Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

PubMed

Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

2008-12-01

We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

PubMed Central

Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

2016-01-01

E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

PubMed

Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

2016-01-01

E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

Areas with High Rates of Police-Reported Violent Crime Have Higher Rates of Childhood Asthma Morbidity.

PubMed

Beck, Andrew F; Huang, Bin; Ryan, Patrick H; Sandel, Megan T; Chen, Chen; Kahn, Robert S

2016-06-01

To assess whether population-level violent (and all) crime rates were associated with population-level child asthma utilization rates and predictive of patient-level risk of asthma reutilization after a hospitalization. A retrospective cohort study of 4638 pediatric asthma-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations between 2011 and 2013 was completed. For population-level analyses, census tract asthma utilization rates were calculated by dividing the number of utilization events within a tract by the child population. For patient-level analyses, hospitalized patients (n = 981) were followed until time of first asthma-related reutilization. The primary predictor was the census tract rate of violent crime as recorded by the police; the all crime (violent plus nonviolent) rate was also assessed. Census tract-level violent and all crime rates were significantly correlated with asthma utilization rates (both P < .0001). The violent crime rate explained 35% of the population-level asthma utilization variance and remained associated with increased utilization after adjustment for census tract poverty, unemployment, substandard housing, and traffic exposure (P = .002). The all crime rate explained 28% of the variance and was similarly associated with increased utilization after adjustment (P = .02). Hospitalized children trended toward being more likely to reutilize if they lived in higher violent (P = .1) and all crime areas (P = .01). After adjustment, neither relationship was significant. Crime data could help facilitate early identification of potentially toxic stressors relevant to the control of asthma for populations and patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Areas with high rates of police-reported violent crime have higher rates of childhood asthma morbidity

PubMed Central

Beck, Andrew F.; Huang, Bin; Ryan, Patrick H.; Sandel, Megan T.; Chen, Chen; Kahn, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Objectives To assess whether population-level violent (and all) crime rates were associated with population-level child asthma utilization rates and predictive of patient-level risk of asthma reutilization after a hospitalization. Study design A retrospective cohort study of 4,638 pediatric asthma-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations between 2011 and 2013 was completed. For population-level analyses, census tract asthma utilization rates were calculated by dividing the number of utilization events within a tract by the child population. For patient-level analyses, hospitalized patients (n=981) were followed until time of first asthma-related reutilization. The primary predictor was the census tract rate of violent crime as recorded by the police; the all crime (violent plus non-violent) rate was also assessed. Results Census tract-level violent and all crime rates were significantly correlated with asthma utilization rates (both p<.0001). The violent crime rate explained 35% of the population-level asthma utilization variance and remained associated with increased utilization after adjustment for census tract poverty, unemployment, substandard housing, and traffic exposure (p=.002). The all crime rate explained 28% of the variance and was similarly associated with increased utilization after adjustment (p=.02). Hospitalized children trended toward being more likely to reutilize if they lived in higher violent (p=.1) and all crime areas (p=.01). After adjustment, neither relationship was significant. Conclusions Crime data could help facilitate early identification of potentially toxic stressors relevant to the control of asthma for populations and patients. PMID:26960918

Research on Fault Rate Prediction Method of T/R Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xiaodong; Yang, Jiangping; Bi, Zengjun; Zhang, Yu

2017-07-01

T/R component is an important part of the large phased array radar antenna array, because of its large numbers, high fault rate, it has important significance for fault prediction. Aiming at the problems of traditional grey model GM(1,1) in practical operation, the discrete grey model is established based on the original model in this paper, and the optimization factor is introduced to optimize the background value, and the linear form of the prediction model is added, the improved discrete grey model of linear regression is proposed, finally, an example is simulated and compared with other models. The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and the solution is simple and the application scope is more extensive.

Predictions of cell damage rates for Lifesat missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Golightly, Michael J.; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy; Nealy, John E.; Katz, Robert

1990-01-01

The track model of Katz is used to make predictions of cell damage rates for possible Lifesat experiments. Contributions from trapped protons and electrons and galactic cosmic rays are considered for several orbits. Damage rates for survival and transformation of C3HT10-1/2 cells are predicted for various spacecraft shields.

Prediction of failure pressure and leak rate of stress corrosion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J. Y.

2002-06-24

An ''equivalent rectangular crack'' approach was employed to predict rupture pressures and leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks and steam generator tubes removed from the McGuire Nuclear Station. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to a pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate are compared. In general, the test failure pressures and leak rates are closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on nondestructive evaluation (NDE). However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determinemore » a more detailed geometry of ligamented cracks, from which failure pressure and leak rate can be more accurately predicted. One test specimen displayed a time-dependent increase of leak rate under constant pressure.« less

Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

DOE PAGES

Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; ...

2013-03-07

In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

ATLAS trigger operations: Upgrades to ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Ava; Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min; Atlas Collaboration

2017-01-01

We present ``Xmon,'' a tool to monitor trigger rates in the Control Room of the ATLAS Experiment. We discuss Xmon's recent (1) updates, (2) upgrades, and (3) operations. (1) Xmon was updated to modify the tool written for the three-level trigger architecture in Run-1 (2009-2012) to adapt to the new two-level system for Run-2 (2015-current). The tool takes as input the beam luminosity to make a rate prediction, which is compared with incoming rates to detect anomalies that occur both globally throughout a run and locally within a run. Global offsets are more commonly caught by the predictions based upon past runs, where offline processing allows for function adjustments and fit quality through outlier rejection. (2) Xmon was upgraded to detect local offsets using on-the-fly predictions, which uses a sliding window of in-run rates to make predictions. (3) Xmon operations examples are given. Future work involves further automation of the steps to provide the predictive functions and for alerting shifters.

Semantic organizational strategy predicts verbal memory and remission rate of geriatric depression.

PubMed

Morimoto, Sarah Shizuko; Gunning, Faith M; Kanellopoulos, Dora; Murphy, Christopher F; Klimstra, Sibel A; Kelly, Robert E; Alexopoulos, George S

2012-05-01

This study tests the hypothesis that the use of semantic organizational strategy during the free-recall phase of a verbal memory task predicts remission of geriatric depression. Sixty-five older patients with major depression participated in a 12-week escitalopram treatment trial. Neuropsychological performance was assessed at baseline after a 2-week drug washout period. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised was used to assess verbal learning and memory. Remission was defined as a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score of ≤ 7 for 2 consecutive weeks and no longer meeting the DSM-IV-TR criteria for major depression. The association between the number of clusters used at the final learning trial (trial 3) and remission was examined using Cox's proportional hazards survival analysis. The relationship between the number of clusters utilized in the final learning trial and the number of words recalled after a 25-min delay was examined in a regression with age and education as covariates. Higher number of clusters utilized predicted remission rates (hazard ratio, 1.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.54); χ(2)  = 4.23, df = 3, p = 0.04). There was a positive relationship between the total number of clusters used by the end of the third learning trial and the total number of words recalled at the delayed recall trial (F(3,58) = 7.93; p < 0.001). Effective semantic strategy use at baseline on a verbal list learning task by older depressed patients was associated with higher rates of remission with antidepressant treatment. This result provides support for previous findings indicating that measures of executive functioning at baseline are useful in predicting antidepressant response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

2015-01-01

Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

2007-01-01

Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

PubMed

Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

2017-02-01

To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

Predicting terrestrial gamma dose rate based on geological and soil information: case study of Perak state, Malaysia.

PubMed

Ramli, A T; Apriantoro, N H; Heryansyah, A; Basri, N A; Sanusi, M S M; Abu Hanifah, N Z H

2016-03-01

An extensive terrestrial gamma radiation dose (TGRD) rate survey has been conducted in Perak State, Peninsular Malaysia. The survey has been carried out taking into account geological and soil information, involving 2930 in situ surveys. Based on geological and soil information collected during TGRD rate measurements, TGRD rates have been predicted in Perak State using a statistical regression analysis which would be helpful to focus surveys in areas that are difficult to access. An equation was formulated according to a linear relationship between TGRD rates, geological contexts and soil types. The comparison of in situ measurements and predicted TGRD dose rates was tabulated and showed good agreement with the linear regression equation. The TGRD rates in the study area ranged from 38 nGy h(-1) to 1039 nGy h(-1) with a mean value of 224  ±  138 nGy h(-1). This value is higher than the world average as reported in UNSCEAR 2000. The TGRD rates contribute an average dose rate of 1.37 mSv per year. An isodose map for the study area was developed using a Kriging method based on predicted and in situ TGRD rate values.

Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

PubMed Central

Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

2015-01-01

Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by

Heart rate turbulence predicts ICD-resistant mortality in ischaemic heart disease.

PubMed

Marynissen, Thomas; Floré, Vincent; Heidbuchel, Hein; Nuyens, Dieter; Ector, Joris; Willems, Rik

2014-07-01

In high-risk patients, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) can convert the mode of death from arrhythmic to pump failure death. Therefore, we introduced the concept of 'ICD-resistant mortality' (IRM), defined as death (a) without previous appropriate ICD intervention (AI), (b) within 1 month after the first AI, or (c) within 1 year after the initial ICD implantation. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in patients with a high risk of IRM should be avoided. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients with ischaemic heart disease were included if a digitized 24 h Holter was available pre-implantation. Demographic, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and 24 h Holter risk factors were collected at device implantation. The primary endpoint was IRM. Cox regression analyses were used to test the association between predictors and outcome. We included 130 patients, with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 33.6 ± 10.3%. During a follow-up of 52 ± 31 months, 33 patients died. There were 21 cases of IRM. Heart rate turbulence (HRT) was the only Holter parameter associated with IRM and total mortality. A higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and a lower body mass index were the strongest predictors of IRM. Left ventricular ejection fraction predicted IRM on univariate analysis, and was the strongest predictor of total mortality. The only parameter that predicted AI was non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation based on NYHA class and LVEF leads to selection of patients with a higher risk of IRM and death. Heart rate turbulence may have added value for the identification of poor candidates for ICD therapy. Available Holter parameters seem limited in their ability to predict AI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Social motivation in prospective memory: higher importance ratings and reported performance rates for social tasks.

PubMed

Penningroth, Suzanna L; Scott, Walter D; Freuen, Margaret

2011-03-01

Few studies have addressed social motivation in prospective memory (PM). In a pilot study and two main studies, we examined whether social PM tasks possess a motivational advantage over nonsocial PM tasks. In the pilot study and Study 1, participants listed their real-life important and less important PM tasks. Independent raters categorized the PM tasks as social or nonsocial. Results from both studies showed a higher proportion of tasks rated as social when important tasks were requested than when less important tasks were requested. In Study 1, participants also reported whether they had remembered to perform each PM task. Reported performance rates were higher for tasks rated as social than for those rated as nonsocial. Finally, in Study 2, participants rated the importance of two hypothetical PM tasks, one social and one nonsocial. The social PM task was rated higher in importance. Overall, these findings suggest that social PM tasks are viewed as more important than nonsocial PM tasks and they are more likely to be performed. We propose that consideration of the social relevance of PM will lead to a more complete and ecologically valid theoretical description of PM performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).

Quantum mechanical prediction of four-phonon scattering rates and reduced thermal conductivity of solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Tianli; Ruan, Xiulin

2016-01-01

Recently, first principle-based predictions of lattice thermal conductivity κ from perturbation theory have achieved significant success. However, it only includes three-phonon scattering due to the assumption that four-phonon and higher-order processes are generally unimportant. Also, directly evaluating the scattering rates of four-phonon and higher-order processes has been a long-standing challenge. In this work, however, we have developed a formalism to explicitly determine quantum mechanical scattering probability matrices for four-phonon scattering in the full Brillouin zone, and by mitigating the computational challenge we have directly calculated four-phonon scattering rates. We find that four-phonon scattering rates are comparable to three-phonon scattering rates at medium and high temperatures, and they increase quadratically with temperature. As a consequence, κ of Lennard-Jones argon is reduced by more than 60% at 80 K when four-phonon scattering is included. Also, in less anharmonic materials—diamond, silicon, and germanium—κ is still reduced considerably at high temperature by four-phonon scattering by using the classical Tersoff potentials. Also, the thermal conductivity of optical phonons is dominated by the fourth- and higher-orders phonon scattering even at low temperature.

Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

1998-01-01

This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2012-04-01

In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

Rich or poor: Who should pay higher tax rates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murilo Castro de Oliveira, Paulo

2017-08-01

A dynamic agent model is introduced with an annual random wealth multiplicative process followed by taxes paid according to a linear wealth-dependent tax rate. If poor agents pay higher tax rates than rich agents, eventually all wealth becomes concentrated in the hands of a single agent. By contrast, if poor agents are subject to lower tax rates, the economic collective process continues forever.

PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

EPA Science Inventory

Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

2015-10-01

Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

1997-01-01

Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

The Promise and Peril of Predictive Analytics in Higher Education: A Landscape Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ekowo, Manuela; Palmer, Iris

2016-01-01

Predictive analytics in higher education is a hot-button topic among educators and administrators as institutions strive to better serve students by becoming more data-informed. In this paper, the authors describe how predictive analytics are used in higher education to identify students who need extra support, steer students in courses they will…

Predictive Rate-Distortion for Infinite-Order Markov Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

2016-06-01

Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on finite sequences cannot capture all of their past dependencies. Spectral arguments confirm a popular intuition: algorithms that cluster finite-length sequences fail dramatically when the underlying process has long-range temporal correlations and can fail even for processes generated by finite-memory hidden Markov models. We circumvent the curse of dimensionality in rate-distortion analysis of finite- and infinite-order processes by casting predictive rate-distortion objective functions in terms of the forward- and reverse-time causal states of computational mechanics. Examples demonstrate that the resulting algorithms yield substantial improvements.

Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

2016-12-01

Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

With age a lower individual breathing reserve is associated with a higher maximal heart rate.

PubMed

Burtscher, Martin; Gatterer, Hannes; Faulhaber, Martin; Burtscher, Johannes

2018-01-01

Maximal heart rate (HRmax) is linearly declining with increasing age. Regular exercise training is supposed to partly prevent this decline, whereas sex and habitual physical activity do not. High exercise capacity is associated with a high cardiac output (HR x stroke volume) and high ventilatory requirements. Due to the close cardiorespiratory coupling, we hypothesized that the individual ventilatory response to maximal exercise might be associated with the age-related HRmax. Retrospective analyses have been conducted on the results of 129 consecutively performed routine cardiopulmonary exercise tests. The study sample comprised healthy subjects of both sexes of a broad range of age (20-86 years). Maximal values of power output, minute ventilation, oxygen uptake and heart rate were assessed by the use of incremental cycle spiroergometry. Linear multivariate regression analysis revealed that in addition to age the individual breathing reserve at maximal exercise was independently predictive for HRmax. A lower breathing reserve due to a high ventilatory demand and/or a low ventilatory capacity, which is more pronounced at a higher age, was associated with higher HRmax. Age explained the observed variance in HRmax by 72% and was improved to 83% when the variable "breathing reserve" was entered. The presented findings indicate an independent association between the breathing reserve at maximal exercise and maximal heart rate, i.e. a low individual breathing reserve is associated with a higher age-related HRmax. A deeper understanding of this association has to be investigated in a more physiological scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Enlisted Reenlistment Rates

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

significant effect of unemployment on retention. However, unemployment rate is of only secondary importance when compared to military pay. Budding et al...or " taste ," for military service (CBO, 1981). Second, it ignores the effect of past compensation practices (e.g., higher SRBs) that may lead to...civilian pay, and “ taste ” (e.g., likes and dislikes) for staying in the military. They differ in their income stream (cost of leaving) to remain in the

Higher neonatal growth rate and body condition score at 7 months are predictive factors of obesity in adult female Beagle dogs.

PubMed

Leclerc, Lucie; Thorin, Chantal; Flanagan, John; Biourge, Vincent; Serisier, Samuel; Nguyen, Patrick

2017-04-13

The risks during early growth on becoming overweight in adulthood are widely studied in humans. However, early-life predictive factors for canine adult overweight and obesity have not yet been studied. To identify factors that may help explain the development of overweight and obesity at adulthood in dogs, a longitudinal study of 2 years was conducted in 24 female Beagle dogs of the same age, sexual status, and raised under identical environmental conditions. By means of a hierarchical classification on principal components with the following quantitative values: fat-free mass (FFM), percentage fat mass and pelvic circumference at 2 years of age, three groups of dogs were established and were nominally named: ideal weight (IW, n = 9), slightly overweight (OW1, n = 6) and overweight (OW2, n = 9). With the aim of identifying predictive factors of development of obesity at adulthood parental characteristics, growth pattern, energy balance and plasma factors were analysed by logistic regression analysis. At 24 months, the group compositions were in line with the body condition scores (BCS 1-9) values of the IW (5 or 6/9), the OW1 (6/9) and the OW2 (7 or 8/9) groups. Logistic regression analysis permitted the identification of neonatal growth rate during the first 2 weeks of life (GR 2W ) and BCS at 7 months as predictors for the development of obesity at adulthood. Seventy percent of dogs with either GR 2W >125% or with BCS > 6/9 at 7 months belonged to the OW2 group. Results from energy intake and expenditure, corrected for FFM, showed that there was a greater positive energy imbalance between 7 and 10 months for the OW2, compared to the IW group. This study expands the understanding of previously reported risk factors for being overweight or obese in dogs, establishing that (i) 15 out of 24 of the studied dogs became overweight and (ii) GR 2W and BCS at 7 months of age could be used as predictive factors as overweight adult dogs in the OW2

Do maternal ratings of appetite in infants predict later Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire scores and body mass index?

PubMed

Parkinson, Kathryn N; Drewett, Robert F; Le Couteur, Ann S; Adamson, Ashley J

2010-02-01

In a longitudinal birth cohort maternal ratings of children's appetite made at 6 weeks, 12 months and 5-6 years were correlated with one another and with subscales from the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ) at 5-6 years, and body mass index (BMI) at 6-8 years. Statistically significant correlations were found between the children's appetite ratings. Appetite ratings in infancy were also correlated with the CEBQ subscale scores at 5-6 years to a limited extent, but not with the BMI at 6-8 years. The appetite rating at 5-6 years and three of the CEBQ subscales were independently associated with BMI. Children with higher levels of Emotional Over-Eating and Desire to Drink had higher BMIs, and children with higher levels of Satiety Responsiveness had lower BMIs. These results provide further evidence that there are concurrent associations between appetite ratings in childhood and BMI but suggest that appetite ratings in infancy are related only weakly to later appetite measures and do not predict later BMI. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

No cataclysmic variables missing: higher merger rate brings into agreement observed and predicted space densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belloni, Diogo; Schreiber, Matthias R.; Zorotovic, Mónica; Iłkiewicz, Krystian; Hurley, Jarrod R.; Giersz, Mirek; Lagos, Felipe

2018-06-01

The predicted and observed space density of cataclysmic variables (CVs) have been for a long time discrepant by at least an order of magnitude. The standard model of CV evolution predicts that the vast majority of CVs should be period bouncers, whose space density has been recently measured to be ρ ≲ 2 × 10-5 pc-3. We performed population synthesis of CVs using an updated version of the Binary Stellar Evolution (BSE) code for single and binary star evolution. We find that the recently suggested empirical prescription of consequential angular momentum loss (CAML) brings into agreement predicted and observed space densities of CVs and period bouncers. To progress with our understanding of CV evolution it is crucial to understand the physical mechanism behind empirical CAML. Our changes to the BSE code are also provided in details, which will allow the community to accurately model mass transfer in interacting binaries in which degenerate objects accrete from low-mass main-sequence donor stars.

Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

PubMed Central

Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process. Results Using a new database of 13 time-calibrated angiosperm phylogenies based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and controlling for extrinsic variables of life history and habitat, I evaluated several potential intrinsic causes of this correlation. Speciation rates (λ) and relative extinction rates (ε) were positively correlated with mean substitution rates, but were uncorrelated with substitution rate heterogeneity. It is unlikely that the positive diversification-substitution correlation is due to accelerated molecular evolution during speciation (e.g., via enhanced selection or drift), because punctuated increases in ITS rate (i.e., greater mean and variation in ITS rate for rapidly speciating clades) were not observed. Instead, fast molecular evolution likely increases speciation rate (via increased mutational variation as a substrate for selection and reproductive isolation) but also increases extinction (via mutational genetic load). Conclusions In general, these results predict that clades with higher background substitution rates may undergo successful diversification under new conditions while clades with lower substitution rates may experience decreased extinction during environmental stasis. PMID:20515493

Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

PubMed

Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

2016-01-01

An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. © The Author(s) 2015.

Predicting the risk of patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade cancer.

PubMed

Gofrit, Ofer N; Zorn, Kevin C; Taxy, Jerome B; Lin, Shang; Zagaja, Gregory P; Steinberg, Gary D; Shalhav, Arieh L

2007-11-01

Prostate cancer Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 is currently the most common score assigned on prostatic biopsies. We analyzed the clinical variables that predict the likelihood of a patient with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade tumor. The study population consisted of 448 patients with a mean age of 59.1 years who underwent radical prostatectomy between February 2003 to October 2006 for Gleason score 6 adenocarcinoma. The effect of preoperative variables on the probability of a Gleason score upgrade on final pathological evaluation was evaluated using logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis. Gleason score upgrade was found in 91 of 448 patients (20.3%). Logistic regression showed that only serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core were significantly associated with a score upgrade (p = 0.0014 and 0.023, respectively). Classification and regression tree analysis showed that the risk of a Gleason score upgrade was 62% when serum prostate specific antigen was higher than 12 ng/ml and 18% when serum prostate specific antigen was 12 ng/ml or less. In patients with serum prostate specific antigen lower than 12 ng/ml the risk of a score upgrade could be dichotomized at a greatest percent of cancer in a core of 5%. The risk was 22.6% and 10.5% when the greatest percent of cancer in a core was higher than 5% and 5% or lower, respectively. The probability of patients with a prostate biopsy Gleason score of 6 to conceal a Gleason score of 7 or higher can be predicted using serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core. With these parameters it is possible to predict upgrade rates as high as 62% and as low as 10.5%.

Benzene patterns in different urban environments and a prediction model for benzene rates based on NOx values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz, Shlomit; Goldstein, Pavel; Kordova-Biezuner, Levana; Adler, Lea

2017-04-01

Exposure to benzene has been associated with multiple severe impacts on health. This notwithstanding, at most monitoring stations, benzene is not monitored on a regular basis. The aims of the study were to compare benzene rates in different urban environments (region with heavy traffic and industrial region), to analyse the relationship between benzene and meteorological parameters in a Mediterranean climate type, to estimate the linkages between benzene and NOx and to suggest a prediction model for benzene rates based on NOx levels in order contribute to a better estimation of benzene. Data were used from two different monitoring stations, located on the eastern Mediterranean coast: 1) a traffic monitoring station in Tel Aviv, Israel (TLV) located in an urban region with heavy traffic; 2) a general air quality monitoring station in Haifa Bay (HIB), located in Israel's main industrial region. At each station, hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual data of benzene, NOx, mean temperature, relative humidity, inversion level, and temperature gradient were analysed over three years: 2008, 2009, and 2010. A prediction model for benzene rates based on NOx levels (which are monitored regularly) was developed to contribute to a better estimation of benzene. The severity of benzene pollution was found to be considerably higher at the traffic monitoring station (TLV) than at the general air quality station (HIB), despite the location of the latter in an industrial area. Hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual patterns have been shown to coincide with anthropogenic activities (traffic), the day of the week, and atmospheric conditions. A strong correlation between NOx and benzene allowed the development of a prediction model for benzene rates, based on NOx, the day of the week, and the month. The model succeeded in predicting the benzene values throughout the year (except for September). The severity of benzene pollution was found to be considerably higher at the

Mergers in ΛCDM: Uncertainties in Theoretical Predictions and Interpretations of the Merger Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Philip F.; Croton, Darren; Bundy, Kevin; Khochfar, Sadegh; van den Bosch, Frank; Somerville, Rachel S.; Wetzel, Andrew; Keres, Dusan; Hernquist, Lars; Stewart, Kyle; Younger, Joshua D.; Genel, Shy; Ma, Chung-Pei

2010-12-01

Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of ~2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo "destruction" rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of ~2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with "orphan" galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely over-estimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semi-analytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors (~5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of ~1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite "over-quenching" in most current SAMs—whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas—could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this "over-quenching") tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of ~2 uncertainties stemming from the uncertainty in those

Mass gathering medicine: event factors predicting patient presentation rates.

PubMed

Locoh-Donou, Samuel; Yan, Guofen; Berry, Thomas; O'Connor, Robert; Sochor, Mark; Charlton, Nathan; Brady, William

2016-08-01

This study was conducted to identify the event characteristics of mass gatherings that predict patient presentation rates held in a southeastern US university community. We conducted a retrospective review of all event-based emergency medical services (EMS) records from mass gathering patient presentations over an approximate 23 month period, from October 24, 2009 to August 27, 2011. All patrons seen by EMS were included. Event characteristics included: crowd size, venue percentage filled seating, venue location (inside/outside), venue boundaries (bounded/unbounded), presence of free water (i.e., without cost), presence of alcohol, average heat index, presence of climate control (i.e., air conditioning), and event category (football, concerts, public exhibitions, non-football athletic events). We identified 79 mass gathering events, for a total of 670 patient presentations. The cumulative patron attendance was 917,307 persons. The patient presentation rate (PPR) for each event was calculated as the number of patient presentations per 10,000 patrons in attendance. Overdispersed Poisson regression was used to relate this rate to the event characteristics while controlling for crowd size. In univariate analyses, increased rates of patient presentations were strongly associated with outside venues [rate ratio (RR) = 3.002, p < 0.001], unbounded venues (RR = 2.839, p = 0.001), absence of free water (RR = 1.708, p = 0.036), absence of climate control (RR = 3.028, p < 0.001), and a higher heat index (RR = 1.211 per 10-unit heat index increase, p = 0.003). The presence of alcohol was not significantly associated with the PPR. Football events had the highest PPR, followed sequentially by public exhibitions, concerts, and non-football athletic events. In multivariate models, the strong predictors from the univariate analyses retained their predictive significance for the PPR, together with heat index and percent seating. In the setting of mass event

Predicting discovery rates of genomic features.

PubMed

Gravel, Simon

2014-06-01

Successful sequencing experiments require judicious sample selection. However, this selection must often be performed on the basis of limited preliminary data. Predicting the statistical properties of the final sample based on preliminary data can be challenging, because numerous uncertain model assumptions may be involved. Here, we ask whether we can predict "omics" variation across many samples by sequencing only a fraction of them. In the infinite-genome limit, we find that a pilot study sequencing 5% of a population is sufficient to predict the number of genetic variants in the entire population within 6% of the correct value, using an estimator agnostic to demography, selection, or population structure. To reach similar accuracy in a finite genome with millions of polymorphisms, the pilot study would require ∼15% of the population. We present computationally efficient jackknife and linear programming methods that exhibit substantially less bias than the state of the art when applied to simulated data and subsampled 1000 Genomes Project data. Extrapolating based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Exome Sequencing Project data, we predict that 7.2% of sites in the capture region would be variable in a sample of 50,000 African Americans and 8.8% in a European sample of equal size. Finally, we show how the linear programming method can also predict discovery rates of various genomic features, such as the number of transcription factor binding sites across different cell types. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, James H., Jr.

2012-01-01

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeCastro, Jonathan A.

2006-01-01

An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

Why Are Child Poverty Rates Higher in Britain than in Germany? A Longitudinal Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenkins, Stephen P.; Schluter, Christian

2003-01-01

We analyze why child poverty rates were much higher in Britain than in Western Germany during the 1990s, using a framework focusing on poverty transition rates. Child poverty exit rates were significantly lower, and poverty entry rates significantly higher, in Britain. We decompose these cross-national differences into differences in the…

Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

2009-01-01

Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection.

PubMed Central

Woolliams, J A; Bijma, P

2000-01-01

Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (DeltaF) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship between squared long-term genetic contributions and rates of inbreeding was extended to nonrandom mating and to overlapping generations. DeltaF was shown to be approximately (1)/(4)(1 - omega) times the expected sum of squared lifetime contributions, where omega is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions. This relationship cannot be used for prediction since it is based upon observed quantities. Therefore, the relationship was further developed to express DeltaF in terms of expected long-term contributions that are conditional on a set of selective advantages that relate the selection processes in two consecutive generations and are predictable quantities. With random mating, if selected family sizes are assumed to be independent Poisson variables then the expected long-term contribution could be substituted for the observed, providing (1)/(4) (since omega = 0) was increased to (1)/(2). Established theory was used to provide a correction term to account for deviations from the Poisson assumptions. The equations were successfully applied, using simple linear models, to the problem of predicting DeltaF with sib indices in discrete generations since previously published solutions had proved complex. PMID:10747074

Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

2016-05-01

Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

Clinical evaluation of higher stimulation rates in the nucleus research platform 8 system.

PubMed

Plant, Kerrie; Holden, Laura; Skinner, Margo; Arcaroli, Jennifer; Whitford, Lesley; Law, Mary-Ann; Nel, Esti

2007-06-01

The effect on speech perception of using higher stimulation rates than the 14.4 kHz available in the Nucleus 24 cochlear implant system was investigated. The study used the Nucleus Research Platform 8 (RP8) system, comprising the CI24RE receiver-stimulator with the Contour electrode array, the L34SP body-worn research speech processor, and the Nucleus Programming Environment (NPE) fitting and Neural Response Telemetry (NRT) software. This system enabled clinical investigation of higher stimulation rates before an implementation in the Freedom cochlear implant system commercially released by Cochlear Limited. Use of higher stimulation rates in the ACE coding strategy was assessed in 15 adult subjects. An ABAB experimental design was used to control for order effects. Program A used a total stimulation rate of between 12 kHz and 14.4 kHz. This program was used for at least the first 3 mo after initial device activation. After evaluation with this program, each subject was provided with two different higher stimulation rate programs: one with a total stimulation rate of 24 kHz and the other with a total stimulation rate of 32 kHz. After a 6-week period of familiarization, each subject identified his/her preferred higher rate program (program B), and this was used for the evaluation. Subjects then repeated their use of program A for 3 wk, then program B for 3 wk, before the second evaluation with each. Speech perception was evaluated by using CNC open-set monosyllabic words presented in quiet and CUNY open-set sentences presented in noise. Preference for stimulation rate program was assessed via a subjective questionnaire. Threshold (T)- and Comfortable (C)-levels, as well as subjective reports of tinnitus, were monitored for each subject throughout the study to determine whether there were any changes that might be associated with the use of higher stimulation rates. No significant mean differences in speech perception results were found for the group between the two

Predicting Atomic Decay Rates Using an Informational-Entropic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleiser, Marcelo; Jiang, Nan

2018-06-01

We show that a newly proposed Shannon-like entropic measure of shape complexity applicable to spatially-localized or periodic mathematical functions known as configurational entropy (CE) can be used as a predictor of spontaneous decay rates for one-electron atoms. The CE is constructed from the Fourier transform of the atomic probability density. For the hydrogen atom with degenerate states labeled with the principal quantum number n, we obtain a scaling law relating the n-averaged decay rates to the respective CE. The scaling law allows us to predict the n-averaged decay rate without relying on the traditional computation of dipole matrix elements. We tested the predictive power of our approach up to n = 20, obtaining an accuracy better than 3.7% within our numerical precision, as compared to spontaneous decay tables listed in the literature.

Predicting Atomic Decay Rates Using an Informational-Entropic Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleiser, Marcelo; Jiang, Nan

2018-02-01

We show that a newly proposed Shannon-like entropic measure of shape complexity applicable to spatially-localized or periodic mathematical functions known as configurational entropy (CE) can be used as a predictor of spontaneous decay rates for one-electron atoms. The CE is constructed from the Fourier transform of the atomic probability density. For the hydrogen atom with degenerate states labeled with the principal quantum number n, we obtain a scaling law relating the n-averaged decay rates to the respective CE. The scaling law allows us to predict the n-averaged decay rate without relying on the traditional computation of dipole matrix elements. We tested the predictive power of our approach up to n = 20, obtaining an accuracy better than 3.7% within our numerical precision, as compared to spontaneous decay tables listed in the literature.

Predicting self-rated mental and physical health: the contributions of subjective socioeconomic status and personal relative deprivation

PubMed Central

Callan, Mitchell J.; Kim, Hyunji; Matthews, William J.

2015-01-01

Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD) relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people's perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others) and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints). Across six studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES), with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4–6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability) or response biases between the measures. PMID:26441786

Neonatal heart rate prediction.

PubMed

Abdel-Rahman, Yumna; Jeremic, Aleksander; Tan, Kenneth

2009-01-01

Technological advances have caused a decrease in the number of infant deaths. Pre-term infants now have a substantially increased chance of survival. One of the mechanisms that is vital to saving the lives of these infants is continuous monitoring and early diagnosis. With continuous monitoring huge amounts of data are collected with so much information embedded in them. By using statistical analysis this information can be extracted and used to aid diagnosis and to understand development. In this study we have a large dataset containing over 180 pre-term infants whose heart rates were recorded over the length of their stay in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). We test two types of models, empirical bayesian and autoregressive moving average. We then attempt to predict future values. The autoregressive moving average model showed better results but required more computation.

Error-rate prediction for programmable circuits: methodology, tools and studied cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velazco, Raoul

2013-05-01

This work presents an approach to predict the error rates due to Single Event Upsets (SEU) occurring in programmable circuits as a consequence of the impact or energetic particles present in the environment the circuits operate. For a chosen application, the error-rate is predicted by combining the results obtained from radiation ground testing and the results of fault injection campaigns performed off-beam during which huge numbers of SEUs are injected during the execution of the studied application. The goal of this strategy is to obtain accurate results about different applications' error rates, without using particle accelerator facilities, thus significantly reducing the cost of the sensitivity evaluation. As a case study, this methodology was applied a complex processor, the Power PC 7448 executing a program issued from a real space application and a crypto-processor application implemented in an SRAM-based FPGA and accepted to be embedded in the payload of a scientific satellite of NASA. The accuracy of predicted error rates was confirmed by comparing, for the same circuit and application, predictions with measures issued from radiation ground testing performed at the cyclotron Cyclone cyclotron of HIF (Heavy Ion Facility) of Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium).

Cross-validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: Knowledge of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) is necessary for determining individual total energy requirements. Measurement of RMR is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, the accuracy of these equations...

Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2017-04-01

Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore

PubMed Central

Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

2015-01-01

Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI. PMID:27231403

Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

PubMed

Tran, Lucy A P

2016-04-01

Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

Predicting progression of glaucoma from rates of frequency doubling technology perimetry change.

PubMed

Meira-Freitas, Daniel; Tatham, Andrew J; Lisboa, Renato; Kuang, Tung-Mei; Zangwill, Linda M; Weinreb, Robert N; Girkin, Christopher A; Liebmann, Jeffrey M; Medeiros, Felipe A

2014-02-01

To evaluate the ability of longitudinal frequency doubling technology (FDT) to predict the development of glaucomatous visual field loss on standard automated perimetry (SAP) in glaucoma suspects. Prospective, observational cohort study. The study included 587 eyes of 367 patients with suspected glaucoma at baseline selected from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study (ADAGES). These eyes had an average of 6.7 ± 1.9 FDT tests during a mean follow-up time of 73.1 ± 28.0 months. Glaucoma suspects had intraocular pressure (IOP) >21 mmHg or an optic disc appearance suspicious of glaucoma. All patients had normal or nonrepeatable abnormal SAP at baseline. Humphrey Matrix FDT (Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, CA) testing was performed within 6 months of SAP testing. The study end point was the development of 3 consecutive abnormal SAP test results. Joint longitudinal survival models were used to evaluate the ability of rates of FDT pattern standard deviation (PSD) change to predict the development of visual field loss on SAP, adjusting for confounding variables (baseline age, mean IOP, corneal thickness, and follow-up measurements of SAP PSD). The R(2) index was used to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of the model containing longitudinal FDT PSD data with the model containing only baseline data. Sixty-three of 587 eyes (11%) developed SAP visual field loss during follow-up. The mean rate of FDT PSD change in eyes that developed SAP visual field loss was 0.07 dB/year versus 0.02 dB/year in those that did not (P < 0.001). Baseline FDT PSD and slopes of FDT PSD change were significantly predictive of progression, with hazard ratios of 1.11 per 0.1 dB higher (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002) and 4.40 per 0.1 dB/year faster (95% CI, 1.08-17.96; P = 0.04), respectively. The longitudinal model performed significantly better than the baseline model with an R(2) of 82% (95% CI

Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

2012-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

Prediction of Change in Prescription Ingredient Costs and Co-payment Rates under a Reference Pricing System in South Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Ji Haeng; Rascati, Karen L; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-05-01

The reference pricing system (RPS) establishes reference prices within interchangeable reference groupings. For drugs priced higher than the reference point, patients pay the difference between the reference price and the total price. To predict potential changes in prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates after implementation of an RPS in South Korea. Korean National Health Insurance claims data were used as a baseline to develop possible RPS models. Five components of a potential RPS policy were varied: reference groupings, reference pricing methods, co-pay reduction programs, manufacturer price reductions, and increased drug substitutions. The potential changes for prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates were predicted for the various scenarios. It was predicted that transferring the difference (total price minus reference price) from the insurer to patients would reduce ingredient costs from 1.4% to 22.8% for the third-party payer (government), but patient co-payment rates would increase from a baseline of 20.4% to 22.0% using chemical groupings and to 25.0% using therapeutic groupings. Savings rates in prescription ingredient costs (government and patient combined) were predicted to range from 1.6% to 13.7% depending on various scenarios. Although the co-payment rate would increase, a 15% price reduction by manufacturers coupled with a substitution rate of 30% would result in a decrease in the co-payment amount (change in absolute dollars vs. change in rates). Our models predicted that the implementation of RPS in South Korea would lead to savings in ingredient costs for the third-party payer and co-payments for patients with potential scenarios. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Kinetics of protein–ligand unbinding: Predicting pathways, rates, and rate-limiting steps

PubMed Central

Tiwary, Pratyush; Limongelli, Vittorio; Salvalaglio, Matteo; Parrinello, Michele

2015-01-01

The ability to predict the mechanisms and the associated rate constants of protein–ligand unbinding is of great practical importance in drug design. In this work we demonstrate how a recently introduced metadynamics-based approach allows exploration of the unbinding pathways, estimation of the rates, and determination of the rate-limiting steps in the paradigmatic case of the trypsin–benzamidine system. Protein, ligand, and solvent are described with full atomic resolution. Using metadynamics, multiple unbinding trajectories that start with the ligand in the crystallographic binding pose and end with the ligand in the fully solvated state are generated. The unbinding rate koff is computed from the mean residence time of the ligand. Using our previously computed binding affinity we also obtain the binding rate kon. Both rates are in agreement with reported experimental values. We uncover the complex pathways of unbinding trajectories and describe the critical rate-limiting steps with unprecedented detail. Our findings illuminate the role played by the coupling between subtle protein backbone fluctuations and the solvation by water molecules that enter the binding pocket and assist in the breaking of the shielded hydrogen bonds. We expect our approach to be useful in calculating rates for general protein–ligand systems and a valid support for drug design. PMID:25605901

Medical School Factors Associated with Higher Rates of Recruitment into Psychiatry.

PubMed

Spollen, John J; Beck Dallaghan, Gary L; Briscoe, Gregory W; Delanoche, Nancy D; Hales, Deborah J

2017-04-01

The medical school a student attends appears to be a factor in whether students eventually match into psychiatry. Knowledge of which factors are associated with medical schools with higher recruitment rates into psychiatry may assist in developing strategies to increase recruitment. Psychiatry leaders in medical student education in the 25 highest and lowest recruiting US allopathic schools were surveyed concerning various factors that could be important such as curriculum, educational leadership, and presence of anti-psychiatry stigma. The relationship between the survey results of high recruiting schools versus those of low recruiting schools was evaluated using Mann-Whitney U tests. Factors significantly associated (p < .05) with higher recruiting schools included better reputation of the psychiatry department and residents, perceived higher respect for psychiatry among non-psychiatry faculty, less perception that students dissuaded other students from pursuing psychiatry, and longer clerkship length. Educational culture and climate factors may have a significant impact on psychiatry recruitment rates. Clerkship length was associated with higher recruiting schools, but several previous studies with more complete samples have not shown this.

Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

2017-02-01

Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

1984-2008. Predictions for Higher Education. From the 25th Anniversary Colloquium. [Proceedings].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardee, Melvene Draheim, Ed.

Predictions on higher education for 1984-2009 are presented in the proceedings of a colloquium of the Institute for Studies in Higher Education of Florida State University. Presentations were made at the colloquium by 10 graduates of the university whose current positions represent administration-management, instruction, research, and student…

Can Twitter be used to predict county excessive alcohol consumption rates?

PubMed Central

Ashford, Robert D.; Hemmons, Jessie; Summers, Dan; Hamilton, Casey

2018-01-01

Objectives The current study analyzes a large set of Twitter data from 1,384 US counties to determine whether excessive alcohol consumption rates can be predicted by the words being posted from each county. Methods Data from over 138 million county-level tweets were analyzed using predictive modeling, differential language analysis, and mediating language analysis. Results Twitter language data captures cross-sectional patterns of excessive alcohol consumption beyond that of sociodemographic factors (e.g. age, gender, race, income, education), and can be used to accurately predict rates of excessive alcohol consumption. Additionally, mediation analysis found that Twitter topics (e.g. ‘ready gettin leave’) can explain much of the variance associated between socioeconomics and excessive alcohol consumption. Conclusions Twitter data can be used to predict public health concerns such as excessive drinking. Using mediation analysis in conjunction with predictive modeling allows for a high portion of the variance associated with socioeconomic status to be explained. PMID:29617408

What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

2015-01-01

The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

2016-10-01

Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

High Heating Rates Affect Greatly the Inactivation Rate of Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Huertas, Juan-Pablo; Aznar, Arantxa; Esnoz, Arturo; Fernández, Pablo S; Iguaz, Asunción; Periago, Paula M; Palop, Alfredo

2016-01-01

Heat resistance of microorganisms can be affected by different influencing factors. Although, the effect of heating rates has been scarcely explored by the scientific community, recent researches have unraveled its important effect on the thermal resistance of different species of vegetative bacteria. Typically heating rates described in the literature ranged from 1 to 20°C/min but the impact of much higher heating rates is unclear. The aim of this research was to explore the effect of different heating rates, such as those currently achieved in the heat exchangers used in the food industry, on the heat resistance of Escherichia coli. A pilot plant tubular heat exchanger and a thermoresistometer Mastia were used for this purpose. Results showed that fast heating rates had a deep impact on the thermal resistance of E. coli. Heating rates between 20 and 50°C/min were achieved in the heat exchanger, which were much slower than those around 20°C/s achieved in the thermoresistometer. In all cases, these high heating rates led to higher inactivation than expected: in the heat exchanger, for all the experiments performed, when the observed inactivation had reached about seven log cycles, the predictions estimated about 1 log cycle of inactivation; in the thermoresistometer these differences between observed and predicted values were even more than 10 times higher, from 4.07 log cycles observed to 0.34 predicted at a flow rate of 70 mL/min and a maximum heating rate of 14.7°C/s. A quantification of the impact of the heating rates on the level of inactivation achieved was established. These results point out the important effect that the heating rate has on the thermal resistance of E. coli, with high heating rates resulting in an additional sensitization to heat and therefore an effective food safety strategy in terms of food processing.

Heroin and cocaine abusers have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than alcoholics or non-drug-using controls.

PubMed

Kirby, Kris N; Petry, Nancy M

2004-04-01

To test a prediction of the discounting model of impulsiveness that discount rates would be positively associated with addiction. The delay-discount rate refers to the rate of reduction in the present value of a future reward as the delay to that reward increases. We estimated participants' discount rates on the basis of their pattern of choices between smaller immediate rewards ($11-80) and larger, delayed rewards ($25-85; at delays from 1 week to 6 months) in a questionnaire format. Participants had a one-in-six chance of winning a reward that they chose on one randomly selected trial. Heroin (n = 27), cocaine (n = 41) and alcohol (n = 33) abusers and non-drug-using controls (n = 44) were recruited from advertisements. They were tested in a drug abuse research clinic at a medical school. On average, the cocaine and heroin groups had higher rates than controls (both P < 0.001), but alcoholics did not (P = 0.44). Abstinence was associated with lower rates for heroin abusers (P = 0.03), but not for cocaine or alcohol abusers (both P > 0.50). These data suggest that discount rates vary with the preferred drug of abuse, and that high discount rates should be considered in the development of substance abuse prevention and treatment efforts.

Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

PubMed

Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

2011-11-01

1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

Cross-validation of recent and longstanding resting metabolic rate prediction equations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence predicted RMR accuracy at the individual lev...

[Mathematic Model for Prediction of Liver Fibrosis Progression Rate in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Based on Combination of Genomic Markers].

PubMed

Samokhodskaia, L M; Starostina, E E; Yarovaya, E B; Krasnova, T N; Mukhin, N A; Tkachuk, V A; Sadovnichy, V A

2015-01-01

To evaluate clinical significance of different combinations of gene polymorphisms IL-1b, IL-6, IL-10, TNF, HFE, TGF-b, ATR1, N0S3894, CYBA, AGT, MTHFR, FII, FV, FVII, FXIII, ITGA2, ITGB3, FBG, PAI and their prognostic value for prediction of liver fibrosis progression rate in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). 118 patients with CHC were divided into "fast" and "slow" (fibrosis rate progression ≥ 0.13 and < 0.13 fibrosis units/yr; n = 64 and n = 54) fibrosis groups. Gene polymorphisms were determined. Statistical analysis was performed using Statistica 10. A allele (p = 0.012) and genotype AA (p = 0.024) of AGT G-6T gene, as well as T allele (p = 0.013) and MT+TT genotypes (p = 0.005) of AGT 235 M/T gene were significantly more common in "fast fibrosers" than in "slow fibrosers". Patients with genotype TT of CYBA 242 C/T had a higher fibrosis progression rate than patients with CC+CT genotype (p = 0.02). Our analysis showed a protective effect of TTgenotype of ITGA2 807 C/T on fibrosis progression rate (p = 0.03). There was a trend (p < 0.15) to higher fibrosis progression rate in patients with mutant alleles and genotypes of TGFb +915 G/C, FXIII 103 G/T, PAI-675 5G/4G genes. Other gene polymorphisms were not associated with enhanced liver fibrosis. To build a mathematical modelfor prediction of liverfibrosis progression rate we performed coding with scores for genotypes and virus genotype. Total score correlated with the fibrosis progression rate (R = 0.39, p = 0.000). Determination of genetic profile of the patient and virus genotype allows to predict the course of CHC.

Prediction of change in protein unfolding rates upon point mutations in two state proteins.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Priyashree; Naganathan, Athi N; Gromiha, M Michael

2016-09-01

Studies on protein unfolding rates are limited and challenging due to the complexity of unfolding mechanism and the larger dynamic range of the experimental data. Though attempts have been made to predict unfolding rates using protein sequence-structure information there is no available method for predicting the unfolding rates of proteins upon specific point mutations. In this work, we have systematically analyzed a set of 790 single mutants and developed a robust method for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutations (Δlnku) in two-state proteins by combining amino acid properties and knowledge-based classification of mutants with multiple linear regression technique. We obtain a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.79/s and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.71 between predicted unfolding rates and experimental observations using jack-knife test. We have developed a web server for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutation and it is freely available at https://www.iitm.ac.in/bioinfo/proteinunfolding/unfoldingrace.html. Prominent features that determine unfolding kinetics as well as plausible reasons for the observed outliers are also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the dollar to the ruble rate. A system-theoretic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodachev, Sergey M.

2017-07-01

Proposed a simple state-space model of dollar rate formation based on changes in oil prices and some mechanisms of money transfer between monetary and stock markets. Comparison of predictions by means of input-output model and state-space model is made. It concludes that with proper use of statistical data (Kalman filter) the second approach provides more adequate predictions of the dollar rate.

Do heart and respiratory rate variability improve prediction of extubation outcomes in critically ill patients?

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction Prolonged ventilation and failed extubation are associated with increased harm and cost. The added value of heart and respiratory rate variability (HRV and RRV) during spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs) to predict extubation failure remains unknown. Methods We enrolled 721 patients in a multicenter (12 sites), prospective, observational study, evaluating clinical estimates of risk of extubation failure, physiologic measures recorded during SBTs, HRV and RRV recorded before and during the last SBT prior to extubation, and extubation outcomes. We excluded 287 patients because of protocol or technical violations, or poor data quality. Measures of variability (97 HRV, 82 RRV) were calculated from electrocardiogram and capnography waveforms followed by automated cleaning and variability analysis using Continuous Individualized Multiorgan Variability Analysis (CIMVA™) software. Repeated randomized subsampling with training, validation, and testing were used to derive and compare predictive models. Results Of 434 patients with high-quality data, 51 (12%) failed extubation. Two HRV and eight RRV measures showed statistically significant association with extubation failure (P <0.0041, 5% false discovery rate). An ensemble average of five univariate logistic regression models using RRV during SBT, yielding a probability of extubation failure (called WAVE score), demonstrated optimal predictive capacity. With repeated random subsampling and testing, the model showed mean receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 0.69, higher than heart rate (0.51), rapid shallow breathing index (RBSI; 0.61) and respiratory rate (0.63). After deriving a WAVE model based on all data, training-set performance demonstrated that the model increased its predictive power when applied to patients conventionally considered high risk: a WAVE score >0.5 in patients with RSBI >105 and perceived high risk of failure yielded a fold increase in risk of extubation

Assessing predicted age-specific breast cancer mortality rates in 27 European countries by 2020.

PubMed

Clèries, R; Rooney, R M; Vilardell, M; Espinàs, J A; Dyba, T; Borras, J M

2018-03-01

We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000-2010. BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000-2004 and 2006-2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006-2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators.

PubMed

Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s -channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s -channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... initial year a new style or type of minimum basic uniform is required for a category of employees, an...

Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment. [impact of heating rate prediction errors on weight of thermal protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fehrman, A. L.; Masek, R. V.

1972-01-01

Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

Rate of Contrast Extravasation on CT Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Brouwers, H. Bart; Battey, Thomas W.K.; Musial, Hayley H.; Ciura, Viesha A.; Falcone, Guido J.; Ayres, Alison M.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D.; Greenberg, Steven M.; Pomerantz, Stuart R.; Ortiz, Claudia J.; Goldstein, Joshua N.; Gonzalez, R. Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose In primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), the presence of contrast extravasation following CT angiography (CTA), termed the ‘spot sign’, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Since the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation - which may reflect the rate of bleeding - predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Methods Consecutive ICH patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed post-contrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by two blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and ICH volumes were measured using semi-automated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regression. Results 162 patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23mL/min overall, and 0.30mL/min among expanders versus 0.07mL/min in non-expanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27mL/min versus 0.04mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (OR1.09 [95%CI 1.04–1.18], p=0.004), 90-day mortality (OR1.15 [95%CI 1.08–1.27], p=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (OR1.03 [95%CI 1.01–1.08], p=0.047). Conclusions Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute ICH. PMID:26243220

Enabling Higher Data Rates for Planetary Science Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deutsch, L. J.; Townes, S. A.; Lazio, J.; Bell, D. J.; Chahat, N. E.; Kovalik, J. M.; Kuperman, I.; Sauder, J.; Liebrecht, P. E.

2017-12-01

The data rate from deep space spacecraft has increased by more than 10 orders of magnitude since the first lunar missions in the 1960s. The demand for increased data rates has stemmed from the increasing sophistication of the science questions being addressed and the concomitant increase in the complexity of the missions themselves (from fly-by to orbit to land and rove). Projections for the next few decades suggest the demand for data rates for deep space missions will continue to increase by approximately one order of magnitude every decade, driven by these same factors. Achieving higher data rates requires a partnership between the spacecraft and the ground system. We describe a series of technology developments for flight telecommunications systems, both at radio frequency (RF) and optical, to enable spacecraft to transmit and receive larger data volumes. These technology developments include deployable high gain antennas for small spacecraft, re-programmable software-defined radios, and optical communication packages designed for CubeSat form factors. The intent is that these developments would provide enhancements in capability for both spacecraft-Earth and spacecraft-spacecraft telecommunications. We also describe the future planning for NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN), which remains the prime conduit for data from all planetary science missions. Through a combination of new antennas and backends being installed over the next five years and incorporation of optical communications, the DSN aims to ensure that the historical improvements in data rates and volumes will continue for many decades. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Measured maximal heart rates compared to commonly used age-based prediction equations in the Heritage Family Study.

PubMed

Sarzynski, M A; Rankinen, T; Earnest, C P; Leon, A S; Rao, D C; Skinner, J S; Bouchard, C

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine how well two commonly used age-based prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax ) estimate the actual HRmax measured in Black and White adults from the HERITAGE Family Study. A total of 762 sedentary subjects (39% Black, 57% Females) from HERITAGE were included. HRmax was measured during maximal exercise tests using cycle ergometers. Age-based HRmax was predicted using the Fox (220-age) and Tanaka (208 - 0.7 × age) formulas. The standard error of estimate (SEE) of predicted HRmax was 12.4 and 11.4 bpm for the Fox and Tanaka formulas, respectively, indicating a wide-spread of measured-HRmax values are compared to their age-predicted values. The SEE (shown as Fox/Tanaka) was higher in Blacks (14.4/13.1 bpm) and Males (12.6/11.7 bpm) compared to Whites (11.0/10.2 bpm) and Females (12.3/11.2 bpm) for both formulas. The SEE was higher in subjects above the BMI median (12.8/11.9 bpm) and below the fitness median (13.4/12.4 bpm) when compared to those below the BMI median (12.2/11.0 bpm) and above the fitness median (11.4/10.3) for both formulas. Our findings show that based on the SEE, the prevailing age-based estimated HRmax equations do not precisely predict an individual's measured-HRmax . Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The utility of kindergarten teacher ratings for predicting low academic achievement in first grade.

PubMed

Teisl, J T; Mazzocco, M M; Myers, G F

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of kindergarten teachers' ratings of pupils for later first-grade academic achievement. Kindergarten students were rated by their teachers on a variety of variables, including math and reading performance, teacher concerns, and amount of learning relative to peers. These variables were then analyzed with respect to outcome measures for math and reading ability administered in the first grade. The teachers' ratings of academic performance were significantly correlated with scores on the outcome measures. Analyses were also carried out to determine sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the different teacher ratings. The results indicated high overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the ratings. Positive predictive value tended to be lower. A recommendation to follow from these results is that teacher ratings of this sort be used to determine which children should receive cognitive screening measures to further enhance identification of children at risk for learning disability. However, this recommendation is limited by the lack of empirically supported screening measures for math disability versus well-supported screening tools for reading disability.

[Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

PubMed

Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

2016-07-12

To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

PubMed

Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

2010-01-01

Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

Application of empirical Bayes methods to predict the rate of decline in ERG at the individual level among patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

PubMed

Qiu, Weiliang; Sandberg, Michael A; Rosner, Bernard

2018-05-31

Retinitis pigmentosa is one of the most common forms of inherited retinal degeneration. The electroretinogram (ERG) can be used to determine the severity of retinitis pigmentosa-the lower the ERG amplitude, the more severe the disease is. In practice for career, lifestyle, and treatment counseling, it is of interest to predict the ERG amplitude of a patient at a future time. One approach is prediction based on the average rate of decline for individual patients. However, there is considerable variation both in initial amplitude and in rate of decline. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach to incorporate the variations in initial amplitude and rate of decline for the prediction of ERG amplitude at the individual level. We applied the EB method to a collection of ERGs from 898 patients with 3 or more visits over 5 or more years of follow-up tested in the Berman-Gund Laboratory and observed that the predicted values at the last (kth) visit obtained by using the proposed method based on data for the first k-1 visits are highly correlated with the observed values at the kth visit (Spearman correlation =0.93) and have a higher correlation with the observed values than those obtained based on either the population average decline rate or those obtained based on the individual decline rate. The mean square errors for predicted values obtained by the EB method are also smaller than those predicted by the other methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

PubMed

Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

United States private schools have higher rates of exemptions to school immunization requirements than public schools.

PubMed

Shaw, Jana; Tserenpuntsag, Boldtsetseg; McNutt, Louise-Anne; Halsey, Neal

2014-07-01

To compare medical, religious, and personal belief immunization exemption rates between private and public schools in US. Exemption rates were calculated using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention School Immunization Assessment Surveys for the 2009-2010 school year excluding states with incomplete survey data. Standardized exemption rates weighted on enrollments in public and private schools were calculated. Differences in exemption rates between public and private schools were tested using Wilcoxon signed rank test. The overall state exemption rate was higher in US private than public schools, 4.25% (SD 4.27) vs 1.91% (1.67), P = .0001 and private schools had higher exemption rates for all types of exemptions; medical 0.58% (0.71) vs 0.34% (0.34) respectively (P = .0004), religious 2.09% (3.14) vs 0.83% (1.05) respectively (P = .0001), and personal belief 6.10% (4.12) vs 2.79% (1.57), respectively (P = .006). Overall exemption rates were significantly higher in states that allowed personal belief exemptions. Exemption rates were significantly higher in US private than in public schools. Children attending private schools may be at higher risk of vaccine-preventable diseases than public school children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High Heating Rates Affect Greatly the Inactivation Rate of Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Huertas, Juan-Pablo; Aznar, Arantxa; Esnoz, Arturo; Fernández, Pablo S.; Iguaz, Asunción; Periago, Paula M.; Palop, Alfredo

2016-01-01

Heat resistance of microorganisms can be affected by different influencing factors. Although, the effect of heating rates has been scarcely explored by the scientific community, recent researches have unraveled its important effect on the thermal resistance of different species of vegetative bacteria. Typically heating rates described in the literature ranged from 1 to 20°C/min but the impact of much higher heating rates is unclear. The aim of this research was to explore the effect of different heating rates, such as those currently achieved in the heat exchangers used in the food industry, on the heat resistance of Escherichia coli. A pilot plant tubular heat exchanger and a thermoresistometer Mastia were used for this purpose. Results showed that fast heating rates had a deep impact on the thermal resistance of E. coli. Heating rates between 20 and 50°C/min were achieved in the heat exchanger, which were much slower than those around 20°C/s achieved in the thermoresistometer. In all cases, these high heating rates led to higher inactivation than expected: in the heat exchanger, for all the experiments performed, when the observed inactivation had reached about seven log cycles, the predictions estimated about 1 log cycle of inactivation; in the thermoresistometer these differences between observed and predicted values were even more than 10 times higher, from 4.07 log cycles observed to 0.34 predicted at a flow rate of 70 mL/min and a maximum heating rate of 14.7°C/s. A quantification of the impact of the heating rates on the level of inactivation achieved was established. These results point out the important effect that the heating rate has on the thermal resistance of E. coli, with high heating rates resulting in an additional sensitization to heat and therefore an effective food safety strategy in terms of food processing. PMID:27563300

Vastus Lateralis Motor Unit Firing Rate Is Higher in Women With Patellofemoral Pain.

PubMed

Gallina, Alessio; Hunt, Michael A; Hodges, Paul W; Garland, S Jayne

2018-05-01

To compare neural drive, determined from motor unit firing rate, in the vastus medialis and lateralis in women with and without patellofemoral pain. Cross-sectional study. University research laboratory. Women (N=56) 19 to 35 years of age, including 36 with patellofemoral pain and 20 controls. Not applicable. Participants sustained an isometric knee extension contraction at 10% of their maximal voluntary effort for 70 seconds. Motor units (N=414) were identified using high-density surface electromyography. Average firing rate was calculated between 5 and 35 seconds after recruitment for each motor unit. Initial firing rate was the inverse of the first 3 motor unit interspike intervals. In control participants, vastus medialis motor units discharged at higher rates than vastus lateralis motor units (P=.001). This was not observed in women with patellofemoral pain (P=.78) because of a higher discharge rate of vastus lateralis compared with control participants (P=.002). No between-group differences were observed for vastus medialis (P=.93). Similar results were obtained for the initial motor unit firing rate. These findings suggest that women with patellofemoral pain have a higher neural drive to vastus lateralis but not vastus medialis, which may be a contributor of the altered patellar kinematics observed in some studies. The different neural drive may be an adaptation to patellofemoral pain, possibly to compensate for decreased quadriceps force production, or a precursor of patellofemoral pain. Copyright © 2018 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

2012-01-01

This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

Phenotype at diagnosis predicts recurrence rates in Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Ambergen, T; Odes, S; Riis, L; Langholz, E; Politi, P; Qasim, A; Koutroubakis, I; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Freitas, J; van Zeijl, G; Hoie, O; Bernklev, T; Beltrami, M; Rodriguez, D; Stockbrügger, R W; Moum, B

2006-08-01

In Crohn's disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning. To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis. A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non-surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease. A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.10)) whereas age >/=40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70-0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21-0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32-7.89)). A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North-South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres.

Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

Treesearch

Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

2015-01-01

How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

PubMed

Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

2016-02-01

Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing safer chemicals: predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes.

PubMed

Yin, H; Anders, M W; Korzekwa, K R; Higgins, L; Thummel, K E; Kharasch, E D; Jones, J P

1995-11-21

A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts the rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies (delta Hact) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1-difluoro-1,2,2-trichloroethane, 1,1,1-trifluro-2,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2,-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: In(rate, rat liver microsomes) = 44.99 - 1.79(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86; In(rate, human CYP2E1) = 46.99 - 1.77(delta Hact), r2 = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro metabolism by humans: In[F(-)]peak plasma = 42.87 - 1.57(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86. To our knowledge, these are the first in vivo human metabolic rates to be quantitatively predicted. Furthermore, this is one of the first examples where computational predictions and in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics.

Designing safer chemicals: predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes.

PubMed Central

Yin, H; Anders, M W; Korzekwa, K R; Higgins, L; Thummel, K E; Kharasch, E D; Jones, J P

1995-01-01

A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts the rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies (delta Hact) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1-difluoro-1,2,2-trichloroethane, 1,1,1-trifluro-2,2-dichloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2,-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: In(rate, rat liver microsomes) = 44.99 - 1.79(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86; In(rate, human CYP2E1) = 46.99 - 1.77(delta Hact), r2 = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro metabolism by humans: In[F(-)]peak plasma = 42.87 - 1.57(delta Hact), r2 = 0.86. To our knowledge, these are the first in vivo human metabolic rates to be quantitatively predicted. Furthermore, this is one of the first examples where computational predictions and in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. PMID:7479940

Prediction of infarction volume and infarction growth rate in acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Kamran, Saadat; Akhtar, Naveed; Alboudi, Ayman; Kamran, Kainat; Ahmad, Arsalan; Inshasi, Jihad; Salam, Abdul; Shuaib, Ashfaq; Qidwai, Uvais

2017-08-08

The prediction of infarction volume after stroke onset depends on the shape of the growth dynamics of the infarction. To understand growth patterns that predict lesion volume changes, we studied currently available models described in literature and compared the models with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System [ANFIS], a method previously unused in the prediction of infarction growth and infarction volume (IV). We included 67 patients with malignant middle cerebral artery [MMCA] stroke who underwent decompressive hemicraniectomy. All patients had at least three cranial CT scans prior to the surgery. The rate of growth and volume of infarction measured on the third CT was predicted with ANFIS without statistically significant difference compared to the ground truth [P = 0.489]. This was not possible with linear, logarithmic or exponential methods. ANFIS was able to predict infarction volume [IV3] over a wide range of volume [163.7-600 cm 3 ] and time [22-110 hours]. The cross correlation [CRR] indicated similarity between the ANFIS-predicted IV3 and original data of 82% for ANFIS, followed by logarithmic 70%, exponential 63% and linear 48% respectively. Our study shows that ANFIS is superior to previously defined methods in the prediction of infarction growth rate (IGR) with reasonable accuracy, over wide time and volume range.

Rate of Contrast Extravasation on Computed Tomographic Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Brouwers, H Bart; Battey, Thomas W K; Musial, Hayley H; Ciura, Viesha A; Falcone, Guido J; Ayres, Alison M; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D; Greenberg, Steven M; Pomerantz, Stuart R; Ortiz, Claudia J; Goldstein, Joshua N; Gonzalez, R Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M

2015-09-01

In primary intracerebral hemorrhage, the presence of contrast extravasation after computed tomographic angiography (CTA), termed the spot sign, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Because the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we investigated whether the rate of contrast extravasation, which may reflect the rate of bleeding, predicts expansion and mortality beyond the simple presence of the spot sign. Consecutive intracerebral hemorrhage patients with first-pass CTA followed by a 90-second delayed postcontrast CT (delayed CTA) were included. CTAs were reviewed for spot sign presence by 2 blinded readers. Spot sign volumes on first-pass and delayed CTA and intracerebral hemorrhage volumes were measured using semiautomated software. Extravasation rates were calculated and tested for association with hematoma expansion and mortality using uni- and multivariable logistic regressions. One hundred and sixty-two patients were included, 48 (30%) of whom had ≥1 spot sign. Median spot sign volume was 0.04 mL on first-pass CTA and 0.4 mL on delayed CTA. Median extravasation rate was 0.23 mL/min overall and 0.30 mL/min among expanders versus 0.07 mL/min in nonexpanders. Extravasation rates were also significantly higher in patients who died in hospital: 0.27 mL/min versus 0.04 mL/min. In multivariable analysis, the extravasation rate was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.18], P=0.004), 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.15 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.27]; P=0.0004), and hematoma expansion (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.08]; P=0.047). Contrast extravasation rate, or spot sign growth, further refines the ability to predict hematoma expansion and mortality. Our results support the hypothesis that the spot sign directly measures active bleeding in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Off Limits to Asian Americans? Predicting the Pursuit of Higher Education Administration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gin, Deborah Hearn-Chung

2013-01-01

Asian/Pacific Islanders (APIs) in the U.S. have experienced an increase in population, and higher education faculty, rates over the past two decades. However, a parallel increase among API higher education administrators is absent. To explore this disparity, this study surveyed all 180 Asian/Asian North American (AANA) faculty in graduate schools…

Dependency of exercise-induced T-wave alternans predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias from heart rate.

PubMed

Burattini, Laura; Man, Sumche; Fioretti, Sandro; Di Nardo, Francesco; Swenne, Cees A

2015-07-01

T-wave alternans (TWA) is a noninvasive index of risk for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias. It is known that TWA amplitude (TWAA) increases with heart rate (HR) but how the TWA predictive power varies with HR remains unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the dependency of exercise-induced TWA predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias from HR. TWA was identified using our HR adaptive match filter in exercise ECGs from 248 patients with implanted cardiac defibrillator (ICD), of which 72 developed ventricular tachycardia and/or fibrillation during the 4 year follow-up (ICD_Cases) and 176 did not (ICD_Controls). TWA predictive power was evaluated at HRs from 80 to 120 bpm by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) obtained using the maximum TWAA (maxTWAA) and the TWAA ratio (TWAAratio; i.e., the ratio between TWAA at a specific HR and at 80 bpm). TWAA increased with HR. At 80 bpm maxTWAA was lower than at 120 bpm in both ICD_Cases (22 μV vs 41 μV; P < 10(-2) ) and ICD_ Controls (16 μV vs 36 μV; P < 10(-4) ). However, only at 80 bpm ICD_Cases showed significantly higher maxTWAA than ICD_Controls (AUC = 0.6486; P = 0.0080). TWAAratio was higher in ICD_Controls than ICD_Cases for all HR but 120 bpm, and its predictive power was maximum at 115 bpm (AUC = 0.6914; P < 0.05). Exercise-induced TWA predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias, quantified using both maxTWAA and TWAAratio, was higher at low rather than at high HR. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting Bradycardia in Preterm Infants Using Point Process Analysis of Heart Rate.

PubMed

Gee, Alan H; Barbieri, Riccardo; Paydarfar, David; Indic, Premananda

2017-09-01

Episodes of bradycardia are common and recur sporadically in preterm infants, posing a threat to the developing brain and other vital organs. We hypothesize that bradycardias are a result of transient temporal destabilization of the cardiac autonomic control system and that fluctuations in the heart rate signal might contain information that precedes bradycardia. We investigate infant heart rate fluctuations with a novel application of point process theory. In ten preterm infants, we estimate instantaneous linear measures of the heart rate signal, use these measures to extract statistical features of bradycardia, and propose a simplistic framework for prediction of bradycardia. We present the performance of a prediction algorithm using instantaneous linear measures (mean area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.018) for over 440 bradycardia events. The algorithm achieves an average forecast time of 116 s prior to bradycardia onset (FPR = 0.15). Our analysis reveals that increased variance in the heart rate signal is a precursor of severe bradycardia. This increase in variance is associated with an increase in power from low content dynamics in the LF band (0.04-0.2 Hz) and lower multiscale entropy values prior to bradycardia. Point process analysis of the heartbeat time series reveals instantaneous measures that can be used to predict infant bradycardia prior to onset. Our findings are relevant to risk stratification, predictive monitoring, and implementation of preventative strategies for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with bradycardia in neonatal intensive care units.

Higher prevalence of wheezing and lower FEV1 and FVC percent predicted in adults with sickle cell anaemia: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Musa, Baba M; Galadanci, Najibah A; Rodeghier, Mark; Debaun, Michael R

2017-02-01

Respiratory symptoms including wheezing are common in adults with sickle cell anaemia (SCA), even in the absence of asthma. However, the prevalence of spirometry changes and respiratory symptoms in adults with SCA is unknown. Using a cross-sectional study design, we tested the hypothesis that adults with SCA (cases) would have higher rates of lower airway obstruction and wheezing than those without SCA (controls) using the American Thoracic Society Division of Lung Diseases' questionnaire. Patients were adults with SCA aged between 18 and 65 years. Controls were consecutive unselected individuals without SCA who presented to an outpatient general medicine clinic. We enrolled 150 adults with SCA and 287 consecutive controls without SCA. The median age was 23.0 and 27.0 years for adults with and without SCA, respectively. Cases were more likely to report cough without a cold (35.0% vs 18.6%, P < 0.001), lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) % predicted (70.1% vs 82.1%, P = 0.001) and lower forced vital capacity (FVC) % predicted (67.4% vs 74.9%, P = 0.001) than controls. In the multivariable model, wheezing was significantly associated with SCA status (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.08-2.65, P = 0.024). Similarly, FEV 1 % predicted was significantly associated with SCA status and wheezing (P = 0.001 for both). Adults with SCA experience a higher rate of wheezing and impaired respiratory functions compared with controls from the same region. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Prediction of Rate Constant for Supramolecular Systems with Multiconfigurations.

PubMed

Guo, Tao; Li, Haiyan; Wu, Li; Guo, Zhen; Yin, Xianzhen; Wang, Caifen; Sun, Lixin; Shao, Qun; Gu, Jingkai; York, Peter; Zhang, Jiwen

2016-02-25

The control of supramolecular systems requires a thorough understanding of their dynamics, especially on a molecular level. It is extremely difficult to determine the thermokinetic parameters of supramolecular systems, such as drug-cyclodextrin complexes with fast association/dissociation processes by experimental techniques. In this paper, molecular modeling combined with novel mathematical relationships integrating the thermodynamic/thermokinetic parameters of a series of isomeric multiconfigurations to predict the overall parameters in a range of pH values have been employed to study supramolecular dynamics at the molecular level. A suitable form of Eyring's equation was derived and a two-stage model was introduced. The new approach enabled accurate prediction of the apparent dissociation/association (k(off)/k(on)) and unbinding/binding (k-r/kr) rate constants of the ubiquitous multiconfiguration complexes of the supramolecular system. The pyronine Y (PY) was used as a model system for the validation of the presented method. Interestingly, the predicted k(off) value ((40 ± 1) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K) of PY is largely in agreement with that previously determined by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy ((5 ± 3) × 10(5) s(-1), 298 K). Moreover, the k(off)/k(on) and k-r/kr for flurbiprofen-β-cylcodextrin and ibuprofen-β-cyclodextrin systems were also predicted and suggested that the association processes are diffusion-controlled. The methodology is considered to be especially useful in the design and selection of excipients for a supramolecular system with preferred association and dissociation rate constants and understanding their mechanisms. It is believed that this new approach could be applicable to a wide range of ligand-receptor supramolecular systems and will surely help in understanding their complex mechanism.

Reading the IT Leaves: Four Predictions for Higher Education Technology in 2011

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grush, Mary

2011-01-01

No start to the new year is complete without media prognostications for the 12 months ahead. Leaving the social, political, and economic fad predictions to others, "CT" asked four members of its editorial and conference advisory boards to identify information technology trends in higher education that are beginning to take real hold in 2011--the…

Why Are Child Poverty Rates Higher in Britain Than in Germany? A Longitudinal Perspective. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenkins, Stephen P.; Schluter, Christian

This study analyzed why child poverty rates were so much higher in Great Britain than in Western Germany during the 1990s, focusing on why child poverty exit rates were lower and child poverty entry rates were higher in Great Britain. Researchers used a form of decomposition analysis comparing cross-nationally the prevalence of events that…

A higher chest compression rate may be necessary for metronome-guided cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

PubMed

Chung, Tae Nyoung; Kim, Sun Wook; You, Je Sung; Cho, Young Soon; Chung, Sung Phil; Park, Incheol

2012-01-01

Metronome guidance is a simple and economical feedback system for guiding cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). However, a recent study showed that metronome guidance reduced the depth of chest compression. The results of previous studies suggest that a higher chest compression rate is associated with a better CPR outcome as compared with a lower chest compression rate, irrespective of metronome use. Based on this finding, we hypothesized that a lower chest compression rate promotes a reduction in chest compression depth in the recent study rather than metronome use itself. One minute of chest compression-only CPR was performed following the metronome sound played at 1 of 4 different rates: 80, 100, 120, and 140 ticks/min. Average compression depths (ACDs) and duty cycles were compared using repeated measures analysis of variance, and the values in the absence and presence of metronome guidance were compared. Both the ACD and duty cycle increased when the metronome rate increased (P = .017, <.001). Average compression depths for the CPR procedures following the metronome rates of 80 and 100 ticks/min were significantly lower than those for the procedures without metronome guidance. The ACD and duty cyle for chest compression increase as the metronome rate increases during metronome-guided CPR. A higher rate of chest compression is necessary for metronome-guided CPR to prevent suboptimal quality of chest compression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting basal metabolic rates in Malaysian adult elite athletes.

PubMed

Wong, Jyh Eiin; Poh, Bee Koon; Nik Shanita, Safii; Izham, Mohd Mohamad; Chan, Kai Quin; Tai, Meng De; Ng, Wei Wei; Ismail, Mohd Noor

2012-11-01

This study aimed to measure the basal metabolic rate (BMR) of elite athletes and develop a gender specific predictive equation to estimate their energy requirements. 92 men and 33 women (aged 18-31 years) from 15 sports, who had been training six hours daily for at least one year, were included in the study. Body composition was measured using the bioimpedance technique, and BMR by indirect calorimetry. The differences between measured and estimated BMR using various predictive equations were calculated. The novel equation derived from stepwise multiple regression was evaluated using Bland and Altman analysis. The predictive equations of Cunningham and the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization/United Nations University either over- or underestimated the measured BMR by up to ± 6%, while the equations of Ismail et al, developed from the local non-athletic population, underestimated the measured BMR by 14%. The novel predictive equation for the BMR of athletes was BMR (kcal/day) = 669 + 13 (weight in kg) + 192 (gender: 1 for men and 0 for women) (R2 0.548; standard error of estimates 163 kcal). Predicted BMRs of elite athletes by this equation were within 1.2% ± 9.5% of the measured BMR values. The novel predictive equation presented in this study can be used to calculate BMR for adult Malaysian elite athletes. Further studies may be required to validate its predictive capabilities for other sports, nationalities and age groups.

Higher Heart-Rate Variability Is Associated with Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activity and Increased Resistance to Temptation in Dietary Self-Control Challenges.

PubMed

Maier, Silvia U; Hare, Todd A

2017-01-11

Higher levels of self-control in decision making have been linked to better psychosocial and physical health. A similar link to health outcomes has been reported for heart-rate variability (HRV), a marker of physiological flexibility. Here, we sought to link these two, largely separate, research domains by testing the hypothesis that greater HRV would be associated with better dietary self-control in humans. Specifically, we examined whether total HRV at sedentary rest (measured as the SD of normal-to-normal intervals) can serve as a biomarker for the neurophysiological adaptability that putatively underlies self-controlled behavior. We found that HRV explained a significant portion of the individual variability in dietary self-control, with individuals having higher HRV being better able to downregulate their cravings in the face of taste temptations. Furthermore, HRV was associated with activity patterns in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), a key node in the brain's valuation and decision circuitry. Specifically, individuals with higher HRV showed both higher overall vmPFC blood-oxygen-level-dependent activity and attenuated taste representations when presented with a dietary self-control challenge. Last, the behavioral and neural associations with HRV were consistent across both our stress induction and control experimental conditions. The stability of this association across experimental conditions suggests that HRV may serve as both a readily obtainable and robust biomarker for self-control ability across environmental contexts. Self-control is associated with better health, but behavioral and psychometric self-control measures allow only indirect associations with health outcomes and may be distorted by reporting bias. We tested whether resting heart-rate variability (HRV), a physiological indicator of psychological and physical health, can predict individual differences in dietary self-control in humans. We found that higher HRV was associated with

Predicting Protein-protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-04-01

Protein-protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate.

Predicting Protein–protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-01-01

Protein–protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate. PMID:28418043

Predicting Protein-protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-04-18

Protein-protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate.

Cochlea-scaled spectral entropy predicts rate-invariant intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Kiefte, Michael; Alexander, Joshua M; Kluender, Keith R

2010-10-01

Some evidence, mostly drawn from experiments using only a single moderate rate of speech, suggests that low-frequency amplitude modulations may be particularly important for intelligibility. Here, two experiments investigated intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences across a wide range of simulated speaking rates, and two metrics were used to predict results. Sentence intelligibility was assessed when successive segments of fixed duration were temporally reversed (exp. 1), and when sentences were processed through four third-octave-band filters, the outputs of which were desynchronized (exp. 2). For both experiments, intelligibility decreased with increasing distortion. However, in exp. 2, intelligibility recovered modestly with longer desynchronization. Across conditions, performances measured as a function of proportion of utterance distorted converged to a common function. Estimates of intelligibility derived from modulation transfer functions predict a substantial proportion of the variance in listeners' responses in exp. 1, but fail to predict performance in exp. 2. By contrast, a metric of potential information, quantified as relative dissimilarity (change) between successive cochlear-scaled spectra, is introduced. This metric reliably predicts listeners' intelligibility across the full range of speaking rates in both experiments. Results support an information-theoretic approach to speech perception and the significance of spectral change rather than physical units of time.

State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

PubMed

Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

2009-01-01

Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR.

Phenotype at diagnosis predicts recurrence rates in Crohn's disease

PubMed Central

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Ambergen, T; Odes, S; Riis, L; Langholz, E; Politi, P; Qasim, A; Koutroubakis, I; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Freitas, J; van Zeijl, G; Hoie, O; Bernklev, T; Beltrami, M; Rodriguez, D; Stockbrügger, R W; Moum, B

2006-01-01

Background In Crohn's disease (CD), studies associating phenotype at diagnosis and subsequent disease activity are important for patient counselling and health care planning. Aims To calculate disease recurrence rates and to correlate these with phenotypic traits at diagnosis. Methods A prospectively assembled uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of CD patients was classified according to the Vienna classification for disease phenotype at diagnosis. Surgical and non‐surgical recurrence rates throughout a 10 year follow up period were calculated. Multivariate analysis was performed to classify risk factors present at diagnosis for recurrent disease. Results A total of 358 were classified for phenotype at diagnosis, of whom 262 (73.2%) had a first recurrence and 113 patients (31.6%) a first surgical recurrence during the first 10 years after diagnosis. Patients with upper gastrointestinal disease at diagnosis had an excess risk of recurrence (hazard ratio 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–2.10)) whereas age ⩾40 years at diagnosis was protective (hazard ratio 0.82 (95% CI 0.70–0.97)). Colonic disease was a protective characteristic for resective surgery (hazard ratio 0.38 (95% CI 0.21–0.69)). More frequent resective surgical recurrences were reported from Copenhagen (hazard ratio 3.23 (95% CI 1.32–7.89)). Conclusions A mild course of disease in terms of disease recurrence was observed in this European cohort. Phenotype at diagnosis had predictive value for disease recurrence with upper gastrointestinal disease being the most important positive predictor. A phenotypic North‐South gradient in CD may be present, illustrated by higher surgery risks in some of the Northern European centres. PMID:16361306

Higher Precision of Heart Rate Compared with VO2 to Predict Exercise Intensity in Endurance-Trained Runners.

PubMed

Reis, Victor M; den Tillaar, Roland Van; Marques, Mario C

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of oxygen uptake with heart rate regression during track running in highly-trained runners. Twelve national and international level male long-distance road runners (age 30.7 ± 5.5 yrs, height 1.71 ± 0.04 m and mass 61.2 ± 5.8 kg) with a personal best on the half marathon of 62 min 37 s ± 1 min 22 s participated in the study. Each participant performed, in an all-weather synthetic track five, six min bouts at constant velocity with each bout at an increased running velocity. The starting velocity was 3.33 m·s(-1) with a 0.56 m·s(-1) increase on each subsequent bout. VO2 and heart rate were measured during the runs and blood lactate was assessed immediately after each run. Mean peak VO2 and mean peak heart rate were, respectively, 76.2 ± 9.7 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) and 181 ± 13 beats·min(-1). The linearity of the regressions between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 were all very high (r > 0.99) with small standard errors of regression (i.e. Sy.x < 5% at the velocity associated with the 2 and 4 mmol·L(-1) lactate thresholds). The strong relationships between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 found in this study show that, in highly trained runners, it is possible to have heart rate as an accurate indicator of energy demand and of the running speed. Therefore, in this subject cohort it may be unnecessary to use VO2 to track changes in the subjects' running economy during training periods. Key pointsHeart rate is used in the control of exercise intensity in endurance sports.However, few studies have quantified the precision of its relationship with oxygen uptake in highly trained runners.We evaluated twelve elite half-marathon runners during track running at various intensities and established three regressions: oxygen uptake / heart rate; heart rate / running velocity and oxygen uptake / running velocity.The three regressions presented, respectively, imprecision of 4,2%, 2,75% and 4,5% at the

Self-rated stress is noncontributory to coronary artery disease in higher socioeconomic strata.

PubMed

Kermott, Cindy A; Cha, Stephen S; Hagen, Philip T; Behrenbeck, Thomas

2013-10-01

Stress and its attendant psychosocial and lifestyle variables have been associated with coronary artery disease (CAD), yet the contribution of socioeconomic status (SES) has not been addressed. The aim of this study is to determine if stress assessment is associated with CAD independent of SES, and is incremental to the Framingham Score. The study group consisted of 325 executive patients undergoing comprehensive health assessment. Stress was assessed utilizing the validated "Self-Rated Stress" (SRS) instrument. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) served to assess the degree of atherosclerosis, a CAD equivalent and risk assessment tool. The relationship between SRS and CAC was assessed, with adjustment by potential confounders. CAC was modeled by a variety of cut points (>0, ≥5, ≥100, ≥200) for the test of trend across stress levels per Mantel-Haenszel chi-square (1 df) with nonsignificant P values of 0.9960, 0.5242, 0.1692, 0.3233, respectively. A logistic regression model with SRS as a categorically ranked and continuous variable to predict binary outcome of calcification yielded P values of 0.2366 and 0.9644; this relationship, further adjusted by age, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercise, and education, yielded no statistically significant association. No improvement of fit was observed for the established Framingham Score to CAC relation utilizing SRS. The study concluded that SRS did not play a role in early CAD when focusing on a population in higher socioeconomic strata, and SRS did not add predictive value beyond patient age or calculated Framingham risk. Future studies should focus on additional validated instruments of stress to differentiate between subtypes of stress for varying SES strata.

An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dash, Rajashree

2017-11-01

Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

PubMed

Papas, Klearchos K; Bellin, Melena D; Sutherland, David E R; Suszynski, Thomas M; Kitzmann, Jennifer P; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Gruessner, Angelika C; Mueller, Kathryn R; Beilman, Gregory J; Balamurugan, Appakalai N; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C; Wilhelm, Josh J; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C; Hering, Bernhard J

2015-01-01

Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

PubMed

Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

2017-09-01

Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

PubMed Central

Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

2001-01-01

Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting. PMID:11747566

Attempting to Predict Withdrawal from Higher Education Using Demographic, Psychological and Educational Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlton, John P.; Barrow, Corinne; Hornby-Atkinson, Pat

2006-01-01

Demographic, psychological and secondary level examination measures were obtained at the start of undergraduate courses in an attempt to predict first-year higher education (HE) withdrawal. As usual, withdrawal was greatest for males. Overall, intrinsic motivation and independent study expectations were better predictors of withdrawal than…

Abstract conceptual feature ratings predict gaze within written word arrays: evidence from a Visual Wor(l)d paradigm

PubMed Central

Primativo, Silvia; Reilly, Jamie; Crutch, Sebastian J

2016-01-01

The Abstract Conceptual Feature (ACF) framework predicts that word meaning is represented within a high-dimensional semantic space bounded by weighted contributions of perceptual, affective, and encyclopedic information. The ACF, like latent semantic analysis, is amenable to distance metrics between any two words. We applied predictions of the ACF framework to abstract words using eye tracking via an adaptation of the classical ‘visual word paradigm’. Healthy adults (N=20) selected the lexical item most related to a probe word in a 4-item written word array comprising the target and three distractors. The relation between the probe and each of the four words was determined using the semantic distance metrics derived from ACF ratings. Eye-movement data indicated that the word that was most semantically related to the probe received more and longer fixations relative to distractors. Importantly, in sets where participants did not provide an overt behavioral response, the fixation rates were none the less significantly higher for targets than distractors, closely resembling trials where an expected response was given. Furthermore, ACF ratings which are based on individual words predicted eye fixation metrics of probe-target similarity at least as well as latent semantic analysis ratings which are based on word co-occurrence. The results provide further validation of Euclidean distance metrics derived from ACF ratings as a measure of one facet of the semantic relatedness of abstract words and suggest that they represent a reasonable approximation of the organization of abstract conceptual space. The data are also compatible with the broad notion that multiple sources of information (not restricted to sensorimotor and emotion information) shape the organization of abstract concepts. Whilst the adapted ‘visual word paradigm’ is potentially a more metacognitive task than the classical visual world paradigm, we argue that it offers potential utility for studying

The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

2016-01-01

Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

PubMed Central

Yun, Sung Pil; Seo, Hyung-Il; Kim, Suk; Kim, Dong Uk; Baek, Dong Hoon

2017-01-01

Abstract Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM (P = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD. PMID:28353594

Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

PubMed

Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

2016-01-01

Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Model predictions of higher-order normal alkane ignition from dilute shock-tube experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotavera, B.; Petersen, E. L.

2013-07-01

Shock-induced oxidation of two higher-order linear alkanes was measured using a heated shock tube facility. Experimental overlap in stoichiometric ignition delay times obtained under dilute (99 % Ar) conditions near atmospheric pressure was observed in the temperature-dependent ignition trends of n-nonane ( n-C9H20) and n-undecane ( n-C11H24). Despite the overlap, model predictions of ignition using two different detailed chemical kinetics mechanisms show discrepancies relative to both the measured data as well as to one another. The present study therefore focuses on the differences observed in the modeled, high-temperature ignition delay times of higher-order n-alkanes, which are generally regarded to have identical ignition behavior for carbon numbers above C7. Comparisons are drawn using experimental data from the present study and from recent work by the authors relative to two existing chemical kinetics mechanisms. Time histories from the shock-tube OH* measurements are also compared to the model predictions; a double-peaked structure observed in the data shows that the time response of the detector electronics is crucial for properly capturing the first, incipient peak near time zero. Calculations using the two mechanisms were carried out at the dilution level employed in the shock-tube experiments for lean {({φ} = 0.5)}, stoichiometric, and rich {({φ} = 2.0)} equivalence ratios, 1230-1620 K, and for both 1.5 and 10 atm. In general, the models show differing trends relative to both measured data and to one another, indicating that agreement among chemical kinetics models for higher-order n-alkanes is not consistent. For example, under certain conditions, one mechanism predicts the ignition delay times to be virtually identical between the n-nonane and n-undecane fuels (in fact, also for all alkanes between at least C8 and C12), which is in agreement with the experiment, while the other mechanism predicts the larger fuels to ignite progressively more slowly.

Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

2010-12-01

The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

Older men with higher self-rated socioeconomic status have shorter telomeres

PubMed Central

Woo, Jean; Suen, Eddie W. C.; Leung, Jason C. S.; Tang, Nelson L. S.; Ebrahim, Shah

2009-01-01

Background: previous studies examining the relationship between socioeconomic status and telomere length showed conflicting results, one study finding shorter telomere length in subjects with lower socioeconomic status and one showing no relationship. Design: cross-sectional study. Setting: community-living elderly Chinese in Hong Kong. Objective: this study examines the relationship between self-rated social economic status and telomere length in Hong Kong Chinese men and women aged 65 years and over living in the community. Subjects and method: information was collected from 958 men and 978 women regarding possible confounding factors such as the presence of chronic diseases, smoking, physical activity level, dietary intake and body mass index. Telomere length was measured by quantitative PCR. Result: in men only, after adjustment for age and other confounding factors, a higher ranking in community standing was associated with shorter telomere length. Conclusion: men with higher self-rated socioeconomic status have shorter telomeres, possibly mediated through psychosocial rather than lifestyle factors or the presence of chronic disease. There may be cultural ethnic and age-related differences in social determinants of health. PMID:19556325

Elevated cardiac troponin T is associated with higher mortality and amputation rates in patients with peripheral arterial disease.

PubMed

Linnemann, Birgit; Sutter, Thilo; Herrmann, Eva; Sixt, Sebastian; Rastan, Aljoscha; Schwarzwaelder, Uwe; Noory, Elias; Buergelin, Karlheinz; Beschorner, Ulrich; Zeller, Thomas

2014-04-22

The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether elevated cardiac troponin T (cTnT) was independently associated with an increased all-cause mortality or risk of cardiovascular events and amputation among patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). PAD patients often have impaired renal function, and the blood concentration of cardiac troponin often increases with declining glomerular filtration rate. The cohort consisted of 1,041 consecutive PAD patients (653 males, 388 females, age 70.7 ± 10.8 years, Rutherford stages 2 to 5) undergoing endovascular peripheral revascularization. At baseline, measurable cTnT levels (≥0.01 ng/ml) were detected in 21.3% of individuals. Compared with patients who had undetectable cTnT levels, those with cTnT levels ≥0.01 ng/ml had higher rates for mortality (31.7% vs. 3.9%, respectively; p < 0.001), myocardial infarction (4.1% vs. 1.1%, respectively; p = 0.003), and amputation (10.1% vs. 2.4%, respectively; p < 0.001) during a 1-year follow-up. In adjusted Cox regression models, cTnT levels ≥0.01 ng/ml were associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 8.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.77 to 17.6; p < 0.001) and amputation rates (HR: 3.71; 95% CI: 1.33 to 10.3; p = 0.012). cTnT is frequently elevated in PAD patients and is associated with higher event rates in terms of total mortality and amputation. Even small cTnT elevations predict a markedly increased risk that is independent of an impaired renal function. (Troponin T as Risk Stratification Tool in Patients With Peripheral Arterial Occlusive Disease; NCT01087385). Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey.

PubMed

Can Yilmaz, Ali; Aci, Cigdem; Aydin, Kadir

2016-08-17

Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage-only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey. In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle-vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R). It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The

MEDEX 2015: Heart Rate Variability Predicts Development of Acute Mountain Sickness.

PubMed

Sutherland, Angus; Freer, Joseph; Evans, Laura; Dolci, Alberto; Crotti, Matteo; Macdonald, Jamie Hugo

2017-09-01

Sutherland, Angus, Joseph Freer, Laura Evans, Alberto Dolci, Matteo Crotti, and Jamie Hugo Macdonald. MEDEX 2015: Heart rate variability predicts development of acute mountain sickness. High Alt Med Biol. 18: 199-208, 2017. Acute mountain sickness (AMS) develops when the body fails to acclimatize to atmospheric changes at altitude. Preascent prediction of susceptibility to AMS would be a useful tool to prevent subsequent harm. Changes to peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) on hypoxic exposure have previously been shown to be of poor predictive value. Heart rate variability (HRV) has shown promise in the early prediction of AMS, but its use pre-expedition has not previously been investigated. We aimed to determine whether pre- and intraexpedition HRV assessment could predict susceptibility to AMS at high altitude with better diagnostic accuracy than SpO 2 . Forty-four healthy volunteers undertook an expedition in the Nepali Himalaya to >5000 m. SpO 2 and HRV parameters were recorded at rest in normoxia and in a normobaric hypoxic chamber before the expedition. On the expedition HRV parameters and SpO 2 were collected again at 3841 m. A daily Lake Louise Score was obtained to assess AMS symptomology. Low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio in normoxia (cutpoint ≤2.28 a.u.) and LF following 15 minutes of exposure to normobaric hypoxia had moderate (area under the curve ≥0.8) diagnostic accuracy. LF/HF ratio in normoxia had the highest sensitivity (85%) and specificity (88%) for predicting AMS on subsequent ascent to altitude. In contrast, pre-expedition SpO 2 measurements had poor (area under the curve <0.7) diagnostic accuracy and inferior sensitivity and specificity. Pre-ascent measurement of HRV in normoxia was found to be of better diagnostic accuracy for AMS prediction than all measures of HRV in hypoxia, and better than peripheral oxygen saturation monitoring.

Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates.

PubMed

Arbon, P; Bridgewater, F H; Smith, C

2001-01-01

This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. Several

Prediction of peer-rated adult hostility from autonomy struggles in adolescent–family interactions

PubMed Central

ALLEN, JOSEPH P.; HAUSER, STUART T.; O’CONNOR, THOMAS G.; BELL, KATHY L.

2006-01-01

Observed parent–adolescent autonomy struggles were assessed as potential predictors of the development of peer-rated hostility over a decade later in young adulthood in both normal and previously psychiatrically hospitalized groups of adolescents. Longitudinal, multireporter data were obtained by coding family interactions involving 83 adolescents and their parents at age 16 years and then obtaining ratings by close friends of adolescents’ hostility at age 25 years. Fathers’ behavior undermining adolescents’ autonomy in interactions at age 16 years were predictive of adolescents-as-young-adults’ hostility, as rated by close friends at age 25 years. These predictions contributed additional variance to understanding young adult hostility even after accounting for concurrent levels of adolescent hostility at age 16 years and paternal hostility at this age, each of which also significantly contributed to predicting future hostility. Results are discussed as highlighting a pathway by which difficulties attaining autonomy in adolescence may presage the development of long-term difficulties in social functioning. PMID:11893089

Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

Crystal Thermoelasticity at Extreme Loading Rates and Pressures: Analysis of Higher-Order Energy Potentials

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

ARL-RP-0526 ● JULY 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Crystal Thermoelasticity at Extreme Loading Rates and Pressures : Analysis of...ARL-RP-0526 ● JULY 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Crystal Thermoelasticity at Extreme Loading Rates and Pressures : Analysis of...2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Crystal Thermoelasticity at Extreme Loading Rates and Pressures : Analysis of Higher-Order Energy Potentials 5a. CONTRACT

Bioinformatics analysis of the predicted polyprenol reductase genes in higher plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basyuni, M.; Wati, R.

2018-03-01

The present study evaluates the bioinformatics methods to analyze twenty-four predicted polyprenol reductase genes from higher plants on GenBank as well as predicted the structure, composition, similarity, subcellular localization, and phylogenetic. The physicochemical properties of plant polyprenol showed diversity among the observed genes. The percentage of the secondary structure of plant polyprenol genes followed the ratio order of α helix > random coil > extended chain structure. The values of chloroplast but not signal peptide were too low, indicated that few chloroplast transit peptide in plant polyprenol reductase genes. The possibility of the potential transit peptide showed variation among the plant polyprenol reductase, suggested the importance of understanding the variety of peptide components of plant polyprenol genes. To clarify this finding, a phylogenetic tree was drawn. The phylogenetic tree shows several branches in the tree, suggested that plant polyprenol reductase genes grouped into divergent clusters in the tree.

Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niu, Nina N.; Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; Niemierko, Andrzej

Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change wasmore » classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly

Predictive power of the DASA-IV: Variations in rating method and timescales.

PubMed

Nqwaku, Mphindisi; Draycott, Simon; Aldridge-Waddon, Luke; Bush, Emma-Louise; Tsirimokou, Alexandra; Jones, Dominic; Puzzo, Ignazio

2018-05-10

This project evaluated the predictive validity of the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression - Inpatient Version (DASA-IV) in a high-secure psychiatric hospital in the UK over 24 hours and over a single nursing shift. DASA-IV scores from three sequential nursing shifts over a 24-hour period were compared with the mean (average of three scores across the 24-hour period) and peak (highest of the three scores across the 24-hour period) scores across these shifts. In addition, scores from a single nursing shift were used to predict aggressive incidents over each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV was completed by nursing staff during handover meetings, rating 43 male psychiatric inpatients over a period of 6 months. Data were compared to incident reports recorded over the same period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and generalized estimating equations assessed the predictive ability of various DASA-IV scores over 24-hour and single-shift timescales. Scores from the DASA-IV based on a single shift had moderate predictive ability for aggressive incidents occurring the next calendar day, whereas scores based on all three shifts had excellent predictive ability. DASA-IV scores from a single shift showed moderate predictive ability for each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV has excellent predictive ability for aggressive incidents within a secure setting when data are summarized over a 24-hour period, as opposed to when a single rating is taken. In addition, it has moderate value for predicting incidents over even shorter timescales. © 2018 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Predicting changes in volcanic activity through modelling magma ascent rate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Mark; Neuberg, Jurgen

2013-04-01

It is a simple fact that changes in volcanic activity happen and in retrospect they are easy to spot, the dissimilar eruption dynamics between an effusive and explosive event are not hard to miss. However to be able to predict such changes is a much more complicated process. To cause altering styles of activity we know that some part or combination of parts within the system must vary with time, as if there is no physical change within the system, why would the change in eruptive activity occur? What is unknown is which parts or how big a change is needed. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models that aim to answer these questions by assessing the influence of individual model parameters such as the dissolved water content or magma temperature. By altering these variables in a systematic manner we measure the effect of the changes by observing the modelled ascent rate. We use the ascent rate as we believe it is a very important indicator that can control the style of eruptive activity. In particular, we found that the sensitivity of the ascent rate to small changes in model parameters surprising. Linking these changes to observable monitoring data in a way that these data could be used as a predictive tool is the ultimate goal of this work. We will show that changes in ascent rate can be estimated by a particular type of seismicity. Low frequency seismicity, thought to be caused by the brittle failure of melt is often linked with the movement of magma within a conduit. We show that acceleration in the rate of low frequency seismicity can correspond to an increase in the rate of magma movement and be used as an indicator for potential changes in eruptive activity.

Executive functioning independently predicts self-rated health and improvement in self-rated health over time among community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

McHugh, Joanna Edel; Lawlor, Brian A

2016-01-01

Self-rated health, as distinct from objective measures of health, is a clinically informative metric among older adults. The purpose of our study was to examine the cognitive and psychosocial factors associated with self-rated health. 624 participants over the age of 60 were assessed at baseline, and of these, 510 were contacted for a follow-up two years later. Measures of executive function and self-rated health were assessed at baseline, and self-rated health was assessed at follow-up. We employed multiple linear regression analyses to investigate the relationship between executive functioning and self-rated health, while controlling for demographic, psychosocial and biological variables. Controlling for other relevant variables, executive functioning independently and solely predicted self-rated health, both at a cross-sectional level, and also over time. Loneliness was also found to cross-sectionally predict self-rated health, although this relationship was not present at a longitudinal level. Older adults' self-rated health may be related to their executive functioning and to their loneliness. Self-rated health appeared to improve over time, and the extent of this improvement was also related to executive functioning at baseline. Self-rated health may be a judgement made of one's functioning, especially executive functioning, which changes with age and therefore may be particularly salient in the reflections of older adults.

Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

1973-01-01

A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.

An empirical model for prediction of household solid waste generation rate - A case study of Dhanbad, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Atul; Samadder, S R

2017-10-01

Accurate prediction of the quantity of household solid waste generation is very much essential for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW). In actual practice, modelling methods are often found useful for precise prediction of MSW generation rate. In this study, two models have been proposed that established the relationships between the household solid waste generation rate and the socioeconomic parameters, such as household size, total family income, education, occupation and fuel used in the kitchen. Multiple linear regression technique was applied to develop the two models, one for the prediction of biodegradable MSW generation rate and the other for non-biodegradable MSW generation rate for individual households of the city Dhanbad, India. The results of the two models showed that the coefficient of determinations (R 2 ) were 0.782 for biodegradable waste generation rate and 0.676 for non-biodegradable waste generation rate using the selected independent variables. The accuracy tests of the developed models showed convincing results, as the predicted values were very close to the observed values. Validation of the developed models with a new set of data indicated a good fit for actual prediction purpose with predicted R 2 values of 0.76 and 0.64 for biodegradable and non-biodegradable MSW generation rate respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

PubMed

Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

2015-01-01

Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

Predicting the Rate of Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer Disease: Data From the ICTUS Study.

PubMed

Canevelli, Marco; Kelaiditi, Eirini; Del Campo, Natalia; Bruno, Giuseppe; Vellas, Bruno; Cesari, Matteo

2016-01-01

Different rates of cognitive progression have been observed among Alzheimer disease (AD) patients. The present study aimed at evaluating whether the rate of cognitive worsening in AD may be predicted by widely available and easy-to-assess factors. Mild to moderate AD patients were recruited in the ICTUS study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to measure the association between several sociodemographic and clinical variables and 3 different rates of cognitive decline defined by modifications (after 1 year of follow-up) of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score: (1) "slow" progression, as indicated by a decrease in the MMSE score ≤1 point; (2) "intermediate" progression, decrease in the MMSE score between 2 and 5 points; and (3) "rapid" progression, decrease in the MMSE score ≥6 points. A total of 1005 patients were considered for the present analyses. Overall, most of the study participants (52%) exhibited a slow cognitive course. Higher ADAS-Cog scores at baseline were significantly associated with both "intermediate" and "rapid" decline. Conversely, increasing age was negatively associated with "rapid" cognitive worsening. A slow progression of cognitive decline is common among AD patients. The influence of age and baseline cognitive impairment should always be carefully considered when designing AD trials and defining study populations.

Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

2017-01-01

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

Kinetic rate constant prediction supports the conformational selection mechanism of protein binding.

PubMed

Moal, Iain H; Bates, Paul A

2012-01-01

The prediction of protein-protein kinetic rate constants provides a fundamental test of our understanding of molecular recognition, and will play an important role in the modeling of complex biological systems. In this paper, a feature selection and regression algorithm is applied to mine a large set of molecular descriptors and construct simple models for association and dissociation rate constants using empirical data. Using separate test data for validation, the predicted rate constants can be combined to calculate binding affinity with accuracy matching that of state of the art empirical free energy functions. The models show that the rate of association is linearly related to the proportion of unbound proteins in the bound conformational ensemble relative to the unbound conformational ensemble, indicating that the binding partners must adopt a geometry near to that of the bound prior to binding. Mirroring the conformational selection and population shift mechanism of protein binding, the models provide a strong separate line of evidence for the preponderance of this mechanism in protein-protein binding, complementing structural and theoretical studies.

Lower vitamin D levels are associated with higher systemic lupus erythematosus activity, but not predictive of disease flare-up

PubMed Central

Schoindre, Yoland; Jallouli, Moez; Tanguy, Marie-Laure; Ghillani, Pascale; Galicier, Lionel; Aumaître, Olivier; Francès, Camille; Le Guern, Véronique; Lioté, Frédéric; Smail, Amar; Limal, Nicolas; Perard, Laurent; Desmurs-Clavel, Hélène; Thi Huong, Du Le; Asli, Bouchra; Kahn, Jean-Emmanuel; Sailler, Laurent; Ackermann, Félix; Papo, Thomas; Sacré, Karim; Fain, Olivier; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Cacoub, Patrice; Leroux, Gaëlle; Cohen-Bittan, Judith; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Lechat, Philippe; Musset, Lucile; Piette, Jean-Charles; Amoura, Zahir; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie

2014-01-01

Objectives Growing evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of autoimmune diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Recent studies have found an association between lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and higher SLE activity. We studied the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, and we assessed for the first time the role of vitamin D in predicting SLE flare-ups. Methods Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured in 170 patients with SLE who were prospectively followed up for 6 months (Plaquenil LUpus Systemic study, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00413361). Results The mean SLEDAI score was 2.03±2.43 and 12.3% patients had active disease (SLEDAI ≥6). The mean 25(OH)D level was 20.6±9.8 ng/mL. Deficiency (25(OH)D <10 ng/mL) was observed in 27 (15.9%), insufficiency (10≤25(OH)D<30) in 112 (65.9%) and optimal vitamin D status (25(OH)D≥30) in 31 (18.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female gender (p=0.018), absence of defined antiphospholipid syndrome (p=0.002) and higher creatinine clearance (p=0.004) were predictive of lower 25(OH)D levels. In multivariate analysis, lower 25(OH)D levels were associated with high SLE activity (p=0.02). Relapse-free survival rate was not statistically different according to the vitamin D status during the 6-month follow-up (p=0.22). Conclusions We found a low vitamin D status in the majority of patients with SLE, and a modest association between lower 25(OH)D levels and high disease activity. There was no association between baseline 25(OH)D levels and relapse-free survival rate. PMID:25379192

Lower vitamin D levels are associated with higher systemic lupus erythematosus activity, but not predictive of disease flare-up.

PubMed

Schoindre, Yoland; Jallouli, Moez; Tanguy, Marie-Laure; Ghillani, Pascale; Galicier, Lionel; Aumaître, Olivier; Francès, Camille; Le Guern, Véronique; Lioté, Frédéric; Smail, Amar; Limal, Nicolas; Perard, Laurent; Desmurs-Clavel, Hélène; Le Thi Huong, Du; Asli, Bouchra; Kahn, Jean-Emmanuel; Sailler, Laurent; Ackermann, Félix; Papo, Thomas; Sacré, Karim; Fain, Olivier; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Cacoub, Patrice; Leroux, Gaëlle; Cohen-Bittan, Judith; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Lechat, Philippe; Musset, Lucile; Piette, Jean-Charles; Amoura, Zahir; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie

2014-01-01

Growing evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of autoimmune diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Recent studies have found an association between lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and higher SLE activity. We studied the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, and we assessed for the first time the role of vitamin D in predicting SLE flare-ups. Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured in 170 patients with SLE who were prospectively followed up for 6 months (Plaquenil LUpus Systemic study, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00413361). The mean SLEDAI score was 2.03±2.43 and 12.3% patients had active disease (SLEDAI ≥6). The mean 25(OH)D level was 20.6±9.8 ng/mL. Deficiency (25(OH)D <10 ng/mL) was observed in 27 (15.9%), insufficiency (10≤25(OH)D<30) in 112 (65.9%) and optimal vitamin D status (25(OH)D≥30) in 31 (18.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female gender (p=0.018), absence of defined antiphospholipid syndrome (p=0.002) and higher creatinine clearance (p=0.004) were predictive of lower 25(OH)D levels. In multivariate analysis, lower 25(OH)D levels were associated with high SLE activity (p=0.02). Relapse-free survival rate was not statistically different according to the vitamin D status during the 6-month follow-up (p=0.22). We found a low vitamin D status in the majority of patients with SLE, and a modest association between lower 25(OH)D levels and high disease activity. There was no association between baseline 25(OH)D levels and relapse-free survival rate.

Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poovathingal, Savio

An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of

Estimating 1 min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulson, Kevin S.

2017-01-01

Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1 min rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen-Poiares Baptista method where 1 min rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of 6 h accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP, and these are linked to distributions of fine-scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK, and the extension to other regions is discussed.

Sudden substrate dilution induces a higher rate of citric acid production by Aspergillus niger.

PubMed Central

Legisa, M; Gradisnik-Grapulin, M

1995-01-01

On the basis of the present knowledge of Aspergillus niger metabolism during citric acid fermentation, an idea on how to improve the process was formed. Initially, a higher sucrose concentration was used for the germination of spores, which caused a higher intracellular level of the osmoregulator, glycerol, to be present. When citric acid started to be excreted into the medium, the substrate was suddenly diluted. Optimization of this procedure resulted in a nearly tripled volumetric rate (grams per liter per hour) of acid production, while the overall fermentation time was halved compared with the usual batch process. Yet, a characteristic delay was observed at the start of the acid excretion after the dilution. Hypo-osmotic shock caused a prominent elevation of intracellular cyclic AMP levels. Simultaneously, the specific activity of 6-phosphofructo-1-kinase increased significantly, probably due to phosphorylation of the protein molecule by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase. Specific 6-phosphofructo-1-kinase activity was much higher in the treated than in the normally growing mycelium. The metabolic flow through glycolysis was expected to be higher, which should contribute to a higher volumetric rate of acid production. PMID:7618885

Sudden substrate dilution induces a higher rate of citric acid production by Aspergillus niger.

PubMed

Legisa, M; Gradisnik-Grapulin, M

1995-07-01

On the basis of the present knowledge of Aspergillus niger metabolism during citric acid fermentation, an idea on how to improve the process was formed. Initially, a higher sucrose concentration was used for the germination of spores, which caused a higher intracellular level of the osmoregulator, glycerol, to be present. When citric acid started to be excreted into the medium, the substrate was suddenly diluted. Optimization of this procedure resulted in a nearly tripled volumetric rate (grams per liter per hour) of acid production, while the overall fermentation time was halved compared with the usual batch process. Yet, a characteristic delay was observed at the start of the acid excretion after the dilution. Hypo-osmotic shock caused a prominent elevation of intracellular cyclic AMP levels. Simultaneously, the specific activity of 6-phosphofructo-1-kinase increased significantly, probably due to phosphorylation of the protein molecule by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase. Specific 6-phosphofructo-1-kinase activity was much higher in the treated than in the normally growing mycelium. The metabolic flow through glycolysis was expected to be higher, which should contribute to a higher volumetric rate of acid production.

[Establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai].

PubMed

Li, Jian; Wu, Huan-Yu; Li, Yan-Ting; Jin, Hui-Ming; Gu, Bao-Ke; Yuan, Zheng-An

2010-01-01

To explore the feasibility of establishing and applying of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the incidence rate of dysentery in Shanghai, so as to provide the theoretical basis for prevention and control of dysentery. ARIMA model was established based on the monthly incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai from 1990 to 2007. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and conclusion, and the model goodness-of-fit was determined through Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the incidence rate of dysentery of Shanghai in 2008 and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted incidence rate and actual one. The incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009. The model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 2)(12) had a good fitness to the incidence rate with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1 = 0.443) during the past time series, moving average coefficient (MA1 = 0.806) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 = 0.543, SMA2 = 0.321) being statistically significant (P < 0.01). AIC and SBC were 2.878 and 16.131 respectively and predicting error was white noise. The mathematic function was (1-0.443B) (1-B) (1-B(12))Z(t) = (1-0.806B) (1-0.543B(12)) (1-0.321B(2) x 12) micro(t). The predicted incidence rate in 2008 was consistent with the actual one, with the relative error of 6.78%. The predicted incidence rate of dysentery in 2010 based on the incidence rate from January 1990 to June 2009 would be 9.390 per 100 thousand. ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of incidence rate of dysentery and to forecast the future incidence rate in Shanghai. It is a predicted model of high precision for short-time forecast.

Do Geographic Regions with Higher Suicide Rates Also Have Higher Rates of Nonfatal Intentional Self-Harm?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claassen, Cynthia A.; Carmody, Thomas; Bossarte, Robert; Trivedi, Madhukar H.; Elliott, Stephen; Currier, Glenn W.

2008-01-01

Fatal and nonfatal intentional self-harm events in eight U.S. states were compared using emergency department, hospital, and vital statistics data. Nonfatal event rates increased by an estimated 24.20% over 6 years. Case fatality ratios varied widely, but two northeastern states' total event rates (fatal plus nonfatal) were very high (New…

Morbidity predicting factors of penetrating colon injuries.

PubMed

Mickevicius, A; Valeikaite, G; Tamelis, A; Saladzinskas, Z; Svagzdys, S; Pavalkis, D

2010-01-01

To analyze patients suffering from penetrating colon injuries management, clinical outcomes and factors, which predict higher morbidity and complications rate. this was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from patients with injured colon from 1995 to 2008. Age, time till operation, systolic blood pressure, part of injured colon, fecal contamination, PATI were registered. Monovariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine higher morbidity predictive factors. 61 patients had penetrating colon injuries. Major fecal contamination of the peritoneal cavity and systolic blood pressure lower than 90 mmHg are independent factors determining the fecal diversion operation. Primary repair group analysis establish that major fecal contamination and systolic blood pressure lower than 90 mmHg OR = 4.2 and 0.96 were significant risk factors, which have contributed to the development of postoperative complications. And systolic blood pressure lower than 90 mmHg and PATI 20 predict OR = 0.05 and 2.61 higher morbidity. Fecal contamination of the peritoneal cavity and hypotension were determined to be crucial in choice of performing fecal diversion or primary repair. But the same criteria and PATI predict higher rate of postoperative complications and higher morbidity.

Cell membrane temperature rate sensitivity predicted from the Nernst equation.

PubMed

Barnes, F S

1984-01-01

A hyperpolarized current is predicted from the Nernst equation for conditions of positive temperature derivatives with respect to time. This ion current, coupled with changes in membrane channel conductivities, is expected to contribute to a transient potential shift across the cell membrane for silent cells and to a change in firing rate for pacemaker cells.

The Pandolf equation under-predicts the metabolic rate of contemporary military load carriage.

PubMed

Drain, Jace R; Aisbett, Brad; Lewis, Michael; Billing, Daniel C

2017-11-01

This investigation assessed the accuracy of error of the Pandolf load carriage energy expenditure equation when simulating contemporary military conditions (load distribution, external load and walking speed). Within-participant design. Sixteen male participants completed 10 trials comprised of five walking speeds (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5 and 6.5km·h -1 ) and two external loads (22.7 and 38.4kg). The Pandolf equation demonstrated poor predictive precision, with a mean bias of 124.9W and -48.7 to 298.5W 95% limits of agreement. Furthermore, the Pandolf equation systematically under-predicted metabolic rate (p<0.05) across the 10 speed-load combinations. Predicted metabolic rate error ranged from 12-33% across all conditions with the 'moderate' walking speeds (i.e. 4.5-5.5km·h -1 ) yielding less prediction error (12-17%) when compared to the slower and faster walking speeds (21-33%). Factors such as mechanical efficiency and load distribution contribute to the impaired predictive accuracy. The authors suggest the Pandolf equation should be applied to military load carriage with caution. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moosai, Susan

2010-01-01

In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

2014-01-01

In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

Characterization and prediction of rate-dependent flexibility in lumbar spine biomechanics at room and body temperature.

PubMed

Stolworthy, Dean K; Zirbel, Shannon A; Howell, Larry L; Samuels, Marina; Bowden, Anton E

2014-05-01

The soft tissues of the spine exhibit sensitivity to strain-rate and temperature, yet current knowledge of spine biomechanics is derived from cadaveric testing conducted at room temperature at very slow, quasi-static rates. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the change in segmental flexibility of cadaveric lumbar spine segments with respect to multiple loading rates within the range of physiologic motion by using specimens at body or room temperature. The secondary objective was to develop a predictive model of spine flexibility across the voluntary range of loading rates. This in vitro study examines rate- and temperature-dependent viscoelasticity of the human lumbar cadaveric spine. Repeated flexibility tests were performed on 21 lumbar function spinal units (FSUs) in flexion-extension with the use of 11 distinct voluntary loading rates at body or room temperature. Furthermore, six lumbar FSUs were loaded in axial rotation, flexion-extension, and lateral bending at both body and room temperature via a stepwise, quasi-static loading protocol. All FSUs were also loaded using a control loading test with a continuous-speed loading-rate of 1-deg/sec. The viscoelastic torque-rotation response for each spinal segment was recorded. A predictive model was developed to accurately estimate spine segment flexibility at any voluntary loading rate based on measured flexibility at a single loading rate. Stepwise loading exhibited the greatest segmental range of motion (ROM) in all loading directions. As loading rate increased, segmental ROM decreased, whereas segmental stiffness and hysteresis both increased; however, the neutral zone remained constant. Continuous-speed tests showed that segmental stiffness and hysteresis are dependent variables to ROM at voluntary loading rates in flexion-extension. To predict the torque-rotation response at different loading rates, the model requires knowledge of the segmental flexibility at a single rate and specified

Replacement of oxidizable residues predicted by QM-MM simulation of a fungal laccase generates variants with higher operational stability.

PubMed

Avelar, Mayra; Pastor, Nina; Ramirez-Ramirez, Joaquin; Ayala, Marcela

2018-01-01

In this work, we sought to obtain a more stable laccase with higher operational stability for the oxidation of phenols. During this reaction, phenoxy free radicals are produced that gradually inactivate the enzyme; the inactivation rate depends on the phenol chemical nature. In order to predict residues prone to oxidize within the active site, we simulated activated states of the catalytic region of a fungal laccase using QM-MM tools (Quantum Mechanics-Molecular Mechanics). After simulating the electron distribution in both the basal and activated state (plus or minus one electron) of several conformations of Coriolopsis gallica laccase, residues that could be susceptible to oxidation were identified, according to the values of spin density obtained from calculations. Three targets were selected (F357, F413, and F475) to be replaced by site-directed mutagenesis with less oxidizable residues such as leucine, alanine, and isoleucine. The resulting variants displayed a higher specific activity (from 1.5-to 4-fold) than the parental enzyme. Catalyst depletion during phenol oxidation was 2.5-fold lower for the variants, reflecting a higher operational stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the rate of the rise of an air bubble in nanofluids in a vertical tube.

PubMed

Cho, Heon Ki; Nikolov, Alex D; Wasan, Darsh T

2018-04-19

Our recent experiments have demonstrated that when a bubble rises through a nanofluid (a liquid containing dispersed nanoparticles) in a vertical tube, a nanofluidic film with several particle layers is formed between the gas bubble and the glass tube wall, which significantly changes the bubble velocity due to the nanoparticle layering phenomenon in the film. We calculated the structural nanofilm viscosity as a function of the number of particle layers confined in it and found that the film viscosity increases rather steeply when the film contains only one or two particle layers. The nanofilm viscosity was found to be several times higher than the bulk viscosity of the fluid. Consequently, the Bretherton equation cannot accurately predict the rate of the rise of a slow-moving long bubble in a vertical tube in a nanofluid because it is valid only for very thick films and uses the bulk viscosity of the fluid. However, in this brief note, we demonstrate that the Bretherton equation can indeed be used for predicting the rate of the rise of a long single bubble through a vertical tube filled with a nanofluid by simply replacing the bulk viscosity with the proper structural nanofilm viscosity of the fluid. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An Exploration of Higher Education Graduation Rates: A Case Study of Women in Jordan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allaf, Carine

2010-01-01

Jordan is viewed as a country of social, political, and economic advancement. It currently leads the region in literacy rates and is well on its way to achieving gender equity. Despite Jordan's reputation as one of the most 'advanced' countries in the region, there have been conflicted reports on higher education completion rates of women. Some…

Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett Q.; Dmitrieva, Julia O.; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A.; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B.

2015-01-01

Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, we propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed – and thus pursued – in relatively socially-engaged ways. In four geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (U.S., Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants’ well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially-engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the U.S., did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially-engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

Preliminary data suggest rates of male military sexual trauma may be higher than previously reported.

PubMed

Sheppard, Sean C; Hickling, Edward J; Earleywine, Mitch; Hoyt, Tim; Russo, Amanda R; Donati, Matthew R; Kip, Kevin E

2015-11-01

Stigma associated with disclosing military sexual trauma (MST) makes estimating an accurate base rate difficult. Anonymous assessment may help alleviate stigma. Although anonymous research has found higher rates of male MST, no study has evaluated whether providing anonymity sufficiently mitigates the impact of stigma on accurate reporting. This study used the unmatched count technique (UCT), a form of randomized response techniques, to gain information about the accuracy of base rate estimates of male MST derived via anonymous assessment of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) combat veterans. A cross-sectional convenience sample of 180 OEF/OIF male combat veterans, recruited via online websites for military populations, provided data about history of MST via traditional anonymous self-report and the UCT. The UCT revealed a rate of male MST more than 15 times higher than the rate derived via traditional anonymous assessment (1.1% vs. 17.2%). These data suggest that anonymity does not adequately mitigate the impact of stigma on disclosure of male MST. Results, though preliminary, suggest that published rates of male MST may substantially underestimate the true rate of this problem. The UCT has significant potential to improve base rate estimation of sensitive behaviors in the military. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Identification of a novel malonyl-CoA IC(50) for CPT-I: implications for predicting in vivo fatty acid oxidation rates.

PubMed

Smith, Brennan K; Perry, Christopher G R; Koves, Timothy R; Wright, David C; Smith, Jeffrey C; Neufer, P Darrell; Muoio, Deborah M; Holloway, Graham P

2012-11-15

Published values regarding the sensitivity (IC(50)) of CPT-I (carnitine palmitoyltransferase I) to M-CoA (malonyl-CoA) inhibition in isolated mitochondria are inconsistent with predicted in vivo rates of fatty acid oxidation. Therefore we have re-examined M-CoA inhibition kinetics under various P-CoA (palmitoyl-CoA) concentrations in both isolated mitochondria and PMFs (permeabilized muscle fibres). PMFs have an 18-fold higher IC(50) (0.61 compared with 0.034 μM) in the presence of 25 μM P-CoA and a 13-fold higher IC(50) (6.3 compared with 0.49 μM) in the presence of 150 μM P-CoA compared with isolated mitochondria. M-CoA inhibition kinetics determined in PMFs predicts that CPT-I activity is inhibited by 33% in resting muscle compared with >95% in isolated mitochondria. Additionally, the ability of M-CoA to inhibit CPT-I appears to be dependent on P-CoA concentration, as the relative inhibitory capacity of M-CoA is decreased with increasing P-CoA concentrations. Altogether, the use of PMFs appears to provide an M-CoA IC(50) that better reflects the predicted in vivo rates of fatty acid oxidation. These findings also demonstrate that the ratio of [P-CoA]/[M-CoA] is critical for regulating CPT-I activity and may partially rectify the in vivo disconnect between M-CoA content and CPT-I flux within the context of exercise and Type 2 diabetes.

A higher-than-predicted measurement of iron opacity at solar interior temperatures.

PubMed

Bailey, J E; Nagayama, T; Loisel, G P; Rochau, G A; Blancard, C; Colgan, J; Cosse, Ph; Faussurier, G; Fontes, C J; Gilleron, F; Golovkin, I; Hansen, S B; Iglesias, C A; Kilcrease, D P; MacFarlane, J J; Mancini, R C; Nahar, S N; Orban, C; Pain, J-C; Pradhan, A K; Sherrill, M; Wilson, B G

2015-01-01

Nearly a century ago it was recognized that radiation absorption by stellar matter controls the internal temperature profiles within stars. Laboratory opacity measurements, however, have never been performed at stellar interior conditions, introducing uncertainties in stellar models. A particular problem arose when refined photosphere spectral analysis led to reductions of 30-50 per cent in the inferred amounts of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in the Sun. Standard solar models using the revised element abundances disagree with helioseismic observations that determine the internal solar structure using acoustic oscillations. This could be resolved if the true mean opacity for the solar interior matter were roughly 15 per cent higher than predicted, because increased opacity compensates for the decreased element abundances. Iron accounts for a quarter of the total opacity at the solar radiation/convection zone boundary. Here we report measurements of wavelength-resolved iron opacity at electron temperatures of 1.9-2.3 million kelvin and electron densities of (0.7-4.0) × 10(22) per cubic centimetre, conditions very similar to those in the solar region that affects the discrepancy the most: the radiation/convection zone boundary. The measured wavelength-dependent opacity is 30-400 per cent higher than predicted. This represents roughly half the change in the mean opacity needed to resolve the solar discrepancy, even though iron is only one of many elements that contribute to opacity.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.

PubMed

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-09-01

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013). During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.

Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran

PubMed Central

Akbari, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Heydari, Seyed Taghi; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Lankarani, Kamran Bagheri

2015-01-01

Introduction: Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period. Methods: We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009–2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014–2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009–2013). Results: During 2009–2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85–12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26–8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%. Conclusion: Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians’ deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths. PMID:26435824

Rapid and accurate prediction of degradant formation rates in pharmaceutical formulations using high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Darrington, Richard T; Jiao, Jim

2004-04-01

Rapid and accurate stability prediction is essential to pharmaceutical formulation development. Commonly used stability prediction methods include monitoring parent drug loss at intended storage conditions or initial rate determination of degradants under accelerated conditions. Monitoring parent drug loss at the intended storage condition does not provide a rapid and accurate stability assessment because often <0.5% drug loss is all that can be observed in a realistic time frame, while the accelerated initial rate method in conjunction with extrapolation of rate constants using the Arrhenius or Eyring equations often introduces large errors in shelf-life prediction. In this study, the shelf life prediction of a model pharmaceutical preparation utilizing sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) to directly quantitate degradant formation rates at the intended storage condition is proposed. This method was compared to traditional shelf life prediction approaches in terms of time required to predict shelf life and associated error in shelf life estimation. Results demonstrated that the proposed LC/MS method using initial rates analysis provided significantly improved confidence intervals for the predicted shelf life and required less overall time and effort to obtain the stability estimation compared to the other methods evaluated. Copyright 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.

Dialysate interleukin-6 predicts increasing peritoneal solute transport rate in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Repeated exposure to peritoneal dialysis (PD) solutions contributes to cumulative intraperitoneal inflammation and peritoneal injury. The present study aimed to explore the capacity of dialysate interleukin-6(IL-6) to a) predict peritoneal membrane function and peritonitis in incident PD patients, and b) to evaluate the influence of neutral pH, low glucose degradation product (GDP) PD solution on dialysate IL-6 levels. Methods The study included 88 incident participants from the balANZ trial who had completed 24-months of follow-up. Change in peritoneal solute transport rate (PSTR) and peritonitis were primary outcome measures, and the utility of IL-6 and IL-6 appearance rate (IL-6 AR) in predicting these outcomes was analyzed using multilevel linear regression and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were performed by analyzing outcomes in a peritonitis-free cohort (n = 56). Results Dialysate IL-6 concentration significantly increased from baseline to 24 months (mean difference 19.07 pg/mL; P < 0.001) but was not affected by the type of PD solution received (P = 0.68). An increase in PSTR from baseline was associated with higher levels of IL-6 (P = 0.004), the use of standard solutions (P = 0.005) and longer PD duration (P < 0.001). Baseline IL-6 level was not associated with a shorter time to first peritonitis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, P = 0.74). Analysis of IL-6 AR as well as sensitivity analyses in a peritonitis-free cohort yielded comparable results. Conclusion Dialysate IL-6 concentration increased with longer PD duration and was a significant, independent predictor of PSTR. The use of biocompatible PD solutions exerted no significant effect on dialysate IL-6 levels but did abrogate the increase in PSTR associated with standard PD solutions. This is the first study to examine the impact of biocompatible solutions on the utility of IL-6 in predicting PSTR and peritonitis. PMID:24410736

Frequency rates and correlates of contrapower harassment in higher education.

PubMed

DeSouza, Eros R

2011-01-01

The current study investigated incivility, sexual harassment, and racial-ethnic harassment simultaneously when the targets were faculty members and the perpetrators were students (i.e., academic contrapower harassment; ACH). The sample constituted 257 faculty members (90% were White and 53% were women) from a medium-sized state university in the Midwestern United States. They completed an anonymous survey, including an openended question about a critical ACH incident. The findings revealed that 72% of the total sample had experienced some type of mistreatment from students during the past 2 years. The author hypothesized gender differences in frequency rates for overall ACH, incivility, and sexual harassment; however, there were none. Hence, this hypothesis was not supported. The author also hypothesized that incivility would predict sexual and ethnic harassment. This hypothesis was generally supported. Furthermore, he hypothesized that demographic, work-related, and tolerance for faculty-student romance would predict ACH and its subscales. The findings generally supported this hypothesis, with somewhat different predictors by gender. He also hypothesized that harassed faculty, especially women, would experience worse job-related outcomes than never harassed faculty. Neither gender nor the interaction was significant, but the main effect for harassment was, with harassed faculty members experiencing worse job-related outcomes than nonharassed faculty members. Thus this hypothesis was partially supported. Practical implications are discussed.

Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

2017-03-01

This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

Use of age-adjusted rates of suicide in time series studies in Israel.

PubMed

Bridges, F Stephen; Tankersley, William B

2009-01-01

Durkheim's modified theory of suicide was examined to explore how consistent it was in predicting Israeli rates of suicide from 1965 to 1997 when using age-adjusted rates rather than crude ones. In this time-series study, Israeli male and female rates of suicide increased and decreased, respectively, between 1965 and 1997. Conforming to Durkheim's modified theory, the Israeli male rate of suicide was lower in years when rates of marriage and birth are higher, while rates of suicide are higher in years when rates of divorce are higher, the opposite to that of Israeli women. The corrected regression coefficients suggest that the Israeli female rate of suicide remained lower in years when rate of divorce is higher, again the opposite suggested by Durkheim's modified theory. These results may indicate that divorce affects the mental health of Israeli women as suggested by their lower rate of suicide. Perhaps the "multiple roles held by Israeli females creates suicidogenic stress" and divorce provides some sense of stress relief, mentally speaking. The results were not as consistent with predictions suggested by Durkheim's modified theory of suicide as were rates from the United States for the same period nor were they consistent with rates based on "crude" suicide data. Thus, using age-adjusted rates of suicide had an influence on the prediction of the Israeli rate of suicide during this period.

Higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase predict failure of cessation efforts in male smokers.

PubMed

Dušková, M; Simůnková, K; Hill, M; Hruškovičová, H; Hoskovcová, P; Králíková, E; Stárka, L

2010-01-01

The ability to predict the success or failure of smoking cessation efforts will be useful for clinical practice. Stress response is regulated by two primary neuroendocrine systems. Salivary cortisol has been used as a marker for the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and salivary alpha-amylase as a marker for the sympathetic adrenomedullary system. We studied 62 chronic smokers (34 women and 28 men with an average age of 45.2+/-12.9 years). The levels of salivary cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase were measured during the period of active smoking, and 6 weeks and 24 weeks after quitting. We analyzed the men separately from the women. The men who were unsuccessful in cessation showed significantly higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase over the entire course of the cessation attempt. Before stopping smoking, salivary cortisol levels were higher among the men who were unsuccessful in smoking cessation. After quitting, there were no differences between this group and the men who were successful in cessation. In women we found no differences between groups of successful and unsuccessful ex-smokers during cessation. In conclusions, increased levels of salivary alpha-amylase before and during smoking cessation may predict failure to quit in men. On the other hand, no advantage was found in predicting the failure to quit in women. The results of our study support previously described gender differences in smoking cessation.

Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

2018-05-01

The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

QSPR prediction of the hydroxyl radical rate constant of water contaminants.

PubMed

Borhani, Tohid Nejad Ghaffar; Saniedanesh, Mohammadhossein; Bagheri, Mehdi; Lim, Jeng Shiun

2016-07-01

In advanced oxidation processes (AOPs), the aqueous hydroxyl radical (HO) acts as a strong oxidant to react with organic contaminants. The hydroxyl radical rate constant (kHO) is important for evaluating and modelling of the AOPs. In this study, quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) method is applied to model the hydroxyl radical rate constant for a diverse dataset of 457 water contaminants from 27 various chemical classes. The constricted binary particle swarm optimization and multiple-linear regression (BPSO-MLR) are used to obtain the best model with eight theoretical descriptors. An optimized feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed to investigate the complex performance of the selected molecular parameters with kHO. Although the FFNN prediction results are more accurate than those obtained using BPSO-MLR, the application of the latter is much more convenient. Various internal and external validation techniques indicate that the obtained models could predict the logarithmic hydroxyl radical rate constants of a large number of water contaminants with less than 4% absolute relative error. Finally, the above-mentioned proposed models are compared to those reported earlier and the structural factors contributing to the AOP degradation efficiency are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting county-level cancer incidence rates and counts in the United States

PubMed Central

Yu, Binbing

2018-01-01

Many countries, including the United States, publish predicted numbers of cancer incidence and death in current and future years for the whole country. These predictions provide important information on the cancer burden for cancer control planners, policymakers and the general public. Based on evidence from several empirical studies, the joinpoint (segmented-line linear regression) model has been adopted by the American Cancer Society to estimate the number of new cancer cases in the United States and in individual states since 2007. Recently, cancer incidence in smaller geographic regions such as counties and FIPS code regions is of increasing interest by local policymakers. The natural extension is to directly apply the joinpoint model to county-level cancer incidence data. The direct application has several drawbacks and its performance has not been evaluated. To address the concerns, we developed a spatial random-effects joinpoint model for county-level cancer incidence data. The proposed model was used to predict both cancer incidence rates and counts at the county level. The standard joinpoint model and the proposed method were compared through a validation study. The proposed method out-performed the standard joinpoint model for almost all cancer sites, especially for moderate or rare cancer sites and for counties with small population sizes. As an application, we predicted county-level prostate cancer incidence rates and counts for the year 2011 in Connecticut. PMID:23670947

Indigenous Australian Students' Participation Rates in Higher Education: Exploring the Role of Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pechenkina, Ekaterina; Kowal, Emma; Paradies, Yin

2011-01-01

Indigenous Australians are underrepresented and considerably disadvantaged within the Australian system of higher education. The various measures taken by Australian universities over the past decades have produced varying levels of success in increasing Indigenous participation and completion rates. In order to continue improving Indigenous…

Slat Noise Predictions Using Higher-Order Finite-Difference Methods on Overset Grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housman, Jeffrey A.; Kiris, Cetin

2016-01-01

Computational aeroacoustic simulations using the structured overset grid approach and higher-order finite difference methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are presented for slat noise predictions. The simulations are part of a collaborative study comparing noise generation mechanisms between a conventional slat and a Krueger leading edge flap. Simulation results are compared with experimental data acquired during an aeroacoustic test in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. Details of the structured overset grid, numerical discretization, and turbulence model are provided.

Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words

PubMed Central

Vejdemo, Susanne; Hörberg, Thomas

2016-01-01

The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For the 167 content items in the Swadesh list, data was gathered on the features of lexical replacement rate, word class, frequency, age of acquisition, synonyms, arousal, imageability and average mutual information, either from published databases or gathered from corpora and lexica. A linear regression model shows that, in addition to frequency, synonyms, senses and imageability are significantly related to the lexical replacement rate of content words–in particular the number of synonyms that a word has. The model shows no differences in lexical replacement rate between word classes, and outperforms a model with word class and word frequency predictors only. PMID:26820737

The SIST-M: Predictive validity of a brief structured Clinical Dementia Rating interview

PubMed Central

Okereke, Olivia I.; Pantoja-Galicia, Norberto; Copeland, Maura; Hyman, Bradley T.; Wanggaard, Taylor; Albert, Marilyn S.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Blacker, Deborah

2011-01-01

Background We previously established reliability and cross-sectional validity of the SIST-M (Structured Interview and Scoring Tool–Massachusetts Alzheimer's Disease Research Center), a shortened version of an instrument shown to predict progression to Alzheimer disease (AD), even among persons with very mild cognitive impairment (vMCI). Objective To test predictive validity of the SIST-M. Methods Participants were 342 community-dwelling, non-demented older adults in a longitudinal study. Baseline Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) ratings were determined by either: 1) clinician interviews or 2) a previously developed computer algorithm based on 60 questions (of a possible 131) extracted from clinician interviews. We developed age+gender+education-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models using CDR-sum-of-boxes (CDR-SB) as the predictor, where CDR-SB was determined by either clinician interview or algorithm; models were run for the full sample (n=342) and among those jointly classified as vMCI using clinician- and algorithm-based CDR ratings (n=156). We directly compared predictive accuracy using time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Results AD hazard ratios (HRs) were similar for clinician-based and algorithm-based CDR-SB: for a 1-point increment in CDR-SB, respective HRs (95% CI)=3.1 (2.5,3.9) and 2.8 (2.2,3.5); among those with vMCI, respective HRs (95% CI) were 2.2 (1.6,3.2) and 2.1 (1.5,3.0). Similarly high predictive accuracy was achieved: the concordance probability (weighted average of the area-under-the-ROC curves) over follow-up was 0.78 vs. 0.76 using clinician-based vs. algorithm-based CDR-SB. Conclusion CDR scores based on items from this shortened interview had high predictive ability for AD – comparable to that using a lengthy clinical interview. PMID:21986342

Prediction by data mining, of suicide attempts in Korean adolescents: a national study

PubMed Central

Bae, Sung Man; Lee, Seung A; Lee, Seung-Hwan

2015-01-01

Objective This study aimed to develop a prediction model for suicide attempts in Korean adolescents. Methods We conducted a decision tree analysis of 2,754 middle and high school students nationwide. We fixed suicide attempt as the dependent variable and eleven sociodemographic, intrapersonal, and extrapersonal variables as independent variables. Results The rate of suicide attempts of the total sample was 9.5%, and severity of depression was the strongest variable to predict suicide attempt. The rates of suicide attempts in the depression and potential depression groups were 5.4 and 2.8 times higher than that of the non-depression group. In the depression group, the most powerful factor to predict a suicide attempt was delinquency, and the rate of suicide attempts in those in the depression group with higher delinquency was two times higher than in those in the depression group with lower delinquency. Of special note, the rate of suicide attempts in the depressed females with higher delinquency was the highest. Interestingly, in the potential depression group, the most impactful factor to predict a suicide attempt was intimacy with family, and the rate of suicide attempts of those in the potential depression group with lower intimacy with family was 2.4 times higher than that of those in the potential depression group with higher intimacy with family. And, among the potential depression group, middle school students with lower intimacy with family had a 2.5-times higher rate of suicide attempts than high school students with lower intimacy with family. Finally, in the non-depression group, stress level was the most powerful factor to predict a suicide attempt. Among the non-depression group, students who reported high levels of stress showed an 8.3-times higher rate of suicide attempts than students who reported average levels of stress. Discussion Based on the results, we especially need to pay attention to depressed females with higher delinquency and those with

Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

PubMed

Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

2015-12-01

Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

PubMed

Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

The "killing zone" revisited: serial nonlinearities predict general aviation accident rates from pilot total flight hours.

PubMed

Knecht, William R

2013-11-01

Is there a "killing zone" (Craig, 2001)-a range of pilot flight time over which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk? More broadly, can we predict accident rates, given a pilot's total flight hours (TFH)? These questions interest pilots, aviation policy makers, insurance underwriters, and researchers alike. Most GA research studies implicitly assume that accident rates are linearly related to TFH, but that relation may actually be multiply nonlinear. This work explores the ability of serial nonlinear modeling functions to predict GA accident rates from noisy rate data binned by TFH. Two sets of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)/Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data were log-transformed, then curve-fit to a gamma-pdf-based function. Despite high rate-noise, this produced weighted goodness-of-fit (Rw(2)) estimates of .654 and .775 for non-instrument-rated (non-IR) and instrument-rated pilots (IR) respectively. Serial-nonlinear models could be useful to directly predict GA accident rates from TFH, and as an independent variable or covariate to control for flight risk during data analysis. Applied to FAA data, these models imply that the "killing zone" may be broader than imagined. Relatively high risk for an individual pilot may extend well beyond the 2000-h mark before leveling off to a baseline rate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

2018-03-01

The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.

Improved prediction of higher heating value of biomass using an artificial neural network model based on proximate analysis.

PubMed

Uzun, Harun; Yıldız, Zeynep; Goldfarb, Jillian L; Ceylan, Selim

2017-06-01

As biomass becomes more integrated into our energy feedstocks, the ability to predict its combustion enthalpies from routine data such as carbon, ash, and moisture content enables rapid decisions about utilization. The present work constructs a novel artificial neural network model with a 3-3-1 tangent sigmoid architecture to predict biomasses' higher heating values from only their proximate analyses, requiring minimal specificity as compared to models based on elemental composition. The model presented has a considerably higher correlation coefficient (0.963) and lower root mean square (0.375), mean absolute (0.328), and mean bias errors (0.010) than other models presented in the literature which, at least when applied to the present data set, tend to under-predict the combustion enthalpy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

2013-01-01

This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

Prediction of Disease Case Severity Level To Determine INA CBGs Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puspitorini, Sukma; Kusumadewi, Sri; Rosita, Linda

2017-03-01

Indonesian Case-Based Groups (INA CBGs) is case-mix payment system using software grouper application. INA CBGs consisting of four digits code where the last digits indicating the severity level of disease cases. Severity level influence by secondary diagnosis (complications and co-morbidity) related to resource intensity level. It is medical resources used to treat a hospitalized patient. Objectives of this research is developing decision support system to predict severity level of disease cases and illustrate INA CBGs rate by using data mining decision tree classification model. Primary diagnosis (DU), first secondary diagnosis (DS 1), and second secondary diagnosis (DS 2) are attributes that used as input of severity level. The training process using C4.5 algorithm and the rules will represent in the IF-THEN form. Credibility of the system analyzed through testing process and confusion matrix present the results. Outcome of this research shows that first secondary diagnosis influence significant to form severity level predicting rules from new disease cases and INA CBGs rate illustration.

Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors.

PubMed

Niessen, A Susan M; Meijer, Rob R; Tendeiro, Jorge N

2016-01-01

We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance.

Mouse spermatozoa with higher fertilization rates have thinner nuclei

PubMed Central

Ikawa, Masahito

2017-01-01

Background Although spermatozoa with normal morphology are assumed to have uniform fertilization ability, recent data show that even normal spermatozoa have considerable variation in their head shape which is associated with differences in fertilization ability. Appropriate quantitative indicators for good sperm morphology, however, remain unidentified. Methods Therefore, in an effort to identify such an indicator, we compared the nuclear contour of normal mouse spermatozoa by quantitative multivariate analysis using elliptic Fourier descriptors combined with principal component analysis. The spermatozoa were obtained from different strains and collection sites which have been shown to be associated with different fertilization abilities. Results We found that the head was 5.7% thinner in spermatozoa from the B6D2F1 (BDF1) strain, known to have a higher fertilization rate, than in those from the C57BL/6N (B6N) strain, which has a lower fertilization rate. Moreover, zona-penetrated spermatozoa in the perivitelline space consistently had 5.4% thinner heads than those isolated from the epididymis before ejaculation. The aspect ratio, which represents the sperm head thinness, uniquely distinguished these sperm populations, confirming its validity as a morphological indicator. Discussion Because aspect ratio has also been shown to characterize human spermatozoa, this unique morphometric indicator might be applicable to compare normal spermatozoa among multiple patients, which will greatly facilitate and enhance current reproductive technologies. PMID:29038763

Higher rate alternative non-drug reinforcement produces faster suppression of cocaine seeking but more resurgence when removed.

PubMed

Craig, Andrew R; Nall, Rusty W; Madden, Gregory J; Shahan, Timothy A

2016-06-01

Relapse following removal of an alternative source of reinforcement introduced during extinction of a target behavior is called resurgence. This form of relapse may be related to relapse of drug taking following loss of alternative non-drug reinforcement in human populations. Laboratory investigations of factors mediating resurgence with food-maintained behavior suggest higher rates of alternative reinforcement produce faster suppression of target behavior but paradoxically generate more relapse when alternative reinforcement is discontinued. At present, it is unknown if a similar effect occurs when target behavior is maintained by drug reinforcement and the alternative is a non-drug reinforcer. In the present experiment three groups of rats were trained to lever press for infusions of cocaine during baseline. Next, during treatment, cocaine reinforcement was suspended and an alternative response was reinforced with either high-rate, low-rate, or no alternative food reinforcement. Finally, all reinforcement was suspended to test for relapse of cocaine seeking. Higher rate alternative reinforcement produced faster elimination of cocaine seeking than lower rates or extinction alone, but when treatment was suspended resurgence of cocaine seeking occurred following only high-rate alternative reinforcement. Thus, although higher rate alternative reinforcement appears to more effectively suppress drug seeking, should it become unavailable, it can have the unfortunate effect of increasing relapse. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does the Economic Crisis Have an Influence on the Higher Education Dropout Rate?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leão Fernandes, Graça; Chagas Lopes, Margarida

2016-01-01

This research aims to identify the effects of the economic crisis on higher education (HE) dropout rates at Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG)--Universidade de Lisboa, after having controlled for individual characteristics, family background, High School and HE trajectories. Our main hypothesis is that the economic crisis induces…

Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

2010-01-01

In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

Aluminum X-ray mass-ablation rate measurements

DOE PAGES

Kline, John L.; Hager, Jonathan D.

2016-10-15

Measurements of the mass ablation rate of aluminum (Al) have been completed at the Omega Laser Facility. Measurements of the mass-ablation rate show Al is higher than plastic (CH), comparable to high density carbon (HDC), and lower than beryllium. The mass-ablation rate is consistent with predictions using a 1D Lagrangian code, Helios. Lastly, the results suggest Al capsules have a reasonable ablation pressure even with a higher albedo than beryllium or carbon ablators warranting further investigation into the viability of Al capsules for ignition should be pursued.

Calm Merino ewes have a higher ovulation rate and more multiple pregnancies than nervous ewes.

PubMed

van Lier, E; Hart, K W; Viñoles, C; Paganoni, B; Blache, D

2017-07-01

In 1990, two selection lines of Merino sheep were established for low and high behavioural reactivity (calm and nervous temperament) at the University of Western Australia. Breeding records consistently showed that calm ewes weaned 10% to 19% more lambs than the nervous ewes. We hypothesise that calm ewes could have a higher ovulation rate than nervous ewes and/or calm ewes could have a lower rate of embryo mortality than nervous ewes. We tested these hypotheses by comparing the ovulation rate and the rate of embryo mortality between the calm and nervous lines before and after synchronisation and artificial insemination. Merino ewes from the temperament selection lines (calm, n=100; nervous, n=100) were synchronised (early breeding season) for artificial insemination (day 0) (intravaginal sponges containing fluogestone acetate and eCG immediately after sponge withdrawal). On day-17 and 11 ovarian cyclicity and corpora lutea, and on days 30 and 74 pregnancies and embryos/foetuses were determined by ultrasound. Progesterone, insulin and leptin concentrations were determined in blood plasma samples from days 5, 12 and 17. Ovarian cyclicity before and after oestrus synchronisation did not differ between the lines, but ovulation rate did (day-17: calm 1.63; nervous 1.26; P<0.01; day 11: calm 1.83; nervous 1.57; P<0.05). Ovulation rate on day 11 in nervous ewes was higher than on day-17. Loss of embryos by day 30 was high (calm: 71/150; nervous: 68/130); but nervous ewes had a lower proportion (15/47) of multiple pregnancies compared with calm ewes (30/46; P<0.01). Reproductive loss between days 30 and 74 represented 7.3% of the overall loss. Temperament did not affect concentrations of progesterone, but nervous ewes had higher insulin (32.0 pmol/l±1.17 SEM; P=0.013) and lower leptin (1.18 μg/l±0.04 SEM; P=0.002) concentrations than calm ewes (insulin: 27.8 pmol/l±1.17 SEM; leptin: 1.35 μg/l±0.04 SEM). The differences in reproductive outcomes between the calm and

Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Toua, Rene Elaine; de Kock, Jacques Erasmus; Welzel, Tyson

2016-02-01

Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glucose predictability, blood capillary permeability, and glucose utilization rate in subcutaneous, skeletal muscle, and visceral fat tissues.

PubMed

Koutny, Tomas

2013-11-01

This study suggests an approach for the comparison and evaluation of particular compartments with modest experimental setup costs. A glucose level prediction model was used to evaluate the compartment's glucose transport rate across the blood capillary membrane and the glucose utilization rate by the cells. The glucose levels of the blood, subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were obtained in experiments conducted on hereditary hypertriglyceridemic rats. After the blood glucose level had undergone a rapid change, the experimenter attempted to reach a steady blood glucose level by manually correcting the glucose infusion rate and maintaining a constant insulin infusion rate. The interstitial fluid glucose levels of subcutaneous tissue, skeletal muscle tissue, and visceral fat were evaluated to determine the reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level, the interstitial fluid glucose level predictability, the blood capillary permeability, the effect of the concentration gradient, and the glucose utilization rate. Based on these data, the glucose transport rate across the capillary membrane and the utilization rate in a particular tissue were determined. The rates obtained were successfully verified against positron emission tomography experiments. The subcutaneous tissue exhibits the lowest and the most predictable glucose utilization rate, whereas the skeletal muscle tissue has the greatest glucose utilization rate. In contrast, the visceral fat is the least predictable and has the shortest reaction delay compared with the change in the blood glucose level. The reaction delays obtained for the subcutaneous tissue and skeletal muscle tissue were found to be approximately equal using a metric based on the time required to reach half of the increase in the interstitial fluid glucose level. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Higher Order Corrections in the CoLoRFulNNLO Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somogyi, G.; Kardos, A.; Szőr, Z.; Trócsányi, Z.

We discuss the CoLoRFulNNLO method for computing higher order radiative corrections to jet cross sections in perturbative QCD. We apply our method to the calculation of event shapes and jet rates in three-jet production in electron-positron annihilation. We validate our code by comparing our predictions to previous results in the literature and present the jet cone energy fraction distribution at NNLO accuracy. We also present preliminary NNLO results for the three-jet rate using the Durham jet clustering algorithm matched to resummed predictions at NLL accuracy, and a comparison to LEP data.

Prediction and Computation of Corrosion Rates of A36 Mild Steel in Oilfield Seawater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subir; Mondal, Rajdeep

2018-04-01

The parameters which primarily control the corrosion rate and life of steel structures are several and they vary across the different ocean and seawater as well as along the depth. While the effect of single parameter on corrosion behavior is known, the conjoint effects of multiple parameters and the interrelationship among the variables are complex. Millions sets of experiments are required to understand the mechanism of corrosion failure. Statistical modeling such as ANN is one solution that can reduce the number of experimentation. ANN model was developed using 170 sets of experimental data of A35 mild steel in simulated seawater, varying the corrosion influencing parameters SO4 2-, Cl-, HCO3 -,CO3 2-, CO2, O2, pH and temperature as input and the corrosion current as output. About 60% of experimental data were used to train the model, 20% for testing and 20% for validation. The model was developed by programming in Matlab. 80% of the validated data could predict the corrosion rate correctly. Corrosion rates predicted by the ANN model are displayed in 3D graphics which show many interesting phenomenon of the conjoint effects of multiple variables that might throw new ideas of mitigation of corrosion by simply modifying the chemistry of the constituents. The model could predict the corrosion rates of some real systems.

The Meaning and Predictive Value of Self-rated Mental Health among Persons with a Mental Health Problem.

PubMed

McAlpine, Donna D; McCreedy, Ellen; Alang, Sirry

2018-06-01

Self-rated health is a valid measure of health that predicts quality of life, morbidity, and mortality. Its predictive value reflects a conceptualization of health that goes beyond a traditional medical model. However, less is known about self-rated mental health (SRMH). Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey ( N = 2,547), we examine how rating your mental health as good-despite meeting criteria for a mental health problem-predicts outcomes. We found that 62% of people with a mental health problem rated their mental health positively. Persons who rated their mental health as good (compared to poor) had 30% lower odds of having a mental health problem at follow-up. Even without treatment, persons with a mental health problem did better if they perceived their mental health positively. SRMH might comprise information beyond the experience of symptoms. Understanding the unobserved information individuals incorporate into SRMH will help us improve screening and treatment interventions.

Higher Crash and Near-Crash Rates in Teenaged Drivers With Lower Cortisol Response

PubMed Central

Ouimet, Marie Claude; Brown, Thomas G.; Guo, Feng; Klauer, Sheila G.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Fang, Youjia; Lee, Suzanne E.; Gianoulakis, Christina; Dingus, Thomas A.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Road traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of injury and death among teenagers worldwide. Better understanding of the individual pathways to driving risk may lead to better-targeted intervention in this vulnerable group. OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between cortisol, a neurobiological marker of stress regulation linked to risky behavior, and driving risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study was designed to continuously monitor the driving behavior of teenagers by instrumenting vehicles with kinematic sensors, cameras, and a global positioning system. During 2006–2008, a community sample of 42 newly licensed 16-year-old volunteer participants in the United States was recruited and driving behavior monitored. It was hypothesized in teenagers that higher cortisol response to stress is associated with (1) lower crash and near-crash (CNC) rates during their first 18 months of licensure and (2) faster reduction in CNC rates over time. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants’ cortisol response during a stress-inducing task was assessed at baseline, followed by measurement of their involvement in CNCs and driving exposure during their first 18 months of licensure. Mixed-effect Poisson longitudinal regression models were used to examine the association between baseline cortisol response and CNC rates during the follow-up period. RESULTS Participants with a higher baseline cortisol response had lower CNC rates during the follow-up period (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.93; 95%CI, 0.88–0.98) and faster decrease in CNC rates over time (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.98; 95%, CI, 0.96–0.99). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cortisol is a neurobiological marker associated with teenaged-driving risk. As in other problem-behavior fields, identification of an objective marker of teenaged-driving risk promises the development of more personalized intervention approaches. PMID:24710522

Islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose predicts insulin independence for first clinical islet allotransplants

PubMed Central

Kitzmann, JP; O’Gorman, D; Kin, T; Gruessner, AC; Senior, P; Imes, S; Gruessner, RW; Shapiro, AMJ; Papas, KK

2014-01-01

Human islet allotransplant (ITx) for the treatment of type 1 diabetes is in phase III clinical registration trials in the US and standard of care in several other countries. Current islet product release criteria include viability based on cell membrane integrity stains, glucose stimulated insulin release (GSIR), and islet equivalent (IE) dose based on counts. However, only a fraction of patients transplanted with islets that meet or exceed these release criteria become insulin independent following one transplant. Measurements of islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) have been reported as highly predictive of transplant outcome in many models. In this paper we report on the assessment of clinical islet allograft preparations using islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose (or viable IE dose) and current product release assays in a series of 13 first transplant recipients. The predictive capability of each assay was examined and successful graft function was defined as 100% insulin independence within 45 days post-transplant. Results showed that OCR dose was most predictive of CTO. IE dose was also highly predictive, while GSIR and membrane integrity stains were not. In conclusion, OCR dose can predict CTO with high specificity and sensitivity and is a useful tool for evaluating islet preparations prior to clinical ITx. PMID:25131089

Priors in perception: Top-down modulation, Bayesian perceptual learning rate, and prediction error minimization.

PubMed

Hohwy, Jakob

2017-01-01

I discuss top-down modulation of perception in terms of a variable Bayesian learning rate, revealing a wide range of prior hierarchical expectations that can modulate perception. I then switch to the prediction error minimization framework and seek to conceive cognitive penetration specifically as prediction error minimization deviations from a variable Bayesian learning rate. This approach retains cognitive penetration as a category somewhat distinct from other top-down effects, and carves a reasonable route between penetrability and impenetrability. It prevents rampant, relativistic cognitive penetration of perception and yet is consistent with the continuity of cognition and perception. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sending Nudes: Sex, Self-Rated Mate Value, and Trait Machiavellianism Predict Sending Unsolicited Explicit Images

PubMed Central

March, Evita; Wagstaff, Danielle L.

2017-01-01

Modern dating platforms have given rise to new dating and sexual behaviors. In the current study, we examine predictors of sending unsolicited explicit images, a particularly underexplored online sexual behavior. The aim of the current study was to explore the utility of dark personality traits (i.e., narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism) and self-rated mate value in predicting attitudes toward and behavior of sending unsolicited explicit images. Two hundred and forty participants (72% female; Mage = 25.96, SD = 9.79) completed an online questionnaire which included a measure of self-rated mate value, a measure of dark personality traits, and questions regarding sending unsolicited explicit images (operationalized as the explicit image scale). Men, compared to women, were found to have higher explicit image scale scores, and both self-rated mate value and trait Machiavellianism were positive predictors of explicit image scale scores. Interestingly, there were no significant interactions between sex and these variables. Further, Machiavellianism mediated all relationships between other dark traits and explicit image scale scores, indicating this behavior is best explained by the personality trait associated with behavioral strategies. In sum, these results provide support for the premise that sending unsolicited explicit images may be a tactic of a short-term mating strategy; however, future research should further explore this claim. PMID:29326632

Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

2018-01-01

This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

Rates of concussion are lower in National Football League games played at higher altitudes.

PubMed

Myer, Gregory D; Smith, David; Barber Foss, Kim D; Dicesare, Christopher A; Kiefer, Adam W; Kushner, Adam M; Thomas, Staci M; Sucharew, Heidi; Khoury, Jane C

2014-03-01

Retrospective epidemiologic investigation. To investigate the relationship between altitude and concussion rate in the National Football League (NFL). Because of the physiologic responses that occur during acclimatization to altitude, it was hypothesized that games played on fields at a higher altitude would have reduced concussion rates compared to games played on fields at a lower altitude. Recent research indicates that the elevation above sea level at which football games are played may be associated with the likelihood of a concussion in high school football athletes. Data on incident concussions and athlete exposures for the first 16 weeks of the NFL 2012 and 2013 regular seasons were obtained from publicly available web-based sources and used to calculate competition concussion rates for each NFL stadium. Concussion rates were analyzed in relation to game elevation. During the first 16 weeks of the 2012 and 2013 NFL regular seasons, 300 concussions, involving 284 players, were reported (64.3 primary cases per 10,000 game exposures). The odds of a concussion were 30% lower when playing at a higher elevation (equal to or greater than 644 ft [196.3 m] above sea level) compared to a lower elevation (odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.94). A multivariable generalized linear model controlling for season, week, and clustering of team at home and away confirmed these results, showing that the odds of at least 1 concussion were reduced by 32% in games played at higher elevation. The results of this epidemiological investigation indicate that increased altitude was associated with a reduction in the odds of a sport-related concussion in NFL athletes. The reported relationship of concussion incidence and field elevation should be further investigated, and, if verified, further work will be needed to understand why that relationship exists. Prognosis, level 2c.

Estimation of basal metabolic rate in Chinese: are the current prediction equations applicable?

PubMed

Camps, Stefan G; Wang, Nan Xin; Tan, Wei Shuan Kimberly; Henry, C Jeyakumar

2016-08-31

Measurement of basal metabolic rate (BMR) is suggested as a tool to estimate energy requirements. Therefore, BMR prediction equations have been developed in multiple populations because indirect calorimetry is not always feasible. However, there is a paucity of data on BMR measured in overweight and obese adults living in Asia and equations developed for this group of interest. The aim of this study was to develop a new BMR prediction equation for Chinese adults applicable for a large BMI range and compare it with commonly used prediction equations. Subjects were 121 men and 111 women (age: 21-67 years, BMI: 16-41 kg/m(2)). Height, weight, and BMR were measured. Continuous open-circuit indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 30 min was used to measure BMR. A regression equation was derived using stepwise regression and accuracy was compared to 6 existing equations (Harris-Benedict, Henry, Liu, Yang, Owen and Mifflin). Additionally, the newly derived equation was cross-validated in a separate group of 70 Chinese subjects (26 men and 44 women, age: 21-69 years, BMI: 17-39 kg/m(2)). The equation developed from our data was: BMR (kJ/d) = 52.6 x weight (kg) + 828 x gender + 1960 (women = 0, men = 1; R(2) = 0.81). The accuracy rate (within 10 % accurate) was 78 % which compared well to Owen (70 %), Henry (67 %), Mifflin (67 %), Liu (58 %), Harris-Benedict (45 %) and Yang (37 %) for the whole range of BMI. For a BMI greater than 23, the Singapore equation reached an accuracy rate of 76 %. Cross-validation proved an accuracy rate of 80 %. To date, the newly developed Singapore equation is the most accurate BMR prediction equation in Chinese and is applicable for use in a large BMI range including those overweight and obese.

Among nonagenarians, congruence between self-rated and proxy-rated health was low but both predicted mortality.

PubMed

Vuorisalmi, Merja; Sarkeala, Tytti; Hervonen, Antti; Jylhä, Marja

2012-05-01

The congruence between self-rated global health (SRH) and proxy-rated global health (PRH), the factors associated with congruence between SRH and PRH, and their associations with mortality are examined using data from the Vitality 90+ study. The data consist of 213 pairs of subjects--aged 90 years and older--and proxies. The relationship between SRH and PRH was analyzed by chi-square test and Cohen's kappa. Logistic regression analysis was used to find out the factors that are associated with the congruence between health ratings. The association between SRH and PRH with mortality was studied using Cox proportional hazard models. The subjects rated their health more negatively than the proxies. Kappa value indicated only slight congruence between SRH and PRH, and they also predicted mortality differently. Good self-reported functional ability was associated with congruence between SRH and PRH. The results imply that the evaluation processes of SRH and PRH differ, and the measures are not directly interchangeable. Both measures are useful health indicators in very old age but SRH cannot be replaced by PRH in analyses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts.

PubMed

Meyer, Andreas L S; Wiens, John J

2018-01-01

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro-evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method-of-moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Predicting the effects of coastal hypoxia on vital rates of the planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa Dana.

PubMed

Elliott, David T; Pierson, James J; Roman, Michael R

2013-01-01

We describe a model predicting the effects of low environmental oxygen on vital rates (egg production, somatic growth, and mortality) of the coastal planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa. Hypoxic conditions can result in respiration rate being directly limited by oxygen availability. We hypothesized that A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion rates would all respond in a similar manner to low oxygen conditions, as a result of oxygen dependent changes in respiration rate. Rate data for A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion under low environmental oxygen were compiled from the literature and from supplementary experiments. The response of these rates to oxygen was compared by converting all to the analogous units in terms of oxygen utilization, which we termed analogous respiration rate. These analogous respiration rates, along with published measurements of respiration rates, were used to parameterize and evaluate the relationship between A. tonsa respiration rate and environmental oxygen. At 18 °C, our results suggest that A. tonsa experiences sub-lethal effects of hypoxia below an oxygen partial pressure of 8.1 kPa (~3.1 mg L(-1) = 2.3 mL L(-1)). The results of this study can be used to predict the effects of hypoxia on A. tonsa growth and mortality as related to environmental temperature and oxygen partial pressure. Such predictions will be useful as a way to incorporate the effects of coastal hypoxia into population, community, or ecosystem level models that include A. tonsa. This approach can also be used to characterize the effects of hypoxia on other aquatic organisms.

Predicting US Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing Rates: Mothers' Cognitions and Structural Life Circumstances

PubMed Central

Vaala, Sarah E.; Hornik, Robert C.

2014-01-01

There has been rising international concern over media use with children under two. As little is known about the factors associated with more or less viewing among very young children, this study examines maternal factors predictive of TV/video viewing rates among American infants and toddlers. Guided by the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, this survey study examines relationships between children's rates of TV/video viewing and their mothers' structural life circumstances (e.g., number of children in the home; mother's screen use), and cognitions (e.g., attitudes; norms). Results suggest that mothers' structural circumstances and cognitions respectively contribute independent explanatory power to the prediction of children's TV/video viewing. Influence of structural circumstances is partially mediated through cognitions. Mothers' attitudes as well as their own TV/video viewing behavior were particularly predictive of children's viewing. Implications of these findings for international efforts to understand and reduce infant/toddler TV/video exposure are discussed. PMID:25489335

Language-independent talker-specificity in first-language and second-language speech production by bilingual talkers: L1 speaking rate predicts L2 speaking rate

PubMed Central

Bradlow, Ann R.; Kim, Midam; Blasingame, Michael

2017-01-01

Second-language (L2) speech is consistently slower than first-language (L1) speech, and L1 speaking rate varies within- and across-talkers depending on many individual, situational, linguistic, and sociolinguistic factors. It is asked whether speaking rate is also determined by a language-independent talker-specific trait such that, across a group of bilinguals, L1 speaking rate significantly predicts L2 speaking rate. Two measurements of speaking rate were automatically extracted from recordings of read and spontaneous speech by English monolinguals (n = 27) and bilinguals from ten L1 backgrounds (n = 86): speech rate (syllables/second), and articulation rate (syllables/second excluding silent pauses). Replicating prior work, L2 speaking rates were significantly slower than L1 speaking rates both across-groups (monolinguals' L1 English vs bilinguals' L2 English), and across L1 and L2 within bilinguals. Critically, within the bilingual group, L1 speaking rate significantly predicted L2 speaking rate, suggesting that a significant portion of inter-talker variation in L2 speech is derived from inter-talker variation in L1 speech, and that individual variability in L2 spoken language production may be best understood within the context of individual variability in L1 spoken language production. PMID:28253679

Introducing ab initio based neural networks for transition-rate prediction in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messina, Luca; Castin, Nicolas; Domain, Christophe; Olsson, Pär

2017-02-01

The quality of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations of microstructure evolution in alloys relies on the parametrization of point-defect migration rates, which are complex functions of the local chemical composition and can be calculated accurately with ab initio methods. However, constructing reliable models that ensure the best possible transfer of physical information from ab initio to KMC is a challenging task. This work presents an innovative approach, where the transition rates are predicted by artificial neural networks trained on a database of 2000 migration barriers, obtained with density functional theory (DFT) in place of interatomic potentials. The method is tested on copper precipitation in thermally aged iron alloys, by means of a hybrid atomistic-object KMC model. For the object part of the model, the stability and mobility properties of copper-vacancy clusters are analyzed by means of independent atomistic KMC simulations, driven by the same neural networks. The cluster diffusion coefficients and mean free paths are found to increase with size, confirming the dominant role of coarsening of medium- and large-sized clusters in the precipitation kinetics. The evolution under thermal aging is in better agreement with experiments with respect to a previous interatomic-potential model, especially concerning the experiment time scales. However, the model underestimates the solubility of copper in iron due to the excessively high solution energy predicted by the chosen DFT method. Nevertheless, this work proves the capability of neural networks to transfer complex ab initio physical properties to higher-scale models, and facilitates the extension to systems with increasing chemical complexity, setting the ground for reliable microstructure evolution simulations in a wide range of alloys and applications.

Prediction of Airfoil Characteristics With Higher Order Turbulence Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, Thomas B.

1996-01-01

This study focuses on the prediction of airfoil characteristics, including lift and drag over a range of Reynolds numbers. Two different turbulence models, which represent two different types of models, are tested. The first is a standard isotropic eddy-viscosity two-equation model, and the second is an explicit algebraic stress model (EASM). The turbulent flow field over a general-aviation airfoil (GA(W)-2) at three Reynolds numbers is studied. At each Reynolds number, predicted lift and drag values at different angles of attack are compared with experimental results, and predicted variations of stall locations with Reynolds number are compared with experimental data. Finally, the size of the separation zone predicted by each model is analyzed, and correlated with the behavior of the lift coefficient near stall. In summary, the EASM model is able to predict the lift and drag coefficients over a wider range of angles of attack than the two-equation model for the three Reynolds numbers studied. However, both models are unable to predict the correct lift and drag behavior near the stall angle, and for the lowest Reynolds number case, the two-equation model did not predict separation on the airfoil near stall.

Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Juliet S.; O'Reilly, Kathleen M.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2016-01-01

The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental

Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird.

PubMed

Lamb, Juliet S; O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Jodice, Patrick G R

2016-01-01

The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental

Online physician ratings fail to predict actual performance on measures of quality, value, and peer review.

PubMed

Daskivich, Timothy J; Houman, Justin; Fuller, Garth; Black, Jeanne T; Kim, Hyung L; Spiegel, Brennan

2018-04-01

Patients use online consumer ratings to identify high-performing physicians, but it is unclear if ratings are valid measures of clinical performance. We sought to determine whether online ratings of specialist physicians from 5 platforms predict quality of care, value of care, and peer-assessed physician performance. We conducted an observational study of 78 physicians representing 8 medical and surgical specialties. We assessed the association of consumer ratings with specialty-specific performance scores (metrics including adherence to Choosing Wisely measures, 30-day readmissions, length of stay, and adjusted cost of care), primary care physician peer-review scores, and administrator peer-review scores. Across ratings platforms, multivariable models showed no significant association between mean consumer ratings and specialty-specific performance scores (β-coefficient range, -0.04, 0.04), primary care physician scores (β-coefficient range, -0.01, 0.3), and administrator scores (β-coefficient range, -0.2, 0.1). There was no association between ratings and score subdomains addressing quality or value-based care. Among physicians in the lowest quartile of specialty-specific performance scores, only 5%-32% had consumer ratings in the lowest quartile across platforms. Ratings were consistent across platforms; a physician's score on one platform significantly predicted his/her score on another in 5 of 10 comparisons. Online ratings of specialist physicians do not predict objective measures of quality of care or peer assessment of clinical performance. Scores are consistent across platforms, suggesting that they jointly measure a latent construct that is unrelated to performance. Online consumer ratings should not be used in isolation to select physicians, given their poor association with clinical performance.

Application of long-range order to predict unfolding rates of two-state proteins.

PubMed

Harihar, B; Selvaraj, S

2011-03-01

Predicting the experimental unfolding rates of two-state proteins and models describing the unfolding rates of these proteins is quite limited because of the complexity present in the unfolding mechanism and the lack of experimental unfolding data compared with folding data. In this work, 25 two-state proteins characterized by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616) using a consensus set of experimental conditions were taken, and the parameter long-range order (LRO) derived from their three-dimensional structures were related with their experimental unfolding rates ln(k(u)). From the total data set of 30 proteins used by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616), five slow-unfolding proteins with very low unfolding rates were considered to be outliers and were not included in our data set. Except all beta structural class, LRO of both the all-alpha and mixed-class proteins showed a strong inverse correlation of r = -0.99 and -0.88, respectively, with experimental ln(k(u)). LRO shows a correlation of -0.62 with experimental ln(k(u)) for all-beta proteins. For predicting the unfolding rates, a simple statistical method has been used and linear regression equations were developed for individual structural classes of proteins using LRO, and the results obtained showed a better agreement with experimental results. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Prediction of indoor radon/thoron concentration in a model room from exhalation rates of building materials for different ventilation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Manish; Sharma, Navjeet; Sarin, Amit

2018-05-01

Studies have confirmed that elevated levels of radon/thoron in the human-environments can substantially increase the risk of lung cancer in general population. The building materials are the second largest contributors to indoor radon/thoron after soil and bedrock beneath dwellings. In present investigation, the exhalation rates of radon/thoron from different building materials samples have been analysed using active technique. Radon/thoron concentrations in a model room have been predicted based on the exhalation rates from walls, floor and roof. The indoor concentrations show significant variations depending upon the ventilation rate and type of building materials used.

Hurst exponent and prediction based on weak-form efficient market hypothesis of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Cheoljun; Choi, Sunghoon; Oh, Gabjin; Jung, Woo-Sung

2008-07-01

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the directions of future price changes. We used 60 market indexes of various countries. We empirically discovered that the relationship between the degree of efficiency (the Hurst exponent) and the predictability (the hit rate) is strongly positive. That is, a market index with a higher Hurst exponent tends to have a higher hit rate. These results suggested that the Hurst exponent is useful for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, we also discovered that the Hurst exponent and the hit rate are useful as standards that can distinguish emerging capital markets from mature capital markets.

Parental Cognitive Errors Mediate Parental Psychopathology and Ratings of Child Inattention.

PubMed

Haack, Lauren M; Jiang, Yuan; Delucchi, Kevin; Kaiser, Nina; McBurnett, Keith; Hinshaw, Stephen; Pfiffner, Linda

2017-09-01

We investigate the Depression-Distortion Hypothesis in a sample of 199 school-aged children with ADHD-Predominantly Inattentive presentation (ADHD-I) by examining relations and cross-sectional mediational pathways between parental characteristics (i.e., levels of parental depressive and ADHD symptoms) and parental ratings of child problem behavior (inattention, sluggish cognitive tempo, and functional impairment) via parental cognitive errors. Results demonstrated a positive association between parental factors and parental ratings of inattention, as well as a mediational pathway between parental depressive and ADHD symptoms and parental ratings of inattention via parental cognitive errors. Specifically, higher levels of parental depressive and ADHD symptoms predicted higher levels of cognitive errors, which in turn predicted higher parental ratings of inattention. Findings provide evidence for core tenets of the Depression-Distortion Hypothesis, which state that parents with high rates of psychopathology hold negative schemas for their child's behavior and subsequently, report their child's behavior as more severe. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of national fire danger rating indexes

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Miriam L. Rorig; Larry Bradshaw; Sue A. Ferguson; Kenneth J. Westrick; Scott L. Goodrick; Paul Werth

2006-01-01

Weather predictions from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to compute gridded predictions of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes. The model output was applied to a case study of the 2000 fire season in Northern Idaho and Western Montana to simulate an extreme event. To determine the preferred resolution for automating NFD RS predictions, model...

Activity in the human brain predicting differential heart rate responses to emotional facial expressions.

PubMed

Critchley, Hugo D; Rotshtein, Pia; Nagai, Yoko; O'Doherty, John; Mathias, Christopher J; Dolan, Raymond J

2005-02-01

The James-Lange theory of emotion proposes that automatically generated bodily reactions not only color subjective emotional experience of stimuli, but also necessitate a mechanism by which these bodily reactions are differentially generated to reflect stimulus quality. To examine this putative mechanism, we simultaneously measured brain activity and heart rate to identify regions where neural activity predicted the magnitude of heart rate responses to emotional facial expressions. Using a forewarned reaction time task, we showed that orienting heart rate acceleration to emotional face stimuli was modulated as a function of the emotion depicted. The magnitude of evoked heart rate increase, both across the stimulus set and within each emotion category, was predicted by level of activity within a matrix of interconnected brain regions, including amygdala, insula, anterior cingulate, and brainstem. We suggest that these regions provide a substrate for translating visual perception of emotional facial expression into differential cardiac responses and thereby represent an interface for selective generation of visceral reactions that contribute to the embodied component of emotional reaction.

When leaving your ex, love yourself: observational ratings of self-compassion predict the course of emotional recovery following marital separation.

PubMed

Sbarra, David A; Smith, Hillary L; Mehl, Matthias R

2012-03-01

Divorce is a highly stressful event, and much remains to be learned about the factors that promote psychological resilience when marriages come to an end. In this study, divorcing adults (N = 109) completed a 4-min stream-of-consciousness recording about their marital separation at an initial laboratory visit. Four judges rated the degree to which participants exhibited self-compassion (defined by self-kindness, an awareness of one's place in shared humanity, and emotional equanimity) in their recordings. Judges evidenced considerable agreement in their ratings of participants' self-compassion, and these ratings demonstrated strong predictive utility: Higher levels of self-compassion at the initial visit were associated with less divorce-related emotional intrusion into daily life at the start of the study, and this effect persisted up to 9 months later. These effects held when we accounted for a number of competing predictors. Self-compassion is a modifiable variable, and if our findings can be replicated, they may have implications for improving the lives of divorcing adults.

Predicting the Effects of Coastal Hypoxia on Vital Rates of the Planktonic Copepod Acartia tonsa Dana

PubMed Central

Elliott, David T.; Pierson, James J.; Roman, Michael R.

2013-01-01

We describe a model predicting the effects of low environmental oxygen on vital rates (egg production, somatic growth, and mortality) of the coastal planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa. Hypoxic conditions can result in respiration rate being directly limited by oxygen availability. We hypothesized that A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion rates would all respond in a similar manner to low oxygen conditions, as a result of oxygen dependent changes in respiration rate. Rate data for A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion under low environmental oxygen were compiled from the literature and from supplementary experiments. The response of these rates to oxygen was compared by converting all to the analogous units in terms of oxygen utilization, which we termed analogous respiration rate. These analogous respiration rates, along with published measurements of respiration rates, were used to parameterize and evaluate the relationship between A. tonsa respiration rate and environmental oxygen. At 18°C, our results suggest that A. tonsa experiences sub-lethal effects of hypoxia below an oxygen partial pressure of 8.1 kPa (∼3.1 mg L−1 = 2.3 mL L−1). The results of this study can be used to predict the effects of hypoxia on A. tonsa growth and mortality as related to environmental temperature and oxygen partial pressure. Such predictions will be useful as a way to incorporate the effects of coastal hypoxia into population, community, or ecosystem level models that include A. tonsa. This approach can also be used to characterize the effects of hypoxia on other aquatic organisms. PMID:23691134

Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

PubMed

Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

2016-01-01

According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

Higher Magnitude Cash Payments Improve Research Follow-up Rates Without Increasing Drug Use or Perceived Coercion

PubMed Central

Festinger, David S.; Marlowe, Douglas B.; Dugosh, Karen L.; Croft, Jason R.; Arabia, Patricia L.

2008-01-01

In a prior study (Festinger et al., 2005) we found that neither the mode (cash vs. gift card) nor magnitude ($10, $40, or $70) of research follow-up payments increased rates of new drug use or perceptions of coercion. However, higher payments and payments in cash were associated with better follow-up attendance, reduced tracking efforts, and improved participant satisfaction with the study. The present study extended those findings to higher payment magnitudes. Participants from an urban outpatient substance abuse treatment program were randomly assigned to receive $70, $100, $130, or $160 in either cash or a gift card for completing a follow-up assessment at 6 months post-admission (n ≅ 50 per cell). Apart from the payment incentives, all participants received a standardized, minimal platform of follow-up efforts. Findings revealed that neither the magnitude nor mode of payment had a significant effect on new drug use or perceived coercion. Consistent with our previous findings, higher payments and cash payments resulted in significantly higher follow-up rates and fewer tracking calls. In addition participants receiving cash vs. gift cards were more likely to use their payments for essential, non-luxury purchases. Follow-up rates for participants receiving cash payments of $100, $130, and $160 approached or exceeded the FDA required minimum of 70% for studies to be considered in evaluations of new medications. This suggests that the use of higher magnitude payments and cash payments may be effective strategies for obtaining more representative follow-up samples without increasing new drug use or perceptions of coercion. PMID:18395365

Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

Fraction of organic carbon predicts labile desorption rates of chlorinated organic pollutants in laboratory-spiked geosorbents.

PubMed

Ginsbach, Jake W; Killops, Kato L; Olsen, Robert M; Peterson, Brittney; Dunnivant, Frank M

2010-05-01

The resuspension of large volumes of sediments that are contaminated with chlorinated pollutants continues to threaten environmental quality and human health. Whereas kinetic models are more accurate for estimating the environmental impact of these events, their widespread use is substantially hampered by the need for costly, time-consuming, site-specific kinetics experiments. The present study investigated the development of a predictive model for desorption rates from easily measurable sorbent and pollutant properties by examining the relationship between the fraction of organic carbon (fOC) and labile release rates. Duplicate desorption measurements were performed on 46 unique combinations of pollutants and sorbents with fOC values ranging from 0.001 to 0.150. Labile desorption rate constants indicate that release rates predominantly depend upon the fOC in the geosorbent. Previous theoretical models, such as the macro-mesopore and organic matter (MOM) diffusion model, have predicted such a relationship but could not accurately predict the experimental rate constants collected in the present study. An empirical model was successfully developed to correlate the labile desorption rate constant (krap) to the fraction of organic material where log(krap)=0.291-0.785 . log(fOC). These results provide the first experimental evidence that kinetic pollution releases during resuspension events are governed by the fOC content in natural geosorbents. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

Interactions between empathy and resting heart rate in early adolescence predict violent behavior in late adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Galán, Chardée A; Choe, Daniel Ewon; Forbes, Erika E; Shaw, Daniel S

2017-12-01

Although resting heart rate (RHR) and empathy are independently and negatively associated with violent behavior, relatively little is known about the interplay between these psychophysiological and temperament-related risk factors. Using a sample of 160 low-income, racially diverse men followed prospectively from infancy through early adulthood, this study examined whether RHR and empathy during early adolescence independently and interactively predict violent behavior and related correlates in late adolescence and early adulthood. Controlling for child ethnicity, family income, and child antisocial behavior at age 12, empathy inversely predicted moral disengagement and juvenile petitions for violent crimes, while RHR was unrelated to all measures of violent behavior. Interactive effects were also evident such that among men with lower but not higher levels of RHR, lower empathy predicted increased violent behavior, as indexed by juvenile arrests for violent offenses, peer-reported violent behavior at age 17, self-reported moral disengagement at age 17, and self-reported violent behavior at age 20. Implications for prevention and intervention are considered. Specifically, targeting empathic skills among individuals at risk for violent behavior because of specific psychophysiological profiles may lead to more impactful interventions. © 2017 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Can urinary excretion rate of malondialdehyde, uric acid and protein predict the severity and impending death in perinatal asphyxia?

PubMed

Banupriya, C; Ratnakar; Doureradjou, P; Mondal, N; Vishnu, Bhat; Koner, B C

2008-08-01

Perinatal asphyxia (PA) associated with multi-organ damage is a leading cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We evaluated if urinary malondialdehyde:creatinine (UMDA:Cr), uric acid:creatinine (UUA:Cr) and protein:creatinine (UP:Cr) vary with the severity of PA and if these parameters can predict the impending death in PA. Study included 20 asphyxiated and 20 healthy newborn males. Hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) staging, APGAR (activity, pulse, grimace, appearance and respiration) score and urinary protein, uric acid, creatinine and MDA were evaluated. UMDA:Cr, UUA:Cr and UP:Cr were significantly higher and correlated with APGAR and HIE in PA. By regression analysis also, urinary parameters were found to have significant association with HIE stage and APGAR in PA. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of UP:Cr, UUA:Cr and UMDA:Cr showed area under curve of 0.896 (p=0.003), 0.859 (p=0.008) and 0.849 (p=0.010) with cut-off value of 9.04 mg, 2.34 mg and 3.49 microg/mg of creatinine respectively that can optimally predict the impending death in PA. SDS-PAGE of unconcentrated urine detected both high (73 kDa and 68 kDa) and low molecular weight proteins (52 kDa, 47 kDa, 25 kDa and 20 kDa) in PA but not in controls. Urinary excretion rate of uric acid, MDA and proteins is higher and has potential to act as biochemical markers for severity evaluation and death prediction in PA.

Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

PubMed

Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

2017-04-01

Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A 2-fold higher rate of intraventricular hemorrhage-related mortality in African American neonates and infants.

PubMed

Qureshi, Adnan I; Adil, Malik M; Shafizadeh, Negin; Majidi, Shahram

2013-07-01

Despite the recognition of racial or ethnic differences in preterm gestation, such differences in the rate of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), frequently associated with preterm gestation, are not well studied. The authors performed the current study to identify racial or ethnic differences in the incidence of IVH-related mortality within the national population of the US. Using the ICD-10 codes P52.0, P52.1, P52.2, P52.3, and P10.2 and the Multiple Cause of Death data from 2000 to 2009, the authors identified all IVH-related mortalities that occurred in neonates and infants aged less than 1 year. The live births for whites and African Americans from the census for 2000-2009 were used to derive the incidence of IVH-related mortality for whites and African Americans per 100,000 live births. The IVH rate ratio (RR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) and annual percent change (APC) in the incidence rates from 2000 to 2009 were also calculated. A total of 3249 IVH-related mortality cases were reported from 2000 to 2009. The incidence rates of IVH were higher among African American infants (16 per 100,000 live births) than among whites (7.8 per 100,000 live births). African American infants had a 2-fold higher risk of IVH-related mortality compared with whites (RR 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.2). The rate of increase over the last 10 years was less in African American infants (APC 1.6%) than in white infants (APC 4.3%). The rate of IVH-related mortality is 2-fold higher among African American than white neonates and infants. Further studies are required to understand the underlying reasons for this prominent disparity in one of the most significant causes of infant mortality.

Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

2010-01-01

Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

Prediction of outcome of bright light treatment in patients with seasonal affective disorder: Discarding the early response, confirming a higher atypical balance, and uncovering a higher body mass index at baseline as predictors of endpoint outcome.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Tzvetelina D; Reeves, Gloria M; Snitker, Soren; Lapidus, Manana; Sleemi, Aamar R; Balis, Theodora G; Manalai, Partam; Tariq, Muhammad M; Cabassa, Johanna A; Karim, Naila N; Johnson, Mary A; Langenberg, Patricia; Rohan, Kelly J; Miller, Michael; Stiller, John W; Postolache, Teodor T

2017-11-01

We tested the hypothesis that the early improvement in mood after the first hour of bright light treatment compared to control dim-red light would predict the outcome at six weeks of bright light treatment for depressed mood in patients with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). We also analyzed the value of Body Mass Index (BMI) and atypical symptoms of depression at baseline in predicting treatment outcome. Seventy-eight adult participants were enrolled. The first treatment was controlled crossover, with randomized order, and included one hour of active bright light treatment and one hour of control dim-red light, with one-hour washout. Depression was measured on the Structured Interview Guide for the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression-SAD version (SIGH-SAD). The predictive association of depression scores changes after the first session. BMI and atypical score balance with treatment outcomes at endpoint were assessed using multivariable linear and logistic regressions. No significant prediction by changes in depression scores after the first session was found. However, higher atypical balance scores and BMI positively predicted treatment outcome. Absence of a control intervention for the six-weeks of treatment (only the first session in the laboratory was controlled). Exclusion of patients with comorbid substance abuse, suicidality and bipolar I disorder, and patients on antidepressant medications, reducing the generalizability of the study. Prediction of outcome by early response to light treatment was not replicated, and the previously reported prediction of baseline atypical balance was confirmed. BMI, a parameter routinely calculated in primary care, was identified as a novel predictor, and calls for replication and then exploration of possible mediating mechanisms. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Generalized quantum kinetic expansion: Higher-order corrections to multichromophoric Förster theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jianlan; Gong, Zhihao; Tang, Zhoufei

2015-08-01

For a general two-cluster energy transfer network, a new methodology of the generalized quantum kinetic expansion (GQKE) method is developed, which predicts an exact time-convolution equation for the cluster population evolution under the initial condition of the local cluster equilibrium state. The cluster-to-cluster rate kernel is expanded over the inter-cluster couplings. The lowest second-order GQKE rate recovers the multichromophoric Förster theory (MCFT) rate. The higher-order corrections to the MCFT rate are systematically included using the continued fraction resummation form, resulting in the resummed GQKE method. The reliability of the GQKE methodology is verified in two model systems, revealing the relevance of higher-order corrections.

Predictions of homogeneous nucleation rates for n-alkanes accounting for the diffuse phase interface and capillary waves.

PubMed

Planková, Barbora; Vinš, Václav; Hrubý, Jan

2017-10-28

Homogeneous droplet nucleation has been studied for almost a century but has not yet been fully understood. In this work, we used the density gradient theory (DGT) and considered the influence of capillary waves (CWs) on the predicted size-dependent surface tensions and nucleation rates for selected n-alkanes. The DGT model was completed by an equation of state (EoS) based on the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory and compared to the classical nucleation theory and the Peng-Robinson EoS. It was found that the critical clusters are practically free of CWs because they are so small that even the smallest wavelengths of CWs do not fit into their finite dimensions. The CWs contribute to the entropy of the system and thus decrease the surface tension. A correction for the effect of CWs on the surface tension is presented. The effect of the different EoSs is relatively small because by a fortuitous coincidence their predictions are similar in the relevant range of critical cluster sizes. The difference of the DGT predictions to the classical nucleation theory computations is important but not decisive. Of the effects investigated, the most pronounced is the suppression of CWs which causes a sizable decrease of the predicted nucleation rates. The major difference between experimental nucleation rate data and theoretical predictions remains in the temperature dependence. For normal alkanes, this discrepancy is much stronger than observed, e.g., for water. Theoretical corrections developed here have a minor influence on the temperature dependency. We provide empirical equations correcting the predicted nucleation rates to values comparable with experiments.

Predictions of homogeneous nucleation rates for n-alkanes accounting for the diffuse phase interface and capillary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planková, Barbora; Vinš, Václav; Hrubý, Jan

2017-10-01

Homogeneous droplet nucleation has been studied for almost a century but has not yet been fully understood. In this work, we used the density gradient theory (DGT) and considered the influence of capillary waves (CWs) on the predicted size-dependent surface tensions and nucleation rates for selected n-alkanes. The DGT model was completed by an equation of state (EoS) based on the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory and compared to the classical nucleation theory and the Peng-Robinson EoS. It was found that the critical clusters are practically free of CWs because they are so small that even the smallest wavelengths of CWs do not fit into their finite dimensions. The CWs contribute to the entropy of the system and thus decrease the surface tension. A correction for the effect of CWs on the surface tension is presented. The effect of the different EoSs is relatively small because by a fortuitous coincidence their predictions are similar in the relevant range of critical cluster sizes. The difference of the DGT predictions to the classical nucleation theory computations is important but not decisive. Of the effects investigated, the most pronounced is the suppression of CWs which causes a sizable decrease of the predicted nucleation rates. The major difference between experimental nucleation rate data and theoretical predictions remains in the temperature dependence. For normal alkanes, this discrepancy is much stronger than observed, e.g., for water. Theoretical corrections developed here have a minor influence on the temperature dependency. We provide empirical equations correcting the predicted nucleation rates to values comparable with experiments.

Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

PubMed

Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

2011-07-01

1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

The Dubious Utility of the Value-Added Concept in Higher Education: The Case of Accounting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yunker, J.A.

2005-01-01

Using data on CPA exam pass rates and various institutional variables, this research examines the potential usefulness of the value-added concept in accounting higher education. For a sample of 548 US colleges and universities, predicted pass rates were computed from regression equations relating observed pass rates to institutional variables. The…

Smaller hippocampal volumes predict lower antidepressant response/remission rates in depressed patients: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Colle, Romain; Dupong, Irène; Colliot, Olivier; Deflesselle, Eric; Hardy, Patrick; Falissard, Bruno; Ducreux, Denis; Chupin, Marie; Corruble, Emmanuelle

2016-08-15

Whether hippocampal volume predicts response and/or remission after antidepressant treatment of major depressive episodes (MDE) in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains unclear. We meta-analysed prospective studies comparing baseline hippocampal volume in patients with or without response/remission after antidepressant treatment. Pubmed, Embase and Google Scholar were searched for studies of patients with current MDE in MDD, with hippocampal volume assessments at baseline, initiation of antidepressant drug treatment, and prospective assessment of response/remission after treatment. Six studies (374 patients), of which two were positive and four negative, were meta-analysed. Compared to responders/remitters, patients who failed to achieve response/remission had smaller total hippocampus volumes at baseline (mean volume difference = 260 mm 3 , 95% CI [93; 427], P = 0.002). These results remained significant in patients under 60 years of age (P = 0.02), in those over 60 years old (P = 0.04), and for right (P = 0.006) and left (P = 0.02) hippocampi. The probability of non-response/non-remission was 68.6% for patients with a total hippocampal volume at least 10% lower than the average, and 47.1% for patients with a total hippocampal volume 10% higher than the average. In depressed patients treated with antidepressant drugs, smaller hippocampal volumes predict lower response/remission rates.

A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

PubMed

Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

2014-09-01

It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading

PubMed Central

Wlotko, Edward W.; Federmeier, Kara D.

2015-01-01

Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items (‘They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.’). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 ms or 250 ms that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 ms SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs. TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 ms SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 ms SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 ms SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 ms SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 ms SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

PubMed

Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

2016-09-06

Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies.

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

2015-01-01

Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy’s landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk. PMID:27011757

Characterization and prediction of monomer-based dose rate effects in electron-beam polymerization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schissel, Sage M.; Lapin, Stephen C.; Jessop, Julie L. P.

2017-12-01

Properties of some materials produced by electron-beam (EB) induced polymerization appear dependent upon the rate at which the initiating dose was delivered. However, the magnitude of these dose rate effects (DREs) can vary greatly with different monomer formulations, suggesting DREs are dependent on chemical structure. The relationship among dose, dose rate, conversion, and the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the cured material was explored for an acrylate monomer series. A strong correlation was determined between the DRE magnitude and monomer size, and this correlation may be attributed to chain transfer. Using the Tg shift caused by changes in dose, a preliminary predictive relationship was developed to estimate the magnitude of the Tg DRE, enabling scale-up of process variables for polymers prone to dose rate effects.

A study of the 200-metre fast walk test as a possible new assessment tool to predict maximal heart rate and define target heart rate for exercise training of coronary heart disease patients.

PubMed

Casillas, Jean-Marie; Joussain, Charles; Gremeaux, Vincent; Hannequin, Armelle; Rapin, Amandine; Laurent, Yves; Benaïm, Charles

2015-02-01

To develop a new predictive model of maximal heart rate based on two walking tests at different speeds (comfortable and brisk walking) as an alternative to a cardiopulmonary exercise test during cardiac rehabilitation. Evaluation of a clinical assessment tool. A Cardiac Rehabilitation Department in France. A total of 148 patients (133 men), mean age of 59 ±9 years, at the end of an outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme. Patients successively performed a 6-minute walk test, a 200 m fast-walk test (200mFWT), and a cardiopulmonary exercise test, with measure of heart rate at the end of each test. An all-possible regression procedure was used to determine the best predictive regression models of maximal heart rate. The best model was compared with the Fox equation in term of predictive error of maximal heart rate using the paired t-test. Results of the two walking tests correlated significantly with maximal heart rate determined during the cardiopulmonary exercise test, whereas anthropometric parameters and resting heart rate did not. The simplified predictive model with the most acceptable mean error was: maximal heart rate = 130 - 0.6 × age + 0.3 × HR200mFWT (R(2) = 0.24). This model was superior to the Fox formula (R(2) = 0.138). The relationship between training target heart rate calculated from measured reserve heart rate and that established using this predictive model was statistically significant (r = 0.528, p < 10(-6)). A formula combining heart rate measured during a safe simple fast walk test and age is more efficient than an equation only including age to predict maximal heart rate and training target heart rate. © The Author(s) 2014.

Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

2015-01-01

Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

Self-rated health predicts healthcare utilization in heart failure.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Alanna M; Manemann, Sheila M; Dunlay, Shannon M; Spertus, John A; Moser, Debra K; Berardi, Cecilia; Kane, Robert L; Weston, Susan A; Redfield, Margaret M; Roger, Véronique L

2014-05-28

Heart failure (HF) patients experience impaired functional status, diminished quality of life, high utilization of healthcare resources, and poor survival. Yet, the identification of patient-centered factors that influence prognosis is lacking. We determined the association of 2 measures of self-rated health with healthcare utilization and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admission in a community cohort of 417 HF patients prospectively enrolled between October 2007 and December 2010 from Olmsted County, MN. Patients completed a 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12). Low self-reported physical functioning was defined as a score ≤ 25 on the SF-12 physical component. The first question of the SF-12 was used as a measure of self-rated general health. After 2 years, 1033 hospitalizations, 1407 emergency department (ED) visits, and 19,780 outpatient office visits were observed; 87 patients were admitted to a SNF. After adjustment for confounding factors, an increased risk of hospitalizations (1.52 [1.17 to 1.99]) and ED visits (1.48 [1.04 to 2.11]) was observed for those with low versus moderate-high self-reported physical functioning. Patients with poor and fair self-rated general health also experienced an increased risk of hospitalizations (poor: 1.73 [1.29 to 2.32]; fair: 1.46 [1.14 to 1.87]) and ED visits (poor: 1.73 [1.16 to 2.56]; fair: 1.48 [1.13 to 1.93]) compared with good-excellent self-rated general health. No association between self-reported physical functioning or self-rated general health with outpatient visits and SNF admission was observed. In community HF patients, self-reported measures of physical functioning predict hospitalizations and ED visits, indicating that these patient-reported measures may be useful in risk stratification and management in HF. © 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

2015-01-01

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

Changes in monthly unemployment rates may predict changes in the number of psychiatric presentations to emergency services in South Australia.

PubMed

Bidargaddi, Niranjan; Bastiampillai, Tarun; Schrader, Geoffrey; Adams, Robert; Piantadosi, Cynthia; Strobel, Jörg; Tucker, Graeme; Allison, Stephen

2015-07-24

To determine the extent to which variations in monthly Mental Health Emergency Department (MHED) presentations in South Australian Public Hospitals are associated with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly unemployment rates. Times series modelling of relationships between monthly MHED presentations to South Australian Public Hospitals derived from the Integrated South Australian Activity Collection (ISAAC) data base and the ABS monthly unemployment rates in South Australia between January 2004-June 2011. Time series modelling using monthly unemployment rates from ABS as a predictor variable explains 69% of the variation in monthly MHED presentations across public hospitals in South Australia. Thirty-two percent of the variation in current month's male MHED presentations can be predicted by using the 2 months' prior male unemployment rate. Over 63% of the variation in monthly female MHED presentations can be predicted by either male or female prior monthly unemployment rates. The findings of this study highlight that even with the relatively favourable economic conditions, small shifts in monthly unemployment rates can predict variations in monthly MHED presentations, particularly for women. Monthly ABS unemployment rates may be a useful metric for predicting demand for emergency mental health services.

Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, J. R.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, H.; Osman, M.; Cha, D.; Kavet, R.; Cuccinotta, F.; Dicello, J. F.; Dillehay, L. E.

1999-01-01

The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such

A method of predicting flow rates required to achieve anti-icing performance with a porous leading edge ice protection system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kohlman, D. L.; Albright, A. E.

1983-01-01

An analytical method was developed for predicting minimum flow rates required to provide anti-ice protection with a porous leading edge fluid ice protection system. The predicted flow rates compare with an average error of less than 10 percent to six experimentally determined flow rates from tests in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel on a general aviation wing section.

Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

2015-12-01

One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

Predicting functional ability in mild cognitive impairment with the Dementia Rating Scale-2.

PubMed

Greenaway, Melanie C; Duncan, Noah L; Hanna, Sherrie; Smith, Glenn E

2012-06-01

We examined the utility of cognitive evaluation to predict instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and decisional ability in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Sixty-seven individuals with single-domain amnestic MCI were administered the Dementia Rating Scale-2 (DRS-2) as well as the Everyday Cognition assessment form to assess functional ability. The DRS-2 Total Scores and Initiation/Perseveration and Memory subscales were found to be predictive of IADLs, with Total Scores accounting for 19% of the variance in IADL performance on average. In addition, the DRS-2 Initiation/Perseveration and Total Scores were predictive of ability to understand information, and the DRS-2 Conceptualization helped predict ability to communicate with others, both key variables in decision-making ability. These findings suggest that performance on the DRS-2, and specific subscales related to executive function and memory, is significantly related to IADLs in individuals with MCI. These cognitive measures are also associated with decision-making-related abilities in MCI.

Reduction Rates for Higher Americium Oxidation States in Nitric Acid

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grimes, Travis Shane; Mincher, Bruce Jay; Schmitt, Nicholas C

The stability of hexavalent americium was measured using multiple americium concentrations and nitric acid concentrations after contact with the strong oxidant sodium bismuthate. Contrary to our hypotheses Am(VI) was not reduced faster at higher americium concentrations, and the reduction was only zero-order at short time scales. Attempts to model the reduction kinetics using zero order kinetic models showed Am(VI) reduction in nitric acid is more complex than the autoreduction processes reported by others in perchloric acid. The classical zero-order reduction of Am(VI) was found here only for short times on the order of a few hours. We did show thatmore » the rate of Am(V) production was less than the rate of Am(VI) reduction, indicating that some Am(VI) undergoes two electron-reduction to Am(IV). We also monitored the Am(VI) reduction in contact with the organic diluent dodecane. A direct comparison of these results with those in the absence of the organic diluent showed the reduction rates for Am(VI) were not statistically different for both systems. Additional americium oxidations conducted in the presence of Ce(IV)/Ce(III) ions showed that Am(VI) is reduced without the typical growth of Am(V) observed in the systems sans Ce ion. This was an interesting result which suggests a potential new reduction/oxidation pathway for Am in the presence of Ce; however, these results were very preliminary, and will require additional experiments to understand the mechanism by which this occurs. Overall, these studies have shown that hexavalent americium is fundamentally stable enough in nitric acid to run a separations process. However, the complicated nature of the reduction pathways based on the system components is far from being rigorously understood.« less

Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

2015-05-01

The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

What is preexisting strength? Predicting free association probabilities, similarity ratings, and cued recall probabilities.

PubMed

Nelson, Douglas L; Dyrdal, Gunvor M; Goodmon, Leilani B

2005-08-01

Measuring lexical knowledge poses a challenge to the study of the influence of preexisting knowledge on the retrieval of new memories. Many tasks focus on word pairs, but words are embedded in associative networks, so how should preexisting pair strength be measured? It has been measured by free association, similarity ratings, and co-occurrence statistics. Researchers interpret free association response probabilities as unbiased estimates of forward cue-to-target strength. In Study 1, analyses of large free association and extralist cued recall databases indicate that this interpretation is incorrect. Competitor and backward strengths bias free association probabilities, and as with other recall tasks, preexisting strength is described by a ratio rule. In Study 2, associative similarity ratings are predicted by forward and backward, but not by competitor, strength. Preexisting strength is not a unitary construct, because its measurement varies with method. Furthermore, free association probabilities predict extralist cued recall better than do ratings and co-occurrence statistics. The measure that most closely matches the criterion task may provide the best estimate of the identity of preexisting strength.

Multivariate Brain Prediction of Heart Rate and Skin Conductance Responses to Social Threat.

PubMed

Eisenbarth, Hedwig; Chang, Luke J; Wager, Tor D

2016-11-23

Psychosocial stressors induce autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses in multiple body systems that are linked to health risks. Much work has focused on the common effects of stress, but ANS responses in different body systems are dissociable and may result from distinct patterns of cortical-subcortical interactions. Here, we used machine learning to develop multivariate patterns of fMRI activity predictive of heart rate (HR) and skin conductance level (SCL) responses during social threat in humans (N = 18). Overall, brain patterns predicted both HR and SCL in cross-validated analyses successfully (r HR = 0.54, r SCL = 0.58, both p < 0.0001). These patterns partly reflected central stress mechanisms common to both responses because each pattern predicted the other signal to some degree (r HR→SCL = 0.21 and r SCL→HR = 0.22, both p < 0.01), but they were largely physiological response specific. Both patterns included positive predictive weights in dorsal anterior cingulate and cerebellum and negative weights in ventromedial PFC and local pattern similarity analyses within these regions suggested that they encode common central stress mechanisms. However, the predictive maps and searchlight analysis suggested that the patterns predictive of HR and SCL were substantially different across most of the brain, including significant differences in ventromedial PFC, insula, lateral PFC, pre-SMA, and dmPFC. Overall, the results indicate that specific patterns of cerebral activity track threat-induced autonomic responses in specific body systems. Physiological measures of threat are not interchangeable, but rather reflect specific interactions among brain systems. We show that threat-induced increases in heart rate and skin conductance share some common representations in the brain, located mainly in the vmPFC, temporal and parahippocampal cortices, thalamus, and brainstem. However, despite these similarities, the brain patterns that predict these two autonomic responses

High Resolution Mesoscale Weather Data Improvement to Spatial Effects for Dose-Rate Contour Plot Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

time. This is a very powerful tool in determining fine spatial resolution , as boundary conditions are not only updated at every timestep, but the ...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT PREDICTIONS THESIS Christopher P...11 1 HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE WEATHER DATA IMPROVEMENT TO SPATIAL EFFECTS FOR DOSE-RATE CONTOUR PLOT

Validating Whole-Airway CFD Predictions of DPI Aerosol Deposition at Multiple Flow Rates.

PubMed

Longest, P Worth; Tian, Geng; Khajeh-Hosseini-Dalasm, Navvab; Hindle, Michael

2016-12-01

The objective of this study was to compare aerosol deposition predictions of a new whole-airway CFD model with available in vivo data for a dry powder inhaler (DPI) considered across multiple inhalation waveforms, which affect both the particle size distribution (PSD) and particle deposition. The Novolizer DPI with a budesonide formulation was selected based on the availability of 2D gamma scintigraphy data in humans for three different well-defined inhalation waveforms. Initial in vitro cascade impaction experiments were conducted at multiple constant (square-wave) particle sizing flow rates to characterize PSDs. The whole-airway CFD modeling approach implemented the experimentally determined PSDs at the point of aerosol formation in the inhaler. Complete characteristic airway geometries for an adult were evaluated through the lobar bronchi, followed by stochastic individual pathway (SIP) approximations through the tracheobronchial region and new acinar moving wall models of the alveolar region. It was determined that the PSD used for each inhalation waveform should be based on a constant particle sizing flow rate equal to the average of the inhalation waveform's peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR) and mean flow rate [i.e., AVG(PIFR, Mean)]. Using this technique, agreement with the in vivo data was acceptable with <15% relative differences averaged across the three regions considered for all inhalation waveforms. Defining a peripheral to central deposition ratio (P/C) based on alveolar and tracheobronchial compartments, respectively, large flow-rate-dependent differences were observed, which were not evident in the original 2D in vivo data. The agreement between the CFD predictions and in vivo data was dependent on accurate initial estimates of the PSD, emphasizing the need for a combination in vitro-in silico approach. Furthermore, use of the AVG(PIFR, Mean) value was identified as a potentially useful method for characterizing a DPI aerosol at a constant flow rate.

A preliminary study of a running speed based heart rate prediction during an incremental treadmill exercise.

PubMed

Dae-Geun Jang; Byung-Hoon Ko; Sub Sunoo; Sang-Seok Nam; Hun-Young Park; Sang-Kon Bae

2016-08-01

This preliminary study investigates feasibility of a running speed based heart rate (HR) prediction. It is basically motivated from the assumption that there is a significant relationship between HR and the running speed. In order to verify the assumption, HR and running speed data from 217 subjects of varying aerobic capabilities were simultaneously collected during an incremental treadmill exercise. A running speed was defined as a treadmill speed and its corresponding heart rate was calculated by averaging the last one minute HR values of each session. The feasibility was investigated by assessing a correlation between the heart rate and the running speed using inter-subject (between-subject) and intra-subject (within-subject) datasets with regression orders of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Furthermore, HR differences between actual and predicted HRs were also employed to investigate the feasibility of the running speed in predicting heart rate. In the inter-subject analysis, a strong positive correlation and a reasonable HR difference (r = 0.866, 16.55±11.24 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.871, 15.93±11.49 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.897, 13.98±10.80 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.899, 13.93±10.64 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained, and a very high positive correlation and a very low HR difference (r = 0.978, 6.46±3.89 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.987, 5.14±2.87 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.996, 2.61±2.03 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.997, 2.04±1.73 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained in the intra-subject analysis. It can therefore be concluded that 1) heart rate is highly correlated with a running speed; 2) heart rate can be approximately estimated by a running speed with a proper statistical model (e.g., 3rd-order regression); and 3) an individual HR-speed calibration process may improve the prediction accuracy.

Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

PubMed Central

Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

2016-01-01

While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

Mass-loss Rates from Coronal Mass Ejections: A Predictive Theoretical Model for Solar-type Stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cranmer, Steven R.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptive events that cause a solar-type star to shed mass and magnetic flux. CMEs tend to occur together with flares, radio storms, and bursts of energetic particles. On the Sun, CME-related mass loss is roughly an order of magnitude less intense than that of the background solar wind. However, on other types of stars, CMEs have been proposed to carry away much more mass and energy than the time-steady wind. Earlier papers have used observed correlations between solar CMEs and flare energies, in combination with stellar flare observations, to estimate stellar CME rates. This papermore » sidesteps flares and attempts to calibrate a more fundamental correlation between surface-averaged magnetic fluxes and CME properties. For the Sun, there exists a power-law relationship between the magnetic filling factor and the CME kinetic energy flux, and it is generalized for use on other stars. An example prediction of the time evolution of wind/CME mass-loss rates for a solar-mass star is given. A key result is that for ages younger than about 1 Gyr (i.e., activity levels only slightly higher than the present-day Sun), the CME mass loss exceeds that of the time-steady wind. At younger ages, CMEs carry 10–100 times more mass than the wind, and such high rates may be powerful enough to dispel circumstellar disks and affect the habitability of nearby planets. The cumulative CME mass lost by the young Sun may have been as much as 1% of a solar mass.« less

Exercise heart rate gradient: a novel index to predict all-cause mortality.

PubMed

Duarte, Carlos Vieira; Myers, Jonathan; de Araújo, Claudio Gil Soares

2015-05-01

Although substantial evidence relates reduced exercise heart rate (HR) reserve and recovery to a higher risk of all-cause mortality, a combined indicator of these variables has not been explored. Our aim was to combine HR reserve and recovery into a single index and to assess its utility to predict all-cause mortality. Retrospective cohort analysis. Participants were 1476 subjects (937 males) aged between 41 and 79 years who completed a maximal cycle cardiopulmonary exercise test while not using medication with negative chronotropic effects or having an implantable cardiac pacemaker. HR reserve (HR maximum - HR resting) and recovery (HR maximum - HR at 1-min post exercise) were calculated and divided into quintiles. Quintile rankings were summed yielding an exercise HR gradient (EHRG) ranging from 2 to 10, reflecting the magnitude of on- and off-HR transients to exercise. Survival analyses were undertaken using EHRG scores and HR reserve and recovery in the lowest quintiles (Q1). During a mean follow up of 7.3 years, 44 participants died (3.1%). There was an inverse trend for EHRG scores and death rate (p < 0.05) that increased from 1.2% to 13.5%, respectively, for scores 10 and 2. An EHRG score of 2 was a better predictor of all-cause mortality than either Q1 for HR reserve (<80 bpm) or HR recovery alone (<27 bpm): age-adjusted hazard ratios: 3.53 (p = 0.011), 2.52 (p < 0.05), and 2.57 (p < 0.05), respectively. EHRG, a novel index combining HR reserve and HR recovery, is a better indicator of mortality risk than either response alone. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care.

PubMed

Feng, Zhihong; Wang, Tao; Liu, Ping; Chen, Sipeng; Xiao, Han; Xia, Ning; Luo, Zhiming; Wei, Bing; Nie, Xiuhong

2017-01-01

We aimed to investigate the efficacy of four severity-of-disease scoring systems in predicting the 28-day survival rate among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) requiring emergency care. Clinical data of patients with AECOPD who required emergency care were recorded over 2 years. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and MEDS scores were calculated from severity-of-disease indicators recorded at admission and compared between patients who died within 28 days of admission (death group; 46 patients) and those who did not (survival group; 336 patients). Compared to the survival group, the death group had a significantly higher GCS score, frequency of comorbidities including hypertension and heart failure, and age ( P < 0.05 for all). With all four systems, scores of age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and the GCS were significantly higher in the death group than the survival group. The prediction efficacy of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 88.4%. The survival rates did not differ significantly between APACHE II and SAPS II ( P = 1.519). Our results may guide triage for early identification of critically ill patients with AECOPD in the emergency department.

PREDICTION OF VO2PEAK USING OMNI RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION FROM A SUBMAXIMAL CYCLE EXERCISE TEST

PubMed Central

Mays, Ryan J.; Goss, Fredric L.; Nagle-Stilley, Elizabeth F.; Gallagher, Michael; Schafer, Mark A.; Kim, Kevin H.; Robertson, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Summary The primary aim of this study was to develop statistical models to predict peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) using OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion measured during submaximal cycle ergometry. Men (mean ± standard error: 20.90 ± 0.42 yrs) and women (21.59 ± 0.49 yrs) participants (n = 81) completed a load-incremented maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Simultaneous multiple linear regression was used to develop separate VO2peak statistical models using submaximal ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body, legs, and chest/breathing as predictor variables. VO2peak (L·min−1) predicted for men and women from ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.03 ± 0.04), legs (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.04 ± 0.04) and chest/breathing (3.02 ± 0.05; 2.03 ± 0.03) were similar with measured VO2peak (3.02 ± 0.10; 2.03 ± 0.06, ps > .05). Statistical models based on submaximal OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion provide an easily administered and accurate method to predict VO2peak. PMID:25068750

Predicting fractional bed load transport rates: Application of the Wilcock‐Crowe equations to a regulated gravel bed river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaeuman, David; Andrews, E.D.; Krause, Andreas; Smith, Wes

2009-01-01

Bed load samples from four locations in the Trinity River of northern California are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Wilcock‐Crowe bed load transport equations for predicting fractional bed load transport rates. Bed surface particles become smaller and the fraction of sand on the bed increases with distance downstream from Lewiston Dam. The dimensionless reference shear stress for the mean bed particle size (τ*rm) is largest near the dam, but varies relatively little between the more downstream locations. The relation between τ*rm and the reference shear stresses for other size fractions is constant across all locations. Total bed load transport rates predicted with the Wilcock‐Crowe equations are within a factor of 2 of sampled transport rates for 68% of all samples. The Wilcock‐Crowe equations nonetheless consistently under‐predict the transport of particles larger than 128 mm, frequently by more than an order of magnitude. Accurate prediction of the transport rates of the largest particles is important for models in which the evolution of the surface grain size distribution determines subsequent bed load transport rates. Values of τ*rm estimated from bed load samples are up to 50% larger than those predicted with the Wilcock‐Crowe equations, and sampled bed load transport approximates equal mobility across a wider range of grain sizes than is implied by the equations. Modifications to the Wilcock‐Crowe equation for determining τ*rm and the hiding function used to scale τ*rm to other grain size fractions are proposed to achieve the best fit to observed bed load transport in the Trinity River.

Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir

2018-05-01

A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.

Using Student and Institutional Characteristics to Predict Graduation Rates at Community Colleges: New Developments in Performance Measures and Institutional Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moosai, Susan; Walker, David A.; Floyd, Deborah L.

2011-01-01

Prediction models using graduation rate as the performance indicator were obtained for community colleges in California, Florida, and Michigan. The results of this study indicated that institutional graduation rate could be predicted effectively from an aggregate of student and institutional characteristics. A performance measure was computed, the…

Increasing body mass index predicts increasing difficulty, failure rate, and time to discovery of failure of epidural anesthesia in laboring patients.

PubMed

Kula, Ayse O; Riess, Matthias L; Ellinas, Elizabeth H

2017-02-01

Obese parturients both greatly benefit from neuraxial techniques, and may represent a technical challenge to obstetric anesthesiologists. Several studies address the topic of obesity and neuraxial analgesia in general, but few offer well described definitions or rates of "difficulty" and "failure" of labor epidural analgesia. Providing those definitions, we hypothesized that increasing body mass index (BMI) is associated with negative outcomes in both categories and increased time needed for epidural placement. Single center retrospective chart review. Labor and Delivery Unit of an inner city academic teaching hospital. 2485 parturients, ASA status 2 to 4, receiving labor epidural analgesia for anticipated vaginal delivery. None. We reviewed quality assurance and anesthesia records over a 12-month period. "Failure" was defined as either inadequate analgesia or a positive test dose, requiring replacement, and/or when the anesthesia record stated they failed. "Difficulty" was defined as six or more needle redirections or a note indicating difficulty in the anesthesia record. Overall epidural failure and difficulty rates were 4.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Patients with a BMI of 30kg/m 2 or higher had a higher chance of both failure and difficulty with two and almost three fold increases, respectively. Regression analysis indicated that failure was best predicted by BMI and less provider training while difficulty was best predicted by BMI. Additionally, increased BMI was associated with increased time of discovery of epidural catheter failure. Obesity is associated with increasing technical difficulty and failure of neuraxial analgesia for labor. Practitioners should consider allotting extra time for obese parturients in order to manage potential problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2016-02-01

Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

Effects of Recovery Behavior and Strain-Rate Dependence of Stress-Strain Curve on Prediction Accuracy of Thermal Stress Analysis During Casting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motoyama, Yuichi; Shiga, Hidetoshi; Sato, Takeshi; Kambe, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Makoto

2017-06-01

Recovery behavior (recovery) and strain-rate dependence of the stress-strain curve (strain-rate dependence) are incorporated into constitutive equations of alloys to predict residual stress and thermal stress during casting. Nevertheless, few studies have systematically investigated the effects of these metallurgical phenomena on the prediction accuracy of thermal stress in a casting. This study compares the thermal stress analysis results with in situ thermal stress measurement results of an Al-Si-Cu specimen during casting. The results underscore the importance for the alloy constitutive equation of incorporating strain-rate dependence to predict thermal stress that develops at high temperatures where the alloy shows strong strain-rate dependence of the stress-strain curve. However, the prediction accuracy of the thermal stress developed at low temperatures did not improve by considering the strain-rate dependence. Incorporating recovery into the constitutive equation improved the accuracy of the simulated thermal stress at low temperatures. Results of comparison implied that the constitutive equation should include strain-rate dependence to simulate defects that develop from thermal stress at high temperatures, such as hot tearing and hot cracking. Recovery should be incorporated into the alloy constitutive equation to predict the casting residual stress and deformation caused by the thermal stress developed mainly in the low temperature range.

Understanding the Gender and Ethnicity Attainment Gap in UK Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cotton, D. R. E.; Joyner, M.; George, R.; Cotton, P. A.

2016-01-01

In recent years, the success rates of different groups of students in higher education have come under considerable scrutiny, with gender and ethnicity identified as key attributes predicting differential achievement of "good degrees". A review of previous studies highlights the need for research which looks beyond "the deficit…

Speed versus endurance tradeoff in plants: Leaves with higher photosynthetic rates show stronger seasonal declines

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Sack, Lawren; Cao, Kun-Fang; Wei, Xue-Mei; Li, Nan

2017-01-01

We tested for a tradeoff across species between plant maximum photosynthetic rate and the ability to maintain photosynthesis under adverse conditions in the unfavorable season. Such a trade-off would be consistent with the observed trade-off between maximum speed and endurance in athletes and some animals that has been explained by cost-benefit theory. This trend would have importance for the general understanding of leaf design, and would simplify models of annual leaf carbon relations. We tested for such a trade-off using a database analysis across vascular plants and using an experimental approach for 29 cycad species, representing an ancient plant lineage with diversified evergreen leaves. In both tests, a higher photosynthetic rate per mass or per area in the favorable season was associated with a stronger absolute or percent decline in the unfavorable season. We resolved a possible mechanism based on biomechanics and nitrogen allocation; cycads with high leaf toughness (leaf mass per area) and higher investment in leaf construction than in physiological function (C/N ratio) tended to have lower warm season photosynthesis but less depression in the cool season. We propose that this trade-off, consistent with cost-benefit theory, represents a significant physio-phenological constraint on the diversity and seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic rate. PMID:28186201

A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity in women with pelvic floor disorders

PubMed Central

Kanter, Gregg; Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy; Thakar, Ranee

2015-01-01

Introduction and Hypothesis We evaluated the associations between pelvic floor muscle strength and tone with sexual activity and sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter study of women with pelvic floor disorders from the US and UK performed to validate the Pelvic Organ Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire, IUGA-Revised (PISQ-IR). Participants were surveyed about whether they were sexually active and completed the PISQ-IR and Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaires to assess sexual function. Physical exams included assessment of pelvic floor strength by the Oxford Grading Scale, and assessment of pelvic floor tone per ICS guidelines. Results The cohort of 585 women was middle aged (mean age 54.9 +/−12.1) with 395 (67.5%) reporting sexual activity. Women with a strong pelvic floor (n=275) were more likely to report sexual activity than women with weak strength (n=280) (75.3 vs. 61.8%, p<0.001), but normal or hypoactive pelvic floor tone was not associated with sexual activity (68.8 vs. 60.2%, normal vs. hypoactive, p=0.08). After multivariable analysis, a strong pelvic floor remained predictive of sexual activity (OR 1.89, CI 1.18–3.03, p<0.01). Among sexually active women (n=370), a strong pelvic floor was associated with higher scores on the PISQ-IR domain of condition impact (Parameter Estimate 0.20+/−0.09, P=0.04), and FSFI orgasm domain (PE 0.51+/−0.17, P=0.004). Conclusion A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity as well as higher sexual function scores on the condition impact domain of the PISQ-IR and orgasm domain of the FSFI. PMID:25994625

Designing safer chemicals: Predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, H.; Anders, M.W.; Higgins, L.

1995-11-21

A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts that rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies ({Delta}H{sub act}) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: (rate, human CYP2E1) = 44.99 - 1.79 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.86; In (rate, human Cyp2E1)= 46399 -1.77 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.97 (rates are in nmolmore » of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. 41 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.« less

Predictions of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanikar, Prasenjit; Zikry, M. A.

2014-01-01

A dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity formulation, specialized finite-element techniques, and rational crystallographic orientation relations were used to predict and characterize the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary distributions. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain rate applications and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-bonded interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking, and delamination are the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be used to optimize behavior for high strain rate applications.

Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

PubMed

Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

2016-03-01

We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reward rate optimization in two-alternative decision making: empirical tests of theoretical predictions.

PubMed

Simen, Patrick; Contreras, David; Buck, Cara; Hu, Peter; Holmes, Philip; Cohen, Jonathan D

2009-12-01

The drift-diffusion model (DDM) implements an optimal decision procedure for stationary, 2-alternative forced-choice tasks. The height of a decision threshold applied to accumulating information on each trial determines a speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) for the DDM, thereby accounting for a ubiquitous feature of human performance in speeded response tasks. However, little is known about how participants settle on particular tradeoffs. One possibility is that they select SATs that maximize a subjective rate of reward earned for performance. For the DDM, there exist unique, reward-rate-maximizing values for its threshold and starting point parameters in free-response tasks that reward correct responses (R. Bogacz, E. Brown, J. Moehlis, P. Holmes, & J. D. Cohen, 2006). These optimal values vary as a function of response-stimulus interval, prior stimulus probability, and relative reward magnitude for correct responses. We tested the resulting quantitative predictions regarding response time, accuracy, and response bias under these task manipulations and found that grouped data conformed well to the predictions of an optimally parameterized DDM.

Evaluation of Advanced Reactive Surface Area Estimates for Improved Prediction of Mineral Reaction Rates in Porous Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckingham, L. E.; Mitnick, E. H.; Zhang, S.; Voltolini, M.; Yang, L.; Steefel, C. I.; Swift, A.; Cole, D. R.; Sheets, J.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Anovitz, L. M.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; DePaolo, D.

2015-12-01

CO2 sequestration in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions but the rate and extent of mineral trapping remains difficult to predict. Reactive transport models provide predictions of mineral trapping based on laboratory mineral reaction rates, which have been shown to have large discrepancies with field rates. This, in part, may be due to poor quantification of mineral reactive surface area in natural porous media. Common estimates of mineral reactive surface area are ad hoc and typically based on grain size, adjusted several orders of magnitude to account for surface roughness and reactivity. This results in orders of magnitude discrepancies in estimated surface areas that directly translate into orders of magnitude discrepancies in model predictions. Additionally, natural systems can be highly heterogeneous and contain abundant nano- and micro-porosity, which can limit connected porosity and access to mineral surfaces. In this study, mineral-specific accessible surface areas are computed for a sample from the reservoir formation at the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). Accessible mineral surface areas are determined from a multi-scale image analysis including X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB. Powder and flow-through column laboratory experiments are performed and the evolution of solutes in the aqueous phase is tracked. Continuum-scale reactive transport models are used to evaluate the impact of reactive surface area on predictions of experimental reaction rates. Evaluated reactive surface areas include geometric and specific surface areas (eg. BET) in addition to their reactive-site weighted counterparts. The most accurate predictions of observed powder mineral dissolution rates were obtained through use of grain-size specific surface areas computed from a BET-based correlation. Effectively, this surface area reflects the grain-fluid contact area, or accessible surface area, in the powder

Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

Engaging Students Emotionally: The Role of Emotional Intelligence in Predicting Cognitive and Affective Engagement in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maguire, Rebecca; Egan, Arlene; Hyland, Philip; Maguire, Phil

2017-01-01

Student engagement is a key predictor of academic performance, persistence and retention in higher education. While many studies have identified how aspects of the college environment influence engagement, fewer have specifically focused on emotional intelligence (EI). In this study, we sought to explore whether EI could predict cognitive and/or…

Value of FDG-PET scans of non-demented patients in predicting rates of future cognitive and functional decline.

PubMed

Torosyan, Nare; Mason, Kelsey; Dahlbom, Magnus; Silverman, Daniel H S

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine the value of fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in predicting subsequent rates of functional and cognitive decline among subjects considered cognitively normal (CN) or clinically diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Analyses of 276 subjects, 92 CN subjects and 184 with MCI, who were enrolled in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, were conducted. Functional decline was assessed using scores on the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ) obtained over a period of 36 months, while cognitive decline was determined using the Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. PET images were analyzed using clinically routine brain quantification software. A dementia prognosis index (DPI), derived from a ratio of uptake values in regions of interest known to be hypometabolic in Alzheimer's disease to regions known to be stable, was generated for each baseline FDG-PET scan. The DPI was correlated with change in scores on the neuropsychological examinations to examine the predictive value of baseline FDG-PET. DPI powerfully predicted rate of functional decline among MCI patients (t = 5.75, p < 1.0E-8) and pooled N + MCI patient groups (t = 7.02, p < 1.0E-11). Rate of cognitive decline on MMSE was also predicted by the DPI among MCI (t = 6.96, p < 1.0E-10) and pooled N + MCI (t = 8.78, p < 5.0E-16). Rate of cognitive decline on ADAS-cog was powerfully predicted by the DPI alone among N (p < 0.001), MCI (t = 6.46, p < 1.0E-9) and for pooled N + MCI (t = 8.85, p = 1.1E-16). These findings suggest that an index, derivable from automated regional analysis of brain PET scans, can be used to help predict rates of functional and cognitive deterioration in the years following baseline PET.

Epileptic Seizures Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods

PubMed Central

Usman, Syed Muhammad

2017-01-01

Epileptic seizures occur due to disorder in brain functionality which can affect patient's health. Prediction of epileptic seizures before the beginning of the onset is quite useful for preventing the seizure by medication. Machine learning techniques and computational methods are used for predicting epileptic seizures from Electroencephalograms (EEG) signals. However, preprocessing of EEG signals for noise removal and features extraction are two major issues that have an adverse effect on both anticipation time and true positive prediction rate. Therefore, we propose a model that provides reliable methods of both preprocessing and feature extraction. Our model predicts epileptic seizures' sufficient time before the onset of seizure starts and provides a better true positive rate. We have applied empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for preprocessing and have extracted time and frequency domain features for training a prediction model. The proposed model detects the start of the preictal state, which is the state that starts few minutes before the onset of the seizure, with a higher true positive rate compared to traditional methods, 92.23%, and maximum anticipation time of 33 minutes and average prediction time of 23.6 minutes on scalp EEG CHB-MIT dataset of 22 subjects. PMID:29410700

US Intergroup Anal Carcinoma Trial: Tumor Diameter Predicts for Colostomy

PubMed Central

Ajani, Jaffer A.; Winter, Kathryn A.; Gunderson, Leonard L.; Pedersen, John; Benson, Al B.; Thomas, Charles R.; Mayer, Robert J.; Haddock, Michael G.; Rich, Tyvin A.; Willett, Christopher G.

2009-01-01

Purpose The US Gastrointestinal Intergroup Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 98-11 anal carcinoma trial showed that cisplatin-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy resulted in a significantly higher rate of colostomy compared with mitomycin-based therapy. Established prognostic variables for patients with anal carcinoma include tumor diameter, clinical nodal status, and sex, but pretreatment variables that would predict the likelihood of colostomy are unknown. Methods A secondary analysis was performed by combining patients in the two treatment arms to evaluate whether new predictive and prognostic variables would emerge. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to correlate overall survival (OS), disease-free survival, and time to colostomy (TTC) with pretreatment and treatment variables. Results Of 682 patients enrolled, 644 patients were assessable and analyzed. In the multivariate analysis, tumor-related prognosticators for poorer OS included node-positive cancer (P ≤ .0001), large (> 5 cm) tumor diameter (P = .01), and male sex (P = .016). In the treatment-related categories, cisplatin-based therapy was statistically significantly associated with a higher rate of colostomy (P = .03) than was mitomycin-based therapy. In the pretreatment variables category, only large tumor diameter independently predicted for TTC (P = .008). Similarly, the cumulative 5-year colostomy rate was statistically significantly higher for large tumor diameter than for small tumor diameter (Gray's test; P = .0074). Clinical nodal status and sex were not predictive of TTC. Conclusion The combined analysis of the two arms of RTOG 98-11, representing the largest prospective database, reveals that tumor diameter (irrespective of the nodal status) is the only independent pretreatment variable that predicts TTC and 5-year colostomy rate in patients with anal carcinoma. PMID:19139424

Psychomotor testing predicts rate of skill acquisition for proficiency-based laparoscopic skills training.

PubMed

Stefanidis, Dimitrios; Korndorffer, James R; Black, F William; Dunne, J Bruce; Sierra, Rafael; Touchard, Cheri L; Rice, David A; Markert, Ronald J; Kastl, Peter R; Scott, Daniel J

2006-08-01

Laparoscopic simulator training translates into improved operative performance. Proficiency-based curricula maximize efficiency by tailoring training to meet the needs of each individual; however, because rates of skill acquisition vary widely, such curricula may be difficult to implement. We hypothesized that psychomotor testing would predict baseline performance and training duration in a proficiency-based laparoscopic simulator curriculum. Residents (R1, n = 20) were enrolled in an IRB-approved prospective study at the beginning of the academic year. All completed the following: a background information survey, a battery of 12 innate ability measures (5 motor, and 7 visual-spatial), and baseline testing on 3 validated simulators (5 videotrainer [VT] tasks, 12 virtual reality [minimally invasive surgical trainer-virtual reality, MIST-VR] tasks, and 2 laparoscopic camera navigation [LCN] tasks). Participants trained to proficiency, and training duration and number of repetitions were recorded. Baseline test scores were correlated to skill acquisition rate. Cutoff scores for each predictive test were calculated based on a receiver operator curve, and their sensitivity and specificity were determined in identifying slow learners. Only the Cards Rotation test correlated with baseline simulator ability on VT and LCN. Curriculum implementation required 347 man-hours (6-person team) and 795,000 dollars of capital equipment. With an attendance rate of 75%, 19 of 20 residents (95%) completed the curriculum by the end of the academic year. To complete training, a median of 12 hours (range, 5.5-21), and 325 repetitions (range, 171-782) were required. Simulator score improvement was 50%. Training duration and repetitions correlated with prior video game and billiard exposure, grooved pegboard, finger tap, map planning, Rey Figure Immediate Recall score, and baseline performance on VT and LCN. The map planning cutoff score proved most specific in identifying slow learners

Correction to "A general power equation for predicting bed load transport rates in gravel bed rivers"

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Barry; John M. Buffington; John G. King

2007-01-01

In the paper "A general power equation for predicting bed load transport rates in gravel bed rivers" by Jeffrey J. Barry et al. (Water Resources Research, 40, W10401, doi:10.1029/2004WR003190, 2004), the y axis for Figures 5 and 10 was incorrectly labeled and should have read "log10 (predicted transport) - log10 (observed transport)." In addition,...

Graduation Rates and the Higher Education Demographic Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

2013-01-01

In his 1918 orienting work, The Higher Learning in America, Veblen highlights two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). As of 2006, this overarching mission remained intact. In contemporary literature, a common measure of the efficacy of the…

Decreased activation and subsyndromal manic symptoms predict lower remission rates in bipolar depression.

PubMed

Caldieraro, Marco Antonio; Walsh, Samantha; Deckersbach, Thilo; Bobo, William V; Gao, Keming; Ketter, Terence A; Shelton, Richard C; Reilly-Harrington, Noreen A; Tohen, Mauricio; Calabrese, Joseph R; Thase, Michael E; Kocsis, James H; Sylvia, Louisa G; Nierenberg, Andrew A

2017-11-01

Activation encompasses energy and activity and is a central feature of bipolar disorder. However, the impact of activation on treatment response of bipolar depression requires further exploration. The aims of this study were to assess the association of decreased activation and sustained remission in bipolar depression and test for factors that could affect this association. We assessed participants with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed) bipolar depression ( n = 303) included in a comparative effectiveness study of lithium- and quetiapine-based treatments (the Bipolar CHOICE study). Activation was evaluated using items from the Bipolar Inventory of Symptoms Scale. The selection of these items was based on a dimension of energy and interest symptoms associated with poorer treatment response in major depression. Decreased activation was associated with lower remission rates in the raw analyses and in a logistic regression model adjusted for baseline severity and subsyndromal manic symptoms (odds ratio = 0.899; p = 0.015). The manic features also predicted lower remission (odds ratio = 0.934; p < 0.001). Remission rates were similar in the two treatment groups. Decreased activation and subsyndromal manic symptoms predict lower remission rates in bipolar depression. Patients with these features may require specific treatment approaches, but new studies are necessary to identify treatments that could improve outcomes in this population.

Ads' click-through rates predicting based on gated recurrent unit neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi

2018-05-01

In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated recurrent unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through rates(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit recurrent neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated recurrent unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.

Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations.

PubMed

Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F; Englert, Chris

2016-01-01

We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests.

Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations

PubMed Central

Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F.; Englert, Chris

2016-01-01

We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

Comparison of higher order spectra in heart rate signals during two techniques of meditation: Chi and Kundalini meditation.

PubMed

Goshvarpour, Ateke; Goshvarpour, Atefeh

2013-02-01

The human heartbeat is one of the important examples of complex physiologic fluctuations. For the first time in this study higher order spectra of heart rate signals during meditation have explored. Specifically, the aim of this study was to analysis and compares the contribution of quadratic phase coupling of human heart rate variability during two forms of meditation: (1) Chinese Chi (or Qigong) meditation and (2) Kundalini Yoga meditation. For this purpose, Bispectrum was estimated by using biased, parametric and the direct (FFT) method. The results show that the mean Bispectrum magnitude of heart rate signals increased during Kundalini Yoga meditation, but it decreased significantly during Chi meditation. However, in both meditation techniques phase-coupled harmonics are shifted to the higher frequencies during meditation. In addition, it has shown that not only there are significant differences between rest and meditation states, but also heart rate patterns appear to be influenced by different types of meditation.

Resting metabolic rate in elite rowers and canoeists: difference between indirect calorimetry and prediction.

PubMed

Carlsohn, Anja; Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike; Cassel, Michael; Mayer, Frank

2011-01-01

Athletes may differ in their resting metabolic rate (RMR) from the general population. However, to estimate the RMR in athletes, prediction equations that have not been validated in athletes are often used. The purpose of this study was therefore to verify the applicability of commonly used RMR predictions for use in athletes. The RMR was measured by indirect calorimetry in 17 highly trained rowers and canoeists of the German national teams (BMI 24 ± 2 kg/m(2), fat-free mass 69 ± 15 kg). In addition, the RMR was predicted using Cunningham (CUN) and Harris-Benedict (HB) equations. A two-way repeated measures ANOVA was calculated to test for differences between predicted and measured RMR (α = 0.05). The root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) was calculated and the Bland-Altman procedure was used to quantify the bias for each prediction. Prediction equations significantly underestimated the RMR in males (p < 0.001). The RMSPE was calculated to be 18.4% (CUN) and 20.9% (HB) in the entire group. The bias was 133 kcal/24 h for CUN and 202 kcal/24 h for HB. Predictions significantly underestimate the RMR in male heavyweight endurance athletes but not in females. In athletes with a high fat-free mass, prediction equations might therefore not be applicable to estimate energy requirements. Instead, measurement of the resting energy expenditure or specific prediction equations might be needed for the individual heavyweight athlete. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Assessment of general movements and heart rate variability in prediction of neurodevelopmental outcome in preterm infants.

PubMed

Dimitrijević, Lidija; Bjelaković, Bojko; Čolović, Hristina; Mikov, Aleksandra; Živković, Vesna; Kocić, Mirjana; Lukić, Stevo

2016-08-01

Adverse neurologic outcome in preterm infants could be associated with abnormal heart rate (HR) characteristics as well as with abnormal general movements (GMs) in the 1st month of life. To demonstrate to what extent GMs assessment can predict neurological outcome in preterm infants in our clinical setting; and to assess the clinical usefulness of time-domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV) in improving predictive value of poor repertoire (PR) GMs in writhing period. Qualitative assessment of GMs at 1 and 3 months corrected age; 24h electrocardiography (ECG) recordings and analyzing HRV at 1 month corrected age. Seventy nine premature infants at risk of neurodevelopmental impairments were included prospectively. Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed at the age of 2 years corrected. Children were classified as having normal neurodevelopmental status, minor neurologic dysfunction (MND), or cerebral palsy (CP). We found that GMs in writhing period (1 month corrected age) predicted CP at 2 years with sensitivity of 100%, and specificity of 72.1%. Our results demonstrated the excellent predictive value of cramped synchronized (CS) GMs, but not of PR pattern. Analyzing separately a group of infants with PR GMs we found significantly lower values of HRV parameters in infants who later developed CP or MND vs. infants with PR GMs who had normal outcome. The quality of GMs was predictive for neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years. Prediction of PR GMs was significantly enhanced with analyzing HRV parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Higher leukocyte count predicts 3-month poor outcome of ruptured cerebral aneurysms.

PubMed

Yao, Pei-Sen; Chen, Guo-Rong; Xie, Xue-Ling; Shang-Guan, Huang-Cheng; Gao, Jin-Zhen; Lin, Yuan-Xiang; Zheng, Shu-Fa; Lin, Zhang-Ya; Kang, De-Zhi

2018-04-11

It is not fully established whether leukocyte can predict the poor outcome for ruptured cerebral aneurysms (CA) or not. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 428 patients with ruptured CA between 2010 and 2015. Patients' demographic data, including gender, age, history of smoking, alcohol, hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, Hunt-Hess and Fisher grade, occurrence of hydrocephalus, aneurysm location, time to surgery, delayed ischemic neurological deficit (DIND) and peak leukocyte of blood test from day 1 to 3 after aneurysmal rupture were recorded and analyzed. In the multivariable analysis model, gender, Fisher grade, time to surgery and hydrocephalus were not relevant to poor outcome. However, Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were significantly associated with adverse outcome. The respective increased risks were 5.2- (OR5.24, 95% CI 1.67-16.50, p = 0.005), 6.2-(OR 6.24, 95% CI 3.55-10.99, p < 0.001) and 10.9-fold (OR 9.35, 95% CI 5.98-19.97, p < 0.001). The study revealed that Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were independent risk factors for poor outcome of ruptured CA at 3 months. Higher leukocyte count is a convenient and useful marker to predict 3-month poor outcome for ruptured CA.

Program ratings do not predict negative content in commercials on children's channels.

PubMed

Dale, Lourdes P; Klein, Jordana; DiLoreto, James; Pidano, Anne E; Borto, Jolanta W; McDonald, Kathleen; Olson, Heather; Neace, William P

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the presence of negative content in commercials airing on 3 children's channels (Disney Channel, Nickelodeon, and Cartoon Network). The 1681 commercials were coded with a reliable coding system and content comparisons were made. Although the majority of the commercials were coded as neutral, negative content was present in 13.5% of commercials. This rate was significantly more than the predicted value of zero and more similar to the rates cited in previous research examining content during sporting events. The rate of negative content was less than, but not significantly different from, the rate of positive content. Thus, our findings did not support our hypothesis that there would be more commercials with positive content than with negative content. Logistic regression analysis indicated that channel, and not rating, was a better predictor of the presence of overall negative content and the presence of violent behaviors. Commercials airing on the Cartoon Network had significantly more negative content, and those airing on Disney Channel had significantly less negative content than the other channels. Within the individual channels, program ratings did not relate to the presence of negative content. Parents cannot assume the content of commercials will be consistent with the program rating or label. Pediatricians and psychologists should educate parents about the potential for negative content in commercials and advocate for a commercials rating system to ensure that there is greater parity between children's programs and the corresponding commercials.

Higher schizotypy predicts better metabolic profile in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Atbasoglu, E Cem; Gumus-Akay, Guvem; Guloksuz, Sinan; Saka, Meram Can; Ucok, Alp; Alptekin, Koksal; Gullu, Sevim; van Os, Jim

2018-04-01

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is more frequent in schizophrenia (Sz) than in the general population. This association is partly accounted for by shared susceptibility genetic variants. We tested the hypotheses that a genetic predisposition to Sz would be associated with higher likelihood of insulin resistance (IR), and that IR would be predicted by subthreshold psychosis phenotypes. Unaffected siblings of Sz patients (n = 101) were compared with a nonclinical sample (n = 305) in terms of IR, schizotypy (SzTy), and a behavioural experiment of "jumping to conclusions". The measures, respectively, were the Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), Structured Interview for Schizotypy-Revised (SIS-R), and the Beads Task (BT). The likelihood of IR was examined in multiple regression models that included sociodemographic, metabolic, and cognitive parameters alongside group status, SIS-R scores, and BT performance. Insulin resistance was less frequent in siblings (31.7%) compared to controls (43.3%) (p < 0.05), and negatively associated with SzTy, as compared among the tertile groups for the latter (p < 0.001). The regression model that examined all relevant parameters included the tSzTy tertiles, TG and HDL-C levels, and BMI, as significant predictors of IR. Lack of IR was predicted by the highest as compared to the lowest SzTy tertile [OR (95%CI): 0.43 (0.21-0.85), p = 0.015]. Higher dopaminergic activity may contribute to both schizotypal features and a favourable metabolic profile in the same individual. This is compatible with dopamine's regulatory role in glucose metabolism via indirect central actions and a direct action on pancreatic insulin secretion. The relationship between dopaminergic activity and metabolic profile in Sz must be examined in longitudinal studies with younger unaffected siblings.

Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

PubMed

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

2018-05-01

We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validating Whole-Airway CFD Predictions of DPI Aerosol Deposition at Multiple Flow Rates

PubMed Central

Tian, Geng; Khajeh-Hosseini-Dalasm, Navvab; Hindle, Michael

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: The objective of this study was to compare aerosol deposition predictions of a new whole-airway CFD model with available in vivo data for a dry powder inhaler (DPI) considered across multiple inhalation waveforms, which affect both the particle size distribution (PSD) and particle deposition. Methods: The Novolizer DPI with a budesonide formulation was selected based on the availability of 2D gamma scintigraphy data in humans for three different well-defined inhalation waveforms. Initial in vitro cascade impaction experiments were conducted at multiple constant (square-wave) particle sizing flow rates to characterize PSDs. The whole-airway CFD modeling approach implemented the experimentally determined PSDs at the point of aerosol formation in the inhaler. Complete characteristic airway geometries for an adult were evaluated through the lobar bronchi, followed by stochastic individual pathway (SIP) approximations through the tracheobronchial region and new acinar moving wall models of the alveolar region. Results: It was determined that the PSD used for each inhalation waveform should be based on a constant particle sizing flow rate equal to the average of the inhalation waveform's peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR) and mean flow rate [i.e., AVG(PIFR, Mean)]. Using this technique, agreement with the in vivo data was acceptable with <15% relative differences averaged across the three regions considered for all inhalation waveforms. Defining a peripheral to central deposition ratio (P/C) based on alveolar and tracheobronchial compartments, respectively, large flow-rate-dependent differences were observed, which were not evident in the original 2D in vivo data. Conclusions: The agreement between the CFD predictions and in vivo data was dependent on accurate initial estimates of the PSD, emphasizing the need for a combination in vitro–in silico approach. Furthermore, use of the AVG(PIFR, Mean) value was identified as a potentially useful method

A framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates.

PubMed

Helbling, Damian E; Johnson, David R; Lee, Tae Kwon; Scheidegger, Andreas; Fenner, Kathrin

2015-03-01

The rates at which wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) microbial communities biotransform specific substrates can differ by orders of magnitude among WWTP communities. Differences in taxonomic compositions among WWTP communities may predict differences in the rates of some types of biotransformations. In this work, we present a novel framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates. We selected ten WWTPs with substantial variation in their environmental and operational metrics and measured the in situ ammonia biotransformation rate constants in nine of them. We isolated total RNA from samples from each WWTP and analyzed 16S rRNA sequence reads. We then developed multivariate models between the measured abundances of specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence reads and the ammonia biotransformation rate constants. We constructed model scenarios that systematically explored the effects of model regularization, model linearity and non-linearity, and aggregation of 16S rRNA sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) as a function of sequence dissimilarity threshold (SDT). A large percentage (greater than 80%) of model scenarios resulted in well-performing and significant models at intermediate SDTs of 0.13-0.14 and 0.26. The 16S rRNA sequences consistently selected into the well-performing and significant models at those SDTs were classified as Nitrosomonas and Nitrospira groups. We then extend the framework by applying it to the biotransformation rate constants of ten micropollutants measured in batch reactors seeded with the ten WWTP communities. We identified phylogenetic groups that were robustly selected into all well-performing and significant models constructed with biotransformation rates of isoproturon, propachlor, ranitidine, and venlafaxine. These phylogenetic groups can be used as predictive biomarkers of WWTP microbial community activity towards these specific

Quantitative Prediction of Rate Constants for Aqueous Racemization To Avoid Pointless Stereoselective Syntheses

PubMed Central

Ballard, Andrew; Ahmad, Hiwa O.; Narduolo, Stefania; Rosa, Lucy; Chand, Nikki; Cosgrove, David A.; Varkonyi, Peter; Asaad, Nabil; Tomasi, Simone

2017-01-01

Abstract Racemization has a large impact upon the biological properties of molecules but the chemical scope of compounds with known rate constants for racemization in aqueous conditions was hitherto limited. To address this remarkable blind spot, we have measured the kinetics for racemization of 28 compounds using circular dichroism and 1H NMR spectroscopy. We show that rate constants for racemization (measured by ourselves and others) correlate well with deprotonation energies from quantum mechanical (QM) and group contribution calculations. Such calculations thus provide predictions of the second‐order rate constants for general‐base‐catalyzed racemization that are usefully accurate. When applied to recent publications describing the stereoselective synthesis of compounds of purported biological value, the calculations reveal that racemization would be sufficiently fast to render these expensive syntheses pointless. PMID:29072355

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1977-01-01

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

PubMed

Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

2015-09-01

There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

Recombination rate predicts inversion size in Diptera.

PubMed Central

Cáceres, M; Barbadilla, A; Ruiz, A

1999-01-01

Most species of the Drosophila genus and other Diptera are polymorphic for paracentric inversions. A common observation is that successful inversions are of intermediate size. We test here the hypothesis that the selected property is the recombination length of inversions, not their physical length. If so, physical length of successful inversions should be negatively correlated with recombination rate across species. This prediction was tested by a comprehensive statistical analysis of inversion size and recombination map length in 12 Diptera species for which appropriate data are available. We found that (1) there is a wide variation in recombination map length among species; (2) physical length of successful inversions varies greatly among species and is inversely correlated with the species recombination map length; and (3) neither the among-species variation in inversion length nor the correlation are observed in unsuccessful inversions. The clear differences between successful and unsuccessful inversions point to natural selection as the most likely explanation for our results. Presumably the selective advantage of an inversion increases with its length, but so does its detrimental effect on fertility due to double crossovers. Our analysis provides the strongest and most extensive evidence in favor of the notion that the adaptive value of inversions stems from their effect on recombination. PMID:10471710

Next-Term Student Performance Prediction: A Recommender Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweeney, Mack; Rangwala, Huzefa; Lester, Jaime; Johri, Aditya

2016-01-01

An enduring issue in higher education is student retention to successful graduation. National statistics indicate that most higher education institutions have four-year degree completion rates around 50%, or just half of their student populations. While there are prediction models which illuminate what factors assist with college student success,…

Higher-order kinetic expansion of quantum dissipative dynamics: mapping quantum networks to kinetic networks.

PubMed

Wu, Jianlan; Cao, Jianshu

2013-07-28

We apply a new formalism to derive the higher-order quantum kinetic expansion (QKE) for studying dissipative dynamics in a general quantum network coupled with an arbitrary thermal bath. The dynamics of system population is described by a time-convoluted kinetic equation, where the time-nonlocal rate kernel is systematically expanded of the order of off-diagonal elements of the system Hamiltonian. In the second order, the rate kernel recovers the expression of the noninteracting-blip approximation method. The higher-order corrections in the rate kernel account for the effects of the multi-site quantum coherence and the bath relaxation. In a quantum harmonic bath, the rate kernels of different orders are analytically derived. As demonstrated by four examples, the higher-order QKE can reliably predict quantum dissipative dynamics, comparing well with the hierarchic equation approach. More importantly, the higher-order rate kernels can distinguish and quantify distinct nontrivial quantum coherent effects, such as long-range energy transfer from quantum tunneling and quantum interference arising from the phase accumulation of interactions.

High-Frequency Heart Rate Variability Reactivity and Trait Worry Interact to Predict the Development of Sleep Disturbances in Response to a Naturalistic Stressor.

PubMed

MacNeil, Sasha; Deschênes, Sonya S; Caldwell, Warren; Brouillard, Melanie; Dang-Vu, Thien-Thanh; Gouin, Jean-Philippe

2017-12-01

High-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV) reactivity was proposed as a vulnerability factor for stress-induced sleep disturbances. Its effect may be amplified among individuals with high trait worry or sleep reactivity. This study evaluated whether HF-HRV reactivity to a worry induction, sleep reactivity, and trait worry predict increases in sleep disturbances in response to academic stress, a naturalistic stressor. A longitudinal study following 102 undergraduate students during an academic semester with well-defined periods of lower and higher academic stress was conducted. HF-HRV reactivity to a worry induction, trait worry using the Penn State Worry Questionnaire, and sleep reactivity using the Ford Insomnia Stress Reactivity Test were measured during the low stress period. Sleep disturbances using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index were assessed twice during the lower stress period and three times during the higher stress period. Greater reductions in HF-HRV in response to the worry induction predicted increases in sleep disturbances from the lower to the higher academic stress period. Trait worry moderated this association: individuals with both higher trait worry and greater HF-HRV reactivity to worry had larger increases in stress-related sleep disturbances over time, compared to participants with lower trait worry and HF-HRV reactivity. A similar, but marginally significant effect was found for sleep reactivity. This study supports the role of HF-HRV reactivity as a vulnerability factor for stress-induced sleep disturbances. The combination of high trait worry and high HF-HRV reactivity to worry might identify a subgroup of individuals most vulnerable to stress-related sleep disturbances.

Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

2007-01-01

Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

1988-01-01

This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

Sediment rating curve & Co. - a contest of prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francke, T.; Zimmermann, A.

2012-04-01

In spite of the recent technological progress in sediment monitoring, often the calculation of sediment yield (SSY) still relies on intermittent measurements because of the use of historic records, instrument-failure in continuous recording or financial constraints. Therefore, available measurements are usually inter- and even extrapolated using the sediment rating curve approach, which uses continuously available discharge data to predict sediment concentrations. Extending this idea by further aspects like the inclusion of other predictors (e.g. rainfall, discharge-characteristics, etc.), or the consideration of prediction uncertainty led to a variety of new methods. Now, with approaches such as Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Tree-based regression, GLMs, etc., the user is left to decide which method to apply. Trying multiple approaches is usually not an option, as considerable effort and expertise may be needed for their application. To establish a helpful guideline in selecting the most appropriate method for SSY-computation, we initiated a study to compare and rank available methods. Depending on problem attributes like hydrological and sediment regime, number of samples, sampling scheme, and availability of ancillary predictors, the performance of different methods is compared. Our expertise allowed us to "register" Random Forests, Quantile Regression Forests and GLMs for the contest. To include many different methods and ensure their sophisticated use we invite scientists that are willing to benchmark their favourite method(s) with us. The more diverse the participating methods are, the more exciting the contest will be.

Rabies Vaccination: Higher Failure Rates in Imported Dogs than in those Vaccinated in Italy.

PubMed

Rota Nodari, E; Alonso, S; Mancin, M; De Nardi, M; Hudson-Cooke, S; Veggiato, C; Cattoli, G; De Benedictis, P

2017-03-01

The current European Union (EU) legislation decrees that pets entering the EU from a rabies-infected third country have to obtain a satisfactory virus-neutralizing antibody level, while those moving within the EU require only rabies vaccination as the risk of moving a rabid pet within the EU is considered negligible. A number of factors driving individual variations in dog vaccine response have been previously reported, including a high rate of vaccine failure in puppies, especially those subject to commercial transport. A total of 21 001 observations collected from dogs (2006-2012) vaccinated in compliance with the current EU regulations were statistically analysed to assess the effect of different risk factors related to rabies vaccine efficacy. Within this framework, we were able to compare the vaccination failure rate in a group of dogs entering the Italian border from EU and non-EU countries to those vaccinated in Italy prior to international travel. Our analysis identified that cross-breeds and two breed categories showed high vaccine success rates, while Beagles and Boxers were the least likely to show a successful response to vaccination (88.82% and 90.32%, respectively). Our analysis revealed diverse performances among the commercially available vaccines, in terms of serological peak windows, and marked differences according to geographical area. Of note, we found a higher vaccine failure rate in imported dogs (13.15%) than in those vaccinated in Italy (5.89%). Our findings suggest that the choice of vaccine may influence the likelihood of an animal achieving a protective serological level and that time from vaccination to sampling should be considered when interpreting serological results. A higher vaccine failure in imported compared to Italian dogs highlights the key role that border controls still have in assessing the full compliance of pet movements with EU legislation to minimize the risk of rabies being reintroduced into a disease-free area. �

Using CFD Techniques to Predict Slosh Force Frequency and Damping Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsell, Brandon; Gangadharan, Sathya; Chatman, Yadira; Sudermann, James

2009-01-01

Resonant effects and energy dissipation due to sloshing fuel inside propellant tanks are problems that arise in the initial design of any spacecraft or launch vehicle. A faster and more reliable method for calculating these effects during the design stages is needed. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques, a model of these fuel tanks can be created and used to predict important parameters such as resonant slosh frequency and damping rate. This initial study addresses the case of free surface slosh. Future studies will focus on creating models for tanks fitted with propellant management devices (PMD) such as diaphragms and baffles.

Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

PubMed

Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

2016-01-01

Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Chronnectome fingerprinting: Identifying individuals and predicting higher cognitive functions using dynamic brain connectivity patterns.

PubMed

Liu, Jin; Liao, Xuhong; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2018-02-01

The human brain is a large, interacting dynamic network, and its architecture of coupling among brain regions varies across time (termed the "chronnectome"). However, very little is known about whether and how the dynamic properties of the chronnectome can characterize individual uniqueness, such as identifying individuals as a "fingerprint" of the brain. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Human Connectome Project (N = 105) and a sliding time-window dynamic network analysis approach to systematically examine individual time-varying properties of the chronnectome. We revealed stable and remarkable individual variability in three dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity (i.e., strength, stability, and variability), which was mainly distributed in three higher order cognitive systems (i.e., default mode, dorsal attention, and fronto-parietal) and in two primary systems (i.e., visual and sensorimotor). Intriguingly, the spatial patterns of these dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity could successfully identify individuals with high accuracy and could further significantly predict individual higher cognitive performance (e.g., fluid intelligence and executive function), which was primarily contributed by the higher order cognitive systems. Together, our findings highlight that the chronnectome captures inherent functional dynamics of individual brain networks and provides implications for individualized characterization of health and disease. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Predicting the rate of change in timber value for forest stands infested with gypsy moth

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick

1982-01-01

Presents a method for estimating the potential impact of gypsy moth attacks on forest-stand value. Robust regression analysis is used to develop an equation for predicting the rate of change in timber value from easy-to-measure key characteristics of stand condition.

Adjusted hospital death rates: a potential screen for quality of medical care.

PubMed

Dubois, R W; Brook, R H; Rogers, W H

1987-09-01

Increased economic pressure on hospitals has accelerated the need to develop a screening tool for identifying hospitals that potentially provide poor quality care. Based upon data from 93 hospitals and 205,000 admissions, we used a multiple regression model to adjust the hospitals crude death rate. The adjustment process used age, origin of patient from the emergency department or nursing home, and a hospital case mix index based on DRGs (diagnostic related groups). Before adjustment, hospital death rates ranged from 0.3 to 5.8 per 100 admissions. After adjustment, hospital death ratios ranged from 0.36 to 1.36 per 100 (actual death rate divided by predicted death rate). Eleven hospitals (12 per cent) were identified where the actual death rate exceeded the predicted death rate by more than two standard deviations. In nine hospitals (10 per cent), the predicted death rate exceeded the actual death rate by a similar statistical margin. The 11 hospitals with higher than predicted death rates may provide inadequate quality of care or have uniquely ill patient populations. The adjusted death rate model needs to be validated and generalized before it can be used routinely to screen hospitals. However, the remaining large differences in observed versus predicted death rates lead us to believe that important differences in hospital performance may exist.

Effects of Stopping Ions and LET Fluctuations on Soft Error Rate Prediction.

DOE PAGES

Weeden-Wright, S. L.; King, Michael Patrick; Hooten, N. C.; ...

2015-02-01

Variability in energy deposition from stopping ions and LET fluctuations is quantified for specific radiation environments. When compared to predictions using average LET via CREME96, LET fluctuations lead to an order-of-magnitude difference in effective flux and a nearly 4x decrease in predicted soft error rate (SER) in an example calculation performed on a commercial 65 nm SRAM. The large LET fluctuations reported here will be even greater for the smaller sensitive volumes that are characteristic of highly scaled technologies. End-of-range effects of stopping ions do not lead to significant inaccuracies in radiation environments with low solar activity unless the sensitivevolumemore » thickness is 100 μm or greater. In contrast, end-of-range effects for stopping ions lead to significant inaccuracies for sensitive- volume thicknesses less than 10 μm in radiation environments with high solar activity.« less

Higher mortality rates amongst emergency patients admitted to hospital at weekends reflect a lower probability of admission.

PubMed

Meacock, Rachel; Anselmi, Laura; Kristensen, Søren Rud; Doran, Tim; Sutton, Matt

2017-01-01

Objective Patients admitted as emergencies to hospitals at the weekend have higher death rates than patients admitted on weekdays. This may be because the restricted service availability at weekends leads to selection of patients with greater average severity of illness. We examined volumes and rates of hospital admissions and deaths across the week for patients presenting to emergency services through two routes: (a) hospital Accident and Emergency departments, which are open throughout the week; and (b) services in the community, for which availability is more restricted at weekends. Method Retrospective observational study of all 140 non-specialist acute hospital Trusts in England analyzing 12,670,788 Accident and Emergency attendances and 4,656,586 emergency admissions (940,859 direct admissions from primary care and 3,715,727 admissions through Accident and Emergency) between April 2013 and February 2014.Emergency attendances and admissions to hospital and deaths in any hospital within 30 days of attendance or admission were compared for weekdays and weekends. Results Similar numbers of patients attended Accident and Emergency on weekends and weekdays. There were similar numbers of deaths amongst patients attending Accident and Emergency on weekend days compared with weekdays (378.0 vs. 388.3). Attending Accident and Emergency at the weekend was not associated with a significantly higher probability of death (risk-adjusted OR: 1.010). Proportionately fewer patients who attended Accident and Emergency at weekend were admitted to hospital (27.5% vs. 30.0%) and it is only amongst the subset of patients attending Accident and Emergency who were selected for admission to hospital that the probability of dying was significantly higher at the weekend (risk-adjusted OR: 1.054). The average volume of direct admissions from services in the community was 61% lower on weekend days compared to weekdays (1317 vs. 3404). There were fewer deaths following direct admission on

Effect of bacterial growth rate on bacteriophage population growth rate.

PubMed

Nabergoj, Dominik; Modic, Petra; Podgornik, Aleš

2018-04-01

It is important to understand how physiological state of the host influence propagation of bacteriophages (phages), due to the potential higher phage production needs in the future. In our study, we tried to elucidate the effect of bacterial growth rate on adsorption constant (δ), latent period (L), burst size (b), and bacteriophage population growth rate (λ). As a model system, a well-studied phage T4 and Escherichia coli K-12 as a host was used. Bacteria were grown in a continuous culture operating at dilution rates in the range between 0.06 and 0.98 hr -1 . It was found that the burst size increases linearly from 8 PFU·cell -1 to 89 PFU·cell -1 with increase in bacteria growth rate. On the other hand, adsorption constant and latent period were both decreasing from 2.6∙10 -9  ml·min -1 and 80 min to reach limiting values of 0.5 × 10 -9  ml·min -1 and 27 min at higher growth rates, respectively. Both trends were mathematically described with Michaelis-Menten based type of equation and reasons for such form are discussed. By applying selected equations, a mathematical equation for prediction of bacteriophage population growth rate as a function of dilution rate was derived, reaching values around 8 hr -1 at highest dilution rate. Interestingly, almost identical description can be obtained using much simpler Monod type equation and possible reasons for this finding are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increase in the CO2 exchange rate of leaves of Ilex rotunda with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration in an urban canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, M.; Gyokusen, Koichiro; Saito, Akira

It was found that the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in an urban canyon in Fukuoka city, Japan during August 1997 was about 30 µmol mol-1 higher than that in the suburbs. When fully exposed to sunlight, in situ the rate of photosynthesis in single leaves of Ilex rotunda planted in the urban canyon was higher when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was elevated. A biochemically based model was able to predict the in situ rate of photosynthesis well. The model also predicted an increase in the daily CO2 exchange rate for leaves in the urban canyon with an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, in situ such an increase in the daily CO2 exchange rate may be offset by diminished sunlight, a higher air temperature and a lower relative humidity. Thus, the daily CO2 exchange rate predicted using the model based soleley on the environmental conditions prevailing in the urban canyon was lower than that predicted based only on environmental factors found in the suburbs.

Risk-adjusted cesarean section rates for the assessment of physician performance in Taiwan: a population-based study.

PubMed

Tang, Chao-Hsiun; Wang, Han-I; Hsu, Chun-Sen; Su, Hung-Wen; Chen, Mei-Ju; Lin, Herng-Ching

2006-10-09

Over the past decade, about one-third of all births nationwide in Taiwan were delivered by cesarean section (CS). Previous studies in the US and Europe have documented the need for risk adjustment for fairer comparisons among providers. In this study, we set out to determine the impact that adjustment for patient-specific risk factors has on CS among different physicians in Taiwan. There were 172,511 live births which occurred in either hospitals or obstetrics/gynecology clinics between 1 January and 31 December 2003, and for whom birth certificate data could be linked with National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, available as the sample for this study. Physicians were divided into four equivalent groups based upon the quartile distribution of their crude (actual) CS rates. Stepwise logistic regressions were conducted to develop a predictive model and to determine the expected (risk-adjusted) CS rate and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each physician. The actual rates were then compared with the expected CS rates to see the proportion of physicians whose actual rates were below, within, or above the predicted CI in each quartile. The proportion of physicians whose CS rates were above the predicted CI increased as the quartile moved to the higher level. However, more than half of the physicians whose actual rates were higher than the predicted CI were not in the highest quartile. Conversely, there were some physicians (40 of 258 physicians) in the highest quartile who were actually providing obstetric care that was appropriate to the risk. When a stricter standard was applied to the assessment of physician performance by excluding physicians in quartile 4 for predicting CS rates, as many as 60% of physicians were found to have higher CS rates than the predicted CI, and indeed, the CS rates of no physicians in either quartile 3 or quartile 4 were below the predicted CI. Overall, our study found that the comparison of unadjusted CS rates might not provide a valid

Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising.

PubMed

Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube.

Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising

PubMed Central

Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M.; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

2017-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube. PMID:29163251

Incorporating geographical factors with artificial neural networks to predict reference values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The measurement of the Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) value is a standard procedure performed during a typical blood test. In order to formulate a unified standard of establishing reference ESR values, this paper presents a novel prediction model in which local normal ESR values and corresponding geographical factors are used to predict reference ESR values using multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN). Methods and findings Local normal ESR values were obtained from hospital data, while geographical factors that include altitude, sunshine hours, relative humidity, temperature and precipitation were obtained from the National Geographical Data Information Centre in China. The results show that predicted values are statistically in agreement with measured values. Model results exhibit significant agreement between training data and test data. Consequently, the model is used to predict the unseen local reference ESR values. Conclusions Reference ESR values can be established with geographical factors by using artificial intelligence techniques. ANN is an effective method for simulating and predicting reference ESR values because of its ability to model nonlinear and complex relationships. PMID:23497145

Incorporating geographical factors with artificial neural networks to predict reference values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate.

PubMed

Yang, Qingsheng; Mwenda, Kevin M; Ge, Miao

2013-03-12

The measurement of the Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) value is a standard procedure performed during a typical blood test. In order to formulate a unified standard of establishing reference ESR values, this paper presents a novel prediction model in which local normal ESR values and corresponding geographical factors are used to predict reference ESR values using multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN). Local normal ESR values were obtained from hospital data, while geographical factors that include altitude, sunshine hours, relative humidity, temperature and precipitation were obtained from the National Geographical Data Information Centre in China.The results show that predicted values are statistically in agreement with measured values. Model results exhibit significant agreement between training data and test data. Consequently, the model is used to predict the unseen local reference ESR values. Reference ESR values can be established with geographical factors by using artificial intelligence techniques. ANN is an effective method for simulating and predicting reference ESR values because of its ability to model nonlinear and complex relationships.

Faster eating rates are associated with higher energy intakes during an Ad libitum meal, higher BMI and greater adiposity among 4.5 year old children – Results from the GUSTO cohort

PubMed Central

Fogel, Anna; Goh, Ai Ting; Fries, Lisa R.; Sadananthan, Suresh Anand; Velan, S. Sendhil; Michael, Navin; Tint, Mya Thway; Fortier, Marielle Valerie; Chan, Mei Jun; Toh, Jia Ying; Chong, Yap-Seng; Tan, Kok Hian; Yap, Fabian; Shek, Lynette P.; Meaney, Michael J.; Broekman, Birit F.P.; Lee, Yung Seng; Godfrey, Keith M.; Chong, Mary Foong Fong; Forde, Ciarán Gerard

2017-01-01

Faster eating rates are associated with increased energy intake, but less is known about the relationship between children’s eating rate, food intake and adiposity. We examined whether children who eat faster consume more energy and whether this is associated with higher weight status and adiposity. We hypothesized that eating rate mediates the relationship between child weight and ad libitum energy intake. Children (N=386) from the Growing Up in Singapore towards Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) cohort participated in a video-recorded ad libitum lunch at 4.5 years to measure acute energy intake. Videos were coded for three eating-behaviours (bites, chews and swallows) to derive a measure of eating rate (g/min). Body mass index (BMI) and anthropometric indices of adiposity were measured. A subset of children underwent MRI scanning (n=153) to measure abdominal subcutaneous and visceral adiposity. Children above/below the median eating rate were categorised as slower and faster eaters, and compared across body composition measures. There was a strong positive relationship between eating rate and energy intake (r=0.61, p<0.001) and a positive linear relationship between eating rate and children’s BMI status. Faster eaters consumed 75% more calories than slower eating children (Δ131 kcal, 95%CI [107.6, 154.4], p<0.001), and had higher whole-body (p<0.05) and subcutaneous abdominal adiposity (Δ118.3 cc; 95%CI [24.0, 212.7], p=0.014). Mediation analysis showed that eating rate mediates the link between child weight and energy intake during a meal (b=13.59, 95% CI [7.48, 21.83]). Children who ate faster had higher energy intake, and this was associated with increased BMIz and adiposity. PMID:28462734

Higher rates and clustering of abnormal lipids, obesity, and diabetes mellitus in psoriatic arthritis compared with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Labitigan, Monalyn; Bahče-Altuntas, Asena; Kremer, Joel M; Reed, George; Greenberg, Jeff D; Jordan, Nicole; Putterman, Chaim; Broder, Anna

2014-04-01

We compared the prevalence and the clustering of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) components (obese body mass index [BMI; ≥30 kg/m(2) ], hypertriglyceridemia, low high-density lipids, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus) in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) Registry. We included CORRONA participants with a rheumatologist-confirmed clinical diagnosis of PsA or RA with complete data. We used a modified definition of MetS that did not include insulin resistance, waist circumference, or blood pressure measurements. Logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, and race. In the overall CORRONA population, the rates of diabetes mellitus and obesity were significantly higher in PsA compared with RA. In 294 PsA and 1,162 RA participants who had lipids measured, the overall prevalence of MetS in PsA versus RA was 27% versus 19%. The odds ratio (OR) of MetS in PsA versus RA was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.96, P = 0.02). The prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia was higher in PsA compared with RA (38% versus 28%; OR 1.51 [95% CI 1.15-1.98], P = 0.003). The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was also higher in PsA compared with RA (15% versus 11%; OR 1.56 [95% CI 1.07-2.28], P = 0.02) in the adjusted model. Similarly, higher rates of hypertriglyceridemia and diabetes mellitus were observed in the subgroup of PsA and RA patients with obese BMI. Compared with RA, PsA is associated with higher rates of obesity, diabetes mellitus, and hypertriglyceridemia. Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Longer guts and higher food quality increase energy intake in migratory swans.

PubMed

van Gils, Jan A; Beekman, Jan H; Coehoorn, Pieter; Corporaal, Els; Dekkers, Ten; Klaassen, Marcel; van Kraaij, Rik; de Leeuw, Rinze; de Vries, Peter P

2008-11-01

1. Within the broad field of optimal foraging, it is increasingly acknowledged that animals often face digestive constraints rather than constraints on rates of food collection. This therefore calls for a formalization of how animals could optimize food absorption rates. 2. Here we generate predictions from a simple graphical optimal digestion model for foragers that aim to maximize their (true) metabolizable food intake over total time (i.e. including nonforaging bouts) under a digestive constraint. 3. The model predicts that such foragers should maintain a constant food retention time, even if gut length or food quality changes. For phenotypically flexible foragers, which are able to change the size of their digestive machinery, this means that an increase in gut length should go hand in hand with an increase in gross intake rate. It also means that better quality food should be digested more efficiently. 4. These latter two predictions are tested in a large avian long-distance migrant, the Bewick's swan (Cygnus columbianus bewickii), feeding on grasslands in its Dutch wintering quarters. 5. Throughout winter, free-ranging Bewick's swans, growing a longer gut and experiencing improved food quality, increased their gross intake rate (i.e. bite rate) and showed a higher digestive efficiency. These responses were in accordance with the model and suggest maintenance of a constant food retention time. 6. These changes doubled the birds' absorption rate. Had only food quality changed (and not gut length), then absorption rate would have increased by only 67%; absorption rate would have increased by only 17% had only gut length changed (and not food quality). 7. The prediction that gross intake rate should go up with gut length parallels the mechanism included in some proximate models of foraging that feeding motivation scales inversely to gut fullness. We plea for a tighter integration between ultimate and proximate foraging models.

Parent-rated externalizing behavior in preschoolers: the predictive utility of structured interviews, teacher reports, and classroom observations.

PubMed

Doctoroff, Greta L; Arnold, David H

2004-12-01

This study investigated multiple forms of home and school assessment as predictors of parent-rated behavior problems across a preschool year. Participants were a community sample of 79 preschool children, their parents, and their teachers. Parent ratings of behavior problems were obtained toward the beginning of the school year and approximately 6 months later. Behavior problems were also assessed early in the school year using parent structured interviews, teacher-rating scales, and classroom observations of problem and prosocial behavior. Consistent with hypotheses, each assessment method significantly predicted year-end parent ratings of behavior problems, even above initial ratings.

Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women.

PubMed

Lupis, Sarah B; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M

2014-11-01

While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6±1.7 yr) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p>.23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β=0.41, p=.04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β=0.67 p=.004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β=0.51, p=.033; β=0.46, p=.066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p>.23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health-promoting ways of

Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women

PubMed Central

Lupis, Sarah B.; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M.

2014-01-01

While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6+/−1.7 yrs.) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p > .23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β = 0.41, p = .04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β = 0.67 p = .004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β = 0.51, p = .033; β = 0.46, p = .066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p > .23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health

How personal resources predict work engagement and self-rated performance among construction workers: a social cognitive perspective.

PubMed

Lorente, Laura; Salanova, Marisa; Martínez, Isabel M; Vera, María

2014-06-01

Traditionally, research focussing on psychosocial factors in the construction industry has focused mainly on the negative aspects of health and on results such as occupational accidents. This study, however, focuses on the specific relationships among the different positive psychosocial factors shared by construction workers that could be responsible for occupational well-being and outcomes such as performance. The main objective of this study was to test whether personal resources predict self-rated job performance through job resources and work engagement. Following the predictions of Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory and the motivational process of the Job Demands-Resources Model, we expect that the relationship between personal resources and performance will be fully mediated by job resources and work engagement. The sample consists of 228 construction workers. Structural equation modelling supports the research model. Personal resources (i.e. self-efficacy, mental and emotional competences) play a predicting role in the perception of job resources (i.e. job control and supervisor social support), which in turn leads to work engagement and self-rated performance. This study emphasises the crucial role that personal resources play in determining how people perceive job resources by determining the levels of work engagement and, hence, their self-rated job performance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Systematic literature review shows that appetite rating does not predict energy intake.

PubMed

Holt, Guy M; Owen, Lauren J; Till, Sophie; Cheng, Yanying; Grant, Vicky A; Harden, Charlotte J; Corfe, Bernard M

2017-11-02

Ratings of appetite are commonly used to assess appetite modification following an intervention. Subjectively rated appetite is a widely employed proxy measure for energy intake (EI), measurement of which requires greater time and resources. However, the validity of appetite as a reliable predictor of EI has not yet been reviewed systematically. This literature search identified studies that quantified both appetite ratings and EI. Outcomes were predefined as: (1) agreement between self-reported appetite scores and EI; (2) no agreement between self-reported appetitescores and EI. The presence of direct statistical comparison between the endpoints, intervention type and study population were also recorded. 462 papers were included in this review. Appetite scores failed to correspond with EI in 51.3% of the total studies. Only 6% of all studies evaluated here reported a direct statistical comparison between appetite scores and EI. χ 2 analysis demonstrated that any relationship between EI and appetite was independent of study type stratification by age, gender or sample size. The very substantive corpus reviewed allows us to conclude that self-reported appetite ratings of appetite do not reliably predict EI. Caution should be exercised when drawing conclusions based from self-reported appetite scores in relation to prospective EI.

A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

Treesearch

D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

2011-01-01

Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

Higher dose rate Gamma Knife radiosurgery may provide earlier and longer-lasting pain relief for patients with trigeminal neuralgia.

PubMed

Lee, John Y K; Sandhu, Sukhmeet; Miller, Denise; Solberg, Timothy; Dorsey, Jay F; Alonso-Basanta, Michelle

2015-10-01

Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS) utilizes cobalt-60 as its radiation source, and thus dose rate varies as the fixed source decays over its half-life of approximately 5.26 years. This natural decay results in increasing treatment times when delivering the same cumulative dose. It is also possible, however, that the biological effective dose may change based on this dose rate even if the total dose is kept constant. Because patients are generally treated in a uniform manner, radiosurgery for trigeminal neuralgia (TN) represents a clinical model whereby biological efficacy can be tested. The authors hypothesized that higher dose rates would result in earlier and more complete pain relief but only if measured with a sensitive pain assessment tool. One hundred thirty-three patients were treated with the Gamma Knife Model 4C unit at a single center by a single neurosurgeon during a single cobalt life cycle from January 2006 to May 2012. All patients were treated with 80 Gy with a single 4-mm isocenter without blocking. Using an output factor of 0.87, dose rates ranged from 1.28 to 2.95 Gy/min. The Brief Pain Inventory (BPI)-Facial was administered before the procedure and at the first follow-up office visit 1 month from the procedure (mean 1.3 months). Phone calls were made to evaluate patients after their procedures as part of a retrospective study. Univariate and multivariate linear regression was performed on several independent variables, including sex, age in deciles, diagnosis, follow-up duration, prior surgery, and dose rate. In the short-term analysis (mean 1.3 months), patients' self-reported pain intensity at its worst was significantly correlated with dose rate on multivariate analysis (p = 0.028). Similarly, patients' self-reported interference with activities of daily living was closely correlated with dose rate on multivariate analysis (p = 0.067). A 1 Gy/min decrease in dose rate resulted in a 17% decrease in pain intensity at its worst and a 22% decrease

Predicting permeability of regular tissue engineering scaffolds: scaling analysis of pore architecture, scaffold length, and fluid flow rate effects.

PubMed

Rahbari, A; Montazerian, H; Davoodi, E; Homayoonfar, S

2017-02-01

The main aim of this research is to numerically obtain the permeability coefficient in the cylindrical scaffolds. For this purpose, a mathematical analysis was performed to derive an equation for desired porosity in terms of morphological parameters. Then, the considered cylindrical geometries were modeled and the permeability coefficient was calculated according to the velocity and pressure drop values based on the Darcy's law. In order to validate the accuracy of the present numerical solution, the obtained permeability coefficient was compared with the published experimental data. It was observed that this model can predict permeability with the utmost accuracy. Then, the effect of geometrical parameters including porosity, scaffold pore structure, unit cell size, and length of the scaffolds as well as entrance mass flow rate on the permeability of porous structures was studied. Furthermore, a parametric study with scaling laws analysis of sample length and mass flow rate effects on the permeability showed good fit to the obtained data. It can be concluded that the sensitivity of permeability is more noticeable at higher porosities. The present approach can be used to characterize and optimize the scaffold microstructure due to the necessity of cell growth and transferring considerations.

Comparative Study on Prediction Effects of Short Fatigue Crack Propagation Rate by Two Different Calculation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bing; Liao, Zhen; Qin, Yahang; Wu, Yayun; Liang, Sai; Xiao, Shoune; Yang, Guangwu; Zhu, Tao

2017-05-01

To describe the complicated nonlinear process of the fatigue short crack evolution behavior, especially the change of the crack propagation rate, two different calculation methods are applied. The dominant effective short fatigue crack propagation rates are calculated based on the replica fatigue short crack test with nine smooth funnel-shaped specimens and the observation of the replica films according to the effective short fatigue cracks principle. Due to the fast decay and the nonlinear approximation ability of wavelet analysis, the self-learning ability of neural network, and the macroscopic searching and global optimization of genetic algorithm, the genetic wavelet neural network can reflect the implicit complex nonlinear relationship when considering multi-influencing factors synthetically. The effective short fatigue cracks and the dominant effective short fatigue crack are simulated and compared by the Genetic Wavelet Neural Network. The simulation results show that Genetic Wavelet Neural Network is a rational and available method for studying the evolution behavior of fatigue short crack propagation rate. Meanwhile, a traditional data fitting method for a short crack growth model is also utilized for fitting the test data. It is reasonable and applicable for predicting the growth rate. Finally, the reason for the difference between the prediction effects by these two methods is interpreted.

USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates

PubMed Central

2004-01-01

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases. PMID:15109418

Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition.

PubMed

Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

2015-11-01

Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers' interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R(2) = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R(2) = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R(2) = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age. © The Author(s) 2014.

Discrepancies between self and observer ratings of depression. The relationship to demographic, clinical and personality variables.

PubMed

Enns, M W; Larsen, D K; Cox, B J

2000-10-01

The observer-rated Hamilton depression scale (HamD) and the self-report Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) are among the most commonly used rating scales for depression, and both have well demonstrated reliability and validity. However, many depressed subjects have discrepant scores on these two assessment methods. The present study evaluated the ability of demographic, clinical and personality factors to account for the discrepancies observed between BDI and HamD ratings. The study group consisted of 94 SCID-diagnosed outpatients with a current major depressive disorder. Subjects were rated with the 21-item HamD and completed the BDI and the NEO-Five Factor Inventory. Younger age, higher educational attainment, and depressive subtype (atypical, non-melancholic) were predictive of higher BDI scores relative to HamD observer ratings. In addition, high neuroticism, low extraversion and low agreeableness were associated with higher endorsement of depressive symptoms on the BDI relative to the HamD. In general, these predictive variables showed a greater ability to explain discrepancies between self and observer ratings of psychological symptoms of depression compared to somatic symptoms of depression. The study does not determine which aspects of neuroticism and extraversion contribute to the observed BDI/HamD discrepancies. Depression ratings obtained with the BDI and HamD are frequently discordant and a number of patient characteristics robustly predict the discrepancy between these two rating methods. The value of multi-modal assessment in the conduct of research on depressive disorders is re-affirmed.

Prediction of work metabolism from heart rate measurements in forest work: some practical methodological issues.

PubMed

Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Auger, Isabelle; Leone, Mario

2015-01-01

Individual heart rate (HR) to workload relationships were determined using 93 submaximal step-tests administered to 26 healthy participants attending physical activities in a university training centre (laboratory study) and 41 experienced forest workers (field study). Predicted maximum aerobic capacity (MAC) was compared to measured MAC from a maximal treadmill test (laboratory study) to test the effect of two age-predicted maximum HR Equations (220-age and 207-0.7 × age) and two clothing insulation levels (0.4 and 0.91 clo) during the step-test. Work metabolism (WM) estimated from forest work HR was compared against concurrent work V̇O2 measurements while taking into account the HR thermal component. Results show that MAC and WM can be accurately predicted from work HR measurements and simple regression models developed in this study (1% group mean prediction bias and up to 25% expected prediction bias for a single individual). Clothing insulation had no impact on predicted MAC nor age-predicted maximum HR equations. Practitioner summary: This study sheds light on four practical methodological issues faced by practitioners regarding the use of HR methodology to assess WM in actual work environments. More specifically, the effect of wearing work clothes and the use of two different maximum HR prediction equations on the ability of a submaximal step-test to assess MAC are examined, as well as the accuracy of using an individual's step-test HR to workload relationship to predict WM from HR data collected during actual work in the presence of thermal stress.

Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

2016-01-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11-812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O'Quigley's method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients.

Strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates: outcomes of a nationwide cross-sectional survey of UK general practice

PubMed Central

Teare, M Dawn; Dexter, Matthew; Siriwardena, A Niroshan; Read, Robert C

2012-01-01

Objective To identify practice strategies associated with higher flu vaccination rates in primary care. Design Logistic regression analysis of data from a cross-sectional online questionnaire. Setting 795 general practices across England. Participants 569 practice managers, 335 nursing staff and 107 general practitioners. Primary outcome measures Flu vaccination rates achieved by each practice in different groups of at-risk patients. Results 7 independent factors associated with higher vaccine uptake were identified. Having a lead staff member for planning the flu campaign and producing a written report of practice performance predicted an 8% higher vaccination rate for at-risk patients aged <65 years (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.71). These strategies, plus sending a personal invitation to all eligible patients and only stopping vaccination when Quality and Outcomes Framework targets are reached, predicted a 7% higher vaccination rate (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.92) in patients aged ≥65 years. Using a lead member of staff for identifying eligible patients, with either a modified manufacturer's or in-house search programme for interrogating the practice IT system, independently predicted a 4% higher vaccination rate in patients aged ≥65 years (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.41/OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.40). The provision of flu vaccine by midwives was associated with a 4% higher vaccination rate in pregnant women (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.40). Conclusions Clear leadership, effective communication about performance and methods used to identify and contact eligible patients were independently associated with significantly higher rates of flu vaccination. Financial targets appear to incentivise practices to work harder to maximise seasonal influenza vaccine uptake. The strategies identified here could help primary care providers to substantially increase their seasonal flu vaccination rates towards or even above the Chief Medical Officer's targets. PMID:22581793

Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

2011-01-01

This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

2009-08-01

Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

Prediction and optimization of the recovery rate in centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piao, Linfeng; Park, Hyungmin; Jo, Chris

2016-11-01

We present a theoretical model of the recovery rate of platelet and white blood cell in the process of centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP). For the practically used conditions in the field, the separation process is modeled as a one-dimensional particle sedimentation; a quasi-linear partial differential equation is derived based on the kinematic-wave theory. This is solved to determine the interface positions between supernatant-suspension and suspension-sediment, used to estimate the recovery rate of the plasma. While correcting the Brown's hypothesis (1989) claiming that the platelet recovery is linearly proportional to that of plasma, we propose a new correlation model for prediction of the platelet recovery, which is a function of the volume of whole blood, centrifugal acceleration and time. For a range of practical parameters, such as hematocrit, volume of whole blood and centrifugation (time and acceleration), the predicted recovery rate shows a good agreement with available clinical data. We propose that this model is further used to optimize the preparation method of PRP that satisfies the customized case. Supported by a Grant (MPSS-CG-2016-02) through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

Variability in case-mix adjusted in-hospital cardiac arrest rates.

PubMed

Merchant, Raina M; Yang, Lin; Becker, Lance B; Berg, Robert A; Nadkarni, Vinay; Nichol, Graham; Carr, Brendan G; Mitra, Nandita; Bradley, Steven M; Abella, Benjamin S; Groeneveld, Peter W

2012-02-01

It is unknown how in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) rates vary across hospitals and predictors of variability. Measure variability in IHCA across hospitals and determine if hospital-level factors predict differences in case-mix adjusted event rates. Get with the Guidelines Resuscitation (GWTG-R) (n=433 hospitals) was used to identify IHCA events between 2003 and 2007. The American Hospital Association survey, Medicare, and US Census were used to obtain detailed information about GWTG-R hospitals. Adult patients with IHCA. Case-mix-adjusted predicted IHCA rates were calculated for each hospital and variability across hospitals was compared. A regression model was used to predict case-mix adjusted event rates using hospital measures of volume, nurse-to-bed ratio, percent intensive care unit beds, palliative care services, urban designation, volume of black patients, income, trauma designation, academic designation, cardiac surgery capability, and a patient risk score. We evaluated 103,117 adult IHCAs at 433 US hospitals. The case-mix adjusted IHCA event rate was highly variable across hospitals, median 1/1000 bed days (interquartile range: 0.7 to 1.3 events/1000 bed days). In a multivariable regression model, case-mix adjusted IHCA event rates were highest in urban hospitals [rate ratio (RR), 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-1.3; P=0.03] and hospitals with higher proportions of black patients (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P=0.01) and lower in larger hospitals (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.45-0.66; P<0.0001). Case-mix adjusted IHCA event rates varied considerably across hospitals. Several hospital factors associated with higher IHCA event rates were consistent with factors often linked with lower hospital quality of care.

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister (1998) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Comparison of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in healthy nonobese and obese adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Frankenfield, David; Roth-Yousey, Lori; Compher, Charlene

2005-05-01

An assessment of energy needs is a necessary component in the development and evaluation of a nutrition care plan. The metabolic rate can be measured or estimated by equations, but estimation is by far the more common method. However, predictive equations might generate errors large enough to impact outcome. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature was undertaken to document the accuracy of predictive equations preliminary to deciding on the imperative to measure metabolic rate. As part of a larger project to determine the role of indirect calorimetry in clinical practice, an evidence team identified published articles that examined the validity of various predictive equations for resting metabolic rate (RMR) in nonobese and obese people and also in individuals of various ethnic and age groups. Articles were accepted based on defined criteria and abstracted using evidence analysis tools developed by the American Dietetic Association. Because these equations are applied by dietetics practitioners to individuals, a key inclusion criterion was research reports of individual data. The evidence was systematically evaluated, and a conclusion statement and grade were developed. Four prediction equations were identified as the most commonly used in clinical practice (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, Owen, and World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University [WHO/FAO/UNU]). Of these equations, the Mifflin-St Jeor equation was the most reliable, predicting RMR within 10% of measured in more nonobese and obese individuals than any other equation, and it also had the narrowest error range. No validation work concentrating on individual errors was found for the WHO/FAO/UNU equation. Older adults and US-residing ethnic minorities were underrepresented both in the development of predictive equations and in validation studies. The Mifflin-St Jeor equation is more likely than the other equations tested to estimate RMR to within 10% of

Simple case definition of clinical benign prostatic hyperplasia, based on International Prostate Symptom Score, predicts general practitioner consultation rates.

PubMed

Kok, Esther T; Bohnen, Arthur M; Jonkheijm, Rikkert; Gouweloos, Jochem; Groeneveld, Frans P M J; Thomas, Siep; Bosch, J L H Ruud

2006-10-01

To determine which case-definition of clinical benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) has the best predictive value for general practitioner visits for lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) suggestive of BPH. The incidence and prevalence rates of general practitioner visits for LUTS were also determined. A longitudinal, population-based study from 1995 to 2003 was conducted among 1688 men aged 50 to 78 years old. Data were collected on physical urologic parameters, quality of life, and symptom severity as determined from the International Prostate Symptom Score. Information on health-care-seeking behavior of all participants was collected from the general practitioner (GP) record using a computerized search engine and an additional manual check of the electronically selected files. The incidence and prevalence rate of the men at risk was 19.6% and 14.0%, respectively, and these rates increased with age. For sensitivity and the positive predictive value, the case-definition of clinical BPH as an International Prostate Symptom Score greater than 7 had the best predictive value for GP visits for LUTS within 2 years after baseline. Because only marginal improvement (greater specificity but lower sensitivity) in the prediction of GP visits for LUTS was possible by adding information on prostate volume and flow, for the prediction of future GP visits for LUTS suggestive of BPH, we suggest that the International Prostate Symptom Score questionnaire be used and that estimation of the prostate volume and flow is not required.

Can heart rate predict blood pressure response to anti-hypertensive drug therapy?

PubMed

Owens, P E; Lyons, S; O'Brien, E

1998-04-01

The use of heart rate in clinical practice is limited by its variability under measurement situations. The mean heart rate on ambulatory monitoring provides a more robust statistic for clinical use. We examined the relationship between mean heart rate on initial referral ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) to the BP-lowering efficacy of the four main groups of anti-hypertensive medications, in a referral hypertensive population. Patients were retrospectively identified by review of the BP database, and data collected from the initial referral BP monitor off medication, and the subsequent ABPM after treatment with either beta-blockers, diuretics, calcium antagonists or angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. The change in mean arterial BP from the initial to the subsequent ABPM (ie, as a result of treatment) was correlated with the mean heart rate on the initial ABPM. A moderate association was found for initial daytime heart rate and BP response to beta-blockers (r = 0.24, P = 0.02), and ACE inhibitors (r = 0.14, P = 0.05). No such association was found for calcium antagonists or diuretics. When the groups were divided into those with a mean daytime heart rate <75 and > or =75 beats per min, BP reduction from beta-blocker and ACE inhibitor therapy was significantly greater in those patients with a higher daytime heart rate. We conclude that average daytime heart rate on pre-treatment ABPM can be useful as a predictor of BP response to beta-blockade or ACE inhibition.

Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children

PubMed Central

Main, Keith L.; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

2014-01-01

Word familiarity may affect magnocellular processes of word recognition. To explore this idea, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed-discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rate, but only for words, not for pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlation between contrast sensitivity and reading rate and no correlation between speed discrimination thresholds WASI subtest scores. These findings support the position that reading rate is influenced by magnocellular circuitry attuned to the recognition of familiar word-forms. PMID:25278418

Association of pain ratings with the prediction of early physical recovery after general and orthopaedic surgery-A quantitative study with repeated measures.

PubMed

Eriksson, Kerstin; Wikström, Lotta; Fridlund, Bengt; Årestedt, Kristofer; Broström, Anders

2017-11-01

To compare different levels of self-rated pain and determine if they predict anticipated early physical recovery in patients undergoing general and orthopaedic surgery. Previous research has indicated that average self-rated pain reflects patients' ability to recover the same day. However, there is a knowledge gap about the feasibility of using average pain ratings to predict patients' physical recovery for the next day. Descriptive, quantitative repeated measures. General and orthopaedic inpatients (n = 479) completed a questionnaire (October 2012-January 2015) about pain and recovery. Average pain intensity at rest and during activity was based on the Numeric Rating Scale and divided into three levels (0-3, 4-6, 7-10). Three out of five dimensions from the tool "Postoperative Recovery Profile" were used. Because few suffered severe pain, general and orthopaedic patients were analysed together. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that average pain intensity postoperative day 1 significantly predicted the impact on recovery day 2, except nausea, gastrointestinal function and bladder function when pain at rest and also nausea, appetite changes, and bladder function when pain during activity. High pain ratings (NRS 7-10) demonstrated to be a better predictor for recovery compared with moderate ratings (NRS 4-6), day 2, as it significantly predicted more items in recovery. Pain intensity reflected general and orthopaedic patients' physical recovery postoperative day 1 and predicted recovery for day 2. By monitoring patients' pain and impact on recovery, patients' need for support becomes visible which is valuable during hospital stays. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using heart rate to predict energy expenditure in large domestic dogs.

PubMed

Gerth, N; Ruoß, C; Dobenecker, B; Reese, S; Starck, J M

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to establish heart rate as a measure of energy expenditure in large active kennel dogs (28 ± 3 kg bw). Therefore, the heart rate (HR)-oxygen consumption (V˙O2) relationship was analysed in Foxhound-Boxer-Ingelheim-Labrador cross-breds (FBI dogs) at rest and graded levels of exercise on a treadmill up to 60-65% of maximal aerobic capacity. To test for effects of training, HR and V˙O2 were measured in female dogs, before and after a training period, and after an adjacent training pause to test for reversibility of potential effects. Least squares regression was applied to describe the relationship between HR and V˙O2. The applied training had no statistically significant effect on the HR-V˙O2 regression. A general regression line from all data collected was prepared to establish a general predictive equation for energy expenditure from HR in FBI dogs. The regression equation established in this study enables fast estimation of energy requirement for running activity. The equation is valid for large dogs weighing around 30 kg that run at ground level up to 15 km/h with a heart rate maximum of 190 bpm irrespective of the training level. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Higher Leptin and Adiponectin Concentrations Predict Poorer Performance-based Physical Functioning in Midlife Women: the Michigan Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation

PubMed Central

Zheng, Huiyong; Mancuso, Peter; Harlow, Siobán D.

2016-01-01

Background. Excess fat mass is a greater contributor to functional limitations than is reduced lean mass or the presence of obesity-related conditions. The impact of fat mass on physical functioning may be due to adipokines, adipose-derived proteins that have pro- or anti-inflammatory properties. Methods. Serum samples from 1996 to 2003 that were assayed for leptin, adiponectin, and resistin were provided by 511 participants from the Michigan site of the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation. Physical functioning performance was assessed annually during study visits from 1996 to 2003. Results. Among this population of Black and White women (mean baseline age = 45.6 years, SD = 2.7 years), all of whom were premenopausal at baseline, higher baseline leptin concentrations predicted longer stair climb, sit-to-rise, and 2-pound lift times and shorter forward reach distance (all p < .01). This relationship persisted after adjustment for age, BMI, percent skeletal muscle mass, race/ethnicity, economic strain, bodily pain, diabetes, knee osteoarthritis, and C-reactive protein. Baseline total adiponectin concentrations did not predict any mobility measures but did predict quadriceps strength; a 1 µg/mL higher adiponectin concentration was associated with 0.64 Nm lower quadriceps strength (p = .02). Resistin was not associated with any of the physical functioning performance measures. Change in the adipokines was not associated with physical functioning. Conclusion. In this population of middle-aged women, higher baseline leptin concentrations predicted poorer mobility-based functioning, whereas higher adiponectin concentrations predicted reduced quadriceps strength. These findings suggest that the relationship between the adipokines and physical functioning performance is independent of other known correlates of poor functioning. PMID:26302979

Racial bias is associated with ingroup death rate for Blacks and Whites: Insights from Project Implicit.

PubMed

Leitner, Jordan B; Hehman, Eric; Ayduk, Ozlem; Mendoza-Denton, Rodolfo

2016-10-20

Research suggests that, among Whites, racial bias predicts negative ingroup health outcomes. However, little is known about whether racial bias predicts ingroup health outcomes among minority populations. The aim of the current research was to understand whether racial bias predicts negative ingroup health outcomes for Blacks. We compiled racial bias responses from 250,665 Blacks and 1,391,632 Whites to generate county-level estimates of Blacks' and Whites' implicit and explicit biases towards each other. We then examined the degree to which these biases predicted ingroup death rate from circulatory-related diseases. In counties where Blacks harbored more implicit bias towards Whites, Blacks died at a higher rate. Additionally, consistent with previous research, in counties where Whites harbored more explicit bias towards Blacks, Whites died at a higher rate. These links between racial bias and ingroup death rate were independent of county-level socio-demographic characteristics, and racial biases from the outgroup in the same county. Findings indicate that racial bias is related to negative ingroup health outcomes for both Blacks and Whites, though this relationship is driven by implicit bias for Blacks, and explicit bias for Whites. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Looking Māori Predicts Decreased Rates of Home Ownership: Institutional Racism in Housing Based on Perceived Appearance

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This study examined differences in rates of home ownership among Māori (the indigenous peoples of New Zealand). We identified systematic factors that predicted why some Māori were more likely to own their own home (partially or fully) relative to other Māori. Data were drawn from a large national postal sample of 561 self-identified Māori collected as part of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study. As predicted, our analyses indicated that self-reported appearance as Māori, or the extent to which people thought they personally displayed features which visibly identified them as Māori to others, significantly predicted decreased rates of home ownership. This association held when adjusting for numerous demographic covariates, such as education, level of deprivation of the immediate area, household income, age, relationship status, region of residence, and so forth. Our analyses suggest there is, or at least has been in the recent past, institutional racism against Māori in New Zealand’s home lending industry based on merely appearing more Māori. PMID:25738961

Looking Māori predicts decreased rates of home ownership: institutional racism in housing based on perceived appearance.

PubMed

Houkamau, Carla A; Sibley, Chris G

2015-01-01

This study examined differences in rates of home ownership among Māori (the indigenous peoples of New Zealand). We identified systematic factors that predicted why some Māori were more likely to own their own home (partially or fully) relative to other Māori. Data were drawn from a large national postal sample of 561 self-identified Māori collected as part of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study. As predicted, our analyses indicated that self-reported appearance as Māori, or the extent to which people thought they personally displayed features which visibly identified them as Māori to others, significantly predicted decreased rates of home ownership. This association held when adjusting for numerous demographic covariates, such as education, level of deprivation of the immediate area, household income, age, relationship status, region of residence, and so forth. Our analyses suggest there is, or at least has been in the recent past, institutional racism against Māori in New Zealand's home lending industry based on merely appearing more Māori.

Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

2003-01-01

Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

Predictions of vacuum loss of evacuated vials from initial air leak rates.

PubMed

Prisco, Michael R; Ochoa, Jorge A; Yardimci, Atif M

2013-08-01

Container closure integrity is a critical factor for maintaining product sterility and stability. Therefore, closure systems (found in vials, syringes, and cartridges) are designed to provide a seal between rubber stoppers and glass containers. To ensure that the contained product has maintained its sterility and stability at the time of deployment, the seal must remain intact within acceptable limits. To this end, a mathematical model has been developed to describe vacuum loss in evacuated drug vials. The model computes equivalent leak diameter corresponding to initial air leak rate as well as vacuum loss as a function of time and vial size. The theory accounts for three flow regimes that may be encountered. Initial leak rates from 10(-8) to 10(3) sccm (standard cubic centimeters per minute) were investigated for vials ranging from 1 to 100 mL. Corresponding leak diameters of 0.25-173 μm were predicted. The time for a vial to lose half of its vacuum, the T50 value, ranged from many years at the lowest leak rates and largest vials, to fractions of a second at the highest leak rates and smallest vials. These results may be used to determine what level of initial vacuum leak is acceptable for a given product. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A 3.5 year diary study: Remembering and life story importance are predicted by different event characteristics.

PubMed

Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard; Jensen, Thomas; Holm, Tine; Olesen, Martin Hammershøj; Schnieber, Anette; Tønnesvang, Jan

2015-11-01

Forty-five participants described and rated two events each week during their first term at university. After 3.5 years, we examined whether event characteristics rated in the diary predicted remembering, reliving, and life story importance at the follow-up. In addition, we examined whether ratings of life story importance were consistent across a three year interval. Approximately 60% of events were remembered, but only 20% of these were considered above medium importance to life stories. Higher unusualness, rehearsal, and planning predicted whether an event was remembered 3.5 years later. Higher goal-relevance, importance, emotional intensity, and planning predicted life story importance 3.5 years later. There was a moderate correlation between life story importance rated three months after the diary and rated at the 3.5 year follow-up. The results suggest that autobiographical memory and life stories are governed by different mechanisms and that life story memories are characterized by some degree of stability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Momentum Theory Fails to Account for the Effects of Reinforcement Rate on Resurgence

PubMed Central

Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

The behavioral-momentum model of resurgence predicts reinforcer rates within a resurgence preparation should have three effects on target behavior. First, higher reinforcer rates in baseline (Phase 1) produce more persistent target behavior during extinction plus alternative reinforcement. Second, higher rate alternative reinforcement during Phase 2 generates greater disruption of target responding during extinction. Finally, higher rates of either reinforcement source should produce greater responding when alternative reinforcement is suspended in Phase 3. Recent empirical reports have produced mixed results in terms of these predictions. Thus, the present experiment further examined reinforcer-rate effects on persistence and resurgence. Rats pressed target levers for high-rate or low-rate variable-interval food during Phase 1. In Phase 2, target-lever pressing was extinguished, an alternative nose-poke became available, and nose-poking produced either high-rate variable-interval, low-rate variable-interval, or no (an extinction control) alternative reinforcement. Alternative reinforcement was suspended in Phase 3. For groups that received no alternative reinforcement, target-lever pressing was less persistent following high-rate than low-rate Phase-1 reinforcement. Target behavior was more persistent with low-rate alternative reinforcement than with high-rate alternative reinforcement or extinction alone. Finally, no differences in Phase-3 responding were observed for groups that received either high-rate or low-rate alternative reinforcement, and resurgence occurred only following high-rate alternative reinforcement. These findings are inconsistent with the momentum-based model of resurgence. We conclude this model mischaracterizes the effects of rein-forcer rates on persistence and resurgence of operant behavior. PMID:27193242

Emotionally excited eyeblink-rate variability predicts an experience of transportation into the narrative world

PubMed Central

Nomura, Ryota; Hino, Kojun; Shimazu, Makoto; Liang, Yingzong; Okada, Takeshi

2015-01-01

Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 years, SD = 13.18 years, range 18–63 years) were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1) in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2) in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor and Purpura, 1997). The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed SD) of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members. PMID:26029123

Predicting Vasovagal Syncope from Heart Rate and Blood Pressure: A Prospective Study in 140 Subjects.

PubMed

Virag, Nathalie; Erickson, Mark; Taraborrelli, Patricia; Vetter, Rolf; Lim, Phang Boon; Sutton, Richard

2018-04-28

We developed a vasovagal syncope (VVS) prediction algorithm for use during head-up tilt with simultaneous analysis of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). We previously tested this algorithm retrospectively in 1155 subjects, showing sensitivity 95%, specificity 93% and median prediction time of 59s. This study was prospective, single center, on 140 subjects to evaluate this VVS prediction algorithm and assess if retrospective results were reproduced and clinically relevant. Primary endpoint was VVS prediction: sensitivity and specificity >80%. In subjects, referred for 60° head-up tilt (Italian protocol), non-invasive HR and SBP were supplied to the VVS prediction algorithm: simultaneous analysis of RR intervals, SBP trends and their variability represented by low-frequency power generated cumulative risk which was compared with a predetermined VVS risk threshold. When cumulative risk exceeded threshold, an alert was generated. Prediction time was duration between first alert and syncope. Of 140 subjects enrolled, data was usable for 134. Of 83 tilt+ve (61.9%), 81 VVS events were correctly predicted and of 51 tilt-ve subjects (38.1%), 45 were correctly identified as negative by the algorithm. Resulting algorithm performance was sensitivity 97.6%, specificity 88.2%, meeting primary endpoint. Mean VVS prediction time was 2min 26s±3min16s with median 1min 25s. Using only HR and HR variability (without SBP) the mean prediction time reduced to 1min34s±1min45s with median 1min13s. The VVS prediction algorithm, is clinically-relevant tool and could offer applications including providing a patient alarm, shortening tilt-test time, or triggering pacing intervention in implantable devices. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

PubMed

Sundin, Per-Ola; Sjöström, Per; Jones, Ian; Olsson, Lovisa A; Udumyan, Ruzan; Grubb, Anders; Lindström, Veronica; Montgomery, Scott

2017-04-01

Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2  = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.