Sensitivity of breeding parameters to food supply in Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gill, Verena A.; Hatch, Scott A.; Lanctot, Richard B.

2002-01-01

We fed Herring Clupea pallasi to pairs of Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla throughout the breeding season in two years at a colony in the northern Gulf of Alaska. We measured responses to supplemental feeding in a wide array of breeding parameters to gauge their relative sensitivity to food supply, and thus their potential as indicators of natural foraging conditions. Conventional measures of success (hatching, fledging and overall productivity) were more effective as indicators of food supply than behavioural attributes such as courtship feeding, chick provisioning rates and sibling aggression. However, behaviour such as nest relief during incubation and adult attendance with older chicks were also highly responsive to supplemental food and may be useful for monitoring environmental conditions in studies of shorter duration. On average, the chick-rearing stage contained more sensitive indicators of food availability than prelaying or incubation stages. Overall, rates of hatching and fledging success, and the mean duration of incubation shifts were the most food-sensitive parameters studied.

Asymmetrical effects of mesophyll conductance on fundamental photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from leaf gas exchange measurements.

PubMed

Sun, Ying; Gu, Lianhong; Dickinson, Robert E; Pallardy, Stephen G; Baker, John; Cao, Yonghui; DaMatta, Fábio Murilo; Dong, Xuejun; Ellsworth, David; Van Goethem, Davina; Jensen, Anna M; Law, Beverly E; Loos, Rodolfo; Martins, Samuel C Vitor; Norby, Richard J; Warren, Jeffrey; Weston, David; Winter, Klaus

2014-04-01

Worldwide measurements of nearly 130 C3 species covering all major plant functional types are analysed in conjunction with model simulations to determine the effects of mesophyll conductance (g(m)) on photosynthetic parameters and their relationships estimated from A/Ci curves. We find that an assumption of infinite g(m) results in up to 75% underestimation for maximum carboxylation rate V(cmax), 60% for maximum electron transport rate J(max), and 40% for triose phosphate utilization rate T(u) . V(cmax) is most sensitive, J(max) is less sensitive, and T(u) has the least sensitivity to the variation of g(m). Because of this asymmetrical effect of g(m), the ratios of J(max) to V(cmax), T(u) to V(cmax) and T(u) to J(max) are all overestimated. An infinite g(m) assumption also limits the freedom of variation of estimated parameters and artificially constrains parameter relationships to stronger shapes. These findings suggest the importance of quantifying g(m) for understanding in situ photosynthetic machinery functioning. We show that a nonzero resistance to CO2 movement in chloroplasts has small effects on estimated parameters. A non-linear function with gm as input is developed to convert the parameters estimated under an assumption of infinite gm to proper values. This function will facilitate gm representation in global carbon cycle models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using sensitivity analysis in model calibration efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2003-01-01

In models of natural and engineered systems, sensitivity analysis can be used to assess relations among system state observations, model parameters, and model predictions. The model itself links these three entities, and model sensitivities can be used to quantify the links. Sensitivities are defined as the derivatives of simulated quantities (such as simulated equivalents of observations, or model predictions) with respect to model parameters. We present four measures calculated from model sensitivities that quantify the observation-parameter-prediction links and that are especially useful during the calibration and prediction phases of modeling. These four measures are composite scaled sensitivities (CSS), prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), the value of improved information (VOII) statistic, and the observation prediction (OPR) statistic. These measures can be used to help guide initial calibration of models, collection of field data beneficial to model predictions, and recalibration of models updated with new field information. Once model sensitivities have been calculated, each of the four measures requires minimal computational effort. We apply the four measures to a three-layer MODFLOW-2000 (Harbaugh et al., 2000; Hill et al., 2000) model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system (DVRFS), located in southern Nevada and California. D’Agnese et al. (1997, 1999) developed and calibrated the model using nonlinear regression methods. Figure 1 shows some of the observations, parameters, and predictions for the DVRFS model. Observed quantities include hydraulic heads and spring flows. The 23 defined model parameters include hydraulic conductivities, vertical anisotropies, recharge rates, evapotranspiration rates, and pumpage. Predictions of interest for this regional-scale model are advective transport paths from potential contamination sites underlying the Nevada Test Site and Yucca Mountain.

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Calibration for an Ecosystem Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safta, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Sargsyan, K.; Najm, H. N.; Debusschere, B.; Thornton, P. E.

2013-12-01

We present uncertainty quantification results for a process-based ecosystem carbon model. The model employs 18 parameters and is driven by meteorological data corresponding to years 1992-2006 at the Harvard Forest site. Daily Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) observations were available to calibrate the model parameters and test the performance of the model. Posterior distributions show good predictive capabilities for the calibrated model. A global sensitivity analysis was first performed to determine the important model parameters based on their contribution to the variance of NEE. We then proceed to calibrate the model parameters in a Bayesian framework. The daily discrepancies between measured and predicted NEE values were modeled as independent and identically distributed Gaussians with prescribed daily variance according to the recorded instrument error. All model parameters were assumed to have uninformative priors with bounds set according to expert opinion. The global sensitivity results show that the rate of leaf fall (LEAFALL) is responsible for approximately 25% of the total variance in the average NEE for 1992-2005. A set of 4 other parameters, Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), base rate for maintenance respiration (BR_MR), growth respiration fraction (RG_FRAC), and allocation to plant stem pool (ASTEM) contribute between 5% and 12% to the variance in average NEE, while the rest of the parameters have smaller contributions. The posterior distributions, sampled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, exhibit significant correlations between model parameters. However LEAFALL, the most important parameter for the average NEE, is not informed by the observational data, while less important parameters show significant updates between their prior and posterior densities. The Fisher information matrix values, indicating which parameters are most informed by the experimental observations, are examined to augment the comparison between the calibration and global sensitivity analysis results.

Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

PubMed Central

Shyu, Esther; Caswell, Hal

2014-01-01

1. Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way to calculate sensitivities of the stochastic growth rate. 2. Using matrix calculus, we derive the second derivatives of three population growth rate measures: the discrete-time growth rate λ, the continuous-time growth rate r = log λ and the net reproductive rate R0, which measures per-generation growth. 3. We present a suite of formulae for the second derivatives of each growth rate and show how to compute these derivatives with respect to projection matrix entries and to lower-level parameters affecting those matrix entries. 4. We also illustrate several ecological and evolutionary applications for these second derivative calculations with a case study for the tropical herb Calathea ovandensis. PMID:25793101

Evaluation of the information content of long-term wastewater characteristics data in relation to activated sludge model parameters.

PubMed

Alikhani, Jamal; Takacs, Imre; Al-Omari, Ahmed; Murthy, Sudhir; Massoudieh, Arash

2017-03-01

A parameter estimation framework was used to evaluate the ability of observed data from a full-scale nitrification-denitrification bioreactor to reduce the uncertainty associated with the bio-kinetic and stoichiometric parameters of an activated sludge model (ASM). Samples collected over a period of 150 days from the effluent as well as from the reactor tanks were used. A hybrid genetic algorithm and Bayesian inference were used to perform deterministic and parameter estimations, respectively. The main goal was to assess the ability of the data to obtain reliable parameter estimates for a modified version of the ASM. The modified ASM model includes methylotrophic processes which play the main role in methanol-fed denitrification. Sensitivity analysis was also used to explain the ability of the data to provide information about each of the parameters. The results showed that the uncertainty in the estimates of the most sensitive parameters (including growth rate, decay rate, and yield coefficients) decreased with respect to the prior information.

Temperature Sensitivity as a Microbial Trait Using Parameters from Macromolecular Rate Theory

PubMed Central

Alster, Charlotte J.; Baas, Peter; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Johnson, Nels G.; von Fischer, Joseph C.

2016-01-01

The activity of soil microbial extracellular enzymes is strongly controlled by temperature, yet the degree to which temperature sensitivity varies by microbe and enzyme type is unclear. Such information would allow soil microbial enzymes to be incorporated in a traits-based framework to improve prediction of ecosystem response to global change. If temperature sensitivity varies for specific soil enzymes, then determining the underlying causes of variation in temperature sensitivity of these enzymes will provide fundamental insights for predicting nutrient dynamics belowground. In this study, we characterized how both microbial taxonomic variation as well as substrate type affects temperature sensitivity. We measured β-glucosidase, leucine aminopeptidase, and phosphatase activities at six temperatures: 4, 11, 25, 35, 45, and 60°C, for seven different soil microbial isolates. To calculate temperature sensitivity, we employed two models, Arrhenius, which predicts an exponential increase in reaction rate with temperature, and Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which predicts rate to peak and then decline as temperature increases. We found MMRT provided a more accurate fit and allowed for more nuanced interpretation of temperature sensitivity in all of the enzyme × isolate combinations tested. Our results revealed that both the enzyme type and soil isolate type explain variation in parameters associated with temperature sensitivity. Because we found temperature sensitivity to be an inherent and variable property of an enzyme, we argue that it can be incorporated as a microbial functional trait, but only when using the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity. We show that the Arrhenius metrics of temperature sensitivity are overly sensitive to test conditions, with activation energy changing depending on the temperature range it was calculated within. Thus, we propose the use of the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity for accurate interpretation of temperature sensitivity of soil microbial enzymes. PMID:27909429

Sensitivity analysis of a multilayer, finite-difference model of the Southeastern Coastal Plain regional aquifer system; Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pernik, Meribeth

1987-01-01

The sensitivity of a multilayer finite-difference regional flow model was tested by changing the calibrated values for five parameters in the steady-state model and one in the transient-state model. The parameters that changed under the steady-state condition were those that had been routinely adjusted during the calibration process as part of the effort to match pre-development potentiometric surfaces, and elements of the water budget. The tested steady-state parameters include: recharge, riverbed conductance, transmissivity, confining unit leakance, and boundary location. In the transient-state model, the storage coefficient was adjusted. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the calibrated values of these parameters was evaluated with respect to the simulated response of net base flow to the rivers, and the mean value of the absolute head residual. To provide a standard measurement of sensitivity from one parameter to another, the standard deviation of the absolute head residual was calculated. The steady-state model was shown to be most sensitive to changes in rates of recharge. When the recharge rate was held constant, the model was more sensitive to variations in transmissivity. Near the rivers, the riverbed conductance becomes the dominant parameter in controlling the heads. Changes in confining unit leakance had little effect on simulated base flow, but greatly affected head residuals. The model was relatively insensitive to changes in the location of no-flow boundaries and to moderate changes in the altitude of constant head boundaries. The storage coefficient was adjusted under transient conditions to illustrate the model 's sensitivity to changes in storativity. The model is less sensitive to an increase in storage coefficient than it is to a decrease in storage coefficient. As the storage coefficient decreased, the aquifer drawdown increases, the base flow decreased. The opposite response occurred when the storage coefficient was increased. (Author 's abstract)

Modeling Nitrogen Dynamics in a Waste Stabilization Pond System Using Flexible Modeling Environment with MCMC.

PubMed

Mukhtar, Hussnain; Lin, Yu-Pin; Shipin, Oleg V; Petway, Joy R

2017-07-12

This study presents an approach for obtaining realization sets of parameters for nitrogen removal in a pilot-scale waste stabilization pond (WSP) system. The proposed approach was designed for optimal parameterization, local sensitivity analysis, and global uncertainty analysis of a dynamic simulation model for the WSP by using the R software package Flexible Modeling Environment (R-FME) with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Additionally, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was integrated into the FME to evaluate the major parameters that affect the simulation outputs in the study WSP. Comprehensive modeling analysis was used to simulate and assess nine parameters and concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Results indicate that the integrated FME-GLUE-based model, with good Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (0.53-0.69) and correlation coefficients (0.76-0.83), successfully simulates the concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Moreover, the Arrhenius constant was the only parameter sensitive to model performances of ON-N and NH₃-N simulations. However, Nitrosomonas growth rate, the denitrification constant, and the maximum growth rate at 20 °C were sensitive to ON-N and NO₃-N simulation, which was measured using global sensitivity.

A calibration protocol of a one-dimensional moving bed bioreactor (MBBR) dynamic model for nitrogen removal.

PubMed

Barry, U; Choubert, J-M; Canler, J-P; Héduit, A; Robin, L; Lessard, P

2012-01-01

This work suggests a procedure to correctly calibrate the parameters of a one-dimensional MBBR dynamic model in nitrification treatment. The study deals with the MBBR configuration with two reactors in series, one for carbon treatment and the other for nitrogen treatment. Because of the influence of the first reactor on the second one, the approach needs a specific calibration strategy. Firstly, a comparison between measured values and simulated ones obtained with default parameters has been carried out. Simulated values of filtered COD, NH(4)-N and dissolved oxygen are underestimated and nitrates are overestimated compared with observed data. Thus, nitrifying rate and oxygen transfer into the biofilm are overvalued. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for parameters and for COD fractionation. It revealed three classes of sensitive parameters: physical, diffusional and kinetic. Then a calibration protocol of the MBBR dynamic model was proposed. It was successfully tested on data recorded at a pilot-scale plant and a calibrated set of values was obtained for four parameters: the maximum biofilm thickness, the detachment rate, the maximum autotrophic growth rate and the oxygen transfer rate.

Corneal Sensitivity in Tear Dysfunction and its Correlation with Clinical Parameters and Blink Rate

PubMed Central

Rahman, Effie Z.; Lam, Peter K.; Chu, Chia-Kai; Moore, Quianta; Pflugfelder, Stephen C.

2015-01-01

Purpose To compare corneal sensitivity in tear dysfunction due to a variety of causes using contact and non-contact esthesiometers and to evaluate correlations between corneal sensitivity, blink rate and clinical parameters. Design Comparative observational case series. Methods Ten normal and 33 subjects with tear dysfunction [meibomian gland disease (n = 11), aqueous tear deficiency (n = 10) - without (n = 7) and with (n = 3) Sjögren syndrome (SS) and conjunctivochalasis (n = 12)] were evaluated. Corneal sensitivity was measured with Cochet-Bonnet and air jet esthesiometers and blink rate by electromyelography. Eye irritation symptoms, tear meniscus height, tear break-up time (TBUT), and corneal and conjunctival dye staining were measured. Between group means were compared and correlations calculated. Results Compared with control (Cochet-Bonnet 5.45 mm, air esthesiometer 3.62 mg), mean sensory thresholds were significantly higher in aqueous tear deficiency using either Cochet-Bonnet (3.6 mm; P = 0.003) or air (11.7 mg; P = 0.046) esthesiometers, but were not significantly different in the other groups. Reduced corneal sensitivity significantly correlated with more rapid TBUT and blink rate, and greater irritation and ocular surface dye staining with one or both esthesiometers. Mean blink rates were significantly higher in both aqueous tear deficiency and conjunctivochalasis compared with control. Among all subjects, blink rate positively correlated with ocular surface staining and irritation and inversely correlated with TBUT. Conclusion Amongst conditions causing tear dysfunction, reduced corneal sensitivity is associated with greater irritation, tear instability, ocular surface disease and blink rate. Rapid blinking is associated with worse ocular surface disease and tear stability. PMID:26255576

Sensitivity Analysis for Steady State Groundwater Flow Using Adjoint Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sykes, J. F.; Wilson, J. L.; Andrews, R. W.

1985-03-01

Adjoint sensitivity theory is currently being considered as a potential method for calculating the sensitivity of nuclear waste repository performance measures to the parameters of the system. For groundwater flow systems, performance measures of interest include piezometric heads in the vicinity of a waste site, velocities or travel time in aquifers, and mass discharge to biosphere points. The parameters include recharge-discharge rates, prescribed boundary heads or fluxes, formation thicknesses, and hydraulic conductivities. The derivative of a performance measure with respect to the system parameters is usually taken as a measure of sensitivity. To calculate sensitivities, adjoint sensitivity equations are formulated from the equations describing the primary problem. The solution of the primary problem and the adjoint sensitivity problem enables the determination of all of the required derivatives and hence related sensitivity coefficients. In this study, adjoint sensitivity theory is developed for equations of two-dimensional steady state flow in a confined aquifer. Both the primary flow equation and the adjoint sensitivity equation are solved using the Galerkin finite element method. The developed computer code is used to investigate the regional flow parameters of the Leadville Formation of the Paradox Basin in Utah. The results illustrate the sensitivity of calculated local heads to the boundary conditions. Alternatively, local velocity related performance measures are more sensitive to hydraulic conductivities.

Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-01-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting climate-mediated different sensitivities of modeled sugar cane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

2014-06-01

Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input parameters on a continental scale across the large regions of intensive sugarcane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. The ten parameters driving most of the uncertainty in the ORCHIDEE-STICS modeled biomass at the 7 sites are identified by the screening procedure. We found that the 10 most sensitive parameters control phenology (maximum rate of increase of LAI) and root uptake of water and nitrogen (root profile and root growth rate, nitrogen stress threshold) in STICS, and photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), and transpiration and respiration (stomatal conductance, growth and maintenance respiration coefficients) in ORCHIDEE. We find that the optimal carboxylation rate and photosynthesis temperature parameters contribute most to the uncertainty in harvested biomass simulations at site scale. The spatial variation of the ranked correlation between input parameters and modeled biomass at harvest is well explained by rain and temperature drivers, suggesting different climate-mediated sensitivities of modeled sugarcane yield to the model parameters, for Australia and Brazil. This study reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainty variability for a highly parameterized agro-LSM and calls for more systematic uncertainty analyses of such models.

[Vulnerability to atmospheric and geomagnetic factors of the body functions in healthy male dwellers of the Russian North].

PubMed

Markov, A L; Zenchenko, T A; Solonin, Iu G; Boĭko, E R

2013-01-01

In April 2009 through to November 2011, a Mars-500 satellite study of Russian Northerners (Syktyvkar citizens) was performed using the standard ECOSAN-2007 procedure evaluating the atmospheric and geomagnetic susceptibility of the main body functional parameters. Seventeen essentially healthy men at the age of 25 to 46 years were investigated. Statistical data treatment included correlation and single-factor analysis of variance. Comparison of the number of statistical correlations of the sum of all functional parameters for participants showed that most often they were sensitive to atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity and oxygen partial pressure (29-35 %), and geomagnetic activity (28 %). Dependence of the functional parameters on the rate of temperature and pressure change was weak and comparable with random coincidence (11 %). Among the hemodynamic parameters, systolic pressure was particularly sensitive to space and terrestrial weather variations (29 %); sensitivity of heart rate and diastolic pressure were determined in 25 % and 21 % of participants, respectively. Among the heart rate variability parameters (HRV) the largest number of statistically reliable correlations was determined for the centralization index (32 %) and high-frequency HRV spectrum (31 %); index of the regulatory systems activity was least dependable (19 %). Life index, maximal breath-holding and Ckibinskaya's cardiorespiratory index are also susceptible. Individual responses of the functional parameters to terrestrial and space weather changes varied with partidpants which points to the necessity of individual approach to evaluation of person's reactions to environmental changes.

Parameter and observation importance in modelling virus transport in saturated porous media - Investigations in a homogenous system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Gilbert R.; Hill, M.C.

2005-01-01

This paper evaluates the importance of seven types of parameters to virus transport: hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity, sorption rate and distribution coefficient (representing physical-chemical filtration), and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation (representing virus inactivation). The first three parameters relate to subsurface transport in general while the last four, the sorption rate, distribution coefficient, and in-solution and adsorbed inactivation rates, represent the interaction of viruses with the porous medium and their ability to persist. The importance of four types of observations to estimate the virus-transport parameters are evaluated: hydraulic heads, flow, temporal moments of conservative-transport concentrations, and virus concentrations. The evaluations are conducted using one- and two-dimensional homogeneous simulations, designed from published field experiments, and recently developed sensitivity-analysis methods. Sensitivity to the transport-simulation time-step size is used to evaluate the importance of numerical solution difficulties. Results suggest that hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and sorption are most important to virus-transport predictions. Most observation types provide substantial information about hydraulic conductivity and porosity; only virus-concentration observations provide information about sorption and inactivation. The observations are not sufficient to estimate these important parameters uniquely. Even with all observation types, there is extreme parameter correlation between porosity and hydraulic conductivity and between the sorption rate and in-solution inactivation. Parameter estimation was accomplished by fixing values of porosity and in-solution inactivation.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-10

This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...

A simplified method for determining reactive rate parameters for reaction ignition and growth in explosives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, P.J.

1996-07-01

A simplified method for determining the reactive rate parameters for the ignition and growth model is presented. This simplified ignition and growth (SIG) method consists of only two adjustable parameters, the ignition (I) and growth (G) rate constants. The parameters are determined by iterating these variables in DYNA2D hydrocode simulations of the failure diameter and the gap test sensitivity until the experimental values are reproduced. Examples of four widely different explosives were evaluated using the SIG model. The observed embedded gauge stress-time profiles for these explosives are compared to those calculated by the SIG equation and the results are described.

Energy dissipation in polymer-polymer adhesion contacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garif, Yev Skip

This study focuses on self-adhesion in elastomers as a way of approaching a broader polymer adhesion problem. The model systems studied are cross-linked acrylic pressure-sensitive adhesives (PSA-LNs) synthesized to attain four surface types: neutral, acidic, basic, and polar. As the study progressed, it distinguished itself as the first of its kind to consistently report the effect of temperature on measurable intrinsic parameters of polymer adhesion. The main goal of the study was to understand why the magnitude of the practical adhesion energies of the four PSA-LN systems tested varies disproportionately greater than their respective surface energies. To achieve this goal, continuous sweeps of adhesion energy as a function of rate of interfacial separation were performed using three different adhesion-probing techniques--- peel, micro-scratch, and normal contact. The answer was found in the sub-micron-per-second limit of separation rates. In approaching this limit, the power law behavior of adhesion gradually transitioned into a linear region of markedly weaker sensitivity to rate. Referred to as the "intrinsic window", this linear region was characterized by three parameters: (1) the intrinsic adhesion energy at zero rate of separation; (2) the intrinsic rate sensitivity equal to the proportionality constant of the linear fit; and (3) the critical separation rate in the middle of the transition to the power law. All three were found to be thermally activated. Activation energies suggested that interfacial processes are attributed mainly to dispersive and electrostatic molecular interactions such as hydrogen bonding or van der Waals attraction. Comparative analysis of the intrinsic window of the four PSA-LNs tested showed that an increase in the intrinsic adhesion energy associated with higher surface energy is inherently coupled with an increase in the intrinsic rate sensitivity and reduction in the critical separation rate. When combined, the three parameters reshape the intrinsic window such that the entire power-law portion of the adhesion response is shifted to a level that appears disproportionately high based on the false assumption that there is only one intrinsic parameter contributing to the shift. Thus, the goal of explaining this disproportionality was achieved.

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mokashi, A. R.

1982-01-01

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Modeling Nitrogen Dynamics in a Waste Stabilization Pond System Using Flexible Modeling Environment with MCMC

PubMed Central

Mukhtar, Hussnain; Lin, Yu-Pin; Shipin, Oleg V.; Petway, Joy R.

2017-01-01

This study presents an approach for obtaining realization sets of parameters for nitrogen removal in a pilot-scale waste stabilization pond (WSP) system. The proposed approach was designed for optimal parameterization, local sensitivity analysis, and global uncertainty analysis of a dynamic simulation model for the WSP by using the R software package Flexible Modeling Environment (R-FME) with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Additionally, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was integrated into the FME to evaluate the major parameters that affect the simulation outputs in the study WSP. Comprehensive modeling analysis was used to simulate and assess nine parameters and concentrations of ON-N, NH3-N and NO3-N. Results indicate that the integrated FME-GLUE-based model, with good Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients (0.53–0.69) and correlation coefficients (0.76–0.83), successfully simulates the concentrations of ON-N, NH3-N and NO3-N. Moreover, the Arrhenius constant was the only parameter sensitive to model performances of ON-N and NH3-N simulations. However, Nitrosomonas growth rate, the denitrification constant, and the maximum growth rate at 20 °C were sensitive to ON-N and NO3-N simulation, which was measured using global sensitivity. PMID:28704958

Sensitivity of turbine-height wind speeds to parameters in planetary boundary-layer and surface-layer schemes in the weather research and forecasting model

DOE PAGES

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.; ...

2016-07-21

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. Themore » parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. Lastly, the relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.« less

Sensitivity of turbine-height wind speeds to parameters in planetary boundary-layer and surface-layer schemes in the weather research and forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds to 26 parameters within the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) planetary boundary-layer scheme and MM5 surface-layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting model over an area of complex terrain. An efficient sampling algorithm and generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of simulated turbine-height wind speeds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is due to parameters related to the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulent length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. Themore » parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be most important, and a larger dissipation rate produces larger hub-height wind speeds. A larger Prandtl number results in smaller nighttime wind speeds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong airflows, implying a reduction in the variability of wind speed. All of the above parameters significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed and the magnitude of wind shear. Lastly, the relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability.« less

Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

Physical nature of strain rate sensitivity of metals and alloys at high strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodin, E. N.; Gruzdkov, A. A.; Mayer, A. E.; Selyutina, N. S.

2018-04-01

The role of instabilities of plastic flow at plastic deformation of various materials is one of the important cross-disciplinary problems which is equally important in physics, mechanics and material science. The strain rate sensitivities under slow and high strain rate conditions of loading have different physical nature. In the case of low strain rate, the sensitivity arising from the inertness of the defect structures evolution can be expressed by a single parameter characterizing the plasticity mechanism. In our approach, this is the value of the characteristic relaxation time. In the dynamic case, there are additional effects of “high-speed sensitivity” associated with the micro-localization of the plastic flow near the stress concentrators. In the frames of mechanical description, this requires to introduce additional strain rate sensitivity parameters, which is realized in numerous modifications of Johnson–Cook and Zerilli–Armstrong models. The consideration of both these factors is fundamental for an adequate description of the problems of dynamic deformation of highly inhomogeneous metallic materials such as steels and alloys. The measurement of the dispersion of particle velocities on the free surface of a shock-loaded material can be regarded as an experimental expression of the effect of micro-localization. This is also confirmed by our results of numerical simulation of the propagation of shock waves in a two-dimensional formulation and analytical estimations.

Theoretical study of electronic transfer current rate at dye-sensitized solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Agealy, Hadi J. M.; AlMaadhede, Taif Saad; Hassooni, Mohsin A.; Sadoon, Abbas K.; Ashweik, Ahmed M.; Mahdi, Hind Abdlmajeed; Ghadhban, Rawnaq Qays

2018-05-01

In this research, we present a theoretical study of electronic transfer kinetics rate in N719/TiO2 and N719/ZnO dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSC) systems using a simple model depending on the postulate of quantum mechanics theory. The evaluation of the electronic transition current rate in DSSC systems are function of many parameters such that; the reorientation transition energies ΛSe m D y e , the transition coupling parameter ℂT(0), potential exponential effect e-(E/C-EF ) kBT , unit cell volume VSem, and temperature T. Furthermore, the analysis of electronic transfer current rate in N719/TiO2 and N719/ZnO systems show that the rate upon dye-sensitization solar cell increases with increases of transition coupling parameter, decreasing potential that building at interface a results of different material in this devices and increasing with reorientation transition energy. On the other hand, we can find the electronic transfer behavior is dependent of the dye absorption spectrum and mainly depending on the reorientation of transition energy. The replacement of the solvents in both DSSC system caused increasing of current rates dramatically depending on polarity of solvent in subset devices. This change in current rate of electron transfer were attributed to much more available of recombination sites introduced by the solvents medium. The electronic transfer current dynamics are shown to occurs in N719/TiO2 system faster many time compare to ocuures at N719/ZnO system, this indicate that TiO2 a is a good and active material compare with ZnO to using in dye sensitized solar cell devices. In contrast, the large current rate in N719/TiO2 comparing to ZnO of N719/ZnO systems indicate that using TiO2 with N719 dye lead to increasing the efficiency of DSSC.

Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, A.W.; Bailey, L.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2011-01-01

Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat-occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium-state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three-state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second-order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second-order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system-specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Assessing uncertainty in ecological systems using global sensitivity analyses: a case example of simulated wolf reintroduction effects on elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fieberg, J.; Jenkins, Kurt J.

2005-01-01

Often landmark conservation decisions are made despite an incomplete knowledge of system behavior and inexact predictions of how complex ecosystems will respond to management actions. For example, predicting the feasibility and likely effects of restoring top-level carnivores such as the gray wolf (Canis lupus) to North American wilderness areas is hampered by incomplete knowledge of the predator-prey system processes and properties. In such cases, global sensitivity measures, such as Sobola?? indices, allow one to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on model predictions. Sobola?? indices are calculated by decomposing the variance in model predictions (due to parameter uncertainty) into main effects of model parameters and their higher order interactions. Model parameters with large sensitivity indices can then be identified for further study in order to improve predictive capabilities. Here, we illustrate the use of Sobola?? sensitivity indices to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty on the predicted decline of elk (Cervus elaphus) population sizes following a hypothetical reintroduction of wolves to Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. The strength of density dependence acting on survival of adult elk and magnitude of predation were the most influential factors controlling elk population size following a simulated wolf reintroduction. In particular, the form of density dependence in natural survival rates and the per-capita predation rate together accounted for over 90% of variation in simulated elk population trends. Additional research on wolf predation rates on elk and natural compensations in prey populations is needed to reliably predict the outcome of predatora??prey system behavior following wolf reintroductions.

Chapter 8: Demographic characteristics and population modeling

Treesearch

Scott H. Stoleson; Mary J. Whitfield; Mark K. Sogge

2000-01-01

An understanding of the basic demography of a species is necessary to estimate and evaluate population trends. The relative impact of different demographic parameters on growth rates can be assessed through a sensitivity analysis, in which different parameters are altered singly to assess the effect on population growth. Identification of critical parameters can allow...

Investigation, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective optimization of effective parameters on temperature and force in robotic drilling cortical bone.

PubMed

Tahmasbi, Vahid; Ghoreishi, Majid; Zolfaghari, Mojtaba

2017-11-01

The bone drilling process is very prominent in orthopedic surgeries and in the repair of bone fractures. It is also very common in dentistry and bone sampling operations. Due to the complexity of bone and the sensitivity of the process, bone drilling is one of the most important and sensitive processes in biomedical engineering. Orthopedic surgeries can be improved using robotic systems and mechatronic tools. The most crucial problem during drilling is an unwanted increase in process temperature (higher than 47 °C), which causes thermal osteonecrosis or cell death and local burning of the bone tissue. Moreover, imposing higher forces to the bone may lead to breaking or cracking and consequently cause serious damage. In this study, a mathematical second-order linear regression model as a function of tool drilling speed, feed rate, tool diameter, and their effective interactions is introduced to predict temperature and force during the bone drilling process. This model can determine the maximum speed of surgery that remains within an acceptable temperature range. Moreover, for the first time, using designed experiments, the bone drilling process was modeled, and the drilling speed, feed rate, and tool diameter were optimized. Then, using response surface methodology and applying a multi-objective optimization, drilling force was minimized to sustain an acceptable temperature range without damaging the bone or the surrounding tissue. In addition, for the first time, Sobol statistical sensitivity analysis is used to ascertain the effect of process input parameters on process temperature and force. The results show that among all effective input parameters, tool rotational speed, feed rate, and tool diameter have the highest influence on process temperature and force, respectively. The behavior of each output parameters with variation in each input parameter is further investigated. Finally, a multi-objective optimization has been performed considering all the aforementioned parameters. This optimization yielded a set of data that can considerably improve orthopedic osteosynthesis outcomes.

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; LaManna, Joseph C.; Cabrera, Marco E.

1999-01-01

An acute reduction in oxygen (O2) delivery to a tissue is generally associated with a decrease in phosphocreatine, increases in ADP, NADH/NAD, and inorganic phosphate, increased rates of glycolysis and lactate production, and reduced rates of pyruvate and fatty acid oxidation. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in tissue O2 availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of O2 as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and in parameters controlling the rate of cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The whole body is described as a bioenergetic system consisting of metabolically distinct tissue/organ subsystems that exchange materials with the blood. In order to study the dynamic response of each subsystem to stimuli, we solve the ordinary differential equations describing the temporal evolution of metabolite levels, given the initial concentrations. The solver used in the present study is the packaged code LSODE, as implemented in the NASA Lewis kinetics and sensitivity analysis code, LSENS. A major advantage of LSENS is the efficient procedures supporting systematic sensitivity analysis, which provides the basic methods for studying parameter sensitivities (i.e., changes in model behavior due to parameter variation). Sensitivity analysis establishes relationships between model predictions and problem parameters (i.e., initial concentrations, rate coefficients, etc). It helps determine the effects of uncertainties or changes in these input parameters on the predictions, which ultimately are compared with experimental observations in order to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis can identify parameters that must be determined accurately because of their large effect on the model predictions and parameters that need not be known with great precision because they have little or no effect on the solution. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing the design of experiments, thereby reducing the use of animals. This approach can be applied to study the metabolic effects of reduced oxygen delivery to cardiac muscle due to local myocardial ischemia and the effects of acute hypoxia on brain metabolism. Other important applications of sensitivity analysis include identification of quantitatively relevant pathways and biochemical species within an overall mechanism, when examining the effects of a genetic anomaly or pathological state on energetic system components and whole system behavior.

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties.

PubMed

Brownbridge, George; Azadi, Pooya; Smallbone, Andrew; Bhave, Amit; Taylor, Benjamin; Kraft, Markus

2014-01-01

This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000 tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be £0.8-1.6 per kg. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

Development of a generalized perturbation theory method for sensitivity analysis using continuous-energy Monte Carlo methods

DOE PAGES

Perfetti, Christopher M.; Rearden, Bradley T.

2016-03-01

The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools of the ORNL SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation code system that have been developed over the last decade have proven indispensable for numerous application and design studies for nuclear criticality safety and reactor physics. SCALE contains tools for analyzing the uncertainty in the eigenvalue of critical systems, but cannot quantify uncertainty in important neutronic parameters such as multigroup cross sections, fuel fission rates, activation rates, and neutron fluence rates with realistic three-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations. A more complete understanding of the sources of uncertainty in these design-limiting parameters could lead to improvements in processmore » optimization, reactor safety, and help inform regulators when setting operational safety margins. A novel approach for calculating eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients, known as the CLUTCH method, was recently explored as academic research and has been found to accurately and rapidly calculate sensitivity coefficients in criticality safety applications. The work presented here describes a new method, known as the GEAR-MC method, which extends the CLUTCH theory for calculating eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients to enable sensitivity coefficient calculations and uncertainty analysis for a generalized set of neutronic responses using high-fidelity continuous-energy Monte Carlo calculations. Here, several criticality safety systems were examined to demonstrate proof of principle for the GEAR-MC method, and GEAR-MC was seen to produce response sensitivity coefficients that agreed well with reference direct perturbation sensitivity coefficients.« less

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

2012-04-01

The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a neighborhood of the reference parameter values with a second-order approximation. The comparison of the three sensitivity indices proved that the approximation of the non-linear model with a second-order expansion is sufficient to show some differences between the local and the global indices. As a general result, the sensitivity analysis showed that most of the model outcomes are mainly sensitive to the present-day surface temperature and accumulation, which, in principle, can be measured more easily (e.g., with remote sensing techniques) than the other input parameters considered. On the other hand, the parameters to which the model resulted less sensitive are the basal sliding coefficient and the mean ice shelves viscosity.

Sensitivity of Honeybee Hygroreceptors to Slow Humidity Changes and Temporal Humidity Variation Detected in High Resolution by Mobile Measurements

PubMed Central

Tichy, Harald; Kallina, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

The moist cell and the dry cell on the antenna of the male honeybee were exposed to humidities slowly rising and falling at rates between –1.5%/s and +1.5%/s and at varying amplitudes in the 10 to 90% humidity range. The two cells respond to these slow humidity oscillations with oscillations in impulse frequency which depend not only on instantaneous humidity but also on the rate with which humidity changes. The impulse frequency of each cell was plotted as a function of these two parameters and regression planes were fitted to the data points of single oscillation periods. The regression slopes, which estimate sensitivity, rose with the amplitude of humidity oscillations. During large-amplitude oscillations, moist and dry cell sensitivity for instantaneous humidity and its rate of change was high. During small-amplitude oscillations, their sensitivity for both parameters was low, less exactly reflecting humidity fluctuations. Nothing is known about the spatial and temporal humidity variations a honeybee may encounter when flying through natural environments. Microclimatic parameters (absolute humidity, temperature, wind speed) were measured from an automobile traveling through different landscapes of Lower Austria. Landscape type affected extremes and mean values of humidity. Differences between peaks and troughs of humidity fluctuations were generally smaller in open grassy fields or deciduous forests than in edge habitats or forest openings. Overall, fluctuation amplitudes were small. In this part of the stimulus range, hygroreceptor sensitivity is not optimal for encoding instantaneous humidity and the rate of humidity change. It seems that honeybee's hygroreceptors are specialized for detecting large-amplitude fluctuations that are relevant for a specific behavior, namely, maintaining a sufficiently stable state of water balance. The results suggest that optimal sensitivity of both hygroreceptors is shaped not only by humidity oscillation amplitudes but also according to their impact on behavior. PMID:24901985

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model; user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter-estimation processes and three post-processing programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary C.; Banta, E.R.; Harbaugh, A.W.; Anderman, E.R.

2000-01-01

This report documents the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Processes of the ground-water modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The Observation Process generates model-calculated values for comparison with measured, or observed, quantities. A variety of statistics is calculated to quantify this comparison, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, a number of files are produced that can be used to compare the values graphically. The Sensitivity Process calculates the sensitivity of hydraulic heads throughout the model with respect to specified parameters using the accurate sensitivity-equation method. These are called grid sensitivities. If the Observation Process is active, it uses the grid sensitivities to calculate sensitivities for the simulated values associated with the observations. These are called observation sensitivities. Observation sensitivities are used to calculate a number of statistics that can be used (1) to diagnose inadequate data, (2) to identify parameters that probably cannot be estimated by regression using the available observations, and (3) to evaluate the utility of proposed new data. The Parameter-Estimation Process uses a modified Gauss-Newton method to adjust values of user-selected input parameters in an iterative procedure to minimize the value of the weighted least-squares objective function. Statistics produced by the Parameter-Estimation Process can be used to evaluate estimated parameter values; statistics produced by the Observation Process and post-processing program RESAN-2000 can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the actual processes; statistics produced by post-processing program YCINT-2000 can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values. Parameters are defined in the Ground-Water Flow Process input files and can be used to calculate most model inputs, such as: for explicitly defined model layers, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, horizontal anisotropy, vertical hydraulic conductivity or vertical anisotropy, specific storage, and specific yield; and, for implicitly represented layers, vertical hydraulic conductivity. In addition, parameters can be defined to calculate the hydraulic conductance of the River, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates of the Recharge Package; maximum evapotranspiration of the Evapotranspiration Package; pumpage or the rate of flow at defined-flux boundaries of the Well Package; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. The spatial variation of model inputs produced using defined parameters is very flexible, including interpolated distributions that require the summation of contributions from different parameters. Observations can include measured hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, measured gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams), flows through constant-head boundaries, and advective transport through the system, which generally would be inferred from measured concentrations. MODFLOW-2000 is intended for use on any computer operating system. The program consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations and is fully compatible with the newer Fortran 95. The code is easily modified to be compatible with FORTRAN 77. Coordination for multiple processors is accommodated using Message Passing Interface (MPI) commands. The program is designed in a modular fashion that is intended to support inclusion of new capabilities.

Heart Rate and Reinforcement Sensitivity in ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luman, Marjolein; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Hyde, Christopher; van Meel, Catharina S.; Sergeant, Joseph A.

2007-01-01

Background: Both theoretical and clinical accounts of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) implicate a dysfunctional reinforcement system. This study investigated heart rate parameters in response to feedback associated with reward and response cost in ADHD children and controls aged 8 to 12. Methods: Heart rate responses (HRRs)…

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

Parameter sensitivity analysis of a lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions in series.

PubMed

Jamalian, Samira; Bertram, Christopher D; Richardson, William J; Moore, James E

2013-12-01

Any disruption of the lymphatic system due to trauma or injury can lead to edema. There is no effective cure for lymphedema, partly because predictive knowledge of lymphatic system reactions to interventions is lacking. A well-developed model of the system could greatly improve our understanding of its function. Lymphangions, defined as the vessel segment between two valves, are the individual pumping units. Based on our previous lumped-parameter model of a chain of lymphangions, this study aimed to identify the parameters that affect the system output the most using a sensitivity analysis. The system was highly sensitive to minimum valve resistance, such that variations in this parameter caused an order-of-magnitude change in time-average flow rate for certain values of imposed pressure difference. Average flow rate doubled when contraction frequency was increased within its physiological range. Optimum lymphangion length was found to be some 13-14.5 diameters. A peak of time-average flow rate occurred when transmural pressure was such that the pressure-diameter loop for active contractions was centered near maximum passive vessel compliance. Increasing the number of lymphangions in the chain improved the pumping in the presence of larger adverse pressure differences. For a given pressure difference, the optimal number of lymphangions increased with the total vessel length. These results indicate that further experiments to estimate valve resistance more accurately are necessary. The existence of an optimal value of transmural pressure may provide additional guidelines for increasing pumping in areas affected by edema.

Sensitivity of Turbine-Height Wind Speeds to Parameters in Planetary Boundary-Layer and Surface-Layer Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Qian, Yun; Berg, Larry K.

We evaluate the sensitivity of simulated turbine-height winds to 26 parameters applied in a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and a surface layer scheme of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over an area of complex terrain during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study. An efficient sampling algorithm and a generalized linear model are used to explore the multiple-dimensional parameter space and quantify the parametric sensitivity of modeled turbine-height winds. The results indicate that most of the variability in the ensemble simulations is contributed by parameters related to the dissipation of the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), Prandtl number, turbulencemore » length scales, surface roughness, and the von Kármán constant. The relative contributions of individual parameters are found to be dependent on both the terrain slope and atmospheric stability. The parameter associated with the TKE dissipation rate is found to be the most important one, and a larger dissipation rate can produce larger hub-height winds. A larger Prandtl number results in weaker nighttime winds. Increasing surface roughness reduces the frequencies of both extremely weak and strong winds, implying a reduction in the variability of the wind speed. All of the above parameters can significantly affect the vertical profiles of wind speed, the altitude of the low-level jet and the magnitude of the wind shear strength. The wind direction is found to be modulated by the same subset of influential parameters. Remainder of abstract is in attachment.« less

Effect of Cryogenic Treatment on Sensitization of 304 Stainless Steel in TIG Welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rupinder; Slathia, Ravinder Singh

2016-04-01

Stainless steel (SS) is sensitized by a thermal treatment in the range of 400-850 °C and inter-granular attack would occur upon subsequent exposure to certain media. In many practical situations, such as welding, sensitization is best studied by continuous cooling through the sensitizing temperature range wherein the variables are the peak temperature reached and the cooling rate in contrast to temperature and time of the isothermal hold which has been the customary practice. There are also various methods of controlling the inter-granular corrosion viz. lowering the carbon content, adding stabilizers and applying solution heat treatment but all these methods are either costly or difficult to apply. This study is focussed on the effect of cryogenically treated tungsten electrode of TIG welding on the sensitization behaviour of 304SS by taking into consideration the weld properties (like: hardness, tensile strength, percentage elongation and micro-structure). The parameters of significance are current, pulse frequency and gas flow rate. Further the study suggested that the results of non cryo treated electrode were better than the treated one on sensitization of welded joints during TIG welding within the range of selected parameters.

Cost Sensitivity Analysis for Consolidated Interim Storage of Spent Fuel: Evaluating the Effect of Economic Environment Parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cumberland, Riley M.; Williams, Kent Alan; Jarrell, Joshua J.

This report evaluates how the economic environment (i.e., discount rate, inflation rate, escalation rate) can impact previously estimated differences in lifecycle costs between an integrated waste management system with an interim storage facility (ISF) and a similar system without an ISF.

Reduction and Uncertainty Analysis of Chemical Mechanisms Based on Local and Global Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Gaetano

Numerical simulations of critical reacting flow phenomena in hypersonic propulsion devices require accurate representation of finite-rate chemical kinetics. The chemical kinetic models available for hydrocarbon fuel combustion are rather large, involving hundreds of species and thousands of reactions. As a consequence, they cannot be used in multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamic calculations in the foreseeable future due to the prohibitive computational cost. In addition to the computational difficulties, it is also known that some fundamental chemical kinetic parameters of detailed models have significant level of uncertainty due to limited experimental data available and to poor understanding of interactions among kinetic parameters. In the present investigation, local and global sensitivity analysis techniques are employed to develop a systematic approach of reducing and analyzing detailed chemical kinetic models. Unlike previous studies in which skeletal model reduction was based on the separate analysis of simple cases, in this work a novel strategy based on Principal Component Analysis of local sensitivity values is presented. This new approach is capable of simultaneously taking into account all the relevant canonical combustion configurations over different composition, temperature and pressure conditions. Moreover, the procedure developed in this work represents the first documented inclusion of non-premixed extinction phenomena, which is of great relevance in hypersonic combustors, in an automated reduction algorithm. The application of the skeletal reduction to a detailed kinetic model consisting of 111 species in 784 reactions is demonstrated. The resulting reduced skeletal model of 37--38 species showed that the global ignition/propagation/extinction phenomena of ethylene-air mixtures can be predicted within an accuracy of 2% of the full detailed model. The problems of both understanding non-linear interactions between kinetic parameters and identifying sources of uncertainty affecting relevant reaction pathways are usually addressed by resorting to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques. In particular, the most sensitive reactions controlling combustion phenomena are first identified using the Morris Method and then analyzed under the Random Sampling -- High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR) framework. The HDMR decomposition shows that 10% of the variance seen in the extinction strain rate of non-premixed flames is due to second-order effects between parameters, whereas the maximum concentration of acetylene, a key soot precursor, is affected by mostly only first-order contributions. Moreover, the analysis of the global sensitivity indices demonstrates that improving the accuracy of the reaction rates including the vinyl radical, C2H3, can drastically reduce the uncertainty of predicting targeted flame properties. Finally, the back-propagation of the experimental uncertainty of the extinction strain rate to the parameter space is also performed. This exercise, achieved by recycling the numerical solutions of the RS-HDMR, shows that some regions of the parameter space have a high probability of reproducing the experimental value of the extinction strain rate between its own uncertainty bounds. Therefore this study demonstrates that the uncertainty analysis of bulk flame properties can effectively provide information on relevant chemical reactions.

Sensitivity to Mental Effort and Test-Retest Reliability of Heart Rate Variability Measures in Healthy Seniors

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Shalini; Yadav, Rajeev; Yung, Iris; Zajdel, Daniel P.; Oken, Barry S.

2011-01-01

Objectives To determine 1) whether heart rate variability (HRV) was a sensitive and reliable measure in mental effort tasks carried out by healthy seniors and 2) whether non-linear approaches to HRV analysis, in addition to traditional time and frequency domain approaches were useful to study such effects. Methods Forty healthy seniors performed two visual working memory tasks requiring different levels of mental effort, while ECG was recorded. They underwent the same tasks and recordings two weeks later. Traditional and 13 non-linear indices of HRV including Poincaré, entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) were determined. Results Time domain (especially mean R-R interval/RRI), frequency domain and, among nonlinear parameters- Poincaré and DFA were the most reliable indices. Mean RRI, time domain and Poincaré were also the most sensitive to different mental effort task loads and had the largest effect size. Conclusions Overall, linear measures were the most sensitive and reliable indices to mental effort. In non-linear measures, Poincaré was the most reliable and sensitive, suggesting possible usefulness as an independent marker in cognitive function tasks in healthy seniors. Significance A large number of HRV parameters was both reliable as well as sensitive indices of mental effort, although the simple linear methods were the most sensitive. PMID:21459665

Evaluation of a Mysis bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chipps, S.R.; Bennett, D.H.

2002-01-01

Direct approaches for estimating the feeding rate of the opossum shrimp Mysis relicta can be hampered by variable gut residence time (evacuation rate models) and non-linear functional responses (clearance rate models). Bioenergetics modeling provides an alternative method, but the reliability of this approach needs to be evaluated using independent measures of growth and food consumption. In this study, we measured growth and food consumption for M. relicta and compared experimental results with those predicted from a Mysis bioenergetics model. For Mysis reared at 10??C, model predictions were not significantly different from observed values. Moreover, decomposition of mean square error indicated that 70% of the variation between model predictions and observed values was attributable to random error. On average, model predictions were within 12% of observed values. A sensitivity analysis revealed that Mysis respiration and prey energy density were the most sensitive parameters affecting model output. By accounting for uncertainty (95% CLs) in Mysis respiration, we observed a significant improvement in the accuracy of model output (within 5% of observed values), illustrating the importance of sensitive input parameters for model performance. These findings help corroborate the Mysis bioenergetics model and demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for estimating Mysis feeding rate.

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mokashi, A. R.

1981-01-01

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

An infrared optical pacing system for high-throughput screening of cardiac electrophysiology in human cardiomyocytes (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPheeters, Matt T.; Wang, Yves T.; Laurita, Kenneth R.; Jenkins, Michael W.

2017-02-01

Cardiomyocytes derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPS-HCM) have the potential to provide individualized therapies for patients and to test drug candidates for cardiac toxicity. In order for hiPS-CM to be useful for such applications, there is a need for high-throughput technology to rapidly assess cardiac electrophysiology parameters. Here, we designed and tested a fully contactless optical mapping (OM) and optical pacing (OP) system capable of imaging and point stimulation of hiPS-CM in small wells. OM allowed us to characterize cardiac electrophysiological parameters (conduction velocity, action potential duration, etc.) using voltage-sensitive dyes with high temporal and spatial resolution over the entire well. To improve OM signal-to-noise ratio, we tested a new voltage-sensitive dye (Fluovolt) for accuracy and phototoxicity. Stimulation is essential because most electrophysiological parameters are rate dependent; however, traditional methods utilizing electrical stimulation is difficult in small wells. To overcome this limitation, we utilized OP (λ = 1464 nm) to precisely control heart rate with spatial precision without the addition of exogenous agents. We optimized OP parameters (e.g., well size, pulse width, spot size) to achieve robust pacing and minimize the threshold radiant exposure. Finally, we tested system sensitivity using Flecainide, a drug with well described action on multiple electrophysiological properties.

Tolerability of loteprednol/tobramycin versus dexamethasone/tobramycin in healthy volunteers: results of a 4-week, randomized, double-masked, parallel-group study.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jimmy D; Holland, Edward J; Usner, Dale W; Paterno, Michael R; Comstock, Timothy L

2008-08-01

To compare the ocular comfort and tolerability of loteprednol etabonate 0.5%/tobramycin 0.3% (LE/T; Zylet) with dexamethasone 0.1%/tobramycin 0.3% (DM/T; TobraDex) in healthy volunteers. In this multicenter, randomized, double-masked, parallel-group study, healthy volunteers (n = 306) were randomized to receive LE/T or DM/T four times per day for 28 days. Subjects recorded subjective ratings for seven comfort/tolerability parameters using an electronic patient diary (EPD). The primary endpoint was the difference at week 4 from the ratings of an artificial tear at baseline in comfort/tolerability parameters between treatment groups, using a noninferiority paradigm. ClinicalTrials. gov, NCT 00532961. The 97.5% confidence intervals for the lower bound were within -10 for all of the seven comfort/ tolerability parameters evaluated (pain, stinging/burning, irritation, itchiness, foreign-body sensation, dryness, and light sensitivity). Secondary analysis revealed small but significant within-treatment differences in pain favoring LE/T over tears and in light sensitivity favoring tears over DM/T (p < 0.01). Small between-treatment differences in the changes from baseline tear ratings to individual study visits favored LE/T for pain, stinging/burning, irritation, itchiness, foreign-body sensation, and light sensitivity at visit 4 (p < or = 0.04); for pain, stinging/burning, and foreignbody sensation at visit 5 (p < or = 0.03), and for dryness and light sensitivity at visit 6 (p < or = 0.05). LE/T satisfied all conditions of noninferiority to DM/T in comfort and tolerability. Subjects receiving LE/T were more likely to report better ocular comfort/tolerability ratings relative to baseline artificial tears than subjects receiving DM/T. The study population consisted of healthy volunteers.

Application of a whole-body pharmacokinetic model for targeted radionuclide therapy to NM404 and FLT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grudzinski, Joseph J.; Floberg, John M.; Mudd, Sarah R.; Jeffery, Justin J.; Peterson, Eric T.; Nomura, Alice; Burnette, Ronald R.; Tomé, Wolfgang A.; Weichert, Jamey P.; Jeraj, Robert

2012-03-01

We have previously developed a model that provides relative dosimetry estimates for targeted radionuclide therapy (TRT) agents. The whole-body and tumor pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters of this model can be noninvasively measured with molecular imaging, providing a means of comparing potential TRT agents. Parameter sensitivities and noise will affect the accuracy and precision of the estimated PK values and hence dosimetry estimates. The aim of this work is to apply a PK model for TRT to two agents with different magnitudes of clearance rates, NM404 and FLT, explore parameter sensitivity with respect to time and investigate the effect of noise on parameter precision and accuracy. Twenty-three tumor bearing mice were injected with a ‘slow-clearing’ agent, 124I-NM404 (n = 10), or a ‘fast-clearing’ agent, 18F-FLT (3‧-deoxy-3‧-fluorothymidine) (n = 13) and imaged via micro-PET/CT pseudo-dynamically or dynamically, respectively. Regions of interest were drawn within the heart and tumor to create time-concentration curves for blood pool and tumor. PK analysis was performed to estimate the mean and standard error of the central compartment efflux-to-influx ratio (k12/k21), central elimination rate constant (kel), and tumor influx-to-efflux ratio (k34/k43), as well as the mean and standard deviation of the dosimetry estimates. NM404 and FLT parameter estimation results were used to analyze model accuracy and parameter sensitivity. The accuracy of the experimental sampling schedule was compared to that of an optimal sampling schedule found using Cramer-Rao lower bounds theory. Accuracy was assessed using correlation coefficient, bias and standard error of the estimate normalized to the mean (SEE/mean). The PK parameter estimation of NM404 yielded a central clearance, kel (0.009 ± 0.003 h-1), normal body retention, k12/k21 (0.69 ± 0.16), tumor retention, k34/k43 (1.44 ± 0.46) and predicted dosimetry, Dtumor (3.47 ± 1.24 Gy). The PK parameter estimation of FLT yielded a central elimination rate constant, kel (0.050 ± 0.025 min-1), normal body retention, k12/k21 (2.21 ± 0.62) and tumor retention, k34/k43 (0.65 ± 0.17), and predicted dosimetry, Dtumor (0.61 ± 0.20 Gy). Compared to experimental sampling, optimal sampling decreases the dosimetry bias and SEE/mean for NM404; however, it increases bias and decreases SEE/mean for FLT. For both NM404 and FLT, central compartment efflux rate constant, k12, and central compartment influx rate constant, k21, possess mirroring sensitivities at relatively early time points. The instantaneous concentration in the blood, C0, was most sensitive at early time points; central elimination, kel, and tumor efflux, k43, are most sensitive at later time points. A PK model for TRT was applied to both a slow-clearing, NM404, and a fast-clearing, FLT, agents in a xenograft murine model. NM404 possesses more favorable PK values according to the PK TRT model. The precise and accurate measurement of k12, k21, kel, k34 and k43 will translate into improved and precise dosimetry estimations. This work will guide the future use of this PK model for assessing the relative effectiveness of potential TRT agents.

Developing a methodology for the inverse estimation of root architectural parameters from field based sampling schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morandage, Shehan; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan; Javaux, Mathieu; Leitner, Daniel; Laloy, Eric; Vereecken, Harry

2017-04-01

Root traits are increasingly important in breading of new crop varieties. E.g., longer and fewer lateral roots are suggested to improve drought resistance of wheat. Thus, detailed root architectural parameters are important. However, classical field sampling of roots only provides more aggregated information such as root length density (coring), root counts per area (trenches) or root arrival curves at certain depths (rhizotubes). We investigate the possibility of obtaining the information about root system architecture of plants using field based classical root sampling schemes, based on sensitivity analysis and inverse parameter estimation. This methodology was developed based on a virtual experiment where a root architectural model was used to simulate root system development in a field, parameterized for winter wheat. This information provided the ground truth which is normally unknown in a real field experiment. The three sampling schemes coring, trenching, and rhizotubes where virtually applied to and aggregated information computed. Morris OAT global sensitivity analysis method was then performed to determine the most sensitive parameters of root architecture model for the three different sampling methods. The estimated means and the standard deviation of elementary effects of a total number of 37 parameters were evaluated. Upper and lower bounds of the parameters were obtained based on literature and published data of winter wheat root architectural parameters. Root length density profiles of coring, arrival curve characteristics observed in rhizotubes, and root counts in grids of trench profile method were evaluated statistically to investigate the influence of each parameter using five different error functions. Number of branches, insertion angle inter-nodal distance, and elongation rates are the most sensitive parameters and the parameter sensitivity varies slightly with the depth. Most parameters and their interaction with the other parameters show highly nonlinear effect to the model output. The most sensitive parameters will be subject to inverse estimation from the virtual field sampling data using DREAMzs algorithm. The estimated parameters can then be compared with the ground truth in order to determine the suitability of the sampling schemes to identify specific traits or parameters of the root growth model.

[Long-term outcome analysis of subjective and objective parameters after breast reduction in 159 cases: Patients judge differently from plastic surgeons].

PubMed

Osinga, Rik; Babst, Doris; Bodmer, Elvira S; Link, Bjoern C; Fritsche, Elmar; Hug, Urs

2017-12-01

This work assessed both subjective and objective postoperative parameters after breast reduction surgery and compared between patients and plastic surgeons. After an average postoperative observation period of 6.7 ± 2.7 (2 - 13) years, 159 out of 259 patients (61 %) were examined. The mean age at the time of surgery was 37 ± 14 (15 - 74) years. The postoperative anatomy of the breast and other anthropometric parameters were measured in cm with the patient in an upright position. The visual analogue scale (VAS) values for symmetry, size, shape, type of scar and overall satisfaction both from the patient's and from four plastic surgeons' perspectives were assessed and compared. Patients rated the postoperative result significantly better than surgeons. Good subjective ratings by patients for shape, symmetry and sensitivity correlated with high scores for overall assessment. Shape had the strongest influence on overall satisfaction (regression coefficient 0.357; p < 0.001), followed by symmetry (regression coefficient 0.239; p < 0.001) and sensitivity (regression coefficient 0.109; p = 0.040) of the breast. The better the subjective rating for symmetry by the patient, the smaller the measured difference of the jugulum-mamillary distance between left and right (regression coefficient -0.773; p = 0.002) and the smaller the difference in height of the lowest part of the breast between left and right (regression coefficient -0.465; p = 0.035). There was no significant correlation between age, weight, height, BMI, resected weight of the breast, postoperative breast size or type of scar with overall satisfaction. After breast reduction surgery, long-term outcome is rated significantly better by patients than by plastic surgeons. Good subjective ratings by patients for shape, symmetry and sensitivity correlated with high scores for overall assessment. Shape had the strongest influence on overall satisfaction, followed by symmetry and sensitivity of the breast. Postoperative size of the breast, resection weight, type of scar, age or BMI was not of significant influence. Symmetry was the only assessed subjective parameter of this study that could be objectified by postoperative measurements. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen models.

Interception loss, throughfall and stemflow in a maritime pine stand. II. An application of Gash's analytical model of interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loustau, D.; Berbigier, P.; Granier, A.

1992-10-01

Interception, throughfall and stemflow were determined in an 18-year-old maritime pine stand for a period of 30 months. This involved 71 rainfall events, each corresponding either to a single storm or to several storms. Gash's analytical model of interception was used to estimate the sensitivity of interception to canopy structure and climatic parameters. The seasonal cumulative interception loss corresponded to 12.6-21.0% of the amount of rainfall, whereas throughfall and stemflow accounted for 77-83% and 1-6%, respectively. On a seasonal basis, simulated data fitted the measured data satisfactorily ( r2 = 0.75). The rainfall partitioning between interception, throughfall and stemflow was shown to be sensitive to (1) the rainfall regime, i.e. the relative importance of light storms to total rainfall, (2) the climatic parameters, rainfall rate and average evaporation rate during storms, and (3) the canopy structure parameters of the model. The low interception rate of the canopy was attributed primarily to the low leaf area index of the stand.

Population viability analysis of Lower Missouri River shovelnose sturgeon with initial application to the pallid sturgeon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bajer, P.G.; Wildhaber, M.L.

2007-01-01

Demographic models for the shovelnose (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and pallid (S. albus) sturgeons in the Lower Missouri River were developed to conduct sensitivity analyses for both populations. Potential effects of increased fishing mortality on the shovelnose sturgeon were also evaluated. Populations of shovelnose and pallid sturgeon were most sensitive to age-0 mortality rates as well as mortality rates of juveniles and young adults. Overall, fecundity was a less sensitive parameter. However, increased fecundity effectively balanced higher mortality among sensitive age classes in both populations. Management that increases population-level fecundity and improves survival of age-0, juveniles, and young adults should most effectively benefit both populations. Evaluation of reproductive values indicated that populations of pallid sturgeon dominated by ages ≥35 could rapidly lose their potential for growth, particularly if recruitment remains low. Under the initial parameter values portraying current conditions the population of shovelnose sturgeon was predicted to decline by 1.65% annually, causing the commercial yield to also decline. Modeling indicated that the commercial yield could increase substantially if exploitation of females in ages ≤12 was highly restricted.

Relationships between psychological state, abuse, somatization and visceral pain sensitivity in irritable bowel syndrome

PubMed Central

Grinsvall, Cecilia; Törnblom, Hans; Tack, Jan; Van Oudenhove, Lukas; Simrén, Magnus

2018-01-01

Background and objective Psychological states may interfere with visceral sensitivity. Here we investigate associations between psychosocial factors and visceral sensitivity in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Methods Two IBS patient cohorts (Cohort 1: n = 231, Rome II; Cohort 2: n = 141, Rome III) underwent rectal barostat testing, and completed questionnaires for anxiety, depression, somatization, and abuse. The associations between questionnaire measures and visceral sensitivity parameters were analyzed in three-step general linear models (step1: demographic and abuse variables; step 2: anxiety and depression; step 3: somatization). Results Cohort 1. Pain threshold was positively associated with age and female gender, and negatively with adult sexual abuse and somatization. Pain referral area was negatively associated with age and positively with somatization and GI-specific anxiety, the latter effect mediated by somatization. Cohort 2. Pain threshold was positively associated with age and male gender, and negatively with adult sexual abuse. Pain intensity ratings were positively associated with somatization, female gender and depression, the latter effect mediated by somatization. Conclusion Somatization is associated with most visceral sensitivity parameters, and mediates the effect of some psychological factors on visceral sensitivity. It may reflect a psychobiological sensitization process driving symptom generation in IBS. In addition, abuse history was found to independently affect some visceral sensitivity parameters. PMID:29511560

Identification and synthetic modeling of factors affecting American black duck populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, Michael J.; Miller, Mark W.; Hines, James E.

2002-01-01

We reviewed the literature on factors potentially affecting the population status of American black ducks (Anas rupribes). Our review suggests that there is some support for the influence of 4 major, continental-scope factors in limiting or regulating black duck populations: 1) loss in the quantity or quality of breeding habitats; 2) loss in the quantity or quality of wintering habitats; 3) harvest, and 4) interactions (competition, hybridization) with mallards (Anas platyrhychos) during the breeding and/or wintering periods. These factors were used as the basis of an annual life cycle model in which reproduction rates and survival rates were modeled as functions of the above factors, with parameters of the model describing the strength of these relationships. Variation in the model parameter values allows for consideration of scientific uncertainty as to the degree each of these factors may be contributing to declines in black duck populations, and thus allows for the investigation of the possible effects of management (e.g., habitat improvement, harvest reductions) under different assumptions. We then used available, historical data on black duck populations (abundance, annual reproduction rates, and survival rates) and possible driving factors (trends in breeding and wintering habitats, harvest rates, and abundance of mallards) to estimate model parameters. Our estimated reproduction submodel included parameters describing negative density feedback of black ducks, positive influence of breeding habitat, and negative influence of mallard densities; our survival submodel included terms for positive influence of winter habitat on reproduction rates, and negative influences of black duck density (i.e., compensation to harvest mortality). Individual models within each group (reproduction, survival) involved various combinations of these factors, and each was given an information theoretic weight for use in subsequent prediction. The reproduction model with highest AIC weight (0.70) predicted black duck age ratios increasing as a function of decreasing mallard abundance and increasing acreage of breeding habitat; all models considered involved negative density dependence for black ducks. The survival model with highest AIC weight (0.51) predicted nonharvest survival increasing as a function of increasing acreage of wintering habitat and decreasing harvest rates (additive mortality); models involving compensatory mortality effects received ≈0.12 total weight, vs. 0.88 for additive models. We used the combined model, together with our historical data set, to perform a series of 1-year population forecasts, similar to those that might be performed under adaptive management. Initial model forecasts over-predicted observed breeding populations by ≈25%. Least-squares calibration reduced the bias to ≈0.5% under prediction. After calibration, model-averaged predictions over the 16 alternative models (4 reproduction × 4 survival, weighted by AIC model weights) explained 67% of the variation in annual breeding population abundance for black ducks, suggesting that it might have utility as a predictive tool in adaptive management. We investigated the effects of statistical uncertainty in parameter values on predicted population growth rates for the combined annual model, via sensitivity analyses. Parameter sensitivity varied in relation to the parameter values over the estimated confidence intervals, and in relation to harvest rates and mallard abundance. Forecasts of black duck abundance were extremely sensitive to variation in parameter values for the coefficients for breeding and wintering habitat effects. Model-averaged forecasts of black duck abundance were also sensitive to changes in harvest rate and mallard abundance, with rapid declines in black duck abundance predicted for a range of harvest rates and mallard abundance higher than current levels of either factor, but easily envisaged, particularly given current rates of growth for mallard populations. Because of concerns about sensitivity to habitat coefficients, and particularly in light of deficiencies in the historical data used to estimate these parameters, we developed a simplified model that excludes habitat effects. We also developed alternative models involving a calibration adjustment for reproduction rates, survival rates, or neither. Calibration of survival rates performed best (AIC weight 0.59, % BIAS = -0.280, R2=0.679), with reproduction calibration somewhat inferior (AIC weight 0.41, % BIAS = -0.267, R2=0.672); models without calibration received virtually no AIC weight and were discarded. We recommend that the simplified model set (4 biological models × 2 alternative calibration factors) be retained as the best working set of alternative models for research and management. Finally, we provide some preliminary guidance for the development of adaptive harvest management for black ducks, using our working set of models.

Hot deformation characteristics of AZ80 magnesium alloy: Work hardening effect and processing parameter sensitivities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Y.; Wan, L.; Guo, Z. H.

Isothermal compression experiment of AZ80 magnesium alloy was conducted by Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator in order to quantitatively investigate the work hardening (WH), strain rate sensitivity (SRS) and temperature sensitivity (TS) during hot processing of magnesium alloys. The WH, SRS and TS were described by Zener-Hollomon parameter (Z) coupling of deformation parameters. The relationships between WH rate and true strain as well as true stress were derived from Kocks-Mecking dislocation model and validated by our measurement data. The slope defined through the linear relationship of WH rate and true stress was only related to the annihilation coefficient Ω. Obvious WH behaviormore » could be exhibited at a higher Z condition. Furthermore, we have identified the correlation between the microstructural evolution including β-Mg17Al12 precipitation and the SRS and TS variations. Intensive dynamic recrystallization and homogeneous distribution of β-Mg17Al12 precipitates resulted in greater SRS coefficient at higher temperature. The deformation heat effect and β-Mg17Al12 precipitate content can be regarded as the major factors determining the TS behavior. At low Z condition, the SRS becomes stronger, in contrast to the variation of TS. The optimum hot processing window was validated based on the established SRS and TS values distribution maps for AZ80 magnesium alloy.« less

Sensitivity analysis in a Lassa fever deterministic mathematical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullahi, Mohammed Baba; Doko, Umar Chado; Mamuda, Mamman

2015-05-01

Lassa virus that causes the Lassa fever is on the list of potential bio-weapons agents. It was recently imported into Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States as a consequence of the rapid growth of international traffic. A model with five mutually exclusive compartments related to Lassa fever is presented and the basic reproduction number analyzed. A sensitivity analysis of the deterministic model is performed. This is done in order to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the disease transmission. The result of the sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameter is the human immigration, followed by human recovery rate, then person to person contact. This suggests that control strategies should target human immigration, effective drugs for treatment and education to reduced person to person contact.

Human sensitivity to differences in the rate of auditory cue change.

PubMed

Maloff, Erin S; Grantham, D Wesley; Ashmead, Daniel H

2013-05-01

Measurement of sensitivity to differences in the rate of change of auditory signal parameters is complicated by confounds among duration, extent, and velocity of the changing signal. Dooley and Moore [(1988) J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 84(4), 1332-1337] proposed a method for measuring sensitivity to rate of change using a duration discrimination task. They reported improved duration discrimination when an additional intensity or frequency change cue was present. The current experiments were an attempt to use this method to measure sensitivity to the rate of change in intensity and spatial position. Experiment 1 investigated whether duration discrimination was enhanced when additional cues of rate of intensity change, rate of spatial position change, or both were provided. Experiment 2 determined whether participant listening experience or the testing environment influenced duration discrimination task performance. Experiment 3 assessed whether duration discrimination could be used to measure sensitivity to rates of changes in intensity and spatial position for stimuli with lower rates of change, as well as emphasizing the constancy of the velocity cue. Results of these experiments showed that duration discrimination was impaired rather than enhanced by the additional velocity cues. The findings are discussed in terms of the demands of listening to concurrent changes along multiple auditory dimensions.

A model for hormonal control of the menstrual cycle: structural consistency but sensitivity with regard to data.

PubMed

Selgrade, J F; Harris, L A; Pasteur, R D

2009-10-21

This study presents a 13-dimensional system of delayed differential equations which predicts serum concentrations of five hormones important for regulation of the menstrual cycle. Parameters for the system are fit to two different data sets for normally cycling women. For these best fit parameter sets, model simulations agree well with the two different data sets but one model also has an abnormal stable periodic solution, which may represent polycystic ovarian syndrome. This abnormal cycle occurs for the model in which the normal cycle has estradiol levels at the high end of the normal range. Differences in model behavior are explained by studying hysteresis curves in bifurcation diagrams with respect to sensitive model parameters. For instance, one sensitive parameter is indicative of the estradiol concentration that promotes pituitary synthesis of a large amount of luteinizing hormone, which is required for ovulation. Also, it is observed that models with greater early follicular growth rates may have a greater risk of cycling abnormally.

More grain per drop of water: Screening rice genotype for physiological parameters of drought tolerance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massanelli, J.; Meadows-McDonnell, M.; Konzelman, C.; Moon, J. B.; Kumar, A.; Thomas, J.; Pereira, A.; Naithani, K. J.

2016-12-01

Meeting agricultural water demands is becoming progressively difficult due to population growth and changes in climate. Breeding stress-resilient crops is a viable solution, as information about genetic variation and their role in stress tolerance is becoming available due to advancement in technology. In this study we screened eight diverse rice genotypes for photosynthetic capacity under greenhouse conditions. These include the Asian rice (Oryza sativa) genotypes, drought sensitive Nipponbare, and a transgenic line overexpressing the HYR gene in Nipponbare; six genotypes (Vandana, Bengal, Nagina-22, Glaberrima, Kaybonnet, Ai Chueh Ta Pai Ku) and an African rice O. glaberrima, all selected for varying levels of drought tolerance. We collected CO2 and light response curve data under well-watered and simulated drought conditions in greenhouse. From these curves we estimated photosynthesis model parameters, such as the maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax), the maximum electron transport rate (Jmax), the maximum gross photosynthesis rate, daytime respiration (Rd), and quantum yield (f). Our results suggest that O. glaberrima and Nipponbare were the most sensitive to drought because Vcmax and Pgmax declined under drought conditions; other drought tolerant genotypes did not show significant changes in these model parameters. Our integrated approach, combining genetic information and photosynthesis modeling, shows promise to quantify drought response parameters and improve crop yield under drought stress conditions.

Comparison of gating dynamics of different IP3R channels with immune algorithm searching for channel parameter distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Xiuhong; Li, Xiang; Qi, Hong; Wei, Fang; Chen, Jianyong; Shuai, Jianwei

2016-10-01

The gating properties of the inositol 1, 4, 5-trisphosphate (IP3) receptor (IP3R) are determined by the binding and unbinding capability of Ca2+ ions and IP3 messengers. With the patch clamp experiments, the stationary properties have been discussed for Xenopus oocyte type-1 IP3R (Oo-IP3R1), type-3 IP3R (Oo-IP3R3) and Spodoptera frugiperda IP3R (Sf-IP3R). In this paper, in order to provide insights about the relation between the observed gating characteristics and the gating parameters in different IP3Rs, we apply the immune algorithm to fit the parameters of a modified DeYoung-Keizer model. By comparing the fitting parameter distributions of three IP3Rs, we suggest that the three types of IP3Rs have the similar open sensitivity in responding to IP3. The Oo-IP3R3 channel is easy to open in responding to low Ca2+ concentration, while Sf-IP3R channel is easily inhibited in responding to high Ca2+ concentration. We also show that the IP3 binding rate is not a sensitive parameter for stationary gating dynamics for three IP3Rs, but the inhibitory Ca2+ binding/unbinding rates are sensitive parameters for gating dynamics for both Oo-IP3R1 and Oo-IP3R3 channels. Such differences may be important in generating the spatially and temporally complex Ca2+ oscillations in cells. Our study also demonstrates that the immune algorithm can be applied for model parameter searching in biological systems.

[Research on optimization of mathematical model of flow injection-hydride generation-atomic fluorescence spectrometry].

PubMed

Cui, Jian; Zhao, Xue-Hong; Wang, Yan; Xiao, Ya-Bing; Jiang, Xue-Hui; Dai, Li

2014-01-01

Flow injection-hydride generation-atomic fluorescence spectrometry was a widely used method in the industries of health, environmental, geological and metallurgical fields for the merit of high sensitivity, wide measurement range and fast analytical speed. However, optimization of this method was too difficult as there exist so many parameters affecting the sensitivity and broadening. Generally, the optimal conditions were sought through several experiments. The present paper proposed a mathematical model between the parameters and sensitivity/broadening coefficients using the law of conservation of mass according to the characteristics of hydride chemical reaction and the composition of the system, which was proved to be accurate as comparing the theoretical simulation and experimental results through the test of arsanilic acid standard solution. Finally, this paper has put a relation map between the parameters and sensitivity/broadening coefficients, and summarized that GLS volume, carrier solution flow rate and sample loop volume were the most factors affecting sensitivity and broadening coefficients. Optimizing these three factors with this relation map, the relative sensitivity was advanced by 2.9 times and relative broadening was reduced by 0.76 times. This model can provide a theoretical guidance for the optimization of the experimental conditions.

Zebrafish as a possible bioindicator of organic pollutants with effects on reproduction in drinking waters.

PubMed

Martínez-Sales, M; García-Ximénez, F; Espinós, F J

2015-07-01

Organic contaminants can be detected at low concentrations in drinking water, raising concerns for human health, particularly in reproduction. In this respect, we attempted to use the zebrafish as a bioindicator to detect the possible presence of these substances in drinking water, aiming to define the most relevant parameters to detect these substances, which particularly affect the development and reproduction of zebrafish. To this end, batches of 30 embryos with the chorion intact were cultured in drinking waters from different sources, throughout their full life-cycle up to 5 months, in 20 L tanks. Six replicates were performed in all water groups, with a total of 24 aquariums. Two generations (F0 and F1) were studied and the following parameters were tested: in the F0 generation, survival and abnormality rates evaluated at 5 dpf (days post-fertilization) and at 5 mpf (months post-fertilization), the onset of spawning and the fertility rate from 3 mpf to 5 mpf, and the sex ratio and underdeveloped specimens at 5 mpf. Furthermore, in the F0 offspring (F1), survival and abnormality rates were evaluated at 5 dpf and the hatching rate at 72 hpf. These results revealed that the hatching rate is the most sensitive parameter to distinguish different levels of effects between waters during the early life stages, whereas the rate of underdeveloped specimens is more suitable at later life stages. Regarding adult reproduction, fertility rate was the most sensitive parameter. The possible reversibility or accumulative nature of such effects will be studied in future work. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sensitivity to mental effort and test-retest reliability of heart rate variability measures in healthy seniors.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Shalini; Yadav, Rajeev; Yung, Iris; Zajdel, Daniel P; Oken, Barry S

2011-10-01

To determine (1) whether heart rate variability (HRV) was a sensitive and reliable measure in mental effort tasks carried out by healthy seniors and (2) whether non-linear approaches to HRV analysis, in addition to traditional time and frequency domain approaches were useful to study such effects. Forty healthy seniors performed two visual working memory tasks requiring different levels of mental effort, while ECG was recorded. They underwent the same tasks and recordings 2 weeks later. Traditional and 13 non-linear indices of HRV including Poincaré, entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) were determined. Time domain, especially mean R-R interval (RRI), frequency domain and, among non-linear parameters - Poincaré and DFA were the most reliable indices. Mean RRI, time domain and Poincaré were also the most sensitive to different mental effort task loads and had the largest effect size. Overall, linear measures were the most sensitive and reliable indices to mental effort. In non-linear measures, Poincaré was the most reliable and sensitive, suggesting possible usefulness as an independent marker in cognitive function tasks in healthy seniors. A large number of HRV parameters was both reliable as well as sensitive indices of mental effort, although the simple linear methods were the most sensitive. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of pulse pileup model parameter in photon counting detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shunhavanich, Picha; Pelc, Norbert J.

2017-03-01

Photon counting detectors (PCDs) may provide several benefits over energy-integrating detectors (EIDs), including spectral information for tissue characterization and the elimination of electronic noise. PCDs, however, suffer from pulse pileup, which distorts the detected spectrum and degrades the accuracy of material decomposition. Several analytical models have been proposed to address this problem. The performance of these models are dependent on the assumptions used, including the estimated pulse shape whose parameter values could differ from the actual physical ones. As the incident flux increases and the corrections become more significant the needed parameter value accuracy may be more crucial. In this work, the sensitivity of model parameter accuracies is analyzed for the pileup model of Taguchi et al. The spectra distorted by pileup at different count rates are simulated using either the model or Monte Carlo simulations, and the basis material thicknesses are estimated by minimizing the negative log-likelihood with Poisson or multivariate Gaussian distributions. From simulation results, we find that the accuracy of the deadtime, the height of pulse negative tail, and the timing to the end of the pulse are more important than most other parameters, and they matter more with increasing count rate. This result can help facilitate further work on parameter calibrations.

Reliability of a new biokinetic model of zirconium in internal dosimetry: part II, parameter sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Li, Wei Bo; Greiter, Matthias; Oeh, Uwe; Hoeschen, Christoph

2011-12-01

The reliability of biokinetic models is essential for the assessment of internal doses and a radiation risk analysis for the public and occupational workers exposed to radionuclides. In the present study, a method for assessing the reliability of biokinetic models by means of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis was developed. In the first part of the paper, the parameter uncertainty was analyzed for two biokinetic models of zirconium (Zr); one was reported by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), and one was developed at the Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health (HMGU). In the second part of the paper, the parameter uncertainties and distributions of the Zr biokinetic models evaluated in Part I are used as the model inputs for identifying the most influential parameters in the models. Furthermore, the most influential model parameter on the integral of the radioactivity of Zr over 50 y in source organs after ingestion was identified. The results of the systemic HMGU Zr model showed that over the first 10 d, the parameters of transfer rates between blood and other soft tissues have the largest influence on the content of Zr in the blood and the daily urinary excretion; however, after day 1,000, the transfer rate from bone to blood becomes dominant. For the retention in bone, the transfer rate from blood to bone surfaces has the most influence out to the endpoint of the simulation; the transfer rate from blood to the upper larger intestine contributes a lot in the later days; i.e., after day 300. The alimentary tract absorption factor (fA) influences mostly the integral of radioactivity of Zr in most source organs after ingestion.

Assessment of Giant Duckweed (Spirodela polyrhiza L. Schleiden) Turions as Model Objects in Ecotoxicological Applications.

PubMed

Oláh, Viktor; Hepp, Anna; Mészáros, Ilona

2016-05-01

In this study germination of Spirodela polyrhiza (L.) Schleiden (giant duckweed) turions was assessed under cadmium exposure to test applicability of a novel turion-based ecotoxicology method. Floating success of germinating turions, protrusion of the first and subsequent fronds as test endpoints were investigated and compared to results of standard duckweed growth inhibition tests with fronds of the same species. Our results indicate that turions can be used to characterize effects of toxic substances. Initial phase of turion germination (floating up and appearance of the first frond) was less sensitive to Cd treatments than the subsequent frond production. The calculated effective concentrations for growth rates in turion and normal frond tests were similar. Single frond area produced by germinating turions proved to be the most sensitive test endpoint. Single frond area and colony disintegration as additionally measured parameters in normal frond cultures also changed due to Cd treatments but the sensitivity of these parameters was lower than that of growth rates.

The DSM-5 Self-Rated Level 1 Cross-Cutting Symptom Measure as a Screening Tool.

PubMed

Bastiaens, Leo; Galus, James

2018-03-01

The DSM-5 Self-Rated Level 1 Cross-Cutting Symptom Measure was developed to aid clinicians with a dimensional assessment of psychopathology; however, this measure resembles a screening tool for several symptomatic domains. The objective of the current study was to examine the basic parameters of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive power of the measure as a screening tool. One hundred and fifty patients in a correctional community center filled out the measure prior to a psychiatric evaluation, including the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview screen. The above parameters were calculated for the domains of depression, mania, anxiety, and psychosis. The results showed that the sensitivity and positive predictive power of the studied domains was poor because of a high rate of false positive answers on the measure. However, when the lowest threshold on the Cross-Cutting Symptom Measure was used, the sensitivity of the anxiety and psychosis domains and the negative predictive values for mania, anxiety and psychosis were good. In conclusion, while it is foreseeable that some clinicians may use the DSM-5 Self-Rated Level 1 Cross-Cutting Symptom Measure as a screening tool, it should not be relied on to identify positive findings. It functioned well in the negative prediction of mania, anxiety and psychosis symptoms.

Global sensitivity analysis of groundwater transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvetkovic, V.; Soltani, S.; Vigouroux, G.

2015-12-01

In this work we address the model and parametric sensitivity of groundwater transport using the Lagrangian-Stochastic Advection-Reaction (LaSAR) methodology. The 'attenuation index' is used as a relevant and convenient measure of the coupled transport mechanisms. The coefficients of variation (CV) for seven uncertain parameters are assumed to be between 0.25 and 3.5, the highest value being for the lower bound of the mass transfer coefficient k0 . In almost all cases, the uncertainties in the macro-dispersion (CV = 0.35) and in the mass transfer rate k0 (CV = 3.5) are most significant. The global sensitivity analysis using Sobol and derivative-based indices yield consistent rankings on the significance of different models and/or parameter ranges. The results presented here are generic however the proposed methodology can be easily adapted to specific conditions where uncertainty ranges in models and/or parameters can be estimated from field and/or laboratory measurements.

Non-steady state simulation of BOM removal in drinking water biofilters: model development.

PubMed

Hozalski, R M; Bouwer, E J

2001-01-01

A numerical model was developed to simulate the non-steady-state behavior of biologically-active filters used for drinking water treatment. The biofilter simulation model called "BIOFILT" simulates the substrate (biodegradable organic matter or BOM) and biomass (both attached and suspended) profiles in a biofilter as a function of time. One of the innovative features of BIOFILT compared to previous biofilm models is the ability to simulate the effects of a sudden loss in attached biomass or biofilm due to filter backwash on substrate removal performance. A sensitivity analysis of the model input parameters indicated that the model simulations were most sensitive to the values of parameters that controlled substrate degradation and biofilm growth and accumulation including the substrate diffusion coefficient, the maximum rate of substrate degradation, the microbial yield coefficient, and a dimensionless shear loss coefficient. Variation of the hydraulic loading rate or other parameters that controlled the deposition of biomass via filtration did not significantly impact the simulation results.

Parameter and Process Significance in Mechanistic Modeling of Cellulose Hydrolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotter, B.; Barry, A.; Gerhard, J.; Small, J.; Tahar, B.

2005-12-01

The rate of cellulose hydrolysis, and of associated microbial processes, is important in determining the stability of landfills and their potential impact on the environment, as well as associated time scales. To permit further exploration in this field, a process-based model of cellulose hydrolysis was developed. The model, which is relevant to both landfill and anaerobic digesters, includes a novel approach to biomass transfer between a cellulose-bound biofilm and biomass in the surrounding liquid. Model results highlight the significance of the bacterial colonization of cellulose particles by attachment through contact in solution. Simulations revealed that enhanced colonization, and therefore cellulose degradation, was associated with reduced cellulose particle size, higher biomass populations in solution, and increased cellulose-binding ability of the biomass. A sensitivity analysis of the system parameters revealed different sensitivities to model parameters for a typical landfill scenario versus that for an anaerobic digester. The results indicate that relative surface area of cellulose and proximity of hydrolyzing bacteria are key factors determining the cellulose degradation rate.

Evaluation of GaAs low noise and power MMIC technologies to neutron, ionizing dose and dose rate effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Derewonko, H.; Bosella, A.; Pataut, G.

1996-06-01

An evaluation program of Thomson CSF-TCS GaAs low noise and power MMIC technologies to 1 MeV equivalent neutron fluence levels, up to 1 {times} 10{sup 15} n/cm{sup 2}, ionizing 1.17--1.33 MeV CO{sup 60} dose levels in excess of 200 Mrad(GaAs) and dose rate levels reaching 1.89 {times} 10{sup 11} rad(GaAs)/s is presented in terms of proper components and parameter choices, DC/RF electrical measurements and test methods under irradiation. Experimental results are explained together with drift analyses of electrical parameters that have determined threshold limits of component degradations. Modelling the effects of radiation on GaAs components relies on degradation analysis ofmore » active layer which appears to be the most sensitive factor. MMICs degradation under neutron fluence was simulated from irradiated FET data. Finally, based on sensitivity of technological parameters, rad-hard design including material, technology and MMIC design enhancement is discussed.« less

A simple reactive-transport model of calcite precipitation in soils and other porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, G. J. D.; Versteegen, A.; Ritz, K.; Milodowski, A. E.

2015-09-01

Calcite formation in soils and other porous media generally occurs around a localised source of reactants, such as a plant root or soil macro-pore, and the rate depends on the transport of reactants to and from the precipitation zone as well as the kinetics of the precipitation reaction itself. However most studies are made in well mixed systems, in which such transport limitations are largely removed. We developed a mathematical model of calcite precipitation near a source of base in soil, allowing for transport limitations and precipitation kinetics. We tested the model against experimentally-determined rates of calcite precipitation and reactant concentration-distance profiles in columns of soil in contact with a layer of HCO3--saturated exchange resin. The model parameter values were determined independently. The agreement between observed and predicted results was satisfactory given experimental limitations, indicating that the model correctly describes the important processes. A sensitivity analysis showed that all model parameters are important, indicating a simpler treatment would be inadequate. The sensitivity analysis showed that the amount of calcite precipitated and the spread of the precipitation zone were sensitive to parameters controlling rates of reactant transport (soil moisture content, salt content, pH, pH buffer power and CO2 pressure), as well as to the precipitation rate constant. We illustrate practical applications of the model with two examples: pH changes and CaCO3 precipitation in the soil around a plant root, and around a soil macro-pore containing a source of base such as urea.

Continuous and Delayed Photohemolysis Sensitized With Methylene Blue and Iron Oxide Nanoparticles (Fe3O4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Akhras, M.-Ali; Aljarrah, Khaled; Albiss, Borhan; Alhaji Bala, Abba

2015-10-01

This research present the sensitization of methylene blue (MB), as a potential photodynamic therapy photo sensitizer which showed phototoxicity for many tumor cells in vitro incorporated with iron oxide nanoparticles (Fe3O4, IO-NP), which offer magnificent interaction both inside and outside the surface of biomolecules together with red blood cells (RBC's) with significant change in hemolysis process. The study investigated the sensitization of continuous photohemolysis (CPH) for MB and MB with IO-NP, delayed photohemolysis (DPH) at different irradiation temperature (Tirr). The photohemolysis rate for CPH at room temperature has a power dependence of 0.39 ± 0.05 with relative of steepness of 1.25 ± 0.02 and for different concentration of MB and power dependent of 0.15 ± 0.03 with relative steepness of 1.34 ± 0.01 for different MB and IO-NP. Logistic and Gompertz functions were applied as appropriate mathematical models to fit the collected experimental data for CPH and DPH respectively, and to calculate fractional photohemolysis rate with minimum errors. The Logistic function parameter; α, the hemolysis rate, increases with increasing concentrations of MB and decreases with increasing IO-NP concentrations in the presence of 6 μg/ml of MB. The parameter β the time required to reduce the maximum number of RBCs to one half of its value, decreases with increasing MB concentration and increases with increasing IO-NP concentrations in the presence of 6 pg/ml of MB. In DPH at different Tirr, the Gompertz parameter; a, fractional hemolysis ratio, is independent of temperature in both case MB and MB plus IO-NP, while the parameter; b, rate of fractional hemolysis change, increases with increasing Tirr, in both case MB and MB plus IO-NP. The apparent activation energy of colloid-osmotic hemolysis is 9.47±0.01 Kcal/mol with relative steepness of 1.31 ± 0.05 for different MB and 6.06±0.03 Kcal/mol with relative steepness of 1.41 ± 0.09 for MB with iron oxide. Our results suggest that Logistic equation is the best fit for the CPH and Gompertz function for the DPH. Both models predict also that the relative steepness is independent of the light dose, sensitizer and IO-NP concentrations.

Microbially enhanced dissolution and reductive dechlorination of PCE by a mixed culture: Model validation and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Abriola, Linda M.; Amos, Benjamin K.; Suchomel, Eric J.; Pennell, Kurt D.; Löffler, Frank E.; Christ, John A.

2013-08-01

Reductive dechlorination catalyzed by organohalide-respiring bacteria is often considered for remediation of non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) source zones due to cost savings, ease of implementation, regulatory acceptance, and sustainability. Despite knowledge of the key dechlorinators, an understanding of the processes and factors that control NAPL dissolution rates and detoxification (i.e., ethene formation) is lacking. A recent column study demonstrated a 5-fold cumulative enhancement in tetrachloroethene (PCE) dissolution and ethene formation (Amos et al., 2009). Spatial and temporal monitoring of key geochemical and microbial (i.e., Geobacter lovleyi and Dehalococcoides mccartyi strains) parameters in the column generated a data set used herein as the basis for refinement and testing of a multiphase, compositional transport model. The refined model is capable of simulating the reactive transport of multiple chemical constituents produced and consumed by organohalide-respiring bacteria and accounts for substrate limitations and competitive inhibition. Parameter estimation techniques were used to optimize the values of sensitive microbial kinetic parameters, including maximum utilization rates, biomass yield coefficients, and endogenous decay rates. Comparison and calibration of model simulations with the experimental data demonstrate that the model is able to accurately reproduce measured effluent concentrations, while delineating trends in dechlorinator growth and reductive dechlorination kinetics along the column. Sensitivity analyses performed on the optimized model parameters indicate that the rates of PCE and cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cis-DCE) transformation and Dehalococcoides growth govern bioenhanced dissolution, as long as electron donor (i.e., hydrogen flux) is not limiting. Dissolution enhancements were shown to be independent of cis-DCE accumulation; however, accumulation of cis-DCE, as well as column length and flow rate (i.e., column residence time), strongly influenced the extent of reductive dechlorination. When cis-DCE inhibition was neglected, the model over-predicted ethene production ten-fold, while reductions in residence time (i.e., a two-fold decrease in column length or two-fold increase in flow rate) resulted in a more than 70% decline in ethene production. These results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in microbial community composition and activity must be understood to model, predict, and manage bioenhanced NAPL dissolution.

Framework for making better predictions by directly estimating variables' predictivity.

PubMed

Lo, Adeline; Chernoff, Herman; Zheng, Tian; Lo, Shaw-Hwa

2016-12-13

We propose approaching prediction from a framework grounded in the theoretical correct prediction rate of a variable set as a parameter of interest. This framework allows us to define a measure of predictivity that enables assessing variable sets for, preferably high, predictivity. We first define the prediction rate for a variable set and consider, and ultimately reject, the naive estimator, a statistic based on the observed sample data, due to its inflated bias for moderate sample size and its sensitivity to noisy useless variables. We demonstrate that the [Formula: see text]-score of the PR method of VS yields a relatively unbiased estimate of a parameter that is not sensitive to noisy variables and is a lower bound to the parameter of interest. Thus, the PR method using the [Formula: see text]-score provides an effective approach to selecting highly predictive variables. We offer simulations and an application of the [Formula: see text]-score on real data to demonstrate the statistic's predictive performance on sample data. We conjecture that using the partition retention and [Formula: see text]-score can aid in finding variable sets with promising prediction rates; however, further research in the avenue of sample-based measures of predictivity is much desired.

Framework for making better predictions by directly estimating variables’ predictivity

PubMed Central

Chernoff, Herman; Lo, Shaw-Hwa

2016-01-01

We propose approaching prediction from a framework grounded in the theoretical correct prediction rate of a variable set as a parameter of interest. This framework allows us to define a measure of predictivity that enables assessing variable sets for, preferably high, predictivity. We first define the prediction rate for a variable set and consider, and ultimately reject, the naive estimator, a statistic based on the observed sample data, due to its inflated bias for moderate sample size and its sensitivity to noisy useless variables. We demonstrate that the I-score of the PR method of VS yields a relatively unbiased estimate of a parameter that is not sensitive to noisy variables and is a lower bound to the parameter of interest. Thus, the PR method using the I-score provides an effective approach to selecting highly predictive variables. We offer simulations and an application of the I-score on real data to demonstrate the statistic’s predictive performance on sample data. We conjecture that using the partition retention and I-score can aid in finding variable sets with promising prediction rates; however, further research in the avenue of sample-based measures of predictivity is much desired. PMID:27911830

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

Modeling and sensitivity analysis on the transport of aluminum oxide nanoparticles in saturated sand: effects of ionic strength, flow rate, and nanoparticle concentration.

PubMed

Rahman, Tanzina; Millwater, Harry; Shipley, Heather J

2014-11-15

Aluminum oxide nanoparticles have been widely used in various consumer products and there are growing concerns regarding their exposure in the environment. This study deals with the modeling, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of one-dimensional transport of nano-sized (~82 nm) aluminum oxide particles in saturated sand. The transport of aluminum oxide nanoparticles was modeled using a two-kinetic-site model with a blocking function. The modeling was done at different ionic strengths, flow rates, and nanoparticle concentrations. The two sites representing fast and slow attachments along with a blocking term yielded good agreement with the experimental results from the column studies of aluminum oxide nanoparticles. The same model was used to simulate breakthrough curves under different conditions using experimental data and calculated 95% confidence bounds of the generated breakthroughs. The sensitivity analysis results showed that slow attachment was the most sensitive parameter for high influent concentrations (e.g. 150 mg/L Al2O3) and the maximum solid phase retention capacity (related to blocking function) was the most sensitive parameter for low concentrations (e.g. 50 mg/L Al2O3). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilizing a one-dimensional multispecies model to simulate the nutrient reduction and biomass structure in two types of H2-based membrane-aeration biofilm reactors (H2-MBfR): model development and parametric analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Zuowei; Xia, Siqing; Xu, Xiaoyin; Wang, Chenhui

2016-02-01

In this study, a one-dimensional multispecies model (ODMSM) was utilized to simulate NO3(-)-N and ClO4(-) reduction performances in two kinds of H2-based membrane-aeration biofilm reactors (H2-MBfR) within different operating conditions (e.g., NO3(-)-N/ClO4(-) loading rates, H2 partial pressure, etc.). Before the simulation process, we conducted the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters which would fluctuate in different environmental conditions, then we used the experimental data to calibrate the more sensitive parameters μ1 and μ2 (maximum specific growth rates of denitrification bacteria and perchlorate reduction bacteria) in two H2-MBfRs, and the diversity of the two key parameters' values in two types of reactors may be resulted from the different carbon source fed in the reactors. From the simulation results of six different operating conditions (four in H2-MBfR 1 and two in H2-MBfR 2), the applicability of the model was approved, and the variation of the removal tendency in different operating conditions could be well simulated. Besides, the rationality of operating parameters (H2 partial pressure, etc.) could be judged especially in condition of high nutrients' loading rates. To a certain degree, the model could provide theoretical guidance to determine the operating parameters on some specific conditions in practical application.

Temperature Crosstalk Sensitivity of the Kummerow Rainfall Algorithm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Petrenko, Boris

1999-01-01

Even though the signal source for passive microwave retrievals is thermal emission, retrievals of non-temperature geophysical parameters typically do not explicitly take into account the effects of temperature change on the retrievals. For global change research, changes in geophysical parameters (e.g. water vapor, rainfall, etc.) are referenced to the accompanying changes in temperature. If the retrieval of a certain parameter has a cross-talk response from temperature change alone, the retrievals might not be very useful for climate research. We investigated the sensitivity of the Kummerow rainfall retrieval algorithm to changes in air temperature. It was found that there was little net change in total rainfall with air temperature change. However, there were non-negligible changes within individual rain rate categories.

Correlation of Rupture Life, Creep Rate, and Microstructure for Type 304 Stainless Steel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swindeman, R. W.; Moteff, J.

1983-01-01

The stress and temperature sensitivites of the rupture life and secondary creep rate were examined in detail for a single heat of type 304 stainless steel (9T2796). Assuming that the rupture life has a power law stress dependency, relatively small differences in the stress exponent were observed over a broad range of stress and temperature. In contrast, large changes were observed for equivalent parameter for secondary creep rate. As a result of these differences, the Monkman-Grant correlation was sensitive to stress and temperature below 650 C. Metallurgical studies based on light and transmission electron microscopy suggested that the temperature and stress sensitivities of secondary creep rate at temperatures below 650 C were related to features of the substructure not present at higher temperature. Specifically, the presence of a fine dislocation network stabilized by precipitates altered the stress and temperature sensitivities relative to what might be expected from high temperature studies.

Space Shuttle Orbiter flight heating rate measurement sensitivity to thermal protection system uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradley, P. F.; Throckmorton, D. A.

1981-01-01

A study was completed to determine the sensitivity of computed convective heating rates to uncertainties in the thermal protection system thermal model. Those parameters considered were: density, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of both the reusable surface insulation and its coating; coating thickness and emittance; and temperature measurement uncertainty. The assessment used a modified version of the computer program to calculate heating rates from temperature time histories. The original version of the program solves the direct one dimensional heating problem and this modified version of The program is set up to solve the inverse problem. The modified program was used in thermocouple data reduction for shuttle flight data. Both nominal thermal models and altered thermal models were used to determine the necessity for accurate knowledge of thermal protection system's material thermal properties. For many thermal properties, the sensitivity (inaccuracies created in the calculation of convective heating rate by an altered property) was very low.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of control strategies using the benchmark simulation model No1 (BSM1).

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

2009-01-01

The objective of this paper is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the predictions of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) No. 1, when comparing four activated sludge control strategies. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to evaluate the uncertainty in the BSM1 predictions, considering the ASM1 bio-kinetic parameters and influent fractions as input uncertainties while the Effluent Quality Index (EQI) and the Operating Cost Index (OCI) are focused on as model outputs. The resulting Monte Carlo simulations are presented using descriptive statistics indicating the degree of uncertainty in the predicted EQI and OCI. Next, the Standard Regression Coefficients (SRC) method is used for sensitivity analysis to identify which input parameters influence the uncertainty in the EQI predictions the most. The results show that control strategies including an ammonium (S(NH)) controller reduce uncertainty in both overall pollution removal and effluent total Kjeldahl nitrogen. Also, control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the effluent nitrate (S(NO)) uncertainty increasing both their economical cost and variability as a trade-off. Finally, the maximum specific autotrophic growth rate (micro(A)) causes most of the variance in the effluent for all the evaluated control strategies. The influence of denitrification related parameters, e.g. eta(g) (anoxic growth rate correction factor) and eta(h) (anoxic hydrolysis rate correction factor), becomes less important when a S(NO) controller manipulating an external carbon source addition is implemented.

Nitric oxide production in the stratosphere within the Space Shuttle's solid rocket motor plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gomberg, R. I.; Brannan, J. R.; Boney, L. R.

1978-01-01

This study focuses on establishing the sensitivity of predictions of NO production to uncertainties in altitude, reaction rate coefficients, turbulent mixing rates, and Mach disk size and location. The results show that relatively large variations in parameters related to these phenomena had surprisingly little effect on predicted NO production.

Assessing alternatives for directional detection of a halo of weakly interacting massive particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copi, Craig J.; Krauss, Lawrence M.; Simmons-Duffin, David; Stroiney, Steven R.

2007-01-01

The future of direct terrestrial WIMP detection lies on two fronts: new, much larger low background detectors sensitive to energy deposition, and detectors with directional sensitivity. The former can explore a large range of WIMP parameter space using well-tested technology while the latter may be necessary if one is to disentangle particle physics parameters from astrophysical halo parameters. Because directional detectors will be quite difficult to construct it is worthwhile exploring in advance generally which experimental features will yield the greatest benefits at the lowest costs. We examine the sensitivity of directional detectors with varying angular tracking resolution with and without the ability to distinguish forward versus backward recoils, and compare these to the sensitivity of a detector where the track is projected onto a two-dimensional plane. The latter detector regardless of where it is placed on the Earth, can be oriented to produce a significantly better discrimination signal than a 3D detector without this capability, and with sensitivity within a factor of 2 of a full 3D tracking detector. Required event rates to distinguish signals from backgrounds for a simple isothermal halo range from the low teens in the best case to many thousands in the worst.

Oxyfluorfen toxic effect on S. obliquus evaluated by different photosynthetic and enzymatic biomarkers.

PubMed

Geoffroy, L; Dewez, D; Vernet, G; Popovic, R

2003-11-01

The effect of oxyfluorfen was investigated when alga Scenedesmus obliquus has been exposed to different concentrations (7.5, 15, and 22.5 microg x L(-1)) at 12, 24, and 48 hours of exposure. Toxicity test was done by using 13 biomarkers concerning growth rate, chlorophyll content and indicators of photosynthetic and antioxidant enzyme activities. The change of the 13 parameters showed a great variation of sensitivity indicating differences in parameters' suitability to be used as biomarkers when alga culture was exposed to oxyfluorfen toxicity. The order of sensitivity between those biomarkers was: Antenna size (ABS/RC) > Chlorophyll content > Catalase (CAT) > Operational PSII quantum yield (phiS(PSII)) > Glutathione S-transferase (GST) > Functional plastoquinone pool (Q(PQ)) > Glutathione reductase (GR) > Growth rate > Nonphotochemical quenching (QN) > Proton gradient quenching (Q(Emax)) > Ascorbate peroxidase (APX) > Photochemical quenching (Q(p)) > Maximum PSII quantum yield (Phi(PSII)). The effect of oxyfluorfen on the changes of those parameters was interpreted as a result of herbicide mode of action at molecular level of alga cellular system. This study indicated for some photosynthetic and enzymatic biomarkers to be useful indicators of toxicity effect induced in non-target alga species. Determination of biomarkers' sensitivity order may facilitate their selection to be used in environmental risk assessment of polluted water.

Parametric sensitivity study for solar-assisted heat-pump systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, N. M.; Morehouse, J. H.

1981-07-01

The engineering and economic parameters affecting life-cycle costs for solar-assisted heat pump systems are investigted. The change in energy usage resulting from each engineering parameter varied was developed from computer simulations, and is compared with results from a stand-alone heat pump system. Three geographical locations are considered: Washington, DC, Fort Worth, TX, and Madison, WI. Results indicate that most engineering changes to the systems studied do not provide significant energy savings. The most promising parameters to ary are the solar collector parameters tau (-) and U/sub L/ the heat pump capacity at design point, and the minimum utilizable evaporator temperature. Costs associated with each change are estimated, and life-cycle costs computed for both engineering parameters and economic variations in interest rate, discount rate, tax credits, fuel unit costs and fuel inflation rates. Results indicate that none of the feasibile engineering changes for the system configuration studied will make these systems economically competitive with the stand-alone heat pump without a considerable tax credit.

Comparison in Schemes for Simulating Depositional Growth of Ice Crystal between Theoretical and Laboratory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, Guoqing; Li, Xiaofan

2015-04-01

The Bergeron-Findeisen process has been simulated using the parameterization scheme for the depositional growth of ice crystal with the temperature-dependent theoretically predicted parameters in the past decades. Recently, Westbrook and Heymsfield (2011) calculated these parameters using the laboratory data from Takahashi and Fukuta (1988) and Takahashi et al. (1991) and found significant differences between the two parameter sets. There are two schemes that parameterize the depositional growth of ice crystal: Hsie et al. (1980), Krueger et al. (1995) and Zeng et al. (2008). In this study, we conducted three pairs of sensitivity experiments using three parameterization schemes and the two parameter sets. The pre-summer torrential rainfall event is chosen as the simulated rainfall case in this study. The analysis of root-mean-squared difference and correlation coefficient between the simulation and observation of surface rain rate shows that the experiment with the Krueger scheme and the Takahashi laboratory-derived parameters produces the best rain-rate simulation. The mean simulated rain rates are higher than the mean observational rain rate. The calculations of 5-day and model domain mean rain rates reveal that the three schemes with Takahashi laboratory-derived parameters tend to reduce the mean rain rate. The Krueger scheme together with the Takahashi laboratory-derived parameters generate the closest mean rain rate to the mean observational rain rate. The decrease in the mean rain rate caused by the Takahashi laboratory-derived parameters in the experiment with the Krueger scheme is associated with the reductions in the mean net condensation and the mean hydrometeor loss. These reductions correspond to the suppressed mean infrared radiative cooling due to the enhanced cloud ice and snow in the upper troposphere.

Heart rate variability (HRV) in deep breathing tests and 5-min short-term recordings: agreement of ear photoplethysmography with ECG measurements, in 343 subjects.

PubMed

Weinschenk, Stefan W; Beise, Reinhard D; Lorenz, Jürgen

2016-08-01

We analyzed heart rate variability (HRV) taken by ECG and photoplethysmography (PPG) to assess their agreement. We also analyzed the sensitivity and specificity of PPG to identify subjects with low HRV as an example of its potential use for clinical applications. The HRV parameters: mean heart rate (HR), amplitude, and ratio of heart rate oscillation (E-I difference, E/I ratio), RMSSD, SDNN, and Power LF, were measured during 1-min deep breathing tests (DBT) in 343 individuals, followed by a 5-min short-term HRV (s-HRV), where the HRV parameters: HR, SD1, SD2, SDNN, Stress Index, Power HF, Power LF, Power VLF, and Total Power, were determined as well. Parameters were compared through correlation analysis and agreement analysis by Bland-Altman plots. PPG derived parameters HR and SD2 in s-HRV showed better agreement than SD1, Power HF, and stress index, whereas in DBT HR, E/I ratio and SDNN were superior to Power LF and RMSSD. DBT yielded stronger agreement than s-HRV. A slight overestimation of PPG HRV over HCG HRV was found. HR, Total Power, and SD2 in the s-HRV, HR, Power LF, and SDNN in the DBT showed high sensitivity and specificity to detect individuals with poor HRV. Cutoff percentiles are given for the future development of PPG-based devices. HRV measured by PPG shows good agreement with ECG HRV when appropriate parameters are used, and PPG-based devices can be employed as an easy screening tool to detect individuals with poor HRV, especially in the 1-min DBT test.

TCP performance in ATM networks: ABR parameter tuning and ABR/UBR comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chien Fang; Lin, A.

1996-02-27

This paper explores two issues on TOP performance over ATM networks: ABR parameter tuning and performance comparison of binary mode ABR with enhanced UBR services. Of the fifteen parameters defined for ABR, two parameters dominate binary mode ABR performance: Rate Increase Factor (RIF) and Rate Decrease Factor (RDF). Using simulations, we study the effects of these two parameters on TOP over ABR performance. We compare TOP performance with different ABR parameter settings in terms of through-puts and fairness. The effects of different buffer sizes and LAN/WAN distances are also examined. We then compare TOP performance with the best ABR parametermore » setting with corresponding UBR service enhanced with Early Packet Discard and also with a fair buffer allocation scheme. The results show that TOP performance over binary mode ABR is very sensitive to parameter value settings, and that a poor choice of parameters can result in ABR performance worse than that of the much less expensive UBR-EPD scheme.« less

Variation of strain rate sensitivity index of a superplastic aluminum alloy in different testing methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majidi, Omid; Jahazi, Mohammad; Bombardier, Nicolas; Samuel, Ehab

2017-10-01

The strain rate sensitivity index, m-value, is being applied as a common tool to evaluate the impact of the strain rate on the viscoplastic behaviour of materials. The m-value, as a constant number, has been frequently taken into consideration for modeling material behaviour in the numerical simulation of superplastic forming processes. However, the impact of the testing variables on the measured m-values has not been investigated comprehensively. In this study, the m-value for a superplastic grade of an aluminum alloy (i.e., AA5083) has been investigated. The conditions and the parameters that influence the strain rate sensitivity for the material are compared with three different testing methods, i.e., monotonic uniaxial tension test, strain rate jump test and stress relaxation test. All tests were conducted at elevated temperature (470°C) and at strain rates up to 0.1 s-1. The results show that the m-value is not constant and is highly dependent on the applied strain rate, strain level and testing method.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

HIGH-RATE FORMABILITY OF HIGH-STRENGTH ALUMINUM ALLOYS: A STUDY ON OBJECTIVITY OF MEASURED STRAIN AND STRAIN RATE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Upadhyay, Piyush; Rohatgi, Aashish; Stephens, Elizabeth V.

2015-02-18

Al alloy AA7075 sheets were deformed at room temperature at strain-rates exceeding 1000 /s using the electrohydraulic forming (EHF) technique. A method that combines high speed imaging and digital image correlation technique, developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, is used to investigate high strain rate deformation behavior of AA7075. For strain-rate sensitive materials, the ability to accurately model their high-rate deformation behavior is dependent upon the ability to accurately quantify the strain-rate that the material is subjected to. This work investigates the objectivity of software-calculated strain and strain rate by varying different parameters within commonly used commercially available digital imagemore » correlation software. Except for very close to the time of crack opening the calculated strain and strain rates are very consistent and independent of the adjustable parameters of the software.« less

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

PubMed Central

Curtis, Janelle M.R.

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options. PMID:27547529

Pulsating Hydrodynamic Instability in a Dynamic Model of Liquid-Propellant Combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margolis, Stephen B.; Sacksteder, Kurt (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Hydrodynamic (Landau) instability in combustion is typically associated with the onset of wrinkling of a flame surface, corresponding to the formation of steady cellular structures as the stability threshold is crossed. In the context of liquid-propellant combustion, such instability has recently been shown to occur for critical values of the pressure sensitivity of the burning rate and the disturbance wavenumber, significantly generalizing previous classical results for this problem that assumed a constant normal burning rate. Additionally, however, a pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability has been shown to occur as well, corresponding to the onset of temporal oscillations in the location of the liquid/gas interface. In the present work, we consider the realistic influence of a nonzero temperature sensitivity in the local burning rate on both types of stability thresholds. It is found that for sufficiently small values of this parameter, there exists a stable range of pressure sensitivities for steady, planar burning such that the classical cellular form of hydrodynamic instability and the more recent pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability can each occur as the corresponding stability threshold is crossed. For larger thermal sensitivities, however, the pulsating stability boundary evolves into a C-shaped curve in the disturbance-wavenumber/ pressure-sensitivity plane, indicating loss of stability to pulsating perturbations for all sufficiently large disturbance wavelengths. It is thus concluded, based on characteristic parameter values, that an equally likely form of hydrodynamic instability in liquid-propellant combustion is of a nonsteady, long-wave nature, distinct from the steady, cellular form originally predicted by Landau.

Pulsating Hydrodynamic Instability and Thermal Coupling in an Extended Landau/Levich Model of Liquid-Propellant Combustion. 1; Inviscid Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margolis, Stephen B.; Sacksteder, Kurt (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

Hydrodynamic (Landau) instability in combustion is typically associated with the onset of wrinkling of a flame surface, corresponding to the formation of steady cellular structures as the stability threshold is crossed. In the context of liquid-propellant combustion, such instability has recently been shown to occur for critical values of the pressure sensitivity of the burning rate and the disturbance wavenumber, significantly generalizing previous classical results for this problem that assumed a constant normal burning rate. Additionally, however, a pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability has been shown to occur as well, corresponding to the onset of temporal oscillations in the location of the liquid/gas interface. In the present work, we consider the realistic influence of a non-zero temperature sensitivity in the local burning rate on both types of stability thresholds. It is found that for sufficiently small values of this parameter, there exists a stable range of pressure sensitivities for steady, planar burning such that the classical cellular form of hydrodynamic instability and the more recent pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability can each occur as the corresponding stability threshold is crossed. For larger thermal sensitivities, however, the pulsating stability boundary evolves into a C-shaped curve in the (disturbance-wavenumber, pressure-sensitivity) plane, indicating loss of stability to pulsating perturbations for all sufficiently large disturbance wavelengths. It is thus concluded, based on characteristic parameter values, that an equally likely form of hydrodynamic instability in liquid-propellant combustion is of a non-steady, long-wave nature, distinct from the steady, cellular form originally predicted by Landau.

A sensitivity model for energy consumption in buildings. Part 1: Effect of exterior environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.

1981-01-01

A simple analytical model is developed for the simulation of seasonal heating and cooling loads of any class of buildings to complement available computerized techniques which make hourly, daily, and monthly calculations. An expression for the annual energy utilization index, which is a common measure of rating buildings having the same functional utilization, is derived to include about 30 parameters for both building interior and exterior environments. The sensitivity of a general class building to either controlled or uncontrolled weather parameters is examined. A hypothetical office type building, located at the Goldstone Space Communication Complex, Goldstone, California, is selected as an example for the numerical sensitivity evaluations. Several expressions of variations in local outside air temperature, pressure, solar radiation, and wind velocity are presented.

Carbon and water flux responses to physiology by environment interactions: a sensitivity analysis of variation in climate on photosynthetic and stomatal parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauerle, William L.; Daniels, Alex B.; Barnard, David M.

2014-05-01

Sensitivity of carbon uptake and water use estimates to changes in physiology was determined with a coupled photosynthesis and stomatal conductance ( g s) model, linked to canopy microclimate with a spatially explicit scheme (MAESTRA). The sensitivity analyses were conducted over the range of intraspecific physiology parameter variation observed for Acer rubrum L. and temperate hardwood C3 (C3) vegetation across the following climate conditions: carbon dioxide concentration 200-700 ppm, photosynthetically active radiation 50-2,000 μmol m-2 s-1, air temperature 5-40 °C, relative humidity 5-95 %, and wind speed at the top of the canopy 1-10 m s-1. Five key physiological inputs [quantum yield of electron transport ( α), minimum stomatal conductance ( g 0), stomatal sensitivity to the marginal water cost of carbon gain ( g 1), maximum rate of electron transport ( J max), and maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco ( V cmax)] changed carbon and water flux estimates ≥15 % in response to climate gradients; variation in α, J max, and V cmax input resulted in up to ~50 and 82 % intraspecific and C3 photosynthesis estimate output differences respectively. Transpiration estimates were affected up to ~46 and 147 % by differences in intraspecific and C3 g 1 and g 0 values—two parameters previously overlooked in modeling land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. We show that a variable environment, within a canopy or along a climate gradient, changes the spatial parameter effects of g 0, g 1, α, J max, and V cmax in photosynthesis- g s models. Since variation in physiology parameter input effects are dependent on climate, this approach can be used to assess the geographical importance of key physiology model inputs when estimating large scale carbon and water exchange.

Modeling of the silane FBR system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudokovic, M. P.; Ramachandran, P. A.; Lai, S.

1984-01-01

Development of a mathematical model for fluidized bed pyrolysis of silane that relates production rate and product properties (size, size distribution, presence or absence of fines) with bed size and operating conditions (temperature, feed concentration, flow rate, seed size, etc.) and development of user oriented algorithm for the model are considered. A parameter sensitivity study of the model was also developed.

Application of ADM1 for modeling of biogas production from anaerobic digestion of Hydrilla verticillata.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaojuan; Chen, Zhihua; Wang, Xun; Huo, Chan; Hu, Zhiquan; Xiao, Bo; Hu, Mian

2016-07-01

The present study focused on the application of anaerobic digestion model no. 1 (ADM1) to simulate biogas production from Hydrilla verticillata. Model simulation was carried out by implementing ADM1 in AQUASIM 2.0 software. Sensitivity analysis was used to select the most sensitive parameters for estimation using the absolute-relative sensitivity function. Among all the kinetic parameters, disintegration constant (kdis), hydrolysis constant of protein (khyd_pr), Monod maximum specific substrate uptake rate (km_aa, km_ac, km_h2) and half-saturation constants (Ks_aa, Ks_ac) affect biogas production significantly, which were optimized by fitting of the model equations to the data obtained from batch experiments. The ADM1 model after parameter estimation was able to well predict the experimental results of daily biogas production and biogas composition. The simulation results of evolution of organic acids, bacteria concentrations and inhibition effects also helped to get insight into the reaction mechanisms. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis in an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection

PubMed Central

Jones, Douglas E.; Dorman, Karin S.

2009-01-01

Computer models of disease take a systems biology approach toward understanding host-pathogen interactions. In particular, data driven computer model calibration is the basis for inference of immunological and pathogen parameters, assessment of model validity, and comparison between alternative models of immune or pathogen behavior. In this paper we describe the calibration and analysis of an agent-based model of Leishmania major infection. A model of macrophage loss following uptake of necrotic tissue is proposed to explain macrophage depletion following peak infection. Using Gaussian processes to approximate the computer code, we perform a sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and to characterize their influence on the simulated infection. The analysis indicates that increasing growth rate can favor or suppress pathogen loads, depending on the infection stage and the pathogen’s ability to avoid detection. Subsequent calibration of the model against previously published biological observations suggests that L. major has a relatively slow growth rate and can replicate for an extended period of time before damaging the host cell. PMID:19837088

Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

2015-06-01

We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

2015-07-01

Physically based models provide insights into key hydrologic processes but are associated with uncertainties due to deficiencies in forcing data, model parameters, and model structure. Forcing uncertainty is enhanced in snow-affected catchments, where weather stations are scarce and prone to measurement errors, and meteorological variables exhibit high variability. Hence, there is limited understanding of how forcing error characteristics affect simulations of cold region hydrology and which error characteristics are most important. Here we employ global sensitivity analysis to explore how (1) different error types (i.e., bias, random errors), (2) different error probability distributions, and (3) different error magnitudes influence physically based simulations of four snow variables (snow water equivalent, ablation rates, snow disappearance, and sublimation). We use the Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, which is typically used for model parameters but adapted here for testing model sensitivity to coexisting errors in all forcings. We quantify the Utah Energy Balance model's sensitivity to forcing errors with 1 840 000 Monte Carlo simulations across four sites and five different scenarios. Model outputs were (1) consistently more sensitive to forcing biases than random errors, (2) generally less sensitive to forcing error distributions, and (3) critically sensitive to different forcings depending on the relative magnitude of errors. For typical error magnitudes found in areas with drifting snow, precipitation bias was the most important factor for snow water equivalent, ablation rates, and snow disappearance timing, but other forcings had a more dominant impact when precipitation uncertainty was due solely to gauge undercatch. Additionally, the relative importance of forcing errors depended on the model output of interest. Sensitivity analysis can reveal which forcing error characteristics matter most for hydrologic modeling.

Objectification of steering feel around straight-line driving for vehicle/tyre design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungsik; Yoon, Yong-San

2015-02-01

This paper presents the objectification techniques for the assessment of steering feel including {on-centre} feel and steering response by measurement data. Here, new objective parameters are developed by considering not only the process by which the steering feel is evaluated subjectively but also by the ergonomic perceptive sensitivity of the driver. In order to validate such objective parameters, subjective tests are carried out by professional drivers. Objective measurements are also performed for several cars at a proving ground. The linear correlation coefficients between the subjective ratings and the objective parameters are calculated. As one of new objective parameters, steering wheel angle defined by ergonomic perception sensitivity shows high correlation with the subjective questionnaires of on-center responses. Newly defined steering torque curvature also shows high correlation with the subjective questionnaires of on-center effort. These correlation results conclude that the subjective assessment of steering feel can be successfully explained and objectified by means of the suggested objective parameters.

A continuum mathematical model of endothelial layer maintenance and senescence

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Aguda, Baltazar D; Friedman, Avner

2007-01-01

Background The monolayer of endothelial cells (ECs) lining the inner wall of blood vessels deteriorates as a person ages due to a complex interplay of a variety of causes including cell death arising from shear stress of blood flow and cellular oxidative stress, cellular senescence, and decreased rate of replacement of dead ECs by progenitor stem cells. Results A continuum mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of large EC populations of the endothelium using a system of differential equations for the number densities of cells of different generations starting from endothelial progenitors to senescent cells, as well as the densities of dead cells and the holes created upon clearing dead cells. Aging of cells is manifested in three ways, namely, losing the ability to divide when the Hayflick limit of 50 generations is reached, decreasing replication rate parameters and increasing death rate parameters as cells divide; due to the dependence of these rate parameters on cell generation, the model predicts a narrow distribution of cell densities peaking at a particular cell generation. As the chronological age of a person advances, the peak of the distribution – corresponding to the age of the endothelium – moves towards senescence correspondingly. However, computer simulations also demonstrate that sustained and enhanced stem cell homing can halt the aging process of the endothelium by maintaining a stationary cell density distribution that peaks well before the Hayflick limit. The healing rates of damaged endothelia for young, middle-aged, and old persons are compared and are found to be particularly sensitive to the stem cell homing parameter. Conclusion The proposed model describes the aging of the endothelium as being driven by cellular senescence, with a rate that does not necessarily correspond to the chronological aging of a person. It is shown that the age of the endothelium depends sensitively on the homing rates of EC progenitor cells. PMID:17692115

A continuum mathematical model of endothelial layer maintenance and senescence.

PubMed

Wang, Ying; Aguda, Baltazar D; Friedman, Avner

2007-08-10

The monolayer of endothelial cells (ECs) lining the inner wall of blood vessels deteriorates as a person ages due to a complex interplay of a variety of causes including cell death arising from shear stress of blood flow and cellular oxidative stress, cellular senescence, and decreased rate of replacement of dead ECs by progenitor stem cells. A continuum mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of large EC populations of the endothelium using a system of differential equations for the number densities of cells of different generations starting from endothelial progenitors to senescent cells, as well as the densities of dead cells and the holes created upon clearing dead cells. Aging of cells is manifested in three ways, namely, losing the ability to divide when the Hayflick limit of 50 generations is reached, decreasing replication rate parameters and increasing death rate parameters as cells divide; due to the dependence of these rate parameters on cell generation, the model predicts a narrow distribution of cell densities peaking at a particular cell generation. As the chronological age of a person advances, the peak of the distribution - corresponding to the age of the endothelium - moves towards senescence correspondingly. However, computer simulations also demonstrate that sustained and enhanced stem cell homing can halt the aging process of the endothelium by maintaining a stationary cell density distribution that peaks well before the Hayflick limit. The healing rates of damaged endothelia for young, middle-aged, and old persons are compared and are found to be particularly sensitive to the stem cell homing parameter. The proposed model describes the aging of the endothelium as being driven by cellular senescence, with a rate that does not necessarily correspond to the chronological aging of a person. It is shown that the age of the endothelium depends sensitively on the homing rates of EC progenitor cells.

Detecting influential observations in nonlinear regression modeling of groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.

1998-01-01

Nonlinear regression is used to estimate optimal parameter values in models of groundwater flow to ensure that differences between predicted and observed heads and flows do not result from nonoptimal parameter values. Parameter estimates can be affected, however, by observations that disproportionately influence the regression, such as outliers that exert undue leverage on the objective function. Certain statistics developed for linear regression can be used to detect influential observations in nonlinear regression if the models are approximately linear. This paper discusses the application of Cook's D, which measures the effect of omitting a single observation on a set of estimated parameter values, and the statistical parameter DFBETAS, which quantifies the influence of an observation on each parameter. The influence statistics were used to (1) identify the influential observations in the calibration of a three-dimensional, groundwater flow model of a fractured-rock aquifer through nonlinear regression, and (2) quantify the effect of omitting influential observations on the set of estimated parameter values. Comparison of the spatial distribution of Cook's D with plots of model sensitivity shows that influential observations correspond to areas where the model heads are most sensitive to certain parameters, and where predicted groundwater flow rates are largest. Five of the six discharge observations were identified as influential, indicating that reliable measurements of groundwater flow rates are valuable data in model calibration. DFBETAS are computed and examined for an alternative model of the aquifer system to identify a parameterization error in the model design that resulted in overestimation of the effect of anisotropy on horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

Calcium-dependent control of temporal processing in an auditory interneuron: a computational analysis

PubMed Central

Ponnath, Abhilash

2010-01-01

Sensitivity to acoustic amplitude modulation in crickets differs between species and depends on carrier frequency (e.g., calling song vs. bat-ultrasound bands). Using computational tools, we explore how Ca2+-dependent mechanisms underlying selective attention can contribute to such differences in amplitude modulation sensitivity. For omega neuron 1 (ON1), selective attention is mediated by Ca2+-dependent feedback: [Ca2+]internal increases with excitation, activating a Ca2+-dependent after-hyperpolarizing current. We propose that Ca2+ removal rate and the size of the after-hyperpolarizing current can determine ON1’s temporal modulation transfer function (TMTF). This is tested using a conductance-based simulation calibrated to responses in vivo. The model shows that parameter values that simulate responses to single pulses are sufficient in simulating responses to modulated stimuli: no special modulation-sensitive mechanisms are necessary, as high and low-pass portions of the TMTF are due to Ca2+-dependent spike frequency adaptation and post-synaptic potential depression, respectively. Furthermore, variance in the two biophysical parameters is sufficient to produce TMTFs of varying bandwidth, shifting amplitude modulation sensitivity like that in different species and in response to different carrier frequencies. Thus, the hypothesis that the size of after-hyperpolarizing current and the rate of Ca2+ removal can affect amplitude modulation sensitivity is computationally validated. PMID:20559640

Buy now, saved later? The critical impact of time-to-pandemic uncertainty on pandemic cost-effectiveness analyses.

PubMed

Drake, Tom; Chalabi, Zaid; Coker, Richard

2015-02-01

Investment in pandemic preparedness is a long-term gamble, with the return on investment coming at an unknown point in the future. Many countries have chosen to stockpile key resources, and the number of pandemic economic evaluations has risen sharply since 2009. We assess the importance of uncertainty in time-to-pandemic (and associated discounting) in pandemic economic evaluation, a factor frequently neglected in the literature to-date. We use a probability tree model and Monte Carlo parameter sampling to consider the cost effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling in Cambodia under parameter uncertainty. Mean elasticity and mutual information (MI) are used to assess the importance of time-to-pandemic compared with other parameters. We also consider the sensitivity to choice of sampling distribution used to model time-to-pandemic uncertainty. Time-to-pandemic and discount rate are the primary drivers of sensitivity and uncertainty in pandemic cost effectiveness models. Base case cost effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling ranged between is US$112 and US$3599 per DALY averted using historical pandemic intervals for time-to-pandemic. The mean elasticities for time-to-pandemic and discount rate were greater than all other parameters. Similarly, the MI scores for time to pandemic and discount rate were greater than other parameters. Time-to-pandemic and discount rate were key drivers of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results regardless of time-to-pandemic sampling distribution choice. Time-to-pandemic assumptions can "substantially" affect cost-effectiveness results and, in our model, is a greater contributor to uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results than any other parameter. We strongly recommend that cost-effectiveness models include probabilistic analysis of time-to-pandemic uncertainty. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator.

PubMed

Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V; Jeppsson, Ulf

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weather files describing diurnal, weekend and seasonal variations through the combination of different generic model blocks, i.e. households, industry, rainfall and infiltration. The GSA is carried out by combining Monte Carlo simulations and standardized regression coefficients (SRC). Cluster analysis is then applied, classifying the influence of the model parameters into strong, medium and weak. The results show that the method is able to decompose the variance of the model predictions (R(2)> 0.9) satisfactorily, thus identifying the model parameters with strongest impact on several flow rate descriptors calculated at different time resolutions. Catchment size (PE) and the production of wastewater per person equivalent (QperPE) are two parameters that strongly influence the yearly average dry weather flow rate and its variability. Wet weather conditions are mainly affected by three parameters: (1) the probability of occurrence of a rain event (Llrain); (2) the catchment size, incorporated in the model as a parameter representing the conversion from mm rain · day(-1) to m(3) · day(-1) (Qpermm); and, (3) the quantity of rain falling on permeable areas (aH). The case study also shows that in both dry and wet weather conditions the SRC ranking changes when the time scale of the analysis is modified, thus demonstrating the potential to identify the effect of the model parameters on the fast/medium/slow dynamics of the flow rate. The paper ends with a discussion on the interpretation of GSA results and of the advantages of using synthetic dynamic flow rate data for WWTP influent scenario generation. This section also includes general suggestions on how to use the proposed methodology to any influent generator to adapt the created time series to a modeller's demands.

Estimation of Slow Crack Growth Parameters for Constant Stress-Rate Test Data of Advanced Ceramics and Glass by the Individual Data and Arithmetic Mean Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Holland, Frederic A.

1997-01-01

The two estimation methods, individual data and arithmetic mean methods, were used to determine the slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n and D) of advanced ceramics and glass from a large number of room- and elevated-temperature constant stress-rate ('dynamic fatigue') test data. For ceramic materials with Weibull modulus greater than 10, the difference in the SCG parameters between the two estimation methods was negligible; whereas, for glass specimens exhibiting Weibull modulus of about 3, the difference was amplified, resulting in a maximum difference of 16 and 13 %, respectively, in n and D. Of the two SCG parameters, the parameter n was more sensitive to the estimation method than the other. The coefficient of variation in n was found to be somewhat greater in the individual data method than in the arithmetic mean method.

Activation and quenching of the phototransduction cascade in retinal cones as inferred from electrophysiology and mathematical modeling

PubMed Central

Astakhova, Luba; Firsov, Michael

2015-01-01

Purpose To experimentally identify and quantify factors responsible for the lower sensitivity of retinal cones compared to rods. Methods Electrical responses of frog rods and fish (Carassius) cones to short flashes of light were recorded using the suction pipette technique. A fast solution changer was used to apply a solution that fixed intracellular Ca2+ concentration at the prestimulus level, thereby disabling Ca2+ feedback, to the outer segment (OS). The results were analyzed with a specially designed mathematical model of phototransduction. The model included all basic processes of activation and quenching of the phototransduction cascade but omitted unnecessary mechanistic details of each step. Results Judging from the response versus intensity curves, Carassius cones were two to three orders of magnitude less sensitive than frog rods. There was a large scatter in sensitivity among individual cones, with red-sensitive cones being on average approximately two times less sensitive than green-sensitive ones. The scatter was mostly due to different signal amplification, since the kinetic parameters of the responses among cones were far less variable than sensitivity. We argue that the generally accepted definition of the biochemical amplification in phototransduction cannot be used for comparing amplification in rods and cones, since it depends on an irrelevant factor, that is, the cell’s volume. We also show that the routinely used simplified parabolic curve fitting to an initial phase of the response leads to a few-fold underestimate of the amplification. We suggest a new definition of the amplification that only includes molecular parameters of the cascade activation, and show how it can be derived from experimental data. We found that the mathematical model with unrestrained parameters can yield an excellent fit to experimental responses. However, the fits with wildly different sets of parameters can be virtually indistinguishable, and therefore cannot provide meaningful data on underlying mechanisms. Based on results of Ca2+-clamp experiments, we developed an approach to strongly constrain the values of many key parameters that set the time course and sensitivity of the photoresponse (such as the dark turnover rate of cGMP, rates of turnoffs of the photoactivated visual pigment and phosphodiesterase, and kinetics of Ca2+ feedback). We show that applying these constraints to our mathematical model enables accurate determination of the biochemical amplification in phototransduction. It appeared that, contrary to many suggestions, maximum biochemical amplification derived for “best” Carassius cones was as high as in frog rods. On the other hand, all turnoff and recovery reactions in cones proceeded approximately 10 times faster than in rods. Conclusions The main cause of the differing sensitivity of rods and cones is cones’ ability to terminate their photoresponse faster. PMID:25866462

A systematic computational study of electronic effects on hydrogen sensitivity of olefin polymerization catalysts (abstract only).

PubMed

Coussens, Betty B; Budzelaar, Peter H M; Friederichs, Nic

2008-02-13

One of the important product parameters of polyolefins is their molecular weight (distribution). A common way to control this parameter is to add molecular hydrogen during the polymerization, which then acts as a chain transfer agent. The factors governing the hydrogen sensitivity of olefin polymerization catalysts are poorly understood and have attracted little attention from computational chemists. To explore the electronic factors determining hydrogen sensitivity we performed density functional calculations on a wide range of simple model systems including some metallocenes and a few basic models of heterogeneous catalysts. As a quantitative measure for hydrogen sensitivity we used the ratio of (i) the rate constant for chain transfer to hydrogen to (ii) the rate constant for ethene insertion, k(h)/k(p) (see the scheme below), and as a measure of electrophilicity we used the energy of complexation to the probe molecule ammonia. [Formula: see text] For isolated species in the gas phase, complexation energies appear to dominate the chemistry. Ethene complexes more strongly than hydrogen and with increasing electrophilicity of the metal centre this difference grows; the hydrogen sensitivity decreases accordingly. Although many factors (like catalyst dormancy and deactivation issues) complicate the comparison with experiment, this result seems to agree both in broad terms with the experimental lower hydrogen sensitivity of heterogeneous catalysts, and more specifically with the increased hydrogen sensitivity of highly alkylated or fused metallocenes. The opposite conclusion reached by Blom (see Blom et al 2002 Macromol. Chem. Phys. 203 381-7) is due to the use of a very different measure of electrophilicity, rather than to different experimental data.

Unified Model Deformation and Flow Transition Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burner, Alpheus W.; Liu, Tianshu; Garg, Sanjay; Bell, James H.; Morgan, Daniel G.

1999-01-01

The number of optical techniques that may potentially be used during a given wind tunnel test is continually growing. These include parameter sensitive paints that are sensitive to temperature or pressure, several different types of off-body and on-body flow visualization techniques, optical angle-of-attack (AoA), optical measurement of model deformation, optical techniques for determining density or velocity, and spectroscopic techniques for determining various flow field parameters. Often in the past the various optical techniques were developed independently of each other, with little or no consideration for other techniques that might also be used during a given test. Recently two optical techniques have been increasingly requested for production measurements in NASA wind tunnels. These are the video photogrammetric (or videogrammetric) technique for measuring model deformation known as the video model deformation (VMD) technique, and the parameter sensitive paints for making global pressure and temperature measurements. Considerations for, and initial attempts at, simultaneous measurements with the pressure sensitive paint (PSP) and the videogrammetric techniques have been implemented. Temperature sensitive paint (TSP) has been found to be useful for boundary-layer transition detection since turbulent boundary layers convect heat at higher rates than laminar boundary layers of comparable thickness. Transition is marked by a characteristic surface temperature change wherever there is a difference between model and flow temperatures. Recently, additional capabilities have been implemented in the target-tracking videogrammetric measurement system. These capabilities have permitted practical simultaneous measurements using parameter sensitive paint and video model deformation measurements that led to the first successful unified test with TSP for transition detection in a large production wind tunnel.

Assessing alternatives for directional detection of a halo of weakly interacting massive particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copi, Craig J.; Krauss, Lawrence M.; Department of Astronomy, Case Western Reserve University, 10900 Euclid Ave., Cleveland, Ohio 44106-7079

2007-01-15

The future of direct terrestrial WIMP detection lies on two fronts: new, much larger low background detectors sensitive to energy deposition, and detectors with directional sensitivity. The former can explore a large range of WIMP parameter space using well-tested technology while the latter may be necessary if one is to disentangle particle physics parameters from astrophysical halo parameters. Because directional detectors will be quite difficult to construct it is worthwhile exploring in advance generally which experimental features will yield the greatest benefits at the lowest costs. We examine the sensitivity of directional detectors with varying angular tracking resolution with andmore » without the ability to distinguish forward versus backward recoils, and compare these to the sensitivity of a detector where the track is projected onto a two-dimensional plane. The latter detector regardless of where it is placed on the Earth, can be oriented to produce a significantly better discrimination signal than a 3D detector without this capability, and with sensitivity within a factor of 2 of a full 3D tracking detector. Required event rates to distinguish signals from backgrounds for a simple isothermal halo range from the low teens in the best case to many thousands in the worst.« less

Modelling and optimization of a wellhead gas flowmeter using concentric pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nec, Yana; Huculak, Greg

2017-09-01

A novel configuration of a landfill wellhead was analysed to measure the flow rate of gas extracted from sanitary landfills. The device provides access points for pressure measurement integral to flow rate computation similarly to orifice and Venturi meters, and has the advantage of eliminating the problem of water condensation often impairing the accuracy thereof. It is proved that the proposed configuration entails comparable computational complexity and negligible sensitivity to geometric parameters. Calibration for the new device was attained using a custom optimization procedure, operating on a quadri-dimensional parameter surface evincing discontinuity and non-smoothness.

Pharmacology of saccadic eye movements in man. 1. Effects of the benzodiazepine receptor ligands midazolam and flumazenil.

PubMed

Ball, D M; Glue, P; Wilson, S; Nutt, D J

1991-01-01

A paradigm for assessing benzodiazepine receptor sensitivity was developed using intravenous midazolam in normal volunteers. After administration of incremental doses of midazolam, alterations in saccadic eye movement parameters and psychological self ratings were assessed. Significant changes included dose-dependent slowing of peak velocity, peak acceleration, peak deceleration, reduced saccade acceleration/deceleration ratio and saccade accuracy, and increased sedation self-ratings. Changes in saccade variables and sedation ratings were significantly correlated, and also correlated with plasma midazolam concentrations. No significant changes were seen in saccade latency or anxiety self-ratings. Pharmacological specificity of these changes was demonstrated by their reversal with the benzodiazepine antagonist flumazenil. This challenge paradigm appears to be a sensitive means of assessing benzodiazepine receptor function in man.

Separating foliar physiology from morphology reveals the relative roles of vertically structured transpiration factors within red maple crowns and limitations of larger scale models

PubMed Central

Bauerle, William L.; Bowden, Joseph D.

2011-01-01

A spatially explicit mechanistic model, MAESTRA, was used to separate key parameters affecting transpiration to provide insights into the most influential parameters for accurate predictions of within-crown and within-canopy transpiration. Once validated among Acer rubrum L. genotypes, model responses to different parameterization scenarios were scaled up to stand transpiration (expressed per unit leaf area) to assess how transpiration might be affected by the spatial distribution of foliage properties. For example, when physiological differences were accounted for, differences in leaf width among A. rubrum L. genotypes resulted in a 25% difference in transpiration. An in silico within-canopy sensitivity analysis was conducted over the range of genotype parameter variation observed and under different climate forcing conditions. The analysis revealed that seven of 16 leaf traits had a ≥5% impact on transpiration predictions. Under sparse foliage conditions, comparisons of the present findings with previous studies were in agreement that parameters such as the maximum Rubisco-limited rate of photosynthesis can explain ∼20% of the variability in predicted transpiration. However, the spatial analysis shows how such parameters can decrease or change in importance below the uppermost canopy layer. Alternatively, model sensitivity to leaf width and minimum stomatal conductance was continuous along a vertical canopy depth profile. Foremost, transpiration sensitivity to an observed range of morphological and physiological parameters is examined and the spatial sensitivity of transpiration model predictions to vertical variations in microclimate and foliage density is identified to reduce the uncertainty of current transpiration predictions. PMID:21617246

Seizure prediction in hippocampal and neocortical epilepsy using a model-based approach

PubMed Central

Aarabi, Ardalan; He, Bin

2014-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study is to develop a model based seizure prediction method. Methods A neural mass model was used to simulate the macro-scale dynamics of intracranial EEG data. The model was composed of pyramidal cells, excitatory and inhibitory interneurons described through state equations. Twelve model’s parameters were estimated by fitting the model to the power spectral density of intracranial EEG signals and then integrated based on information obtained by investigating changes in the parameters prior to seizures. Twenty-one patients with medically intractable hippocampal and neocortical focal epilepsy were studied. Results Tuned to obtain maximum sensitivity, an average sensitivity of 87.07% and 92.6% with an average false prediction rate of 0.2 and 0.15/h were achieved using maximum seizure occurrence periods of 30 and 50 min and a minimum seizure prediction horizon of 10 s, respectively. Under maximum specificity conditions, the system sensitivity decreased to 82.9% and 90.05% and the false prediction rates were reduced to 0.16 and 0.12/h using maximum seizure occurrence periods of 30 and 50 min, respectively. Conclusions The spatio-temporal changes in the parameters demonstrated patient-specific preictal signatures that could be used for seizure prediction. Significance The present findings suggest that the model-based approach may aid prediction of seizures. PMID:24374087

Heart-rate variability depression in porcine peritonitis-induced sepsis without organ failure.

PubMed

Jarkovska, Dagmar; Valesova, Lenka; Chvojka, Jiri; Benes, Jan; Danihel, Vojtech; Sviglerova, Jitka; Nalos, Lukas; Matejovic, Martin; Stengl, Milan

2017-05-01

Depression of heart-rate variability (HRV) in conditions of systemic inflammation has been shown in both patients and experimental animal models and HRV has been suggested as an early indicator of sepsis. The sensitivity of HRV-derived parameters to the severity of sepsis, however, remains unclear. In this study we modified the clinically relevant porcine model of peritonitis-induced sepsis in order to avoid the development of organ failure and to test the sensitivity of HRV to such non-severe conditions. In 11 anesthetized, mechanically ventilated and instrumented domestic pigs of both sexes, sepsis was induced by fecal peritonitis. The dose of feces was adjusted and antibiotic therapy was administered to avoid multiorgan failure. Experimental subjects were screened for 40 h from the induction of sepsis. In all septic animals, sepsis with hyperdynamic circulation and increased plasma levels of inflammatory mediators developed within 12 h from the induction of peritonitis. The sepsis did not progress to multiorgan failure and there was no spontaneous death during the experiment despite a modest requirement for vasopressor therapy in most animals (9/11). A pronounced reduction of HRV and elevation of heart rate developed quickly (within 5 h, time constant of 1.97 ± 0.80 h for HRV parameter TINN) upon the induction of sepsis and were maintained throughout the experiment. The frequency domain analysis revealed a decrease in the high-frequency component. The reduction of HRV parameters and elevation of heart rate preceded sepsis-associated hemodynamic changes by several hours (time constant of 11.28 ± 2.07 h for systemic vascular resistance decline). A pronounced and fast reduction of HRV occurred in the setting of a moderate experimental porcine sepsis without organ failure. Inhibition of parasympathetic cardiac signaling probably represents the main mechanism of HRV reduction in sepsis. The sensitivity of HRV to systemic inflammation may allow early detection of a moderate sepsis without organ failure. Impact statement A pronounced and fast reduction of heart-rate variability occurred in the setting of a moderate experimental porcine sepsis without organ failure. Dominant reduction of heart-rate variability was found in the high-frequency band indicating inhibition of parasympathetic cardiac signaling as the main mechanism of heart-rate variability reduction. The sensitivity of heart-rate variability to systemic inflammation may contribute to an early detection of moderate sepsis without organ failure.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson M.; Feng, Zhe; Burleyson, Casey D.

Regional cloud permitting model simulations of cloud populations observed during the 2011 ARM Madden Julian Oscillation Investigation Experiment/ Dynamics of Madden-Julian Experiment (AMIE/DYNAMO) field campaign are evaluated against radar and ship-based measurements. Sensitivity of model simulated surface rain rate statistics to parameters and parameterization of hydrometeor sizes in five commonly used WRF microphysics schemes are examined. It is shown that at 2 km grid spacing, the model generally overestimates rain rate from large and deep convective cores. Sensitivity runs involving variation of parameters that affect rain drop or ice particle size distribution (more aggressive break-up process etc) generally reduce themore » bias in rain-rate and boundary layer temperature statistics as the smaller particles become more vulnerable to evaporation. Furthermore significant improvement in the convective rain-rate statistics is observed when the horizontal grid-spacing is reduced to 1 km and 0.5 km, while it is worsened when run at 4 km grid spacing as increased turbulence enhances evaporation. The results suggest modulation of evaporation processes, through parameterization of turbulent mixing and break-up of hydrometeors may provide a potential avenue for correcting cloud statistics and associated boundary layer temperature biases in regional and global cloud permitting model simulations.« less

Application of Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 for simulating anaerobic mesophilic sludge digestion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendes, Carlos, E-mail: carllosmendez@gmail.com; Esquerre, Karla, E-mail: karlaesquerre@ufba.br; Matos Queiroz, Luciano, E-mail: lmqueiroz@ufba.br

2015-01-15

Highlights: • The behavior of a anaerobic reactor was evaluated through modeling. • Parametric sensitivity analysis was used to select most sensitive of the ADM1. • The results indicate that the ADM1 was able to predict the experimental results. • Organic load rate above of 35 kg/m{sup 3} day affects the performance of the process. - Abstract: Improving anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge by monitoring common indicators such as volatile fatty acids (VFAs), gas composition and pH is a suitable solution for better sludge management. Modeling is an important tool to assess and to predict process performance. The present studymore » focuses on the application of the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) to simulate the dynamic behavior of a reactor fed with sewage sludge under mesophilic conditions. Parametric sensitivity analysis is used to select the most sensitive ADM1 parameters for estimation using a numerical procedure while other parameters are applied without any modification to the original values presented in the ADM1 report. The results indicate that the ADM1 model after parameter estimation was able to predict the experimental results of effluent acetate, propionate, composites and biogas flows and pH with reasonable accuracy. The simulation of the effect of organic shock loading clearly showed that an organic shock loading rate above of 35 kg/m{sup 3} day affects the performance of the reactor. The results demonstrate that simulations can be helpful to support decisions on predicting the anaerobic digestion process of sewage sludge.« less

Global sensitivity analysis of multiscale properties of porous materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Um, Kimoon; Zhang, Xuan; Katsoulakis, Markos; Plechac, Petr; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

2018-02-01

Ubiquitous uncertainty about pore geometry inevitably undermines the veracity of pore- and multi-scale simulations of transport phenomena in porous media. It raises two fundamental issues: sensitivity of effective material properties to pore-scale parameters and statistical parameterization of Darcy-scale models that accounts for pore-scale uncertainty. Homogenization-based maps of pore-scale parameters onto their Darcy-scale counterparts facilitate both sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification. We treat uncertain geometric characteristics of a hierarchical porous medium as random variables to conduct global SA and to derive probabilistic descriptors of effective diffusion coefficients and effective sorption rate. Our analysis is formulated in terms of solute transport diffusing through a fluid-filled pore space, while sorbing to the solid matrix. Yet it is sufficiently general to be applied to other multiscale porous media phenomena that are amenable to homogenization.

Rate Constant and Reaction Coordinate of Trp-Cage Folding in Explicit Water

PubMed Central

Juraszek, Jarek; Bolhuis, Peter G.

2008-01-01

We report rate constant calculations and a reaction coordinate analysis of the rate-limiting folding and unfolding process of the Trp-cage mini-protein in explicit solvent using transition interface sampling. Previous transition path sampling simulations revealed that in this (un)folding process the protein maintains its compact configuration, while a (de)increase of secondary structure is observed. The calculated folding rate agrees reasonably with experiment, while the unfolding rate is 10 times higher. We discuss possible origins for this mismatch. We recomputed the rates with the forward flux sampling method, and found a discrepancy of four orders of magnitude, probably caused by the method's higher sensitivity to the choice of order parameter with respect to transition interface sampling. Finally, we used the previously computed transition path-sampling ensemble to screen combinations of many order parameters for the best model of the reaction coordinate by employing likelihood maximization. We found that a combination of the root mean-square deviation of the helix and of the entire protein was, of the set of tried order parameters, the one that best describes the reaction coordination. PMID:18676648

Peak high-frequency HRV and peak alpha frequency higher in PTSD.

PubMed

Wahbeh, Helané; Oken, Barry S

2013-03-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is difficult to treat and current PTSD treatments are not effective for all people. Despite limited evidence for its efficacy, some clinicians have implemented biofeedback for PTSD treatment. As a first step in constructing an effective biofeedback treatment program, we assessed respiration, electroencephalography (EEG) and heart rate variability (HRV) as potential biofeedback parameters for a future clinical trial. This cross-sectional study included 86 veterans; 59 with and 27 without PTSD. Data were collected on EEG measures, HRV, and respiration rate during an attentive resting state. Measures were analyzed to assess sensitivity to PTSD status and the relationship to PTSD symptoms. Peak alpha frequency was higher in the PTSD group (F(1,84) = 6.14, p = 0.01). Peak high-frequency HRV was lower in the PTSD group (F(2,78) = 26.5, p < 0.00005) when adjusting for respiration rate. All other EEG and HRV measures and respiration were not different between groups. Peak high-frequency HRV and peak alpha frequency are sensitive to PTSD status and may be potential biofeedback parameters for future PTSD clinical trials.

Modeling of polymer photodegradation for solar cell modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somersall, A. C.; Guillet, J. E.

1982-01-01

It was shown that many of the experimental observations in the photooxidation of hydrocarbon polymers can be accounted for with a computer simulation using an elementary mechanistic model with corresponding rate constants for each reaction. For outdoor applications, however, such as in photovoltaics, the variation of temperature must have important effects on the useful lifetimes of such materials. The data bank necessary to replace the isothermal rate constant values with Arrhenius activation parameters: A (the pre-exponential factor) and E (the activation energy) was searched. The best collection of data assembled to data is summarized. Note, however, that the problem is now considerably enlarged since from a theoretical point of view, with 51 of the input variables replaced with 102 parameters. The sensitivity of the overall scheme is such that even after many computer simulations, a successful photooxidation simulation with the expanded variable set was not completed. Many of the species in the complex process undergo a number of competitive pathways, the relative importance of each being often sensitive to small changes in the calculated rate constant values.

Peak High-Frequency HRV and Peak Alpha Frequency Higher in PTSD

PubMed Central

Oken, Barry S.

2012-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is difficult to treat and current PTSD treatments are not effective for all people. Despite limited evidence for its efficacy, some clinicians have implemented biofeedback for PTSD treatment. As a first step in constructing an effective biofeedback treatment program, we assessed respiration, electroencephalography (EEG) and heart rate variability (HRV) as potential biofeedback parameters for a future clinical trial. This cross-sectional study included 86 veterans; 59 with and 27 without PTSD. Data were collected on EEG measures, HRV, and respiration rate during an attentive resting state. Measures were analyzed to assess sensitivity to PTSD status and the relationship to PTSD symptoms. Peak alpha frequency was higher in the PTSD group (F(1,84) = 6.14, p = 0.01). Peak high-frequency HRV was lower in the PTSD group (F(2,78) = 26.5, p<0.00005) when adjusting for respiration rate. All other EEG and HRV measures and respiration were not different between groups. Peak high-frequency HRV and peak alpha frequency are sensitive to PTSD status and may be potential biofeedback parameters for future PTSD clinical trials. PMID:23178990

Origin of the blood hyperserotonemia of autism

PubMed Central

Janušonis, Skirmantas

2008-01-01

Background Research in the last fifty years has shown that many autistic individuals have elevated serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) levels in blood platelets. This phenomenon, known as the platelet hyperserotonemia of autism, is considered to be one of the most well-replicated findings in biological psychiatry. Its replicability suggests that many of the genes involved in autism affect a small number of biological networks. These networks may also play a role in the early development of the autistic brain. Results We developed an equation that allows calculation of platelet 5-HT concentration as a function of measurable biological parameters. It also provides information about the sensitivity of platelet 5-HT levels to each of the parameters and their interactions. Conclusion The model yields platelet 5-HT concentrations that are consistent with values reported in experimental studies. If the parameters are considered independent, the model predicts that platelet 5-HT levels should be sensitive to changes in the platelet 5-HT uptake rate constant, the proportion of free 5-HT cleared in the liver and lungs, the gut 5-HT production rate and its regulation, and the volume of the gut wall. Linear and non-linear interactions among these and other parameters are specified in the equation, which may facilitate the design and interpretation of experimental studies. PMID:18498654

Origin of the blood hyperserotonemia of autism.

PubMed

Janusonis, Skirmantas

2008-05-22

Research in the last fifty years has shown that many autistic individuals have elevated serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) levels in blood platelets. This phenomenon, known as the platelet hyperserotonemia of autism, is considered to be one of the most well-replicated findings in biological psychiatry. Its replicability suggests that many of the genes involved in autism affect a small number of biological networks. These networks may also play a role in the early development of the autistic brain. We developed an equation that allows calculation of platelet 5-HT concentration as a function of measurable biological parameters. It also provides information about the sensitivity of platelet 5-HT levels to each of the parameters and their interactions. The model yields platelet 5-HT concentrations that are consistent with values reported in experimental studies. If the parameters are considered independent, the model predicts that platelet 5-HT levels should be sensitive to changes in the platelet 5-HT uptake rate constant, the proportion of free 5-HT cleared in the liver and lungs, the gut 5-HT production rate and its regulation, and the volume of the gut wall. Linear and non-linear interactions among these and other parameters are specified in the equation, which may facilitate the design and interpretation of experimental studies.

The HLMA project: determination of high Δm2 LMA mixing parameters and constraint on |Ue3| with a new reactor neutrino experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schönert, Stefan; Lasserre, Thierry; Oberauer, Lothar

2003-03-01

In the forthcoming months, the KamLAND experiment will probe the parameter space of the solar large mixing angle MSW solution as the origin of the solar neutrino deficit with ν¯e's from distant nuclear reactors. If however the solution realized in nature is such that Δm2sol>~2×10-4 eV2 (thereafter named the HLMA region), KamLAND will only observe a rate suppression but no spectral distortion and hence it will not have the optimal sensitivity to measure the mixing parameters. In this case, we propose a new medium baseline reactor experiment located at Heilbronn (Germany) to pin down the precise value of the solar mixing parameters. In this paper, we present the Heilbronn detector site, we calculate the ν¯e interaction rate and the positron spectrum expected from the surrounding nuclear power plants. We also discuss the sensitivity of such an experiment to |Ue3| in both normal and inverted neutrino mass hierarchy scenarios. We then outline the detector design, estimate background signals induced by natural radioactivity as well as by in situ cosmic ray muon interaction, and discuss a strategy to detect the anti-neutrino signal `free of background'.

Correlation of engineering parameters of the presumpscot formation to the seismic cone penetration test (SCPTU).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

The seismic cone penetration test with pore pressure measurement (SCPTu) is a geotechnical investigation technique which : involves pushing a sensitized cone into the subsurface at a constant rate while continuously measuring tip resistance, sleeve :...

Tradeoff studies in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schy, A. A.; Giesy, D. P.

1983-01-01

A computer aided design method for multiobjective parameter-insensitive design of airplane control systems is described. Methods are presented for trading off nominal values of design objectives against sensitivities of the design objectives to parameter uncertainties, together with guidelines for designer utilization of the methods. The methods are illustrated by application to the design of a lateral stability augmentation system for two supersonic flight conditions of the Shuttle Orbiter. Objective functions are conventional handling quality measures and peak magnitudes of control deflections and rates. The uncertain parameters are assumed Gaussian, and numerical approximations of the stochastic behavior of the objectives are described. Results of applying the tradeoff methods to this example show that stochastic-insensitive designs are distinctly different from deterministic multiobjective designs. The main penalty for achieving significant decrease in sensitivity is decreased speed of response for the nominal system.

Process development and exergy cost sensitivity analysis of a hybrid molten carbonate fuel cell power plant and carbon dioxide capturing process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrpooya, Mehdi; Ansarinasab, Hojat; Moftakhari Sharifzadeh, Mohammad Mehdi; Rosen, Marc A.

2017-10-01

An integrated power plant with a net electrical power output of 3.71 × 105 kW is developed and investigated. The electrical efficiency of the process is found to be 60.1%. The process includes three main sub-systems: molten carbonate fuel cell system, heat recovery section and cryogenic carbon dioxide capturing process. Conventional and advanced exergoeconomic methods are used for analyzing the process. Advanced exergoeconomic analysis is a comprehensive evaluation tool which combines an exergetic approach with economic analysis procedures. With this method, investment and exergy destruction costs of the process components are divided into endogenous/exogenous and avoidable/unavoidable parts. Results of the conventional exergoeconomic analyses demonstrate that the combustion chamber has the largest exergy destruction rate (182 MW) and cost rate (13,100 /h). Also, the total process cost rate can be decreased by reducing the cost rate of the fuel cell and improving the efficiency of the combustion chamber and heat recovery steam generator. Based on the total avoidable endogenous cost rate, the priority for modification is the heat recovery steam generator, a compressor and a turbine of the power plant, in rank order. A sensitivity analysis is done to investigate the exergoeconomic factor parameters through changing the effective parameter variations.

Computation of restoration of ligand response in the random kinetics of a prostate cancer cell signaling pathway.

PubMed

Dana, Saswati; Nakakuki, Takashi; Hatakeyama, Mariko; Kimura, Shuhei; Raha, Soumyendu

2011-01-01

Mutation and/or dysfunction of signaling proteins in the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signal transduction pathway are frequently observed in various kinds of human cancer. Consistent with this fact, in the present study, we experimentally observe that the epidermal growth factor (EGF) induced activation profile of MAP kinase signaling is not straightforward dose-dependent in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. To find out what parameters and reactions in the pathway are involved in this departure from the normal dose-dependency, a model-based pathway analysis is performed. The pathway is mathematically modeled with 28 rate equations yielding those many ordinary differential equations (ODE) with kinetic rate constants that have been reported to take random values in the existing literature. This has led to us treating the ODE model of the pathways kinetics as a random differential equations (RDE) system in which the parameters are random variables. We show that our RDE model captures the uncertainty in the kinetic rate constants as seen in the behavior of the experimental data and more importantly, upon simulation, exhibits the abnormal EGF dose-dependency of the activation profile of MAP kinase signaling in PC3 prostate cancer cells. The most likely set of values of the kinetic rate constants obtained from fitting the RDE model into the experimental data is then used in a direct transcription based dynamic optimization method for computing the changes needed in these kinetic rate constant values for the restoration of the normal EGF dose response. The last computation identifies the parameters, i.e., the kinetic rate constants in the RDE model, that are the most sensitive to the change in the EGF dose response behavior in the PC3 prostate cancer cells. The reactions in which these most sensitive parameters participate emerge as candidate drug targets on the signaling pathway. 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the supernova unknowns at the next-generation neutrino telescopes through the diffuse neutrino background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MØller, Klaes; Suliga, Anna M.; Tamborra, Irene; Denton, Peter B.

2018-05-01

The detection of the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) will preciously contribute to gauge the properties of the core-collapse supernova population. We estimate the DSNB event rate in the next-generation neutrino detectors, Hyper-Kamiokande enriched with Gadolinium, JUNO, and DUNE. The determination of the supernova unknowns through the DSNB will be heavily driven by Hyper-Kamiokande, given its higher expected event rate, and complemented by DUNE that will help in reducing the parameters uncertainties. Meanwhile, JUNO will be sensitive to the DSNB signal over the largest energy range. A joint statistical analysis of the expected rates in 20 years of data taking from the above detectors suggests that we will be sensitive to the local supernova rate at most at a 20‑33% level. A non-zero fraction of supernovae forming black holes will be confirmed at a 90% CL, if the true value of that fraction is gtrsim20%. On the other hand, the DSNB events show extremely poor statistical sensitivity to the nuclear equation of state and mass accretion rate of the progenitors forming black holes.

Heat and mass transport during microwave heating of mashed potato in domestic oven--model development, validation, and sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Jiajia; Pitchai, Krishnamoorthy; Birla, Sohan; Negahban, Mehrdad; Jones, David; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan

2014-10-01

A 3-dimensional finite-element model coupling electromagnetics and heat and mass transfer was developed to understand the interactions between the microwaves and fresh mashed potato in a 500 mL tray. The model was validated by performing heating of mashed potato from 25 °C on a rotating turntable in a microwave oven, rated at 1200 W, for 3 min. The simulated spatial temperature profiles on the top and bottom layer of the mashed potato showed similar hot and cold spots when compared to the thermal images acquired by an infrared camera. Transient temperature profiles at 6 locations collected by fiber-optic sensors showed good agreement with predicted results, with the root mean square error ranging from 1.6 to 11.7 °C. The predicted total moisture loss matched well with the observed result. Several input parameters, such as the evaporation rate constant, the intrinsic permeability of water and gas, and the diffusion coefficient of water and gas, are not readily available for mashed potato, and they cannot be easily measured experimentally. Reported values for raw potato were used as baseline values. A sensitivity analysis of these input parameters on the temperature profiles and the total moisture loss was evaluated by changing the baseline values to their 10% and 1000%. The sensitivity analysis showed that the gas diffusion coefficient, intrinsic water permeability, and the evaporation rate constant greatly influenced the predicted temperature and total moisture loss, while the intrinsic gas permeability and the water diffusion coefficient had little influence. This model can be used by the food product developers to understand microwave heating of food products spatially and temporally. This tool will allow food product developers to design food package systems that would heat more uniformly in various microwave ovens. The sensitivity analysis of this study will help us determine the most significant parameters that need to be measured accurately for reliable model prediction. © 2014 Institute of Food Technologists®

Creep of quartz by dislocation and grain boundary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, J. I.; Holyoke, C. W., III; Kronenberg, A. K.

2015-12-01

Wet polycrystalline quartz aggregates deformed at temperatures T of 600°-900°C and strain rates of 10-4-10-6 s-1 at a confining pressure Pc of 1.5 GPa exhibit plasticity at low T, governed by dislocation glide and limited recovery, and grain size-sensitive creep at high T, governed by diffusion and sliding at grain boundaries. Quartz aggregates were HIP-synthesized, subjecting natural milky quartz powder to T=900°C and Pc=1.5 GPa, and grain sizes (2 to 25 mm) were varied by annealing at these conditions for up to 10 days. Infrared absorption spectra exhibit a broad OH band at 3400 cm-1 due to molecular water inclusions with a calculated OH content (~4000 ppm, H/106Si) that is unchanged by deformation. Rate-stepping experiments reveal different stress-strain rate functions at different temperatures and grain sizes, which correspond to differing stress-temperature sensitivities. At 600-700°C and grain sizes of 5-10 mm, flow law parameters compare favorably with those for basal plasticity and dislocation creep of wet quartzites (effective stress exponents n of 3 to 6 and activation enthalpy H* ~150 kJ/mol). Deformed samples show undulatory extinction, limited recrystallization, and c-axis maxima parallel to the shortening direction. Similarly fine-grained samples deformed at 800°-900°C exhibit flow parameters n=1.3-2.0 and H*=135-200 kJ/mol corresponding to grain size-sensitive Newtonian creep. Deformed samples show some undulatory extinction and grain sizes change by recrystallization; however, grain boundary deformation processes are indicated by the low value of n. Our experimental results for grain size-sensitive creep can be compared with models of grain boundary diffusion and grain boundary sliding using measured rates of silicon grain boundary diffusion. While many quartz mylonites show microstructural and textural evidence for dislocation creep, results for grain size-sensitive creep may apply to very fine-grained (<10 mm) quartz mylonites.

Sensitivity Analysis of Methane Hydrate Reservoirs: Effects of Reservoir Parameters on Gas Productivity and Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. J.; Gaddipati, M.; Nyayapathi, L.

2008-12-01

This paper presents a parametric study on production rates of natural gas from gas hydrates by the method of depressurization, using CMG STARS. Seven factors/parameters were considered as perturbations from a base-case hydrate reservoir description based on Problem 7 of the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison Study led by the Department of Energy and the USGS. This reservoir is modeled after the inferred properties of the hydrate deposit at the Prudhoe Bay L-106 site. The included sensitivity variables were hydrate saturation, pressure (depth), temperature, bottom-hole pressure of the production well, free water saturation, intrinsic rock permeability, and porosity. A two-level (L=2) Plackett-Burman experimental design was used to study the relative effects of these factors. The measured variable was the discounted cumulative gas production. The discount rate chosen was 15%, resulting in the gas contribution to the net present value of a reservoir. Eight different designs were developed for conducting sensitivity analysis and the effects of the parameters on the real and discounted production rates will be discussed. The breakeven price in various cases and the dependence of the breakeven price on the production parameters is given in the paper. As expected, initial reservoir temperature has the strongest positive effect on the productivity of a hydrate deposit and the bottom-hole pressure in the production well has the strongest negative dependence. Also resulting in a positive correlation is the intrinsic permeability and the initial free water of the formation. Negative effects were found for initial hydrate saturation (at saturations greater than 50% of the pore space) and the reservoir porosity. These negative effects are related to the available sensible heat of the reservoir, with decreasing productivity due to decreasing available sensible heat. Finally, we conclude that for the base case reservoir, the break-even price (BEP) for natural gas is approximately 7/mcf and for warmer and deeper reservoirs the BEP can approach 5.33/mcf.

Correlation between the Temperature Dependence of Intrsinsic Mr Parameters and Thermal Dose Measured by a Rapid Chemical Shift Imaging Technique

PubMed Central

Taylor, Brian A.; Elliott, Andrew M.; Hwang, Ken-Pin; Hazle, John D.; Stafford, R. Jason

2011-01-01

In order to investigate simultaneous MR temperature imaging and direct validation of tissue damage during thermal therapy, temperature-dependent signal changes in proton resonance frequency (PRF) shifts, R2* values, and T1-weighted amplitudes are measured from one technique in ex vivo tissue heated with a 980-nm laser at 1.5T and 3.0T. Using a multi-gradient echo acquisition and signal modeling with the Stieglitz-McBride algorithm, the temperature sensitivity coefficient (TSC) values of these parameters are measured in each tissue at high spatiotemporal resolutions (1.6×1.6×4mm3,≤5sec) at the range of 25-61 °C. Non-linear changes in MR parameters are examined and correlated with an Arrhenius rate dose model of thermal damage. Using logistic regression, the probability of changes in these parameters is calculated as a function of thermal dose to determine if changes correspond to thermal damage. Temperature calibrations demonstrate TSC values which are consistent with previous studies. Temperature sensitivity of R2* and, in some cases, T1-weighted amplitudes are statistically different before and after thermal damage occurred. Significant changes in the slopes of R2* as a function of temperature are observed. Logistic regression analysis shows that these changes could be accurately predicted using the Arrhenius rate dose model (Ω=1.01±0.03), thereby showing that the changes in R2* could be direct markers of protein denaturation. Overall, by using a chemical shift imaging technique with simultaneous temperature estimation, R2* mapping and T1-W imaging, it is shown that changes in the sensitivity of R2* and, to a lesser degree, T1-W amplitudes are measured in ex vivo tissue when thermal damage is expected to occur according to Arrhenius rate dose models. These changes could possibly be used for direct validation of thermal damage in contrast to model-based predictions. PMID:21721063

Enhanced bimolecular exchange reaction through programmed coordination of a five-coordinate oxovanadium complex for efficient redox mediation in dye-sensitized solar cells.

PubMed

Oyaizu, Kenichi; Hayo, Noriko; Sasada, Yoshito; Kato, Fumiaki; Nishide, Hiroyuki

2013-12-07

Electrochemical reversibility and fast bimolecular exchange reaction found for VO(salen) gave rise to a highly efficient redox mediation to enhance the photocurrent of a dye-sensitized solar cell, leading to an excellent photovoltaic performance with a conversion efficiency of 5.4%. A heterogeneous electron-transfer rate constant at an electrode (k0) and a second-order rate constant for an electron self-exchange reaction (k(ex)) were proposed as key parameters that dominate the charge transport property, which afforded a novel design concept for the mediators based on their kinetic aspects.

Effect of CO2 Solubility on Dissolution Rates of Minerals in Porous Media Imbibed with Brine: Actual Efficiency of CO2 Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh Nomeli, M.; Riaz, A.

2016-12-01

A new model is developed for geochemical reactions to access dissolution rate of minerals in saline aquifers with respect to saturated concentration of dissolved CO2 as a function of parameters that are dynamically available during computer program execution such as pressure, temperature, and salinity. A general Arrhenius-type equation, with an explicit dependence on the pH of brine, is employed to determine the rates of mineral dissolution. The amount of dissolved CO2 is determined with the help of an accurate PVTx model for the temperature range of 50-100C and pressures up to 600 bar relevant to the geologic sequestration of CO2. We show how activity coefficients for a given salinity condition alters solubility, pH, and reaction rates. We further evaluate the significance of the pre-exponential factor and the reaction order associated with the modified Arrhenius equation to determine the sensitivity of the reaction rates as a function to the pH of the system. It is found that the model can reasonably reproduce experimental data with new parameters that we obtain from sensitivity studies. Using the new rate equation, we investigate geochemically induced alterations of fracture geometry due to mineral dissolution. Finally, we use our model to evaluate the effects of temperature, pressure, and salinity on the actual efficiency of CO2 storage.

Modeling carbon cycle process of soil profile in Loess Plateau of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Finke, P.; Guo, Z.; Wu, H.

2011-12-01

SoilGen2 is a process-based model, which could reconstruct soil formation under various climate conditions, parent materials, vegetation types, slopes, expositions and time scales. Both organic and inorganic carbon cycle processes could be simulated, while the later process is important in carbon cycle of arid and semi-arid regions but seldom being studied. After calibrating parameters of dust deposition rate and segments depth affecting elements transportation and deposition in the profile, modeling results after 10000 years were confronted with measurements of two soil profiles in loess plateau of China, The simulated trends of organic carbon and CaCO3 in the profile are similar to measured values. Relative sensitivity analysis for carbon cycle process have been done and the results show that the change of organic carbon in long time scale is more sensitive to precipitation, temperature, plant carbon input and decomposition parameters (decomposition rate of humus, ratio of CO2/(BIO+HUM), etc.) in the model. As for the inorganic carbon cycle, precipitation and potential evaporation are important for simulation quality, while the leaching and deposition of CaCO3 are not sensitive to pCO2 and temperature of atmosphere.

Effect of substrate baking temperature on zinc sulfide and germanium thin films optical parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fang; Gao, Jiaobo; Yang, Chongmin; Zhang, Jianfu; Liu, Yongqiang; Liu, Qinglong; Wang, Songlin; Mi, Gaoyuan; Wang, Huina

2016-10-01

ZnS and Ge are very normal optical thin film materials in Infrared wave. Studying the influence of different substrate baking temperature to refractive index and actual deposition rates is very important to promote optical thin film quality. In the same vacuum level, monitoring thickness and evaporation rate, we use hot evaporation to deposit ZnS thin film materials and use ion-assisted electron beam to deposit Ge thin film materials with different baking temperature. We measure the spectral transmittance with the spectrophotometer and calculate the actual deposition rates and the refractive index in different temperature. With the higher and higher temperature in a particular range, ZnS and Ge refractive index become higher and actual deposition rates become smaller. The refractive index of Ge film material change with baking temperature is more sensitive than ZnS. However, ZnS film actual deposition rates change with baking temperature is more sensitive than Ge.

Modeling of Mitochondria Bioenergetics Using a Composable Chemiosmotic Energy Transduction Rate Law: Theory and Experimental Validation

PubMed Central

Chang, Ivan; Heiske, Margit; Letellier, Thierry; Wallace, Douglas; Baldi, Pierre

2011-01-01

Mitochondrial bioenergetic processes are central to the production of cellular energy, and a decrease in the expression or activity of enzyme complexes responsible for these processes can result in energetic deficit that correlates with many metabolic diseases and aging. Unfortunately, existing computational models of mitochondrial bioenergetics either lack relevant kinetic descriptions of the enzyme complexes, or incorporate mechanisms too specific to a particular mitochondrial system and are thus incapable of capturing the heterogeneity associated with these complexes across different systems and system states. Here we introduce a new composable rate equation, the chemiosmotic rate law, that expresses the flux of a prototypical energy transduction complex as a function of: the saturation kinetics of the electron donor and acceptor substrates; the redox transfer potential between the complex and the substrates; and the steady-state thermodynamic force-to-flux relationship of the overall electro-chemical reaction. Modeling of bioenergetics with this rate law has several advantages: (1) it minimizes the use of arbitrary free parameters while featuring biochemically relevant parameters that can be obtained through progress curves of common enzyme kinetics protocols; (2) it is modular and can adapt to various enzyme complex arrangements for both in vivo and in vitro systems via transformation of its rate and equilibrium constants; (3) it provides a clear association between the sensitivity of the parameters of the individual complexes and the sensitivity of the system's steady-state. To validate our approach, we conduct in vitro measurements of ETC complex I, III, and IV activities using rat heart homogenates, and construct an estimation procedure for the parameter values directly from these measurements. In addition, we show the theoretical connections of our approach to the existing models, and compare the predictive accuracy of the rate law with our experimentally fitted parameters to those of existing models. Finally, we present a complete perturbation study of these parameters to reveal how they can significantly and differentially influence global flux and operational thresholds, suggesting that this modeling approach could help enable the comparative analysis of mitochondria from different systems and pathological states. The procedures and results are available in Mathematica notebooks at http://www.igb.uci.edu/tools/sb/mitochondria-modeling.html. PMID:21931590

Modeling of mitochondria bioenergetics using a composable chemiosmotic energy transduction rate law: theory and experimental validation.

PubMed

Chang, Ivan; Heiske, Margit; Letellier, Thierry; Wallace, Douglas; Baldi, Pierre

2011-01-01

Mitochondrial bioenergetic processes are central to the production of cellular energy, and a decrease in the expression or activity of enzyme complexes responsible for these processes can result in energetic deficit that correlates with many metabolic diseases and aging. Unfortunately, existing computational models of mitochondrial bioenergetics either lack relevant kinetic descriptions of the enzyme complexes, or incorporate mechanisms too specific to a particular mitochondrial system and are thus incapable of capturing the heterogeneity associated with these complexes across different systems and system states. Here we introduce a new composable rate equation, the chemiosmotic rate law, that expresses the flux of a prototypical energy transduction complex as a function of: the saturation kinetics of the electron donor and acceptor substrates; the redox transfer potential between the complex and the substrates; and the steady-state thermodynamic force-to-flux relationship of the overall electro-chemical reaction. Modeling of bioenergetics with this rate law has several advantages: (1) it minimizes the use of arbitrary free parameters while featuring biochemically relevant parameters that can be obtained through progress curves of common enzyme kinetics protocols; (2) it is modular and can adapt to various enzyme complex arrangements for both in vivo and in vitro systems via transformation of its rate and equilibrium constants; (3) it provides a clear association between the sensitivity of the parameters of the individual complexes and the sensitivity of the system's steady-state. To validate our approach, we conduct in vitro measurements of ETC complex I, III, and IV activities using rat heart homogenates, and construct an estimation procedure for the parameter values directly from these measurements. In addition, we show the theoretical connections of our approach to the existing models, and compare the predictive accuracy of the rate law with our experimentally fitted parameters to those of existing models. Finally, we present a complete perturbation study of these parameters to reveal how they can significantly and differentially influence global flux and operational thresholds, suggesting that this modeling approach could help enable the comparative analysis of mitochondria from different systems and pathological states. The procedures and results are available in Mathematica notebooks at http://www.igb.uci.edu/tools/sb/mitochondria-modeling.html.

Evaluation of PeneloPET Simulations of Biograph PET/CT Scanners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abushab, K. M.; Herraiz, J. L.; Vicente, E.; Cal-González, J.; España, S.; Vaquero, J. J.; Jakoby, B. W.; Udías, J. M.

2016-06-01

Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used in positron emission tomography (PET) for optimizing detector design, acquisition protocols, and evaluating corrections and reconstruction methods. PeneloPET is a MC code based on PENELOPE, for PET simulations which considers detector geometry, acquisition electronics and materials, and source definitions. While PeneloPET has been successfully employed and validated with small animal PET scanners, it required a proper validation with clinical PET scanners including time-of-flight (TOF) information. For this purpose, we chose the family of Biograph PET/CT scanners: the Biograph True-Point (B-TP), Biograph True-Point with TrueV (B-TPTV) and the Biograph mCT. They have similar block detectors and electronics, but a different number of rings and configuration. Some effective parameters of the simulations, such as the dead-time and the size of the reflectors in the detectors, were adjusted to reproduce the sensitivity and noise equivalent count (NEC) rate of the B-TPTV scanner. These parameters were then used to make predictions of experimental results such as sensitivity, NEC rate, spatial resolution, and scatter fraction (SF), from all the Biograph scanners and some variations of them (energy windows and additional rings of detectors). Predictions agree with the measured values for the three scanners, within 7% (sensitivity and NEC rate) and 5% (SF). The resolution obtained for the B-TPTV is slightly better (10%) than the experimental values. In conclusion, we have shown that PeneloPET is suitable for simulating and investigating clinical systems with good accuracy and short computational time, though some effort tuning of a few parameters of the scanners modeled may be needed in case that the full details of the scanners studied are not available.

Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

2014-01-01

Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement.

Designing novel cellulase systems through agent-based modeling and global sensitivity analysis

PubMed Central

Apte, Advait A; Senger, Ryan S; Fong, Stephen S

2014-01-01

Experimental techniques allow engineering of biological systems to modify functionality; however, there still remains a need to develop tools to prioritize targets for modification. In this study, agent-based modeling (ABM) was used to build stochastic models of complexed and non-complexed cellulose hydrolysis, including enzymatic mechanisms for endoglucanase, exoglucanase, and β-glucosidase activity. Modeling results were consistent with experimental observations of higher efficiency in complexed systems than non-complexed systems and established relationships between specific cellulolytic mechanisms and overall efficiency. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of model results identified key parameters for improving overall cellulose hydrolysis efficiency including: (1) the cellulase half-life, (2) the exoglucanase activity, and (3) the cellulase composition. Overall, the following parameters were found to significantly influence cellulose consumption in a consolidated bioprocess (CBP): (1) the glucose uptake rate of the culture, (2) the bacterial cell concentration, and (3) the nature of the cellulase enzyme system (complexed or non-complexed). Broadly, these results demonstrate the utility of combining modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters and/or targets for experimental improvement. PMID:24830736

Extreme sensitivity in Thermoacoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juniper, Matthew

2017-11-01

In rocket engines and gas turbines, fluctuations in the heat release rate can lock in to acoustic oscillations and grow catastrophically. Nine decades of engine development have shown that these oscillations are difficult to predict but can usually be eliminated with small ad hoc design changes. The difficulty in prediction arises because the oscillations' growth rate is exceedingly sensitive to parameters that cannot always be measured or simulated reliably, which introduces severe systematic error into thermoacoustic models of engines. Passive control strategies then have to be devised through full scale engine tests, which can be ruinously expensive. For the Apollo F1 engine, for example, 2000 full-scale tests were required. Even today, thermoacoustic oscillations often re-appear unexpectedly at full engine test stage. Although the physics is well known, a novel approach to design is required. In this presentation, the parameters of a thermoacoustic model are inferred from many thousand automated experiments using inverse uncertainty quantification. The adjoint of this model is used to obtain cheaply the gradients of every unstable mode with respect to the model parameters. This gradient information is then used in an optimization algorithm to stabilize every thermoacoustic mode by subtly changing the geometry of the model.

Uncertainty Quantification and Assessment of CO2 Leakage in Groundwater Aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, S.; Mansoor, K.; Sun, Y.; Jones, E.

2011-12-01

Complexity of subsurface aquifers and the geochemical reactions that control drinking water compositions complicate our ability to estimate the impact of leaking CO2 on groundwater quality. We combined lithologic field data from the High Plains Aquifer, numerical simulations, and uncertainty quantification analysis to assess the role of aquifer heterogeneity and physical transport on the extent of CO2 impacted plume over a 100-year period. The High Plains aquifer is a major aquifer over much of the central United States where CO2 may be sequestered in depleted oil and gas reservoirs or deep saline formations. Input parameters considered included, aquifer heterogeneity, permeability, porosity, regional groundwater flow, CO2 and TDS leakage rates over time, and the number of leakage source points. Sensitivity analysis suggest that variations in sand and clay permeability, correlation lengths, van Genuchten parameters, and CO2 leakage rate have the greatest impact on impacted volume or maximum distance from the leak source. A key finding is that relative sensitivity of the parameters changes over the 100-year period. Reduced order models developed from regression of the numerical simulations show that volume of the CO2-impacted aquifer increases over time with 2 order of magnitude variance.

Comparison of Monte Carlo simulated and measured performance parameters of miniPET scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kis, S. A.; Emri, M.; Opposits, G.; Bükki, T.; Valastyán, I.; Hegyesi, Gy.; Imrek, J.; Kalinka, G.; Molnár, J.; Novák, D.; Végh, J.; Kerek, A.; Trón, L.; Balkay, L.

2007-02-01

In vivo imaging of small laboratory animals is a valuable tool in the development of new drugs. For this purpose, miniPET, an easy to scale modular small animal PET camera has been developed at our institutes. The system has four modules, which makes it possible to rotate the whole detector system around the axis of the field of view. Data collection and image reconstruction are performed using a data acquisition (DAQ) module with Ethernet communication facility and a computer cluster of commercial PCs. Performance tests were carried out to determine system parameters, such as energy resolution, sensitivity and noise equivalent count rate. A modified GEANT4-based GATE Monte Carlo software package was used to simulate PET data analogous to those of the performance measurements. GATE was run on a Linux cluster of 10 processors (64 bit, Xeon with 3.0 GHz) and controlled by a SUN grid engine. The application of this special computer cluster reduced the time necessary for the simulations by an order of magnitude. The simulated energy spectra, maximum rate of true coincidences and sensitivity of the camera were in good agreement with the measured parameters.

Sensitivity to binaural timing in bilateral cochlear implant users.

PubMed

van Hoesel, Richard J M

2007-04-01

Various measures of binaural timing sensitivity were made in three bilateral cochlear implant users, who had demonstrated moderate-to-good interaural time delay (ITD) sensitivity at 100 pulses-per-second (pps). Overall, ITD thresholds increased at higher pulse rates, lower levels, and shorter durations, although intersubject differences were evident. Monaural rate-discrimination thresholds, using the same stimulation parameters, showed more substantial elevation than ITDs with increased rate. ITD sensitivity with 6000 pps stimuli, amplitude-modulated at 100 Hz, was similar to that with unmodulated pulse trains at 100 pps, but at 200 and 300 Hz performance was poorer than with unmodulated signals. Measures of sensitivity to binaural beats with unmodulated pulse-trains showed that all three subjects could use time-varying ITD cues at 100 pps, but not 300 pps, even though static ITD sensitivity was relatively unaffected over that range. The difference between static and dynamic ITD thresholds is discussed in terms of relative contributions from initial and later arriving cues, which was further examined in an experiment using two-pulse stimuli as a function of interpulse separation. In agreement with the binaural-beat data, findings from that experiment showed poor discrimination of ITDs on the second pulse when the interval between pulses was reduced to a few milliseconds.

Importance of optimizing chromatographic conditions and mass spectrometric parameters for supercritical fluid chromatography/mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Fujito, Yuka; Hayakawa, Yoshihiro; Izumi, Yoshihiro; Bamba, Takeshi

2017-07-28

Supercritical fluid chromatography/mass spectrometry (SFC/MS) has great potential in high-throughput and the simultaneous analysis of a wide variety of compounds, and it has been widely used in recent years. The use of MS for detection provides the advantages of high sensitivity and high selectivity. However, the sensitivity of MS detection depends on the chromatographic conditions and MS parameters. Thus, optimization of MS parameters corresponding to the SFC condition is mandatory for maximizing performance when connecting SFC to MS. The aim of this study was to reveal a way to decide the optimum composition of the mobile phase and the flow rate of the make-up solvent for MS detection in a wide range of compounds. Additionally, we also showed the basic concept for determination of the optimum values of the MS parameters focusing on the MS detection sensitivity in SFC/MS analysis. To verify the versatility of these findings, a total of 441 pesticides with a wide polarity range (logP ow from -4.21 to 7.70) and pKa (acidic, neutral and basic). In this study, a new SFC-MS interface was used, which can transfer the entire volume of eluate into the MS by directly coupling the SFC with the MS. This enabled us to compare the sensitivity or optimum MS parameters for MS detection between LC/MS and SFC/MS for the same sample volume introduced into the MS. As a result, it was found that the optimum values of some MS parameters were completely different from those of LC/MS, and that SFC/MS-specific optimization of the analytical conditions is required. Lastly, we evaluated the sensitivity of SFC/MS using fully optimized analytical conditions. As a result, we confirmed that SFC/MS showed much higher sensitivity than LC/MS when the analytical conditions were fully optimized for SFC/MS; and the high sensitivity also increase the number of the compounds that can be detected with good repeatability in real sample analysis. This result indicates that SFC/MS has potential for practical use in the multiresidue analysis of a wide range of compounds that requires high sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat patients at risk for fragility fractures.

PubMed

Nelson, S D; Nelson, R E; Cannon, G W; Lawrence, P; Battistone, M J; Grotzke, M; Rosenblum, Y; LaFleur, J

2014-12-01

This is a cost-effectiveness analysis of training rural providers to identify and treat osteoporosis. Results showed a slight cost savings, increase in life years, increase in treatment rates, and decrease in fracture incidence. However, the results were sensitive to small differences in effectiveness, being cost-effective in 70 % of simulations during probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures relative to referring these patients to an urban medical center for specialist care. The model evaluated the impact of training on patient life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment rates, fracture incidence, and costs from the perspective of the Department of Veterans Affairs. We constructed a Markov microsimulation model to compare costs and outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of veterans seen by rural providers. Parameter estimates were derived from previously published studies, and we conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses on the parameter inputs. Base-case analysis showed that training resulted in no additional costs and an extra 0.083 life years (0.054 QALYs). Our model projected that as a result of training, more patients with osteoporosis would receive treatment (81.3 vs. 12.2 %), and all patients would have a lower incidence of fractures per 1,000 patient years (hip, 1.628 vs. 1.913; clinical vertebral, 0.566 vs. 1.037) when seen by a trained provider compared to an untrained provider. Results remained consistent in one-way sensitivity analysis and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses, training rural providers was cost-effective (less than $50,000/QALY) in 70 % of the simulations. Training rural providers to identify and treat veterans at risk for fragility fractures has a potential to be cost-effective, but the results are sensitive to small differences in effectiveness. It appears that provider education alone is not enough to make a significant difference in fragility fracture rates among veterans.

Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of Metabolic Controllers During Reductions in Skeletal Muscle Blood Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan; Cabrera, Marco

2000-01-01

An acute reduction in oxygen delivery to skeletal muscle is generally associated with profound derangements in substrate metabolism. Given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to quantify the interaction of cellular metabolic processes to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in oxygen availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and their regulation. In this study, we apply a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to study effects of ischemia during periods of increased ATP turnover (e.g., exercise). By using systematic sensitivity analysis the oxidative phosphorylation rate was found to be the most important rate parameter affecting lactate production during ischemia under resting conditions. Here we examine whether mild exercise under ischemic conditions alters the relative importance of pathways and parameters previously obtained.

Searches for millisecond pulsations in low-mass X-ray binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, K. S.; Hertz, P.; Norris, J. P.; Vaughan, B. A.; Michelson, P. F.; Mitsuda, K.; Lewin, W. H. G.; Van Paradijs, J.; Penninx, W.; Van Der Klis, M.

1991-01-01

High-sensitivity search techniques for millisecond periods are presented and applied to data from the Japanese satellite Ginga and HEAO 1. The search is optimized for pulsed signals whose period, drift rate, and amplitude conform with what is expected for low-class X-ray binary (LMXB) sources. Consideration is given to how the current understanding of LMXBs guides the search strategy and sets these parameter limits. An optimized one-parameter coherence recovery technique (CRT) developed for recovery of phase coherence is presented. This technique provides a large increase in sensitivity over the method of incoherent summation of Fourier power spectra. The range of spin periods expected from LMXB phenomenology is discussed, the necessary constraints on the application of CRT are described in terms of integration time and orbital parameters, and the residual power unrecovered by the quadratic approximation for realistic cases is estimated.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

Modelling phosphorus transport and its response to climate change at upper stream of Poyang Lake-the largest fresh water lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Phosphorus losses from excessive fertilizer application and improper land exploitation were found to be the limiting factor for freshwater quality deterioration and eutrophication. Phosphorus transport from uplands to river is related to hydrological, soil erosion and sediment transport processes, which is impacted by several physiographic and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of phosphorus losses and response to climate change at a typical upstream tributary (Le'An river) of Poyang Lake. To this end, a process-oriented hydrological and nutrient transport model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) was set up for discharge and phosphorus transport simulation at Le'An catchment. Parameter ESTimator (PEST) was combined with HYPE model for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimisation. In runoff modelling, potential evapotranspiration rate of the dominant land use (forest) is most sensitive; parameters of surface runoff rate and percolation capacity for the red soil are also very sensitive. In phosphorus transport modelling, the exponent of equation for soil erosion processes induced by surface runoff is most sensitive, coefficient of adsorption/desorption processes for red soil is also very sensitive. Flow dynamics and water balance were simulated well at all sites for the whole period (1978-1986) with NSE≥0.80 and PBIAS≤14.53%. The optimized hydrological parameter set were transferable for the independent period (2009-2010) with NSE≥0.90 and highest PBIAS of -7.44% in stream flow simulation. Seasonal dynamics and balance of stream water TP (Total Phosphorus ) concentrations were captured satisfactorily indicated by NSE≥0.53 and highest PBIAS of 16.67%. In annual scale, most phosphorus is transported via surface runoff during heavy storm flow events, which may account for about 70% of annual TP loads. Based on future climate change analysis under three different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), there is no considerable change in average annual rainfall amount in 2020-2035 while increasing occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events were predicted. The validated HYPE model was run on the three emission scenarios. Overall increase of TP loads was found in future with the largest increase of annual TP loads under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study (i) verified the transferability of HYPE model at humid subtropical and heterogeneous catchment; (ii) revealed the sensitive hydrological and phosphorus transport processes and relevant parameters; (iii) implied more TP losses in future in response to increasing extreme rainfall events.

Effect of mechanical properties on erosion resistance of ductile materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Boris Feliksovih

Solid particle erosion (SPE) resistance of ductile Fe, Ni, and Co-based alloys as well as commercially pure Ni and Cu was studied. A model for SPE behavior of ductile materials is presented. The model incorporates the mechanical properties of the materials at the deformation conditions associated with SPE process, as well as the evolution of these properties during the erosion induced deformation. An erosion parameter was formulated based on consideration of the energy loss during erosion, and incorporates the material's hardness and toughness at high strain rates. The erosion model predicts that materials combining high hardness and toughness can exhibit good erosion resistance. To measure mechanical properties of materials, high strain rate compression tests using Hopkinson bar technique were conducted at strain rates similar to those during erosion. From these tests, failure strength and strain during erosion were estimated and used to calculate toughness of the materials. The proposed erosion parameter shows good correlation with experimentally measured erosion rates for all tested materials. To analyze subsurface deformation during erosion, microhardness and nanoindentation tests were performed on the cross-sections of the eroded materials and the size of the plastically deformed zone and the increase in materials hardness due to erosion were determined. A nanoindentation method was developed to estimate the restitution coefficient within plastically deformed regions of the eroded samples which provides a measure of the rebounding ability of a material during particle impact. An increase in hardness near the eroded surface led to an increase in restitution coefficient. Also, the stress rates imposed below the eroded surface were comparable to those measured during high strain-rate compression tests (10sp3-10sp4 ssp{-1}). A new parameter, "area under the microhardness curve" was developed that represents the ability of a material to absorb impact energy. By incorporating this parameter into a new erosion model, good correlation was observed with experimentally measured erosion rates. An increase in area under the microhardness curve led to an increase in erosion resistance. It was shown that an increase in hardness below the eroded surface occurs mainly due to the strain-rate hardening effect. Strain-rate sensitivities of tested materials were estimated from the nanoindentation tests and showed a decrease with an increase in materials hardness. Also, materials combining high hardness and strain-rate sensitivity may offer good erosion resistance. A methodology is presented to determine the proper mechanical properties to incorporate into the erosion parameter based on the physical model of the erosion mechanism in ductile materials.

An Indirect System Identification Technique for Stable Estimation of Continuous-Time Parameters of the Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (VOR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Wallin, Ragnar; Boyle, Richard D.

2013-01-01

The vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) is a well-known dual mode bifurcating system that consists of slow and fast modes associated with nystagmus and saccade, respectively. Estimation of continuous-time parameters of nystagmus and saccade models are known to be sensitive to estimation methodology, noise and sampling rate. The stable and accurate estimation of these parameters are critical for accurate disease modelling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, mission planning for space exploration and pilot safety, etc. This paper presents a novel indirect system identification method for the estimation of continuous-time parameters of VOR employing standardised least-squares with dual sampling rates in a sparse structure. This approach permits the stable and simultaneous estimation of both nystagmus and saccade data. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated via simulation of a continuous-time model of VOR with typical parameters found in clinical studies and in the presence of output additive noise.

Rate-equation modelling and ensemble approach to extraction of parameters for viral infection-induced cell apoptosis and necrosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domanskyi, Sergii; Schilling, Joshua E.; Gorshkov, Vyacheslav; Libert, Sergiy; Privman, Vladimir

2016-09-01

We develop a theoretical approach that uses physiochemical kinetics modelling to describe cell population dynamics upon progression of viral infection in cell culture, which results in cell apoptosis (programmed cell death) and necrosis (direct cell death). Several model parameters necessary for computer simulation were determined by reviewing and analyzing available published experimental data. By comparing experimental data to computer modelling results, we identify the parameters that are the most sensitive to the measured system properties and allow for the best data fitting. Our model allows extraction of parameters from experimental data and also has predictive power. Using the model we describe interesting time-dependent quantities that were not directly measured in the experiment and identify correlations among the fitted parameter values. Numerical simulation of viral infection progression is done by a rate-equation approach resulting in a system of "stiff" equations, which are solved by using a novel variant of the stochastic ensemble modelling approach. The latter was originally developed for coupled chemical reactions.

Rate-equation modelling and ensemble approach to extraction of parameters for viral infection-induced cell apoptosis and necrosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domanskyi, Sergii; Schilling, Joshua; Gorshkov, Vyacheslav; Libert, Sergiy; Privman, Vladimir

We develop a theoretical approach that uses physiochemical kinetics modelling to describe cell population dynamics upon progression of viral infection in cell culture, which results in cell apoptosis (programmed cell death) and necrosis (direct cell death). Several model parameters necessary for computer simulation were determined by reviewing and analyzing available published experimental data. By comparing experimental data to computer modelling results, we identify the parameters that are the most sensitive to the measured system properties and allow for the best data fitting. Our model allows extraction of parameters from experimental data and also has predictive power. Using the model we describe interesting time-dependent quantities that were not directly measured in the experiment and identify correlations among the fitted parameter values. Numerical simulation of viral infection progression is done by a rate-equation approach resulting in a system of ``stiff'' equations, which are solved by using a novel variant of the stochastic ensemble modelling approach. The latter was originally developed for coupled chemical reactions.

Two-year evaluation indicates zirconia bridges acceptable alternative to PFMs.

PubMed

Perry, Ronald D; Kugel, Gerard; Sharma, Shradha; Ferreira, Susana; Magnuson, Britta

2012-01-01

The aim of this in-vivo study was to evaluate the 2-year clinical performance of zirconia computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM)-generated bridges. A total of 16 three- or four-unit Lava zirconia bridges were done on 15 subjects. The bridges were cemented using RelyX™ Unicem Self-Adhesive Universal Resin Cement. Evaluation was done at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year recall visits. Evaluation criteria were color stability and matching, marginal integrity, marginal discoloration, incidence of caries, changes in restoration-tooth interface, changes in surface texture, postoperative sensitivity, maintenance of periodontal health, changes in proximal and opposing teeth, and maintenance of anatomic form. In each of these parameters, the bridges were rated in one of three possible categories: "A" (alpha)--ideal; "B" (bravo)--acceptable; and "C" (charlie)--unacceptable. After 2 years, 100% of the bridges were rated "A" for color stability and matching, marginal discoloration, incidence of caries, changes in restoration-tooth interface, changes in surface texture, postoperative sensitivity, and change in proximal or opposing teeth. In the parameter of marginal integrity, 6.25% of the bridges were rated "B;" the remaining 93.75% were rated "A." Maintenance of periodontal health was rated "B" for 6.25% of the bridges and "A" for 93.75%. At 2 years, 12.5% of the bridges rated "C" in maintenance of anatomic form and 87.5% rated "A." The overall clinical outcome was that the CAD/CAM-generated zirconia bridges were clinically acceptable.

Some Physical Parameters to Effect the Production of Heamatococcus pluvialis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akpolat, O.; Eristurk, S.

The aim of this study is to optimize the physical parameters affecting the production of Haematococcus pluvialis in photobioreactors and to simulate the process. Heamatococcus pluvialis is a green microalgea to have a great interest for production of natural astaxanthin and it can be cultivated in a closed photobiorector system under controlled conditions. Biomass composition, growth rate and high value product spectra like polyunsaturated fatty acids, pigments, poly saccariydes or vitamins depend on strongly the parameters of cultivation process. These are composition of cultivation medium, mixing model and aeration rate, hydrodynamic stress of medium which can be changed by adding some chemicals, cultivation temperature, pH, carbon dioxide and oxygen supply and most important of all: illumination. One of the most important problems during the cultivation is that cells have sensitivity to shear stress very much and the shear stress created by aeration and mixing effects the growth rate of the cell negatively and decreases yield. In this study, physical parameters such as; the rate of the air fed into the reactor, the mixing type, the reduction of the hydrodynamic stress by CMC addition, the effect of the cell size on the cell production and the flocculation speed of the culture, were investigated.

Sensitivity analysis by approximation formulas - Illustrative examples. [reliability analysis of six-component architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, A. L.

1983-01-01

This paper examines the reliability of three architectures for six components. For each architecture, the probabilities of the failure states are given by algebraic formulas involving the component fault rate, the system recovery rate, and the operating time. The dominant failure modes are identified, and the change in reliability is considered with respect to changes in fault rate, recovery rate, and operating time. The major conclusions concern the influence of system architecture on failure modes and parameter requirements. Without this knowledge, a system designer may pick an inappropriate structure.

[Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

PubMed

He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

2016-02-01

Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

2008-01-01

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

[Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

PubMed

Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

2014-05-01

Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

Behavior of sensitivities in the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation: Implications for parameter estimation and sampling design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1987-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of sensitivities has a significant impact on parameter estimation and sampling design for studies of solute transport in porous media. Physical insight into the behavior of sensitivities is offered through an analysis of analytically derived sensitivities for the one-dimensional form of the advection-dispersion equation. When parameters are estimated in regression models of one-dimensional transport, the spatial and temporal variability in sensitivities influences variance and covariance of parameter estimates. Several principles account for the observed influence of sensitivities on parameter uncertainty. (1) Information about a physical parameter may be most accurately gained at points in space and time with a high sensitivity to the parameter. (2) As the distance of observation points from the upstream boundary increases, maximum sensitivity to velocity during passage of the solute front increases and the consequent estimate of velocity tends to have lower variance. (3) The frequency of sampling must be “in phase” with the S shape of the dispersion sensitivity curve to yield the most information on dispersion. (4) The sensitivity to the dispersion coefficient is usually at least an order of magnitude less than the sensitivity to velocity. (5) The assumed probability distribution of random error in observations of solute concentration determines the form of the sensitivities. (6) If variance in random error in observations is large, trends in sensitivities of observation points may be obscured by noise and thus have limited value in predicting variance in parameter estimates among designs. (7) Designs that minimize the variance of one parameter may not necessarily minimize the variance of other parameters. (8) The time and space interval over which an observation point is sensitive to a given parameter depends on the actual values of the parameters in the underlying physical system.

Comparison of surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity with parameters of the intravenous glucose tolerance test in early lactation dairy cattle.

PubMed

Alves-Nores, V; Castillo, C; Hernandez, J; Abuelo, A

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the correlation between different surrogate indices and parameters of the intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) in dairy cows at the start of their lactation. Ten dairy cows underwent IVGTT on Days 3 to 7 after calving. Areas under the curve during the 90 min after infusion, peak and nadir concentrations, elimination rates, and times to reach half-maximal and basal concentrations for glucose, insulin, nonesterified fatty acids, and β-hydroxybutyrate were calculated. Surrogate indices were computed using the average of the IVGTT basal samples, and their correlation with the IVGTT parameters studied through the Spearman's rank test. No statistically significant or strong correlation coefficients (P > 0.05; |ρ| < 0.50) were observed between the insulin sensitivity measures derived from the IVGTT and any of the surrogate indices. Therefore, these results support that the assessment of insulin sensitivity in early lactation cattle cannot rely on the calculation of surrogate indices in just a blood sample, and the more laborious tests (ie, hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp test or IVGTT) should be employed to predict the sensitivity of the peripheral tissues to insulin accurately. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of Temperature and Dynamic Loading on the Mechanical Properties of Copper-Alloyed High-Strength Interstitial-Free Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, R.; Singh, S. B.; Bleck, W.; Mohanty, O. N.

2009-04-01

Crash resistance and formability relevant mechanical properties of a copper-alloyed interstitial-free (IF) steel processed under various conditions of batch annealing (BA), continuous annealing (CA), and postcontinuous annealing aging have been studied in a wide range of strain rate (3.33 × 10-4 to 200 s-1) and temperature (-100 °C to +20 °C). These properties have been compared with similarly processed traditional mild and high-strength IF steels. Assessment of various parameters such as strength, elongation, strain rate sensitivity of stress, strain-hardening capacity, temperature sensitivity of stress, activation volume, and specific energy absorption of all these steels implies that copper-alloyed IF steel is soft and formable in CA condition. It can be made stronger and more crash resistant than the conventional mild- or high-strength IF steels when aged to peak strength after CA. Room-temperature strain rate sensitivity of stress of the investigated steels exhibits a two-stage behavior. Copper in solution in ferrite causes solid solution softening at low temperatures (≤20 °C) and at high strain rates (200 s-1).

A strain-, cow-, and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds.

PubMed

Gussmann, Maya; Kirkeby, Carsten; Græsbøll, Kaare; Farre, Michael; Halasa, Tariq

2018-07-14

Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can be used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of different prevention and control strategies against IMI. The objective of this study was to describe a transmission framework, which simulates spread of IMI causing pathogens through different transmission modes. These include the traditional contagious and environmental spread and a new opportunistic transmission mode. In addition, the within-herd transmission dynamics of IMI causing pathogens were studied. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of input parameters on model predictions. The results show that the model is able to represent various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive to varying the transmission rate parameters and the strain-specific recovery rates from IMI. It can be used for investigating both short term operational and long term strategic decisions for the prevention and control of IMI in dairy cattle herds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibration parameters used to simulate streamflow from application of the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) to mountainous basins containing coal mines in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkins, John T.; Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Paybins, Katherine S.

2005-01-01

This report presents the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) parameters for eight basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The magnitude and characteristics of model parameters from this study will assist users of HSPF in simulating streamflow at other basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The parameter for nominal capacity of the upper-zone storage, UZSN, increased from south to north. The increase in UZSN with the increase in basin latitude could be due to decreasing slopes, decreasing rockiness of the soils, and increasing soil depths from south to north. A special action was given to the parameter for fraction of ground-water inflow that flows to inactive ground water, DEEPFR. The basis for this special action was related to the seasonal movement of the water table and transpiration from trees. The models were most sensitive to DEEPFR and the parameter for interception storage capacity, CEPSC. The models were also fairly sensitive to the parameter for an index representing the infiltration capacity of the soil, INFILT; the parameter for indicating the behavior of the ground-water recession flow, KVARY; the parameter for the basic ground-water recession rate, AGWRC; the parameter for nominal capacity of the upper zone storage, UZSN; the parameter for the interflow inflow, INTFW; the parameter for the interflow recession constant, IRC; and the parameter for lower zone evapotranspiration, LZETP.

Biological reduction of chlorinated solvents: Batch-scale geochemical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouznetsova, Irina; Mao, Xiaomin; Robinson, Clare; Barry, D. A.; Gerhard, Jason I.; McCarty, Perry L.

2010-09-01

Simulation of biodegradation of chlorinated solvents in dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zones requires a model that accounts for the complexity of processes involved and that is consistent with available laboratory studies. This paper describes such a comprehensive modeling framework that includes microbially mediated degradation processes, microbial population growth and decay, geochemical reactions, as well as interphase mass transfer processes such as DNAPL dissolution, gas formation and mineral precipitation/dissolution. All these processes can be in equilibrium or kinetically controlled. A batch modeling example was presented where the degradation of trichloroethene (TCE) and its byproducts and concomitant reactions (e.g., electron donor fermentation, sulfate reduction, pH buffering by calcite dissolution) were simulated. Local and global sensitivity analysis techniques were applied to delineate the dominant model parameters and processes. Sensitivity analysis indicated that accurate values for parameters related to dichloroethene (DCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) degradation (i.e., DCE and VC maximum utilization rates, yield due to DCE utilization, decay rate for DCE/VC dechlorinators) are important for prediction of the overall dechlorination time. These parameters influence the maximum growth rate of the DCE and VC dechlorinating microorganisms and, thus, the time required for a small initial population to reach a sufficient concentration to significantly affect the overall rate of dechlorination. Self-inhibition of chlorinated ethenes at high concentrations and natural buffering provided by the sediment were also shown to significantly influence the dechlorination time. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that the rates of the competing, nonchlorinated electron-accepting processes relative to the dechlorination kinetics also affect the overall dechlorination time. Results demonstrated that the model developed is a flexible research tool that is able to provide valuable insight into the fundamental processes and their complex interactions during bioremediation of chlorinated ethenes in DNAPL source zones.

A numerical study on the influence of the Portevin Le Chatelier effect on necking in an aluminium alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopperstad, O. S.; Børvik, T.; Berstad, T.; Lademo, O.-G.; Benallal, A.

2007-10-01

The constitutive relation proposed by McCormick (1988 Acta Metall. 36 3061-7) for materials exhibiting negative steady-state strain-rate sensitivity and the Portevin-Le Chatelier (PLC) effect is incorporated into an elastic-viscoplastic model for metals with plastic anisotropy. The constitutive model is implemented in LS-DYNA for corotational shell elements. Plastic anisotropy is taken into account by use of the yield criterion Yld2000/Yld2003 proposed by Barlat et al (2003 J. Plast. 19 1297-319) and Aretz (2004 Modelling Simul. Mater. Sci. Eng. 12 491-509). The parameters of the constitutive equations are determined for a rolled aluminium alloy (AA5083-H116) exhibiting negative steady-state strain-rate sensitivity and serrated yielding. The parameter identification is based on existing experimental data. A numerical investigation is conducted to determine the influence of the PLC effect on the onset of necking in uniaxial and biaxial tension for different overall strain rates. The numerical simulations show that the PLC effect leads to significant reductions in the strain to necking for both uniaxial and biaxial stress states. Increased surface roughness with plastic deformation is predicted for strain rates giving serrated yielding in uniaxial tension. It is likely that this is an important reason for the reduced critical strains. The characteristics of the deformation bands (orientation, width, velocity and strain rate) are also studied.

Effects of plastic deformation on microstructure and superplasticity of the in situ Al3Ti/2024Al composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Lei; Yang, Yonggang; Li, Hui; Zhao, Yutao; Wang, Xiaolu

2018-05-01

In this study, the in situ Al3Ti/2024Al composites were successfully fabricated by direct melt reaction method and subjected to forging and friction stir processing (FSP) to achieve superplasticity. Then, the microstructure and superplastic tensile behavior of the composites were investigated. The results show that the reinforcement particles are broken and grains are fine after plastic processing. Particularly, the size of reinforcement particles ranges from 0.2 μm to 5 μm and the average size of fine equiaxed grains is 5 μm after FSP processing. And the superplasticity of the composites was improved apparently. The maximum elongation of 642% was obtained at 0.15 s‑1 and 510 °C for the FSP specimen, with a strain rate sensitive parameter (m) of 0.58, indicating the FSP specimen has obtained excellent high strain rate superplasticity. The strain rate sensitivity parameter, m, ranges from 0.23 to 0.58, and the activation energy was calculated to be 135.24 kJ mol‑1. All results indicated that the main superplastic deformation mechanism was grain boundary sliding (GBS) for the FSP Al3Ti/2024Al composites.

Optimization of Parameter Ranges for Composite Tape Winding Process Based on Sensitivity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tao; Shi, Yaoyao; He, Xiaodong; Kang, Chao; Deng, Bo; Song, Shibo

2017-08-01

This study is focus on the parameters sensitivity of winding process for composite prepreg tape. The methods of multi-parameter relative sensitivity analysis and single-parameter sensitivity analysis are proposed. The polynomial empirical model of interlaminar shear strength is established by response surface experimental method. Using this model, the relative sensitivity of key process parameters including temperature, tension, pressure and velocity is calculated, while the single-parameter sensitivity curves are obtained. According to the analysis of sensitivity curves, the stability and instability range of each parameter are recognized. Finally, the optimization method of winding process parameters is developed. The analysis results show that the optimized ranges of the process parameters for interlaminar shear strength are: temperature within [100 °C, 150 °C], tension within [275 N, 387 N], pressure within [800 N, 1500 N], and velocity within [0.2 m/s, 0.4 m/s], respectively.

A sediment graph model based on SCS-CN method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, P. K.; Bhunya, P. K.; Mishra, S. K.; Chaube, U. C.

2008-01-01

SummaryThis paper proposes new conceptual sediment graph models based on coupling of popular and extensively used methods, viz., Nash model based instantaneous unit sediment graph (IUSG), soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) method, and Power law. These models vary in their complexity and this paper tests their performance using data of the Nagwan watershed (area = 92.46 km 2) (India). The sensitivity of total sediment yield and peak sediment flow rate computations to model parameterisation is analysed. The exponent of the Power law, β, is more sensitive than other model parameters. The models are found to have substantial potential for computing sediment graphs (temporal sediment flow rate distribution) as well as total sediment yield.

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drury, E.; Denholm, P.; Margolis, R.

2013-01-01

The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.

A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2010-12-01

Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine how these uncertainties will affect total emissions if any input parameter that has inherent the uncertainties is substituted by a range of values-probability distribution and varies at the same time; the 95% confidence interval of global emission annual growth rate is -1.9% to +0.2% per year.

Comparing adaptive procedures for estimating the psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task.

PubMed

Shen, Yi

2013-05-01

A subject's sensitivity to a stimulus variation can be studied by estimating the psychometric function. Generally speaking, three parameters of the psychometric function are of interest: the performance threshold, the slope of the function, and the rate at which attention lapses occur. In the present study, three psychophysical procedures were used to estimate the three-parameter psychometric function for an auditory gap detection task. These were an up-down staircase (up-down) procedure, an entropy-based Bayesian (entropy) procedure, and an updated maximum-likelihood (UML) procedure. Data collected from four young, normal-hearing listeners showed that while all three procedures provided similar estimates of the threshold parameter, the up-down procedure performed slightly better in estimating the slope and lapse rate for 200 trials of data collection. When the lapse rate was increased by mixing in random responses for the three adaptive procedures, the larger lapse rate was especially detrimental to the efficiency of the up-down procedure, and the UML procedure provided better estimates of the threshold and slope than did the other two procedures.

Sensitivity and spin-up times of cohesive sediment transport models used to simulate bathymetric change: Chapter 31

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoellhamer, D.H.; Ganju, N.K.; Mineart, P.R.; Lionberger, M.A.; Kusuda, T.; Yamanishi, H.; Spearman, J.; Gailani, J. Z.

2008-01-01

Bathymetric change in tidal environments is modulated by watershed sediment yield, hydrodynamic processes, benthic composition, and anthropogenic activities. These multiple forcings combine to complicate simple prediction of bathymetric change; therefore, numerical models are necessary to simulate sediment transport. Errors arise from these simulations, due to inaccurate initial conditions and model parameters. We investigated the response of bathymetric change to initial conditions and model parameters with a simplified zero-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, and a tidally averaged box model. The zero-dimensional model consists of a well-mixed control volume subjected to a semidiurnal tide, with a cohesive sediment bed. Typical cohesive sediment parameters were utilized for both the bed and suspended sediment. The model was run until equilibrium in terms of bathymetric change was reached, where equilibrium is defined as less than the rate of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay (2.17 mm/year). Using this state as the initial condition, model parameters were perturbed 10% to favor deposition, and the model was resumed. Perturbed parameters included, but were not limited to, maximum tidal current, erosion rate constant, and critical shear stress for erosion. Bathymetric change was most sensitive to maximum tidal current, with a 10% perturbation resulting in an additional 1.4 m of deposition over 10 years. Re-establishing equilibrium in this model required 14 years. The next most sensitive parameter was the critical shear stress for erosion; when increased 10%, an additional 0.56 m of sediment was deposited and 13 years were required to re-establish equilibrium. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model was calibrated to suspended-sediment concentration, and despite robust solution of hydrodynamic conditions it was unable to accurately hindcast bathymetric change. The tidally averaged box model was calibrated to bathymetric change data and shows rapidly evolving bathymetry in the first 10-20 years, though sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing did not vary greatly. This initial burst of bathymetric change is believed to be model adjustment to initial conditions, and suggests a spin-up time of greater than 10 years. These three diverse modeling approaches reinforce the sensitivity of cohesive sediment transport models to initial conditions and model parameters, and highlight the importance of appropriate calibration data. Adequate spin-up time of the order of years is required to initialize models, otherwise the solution will contain bathymetric change that is not due to environmental forcings, but rather improper specification of initial conditions and model parameters. Temporally intensive bathymetric change data can assist in determining initial conditions and parameters, provided they are available. Computational effort may be reduced by selectively updating hydrodynamics and bathymetry, thereby allowing time for spin-up periods. reserved.

Sensitivity Analysis Applied to Atomic Data Used for X-ray Spectrum Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallman, Tim

2006-01-01

A great deal of work has been devoted to the accumulation of accurate quantities describing atomic processes for use in analysis of astrophysical spectra. But in many situations of interest the interpretation of a quantity which is observed, such as a line flux, depends on the results of a modeling- or spectrum synthesis code. The results of such a code depends in turn 011 many atomic rates or cross sections, and the sensitivity of the observable quantity on the various rates and cross sections may be non-linear and if so cannot easily be derived analytically. In such cases the most practical approach to understanding the sensitivity of observables to atomic cross sections is to perform numerical experiments, by calculating models with various rates perturbed by random (but known) factors. In addition, it is useful to compare the results of such experiments with some sample observations, in order to focus attention on the rates which are of the greatest relevance to real observations. In this paper I will present some attempts to carry out this program, focussing on two sample datasets taken with the Chandra HETG. I will discuss the sensitivity of synthetic spectra to atomic data affecting ionization balance, temperature, and line opacity or emissivity, and discuss the implications for the ultimate goal of inferring astrophysical parameters.

Sensitivity Analysis Applied to Atomic Data Used for X-ray Spectrum Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallman, Tim

2006-01-01

A great deal of work has been devoted to the accumulation of accurate quantities describing atomic processes for use in analysis of astrophysical spectra. But in many situations of interest the interpretation of a quantity which is observed, such as a line flux, depends on the results of a modeling- or spectrum synthesis code. The results of such a code depends in turn on many atomic rates or cross sections, and the sensitivity of the observable quantity on the various rates and cross sections may be non-linear and if so cannot easily be derived analytically. In such cases the most practical approach to understanding the sensitivity of observables to atomic cross sections is to perform numerical experiments, by calculating models with various rates perturbed by random (but known) factors. In addition, it is useful to compare the results of such experiments with some sample observations, in order to focus attention on the rates which are of the greatest relevance to real observations. In this paper I will present some attempts to carry out this program, focussing on two sample datasets taken with the Chandra HETG. I will discuss the sensitivity of synthetic spectra to atomic data affecting ionization balance, temperature, and line opacity or emissivity, and discuss the implications for the ultimate goal of inferring astrophysical parameters.

Refining Reproductive Parameters for Modelling Sustainability and Extinction in Hunted Primate Populations in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

2014-01-01

Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the ‘Production Model’, and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon’s most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig’s woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48–0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

The impact of standard and hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes in the Noah-MP land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thober, S.; Cuntz, M.; Mai, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Clark, M. P.; Branch, O.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Attinger, S.

2016-12-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of processes, described by physical, chemical and empirical equations. The agility of the models to react to different meteorological conditions is artificially constrained by having hard-coded parameters in their equations. Here we searched for hard-coded parameters in the computer code of the land surface model Noah with multiple process options (Noah-MP) to assess the model's agility during parameter estimation. We found 139 hard-coded values in all Noah-MP process options in addition to the 71 standard parameters. We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis to variations of the standard and hard-coded parameters. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff, their component fluxes, as well as photosynthesis and sensible heat were evaluated at twelve catchments of the Eastern United States with very different hydro-meteorological regimes. Noah-MP's output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its standard parameters. The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Latent heat and total runoff show very similar sensitivities towards standard and hard-coded parameters. They are sensitive to both soil and plant parameters, which means that model calibrations of hydrologic or land surface models should take both soil and plant parameters into account. Sensible and latent heat exhibit almost the same sensitivities so that calibration or sensitivity analysis can be performed with either of the two. Photosynthesis has almost the same sensitivities as transpiration, which are different from the sensitivities of latent heat. Including photosynthesis and latent heat in model calibration might therefore be beneficial. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded snow parameters. These sensitivities get, however, diminished in total runoff. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

Crack Growth Properties of Sealing Glasses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Tandon, R.

2008-01-01

The crack growth properties of several sealing glasses were measured using constant stress rate testing in 2% and 95% RH (relative humidity). Crack growth parameters measured in high humidity are systematically smaller (n and B) than those measured in low humidity, and velocities for dry environments are approx. 100x lower than for wet environments. The crack velocity is very sensitivity to small changes in RH at low RH. Confidence intervals on parameters that were estimated from propagation of errors were comparable to those from Monte Carlo simulation.

Lateral directional requirements for a low L/D aeromaneuvering orbital transfer vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamble, J. D.; Spratlin, K. M.; Skalecki, L. M.

1984-01-01

The lateral-directional aerodynamics and control requirements for a low L/D (0.3) aeromaneuvering orbital transfer vehicle are evaluated. A lateral directional RCS control concept that permits a linearized analysis is utilized to evaluate the effect of Dutch Roll frequency and damping on the atmospheric guidance and control performance. The bank rate and acceleration requirements for acceptable performance are defined and the sensitivity to a parameter similar to the lateral control departure parameter but involving the RCS jets is evaluated.

Coupled carbon-water exchange of the Amazon rain forest, I. Model description, parameterization and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, E.; Meixner, F. X.; Ganzeveld, L.; Kesselmeier, J.

2005-04-01

Detailed one-dimensional multilayer biosphere-atmosphere models, also referred to as CANVEG models, are used for more than a decade to describe coupled water-carbon exchange between the terrestrial vegetation and the lower atmosphere. Within the present study, a modified CANVEG scheme is described. A generic parameterization and characterization of biophysical properties of Amazon rain forest canopies is inferred using available field measurements of canopy structure, in-canopy profiles of horizontal wind speed and radiation, canopy albedo, soil heat flux and soil respiration, photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen as well as leaf level enclosure measurements made on sunlit and shaded branches of several Amazonian tree species during the wet and dry season. The sensitivity of calculated canopy energy and CO2 fluxes to the uncertainty of individual parameter values is assessed. In the companion paper, the predicted seasonal exchange of energy, CO2, ozone and isoprene is compared to observations.

A bi-modal distribution of leaf area density with a total leaf area index of 6 is inferred from several observations in Amazonia. Predicted light attenuation within the canopy agrees reasonably well with observations made at different field sites. A comparison of predicted and observed canopy albedo shows a high model sensitivity to the leaf optical parameters for near-infrared short-wave radiation (NIR). The predictions agree much better with observations when the leaf reflectance and transmission coefficients for NIR are reduced by 25-40%. Available vertical distributions of photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen concentration suggest a low but significant light acclimation of the rain forest canopy that scales nearly linearly with accumulated leaf area.

Evaluation of the biochemical leaf model, using the enclosure measurements, showed that recommended parameter values describing the photosynthetic light response, have to be optimized. Otherwise, predicted net assimilation is overestimated by 30-50%. Two stomatal models have been tested, which apply a well established semi-empirical relationship between stomatal conductance and net assimilation. Both models differ in the way they describe the influence of humidity on stomatal response. However, they show a very similar performance within the range of observed environmental conditions. The agreement between predicted and observed stomatal conductance rates is reasonable. In general, the leaf level data suggests seasonal physiological changes, which can be reproduced reasonably well by assuming increased stomatal conductance rates during the wet season, and decreased assimilation rates during the dry season.

The sensitivity of the predicted canopy fluxes of energy and CO2 to the parameterization of canopy structure, the leaf optical parameters, and the scaling of photosynthetic parameters is relatively low (1-12%), with respect to parameter uncertainty. In contrast, modifying leaf model parameters within their uncertainty range results in much larger changes of the predicted canopy net fluxes (5-35%).

Coupled carbon-water exchange of the Amazon rain forest, I. Model description, parameterization and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, E.; Meixner, F. X.; Ganzeveld, L.; Kesselmeier, J.

2005-09-01

Detailed one-dimensional multilayer biosphere-atmosphere models, also referred to as CANVEG models, are used for more than a decade to describe coupled water-carbon exchange between the terrestrial vegetation and the lower atmosphere. Within the present study, a modified CANVEG scheme is described. A generic parameterization and characterization of biophysical properties of Amazon rain forest canopies is inferred using available field measurements of canopy structure, in-canopy profiles of horizontal wind speed and radiation, canopy albedo, soil heat flux and soil respiration, photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen as well as leaf level enclosure measurements made on sunlit and shaded branches of several Amazonian tree species during the wet and dry season. The sensitivity of calculated canopy energy and CO2 fluxes to the uncertainty of individual parameter values is assessed. In the companion paper, the predicted seasonal exchange of energy, CO2, ozone and isoprene is compared to observations.

A bi-modal distribution of leaf area density with a total leaf area index of 6 is inferred from several observations in Amazonia. Predicted light attenuation within the canopy agrees reasonably well with observations made at different field sites. A comparison of predicted and observed canopy albedo shows a high model sensitivity to the leaf optical parameters for near-infrared short-wave radiation (NIR). The predictions agree much better with observations when the leaf reflectance and transmission coefficients for NIR are reduced by 25-40%. Available vertical distributions of photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen concentration suggest a low but significant light acclimation of the rain forest canopy that scales nearly linearly with accumulated leaf area.

Evaluation of the biochemical leaf model, using the enclosure measurements, showed that recommended parameter values describing the photosynthetic light response, have to be optimized. Otherwise, predicted net assimilation is overestimated by 30-50%. Two stomatal models have been tested, which apply a well established semi-empirical relationship between stomatal conductance and net assimilation. Both models differ in the way they describe the influence of humidity on stomatal response. However, they show a very similar performance within the range of observed environmental conditions. The agreement between predicted and observed stomatal conductance rates is reasonable. In general, the leaf level data suggests seasonal physiological changes, which can be reproduced reasonably well by assuming increased stomatal conductance rates during the wet season, and decreased assimilation rates during the dry season.

The sensitivity of the predicted canopy fluxes of energy and CO2 to the parameterization of canopy structure, the leaf optical parameters, and the scaling of photosynthetic parameters is relatively low (1-12%), with respect to parameter uncertainty. In contrast, modifying leaf model parameters within their uncertainty range results in much larger changes of the predicted canopy net fluxes (5-35%).

Testing the robustness of optimal access vessel fleet selection for operation and maintenance of offshore wind farms

DOE PAGES

Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Stålhane, Magnus; Dinwoodie, Iain; ...

2017-09-23

Optimising the operation and maintenance (O&M) and logistics strategy of offshore wind farms implies the decision problem of selecting the vessel fleet for O&M. Different strategic decision support tools can be applied to this problem, but much uncertainty remains regarding both input data and modelling assumptions. Our paper aims to investigate and ultimately reduce this uncertainty by comparing four simulation tools, one mathematical optimisation tool and one analytic spreadsheet-based tool applied to select the O&M access vessel fleet that minimizes the total O&M cost of a reference wind farm. The comparison shows that the tools generally agree on the optimalmore » vessel fleet, but only partially agree on the relative ranking of the different vessel fleets in terms of total O&M cost. The robustness of the vessel fleet selection to various input data assumptions was tested, and the ranking was found to be particularly sensitive to the vessels' limiting significant wave height for turbine access. Also the parameter with the greatest discrepancy between the tools, implies that accurate quantification and modelling of this parameter is crucial. The ranking is moderately sensitive to turbine failure rates and vessel day rates but less sensitive to electricity price and vessel transit speed.« less

Testing the robustness of optimal access vessel fleet selection for operation and maintenance of offshore wind farms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Stålhane, Magnus; Dinwoodie, Iain

Optimising the operation and maintenance (O&M) and logistics strategy of offshore wind farms implies the decision problem of selecting the vessel fleet for O&M. Different strategic decision support tools can be applied to this problem, but much uncertainty remains regarding both input data and modelling assumptions. Our paper aims to investigate and ultimately reduce this uncertainty by comparing four simulation tools, one mathematical optimisation tool and one analytic spreadsheet-based tool applied to select the O&M access vessel fleet that minimizes the total O&M cost of a reference wind farm. The comparison shows that the tools generally agree on the optimalmore » vessel fleet, but only partially agree on the relative ranking of the different vessel fleets in terms of total O&M cost. The robustness of the vessel fleet selection to various input data assumptions was tested, and the ranking was found to be particularly sensitive to the vessels' limiting significant wave height for turbine access. Also the parameter with the greatest discrepancy between the tools, implies that accurate quantification and modelling of this parameter is crucial. The ranking is moderately sensitive to turbine failure rates and vessel day rates but less sensitive to electricity price and vessel transit speed.« less

Deep-space navigation with differenced data types. Part 3: An expanded information content and sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estefan, J. A.; Thurman, S. W.

1992-01-01

An approximate six-parameter analytic model for Earth-based differential range measurements is presented and is used to derive a representative analytic approximation for differenced Doppler measurements. The analytical models are tasked to investigate the ability of these data types to estimate spacecraft geocentric angular motion, Deep Space Network station oscillator (clock/frequency) offsets, and signal-path calibration errors over a period of a few days, in the presence of systematic station location and transmission media calibration errors. Quantitative results indicate that a few differenced Doppler plus ranging passes yield angular position estimates with a precision on the order of 0.1 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precision on the order of 10 to 25 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec, assuming no a priori information on the coordinate parameters. Sensitivity analyses suggest that troposphere zenith delay calibration error is the dominant systematic error source in most of the tracking scenarios investigated; as expected, the differenced Doppler data were found to be much more sensitive to troposphere calibration errors than differenced range. By comparison, results computed using wideband and narrowband (delta) VLBI under similar circumstances yielded angular precisions of 0.07 to 0.4 micro-rad, and angular rate precisions of 0.5 to 1.0 x 10(exp -12) rad/sec.

Deep-space navigation with differenced data types. Part 3: An expanded information content and sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estefan, J. A.; Thurman, S. W.

1992-01-01

An approximate six-parameter analytic model for Earth-based differenced range measurements is presented and is used to derive a representative analytic approximation for differenced Doppler measurements. The analytical models are tasked to investigate the ability of these data types to estimate spacecraft geocentric angular motion, Deep Space Network station oscillator (clock/frequency) offsets, and signal-path calibration errors over a period of a few days, in the presence of systematic station location and transmission media calibration errors. Quantitative results indicate that a few differenced Doppler plus ranging passes yield angular position estimates with a precision on the order of 0.1 to 0.4 microrad, and angular rate precision on the order of 10 to 25(10)(exp -12) rad/sec, assuming no a priori information on the coordinate parameters. Sensitivity analyses suggest that troposphere zenith delay calibration error is the dominant systematic error source in most of the tracking scenarios investigated; as expected, the differenced Doppler data were found to be much more sensitive to troposphere calibration errors than differenced range. By comparison, results computed using wide band and narrow band (delta)VLBI under similar circumstances yielded angular precisions of 0.07 to 0.4 /microrad, and angular rate precisions of 0.5 to 1.0(10)(exp -12) rad/sec.

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks

PubMed Central

Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Pantazis, Yannis

2015-01-01

Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in “sloppy” systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the number of the sensitive parameters. PMID:26161544

Application of Adjoint Methodology in Various Aspects of Sonic Boom Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rallabhandi, Sriram K.

2014-01-01

One of the advances in computational design has been the development of adjoint methods allowing efficient calculation of sensitivities in gradient-based shape optimization. This paper discusses two new applications of adjoint methodology that have been developed to aid in sonic boom mitigation exercises. In the first, equivalent area targets are generated using adjoint sensitivities of selected boom metrics. These targets may then be used to drive the vehicle shape during optimization. The second application is the computation of adjoint sensitivities of boom metrics on the ground with respect to parameters such as flight conditions, propagation sampling rate, and selected inputs to the propagation algorithms. These sensitivities enable the designer to make more informed selections of flight conditions at which the chosen cost functionals are less sensitive.

Cutoffs of Short-Term Heart Rate Variability Parameters in Brazilian Adolescents Male.

PubMed

Farah, Breno Quintella; Christofaro, Diego Giulliano Destro; Cavalcante, Bruno Remígio; Andrade-Lima, Aluísio; Germano-Soares, Antonio Henrique; Vanderlei, Luiz Carlos Marques; Lanza, Fernanda Cordoba; Ritti-Dias, Raphael Mendes

2018-05-15

A low heart rate variability (HRV) has been associated with cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents. However, no cut-off points are known for HRV parameters in this age group, making it difficult to use in clinical practice. Thus, the aims of the current study were to establish cutoffs of HRV parameters and to examine their association with cardiovascular risk in Brazilian adolescents male. For this reason, this cross-sectional study included 1152 adolescent boys (16.6 ± 1.2 years old). HRV measures of time (SD of all RR intervals, root mean square of the squared differences between adjacent normal RR intervals, and the percentage of adjacent intervals over 50 ms), frequency domains [low (LF) and high (HF) frequency], and Poincaré plot (SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2 ratio) were assessed. Cardiovascular risk was assessed by sum of abdominal obesity, high blood pressure, overweight, and low physical activity level. The proposed cutoffs showed moderate to high sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve values (p < 0.05). HRV frequency parameters were statistically superior when compared to time-domain and Poincaré plot parameters. The binary logistic regression analysis indicated that all proposed HRV cutoffs were independently associated with a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, with greater magnitude of HF and SD1/SD2 ratio (two or more risk factors: OR = 3.59 and 95% CI 1.76-7.34). In conclusion, proposed HRV cutoffs have moderate to high sensitivity in detecting of the cardiovascular risk factor and HRV frequency-domain were better discriminants of cardiovascular risk than time-domain and Poincaré plot parameters.

Multi-Response Parameter Interval Sensitivity and Optimization for the Composite Tape Winding Process.

PubMed

Deng, Bo; Shi, Yaoyao; Yu, Tao; Kang, Chao; Zhao, Pan

2018-01-31

The composite tape winding process, which utilizes a tape winding machine and prepreg tapes, provides a promising way to improve the quality of composite products. Nevertheless, the process parameters of composite tape winding have crucial effects on the tensile strength and void content, which are closely related to the performances of the winding products. In this article, two different object values of winding products, including mechanical performance (tensile strength) and a physical property (void content), were respectively calculated. Thereafter, the paper presents an integrated methodology by combining multi-parameter relative sensitivity analysis and single-parameter sensitivity analysis to obtain the optimal intervals of the composite tape winding process. First, the global multi-parameter sensitivity analysis method was applied to investigate the sensitivity of each parameter in the tape winding processing. Then, the local single-parameter sensitivity analysis method was employed to calculate the sensitivity of a single parameter within the corresponding range. Finally, the stability and instability ranges of each parameter were distinguished. Meanwhile, the authors optimized the process parameter ranges and provided comprehensive optimized intervals of the winding parameters. The verification test validated that the optimized intervals of the process parameters were reliable and stable for winding products manufacturing.

Multi-Response Parameter Interval Sensitivity and Optimization for the Composite Tape Winding Process

PubMed Central

Yu, Tao; Kang, Chao; Zhao, Pan

2018-01-01

The composite tape winding process, which utilizes a tape winding machine and prepreg tapes, provides a promising way to improve the quality of composite products. Nevertheless, the process parameters of composite tape winding have crucial effects on the tensile strength and void content, which are closely related to the performances of the winding products. In this article, two different object values of winding products, including mechanical performance (tensile strength) and a physical property (void content), were respectively calculated. Thereafter, the paper presents an integrated methodology by combining multi-parameter relative sensitivity analysis and single-parameter sensitivity analysis to obtain the optimal intervals of the composite tape winding process. First, the global multi-parameter sensitivity analysis method was applied to investigate the sensitivity of each parameter in the tape winding processing. Then, the local single-parameter sensitivity analysis method was employed to calculate the sensitivity of a single parameter within the corresponding range. Finally, the stability and instability ranges of each parameter were distinguished. Meanwhile, the authors optimized the process parameter ranges and provided comprehensive optimized intervals of the winding parameters. The verification test validated that the optimized intervals of the process parameters were reliable and stable for winding products manufacturing. PMID:29385048

Feasibility of high-resolution one-dimensional relaxation imaging at low magnetic field using a single-sided NMR scanner applied to articular cartilage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, Erik; Mattea, Carlos; Stapf, Siegfried

2015-02-01

Low field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance increases the contrast of the longitudinal relaxation rate in many biological tissues; one prominent example is hyaline articular cartilage. In order to take advantage of this increased contrast and to profile the depth-dependent variations, high resolution parameter measurements are carried out which can be of critical importance in an early diagnosis of cartilage diseases such as osteoarthritis. However, the maximum achievable spatial resolution of parameter profiles is limited by factors such as sensor geometry, sample curvature, and diffusion limitation. In this work, we report on high-resolution single-sided NMR scanner measurements with a commercial device, and quantify these limitations. The highest achievable spatial resolution on the used profiler, and the lateral dimension of the sensitive volume were determined. Since articular cartilage samples are usually bent, we also focus on averaging effects inside the horizontally aligned sensitive volume and their impact on the relaxation profiles. Taking these critical parameters into consideration, depth-dependent relaxation time profiles with the maximum achievable vertical resolution of 20 μm are discussed, and are correlated with diffusion coefficient profiles in hyaline articular cartilage in order to reconstruct T2 maps from the diffusion-weighted CPMG decays of apparent relaxation rates.

Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

PubMed Central

She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ 0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils. PMID:25197699

Predicted infiltration for sodic/saline soils from reclaimed coastal areas: sensitivity to model parameters.

PubMed

Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng; Chen, Dan

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm(3). A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ₀ was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

CEC-atmospheric pressure ionization MS of pesticides using a surfactant-bound monolithic column.

PubMed

Gu, Congying; Shamsi, Shahab A

2010-04-01

A surfactant bound poly (11-acrylaminoundecanoic acid-ethylene dimethacrylate) monolithic column was simply prepared by in situ co-polymerization of 11-acrylaminoundecanoic acid and ethylene dimethacrylate with 1-propanol, 1,4-butanediol and water as porogens in 100 microm id fused-silica capillary in one step. This column was used in CEC-atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI)-MS system for separation and detection of N-methylcarbamates pesticides. Numerous parameters are optimized for CEC-APPI-MS. After evaluation of the mobile phase composition, sheath liquid composition and the monolithic capillary outlet position, a fractional factorial design was selected as a screening procedure to identify factors of ionization source parameters, such as sheath liquid flow rate, drying gas flow rate, drying gas temperature, nebulizing gas pressure, vaporizer temperature and capillary voltage, which significantly influence APPI-MS sensitivity. A face-centered central composite design was further utilized to optimize the most significant parameters and predict the best sensitivity. Under optimized conditions, S/Ns around 78 were achieved for an injection of 100 ng/mL of each pesticide. Finally, this CEC-APPI-MS method was successfully applied to the analysis of nine N-methylcarbamates in spiked apple juice sample after solid phase extraction with recoveries in the range of 65-109%.

Breeding ecology of Horned Puffins (Fratercula corniculata) in Alaska: annual variation and effects of El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harding, A.M.A.; Piatt, John F.; Hamer, K.C.

2003-01-01

Both within and among seabird species, different aspects of breeding biology may respond to changes in prey availability in distinct ways, and the identification of species-specific breeding parameters that are sensitive to food availability is useful for monitoring purposes. We present data from a 5-year study (1995–1999) of the breeding ecology of Horned Puffins (Fratercula corniculata) in Alaska. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation event of 1997–1998 provided an opportunity to examine the sensitivity of various breeding parameters to a reduction in prey availability caused by the anomalous oceanographic conditions of 1998. Horned Puffins were able to maintain high fledging success (83–97%) over the 5 years of the study, despite the poor local feeding conditions in 1998. The rate of increase in chick mass was lowest in 1998, and evidence suggests that chicks also fledged at the youngest ages in that year. The impacts of reduced food availability on growth varied among body structures, suggesting differential allocation of energy and nutrients. There was no variation among years in either chick diet or the mass of food loads delivered by adults. We suggest that rates of chick growth, specifically mass increase, may be a good parameter to measure for use in monitoring Horned Puffins.

Phytoplankton competition and coexistence: Intrinsic ecosystem dynamics and impact of vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perruche, Coralie; Rivière, Pascal; Pondaven, Philippe; Carton, Xavier

2010-04-01

This paper aims at studying analytically the functioning of a very simple ecosystem model with two phytoplankton species. First, using the dynamical system theory, we determine its nonlinear equilibria, their stability and characteristic timescales with a focus on phytoplankton competition. Particular attention is paid to the model sensitivity to parameter change. Then, the influence of vertical mixing and sinking of detritus on the vertically-distributed ecosystem model is investigated. The analytical results reveal a high diversity of ecosystem structures with fixed points and limit cycles that are mainly sensitive to variations of light intensity and total amount of nitrogen matter. The sensitivity to other parameters such as re-mineralisation, growth and grazing rates is also specified. Besides, the equilibrium analysis shows a complete segregation of the two phytoplankton species in the whole parameter space. The embedding of our ecosystem model into a one-dimensional numerical model with diffusion turns out to allow coexistence between phytoplankton species, providing a possible solution to the 'paradox of plankton' in the sense that it prevents the competitive exclusion of one phytoplankton species. These results improve our knowledge of the factors that control the structure and functioning of plankton communities.

A Bayesian approach to modelling the impact of hydrodynamic shear stress on biofilm deformation

PubMed Central

Wilkinson, Darren J.; Jayathilake, Pahala Gedara; Rushton, Steve P.; Bridgens, Ben; Li, Bowen; Zuliani, Paolo

2018-01-01

We investigate the feasibility of using a surrogate-based method to emulate the deformation and detachment behaviour of a biofilm in response to hydrodynamic shear stress. The influence of shear force, growth rate and viscoelastic parameters on the patterns of growth, structure and resulting shape of microbial biofilms was examined. We develop a statistical modelling approach to this problem, using combination of Bayesian Poisson regression and dynamic linear models for the emulation. We observe that the hydrodynamic shear force affects biofilm deformation in line with some literature. Sensitivity results also showed that the expected number of shear events, shear flow, yield coefficient for heterotrophic bacteria and extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) stiffness per unit EPS mass are the four principal mechanisms governing the bacteria detachment in this study. The sensitivity of the model parameters is temporally dynamic, emphasising the significance of conducting the sensitivity analysis across multiple time points. The surrogate models are shown to perform well, and produced ≈ 480 fold increase in computational efficiency. We conclude that a surrogate-based approach is effective, and resulting biofilm structure is determined primarily by a balance between bacteria growth, viscoelastic parameters and applied shear stress. PMID:29649240

Treated wastewater phytotoxicity assessment using Lactuca sativa: Focus on germination and root elongation test parameters.

PubMed

Priac, Anne; Badot, Pierre-Marie; Crini, Grégorio

2017-03-01

Sensitive and simple ecotoxicological bioassays like seed germination and root elongation tests are commonly used to evaluate the phytotoxicity of waste and industrial discharge waters. Although the tests are performed following national and international standards, various parameters such as the number of seeds per dish, the test duration or the type of support used remain variable. To be able to make a correct comparison of results from different studies, it is crucial to know which parameter(s) could affect ecotoxicological diagnosis. We tested four different control waters and three seed densities. No significant differences on either germination rate or root elongation endpoints were shown. Nevertheless, we found that the four lettuce cultivars (Appia, batavia dorée de printemps, grosse blonde paresseuse, and Kinemontepas) showed significantly different responses when watered with the same and different metal-loaded industrial discharge water. From the comparison, it is clear that a differential sensitivity scale occurs among not just species but cultivars. Copyright © 2017 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A semi-phenomenological model to predict the acoustic behavior of fully and partially reticulated polyurethane foams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doutres, Olivier; Atalla, Noureddine; Dong, Kevin

2013-02-01

This paper proposes simple semi-phenomenological models to predict the sound absorption efficiency of highly porous polyurethane foams from microstructure characterization. In a previous paper [J. Appl. Phys. 110, 064901 (2011)], the authors presented a 3-parameter semi-phenomenological model linking the microstructure properties of fully and partially reticulated isotropic polyurethane foams (i.e., strut length l, strut thickness t, and reticulation rate Rw) to the macroscopic non-acoustic parameters involved in the classical Johnson-Champoux-Allard model (i.e., porosity ϕ, airflow resistivity σ, tortuosity α∝, viscous Λ, and thermal Λ' characteristic lengths). The model was based on existing scaling laws, validated for fully reticulated polyurethane foams, and improved using both geometrical and empirical approaches to account for the presence of membrane closing the pores. This 3-parameter model is applied to six polyurethane foams in this paper and is found highly sensitive to the microstructure characterization; particularly to strut's dimensions. A simplified micro-/macro model is then presented. It is based on the cell size Cs and reticulation rate Rw only, assuming that the geometric ratio between strut length l and strut thickness t is known. This simplified model, called the 2-parameter model, considerably simplifies the microstructure characterization procedure. A comparison of the two proposed semi-phenomenological models is presented using six polyurethane foams being either fully or partially reticulated, isotropic or anisotropic. It is shown that the 2-parameter model is less sensitive to measurement uncertainties compared to the original model and allows a better estimation of polyurethane foams sound absorption behavior.

Theoretical foundations for finite-time transient stability and sensitivity analysis of power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, Sambarta

Transient stability and sensitivity analysis of power systems are problems of enormous academic and practical interest. These classical problems have received renewed interest, because of the advancement in sensor technology in the form of phasor measurement units (PMUs). The advancement in sensor technology has provided unique opportunity for the development of real-time stability monitoring and sensitivity analysis tools. Transient stability problem in power system is inherently a problem of stability analysis of the non-equilibrium dynamics, because for a short time period following a fault or disturbance the system trajectory moves away from the equilibrium point. The real-time stability decision has to be made over this short time period. However, the existing stability definitions and hence analysis tools for transient stability are asymptotic in nature. In this thesis, we discover theoretical foundations for the short-term transient stability analysis of power systems, based on the theory of normally hyperbolic invariant manifolds and finite time Lyapunov exponents, adopted from geometric theory of dynamical systems. The theory of normally hyperbolic surfaces allows us to characterize the rate of expansion and contraction of co-dimension one material surfaces in the phase space. The expansion and contraction rates of these material surfaces can be computed in finite time. We prove that the expansion and contraction rates can be used as finite time transient stability certificates. Furthermore, material surfaces with maximum expansion and contraction rate are identified with the stability boundaries. These stability boundaries are used for computation of stability margin. We have used the theoretical framework for the development of model-based and model-free real-time stability monitoring methods. Both the model-based and model-free approaches rely on the availability of high resolution time series data from the PMUs for stability prediction. The problem of sensitivity analysis of power system, subjected to changes or uncertainty in load parameters and network topology, is also studied using the theory of normally hyperbolic manifolds. The sensitivity analysis is used for the identification and rank ordering of the critical interactions and parameters in the power network. The sensitivity analysis is carried out both in finite time and in asymptotic. One of the distinguishing features of the asymptotic sensitivity analysis is that the asymptotic dynamics of the system is assumed to be a periodic orbit. For asymptotic sensitivity analysis we employ combination of tools from ergodic theory and geometric theory of dynamical systems.

Component and System Sensitivity Considerations for Design of a Lunar ISRU Oxygen Production Plant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linne, Diane L.; Gokoglu, Suleyman; Hegde, Uday G.; Balasubramaniam, Ramaswamy; Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo

2009-01-01

Component and system sensitivities of some design parameters of ISRU system components are analyzed. The differences between terrestrial and lunar excavation are discussed, and a qualitative comparison of large and small excavators is started. The effect of excavator size on the size of the ISRU plant's regolith hoppers is presented. Optimum operating conditions of both hydrogen and carbothermal reduction reactors are explored using recently developed analytical models. Design parameters such as batch size, conversion fraction, and maximum particle size are considered for a hydrogen reduction reactor while batch size, conversion fraction, number of melt zones, and methane flow rate are considered for a carbothermal reduction reactor. For both reactor types the effect of reactor operation on system energy and regolith delivery requirements is presented.

Automated Processing of Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI: Correlation of Advanced Pharmacokinetic Metrics with Tumor Grade in Pediatric Brain Tumors.

PubMed

Vajapeyam, S; Stamoulis, C; Ricci, K; Kieran, M; Poussaint, T Young

2017-01-01

Pharmacokinetic parameters from dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging have proved useful for differentiating brain tumor grades in adults. In this study, we retrospectively reviewed dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion data from children with newly diagnosed brain tumors and analyzed the pharmacokinetic parameters correlating with tumor grade. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging data from 38 patients were analyzed by using commercially available software. Subjects were categorized into 2 groups based on pathologic analyses consisting of low-grade (World Health Organization I and II) and high-grade (World Health Organization III and IV) tumors. Pharmacokinetic parameters were compared between the 2 groups by using linear regression models. For parameters that were statistically distinct between the 2 groups, sensitivity and specificity were also estimated. Eighteen tumors were classified as low-grade, and 20, as high-grade. Transfer constant from the blood plasma into the extracellular extravascular space (K trans ), rate constant from extracellular extravascular space back into blood plasma (K ep ), and extracellular extravascular volume fraction (V e ) were all significantly correlated with tumor grade; high-grade tumors showed higher K trans , higher K ep , and lower V e . Although all 3 parameters had high specificity (range, 82%-100%), K ep had the highest specificity for both grades. Optimal sensitivity was achieved for V e , with a combined sensitivity of 76% (compared with 71% for K trans and K ep ). Pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging can effectively discriminate low- and high-grade pediatric brain tumors. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Influence of geomagnetic activity and earth weather changes on heart rate and blood pressure in young and healthy population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozheredov, V. A.; Chibisov, S. M.; Blagonravov, M. L.; Khodorovich, N. A.; Demurov, E. A.; Goryachev, V. A.; Kharlitskaya, E. V.; Eremina, I. S.; Meladze, Z. A.

2017-05-01

There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

Relationship between human physiological parameters and geomagnetic variations of solar origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrova, S.

Results presented concern influence of increased geomagnetic activity on some human physiological parameters. The blood pressure and heart rate of 86 volunteers were measured on working days in autumn 2001 (01/10 09/11) and in spring 2002 (08/04 28/05). These periods were chosen because of maximal expected geomagnetic activity. Altogether 2799 recordings were obtained and analysed. Questionnaire information about subjective psycho-physiological complaints was also gathered. MANOVA was employed to check the significance of the influence of three factors on the physiological parameters under consideration. The factors were the following: (1) planetary geomagnetic activity level estimated by Ap-index and divided into five levels; (2) gender males and females; (3) blood pressure degree persons in the group examined were divided into hypotensive, normotensive and hypertensive. Post hoc analysis was performed to elicit the significance of differences in the factors’ levels. The average arterial blood pressure of the group was found to increase significantly with the increase of geomagnetic activity level. The average increment of systolic and diastolic blood pressure of the group examined reached 9%. This effect was present irrespectively of gender. Results obtained suppose that hypertensive persons have the highest sensitivity and the hypotensive persons have the lowest sensitivity of the arterial blood pressure to increase of geomagnetic activity. The results did not show significant changes in the heart rate. The percentage of the persons who reported subjective psycho-physiological complaints was also found to increase significantly with the geomagnetic activity increase and the highest sensitivity was revealed for the hypertensive females.

Influence of geomagnetic activity and earth weather changes on heart rate and blood pressure in young and healthy population.

PubMed

Ozheredov, V A; Chibisov, S M; Blagonravov, M L; Khodorovich, N A; Demurov, E A; Goryachev, V A; Kharlitskaya, E V; Eremina, I S; Meladze, Z A

2017-05-01

There are many references in the literature related to connection between the space weather and the state of human organism. The search of external factors influence on humans is a multi-factor problem and it is well known that humans have a meteo-sensitivity. A direct problem of finding the earth weather conditions, under which the space weather manifests itself most strongly, is discussed in the present work for the first time in the helio-biology. From a formal point of view, this problem requires identification of subset (magnetobiotropic region) in three-dimensional earth's weather parameters such as pressure, temperature, and humidity, corresponding to the days when the human body is the most sensitive to changes in the geomagnetic field variations and when it reacts by statistically significant increase (or decrease) of a particular physiological parameter. This formulation defines the optimization of the problem, and the solution of the latter is not possible without the involvement of powerful metaheuristic methods of searching. Using the algorithm of differential evolution, we prove the existence of magnetobiotropic regions in the earth's weather parameters, which exhibit magneto-sensitivity of systolic, diastolic blood pressure, and heart rate of healthy young subjects for three weather areas (combinations of atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity). The maximum value of the correlation confidence for the measurements attributable to the days of the weather conditions that fall into each of three magnetobiotropic areas is an order of 0.006, that is almost 10 times less than the confidence, equal to 0.05, accepted in many helio-biological researches.

Emission rate modeling and risk assessment at an automobile plant from painting operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, A.; Shrivastava, A.; Kulkarni, A.

Pollution from automobile plants from painting operations has been addressed in the Clean Act Amendments (1990). The estimation of pollutant emissions from automobile painting operation were done mostly by approximate procedures than by actual calculations. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for calculating the emissions of the pollutants from painting operation in an automobile plant. Five scenarios involving an automobile painting operation, located in Columbus (Ohio), were studied for pollutant emission and concomitant risk associated with that. In the study of risk, a sensitivity analysis was done using Crystal Ball{reg{underscore}sign} on the parameters involved in risk.more » This software uses the Monte Carlo principle. The most sensitive factor in the risk analysis was the ground level concentration of the pollutants. All scenarios studied met the safety goal (a risk value of 1 x 10{sup {minus}6}) with different confidence levels. The highest level of confidence in meeting the safety goal was displayed by Scenario 1 (Alpha Industries). The results from the scenarios suggest that risk is associated with the quantity of released toxic pollutants. The sensitivity analysis of the various parameter shows that average spray rate of paint is the most important parameter in the estimation of pollutants from the painting operations. The entire study is a complete module that can be used by the environmental pollution control agencies for estimation of pollution levels and estimation of associated risk. The study can be further extended to other operations in an automobile industry or to different industries.« less

Endurance training attenuates the increase in peripheral chemoreflex sensitivity with intermittent hypoxia

PubMed Central

Miller, Amanda J.; Sauder, Charity L.; Cauffman, Aimee E.; Blaha, Cheryl A.

2017-01-01

Patients with heart failure and sleep apnea have greater chemoreflex sensitivity, presumably due to intermittent hypoxia (IH), and this is predictive of mortality. We hypothesized that endurance training would attenuate the effect of IH on peripheral chemoreflex sensitivity in healthy humans. Fifteen young healthy subjects (9 female, 26 ± 1 yr) participated. Between visits, 11 subjects underwent 8 wk of endurance training that included running four times/wk at 80% predicted maximum heart rate and interval training, and four control subjects did not change activity. Chemoreflex sensitivity (the slope of ventilation responses to serial oxygen desaturations), blood pressure, heart rate, and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) were assessed before and after 30 min of IH. Endurance training decreased resting systolic blood pressure (119 ± 3 to 113 ± 3 mmHg; P = 0.027) and heart rate (67 ± 3 to 61 ± 2 beats/min; P = 0.004) but did not alter respiratory parameters at rest (P > 0.2). Endurance training attenuated the IH-induced increase in chemoreflex sensitivity (pretraining: Δ 0.045 ± 0.026 vs. posttraining: Δ −0.028 ± 0.040 l·min−1·% O2 desaturation−1; P = 0.045). Furthermore, IH increased mean blood pressure and MSNA burst rate before training (P < 0.05), but IH did not alter these measures after training (P > 0.2). All measurements were similar in the control subjects at both visits (P > 0.05). Endurance training attenuates chemoreflex sensitization to IH, which may partially explain the beneficial effects of exercise training in patients with cardiovascular disease. PMID:28039190

Evaluating trade-offs in bull trout reintroduction strategies using structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brignon, William R.; Peterson, James T.; Dunham, Jason B.; Schaller, Howard A.; Schreck, Carl B.

2018-01-01

Structured decision making allows reintroduction decisions to be made despite uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. We developed a decision model to evaluate the trade-offs between six bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) reintroduction decisions with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable level. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the decision identity and outcome were most influenced by survival parameters that result in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations, adult fecundity rates, and sex ratio. The decision was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive-reared population, the effect of naivety on released individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. The model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions.

Modeling the atmospheric chemistry of TICs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, Michael V.; Burns, Douglas S.; Chynwat, Veeradej; Moore, William; Plitz, Angela; Rottmann, Shawn; Hearn, John

2009-05-01

An atmospheric chemistry model that describes the behavior and disposition of environmentally hazardous compounds discharged into the atmosphere was coupled with the transport and diffusion model, SCIPUFF. The atmospheric chemistry model was developed by reducing a detailed atmospheric chemistry mechanism to a simple empirical effective degradation rate term (keff) that is a function of important meteorological parameters such as solar flux, temperature, and cloud cover. Empirically derived keff functions that describe the degradation of target toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) were derived by statistically analyzing data generated from the detailed chemistry mechanism run over a wide range of (typical) atmospheric conditions. To assess and identify areas to improve the developed atmospheric chemistry model, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to (1) quantify the sensitivity of the model output (TIC concentrations) with respect to changes in the input parameters and (2) improve, where necessary, the quality of the input data based on sensitivity results. The model predictions were evaluated against experimental data. Chamber data were used to remove the complexities of dispersion in the atmosphere.

Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xin; Wang, HuaNing; Dai, XingHua

2012-10-01

The mispredictive costs of flaring and non-flaring samples are different for different applications of solar flare prediction. Hence, solar flare prediction is considered a cost sensitive problem. A cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is built by modifying the basic decision tree algorithm. Inconsistency rate with the exhaustive search strategy is used to determine the optimal combination of magnetic field parameters in an active region. These selected parameters are applied as the inputs of the solar flare prediction model. The performance of the cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is evaluated for the different thresholds of solar flares. It is found that more flaring samples are correctly predicted and more non-flaring samples are wrongly predicted with the increase of the cost for wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples, and the larger cost of wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples is required for the higher threshold of solar flares. This can be considered as the guide line for choosing proper cost to meet the requirements in different applications.

Kernel machines for epilepsy diagnosis via EEG signal classification: a comparative study.

PubMed

Lima, Clodoaldo A M; Coelho, André L V

2011-10-01

We carry out a systematic assessment on a suite of kernel-based learning machines while coping with the task of epilepsy diagnosis through automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) signal classification. The kernel machines investigated include the standard support vector machine (SVM), the least squares SVM, the Lagrangian SVM, the smooth SVM, the proximal SVM, and the relevance vector machine. An extensive series of experiments was conducted on publicly available data, whose clinical EEG recordings were obtained from five normal subjects and five epileptic patients. The performance levels delivered by the different kernel machines are contrasted in terms of the criteria of predictive accuracy, sensitivity to the kernel function/parameter value, and sensitivity to the type of features extracted from the signal. For this purpose, 26 values for the kernel parameter (radius) of two well-known kernel functions (namely, Gaussian and exponential radial basis functions) were considered as well as 21 types of features extracted from the EEG signal, including statistical values derived from the discrete wavelet transform, Lyapunov exponents, and combinations thereof. We first quantitatively assess the impact of the choice of the wavelet basis on the quality of the features extracted. Four wavelet basis functions were considered in this study. Then, we provide the average accuracy (i.e., cross-validation error) values delivered by 252 kernel machine configurations; in particular, 40%/35% of the best-calibrated models of the standard and least squares SVMs reached 100% accuracy rate for the two kernel functions considered. Moreover, we show the sensitivity profiles exhibited by a large sample of the configurations whereby one can visually inspect their levels of sensitiveness to the type of feature and to the kernel function/parameter value. Overall, the results evidence that all kernel machines are competitive in terms of accuracy, with the standard and least squares SVMs prevailing more consistently. Moreover, the choice of the kernel function and parameter value as well as the choice of the feature extractor are critical decisions to be taken, albeit the choice of the wavelet family seems not to be so relevant. Also, the statistical values calculated over the Lyapunov exponents were good sources of signal representation, but not as informative as their wavelet counterparts. Finally, a typical sensitivity profile has emerged among all types of machines, involving some regions of stability separated by zones of sharp variation, with some kernel parameter values clearly associated with better accuracy rates (zones of optimality). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampled-Data Techniques Applied to a Digital Controller for an Altitude Autopilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Stanley F.; Harper, Eleanor V.

1959-01-01

Sampled-data theory, using the Z transformation, is applied to the design of a digital controller for an aircraft-altitude autopilot. Particular attention is focused on the sensitivity of the design to parameter variations and the abruptness of the response, that is, the normal acceleration required to carry out a transient maneuver. Consideration of these two characteristics of the system has shown that the finite settling time design method produces an unacceptable system, primarily because of the high sensitivity of the response to parameter variations, although abruptness can be controlled by increasing the sampling period. Also demonstrated is the importance of having well-damped poles or zeros if cancellation is attempted in the design methods. A different method of smoothing the response and obtaining a design which is not excessively sensitive is proposed, and examples are carried through to demonstrate the validity of the procedure. This method is based on design concepts of continuous systems, and it is shown that if no pole-zero cancellations are allowed in the design, one can obtain a response which is not too abrupt, is relatively insensitive to parameter variations, and is not sensitive to practical limits on control-surface rate. This particular design also has the simplest possible pulse transfer function for the digital controller. Simulation techniques and root loci are used for the verification of the design philosophy.

Rate-equation modelling and ensemble approach to extraction of parameters for viral infection-induced cell apoptosis and necrosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domanskyi, Sergii; Schilling, Joshua E.; Privman, Vladimir, E-mail: privman@clarkson.edu

We develop a theoretical approach that uses physiochemical kinetics modelling to describe cell population dynamics upon progression of viral infection in cell culture, which results in cell apoptosis (programmed cell death) and necrosis (direct cell death). Several model parameters necessary for computer simulation were determined by reviewing and analyzing available published experimental data. By comparing experimental data to computer modelling results, we identify the parameters that are the most sensitive to the measured system properties and allow for the best data fitting. Our model allows extraction of parameters from experimental data and also has predictive power. Using the model wemore » describe interesting time-dependent quantities that were not directly measured in the experiment and identify correlations among the fitted parameter values. Numerical simulation of viral infection progression is done by a rate-equation approach resulting in a system of “stiff” equations, which are solved by using a novel variant of the stochastic ensemble modelling approach. The latter was originally developed for coupled chemical reactions.« less

Model parameter estimation approach based on incremental analysis for lithium-ion batteries without using open circuit voltage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hongjie; Yuan, Shifei; Zhang, Xi; Yin, Chengliang; Ma, Xuerui

2015-08-01

To improve the suitability of lithium-ion battery model under varying scenarios, such as fluctuating temperature and SoC variation, dynamic model with parameters updated realtime should be developed. In this paper, an incremental analysis-based auto regressive exogenous (I-ARX) modeling method is proposed to eliminate the modeling error caused by the OCV effect and improve the accuracy of parameter estimation. Then, its numerical stability, modeling error, and parametric sensitivity are analyzed at different sampling rates (0.02, 0.1, 0.5 and 1 s). To identify the model parameters recursively, a bias-correction recursive least squares (CRLS) algorithm is applied. Finally, the pseudo random binary sequence (PRBS) and urban dynamic driving sequences (UDDSs) profiles are performed to verify the realtime performance and robustness of the newly proposed model and algorithm. Different sampling rates (1 Hz and 10 Hz) and multiple temperature points (5, 25, and 45 °C) are covered in our experiments. The experimental and simulation results indicate that the proposed I-ARX model can present high accuracy and suitability for parameter identification without using open circuit voltage.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Nerium oleander indirect leaf photosynthesis and light harvesting reductions after clipping injury or Spodoptera eridania herbivory: High sensitivity to injury

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Variable indirect photosynthetic rate (Pn) responses occur on injured leaves after insect herbivory. It is important to understand factors that influence indirect Pn reductions after injury. The current study examines the relationship between gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters wi...

Effect of moderate magnetic annealing on the microstructure, quasi-static and viscoelastic mechanical behavior of a structural epoxy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tehrani, Mehran; Al-Haik, Marwan; Garmestani, Hamid

2012-01-01

In this study the effect of moderate magnetic fields on the microstructure of a structural epoxy system was investigated. The changes in the microstructure have been quantitatively investigated using wide angle x-ray diffraction (WAXD) and pole figure analysis. The mechanical properties (modulus, hardness and strain rate sensitivity parameter) of the epoxy system annealed in the magnetic field were probed with the aid of instrumented nanoindentation and the results are compared to the reference epoxy sample. To further examine the creep response of the magnetically annealed and reference samples, short 45 min duration creep tests were carried out. An equivalent tomore » the macro scale creep compliance was calculated using the aforementioned nano-creep data. Using the continuous complex compliance (CCC) analysis, the phase lag angle, tan (δ), between the displacement and applied force in an oscillatory nanoindentation test was measured for both neat and magnetically annealed systems through which the effect of low magnetic fields on the viscoelastic properties of the epoxy was invoked. The comparison of the creep strain rate sensitivity parameter , A/d(0), from short term(80 ), creep tests and the creep compliance J(t) from the long term(2700 s) creep tests with the tan(δ) suggests that former parameter is a more useful comparative creep parameter than the creep compliance. The results of this investigation reveal that under low magnetic fields both the quasi-static and viscoelastic mechanical properties of the epoxy have been improved.« less

Predicting temperature drop rate of mass concrete during an initial cooling period using genetic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattarai, Santosh; Zhou, Yihong; Zhao, Chunju; Zhou, Huawei

2018-02-01

Thermal cracking on concrete dams depends upon the rate at which the concrete is cooled (temperature drop rate per day) within an initial cooling period during the construction phase. Thus, in order to control the thermal cracking of such structure, temperature development due to heat of hydration of cement should be dropped at suitable rate. In this study, an attempt have been made to formulate the relation between cooling rate of mass concrete with passage of time (age of concrete) and water cooling parameters: flow rate and inlet temperature of cooling water. Data measured at summer season (April-August from 2009 to 2012) from recently constructed high concrete dam were used to derive a prediction model with the help of Genetic Programming (GP) software “Eureqa”. Coefficient of Determination (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The value of R and MSE is 0.8855 and 0.002961 respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative impact on the target parameter due to input parameters. Further, testing the proposed model with an independent dataset those not included during analysis, results obtained from the proposed GP model are close enough to the real field data.

Quantum thermostatted disordered systems and sensitivity under compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanzan, Tommaso; Rondoni, Lamberto

2018-03-01

A one-dimensional quantum system with off diagonal disorder, consisting of a sample of conducting regions randomly interspersed within potential barriers is considered. Results mainly concerning the large N limit are presented. In particular, the effect of compression on the transmission coefficient is investigated. A numerical method to simulate such a system, for a physically relevant number of barriers, is proposed. It is shown that the disordered model converges to the periodic case as N increases, with a rate of convergence which depends on the disorder degree. Compression always leads to a decrease of the transmission coefficient which may be exploited to design nano-technological sensors. Effective choices for the physical parameters to improve the sensitivity are provided. Eventually large fluctuations and rate functions are analysed.

Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

2017-03-01

The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-01-01

The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

Geothermal reservoir simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer system using FEFLOW®

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Hidayat, Hardi; Gala Permana, Maximillian

2017-12-01

The study presents the simulation of hot sedimentary aquifer for geothermal utilization. Hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) is a conduction-dominated hydrothermal play type utilizing deep aquifer, which is heated by near normal heat flow. One of the examples of HSA is Bavarian Molasse Basin in South Germany. This system typically uses doublet wells: an injection and production well. The simulation was run for 3650 days of simulation time. The technical feasibility and performance are analysed in regards to the extracted energy from this concept. Several parameters are compared to determine the model performance. Parameters such as reservoir characteristics, temperature information and well information are defined. Several assumptions are also defined to simplify the simulation process. The main results of the simulation are heat period budget or total extracted heat energy, and heat rate budget or heat production rate. Qualitative approaches for sensitivity analysis are conducted by using five parameters in which assigned lower and higher value scenarios.

Effects of correlated parameters and uncertainty in electronic-structure-based chemical kinetic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, Jonathan E.; Guo, Wei; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Vlachos, Dionisios G.

2016-04-01

Kinetic models based on first principles are becoming common place in heterogeneous catalysis because of their ability to interpret experimental data, identify the rate-controlling step, guide experiments and predict novel materials. To overcome the tremendous computational cost of estimating parameters of complex networks on metal catalysts, approximate quantum mechanical calculations are employed that render models potentially inaccurate. Here, by introducing correlative global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification, we show that neglecting correlations in the energies of species and reactions can lead to an incorrect identification of influential parameters and key reaction intermediates and reactions. We rationalize why models often underpredict reaction rates and show that, despite the uncertainty being large, the method can, in conjunction with experimental data, identify influential missing reaction pathways and provide insights into the catalyst active site and the kinetic reliability of a model. The method is demonstrated in ethanol steam reforming for hydrogen production for fuel cells.

Modeling of copper sorption onto GFH and design of full-scale GFH adsorbers.

PubMed

Steiner, Michele; Pronk, Wouter; Boller, Markus A

2006-03-01

During rain events, copper wash-off occurring from copper roofs results in environmental hazards. In this study, columns filled with granulated ferric hydroxide (GFH) were used to treat copper-containing roof runoff. It was shown that copper could be removed to a high extent. A model was developed to describe this removal process. The model was based on the Two Region Model (TRM), extended with an additional diffusion zone. The extended model was able to describe the copper removal in long-term experiments (up to 125 days) with variable flow rates reflecting realistic runoff events. The four parameters of the model were estimated based on data gained with specific column experiments according to maximum sensitivity for each parameter. After model validation, the parameter set was used for the design of full-scale adsorbers. These full-scale adsorbers show high removal rates during extended periods of time.

Financial gains and risks in pay-for-performance bonus algorithms.

PubMed

Cromwell, Jerry; Drozd, Edward M; Smith, Kevin; Trisolini, Michael

2007-01-01

Considerable attention has been given to evidence-based process indicators associated with quality of care, while much less attention has been given to the structure and key parameters of the various pay-for-performance (P4P) bonus and penalty arrangements using such measures. In this article we develop a general model of quality payment arrangements and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the key parameters. We then conduct simulation analyses of four general P4P payment algorithms by varying seven parameters, including indicator weights, indicator intercorrelation, degree of uncertainty regarding intervention effectiveness, and initial baseline rates. Bonuses averaged over several indicators appear insensitive to weighting, correlation, and the number of indicators. The bonuses are sensitive to disease manager perceptions of intervention effectiveness, facing challenging targets, and the use of actual-to-target quality levels versus rates of improvement over baseline.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duffell, Paul C.; MacFadyen, Andrew I.; Farris, Brian D.

Most standard descriptions of Type II migration state that massive, gap-opening planets must migrate at the viscous drift rate. This is based on the idea that the disk is separated into an inner and outer region and gas is considered unable to cross the gap. In fact, gas easily crosses the gap on horseshoe orbits, nullifying this necessary premise which would set the migration rate. In this work, it is demonstrated using highly accurate numerical calculations that the actual migration rate is dependent on disk and planet parameters, and can be significantly larger or smaller than the viscous drift rate. Inmore » the limiting case of a disk much more massive than the secondary, the migration rate saturates to a constant that is sensitive to disk parameters and is not necessarily of the order of the viscous rate. In the opposite limit of a low-mass disk, the migration rate decreases linearly with disk mass. Steady-state solutions in the low disk mass limit show no pile-up outside the secondary's orbit, and no corresponding drainage of the inner disk.« less

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for Abreu & Johnson numerical vapor intrusion model.

PubMed

Ma, Jie; Yan, Guangxu; Li, Haiyan; Guo, Shaohui

2016-03-05

This study conducted one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a numerical vapor intrusion model for nine input parameters, including soil porosity, soil moisture, soil air permeability, aerobic biodegradation rate, building depressurization, crack width, floor thickness, building volume, and indoor air exchange rate. Simulations were performed for three soil types (clay, silt, and sand), two source depths (3 and 8m), and two source concentrations (1 and 400 g/m(3)). Model sensitivity and uncertainty for shallow and high-concentration vapor sources (3m and 400 g/m(3)) are much smaller than for deep and low-concentration sources (8m and 1g/m(3)). For high-concentration sources, soil air permeability, indoor air exchange rate, and building depressurization (for high permeable soil like sand) are key contributors to model output uncertainty. For low-concentration sources, soil porosity, soil moisture, aerobic biodegradation rate and soil gas permeability are key contributors to model output uncertainty. Another important finding is that impacts of aerobic biodegradation on vapor intrusion potential of petroleum hydrocarbons are negligible when vapor source concentration is high, because of insufficient oxygen supply that limits aerobic biodegradation activities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of spectral vegetation indices using a statistical sensitivity function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Peters, Albert J.

2007-01-01

A great number of spectral vegetation indices (VIs) have been developed to estimate biophysical parameters of vegetation. Traditional techniques for evaluating the performance of VIs are regression-based statistics, such as the coefficient of determination and root mean square error. These statistics, however, are not capable of quantifying the detailed relationship between VIs and biophysical parameters because the sensitivity of a VI is usually a function of the biophysical parameter instead of a constant. To better quantify this relationship, we developed a “sensitivity function” for measuring the sensitivity of a VI to biophysical parameters. The sensitivity function is defined as the first derivative of the regression function, divided by the standard error of the dependent variable prediction. The function elucidates the change in sensitivity over the range of the biophysical parameter. The Student's t- or z-statistic can be used to test the significance of VI sensitivity. Additionally, we developed a “relative sensitivity function” that compares the sensitivities of two VIs when the biophysical parameters are unavailable.

Parameter screening: the use of a dummy parameter to identify non-influential parameters in a global sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

2017-04-01

Parameter estimation is a major concern in hydrological modeling, which may limit the use of complex simulators with a large number of parameters. To support the selection of parameters to include in or exclude from the calibration process, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is widely applied in modeling practices. Based on the results of GSA, the influential and the non-influential parameters are identified (i.e. parameters screening). Nevertheless, the choice of the screening threshold below which parameters are considered non-influential is a critical issue, which has recently received more attention in GSA literature. In theory, the sensitivity index of a non-influential parameter has a value of zero. However, since numerical approximations, rather than analytical solutions, are utilized in GSA methods to calculate the sensitivity indices, small but non-zero indices may be obtained for the indices of non-influential parameters. In order to assess the threshold that identifies non-influential parameters in GSA methods, we propose to calculate the sensitivity index of a "dummy parameter". This dummy parameter has no influence on the model output, but will have a non-zero sensitivity index, representing the error due to the numerical approximation. Hence, the parameters whose indices are above the sensitivity index of the dummy parameter can be classified as influential, whereas the parameters whose indices are below this index are within the range of the numerical error and should be considered as non-influential. To demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed "dummy parameter approach", 26 parameters of a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are selected to be analyzed and screened, using the variance-based Sobol' and moment-independent PAWN methods. The sensitivity index of the dummy parameter is calculated from sampled data, without changing the model equations. Moreover, the calculation does not even require additional model evaluations for the Sobol' method. A formal statistical test validates these parameter screening results. Based on the dummy parameter screening, 11 model parameters are identified as influential. Therefore, it can be denoted that the "dummy parameter approach" can facilitate the parameter screening process and provide guidance for GSA users to define a screening-threshold, with only limited additional resources. Key words: Parameter screening, Global sensitivity analysis, Dummy parameter, Variance-based method, Moment-independent method

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Olson, Lucretia E; Blumstein, Daniel T; Armitage, Kenneth B

2007-11-01

Spatiotemporal variation in reproductive rates is a common phenomenon in many wildlife populations, but the population dynamic consequences of spatial and temporal variability in different components of reproduction remain poorly understood. We used 43 years (1962-2004) of data from 17 locations and a capture-mark-recapture (CMR) modeling framework to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive parameters of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), and its influence on the realized population growth rate. Specifically, we estimated and modeled breeding probabilities of two-year-old females (earliest age of first reproduction), >2-year-old females that have not reproduced before (subadults), and >2-year-old females that have reproduced before (adults), as well as the litter sizes of two-year old and >2-year-old females. Most reproductive parameters exhibited spatial and/or temporal variation. However, reproductive parameters differed with respect to their relative influence on the realized population growth rate (lambda). Litter size had a stronger influence than did breeding probabilities on both spatial and temporal variations in lambda. Our analysis indicated that lambda was proportionately more sensitive to survival than recruitment. However, the annual fluctuation in litter size, abetted by the breeding probabilities, accounted for most of the temporal variation in lambda.

Dynamic sensitivity analysis of biological systems

PubMed Central

Wu, Wu Hsiung; Wang, Feng Sheng; Chang, Maw Shang

2008-01-01

Background A mathematical model to understand, predict, control, or even design a real biological system is a central theme in systems biology. A dynamic biological system is always modeled as a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) system. How to simulate the dynamic behavior and dynamic parameter sensitivities of systems described by ODEs efficiently and accurately is a critical job. In many practical applications, e.g., the fed-batch fermentation systems, the system admissible input (corresponding to independent variables of the system) can be time-dependent. The main difficulty for investigating the dynamic log gains of these systems is the infinite dimension due to the time-dependent input. The classical dynamic sensitivity analysis does not take into account this case for the dynamic log gains. Results We present an algorithm with an adaptive step size control that can be used for computing the solution and dynamic sensitivities of an autonomous ODE system simultaneously. Although our algorithm is one of the decouple direct methods in computing dynamic sensitivities of an ODE system, the step size determined by model equations can be used on the computations of the time profile and dynamic sensitivities with moderate accuracy even when sensitivity equations are more stiff than model equations. To show this algorithm can perform the dynamic sensitivity analysis on very stiff ODE systems with moderate accuracy, it is implemented and applied to two sets of chemical reactions: pyrolysis of ethane and oxidation of formaldehyde. The accuracy of this algorithm is demonstrated by comparing the dynamic parameter sensitivities obtained from this new algorithm and from the direct method with Rosenbrock stiff integrator based on the indirect method. The same dynamic sensitivity analysis was performed on an ethanol fed-batch fermentation system with a time-varying feed rate to evaluate the applicability of the algorithm to realistic models with time-dependent admissible input. Conclusion By combining the accuracy we show with the efficiency of being a decouple direct method, our algorithm is an excellent method for computing dynamic parameter sensitivities in stiff problems. We extend the scope of classical dynamic sensitivity analysis to the investigation of dynamic log gains of models with time-dependent admissible input. PMID:19091016

Throughput and latency programmable optical transceiver by using DSP and FEC control.

PubMed

Tanimura, Takahito; Hoshida, Takeshi; Kato, Tomoyuki; Watanabe, Shigeki; Suzuki, Makoto; Morikawa, Hiroyuki

2017-05-15

We propose and experimentally demonstrate a proof-of-concept of a programmable optical transceiver that enables simultaneous optimization of multiple programmable parameters (modulation format, symbol rate, power allocation, and FEC) for satisfying throughput, signal quality, and latency requirements. The proposed optical transceiver also accommodates multiple sub-channels that can transport different optical signals with different requirements. Multi-degree-of-freedom of the parameters often leads to difficulty in finding the optimum combination among the parameters due to an explosion of the number of combinations. The proposed optical transceiver reduces the number of combinations and finds feasible sets of programmable parameters by using constraints of the parameters combined with a precise analytical model. For precise BER prediction with the specified set of parameters, we model the sub-channel BER as a function of OSNR, modulation formats, symbol rates, and power difference between sub-channels. Next, we formulate simple constraints of the parameters and combine the constraints with the analytical model to seek feasible sets of programmable parameters. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the end-to-end operation of the proposed optical transceiver with offline manner including low-density parity-check (LDPC) FEC encoding and decoding under a specific use case with latency-sensitive application and 40-km transmission.

Comparative Sensitivity Analysis of Muscle Activation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Günther, Michael; Götz, Thomas

2015-01-01

We mathematically compared two models of mammalian striated muscle activation dynamics proposed by Hatze and Zajac. Both models are representative for a broad variety of biomechanical models formulated as ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models incorporate parameters that directly represent known physiological properties. Other parameters have been introduced to reproduce empirical observations. We used sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of model parameters on the ODE solutions. In addition, we expanded an existing approach to treating initial conditions as parameters and to calculating second-order sensitivities. Furthermore, we used a global sensitivity analysis approach to include finite ranges of parameter values. Hence, a theoretician striving for model reduction could use the method for identifying particularly low sensitivities to detect superfluous parameters. An experimenter could use it for identifying particularly high sensitivities to improve parameter estimation. Hatze's nonlinear model incorporates some parameters to which activation dynamics is clearly more sensitive than to any parameter in Zajac's linear model. Other than Zajac's model, Hatze's model can, however, reproduce measured shifts in optimal muscle length with varied muscle activity. Accordingly we extracted a specific parameter set for Hatze's model that combines best with a particular muscle force-length relation. PMID:26417379

Reliability analysis of a sensitive and independent stabilometry parameter set

PubMed Central

Nagymáté, Gergely; Orlovits, Zsanett

2018-01-01

Recent studies have suggested reduced independent and sensitive parameter sets for stabilometry measurements based on correlation and variance analyses. However, the reliability of these recommended parameter sets has not been studied in the literature or not in every stance type used in stabilometry assessments, for example, single leg stances. The goal of this study is to evaluate the test-retest reliability of different time-based and frequency-based parameters that are calculated from the center of pressure (CoP) during bipedal and single leg stance for 30- and 60-second measurement intervals. Thirty healthy subjects performed repeated standing trials in a bipedal stance with eyes open and eyes closed conditions and in a single leg stance with eyes open for 60 seconds. A force distribution measuring plate was used to record the CoP. The reliability of the CoP parameters was characterized by using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), coefficient of variation (CV) and CV compliance rate (CVCR). Based on the ICC, SEM and MDC results, many parameters yielded fair to good reliability values, while the CoP path length yielded the highest reliability (smallest ICC > 0.67 (0.54–0.79), largest SEM% = 19.2%). Usually, frequency type parameters and extreme value parameters yielded poor reliability values. There were differences in the reliability of the maximum CoP velocity (better with 30 seconds) and mean power frequency (better with 60 seconds) parameters between the different sampling intervals. PMID:29664938

Reliability analysis of a sensitive and independent stabilometry parameter set.

PubMed

Nagymáté, Gergely; Orlovits, Zsanett; Kiss, Rita M

2018-01-01

Recent studies have suggested reduced independent and sensitive parameter sets for stabilometry measurements based on correlation and variance analyses. However, the reliability of these recommended parameter sets has not been studied in the literature or not in every stance type used in stabilometry assessments, for example, single leg stances. The goal of this study is to evaluate the test-retest reliability of different time-based and frequency-based parameters that are calculated from the center of pressure (CoP) during bipedal and single leg stance for 30- and 60-second measurement intervals. Thirty healthy subjects performed repeated standing trials in a bipedal stance with eyes open and eyes closed conditions and in a single leg stance with eyes open for 60 seconds. A force distribution measuring plate was used to record the CoP. The reliability of the CoP parameters was characterized by using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change (MDC), coefficient of variation (CV) and CV compliance rate (CVCR). Based on the ICC, SEM and MDC results, many parameters yielded fair to good reliability values, while the CoP path length yielded the highest reliability (smallest ICC > 0.67 (0.54-0.79), largest SEM% = 19.2%). Usually, frequency type parameters and extreme value parameters yielded poor reliability values. There were differences in the reliability of the maximum CoP velocity (better with 30 seconds) and mean power frequency (better with 60 seconds) parameters between the different sampling intervals.

Forest fragmentation and bird community dynamics: inference at regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

With increasing fragmentation of natural areas and a dramatic reduction of forest cover in several parts of the world, quantifying the impact of such changes on species richness and community dynamics has been a subject of much concern. Here, we tested whether in more fragmented landscapes there was a lower number of area-sensitive species and higher local extinction and turnover rates, which could explain higher temporal variability in species richness. To investigate such potential landscape effects at a regional scale, we merged two independent, large-scale monitoring efforts: the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and the Land Use and Land Cover Classification data from the U.S. Geological Survey. We used methods that accounted for heterogeneity in the probability of detecting species to estimate species richness and temporal changes in the bird communities for BBS routes in three mid-Atlantic U.S. states. Forest breeding bird species were grouped prior to the analyses into area-sensitive and non-area-sensitive species according to previous studies. We tested predictions relating measures of forest structure at one point in time (1974) to species richness at that time and to parameters of forest bird community change over the following 22-yr-period (1975-1996). We used the mean size of forest patches to characterize landscape structure, as high correlations among landscape variables did not allow us to disentangle the relative roles of habitat fragmentation per se and habitat loss. As predicted, together with lower species richness for area-sensitive species on routes surrounded by landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size, we found higher mean year-to-year rates of local extinction. Moreover, the mean year-to-year rates of local turnover (proportion of locally new species) for area-sensitive species were also higher in landscapes with lower mean forest-patch size. These associations were not observed for the non-area-sensitive species group. These results suggest that landscape structure may influence forest bird communities at regional scales through its effects on the total number of species but also on the temporal rates of change in community composition. Evidence for higher rates of local extinction and turnover in more fragmented landscapes suggests that bird communities function as metapopulations at a regional scale, and points out the importance of colonizations and recolonizations from surrounding landscapes to local community dynamics. Further, our results illustrate that the methods used to estimate the community parameters can be a powerful statistical tool in addressing questions relative to the dynamics of communities.

Sensitivity of liquid clouds to homogenous freezing parameterizations.

PubMed

Herbert, Ross J; Murray, Benjamin J; Dobbie, Steven J; Koop, Thomas

2015-03-16

Water droplets in some clouds can supercool to temperatures where homogeneous ice nucleation becomes the dominant freezing mechanism. In many cloud resolving and mesoscale models, it is assumed that homogeneous ice nucleation in water droplets only occurs below some threshold temperature typically set at -40°C. However, laboratory measurements show that there is a finite rate of nucleation at warmer temperatures. In this study we use a parcel model with detailed microphysics to show that cloud properties can be sensitive to homogeneous ice nucleation as warm as -30°C. Thus, homogeneous ice nucleation may be more important for cloud development, precipitation rates, and key cloud radiative parameters than is often assumed. Furthermore, we show that cloud development is particularly sensitive to the temperature dependence of the nucleation rate. In order to better constrain the parameterization of homogeneous ice nucleation laboratory measurements are needed at both high (>-35°C) and low (<-38°C) temperatures. Homogeneous freezing may be significant as warm as -30°CHomogeneous freezing should not be represented by a threshold approximationThere is a need for an improved parameterization of homogeneous ice nucleation.

The impact of standard and hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes in the Noah-MP land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Samaniego, Luis; Clark, Martyn; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Branch, Oliver; Attinger, Sabine; Thober, Stephan

2016-09-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of process descriptions, containing a multitude of parameters. These parameters are typically read from tabulated input files. Some of these parameters might be fixed numbers in the computer code though, which hinder model agility during calibration. Here we identified 139 hard-coded parameters in the model code of the Noah land surface model with multiple process options (Noah-MP). We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis of Noah-MP for a specific set of process options, which includes 42 out of the 71 standard parameters and 75 out of the 139 hard-coded parameters. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff as well as their component fluxes were evaluated at 12 catchments within the United States with very different hydrometeorological regimes. Noah-MP's hydrologic output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its applicable standard parameters (i.e., Sobol' indexes above 1%). The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for direct evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded parameters of the snow processes and the meteorological inputs. These parameter sensitivities diminish in total runoff. Assessing these parameters in model calibration would require detailed snow observations or the calculation of hydrologic signatures of the runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff exhibit very similar sensitivities because of their tight coupling via the water balance. A calibration of Noah-MP against either of these fluxes should therefore give comparable results. Moreover, these fluxes are sensitive to both plant and soil parameters. Calibrating, for example, only soil parameters hence limit the ability to derive realistic model parameters. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

CASL L2 milestone report : VUQ.Y1.03, %22Enable statistical sensitivity and UQ demonstrations for VERA.%22

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sung, Yixing; Adams, Brian M.; Witkowski, Walter R.

2011-04-01

The CASL Level 2 Milestone VUQ.Y1.03, 'Enable statistical sensitivity and UQ demonstrations for VERA,' was successfully completed in March 2011. The VUQ focus area led this effort, in close partnership with AMA, and with support from VRI. DAKOTA was coupled to VIPRE-W thermal-hydraulics simulations representing reactors of interest to address crud-related challenge problems in order to understand the sensitivity and uncertainty in simulation outputs with respect to uncertain operating and model form parameters. This report summarizes work coupling the software tools, characterizing uncertainties, selecting sensitivity and uncertainty quantification algorithms, and analyzing the results of iterative studies. These demonstration studies focusedmore » on sensitivity and uncertainty of mass evaporation rate calculated by VIPRE-W, a key predictor for crud-induced power shift (CIPS).« less

Variation in detection among passive infrared triggered-cameras used in wildlife research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damm, Philip E.; Grand, James B.; Barnett, Steven W.

2010-01-01

Precise and accurate estimates of demographics such as age structure, productivity, and density are necessary in determining habitat and harvest management strategies for wildlife populations. Surveys using automated cameras are becoming an increasingly popular tool for estimating these parameters. However, most camera studies fail to incorporate detection probabilities, leading to parameter underestimation. The objective of this study was to determine the sources of heterogeneity in detection for trail cameras that incorporate a passive infrared (PIR) triggering system sensitive to heat and motion. Images were collected at four baited sites within the Conecuh National Forest, Alabama, using three cameras at each site operating continuously over the same seven-day period. Detection was estimated for four groups of animals based on taxonomic group and body size. Our hypotheses of detection considered variation among bait sites and cameras. The best model (w=0.99) estimated different rates of detection for each camera in addition to different detection rates for four animal groupings. Factors that explain this variability might include poor manufacturing tolerances, variation in PIR sensitivity, animal behavior, and species-specific infrared radiation. Population surveys using trail cameras with PIR systems must incorporate detection rates for individual cameras. Incorporating time-lapse triggering systems into survey designs should eliminate issues associated with PIR systems.

Psychophysiological response to cognitive workload during symmetrical, asymmetrical and dual-task walking.

PubMed

Knaepen, Kristel; Marusic, Uros; Crea, Simona; Rodríguez Guerrero, Carlos D; Vitiello, Nicola; Pattyn, Nathalie; Mairesse, Olivier; Lefeber, Dirk; Meeusen, Romain

2015-04-01

Walking with a lower limb prosthesis comes at a high cognitive workload for amputees, possibly affecting their mobility, safety and independency. A biocooperative prosthesis which is able to reduce the cognitive workload of walking could offer a solution. Therefore, we wanted to investigate whether different levels of cognitive workload can be assessed during symmetrical, asymmetrical and dual-task walking and to identify which parameters are the most sensitive. Twenty-four healthy subjects participated in this study. Cognitive workload was assessed through psychophysiological responses, physical and cognitive performance and subjective ratings. The results showed that breathing frequency and heart rate significantly increased, and heart rate variability significantly decreased with increasing cognitive workload during walking (p<.05). Performance measures (e.g., cadence) only changed under high cognitive workload. As a result, psychophysiological measures are the most sensitive to identify changes in cognitive workload during walking. These parameters reflect the cognitive effort necessary to maintain performance during complex walking and can easily be assessed regardless of the task. This makes them excellent candidates to feed to the control loop of a biocooperative prosthesis in order to detect the cognitive workload. This information can then be used to adapt the robotic assistance to the patient's cognitive abilities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Test Method Variability in Slow Crack Growth Properties of Sealing Glasses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, J. A.; Tandon, R.

2010-01-01

The crack growth properties of several sealing glasses were measured by using constant stress rate testing in 2 and 95 percent RH (relative humidity). Crack growth parameters measured in high humidity are systematically smaller (n and B) than those measured in low humidity, and crack velocities for dry environments are 100x lower than for wet environments. The crack velocity is very sensitive to small changes in RH at low RH. Biaxial and uniaxial stress states produced similar parameters. Confidence intervals on crack growth parameters that were estimated from propagation of errors solutions were comparable to those from Monte Carlo simulation. Use of scratch-like and indentation flaws produced similar crack growth parameters when residual stresses were considered.

Thermodynamic modeling of transcription: sensitivity analysis differentiates biological mechanism from mathematical model-induced effects.

PubMed

Dresch, Jacqueline M; Liu, Xiaozhou; Arnosti, David N; Ay, Ahmet

2010-10-24

Quantitative models of gene expression generate parameter values that can shed light on biological features such as transcription factor activity, cooperativity, and local effects of repressors. An important element in such investigations is sensitivity analysis, which determines how strongly a model's output reacts to variations in parameter values. Parameters of low sensitivity may not be accurately estimated, leading to unwarranted conclusions. Low sensitivity may reflect the nature of the biological data, or it may be a result of the model structure. Here, we focus on the analysis of thermodynamic models, which have been used extensively to analyze gene transcription. Extracted parameter values have been interpreted biologically, but until now little attention has been given to parameter sensitivity in this context. We apply local and global sensitivity analyses to two recent transcriptional models to determine the sensitivity of individual parameters. We show that in one case, values for repressor efficiencies are very sensitive, while values for protein cooperativities are not, and provide insights on why these differential sensitivities stem from both biological effects and the structure of the applied models. In a second case, we demonstrate that parameters that were thought to prove the system's dependence on activator-activator cooperativity are relatively insensitive. We show that there are numerous parameter sets that do not satisfy the relationships proferred as the optimal solutions, indicating that structural differences between the two types of transcriptional enhancers analyzed may not be as simple as altered activator cooperativity. Our results emphasize the need for sensitivity analysis to examine model construction and forms of biological data used for modeling transcriptional processes, in order to determine the significance of estimated parameter values for thermodynamic models. Knowledge of parameter sensitivities can provide the necessary context to determine how modeling results should be interpreted in biological systems.

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

Linear bubble plume model for hypolimnetic oxygenation: Full-scale validation and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singleton, V. L.; Gantzer, P.; Little, J. C.

2007-02-01

An existing linear bubble plume model was improved, and data collected from a full-scale diffuser installed in Spring Hollow Reservoir, Virginia, were used to validate the model. The depth of maximum plume rise was simulated well for two of the three diffuser tests. Temperature predictions deviated from measured profiles near the maximum plume rise height, but predicted dissolved oxygen profiles compared very well with observations. A sensitivity analysis was performed. The gas flow rate had the greatest effect on predicted plume rise height and induced water flow rate, both of which were directly proportional to gas flow rate. Oxygen transfer within the hypolimnion was independent of all parameters except initial bubble radius and was inversely proportional for radii greater than approximately 1 mm. The results of this work suggest that plume dynamics and oxygen transfer can successfully be predicted for linear bubble plumes using the discrete-bubble approach.

Comparison of Two Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameed, M.; Demirel, M. C.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. In this study, the effects of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters, forcing data, and initial conditions are analysed by using two GSA methods: Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). The simulations are carried out over five sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) for three different periods: one-year, four-year, and seven-year. Four factors are considered and evaluated by using the two sensitivity analysis methods: the simulation length, parameter range, model initial conditions, and the reliability of the global sensitivity analysis methods. The reliability of the sensitivity analysis results is compared based on 1) the agreement between the two sensitivity analysis methods (Sobol' and FAST) in terms of highlighting the same parameters or input as the most influential parameters or input and 2) how the methods are cohered in ranking these sensitive parameters under the same conditions (sub-basins and simulation length). The results show the coherence between the Sobol' and FAST sensitivity analysis methods. Additionally, it is found that FAST method is sufficient to evaluate the main effects of the model parameters and inputs. Another conclusion of this study is that the smaller parameter or initial condition ranges, the more consistency and coherence between the sensitivity analysis methods results.

Quantifying the Uncertainty in Discharge Data Using Hydraulic Knowledge and Uncertain Gaugings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, B.; Le Coz, J.; Bonnifait, L.; Branger, F.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Horner, I.; Mansanarez, V.; Lang, M.

2014-12-01

River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.).

Detection of Volatile Organic Compounds by Self-assembled Monolayer Coated Sensor Array with Concentration-independent Fingerprints

PubMed Central

Chang, Ye; Tang, Ning; Qu, Hemi; Liu, Jing; Zhang, Daihua; Zhang, Hao; Pang, Wei; Duan, Xuexin

2016-01-01

In this paper, we have modeled and analyzed affinities and kinetics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) adsorption (and desorption) on various surface chemical groups using multiple self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) functionalized film bulk acoustic resonator (FBAR) array. The high-frequency and micro-scale resonator provides improved sensitivity in the detections of VOCs at trace levels. With the study of affinities and kinetics, three concentration-independent intrinsic parameters (monolayer adsorption capacity, adsorption energy constant and desorption rate) of gas-surface interactions are obtained to contribute to a multi-parameter fingerprint library of VOC analytes. Effects of functional group’s properties on gas-surface interactions are also discussed. The proposed sensor array with concentration-independent fingerprint library shows potential as a portable electronic nose (e-nose) system for VOCs discrimination and gas-sensitive materials selections. PMID:27045012

Micron MT29F128G08AJAAA 128GB Asynchronous Flash Memory Total Ionizing Dose Characterization Test Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campola, Michael; Wyrwas, Edward

2017-01-01

The purpose of this test was to characterize the Micron MT29F128G08AJAAAs parameter degradation for total dose response and to evaluate and compare lot date codes for sensitivity. In the test, the device was exposed to both low dose and high dose rate (HDR) irradiations using gamma radiation. Device parameters such as leakage currents, quantity of upset bits and overall chip and die health were investigated to determine which lot is more robust.

Simple Electrolyzer Model Development for High-Temperature Electrolysis System Analysis Using Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JaeHwa Koh; DuckJoo Yoon; Chang H. Oh

2010-07-01

An electrolyzer model for the analysis of a hydrogen-production system using a solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has been developed, and the effects for principal parameters have been estimated by sensitivity studies based on the developed model. The main parameters considered are current density, area specific resistance, temperature, pressure, and molar fraction and flow rates in the inlet and outlet. Finally, a simple model for a high-temperature hydrogen-production system using the solid oxide electrolysis cell integrated with very high temperature reactors is estimated.

Steato-Score: Non-Invasive Quantitative Assessment of Liver Fat by Ultrasound Imaging.

PubMed

Di Lascio, Nicole; Avigo, Cinzia; Salvati, Antonio; Martini, Nicola; Ragucci, Monica; Monti, Serena; Prinster, Anna; Chiappino, Dante; Mancini, Marcello; D'Elia, Domenico; Ghiadoni, Lorenzo; Bonino, Ferruccio; Brunetto, Maurizia R; Faita, Francesco

2018-05-04

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is becoming a global epidemic. The aim of this study was to develop a system for assessing liver fat content based on ultrasound images. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurements were obtained in 61 patients and the controlled attenuation parameter in 54. Ultrasound images were acquired for all 115 participants and used to calculate the hepatic/renal ratio, hepatic/portal vein ratio, attenuation rate, diaphragm visualization and portal vein wall visualization. The Steato-score was obtained by combining these five parameters. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurements were significantly correlated with hepatic/renal ratio, hepatic/portal vein ratio, attenuation rate, diaphragm visualization and portal vein wall visualization; Steato-score was dependent on hepatic/renal ratio, attenuation rate and diaphragm visualization. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was equal to 0.98, with 89% sensitivity and 94% specificity. Controlled attenuation parameter values were significantly correlated with hepatic/renal ratio, attenuation rate, diaphragm visualization and Steato-score; the area under the curve was 0.79. This system could be a valid alternative as a non-invasive, simple and inexpensive assessment of intrahepatic fat. Copyright © 2018 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximum urine concentrating capability in a mathematical model of the inner medulla of the rat kidney.

PubMed

Marcano, Mariano; Layton, Anita T; Layton, Harold E

2010-02-01

In a mathematical model of the urine concentrating mechanism of the inner medulla of the rat kidney, a nonlinear optimization technique was used to estimate parameter sets that maximize the urine-to-plasma osmolality ratio (U/P) while maintaining the urine flow rate within a plausible physiologic range. The model, which used a central core formulation, represented loops of Henle turning at all levels of the inner medulla and a composite collecting duct (CD). The parameters varied were: water flow and urea concentration in tubular fluid entering the descending thin limbs and the composite CD at the outer-inner medullary boundary; scaling factors for the number of loops of Henle and CDs as a function of medullary depth; location and increase rate of the urea permeability profile along the CD; and a scaling factor for the maximum rate of NaCl transport from the CD. The optimization algorithm sought to maximize a quantity E that equaled U/P minus a penalty function for insufficient urine flow. Maxima of E were sought by changing parameter values in the direction in parameter space in which E increased. The algorithm attained a maximum E that increased urine osmolality and inner medullary concentrating capability by 37.5% and 80.2%, respectively, above base-case values; the corresponding urine flow rate and the concentrations of NaCl and urea were all within or near reported experimental ranges. Our results predict that urine osmolality is particularly sensitive to three parameters: the urea concentration in tubular fluid entering the CD at the outer-inner medullary boundary, the location and increase rate of the urea permeability profile along the CD, and the rate of decrease of the CD population (and thus of CD surface area) along the cortico-medullary axis.

Integrating In Vitro, Modeling, and In Vivo Approaches to Investigate Warfarin Bioequivalence

PubMed Central

Wen, H; Fan, J; Vince, B; Li, T; Gao, W; Kinjo, M; Brown, J; Sun, W; Jiang, W; Lionberger, R

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the use of modeling and simulation to investigate bioequivalence (BE) concerns raised about generic warfarin products. To test the hypothesis that the loss of isopropyl alcohol and slow dissolution in acidic pH has significant impact on the pharmacokinetics of warfarin sodium tablets, we conducted physiologically based pharmacokinetic absorption modeling and simulation using formulation factors or in vitro dissolution profiles as input parameters. Sensitivity analyses indicated that warfarin pharmacokinetics was not sensitive to solubility, particle size, density, or dissolution rate in pH 4.5, but was affected by dissolution rate in pH 6.8 and potency. Virtual BE studies suggested that stressed warfarin sodium tablets with slow dissolution rate in pH 4.5 but having similar dissolution rate in pH 6.8 would be bioequivalent to the unstressed warfarin sodium tablets. A four‐way, crossover, single‐dose BE study in healthy subjects was conducted to test the same hypothesis and confirmed the simulation conclusion. PMID:28379643

Dimensions of school climate: teachers' or principals' power styles and subjects' propensities to be climate vigilant as related to students' perceptions of satisfaction and of peers' abusive behavior.

PubMed

Verhoek-Miller, Nancy; Miller, Duane I; Shirachi, Miyoko; Hoda, Nicholas

2002-08-01

Two studies investigated teachers' and principals' power styles as related to college students' retrospective ratings of satisfaction and peers' abusive behavior. One study also investigated retrospective self-perception as related to students' sensitivity to the occurrence of physical and psychological abuse in the school environment. Among the findings were positive correlations between subjects' perceptions that their typical elementary school teacher used referent, legitimate, or expert power styles and subjects' reported satisfaction with their elementary school experience. Small but statistically significant correlations were found suggesting that principals' power style was weakly associated with ratings of psychological abuse in elementary school and physical abuse in middle school. Also, students who rated themselves as intelligent, sensitive, attractive, and depressive had higher ratings of perceived psychological and physical abuse at school. It was concluded that parameters of leaders' power styles and subjects' vigilance might be useful for understanding school climates. Experimentally designed studies are required.

Dynamics of synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Xiang, Hong; Li, Jun

2018-02-01

Synthetic drugs are replacing traditional ones and becoming the main popular ones gradually, which have given rise to serious social issues in recent years. In this paper, a synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general contact rate is proposed. The local and global stabilities are decided by the basic reproduction number R0. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters, we obtain that controlling psychological addiction is better than drugs treatment. These results are verified by numerical simulations.

A collision history-based approach to Sensitivity/Perturbation calculations in the continuous energy Monte Carlo code SERPENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giuseppe Palmiotti

In this work, the implementation of a collision history-based approach to sensitivity/perturbation calculations in the Monte Carlo code SERPENT is discussed. The proposed methods allow the calculation of the eects of nuclear data perturbation on several response functions: the eective multiplication factor, reaction rate ratios and bilinear ratios (e.g., eective kinetics parameters). SERPENT results are compared to ERANOS and TSUNAMI Generalized Perturbation Theory calculations for two fast metallic systems and for a PWR pin-cell benchmark. New methods for the calculation of sensitivities to angular scattering distributions are also presented, which adopts fully continuous (in energy and angle) Monte Carlo estimators.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pal, Pinaki; Probst, Daniel; Pei, Yuanjiang

Fuels in the gasoline auto-ignition range (Research Octane Number (RON) > 60) have been demonstrated to be effective alternatives to diesel fuel in compression ignition engines. Such fuels allow more time for mixing with oxygen before combustion starts, owing to longer ignition delay. Moreover, by controlling fuel injection timing, it can be ensured that the in-cylinder mixture is “premixed enough” before combustion occurs to prevent soot formation while remaining “sufficiently inhomogeneous” in order to avoid excessive heat release rates. Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) has the potential to offer diesel-like efficiency at a lower cost and can be achieved with fuelsmore » such as low-octane straight run gasoline which require significantly less processing in the refinery compared to today’s fuels. To aid the design and optimization of a compression ignition (CI) combustion system using such fuels, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) was conducted to understand the relative influence of various design parameters on efficiency, emissions and heat release rate. The design parameters included injection strategies, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction, temperature and pressure at intake valve closure and injector configuration. These were varied simultaneously to achieve various targets of ignition timing, combustion phasing, overall burn duration, emissions, fuel consumption, peak cylinder pressure and maximum pressure rise rate. The baseline case was a three-dimensional closed-cycle computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation with a sector mesh at medium load conditions. Eleven design parameters were considered and ranges of variation were prescribed to each of these. These input variables were perturbed in their respective ranges using the Monte Carlo (MC) method to generate a set of 256 CFD simulations and the targets were calculated from the simulation results. GSA was then applied as a screening tool to identify the input parameters having the most significant impact on each target. The results were further assessed by investigating the impact of individual parameter variations on the targets. Overall, it was demonstrated that GSA can be an effective tool in understanding parameters sensitive to a low temperature combustion concept with novel fuels.« less

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of a homologous series of barbiturates in the rat: a sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Nestorov, I A; Aarons, L J; Rowland, M

1997-08-01

Sensitivity analysis studies the effects of the inherent variability and uncertainty in model parameters on the model outputs and may be a useful tool at all stages of the pharmacokinetic modeling process. The present study examined the sensitivity of a whole-body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for the distribution kinetics of nine 5-n-alkyl-5-ethyl barbituric acids in arterial blood and 14 tissues (lung, liver, kidney, stomach, pancreas, spleen, gut, muscle, adipose, skin, bone, heart, brain, testes) after i.v. bolus administration to rats. The aims were to obtain new insights into the model used, to rank the model parameters involved according to their impact on the model outputs and to study the changes in the sensitivity induced by the increase in the lipophilicity of the homologues on ascending the series. Two approaches for sensitivity analysis have been implemented. The first, based on the Matrix Perturbation Theory, uses a sensitivity index defined as the normalized sensitivity of the 2-norm of the model compartmental matrix to perturbations in its entries. The second approach uses the traditional definition of the normalized sensitivity function as the relative change in a model state (a tissue concentration) corresponding to a relative change in a model parameter. Autosensitivity has been defined as sensitivity of a state to any of its parameters; cross-sensitivity as the sensitivity of a state to any other states' parameters. Using the two approaches, the sensitivity of representative tissue concentrations (lung, liver, kidney, stomach, gut, adipose, heart, and brain) to the following model parameters: tissue-to-unbound plasma partition coefficients, tissue blood flows, unbound renal and intrinsic hepatic clearance, permeability surface area product of the brain, have been analyzed. Both the tissues and the parameters were ranked according to their sensitivity and impact. The following general conclusions were drawn: (i) the overall sensitivity of the system to all parameters involved is small due to the weak connectivity of the system structure; (ii) the time course of both the auto- and cross-sensitivity functions for all tissues depends on the dynamics of the tissues themselves, e.g., the higher the perfusion of a tissue, the higher are both its cross-sensitivity to other tissues' parameters and the cross-sensitivities of other tissues to its parameters; and (iii) with a few exceptions, there is not a marked influence of the lipophilicity of the homologues on either the pattern or the values of the sensitivity functions. The estimates of the sensitivity and the subsequent tissue and parameter rankings may be extended to other drugs, sharing the same common structure of the whole body PBPK model, and having similar model parameters. Results show also that the computationally simple Matrix Perturbation Analysis should be used only when an initial idea about the sensitivity of a system is required. If comprehensive information regarding the sensitivity is needed, the numerically expensive Direct Sensitivity Analysis should be used.

Overload characteristics of paper-polypropylene-paper cable

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernst, A.

1990-09-01

The short-time rating of PPP pipe-type cable may be lower than the equivalent paper cable sized to carry the same normal load. The ratings depend on the relative conductor sizes and the maximum allowable conductor temperatures of the insulation. The insulation thermal resistivity may be a significant parameter for overload times of approximately one hour and should be verified for PPP insulation. The thermal capacitance temperature characteristic of PPP insulation is not known. However, the overload ratings are not very sensitive to this parameter. Overload ratings are given for maximum conductor temperatures from 105 C to 130 C. Use ofmore » ratings based on temperatures greater than 105 C would require testing to determine the extent of degradation of the insulation at these higher temperatures. PPP-insulated cable will be thermally stable over a wider range of operating conditions (voltage and current) compared with paper-insulated cable. The short-circuit ratings of PPP- and paper-insulated cable systems and the positive/negative and zero sequence impedances are compared. 21 refs., 22 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Diagnostic accuracy of heart-rate recovery after exercise in the assessment of diabetic cardiac autonomic neuropathy.

PubMed

Sacre, J W; Jellis, C L; Coombes, J S; Marwick, T H

2012-09-01

Poor prognosis associated with blunted post-exercise heart-rate recovery may reflect autonomic dysfunction. This study sought the accuracy of post-exercise heart-rate recovery in the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy, which represents a serious, but often unrecognized complication of Type 2 diabetes. Clinical assessment of cardiac autonomic neuropathy and maximal treadmill exercise testing for heart-rate recovery were performed in 135 patients with Type 2 diabetes and negative exercise echocardiograms. Cardiac autonomic neuropathy was defined by abnormalities in ≥ 2 of 7 autonomic function markers, including four cardiac reflex tests and three indices of short-term (5-min) heart-rate variability. Heart-rate recovery was defined at 1-, 2- and 3-min post-exercise. Patients with cardiac autonomic neuropathy (n = 27; 20%) had lower heart-rate recovery at 1-, 2- and 3-min post-exercise (P < 0.01). Heart-rate recovery demonstrated univariate associations with autonomic function markers (r-values 0.20-0.46, P < 0.05). Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve revealed good diagnostic performance of all heart-rate recovery parameters (range 0.80-0.83, P < 0.001). Optimal cut-offs for heart-rate recovery at 1-, 2- and 3-min post-exercise were ≤ 28 beats/min (sensitivity 93%, specificity 69%), ≤ 50 beats/min (sensitivity 96%, specificity 63%) and ≤ 52 beats/min (sensitivity 70%, specificity 84%), respectively. These criteria predicted cardiac autonomic neuropathy independently of relevant clinical and exercise test information (adjusted odds ratios 7-28, P < 0.05). Post-exercise heart-rate recovery provides an accurate diagnostic test for cardiac autonomic neuropathy in Type 2 diabetes. The high sensitivity and modest specificity suggests heart-rate recovery may be useful to screen for patients requiring clinical autonomic evaluation. © 2012 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2012 Diabetes UK.

TEM PSHA2015 Reliability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Wang, Y. J.; Chan, C. H.; Ma, K. F.

2016-12-01

The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) developed a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for determining the probability of exceedance (PoE) of ground motion over a specified period in Taiwan. To investigate the adequacy of the seismic source parameters adopted in the 2015 PSHA of the TEM (TEM PSHA2015), we conducted several tests of the seismic source models. The observed maximal peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ML > 4.0 mainshocks in the 23-year data period of 1993-2015 were used to test the predicted PGA of PSHA from the areal and subduction zone sources with the time-independent Poisson assumption. This comparison excluded the observations from 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, as this was the only earthquake associated with the identified active fault in this past 23 years. We used tornado diagrams to analyze the sensitivities of these source parameters to the ground motion values of the PSHA. This study showed that the predicted PGA for a 63% PoE in the 23-year period corresponded to the empirical PGA and the predicted numbers of PGA exceedances to a threshold value 0.1g close to the observed numbers, confirming the parameter applicability for the areal and subduction zone sources. We adopted the disaggregation analysis from a hazard map to determine the contribution of the individual seismic sources to hazard for six metropolitan cities in Taiwan. The sensitivity tests of the seismogenic structure parameters indicated that the slip rate and maximum magnitude are dominant factors for the TEM PSHA2015. For densely populated faults in SW Taiwan, maximum magnitude is more sensitive than the slip rate, giving the concern on the possible multiple fault segments rupture with larger magnitude in this area, which was not yet considered in TEM PSHA2015. The source category disaggregation also suggested that special attention is necessary for subduction zone earthquakes for long-period shaking seismic hazards in Northern Taiwan.

Viscous Analysis of Pulsating Hydrodynamic Instability and Thermal Coupling Liquid-Propellant Combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margolis, Stephen B.; Sacksteder, Kurt (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability has recently been shown to arise during liquid-propellant deflagration in those parameter regimes where the pressure-dependent burning rate is characterized by a negative pressure sensitivity. This type of instability can coexist with the classical cellular, or Landau form of hydrodynamic instability, with the occurrence of either dependent on whether the pressure sensitivity is sufficiently large or small in magnitude. For the inviscid problem, it has been shown that, when the burning rate is realistically allowed to depend on temperature as well as pressure, sufficiently large values of the temperature sensitivity relative to the pressure sensitivity causes like pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability to become dominant. In that regime, steady, planar burning becomes intrinsically unstable to pulsating disturbances whose wave numbers are sufficiently small. This analysis is extended to the fully viscous case, where it is shown that although viscosity is stabilizing for intermediate and larger wave number perturbations, the intrinsic pulsating instability for small wave numbers remains. Under these conditions, liquid-propellant combustion is predicted to be characterized by large unsteady cells along the liquid/gas interface.

Turbulence Characteristics of Swirling Flowfields. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, T. W.

1983-01-01

Combustor design phenomena; recirculating flows research; single-wire, six-orientation, eddy dissipation rate, and turbulence modeling measurement; directional sensitivity (DS); calibration equipment, confined jet facility, and hot-wire instrumentation; effects of swirl, strong contraction nozzle, and expansion ratio; and turbulence parameters; uncertain; and DS in laminar jets; turbulent nonswirling jets, and turbulent swirling jets are discussed.

Heat-Energy Analysis for Solar Receivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.

1982-01-01

Heat-energy analysis program (HEAP) solves general heat-transfer problems, with some specific features that are "custom made" for analyzing solar receivers. Can be utilized not only to predict receiver performance under varying solar flux, ambient temperature and local heat-transfer rates but also to detect locations of hotspots and metallurgical difficulties and to predict performance sensitivity of neighboring component parameters.

Forest inventory and management-based visual preference models of southern pine stands

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis; James H. Gramann; Edward J. Ruddell; Joanne M. Westphal

1988-01-01

Statistical models explaining students' ratings of photographs of within stand forest scenes were constructed for 99 forest inventory plots in east Texas pine and oak-pine forest types. Models with parameters that are sensitive to visual preference yet compatible with forest management and timber inventories are presented. The models suggest that the density of...

Bio indices for 2,4-D sensitivity between two plant species: Azolla pinnata R.Br. and Vernonia cinerea L. with their cellular responses.

PubMed

De, Arnab Kumar; Dey, Narottam; Adak, Malay Kumar

2016-07-01

In the present experiment a pteridophytic species Azolla and an angiospermic species Vernonia were evaluated on the basis of cellular reactivity for herbicidal action through ongoing concentrations. Initially, both the species recorded a significant activity of IAA-oxidase as mark of IAA metabolism with herbicidal sensitivity. Still, Vernonia species were more affected on 2,4-D mediated auxin catabolism. The loss of auxin concentrations on the tissues by 2,4-D reaction was also reflected on growth parameters including relative growth rate and chlorophyll biosynthesis. In a dose dependent manner Vernonia plants were more affected with loss of chlorophyll content and decline in relative growth rate. On the other hand, both those parameters were adjusted significantly with 2,4-D accumulation in Azolla . The stability of cellular metabolism was documented by significant down regulation of protein and lipid peroxidation with concomitant moderation to superoxide and hydrogen peroxide accumulation. The later two were more vulnerable to damage in the Vernonia plant with profuse accumulation of protein and lipid peroxidation products. Similarly, tissue specific reaction to superoxide and hydrogen peroxide accumulation were distinctly demarcated in two species significantly. As a whole, the cellular responses and metabolite distribution to 2,4-D sensitization are the features to describe bio-indices for aquatic fern species Azolla with comparison to angiospermic species Vernonia .

Effect of Short-Term Mobile Phone Base Station Exposure on Cognitive Performance, Body Temperature, Heart Rate and Blood Pressure of Malaysians

PubMed Central

Malek, F.; Rani, K. A.; Rahim, H. A.; Omar, M. H.

2015-01-01

Individuals who report their sensitivity to electromagnetic fields often undergo cognitive impairments that they believe are due to the exposure of mobile phone technology. The aim of this study is to clarify whether short-term exposure at 1 V/m to the typical Global System for Mobile Communication and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) affects cognitive performance and physiological parameters (body temperature, blood pressure and heart rate). This study applies counterbalanced randomizing single blind tests to determine if sensitive individuals experience more negative health effects when they are exposed to base station signals compared with sham (control) individuals. The sample size is 200 subjects with 50.0% Idiopathic Environmental Intolerance attributed to electromagnetic fields (IEI-EMF) also known as sensitive and 50.0% (non-IEI-EMF). The computer-administered Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB eclipseTM) is used to examine cognitive performance. Four tests are chosen to evaluate Cognitive performance in CANTAB: Reaction Time (RTI), Rapid Visual Processing (RVP), Paired Associates Learning (PAL) and Spatial Span (SSP). Paired sample t-test on the other hand, is used to examine the physiological parameters. Generally, in both groups, there is no statistical significant difference between the exposure and sham exposure towards cognitive performance and physiological effects (P’s > 0.05). PMID:26286015

Effect of Short-Term Mobile Phone Base Station Exposure on Cognitive Performance, Body Temperature, Heart Rate and Blood Pressure of Malaysians.

PubMed

Malek, F; Rani, K A; Rahim, H A; Omar, M H

2015-08-19

Individuals who report their sensitivity to electromagnetic fields often undergo cognitive impairments that they believe are due to the exposure of mobile phone technology. The aim of this study is to clarify whether short-term exposure at 1 V/m to the typical Global System for Mobile Communication and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) affects cognitive performance and physiological parameters (body temperature, blood pressure and heart rate). This study applies counterbalanced randomizing single blind tests to determine if sensitive individuals experience more negative health effects when they are exposed to base station signals compared with sham (control) individuals. The sample size is 200 subjects with 50.0% Idiopathic Environmental Intolerance attributed to electromagnetic fields (IEI-EMF) also known as sensitive and 50.0% (non-IEI-EMF). The computer-administered Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB eclipse(TM)) is used to examine cognitive performance. Four tests are chosen to evaluate Cognitive performance in CANTAB: Reaction Time (RTI), Rapid Visual Processing (RVP), Paired Associates Learning (PAL) and Spatial Span (SSP). Paired sample t-test on the other hand, is used to examine the physiological parameters. Generally, in both groups, there is no statistical significant difference between the exposure and sham exposure towards cognitive performance and physiological effects (P's > 0.05).

Evaluating the combined effects of source zone mass release rates and aquifer heterogeneity on solute discharge uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.

2018-07-01

Quantifying the uncertainty in solute mass discharge at an environmentally sensitive location is key to assess the risks due to groundwater contamination. Solute mass fluxes are strongly affected by the spatial variability of hydrogeological properties as well as release conditions at the source zone. This paper provides a methodological framework to investigate the interaction between the ubiquitous heterogeneity of the hydraulic conductivity and the mass release rate at the source zone on the uncertainty of mass discharge. Through the use of perturbation theory, we derive analytical and semi-analytical expressions for the statistics of the solute mass discharge at a control plane in a three-dimensional aquifer while accounting for the solute mass release rates at the source. The derived solutions are limited to aquifers displaying low-to-mild heterogeneity. Results illustrate the significance of the source zone mass release rate in controlling the mass discharge uncertainty. The relative importance of the mass release rate on the mean solute discharge depends on the distance between the source and the control plane. On the other hand, we find that the solute release rate at the source zone has a strong impact on the variance of the mass discharge. Within a risk context, we also compute the peak mean discharge as a function of the parameters governing the spatial heterogeneity of the hydraulic conductivity field and mass release rates at the source zone. The proposed physically-based framework is application-oriented, computationally efficient and capable of propagating uncertainty from different parameters onto risk metrics. Furthermore, it can be used for preliminary screening purposes to guide site managers to perform system-level sensitivity analysis and better allocate resources.

Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Jung Heon; Wu, Kesheng; Simon, Horst D.

2014-03-01

VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed trading) is a leading indicator of liquidity-induced volatility. It is best known for having produced a signal more than hours before the Flash Crash of 2010. On that day, the market saw the biggest one-day point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which culminated to the market value of $1 trillion disappearing, but only to recover those losses twenty minutes later (Lauricella 2010). The computation of VPIN requires the user to set up a handful of free parameters. The values of these parameters significantly affect the effectiveness of VPIN as measured by themore » false positive rate (FPR). An earlier publication reported that a brute-force search of simple parameter combinations yielded a number of parameter combinations with FPR of 7%. This work is a systematic attempt to find an optimal parameter set using an optimization package, NOMAD (Nonlinear Optimization by Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) by Audet, le digabel, and tribes (2009) and le digabel (2011). We have implemented a number of techniques to reduce the computation time with NOMAD. Tests show that we can reduce the FPR to only 2%. To better understand the parameter choices, we have conducted a series of sensitivity analysis via uncertainty quantification on the parameter spaces using UQTK (Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit). Results have shown dominance of 2 parameters in the computation of FPR. Using the outputs from NOMAD optimization and sensitivity analysis, We recommend A range of values for each of the free parameters that perform well on a large set of futures trading records.« less

Simultaneous estimation of local-scale and flow path-scale dual-domain mass transfer parameters using geoelectrical monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2013-01-01

Anomalous solute transport, modeled as rate-limited mass transfer, has an observable geoelectrical signature that can be exploited to infer the controlling parameters. Previous experiments indicate the combination of time-lapse geoelectrical and fluid conductivity measurements collected during ionic tracer experiments provides valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. Here, we use geoelectrical measurements to monitor tracer experiments at a former uranium mill tailings site in Naturita, Colorado. We use nonlinear regression to calibrate dual-domain mass transfer solute-transport models to field data. This method differs from previous approaches by calibrating the model simultaneously to observed fluid conductivity and geoelectrical tracer signals using two parameter scales: effective parameters for the flow path upgradient of the monitoring point and the parameters local to the monitoring point. We use regression statistics to rigorously evaluate the information content and sensitivity of fluid conductivity and geophysical data, demonstrating multiple scales of mass transfer parameters can simultaneously be estimated. Our results show, for the first time, field-scale spatial variability of mass transfer parameters (i.e., exchange-rate coefficient, porosity) between local and upgradient effective parameters; hence our approach provides insight into spatial variability and scaling behavior. Additional synthetic modeling is used to evaluate the scope of applicability of our approach, indicating greater range than earlier work using temporal moments and a Lagrangian-based Damköhler number. The introduced Eulerian-based Damköhler is useful for estimating tracer injection duration needed to evaluate mass transfer exchange rates that range over several orders of magnitude.

Aerobic stabilization of biological sludge characterized by an extremely low decay rate: modeling, identifiability analysis and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Martínez-García, C G; Olguín, M T; Fall, C

2014-08-01

Aerobic digestion batch tests were run on a sludge model that contained only two fractions, the heterotrophic biomass (XH) and its endogenous residue (XP). The objective was to describe the stabilization of the sludge and estimate the endogenous decay parameters. Modeling was performed with Aquasim, based on long-term data of volatile suspended solids and chemical oxygen demand (VSS, COD). Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the conditions for unique identifiability of the parameters. Importantly, it was found that the COD/VSS ratio of the endogenous residues (1.06) was significantly lower than for the active biomass fraction (1.48). The decay rate constant of the studied sludge (low bH, 0.025 d(-1)) was one-tenth that usually observed (0.2d(-1)), which has two main practical significances. Digestion time required is much more long; also the oxygen uptake rate might be <1.5 mg O₂/gTSSh (biosolids standards), without there being significant decline in the biomass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of rotor parameter variations on handling qualities of unaugmented helicopters in simulated terrain flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talbot, P. D.; Dugan, D. D.; Chen, R. T. N.; Gerdes, R. M.

1980-01-01

A coordinated analysis and ground simulator experiment was performed to investigate the effects on single rotor helicopter handling qualities of systematic variations in the main rotor hinge restraint, hub hinge offset, pitch-flap coupling, and blade lock number. Teetering rotor, articulated rotor, and hingeless rotor helicopters were evaluated by research pilots in special low level flying tasks involving obstacle avoidance at 60 to 100 knots airspeed. The results of the experiment are in the form of pilot ratings, pilot commentary, and some objective performance measures. Criteria for damping and sensitivity are reexamined when combined with the additional factors of cross coupling due to pitch and roll rates, pitch coupling with collective pitch, and longitudinal static stability. Ratings obtained with and without motion are compared. Acceptable flying qualities were obtained within each rotor type by suitable adjustment of the hub parameters, however, pure teetering rotors were found to lack control power for the tasks. A limit for the coupling parameter L sub q/L sub p of 0.35 is suggested.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Homeostasis of the temperature sensitivity of respiration over a range of growth temperatures indicated by a modified Arrhenius model.

PubMed

Noguchi, Ko; Yamori, Wataru; Hikosaka, Kouki; Terashima, Ichiro

2015-07-01

The temperature dependence of plant respiratory rate (R) changes in response to growth temperature. Here, we used a modified Arrhenius model incorporating the temperature dependence of activation energy (Eo ), and compared the temperature dependence of R between cold-sensitive and cold-tolerant species. We analyzed the temperature dependences of leaf CO2 efflux rate of plants cultivated at low (LT) or high temperature (HT). In plants grown at HT (HT plants), Eo at low measurement temperature varied among species, but Eo at growth temperature in HT plants did not vary and was comparable to that in plants grown at LT (LT plants), suggesting that the limiting process was similar at the respective growth temperatures. In LT plants, the integrated value of loge R, a measure of respiratory capacity, in cold-sensitive species was lower than that in cold-tolerant species. When plants were transferred from HT to LT, the respiratory capacity changed promptly after the transfer compared with the other parameters. These results suggest that a similar process limits R at different growth temperatures, and that the lower capacity of the respiratory system in cold-sensitive species may explain their low growth rate at LT. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Sensitivity analysis and comparison of two methods of using heart rate to represent energy expenditure during walking.

PubMed

Karimi, Mohammad Taghi

2015-01-01

Heart rate is an accurate and easy to use method to represent the energy expenditure during walking, based on physiological cost index (PCI). However, in some conditions the heart rate during walking does not reach to a steady state. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the energy expenditure by use of the PCI index. The total heart beat index (THBI) is a new method to solve the aforementioned problem. The aim of this research project was to find the sensitivity of both the physiological cost index (PCI) and total heart beat index (THBI). Fifteen normal subjects and ten patients with flatfoot disorder and two subjects with spinal cord injury were recruited in this research project. The PCI and THBI indexes were determined by use of heart beats with respect to walking speed and total distance walked, respectively. The sensitivity of PCI was more than that of THBI index in the three groups of subjects. Although the PCI and THBI indexes are easy to use and reliable parameters to represent the energy expenditure during walking, their sensitivity is not high to detect the influence of some orthotic interventions, such as use of insoles or using shoes on energy expenditure during walking.

Gamma-index method sensitivity for gauging plan delivery accuracy of volumetric modulated arc therapy.

PubMed

Park, Jong In; Park, Jong Min; Kim, Jung-In; Park, So-Yeon; Ye, Sung-Joon

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the sensitivity of the gamma-index method according to various gamma criteria for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Twenty head and neck (HN) and twenty prostate VMAT plans were retrospectively selected for this study. Both global and local 2D gamma evaluations were performed with criteria of 3%/3 mm, 2%/2 mm, 1%/2 mm and 2%/1 mm. In this study, the global and local gamma-index calculated the differences in doses relative to the maximum dose and the dose at the current measurement point, respectively. Using log files acquired during delivery, the differences in parameters at every control point between the VMAT plans and the log files were acquired. The differences in dose-volumetric parameters between reconstructed VMAT plans using the log files and the original VMAT plans were calculated. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficients (rs) were calculated between the passing rates and those differences. Considerable correlations with statistical significances were observed between global 1%/2 mm, local 1%/2 mm and local 2%/1 mm and the MLC position differences (rs = -0.712, -0.628 and -0.581). The numbers of rs values with statistical significance between the passing rates and the changes in dose-volumetric parameters were largest in global 2%/2 mm (n = 16), global 2%/1 mm (n = 15) and local 2%/1 mm (n = 13) criteria. Local gamma-index method with 2%/1 mm generally showed higher sensitivity to detect deviations between a VMAT plan and the delivery of the VMAT plan. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple driving factors explain spatial and temporal variability in coral calcification rates on the Bermuda platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venti, A.; Andersson, A.; Langdon, C.

2014-12-01

Experimental studies have shown that coral calcification rates are dependent on light, nutrients, food availability, temperature, and seawater aragonite saturation ( Ω arag), but the relative importance of each parameter in natural settings remains uncertain. In this study, we applied Calcein fluorescent dyes as time indicators within the skeleton of coral colonies ( n = 3) of Porites astreoides and Diploria strigosa at three study sites distributed across the northern Bermuda coral reef platform. We evaluated the correlation between seasonal average growth rates based on coral density and extension rates with average temperature, light, and seawater Ω arag in an effort to decipher the relative importance of each parameter. The results show significant seasonal differences among coral calcification rates ranging from summer maximums of 243 ± 58 and 274 ± 57 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 to winter minimums of 135 ± 39 and 101 ± 34 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1 for P. astreoides and D. strigosa, respectively. We also placed small coral colonies ( n = 10) in transparent chambers and measured the instantaneous rate of calcification under light and dark treatments at the same study sites. The results showed that the skeletal growth of D. strigosa and P. astreoides, whether hourly or seasonal, was highly sensitive to Ω arag. We believe this high sensitivity, however, is misleading, due to covariance between light and Ω arag, with the former being the strongest driver of calcification variability. For the seasonal data, we assessed the impact that the observed seasonal differences in temperature (4.0 °C), light (5.1 mol photons m-2 d-1), and Ω arag (0.16 units) would have on coral growth rates based on established relationships derived from laboratory studies and found that they could account for approximately 44, 52, and 5 %, respectively, of the observed seasonal change of 81 ± 14 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1. Using short-term light and dark incubations, we show how the covariance of light and Ω arag can lead to the false conclusion that calcification is more sensitive to Ω arag than it really is.

Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J.

2009-12-01

A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not more important, than the role of biota to influence mineral dissolution rates through changes in soil water chemistry. This process-modeling approach to quantify the biological weathering feedback to atmospheric CO2 demonstrates the potential for a far more mechanistic description of weathering feedback in simulations of the global geochemical carbon cycle.

Microplastic bases for constitutive characterization of aluminum alloys and their correlation to sheet formability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diak, Bradley James

Forming limit predictions that incorporate crystal plasticity models still cannot adequately predict the deformation performance of polycrystalline materials. The reason for the limitation in predictive power is that the constitutive equations used to connect to the atomic scale assume an affine deformation which do not have a physical basis, but give general trends. This study was undertaken to better elucidate the microplastic process and how it manifests itself phenomenologically. In this endeavour, the strain rate sensitivity of the flow stress was identified as one parameter that greatly affects the forming limit. Hence, an attempt was made to properly define and measure the strain rate sensitivity according to the dictates of thermodynamics. The thermodynamics of systems can delineate the evolution of the state of a material if the state variables can be characterized and measured. Inevitably, these variables must be determined at constant structure. Using the theory of thermally activated flow, where the movement of dislocations past obstacles is the rate controlling step, the mechanical testing techniques have been designed to statistically assess the dynamic evolution of the microstructure by controlling the temperature, T, and strain rate, dotvarepsilon, and measuring the stress, sigma, mean slip distance, lambda, and mean slip velocity, dotlambda, to define sigma=f(lambda,dotlambda, T). The apparent activation volume, which characterizes the obstacle resistance of strain centres, is determined at constant structure by applying the strain rate change technique. Strain rate sensitivity data are compared to the Cottrell-Stokes relation, and the Haasen plot is used to separate the different contributions to the flow stress. Using these precise measurements at interrupted segments of strain, the evolution of a microstructure during plastic flow can be monitored. By this examination of different rate controlling obstacles, the microstructural parameters which correlate to formability were assessed. Detailed experimental evidence is given for different aluminum alloys containing mainly fast or slow diffusing solute species, transition precipitates, dispersed particles, and/or dislocation debris. These systems of Al-Fe, Al-Cr, Al-Cu, Al-Mg, and Al-Mg-Si, all displayed unique dislocation-defect interactions which could be elucidated by the current theory of thermally activated flow.

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of mass transfer in active multilayer polymeric film for food applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedane, T.; Di Maio, L.; Scarfato, P.; Incarnato, L.; Marra, F.

2015-12-01

The barrier performance of multilayer polymeric films for food applications has been significantly improved by incorporating oxygen scavenging materials. The scavenging activity depends on parameters such as diffusion coefficient, solubility, concentration of scavenger loaded and the number of available reactive sites. These parameters influence the barrier performance of the film in different ways. Virtualization of the process is useful to characterize, design and optimize the barrier performance based on physical configuration of the films. Also, the knowledge of values of parameters is important to predict the performances. Inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis are sole way to find reasonable values of poorly defined, unmeasured parameters and to analyze the most influencing parameters. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a model to predict barrier properties of multilayer film incorporated with reactive layers and to analyze and characterize their performances. Polymeric film based on three layers of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with a core reactive layer, at different thickness configurations was considered in the model. A one dimensional diffusion equation with reaction was solved numerically to predict the concentration of oxygen diffused into the polymer taking into account the reactive ability of the core layer. The model was solved using commercial software for different film layer configurations and sensitivity analysis based on inverse modeling was carried out to understand the effect of physical parameters. The results have shown that the use of sensitivity analysis can provide physical understanding of the parameters which highly affect the gas permeation into the film. Solubility and the number of available reactive sites were the factors mainly influencing the barrier performance of three layered polymeric film. Multilayer films slightly modified the steady transport properties in comparison to net PET, giving a small reduction in the permeability and oxygen transfer rate values. Scavenging capacity of the multilayer film increased linearly with the increase of the reactive layer thickness and the oxygen absorption reaction at short times decreased proportionally with the thickness of the external PET layer.

Modeling and sensitivity analysis of mass transfer in active multilayer polymeric film for food applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bedane, T.; Di Maio, L.; Scarfato, P.

The barrier performance of multilayer polymeric films for food applications has been significantly improved by incorporating oxygen scavenging materials. The scavenging activity depends on parameters such as diffusion coefficient, solubility, concentration of scavenger loaded and the number of available reactive sites. These parameters influence the barrier performance of the film in different ways. Virtualization of the process is useful to characterize, design and optimize the barrier performance based on physical configuration of the films. Also, the knowledge of values of parameters is important to predict the performances. Inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis are sole way to find reasonable values ofmore » poorly defined, unmeasured parameters and to analyze the most influencing parameters. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop a model to predict barrier properties of multilayer film incorporated with reactive layers and to analyze and characterize their performances. Polymeric film based on three layers of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET), with a core reactive layer, at different thickness configurations was considered in the model. A one dimensional diffusion equation with reaction was solved numerically to predict the concentration of oxygen diffused into the polymer taking into account the reactive ability of the core layer. The model was solved using commercial software for different film layer configurations and sensitivity analysis based on inverse modeling was carried out to understand the effect of physical parameters. The results have shown that the use of sensitivity analysis can provide physical understanding of the parameters which highly affect the gas permeation into the film. Solubility and the number of available reactive sites were the factors mainly influencing the barrier performance of three layered polymeric film. Multilayer films slightly modified the steady transport properties in comparison to net PET, giving a small reduction in the permeability and oxygen transfer rate values. Scavenging capacity of the multilayer film increased linearly with the increase of the reactive layer thickness and the oxygen absorption reaction at short times decreased proportionally with the thickness of the external PET layer.« less

Feasibility of high-resolution one-dimensional relaxation imaging at low magnetic field using a single-sided NMR scanner applied to articular cartilage.

PubMed

Rössler, Erik; Mattea, Carlos; Stapf, Siegfried

2015-02-01

Low field Nuclear Magnetic Resonance increases the contrast of the longitudinal relaxation rate in many biological tissues; one prominent example is hyaline articular cartilage. In order to take advantage of this increased contrast and to profile the depth-dependent variations, high resolution parameter measurements are carried out which can be of critical importance in an early diagnosis of cartilage diseases such as osteoarthritis. However, the maximum achievable spatial resolution of parameter profiles is limited by factors such as sensor geometry, sample curvature, and diffusion limitation. In this work, we report on high-resolution single-sided NMR scanner measurements with a commercial device, and quantify these limitations. The highest achievable spatial resolution on the used profiler, and the lateral dimension of the sensitive volume were determined. Since articular cartilage samples are usually bent, we also focus on averaging effects inside the horizontally aligned sensitive volume and their impact on the relaxation profiles. Taking these critical parameters into consideration, depth-dependent relaxation time profiles with the maximum achievable vertical resolution of 20 μm are discussed, and are correlated with diffusion coefficient profiles in hyaline articular cartilage in order to reconstruct T(2) maps from the diffusion-weighted CPMG decays of apparent relaxation rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scalar production in association with a Z boson at the LHC and ILC: The mixed Higgs-radion case of warped models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelescu, Andrei; Moreau, Grégory; Richard, François

2017-07-01

The radion scalar field might be the lightest new particle predicted by extradimensional extensions of the standard model. It could thus lead to the first signatures of new physics at the LHC collider. We perform a complete study of the radion production in association with the Z gauge boson in the custodially protected warped model with a brane-localized Higgs boson addressing the gauge hierarchy problem. Radion-Higgs mixing effects are present. Such a radion production receives possibly resonant contributions from the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Z boson as well as the extra neutral gauge boson (Z'). All the exchange and mixing effects induced by those heavy bosons are taken into account in the radion coupling and rate calculations. The investigation of the considered radion production at the LHC allows us to be sensitive to some parts of the parameter space but only the ILC program at high luminosity would cover most of the theoretically allowed parameter space via the studied reaction. Complementary tests of the same theoretical parameters can be realized through the high accuracy measurements of the Higgs couplings at the ILC. The generic sensitivity limits on the rates discussed for the LHC and ILC potential reach can be applied to the searches for other (light) exotic scalar bosons.

Classification of hydrological parameter sensitivity and evaluation of parameter transferability across 431 US MOPEX basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Huiying; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi

The Community Land Model (CLM) represents physical, chemical, and biological processes of the terrestrial ecosystems that interact with climate across a range of spatial and temporal scales. As CLM includes numerous sub-models and associated parameters, the high-dimensional parameter space presents a formidable challenge for quantifying uncertainty and improving Earth system predictions needed to assess environmental changes and risks. This study aims to evaluate the potential of transferring hydrologic model parameters in CLM through sensitivity analyses and classification across watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) in the United States. The sensitivity of CLM-simulated water and energy fluxes to hydrologicalmore » parameters across 431 MOPEX basins are first examined using an efficient stochastic sampling-based sensitivity analysis approach. Linear, interaction, and high-order nonlinear impacts are all identified via statistical tests and stepwise backward removal parameter screening. The basins are then classified accordingly to their parameter sensitivity patterns (internal attributes), as well as their hydrologic indices/attributes (external hydrologic factors) separately, using a Principal component analyses (PCA) and expectation-maximization (EM) –based clustering approach. Similarities and differences among the parameter sensitivity-based classification system (S-Class), the hydrologic indices-based classification (H-Class), and the Koppen climate classification systems (K-Class) are discussed. Within each S-class with similar parameter sensitivity characteristics, similar inversion modeling setups can be used for parameter calibration, and the parameters and their contribution or significance to water and energy cycling may also be more transferrable. This classification study provides guidance on identifiable parameters, and on parameterization and inverse model design for CLM but the methodology is applicable to other models. Inverting parameters at representative sites belonging to the same class can significantly reduce parameter calibration efforts.« less

Dimethylsulfide model calibration and parametric sensitivity analysis for the Greenland Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Bo; Gabric, Albert J.; Zeng, Meifang; Xi, Jiaojiao; Jiang, Limei; Zhao, Li

2017-09-01

Sea-to-air fluxes of marine biogenic aerosols have the potential to modify cloud microphysics and regional radiative budgets, and thus moderate Earth's warming. Polar regions play a critical role in the evolution of global climate. In this work, we use a well-established biogeochemical model to simulate the DMS flux from the Greenland Sea (20°W-10°E and 70°N-80°N) for the period 2003-2004. Parameter sensitivity analysis is employed to identify the most sensitive parameters in the model. A genetic algorithm (GA) technique is used for DMS model parameter calibration. Data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive the DMS model under 4 × CO2 conditions. DMS flux under quadrupled CO2 levels increases more than 300% compared with late 20th century levels (1 × CO2). Reasons for the increase in DMS flux include changes in the ocean state-namely an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and loss of sea ice-and an increase in DMS transfer velocity, especially in spring and summer. Such a large increase in DMS flux could slow the rate of warming in the Arctic via radiative budget changes associated with DMS-derived aerosols.

Sensitivity of gravitational wave searches to the full signal of intermediate-mass black hole binaries during the first observing run of Advanced LIGO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderón Bustillo, Juan; Salemi, Francesco; Dal Canton, Tito; Jani, Karan P.

2018-01-01

The sensitivity of gravitational wave searches for binary black holes is estimated via the injection and posterior recovery of simulated gravitational wave signals in the detector data streams. When a search reports no detections, the estimated sensitivity is then used to place upper limits on the coalescence rate of the target source. In order to obtain correct sensitivity and rate estimates, the injected waveforms must be faithful representations of the real signals. Up to date, however, injected waveforms have neglected radiation modes of order higher than the quadrupole, potentially biasing sensitivity and coalescence rate estimates. In particular, higher-order modes are known to have a large impact in the gravitational waves emitted by intermediate-mass black holes binaries. In this work, we evaluate the impact of this approximation in the context of two search algorithms run by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration in their search for intermediate-mass black hole binaries in the O1 LIGO Science Run data: a matched filter-based pipeline and a coherent unmodeled one. To this end, we estimate the sensitivity of both searches to simulated signals for nonspinning binaries including and omitting higher-order modes. We find that omission of higher-order modes leads to biases in the sensitivity estimates which depend on the masses of the binary, the search algorithm, and the required level of significance for detection. In addition, we compare the sensitivity of the two search algorithms across the studied parameter space. We conclude that the most recent LIGO-Virgo upper limits on the rate of coalescence of intermediate-mass black hole binaries are conservative for the case of highly asymmetric binaries. However, the tightest upper limits, placed for nearly equal-mass sources, remain unchanged due to the small contribution of higher modes to the corresponding sources.

Impact of the hard-coded parameters on the hydrologic fluxes of the land surface model Noah-MP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Samaniego, Luis; Clark, Martyn; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Attinger, Sabine; Thober, Stephan

2016-04-01

Land surface models incorporate a large number of processes, described by physical, chemical and empirical equations. The process descriptions contain a number of parameters that can be soil or plant type dependent and are typically read from tabulated input files. Land surface models may have, however, process descriptions that contain fixed, hard-coded numbers in the computer code, which are not identified as model parameters. Here we searched for hard-coded parameters in the computer code of the land surface model Noah with multiple process options (Noah-MP) to assess the importance of the fixed values on restricting the model's agility during parameter estimation. We found 139 hard-coded values in all Noah-MP process options, which are mostly spatially constant values. This is in addition to the 71 standard parameters of Noah-MP, which mostly get distributed spatially by given vegetation and soil input maps. We performed a Sobol' global sensitivity analysis of Noah-MP to variations of the standard and hard-coded parameters for a specific set of process options. 42 standard parameters and 75 hard-coded parameters were active with the chosen process options. The sensitivities of the hydrologic output fluxes latent heat and total runoff as well as their component fluxes were evaluated. These sensitivities were evaluated at twelve catchments of the Eastern United States with very different hydro-meteorological regimes. Noah-MP's hydrologic output fluxes are sensitive to two thirds of its standard parameters. The most sensitive parameter is, however, a hard-coded value in the formulation of soil surface resistance for evaporation, which proved to be oversensitive in other land surface models as well. Surface runoff is sensitive to almost all hard-coded parameters of the snow processes and the meteorological inputs. These parameter sensitivities diminish in total runoff. Assessing these parameters in model calibration would require detailed snow observations or the calculation of hydrologic signatures of the runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff exhibit very similar sensitivities towards standard and hard-coded parameters in Noah-MP because of their tight coupling via the water balance. It should therefore be comparable to calibrate Noah-MP either against latent heat observations or against river runoff data. Latent heat and total runoff are sensitive to both, plant and soil parameters. Calibrating only a parameter sub-set of only soil parameters, for example, thus limits the ability to derive realistic model parameters. It is thus recommended to include the most sensitive hard-coded model parameters that were exposed in this study when calibrating Noah-MP.

Sensitivity and specificity of univariate MRI analysis of experimentally degraded cartilage

PubMed Central

Lin, Ping-Chang; Reiter, David A.; Spencer, Richard G.

2010-01-01

MRI is increasingly used to evaluate cartilage in tissue constructs, explants, and animal and patient studies. However, while mean values of MR parameters, including T1, T2, magnetization transfer rate km, apparent diffusion coefficient ADC, and the dGEMRIC-derived fixed charge density, correlate with tissue status, the ability to classify tissue according to these parameters has not been explored. Therefore, the sensitivity and specificity with which each of these parameters was able to distinguish between normal and trypsin- degraded, and between normal and collagenase-degraded, cartilage explants were determined. Initial analysis was performed using a training set to determine simple group means to which parameters obtained from a validation set were compared. T1 and ADC showed the greatest ability to discriminate between normal and degraded cartilage. Further analysis with k-means clustering, which eliminates the need for a priori identification of sample status, generally performed comparably. Use of fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering to define centroids likewise did not result in improvement in discrimination. Finally, a FCM clustering approach in which validation samples were assigned in a probabilistic fashion to control and degraded groups was implemented, reflecting the range of tissue characteristics seen with cartilage degradation. PMID:19705467

The Precipitation Behavior and Hot Deformation Characteristics of Electron Beam Smelted Inconel 740 Superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Xiaogang; Tan, Yi; Wu, Chang; You, Qifan; Zhao, Longhai; Li, Jiayan

2018-03-01

The Inconel 740 superalloy was prepared by the electron beam smelting (EBS) technology, the precipitation behavior and strengthening mechanism were studied, and the hot deformation characteristics of EBS 740 superalloy were investigated. The results indicate that the EBS 740 superalloy is mainly strengthened by the mechanism of weakly coupled dislocation shearing, and the resulting critical shear stress is calculated to be 234.6 MPa. The deformation parameters show a great influence on the flow behavior of EBS 740 superalloy. The strain rate sensitivity exponent increases with the increasing of deformation temperature, and the strain hardening exponent shows a decreasing trend with the increasing of strain. The activation energy of EBS 740 above 800 °C is measured to be 408.43 kJ/mol, which is higher than the 740H superalloy. A hyperbolic-sine-type relationship can be observed between the peak stress and Zener-Hollomon parameter. Nevertheless, the influence of deformation parameters is found to be considerably different at temperatures below and above 800 °C. The size of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) grains decreases with the increasing of strain rate when the strain rate is lower than 1/s, and reverse law can be found at higher strain rate. As a result, a piecewise function is established between the DRX grain size and hot working parameters.

Experimentally valid predictions of muscle force and EMG in models of motor-unit function are most sensitive to neural properties.

PubMed

Keenan, Kevin G; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J

2007-09-01

Computational models of motor-unit populations are the objective implementations of the hypothesized mechanisms by which neural and muscle properties give rise to electromyograms (EMGs) and force. However, the variability/uncertainty of the parameters used in these models--and how they affect predictions--confounds assessing these hypothesized mechanisms. We perform a large-scale computational sensitivity analysis on the state-of-the-art computational model of surface EMG, force, and force variability by combining a comprehensive review of published experimental data with Monte Carlo simulations. To exhaustively explore model performance and robustness, we ran numerous iterative simulations each using a random set of values for nine commonly measured motor neuron and muscle parameters. Parameter values were sampled across their reported experimental ranges. Convergence after 439 simulations found that only 3 simulations met our two fitness criteria: approximating the well-established experimental relations for the scaling of EMG amplitude and force variability with mean force. An additional 424 simulations preferentially sampling the neighborhood of those 3 valid simulations converged to reveal 65 additional sets of parameter values for which the model predictions approximate the experimentally known relations. We find the model is not sensitive to muscle properties but very sensitive to several motor neuron properties--especially peak discharge rates and recruitment ranges. Therefore to advance our understanding of EMG and muscle force, it is critical to evaluate the hypothesized neural mechanisms as implemented in today's state-of-the-art models of motor unit function. We discuss experimental and analytical avenues to do so as well as new features that may be added in future implementations of motor-unit models to improve their experimental validity.

FDG-PET/CT lymph node staging after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophageal-gastric junction.

PubMed

Fencl, Pavel; Belohlavek, Otakar; Harustiak, Tomas; Zemanova, Milada

2016-11-01

The aim of the analysis was to assess the accuracy of various FDG-PET/CT parameters in staging lymph nodes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. In this prospective study, 74 patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophageal-gastric junction were examined by FDG-PET/CT in the course of their neoadjuvant chemotherapy given before surgical treatment. Data from the final FDG-PET/CT examinations were compared with the histology from the surgical specimens (gold standard). The accuracy was calculated for four FDG-PET/CT parameters: (1) hypermetabolic nodes, (2) large nodes, (3) large-and-medium large nodes, and (4) hypermetabolic or large nodes. In 74 patients, a total of 1540 lymph nodes were obtained by surgery, and these were grouped into 287 regions according to topographic origin. Five hundred and two nodes were imaged by FDG-PET/CT and were grouped into these same regions for comparison. In the analysis, (1) hypermetabolic nodes, (2) large nodes, (3) large-and-medium large nodes, and (4) hypermetabolic or large nodes identified metastases in particular regions with sensitivities of 11.6%, 2.9%, 21.7%, and 13.0%, respectively; specificity was 98.6%, 94.5%, 74.8%, and 93.6%, respectively. The best accuracy of 77.7% reached the parameter of hypermetabolic nodes. Accuracy decreased to 62.0% when also smaller nodes (medium-large) were taken for the parameter of metastases. FDG-PET/CT proved low sensitivity and high specificity. Low sensitivity was based on low detection rate (32.6%) when compared nodes imaged by FDG-PET/CT to nodes found by surgery, and in inability to detect micrometastases. Sensitivity increased when also medium-large LNs were taken for positive, but specificity and accuracy decreased.

Identification of the most sensitive parameters in the activated sludge model implemented in BioWin software.

PubMed

Liwarska-Bizukojc, Ewa; Biernacki, Rafal

2010-10-01

In order to simulate biological wastewater treatment processes, data concerning wastewater and sludge composition, process kinetics and stoichiometry are required. Selection of the most sensitive parameters is an important step of model calibration. The aim of this work is to verify the predictability of the activated sludge model, which is implemented in BioWin software, and select its most influential kinetic and stoichiometric parameters with the help of sensitivity analysis approach. Two different measures of sensitivity are applied: the normalised sensitivity coefficient (S(i,j)) and the mean square sensitivity measure (delta(j)(msqr)). It occurs that 17 kinetic and stoichiometric parameters of the BioWin activated sludge (AS) model can be regarded as influential on the basis of S(i,j) calculations. Half of the influential parameters are associated with growth and decay of phosphorus accumulating organisms (PAOs). The identification of the set of the most sensitive parameters should support the users of this model and initiate the elaboration of determination procedures for the parameters, for which it has not been done yet. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the relative sensitivities of the hydrologic parameters of these two models, we used Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). By combining the NRMSE index with the flow duration curve analysis, we derived an approach to measure parameter sensitivities under different flow regimes. Results show that the parameters related to groundwater are highly sensitive in the LMR watershed, whereas the LVW watershed is primarily sensitive to near surface and impervious parameters. The high and medium flows are more impacted by most of the parameters. Low flow regime was highly sensitive to groundwater related parameters. Moreover, our approach is found to be useful in facilitating model development and calibration. This journal article describes hydrological modeling of climate change and land use changes on stream hydrology, and elucidates the importance of hydrological model construction in generating valid modeling results.

Acute airway effects of airborne formaldehyde in sensitized and non-sensitized mice housed in a dry or humid environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Søren Thor, E-mail: stl@nrcwe.dk; Wolkoff, Peder, E-mail: pwo@nrcwe.dk; Hammer, Maria, E-mail: mha@nrcwe.dk

We investigated the role of air humidity and allergic sensitization on the acute airway response to inhaled formaldehyde (FA) vapor. Mice were sensitized to the immunogen ovalbumin (OVA) by three intraperitoneal injections followed by two aerosol challenges, giving rise to allergic airway inflammation. Control mice were sham sensitized by saline injections and challenged by saline aerosols. Once sensitized, the mice were housed at high (85–89%) or low (< 10%) relative humidity, respectively for 48 h prior to a 60-min exposure to either 0.4, 1.8 or about 5 ppm FA. Before, during and after exposure, breathing parameters were monitored. These includedmore » the specific markers of nose and lung irritations as well as the expiratory flow rate, the latter being a marker of airflow limitation. The sensory irritation response in the upper airways was not affected by allergic inflammation or changes in humidity. At high relative humidity, the OVA-sensitized mice had a decreased expiratory airflow rate compared to the saline control mice after exposure to approximately 5 ppm FA. This is in accordance with the observations that asthmatics are more sensitive than non-asthmatics to higher concentrations of airway irritants including FA. In the dry environment, the opposite trend was seen; here, the saline control mice had a significantly decreased expiratory airflow rate compared to OVA-sensitized mice when exposed to 1.8 and 4 ppm FA. We speculate that increased mucus production in the OVA-sensitized mice has increased the “scrubber effect” in the nose, consequently protecting the conducting and lower airways. - Highlights: ► Role of air humidity and allergy on sensitivity to an airway irritant was studied. ► In the humid environment, allergy amplified the effects of formaldehyde. ► In the dry environment, allergy reduced the effect of formaldehyde. ► Neither allergy nor humidity changed the formaldehyde-induced nasal irritation.« less

The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

2015-11-02

Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Analysis of the sensitivity properties of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague.

PubMed

Buzby, Megan; Neckels, David; Antolin, Michael F; Estep, Donald

2008-09-06

Model sensitivity is a key to evaluation of mathematical models in ecology and evolution, especially in complex models with numerous parameters. In this paper, we use some recently developed methods for sensitivity analysis to study the parameter sensitivity of a model of vector-borne bubonic plague in a rodent population proposed by Keeling & Gilligan. The new sensitivity tools are based on a variational analysis involving the adjoint equation. The new approach provides a relatively inexpensive way to obtain derivative information about model output with respect to parameters. We use this approach to determine the sensitivity of a quantity of interest (the force of infection from rats and their fleas to humans) to various model parameters, determine a region over which linearization at a specific parameter reference point is valid, develop a global picture of the output surface, and search for maxima and minima in a given region in the parameter space.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

COSP for Windows: Strategies for Rapid Analyses of Cyclic Oxidation Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smialek, James L.; Auping, Judith V.

2002-01-01

COSP is a publicly available computer program that models the cyclic oxidation weight gain and spallation process. Inputs to the model include the selection of an oxidation growth law and a spalling geometry, plus oxide phase, growth rate, spall constant, and cycle duration parameters. Output includes weight change, the amounts of retained and spalled oxide, the total oxygen and metal consumed, and the terminal rates of weight loss and metal consumption. The present version is Windows based and can accordingly be operated conveniently while other applications remain open for importing experimental weight change data, storing model output data, or plotting model curves. Point-and-click operating features include multiple drop-down menus for input parameters, data importing, and quick, on-screen plots showing one selection of the six output parameters for up to 10 models. A run summary text lists various characteristic parameters that are helpful in describing cyclic behavior, such as the maximum weight change, the number of cycles to reach the maximum weight gain or zero weight change, the ratio of these, and the final rate of weight loss. The program includes save and print options as well as a help file. Families of model curves readily show the sensitivity to various input parameters. The cyclic behaviors of nickel aluminide (NiAl) and a complex superalloy are shown to be properly fitted by model curves. However, caution is always advised regarding the uniqueness claimed for any specific set of input parameters,

First third filling parameters of left ventricle assessed from gated equilibrium studies in patients with various heart diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adatepe, M.H.; Nichols, K.; Powell, O.M.

1984-01-01

The authors determined the first third filling fraction (1/3 FF), the maximum filling rate (1/3 FR) and the mean filling rate (1/3 MFR) for the first third diastolic filling period of the left ventricle in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), valvular heart disease (VHD), pericardial effusion (PE), cardiomyopathies (CM), chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) and in 5 normals-all from resting gated equilibrium studies. Parameters are calculated from the third order Fourier fit to the LV volume curve and its derivative. 1/3 FF% = 1/3 diastolic count - end systolic count / 1/3 diastolic count x 100. Patients with CADmore » are divided into two groups: Group I with normal ejection fraction (EF) and wall motion (WM); Group II with abnormal EF and WM. Results are shown in the table. Abnormal filling parameters are found not only in CAD but in VHD, PE and CM. The authors conclude that the first third LV filling parameters are sensitive but non-specific indicators of filling abnormalities caused by diverse etiologic factors. Abnormal first third filling parameters may occur in the presence of a normal resting EF and WM in CAD.« less

PMMA/PS coaxial electrospinning: a statistical analysis on processing parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, Shahrzad; Arefazar, Ahmad; Latifi, Masoud

2017-08-01

Coaxial electrospinning, as a versatile method for producing core-shell fibers, is known to be very sensitive to two classes of influential factors including material and processing parameters. Although coaxial electrospinning has been the focus of many studies, the effects of processing parameters on the outcomes of this method have not yet been well investigated. A good knowledge of the impacts of processing parameters and their interactions on coaxial electrospinning can make it possible to better control and optimize this process. Hence, in this study, the statistical technique of response surface method (RSM) using the design of experiments on four processing factors of voltage, distance, core and shell flow rates was applied. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), oil immersion and Fluorescent microscopy were used to characterize fiber morphology. The core and shell diameters of fibers were measured and the effects of all factors and their interactions were discussed. Two polynomial models with acceptable R-squares were proposed to describe the core and shell diameters as functions of the processing parameters. Voltage and distance were recognized as the most significant and influential factors on shell diameter, while core diameter was mainly under the influence of core and shell flow rates besides the voltage.

An analysis of sensitivity of CLIMEX parameters in mapping species potential distribution and the broad-scale changes observed with minor variations in parameters values: an investigation using open-field Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira; Kumar, Lalit; Shabani, Farzin; Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho

2018-04-01

A sensitivity analysis can categorize levels of parameter influence on a model's output. Identifying parameters having the most influence facilitates establishing the best values for parameters of models, providing useful implications in species modelling of crops and associated insect pests. The aim of this study was to quantify the response of species models through a CLIMEX sensitivity analysis. Using open-field Solanum lycopersicum and Neoleucinodes elegantalis distribution records, and 17 fitting parameters, including growth and stress parameters, comparisons were made in model performance by altering one parameter value at a time, in comparison to the best-fit parameter values. Parameters that were found to have a greater effect on the model results are termed "sensitive". Through the use of two species, we show that even when the Ecoclimatic Index has a major change through upward or downward parameter value alterations, the effect on the species is dependent on the selection of suitability categories and regions of modelling. Two parameters were shown to have the greatest sensitivity, dependent on the suitability categories of each species in the study. Results enhance user understanding of which climatic factors had a greater impact on both species distributions in our model, in terms of suitability categories and areas, when parameter values were perturbed by higher or lower values, compared to the best-fit parameter values. Thus, the sensitivity analyses have the potential to provide additional information for end users, in terms of improving management, by identifying the climatic variables that are most sensitive.

Sensitivity analysis of conservative and reactive stream transient storage models applied to field data from multiple-reach experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gooseff, M.N.; Bencala, K.E.; Scott, D.T.; Runkel, R.L.; McKnight, Diane M.

2005-01-01

The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used in studies of stream solute transport and fate, with an increasing emphasis on reactive solute transport. In this study we perform sensitivity analyses of a conservative TSM and two different reactive solute transport models (RSTM), one that includes first-order decay in the stream and the storage zone, and a second that considers sorption of a reactive solute on streambed sediments. Two previously analyzed data sets are examined with a focus on the reliability of these RSTMs in characterizing stream and storage zone solute reactions. Sensitivities of simulations to parameters within and among reaches, parameter coefficients of variation, and correlation coefficients are computed and analyzed. Our results indicate that (1) simulated values have the greatest sensitivity to parameters within the same reach, (2) simulated values are also sensitive to parameters in reaches immediately upstream and downstream (inter-reach sensitivity), (3) simulated values have decreasing sensitivity to parameters in reaches farther downstream, and (4) in-stream reactive solute data provide adequate data to resolve effective storage zone reaction parameters, given the model formulations. Simulations of reactive solutes are shown to be equally sensitive to transport parameters and effective reaction parameters of the model, evidence of the control of physical transport on reactive solute dynamics. Similar to conservative transport analysis, reactive solute simulations appear to be most sensitive to data collected during the rising and falling limb of the concentration breakthrough curve. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinematic sensitivity of robot manipulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vuskovic, Marko I.

1989-01-01

Kinematic sensitivity vectors and matrices for open-loop, n degrees-of-freedom manipulators are derived. First-order sensitivity vectors are defined as partial derivatives of the manipulator's position and orientation with respect to its geometrical parameters. The four-parameter kinematic model is considered, as well as the five-parameter model in case of nominally parallel joint axes. Sensitivity vectors are expressed in terms of coordinate axes of manipulator frames. Second-order sensitivity vectors, the partial derivatives of first-order sensitivity vectors, are also considered. It is shown that second-order sensitivity vectors can be expressed as vector products of the first-order sensitivity vectors.

Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fang; Winijkul, Ekbordin; Bond, Tami C.; Streets, David G.

2014-04-01

Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan et al., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called “superemitters”, and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030.

Testing Photoionization Calculations Using Chandra X-ray Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallman, Tim

2008-01-01

A great deal of work has been devoted to the accumulation of accurate quantities describing atomic processes for use in analysis of astrophysical spectra. But in many situations of interest the interpretation of a quantity which is observed, such as a line flux, depends on the results of a modeling- or spectrum synthesis code. The results of such a code depends in turn on many atomic rates or cross sections, and the sensitivity of the observable quantity on the various rates and cross sections may be non-linear and if so cannot easily be derived analytically. In such cases the most practical approach to understanding the sensitivity of observables to atomic cross sections is to perform numerical experiments, by calculating models with various rates perturbed by random (but known) factors. In addition, it is useful to compare the results of such experiments with some sample observations, in order to focus attention on the rates which are of the greatest relevance to real observations. In this paper I will present some attempts to carry out this program, focussing on two sample datasets taken with the Chandra HETG. I will discuss the sensitivity of synthetic spectra to atomic data affecting ionization balance, temperature, and line opacity or emissivity, and discuss the implications for the ultimate goal of inferring astrophysical parameters.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of land surface parameters using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, Eleonora M.; Nijssen, Bart; Wagener, Thorsten

2007-06-01

Current land surface models use increasingly complex descriptions of the processes that they represent. Increase in complexity is accompanied by an increase in the number of model parameters, many of which cannot be measured directly at large spatial scales. A Monte Carlo framework was used to evaluate the sensitivity and identifiability of ten parameters controlling surface and subsurface runoff generation in the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Using the Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT), parameter sensitivities were studied for four U.S. watersheds along a hydroclimatic gradient, based on a 20-year data set developed for the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Results showed that simulated streamflows are sensitive to three parameters when evaluated with different objective functions. Sensitivity of the infiltration parameter (b) and the drainage parameter (exp) were strongly related to the hydroclimatic gradient. The placement of vegetation roots played an important role in the sensitivity of model simulations to the thickness of the second soil layer (thick2). Overparameterization was found in the base flow formulation indicating that a simplified version could be implemented. Parameter sensitivity was more strongly dictated by climatic gradients than by changes in soil properties. Results showed how a complex model can be reduced to a more parsimonious form, leading to a more identifiable model with an increased chance of successful regionalization to ungauged basins. Although parameter sensitivities are strictly valid for VIC, this model is representative of a wider class of macroscale hydrological models. Consequently, the results and methodology will have applicability to other hydrological models.

Are quantitative sensitivity analysis methods always reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2016-12-01

Physical parameterizations developed to represent subgrid-scale physical processes include various uncertain parameters, leading to large uncertainties in today's Earth System Models (ESMs). Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is an efficient approach to quantitatively determine how the uncertainty of the evaluation metric can be apportioned to each parameter. Also, SA can identify the most influential parameters, as a result to reduce the high dimensional parametric space. In previous studies, some SA-based approaches, such as Sobol' and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing (FAST), divide the parameters into sensitive and insensitive groups respectively. The first one is reserved but the other is eliminated for certain scientific study. However, these approaches ignore the disappearance of the interactive effects between the reserved parameters and the eliminated ones, which are also part of the total sensitive indices. Therefore, the wrong sensitive parameters might be identified by these traditional SA approaches and tools. In this study, we propose a dynamic global sensitivity analysis method (DGSAM), which iteratively removes the least important parameter until there are only two parameters left. We use the CLM-CASA, a global terrestrial model, as an example to verify our findings with different sample sizes ranging from 7000 to 280000. The result shows DGSAM has abilities to identify more influential parameters, which is confirmed by parameter calibration experiments using four popular optimization methods. For example, optimization using Top3 parameters filtered by DGSAM could achieve substantial improvement against Sobol' by 10%. Furthermore, the current computational cost for calibration has been reduced to 1/6 of the original one. In future, it is necessary to explore alternative SA methods emphasizing parameter interactions.

A Multi-scale Approach for CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis in CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Viswanathan, H. S.; Middleton, R. S.; Pan, F.; Ampomah, W.; Yang, C.; Jia, W.; Lee, S. Y.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.; Grigg, R.; White, M. D.

2015-12-01

Using carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce carbon sequestration costs in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multi-scale approach to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis for understanding CO2 storage potential within an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and transport in the Marrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2 injection rate, CO2 first breakthrough time, CO2 production rate, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil and CH4 production, and water injection and production rates. A global sensitivity analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/CH4 recovery rates. The well spacing (the distance between the injection and production wells) and the sequence of alternating CO2 and water injection are the major operational parameters for designing an effective five-spot CO2-EOR pattern. The response surface analysis shows that net CO2 injection rate increases with the increasing reservoir thickness, permeability, and porosity. The oil/CH4 production rates are positively correlated to reservoir permeability, porosity and thickness, but negatively correlated to the initial water saturation. The mean and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying the uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. The results from this study provide useful insights for understanding the CO2 storage potential and the corresponding risks of commercial-scale CO2-EOR fields.

Secure chaotic transmission of electrocardiography signals with acousto-optic modulation under profiled beam propagation.

PubMed

Almehmadi, Fares S; Chatterjee, Monish R

2015-01-10

Electrocardiography (ECG) signals are used for both medical purposes and identifying individuals. It is often necessary to encrypt this highly sensitive information before it is transmitted over any channel. A closed-loop acousto-optic hybrid device acting as a chaotic modulator is applied to ECG signals to achieve this encryption. Recently improved modeling of this approach using profiled optical beams has shown it to be very sensitive to key parameters that characterize the encryption and decryption process, exhibiting its potential for secure transmission of analog and digital signals. Here the encryption and decryption is demonstrated for ECG signals, both analog and digital versions, illustrating strong encryption without significant distortion. Performance analysis pertinent to both analog and digital transmission of the ECG waveform is also carried out using output signal-to-noise, signal-to-distortion, and bit-error-rate measures relative to the key parameters and presence of channel noise in the system.

Growth and substrate consumption of Nitrobacter agilis cells immobilized in carrageenan: part 1. Dynamic modeling.

PubMed

de Gooijer, C D; Wijffels, R H; Tramper, J

1991-07-01

The modeling of the growth of Nitrobacter agilis cell immobilized in kappa-carrageenan is presented. A detailed description is given of the modeling of internal diffusion and growth of cells in the support matrix in addition to external mass transfer resistance. The model predicts the substrate and biomass profiles in the support as well as the macroscopic oxygen consumption rate of the immobilized biocatalyst in time. The model is tested by experiments with continuously operated airlift loop reactors containing cells immobilized in kappa-carrageenan. The model describes experimental data very well. It is clearly shown that external mass transfer may not be neglected. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of the parameters at their values during the experiments revealed that apart from the radius of the spheres and the substrate bulk concentration, the external mass transfer resistance coefficient is the most sensitive parameter for our case.

Hot and steady: Elevated temperatures do not enhance muscle disuse atrophy during prolonged aestivation in the ectotherm Cyclorana alboguttata.

PubMed

Young, K M; Cramp, R L; Franklin, C E

2013-02-01

Animals that undergo prolonged dormancy experience minimal muscle disuse atrophy (MDA) compared to animals subjected to artificial immobilisation over shorter timeframes. An association between oxidative stress and MDA suggests that metabolic depression presumably affords dormant animals some protection against muscle disuse. Because aerobic metabolism is temperature sensitive, we proposed that MDA in dormant (aestivating) ectotherms would be enhanced at elevated temperatures. In the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata, the thermal sensitivity of skeletal muscle metabolic rate is muscle-specific. We proposed that the degree of atrophy experienced during aestivation would correlate with the thermal sensitivity of muscle metabolic rate such that muscles with a relatively high metabolic rate at high temperatures would experience more disuse atrophy. To test this hypothesis, we examined the effect of temperature and aestivation on the extent of MDA in two functionally different muscles: the M. gastrocnemius (jumping muscle) and M. iliofibularis (non-jumping muscle), in C. alboguttata aestivating at 24 or 30 °C for 6 months. We compared a range of morphological parameters from muscle cross-sections stained with succinic dehydrogenase to show that muscle-specific patterns of disuse atrophy were consistent with the relative rates of oxygen consumption of those muscle types. However, despite muscle-specific differences in thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate, aestivation temperature did not influence the extent of atrophy in either muscle. Our results suggest that the muscles of frogs aestivating at high temperatures are defended against additional atrophy ensuring protection of muscle function during long periods of immobilisation. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ring Laser Gyro Resonator Design

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-06-20

vibration environment could cause errors in measured RLG rotation rates due to vibration (tilt) of the resonator mirrors . Vibration-induced mirror tilt...the RLG resonator design theoretically and calculated pertinent parameters such as the beam diameter at the aperture, cavity mirror alignment...sensitivities, and power loss due to aperture occlusion. The mirror vibration levels required to significantly affect the laser power were then calculated for

Importance analysis for Hudson River PCB transport and fate model parameters using robust sensitivity studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, S.; Toll, J.; Cothern, K.

1995-12-31

The authors have performed robust sensitivity studies of the physico-chemical Hudson River PCB model PCHEPM to identify the parameters and process uncertainties contributing the most to uncertainty in predictions of water column and sediment PCB concentrations, over the time period 1977--1991 in one segment of the lower Hudson River. The term ``robust sensitivity studies`` refers to the use of several sensitivity analysis techniques to obtain a more accurate depiction of the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty. Local sensitivity analysis provided data on the sensitivity of PCB concentration estimates to small perturbations in nominal parameter values. Range sensitivity analysismore » provided information about the magnitude of prediction uncertainty associated with each input uncertainty. Rank correlation analysis indicated which parameters had the most dominant influence on model predictions. Factorial analysis identified important interactions among model parameters. Finally, term analysis looked at the aggregate influence of combinations of parameters representing physico-chemical processes. The authors scored the results of the local and range sensitivity and rank correlation analyses. The authors considered parameters that scored high on two of the three analyses to be important contributors to PCB concentration prediction uncertainty, and treated them probabilistically in simulations. They also treated probabilistically parameters identified in the factorial analysis as interacting with important parameters. The authors used the term analysis to better understand how uncertain parameters were influencing the PCB concentration predictions. The importance analysis allowed us to reduce the number of parameters to be modeled probabilistically from 16 to 5. This reduced the computational complexity of Monte Carlo simulations, and more importantly, provided a more lucid depiction of prediction uncertainty and its causes.« less

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Dynamic MR imaging of soft tissue tumors with assessment of the rate and character of lesion enhancement.

PubMed

Tacikowska, Małgorzata

2002-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the diagnostic usefulness of dynamic MRI with determination of the coefficient of enhancement rate and the character of tumor enhancement, and to assess both parameters in the differentiation of malignant lesions. The material consisted of 45 patients (30 sarcomas, 15 non-malignant lesions), age 16-64 years. MRI was done using an Elscint 2T unit, gradient echo techniques, apex angle 80 degrees. The repetition time (TR) was 80-200 ms, the echo time (TE) was 2-6 ms, 1 excitation; the acquisition time (TA) was 70-80 ms. The coefficient of tissue enhancement rate was calculated in the region of interest, and expressed as percent per second (erc%/s). The limit value of erc%/s was determined. The sensitivity and specificity of MRI were calculated in the differentiation of malignant tumors. The method of contrast filling of the tumors was assessed in successive phases after administration of gadolinium Gd-DTPA. Dynamic MRI with determination of the index of tumor enhancement rate is highly sensitive (93%) and specific (73%) in the differentiation of malignant and benign lesions. The usefulness of the assessment of tumor enhancement character was not confirmed, since the sensitivity and specificity were 73% and 33%. Dynamic MRI with determination of erc%/s and tumor enhancement character is highly sensitive (93%) and specific (87%). Dynamic MRI with determination of erc%/s and tumor enhancement character is the best method for differential diagnosis.

A new approach to identify the sensitivity and importance of physical parameters combination within numerical models using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Guodong; Mu, Mu

2017-05-01

An important source of uncertainty, which causes further uncertainty in numerical simulations, is that residing in the parameters describing physical processes in numerical models. Therefore, finding a subset among numerous physical parameters in numerical models in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, which are relatively more sensitive and important parameters, and reducing the errors in the physical parameters in this subset would be a far more efficient way to reduce the uncertainties involved in simulations. In this context, we present a new approach based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) method. The approach provides a framework to ascertain the subset of those relatively more sensitive and important parameters among the physical parameters. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamical global vegetation model was utilized to test the validity of the new approach in China. The results imply that nonlinear interactions among parameters play a key role in the identification of sensitive parameters in arid and semi-arid regions of China compared to those in northern, northeastern, and southern China. The uncertainties in the numerical simulations were reduced considerably by reducing the errors of the subset of relatively more sensitive and important parameters. The results demonstrate that our approach not only offers a new route to identify relatively more sensitive and important physical parameters but also that it is viable to then apply "target observations" to reduce the uncertainties in model parameters.

Design constraints of the LST fine guidance sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wissinger, A. B.

1975-01-01

The LST Fine Guidance Sensor design is shaped by the rate of occurrence of suitable guide stars, the competition for telescope focal plane space with the Science Instruments, and the sensitivity of candidate image motion sensors. The relationship between these parameters is presented, and sensitivity to faint stars is shown to be of prime importance. An interferometric technique of image motion sensing is shown to have improved sensitivity and, therefore, a reduced focal plane area requirement in comparison with other candidate techniques (image-splitting prism and image dissector tube techniques). Another design requirement is speed in acquiring the guide star in order to maximize the time available for science observations. The design constraints are shown parametrically, and modelling results are presented.

MOVES sensitivity analysis update : Transportation Research Board Summer Meeting 2012 : ADC-20 Air Quality Committee

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION : Evaluation Parameters : EPAs Sensitivity Analysis : Comparison to Baseline Case : MOVES Sensitivity Run Specification : MOVES Sensitivity Input Parameters : Results : Uses of Study

Societal costs in displaced transverse olecranon fractures: using decision analysis tools to find the most cost-effective strategy between tension band wiring and locked plating.

PubMed

Francis, Tittu; Washington, Travis; Srivastava, Karan; Moutzouros, Vasilios; Makhni, Eric C; Hakeos, William

2017-11-01

Tension band wiring (TBW) and locked plating are common treatment options for Mayo IIA olecranon fractures. Clinical trials have shown excellent functional outcomes with both techniques. Although TBW implants are significantly less expensive than a locked olecranon plate, TBW often requires an additional operation for implant removal. To choose the most cost-effective treatment strategy, surgeons must understand how implant costs and return to the operating room influence the most cost-effective strategy. This cost-effective analysis study explored the optimal treatment strategies by using decision analysis tools. An expected-value decision tree was constructed to estimate costs based on the 2 implant choices. Values for critical variables, such as implant removal rate, were obtained from the literature. A Monte Carlo simulation consisting of 100,000 trials was used to incorporate variability in medical costs and implant removal rates. Sensitivity analysis and strategy tables were used to show how different variables influence the most cost-effective strategy. TBW was the most cost-effective strategy, with a cost savings of approximately $1300. TBW was also the dominant strategy by being the most cost-effective solution in 63% of the Monte Carlo trials. Sensitivity analysis identified implant costs for plate fixation and surgical costs for implant removal as the most sensitive parameters influencing the cost-effective strategy. Strategy tables showed the most cost-effective solution as 2 parameters vary simultaneously. TBW is the most cost-effective strategy in treating Mayo IIA olecranon fractures despite a higher rate of return to the operating room. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ischemia reperfusion dysfunction changes model-estimated kinetics of myofilament interaction due to inotropic drugs in isolated hearts

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Samhita S; Camara, Amadou KS; Ropella, Kristina M; Audi, Said H; Riess, Matthias L; Pagel, Paul S; Stowe, David F

2006-01-01

Background The phase-space relationship between simultaneously measured myoplasmic [Ca2+] and isovolumetric left ventricular pressure (LVP) in guinea pig intact hearts is altered by ischemic and inotropic interventions. Our objective was to mathematically model this phase-space relationship between [Ca2+] and LVP with a focus on the changes in cross-bridge kinetics and myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity responsible for alterations in Ca2+-contraction coupling due to inotropic drugs in the presence and absence of ischemia reperfusion (IR) injury. Methods We used a four state computational model to predict LVP using experimentally measured, averaged myoplasmic [Ca2+] transients from unpaced, isolated guinea pig hearts as the model input. Values of model parameters were estimated by minimizing the error between experimentally measured LVP and model-predicted LVP. Results We found that IR injury resulted in reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity, and decreased cross-bridge association and dissociation rates. Dopamine (8 μM) reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity before, but enhanced it after ischemia while improving cross-bridge kinetics before and after IR injury. Dobutamine (4 μM) reduced myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity while improving cross-bridge kinetics before and after ischemia. Digoxin (1 μM) increased myofilament Ca2+ sensitivity and cross-bridge kinetics after but not before ischemia. Levosimendan (1 μM) enhanced myofilament Ca2+ affinity and cross-bridge kinetics only after ischemia. Conclusion Estimated model parameters reveal mechanistic changes in Ca2+-contraction coupling due to IR injury, specifically the inefficient utilization of Ca2+ for contractile function with diastolic contracture (increase in resting diastolic LVP). The model parameters also reveal drug-induced improvements in Ca2+-contraction coupling before and after IR injury. PMID:16512898

Sensitivity of the two-dimensional shearless mixing layer to the initial turbulent kinetic energy and integral length scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathali, M.; Deshiri, M. Khoshnami

2016-04-01

The shearless mixing layer is generated from the interaction of two homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) fields with different integral scales ℓ1 and ℓ2 and different turbulent kinetic energies E1 and E2. In this study, the sensitivity of temporal evolutions of two-dimensional, incompressible shearless mixing layers to the parametric variations of ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 is investigated. The sensitivity methodology is based on the nonintrusive approach; using direct numerical simulation and generalized polynomial chaos expansion. The analysis is carried out at Reℓ 1=90 for the high-energy HIT region and different integral length scale ratios 1 /4 ≤ℓ1/ℓ2≤4 and turbulent kinetic energy ratios 1 ≤E1/E2≤30 . It is found that the most influential parameter on the variability of the mixing layer evolution is the turbulent kinetic energy while variations of the integral length scale show a negligible influence on the flow field variability. A significant level of anisotropy and intermittency is observed in both large and small scales. In particular, it is found that large scales have higher levels of intermittency and sensitivity to the variations of ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 compared to the small scales. Reconstructed response surfaces of the flow field intermittency and the turbulent penetration depth show monotonic dependence on ℓ1/ℓ2 and E1/E2 . The mixing layer growth rate and the mixing efficiency both show sensitive dependence on the initial condition parameters. However, the probability density function of these quantities shows relatively small solution variations in response to the variations of the initial condition parameters.

Effect of negative emotions evoked by light, noise and taste on trigeminal thermal sensitivity.

PubMed

Yang, Guangju; Baad-Hansen, Lene; Wang, Kelun; Xie, Qiu-Fei; Svensson, Peter

2014-11-07

Patients with migraine often have impaired somatosensory function and experience headache attacks triggered by exogenous stimulus, such as light, sound or taste. This study aimed to assess the influence of three controlled conditioning stimuli (visual, auditory and gustatory stimuli and combined stimuli) on affective state and thermal sensitivity in healthy human participants. All participants attended four experimental sessions with visual, auditory and gustatory conditioning stimuli and combination of all stimuli, in a randomized sequence. In each session, the somatosensory sensitivity was tested in the perioral region with use of thermal stimuli with and without the conditioning stimuli. Positive and Negative Affect States (PANAS) were assessed before and after the tests. Subject based ratings of the conditioning and test stimuli in addition to skin temperature and heart rate as indicators of arousal responses were collected in real time during the tests. The three conditioning stimuli all induced significant increases in negative PANAS scores (paired t-test, P ≤0.016). Compared with baseline, the increases were in a near dose-dependent manner during visual and auditory conditioning stimulation. No significant effects of any single conditioning stimuli were observed on trigeminal thermal sensitivity (P ≥0.051) or arousal parameters (P ≥0.057). The effects of combined conditioning stimuli on subjective ratings (P ≤0.038) and negative affect (P = 0.011) were stronger than those of single stimuli. All three conditioning stimuli provided a simple way to evoke a negative affective state without physical arousal or influence on trigeminal thermal sensitivity. Multisensory conditioning had stronger effects but also failed to modulate thermal sensitivity, suggesting that so-called exogenous trigger stimuli e.g. bright light, noise, unpleasant taste in patients with migraine may require a predisposed or sensitized nervous system.

Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Head to Locations of Model Boundaries

DOE PAGES

Lu, Zhiming

2018-01-30

Sensitivity analysis is an important component of many model activities in hydrology. Numerous studies have been conducted in calculating various sensitivities. Most of these sensitivity analysis focus on the sensitivity of state variables (e.g. hydraulic head) to parameters representing medium properties such as hydraulic conductivity or prescribed values such as constant head or flux at boundaries, while few studies address the sensitivity of the state variables to some shape parameters or design parameters that control the model domain. Instead, these shape parameters are typically assumed to be known in the model. In this study, based on the flow equation, wemore » derive the equation (and its associated initial and boundary conditions) for sensitivity of hydraulic head to shape parameters using continuous sensitivity equation (CSE) approach. These sensitivity equations can be solved numerically in general or analytically in some simplified cases. Finally, the approach has been demonstrated through two examples and the results are compared favorably to those from analytical solutions or numerical finite difference methods with perturbed model domains, while numerical shortcomings of the finite difference method are avoided.« less

Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Head to Locations of Model Boundaries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Zhiming

Sensitivity analysis is an important component of many model activities in hydrology. Numerous studies have been conducted in calculating various sensitivities. Most of these sensitivity analysis focus on the sensitivity of state variables (e.g. hydraulic head) to parameters representing medium properties such as hydraulic conductivity or prescribed values such as constant head or flux at boundaries, while few studies address the sensitivity of the state variables to some shape parameters or design parameters that control the model domain. Instead, these shape parameters are typically assumed to be known in the model. In this study, based on the flow equation, wemore » derive the equation (and its associated initial and boundary conditions) for sensitivity of hydraulic head to shape parameters using continuous sensitivity equation (CSE) approach. These sensitivity equations can be solved numerically in general or analytically in some simplified cases. Finally, the approach has been demonstrated through two examples and the results are compared favorably to those from analytical solutions or numerical finite difference methods with perturbed model domains, while numerical shortcomings of the finite difference method are avoided.« less

Evolution of Geometric Sensitivity Derivatives from Computer Aided Design Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, William T.; Lazzara, David; Haimes, Robert

2010-01-01

The generation of design parameter sensitivity derivatives is required for gradient-based optimization. Such sensitivity derivatives are elusive at best when working with geometry defined within the solid modeling context of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems. Solid modeling CAD systems are often proprietary and always complex, thereby necessitating ad hoc procedures to infer parameter sensitivity. A new perspective is presented that makes direct use of the hierarchical associativity of CAD features to trace their evolution and thereby track design parameter sensitivity. In contrast to ad hoc methods, this method provides a more concise procedure following the model design intent and determining the sensitivity of CAD geometry directly to its respective defining parameters.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Land Surface Model NOAH-MP for Different Model Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Juliane; Thober, Stephan; Samaniego, Luis; Branch, Oliver; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Clark, Martyn; Attinger, Sabine; Kumar, Rohini; Cuntz, Matthias

2015-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSMs) use a plenitude of process descriptions to represent the carbon, energy and water cycles. They are highly complex and computationally expensive. Practitioners, however, are often only interested in specific outputs of the model such as latent heat or surface runoff. In model applications like parameter estimation, the most important parameters are then chosen by experience or expert knowledge. Hydrologists interested in surface runoff therefore chose mostly soil parameters while biogeochemists interested in carbon fluxes focus on vegetation parameters. However, this might lead to the omission of parameters that are important, for example, through strong interactions with the parameters chosen. It also happens during model development that some process descriptions contain fixed values, which are supposedly unimportant parameters. However, these hidden parameters remain normally undetected although they might be highly relevant during model calibration. Sensitivity analyses are used to identify informative model parameters for a specific model output. Standard methods for sensitivity analysis such as Sobol indexes require large amounts of model evaluations, specifically in case of many model parameters. We hence propose to first use a recently developed inexpensive sequential screening method based on Elementary Effects that has proven to identify the relevant informative parameters. This reduces the number parameters and therefore model evaluations for subsequent analyses such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration. In this study, we quantify parametric sensitivities of the land surface model NOAH-MP that is a state-of-the-art LSM and used at regional scale as the land surface scheme of the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). NOAH-MP contains multiple process parameterizations yielding a considerable amount of parameters (˜ 100). Sensitivities for the three model outputs (a) surface runoff, (b) soil drainage and (c) latent heat are calculated on twelve Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments ranging in size from 1020 to 4421 km2. This allows investigation of parametric sensitivities for distinct hydro-climatic characteristics, emphasizing different land-surface processes. The sequential screening identifies the most informative parameters of NOAH-MP for different model output variables. The number of parameters is reduced substantially for all of the three model outputs to approximately 25. The subsequent Sobol method quantifies the sensitivities of these informative parameters. The study demonstrates the existence of sensitive, important parameters in almost all parts of the model irrespective of the considered output. Soil parameters, e.g., are informative for all three output variables whereas plant parameters are not only informative for latent heat but also for soil drainage because soil drainage is strongly coupled to transpiration through the soil water balance. These results contrast to the choice of only soil parameters in hydrological studies and only plant parameters in biogeochemical ones. The sequential screening identified several important hidden parameters that carry large sensitivities and have hence to be included during model calibration.

Strain rate sensitivity of a TRIP-assisted dual-phase high-entropy alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Silva; Li, Zhiming; Pradeep, K. G.; Raabe, Dierk

2018-05-01

Dual-phase high-entropy alloys (DP-HEAs) with transformation induced plasticity (TRIP) have an excellent strength-ductility combination. To reveal their strain-rate sensitivity and hence further understand the corresponding deformation mechanisms, we investigated the tensile behavior and microstructural evolution of a typical TRIP-DP-HEA (Fe50Mn30Co10Cr10, at. %) under different strain rates (i.e., 5 × 10-3 s-1, 1 × 10-3 s-1, 5 × 10-4 s-1 and 1 × 10-4 s-1) at room temperature. The strain rate range was confined to this regime in order to apply the digital image correlation technique for probing the local strain evolution during tensile deformation at high resolution and to correlate it to the microstructure evolution. Grain size effects of the face-centered cubic (FCC) matrix and the volume fractions of the hexagonal-close packed (HCP) phase prior to deformation were also considered. The results show that within the explored strain rate regime the TRIP-DP-HEA has a fairly low strain rate sensitivity parameter within the range from 0.004 to 0.04, which is significantly lower than that of DP and TRIP steels. Samples with varying grain sizes (e.g., 2.8 μm and 38 μm) and starting HCP phase fractions (e.g., 25% and 72%) at different strain rates show similar deformation mechanisms, i.e., dislocation plasticity and strain-induced transformation from the FCC matrix to the HCP phase. The low strain rate sensitivity is attributed to the observed dominant displacive transformation mechanism. Also, the coarse-grained alloy samples with a very high starting HCP phase fraction ( 72%) prior to deformation show very good ductility with a total elongation of 60%, suggesting that both, the initial and the transformed HCP phase in the TRIP-DP-HEA are ductile and deform further via dislocation slip at the different strain rates which were probed.

Role of a looming-sensitive neuron in triggering the defense behavior of the praying mantis Tenodera aridifolia.

PubMed

Sato, Keiichiro; Yamawaki, Yoshifumi

2014-08-01

In responses to looming objects, the praying mantis shows a defense behavior, which consists of retracting forelegs under the prothorax. The role of a looming-sensitive neuron in triggering this behavior was investigated by simultaneously recording the activity and behavioral responses of the neuron. The mantis initiated the defense behavior earlier in response to larger and slower looming stimuli. The time remaining to collision at defense initiation was linearly correlated with the ratio of the half-size of an approaching object to its speed (l/|v|), suggesting that the defense behavior occurred a fixed delay after the stimuli had reached a fixed angular threshold. Furthermore, the results suggested that high-frequency spikes of the looming-sensitive neuron were involved in triggering the defense behavior: the distribution of maximum firing rate for trials with defense was shifted to larger rates compared with trials without defense; the firing rate of the neuron exceeded 150 Hz ∼100 ms before the defense initiation regardless of stimulus parameters; when a looming stimulus ceased approach prematurely, high-frequency spikes were removed, and the occurrence of defense was reduced. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Comparison of NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11 oxidation kinetics in air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jo Jo; Ghosh, Tushar K.; Loyalka, Sudarshan K.

2018-03-01

The oxidation rates of several nuclear-grade graphites, NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11, were measured in air using thermogravimetry. Kinetic parameters and oxidation behavior for each grade were compared by coke type, filler grain size and microstructure. The thickness of the oxidized layer for each grade was determined by layer peeling and direct density measurements. The results for NBG-17 and IG-11 were compared with those available in the literature and our recently reported results for NBG-18 and IG-110 oxidation in air. The finer-grained graphites IG-110 and IG-11 were more oxidized than medium-grained NBG-18 and NBG-17 because of deeper oxidant penetration, higher porosity and higher probability of available active sites. Variation in experimental conditions also had a marked effect on the reported kinetic parameters by several studies. Kinetic parameters such as activation energy and transition temperature were sensitive to air flow rates as well as sample size and geometry.

A fuzzy discrete harmony search algorithm applied to annual cost reduction in radial distribution systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameli, Kazem; Alfi, Alireza; Aghaebrahimi, Mohammadreza

2016-09-01

Similarly to other optimization algorithms, harmony search (HS) is quite sensitive to the tuning parameters. Several variants of the HS algorithm have been developed to decrease the parameter-dependency character of HS. This article proposes a novel version of the discrete harmony search (DHS) algorithm, namely fuzzy discrete harmony search (FDHS), for optimizing capacitor placement in distribution systems. In the FDHS, a fuzzy system is employed to dynamically adjust two parameter values, i.e. harmony memory considering rate and pitch adjusting rate, with respect to normalized mean fitness of the harmony memory. The key aspect of FDHS is that it needs substantially fewer iterations to reach convergence in comparison with classical discrete harmony search (CDHS). To the authors' knowledge, this is the first application of DHS to specify appropriate capacitor locations and their best amounts in the distribution systems. Simulations are provided for 10-, 34-, 85- and 141-bus distribution systems using CDHS and FDHS. The results show the effectiveness of FDHS over previous related studies.

Selection of sampling rate for digital control of aircrafts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, P.; Powell, J. D.

1974-01-01

The considerations in selecting the sample rates for digital control of aircrafts are identified and evaluated using the optimal discrete method. A high performance aircraft model which includes a bending mode and wind gusts was studied. The following factors which influence the selection of the sampling rates were identified: (1) the time and roughness response to control inputs; (2) the response to external disturbances; and (3) the sensitivity to variations of parameters. It was found that the time response to a control input and the response to external disturbances limit the selection of the sampling rate. The optimal discrete regulator, the steady state Kalman filter, and the mean response to external disturbances are calculated.

A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey interaction model and parameter identifiability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Meghwani, Suraj S.; Thakur, Manoj; Abbas, Syed

2018-01-01

In this work, bifurcation and a systematic approach for estimation of identifiable parameters of a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with Crowley-Martin functional response and prey refuge is discussed. Global asymptotic stability is discussed by applying fluctuation lemma. The system undergoes into Hopf bifurcation with respect to parameters intrinsic growth rate of predators (s) and prey reserve (m). The stability of Hopf bifurcation is also discussed by calculating Lyapunov number. The sensitivity analysis of the considered model system with respect to all variables is performed which also supports our theoretical study. To estimate the unknown parameter from the data, an optimization procedure (pseudo-random search algorithm) is adopted. System responses and phase plots for estimated parameters are also compared with true noise free data. It is found that the system dynamics with true set of parametric values is similar to the estimated parametric values. Numerical simulations are presented to substantiate the analytical findings.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Relationship between sedimentation rates and benthic impact on Maërl beds derived from fish farming in the Mediterranean.

PubMed

Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos; Belando, María Dolores; Marín-Guirao, Lázaro; Navarrete-Mier, Francisco; Marín, Arnaldo

2011-02-01

The aim of this work was to study the dispersion of particulate wastes derived from marine fish farming and correlate the data with the impact on the seabed. Carbon and nutrients were correlated with the physico-chemical parameters of the sediment and the benthic community structure. The sedimentation rates in the benthic system were 1.09, 0.09 and 0.13 g m⁻² day⁻¹ for particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate organic nitrogen (PON) and total phosphorus (TP), respectively. TP was a reliable parameter for establishing the spatial extent of the fish farm particulate wastes. Fish farming was seen to influence not only physico-chemical and biological parameters but also the functioning of the ecosystem from a trophic point of view, particularly affecting the grazers and the balance among the trophic groups. POC, PON and TP sedimentation dynamics reflected the physico-chemical status of the sediment along the distance gradient studied, while their impact on the benthic community extended further. Therefore, the level of fish farm impact on the benthic community might be underestimated if it is assessed by merely taking into account data obtained from waste dispersion rates. The benthic habitat beneath the fish farm, Maërl bed, was seen to be very sensitive to aquaculture impact compared with other unvegetated benthic habitats, with an estimated POC-carrying capacity to maintain current diversity of 0.087 g C m⁻² day⁻¹ (only 36% greater than the basal POC input). Environmental protection agencies should define different aquaculture waste load thresholds for different benthic communities affected by finfish farming, according to their particular degree of sensitivity, in order to maintain natural ecosystem functions. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of grounding line dynamics to basal conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Brondex, J.; Chauveau, G.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Durand, G.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, the dynamical contribution of Antarctica to future sea level rise is still tainted by high uncertainties. Among the processes entering these uncertainties is the link between basal hydrology, friction and grounding line dynamics. Recent works have shown how sensitive is the response of the grounding line retreat to the choice of the form of the friction law. Indeed, starting from the same initial state, grounding line retreat rates can range over almost two orders of magnitude depending on the friction law formulation.Here, we use a phenomenological law that depends on the water pressure and allows a continuous transition from a Weertman-type friction at low water pressure to a Coulomb-type friction at high water pressure. This friction law depends on two main parameters that control the Weertman and Coulomb regimes. The range of values for these two parameters is only weakly physically constrained, and it can be shown that, for a given basal shear stress, different couples of parameters can conduct to the same sliding velocity. In addition, we show that close to the grounding line where basal water pressure is high, determining these two parameters might conduct to an ill-posed inverse problem with no solution.The aim of this presentation is to discuss a methodology to guide the choice of the two friction parameters and explore the sensitivity of the grounding line dynamics to this initial choice. We present results obtained both on a synthetic configuration used by the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison exercise and for the Amundsen sea sector using the experiments proposed by InitMIP-Antarctica, the first exercise in a series of ISMIP6 ice-sheet model intercomparison activities.

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

PubMed Central

Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

2015-01-01

Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and mean absolute error (MAE). PMID:25961289

Identifying data gaps and prioritizing restoration strategies for Fremont cottonwood using linked geomorphic and population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, E. B.; Stella, J. C.; Fremier, A. K.

2009-12-01

Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii) is an important component of semi-arid riparian ecosystems throughout western North America, but its populations are in decline due to flow regulation. Achieving a balance between human resource needs and riparian ecosystem function requires a mechanistic understanding of the multiple geomorphic and biological factors affecting tree recruitment and survival, including the timing and magnitude of river flows, and the concomitant influence on suitable habitat creation and mortality from scour and sedimentation burial. Despite a great deal of empirical research on some components of the system, such as factors affecting cottonwood recruitment, other key components are less studied. Yet understanding the relative influence of the full suite of physical and life-history drivers is critical to modeling whole-population dynamics under changing environmental conditions. We addressed these issues for the Fremont cottonwood population along the Sacramento River, CA using a sensitivity analysis approach to quantify uncertainty in parameters on the outcomes of a patch-based, dynamic population model. Using a broad range of plausible values for 15 model parameters that represent key physical, biological and climatic components of the ecosystem, we ran 1,000 population simulations that consisted of a subset of 14.3 million possible combinations of parameter estimates to predict the frequency of patch colonization and total forest habitat predicted to occur under current hydrologic conditions after 175 years. Results indicate that Fremont cottonwood populations are highly sensitive to the interactions among flow regime, sedimentation rate and the depth of the capillary fringe (Fig. 1). Estimates of long-term floodplain sedimentation rate would substantially improve model accuracy. Spatial variation in sediment texture was also important to the extent that it determines the depth of the capillary fringe, which regulates the availability of water for germination and adult tree growth. Our sensitivity analyses suggest that models of future scenarios should incorporate regional climate change projections because changes in temperature and the timing and volume of precipitation affects sensitive aspects of the system, including the timing of seed release and spring snowmelt runoff. Figure 1. The relative effects on model predictions of uncertainty around each parameter included in the patch-based population model for Fremont cottonwood.

m=1 diocotron mode damping in the Electron Diffusion Gauge (EDG) experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Stephen F.; Morrison, Kyle A.; Davidson, Ronald C.; Jenkins, Thomas G.

2002-01-01

The evolution of the amplitude of the m=1 diocotron mode is used to measure the background neutral pressure in the Electron Diffusion Gauge (EDG), a Malmberg-Penning trap. Below 5×10-8 Torr, the dependence on pressure scales as P1/4, and is sensitive to pressure changes as small as ΔP=5×10-11 Torr. Previous studies on the EDG showed that the diocotron mode is more strongly damped at higher neutral pressures. Both the diocotron mode damping rate and the plasma expansion rate depend similarly on experimental parameters, i.e., conditions which favor expansion also favor suppression of the diocotron mode. The sensitivity of the mode evolution is examined as a function of the resistive growth driving conditions, which are controlled by the amount of wall resistance connected to the trap.

Global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature for informing salmonid disease management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javaheri, Amir; Babbar-Sebens, Meghna; Alexander, Julie; Bartholomew, Jerri; Hallett, Sascha

2018-06-01

Many rivers in the Pacific Northwest region of North America are anthropogenically manipulated via dam operations, leading to system-wide impacts on hydrodynamic conditions and aquatic communities. Understanding how dam operations alter abiotic and biotic variables is important for designing management actions. For example, in the Klamath River, dam outflows could be manipulated to alter water age and temperature to reduce risk of parasite infections in salmon by diluting or altering viability of parasite spores. However, sensitivity of water age and temperature to the riverine conditions such as bathymetry can affect outcomes from dam operations. To examine this issue in detail, we conducted a global sensitivity analysis of water age and temperature to a comprehensive set of hydraulics and meteorological parameters in the Klamath River, California, where management of salmonid disease is a high priority. We applied an analysis technique, which combined Latin-hypercube and one-at-a-time sampling methods, and included simulation runs with the hydrodynamic numerical model of the Lower Klamath. We found that flow rate and bottom roughness were the two most important parameters that influence water age. Water temperature was more sensitive to inflow temperature, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, flow rate, and wet bulb temperature respectively. Our results are relevant for managers because they provide a framework for predicting how water within 'high infection risk' sections of the river will respond to dam water (low infection risk) input. Moreover, these data will be useful for prioritizing the use of water age (dilution) versus temperature (spore viability) under certain contexts when considering flow manipulation as a method to reduce risk of infection and disease in Klamath River salmon.

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico

EPA Science Inventory

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables ...

MOESHA: A genetic algorithm for automatic calibration and estimation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity of hydrologic models

EPA Science Inventory

Characterization of uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters is an essential and often overlooked facet of hydrological modeling. This paper introduces an algorithm called MOESHA that combines input parameter sensitivity analyses with a genetic algorithm calibration routin...

Differential sensitivity of duckweeds (Lemnaceae) to sulfite: I. Carbon assimilation and frond replication rate as factors influencing sulfite phytotoxicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takemoto, B.K.; Noble, R.D.

1986-01-01

The thiol content and hydrogen sulfide emission responses of duckweeds (Lemnaceae) differentially sensitive to sulfite enrichment were studied, at two levels of irradiance. The objectives were to examine the relationship of selected parameters of sulfite metabolism to sulfite sensitivity, and the role of light level on modifying sulfite metabolic responses and duckweed sulfite sensitivity. Under low light, thiol contents were increased 30 to 40% by sulfite in all three duckweeds examined. Hydrogen sulfide was emitted by all three species, and emission rates were up to four times higher in the sulfite tolerant duckweed Lemna valdiviana. Under high light, sulfite increasedmore » thiol contents by an average of 40% in L. valdiviana and Spirodela oligorhiza, but only 20% in Lemna gibba. The greater light enhancement of thiol content exhibited by L. valdiviana and S. oligorhiza may be indicative of larger or more numerous sulfur sinks. Hydrogen sulfide emission rates were also enhanced under high light, and L. gibba exhibited a 17% increase relative to its low light rate. In comparison, L. valdiviana and S. oligorhiza exhibited 55% and 60% increases, respectively. The ability to form elevated internal thiols and hydrogen sulfide were found to be important to sulfite tolerance in duckweeds. Enhancement of both processes under high light may contribute to increased tolerance of sulfite in L. gibba and S. oligorhiza. It is hypothesized that thiol production and hydrogen sulfide emission are important sulfite detoxification processes in duckweeds, and enhancement of sulfite detoxification is fundamental to the modification of duckweed sulfite sensitivity by the photoenvironment. 25 refs., 3 tabs.« less

Impact of ionic current variability on human ventricular cellular electrophysiology.

PubMed

Romero, Lucía; Pueyo, Esther; Fink, Martin; Rodríguez, Blanca

2009-10-01

Abnormalities in repolarization and its rate dependence are known to be related to increased proarrhythmic risk. A number of repolarization-related electrophysiological properties are commonly used as preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk. However, the variability and complexity of repolarization mechanisms make the use of cellular biomarkers to predict arrhythmic risk preclinically challenging. Our goal is to investigate the role of ionic current properties and their variability in modulating cellular biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to improve risk stratification and identification in humans. A systematic investigation into the sensitivity of the main preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to changes in ionic current conductances and kinetics was performed using computer simulations. Four stimulation protocols were applied to the ten Tusscher and Panfilov human ventricular model to quantify the impact of +/-15 and +/-30% variations in key model parameters on action potential (AP) properties, Ca(2+) and Na(+) dynamics, and their rate dependence. Simulations show that, in humans, AP duration is moderately sensitive to changes in all repolarization current conductances and in L-type Ca(2+) current (I(CaL)) and slow component of the delayed rectifier current (I(Ks)) inactivation kinetics. AP triangulation, however, is strongly dependent only on inward rectifier K(+) current (I(K1)) and delayed rectifier current (I(Kr)) conductances. Furthermore, AP rate dependence (i.e., AP duration rate adaptation and restitution properties) and intracellular Ca(2+) and Na(+) levels are highly sensitive to both I(CaL) and Na(+)/K(+) pump current (I(NaK)) properties. This study provides quantitative insights into the sensitivity of preclinical biomarkers of arrhythmic risk to variations in ionic current properties in humans. The results show the importance of sensitivity analysis as a powerful method for the in-depth validation of mathematical models in cardiac electrophysiology.

Shock Layer Radiation Modeling and Uncertainty for Mars Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Christopher O.; Brandis, Aaron M.; Sutton, Kenneth

2012-01-01

A model for simulating nonequilibrium radiation from Mars entry shock layers is presented. A new chemical kinetic rate model is developed that provides good agreement with recent EAST and X2 shock tube radiation measurements. This model includes a CO dissociation rate that is a factor of 13 larger than the rate used widely in previous models. Uncertainties in the proposed rates are assessed along with uncertainties in translational-vibrational relaxation modeling parameters. The stagnation point radiative flux uncertainty due to these flowfield modeling parameter uncertainties is computed to vary from 50 to 200% for a range of free-stream conditions, with densities ranging from 5e-5 to 5e-4 kg/m3 and velocities ranging from of 6.3 to 7.7 km/s. These conditions cover the range of anticipated peak radiative heating conditions for proposed hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (HIADs). Modeling parameters for the radiative spectrum are compiled along with a non-Boltzmann rate model for the dominant radiating molecules, CO, CN, and C2. A method for treating non-local absorption in the non-Boltzmann model is developed, which is shown to result in up to a 50% increase in the radiative flux through absorption by the CO 4th Positive band. The sensitivity of the radiative flux to the radiation modeling parameters is presented and the uncertainty for each parameter is assessed. The stagnation point radiative flux uncertainty due to these radiation modeling parameter uncertainties is computed to vary from 18 to 167% for the considered range of free-stream conditions. The total radiative flux uncertainty is computed as the root sum square of the flowfield and radiation parametric uncertainties, which results in total uncertainties ranging from 50 to 260%. The main contributors to these significant uncertainties are the CO dissociation rate and the CO heavy-particle excitation rates. Applying the baseline flowfield and radiation models developed in this work, the radiative heating for the Mars Pathfinder probe is predicted to be nearly 20 W/cm2. In contrast to previous studies, this value is shown to be significant relative to the convective heating.

Analysis of the passive stabilization of the long duration exposure facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegel, S. H.; Vishwanath, N. S.

1977-01-01

The nominal Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) configurations and the anticipated orbit parameters are presented. A linear steady state analysis was performed using these parameters. The effects of orbit eccentricity, solar pressure, aerodynamic pressure, magnetic dipole, and the magnetically anchored rate damper were evaluated to determine the configuration sensitivity to variations in these parameters. The worst case conditions for steady state errors were identified, and the performance capability calculated. Garber instability bounds were evaluated for the range of configuration and damping coefficients under consideration. The transient damping capabilities of the damper were examined, and the time constant as a function of damping coefficient and spacecraft moment of inertia determined. The capture capabilities of the damper were calculated, and the results combined with steady state, transient, and Garber instability analyses to select damper design parameters.

Selecting focal species as surrogates for imperiled species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silvano, Amy; Guyer, Craig; Steury, Todd; Grand, James B.

2017-01-01

Most imperiled species are rare or elusive and difficult to detect, which makes gathering data to estimate their response to habitat restoration a challenge. We used a repeatable, systematic method for selecting focal species using relative sensitivities derived from occupancy analysis. Our objective was to select suites of focal species that would be useful as surrogates when predicting effects of restoration of habitat characteristics preferred by imperiled species. We developed 27 habitat profiles that represent general habitat relationships for 118 imperiled species. We identified 23 regularly encountered species that were sensitive to important aspects of those profiles. We validated our approach by examining the correlation between estimated probabilities of occupancy for species of concern and focal species selected using our method. Occupancy rates of focal species were more related to occupancy rates of imperiled species when they were sensitive to more of the parameters appearing in profiles of imperiled species. We suggest that this approach can be an effective means of predicting responses by imperiled species to proposed management actions. However, adequate monitoring will be required to determine the effectiveness of using focal species to guide management actions.

Viscous and Thermal Effects on Hydrodynamic Instability in Liquid-Propellant Combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margolis, Stephen B.; Sacksteder, Kurt (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability has recently been shown to arise during the deflagration of liquid propellants in those parameter regimes where the pressure-dependent burning rate is characterized by a negative pressure sensitivity. This type of instability can coexist with the classical cellular, or Landau, form of hydrodynamic instability, with the occurrence of either dependent on whether the pressure sensitivity is sufficiently large or small in magnitude. For the inviscid problem, it has been shown that when the burning rate is realistically allowed to depend on temperature as well as pressure, that sufficiently large values of the temperature sensitivity relative to the pressure sensitivity causes the pulsating form of hydrodynamic instability to become dominant. In that regime, steady, planar burning becomes intrinsically unstable to pulsating disturbances whose wavenumbers are sufficiently small. In the present work, this analysis is extended to the fully viscous case, where it is shown that although viscosity is stabilizing for intermediate and larger wavenumber perturbations, the intrinsic pulsating instability for small wavenumbers remains. Under these conditions, liquid-propellant combustion is predicted to be characterized by large unsteady cells along the liquid/gas interface.

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, D. Matthew

2006-01-01

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

[Demographic analysis of the blue shark, Prionace glauca, in the North Atlantic Ocean].

PubMed

Gao, Chun-xia; Dai, Xiao-jie; Tian, Si-quan; Wu, Feng; Zhu, Jiang-feng

2016-02-01

The blue shark, Prionace glauca, is the main by-catch species in tuna longline fishery. As one of top species in the oceanic food webs, the blue shark plays an important role in the marine ecosystem. Traditional stock assessment methods are difficult to accurately evaluate the population dynamic for this shark because of limited data. Based on life-history parameters of the blue shark in the North Atlantic, demographic analysis was employed to estimate the demographic parameters and evaluate the potential exploitation for the blue shark. Moreover, we discussed the relationship between age at first capture and critical value of fishing mortality corresponding to the value of intrinsic rate of natural increase 0. The results showed that the survival rate (S) of blue shark from 0.719 to 0.820, intrinsic rate of natural increase (r0) from 0.250 to 0.381, time of population doubling (tx2) from 1.819 to 2.773 years, reproduction rate per generation (R0) from 6.600 to 22.255, and generation time (G) from 8.498 to 10.162 years. The sensitivity analysis for the life history parameters revealed that the uncertainties of natural mortality existed in the first age class, age at maturity and maximum age had slight influence on the demographic parameters. Fishing mortality (Fc) increased with the age at first capture. When the age at first capture (tc) was more than five, there was no obvious relationship between Fc and tc.

The use of berberine for women with polycystic ovary syndrome undergoing IVF treatment.

PubMed

An, Yuan; Sun, Zhuangzhuang; Zhang, Yajuan; Liu, Bin; Guan, Yuanyuan; Lu, Meisong

2014-03-01

Previous studies have indicated that berberine is an effective insulin sensitizer with comparable activity to metformin (Diabetes 2006, 55, 2256). Reduced insulin sensitivity is reportedly a factor adversely affecting the outcome of IVF in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) (Human Reproduction 2006, 21, 1416). Our objective was to evaluate the clinical, metabolic and endocrine effects of berberine vs metformin in PCOS women scheduled for IVF treatment and to explore the potential benefits to the IVF process. We performed a prospective study in 150 infertile women with PCOS undergoing IVF treatment. Patients were randomized to receive berberine, metformin or placebo tablets for 3 months before ovarian stimulation. The clinical, endocrine, metabolic parameters and the outcome of IVF. Compared with placebo, greater reductions in total testosterone, free androgen index, fasting glucose, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR, and increases in SHBG, were observed in the berberine and metformin groups. Three months of treatment with berberine or metformin before the IVF cycle increased the pregnancy rate and reduced the incidence of severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. Furthermore, treatment with berberine, in comparison with metformin, was associated with decreases in BMI, lipid parameters and total FSH requirement, and an increase in live birth rate with fewer gastrointestinal adverse events. Berberine and metformin treatments prior to IVF improved the pregnancy outcome by normalizing the clinical, endocrine and metabolic parameters in PCOS women. Berberine has a more pronounced therapeutic effect and achieved more live births with fewer side effects than metformin. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An intelligent classifier for prognosis of cardiac resynchronization therapy based on speckle-tracking echocardiograms.

PubMed

Chao, Pei-Kuang; Wang, Chun-Li; Chan, Hsiao-Lung

2012-03-01

Predicting response after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has been a challenge of cardiologists. About 30% of selected patients based on the standard selection criteria for CRT do not show response after receiving the treatment. This study is aimed to build an intelligent classifier to assist in identifying potential CRT responders by speckle-tracking radial strain based on echocardiograms. The echocardiograms analyzed were acquired before CRT from 26 patients who have received CRT. Sequential forward selection was performed on the parameters obtained by peak-strain timing and phase space reconstruction on speckle-tracking radial strain to find an optimal set of features for creating intelligent classifiers. Support vector machine (SVM) with a linear, quadratic, and polynominal kernel were tested to build classifiers to identify potential responders and non-responders for CRT by selected features. Based on random sub-sampling validation, the best classification performance is correct rate about 95% with 96-97% sensitivity and 93-94% specificity achieved by applying SVM with a quadratic kernel on a set of 3 parameters. The selected 3 parameters contain both indexes extracted by peak-strain timing and phase space reconstruction. An intelligent classifier with an averaged correct rate, sensitivity and specificity above 90% for assisting in identifying CRT responders is built by speckle-tracking radial strain. The classifier can be applied to provide objective suggestion for patient selection of CRT. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interference effect on a heavy Higgs resonance signal in the γ γ and Z Z channels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Jeonghyeon; Yoon, Yeo Woong; Jung, Sunghoon

2016-03-24

The resonance-continuum interference is usually neglected when the width of a resonance is small compared to the resonance mass. We reexamine this standard by studying the interference effects in high-resolution decay channels, γγ and ZZ, of the heavy Higgs boson H in nearly aligned two-Higgs-doublet models. For the H with a sub-percent width-to-mass ratio, we find that, in the parameter space where the LHC 14 TeV ZZ resonance search can be sensitive, the interference effects can modify the ZZ signal rate by O(10)% and the exclusion reach by O(10) GeV. In other parameter space where the ZZ or γγ signalmore » rate is smaller, the LHC 14 TeV reach is absent, but a resonance shape can be much more dramatically changed. In particular, the γγ signal rate can change by O(100)%. Relevant to such parameter space, we suggest variables that can characterize a general resonance shape. Furthermore, we also illustrate the relevance of the width on the interference by adding nonstandard decay modes of the heavy Higgs boson.« less

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Chemical and physical characterization of the first stages of protoplanetary disk formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincelin, Ugo

2012-12-01

Low mass stars, like our Sun, are born from the collapse of a molecular cloud. The matter falls in the center of the cloud, creating a protoplanetary disk surrounding a protostar. Planets and other Solar System bodies will be formed in the disk. The chemical composition of the interstellar matter and its evolution during the formation of the disk are important to better understand the formation process of these objects. I studied the chemical and physical evolution of this matter, from the cloud to the disk, using the chemical gas-grain code Nautilus. A sensitivity study to some parameters of the code (such as elemental abundances and parameters of grain surface chemistry) has been done. More particularly, the updates of rate coefficients and branching ratios of the reactions of our chemical network showed their importance, such as on the abundances of some chemical species, and on the code sensitivity to others parameters. Several physical models of collapsing dense core have also been considered. The more complex and solid approach has been to interface our chemical code with the radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic model of stellar formation RAMSES, in order to model in three dimensions the physical and chemical evolution of a young disk formation. Our study showed that the disk keeps imprints of the past history of the matter, and so its chemical composition is sensitive to the initial conditions.

The terminal latency of the phrenic nerve correlates with respiratory symptoms in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Park, Jin-Sung; Park, Donghwi

2017-09-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the electrophysiological parameters in phrenic nerve conduction studies (NCS) that sensitively reflect latent respiratory insufficiency present in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Forty-nine patients with ALS were examined, and after exclusion, 21 patients with ALS and their phrenic NCS results were reviewed. The patients were divided into two groups according to their respiratory sub-score in the ALS functional rating scale - revised (Group A, sub-score 12vs. Group B, sub-score 11). We compared the parameters of phrenic NCS between the two groups. There were no significant differences in the clinical characteristics between the two groups. Using a multivariate model, we found that the terminal latency of the phrenic nerve was the only parameter that was associated with early symptoms of respiratory insufficiency (p<0.05). The optimal cutoff value for the terminal latency of the phrenic nerve was 7.65ms (sensitivity 80%, specificity 68.2%). The significantly prolonged terminal latency of the phrenic nerve in our study may reflect a profound distal motor axonal dysfunction of the phrenic nerve in patients with ALS in the early stage of respiratory insufficiency that can be used as a sensitive electrophysiological marker reflecting respiratory symptoms in ALS. The terminal latency of the phrenic nerve is useful for early detection of respiratory insufficiency in patients with ALS. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of increasing treatment rates on cost-effectiveness of subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) in respiratory allergy: a decision analytic modelling approach.

PubMed

Richter, Ann-Kathrin; Klimek, Ludger; Merk, Hans F; Mülleneisen, Norbert; Renz, Harald; Wehrmann, Wolfgang; Werfel, Thomas; Hamelmann, Eckard; Siebert, Uwe; Sroczynski, Gaby; Wasem, Jürgen; Biermann-Stallwitz, Janine

2018-03-24

Specific immunotherapy is the only causal treatment in respiratory allergy. Due to high treatment cost and possible severe side effects subcutaneous immunotherapy (SCIT) is not indicated in all patients. Nevertheless, reported treatment rates seem to be low. This study aims to analyze the effects of increasing treatment rates of SCIT in respiratory allergy in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A state-transition Markov model simulates the course of disease of patients with allergic rhinitis, allergic asthma and both diseases over 10 years including a symptom-free state and death. Treatment comprises symptomatic pharmacotherapy alone or combined with SCIT. The model compares two strategies of increased and status quo treatment rates. Transition probabilities are based on routine data. Costs are calculated from the societal perspective applying German unit costs to literature-derived resource consumption. QALYs are determined by translating the mean change in non-preference-based quality of life scores to a change in utility. Key parameters are subjected to deterministic sensitivity analyses. Increasing treatment rates is a cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 3484€/QALY compared to the status quo. The most influential parameters are SCIT discontinuation rates, treatment effects on the transition probabilities and cost of SCIT. Across all parameter variations, the best case leads to dominance of increased treatment rates while the worst case ICER is 34,315€/QALY. Excluding indirect cost leads to a twofold increase in the ICER. Measures to increase SCIT initiation rates should be implemented and also address improving adherence.

Combustion stability with baffles, absorbers and velocity sensitive combustion. [liquid propellant rocket combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, C. E.

1980-01-01

Analytical and computational techniques were developed to predict the stability behavior of liquid propellant rocket combustors using damping devices such as acoustic liners, slot absorbers, and injector face baffles. Models were developed to determine the frequency and decay rate of combustor oscillations, the spatial and temporal pressure waveforms, and the stability limits in terms of combustion response model parameters.

Infrared emission spectra from operating elastohydrodynamic sliding contacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauer, J. L.

1976-01-01

Infrared emission spectra from an operating EHD sliding contact were obtained through a diamond window for an aromatic polymer solute present in equal concentration in four different fluids. Three different temperature ranges, three different loads, and three different speeds for every load were examined. Very sensitive Fourier spectrophotometric (Interferometric) techniques were employed. Band Intensities and band intensity ratios found to depend both on the operating parameters and on the fluid. Fluid film and metal surface temperatures were calculated from the spectra and their dependence on the mechanical parameters plotted. The difference between these temperatures could be plotted against shear rate on one curve for all fluids. However, at the same shear rate the difference between bulk fluid temperature and diamond window temperature was much higher for one of the fluids, a traction fluid, than for the others.

Study of Material Densification of In718 in the Higher Throughput Parameter Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cordner, Samuel

2016-01-01

Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is a powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process used increasingly in the aerospace industry to reduce the cost, weight, and fabrication time for complex propulsion components. Previous optimization studies for SLM using the Concept Laser M1 and M2 machines at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have centered on machine default parameters. The objective of this project is to characterize how heat treatment affects density and porosity from a microscopic point of view. This is performs using higher throughput parameters (a previously unexplored region of the manufacturing operating envelope for this application) on material consolidation. Density blocks were analyzed to explore the relationship between build parameters (laser power, scan speed, and hatch spacing) and material consolidation (assessed in terms of density and porosity). The study also considers the impact of post-processing, specifically hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment, as well as deposition pattern on material consolidation in the higher energy parameter regime. Metallurgical evaluation of specimens will also be presented. This work will contribute to creating a knowledge base (understanding material behavior in all ranges of the AM equipment operating envelope) that is critical to transitioning AM from the custom low rate production sphere it currently occupies to the world of mass high rate production, where parts are fabricated at a rapid rate with confidence that they will meet or exceed all stringent functional requirements for spaceflight hardware. These studies will also provide important data on the sensitivity of material consolidation to process parameters that will inform the design and development of future flight articles using SLM.

Safety profile of hymenoptera venom immunotherapy (VIT) in monosensitized patients: lack of new sensitization to nontreated insect venom.

PubMed

Spoerl, D; Bircher, A J; Scherer, K

2011-01-01

Venom immunotherapy (VIT) has proven to be efficacious in reducing the severity of anaphylactic reactions following field stings in patients with Hymenoptera venom allergy. Due to sequence homologies in the allergens used in Hymenoptera vaccines, there is concern that immunotherapy could lead to sensitization to allergens to which patients were not previously sensitized. The relevance of such an undesired phenomenon is unclear. To investigate the incidence of sensitization to Hymenoptera venoms other than those to which the patients were already sensitized and to assess the overall safety profile of VIT in order to compare the risk-benefit ratio in a subpopulation of monosensitized individuals. We performed a retrospective analysis of specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE) levels in patients with no prior detectable sIgE to Hymenoptera venom other than the one for which they received VIT. We assessed the safety profile of VIT using serological and clinical parameters. Of the 56 monosensitized patients who had VIT, 3 (5%) developed sIgE to the other insect with no history of field sting to explain it. This rate was similar to the rate of new sensitization due to field stings during VIT. VIT was well-tolerated and levels of serological markers improved. No patient had a systemic anaphylactic reaction after having been stung by an insect other than the one he/she was desensitized for during follow-up. VIT seems to be safe with respect to clinically significant new sensitizations.

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

Impact of ventilation systems and energy savings in a building on the mechanisms governing the indoor radon activity concentration.

PubMed

Collignan, Bernard; Powaga, Emilie

2017-11-23

For a given radon potential in the ground and a given building, the parameters affecting the indoor radon activity concentration (IRnAC) are indoor depressurization of a building and its air change rate. These parameters depend mainly on the building characteristics, such as airtightness, and on the nature and performances of the ventilation system. This study involves a numerical sensitivity assessment of the indoor environmental conditions on the IRnAC in buildings. A numerical ventilation model has been adapted to take into account the effects of variations in the indoor environmental conditions (depressurization and air change rate) on the radon entry rate and on the IRnAC. In the context of the development of a policy to reduce energy consumption in a building, the results obtained showed that IRnAC could be strongly affected by variations in the air permeability of the building associated with the ventilation regime. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of deep percolation, lag time and recharge in an irrigated semi-arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarieh, F.; Ansari, H.; Ziaei, A. N.; Izady, A.; Davari, K.; Brunner, P.

2018-05-01

The time required for deep percolating water to reach the water table can be considerable in areas with a thick vadose zone. Sustainable groundwater management, therefore, has to consider the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. The key parameters that control the lag time have been widely examined in soil physics using small-scale lysimeters and modeling studies. However, only a small number of studies have analyzed how deep-percolation rates affect groundwater recharge dynamics over large spatial scales. This study examined how the parameters influencing lag time affect groundwater recharge in a semi-arid catchment under irrigation (in northeastern Iran) using a numerical modeling approach. Flow simulations were performed by the MODFLOW-NWT code with the Vadose-Zone Flow (UZF) Package. Calibration of the groundwater model was based on data from 48 observation wells. Flow simulations showed that lag times vary from 1 to more than 100 months. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that during drought conditions, the lag time was highly sensitive to the rate of deep percolation. The study illustrated two critical points: (1) the importance of providing estimates of the lag time as a basis for sustainable groundwater management, and (2) lag time not only depends on factors such as soil hydraulic conductivity or vadose zone depth but also depends on the deep-percolation rates and the antecedent soil-moisture condition. Therefore, estimates of the lag time have to be associated with specific percolation rates, in addition to depth to groundwater and soil properties.

Biodegradation modelling of a dissolved gasoline plume applying independent laboratory and field parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schirmer, Mario; Molson, John W.; Frind, Emil O.; Barker, James F.

2000-12-01

Biodegradation of organic contaminants in groundwater is a microscale process which is often observed on scales of 100s of metres or larger. Unfortunately, there are no known equivalent parameters for characterizing the biodegradation process at the macroscale as there are, for example, in the case of hydrodynamic dispersion. Zero- and first-order degradation rates estimated at the laboratory scale by model fitting generally overpredict the rate of biodegradation when applied to the field scale because limited electron acceptor availability and microbial growth are not considered. On the other hand, field-estimated zero- and first-order rates are often not suitable for predicting plume development because they may oversimplify or neglect several key field scale processes, phenomena and characteristics. This study uses the numerical model BIO3D to link the laboratory and field scales by applying laboratory-derived Monod kinetic degradation parameters to simulate a dissolved gasoline field experiment at the Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden. All input parameters were derived from independent laboratory and field measurements or taken from the literature a priori to the simulations. The simulated results match the experimental results reasonably well without model calibration. A sensitivity analysis on the most uncertain input parameters showed only a minor influence on the simulation results. Furthermore, it is shown that the flow field, the amount of electron acceptor (oxygen) available, and the Monod kinetic parameters have a significant influence on the simulated results. It is concluded that laboratory-derived Monod kinetic parameters can adequately describe field scale degradation, provided all controlling factors are incorporated in the field scale model. These factors include advective-dispersive transport of multiple contaminants and electron acceptors and large-scale spatial heterogeneities.

Parameter Tuning and Calibration of RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel Cumulus Parameterization Scheme over CORDEX East Asian Domain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Liwei; Qian, Yun; Zhou, Tianjun

2014-10-01

In this study, we calibrated the performance of regional climate model RegCM3 with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme over CORDEX East Asia domain by tuning the selected seven parameters through multiple very fast simulated annealing (MVFSA) sampling method. The seven parameters were selected based on previous studies, which customized the RegCM3 with MIT-Emanuel scheme through three different ways by using the sensitivity experiments. The responses of model results to the seven parameters were investigated. Since the monthly total rainfall is constrained, the simulated spatial pattern of rainfall and the probability density function (PDF) distribution of daily rainfallmore » rates are significantly improved in the optimal simulation. Sensitivity analysis suggest that the parameter “relative humidity criteria” (RH), which has not been considered in the default simulation, has the largest effect on the model results. The responses of total rainfall over different regions to RH were examined. Positive responses of total rainfall to RH are found over northern equatorial western Pacific, which are contributed by the positive responses of explicit rainfall. Followed by an increase of RH, the increases of the low-level convergence and the associated increases in cloud water favor the increase of the explicit rainfall. The identified optimal parameters constrained by the total rainfall have positive effects on the low-level circulation and the surface air temperature. Furthermore, the optimized parameters based on the extreme case are suitable for a normal case and the model’s new version with mixed convection scheme.« less

Further comments on sensitivities, parameter estimation, and sampling design in one-dimensional analysis of solute transport in porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1988-01-01

Sensitivities of solute concentration to parameters associated with first-order chemical decay, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and multilayer transport are examined in one-dimensional analytical models of transient solute transport in porous media. A sensitivity is a change in solute concentration resulting from a change in a model parameter. Sensitivity analysis is important because minimum information required in regression on chemical data for the estimation of model parameters by regression is expressed in terms of sensitivities. Nonlinear regression models of solute transport were tested on sets of noiseless observations from known models that exceeded the minimum sensitivity information requirements. Results demonstrate that the regression models consistently converged to the correct parameters when the initial sets of parameter values substantially deviated from the correct parameters. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, several statements may be made about design of sampling for parameter estimation for the models examined: (1) estimation of parameters associated with solute transport in the individual layers of a multilayer system is possible even when solute concentrations in the individual layers are mixed in an observation well; (2) when estimating parameters in a decaying upstream boundary condition, observations are best made late in the passage of the front near a time chosen by adding the inverse of an hypothesized value of the source decay parameter to the estimated mean travel time at a given downstream location; (3) estimation of a first-order chemical decay parameter requires observations to be made late in the passage of the front, preferably near a location corresponding to a travel time of √2 times the half-life of the solute; and (4) estimation of a parameter relating to spatial variability in an initial condition requires observations to be made early in time relative to passage of the solute front.

Modeling light and temperature effects on leaf emergence in wheat and barley

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, T.; Bugbee, B.

1991-01-01

Phenological development affects canopy structure, radiation interception, and dry matter production; most crop simulation models therefore incorporate leaf emergence rate as a basic parameter. A recent study examined leaf emergence rate as a function of temperature and daylength among wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivars. Leaf emergence rate and phyllochron were modeled as functions of temperature alone, daylength alone, and the interaction between temperature and daylength. The resulting equations contained an unwieldy number of constants. Here we simplify by reducing the constants by > 70%, and show leaf emergence rate as a single response surface with temperature and daylength. In addition, we incorporate the effect of photosynthetic photon flux into the model. Generic fits for wheat and barley show cultivar differences less than +/- 5% for wheat and less than +/- 10% for barley. Barley is more sensitive to daylength changes than wheat for common environmental values of daylength, which may be related to the difference in sensitivity to daylength between spring and winter cultivars. Differences in leaf emergence rate between cultivars can be incorporated into the model by means of a single, nondimensional factor for each cultivar.

Microphysically derived expressions for rate-and-state friction and fault stability parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, Andre; Spiers, Christopher

2017-04-01

Rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws and associated parameters are extensively applied to fault mechanics, mainly on an empirical basis with a limited understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. We recently established a general microphysical model [Chen and Spiers, 2016], for describing both steady-state and transient frictional behavior of any granular fault gouge material undergoing deformation by granular flow plus an arbitrary creep mechanism at grain contacts, such as pressure solution. We further showed that the model is able to reproduce typical experimental frictional results, namely "velocity stepping" and "slide-hold-slide" sequences, in satisfactory agreement with the main features and trends observed. Here, we extend our model, which we explored only numerically thus far, to obtain analytical solutions for the classical rate and state friction parameters from a purely microphysical modelling basis. By analytically solving the constitutive equations of the model under various boundary conditions, physically meaningful, theoretical expressions for the RSF parameters, i.e. a, b and Dc, are obtained. We also apply linear stability analysis to a spring-slider system, describing interface friction using our model, to yield analytical expressions of the critical stiffness (Kc) and critical recurrence wavelength (Wc) of the system. The values of a , b and Dc, as well as Kc and Wc, predicted by these expressions agree well with the numerical modeling results and acceptably with values obtained from experiments, on calcite for instance. Inserting the parameters obtained into classical RSF laws (slowness and slip laws) and conducting forward modelling gives simulated friction behavior that is fully consistent with the direct predictions of our numerically implemented model. Numerical tests with friction obeying our model show that the slip stability of fault motion exhibits a transition from stable sliding, via self-sustained oscillations, to stick slips with decreasing elastic stiffness, decreasing loading rate, and increasing normal stress, which is fully consistent with our linear stability analysis and also with previous RSF models that employed constant values of the RSF parameters. Importantly, our analytical expressions for. a, b, Dc, Kc and Wc, are functions of the internal microstructure of the fault (porosity, grain size and shear zone thickness), the material properties of the fault gouge (e.g. creep law parameters like activation energy, stress sensitivity, grain size sensitivity), and the ambient conditions the fault is subjected to (temperature and normal stress). The expressions obtained thus have clear physical meaning allowing a more meaningful extrapolation to natural conditions. On the basis of these physics-based expressions, seismological implications for slip on natural faults (e.g. subduction zone interfaces, faults in carbonate terrains) are discussed. Reference Chen, J., and C. J. Spiers (2016), Rate and state frictional and healing behavior of carbonate fault gouge explained using microphysical model, J. Geophys. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JB013470.

Sensitivity to Rhythmic Parameters in Dyslexic Children: A Comparison of Hungarian and English

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suranyi, Zsuzsanna; Csepe, Valeria; Richardson, Ulla; Thomson, Jennifer M.; Honbolygo, Ferenc; Goswami, Usha

2009-01-01

It has been proposed that sensitivity to the parameters underlying speech rhythm may be important in setting up well-specified phonological representations in the mental lexicon. However, different acoustic parameters may contribute differentially to rhythm and stress in different languages. Here we contrast sensitivity to one such cue, amplitude…

Generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test.

PubMed

Munir, Mohammad

2018-06-01

Generalized sensitivity functions characterize the sensitivity of the parameter estimates with respect to the nominal parameters. We observe from the generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test that the measurements of insulin, 62 min after the administration of the glucose bolus into the experimental subject's body, possess no information about the parameter estimates. The glucose measurements possess the information about the parameter estimates up to three hours. These observations have been verified by the parameter estimation of the minimal model. The standard errors of the estimates and crude Monte Carlo process also confirm this observation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of the time scale of model sensitivity response on coupled model parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chang; Zhang, Shaoqing; Li, Shan; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-11-01

That a model has sensitivity responses to parameter uncertainties is a key concept in implementing model parameter estimation using filtering theory and methodology. Depending on the nature of associated physics and characteristic variability of the fluid in a coupled system, the response time scales of a model to parameters can be different, from hourly to decadal. Unlike state estimation, where the update frequency is usually linked with observational frequency, the update frequency for parameter estimation must be associated with the time scale of the model sensitivity response to the parameter being estimated. Here, with a simple coupled model, the impact of model sensitivity response time scales on coupled model parameter estimation is studied. The model includes characteristic synoptic to decadal scales by coupling a long-term varying deep ocean with a slow-varying upper ocean forced by a chaotic atmosphere. Results show that, using the update frequency determined by the model sensitivity response time scale, both the reliability and quality of parameter estimation can be improved significantly, and thus the estimated parameters make the model more consistent with the observation. These simple model results provide a guideline for when real observations are used to optimize the parameters in a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization.

New Uses for Sensitivity Analysis: How Different Movement Tasks Effect Limb Model Parameter Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winters, J. M.; Stark, L.

1984-01-01

Original results for a newly developed eight-order nonlinear limb antagonistic muscle model of elbow flexion and extension are presented. A wider variety of sensitivity analysis techniques are used and a systematic protocol is established that shows how the different methods can be used efficiently to complement one another for maximum insight into model sensitivity. It is explicitly shown how the sensitivity of output behaviors to model parameters is a function of the controller input sequence, i.e., of the movement task. When the task is changed (for instance, from an input sequence that results in the usual fast movement task to a slower movement that may also involve external loading, etc.) the set of parameters with high sensitivity will in general also change. Such task-specific use of sensitivity analysis techniques identifies the set of parameters most important for a given task, and even suggests task-specific model reduction possibilities.

A computational framework for testing arrhythmia marker sensitivities to model parameters in functionally calibrated populations of atrial cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagos, Márcia R.; Arevalo, Hermenegild; de Oliveira, Bernardo Lino; Sundnes, Joakim; Maleckar, Mary M.

2017-09-01

Models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are complex non-linear systems which can be used to gain insight into mechanisms of cardiac dynamics in both healthy and pathological conditions. However, the complexity of cardiac models can make mechanistic insight difficult. Moreover, these are typically fitted to averaged experimental data which do not incorporate the variability in observations. Recently, building populations of models to incorporate inter- and intra-subject variability in simulations has been combined with sensitivity analysis (SA) to uncover novel ionic mechanisms and potentially clarify arrhythmogenic behaviors. We used the Koivumäki human atrial cell model to create two populations, representing normal Sinus Rhythm (nSR) and chronic Atrial Fibrillation (cAF), by varying 22 key model parameters. In each population, 14 biomarkers related to the action potential and dynamic restitution were extracted. Populations were calibrated based on distributions of biomarkers to obtain reasonable physiological behavior, and subjected to SA to quantify correlations between model parameters and pro-arrhythmia markers. The two populations showed distinct behaviors under steady state and dynamic pacing. The nSR population revealed greater variability, and more unstable dynamic restitution, as compared to the cAF population, suggesting that simulated cAF remodeling rendered cells more stable to parameter variation and rate adaptation. SA revealed that the biomarkers depended mainly on five ionic currents, with noted differences in sensitivities to these between nSR and cAF. Also, parameters could be selected to produce a model variant with no alternans and unaltered action potential morphology, highlighting that unstable dynamical behavior may be driven by specific cell parameter settings. These results ultimately suggest that arrhythmia maintenance in cAF may not be due to instability in cell membrane excitability, but rather due to tissue-level effects which promote initiation and maintenance of reentrant arrhythmia.

Estimating Sleep from Multisensory Armband Measurements: Validity and Reliability in Teens

PubMed Central

Roane, Brandy M.; Van Reen, Eliza; Hart, Chantelle N.; Wing, Rena; Carskadon, Mary A.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Given the recognition that sleep may influence obesity risk, there is increasing interest in measuring sleep parameters within obesity studies. The goal of the current analyses was to determine whether the SenseWear® Pro3 Armband (armband), typically used to assess physical activity, is reliable at assessing sleep parameters. We compared the armband to the AMI Motionlogger® (actigraph), a validated activity monitor for sleep assessment and to polysomnography (PSG), the gold standard for assessing sleep. Participants were twenty adolescents (mean age=15.5 years) with a mean BMI %tile of 63.7. All participants wore the armband and actigraph on their non-dominant arm while in-lab during a nocturnal PSG recording (600 minutes). Epoch-by-epoch sleep/wake data and concordance of sleep parameters were examined. No significant sleep parameter differences were found between the armband and PSG; the actigraph tended to overestimate sleep and underestimate wake compared to PSG. Both devices showed high sleep sensitivity, but lower wake detection rates. Bland-Altman plots showed large individual differences in armband sleep parameter concordance rates. The armband did well estimating sleep overall with group results more similar to PSG than the actigraph; however, the armband was less accurate at an individual level than the actigraph. PMID:26126746

Estimating sleep from multisensory armband measurements: validity and reliability in teens.

PubMed

Roane, Brandy M; Van Reen, Eliza; Hart, Chantelle N; Wing, Rena; Carskadon, Mary A

2015-12-01

Given the recognition that sleep may influence obesity risk, there is increasing interest in measuring sleep parameters within obesity studies. The goal of the current analyses was to determine whether the SenseWear(®) Pro3 Armband (armband), typically used to assess physical activity, is reliable at assessing sleep parameters. The armband was compared with the AMI Motionlogger(®) (actigraph), a validated activity monitor for sleep assessment, and with polysomnography, the gold standard for assessing sleep. Participants were 20 adolescents (mean age = 15.5 years) with a mean body mass index percentile of 63.7. All participants wore the armband and actigraph on their non-dominant arm while in-lab during a nocturnal polysomnographic recording (600 min). Epoch-by-epoch sleep/wake data and concordance of sleep parameters were examined. No significant sleep parameter differences were found between the armband and polysomnography; the actigraph tended to overestimate sleep and underestimate wake compared with polysomnography. Both devices showed high sleep sensitivity, but lower wake detection rates. Bland-Altman plots showed large individual differences in armband sleep parameter concordance rates. The armband did well estimating sleep overall, with group results more similar to polysomnography than the actigraph; however, the armband was less accurate at an individual level than the actigraph. © 2015 European Sleep Research Society.

Performance evaluation and optimization of the MiniPET-II scanner

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajtos, Imre; Emri, Miklos; Kis, Sandor A.; Opposits, Gabor; Potari, Norbert; Kiraly, Beata; Nagy, Ferenc; Tron, Lajos; Balkay, Laszlo

2013-04-01

This paper presents results of the performance of a small animal PET system (MiniPET-II) installed at our Institute. MiniPET-II is a full ring camera that includes 12 detector modules in a single ring comprised of 1.27×1.27×12 mm3 LYSO scintillator crystals. The axial field of view and the inner ring diameter are 48 mm and 211 mm, respectively. The goal of this study was to determine the NEMA-NU4 performance parameters of the scanner. In addition, we also investigated how the calculated parameters depend on the coincidence time window (τ=2, 3 and 4 ns) and the low threshold settings of the energy window (Elt=250, 350 and 450 keV). Independent measurements supported optimization of the effective system radius and the coincidence time window of the system. We found that the optimal coincidence time window and low threshold energy window are 3 ns and 350 keV, respectively. The spatial resolution was close to 1.2 mm in the center of the FOV with an increase of 17% at the radial edge. The maximum value of the absolute sensitivity was 1.37% for a point source. Count rate tests resulted in peak values for the noise equivalent count rate (NEC) curve and scatter fraction of 14.2 kcps (at 36 MBq) and 27.7%, respectively, using the rat phantom. Numerical values of the same parameters obtained for the mouse phantom were 55.1 kcps (at 38.8 MBq) and 12.3%, respectively. The recovery coefficients of the image quality phantom ranged from 0.1 to 0.87. Altering the τ and Elt resulted in substantial changes in the NEC peak and the sensitivity while the effect on the image quality was negligible. The spatial resolution proved to be, as expected, independent of the τ and Elt. The calculated optimal effective system radius (resulting in the best image quality) was 109 mm. Although the NEC peak parameters do not compare favorably with those of other small animal scanners, it can be concluded that under normal counting situations the MiniPET-II imaging capability assures remarkably good image quality, sensitivity and spatial resolution.

Carbon dioxide instantly sensitizes female yellow fever mosquitoes to human skin odours.

PubMed

Dekker, Teun; Geier, Martin; Cardé, Ring T

2005-08-01

Female mosquitoes are noted for their ability to use odours to locate a host for a blood meal. Two sensory organs contribute to their sense of smell: the maxillary palps, which measure the level of CO2, and the antennae, which detect other host-released odours. To establish the relative importance and interactions of CO2 and other body emissions in freely flying mosquitoes, we presented female yellow fever mosquitoes Aedes aegypti L. with broad plumes of human skin odour and CO2 at natural concentrations and dilutions thereof in a wind tunnel. 3-D video-recorded flight tracks were reconstructed. Activation, flight velocity, upwind turning and source finding waned quickly as skin odours were diluted, whereas in the presence of CO2 these parameters remained unchanged over more than a 100-fold dilution from exhaled concentrations. Although mosquitoes were behaviourally less sensitive to skin odours than to CO2, their sensitivity to skin odours increased transiently by at least fivefold immediately following a brief encounter with a filament of CO2. This sensitization was reflected in flight velocity, track angle, turning rate upon entering and exiting the broad odour plume and, ultimately, in the source-finding rate. In Ae. aegypti, CO2 thus functions as a ;releaser' for a higher sensitivity and responsiveness to skin odours. The initially low responsiveness of mosquitoes to skin odours, their high sensitivity to CO2, and the sensitization of the olfactory circuitry by CO2 are ecologically relevant, because rapidly fluctuating CO2 levels reliably signal a potential host. Possible mechanisms of the instantaneous sensitization are considered.

Chemical-exchange-sensitive MRI of amide, amine and NOE at 9.4 T versus 15.2 T.

PubMed

Chung, Julius Juhyun; Choi, Wonmin; Jin, Tao; Lee, Jung Hee; Kim, Seong-Gi

2017-09-01

Chemical exchange (CE)-sensitive MRI benefits greatly from stronger magnetic fields; however, field effects on CE-sensitive imaging have not yet been studied well in vivo. We have compared CE-sensitive Z-spectra and maps obtained at the fields of 9.4 T and 15.2 T in phantoms and rats with off-resonance chemical-exchange-sensitive spin lock (CESL), which is similar to conventional chemical exchange saturation transfer. At higher fields, the background peak at water resonance has less spread and the exchange rate relative to chemical shift decreases, thus CESL intensity is dependent on B 0 . For the in vivo amide and nuclear Overhauser enhancement (NOE) composite resonances of rat brains, intensities were similar for both magnetic fields, but effective amide proton transfer and NOE values obtained with three-point quantification or a curve fitting method were larger at 15.2 T due to the reduced spread of attenuation at the direct water resonance. When using intermediate exchange-sensitive irradiation parameters, the amine proton signal was 65% higher at 15.2 T than at 9.4 T due to a reduced ratio of exchange rate to chemical shift. In summary, increasing magnetic field provides enhancements to CE-sensitive signals in the intermediate exchange regime and reduces contamination from background signals in the slow exchange regime. Consequently, ultrahigh magnetic field is advantageous for CE-sensitive MRI, especially for amine and hydroxyl protons. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Testosterone and Androgen Receptor Sensitivity in Relation to Hyperactivity Symptoms in Boys with Autism Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and hyperactivity symptoms exhibit an incidence that is male-biased. Thus androgen activity can be considered a plausible biological risk factor for these disorders. However, there is insufficient information about the association between increased androgen activity and hyperactivity symptoms in children with ASD. Methods In the present study, the relationship between parameters of androgenicity (plasmatic testosterone levels and androgen receptor sensitivity) and hyperactivity in 60 boys (age 3–15) with ASD is investigated. Given well documented differences in parent and trained examiners ratings of symptom severity, we employed a standardized parent`s questionnaire (Nisonger Child Behavior Rating Form) as well as a direct examiner`s rating (Autism diagnostic observation schedule) for assessment of hyperactivity symptoms. Results Although it was found there was no significant association between actual plasmatic testosterone levels and hyperactivity symptoms, the number of CAG triplets was significantly negatively correlated with hyperactivity symptoms (R2 = 0.118, p = 0.007) in the sample, indicating increased androgen receptor sensitivity in association with hyperactivity symptoms. Direct trained examiner´s assessment appeared to be a relevant method for evaluating of behavioral problems in the investigation of biological underpinnings of these problems in our study. Conclusions A potential ASD subtype characterized by increased rates of hyperactivity symptoms might have distinct etiopathogenesis and require a specific behavioral and pharmacological approach. We propose an increase of androgen receptor sensitivity as a biomarker for a specific ASD subtype accompanied with hyperactivity symptoms. Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for practice and future research. PMID:26910733

Probing glaucoma visual damage by rarebit perimetry.

PubMed

Brusini, P; Salvetat, M L; Parisi, L; Zeppieri, M

2005-02-01

To compare rarebit perimetry (RBP) with standard achromatic perimetry (SAP) in detecting early glaucomatous functional damage. 43 patients with ocular hypertension (OH), 39 with early primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), and 41 controls were considered. Visual fields were assessed using the Humphrey field analyser (HFA) 30-2 and RBP tests. Differences among the groups were evaluated using Student-Newman-Keuls and chi(2) tests. Correlation between HFA and RBP parameters was assessed using the Pearson's correlation coefficients and regression analysis. Sensitivity and specificity of RBP in detecting early glaucomatous visual damage were calculated with different algorithms. RBP-mean hit rate (MHR) was respectively 88.6% (SD 4.8%) in controls; 79.1% (10.9%) in the OH group; 64.3% (13.8%) in the POAG group (differences statistically significant). Good correlation in the POAG group was found between HFA-mean deviation and RBP-MHR. Largest AROC (0.95) and optimal sensitivity (97.4%) were obtained when an abnormal RBP test was defined as having (at least 1): MHR <80%; >15 areas with a non-hit rate of >10%; > or =2 areas with a non-hit rate of >50%; at least one area with a non-hit rate of > or =70%. The RBP appeared to be a rapid, comfortable, and easily available perimetric test (requiring only a PC device), showing a high sensitivity and specificity in detecting early glaucomatous visual field defects.

[Analysis and experimental verification of sensitivity and SNR of laser warning receiver].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Long; Wang, Ming; Tian, Er-Ming; Li, Xiao; Wang, Zhi-Bin; Zhang, Yue

2009-01-01

In order to countermeasure increasingly serious threat from hostile laser in modern war, it is urgent to do research on laser warning technology and system, and the sensitivity and signal to noise ratio (SNR) are two important performance parameters in laser warning system. In the present paper, based on the signal statistical detection theory, a method for calculation of the sensitivity and SNR in coherent detection laser warning receiver (LWR) has been proposed. Firstly, the probabilities of the laser signal and receiver noise were analyzed. Secondly, based on the threshold detection theory and Neyman-Pearson criteria, the signal current equation was established by introducing detection probability factor and false alarm rate factor, then, the mathematical expressions of sensitivity and SNR were deduced. Finally, by using method, the sensitivity and SNR of the sinusoidal grating laser warning receiver developed by our group were analyzed, and the theoretic calculation and experimental results indicate that the SNR analysis method is feasible, and can be used in performance analysis of LWR.

An optimal policy for deteriorating items with time-proportional deterioration rate and constant and time-dependent linear demand rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Trailokyanath; Mishra, Pandit Jagatananda; Pattanayak, Hadibandhu

2017-12-01

In this paper, an economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory model for a deteriorating item is developed with the following characteristics: (i) The demand rate is deterministic and two-staged, i.e., it is constant in first part of the cycle and linear function of time in the second part. (ii) Deterioration rate is time-proportional. (iii) Shortages are not allowed to occur. The optimal cycle time and the optimal order quantity have been derived by minimizing the total average cost. A simple solution procedure is provided to illustrate the proposed model. The article concludes with a numerical example and sensitivity analysis of various parameters as illustrations of the theoretical results.

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Cybernetic modeling based on pathway analysis for Penicillium chrysogenum fed-batch fermentation.

PubMed

Geng, Jun; Yuan, Jingqi

2010-08-01

A macrokinetic model employing cybernetic methodology is proposed to describe mycelium growth and penicillin production. Based on the primordial and complete metabolic network of Penicillium chrysogenum found in the literature, the modeling procedure is guided by metabolic flux analysis and cybernetic modeling framework. The abstracted cybernetic model describes the transients of the consumption rates of the substrates, the assimilation rates of intermediates, the biomass growth rate, as well as the penicillin formation rate. Combined with the bioreactor model, these reaction rates are linked with the most important state variables, i.e., mycelium, substrate and product concentrations. Simplex method is used to estimate the sensitive parameters of the model. Finally, validation of the model is carried out with 20 batches of industrial-scale penicillin cultivation.

Emotional effects of startling background music during reading news reports: The moderating influence of dispositional BIS and BAS sensitivities.

PubMed

Ravaja, Niklas; Kallinen, Kari

2004-07-01

We examined the moderating influence of dispositional behavioral inhibition system (BIS) and behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivities on the relationship of startling background music with emotion-related subjective and physiological responses elicited during reading news reports, and with memory performance among 26 adult men and women. Physiological parameters measured were respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), electrodermal activity (EDA), and facial electromyography (EMG). The results showed that, among high BAS individuals, news stories with startling background music were rated as more interesting and elicited higher zygomatic EMG activity and RSA than news stories with non-startling music. Among low BAS individuals, news stories with startling background music were rated as less pleasant and more arousing and prompted higher EDA. No BIS-related effects or effects on memory were found. Startling background music may have adverse (e.g., negative arousal) or beneficial effects (e.g., a positive emotional state and stronger positive engagement) depending on dispositional BAS sensitivity of an individual. Actual or potential applications of this research include the personalization of media presentations when using modern media and communications technologies.

Effects of SKF-83566 and haloperidol on performance on progressive ratio schedules maintained by sucrose and corn oil reinforcement: quantitative analysis using a new model derived from the Mathematical Principles of Reinforcement (MPR).

PubMed

Olarte-Sánchez, C M; Valencia-Torres, L; Cassaday, H J; Bradshaw, C M; Szabadi, E

2013-12-01

Mathematical models can assist the interpretation of the effects of interventions on schedule-controlled behaviour and help to differentiate between processes that may be confounded in traditional performance measures such as response rate and the breakpoint in progressive ratio (PR) schedules. The effects of a D1-like dopamine receptor antagonist, 8-bromo-2,3,4,5-tetrahydro-3-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-3-benzazepin-7-ol hydrobromide (SKF-83566), and a D2-like receptor antagonist, haloperidol, on rats' performance on PR schedules maintained by sucrose and corn oil reinforcers were assessed using a new model derived from Killeen's (Behav Brain Sci 17:105-172, 1994) Mathematical Principles of Reinforcement. Separate groups of rats were trained under a PR schedule using sucrose or corn oil reinforcers. SKF-83566 (0.015 and 0.03 mg kg(-1)) and haloperidol (0.05 and 0.1 mg kg(-1)) were administered intraperitoneally (five administrations of each treatment). Running and overall response rates in successive ratios were analysed using the new model, and estimates of the model's parameters were compared between treatments. Haloperidol reduced a (the parameter expressing incentive value) in the case of both reinforcers, but did not affect the parameters related to response time and post-reinforcement pausing. SKF-83566 reduced a and k (the parameter expressing sensitivity of post-reinforcement pausing to the prior inter-reinforcement interval) in the case of sucrose, but did not affect any of the parameters in the case of corn oil. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that blockade of both D1-like and D2-like receptors reduces the incentive value of sucrose, whereas the incentive value of corn oil is more sensitive to blockade of D2-like than D1-like receptors.

Material and morphology parameter sensitivity analysis in particulate composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoyu; Oskay, Caglar

2017-12-01

This manuscript presents a novel parameter sensitivity analysis framework for damage and failure modeling of particulate composite materials subjected to dynamic loading. The proposed framework employs global sensitivity analysis to study the variance in the failure response as a function of model parameters. In view of the computational complexity of performing thousands of detailed microstructural simulations to characterize sensitivities, Gaussian process (GP) surrogate modeling is incorporated into the framework. In order to capture the discontinuity in response surfaces, the GP models are integrated with a support vector machine classification algorithm that identifies the discontinuities within response surfaces. The proposed framework is employed to quantify variability and sensitivities in the failure response of polymer bonded particulate energetic materials under dynamic loads to material properties and morphological parameters that define the material microstructure. Particular emphasis is placed on the identification of sensitivity to interfaces between the polymer binder and the energetic particles. The proposed framework has been demonstrated to identify the most consequential material and morphological parameters under vibrational and impact loads.

Method for estimating spatially variable seepage loss and hydraulic conductivity in intermittent and ephemeral streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niswonger, R.G.; Prudic, David E.; Fogg, G.E.; Stonestrom, David A.; Buckland, E.M.

2008-01-01

A method is presented for estimating seepage loss and streambed hydraulic conductivity along intermittent and ephemeral streams using streamflow front velocities in initially dry channels. The method uses the kinematic wave equation for routing streamflow in channels coupled to Philip's equation for infiltration. The coupled model considers variations in seepage loss both across and along the channel. Water redistribution in the unsaturated zone is also represented in the model. Sensitivity of the streamflow front velocity to parameters used for calculating seepage loss and for routing streamflow shows that the streambed hydraulic conductivity has the greatest sensitivity for moderate to large seepage loss rates. Channel roughness, geometry, and slope are most important for low seepage loss rates; however, streambed hydraulic conductivity is still important for values greater than 0.008 m/d. Two example applications are presented to demonstrate the utility of the method.

Sensitivity of storage field performance to geologic and cavern design parameters in salt domes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehgartner, Brian L.; Park, Byoung Yoon

2009-03-01

A sensitivity study was performed utilizing a three dimensional finite element model to assess allowable cavern field sizes for strategic petroleum reserve salt domes. A potential exists for tensile fracturing and dilatancy damage to salt that can compromise the integrity of a cavern field in situations where high extraction ratios exist. The effects of salt creep rate, depth of salt dome top, dome size, caprock thickness, elastic moduli of caprock and surrounding rock, lateral stress ratio of surrounding rock, cavern size, depth of cavern, and number of caverns are examined numerically. As a result, a correlation table between the parametersmore » and the impact on the performance of storage field was established. In general, slower salt creep rates, deeper depth of salt dome top, larger elastic moduli of caprock and surrounding rock, and a smaller radius of cavern are better for structural performance of the salt dome.« less

Outcompeting nitrite-oxidizing bacteria in single-stage nitrogen removal in sewage treatment plants: a model-based study.

PubMed

Pérez, Julio; Lotti, Tommaso; Kleerebezem, Robbert; Picioreanu, Cristian; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

2014-12-01

This model-based study investigated the mechanisms and operational window for efficient repression of nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB) in an autotrophic nitrogen removal process. The operation of a continuous single-stage granular sludge process was simulated for nitrogen removal from pretreated sewage at 10 °C. The effects of the residual ammonium concentration were explicitly analyzed with the model. Competition for oxygen between ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and NOB was found to be essential for NOB repression even when the suppression of nitrite oxidation is assisted by nitrite reduction by anammox (AMX). The nitrite half-saturation coefficient of NOB and AMX proved non-sensitive for the model output. The maximum specific growth rate of AMX bacteria proved a sensitive process parameter, because higher rates would provide a competitive advantage for AMX. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A goodness-of-fit test for capture-recapture model M(t) under closure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

1999-01-01

A new, fully efficient goodness-of-fit test for the time-specific closed-population capture-recapture model M(t) is presented. This test is based on the residual distribution of the capture history data given the maximum likelihood parameter estimates under model M(t), is partitioned into informative components, and is based on chi-square statistics. Comparison of this test with Leslie's test (Leslie, 1958, Journal of Animal Ecology 27, 84- 86) for model M(t), using Monte Carlo simulations, shows the new test generally outperforms Leslie's test. The new test is frequently computable when Leslie's test is not, has Type I error rates that are closer to nominal error rates than Leslie's test, and is sensitive to behavioral variation and heterogeneity in capture probabilities. Leslie's test is not sensitive to behavioral variation in capture probabilities but, when computable, has greater power to detect heterogeneity than the new test.

Reduction of low frequency vibration of truck driver and seating system through system parameter identification, sensitivity analysis and active control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xu; Bi, Fengrong; Du, Haiping

2018-05-01

This paper aims to develop an 5-degree-of-freedom driver and seating system model for optimal vibration control. A new method for identification of the driver seating system parameters from experimental vibration measurement has been developed. The parameter sensitivity analysis has been conducted considering the random excitation frequency and system parameter uncertainty. The most and least sensitive system parameters for the transmissibility ratio have been identified. The optimised PID controllers have been developed to reduce the driver's body vibration.

Rapid Debris Analysis Project Task 3 Final Report - Sensitivity of Fallout to Source Parameters, Near-Detonation Environment Material Properties, Topography, and Meteorology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, Peter

2014-01-24

This report describes the sensitivity of predicted nuclear fallout to a variety of model input parameters, including yield, height of burst, particle and activity size distribution parameters, wind speed, wind direction, topography, and precipitation. We investigate sensitivity over a wide but plausible range of model input parameters. In addition, we investigate a specific example with a relatively narrow range to illustrate the potential for evaluating uncertainties in predictions when there are more precise constraints on model parameters.

Geoelectrical inference of mass transfer parameters using temporal moments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Singha, Kamini

2008-01-01

We present an approach to infer mass transfer parameters based on (1) an analytical model that relates the temporal moments of mobile and bulk concentration and (2) a bicontinuum modification to Archie's law. Whereas conventional geochemical measurements preferentially sample from the mobile domain, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is sensitive to bulk electrical conductivity and, thus, electrolytic solute in both the mobile and immobile domains. We demonstrate the new approach, in which temporal moments of collocated mobile domain conductivity (i.e., conventional sampling) and ERT‐estimated bulk conductivity are used to calculate heterogeneous mass transfer rate and immobile porosity fractions in a series of numerical column experiments.

Effects of automobile steering characteristics on driver/vehicle system performance in discrete maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, R. H.; Mcruer, D. T.

1975-01-01

A series of discrete maneuver tasks were used to evaluate the effects of steering gain and directional mode dynamic parameters on driver/vehicle responses. The importance and ranking of these parameters were evaluated through changes in subjective driver ratings and performance measures obtained from transient maneuvers such as a double lane change, an emergency lane change, and an unexpected obstacle. The unexpected obstacle maneuver proved more sensitive to individual driver differences than to vehicle differences. Results were based on full scale tests with an experienced test driver evaluating many different dynamic configurations plus seventeen ordinary drivers evaluating six key configurations.

Spiral diffusion of rotating self-propellers with stochastic perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nourhani, Amir; Ebbens, Stephen J.; Gibbs, John G.; Lammert, Paul E.

2016-09-01

Translationally diffusive behavior arising from the combination of orientational diffusion and powered motion at microscopic scales is a known phenomenon, but the peculiarities of the evolution of expected position conditioned on initial position and orientation have been neglected. A theory is given of the spiral motion of the mean trajectory depending upon propulsion speed, angular velocity, orientational diffusion, and rate of random chirality reversal. We demonstrate the experimental accessibility of this effect using both tadpole-like and Janus sphere dimer rotating motors. Sensitivity of the mean trajectory to the kinematic parameters suggest that it may be a useful way to determine those parameters.

Validation and sensitivity of the FINE Bayesian network for forecasting aquatic exposure to nano-silver.

PubMed

Money, Eric S; Barton, Lauren E; Dawson, Joseph; Reckhow, Kenneth H; Wiesner, Mark R

2014-03-01

The adaptive nature of the Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment (FINE) Bayesian network is explored. We create an updated FINE model (FINEAgNP-2) for predicting aquatic exposure concentrations of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) by combining the expert-based parameters from the baseline model established in previous work with literature data related to particle behavior, exposure, and nano-ecotoxicology via parameter learning. We validate the AgNP forecast from the updated model using mesocosm-scale field data and determine the sensitivity of several key variables to changes in environmental conditions, particle characteristics, and particle fate. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the FINEAgNP-2 model increased approximately 70% over the baseline model, with an error rate of only 20%, suggesting that FINE is a reliable tool to predict aquatic concentrations of nano-silver. Sensitivity analysis suggests that fractal dimension, particle diameter, conductivity, time, and particle fate have the most influence on aquatic exposure given the current knowledge; however, numerous knowledge gaps can be identified to suggest further research efforts that will reduce the uncertainty in subsequent exposure and risk forecasts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nuclear morphology for the detection of alterations in bronchial cells from lung cancer: an attempt to improve sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Fafin-Lefevre, Mélanie; Morlais, Fabrice; Guittet, Lydia; Clin, Bénédicte; Launoy, Guy; Galateau-Sallé, Françoise; Plancoulaine, Benoît; Herlin, Paulette; Letourneux, Marc

2011-08-01

To identify which morphologic or densitometric parameters are modified in cell nuclei from bronchopulmonary cancer based on 18 parameters involving shape, intensity, chromatin, texture, and DNA content and develop a bronchopulmonary cancer screening method relying on analysis of sputum sample cell nuclei. A total of 25 sputum samples from controls and 22 bronchial aspiration samples from patients presenting with bronchopulmonary cancer who were professionally exposed to cancer were used. After Feulgen staining, 18 morphologic and DNA content parameters were measured on cell nuclei, via image cytom- etry. A method was developed for analyzing distribution quantiles, compared with simply interpreting mean values, to characterize morphologic modifications in cell nuclei. Distribution analysis of parameters enabled us to distinguish 13 of 18 parameters that demonstrated significant differences between controls and cancer cases. These parameters, used alone, enabled us to distinguish two population types, with both sensitivity and specificity > 70%. Three parameters offered 100% sensitivity and specificity. When mean values offered high sensitivity and specificity, comparable or higher sensitivity and specificity values were observed for at least one of the corresponding quantiles. Analysis of modification in morphologic parameters via distribution analysis proved promising for screening bronchopulmonary cancer from sputum.

Dynamic Experiments and Constitutive Model Performance for Polycarbonate

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

phase disabled. Note, positive stress is tensile and negative is compressive ....28 Figure 23. Parameter sensitivity showing numerical contours of axial ... compressive . For the no alpha and no beta cases shown in the axial stress plots of figure 23 at 40 s, an increase in radial compression as compared...traditional Taylor cylinder impact experiment, which achieves large strain and high-strain-rate deformation but under hydrostatic compression

Simulated stand tests and centrifuge training to prevent orthostatic intolerance on Earth, moon, and Mars.

PubMed

Coats, Brandon W; Sharp, M Keith

2010-03-01

One proposed method to overcome postflight orthostatic intolerance is for astronauts to undergo inflight centrifugation. Cardiovascular responses were compared between centrifuge and gravitational conditions using a seven-compartment cardiovascular model. Vascular resistance, heart rate, and stroke volume values were adopted from literature, while compartmental volumes and compliances were derived from impedance plethysmography of subjects (n=8) riding on a centrifuge. Three different models were developed to represent the typical male subject who completed a 10-min postflight stand test ("male finisher"), "non-finishing male" and "female" (all non-finishers). A sensitivity analysis found that both cardiac output and arterial pressure were most sensitive to total blood volume. Simulated stand tests showed that female astronauts were more susceptible to orthostatic intolerance due to lower initial blood pressure and higher pressure threshold for presyncope. Rates of blood volume loss by capillary filtration were found to be equivalent in female and male non-finishers, but four times smaller in male finishers. For equivalent times to presyncope during centrifugation as those during constant gravity, lower G forces at the level of the heart were required. Centrifuge G levels to match other cardiovascular parameters varied depending on the parameter, centrifuge arm length, and the gravity level being matched.

Phylogeny and size differentially influence dissolved Cd and Zn bioaccumulation parameters among closely related aquatic insects.

PubMed

Poteat, Monica D; Buchwalter, David B

2014-05-06

Evolutionarily distinct lineages can vary markedly in their accumulation of, and sensitivity to, contaminants. However, less is known about variability among closely related species. Here, we compared dissolved Cd and Zn bioaccumulation in 19 species spanning two species-rich aquatic insect families: Ephemerellidae (order Ephemeroptera (mayflies)), generalized to be metal sensitive, and Hydropsychidae (order Trichoptera (caddisflies)), generalized to be metal tolerant. Across all species, Zn and Cd uptake rate constants (k(u)s), efflux rate constants (k(e)s) and bioconcentration factors (BCFs) strongly covaried, suggesting that these metals share transport pathways in these distinct lineages. K(u)s and BCFs were substantially larger in Ephemerellidae than in Hydropsychidae, whereas k(e)s did not dramatically differ between the two families. Body size played an important role in driving ku differences among species, but had no influence on k(e)s. While familial differences in metal bioconcentration were striking, each family exhibited tremendous variability in all bioaccumulation parameters. At finer levels of taxonomic resolution (within families), phylogeny did not account for differences in metal bioaccumulation. These findings suggest that intrafamily variability can be profound and have important practical implications in that we need to better understand how well "surrogate species" represent their fellow congeners and family members.

Higher psychological and psychovegetative strain in adolescents with atypical pigment naevi.

PubMed

Trapp, Michael; Egger, Josef Wilhelm; Kapfhammer, Hans-Peter; Trapp, Eva-Maria; Rohrer, Peter Michael; Hörlesberger, Nina; Schwantzer, Gerold; Komericki, Peter; Linder, Michael Dennis; Lvov, Andrey; Baulmann, Johannes; Richtig, Erika

2015-01-01

An observational, exploratory, cross-sectional study was performed to assess whether the presence of atypical naevi (AN) in adolescents is associated with psychological and psychovegetative stress parameters. Fifty-one students of a secondary school in Graz, Austria, completed a defined test procedure consisting of an initial period of rest, a standardised mental stress task, another period rest and a questionnaire, the change-sensitive symptom list (ASS-SYM). Electrocardiogram and blood pressure were recorded continuously. The study population was divided in two groups: probands without AN (NAN, n = 33), and probands with at least one AN (n = 18). We found higher values for the AN group in all scales of ASS-SYM, reaching statistical significance in the dimensions "nervousness and mental tension" (p = 0.025), "psychophysiological dysregulation" (p = 0.020), burden of pain" (p = 0.023) and "general symptoms and problems" (p = 0.031). Regarding physiological parameters, the AN group showed higher vegetative strain reflected in heart rate and heart rate varibility during the periods of rest as well as a reduced baroreceptor sensitivity. On the basis of our results, the presence of AN in adolescents seems to be associated with a higher vegetative arousal. Additionally, participants with AN complained significantly more often about stress-associated general psychological symptoms and problems.

Real-time distributed fiber optic sensor for security systems: Performance, event classification and nuisance mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, Seedahmed S.; Visagathilagar, Yuvaraja; Katsifolis, Jim

2012-09-01

The success of any perimeter intrusion detection system depends on three important performance parameters: the probability of detection (POD), the nuisance alarm rate (NAR), and the false alarm rate (FAR). The most fundamental parameter, POD, is normally related to a number of factors such as the event of interest, the sensitivity of the sensor, the installation quality of the system, and the reliability of the sensing equipment. The suppression of nuisance alarms without degrading sensitivity in fiber optic intrusion detection systems is key to maintaining acceptable performance. Signal processing algorithms that maintain the POD and eliminate nuisance alarms are crucial for achieving this. In this paper, a robust event classification system using supervised neural networks together with a level crossings (LCs) based feature extraction algorithm is presented for the detection and recognition of intrusion and non-intrusion events in a fence-based fiber-optic intrusion detection system. A level crossings algorithm is also used with a dynamic threshold to suppress torrential rain-induced nuisance alarms in a fence system. Results show that rain-induced nuisance alarms can be suppressed for rainfall rates in excess of 100 mm/hr with the simultaneous detection of intrusion events. The use of a level crossing based detection and novel classification algorithm is also presented for a buried pipeline fiber optic intrusion detection system for the suppression of nuisance events and discrimination of intrusion events. The sensor employed for both types of systems is a distributed bidirectional fiber-optic Mach-Zehnder (MZ) interferometer.

Poor horse traders: large mammals trade survival for reproduction during the process of feralization

PubMed Central

Grange, Sophie; Duncan, Patrick; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

We investigated density dependence on the demographic parameters of a population of Camargue horses (Equus caballus), individually monitored and unmanaged for eight years. We also analysed the contributions of individual demographic parameters to changes in the population growth rates. The decrease in resources caused a loss of body condition. Adult male survival was not affected, but the survival of foals and adult females decreased with increasing density. Prime-aged females maintained high reproductive performance at high density, and their survival decreased. The higher survival of adult males compared with females at high density presumably results from higher investment in reproduction by mares. The high fecundity in prime-aged females, even when at high density, may result from artificial selection for high reproductive performance, which is known to have occurred in all the major domestic ungulates. Other studies suggest that feral ungulates including cattle and sheep, as these horses, respond differently from wild ungulates to increases in density, by trading adult survival for reproduction. As a consequence, populations of feral animals should oscillate more strongly than their wild counterparts, since they should be both more invasive (as they breed faster), and more sensitive to harsh environmental conditions (as the population growth rate of long-lived species is consistently more sensitive to a given proportional change in adult survival than to the same change in any other vital rate). If this principle proves to be general, it has important implications for management of populations of feral ungulates. PMID:19324787

Estimation of Dynamical Parameters in Atmospheric Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenig, Mark O.

2004-01-01

In this study a new technique is used to derive dynamical parameters out of atmospheric data sets. This technique, called the structure tensor technique, can be used to estimate dynamical parameters such as motion, source strengths, diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. The fundamental algorithm will be extended to the analysis of multi- channel (e.g. multi trace gas) image sequences and to provide solutions to the extended aperture problem. In this study sensitivity studies have been performed to determine the usability of this technique for data sets with different resolution in time and space and different dimensions.

Sensitivity Analysis of Repeat Track Estimation Techniques for Detection of Elevation Change in Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harpold, R. E.; Urban, T. J.; Schutz, B. E.

2008-12-01

Interest in elevation change detection in the polar regions has increased recently due to concern over the potential sea level rise from the melting of the polar ice caps. Repeat track analysis can be used to estimate elevation change rate by fitting elevation data to model parameters. Several aspects of this method have been tested to improve the recovery of the model parameters. Elevation data from ICESat over Antarctica and Greenland from 2003-2007 are used to test several grid sizes and types, such as grids based on latitude and longitude and grids centered on the ICESat reference groundtrack. Different sets of parameters are estimated, some of which include seasonal terms or alternate types of slopes (linear, quadratic, etc.). In addition, the effects of including crossovers and other solution constraints are evaluated. Simulated data are used to infer potential errors due to unmodeled parameters.

Critique and sensitivity analysis of the compensation function used in the LMS Hudson River striped bass models. Environmental Sciences Division publication No. 944

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Winkle, W.; Christensen, S.W.; Kauffman, G.

1976-12-01

The description and justification for the compensation function developed and used by Lawler, Matusky and Skelly Engineers (LMS) (under contract to Consolidated Edison Company of New York) in their Hudson River striped bass models are presented. A sensitivity analysis of this compensation function is reported, based on computer runs with a modified version of the LMS completely mixed (spatially homogeneous) model. Two types of sensitivity analysis were performed: a parametric study involving at least five levels for each of the three parameters in the compensation function, and a study of the form of the compensation function itself, involving comparison ofmore » the LMS function with functions having no compensation at standing crops either less than or greater than the equilibrium standing crops. For the range of parameter values used in this study, estimates of percent reduction are least sensitive to changes in YS, the equilibrium standing crop, and most sensitive to changes in KXO, the minimum mortality rate coefficient. Eliminating compensation at standing crops either less than or greater than the equilibrium standing crops results in higher estimates of percent reduction. For all values of KXO and for values of YS and KX at and above the baseline values, eliminating compensation at standing crops less than the equilibrium standing crops results in a greater increase in percent reduction than eliminating compensation at standing crops greater than the equilibrium standing crops.« less

Transport, biodegradation and isotopic fractionation of chlorinated ethenes: modeling and parameter estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Béranger, Sandra C.; Sleep, Brent E.; Lollar, Barbara Sherwood; Monteagudo, Fernando Perez

2005-01-01

An analytical, one-dimensional, multi-species, reactive transport model for simulating the concentrations and isotopic signatures of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and its daughter products was developed. The simulation model was coupled to a genetic algorithm (GA) combined with a gradient-based (GB) method to estimate the first order decay coefficients and enrichment factors. In testing with synthetic data, the hybrid GA-GB method reduced the computational requirements for parameter estimation by a factor as great as 300. The isotopic signature profiles were observed to be more sensitive than the concentration profiles to estimates of both the first order decay constants and enrichment factors. Including isotopic data for parameter estimation significantly increased the GA convergence rate and slightly improved the accuracy of estimation of first order decay constants.

Results of an integrated structure/control law design sensitivity analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilbert, Michael G.

1989-01-01

A design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Cost, Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, which predicts change in the optimal control law due to changes in fixed problem parameters using analytical sensitivity equations is discussed. Numerical results of a design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimally controlled aircraft's response to various problem formulation and physical aircraft parameters is determined. These results are used to predict the aircraft's new optimally controlled response if the parameter was to have some other nominal value during the control law design process. The sensitivity results are validated by recomputing the optimal control law for discrete variations in parameters, computing the new actual aircraft response, and comparing with the predicted response. These results show an improvement in sensitivity accuracy for integrated design purposes over methods which do not include changes in the optimal control law. Use of the analytical LQG sensitivity expressions is also shown to be more efficient than finite difference methods for the computation of the equivalent sensitivity information.

Global Sensitivity Applied to Dynamic Combined Finite Discrete Element Methods for Fracture Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godinez, H. C.; Rougier, E.; Osthus, D.; Srinivasan, G.

2017-12-01

Fracture propagation play a key role for a number of application of interest to the scientific community. From dynamic fracture processes like spall and fragmentation in metals and detection of gas flow in static fractures in rock and the subsurface, the dynamics of fracture propagation is important to various engineering and scientific disciplines. In this work we implement a global sensitivity analysis test to the Hybrid Optimization Software Suite (HOSS), a multi-physics software tool based on the combined finite-discrete element method, that is used to describe material deformation and failure (i.e., fracture and fragmentation) under a number of user-prescribed boundary conditions. We explore the sensitivity of HOSS for various model parameters that influence how fracture are propagated through a material of interest. The parameters control the softening curve that the model relies to determine fractures within each element in the mesh, as well a other internal parameters which influence fracture behavior. The sensitivity method we apply is the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST), which is a global sensitivity method to explore how each parameter influence the model fracture and to determine the key model parameters that have the most impact on the model. We present several sensitivity experiments for different combination of model parameters and compare against experimental data for verification.

Columbia: The first 5 flights entry heating data series. Volume 1: An overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, S. D.

1984-01-01

Entry heating flight data and wind tunnel data on the lower windward and upper lee side centerline, lower wing 50% and 80% semi-spans, side fuselage and payload bay door, Z-400 and 440 trace aft of X/L=0.2, and OMS Pod trace 3, are presented for the first five flights of the space shuttle orbiter. Heating rate distributions are presented in terms of normalized shock Reynolds number to show the sensitivity of heating to these parameters. The surface heating rates and temperatures were obtained via the JSC NONLIN/INVERSE computer program.

TRANSCRIPTIONAL PROFILING USING THE FLOWTHROUGH GENOSENSOR FINAL CRADA REPORT C/ORNL97-00472

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doktycz, M. J.; Yang, H.

1999-06-01

A Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation (Contractor) and Gene Logic, Inc., (Participant) was carried out to evaluate the technical feasibility study of the application of the flowthrough genosensor for gene expression (transcriptional) profiling, over the current industry practice of using flat surface hybridization arrays to monitor the relative abundance of individual mRNA species in a cell. Various parameters, including substrate preparation, flow rates, hybridization conditions and sample concentrations, were evaluated on the flowthrough genosensor. The superiority of the flowthrough genosensor, in terms of hybridization rate and sensitivity were established.

Identifying key sources of uncertainty in the modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Sweetapple, Christine; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2013-09-01

This study investigates sources of uncertainty in the modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment, through the use of local and global sensitivity analysis tools, and contributes to an in-depth understanding of wastewater treatment modelling by revealing critical parameters and parameter interactions. One-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis is used to screen model parameters and identify those with significant individual effects on three performance indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions, effluent quality and operational cost. Sobol's method enables identification of parameters with significant higher order effects and of particular parameter pairs to which model outputs are sensitive. Use of a variance-based global sensitivity analysis tool to investigate parameter interactions enables identification of important parameters not revealed in one-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These interaction effects have not been considered in previous studies and thus provide a better understanding wastewater treatment plant model characterisation. It was found that uncertainty in modelled nitrous oxide emissions is the primary contributor to uncertainty in total greenhouse gas emissions, due largely to the interaction effects of three nitrogen conversion modelling parameters. The higher order effects of these parameters are also shown to be a key source of uncertainty in effluent quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sedimentation and the Economics of Selecting an Optimum Reservoir Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miltz, David; White, David C.

1987-08-01

This paper attempts to develop an easily reproducible methodology for the economic selection of an optimal reservoir size given an annual sedimentation rate. The optimal capacity is that at which the marginal cost of constructing additional storage capacity is equal to the dredging costs avoided by having that additional capacity available to store sediment. The cost implications of misestimating dredging costs, construction costs, and sediment delivery rates are investigated. In general, it is shown that oversizing is a rational response to uncertainty in the estimation of parameters. The sensitivity of the results to alternative discount rates is also discussed. The theoretical discussion is illustrated with a case study drawn from Highland Silver Lake in southwestern Illinois.

Drosophila melanogaster Natural Variation Affects Growth Dynamics of Infecting Listeria monocytogenes

PubMed Central

Hotson, Alejandra Guzmán; Schneider, David S.

2015-01-01

We find that in a Listeria monocytogenes/Drosophila melanogaster infection model, L. monocytogenes grows according to logistic kinetics, which means we can measure both a maximal growth rate and growth plateau for the microbe. Genetic variation of the host affects both of the pathogen growth parameters, and they can vary independently. Because growth rates and ceilings both correlate with host survival, both properties could drive evolution of the host. We find that growth rates and ceilings are sensitive to the initial infectious dose in a host genotype–dependent manner, implying that experimental results differ as we change the original challenge dose within a single strain of host. PMID:26438294

Application of identified sensitive physical parameters in reducing the uncertainty of numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Guodong; Mu, Mu

2016-04-01

An important source of uncertainty, which then causes further uncertainty in numerical simulations, is that residing in the parameters describing physical processes in numerical models. There are many physical parameters in numerical models in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, and it would cost a great deal to reduce uncertainties in all physical parameters. Therefore, finding a subset of these parameters, which are relatively more sensitive and important parameters, and reducing the errors in the physical parameters in this subset would be a far more efficient way to reduce the uncertainties involved in simulations. In this context, we present a new approach based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameter (CNOP-P) method. The approach provides a framework to ascertain the subset of those relatively more sensitive and important parameters among the physical parameters. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamical global vegetation model was utilized to test the validity of the new approach. The results imply that nonlinear interactions among parameters play a key role in the uncertainty of numerical simulations in arid and semi-arid regions of China compared to those in northern, northeastern and southern China. The uncertainties in the numerical simulations were reduced considerably by reducing the errors of the subset of relatively more sensitive and important parameters. The results demonstrate that our approach not only offers a new route to identify relatively more sensitive and important physical parameters but also that it is viable to then apply "target observations" to reduce the uncertainties in model parameters.

Relationship Between Human Physiological Parameters And Geomagnetic Variations Of Solar Origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrova, S.

This study attempts to assess the influence of increased geomagnetic activity on some human physiological parameters. The blood pressure, heart rate and general well-being of 86 volunteers were measured (the latter by means of a standardized questionnaire) on work days in autumn 2001 (01/10 to 09/11) and in spring 2002 (08/04 to 28/05). These periods were chosen because of maximal expected geomagnetic activity. Altogether, 2799 recordings were obtained and analysed. MANOVA was employed to check the significance of the influence of three factors on the physiological parameters under consideration. The three factors were the following: 1) planetary geomagnetic activity level estimated by Ap-index and divided into five levels; 2) gender - males and females; 3) blood pressure degree - persons in the group examined were divided into hypotensive, normotensive and hypertensive. Post hoc analysis was performed to elicit the significance of differences in the factors' levels. The average arterial blood pressure of the group was found to increase significantly with the increase of geomagnetic activity level. The average increment of systolic and diastolic blood pressure reached 9%, which deserves attention from a medical point of view. This effect was present irrespectively of gender. Results obtained suppose that hypertensive persons have the highest sensitivity and the hypotensive persons have the lowest sensitivity of the arterial blood pressure to increase of geomagnetic activity. The results did not show significant changes in the heart rate. The percentage of the persons who reported subjective psycho-physiological complaints was also found to increase significantly with the geomagnetic activity increase. During severe geomagnetic storms 30% of the persons examined reported subjective complaints and the highest sensitivity was revealed for the hypertensive females. The results obtained add further evidence that blood pressure seems to be affected by geomagnetic variations of solar origin. The examinations and analyses performed show that space weather prediction may be utilized for the purpose of pharmacological and regime measures to limit the adverse physiological reactions to geomagnetic storms.

Cell membrane water exchange effects in prostate DCE-MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Priest, Ryan A.; Woodward, William J.; Siddiqui, Faisal; Beer, Tomasz M.; Garzotto, Mark G.; Rooney, William D.; Springer, Charles S.

2012-05-01

Prostate Dynamic-Contrast-Enhanced (DCE) MRI often exhibits fast and extensive global contrast reagent (CR) extravasation - measured by Ktrans, a pharmacokinetic parameter proportional to its rate. This implies that the CR concentration [CR] is high in the extracellular, extravascular space (EES) during a large portion of the DCE-MRI study. Since CR is detected indirectly, through water proton signal change, the effects of equilibrium transcytolemmal water exchange may be significant in the data and thus should be admitted in DCE-MRI pharmacokinetic modeling. The implications for parameter values were investigated through simulations, and analyses of actual prostate data, with different models. Model parameter correlation and precision were also explored. A near-optimal version of the exchange-sensitized model was found. Our results indicate that ΔKtrans (the Ktrans difference returned by this version and a model assuming exchange to be effectively infinitely fast) may be a very useful biomarker for discriminating malignant from benign prostate tissue. Using an exchange-sensitized model, we find that the mean intracellular water lifetime (τi) - an exchange measure - can be meaningfully mapped for the prostate. Our results show prostate glandular zone differences in τi values.

Local sensitivity analysis for inverse problems solved by singular value decomposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.C.; Nolan, B.T.

2010-01-01

Local sensitivity analysis provides computationally frugal ways to evaluate models commonly used for resource management, risk assessment, and so on. This includes diagnosing inverse model convergence problems caused by parameter insensitivity and(or) parameter interdependence (correlation), understanding what aspects of the model and data contribute to measures of uncertainty, and identifying new data likely to reduce model uncertainty. Here, we consider sensitivity statistics relevant to models in which the process model parameters are transformed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to create SVD parameters for model calibration. The statistics considered include the PEST identifiability statistic, and combined use of the process-model parameter statistics composite scaled sensitivities and parameter correlation coefficients (CSS and PCC). The statistics are complimentary in that the identifiability statistic integrates the effects of parameter sensitivity and interdependence, while CSS and PCC provide individual measures of sensitivity and interdependence. PCC quantifies correlations between pairs or larger sets of parameters; when a set of parameters is intercorrelated, the absolute value of PCC is close to 1.00 for all pairs in the set. The number of singular vectors to include in the calculation of the identifiability statistic is somewhat subjective and influences the statistic. To demonstrate the statistics, we use the USDA’s Root Zone Water Quality Model to simulate nitrogen fate and transport in the unsaturated zone of the Merced River Basin, CA. There are 16 log-transformed process-model parameters, including water content at field capacity (WFC) and bulk density (BD) for each of five soil layers. Calibration data consisted of 1,670 observations comprising soil moisture, soil water tension, aqueous nitrate and bromide concentrations, soil nitrate concentration, and organic matter content. All 16 of the SVD parameters could be estimated by regression based on the range of singular values. Identifiability statistic results varied based on the number of SVD parameters included. Identifiability statistics calculated for four SVD parameters indicate the same three most important process-model parameters as CSS/PCC (WFC1, WFC2, and BD2), but the order differed. Additionally, the identifiability statistic showed that BD1 was almost as dominant as WFC1. The CSS/PCC analysis showed that this results from its high correlation with WCF1 (-0.94), and not its individual sensitivity. Such distinctions, combined with analysis of how high correlations and(or) sensitivities result from the constructed model, can produce important insights into, for example, the use of sensitivity analysis to design monitoring networks. In conclusion, the statistics considered identified similar important parameters. They differ because (1) with CSS/PCC can be more awkward because sensitivity and interdependence are considered separately and (2) identifiability requires consideration of how many SVD parameters to include. A continuing challenge is to understand how these computationally efficient methods compare with computationally demanding global methods like Markov-Chain Monte Carlo given common nonlinear processes and the often even more nonlinear models.

Temperature sensitivity and enzymatic mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition along an altitudinal gradient on Mount Kilimanjaro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia; Blagodatsky, Sergey; Khomyakov, Nikita; Myachina, Olga; Kuzyakov, Yakov

2016-02-01

Short-term acceleration of soil organic matter decomposition by increasing temperature conflicts with the thermal adaptation observed in long-term studies. Here we used the altitudinal gradient on Mt. Kilimanjaro to demonstrate the mechanisms of thermal adaptation of extra- and intracellular enzymes that hydrolyze cellulose, chitin and phytate and oxidize monomers (14C-glucose) in warm- and cold-climate soils. We revealed that no response of decomposition rate to temperature occurs because of a cancelling effect consisting in an increase in half-saturation constants (Km), which counteracts the increase in maximal reaction rates (Vmax with temperature). We used the parameters of enzyme kinetics to predict thresholds of substrate concentration (Scrit) below which decomposition rates will be insensitive to global warming. Increasing values of Scrit, and hence stronger canceling effects with increasing altitude on Mt. Kilimanjaro, explained the thermal adaptation of polymer decomposition. The reduction of the temperature sensitivity of Vmax along the altitudinal gradient contributed to thermal adaptation of both polymer and monomer degradation. Extrapolating the altitudinal gradient to the large-scale latitudinal gradient, these results show that the soils of cold climates with stronger and more frequent temperature variation are less sensitive to global warming than soils adapted to high temperatures.

SU-F-303-05: DCE-MRI Before and During Treatment for Prediction of Concurrent Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy Response in Head and Neck Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Y; Diwanji, T; Zhang, B

2015-06-15

Purpose: To determine the ability of pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE- MRI) acquired before and during concurrent chemotherapy and radiation therapy to predict clinical response in patients with head and neck cancer. Methods: Eleven patients underwent a DCE-MRI scan at three time points: 1–2 weeks before treatment, 4–5 weeks after treatment initiation, and 3–4 months after treatment completion. Post-processing of MRI data included correction to reduce motion artifacts. The arterial input function was obtained by measuring the dynamic tracer concentration in the jugular veins. The volume transfer constant (Ktrans), extracellular extravascular volume fraction (ve), rate constant (Kep;more » Kep = Ktrans/ve), and plasma volume fraction (vp) were computed for primary tumors and cervical nodal masses. Patients were categorized into two groups based on response to therapy at 3–4 months: responders (no evidence of disease) and partial responders (regression of disease). Responses of the primary tumor and nodes were evaluated separately. A linear classifier and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to determine the best model for discrimination of responders from partial responders. Results: When the above pharmacokinetic parameters of the primary tumor measured before and during treatment were incorporated into the linear classifier, a discriminative accuracy of 88.9%, with sensitivity =100% and specificity = 66.7%, was observed between responders (n=6) and partial responders (n=3) for the primary tumor with the corresponding accuracy = 44.4%, sensitivity = 66.7%, and specificity of 0% for nodal masses. When only pre-treatment parameters were used, the accuracy decreased to 66.7%, with sensitivity = 66.7% and specificity = 66.7% for the primary tumor and decreased to 33.3%, sensitivity of 50%, and specificity of 0% for nodal masses. Conclusion: Higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were obtained using DCE-MRI-derived pharmacokinetic parameters acquired before and during treatment as compared with those derived from the pre-treatment time-point, exclusively.« less

The Effect of Adenotonsillectomy for Childhood Sleep Apnea on Cardiometabolic Measures.

PubMed

Quante, Mirja; Wang, Rui; Weng, Jia; Rosen, Carol L; Amin, Raouf; Garetz, Susan L; Katz, Eliot; Paruthi, Shalini; Arens, Raanan; Muzumdar, Hiren; Marcus, Carole L; Ellenberg, Susan; Redline, Susan

2015-09-01

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) has been associated with cardiometabolic disease in adults. In children, this association is unclear. We evaluated the effect of early adenotonsillectomy (eAT) for treatment of OSAS on blood pressure, heart rate, lipids, glucose, insulin, and C-reactive protein. We also analyzed whether these parameters at baseline and changes at follow-up correlated with polysomnographic indices. Data collected at baseline and 7-mo follow-up were analyzed from a randomized controlled trial, the Childhood Adenotonsillectomy Trial (CHAT). Clinical referral setting from multiple centers. There were 464 children, ages 5 to 9.9 y with OSAS without severe hypoxemia. Randomization to eAT or Watchful Waiting with Supportive Care (WWSC). There was no significant change of cardiometabolic parameters over the 7-mo interval in the eAT group compared to WWSC group. However, overnight heart rate was incrementally higher in association with baseline OSAS severity (average heart rate increase of 3 beats per minute [bpm] for apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] of 2 versus 10; [standard error = 0.60]). Each 5-unit improvement in AHI and 5 mmHg improvement in peak end-tidal CO2 were estimated to reduce heart rate by 1 and 1.5 bpm, respectively. An increase in N3 sleep also was associated with small reductions in systolic blood pressure percentile. There is little variation in standard cardiometabolic parameters in children with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) but without severe hypoxemia at baseline or after intervention. Of all measures, overnight heart rate emerged as the most sensitive parameter of pediatric OSAS severity. Clinicaltrials.gov (#NCT00560859). © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Advances in tribological testing of artificial joint biomaterials using multidirectional pin-on-disk testers

PubMed Central

Baykal, D.; Siskey, R.S.; Haider, H.; Saikko, V.; Ahlroos, T.; Kurtz, S.M.

2013-01-01

The introduction of numerous formulations of Ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE), which is widely used as a bearing material in orthopedic implants, necessitated screening of bearing couples to identify promising iterations for expensive joint simulations. Pin-on-disk (POD) testers capable of multidirectional sliding can correctly rank formulations of UHMWPE with respect to their predictive in vivo wear behavior. However, there are still uncertainties regarding POD test parameters for facilitating clinically relevant wear mechanisms of UHMWPE. Studies on the development of POD testing were briefly summarized. We systematically reviewed wear rate data of UHMWPE generated by POD testers. To determine if POD testing was capable of correctly ranking bearings and if test parameters outlined in ASTM F732 enabled differentiation between wear behavior of various formulations, mean wear rates of non-irradiated, conventional (25–50 kGy) and highly crosslinked (≥90 kGy) UHMWPE were grouped and compared. The mean wear rates of non-irradiated, conventional and highly crosslinked UHMWPEs were 7.03, 5.39 and 0.67 mm3/MC. Based on studies that complied with the guidelines of ASTM F732, the mean wear rates of non-irradiated, conventional and highly crosslinked UHMWPEs were 0.32, 0.21 and 0.04 mm3/km, respectively. In both sets of results, the mean wear rate of highly crosslinked UHMPWE was smaller than both conventional and non-irradiated UHMWPEs (p<0.05). Thus, POD testers can compare highly crosslinked and conventional UHMWPEs despite different test parameters. Narrowing the allowable range for standardized test parameters could improve sensitivity of multi-axial testers in correctly ranking materials. PMID:23831149

The interaction of host genetics and disease processes in chronic livestock disease: a simulation model of ovine footrot.

PubMed

Russell, V N L; Green, L E; Bishop, S C; Medley, G F

2013-03-01

A stochastic, individual-based, simulation model of footrot in a flock of 200 ewes was developed that included flock demography, disease processes, host genetic variation for traits influencing infection and disease processes, and bacterial contamination of the environment. Sensitivity analyses were performed using ANOVA to examine the contribution of unknown parameters to outcome variation. The infection rate and bacterial death rate were the most significant factors determining the observed prevalence of footrot, as well as the heritability of resistance. The dominance of infection parameters in determining outcomes implies that observational data cannot be used to accurately estimate the strength of genetic control of underlying traits describing the infection process, i.e. resistance. Further work will allow us to address the potential for genetic selection to control ovine footrot. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Iron and manganese removal: Recent advances in modelling treatment efficiency by rapid sand filtration.

PubMed

Vries, D; Bertelkamp, C; Schoonenberg Kegel, F; Hofs, B; Dusseldorp, J; Bruins, J H; de Vet, W; van den Akker, B

2017-02-01

A model has been developed that takes into account the main characteristics of (submerged) rapid filtration: the water quality parameters of the influent water, notably pH, iron(II) and manganese(II) concentrations, homogeneous oxidation in the supernatant layer, surface sorption and heterogeneous oxidation kinetics in the filter, and filter media adsorption characteristics. Simplifying assumptions are made to enable validation in practice, while maintaining the main mechanisms involved in iron(II) and manganese(II) removal. Adsorption isotherm data collected from different Dutch treatment sites show that Fe(II)/Mn(II) adsorption may vary substantially between them, but generally increases with higher pH. The model is sensitive to (experimentally) determined adsorption parameters and the heterogeneous oxidation rate. Model results coincide with experimental values when the heterogeneous rate constants are calibrated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Propellant Composition to the Temperature Sensitivity of Composite Propellant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, Amir; Mamat, Rizalman; Amin, Makeen; Ali, Wan Khairuddin Wan

2012-09-01

The propellant composition is one of several parameter that influencing the temperature sensitivity of composite propellant. In this paper, experimental investigation of temperature sensitivity in burning rate of composite propellant was conducted. Four sets of different propellant compositions had been prepared with the combination of ammonium perchlorate (AP) as an oxidizer, aluminum (Al) as fuel and hydroxy-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) as fuel and binder. For each mixture, HTPB binder was fixed at 15% and cured with isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI). By varying AP and Al, the effect of oxidizer- fuel mixture ratio (O/F) on the whole propellant can be determined. The propellant strands were manufactured using compression molded method and burnt in a strand burner using wire technique over a range of pressure from 1 atm to 31 atm. The results obtained shows that the temperature sensitivity, a, increases with increasing O/F. Propellant p80 which has O/F ratio of 80/20 gives the highest value of temperature sensitivity which is 1.687. The results shows that the propellant composition has significant effect on the temperature sensitivity of composite propellant

Effect of Laser Power and Gas Flow Rate on Properties of Directed Energy Deposition of Titanium Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahamood, Rasheedat M.

2018-03-01

Laser metal deposition (LMD) process belongs to the directed energy deposition class of additive manufacturing processes. It is an important manufacturing technology with lots of potentials especially for the automobile and aerospace industries. The laser metal deposition process is fairly new, and the process is very sensitive to the processing parameters. There is a high level of interactions among these process parameters. The surface finish of part produced using the laser metal deposition process is dependent on the processing parameters. Also, the economy of the LMD process depends largely on steps taken to eliminate or reduce the need for secondary finishing operations. In this study, the influence of laser power and gas flow rate on the microstructure, microhardness and surface finish produced during the laser metal deposition of Ti6Al4V was investigated. The laser power was varied between 1.8 kW and 3.0 kW, while the gas flow rate was varied between 2 l/min and 4 l/min. The microstructure was studied under an optical microscope, the microhardness was studied using a Metkon microhardness indenter, while the surface roughness was studied using a Jenoptik stylus surface analyzer. The results showed that better surface finish was produced at a laser power of 3.0 kW and a gas flow rate of 4 l/min.

Selecting Sensitive Parameter Subsets in Dynamical Models With Application to Biomechanical System Identification.

PubMed

Ramadan, Ahmed; Boss, Connor; Choi, Jongeun; Peter Reeves, N; Cholewicki, Jacek; Popovich, John M; Radcliffe, Clark J

2018-07-01

Estimating many parameters of biomechanical systems with limited data may achieve good fit but may also increase 95% confidence intervals in parameter estimates. This results in poor identifiability in the estimation problem. Therefore, we propose a novel method to select sensitive biomechanical model parameters that should be estimated, while fixing the remaining parameters to values obtained from preliminary estimation. Our method relies on identifying the parameters to which the measurement output is most sensitive. The proposed method is based on the Fisher information matrix (FIM). It was compared against the nonlinear least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to guide modelers on the pros and cons of our FIM method. We present an application identifying a biomechanical parametric model of a head position-tracking task for ten human subjects. Using measured data, our method (1) reduced model complexity by only requiring five out of twelve parameters to be estimated, (2) significantly reduced parameter 95% confidence intervals by up to 89% of the original confidence interval, (3) maintained goodness of fit measured by variance accounted for (VAF) at 82%, (4) reduced computation time, where our FIM method was 164 times faster than the LASSO method, and (5) selected similar sensitive parameters to the LASSO method, where three out of five selected sensitive parameters were shared by FIM and LASSO methods.

Basic research for the geodynamics program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The mathematical models of space very long base interferometry (VLBI) observables suitable for least squares covariance analysis were derived and estimatability problems inherent in the space VLBI system were explored, including a detailed rank defect analysis and sensitivity analysis. An important aim is to carry out a comparative analysis of the mathematical models of the ground-based VLBI and space VLBI observables in order to describe the background in detail. Computer programs were developed in order to check the relations, assess errors, and analyze sensitivity. In order to investigate the estimatability of different geodetic and geodynamic parameters from the space VLBI observables, the mathematical models for time delay and time delay rate observables of space VLBI were analytically derived along with the partial derivatives with respect to the parameters. Rank defect analysis was carried out both by analytical and numerical testing of linear dependencies between the columns of the normal matrix thus formed. Definite conclusions were formed about the rank defects in the system.

Optimization of A(2)O BNR processes using ASM and EAWAG Bio-P models: model performance.

PubMed

El Shorbagy, Walid E; Radif, Nawras N; Droste, Ronald L

2013-12-01

This paper presents the performance of an optimization model for a biological nutrient removal (BNR) system using the anaerobic-anoxic-oxic (A(2)O) process. The formulated model simulates removal of organics, nitrogen, and phosphorus using a reduced International Water Association (IWA) Activated Sludge Model #3 (ASM3) model and a Swiss Federal Institute for Environmental Science and Technology (EAWAG) Bio-P module. Optimal sizing is attained considering capital and operational costs. Process performance is evaluated against the effect of influent conditions, effluent limits, and selected parameters of various optimal solutions with the following results: an increase of influent temperature from 10 degrees C to 25 degrees C decreases the annual cost by about 8.5%, an increase of influent flow from 500 to 2500 m(3)/h triples the annual cost, the A(2)O BNR system is more sensitive to variations in influent ammonia than phosphorus concentration and the maximum growth rate of autotrophic biomass was the most sensitive kinetic parameter in the optimization model.

(Bio)Sensing Using Nanoparticle Arrays: On the Effect of Analyte Transport on Sensitivity.

PubMed

Lynn, N Scott; Homola, Jiří

2016-12-20

There has recently been an extensive amount of work regarding the development of optical, electrical, and mechanical (bio)sensors employing planar arrays of surface-bound nanoparticles. The sensor output for these systems is dependent on the rate at which analyte is transported to, and interacts with, each nanoparticle in the array. There has so far been little discussion on the relationship between the design parameters of an array and the interplay of convection, diffusion, and reaction. Moreover, current methods providing such information require extensive computational simulation. Here we demonstrate that the rate of analyte transport to a nanoparticle array can be quantified analytically. We show that such rates are bound by both the rate to a single NP and that to a planar surface (having equivalent size as the array), with the specific rate determined by the fill fraction: the ratio between the total surface area used for biomolecular capture with respect to the entire sensing area. We characterize analyte transport to arrays with respect to changes in numerous parameters relevant to experiment, including variation of the nanoparticle shape and size, packing density, flow conditions, and analyte diffusivity. We also explore how analyte capture is dependent on the kinetic parameters related to an affinity-based biosensor, and furthermore, we classify the conditions under which the array might be diffusion- or reaction-limited. The results obtained herein are applicable toward the design and optimization of all (bio)sensors based on nanoparticle arrays.

The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter

2018-02-01

We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. About 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). The relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature.

Immunohistochemical study of DNA topoisomerase I, DNA topoisomerase II alpha, p53, and Ki-67 in oral preneoplastic lesions and oral squamous cell carcinomas.

PubMed

Hafian, Hilal; Venteo, Lydie; Sukhanova, Alyona; Nabiev, Igor; Lefevre, Benoît; Pluot, Michel

2004-06-01

Human DNA topoisomerase I (topo I) is the molecular target of the camptothecin group of anticancer drugs. Laboratory studies have shown that the cellular response to topo I-targeted drugs depends on the topo I expression and DNA replication rate and the apoptotic pathway activity. In this study, we tested potential indicators of the sensitivity of topo I-targeted drugs in 36 cases of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections were immunostained with monoclonal antibodies against Ki-67, p53, and topo I, and with polyclonal antibodies against DNA topoisomerase II-alpha (topo II-alpha). These markers were also tested in 18 epithelial hyperplastic lesions and 18 mild dysplasias. Immunostaining was quantified by the percentage of stained nuclei in each sample (the labeling index); 200 immunoreactive epithelial nuclei were counted per case for each antibody. The results support the possibility of using topo II-alpha staining for assessing the proliferative activity. High expression of topo II-alpha and topo I in OSCCs suggests that they may serve as potential indicators of sensitivity to topo I inhibitors. However, the apoptotic pathway assessed by p53 immunostaining was found to be uninformative. Analysis of the relationship between immunohistochemical results and clinical and pathologic parameters (the T and N stages and differentiation) showed that only the differentiation parameter correlated with the topo I expression rate. Thus, significant increase in the topo I expression in the poorly differentiated OSCCs suggests their higher sensitivity to drug treatment.

How does the sensitivity of climate affect stratospheric solar radiation management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Rowlands, D. J.; Ingram, W.; Keith, D.; Morgan, M. G.

2011-12-01

If implementation of proposals to engineer the climate through solar radiation management (SRM) ever occurs, it is likely to be contingent upon climate sensitivity. Despite this, no modeling studies have examined how the effectiveness of SRM forcings differs between the typical Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with climate sensitivities close to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) mean and ones with high climate sensitivities. Here, we use a perturbed physics ensemble modeling experiment to examine variations in the response of climate to SRM under different climate sensitivities. When SRM is used as a substitute for mitigation its ability to maintain the current climate state gets worse with increased climate sensitivity and with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, our results also demonstrate that the potential of SRM to slow climate change, even at the regional level, grows with climate sensitivity. On average, SRM reduces regional rates of temperature change by more than 90 percent and rates of precipitation change by more than 50 percent in these higher sensitivity model configurations. To investigate how SRM might behave in models with high climate sensitivity that are also consistent with recent observed climate change we perform a "perturbed physics" ensemble (PPE) modelling experiment with the climateprediction.net (cpdn) version of the HadCM3L AOGCM. Like other perturbed physics climate modelling experiments, we simulate past and future climate scenarios using a wide range of model parameter combinations that both reproduce past climate within a specified level of accuracy and simulate future climates with a wide range of climate sensitivities. We chose 43 members ("model versions") from a subset of the 1,550 from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climateprediction.net project that have data that allow restarts. We use our results to explore how much assessments of SRM that use best-estimate models, and so near-median climate sensitivity, may be ignoring important contingencies associated with implementing SRM in reality. A primary motivation for studying SRM via the injection of aerosols in the stratosphere is to evaluate its potential effectiveness as "insurance" in the case of higher-than-expected climate response to global warming. We find that this is precisely when SRM appears to be least effective in returning regional climates to their baseline states and reducing regional rates of precipitation change. On the other hand, given the very high regional temperature anomalies associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations in high sensitivity models, it is also where SRM is most effective in reducing rates of change relative to a no SRM alternative.

Comparison of NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11 oxidation kinetics in air

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Jo Jo; Ghosh, Tushar K.; Loyalka, Sudarshan K.

In this paper, the oxidation rates of several nuclear-grade graphites, NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11, were measured in air using thermogravimetry. Kinetic parameters and oxidation behavior for each grade were compared by coke type, filler grain size and microstructure. The thickness of the oxidized layer for each grade was determined by layer peeling and direct density measurements. The results for NBG-17 and IG-11 were compared with those available in the literature and our recently reported results for NBG-18 and IG-110 oxidation in air. The finer-grained graphites IG-110 and IG-11 were more oxidized than medium-grained NBG-18 and NBG-17 because of deepermore » oxidant penetration, higher porosity and higher probability of available active sites. Variation in experimental conditions also had a marked effect on the reported kinetic parameters by several studies. Finally, kinetic parameters such as activation energy and transition temperature were sensitive to air flow rates as well as sample size and geometry.« less

Comparison of NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11 oxidation kinetics in air

DOE PAGES

Lee, Jo Jo; Ghosh, Tushar K.; Loyalka, Sudarshan K.

2017-12-14

In this paper, the oxidation rates of several nuclear-grade graphites, NBG-18, NBG-17, IG-110 and IG-11, were measured in air using thermogravimetry. Kinetic parameters and oxidation behavior for each grade were compared by coke type, filler grain size and microstructure. The thickness of the oxidized layer for each grade was determined by layer peeling and direct density measurements. The results for NBG-17 and IG-11 were compared with those available in the literature and our recently reported results for NBG-18 and IG-110 oxidation in air. The finer-grained graphites IG-110 and IG-11 were more oxidized than medium-grained NBG-18 and NBG-17 because of deepermore » oxidant penetration, higher porosity and higher probability of available active sites. Variation in experimental conditions also had a marked effect on the reported kinetic parameters by several studies. Finally, kinetic parameters such as activation energy and transition temperature were sensitive to air flow rates as well as sample size and geometry.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matthias C. M. Troffaes; Gero Walter; Dana Kelly

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain a posterior distribution, which forms the basis for further inferences. In this paper, we adapt the imprecise Dirichlet model of Walley to represent epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. In this approach, epistemic uncertainty is expressed more cautiously via lower and upper expectations for each alpha-factor, along with a learning parameter which determines how quickly the model learns from observed data. For this application, we focus onmore » elicitation of the learning parameter, and find that values in the range of 1 to 10 seem reasonable. The approach is compared with Kelly and Atwood's minimally informative Dirichlet prior for the alpha-factor model, which incorporated precise mean values for the alpha-factors, but which was otherwise quite diffuse. Next, we explore the use of a set of Gamma priors to model epistemic uncertainty in the marginal failure rate, expressed via a lower and upper expectation for this rate, again along with a learning parameter. As zero counts are generally less of an issue here, we find that the choice of this learning parameter is less crucial. Finally, we demonstrate how both epistemic uncertainty models can be combined to arrive at lower and upper expectations for all common-cause failure rates. Thereby, we effectively provide a full sensitivity analysis of common-cause failure rates, properly reflecting epistemic uncertainty of the analyst on all levels of the common-cause failure model.« less

Development of Long-Circulating pH-Sensitive Liposomes to Circumvent Gemcitabine Resistance in Pancreatic Cancer Cells.

PubMed

Xu, Hongtao; Paxton, James W; Wu, Zimei

2016-07-01

To develop pH-sensitive liposomes (PSL) containing a high content of gemcitabine; and to investigate whether drug loading (DL) would alter the in vitro and pharmacokinetic properties. PSL with a high DL were obtained using a modified small-volume incubation method. The DL effects on drug release rate and in vitro cytotoxicity of PSL were evaluated using MIA PaCa-2 pancreatic cancer cells and their pharmacokinetics investigated in rats. The highest DL of 4.5 ± 0.1% was achieved for gemcitabine in PSL with 145 ± 5 nm diameter. DL did not alter the in vitro release rate from PSL. The IC50 (48 h) of PSL (DL 0.5 and 4.5%) and non pH-sensitive liposomes (NPSL, DL 4.2%) were 1.1 ± 0.1, 0.7 ± 0.1 and 37.0 ± 7.5 μM, respectively. The PSL resulted in a 4.2-fold increase in its elimination half-life (6.2 h) compared to gemcitabine solution (1.4 h) in rats. No significant difference in pharmacokinetic parameters was observed between the two PSL (DL 0.5 and 4.5%). The PSL offered advantages over NPSL in restoring the sensitivity of pancreatic cancer cells to gemcitabine without requiring a high DL. DL in the PSL did not alter release rate, cytotoxicity or their long-circulating properties. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Kinetics modelling of color deterioration during thermal processing of tomato paste with the use of response surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganje, Mohammad; Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Farzaneh, Vahid; Malekjani, Narges

2018-06-01

To study the kinetics of color degradation, the tomato paste was designed to be processed at three different temperatures including 60, 70 and 80 °C for 25, 50, 75 and 100 min. a/b ratio, total color difference, saturation index and hue angle were calculated with the use of three main color parameters including L (lightness), a (redness-greenness) and b (yellowness-blueness) values. Kinetics of color degradation was developed by Arrhenius equation and the alterations were modelled with the use of response surface methodology (RSM). It was detected that all of the studied responses followed a first order reaction kinetics with an exception in TCD parameter (zeroth order). TCD and a/b respectively with the highest and lowest activation energy presented the highest sensitivity to the temperature alterations. The maximum and minimum rates of alterations were observed by TCD and b parameters, respectively. It was obviously determined that all of the studied parameters (responses) were affected by the selected independent parameters.

Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.

PubMed

Tian, Yuan; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Eom, Kirsten; Matchar, David B

2016-11-01

As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making. To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models. Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis). Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years. For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection. © The Author(s) 2016.

Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 5, Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of gas and brine migration for undisturbed performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-08-01

Before disposing of transuranic radioactive waste in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the United States Department of Energy (DOE) must evaluate compliance with applicable long-term regulations of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Sandia National Laboratories is conducting iterative performance assessments (PAs) of the WIPP for the DOE to provide interim guidance while preparing for a final compliance evaluation. This volume of the 1992 PA contains results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to migration of gas and brine from the undisturbed repository. Additional information about the 1992 PA is provided in other volumes. Volume 1 containsmore » an overview of WIPP PA and results of a preliminary comparison with 40 CFR 191, Subpart B. Volume 2 describes the technical basis for the performance assessment, including descriptions of the linked computational models used in the Monte Carlo analyses. Volume 3 contains the reference data base and values for input parameters used in consequence and probability modeling. Volume 4 contains uncertainty and sensitivity analyses with respect to the EPA`s Environmental Standards for the Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Radioactive Wastes (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). Finally, guidance derived from the entire 1992 PA is presented in Volume 6. Results of the 1992 uncertainty and sensitivity analyses indicate that, conditional on the modeling assumptions and the assigned parameter-value distributions, the most important parameters for which uncertainty has the potential to affect gas and brine migration from the undisturbed repository are: initial liquid saturation in the waste, anhydrite permeability, biodegradation-reaction stoichiometry, gas-generation rates for both corrosion and biodegradation under inundated conditions, and the permeability of the long-term shaft seal.« less

Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models.

PubMed

Radomyski, Artur; Giubilato, Elisa; Ciffroy, Philippe; Critto, Andrea; Brochot, Céline; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Brady, Oliver J.; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gething, Peter W.; Cohen, Justin M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis; Alex Perkins, T.; Reiner, Robert C.; Tusting, Lucy S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lindsay, Steven W.; Hay, Simon I.; Smith, David L.

2015-01-01

Background Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of ‘vectorial capacity’, a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. Methods In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. Results We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. Conclusions These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. PMID:25733562

Determination of protection zones for Dutch groundwater wells against virus contamination--uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Schijven, J F; Mülschlegel, J H C; Hassanizadeh, S M; Teunis, P F M; de Roda Husman, A M

2006-09-01

Protection zones of shallow unconfined aquifers in The Netherlands were calculated that allow protection against virus contamination to the level that the infection risk of 10(-4) per person per year is not exceeded with a 95% certainty. An uncertainty and a sensitivity analysis of the calculated protection zones were included. It was concluded that protection zones of 1 to 2 years travel time (206-418 m) are needed (6 to 12 times the currently applied travel time of 60 days). This will lead to enlargement of protection zones, encompassing 110 unconfined groundwater well systems that produce 3 x 10(8) m3 y(-1) of drinking water (38% of total Dutch production from groundwater). A smaller protection zone is possible if it can be shown that an aquifer has properties that lead to greater reduction of virus contamination, like more attachment. Deeper aquifers beneath aquitards of at least 2 years of vertical travel time are adequately protected because vertical flow in the aquitards is only 0.7 m per year. The most sensitive parameters are virus attachment and inactivation. The next most sensitive parameters are grain size of the sand, abstraction rate of groundwater, virus concentrations in raw sewage and consumption of unboiled drinking water. Research is recommended on additional protection by attachment and under unsaturated conditions.

Calibration of a complex activated sludge model for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Liwarska-Bizukojc, Ewa; Olejnik, Dorota; Biernacki, Rafal; Ledakowicz, Stanislaw

2011-08-01

In this study, the results of the calibration of the complex activated sludge model implemented in BioWin software for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant are presented. Within the calibration of the model, sensitivity analysis of its parameters and the fractions of carbonaceous substrate were performed. In the steady-state and dynamic calibrations, a successful agreement between the measured and simulated values of the output variables was achieved. Sensitivity analysis revealed that upon the calculations of normalized sensitivity coefficient (S(i,j)) 17 (steady-state) or 19 (dynamic conditions) kinetic and stoichiometric parameters are sensitive. Most of them are associated with growth and decay of ordinary heterotrophic organisms and phosphorus accumulating organisms. The rankings of ten most sensitive parameters established on the basis of the calculations of the mean square sensitivity measure (δ(msqr)j) indicate that irrespective of the fact, whether the steady-state or dynamic calibration was performed, there is an agreement in the sensitivity of parameters.

Studies of the Impact of Magnetic Field Uncertainties on Physics Parameters of the Mu2e Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradascio, Federica

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for a signature of charged lepton flavor violation, an effect prohibitively too small to be observed within the Standard Model of particle physics. Therefore, its observation is a signal of new physics. The signature that Mu2e will search for is the ratio of the rate of neutrinoless coherent conversion of muons into electrons in the field of a nucleus, relative to the muon capture rate by the nucleus. The conversion process is an example of charged lepton flavor violation. This experiment aims at a sensitivity of four orders of magnitude higher than previousmore » related experiments. The desired sensitivity implies highly demanding requirements of accuracy in the design and conduct of the experiment. It is therefore important to investigate the tolerance of the experiment to instrumental uncertainties and provide specifications that the design and construction must meet. This is the core of the work reported in this thesis. The design of the experiment is based on three superconducting solenoid magnets. The most important uncertainties in the magnetic field of the solenoids can arise from misalignments of the Transport Solenoid, which transfers the beam from the muon production area to the detector area and eliminates beam-originating backgrounds. In this thesis, the field uncertainties induced by possible misalignments and their impact on the physics parameters of the experiment are examined. The physics parameters include the muon and pion stopping rates and the scattering of beam electrons off the capture target, which determine the signal, intrinsic background and late-arriving background yields, respectively. Additionally, a possible test of the Transport Solenoid alignment with low momentum electrons is examined, as an alternative option to measure its field with conventional probes, which is technically difficult due to mechanical interference. Misalignments of the Transport Solenoid were simulated using standard magnetic field cal- culation tools. Particle transport was simulated using the Mu2e Offline software, which includes realistic models of particle interactions with materials in the full Mu2e geometry. The physics parameters were found tolerant within the precision requirements of the experiment for rigid-body type of misalignments, which are the most dangerous, up to a maximum coil displacement of nearly 10 mm. With the appropriate choice of low momentum electron detector, the proposed Transport Solenoid test is found to be sensitive to such misalignments.« less

An investigation of using an RQP based method to calculate parameter sensitivity derivatives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

1989-01-01

Estimation of the sensitivity of problem functions with respect to problem variables forms the basis for many of our modern day algorithms for engineering optimization. The most common application of problem sensitivities has been in the calculation of objective function and constraint partial derivatives for determining search directions and optimality conditions. A second form of sensitivity analysis, parameter sensitivity, has also become an important topic in recent years. By parameter sensitivity, researchers refer to the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and current design point due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. Methods for calculating these derivatives have been proposed by several authors (Armacost and Fiacco 1974, Sobieski et al 1981, Schmit and Chang 1984, and Vanderplaats and Yoshida 1985). Two drawbacks to estimating parameter sensitivities by current methods have been: (1) the need for second order information about the Lagrangian at the current point, and (2) the estimates assume no change in the active set of constraints. The first of these two problems is addressed here and a new algorithm is proposed that does not require explicit calculation of second order information.

[Application of Fourier amplitude sensitivity test in Chinese healthy volunteer population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus].

PubMed

Guan, Zheng; Zhang, Guan-min; Ma, Ping; Liu, Li-hong; Zhou, Tian-yan; Lu, Wei

2010-07-01

In this study, we evaluated the influence of different variance from each of the parameters on the output of tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model in Chinese healthy volunteers, using Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Besides, we estimated the index of sensitivity within whole course of blood sampling, designed different sampling times, and evaluated the quality of parameters' and the efficiency of prediction. It was observed that besides CL1/F, the index of sensitivity for all of the other four parameters (V1/F, V2/F, CL2/F and k(a)) in tacrolimus PopPK model showed relatively high level and changed fast with the time passing. With the increase of the variance of k(a), its indices of sensitivity increased obviously, associated with significant decrease in sensitivity index for the other parameters, and obvious change in peak time as well. According to the simulation of NONMEM and the comparison among different fitting results, we found that the sampling time points designed according to FAST surpassed the other time points. It suggests that FAST can access the sensitivities of model parameters effectively, and assist the design of clinical sampling times and the construction of PopPK model.

Relationships between the structure of natural organic matter and its reactivity towards molecular ozone and hydroxyl radicals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerhoff, P.; Aiken, G.; Amy, G.; Debroux, J.

1999-01-01

Oxidation reaction rate parameters for molecular ozone (O3) and hydroxyl (HO) radicals with a variety of hydrophobic organic acids (HOAs) isolated from different geographic locations were determined from batch ozonation studies. Rate parameter values, obtained under equivalent dissolved organic carbon concentrations in both the presence and absence of non-NOM HO radical scavengers, varied as a function of NOM structure. First-order rate constants for O3 consumption (k(O3)) averaged 8.8 x 10-3 s-1, ranging from 3.9 x 10-3 s-1 for a groundwater HOA to > 16 x 10-3 s-1 for river HOAs with large terrestrial carbon inputs. The average second-order rate constant (k(HO,DOC) between HO radicals and NOM was 3.6 x 108 l (mol C)-1 s-1; a mass of 12 g C per mole C was used in all calculations. Specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA) at 254 or 280 nm of the HOAs correlated well (r > 0.9) with O3 consumption rate parameters, implying that organic ??-electrons strongly and selectively influence oxidative reactivity. HO radical reactions with NOM were less selective, although correlation between k(HO,DOC) and SUVA existed. Other physical-chemical properties of NOM, such as aromatic and aliphatic carbon content from 13C-NMR spectroscopy, proved less sensitive for predicting oxidation reactivity than SUVA. The implication of this study is that the structural nature of NOM varies temporally and spatially in a water source, and both the nature and amount of NOM will influence oxidation rates.

Molecular order and T1-relaxation, cross-relaxation in nitroxide spin labels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Derek

2018-05-01

Interpretation of saturation-recovery EPR experiments on nitroxide spin labels whose angular rotation is restricted by the orienting potential of the environment (e.g., membranes) currently concentrates on the influence of rotational rates and not of molecular order. Here, I consider the dependence on molecular ordering of contributions to the rates of electron spin-lattice relaxation and cross relaxation from modulation of N-hyperfine and Zeeman anisotropies. These are determined by the averages and , where θ is the angle between the nitroxide z-axis and the static magnetic field, which in turn depends on the angles that these two directions make with the director of uniaxial ordering. For saturation-recovery EPR at 9 GHz, the recovery rate constant is predicted to decrease with increasing order for the magnetic field oriented parallel to the director, and to increase slightly for the perpendicular field orientation. The latter situation corresponds to the usual experimental protocol and is consistent with the dependence on chain-labelling position in lipid bilayer membranes. An altered dependence on order parameter is predicted for saturation-recovery EPR at high field (94 GHz) that is not entirely consistent with observation. Comparisons with experiment are complicated by contributions from slow-motional components, and an unexplained background recovery rate that most probably is independent of order parameter. In general, this analysis supports the interpretation that recovery rates are determined principally by rotational diffusion rates, but experiments at other spectral positions/field orientations could increase the sensitivity to order parameter.

Sensitivity of geological, geochemical and hydrologic parameters in complex reactive transport systems for in-situ uranium bioremediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Maher, K.; Caers, J.

2015-12-01

Groundwater contamination associated with remediated uranium mill tailings is a challenging environmental problem, particularly within the Colorado River Basin. To examine the effectiveness of in-situ bioremediation of U(VI), acetate injection has been proposed and tested at the Rifle pilot site. There have been several geologic modeling and simulated contaminant transport investigations, to evaluate the potential outcomes of the process and identify crucial factors for successful uranium reduction. Ultimately, findings from these studies would contribute to accurate predictions of the efficacy of uranium reduction. However, all these previous studies have considered limited model complexities, either because of the concern that data is too sparse to resolve such complex systems or because some parameters are assumed to be less important. Such simplified initial modeling, however, limits the predictive power of the model. Moreover, previous studies have not yet focused on spatial heterogeneity of various modeling components and its impact on the spatial distribution of the immobilized uranium (U(IV)). In this study, we study the impact of uncertainty on 21 parameters on model responses by means of recently developed distance-based global sensitivity analysis (DGSA), to study the main effects and interactions of parameters of various types. The 21 parameters include, for example, spatial variability of initial uranium concentration, mean hydraulic conductivity, and variogram structures of hydraulic conductivity. DGSA allows for studying multi-variate model responses based on spatial and non-spatial model parameters. When calculating the distances between model responses, in addition to the overall uranium reduction efficacy, we also considered the spatial profiles of the immobilized uranium concentration as target response. Results show that the mean hydraulic conductivity and the mineral reaction rate are the two most sensitive parameters with regard to the overall uranium reduction. But in terms of spatial distribution of immobilized uranium, initial conditions of uranium concentration and spatial uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity also become important. These analyses serve as the first step of further prediction practices of the complex uranium transport and reaction systems.

Effects of railway track design on the expected degradation: Parametric study on energy dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri, Mehran; Steenbergen, Michaël

2018-04-01

This paper studies the effect of railway track design parameters on the expected long-term degradation of track geometry. The study assumes a geometrically perfect and straight track along with spatial invariability, except for the presence of discrete sleepers. A frequency-domain two-layer model is used of a discretely supported rail coupled with a moving unsprung mass. The susceptibility of the track to degradation is objectively quantified by calculating the mechanical energy dissipated in the substructure under a moving train axle for variations of different track parameters. Results show that, apart from the operational train speed, the ballast/substructure stiffness is the most significant parameter influencing energy dissipation. Generally, the degradation increases with the train speed and with softer substructures. However, stiff subgrades appear more sensitive to particular train velocities, in a regime which is mostly relevant for conventional trains (100-200 km/h) and less for high-speed operation, where a stiff subgrade is always favorable and can reduce the sensitivity to degradation substantially, with roughly a factor up to 7. Also railpad stiffness, sleeper distance and rail cross-sectional properties are found to have considerable effect, with higher expected degradation rates for increasing railpad stiffness, increasing sleeper distance and decreasing rail profile bending stiffness. Unsprung vehicle mass and sleeper mass have no significant influence, however, only against the background of the assumption of an idealized (invariant and straight) track. Apart from dissipated mechanical energy, the suitability of the dynamic track stiffness is explored as an engineering parameter to assess the sensitivity to degradation. It is found that this quantity is inappropriate to assess the design of an idealized track.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of fixation options for intertrochanteric hip fractures.

PubMed

Swart, Eric; Makhni, Eric C; Macaulay, William; Rosenwasser, Melvin P; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-10-01

Intertrochanteric hip fractures are a major source of morbidity and financial burden, accounting for 7% of osteoporotic fractures and costing nearly $6 billion annually in the United States. Traditionally, "stable" fracture patterns have been treated with an extramedullary sliding hip screw whereas "unstable" patterns have been treated with the more expensive intramedullary nail. The purpose of this study was to identify parameters to guide cost-effective implant choices with use of decision-analysis techniques to model these common clinical scenarios. An expected-value decision-analysis model was constructed to estimate the total costs and health utility based on the choice of a sliding hip screw or an intramedullary nail for fixation of an intertrochanteric hip fracture. Values for critical parameters, such as fixation failure rate, were derived from the literature. Three scenarios were evaluated: (1) a clearly stable fracture (AO type 31-A1), (2) a clearly unstable fracture (A3), or (3) a fracture with questionable stability (A2). Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the validity of the model. The fixation failure rate and implant cost were the most important factors in determining implant choice. When the incremental cost for the intramedullary nail was set at the median value ($1200), intramedullary nailing had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $50,000/quality-adjusted life year when the incremental failure rate of sliding hip screws was 1.9%. When the incremental failure rate of sliding hip screws was >5.0%, intramedullary nails dominated with lower cost and better health outcomes. The sliding hip screw was always more cost-effective for A1 fractures, and the intramedullary nail always dominated for A3 fractures. As for A2 fractures, the sliding hip screw was cost-effective in 70% of the cases, although this was highly sensitive to the failure rate. Sliding hip screw fixation is likely more cost-effective for stable intertrochanteric fractures (A1) or those with questionable stability (A2), whereas intramedullary nail fixation is more cost-effective for reverse obliquity fractures (A3). These conclusions are highly sensitive to the fixation failure rate, which was the major influence on the model results. Copyright © 2014 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

A two-step sensitivity analysis for hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Fu, G.; Chiang, Y. M.; Xu, Y. P.

2016-12-01

Owing to model complexity and large number of parameters, calibration and sensitivity analysis are difficult processes for distributed hydrological models. In this study, a two-step sensitivity analysis approach is proposed for analyzing the hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China, using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). A rough sensitivity analysis is firstly conducted to obtain preliminary influential parameters via Analysis of Variance. The number of parameters was greatly reduced from eighteen-three to sixteen. Afterwards, the sixteen parameters are further analyzed based on a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, i.e., Sobol's sensitivity analysis method, to achieve robust sensitivity rankings and parameter contributions. Parallel-Computing is applied to reduce computational burden in variance-based sensitivity analysis. The results reveal that only a few number of model parameters are significantly sensitive, including rain LAI multiplier, lateral conductivity, porosity, field capacity, wilting point of clay loam, understory monthly LAI, understory minimum resistance and root zone depths of croplands. Finally several hydrological signatures are used for investigating the performance of DHSVM. Results show that high value of efficiency criteria didn't indicate excellent performance of hydrological signatures. For most samples from Sobol's sensitivity analysis, water yield was simulated very well. However, lowest and maximum annual daily runoffs were underestimated. Most of seven-day minimum runoffs were overestimated. Nevertheless, good performances of the three signatures above still exist in a number of samples. Analysis of peak flow shows that small and medium floods are simulated perfectly while slight underestimations happen to large floods. The work in this study helps to further multi-objective calibration of DHSVM model and indicates where to improve the reliability and credibility of model simulation.

Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Urban Surface Energy Balance Parameterization at a Tropical Suburban Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harshan, S.; Roth, M.; Velasco, E.

2014-12-01

Forecasting of the urban weather and climate is of great importance as our cities become more populated and considering the combined effects of global warming and local land use changes which make urban inhabitants more vulnerable to e.g. heat waves and flash floods. In meso/global scale models, urban parameterization schemes are used to represent the urban effects. However, these schemes require a large set of input parameters related to urban morphological and thermal properties. Obtaining all these parameters through direct measurements are usually not feasible. A number of studies have reported on parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis to adjust and determine the most influential parameters for land surface schemes in non-urban areas. Similar work for urban areas is scarce, in particular studies on urban parameterization schemes in tropical cities have so far not been reported. In order to address above issues, the town energy balance (TEB) urban parameterization scheme (part of the SURFEX land surface modeling system) was subjected to a sensitivity and optimization/parameter estimation experiment at a suburban site in, tropical Singapore. The sensitivity analysis was carried out as a screening test to identify the most sensitive or influential parameters. Thereafter, an optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed to calibrate the input parameter. The sensitivity experiment was based on the "improved Sobol's global variance decomposition method" . The analysis showed that parameters related to road, roof and soil moisture have significant influence on the performance of the model. The optimization/parameter estimation experiment was performed using the AMALGM (a multi-algorithm genetically adaptive multi-objective method) evolutionary algorithm. The experiment showed a remarkable improvement compared to the simulations using the default parameter set. The calibrated parameters from this optimization experiment can be used for further model validation studies to identify inherent deficiencies in model physics.

Optimization of PET instrumentation for brain activation studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dahlbom, M.; Cherry, S.R.; Hoffman, E.J.

By performing cerebral blood flow studies with positron emission tomography (PET), and comparing blood flow images of different states of activation, functional mapping of the brain is possible. The ability of current commercial instruments to perform such studies is investigated in this work, based on a comparison of noise equivalent count (NEC) rates. Differences in the NEC performance of the different scanners in conjunction with scanner design parameters, provide insights into the importance of block design (size, dead time, crystal thickness) and overall scanner design (sensitivity and scatter fraction) for optimizing data from activation studies. The newer scanners with removablemore » septa, operating with 3-D acquisition, have much higher sensitivity, but require new methodology for optimized operation. Only by administering multiple low doses (fractionation) of the flow tracer can the high sensitivity be utilized.« less

Transmission parameters estimated for Salmonella typhimurium in swine using susceptible-infectious-resistant models and a Bayesian approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Transmission models can aid understanding of disease dynamics and are useful in testing the efficiency of control measures. The aim of this study was to formulate an appropriate stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant/Carrier (SIR) model for Salmonella Typhimurium in pigs and thus estimate the transmission parameters between states. Results The transmission parameters were estimated using data from a longitudinal study of three Danish farrow-to-finish pig herds known to be infected. A Bayesian model framework was proposed, which comprised Binomial components for the transition from susceptible to infectious and from infectious to carrier; and a Poisson component for carrier to infectious. Cohort random effects were incorporated into these models to allow for unobserved cohort-specific variables as well as unobserved sources of transmission, thus enabling a more realistic estimation of the transmission parameters. In the case of the transition from susceptible to infectious, the cohort random effects were also time varying. The number of infectious pigs not detected by the parallel testing was treated as unknown, and the probability of non-detection was estimated using information about the sensitivity and specificity of the bacteriological and serological tests. The estimate of the transmission rate from susceptible to infectious was 0.33 [0.06, 1.52], from infectious to carrier was 0.18 [0.14, 0.23] and from carrier to infectious was 0.01 [0.0001, 0.04]. The estimate for the basic reproduction ration (R 0 ) was 1.91 [0.78, 5.24]. The probability of non-detection was estimated to be 0.18 [0.12, 0.25]. Conclusions The proposed framework for stochastic SIR models was successfully implemented to estimate transmission rate parameters for Salmonella Typhimurium in swine field data. R 0 was 1.91, implying that there was dissemination of the infection within pigs of the same cohort. There was significant temporal-cohort variability, especially at the susceptible to infectious stage. The model adequately fitted the data, allowing for both observed and unobserved sources of uncertainty (cohort effects, diagnostic test sensitivity), so leading to more reliable estimates of transmission parameters. PMID:24774444

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosland, R.; Strand, Ø.; Alunno-Bruscia, M.; Bacher, C.; Strohmeier, T.

2009-08-01

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

LATERAL CONTROL IN A DRIVING SIMULATOR: CORRELATIONS WITH NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS AND ON-ROAD SAFETY ERRORS

PubMed Central

Johnson, Amy; Dawson, Jeffrey; Rizzo, Matthew

2012-01-01

Summary Driving simulators provide precise information on vehicular position at high capture rates. To analyze such data, we have previously proposed a time series model that reduces lateral position data into several parameters for measuring lateral control, and have shown that these parameters can detect differences between neurologically impaired and healthy drivers (Dawson et al, 2010a). In this paper, we focus on the “re-centering” parameter of this model, and test whether the parameter estimates are associated with off-road neuropsychological tests and/or with on-road safety errors. We assessed such correlations in 127 neurologically healthy drivers, ages 40 to 89. We found that our re-centering parameter had significant correlations with five neuropsychological tests: Judgment of Line Orientation (r = 0.38), Block Design (r = 0.27), Contrast Sensitivity (r = 0.31), Near Visual Acuity (r = -0.26), and Grooved Pegboard (r = -0.25). We also found that our re-centering parameter was associated with on-road safety errors at stop signs (r = -0.34) and on-road safety errors during turns (r = -0.22). These results suggest that our re-centering parameter may be a useful tool for measuring and monitoring ability to maintain vehicular lateral control. As GPS-based technology continues to improve in precision and reliability to measure vehicular positioning, our time-series model may potentially be applied as an automated index of driver performance in real world settings that is sensitive to cognitive decline. This work was supported by NIH/NIA awards AG17177, AG15071, and NS044930, and by a scholarship from Nissan Motor Company. PMID:24273756

Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2016-01-01

A parameter regionalization scheme to transfer parameter values from gaged to ungaged areas for a monthly water balance model (MWBM) was developed and tested for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, a global-sensitivity algorithm, was implemented on a MWBM to generate parameter sensitivities on a set of 109 951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. The HRUs were grouped into 110 calibration regions based on similar parameter sensitivities. Subsequently, measured runoff from 1575 streamgages within the calibration regions were used to calibrate the MWBM parameters to produce parameter sets for each calibration region. Measured and simulated runoff at the 1575 streamgages showed good correspondence for the majority of the CONUS, with a median computed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.76 over all streamgages. These methods maximize the use of available runoff information, resulting in a calibrated CONUS-wide application of the MWBM suitable for providing estimates of water availability at the HRU resolution for both gaged and ungaged areas of the CONUS.