risk stratify based on several criteria. Advances in medical practice may have altered the epidemiology of serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in this population. We conducted this study to test the hypothesis that the rate of SBIs in this patient population has changed over time. Patients and Methods We performed a retrospective review of all infants meeting FWLS criteria at our institution from 1997–2006. We examined all clinical and outcome data and performed statistical analysis of SBI rates and ampicillin resistance rates. Results 668 infants met criteria for FWLS. The overall rate of SBIs was 10.8%, with a significant increase from 2002–2006 (52/361, 14.4%) compared to 1997–2001 (20/307, 6.5%) (p = 0.001). This increase was driven by an increase in E. coli urinary tract infections (UTI), particularly in older infants (31–90 days). Conclusions We observed a significant increase in E. coli UTI among FWLS infants with high rates of ampicillin resistance. The reasons are likely to be multifactorial, but the results themselves emphasize the need to examine urine in all febrile infants <90days and consider local resistance patterns when choosing empiric antibiotics. PMID:20805983

Ecological and management implications of climate-driven changes in spatial and temporal distributions of marine species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, K.; Pershing, A. J.; Nye, J. A.; Henderson, M. E.; Thomas, A. C.; Hernandez, C.; Alexander, M. A.; Schuetz, J.; Allyn, A.

2016-02-01

Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Maine have warmed rapidly over the past decade, and the seasonal cycle of temperatures has shifted towards earlier warming in the spring and later cooling in the fall. Warming temperatures have been associated with northward shifts in spatial distributions of many marine fish and invertebrate species in the region. In addition, changing phenology—particularly of migratory species—is also being observed. The rates at which species distributions change in space and time vary by species, and these differential rates have important implications for trophic interactions and fisheries. In this presentation, we will identify groups of species on the Northeast Shelf based on whether their distribution responses to warming temperatures lead, lag, or track temperature signals. Life history and population characteristics provide a basis for understanding how species cluster in these groups. Differential rates of changes in spatial and temporal distributions affect trophic interactions. American lobster provides one example of a prey species that may be affected by changes in the spatial distribution and migration phenology of its predators. Changes in natural mortality on important commercial species may affect fisheries by altering stock dynamics and allowable catch levels, but fisheries will also be affected by the need to change their fishing locations, times, or target species. Some of these fishery responses are already being observed in the Northeast, but many are constrained by the management system. Our presentation will conclude by identifying some ways in which fisheries management adjustments might help address issues of stock sustainability and fishery access for species that are experiencing climate-related distribution shifts.

Accommodation Responds to Optical Vergence and Not Defocus Blur Alone.

PubMed

Del Águila-Carrasco, Antonio J; Marín-Franch, Iván; Bernal-Molina, Paula; Esteve-Taboada, José J; Kruger, Philip B; Montés-Micó, Robert; López-Gil, Norberto

2017-03-01

To determine whether changes in wavefront spherical curvature (optical vergence) are a directional cue for accommodation. Nine subjects participated in this experiment. The accommodation response to a monochromatic target was measured continuously with a custom-made adaptive optics system while astigmatism and higher-order aberrations were corrected in real time. There were two experimental open-loop conditions: vergence-driven condition, where the deformable mirror provided sinusoidal changes in defocus at the retina between -1 and +1 diopters (D) at 0.2 Hz; and blur-driven condition, in which the level of defocus at the retina was always 0 D, but a sinusoidal defocus blur between -1 and +1 D at 0.2 Hz was simulated in the target. Right before the beginning of each trial, the target was moved to an accommodative demand of 2 D. Eight out of nine subjects showed sinusoidal responses for the vergence-driven condition but not for the blur-driven condition. Their average (±SD) gain for the vergence-driven condition was 0.50 (±0.28). For the blur-driven condition, average gain was much smaller at 0.07 (±0.03). The ninth subject showed little to no response for both conditions, with average gain <0.08. Vergence-driven condition gain was significantly different from blur-driven condition gain (P = 0.004). Accommodation responds to optical vergence, even without feedback, and not to changes in defocus blur alone. These results suggest the presence of a retinal mechanism that provides a directional cue for accommodation from optical vergence.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity

PubMed Central

Nordbotten, Jan M.; Levin, Simon A.; Szathmáry, Eörs; Stenseth, Nils C.

2018-01-01

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: (i) ecologically driven change, (ii) evolutionarily driven change, and (iii) environmentally driven change. PMID:29311333

Photocatalytic water oxidation by a pyrochlore oxide upon irradiation with visible light: rhodium substitution into yttrium titanate.

PubMed

Kiss, Borbala; Didier, Christophe; Johnson, Timothy; Manning, Troy D; Dyer, Matthew S; Cowan, Alexander J; Claridge, John B; Darwent, James R; Rosseinsky, Matthew J

2014-12-22

A stable visible-light-driven photocatalyst (λ≥450 nm) for water oxidation is reported. Rhodium substitution into the pyrochlore Y2 Ti2 O7 is demonstrated by monitoring Vegard's law evolution of the unit-cell parameters with changing rhodium content, to a maximum content of 3 % dopant. Substitution renders the solid solutions visible-light active. The overall rate of oxygen evolution is comparable to WO3 but with superior light-harvesting and surface-area-normalized turnover rates, making Y2 Ti1.94 Rh0.06 O7 an excellent candidate for use in a Z-scheme water-splitting system. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A change in the geodynamics of continental growth 3 billion years ago.

PubMed

Dhuime, Bruno; Hawkesworth, Chris J; Cawood, Peter A; Storey, Craig D

2012-03-16

Models for the growth of continental crust rely on knowing the balance between the generation of new crust and the reworking of old crust throughout Earth's history. The oxygen isotopic composition of zircons, for which uranium-lead and hafnium isotopic data provide age constraints, is a key archive of crustal reworking. We identified systematic variations in hafnium and oxygen isotopes in zircons of different ages that reveal the relative proportions of reworked crust and of new crust through time. Growth of continental crust appears to have been a continuous process, albeit at variable rates. A marked decrease in the rate of crustal growth at ~3 billion years ago may be linked to the onset of subduction-driven plate tectonics.

Electric-field-driven electron-transfer in mixed-valence molecules.

PubMed

Blair, Enrique P; Corcelli, Steven A; Lent, Craig S

2016-07-07

Molecular quantum-dot cellular automata is a computing paradigm in which digital information is encoded by the charge configuration of a mixed-valence molecule. General-purpose computing can be achieved by arranging these compounds on a substrate and exploiting intermolecular Coulombic coupling. The operation of such a device relies on nonequilibrium electron transfer (ET), whereby the time-varying electric field of one molecule induces an ET event in a neighboring molecule. The magnitude of the electric fields can be quite large because of close spatial proximity, and the induced ET rate is a measure of the nonequilibrium response of the molecule. We calculate the electric-field-driven ET rate for a model mixed-valence compound. The mixed-valence molecule is regarded as a two-state electronic system coupled to a molecular vibrational mode, which is, in turn, coupled to a thermal environment. Both the electronic and vibrational degrees-of-freedom are treated quantum mechanically, and the dissipative vibrational-bath interaction is modeled with the Lindblad equation. This approach captures both tunneling and nonadiabatic dynamics. Relationships between microscopic molecular properties and the driven ET rate are explored for two time-dependent applied fields: an abruptly switched field and a linearly ramped field. In both cases, the driven ET rate is only weakly temperature dependent. When the model is applied using parameters appropriate to a specific mixed-valence molecule, diferrocenylacetylene, terahertz-range ET transfer rates are predicted.

On the number of Bose-selected modes in driven-dissipative ideal Bose gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnell, Alexander; Ketzmerick, Roland; Eckardt, André

2018-03-01

In an ideal Bose gas that is driven into a steady state far from thermal equilibrium, a generalized form of Bose condensation can occur. Namely, the single-particle states unambiguously separate into two groups: the group of Bose-selected states, whose occupations increase linearly with the total particle number, and the group of all other states whose occupations saturate [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 240405 (2013), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.240405]. However, so far very little is known about how the number of Bose-selected states depends on the properties of the system and its coupling to the environment. The answer to this question is crucial since systems hosting a single, a few, or an extensive number of Bose-selected states will show rather different behavior. While in the former two scenarios each selected mode acquires a macroscopic occupation, corresponding to (fragmented) Bose condensation, the latter case rather bears resemblance to a high-temperature state of matter. In this paper, we systematically investigate the number of Bose-selected states, considering different classes of the rate matrices that characterize the driven-dissipative ideal Bose gases in the limit of weak system-bath coupling. These include rate matrices with continuum limit, rate matrices of chaotic driven systems, random rate matrices, and rate matrices resulting from thermal baths that couple to a few observables only.

On the number of Bose-selected modes in driven-dissipative ideal Bose gases.

PubMed

Schnell, Alexander; Ketzmerick, Roland; Eckardt, André

2018-03-01

In an ideal Bose gas that is driven into a steady state far from thermal equilibrium, a generalized form of Bose condensation can occur. Namely, the single-particle states unambiguously separate into two groups: the group of Bose-selected states, whose occupations increase linearly with the total particle number, and the group of all other states whose occupations saturate [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 240405 (2013)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.111.240405]. However, so far very little is known about how the number of Bose-selected states depends on the properties of the system and its coupling to the environment. The answer to this question is crucial since systems hosting a single, a few, or an extensive number of Bose-selected states will show rather different behavior. While in the former two scenarios each selected mode acquires a macroscopic occupation, corresponding to (fragmented) Bose condensation, the latter case rather bears resemblance to a high-temperature state of matter. In this paper, we systematically investigate the number of Bose-selected states, considering different classes of the rate matrices that characterize the driven-dissipative ideal Bose gases in the limit of weak system-bath coupling. These include rate matrices with continuum limit, rate matrices of chaotic driven systems, random rate matrices, and rate matrices resulting from thermal baths that couple to a few observables only.

Wind-driven roof turbines: a novel way to improve ventilation for TB infection control in health facilities.

PubMed

Cox, Helen; Escombe, Rod; McDermid, Cheryl; Mtshemla, Yolanda; Spelman, Tim; Azevedo, Virginia; London, Leslie

2012-01-01

Tuberculosis transmission in healthcare facilities contributes significantly to the TB epidemic, particularly in high HIV settings. Although improving ventilation may reduce transmission, there is a lack of evidence to support low-cost practical interventions. We assessed the efficacy of wind-driven roof turbines to achieve recommended ventilation rates, compared to current recommended practices for natural ventilation (opening windows), in primary care clinic rooms in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Room ventilation was assessed (CO₂ gas tracer technique) in 4 rooms where roof turbines and air-intake grates were installed, across three scenarios: turbine, grate and window closed, only window open, and only turbine and grate open, with concurrent wind speed measurement. 332 measurements were conducted over 24 months. For all 4 rooms combined, median air changes per hour (ACH) increased with wind speed quartiles across all scenarios. Higher median ACH were recorded with open roof turbines and grates, compared to open windows across all wind speed quartiles. Ventilation with open turbine and grate exceeded WHO-recommended levels (60 Litres/second/patient) for 95% or more of measurements in 3 of the 4 rooms; 47% in the remaining room, where wind speeds were lower and a smaller diameter turbine was installed. High room ventilation rates, meeting recommended thresholds, may be achieved using wind-driven roof turbines and grates, even at low wind speeds. Roof turbines and air-intake grates are not easily closed by staff, allowing continued ventilation through colder periods. This simple, low-cost technology represents an important addition to our tools for TB infection control.

Wind-Driven Roof Turbines: A Novel Way to Improve Ventilation for TB Infection Control in Health Facilities

PubMed Central

Cox, Helen; Escombe, Rod; McDermid, Cheryl; Mtshemla, Yolanda; Spelman, Tim; Azevedo, Virginia; London, Leslie

2012-01-01

Objective Tuberculosis transmission in healthcare facilities contributes significantly to the TB epidemic, particularly in high HIV settings. Although improving ventilation may reduce transmission, there is a lack of evidence to support low-cost practical interventions. We assessed the efficacy of wind-driven roof turbines to achieve recommended ventilation rates, compared to current recommended practices for natural ventilation (opening windows), in primary care clinic rooms in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Methods Room ventilation was assessed (CO2 gas tracer technique) in 4 rooms where roof turbines and air-intake grates were installed, across three scenarios: turbine, grate and window closed, only window open, and only turbine and grate open, with concurrent wind speed measurement. 332 measurements were conducted over 24 months. Findings For all 4 rooms combined, median air changes per hour (ACH) increased with wind speed quartiles across all scenarios. Higher median ACH were recorded with open roof turbines and grates, compared to open windows across all wind speed quartiles. Ventilation with open turbine and grate exceeded WHO-recommended levels (60 Litres/second/patient) for 95% or more of measurements in 3 of the 4 rooms; 47% in the remaining room, where wind speeds were lower and a smaller diameter turbine was installed. Conclusion High room ventilation rates, meeting recommended thresholds, may be achieved using wind-driven roof turbines and grates, even at low wind speeds. Roof turbines and air-intake grates are not easily closed by staff, allowing continued ventilation through colder periods. This simple, low-cost technology represents an important addition to our tools for TB infection control. PMID:22253742

On the Importance of High Frequency Gravity Waves for Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric J.

2016-01-01

Recent investigations of the influence of atmospheric waves on ice nucleation in cirrus have identified a number of key processes and sensitivities: (1) ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing are strongly dependent on cooling rates, with gravity waves dominating upper tropospheric cooling rates; (2) rapid cooling driven by high-frequency waves are likely responsible for the rare occurrences of very high ice concentrations in cirrus; (3) sedimentation and entrainment tend to decrease ice concentrations as cirrus age; and (4) in some situations, changes in temperature tendency driven by high-frequency waves can quench ice nucleation events and limit ice concentrations. Here we use parcel-model simulations of ice nucleation driven by long-duration, constant-pressure balloon temperature time series, along with an extensive dataset of cold cirrus microphysical properties from the recent ATTREX high-altitude aircraft campaign, to statistically examine the importance of high-frequency waves as well as the consistency between our theoretical understanding of ice nucleation and observed ice concentrations. The parcel-model simulations indicate common occurrence of peak ice concentrations exceeding several hundred per liter. Sedimentation and entrainment would reduce ice concentrations as clouds age, but 1-D simulations using a wave parameterization (which underestimates rapid cooling events) still produce ice concentrations higher than indicated by observations. We find that quenching of nucleation events by high-frequency waves occurs infrequently and does not prevent occurrences of large ice concentrations in parcel simulations of homogeneous freezing. In fact, the high-frequency variability in the balloon temperature data is entirely responsible for production of these high ice concentrations in the simulations.

Shifts in community size structure drive temperature invariance of secondary production in a stream-warming experiment.

PubMed

Nelson, Daniel; Benstead, Jonathan P; Huryn, Alexander D; Cross, Wyatt F; Hood, James M; Johnson, Philip W; Junker, James R; Gíslason, Gísli M; Ólafsson, Jón S

2017-07-01

A central question at the interface of food-web and climate change research is how secondary production, or the formation of heterotroph biomass over time, will respond to rising temperatures. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) hypothesizes the temperature-invariance of secondary production, driven by matched and opposed forces that reduce biomass of heterotrophs while increasing their biomass turnover rate (production : biomass, or P:B) with warming. To test this prediction at the whole community level, we used a geothermal heat exchanger to experimentally warm a stream in southwest Iceland by 3.8°C for two years. We quantified invertebrate community biomass, production, and P : B in the experimental stream and a reference stream for one year prior to warming and two years during warming. As predicted, warming had a neutral effect on community production, but this result was not driven by opposing effects on community biomass and P:B. Instead, warming had a positive effect on both the biomass and production of larger-bodied, slower-growing taxa (e.g., larval black flies, dipteran predators, snails) and a negative effect on small-bodied taxa with relatively high growth rates (e.g., ostracods, larval chironomids). We attribute these divergent responses to differences in thermal preference between small- vs. large-bodied taxa. Although metabolic demand vs. resource supply must ultimately constrain community production, our results highlight the potential for idiosyncratic community responses to warming, driven by variation in thermal preference and body size within regional species pools. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Improving the compression dewatering of sewage sludge through bioacidification conditioning driven by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans: dewatering rate vs. dewatering extent.

PubMed

Lu, Yi; Zhang, Chunmei; Zheng, Guanyu; Zhou, Lixiang

2018-04-22

Prior to mechanical dewatering, sludge conditioning is indispensable to reduce the difficulty of sludge treatment and disposal. The effect of bioacidification conditioning driven by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans LX5 on the dewatering rate and extent of sewage sludge during compression dewatering process was investigated in this study. The results showed that the bioacidification of sludge driven by A. ferrooxidans LX5 simultaneously improved both the sludge dewatering rate and extent, which was not attained by physical/chemical conditioning approaches, including ultrasonication, microwave, freezing/thawing, or by adding the chemical conditioner cationic polyacrylamide (CPAM). During the bioacidification of sludge, the decrease in sludge pH induced the damage of sludge microbial cell structures, which enhanced the dewatering extent of sludge, and the added Fe 2+ and the subsequent bio-oxidized Fe 3+ effectively flocculated the damaged sludge flocs to improve the sludge dewatering rate. In the compression dewatering process consisting of filtration and expression stages, high removal of moisture and a short dewatering time were achieved during the filtration stage and the expression kinetics were also improved because of the high elasticity of sludge cake and the rapid creeping of the aggregates within the sludge cake. In addition, the usefulness of bioacidification driven by A. ferrooxidans LX5 in improving the compression dewatering of sewage sludge could not be attained by the chemical treatment of sludge through pH modification and Fe 3+ addition. Therefore, the bioacidification of sludge driven by A. ferrooxidans LX5 is an effective conditioning method to simultaneously improve the rate and extent of compression dewatering of sewage sludge.

Rejection of unfair offers can be driven by negative emotions, evidence from modified ultimatum games with anonymity.

PubMed

Ma, Ning; Li, Nan; He, Xiao-Song; Sun, De-Lin; Zhang, Xiaochu; Zhang, Da-Ren

2012-01-01

The rejection of unfair offers can be affected by both negative emotions (e.g. anger and moral disgust) and deliberate cognitive processing of behavioral consequences (e.g. concerns of maintaining social fairness and protecting personal reputation). However, whether negative emotions are sufficient to motivate this behavior is still controversial. With modified ultimatum games, a recent study (Yamagishi T, et al. (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:11520-11523) found that people reject unfair offers even when this behavior increases inequity, and even when they could not communicate to the proposers. Yamagishi suggested that rejection of unfair offers could occur without people's concerning of maintaining social fairness, and could be driven by negative emotions. However, as anonymity was not sufficiently guaranteed in Yamagishi's study, the rejection rates in their experiments may have been influenced by people's concerns of protecting personal reputation (reputational concerns) in addition to negative emotions; thus, it was unclear whether the rejection was driven by negative emotions, or by reputational concerns, or both. In the present study, with specific methods to ensure anonymity, the effect of reputational concerns was successfully ruled out. We found that in a private situation in which rejection could not be driven by reputational concerns, the rejection rates of unfair offers were significantly larger than zero, and in public situations in which rejection rates could be influenced by both negative emotions and reputational concerns, rejection rates were significantly higher than that in the private situation. These results, together with Yamagishi's findings, provided more complete evidence suggesting (a) that the rejection of unfair offers can be driven by negative emotions and (b) that deliberate cognitive processing of the consequences of the behavior can increase the rejection rate, which may benefit social cooperation.

Climate Change and the Long-term Viability of the World's Busiest Heavy Haul Ice Road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, D.

2016-12-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Swindles, Graeme; Patterson, Tim; Galloway, Jennifer; Macumber, Andrew; Falck, Hendrik; Crossley, Laura; Chen, Jie; Pisaric, Michael

2017-08-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

A smart, intermittent driven particle sensor with an airflow change trigger using a lead zirconate titanate (PZT) cantilever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hidetoshi; Tomimatsu, Yutaka; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Isozaki, Akihiro; Itoh, Toshihiro; Maeda, Ryutaro; Matsumoto, Kiyoshi; Shimoyama, Isao

2014-02-01

This paper reports on a smart, intermittent driven particle sensor with an airflow trigger. A lead zirconate titanate cantilever functions as the trigger, which detects an airflow change without requiring a power supply to drive the sensing element. Because an airflow change indicates that the particle concentration has changed, the trigger switches the optical particle counter from sleep mode to active mode only when the particle concentration surrounding the sensor changes. The sensor power consumption in sleep mode is 100 times less than that in the active mode. Thus, this intermittent driven method significantly reduces the total power consumption of the particle sensor. In this paper, we fabricate a prototype of the particle sensor and demonstrate that the optical particle counter can be switched on by the fabricated trigger and thus that the particle concentration can be measured.

An IRT Model with a Parameter-Driven Process for Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rijmen, Frank; De Boeck, Paul; van der Maas, Han L. J.

2005-01-01

An IRT model with a parameter-driven process for change is proposed. Quantitative differences between persons are taken into account by a continuous latent variable, as in common IRT models. In addition, qualitative inter-individual differences and auto-dependencies are accounted for by assuming within-subject variability with respect to the…

The Changing Role of Government and Other Stakeholders in Vocational Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Labour Office, Geneva (Switzerland).

Historically, the roles of the public and private sectors in VET have been characterized by the following broad stages: (1) unstructured and unregulated VET; (2) supply-driven, state dominated VET; and (3) market-driven VET. More recently, the combined forces of globalization, technological change, and liberalization of markets have forced…

Modeling sediment accumulation in North American playa wetlands in response to climate change, 1940-2100

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burris, Lucy; Skagen, Susan K.

2013-01-01

Playa wetlands on the west-central Great Plains of North America are vulnerable to sediment infilling from upland agriculture, putting at risk several important ecosystem services as well as essential habitats and food resources of diverse wetland-dependent biota. Climate predictions for this semi-arid area indicate reduced precipitation which may alter rates of erosion, runoff, and sedimentation of playas. We forecasted erosion rates, sediment depths, and resultant playa wetland depths across the west-central Great Plains and examined the relative roles of land use context and projected changes in precipitation in the sedimentation process. We estimated erosion with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using historic values and downscaled precipitation predictions from three general circulation models and three emissions scenarios. We calibrated RUSLE results using field sediment measurements. RUSLE is appealing for regional scale modeling because it uses climate forecasts with monthly resolution and other widely available values including soil texture, slope and land use. Sediment accumulation rates will continue near historic levels through 2070 and will be sufficient to cause most playas (if not already filled) to fill with sediment within the next 100 years in the absence of mitigation. Land use surrounding the playa, whether grassland or tilled cropland, is more influential in sediment accumulation than climate-driven precipitation change.

Fluvial-Deltaic Strata as a High-Resolution Recorder of Fold Growth and Fault Slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasio, D. J.; Kodama, K. P.; Pazzaglia, F. P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial-deltaic systems characterize the depositional record of most wedge-top and foreland basins, where the synorogenic stratigraphy responds to interactions between sediment supply driven by tectonic uplift, climate modulated sea level change and erosion rate variability, and fold growth patterns driven by unsteady fault slip. We integrate kinematic models of fault-related folds with growth strata and fluvial terrace records to determine incremental rates of shortening, rock uplift, limb tilting, and fault slip with 104-105 year temporal resolution in the Pyrenees and Apennines. At Pico del Aguila anticline, a transverse dècollement fold along the south Pyrenean mountain front, formation-scale synorogenic deposition and clastic facies patterns in prodeltaic and slope facies reflect tectonic forcing of sediment supply, sea level variability controlling delta front position, and climate modulated changes in terrestrial runoff. Growth geometries record a pinned anticline and migrating syncline hinges during folding above the emerging Guarga thrust sheet. Lithologic and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) data series from the Eocene Arguis Fm. show cyclicity at Milankovitch frequencies allowing detailed reconstruction of unsteady fold growth. Multiple variations in limb tilting rates from <8° to 28°/my over 7my are attributed to unsteady fault slip along the roof ramp and basal dècollement. Along the northern Apennine mountain front, the age and geometry of strath terraces preserved across the Salsomaggiore anticline records the Pleistocene-Recent kinematics of the underlying fault-propagation fold as occurring with a fixed anticline hinge, a rolling syncline hinge, and along-strike variations in uplift and forelimb tilting. The uplifted intersection of terrace deposits documents syncline axial surface migration and underlying fault-tip propagation at a rate of ~1.4 cm/yr since the Middle Pleistocene. Because this record of fault slip coincides with the well-known large amplitude oscillations in global climate that contribute to the filling and deformation of the Po foreland, we hypothesize that climatically-modulated surface processes are reflected in the observed rates of fault slip and fold growth.

Anesthesiology and competitive strategy.

PubMed

Gross, Wendy L; Gold, Barbara

2009-03-01

Whether we like it or not, medicine is big business. The argument is sometimes made that standard management strategies from the business world do not apply to medicine because the economics and practice of medicine are unique--driven by science and rapid rates of change. But an exploding knowledge base, light-speed technological development, and ever-changing reimbursement schemes are not exclusive to medicine and health care. Some fundamental principles of finance, business management, and strategic development have evolved to deal with problems of rapid change. These principles do apply to modern medicine. The business side of anesthesia practice is off-putting to many clinicians. However, knowledge of the market forces at play can help enhance patient care, improve service, expand opportunities, and extend the perimeter of the discipline. The mission and current market position of anesthesiology practice are considered here.

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

Groundwater withdrawal in the Central Valley, California: implications for San Andreas Fault stressing and lithosphere rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, P.; Liu, Z.; Ali, S. T.; Farr, T.; Faunt, C. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic perturbations to crustal loading due to groundwater pumping are increasingly recognized as causing changes in nearby fault stresses. We present preliminary analysis of crustal unloading in the Central Valley (CV), California, for the period 2006-2010 to infer Coulomb stress changes on the central San Andreas Fault (CSAF), lithospheric rheology, and system memory due to more than a century of groundwater withdrawal in the southern CV. We use data-driven unloading estimates to drive three-dimensional (3-D) finite element method models and compare model vertical surface deformation rates with observed GPS uplift rates outside the CV. Groundwater level changes are observed through well water elevation changes and through the resultant surface deformation (subsidence) by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and through broader scale changes in gravity from the GRACE satellite time variable gravity data [Famiglietti et al., 2011] that constrain the overall water volume changes. Combining InSAR with well-water data we are able to estimate the aquifer skeletal elastic and inelastic response and through a linear inversion derive the water volume (load) changes across the Central Valley and compare them with GRACE-inferred groundwater changes. Preliminary 3-D finite element method modeling that considers elastic and viscosity structure in the lithosphere gives three interesting results: 1) elastic models poorly fit the uplift rates near the SAF; 2) viscoelastic models that simulate different unloading histories show the past history of groundwater unloading has significant residual uplift rates and fault stress changes; 3) Coulomb stress change varies from inhibited on the locked (Carrizo) section to promoted on the creeping section of the SAF north of Parkfield. Thus, 3D models that account for lithosphere rheology, loading history viscous relaxation, have significant implications for longer-term time-dependent deformation, stress perturbation, and earthquake hazard on the nearby faults. Reference: Famiglietti, J. S., M. Lo, S. L. Ho, J. Bethune, K. J. Anderson, T. H. Syed, S. C. Swenson, C. R. de Linage, and M. Rodell, 2011, Satellites measure recent rates of groundwater depletion in California's Central Valley, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L03403, doi:10.1029/2010GL046442.

Visuocortical Changes During Delay and Trace Aversive Conditioning: Evidence From Steady-State Visual Evoked Potentials

PubMed Central

Miskovic, Vladimir; Keil, Andreas

2015-01-01

The visual system is biased towards sensory cues that have been associated with danger or harm through temporal co-occurrence. An outstanding question about conditioning-induced changes in visuocortical processing is the extent to which they are driven primarily by top-down factors such as expectancy or by low-level factors such as the temporal proximity between conditioned stimuli and aversive outcomes. Here, we examined this question using two different differential aversive conditioning experiments: participants learned to associate a particular grating stimulus with an aversive noise that was presented either in close temporal proximity (delay conditioning experiment) or after a prolonged stimulus-free interval (trace conditioning experiment). In both experiments we probed cue-related cortical responses by recording steady-state visual evoked potentials (ssVEPs). Although behavioral ratings indicated that all participants successfully learned to discriminate between the grating patterns that predicted the presence versus absence of the aversive noise, selective amplification of population-level responses in visual cortex for the conditioned danger signal was observed only when the grating and the noise were temporally contiguous. Our findings are in line with notions purporting that changes in the electrocortical response of visual neurons induced by aversive conditioning are a product of Hebbian associations among sensory cell assemblies rather than being driven entirely by expectancy-based, declarative processes. PMID:23398582

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; ...

2015-03-23

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves overmore » a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams.« less

Multi-proxy evidence for climate-driven changes in arctic lakes from northern Russia over the Holocene.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Self, Angela; Brooks, Stephen; Jones, Vivienne; Solovieva, Nadia; McGowan, Suzanne; Rosén, Peter; Parrott, Emily; Seppä, Heikki; Salonen, Sakari

2010-05-01

Average arctic temperatures have increased at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world over the last 100 years and climate projections suggest this trend is likely to continue resulting in an additional warming of 2 - 3°C in annual mean air temperatures by 2050. Freshwater ecosystems occupy a substantial area of the terrestrial environment in the Arctic and are particularly sensitive to temperature increases which may lead to profound changes in catchment characteristics, permafrost, hydrology and nutrient availability. Therefore it is important to understand how past changes in climate have affected these ecosystems. In this paper we present one of the first quantitative multi-proxy climate records from arctic Siberia. The affect of early - mid Holocene and recent climate change on arctic lakes in northern Russia were investigated in multi-proxy studies. The past climate was reconstructed using chironomid inference models to estimate mean July air temperatures and trends in continentality. Stable isotopes and LOI were analysed to infer past changes in sediment organic matter. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and/or diatoms were used to infer changes in lake water total organic carbon and algal pigments and/or diatoms were used to infer changes in productivity and light penetration in the lake. Analyses of a sediment core from a tundra lake (Lake Kharinei) in north-eastern European Russia show significant assemblage changes in diatoms, chironomids and pigments, which coincide with climate-driven vegetation shifts from open birch forest to spruce forest and then to tundra over the Holocene. During the open birch phase of the late Glacial - early Holocene, chironomid-inferred reconstructions suggest that the climate was approximately 1 - 3°C warmer and more continental than present. Isotopic analyses indicate a productive environment receiving a significant input of organic material from terrestrial plants into the lake. Both diatoms and NIRS-TOC also suggest that the lake water was relatively high in TOC. Spruce forest became established within the catchment during the early - mid Holocene, which appears to have stimulated algal production. Throughout this period July air temperatures are inferred to have gradually declined to present-day values and the climate became more maritime. From ca. 4000 cal yrs BP July air temperatures remained stable but continentality increased leading to a shorter ice-free period. The pollen and macrofossil record indicates a transition to tundra vegetation ca 3000 cal yr BP which coincides with major changes in pigments, chironomids and diatoms. High resolution reconstruction of climate variability over the last 200 years from two tundra lakes on the Putoran Plateau, western Siberia, suggest that mean July air temperatures warmed by approximately 0.5°C between ca 1820 - 1980 and have remained relatively stable over the last 30 years. However major compositional changes in the chironomid and diatom assemblages have occurred within the last 125 - 50 years. Since the 1970s increases in the instrumental June temperature record and a chironomid-inferred shift to a more maritime climate have been accompanied by increases in diatom accumulation rates together with an increase in within-lake productivity and a trend towards increased algal productivity (as highlighted by stable isotope analysis). The synchronicity of the changes suggests the biota may be responding to lengthening of the ice-free period and related limnological changes. The changes in these Russian lakes corroborate results from Europe and Arctic Canada and indicate a circumpolar pattern of climate-driven regime change in arctic lakes in the last 100 years.

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections.

PubMed

Benjamin, Daniel M; Budescu, David V

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people's interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting ; (2) imprecise , but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features - ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings . Estimates were closer to the experts' original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap - the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) - and a symmetry - the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information.

Pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) marine survival rates reflect early marine carbon source dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Thomas C., Jr.; Boldt, Jennifer L.; Farley, Edward V., Jr.; Haldorson, Lewis J.; Helle, John H.

2008-05-01

Marine survival rate (the number of adult salmon returning divided by the number of salmon fry released) of pink salmon runs propagated by Prince William Sound, Alaska (PWS) salmon hatcheries is highly variable resulting in large year-to-year run size variation, which ranged from ∼20 to ∼50 million during 1998-2004. Marine survival rate was hypothesized to be determined during their early marine life stage, a time period corresponding to the first growing season after entering the marine environment while they are still in coastal waters. Based on the predictable relationships of 13C/ 12C ratios in food webs and the existence of regional 13C/ 12C gradients in organic carbon, 13C/ 12C ratios of early marine pink salmon were measured to test whether marine survival rate was related to food web processes. Year-to-year variation in marine survival rate was inversely correlated to 13C/ 12C ratios of early marine pink salmon, but with differences among hatcheries. The weakest relationship was for pink salmon from the hatchery without historic co-variation of marine survival rate with other PWS hatcheries or wild stocks. Year-to-year variation in 13C/ 12C ratio of early marine stage pink salmon in combination with regional spatial gradients of 13C/ 12C ratio measured in zooplankton suggested that marine survival was driven by carbon subsidies of oceanic origin (i.e., oceanic zooplankton). The 2001 pink salmon cohort had 13C/ 12C ratios that were very similar to those found for PWS carbon, i.e., when oceanic subsidies were inferred to be nil, and had the lowest marine survival rate (2.6%). Conversely, the 2002 cohort had the highest marine survival (9.7%) and the lowest mean 13C/ 12C ratio. These isotope patterns are consistent with hypotheses that oceanic zooplankton subsidies benefit salmon as food subsidies, or as alternate prey for salmon predators. Oceanic subsidies are manifestations of significant exchange of material between PWS and the Gulf of Alaska. Given that previously observed inter-decadal cycles of oceanic zooplankton abundance were climatically driven, exchange between PWS and the Gulf of Alaska may be an important process for effecting synoptic changes in marine populations of higher trophic levels, and thus an important consideration for climate-change models and scenarios.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel M.; Budescu, David V.

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people’s interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features – ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings. Estimates were closer to the experts’ original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap – the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) – and asymmetry – the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information. PMID:29636717

The impact of CO2-driven ocean acidification on early development and calcification in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius.

PubMed

Zhan, Yaoyao; Hu, Wanbin; Zhang, Weijie; Liu, Minbo; Duan, Lizhu; Huang, Xianya; Chang, Yaqing; Li, Cong

2016-11-15

The impact of CO 2 -driven ocean acidification(OA) on early development and calcification in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius cultured in northern Yellow Sea was investigated by comparing fertilization success, early cleavage rate, hatching rate of blastulae, larvae survival rate at 70h post-fertilization, larval morphology and calcification under present natural seawater condition (pH=8.00±0.03) and three laboratory-controlled acidified conditions (OA 1 , △pH=-0.3units; OA 2 , △pH=-0.4units; OA 3 , △pH=-0.5units) projected by IPCC for 2100. Results showed that pH decline had no effect on the overall fertilization, however, with decreased pH, delayed early embryonic cleavage, reduced hatching rate of blastulae and four-armed larvae survival rate at 70h post-fertilization, impaired larval symmetry, shortened larval spicules, and corrosion spicule structure were observed in all OA-treated groups as compared to control, which indicated that CO 2 -driven OA affected early development and calcification in S. intermedius negatively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behaviour and physiology shape the growth accelerations associated with predation risk, high temperatures and southern latitudes in Ischnura damselfly larvae.

PubMed

Stoks, Robby; Swillen, Ine; De Block, Marjan

2012-09-01

1. To better predict effects of climate change and predation risk on prey animals and ecosystems, we need studies documenting not only latitudinal patterns in growth rate but also growth plasticity to temperature and predation risk and the underlying proximate mechanisms: behaviour (food intake) and digestive physiology (growth efficiency). The mechanistic underpinnings of predator-induced growth increases remain especially poorly understood. 2. We reared larvae from replicated northern and southern populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common garden experiment manipulating temperature and predation risk and quantified growth rate, food intake and growth efficiency. 3. The predator-induced and temperature-induced growth accelerations were the same at both latitudes, despite considerably faster growth rates in the southern populations. While the higher growth rates in the southern populations and the high rearing temperature were driven by both an increased food intake and a higher growth efficiency, the higher growth rates under predation risk were completely driven by a higher growth efficiency, despite a lowered food intake. 4. The emerging pattern that higher growth rates associated with latitude, temperature and predation risk were all (partly or completely) mediated by a higher growth efficiency has two major implications. First, it indicates that energy allocation trade-offs and the associated physiological costs play a major role both in shaping large-scale geographic variation in growth rates and in shaping the extent and direction of growth rate plasticity. Secondly, it suggests that the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food chains, where damselfly larvae are important intermediate predators, will be higher in southern populations, at higher temperatures and under predation risk. This may eventually contribute to the lengthening of food chains under these conditions and highlights that the prey identity may determine the influence of predation risk on food chain length. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

A Preliminary Study of the Effects of a Multitheory-Driven Intervention in Adults With Prediabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Tsai, Fu-Mian; Lin, Chiu-Chu; Lin, Huey-Shyan; Liu, Yi

2018-06-01

Prediabetes mellitus (pre-DM) is an important predictive indicator of Type 2 diabetes. A person with pre-DM is eight times more likely to develop diabetes than a person without pre-DM. Prior research suggests that proactive interventions may delay the progression of this disease and reduce the rate of disease development. The purposes of this preliminary study were to develop a multitheory-driven lifestyle intervention protocol for adults with pre-DM and to evaluate its feasibility and impacts on knowledge regarding pre-DM, dietary behaviors, and physical activity (primary outcomes) as well as to describe the disease progression indicators (secondary outcomes). A single-group, longitudinal study design was used. Thirty-nine participants were included in the analysis. A generalized estimating equation model was used to determine the trends in changes in the outcomes. All of the participants underwent testing at baseline (T0) and at 3 (T1), 6 (T2), and 12 (T3) months after the 4-week lifestyle intervention. There were significantly increasing trends for each study parameter (Pre-DM Knowledge Assessment Form-12, p < .01; Dietary Behavior Scale, p < .01) and significantly positive changes in body weight (p < .01), body mass index (p < .01), fasting glucose level (p < .01), and glycated hemoglobin level (p < .01) over the 12-month study period. This study supports the feasibility of the developed multitheory-driven lifestyle intervention protocol and suggests that its application may improve the effectiveness of diabetes prevention programs in clinical settings. Further randomized controlled trials are needed.

Changes in transcriptional orientation are associated with increases in evolutionary rates of enterobacterial genes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Changes in transcriptional orientation (“CTOs”) occur frequently in prokaryotic genomes. Such changes usually result from genomic inversions, which may cause a conflict between the directions of replication and transcription and an increase in mutation rate. However, CTOs do not always lead to the replication-transcription confrontation. Furthermore, CTOs may cause deleterious disruptions of operon structure and/or gene regulations. The currently existing CTOs may indicate relaxation of selection pressure. Therefore, it is of interest to investigate whether CTOs have an independent effect on the evolutionary rates of the affected genes, and whether these genes are subject to any type of selection pressure in prokaryotes. Methods Three closely related enterbacteria, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, were selected for comparisons of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonymous (dN) substitution rate between the genes that have experienced changes in transcriptional orientation (changed-orientation genes, “COGs”) and those that do not (same-orientation genes, “SOGs”). The dN/dS ratio was also derived to evaluate the selection pressure on the analyzed genes. Confounding factors in the estimation of evolutionary rates, such as gene essentiality, gene expression level, replication-transcription confrontation, and decreased dS at gene terminals were controlled in the COG-SOG comparisons. Results We demonstrate that COGs have significantly higher dN and dS than SOGs when a series of confounding factors are controlled. However, the dN/dS ratios are similar between the two gene groups, suggesting that the increase in dS can sufficiently explain the increase in dN in COGs. Therefore, the increases in evolutionary rates in COGs may be mainly mutation-driven. Conclusions Here we show that CTOs can increase the evolutionary rates of the affected genes. This effect is independent of the replication-transcription confrontation, which is suggested to be the major cause of inversion-associated evolutionary rate increases. The real cause of such evolutionary rate increases remains unclear but is worth further explorations. PMID:22152004

Rates of soil development from four soil chronosequences in the southern Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Taylor, E.M.; Hill, C.; Mark, R.K.; McFadden, L.D.; Reheis, M.C.; Sowers, J.M.; Wells, S.G.

1991-01-01

Four soil chronosequences in the southern Great Basin were examined in order to study and quantify soil development during the Quaternary. Soils of all four areas are developed in gravelly alluvial fans in semiarid climates with 8 to 40 cm mean annual precipitation. Lithologies of alluvium are granite-gneiss at Silver Lake, granite and basalt at Cima Volcanic Field, limestone at Kyle Canyon, and siliceous volcanic rocks at Fortymile Wash. Ages of the soils are approximated from several radiometric and experimental techniques, and rates are assessed using a conservative mathematical approach. Average rates for Holocene soils at Silver Lake are about 10 times higher than for Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash, based on limited age control. Holocene soils in all four areas appear to develop at similar rates, and Pleistocene soils at Kyle Canyon and Fortymile Wash may differ by only a factor of 2 to 4. Over time spans of several millennia, a preferred model for the age curves is not linear but may be exponential or parabolic, in which rates decrease with increasing age. These preliminary results imply that the geographical variation in rates within the southern Great Basin-Mojave region may be much less significant than temporal variation in rates of soil development. The reasons for temporal variation in rates and processes of soil development are complexly linked to climatic change and related changes in water and dust, erosional history, and internally driven chemical and physical processes. ?? 1991.

Characterizing regional-scale temporal evolution of air dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Wainwright, Haruko M; Seki, Akiyuki; Mikami, Satoshi; Saito, Kimiaki

2018-09-01

In this study, we quantify the temporal changes of air dose rates in the regional scale around the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, and predict the spatial distribution of air dose rates in the future. We first apply the Bayesian geostatistical method developed by Wainwright et al. (2017) to integrate multiscale datasets including ground-based walk and car surveys, and airborne surveys, all of which have different scales, resolutions, spatial coverage, and accuracy. This method is based on geostatistics to represent spatial heterogeneous structures, and also on Bayesian hierarchical models to integrate multiscale, multi-type datasets in a consistent manner. We apply this method to the datasets from three years: 2014 to 2016. The temporal changes among the three integrated maps enables us to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of radiation air dose rates. The data-driven ecological decay model is then coupled with the integrated map to predict future dose rates. Results show that the air dose rates are decreasing consistently across the region. While slower in the forested region, the decrease is particularly significant in the town area. The decontamination has contributed to significant reduction of air dose rates. By 2026, the air dose rates will continue to decrease, and the area above 3.8 μSv/h will be almost fully contained within the non-residential forested zone. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Rasmussen, Sune; Hutchinson, David; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel

2017-04-01

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late last glacial period (60,000 to 11,703 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with cooling in the north leading the onset of warming in the south. Some events, however, appear to have occurred independently of changes in deep water formation but still have a southern expression, implying that an alternative mechanism may have driven some global climatic changes during the glacial. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records of abrupt change. Here we exploit a bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate datasets spanning 28,400 to 30,400 years ago. We observe no divergence between terrestrial and marine 14C datasets implying limited impact of freshwater hosing on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, an ice-rafted debris event (SA2) in Southern Ocean waters appears to be associated with dramatic synchronous warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Using a fully coupled climate system model we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations and find that a southern salinity anomaly can trigger low-latitude temperature changes through barotropic and baroclinic oceanic waves that are atmospherically propagated globally via a Rossby wave train, consistent with contemporary modelling studies. Our results suggest the Antarctic ice sheets and Southern Ocean dynamics may have contributed to some global climatic changes through rapid ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for past (and future) change.

Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

PubMed

Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

2016-01-05

Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; P<0.001) each year. This decline was driven by decreases in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in coronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; P<0.001) of the decline in total coronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The assembly and disassembly of ecological networks.

PubMed

Bascompte, Jordi; Stouffer, Daniel B

2009-06-27

Global change has created a severe biodiversity crisis. Species are driven extinct at an increasing rate, and this has the potential to cause further coextinction cascades. The rate and shape of these coextinction cascades depend very much on the structure of the networks of interactions across species. Understanding network structure and how it relates to network disassembly, therefore, is a priority for system-level conservation biology. This process of network collapse may indeed be related to the process of network build-up, although very little is known about both processes and even less about their relationship. Here we review recent work that provides some preliminary answers to these questions. First, we focus on network assembly by emphasizing temporal processes at the species level, as well as the structural building blocks of complex ecological networks. Second, we focus on network disassembly as a consequence of species extinctions or habitat loss. We conclude by emphasizing some general rules of thumb that can help in building a comprehensive framework to understand the responses of ecological networks to global change.

Variations in creep rate along the Hayward Fault, California, interpreted as changes in depth of creep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, R.W.; Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.

2001-01-01

Variations ill surface creep rate along the Hayward fault are modeled as changes in locking depth using 3D boundary elements. Model creep is driven by screw dislocations at 12 km depth under the Hayward and other regional faults. Inferred depth to locking varies along strike from 4-12 km. (12 km implies no locking.) Our models require locked patches under the central Hayward fault, consistent with a M6.8 earthquake in 1868, but the geometry and extent of locking under the north and south ends depend critically on assumptions regarding continuity and creep behavior of the fault at its ends. For the northern onshore part of the fault, our models contain 1.4-1.7 times more stored moment than the model of Bu??rgmann et al. [2000]; 45-57% of this stored moment resides in creeping areas. It is important for seismic hazard estimation to know how much of this moment is released coseismically or as aseismic afterslip.

Surface-subsurface flow modeling: an example of large-scale research at the new NEON user facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, H.; McKnight, D. M.

2009-12-01

Climate change is predicted to alter surface-subsurface interactions in freshwater ecosystems. These interactions are hypothesized to control nutrient release at diel and seasonal time scales, which may then exert control over epilithic algal growth rates. The mechanisms underlying shifts in complex physical-chemical-biological patterns can be elucidated by long-term observations at sites that span hydrologic and climate gradients across the continent. Development of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will provide researchers the opportunity to investigate continental-scale patterns by combining investigator-driven measurements with Observatory data. NEON is a national-scale research platform for analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on ecology. NEON features sensor networks and experiments, linked by advanced cyberinfrastructure to record and archive ecological data for at least 30 years. NEON partitions the United States into 20 ecoclimatic domains. Each domain hosts one fully instrumented Core Aquatic site in a wildland area and one Relocatable site, which aims to capture ecologically significant gradients (e.g. landuse, nitrogen deposition, urbanization). In the current definition of NEON there are 36 Aquatic sites: 30 streams/rivers and 6 ponds/lakes. Each site includes automated, in-situ sensors for groundwater elevation and temperature; stream flow (discharge and stage); pond water elevation; atmospheric chemistry (Tair, barometric pressure, PAR, radiation); and surface water chemistry (DO, Twater, conductivity, pH, turbidity, cDOM, nutrients). Groundwater and surface water sites shall be regularly sampled for selected chemical and isotopic parameters. The hydrologic and geochemical monitoring design provides basic information on water and chemical fluxes in streams and ponds and between groundwater and surface water, which is intended to support investigator-driven modeling studies. Theoretical constructs, such as the River Continuum Concept, that aim to elucidate general mechanistic underpinnings of freshwater ecosystem function via testable hypotheses about relative rates of photosynthesis and respiration, for example, may be readily examined using data collected at hourly time scales at the NEON facility once constructed. By taking advantage of NEON data and adding PI-driven research to the Observatory, we can further our understanding of the relative roles of water flow, nutrients, temperature, and light on freshwater ecosystem function and structure.

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes.

PubMed

Duque, Alvaro; Stevenson, Pablo R; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-08-25

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of "thermophilization," we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C ⋅ y(-1)] across all censuses were 0.011 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.002-0.022 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for adult trees and 0.027 °C ⋅ y(-1) (95% confidence interval = 0.009-0.050 °C ⋅ y(-1)) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues.

Thermophilization of adult and juvenile tree communities in the northern tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Duque, Alvaro; Stevenson, Pablo R.; Feeley, Kenneth J.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in the composition of tropical montane forests towards increased relative abundances of species whose ranges were previously centered at lower, hotter elevations. To investigate this process of “thermophilization,” we analyzed patterns of compositional change over the last decade using recensus data from a network of 16 adult and juvenile tree plots in the tropical forests of northern Andes Mountains and adjacent lowlands in northwestern Colombia. Analyses show evidence that tree species composition is strongly linked to temperature and that composition is changing directionally through time, potentially in response to climate change and increasing temperatures. Mean rates of thermophilization [thermal migration rate (TMR), °C⋅y−1] across all censuses were 0.011 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.002–0.022 °C⋅y−1) for adult trees and 0.027 °C⋅y−1 (95% confidence interval = 0.009–0.050 °C⋅y−1) for juvenile trees. The fact that thermophilization is occurring in both the adult and juvenile trees and at rates consistent with concurrent warming supports the hypothesis that the observed compositional changes are part of a long-term process, such as global warming, and are not a response to any single episodic event. The observed changes in composition were driven primarily by patterns of tree mortality, indicating that the changes in composition are mostly via range retractions, rather than range shifts or expansions. These results all indicate that tropical forests are being strongly affected by climate change and suggest that many species will be at elevated risk for extinction as warming continues. PMID:26261350

Differential in surface elevation change across mangrove forests in the intertidal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Haifeng; Wang, Wenqing; Ma, Wei; Wang, Mao

2018-07-01

A better understanding of surface elevation changes in different mangrove forests would improve our predictions of sea-level rise impacts, not only upon mangrove species distributions in the intertidal zone, but also on the functioning of these wetlands. Here, a two-year (2015-2017) dataset derived from 18 RSET-MH (rod surface elevation table-marker horizon) stations at Dongzhaigang Bay, Hainan, China, was analyzed to investigate how surface elevation changes differed across mangrove species zones. The current SET data indicated a rather high rate (9.6 mm y-1, on average) of surface elevation gain that was mostly consistent with that (8.1 mm y-1, on average) inferred from either the 137Cs or 210Pb dating of sediment cores. In addition, these surface elevation changes were sensitive to elevation in the intertidal zone and differed significantly between the two study sites (Sanjiang and Houpai). Mangrove species inhabiting the lower intertidal zone tended to experience greater surface elevation change at Sanjiang, which agrees with the general view that sedimentation and elevation gains are driven by elevation in the intertidal zone (i.e., greater when positioned lower in the intertidal profile). However, at Houpai, both surface elevation change and surface accretion showed the opposite trend (i.e., greater when positioned higher in the intertidal profile). This study's results indicate that the pattern of surface elevation changes across the intertidal profile maybe inconsistent due to intricate biophysical controls. Therefore, instead of using a constant rate, models should presume a topography that evolves at differing rates of surface elevation change in different species zones across the intertidal profile when predicting the impacts of sea-level rise on mangrove distributions.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity.

PubMed

Nordbotten, Jan M; Levin, Simon A; Szathmáry, Eörs; Stenseth, Nils C

2018-01-23

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: ( i ) ecologically driven change, ( ii ) evolutionarily driven change, and ( iii ) environmentally driven change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang

2016-08-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths year-1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year-1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, I A; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang

2016-01-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM 2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM 2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM 2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM 2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Cryo-EM Data Are Superior to Contact and Interface Information in Integrative Modeling.

PubMed

de Vries, Sjoerd J; Chauvot de Beauchêne, Isaure; Schindler, Christina E M; Zacharias, Martin

2016-02-23

Protein-protein interactions carry out a large variety of essential cellular processes. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful technique for the modeling of protein-protein interactions at a wide range of resolutions, and recent developments have caused a revolution in the field. At low resolution, cryo-EM maps can drive integrative modeling of the interaction, assembling existing structures into the map. Other experimental techniques can provide information on the interface or on the contacts between the monomers in the complex. This inevitably raises the question regarding which type of data is best suited to drive integrative modeling approaches. Systematic comparison of the prediction accuracy and specificity of the different integrative modeling paradigms is unavailable to date. Here, we compare EM-driven, interface-driven, and contact-driven integrative modeling paradigms. Models were generated for the protein docking benchmark using the ATTRACT docking engine and evaluated using the CAPRI two-star criterion. At 20 Å resolution, EM-driven modeling achieved a success rate of 100%, outperforming the other paradigms even with perfect interface and contact information. Therefore, even very low resolution cryo-EM data is superior in predicting heterodimeric and heterotrimeric protein assemblies. Our study demonstrates that a force field is not necessary, cryo-EM data alone is sufficient to accurately guide the monomers into place. The resulting rigid models successfully identify regions of conformational change, opening up perspectives for targeted flexible remodeling. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cryo-EM Data Are Superior to Contact and Interface Information in Integrative Modeling

PubMed Central

de Vries, Sjoerd J.; Chauvot de Beauchêne, Isaure; Schindler, Christina E.M.; Zacharias, Martin

2016-01-01

Protein-protein interactions carry out a large variety of essential cellular processes. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful technique for the modeling of protein-protein interactions at a wide range of resolutions, and recent developments have caused a revolution in the field. At low resolution, cryo-EM maps can drive integrative modeling of the interaction, assembling existing structures into the map. Other experimental techniques can provide information on the interface or on the contacts between the monomers in the complex. This inevitably raises the question regarding which type of data is best suited to drive integrative modeling approaches. Systematic comparison of the prediction accuracy and specificity of the different integrative modeling paradigms is unavailable to date. Here, we compare EM-driven, interface-driven, and contact-driven integrative modeling paradigms. Models were generated for the protein docking benchmark using the ATTRACT docking engine and evaluated using the CAPRI two-star criterion. At 20 Å resolution, EM-driven modeling achieved a success rate of 100%, outperforming the other paradigms even with perfect interface and contact information. Therefore, even very low resolution cryo-EM data is superior in predicting heterodimeric and heterotrimeric protein assemblies. Our study demonstrates that a force field is not necessary, cryo-EM data alone is sufficient to accurately guide the monomers into place. The resulting rigid models successfully identify regions of conformational change, opening up perspectives for targeted flexible remodeling. PMID:26846888

Life-history plasticity and sustainable exploitation: a theory of growth compensation applied to walleye management.

PubMed

Lester, Nigel P; Shuter, Brian J; Venturelli, Paul; Nadeau, Daniel

2014-01-01

A simple population model was developed to evaluate the role of plastic and evolutionary life-history changes on sustainable exploitation rates. Plastic changes are embodied in density-dependent compensatory adjustments to somatic growth rate and larval/juvenile survival, which can compensate for the reductions in reproductive lifetime and mean population fecundity that accompany the higher adult mortality imposed by exploitation. Evolutionary changes are embodied in the selective pressures that higher adult mortality imposes on age at maturity, length at maturity, and reproductive investment. Analytical development, based on a biphasic growth model, led to simple equations that show explicitly how sustainable exploitation rates are bounded by each of these effects. We show that density-dependent growth combined with a fixed length at maturity and fixed reproductive investment can support exploitation-driven mortality that is 80% of the level supported by evolutionary changes in maturation and reproductive investment. Sustainable fishing mortality is proportional to natural mortality (M) times the degree of density-dependent growth, as modified by both the degree of density-dependent early survival and the minimum harvestable length. We applied this model to estimate sustainable exploitation rates for North American walleye populations (Sander vitreus). Our analysis of demographic data from walleye populations spread across a broad latitudinal range indicates that density-dependent variation in growth rate can vary by a factor of 2. Implications of this growth response are generally consistent with empirical studies suggesting that optimal fishing mortality is approximately 0.75M for teleosts. This approach can be adapted to the management of other species, particularly when significant exploitation is imposed on many, widely distributed, but geographically isolated populations.

Climate and litter quality differently modulate the effects of soil fauna on litter decomposition across biomes

PubMed Central

García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Kattge, Jens; Wall, Diana H.

2015-01-01

Climate and litter quality have been identified as major drivers of litter decomposition at large spatial scales. However, the role played by soil fauna remains largely unknown, despite its importance for litter fragmentation and microbial activity. We synthesized litterbag studies to quantify the effect sizes of soil fauna on litter decomposition rates at the global and biome scales, and to assess how climate, litter quality and soil fauna interact to determine such rates. Soil fauna consistently enhanced litter decomposition at both global and biome scales (average increment ~27%). However, climate and litter quality differently modulated the effects of soil fauna on decomposition rates between biomes, from climate-driven biomes to those where climate effects were mediated by changes in litter quality. Our results advocate for the inclusion of biome-specific soil fauna effects on litter decomposition as a mean to reduce the unexplained variation in large-scale decomposition models. PMID:23763716

Frequency-chirp rates of harmonics driven by a few-cycle pulse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murakami, M.; Mauritsson, J.; Gaarde, M.B.

2005-08-15

We present numerical calculations of the time-frequency characteristics of cutoff harmonics generated by few-cycle laser pulses. We find that for driving pulses as short as three optical cycles, the adiabatic prediction for the harmonic chirp rate is very accurate. This negative chirp is so large that the resulting bandwidth causes substantial overlap between neighboring harmonics, and the harmonic phase therefore appears to not vary in time or frequency. By adding a compensating positive chirp to the driving pulse, which reduces the harmonic bandwidth and allows for the appearance of the negative chirp, we can measure the harmonic chirp rates. Wemore » also find that the positive chirp on the driving pulse causes the harmonics to shift down in frequency. We show that this counterintuitive result is caused by the change in the strong field continuum dynamics introduced by the variation of the driving frequency with time.« less

Seismicity rate surge on faults after shut-in: poroelastic response to fluid injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. W.; Yoon, H.; Martinez, M. J.

2017-12-01

Subsurface energy activities such as geological CO2 storage and wastewater injection require injecting large amounts of fluid into the subsurface, which will alter the states of pore pressure and stress in the storage formation. One of the main issues for injection-induced seismicity is the post shut-in increases in the seismicity rate, often observed in the fluid-injection operation sites. The rate surge can be driven by the following mechanisms: (1) pore-pressure propagation into distant faults after shut-in and (2) poroelastic stressing caused by well operations, depending on fault geometry, hydraulic and mechanical properties of the formation, and injection history. We simulate the aerial view of the target reservoir intersected by strike-slip faults, in which injection-induced pressure buildup encounters the faults directly. We examine the poroelastic response of the faults to fluid injection and perform a series of sensitivity tests considering: (1) permeability of the fault zone, (2) locations and the number of faults with respect to the injection point, and (3) well operations with varying the injection rate. Our analysis of the Coulomb stress change suggests that the sealing fault confines pressure diffusion which stabilizes or weakens the nearby conductive fault depending on the injection location. We perform the sensitivity test by changing injection scenarios (time-dependent rates), while keeping the total amount of injected fluids. Sensitivity analysis shows that gradual reduction of the injection rate minimizes the Coulomb stress change and the least seismicity rates are predicted. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Flow Rate Driven by Peristaltic Movement in Plasmodial Tube of Physarum Polycephalum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, Hiroyasu; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2008-07-01

We report a theoretical analysis of protoplasmic streaming driven by peristaltic movement in an elastic tube of an amoeba-like organism. The Plasmodium of Physarum polycephalum, a true slime mold, is a large amoeboid organism that adopts a sheet-like form with a tubular network. The network extends throughout the Plasmodium and enables the transport and circulation of chemical signals and nutrients. This tubular flow is driven by periodically propagating waves of active contraction of the tube cortex, a process known as peristaltic movement. We derive the relationship between the phase velocity of the contraction wave and the flow rate, and we discuss the physiological implications of this relationship.

Analyzing the Discourse of Chais Conferences for the Study of Innovation and Learning Technologies via a Data-Driven Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silber-Varod, Vered; Eshet-Alkalai, Yoram; Geri, Nitza

2016-01-01

The current rapid technological changes confront researchers of learning technologies with the challenge of evaluating them, predicting trends, and improving their adoption and diffusion. This study utilizes a data-driven discourse analysis approach, namely culturomics, to investigate changes over time in the research of learning technologies. The…

Health expenditure growth: looking beyond the average through decomposition of the full distribution.

PubMed

de Meijer, Claudine; O'Donnell, Owen; Koopmanschap, Marc; van Doorslaer, Eddy

2013-01-01

Explanations of growth in health expenditures have restricted attention to the mean. We explain change throughout the distribution of expenditures, providing insight into how expenditure growth and its explanation differ along the distribution. We analyse Dutch data on actual health expenditures linked to hospital discharge and mortality registers. Full distribution decomposition delivers findings that would be overlooked by examination of changes in the mean alone. The growth rate of hospital expenditures is greatest at the middle of the distribution and is driven mainly by changes in the distributions of determinants. Pharmaceutical expenditures increase most rapidly at the top of the distribution and are mainly attributable to structural changes, including technological progress, making treatment of the highest cost cases even more expensive. Changes in hospital practice styles make the largest contribution of all determinants to increased spending not only on hospital care but also on pharmaceuticals, suggesting important spill over effects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2016-12-01

The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

Environmental effects on growth phenology of co-occurring Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Aponte, Cristina; Nitschke, Craig R

2014-05-01

Growth is one of the most important phenological cycles in a plant's life. Higher growth rates increase the competitive ability, survival and recruitment and can provide a measure of a plant's adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. This study identified the growth relationship of six Eucalyptus species to variations in temperature, soil moisture availability, photoperiod length and air humidity over 12 months. The six species represent two naturally co-occurring groups of three species each representing warm-dry and the cool-moist sclerophyll forests, respectively. Warm-dry eucalypts were found to be more tolerant of higher temperatures and lower air humidity than the cool-moist eucalypts. Within groups, species-specific responses were detected with Eucalyptus microcarpa having the widest phenological niche of the warm-dry species, exhibiting greater resistance to high temperature and lower air humidity. Temperature dependent photoperiodic responses were exhibited by all the species except Eucalyptus tricarpa and Eucalyptus sieberi, which were able to maintain growth as photoperiod shortened but temperature requirements were fulfilled. Eucalyptus obliqua exhibited a flexible growth rate and tolerance to moisture limitation which enables it to maintain its growth rate as water availability changes. The wider temperature niche exhibited by E. sieberi compared with E. obliqua and Eucalyptus radiata may improve its competitive ability over these species where winters are warm and moisture does not limit growth. With climate change expected to result in warmer and drier conditions in south-east Australia, the findings of this study suggest all cool-moist species will likely suffer negative effects on growth while the warm-dry species may still maintain current growth rates. Our findings highlight that climate driven shifts in growth phenology will likely occur as climate changes and this may facilitate changes in tree communities by altering inter-specific competition.

Data-driven region-of-interest selection without inflating Type I error rate.

PubMed

Brooks, Joseph L; Zoumpoulaki, Alexia; Bowman, Howard

2017-01-01

In ERP and other large multidimensional neuroscience data sets, researchers often select regions of interest (ROIs) for analysis. The method of ROI selection can critically affect the conclusions of a study by causing the researcher to miss effects in the data or to detect spurious effects. In practice, to avoid inflating Type I error rate (i.e., false positives), ROIs are often based on a priori hypotheses or independent information. However, this can be insensitive to experiment-specific variations in effect location (e.g., latency shifts) reducing power to detect effects. Data-driven ROI selection, in contrast, is nonindependent and uses the data under analysis to determine ROI positions. Therefore, it has potential to select ROIs based on experiment-specific information and increase power for detecting effects. However, data-driven methods have been criticized because they can substantially inflate Type I error rate. Here, we demonstrate, using simulations of simple ERP experiments, that data-driven ROI selection can indeed be more powerful than a priori hypotheses or independent information. Furthermore, we show that data-driven ROI selection using the aggregate grand average from trials (AGAT), despite being based on the data at hand, can be safely used for ROI selection under many circumstances. However, when there is a noise difference between conditions, using the AGAT can inflate Type I error and should be avoided. We identify critical assumptions for use of the AGAT and provide a basis for researchers to use, and reviewers to assess, data-driven methods of ROI localization in ERP and other studies. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Modelling past, present and future peatland carbon accumulation across the pan-Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Most northern peatlands developed during the Holocene, sequestering large amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. However, recent syntheses have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of peatland carbon accumulation. Assessments of the long-term carbon accumulation rate and possible warming-driven changes in these accumulation rates can therefore benefit from process-based modelling studies. We employed an individual-based dynamic global ecosystem model with dynamic peatland and permafrost functionalities and patch-based vegetation dynamics to quantify long-term carbon accumulation rates and to assess the effects of historical and projected climate change on peatland carbon balances across the pan-Arctic region. Our results are broadly consistent with published regional and global carbon accumulation estimates. A majority of modelled peatland sites in Scandinavia, Europe, Russia and central and eastern Canada change from carbon sinks through the Holocene to potential carbon sources in the coming century. In contrast, the carbon sink capacity of modelled sites in Siberia, far eastern Russia, Alaska and western and northern Canada was predicted to increase in the coming century. The greatest changes were evident in eastern Siberia, north-western Canada and in Alaska, where peat production hampered by permafrost and low productivity due the cold climate in these regions in the past was simulated to increase greatly due to warming, a wetter climate and higher CO2 levels by the year 2100. In contrast, our model predicts that sites that are expected to experience reduced precipitation rates and are currently permafrost free will lose more carbon in the future.

Electric-field-driven electron-transfer in mixed-valence molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blair, Enrique P., E-mail: enrique-blair@baylor.edu; Corcelli, Steven A., E-mail: scorcell@nd.edu; Lent, Craig S., E-mail: lent@nd.edu

2016-07-07

Molecular quantum-dot cellular automata is a computing paradigm in which digital information is encoded by the charge configuration of a mixed-valence molecule. General-purpose computing can be achieved by arranging these compounds on a substrate and exploiting intermolecular Coulombic coupling. The operation of such a device relies on nonequilibrium electron transfer (ET), whereby the time-varying electric field of one molecule induces an ET event in a neighboring molecule. The magnitude of the electric fields can be quite large because of close spatial proximity, and the induced ET rate is a measure of the nonequilibrium response of the molecule. We calculate themore » electric-field-driven ET rate for a model mixed-valence compound. The mixed-valence molecule is regarded as a two-state electronic system coupled to a molecular vibrational mode, which is, in turn, coupled to a thermal environment. Both the electronic and vibrational degrees-of-freedom are treated quantum mechanically, and the dissipative vibrational-bath interaction is modeled with the Lindblad equation. This approach captures both tunneling and nonadiabatic dynamics. Relationships between microscopic molecular properties and the driven ET rate are explored for two time-dependent applied fields: an abruptly switched field and a linearly ramped field. In both cases, the driven ET rate is only weakly temperature dependent. When the model is applied using parameters appropriate to a specific mixed-valence molecule, diferrocenylacetylene, terahertz-range ET transfer rates are predicted.« less

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Rate of rise in diastolic blood pressure influences vascular sympathetic response to mental stress.

PubMed

El Sayed, Khadigeh; Macefield, Vaughan G; Hissen, Sarah L; Joyner, Michael J; Taylor, Chloe E

2016-12-15

Research indicates that individuals may experience a rise (positive responders) or fall (negative responders) in muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) during mental stress. In this study, we examined the early blood pressure responses (including the peak, time of peak and rate of rise in blood pressure) to mental stress in positive and negative responders. Negative MSNA responders to mental stress exhibit a more rapid rise in diastolic pressure at the onset of the stressor, suggesting a baroreflex-mediated suppression of MSNA. In positive responders there is a more sluggish rise in blood pressure during mental stress, which appears to be MSNA-driven. This study suggests that whether MSNA has a role in the pressor response is dependent upon the reactivity of blood pressure early in the task. Research indicates that individuals may experience a rise (positive responders) or fall (negative responders) in muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) during mental stress. The aim was to examine the early blood pressure response to stress in positive and negative responders and thus its influence on the direction of change in MSNA. Blood pressure and MSNA were recorded continuously in 21 healthy young males during 2 min mental stressors (mental arithmetic, Stroop test) and physical stressors (cold pressor, handgrip exercise, post-exercise ischaemia). Participants were classified as negative or positive responders according to the direction of the mean change in MSNA during the stressor tasks. The peak changes, time of peak and rate of changes in blood pressure were compared between groups. During mental arithmetic negative responders experienced a significantly greater rate of rise in diastolic blood pressure in the first minute of the task (1.3 ± 0.5 mmHg s -1 ) compared with positive responders (0.4 ± 0.1 mmHg s -1 ; P = 0.03). Similar results were found for the Stroop test. Physical tasks elicited robust parallel increases in blood pressure and MSNA across participants. It is concluded that negative MSNA responders to mental stress exhibit a more rapid rise in diastolic pressure at the onset of the stressor, suggesting a baroreflex-mediated suppression of MSNA. In positive responders there is a more sluggish rise in blood pressure during mental stress, which appears to be MSNA-driven. This study suggests that whether MSNA has a role in the pressor response is dependent upon the reactivity of blood pressure early in the task. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

Rate of rise in diastolic blood pressure influences vascular sympathetic response to mental stress

PubMed Central

El Sayed, Khadigeh; Macefield, Vaughan G.; Hissen, Sarah L.; Joyner, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Key points Research indicates that individuals may experience a rise (positive responders) or fall (negative responders) in muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) during mental stress.In this study, we examined the early blood pressure responses (including the peak, time of peak and rate of rise in blood pressure) to mental stress in positive and negative responders.Negative MSNA responders to mental stress exhibit a more rapid rise in diastolic pressure at the onset of the stressor, suggesting a baroreflex‐mediated suppression of MSNA. In positive responders there is a more sluggish rise in blood pressure during mental stress, which appears to be MSNA‐driven.This study suggests that whether MSNA has a role in the pressor response is dependent upon the reactivity of blood pressure early in the task. Abstract Research indicates that individuals may experience a rise (positive responders) or fall (negative responders) in muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) during mental stress. The aim was to examine the early blood pressure response to stress in positive and negative responders and thus its influence on the direction of change in MSNA. Blood pressure and MSNA were recorded continuously in 21 healthy young males during 2 min mental stressors (mental arithmetic, Stroop test) and physical stressors (cold pressor, handgrip exercise, post‐exercise ischaemia). Participants were classified as negative or positive responders according to the direction of the mean change in MSNA during the stressor tasks. The peak changes, time of peak and rate of changes in blood pressure were compared between groups. During mental arithmetic negative responders experienced a significantly greater rate of rise in diastolic blood pressure in the first minute of the task (1.3 ± 0.5 mmHg s−1) compared with positive responders (0.4 ± 0.1 mmHg s−1; P = 0.03). Similar results were found for the Stroop test. Physical tasks elicited robust parallel increases in blood pressure and MSNA across participants. It is concluded that negative MSNA responders to mental stress exhibit a more rapid rise in diastolic pressure at the onset of the stressor, suggesting a baroreflex‐mediated suppression of MSNA. In positive responders there is a more sluggish rise in blood pressure during mental stress, which appears to be MSNA‐driven. This study suggests that whether MSNA has a role in the pressor response is dependent upon the reactivity of blood pressure early in the task. PMID:27690366

Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.

2013-12-01

Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives for municipal officials that the Science Museum of Minnesota has implemented over the past two years.

Solid–Liquid Phase Change Driven by Internal Heat Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John Crepeau; Ali s. Siahpush

2012-07-01

This article presents results of solid-liquid phase change, the Stefan Problem, where melting is driven internal heat generation, in a cylindrical geometry. The comparison between a quasi-static analytical solution for Stefan numbers less than one and numerical solutions shows good agreement. The computational results of phase change with internal heat generation show how convection cells form in the liquid region. A scale analysis of the same problem shows four distinct regions of the melting process.

Temporal patterns of damage and decay kinetics of DNA retrieved from plant herbarium specimens.

PubMed

Weiß, Clemens L; Schuenemann, Verena J; Devos, Jane; Shirsekar, Gautam; Reiter, Ella; Gould, Billie A; Stinchcombe, John R; Krause, Johannes; Burbano, Hernán A

2016-06-01

Herbaria archive a record of changes of worldwide plant biodiversity harbouring millions of specimens that contain DNA suitable for genome sequencing. To profit from this resource, it is fundamental to understand in detail the process of DNA degradation in herbarium specimens. We investigated patterns of DNA fragmentation and nucleotide misincorporation by analysing 86 herbarium samples spanning the last 300 years using Illumina shotgun sequencing. We found an exponential decay relationship between DNA fragmentation and time, and estimated a per nucleotide fragmentation rate of 1.66 × 10(-4) per year, which is six times faster than the rate estimated for ancient bones. Additionally, we found that strand breaks occur specially before purines, and that depurination-driven DNA breakage occurs constantly through time and can to a great extent explain decreasing fragment length over time. Similar to what has been found analysing ancient DNA from bones, we found a strong correlation between the deamination-driven accumulation of cytosine to thymine substitutions and time, which reinforces the importance of substitution patterns to authenticate the ancient/historical nature of DNA fragments. Accurate estimations of DNA degradation through time will allow informed decisions about laboratory and computational procedures to take advantage of the vast collection of worldwide herbarium specimens.

Activated Monocytes Enhance Platelet-Driven Contraction of Blood Clots via Tissue Factor Expression.

PubMed

Peshkova, Alina D; Le Minh, Giang; Tutwiler, Valerie; Andrianova, Izabella A; Weisel, John W; Litvinov, Rustem I

2017-07-11

Platelet-driven reduction in blood clot volume (clot contraction or retraction) has been implicated to play a role in hemostasis and thrombosis. Although these processes are often linked with inflammation, the role of inflammatory cells in contraction of blood clots and thrombi has not been investigated. The aim of this work was to study the influence of activated monocytes on clot contraction. The effects of monocytes were evaluated using a quantitative optical tracking methodology to follow volume changes in a blood clot formed in vitro. When a physiologically relevant number of isolated human monocytes pre-activated with phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate (PMA) were added back into whole blood, the extent and rate of clot contraction were increased compared to addition of non-activated cells. Inhibition of tissue factor expression or its inactivation on the surface of PMA-treated monocytes reduced the extent and rate of clot contraction back to control levels with non-activated monocytes. On the contrary, addition of tissue factor enhanced clot contraction, mimicking the effects of tissue factor expressed on the activated monocytes. These data suggest that the inflammatory cells through their expression of tissue factor can directly affect hemostasis and thrombosis by modulating the size and density of intra- and extravascular clots and thrombi.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.

The role of biotic forces in driving macroevolution: beyond the Red Queen

PubMed Central

Voje, Kjetil L.; Holen, Øistein H.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

A multitude of hypotheses claim that abiotic factors are the main drivers of macroevolutionary change. By contrast, Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis is often put forward as the sole representative of the view that biotic forcing is the main evolutionary driver. This imbalance of hypotheses does not reflect our current knowledge: theoretical work demonstrates the plausibility of biotically driven long-term evolution, whereas empirical work suggests a central role for biotic forcing in macroevolution. We call for a more pluralistic view of how biotic forces may drive long-term evolution that is compatible with both phenotypic stasis in the fossil record and with non-constant extinction rates. Promising avenues of research include contrasting predictions from relevant theories within ecology and macroevolution, as well as embracing both abiotic and biotic proxies while modelling long-term evolutionary data. By fitting models describing hypotheses of biotically driven macroevolution to data, we could dissect their predictions and transcend beyond pattern description, possibly narrowing the divide between our current understanding of micro- and macroevolution. PMID:25948685

Future Flight Decks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arbuckle, P. Douglas; Abbott, Kathy H.; Abbott, Terence S.; Schutte, Paul C.

1998-01-01

The evolution of commercial transport flight deck configurations over the past 20-30 years and expected future developments are described. Key factors in the aviation environment are identified that the authors expect will significantly affect flight deck designers. One of these is the requirement for commercial aviation accident rate reduction, which is probably required if global commercial aviation is to grow as projected. Other factors include the growing incrementalism in flight deck implementation, definition of future airspace operations, and expectations of a future pilot corps that will have grown up with computers. Future flight deck developments are extrapolated from observable factors in the aviation environment, recent research results in the area of pilot-centered flight deck systems, and by considering expected advances in technology that are being driven by other than aviation requirements. The authors hypothesize that revolutionary flight deck configuration changes will be possible with development of human-centered flight deck design methodologies that take full advantage of commercial and/or entertainment-driven technologies.

Generalized ISAR--part I: an optimal method for imaging large naval vessels.

PubMed

Given, James A; Schmidt, William R

2005-11-01

We describe a generalized inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) process that performs well under a wide variety of conditions common to the naval ISAR tests of large vessels. In particular, the generalized ISAR process performs well in the presence of moderate intensity ship roll. The process maps localized scatterers onto peaks on the ISAR plot. However, in a generalized ISAR plot, each of the two coordinates of a peak is a fixed linear combination of the three ship coordinates of the scatterer causing the peak. Combining this process with interferometry will then provide high-accuracy three-dimensional location of the important scatterers on a ship. We show that ISAR can be performed in the presence of simultaneous roll and aspect change, provided the two Doppler rates are not too close in magnitude. We derive the equations needed for generalized ISAR, both roll driven and aspect driven, and test them against simulations performed in a variety of conditions, including large roll amplitudes.

A compact model for electroosmotic flows in microfluidic devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, R.; Aluru, N. R.

2002-09-01

A compact model to compute flow rate and pressure in microfluidic devices is presented. The microfluidic flow can be driven by either an applied electric field or a combined electric field and pressure gradient. A step change in the ζ-potential on a channel wall is treated by a pressure source in the compact model. The pressure source is obtained from the pressure Poisson equation and conservation of mass principle. In the proposed compact model, the complex fluidic network is simplified by an electrical circuit. The compact model can predict the flow rate, pressure distribution and other basic characteristics in microfluidic channels quickly with good accuracy when compared to detailed numerical simulation. Using the compact model, fluidic mixing and dispersion control are studied in a complex microfluidic network.

Understanding the impact of insulating and conducting endplate boundary conditions on turbulence in CSDX through nonlocal simulations

DOE PAGES

Vaezi, P.; Holland, C.; Thakur, S. C.; ...

2017-04-01

The Controlled Shear Decorrelation Experiment (CSDX) linear plasma device provides a unique platform for investigating the underlying physics of self-regulating drift-wave turbulence/zonal flow dynamics. A minimal model of 3D drift-reduced nonlocal cold ion fluid equations which evolves density, vorticity, and electron temperature fluctuations, with proper sheath boundary conditions, is used to simulate dynamics of the turbulence in CSDX and its response to changes in parallel boundary conditions. These simulations are then carried out using the BOUndary Turbulence (BOUT++) framework and use equilibrium electron density and temperature profiles taken from experimental measurements. The results show that density gradient-driven drift-waves are themore » dominant instability in CSDX. However, the choice of insulating or conducting endplate boundary conditions affects the linear growth rates and energy balance of the system due to the absence or addition of Kelvin-Helmholtz modes generated by the sheath-driven equilibrium E × B shear and sheath-driven temperature gradient instability. Moreover, nonlinear simulation results show that the boundary conditions impact the turbulence structure and zonal flow formation, resulting in less broadband (more quasi-coherent) turbulence and weaker zonal flow in conducting boundary condition case. These results are qualitatively consistent with earlier experimental observations.« less

Traffic crash statistics report, 2003

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-01-01

In 2003, the number of miles driven on Florida's highways increased by 7 billion; however, the mileage death rate decreased from 1.8 deaths per hundred million miles driven in 2002, to 1.7 in 2003. Florida continued to see improvements in traffic saf...

The Skills Agenda: Issues for Post-16 Providers. FEDA Comments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Maria; Mager, Caroline

Studies in Great Britain have focused on the rapidly changing economy of the 21st century and the skills that workers will need to contribute to it. The studies have found that the new century will be characterized by the knowledge-driven economy, changes driven by global markets, the rapid movement of finance, and developments in information and…

EOS Operations Systems: EDOS Implemented Changes to Reduce Operations Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cordier, Guy R.; Gomez-Rosa, Carlos; McLemore, Bruce D.

2007-01-01

The authors describe in this paper the progress achieved to-date with the reengineering of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Operations System (EDOS), the experience gained in the process and the ensuing reduction of ground systems operations costs. The reengineering effort included a major methodology change, applying to an existing schedule driven system, a data-driven system approach.

Application of Data-Driven Evidential Belief Functions to Prospectivity Mapping for Aquamarine-Bearing Pegmatites, Lundazi District, Zambia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carranza, E. J. M., E-mail: carranza@itc.nl; Woldai, T.; Chikambwe, E. M.

A case application of data-driven estimation of evidential belief functions (EBFs) is demonstrated to prospectivity mapping in Lundazi district (eastern Zambia). Spatial data used to represent recognition criteria of prospectivity for aquamarine-bearing pegmatites include mapped granites, mapped faults/fractures, mapped shear zones, and radioelement concentration ratios derived from gridded airborne radiometric data. Data-driven estimates EBFs take into account not only (a) spatial association between an evidential map layer and target deposits but also (b) spatial relationships between classes of evidences in an evidential map layer. Data-driven estimates of EBFs can indicate which spatial data provide positive or negative evidence of prospectivity.more » Data-driven estimates of EBFs of only spatial data providing positive evidence of prospectivity were integrated according to Dempster's rule of combination. Map of integrated degrees of belief was used to delineate zones of relative degress of prospectivity for aquamarine-bearing pegmatites. The predictive map has at least 85% prediction rate and at least 79% success rate of delineating training and validation deposits, respectively. The results illustrate usefulness of data-driven estimation of EBFs in GIS-based predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. The results also show usefulness of EBFs in managing uncertainties associated with evidential maps.« less

Generative Models in Deep Learning: Constraints for Galaxy Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turp, Maximilian Dennis; Schawinski, Kevin; Zhang, Ce; Weigel, Anna K.

2018-01-01

New techniques are essential to make advances in the field of galaxy evolution. Recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence and machine learning have proven that these tools can be applied to problems far more complex than simple image recognition. We use these purely data driven approaches to investigate the process of star formation quenching. We show that Variational Autoencoders provide a powerful method to forward model the process of galaxy quenching. Our results imply that simple changes in specific star formation rate and bulge to disk ratio cannot fully describe the properties of the quenched population.

A model for the spectroscopic variations of the peculiar symbiotic star MWC 560

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shore, Steven N.; Aufdenberg, Jason P.; Michalitsianos, A. G.

1994-01-01

In this note, we show that the ultraviolet and optical spectroscopic variability of this unique symbiotic star can be understood in terms of a time variable collimated stellar wind with a rapid acceleration near the source. Using the radial velocities observed during the ultraviolet bright phase, we find that a variation in the mass loss rate of a factor of ten can explain the ultraviolet spectral changes. The acceleration is far faster than normally observed in radiatively driven stellar winds and may be due to mechanical driving of the outflow from the disk.

Sediment focusing in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcantonio, Franco; Anderson, Robert F.; Higgins, Sean; Stute, Martin; Schlosser, Peter; Kubik, Peter

2001-06-01

At four sites in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean the flux of extraterrestrial ³He, determined using the excess 230Th profiling method, is 8 × 10-13 cm³ STP cm-2 ka-1. This supply rate is constant to within 30%. At these same sites, however, the burial rate of ³He, determined using chronostratigraphic accumulation rates, varies by more than a factor of 3. The lowest burial rates, which occur north of the equator at 1°N, 139°W are lower than the global average rate of supply of extraterrestrial ³He by 20% and indicate that sediment winnowing may have occurred. The highest burial rates, which are recorded at the equator and at 2°S, are higher than the rate of supply of extraterrestrial ³He by 100%, and these provide evidence for sediment focusing. By analyzing several proxies measured in core PC72 sediments spanning the past 450 kyr we demonstrate that periods of maximum burial rates of 230Th, ³He, 10Be, Ti, and barite, with a maximum peak-to-trough amplitude of a factor of 6, take place systematically during glacial time. However, the ratio of any one proxy to another is constant to within 30% over the entire length of the records. Given that each proxy represents a different source (234U decay in seawater, interplanetary dust, upper atmosphere, continental dust, or upper ocean), our preferred interpretation for the covariation is that the climate-related changes in burial rates are driven by changes in sediment focusing.

Macroeconomic conditions and opioid abuse.

PubMed

Hollingsworth, Alex; Ruhm, Christopher J; Simon, Kosali

2017-12-01

We examine how deaths and emergency department (ED) visits related to use of opioid analgesics (opioids) and other drugs vary with macroeconomic conditions. As the county unemployment rate increases by one percentage point, the opioid death rate per 100,000 rises by 0.19 (3.6%) and the opioid overdose ED visit rate per 100,000 increases by 0.95 (7.0%). Macroeconomic shocks also increase the overall drug death rate, but this increase is driven by rising opioid deaths. Our findings hold when performing a state-level analysis, rather than county-level; are primarily driven by adverse events among whites; and are stable across time periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cenozoic forearc tectonics in northeastern Japan: Relationships between outer forearc subsidence and plate boundary kinematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regalla, Christine

Here we investigate the relationships between outer forearc subsidence, the timing and kinematics of upper plate deformation and plate convergence rate in Northeast Japan to evaluate the role of plate boundary dynamics in driving forearc subsidence. The Northeastern Japan margin is one of the first non-accretionary subduction zones where regional forearc subsidence was argued to reflect tectonic erosion of large volumes of upper crustal rocks. However, we propose that a significant component of forearc subsidence could be the result of dynamic changes in plate boundary geometry. We provide new constraints on the timing and kinematics of deformation along inner forearc faults, new analyses of the evolution of outer forearc tectonic subsidence, and updated calculations of plate convergence rate. These data collectively reveal a temporal correlation between the onset of regional forearc subsidence, the initiation of upper plate extension, and an acceleration in local plate convergence rate. A similar analysis of the kinematic evolution of the Tonga, Izu-Bonin, and Mariana subduction zones indicates that the temporal correlations observed in Japan are also characteristic of these three non-accretionary margins. Comparison of these data with published geodynamic models suggests that forearc subsidence is the result of temporal variability in slab geometry due to changes in slab buoyancy and plate convergence rate. These observations suggest that a significant component of forearc subsidence at these four margins is not the product of tectonic erosion, but instead reflects changes in plate boundary dynamics driven by variable plate kinematics.

Effect of heliox- and air-driven nebulized bronchodilator therapy on lung function in patients with asthma.

PubMed

El-Khatib, Mohamad F; Jamaleddine, Ghassan; Kanj, Nadim; Zeineddine, Salah; Chami, Hassan; Bou-Akl, Imad; Husari, Ahmad; Alawieh, Marwan; Bou-Khalil, Pierre

2014-06-01

This study compares the effect of heliox-driven to that of air-driven bronchodilator therapy on the pulmonary function test (PFT) in patients with different levels of asthma severity. One-hundred thirty-two participants were included in the study. Participants underwent spirometry twice with bronchodilator testing on two consecutive days. Air-driven nebulization was used one day and heliox-driven nebulization the other day in random order crossover design. After a baseline PFT, each participant received 2.5 mg of albuterol sulfate nebulized with the randomized driving gas. Post bronchodilator PFT was repeated after 30 min. The next day, the exact same protocol was repeated, except that the other driving gas was used to nebulize the drug. Participants were subgrouped and analyzed according to their baseline FEV(1) on day 1: Group I, FEV(1) ≥80 %; Group II, 80 % > FEV(1) > 50 %; Group III, FEV(1) ≤50 %. The proportion of participants with greater than 12 % and 200-mL increases from their baseline FEV(1) and the changes from baseline in PFT variables were compared between heliox-driven versus air-driven bronchodilation therapy. The proportion of participants with >12 % and 200-mL increases from their baseline FEV(1) with air- or heliox-driven bronchodilation was not different with respect to the proportion of participants with baseline FEV(1) ≥80 % (20 vs. 18 %, respectively) and 80 % > FEV(1) > 50 % (36 vs. 43 %, respectively), but it was significantly greater with heliox-driven bronchodilation in participants with FEV(1) ≤50 % (43 vs. 73 %, respectively; p = 0.01). Changes from baseline FVC, FEV(1), FEV(1)/FVC, FEF(25-75) %, FEF(max), FEF(25) %, FEF(50) %, and FEF(75) % were significantly larger with heliox-driven versus air-driven bronchodilation in participants with baseline FEV(1) ≤50 %. Improvements in PFT variables are more frequent and profound with heliox-driven compared to air-driven bronchodilator therapy only in asthmatic patients with baseline FEV(1) ≤50 %.

Dual-layer electrode-driven liquid crystal lens with electrically tunable focal length and focal plane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y. A.; Lin, C. F.; Lin, J. P.; Zeng, X. Y.; Yan, Q.; Zhou, X. T.; Guo, T. L.

2018-04-01

Electric-field-driven liquid crystal (ELC) lens with tunable focal length and their depth of field has been extensively applied in 3D display and imaging systems. In this work, a dual-layer electrode-driven liquid crystal (DELC) lens with electrically tunable focal length and controllable focal plane is demonstrated. ITO-SiO2-AZO electrodes with the dual-layer staggered structure on the top substrate are used as driven electrodes within a LC cell, which permits the establishment of an alternative controllability. The focal length of the DELC lens can be adjusted from 1.41 cm to 0.29 cm when the operating voltage changes from 15 V to 40 V. Furthermore, the focal plane of the DELC lens can selectively move by changing the driving method of the applied voltage to the next driven electrodes. This work demonstrates that the DELC lens has potential applications in imaging systems because of electrically tunable focal length and controllable focal plane.

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

PubMed Central

Crampton, James S.; Cody, Rosie D.; Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; McKay, Robert; Naish, Tim R.

2016-01-01

It is not clear how Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, which form the base of the marine food web and are a crucial element of the carbon cycle, respond to major environmental disturbance. Here, we use a new model ensemble reconstruction of diatom speciation and extinction rates to examine phytoplankton response to climate change in the southern high latitudes over the past 15 My. We identify five major episodes of species turnover (origination rate plus extinction rate) that were coincident with times of cooling in southern high-latitude climate, Antarctic ice sheet growth across the continental shelves, and associated seasonal sea-ice expansion across the Southern Ocean. We infer that past plankton turnover occurred when a warmer-than-present climate was terminated by a major period of glaciation that resulted in loss of open-ocean habitat south of the polar front, driving non-ice adapted diatoms to regional or global extinction. These findings suggest, therefore, that Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities tolerate “baseline” variability on glacial–interglacial timescales but are sensitive to large-scale changes in mean climate state driven by a combination of long-period variations in orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide perturbations. PMID:27274061

Southern Ocean phytoplankton turnover in response to stepwise Antarctic cooling over the past 15 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crampton, James S.; Cody, Rosie D.; Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; McKay, Robert; Naish, Tim R.

2016-06-01

It is not clear how Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities, which form the base of the marine food web and are a crucial element of the carbon cycle, respond to major environmental disturbance. Here, we use a new model ensemble reconstruction of diatom speciation and extinction rates to examine phytoplankton response to climate change in the southern high latitudes over the past 15 My. We identify five major episodes of species turnover (origination rate plus extinction rate) that were coincident with times of cooling in southern high-latitude climate, Antarctic ice sheet growth across the continental shelves, and associated seasonal sea-ice expansion across the Southern Ocean. We infer that past plankton turnover occurred when a warmer-than-present climate was terminated by a major period of glaciation that resulted in loss of open-ocean habitat south of the polar front, driving non-ice adapted diatoms to regional or global extinction. These findings suggest, therefore, that Southern Ocean phytoplankton communities tolerate “baseline” variability on glacial-interglacial timescales but are sensitive to large-scale changes in mean climate state driven by a combination of long-period variations in orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide perturbations.

Implications of bed reduction in an acute psychiatric service.

PubMed

Bastiampillai, Tarun J; Bidargaddi, Niranjan P; Dhillon, Rohan S; Schrader, Geoffrey D; Strobel, Jörg E; Galley, Philip J

2010-10-04

To evaluate the impact of psychiatric inpatient bed closures, accompanied by a training program aimed at enhancing team effectiveness and incorporating data-driven practices, in a mental health service. Retrospective comparison of the changes in services within three consecutive financial years: baseline period - before bed reduction (2006-07); observation period - after bed reduction (2007-08); and intervention period - second year after bed reduction (2008-09). The study was conducted at Cramond Clinic, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Adelaide. Length of stay, 28-day readmission rates, discharges, bed occupancy rates, emergency department (ED) presentations, ED waiting time, seclusions, locality of treatment, and follow-up in the community within 7days. Reduced bed numbers were associated with reduced length of stay, fewer referrals from the community and subsequently shorter waiting times in the ED, without significant change in readmission rates. A higher proportion of patients was treated in the local catchment area, with improved community follow-up and a significant reduction in inpatient seclusions. Our findings should reassure clinicians concerned about psychiatric bed numbers that service redesign with planned bed reductions will not necessarily affect clinical care, provided data literacy and team training programs are in place to ensure smooth transition of patients across ED, inpatient and community services.

Relationship Between Unusual High-Temperature Fatigue Crack Growth Threshold Behavior in Superalloys and Sudden Failure Mode Transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Telesman, J.; Smith, T. M.; Gabb, T. P.; Ring, A. J.

2017-01-01

An investigation of high temperature cyclic fatigue crack growth (FCG) threshold behavior of two advanced nickel disk alloys was conducted. The focus of the study was the unusual crossover effect in the near-threshold region of these type of alloys where conditions which produce higher crack growth rates in the Paris regime, produce higher resistance to crack growth in the near threshold regime. It was shown that this crossover effect is associated with a sudden change in the fatigue failure mode from a predominant transgranular mode in the Paris regime to fully intergranular mode in the threshold fatigue crack growth region. This type of a sudden change in the fracture mechanisms has not been previously reported and is surprising considering that intergranular failure is typically associated with faster crack growth rates and not the slow FCG rates of the near-threshold regime. By characterizing this behavior as a function of test temperature, environment and cyclic frequency, it was determined that both the crossover effect and the onset of intergranular failure are caused by environmentally driven mechanisms which have not as yet been fully identified. A plausible explanation for the observed behavior is proposed.

Testing a structural model for viral DNA packaging motor function by optical tweezers measurements, site directed mutagenesis, and molecular dynamics calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Nicholas A.; Migliori, Amy D.; Arya, Gaurav; Rao, Venigalla B.; Smith, Douglas E.

2013-09-01

Many double-stranded DNA viruses employ a molecular motor to package DNA into preformed capsid shells. Based on structures of phage T4 motor proteins determined by X-ray crystallography and cryo-electron microscopy, Rao, Rossmann and coworkers recently proposed a structural model for motor function. They proposed that DNA is ratcheted by a large conformational change driven by electrostatic interactions between charged residues at an interface between two globular domains of the motor protein. We have conducted experiments to test this model by studying the effect on packaging under applied load of site-directed changes altering these residues. We observe significant impairment of packaging activity including reductions in packaging rate, percent time packaging, and time active under high load. We show that these measured impairments correlate well with alterations in free energies associated with the conformational change predicted by molecular dynamics simulations.

Agulhas leakage as a key process in the modes of Quaternary climate changes.

PubMed

Caley, Thibaut; Giraudeau, Jacques; Malaizé, Bruno; Rossignol, Linda; Pierre, Catherine

2012-05-01

Heat and salt transfer from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean (Agulhas leakage) has an important effect on the global thermohaline circulation and climate. The lack of long transfer record prevents elucidation of its role on climate changes throughout the Quaternary. Here, we present a 1,350-ka accumulation rate record of the planktic foraminiferal species Globorotalia menardii. We demonstrate that, according to previous assumptions, the presence and reseeding of this fauna in the subtropical southeast Atlantic was driven by interocean exchange south of Africa. The Agulhas transfer strengthened at glacial ice-volume maxima for every glacial-interglacial transition, with maximum reinforcements organized according to a 400-ka periodicity. The long-term dynamics of Agulhas leakage may have played a crucial role in regulating meridional overturning circulation and global climate changes during the Mid-Brunhes event and the Mid-Pleistocene transition, and could also play an important role in the near future.

Modelling soil erosion in rainfed vineyards of northeast of Spain under climate change: effects of increasing rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Concepción Ramos, Maria

2017-04-01

This aim of the research was to analyse the effect of rainfall distribution and intensity on soil erosion in vines cultivated in the Mediterranean under the projected climate change scenario. The simulations were done at plot scale using the WEPP model. Climatic data for the period 1996-2014 were obtained from a meteorological station located 6km far from the plot. Soil characteristics such as texture, organic matter content, water retention capacity and infiltration were analysed. Runoff and soil losses were measured at four locations within the plot during 4 years and used to calibrate and validate the model. According to evidences recorded in the area, changes of rainfall intensities of 10 and 20% were considered for different rainfall distributions. The simulations were extended to the predicted changes for 2030, 2050 and 2070 based on the HadGEM2-CC under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 scenario. WEPP model provided a suitable prediction of the seasonal runoff and erosion as simulated relatively well the runoff and erosion of the most important events although some deficiencies were found for those events that produced low runoff. The simulation confirmed the contribution of the extreme events to annual erosion rates in 70%, on average. The model responded to changes in precipitation predicted under a climate change scenario with a decrease of runoff and erosion, and with higher erosion rates for an increase in rainfall intensity. A 10% increase may imply erosion rates up to 22% greater for the scenario 2030, and despite the predicted decrease in precipitation for the scenario 2050, soil losses may be up to 40% greater than at present for some rainfall distributions and intensity rainfall increases of 20%. These findings show the need of considering rainfall intensity as one of the main driven factors when soil erosion rates under climate change are predicted. Keywords: extreme events, rainfall distribution, runoff, soil losses, wines, WEPP.

Impact of glacial/interglacial sea level change on the ocean nitrogen cycle.

PubMed

Ren, Haojia; Sigman, Daniel M; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Anderson, Robert F; Chen, Min-Te; Ravelo, Ana Christina; Straub, Marietta; Wong, George T F; Haug, Gerald H

2017-08-15

The continental shelves are the most biologically dynamic regions of the ocean, and they are extensive worldwide, especially in the western North Pacific. Their area has varied dramatically over the glacial/interglacial cycles of the last million years, but the effects of this variation on ocean biological and chemical processes remain poorly understood. Conversion of nitrate to N 2 by denitrification in sediments accounts for half or more of the removal of biologically available nitrogen ("fixed N") from the ocean. The emergence of continental shelves during ice ages and their flooding during interglacials have been hypothesized to drive changes in sedimentary denitrification. Denitrification leads to the occurrence of phosphorus-bearing, N-depleted surface waters, which encourages N 2 fixation, the dominant N input to the ocean. An 860,000-y record of foraminifera shell-bound N isotopes from the South China Sea indicates that N 2 fixation covaried with sea level. The N 2 fixation changes are best explained as a response to changes in regional excess phosphorus supply due to sea level-driven variations in shallow sediment denitrification associated with the cyclic drowning and emergence of the continental shelves. This hypothesis is consistent with a glacial ocean that hosted globally lower rates of fixed N input and loss and a longer residence time for oceanic fixed N-a "sluggish" ocean N budget during ice ages. In addition, this work provides a clear sign of sea level-driven glacial/interglacial oscillations in biogeochemical fluxes at and near the ocean margins, with implications for coastal organisms and ecosystems.

Impact of glacial/interglacial sea level change on the ocean nitrogen cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Haojia; Sigman, Daniel M.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Anderson, Robert F.; Chen, Min-Te; Ravelo, Ana Christina; Straub, Marietta; Wong, George T. F.; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-08-01

The continental shelves are the most biologically dynamic regions of the ocean, and they are extensive worldwide, especially in the western North Pacific. Their area has varied dramatically over the glacial/interglacial cycles of the last million years, but the effects of this variation on ocean biological and chemical processes remain poorly understood. Conversion of nitrate to N2 by denitrification in sediments accounts for half or more of the removal of biologically available nitrogen (“fixed N”) from the ocean. The emergence of continental shelves during ice ages and their flooding during interglacials have been hypothesized to drive changes in sedimentary denitrification. Denitrification leads to the occurrence of phosphorus-bearing, N-depleted surface waters, which encourages N2 fixation, the dominant N input to the ocean. An 860,000-y record of foraminifera shell-bound N isotopes from the South China Sea indicates that N2 fixation covaried with sea level. The N2 fixation changes are best explained as a response to changes in regional excess phosphorus supply due to sea level-driven variations in shallow sediment denitrification associated with the cyclic drowning and emergence of the continental shelves. This hypothesis is consistent with a glacial ocean that hosted globally lower rates of fixed N input and loss and a longer residence time for oceanic fixed N—a “sluggish” ocean N budget during ice ages. In addition, this work provides a clear sign of sea level-driven glacial/interglacial oscillations in biogeochemical fluxes at and near the ocean margins, with implications for coastal organisms and ecosystems.

Impact of glacial/interglacial sea level change on the ocean nitrogen cycle

PubMed Central

Ren, Haojia; Sigman, Daniel M.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Anderson, Robert F.; Chen, Min-Te; Ravelo, Ana Christina; Straub, Marietta; Wong, George T. F.; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-01-01

The continental shelves are the most biologically dynamic regions of the ocean, and they are extensive worldwide, especially in the western North Pacific. Their area has varied dramatically over the glacial/interglacial cycles of the last million years, but the effects of this variation on ocean biological and chemical processes remain poorly understood. Conversion of nitrate to N2 by denitrification in sediments accounts for half or more of the removal of biologically available nitrogen (“fixed N”) from the ocean. The emergence of continental shelves during ice ages and their flooding during interglacials have been hypothesized to drive changes in sedimentary denitrification. Denitrification leads to the occurrence of phosphorus-bearing, N-depleted surface waters, which encourages N2 fixation, the dominant N input to the ocean. An 860,000-y record of foraminifera shell-bound N isotopes from the South China Sea indicates that N2 fixation covaried with sea level. The N2 fixation changes are best explained as a response to changes in regional excess phosphorus supply due to sea level-driven variations in shallow sediment denitrification associated with the cyclic drowning and emergence of the continental shelves. This hypothesis is consistent with a glacial ocean that hosted globally lower rates of fixed N input and loss and a longer residence time for oceanic fixed N—a “sluggish” ocean N budget during ice ages. In addition, this work provides a clear sign of sea level-driven glacial/interglacial oscillations in biogeochemical fluxes at and near the ocean margins, with implications for coastal organisms and ecosystems. PMID:28760968

Effects of Bedrock Landsliding on Cosmogenically Determined Erosion Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niemi, Nathan; Oskin, Mike; Burbank, Douglas; Heimsath, Arjun

2005-01-01

The successful quantification of long-term erosion rates underpins our understanding of landscape. formation, the topographic evolution of mountain ranges, and the mass balance within active orogens. The measurement of in situ-produced cosmogenic radionuclides (CRNs) in fluvial and alluvial sediments is perhaps the method with the greatest ability to provide such long-term erosion rates. In active orogens, however, deep-seated bedrock landsliding is an important erosional process, the effect of which on CRN-derived erosion rates is largely unquantified. We present a numerical simulation of cosmogenic nuclide production and distribution in landslide-dominated catchments to address the effect of bedrock landsliding on cosmogenic erosion rates in actively eroding landscapes. Results of the simulation indicate that the temporal stability of erosion rates determined from CRN concentrations in sediment decreases with increased ratios of landsliding to sediment detachment rates within a given catchment area, and that larger catchment areas must be sampled with increased frequency of landsliding in order to accurately evaluate long-term erosion rates. In addition, results of this simulation suggest that sediment sampling for CRNs is the appropriate method for determining long-term erosion rates in regions dominated by mass-wasting processes, while bedrock surface sampling for CRNs is generally an ineffective means of determining long-term erosion rates. Response times of CRN concentrations to changes in erosion rate indicate that climatically driven cycles of erosion may be detected relatively quickly after such changes occur, but that complete equilibration of CRN concentrations to new erosional conditions may take tens of thousands of years. Simulation results of CRN erosion rates are compared with a new, rich dataset of CRN concentrations from the Nepalese Himalaya, supporting conclusions drawn from the simulation.

Older drivers and rapid deceleration events: Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study.

PubMed

Keay, Lisa; Munoz, Beatriz; Duncan, Donald D; Hahn, Daniel; Baldwin, Kevin; Turano, Kathleen A; Munro, Cynthia A; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; West, Sheila K

2013-09-01

Drivers who rapidly change speed while driving may be more at risk for a crash. We sought to determine the relationship of demographic, vision, and cognitive variables with episodes of rapid decelerations during five days of normal driving in a cohort of older drivers. In the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study, 1425 older drivers aged 67-87 were recruited from the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration's rolls for licensees in Salisbury, Maryland. Participants had several measures of vision tested: visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, visual fields, and the attentional visual field. Participants were also tested for various domains of cognitive function including executive function, attention, psychomotor speed, and visual search. A custom created driving monitoring system (DMS) was used to capture rapid deceleration events (RDEs), defined as at least 350 milli-g deceleration, during a five day period of monitoring. The rate of RDE per mile driven was modeled using a negative binomial regression model with an offset of the logarithm of the number of miles driven. We found that 30% of older drivers had one or more RDE during a five day period, and of those, about 1/3 had four or more. The rate of RDE per mile driven was highest for those drivers driving<59 miles during the 5-day period of monitoring. However, older drivers with RDE's were more likely to have better scores in cognitive tests of psychomotor speed and visual search, and have faster brake reaction time. Further, greater average speed and maximum speed per driving segment was protective against RDE events. In conclusion, contrary to our hypothesis, older drivers who perform rapid decelerations tend to be more "fit", with better measures of vision and cognition compared to those who do not have events of rapid deceleration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Older Drivers and Rapid Deceleration Events: Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study

PubMed Central

Keay, Lisa; Munoz, Beatriz; Duncan, Donald D; Hahn, Daniel; Baldwin, Kevin; Turano, Kathleen A; Munro, Cynthia A; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; West, Sheila K

2012-01-01

Drivers who rapidly change speed while driving may be more at risk for a crash. We sought to determine the relationship of demographic, vision, and cognitive variables with episodes of rapid decelerations during five days of normal driving in a cohort of older drivers. In the Salisbury Eye Evaluation Driving Study, 1425 older drivers ages 67 to 87 were recruited from the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration’s rolls for licensees in Salisbury, Maryland. Participants had several measures of vision tested: visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, visual fields, and the attentional visual field. Participants were also tested for various domains of cognitive function including executive function, attention, psychomotor speed, and visual search. A custom created Driving Monitor System (DMS) was used to capture rapid deceleration events (RDE), defined as at least 350 milli-g deceleration, during a five day period of monitoring. The rate of RDE per mile driven was modeled using a negative binomial regression model with an offset of the logarithm of the number of miles driven. We found that 30% of older drivers had one or more RDE during a five day period, and of those, about 1/3 had four or more. The rate of RDE per mile driven was highest for those drivers driving <59 miles during the 5-day period of monitoring. However, older drivers with RDE’s were more likely to have better scores in cognitive tests of psychomotor speed and visual search, and have faster brake reaction time. Further, greater average speed and maximum speed per driving segment was protective against RDE events. In conclusion, contrary to our hypothesis, older drivers who perform rapid decelerations tend to be more “fit”, with better measures of vision and cognition compared to those who do not have events of rapid deceleration. PMID:22742775

The Potential of Knowing More: A Review of Data-Driven Urban Water Management.

PubMed

Eggimann, Sven; Mutzner, Lena; Wani, Omar; Schneider, Mariane Yvonne; Spuhler, Dorothee; Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Beutler, Philipp; Maurer, Max

2017-03-07

The promise of collecting and utilizing large amounts of data has never been greater in the history of urban water management (UWM). This paper reviews several data-driven approaches which play a key role in bringing forward a sea change. It critically investigates whether data-driven UWM offers a promising foundation for addressing current challenges and supporting fundamental changes in UWM. We discuss the examples of better rain-data management, urban pluvial flood-risk management and forecasting, drinking water and sewer network operation and management, integrated design and management, increasing water productivity, wastewater-based epidemiology and on-site water and wastewater treatment. The accumulated evidence from literature points toward a future UWM that offers significant potential benefits thanks to increased collection and utilization of data. The findings show that data-driven UWM allows us to develop and apply novel methods, to optimize the efficiency of the current network-based approach, and to extend functionality of today's systems. However, generic challenges related to data-driven approaches (e.g., data processing, data availability, data quality, data costs) and the specific challenges of data-driven UWM need to be addressed, namely data access and ownership, current engineering practices and the difficulty of assessing the cost benefits of data-driven UWM.

A historical perspective on soil organic carbon in Mediterranean cropland (Spain, 1900-2008).

PubMed

Aguilera, Eduardo; Guzmán, Gloria I; Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Infante-Amate, Juan; García-Ruiz, Roberto; Carranza-Gallego, Guiomar; Soto, David; González de Molina, Manuel

2018-04-15

Soil organic carbon (SOC) management is key for soil fertility and for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, particularly in desertification-prone areas such as Mediterranean croplands. Industrialization and global change processes affect SOC dynamics in multiple, often opposing, ways. Here we present a detailed SOC balance in Spanish cropland from 1900 to 2008, as a model of a Mediterranean, industrialized agriculture. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and soil C inputs were estimated based on yield and management data. Changes in SOC stocks were modeled using HSOC, a simple model with one inert and two active C pools, which combines RothC model parameters with humification coefficients. Crop yields increased by 227% during the studied period, but total C exported from the agroecosystem only increased by 73%, total NPP by 30%, and soil C inputs by 20%. There was a continued decline in SOC during the 20th century, and cropland SOC levels in 2008 were 17% below their 1933 peak. SOC trends were driven by historical changes in land uses, management practices and climate. Cropland expansion was the main driver of SOC loss until mid-20th century, followed by the decline in soil C inputs during the fast agricultural industrialization starting in the 1950s, which reduced harvest indices and weed biomass production, particularly in woody cropping systems. C inputs started recovering in the 1980s, mainly through increasing crop residue return. The upward trend in SOC mineralization rates was an increasingly important driver of SOC losses, triggered by irrigation expansion, soil cover loss and climate change-driven temperature rise. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Berkowitz, Paul

2015-01-01

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Doing Science that Matters to Address India's Water Crisis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.

2017-12-01

Addressing water security in developing regions involves predicting water availability under unprecedented rates of population and economic growth. India is one of the most water stressed countries in the world. Despite appreciable increases in funding for water research, high quality science that is usable by stakeholders remains elusive. The absence of usable research, has been driven by notions of what is publishable in the developed world. This can be attributed to the absence of problem driven research on questions that actually matter to stakeholders, unwillingness to transcend disciplinary boundaries and the demise of a field-work research culture in favour of computer simulation. Yet the combination of rapid change, inadequate data and human modifications to watersheds poses a challenge, as researchers face a poorly constrained water resources modelling problem. Instead, what India and indeed all developing regions need is to approach the problem from first principles, identifying the most critical knowledge gaps, then prioritizing data collection using novel sensing and modelling approaches to address them. This might also necessitate consideration of underlying social and governance drivers of hydrologic change. Using examples from research in the Cauvery Basin, a highly contentious inter-state river basin, I offer some insights into framing "use-inspired" research agenda and show how the research generates not just new scientific insights but may be translated into practice.

Northern Peatland Shifts Under Changing Climate and Their Impact on Permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shur, Y.; Jorgenson, T.; Kanevskiy, M. Z.

2014-12-01

Formation of peatlands depends primarily on climate and its interactions with hydrology, soil thermal regimes, plant composition, and nutrients. A water balance with precipitation exceeding evaporation is necessary for their formation. The rate of peat accumulation also greatly depends on thermal resources. The prominent impact of the water balance and temperature on peatland formation is evident in the West Siberia Lowland. The rate of peat accumulation steadily increases from arctic tundra to moss tundra, to forest tundra, to northern taiga, and to southern taiga. This increase is a result in increase in air temperature and length of the growing season because all of these zones have water balance favorable for peat formation. Further to south, evaporation prevails over precipitation and peat formation occurs only in isolated areas. Climate change will redefine geographical distribution of climatic and vegetation zones. It is predicted that in arctic and subarctic regions the difference between precipitation and evaporation will increase and as a result these regions will remain favorable to peat accumulation. With increase of thermal resources, the rate of peat accumulation will also increase. The Alaska Arctic Coastal Plain is of a special interest because it has thousands of shallow lakes, which due to warming climate would shift from open waterbodies to peatlands through shoreline paludification and infilling. The accumulation of organic matter will likely turn open water into shore fens and bogs, and eventually to peat plateaus, as is occurring in many boreal landscapes. Expected impact on permafrost in arctic and subarctic regions will include rise of the permafrost table, thickening of the ice-rich intermediate layer with ataxitic (suspended) cryostructure, and replacement of frost boils with earth hummocks. In the contemporary continuous permafrost zone, permafrost formed as climate-driven will be transformed into climate-driven ecosystem protected. Sphagnum mosses, which grow better under warm climates, is a dominant factor in this transformation. Terrestrialization of numerous shallow lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska will lower permafrost temperatures beneath them and in surrounding areas.

Nine-Month Outcomes of the DURABILITY Iliac Study on Self-Expanding Stents for Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Faries, Peter; Jaff, Michael; Peeters, Patrick; Khatib, Yazan; Roberts, David; Bosiers, Marc; Malik, Rajesh; Ravin, Reid; Rundback, John

2018-04-17

The DURABILITY Iliac clinical study evaluated the safety and effectiveness of two nitinol self-expanding stents for the treatment of atherosclerotic common and external iliac artery lesions up to 10 cm in length and >50% stenosis in subjects with Rutherford Classification peripheral arterial disease stages 2-4. DURABILITY Iliac was a prospective, multicenter, core lab adjudicated, nonrandomized clinical study enrolling 75 subjects from 15 sites in the United States and Europe. Clinical follow-up visits were at 30 days, 9 months, and 1, 2, and 3 years post procedure. The primary outcome measured was the major adverse event rate (MAE) at 9 months, defined as a composite of periprocedural death, in-hospital myocardial infarction (MI), clinically-driven target lesion revascularization (CD-TLR), and amputation of the treated limb through 9 months post-procedure. Secondary outcomes included primary patency rate at 9 months, clinically-driven target vessel revascularization (CD-TVR), change in ankle-brachial index, and change in Walking Impairment Questionnaire score at 30 days and 9 months. Device success was defined as the ability to deploy the stent as intended at the treatment site. The MAE rate at 9 months was 1.3% (1/75), with 1 subject experiencing a CD-TLR. No periprocedural deaths, myocardial infarctions, or amputations were reported. Primacy patency at 9 months was 95.8%. Freedom from CD-TVR was 98.6% at 9 months. Subjects improved in Walking Impairment Questionnaire scores for all categories (walking impairment, walking speed, walking distance, and stair climbing) at the 30-day and 9-month visit. Device success was 100%. The 9-month results of the DURABILITY Iliac study demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of 2 nitinol self-expanding stents for the treatment of atherosclerotic lesions of the common and external iliac arteries. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Electrophoretic interactions and aggregation of colloidal biological particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Robert H.; Nichols, Scott C.; Loewenberg, Michael; Todd, Paul

1994-01-01

The separation of cells or particles from solution has traditionally been accomplished with centrifuges or by sedimentation; however, many particles have specific densities close to unity, making buoyancy-driven motion slow or negligible, but most cells and particles carry surface charges, making them ideal for electrophoretic separation. Both buoyancy-driven and electrophoretic separation may be influenced by hydrodynamic interactions and aggregation of neighboring particles. Aggregation by electrophoresis was analyzed for two non-Brownian particles with different zeta potentials and thin double layers migrating through a viscous fluid. The results indicate that the initial rate of electrophoretically-driven aggregation may exceed that of buoyancy-driven aggregation, even under conditions in which buoyancy-driven relative motion of noninteracting particles is dominant.

Conformational Changes Represent the Rate-Limiting Step in the Transport Cycle of Maize SUCROSE TRANSPORTER1[C][W

PubMed Central

Derrer, Carmen; Wittek, Anke; Bamberg, Ernst; Carpaneto, Armando; Dreyer, Ingo; Geiger, Dietmar

2013-01-01

Proton-driven Suc transporters allow phloem cells of higher plants to accumulate Suc to more than 1 M, which is up to ∼1000-fold higher than in the surrounding extracellular space. The carrier protein can accomplish this task only because proton and Suc transport are tightly coupled. This study provides insights into this coupling by resolving the first step in the transport cycle of the Suc transporter SUT1 from maize (Zea mays). Voltage clamp fluorometry measurements combining electrophysiological techniques with fluorescence-based methods enable the visualization of conformational changes of SUT1 expressed in Xenopus laevis oocytes. Using the Suc derivate sucralose, binding of which hinders conformational changes of SUT1, the association of protons to the carrier could be dissected from transport-associated movements of the protein. These combined approaches enabled us to resolve the binding of protons to the carrier and its interrelationship with the alternating movement of the protein. The data indicate that the rate-limiting step of the reaction cycle is determined by the accessibility of the proton binding site. This, in turn, is determined by the conformational change of the SUT1 protein, alternately exposing the binding pockets to the inward and to the outward face of the membrane. PMID:23964025

Global Ocean Evaporation Increases Since 1960 in Climate Reanalyses: How Accurate Are They?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2016-12-01

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. The question we address is whether by using conventional observations alone, the problematic stepwise changes to model bias correction imposed by the continually changing satellite data record can be avoided and a more accurate estimate of evaporation changes obtained over the past six decades—including the satellite era from 1979 to the present. Three climate reanalyses are used, the NOAA ESRL 20CR V2, the ECMWF ERA-20C, and the JRA-55C. In contrast to conventional reanalyses, reduced-observational reanalyses are run with fewer constraints with more temporally homogenous records- SSTs, sea-ice, and radiative forcing (i.e. AMIPs) and additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations. An ensemble of AMIP-style experiments provides an important comparison. Though limited in temporal extent, state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the SeaFlux project and 10m neutral winds from Remote Sensing Systems analysis of passive microwave measurements represent observationally driven estimates of evaporation and near-surface wind speed. ENSO-related changes in evaporation dominate interannual timescales, though over multi-decadal periods we find increasing evaporation trends approaching the Clausius-Clapeyron rate of 6% per degree SST rise. This contrasts with the more muted changes in AMIP experiments. Near-surface relative humidity and stability changes generally act to counterbalance the effects of SST alone, but wind speed changes are a chief driver of the evaporation changes. Multi-decadal signals related to Pacific and Atlantic climate variability are prominent; however, there are notable signatures of wind data issues—particularly over the Southern Indian Ocean. Though the passive microwave record extends only from 1988, associated wind speed measurements confirm the basic structure of wind-driven evaporation trends in recent decades.

Climate-forced variability of suboxia and associated N-loses in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Gruber, N.; Long, M. C.; Vogt, M.

2017-12-01

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification. In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here, we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model over the period 1960 to 2009 to show that Pacific ODZ structures and their associated rates of N-loss are subject to strong climate forced variability and change. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large interannual variations in the rate of water column denitrification such that mature La Niña conditions exhibit peak denitrification rates that are up to 70% higher than the mean rates, and vice versa during El Niños. At the same time, we simulate large decadal trends in the rate of Pacific N-loss, which decreases by 10 Tg y-1 from the 1960s to the 1980s and subsequently increases by 30 Tg y-1 towards 2009. We demonstrate that this large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export. Finally, we show that the decadal trends in denitrification are recorded by the isotopic signature of particulate organic nitrogen in the ETP but that the interpretation of the signals is non trivial, reflecting both physical and biogeochemical changes as well as contamination by atmospheric pollutants.

Sea Level Driven Marsh Expansion in a Coupled Model of Marsh Erosion, Forest Retreat, and Human Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Walters, D. C.; Reay, W.; Carr, J.

2016-12-01

Salt marsh ecosystem services depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here, we present a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands, and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how connectivity between adjacent ecosystems influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that ecogeomorphic feedbacks tend to stabilize soil elevations relative to sea level rise so that changes in marsh size are determined mostly by the competition between ecological transitions at the upland boundary, and physical erosion at the seaward boundary. Salt marsh loss and natural flood protection is nearly inevitable under rapid sea level rise rates where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit marsh migration into uplands. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. Together, this behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise, and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention. Analysis of 19th century maps and modern photographs from the Chesapeake Bay region confirm that migration rates are more sensitive to sea level rise than erosion rate, and indicate that transgression has thus far allowed marshes to survive the fastest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast. This work suggests that the flux of organisms and sediment across adjacent ecosystems leads to an increase in system resilience that could not be inferred from studies that consider individual components of landscape change.

Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2011-01-01

Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

The German East-West Mortality Difference: Two Crossovers Driven by Smoking.

PubMed

Vogt, Tobias; van Raalte, Alyson; Grigoriev, Pavel; Myrskylä, Mikko

2017-06-01

Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East Germany than in West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German reunification. The convergence was particularly strong for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-69 now have lower mortality despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research has shown that lower smoking rates among East German female cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s were a major contributor to this crossover. However, after 1990, smoking behavior changed dramatically, with higher smoking intensity observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differences and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Mortality forecasting methods that do not account for smoking would, perhaps misleadingly, forecast a growing mortality advantage for East German women. Experience from other countries shows that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming an example warning of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms.

Contribution to irradiation creep arising from gas-driven bubbles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woo, C.H.; Garner, F.A.

1998-03-01

In a previous paper the relationship was defined between void swelling and irradiation creep arising from the interaction of the SIPA and SIG creep-driven deformation and swelling-driven deformation was highly interactive in nature, and that the two contributions could not be independently calculated and then considered as directly additive. This model could be used to explain the recent experimental observation that the creep-swelling coupling coefficient was not a constant as previously assumed, but declined continuously as the swelling rate increased. Such a model thereby explained the creep-disappearance and creep-damping anomalies observed in conditions where significant void swelling occurred before substantialmore » creep deformation developed. At lower irradiation temperatures and high helium/hydrogen generation rates, such as found in light water cooled reactors and some fusion concepts, gas-filled cavities that have not yet exceeded the critical radius for bubble-void conversion should also exert an influence on irradiation creep. In this paper the original concept is adapted to include such conditions, and its predictions then compared with available data. It is shown that a measurable increase in the creep rate is expected compared to the rate found in low gas-generating environments. The creep rate is directly related to the gas generation rate and thereby to the neutron flux and spectrum.« less

Columnar mesophases of hexabenzocoronene derivatives. II. Charge carrier mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkpatrick, James; Marcon, Valentina; Kremer, Kurt; Nelson, Jenny; Andrienko, Denis

2008-09-01

Combining atomistic molecular dynamic simulations, Marcus-Hush theory description of charge transport rates, and master equation description of charge dynamics, we correlate the temperature-driven change of the mesophase structure with the change of charge carrier mobilities in columnar phases of hexabenzocoronene derivatives. The time dependence of fluctuations in transfer integrals shows that static disorder is predominant in determining charge transport characteristics. Both site energies and transfer integrals are distributed because of disorder in the molecular arrangement. It is shown that the contributions to the site energies from polarization and electrostatic effects are of opposite sign for positive charges. We look at three mesophases of hexabenzocoronene: herringbone, discotic, and columnar disordered. All results are compared to time resolved microwave conductivity data and show excellent agreement with no fitting parameters.

Columnar mesophases of hexabenzocoronene derivatives. II. Charge carrier mobility.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, James; Marcon, Valentina; Kremer, Kurt; Nelson, Jenny; Andrienko, Denis

2008-09-07

Combining atomistic molecular dynamic simulations, Marcus-Hush theory description of charge transport rates, and master equation description of charge dynamics, we correlate the temperature-driven change of the mesophase structure with the change of charge carrier mobilities in columnar phases of hexabenzocoronene derivatives. The time dependence of fluctuations in transfer integrals shows that static disorder is predominant in determining charge transport characteristics. Both site energies and transfer integrals are distributed because of disorder in the molecular arrangement. It is shown that the contributions to the site energies from polarization and electrostatic effects are of opposite sign for positive charges. We look at three mesophases of hexabenzocoronene: herringbone, discotic, and columnar disordered. All results are compared to time resolved microwave conductivity data and show excellent agreement with no fitting parameters.

Omics strategies for revealing Yersinia pestis virulence

PubMed Central

Yang, Ruifu; Du, Zongmin; Han, Yanping; Zhou, Lei; Song, Yajun; Zhou, Dongsheng; Cui, Yujun

2012-01-01

Omics has remarkably changed the way we investigate and understand life. Omics differs from traditional hypothesis-driven research because it is a discovery-driven approach. Mass datasets produced from omics-based studies require experts from different fields to reveal the salient features behind these data. In this review, we summarize omics-driven studies to reveal the virulence features of Yersinia pestis through genomics, trascriptomics, proteomics, interactomics, etc. These studies serve as foundations for further hypothesis-driven research and help us gain insight into Y. pestis pathogenesis. PMID:23248778

Rejection of Unfair Offers Can Be Driven by Negative Emotions, Evidence from Modified Ultimatum Games with Anonymity

PubMed Central

Ma, Ning; Li, Nan; He, Xiao-Song; Sun, De-Lin; Zhang, Xiaochu; Zhang, Da-Ren

2012-01-01

The rejection of unfair offers can be affected by both negative emotions (e.g. anger and moral disgust) and deliberate cognitive processing of behavioral consequences (e.g. concerns of maintaining social fairness and protecting personal reputation). However, whether negative emotions are sufficient to motivate this behavior is still controversial. With modified ultimatum games, a recent study (Yamagishi T, et al. (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106∶11520–11523) found that people reject unfair offers even when this behavior increases inequity, and even when they could not communicate to the proposers. Yamagishi suggested that rejection of unfair offers could occurr without people’s concerning of maintaining social fairness, and could be driven by negative emotions. However, as anonymity was not sufficiently guaranteed in Yamagishi’s study, the rejection rates in their experiments may have been influenced by people’s concerns of protecting personal reputation (reputational concerns) in addition to negative emotions; thus, it was unclear whether the rejection was driven by negative emotions, or by reputational concerns, or both. In the present study, with specific methods to ensure anonymity, the effect of reputational concerns was successfully ruled out. We found that in a private situation in which rejection could not be driven by reputational concerns, the rejection rates of unfair offers were significantly larger than zero, and in public situations in which rejection rates could be influenced by both negative emotions and reputational concerns, rejection rates were significantly higher than that in the private situation. These results, together with Yamagishi’s findings, provided more complete evidence suggesting (a) that the rejection of unfair offers can be driven by negative emotions and (b) that deliberate cognitive processing of the consequences of the behavior can increase the rejection rate, which may benefit social cooperation. PMID:22761845

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Comparison of success rates of orthodontic mini-screws by the insertion method.

PubMed

Kim, Jung Suk; Choi, Seong Hwan; Cha, Sang Kwon; Kim, Jang Han; Lee, Hwa Jin; Yeom, Sang Seon; Hwang, Chung Ju

2012-10-01

The aim of this study was to compare the success rates of the manual and motor-driven mini-screw insertion methods according to age, gender, length of mini-screws, and insertion sites. We retrospectively reviewed 429 orthodontic mini-screw placements in 286 patients (102 in men and 327 in women) between 2005 and 2010 at private practice. Age, gender, mini-screw length, and insertion site were cross-tabulated against the insertion methods. The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test was performed to compare the success rates of the 2 insertion methods. The motor-driven method was used for 228 mini-screws and the manual method for the remaining 201 mini-screws. The success rates were similar in both men and women irrespective of the insertion method used. With respect to mini-screw length, no difference in success rates was found between motor and hand drivers for the 6-mm-long mini-screws (68.1% and 69.5% with the engine driver and hand driver, respectively). However, the 8-mm-long mini-screws exhibited significantly higher success rates (90.4%, p < 0.01) than did the 6-mm-long mini-screws when placed with the engine driver. The overall success rate was also significantly higher in the maxilla (p < 0.05) when the engine driver was used. Success rates were similar among all age groups regardless of the insertion method used. Taken together, the motor-driven insertion method can be helpful to get a higher success rate of orthodontic mini-screw placement.

How spatial variation in areal extent and configuration of labile vegetation states affect the riparian bird community in Arctic tundra.

PubMed

Henden, John-André; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Ims, Rolf A; Langeland, Knut

2013-01-01

The Arctic tundra is currently experiencing an unprecedented combination of climate change, change in grazing pressure by large herbivores and growing human activity. Thickets of tall shrubs represent a conspicuous vegetation state in northern and temperate ecosystems, where it serves important ecological functions, including habitat for wildlife. Thickets are however labile, as tall shrubs respond rapidly to both abiotic and biotic environmental drivers. Our aim was to assess how large-scale spatial variation in willow thicket areal extent, configuration and habitat structure affected bird abundance, occupancy rates and species richness so as to provide an empirical basis for predicting the outcome of environmental change for riparian tundra bird communities. Based on a 4-year count data series, obtained through a large-scale study design in low arctic tundra in northern Norway, statistical hierarchical community models were deployed to assess relations between habitat configuration and bird species occupancy and community richness. We found that species abundance, occupancy and richness were greatly affected by willow areal extent and configuration, habitat features likely to be affected by intense ungulate browsing as well as climate warming. In sum, total species richness was maximized in large and tall willow patches of small to intermediate degree of fragmentation. These community effects were mainly driven by responses in the occupancy rates of species depending on tall willows for foraging and breeding, while species favouring other vegetation states were not affected. In light of the predicted climate driven willow shrub encroachment in riparian tundra habitats, our study predicts that many bird species would increase in abundance, and that the bird community as a whole could become enriched. Conversely, in tundra regions where overabundance of large herbivores leads to decreased areal extent, reduced height and increased fragmentation of willow thickets, bird community richness and species-specific abundance are likely to be significantly reduced.

Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Rolf; Grooß, Jens-Uwe

2014-04-01

Lu's "cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory" is based on the assumption that the CRE reaction of halogenated molecules (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCl, ClONO2) adsorbed or trapped in polar stratospheric clouds in the winter polar stratosphere is the key step in forming photoactive halogen species that are the cause of the springtime ozone hole. This theory has been extended to a warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. In this comment, we discuss the chemical and physical foundations of these theories and the conclusions derived from the theories. First, it is unclear whether the loss rates of halogenated molecules induced by dissociative electron attachment (DEA) observed in the laboratory can also be interpreted as atmospheric loss rates, but even if this were the case, the impact of DEA-induced reactions on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere is limited. Second, we falsify several conclusions that are reported on the basis of the CRE theory: There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1-2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20-25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error. There are also conclusions about the future development of sea ice and global sea level which are fundamentally flawed because Archimedes' principle is neglected. Many elements of the CRE theory are based solely on correlations between certain datasets which are no substitute for providing physical and chemical mechanisms causing a particular behavior noticeable in observations. In summary, the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent, alternative mechanism for polar stratospheric ozone loss and the conclusions on recent and future surface temperature and global sea level change do not have a physical basis.

How Spatial Variation in Areal Extent and Configuration of Labile Vegetation States Affect the Riparian Bird Community in Arctic Tundra

PubMed Central

Henden, John-André; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Ims, Rolf A.; Langeland, Knut

2013-01-01

The Arctic tundra is currently experiencing an unprecedented combination of climate change, change in grazing pressure by large herbivores and growing human activity. Thickets of tall shrubs represent a conspicuous vegetation state in northern and temperate ecosystems, where it serves important ecological functions, including habitat for wildlife. Thickets are however labile, as tall shrubs respond rapidly to both abiotic and biotic environmental drivers. Our aim was to assess how large-scale spatial variation in willow thicket areal extent, configuration and habitat structure affected bird abundance, occupancy rates and species richness so as to provide an empirical basis for predicting the outcome of environmental change for riparian tundra bird communities. Based on a 4-year count data series, obtained through a large-scale study design in low arctic tundra in northern Norway, statistical hierarchical community models were deployed to assess relations between habitat configuration and bird species occupancy and community richness. We found that species abundance, occupancy and richness were greatly affected by willow areal extent and configuration, habitat features likely to be affected by intense ungulate browsing as well as climate warming. In sum, total species richness was maximized in large and tall willow patches of small to intermediate degree of fragmentation. These community effects were mainly driven by responses in the occupancy rates of species depending on tall willows for foraging and breeding, while species favouring other vegetation states were not affected. In light of the predicted climate driven willow shrub encroachment in riparian tundra habitats, our study predicts that many bird species would increase in abundance, and that the bird community as a whole could become enriched. Conversely, in tundra regions where overabundance of large herbivores leads to decreased areal extent, reduced height and increased fragmentation of willow thickets, bird community richness and species-specific abundance are likely to be significantly reduced. PMID:23691020

The seasonal cycle of pCO2 and CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Precious Mongwe, N.; Vichi, Marcello; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.

2018-05-01

The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as a major sink of CO2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation products for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is a rigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine the competing roles of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as drivers of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 in the Southern Ocean to explain the mechanistic basis for the seasonal biases in CMIP5 models. We find that despite significant differences in the spatial characteristics of the mean annual fluxes, the intra-model homogeneity in the seasonal cycle of FCO2 is greater than observational products. FCO2 biases in CMIP5 models can be grouped into two main categories, i.e., group-SST and group-DIC. Group-SST models show an exaggeration of the seasonal rates of change of sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and spring during the cooling and warming peaks. These higher-than-observed rates of change of SST tip the control of the seasonal cycle of pCO2 and FCO2 towards SST and result in a divergence between the observed and modeled seasonal cycles, particularly in the Sub-Antarctic Zone. While almost all analyzed models (9 out of 10) show these SST-driven biases, 3 out of 10 (namely NorESM1-ME, HadGEM-ES and MPI-ESM, collectively the group-DIC models) compensate for the solubility bias because of their overly exaggerated primary production, such that biologically driven DIC changes mainly regulate the seasonal cycle of FCO2.

Deep Change: Cases and Commentary on Schools and Programs of Successful Reform in High Stakes States. Research in Curriculum and Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ponder, Gerald, Ed.; Strahan, David, Ed.

2005-01-01

This book presents cases of schools (Part One) and programs at the district level and beyond (Part Two) in which reform, while driven by high-stakes accountability, became larger and deeper through data-driven dialogue, culture change, organizational learning, and other elements of high performing cultures. Commentaries on cross-case patterns by…

Adaptation to Externally Driven Change: The Impact of Political Change on Job Satisfaction in the Public Sector

PubMed Central

Tabvuma, Vurain; Bui, Hong T M; Homberg, Fabian

2014-01-01

This article uses a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the adaptation of job satisfaction to externally driven political change in the public sector. This is important because democratic government bureaucracies often experience changes in leadership after elections. The analyses are based on data drawn from a large longitudinal data set, the British Household Panel Survey. Findings indicate that the impact of political elections is largely weak and temporary and is only present for men. For women, the internal processes of the organization tend to be more important. These findings suggest that changes in political leadership may not be associated with fundamental changes in policy. PMID:25598554

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Christopher A.; Collatz, G. James; Masek, Jeffrey; Goward, Samuel N.

2012-01-01

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Geophysical monitoring and reactive transport modeling of ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation is the basis for a promising in-situ remediation method for sequestration of divalent radionuclide and trace metal ions. It has also been proposed for use in geotechnical engineering for soil strengthening applications. Monitoring the occurrence, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution of calcium carbonate precipitation in the subsurface is critical for evaluating the performance of this technology and for developing the predictive models needed for engineering application. In this study, we conducted laboratory column experiments using natural sediment and groundwater to evaluate the utility of geophysical (complex resistivity and seismic) sensing methods, dynamic synchrotron x-ray computed tomography (micro-CT), and reactive transport modeling for tracking ureolytically-driven calcium carbonate precipitation processes under site relevant conditions. Reactive transport modeling with TOUGHREACT successfully simulated the changes of the major chemical components during urea hydrolysis. Even at the relatively low level of urea hydrolysis observed in the experiments, the simulations predicted an enhanced calcium carbonate precipitation rate that was 3-4 times greater than the baseline level. Reactive transport modeling results, geophysical monitoring data and micro-CT imaging correlated well with reaction processes validated by geochemical data. In particular, increases in ionic strength of the pore fluid during urea hydrolysis predicted by geochemical modeling were successfully captured by electrical conductivity measurements and confirmed by geochemical data. The low level of urea hydrolysis and calcium carbonate precipitation suggested by the model and geochemical data was corroborated by minor changes in seismic P-wave velocity measurements and micro-CT imaging; the latter provided direct evidence of sparsely distributed calcium carbonate precipitation. Ion exchange processes promoted through NH4+ production during urea hydrolysis were incorporated in the model and captured critical changes in the major metal species. The electrical phase increases were potentially due to ion exchange processes that modified charge structure at mineral/water interfaces. Our study revealed the potential of geophysical monitoring for geochemical changes during urea hydrolysis and the advantages of combining multiple approaches to understand complex biogeochemical processes in the subsurface. PMID:21943229

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

New Roads for Patron-Driven E-Books: Collection Development and Technical Services Implications of a Patron-Driven Acquisitions Pilot at Rutgers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Fino, Melissa; Lo, Mei Ling

2011-01-01

Collection development librarians have long struggled to meet user demands for new titles. Too often, required resources are not purchased, whereas some purchased resources do not circulate. E-books selected through patron-driven plans are a solution but present new challenges for both selectors and catalogers. Radical changes to traditional…

How Complex, Probable, and Predictable is Genetically Driven Red Queen Chaos?

PubMed

Duarte, Jorge; Rodrigues, Carla; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

2015-12-01

Coevolution between two antagonistic species has been widely studied theoretically for both ecologically- and genetically-driven Red Queen dynamics. A typical outcome of these systems is an oscillatory behavior causing an endless series of one species adaptation and others counter-adaptation. More recently, a mathematical model combining a three-species food chain system with an adaptive dynamics approach revealed genetically driven chaotic Red Queen coevolution. In the present article, we analyze this mathematical model mainly focusing on the impact of species rates of evolution (mutation rates) in the dynamics. Firstly, we analytically proof the boundedness of the trajectories of the chaotic attractor. The complexity of the coupling between the dynamical variables is quantified using observability indices. By using symbolic dynamics theory, we quantify the complexity of genetically driven Red Queen chaos computing the topological entropy of existing one-dimensional iterated maps using Markov partitions. Co-dimensional two bifurcation diagrams are also built from the period ordering of the orbits of the maps. Then, we study the predictability of the Red Queen chaos, found in narrow regions of mutation rates. To extend the previous analyses, we also computed the likeliness of finding chaos in a given region of the parameter space varying other model parameters simultaneously. Such analyses allowed us to compute a mean predictability measure for the system in the explored region of the parameter space. We found that genetically driven Red Queen chaos, although being restricted to small regions of the analyzed parameter space, might be highly unpredictable.

Damping-free collective oscillations of a driven two-component Bose gas in optical lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shchedrin, Gavriil; Jaschke, Daniel; Carr, Lincoln D.

2018-04-01

We explore the quantum many-body physics of a driven Bose-Einstein condensate in optical lattices. The laser field induces a gap in the generalized Bogoliubov spectrum proportional to the effective Rabi frequency. The lowest-lying modes in a driven condensate are characterized by zero group velocity and nonzero current. Thus, the laser field induces roton modes, which carry interaction in a driven condensate. We show that collective excitations below the energy of the laser-induced gap remain undamped, while above the gap they are characterized by a significantly suppressed Landau damping rate.

Physiological response of the cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus to thermal stress and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Gori, Andrea; Ferrier-Pagès, Christine; Hennige, Sebastian J; Murray, Fiona; Rottier, Cécile; Wicks, Laura C; Roberts, J Murray

2016-01-01

Rising temperatures and ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions threaten both tropical and temperate corals. However, the synergistic effect of these stressors on coral physiology is still poorly understood, in particular for cold-water corals. This study assessed changes in key physiological parameters (calcification, respiration and ammonium excretion) of the widespread cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus maintained for ∼8 months at two temperatures (ambient 12 °C and elevated 15 °C) and two pCO2 conditions (ambient 390 ppm and elevated 750 ppm). At ambient temperatures no change in instantaneous calcification, respiration or ammonium excretion rates was observed at either pCO2 levels. Conversely, elevated temperature (15 °C) significantly reduced calcification rates, and combined elevated temperature and pCO2 significantly reduced respiration rates. Changes in the ratio of respired oxygen to excreted nitrogen (O:N), which provides information on the main sources of energy being metabolized, indicated a shift from mixed use of protein and carbohydrate/lipid as metabolic substrates under control conditions, to less efficient protein-dominated catabolism under both stressors. Overall, this study shows that the physiology of D. dianthus is more sensitive to thermal than pCO2 stress, and that the predicted combination of rising temperatures and ocean acidification in the coming decades may severely impact this cold-water coral species.

Power coupling mode transitions induced by tailored voltage waveforms in capacitive oxygen discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derzsi, Aranka; Bruneau, Bastien; Gibson, Andrew Robert; Johnson, Erik; O'Connell, Deborah; Gans, Timo; Booth, Jean-Paul; Donkó, Zoltán

2017-03-01

Low-pressure capacitively coupled radio frequency discharges operated in O2 and driven by tailored voltage waveforms are investigated experimentally and by means of kinetic simulations. Pulse-type (peaks/valleys) and sawtooth-type voltage waveforms that consist of up to four consecutive harmonics of the fundamental frequency are used to study the amplitude asymmetry effect as well as the slope asymmetry effect at different fundamental frequencies (5, 10, and 15 MHz) and at different pressures (50-700 mTorr). Values of the DC self-bias determined experimentally and spatio-temporal excitation rates derived from phase resolved optical emission spectroscopy measurements are compared with particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collisions simulations. The spatio-temporal distributions of the excitation rate obtained from experiments are well reproduced by the simulations. Transitions of the discharge electron heating mode from the drift-ambipolar mode to the α-mode are induced by changing the number of consecutive harmonics included in the driving voltage waveform or by changing the gas pressure. Changing the number of harmonics in the waveform has a strong effect on the electronegativity of the discharge, on the generation of the DC self-bias and on the control of ion properties at the electrodes, both for pulse-type, as well as sawtooth-type driving voltage waveforms The effect of the surface quenching rate of oxygen singlet delta metastable molecules on the spatio-temporal excitation patterns is also investigated.

Ecology, economy and management of an agroindustrial frontier landscape in the southeast Amazon

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo M.; Coe, Michael T.; DeFries, Ruth; Azevedo, Andrea A.

2013-01-01

The papers in this special issue address a major challenge facing our society: feeding a population that is simultaneously growing and increasing its per capita food consumption, while preventing widespread ecological and social impoverishment in the tropics. By focusing mostly on the Amazon's most dynamic agricultural frontier, Mato Grosso, they collectively clarify some key elements of achieving more sustainable agriculture. First, stakeholders in commodity-driven agricultural Amazonian frontiers respond rapidly to multiple forces, including global markets, international pressures for sustainably produced commodities and national-, state- and municipality-level policies. These forces can encourage or discourage deforestation rate changes within a short time-period. Second, agricultural frontiers are linked systems, land-use change is linked with regional climate, forest fires, water quality and stream discharge, which in turn are linked with the well-being of human populations. Thus, land-use practices at the farm level have ecological and social repercussions far removed from it. Third, policies need to consider the full socio-economic system to identify the efficacy and consequences of possible land management strategies. Monitoring to devise suitable management approaches depends not only on tracking land-use change, but also on monitoring the regional ecological and social consequences. Mato Grosso's achievements in reducing deforestation are impressive, yet they are also fragile. The ecological and social consequences and the successes and failures of management in this region can serve as an example of possible trajectories for other commodity-driven tropical agricultural frontiers. PMID:23610163

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Wilson, Ryan R; Rode, Karyn D; Runge, Michael C; Stern, Harry L

2017-10-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity ( K ). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K , and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K . Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications . We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.; Stern, Harry

2017-01-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63–0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79–0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate – which could be 0 in some situations – accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate.Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation goals. In our example application to polar bears experiencing sea-ice loss, the goals are to maintain population viability while providing continued opportunities for subsistence harvest. Our approach may be relevant to other species for which near-term management is focused on human factors that directly influence population dynamics within the broader context of climate-induced habitat degradation.

Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing to Implement Change.

PubMed

Sayed, Ellen N; Laws, Sa'ad; Uthman, Basim

2017-01-01

Academic medical libraries have responded to changes in technology, evolving professional roles, reduced budgets, and declining traditional services. Libraries that have taken a proactive role to change have seen their librarians emerge as collaborators and partners with faculty and researchers, while para-professional staff is increasingly overseeing traditional services. This article addresses shifting staff and schedules at a single-service-point information desk by using time-driven activity-based costing to determine the utilization of resources available to provide traditional library services. Opening hours and schedules were changed, allowing librarians to focus on patrons' information needs in their own environment.

Patterns of reasoning and decision making about condom use by urban college students.

PubMed

Patel, V L; Gutnik, L A; Yoskowitz, N A; O'sullivan, L F; Kaufman, D R

2006-11-01

HIV infection rates are rapidly increasing among young heterosexuals, making it increasingly important to understand how these individuals make decisions regarding risk in sexual encounters. Our objective in this study was to characterize young adults' safer sex behaviour and associate this behaviour with patterns of reasoning, using cognitive, information processing methods to understand the process of sexual risk taking. Sixty urban college students from NYC maintained diaries for two weeks and then were interviewed regarding lifetime condom use and sexual history. Using cognitive analysis, we characterized four patterns of condom use behaviour: consistent condom use (35.0%), inconsistent condom use (16.7%), shifting from consistent to inconsistent condom use (35.0%), and shifting from inconsistent to consistent condom use (13.3%). Directionality of reasoning (i.e. data-driven and hypothesis-driven reasoning) was analysed in the explanations provided for condom use decisions. The consistent and inconsistent patterns of condom use were associated with data-driven heuristic reasoning, where behaviour becomes automated and is associated with a high level of confidence in one's judgment. In the other two patterns, the shift in behaviour was due to a significant event that caused a change in type of reasoning to explanation-based reasoning, reflecting feelings of uncertainty and willingness to evaluate their decisions. We discuss these results within the framework of identifying potentially high-risk groups (e.g. heterosexual young adults) as well as intervention strategies for risk reduction. Further, our findings not only identify different patterns of condom use behaviour, but our investigation of the cognitive process of decision-making characterizes the conditions under which such behaviour and reasoning change.

Impact-Driven Overturn of Lunar Regolith: A Refreshed Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costello, E.; Ghent, R. R.; Lucey, P. G.; Tai Udovicic, C. J.

2016-12-01

Meteoritic impactors churn up lunar regolith, the layer of heterogeneous grains that covers nearly the entire lunar surface to a depth of tens to hundreds of meters, and affect its geologic, petrographic and chemical makeup. An understanding of the physical characteristics of the regolith and how they change through time is fundamentally important to our ability to interpret underlying geological processes from surface observations. Characterizing impact-driven regolith overturn in particular could help us understand the lifetime of rays, ejecta blankets, and stratigraphic layering. Several probabilistic models exist that describe the meteoritic impact-driven overturn process, including that presented by Gault et. al. in their paper `Mixing of the Lunar Regolith.' We re-visit this oft-cited model, updating the constants used with more modern laboratory impact experiments and time variable meteoritic flux estimates. Further, we compare the results of Gault's model to new approaches using remote sensing datasets and Monte Carlo cratering simulations that include conditions Gault's model did not such as the erosion, seismic settling, and degradation that result from the superposition of craters. From this work we present an updated understanding of overturn as a function of time and depth. Gault et. al. showed that the upper millimeter of regolith is mixed with great frequency and the rate of turnover drops off sharply at depth. Our work elaborates on this idea, addressing the sensitivity of this result to variations in parameters including meteoritic flux, impactor mass, velocity, angle of impact and crater geometry. In addition, we use these new methods and parameters to characterize the "mixing layer," as well as those less mixed layers below in an attempt to quantitatively match the new insights on spatial variation of the change in density with depth derived by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer.

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-Stratospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Eun-Su; Cunnold, Derek M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; McCormick, M. Patrick; Russell, James, III; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Oltmans, Samuel; Newchurch, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Attribution of Recovery in Lower-stratospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Eun-Su; Cunnold, Derek M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; McCormick, M. Patrick; Russell, James, III; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Oltmans, Samuel; Newchurch, Michael J.

2006-01-01

Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

A Feasibility Study on the Effectiveness of a Full-Body Videogame Intervention for Decreasing Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms.

PubMed

Weerdmeester, Joanneke; Cima, Maaike; Granic, Isabela; Hashemian, Yasaman; Gotsis, Marientina

2016-08-01

The current study assessed the feasibility and effectiveness of a full-body-driven intervention videogame targeted at decreasing attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms, specifically inattention, hyperactivity, impulsivity, and motor deficiency. The game was tested in a Dutch sample (N = 73) of school-aged children with elevated ADHD symptoms. Children assigned to the intervention condition played "Adventurous Dreaming Highflying Dragon," and those in the control condition played a comparable full-body-driven game without ADHD-focused training components. Games were played during six 15-minute sessions. Outcomes were teacher-rated ADHD symptoms and scores on neuropsychological tasks assessing motor skills, impulsivity, and sustained attention. There was some indication of greater improvement in the intervention group in comparison to the control group in terms of teacher-rated ADHD symptoms. Both groups showed equal indication of improvement in fine motor skills, but no change was found in gross motor skills. Additionally, both groups showed a deterioration in number of hits (assessing sustained attention) on the go/no-go task. Last, the intervention group showed a greater increase in false alarms (assessing impulsivity) than the control group. Dragon seems promising as a game-based intervention for children with ADHD. Children who played Dragon improved in several areas with only a short amount of gameplay (1.5 hours in total), and their satisfaction with the game was high. For future research, it is recommended to further inspect Dragon's influence on impulsivity and gross motor skills. Furthermore, it is recommended to disentangle, examine, and evaluate specific properties of videogames that might lead to positive behavioral change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Longhouser, G.A. Jr.

Human beings are diurnal species, normally active by day and asleep by night. Yet over thirty million Americans struggle with work schedules that include an off-normal work effort. The railroads, law enforcement, health services, Department of Defense, factory workers, chemical plants and public services, communications and utility workers must provide some form of around-the-clock effort. Shift work has been around since the advent of recorded history. There has always been a need for some type of off-normal service and assistance. The impact of shift work is replete with tales and factual evidence of an increased personnel error rate; disorders, bothmore » personal and family, and of course, increased accident events. In recent memory, the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant incident, Union Carbide`s explosion in Bhopal, and the Chernobyl Nuclear Plant catastrophe all occurred during off-normal working hours. Yet management overall has done little to correct the production-driven twelve hour, seven day week shift mentality of the nineteenth century. Most schedules in use today are nothing more than cosmetic variations of the old production schedules. This could be driven by a management consideration of the worker`s response to change coupled with a reluctant buy-in of responsibility for the effects of change. Florida Power Corporation has developed for its nuclear security force, a unique work schedule which attempts to employ the sound principles of circadian rhythms coupled with a comprehensive training program to counter the problems associated with shift work. The results over the last four years have seen a marked reduction in the generic problems of personnel errors, absenteeism, unscheduled overtime and turnover rates. Utilization and understanding of this scheduling process for rotational shift work needs to be assessed to determine if the benefits are site specific or provide an expected response to the problems of shift work.« less

Gravity-Driven Thin Film Flow of an Ellis Fluid.

PubMed

Kheyfets, Vitaly O; Kieweg, Sarah L

2013-12-01

The thin film lubrication approximation has been studied extensively for moving contact lines of Newtonian fluids. However, many industrial and biological applications of the thin film equation involve shear-thinning fluids, which often also exhibit a Newtonian plateau at low shear. This study presents new numerical simulations of the three-dimensional (i.e. two-dimensional spreading), constant-volume, gravity-driven, free surface flow of an Ellis fluid. The numerical solution was validated with a new similarity solution, compared to previous experiments, and then used in a parametric study. The parametric study centered around rheological data for an example biological application of thin film flow: topical drug delivery of anti-HIV microbicide formulations, e.g. hydroxyethylcellulose (HEC) polymer solutions. The parametric study evaluated how spreading length and front velocity saturation depend on Ellis parameters. A lower concentration polymer solution with smaller zero shear viscosity ( η 0 ), τ 1/2 , and λ values spread further. However, when comparing any two fluids with any possible combinations of Ellis parameters, the impact of changing one parameter on spreading length depends on the direction and magnitude of changes in the other two parameters. In addition, the isolated effect of the shear-thinning parameter, λ , on the front velocity saturation depended on τ 1/2 . This study highlighted the relative effects of the individual Ellis parameters, and showed that the shear rates in this flow were in both the shear-thinning and plateau regions of rheological behavior, emphasizing the importance of characterizing the full range of shear-rates in rheological measurements. The validated numerical model and parametric study provides a useful tool for future steps to optimize flow of a fluid with rheological behavior well-described by the Ellis constitutive model, in a range of industrial and biological applications.

CO2-Driven Ocean Acidification Alters and Weakens Integrity of the Calcareous Tubes Produced by the Serpulid Tubeworm, Hydroides elegans

PubMed Central

Chan, Vera Bin San; Li, Chaoyi; Lane, Ackley Charles; Wang, Yanchun; Lu, Xingwen; Shih, Kaimin; Zhang, Tong; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen

2012-01-01

As a consequence of anthropogenic CO2-driven ocean acidification (OA), coastal waters are becoming increasingly challenging for calcifiers due to reductions in saturation states of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) minerals. The response of calcification rate is one of the most frequently investigated symptoms of OA. However, OA may also result in poor quality calcareous products through impaired calcification processes despite there being no observed change in calcification rate. The mineralogy and ultrastructure of the calcareous products under OA conditions may be altered, resulting in changes to the mechanical properties of calcified structures. Here, the warm water biofouling tubeworm, Hydroides elegans, was reared from larva to early juvenile stage at the aragonite saturation state (ΩA) for the current pCO2 level (ambient) and those predicted for the years 2050, 2100 and 2300. Composition, ultrastructure and mechanical strength of the calcareous tubes produced by those early juvenile tubeworms were examined using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and nanoindentation. Juvenile tubes were composed primarily of the highly soluble CaCO3 mineral form, aragonite. Tubes produced in seawater with aragonite saturation states near or below one had significantly higher proportions of the crystalline precursor, amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) and the calcite/aragonite ratio dramatically increased. These alterations in tube mineralogy resulted in a holistic deterioration of the tube hardness and elasticity. Thus, in conditions where ΩA is near or below one, the aragonite-producing juvenile tubeworms may no longer be able to maintain the integrity of their calcification products, and may result in reduced survivorship due to the weakened tube protection. PMID:22912726

NIMROD calculations of energetic particle driven toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Yawei; Zhu, Ping; Kim, Charlson C.; Hu, Zhaoqing; Zou, Zhihui; Wang, Zhengxiong; Nimrod Team

2018-01-01

Toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs) are gap modes induced by the toroidicity of tokamak plasmas in the absence of continuum damping. They can be excited by energetic particles (EPs) when the EP drive exceeds other dampings, such as electron and ion Landau damping, and collisional and radiative damping. A TAE benchmark case, which was proposed by the International Tokamak Physics Activity group, is studied in this work. The numerical calculations of linear growth of TAEs driven by EPs in a circular-shaped, large aspect ratio tokamak have been performed using the Hybrid Kinetic-MHD (HK-MHD) model implemented in the NIMROD code. This HK-MHD model couples a δf particle-in-cell representation of EPs with the 3D MHD representation of the bulk plasma through moment closure for the momentum conservation equation. Both the excitation of TAEs and their transition to energetic particle modes (EPMs) have been observed. The influence of EP density, temperature, density gradient, and position of the maximum relative density gradient, on the frequency and the growth rate of TAEs are obtained, which are consistent with those from the eigen-analysis calculations, kinetic-MHD, and gyrokinetic simulations for an initial Maxwellian distribution of EPs. The relative pressure gradient of EP at the radial location of the TAE gap, which represents the drive strength of EPs, can strongly affect the growth rate of TAEs. It is demonstrated that the mode transition due to EP drive variation leads to not only the change of frequency but also the change of the mode structure. This mechanism can be helpful in understanding the nonlinear physics of TAE/EPM, such as frequency chirping.

Are rates of species diversification and body size evolution coupled in the ferns?

PubMed

Testo, Weston L; Sundue, Michael A

2018-03-01

Understanding the relationship between phenotypic evolution and lineage diversification is a central goal of evolutionary biology. To extend our understanding of the role morphological evolution plays in the diversification of plants, we examined the relationship between leaf size evolution and lineage diversification across ferns. We tested for an association between body size evolution and lineage diversification using a comparative phylogenetic approach that combined a time-calibrated phylogeny and leaf size data set for 2654 fern species. Rates of leaf size change and lineage diversification were estimated using BAMM, and rate correlations were performed for rates obtained for all families and individual species. Rates and patterns of rate-rate correlation were also analyzed separately for terrestrial and epiphytic taxa. We find no significant correlation between rates of leaf area change and lineage diversification, nor was there a difference in this pattern when growth habit is considered. Our results are consistent with the findings of an earlier study that reported decoupled rates of body size evolution and diversification in the Polypodiaceae, but conflict with a recent study that reported a positive correlation between body size evolution and lineage diversification rates in the tree fern family Cyatheaceae. Our findings indicate that lineage diversification in ferns is largely decoupled from shifts in body size, in contrast to several other groups of organisms. Speciation in ferns appears to be primarily driven by hybridization and isolation along elevational gradients, rather than adaptive radiations featuring prominent morphological restructuring. The exceptional diversity of leaf morphologies in ferns appears to reflect a combination of ecophysiological constraints and adaptations that are not key innovations. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Unemployment and inflation dynamics prior to the economic downturn of 2007-2008.

PubMed

Guastello, Stephen J; Myers, Adam

2009-10-01

This article revisits a long-standing theoretical issue as to whether a "natural rate" of unemployment exists in the sense of an exogenously driven fixed-point Walrasian equilibrium or attractor, or whether more complex dynamics such as hysteresis or chaos characterize an endogenous dynamical process instead. The same questions are posed regarding a possible natural rate of inflation along with an investigation of the actual relationship between inflation and unemployment for which extent theories differ. Time series of unemployment and inflation for US data - were analyzed using the exponential model series and nonlinear regression for capturing Lyapunov exponents and transfer effects from other variables. The best explanation for unemployment was that it is a chaotic variable that is driven in part by inflation. The best explanation for inflation is that it is also a chaotic variable driven in part by unemployment and the prices of treasury bills. Estimates of attractors' epicenters were calculated in lieu of classical natural rates.

Laser-driven ion acceleration at BELLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Jianhui; Steinke, Sven; Ji, Qing; Nakamura, Kei; Treffert, Franziska; Bulanov, Stepan; Roth, Markus; Toth, Csaba; Schroeder, Carl; Esarey, Eric; Schenkel, Thomas; Leemans, Wim

2017-10-01

BELLA is a high repetiton rate PW laser and we used it for high intensity laser plasma acceleration experiments. The BELLA-i program is focused on relativistic laser plasma interaction such as laser driven ion acceleration, aiming at establishing an unique collaborative research facility providing beam time to selected external groups for fundamental physics and advanced applications. Here we present our first parameter study of ion acceleration driven by the BELLA-PW laser with truly high repetition rate. The laser repetition rate of 1Hz allows for scanning the laser pulse duration, relative focus location and target thickness for the first time at laser peak powers of above 1 PW. Furthermore, the long focal length geometry of the experiment (f ∖65) and hence, large focus size provided ion beams of reduced divergence and unprecedented charge density. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

Mechanics of Interrill Erosion with Wind-Driven Rain (WDR)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This article provides an evaluation analysis for the performance of the interrill component of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) events. The interrill delivery rates (Di) were collected in the wind tunnel rainfall simulator facility of the International Cen...

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

PubMed

Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

2018-06-03

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling. © 2018 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.