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Sample records for rates predicts higher

  1. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  2. Lower-Order Pain-Related Constructs are More Predictive of Cold Pressor Pain Ratings than Higher-Order Personality Traits

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jennifer E; Watson, David; Frey Law, Laura A

    2010-01-01

    Pain is a debilitating condition affecting millions each year, yet what predisposes certain individuals to be more sensitive to pain remains relatively unknown. Several psychological factors have been associated with pain perception, but the structural relations between multiple higher- and lower-order constructs and pain are not well understood. Thus, we aimed to examine the associations between pain perception using the cold pressor task (CPT), higher-order personality traits (neuroticism, negative affectivity, trait anxiety, extraversion, positive affectivity, psychoticism), and lower-order pain-related psychological constructs (pain catastrophizing [pre- and post], fear of pain, anxiety sensitivity, somatosensory amplification, hypochondriasis) in 66 pain-free adults. Factor analysis revealed three latent psychological variables: pain- or body-sensitivity, negative affect/neuroticism, and positive affect/extraversion. Similarly, pain responses factored into three domains: intensity, quality, and tolerance. Regression and correlation analyses demonstrated 1) all the lower-order pain constructs (fear, catastrophizing, and hypochondriasis) are related through a single underlying latent factor, that is partially related to the higher-order negative-valence personality traits; 2) pain- or body-sensitivity was more strongly predictive of pain quality than higher-order traits; and 3) the form of pain assessment is important – only qualitative pain ratings were significantly predicted by the psychological factors. Perspective: Consistent with the biopsychosocial model, these results suggest multiple pain-related psychological measures likely assess a common underlying factor, which is more predictive of qualitative than intensity pain ratings. This information may be useful for the development and advancement of pain assessments and treatments while considering the multidimensional nature of pain. PMID:20356801

  3. Geometrical Sparing Factors for the Rectum and Bladder in the Prediction of Grade 2 and Higher Complications After High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy for Cervical Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S.-W.; Liang, J.-A.; Hung, Y.-C.; Yeh, L.-S.; Chang, W.-C.; Yang, S.-N.; Lin, F.-J.

    2009-12-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to assess the predictive values of geometrical sparing factors for the rectum and bladder in high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDRICB) for Grade 2 and higher late sequelae in patients with cervical cancer. Methods: A total of 392 patients were enrolled in this study. They were treated with external beam radiotherapy to the pelvis, after which HDRICB was performed using Ir-192 remote after-loading at 1-week intervals for three or four sessions. The geometrical sparing factor (GSF) was defined as the average of the ratios between the reference doses and the Point A dose. Results: A total of 46 patients (11.7%) had Grade 2 or higher late rectal complications (36 Grade 2, 9 Grade 3, and 1 Grade 4). In all, 32 patients (8.2%) had Grade 2 or higher late bladder complications (14 Grade 2, 16 Grade 3, and 2 Grade 4). Multivariate analysis demonstrated a high risk of rectal sequelae in patients who developed bladder complications (p = 0.0004, hazard ratio 3.54) and had a rectal GSF greater than 0.7 (p = 0.01, hazard ratio 1.99). The high risk factors for bladder complications were development of rectal complications (p = 0.0004, hazard ratio 3.74), concurrent chemotherapy (p = 0.0001, relative risk 3.94), and a bladder GSF greater than 0.9 (p = 0.01, hazard ratio, 2.53). Conclusion: This study demonstrates the predictive value of GSFs in HDRICB for cervical cancer. Patients with rectal GSFs greater than 0.7 or bladder GSFs greater than 0.9 are at risk for Grade 2 and higher late sequelae.

  4. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    PubMed Central

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  5. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  6. Predicting laser coating removal rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Katherine X.; Garmire, Elsa M.; Phipps, Claude R.

    1998-09-01

    Our measurements of laser coating removal rate for 14- micrometer-thick black organic paint coatings on a refractory substrate showed the rather astonishing result that total exposure time (Delta) t required to ablate the coating (for these particular thin organic coatings, in air) is described by (Delta) t equals C X I-3/2 sec where x is the coating thickness, I the incident pulse intensity (W/cm2) and the constant C equals 1.4 X 107 W3/2-s/cm4. This was true for wavelength 350 nm less than (lambda) less than 10.6 micrometer and incident intensity 81 W/cm2 less than I less than 424 MW/cm2, covering a 7-order-of- magnitude. Such a simple result is phenomenal because of the range of different physical processes known to be involved (simple boiling, thermal conduction and differential thermal expansion for the long pulses, but the combined effects of shock spallation, large excursions within the solid equation of state, and acceleration, compression, shocking, thermal conduction, radiation, phase explosion and even some ionization for the shortest pulses). If extensible to other coatings and substrates, it is also very valuable for the design of expensive laser coating removal facilities, which are now receiving strong interest for very large-scale decontamination and aircraft repainting. Our first-order parametric model fits the experimental results to within better than a factor-of-3 in laser intensity throughout the above range.

  7. Higher Energy Expenditure in Humans Predicts Natural Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Hanson, Robert L.; Sievers, Maurice L.; Bennett, Peter H.; Nelson, Robert G.; Krakoff, Jonathan

    2011-01-01

    Context: Higher metabolic rates increase free radical formation, which may accelerate aging and lead to early mortality. Objective: Our objective was to determine whether higher metabolic rates measured by two different methods predict early natural mortality in humans. Design: Nondiabetic healthy Pima Indian volunteers (n = 652) were admitted to an inpatient unit for approximately 7 d as part of a longitudinal study of obesity and diabetes risk factors. Vital status of study participants was determined through December 31, 2006. Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure (24EE) was measured in 508 individuals, resting metabolic rate (RMR) was measured in 384 individuals, and 240 underwent both measurements on separate days. Data for 24EE were collected in a respiratory chamber between 1985 and 2006 with a mean (sd) follow-up time of 11.1 (6.5) yr and for RMR using an open-circuit respiratory hood system between 1982 and 2006 with a mean follow-up time of 15.4 (6.3) yr. Cox regression models were used to test the effect of EE on natural mortality, controlled for age, sex, and body weight. Results: In both groups, 27 natural deaths occurred during the study period. For each 100-kcal/24 h increase in EE, the risk of natural mortality increased by 1.29 (95% confidence interval = 1.00–1.66; P < 0.05) in the 24EE group and by 1.25 (95% confidence interval = 1.01–1.55; P < 0.05) in the RMR group, after adjustment for age, sex, and body weight in proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Higher metabolic rates as reflected by 24EE or RMR predict early natural mortality, indicating that higher energy turnover may accelerate aging in humans. PMID:21450984

  8. Higher rates of sex evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Becks, Lutz; Agrawal, Aneil F

    2010-11-01

    The evolution and maintenance of sexual reproduction has puzzled biologists for decades. Although this field is rich in hypotheses, experimental evidence is scarce. Some important experiments have demonstrated differences in evolutionary rates between sexual and asexual populations; other experiments have documented evolutionary changes in phenomena related to genetic mixing, such as recombination and selfing. However, direct experiments of the evolution of sex within populations are extremely rare (but see ref. 12). Here we use the rotifer, Brachionus calyciflorus, which is capable of both sexual and asexual reproduction, to test recent theory predicting that there is more opportunity for sex to evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments. Replicated experimental populations of rotifers were maintained in homogeneous environments, composed of either high- or low-quality food habitats, or in heterogeneous environments that consisted of a mix of the two habitats. For populations maintained in either type of homogeneous environment, the rate of sex evolves rapidly towards zero. In contrast, higher rates of sex evolve in populations experiencing spatially heterogeneous environments. The data indicate that the higher level of sex observed under heterogeneity is not due to sex being less costly or selection against sex being less efficient; rather sex is sufficiently advantageous in heterogeneous environments to overwhelm its inherent costs. Counter to some alternative theories for the evolution of sex, there is no evidence that genetic drift plays any part in the evolution of sex in these populations.

  9. Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

    2007-01-01

    Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

  10. Female Patients Require a Higher Propofol Infusion Rate for Sedation.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Shigeru; Tomoyasu, Yumiko; Higuchi, Hitoshi; Honda, Yuka; Ishii-Maruhama, Minako; Miyawaki, Takuya

    2016-01-01

    Sedation may minimize physiologic and behavioral stress responses. In our facility, the infusion rate of propofol is adjusted according to the bispectral index (BIS) in all cases of implant-related surgery; multivariate analysis of retrospective data enabled us to extract independent factors that affect the dose of propofol in sedation that are considered useful indicators for achieving adequate sedation. The study population comprised all patients undergoing implant-related surgery under intravenous sedation in Okayama University Hospital from April 2009 to March 2013. The infusion rate of propofol was adjusted to maintain the BIS value at 70-80. The outcome was the average infusion rate of propofol, and potential predictor variables were age, sex, body weight, treatment time, and amount of midazolam. Independent variables that affected the average infusion rate of propofol were extracted with multiple regression analysis. One hundred twenty-five subjects were enrolled. In the multiple regression analysis, female sex was shown to be significantly associated with a higher average infusion rate of propofol. Females may require a higher infusion rate of propofol than males to achieve adequate sedation while undergoing implant-related surgery. PMID:27269663

  11. Female Patients Require a Higher Propofol Infusion Rate for Sedation.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Shigeru; Tomoyasu, Yumiko; Higuchi, Hitoshi; Honda, Yuka; Ishii-Maruhama, Minako; Miyawaki, Takuya

    2016-01-01

    Sedation may minimize physiologic and behavioral stress responses. In our facility, the infusion rate of propofol is adjusted according to the bispectral index (BIS) in all cases of implant-related surgery; multivariate analysis of retrospective data enabled us to extract independent factors that affect the dose of propofol in sedation that are considered useful indicators for achieving adequate sedation. The study population comprised all patients undergoing implant-related surgery under intravenous sedation in Okayama University Hospital from April 2009 to March 2013. The infusion rate of propofol was adjusted to maintain the BIS value at 70-80. The outcome was the average infusion rate of propofol, and potential predictor variables were age, sex, body weight, treatment time, and amount of midazolam. Independent variables that affected the average infusion rate of propofol were extracted with multiple regression analysis. One hundred twenty-five subjects were enrolled. In the multiple regression analysis, female sex was shown to be significantly associated with a higher average infusion rate of propofol. Females may require a higher infusion rate of propofol than males to achieve adequate sedation while undergoing implant-related surgery.

  12. Predicting the migration rates of subaqueous dunes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrig, David; Smith, J. Dungan

    1996-10-01

    In this paper we develop a simple, physically based method for predicting what fraction of sediment moving over the crests of dunes will bypass their lee faces. The bypass fraction is found by calculating a characteristic excursion length for every grain size making up a particular train of dunes. All particles with excursion lengths greater than the downstream span of the lee face of the average dune are assumed not to contribute to dune propagation. Bypass fractions based on distributions of excursion lengths account for the discrepancies between total sediment discharge and dune migration rate measured by Stein [1965] and Guy et al. [1966] in laboratory flumes, as well as by us in the North Loup River of Nebraska. Calculations and these data agree over sediment-transporting conditions associated with the entire stability field for dunes composed of medium sand. The two laboratory studies show that commonly 30-60% of all sand moving over fully developed dunes is not deposited on slip faces. Measurements from the North Loup River reveal that of all sediment moving over the dune crests there, roughly 45% is not being captured on lee faces even though 99% of sediment is transported within 2 cm of the bed. The method developed herein successfully estimates measured values for the bypass fraction from 0 to 80%. Our analysis indicates that the division between grains that are deposited versus those that are bypassing falls within the range of sand sizes making up the suspended load at dune crests.

  13. Recombination rate predicts inversion size in Diptera.

    PubMed

    Cáceres, M; Barbadilla, A; Ruiz, A

    1999-09-01

    Most species of the Drosophila genus and other Diptera are polymorphic for paracentric inversions. A common observation is that successful inversions are of intermediate size. We test here the hypothesis that the selected property is the recombination length of inversions, not their physical length. If so, physical length of successful inversions should be negatively correlated with recombination rate across species. This prediction was tested by a comprehensive statistical analysis of inversion size and recombination map length in 12 Diptera species for which appropriate data are available. We found that (1) there is a wide variation in recombination map length among species; (2) physical length of successful inversions varies greatly among species and is inversely correlated with the species recombination map length; and (3) neither the among-species variation in inversion length nor the correlation are observed in unsuccessful inversions. The clear differences between successful and unsuccessful inversions point to natural selection as the most likely explanation for our results. Presumably the selective advantage of an inversion increases with its length, but so does its detrimental effect on fertility due to double crossovers. Our analysis provides the strongest and most extensive evidence in favor of the notion that the adaptive value of inversions stems from their effect on recombination.

  14. Recombination rate predicts inversion size in Diptera.

    PubMed Central

    Cáceres, M; Barbadilla, A; Ruiz, A

    1999-01-01

    Most species of the Drosophila genus and other Diptera are polymorphic for paracentric inversions. A common observation is that successful inversions are of intermediate size. We test here the hypothesis that the selected property is the recombination length of inversions, not their physical length. If so, physical length of successful inversions should be negatively correlated with recombination rate across species. This prediction was tested by a comprehensive statistical analysis of inversion size and recombination map length in 12 Diptera species for which appropriate data are available. We found that (1) there is a wide variation in recombination map length among species; (2) physical length of successful inversions varies greatly among species and is inversely correlated with the species recombination map length; and (3) neither the among-species variation in inversion length nor the correlation are observed in unsuccessful inversions. The clear differences between successful and unsuccessful inversions point to natural selection as the most likely explanation for our results. Presumably the selective advantage of an inversion increases with its length, but so does its detrimental effect on fertility due to double crossovers. Our analysis provides the strongest and most extensive evidence in favor of the notion that the adaptive value of inversions stems from their effect on recombination. PMID:10471710

  15. Can arsenic occurrence rates in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 µg L−1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 µg L−1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology. PMID:22260208

  16. Can arsenic occurrence rate in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 μg L–1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 μg L–1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology.

  17. Can arsenic occurrence rates in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    PubMed

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G; Culbertson, Charles W; Zheng, Yan

    2012-02-21

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 μg L(-1) of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 μg L(-1)) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology.

  18. Frequency rates and correlates of contrapower harassment in higher education.

    PubMed

    DeSouza, Eros R

    2011-01-01

    The current study investigated incivility, sexual harassment, and racial-ethnic harassment simultaneously when the targets were faculty members and the perpetrators were students (i.e., academic contrapower harassment; ACH). The sample constituted 257 faculty members (90% were White and 53% were women) from a medium-sized state university in the Midwestern United States. They completed an anonymous survey, including an openended question about a critical ACH incident. The findings revealed that 72% of the total sample had experienced some type of mistreatment from students during the past 2 years. The author hypothesized gender differences in frequency rates for overall ACH, incivility, and sexual harassment; however, there were none. Hence, this hypothesis was not supported. The author also hypothesized that incivility would predict sexual and ethnic harassment. This hypothesis was generally supported. Furthermore, he hypothesized that demographic, work-related, and tolerance for faculty-student romance would predict ACH and its subscales. The findings generally supported this hypothesis, with somewhat different predictors by gender. He also hypothesized that harassed faculty, especially women, would experience worse job-related outcomes than never harassed faculty. Neither gender nor the interaction was significant, but the main effect for harassment was, with harassed faculty members experiencing worse job-related outcomes than nonharassed faculty members. Thus this hypothesis was partially supported. Practical implications are discussed. PMID:20448231

  19. Model-based Heart rate prediction during Lokomat walking.

    PubMed

    Koenig, Alexander C; Somaini, Luca; Pulfer, Michael; Holenstein, Thomas; Omlin, Ximena; Wieser, Martin; Riener, Robert

    2009-01-01

    We implemented a model for prediction of heart rate during Lokomat walking. Using this model, we can predict potential overstressing of the patient and adapt the physical load accordingly. Current models for treadmill based heart rate control neglect the fact that the interaction torques between Lokomat and human can have a significant effect on heart rate. Tests with five healthy subjects lead to a model of sixth order with walking speed and power expenditure as inputs and heart rate prediction as output. Recordings with five different subjects were used for model validation. Future work includes model identification and predictive heart rate control with spinal cord injured and stroke patients. PMID:19963765

  20. Reduction Rates for Higher Americium Oxidation States in Nitric Acid

    SciTech Connect

    Grimes, Travis Shane; Mincher, Bruce Jay; Schmitt, Nicholas C

    2015-09-30

    The stability of hexavalent americium was measured using multiple americium concentrations and nitric acid concentrations after contact with the strong oxidant sodium bismuthate. Contrary to our hypotheses Am(VI) was not reduced faster at higher americium concentrations, and the reduction was only zero-order at short time scales. Attempts to model the reduction kinetics using zero order kinetic models showed Am(VI) reduction in nitric acid is more complex than the autoreduction processes reported by others in perchloric acid. The classical zero-order reduction of Am(VI) was found here only for short times on the order of a few hours. We did show that the rate of Am(V) production was less than the rate of Am(VI) reduction, indicating that some Am(VI) undergoes two electron-reduction to Am(IV). We also monitored the Am(VI) reduction in contact with the organic diluent dodecane. A direct comparison of these results with those in the absence of the organic diluent showed the reduction rates for Am(VI) were not statistically different for both systems. Additional americium oxidations conducted in the presence of Ce(IV)/Ce(III) ions showed that Am(VI) is reduced without the typical growth of Am(V) observed in the systems sans Ce ion. This was an interesting result which suggests a potential new reduction/oxidation pathway for Am in the presence of Ce; however, these results were very preliminary, and will require additional experiments to understand the mechanism by which this occurs. Overall, these studies have shown that hexavalent americium is fundamentally stable enough in nitric acid to run a separations process. However, the complicated nature of the reduction pathways based on the system components is far from being rigorously understood.

  1. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

    PubMed

    Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required. PMID:25487154

  2. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burr, Devon M.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Marshall, John R.; Smith, James K.; White, Bruce R.; Emery, Joshua P.

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  3. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; et al

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  4. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  5. Theophylline: constant-rate infusion predictions.

    PubMed

    Mesquita, C A; Sahebjami, H; Imhoff, T; Thomas, J P; Myre, S A

    1984-01-01

    This study was undertaken to evaluate a method of prospectively estimating appropriate aminophylline infusion rates in acutely ill, hospitalized patients with bronchospasm. Steady-state serum theophylline concentrations (Css), clearances (Cl), and half-lives (t1/2) were estimated by the Chiou method using serum concetrantions obtained 1 and 6 h after the start of a constant-rate intravenous aminophylline infusion in 10 male patients averaging 57 years of age. Using an enzyme-multiplied immunoassay (EMIT) system for theophylline analysis, pharmacokinetic estimations were excellent for Css (r = 0.9103, p less than 0.01) and Cl (r = 0.9750, p less than 0.01). The mean estimation errors were 9.4% (range 0.8-21.5) for Css and 12.3% (range 1.3-28.0) for Cl. There was no correlation between patient age and Cl. This method is useful for rapidly individualizing aminophylline therapy in patients with acute bronchospasm. PMID:6740734

  6. Predicting interannual variability in evapotranspiration rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-11-01

    The amount of evapotranspiration (ET), the sum of all the water that evaporates from the surface or is drawn up through plants and vented as vapor, is a strong controlling factor for the amount of water left over for other purposes, such as groundwater recharge or surface runoff. Understanding how ET rates vary from year to year is challenging, because the change is inherently controlled by small-scale variations in vegetation type and density, soil properties, and meteorological conditions. Yet there has been some success understanding variations in ET at the watershed scale. Analyzing daily measurements of evapotranspiration for 547 watersheds across the United States from 1983 to 2006, Cheng et al. identified a strong linear relationship between two slightly different ratios: the ratio between the watershed's potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation and that between observed ET and precipitation. This is surprising because many previous studies suggested a nonlinear relationship between the two ratios by following the Budyko framework, a dominant approach in water cycle modeling that relates ET rates to the amount of energy and water in the system.

  7. Neocortex size predicts deception rate in primates.

    PubMed Central

    Byrne, Richard W.; Corp, Nadia

    2004-01-01

    Human brain organization is built upon a more ancient adaptation, the large brain of simian primates: on average, monkeys and apes have brains twice as large as expected for mammals of their size, principally as a result of neocortical enlargement. Testing the adaptive benefit of this evolutionary specialization depends on finding an association between brain size and function in primates. However, most cognitive capacities have been assessed in only a restricted range of species under laboratory conditions. Deception of conspecifics in social circumstances is an exception, because a corpus of field data is available that encompasses all major lines of the primate radiation. We show that the use of deception within the primates is well predicted by the neocortical volume, when observer effort is controlled for; by contrast, neither the size of the rest of the brain nor the group size exert significant effects. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that neocortical expansion has been driven by social challenges among the primates. Complex social manipulations such as deception are thought to be based upon rapid learning and extensive social knowledge; thus, learning in social contexts may be constrained by neocortical size. PMID:15306289

  8. Predictions of cell damage rates for Lifesat missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Golightly, Michael J.; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy; Nealy, John E.; Katz, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The track model of Katz is used to make predictions of cell damage rates for possible Lifesat experiments. Contributions from trapped protons and electrons and galactic cosmic rays are considered for several orbits. Damage rates for survival and transformation of C3HT10-1/2 cells are predicted for various spacecraft shields.

  9. Visible light communication using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate.

    PubMed

    Chow, Chi-Wai; Chen, Chung-Yen; Chen, Shih-Hao

    2015-10-01

    Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors are widely used in mobile-phone and cameras. Hence, it is attractive if these image sensors can be used as the visible light communication (VLC) receivers (Rxs). However, using these CMOS image sensors are challenging. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a VLC link using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate of the CMOS image sensor. We first discuss and analyze the features of using CMOS image sensor as VLC Rx, including the rolling shutter effect, overlapping of exposure time of each row of pixels, frame-to-frame processing time gap, and also the image sensor "blooming" effect. Then, we describe the procedure of synchronization and demodulation. This includes file format conversion, grayscale conversion, column matrix selection avoiding blooming, polynomial fitting for threshold location. Finally, the evaluation of bit-error-rate (BER) is performed satisfying the forward error correction (FEC) limit.

  10. Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior

    PubMed Central

    Chabris, Christopher F.; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L.; Schuldt, Jonathon P.; Taubinsky, Dmitry

    2009-01-01

    We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions. PMID:19412359

  11. Predicting the extent of metabolism using in vitro permeability rate measurements and in silico permeability rate predictions

    PubMed Central

    Hosey, Chelsea M; Benet, Leslie Z

    2015-01-01

    The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) can be utilized to predict drug disposition, including interactions with other drugs and transporter or metabolizing enzyme effects based on the extent of metabolism and solubility of a drug. However, defining the extent of metabolism relies upon clinical data. Drugs exhibiting high passive intestinal permeability rates are extensively metabolized. Therefore, we aimed to determine if in vitro measures of permeability rate or in silico permeability rate predictions could predict the extent of metabolism, to determine a reference compound representing the permeability rate above which compounds would be expected to be extensively metabolized, and to predict the major route of elimination of compounds in a two-tier approach utilizing permeability rate and a previously published model predicting the major route of elimination of parent drug. Twenty-two in vitro permeability rate measurement data sets in Caco-2 and MDCK cell lines and PAMPA were collected from the literature, while in silico permeability rate predictions were calculated using ADMET Predictor™ or VolSurf+. The potential for permeability rate to differentiate between extensively and poorly metabolized compounds was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curves. Compounds that yielded the highest sensitivity-specificity average were selected as permeability rate reference standards. The major route of elimination of poorly permeable drugs was predicted by our previously published model and the accuracies and predictive values were calculated. The areas under the receiver operating curves were >0.90 for in vitro measures of permeability rate and >0.80 for the VolSurf+ model of permeability rate, indicating they were able to predict the extent of metabolism of compounds. Labetalol and zidovudine predicted greater than 80% of extensively metabolized drugs correctly and greater than 80% of poorly metabolized drugs correctly in Caco

  12. Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

    PubMed Central

    Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

  13. Mass gathering medicine: event factors predicting patient presentation rates.

    PubMed

    Locoh-Donou, Samuel; Yan, Guofen; Berry, Thomas; O'Connor, Robert; Sochor, Mark; Charlton, Nathan; Brady, William

    2016-08-01

    This study was conducted to identify the event characteristics of mass gatherings that predict patient presentation rates held in a southeastern US university community. We conducted a retrospective review of all event-based emergency medical services (EMS) records from mass gathering patient presentations over an approximate 23 month period, from October 24, 2009 to August 27, 2011. All patrons seen by EMS were included. Event characteristics included: crowd size, venue percentage filled seating, venue location (inside/outside), venue boundaries (bounded/unbounded), presence of free water (i.e., without cost), presence of alcohol, average heat index, presence of climate control (i.e., air conditioning), and event category (football, concerts, public exhibitions, non-football athletic events). We identified 79 mass gathering events, for a total of 670 patient presentations. The cumulative patron attendance was 917,307 persons. The patient presentation rate (PPR) for each event was calculated as the number of patient presentations per 10,000 patrons in attendance. Overdispersed Poisson regression was used to relate this rate to the event characteristics while controlling for crowd size. In univariate analyses, increased rates of patient presentations were strongly associated with outside venues [rate ratio (RR) = 3.002, p < 0.001], unbounded venues (RR = 2.839, p = 0.001), absence of free water (RR = 1.708, p = 0.036), absence of climate control (RR = 3.028, p < 0.001), and a higher heat index (RR = 1.211 per 10-unit heat index increase, p = 0.003). The presence of alcohol was not significantly associated with the PPR. Football events had the highest PPR, followed sequentially by public exhibitions, concerts, and non-football athletic events. In multivariate models, the strong predictors from the univariate analyses retained their predictive significance for the PPR, together with heat index and percent seating. In the setting of mass event

  14. Do Geographic Regions with Higher Suicide Rates Also Have Higher Rates of Nonfatal Intentional Self-Harm?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Claassen, Cynthia A.; Carmody, Thomas; Bossarte, Robert; Trivedi, Madhukar H.; Elliott, Stephen; Currier, Glenn W.

    2008-01-01

    Fatal and nonfatal intentional self-harm events in eight U.S. states were compared using emergency department, hospital, and vital statistics data. Nonfatal event rates increased by an estimated 24.20% over 6 years. Case fatality ratios varied widely, but two northeastern states' total event rates (fatal plus nonfatal) were very high (New…

  15. Emotional Competence and Drop-Out Rates in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingston, Emma

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the emotional competence of first year undergraduates enrolled on a high or low drop-out rate (HDR and LDR, respectively) course, at a newly established university within the UK. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methods approach using both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was…

  16. Method for predicting photocatalytic oxidation rates of organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Sattler, Melanie L; Liljestrand, Howard M

    2003-01-01

    In designing a photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) system for a given air pollution source, destruction rates for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are required. The objective of this research was to develop a systematic method of predicting PCO rate constants by correlating rate constants with physical-chemical characteristics of compounds. Accordingly, reaction rate constants were determined for destruction of volatile organics over a titanium dioxide (TiO2) catalyst in a continuous mixed-batch reactor. It was found that PCO rate constants for alkanes and alkenes vary linearly with gas-phase ionization potential (IP) and with gas-phase hydroxyl radical reaction rate constant. The correlations allow rates of destruction of compounds not tested in this research to be predicted based on physical-chemical characteristics. PMID:12568248

  17. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors.

    PubMed

    Niessen, A Susan M; Meijer, Rob R; Tendeiro, Jorge N

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance.

  18. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  19. Considering rating curve uncertainty in water level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Scheidegger, A.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2013-11-01

    Streamflow cannot be measured directly and is typically derived with a rating curve model. Unfortunately, this causes uncertainties in the streamflow data and also influences the calibration of rainfall-runoff models if they are conditioned on such data. However, it is currently unknown to what extent these uncertainties propagate to rainfall-runoff predictions. This study therefore presents a quantitative approach to rigorously consider the impact of the rating curve on the prediction uncertainty of water levels. The uncertainty analysis is performed within a formal Bayesian framework and the contributions of rating curve versus rainfall-runoff model parameters to the total predictive uncertainty are addressed. A major benefit of the approach is its independence from the applied rainfall-runoff model and rating curve. In addition, it only requires already existing hydrometric data. The approach was successfully demonstrated on a small catchment in Poland, where a dedicated monitoring campaign was performed in 2011. The results of our case study indicate that the uncertainty in calibration data derived by the rating curve method may be of the same relevance as rainfall-runoff model parameters themselves. A conceptual limitation of the approach presented is that it is limited to water level predictions. Nevertheless, regarding flood level predictions, the Bayesian framework seems very promising because it (i) enables the modeler to incorporate informal knowledge from easily accessible information and (ii) better assesses the individual error contributions. Especially the latter is important to improve the predictive capability of hydrological models.

  20. Considering rating curve uncertainty in water level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Scheidegger, A.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2013-03-01

    Streamflow cannot be measured directly and is typically derived with a rating curve model. Unfortunately, this causes uncertainties in the streamflow data and also influences the calibration of rainfall-runoff models if they are conditioned on such data. However, it is currently unknown to what extent these uncertainties propagate to rainfall-runoff predictions. This study therefore presents a quantitative approach to rigorously consider the impact of the rating curve on the prediction uncertainty of water levels. The uncertainty analysis is performed within a formal Bayesian framework and the contributions of rating curve versus rainfall-runoff model parameters to the total predictive uncertainty are addressed. A major benefit of the approach is its independence from the applied rainfall-runoff model and rating curve. In addition, it only requires already existing hydrometric data. The approach was successfully tested on a small urbanized basin in Poland, where a dedicated monitoring campaign was performed in 2011. The results of our case study indicate that the uncertainty in calibration data derived by the rating curve method may be of the same relevance as rainfall-runoff model parameters themselves. A conceptual limitation of the approach presented is that it is limited to water level predictions. Nevertheless, regarding flood level predictions, the Bayesian framework seems very promising because it (i) enables the modeler to incorporate informal knowledge from easily accessible information and (ii) better assesses the individual error contributions. Especially the latter is important to improve the predictive capability of hydrological models.

  1. Using Classification Trees to Predict Alumni Giving for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weerts, David J.; Ronca, Justin M.

    2009-01-01

    As the relative level of public support for higher education declines, colleges and universities aim to maximize alumni-giving to keep their programs competitive. Anchored in a utility maximization framework, this study employs the classification and regression tree methodology to examine characteristics of alumni donors and non-donors at a…

  2. Asteroid orbits and ephemerides: Towards higher-fidelity predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S.; Milani, A.; Chodas, P.

    2014-07-01

    Since the discovery of the first minor planet Ceres, astronomers have faced the problem of determining asteroid orbits and providing reliable ephemeris predictions. Though the theoretical algorithms to solve this problem are well consolidated, we still have to face several challenges when estimating asteroid trajectories. The computation of an asteroid orbit is determined by the optical and radar astrometric observations available. Thus, the observation error model is crucial for providing reliable orbits and uncertainty information. The presence of systematic errors in asteroid optical astrometry is a known issue that we have to deal with. Therefore, we show how to correct for star catalog biases due to star position and proper motion errors by using the PPMXL catalog as reference. Moreover, since the quality of observations from different observatories and different observing programs is uneven, we apply individual data weights to each observation according to the expected quality. We also discuss how to mitigate the possible correlations arising between observations from the same observatory that are closely spaced in time. Beside the treatment of the astrometry, the dynamical model is an essential component when computing asteroid orbits. For a very well constrained orbit, even small accelerations can be required in order to fit the observational dataset and to make reliable predictions. We account for the gravitational attraction due to the Sun, the planets, the Moon, and Pluto as well as that due to the 16 most massive bodies in the main asteroid belt. We also include a relativistic model that account for both Solar and relativistic terms. Non-gravitational perturbations may be a relevant component of the dynamical model and they are difficult to model since they depend on the considered asteroid's physical properties, which are typically unknown. We discuss how to estimate non-gravitational perturbations and the resulting uncertainty by either determining

  3. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  4. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    PubMed Central

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  5. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  6. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  7. DSMC predictions of non-equilibrium reaction rates.

    SciTech Connect

    Gallis, Michail A.; Bond, Ryan Bomar; Torczynski, John Robert

    2010-04-01

    A set of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) chemical-reaction models recently proposed by Bird and based solely on the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels of the species involved is applied to calculate nonequilibrium chemical-reaction rates for atmospheric reactions in hypersonic flows. The DSMC non-equilibrium model predictions are in good agreement with theoretical models and experimental measurements. The observed agreement provides strong evidence that modeling chemical reactions using only the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels provides an accurate method for predicting non-equilibrium chemical-reaction rates.

  8. Predicting perceptual learning from higher-order cortical processing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fang; Huang, Jing; Lv, Yaping; Ma, Xiaoli; Yang, Bin; Wang, Encong; Du, Boqi; Li, Wu; Song, Yan

    2016-01-01

    Visual perceptual learning has been shown to be highly specific to the retinotopic location and attributes of the trained stimulus. Recent psychophysical studies suggest that these specificities, which have been associated with early retinotopic visual cortex, may in fact not be inherent in perceptual learning and could be related to higher-order brain functions. Here we provide direct electrophysiological evidence in support of this proposition. In a series of event-related potential (ERP) experiments, we recorded high-density electroencephalography (EEG) from human adults over the course of learning in a texture discrimination task (TDT). The results consistently showed that the earliest C1 component (68-84ms), known to reflect V1 activity driven by feedforward inputs, was not modulated by learning regardless of whether the behavioral improvement is location specific or not. In contrast, two later posterior ERP components (posterior P1 and P160-350) over the occipital cortex and one anterior ERP component (anterior P160-350) over the prefrontal cortex were progressively modified day by day. Moreover, the change of the anterior component was closely correlated with improved behavioral performance on a daily basis. Consistent with recent psychophysical and imaging observations, our results indicate that perceptual learning can mainly involve changes in higher-level visual cortex as well as in the neural networks responsible for cognitive functions such as attention and decision making.

  9. Reliable activation to novel stimuli predicts higher fluid intelligence.

    PubMed

    Euler, Matthew J; Weisend, Michael P; Jung, Rex E; Thoma, Robert J; Yeo, Ronald A

    2015-07-01

    The ability to reliably respond to stimuli could be an important biological determinant of differences in fluid intelligence (Gf). However, most electrophysiological studies of Gf employ event-related potential (ERP) measures that average brain activity over trials, and hence have limited power to quantify neural variability. Time-frequency analyses can capture cross-trial variation in the phase of neural activity, and thus can help address the importance of neural reliability to differences in Gf. This study recruited a community sample of healthy adults and measured inter-trial phase clustering (ITPC), total spectral power, and ERP amplitudes elicited by Repeated and Novel non-target stimuli during two visual oddball tasks. Condition effects, relations among the EEG measures, and relations with Gf were assessed. Early visual responses to Repeated stimuli elicited higher ITPC, yet only ITPC elicited by Novel stimuli was associated with Gf. Analyses of spectral power further highlighted the contribution of phase consistency to the findings. The link between Gf and reliable responding to changing inputs suggests an important role for flexible resource allocation in fluid intellectual skills.

  10. Prediction of Rate Constants for Catalytic Reactions with Chemical Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Catlow, C Richard A

    2016-08-01

    Ex machina: A computational method for predicting rate constants for reactions within microporous zeolite catalysts with chemical accuracy has recently been reported. A key feature of this method is a stepwise QM/MM approach that allows accuracy to be achieved while using realistic models with accessible computer resources.

  11. Cross-validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background: Knowledge of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) is necessary for determining individual total energy requirements. Measurement of RMR is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, the accuracy of these equations...

  12. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  13. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  14. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  15. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  16. Predictive Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2016-06-01

    Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments confirm a popular intuition: algorithms that cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of finite- and infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting algorithms yield substantial improvements.

  17. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  18. Why Are Phenotypic Mutation Rates Much Higher Than Genotypic Mutation Rates?

    PubMed Central

    Bürger, Reinhard; Willensdorfer, Martin; Nowak, Martin A.

    2006-01-01

    The evolution of genotypic mutation rates has been investigated in numerous theoretical and experimental studies. Mutations, however, occur not only when copying DNA, but also when building the phenotype, especially when translating and transcribing DNA to RNA and protein. Here we study the effect of such phenotypic mutations. We find a maximum phenotypic mutation rate, umax, that is compatible with maintaining a certain function of the organism. This may be called a phenotypic error threshold. In particular, we find a minimum phenotypic mutation rate, umin, with the property that there is (nearly) no selection pressure to reduce the rate of phenotypic mutations below this value. If there is a cost for lowering the phenotypic mutation rate, then umin is close to the optimum phenotypic mutation rate that maximizes the fitness of the organism. In our model, there is selective pressure to decrease the rate of genotypic mutations to zero, but to decrease the rate of phenotypic mutations only to a positive value. Despite its simplicity, our model can explain part of the huge difference between genotypic and phenotypic mutation rates that is observed in nature. The relevant data are summarized. PMID:16143614

  19. Supersonic Jet Noise Reductions Predicted with Increased Jet Spreading Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Morris, Philip J.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of the jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation analysis. A numerical prediction scheme is used for the mean flow providing an efficient method to obtain the mean flow development for various operating conditions and to simulate the enhanced mixing. Using far field radiated noise measurements as a reference, the calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of radiated noise.

  20. The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.

    PubMed

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. PMID:24465452

  1. The Increasing Predictive Validity of Self-Rated Health

    PubMed Central

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. PMID:24465452

  2. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  3. Predicting the emission rate of volatile organic compounds fromvinyl flooring

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, Steven S.; Little, John C.; Hodgson, Alfred T.

    2001-03-01

    A model for predicting the rate at which a volatile organic compound (VOC) is emitted from a diffusion-controlled material is validated for three contaminants (n-pentadecane, n-tetradecane, and phenol) found in vinyl flooring (VF). Model parameters are the initial VOC concentration in the material-phase (C{sub 0}), the material/air partition coefficient (K), and the material-phase diffusion coefficient (D). The model was verified by comparing predicted gas-phase concentrations to data obtained during small-scale chamber tests, and by comparing predicted material-phase concentrations to those measured at the conclusion of the chamber tests. Chamber tests were conducted with the VF placed top side up and bottom side up. With the exception of phenol, and within the limits of experimental precision, the mass of VOCs recovered in the gas phase balances the mass emitted from the material phase. The model parameters (C{sub 0}, K, and D) were measured using procedures that were completely independent of the chamber test. Gas- and material-phase predictions compare well to the bottom-side-up chamber data. The lower emission rates for the top-side-up orientation may be explained by the presence of a low-permeability surface layer. The sink effect of the stainless steel chamber surface was shown to be negligible.

  4. Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

  5. Prediction of microbial growth rate versus biomass yield by a metabolic network with kinetic parameters.

    PubMed

    Adadi, Roi; Volkmer, Benjamin; Milo, Ron; Heinemann, Matthias; Shlomi, Tomer

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the factors that determine microbial growth rate under various environmental and genetic conditions is a major challenge of systems biology. While current genome-scale metabolic modeling approaches enable us to successfully predict a variety of metabolic phenotypes, including maximal biomass yield, the prediction of actual growth rate is a long standing goal. This gap stems from strictly relying on data regarding reaction stoichiometry and directionality, without accounting for enzyme kinetic considerations. Here we present a novel metabolic network-based approach, MetabOlic Modeling with ENzyme kineTics (MOMENT), which predicts metabolic flux rate and growth rate by utilizing prior data on enzyme turnover rates and enzyme molecular weights, without requiring measurements of nutrient uptake rates. The method is based on an identified design principle of metabolism in which enzymes catalyzing high flux reactions across different media tend to be more efficient in terms of having higher turnover numbers. Extending upon previous attempts to utilize kinetic data in genome-scale metabolic modeling, our approach takes into account the requirement for specific enzyme concentrations for catalyzing predicted metabolic flux rates, considering isozymes, protein complexes, and multi-functional enzymes. MOMENT is shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of various metabolic phenotypes in E. coli, including intracellular flux rates and changes in gene expression levels under different growth rates. Most importantly, MOMENT is shown to predict growth rates of E. coli under a diverse set of media that are correlated with experimental measurements, markedly improving upon existing state-of-the art stoichiometric modeling approaches. These results support the view that a physiological bound on cellular enzyme concentrations is a key factor that determines microbial growth rate. PMID:22792053

  6. Prediction of microbial growth rate versus biomass yield by a metabolic network with kinetic parameters.

    PubMed

    Adadi, Roi; Volkmer, Benjamin; Milo, Ron; Heinemann, Matthias; Shlomi, Tomer

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the factors that determine microbial growth rate under various environmental and genetic conditions is a major challenge of systems biology. While current genome-scale metabolic modeling approaches enable us to successfully predict a variety of metabolic phenotypes, including maximal biomass yield, the prediction of actual growth rate is a long standing goal. This gap stems from strictly relying on data regarding reaction stoichiometry and directionality, without accounting for enzyme kinetic considerations. Here we present a novel metabolic network-based approach, MetabOlic Modeling with ENzyme kineTics (MOMENT), which predicts metabolic flux rate and growth rate by utilizing prior data on enzyme turnover rates and enzyme molecular weights, without requiring measurements of nutrient uptake rates. The method is based on an identified design principle of metabolism in which enzymes catalyzing high flux reactions across different media tend to be more efficient in terms of having higher turnover numbers. Extending upon previous attempts to utilize kinetic data in genome-scale metabolic modeling, our approach takes into account the requirement for specific enzyme concentrations for catalyzing predicted metabolic flux rates, considering isozymes, protein complexes, and multi-functional enzymes. MOMENT is shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of various metabolic phenotypes in E. coli, including intracellular flux rates and changes in gene expression levels under different growth rates. Most importantly, MOMENT is shown to predict growth rates of E. coli under a diverse set of media that are correlated with experimental measurements, markedly improving upon existing state-of-the art stoichiometric modeling approaches. These results support the view that a physiological bound on cellular enzyme concentrations is a key factor that determines microbial growth rate.

  7. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  8. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  9. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  10. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  11. Predicting the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial matter

    SciTech Connect

    Reedy, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The production rates of nuclides made by the galactic and solar cosmic rays are important in the interpretations of measurements made with lunar samples, meteorites, and cosmic spherules. Production rates of cosmogenic nuclides have been predicted by a variety of methods that are reviewed in this paper, ranging from systematic studies of one or a group of meteorites to purely theoretical calculations. Production rates can vary with the chemical composition and the preatmospheric depth of the sample and with the size and shape of the object. While the production systematics for cosmogenic nuclides are fairly well known, our ability to predict their production rates can be improved, with a corresponding increase in the scientific return. Additional detailed studies of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial objects are needed, especially for fairly small and very large objects. Nuclides made in simulation experiments and cross sections for many major nuclear reactions should be measured. Such studies are especially needed for the long-lived radionuclides that have only recently become readily measurable by accelerator mass spectrometry. 34 refs., 5 figs.

  12. Impedance analysis of porous carbon electrodes to predict rate capability of electric double-layer capacitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Hyun Deog; Jang, Jong Hyun; Ryu, Ji Heon; Park, Yuwon; Oh, Seung M.

    2014-12-01

    Electrochemical impedance analysis is performed to predict the rate capability of two commercial activated carbon electrodes (RP20 and MSP20) for electric double-layer capacitor. To this end, ac impedance data are fitted with an equivalent circuit that comprises ohmic resistance and impedance of intra-particle pores. To characterize the latter, ionic accessibility into intra-particle pores is profiled by using the fitted impedance parameters, and the profiles are transformed into utilizable capacitance plots as a function of charge-discharge rate. The rate capability that is predicted from the impedance analysis is well-matched with that observed from a charge-discharge rate test. It is found that rate capability is determined by ionic accessibility as well as ohmic voltage drop. A lower value in ionic accessibility for MSP20 is attributed to smaller pore diameter, longer length, and higher degree of complexity in pore structure.

  13. Comparing Observed with Predicted Weekly Influenza-Like Illness Rates during the Winter Holiday Break, United States, 2004-2013

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Hongjiang; Wong, Karen K.; Zheteyeva, Yenlik; Shi, Jianrong; Uzicanin, Amra; Rainey, Jeanette J.

    2015-01-01

    In the United States, influenza season typically begins in October or November, peaks in February, and tapers off in April. During the winter holiday break, from the end of December to the beginning of January, changes in social mixing patterns, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and surveillance reporting could affect influenza-like illness (ILI) rates. We compared predicted with observed weekly ILI to examine trends around the winter break period. We examined weekly rates of ILI by region in the United States from influenza season 2003–2004 to 2012–2013. We compared observed and predicted ILI rates from week 44 to week 8 of each influenza season using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Of 1,530 region, week, and year combinations, 64 observed ILI rates were significantly higher than predicted by the model. Of these, 21 occurred during the typical winter holiday break period (weeks 51–52); 12 occurred during influenza season 2012–2013. There were 46 observed ILI rates that were significantly lower than predicted. Of these, 16 occurred after the typical holiday break during week 1, eight of which occurred during season 2012–2013. Of 90 (10 HHS regions x 9 seasons) predictions during the peak week, 78 predicted ILI rates were lower than observed. Out of 73 predictions for the post-peak week, 62 ILI rates were higher than observed. There were 53 out of 73 models that had lower peak and higher post-peak predicted ILI rates than were actually observed. While most regions had ILI rates higher than predicted during winter holiday break and lower than predicted after the break during the 2012–2013 season, overall there was not a consistent relationship between observed and predicted ILI around the winter holiday break during the other influenza seasons. PMID:26649568

  14. Variations in the Rate at Which Students Cross the Boundaries between Australian Vocational and Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moodie, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the rate at which students are crossing the boundaries between Australian vocational and higher education. It finds that public universities admit a higher proportion of students on the basis of a vocational education qualification than do private colleges and that private colleges broadly do not admit a higher proportion of…

  15. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    PubMed

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated.

  16. Historical mutation rates predict susceptibility to radiation in Chernobyl birds.

    PubMed

    Møller, A P; Erritzøe, J; Karadas, F; Mousseau, T A

    2010-10-01

    Extreme environmental perturbations are rare, but may have important evolutionary consequences. Responses to current perturbations may provide important information about the ability of living organisms to cope with similar conditions in the evolutionary past. Radioactive contamination from Chernobyl constitutes one such extreme perturbation, with significant but highly variable impact on local population density and mutation rates of different species of animals and plants. We explicitly tested the hypothesis that species with strong impacts of radiation on abundance were those with high rates of historical mutation accumulation as reflected by cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA base-pair substitution rates during past environmental perturbations. Using a dataset of 32 species of birds, we show higher historical mitochondrial substitution rates in species with the strongest negative impact of local levels of radiation on local population density. These effects were robust to different estimates of impact of radiation on abundance, weighting of estimates of abundance by sample size, statistical control for similarity in the response among species because of common phylogenetic descent, and effects of population size and longevity. Therefore, species that respond strongly to the impact of radiation from Chernobyl are also the species that in the past have been most susceptible to factors that have caused high substitution rates in mitochondrial DNA.

  17. Higher Rates of Bone Loss in Postmenopausal HIV-Infected Women: A Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chiyuan A.; McMahon, Donald J.; Ferris, David C.; Irani, Dinaz; Colon, Ivelisse; Cremers, Serge; Shane, Elizabeth

    2012-01-01

    Context and Objective: The objective of the study was to assess the effects of HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy on change in bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal minority women. Design, Setting, and Patients: We report a longitudinal analysis of change in BMD with a median duration of 15.4 (interquartile range 13.1, 20.7) months in a prospective cohort study of 128 (73 HIV+, 55 HIV−) postmenopausal Hispanic and African-American women. Main Outcome Measures: Annualized change in BMD by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and correlation with baseline markers of bone turnover and serum levels of inflammatory cytokines were measured. Results: HIV+ women were younger (56 ± 1 vs. 59 ± 1 yr, P < 0.05) and had lower body mass index (BMI; 28 ± 1 vs. 31 ± 1 kg/m2, P < 0.01). The majority of HIV+ women were on established antiretroviral therapy for more than 3 yr. At baseline, BMD, adjusted for age, race, and BMI, was lower in HIV+ women at the lumbar spine (LS), total hip, and radius and serum C-telopeptide was higher. Annualized rates of bone loss adjusted for baseline BMD were higher in HIV+ women by 2.4-fold at the LS (−1.2 ± 0.3% vs. −0.5 ± 0.3%, P = 0.0009), 3.7-fold at the one third radius (−1.1 ± 0.2% vs. −0.3 ± 0.2, P = 0.006) and 1.7-fold at the ultradistal radius (−1.2 ± 0.2% vs. −0.7 ± 0.2%, P = 0.02). In multivariate analysis, HIV+ status predicted bone loss at the LS, total hip, and ultradistal radius. Among HIV+ women, lower BMI, higher markers of bone turnover levels, and tenofovir were associated with more bone loss. Conclusion: HIV+ postmenopausal minority women had lower BMD, increased bone turnover, and higher rates of bone loss than HIV− women. These features may place these women at increased risk for fracture as they age. PMID:22090266

  18. Predicting Buoyant Shear Flows Using Anisotropic Dissipation Rate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    So, R. M. C.; Zhao, C. Y.; Gatski, T. B.

    1999-01-01

    This paper examines the modeling of two-dimensional homogeneous stratified turbulent shear flows using the Reynolds-stress and Reynolds-heat-flux equations. Several closure models have been investigated-, the emphasis is placed on assessing the effect of modeling the dissipation rate tensor in the Reynolds-stress equation. Three different approaches are considered: one is an isotropic approach while the other two are anisotropic approaches. The isotropic approach is based on Kolmogorov's hypothesis and a dissipation rate equation modified to account for vortex stretching. One of the anisotropic approaches is based on an algebraic representation of the dissipation rate tensor, while another relies on solving a modeled transport equation for this tensor. In addition, within the former anisotropic approach, two different algebraic representations are examined one is a function of the Reynolds-stress anisotropy tensor, and the other is a function of' the mean velocity gradients. The performance of these closure models is evaluated against experimental and direct numerical simulation data of pure shear flows. pure buoyant flows and buoyant shear flows. Calculations have been carried out over a range of Richardson numbers (Ri) and two different Prandtl numbers (Pr); thus the effect of Pr on the development of counter-gradient heat flux in a stratified shear flow can be assessed. At low Ri, the isotropic model performs well in the predictions of stratified shear flows; however, its performance deteriorates as Ri increases. At high Ri, the transport equation model for the dissipation rate tensor gives the best result. Furthermore, the results also lend credence to the algebraic dissipation rate model based on the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor. Finally, it is found that Pr has an effect on the development of counter-gradient heat flux. The calculations show that, under the action of shear, counter-gradient heat flux does not occur even at Ri = 1 in an air flow.

  19. Melt rate predictions for slurry-fed glass melters

    SciTech Connect

    Freeman, C.J.

    1996-03-01

    Numerous bench-scale and pilot-scale tests have been conducted to support high-level waste vitrification projects within DOE. These projects include the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWP), the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), and the West Valley Demonstration Project (MNDP). Testing for these projects has investigated aspects of the vitrification process such as the pumpability of the slurry feed, melter processing rates, melter scale-up, and off-gas decontamination factors for feed constituents. The high costs for testing have generated interest in using modeling to predict major processing impacts on the vitrification systems from any given feed material. Important components required for such modeling include feed composition, feed rheology, melter glass temperature, melter geometry, and melter power configurations. I Some work has already been performed in modeling glass melters, but little attention has been given to feed composition (Routt 1982).

  20. Theoretical prediction of regression rates in swirl-injection hybrid rocket engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozawa, K.; Shimada, T.

    2016-07-01

    The authors theoretically and analytically predict what times regression rates of swirl injection hybrid rocket engines increase higher than the axial injection ones by estimating heat flux from boundary layer combustion to the fuel port. The schematic of engines is assumed as ones whose oxidizer is injected from the opposite side of the nozzle such as ones of Yuasa et al. propose. To simplify the estimation, we assume some hypotheses such as three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric flows have been assumed. The results of this prediction method are largely consistent with Yuasa's experiments data in the range of high swirl numbers.

  1. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

  2. Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

    2014-01-01

    In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

  3. A Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scales Approach to Institutional Self-Assessment in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pounder, J. S.

    2000-01-01

    Reports a study which used the effectiveness criteria contained in the Competing Values Model of Organizational Effectiveness to produce a set of organizational effectiveness self-rating scales for Hong Kong higher educational institutions. Scales were developed using the behaviorally anchored rating scales procedure. Highlights the qualitative…

  4. Glomerular filtration rate in cows estimated by a prediction formula.

    PubMed

    Murayama, Isao; Miyano, Anna; Sato, Tsubasa; Iwama, Ryosuke; Satoh, Hiroshi; Ichijyo, Toshihiro; Sato, Shigeru; Furuhama, Kazuhisa

    2014-12-01

    To testify the relevance of Jacobsson's equation for estimating bovine glomerular filtration rate (GFR), we prepared an integrated formula based on its equation using clinically healthy dairy (n=99) and beef (n=63) cows, and cows with reduced renal function (n=15). The isotonic, nonionic, contrast medium iodixanol was utilized as a test tracer. The GFR values estimated from the integrated formula were well consistent with those from the standard multisample method in each cow strain, and the Holstein equation prepared by a single blood sample in Holstein dairy cows. The basal reference GFR value in healthy dairy cows was significantly higher than that in healthy beef cows, presumably due to a breed difference or physiological state difference. It is concluded that the validity for the application of Jacobsson's equation to estimate bovine GFR is proven and it can be used in bovine practices.

  5. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    PubMed Central

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  6. Unfolded protein ensembles, folding trajectories, and refolding rate prediction.

    PubMed

    Das, A; Sin, B K; Mohazab, A R; Plotkin, S S

    2013-09-28

    Computer simulations can provide critical information on the unfolded ensemble of proteins under physiological conditions, by explicitly characterizing the geometrical properties of the diverse conformations that are sampled in the unfolded state. A general computational analysis across many proteins has not been implemented however. Here, we develop a method for generating a diverse conformational ensemble, to characterize properties of the unfolded states of intrinsically disordered or intrinsically folded proteins. The method allows unfolded proteins to retain disulfide bonds. We examined physical properties of the unfolded ensembles of several proteins, including chemical shifts, clustering properties, and scaling exponents for the radius of gyration with polymer length. A problem relating simulated and experimental residual dipolar couplings is discussed. We apply our generated ensembles to the problem of folding kinetics, by examining whether the ensembles of some proteins are closer geometrically to their folded structures than others. We find that for a randomly selected dataset of 15 non-homologous 2- and 3-state proteins, quantities such as the average root mean squared deviation between the folded structure and unfolded ensemble correlate with folding rates as strongly as absolute contact order. We introduce a new order parameter that measures the distance travelled per residue, which naturally partitions into a smooth "laminar" and subsequent "turbulent" part of the trajectory. This latter conceptually simple measure with no fitting parameters predicts folding rates in 0 M denaturant with remarkable accuracy (r = -0.95, p = 1 × 10(-7)). The high correlation between folding times and sterically modulated, reconfigurational motion supports the rapid collapse of proteins prior to the transition state as a generic feature in the folding of both two-state and multi-state proteins. This method for generating unfolded ensembles provides a powerful approach to

  7. Unfolded protein ensembles, folding trajectories, and refolding rate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, A.; Sin, B. K.; Mohazab, A. R.; Plotkin, S. S.

    2013-09-01

    Computer simulations can provide critical information on the unfolded ensemble of proteins under physiological conditions, by explicitly characterizing the geometrical properties of the diverse conformations that are sampled in the unfolded state. A general computational analysis across many proteins has not been implemented however. Here, we develop a method for generating a diverse conformational ensemble, to characterize properties of the unfolded states of intrinsically disordered or intrinsically folded proteins. The method allows unfolded proteins to retain disulfide bonds. We examined physical properties of the unfolded ensembles of several proteins, including chemical shifts, clustering properties, and scaling exponents for the radius of gyration with polymer length. A problem relating simulated and experimental residual dipolar couplings is discussed. We apply our generated ensembles to the problem of folding kinetics, by examining whether the ensembles of some proteins are closer geometrically to their folded structures than others. We find that for a randomly selected dataset of 15 non-homologous 2- and 3-state proteins, quantities such as the average root mean squared deviation between the folded structure and unfolded ensemble correlate with folding rates as strongly as absolute contact order. We introduce a new order parameter that measures the distance travelled per residue, which naturally partitions into a smooth "laminar" and subsequent "turbulent" part of the trajectory. This latter conceptually simple measure with no fitting parameters predicts folding rates in 0 M denaturant with remarkable accuracy (r = -0.95, p = 1 × 10-7). The high correlation between folding times and sterically modulated, reconfigurational motion supports the rapid collapse of proteins prior to the transition state as a generic feature in the folding of both two-state and multi-state proteins. This method for generating unfolded ensembles provides a powerful approach to

  8. The active metabolic rate predicts a male spider's proximity to females and expected fitness.

    PubMed

    Kasumovic, Michael M; Seebacher, Frank

    2013-04-23

    Conspicuous traits, such as weaponry and body size, are often correlated with fitness. By contrast, we understand less about how inconspicuous physiological traits affect fitness. Not only is linking physiology directly to fitness a challenge, but in addition, behavioural studies most often focus on resting or basal metabolic rates, resulting in a poor understanding of how active metabolic rates affect fitness. Here we use the golden orb-web spider (Nephila plumipes), a species for which proximity to a female on the web predicts a male's paternity share, to examine the role of resting and active metabolic rates in fitness. Using a semi-natural experimental set-up, we show that males closer to a female have higher active metabolic rates than males further from females. This higher metabolic activity is paralleled by increased citrate synthase activity, suggesting greater mitochondrial densities. Our results link both higher active metabolic rates and increased citrate synthase activity with fitness. Coupled with the behaviour and life history of N. plumipes, these results provide insight into the evolution of physiological systems.

  9. Reading the IT Leaves: Four Predictions for Higher Education Technology in 2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grush, Mary

    2011-01-01

    No start to the new year is complete without media prognostications for the 12 months ahead. Leaving the social, political, and economic fad predictions to others, "CT" asked four members of its editorial and conference advisory boards to identify information technology trends in higher education that are beginning to take real hold in 2011--the…

  10. Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

  11. Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

  12. Higher infused lymphocyte dose predicts higher lymphocyte recovery, which in turn, predicts superior overall survival following autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Hiwase, Devendra K; Hiwase, Smita; Bailey, Michael; Bollard, Geraldine; Schwarer, Anthony P

    2008-01-01

    Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is the standard of care for patients with multiple myeloma (MM) younger than 70 years. However, despite this aggressive therapy most patients will still die of progressive disease. Recent reports have suggested that lymphocyte recovery is an important predictor of relapse or progressive disease in a number of hematologic malignancies including MM. We have conducted retrospective analysis of factors that could predict overall (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) in patients with MM who had ASCT. One hundred nineteen patients with multiple myeloma underwent ASCT. The median OS and PFS were 64 and 32 months, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that absolute lymphocyte count on day 30 following ASCT (ALC-30), international staging system (ISS) stage at diagnosis, and age at diagnosis significantly influenced OS and PFS following ASCT. OS (96 versus 48 months, P = .04) and PFS (43 versus 29 months, P = .03) following ASCT were higher in patients with ALC-30 >or=1.0 x 10(9)/L compared to patients ALC-30 <1.0 x 10(9)/L. Higher ALC-60, ALC-100, ALC-180, and ALC-365 did not predict superior OS and PFS. Patients with early-stage disease had significantly higher OS (ISS stages I, II, and III: 96, 53, and 29 months, respectively; P = .0023) and PFS (ISS stages I, II, and III: 55.5, 31, and 12 months, respectively; P = .027) compared to patients with advanced-stage disease at diagnosis. On univariate analysis, the type of initial chemotherapy (melphalan, VAD, PCAB), lymphocyte count on day of leukapheresis, and the lymphocyte dose infused (LY-DO) significantly influenced lymphocyte recovery following ASCT. Patients who received higher lymphocyte dose (LY-DO) >or=0.2 x 10(9)/kg had higher median ALC-15 (0.25 versus 0.19 x 10(9)/L; P = .3), ALC-30 (1.20 versus 0.99 x 10(9)/L; P = .08), ALC-60 (1.90 versus 1.01 x 10(9)/L; P = .013), ALC-100 (1.58 versus 1.03 x 10

  13. ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

  14. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    PubMed Central

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed. PMID:25152877

  15. Higher Fibrinogen Levels Predict Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, T.C.; Snell-Bergeon, J.K.; Maahs, D.M; Kinney, G.L.; Rewers, M.

    2010-01-01

    Aim To determine whether fibrinogen levels predict independently progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in adults with type 1 diabetes. Methods Data from a prospective cohort - the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes Study - were evaluated. Fibrinogen levels at baseline were separated into quartiles. CAC was measured twice and averaged at baseline and at follow-up 2.4 ± 0.4 years later. CAC progressors were defined as participants whose square-root transformed CAC volume increased by ≥ 2.53 or development mm of clinical coronary artery disease during the follow-up period. Results Fibrinogen levels were higher in progressors than in non-progressors (276 ± 61 mg/dl versus 259 ± 61 mg/dl, p = 0.0003). CAC progression, adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors, increased in the highest quartile. Conclusions Higher fibrinogen levels predict CAC progression in type 1 diabetes subjects, independent of standard cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:20079495

  16. Higher-order prediction terms and fixing the renormalization scale using the BLM approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirjalili, Abolfazl; Khellat, Mohammad Reza

    2014-12-01

    There is an ambiguity in the perturbative series of QCD observables on how to choose the renormalization and even more the factorization scale. There are many approaches to overcome this obstacle and to fix the scales. Among them, there is the Brodsky-Lepage-Mackenzie (BLM) approach which is based on an intriguing principle. Based on the BLM approach, we intend to absorb the nf-terms in the pQCD series that rightly determines the running behavior of the running coupling into the running coupling. We make an extensive use of the BLM approach to investigate the details of predicting higher order correction terms of some QCD observables. By this way we test different methods to improve the prediction process. It is also found out that an overall normalization could change BLM predictions effectively.

  17. A continual model of soil organic matter transformations for predicting soil forming dynamics inside higher plant CELSS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartsev, S. I.; Pochekutov, A. A.

    2013-03-01

    A continual model of humification and mineralization of soil organic matter (SOM) formed under the conditions of a Lunar base from biological waste materials is proposed. The model parameters corresponding to the conditions of several Earths climatic regions are estimated. The time necessary for the formation of organic matter in the soil based on regolith and higher plant residues has been evaluated. Soil formation under tropical conditions are shown to be the most appropriate for Lunar base CELSS due to high matter turnover rate, relatively short formation time, minimum deposited mass, and satisfactory predictability of expected soil parameters.

  18. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models.

    PubMed

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-08-10

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m(-2) year(-1). These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world's biodiversity.

  19. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models

    PubMed Central

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-01-01

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m−2 year−1. These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world’s biodiversity. PMID:26255956

  20. Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeager, Stephen G.; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan

    2015-12-01

    Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions.

  1. Tests of a TGM-96 boiler unit at higher than rated load

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kholshchev, V. V.

    2011-09-01

    Results of boiler tests are presented that were carried out at boiler loads up to 1.1 of its rated value, during which the steam superheater's temperature operating conditions were checked, and the parameters characterizing the quality of steam, feedwater, and boiler water were determined. Figures characterizing the longevity of steam superheater tubes are presented that were calculated taking into account the boiler operating mode with a higher-than-nominal load.

  2. Do Higher Sea-cliff Retreat Rates Imply Faster Sea-cliff Retreat?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mushkin, A.; Katz, O.; Porat, N.

    2015-12-01

    Inland retreat of sea cliffs in response to post LGM (last glacial maximum) sea-level rise is an ongoing process that affects coastal environments and communities worldwide. Here, we examine a globally recurring pattern where reported sea-cliff retreat rates since the 20th century often appear to exceed longer-term millennial-scale ('background') rates that rarely exceed ~0.1 m/yr. Focusing on Israel's 30-km-long Mediterranean 'Sharon' sea-cliff as a case study we demonstrate that such apparent increase in rates may also reflect a widely acknowledged sampling bias in geologic rate estimates inferred from observation time windows ('Tobs') shorter than process episodicity. We show that this possible bias leads to an ambiguity in conventional rate estimates obtained by averaging observed retreat distances over Tobs, and that as a result despite ubiquitous and robust observations of cliff retreat since the 20th century (e.g., aerial photographs) recent/current retreat rates for many of the world's episodically retreating sea cliffs remain essentially unknown. To address this present limitation in our ability to detect and quantify recent changes in sea-cliff retreat rates we use airborne LiDAR to measure the continuous wave-driven volumetric erosion of collapsed material from the cliff base as an effective upper-bound constraint for the m/yr rate of episodic retreat of the cliff itself. We find that while conventional retreat rate estimates since the 20th century along the Sharon sea cliff artefactually increase up to several m/yr as an inverse function of Tobs, the LiDAR-constrained retreat rates are not susceptible to this sampling bias, are comparable to the cliff's background retreat rate of 0.03-0.07 m/yr since the mid Holocene and thus indicate no recent acceleration in retreat. This ability to unambiguously constrain sea-cliff retreat rates with annual to decadal-scale observations directly impacts the global-scale push to quantify, better understand and

  3. Significantly Higher Prevalence Rate of Asthma and Bipolar Disorder Co-Morbidity

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Ming-Kung; Wang, Hung-Yu; Chen, Yen-Wen; Lin, Pao-Yen; Wu, Ching-Kuan; Tseng, Ping-Tao

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Asthma and bipolar disorder (BD) are 2 distinct diseases that share similar pathophysiology. This study aimed to determine their relationship thorough a meta-analysis of articles on their comorbidity rate. The aim of the study is to examine the overall prevalence rate of BD in asthmatic patients and of asthma in BD patients compared to healthy controls. Electronic research of PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov was performed. Articles discussing the prevalence rate of BD in patients with/without asthma and the prevalence rate of asthma in those with/without BD, as well as clinical trials in humans and case-controlled trials or cohort studies, were all included. Case reports or series and nonclinical trials were excluded. Through a random-effects model, a meta-analysis of the results of 4 studies comparing the prevalence rate of BD in patients with/without asthma, and in 6 studies comparing the prevalence rate of asthma in subjects with/without BD were performed. There were significantly higher prevalence rates of BD in asthmatic patients than in healthy controls (P < 0.001) and of asthma in BD patients than in healthy controls (P < 0.001). Only the patient's mean age significantly modulated the odds ratio of the prevalence rate of asthma in BD patients (slope = 0.015, P < 0.001). Only 10 studies were included and most were cross-sectional studies. The possible confounding effect of medication on BD or asthma onset was not investigated. Any possible etiology of the comorbidity was also not determined. This meta-analysis highlights the importance of the significantly high comorbid rate of BD and asthma, and the positive association with age. Special attention must be given to the comorbidity of asthma and BD, especially in older patients. PMID:27043688

  4. Protein Thermodynamics Can Be Predicted Directly from Biological Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A.; Bowman, John P.; Ratkowsky, David A.; Olley, June; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122°C). The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model. PMID:24787650

  5. Spontaneous eye blink rate predicts learning from negative, but not positive, outcomes.

    PubMed

    Slagter, Heleen A; Georgopoulou, Katerina; Frank, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    A large body of research shows that striatal dopamine critically affects the extent to which we learn from the positive and negative outcomes of our decisions. In this study, we examined the relationship between reinforcement learning and spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR), a cheap, non-invasive, and easy to obtain marker of striatal dopaminergic activity. Based on previous findings from pharmacological and patient studies, our main prediction was that in healthy individuals, low blink rates (and concomitant lower striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with better learning from negative choices, while high blink rates (and concomitant higher striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with learning from positive choices. Behavioral analyses showed that in healthy individuals, lower blink rates were indeed associated with greater learning from negative outcomes, indicating that lower dopamine levels per se may enhance avoidance learning. Yet, higher EBR was not associated with better learning from positive outcomes. These observations support the notion that sEBR reflects tonic dopamine levels, and suggest that sEBR may specifically relate to dopamine D2 receptor function, given the importance of the dopaminergic D2 pathway in avoidance learning. More generally, these findings highlight the usefulness of sEBR as a non-invasive and cheap method for assessing the relationship between striatal dopaminergic function and behavior.

  6. The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2016-01-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

  7. Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

    1997-01-01

    Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

  8. Lower Provider Volume is Associated with Higher Failure Rates for Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography

    PubMed Central

    Coté, Gregory A.; Imler, Timothy D.; Xu, Huiping; Teal, Evgenia; French, Dustin D.; Imperiale, Thomas F.; Rosenman, Marc B.; Wilson, Jeffery; Hui, Siu L.; Sherman, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    Background Among physicians who perform endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), the relationship between procedure volume and outcome is unknown. Objective Quantify the ERCP volume-outcome relationship by measuring provider-specific failure rates, hospitalization rates and other quality measures. Research Design Retrospective Cohort Subjects 16,968 ERCPs performed by 130 physicians between 2001-2011, identified in the Indiana Network for Patient Care (INPC) Measures Physicians were classified by their average annual INPC volume and stratified into low (<25/year) and high (≥25/year). Outcomes included failed procedures, defined as repeat ERCP, percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography or surgical exploration of the bile duct ≤ 7 days after the index procedure, hospitalization rates, and 30-day mortality. Results Among 15,514 index ERCPs, there were 1,163 (7.5%) failures; the failure rate was higher among low (9.5%) compared to high volume (5.7%) providers (p<0.001). A second ERCP within 7 days (a subgroup of failure rate) occurred more frequently when the original ERCP was performed by a low (4.1%) versus a high volume physician (2.3%, p=0.013). Patients were more frequently hospitalized within 24 hours when the ERCP was performed by a low (28.3%) vs. high volume physician (14.8%, p=0.002). Mortality within 30 days was similar (low – 1.9%, high – 1.9%). Among low volume physicians and after adjusting, the odds of having a failed procedure decreased 3.3% (95% CI 1.6-5.0%, p<0.001) with each additional ERCP performed per year. Conclusions Lower provider volume is associated with higher failure rate for ERCP, and greater need for post-procedure hospitalization. PMID:24226304

  9. Cross-validation of recent and longstanding resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence predicted RMR accuracy at the individual lev...

  10. Lower than predicted resting metabolic rate is associated with severely impaired cardiorespiratory fitness in obese individuals.

    PubMed

    Miller, Wendy M; Spring, Thomas J; Zalesin, Kerstyn C; Kaeding, Kaylee R; Nori Janosz, Katherine E; McCullough, Peter A; Franklin, Barry A

    2012-03-01

    Obese individuals have reduced cardiorespiratory fitness as compared with leaner counterparts. Regular exercise maintains or increases fitness and lean body mass. Lean body mass, in turn, has a direct impact on resting metabolic rate (RMR). Given these relationships, we sought to evaluate the association between RMR and cardiorespiratory fitness in obese individuals. We evaluated 64 obese individuals (78% female) with direct assessment of RMR and cardiorespiratory fitness via breath-by-breath measurement of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production at rest and during exercise. The mean age and BMI were 47.4 ± 12.2 years and 47.2 ± 9.2 kg/m(2), respectively. The majority of subjects, 69%, had a measured RMR above that predicted by the Harris-Benedict equation. Compared with the higher RMR group, those with a lower than predicted RMR had increased BMI, with values of 52.9 vs. 44.7 kg/m(2), P = 0.001, respectively. Analysis of those demonstrating significant effort during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (peak respiratory exchange ratio ≥1.10) revealed a significantly higher peak oxygen uptake (VO(2) peak) in the higher RMR group (17.3 ± 3.5 ml/min/kg) compared with the lower RMR group (13.6 ± 1.9 ml/min/kg), P = 0.003. In summary, a lower than predicted RMR was associated with a severely reduced VO(2) peak and a higher BMI in this cohort. These data suggest that morbid obesity may be a vicious cycle of increasing BMI, reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, muscle deconditioning, and lower RMR. Collectively, these responses may, over time, exacerbate the imbalance between energy intake and expenditure, resulting in progressive increases in body weight and fat stores.

  11. Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Roop N.; Jones, Jim J.; Rochelle, William C.

    1992-01-01

    The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

  12. What Factors Predict Student Self-Rated Physical Health?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vingilis, Evelyn; Wade, Terrance J.; Adlaf, Edward

    1998-01-01

    Data from a randomly selected sample of 840 Ontario students were used to examine factors that affect self-rated physical health. Analyses focused on demographics, family structure, financial situation, child-parent relationship, school achievement, self-esteem, alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use as factors which directly and indirectly influence…

  13. Prediction of critical grout parameters: critical flow rate

    SciTech Connect

    Tallent, O.K.; McDaniel, E.W.; Godsey, T.T.; Dodson, K.E.

    1986-01-01

    Waste disposal is rapidly becoming one of the most important technological endeavors of our time and fixation of waste in cement-based materials is an important part of the endeavor. Investigations of given wastes are usually individually conducted and reported. In this study, data obtained from investigation of critical flow rates for three distinctly different wastes are correlated with apparent viscosity data via a single empirical equation. Critical flow rate, which is an important variable in waste grout work, is defined as the flow rate at which a grout must be pumped through a reference pipe to obtain turbulent flow. It is important that the grout flow be turbulent since laminar flow allows caking on pipe walls and causes eventual plugging. The three wastes used in this study can be characterized as containing: (1) high nitrate, carbonate, and sulfate; (2) high phosphate; and (3) high fluoride, ammonium, and suspended solids waste. The measurements of apparent viscosity (grouts are non-Newtonian fluids) and other measurements to obtain data to calculate the critical flow rates were made using a Fann-Direct Reading Viscometer, Model 35A.

  14. Higher Crash and Near-Crash Rates in Teenaged Drivers With Lower Cortisol Response

    PubMed Central

    Ouimet, Marie Claude; Brown, Thomas G.; Guo, Feng; Klauer, Sheila G.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Fang, Youjia; Lee, Suzanne E.; Gianoulakis, Christina; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Road traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of injury and death among teenagers worldwide. Better understanding of the individual pathways to driving risk may lead to better-targeted intervention in this vulnerable group. OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between cortisol, a neurobiological marker of stress regulation linked to risky behavior, and driving risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study was designed to continuously monitor the driving behavior of teenagers by instrumenting vehicles with kinematic sensors, cameras, and a global positioning system. During 2006–2008, a community sample of 42 newly licensed 16-year-old volunteer participants in the United States was recruited and driving behavior monitored. It was hypothesized in teenagers that higher cortisol response to stress is associated with (1) lower crash and near-crash (CNC) rates during their first 18 months of licensure and (2) faster reduction in CNC rates over time. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants’ cortisol response during a stress-inducing task was assessed at baseline, followed by measurement of their involvement in CNCs and driving exposure during their first 18 months of licensure. Mixed-effect Poisson longitudinal regression models were used to examine the association between baseline cortisol response and CNC rates during the follow-up period. RESULTS Participants with a higher baseline cortisol response had lower CNC rates during the follow-up period (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.93; 95%CI, 0.88–0.98) and faster decrease in CNC rates over time (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.98; 95%, CI, 0.96–0.99). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cortisol is a neurobiological marker associated with teenaged-driving risk. As in other problem-behavior fields, identification of an objective marker of teenaged-driving risk promises the development of more personalized intervention approaches. PMID:24710522

  15. Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

    PubMed

    Tran, Lucy A P

    2016-04-01

    Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

  16. Rate of Contrast Extravasation on CT Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Brouwers, H. Bart; Battey, Thomas W.K.; Musial, Hayley H.; Ciura, Viesha A.; Falcone, Guido J.; Ayres, Alison M.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D.; Greenberg, Steven M.; Pomerantz, Stuart R.; Ortiz, Claudia J.; Goldstein, Joshua N.; Gonzalez, R. Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose In primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the presence of contrast extravasation following CT angiography (CTA), termed the ‘spot sign’, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Since the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation - which may reflect the rate of bleeding - predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Methods Consecutive ICH patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed post-contrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by two blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and ICH volumes were measured using semi-automated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Results 162 patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23mL/min overall, and 0.30mL/min among expanders versus 0.07mL/min in non-expanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27mL/min versus 0.04mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (OR1.09 [95%CI 1.04–1.18], p=0.004), 90-day mortality (OR1.15 [95%CI 1.08–1.27], p=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (OR1.03 [95%CI 1.01–1.08], p=0.047). Conclusions Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute ICH. PMID:26243220

  17. Predicting Fruit Fly's Sensing Rate From Insect Flight Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jane; Chang, Song

    2013-11-01

    Without sensory feedbacks, flies cannot fly. Exactly how sensory feedback controls work in flying insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure in order to stabilize their flight? What kinds of neural computations and muscle activities are involved in order to correct their flight course or to turn? How often and how fast do animals adjust their wings to remain stable? To understand the algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we have developed a simulation tool to study flapping flight, where motions of the insect body and wings are coupled instantaneously. To stabilize the flight in the simulation, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds both on the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting these findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we give a sharper bound on the sensing rate and further reason that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing-beat in order to stabilize their flight.

  18. Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

    PubMed

    Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

    2016-09-01

    Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies. PMID:27467860

  19. Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumazawa, T.; Ogata, Y.; Kimura, Y.; Maeda, K.; Kobayashi, A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed several times since 1980s monitored by strain-meters located nearby. Major swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic and preseismic significant sizes of a volumetric strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013), and have found the followings. The modified volumetric strain change data by removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps have much higher cross-correlations to the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate change of the ETAS, and further the strain changes precede the background seismicity by lag of about a day. This relation suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms in this region. References Earthquake Research Committee (2010). Report on "Prediction of seismic activity in the Izu Eastern Region" (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku/izu/index.htm Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS model, J Geophys.Res. 118, 6165-6182.

  20. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

    PubMed

    Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

    2015-12-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness.

  1. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

    PubMed

    Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

    2015-12-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

  2. Augmenting data rate performance for higher order modulation in triangular index profile multicore fiber interconnect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Jitendra K.; Priye, Vishnu; Rahman, B. M. A.

    2016-07-01

    A triangular profile multicore fiber (MCF) optical interconnect (OI) is investigated to augment performance that typically degrades at high data rates for higher order modulation in a short reach transmission system. Firstly, probability density functions (PDFs) variation with inter-core crosstalk is calculated for 8-core MCF OI with different index profile in the core and it was observed that the triangular profile MCF OI is the most crosstalk tolerant. Next, symbol error probability (SEP) for higher order quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) modulated signal due to inter-core crosstalk is analytically obtained and their dependence on typical characteristic parameters are examined. Further, numerical simulations are carried out to compare the error performance of QPSK for step index and triangular index MCF OI by generating eye diagram at 40 Gbps per channel. Finally, it is shown that MCF OI with triangular index profile supporting QPSK has double spectral efficiency with tolerable trade off in SEP as compared with those of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) at high data rates which is scalable up to 5 Tbps.

  3. Age of acquisition predicts rate of lexical evolution.

    PubMed

    Monaghan, Padraic

    2014-12-01

    The processes taking place during language acquisition are proposed to influence language evolution. However, evidence demonstrating the link between language learning and language evolution is, at best, indirect, constituting studies of laboratory-based artificial language learning studies or computational simulations of diachronic change. In the current study, a direct link between acquisition and evolution is established, showing that for two hundred fundamental vocabulary items, the age at which words are acquired is a predictor of the rate at which they have changed in studies of language evolution. Early-acquired words are more salient and easier to process than late-acquired words, and these early-acquired words are also more stably represented within the community's language. Analysing the properties of these early-acquired words potentially provides insight into the origins of communication, highlighting features of words that have been ultra-conserved in language.

  4. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation

    PubMed Central

    Papas, Klearchos K.; Bellin, Melena D.; Sutherland, David E. R.; Suszynski, Thomas M.; Kitzmann, Jennifer P.; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S.; Gruessner, Angelika C.; Mueller, Kathryn R.; Beilman, Gregory J.; Balamurugan, Appakalai N.; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K.; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C.; Wilhelm, Josh J.; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C.; Hering, Bernhard J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Methods Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6–12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Conclusions Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations. PMID:26258815

  5. Maternal use of cigarettes, pipes, and smokeless tobacco associated with higher infant mortality rates in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Singh, Pramil N; Eng, Carlin; Yel, Daravuth; Kheam, They; Job, Jayakaran S; Kanal, Koum

    2013-09-01

    In the Western Pacific Region, rural women use loose tobacco in betel quid chewing and pipe smoking. We examined the relation between maternal use of tobacco and infant mortality (IM) in a national sample of 24 296 birth outcomes in adult women (n = 6013) in Cambodia. We found that (1) age-adjusted odds of IM were higher for maternal use of any tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27-2.26); (2) age-adjusted odds of IM were higher for cigarette use (OR = 2.54; 95% CI = 1.54- 4.1), use of pipes (OR = 3.09; [95% CI = 1.86-5.11]), and betel quid chewing (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.10-2.17); and (3) these associations remained after multivariable adjustment for environmental tobacco smoke, malnutrition, ethnicity, religion, marital status, education, income, occupation, and urban/rural dwelling. In addition to finding the established association with cigarettes, we also found that maternal use of smokeless tobacco and pipes was associated with higher rates of infant death in Cambodia.

  6. Predicted Rupture Force of a Single Molecular Bond Becomes Rate Independent at Ultralow Loading Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dechang; Ji, Baohua

    2014-02-01

    We present for the first time a theoretical model of studying the saturation of the rupture force of a single molecular bond that causes the rupture force to be rate independent under an ultralow loading rate. This saturation will obviously bring challenges to understanding the rupture behavior of the molecular bond using conventional methods. This intriguing feature implies that the molecular bond has a nonzero strength at a vanishing loading rate. We find that the saturation behavior is caused by bond rebinding when the loading rate is lower than a limiting value depending on the loading stiffness.

  7. Individuals with higher metabolic rates have lower levels of reactive oxygen species in vivo

    PubMed Central

    Salin, Karine; Auer, Sonya K.; Rudolf, Agata M.; Anderson, Graeme J.; Cairns, Andrew G.; Mullen, William; Hartley, Richard C.; Selman, Colin; Metcalfe, Neil B.

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing interest in the effect of energy metabolism on oxidative stress, but much ambiguity over the relationship between the rate of oxygen consumption and the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS). Production of ROS (such as hydrogen peroxide, H2O2) in the mitochondria is primarily inferred indirectly from measurements in vitro, which may not reflect actual ROS production in living animals. Here, we measured in vivo H2O2 content using the recently developed MitoB probe that becomes concentrated in the mitochondria of living organisms, where it is converted by H2O2 into an alternative form termed MitoP; the ratio of MitoP/MitoB indicates the level of mitochondrial H2O2 in vivo. Using the brown trout Salmo trutta, we tested whether this measurement of in vivo H2O2 content over a 24 h-period was related to interindividual variation in standard metabolic rate (SMR). We showed that the H2O2 content varied up to 26-fold among fish of the same age and under identical environmental conditions and nutritional states. Interindividual variation in H2O2 content was unrelated to mitochondrial density but was significantly associated with SMR: fish with a higher mass-independent SMR had a lower level of H2O2. The mechanism underlying this observed relationship between SMR and in vivo H2O2 content requires further investigation, but may implicate mitochondrial uncoupling which can simultaneously increase SMR but reduce ROS production. To our knowledge, this is the first study in living organisms to show that individuals with higher oxygen consumption rates can actually have lower levels of H2O2. PMID:26382073

  8. Predicting fruit fly's sensing rate with insect flight simulations.

    PubMed

    Chang, Song; Wang, Z Jane

    2014-08-01

    Without sensory feedback, flies cannot fly. Exactly how various feedback controls work in insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure to stabilize their flight? How often and how fast must insects adjust their wings to remain stable? To gain insights into algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we develop a simulation tool to study free flight. To stabilize flight, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds on both the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting our findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we conjecture that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing beat to stabilize their flight. We further propose a candidate for such a control involving the fly's haltere and first basalar motor neuron. Although we focus on fruit flies as a case study, the framework for our simulation and discrete control algorithms is applicable to studies of both natural and man-made fliers.

  9. Resting high frequency heart rate variability selectively predicts cooperative behavior.

    PubMed

    Beffara, Brice; Bret, Amélie G; Vermeulen, Nicolas; Mermillod, Martial

    2016-10-01

    This study explores whether the vagal connection between the heart and the brain is involved in prosocial behaviors. The Polyvagal Theory postulates that vagal activity underlies prosocial tendencies. Even if several results suggest that vagal activity is associated with prosocial behaviors, none of them used behavioral measures of prosociality to establish this relationship. We recorded the resting state vagal activity (reflected by High Frequency Heart Rate Variability, HF-HRV) of 48 (42 suitale for analysis) healthy human adults and measured their level of cooperation during a hawk-dove game. We also manipulated the consequence of mutual defection in the hawk-dove game (severe vs. moderate). Results show that HF-HRV is positively and linearly related to cooperation level, but only when the consequence of mutual defection is severe (compared to moderate). This supports that i) prosocial behaviors are likely to be underpinned by vagal functioning ii) physiological disposition to cooperate interacts with environmental context. We discuss these results within the theoretical framework of the Polyvagal Theory. PMID:27343804

  10. Climatological observations and predicted sublimation rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clow, G.D.; McKay, C.P.; Simmons, G.M.; Wharton, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong fo??hn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter fo??hns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

  11. Resting high frequency heart rate variability selectively predicts cooperative behavior.

    PubMed

    Beffara, Brice; Bret, Amélie G; Vermeulen, Nicolas; Mermillod, Martial

    2016-10-01

    This study explores whether the vagal connection between the heart and the brain is involved in prosocial behaviors. The Polyvagal Theory postulates that vagal activity underlies prosocial tendencies. Even if several results suggest that vagal activity is associated with prosocial behaviors, none of them used behavioral measures of prosociality to establish this relationship. We recorded the resting state vagal activity (reflected by High Frequency Heart Rate Variability, HF-HRV) of 48 (42 suitale for analysis) healthy human adults and measured their level of cooperation during a hawk-dove game. We also manipulated the consequence of mutual defection in the hawk-dove game (severe vs. moderate). Results show that HF-HRV is positively and linearly related to cooperation level, but only when the consequence of mutual defection is severe (compared to moderate). This supports that i) prosocial behaviors are likely to be underpinned by vagal functioning ii) physiological disposition to cooperate interacts with environmental context. We discuss these results within the theoretical framework of the Polyvagal Theory.

  12. Predicting secondary organic aerosol formation rates in southeast Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, Matthew; Allen, David T.

    2005-04-01

    Rates of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, due to the reactions of aromatics and monoterpenes, were estimated for southeast Texas by incorporating a modified version of the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center's chemical mechanism (SAPRC99) into the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx version 3.10). The model included explicit representation of the reactions of five SOA precursors (α-pinene, β-pinene, sabinene, d-limonene, and Δ3-carene). Reactions of each SOA precursor with O3, OH radical, and NO3 radical were included. The model also included separate reactions for low- and high-SOA-yield aromatic groups with the OH radical. SOA yields in the mechanisms were estimated using compound-specific yield information (ΔSOA/ΔHC) derived from smog chamber experiments conducted by J. R. Odum and colleagues and R. J. Griffin and colleagues. The form of the SOA yield model was based on the work of J. R. Odum and colleagues and is a function of existing organic aerosol concentrations. Existing organic aerosol concentrations were estimated on the basis of ambient measurements of total organic carbon in southeast Texas. The reactions of monoterpenes (predominantly α-pinene and β-pinene) with ozone led to the most regional SOA formation, followed by monoterpenes with the nitrate radical. Aromatic-OH reactions led to less regional SOA formation compared to monoterpenes; however, this formation occurs close to the urban and industrial areas of Houston. In contrast, SOA formation due to the reactions of monoterpenes occurred in the forested areas north of the urban area. The results of this study are in qualitative agreement with estimates of SOA formation based on ambient data from the same time period.

  13. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

    2015-10-01

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/ MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  14. Positive attitude toward healthy eating predicts higher diet quality at all cost levels of supermarkets.

    PubMed

    Aggarwal, Anju; Monsivais, Pablo; Cook, Andrea J; Drewnowski, Adam

    2014-02-01

    Shopping at low-cost supermarkets has been associated with higher obesity rates. This study examined whether attitudes toward healthy eating are independently associated with diet quality among shoppers at low-cost, medium-cost, and high-cost supermarkets. Data on socioeconomic status (SES), attitudes toward healthy eating, and supermarket choice were collected using a telephone survey of a representative sample of adult residents of King County, WA. Dietary intake data were based on a food frequency questionnaire. Thirteen supermarket chains were stratified into three categories: low, medium, and high cost, based on a market basket of 100 commonly eaten foods. Diet-quality measures were energy density, mean adequacy ratio, and total servings of fruits and vegetables. The analytical sample consisted of 963 adults. Multivariable regressions with robust standard error examined relations between diet quality, supermarket type, attitudes, and SES. Shopping at higher-cost supermarkets was associated with higher-quality diets. These associations persisted after adjusting for SES, but were eliminated after taking attitudinal measures into account. Supermarket shoppers with positive attitudes toward healthy eating had equally higher-quality diets, even if they shopped at low-, medium-, or high-cost supermarkets, independent of SES and other covariates. These findings imply that shopping at low-cost supermarkets does not prevent consumers from having high-quality diets, as long as they attach importance to good nutrition. Promoting nutrition-education strategies among supermarkets, particularly those catering to low-income groups, can help to improve diet quality.

  15. Positive Attitude toward Healthy Eating Predicts Higher Diet Quality at All Cost Levels of Supermarkets☆

    PubMed Central

    Aggarwal, Anju; Monsivais, Pablo; Cook, Andrea J.; Drewnowski, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Shopping at low-cost supermarkets has been associated with higher obesity rates. This study examined whether attitudes toward healthy eating are independently associated with diet quality among shoppers at low-cost, medium-cost, and high-cost supermarkets. Data on socioeconomic status (SES), attitudes toward healthy eating, and supermarket choice were collected using a telephone survey of a representative sample of adult residents of King County, WA. Dietary intake data were based on a food frequency questionnaire. Thirteen supermarket chains were stratified into three categories: low, medium, and high cost, based on a market basket of 100 commonly eaten foods. Diet-quality measures were energy density, mean adequacy ratio, and total servings of fruits and vegetables. The analytical sample consisted of 963 adults. Multivariable regressions with robust standard error examined relations between diet quality, supermarket type, attitudes, and SES. Shopping at higher-cost supermarkets was associated with higher-quality diets. These associations persisted after adjusting for SES, but were eliminated after taking attitudinal measures into account. Supermarket shoppers with positive attitudes toward healthy eating had equally higher-quality diets, even if they shopped at low-, medium-, or high-cost supermarkets, independent of SES and other covariates. These findings imply that shopping at low-cost supermarkets does not prevent consumers from having high-quality diets, as long as they attach importance to good nutrition. Promoting nutrition-education strategies among supermarkets, particularly those catering to low-income groups, can help to improve diet quality. PMID:23916974

  16. Prediction of Growth Rate at Different Light Levels from Measured Photosynthesis and Respiration Rates

    PubMed Central

    McCree, K. J.; Troughton, J. H.

    1966-01-01

    Light integrators with a linear response are not suitable for measuring the light climates of plants because plants are not linear integrators. It should be possible to make a quantitative allowance for this nonlinearity by using the CO2 uptake curve of the plant. To test this, we have subjected white clover plants to different levels of constant light, comparing the rate of increase of total dry matter with the net rate of uptake of CO2 per day. Temperature, humidity, daylength and nutrient supply were kept constant. The growth rate calculated from CO2 uptake agreed well with the observed rate over the light levels tested (3.7-88 w·m−2, 0.4-0.7 micron: 1 w·m−2 = 103 erg · sec−1 cm−2). All plants put on weight over the few days of the experiment, even those placed at light levels below their compensation point. The plants adapted their respiration rates to be a constant proportion of their growth rates. Most of the adaptation occurred within 24 hours of the light change. The adaptation of respiration has implications for models of light/growth relations in plant communities, almost all of which assume that respiration is proportional to leaf area and independent of growth rate or light level. The only model which does not is that of de Wit, and this gave good agreement with our results. PMID:16656288

  17. Signal identification for rare and weak features: higher criticism or false discovery rates?

    PubMed

    Klaus, Bernd; Strimmer, Korbinian

    2013-01-01

    Signal identification in large-dimensional settings is a challenging problem in biostatistics. Recently, the method of higher criticism (HC) was shown to be an effective means for determining appropriate decision thresholds. Here, we study HC from a false discovery rate (FDR) perspective. We show that the HC threshold may be viewed as an approximation to a natural class boundary (CB) in two-class discriminant analysis which in turn is expressible as the FDR threshold. We demonstrate that in a rare-weak setting in the region of the phase space where signal identification is possible, both thresholds are practicably indistinguishable, and thus HC thresholding is identical to using a simple local FDR cutoff. The relationship of the HC and CB thresholds and their properties are investigated both analytically and by simulations, and are further compared by the application to four cancer gene expression data sets.

  18. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations.

    PubMed

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests.

  19. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations.

    PubMed

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  20. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations

    PubMed Central

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F.; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  1. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production in mono- Z searches at the LHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neubert, Matthias; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Cen

    2016-02-01

    We present theoretical predictions for mono- Z production in the search for dark matter in Run-II at the LHC, including next-to-leading order QCD corrections and parton-shower effects. We consider generic simplified models with vector and scalar s-channel mediators. The calculation is performed by implementing the simplified models in the F eynR ules/M adG raph5_ aMC@NLO framework, which allows us to include higher-order QCD corrections and parton-shower effects in an automated way. We find that these corrections are sizeable and help to reduce the theoretical uncertainties. We also investigate the discovery potential in several benchmark scenarios in the 13 TeV run at the LHC.

  2. Higher order QCD predictions for associated Higgs production with anomalous couplings to gauge bosons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimasu, Ken; Sanz, Verónica; Williams, Ciaran

    2016-08-01

    We present predictions for the associated production of a Higgs boson at NLO+PS accuracy, including the effect of anomalous interactions between the Higgs and gauge bosons. We present our results in different frameworks, one in which the interaction vertex between the Higgs boson and Standard Model W and Z bosons is parameterized in terms of general Lorentz structures, and one in which Electroweak symmetry breaking is manifestly linear and the resulting operators arise through a six-dimensional effective field theory framework. We present analytic calculations of the Standard Model and Beyond the Standard Model contributions, and discuss the phenomenological impact of the higher order pieces. Our results are implemented in the NLO Monte Carlo program MCFM, and interfaced to shower Monte Carlos through the Powheg box framework.

  3. Higher-order Lie symmetries in identifiability and predictability analysis of dynamic models.

    PubMed

    Merkt, Benjamin; Timmer, Jens; Kaschek, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    Parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) has manifold applications not only in physics but also in the life sciences. When estimating the ODE parameters from experimentally observed data, the modeler is frequently concerned with the question of parameter identifiability. The source of parameter nonidentifiability is tightly related to Lie group symmetries. In the present work, we establish a direct search algorithm for the determination of admitted Lie group symmetries. We clarify the relationship between admitted symmetries and parameter nonidentifiability. The proposed algorithm is applied to illustrative toy models as well as a data-based ODE model of the NFκB signaling pathway. We find that besides translations and scaling transformations also higher-order transformations play a role. Enabled by the knowledge about the explicit underlying symmetry transformations, we show how models with nonidentifiable parameters can still be employed to make reliable predictions.

  4. Does higher income inequality adversely influence infant mortality rates? Reconciling descriptive patterns and recent research findings.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Erwin, Paul Campbell

    2015-04-01

    As the struggle continues to explain the relatively high rates of infant mortality (IMR) exhibited in the United States, a renewed emphasis is being placed on the role of possible 'contextual' determinants. Cross-sectional and short time-series studies have found that higher income inequality is associated with higher IMR at the state level. Yet, descriptively, the longer-term trends in income inequality and in IMR seem to call such results into question. To assess whether, over the period 1990-2007, state-level income inequality is associated with state-level IMR; to examine whether the overall effect of income inequality on IMR over this period varies by state; to test whether the association between income inequality and IMR varies across this time period. IMR data--number of deaths per 1000 live births in a given state and year--were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Wonder database. Income inequality was measured using the Gini coefficient, which varies from zero (complete equality) to 100 (complete inequality). Covariates included state-level poverty rate, median income, and proportion of high school graduates. Fixed and random effects regressions were conducted to test hypotheses. Fixed effects models suggested that, overall, during the period 1990-2007, income inequality was inversely associated with IMR (β = -0.07, SE (0.01)). Random effects models suggested that when the relationship was allowed to vary at the state-level, it remained inverse (β = -0.05, SE (0.01)). However, an interaction between income inequality and time suggested that, as time increased, the effect of income inequality had an increasingly positive association with total IMR (β = 0.009, SE (0.002)). The influence of state income inequality on IMR is dependent on time, which may proxy for time-dependent aspects of societal context.

  5. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    PubMed Central

    Botticelli, Andrea; Borro, Marina; Onesti, Concetta Elisa; Strigari, Lidia; Gentile, Giovanna; Cerbelli, Bruna; Romiti, Adriana; Occhipinti, Mario; Sebastiani, Claudia; Lionetto, Luana; Marchetti, Luca; Simmaco, Maurizio; Marchetti, Paolo; Mazzuca, Federica

    2016-01-01

    Background 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR) and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD) on survival. Materials and Methods Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome. Results 133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM) with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts); normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts); ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM) with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts). PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029). A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019). No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed. Conclusion 5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes. PMID:27656891

  6. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    PubMed

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  7. Emergency Medicine Residents Consistently Rate Themselves Higher than Attending Assessments on ACGME Milestones

    PubMed Central

    Goldflam, Katja; Bod, Jessica; Della-Giustina, David; Tsyrulnik, Alina

    2015-01-01

    Introduction In 2012 the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) introduced the Next Accreditation System (NAS), which implemented milestones to assess the competency of residents and fellows. While attending evaluation and feedback is crucial for resident development, perhaps equally important is a resident’s self-assessment. If a resident does not accurately self-assess, clinical and professional progress may be compromised. The objective of our study was to compare emergency medicine (EM) resident milestone evaluation by EM faculty with the same resident’s self-assessment. Methods This is an observational, cross-sectional study that was performed at an academic, four-year EM residency program. Twenty-five randomly chosen residents completed milestone self-assessment using eight ACGME sub-competencies deemed by residency leadership as representative of core EM principles. These residents were also evaluated by 20 faculty members. The milestone levels were evaluated on a nine-point scale. We calculated the average difference between resident self-ratings and faculty ratings, and used sample t-tests to determine statistical significance of the difference in scores. Results Eighteen residents evaluated themselves. Each resident was assessed by an average of 16 attendings (min=10, max=20). Residents gave themselves statistically significant higher milestone ratings than attendings did for each sub-competency examined (p<0.0001). Conclusion Residents over-estimated their abilities in every sub-competency assessed. This underscores the importance of feedback and assessment transparency. More attention needs to be paid to methods by which residency leadership can make residents’ self-perception of their clinical ability more congruent with that of their teachers and evaluators. The major limitation of our study is small sample size of both residents and attendings. PMID:26594293

  8. Reliable ratings or reading tea leaves: can parent, teacher, and clinician behavioral ratings of preschoolers predict ADHD at age six?

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Sarah; Schneiderman, Robyn L; Rajendran, Khushmand; Marks, David J; Halperin, Jeffrey M

    2014-05-01

    To assess the relative ability of parent, teacher, and clinician behavioral ratings of preschoolers to predict ADHD severity and diagnosis at 6 years of age. Hyperactive/inattentive preschoolers [N = 104, 75 % boys, Mean (SD) age = 4.37 (0.47) years] were followed over 2 years (mean = 26.44 months, SD = 5.66). At baseline (BL), parents and teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV and clinicians completed the Behavioral Rating Inventory for Children following a psychological testing session. At age 6, [Mean (SD) age = 6.62 (0.35) years], parents were interviewed with the K-SADS-PL; teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV; and laboratory measures of hyperactivity, impulsivity, and inattention were obtained from children. Hierarchical logistic and linear regression analyses examined which combination of BL ratings best predicted 6-year-old ADHD diagnosis and severity, respectively. At age 6, 56 (53.8 %) children met DSM-IV criteria for a diagnosis of ADHD. BL ratings from parent/teacher/clinician, parent/teacher and parent/clinician combinations significantly predicted children who had an ADHD diagnosis at age 6. Parent and clinician, but not teacher, behavior ratings were significant independent predictors of ADHD diagnosis and severity at 6-years-old. However, only clinician reports of preschoolers' behaviors predicted laboratory measures of over-activity and inattention at follow-up. Cross-situationality is important for a diagnosis of ADHD during the preschool years. Among parents, teachers and clinicians, positive endorsements from all three informants, parent/teacher or parent/clinician appear to have prognostic value. Clinicians' ratings of preschoolers' inattention, impulsivity and hyperactivity are valid sources of information for predicting ADHD diagnosis and severity over time.

  9. Malignancy Rate, Number Needed to Treat, and Positive Predictive Value for Breast MRI.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, John S; Robbins, Patrick A

    2016-09-01

    Breast MRI is being used more frequently for advanced screening for breast cancer. Patients may be at increased risk, or are symptomatic, with nonsuspicious mammograms. There is little data regarding the likelihood of a recommendation for biopsy, or for detecting a malignancy, in this population. We intended to determine the malignancy rate, number needed to treat, and positive predictive value for patients receiving adjunctive MRI at our institution. A retrospective review of all breast MRIs from 2008 to 2010 was done. Patients with any prior diagnosis of breast cancer, or BRCA+ were excluded. There were 324 patients. Most common reasons for ordering the breast MRI included: abnormal test result 130 (44%), palpable mass 74 (23%), family history 58 (18%), breast pain 47 (15%), and nipple discharge 45 (14%). Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System score (BIRADS) was 1 or 2 in 36 per cent, 4 or 5 in 18 per cent, 3 in 26 per cent, 0 in 10 per cent, and not given in 9 per cent. Biopsy was recommended in 77 (24%), with biopsy actually performed in 57 (18%). Of the eight cancers identified, four (1.2%) were ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and four (1.2%) were invasive cancer, yielding a true-positive rate of 2.5 per cent. Number needed to treat was 40. Positive predictive value was 14 per cent with a false-positive rate of 86 per cent. In this group of generally higher risk women, typically prescreened with mammography, 1.2 per cent had an invasive cancer, and another 1.2 per cent had DCIS. Those who undergo biopsy are 6.1 times more likely to have benign pathology. The efficacy of adjunctive breast MRI could be improved through refinements in indication, test interpretation, or alternative screening strategies.

  10. College Going Rates: A Performance Measure in California's Higher Education Accountability Framework. Commission Report 07-04

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Postsecondary Education Commission, 2007

    2007-01-01

    As part of its work in developing an accountability framework for higher education, the Commission conducted an analysis of college-going rates in California. This analysis showed that: (1) California has serious inequities in access to higher education. College-going rates vary greatly depending on students' ethnicity, gender, and the type of…

  11. Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

  12. Student and Teacher Ratings of Instructional Quality: Consistency of Ratings over Time, Agreement, and Predictive Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Göllner, Richard; Werth, Sarah; Voss, Thamar; Schmitz, Bernhard; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that the agreement between teacher and student ratings of instructional quality is, at best, moderate, and the associations between measures of instructional quality and outcomes such as standardized achievement are typically small and somewhat mixed across both perspectives. One explanation for these low-to-moderate…

  13. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    PubMed

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  14. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    PubMed

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  15. Epidural insertion simulator of higher insertion resistance & drop rate after puncture.

    PubMed

    Naemura, K; Sakai, A; Hayashi, T; Saito, H

    2008-01-01

    Accidents such as dural puncture remain one of the problems of epidural anesthesia, and unskilled doctors can repeat such accidents. The purpose of the current research was to provide a new simulator for epidural insertion training. No reference data regarding the resistance force used when inserting a needle into patients have been reported. A comparative study was conducted to aid in the development of a new simulator. Pork loin (n=5) were employed as a substitute for patients. Thickness was set at 2 cm so as to improve the reproducibility. The authors took the conventional simulator apart, and picked a block as an analogue of muscle and ligamentum flavum. A new simulator was made of a melamine foam resin block and a latex rubber sheet. An epidural needle fixed on a motorized stage was inserted at the speed of 2 mm per second. The reaction force was measured while the needle was inserted into each specimen. Waveform of the pork loin exhibited two slopes of different inclines up to peaks and then falls after puncture. The conventional simulator showed a simple increase up to peak and a slow fall after puncture. In contrast, the new simulator showed two slopes up to peak and then a sudden fall after puncture. The insertion resistances were 2.5 N/s for the porcine, 0.8 N/s for the conventional and 2.1 N/s for the new simulator. The drop rates were 5 N/s for the porcine, 0.6 N/s for the conventional and 24 N/s for the new simulator. The higher insertion resistance and drop rate for the new simulator than the conventional simulator will be suitable for epidural insertion training.

  16. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhäuser, R.; Günther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-01

    Next-generation γ beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 1013 γ/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses (˜120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a γ pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 1018 γ/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel γ optics will be applied to monochromatize the γ beam to ultimately ΔE/E˜10-6. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding γ detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr3(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 106-107 γ/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr3 detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  17. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    SciTech Connect

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhaeuser, R.; Guenther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-09

    Next-generation {gamma} beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 10{sup 13}{gamma}/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses ({approx}120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a {gamma} pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 10{sup 18}{gamma}/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel {gamma} optics will be applied to monochromatize the {gamma} beam to ultimately {Delta}E/E{approx}10{sup -6}. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding {gamma} detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr{sub 3}(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7}{gamma}/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr{sub 3} detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  18. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-08-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation.

  19. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-01-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation. PMID:27476717

  20. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-01-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation. PMID:27476717

  1. Prediction of School Mathematical Achievement from Motivation, Self-Concept, Teachers' Ratings and Ability Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cappadona, D. L.; Kerzner-Lipsky, D.

    1979-01-01

    Personality variables and teachers' ratings will explain more than 50 percent of the variance, with the latter being the most significant and economical method for predicting mathematical achievement of seventh graders. (MP)

  2. An Interactive Point Kernel Program For Photon Dose Rate Prediction of Cylindrical Source/Shield Arrangements.

    1990-10-26

    Version 00 The program ZYLIND is an interactive point kernel program for photon dose rate prediction of a homogeneous cylindrical source shielded by cylindrical (radial) or plane (axial) layered shields.

  3. Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate. PMID:26482809

  4. Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate.

  5. Higher rates of internal ovulations occur in broiler breeder hens treated with testosterone.

    PubMed

    Navara, Kristen J; Pinson, Sara E; Chary, Parag; Taube, Patrick C

    2015-06-01

    Maximal profit in both the commercial egg and meat industries requires that the quantity of oviposited eggs closely matches the quantity of large yellow follicles maturing in the ovary. While laying hens are genetically selected for maximal egg production and strategies for management of broiler breeders have been constructed to achieve a similar outcome, a percentage of ovarian follicles that are selected into the ovulatory hierarchy in these hens still never make it to oviposition possibly due to atresia of large yellow follicles or internal ovulation of the oocyte into the peritoneal cavity rather than the oviduct. The causes and mechanisms responsible for these processes remain unclear, however, evidence in wild birds suggests that stressful and/or territorial challenges may stimulate oocyte losses. Since testosterone and corticosterone are central to the responses to territorial intrusions and stress, respectively, and since both large yellow follicles and the oviduct that will engulf them are sensitive to hormonal cues, one or both hormones may play a role in the loss of large yellow follicles via atresia and/or internal ovulation in laying hens. To test this, broiler breeder hens were treated with corticosterone or testosterone 5 h prior to ovulation and observed to see whether these treatments influenced the likelihood that a hen would lay an egg 24 h after the predicted ovulation time. A subset of hens that did not lay an egg were killed and dissected to look for evidence of follicle atresia and internal ovulation. Testosterone treatment resulted in significantly more oocyte losses, and 60% of these occurred due to internal ovulations, as was indicated by the presence of yolk in the peritoneal cavity. Corticosterone did not influence the rate of oocyte losses, follicle atresia, or internal ovulation. These results suggest that testosterone can cause disruptions that ultimately prevent the oviduct from capturing the oocyte after ovulation.

  6. Heating Rate Sensitive Multi-Shape Memory Polypropylene: A Predictive Material.

    PubMed

    Hoeher, Robin; Raidt, Thomas; Katzenberg, Frank; Tiller, Joerg C

    2016-06-01

    Here we report on a novel type of smart material that is capable of specifically responding to the changing rate of an environmental signal. This is shown on the example of lightly cross-linked syndiotactic polypropylene that reacts to a temperature increase by adapting its shape change according to the applied heating rate. In general, a material with such properties can be used to predict a system failure when used in a defined environment and is therefore called "predictive material".

  7. A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moosai, Susan

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

  8. Predicting self-rated mental and physical health: the contributions of subjective socioeconomic status and personal relative deprivation

    PubMed Central

    Callan, Mitchell J.; Kim, Hyunji; Matthews, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD) relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people's perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others) and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints). Across six studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES), with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4–6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability) or response biases between the measures. PMID:26441786

  9. Could sperm aneuploidy rate determination be used as a predictive test before intracytoplasmic sperm injection?

    PubMed

    Petit, François M; Frydman, Nelly; Benkhalifa, Moncef; Le Du, Anne; Aboura, Azzedine; Fanchin, Renato; Frydman, Rene; Tachdjian, Gerard

    2005-01-01

    Chromosome abnormalities in embryos are a major cause of implantation and development failures. Some couples with normal karyotypes have repeated implantation failures after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). In order to value patients at risk for genetic ICSI failures and the validity of sperm aneuploidy analysis, we have studied cytogenetic abnormalities in sperm from ICSI patients. Twenty-nine patients with normal karyotypes were included. Ten patients had at least 4 ICSI treatments without pregnancy (group A). Nine patients had a pregnancy after 1 to 3 ICSI treatments (group B). Ten fertile men with normal semen parameters were studied as controls (group C). Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) was used for sperm nucleus cytogenetic analysis using chromosomes 8, 9, 13, 18, 21, X, and Y specific probes. Aneuploidy for each chromosome and diploidy rates were significantly higher in group A than in group B and in group B than in group C (P < .05). Considering each patient in groups A and B, aneuploidy rate for each chromosome was too variable to be considered as a significant test. We proposed analysis of the total sperm aneuploidy. Chromosomal sperm nuclei profile could be used as a predictive biological test before ICSI in order to improve genetic counseling for oligoasthenoteratozoospermia patients.

  10. Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-05-01

    Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

  11. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    PubMed

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. PMID:26437681

  12. Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, S. A.; Kuczmarski, M.; Veitch, L. C.

    1992-01-01

    Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

  13. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1982-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat "unconventional" aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method was able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  14. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1980-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat 'unconventional' aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method is able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  15. Blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems and some Fujita-type theorems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Hongjing; Xing, Ruixiang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we derive blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems. Our proof is by contradiction and uses a scaling argument. This procedure reduces the problems of blow-up rate to Fujita-type theorems. In addition, we also give some new Fujita-type theorems for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems with the time variable on . These results are not restricted to positive solutions.

  16. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  17. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    PubMed

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E

    2013-01-19

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.

  18. Lower vitamin D levels are associated with higher systemic lupus erythematosus activity, but not predictive of disease flare-up

    PubMed Central

    Schoindre, Yoland; Jallouli, Moez; Tanguy, Marie-Laure; Ghillani, Pascale; Galicier, Lionel; Aumaître, Olivier; Francès, Camille; Le Guern, Véronique; Lioté, Frédéric; Smail, Amar; Limal, Nicolas; Perard, Laurent; Desmurs-Clavel, Hélène; Thi Huong, Du Le; Asli, Bouchra; Kahn, Jean-Emmanuel; Sailler, Laurent; Ackermann, Félix; Papo, Thomas; Sacré, Karim; Fain, Olivier; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Cacoub, Patrice; Leroux, Gaëlle; Cohen-Bittan, Judith; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Lechat, Philippe; Musset, Lucile; Piette, Jean-Charles; Amoura, Zahir; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Growing evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of autoimmune diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Recent studies have found an association between lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and higher SLE activity. We studied the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, and we assessed for the first time the role of vitamin D in predicting SLE flare-ups. Methods Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured in 170 patients with SLE who were prospectively followed up for 6 months (Plaquenil LUpus Systemic study, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00413361). Results The mean SLEDAI score was 2.03±2.43 and 12.3% patients had active disease (SLEDAI ≥6). The mean 25(OH)D level was 20.6±9.8 ng/mL. Deficiency (25(OH)D <10 ng/mL) was observed in 27 (15.9%), insufficiency (10≤25(OH)D<30) in 112 (65.9%) and optimal vitamin D status (25(OH)D≥30) in 31 (18.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female gender (p=0.018), absence of defined antiphospholipid syndrome (p=0.002) and higher creatinine clearance (p=0.004) were predictive of lower 25(OH)D levels. In multivariate analysis, lower 25(OH)D levels were associated with high SLE activity (p=0.02). Relapse-free survival rate was not statistically different according to the vitamin D status during the 6-month follow-up (p=0.22). Conclusions We found a low vitamin D status in the majority of patients with SLE, and a modest association between lower 25(OH)D levels and high disease activity. There was no association between baseline 25(OH)D levels and relapse-free survival rate. PMID:25379192

  19. Do Astronauts Havbe a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions Than a Cohort of Working Professionals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Young, M.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Tarver, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated [1], but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  20. Do Astronauts have a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions than a Cohort of Working Professionals?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, Mitzi S.; Murray, Jocelyn D.; Young, Millenia; Wear, Mary L.; Tarver, W. J.; Van Baalen, Mary

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. NASA has implemented several occupational health initiatives during the past 20 years to decrease the number and severity of injuries, but the individual success rate is unknown. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated, but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. The purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  1. Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

    2011-01-01

    A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed measures of abstract…

  2. Prediction and control as determinants of behavioural uncertainty: effects on task performance and heart rate reactivity.

    PubMed

    Baker, S R; Stephenson, D

    2000-01-01

    Control or control-belief is often viewed as being directly instrumental in facilitating coping mechanisms in aversive situations, and yet the empirical evidence for the beneficial effects of control is inconclusive. In this study we investigated the role of predictability in determining the effects of perceived control during an aversive reaction time task. Fifty-six subjects were allocated to one of four groups; predictable-control, predictable-no control, unpredictable-control, unpredictable-no control. In the predictable conditions, subjects could temporally predict the occurrence of an aversive noise. In the perceived control conditions, duration of the aversive tone was contingent on subject's performance. All subjects were matched in terms of the nature of the task and in the number and time of receipt of both the warning signal and noise. Heart rate reactivity and two performance parameters were measured, reaction time and performance increase. Both predictability and control-belief led to a reduction in heart rate reactivity, although they appeared to function independently and at different points in the sequence of events. That is, predictability or perceived control was sufficient to mitigate the effects of an aversive situation. Neither perception of control or predictability led to better task performance. These results are discussed in terms of behavioural uncertainty explanations.

  3. Factors Affecting Student Loan Default Rates: Nevada System of Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kypuros, Christopher Anthony

    2009-01-01

    Nevada's rate of default on college loans is among the highest in the nation. At the time of this study, there were no research studies on defaulters in the state of Nevada. The present study was designed for initial exploration regarding the relationship between various kinds of student factors and default rates from institutions at the Nevada…

  4. Emotionally excited eyeblink-rate variability predicts an experience of transportation into the narrative world

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Ryota; Hino, Kojun; Shimazu, Makoto; Liang, Yingzong; Okada, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 years, SD = 13.18 years, range 18–63 years) were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1) in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2) in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor and Purpura, 1997). The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed SD) of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members. PMID:26029123

  5. Development of a group contribution method to predict aqueous phase hydroxyl radical (HO*) reaction rate constants.

    PubMed

    Minakata, Daisuke; Li, Ke; Westerhoff, Paul; Crittenden, John

    2009-08-15

    The hydroxyl radical (HO*) is a strong oxidant that reacts with electron-rich sites of organic compounds and initiates complex chain mechanisms. In order to help understand the reaction mechanisms, a rule-based model was previously developed to predict the reaction pathways. For a kinetic model, there is a need to develop a rate constant estimator that predicts the rate constants for a variety of organic compounds. In this study, a group contribution method (GCM) is developed to predict the aqueous phase HO* rate constants for the following reaction mechanisms: (1) H-atom abstraction, (2) HO* addition to alkenes, (3) HO* addition to aromatic compounds, and (4) HO* interaction with sulfur (S)-, nitrogen (N)-, or phosphorus (P)-atom-containing compounds. The GCM hypothesizes that an observed experimental rate constant for a given organic compound is the combined rate of all elementary reactions involving HO*, which can be estimated using the Arrhenius activation energy, E(a), and temperature. Each E(a) for those elementary reactions can be comprised of two parts: (1) a base part that includes a reactive bond in each reaction mechanism and (2) contributions from its neighboring functional groups. The GCM includes 66 group rate constants and 80 group contribution factors, which characterize each HO* reaction mechanism with steric effects of the chemical structure groups and impacts of the neighboring functional groups, respectively. Literature-reported experimental HO* rate constants for 310 and 124 compounds were used for calibration and prediction, respectively. The genetic algorithms were used to determine the group rate constants and group contribution factors. The group contribution factors for H-atom abstraction and HO* addition to the aromatic compounds were found to linearly correlate with the Taft constants, sigma*, and electrophilic substituent parameters, sigma+, respectively. The best calibrations for 83% (257 rate constants) and predictions for 62% (77

  6. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading.

    PubMed

    Wlotko, Edward W; Federmeier, Kara D

    2015-07-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items ('They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.'). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 msec or 250 msec that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 msec SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 msec SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 msec SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 msec SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 msec SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 msec SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment.

  7. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading.

    PubMed

    Wlotko, Edward W; Federmeier, Kara D

    2015-07-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items ('They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.'). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 msec or 250 msec that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 msec SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 msec SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 msec SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 msec SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 msec SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 msec SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  8. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading

    PubMed Central

    Wlotko, Edward W.; Federmeier, Kara D.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items (‘They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.’). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 ms or 250 ms that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 ms SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs. TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 ms SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 ms SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 ms SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 ms SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 ms SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  9. Quasi-static magnetic measurements to predict specific absorption rates in magnetic fluid hyperthermia experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coral, D. F.; Mendoza Zélis, P.; de Sousa, M. E.; Muraca, D.; Lassalle, V.; Nicolás, P.; Ferreira, M. L.; Fernández van Raap, M. B.

    2014-01-01

    In this work, the issue on whether dynamic magnetic properties of polydispersed magnetic colloids modeled using physical magnitudes derived from quasi-static magnetic measurement can be extrapolated to analyze specific absorption rate data acquired at high amplitudes and frequencies of excitation fields is addressed. To this end, we have analyzed two colloids of magnetite nanoparticles coated with oleic acid and chitosan in water displaying, under a radiofrequency field, high and low specific heat power release. Both colloids are alike in terms of liquid carrier, surfactant and magnetic phase composition but differ on the nanoparticle structuring. The colloid displaying low specific dissipation consists of spaced magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 4.8 nm inside a large chitosan particle of 52.5 nm. The one displaying high specific dissipation consists of clusters of magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 9.7 nm inside a chitosan particle of 48.6 nm. The experimental evaluation of Néel and Brown relaxation times (˜10-10 s and 10-4 s, respectively) indicate that the nanoparticles in both colloids magnetically relax by Néel mechanism. The isothermal magnetization curves analysis for this mechanism show that the magnetic nanoparticles behave in the interacting superparamagnetic regime. The specific absorption rates were determined calorimetrically at 260 kHz and up to 52 kA/m and were well modeled within linear response theory using the anisotropy density energy retrieved from quasi-static magnetic measurement, validating their use to predict heating ability of a given polydispersed particle suspension. Our findings provide new insight in the validity of quasi-static magnetic characterization to analyze the high frequency behavior of polydispersed colloids within the framework of the linear response and Wohlfarth theories and indicate that dipolar interactions play a key role being their strength larger for the colloid displaying higher dissipation, i

  10. Highly variable spread rates in replicated biological invasions: fundamental limits to predictability.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Hastings, Alan

    2009-09-18

    Although mean rates of spread for invasive species have been intensively studied, variance in spread rates has been neglected. Variance in spread rates can be driven exogenously by environmental variability or endogenously by demographic or genetic stochasticity in reproduction, survival, and dispersal. Endogenous variability is likely to be important in spread but has not been studied empirically. We show that endogenously generated variance in spread rates is remarkably high between replicated invasions of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum in laboratory microcosms. The observed variation between replicate invasions cannot be explained by demographic stochasticity alone, which indicates inherent limitations to predictability in even the simplest ecological settings.

  11. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  12. Are Interpersonal Violence Rates Higher Among Young Women in College Compared With Those Never Attending College?

    PubMed

    Coker, Ann L; Follingstad, Diane R; Bush, Heather M; Fisher, Bonnie S

    2016-05-01

    Estimates of sexual violence and partner violence rates among young women are generated primarily from college samples. Few studies have data to compare rates among similar-aged women attending college with those who never attended college. This study aims to estimate rates of partner violence by type (sexual, physical, and psychological) and severity (mild, moderate, severe), sexual harassment, and knowing or suspecting that someone put a drug in a drink (drugged drink) among a national sample of 959 young women aged 18 to 24 in an intimate relationship in the past 12 months who were either currently in college (college;n= 272) or never attended college (non-college;n= 687). After adjusting for demographic differences between these two groups, no significant differences were found in rates of sexual partner violence (28.4% non-college, 23.5% college), physical partner violence (27.9% non-college, 26.3% college), psychological partner violence (Mscore: 6.10 non-college, 5.59 college), sexual harassment (15.5% non-college, 14.1% college), or drugged drink (8.5% non-college, 7.8% college). Finding high rates of interpersonal violence among young women who are and are not currently attending college indicates the need to target all young adults with violence prevention interventions in educational, workplace, and other community-based settings.

  13. Predicting Public Confidence in Higher Education Institutions: An Analysis of Social Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates that there are two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). This aim has been reified consistently for nearly a century. By 2002, the pursuit of higher education had reached record levels. However, more recently, public confidence…

  14. Open-Source Learning Management Systems: A Predictive Model for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Rooij, S. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of pedagogical, technical, and institutional profile factors in an institution of higher education's decision to select an open-source learning management system (LMS). Drawing on the results of previous research that measured patterns of deployment of open-source software (OSS) in US higher education and…

  15. Simple formulas for strain-energy release rates with higher order and singular finite elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raju, I. S.

    1986-01-01

    A general finite element procedure for obtaining strain-energy release rates for crack growth in isotropic materials is presented. The procedure is applicable to two-dimensional finite element analyses and uses the virtual crack-closure method. The procedure was applied to non-singular 4-noded (linear), 8-noded (parabolic), and 12-noded (cubic) elements and to quarter-point and cubic singularity elements. Simple formulas for strain-energy release rates were obtained with this procedure for both non-singular and singularity elements. The formulas were evaluated by applying them to two mode I and two mixed mode problems. Comparisons with results from the literature for these problems showed that the formulas give accurate strain-energy release rates.

  16. Calculation of strain-energy release rates with higher order and singular finite elements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raju, I. S.

    1987-01-01

    A general finite element procedure for obtaining strain-energy release rates for crack growth in isotropic materials is presented. The procedure is applicable to two-dimensional finite element analyses and uses the virtual crack-closure method. The procedure was applied to nonsingular 4-noded (linear), 8-noded (parabolic), and 12-noded (cubic) elements and to quarter-point and cubic singularity elements. Simple formulas for strain-energy release rates were obtained with this procedure for both nonsingular and singularity elements. The formulas were evaluated by applying them to two mode I and two mixed mode problems. Comparisons with results from the literature for these problems showed that the formulas give accurate strain-energy release rates.

  17. Jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: perturbative higher order predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinzierl, Stefan

    2011-02-01

    This article gives results on several jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: Considered are the exclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Geneva, Jade-E0 and Cambridge, which are typically used in electron-positron annihilation. In addition also inclusive jet algorithms are studied. Results are provided for the inclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Aachen and anti- k t , as well as the infrared-safe cone algorithm SISCone. The results are obtained in perturbative QCD and are N3LO for the two-jet rates, NNLO for the three-jet rates, NLO for the four-jet rates and LO for the five-jet rates.

  18. Examining Life Goals and School Attendance Rates of Afghan Students Receiving Higher Education in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bek, Hafiz

    2016-01-01

    This research is a descriptive study carried out to examine the relations between life goals and school attendance levels among Afghan students receiving higher education in Turkey. In total there were 198 Afghan students that participated in the study. Among which 159 were male and 39 female. All of these students were studying in 16 Turkish…

  19. A meta-analysis of passage rate estimated by rumen evacuation with cattle and evaluation of passage rate prediction models.

    PubMed

    Krizsan, S J; Ahvenjärvi, S; Huhtanen, P

    2010-12-01

    A meta-analysis of studies using the flux/compartmental pool method with indigestible neutral detergent fiber (iNDF) as internal marker was conducted to study the effect of extrinsic characteristics and forage type on particle passage rate (k(p)) in cattle. Further, the k(p) prediction equations in the National Research Council (NRC) and the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) were evaluated. Data comprised 172 treatment means from 49 studies conducted in Europe and the United States. In total, 145 diets were fed to dairy cows and 27 to growing cattle. A prerequisite for inclusion of an experiment was that dry matter intake, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), proportion of concentrate in the diet, body weight, and diet chemical composition were determined or could be estimated. Mixed model regression analysis including a random study effect was used to generate prediction equations of k(p) and to investigate the relationships between NRC and CNCPS predictions and observed k(p) of iNDF. Prediction equations were evaluated by regressing residual values on the predicted values. The best-fit model when forage type was not included was k(p) (%/h) = 1.19+0.0879 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight)+0.792 × proportion of concentrate NDF of total NDF+1.21 × diet iNDF:NDF ratio (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.23%/h). The best general equation accounting for an effect of forage type was as follows: k(p) (%/h) = F+1.54+0.0866 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight) (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.21%/h), where F is the forage adjustment factor of the intercept. The value of F for grass silage, fresh grass, mixes of alfalfa and corn silage, and dry or ensiled alfalfa as sole forage component were 0.00, -0.91, +0.83, and +0.24, respectively. Relationships between predicted and observed k(p) were y = 0.53(± 0.187)+0.41( ± 0.0373) × predicted k(p) and y = 0.58(± 0.162)+0.46(± 0.0377) × predicted k(p) for the NRC and CNCPS models, respectively

  20. A meta-analysis of passage rate estimated by rumen evacuation with cattle and evaluation of passage rate prediction models.

    PubMed

    Krizsan, S J; Ahvenjärvi, S; Huhtanen, P

    2010-12-01

    A meta-analysis of studies using the flux/compartmental pool method with indigestible neutral detergent fiber (iNDF) as internal marker was conducted to study the effect of extrinsic characteristics and forage type on particle passage rate (k(p)) in cattle. Further, the k(p) prediction equations in the National Research Council (NRC) and the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS) were evaluated. Data comprised 172 treatment means from 49 studies conducted in Europe and the United States. In total, 145 diets were fed to dairy cows and 27 to growing cattle. A prerequisite for inclusion of an experiment was that dry matter intake, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), proportion of concentrate in the diet, body weight, and diet chemical composition were determined or could be estimated. Mixed model regression analysis including a random study effect was used to generate prediction equations of k(p) and to investigate the relationships between NRC and CNCPS predictions and observed k(p) of iNDF. Prediction equations were evaluated by regressing residual values on the predicted values. The best-fit model when forage type was not included was k(p) (%/h) = 1.19+0.0879 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight)+0.792 × proportion of concentrate NDF of total NDF+1.21 × diet iNDF:NDF ratio (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.23%/h). The best general equation accounting for an effect of forage type was as follows: k(p) (%/h) = F+1.54+0.0866 × NDF intake (g/kg of body weight) (adjusted residual mean square error = 0.21%/h), where F is the forage adjustment factor of the intercept. The value of F for grass silage, fresh grass, mixes of alfalfa and corn silage, and dry or ensiled alfalfa as sole forage component were 0.00, -0.91, +0.83, and +0.24, respectively. Relationships between predicted and observed k(p) were y = 0.53(± 0.187)+0.41( ± 0.0373) × predicted k(p) and y = 0.58(± 0.162)+0.46(± 0.0377) × predicted k(p) for the NRC and CNCPS models, respectively

  1. Defining the players in higher-order networks: predictive modeling for reverse engineering functional influence networks.

    PubMed

    McDermott, Jason E; Archuleta, Michelle; Stevens, Susan L; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P; Sanfilippo, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Determining biological network dependencies that can help predict the behavior of a system given prior observations from high-throughput data is a very valuable but difficult task, especially in the light of the ever-increasing volume of experimental data. Such an endeavor can be greatly enhanced by considering regulatory influences on co-expressed groups of genes representing functional modules, thus constraining the number of parameters in the system. This allows development of network models that are predictive of system dynamics. We first develop a predictive network model of the transcriptomics of whole blood from a mouse model of neuroprotection in ischemic stroke, and show that it can accurately predict system behavior under novel conditions. We then use a network topology approach to expand the set of regulators considered and show that addition of topological bottlenecks improves the performance of the predictive model. Finally, we explore how improvements in definition of functional modules may be achieved through an integration of inferred network relationships and functional relationships defined using Gene Ontology similarity. We show that appropriate integration of these two types of relationships can result in models with improved performance.

  2. The Association of Higher Plasma Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor Levels with Lower Bone Mineral Density and Higher Bone Turnover Rate in Postmenopausal Women

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Chaeho; Lee, Seung Hun; Koh, Jung-Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite evidence from animal and clinical studies showing the detrimental effects of macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) on bone metabolism, there are no clinical studies relating circulating MIF levels to osteoporosis-related phenotypes. This cross-sectional study investigated the association of plasma MIF with bone mineral density (BMD), bone turnover markers (BTMs), and prevalence of osteoporosis in postmenopausal Korean women. Methods A total of 246 women not taking any medications or diagnosed with any diseases that could affect bone metabolism were enrolled. BMD values at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total femur, and blood levels of MIF and BTMs were measured in all subjects. Osteoporosis was defined by World Health Organization criteria. Results Before and after adjustment for confounding variables, higher MIF levels were significantly associated with lower BMD values at all measured sites and higher levels of all BTMs. All BMD values and BTMs significantly changed in a dose-dependent fashion across increasing MIF quartile. When participants were divided into two groups according to osteoporosis status, postmenopausal women with osteoporosis demonstrated 24.2% higher plasma MIF levels than those without osteoporosis (P=0.041). The odds ratio per each standard deviation increment of MIF levels for prevalent osteoporosis was 1.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.73). Conclusion This study provides the first epidemiological evidence that higher plasma MIF may be associated with higher risk of osteoporosis resulting from lower bone mass and higher bone turnover rate, and thus it could be a potential biomarker of poor bone health outcomes in postmenopausal women. PMID:27469066

  3. Higher rate alternative non-drug reinforcement produces faster suppression of cocaine seeking but more resurgence when removed.

    PubMed

    Craig, Andrew R; Nall, Rusty W; Madden, Gregory J; Shahan, Timothy A

    2016-06-01

    Relapse following removal of an alternative source of reinforcement introduced during extinction of a target behavior is called resurgence. This form of relapse may be related to relapse of drug taking following loss of alternative non-drug reinforcement in human populations. Laboratory investigations of factors mediating resurgence with food-maintained behavior suggest higher rates of alternative reinforcement produce faster suppression of target behavior but paradoxically generate more relapse when alternative reinforcement is discontinued. At present, it is unknown if a similar effect occurs when target behavior is maintained by drug reinforcement and the alternative is a non-drug reinforcer. In the present experiment three groups of rats were trained to lever press for infusions of cocaine during baseline. Next, during treatment, cocaine reinforcement was suspended and an alternative response was reinforced with either high-rate, low-rate, or no alternative food reinforcement. Finally, all reinforcement was suspended to test for relapse of cocaine seeking. Higher rate alternative reinforcement produced faster elimination of cocaine seeking than lower rates or extinction alone, but when treatment was suspended resurgence of cocaine seeking occurred following only high-rate alternative reinforcement. Thus, although higher rate alternative reinforcement appears to more effectively suppress drug seeking, should it become unavailable, it can have the unfortunate effect of increasing relapse. PMID:26988268

  4. Higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt correlate with younger age but not orthostatic symptoms.

    PubMed

    Ives, Colleen T; Kimpinski, Kurt

    2013-08-15

    Reports have shown that younger individuals present with higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt (HUT). However, a correlation between the degree of heart rate increment and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance has not been determined. The objective of this study was to determine whether higher postural heart rate increments during HUT correlate with symptoms of orthostatic intolerance in healthy subjects. Postural heart rate increment on HUT did not differ between men and women (P = 0.48) but did show a significant decrease by age group (P < 0.0001). There was a significant negative correlation between heart rate increment on HUT and age [r = -0.63 (-0.73, -0.51), r(2) = 0.400; P < 0.0001]. There was a significant difference with respect to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance by sex (P = 0.03) but not age (P = 0.58). There was no significant correlation between either symptoms of orthostatic intolerance and age [r = -0.13 (-0.31, 0.06), r(2) = 0.017; P = 0.17] or heart rate increment on HUT and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance [r = 0.15 (-0.04, 0.33), r(2) = 0.022; P = 0.13]. The results demonstrate that higher postural heart rate increments in younger individuals do not result in an increase in orthostatic intolerance. This highlights the potential need for a reevaluation of the diagnostic criteria for postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome in younger individuals.

  5. Update on Graduation Rate Reporting: Issues and Opportunities. Policy Matters: A Higher Education Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Alene

    2009-01-01

    Since the passage of the federal Student Right-to-Know Act of 1990 (SRTK), graduation rates have been a subject of much debate and controversy. Why all the fuss? The simple truth is that graduation from college does matter, and it matters more than ever. From the societal perspective, the United States is falling behind other nations in the…

  6. Community College Responses to Calls for Higher Completion Rates: The Cases of Three Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smock, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to understand how three diverse community colleges are interpreting and acting on federal initiatives to increase completion rates. The study attempted to answer four main research questions: (1) How do a selection of Kansas community colleges, as organizations, interpret the initiative to increase completion…

  7. Forecasting Student Entrants, Flows and Success Rates. Technical Report. Studies in Institutional Management in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Stjepan; And Others

    This document is concerned with an information system to study the internal dynamics of student flows, choice of subjects and success rates, taking into account different regional affiliations and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students. Among the external factors to be considered will be the demographic dimension in terms of changes in the…

  8. Performance Analysis of MIMO-STBC Systems with Higher Coding Rate Using Adaptive Semiblind Channel Estimation Scheme

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ravi

    2014-01-01

    Semiblind channel estimation method provides the best trade-off in terms of bandwidth overhead, computational complexity and latency. The result after using multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems shows higher data rate and longer transmit range without any requirement for additional bandwidth or transmit power. This paper presents the detailed analysis of diversity coding techniques using MIMO antenna systems. Different space time block codes (STBCs) schemes have been explored and analyzed with the proposed higher code rate. STBCs with higher code rates have been simulated for different modulation schemes using MATLAB environment and the simulated results have been compared in the semiblind environment which shows the improvement even in highly correlated antenna arrays and is found very close to the condition when channel state information (CSI) is known to the channel. PMID:24688379

  9. Slow rates of habituation predict greater zBMI gains over 12 months in lean children

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Leonard H.; Robinson, Jodie L.; Roemmich, James N.; Marusewski, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Slow rates of habituation are related to greater energy intake, and cross-sectionally to body weight. The present study is designed to assess whether slow rates of habituation are prospectively related to zBMI change over a 12 month period in 66 lean 8–12 year-old children, and whether the rate of habituation is a stable behavioral phenotype. Results showed slower rates of habituation predicted greater zBMI change, controlling for child sex, age, initial zBMI, dietary awareness and minority status. In addition, the rate of habituation was stable over the year of observation. These data suggest that slow rates of habituation may be a risk factor for weight gain and the development of obesity. Future research is needed to understand the mechanism for this effect, and assess whether the habituation phenotype interacts with other behavioral phenotypes, such as food reinforcement, to influence increases in zBMI. PMID:21741020

  10. Higher Adenoma Detection Rates with Endocuff-Assisted Colonoscopy – A Randomized Controlled Multicenter Trial

    PubMed Central

    Fitzlaff, Rüdiger; Röming, Hermann; Ameis, Detlev; Heinecke, Achim; Kunsch, Steffen; Ellenrieder, Volker; Ströbel, Philipp; Schepke, Michael; Meister, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The Endocuff is a device mounted on the tip of the colonoscope to help flatten the colonic folds during withdrawal. This study aimed to compare the adenoma detection rates between Endocuff-assisted (EC) colonoscopy and standard colonoscopy (SC). Methods This randomized prospective multicenter trial was conducted at four academic endoscopy units in Germany. Participants: 500 patients (235 males, median age 64[IQR 54–73]) for colon adenoma detection purposes were included in the study. All patients were either allocated to EC or SC. The primary outcome measure was the determination of the adenoma detection rates (ADR). Results The ADR significantly increased with the use of the Endocuff compared to standard colonoscopy (35.4%[95% confidence interval{CI} 29–41%] vs. 20.7%[95%CI 15–26%], p<0.0001). Significantly more sessile polyps were detected by EC. Overall procedure time and withdrawal time did not differ. Caecal and ileum intubation rates were similar. No major adverse events occurred in both groups. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95%[CI] 1.01–1.05), male sex (OR 1.74; 95%CI 1.10–2.73), withdrawal time (OR 1.16; 95%CI 1.05–1.30), procedure time (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.04–1.10), colon cleanliness (OR 0.60; 95%CI 0.39–0.94) and use of Endocuff (OR 2.09; 95%CI 1.34–3.27) were independent predictors of adenoma detection rates. Conclusions EC increases the adenoma detection rate by 14.7%(95%CI 6.9–22.5%). EC is safe, effective, easy to handle and might reduce colorectal interval carcinomas. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02034929. PMID:25470133

  11. Calcite precipitation rates in the field: Measurement and prediction for a travertine-depositing stream

    SciTech Connect

    Herman, J.S.; Lorah, M.M. )

    1988-10-01

    Rates of calcite precipitation from a travertine-depositing stream were determined from changes in stream composition between consecutive sampling points and were compared with rates predicted from a laboratory-derived rate law. The agreement in rates was generally within an order of magnitude and routinely within a factor of 3. Least agreement between measured and predicted rates was obtained for sections of flowpath where relatively little change in bulk chemical composition occurred, which were the sections with the greatest mass transfer calculation error, and for the stream segment including a waterfall, which was the section with the greatest error in estimated surface area. Reaction rate obtained from the mass of calcite precipitated onto seed crystals placed in the stream significantly underestimated the mass transfer rate. For the travertine-depositing stream of Warm River Cave and Falling Spring Creek, Virginia, the coupling of equilibrium speciation models with mass balance calculations and simple field measurements allowed successful field-based quantification of reaction rates.

  12. The Relations between Lower and Higher Level Comprehension Skills and Their Role in Prediction of Early Reading Comprehension

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, Macarena; Cain, Kate

    2015-01-01

    This study of 4- to 6-year-olds had 2 aims: first, to determine how lower level comprehension skills (receptive vocabulary and grammar) and verbal memory support early higher level comprehension skills (inference and literal story comprehension), and second, to establish the predictive power of these skills on subsequent reading comprehension.…

  13. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  14. Women With Early Menopause Have Higher Rates of Target Lesion Revascularization After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Zhijian; Liu, Xiaoli; Zhou, Zhiming; Zhao, Yingxin; Shi, Dongmei; Liu, Yuyang; Liang, Jing; Yang, Lixia; Chai, Meng; Zhou, Yujie

    2016-04-01

    Early menopause has been found to be associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to investigate the impact of early menopause on clinical outcomes for women undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We observed female patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing PCI and found that women with early menopause (≤46 years old) were more likely to have CAD risk factors and more severe coronary lesions. During the 18-month follow-up, early menopause was associated with similar risk of death and myocardial infarction but higher risk of target lesion revascularization (TLR; 7.8% vs 5.3%, P = .003) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; 11.3% vs 9.0%, P = .007). After adjustment, early menopause was an independent risk factor for 18-month MACEs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.00) and TLR (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.21-2.13). In conclusion, for women undergoing PCI, early menopause is associated with higher risk of MACE, which is mainly driven by risk of TLR.

  15. Clinical and Radiographic Factors Predicting Hearing Preservation Rates in Large Vestibular Schwannomas.

    PubMed

    Mendelsohn, Daniel; Westerberg, Brian D; Dong, Charles; Akagami, Ryojo

    2016-06-01

    Objectives Postoperative hearing preservation rates for patients with large vestibular schwannomas range from 0 to 43%. The clinical and radiographic factors predicting hearing preservation in smaller vestibular schwannomas are well described; however, their importance in larger tumors is unclear. We investigated factors predicting hearing preservation in large vestibular schwannomas. Design Retrospective review. Setting Quaternary care academic center. Participants A total of 85 patients with unilateral vestibular schwannomas > 3 cm underwent retrosigmoid resections. Main Outcomes Measures Preoperative and postoperative serviceable hearing rates. Methods Clinical and radiographic data including preoperative and postoperative audiograms, preoperative symptoms, magnetic resonance imaging features, and postoperative facial weakness were analyzed. Results Hearing was preserved in 41% of patients (17 of 42) with preoperative serviceable hearing. Hypertension and diabetes increased the likelihood of preoperative hearing loss. Preoperative tinnitus predicted a lower likelihood of hearing preservation. No radiographic factors predicted hearing preservation; however, larger tumor size, smaller fourth ventricular width, and the presence of a cerebrospinal fluid cleft surrounding the tumor predicted postoperative facial weakness. Conclusion Systemic comorbidities may influence hearing loss preoperatively in patients with large vestibular schwannomas. The absence of tinnitus may reflect hearing reserve and propensity for hearing preservation. Preoperative radiographic features did not predict hearing preservation despite some associations with postoperative facial weakness. PMID:27175312

  16. Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

  17. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2015-01-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI. PMID:27231403

  18. Explicit expression to predict the erosive burning rate of solid propellants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, S.

    1986-01-01

    Using the theory of gas dynamics and heat transfer from a turbulent gas flow to the burning surface of propellant along a permeable wall, an explicit expression is derived to predict the burning rate of the solid propellant with crossflow. Results of the calculation have been compared with experimental data and proved to be correct.

  19. Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

  20. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2007-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

  1. Error-rate prediction for programmable circuits: methodology, tools and studied cases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velazco, Raoul

    2013-05-01

    This work presents an approach to predict the error rates due to Single Event Upsets (SEU) occurring in programmable circuits as a consequence of the impact or energetic particles present in the environment the circuits operate. For a chosen application, the error-rate is predicted by combining the results obtained from radiation ground testing and the results of fault injection campaigns performed off-beam during which huge numbers of SEUs are injected during the execution of the studied application. The goal of this strategy is to obtain accurate results about different applications' error rates, without using particle accelerator facilities, thus significantly reducing the cost of the sensitivity evaluation. As a case study, this methodology was applied a complex processor, the Power PC 7448 executing a program issued from a real space application and a crypto-processor application implemented in an SRAM-based FPGA and accepted to be embedded in the payload of a scientific satellite of NASA. The accuracy of predicted error rates was confirmed by comparing, for the same circuit and application, predictions with measures issued from radiation ground testing performed at the cyclotron Cyclone cyclotron of HIF (Heavy Ion Facility) of Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium).

  2. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  3. Predicting Lexical Density Growth Rate in Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoder, Paul J.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this longitudinal correlational study was to test whether an environmental variable and 4 child variables predicted growth rate of number of different nonimitative words used (i.e., lexical density). Method: Thirty-five young (age range = 21-54 months) children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) who were initially…

  4. Can the anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen test improve predictions of fertilizer nitrogen rates in the Cornbelt?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Correctly estimating the amount of mineralizable nitrogen (N) can enhance nitrogen use efficiency. The anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen (PMNAn) test is a tool that may help improve predictions of N uptake, grain yield, and the economical optimum nitrogen rate (EONR) of corn (Zea mays L...

  5. Interlaminar stress and strain energy release rate predictions in composites by singular fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armanios, Erian A.

    A singular fitting method is developed in order to predict the interlaminar stress distribution in a quasi-isotropic double cracked-lap-shear configuration made of graphite/epoxy material. The method is based on an improved finite element scheme using the stress predicted by a constant strain element. The oscillatory component of the stress singularity is investigated, and the order of the singularity is estimated from a logarithmic plot of interlaminar shear stress data. The effect of the mesh size on the stress and displacement distributions is isolated. The strain energy release rate components are predicted based on the singular stress distribution and its associated displacement field. The effect of smearing the material properties on the accuracy of the strain energy release rates and interlaminar stresses is investigated. Results are compared with the finite element crack-closure method. A comparison of the stress-intensity factor with an analytical solution is provided.

  6. Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

    PubMed

    Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. PMID:27164483

  7. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  8. Prediction of swelling of 18Cr10NiTi austenitic steel over a wide range of displacement rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalchenko, A. S.; Bryk, V. V.; Lazarev, N. P.; Neklyudov, I. M.; Voyevodin, V. N.; Garner, F. A.

    2010-04-01

    The internal components of pressurized water reactors of Russian types WWER-440 and WWER-1000 are constructed of annealed 18Cr10NiTi steel, a close analog to AISI 321. Void swelling of the internals is a concern for plant life extension and predictive equations are required to assess the potential of swelling in critical components such as the baffle ring or reflection shield that surrounds the WWER core. The only previously available swelling data for this steel were derived at higher than PWR-relevant displacement rates in the BOR-60 fast reactor. The swelling equation previously developed from these data does not incorporate the effect of displacement rate on swelling. Using heavy-ion irradiation at very high dpa rates (10 -2 and 10 -3 dpa s -1) and doses (5-100 dpa) and coupling the results to available neutron data a swelling equation has been developed that specifically incorporates the effect of dpa rate on void swelling. Experimental results allow description of the swelling peak, the incubation period and the steady-state swelling rate over a wide range of irradiation temperature. For the first time it appears possible to describe both ion and neutron data on this steel within the framework of a single empirical model. Swelling maps constructed from this model permit forecasting of the behavior of the steel in WWERs under the required irradiation conditions, not only at already attained exposure doses, but more importantly to higher dose levels that will be reached following plant life extension.

  9. Relative rate and location of intra-host HIV evolution to evade cellular immunity are predictable

    PubMed Central

    Barton, John P.; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Butler, Thomas C.; Walker, Bruce D.; McMichael, Andrew J.; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves within infected persons to escape being destroyed by the host immune system, thereby preventing effective immune control of infection. Here, we combine methods from evolutionary dynamics and statistical physics to simulate in vivo HIV sequence evolution, predicting the relative rate of escape and the location of escape mutations in response to T-cell-mediated immune pressure in a cohort of 17 persons with acute HIV infection. Predicted and clinically observed times to escape immune responses agree well, and we show that the mutational pathways to escape depend on the viral sequence background due to epistatic interactions. The ability to predict escape pathways and the duration over which control is maintained by specific immune responses open the door to rational design of immunotherapeutic strategies that might enable long-term control of HIV infection. Our approach enables intra-host evolution of a human pathogen to be predicted in a probabilistic framework. PMID:27212475

  10. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

    PubMed

    Fagan, William F; Pearson, Yanthe E; Larsen, Elise A; Lynch, Heather J; Turner, Jessica B; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E

    2013-07-22

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

  11. Prediction of FV520B Steel Flow Stresses at High Temperature and Strain Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Xiaolan; Zhao, Shengdun; Zhang, Chenyang; Fan, Shuqin; Xu, Fan

    2015-10-01

    In order to develop reliable constitutive equations for the simulation, the hot deformation behavior of FV520B steel was investigated through isothermal compression tests in a wide range of temperatures from 900 °C to 1100 °C at an interval of 50 °C and strain rate from 0.01 to 10 s-1 on Gleeble-1500D simulator. The effects of temperature and strain rate on deformation behavior were represented by Zener-Holloman parameter in an exponent-type equation of Arrhenius constitutive. The influence of strain was incorporated in the constitutive analysis by material constants expressed as a polynomial function of strain. The constitutive equation (considering the compensation of strain) could precisely predict the flow stress only at strain rate 0.01 s-1 except at the temperatures of 900 °C and 1000 °C, whereas the flow stress predicted by a modified equation (incorporating both the strain and strain rate) demonstrated a well agreement with the experimental data throughout the entire range of temperatures and strain rates. Correlation coefficient (R) of 0.988 and average absolute relative error (AARE) of 5.7% verified the validity of developed equation from statistical analysis, which further confirmed that the modified constitutive equation could accurately predict the flow stress of FV520B steel.

  12. DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-01-20

    A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks that are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a

  13. Higher Executive Control and Visual Memory Performance Predict Treatment Completion in Borderline Personality Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Fertuck, Eric A.; Keilp, John; Song, Inkyung; Morris, Melissa C.; Wilson, Scott T.; Brodsky, Beth S.; Stanley, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    Background Non-completion of a prescribed course of treatment occurs in 20–60% of individuals diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD). While symptom severity, personality traits and environmental factors have been implicated as predictors of treatment non-completion (TNC), there have been no studies of neuropsychological predictors in this population. Methods From a randomized controlled trial, a subsample of 31, unmedicated outpatients diagnosed with BPD with recent self-injurious behavior was assessed on 5 neuropsychological domains. Patients were also assessed for general IQ, demographic and other salient clinical variables. Patients were randomized to one of four treatment conditions, which lasted up to 1 year. Number of weeks in treatment (WIT) up to 1 year was utilized as the index of TNC. Results Thirty-three percent of the subsample (n = 12) did not complete 1 year of treatment. However, more WIT were predicted by better baseline executive control (Trails B; p < 0.01) and visual memory performance (Benton visual retention; p < 0.001); other neuropsychological domains did not predict WIT. Conclusion In the treatment of outpatients with BPD, better executive control and visual memory performance predict more WIT. Assessing and addressing these neurocognitive factors in treatment may reduce TNC in this high-risk population. PMID:22116411

  14. Faster photodegradation rate and higher dioxin yield of triclosan induced by cationic surfactant CTAB.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Xianliang; Zheng, Xiaodong; Xie, Qing; Yang, Xianhai; Xiao, Jie; Xue, Weifeng; Chen, Jingwen

    2014-06-30

    Triclosan has received extensive attention as it has been frequently detected in the aquatic environment. Photolysis was found to be a major pathway governing the fate of triclosan in the aquatic environment. However, the effects of surfactants that usually coexist with triclosan, on the photodegradation of triclosan, are largely unknown. In this study, the effects of selected surfactants on the photodegradation of triclosan were investigated experimentally. The results show that anionic sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate, sodium dodecyl sulfate and neutral polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate inhibit the photolysis of triclosan, whereas cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) significantly accelerates the photodegradation rate of triclosan. The interactions between the hydrophilic group of CTAB and anionic triclosan lead to the apparent decrease of pKa of triclosan from 8.4 to 6.1, which increase the fraction of anionic triclosan from 4% to 89% in neutral solution. A red shift in the UV-VIS absorption spectrum is exhibited, thus leading to the increased photodegradation rate of triclosan. The accelerations caused by CTAB were observed under xenon lamp and Hg lamp irradiances, as well as under natural sunlight. Effect of CTAB demonstrated pH dependence with significantly enhancement under pH 5∼9 and inhibition at pH=3. The presence of CTAB also increased the yield of 2,8-dichlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from the photolysis of triclosan about 7 times at pH=7.

  15. State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

    PubMed

    Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

    2009-01-01

    Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR. PMID:19789005

  16. Teacher Quality and Educational Equality: Do Teachers with Higher Standards-Based Evaluation Ratings Close Student Achievement Gaps?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borman, Geoffrey D.; Kimball, Steven M.

    2005-01-01

    Using standards-based evaluation ratings for nearly 400 teachers, and achievement results for over 7,000 students from grades 4-6, this study investigated the distribution and achievement effects of teacher quality in Washoe County, a mid-sized school district serving Reno and Sparks, Nevada. Classrooms with higher concentrations of minority,…

  17. The Role of Prior Mathematical Experience in Predicting Mathematics Performance in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Fiona; Hannigan, Ailish; Fitzmaurice, Olivia

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of deficiencies in basic mathematical skills of beginning undergraduates has been documented worldwide. Many different theories have been set out as to why these declines in mathematical competency levels have occurred over time. One such theory is the widening access to higher education which has resulted in a less mathematically…

  18. Cochlea-scaled spectral entropy predicts rate-invariant intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences1

    PubMed Central

    Stilp, Christian E.; Kiefte, Michael; Alexander, Joshua M.; Kluender, Keith R.

    2010-01-01

    Some evidence, mostly drawn from experiments using only a single moderate rate of speech, suggests that low-frequency amplitude modulations may be particularly important for intelligibility. Here, two experiments investigated intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences across a wide range of simulated speaking rates, and two metrics were used to predict results. Sentence intelligibility was assessed when successive segments of fixed duration were temporally reversed (exp. 1), and when sentences were processed through four third-octave-band filters, the outputs of which were desynchronized (exp. 2). For both experiments, intelligibility decreased with increasing distortion. However, in exp. 2, intelligibility recovered modestly with longer desynchronization. Across conditions, performances measured as a function of proportion of utterance distorted converged to a common function. Estimates of intelligibility derived from modulation transfer functions predict a substantial proportion of the variance in listeners’ responses in exp. 1, but fail to predict performance in exp. 2. By contrast, a metric of potential information, quantified as relative dissimilarity (change) between successive cochlear-scaled spectra, is introduced. This metric reliably predicts listeners’ intelligibility across the full range of speaking rates in both experiments. Results support an information-theoretic approach to speech perception and the significance of spectral change rather than physical units of time. PMID:20968382

  19. Infected honeybee foragers incur a higher loss in efficiency than in the rate of energetic gain

    PubMed Central

    Naug, Dhruba

    2014-01-01

    Parasites, by altering the nutritional and energetic state of their hosts, can significantly alter their foraging behaviour. In honeybees, an infection with Nosema ceranae has been shown to lower the energetic state of individual bees, bringing about changes in behaviours associated with foraging. Comparing the foraging trip times, hive times in between trips, and the crop contents of uninfected and infected foragers as they depart on foraging trips and return from them, this study examined how any differences in these variables influence alternative foraging currencies. The results show that infected bees take longer foraging trips, spend shorter time in the hive between successive trips and bring back less sugar from each trip. These changes have a stronger adverse effect on their efficiency of energetic gain as compared with their rate of energetic gain, which has important implications for individual and colony life history. PMID:25376802

  20. Infected honeybee foragers incur a higher loss in efficiency than in the rate of energetic gain.

    PubMed

    Naug, Dhruba

    2014-11-01

    Parasites, by altering the nutritional and energetic state of their hosts, can significantly alter their foraging behaviour. In honeybees, an infection with Nosema ceranae has been shown to lower the energetic state of individual bees, bringing about changes in behaviours associated with foraging. Comparing the foraging trip times, hive times in between trips, and the crop contents of uninfected and infected foragers as they depart on foraging trips and return from them, this study examined how any differences in these variables influence alternative foraging currencies. The results show that infected bees take longer foraging trips, spend shorter time in the hive between successive trips and bring back less sugar from each trip. These changes have a stronger adverse effect on their efficiency of energetic gain as compared with their rate of energetic gain, which has important implications for individual and colony life history.

  1. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  2. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-01-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin. PMID:26487363

  3. Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

    1996-01-01

    We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

  4. Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

    2015-12-01

    One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

  5. Predicting organic hydrogen atom transfer rate constants using the Marcus cross relation

    PubMed Central

    Warren, Jeffrey J.; Mayer, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Chemical reactions that involve net hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) are ubiquitous in chemistry and biology, from the action of antioxidants to industrial and metalloenzyme catalysis. This report develops and validates a procedure to predict rate constants for HAT reactions of oxyl radicals (RO•) in various media. Our procedure uses the Marcus cross relation (CR) and includes adjustments for solvent hydrogen-bonding effects on both the kinetics and thermodynamics of the reactions. Kinetic solvent effects (KSEs) are included by using Ingold’s model, and thermodynamic solvent effects are accounted for by using an empirical model developed by Abraham. These adjustments are shown to be critical to the success of our combined model, referred to as the CR/KSE model. As an initial test of the CR/KSE model we measured self-exchange and cross rate constants in different solvents for reactions of the 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylphenoxyl radical and the hydroxylamine 2,2′-6,6′-tetramethyl-piperidin-1-ol. Excellent agreement is observed between the calculated and directly determined cross rate constants. We then extend the model to over 30 known HAT reactions of oxyl radicals with OH or CH bonds, including biologically relevant reactions of ascorbate, peroxyl radicals, and α-tocopherol. The CR/KSE model shows remarkable predictive power, predicting rate constants to within a factor of 5 for almost all of the surveyed HAT reactions. PMID:20215463

  6. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    PubMed Central

    van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome. Methods We conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls. Results Artifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn), good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN), and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1). HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024–0.966; p = 0.049). Conclusion In-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and

  7. Match Rates Into Higher-Income, Controllable Lifestyle Specialties for Students From Highly Ranked, Research-Based Medical Schools Compared With Other Applicants

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Mitesh S.; Katz, Joel T.; Volpp, Kevin G.

    2010-01-01

    Background Factors impacting medical student specialty career choice are poorly understood, but may include income potential and lifestyle features such as limited and predictable work hours. Methods Data from the National Resident Matching Program and the San Francisco Match were used to examine match rates into higher-income controllable lifestyle (CL), lower-income CL, and noncontrollable lifestyle (NCL) specialties from 2002 to 2007. We studied 3 cohorts: students from highly ranked, research-based medical schools, other US senior medical students, and independent applicants (consisting mostly of graduates from foreign medical schools). Results By 2007, 22.5% of students from highly ranked schools matched into a higher-income CL specialty compared with 16.5% of other US seniors and 8.4% of independent applicants. During the study period, students from highly ranked schools increased their match rate in higher-income CL specialties by 7.9%, while all cohorts experienced declines in match rates for NCL specialties. Compared with other US seniors, students from highly ranked schools were more likely to match into higher-income CL specialties (odds ratio [OR], 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27–1.68), while independent applicants were much less likely to do so (OR, 0.46; 95% CI: 0.42–0.51). Independent applicants had the highest odds (OR, 2.38; 95% CI: 2.25–2.52) of matching into NCL specialties. Conclusions All cohorts had declining match rates into NCL specialties from 2002 to 2007. When compared with other US seniors, students from highly ranked schools had the highest odds of matching in higher-income CL specialties, while independent applicants had the highest odds of matching into NCL specialties. These trends are important to consider in light of recent efforts to better balance the physician workforce. PMID:21976084

  8. Higher Levels of Psychopathy Predict Poorer Motor Control: Implications for Understanding the Psychopathy Construct

    PubMed Central

    Robinson, Michael D.; Bresin, Konrad

    2014-01-01

    A review of the literature suggests that higher levels of psychopathy may be linked to less effective behavioral control. However, several commentators have urged caution in making statements of this type in the absence of direct evidence. In two studies (total N = 142), moment-to-moment accuracy in a motor control task was examined as a function of dimensional variations in psychopathy in an undergraduate population. As hypothesized, motor control was distinctively worse at higher levels of psychopathy relative to lower levels, both as a function of primary and secondary psychopathy and particularly their shared variance. These novel findings provide support for the idea that motor control systematically varies by psychopathy, in a basic manner, consistent with views of psychopathy emphasizing lesser control. PMID:25419045

  9. Specific psychological variables predict quality of diet in women of lower, but not higher, educational attainment

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Wendy; Schlotz, Wolff; Crozier, Sarah; Skinner, Timothy C; Haslam, Cheryl; Robinson, Sian; Inskip, Hazel; Cooper, Cyrus; Barker, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Our previous work found that perceived control over life was a significant predictor of the quality of diet of women of lower educational attainment. In this paper, we explore the influence on quality of diet of a range of psychological and social factors identified during focus group discussions, and specify the way this differs in women of lower and higher educational attainment. We assessed educational attainment, quality of diet, and psycho-social factors in 378 women attending Sure Start Children’s Centres and baby clinics in Southampton, UK. Multiple-group path analysis showed that in women of lower educational attainment, the effect of general self-efficacy on quality of diet was mediated through perceptions of control and through food involvement, but that there were also direct effects of social support for healthy eating and having positive outcome expectancies. There was no effect of self-efficacy, perceived control or outcome expectancies on the quality of diet of women of higher educational attainment, though having more social support and food involvement were associated with improved quality of diet in these women. Our analysis confirms our hypothesis that control-related factors are more important in determining dietary quality in women of lower educational attainment than in women of higher educational attainment. PMID:21078352

  10. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    SciTech Connect

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2011-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa. Conclusions: There is a lack of correlation between

  11. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  12. Higher intron loss rate in Arabidopsis thaliana than A. lyrata is consistent with stronger selection for a smaller genome.

    PubMed

    Fawcett, Jeffrey A; Rouzé, Pierre; Van de Peer, Yves

    2012-02-01

    The number of introns varies considerably among different organisms. This can be explained by the differences in the rates of intron gain and loss. Two factors that are likely to influence these rates are selection for or against introns and the mutation rate that generates the novel intron or the intronless copy. Although it has been speculated that stronger selection for a compact genome might result in a higher rate of intron loss and a lower rate of intron gain, clear evidence is lacking, and the role of selection in determining these rates has not been established. Here, we studied the gain and loss of introns in the two closely related species Arabidopsis thaliana and A. lyrata as it was recently shown that A. thaliana has been undergoing a faster genome reduction driven by selection. We found that A. thaliana has lost six times more introns than A. lyrata since the divergence of the two species but gained very few introns. We suggest that stronger selection for genome reduction probably resulted in the much higher intron loss rate in A. thaliana, although further analysis is required as we could not find evidence that the loss rate increased in A. thaliana as opposed to having decreased in A. lyrata compared with the rate in the common ancestor. We also examined the pattern of the intron gains and losses to better understand the mechanisms by which they occur. Microsimilarity was detected between the splice sites of several gained and lost introns, suggesting that nonhomologous end joining repair of double-strand breaks might be a common pathway not only for intron gain but also for intron loss.

  13. Informatics Technology Mimics Ecology: Dense, Mutualistic Collaboration Networks Are Associated with Higher Publication Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sorani, Marco D.

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature. We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications. Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative. Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  14. Informatics technology mimics ecology: dense, mutualistic collaboration networks are associated with higher publication rates.

    PubMed

    Sorani, Marco D

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature.We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications.Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative.Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  15. Informatics technology mimics ecology: dense, mutualistic collaboration networks are associated with higher publication rates.

    PubMed

    Sorani, Marco D

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature.We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications.Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative.Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  16. The rate of neutron star binary mergers in the universe - Minimal predictions for gravity wave detectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phinney, E. S.

    1991-01-01

    Of the many sources which gravitational wave observatories might see, merging neutron star binaries are the most predictable. Their waveforms at the observable frequencies are easy to calculate. And three systems which will merge in less than a Hubble time have already been observed as binary pulsars: two in the disk of the Galaxy, and one in a globular cluster. From the lifetimes and positions of these, a lower limit to the merger rate in the Galaxy and globular cluster system are inferred with confidence. Taking the merger rate in other galaxies to scale with the star formation rate, the merger rate expected in the local universe is computed. An ultraconservative lower limit to the rate gives three per year within 1 Gpc. The best estimate, still conservative in that it considers only systems like those already observed, gives three per year within 200 Mpc. An upper limit of three mergers per year within 23/h Mpc is set by the rate of Type Ib supernovae. The rates of black hole binary mergers and black hole-neutron star binary mergers are model-dependent, but could be comparable to the given rate of neutron-star binary mergers.

  17. Designing safer chemicals: predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes.

    PubMed Central

    Yin, H; Anders, M W; Korzekwa, K R; Higgins, L; Thummel, K E; Kharasch, E D; Jones, J P

    1995-01-01

    A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts the rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies (delta Hact) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1-difluoro-1,2,2-trichloroethane, 1,1,1-trifluro-2,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2,-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: In(rate, rat liver microsomes) = 44.99 - 1.79(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86; In(rate, human CYP2E1) = 46.99 - 1.77(delta Hact), r2 = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro metabolism by humans: In[F(-)]peak plasma = 42.87 - 1.57(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86. To our knowledge, these are the first in vivo human metabolic rates to be quantitatively predicted. Furthermore, this is one of the first examples where computational predictions and in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. PMID:7479940

  18. Ancient documents bleed-through evaluation and its application for predicting OCR error rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rabeux, V.; Journet, N.; Domenger, J. P.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a way to evaluate the bleed-through defect on very old document images. We design measures to quantify and evaluate the verso ink bleeding through the paper onto the recto side. Measuring the bleed-through defect alows us to perform statistical analysis that are able to predict the feasibility of different post-scan tasks. In this article we choose to illustrate our measures by creating two OCR error rate predicting models based bleed-through evaluation. Two models are proposed, one for Abbyy FineReader * which is a very power-full commercial OCR and OCRopus † which is sponsored by Google. Both prediction models appears to be very accurate when calculating various statistic indicators.

  19. Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

    SciTech Connect

    Niu, Nina N.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Larvie, Mykol; Curtin, Hugh; Loeffler, Jay S.; McKenna, Michael J.; Shih, Helen A.

    2014-05-01

    Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

  20. Simple predictions of maximum transport rate in unsaturated soil and rock

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nimmo, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    In contrast with the extreme variability expected for water and contaminant fluxes in the unsaturated zone, evidence from 64 field tests of preferential flow indicates that the maximum transport speed Vmax, adjusted for episodicity of infiltration, deviates little from a geometric mean of 13 m/d. A model based on constant-speed travel during infiltration pulses of actual or estimated duration can predict Vmax with approximate order-of-magnitude accuracy, irrespective of medium or travel distance, thereby facilitating such problems as the prediction of worst-case contaminant traveltimes. The lesser variability suggests that preferential flow is subject to rate-limiting mechanisms analogous to those that impose a terminal velocity on objects in free fall and to rate-compensating mechanisms analogous to Le Chatlier's principle. A critical feature allowing such mechanisms to dominate may be the presence of interfacial boundaries confined by neither solid material nor capillary forces. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Simple predictions of maximum transport rate in unsaturated soil and rock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nimmo, John R.

    2007-05-01

    In contrast with the extreme variability expected for water and contaminant fluxes in the unsaturated zone, evidence from 64 field tests of preferential flow indicates that the maximum transport speed Vmax, adjusted for episodicity of infiltration, deviates little from a geometric mean of 13 m/d. A model based on constant-speed travel during infiltration pulses of actual or estimated duration can predict Vmax with approximate order-of-magnitude accuracy, irrespective of medium or travel distance, thereby facilitating such problems as the prediction of worst-case contaminant traveltimes. The lesser variability suggests that preferential flow is subject to rate-limiting mechanisms analogous to those that impose a terminal velocity on objects in free fall and to rate-compensating mechanisms analogous to Le Chatlier's principle. A critical feature allowing such mechanisms to dominate may be the presence of interfacial boundaries confined by neither solid material nor capillary forces.

  2. The functional response predicts the effect of resource distribution on the optimal movement rate of consumers.

    PubMed

    Calcagno, Vincent; Grognard, Frédéric; Hamelin, Frédéric M; Wajnberg, Éric; Mailleret, Ludovic

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how often individuals should move when foraging over patchy habitats is a central question in ecology. By combining optimality and functional response theories, we show analytically how the optimal movement rate varies with the average resource level (enrichment) and resource distribution (patch heterogeneity). We find that the type of functional response predicts the effect of enrichment in homogeneous habitats: enrichment should decrease movement for decelerating functional responses, but increase movement for accelerating responses. An intermediate resource level thus maximises movement for type-III responses. Counterintuitively, greater movement costs favour an increase in movement. In heterogeneous habitats predictions further depend on how enrichment alters the variance of resource distribution. Greater patch variance always increases the optimal rate of movement, except for type-IV functional responses. While the functional response is well established as a fundamental determinant of consumer-resource dynamics, our results indicate its importance extends to the understanding of individual movement strategies.

  3. Interest rate prediction: a neuro-hybrid approach with data preprocessing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehdiyev, Nijat; Enke, David

    2014-07-01

    The following research implements a differential evolution-based fuzzy-type clustering method with a fuzzy inference neural network after input preprocessing with regression analysis in order to predict future interest rates, particularly 3-month T-bill rates. The empirical results of the proposed model is compared against nonparametric models, such as locally weighted regression and least squares support vector machines, along with two linear benchmark models, the autoregressive model and the random walk model. The root mean square error is reported for comparison.

  4. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy’s landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk. PMID:27011757

  5. Predicting the emission rate of volatile organic compounds from vinyl flooring.

    PubMed

    Cox, Steven S; Little, John C; Hodgson, Alfred T

    2002-02-15

    A model for predicting the rate at which a volatile organic compound (VOC) is emitted from a diffusion-controlled material is validated for three contaminants (n-pentadecane, n-tetradecane, and phenol) found in vinyl flooring (VF). Model parameters are the initial VOC concentration in the material phase (C0), the material/air partition coefficient (K), and the material-phase diffusion coefficient (D). The model was verified by comparing predicted gas-phase concentrations to data obtained during small-scale chamber tests and by comparing predicted material-phase concentrations to those measured at the conclusion of the chamber tests. Chamber tests were conducted with the VF placed top-side-up and bottom-side-up. With the exception of phenol and within the limits of experimental precision, the mass of VOCs recovered in the gas-phase balances the mass emitted from the material phase. The model parameters (C0, K, and D) were measured using procedures completely independent of the chamber test. Gas- and material-phase predictions compare well to the bottom-side-up chamber data. The lower emission rates for the top-side-up orientation may be explained by the presence of a low-permeability surface layer. The sink effect of the stainless steel chamber surface was shown to be negligible. PMID:11878387

  6. Predicting US Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing Rates: Mothers' Cognitions and Structural Life Circumstances.

    PubMed

    Vaala, Sarah E; Hornik, Robert C

    2014-04-01

    There has been rising international concern over media use with children under two. As little is known about the factors associated with more or less viewing among very young children, this study examines maternal factors predictive of TV/video viewing rates among American infants and toddlers. Guided by the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, this survey study examines relationships between children's rates of TV/video viewing and their mothers' structural life circumstances (e.g., number of children in the home; mother's screen use), and cognitions (e.g., attitudes; norms). Results suggest that mothers' structural circumstances and cognitions respectively contribute independent explanatory power to the prediction of children's TV/video viewing. Influence of structural circumstances is partially mediated through cognitions. Mothers' attitudes as well as their own TV/video viewing behavior were particularly predictive of children's viewing. Implications of these findings for international efforts to understand and reduce infant/toddler TV/video exposure are discussed. PMID:25489335

  7. Thiopurine withdrawal during sustained clinical remission in inflammatory bowel disease: relapse and recapture rates, with predictive factors in 237 patients

    PubMed Central

    Kennedy, N A; Kalla, R; Warner, B; Gambles, C J; Musy, R; Reynolds, S; Dattani, R; Nayee, H; Felwick, R; Harris, R; Marriott, S; Senanayake, S M; Lamb, C A; Al-Hilou, H; Gaya, D R; Irving, P M; Mansfield, J; Parkes, M; Ahmad, T; Cummings, J R F; Arnott, I D; Satsangi, J; Lobo, A J; Smith, M; Lindsay, J O; Lees, C W

    2014-01-01

    Background Thiopurines (azathioprine and mercaptopurine) remain integral to most medical strategies for maintaining remission in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Indefinite use of these drugs is tempered by long-term risks. While clinical relapse is noted frequently following drug withdrawal, there are few published data on predictive factors. Aim To investigate the success of planned thiopurine withdrawal in patients in sustained clinical remission to identify rates and predictors of relapse. Methods This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study from 11 centres across the UK. Patients included had a definitive diagnosis of IBD, continuous thiopurine use ≥3 years and withdrawal when in sustained clinical remission. All patients had a minimum of 12 months follow-up post drug withdrawal. Primary and secondary end points were relapse at 12 and 24 months respectively. Results 237 patients were included in the study (129 CD; 108 UC). Median duration of thiopurine use prior to withdrawal was 6.0 years (interquartile range 4.4–8.4). At follow-up, moderate/severe relapse was observed in 23% CD and 12% UC patients at 12 months, 39% CD and 26% UC at 24 months. Relapse rate at 12 months was significantly higher in CD than UC (P = 0.035). Elevated CRP at withdrawal was associated with higher relapse rates at 12 months for CD (P = 0.005), while an elevated white cell count was predictive at 12 months for UC (P = 0.007). Conclusion Thiopurine withdrawal in the context of sustained remission is associated with a 1-year moderate-to-severe relapse rate of 23% in Crohn's disease and 12% in ulcerative colitis. PMID:25284134

  8. Phenotypic engineering of sperm-production rate confirms evolutionary predictions of sperm competition theory

    PubMed Central

    Sekii, Kiyono; Vizoso, Dita B.; Kuales, Georg; De Mulder, Katrien; Ladurner, Peter; Schärer, Lukas

    2013-01-01

    Sperm production is a key male reproductive trait and an important parameter in sperm competition theory. Under sperm competition, paternity success is predicted to depend strongly on male allocation to sperm production. Furthermore, because sperm production is inherently costly, individuals should economize in sperm expenditure, and conditional adjustment of the copulation frequency according to their sperm availability may be expected. However, experimental studies showing effects of sperm production on mating behaviour and paternity success have so far been scarce, mainly because sperm production is difficult to manipulate directly in animals. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to manipulate sperm-production rate, by employing dose-dependent RNA interference (RNAi) of a spermatogenesis-specific gene, macbol1, in the free-living flatworm Macrostomum lignano. We demonstrate (i) that our novel dose-dependent RNAi approach allows us to induce high variability in sperm-production rate; (ii) that a reduced sperm-production rate is associated with a decreased copulation frequency, suggesting conditional adjustment of mating behaviour; and (iii) that both sperm production and copulation frequency are important determinants of paternity success in a competitive situation, as predicted by sperm competition theory. Our study clearly documents the potential of phenotypic engineering via dose-dependent RNAi to test quantitative predictions of evolutionary theory. PMID:23446521

  9. Distributed Patterns of Event-Related Potentials Predict Subsequent Ratings of Abstract Stimulus Attributes

    PubMed Central

    Bode, Stefan; Bennett, Daniel; Stahl, Jutta; Murawski, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to pleasant and rewarding visual stimuli can bias people's choices towards either immediate or delayed gratification. We hypothesised that this phenomenon might be based on carry-over effects from a fast, unconscious assessment of the abstract ‘time reference’ of a stimuli, i.e. how the stimulus relates to one's personal understanding and connotation of time. Here we investigated whether participants' post-experiment ratings of task-irrelevant, positive background visual stimuli for the dimensions ‘arousal’ (used as a control condition) and ‘time reference’ were related to differences in single-channel event-related potentials (ERPs) and whether they could be predicted from spatio-temporal patterns of ERPs. Participants performed a demanding foreground choice-reaction task while on each trial one task-irrelevant image (depicting objects, people and scenes) was presented in the background. Conventional ERP analyses as well as multivariate support vector regression (SVR) analyses were conducted to predict participants' subsequent ratings. We found that only SVR allowed both ‘arousal’ and ‘time reference’ ratings to be predicted during the first 200 ms post-stimulus. This demonstrates an early, automatic semantic stimulus analysis, which might be related to the high relevance of ‘time reference’ to everyday decision-making and preference formation. PMID:25271850

  10. Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words

    PubMed Central

    Vejdemo, Susanne; Hörberg, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For the 167 content items in the Swadesh list, data was gathered on the features of lexical replacement rate, word class, frequency, age of acquisition, synonyms, arousal, imageability and average mutual information, either from published databases or gathered from corpora and lexica. A linear regression model shows that, in addition to frequency, synonyms, senses and imageability are significantly related to the lexical replacement rate of content words–in particular the number of synonyms that a word has. The model shows no differences in lexical replacement rate between word classes, and outperforms a model with word class and word frequency predictors only. PMID:26820737

  11. Predicting the reaction rate constants of micropollutants with hydroxyl radicals in water using QSPR modeling.

    PubMed

    Jin, Xiaohui; Peldszus, Sigrid; Huck, Peter M

    2015-11-01

    Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models which predict hydroxyl radical rate constants (kOH) for a wide range of emerging micropollutants are a cost effective approach to assess the susceptibility of these contaminants to advanced oxidation processes (AOPs). A QSPR model for the prediction of kOH of emerging micropollutants from their physico-chemical properties was developed with special attention to model validation, applicability domain and mechanistic interpretation. In this study, 118 emerging micropollutants including those experimentally determined by the author and data collected from the literature, were randomly divided into the training set (n=89) and validation set (n=29). 951 DRAGON molecular descriptors were calculated for model development. The QSPR model was calibrated by applying forward multiple linear regression to the training set. As a result, 7 DRAGON descriptors were found to be important in predicting the kOH values which related to the electronegativity, polarizability, and double bonds, etc. of the compounds. With outliers identified and removed, the final model fits the training set very well and shows good robustness and internal predictivity. The model was then externally validated with the validation set showing good predictive power. The applicability domain of the model was also assessed using the Williams plot approach. Overall, the developed QSPR model provides a valuable tool for an initial assessment of the susceptibility of micropollutants to AOPs.

  12. Predicting the reaction rate constants of micropollutants with hydroxyl radicals in water using QSPR modeling.

    PubMed

    Jin, Xiaohui; Peldszus, Sigrid; Huck, Peter M

    2015-11-01

    Quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models which predict hydroxyl radical rate constants (kOH) for a wide range of emerging micropollutants are a cost effective approach to assess the susceptibility of these contaminants to advanced oxidation processes (AOPs). A QSPR model for the prediction of kOH of emerging micropollutants from their physico-chemical properties was developed with special attention to model validation, applicability domain and mechanistic interpretation. In this study, 118 emerging micropollutants including those experimentally determined by the author and data collected from the literature, were randomly divided into the training set (n=89) and validation set (n=29). 951 DRAGON molecular descriptors were calculated for model development. The QSPR model was calibrated by applying forward multiple linear regression to the training set. As a result, 7 DRAGON descriptors were found to be important in predicting the kOH values which related to the electronegativity, polarizability, and double bonds, etc. of the compounds. With outliers identified and removed, the final model fits the training set very well and shows good robustness and internal predictivity. The model was then externally validated with the validation set showing good predictive power. The applicability domain of the model was also assessed using the Williams plot approach. Overall, the developed QSPR model provides a valuable tool for an initial assessment of the susceptibility of micropollutants to AOPs. PMID:26005810

  13. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome.

    PubMed

    Adrian, Andrew B; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non-randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  14. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome.

    PubMed

    Adrian, Andrew B; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non-randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses.

  15. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome

    PubMed Central

    Adrian, Andrew B.; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non‐randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  16. Low Reproductive Rate Predicts Species Sensitivity to Habitat Loss: A Meta-Analysis of Wetland Vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Quesnelle, Pauline E.; Lindsay, Kathryn E.; Fahrig, Lenore

    2014-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species’ reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists. PMID:24651675

  17. Heart Rate-Corrected QT Interval Helps Predict Mortality after Intentional Organophosphate Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Shou-Hsuan; Lin, Ja-Liang; Weng, Cheng-Hao; Yang, Huang-Yu; Hsu, Ching-Wei; Chen, Kuan-Hsing; Huang, Wen-Hung; Yen, Tzung-Hai

    2012-01-01

    Introduction In this study, we investigated the outcomes for patients with intentional organophosphate poisoning. Previous reports indicate that in contrast to normal heart rate-corrected QT intervals (QTc), QTc prolongation might be indicative of a poor prognosis for patients exposed to organophosphates. Methods We analyzed the records of 118 patients who were referred to Chang Gung Memorial Hospital for management of organophosphate poisoning between 2000 and 2011. Patients were grouped according to their initial QTc interval, i.e., normal (<0.44 s) or prolonged (>0.44 s). Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and mortality data were obtained for analysis. Results The incidence of hypotension in patients with prolonged QTc intervals was higher than that in the patients with normal QTc intervals (P = 0.019). By the end of the study, 18 of 118 (15.2%) patients had died, including 3 of 75 (4.0%) patients with normal QTc intervals and 15 of 43 (34.9%) patients with prolonged QTc intervals. Using multivariate-Cox-regression analysis, we found that hypotension (OR = 10.930, 95% CI = 2.961–40.345, P = 0.000), respiratory failure (OR = 4.867, 95% CI = 1.062–22.301, P = 0.042), coma (OR = 3.482, 95% CI = 1.184–10.238, P = 0.023), and QTc prolongation (OR = 7.459, 95% CI = 2.053–27.099, P = 0.002) were significant risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, it was revealed that non-survivors not only had longer QTc interval (503.00±41.56 versus 432.71±51.21 ms, P = 0.002), but also suffered higher incidences of hypotension (83.3 versus 12.0%, P = 0.000), shortness of breath (64 versus 94.4%, P = 0.010), bronchorrhea (55 versus 94.4%, P = 0.002), bronchospasm (50.0 versus 94.4%, P = 0.000), respiratory failure (94.4 versus 43.0%, P = 0.000) and coma (66.7 versus 11.0%, P = 0.000) than survivors. Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that cumulative mortality was higher among patients

  18. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    PubMed

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  19. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    PubMed

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory. PMID:27098421

  20. Kinetic rate constant prediction supports the conformational selection mechanism of protein binding.

    PubMed

    Moal, Iain H; Bates, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    The prediction of protein-protein kinetic rate constants provides a fundamental test of our understanding of molecular recognition, and will play an important role in the modeling of complex biological systems. In this paper, a feature selection and regression algorithm is applied to mine a large set of molecular descriptors and construct simple models for association and dissociation rate constants using empirical data. Using separate test data for validation, the predicted rate constants can be combined to calculate binding affinity with accuracy matching that of state of the art empirical free energy functions. The models show that the rate of association is linearly related to the proportion of unbound proteins in the bound conformational ensemble relative to the unbound conformational ensemble, indicating that the binding partners must adopt a geometry near to that of the bound prior to binding. Mirroring the conformational selection and population shift mechanism of protein binding, the models provide a strong separate line of evidence for the preponderance of this mechanism in protein-protein binding, complementing structural and theoretical studies.

  1. Predicting enhanced mass flow rates in gas microchannels using nonkinetic models.

    PubMed

    Dadzie, S Kokou; Brenner, Howard

    2012-09-01

    Different nonkinetic approaches are adopted in this paper towards theoretically predicting the experimentally observed phenomenon of enhanced mass flow rates accompanying pressure-driven rarefied gas flows through microchannels. Our analysis utilizes a full set of mechanically consistent volume-diffusion hydrodynamic equations, allowing complete, closed-form, analytical solutions to this class of problems. As an integral part of the analysis, existing experimental data pertaining to the subatmospheric pressure dependence of viscosity were analyzed. The several nonkinetic approaches investigated were (1) pressure-dependent viscosity exponent model, (2) slip-velocity models, and (3) volume diffusion model. We explored the ability to predict the gas's mass flow rate over the full range of Knudsen numbers, including furnishing a physically sound interpretation of the well-known Knudsen minimum observed in the mass flow rate. Matching of a pressure-dependent viscosity model, one that follows the standard temperature-viscosity power law and its supporting single momentum diffusion mechanism, did not allow an accurate interpretation of the data. Rather, matching of this model with the flow rate was found to mismatch the experimental pressure dependence of the viscosity. An additional transport mechanism model, one based on volume diffusion, offered a comprehensive understanding of the Knudsen minimum, while also resulting in excellent agreement with experimental data well into the transition regime (up to a Knudsen number of 5).

  2. Measuring the activities of higher organisms in activated sludge by means of mechanical shearing pretreatment and oxygen uptake rate.

    PubMed

    Hao, Xiaodi; Wang, Qilin; Cao, Yali; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

    2010-07-01

    A pretreatment method was developed to assess the activities of higher organisms. The method is based on mechanical shearing to damage the large cells of the protozoan and metazoan community in activated sludge. The procedure was confirmed through experimentation to be effective in determining the activities of higher organisms by comparing oxygen uptake rates (OURs) before and after the higher organisms were eradicated. Shearing led to disintegration of flocs, which could be effectively reconstituted by centrifugation. The reconstitution of the sludge flocs was essential since otherwise the activity of the floc mass would be too high due to lack of diffusion limitation. Mechanical shearing had no influence on the morphology, quantity and specific activity of yeasts, and it was inferred that bacteria smaller than yeasts in size would also not be influenced by the applied shearing procedure. Moreover, the effect of filamentous organisms on the measured activities of higher organisms was experimentally demonstrated and analyzed, and determined to be so weak that it could be ignored. Based on these tests, five typical activated sludge processes were selected to measure the contribution of higher organisms to the original OUR. The measured activities of higher organisms ranged from 9.4 to 25.0% of the original OURs.

  3. Strength in numbers: large and permanent colonies have higher queen oviposition rates in the invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile, Mayr).

    PubMed

    Abril, Sílvia; Gómez, Crisanto

    2014-03-01

    Polydomy associated with unicoloniality is a common trait of invasive species. In the invasive Argentine ant, colonies are seasonally polydomous. Most follow a seasonal fission-fussion pattern: they disperse in the spring and summer and aggregate in the fall and winter. However, a small proportion of colonies do not migrate; instead, they inhabit permanent nesting sites. These colonies are large and highly polydomous. The aim of this study was to (1) search for differences in the fecundity of queens between mother colonies (large and permanent) and satellite colonies (small and temporal), (2) determine if queens in mother and satellite colonies have different diets to clarify if colony size influences social organization and queen feeding, and (3) examine if colony location relative to the invasion front results in differences in the queen's diet. Our results indicate that queens from mother nests are more fertile than queens from satellite nests and that colony location does not affect queen oviposition rate. Ovarian dissections suggest that differences in ovarian morphology are not responsible for the higher queen oviposition rate in mother vs. satellite nests, since there were no differences in the number and length of ovarioles in queens from the two types of colonies. In contrast, the higher δ(15)N values of queens from mother nests imply that greater carnivorous source intake accounts for the higher oviposition rates.

  4. Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children.

    PubMed

    Main, Keith L; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

    2014-11-01

    Visual processing in the magnocellular pathway is a reputed influence on word recognition and reading performance. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are still unclear. To explore this concept, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rates but only for real words, not pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlations between contrast detection thresholds and the reading rates. We also found no correlations between speed discrimination or contrast detection and WASI subtest scores. These findings indicate that familiarity is a factor in magnocellular operations that may influence reading rate. We suggest this effect supports the idea that the magnocellular pathway contributes to word reading through an analysis of letter position.

  5. Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children

    PubMed Central

    Main, Keith L.; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Word familiarity may affect magnocellular processes of word recognition. To explore this idea, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed-discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rate, but only for words, not for pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlation between contrast sensitivity and reading rate and no correlation between speed discrimination thresholds WASI subtest scores. These findings support the position that reading rate is influenced by magnocellular circuitry attuned to the recognition of familiar word-forms. PMID:25278418

  6. A multi-rate decay model to predict energy-based acoustic parameters in churches (L).

    PubMed

    Martellotta, Francesco

    2009-03-01

    Multi-rate decays are sometimes observed in room acoustics, appearing when markedly different volumes are coupled together and resulting in nonlinear decay curves. Such behavior appears in several churches at the very beginning of the decay process, although in conditions which cannot be explicitly referred to as coupling phenomena. Consequently, multi-rate exponential decays may be suitable to model energy distribution in this group of buildings, providing a more elegant and easily applicable set of equations in place of a previously defined "linear" model, used to adapt Barron's revised theory. The paper shows that the multi-rate approach ensures ease of calculation, without significant loss in accuracy in predicting energy-based acoustic parameters.

  7. Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

    PubMed

    Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

    2016-01-01

    Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively.

  8. Non-explosive hydrogen and helium burnings: abundance predictions from the NACRE reaction rate compilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnould, M.; Goriely, S.; Jorissen, A.

    1999-07-01

    The abundances of the isotopes of the elements from C to Al produced by the non-explosive CNO, NeNa and MgAl modes of hydrogen burning, as well as by helium burning, are calculated with the thermonuclear rates recommended by the European compilation of reaction rates for astrophysics (NACRE). The impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on the derived abundances is discussed in the framework of a simple parametric astrophysical model. These calculations have the virtue of being a guide in the selection of the nuclear uncertainties that have to be duly analyzed in detailed model stars, particularly in order to perform meaningful confrontations between abundance observations and predictions. They are also hoped to help nuclear astrophysicists pinpointing the rate uncertainties that have to be reduced most urgently. An electronic version of this paper, with colour figures, is available at {\\it http://astro.ulb.ac.be}

  9. Efficacy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound washout rate in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma differentiation.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yan; Qin, Xia-Chuan; Luo, Yan; Li, Yong-Zhong; Zhou, Xiang

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the efficacy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) washout rate in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differentiation. Two hundred seventy-one patients underwent liver resection for HCC between April 2008 and December 2012 after being examined by CEUS using the contrast agent SonoVue with a low mechanical index (<0.1) in a routine procedure. Contrast agent washout rates obtained from video images were divided into four categories from slow to fast: WR1 = no washout in all phases (slowest); WR2 = washout after 120 s from contrast injection (late-phase washout); WR3 = washout between 41 and 120 s from contrast injection (portal venous washout); WR4 = washout before 40 s from contrast injection (fastest washout rate). HCC nodules were graded as well, moderately and poorly differentiated. Spearman rank correlation and χ(2)-tests were used to assess group relationships and differences. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the diagnostic predictive value of CEUS. Among the 271 patients, 18 (6.6%) had well differentiated, 150 (55.4%) had moderately differentiated and 103 (38.0%) had poorly differentiated HCC. Statistical tests indicated that washout rate was significantly correlated with tumor differentiation (p < 0.05), and the poorly differentiated HCCs had earlier washout. At the cutoff point of WR4, CEUS based on washout rate performed poorly in distinguishing poorly differentiated from moderately and well-differentiated HCCs, with a sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (area under the curve) of 24%, 97% and 0.68, respectively. However, at the cutoff point of WR2, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of CEUS in differentiating well-differentiated HCC from other HCCs were significantly better: 98%, 78% and 0.96, respectively. Thus, CEUS washout rate may have a role in identifying patients with well-differentiated HCC.

  10. Evaluation and prediction of material response during superplastic forming at various strain rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwal, Sumit

    Current trends in the automotive industry include replacing steel body components by superplastically formed aluminum alloys. The application of aluminum alloys is largely limited by the slow forming rates required for the superplastic forming process. In order to overcome the difficulties associated with this process, considerable research is being done to study the behavior of AA5083 at high strain rates. However, the microstructure evolution under these deformation conditions has not been characterized previously. In this study we have studied the microstructure evolution in tensile specimens of AA5083 deformed at a wide range of strain rates. Strain rates between 0.0005 and 3/s were used for the tests, which were performed with the samples at 450°C. The results showed that a strong crystallographic texture develops and the most highly strained regions of the samples recrystallize dynamically at strain rates greater than 0.01/s. For strain rates at or below 0.01/s, no recrystallization occurred. This recrystallization is stimulated by the constituent particles. The recrystallized grain size was smallest at the highly-strained, fracture point and increased in size as one moved away from the fracture end towards the grip of the sample. Below a critical strain, no further recrystallization was observed. This critical strain decreased with increasing strain rate and with an increase in the diameter of the largest constituent particles in the sample. Analysis of the results showed that both a critical strain rate and critical strain were required to achieve dynamic recrystallization. A model for critical strain rate by Humphreys and Kalu gave qualitative agreement with the experimental results. Tests were also conducted at room temperature followed by annealing at 450°C. Study of these specimens enabled a comparison of dynamic recrystallization with the critical strain driven static recrystallization process. Finite element simulations were used to predict the

  11. Implementation of Improved Transverse Shear Calculations and Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Analyses of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Lin-Fa; Kim, Soo; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A numerical procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear and strain rate dependent deformation response of polymer matrix composite laminated plates under high strain rate impact loadings. A recently developed strength of materials based micromechanics model, incorporating a set of nonlinear, strain rate dependent constitutive equations for the polymer matrix, is extended to account for the transverse shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of transverse shear deformation are investigated in order to improve the developed strain rate dependent micromechanics model. The validities of these assumptions are investigated using numerical and theoretical approaches. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio of the composite is developed. The revised micromechanics model is then implemented into a higher order laminated plate theory which is modified to include the effects of inelastic strains. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the mechanical response of composite plates under high strain rate loadings. Results show the transverse shear stresses cannot be neglected in the impact problem. A significant level of strain rate dependency and material nonlinearity is found in the deformation response of representative composite specimens.

  12. The effect of differential growth rates across plants on spectral predictions of physiological parameters.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, Tal; Hochberg, Uri; Rachmilevitch, Shimon; Karnieli, Arnon

    2014-01-01

    Leaves of various ages and positions in a plant's canopy can present distinct physiological, morphological and anatomical characteristics, leading to complexities in selecting a single leaf for spectral representation of an entire plant. A fortiori, as growth rates between canopies differ, spectral-based comparisons across multiple plants--often based on leaves' position but not age--becomes an even more challenging mission. This study explores the effect of differential growth rates on the reflectance variability between leaves of different canopies, and its implication on physiological predictions made by widely-used spectral indices. Two distinct irrigation treatments were applied for one month, in order to trigger the formation of different growth rates between two groups of grapevines. Throughout the experiment, the plants were physiologically and morphologically monitored, while leaves from every part of their canopies were spectrally and histologically sampled. As the control vines were constantly developing new leaves, the water deficit plants were experiencing growth inhibition, resulting in leaves of different age at similar nodal position across the treatments. This modification of the age-position correlation was characterized by a near infrared reflectance difference between younger and older leaves, which was found to be exponentially correlated (R(2) = 0.98) to the age-dependent area of intercellular air spaces within the spongy parenchyma. Overall, the foliage of the control plant became more spectrally variable, creating complications for intra- and inter-treatment leaf-based comparisons. Of the derived indices, the Structure-Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) was found indifferent to the age-position effect, allowing the treatments to be compared at any nodal position, while a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based stomatal conductance prediction was substantially affected by differential growth rates. As various biotic and abiotic

  13. Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

    2015-05-01

    The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. PMID:25482029

  14. The Effect of Differential Growth Rates across Plants on Spectral Predictions of Physiological Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Rapaport, Tal; Hochberg, Uri; Rachmilevitch, Shimon; Karnieli, Arnon

    2014-01-01

    Leaves of various ages and positions in a plant's canopy can present distinct physiological, morphological and anatomical characteristics, leading to complexities in selecting a single leaf for spectral representation of an entire plant. A fortiori, as growth rates between canopies differ, spectral-based comparisons across multiple plants – often based on leaves' position but not age – becomes an even more challenging mission. This study explores the effect of differential growth rates on the reflectance variability between leaves of different canopies, and its implication on physiological predictions made by widely-used spectral indices. Two distinct irrigation treatments were applied for one month, in order to trigger the formation of different growth rates between two groups of grapevines. Throughout the experiment, the plants were physiologically and morphologically monitored, while leaves from every part of their canopies were spectrally and histologically sampled. As the control vines were constantly developing new leaves, the water deficit plants were experiencing growth inhibition, resulting in leaves of different age at similar nodal position across the treatments. This modification of the age-position correlation was characterized by a near infrared reflectance difference between younger and older leaves, which was found to be exponentially correlated (R2 = 0.98) to the age-dependent area of intercellular air spaces within the spongy parenchyma. Overall, the foliage of the control plant became more spectrally variable, creating complications for intra- and inter-treatment leaf-based comparisons. Of the derived indices, the Structure-Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) was found indifferent to the age-position effect, allowing the treatments to be compared at any nodal position, while a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based stomatal conductance prediction was substantially affected by differential growth rates. As various biotic and

  15. Clinical application of fluctuation dissipation theory - Prediction of heart rate response to spontaneous breathing trial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niestemski, Liang R.; Chen, Man; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-03-01

    Contrary to the traditional view of the healthy physiological state as being a single static state, variation in physiologic variables has more recently been suggested to be a key component of the healthy state. Indeed, aging and disease are characterized by a loss of such variability. We apply the conceptual framework of fluctuation-dissipation theory (FDT) to predict the response to a common clinical intervention from historical fluctuations in physiologic time series data. The non-equilibrium FDT relates the response of a system to a perturbation to natural fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. We seek to understand with the FDT a common clinical perturbation, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), in which mechanical ventilation is briefly suspended while the patient breathes freely for a period of time. As a stress upon the heart of the patient, the SBT can be characterized as a perturbation of heart rate dynamics. A non-equilibrium, but steady-state FDT allows us to predict the heart rate recovery after the SBT stress. We show that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by this approach. This mathematical framework may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  16. Recombination rate variation and speciation: theoretical predictions and empirical results from rabbits and mice.

    PubMed

    Nachman, Michael W; Payseur, Bret A

    2012-02-01

    Recently diverged taxa may continue to exchange genes. A number of models of speciation with gene flow propose that the frequency of gene exchange will be lower in genomic regions of low recombination and that these regions will therefore be more differentiated. However, several population-genetic models that focus on selection at linked sites also predict greater differentiation in regions of low recombination simply as a result of faster sorting of ancestral alleles even in the absence of gene flow. Moreover, identifying the actual amount of gene flow from patterns of genetic variation is tricky, because both ancestral polymorphism and migration lead to shared variation between recently diverged taxa. New analytic methods have been developed to help distinguish ancestral polymorphism from migration. Along with a growing number of datasets of multi-locus DNA sequence variation, these methods have spawned a renewed interest in speciation models with gene flow. Here, we review both speciation and population-genetic models that make explicit predictions about how the rate of recombination influences patterns of genetic variation within and between species. We then compare those predictions with empirical data of DNA sequence variation in rabbits and mice. We find strong support for the prediction that genomic regions experiencing low levels of recombination are more differentiated. In most cases, reduced gene flow appears to contribute to the pattern, although disentangling the relative contribution of reduced gene flow and selection at linked sites remains a challenge. We suggest fruitful areas of research that might help distinguish between different models.

  17. What is preexisting strength? Predicting free association probabilities, similarity ratings, and cued recall probabilities.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Douglas L; Dyrdal, Gunvor M; Goodmon, Leilani B

    2005-08-01

    Measuring lexical knowledge poses a challenge to the study of the influence of preexisting knowledge on the retrieval of new memories. Many tasks focus on word pairs, but words are embedded in associative networks, so how should preexisting pair strength be measured? It has been measured by free association, similarity ratings, and co-occurrence statistics. Researchers interpret free association response probabilities as unbiased estimates of forward cue-to-target strength. In Study 1, analyses of large free association and extralist cued recall databases indicate that this interpretation is incorrect. Competitor and backward strengths bias free association probabilities, and as with other recall tasks, preexisting strength is described by a ratio rule. In Study 2, associative similarity ratings are predicted by forward and backward, but not by competitor, strength. Preexisting strength is not a unitary construct, because its measurement varies with method. Furthermore, free association probabilities predict extralist cued recall better than do ratings and co-occurrence statistics. The measure that most closely matches the criterion task may provide the best estimate of the identity of preexisting strength. PMID:16447386

  18. QSPR prediction of the hydroxyl radical rate constant of water contaminants.

    PubMed

    Borhani, Tohid Nejad Ghaffar; Saniedanesh, Mohammadhossein; Bagheri, Mehdi; Lim, Jeng Shiun

    2016-07-01

    In advanced oxidation processes (AOPs), the aqueous hydroxyl radical (HO) acts as a strong oxidant to react with organic contaminants. The hydroxyl radical rate constant (kHO) is important for evaluating and modelling of the AOPs. In this study, quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) method is applied to model the hydroxyl radical rate constant for a diverse dataset of 457 water contaminants from 27 various chemical classes. The constricted binary particle swarm optimization and multiple-linear regression (BPSO-MLR) are used to obtain the best model with eight theoretical descriptors. An optimized feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed to investigate the complex performance of the selected molecular parameters with kHO. Although the FFNN prediction results are more accurate than those obtained using BPSO-MLR, the application of the latter is much more convenient. Various internal and external validation techniques indicate that the obtained models could predict the logarithmic hydroxyl radical rate constants of a large number of water contaminants with less than 4% absolute relative error. Finally, the above-mentioned proposed models are compared to those reported earlier and the structural factors contributing to the AOP degradation efficiency are discussed. PMID:27124124

  19. Nonparametric Hammerstein model based model predictive control for heart rate regulation.

    PubMed

    Su, Steven W; Huang, Shoudong; Wang, Lu; Celler, Branko G; Savkin, Andrey V; Guo, Ying; Cheng, Teddy

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposed a novel nonparametric model based model predictive control approach for the regulation of heart rate during treadmill exercise. As the model structure of human cardiovascular system is often hard to determine, nonparametric modelling is a more realistic manner to describe complex behaviours of cardiovascular system. This paper presents a new nonparametric Hammerstein model identification approach for heart rate response modelling. Based on the pseudo-random binary sequence experiment data, we decouple the identification of linear dynamic part and input nonlinearity of the Hammerstein system. Correlation analysis is applied to acquire step response of linear dynamic component. Support Vector Regression is adopted to obtain a nonparametric description of the inverse of input static nonlinearity that is utilized to form an approximate linear model of the Hammerstein system. Based on the established model, a model predictive controller under predefined speed and acceleration constraints is designed to achieve safer treadmill exercise. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm can achieve optimal heart rate tracking performance under predefined constraints.

  20. Experimental data and theoretical predictions for the rate of electrophoretic clarification of colloidal suspensions

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, T.J.; Davis, E.J.

    2000-05-01

    An experimental and theoretical investigation of the electrophoretic clarification rate of colloidal suspensions was conducted. The suspensions included a coal-washing effluent and a model system of TiO{sub 2} particles. A parametric study of TiO{sub 2} suspensions was performed to validate and analysis of the electrophoretic motion of the clarification front formed between a clear zone and the suspension. To measure the electric field strength needed in the prediction of the location of the front, a moveable probe and salt bridge were connected to a reference electrode. Using the measured electric field strengths, it was found that the numerical solution to the unit cell electrophoresis model agrees with the measured clarification rates. For suspensions with moderately thick electric double layers and high particle volume fractions the deviations from classical Smoluchowski theory are substantial, and the numerical analysis is in somewhat better agreement with the data than a prior solution of the problem. The numerical model reduces to the predictions of previous theories as the thickness of the electric double layer decreases, and it is in good agreement with the clarification rate measured for a coal-washing effluent suspension with thin electric double layers.

  1. Assessment of reaction-rate predictions of a collision-energy approach for chemical reactions in atmospheric flows.

    SciTech Connect

    Gallis, Michail A.; Bond, Ryan Bomar; Torczynski, John Robert

    2010-06-01

    A recently proposed approach for the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to calculate chemical-reaction rates is assessed for high-temperature atmospheric species. The new DSMC model reproduces measured equilibrium reaction rates without using any macroscopic reaction-rate information. Since it uses only molecular properties, the new model is inherently able to predict reaction rates for arbitrary non-equilibrium conditions. DSMC non-equilibrium reaction rates are compared to Park's phenomenological nonequilibrium reaction-rate model, the predominant model for hypersonic-flow-field calculations. For near-equilibrium conditions, Park's model is in good agreement with the DSMC-calculated reaction rates. For far-from-equilibrium conditions, corresponding to a typical shock layer, significant differences can be found. The DSMC predictions are also found to be in very good agreement with measured and calculated non-equilibrium reaction rates, offering strong evidence that this is a viable and reliable technique to predict chemical reaction rates.

  2. Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Strzepek, K; Lele, S; Hedden, M; Greene, S; Noden, B; Hay, S I; Kalkstein, L; Beier, J C

    1998-10-01

    While malaria transmission varies seasonally, large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters, biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian, Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian, Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability, compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus, soil moisture explained 32% variability, peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of An. gambiae EIR, peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r2 = -0.20, and minimum temperature r2 = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling are compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Niño forecasts or global climate change model projections.

  3. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  4. Higher thyroid hormone receptor expression correlates with short larval periods in spadefoot toads and increases metamorphic rate.

    PubMed

    Hollar, Amy R; Choi, Jinyoung; Grimm, Adam T; Buchholz, Daniel R

    2011-08-01

    Spadefoot toad species display extreme variation in larval period duration, due in part to evolution of thyroid hormone (TH) physiology. Specifically, desert species with short larval periods have higher tail tissue content of TH and exhibit increased responsiveness to TH. To address the molecular basis of larval period differences, we examined TH receptor (TR) expression across species. Based on the dual function model for the role of TR in development, we hypothesized that desert spadefoot species with short larval periods would have (1) late onset of TR expression prior to the production of endogenous TH and (2) higher TR levels when endogenous TH becomes available. To test these hypotheses, we cloned fragments of TRα and TRβ genes from the desert spadefoot toads Scaphiopus couchii and Spea multiplicata and their non-desert relative Pelobates cultripes and measured their mRNA levels in tails using quantitative PCR in the absence (premetamorphosis) or presence (natural metamorphosis) of TH. All species express TRα and TRβ from the earliest stages measured (from just after hatching), but S. couchii, which has the shortest larval period, had more TRα throughout development compared to P. cultripes, which has the longest larval period. TRβ mRNA levels were similar across species. Exogenous T3 treatment induced faster TH-response gene expression kinetics in S. couchii compared to the other species, consistent with its higher TRα mRNA expression and indicative of a functional consequence of more TRα activity at the molecular level. To directly test whether higher TRα expression may contribute to shorter larval periods, we overexpressed TRα via plasmid injection into tail muscle cells of the model frog Xenopus laevis and found an increased rate of muscle cell death in response to TH. These results suggest that increased TRα expression evolved in S. couchii and contribute to its higher metamorphic rates.

  5. Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

  6. Reduced Heart Rate Variability Predicts Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes and Controls Without Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Ticiana C.; Ehrlich, James; Hunter, Cortney M.; Kinney, Gregory L.; Rewers, Marian

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Aim Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is a manifestation of cardiac autonomic neuropathy, a known complication of type 1 diabetes (T1D). We evaluated whether HRV predicted coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression. Methods Subjects between 19 and 56 years of age with T1D or those without diabetes from the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes study underwent supine deep breathing 12-lead electrocardiograms. The SD of consecutive RR intervals was used as a measure of HRV. CAC was measured at two visits 6.0 ± 0.5 years apart. Progression of CAC was defined as an increase in square root transformed CAC volume of ≥2.5 mm3, excluding patients who had cardiovascular events during follow-up. Results Reduced HRV was associated with older age, higher hemoglobin A1c, elevated albuminuria, CAC volume at baseline, and increased fibrinogen. Higher HRV at baseline was associated with lower likelihood CAC progression (odds ratio = 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.56–0.90, P = 0.005), and the adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors did not change this strong association, including adjustment for inflammatory markers. Conclusions Reduced HRV predicted progression of CAC in adults with and without T1D. This association further supports the participation of autonomic neuropathy in the atherosclerosis process. PMID:21128843

  7. First principle prediction of shallow defect level binding energies and deep level nonradiative recombination rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Linwang

    2014-03-01

    Accurate calculation of defect level energies in semiconductors and their carrier capturing rate is an important issue in ab initio prediction of semiconductor properties. In this talk, I will present our result work in ab initio shallow level calculation and deep level caused nonradiative recombination rate calculation. In the shallow acceptor level calculation, a large system up to 64,000 atoms needs to be used to properly describe the weakly bounded hole wave functions. The single particle Hamiltonian of that system is patched from bulk potential and central potential. Furthermore, GW calculation is used to correct the one site potential of the impurity atom. The resulting binding energy agrees excellently with the experiments within 10 meV. To calculate the nonradiative decay rate, the electron-phonon coupling constants in the defect system are calculated all at once using a new variational algorithm. Multiphonon process formalism is used to calculate the nonradiative decay rate. It is found that the transition is induced by the electron and the optical phonon coupling, but the energy conservation is mostly satisfied by the acoustic phonons. The new algorithm allows fast calculation of such nonradiative decay rate for any defect levels, as well as other multiphonon processes in nanostructures. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Science (BES)/Materials Science and Engineering Division (MSED) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

  8. Designing safer chemicals: Predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes

    SciTech Connect

    Yin, H.; Anders, M.W.; Higgins, L.

    1995-11-21

    A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts that rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies ({Delta}H{sub act}) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: (rate, human CYP2E1) = 44.99 - 1.79 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.86; In (rate, human Cyp2E1)= 46399 -1.77 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. 41 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  9. Prediction of in situ root decomposition rates in an interspecific context from chemical and morphological traits

    PubMed Central

    Aulen, Maurice; Shipley, Bill; Bradley, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Background and Aims We quantitatively relate in situ root decomposition rates of a wide range of trees and herbs used in agroforestry to root chemical and morphological traits in order to better describe carbon fluxes from roots to the soil carbon pool across a diverse group of plant species. Methods In situ root decomposition rates were measured over an entire year by an intact core method on ten tree and seven herb species typical of agroforestry systems and were quantified using decay constants (k values) from Olson's single exponential model. Decay constants were related to root chemical (total carbon, nitrogen, soluble carbon, cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin) and morphological (specific root length, specific root length) traits. Traits were measured for both absorbing and non-absorbing roots. Key Results From 61 to 77 % of the variation in the different root traits and 63 % of that in root decomposition rates was interspecific. N was positively correlated, but total carbon and lignin were negatively correlated with k values. Initial root traits accounted for 75 % of the variation in interspecific decomposition rates using partial least squares regressions; partial slopes attributed to each trait were consistent with functional ecology expectations. Conclusions Easily measured initial root traits can be used to predict rates of root decomposition in soils in an interspecific context. PMID:22003237

  10. On modelling the Fast Radio Burst population and event rate predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bera, Apurba; Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Bhat, N. D. Ramesh; Chengalur, Jayaram N.

    2016-04-01

    Assuming that Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) are of extragalactic origin, we have developed a formalism to predict the FRB detection rate and the redshift distribution of the detected events for a telescope with given parameters. We have adopted FRB 110220, for which the emitted pulse energy is estimated to be E0 = 5.4 × 1033 J, as the reference event. The formalism requires us to assume models for (a) pulse broadening due to scattering in the ionized intergalactic medium - we consider two different models for this, (b) the frequency spectrum of the emitted pulse - we consider a power-law model Eν ∝ ν-α with -5 ≤ α ≤ 5, and (c) the comoving number density of the FRB occurrence rate n(E, wi, z) - we ignore the z dependence and assume a fixed intrinsic pulse width wi = 1 ms for all the FRBs. The distribution of the emitted pulse energy E is modelled through (a) a delta function where all the FRBs have the same energy E = E0, and (b) a Schechter luminosity function where the energies have a spread around E0. The models are all normalized using the four FRBs detected by Thornton et al. Our model predictions for the Parkes telescope are all consistent with the inferred redshift distribution of the 14 FRBs detected there to date. We also find that scattering places an upper limit on the redshift of the FRBs detectable by a given telescope; for the Parkes telescope, this is z ˜ 2. Considering the upcoming Ooty Wide Field Array, we predict an FRB detection rate of ˜0.01 to ˜103 d-1.

  11. Flower vs. Leaf Feeding by Pieris brassicae: Glucosinolate-Rich Flower Tissues are Preferred and Sustain Higher Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Smallegange, R. C.; Blatt, S. E.; Harvey, J. A.; Agerbirk, N.; Dicke, M.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions between butterflies and caterpillars in the genus Pieris and plants in the family Brassicaceae are among the best explored in the field of insect–plant biology. However, we report here for the first time that Pieris brassicae, commonly assumed to be a typical folivore, actually prefers to feed on flowers of three Brassica nigra genotypes rather than on their leaves. First- and second-instar caterpillars were observed to feed primarily on leaves, whereas late second and early third instars migrated via the small leaves of the flower branches to the flower buds and flowers. Once flower feeding began, no further leaf feeding was observed. We investigated growth rates of caterpillars having access exclusively to either leaves of flowering plants or flowers. In addition, we analyzed glucosinolate concentrations in leaves and flowers. Late-second- and early-third-instar P. brassicae caterpillars moved upward into the inflorescences of B. nigra and fed on buds and flowers until the end of the final (fifth) instar, after which they entered into the wandering stage, leaving the plant in search of a pupation site. Flower feeding sustained a significantly higher growth rate than leaf feeding. Flowers contained levels of glucosinolates up to five times higher than those of leaves. Five glucosinolates were identified: the aliphatic sinigrin, the aromatic phenyethylglucosinolate, and three indole glucosinolates: glucobrassicin, 4-methoxyglucobrassicin, and 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin. Tissue type and genotype were the most important factors affecting levels of identified glucosinolates. Sinigrin was by far the most abundant compound in all three genotypes. Sinigrin, 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin, and phenylethylglucosinolate were present at significantly higher levels in flowers than in leaves. In response to caterpillar feeding, sinigrin levels in both leaves and flowers were significantly higher than in undamaged plants, whereas 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin leaf levels were

  12. Does slow embryo development predict a high aneuploidy rate on trophectoderm biopsy?

    PubMed

    Piccolomini, Mariana M; Nicolielo, Mariana; Bonetti, Tatiana C S; Motta, Eduardo L A; Serafini, Paulo C; Alegretti, Jose Roberto

    2016-09-01

    The aneuploidy rates in expanded blastocysts biopsied on days 5 and 6 development were assessed in women undergoing IVF followed by array comparative genomic hybridization. This study included 1171 expanded blastocysts from 465 patients. Among the 465 patients, 215 and 141 underwent embryo biopsy on day 5 and day 6 (46.2% and 30.3%, respectively), and 109 underwent biopsy on both days 5 and 6 (23.4%). The cycles of 206 women were cancelled because only aneuploidy embryos were present (44.3%). The aneuploid embryos were classified according to the type as single, double or complex aneuploidy. No differences were observed in the distributions of these three categories according to the day of the biopsy. The aneuploidy rate was also evaluated according to maternal age, and was found to be higher in older patients; however, no differences in this rate were detected between embryos biopsied on days 5 and 6 according to maternal age. Biopsy was carried out when blastocysts reached the expanded stage. The embryos biopsied on day 6 had a higher rate of aneuploidy (69.9%) than those biopsied on day 5 (61.4%); however, the euploid embryos transferred had similar chances for successful and healthy gestation. PMID:27377770

  13. Using CFD Techniques to Predict Slosh Force Frequency and Damping Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Gangadharan, Sathya; Chatman, Yadira; Sudermann, James

    2009-01-01

    Resonant effects and energy dissipation due to sloshing fuel inside propellant tanks are problems that arise in the initial design of any spacecraft or launch vehicle. A faster and more reliable method for calculating these effects during the design stages is needed. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques, a model of these fuel tanks can be created and used to predict important parameters such as resonant slosh frequency and damping rate. This initial study addresses the case of free surface slosh. Future studies will focus on creating models for tanks fitted with propellant management devices (PMD) such as diaphragms and baffles.

  14. PAN AIR - A higher order panel method for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flows about arbitrary configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carmichael, R. L.; Erickson, L. L.

    1981-01-01

    PAN AIR is a computer program for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flow about arbitrary configurations. It uses linear source and quadratic doublet strength distributions. These higher-order distributions have been implemented in a manner that greatly reduces the numerical stability problems that have plagued earlier attempts to make surface paneling methods work successfully for supersonic flow. PAN AIR's problem-solving capability, numerical approach, modeling features, and program architecture are described. Numerical results are presented for a variety of geometries at supersonic Mach numbers.

  15. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  16. Predicting the capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal independently of the astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero-Garcia, Juan

    2016-05-01

    The goal of the works on which this talk is based is to relate a direct detection signal with neutrino limits from the Sun independently of the astrophysics. In order to achieve this we derive a halo-independent lower bound on the dark matter capture rate in the Sun from a direct detection signal, with which one can set upper limits on the branching ratios into different channels from the absence of a high-energy neutrino flux in neutrino observatories. We also extend this bound to the case of inelastic scattering, both endothermic and exothermic. From two inelastic signals we show how the dark matter mass, the mass difference of the states and the couplings to neutrons and protons can be obtained. Furthermore, one can also pin down the exothermic/endothermic nature of the scattering, and therefore a precise lower bound on the solar capture rate is predicted. We also discuss isospin violation and uncertainties due to form factors.

  17. Higher rate of fat oxidation during rowing compared with cycling ergometer exercise across a range of exercise intensities.

    PubMed

    Egan, B; Ashley, D T; Kennedy, E; O'Connor, P L; O'Gorman, D J

    2016-06-01

    The relative contribution of carbohydrate and fat oxidation to energy expenditure during exercise is dependent on variables including exercise intensity, mode, and recruited muscle mass. This study investigated patterns of substrate utilization during two non-weightbearing exercise modalities, namely cycling and rowing. Thirteen young, moderately trained males performed a continuous incremental (3-min stages) exercise test to exhaustion on separate occasions on an electronically braked cycle (CYC) ergometer and an air-braked rowing (ROW) ergometer, respectively. On two further occasions, participants performed a 20-min steady-state exercise bout at ∼50%VO2peak on the respective modalities. Despite similar oxygen consumption, rates of fat oxidation (FATox ) were ∼45% higher during ROW compared with CYC (P < 0.05) across a range of power output increments. The crossover point for substrate utilization occurred at a higher relative exercise intensity for ROW than CYC (57.8 ± 2.1 vs 42.1 ± 3.6%VO2peak , P < 0.05). During steady-state submaximal exercise, the higher FATox during ROW compared with CYC was maintained (P < 0.05), but absolute FATox were 42% (CYC) and 28% (ROW) lower than during incremental exercise. FATox is higher during ROW compared with CYC exercise across a range of exercise intensities matched for energy expenditure, and is likely as a consequence of larger muscle mass recruited during ROW.

  18. Higher recovery rate of microorganisms from cerebrospinal fluid samples by the BACTEC culture system in comparison with agar culture.

    PubMed

    Calderaro, Adriana; Martinelli, Monica; Montecchini, Sara; Motta, Federica; Covan, Silvia; Larini, Sandra; Medici, Maria Cristina; Arcangeletti, Maria Cristina; Chezzi, Carlo; De Conto, Flora

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic value of the BACTEC FX blood culture (BC) system as compared to the agar culture (AC) of cerebrospinal fluid samples (CSF), evaluating the recovery rate and the time to detection of microorganisms in a 3.5-year period. From December 2011 to May 2015, 1326 CSF samples (694 patients) were submitted to both AC and BC. Among the 150 positive samples (96 patients), 165 microorganisms were detected: 81 by both the protocols, 77 by BC alone, and 7 by AC alone, demonstrating a higher detection rate of BC (95.8%) than AC (53.3%). Although BC presents some disadvantages, it is able to improve the yield of clinically significant microorganisms, and it could potentially reduce the reporting time as compared to AC. The results obtained highlighted the necessity of a combined approach for the successful detection of central nervous system microbial infections. PMID:26867963

  19. Quantum reaction rate from higher derivatives of the thermal flux-flux autocorrelation function at time zero.

    PubMed

    Ceotto, Michele; Yang, Sandy; Miller, William H

    2005-01-22

    A quantum theory of thermal reaction rates is presented which may be viewed as an extension of the recently developed "quantum instanton" (QI) model [W. H. Miller, Y. Zhao, M. Ceotto, and S. Yang, J. Chem. Phys. 119, 1329 (2003)]. It is based on using higher derivatives of the flux-flux autocorrelation function C(t) (as given by Miller, Schwartz, and Tromp) at t=0 to construct a short time approximation for C(t). Tests of this theory on 1d and collinear reactions, both symmetric and asymmetric, show it to be more accurate than the original QI model, giving rate constants to approximately 5% for a wide range of temperature. PMID:15740237

  20. Quantum reaction rate from higher derivatives of the thermal flux-flux autocorrelation function at time zero

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceotto, Michele; Yang, Sandy; Miller, William H.

    2005-01-01

    A quantum theory of thermal reaction rates is presented which may be viewed as an extension of the recently developed "quantum instanton" (QI) model [W. H. Miller, Y. Zhao, M. Ceotto, and S. Yang, J. Chem. Phys. 119, 1329 (2003)]. It is based on using higher derivatives of the flux-flux autocorrelation function C(t) (as given by Miller, Schwartz, and Tromp) at t=0 to construct a short time approximation for C(t). Tests of this theory on 1d and collinear reactions, both symmetric and asymmetric, show it to be more accurate than the original QI model, giving rate constants to ˜5% for a wide range of temperature.

  1. Higher recovery rate of microorganisms from cerebrospinal fluid samples by the BACTEC culture system in comparison with agar culture.

    PubMed

    Calderaro, Adriana; Martinelli, Monica; Montecchini, Sara; Motta, Federica; Covan, Silvia; Larini, Sandra; Medici, Maria Cristina; Arcangeletti, Maria Cristina; Chezzi, Carlo; De Conto, Flora

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic value of the BACTEC FX blood culture (BC) system as compared to the agar culture (AC) of cerebrospinal fluid samples (CSF), evaluating the recovery rate and the time to detection of microorganisms in a 3.5-year period. From December 2011 to May 2015, 1326 CSF samples (694 patients) were submitted to both AC and BC. Among the 150 positive samples (96 patients), 165 microorganisms were detected: 81 by both the protocols, 77 by BC alone, and 7 by AC alone, demonstrating a higher detection rate of BC (95.8%) than AC (53.3%). Although BC presents some disadvantages, it is able to improve the yield of clinically significant microorganisms, and it could potentially reduce the reporting time as compared to AC. The results obtained highlighted the necessity of a combined approach for the successful detection of central nervous system microbial infections.

  2. A supply-based concentration rating curve to predict total phosphorus concentrations in the Rhine River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van der Perk, M.; Vogels, M. F. A.

    2012-04-01

    ) at the Lobith-Bimmen monitoring station at the German-Dutch border between 1 April 2004 and 20 July 2010. The model parameters were calibrated by a step-wise procedure which involved in some steps visual calibration (e.g. concentration amplitude, critical discharge for erosion/deposition) and in other steps regression analysis (e.g. long-term linear trend, power law rating curve). The total phosphorus concentrations show a long-term linear decrease of 1.0 - 10-5 mg l-1 d-1. The amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation in phosphorus concentration was estimated to be 0.03 mg l-1. The critical discharge for erosion and deposition was estimated to be 1900 m s-1, the increase in phosphorus stock during deposition periods 9300 kg d-1, and the supply from the phosphorus stock to the river water 32 kg d-1per m3 s excess discharge. The squared Pearson's correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted total phosphorus increased from 0.16 for the traditional power-law concentration rating curve (Nash's efficiency coefficient = 0.13) to 0.36 for the supply-based rating curve (Nash's efficiency coefficient = 0.34). This implies that inclusion of the long-term and seasonal trends and a discharge dependent supply and loss term considerably enhances the performance and predictive power of the concentration rating curve model. As the response to changes in discharge is different for dissolved and particulate total phosphorus, a further improvement of model performance can likely be achieved by deriving separate concentration rating curves for dissolved total phosphorus and sediment-associated phosphorus.

  3. Higher Rate of Tuberculosis in Second Generation Migrants Compared to Native Residents in a Metropolitan Setting in Western Europe

    PubMed Central

    Marx, Florian M.; Fiebig, Lena; Hauer, Barbara; Brodhun, Bonita; Glaser-Paschke, Gisela; Haas, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Background In Western Europe, migrants constitute an important risk group for tuberculosis, but little is known about successive generations of migrants. We aimed to characterize migration among tuberculosis cases in Berlin and to estimate annual rates of tuberculosis in two subsequent migrant generations. We hypothesized that second generation migrants born in Germany are at higher risk of tuberculosis compared to native (non-migrant) residents. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted. All tuberculosis cases reported to health authorities in Berlin between 11/2010 and 10/2011 were eligible. Interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire including demographic data, migration history of patients and their parents, and language use. Tuberculosis rates were estimated using 2011 census data. Results Of 314 tuberculosis cases reported, 154 (49.0%) participated. Of these, 81 (52.6%) were first-, 14 (9.1%) were second generation migrants, and 59 (38.3%) were native residents. The tuberculosis rate per 100,000 individuals was 28.3 (95CI: 24.0–32.6) in first-, 10.2 (95%CI: 6.1–16.6) in second generation migrants, and 4.6 (95%CI: 3.7–5.6) in native residents. When combining information from the standard notification variables country of birth and citizenship, the sensitivity to detect second generation migration was 28.6%. Conclusions There is a higher rate of tuberculosis among second generation migrants compared to native residents in Berlin. This may be explained by presumably frequent contact and transmission within migrant populations. Second generation migration is insufficiently captured by the surveillance variables country of birth and citizenship. Surveillance systems in Western Europe should allow for quantifying the tuberculosis burden in this important risk group. PMID:26061733

  4. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  5. A different approach for predicting H(2)S((g)) emission rates in gravity sewers.

    PubMed

    Lahav, Ori; Sagiv, Amitai; Friedler, Eran

    2006-01-01

    All detrimental phenomena (mal odors, metal corrosion, concrete disintegration, health hazard) associated with hydrogen sulfide in gravity sewers depend on the rate of H(2)S emission from the aqueous phase to the gas phase of the pipe. In this paper a different approach for predicting H(2)S((g)) emission rates from gravity sewers is presented, using concepts adapted from mixing theory. The mean velocity gradient (G=gamma SV/micro; S is the slope, V the mean velocity), representing mixing conditions in gravity flow, was used to quantify the rate of H(2)S((g)) emission in part-full gravity sewers. Based on this approach an emission equation was developed. The equation was verified and calibrated by performing 20 experiments in a 27-m gravity-flow experimental-sewer (D=0.16 m) at various hydraulic conditions. Results indicate a clear dependency of the sulfide stripping-rate on G(1) (R(2)=0.94) with the following overall emission equation: where S(T) is the total sulfide concentration in the aqueous phase, mg/L; w the flow surface width, m; A(cs) the cross-sectional area, m(2); T the temperature, degrees C; K(H) the Henry's constant, molL(-1)atm(-1); and P(pH2S) the partial pressure of H(2)S((g)) in the sewer atmosphere, atm.

  6. Validity of heart rate, pedometry, and accelerometry for predicting the energy cost of children's activities.

    PubMed

    Eston, R G; Rowlands, A V; Ingledew, D K

    1998-01-01

    Heart rate telemetry is frequently used to estimate daily activity in children and to validate other methods. This study compared the accuracy of heart rate monitoring, pedometry, triaxial accelerometry, and uniaxial accelerometry for estimating oxygen consumption during typical children's activities. Thirty Welsh children (mean age 9.2 +/- 0.8 yr) walked (4 and 6 km/h) and ran (8 and 10 km/h) on a treadmill, played catch, played hopscotch, and sat and crayoned. Heart rate, body accelerations in three axes, pedometry counts, and oxygen uptake were measured continuously during each 4-min activity. Oxygen uptake was expressed as a ratio of body mass raised to the power of 0.75 [scaled oxygen uptake (sVO2)]. All measures correlated significantly (P < 0.001) with sVO2. A multiple-regression equation that included triaxial accelerometry counts and heart rate predicted sVO2 better than any measure alone (R2 = 0.85, standard error of the estimate = 9.7 ml.kg-0.75.min-1). The best of the single measures was triaxial accelerometry (R2 = 0.83, standard error of the estimate = 10.3 ml.kg-0.75.min-1). It is concluded that a triaxial accelerometer provides the best assessment of activity. Pedometry offers potential for large population studies.

  7. The enigma of higher income immigrants with lower rates of health insurance coverage in the United States.

    PubMed

    Bass, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This research compares rates of health insurance coverage among middle-class non-elderly immigrants to native-born American adults using data from the March 1996-2000 Supplements to the Current Population Survey. Probit regressions reveal that immigrants were three times as likely to be uninsured at income levels exceeding $50,000, controlling for economic, demographic and immigrant-related characteristics. Work-related characteristics, income, martial status and nativity considerably influenced health insurance status for all adults, but work-related factors had the strongest effect on immigrants' rates of coverage. Why, ceteris paribus, immigrants have lower coverage rates is unclear. Many low-income and recent immigrants face barriers to access due to legal status or job sector. But lower rates of health insurance coverage which persist among long-time residents at higher income levels cannot be explained by such barriers, a finding highly relevant for policy makers. Encouraging uninsured immigrants to opt into health plans voluntarily will remain a challenge. PMID:19834995

  8. Thin Slice Ratings of Client Characteristics in Intake Assessments: Predicting Symptom Change and Dropout in Cognitive Therapy for Depression

    PubMed Central

    Sasso, Katherine E.; Strunk, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    Thin slice ratings of personality have been shown to predict a number of outcomes, but have yet to be examined in the context of psychotherapy. In a sample of 66 clients participating in cognitive therapy for depression, we examined the predictive utility of thin slice rated pre-treatment client traits. On the basis of short video clip excerpts (i.e., thin slices) of intake assessments, trained observers rated clients on personality characteristics and specific personality disorder (PD) traits. Clients’ therapy interest and neuroticism predicted lower odds of dropout. Ratings of extraversion predicted greater symptom change across treatment; ratings of clients’ Avoidant and Schizoid PD traits predicted less marked symptom improvement. Ratings of agreeableness and likeability also predicted greater symptom change, but these relations were only significant in one of two analytic approaches used. Evidence for the predictive validity of thin slice ratings was generally stronger than that observed for self-reported PD traits and PD status. Moreover, these self-report and diagnostic assessments failed to account for the thin slice-outcome relations identified. Findings support the clinical utility of quick, thin slice impressions of clients, as these ratings could be used to identify clients with a high risk of dropout or poor treatment outcome. PMID:23747583

  9. Higher diet quality does not predict lower Medicare costs but does predict number of claims in mid-aged Australian women.

    PubMed

    Collins, Clare E; Patterson, Amanda; Fitzgerald, David

    2011-01-01

    Optimal dietary quality, indicated by higher diet quality index scores, reflects greater adherence to National dietary recommendations and is also associated with lower morbidity and mortality from chronic disease. Whether this is reflected in lower health care cost over time has rarely been examined. The aim of this study was to examine whether higher diet quality, as measured by the Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS), was associated with lower health care costs within the mid-aged cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. We found that there was a statistically significant association between five year cumulative costs and ARFS, but in the opposite direction to that predicted, with those in the highest quintiles of ARFS having higher health care costs. However the number of Medicare claims over the six year period (2002-2007) was lower for those in the highest compared with the lowest quintile, p = 0.002. There is a need to monitor both costs and claims over time to examine health care usage in the longer term in order to determine whether savings are eventually obtained for those with the dietary patterns that adhere more closely to National recommendations.

  10. Formation rates, stability and reactivity of sulfuric acid - amine clusters predicted by computational chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurtén, Theo; Ortega, Ismael; Kupiainen, Oona; Olenius, Tinja; Loukonen, Ville; Reiman, Heidi; McGrath, Matthew; Vehkamäki, Hanna

    2013-04-01

    Despite the importance of atmospheric particle formation for both climate and air quality, both experiments and non-empirical models using e.g. sulfuric acid, ammonia and water as condensing vapors have so far been unable to reproduce atmospheric observations using realistic trace gas concentrations. Recent experimental and theoretical evidence has shown that this mystery is likely resolved by amines. Combining first-principles evaporation rates for sulfuric acid - dimethylamine clusters with cluster kinetic modeling, we show that even sub-ppt concentrations of amines, together with atmospherically realistic concentrations of sulfuric acid, result in formation rates close to those observed in the atmosphere. Our simulated cluster formation rates are also close to, though somewhat larger than, those measured at the CLOUD experiment in CERN for both sulfuric acid - ammonia and sulfuric acid - dimethylamine systems. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the remaining discrepancy for the sulfuric acid - amine particle formation rates is likely caused by steric hindrances to cluster formation (due to alkyl groups of the amine molecules) rather than by significant errors in the evaporation rates. First-principles molecular dynamic and reaction kinetic modeling shed further light on the microscopic physics and chemistry of sulfuric acid - amine clusters. For example, while the number and type of hydrogen bonds in the clusters typically reach their equilibrium values on a picosecond timescale, and the overall bonding patterns predicted by traditional "static" quantum chemical calculations seem to be stable, the individual atoms participating in the hydrogen bonds continuously change at atmospherically realistic temperatures. From a chemical reactivity perspective, we have also discovered a surprising phenomenon: clustering with sulfuric acid molecules slightly increases the activation energy required for the abstraction of alkyl hydrogens from amine molecules. This implies

  11. Clinical Dementia Rating Performed Several Years prior to Death Predicts Regional Alzheimer’s Neuropathology

    PubMed Central

    Beeri, Michal Schnaider; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Schmeidler, James; Wysocki, Michael; Grossman, Hillel Z.; Purohit, Dushyant P.; Perl, Daniel P.; Haroutunian, Vahram

    2011-01-01

    Aims To assess the relationships between early and late antemortem measures of dementia severity and Alzheimer disease (AD) neuropathology severity. Methods 40 residents of a nursing home, average age at death 82.0, participated in this longitudinal cohort study with postmortem assessment. Severity of dementia was measured by Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) at two time points, averaging 4.5 and 1.0 years before death. Densities of postmortem neuritic plaques (NPs) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) were measured in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, and entorhinal cortex. Results For most brain areas, both early and late CDRs were significantly associated with NPs and NFTs. CDRs assessed proximal to death predicted NFTs beyond the contribution of early CDRs. NPs were predicted by both early and late CDRs. NPs were predictive of both early and late CDRs after controlling for NFTs. NFTs were only associated significantly with late CDR in the cerebral cortex after controlling for NPs. Conclusions Even if assessed several years before death, dementia severity is associated with AD neuropathology. NPs are more strongly associated with dementia severity than NFTs. NFTs consistently associate better with late than early CDR, suggesting that these neuropathological changes may occur relatively later in the course of the disease. PMID:18367838

  12. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  13. A general procedure for predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing mass selection.

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, P; Van Arendonk, J A; Woolliams, J A

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of rates of inbreeding (DeltaF), based on the concept of long-term genetic contributions assuming the infinitesimal model, are developed for populations with discrete or overlapping generations undergoing mass selection. Phenotypes of individuals are assumed to be recorded prior to reproductive age and to remain constant over time. The prediction method accounts for inheritance of selective advantage both within and between age classes and for changing selection intensities with age. Terms corresponding to previous methods that assume constant selection intensity with age are identified. Predictions are accurate (relative errors < or =8%), except for cases with extreme selection intensities in females in combination with high heritability. With overlapping generations DeltaF reaches a maximum when parents are equally distributed over age classes, which is mainly due to selection of the same individuals in consecutive years. DeltaF/year decreases much more slowly compared to DeltaF/generation as the number of younger individuals increases, whereas the decrease is more similar as the number of older individuals increases. The minimum DeltaF (per year or per generation) is obtained when most parents were in the later age classes, which is mainly due to an increased number of parents per generation. With overlapping generations, the relationship between heritability and DeltaF is dependent on the age structure of the population. PMID:10747075

  14. Prediction of viscoelastic material functions from constant stress- or strain-rate experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saprunov, Ivan; Gergesova, Marina; Emri, Igor

    2014-05-01

    To predict durability of polymeric structures an information on polymer's long-term properties in the form of relaxation modulus and/or creep compliance is required. It is well known that determination of relaxation or creep properties from experimental data is an inverse problem, which, due to presence of experimental errors in input data, becomes ill-posed. To find a stable solution using standard integration schemes is practically impossible. In this paper we propose a "hands-on" methodology which bypasses the solution of ill-posed integral equation and allows finding long-term relaxation or creep properties from simple constant strain rate or constant stress-rate experiments performed at different temperatures. The proposed approach can be applied not only for characterization of viscoelastic materials in solid state but can also be used for prediction of time-dependent properties of polymer melts. The paper presents the detailed steps of the proposed method as well as its validation on several simulated and real experimental data. It has been shown that the proposed approach can accurately reconstruct the desired long-term time-dependent properties obtained in traditional way (i.e., from step loading).

  15. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    SciTech Connect

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; Tratnyek, Paul G.

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation by an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.

  16. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    DOE PAGES

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; Tratnyek, Paul G.

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation bymore » an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.« less

  17. Predictive equations for the estimation of basal metabolic rate in Malaysian adults.

    PubMed

    Ismail, M; Chee, S; Roslee, R; Zawiah, H

    1998-12-01

    In the field of human energy expenditure, the measurement of basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an essential element to derive energy requirement estimates for any given population. Besides basic anthropometrics data, this paper reports the generation of predictive equation for basal metabolic rates of healthy Malaysian adult from prospective measurements on 307 male and 349 females aged 18-60 years, using the Douglas bag technique. These new equations based on body-weight reveal that the current FAO/WHO/UNU (1985) predictive equations overestimate BMR of adult Malaysian by an average of 13% in males and 9% in female subjects while differences of between 4-5% were observed when compared to Henry and Rees (1991) equations for tropical people. There is a good reason to believe that the capacity to slow down metabolism amidst the hot and humid climate experience throughout the year as a genuine phenomenon for Malaysians. Similarly, these findings suggest that at equal energy intake recommendation for similar body weight, the lower energy needs of Malaysian could put them at greater risk for developing obesity. These observed deviations must be taken into account in formulating energy requirements of the population.

  18. Health Behaviors Predict Higher Interleukin-6 levels Among Patients Newly Diagnosed with Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Duffy, Sonia A.; Teknos, Theodoros; Taylor, Jeremy M.G.; Fowler, Karen E.; Islam, Mozaffarul; Wolf, Gregory T.; McLean, Scott; Ghanem, Tamer A.; Terrell, Jeffrey E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Health behaviors have been shown to be associated with recurrence risk and survival rates in cancer patients and are also associated with Interleukin-6 levels, but few epidemiologic studies have investigated the relationship of health behaviors and Interleukin-6 among cancer populations. The purpose of the study is to look at the relationship between five health behaviors: smoking, alcohol problems, body mass index (a marker of nutritional status), physical activity, and sleep and pretreatment Interleukin-6 levels in persons with head and neck cancer. Methods Patients (N=409) were recruited in otolaryngology clinic waiting rooms and invited to complete written surveys. A medical record audit was also conducted. Descriptive statistics and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine which health behaviors were associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels controlling for demographic and clinical variables among newly diagnosed head and neck cancer patients. Results While smoking, alcohol problems, body mass index, physical activity, and sleep were associated with Interleukin-6 levels in bivariate analysis, only smoking (current and former) and decreased sleep were independent predictors of higher Interleukin-6 levels in multivariate regression analysis. Covariates associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels were age and higher tumor stage, while comorbidities were marginally significant. Conclusion Health behaviors, particularly smoking and sleep disturbances, are associated with higher Interleukin-6 levels among head and neck cancer patients. Impact Treating health behavior problems, especially smoking and sleep disturbances, may be beneficial to decreasing Interleukin-6 levels which could have a beneficial effect on overall cancer treatment outcomes. PMID:23300019

  19. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    PubMed

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality. PMID:24837965

  20. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    PubMed

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality.

  1. Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers.

    PubMed

    Williams, J R; Zhang, Y; Zhou, H; Osman, M; Cha, D; Kavet, R; Cuccinotta, F; Dicello, J F; Dillehay, L E

    1999-12-01

    The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such

  2. Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, J. R.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, H.; Osman, M.; Cha, D.; Kavet, R.; Cuccinotta, F.; Dicello, J. F.; Dillehay, L. E.

    1999-01-01

    The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such

  3. Higher Calorie Diets Increase Rate of Weight Gain and Shorten Hospital Stay in Hospitalized Adolescents With Anorexia Nervosa

    PubMed Central

    Garber, Andrea K.; Mauldin, Kasuen; Michihata, Nobuaki; Buckelew, Sara M.; Shafer, Mary-Ann; Moscicki, Anna-Barbara

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Current recommendations for refeeding in anorexia nervosa (AN) are conservative, beginning around 1,200 calories to avoid refeeding syndrome. We previously showed poor weight gain and long hospital stay using this approach and hypothesized that a higher calorie approach would improve outcomes. Methods Adolescents hospitalized for malnutrition due to AN were included in this quasi-experimental study comparing lower and higher calories during refeeding. Participants enrolled between 2002 and 2012; higher calories were prescribed starting around 2008. Daily prospective measures included weight, heart rate, temperature, hydration markers and serum phosphorus. Participants received formula only to replace refused food. Percent Median Body Mass Index (% MBMI) was calculated using 50th percentile body mass index for age and sex. Unpaired t-tests compared two groups split at 1,200 calories. Results Fifty-six adolescents with mean (±SEM) age 16.2 (±.3) years and admit %MBMI 79.2% (±1.5%) were hospitalized for 14.9 (±.9) days. The only significant difference between groups (N = 28 each) at baseline was starting calories (1,764 [±60] vs. 1,093 [±28], p < .001). Participants on higher calories had faster weight gain (.46 [±.04] vs. .26 [±.03] %MBMI/day, p < .001), greater daily calorie advances (122 [±8] vs. 98 [±6], p = .024), shorter hospital stay (11.9 [±1.0] vs. 17.6 [±1.2] days, p < .001), and a greater tendency to receive phosphate supplementation (12 vs. 8 participants, p = .273). Conclusions Higher calorie diets produced faster weight gain in hospitalized adolescents with AN as compared with the currently recommended lower calorie diets. No cases of the refeeding syndrome were seen using phosphate supplementation. These findings lend further support to the move toward more aggressive refeeding in AN. PMID:24054812

  4. Parathyroid Hormone is Related to Dysplasia and a Higher Rate of Distal Colorectal Adenoma in Women but Not Men.

    PubMed

    Aigner, Elmar; Stadlmayr, Andreas; Huber-Schönauer, Ursula; Zwerina, Jochen; Husar-Memmer, Emma; Niederseer, David; Eder, Sebastian K; Stickel, Felix; Pirich, Christian; Schett, Georg; Patsch, Wolfgang; Datz, Christian

    2015-08-01

    Molecular and clinical observations provide evidence for a potential role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) in colorectal cancer development. We therefore aimed to assess the association of PTH with regard to colorectal cancer precursor lesions. A cohort of 1432 participants, 777 men, 58.4 ± 9.6 years and 701 women, 59.1 ± 10.6 years, undergoing screening colonoscopy were allocated to PTH serum concentrations either above or below 55 ng/L. The number, localization, size, and histology of the polypoid lesions detected during screening colonoscopy were recorded according to PTH serum concentrations. Serum PTH concentrations were not different between men and women. Women with PTH serum concentrations above the cut-off had significantly more adenomas (13/40; 32.5%) of the distal colon compared to women below the cut-off (91/659; 13.8%; P = 0.001). Additionally, the rate of dysplasia in adenomas of the distal colon was higher in women with high compared to low PTH concentrations (P = 0.001). These findings remained robust after adjustments for serum vitamin D, age, plasma creatinine, BMI, diabetes, and liver steatosis. No associations were observed between serum PTH concentrations and colorectal lesions in men. These data suggest that elevated PTH serum concentrations might have a role in colorectal cancer development as indicated by higher rates of adenomas, specifically with dysplasia, in women. The role of PTH in colon carcinogenesis and its sex specificity deserve further study. PMID:26021763

  5. High Emergency Lung Transplantation: dramatic decrease of waiting list death rate without relevant higher post-transplant mortality.

    PubMed

    Roux, Antoine; Beaumont-Azuar, Laurence; Hamid, Abdul Monem; De Miranda, Sandra; Grenet, Dominique; Briend, Guillaume; Bonnette, Pierre; Puyo, Philippe; Parquin, François; Devaquet, Jerome; Trebbia, Gregoire; Cuquemelle, Elise; Douvry, Benoit; Picard, Clément; Le Guen, Morgan; Chapelier, Alain; Stern, Marc; Sage, Edouard

    2015-09-01

    Many candidates for lung transplantation (LT) die on the waiting list, raising the question of graft availability and strategy for organ allocation. We report the experience of the new organ allocation program, "High Emergency Lung Transplantation" (HELT), since its implementation in our center in 2007. Retrospective analysis of 201 lung transplant patients, of whom 37 received HELT from 1st July 2007 to 31th May 2012. HELT candidates had a higher impairment grade on respiratory status and higher Lung Allocation Score (LAS). HELT patients had increased incidence of perioperative complications (e.g., perioperative bleeding) and extracorporeal circulatory assistance (75% vs. 36.6%, P = 0.0005). No significant difference was observed between HELT and non-HELT patients in mechanical ventilation duration (15.5 days vs. 11 days, P = 0.27), intensive care unit length of stay (15 days vs. 10 days, P = 0.22) or survival rate at 12 (81% vs. 80%), and 24 months post-LT (72.9% vs. 75.0%). Lastly, mortality on the waiting list was spectacularly reduced from 19% to 2% when compared to the non-HELT 2004-2007 group. Despite a more severe clinical status of patients on the waiting list, HELT provided similar results to conventional LT. These results were associated with a dramatic reduction in the mortality rate of patients on the waiting list.

  6. Parathyroid Hormone is Related to Dysplasia and a Higher Rate of Distal Colorectal Adenoma in Women but Not Men.

    PubMed

    Aigner, Elmar; Stadlmayr, Andreas; Huber-Schönauer, Ursula; Zwerina, Jochen; Husar-Memmer, Emma; Niederseer, David; Eder, Sebastian K; Stickel, Felix; Pirich, Christian; Schett, Georg; Patsch, Wolfgang; Datz, Christian

    2015-08-01

    Molecular and clinical observations provide evidence for a potential role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) in colorectal cancer development. We therefore aimed to assess the association of PTH with regard to colorectal cancer precursor lesions. A cohort of 1432 participants, 777 men, 58.4 ± 9.6 years and 701 women, 59.1 ± 10.6 years, undergoing screening colonoscopy were allocated to PTH serum concentrations either above or below 55 ng/L. The number, localization, size, and histology of the polypoid lesions detected during screening colonoscopy were recorded according to PTH serum concentrations. Serum PTH concentrations were not different between men and women. Women with PTH serum concentrations above the cut-off had significantly more adenomas (13/40; 32.5%) of the distal colon compared to women below the cut-off (91/659; 13.8%; P = 0.001). Additionally, the rate of dysplasia in adenomas of the distal colon was higher in women with high compared to low PTH concentrations (P = 0.001). These findings remained robust after adjustments for serum vitamin D, age, plasma creatinine, BMI, diabetes, and liver steatosis. No associations were observed between serum PTH concentrations and colorectal lesions in men. These data suggest that elevated PTH serum concentrations might have a role in colorectal cancer development as indicated by higher rates of adenomas, specifically with dysplasia, in women. The role of PTH in colon carcinogenesis and its sex specificity deserve further study.

  7. Lower glomerular filtration rate is associated with higher systemic vascular resistance in patients without prevalent kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Vääräniemi, Kati; Koskela, Jenni; Tahvanainen, Anna; Tikkakoski, Antti; Wilenius, Matias; Kähönen, Mika; Kööbi, Tiit; Niemelä, Onni; Mustonen, Jukka; Pörsti, Ilkka

    2014-10-01

    The authors examined the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine-cystatin C equation, and hemodynamics in 556 normotensive or never-treated hypertensive patients without kidney disease (mean age, 46 years). Hemodynamic variables were recorded using pulse wave analysis and whole-body impedance cardiography. The mean eGFR was 98 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (range, 64-145 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and one third of the patients had values below 92, while none had proteinuria. In linear regression analyses adjusted for differences in age, weight:height ratio, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and sex, significant associations were found between lower eGFR and higher systolic (P=.001) and diastolic blood pressure (P<.001) and higher systemic vascular resistance (P=.001). There was no association between eGFR and cardiac output or extracellular volume. In the absence of clinical kidney disease, lower eGFR was associated with higher blood pressure and systemic vascular resistance. Therefore, early impairment in kidney function may be involved in the pathogenesis of essential hypertension. PMID:25228202

  8. Predicting the impact of anaerobic microsites on soil organic matter mineralization rates in upland soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gee, K. E.; Keiluweit, M.; Denney, A.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Soils are a crucial component of the global carbon (C) cycle, representing a highly dynamic and large reservoir of C stored as soil organic matter (SOM). An important control on SOM residence time is microbial mineralization. While the impact of climactic and site-specific constraints on SOM mineralization rates are recognized, the role of oxygen limitations remains elusive. If oxygen consumption (via heterotrophic respiration) outpaces supply (via diffusion), anaerobic microsites can occur even within seemingly well-aerated upland soils. Under anaerobic conditions, SOM mineralization rates are expected to be slower due to metabolic constraints on microbial C oxidation. Process-based C cycling models have begun to incorporate the inhibiting effect of oxygen limitations by estimating anaerobic pore volume. However, such model predictions still lack experimental validation and research on environmental controls thus far has largely been focused on soil moisture. Here we aimed to determine the extent of anaerobic microsites within seemingly well-aerated upland soils experimentally and identify whether texture, SOM content, and microbial biomass can act as useful predictors in modeling frameworks. To this end, we monitored oxygen dynamics in soils spanning natural and artificial gradients in texture, SOM content and microbial biomass. Anaerobic microsites was visualized using a planar optode imaging system. Oxygen consumption rates were determined using gas chromatography, while oxygen diffusion rates were estimated based on porosity and pore-size distribution quantified by x-ray microtomography. Our results show that bulk oxygen concentrations ranged from 70% to as low as 20% saturation. However, all soils showed substantial micro-scale variability in oxygen concentrations, leading to the formation of anaerobic microsites even at modest moisture content. The extent of anaerobic microsites correlated with an overall reduction in SOM mineralization rates, and depended

  9. Predictive validity of curriculum-based measurement and teacher ratings of academic achievement.

    PubMed

    Kettler, Ryan J; Albers, Craig A

    2013-08-01

    Two alternative universal screening approaches to identify students with early learning difficulties were examined, along with a combination of these approaches. These approaches, consisting of (a) curriculum-based measurement (CBM) and (b) teacher ratings using Performance Screening Guides (PSGs), served as predictors of achievement tests in reading and mathematics. Participants included 413 students in grades 1, 2, and 3 in Tennessee (n=118) and Wisconsin (n=295) who were divided into six subsamples defined by grade and state. Reading and mathematics achievement tests with established psychometric properties were used as criteria within a concurrent and predictive validity framework. Across both achievement areas, CBM probes shared more variance with criterion measures than did teacher ratings, although teacher ratings added incremental validity among most subsamples. PSGs tended to be more accurate for identifying students in need of assistance at a 1-month interval, whereas CBM probes were more accurate at a 6-month interval. Teachers indicated that (a) false negatives are more problematic than are false positives, (b) both screening methods are useful for identifying early learning difficulties, and (c) both screening methods are useful for identifying students in need of interventions. Collectively, these findings suggest that the two types of measures, when used together, yield valuable information about students who need assistance in reading and mathematics.

  10. Using heart rate to predict energy expenditure in large domestic dogs.

    PubMed

    Gerth, N; Ruoß, C; Dobenecker, B; Reese, S; Starck, J M

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to establish heart rate as a measure of energy expenditure in large active kennel dogs (28 ± 3 kg bw). Therefore, the heart rate (HR)-oxygen consumption (V˙O2) relationship was analysed in Foxhound-Boxer-Ingelheim-Labrador cross-breds (FBI dogs) at rest and graded levels of exercise on a treadmill up to 60-65% of maximal aerobic capacity. To test for effects of training, HR and V˙O2 were measured in female dogs, before and after a training period, and after an adjacent training pause to test for reversibility of potential effects. Least squares regression was applied to describe the relationship between HR and V˙O2. The applied training had no statistically significant effect on the HR-V˙O2 regression. A general regression line from all data collected was prepared to establish a general predictive equation for energy expenditure from HR in FBI dogs. The regression equation established in this study enables fast estimation of energy requirement for running activity. The equation is valid for large dogs weighing around 30 kg that run at ground level up to 15 km/h with a heart rate maximum of 190 bpm irrespective of the training level. PMID:26344575

  11. Predicted Rates of Secondary Malignancies From Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy for Stage I Seminoma

    SciTech Connect

    Simone, Charles B.; Kramer, Kevin; O'Meara, William P.; Bekelman, Justin E.; Belard, Arnaud; McDonough, James; O'Connell, John

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Photon radiotherapy has been the standard adjuvant treatment for stage I seminoma. Single-dose carboplatin therapy and observation have emerged as alternative options due to concerns for acute toxicities and secondary malignancies from radiation. In this institutional review board-approved study, we compared photon and proton radiotherapy for stage I seminoma and the predicted rates of excess secondary malignancies for both treatment modalities. Methods and Material: Computed tomography images from 10 consecutive patients with stage I seminoma were used to quantify dosimetric differences between photon and proton therapies. Structures reported to be at increased risk for secondary malignancies and in-field critical structures were contoured. Reported models of organ-specific radiation-induced cancer incidence rates based on organ equivalent dose were used to determine the excess absolute risk of secondary malignancies. Calculated values were compared with tumor registry reports of excess secondary malignancies among testicular cancer survivors. Results: Photon and proton plans provided comparable target volume coverage. Proton plans delivered significantly lower mean doses to all examined normal tissues, except for the kidneys. The greatest absolute reduction in mean dose was observed for the stomach (119 cGy for proton plans vs. 768 cGy for photon plans; p < 0.0001). Significantly more excess secondary cancers per 10,000 patients/year were predicted for photon radiation than for proton radiation to the stomach (4.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.22-5.01), large bowel (0.81; 95% CI, 0.39-1.01), and bladder (0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.58), while no difference was demonstrated for radiation to the pancreas (0.02; 95% CI, -0.01-0.06). Conclusions: For patients with stage I seminoma, proton radiation therapy reduced the predicted secondary cancer risk compared with photon therapy. We predict a reduction of one additional secondary cancer for every 50 patients

  12. Sweat rate prediction equations for outdoor exercise with transient solar radiation.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Richard R; Cheuvront, Samuel N; Ely, Brett R; Moran, Daniel S; Hadid, Amir; Endrusick, Thomas L; Sawka, Michael N

    2012-04-01

    We investigated the validity of employing a fuzzy piecewise prediction equation (PW) [Gonzalez et al. J Appl Physiol 107: 379-388, 2009] defined by sweat rate (m(sw), g·m(-2)·h(-1)) = 147 + 1.527·(E(req)) - 0.87·(E(max)), which integrates evaporation required (E(req)) and the maximum evaporative capacity of the environment (E(max)). Heat exchange and physiological responses were determined throughout the trials. Environmental conditions were ambient temperature (T(a)) = 16-26°C, relative humidity (RH) = 51-55%, and wind speed (V) = 0.5-1.5 m/s. Volunteers wore military fatigues [clothing evaporative potential (i(m)/clo) = 0.33] and carried loads (15-31 kg) while marching 14-37 km over variable terrains either at night (N = 77, trials 1-5) or night with increasing daylight (N = 33, trials 6 and 7). PW was modified (Pw,sol) for transient solar radiation (R(sol), W) determined from measured solar loads and verified in trials 6 and 7. PW provided a valid m(sw) prediction during night trials (1-5) matching previous laboratory values and verified by bootstrap correlation (r(bs) of 0.81, SE ± 0.014, SEE = ± 69.2 g·m(-2)·h(-1)). For trials 6 and 7, E(req) and E(max) components included R(sol) applying a modified equation Pw,sol, in which m(sw) = 147 + 1.527·(E(req,sol)) - 0.87·(E(max)). Linear prediction of m(sw) = 0.72·Pw,sol + 135 (N = 33) was validated (R(2) = 0.92; SEE = ±33.8 g·m(-2)·h(-1)) with PW β-coefficients unaltered during field marches between 16°C and 26°C T(a) for m(sw) ≤ 700 g·m(-2)·h(-1). PW was additionally derived for cool laboratory/night conditions (T(a) < 20°C) in which E(req) is low but E(max) is high, as: PW,cool (g·m(-2)·h(-1)) = 350 + 1.527·E(req) - 0.87·E(max). These sweat prediction equations allow valid tools for civilian, sports, and military medicine communities to predict water needs during a variety of heat stress/exercise conditions.

  13. Ethnic discrimination predicts poor self-rated health and cortisol in pregnancy: insights from New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Thayer, Zaneta M; Kuzawa, Christopher W

    2015-03-01

    Despite growing research emphasis on understanding the health effects of ethnic discrimination, little work has focused on how such exposures may influence a woman's biology and health during pregnancy. Understanding such effects is important given evidence that maternal stress experience in pregnancy can have long term effects on offspring health. Here we present data evaluating the relationship between perceived discrimination, self-rated health, and the stress hormone cortisol measured in late pregnancy among a diverse sample of women living in Auckland, New Zealand (N = 55). We also evaluated possible intergenerational impacts of maternal discrimination on stress reactivity in a subset of offspring (N = 19). Pregnant women were recruited from two antenatal care clinics in Auckland. Women were met in their homes between 34 and 36 weeks gestation, during which time a prenatal stress questionnaire was administered and saliva samples (morning and evening from two days) were obtained. Offspring cortisol reactivity was assessed at the standard six week postnatal vaccination visit. We found that 34% of women reported having experienced ethnic discrimination, with minority and immigrant women being more likely to report being angry or upset in response to discrimination experience compared with NZ-born women of European descent. Women reporting discrimination experience had worse self-rated health, higher evening cortisol and gave birth to infants with higher cortisol reactivity, all independent of ethnicity and material deprivation. These findings suggest that discrimination experience can have biological impacts in pregnancy and across generations, potentially contributing to the ethnic gradient in health.

  14. Prediction of PWSCC in nickel base alloys using crack growth rate models

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, C.D.; Krasodomski, H.T.; Lewis, N.; Makar, G.L.

    1995-12-31

    The Ford/Andresen slip-dissolution SCC model, originally developed for stainless steel components in BWR environments, has been applied to Alloy 600 and Alloy X-750 tested in deaerated pure water chemistry. A method is described whereby the crack growth rates measured in compact tension specimens can be used to estimate crack growth in a component. Good agreement was found between model prediction and measured SCC in X-750 threaded fasteners over a wide range of temperatures, stresses, and material conditions. Most data support the basic assumption of this model that cracks initiate early in life. The evidence supporting a particular SCC mechanism is mixed. Electrochemical repassivation data and estimates of oxide fracture strain indicate that the slip-dissolution model can account for the observed crack growth rates, provided primary rather than secondary creep rates are used. However, approximately 100 cross-sectional TEM foils of SCC cracks including crack tips reveal no evidence of enhanced plasticity or unique dislocation patterns at the crack tip or along the crack to support a classic slip-dissolution mechanism. No voids, hydrides, or microcracks are found in the vicinity of the crack tips creating doubt about classic hydrogen related mechanisms. The bulk oxide films exhibit a surface oxide which is often different than the oxides found within a crack. Although bulk chromium concentration affects the rate of SCC, analytical data indicates the mechanism does not result from chromium depletion at the grain boundaries. The overall findings support a corrosion/dissolution mechanism but not one necessarily related to slip at the crack tip.

  15. Helping from the heart: Voluntary upregulation of heart rate variability predicts altruistic behavior.

    PubMed

    Bornemann, Boris; Kok, Bethany E; Böckler, Anne; Singer, Tania

    2016-09-01

    Our various daily activities continually require regulation of our internal state. These regulatory processes covary with changes in High Frequency Heart Rate Variability (HF-HRV), a marker of parasympathetic activity. Specifically, incidental increases in HF-HRV accompany positive social engagement behavior and prosocial action. Little is known about deliberate regulation of HF-HRV and the role of voluntary parasympathetic regulation in prosocial behavior. Here, we present a novel biofeedback task that measures the ability to deliberately increase HF-HRV. In two large samples, we find that a) participants are able to voluntarily upregulate HF-HRV, and b) variation in this ability predicts individual differences in altruistic prosocial behavior, but not non-altruistic forms of prosociality, assessed through 14 different measures. Our findings suggest that self-induction of parasympathetic states is involved in altruistic action. The biofeedback task may provide a measure of deliberate parasympathetic regulation, with implications for the study of attention, emotion, and social behavior.

  16. Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

    2012-03-01

    Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

  17. Predicting metabolic rate during level and uphill outdoor walking using a low-cost GPS receiver.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Dumond, Rémy; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Lavenu, Audrey; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of using speed and grade data obtained from a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver to estimate metabolic rate (MR) during level and uphill outdoor walking. Thirty young, healthy adults performed randomized outdoor walking for 6-min periods at 2.0, 3.5, and 5.0 km/h and on three different grades: 1) level walking, 2) uphill walking on a 3.7% mean grade, and 3) uphill walking on a 10.8% mean grade. The reference MR [metabolic equivalents (METs) and oxygen uptake (V̇o2)] values were obtained using a portable metabolic system. The speed and grade were obtained using a low-cost GPS receiver (1-Hz recording). The GPS grade (Δ altitude/distance walked) was calculated using both uncorrected GPS altitude data and GPS altitude data corrected with map projection software. The accuracy of predictions using reference speed and grade (actual[SPEED/GRADE]) data was high [R(2) = 0.85, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.68 MET]. The accuracy decreased when GPS speed and uncorrected grade (GPS[UNCORRECTED]) data were used, although it remained substantial (R(2) = 0.66, RMSE = 1.00 MET). The accuracy was greatly improved when the GPS speed and corrected grade (GPS[CORRECTED]) data were used (R(2) = 0.82, RMSE = 0.79 MET). Published predictive equations for walking MR were also cross-validated using actual or GPS speed and grade data when appropriate. The prediction accuracy was very close when either actual[SPEED/GRADE] values or GPS[CORRECTED] values (for level and uphill combined) or GPS speed values (for level walking only) were used. These results offer promising research and clinical applications related to the assessment of energy expenditure during free-living walking. PMID:27402559

  18. Predicting metabolic rate during level and uphill outdoor walking using a low-cost GPS receiver.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Dumond, Rémy; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Lavenu, Audrey; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of using speed and grade data obtained from a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver to estimate metabolic rate (MR) during level and uphill outdoor walking. Thirty young, healthy adults performed randomized outdoor walking for 6-min periods at 2.0, 3.5, and 5.0 km/h and on three different grades: 1) level walking, 2) uphill walking on a 3.7% mean grade, and 3) uphill walking on a 10.8% mean grade. The reference MR [metabolic equivalents (METs) and oxygen uptake (V̇o2)] values were obtained using a portable metabolic system. The speed and grade were obtained using a low-cost GPS receiver (1-Hz recording). The GPS grade (Δ altitude/distance walked) was calculated using both uncorrected GPS altitude data and GPS altitude data corrected with map projection software. The accuracy of predictions using reference speed and grade (actual[SPEED/GRADE]) data was high [R(2) = 0.85, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.68 MET]. The accuracy decreased when GPS speed and uncorrected grade (GPS[UNCORRECTED]) data were used, although it remained substantial (R(2) = 0.66, RMSE = 1.00 MET). The accuracy was greatly improved when the GPS speed and corrected grade (GPS[CORRECTED]) data were used (R(2) = 0.82, RMSE = 0.79 MET). Published predictive equations for walking MR were also cross-validated using actual or GPS speed and grade data when appropriate. The prediction accuracy was very close when either actual[SPEED/GRADE] values or GPS[CORRECTED] values (for level and uphill combined) or GPS speed values (for level walking only) were used. These results offer promising research and clinical applications related to the assessment of energy expenditure during free-living walking.

  19. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors

    PubMed Central

    Batton-Hubert, Mireille; Sarazin, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners. Methods Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals’ information systems for a period of 8 years (2007–2015). First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means). Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method. Results High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2. Conclusion These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner’s activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity. PMID

  20. Predicting Galaxy Star Formation Rates via the Co-evolution of Galaxies and Halos

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.

    2014-03-06

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, and as such, that more quiescent galaxies reside in older halos. This simple model has been remarkably successful at predicting color-based galaxy statistics at low redshift as measured in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To further test this method with observations, we present new SDSS measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star forming galaxy samples. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also employ a galaxy group finder and show that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR-dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an approx r-.15 slope, independent of environment. The accurate prediction for the spatial distribution of satellites is intriguing given the fact that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite, contrary to most galaxy evolution models. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  1. Heart Rate-Based Prediction of Fixed Blood Lactate Thresholds in Professional Team-Sport Players.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Tabar, Ibai; Llodio, Iñaki; Sánchez-Medina, Luis; Ruesta, Maite; Ibañez, Javier; Gorostiaga, Esteban M

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the speed associated with 90% of maximal heart rate (S90%HRmax) could predict speeds at fixed blood lactate concentrations of 3 mmol·L(-1) (S3mM) and 4 mmol·L(-1) (S4mM). Professional team-sport players of futsal (n = 10), handball (n = 16), and basketball (n = 10) performed a 4-stage discontinuous progressive running test followed, if exhaustion was not previously achieved, by an additional maximal continuous incremental running test to attain maximal heart rate (HRmax). The individual S3mM, S4mM, and S90%HRmax were determined by linear interpolation. S3mM (11.6 ± 1.5 km·h(-1)) and S4mM (12.5 ± 1.4 km·h(-1)) did not differ (p > 0.05) from S90%HRmax (12.0 ± 1.2 km·h(-1)). Very large significant (p < 0.001) relationships were found between S90%HRmax and S3mM (r = 0.82; standard error of the estimates [SEE] = 0.87 km·h(-1)), as well as between S90%HRmax and S4mM (r = 0.82; SEE = 0.87 km·h(-1)). S3mM and S4mM inversely correlated with %HRmax associated with running speeds of 10 and 12 km·h(-1) (r = 0.78-0.81; p < 0.001; SEE = 0.94-0.87 km·h(-1)). In conclusion, S3mM and S4mM can be accurately predicted by S90%HRmax in professional team-sport players.

  2. A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the reaction of VOCs with nitrate radicals.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Michael

    2016-07-01

    A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the degradation of volatile organic compounds by nitrate radicals is developed using the Partial Least Squares technique. The QSAR is based on experimental data published in the literature for 260 compounds. They are modeled by a set of calculated descriptors from standard descriptor generation tools and from quantum chemistry. Out of several diversity-based partitionings of the data set a diverse set of 99 compounds turned out to be the optimum choice with regard to simplicity and performance. The final QSAR model is characterized by r(2) = 0.831 (fit) and q(2) = 0.823 (prediction), and by an r(2)pred = 0.862 for the n = 155 external validation set. The QSAR needs 3 latent variables. The most important descriptors for the QSAR are the ionization potential, obtained from density functional theory, and the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital, which are modulated by fingerprints indicating the presence of specific molecular fragments like functional groups or ring systems. The applicability domain of the new QSAR was studied for some compound classes which are important for the crop protection industry, including (di)hydroxbenzenes and heterocyclic compounds. PMID:27037771

  3. A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the reaction of VOCs with nitrate radicals.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Michael

    2016-07-01

    A QSAR for the prediction of rate constants for the degradation of volatile organic compounds by nitrate radicals is developed using the Partial Least Squares technique. The QSAR is based on experimental data published in the literature for 260 compounds. They are modeled by a set of calculated descriptors from standard descriptor generation tools and from quantum chemistry. Out of several diversity-based partitionings of the data set a diverse set of 99 compounds turned out to be the optimum choice with regard to simplicity and performance. The final QSAR model is characterized by r(2) = 0.831 (fit) and q(2) = 0.823 (prediction), and by an r(2)pred = 0.862 for the n = 155 external validation set. The QSAR needs 3 latent variables. The most important descriptors for the QSAR are the ionization potential, obtained from density functional theory, and the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital, which are modulated by fingerprints indicating the presence of specific molecular fragments like functional groups or ring systems. The applicability domain of the new QSAR was studied for some compound classes which are important for the crop protection industry, including (di)hydroxbenzenes and heterocyclic compounds.

  4. Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee, Henry; Frazier, Melanie; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Fofonoff, Paul W.; Minton, Mark S.; Miller, A. Whitman

    2013-01-01

    Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of 50 μm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

  5. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    PubMed

    Berzan, E; Mellotte, G; Silke, B

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR's of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome. PMID:25876302

  6. Predicting reaction rate constants of ozone with organic compounds from radical structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xinliang; Yi, Bing; Wang, Xueye; Chen, Jianfang

    2012-05-01

    The reaction rate constants of ozone with organic compounds in the atmosphere were predicted by a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations, for the first time, were carried out on the radicals from organic compounds, at the UB3LYP level of theory with 6-31G(d) basis set. A set of quantum chemical descriptors calculated from the radicals, the energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital of beta spin states (EβHOMO), the molecular average polarizability (α), and the total energy (ET), were used to build the general QSAR model for aliphatic compounds, applying the genetic algorithm (GA) technique and support vector machine (SVM) regression. The root mean square errors (RMSE) are 0.680 for the training set (68 compounds), 0.777 for the validation set (36 compounds) and 0.709 for the test set (35 compounds). Investigated results indicate that the SVM model given here has good predictivity for aliphatic compounds.

  7. Predicting total global species richness using rates of species description and estimates of taxonomic effort.

    PubMed

    Costello, Mark J; Wilson, Simon; Houlding, Brett

    2012-10-01

    We found that trends in the rate of description of 580,000 marine and terrestrial species, in the taxonomically authoritative World Register of Marine Species and Catalogue of Life databases, were similar until the 1950s. Since then, the relative number of marine to terrestrial species described per year has increased, reflecting the less explored nature of the oceans. From the mid-19th century, the cumulative number of species described has been linear, with the highest number of species described in the decade of 1900, and fewer species described and fewer authors active during the World Wars. There were more authors describing species since the 1960s, indicating greater taxonomic effort. There were fewer species described per author since the 1920s, suggesting it has become more difficult to discover new species. There was no evidence of any change in individual effort by taxonomists. Using a nonhomogeneous renewal process model we predicted that 24-31% to 21-29% more marine and terrestrial species remain to be discovered, respectively. We discuss why we consider that marine species comprise only 16% of all species on Earth although the oceans contain a greater phylogenetic diversity than occurs on land. We predict that there may be 1.8-2.0 million species on Earth, of which about 0.3 million are marine, significantly less than some previous estimates.

  8. Analytical Model for Prediction of Reduced Strain Energy Release Rate of Single-Side-Patched Plates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Y. W.; Lee, W. Y.; McGee, A. S.; Hart, D. C.; Loup, D. C.; Rasmussen, E. A.

    2013-12-01

    A study was undertaken to develop an analytical model that can predict how much reduction in Strain Energy Release Rate (SERR) can be achieved by repairing a cracked plate using a single-side bonded patch. The plate may be subjected to inplane or out-of-plane bending loading. Furthermore, the plate may be flat or curved in a cylindrical shape. The model helps to select patch material (i.e., elastic modulus of the material) and the appropriate patch size in order to reduce the SERR at the crack tip of the patched base plate. In other words, the analytical model can be utilized to select the patch material and patch dimensions required to achieve the desired SERR for a cracked base plate with known modulus, thickness, and crack size. The model is based on axial and bending stresses of the single-side strap joint configuration, which are related to the SERR at the crack tip of a plate with a single-side patch repair. In order to verify the analytical model, finite element analyses were conducted to determine stresses as well as SERR in many different patched plates. The numerical study confirmed the validity of the analytical model in predicting the reduction ratio of SERR resulting from the single-side patch repair.

  9. Individual differences in elevated plus-maze exploration predicted higher ethanol consumption and preference in outbred mice.

    PubMed

    Bahi, Amine

    2013-04-01

    Psychiatric illnesses, such as anxiety, are highly comorbid with drug use disorders in general and alcohol abuse in particular. Unfortunately, the causal role of anxiety in ethanol addiction is still unclear. We asked the question whether high anxiety predicts predilection of mice to voluntarily consume more alcohol than water. In the current study, we used the voluntary alcohol intake in two bottle choice drinking paradigm to explore whether high anxiety predicts higher alcohol preference and intake in outbred Tuck-Ordinary "TO" mice. To this end, mice were tested for their anxiety-like behavior using the elevated plus maze, open field and the marble burying test prior to voluntary continuous access to increasing concentrations of alcohol solutions. To assess their taste discrimination, mice had access to saccharin and quinine solutions. Results showed that compared to low-anxious mice (LAM), high-anxious mice (HAM) showed greater consumption and preference for ethanol but not for saccharin and quinine suggesting alterations in the rewarding effects of alcohol. Taken together, these findings suggest a correlative link between trait anxiety and the behavioral responses to ethanol.

  10. Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akyuzlu, Kazim M.; Coote, David

    2013-01-01

    ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

  11. Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Is Associated With Higher 1-year All-Cause Rehospitalization Rates in Patients Admitted for Acute Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Valbusa, Filippo; Bonapace, Stefano; Grillo, Cristina; Scala, Luca; Chiampan, Andrea; Rossi, Andrea; Zoppini, Giacomo; Lonardo, Amedeo; Arcaro, Guido; Byrne, Christopher D.; Targher, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Repeat hospitalization due to acute heart failure (HF) is a global public health problem that markedly impacts on health resource use. Identifying novel predictors of rehospitalization would help physicians to determine the optimal postdischarge plan for preventing HF rehospitalization. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for many heart diseases, including HF. We assessed whether NAFLD at hospital admission predicts 1-year all-cause rehospitalization in patients with acute HF. We enrolled all patients consecutively admitted for acute HF to our General Medicine Division, from January 2013 to April 2014, after excluding patients with acute myocardial infarction, severe heart valve diseases, malignancy, known liver diseases, and those with volume overload related to extracardiac causes. NAFLD was diagnosed by ultrasonography and exclusion of competing etiologies. The primary outcome of the study was the 1-year all-cause rehospitalization rate. Among the 107 patients enrolled in the study, the cumulative rehospitalization rate was 12.1% at 1 month, 25.2% at 3 months, 29.9% at 6 months, and 38.3% at 1 year. Patients with NAFLD had markedly higher 1-year rehospitalization rates than those without NAFLD (58% vs 21% at 1 y; P < 0.001 by the log-rank test). Cox regression analysis revealed that NAFLD was associated with a 5.5-fold increased risk of rehospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 5.56, 95% confidence interval 2.46–12.1, P < 0.001) after adjustment for multiple HF risk factors and potential confounders. In conclusion, NAFLD was independently associated with higher 1-year rehospitalization in patients hospitalized for acute HF. PMID:26886619

  12. A technique for predicting mode I energy release rates using a first-order shear deformable plate theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidson, B. D.; Schapery, R. A.

    1990-01-01

    Utilizing a first order shear deformable plate theory, a technique is described for predicting the distribution of the energy release rate along a curved or straight mode I planar crack in the plane of a plate (such as a delamination crack). Accuracy of the technique is assessed by comparing the distributions of energy release rate with those predicted by two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses of double cantilever beam specimens with straight crack fronts.

  13. A model to predict the thermal reaction norm for the embryo growth rate from field data.

    PubMed

    Girondot, Marc; Kaska, Yakup

    2014-10-01

    The incubation of eggs is strongly influenced by temperature as observed in all species studied to date. For example, incubation duration, sexual phenotype, growth, and performances in many vertebrate hatchlings are affected by incubation temperature. Yet it is very difficult to predict temperature effect based on the temperature within a field nest, as temperature varies throughout incubation. Previous works used egg incubation at constant temperatures in the laboratory to evaluate the dependency of growtProd. Type: FTPh rate on temperature. However, generating such data is time consuming and not always feasible due to logistical and legislative constraints. This paper therefore presents a methodology to extract the thermal reaction norm for the embryo growth rate directly from a time series of incubation temperatures recorded within natural nests. This methodology was successfully applied to the nests of the marine turtle Caretta caretta incubated on Dalyan Beach in Turkey, although it can also be used for any egg-laying species, with some of its limitations being discussed in the paper. Knowledge about embryo growth patterns is also important when determining the thermosensitive period for species with temperature-dependent sex determination. Indeed, in this case, sexual phenotype is sensitive to temperature only during this window of embryonic development.

  14. A model to predict rate of dissolution of toxic compounds into seawater from an oil spill.

    PubMed

    Riazi, M R; Roomi, Y A

    2008-01-01

    In this paper a semianalytical model has been proposed to predict the rate at which oil components dissolve in water when an oil spill occurs in a marine environment. The model breaks the oil into a number of pseudocomponents proportional to the number of compounds originally present in the oil and calculates the rate of dissolution for each component. In addition, the components are divided into paraffinic, naphthenic, and aromatic hydrocarbon types and the amount of dissolution of each pseudocomponent is calculated versus time. In this method the concentration of most toxic components of oil (mainly monoaromatics) is determined. The model considers variable surface area and slick thickness and requires oil specifications (i.e., American Petroleum Institute [API] gravity and boiling point) in addition to air and water temperatures and speeds. The model has been applied to a Kuwaiti crude oil and its products naphtha and kerosene samples at 20 degrees C and 40 degrees C. The results could be useful in selection of an appropriate method for oil spill clean up as well as simulation of environmental impact of oil spill from toxicity points of view. PMID:19037808

  15. Prediction of the Rate of Uptake of Carbon Monoxide From Blood by Extravascular Tissues

    PubMed Central

    Bruce, Eugene N.; Bruce, Margaret C.; Erupaka, Kinnera

    2008-01-01

    Uptake of environmental carbon monoxide (CO) via the lungs raises the CO content of blood and of myoglobin (Mb)-containing tissues, but the blood-to-tissue diffusion coefficient for CO (DmCO) and tissue CO content are not easily measurable in humans. We used a multicompartment mathematical model to predict the effects of different values of DmCO on the time courses and magnitudes of CO content of blood and Mb-containing tissues when various published experimental studies were simulated. The model enhances our earlier model by adding mass balance equations for oxygen and by dividing the muscle compartment into 2 subcompartments. We found that several published experimental findings are compatible with either fast or slow rates of blood-tissue transfer of CO, whereas others are only compatible with slow rates of tissue uptake of CO. We conclude that slow uptake is most consistent with all of the experimental data. Slow uptake of CO by tissue is primarily due to the very small blood-to-tissue partial pressure gradients for CO. PMID:18313993

  16. Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    changes in reported disease incidence as a function of temperature and rainfall. These models account for age-dependency (children versus adults), which is especially important because children can report substantially higher rates of zoonoses. The model is linear because the zoonotic pathogen 'reservoir' is overwhelmingly among animals, and so the usual interaction in which human-pathogen interactions affect the degree of environmental contamination does not apply in the short term (on the order of one year). Accordingly, the interaction can be approximated by a constant contact rate over a given year, even though the contact rates may vary between decades because of climate change and variability. This linearity property enables the derivation of analytical solutions to the model's governing equations, thereby providing for a more elegant examination of the model's properties and for making projections under climate change. The models have been calibrated to reported rates of these diseases. Simple exponential functions have been used to vary the pathogen contact rates for the reference years 2015, 2040 and 2090 under three climate change scenarios of low, medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases (B1, A1B, and A2). These formulations have been guided by the results of statistical models calibrated to historical disease reporting rates. The models have been used to calculate the ratio of reported illness rates to present rates projected for future years across New Zealand at the ~5 km scale. Detailed results will be presented for the reference year 2040.

  17. Vagal Regulation of Heart Rate in the Prediction of Developmental Outcome for Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doussard-Roosevelt, Jane A.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Used heart rate and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) assessed at 33 to 35 weeks gestational age to predict developmental outcome at 3 years for very low birth weight infants. Found that RSA measures predicted developmental outcome beyond effects of birth weight, medical risk, and socioeconomic status. For infants < 1,000 grams, RSA maturation…

  18. Dominant Frequency Increase Rate Predicts Transition from Paroxysmal to Long-Term Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Martins, Raphael P.; Kaur, Kuljeet; Hwang, Elliot; Ramirez, Rafael J.; Willis, B. Cicero; Filgueiras-Rama, David; Ennis, Steven R.; Takemoto, Yoshio; Ponce-Balbuena, Daniela; Zarzoso, Manuel; O’Connell, Ryan P.; Musa, Hassan; Guerrero-Serna, Guadalupe; Avula, Uma Mahesh R.; Swartz, Michael F.; Bhushal, Sandesh; Deo, Makarand; Pandit, Sandeep V.; Berenfeld, Omer; Jalife, José

    2014-01-01

    Background Little is known about the mechanisms underlying the transition from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). In an ovine model of long-standing persistent AF (LS-PAF) we tested the hypothesis that the rate of electrical and/or structural remodeling, assessed by dominant frequency (DF) changes, determines the time at which AF becomes persistent. Methods and Results Self-sustained AF was induced by atrial tachypacing. Seven sheep were sacrificed 11.5±2.3 days after the transition to persistent AF and without reversal to sinus rhythm (SR); 7 sheep were sacrificed after 341.3±16.7 days of LS-PAF. Seven sham-operated animals were in SR for 1 year. DF was monitored continuously in each group. RT-PCR, western blotting, patch-clamping and histological analyses were used to determine changes in functional ion channel expression and structural remodeling. Atrial dilatation, mitral valve regurgitation, myocyte hypertrophy, and atrial fibrosis occurred progressively and became statistically significant after the transition to persistent AF, with no evidence for left ventricular dysfunction. DF increased progressively during the paroxysmal-to-persistent AF transition and stabilized when AF became persistent. Importantly, the rate of DF increase (dDF/dt) correlated strongly with the time to persistent AF. Significant action potential duration (APD) abbreviation, secondary to functional ion channel protein expression changes (CaV1.2, NaV1.5 and KV4.2 decrease; Kir2.3 increase), was already present at the transition and persisted for one-year follow up. Conclusions In the sheep model of LS-PAF, the rate of DF increase predicts the time at which AF stabilizes and becomes persistent, reflecting changes in APD and densities of sodium, L-type calcium and inward rectifier currents. PMID:24463369

  19. Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gore, James A.; Milner, Alexander M.

    1990-09-01

    Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90-400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40-250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both

  20. Energy expenditure in children predicted from heart rate and activity calibrated against respiration calorimetry.

    PubMed

    Treuth, M S; Adolph, A L; Butte, N F

    1998-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to predict energy expenditure (EE) from heart rate (HR) and activity calibrated against 24-h respiration calorimetry in 20 children. HR, oxygen consumption (VO2), carbon dioxide production (VCO2), and EE were measured during rest, sleep, exercise, and over 24 h by room respiration calorimetry on two separate occasions. Activity was monitored by a leg vibration sensor. The calibration day (day 1) consisted of specified behaviors categorized as inactive (lying, sitting, standing) or active (two bicycle sessions). On the validation day (day 2), the child selected activities. Separate regression equations for VO2, VCO2, and EE for method 1 (combining awake and asleep using HR, HR2, and HR3), method 2 (separating awake and asleep), and method 3 (separating awake into active and inactive, and combining activity and HR) were developed using the calibration data. For day 1, the errors were similar for 24-h VO2, VCO2, and EE among methods and also among HR, HR2, and HR3. The methods were validated using measured data from day 2. There were no significant differences in HR, VO2, VCO2, respiratory quotient, and EE values during rest, sleep, or over the 24 h between days 1 and 2. Applying the linear HR equations to day 2 data, the errors were the lowest with the combined HR/activity method (-2.6 +/- 5.2%, -4.1 +/- 5.9%, -2.9 +/- 5.1% for VO2, VCO2, and EE, respectively). To demonstrate the utility of the HR/activity method, HR and activity were monitored for 24 h at home (day 3). Free-living EE was predicted as 7,410 +/- 1,326 kJ/day. In conclusion, the combination of HR and activity is an acceptable method for determining EE not only for groups of children, but for individuals.

  1. Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water.

    PubMed

    Reusser, Deborah A; Lee, Henry; Frazier, Melanie; Ruiz, Gregory M; Fofonoff, Paul W; Minton, Mark S; Miller, A Whitman

    2013-03-01

    Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10-100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of < 10 organisms with body size > 50 microm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

  2. Current-Driven Instabilities and Energy Dissipation Rates As a Predictive Tool for Solar Probe Plus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, L. B., III; Breneman, A. W.; Malaspina, D.; Le Contel, O.; Cully, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present recent observational evidence of current-driven instabilities in the terrestrial bow shock. We use an observed positive correlation between |δE| and |jo| to extrapolate the results to currently inaccessible regions of space (e.g., the solar corona). Magnitudes of energy dissipation per unit volume in the solar corona due to current-driven instabilities can be estimated using electric and magnetic fields values extrapolated to coronal values. The energy dissipation values estimated this way represent an upper bound on the true energy dissipation in these regions. For instance, previous studies have estimated current densities in the solar corona to range from 104 to 107 μA m-2, which correspond to extrapolated δE magnitudes in excess of 12,000 mV/m and thus, energy dissipation rates in excess of 108 μW m-3. These rates are six orders of magnitude higher than is necessary to explain the temperature of the corona. Similar extrapolations can be made for astrophysical phenomena such as the surface of a neutron star. The results are of particular importance for future missions like Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter.

  3. Alterations in predicted growth rates of pediatric kidneys treated with extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy.

    PubMed

    Lifshitz, D A; Lingeman, J E; Zafar, F S; Hollensbe, D W; Nyhuis, A W; Evan, A P

    1998-10-01

    The long-term effects of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) on the kidneys of children treated for renal calculi are unclear. In order to determine if SWL has any negative effects on renal growth rates, we reviewed long-term (mean 9-year) follow-up data on 29 pediatric patients treated between 1984 and 1988 with an unmodified Dornier HM3 lithotripter. Changes in renal length, serum creatinine, and blood pressure were analyzed. Predicted renal growth was calculated using a formula for age-adjusted renal length. Treated kidneys were stratified into normal and abnormal groups based on a history of renal surgery, evidence of recurrent infection, and obvious anatomic abnormalities. Fifty-six upper urinary tract calculi were treated in 34 renal units. Twenty-two renal units (68%) were rendered stone free, and 65% of the patients continue to be stone free. At follow-up, one patient was classified as having new-onset hypertension, and the mean serum creatinine was 0.93 +/- 0.08 mg/dL. Both at treatment and at follow-up, no significant differences were found in the sizes of the treated and untreated kidneys. However, at treatment, the abnormal group of kidneys seemed to be smaller than expected (mean Z -1.30 +/- 1.10), whereas the group of normal kidneys was very close (mean Z 0.18 +/- 0.54) to the predicted length. At follow-up, the deviations between actual and predicted renal length were significantly more negative. Treated kidneys were an additional 1.26 +/- 0.49 SD units below their expected length (p = 0.02). Untreated kidneys were further below normal as well but possibly to a lesser degree (-0.82 +/- 0.36; p <0.04). Although there was a trend for the abnormal group to have smaller kidneys than the normal group, both groups showed the same trend toward an age-adjusted reduction in renal growth at follow-up. The alterations in renal growth patterns observed in this population are unsettling and could be secondary to either treatment effect (SWL) or, more

  4. A low bioimpedance phase angle predicts a higher mortality and lower nutritional status in chronic dialysis patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumler Md, Francis

    2010-04-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an established technique for body composition analysis. The phase angle parameter, an index of body cell mass, tissue hydration, and membrane integrity, makes it suitable for assessing nutritional status and survivability. We evaluated the significance of a low phase angle value on nutritional status and mortality in 285 chronic dialysis patients during a longitudinal prospective observational study. Patients in the lower phase angle tertile had decreased body weight, body mass index, fat free mass, body cell mass, and lower serum albumin concentrations than those in the higher tertile (P<001). In addition, mortality rates were significantly lower (P=0.05) in the highest tertile patients. In conclusion, the phase angle is a useful method for identifying dialysis patients at high risk for malnutrition and increased mortality.

  5. The Efficacy of ATI Predictive Testing and Remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse Pass Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winter, Alexandra Selman

    2013-01-01

    This project study sought to evaluate the effects of implementing quarterly predictive testing and remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN) pass rates of an associate's degree nursing program at a small Midwestern community college. The college's pass rate on the NCLEX-RN has been below both the…

  6. Use of Follicular Output Rate to Predict Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Rehman, Rehana; Mustafa, Rozina; Baig, Mukhtiar; Arif, Sara; Hashmi, Muhammad Faisal

    2016-01-01

    Background The measurement of follicular output rate (FORT) has been proposed as a good indicator for evaluating follicular response to the exogenous recombinant folliclestimulating hormone (rFSH). This places FORT as a promising qualitative marker for ovarian function. The objective of the study was to determine FORT as a predictor of oocyte competence, embryo quality and clinical pregnancy after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Materials and Methods This prospective study was carried out on a group of infer- tile females (n=282) at Islamabad Clinic Serving Infertile Couples, Islamabad, Pakistan, from June 2010 till August 2013. Downregulated females were stimulated in injection gonadotropins and on ovulation induction day, pre-ovulatory follicle count (PFC) was determined using transvaginal ultrasound scan (TVUS), and FORT was determined as a ratio of PFC to antral follicle count (AFC)×100. Group I consisted of females with a negative pregnancy test, while group II had a positive pregnancy test that was confirmed with the appearance of fetal cardiac activity. Linear regression analyses of categorical variables of clinical pregnancy along with other independent variables, including FORT, were performed using SPSS version 15.0. Results Pregnancy occurred in 101/282 women who were tested, recording a clinical pregnancy rate of about 35.8%. FORT values were higher in group II as compared to group I females (P=0.0001). In multiple regression analysis, 97.7, 87.1, 78.2, and 83.4% variations were explained based on the number of retrieved oocytes per patients, number of metaphase II oocytes retrieved, number of fertilized oocytes, and number of cleaved embryos, respectively, indicating FORT as an independent predictor. Conclusion FORT is a predictor of oocyte competence in terms of a number of retrieved, mature and fertilized oocytes. It also gives information about the number of cleaved embryos and clinical pregnancy rate. PMID:27441049

  7. Mortality Prediction with a Single General Self-Rated Health Question

    PubMed Central

    DeSalvo, Karen B; Bloser, Nicole; Reynolds, Kristi; He, Jiang; Muntner, Paul

    2006-01-01

    objective Health planners and policy makers are increasingly asking for a feasible method to identify vulnerable persons with the greatest health needs. We conducted a systematic review of the association between a single item assessing general self-rated health (GSRH) and mortality. Data Sources Systematic MEDLINE and EMBASE database searches for studies published from January 1966 to September 2003. Review Methods Two investigators independently searched English language prospective, community-based cohort studies that reported (1) all-cause mortality, (2) a question assessing GSRH; and (3) an adjusted relative risk or equivalent. The investigators searched the citations to determine inclusion eligibility and abstracted data by following a standarized protocol. Of the 163 relevant studies identified, 22 cohorts met the inclusion criteria. Using a random effects model, compared with persons reporting “excellent” health status, the relative risk (95% confidence interval) for all-cause mortality was 1.23 [1.09, 1.39], 1.44 [1.21, 1.71], and 1.92 [1.64, 2.25] for those reporting “good,”“fair,” and “poor” health status, respectively. This relationship was robust in sensitivity analyses, limited to studies that adjusted for co-morbid illness, functional status, cognitive status, and depression, and across subgroups defined by gender and country of origin. Conclusions Persons with “poor” self-rated health had a 2-fold higher mortality risk compared with persons with “excellent” self-rated health. Subjects' responses to a simple, single-item GSRH question maintained a strong association with mortality even after adjustment for key covariates such as functional status, depression, and co-morbidity. PMID:16336622

  8. Ratings of Perceived Exertion, Heart Rate, and Power Output in Predicting Maximal Oxygen Uptake During Submaximal Cycle Ergometry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilmore, Jack H.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Sixty-two subjects completed a four-stage submaximal cycle ergometer test to determine if estimates of maximal oxygen uptake could be improved by using ratings of perceived exertion singly or in combination with easily obtainable physiological measures. These procedures could be used to estimate the aerobic power of patients and athletes. (MT)

  9. Role of the Biomarker p16 in Downgrading -IN 2 Diagnoses and Predicting Higher-grade Lesions.

    PubMed

    Maniar, Kruti P; Sanchez, Beatriz; Paintal, Ajit; Gursel, Demirkan B; Nayar, Ritu

    2015-12-01

    In 2012, the College of American Pathologists and American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology published the "LAST" recommendations for histopathology reporting of human papilloma virus-related squamous lesions of the lower anogenital tract, including the use of a 2-tier nomenclature (low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion/high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion [LSIL/HSIL]) and expanded use of the biomarker p16 to classify equivocal lesions as either precancer (HSIL) or low-grade lesions (LSIL)/non-human papilloma virus changes. We aimed to determine (1) the frequency with which the poorly reproducible diagnosis of intermediate-grade (-IN 2) lesion in the lower anogenital tract would be downgraded on the basis of p16 results, and (2) whether p16 status was predictive of subsequent higher-grade lesions. A total of 200 specimens diagnosed as an intermediate-grade (-IN 2) lesion of the cervix (168), vagina (2), vulva (2), and anus (28) were reviewed and immunostained for p16. Slides were independently reviewed by 2 pathologists, with discrepant p16 interpretations adjudicated by a third pathologist. Of the 200 cases, 32% were negative for p16. Among the 166 patients with subsequent pathology (including 131 excisions), 26.2% of p16-positive cases versus 4.4% of p16-negative cases were associated with a subsequent diagnosis of HSIL (-IN 3) or worse (P=0.002). Reproducibility of the biopsy diagnosis was fair, with no significant difference with the addition of p16 or using 2 versus 3 tiers. In 11.5% of cases, there was discordance in p16 interpretation (κ 0.735, good agreement). The results indicate that using the Lower Anogenital Squamous Terminology recommendations would result in approximately one third of equivocal (-IN 2) diagnoses being downgraded to LSIL over 1 year in a busy academic practice. The significant association of p16 expression with a higher risk for HSIL on a subsequent specimen suggests that use of p16 to adjudicate equivocal (-IN 2

  10. Rapid increase to double breathing rate appears during REM sleep in synchrony with REM - a higher CNS control of breathing? -.

    PubMed

    Sato, Shinichi; Kanbayashi, Takashi; Kondo, Hideaki; Matsubuchi, Namiko; Ono, Kyoichi; Shimizu, Tetsuo

    2010-01-01

    Breathing rate (BR) during rapid eye movement (REM) sleep is known to fluctuate largely, while increases in BR during REM sleep reported were small. In our mice experiments, we found that mice exhibit a rapid increase in instantaneous BR (RIBR) of >2 fold during natural sleep with accompanying atonia, laying their sides down. The RIBR was further found in a sleeping mouse attached with EEG electrodes when the EEG amplitude and delta wave power were lower. Therefore, it is likely that mice show RIBRs during REM sleep. Interestingly, similar RIBRs accompanied by atonia and REM burst during REM sleep were also found in humans by standard polysomnographic studies in 11 healthy volunteers (age: 22.3 +/- 2.8) with BR measurement by nasal/oral airflow sensors and chest/abdomen belt sensors. All subjects underwent RIBR of doubled BR at least once a night. As SpO(2) before RIBRs was a level not effective to be a respiratory stimulant (96.7 +/- 1.6 %, n = 63), the RIBR seems to be controlled by higher central nervous system rather than autonomic nervous system control on response to central and peripheral chemical sensors. In fact, tachypnea with suppressed amplitude during RIBR resulted in a slight fall in SpO(2) (96.4 +/- 1.7 %, p = 0.0007). In the present study, RIBRs accompanied by atonia and REM were not necessarily consistent in change in rate and/or amplitude, therefore, these various pattern of RIBRs may be potential indices of dreams with various emotional contents. Analysis of instantaneous BR, thus, may be a helpful tool for understanding the neural control of breathing during REM sleep. PMID:20217359

  11. Mortality, Recurrence, and Dependency Rates Are Higher after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Diabetes Compared to Younger Patients.

    PubMed

    Long, Xue; Lou, Yongzhong; Gu, Hongfei; Guo, Xiaofei; Wang, Tao; Zhu, Yanxia; Zhao, Wenjuan; Ning, Xianjia; Li, Bin; Wang, Jinghua; An, Zhongping

    2016-01-01

    Stroke has a greater effect on the elderly than on younger patients. However, the long-term outcomes associated with stroke among elderly patients with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to assess the differences in long-term outcomes between young and elderly stroke patients with diabetes. A total of 3,615 acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes were recruited for this study between 2006 and 2014. Outcomes at 12 and 36 months after stroke (including mortality, recurrence, and dependency) were compared between younger (age <75 years) and elderly (age ≥75 years) patients. The elderly group included 692 patients (19.1%) overall. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have a Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of stroke due to cardioembolism, moderate and severe stroke, and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to have hypertension and dyslipidemia, current smokers, and alcohol consumers. Mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 months after stroke were 19.0, 48.5, and 20.9% in the elderly group and 7.4, 30.9, and 15.4% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.05). Corresponding rates at 36 months after stroke were 35.4, 78.7, and 53.8% in the elderly group and 13.7, 61.7, and 43.0% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.001). The mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 and 36 months after stroke were significantly higher in the elderly group than in the younger group after adjusting for stroke subtypes, stroke severity, and risk factors. Odds ratios (95% confidence interval) at 12 and 36 months after stroke were 2.18 (1.64-2.89) and 3.10 (2.35-4.08), respectively, for mortality, all P < 0.001; 1.81 (1.49-2.20) and 2.04 (1.57-2.34), respectively, for dependency, all P < 0.001; and 1.37 (1.06-1.76) and 1.40 (1.07-1.85), respectively, for recurrence, P = 0.016. The findings from this study suggest that management and secondary prevention should be emphasized in elderly patients with diabetes in

  12. Mortality, Recurrence, and Dependency Rates Are Higher after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Diabetes Compared to Younger Patients

    PubMed Central

    Long, Xue; Lou, Yongzhong; Gu, Hongfei; Guo, Xiaofei; Wang, Tao; Zhu, Yanxia; Zhao, Wenjuan; Ning, Xianjia; Li, Bin; Wang, Jinghua; An, Zhongping

    2016-01-01

    Stroke has a greater effect on the elderly than on younger patients. However, the long-term outcomes associated with stroke among elderly patients with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to assess the differences in long-term outcomes between young and elderly stroke patients with diabetes. A total of 3,615 acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes were recruited for this study between 2006 and 2014. Outcomes at 12 and 36 months after stroke (including mortality, recurrence, and dependency) were compared between younger (age <75 years) and elderly (age ≥75 years) patients. The elderly group included 692 patients (19.1%) overall. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have a Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of stroke due to cardioembolism, moderate and severe stroke, and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to have hypertension and dyslipidemia, current smokers, and alcohol consumers. Mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 months after stroke were 19.0, 48.5, and 20.9% in the elderly group and 7.4, 30.9, and 15.4% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.05). Corresponding rates at 36 months after stroke were 35.4, 78.7, and 53.8% in the elderly group and 13.7, 61.7, and 43.0% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.001). The mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 and 36 months after stroke were significantly higher in the elderly group than in the younger group after adjusting for stroke subtypes, stroke severity, and risk factors. Odds ratios (95% confidence interval) at 12 and 36 months after stroke were 2.18 (1.64–2.89) and 3.10 (2.35–4.08), respectively, for mortality, all P < 0.001; 1.81 (1.49–2.20) and 2.04 (1.57–2.34), respectively, for dependency, all P < 0.001; and 1.37 (1.06–1.76) and 1.40 (1.07–1.85), respectively, for recurrence, P = 0.016. The findings from this study suggest that management and secondary prevention should be emphasized in elderly patients with

  13. Mortality, Recurrence, and Dependency Rates Are Higher after Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Diabetes Compared to Younger Patients.

    PubMed

    Long, Xue; Lou, Yongzhong; Gu, Hongfei; Guo, Xiaofei; Wang, Tao; Zhu, Yanxia; Zhao, Wenjuan; Ning, Xianjia; Li, Bin; Wang, Jinghua; An, Zhongping

    2016-01-01

    Stroke has a greater effect on the elderly than on younger patients. However, the long-term outcomes associated with stroke among elderly patients with diabetes are unknown. We aimed to assess the differences in long-term outcomes between young and elderly stroke patients with diabetes. A total of 3,615 acute ischemic stroke patients with diabetes were recruited for this study between 2006 and 2014. Outcomes at 12 and 36 months after stroke (including mortality, recurrence, and dependency) were compared between younger (age <75 years) and elderly (age ≥75 years) patients. The elderly group included 692 patients (19.1%) overall. Elderly patients were more likely than younger patients to have a Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification of stroke due to cardioembolism, moderate and severe stroke, and atrial fibrillation, but less likely to have hypertension and dyslipidemia, current smokers, and alcohol consumers. Mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 months after stroke were 19.0, 48.5, and 20.9% in the elderly group and 7.4, 30.9, and 15.4% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.05). Corresponding rates at 36 months after stroke were 35.4, 78.7, and 53.8% in the elderly group and 13.7, 61.7, and 43.0% in the younger group, respectively (all P < 0.001). The mortality, dependency, and recurrence rates at 12 and 36 months after stroke were significantly higher in the elderly group than in the younger group after adjusting for stroke subtypes, stroke severity, and risk factors. Odds ratios (95% confidence interval) at 12 and 36 months after stroke were 2.18 (1.64-2.89) and 3.10 (2.35-4.08), respectively, for mortality, all P < 0.001; 1.81 (1.49-2.20) and 2.04 (1.57-2.34), respectively, for dependency, all P < 0.001; and 1.37 (1.06-1.76) and 1.40 (1.07-1.85), respectively, for recurrence, P = 0.016. The findings from this study suggest that management and secondary prevention should be emphasized in elderly patients with diabetes in

  14. Differential Prediction of Study Success across Academic Programs in the Swedish Context: The Validity of Grades and Tests as Selection Instruments for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cliffordson, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate the predictive validity of criterion- and norm-referenced grades and the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) and, in particular, possible differences in the prediction of achievement in higher education across academic programs. The analyses were based on credit points obtained by 164,106 Swedish…

  15. Spatial statistical point prediction guidance for heating-rate-limited aeroassisted orbital transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Pradipto; Conway, Bruce A.

    2015-06-01

    Feedback control of constrained non-linear dynamical systems satisfying a certain optimality criterion and meeting a specified transfer objective in the state space is recognized as one of the most challenging problems in control theory. One approach to computing optimal feedback policies is the dynamic programming route of numerically solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation directly. In this paper an alternate and more tractable dynamic programming approach, the optimal feedback synthesis method, is utilized. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through an explicit guidance scheme for the heating-rate-constrained maneuver of an Aeroassisted Transfer Vehicle (AOTV). In optimal feedback synthesis, a feedback chart is constructed from a family of open-loop extremals, thus ensuring optimality with respect to any initial condition in the family. This paper presents a solution to the AOTV optimal feedback synthesis problem using the Gaussian process spatial prediction method of universal kriging. A closed-form expression for a near-optimal guidance law is derived. Its performance is found to be very promising; initial atmospheric entry errors due to simulated thruster misfiring are seen to be accurately corrected while the algebraic state-inequality constraint is closely respected.

  16. IMPROVED THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS OF MICROLENSING RATES FOR THE DETECTION OF PRIMORDIAL BLACK HOLE DARK MATTER

    SciTech Connect

    Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Griest, Kim

    2013-04-20

    Primordial black holes (PBHs) remain a dark matter (DM) candidate of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Previously, we proposed a new method of constraining the remaining PBH DM mass range using microlensing of stars monitored by NASA's Kepler mission. We improve this analysis using a more accurate treatment of the population of the Kepler source stars, their variability, and limb darkening. We extend the theoretically detectable PBH DM mass range down to 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -10} M{sub Sun }, two orders of magnitude below current limits and one-third order of magnitude below our previous estimate. We address how to extract the DM properties, such as mass and spatial distribution, if PBH microlensing events were detected. We correct an error in a well-known finite-source limb-darkening microlensing formula and also examine the effects of varying the light curve cadence on PBH DM detectability. We also introduce an approximation for estimating the predicted rate of detection per star as a function of the star's properties, thus allowing for selection of source stars in future missions, and extend our analysis to planned surveys, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

  17. Canine fetal heart rate: do accelerations or decelerations predict the parturition day in bitches?

    PubMed

    Gil, E M U; Garcia, D A A; Giannico, A T; Froes, T R

    2014-10-15

    Ultrasonography is a safe and efficient technique for monitoring fetal development and viability. One of the most important and widely used parameters to verify fetal viability is the fetal heart rate (HR). In human medicine, the fetal HR normally oscillates during labor in transient accelerations and decelerations associated with uterine contractions. The present study investigated whether these variations also occur in canine fetuses and its relationship to parturition. A cohort study was conducted in 15 pregnant bitches undergoing two-dimensional high-resolution ultrasonographic examination during the 8th and 9th week of gestation. Fetal HR was assessed in M-mode for 5 minutes in each fetus in all bitches. In addition, the bitches were monitored for clinical signs of imminent parturition. Associations between the HR, antepartum time, and delivery characteristics were evaluated with a Poisson regression model. Fetal HR acceleration and deceleration occurred in canine fetuses and predicted the optimal time of parturition. These findings can help veterinarians and sonographers better understand this phenomenon in canine fetuses.

  18. The development of a rating scale for the prediction of success in weight reduction.

    PubMed

    Dash, J D; Brown, R A

    1977-07-01

    A valid and reliable rating instrument was developed that has predictive value with regard to the ability to lose weight. The major constructs that the test was intended to measure were knowledge of the pragmatics of weight reduction and obesity and the role of fantasy in weight loss. Test items were drawn from research findings in the obesity literature and from subject matter experts in the fields of nutrition, internal medicine and clinical psychology. Test-retest reliability coefficients for the new instrument range from .64 to .95. Construct validity was ascertained through administration of the scale to groups of high school students (N=20), college nutrition students (N=30) and successful and unsuccessful dieters (Ns=28 and 20, respectively). It appears that the scale, The Dash-Brown Survey of Fact and Fiction in Weight Reduction (DBS), may be employed usefully to assess the remediability of obesity for potential dieters. The data further suggest that cognitive awareness of diet-related issues is significant in weight reduction.

  19. Helping from the heart: Voluntary upregulation of heart rate variability predicts altruistic behavior.

    PubMed

    Bornemann, Boris; Kok, Bethany E; Böckler, Anne; Singer, Tania

    2016-09-01

    Our various daily activities continually require regulation of our internal state. These regulatory processes covary with changes in High Frequency Heart Rate Variability (HF-HRV), a marker of parasympathetic activity. Specifically, incidental increases in HF-HRV accompany positive social engagement behavior and prosocial action. Little is known about deliberate regulation of HF-HRV and the role of voluntary parasympathetic regulation in prosocial behavior. Here, we present a novel biofeedback task that measures the ability to deliberately increase HF-HRV. In two large samples, we find that a) participants are able to voluntarily upregulate HF-HRV, and b) variation in this ability predicts individual differences in altruistic prosocial behavior, but not non-altruistic forms of prosociality, assessed through 14 different measures. Our findings suggest that self-induction of parasympathetic states is involved in altruistic action. The biofeedback task may provide a measure of deliberate parasympathetic regulation, with implications for the study of attention, emotion, and social behavior. PMID:27381930

  20. Temperature dependences of growth rates and carrying capacities of marine bacteria depart from metabolic theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Díaz-Pérez, Laura; Morán, Xosé Anxelu G

    2015-10-01

    Using the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) framework, we evaluated over a whole annual cycle the monthly responses to temperature of the growth rates (μ) and carrying capacities (K) of heterotrophic bacterioplankton at a temperate coastal site. We used experimental incubations spanning 6ºC with bacterial physiological groups identified by flow cytometry according to membrane integrity (live), nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA) and respiratory activity (CTC+). The temperature dependence of μ at the exponential phase of growth was summarized by the activation energy (E), which was variable (-0.52 to 0.72 eV) but followed a seasonal pattern, only reaching the hypothesized value for aerobic heterotrophs of 0.65 eV during the spring bloom for the most active bacterial groups (live, HNA, CTC+). K (i.e. maximum experimental abundance) peaked at 4 × 10(6) cells mL(-1) and generally covaried with μ but, contrary to MTE predictions, it did not decrease consistently with temperature. In the case of live cells, the responses of μ and K to temperature were positively correlated and related to seasonal changes in substrate availability, indicating that the responses of bacteria to warming are far from homogeneous and poorly explained by MTE at our site. PMID:26362925

  1. A comprehensive study on different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition rates in a perfusion chamber

    PubMed Central

    Pallarès, Jordi; Senan, Oriol; Guimerà, Roger; Vernet, Anton; Aguilar-Mogas, Antoni; Vilahur, Gemma; Badimon, Lina; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Cito, Salvatore

    2015-01-01

    Thrombus formation is a multiscale phenomenon triggered by platelet deposition over a protrombotic surface (eg. a ruptured atherosclerotic plaque). Despite the medical urgency for computational tools that aid in the early diagnosis of thrombotic events, the integration of computational models of thrombus formation at different scales requires a comprehensive understanding of the role and limitation of each modelling approach. We propose three different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition. Specifically, we consider measurements of platelet deposition under blood flow conditions in a perfusion chamber for different time periods (3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 minutes) at shear rates of 212 s−1, 1390 s−1 and 1690 s−1. Our modelling approaches are: i) a model based on the mass-transfer boundary layer theory; ii) a machine-learning approach; and iii) a phenomenological model. The results indicate that the three approaches on average have median errors of 21%, 20.7% and 14.2%, respectively. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using an empirical data set as a proxy for a real-patient scenario in which practitioners have accumulated data on a given number of patients and want to obtain a diagnosis for a new patient about whom they only have the current observation of a certain number of variables. PMID:26391513

  2. Prevalence and Predictive Value of Dyspnea Ratings in Hospitalized Patients: Pilot Studies

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Jennifer P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Dyspnea (breathing discomfort) can be as powerfully aversive as pain, yet is not routinely assessed and documented in the clinical environment. Routine identification and documentation of dyspnea is the first step to improved symptom management and it may also identify patients at risk of negative clinical outcomes. Objective To estimate the prevalence of dyspnea and of dyspnea-associated risk among hospitalized patients. Design Two pilot prospective cohort studies. Setting Single academic medical center. Patients Consecutive patients admitted to four inpatient units: cardiology, hematology/oncology, medicine, and bariatric surgery. Measurements In Study 1, nurses documented current and recent patient-reported dyspnea at the time of the Initial Patient Assessment in 581 inpatients. In Study 2, nurses documented current dyspnea at least once every nursing shift in 367 patients. We describe the prevalence of burdensome dyspnea, and compare it to pain. We also compared dyspnea ratings with a composite of adverse outcomes: 1) receipt of care from the hospital’s rapid response system, 2) transfer to the intensive care unit, or 3) death in hospital. We defined burdensome dyspnea as a rating of 4 or more on a 10-point scale. Results Prevalence of burdensome current dyspnea upon admission (Study 1) was 13% (77 of 581, 95% CI 11%-16%). Prevalence of burdensome dyspnea at some time during the hospitalization (Study 2) was 16% (57 of 367, 95% CI 12%-20%). Dyspnea was associated with higher odds of a negative outcome. Conclusions In two pilot studies, we identified a significant symptom burden of dyspnea in hospitalized patients. Patients reporting dyspnea may benefit from a more careful focus on symptom management and may represent a population at greater risk for negative outcomes. PMID:27070144

  3. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

  4. Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

  5. Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.

  6. Complexity of Heart Rate Variability Can Predict Stroke-In-Evolution in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Chih-Hao; Huang, Pei-Wen; Tang, Sung-Chun; Shieh, Jiann-Shing; Lai, Dar-Ming; Wu, An-Yu; Jeng, Jiann-Shing

    2015-12-01

    About one-third of acute stroke patients may experience stroke-in-evolution, which is often associated with a worse outcome. Recently, we showed that multiscale entropy (MSE), a non-linear method for analysis of heart rate variability (HRV), is an early outcome predictor in non-atrial fibrillation (non-AF) stroke patients. We aimed to further investigate MSE as a predictor of SIE. We included 90 non-AF ischemic stroke patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Nineteen (21.1%) patients met the criteria of SIE, which was defined as an increase in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥2 points within 3 days of admission. The MSE of HRV was analyzed from 1-hour continuous ECG signals during the first 24 hours of admission. The complexity index was defined as the area under the MSE curve. Compared with patients without SIE, those with SIE had a significantly lower complexity index value (21.3 ± 8.5 vs 26.5 ± 7.7, P = 0.012). After adjustment for clinical variables, patients with higher complexity index values were significantly less likely to have SIE (odds ratio = 0.897, 95% confidence interval 0.818-0.983, P = 0.020). In summary, early assessment of HRV by MSE can be a potential predictor of SIE in ICU-admitted non-AF ischemic stroke patients.

  7. Electron flow to oxygen in higher plants and algae: rates and control of direct photoreduction (Mehler reaction) and rubisco oxygenase.

    PubMed

    Badger, M R; von Caemmerer, S; Ruuska, S; Nakano, H

    2000-10-29

    Linear electron transport in chloroplasts produces a number of reduced components associated with photosystem I (PS I) that may subsequently participate in reactions that reduce O2. The two primary reactions that have been extensively studied are: first, the direct reduction of O2 to superoxide by reduced donors associated with PS I (the Mehler reaction), and second, the rubisco oxygenase (ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase oxygenase EC 4.1.1.39) reaction and associated peroxisomal and mitochondrial reactions of the photorespiratory pathway. This paper reviews a number of recent and past studies with higher plants, algae and cyanobacteria that have attempted to quantify O2 fluxes under various conditions and their contributions to a number of roles, including photon energy dissipation. In C3 and Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, a Mehler O2 uptake reaction is unlikely to support a significant flow of electron transport (probably less than 10%). In addition, if it were present it would appear to scale with photosynthetic carbon oxidation cycle (PCO) and photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle (PCR) activity This is supported by studies with antisense tobacco plants with reduced rubisco at low and high temperatures and high light, as well as studies with potatoes, grapes and madrone during water stress. The lack of significant Mehler in these plants directly argues for a strong control of Mehler reaction in the absence of ATP consumption by the PCR and PCO cycles. The difference between C3 and C4 plants is primarily that the level of light-dependent O2 uptake is generally much lower in C4 plants and is relatively insensitive to the external CO2 concentration. Such a major difference is readily attributed to the operation of the C4 CO2 concentrating mechanism. Algae show a range of light-dependent O2 uptake rates, similar to C4 plants. As in C4 plants, the O2 uptake appears to be largely insensitive to CO2, even in species that lack a CO2 concentrating

  8. Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

  9. Machine learning and linear regression models to predict catchment-level base cation weathering rates across the southern Appalachian Mountain region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Povak, Nicholas A.; Hessburg, Paul F.; McDonnell, Todd C.; Reynolds, Keith M.; Sullivan, Timothy J.; Salter, R. Brion; Cosby, Bernard J.

    2014-04-01

    Accurate estimates of soil mineral weathering are required for regional critical load (CL) modeling to identify ecosystems at risk of the deleterious effects from acidification. Within a correlative modeling framework, we used modeled catchment-level base cation weathering (BCw) as the response variable to identify key environmental correlates and predict a continuous map of BCw within the southern Appalachian Mountain region. More than 50 initial candidate predictor variables were submitted to a variety of conventional and machine learning regression models. Predictors included aspects of the underlying geology, soils, geomorphology, climate, topographic context, and acidic deposition rates. Low BCw rates were predicted in catchments with low precipitation, siliceous lithology, low soil clay, nitrogen and organic matter contents, and relatively high levels of canopy cover in mixed deciduous and coniferous forest types. Machine learning approaches, particularly random forest modeling, significantly improved model prediction of catchment-level BCw rates over traditional linear regression, with higher model accuracy and lower error rates. Our results confirmed findings from other studies, but also identified several influential climatic predictor variables, interactions, and nonlinearities among the predictors. Results reported here will be used to support regional sulfur critical loads modeling to identify areas impacted by industrially derived atmospheric S inputs. These methods are readily adapted to other regions where accurate CL estimates are required over broad spatial extents to inform policy and management decisions.

  10. Do More Online Instructional Ratings Lead to Better Prediction of Instructor Quality?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Shane; Walia, Bhavneet; Potter, Joel; Linna, Kenneth W.

    2011-01-01

    Online instructional ratings are taken by many with a grain of salt. This study analyzes the ability of said ratings to estimate the official (university-administered) instructional ratings of the same respective university instructors. Given self-selection among raters, we further test whether more online ratings of instructors lead to better…

  11. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Park, Andres E.; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M.; Baker, Laura A.

    2015-01-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress. PMID:26049136

  12. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents.

    PubMed

    Park, Andres E; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M; Baker, Laura A

    2015-08-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress.

  13. The prediction of the dissolution rate constant by mixing rules: the study of acetaminophen batches.

    PubMed

    Lee, Tu; Hou, Hung Ju; Hsieh, Hsiang Yu; Su, Yan Chan; Wang, Yeh Wen; Hsu, Fu Bin

    2008-05-01

    ), k(2), and k(mix) for the 62 wt percent formulation were encompassed by the logarithmic mixing rule, Hashin and Shtrikman upper bound, and the series mixing rule. Apparently, the best suited mixing rules could be used to predict the right proportions of either the powder mixture (Method I) or the granular mixture (Method II) for obtaining any other desired dissolution rate constant, k(mix), whose value fell in between the values of k(1) and k(2). PMID:18473235

  14. The prediction of the dissolution rate constant by mixing rules: the study of acetaminophen batches.

    PubMed

    Lee, Tu; Hou, Hung Ju; Hsieh, Hsiang Yu; Su, Yan Chan; Wang, Yeh Wen; Hsu, Fu Bin

    2008-05-01

    ), k(2), and k(mix) for the 62 wt percent formulation were encompassed by the logarithmic mixing rule, Hashin and Shtrikman upper bound, and the series mixing rule. Apparently, the best suited mixing rules could be used to predict the right proportions of either the powder mixture (Method I) or the granular mixture (Method II) for obtaining any other desired dissolution rate constant, k(mix), whose value fell in between the values of k(1) and k(2).

  15. Dehumidification: Prediction of Condensate Flow Rate for Plate-Fin Tube Heat Exchangers Using the Latent j Factor

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, V.D.; Chen, D.T.; Conklin, J.C.

    1999-03-15

    Condensate flow rate is an important factor in designing dehumidifiers or evaporators. In this paper, the latentj fimtor is used to analyze the dehumidification performance of two plate-fin tube heat exchangers. This latent j factor, analogous to the total j factor, is a flmction of the mass transfa coefllcient, the volumetric air flow rate, and the Schmidt number. This latent j factor did predict condensate flow rate more directly and accurately than any other sensiblej factor method. The Iatentj factor has been used in the present study because the sensible j factor correlations presented in the literature failed to predict the condensate flow rate at high Reynolds numbers. Results show that the latent j i%ctor em be simply correlated as a fhnction of the Reynolds number based on the tube outside diameter and number of rows of the heat exchanger.

  16. A framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates.

    PubMed

    Helbling, Damian E; Johnson, David R; Lee, Tae Kwon; Scheidegger, Andreas; Fenner, Kathrin

    2015-03-01

    The rates at which wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) microbial communities biotransform specific substrates can differ by orders of magnitude among WWTP communities. Differences in taxonomic compositions among WWTP communities may predict differences in the rates of some types of biotransformations. In this work, we present a novel framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates. We selected ten WWTPs with substantial variation in their environmental and operational metrics and measured the in situ ammonia biotransformation rate constants in nine of them. We isolated total RNA from samples from each WWTP and analyzed 16S rRNA sequence reads. We then developed multivariate models between the measured abundances of specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence reads and the ammonia biotransformation rate constants. We constructed model scenarios that systematically explored the effects of model regularization, model linearity and non-linearity, and aggregation of 16S rRNA sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) as a function of sequence dissimilarity threshold (SDT). A large percentage (greater than 80%) of model scenarios resulted in well-performing and significant models at intermediate SDTs of 0.13-0.14 and 0.26. The 16S rRNA sequences consistently selected into the well-performing and significant models at those SDTs were classified as Nitrosomonas and Nitrospira groups. We then extend the framework by applying it to the biotransformation rate constants of ten micropollutants measured in batch reactors seeded with the ten WWTP communities. We identified phylogenetic groups that were robustly selected into all well-performing and significant models constructed with biotransformation rates of isoproturon, propachlor, ranitidine, and venlafaxine. These phylogenetic groups can be used as predictive biomarkers of WWTP microbial community activity towards these specific

  17. Mechanisms of solvent evaporation encapsulation processes: prediction of solvent evaporation rate.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Schwendeman, S P

    1999-10-01

    The mechanism of organic solvent evaporation during microencapsulation and its role during microsphere hardening has been investigated. Evaporation and encapsulation studies were carried out in a jacketed beaker, filled with aqueous hardening solution, which was maintained at constant temperature and constant stirring rate in the turbulent regime. Evaporation of dissolved methylene chloride (MC), ethyl acetate (EA), and acetonitrile (ACN) was examined by the decline in organic solvent concentration in the hardening bath, which was monitored by gas chromatography. The evaporation from the bath followed first-order kinetics under dilute conditions (e.g., MC < 3 mg/mL), yielding an overall permeability coefficient, P. The value of P was theoretically related to the Kolmogorov length-scale of turbulence under conditions that favor liquid-side transport control. According to theory, factors that favored liquid-phase control (as opposed to gas-phase control) were those that favored a high Henry's law constant [i.e., elevated temperature near the normal boiling point (bp) of the organic solvent] and properties of the dissolved organic solvent (i.e., low normal bp and low aqueous solubility). These theoretical hypotheses were confirmed by (1) correlating the experimentally determined P with process variables raised to the appropriate power according to theory, r(2) = 0.95 (i.e., P approximately rotational speed, omega(3/4), impeller diameter, d (5/4), volume of hardening bath, V(-1/4), and the product of kinematic viscosity and diffusion coefficient, nu(-5/12)D (2/3)), and (2) illustrating that at constant temperature, the tendency of the evaporation system to obey liquid-side transport control follows the same order of increasing Henry's law constant (i.e., MC > EA > ACN). To establish the relationship of evaporation with microsphere hardening, the decline in MC concentration was determined in both the continuous and dispersed polymer phases during microencapsulation. By

  18. Dynamic analysis of heart rate may predict subsequent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Makikallio, T. H.; Seppanen, T.; Airaksinen, K. E.; Koistinen, J.; Tulppo, M. P.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.

    1997-01-01

    Dynamics analysis of RR interval behavior and traditional measures of heart rate variability were compared between postinfarction patients with and without vulnerability to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a case-control study. Short-term fractal correlation of heart rate dynamics was better than traditional measures of heart rate variability in differentiating patients with and without life-threatening arrhythmias.

  19. Subject-Specific Tendon-Aponeurosis Definition in Hill-Type Model Predicts Higher Muscle Forces in Dynamic Tasks

    PubMed Central

    Gerus, Pauline; Rao, Guillaume; Berton, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Neuromusculoskeletal models are a common method to estimate muscle forces. Developing accurate neuromusculoskeletal models is a challenging task due to the complexity of the system and large inter-subject variability. The estimation of muscles force is based on the mechanical properties of tendon-aponeurosis complex. Most neuromusculoskeletal models use a generic definition of the tendon-aponeurosis complex based on in vitro test, perhaps limiting their validity. Ultrasonography allows subject-specific estimates of the tendon-aponeurosis complex’s mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of subject-specific mechanical properties of the tendon-aponeurosis complex on a neuromusculoskeletal model of the ankle joint. Seven subjects performed isometric contractions from which the tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was estimated. Hopping and running tasks were performed and muscle forces were estimated using subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis and generic tendon properties. Two ultrasound probes positioned over the muscle-tendon junction and the mid-belly were combined with motion capture to estimate the in vivo tendon and aponeurosis strain of the medial head of gastrocnemius muscle. The tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was scaled for the other ankle muscles based on tendon and aponeurosis length of each muscle measured by ultrasonography. The EMG-driven model was calibrated twice - using the generic tendon definition and a subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis force-strain definition. The use of subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a higher muscle force estimate for the soleus muscle and the plantar-flexor group, and to a better model prediction of the ankle joint moment compared to the model estimate which used a generic definition. Furthermore, the subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a decoupling behaviour between the muscle fibre and muscle-tendon unit in agreement with

  20. Subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition in Hill-type model predicts higher muscle forces in dynamic tasks.

    PubMed

    Gerus, Pauline; Rao, Guillaume; Berton, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Neuromusculoskeletal models are a common method to estimate muscle forces. Developing accurate neuromusculoskeletal models is a challenging task due to the complexity of the system and large inter-subject variability. The estimation of muscles force is based on the mechanical properties of tendon-aponeurosis complex. Most neuromusculoskeletal models use a generic definition of the tendon-aponeurosis complex based on in vitro test, perhaps limiting their validity. Ultrasonography allows subject-specific estimates of the tendon-aponeurosis complex's mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of subject-specific mechanical properties of the tendon-aponeurosis complex on a neuromusculoskeletal model of the ankle joint. Seven subjects performed isometric contractions from which the tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was estimated. Hopping and running tasks were performed and muscle forces were estimated using subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis and generic tendon properties. Two ultrasound probes positioned over the muscle-tendon junction and the mid-belly were combined with motion capture to estimate the in vivo tendon and aponeurosis strain of the medial head of gastrocnemius muscle. The tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was scaled for the other ankle muscles based on tendon and aponeurosis length of each muscle measured by ultrasonography. The EMG-driven model was calibrated twice - using the generic tendon definition and a subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis force-strain definition. The use of subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a higher muscle force estimate for the soleus muscle and the plantar-flexor group, and to a better model prediction of the ankle joint moment compared to the model estimate which used a generic definition. Furthermore, the subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a decoupling behaviour between the muscle fibre and muscle-tendon unit in agreement with

  1. MERGER RATES OF DOUBLE NEUTRON STARS AND STELLAR ORIGIN BLACK HOLES: THE IMPACT OF INITIAL CONDITIONS ON BINARY EVOLUTION PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Mink, S. E. de; Belczynski, K. E-mail: kbelczyn@astrouw.edu.pl

    2015-11-20

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor of 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.

  2. Merger Rates of Double Neutron Stars and Stellar Origin Black Holes: The Impact of Initial Conditions on Binary Evolution Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Mink, S. E.; Belczynski, K.

    2015-11-01

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor of 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.

  3. Higher Dropout Rate in Non-Native Patients than in Native Patients in Rehabilitation in The Netherlands

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloots, Maurits; Scheppers, Emmanuel F.; van de Weg, Frans B.; Dekker, Jos H.; Bartels, Edien A.; Geertzen, Jan H.; Dekker, Joost

    2009-01-01

    Dropout from a rehabilitation programme often occurs in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain of non-native origin. However, the exact dropout rate is not known. The objective of this study was to determine the difference in dropout rate between native and non-native patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain participating in a…

  4. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-06-05

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have.

  5. Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

  6. The (B)link Between Creativity and Dopamine: Spontaneous Eye Blink Rates Predict and Dissociate Divergent and Convergent Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermahini, Soghra Akbari; Hommel, Bernhard

    2010-01-01

    Human creativity has been claimed to rely on the neurotransmitter dopamine, but evidence is still sparse. We studied whether individual performance (N=117) in divergent thinking (alternative uses task) and convergent thinking (remote association task) can be predicted by the individual spontaneous eye blink rate (EBR), a clinical marker of…

  7. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition

    PubMed Central

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers’ interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R2 = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R2 = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R2 = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age. PMID:25398893

  8. The Prediction of Teacher Morale Using the Supervisory Conference Rating, the Zones of Indifference Instrument and Selected Personal Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackbourn, Joe M.; Wilkes, Sam T.

    A prediction equation for teacher morale was developed from the responses of 236 teachers in a large school system in Mississippi. The Supervisory Conference Rating (SCR) was used to measure teachers' perceptions of the supervisory conference following observation by the principal. The Zones of Indifference of these teachers were measured with the…

  9. Expanding the range for predicting critical flow rates of gas wells producing from normally pressured waterdrive reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Upchurch, E.R. )

    1989-08-01

    The critical flow rate of a gas well is the minimum flow rate required to prevent accumulation of liquids in the tubing. Theoretical models currently available for estimating critical flow rates are restricted to wells with water/gas ratios less than 150bbl/MMcf (0.84 X 10/sup -3/ m/sup 3//m/sup 3/). For wells producing at higher water/gas ratios from normally pressured waterdrive reservoirs, a method of estimating critical flow rates is derived through use of an empirical multiphase-flow correlation.

  10. Predicting fractional bed load transport rates: Application of the Wilcock-Crowe equations to a regulated gravel bed river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gaeuman, D.; Andrews, E.D.; Kraus, A.; Smith, W.

    2009-01-01

    Bed load samples from four locations in the Trinity River of northern California are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Wilcock-Crowe bed load transport equations for predicting fractional bed load transport rates. Bed surface particles become smaller and the fraction of sand on the bed increases with distance downstream from Lewiston Dam. The dimensionless reference shear stress for the mean bed particle size (t*rm) is largest near the dam, but varies relatively little between the more downstream locations. The relation between t*rm and the reference shear stresses for other size fractions is constant across all locations. Total bed load transport rates predicted with the Wilcock-Crowe equations are within a factor of 2 of sampled transport rates for 68% of all samples. The Wilcock-Crowe equations nonetheless consistently under-predict the transport of particles larger than 128 mm, frequently by more than an order of magnitude. Accurate prediction of the transport rates of the largest particles is important for models in which the evolution of the surface grain size distribution determines subsequent bed load transport rates. Values of term estimated from bed load samples are up to 50% larger than those predicted with the Wilcock-Crowe equations, and sampled bed load transport approximates equal mobility across a wider range of grain sizes than is implied by the equations. Modifications to theWilcock-Crowe equation for determining t*rm and the hiding function used to scale term to other grain size fractions are proposed to achieve the best fit to observed bed load transport in the Trinity River. Copyright 2009 by the American eophysical Union.

  11. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2016-01-01

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits. PMID:26835532

  12. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2016-01-01

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  13. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2014-12-01

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  14. Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-02-01

    Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

  15. New predictive equations for estimation of basal metabolic rates of adolescents: tropics versus temperate.

    PubMed

    Noor, M I; Poh, B K; Zawiah, H; Henry, C J K

    2003-01-01

    The energy and nutritional requirements of adolescents are influenced primarily by the growth spurt that occurs at puberty, and also by the need to maintain adequate levels of physical activity. Predictions of BMR have gained attention since the publication of the FAO/WHO/UNU (1985) expert consultation report, which adopted the principle of relying on energy expenditure rather than energy intake to derive requirement of individuals. While the report predicts BMR accurately in many individuals from temperate climate, they are said to be less accurate in predicting BMR in populations living in the tropics. The collation of worldwide data on basal metabolism indicated that, relative to adults, there was a paucity of data in other age groups including the adolescents. Although several BMR studies among children had been reported in the 90's, the data in normal weight children are almost exclusively from small control groups in obesity studies. Furthermore, we know little as to whether BMR of children differs in differing climatic conditions. This paper presents predictive equations for estimating BMR from a two-centre study, Bangi (Malaysia) and Oxford (UK) and to compare the results with the currently used predictive equations. PMID:15806886

  16. Speaking rate, voice-onset time, and quantity: the search for higher-order invariants for two Icelandic speech cues.

    PubMed

    Pind, J

    1995-04-01

    The temporal structure of speech has been shown to be highly variable. Speaking rate, stress, and other factors influence the duration of individual speech sounds. The highly elastic nature of speech would seem to pose a problem for the listener, especially with respect to the perception of temporal speech cues such as voice-onset time (VOT) and quantity: How does the listener disentangle those temporal changes which are linguistically significant from those which are extrinsic to the linguistic message? This paper reports data on the behavior of two Icelandic speech cues at different speaking rates. The results show that manipulations of rate have the effect of slightly blurring the distinction between unaspirated and aspirated stops. Despite great changes in the absolute durations of vowels and consonants, the two categories of syllables--V:C and VC:--are nonetheless kept totally distinct. In two perceptual experiments, it is shown that while the ratio of vowel to rhyme duration is the primary cue to quantity and remains invariant at different rates, no such ratio can be defined for VOT. These results imply that quantity is the only one of these two speech cues that is self-normalizing for rate. Models of rate-dependent speech processing need to address this difference.

  17. Words That Fascinate the Listener: Predicting Affective Ratings of On-Line Lectures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weninger, Felix; Staudt, Pascal; Schuller, Björn

    2013-01-01

    In a large scale study on 843 transcripts of Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED) talks, the authors address the relation between word usage and categorical affective ratings of lectures by a large group of internet users. Users rated the lectures by assigning one or more predefined tags which relate to the affective state evoked in the…

  18. The Effects of Base Rate, Selection Ratio, Sample Size, and Reliability of Predictors on Predictive Efficiency Indices Associated with Logistic Regression Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Soderstrom, Irina R.; Leitner, Dennis W.

    While it is imperative that attempts be made to assess the predictive accuracy of any prediction model, traditional measures of predictive accuracy have been criticized as suffering from "the base rate problem." The base rate refers to the relative frequency of occurrence of the event being studied in the population of interest, and the problem…

  19. Environment and feeding change the ability of heart rate to predict metabolism in resting Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus).

    PubMed

    Young, Beth L; Rosen, David A S; Haulena, Martin; Hindle, Allyson G; Trites, Andrew W

    2011-01-01

    The ability to use heart rate (fh) to predict oxygen consumption rates ([Formula: see text]) in Steller sea lions and other pinnipeds has been investigated in fasting animals. However, it is unknown whether established fh:[Formula: see text] relationships hold under more complex physiological situations, such as when animals are feeding or digesting. We assessed whether fh could accurately predict [Formula: see text] in trained Steller sea lions while fasting and after being fed. Using linear mixed-effects models, we derived unique equations to describe the fh:[Formula: see text] relationship for fasted sea lions resting on land and in water. Feeding did not significantly change the fh:[Formula: see text] relationship on land. However, Steller sea lions in water displayed a different fh:[Formula: see text] relationship after consuming a 4-kg meal compared with the fasting condition. Incorporating comparable published fh:[Formula: see text] data from Steller sea lions showed a distinct effect of feeding after a 6-kg meal. Ultimately, our study illustrated that both feeding and physical environment are statistically relevant when deriving [Formula: see text] from telemetered fh, but that only environment affects the practical ability to predict metabolism from fh. Updating current bioenergetic models with data gathered using these predictive fh:[Formula: see text] equations will yield more accurate estimates of metabolic rates of free-ranging Steller sea lions under a variety of physiological, behavioral, and environmental states.

  20. Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women.

    PubMed

    Lupis, Sarah B; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M

    2014-11-01

    While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6±1.7 yr) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p>.23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β=0.41, p=.04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β=0.67 p=.004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β=0.51, p=.033; β=0.46, p=.066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p>.23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health-promoting ways of

  1. Combining quantitative trait loci analysis with physiological models to predict genotype-specific transpiration rates.

    PubMed

    Reuning, Gretchen A; Bauerle, William L; Mullen, Jack L; McKay, John K

    2015-04-01

    Transpiration is controlled by evaporative demand and stomatal conductance (gs ), and there can be substantial genetic variation in gs . A key parameter in empirical models of transpiration is minimum stomatal conductance (g0 ), a trait that can be measured and has a large effect on gs and transpiration. In Arabidopsis thaliana, g0 exhibits both environmental and genetic variation, and quantitative trait loci (QTL) have been mapped. We used this information to create a genetically parameterized empirical model to predict transpiration of genotypes. For the parental lines, this worked well. However, in a recombinant inbred population, the predictions proved less accurate. When based only upon their genotype at a single g0 QTL, genotypes were less distinct than our model predicted. Follow-up experiments indicated that both genotype by environment interaction and a polygenic inheritance complicate the application of genetic effects into physiological models. The use of ecophysiological or 'crop' models for predicting transpiration of novel genetic lines will benefit from incorporating further knowledge of the genetic control and degree of independence of core traits/parameters underlying gs variation.

  2. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual, family or…

  3. Speed of Inhibition Predicts Teacher--Rated Medication Response in Boys with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scheres, Anouk; Oosterlaan, Jaap; Sergeant, Joseph A.

    2006-01-01

    This study aimed at investigating whether one of the key deficits in Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), slow response inhibition, predicted the response to methylphenidate (MPH) treatment. In order to address this issue, we used Stop Signal Reaction Times (SSRTs) measured at baseline in 20 medication-naive boys with ADHD as…

  4. Predicting End-of-Semester Interest and Self-Efficacy from Course and Professor Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riconscente, Michelle M.; Seli, Helena

    2012-01-01

    Prior research has shown that both self-efficacy and interest are related to important academic processes outcomes such as use of deep strategies, persistence, attention, and achievement. However, little research has examined whether course and professor characteristics are predictive of undergraduates' self-efficacy and interest. The present…

  5. Predicting metabolic rate across walking speed: One fit for all body sizes?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We formulated a "one-size-fits-all" model that predicts the energy requirements of level human walking from height, weight, and walking speed. Our three-component model theorizes that the energy expended per kilogram per stride is independent of stature at mechanically equivalent walking speeds. We ...

  6. Falling Off Track: How Teacher-Student Relationships Predict Early High School Failure Rates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Shazia Rafiullah

    This paper examines the relationship between the climate of teacher-student relations within a school and individual student's likelihood of freshman year success. Using administrative data from the Chicago Public Schools and survey data, researchers used hierarchical linear modeling to determine whether teacher-student climate predicts students'…

  7. Conventional heart rate variability analysis of ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings fails to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vybiral, T.; Glaeser, D. H.; Goldberger, A. L.; Rigney, D. R.; Hess, K. R.; Mietus, J.; Skinner, J. E.; Francis, M.; Pratt, C. M.

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this report was to study heart rate variability in Holter recordings of patients who experienced ventricular fibrillation during the recording. BACKGROUND. Decreased heart rate variability is recognized as a long-term predictor of overall and arrhythmic death after myocardial infarction. It was therefore postulated that heart rate variability would be lowest when measured immediately before ventricular fibrillation. METHODS. Conventional indexes of heart rate variability were calculated from Holter recordings of 24 patients with structural heart disease who had ventricular fibrillation during monitoring. The control group consisted of 19 patients with coronary artery disease, of comparable age and left ventricular ejection fraction, who had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia but no ventricular fibrillation. RESULTS. Heart rate variability did not differ between the two groups, and no consistent trends in heart rate variability were observed before ventricular fibrillation occurred. CONCLUSIONS. Although conventional heart rate variability is an independent long-term predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction, its clinical utility as a short-term predictor of life-threatening arrhythmias remains to be elucidated.

  8. TOPICAL REVIEW: Predictions for the rates of compact binary coalescences observable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Aoudia, S.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Aronsson, M.; Arun, K. G.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D. E.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, D.; Barnum, S.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th S.; Behnke, B.; Beker, M. G.; Belczynski, K.; Benacquista, M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bigotta, S.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Blomberg, A.; Boccara, C.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Boyle, M.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Campsie, P.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande Mottin, E.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corda, C.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coulon, J. P.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Danilishin, S. L.; Dannenberg, R.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dari, A.; Das, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Davis, A.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; del Prete, M.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Devanka, P.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Dorsher, S.; Douglas, E. S. D.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Dueck, J.; Dumas, J. C.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, Y.; Farr, B. F.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flanigan, M.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Forsi, E.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J. D.; Franc, J.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gholami, I.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, C.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hall, P.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E.; Hoyland, D.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, H.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Krause, T.; Kringel, V.; Krishnamurthy, S.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kullman, J.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Landry, M.; Lang, M.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lazzarini, A.; Leaci, P.; Leong, J.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Luan, J.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Mackowski, J. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Mak, C.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIvor, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; Meadors, G.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Merill, L.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreau, J.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Morioka, T.; Mors, K.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; MowLowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Nash, T.; Nawrodt, R.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; Oldenburg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Pardi, S.; Pareja, M.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Penn, S.; Peralta, C.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabaste, O.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radke, T.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Röver, C.; Rogstad, S.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Sakosky, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santostasi, G.; Saraf, S.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Singer, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Speirits, F. C.; Stein, A. J.; Stein, L. C.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Trummer, J.; Tseng, K.; Ugolini, D.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vaishnav, B.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Wei, P.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yu, P. P.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

    2010-09-01

    We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr-1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr-1 MWEG-1 to 1000 Myr-1 MWEG-1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO-Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10-4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron-star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO-Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

  9. Further tests of a model-based scheme for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rickard, W. W.; Levison, W. H.

    1981-01-01

    A methodology was demonstrated for assessing longitudinal-axis handling qualities of transport aircraft on the basis of closed-loop criteria. Six longitudinal-axis approach configurations were studied covering a range of handling quality problems that included the presence of flexible aircraft modes. Using closed-loop performance requirements derived from task analyses and pilot interviews, predictions of performance/workload tradeoffs were obtained using an analytical pilot/vehicle model. A subsequent manned simulation study yielded objective performance measures and Cooper-Harper pilot ratings that were largely consistent with each other and with analytic predictions.

  10. CFD Prediction for Spin Rate of Fixed Canards on a Spinning Projectile

    SciTech Connect

    Ji, X. L.; Jia, Ch. Y.; Jiang, T. Y.

    2011-09-28

    A computational study performed for spin rate of fixed cancards on a spinning projectile is presented in this paper. The cancards configurations provide challenges in terms of the determination of the aerodynamic forces and moments and the flow field changes which could have significant effect on the stability, performance, and corrected round accuracy. Advanced time accurate Navier-Stokes computations have been performed to compute the spin rate associated with the spinning motion of the cancards configurations at supersonic speed. The results show that roll-damping moment of cancards varies linearly with the spin rate at supersonic velocity.

  11. PREDICTION OF VO2PEAK USING OMNI RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION FROM A SUBMAXIMAL CYCLE EXERCISE TEST

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Ryan J.; Goss, Fredric L.; Nagle-Stilley, Elizabeth F.; Gallagher, Michael; Schafer, Mark A.; Kim, Kevin H.; Robertson, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The primary aim of this study was to develop statistical models to predict peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) using OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion measured during submaximal cycle ergometry. Men (mean ± standard error: 20.90 ± 0.42 yrs) and women (21.59 ± 0.49 yrs) participants (n = 81) completed a load-incremented maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Simultaneous multiple linear regression was used to develop separate VO2peak statistical models using submaximal ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body, legs, and chest/breathing as predictor variables. VO2peak (L·min−1) predicted for men and women from ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.03 ± 0.04), legs (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.04 ± 0.04) and chest/breathing (3.02 ± 0.05; 2.03 ± 0.03) were similar with measured VO2peak (3.02 ± 0.10; 2.03 ± 0.06, ps > .05). Statistical models based on submaximal OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion provide an easily administered and accurate method to predict VO2peak. PMID:25068750

  12. Multiscale Entropy of the Heart Rate Variability for the Prediction of an Ischemic Stroke in Patients with Permanent Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Hayano, Junichiro; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Inamasu, Joji; Yamamoto, Mayumi; Ichikawa, Tomohide; Sobue, Yoshihiro; Harada, Masehide; Ozaki, Yukio

    2015-01-01

    Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant risk factor for ischemic strokes, and making a robust risk stratification scheme would be important. Few studies have examined whether nonlinear dynamics of the heart rate could predict ischemic strokes in AF. We examined whether a novel complexity measurement of the heart rate variability called multiscale entropy (MSE) was a useful risk stratification measure of ischemic strokes in patients with permanent AF. Methods and Results We examined 173 consecutive patients (age 69±11 years) with permanent AF who underwent 24-hour Holter electrocardiography from April 2005 to December 2006. We assessed several frequency ranges of the MSE and CHA2DS2-VASc score (1 point for congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, vascular disease, an age 65 to 74 years, and a female sex and 2 points for an age≥75 years and a stroke or transient ischemic attack). We found 22 (13%) incident ischemic strokes during a mean follow up of 3.8-years. The average value of the MSE in the very-low frequency subrange (90–300 s, MeanEnVLF2) was significantly higher in patients who developed ischemic strokes than in those who did not (0.68±0.15 vs. 0.60±0.14, P<0.01). There was no significant difference in the C-statistic between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and MeanEnVLF2 (0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.43–0.69 vs. 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.53–0.79). After an adjustment for the age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, and antithrombotic agent, a Cox hazard regression model revealed that the MeanEnVLF2 was an independent predictor of an ischemic stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.17–2.07, P<0.01). Conclusion The MeanEnVLF2 in 24-hour Holter electrocardiography is a useful risk stratification measure of ischemic strokes during the long-term follow-up in patients with permanent AF. PMID:26325058

  13. Multi-scale heart rate dynamics detected by phase-rectified signal averaging predicts mortality after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    Kisohara, Masaya; Stein, Phyllis K.; Yoshida, Yutaka; Suzuki, Mari; Iizuka, Narushi; Carney, Robert M.; Watkins, Lana L.; Freedland, Kenneth E.; Blumenthal, James A.; Hayano, Junichiro

    2013-01-01

    Aims Acceleration and deceleration capacity (AC and DC) for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics are powerful predictors of mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We examined if AC and DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics also have independent predictive value. Methods and results We studied 24-hr Holter electrcardiograms in 708 post-AMI patients who were followed up for up to 30 months thereafter. Acceleration capacity and DC was calculated with the time scales of T (window size defining heart rate) and s (wavelet scale) from 1 to 500 s and compared their prognostic values with conventional measures (ACconv and DCconv) that were calculated with (T,s) = [1,2 (beat)]. During the follow-up, 47 patients died. Both increased ACconv and decreased DCconv predicted mortality (C statistic, 0.792 and 0.797). Concordantly, sharp peaks of C statistics were observed at (T,s) = [2,7 (sec)] for both increased AC and decreased DC (0.762 and 0.768), but there were larger peaks of C statistics at around [30,60 (sec)] for both (0.783 and 0.796). The C statistic was greater for DC than AC at (30,60) (P = 0.0012). Deceleration capacity at (30,60) was a significant predictor even after adjusted for ACconv (P = 0.020) and DCconv (P = 0.028), but the predictive power of AC at (30,60) was no longer significant. Conclusion A decrease in DC for minute-order long-term heart rate dynamics is a strong predictor for post-AMI mortality and the predictive power is independent of ACconv and DCconv for beat-to-beat short-term heart rate dynamics. PMID:23248218

  14. Middle-aged to elderly women have a higher asymptomatic infection rate with Mycobacterium avium complex, regardless of body habitus.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, Tomoyasu; Fujita-Suzuki, Yukiko; Mori, Masaaki; Carpenter, Stephen M; Fujiwara, Hiroshi; Uwamino, Yoshifumi; Tamizu, Eiko; Yano, Ikuya; Kawabe, Hiroshi; Hasegawa, Naoki

    2016-04-01

    Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) pulmonary disease is prevalent in middle-aged to elderly women with a thin body habitus. By comparing the rate of serologically diagnosed asymptomatic MAC infection and body mass index among 1033 healthy subjects, we find that middle-aged to elderly women became infected with MAC, regardless of their body habitus.

  15. A higher illuminance induces alertness even during office hours: findings on subjective measures, task performance and heart rate measures.

    PubMed

    Smolders, K C H J; de Kort, Y A W; Cluitmans, P J M

    2012-08-20

    Nocturnal white light exposure has shown marked results on subjective and objective indicators of alertness, vitality and mood, yet effects of white light during daytime and under usual office work conditions have not been investigated extensively. The current study employed a mixed-group design (N=32), testing effects of two illuminance levels (200lx or 1000lx at eye level, 4000K) during one hour of morning versus afternoon exposure. In four repeated blocks, subjective reports, objective performance and physiological arousal were measured. Results showed effects of illuminance on subjective alertness and vitality, sustained attention in tasks, and heart rate and heart rate variability. Participants felt less sleepy and more energetic in the high versus the low lighting condition, had shorter reaction times on the psychomotor vigilance task and increased physiological arousal. Effects of illuminance on the subjective measures, as well as those on heart rate were not dependent on time of day or duration of exposure. Performance effects were most pronounced in the morning sessions and towards the end of the one-hour exposure period. The effect on heart rate variability was also most pronounced at the end of the one-hour exposure. The results demonstrate that even under normal, i.e., neither sleep nor light deprived conditions, more intense light can improve feelings of alertness and vitality, as well as objective performance and physiological arousal.

  16. A higher illuminance induces alertness even during office hours: findings on subjective measures, task performance and heart rate measures.

    PubMed

    Smolders, K C H J; de Kort, Y A W; Cluitmans, P J M

    2012-08-20

    Nocturnal white light exposure has shown marked results on subjective and objective indicators of alertness, vitality and mood, yet effects of white light during daytime and under usual office work conditions have not been investigated extensively. The current study employed a mixed-group design (N=32), testing effects of two illuminance levels (200lx or 1000lx at eye level, 4000K) during one hour of morning versus afternoon exposure. In four repeated blocks, subjective reports, objective performance and physiological arousal were measured. Results showed effects of illuminance on subjective alertness and vitality, sustained attention in tasks, and heart rate and heart rate variability. Participants felt less sleepy and more energetic in the high versus the low lighting condition, had shorter reaction times on the psychomotor vigilance task and increased physiological arousal. Effects of illuminance on the subjective measures, as well as those on heart rate were not dependent on time of day or duration of exposure. Performance effects were most pronounced in the morning sessions and towards the end of the one-hour exposure period. The effect on heart rate variability was also most pronounced at the end of the one-hour exposure. The results demonstrate that even under normal, i.e., neither sleep nor light deprived conditions, more intense light can improve feelings of alertness and vitality, as well as objective performance and physiological arousal. PMID:22564492

  17. Use of geostatistics to predict virus decay rates for determination of septic tank setback distances.

    PubMed

    Yates, M V; Yates, S R; Warrick, A W; Gerba, C P

    1986-09-01

    Water samples were collected from 71 public drinking-water supply wells in the Tucson, Ariz., basin. Virus decay rates in the water samples were determined with MS-2 coliphage as a model virus. The correlations between the virus decay rates and the sample locations were shown by fitting a spherical model to the experimental semivariogram. Kriging, a geostatistical technique, was used to calculate virus decay rates at unsampled locations by using the known values at nearby wells. Based on the regional characteristics of groundwater flow and the kriged estimates of virus decay rates, a contour map of the area was constructed. The map shows the variation in separation distances that would have to be maintained between wells and sources of contamination to afford similar degrees of protection from viral contamination of the drinking water in wells throughout the basin.

  18. The Influence of Accretion Rate and Metallicity on Thermonuclear Bursts: Predictions from KEPLER Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lampe, Nathanael; Heger, Alexander; Galloway, Duncan K.

    2016-03-01

    Using the KEPLER hydrodynamics code, 464 models of thermonuclear X-ray bursters were performed across a range of accretion rates and compositions. We present the library of simulated burst profiles from this sample, and examine variations in the simulated light curve for different model conditions. We find that the recurrence time varies as a power law against accretion rate, and measure its slope while mixed H/He burning is occurring for a range of metallicities, finding the power law gradient to vary from η =1.1 to 1.24. We identify the accretion rates at which mixed H/He burning stops and a transition occurs to different burning regimes. We explore how varying the accretion rate and metallicity affects burst morphology in both the rise and tail.

  19. A semi-empirical method of predicting on-orbit single event effect rates due to heavy ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gates, Michele Marie

    This work introduces a method of single event upset (SEU) rate prediction which is shown to be more accurate than previous methods when applied to current device technologies, does not require input data of device internals, utilizes a more straightforward solution procedure than previous methods, and facilitates the simultaneous assessment of many devices for the same mission. The method proposed in this work provides values which describe the average daily SEU rate, which are shown to compare more closely to observed on-orbit rates containing over 176 days of flight data than previous prediction methods. Results presented for a 1 Mbit SRAM are compared with flight observations from the Cosmic Ray Upset Experiment and found to fall within 12-15% of the flight data. Results are also presented for the application of generic test data for one 256 kbit and two 1 Mbit SRAM technologies, and the proposed method is shown to agree within 12-28%, depending on the device- type, with on-orbit flight data. The results of several other prediction methods are shown to yield differences of up to an order of magnitude with the same flight data. These findings are consistent with calculations performed in this work which show that the assumptions used in other methods overestimate SEU rates for current and future technologies. In this work it is also shown that the SEU rate is dominated by the impact of particles in the LET regime in which the product of the device cross section and environment differential flux is largest. Thus, relative variations in the flux only in this LET regime are shown to produce equal relative variations in the total SEU rate. Fluctuations in SEU rate due to the probabilistic particle arrival process are explored using a Monte Carlo program. The relative fluctuation in daily SEU rate due to this stochastic behavior is equal to that in the integral flux and is shown to contribute a standard deviation of less than 10% to the daily SEU rate of a 16 Mbit

  20. Toward a New Predictive Model of Student Retention in Higher Education: An Application of Classical Sociological Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerby, Molly B.

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models designed to predict whether students will persist or not have been valuable tools for retention efforts relative to the creation of services in academic and student affairs. Some of the early models attempted to explain and measure factors in the "college dropout process." For example, in his seminal work, Tinto…

  1. Individual differences in visual information processing rate and the prediction of performance differences in team sports: a preliminary investigation.

    PubMed

    Adam, J J; Wilberg, R B

    1992-06-01

    This study used a backward-masking paradigm to examine individual differences in rate of visual information processing among university basketball, ice hockey and Canadian football players. Displays containing four letters were presented for stimulus durations ranging from 25 to 300 ms. Following stimulus offset, a masking stimulus was presented for 200 ms. The subjects were instructed to write down as many letters as possible from the briefly presented stimulus display on a specially prepared response grid. The results indicated consistent individual differences in rate of visual information processing. More importantly, it was found that rate of visual information processing as indexed by the backward-masking technique, has promising validity for predicting general performance excellence in university ice hockey and basketball players. Individual differences in rate of visual information processing were interpreted as reflecting the operation of attentional factors.

  2. Prediction of Fe{sup 2+} concentrations using laboratory rate law in wetlands constructed for acid mine drainage treatment

    SciTech Connect

    Kirby, C.S.; Thomas, H.M.; Southam, G.; Donald, R.

    1998-12-31

    Laboratory rate laws for abiotic and biological Fe{sup 2+} oxidation were combined into a model to predict Fe{sup 2+} concentrations in ponds constructed for mine drainage treatment. Field measurements were made in twenty-two ponds seven passive treatment facilities with 2.8 < pH < 6.8 and 7.5 mg/L < influence Fe{sup 2+} < 240 mg/L. Model inputs include initial Fe{sup 2+} concentration, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and estimated T. ferrooxidans concentrations, temperature (T), pond value, and flow rate. Predicted Fe{sup 2+} concentrations are within approximately 10% of measured Fe{sup 2+} except where seeps enter the treatment systems. Using only an abiotic rate law, the model accounts for Fe{sup 2+} concentrations in facilities which have pH > 5.5. Combining abiotic and biological (T. ferrooxidans) rate laws allows prediction of Fe{sup 2+} concentrations in ponds with 3 < pH < 3.5. Where 5.5 < pH < 6.5, increasing Fe{sup 2+} oxidation rates (decreasing Fe{sup 2+} concentrations in ponds) occur due to increasing parameters in the following order of effectiveness: pH {approx} T > pond volume {approx} initial Fe{sup 2+} concentration > DO. These results suggest that treatment facilities may be undersized unless pH and Fe{sup 2+} oxidation are considered. Measured T. ferrooxidans concentrations are four to six orders of magnitude lower than concentrations required in the model to reproduce measure Fe{sup 2+} concentrations, which suggests that either the measured bacteria concentrations from this study are too low, the biological rate law attributes too little catalytic effect to each bacterial cell, or both. Results also suggest that T. ferrooxidans survive circumneutral pH values or at least repopulate ponds where pH drops due to insufficient alkalinity.

  3. Rate of acquisition, adult age, and basic cognitive abilities predict forgetting: new views on a classic problem.

    PubMed

    Macdonald, Stuart W S; Stigsdotter-Neely, Anna; Derwinger, Anna; Bäckman, Lars

    2006-08-01

    Rate of forgetting is putatively invariant across individuals, sharing few associations with individual-differences variables known to influence encoding and retrieval. This classic topic in learning and memory was revisited using a novel statistical application, multilevel modeling, to examine whether (a) slopes of forgetting varied across individuals and (b) observed individual differences in forgetting shared systematic relations with adult age, learning speed, and cognitive ability. Participants (N = 136) received mnemonic training prior to memorizing 4-digit numbers to perfection, and retention was tested immediately after training and after 30 min, 24 hr, 7 weeks, and 8 months. Slower rate of learning to criterion, older age, and poorer cognitive performance predicted accelerated forgetting with associations most pronounced within 24 hr from baseline. Observed correlates of differential forgetting slopes are similar to those previously found to affect encoding, suggesting continuity rather than asymmetry of prediction for these memory processes.

  4. Prediction of H 2 leak rate in mica-based seals of planar solid oxide fuel cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sang, Shaobai; Pu, Jian; Jiang, Sanping; Jian, Li

    Mica-based materials, either laminated papers or layered single crystals, are popular in solid oxide fuel cell applications as sealing components. Their interface and bulk leak paths can be considered as slits with various heights, lengths and widths. A hydromechanics model was established based on the geometric assumptions to predict the influence of slit geometry and pressure difference of the seal on H 2 leak rate. The dependence of leak rate on slit geometry and the pressure difference as well as the effectiveness of compressive loading and compliant interface layer were discussed accordingly. The model's applicability is supported by reported experiments.

  5. Steep Gravel Bedload Rating Curves Obtained From Bedload Traps Shift Effective Discharge to Flows Much Higher Than "Bankfull"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunte, K.; Swingle, K. W.; Abt, S. R.; Cenderelli, D.

    2012-12-01

    Effective discharge (Qeff) is defined as the flow at which the product of flow frequency and bedload transport rates obtains its maximum. Qeff is often reported to correspond with bankfull flow (Qbf), where Qeff approximates the 1.5 year recurrence interval flow (Q1.5). Because it transports the majority of all bedload, Qeff is considered a design flow for stream restoration and flow management. This study investigates the relationship between Qeff and Q1.5 for gravel bedload in high elevation Rocky Mountain streams. Both the flow frequency distribution (FQ = a × Qbin-b) where Qbin is the flow class, and the bedload transport rating curve (QB = c × Qd) can be described by power functions. The product FQ × QB = (a × c × Q(-b + d)) is positive if d + -b >0, and negative if d + -b <0. FQ × QB can only attain a maximum (=Qeff) if either FQ or QB exhibit an inflection point. In snowmelt regimes, low flows prevail for much of the year, while high flows are limited to a few days, and extreme floods are rare. In log-log plotting scale, this distribution causes the longterm flow frequency function FQ to steepen in the vicinity of Q1.5. If the bedload rating curve exponent is small, e.g., = 3 as is typical of Helley-Smith bedload samples, d + -b shifts from >0 to <0, causing FQ × QB to peak, and Qeff to be around Q1.5. For measurements thought to be more representative of actual gravel transport obtained using bedload traps and similar devices, large rating curve exponents d of 6 - 16 are typical. In this case, d + -b remains >0, and FQ × QB reaches its maximum near the largest flow on record (Qeff,BT = Qmax). Expression of FQ by negative exponential functions FQ = k × e(Qbin×-m) smooths the product function FQ × QB that displays its maximum as a gentle hump rather than a sharp peak, but without drastically altering Qeff. However, a smooth function FQ × QB allows Qeff to react to small changes in rating curve exponents d. As d increases from <1 to >10, Qeff

  6. Effects of new Ab initio rate coefficients on predictions of species formed during n-butanol ignition and pyrolysis.

    PubMed

    Karwat, Darshan M A; Wooldridge, Margaret S; Klippenstein, Stephen J; Davis, Michael J

    2015-01-29

    Experimental, time-resolved species profiles provide critical tests in developing accurate combustion models for biofuels such as n-butanol. A number of such species profiles measured by Karwat et al. [ Karwat, D. M. A.; et al. J. Phys. Chem. A 2011 , 115 , 4909 ] were discordant with predictions from a well-tested chemical kinetic mechanism developed by Black et al. [ Black, G.; et al. Combust. Flame 2010 , 157 , 363 ]. Since then, significant theoretical and experimental efforts have focused on determining the rate coefficients of primary n-butanol consumption pathways in combustion environments, including H atom abstraction reactions from n-butanol by key radicals such as HO2 and OH, as well as the decomposition of the radicals formed by these H atom abstractions. These reactions not only determine the overall reactivity of n-butanol, but also significantly affect the concentrations of intermediate species formed during n-butanol ignition. In this paper we explore the effect of incorporating new ab initio predictions into the Black et al. mechanism on predictions of ignition delay time and species time histories for the experimental conditions studied by Karwat et al. The revised predictions for the intermediate species time histories are in much improved agreement with the measurements, but some discrepancies persist. A rate of production analysis comparing the effects of various modifications to the Black et al. mechanism shows significant changes in the predicted consumption pathways of n-butanol, and of the hydroxybutyl and butoxy radicals formed by H atom abstraction from n-butanol. The predictions from the newly revised mechanism are in very good agreement with the low-pressure n-butanol pyrolysis product species measurements of Stranic et al. [ Stranic, I.; et al. Combust. Flame 2012 , 159 , 3242 ] for all but one species. Importantly, the changes to the Black et al. mechanism show that concentrations of small products from n-butanol pyrolysis are

  7. The use of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression to predict rate of medical waste generation

    SciTech Connect

    Jahandideh, Sepideh Jahandideh, Samad; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari; Askarian, Mehrdad; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi; Hosseini, Somayyeh; Jahandideh, Mina

    2009-11-15

    Prediction of the amount of hospital waste production will be helpful in the storage, transportation and disposal of hospital waste management. Based on this fact, two predictor models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) were applied to predict the rate of medical waste generation totally and in different types of sharp, infectious and general. In this study, a 5-fold cross-validation procedure on a database containing total of 50 hospitals of Fars province (Iran) were used to verify the performance of the models. Three performance measures including MAR, RMSE and R{sup 2} were used to evaluate performance of models. The MLR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance measure values. However, MLR distinguished hospital capacity and bed occupancy as more significant parameters. On the other hand, ANNs as a more powerful model, which has not been introduced in predicting rate of medical waste generation, showed high performance measure values, especially 0.99 value of R{sup 2} confirming the good fit of the data. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the non-linear nature of ANNs in problem solving which provides the opportunity for relating independent variables to dependent ones non-linearly. In conclusion, the obtained results showed that our ANN-based model approach is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better cost-effective strategy for waste management in future.

  8. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature.

    PubMed

    Fohlmeister, Jürgen F

    2015-06-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m(3) → m(4)). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation. PMID:25867741

  9. Do More Hospital Beds Lead to Higher Hospitalization Rates? A Spatial Examination of Roemer’s Law

    PubMed Central

    Delamater, Paul L.; Messina, Joseph P.; Grady, Sue C.; WinklerPrins, Vince; Shortridge, Ashton M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Roemer’s Law, a widely cited principle in health care policy, states that hospital beds that are built tend to be used. This simple but powerful expression has been invoked to justify Certificate of Need regulation of hospital beds in an effort to contain health care costs. Despite its influence, a surprisingly small body of empirical evidence supports its content. Furthermore, known geographic factors influencing health services use and the spatial structure of the relationship between hospital bed availability and hospitalization rates have not been sufficiently explored in past examinations of Roemer’s Law. We pose the question, “Accounting for space in health care access and use, is there an observable association between the availability of hospital beds and hospital utilization?” Methods We employ an ecological research design based upon the Anderson behavioral model of health care utilization. This conceptual model is implemented in an explicitly spatial context. The effect of hospital bed availability on the utilization of hospital services is evaluated, accounting for spatial structure and controlling for other known determinants of hospital utilization. The stability of this relationship is explored by testing across numerous geographic scales of analysis. The case study comprises an entire state system of hospitals and population, evaluating over one million inpatient admissions. Results We find compelling evidence that a positive, statistically significant relationship exists between hospital bed availability and inpatient hospitalization rates. Additionally, the observed relationship is invariant with changes in the geographic scale of analysis. Conclusions This study provides evidence for the effects of Roemer’s Law, thus suggesting that variations in hospitalization rates have origins in the availability of hospital beds. This relationship is found to be robust across geographic scales of analysis. These findings suggest

  10. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature.

    PubMed

    Fohlmeister, Jürgen F

    2015-06-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m(3) → m(4)). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation.

  11. LDL and HDL transfer rates across peripheral microvascular endothelium agree with those predicted for passive ultrafiltration in humans

    PubMed Central

    Michel, C. Charles; Nanjee, M. Nazeem; Olszewski, Waldemar L.; Miller, Norman E.

    2015-01-01

    The mechanisms by which LDLs and HDLs cross the vascular endothelium from plasma into interstitial fluid are not understood, and have never been studied in humans in vivo. We determined whether the plasma-to-lymph clearance rates of LDL and HDL conform with those predicted by passive ultrafiltration through intercellular pores, or if it is necessary to invoke an active process such as receptor-mediated transcytosis. Plasma and afferent peripheral lymph were collected under steady-state conditions from 30 healthy men, and assayed for seven globular proteins of molecular radii 2.89–8.95 nm, complement C3, and apo AI, apo AII, and apo B. Plasma-to-lymph clearance rates of the seven proteins fitted the relation expected for molecules of their size when transported through two populations of pores of radius 4.95 and 20.1 nm. The same model parameters were then found to accurately predict the clearance rates of both HDL and LDL. The apparent clearance of complement C3, previously shown to be secreted by cultured endothelium, exceeded that predicted by the model. We conclude that the transport of HDL and LDL from plasma into interstitial fluid across the peripheral vascular endothelium in healthy humans can be explained by ultrafiltration without invoking an additional active process such as transcytosis. PMID:25398615

  12. How personal resources predict work engagement and self-rated performance among construction workers: a social cognitive perspective.

    PubMed

    Lorente, Laura; Salanova, Marisa; Martínez, Isabel M; Vera, María

    2014-06-01

    Traditionally, research focussing on psychosocial factors in the construction industry has focused mainly on the negative aspects of health and on results such as occupational accidents. This study, however, focuses on the specific relationships among the different positive psychosocial factors shared by construction workers that could be responsible for occupational well-being and outcomes such as performance. The main objective of this study was to test whether personal resources predict self-rated job performance through job resources and work engagement. Following the predictions of Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the motivational process of the Job Demands-Resources Model, we expect that the relationship between personal resources and performance will be fully mediated by job resources and work engagement. The sample consists of 228 construction workers. Structural equation modelling supports the research model. Personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy, mental and emotional competences) play a predicting role in the perception of job resources (i.e. job control and supervisor social support), which in turn leads to work engagement and self-rated performance. This study emphasises the crucial role that personal resources play in determining how people perceive job resources by determining the levels of work engagement and, hence, their self-rated job performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. PMID:24821509

  13. How personal resources predict work engagement and self-rated performance among construction workers: a social cognitive perspective.

    PubMed

    Lorente, Laura; Salanova, Marisa; Martínez, Isabel M; Vera, María

    2014-06-01

    Traditionally, research focussing on psychosocial factors in the construction industry has focused mainly on the negative aspects of health and on results such as occupational accidents. This study, however, focuses on the specific relationships among the different positive psychosocial factors shared by construction workers that could be responsible for occupational well-being and outcomes such as performance. The main objective of this study was to test whether personal resources predict self-rated job performance through job resources and work engagement. Following the predictions of Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the motivational process of the Job Demands-Resources Model, we expect that the relationship between personal resources and performance will be fully mediated by job resources and work engagement. The sample consists of 228 construction workers. Structural equation modelling supports the research model. Personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy, mental and emotional competences) play a predicting role in the perception of job resources (i.e. job control and supervisor social support), which in turn leads to work engagement and self-rated performance. This study emphasises the crucial role that personal resources play in determining how people perceive job resources by determining the levels of work engagement and, hence, their self-rated job performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  14. Predicting the Migration Rate of Dialkyl Organotins from PVC Pipe into Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Organotins (OTs) are additives widely used as thermal and light stabilizers in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics. OTs can leach into water flowing through PVC pipes. This work examines the leaching rates of two neurotoxic OTs, dimethyl tin (DMT) and dibutyl tin (DBT), from PVC pi...

  15. Do the Naive Know Best? The Predictive Power of Naive Ratings of Couple Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baucom, Katherine J. W.; Baucom, Brian R.; Christensen, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    We examined the utility of naive ratings of communication patterns and relationship quality in a large sample of distressed couples. Untrained raters assessed 10-min videotaped interactions from 134 distressed couples who participated in both problem-solving and social support discussions at each of 3 time points (pre-therapy, post-therapy, and…

  16. USING δ13C TO PREDICT THE RATE OF BIODEGRADATION OF MTBE

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is difficult to estimate the rate of natural biodegradation of MTBE at field scale. Dispersion in the aquifer or dilution in the well can give a false impression of attenuation along a flow path. The first product of MTBE biodegradation is TBA. Many gasoline spills contain TB...

  17. Multisensor multipulse Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) analysis in noise for medium rate speech transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preuss, R. D.

    1985-12-01

    The theory of multipulse linear predictive coding (LPC) analysis is extended to include the possible presence of acoustic noise, as for a telephone near a busy road. Models are developed assuming two signals are provided: the primary signal is the output of a microphone which samples the combined acoustic fields of the noise and the speech, while the secondary signal is the output of a microphone which samples the acoustic field of the noise alone. Analysis techniques to extract the multipulse LPC parameters from these two signals are developed; these techniques are developed as approximations to maximum likelihood analysis for the given model.

  18. Automated Prediction of Catalytic Mechanism and Rate Law Using Graph-Based Reaction Path Sampling.

    PubMed

    Habershon, Scott

    2016-04-12

    In a recent article [ J. Chem. Phys. 2015 , 143 , 094106 ], we introduced a novel graph-based sampling scheme which can be used to generate chemical reaction paths in many-atom systems in an efficient and highly automated manner. The main goal of this work is to demonstrate how this approach, when combined with direct kinetic modeling, can be used to determine the mechanism and phenomenological rate law of a complex catalytic cycle, namely cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation of ethene. Our graph-based sampling scheme generates 31 unique chemical products and 32 unique chemical reaction pathways; these sampled structures and reaction paths enable automated construction of a kinetic network model of the catalytic system when combined with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of free energies and resultant transition-state theory rate constants. Direct simulations of this kinetic network across a range of initial reactant concentrations enables determination of both the reaction mechanism and the associated rate law in an automated fashion, without the need for either presupposing a mechanism or making steady-state approximations in kinetic analysis. Most importantly, we find that the reaction mechanism which emerges from these simulations is exactly that originally proposed by Heck and Breslow; furthermore, the simulated rate law is also consistent with previous experimental and computational studies, exhibiting a complex dependence on carbon monoxide pressure. While the inherent errors of using DFT simulations to model chemical reactivity limit the quantitative accuracy of our calculated rates, this work confirms that our automated simulation strategy enables direct analysis of catalytic mechanisms from first principles. PMID:26938837

  19. Automated Prediction of Catalytic Mechanism and Rate Law Using Graph-Based Reaction Path Sampling.

    PubMed

    Habershon, Scott

    2016-04-12

    In a recent article [ J. Chem. Phys. 2015 , 143 , 094106 ], we introduced a novel graph-based sampling scheme which can be used to generate chemical reaction paths in many-atom systems in an efficient and highly automated manner. The main goal of this work is to demonstrate how this approach, when combined with direct kinetic modeling, can be used to determine the mechanism and phenomenological rate law of a complex catalytic cycle, namely cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation of ethene. Our graph-based sampling scheme generates 31 unique chemical products and 32 unique chemical reaction pathways; these sampled structures and reaction paths enable automated construction of a kinetic network model of the catalytic system when combined with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of free energies and resultant transition-state theory rate constants. Direct simulations of this kinetic network across a range of initial reactant concentrations enables determination of both the reaction mechanism and the associated rate law in an automated fashion, without the need for either presupposing a mechanism or making steady-state approximations in kinetic analysis. Most importantly, we find that the reaction mechanism which emerges from these simulations is exactly that originally proposed by Heck and Breslow; furthermore, the simulated rate law is also consistent with previous experimental and computational studies, exhibiting a complex dependence on carbon monoxide pressure. While the inherent errors of using DFT simulations to model chemical reactivity limit the quantitative accuracy of our calculated rates, this work confirms that our automated simulation strategy enables direct analysis of catalytic mechanisms from first principles.

  20. Mycelial growth rate and macro- and micromorphological characteristics of medicinal species of genus Ganoderma (higher Basidiomycetes) from Iran.

    PubMed

    Keypour, Somayeh; Riahi, Hossein; Safaie, Naser; Borhani, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Mycelial growth rate is a distinguishing quality that demonstrates continuous variation in different isolates collected from various hosts and locations. The objectives of this research were (1) to reinvestigate the previous identification of Iranian species, and (2) to recognize the best native isolate(s) for cultivation of different Ganoderma species. Of 78 samples collected from different hosts and sites, only 43 mycelia could be purified and examined for further study. Growth rate (GR; Δd/Δt) and growth coefficient (GC; dgh/t) were analyzed by growing isolate culture on 2% malt-extract agar medium (pH 5.5) incubated at 25°C. Macro- and micromorphological studies on mycelia and fruiting bodies such as basidiospore and cutis microcharacters as well as fruiting body quality were used for precise identification. Results revealed that samples belonged to 4 species: G. lucidum, G. applanatum, G. resinaceum, and G. australe. Among all samples, the isolate morphologically identified as G. applanatum showed the best GR (12 mm/day) and good GC (128 mm/day), followed by the 2 other isolates identified as G. resinaceum (GRs and GCs of 11 and 55 mm/day and 10.9 and 43.6 mm/day, respectively).

  1. The First Attempt at Non-Linear in Silico Prediction of Sampling Rates for Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Samplers (POCIS)

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Modeling and prediction of polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) sampling rates (Rs) for 73 compounds using artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented for the first time. Two models were constructed: the first was developed ab initio using a genetic algorithm (GSD-model) to shortlist 24 descriptors covering constitutional, topological, geometrical and physicochemical properties and the second model was adapted for Rs prediction from a previous chromatographic retention model (RTD-model). Mechanistic evaluation of descriptors showed that models did not require comprehensive a priori information to predict Rs. Average predicted errors for the verification and blind test sets were 0.03 ± 0.02 L d–1 (RTD-model) and 0.03 ± 0.03 L d–1 (GSD-model) relative to experimentally determined Rs. Prediction variability in replicated models was the same or less than for measured Rs. Networks were externally validated using a measured Rs data set of six benzodiazepines. The RTD-model performed best in comparison to the GSD-model for these compounds (average absolute errors of 0.0145 ± 0.008 L d–1 and 0.0437 ± 0.02 L d–1, respectively). Improvements to generalizability of modeling approaches will be reliant on the need for standardized guidelines for Rs measurement. The use of in silico tools for Rs determination represents a more economical approach than laboratory calibrations. PMID:27363449

  2. Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.

    PubMed

    Allison, Thomas C

    2016-03-01

    Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications.

  3. Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.

    PubMed

    Allison, Thomas C

    2016-03-01

    Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications. PMID:26684219

  4. Prediction of terrestrial gamma dose rate based on geological formations and soil types in the Johor State, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; bin Hamzah, Khaidzir; Alajerami, Yasser; Moharib, Mohammed; Saeed, Ismael

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to predict and estimate unmeasured terrestrial gamma dose rate (TGDR) using statistical analysis methods to derive a model from the actual measurement based on geological formation and soil type. The measurements of TGDR were conducted in the state of Johor with a total of 3873 measured points which covered all geological formations, soil types and districts. The measurements were taken 1 m above the soil surface using NaI [Ti] detector. The measured gamma dose rates ranged from 9 nGy h(-1) to 1237 nGy h(-1) with a mean value of 151 nGy h(-1). The data have been normalized to fit a normal distribution. Tests of significance were conducted among all geological formations and soil types, using the unbalanced one way ANOVA. The results indicated strong significant differences due to the different geological formations and soil types present in Johor State. Pearson Correlation was used to measure the relations between gamma dose rate based on geological formation and soil type (D(G,S)) with the gamma dose rate based on geological formation (D(G)) or soil type (D(s)). A very good correlation was found between D(G,S) and D(G) or D(G,S) and D(s). A total of 118 pairs of geological formations and soil types were used to derive the statistical contribution of geological formations and soil types to gamma dose rates. The contribution of the gamma dose rate from geological formation and soil type were found to be 0.594 and 0.399, respectively. The null hypotheses were accepted for 83% of examined data, therefore, the model could be used to predict gamma dose rates based on geological formation and soil type information.

  5. Prediction of terrestrial gamma dose rate based on geological formations and soil types in the Johor State, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; bin Hamzah, Khaidzir; Alajerami, Yasser; Moharib, Mohammed; Saeed, Ismael

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to predict and estimate unmeasured terrestrial gamma dose rate (TGDR) using statistical analysis methods to derive a model from the actual measurement based on geological formation and soil type. The measurements of TGDR were conducted in the state of Johor with a total of 3873 measured points which covered all geological formations, soil types and districts. The measurements were taken 1 m above the soil surface using NaI [Ti] detector. The measured gamma dose rates ranged from 9 nGy h(-1) to 1237 nGy h(-1) with a mean value of 151 nGy h(-1). The data have been normalized to fit a normal distribution. Tests of significance were conducted among all geological formations and soil types, using the unbalanced one way ANOVA. The results indicated strong significant differences due to the different geological formations and soil types present in Johor State. Pearson Correlation was used to measure the relations between gamma dose rate based on geological formation and soil type (D(G,S)) with the gamma dose rate based on geological formation (D(G)) or soil type (D(s)). A very good correlation was found between D(G,S) and D(G) or D(G,S) and D(s). A total of 118 pairs of geological formations and soil types were used to derive the statistical contribution of geological formations and soil types to gamma dose rates. The contribution of the gamma dose rate from geological formation and soil type were found to be 0.594 and 0.399, respectively. The null hypotheses were accepted for 83% of examined data, therefore, the model could be used to predict gamma dose rates based on geological formation and soil type information. PMID:26142818

  6. The Power of Implicit Social Relation in Rating Prediction of Social Recommender Systems

    PubMed Central

    Reafee, Waleed; Salim, Naomie; Khan, Atif

    2016-01-01

    The explosive growth of social networks in recent times has presented a powerful source of information to be utilized as an extra source for assisting in the social recommendation problems. The social recommendation methods that are based on probabilistic matrix factorization improved the recommendation accuracy and partly solved the cold-start and data sparsity problems. However, these methods only exploited the explicit social relations and almost completely ignored the implicit social relations. In this article, we firstly propose an algorithm to extract the implicit relation in the undirected graphs of social networks by exploiting the link prediction techniques. Furthermore, we propose a new probabilistic matrix factorization method to alleviate the data sparsity problem through incorporating explicit friendship and implicit friendship. We evaluate our proposed approach on two real datasets, Last.Fm and Douban. The experimental results show that our method performs much better than the state-of-the-art approaches, which indicates the importance of incorporating implicit social relations in the recommendation process to address the poor prediction accuracy. PMID:27152663

  7. The Power of Implicit Social Relation in Rating Prediction of Social Recommender Systems.

    PubMed

    Reafee, Waleed; Salim, Naomie; Khan, Atif

    2016-01-01

    The explosive growth of social networks in recent times has presented a powerful source of information to be utilized as an extra source for assisting in the social recommendation problems. The social recommendation methods that are based on probabilistic matrix factorization improved the recommendation accuracy and partly solved the cold-start and data sparsity problems. However, these methods only exploited the explicit social relations and almost completely ignored the implicit social relations. In this article, we firstly propose an algorithm to extract the implicit relation in the undirected graphs of social networks by exploiting the link prediction techniques. Furthermore, we propose a new probabilistic matrix factorization method to alleviate the data sparsity problem through incorporating explicit friendship and implicit friendship. We evaluate our proposed approach on two real datasets, Last.Fm and Douban. The experimental results show that our method performs much better than the state-of-the-art approaches, which indicates the importance of incorporating implicit social relations in the recommendation process to address the poor prediction accuracy. PMID:27152663

  8. A comparison of prediction equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate in adults without kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Lin, Julie; Knight, Eric L; Hogan, Mary Lou; Singh, Ajay K

    2003-10-01

    The ability of the Modification of Renal Disease (MDRD) equation to predict GFR when compared with multiple other prediction equations in healthy subjects without known kidney disease was analyzed. Between May 1995 and December 2001, a total of 117 healthy individuals underwent (125)I-iothalamate or (99m)Tc-diethylenetriamine-pentaacetic acid (DTPA) renal studies as part of a routine kidney donor evaluation at either Brigham and Women's Hospital or Boston Children's Hospital. On chart review, 100 individuals had sufficient data for analysis. The MDRD 1, MDRD 2 (simplified MDRD equation), Cockcroft-Gault (CG), Cockcroft-Gault corrected for GFR (CG-GFR), and other equations were tested. The median absolute difference in ml/min per 1.73 m(2) between calculated and measured GFR was 28.7 for MDRD 1, 18.5 for MDRD 2, 33.1 for CG, and 28.6 for CG-GFR in the (125)I-iothalamate group and was 31.1 for MDRD 1, 38.2 for MDRD 2, 22.0 for CG, and 31.1 for CG-GFR in the (99m)Tc-DTPA group. Bias was -0.5, -3.3, 25.6, and 5.0 for MDRD 1, MDRD 2, CG, and CG-GFR, respectively, in subjects who received (125)I-iothalamate and -33.2, -36.5, 6.0, and -15.0 for MDRD 1, MDRD 2, CG, and CG-GFR, respectively, in those who received (99m)Tc-DTPA studies. Precision testing, as measured by linear regression, yielded R(2) values of 0.04 for CG, 0.05 for CG-GFR, 0.15 for MDRD 1, and 0.14 for MDRD in those who underwent (125)I-iothalamate studies and 0.18 for CG, 0.21 for CG-GFR, 0.40 for MDRD 1, and 0.38 for MDRD 2 for those who underwent (99m)Tc-DTPA studies. The MDRD equations were more accurate within 30 and 50% of the measured GFR compared with the CG and CG-GFR equations. When compared with the CG equation, the MDRD equations are more precise and more accurate for predicting GFR in healthy adults. The MDRD equations, however, consistently underestimate GFR, whereas the CG equations consistently overestimate measured GFR in people with normal renal function. In potential kidney donors

  9. Diminished respirative growth and enhanced assimilative sugar uptake result in higher specific fermentation rates by the mutant Pichia stipitis FPL-061

    SciTech Connect

    Sreenath, H.K.; Jeffries, T.W. |

    1997-12-31

    A mutant strain of Pichia stipitis, FPL-061, was obtained by selecting for growth on L-xylose in the presence of respiratory inhibitors. The specific fermentation rate of FPL-061, was higher than that of the parent, Pichia stipitis CBS 6054, because of its lower cell yield and growth rate and higher specific substrate uptake rate. With a mixture of glucose and xylose, the mutant strain FPL-061 produced 29.4 g ethanol/L