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Sample records for rates predicts higher

  1. Predicting Higher Education Outcomes and Implications for a Postsecondary Institution Ratings System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Eddie G., II

    2016-01-01

    The accountability of colleges and universities is a high priority for those making policy decisions. The purpose of this study was to determine institutional characteristics predicting retention rates, graduation rates and transfer-out rates using publicly available data from the US Department of Education. Using regression analysis, it was…

  2. Higher resting heart rate variability predicts skill in expressing some emotions.

    PubMed

    Tuck, Natalie L; Grant, Rosemary C I; Sollers, John J; Booth, Roger J; Consedine, Nathan S

    2016-12-01

    Vagally mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV) is a measure of cardiac vagal tone, and is widely viewed as a physiological index of the capacity to regulate emotions. However, studies have not directly tested whether vmHRV is associated with the ability to facially express emotions. In extending prior work, the current report tested links between resting vmHRV and the objectively assessed ability to facially express emotions, hypothesizing that higher vmHRV would predict greater expressive skill. Eighty healthy women completed self-reported measures, before attending a laboratory session in which vmHRV and the ability to express six emotions in the face were assessed. A repeated measures analysis of variance revealed a marginal main effect for vmHRV on skill overall; individuals with higher resting vmHRV were only better able to deliberately facially express anger and interest. Findings suggest that differences in resting vmHRV are associated with the objectively assessed ability to facially express some, but not all, emotions, with potential implications for health and well-being. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  3. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  4. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.

    PubMed

    Ruderman, Michael A; Wilson, Deirdra F; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53). Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.

  5. Younger women with ovulation disorders and unexplained infertility predict a higher success rate in superovulation (SO) intrauterine insemination (IUI).

    PubMed

    Viardot-Foucault, Veronique; Tai, Bee Choo; Prasath, Ethiraj Balaji; Lau, Matthew S K; Chan, Jerry K Y; Loh, Seong Feei

    2014-04-01

    Superovulation-intrauterine insemination (SO-IUI) is the most common assisted reproductive technique (ART) in the world, with good evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness. However, parameters affecting its success have not been consistently reported. So in this study, we aim at determining the parameters influencing the success rate of SO-IUI. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 797 SO-IUI cycles from 606 patients, performed between 2007 and 2009 in a single centre. These women received clomiphene citrate (CC), recombinant FSH (rFSH) or both. There were 127 clinical pregnancies with a pregnancy rate (PR) of 15.9% (127/797) per treatment cycle. Factors associated with higher PR included maternal age <38 (P = 0.02), subfertility diagnoses of ovulatory disorders, unexplained infertility, sexual dysfunction and unilateral tubal obstruction (P = 0.02), an endometrial thickness ≥8 mm (P = 0.03), total number motile spermatozoa (TNMS) of ≥1 million (P = 0.03), and spermatozoa normal forms (NF) ≥4% (P <0.01) on bivariate analysis. When CC is used, the endometrial thickness is more likely to be suboptimal (<8 mm). All the above parameters remained significant except the subfertility diagnoses on multivariate analysis. Patients' selection with women <38 years old and preferably with ovulation disorders and unexplained infertility is associated with the highest PR in SO-IUI. Cycle parameters such as the use of rFSH alone, with the avoidance of CC, TNMS ≥1 million and NF ≥4% is likely to result in the best outcomes and reduce the high order multiple pregnancy risk.

  6. Lower-Order Pain-Related Constructs are More Predictive of Cold Pressor Pain Ratings than Higher-Order Personality Traits

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jennifer E; Watson, David; Frey Law, Laura A

    2010-01-01

    Pain is a debilitating condition affecting millions each year, yet what predisposes certain individuals to be more sensitive to pain remains relatively unknown. Several psychological factors have been associated with pain perception, but the structural relations between multiple higher- and lower-order constructs and pain are not well understood. Thus, we aimed to examine the associations between pain perception using the cold pressor task (CPT), higher-order personality traits (neuroticism, negative affectivity, trait anxiety, extraversion, positive affectivity, psychoticism), and lower-order pain-related psychological constructs (pain catastrophizing [pre- and post], fear of pain, anxiety sensitivity, somatosensory amplification, hypochondriasis) in 66 pain-free adults. Factor analysis revealed three latent psychological variables: pain- or body-sensitivity, negative affect/neuroticism, and positive affect/extraversion. Similarly, pain responses factored into three domains: intensity, quality, and tolerance. Regression and correlation analyses demonstrated 1) all the lower-order pain constructs (fear, catastrophizing, and hypochondriasis) are related through a single underlying latent factor, that is partially related to the higher-order negative-valence personality traits; 2) pain- or body-sensitivity was more strongly predictive of pain quality than higher-order traits; and 3) the form of pain assessment is important – only qualitative pain ratings were significantly predicted by the psychological factors. Perspective: Consistent with the biopsychosocial model, these results suggest multiple pain-related psychological measures likely assess a common underlying factor, which is more predictive of qualitative than intensity pain ratings. This information may be useful for the development and advancement of pain assessments and treatments while considering the multidimensional nature of pain. PMID:20356801

  7. Lower-order pain-related constructs are more predictive of cold pressor pain ratings than higher-order personality traits.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jennifer E; Watson, David; Frey Law, Laura A

    2010-07-01

    Pain is a debilitating condition affecting millions each year, yet what predisposes certain individuals to be more sensitive to pain remains relatively unknown. Several psychological factors have been associated with pain perception, but the structural relations between multiple higher- and lower-order constructs and pain are not well understood. Thus, we aimed to examine the associations between pain perception using the cold pressor task (CPT), higher-order personality traits (neuroticism, negative affectivity, trait anxiety, extraversion, positive affectivity, psychoticism), and lower-order pain-related psychological constructs (pain catastrophizing [pre- and post-], fear of pain, anxiety sensitivity, somatosensory amplification, hypochondriasis) in 66 pain-free adults. Factor analysis revealed 3 latent psychological variables: pain- or body-sensitivity, negative affect/neuroticism, and positive affect/extraversion. Similarly, pain responses factored into 3 domains: intensity, quality, and tolerance. Regression and correlation analyses demonstrated that: 1) all the lower-order pain constructs (fear, catastrophizing, and hypochondriasis) are related through a single underlying latent factor that is partially related to the higher-order negative-valence personality traits; 2) pain- or body-sensitivity was more strongly predictive of pain quality than higher-order traits; and 3) the form of pain assessment is important-only qualitative pain ratings were significantly predicted by the psychological factors. Consistent with the biopsychosocial model, these results suggest multiple pain-related psychological measures likely assess a common underlying factor, which is more predictive of qualitative than intensity pain ratings. This information may be useful for the development and advancement of pain assessments and treatments while considering the multidimensional nature of pain.

  8. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    PubMed Central

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  9. Higher neonatal growth rate and body condition score at 7 months are predictive factors of obesity in adult female Beagle dogs.

    PubMed

    Leclerc, Lucie; Thorin, Chantal; Flanagan, John; Biourge, Vincent; Serisier, Samuel; Nguyen, Patrick

    2017-04-13

    The risks during early growth on becoming overweight in adulthood are widely studied in humans. However, early-life predictive factors for canine adult overweight and obesity have not yet been studied. To identify factors that may help explain the development of overweight and obesity at adulthood in dogs, a longitudinal study of 2 years was conducted in 24 female Beagle dogs of the same age, sexual status, and raised under identical environmental conditions. By means of a hierarchical classification on principal components with the following quantitative values: fat-free mass (FFM), percentage fat mass and pelvic circumference at 2 years of age, three groups of dogs were established and were nominally named: ideal weight (IW, n = 9), slightly overweight (OW1, n = 6) and overweight (OW2, n = 9). With the aim of identifying predictive factors of development of obesity at adulthood parental characteristics, growth pattern, energy balance and plasma factors were analysed by logistic regression analysis. At 24 months, the group compositions were in line with the body condition scores (BCS 1-9) values of the IW (5 or 6/9), the OW1 (6/9) and the OW2 (7 or 8/9) groups. Logistic regression analysis permitted the identification of neonatal growth rate during the first 2 weeks of life (GR2W) and BCS at 7 months as predictors for the development of obesity at adulthood. Seventy percent of dogs with either GR2W >125% or with BCS > 6/9 at 7 months belonged to the OW2 group. Results from energy intake and expenditure, corrected for FFM, showed that there was a greater positive energy imbalance between 7 and 10 months for the OW2, compared to the IW group. This study expands the understanding of previously reported risk factors for being overweight or obese in dogs, establishing that (i) 15 out of 24 of the studied dogs became overweight and (ii) GR2W and BCS at 7 months of age could be used as predictive factors as overweight adult dogs in the OW2 group

  10. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  11. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  12. Sharply higher rates of iron deficiency in obese Mexican women and children are predicted by obesity-related inflammation rather than by differences in dietary iron intake.

    PubMed

    Cepeda-Lopez, Ana C; Osendarp, Saskia Jm; Melse-Boonstra, Alida; Aeberli, Isabelle; Gonzalez-Salazar, Francisco; Feskens, Edith; Villalpando, Salvador; Zimmermann, Michael B

    2011-05-01

    Obese individuals may be at increased risk of iron deficiency (ID), but it is unclear whether this is due to poor dietary iron intakes or to adiposity-related inflammation. The aim of this study was to examine the relations between body mass index (BMI), dietary iron, and dietary factors affecting iron bioavailability, iron status, and inflammation [C-reactive protein (CRP)] in a transition country where obesity and ID are common. Data from the 1999 Mexican Nutrition Survey, which included 1174 children (aged 5-12 y) and 621 nonpregnant women (aged 18-50 y), were analyzed. The prevalence of obesity was 25.3% in women and 3.5% in children. The prevalence of ID was significantly (P < 0.05) higher in obese women and children compared with normal-weight subjects [odds ratios (95% CIs): 1.92 (1.23, 3.01) and 3.96 (1.34, 11.67) for women and children, respectively]. Despite similar dietary iron intakes in the 2 groups, serum iron concentrations were lower in obese women than in normal-weight women (62.6 ± 29.5 compared with 72.4 ± 34.6 μg/dL; P = 0.014), and total-iron-binding capacity was higher in obese children than in normal-weight children (399 ± 51 compared with 360 ± 48 μg/dL; P < 0.001). CRP concentrations in obese women and children were 4 times those of their normal-weight counterparts (P < 0.05). CRP but not iron intake was a strong negative predictor of iron status, independently of BMI (P < 0.05). The risk of ID in obese Mexican women and children was 2-4 times that of normal-weight individuals at similar dietary iron intakes. This increased risk of ID may be due to the effects of obesity-related inflammation on dietary iron absorption. Thus, ID control efforts in Mexico may be hampered by increasing rates of adiposity in women and children.

  13. Predicting Mathematical Aptitude for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Betty

    2008-01-01

    This present study seeks to predict mathematical aptitude for higher education by examining the relationship between mathematics results from the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC) general proficiency examination and the results from the General Certificate of Education (GCE) advanced level examination. This present study arose from a more…

  14. Predicting Mathematical Aptitude for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Betty

    2008-01-01

    This present study seeks to predict mathematical aptitude for higher education by examining the relationship between mathematics results from the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC) general proficiency examination and the results from the General Certificate of Education (GCE) advanced level examination. This present study arose from a more…

  15. Base Rates, Contingencies, and Prediction Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith

    2009-01-01

    A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…

  16. Independent Ratings of Institutions of Higher Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russian Education and Society, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The ReitOR Agency has for the first time posted its ratings of colleges and universities in the Volga Federal District of Russia based on criteria of public assessment, having designated institutions in the following priority areas of training: machine building, energy, communications and telecommunications, management and economics, and gas and…

  17. Independent Ratings of Institutions of Higher Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russian Education and Society, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The ReitOR Agency has for the first time posted its ratings of colleges and universities in the Volga Federal District of Russia based on criteria of public assessment, having designated institutions in the following priority areas of training: machine building, energy, communications and telecommunications, management and economics, and gas and…

  18. A method for grounding grid corrosion rate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Juan; Du, Jingyi

    2017-06-01

    Involved in a variety of factors, prediction of grounding grid corrosion complex, and uncertainty in the acquisition process, we propose a combination of EAHP (extended AHP) and fuzzy nearness degree of effective grounding grid corrosion rate prediction model. EAHP is used to establish judgment matrix and calculate the weight of each factors corrosion of grounding grid; different sample classification properties have different corrosion rate of contribution, and combining the principle of close to predict corrosion rate.The application result shows, the model can better capture data variation, thus to improve the validity of the model to get higher prediction precision.

  19. Perceived Rates of Return to Higher Education in Cyprus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria Eliophotou

    1997-01-01

    Estimates perceived rates of return to higher education in Cyprus, and uses them in logistic regression analysis to study effect of economic considerations on secondary students' decision to pursue higher education. The mean rate of return to higher education estimated by college candidates is considerably higher than that perceived by labor…

  20. Higher rates of sex evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Becks, Lutz; Agrawal, Aneil F

    2010-11-04

    The evolution and maintenance of sexual reproduction has puzzled biologists for decades. Although this field is rich in hypotheses, experimental evidence is scarce. Some important experiments have demonstrated differences in evolutionary rates between sexual and asexual populations; other experiments have documented evolutionary changes in phenomena related to genetic mixing, such as recombination and selfing. However, direct experiments of the evolution of sex within populations are extremely rare (but see ref. 12). Here we use the rotifer, Brachionus calyciflorus, which is capable of both sexual and asexual reproduction, to test recent theory predicting that there is more opportunity for sex to evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments. Replicated experimental populations of rotifers were maintained in homogeneous environments, composed of either high- or low-quality food habitats, or in heterogeneous environments that consisted of a mix of the two habitats. For populations maintained in either type of homogeneous environment, the rate of sex evolves rapidly towards zero. In contrast, higher rates of sex evolve in populations experiencing spatially heterogeneous environments. The data indicate that the higher level of sex observed under heterogeneity is not due to sex being less costly or selection against sex being less efficient; rather sex is sufficiently advantageous in heterogeneous environments to overwhelm its inherent costs. Counter to some alternative theories for the evolution of sex, there is no evidence that genetic drift plays any part in the evolution of sex in these populations.

  1. Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

    2007-01-01

    Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

  2. Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

    2007-01-01

    Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

  3. Packet loss rate prediction using the sparse basis prediction model.

    PubMed

    Atiya, Amir E; Yoo, Sung Goo; Chong, Kil To; Kim, Hyongsuk

    2007-05-01

    The quality of multimedia communicated through the Internet is highly sensitive to packet loss. In this letter, we develop a time-series prediction model for the end-to-end packet loss rate (PLR). The estimate of the PLR is needed in several transmission control mechanisms such as the TCP-friendly congestion control mechanism for UDP traffic. In addition, it is needed to estimate the amount of redundancy for the forward error correction (FEC) mechanism. An accurate prediction would therefore be very valuable. We used a relatively novel prediction model called sparse basis prediction model. It is an adaptive nonlinear prediction approach, whereby a very large dictionary of possible inputs are extracted from the time series (for example, through moving averages, some nonlinear transformations, etc.). Only few of the very best inputs among the dictionary are selected and are combined linearly. An algorithm adaptively updates the input selection (as well as updates the weights) each time a new time sample arrives in a computationally efficient way. Simulation experiments indicate significantly better prediction performance for the sparse basis approach, as compared to other traditional nonlinear approaches.

  4. Parent-progeny sequencing indicates higher mutation rates in heterozygotes.

    PubMed

    Yang, Sihai; Wang, Long; Huang, Ju; Zhang, Xiaohui; Yuan, Yang; Chen, Jian-Qun; Hurst, Laurence D; Tian, Dacheng

    2015-07-23

    Mutation rates vary within genomes, but the causes of this remain unclear. As many prior inferences rely on methods that assume an absence of selection, potentially leading to artefactual results, we call mutation events directly using a parent-offspring sequencing strategy focusing on Arabidopsis and using rice and honey bee for replication. Here we show that mutation rates are higher in heterozygotes and in proximity to crossover events. A correlation between recombination rate and intraspecific diversity is in part owing to a higher mutation rate in domains of high recombination/diversity. Implicating diversity per se as a cause, we find an ∼3.5-fold higher mutation rate in heterozygotes than in homozygotes, with mutations occurring in closer proximity to heterozygous sites than expected by chance. In a genome that is a patchwork of heterozygous and homozygous domains, mutations occur disproportionately more often in the heterozygous domains. If segregating mutations predispose to a higher local mutation rate, clusters of genes dominantly under purifying selection (more commonly homozygous) and under balancing selection (more commonly heterozygous), might have low and high mutation rates, respectively. Our results are consistent with this, there being a ten times higher mutation rate in pathogen resistance genes, expected to be under positive or balancing selection. Consequently, we do not necessarily need to evoke extremely weak selection on the mutation rate to explain why mutational hot and cold spots might correspond to regions under positive/balancing and purifying selection, respectively.

  5. Predicting discovery rates of genomic features.

    PubMed

    Gravel, Simon

    2014-06-01

    Successful sequencing experiments require judicious sample selection. However, this selection must often be performed on the basis of limited preliminary data. Predicting the statistical properties of the final sample based on preliminary data can be challenging, because numerous uncertain model assumptions may be involved. Here, we ask whether we can predict "omics" variation across many samples by sequencing only a fraction of them. In the infinite-genome limit, we find that a pilot study sequencing 5% of a population is sufficient to predict the number of genetic variants in the entire population within 6% of the correct value, using an estimator agnostic to demography, selection, or population structure. To reach similar accuracy in a finite genome with millions of polymorphisms, the pilot study would require ∼15% of the population. We present computationally efficient jackknife and linear programming methods that exhibit substantially less bias than the state of the art when applied to simulated data and subsampled 1000 Genomes Project data. Extrapolating based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Exome Sequencing Project data, we predict that 7.2% of sites in the capture region would be variable in a sample of 50,000 African Americans and 8.8% in a European sample of equal size. Finally, we show how the linear programming method can also predict discovery rates of various genomic features, such as the number of transcription factor binding sites across different cell types.

  6. Hispanic employees in the workplace: higher rate of fatalities.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Shelly; Ostendorf, Judith

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews the higher fatality and injury rates among the Hispanic population in the United States, whether legal immigrants, citizens, or illegal immigrants; reviews the current government and private industry regulations and safety programs; proposes additional legislation or programs; and describes the role of the occupational and environmental health nurse in reducing injuries and fatalities in this population.

  7. Early Prediction of Student Dropout and Performance in MOOCSs Using Higher Granularity Temporal Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ye, Cheng; Biswas, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    Our project is motivated by the early dropout and low completion rate problem in MOOCs. We have extended traditional features for MOOC analysis with richer and higher granularity information to make more accurate predictions of dropout and performance. The results show that finer-grained temporal information increases the predictive power in the…

  8. Female Patients Require a Higher Propofol Infusion Rate for Sedation.

    PubMed

    Maeda, Shigeru; Tomoyasu, Yumiko; Higuchi, Hitoshi; Honda, Yuka; Ishii-Maruhama, Minako; Miyawaki, Takuya

    2016-01-01

    Sedation may minimize physiologic and behavioral stress responses. In our facility, the infusion rate of propofol is adjusted according to the bispectral index (BIS) in all cases of implant-related surgery; multivariate analysis of retrospective data enabled us to extract independent factors that affect the dose of propofol in sedation that are considered useful indicators for achieving adequate sedation. The study population comprised all patients undergoing implant-related surgery under intravenous sedation in Okayama University Hospital from April 2009 to March 2013. The infusion rate of propofol was adjusted to maintain the BIS value at 70-80. The outcome was the average infusion rate of propofol, and potential predictor variables were age, sex, body weight, treatment time, and amount of midazolam. Independent variables that affected the average infusion rate of propofol were extracted with multiple regression analysis. One hundred twenty-five subjects were enrolled. In the multiple regression analysis, female sex was shown to be significantly associated with a higher average infusion rate of propofol. Females may require a higher infusion rate of propofol than males to achieve adequate sedation while undergoing implant-related surgery.

  9. Division I College Football Concussion Rates Are Higher at Higher Altitudes.

    PubMed

    Lynall, Robert C; Kerr, Zachary Y; Parr, Matthew S; Hackney, Anthony C; Mihalik, Jason P

    2016-02-01

    Retrospective cohort. Participating in sports at high altitude may have a protective effect on the brain, according to research studies. Research using validated data-collection methods in a previously unexplored cohort may better estimate the association between concussion injury risk and altitude. To determine the association between concussion rates and altitude during college football games. Athletic trainers from 21 Division I football programs provided exposure and injury data to the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Injury Surveillance Program (ISP) from the 2009-2010 to 2013-2014 academic years. The elevation of each stadium was determined. Concussion rates per 1000 athlete-exposures (AEs) were compared in 2 ways, based on the sample of stadium elevations: (1) median split (elevation higher than 178 m or lower than 178 m), and (2) quartile split. Rate ratios (RRs), rate differences, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. One hundred sixty-nine concussions were reported over 49 040 AEs (3.45/1000 AEs). Using the median split, the concussion rate above 178 m (RR = 4.18/1000 AEs) was 1.47 times the concussion rate below 178 m (RR = 2.84/1000 AEs; 95% CI: 1.09, 2.00; P = .01). The concussion rate at the highest altitude quartile (higher than 284 m; RR = 5.01/1000 AEs) was 1.67 times greater than the concussion rate at the lowest altitude quartile (lower than 43 m; RR = 3.00/1000 AEs; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.48; P = .01). College football game concussion rates appear to increase at higher altitudes. The clinical significance of this relatively small increase is unknown. Future research should explore potential physiologic underpinnings associated with concussion risk at relatively higher and lower altitudes. Prognosis, level 2b.

  10. Issues in Predicting Black Student Success in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sedlacek, William E.

    The topic of predicting black student success in higher education is discussed. The Cultural Study Center (CSC) at the University of Maryland has begun a three phase research program aimed at answering the broad research question "Is there anything that could be called a unique black experience or experiences which could be measured and translated…

  11. Recombination rate predicts inversion size in Diptera.

    PubMed Central

    Cáceres, M; Barbadilla, A; Ruiz, A

    1999-01-01

    Most species of the Drosophila genus and other Diptera are polymorphic for paracentric inversions. A common observation is that successful inversions are of intermediate size. We test here the hypothesis that the selected property is the recombination length of inversions, not their physical length. If so, physical length of successful inversions should be negatively correlated with recombination rate across species. This prediction was tested by a comprehensive statistical analysis of inversion size and recombination map length in 12 Diptera species for which appropriate data are available. We found that (1) there is a wide variation in recombination map length among species; (2) physical length of successful inversions varies greatly among species and is inversely correlated with the species recombination map length; and (3) neither the among-species variation in inversion length nor the correlation are observed in unsuccessful inversions. The clear differences between successful and unsuccessful inversions point to natural selection as the most likely explanation for our results. Presumably the selective advantage of an inversion increases with its length, but so does its detrimental effect on fertility due to double crossovers. Our analysis provides the strongest and most extensive evidence in favor of the notion that the adaptive value of inversions stems from their effect on recombination. PMID:10471710

  12. Supersonic Jet Noise Reductions Predicted With Increased Jet Spreading Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Morris, Philip J.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and, at higher speeds, it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation model. Further analysis with the model shows a relationship between changes in spreading rate due to enhanced mixing and changes in the far field radiated peak noise levels. The calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of the radiated peak noise level.

  13. Frequency rates and correlates of contrapower harassment in higher education.

    PubMed

    DeSouza, Eros R

    2011-01-01

    The current study investigated incivility, sexual harassment, and racial-ethnic harassment simultaneously when the targets were faculty members and the perpetrators were students (i.e., academic contrapower harassment; ACH). The sample constituted 257 faculty members (90% were White and 53% were women) from a medium-sized state university in the Midwestern United States. They completed an anonymous survey, including an openended question about a critical ACH incident. The findings revealed that 72% of the total sample had experienced some type of mistreatment from students during the past 2 years. The author hypothesized gender differences in frequency rates for overall ACH, incivility, and sexual harassment; however, there were none. Hence, this hypothesis was not supported. The author also hypothesized that incivility would predict sexual and ethnic harassment. This hypothesis was generally supported. Furthermore, he hypothesized that demographic, work-related, and tolerance for faculty-student romance would predict ACH and its subscales. The findings generally supported this hypothesis, with somewhat different predictors by gender. He also hypothesized that harassed faculty, especially women, would experience worse job-related outcomes than never harassed faculty. Neither gender nor the interaction was significant, but the main effect for harassment was, with harassed faculty members experiencing worse job-related outcomes than nonharassed faculty members. Thus this hypothesis was partially supported. Practical implications are discussed.

  14. Can arsenic occurrence rates in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 µg L−1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 µg L−1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology. PMID:22260208

  15. Can arsenic occurrence rate in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 μg L–1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 μg L–1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology.

  16. High-Precision Nucleation Rate Measurements for Higher Melting Metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bokeloh, Joachim; Wilde, Gerhard

    2014-08-01

    Nucleation of a crystal in undercooled melts of higher melting face-centered-cubic-metals has often been studied in the past. However, the data available were not of sufficient accuracy and only covered nucleation rates in too small of a range to allow precise conclusions concerning the nature of the underlying process as well as concerning important parameters such as the solid-liquid interface free energy that can in principle be deducted from such analyses. One way to circumvent ambiguities and analyze nucleation kinetics under well-defined conditions experimentally is given by performing statistically significant numbers of repeated single droplet experiments. Application of proper statistics analyses yields nucleation rates that are independent of a specific nucleation model. The first studies that were conducted in accordance with this approach on pure model materials revealed that the approach is valid. The results are comparable to those obtained by classic nucleation theory applied to experimental data, and it was shown that one might need to rethink the common assumption that heterogeneous nucleation is almost always responsible for solidification initiation. The current results also show that often-used models for the solid-liquid interface free energy might lead to overestimated values.

  17. Using Enrollment Data to Predict Retention Rate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bingham, Melissa A.; Solverson, Natalie Walleser

    2016-01-01

    First- to second-year retention rates are one metric reported by colleges and universities to convey institutional success to a variety of external constituents. But how much of a retention rate is institutional inputs, and how much can be understood by examining student inputs? The authors utilize multi-year, multi-institutional data to examine…

  18. Using Enrollment Data to Predict Retention Rate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bingham, Melissa A.; Solverson, Natalie Walleser

    2016-01-01

    First- to second-year retention rates are one metric reported by colleges and universities to convey institutional success to a variety of external constituents. But how much of a retention rate is institutional inputs, and how much can be understood by examining student inputs? The authors utilize multi-year, multi-institutional data to examine…

  19. Can the structure of motor variability predict learning rate?

    PubMed

    Barbado Murillo, David; Caballero Sánchez, Carla; Moreside, Janice; Vera-García, Francisco J; Moreno, Francisco J

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies show that motor variability is actively regulated as an exploration tool to promote learning in reward-based tasks. However, its role in learning processes during error-based tasks, when a reduction of the motor variability is required to achieve good performance, is still unclear. In this study, we hypothesized that error-based learning not only depends on exploration but also on the individuals' ability to measure and predict the motor error. Previous studies identified a less auto-correlated motor variability as a higher ability to perform motion adjustments. Two experiments investigated the relationship between motor learning and variability, analyzing the long-range autocorrelation of the center of pressure fluctuations through the α score of a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in balance tasks. In Experiment 1, we assessed the relationship between variability and learning rate using a standing balance task. Based on the results of this experiment, and to maximize learning, we performed a second experiment with a more difficult sitting balance task and increased practice. The learning rate of the 2 groups with similar balance performances but different α scores was compared. Individuals with a lower α score showed a higher learning rate. Because the α scores reveal how the motor output changes over time, instead of the magnitude of those changes, the higher learning rate is mainly linked to the higher error sensitivity rather than the exploration strategies. The results of this study highlight the relevance of the structure of output motor variability as a predictor of learning rate in error-based tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Reduction Rates for Higher Americium Oxidation States in Nitric Acid

    SciTech Connect

    Grimes, Travis Shane; Mincher, Bruce Jay; Schmitt, Nicholas C

    2015-09-30

    The stability of hexavalent americium was measured using multiple americium concentrations and nitric acid concentrations after contact with the strong oxidant sodium bismuthate. Contrary to our hypotheses Am(VI) was not reduced faster at higher americium concentrations, and the reduction was only zero-order at short time scales. Attempts to model the reduction kinetics using zero order kinetic models showed Am(VI) reduction in nitric acid is more complex than the autoreduction processes reported by others in perchloric acid. The classical zero-order reduction of Am(VI) was found here only for short times on the order of a few hours. We did show that the rate of Am(V) production was less than the rate of Am(VI) reduction, indicating that some Am(VI) undergoes two electron-reduction to Am(IV). We also monitored the Am(VI) reduction in contact with the organic diluent dodecane. A direct comparison of these results with those in the absence of the organic diluent showed the reduction rates for Am(VI) were not statistically different for both systems. Additional americium oxidations conducted in the presence of Ce(IV)/Ce(III) ions showed that Am(VI) is reduced without the typical growth of Am(V) observed in the systems sans Ce ion. This was an interesting result which suggests a potential new reduction/oxidation pathway for Am in the presence of Ce; however, these results were very preliminary, and will require additional experiments to understand the mechanism by which this occurs. Overall, these studies have shown that hexavalent americium is fundamentally stable enough in nitric acid to run a separations process. However, the complicated nature of the reduction pathways based on the system components is far from being rigorously understood.

  1. Social motivation in prospective memory: higher importance ratings and reported performance rates for social tasks.

    PubMed

    Penningroth, Suzanna L; Scott, Walter D; Freuen, Margaret

    2011-03-01

    Few studies have addressed social motivation in prospective memory (PM). In a pilot study and two main studies, we examined whether social PM tasks possess a motivational advantage over nonsocial PM tasks. In the pilot study and Study 1, participants listed their real-life important and less important PM tasks. Independent raters categorized the PM tasks as social or nonsocial. Results from both studies showed a higher proportion of tasks rated as social when important tasks were requested than when less important tasks were requested. In Study 1, participants also reported whether they had remembered to perform each PM task. Reported performance rates were higher for tasks rated as social than for those rated as nonsocial. Finally, in Study 2, participants rated the importance of two hypothetical PM tasks, one social and one nonsocial. The social PM task was rated higher in importance. Overall, these findings suggest that social PM tasks are viewed as more important than nonsocial PM tasks and they are more likely to be performed. We propose that consideration of the social relevance of PM will lead to a more complete and ecologically valid theoretical description of PM performance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. ATLAS trigger operations: Monitoring with ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min

    2017-01-01

    We present the operations and online monitoring with the ``Xmon'' rate prediction system for the trigger system at the ATLAS Experiment. A two-level trigger system reduces the LHC's bunch-crossing rate, 40 MHz at design capacity, to an average recording rate of about 1 kHz, while maintaining a high efficiency of selecting events of interest. The Xmon system uses the luminosity value to predict trigger rates that are, in turn, compared with incoming rates. The predictions rely on past runs to parameterize the luminosity dependency of the event rate for a trigger algorithm. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of the tool during recent operations.

  3. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  4. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; ...

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  5. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel C.; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-01-01

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification. PMID:23499924

  6. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

    PubMed

    Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  7. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burr, Devon M.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Marshall, John R.; Smith, James K.; White, Bruce R.; Emery, Joshua P.

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  8. Higher abnormal fertilization, higher cleavage rate, and higher arrested embryos rate were found in conventional IVF than in intracytoplasmic sperm injection.

    PubMed

    Ming, Li; Yuan, Chen; Ping, Liu; Jie, Qiao

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether performing different fertilization technologies (intracytoplasmic sperm injection [ICSI] and in vitro fertilization [IVF]) may affect the result of fertilization in the normal fertilization cycles. The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 164 cycles using sibling oocytes in combined IVF/ICSI with achieved a normal fertilization ( ≥ 25%) both conventional IVF and ICSI in this infertility centre. It was found that there were no differences in 2PN rate (70.25% vs 70.60%), but higher cleavage rate in ICSI than IVF insemination (98.99% vs 96.81%), higher arrested embryos rate in IVF than ICSI in 2PN group (20.00% vs 13.95%), and higher abnormal fertilization IPN (3.87% vs 1.92%) and 3PN (3.63 vs 0.854%) in IVF than ICSI. There were some differences fertilization outcomes between ICSI and IVF, which may be related to different procedures between two techniques.

  9. Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research.

    PubMed

    Peoples, Brandon K; Midway, Stephen R; Sackett, Dana; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012-2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the 'highest-impact' journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  10. Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact. PMID:27835703

  11. Twitter predicts citation rates of ecological research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peoples, Brandon K.; Midway, Stephen R.; Sackett, Dana K.; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  12. Bortezomib treatment induces a higher mortality rate in lupus model mice with a higher disease activity.

    PubMed

    Ikeda, Tomoko; Fujii, Hiroshi; Nose, Masato; Kamogawa, Yukiko; Shirai, Tsuyoshi; Shirota, Yuko; Ishii, Tomonori; Harigae, Hideo

    2017-08-11

    Bortezomib (Bz) is a proteasome inhibitor that directly targets antibody-producing plasma cells. We recently reported the first randomized control trial that evaluated the effects of Bz in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). In that study, we demonstrated that Bz treatment is associated with many adverse reactions in patients with refractory disease. In the present study, we examine the therapeutic and toxic effects of Bz on MRL/MpJ-lpr/lpr (MRL/lpr) mice with severe disease activity. Female MRL/lpr mice at 10 and 14 weeks of age were treated with phosphate buffered saline (PBS) (n = 19), Bz (750 μg/kg twice weekly) (n = 27), or cyclophosphamide (Cyc) (1 mg/body, once in 2 weeks) (n = 20). Cellular subsets, serum immunoglobulin, anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) antibody titer, and a pathological index of glomerulonephritis were then analyzed at 22 weeks of age. Survival curves of the 10-week-old and 14-week-old Bz-treated groups were compared. Blood counts, creatinine, liver enzymes, and serum cytokine levels were measured 1 week after Bz treatment. Gene expression profiling of spleens from Bz and Cyc treatment mice were compared with those from control mice. The anti-dsDNA antibody levels were significantly higher in 14-week-old than in 10-week-old mice, indicating a higher disease activity at 14 weeks. A significant decrease in the number of splenic cells and glomerulonephritis index was observed in Bz-treated and Cyc-treated mice. Bz, but not Cyc, significantly decreased serum immunoglobulin and anti-dsDNA antibody titer levels. Survival curve analysis revealed a significantly higher mortality rate in 14-week-old than in 10-week-old Bz-treated and control groups. Following two injections of Bz, serum IL-6 and TNF-α levels were significantly more elevated in 14-week-old than in 10-week-old mice. Potentially immunogenic molecules, such as heat shock proteins, were characteristically upregulated in spleens of Bz-treated but

  13. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    EPA Science Inventory


    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  14. Predictions of cell damage rates for Lifesat missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Golightly, Michael J.; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy; Nealy, John E.; Katz, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The track model of Katz is used to make predictions of cell damage rates for possible Lifesat experiments. Contributions from trapped protons and electrons and galactic cosmic rays are considered for several orbits. Damage rates for survival and transformation of C3HT10-1/2 cells are predicted for various spacecraft shields.

  15. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    EPA Science Inventory


    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  16. Rate of Perihematomal Edema Expansion Predicts Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Urday, Sebastian; Beslow, Lauren A; Dai, Feng; Zhang, Fan; Battey, Thomas W K; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Ayres, Alison M; Leasure, Audrey C; Selim, Magdy H; Simard, J Marc; Rosand, Jonathan; Kimberly, W Taylor; Sheth, Kevin N

    2016-04-01

    Intracerebral hemorrhage is a devastating disorder with no current treatment. Whether perihematomal edema is an independent predictor of neurologic outcome is controversial. We sought to determine whether perihematomal edema expansion rate predicts outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary medical center. One hundred thirty-nine consecutive supratentorial spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients 18 years or older admitted between 2000 and 2013. None. Intracerebral hemorrhage, intraventricular hemorrhage, and perihematomal edema volumes were measured from CT scans obtained at presentation, 24-hours, and 72-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage. Perihematomal edema expansion rate was the difference between initial and follow-up perihematomal edema volumes divided by the time interval. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between 1) perihematomal edema expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day mortality and 2) perihematomal edema expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day modified Rankin Scale score. Perihematomal edema expansion rate between admission and 24-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality (odds ratio, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.48-5.99; p = 0.002). This association persisted after adjusting for all components of the intracerebral hemorrhage score (odds ratio, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.05-4.64; p = 0.04). Similarly, higher 24-hour perihematomal edema expansion rate was associated with poorer modified Rankin Scale score in an ordinal shift analysis (odds ratio, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.37-4.21; p = 0.002). The association persisted after adjustment for all intracerebral hemorrhage score components (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.12-3.83; p = 0.02). Faster perihematomal edema expansion rate 24-hours postintracerebral hemorrhage is associated with worse outcome. Perihematomal edema may represent an attractive translational target for secondary injury after intracerebral hemorrhage.

  17. Visible light communication using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate.

    PubMed

    Chow, Chi-Wai; Chen, Chung-Yen; Chen, Shih-Hao

    2015-10-05

    Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors are widely used in mobile-phone and cameras. Hence, it is attractive if these image sensors can be used as the visible light communication (VLC) receivers (Rxs). However, using these CMOS image sensors are challenging. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a VLC link using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate of the CMOS image sensor. We first discuss and analyze the features of using CMOS image sensor as VLC Rx, including the rolling shutter effect, overlapping of exposure time of each row of pixels, frame-to-frame processing time gap, and also the image sensor "blooming" effect. Then, we describe the procedure of synchronization and demodulation. This includes file format conversion, grayscale conversion, column matrix selection avoiding blooming, polynomial fitting for threshold location. Finally, the evaluation of bit-error-rate (BER) is performed satisfying the forward error correction (FEC) limit.

  18. Predicting the extent of metabolism using in vitro permeability rate measurements and in silico permeability rate predictions

    PubMed Central

    Hosey, Chelsea M; Benet, Leslie Z

    2015-01-01

    The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) can be utilized to predict drug disposition, including interactions with other drugs and transporter or metabolizing enzyme effects based on the extent of metabolism and solubility of a drug. However, defining the extent of metabolism relies upon clinical data. Drugs exhibiting high passive intestinal permeability rates are extensively metabolized. Therefore, we aimed to determine if in vitro measures of permeability rate or in silico permeability rate predictions could predict the extent of metabolism, to determine a reference compound representing the permeability rate above which compounds would be expected to be extensively metabolized, and to predict the major route of elimination of compounds in a two-tier approach utilizing permeability rate and a previously published model predicting the major route of elimination of parent drug. Twenty-two in vitro permeability rate measurement data sets in Caco-2 and MDCK cell lines and PAMPA were collected from the literature, while in silico permeability rate predictions were calculated using ADMET Predictor™ or VolSurf+. The potential for permeability rate to differentiate between extensively and poorly metabolized compounds was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curves. Compounds that yielded the highest sensitivity-specificity average were selected as permeability rate reference standards. The major route of elimination of poorly permeable drugs was predicted by our previously published model and the accuracies and predictive values were calculated. The areas under the receiver operating curves were >0.90 for in vitro measures of permeability rate and >0.80 for the VolSurf+ model of permeability rate, indicating they were able to predict the extent of metabolism of compounds. Labetalol and zidovudine predicted greater than 80% of extensively metabolized drugs correctly and greater than 80% of poorly metabolized drugs correctly in Caco

  19. Comparison of CALPUFF and ISCST3 models for predicting downwind odor and source emission rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lingjuan; Parker, David B.; Parnell, Calvin B.; Lacey, Ronald E.; Shaw, Bryan W.

    CALPUFF model and ISCST3 Gaussian dispersion models were evaluated for predicting downwind odor concentrations and back-calculating area source odor emission rates. The comparison between the predicted and field-sampled downwind concentrations indicates that the CALPUFF model could fairly well predict average downwind odor concentrations. However, ISCST3 tended to under predict downwind odor concentrations as compared to the measured concentrations. Both the CALPUFF and ISCST3 models failed to predict peak odor concentrations using the constant average emission rate. Odor emission rates obtained by back-calculating fluxes using CALPUFF and ISC models with the same field measurements of downwind odor concentrations are significantly different. It indicates that back-calculated emission rates are model specific. The modeled emission rates tended to be higher than flux chamber source sampling results. The flux chamber protocol may under-estimate odor emission rates.

  20. Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

    PubMed Central

    Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

  1. Areas with high rates of police-reported violent crime have higher rates of childhood asthma morbidity

    PubMed Central

    Beck, Andrew F.; Huang, Bin; Ryan, Patrick H.; Sandel, Megan T.; Chen, Chen; Kahn, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To assess whether population-level violent (and all) crime rates were associated with population-level child asthma utilization rates and predictive of patient-level risk of asthma reutilization after a hospitalization. Study design A retrospective cohort study of 4,638 pediatric asthma-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations between 2011 and 2013 was completed. For population-level analyses, census tract asthma utilization rates were calculated by dividing the number of utilization events within a tract by the child population. For patient-level analyses, hospitalized patients (n=981) were followed until time of first asthma-related reutilization. The primary predictor was the census tract rate of violent crime as recorded by the police; the all crime (violent plus non-violent) rate was also assessed. Results Census tract-level violent and all crime rates were significantly correlated with asthma utilization rates (both p<.0001). The violent crime rate explained 35% of the population-level asthma utilization variance and remained associated with increased utilization after adjustment for census tract poverty, unemployment, substandard housing, and traffic exposure (p=.002). The all crime rate explained 28% of the variance and was similarly associated with increased utilization after adjustment (p=.02). Hospitalized children trended toward being more likely to reutilize if they lived in higher violent (p=.1) and all crime areas (p=.01). After adjustment, neither relationship was significant. Conclusions Crime data could help facilitate early identification of potentially toxic stressors relevant to the control of asthma for populations and patients. PMID:26960918

  2. Areas with High Rates of Police-Reported Violent Crime Have Higher Rates of Childhood Asthma Morbidity.

    PubMed

    Beck, Andrew F; Huang, Bin; Ryan, Patrick H; Sandel, Megan T; Chen, Chen; Kahn, Robert S

    2016-06-01

    To assess whether population-level violent (and all) crime rates were associated with population-level child asthma utilization rates and predictive of patient-level risk of asthma reutilization after a hospitalization. A retrospective cohort study of 4638 pediatric asthma-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations between 2011 and 2013 was completed. For population-level analyses, census tract asthma utilization rates were calculated by dividing the number of utilization events within a tract by the child population. For patient-level analyses, hospitalized patients (n = 981) were followed until time of first asthma-related reutilization. The primary predictor was the census tract rate of violent crime as recorded by the police; the all crime (violent plus nonviolent) rate was also assessed. Census tract-level violent and all crime rates were significantly correlated with asthma utilization rates (both P < .0001). The violent crime rate explained 35% of the population-level asthma utilization variance and remained associated with increased utilization after adjustment for census tract poverty, unemployment, substandard housing, and traffic exposure (P = .002). The all crime rate explained 28% of the variance and was similarly associated with increased utilization after adjustment (P = .02). Hospitalized children trended toward being more likely to reutilize if they lived in higher violent (P = .1) and all crime areas (P = .01). After adjustment, neither relationship was significant. Crime data could help facilitate early identification of potentially toxic stressors relevant to the control of asthma for populations and patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Emotional Competence and Drop-Out Rates in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingston, Emma

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the emotional competence of first year undergraduates enrolled on a high or low drop-out rate (HDR and LDR, respectively) course, at a newly established university within the UK. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methods approach using both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was…

  4. Towards a Higher Retention Rate among Distance Learners.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frew, Elspeth A.; Weber, Karin

    1995-01-01

    Presents results from questionnaires sent to past and present graduate tourism students from the Gippsland School of Business at Monash University (Australia) to determine factors that influenced student decisions to withdraw from a distance education tourism course. Tables present the rate of progression of students since course establishment,…

  5. Emotional Competence and Drop-Out Rates in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingston, Emma

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the emotional competence of first year undergraduates enrolled on a high or low drop-out rate (HDR and LDR, respectively) course, at a newly established university within the UK. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methods approach using both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was…

  6. Towards a Higher Retention Rate among Distance Learners.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frew, Elspeth A.; Weber, Karin

    1995-01-01

    Presents results from questionnaires sent to past and present graduate tourism students from the Gippsland School of Business at Monash University (Australia) to determine factors that influenced student decisions to withdraw from a distance education tourism course. Tables present the rate of progression of students since course establishment,…

  7. Dioecy is associated with higher diversification rates in flowering plants.

    PubMed

    Käfer, J; de Boer, H J; Mousset, S; Kool, A; Dufay, M; Marais, G A B

    2014-07-01

    In angiosperms, dioecious clades tend to have fewer species than their nondioecious sister clades. This departure from the expected equal species richness in the standard sister clade test has been interpreted as implying that dioecious clades diversify less and has initiated a series of studies suggesting that dioecy might be an 'evolutionary dead end'. However, two of us recently showed that the 'equal species richness' null hypothesis is not valid in the case of derived char acters, such as dioecy, and proposed a new test for sister clade comparisons; preliminary results, using a data set available in the litterature, indicated that dioecious clades migth diversify more than expected. However, it is crucial for this new test to distinguish between ancestral and derived cases of dioecy, a criterion that was not taken into account in the available data set. Here, we present a new data set that was obtained by searching the phylogenetic literature on more than 600 completely dioecious angiosperm genera and identifying 115 sister clade pairs for which dioecy is likely to be derived (including > 50% of the dioecious species). Applying the new sister clade test to this new dataset, we confirm the preliminary result that dioecy is associated with an increased diversification rate, a result that does not support the idea that dioecy is an evolutionary dead end in angiosperms. The traits usually associated with dioecy, that is, an arborescent growth form, abiotic pollination, fleshy fruits or a tropical distribution, do not influence the diversification rate. Rather than a low diversification rate, the observed species richness patterns of dioecious clades seem to be better explained by a low transition rate to dioecy and frequent losses.

  8. Mass gathering medicine: event factors predicting patient presentation rates.

    PubMed

    Locoh-Donou, Samuel; Yan, Guofen; Berry, Thomas; O'Connor, Robert; Sochor, Mark; Charlton, Nathan; Brady, William

    2016-08-01

    This study was conducted to identify the event characteristics of mass gatherings that predict patient presentation rates held in a southeastern US university community. We conducted a retrospective review of all event-based emergency medical services (EMS) records from mass gathering patient presentations over an approximate 23 month period, from October 24, 2009 to August 27, 2011. All patrons seen by EMS were included. Event characteristics included: crowd size, venue percentage filled seating, venue location (inside/outside), venue boundaries (bounded/unbounded), presence of free water (i.e., without cost), presence of alcohol, average heat index, presence of climate control (i.e., air conditioning), and event category (football, concerts, public exhibitions, non-football athletic events). We identified 79 mass gathering events, for a total of 670 patient presentations. The cumulative patron attendance was 917,307 persons. The patient presentation rate (PPR) for each event was calculated as the number of patient presentations per 10,000 patrons in attendance. Overdispersed Poisson regression was used to relate this rate to the event characteristics while controlling for crowd size. In univariate analyses, increased rates of patient presentations were strongly associated with outside venues [rate ratio (RR) = 3.002, p < 0.001], unbounded venues (RR = 2.839, p = 0.001), absence of free water (RR = 1.708, p = 0.036), absence of climate control (RR = 3.028, p < 0.001), and a higher heat index (RR = 1.211 per 10-unit heat index increase, p = 0.003). The presence of alcohol was not significantly associated with the PPR. Football events had the highest PPR, followed sequentially by public exhibitions, concerts, and non-football athletic events. In multivariate models, the strong predictors from the univariate analyses retained their predictive significance for the PPR, together with heat index and percent seating. In the setting of mass event

  9. Teacher Professionalism and Student Evaluation of Teaching: Will Better Teachers Receive Higher Ratings and Will Better Students Give Higher Ratings?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spooren, Pieter; Mortelmans, Dimitri

    2006-01-01

    The use of student evaluations of teaching performance has been an important but controversial tool in the improvement of teaching quality during the past few decades. Although student evaluations of teaching are implemented in many faculties, not everyone is convinced of the desirability and utility of these ratings. In this paper, we present the…

  10. Compressive behaviour of dam concrete at higher strain rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caverzan, A.; Peroni, M.; Solomos, G.

    2016-05-01

    The mechanical behaviour of concrete when subjected to impact or blast has still many aspects requiring further study. Dam concrete is characterized by large coarse aggregates, hence large specimen sizes are needed in order to study a representative volume of the material. Exploiting an innovative equipment, based on Hopkinson bar techniques, the dynamic behaviour of concrete of 64 mm maximum aggregate size has been investigated. Direct dynamic compression tests have been performed on medium and large size cylindrical samples. Full stress-strain curves have been obtained, which have allowed the estimation of fracturing energies and of the relevant dynamic increase factor. The experimental campaign has also included a reference standard concrete in order to highlight the peculiarity of the dam concrete at high strain rates and to validate the transition of this type of testing to very large specimens.

  11. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  12. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors.

    PubMed

    Niessen, A Susan M; Meijer, Rob R; Tendeiro, Jorge N

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance.

  13. Fasting Hyperglycemia Predicts Lower Rates of Weight Gain by Increased Energy Expenditure and Fat Oxidation Rate

    PubMed Central

    Thearle, Marie S.; Bogardus, Clifton; Krakoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Context: Increased adiposity and insulin resistance are associated with hyperglycemia and previous studies have reported that higher glucoses are associated with lower rates of weight gain. One possible mechanism is via increased energy expenditure (EE). Objective: To assess the relationships between changes in EE during spontaneous weight gain and concomitant changes in glucose levels. Design and Participants: Body composition, metabolic, and glycemic data were available from nondiabetic Native Americans who underwent two measurements of 24-h EE during eucaloric feeding in a metabolic chamber (N = 144; time between measurements: 5.0 ± 3.3 years) or resting EE by ventilated hood system during the euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp (N = 261; 4.5 ± 3.2 years). Long-term follow-up data (8.3 ± 4.3 years) for weight and body composition were available in 131 and 122 subjects, respectively. Main Outcome Measures: Twenty four hour EE and respiratory quotient (RQ), resting (RMR), and sleeping (SMR) metabolic rates, glucose, and insulin levels, basal glucose output (BGO). Results: Weight gain-associated increase in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels was accompanied with decreased 24-h RQ (partial R = −0.24, P = .002) and increased 24-h EE, RMR, SMR, and fat oxidation after accounting for changes in body composition (partial R: 0.12 to 0.19, all P ≤ .05). Upon weight gain, BGO tended to increase (P = .07), while insulin infusion induced a decrease in EE (P = .04). Higher baseline FPG predicted lower rates of future weight gain (partial R = −0.18, P = .04). Conclusions: Higher FPG after weight gain was associated with greater-than-expected increase in EE. The rise in BGO and the insulin-induced EE suppression at follow-up indicate that increased hepatic gluconeogenesis may be an important mediator of EE changes associated with weight gain. PMID:25559400

  14. Clinician Ratings of Batterer Treatment Behaviors in Predicting Reassault

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gondolf, Edward W.; Wernik, Haran

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the use of clinicians' ratings of batterer program participants to predict their reassaults during a 6-month posttreatment follow-up and a longer and more inclusive postintake follow-up period (n = 380). The ratings consist of 10 items that reflect the behavioral criteria used by clinicians in making judgment about treatment…

  15. Expensive Brains: "Brainy" Rodents have Higher Metabolic Rate.

    PubMed

    Sobrero, Raúl; May-Collado, Laura J; Agnarsson, Ingi; Hernández, Cristián E

    2011-01-01

    Brains are the centers of the nervous system of animals, controlling the organ systems of the body and coordinating responses to changes in the ecological and social environment. The evolution of traits that correlate with cognitive ability, such as relative brain size is thus of broad interest. Brain mass relative to body mass (BM) varies among mammals, and diverse factors have been proposed to explain this variation. A recent study provided evidence that energetics play an important role in brain evolution (Isler and van Schaik, 2006). Using composite phylogenies and data drawn from multiple sources, these authors showed that basal metabolic rate (BMR) correlates with brain mass across mammals. However, no such relationship was found within rodents. Here we re-examined the relationship between BMR and brain mass within Rodentia using a novel species-level phylogeny. Our results are sensitive to parameter evaluation; in particular how species mass is estimated. We detect no pattern when applying an approach used by previous studies, where each species BM is represented by two different numbers, one being the individual that happened to be used for BMR estimates of that species. However, this approach may compromise the analysis. When using a single value of BM for each species, whether representing a single individual, or available species mean, our findings provide evidence that brain mass (independent of BM) and BMR are correlated. These findings are thus consistent with the hypothesis that large brains evolve when the payoff for increased brain mass is greater than the energetic cost they incur.

  16. Expensive Brains: “Brainy” Rodents have Higher Metabolic Rate

    PubMed Central

    Sobrero, Raúl; May-Collado, Laura J.; Agnarsson, Ingi; Hernández, Cristián E.

    2011-01-01

    Brains are the centers of the nervous system of animals, controlling the organ systems of the body and coordinating responses to changes in the ecological and social environment. The evolution of traits that correlate with cognitive ability, such as relative brain size is thus of broad interest. Brain mass relative to body mass (BM) varies among mammals, and diverse factors have been proposed to explain this variation. A recent study provided evidence that energetics play an important role in brain evolution (Isler and van Schaik, 2006). Using composite phylogenies and data drawn from multiple sources, these authors showed that basal metabolic rate (BMR) correlates with brain mass across mammals. However, no such relationship was found within rodents. Here we re-examined the relationship between BMR and brain mass within Rodentia using a novel species-level phylogeny. Our results are sensitive to parameter evaluation; in particular how species mass is estimated. We detect no pattern when applying an approach used by previous studies, where each species BM is represented by two different numbers, one being the individual that happened to be used for BMR estimates of that species. However, this approach may compromise the analysis. When using a single value of BM for each species, whether representing a single individual, or available species mean, our findings provide evidence that brain mass (independent of BM) and BMR are correlated. These findings are thus consistent with the hypothesis that large brains evolve when the payoff for increased brain mass is greater than the energetic cost they incur. PMID:21811456

  17. Asteroid orbits and ephemerides: Towards higher-fidelity predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S.; Milani, A.; Chodas, P.

    2014-07-01

    Since the discovery of the first minor planet Ceres, astronomers have faced the problem of determining asteroid orbits and providing reliable ephemeris predictions. Though the theoretical algorithms to solve this problem are well consolidated, we still have to face several challenges when estimating asteroid trajectories. The computation of an asteroid orbit is determined by the optical and radar astrometric observations available. Thus, the observation error model is crucial for providing reliable orbits and uncertainty information. The presence of systematic errors in asteroid optical astrometry is a known issue that we have to deal with. Therefore, we show how to correct for star catalog biases due to star position and proper motion errors by using the PPMXL catalog as reference. Moreover, since the quality of observations from different observatories and different observing programs is uneven, we apply individual data weights to each observation according to the expected quality. We also discuss how to mitigate the possible correlations arising between observations from the same observatory that are closely spaced in time. Beside the treatment of the astrometry, the dynamical model is an essential component when computing asteroid orbits. For a very well constrained orbit, even small accelerations can be required in order to fit the observational dataset and to make reliable predictions. We account for the gravitational attraction due to the Sun, the planets, the Moon, and Pluto as well as that due to the 16 most massive bodies in the main asteroid belt. We also include a relativistic model that account for both Solar and relativistic terms. Non-gravitational perturbations may be a relevant component of the dynamical model and they are difficult to model since they depend on the considered asteroid's physical properties, which are typically unknown. We discuss how to estimate non-gravitational perturbations and the resulting uncertainty by either determining

  18. Plasma metabolite levels predict bird growth rates: A field test of model predictive ability.

    PubMed

    Albano, Noelia; Masero, José A; Villegas, Auxiliadora; Abad-Gómez, José María; Sánchez-Guzmán, Juan M

    2011-09-01

    Bird growth rates are usually derived from nonlinear relationships between age and some morphological structure, but this procedure may be limited by several factors. To date, nothing is known about the capacity of plasma metabolite profiling to predict chick growth rates. Based on laboratory-trials, we here develop predictive logistic models of body mass, and tarsus and wing length growth rates in Gull-billed Tern Gelochelidon nilotica chicks from measurements of plasma metabolite levels at different developmental stages. The predictive model obtained during the fastest growth period (at the age of 12 days) explained 65-68% of the chicks' growth rates, with fasting triglyceride level explaining most of the variation in growth rate. At the end of pre-fledging period, β-hydroxybutyrate level was also a good predictor of growth rates. Finally, we carried out a field test to check the predictive capacity of the models in two colonies of wild Gull-billed Tern, comparing field-measured and model-predicted growth rates between groups. Both, measured and predicted growth rates, matched statistically. Plasma metabolite levels can thus be applied in comparative studies of chick growth rates when semi-precocial birds can be captured only once.

  19. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    PubMed Central

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  20. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  1. ATLAS trigger operations: Upgrades to ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers, Ava; Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min; Atlas Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    We present ``Xmon,'' a tool to monitor trigger rates in the Control Room of the ATLAS Experiment. We discuss Xmon's recent (1) updates, (2) upgrades, and (3) operations. (1) Xmon was updated to modify the tool written for the three-level trigger architecture in Run-1 (2009-2012) to adapt to the new two-level system for Run-2 (2015-current). The tool takes as input the beam luminosity to make a rate prediction, which is compared with incoming rates to detect anomalies that occur both globally throughout a run and locally within a run. Global offsets are more commonly caught by the predictions based upon past runs, where offline processing allows for function adjustments and fit quality through outlier rejection. (2) Xmon was upgraded to detect local offsets using on-the-fly predictions, which uses a sliding window of in-run rates to make predictions. (3) Xmon operations examples are given. Future work involves further automation of the steps to provide the predictive functions and for alerting shifters.

  2. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  3. DSMC predictions of non-equilibrium reaction rates.

    SciTech Connect

    Gallis, Michail A.; Bond, Ryan Bomar; Torczynski, John Robert

    2010-04-01

    A set of Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) chemical-reaction models recently proposed by Bird and based solely on the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels of the species involved is applied to calculate nonequilibrium chemical-reaction rates for atmospheric reactions in hypersonic flows. The DSMC non-equilibrium model predictions are in good agreement with theoretical models and experimental measurements. The observed agreement provides strong evidence that modeling chemical reactions using only the collision energy and the vibrational energy levels provides an accurate method for predicting non-equilibrium chemical-reaction rates.

  4. Cross-Validation of Resting Metabolic Rate Prediction Equations.

    PubMed

    Flack, Kyle D; Siders, William A; Johnson, LuAnn; Roemmich, James N

    2016-09-01

    Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence the accuracy of RMR predictions will help to revise existing, or develop new and improved, equations. Our aim was to test the validity of RMR predicted in healthy adults by the Harris-Benedict, World Health Organization, Mifflin-St Jeor, Nelson, Wang equations, and three meta-equations of Sabounchi. Predicted RMR was tested for agreement with indirect calorimetry. Men and women (n=30) age 18 to 65 years from Grand Forks, ND, were recruited and included for analysis during spring/summer 2014. Participants were nonobese or obese (body mass index range=19 to 39) and primarly white. Agreement between measured (indirect calorimetry) and predicted RMR was measured. The methods of Bland and Altman were employed to determine mean bias (predicted minus measured RMR, kcal/day) and limits of agreement between predicted and measured RMR. Repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to test for bias in RMR predicted from each equation vs the measured RMR. Bias (mean±2 standard deviations) was lowest for the Harris-Benedict (-14±378 kcal/24 h) and World Health Organization (-25±394 kcal/24 h) equations. These equations also predicted RMR that were not different from measured. Mean RMR predictions from all other equations significantly differed from indirect calorimetry. The 2 standard deviation limits of agreement were moderate or large for all equations tested, ranging from 314 to 445 kcal/24 h. Prediction bias was inversely associated with the magnitude of RMR and with fat-free mass. At the group level, the traditional Harris-Benedict and World Health Organization equations were the most accurate. However, these equations did not perform well at the individual level. As fat-free mass increased, the prediction equations

  5. Predicting perceptual learning from higher-order cortical processing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fang; Huang, Jing; Lv, Yaping; Ma, Xiaoli; Yang, Bin; Wang, Encong; Du, Boqi; Li, Wu; Song, Yan

    2016-01-01

    Visual perceptual learning has been shown to be highly specific to the retinotopic location and attributes of the trained stimulus. Recent psychophysical studies suggest that these specificities, which have been associated with early retinotopic visual cortex, may in fact not be inherent in perceptual learning and could be related to higher-order brain functions. Here we provide direct electrophysiological evidence in support of this proposition. In a series of event-related potential (ERP) experiments, we recorded high-density electroencephalography (EEG) from human adults over the course of learning in a texture discrimination task (TDT). The results consistently showed that the earliest C1 component (68-84ms), known to reflect V1 activity driven by feedforward inputs, was not modulated by learning regardless of whether the behavioral improvement is location specific or not. In contrast, two later posterior ERP components (posterior P1 and P160-350) over the occipital cortex and one anterior ERP component (anterior P160-350) over the prefrontal cortex were progressively modified day by day. Moreover, the change of the anterior component was closely correlated with improved behavioral performance on a daily basis. Consistent with recent psychophysical and imaging observations, our results indicate that perceptual learning can mainly involve changes in higher-level visual cortex as well as in the neural networks responsible for cognitive functions such as attention and decision making.

  6. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  7. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Treesearch

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  8. Prediction of Rate Constants for Catalytic Reactions with Chemical Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Catlow, C Richard A

    2016-08-01

    Ex machina: A computational method for predicting rate constants for reactions within microporous zeolite catalysts with chemical accuracy has recently been reported. A key feature of this method is a stepwise QM/MM approach that allows accuracy to be achieved while using realistic models with accessible computer resources.

  9. The Predictive Validity of the Kindergarten Teacher Rating Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glazzard, Peggy; And Others

    1982-01-01

    The Kindergarten Teacher Rating Scale is shown to be a valid predictor of first-grade reading achievement in a study of predictive validity and classification accuracy. The scale's success in explaining the variance in first-grade reading scores and correctly classifying students is compared to that of reading readiness tests. (Author/CM)

  10. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  11. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  12. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  13. Cross-validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Background: Knowledge of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) is necessary for determining individual total energy requirements. Measurement of RMR is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, the accuracy of these equations...

  14. Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Gelbart, Miri; Ziv-Baran, Tomer; Williams, Craig A; Yarom, Yoni; Dubnov-Raz, Gal

    2017-03-01

    To identify a method to predict the maximal heart rate (MHR) in children and adolescents, as available prediction equations developed for adults have a low accuracy in children. We hypothesized that MHR may be influenced by resting heart rate, anthropometric factors, or fitness level. Cross-sectional study. Sports medicine center in primary care. Data from 627 treadmill maximal exercise tests performed by 433 pediatric athletes (age 13.7 ± 2.1 years, 70% males) were analyzed. Age, sex, sport type, stature, body mass, BMI, body fat, fitness level, resting, and MHR were recorded. To develop a prediction equation for MHR in youth, using stepwise multivariate linear regression and linear mixed model. To determine correlations between existing prediction equations and pediatric MHR. Observed MHR was 197 ± 8.6 b·min. Regression analysis revealed that resting heart rate, fitness, body mass, and fat percent were predictors of MHR (R = 0.25, P < 0.001), whereas age was not. Resting heart rate explained 15.6% of MHR variance, body mass added 5.7%, fat percent added 2.4%, and fitness added 1.2%. Existing adult equations had low correlations with observed MHR in children and adolescents (r = -0.03-0.34). A new equation to predict MHR in children and adolescents was developed, but was found to have low predictive ability, a finding similar to adult equations applied to children. Considering the narrow range of MHR in youth, we propose using 197 b·min as the mean MHR in children and adolescents, with 180 b·min the minimal threshold value (-2 standard deviations).

  15. Reliable activation to novel stimuli predicts higher fluid intelligence.

    PubMed

    Euler, Matthew J; Weisend, Michael P; Jung, Rex E; Thoma, Robert J; Yeo, Ronald A

    2015-07-01

    The ability to reliably respond to stimuli could be an important biological determinant of differences in fluid intelligence (Gf). However, most electrophysiological studies of Gf employ event-related potential (ERP) measures that average brain activity over trials, and hence have limited power to quantify neural variability. Time-frequency analyses can capture cross-trial variation in the phase of neural activity, and thus can help address the importance of neural reliability to differences in Gf. This study recruited a community sample of healthy adults and measured inter-trial phase clustering (ITPC), total spectral power, and ERP amplitudes elicited by Repeated and Novel non-target stimuli during two visual oddball tasks. Condition effects, relations among the EEG measures, and relations with Gf were assessed. Early visual responses to Repeated stimuli elicited higher ITPC, yet only ITPC elicited by Novel stimuli was associated with Gf. Analyses of spectral power further highlighted the contribution of phase consistency to the findings. The link between Gf and reliable responding to changing inputs suggests an important role for flexible resource allocation in fluid intellectual skills.

  16. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  17. Predicting basal metabolic rates in Malaysian adult elite athletes.

    PubMed

    Wong, Jyh Eiin; Poh, Bee Koon; Nik Shanita, Safii; Izham, Mohd Mohamad; Chan, Kai Quin; Tai, Meng De; Ng, Wei Wei; Ismail, Mohd Noor

    2012-11-01

    This study aimed to measure the basal metabolic rate (BMR) of elite athletes and develop a gender specific predictive equation to estimate their energy requirements. 92 men and 33 women (aged 18-31 years) from 15 sports, who had been training six hours daily for at least one year, were included in the study. Body composition was measured using the bioimpedance technique, and BMR by indirect calorimetry. The differences between measured and estimated BMR using various predictive equations were calculated. The novel equation derived from stepwise multiple regression was evaluated using Bland and Altman analysis. The predictive equations of Cunningham and the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization/United Nations University either over- or underestimated the measured BMR by up to ± 6%, while the equations of Ismail et al, developed from the local non-athletic population, underestimated the measured BMR by 14%. The novel predictive equation for the BMR of athletes was BMR (kcal/day) = 669 + 13 (weight in kg) + 192 (gender: 1 for men and 0 for women) (R2 0.548; standard error of estimates 163 kcal). Predicted BMRs of elite athletes by this equation were within 1.2% ± 9.5% of the measured BMR values. The novel predictive equation presented in this study can be used to calculate BMR for adult Malaysian elite athletes. Further studies may be required to validate its predictive capabilities for other sports, nationalities and age groups.

  18. A rate-dependent Hosford-Coulomb model for predicting ductile fracture at high strain rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcadet, Stephane J.; Roth, Christian C.; Erice, Borja; Mohr, Dirk

    2015-09-01

    The Hosford-Coulomb model incorporates the important effect of the Lode angle parameter in addition to the stress triaxiality to predict the initiation of ductile fracture. A strain-rate dependent extension of the Hosford-Coulomb model is presented to describe the results from low, intermediate and high strain rate fracture experiments on advanced high strength steels (DP590 and TRIP780). The model predictions agree well with the experimental observation of an increase in ductility as function of strain rate for stress states ranging from uniaxial to equi-biaxial tension.

  19. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  20. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  1. Predicting domains and rates of change in borderline personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Lenzenweger, Mark F; Clarkin, John F; Levy, Kenneth N; Yeomans, Frank E; Kernberg, Otto F

    2012-04-01

    What changes and how quickly these changes occur as a result of therapy in borderline personality disorder (BPD) is an important ongoing question. The features of BPD patients that are most predictive of rates of change in such patients remain largely unknown. Using the Cornell Personality Disorders Institute (CPDI) randomized controlled trial data, we sought to determine (a) the number and nature of broad domains underlying a large number of rate of change (slope) measures across many psychological, psychiatric, and psychosocial indexes, and (b) which baseline individual difference psychological features of the BPD patients correlated with these rate of change domains. We examined the latent structure of slope (rate of change) measures gleaned from individual growth curves for each subject, studied in multiwave perspective, on separate measures of anger, aggression, impulsivity, depression, global functioning, and social adjustment. Three broad domains of change rate could be discerned. These domains were reflected in factors that are described as (a) anger/aggression change ("aggressive dyscontrol"), (b) global functioning/social adjustment change ("social adjustment/self-acceptance"), and (c) anxiety/depression/impulsivity change ("conflict tolerance/behavioral control"). Factor scores were computed for each change domain and baseline measures of personality and psychodynamic features, selected a priori, were correlated with these factor scores. Multiple regression analyses revealed (a) baseline negative affectivity and aggression predicted the aggressive dyscontrol change domain, (b) baseline identity diffusion predicted the social adjustment/self-acceptance change domain, and (c) baseline social potency predicted the conflict tolerance/behavioral control change domain. These baseline predictors suggest potential research foci for understanding those aspects of BPD that change at comparable rates over time.

  2. Can student ratings of teaching be predicted by teaching styles?

    PubMed

    Chen, Guo-Hai; Watkins, David

    2010-04-01

    The relationship between teaching styles and student ratings of teaching was examined at a Chinese university. 388 teachers (170 men, 218 women) were invited to fill out the 49-item Teaching Styles Inventory (Grigorenko & Sternberg, 1993). The inventory measures seven teaching styles: legislative, judicial, liberal, global, executive, conservative, and local. Scores from students' evaluations of teaching of courses for one semester were collected. Students' evaluation scores were significantly and negatively related to executive and conservative teaching styles of their teachers, while no significant correlation was found between student ratings and any of the other five teaching styles. Only conservative teaching style contributed significantly to the prediction of student ratings. Sex and age were found to have moderating effects on the relationship between teaching style and student ratings. The role of teaching styles in student ratings was discussed.

  3. Higher event rate in patients with known CAD despite a normal myocardial perfusion scan

    PubMed Central

    Fatima, Nosheen; Zaman, Unaiza; Zaman, Areeba; Balcoh, Dad J.; Rasheed, S Zahed

    2014-01-01

    Objective The negative predictive value of a normal single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is very high. However, prognostic implication of a normal SPECT MPI in patients with known coronary artery disease (CAD) is not clear. Objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiac event rate in patients with known CAD who had a normal stress SPECT MPI. Methods This prospective study accrued 428 consecutive patients with a history of CAD [revascularization or previous myocardial infarction (MI)] who had a normal stress (dynamic exercise or dipyridamole intervention) and rest Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT MPI. These patients were followed for 2-5 years (median: 3.1 years) for all-cause and cardiac mortality and non-fatal MI. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of outcome. Results During a follow-up period, all-cause mortality was found in 60 patients (14%) and 41 (10%) died of cardiac reasons. Non-fatal MI was found in 77 (18%) patients. Annualized cardiac mortality and non-fatal MI rates were 2% and 3.6% respectively. Smoking, congestive heart failure (CHF) and failure to achieve 85% age predicted heart rate were found to be predictors for all-cause and cardiac mortality. Diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and limited functional capacity (<7 METS) were found to be predictors for non-fatal MI. Conclusions Patients with known CAD had higher cardiac event rates despite a normal stress SPECT MPI. Diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and limited functional capacity were the predictors for fatal and non-fatal cardiac events. A cost effective but comprehensive surveillance strategy is warranted. PMID:25009792

  4. Predicted maximal heart rate for upper body exercise testing.

    PubMed

    Hill, M; Talbot, C; Price, M

    2016-03-01

    Age-predicted maximal heart rate (HRMAX ) equations are commonly used for the purpose of prescribing exercise regimens, as criteria for achieving maximal exertion and for diagnostic exercise testing. Despite the growing popularity of upper body exercise in both healthy and clinical settings, no recommendations are available for exercise modes using the smaller upper body muscle mass. The purpose of this study was to determine how well commonly used age-adjusted prediction equations for HRMAX estimate actual HRMAX for upper body exercise in healthy young and older adults. A total of 30 young (age: 20 ± 2 years, height: 171·9 ± 32·8 cm, mass: 77·7 ± 12·6 kg) and 20 elderly adults (age: 66 ± 6 years, height: 162 ± 8·1 cm, mass: 65·3 ± 12·3 kg) undertook maximal incremental exercise tests on a conventional arm crank ergometer. Age-adjusted maximal heart rate was calculated using prediction equations based on leg exercise and compared with measured HRMAX data for the arms. Maximal HR for arm exercise was significantly overpredicted compared with age-adjusted prediction equations in both young and older adults. Subtracting 10-20 beats min(-1) from conventional prediction equations provides a reasonable estimate of HRMAX for upper body exercise in healthy older and younger adults. © 2014 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. With age a lower individual breathing reserve is associated with a higher maximal heart rate.

    PubMed

    Burtscher, Martin; Gatterer, Hannes; Faulhaber, Martin; Burtscher, Johannes

    2017-09-14

    Maximal heart rate (HRmax) is linearly declining with increasing age. Regular exercise training is supposed to partly prevent this decline, whereas sex and habitual physical activity do not. High exercise capacity is associated with a high cardiac output (HR x stroke volume) and high ventilatory requirements. Due to the close cardiorespiratory coupling, we hypothesized that the individual ventilatory response to maximal exercise might be associated with the age-related HRmax. Retrospective analyses have been conducted on the results of 129 consecutively performed routine cardiopulmonary exercise tests. The study sample comprised healthy subjects of both sexes of a broad range of age (20-86 years). Maximal values of power output, minute ventilation, oxygen uptake and heart rate were assessed by the use of incremental cycle spiroergometry. Linear multivariate regression analysis revealed that in addition to age the individual breathing reserve at maximal exercise was independently predictive for HRmax. A lower breathing reserve due to a high ventilatory demand and/or a low ventilatory capacity, which is more pronounced at a higher age, was associated with higher HRmax. Age explained the observed variance in HRmax by 72% and was improved to 83% when the variable "breathing reserve" was entered. The presented findings indicate an independent association between the breathing reserve at maximal exercise and maximal heart rate, i.e. a low individual breathing reserve is associated with a higher age-related HRmax. A deeper understanding of this association has to be investigated in a more physiological scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Why Are Child Poverty Rates Higher in Britain Than in Germany? A Longitudinal Perspective. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jenkins, Stephen P.; Schluter, Christian

    This study analyzed why child poverty rates were so much higher in Great Britain than in Western Germany during the 1990s, focusing on why child poverty exit rates were lower and child poverty entry rates were higher in Great Britain. Researchers used a form of decomposition analysis comparing cross-nationally the prevalence of events that…

  7. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ(j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j'-th time point where j≤j'≤j+n. To model the variation of φ(j), we assume that φ(j) depends on φ(j-m), φ(j-m+1),…, φ(j-1) and the interest rate rj+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value rj+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value rj+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate rj+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  8. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  9. Predicting Proton-Induced Single Event Upsets Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Robert Andrew

    Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event effects in some space radiation environments. A traversal by a single energetic particle that leads to a change in the information stored on a single memory element is known as a single event upset. The cross section for producing an upset can vary with the angle of incidence of the proton, depending on the dimensions of the sensitive volume and the critical charge. Satellites encounter a high proton flux region when they traverse the inner radiation belts in space. The goal of this research was to develop an algorithm for predicting proton-induced memory upset rates for orbits that cross these belts that includes the angular variations in the upset cross section. This required extending an existing Monte-Carlo code that simulates proton -induced spallation reactions in silicon to be capable of handling protons incident at any angle of incidence. These codes were used to predict upset cross sections. The radiation environment was modeled as a set of monoenergetic omnidirectional proton beams where the relative flux at each energy was predicted by AP8. The shielding that surrounds a device was assumed to be a six sided shell. Protons that traverse the shell will enter the device with a new energy. A shielding code was developed that translated each omnidirectional exposure into a new spectrum of energies. Each spectrum was used as input into the Monte-Carlo code which determined the angle-average upset cross section for that incident proton energy (i.e., the proton's energy before traversing the shielding). The upset rate was predicted from the cross section predictions and the flux prediction of AP8. Applying the codes to specific devices requires knowledge of the dimensions of the sensitive volume and the critical charge, i.e., the threshold energy that must be deposited in the sensitive volume to upset the device. These parameters were determined for four devices flown as part of the Microelectronic Package

  10. Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

  11. Predicting the Rate of Skin Penetration Using an Aggregated Conformal Prediction Framework.

    PubMed

    Lindh, Martin; Karlén, Anders; Norinder, Ulf

    2017-05-01

    Skin serves as a drug administration route, and skin permeability of chemicals is of significant interest in the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries. An aggregated conformal prediction (ACP) framework was used to build models for predicting the permeation rate (log Kp) of chemical compounds through human skin. The conformal prediction method gives as an output the prediction range at a given level of confidence for each compound, which enables the user to make a more informed decision when, for example, suggesting the next compound to prepare. Predictive models were built using both the random forest and the support vector machine methods and were based on experimentally derived permeability data on 211 diverse compounds. The derived models were of similar predictive quality as compared to earlier published models but have the extra advantage of not only presenting a single predicted value for each compound but also a reliable, individually assigned prediction range. The models use calculated descriptors and can quickly predict the skin permeation rate of new compounds.

  12. Nonideal statistical rate theory formulation to predict evaporation rates from equations of state.

    PubMed

    Kapoor, Atam; Elliott, Janet A W

    2008-11-27

    A method of including nonideal effects in the statistical rate theory (SRT) formulation is presented and a generic equation-of-state based SRT model was developed for predicting evaporation rates. Further, taking the Peng-Robinson equation of state as an example, vapor phase pressures at which particular evaporation rates are expected were calculated, and the predictions were found to be in excellent agreement with the experimental observations for water and octane. A high temperature range (near the critical region) where the previously existing ideal SRT model is expected to yield inaccurate results was identified and predictions (for ethane and butane) were instead made with the Peng-Robinson based SRT model to correct for fluid nonidealities at high temperatures and pressures.

  13. Estimating 1 min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulson, Kevin S.

    2017-01-01

    Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1 min rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen-Poiares Baptista method where 1 min rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of 6 h accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP, and these are linked to distributions of fine-scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK, and the extension to other regions is discussed.

  14. Supersonic jet noise reductions predicted with increased jet spreading rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Morris, Philip J.

    1995-03-01

    In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of the jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation analysis. A numerical prediction scheme is used for the mean flow providing an efficient method to obtain the mean flow development for various operating conditions and to simulate the enhanced mixing. Using far field radiated noise measurements as a reference, the calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of radiated noise.

  15. Supersonic Jet Noise Reductions Predicted with Increased Jet Spreading Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dahl, Milo D.; Morris, Philip J.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, predictions are made of noise radiation from single, supersonic, axisymmetric jets. We examine the effects of changes in operating conditions and the effects of simulated enhanced mixing that would increase the spreading rate of the jet shear layer on radiated noise levels. The radiated noise in the downstream direction is dominated by mixing noise and it is well described by the instability wave noise radiation analysis. A numerical prediction scheme is used for the mean flow providing an efficient method to obtain the mean flow development for various operating conditions and to simulate the enhanced mixing. Using far field radiated noise measurements as a reference, the calculations predict that enhanced jet spreading results in a reduction of radiated noise.

  16. The Increasing Predictive Validity of Self-Rated Health

    PubMed Central

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. PMID:24465452

  17. The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.

    PubMed

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not.

  18. Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

  19. Predicting evaporation rates and times for spills of chemical mixtures.

    PubMed

    Smith, R L

    2001-08-01

    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills and constrained baths of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, including liquid-phase non-idealities as expressed through the UNIFAC method for activity coefficients. A group-contribution method is also used to estimate vapor-phase diffusion coefficients, which makes the method completely predictive. The predictions are estimates that require professional judgement in their application. One application that the evaporation time calculations suggest is a method for labeling chemical containers that allows one to quickly assess the time for complete evaporation of spills of both pure components and mixtures. The labeling would take the form of an evaporation time that depends on the local environment. For instance, evaporation time depends on indoor or outdoor conditions and the amount of each chemical among other parameters. This labeling would provide rapid information and an opportunity to premeditate a response before a spill occurs.

  20. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  1. Prediction of trapping rates in mixtures of partially absorbing spheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kansal, Anuraag R.; Torquato, Salvatore

    2002-06-01

    The combined effects of diffusion and reaction in heterogeneous media govern the behavior of a wide variety of physical and biological phenomena, including the consumption of nutrients by cells and the study of magnetic relaxation in tissues. We have considered the so-called "trapping problem," in which diffusion takes place exterior to a collection of fixed traps while reaction occurs at their surface. A simulation technique for predicting the overall trapping rate for systems of partially absorbing spherical traps based on the first-passage spheres method is presented. Using data obtained by applying this simulation technique, we then consider the problem of mixtures of partially absorbing traps. By hypothesizing a method for reducing a general mixture of traps to a mixture of perfect absorbers and perfect reflectors (i.e., reducing the dimensionality of the space of variables), we are able to accurately predict the effective surface rate constant and the trapping rate for an arbitrary mixture of partially absorbing traps. Remarkably, we find that a single, nearly universal curve allows accurate predictions to be made over a wide range of trap volume fractions and even for different trap distributions.

  2. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  3. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  4. The Promise and Peril of Predictive Analytics in Higher Education: A Landscape Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ekowo, Manuela; Palmer, Iris

    2016-01-01

    Predictive analytics in higher education is a hot-button topic among educators and administrators as institutions strive to better serve students by becoming more data-informed. In this paper, the authors describe how predictive analytics are used in higher education to identify students who need extra support, steer students in courses they will…

  5. Prediction of microbial growth rate versus biomass yield by a metabolic network with kinetic parameters.

    PubMed

    Adadi, Roi; Volkmer, Benjamin; Milo, Ron; Heinemann, Matthias; Shlomi, Tomer

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the factors that determine microbial growth rate under various environmental and genetic conditions is a major challenge of systems biology. While current genome-scale metabolic modeling approaches enable us to successfully predict a variety of metabolic phenotypes, including maximal biomass yield, the prediction of actual growth rate is a long standing goal. This gap stems from strictly relying on data regarding reaction stoichiometry and directionality, without accounting for enzyme kinetic considerations. Here we present a novel metabolic network-based approach, MetabOlic Modeling with ENzyme kineTics (MOMENT), which predicts metabolic flux rate and growth rate by utilizing prior data on enzyme turnover rates and enzyme molecular weights, without requiring measurements of nutrient uptake rates. The method is based on an identified design principle of metabolism in which enzymes catalyzing high flux reactions across different media tend to be more efficient in terms of having higher turnover numbers. Extending upon previous attempts to utilize kinetic data in genome-scale metabolic modeling, our approach takes into account the requirement for specific enzyme concentrations for catalyzing predicted metabolic flux rates, considering isozymes, protein complexes, and multi-functional enzymes. MOMENT is shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of various metabolic phenotypes in E. coli, including intracellular flux rates and changes in gene expression levels under different growth rates. Most importantly, MOMENT is shown to predict growth rates of E. coli under a diverse set of media that are correlated with experimental measurements, markedly improving upon existing state-of-the art stoichiometric modeling approaches. These results support the view that a physiological bound on cellular enzyme concentrations is a key factor that determines microbial growth rate.

  6. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  7. Recovery rate prediction in lunar regolith simulant drilling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quan, Qiquan; Chen, Chongbin; Deng, Zongquan; Tang, Junyue; Jiang, Shengyuan

    2017-04-01

    Drilling and coring, as an effective way to acquire lunar regolith along the depth, is widely used in the field of planetary explorations. Because there is no relative sliding between the lunar regolith and the flexible tube, using the flexible tube coring method can acquire high recovery rate and keep the stratification of regolith samples. Very little work has been done to analyze the flexible tube coring process. A proper understanding of the coring process is necessary to develop the drilling strategy and verify whether the designed drill tool is appropriate. In this paper, two models are developed to analyze stress distribution in lunar regolith simulant during coring. Based on the developed models, a prediction method of recovery rate is developed to analyze the influence of the drilling parameters on the recovery rate. Comparison of the model calculation results with data of drilling and coring experiments demonstrated that the model based on the Terzaghi bearing theory can effectively predict the tendency when the recovery rate begins to decrease.

  8. Predicting the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial matter

    SciTech Connect

    Reedy, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The production rates of nuclides made by the galactic and solar cosmic rays are important in the interpretations of measurements made with lunar samples, meteorites, and cosmic spherules. Production rates of cosmogenic nuclides have been predicted by a variety of methods that are reviewed in this paper, ranging from systematic studies of one or a group of meteorites to purely theoretical calculations. Production rates can vary with the chemical composition and the preatmospheric depth of the sample and with the size and shape of the object. While the production systematics for cosmogenic nuclides are fairly well known, our ability to predict their production rates can be improved, with a corresponding increase in the scientific return. Additional detailed studies of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial objects are needed, especially for fairly small and very large objects. Nuclides made in simulation experiments and cross sections for many major nuclear reactions should be measured. Such studies are especially needed for the long-lived radionuclides that have only recently become readily measurable by accelerator mass spectrometry. 34 refs., 5 figs.

  9. Modified Rate-Theory Predictions in Comparison to Microstructural Data

    SciTech Connect

    Surh, M P; Okita, T; Wolfer, W G

    2003-11-03

    Standard rate theory methods have recently been combined with experimental microstructures to successfully reproduce measured swelling behavior in ternary steels around 400 C. Fit parameters have reasonable values except possibly for the recombination radius, R{sub c}, which can be larger than expected. Numerical simulations of void nucleation and growth reveal the importance additional recombination processes at unstable clusters. Such extra recombination may reduce the range of possible values for R{sub c}. A modified rate theory is presented here that includes the effect of these undetectably small defect clusters. The fit values for R{sub c} are not appreciably altered, as the modification has little effect on the model behavior in the late steady state. It slightly improves the predictions for early transient times, when the sink strength of stable voids and dislocations is relatively small. Standard rate theory successfully explains steady swelling behavior in high purity stainless steel.

  10. Predicting changes in volcanic activity through modelling magma ascent rate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Mark; Neuberg, Jurgen

    2013-04-01

    It is a simple fact that changes in volcanic activity happen and in retrospect they are easy to spot, the dissimilar eruption dynamics between an effusive and explosive event are not hard to miss. However to be able to predict such changes is a much more complicated process. To cause altering styles of activity we know that some part or combination of parts within the system must vary with time, as if there is no physical change within the system, why would the change in eruptive activity occur? What is unknown is which parts or how big a change is needed. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models that aim to answer these questions by assessing the influence of individual model parameters such as the dissolved water content or magma temperature. By altering these variables in a systematic manner we measure the effect of the changes by observing the modelled ascent rate. We use the ascent rate as we believe it is a very important indicator that can control the style of eruptive activity. In particular, we found that the sensitivity of the ascent rate to small changes in model parameters surprising. Linking these changes to observable monitoring data in a way that these data could be used as a predictive tool is the ultimate goal of this work. We will show that changes in ascent rate can be estimated by a particular type of seismicity. Low frequency seismicity, thought to be caused by the brittle failure of melt is often linked with the movement of magma within a conduit. We show that acceleration in the rate of low frequency seismicity can correspond to an increase in the rate of magma movement and be used as an indicator for potential changes in eruptive activity.

  11. An analytical prediction of pilot ratings utilizing human pilot model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tanaka, K.; Washizu, K.

    1982-01-01

    In order to analytically predict pilot ratings, an evaluation method of a manual control system which consists of an aircraft and a human pilot, is proposed and examined. The method is constructed upon the assumptions that the control mission determines the critical frequency the pilot should bring to his focus, and that the degree of closed-loop stability and the human compensation necessary to attain the stability determine the human subjective evaluation of the system. As a result, a simple evaluation chart is introduced. The chart enables prediction of the subjective evaluation, if the controlled element dynamics and the mission are given. The chart is in good accord with almost all of the existing results of pilot ratings. This method has the following advantages: (1) simplicity, in a sense that the method needs to evaluate only two typical controlled element parameters, namely, the gain slope and the phase at the critical control frequency; (2) applicability to unstable controlled elements; (3) predictability of controllability limits of manual control; (4) possibility of estimating human compensatory dynamics.

  12. Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

    PubMed

    Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

    2017-09-01

    Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

    2016-12-01

    Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

  14. Variations in the Rate at Which Students Cross the Boundaries between Australian Vocational and Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moodie, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the rate at which students are crossing the boundaries between Australian vocational and higher education. It finds that public universities admit a higher proportion of students on the basis of a vocational education qualification than do private colleges and that private colleges broadly do not admit a higher proportion of…

  15. Perceived Rates of Return to Higher Education: Further Evidence from Cyprus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria Eliophotou

    2008-01-01

    The paper provides new estimates of the perceived rates of return to higher education in Cyprus and compares them to previous estimates for the year 1994 in the same country. Both the elaborate and the short-cut methods are used in the estimation of rates of return. The estimated rates are entered as independent variables in logistic regression…

  16. Predicting the survival rate of mouse embryonic stem cells cryopreserved in alginate beads.

    PubMed

    Sambu, S; Xu, X; Ye, H; Cui, Z F

    2011-11-01

    Stem cell cryopreservation in three-dimensional (3D) scaffolds may offer better protection to cells leading to higher survival rates. However, it introduces heterogeneity in cryoprotective agent (CPA) concentrations, durations of exposure to CPA, and freezing and thawing rate within constructs. This paper applies a mathematical model which couples the mass transport of dimethyl sulphoxide (DMSO) in a cell-seeded spherical construct and cell membrane transport into mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) to predict overall cell survival rate (CSR) based on CPA equilibrium exposure times (t(E)) and concentrations. The effect of freeze-concentration is also considered. To enable such a prediction, a contour plot was constructed using experimental data obtained in cryopreservation of cell suspensions with DMSO at a cooling rate of 1 degrees C/min. Thereafter, the diffusion in the alginate bead and the membrane transport of CPA was numerically simulated. Results were mapped onto the survival rate contours yielding 'predicted' CSR. The effects of loading time, hindrance, construct radius, and CPA concentration on predicted CSR were examined. From these results, an operation window with upper and lower t(E) of 12-19 min (for 0.6 mm radius beads and 1.4 M DMSO) yielded an overall viability of 60 per cent. The model predictions and the best experimental cryopreservation results with encapsulated mESCs were in agreement. Hence, optimization based on post-thaw CSR can accelerate the identification of cryopreservation protocols and parameters for maximizing cell survival.

  17. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  18. Historical mutation rates predict susceptibility to radiation in Chernobyl birds.

    PubMed

    Møller, A P; Erritzøe, J; Karadas, F; Mousseau, T A

    2010-10-01

    Extreme environmental perturbations are rare, but may have important evolutionary consequences. Responses to current perturbations may provide important information about the ability of living organisms to cope with similar conditions in the evolutionary past. Radioactive contamination from Chernobyl constitutes one such extreme perturbation, with significant but highly variable impact on local population density and mutation rates of different species of animals and plants. We explicitly tested the hypothesis that species with strong impacts of radiation on abundance were those with high rates of historical mutation accumulation as reflected by cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA base-pair substitution rates during past environmental perturbations. Using a dataset of 32 species of birds, we show higher historical mitochondrial substitution rates in species with the strongest negative impact of local levels of radiation on local population density. These effects were robust to different estimates of impact of radiation on abundance, weighting of estimates of abundance by sample size, statistical control for similarity in the response among species because of common phylogenetic descent, and effects of population size and longevity. Therefore, species that respond strongly to the impact of radiation from Chernobyl are also the species that in the past have been most susceptible to factors that have caused high substitution rates in mitochondrial DNA. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  19. Predicting accelerated aggregation rates for monoclonal antibody formulations, and challenges for low-temperature predictions.

    PubMed

    Brummitt, Rebecca K; Nesta, Douglas P; Roberts, Christopher J

    2011-10-01

    Nonnative aggregation is a common degradation route for therapeutic proteins. Control of aggregate levels inherently requires control and/or prediction of aggregation rates at formulation conditions and storage temperatures of practical interest. Additionally, formulation screening often involves generation of accelerated stability data at one or more temperatures. A temperature-scanning approach for measuring nonnative aggregation rates as a function of temperature is proposed and evaluated here for a monoclonal antibody across different formulation conditions. Observed rate coefficients of aggregation (kobs ) were determined from isothermal kinetic studies for a range of pH and salt conditions at several temperatures, corresponding to shelf lives spanning multiple orders of magnitude. Isothermal kobs values were efficiently and quantitatively predicted by the temperature-scanning monomer loss (TSML) approach at accelerated conditions (half lives of the order 10(-1) -10(2) h). At lower temperatures, non-Arrhenius behavior was apparent in some cases, and was semi-quantitatively described by nonlinear van't Hoff contributions to monomer unfolding free energies. Overall, the results demonstrate a novel strategy to quantitatively determine aggregation rates at time scales of industrial interest, based on kobs values from TSML, which are sample- and time-sparing as compared with traditional isothermal approaches, and illustrate challenges for shelf-life prediction with non-Arrhenius kinetics. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Hemoglobin A1c predicts healing rate in diabetic wounds.

    PubMed

    Christman, Andrea L; Selvin, Elizabeth; Margolis, David J; Lazarus, Gerald S; Garza, Luis A

    2011-10-01

    Lower-extremity wounds are a major complication of diabetes. Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reflects glycemia over 2-3 months and is the standard measure used to monitor glycemia in diabetic patients, but results from studies have not shown a consistent association of HbA1c with wound healing. We hypothesized that elevated HbA1c would be most associated with poor wound healing. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 183 diabetic individuals treated at the Johns Hopkins Wound Center. Our primary outcome was wound-area healing rate (cm(2) per day). Calibrated tracings of digital images were used to measure wound area. We estimated coefficients for healing rate using a multiple linear regression model controlling for clustering of wounds within individuals and other common clinic variables. The study population was 45% female and 41% African American, with a mean age of 61 years. Mean HbA1c was 8.0%, and there were 2.3 wounds per individual (310 wounds total). Of all measures assessed, only HbA1c was significantly associated with wound-area healing rate. In particular, for each 1.0% point increase in HbA1c, the daily wound-area healing rate decreased by 0.028 cm(2) per day (95% confidence interval: 0.003, 0.0054, P = 0.027). Our results suggest that glycemia, as assessed by HbA1c, may be an important biomarker in predicting wound-healing rate in diabetic patients.JID JOURNAL CLUB ARTICLE: For questions, answers, and open discussion about this article, please go to http://www.nature.com/jid/journalclub.

  1. United States private schools have higher rates of exemptions to school immunization requirements than public schools.

    PubMed

    Shaw, Jana; Tserenpuntsag, Boldtsetseg; McNutt, Louise-Anne; Halsey, Neal

    2014-07-01

    To compare medical, religious, and personal belief immunization exemption rates between private and public schools in US. Exemption rates were calculated using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention School Immunization Assessment Surveys for the 2009-2010 school year excluding states with incomplete survey data. Standardized exemption rates weighted on enrollments in public and private schools were calculated. Differences in exemption rates between public and private schools were tested using Wilcoxon signed rank test. The overall state exemption rate was higher in US private than public schools, 4.25% (SD 4.27) vs 1.91% (1.67), P = .0001 and private schools had higher exemption rates for all types of exemptions; medical 0.58% (0.71) vs 0.34% (0.34) respectively (P = .0004), religious 2.09% (3.14) vs 0.83% (1.05) respectively (P = .0001), and personal belief 6.10% (4.12) vs 2.79% (1.57), respectively (P = .006). Overall exemption rates were significantly higher in states that allowed personal belief exemptions. Exemption rates were significantly higher in US private than in public schools. Children attending private schools may be at higher risk of vaccine-preventable diseases than public school children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. FRB Event Rate Predictions for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Bera, Apurba; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Ramesh Bhat, N. D.; Chengalur, Jayaram N.

    2017-03-01

    We developed a generic formalism to estimate the event rate and the redshift distribution of Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) in our previous publication (Bera et al. 2016), considering FRBs are of an extragalactic origin. In this paper, we present (a) the predicted pulse widths of FRBs by considering two different scattering models, (b) the minimum total energy required to detect events, (c) the redshift distribution and (d) the detection rates of FRBs for the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA). The energy spectrum of FRBs is modelled as a power law with an exponent - α and our analysis spans a range -3≤ α≤5. We find that OWFA will be capable of detecting FRBs with α≥0. The redshift distribution and the event rates of FRBs are estimated by assuming two different energy distribution functions; a Delta function and a Schechter luminosity function with an exponent -2≤ γ≤2. We consider an empirical scattering model based on pulsar observations (model I) as well as a theoretical model (model II) expected for the intergalactic medium. The redshift distributions peak at a particular redshift z p for a fixed value of α, which lie in the range 0.3≤ z p ≤1 for the scattering model I and remain flat and extend up to high redshifts ( z≲5) for the scattering model II.

  3. Higher Order Convergence Rates in Theory of Homogenization: Equations of Non-divergence Form

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sunghan; Lee, Ki-Ahm

    2016-03-01

    We establish higher order convergence rates in the theory of periodic homogenization of both linear and fully nonlinear uniformly elliptic equations of non-divergence form. The rates are achieved by involving higher order correctors which fix the errors occurring both in the interior and on the boundary layer of our physical domain. The proof is based on a viscosity method and a new regularity theory which captures the stability of the correctors with respect to the shape of our limit profile.

  4. Prediction of the growth rates of VDEs in JET

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albanese, R.; Mattei, M.; Villone, F.

    2004-09-01

    In this paper we show that the effect of the saddle currents in the rigid sectors slows down the vertical instability of JET elongated plasmas with respect to estimates based on pure axisymmetric models. This, together with an accurate description of the passive structures, significantly improves the agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results. Linearized models taking into account the three-dimensional effects of the eddy currents have been applied to various JET pulses; the growth rates have been estimated within an accuracy of less than 5% for plasmas with a growth time longer than 2 ms. This model can be used for JET and extended to ITER-FEAT to provide a reliable test bed for assessing the performance of the vertical control system and obtain an estimate of the loads on the structures during vertical displacement events (VDEs) and plasma disruptions.

  5. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    PubMed

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. 26 CFR 301.6621-3 - Higher interest rate payable on large corporate underpayments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Higher interest rate payable on large corporate underpayments. 301.6621-3 Section 301.6621-3 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION Interest Interest on Underpayments § 301.6621-3 Higher interest...

  7. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

  8. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

  9. Sediment rating curve & Co. - a contest of prediction methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francke, T.; Zimmermann, A.

    2012-04-01

    In spite of the recent technological progress in sediment monitoring, often the calculation of sediment yield (SSY) still relies on intermittent measurements because of the use of historic records, instrument-failure in continuous recording or financial constraints. Therefore, available measurements are usually inter- and even extrapolated using the sediment rating curve approach, which uses continuously available discharge data to predict sediment concentrations. Extending this idea by further aspects like the inclusion of other predictors (e.g. rainfall, discharge-characteristics, etc.), or the consideration of prediction uncertainty led to a variety of new methods. Now, with approaches such as Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Tree-based regression, GLMs, etc., the user is left to decide which method to apply. Trying multiple approaches is usually not an option, as considerable effort and expertise may be needed for their application. To establish a helpful guideline in selecting the most appropriate method for SSY-computation, we initiated a study to compare and rank available methods. Depending on problem attributes like hydrological and sediment regime, number of samples, sampling scheme, and availability of ancillary predictors, the performance of different methods is compared. Our expertise allowed us to "register" Random Forests, Quantile Regression Forests and GLMs for the contest. To include many different methods and ensure their sophisticated use we invite scientists that are willing to benchmark their favourite method(s) with us. The more diverse the participating methods are, the more exciting the contest will be.

  10. Policy and Prediction: The Case of Institutional Diversity in Romanian Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vlasceanu, Lazar; Hâncean, Marian-Gabriel

    2012-01-01

    Presenting key elements of post-1990 historical developments in the Romanian higher education system, the emphasis is put on recent (2011) policies of increasing higher education institutional differentiation. The view is that, in policy design, due attention should be paid to both historical roots and predicted developments. Building on an…

  11. 1984-2008. Predictions for Higher Education. From the 25th Anniversary Colloquium. [Proceedings].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hardee, Melvene Draheim, Ed.

    Predictions on higher education for 1984-2009 are presented in the proceedings of a colloquium of the Institute for Studies in Higher Education of Florida State University. Presentations were made at the colloquium by 10 graduates of the university whose current positions represent administration-management, instruction, research, and student…

  12. Asthma in African Americans: what can we do about the higher rates of disease?

    PubMed

    Silvers, Stacy K; Lang, David M

    2012-03-01

    African Americans not only have a higher prevalence of asthma than whites, they also are encumbered with higher rates of asthma-associated morbidity and death. Factors such as genetics, socioeconomic status, health maintenance behaviors, air quality, and obesity likely contribute in combination to these burdens. Further work is needed to better understand these complex risk factors. To remedy these disparities, we need to ensure that patients at higher risk are given proper care and the knowledge to control their asthma.

  13. Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

    2014-01-01

    In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

  14. Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

    2014-01-01

    In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

  15. Theoretical prediction of regression rates in swirl-injection hybrid rocket engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozawa, K.; Shimada, T.

    2016-07-01

    The authors theoretically and analytically predict what times regression rates of swirl injection hybrid rocket engines increase higher than the axial injection ones by estimating heat flux from boundary layer combustion to the fuel port. The schematic of engines is assumed as ones whose oxidizer is injected from the opposite side of the nozzle such as ones of Yuasa et al. propose. To simplify the estimation, we assume some hypotheses such as three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric flows have been assumed. The results of this prediction method are largely consistent with Yuasa's experiments data in the range of high swirl numbers.

  16. Lifespan Mental Activity Predicts Diminished Rate of Hippocampal Atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Valenzuela, Michael J.; Sachdev, Perminder; Wen, Wei; Chen, Xiaohua; Brodaty, Henry

    2008-01-01

    Objective Epidemiological studies suggest that complex mental activity may reduce the risk for dementia, however an underlying mechanism remains unclear. Our objective was to determine whether individual differences in lifespan complex mental activity are linked to altered rates of hippocampal atrophy independent of global measures of neurodegeneration. Methods Thirty seven healthy older individuals had their complex mental activity levels estimated using the Lifetime of Experiences Questionnaire (LEQ) and completed serial MRI investigations at baseline and three years follow-up. Hippocampal volume and semi-automatic quantitation of whole brain volume (WBV) and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) were compared at both time points. Results Higher LEQ scores were correlated with hippocampal volume independent of covariates at the three year follow-up stage (r = 0.43, p = 0.012). Moreover, those with higher LEQ scores experienced less hippocampal atrophy over the follow-up period (r = 0.41, p = 0.02). High LEQ individuals had less than half the hippocampal volume decline of low LEQ individuals in a multivariate analysis (F = 4.47, p = 0.042). No parallel changes were found in measures of WBV and WMHs. Conclusions High level of complex mental activity across the lifespan was correlated with a reduced rate of hippocampal atrophy. This finding could not be explained by general differences in intracranial volume, larger hippocampi at baseline, presence of hypertensive disease, gender or low mood. Our results suggest that neuroprotection in medial temporal lobe may be one mechanism underlying the link between mental activity and lower rates of dementia observed in population-based studies. Additional studies are required to further explore this novel finding. PMID:18612379

  17. Predicted functional RNAs within coding regions constrain evolutionary rates of yeast proteins.

    PubMed

    Warden, Charles D; Kim, Seong-Ho; Yi, Soojin V

    2008-02-13

    Functional RNAs (fRNAs) are being recognized as an important regulatory component in biological processes. Interestingly, recent computational studies suggest that the number and biological significance of functional RNAs within coding regions (coding fRNAs) may have been underestimated. We hypothesized that such coding fRNAs will impose additional constraint on sequence evolution because the DNA primary sequence has to simultaneously code for functional RNA secondary structures on the messenger RNA in addition to the amino acid codons for the protein sequence. To test this prediction, we first utilized computational methods to predict conserved fRNA secondary structures within multiple species alignments of Saccharomyces sensu strico genomes. We predict that as much as 5% of the genes in the yeast genome contain at least one functional RNA secondary structure within their protein-coding region. We then analyzed the impact of coding fRNAs on the evolutionary rate of protein-coding genes because a decrease in evolutionary rate implies constraint due to biological functionality. We found that our predicted coding fRNAs have a significant influence on evolutionary rates (especially at synonymous sites), independent of other functional measures. Thus, coding fRNA may play a role on sequence evolution. Given that coding regions of humans and flies contain many more predicted coding fRNAs than yeast, the impact of coding fRNAs on sequence evolution may be substantial in genomes of higher eukaryotes.

  18. Association between Higher Rates of Cardioprotective Drug Use and Survival in Patients on Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yuexin; Brooks, John M.; Wetmore, James B.; Shireman, Theresa I.

    2015-01-01

    Background While cardiovascular (CV) disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on chronic dialysis, utilization rates of cardioprotective drugs for dialysis patients remain low. This study sought to determine whether higher rates of cardioprotective drug use among dialysis patients might increase survival. Methods A retrospective cohort of incident dialysis patients (n = 50,468) with dual eligibility for U.S. Medicare and Medicaid was constructed using USRDS data linked with billing claims. Medication exposures included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), β-blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) prescribed within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The outcomes were one- and two-year survival and CV event-free survival. Variation in treatment rates based on local area practice styles were used as instruments in instrumental variable (IV) estimation, yielding average treatment effect estimates for patients whose treatment choices were affected by local area practice styles. Results Patients aged 65 years and older comprised 47.4% of the sample, while 59.5% were female and 35.0% were white. The utilization rate was 40.7% for ACEIs/ARBs, 43.0% for β-blockers, 50.7% for CCBs and 26.4% for statins. The local area practice style instruments were highly significantly related to cardioprotective drug use in dialysis patients (Chow-F values > 10). IV estimates showed only that higher rates of β-blockers increased one-year survival (β = 0.161, P-value = 0.020) and CV event-free survival (β = 0.189, P-value = 0.033), but that higher rates of CCBs decreased two-year CV event-free survival (β = -0.520, P-value = 0.009). Conclusions This study suggests that higher utilization rates of β-blockers might yield higher survival rates for dialysis patients. However, higher rates of the other drugs studied had no correlations with survival, and higher CCB rates

  19. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    PubMed Central

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  20. Unfolded protein ensembles, folding trajectories, and refolding rate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, A.; Sin, B. K.; Mohazab, A. R.; Plotkin, S. S.

    2013-09-01

    Computer simulations can provide critical information on the unfolded ensemble of proteins under physiological conditions, by explicitly characterizing the geometrical properties of the diverse conformations that are sampled in the unfolded state. A general computational analysis across many proteins has not been implemented however. Here, we develop a method for generating a diverse conformational ensemble, to characterize properties of the unfolded states of intrinsically disordered or intrinsically folded proteins. The method allows unfolded proteins to retain disulfide bonds. We examined physical properties of the unfolded ensembles of several proteins, including chemical shifts, clustering properties, and scaling exponents for the radius of gyration with polymer length. A problem relating simulated and experimental residual dipolar couplings is discussed. We apply our generated ensembles to the problem of folding kinetics, by examining whether the ensembles of some proteins are closer geometrically to their folded structures than others. We find that for a randomly selected dataset of 15 non-homologous 2- and 3-state proteins, quantities such as the average root mean squared deviation between the folded structure and unfolded ensemble correlate with folding rates as strongly as absolute contact order. We introduce a new order parameter that measures the distance travelled per residue, which naturally partitions into a smooth "laminar" and subsequent "turbulent" part of the trajectory. This latter conceptually simple measure with no fitting parameters predicts folding rates in 0 M denaturant with remarkable accuracy (r = -0.95, p = 1 × 10-7). The high correlation between folding times and sterically modulated, reconfigurational motion supports the rapid collapse of proteins prior to the transition state as a generic feature in the folding of both two-state and multi-state proteins. This method for generating unfolded ensembles provides a powerful approach to

  1. Heart rate variability predicts the magnitude of heart rate decrease after fingolimod initiation.

    PubMed

    Simula, Sakari; Laitinen, Tomi P; Laitinen, Tiina M; Hartikainen, Päivi; Hartikainen, Juha Ek

    2016-11-01

    Fingolimod is an immunomodulator with a disease modifying effect on relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). A heart rate (HR) decrease shortly after fingolimod initiation, however, requires a clinical vigilance. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate whether cardiac autonomic regulation can predict the magnitude of HR decrease after fingolimod initiation. Twenty-five patients with RRMS underwent ambulatory 24-h electrocardiogram recording to assess HR variability 20±16 days before fingolimod initiation (baseline) and repeated at the day of fingolimod initiation to assess the magnitude of HR decrease. The percentage of normal RR-intervals with duration more than 50ms different from the previous normal RR-interval (pNN50) was calculated (among the other HR variability parameters) to assess cardiac autonomic regulation. The maximal HR decrease (ΔHR) after the first dose of fingolimod was assessed in absolute units (beats/min) and in percentage (%). The maximal ΔHR was -20±11 beats/min (-23±12%) on the average. pNN50 calculated at baseline correlated with ΔHR% (r=-0.657, p<0.001). A HR decrease ≥20% was found in 10/14 patients with pNN50≥10%. The positive and negative predictive values of pNN50≥10% to predict ΔHR≥20% were 83% and 69%, respectively leading to accuracy of 76%. Cardiac autonomic regulation (pNN50>10%) at baseline can be used to predict the magnitude of HR decrease after the first dose of fingolimod. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01704183). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process. Results Using a new database of 13 time-calibrated angiosperm phylogenies based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and controlling for extrinsic variables of life history and habitat, I evaluated several potential intrinsic causes of this correlation. Speciation rates (λ) and relative extinction rates (ε) were positively correlated with mean substitution rates, but were uncorrelated with substitution rate heterogeneity. It is unlikely that the positive diversification-substitution correlation is due to accelerated molecular evolution during speciation (e.g., via enhanced selection or drift), because punctuated increases in ITS rate (i.e., greater mean and variation in ITS rate for rapidly speciating clades) were not observed. Instead, fast molecular evolution likely increases speciation rate (via increased mutational variation as a substrate for selection and reproductive isolation) but also increases extinction (via mutational genetic load). Conclusions In general, these results predict that clades with higher background substitution rates may undergo successful diversification under new conditions while clades with lower substitution rates may experience decreased extinction during environmental stasis. PMID:20515493

  3. Preliminary data suggest rates of male military sexual trauma may be higher than previously reported.

    PubMed

    Sheppard, Sean C; Hickling, Edward J; Earleywine, Mitch; Hoyt, Tim; Russo, Amanda R; Donati, Matthew R; Kip, Kevin E

    2015-11-01

    Stigma associated with disclosing military sexual trauma (MST) makes estimating an accurate base rate difficult. Anonymous assessment may help alleviate stigma. Although anonymous research has found higher rates of male MST, no study has evaluated whether providing anonymity sufficiently mitigates the impact of stigma on accurate reporting. This study used the unmatched count technique (UCT), a form of randomized response techniques, to gain information about the accuracy of base rate estimates of male MST derived via anonymous assessment of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) combat veterans. A cross-sectional convenience sample of 180 OEF/OIF male combat veterans, recruited via online websites for military populations, provided data about history of MST via traditional anonymous self-report and the UCT. The UCT revealed a rate of male MST more than 15 times higher than the rate derived via traditional anonymous assessment (1.1% vs. 17.2%). These data suggest that anonymity does not adequately mitigate the impact of stigma on disclosure of male MST. Results, though preliminary, suggest that published rates of male MST may substantially underestimate the true rate of this problem. The UCT has significant potential to improve base rate estimation of sensitive behaviors in the military.

  4. Off Limits to Asian Americans? Predicting the Pursuit of Higher Education Administration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gin, Deborah Hearn-Chung

    2013-01-01

    Asian/Pacific Islanders (APIs) in the U.S. have experienced an increase in population, and higher education faculty, rates over the past two decades. However, a parallel increase among API higher education administrators is absent. To explore this disparity, this study surveyed all 180 Asian/Asian North American (AANA) faculty in graduate schools…

  5. Curvilinear formulae for predicting peak expiratory flow rate in adult Nigerians.

    PubMed

    Njoku, C H; Anah, C O

    2001-01-01

    Predicted values of Peak expiratory flow rate (PEF) using linear formulae do not closely agree with observed trends. Predicted values tend to be higher than observed values among youths and the elderly while they are usually lower than observed values among people within the prime of life. All prediction formulae in Nigeria are linear. In this study, more fitting curvilinear formulae were derived for male and female subjects from PEF values obtained from a study of 1009 subjects made up of 668 males and 341 females between the ages of 15 and 82 years living and/or working in Port Harcourt, Nigeria and its environs. We hope that these formulae may be put to greater use since they agree more closely with the observed trends.

  6. St. Gallen endocrine response classes predict recurrence rates over time.

    PubMed

    Koornstra, R H T; Beelen, K J; Vincent, A D; van der Noort, V; van Diest, P J; Linn, S C

    2015-12-01

    In 2007 the St. Gallen consensus panel defined three endocrine response classes: highly endocrine responsive (ER-H), incomplete endocrine responsive (ER-I) and non-endocrine responsive tumours (ER-N). However, it is uncertain whether ER-I tumours are less responsive than ER-H tumours. We investigated whether recurrence rates vary over time between response classes. Additionally, we investigated the most predictive response class definition for tamoxifen benefit. We recollected tumours from 646 patients who participated in a randomized trial of adjuvant tamoxifen vs. Estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), HER2 status and tumour grade were revised centrally. St. Gallen classes were evaluated for recurrence free interval (RFI). Change in hazards over time was assessed. Subsequently, 6 alternative response class definitions were compared to optimize the cut-off for PgR and ER. Schoenfeld residuals indicate a failure of proportional hazards between the endocrine response groups (p = 0.0001). The HR for recurrence risk shifted over time with the ER-H group initially being at lower risk (HR ER-H vs. ER-I 0.5), but after six years the recurrence risk increased (HR 1.9). The cut-off values for ER and PgR that statistically best discriminated RFI in the first 4 years for lymph node positive patients were ER ≥ 50% and PgR ≥ 75%. We demonstrated a marked variability in endocrine therapy benefit. Patients with ER-H tumours have a larger benefit during adjuvant tamoxifen and in the first years after accomplishing of the therapy, but suffer from late recurrences. This might have implications for optimal treatment duration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Does the Economic Crisis Have an Influence on the Higher Education Dropout Rate?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leão Fernandes, Graça; Chagas Lopes, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to identify the effects of the economic crisis on higher education (HE) dropout rates at Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG)--Universidade de Lisboa, after having controlled for individual characteristics, family background, High School and HE trajectories. Our main hypothesis is that the economic crisis induces…

  8. Retention in Higher Education: Faculty and Student Perceptions of Retention Programs and Factors Impacting Attrition Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mansfield, Malinda; O'Leary, Erin; Webb, Shekeita

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine faculty and student perceptions of what factors are contributing to drop-out rates in a Northern Indiana higher educational facility and to study whether or not the drop-out prevention programs that are in place are effective. Survey links were sent out to all adjuncts and some full-time faculty at a local…

  9. Indigenous Australian Students' Participation Rates in Higher Education: Exploring the Role of Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pechenkina, Ekaterina; Kowal, Emma; Paradies, Yin

    2011-01-01

    Indigenous Australians are underrepresented and considerably disadvantaged within the Australian system of higher education. The various measures taken by Australian universities over the past decades have produced varying levels of success in increasing Indigenous participation and completion rates. In order to continue improving Indigenous…

  10. Does the Economic Crisis Have an Influence on the Higher Education Dropout Rate?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leão Fernandes, Graça; Chagas Lopes, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to identify the effects of the economic crisis on higher education (HE) dropout rates at Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG)--Universidade de Lisboa, after having controlled for individual characteristics, family background, High School and HE trajectories. Our main hypothesis is that the economic crisis induces…

  11. Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

  12. Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

  13. Reading the IT Leaves: Four Predictions for Higher Education Technology in 2011

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grush, Mary

    2011-01-01

    No start to the new year is complete without media prognostications for the 12 months ahead. Leaving the social, political, and economic fad predictions to others, "CT" asked four members of its editorial and conference advisory boards to identify information technology trends in higher education that are beginning to take real hold in 2011--the…

  14. Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

  15. Attempting to Predict Withdrawal from Higher Education Using Demographic, Psychological and Educational Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charlton, John P.; Barrow, Corinne; Hornby-Atkinson, Pat

    2006-01-01

    Demographic, psychological and secondary level examination measures were obtained at the start of undergraduate courses in an attempt to predict first-year higher education (HE) withdrawal. As usual, withdrawal was greatest for males. Overall, intrinsic motivation and independent study expectations were better predictors of withdrawal than…

  16. Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

  17. Slow infusion rate of doxorubicin induces higher pro-inflammatory cytokine production.

    PubMed

    Tien, Chin-Chieh; Peng, Yi-Chi; Yang, Fwu-Lin; Subeq, Yi-Maun; Lee, Ru-Ping

    2016-11-01

    Different infusion rates of doxorubicin (DOX) have been used for treating human malignancies. Organ toxicity after DOX infusion is a major issue in treatment disruption. However, whether different DOX infusion rates induce different toxicity is still unknown. In this study, we examined the toxicity effects of different DOX infusion rates in the early phase of organ toxicity. Thirty-six rats were randomly divided into 5-, 15-, and 30-min infusion rate groups. A single dose of DOX (8.3 mg/kg, I.V.) was administered at different infusion rates. Blood samples were collected from the femoral artery at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, 36, and 48 h after DOX administration. The blood cell count and blood biochemistry were analyzed. The liver, kidney, and heart were removed for pathological examinations after the rats were sacrificed. Our findings show that the 30-min group had higher injury markers in the liver (glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase and glutamic pyruvic transaminase), kidneys (blood urea nitrogen and creatinine), and heart (creatine phosphokinase-MB and lactate dehydrogenase), and had higher tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin 6 levels than did the other groups. The 30-min group also had more severe damage according to the pathological examinations. In conclusion, slower infusion of DOX induced a higher inflammatory response and greater organ damage.

  18. Prediction of glomerular filtration rate from serum concentration of cystatin C: comparison of two analytical methods.

    PubMed

    Donadio, Carlo; Kanaki, Angeliki; Caprio, Francesca; Donadio, Elena; Tognotti, Danika; Olivieri, Luigi

    2012-07-01

    The aim of this study was to compare two methods used to measure serum cystatin C (Cys) and their accuracy to predict glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Three hundred and sixty-seven adult chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with different functional impairments participated in this study. GFR was determined as the renal clearance of 99mTc-DTPA. Serum concentrations of cystatin C (SCys) were determined with an immunonephelometric method and with an immunoturbidimetric method. A very high linear correlation was found between the two measurements of SCys (r=0.929). The mean difference of SCysTurb-SCysNeph was 0.02±0.43 mg/L (not significant). A high logarithmic correlation was also found between SCys and GFR (r was 0.919 for SCysNeph and 0.937 for SCysTurb). By means of multiple regression analysis, we developed formulae to predict GFR from SCysNeph, SCysTurb and SCr. For comparison, GFR was predicted using published formulae. A good agreement was found between predicted GFR and measured GFR. The results showed that the accuracy of SCysNeph, SCysTurb and SCr and of the different prediction formulae were quite similar. The immunoturbidimetric method seems adequate to measure SCys and to predict GFR and its impairment in CKD, at least similar to the immunonephelometric method. The accuracy of SCys and of derived formulae was not higher than that of SCr and SCr-based formulae.

  19. Alcohol-Dependent Individuals Discount Sex at Higher Rates than Controls

    PubMed Central

    Jarmolowicz, David P.; Bickel, Warren K.; Gatchalian, Kirstin M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Research on delay discounting has expanded our understanding of substance dependence in many ways. Recently, orderly discounting of sexual rewards has been demonstrated in both substance-dependent individuals, and healthy controls. Less clear, however, is if rates of sexual discounting are higher than controls in alcohol-dependent-individuals. Methods 20 Alcohol-dependent individuals and 21 healthy control participants completed two delay-discounting tasks. One task involved monetary rewards, whereas the other involved the discounting of sexual rewards (i.e., number of sex acts). Results Alcohol dependent individuals discounted sexual rewards at significantly higher rates than did controls. There was a trend towards, but not a similarly significant relation for the discounting of monetary rewards. Conclusions Rates of sexual discounting are elevated in alcohol dependent individuals. If this relation is replicated in other at risk populations, the rapid devaluation of sexual rewards may be a behavioral marker of impulsive sexual choices. PMID:23312341

  20. Validity of predictive equations for basal metabolic rate in Japanese adults.

    PubMed

    Miyake, Rieko; Tanaka, Shigeho; Ohkawara, Kazunori; Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko; Hikihara, Yuki; Taguri, Emiko; Kayashita, Jun; Tabata, Izumi

    2011-01-01

    Many predictive equations for basal metabolic rate (BMR) based on anthropometric measurements, age, and sex have been developed, mainly for healthy Caucasians. However, it has been reported that many of these equations, used widely, overestimate BMR not only for Asians, but also for Caucasians. The present study examined the accuracy of several predictive equations for BMR in Japanese subjects. In 365 healthy Japanese male and female subjects, aged 18 to 79 y, BMR was measured in the post-absorptive state using a mask and Douglas bag. Six predictive equations were examined. Total error was used as an index of the accuracy of each equation's prediction. Predicted BMR values by Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Japan-DRI), Adjusted Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Adjusted-DRI), and Ganpule equations were not significantly different from the measured BMR in either sex. On the other hand, Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization/United Nations University equations were significantly higher than the measured BMR in both sexes. The prediction error by Japan-DRI, Adjusted-DRI, and Harris-Benedict equations was significantly correlated with body weight in both sexes. Total error using the Ganpule equation was low in both males and females (125 and 99 kcal/d, respectively). In addition, total error using the Adjusted-DRI equation was low in females (95 kcal/d). Thus, the Ganpule equation was the most accurate in predicting BMR in our healthy Japanese subjects, because the difference between the predicted and measured BMR was relatively small, and body weight had no effect on the prediction error.

  1. Reliability of single-item ratings of quality in higher education: a replication.

    PubMed

    Ginns, Paul; Barrie, Simon

    2004-12-01

    Single-item ratings of the quality of instructors or subjects are widely used by higher education institutions, yet such ratings are commonly assumed to have inadequate psychometric properties. Recent research has demonstrated that reliability of such ratings can indeed be estimated, using either the correction for attenuation formula or factor analytic methods. This study replicates prior research on the reliability of single-item ratings of quality of instruction, using a different, more student-focussed approach to teaching and learning evaluation than used by previous researchers. Class average data from 1,097 classes, representing responses from 59,815 students, were analysed. At the "class" level of analysis, both methods of estimation suggested the single item of quality had high reliability: .96 using the correction for attenuation formula, and .94 using the factor analytic method. An alternative method of calculating reliability, which takes into account the hierarchical nature of the data, likewise suggested high estimated reliability (.92) of the single-item rating. These results indicate the suitability of the overall class rating for quality improvement in higher education, with a large sample.

  2. Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

    2016-12-01

    Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

  3. Medicaid status is associated with higher surgical site infection rates after spine surgery.

    PubMed

    Manoso, Mark W; Cizik, Amy M; Bransford, Richard J; Bellabarba, Carlo; Chapman, Jens; Lee, Michael J

    2014-09-15

    The Spine End Results Registry (2003-2004) is a registry of prospectively collected data of all patients undergoing spinal surgery at the University of Washington Medical Center and Harborview Medical Center. Insurance data were prospectively collected and used in multivariate analysis to determine risk of perioperative complications. Given the negative financial impact of surgical site infections (SSIs) and the higher overall complication rates of patients with a Medicaid payer status, we hypothesized that a Medicaid payer status would have a significantly higher SSI rate. The medical literature demonstrates lesser outcomes and increased complication rates in patients who have public insurance than those who have private insurance. No one has shown that patients with a Medicaid payer status compared with Medicare and privately insured patients have a significantly increased SSI rate for spine surgery. The prospectively collected Spine End Results Registry provided data for analysis. SSI was defined as treatment requiring operative debridement. Demographic, social, medical, and the surgical severity index risk factors were assessed against the exposure of payer status for the surgical procedure. The population included Medicare (N = 354), Medicaid (N = 334), the Veterans' Administration (N = 39), private insurers (N = 603), and self-pay (N = 42). Those patients whose insurer was Medicaid had a 2.06 odds (95% confidence interval: 1.19-3.58, P = 0.01) of having a SSI compared with the privately insured. The study highlights the increased cost of spine surgical procedures for patients with a Medicaid payer status with the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 provisions could cause a reduction in reimbursement to the hospital for taking care of patients with Medicaid insurance due to their higher complication rates and higher costs. This very issue could inadvertently lead to access

  4. Incorporating higher-order representative features improves prediction in network-based cancer prognosis analysis.

    PubMed

    Ma, Shuangge; Kosorok, Michael R; Huang, Jian; Dai, Ying

    2011-01-12

    In cancer prognosis studies with gene expression measurements, an important goal is to construct gene signatures with predictive power. In this study, we describe the coordination among genes using the weighted coexpression network, where nodes represent genes and nodes are connected if the corresponding genes have similar expression patterns across samples. There are subsets of nodes, called modules, that are tightly connected to each other. In several published studies, it has been suggested that the first principal components of individual modules, also referred to as "eigengenes", may sufficiently represent the corresponding modules. In this article, we refer to principal components and their functions as representative features". We investigate higher-order representative features, which include the principal components other than the first ones and second order terms (quadratics and interactions). Two gradient thresholding methods are adopted for regularized estimation and feature selection. Analysis of six prognosis studies on lymphoma and breast cancer shows that incorporating higher-order representative features improves prediction performance over using eigengenes only. Simulation study further shows that prediction performance can be less satisfactory if the representative feature set is not properly chosen. This study introduces multiple ways of defining the representative features and effective thresholding regularized estimation approaches. It provides convincing evidence that the higher-order representative features may have important implications for the prediction of cancer prognosis.

  5. Incorporating higher-order representative features improves prediction in network-based cancer prognosis analysis

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In cancer prognosis studies with gene expression measurements, an important goal is to construct gene signatures with predictive power. In this study, we describe the coordination among genes using the weighted coexpression network, where nodes represent genes and nodes are connected if the corresponding genes have similar expression patterns across samples. There are subsets of nodes, called modules, that are tightly connected to each other. In several published studies, it has been suggested that the first principal components of individual modules, also referred to as "eigengenes", may sufficiently represent the corresponding modules. Results In this article, we refer to principal components and their functions as representative features". We investigate higher-order representative features, which include the principal components other than the first ones and second order terms (quadratics and interactions). Two gradient thresholding methods are adopted for regularized estimation and feature selection. Analysis of six prognosis studies on lymphoma and breast cancer shows that incorporating higher-order representative features improves prediction performance over using eigengenes only. Simulation study further shows that prediction performance can be less satisfactory if the representative feature set is not properly chosen. Conclusions This study introduces multiple ways of defining the representative features and effective thresholding regularized estimation approaches. It provides convincing evidence that the higher-order representative features may have important implications for the prediction of cancer prognosis. PMID:21226928

  6. Brain mechanisms for predictive control by switching internal models: implications for higher-order cognitive functions.

    PubMed

    Imamizu, Hiroshi; Kawato, Mitsuo

    2009-07-01

    Humans can guide their actions toward the realization of their intentions. Flexible, rapid and precise realization of intentions and goals relies on the brain learning to control its actions on external objects and to predict the consequences of this control. Neural mechanisms that mimic the input-output properties of our own body and other objects can be used to support prediction and control, and such mechanisms are called internal models. We first summarize functional neuroimaging, behavioral and computational studies of the brain mechanisms related to acquisition, modular organization, and the predictive switching of internal models mainly for tool use. These mechanisms support predictive control and flexible switching of intentional actions. We then review recent studies demonstrating that internal models are crucial for the execution of not only immediate actions but also higher-order cognitive functions, including optimization of behaviors toward long-term goals, social interactions based on prediction of others' actions and mental states, and language processing. These studies suggest that a concept of internal models can consistently explain the neural mechanisms and computational principles needed for fundamental sensorimotor functions as well as higher-order cognitive functions.

  7. Predictive spelling with a P300-based brain-computer interface: Increasing the rate of communication

    PubMed Central

    Ryan, D.B.; Frye, G.E.; Townsend, G.; Berry, D.R.; Mesa-G, S.; Gates, N.A.; Sellers, E.W.

    2010-01-01

    This study compared a conventional P300 speller brain-computer interface (BCI) to one used in conjunction with a predictive spelling program. Performance differences in accuracy, bit rate, selections per minute, and output characters per minute (OCM) were examined. An 8×9 matrix of letters, numbers, and other keyboard commands was used. Participants (n = 24) were required to correctly complete the same 58 character sentence (i.e., correcting for errors) using the predictive speller (PS) and the non-predictive speller (NS), counterbalanced. The PS produced significantly higher OCMs than the NS. Time to complete the task in the PS condition was 12min 43sec as compared to 20min 20sec in the NS condition. Despite the marked improvement in overall output, accuracy was significantly higher in the NS paradigm. P300 amplitudes were significantly larger in the NS than in the PS paradigm; which is attributed to increased workload and task demands. These results demonstrate the potential efficacy of predictive spelling in the context of BCI. PMID:21278858

  8. ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

  9. ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

  10. Implementation of Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Micromechanics Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Heung Soo; Zhu, Linfa; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear response of composite plates under large strain and high strain rate loading. A recently developed strain dependent micromechanics model is extended to account for the shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of shear deformation effects are investigated to improve the development strain rate dependent micromechanics model. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio is developed. The revised micromechanics model is implemented into higher order laminate theory. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate transverse shear effects during impact.

  11. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    PubMed Central

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed. PMID:25152877

  12. Calm Merino ewes have a higher ovulation rate and more multiple pregnancies than nervous ewes.

    PubMed

    van Lier, E; Hart, K W; Viñoles, C; Paganoni, B; Blache, D

    2017-07-01

    In 1990, two selection lines of Merino sheep were established for low and high behavioural reactivity (calm and nervous temperament) at the University of Western Australia. Breeding records consistently showed that calm ewes weaned 10% to 19% more lambs than the nervous ewes. We hypothesise that calm ewes could have a higher ovulation rate than nervous ewes and/or calm ewes could have a lower rate of embryo mortality than nervous ewes. We tested these hypotheses by comparing the ovulation rate and the rate of embryo mortality between the calm and nervous lines before and after synchronisation and artificial insemination. Merino ewes from the temperament selection lines (calm, n=100; nervous, n=100) were synchronised (early breeding season) for artificial insemination (day 0) (intravaginal sponges containing fluogestone acetate and eCG immediately after sponge withdrawal). On day-17 and 11 ovarian cyclicity and corpora lutea, and on days 30 and 74 pregnancies and embryos/foetuses were determined by ultrasound. Progesterone, insulin and leptin concentrations were determined in blood plasma samples from days 5, 12 and 17. Ovarian cyclicity before and after oestrus synchronisation did not differ between the lines, but ovulation rate did (day-17: calm 1.63; nervous 1.26; P<0.01; day 11: calm 1.83; nervous 1.57; P<0.05). Ovulation rate on day 11 in nervous ewes was higher than on day-17. Loss of embryos by day 30 was high (calm: 71/150; nervous: 68/130); but nervous ewes had a lower proportion (15/47) of multiple pregnancies compared with calm ewes (30/46; P<0.01). Reproductive loss between days 30 and 74 represented 7.3% of the overall loss. Temperament did not affect concentrations of progesterone, but nervous ewes had higher insulin (32.0 pmol/l±1.17 SEM; P=0.013) and lower leptin (1.18 μg/l±0.04 SEM; P=0.002) concentrations than calm ewes (insulin: 27.8 pmol/l±1.17 SEM; leptin: 1.35 μg/l±0.04 SEM). The differences in reproductive outcomes between the calm and

  13. A study of the higher order Lamb resonances on elastic shells: Their prediction and interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werby, M. F.; Broadhead, M. K.; Sadjadi, Firooz A.

    1992-04-01

    We study all the resonances generated on elastic shells for a ka from 0 to 500 for steel and aluminum for a thickness of 5%. We observe the lowest order symmetric and antisymmetric model or Lamb resonances, waterborne and pseudo-Stoneley resonances and the higher order Lamb modes A and S, where i = 1, 2, 3 ... . We plot some of the phase velocities of some of the relevant resonances out to a ka of 500 and indicate simple expressions that predict the onset of each of the resonances. We demonstrate by use of partial wave analysis that the new expressions that predict the onset (critical frequencies) of the higher order Lamb modes are reliable. Further, interesting phenomena occur at the inception of some of the resonances and we discuss some of those cases.

  14. Medical School Factors Associated with Higher Rates of Recruitment into Psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Spollen, John J; Beck Dallaghan, Gary L; Briscoe, Gregory W; Delanoche, Nancy D; Hales, Deborah J

    2017-04-01

    The medical school a student attends appears to be a factor in whether students eventually match into psychiatry. Knowledge of which factors are associated with medical schools with higher recruitment rates into psychiatry may assist in developing strategies to increase recruitment. Psychiatry leaders in medical student education in the 25 highest and lowest recruiting US allopathic schools were surveyed concerning various factors that could be important such as curriculum, educational leadership, and presence of anti-psychiatry stigma. The relationship between the survey results of high recruiting schools versus those of low recruiting schools was evaluated using Mann-Whitney U tests. Factors significantly associated (p < .05) with higher recruiting schools included better reputation of the psychiatry department and residents, perceived higher respect for psychiatry among non-psychiatry faculty, less perception that students dissuaded other students from pursuing psychiatry, and longer clerkship length. Educational culture and climate factors may have a significant impact on psychiatry recruitment rates. Clerkship length was associated with higher recruiting schools, but several previous studies with more complete samples have not shown this.

  15. Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeager, Stephen G.; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan

    2015-12-01

    Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions.

  16. Depression and Anxiety Following Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Are Associated With Higher Six-Month Unemployment Rates.

    PubMed

    Al Yassin, Altaib; Ouyang, Bichun; Temes, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Although survival has dramatically improved following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), the reasons for persistent high rates of unemployment in this population remain unknown. Retrospective review for medical records of patients with aSAH admitted to Rush University Medical Center was undertaken. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to test the association of either depression or anxiety with the 6-month employment status. Among the 29 patients who developed depression or anxiety, 86.2% were unemployed at 6 months following their aSAH. After controlling for confounding factors, anxiety and depression were significantly associated with higher 6-month unemployment rates (odds ratio [OR]=0.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.02-0.3, p=0.0002). Depression and anxiety are common following aSAH and are associated with increased unemployment rates 6 months post aSAH.

  17. A Study of the Predictability of School District Bond Ratings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vedra, Kenneth David

    School district bond ratings, issued on request by Standard and Poor's Corporation or Moody's Investors Service, hold implications for school districts' financial management. Ultimately, the bond rating assigned is a factor affecting the total cost of the bond issuance, related to the principal and interest payments over the life of the debt. A…

  18. A Study of the Predictability of School District Bond Ratings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vedra, Kenneth David

    School district bond ratings, issued on request by Standard and Poor's Corporation or Moody's Investors Service, hold implications for school districts' financial management. Ultimately, the bond rating assigned is a factor affecting the total cost of the bond issuance, related to the principal and interest payments over the life of the debt. A…

  19. Predicting Supervisor, Peer, and Self Ratings of Intern Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kegel-Flom, Penelope

    1975-01-01

    Relationships between the ratings of interns by their supervisors, their peers, and the interns themselves on four dimensions are compared and analyzed in relationship to earlier measures of aptitude, achievement, and personality. Findings reported show supervisor ratings to be highest and admission variables to be unrelated to intern performance.…

  20. Background Factors Predicting Teacher Ratings of Children's School Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerr, M. Kaye

    This study examined background factors in children that influence teachers' ratings on the Classroom Adjustment Rating Scale (CARS). Sixteen classrooms in five schools were selected to include a range of socio-economic and cultural groupings from Inner London, England Primary Schools. Teachers used the CARS and an additional short scale of overall…

  1. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models

    PubMed Central

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-01-01

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m−2 year−1. These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world’s biodiversity. PMID:26255956

  2. Lower Provider Volume is Associated with Higher Failure Rates for Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography

    PubMed Central

    Coté, Gregory A.; Imler, Timothy D.; Xu, Huiping; Teal, Evgenia; French, Dustin D.; Imperiale, Thomas F.; Rosenman, Marc B.; Wilson, Jeffery; Hui, Siu L.; Sherman, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    Background Among physicians who perform endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), the relationship between procedure volume and outcome is unknown. Objective Quantify the ERCP volume-outcome relationship by measuring provider-specific failure rates, hospitalization rates and other quality measures. Research Design Retrospective Cohort Subjects 16,968 ERCPs performed by 130 physicians between 2001-2011, identified in the Indiana Network for Patient Care (INPC) Measures Physicians were classified by their average annual INPC volume and stratified into low (<25/year) and high (≥25/year). Outcomes included failed procedures, defined as repeat ERCP, percutaneous transhepatic cholangiography or surgical exploration of the bile duct ≤ 7 days after the index procedure, hospitalization rates, and 30-day mortality. Results Among 15,514 index ERCPs, there were 1,163 (7.5%) failures; the failure rate was higher among low (9.5%) compared to high volume (5.7%) providers (p<0.001). A second ERCP within 7 days (a subgroup of failure rate) occurred more frequently when the original ERCP was performed by a low (4.1%) versus a high volume physician (2.3%, p=0.013). Patients were more frequently hospitalized within 24 hours when the ERCP was performed by a low (28.3%) vs. high volume physician (14.8%, p=0.002). Mortality within 30 days was similar (low – 1.9%, high – 1.9%). Among low volume physicians and after adjusting, the odds of having a failed procedure decreased 3.3% (95% CI 1.6-5.0%, p<0.001) with each additional ERCP performed per year. Conclusions Lower provider volume is associated with higher failure rate for ERCP, and greater need for post-procedure hospitalization. PMID:24226304

  3. Research on Fault Rate Prediction Method of T/R Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Xiaodong; Yang, Jiangping; Bi, Zengjun; Zhang, Yu

    2017-07-01

    T/R component is an important part of the large phased array radar antenna array, because of its large numbers, high fault rate, it has important significance for fault prediction. Aiming at the problems of traditional grey model GM(1,1) in practical operation, the discrete grey model is established based on the original model in this paper, and the optimization factor is introduced to optimize the background value, and the linear form of the prediction model is added, the improved discrete grey model of linear regression is proposed, finally, an example is simulated and compared with other models. The results show that the method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy and the solution is simple and the application scope is more extensive.

  4. Acoustic emission strand burning technique for motor burning rate prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christensen, W. N.

    1978-01-01

    An acoustic emission (AE) method is being used to measure the burning rate of solid propellant strands. This method has a precision of 0.5% and excellent burning rate correlation with both subscale and large rocket motors. The AE procedure burns the sample under water and measures the burning rate from the acoustic output. The acoustic signal provides a continuous readout during testing, which allows complete data analysis rather than the start-stop clockwires used by the conventional method. The AE method helps eliminate such problems as inhibiting the sample, pressure increase and temperature rise, during testing.

  5. Artificial Neural Network for Monthly Rainfall Rate Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purnomo, H. D.; Hartomo, K. D.; Prasetyo, S. Y. J.

    2017-03-01

    Rainfall rate forecasting plays an important role in various human activities. Rainfall forecasting is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of natural phenomena. In this paper, two neural network models are proposed for monthly rainfall rate forecasting. The performance of the proposed model is assesses based on monthly rainfall rate in Ampel, Boyolali, from 2001-2013. The experiment results show that the accuracy of the first model is much better than the accuracy of the second model. Its average accuracy is just above 98%, while the accuracy of the second model is approximately 75%. In additional, both models tend to perform better when the fluctuation of rainfall is low.

  6. Rates of concussion are lower in National Football League games played at higher altitudes.

    PubMed

    Myer, Gregory D; Smith, David; Barber Foss, Kim D; Dicesare, Christopher A; Kiefer, Adam W; Kushner, Adam M; Thomas, Staci M; Sucharew, Heidi; Khoury, Jane C

    2014-03-01

    Retrospective epidemiologic investigation. To investigate the relationship between altitude and concussion rate in the National Football League (NFL). Because of the physiologic responses that occur during acclimatization to altitude, it was hypothesized that games played on fields at a higher altitude would have reduced concussion rates compared to games played on fields at a lower altitude. Recent research indicates that the elevation above sea level at which football games are played may be associated with the likelihood of a concussion in high school football athletes. Data on incident concussions and athlete exposures for the first 16 weeks of the NFL 2012 and 2013 regular seasons were obtained from publicly available web-based sources and used to calculate competition concussion rates for each NFL stadium. Concussion rates were analyzed in relation to game elevation. During the first 16 weeks of the 2012 and 2013 NFL regular seasons, 300 concussions, involving 284 players, were reported (64.3 primary cases per 10,000 game exposures). The odds of a concussion were 30% lower when playing at a higher elevation (equal to or greater than 644 ft [196.3 m] above sea level) compared to a lower elevation (odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.94). A multivariable generalized linear model controlling for season, week, and clustering of team at home and away confirmed these results, showing that the odds of at least 1 concussion were reduced by 32% in games played at higher elevation. The results of this epidemiological investigation indicate that increased altitude was associated with a reduction in the odds of a sport-related concussion in NFL athletes. The reported relationship of concussion incidence and field elevation should be further investigated, and, if verified, further work will be needed to understand why that relationship exists. Prognosis, level 2c.

  7. Prediction of Polyethylene Wear Rates from Gait Biomechanics and Implant Positioning in Total Hip Replacement.

    PubMed

    Ardestani, Marzieh M; Amenábar Edwards, Pedro P; Wimmer, Markus A

    2017-08-01

    wear differences are caused by a combination of wear factors rather than single variables. The linear discriminant analysis model correctly predicted the level of wear in 80% of patients with low wear, 87% of subjects with moderate wear, and 73% of subjects with high wear based on a combination of gait and positioning variables. For every wear level, multiple linear and nonlinear regression showed strong associations between gait biomechanics, implant positioning, and wear rate, with the nonlinear model having a higher prediction accuracy. Flexion-extension ROM and hip moments in the sagittal and transverse planes explained 42% to 60% of wear rate while positioning factors, (such as cup medialization and cup inclination angle) explained only 10% to 33%. Patient-specific wear rates are associated with patients' gait patterns. Gait pattern has a greater influence on wear than component positioning for traditional metal-on-polyethylene bearings. The consideration of individual gait bears potential to further reduce implant wear in THR. In the future, a predictive wear model may identify individual, modifiable wear factors for modern materials.

  8. Protein Thermodynamics Can Be Predicted Directly from Biological Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A.; Bowman, John P.; Ratkowsky, David A.; Olley, June; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122°C). The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model. PMID:24787650

  9. Protein thermodynamics can be predicted directly from biological growth rates.

    PubMed

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A; Bowman, John P; Ratkowsky, David A; Olley, June; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122 °C). The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model.

  10. The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2016-01-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

  11. The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2016-01-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

  12. Cross-validation of recent and longstanding resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence predicted RMR accuracy at the individual lev...

  13. Higher Crash and Near-Crash Rates in Teenaged Drivers With Lower Cortisol Response

    PubMed Central

    Ouimet, Marie Claude; Brown, Thomas G.; Guo, Feng; Klauer, Sheila G.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Fang, Youjia; Lee, Suzanne E.; Gianoulakis, Christina; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Road traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of injury and death among teenagers worldwide. Better understanding of the individual pathways to driving risk may lead to better-targeted intervention in this vulnerable group. OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between cortisol, a neurobiological marker of stress regulation linked to risky behavior, and driving risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study was designed to continuously monitor the driving behavior of teenagers by instrumenting vehicles with kinematic sensors, cameras, and a global positioning system. During 2006–2008, a community sample of 42 newly licensed 16-year-old volunteer participants in the United States was recruited and driving behavior monitored. It was hypothesized in teenagers that higher cortisol response to stress is associated with (1) lower crash and near-crash (CNC) rates during their first 18 months of licensure and (2) faster reduction in CNC rates over time. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants’ cortisol response during a stress-inducing task was assessed at baseline, followed by measurement of their involvement in CNCs and driving exposure during their first 18 months of licensure. Mixed-effect Poisson longitudinal regression models were used to examine the association between baseline cortisol response and CNC rates during the follow-up period. RESULTS Participants with a higher baseline cortisol response had lower CNC rates during the follow-up period (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.93; 95%CI, 0.88–0.98) and faster decrease in CNC rates over time (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.98; 95%, CI, 0.96–0.99). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cortisol is a neurobiological marker associated with teenaged-driving risk. As in other problem-behavior fields, identification of an objective marker of teenaged-driving risk promises the development of more personalized intervention approaches. PMID:24710522

  14. Spontaneous eye blink rate predicts learning from negative, but not positive, outcomes.

    PubMed

    Slagter, Heleen A; Georgopoulou, Katerina; Frank, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    A large body of research shows that striatal dopamine critically affects the extent to which we learn from the positive and negative outcomes of our decisions. In this study, we examined the relationship between reinforcement learning and spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR), a cheap, non-invasive, and easy to obtain marker of striatal dopaminergic activity. Based on previous findings from pharmacological and patient studies, our main prediction was that in healthy individuals, low blink rates (and concomitant lower striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with better learning from negative choices, while high blink rates (and concomitant higher striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with learning from positive choices. Behavioral analyses showed that in healthy individuals, lower blink rates were indeed associated with greater learning from negative outcomes, indicating that lower dopamine levels per se may enhance avoidance learning. Yet, higher EBR was not associated with better learning from positive outcomes. These observations support the notion that sEBR reflects tonic dopamine levels, and suggest that sEBR may specifically relate to dopamine D2 receptor function, given the importance of the dopaminergic D2 pathway in avoidance learning. More generally, these findings highlight the usefulness of sEBR as a non-invasive and cheap method for assessing the relationship between striatal dopaminergic function and behavior.

  15. Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

    PubMed Central

    Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

    2015-01-01

    Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by

  16. Higher mortality rate in patients hospitalised for acute pulmonary embolism during weekends.

    PubMed

    Gallerani, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Ageno, Walter; Dentali, Francesco; Manfredini, Roberto

    2011-07-01

    The management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is often challenging and requires specific medical expertise, diagnostic techniques and therapeutic options that may not be available in all hospitals throughout the entire week. The aim of our study was to evaluate whether or not an association exists between weekday or weekend admission and mortality for patients hospitalised with acute PE. Using routinely collected hospital administrative data, we examined patients discharged with a diagnosis of PE from the hospitals of the Emilia- Romagna Region in Italy (January 1999-December 2009). The risk of in-hospital death was calculated for admissions at the weekend and compared to weekday admissions. Of a total of 26,560 PEs, 6,788 (25.6%) had been admitted during weekends. PE admissions were most frequent on Mondays (15.8%) and less frequent on Saturdays and Sundays/holidays (12.8%) (p<0.001). Weekend admissions were associated with significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality than weekday admissions (28% vs. 24.8%) (p<0.001). The risk of weekend admission and in-hospital mortality was higher after adjusting for sender, hospital characteristics, and the Charlson co-morbidity index. In conclusion, hospitalisation for PE on weekends seems to be associated with a significantly higher mortality rate than on weekdays. Further research is needed to investigate the reasons for this observed difference in mortality in order to try and implement future strategies that ensure an adequate level of care throughout the entire week.

  17. Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

    1997-01-01

    Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

  18. Speed versus endurance tradeoff in plants: Leaves with higher photosynthetic rates show stronger seasonal declines.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Sack, Lawren; Cao, Kun-Fang; Wei, Xue-Mei; Li, Nan

    2017-02-10

    We tested for a tradeoff across species between plant maximum photosynthetic rate and the ability to maintain photosynthesis under adverse conditions in the unfavorable season. Such a trade-off would be consistent with the observed trade-off between maximum speed and endurance in athletes and some animals that has been explained by cost-benefit theory. This trend would have importance for the general understanding of leaf design, and would simplify models of annual leaf carbon relations. We tested for such a trade-off using a database analysis across vascular plants and using an experimental approach for 29 cycad species, representing an ancient plant lineage with diversified evergreen leaves. In both tests, a higher photosynthetic rate per mass or per area in the favorable season was associated with a stronger absolute or percent decline in the unfavorable season. We resolved a possible mechanism based on biomechanics and nitrogen allocation; cycads with high leaf toughness (leaf mass per area) and higher investment in leaf construction than in physiological function (C/N ratio) tended to have lower warm season photosynthesis but less depression in the cool season. We propose that this trade-off, consistent with cost-benefit theory, represents a significant physio-phenological constraint on the diversity and seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic rate.

  19. Speed versus endurance tradeoff in plants: Leaves with higher photosynthetic rates show stronger seasonal declines

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Sack, Lawren; Cao, Kun-Fang; Wei, Xue-Mei; Li, Nan

    2017-01-01

    We tested for a tradeoff across species between plant maximum photosynthetic rate and the ability to maintain photosynthesis under adverse conditions in the unfavorable season. Such a trade-off would be consistent with the observed trade-off between maximum speed and endurance in athletes and some animals that has been explained by cost-benefit theory. This trend would have importance for the general understanding of leaf design, and would simplify models of annual leaf carbon relations. We tested for such a trade-off using a database analysis across vascular plants and using an experimental approach for 29 cycad species, representing an ancient plant lineage with diversified evergreen leaves. In both tests, a higher photosynthetic rate per mass or per area in the favorable season was associated with a stronger absolute or percent decline in the unfavorable season. We resolved a possible mechanism based on biomechanics and nitrogen allocation; cycads with high leaf toughness (leaf mass per area) and higher investment in leaf construction than in physiological function (C/N ratio) tended to have lower warm season photosynthesis but less depression in the cool season. We propose that this trade-off, consistent with cost-benefit theory, represents a significant physio-phenological constraint on the diversity and seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic rate. PMID:28186201

  20. Splenectomy is associated with higher infection and pneumonia rates among trauma laparotomy patients.

    PubMed

    Fair, Kelly A; Connelly, Christopher R; Hart, Kyle D; Schreiber, Martin A; Watters, Jennifer M

    2017-05-01

    Splenectomy increases lifetime risk of thromboembolism (VTE) and is associated with long-term infectious complications, primarily, overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI). Our objective was to evaluate risk of VTE and infection at index hospitalization post-splenectomy. Retrospective review of all patients who received a laparotomy in the NTDB. Propensity score matching for splenectomy was performed, based on ISS, abdominal abbreviated injury score >3, GCS, sex and mechanism. Major complications, VTE, and infection rates were compared. Multiple logistic regression models were utilized to evaluate splenectomy-associated complications. 93,221 laparotomies were performed and 17% underwent splenectomy. Multiple logistic regression models did not demonstrate an association between splenectomy and major complications (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.03, p = 0.25) or VTE (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.96-1.14, p = 0.33). Splenectomy was independently associated with infection (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.14, p = 0.045). Subgroup analysis of patients with infection demonstrated that splenectomy was most strongly associated with pneumonia (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.26-1.57, p < 0.001). Splenectomy is not associated with higher overall complication or VTE rates during index hospitalization. However, splenectomy is associated with a higher rate of pneumonia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Fertilization rate analysis as a predictive variable for an in-vitro fertilization program success].

    PubMed

    Kably Ambe, Alberto; Ruiz Anguas, Julián; Garzón Núñez, José Antonio; Anta Jaen, Everardo; Carballo Mondragón, Esperanza

    2003-01-01

    Determining if fertilization rates can be used as a predictive factor for pregnancy induction in ETIVF-ICSI programs. Retrospective, observational and descriptive. Six hundred and seventy nine cycles of the in vitro fertilization program, using long protocol hypophyseal suppression, stop, or antagonsits, were included. Ovarian stimulation was carried out with menotropines or recombinant FSH. Those patients whose cycle was stopped due to the lack of follicular development were excluded. Variables under study were: age, fertilization percentage, pregnancy rate, pre-ovulatory estradiol levels, number and quality of captured oocytes, transferred embrios and endometrial thickness on the day of transference and the presence of pregnancy. The Pearson P Test with a 95% confidence interval and the Student T Test used to establish differences with a 95% confidence interval statistical analyses were applied. Six hundred and seventy nine cycles were studied, 487 of which used the conventional fertilization method, and 192 used the ICSI method. Mean age among patients was 34 +/- 1.1 years old, with pre-ovulatory estradiol levels of 4,023 +/- 1,134 pg/mL, the average quantity of captured oocytes was 11.7 +/- 3.2 with a capture rate of 69.6%. Mean fertilization rates averaged 54% with a 20.7% pregnancy rates using the transference method. After analyzing the fertilization rate in each group, a statistically significant linear correlation was observed (P = 0.547, CI 95%) with the pregnancy rate. After assigning patients to two different groups: conventional IVF and ICSI, a higher positive correlation was observed (P = 0.827, CI 99%) in the first group. No significant differences were observed in the remaining parameters between both groups, excepting oocyte maturity, where greater prophase I and metaphase II percentages were observed in the ICSI group. When 50% fertilization was taken as the cutting point, a 78.19% negative predictive value was determined, with a 25% positive

  2. Attempted suicide in Podgorica, Montenegro: higher rates in females and unemployed males.

    PubMed

    Stevovic, Lidija Injac; Vodopic, Sanja

    2017-01-01

    A change in suicide attempts is associated with comprehensive changes in mental and physical health and social environment. Attempted suicide and suicide are one of the biggest problems nowadays worldwide, not only in the field of mental health but also in the field of public health. The aim of the research was to determine the number of attempted suicides as well as the influence of clinical and demographic variables on the attempted suicide rate. The data on the attempted suicide were analysed in the period 2012-2016 based on the data from the Emergency Ward of the Clinical Centre of Montenegro in Podgorica. The rate of attempted suicides as well as the unemployment rate was calculated. The statistical analysis included descriptive statistics of the raw data and relative numbers, Chi-squared test, Fisher's test and Spearman coefficient. The average age of males who attempted suicide was 38.35 ± 14.11, min 15 and max 88 years of age, and the age of women was 38.97 ± 16.81, min 16 and max 93 years of age. Women attempted suicide more frequently (p < 0.05). Female/male ratio during the investigation period slightly declined (1.93 in 2012 vs. 1.29 in 2016). The attempted suicide rates ranged from 103 per 100,000 residents in 2016 to 142 per 100,000 residents in 2015. Crude attempt rate was the highest in women in 2012 (102.42 per 100,000 residents) and for men in 2014 and 2015 (84.48 vs. 83.06 per 100,000 residents). Poisoning with psychotropic drugs was the dominant manner of attempt (93.2%), while the largest number of attempts was in the late spring and summer (May, June and July). Attempted suicide rate in man was associated with higher unemployment rate. Although women make the majority of attempted suicide cases, there has been a decline in the value of the rate for women and a rise for men. The attempted suicide rates in Podgorica belong to lower rates compared to the WHO European multicentre study on parasuicide. Poisoning with psychotropic drugs

  3. Lower than predicted resting metabolic rate is associated with severely impaired cardiorespiratory fitness in obese individuals.

    PubMed

    Miller, Wendy M; Spring, Thomas J; Zalesin, Kerstyn C; Kaeding, Kaylee R; Nori Janosz, Katherine E; McCullough, Peter A; Franklin, Barry A

    2012-03-01

    Obese individuals have reduced cardiorespiratory fitness as compared with leaner counterparts. Regular exercise maintains or increases fitness and lean body mass. Lean body mass, in turn, has a direct impact on resting metabolic rate (RMR). Given these relationships, we sought to evaluate the association between RMR and cardiorespiratory fitness in obese individuals. We evaluated 64 obese individuals (78% female) with direct assessment of RMR and cardiorespiratory fitness via breath-by-breath measurement of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production at rest and during exercise. The mean age and BMI were 47.4 ± 12.2 years and 47.2 ± 9.2 kg/m(2), respectively. The majority of subjects, 69%, had a measured RMR above that predicted by the Harris-Benedict equation. Compared with the higher RMR group, those with a lower than predicted RMR had increased BMI, with values of 52.9 vs. 44.7 kg/m(2), P = 0.001, respectively. Analysis of those demonstrating significant effort during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (peak respiratory exchange ratio ≥1.10) revealed a significantly higher peak oxygen uptake (VO(2) peak) in the higher RMR group (17.3 ± 3.5 ml/min/kg) compared with the lower RMR group (13.6 ± 1.9 ml/min/kg), P = 0.003. In summary, a lower than predicted RMR was associated with a severely reduced VO(2) peak and a higher BMI in this cohort. These data suggest that morbid obesity may be a vicious cycle of increasing BMI, reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, muscle deconditioning, and lower RMR. Collectively, these responses may, over time, exacerbate the imbalance between energy intake and expenditure, resulting in progressive increases in body weight and fat stores.

  4. Are single mothers' higher smoking rates mediated by dysfunctional coping styles?

    PubMed

    Sperlich, Stefanie; Maina, Mercy Nyambura

    2014-10-08

    Smoking prevalence has been shown to be considerably higher among single mothers as compared to their married or cohabiting counterparts. This study examines whether this could be attributed to single mothers' different capability in dealing with stress. Based on cross-sectional data of 3129 German mothers, the study explores the associations between single motherhood, coping styles and moderate and heavy smoking pattern using a regression-based 'parallel multiple mediator model'. Single mothers showed higher rates of negative coping styles than partnered mothers, holding for 'self-blame/rumination' (p < 0.001), 'blaming others' (p = 0.048) and in particular for 'substance consumption' (p < 0.001). With respect to positive coping styles the findings were heterogeneous: while partnered mothers scored higher on 'active influence' (p < 0.001), single mothers showed higher values of 'positive self-verbalisation' (p < 0.001). Evidence for a mediating effect of coping styles on the relationship between single motherhood and moderate as well as heavy smoking was only found for 'substance consumption'. Moreover, single motherhood may moderate the effect of 'self-blame/rumination' on heavy smoking (p = 0.025). Against expectations, higher levels of 'active influence' were not associated with lower but with significant higher odds of moderate smoking (OR = 1.19). Single mothers compared to partnered mothers showed a different ability to cope with stress. However, only the coping strategy 'substance consumption' mediates the relationship between single motherhood and smoking. Exclusively in single mothers, 'self-blame/rumination' was associated with heavy smoking, indicating that they might utilize smoking as a way to come to terms with negative ruminative thoughts.

  5. Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Roop N.; Jones, Jim J.; Rochelle, William C.

    1992-01-01

    The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

  6. Higher rates of neuropsychiatric adverse events leading to dolutegravir discontinuation in women and older patients.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, C; Welz, T; Sabranski, M; Kolb, M; Wolf, E; Stellbrink, H-J; Wyen, C

    2017-01-01

    Dolutegravir (DTG), a second-generation integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), is now among the most frequently used antiretroviral agents. However, recent reports have raised concerns about potential neurotoxicity. We performed a retrospective analysis of a cohort of HIV-infected patients who had initiated an INSTI in two large German out-patient clinics between 2007 and 2016. We compared discontinuation rates because of adverse events (AEs) within 2 years of starting treatment with dolutegravir, raltegravir or elvitegravir/cobicistat. We also evaluated factors associated with dolutegravir discontinuation. A total of 1950 INSTI-based therapies were initiated in 1704 patients eligible for analysis within the observation period. The estimated rates of any AE and of neuropsychiatric AEs leading to discontinuation within 12 months were 7.6% and 5.6%, respectively, for dolutegravir (n = 985), 7.6% and 0.7%, respectively, for elvitegravir (n = 287), and 3.3% and 1.9%, respectively, for raltegravir (n = 678). Neuropsychiatric AEs leading to dolutegravir discontinuation were observed more frequently in women [hazard ratio (HR) 2.64; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-5.65; P = 0.012], in patients older than 60 years (HR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.42-5.77; P = 0.003) and in human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B*5701-negative patients who initiated abacavir at the same time (HR: 2.42; 95% CI: 1.38-4.24; P = 0.002). In this large cohort, the rate of discontinuation of dolutegravir because of neuropsychiatric adverse events was significantly higher than for other INSTIs, at almost 6% within 12 months. Despite the limitations of this retrospective study, the almost three-fold higher discontinuation rates observed amongst women and older patients underscore the need for further investigation, especially in patient populations usually underrepresented in clinical trials. © 2016 British HIV Association.

  7. Rabies Vaccination: Higher Failure Rates in Imported Dogs than in those Vaccinated in Italy.

    PubMed

    Rota Nodari, E; Alonso, S; Mancin, M; De Nardi, M; Hudson-Cooke, S; Veggiato, C; Cattoli, G; De Benedictis, P

    2017-03-01

    The current European Union (EU) legislation decrees that pets entering the EU from a rabies-infected third country have to obtain a satisfactory virus-neutralizing antibody level, while those moving within the EU require only rabies vaccination as the risk of moving a rabid pet within the EU is considered negligible. A number of factors driving individual variations in dog vaccine response have been previously reported, including a high rate of vaccine failure in puppies, especially those subject to commercial transport. A total of 21 001 observations collected from dogs (2006-2012) vaccinated in compliance with the current EU regulations were statistically analysed to assess the effect of different risk factors related to rabies vaccine efficacy. Within this framework, we were able to compare the vaccination failure rate in a group of dogs entering the Italian border from EU and non-EU countries to those vaccinated in Italy prior to international travel. Our analysis identified that cross-breeds and two breed categories showed high vaccine success rates, while Beagles and Boxers were the least likely to show a successful response to vaccination (88.82% and 90.32%, respectively). Our analysis revealed diverse performances among the commercially available vaccines, in terms of serological peak windows, and marked differences according to geographical area. Of note, we found a higher vaccine failure rate in imported dogs (13.15%) than in those vaccinated in Italy (5.89%). Our findings suggest that the choice of vaccine may influence the likelihood of an animal achieving a protective serological level and that time from vaccination to sampling should be considered when interpreting serological results. A higher vaccine failure in imported compared to Italian dogs highlights the key role that border controls still have in assessing the full compliance of pet movements with EU legislation to minimize the risk of rabies being reintroduced into a disease-free area.

  8. Predicting the College Attendance Rate of Graduating High School Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Donald R.

    1990-01-01

    An important element of school counseling is providing assessments on the collective future needs and activities of a graduating school class. The College Attendance Rate (CAR) is defined here as the proportion of seniors graduating from a given high school, during a given year, that will enroll full-time at an academic college sometime during the…

  9. Prediction of critical grout parameters: critical flow rate

    SciTech Connect

    Tallent, O.K.; McDaniel, E.W.; Godsey, T.T.; Dodson, K.E.

    1986-01-01

    Waste disposal is rapidly becoming one of the most important technological endeavors of our time and fixation of waste in cement-based materials is an important part of the endeavor. Investigations of given wastes are usually individually conducted and reported. In this study, data obtained from investigation of critical flow rates for three distinctly different wastes are correlated with apparent viscosity data via a single empirical equation. Critical flow rate, which is an important variable in waste grout work, is defined as the flow rate at which a grout must be pumped through a reference pipe to obtain turbulent flow. It is important that the grout flow be turbulent since laminar flow allows caking on pipe walls and causes eventual plugging. The three wastes used in this study can be characterized as containing: (1) high nitrate, carbonate, and sulfate; (2) high phosphate; and (3) high fluoride, ammonium, and suspended solids waste. The measurements of apparent viscosity (grouts are non-Newtonian fluids) and other measurements to obtain data to calculate the critical flow rates were made using a Fann-Direct Reading Viscometer, Model 35A.

  10. Performance-optimized hierarchical models predict neural responses in higher visual cortex

    PubMed Central

    Yamins, Daniel L. K.; Hong, Ha; Cadieu, Charles F.; Solomon, Ethan A.; Seibert, Darren; DiCarlo, James J.

    2014-01-01

    The ventral visual stream underlies key human visual object recognition abilities. However, neural encoding in the higher areas of the ventral stream remains poorly understood. Here, we describe a modeling approach that yields a quantitatively accurate model of inferior temporal (IT) cortex, the highest ventral cortical area. Using high-throughput computational techniques, we discovered that, within a class of biologically plausible hierarchical neural network models, there is a strong correlation between a model’s categorization performance and its ability to predict individual IT neural unit response data. To pursue this idea, we then identified a high-performing neural network that matches human performance on a range of recognition tasks. Critically, even though we did not constrain this model to match neural data, its top output layer turns out to be highly predictive of IT spiking responses to complex naturalistic images at both the single site and population levels. Moreover, the model’s intermediate layers are highly predictive of neural responses in the V4 cortex, a midlevel visual area that provides the dominant cortical input to IT. These results show that performance optimization—applied in a biologically appropriate model class—can be used to build quantitative predictive models of neural processing. PMID:24812127

  11. Cross-Validation of Age-Predicted Maximal Heart Rate Equations Among Female Collegiate Athletes.

    PubMed

    Esco, Michael R; Chamberlain, Nik; Flatt, Andrew A; Snarr, Ronald L; Bishop, Phillip A; Williford, Henry N

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of 3 general and 2 female-specific age-predicted maximal heart rate (HRmax) prediction equations in female collegiate athletes. Thirty female collegiate athletes (age = 21.5 ± 1.9 years, height = 164.7 ± 6.6 cm, weight = 61.3 ± 8.2 kg) participated. HRmax was determined with a maximal graded exercise test and predicted with 3 general equations (Fox et al., Astrand, and Tanaka et al.) and 2 female-specific equations (Fairbarn et al. and Gulati et al.). There was no significant difference between observed HRmax (185.9 ± 5.0 b·min) and the Fairbarn (187.5 ± 1.2 b·min) and Gulati (187.1 ± 1.7 b·min) equations (p = 0.11 and 0.23, respectively). The Fox (198.5 ± 1.9 b·min), Astrand (198.1 ± 1.6 b·min), and Tanaka (193.0 ± 1.4 b·min) equations provided significantly higher estimates compared with observed HRmax (p < 0.001 for each). The standard error of the estimate was similar for all the prediction equations (between 5.0 and 5.4 b·min), but the total error was smallest for Fairbarn and Gulati (5.3 b·min for each) and largest for Fox and Astrand (13.9 and 13.3 b·min, respectively). The 95% limits of agreement of the mean error were similar for all of the prediction equations, with values varying between 9.9 and 10.5 b·min. Because of the wide limits of agreement displayed by each equation, the use of age-predicted methods for estimating HRmax in collegiate female athletes should be performed only with caution.

  12. Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

    PubMed

    Tran, Lucy A P

    2016-04-01

    Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

  13. Does limited access to NICU services account for higher neonatal mortality rates among blacks?

    PubMed

    Langkamp, D L; Foye, H R; Roghmann, K J

    1990-07-01

    During a 2-year period in the Finger Lakes region of upstate New York, black infants were admitted to the NICU 2.6 times as often as white infants. The relative risk of NICU admission among black low birthweight infants was 9.2 times that of normal birthweight black infants. The relative risk of NICU admission among white low birthweight infants was 16.4 times that of normal birthweight white infants. Thus, higher rates of low birthweight among blacks did not account for the increased utilization of NICU services by blacks. Within the NICU, 30% of the deaths among black normal birthweight infants could be attributed to complications of asphyxia, persistent fetal circulation, or meconium aspiration. Only 14.3% of the deaths among white normal birthweight infants were attributed to these cause. Higher black neonatal mortality rates did not appear to be due to limited access to NICU services, but more normal birthweight black babies may have died of potentially preventable causes.

  14. Augmenting data rate performance for higher order modulation in triangular index profile multicore fiber interconnect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Jitendra K.; Priye, Vishnu; Rahman, B. M. A.

    2016-07-01

    A triangular profile multicore fiber (MCF) optical interconnect (OI) is investigated to augment performance that typically degrades at high data rates for higher order modulation in a short reach transmission system. Firstly, probability density functions (PDFs) variation with inter-core crosstalk is calculated for 8-core MCF OI with different index profile in the core and it was observed that the triangular profile MCF OI is the most crosstalk tolerant. Next, symbol error probability (SEP) for higher order quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) modulated signal due to inter-core crosstalk is analytically obtained and their dependence on typical characteristic parameters are examined. Further, numerical simulations are carried out to compare the error performance of QPSK for step index and triangular index MCF OI by generating eye diagram at 40 Gbps per channel. Finally, it is shown that MCF OI with triangular index profile supporting QPSK has double spectral efficiency with tolerable trade off in SEP as compared with those of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) at high data rates which is scalable up to 5 Tbps.

  15. MERGERS IN {Lambda}CDM: UNCERTAINTIES IN THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF THE MERGER RATE

    SciTech Connect

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Bundy, Kevin; Wetzel, Andrew; Ma, Chung-Pei; Croton, Darren; Khochfar, Sadegh; Hernquist, Lars; Genel, Shy; Van den Bosch, Frank; Somerville, Rachel S.; Keres, Dusan; Stewart, Kyle; Younger, Joshua D.

    2010-12-01

    Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of {approx}2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo 'destruction' rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of {approx}2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with 'orphan' galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely over-estimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semi-analytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors ({approx}5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of {approx}1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite 'over-quenching' in most current SAMs-whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas-could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this 'over-quenching') tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of {approx}2 uncertainties stemming from the

  16. Level of evidence and conflict of interest disclosure associated with higher citation rates in orthopedics.

    PubMed

    Okike, Kanu; Kocher, Mininder S; Torpey, Jennifer L; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; Mehlman, Charles T; Bhandari, Mohit

    2011-03-01

    To identify the scientific and nonscientific factors associated with rates of citation in the orthopedic literature. All original clinical articles published in three general orthopedics journals between July 2002 and December 2003 were reviewed. Information was collected on variables plausibly related to rates of citation, including scientific and nonscientific factors. The number of citations at 5 years was ascertained and linear regression was used to identify factors associated with rates of citation. In the multivariate analysis, factors associated with increased rates of citation at 5 years were high level of evidence (22.2 citations for level I or II vs. 10.8 citations for level III or IV; P=0.0001), large sample size (18.8 citations for sample size of 100 or more vs. 7.9 citations for sample size of 25 or fewer; P<0.0001), multiple institutions (15.2 citations for two or more centers vs. 11.1 citations for single center; P=0.023), self-reported conflict of interest disclosure involving a nonprofit organization (17.4 citations for nonprofit disclosure vs. 10.6 citations for no disclosure; P=0.027), and self-reported conflict of interest disclosure involving a for-profit company (26.1 citations for for-profit disclosure vs. 10.6 citations for no disclosure; P=0.011). High level of evidence, large sample size, representation from multiple institutions, and conflict of interest disclosure are associated with higher rates of citation in orthopedics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Slat Noise Predictions Using Higher-Order Finite-Difference Methods on Overset Grids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Housman, Jeffrey A.; Kiris, Cetin

    2016-01-01

    Computational aeroacoustic simulations using the structured overset grid approach and higher-order finite difference methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are presented for slat noise predictions. The simulations are part of a collaborative study comparing noise generation mechanisms between a conventional slat and a Krueger leading edge flap. Simulation results are compared with experimental data acquired during an aeroacoustic test in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. Details of the structured overset grid, numerical discretization, and turbulence model are provided.

  18. Early treatment initiation in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes produces an earlier and higher rate of transfusion independence.

    PubMed

    Cogle, Christopher R; Reddy, Sheila R; Chang, Eunice; Papoyan, Elya; Broder, Michael S; McGuire, Michael; Binder, Gary

    2017-09-01

    Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are characterized by ineffective hematopoiesis resulting in refractory cytopenias. Red blood cell (RBC) transfusions can improve anemia; however, prolonged transfusion dependence (TD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for MDS can reduce transfusion requirements, although the optimum timing of DMT initiation is unclear. This retrospective study analyzed linked SEER registry and Medicare claims (2006-2012) to estimate the impact of DMT-initiation (azacitidine, decitabine, or lenalidomide) timing (≤ 3 vs.>3months from start of TD) on the likelihood of achieving transfusion independence (TI) among 508 TD patients with MDS. Mean time to DMT was 28days for early initiators (n=351) and 187days for late initiators (n=157). Fewer early initiators used erythropoiesis-stimulating agents before achieving TI versus late initiators (61.5% vs. 73.9%; P=0.007). In multivariate analyses, early DMT initiation predicted TI achievement (HR, 1.69; P<0.001); patients who met minimum active therapy-exposure requirements were more likely to achieve TI (HR, 2.12; P<0.001). Higher rates of TI were associated with reduced time between onset of TD and DMT initiation. Similarly, patients meeting the minimum treatment-exposure threshold had higher TI rates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Maternal use of cigarettes, pipes, and smokeless tobacco associated with higher infant mortality rates in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Singh, Pramil N; Eng, Carlin; Yel, Daravuth; Kheam, They; Job, Jayakaran S; Kanal, Koum

    2013-09-01

    In the Western Pacific Region, rural women use loose tobacco in betel quid chewing and pipe smoking. We examined the relation between maternal use of tobacco and infant mortality (IM) in a national sample of 24 296 birth outcomes in adult women (n = 6013) in Cambodia. We found that (1) age-adjusted odds of IM were higher for maternal use of any tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27-2.26); (2) age-adjusted odds of IM were higher for cigarette use (OR = 2.54; 95% CI = 1.54- 4.1), use of pipes (OR = 3.09; [95% CI = 1.86-5.11]), and betel quid chewing (OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.10-2.17); and (3) these associations remained after multivariable adjustment for environmental tobacco smoke, malnutrition, ethnicity, religion, marital status, education, income, occupation, and urban/rural dwelling. In addition to finding the established association with cigarettes, we also found that maternal use of smokeless tobacco and pipes was associated with higher rates of infant death in Cambodia.

  20. Female combat amputees have higher rates of posttraumatic stress disorder disability.

    PubMed

    Rivera, Jessica C; Krueger, Chad A; Johnson, Anthony E

    2015-01-01

    The civilian trauma literature suggests that the sexes differ in physical and mental health outcomes following traumatic injury. In order to determine if the reaction to combat injury is different between the sexes in a specific war wounded population, service members with amputations, we examined the disability profiles of male and female amputees. All US combatants who sustained a major extremity amputation between October 2001 and July 2011 were examined for demographic and injury information from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry and for disability outcomes in the service specific Physical Evaluation Boards. The proportions of women versus men with various disabling conditions were compared using Fisher's Exact Test and the mean disability ratings for each condition were compared using student's t tests. Among 1,107 amputees, 21 were female. There was no difference in the average age, military rank, or Injury Severity Score between the sexes. While the most common military occupation of male amputees was infantry service, the most common occupation for the female amputee was military police. The overall disability ratings between females and males were not different (82% for females, 75% for males). Female amputees had more frequent disability from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD, 8/21 [38%] vs 168/818 [17%]). Disability ratings from PTSD tended to also be higher in women. Outside of variable occupational descriptions, both male and female amputees were exposed to explosions resulting in their injuries. Consistent with many civilian trauma and veterans' population studies, female amputees have higher frequencies of disability from PTSD. These results support the need for additional effort and attention directed towards optimizing physical and mental fitness following deployment in order to reduce disability and promote return to duty. Because certain conditions, such as PTSD, may be more or less common in men versus women veterans, postdeployment

  1. Could heart rate variability predict outcome in patients with severe head injury? A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Rapenne, T; Moreau, D; Lenfant, F; Vernet, M; Boggio, V; Cottin, Y; Freysz, M

    2001-07-01

    Despite major improvements in the resuscitation of patients with head injury, the outcome of patients with head trauma often remains poor and difficult to establish. Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is a noninvasive tool used to measure autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate whether HRV analysis might be a useful adjunct for predicting outcome in patients with severe head injury. Twenty patients with severe head trauma (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] rate variability was assessed, in both time domain and spectral domain. The authors initially compared (on Day 1) HRV in patients who progressed to brain death to HRV in survivors; then during the awakening period compared HRV in surviving patients with good recovery (GCS >or= 10) to HRV in patients characterized by a worsened neurologic state (GCS < 10). Statistical analysis used the Kruskal-Wallis test, P < .05. To assess whether HRV could predict evolution to brain death, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated the day after trauma for Total Power, natural logarithm of high-frequency component of spectral analysis (LnHF), natural logarithm of low-frequency component of spectral analysis (LnLF), and root mean square for successive interval differences (rMSSD). Seven patients died between Day 1 and Day 5 after trauma. Six of those had progressed to brain death. In these six patients, at Day 1, Global HRV and parasympathetic tone were significantly higher. Referring to the area under the rMSSD ROC curve, HRV might provide useful information in predicting early evolution of patients with severe head trauma. During the awakening period, global HRV and the parasympathetic tone were significantly lower in the worsened neurologic state group. In conclusion, HRV could be helpful as a predictor of imminent brain death

  2. Predicting Fruit Fly's Sensing Rate From Insect Flight Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jane; Chang, Song

    2013-11-01

    Without sensory feedbacks, flies cannot fly. Exactly how sensory feedback controls work in flying insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure in order to stabilize their flight? What kinds of neural computations and muscle activities are involved in order to correct their flight course or to turn? How often and how fast do animals adjust their wings to remain stable? To understand the algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we have developed a simulation tool to study flapping flight, where motions of the insect body and wings are coupled instantaneously. To stabilize the flight in the simulation, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds both on the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting these findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we give a sharper bound on the sensing rate and further reason that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing-beat in order to stabilize their flight.

  3. Pedestrian crashes: higher injury severity and mortality rate for light truck vehicles compared with passenger vehicles

    PubMed Central

    Roudsari, B; Mock, C; Kaufman, R; Grossman, D; Henary, B; Crandall, J

    2004-01-01

    Introduction: During the last two decades changes in vehicle design and increase in the number of the light truck vehicles (LTVs) and vans have led to changes in pedestrian injury profile. Due to the dynamic nature of the pedestrian crashes biomechanical aspects of collisions can be better evaluated in field studies. Design and settings: The Pedestrian Crash Data Study, conducted from 1994 to 1998, provided a solid database upon which details and mechanism of pedestrian crashes can be investigated. Results: From 552 recorded cases in this database, 542 patients had complete injury related information, making a meaningful study of pedestrian crash characteristics possible. Pedestrians struck by LTVs had a higher risk (29%) of severe injuries (abbreviated injury scale ⩾4) compared with passenger vehicles (18%) (p = 0.02). After adjustment for pedestrian age and impact speed, LTVs were associated with 3.0 times higher risk of severe injuries (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26 to 7.29, p = 0.013). Mortality rate for pedestrians struck by LTVs (25%) was two times higher than that for passenger vehicles (12%) (p<0.001). Risk of death for LTV crashes after adjustment for pedestrian age and impact speed was 3.4 times higher than that for passenger vehicles (95% CI 1.45 to 7.81, p = 0.005). Conclusion: Vehicle type strongly influences risk of severe injury and death to pedestrian. This may be due in part to the front end design of the vehicle. Hence vehicle front end design, especially for LTVs, should be considered in future motor vehicle safety standards. PMID:15178671

  4. Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumazawa, T.; Ogata, Y.; Kimura, Y.; Maeda, K.; Kobayashi, A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed several times since 1980s monitored by strain-meters located nearby. Major swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic and preseismic significant sizes of a volumetric strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013), and have found the followings. The modified volumetric strain change data by removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps have much higher cross-correlations to the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate change of the ETAS, and further the strain changes precede the background seismicity by lag of about a day. This relation suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms in this region. References Earthquake Research Committee (2010). Report on "Prediction of seismic activity in the Izu Eastern Region" (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku/izu/index.htm Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS model, J Geophys.Res. 118, 6165-6182.

  5. Age of acquisition predicts rate of lexical evolution.

    PubMed

    Monaghan, Padraic

    2014-12-01

    The processes taking place during language acquisition are proposed to influence language evolution. However, evidence demonstrating the link between language learning and language evolution is, at best, indirect, constituting studies of laboratory-based artificial language learning studies or computational simulations of diachronic change. In the current study, a direct link between acquisition and evolution is established, showing that for two hundred fundamental vocabulary items, the age at which words are acquired is a predictor of the rate at which they have changed in studies of language evolution. Early-acquired words are more salient and easier to process than late-acquired words, and these early-acquired words are also more stably represented within the community's language. Analysing the properties of these early-acquired words potentially provides insight into the origins of communication, highlighting features of words that have been ultra-conserved in language. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Eye blink rate predicts individual differences in pseudoneglect

    PubMed Central

    Slagter, Heleen A.; Davidson, Richard J.; Tomer, Rachel

    2010-01-01

    Most healthy individuals display a subtle spatial attentional bias, exhibiting relative inattention for stimuli on one side of the visual field, a phenomenon known as pseudoneglect. Prior work in animals and patients has implicated dopamine in spatial attention asymmetries. The current study therefore examined - in healthy individuals - the relationship between the attentional bias and spontaneous eye-blink rate (EBR), a putative measure of central dopaminergic function. We found that those individuals, who blinked more often under resting conditions, displayed greater preference for the right side of the visual display in a subsequent attention task. This finding may support the idea that the observed attentional bias in healthy individuals reflects asymmetries in dopaminergic circuits, and corroborates previous findings implicating dopamine in spatial attention. PMID:20036680

  7. From Plants to Birds: Higher Avian Predation Rates in Trees Responding to Insect Herbivory

    PubMed Central

    Mäntylä, Elina; Alessio, Giorgio A.; Blande, James D.; Heijari, Juha; Holopainen, Jarmo K.; Laaksonen, Toni; Piirtola, Panu; Klemola, Tero

    2008-01-01

    Background An understanding of the evolution of potential signals from plants to the predators of their herbivores may provide exciting examples of co-evolution among multiple trophic levels. Understanding the mechanism behind the attraction of predators to plants is crucial to conclusions about co-evolution. For example, insectivorous birds are attracted to herbivore-damaged trees without seeing the herbivores or the defoliated parts, but it is not known whether birds use cues from herbivore-damaged plants with a specific adaptation of plants for this purpose. Methodology We examined whether signals from damaged trees attract avian predators in the wild and whether birds could use volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions or net photosynthesis of leaves as cues to detect herbivore-rich trees. We conducted a field experiment with mountain birches (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), their main herbivore (Epirrita autumnata) and insectivorous birds. Half of the trees had herbivore larvae defoliating trees hidden inside branch bags and half had empty bags as controls. We measured predation rate of birds towards artificial larvae on tree branches, and VOC emissions and net photosynthesis of leaves. Principal Findings and Significance The predation rate was higher in the herbivore trees than in the control trees. This confirms that birds use cues from trees to locate insect-rich trees in the wild. The herbivore trees had decreased photosynthesis and elevated emissions of many VOCs, which suggests that birds could use either one, or both, as cues. There was, however, large variation in how the VOC emission correlated with predation rate. Emissions of (E)-DMNT [(E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene], β-ocimene and linalool were positively correlated with predation rate, while those of highly inducible green leaf volatiles were not. These three VOCs are also involved in the attraction of insect parasitoids and predatory mites to herbivore-damaged plants, which suggests that

  8. Low-Fidelity Polymerases of Alphaviruses Recombine at Higher Rates To Overproduce Defective Interfering Particles

    PubMed Central

    Poirier, Enzo Z.; Mounce, Bryan C.; Rozen-Gagnon, Kathryn; Hooikaas, Peter Jan; Stapleford, Kenneth A.; Moratorio, Gonzalo

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerases for many RNA virus mutators have been shown to confer attenuated phenotypes, presumably due to increased mutation rates. Additionally, for many RNA viruses, replication to high titers results in the production of defective interfering particles (DIs) that also attenuate infection. We hypothesized that fidelity, recombination, and DI production are tightly linked. We show that a Sindbis virus mutator replicating at a high multiplicity of infection manifests an earlier and greater accumulation of DIs than its wild-type counterpart. The isolated DIs interfere with the replication of full-length virus in a dose-dependent manner. Importantly, the ability of the mutator virus to overproduce DIs could be linked to an increased recombination frequency. These data confirm that RNA-dependent RNA polymerase fidelity and recombination are inversely correlated for this mutator. Our findings suggest that defective interference resulting from higher recombination rates may be more detrimental to RNA virus mutators than the increase in mutational burden. IMPORTANCE Replication, adaptation, and evolution of RNA viruses rely in large part on their low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Viruses artificially modified in their polymerases to decrease fidelity (mutator viruses) are attenuated in vivo, demonstrating the important role of fidelity in viral fitness. However, attenuation was attributed solely to the modification of the viral mutation rate and the accumulation of detrimental point mutations. In this work, we described an additional phenotype of mutator viruses: an increased recombination rate leading to defective interfering particle (DI) overproduction. Because DIs are known for their inhibitory effect on viral replication, our work suggests that fidelity variants may be attenuated in vivo via several mechanisms. This has important implications in the development of fidelity variants as live attenuated vaccine strains

  9. Higher Fresh Gas Flow Rates Decrease Tidal Volume During Pressure Control Ventilation.

    PubMed

    Mohammad, Shazia; Gravenstein, Nikolaus; Gonsalves, Drew; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Lampotang, Samsun

    2017-05-01

    We observed that increasing fresh gas flow (FGF) decreased exhaled tidal volume (VT) during pressure control ventilation (PCV). A literature search produced no such description whereby unintended VT changes occur with FGF changes during PCV. To model an infant's lungs, 1 lung of a mechanical lung model (Dual Adult TTL 1600; Michigan Instruments, Inc, Grand Rapids, MI) was set at a compliance of 0.0068 L/cm H2O. An Rp50 resistor (27.2 cm H2O/L/s at 15 L/min) simulated normal bronchial resistance. The simulated lung was connected to a pediatric breathing circuit via a 3.5-mm cuffed endotracheal tube. A ventilator with PCV capability (Model 7900; Aestiva, GE Healthcare, Madison, WI) measured exhaled VT, and a flow monitor (NICO; Respironics, Murraysville, PA) measured peak inspiratory flow, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), and peak inspiratory pressure. In PCV mode, exhaled VT displayed by the ventilator at FGF rates of 1, 6, 10, and 15 L/min was manually recorded across multiple ventilator settings. This protocol was repeated for the Avance CS2 anesthesia machine (GE Healthcare). For the Aestiva, higher FGF rates in PCV mode decreased exhaled VT. Exhaled VT for FGFs of 1, 6, 10, and 15 L/min were on average 48, 34.9, 16.5, and 10 mL, respectively, at ventilator settings of inspiratory pressure of 10 cm H2O, PEEP of 0 cm H2O, and respiratory rate of 20 breaths/min. This is a decrease by up to 27%, 65.6%, and 79.2% when FGFs of 6, 10, and 15 L/min are compared with a FGF of 1 L/min, respectively. In the GE Avance CS2 at the same ventilator settings, VT for FGF rates of 1, 6, 10, and 15 L/min were on average 46, 43, 40.4, and 39.7 mL, respectively. The FGF effect on VT was not as pronounced with the GE Avance CS2 as with the GE Aestiva. FGF has a significant effect on VT during PCV in the Aestiva bellows ventilator, suggesting caution when changing FGF during PCV in infants. Our hypothesis is that at higher FGF rates, an inadvertent PEEP is developed by the flow

  10. Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

    PubMed

    Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

    2016-09-06

    Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies.

  11. A higher-than-predicted measurement of iron opacity at solar interior temperatures.

    PubMed

    Bailey, J E; Nagayama, T; Loisel, G P; Rochau, G A; Blancard, C; Colgan, J; Cosse, Ph; Faussurier, G; Fontes, C J; Gilleron, F; Golovkin, I; Hansen, S B; Iglesias, C A; Kilcrease, D P; MacFarlane, J J; Mancini, R C; Nahar, S N; Orban, C; Pain, J-C; Pradhan, A K; Sherrill, M; Wilson, B G

    2015-01-01

    Nearly a century ago it was recognized that radiation absorption by stellar matter controls the internal temperature profiles within stars. Laboratory opacity measurements, however, have never been performed at stellar interior conditions, introducing uncertainties in stellar models. A particular problem arose when refined photosphere spectral analysis led to reductions of 30-50 per cent in the inferred amounts of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in the Sun. Standard solar models using the revised element abundances disagree with helioseismic observations that determine the internal solar structure using acoustic oscillations. This could be resolved if the true mean opacity for the solar interior matter were roughly 15 per cent higher than predicted, because increased opacity compensates for the decreased element abundances. Iron accounts for a quarter of the total opacity at the solar radiation/convection zone boundary. Here we report measurements of wavelength-resolved iron opacity at electron temperatures of 1.9-2.3 million kelvin and electron densities of (0.7-4.0) × 10(22) per cubic centimetre, conditions very similar to those in the solar region that affects the discrepancy the most: the radiation/convection zone boundary. The measured wavelength-dependent opacity is 30-400 per cent higher than predicted. This represents roughly half the change in the mean opacity needed to resolve the solar discrepancy, even though iron is only one of many elements that contribute to opacity.

  12. Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of national fire danger rating indexes

    Treesearch

    Jeanne L. Hoadley; Miriam L. Rorig; Larry Bradshaw; Sue A. Ferguson; Kenneth J. Westrick; Scott L. Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2006-01-01

    Weather predictions from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to compute gridded predictions of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes. The model output was applied to a case study of the 2000 fire season in Northern Idaho and Western Montana to simulate an extreme event. To determine the preferred resolution for automating NFD RS predictions, model...

  13. Model predictions of higher-order normal alkane ignition from dilute shock-tube experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotavera, B.; Petersen, E. L.

    2013-07-01

    Shock-induced oxidation of two higher-order linear alkanes was measured using a heated shock tube facility. Experimental overlap in stoichiometric ignition delay times obtained under dilute (99 % Ar) conditions near atmospheric pressure was observed in the temperature-dependent ignition trends of n-nonane ( n-C9H20) and n-undecane ( n-C11H24). Despite the overlap, model predictions of ignition using two different detailed chemical kinetics mechanisms show discrepancies relative to both the measured data as well as to one another. The present study therefore focuses on the differences observed in the modeled, high-temperature ignition delay times of higher-order n-alkanes, which are generally regarded to have identical ignition behavior for carbon numbers above C7. Comparisons are drawn using experimental data from the present study and from recent work by the authors relative to two existing chemical kinetics mechanisms. Time histories from the shock-tube OH* measurements are also compared to the model predictions; a double-peaked structure observed in the data shows that the time response of the detector electronics is crucial for properly capturing the first, incipient peak near time zero. Calculations using the two mechanisms were carried out at the dilution level employed in the shock-tube experiments for lean {({φ} = 0.5)}, stoichiometric, and rich {({φ} = 2.0)} equivalence ratios, 1230-1620 K, and for both 1.5 and 10 atm. In general, the models show differing trends relative to both measured data and to one another, indicating that agreement among chemical kinetics models for higher-order n-alkanes is not consistent. For example, under certain conditions, one mechanism predicts the ignition delay times to be virtually identical between the n-nonane and n-undecane fuels (in fact, also for all alkanes between at least C8 and C12), which is in agreement with the experiment, while the other mechanism predicts the larger fuels to ignite progressively more slowly.

  14. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-17

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts.

  15. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

    PubMed

    Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

    2015-12-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness.

  16. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-01

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts. PMID:28094328

  17. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Brett Q.; Dmitrieva, Julia O.; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A.; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B.

    2015-01-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, we propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed – and thus pursued – in relatively socially-engaged ways. In four geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (U.S., Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants’ well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially-engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the U.S., did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially-engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

  18. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-01

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts.

  19. Rate of Peri-Hematomal Edema Expansion Predicts Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Urday, Sebastian; Beslow, Lauren A.; Dai, Feng; Zhang, Fan; Battey, Thomas W.K.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Ayres, Alison M.; Leasure, Audrey C.; Selim, Magdy H.; Simard, J. Marc; Rosand, Jonathan; Kimberly, W. Taylor; Sheth, Kevin N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a devastating disorder with no current treatment. Whether peri-hematomal edema (PHE) is an independent predictor of neurologic outcome is controversial. We sought to determine whether PHE expansion rate predicts outcome after ICH. Design Retrospective cohort study Setting Tertiary medical center Patients 139 consecutive supratentorial spontaneous ICH patients >18 years admitted between 2000–2013. Interventions None Measurements and Main Results ICH, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and PHE volumes were measured from computed tomography (CT) scans obtained at presentation, 24 hours, and 72 hours post-ICH. PHE expansion rate was the difference between initial and follow-up PHE volumes divided by the time interval. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the relationship between 1) PHE expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day mortality and 2) PHE expansion rate at 24 hours and 90-day modified Rankin Scale score (mRS). PHE expansion rate between admission and 24-hours post-ICH was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality (OR 2.97, 95%CI 1.48–5.99, p=0.002). This association persisted after adjusting for all components of the ICH score (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.05–4.64, p=0.04). Similarly, higher 24-hour PHE expansion rate was associated with poorer mRS in an ordinal shift analysis (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.37–4.21, p=.002), even after adjustment for all ICH score components (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.12–3.83, p=0.02). Conclusions Faster PHE expansion rate 24 hours post-ICH is associated with worse outcome. PHE may represent an attractive translational target for secondary injury after ICH. PMID:26757167

  20. Nanoaperture-enhanced fluorescence: Towards higher detection rates with plasmonic metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gérard, Davy; Wenger, Jérôme; Bonod, Nicolas; Popov, Evgeni; Rigneault, Hervé; Mahdavi, Farhad; Blair, Steve; Dintinger, José; Ebbesen, Thomas W.

    2008-01-01

    A bare nanometric aperture milled in a metallic film forms a simple nanophotonic device that can strongly enhance the optical properties of nearby emitters such as fluorescent molecules. In this paper, we experimentally and numerically compare the properties of circular apertures milled in gold and aluminum, and discuss the influence of a noble metal holding plasmonic resonances in the visible range such as gold. We report that nanometric apertures milled in gold exhibit significantly higher fluorescence enhancement factors than apertures in aluminum. We relate this effect to a larger enhancement of the excitation intensity and radiative rate for an aperture milled in gold. A spectrally resolved analysis of the fluorescence emission from apertures is also presented. Comparison with numerical simulations shows that the enhancement factor is maximum when the photonic density of modes is maximum. Altogether, these results provide crucial knowledge for the design of nanoapertures towards high-efficiency single-molecule analysis.

  1. Unrecognized high brachial artery bifurcation is associated with higher rate of dialysis access failure.

    PubMed

    Kirksey, Lee

    2011-01-01

    A thorough consideration of all factors contributing to successful dialysis access creation is necessary to achieve optimal outcomes. A high bifurcation of the brachial artery (brachioradial variant) occurs in greater than 20% of patients. Dialysis access was created in 22 limbs with this variant--15 fistula, and 7 prosthetic grafts. Nonmaturation occurred in 33% of fistula. Early thromboses occurred in 29% of prosthetic bridge grafts. In this experience, the brachioradial variant is associated with a relatively higher rate of fistula nonmaturation and prosthetic graft thromboses. These findings reinforce the critical role of preoperative imaging studies in dialysis access creation. A sound algorithm for the surgical management of the brachioradial variation facilitates decision making and will improve dialysis access outcomes.

  2. Signal identification for rare and weak features: higher criticism or false discovery rates?

    PubMed

    Klaus, Bernd; Strimmer, Korbinian

    2013-01-01

    Signal identification in large-dimensional settings is a challenging problem in biostatistics. Recently, the method of higher criticism (HC) was shown to be an effective means for determining appropriate decision thresholds. Here, we study HC from a false discovery rate (FDR) perspective. We show that the HC threshold may be viewed as an approximation to a natural class boundary (CB) in two-class discriminant analysis which in turn is expressible as the FDR threshold. We demonstrate that in a rare-weak setting in the region of the phase space where signal identification is possible, both thresholds are practicably indistinguishable, and thus HC thresholding is identical to using a simple local FDR cutoff. The relationship of the HC and CB thresholds and their properties are investigated both analytically and by simulations, and are further compared by the application to four cancer gene expression data sets.

  3. Principles, approaches, and challenges for predicting protein aggregation rates and shelf life.

    PubMed

    Weiss, William F; Young, Teresa M; Roberts, Christopher J

    2009-04-01

    Control and prevention of unwanted aggregation for therapeutic proteins is a ubiquitous hurdle during biopharmaceutical product manufacture, storage, shipping, and administration. Methods to predict the relative or absolute rates of aggregation are therefore of great practical interest in biopharmaceutical research and development. Aggregation is often well-described as a multi-stage process involving unfolding or misfolding of free monomers, along with one or more assembly steps to form soluble or insoluble oligomers or higher-molecular-weight species. This report reviews the current state of the art in experimental and practical theoretical approaches that attempt to predict in vitro protein aggregation rates or propensities relevant to pharmaceutical proteins. Most available approaches fall within four primary categories. The principles and assumptions underlying each category are reviewed, along with advantages and limitations in each case. The importance of appropriate experimental techniques and models to probe and quantify the thermodynamics and/or dynamics of multiple steps or stages within the overall aggregation process is stressed. The primary focus is on aggregation in solution, relevant to parenteral dosage forms. Additional challenges are briefly reviewed.

  4. Prediction of the absolute aggregation rates of amyloidogenic polypeptide chains.

    PubMed

    DuBay, Kateri F; Pawar, Amol P; Chiti, Fabrizio; Zurdo, Jesús; Dobson, Christopher M; Vendruscolo, Michele

    2004-08-27

    Protein aggregation is associated with a variety of pathological conditions, including Alzheimer's and Creutzfeldt-Jakob diseases and type II diabetes. Such degenerative disorders result from the conversion of the normal soluble state of specific proteins into aggregated states that can ultimately form the characteristic amyloid fibrils found in diseased tissue. Under appropriate conditions it appears that many, perhaps all, proteins can be converted in vitro into amyloid fibrils. The aggregation propensities of different polypeptide chains have, however, been observed to vary substantially. Here, we describe an approach that uses the knowledge of the amino acid sequence and of the experimental conditions to reproduce, with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 and over five orders of magnitude, the in vitro aggregation rates of a wide range of unstructured peptides and proteins. These results indicate that the formation of protein aggregates can be rationalised to a considerable extent in terms of simple physico-chemical parameters that describe the properties of polypeptide chains and their environment.

  5. Climatological observations and predicted sublimation rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clow, G.D.; McKay, C.P.; Simmons, G.M.; Wharton, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong fo??hn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter fo??hns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

  6. Does higher income inequality adversely influence infant mortality rates? Reconciling descriptive patterns and recent research findings.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Erwin, Paul Campbell

    2015-04-01

    As the struggle continues to explain the relatively high rates of infant mortality (IMR) exhibited in the United States, a renewed emphasis is being placed on the role of possible 'contextual' determinants. Cross-sectional and short time-series studies have found that higher income inequality is associated with higher IMR at the state level. Yet, descriptively, the longer-term trends in income inequality and in IMR seem to call such results into question. To assess whether, over the period 1990-2007, state-level income inequality is associated with state-level IMR; to examine whether the overall effect of income inequality on IMR over this period varies by state; to test whether the association between income inequality and IMR varies across this time period. IMR data--number of deaths per 1000 live births in a given state and year--were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Wonder database. Income inequality was measured using the Gini coefficient, which varies from zero (complete equality) to 100 (complete inequality). Covariates included state-level poverty rate, median income, and proportion of high school graduates. Fixed and random effects regressions were conducted to test hypotheses. Fixed effects models suggested that, overall, during the period 1990-2007, income inequality was inversely associated with IMR (β = -0.07, SE (0.01)). Random effects models suggested that when the relationship was allowed to vary at the state-level, it remained inverse (β = -0.05, SE (0.01)). However, an interaction between income inequality and time suggested that, as time increased, the effect of income inequality had an increasingly positive association with total IMR (β = 0.009, SE (0.002)). The influence of state income inequality on IMR is dependent on time, which may proxy for time-dependent aspects of societal context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting Progression of Glaucoma from Rates of Frequency Doubling Technology Perimetry Change

    PubMed Central

    Meira-Freitas, Daniel; Tatham, Andrew J.; Lisboa, Renato; Kuang, Tung-Mei; Zangwill, Linda M.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Girkin, Christopher A.; Liebmann, Jeffrey M.; Medeiros, Felipe A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the ability of longitudinal frequency doubling technology (FDT) to predict development of glaucomatous visual field loss on standard automated perimetry (SAP) in glaucoma suspects. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Participants The study included 587 eyes of 367 patients with suspected glaucoma at baseline selected from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study (DIGS) and the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study (ADAGES). These eyes had an average of 6.7±1.9 FDT tests during a mean follow-up time of 73.1±28.0 months. Methods Glaucoma suspects had either intraocular pressure >21mmHg or an optic disc appearance suspicious of glaucoma. All patients had either normal or non-repeatable abnormal SAP at baseline. Humphrey Matrix FDT testing was performed within 6 months of SAP testing. The study endpoint was the development of 3 consecutive abnormal SAP tests. Joint longitudinal survival models were used to evaluate the ability of rates of FDT pattern standard deviation (PSD) change to predict development of visual field loss on SAP, adjusting for confounding variables (baseline age, mean intraocular pressure, corneal thickness, and follow-up measurements of SAP PSD). Main Outcome Measures The R2 index was used to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of the model containing longitudinal FDT PSD data with the model containing only baseline data. Results Sixty-three of 587 (11%) eyes developed SAP visual field loss during follow-up. The mean rate of FDT PSD change in eyes that developed SAP visual field loss was 0.07dB/year versus 0.02dB/year in those that did not (P<0.001). Baseline FDT PSD and slopes of FDT PSD change were significantly predictive of progression, with hazard ratios of 1.11 per 0.1dB higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 - 1.18; P=0.002) and 4.40 per 0.1dB/year faster (95%CI: 1.08 - 17.96; P=0.04), respectively. The longitudinal model performed significantly better than the baseline model with R2

  8. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators.

    PubMed

    Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  9. Positive Attitude toward Healthy Eating Predicts Higher Diet Quality at All Cost Levels of Supermarkets☆

    PubMed Central

    Aggarwal, Anju; Monsivais, Pablo; Cook, Andrea J.; Drewnowski, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Shopping at low-cost supermarkets has been associated with higher obesity rates. This study examined whether attitudes toward healthy eating are independently associated with diet quality among shoppers at low-cost, medium-cost, and high-cost supermarkets. Data on socioeconomic status (SES), attitudes toward healthy eating, and supermarket choice were collected using a telephone survey of a representative sample of adult residents of King County, WA. Dietary intake data were based on a food frequency questionnaire. Thirteen supermarket chains were stratified into three categories: low, medium, and high cost, based on a market basket of 100 commonly eaten foods. Diet-quality measures were energy density, mean adequacy ratio, and total servings of fruits and vegetables. The analytical sample consisted of 963 adults. Multivariable regressions with robust standard error examined relations between diet quality, supermarket type, attitudes, and SES. Shopping at higher-cost supermarkets was associated with higher-quality diets. These associations persisted after adjusting for SES, but were eliminated after taking attitudinal measures into account. Supermarket shoppers with positive attitudes toward healthy eating had equally higher-quality diets, even if they shopped at low-, medium-, or high-cost supermarkets, independent of SES and other covariates. These findings imply that shopping at low-cost supermarkets does not prevent consumers from having high-quality diets, as long as they attach importance to good nutrition. Promoting nutrition-education strategies among supermarkets, particularly those catering to low-income groups, can help to improve diet quality. PMID:23916974

  10. Positive attitude toward healthy eating predicts higher diet quality at all cost levels of supermarkets.

    PubMed

    Aggarwal, Anju; Monsivais, Pablo; Cook, Andrea J; Drewnowski, Adam

    2014-02-01

    Shopping at low-cost supermarkets has been associated with higher obesity rates. This study examined whether attitudes toward healthy eating are independently associated with diet quality among shoppers at low-cost, medium-cost, and high-cost supermarkets. Data on socioeconomic status (SES), attitudes toward healthy eating, and supermarket choice were collected using a telephone survey of a representative sample of adult residents of King County, WA. Dietary intake data were based on a food frequency questionnaire. Thirteen supermarket chains were stratified into three categories: low, medium, and high cost, based on a market basket of 100 commonly eaten foods. Diet-quality measures were energy density, mean adequacy ratio, and total servings of fruits and vegetables. The analytical sample consisted of 963 adults. Multivariable regressions with robust standard error examined relations between diet quality, supermarket type, attitudes, and SES. Shopping at higher-cost supermarkets was associated with higher-quality diets. These associations persisted after adjusting for SES, but were eliminated after taking attitudinal measures into account. Supermarket shoppers with positive attitudes toward healthy eating had equally higher-quality diets, even if they shopped at low-, medium-, or high-cost supermarkets, independent of SES and other covariates. These findings imply that shopping at low-cost supermarkets does not prevent consumers from having high-quality diets, as long as they attach importance to good nutrition. Promoting nutrition-education strategies among supermarkets, particularly those catering to low-income groups, can help to improve diet quality.

  11. Rate of homologous chromosome bivalents in spermatocytes may predict completion of spermatogenesis in azoospermic men.

    PubMed

    Yogev, Leah; Gamzu, Ronni; Paz, Gedalia; Kleiman, Sandra; Botchan, Amnon; Hauser, Ron; Yavetz, Haim

    2002-01-01

    Abstract. The rate of bivalent formation during meiosis was correlated with the presence and amount of spermatozoa in the testes of azoospermic men. Four pairs of chromosomes, X-Y, 9, 15, and 18, were evaluated. In addition, left and right testes were compared. Three biopsies from each testis were undertaken to extract spermatozoa for intracytoplasmic sperm injection. In addition, one sample from each testis was used for histological definition, spermatozoa count and detection of chromosome bivalents in spermatocytes. A significantly higher rate of bivalents of all homologous chromosomes was found whenever spermatozoa were detected. The rate of bivalent X-Y was found to be the most sensitive predictor for detection of spermatozoa, with a cut-off value of 47%. The R(2) was 27% ( P=0.003) for the percent of spermatozoa in the minced sample as well as the number of mature spermatids per tubule in the histological section. All pairs of testes were in concord in regard to the likelihood of finding spermatozoa. In the testes where no spermatozoa were found on biopsy, the rate of X-Y bivalent indicated the presence of spermatozoa in the opposite side. Thus, it may be concluded that the rate of X-Y bivalent formation in spermatocytes may predict the presence and amount of spermatozoa in the testicular tissue of azoospermic men. It is suggested that when no spermatozoa are located by testicular fine-needle aspiration, X-Y bivalent evaluation may be conducted if spermatocytes are evinced. A high rate of X-Y bivalents may impel one to continue with testicular open biopsies.

  12. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    PubMed Central

    Botticelli, Andrea; Borro, Marina; Onesti, Concetta Elisa; Strigari, Lidia; Gentile, Giovanna; Cerbelli, Bruna; Romiti, Adriana; Occhipinti, Mario; Sebastiani, Claudia; Lionetto, Luana; Marchetti, Luca; Simmaco, Maurizio; Marchetti, Paolo; Mazzuca, Federica

    2016-01-01

    Background 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR) and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD) on survival. Materials and Methods Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome. Results 133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM) with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts); normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts); ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM) with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts). PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029). A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019). No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed. Conclusion 5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes. PMID:27656891

  13. Lower Serum Zinc and Higher CRP Strongly Predict Prenatal Depression and Physio-somatic Symptoms, Which All Together Predict Postnatal Depressive Symptoms.

    PubMed

    Roomruangwong, Chutima; Kanchanatawan, Buranee; Sirivichayakul, Sunee; Mahieu, Boris; Nowak, Gabriel; Maes, Michael

    2017-03-01

    Pregnancy and delivery are associated with activation of immune-inflammatory pathways which may prime parturients to develop postnatal depression. There are, however, few data on the associations between immune-inflammatory pathways and prenatal depression and physio-somatic symptoms. This study examined the associations between serum zinc, C-reactive protein (CRP), and haptoglobin at the end of term and prenatal physio-somatic symptoms (fatigue, back pain, muscle pain, dyspepsia, obstipation) and prenatal and postnatal depressive and anxiety symptoms as measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), and Spielberger's State Anxiety Inventory (STAI). Zinc and haptoglobin were significantly lower and CRP increased at the end of term as compared with non-pregnant women. Prenatal depression was predicted by lower zinc and lifetime history of depression, anxiety, and premenstrual tension syndrome (PMS). The latter histories were also significantly and inversely related to lower zinc. The severity of prenatal EDPS, HAMD, BDI, STAI, and physio-somatic symptoms was predicted by fatigue in the first and second trimesters, a positive life history of depression, anxiety, and PMS, and lower zinc and higher CRP. Postnatal depressive symptoms are predicted by prenatal depression, physio-somatic symptoms, zinc and CRP. Prenatal depressive and physio-somatic symptoms have an immune-inflammatory pathophysiology, while postnatal depressive symptoms are highly predicted by prenatal immune activation, prenatal depression, and a lifetime history of depression and PMS. Previous episodes of depression, anxiety disorders, and PMS may prime pregnant females to develop prenatal and postnatal depressive symptoms via activated immune pathways.

  14. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations

    PubMed Central

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F.; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  15. Reliable Ratings or Reading Tea Leaves: Can Parent, Teacher, and Clinician Behavioral Ratings of Preschoolers Predict ADHD at Age Six?

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Sarah; Schneiderman, Robyn L.; Rajendran, Khushmand; Marks, David J.; Halperin, Jeffrey M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the relative ability of parent, teacher, and clinician behavioral ratings of preschoolers to predict ADHD severity and diagnosis at 6 years of age. Method Hyperactive/inattentive preschoolers [N=104, 75% boys, Mean (SD) age = 4.37 (.47) years] were followed over two years (mean=26.44 months, SD=5.66). At baseline (BL), parents and teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV and clinicians completed the Behavioral Rating Inventory for Children following a psychological testing session. At age 6, [Mean (SD) age = 6.62 (.35) years], parents were interviewed with the K-SADS-PL; teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV; and laboratory measures of hyperactivity, impulsivity, and inattention were obtained from children. Hierarchical logistic and linear regression analyses examined which combination of BL ratings best predicted 6-year-old ADHD diagnosis and severity, respectively. Results At age 6, 56 (53.8%) children met DSM-IV criteria for a diagnosis of ADHD. BL ratings from parent/teacher/clinician, parent/teacher and parent/clinician combinations significantly predicted children who had an ADHD diagnosis at age 6. Parent and clinician, but not teacher, behavior ratings were significant independent predictors of ADHD diagnosis and severity at 6-years-old. However, only clinician reports of preschoolers’ behaviors predicted laboratory measures of over-activity and inattention at follow-up. Conclusion Cross-situationality is important for a diagnosis of ADHD during the preschool years. Among parents, teachers and clinicians, positive endorsements from all three informants, parent/teacher or parent/clinician appear to have prognostic value. Clinicians’ ratings of preschoolers’ inattention, impulsivity and hyperactivity are valid sources of information for predicting ADHD diagnosis and severity over time. PMID:24085388

  16. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    PubMed

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  17. Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models.

    PubMed

    Cucinotta, Francis A; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-12

    Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-set for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth's geomagnetic sphere.

  18. Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

    DOE PAGES

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Cacao, Eliedonna

    2017-05-12

    Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-setmore » for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth’s geomagnetic sphere.« less

  19. Prediction of future credit rating using a non-Markovian model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Gan Chew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Haur, Ng Kok

    2017-04-01

    The matrix of transition probabilities between rating classes is a popular approach for predicting the future credit rating. This paper instead attempts to predict the future credit rating using a non-Markovian model. The prediction is done via the probability of the future credit rating given the ratings in the present and previous quarters. The estimation of the conditional probability of future credit rating is carried out by means of simulation after fitting the data with a multivariate power-normal distribution. The results based on the quarterly credit ratings of ten companies over 15 years taken from the database of the Taiwan Economic Journal indicate the need of extending the Markovian model to the non-Markovian model.

  20. Predicting the Rate of Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer Disease: Data From the ICTUS Study.

    PubMed

    Canevelli, Marco; Kelaiditi, Eirini; Del Campo, Natalia; Bruno, Giuseppe; Vellas, Bruno; Cesari, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    Different rates of cognitive progression have been observed among Alzheimer disease (AD) patients. The present study aimed at evaluating whether the rate of cognitive worsening in AD may be predicted by widely available and easy-to-assess factors. Mild to moderate AD patients were recruited in the ICTUS study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to measure the association between several sociodemographic and clinical variables and 3 different rates of cognitive decline defined by modifications (after 1 year of follow-up) of the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score: (1) "slow" progression, as indicated by a decrease in the MMSE score ≤1 point; (2) "intermediate" progression, decrease in the MMSE score between 2 and 5 points; and (3) "rapid" progression, decrease in the MMSE score ≥6 points. A total of 1005 patients were considered for the present analyses. Overall, most of the study participants (52%) exhibited a slow cognitive course. Higher ADAS-Cog scores at baseline were significantly associated with both "intermediate" and "rapid" decline. Conversely, increasing age was negatively associated with "rapid" cognitive worsening. A slow progression of cognitive decline is common among AD patients. The influence of age and baseline cognitive impairment should always be carefully considered when designing AD trials and defining study populations.

  1. Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

  2. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore: A Comparison With YLS/CMI Ratings.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2016-06-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI.

  3. Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

  4. Student and Teacher Ratings of Instructional Quality: Consistency of Ratings over Time, Agreement, and Predictive Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Göllner, Richard; Werth, Sarah; Voss, Thamar; Schmitz, Bernhard; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that the agreement between teacher and student ratings of instructional quality is, at best, moderate, and the associations between measures of instructional quality and outcomes such as standardized achievement are typically small and somewhat mixed across both perspectives. One explanation for these low-to-moderate…

  5. Student and Teacher Ratings of Instructional Quality: Consistency of Ratings over Time, Agreement, and Predictive Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Göllner, Richard; Werth, Sarah; Voss, Thamar; Schmitz, Bernhard; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that the agreement between teacher and student ratings of instructional quality is, at best, moderate, and the associations between measures of instructional quality and outcomes such as standardized achievement are typically small and somewhat mixed across both perspectives. One explanation for these low-to-moderate…

  6. Epidural insertion simulator of higher insertion resistance & drop rate after puncture.

    PubMed

    Naemura, K; Sakai, A; Hayashi, T; Saito, H

    2008-01-01

    Accidents such as dural puncture remain one of the problems of epidural anesthesia, and unskilled doctors can repeat such accidents. The purpose of the current research was to provide a new simulator for epidural insertion training. No reference data regarding the resistance force used when inserting a needle into patients have been reported. A comparative study was conducted to aid in the development of a new simulator. Pork loin (n=5) were employed as a substitute for patients. Thickness was set at 2 cm so as to improve the reproducibility. The authors took the conventional simulator apart, and picked a block as an analogue of muscle and ligamentum flavum. A new simulator was made of a melamine foam resin block and a latex rubber sheet. An epidural needle fixed on a motorized stage was inserted at the speed of 2 mm per second. The reaction force was measured while the needle was inserted into each specimen. Waveform of the pork loin exhibited two slopes of different inclines up to peaks and then falls after puncture. The conventional simulator showed a simple increase up to peak and a slow fall after puncture. In contrast, the new simulator showed two slopes up to peak and then a sudden fall after puncture. The insertion resistances were 2.5 N/s for the porcine, 0.8 N/s for the conventional and 2.1 N/s for the new simulator. The drop rates were 5 N/s for the porcine, 0.6 N/s for the conventional and 24 N/s for the new simulator. The higher insertion resistance and drop rate for the new simulator than the conventional simulator will be suitable for epidural insertion training.

  7. Higher Rates of Adolescent Substance Use in Child Welfare Versus Community Populations in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Fettes, Danielle L.; Aarons, Gregory A.; Green, Amy E.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Youth substance use exacts costly consequences for a variety of important health outcomes. We examined and compared prevalence rates and a common set of psychosocial factors of lifetime and current substance use among child welfare–involved youths and community youths from two nationally representative data sets. Method: Using the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we compared prevalence rates and conducted logistic regression models for eight binary outcome measures of substance use: lifetime and current use of alcohol, inhalant, marijuana, and other illicit drugs to examine predictors of substance involvement in the two samples. Results: Substance use prevalence was higher among child welfare–involved youths than community youths for lifetime marijuana use, lifetime and current inhalant use, and lifetime and current other illicit drug use. Among both child welfare–involved and community youths, delinquency was the factor most strongly associated with all lifetime substance use outcomes. Notably, family structure and parental closeness were important protective factors against current substance use among child welfare–involved youths. For community youths, poorer emotional health was the strongest indicator of current substance use. Conclusions: Substance use among all adolescents is a critical public health concern. Given the heightened vulnerability of child welfare–involved youths, it is particularly important to focus prevention and early intervention efforts on this population. Further research should explore additional factors associated with substance use among these youths so that child welfare and behavioral health systems may jointly target prevention and intervention efforts. PMID:24172108

  8. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    SciTech Connect

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhaeuser, R.; Guenther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-09

    Next-generation {gamma} beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 10{sup 13}{gamma}/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses ({approx}120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a {gamma} pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 10{sup 18}{gamma}/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel {gamma} optics will be applied to monochromatize the {gamma} beam to ultimately {Delta}E/E{approx}10{sup -6}. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding {gamma} detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr{sub 3}(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7}{gamma}/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr{sub 3} detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  9. Monitoring and assessment of ingestive chewing sounds for prediction of herbage intake rate in grazing cattle.

    PubMed

    Galli, J R; Cangiano, C A; Pece, M A; Larripa, M J; Milone, D H; Utsumi, S A; Laca, E A

    2017-10-10

    Accurate measurement of herbage intake rate is critical to advance knowledge of the ecology of grazing ruminants. This experiment tested the integration of behavioral and acoustic measurements of chewing and biting to estimate herbage dry matter intake (DMI) in dairy cows offered micro-swards of contrasting plant structure. Micro-swards constructed with plastic pots were offered to three lactating Holstein cows (608±24.9 kg of BW) in individual grazing sessions (n=48). Treatments were a factorial combination of two forage species (alfalfa and fescue) and two plant heights (tall=25±3.8 cm and short=12±1.9 cm) and were offered on a gradient of increasing herbage mass (10 to 30 pots) and number of bites (~10 to 40 bites). During each grazing session, sounds of biting and chewing were recorded with a wireless microphone placed on the cows' foreheads and a digital video camera to allow synchronized audio and video recordings. Dry matter intake rate was higher in tall alfalfa than in the other three treatments (32±1.6 v. 19±1.2 g/min). A high proportion of jaw movements in every grazing session (23 to 36%) were compound jaw movements (chew-bites) that appeared to be a key component of chewing and biting efficiency and of the ability of cows to regulate intake rate. Dry matter intake was accurately predicted based on easily observable behavioral and acoustic variables. Chewing sound energy measured as energy flux density (EFD) was linearly related to DMI, with 74% of EFD variation explained by DMI. Total chewing EFD, number of chew-bites and plant height (tall v. short) were the most important predictors of DMI. The best model explained 91% of the variation in DMI with a coefficient of variation of 17%. Ingestive sounds integrate valuable information to remotely monitor feeding behavior and predict DMI in grazing cows.

  10. Malignancy Rate, Number Needed to Treat, and Positive Predictive Value for Breast MRI.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, John S; Robbins, Patrick A

    2016-09-01

    Breast MRI is being used more frequently for advanced screening for breast cancer. Patients may be at increased risk, or are symptomatic, with nonsuspicious mammograms. There is little data regarding the likelihood of a recommendation for biopsy, or for detecting a malignancy, in this population. We intended to determine the malignancy rate, number needed to treat, and positive predictive value for patients receiving adjunctive MRI at our institution. A retrospective review of all breast MRIs from 2008 to 2010 was done. Patients with any prior diagnosis of breast cancer, or BRCA+ were excluded. There were 324 patients. Most common reasons for ordering the breast MRI included: abnormal test result 130 (44%), palpable mass 74 (23%), family history 58 (18%), breast pain 47 (15%), and nipple discharge 45 (14%). Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System score (BIRADS) was 1 or 2 in 36 per cent, 4 or 5 in 18 per cent, 3 in 26 per cent, 0 in 10 per cent, and not given in 9 per cent. Biopsy was recommended in 77 (24%), with biopsy actually performed in 57 (18%). Of the eight cancers identified, four (1.2%) were ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and four (1.2%) were invasive cancer, yielding a true-positive rate of 2.5 per cent. Number needed to treat was 40. Positive predictive value was 14 per cent with a false-positive rate of 86 per cent. In this group of generally higher risk women, typically prescreened with mammography, 1.2 per cent had an invasive cancer, and another 1.2 per cent had DCIS. Those who undergo biopsy are 6.1 times more likely to have benign pathology. The efficacy of adjunctive breast MRI could be improved through refinements in indication, test interpretation, or alternative screening strategies.

  11. Use of ratings of perceived exertion for predicting maximal work rate and prescribing exercise intensity in patients taking atenolol.

    PubMed Central

    Eston, R G; Thompson, M

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of Borg's rating of perceived exertion (RPE) scale to predict maximal exercise levels to control exercise intensity in patients taking atenolol for the treatment of essential hypertension. Normally, a standard formula (220-age) is used for calculating a percentage of exercise intensity, but beta blockade can cause reductions in maximal heart rate of between 20 and 30%. METHODS: Patients were split into a control group-10 men and 10 women, aged 50 (SD 12) and 46 (9) respectively, who had risk factors for cardiovascular disease but were not taking any drugs, and a treatment group-11 men and 11 women, aged 53 (13) and 55 (13) respectively, who were established on 25-100 mg of atenolol. All patients performed two submaximal tests on a cycle ergometer. Test 1 was an estimation test, during which the RPE was reported for each increment in work rate. Test 2 was an RPE production test, during which the patient regulated the work rate according to his/her perception of effort at four predetermined points on the RPE scale (RPE 9, 13, 15, 17). RESULTS: In both tests the individual correlations (r) between RPE, heart rate, and work rate ranged from 0.96 to 0.99. Analysis of variance showed no significant difference in maximal heart rate and maximal power output for the control group when predicted from the regression lines of RPE versus heart rate and RPE versus power output in the estimation test. However, the prediction of maximal power output was lower in the women in the control group and patients in the treatment group when this was predicted from the effort production protocol (P < 0.01). When exercise intensity at each RPE was expressed relative to maximal power output there were no differences between treatment and control groups. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study confirmed the strong positive relation between RPE, heart rate, and work rate in these patients in both passive effort estimation and

  12. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    PubMed

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  13. Elevated Serum PCT in Septic Shock With Endotoxemia Is Associated With a Higher Mortality Rate.

    PubMed

    Adamik, Barbara; Smiechowicz, Jakub; Jakubczyk, Dominika; Kübler, Andrzej

    2015-07-01

    To examine the effect of endotoxemia on the procalcitonin (PCT) serum levels and mortality rates of adult patients with septic shock diagnosed on the day of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU).A retrospective observational study was performed over a 2-year period. Levels of PCT were compared for septic shock patients with and without endotoxemia on admission to the ICU. Endotoxemia was identified with an Endotoxin Activity Assay.One hundred fifty-seven patients with septic shock were enrolled into the study. Group 1 consisted of patients with elevated endotoxin activity (EA) (n = 95, EA = 0.57 endotoxin activity unit [EAU] [0.46-0.67]) and Group 2 consisted of patients with low EA (n = 62, EA = 0.27 EAU [0.17-0.36]). Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and SOFA score were similar in both groups (APACHE II = 23 [16-29] and 19 [16-25]; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA] = 10 [7-13] and 11 [8-12] in Groups 1 and 2, respectively) (nonsignificant). The PCT level was 6 times higher in Group 1 than in Group 2 (19.6 ng/mL vs. 3.1 ng/mL, P < 0.001). There was a strong correlation between EA and serum PCT (P < 0.001, R = 0.5). The presence of endotoxemia on admission to the ICU was associated with an increased mortality rate: 52% in the group of patients with endotoxemia and 25% in the group without endotoxemia. EA in survivors was 0.39 EAU (0.26-0.57) and 0.53 EAU (0.4-0.61) in nonsurvivors (P = 0.004). The median PCT level in survivors was 6.7 ng/mL (2.3-28.0), compared with 16.7 ng/mL (5.3-31.0) in nonsurvivors (P = 0.04).This observational study revealed that endotoxemia in patients with septic shock on admission to the ICU was frequently found and was associated with an elevated PCT level and a high mortality rate. Endotoxemia was a common occurrence in patients with septic shock, regardless of the infecting microorganism.

  14. Relative in vitro growth rates of duckweeds (Lemnaceae) - the most rapidly growing higher plants.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, P; Adelmann, K; Zimmer, S; Schmidt, C; Appenroth, K-J

    2015-01-01

    Relative growth rates (RGR), doubling times (DT) and relative weekly yields (RY) of 39 clones (ecotypes) from 13 species representing all five genera of duckweeds were determined under standardised cultivation conditions. RGR ranged overall from 0.153 to 0.519 day(-1) , DT from 1.34 to 4.54 days and RY from 2.9 to 37.8 week(-1) . The RGR and RY data can be compared directly to other published findings to only a limited extent on account of missing clonal designations for and limited accessibility to previously investigated clones, as well as the use of different data denominators. However, they are consistent with the published results of other comparative duckweed studies of similar scope in showing that RGR does not vary primarily at the level of the genus or species, but rather reflects the adaptation of individual clones to specific local conditions. The RGR data support the widely held assumption that duckweeds can grow faster than other higher plants and that they can thus surpass land-based agricultural crops in productivity. Duckweeds are highly promising for the production of biomass for nutrition and energy, but extensive clonal comparison will be required to identify the most suitable isolates for this purpose.

  15. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-01-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation. PMID:27476717

  16. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-08-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation.

  17. A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity in women with pelvic floor disorders

    PubMed Central

    Kanter, Gregg; Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy; Thakar, Ranee

    2015-01-01

    Introduction and Hypothesis We evaluated the associations between pelvic floor muscle strength and tone with sexual activity and sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter study of women with pelvic floor disorders from the US and UK performed to validate the Pelvic Organ Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire, IUGA-Revised (PISQ-IR). Participants were surveyed about whether they were sexually active and completed the PISQ-IR and Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaires to assess sexual function. Physical exams included assessment of pelvic floor strength by the Oxford Grading Scale, and assessment of pelvic floor tone per ICS guidelines. Results The cohort of 585 women was middle aged (mean age 54.9 +/−12.1) with 395 (67.5%) reporting sexual activity. Women with a strong pelvic floor (n=275) were more likely to report sexual activity than women with weak strength (n=280) (75.3 vs. 61.8%, p<0.001), but normal or hypoactive pelvic floor tone was not associated with sexual activity (68.8 vs. 60.2%, normal vs. hypoactive, p=0.08). After multivariable analysis, a strong pelvic floor remained predictive of sexual activity (OR 1.89, CI 1.18–3.03, p<0.01). Among sexually active women (n=370), a strong pelvic floor was associated with higher scores on the PISQ-IR domain of condition impact (Parameter Estimate 0.20+/−0.09, P=0.04), and FSFI orgasm domain (PE 0.51+/−0.17, P=0.004). Conclusion A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity as well as higher sexual function scores on the condition impact domain of the PISQ-IR and orgasm domain of the FSFI. PMID:25994625

  18. Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

    1973-01-01

    A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.

  19. Predicting pregnancy rate following multiple embryo transfers using algorithms developed through static image analysis.

    PubMed

    Tian, Yun; Wang, Wei; Yin, Yabo; Wang, Weizhou; Duan, Fuqing; Zhao, Shifeng

    2017-02-16

    Single-embryo image assessment involves a high degree of inaccuracy because of the imprecise labelling of the transferred embryo images. In this study, we considered the entire transfer cycle to predict the implantation potential of embryos, and propose a novel algorithm based on a combination of local binary pattern texture feature and Adaboost classifiers to predict pregnancy rate. The first step of the proposed method was to extract the features of the embryo images using the local binary pattern operator. After this, multiple embryo images in a transfer cycle were considered as one entity, and the pregnancy rate was predicted using three classifiers: the Real Adaboost, Gentle Adaboost, and Modest Adaboost. Finally, the pregnancy rate was determined via the majority vote rule based on classification results of the three Adaboost classifiers. The proposed algorithm was verified to have a good predictive performance and may assist the embryologist and clinician to select embryos to transfer and in turn improve pregnancy rate.

  20. Heart Rate Change When Standing Up Might Predict Older Adult's Death Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Change When Standing Up Might Predict Older Adult's Death Risk People with slower heart rate recovery had ... they stand up might reveal their risk of death over the next several years, a new study ...

  1. Prediction of higher cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART) according to clinical complexity. A validated clinical index.

    PubMed

    Velasco, Cesar; Pérez, Inaki; Podzamczer, Daniel; Llibre, Josep Maria; Domingo, Pere; González-García, Juan; Puig, Inma; Ayala, Pilar; Martín, Mayte; Trilla, Antoni; Lázaro, Pablo; Gatell, Josep Maria

    2016-03-01

    The financing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is generally determined by the cost incurred in the previous year, the number of patients on treatment, and the evidence-based recommendations, but not the clinical characteristics of the population. To establish a score relating the cost of ART and patient clinical complexity in order to understand the costing differences between hospitals in the region that could be explained by the clinical complexity of their population. Retrospective analysis of patients receiving ART in a tertiary hospital between 2009 and 2011. Factors potentially associated with a higher cost of ART were assessed by bivariate and multivariate analysis. Two predictive models of "high-cost" were developed. The normalized estimated (adjusted for the complexity scores) costs were calculated and compared with the normalized real costs. In the Hospital Index, 631 (16.8%) of the 3758 patients receiving ART were responsible for a "high-cost" subgroup, defined as the highest 25% of spending on ART. Baseline variables that were significant predictors of high cost in the Clinic-B model in the multivariate analysis were: route of transmission of HIV, AIDS criteria, Spanish nationality, year of initiation of ART, CD4+ lymphocyte count nadir, and number of hospital admissions. The Clinic-B score ranged from 0 to 13, and the mean value (5.97) was lower than the overall mean value of the four hospitals (6.16). The clinical complexity of the HIV patient influences the cost of ART. The Clinic-B and Clinic-BF scores predicted patients with high cost of ART and could be used to compare and allocate costs corrected for the patient clinical complexity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  2. The utility of Thin Slice ratings for predicting language growth in children with autism spectrum disorder.

    PubMed

    Walton, Katherine M; Ingersoll, Brooke R

    2016-04-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5 min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and language gains over time. A total of 22 preschool-aged children with autism spectrum disorder participated in a battery of developmental assessments and a video-taped therapist-child interaction at Time 1. They then participated in follow-up testing of language skills and a second therapist-child interaction 6 months later (Time 2). Groups of approximately 25 naïve undergraduate students provided impression ratings ("Thin Slice ratings") about each child's skills and behaviors during 2-min segments taken from the therapist-child interaction videos at each time point. Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 were highly correlated with child scores on several developmental assessments at Time 1. In addition, Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 predicted gain in parent-reported expressive vocabulary over the course of 6 months, over and above the predictive utility of Time 1 vocabulary size. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the concurrent and predictive validity of Thin Slice ratings in young children with autism spectrum disorder.

  3. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Treesearch

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  4. Correction to "A general power equation for predicting bed load transport rates in gravel bed rivers"

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey J. Barry; John M. Buffington; John G. King

    2007-01-01

    In the paper "A general power equation for predicting bed load transport rates in gravel bed rivers" by Jeffrey J. Barry et al. (Water Resources Research, 40, W10401, doi:10.1029/2004WR003190, 2004), the y axis for Figures 5 and 10 was incorrectly labeled and should have read "log10 (predicted transport) - log10 (observed transport)." In addition,...

  5. NEUTRON GENERATOR FACILITY AT SFU: GEANT4 DOSE RATE PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Williams, J; Chester, A; Domingo, T; Rizwan, U; Starosta, K; Voss, P

    2016-11-01

    Detailed dose rate maps for a neutron generator facility at Simon Fraser University were produced via the GEANT4 Monte Carlo framework. Predicted neutron dose rates throughout the facility were compared with radiation survey measurements made during the facility commissioning process. When accounting for thermal neutrons, the prediction and measurement agree within a factor of 2 or better in most survey locations, and within 10 % inside the vault housing the neutron generator.

  6. Prediction of the dollar to the ruble rate. A system-theoretic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borodachev, Sergey M.

    2017-07-01

    Proposed a simple state-space model of dollar rate formation based on changes in oil prices and some mechanisms of money transfer between monetary and stock markets. Comparison of predictions by means of input-output model and state-space model is made. It concludes that with proper use of statistical data (Kalman filter) the second approach provides more adequate predictions of the dollar rate.

  7. Predicting self-rated mental and physical health: the contributions of subjective socioeconomic status and personal relative deprivation.

    PubMed

    Callan, Mitchell J; Kim, Hyunji; Matthews, William J

    2015-01-01

    Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) and higher personal relative deprivation (PRD) relate to poorer health. Both constructs concern people's perceived relative social position, but they differ in their emphasis on the reference groups people use to determine their comparative disadvantage (national population vs. similar others) and the importance of resentment that may arise from such adverse comparisons. We investigated the relative utility of SSS and PRD as predictors of self-rated physical and mental health (e.g., self-rated health, stress, health complaints). Across six studies, self-rated physical and mental health were on the whole better predicted by measures of PRD than by SSS while controlling for objective socioeconomic status (SES), with SSS rarely contributing unique variance over and above PRD and SES. Studies 4-6 discount the possibility that the superiority of PRD over SSS in predicting health is due to psychometric differences (e.g., reliability) or response biases between the measures.

  8. Atypical symptom cluster predicts a higher mortality in patients with first-time acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Seon Young; Ahn, Young Geun; Jeong, Myung Ho

    2012-01-01

    Identifying symptom clusters of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and their clinical significance may be useful in guiding treatment seeking behaviors and in planning treatment strategy. The aim of this study was to identify clusters of acute symptoms and their associated factors that manifested in patients with first-time AMI, and to compare clinical outcomes among cluster groups within 1-year of follow-up. A total of 391 AMI patients were interviewed individually using a structured questionnaire for acute and associated symptoms between March 2008 and June 2009 in Korea. Among 14 acute symptoms, three distinct clusters were identified by Latent Class Cluster Analysis: typical chest symptom (57.0%), multiple symptom (27.9%), and atypical symptom (15.1%) clusters. The cluster with atypical symptoms was characterized by the least chest pain (3.4%) and moderate frequencies (31-61%) of gastrointestinal symptoms, weakness or fatigue, and shortness of breath; they were more likely to be older, diabetic and to have worse clinical markers at hospital presentation compared with those with other clusters. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that, when age and gender were adjusted for, the atypical symptom cluster significantly predicted a higher risk of 1-year mortality compared to the typical chest pain cluster (hazard ratio 3.288, 95% confidence interval 1.087-9.943, p=0.035). Clusters of symptoms can be utilized in guiding a rapid identification of symptom patterns and in detecting higher risk patients. Intensive treatment should be considered for older and diabetic patients with atypical presentation.

  9. Introducing ab initio based neural networks for transition-rate prediction in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messina, Luca; Castin, Nicolas; Domain, Christophe; Olsson, Pär

    2017-02-01

    The quality of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations of microstructure evolution in alloys relies on the parametrization of point-defect migration rates, which are complex functions of the local chemical composition and can be calculated accurately with ab initio methods. However, constructing reliable models that ensure the best possible transfer of physical information from ab initio to KMC is a challenging task. This work presents an innovative approach, where the transition rates are predicted by artificial neural networks trained on a database of 2000 migration barriers, obtained with density functional theory (DFT) in place of interatomic potentials. The method is tested on copper precipitation in thermally aged iron alloys, by means of a hybrid atomistic-object KMC model. For the object part of the model, the stability and mobility properties of copper-vacancy clusters are analyzed by means of independent atomistic KMC simulations, driven by the same neural networks. The cluster diffusion coefficients and mean free paths are found to increase with size, confirming the dominant role of coarsening of medium- and large-sized clusters in the precipitation kinetics. The evolution under thermal aging is in better agreement with experiments with respect to a previous interatomic-potential model, especially concerning the experiment time scales. However, the model underestimates the solubility of copper in iron due to the excessively high solution energy predicted by the chosen DFT method. Nevertheless, this work proves the capability of neural networks to transfer complex ab initio physical properties to higher-scale models, and facilitates the extension to systems with increasing chemical complexity, setting the ground for reliable microstructure evolution simulations in a wide range of alloys and applications.

  10. Could sperm aneuploidy rate determination be used as a predictive test before intracytoplasmic sperm injection?

    PubMed

    Petit, François M; Frydman, Nelly; Benkhalifa, Moncef; Le Du, Anne; Aboura, Azzedine; Fanchin, Renato; Frydman, Rene; Tachdjian, Gerard

    2005-01-01

    Chromosome abnormalities in embryos are a major cause of implantation and development failures. Some couples with normal karyotypes have repeated implantation failures after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). In order to value patients at risk for genetic ICSI failures and the validity of sperm aneuploidy analysis, we have studied cytogenetic abnormalities in sperm from ICSI patients. Twenty-nine patients with normal karyotypes were included. Ten patients had at least 4 ICSI treatments without pregnancy (group A). Nine patients had a pregnancy after 1 to 3 ICSI treatments (group B). Ten fertile men with normal semen parameters were studied as controls (group C). Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) was used for sperm nucleus cytogenetic analysis using chromosomes 8, 9, 13, 18, 21, X, and Y specific probes. Aneuploidy for each chromosome and diploidy rates were significantly higher in group A than in group B and in group B than in group C (P < .05). Considering each patient in groups A and B, aneuploidy rate for each chromosome was too variable to be considered as a significant test. We proposed analysis of the total sperm aneuploidy. Chromosomal sperm nuclei profile could be used as a predictive biological test before ICSI in order to improve genetic counseling for oligoasthenoteratozoospermia patients.

  11. Blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems and some Fujita-type theorems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Hongjing; Xing, Ruixiang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we derive blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems. Our proof is by contradiction and uses a scaling argument. This procedure reduces the problems of blow-up rate to Fujita-type theorems. In addition, we also give some new Fujita-type theorems for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems with the time variable on . These results are not restricted to positive solutions.

  12. Application of Artificial Neural Network in Predicting the Survival Rate of Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Biglarian, A; Hajizadeh, E; Kazemnejad, A; Zali, MR

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to predict the survival rate of Iranian gastric cancer patients using the Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network models as well as comparing the ability of these approaches in predicting the survival of these patients. Methods: In this historical cohort study, the data gathered from 436 registered gastric cancer patients who have had surgery between 2002 and 2007 at the Taleghani Hospital (a referral center for gastrointestinal cancers), Tehran, Iran, to predict the survival time using Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network techniques. Results: The estimated one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year and five-year survival rates of the patients were 77.9%, 53.1%, 40.8%, 32.0%, and 17.4%, respectively. The Cox regression analysis revealed that the age at diagnosis, high-risk behaviors, extent of wall penetration, distant metastasis and tumor stage were significantly associated with the survival rate of the patients. The true prediction of neural network was 83.1%, and for Cox regression model, 75.0%. Conclusion: The present study shows that neural network model is a more powerful statistical tool in predicting the survival rate of the gastric cancer patients compared to Cox proportional hazard regression model. Therefore, this model recommended for the predicting the survival rate of these patients. PMID:23113076

  13. Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-05-01

    Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

  14. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    PubMed

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals.

  15. Prediction of Chemical Vapor Deposition Rates on Monofilaments and Its Implications for Fiber Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, S. A.; Kuczmarski, M.; Veitch, L. C.

    1992-01-01

    Deposition rates are predicted in a cylindrical upflow reactor designed for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on monofilaments. Deposition of silicon from silane in a hydrogen carrier gas is chosen as a relevant example. The effects of gas and surface chemistry are studied in a two-dimensional axisymmetric flow field for this chemically well-studied system. Model predictions are compared to experimental CVD rate measurements. The differences in some physical and chemical phenomena between such small diameter (about 150 microns) fiber substrates and other typical CVD substrates are highlighted. The influence of the Soret mass transport mechanism is determined to be extraordinarily significant. The difficulties associated with the accurate measurement and control of the fiber temperature are discussed. Model prediction sensitivities are investigated with respect to fiber temperatures, fiber radii, Soret transport, and chemical kinetic parameters. The implications of the predicted instantaneous rates are discussed relative to the desired fiber properties for both the batch and the continuous processes.

  16. Predicting Ratings of Counselor Trainee Empathy with Self-Report Anxiety Measures and Skin Conductance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, James T.; Giesen, J. Martin

    1982-01-01

    Investigated the degree of relationship between clients' and judges' ratings of counselor trainee (N=29) empathy and self-report anxiety and skin conductance measures. Results indicated the usefulness of anxiety measures to predict counselor empathy is predicated on the criterion for rating counselor empathy. (RC)

  17. Predicting Ratings of Counselor Trainee Empathy with Self-Report Anxiety Measures and Skin Conductance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, James T.; Giesen, J. Martin

    1982-01-01

    Investigated the degree of relationship between clients' and judges' ratings of counselor trainee (N=29) empathy and self-report anxiety and skin conductance measures. Results indicated the usefulness of anxiety measures to predict counselor empathy is predicated on the criterion for rating counselor empathy. (RC)

  18. Comparing the Contribution of Teacher versus Tutor Ratings of Inattentive Behavior in Predicting Mathematics Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the relative contribution of teacher and tutor ratings of inattentive behavior in two different instructional settings in predicting students' performance on fraction concepts and whole-number calculations. Classroom teachers rated each student's attentive behavior in a whole-class setting and tutors rated…

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Corrosion Rate Prediction Models Utilized for Reinforced Concrete Affected by Chloride

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.

  20. Contribution of Teacher Ratings of Behavioral Characteristics to the Prediction of Divergent Thinking and Problem Solving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houtz, John C.; Shaning, Dennis J.

    1982-01-01

    Predicted divergent thinking and problem-solving performance of elementary school students from teachers' ratings of students' affective/behavioral characteristics, and from intelligence test scores. Found teachers' ratings of sensitivity to beauty, risk taking, awareness of impulses, and humor were the most frequent significant predictors in…

  1. Comparing the Contribution of Teacher versus Tutor Ratings of Inattentive Behavior in Predicting Mathematics Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the relative contribution of teacher and tutor ratings of inattentive behavior in two different instructional settings in predicting students' performance on fraction concepts and whole-number calculations. Classroom teachers rated each student's attentive behavior in a whole-class setting and tutors rated…

  2. Do Astronauts Havbe a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions Than a Cohort of Working Professionals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Young, M.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Tarver, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated [1], but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  3. Accuracy of predicted resting metabolic rate and relationship between resting metabolic rate and cardiorespiratory fitness in obese men

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Do Kyung

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study is to examine that not only the relationship of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and cardiorespiratory fitness(VO2peak), but also the comparison between measured and predicted results of RMR in obese men. [Methods] 60 obese men (body fat>32%) were recruited for this study. They did not participate in regular exercising programs at least 6 months. The RMR was measured with indirect calorimetry and predicted RMR using Herris-Benedicte equation. The cardiorespiratory fitness was determined by directly measuring the oxygen consumption (VO2peak) during the exercise on the treadmill. [Results] The significance for the difference between the measured results and predicted result of RMR were tested by paired t-test. Correlation of measured date was obtained by Pearson correlation coefficient. The value of predicted RMR and measured RMR were significantly different in these obese subjects. (p < 0.001). The difference between RMR cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiorespiratory fitness showed significant correlation (r=0.67, p < 0.05). [Conclusion] The current formulas of predicted RMR have limited the evaluation of measured RMR for Korean obese men. Therefore, this study suggests that new formula should be designed for Korean in order to obtain more accurate results in obese. PMID:25566436

  4. Accuracy of predicted resting metabolic rate and relationship between resting metabolic rate and cardiorespiratory fitness in obese men.

    PubMed

    Kim, Do Kyung

    2014-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine that not only the relationship of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and cardiorespiratory fitness(VO2peak), but also the comparison between measured and predicted results of RMR in obese men. 60 obese men (body fat>32%) were recruited for this study. They did not participate in regular exercising programs at least 6 months. The RMR was measured with indirect calorimetry and predicted RMR using Herris-Benedicte equation. The cardiorespiratory fitness was determined by directly measuring the oxygen consumption (VO2peak) during the exercise on the treadmill. The significance for the difference between the measured results and predicted result of RMR were tested by paired t-test. Correlation of measured date was obtained by Pearson correlation coefficient. The value of predicted RMR and measured RMR were significantly different in these obese subjects. (p < 0.001). The difference between RMR cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiorespiratory fitness showed significant correlation (r=0.67, p < 0.05). The current formulas of predicted RMR have limited the evaluation of measured RMR for Korean obese men. Therefore, this study suggests that new formula should be designed for Korean in order to obtain more accurate results in obese.

  5. Do Astronauts have a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions than a Cohort of Working Professionals?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, Mitzi S.; Murray, Jocelyn D.; Young, Millenia; Wear, Mary L.; Tarver, W. J.; Van Baalen, Mary

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. NASA has implemented several occupational health initiatives during the past 20 years to decrease the number and severity of injuries, but the individual success rate is unknown. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated, but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. The purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  6. Composition-based effective chain length for prediction of protein folding rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Le; Wang, Jun; Wang, Wei

    2010-11-01

    Folding rate prediction is a useful way to find the key factors affecting folding kinetics of proteins. Structural information is more or less required in the present prediction methods, which limits the application of these methods to various proteins. In this work, an “effective length” is defined solely based on the composition of a protein, namely, the number of specific types of amino acids in a protein. A physical theory based on a minimalist model is employed to describe the relation between the folding rates and the effective length of proteins. Based on the resultant relationship between folding rates and effective length, the optimal sets of amino acids are found through the enumeration over all possible combinations of amino acids. This optimal set achieves a high correlation (with the coefficient of 0.84) between the folding rates and the optimal effective length. The features of these amino acids are consistent with our model and landscape theory. Further comparisons between our effective length and other factors are carried out. The effective length is physically consistent with structure-based prediction methods and has the best predictability for folding rates. These results all suggest that both entropy and energetics contribute importantly to folding kinetics. The ability to accurately and efficiently predict folding rates from composition enables the analysis of the kinetics for various kinds of proteins. The underlying physics in our method may be helpful to stimulate further understanding on the effects of various amino acids in folding dynamics.

  7. Prediction of change in protein unfolding rates upon point mutations in two state proteins.

    PubMed

    Chaudhary, Priyashree; Naganathan, Athi N; Gromiha, M Michael

    2016-09-01

    Studies on protein unfolding rates are limited and challenging due to the complexity of unfolding mechanism and the larger dynamic range of the experimental data. Though attempts have been made to predict unfolding rates using protein sequence-structure information there is no available method for predicting the unfolding rates of proteins upon specific point mutations. In this work, we have systematically analyzed a set of 790 single mutants and developed a robust method for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutations (Δlnku) in two-state proteins by combining amino acid properties and knowledge-based classification of mutants with multiple linear regression technique. We obtain a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.79/s and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.71 between predicted unfolding rates and experimental observations using jack-knife test. We have developed a web server for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutation and it is freely available at https://www.iitm.ac.in/bioinfo/proteinunfolding/unfoldingrace.html. Prominent features that determine unfolding kinetics as well as plausible reasons for the observed outliers are also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1980-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat 'unconventional' aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method is able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  9. A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.

    1982-01-01

    A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat "unconventional" aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method was able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.

  10. Factors Affecting Student Loan Default Rates: Nevada System of Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kypuros, Christopher Anthony

    2009-01-01

    Nevada's rate of default on college loans is among the highest in the nation. At the time of this study, there were no research studies on defaulters in the state of Nevada. The present study was designed for initial exploration regarding the relationship between various kinds of student factors and default rates from institutions at the Nevada…

  11. Factors Affecting Student Loan Default Rates: Nevada System of Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kypuros, Christopher Anthony

    2009-01-01

    Nevada's rate of default on college loans is among the highest in the nation. At the time of this study, there were no research studies on defaulters in the state of Nevada. The present study was designed for initial exploration regarding the relationship between various kinds of student factors and default rates from institutions at the Nevada…

  12. Improved prediction of ovulation time may increase pregnancy rates to artificial insemination in lactating dairy cattle.

    PubMed

    Hockey, C D; Morton, J M; Norman, S T; McGowan, M R

    2010-12-01

    A prospective observational study was conducted in two Australian dairy herds to assess the potential for improving pregnancy rates (proportions of inseminations that result in pregnancy) to artificial insemination (AI) if the time of ovulation could be predicted with more certainty. Herd 1 calved year-round and inseminations were performed during two periods each day. Herd 2 calved during autumn-winter and inseminations were performed only after the morning milking each day. In both herds, the AI to ovulation interval of enrolled cows was determined by trans-rectal ovarian ultrasonography approximately 0, 12, 24 and 36 h after AI, and pregnancy was assessed by palpation per rectum 35-56 days after AI. Also, in Herd 1 vaginal electrical resistance (VER) measurements were taken at approximately 0, 12, 24 and 36 h after AI, and in Herd 2 cows were fitted with neck mounted activity meters that monitored cow activity count in 2-h periods. There was substantial variation in the intervals from AI to ovulation within and between herds (mean ± SD 21.2 ± 10.7, n = 102; 14.7 ± 10.4, n = 100 in herds 1 and 2, respectively). Pregnancy rates were higher for inseminations close to, but preceding, ovulation. Using combined herd data (n = 202), the highest pregnancy rate (50.8%) was observed for inseminations between 0 and 16 h before ovulation, a period in which only a modest proportion of inseminations (31.2%) occurred. In contrast, pregnancy rate was significantly lower (28.7%; risk ratio 0.6; 95% CI 0.4-1.0; p = 0.039) for inseminations between 16 and 32 h before ovulation, a period where the highest proportion of inseminations (53.2%) occurred. Thus pregnancy rates could potentially be improved if a greater proportion of inseminations were conducted shortly before ovulation. In Herd 1, mean VER during the peri-ovulatory period varied with time from ovulation. Lowest values (mean ± SEM, VER = 64.8 ± 1.2, n = 55) occurred

  13. Do maternal ratings of appetite in infants predict later Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire scores and body mass index?

    PubMed

    Parkinson, Kathryn N; Drewett, Robert F; Le Couteur, Ann S; Adamson, Ashley J

    2010-02-01

    In a longitudinal birth cohort maternal ratings of children's appetite made at 6 weeks, 12 months and 5-6 years were correlated with one another and with subscales from the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ) at 5-6 years, and body mass index (BMI) at 6-8 years. Statistically significant correlations were found between the children's appetite ratings. Appetite ratings in infancy were also correlated with the CEBQ subscale scores at 5-6 years to a limited extent, but not with the BMI at 6-8 years. The appetite rating at 5-6 years and three of the CEBQ subscales were independently associated with BMI. Children with higher levels of Emotional Over-Eating and Desire to Drink had higher BMIs, and children with higher levels of Satiety Responsiveness had lower BMIs. These results provide further evidence that there are concurrent associations between appetite ratings in childhood and BMI but suggest that appetite ratings in infancy are related only weakly to later appetite measures and do not predict later BMI.

  14. Effect of heart rate correction on pre- and post-exercise heart rate variability to predict risk of mortality-an experimental study on the FINCAVAS cohort.

    PubMed

    Pradhapan, Paruthi; Tarvainen, Mika P; Nieminen, Tuomo; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Lehtimäki, Terho; Kähönen, Mika; Viik, Jari

    2014-01-01

    The non-linear inverse relationship between RR-intervals and heart rate (HR) contributes significantly to the heart rate variability (HRV) parameters and their performance in mortality prediction. To determine the level of influence HR exerts over HRV parameters' prognostic power, we studied the predictive performance for different HR levels by applying eight correction procedures, multiplying or dividing HRV parameters by the mean RR-interval (RRavg) to the power 0.5-16. Data collected from 1288 patients in The Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS), who satisfied the inclusion criteria, was used for the analyses. HRV parameters (RMSSD, VLF Power and LF Power) were calculated from 2-min segment in the rest phase before exercise and 2-min recovery period immediately after peak exercise. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to determine the predictive performance for each parameter with and without HR corrections in rest and recovery phases. The division of HRV parameters by segment's RRavg to the power 2 (HRVDIV-2) showed the highest predictive performance under the rest phase (RMSSD: 0.67/0.66; VLF Power: 0.70/0.62; LF Power: 0.79/0.65; cardiac mortality/non-cardiac mortality) with minimum correlation to HR (r = -0.15 to 0.15). In the recovery phase, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis revealed good risk stratification capacity at HRVDIV-2 in both groups (cardiac and non-cardiac mortality). Although higher powers of correction (HRVDIV-4and HRVDIV-8) improved predictive performance during recovery, they induced an increased positive correlation to HR. Thus, we inferred that predictive capacity of HRV during rest and recovery is augmented when its dependence on HR is weakened by applying appropriate correction procedures.

  15. The Use of Confidential Instructor Ratings for the Prediction of Success in Naval Undergraduate Pilot Training,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Previous investigations have reported significant relationships between confidential instructor ratings in early primary phase and later success in...findings do not guarantee that confidential ratings would augment the validities derived from the combined array of selection and early training variables...which are used in the current student pilot prediction system. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether such confidential ratings

  16. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Sannino, G; Melillo, P; Stranges, S; De Pietro, G; Pecchia, L

    2015-01-01

    Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (± 4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing.

  17. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  18. The "killing zone" revisited: serial nonlinearities predict general aviation accident rates from pilot total flight hours.

    PubMed

    Knecht, William R

    2013-11-01

    Is there a "killing zone" (Craig, 2001)-a range of pilot flight time over which general aviation (GA) pilots are at greatest risk? More broadly, can we predict accident rates, given a pilot's total flight hours (TFH)? These questions interest pilots, aviation policy makers, insurance underwriters, and researchers alike. Most GA research studies implicitly assume that accident rates are linearly related to TFH, but that relation may actually be multiply nonlinear. This work explores the ability of serial nonlinear modeling functions to predict GA accident rates from noisy rate data binned by TFH. Two sets of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)/Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data were log-transformed, then curve-fit to a gamma-pdf-based function. Despite high rate-noise, this produced weighted goodness-of-fit (Rw(2)) estimates of .654 and .775 for non-instrument-rated (non-IR) and instrument-rated pilots (IR) respectively. Serial-nonlinear models could be useful to directly predict GA accident rates from TFH, and as an independent variable or covariate to control for flight risk during data analysis. Applied to FAA data, these models imply that the "killing zone" may be broader than imagined. Relatively high risk for an individual pilot may extend well beyond the 2000-h mark before leveling off to a baseline rate. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    PubMed Central

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E.; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a ‘critical rate of environmental change’ beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even ‘mild’ rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested. PMID:23209174

  20. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    PubMed

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E

    2013-01-19

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental change' beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even 'mild' rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested.

  1. Real value prediction of protein folding rate change upon point mutation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Liang-Tsung; Gromiha, M. Michael

    2012-03-01

    Prediction of protein folding rate change upon amino acid substitution is an important and challenging problem in protein folding kinetics and design. In this work, we have analyzed the relationship between amino acid properties and folding rate change upon mutation. Our analysis showed that the correlation is not significant with any of the studied properties in a dataset of 476 mutants. Further, we have classified the mutants based on their locations in different secondary structures and solvent accessibility. For each category, we have selected a specific combination of amino acid properties using genetic algorithm and developed a prediction scheme based on quadratic regression models for predicting the folding rate change upon mutation. Our results showed a 10-fold cross validation correlation of 0.72 between experimental and predicted change in protein folding rates. The correlation is 0.73, 0.65 and 0.79, respectively in strand, helix and coil segments. The method has been further tested with an extended dataset of 621 mutants and a blind dataset of 62 mutants, and we observed a good agreement with experiments. We have developed a web server for predicting the folding rate change upon mutation and it is available at http://bioinformatics.myweb.hinet.net/fora.htm.

  2. Lower vitamin D levels are associated with higher systemic lupus erythematosus activity, but not predictive of disease flare-up

    PubMed Central

    Schoindre, Yoland; Jallouli, Moez; Tanguy, Marie-Laure; Ghillani, Pascale; Galicier, Lionel; Aumaître, Olivier; Francès, Camille; Le Guern, Véronique; Lioté, Frédéric; Smail, Amar; Limal, Nicolas; Perard, Laurent; Desmurs-Clavel, Hélène; Thi Huong, Du Le; Asli, Bouchra; Kahn, Jean-Emmanuel; Sailler, Laurent; Ackermann, Félix; Papo, Thomas; Sacré, Karim; Fain, Olivier; Stirnemann, Jérôme; Cacoub, Patrice; Leroux, Gaëlle; Cohen-Bittan, Judith; Hulot, Jean-Sébastien; Lechat, Philippe; Musset, Lucile; Piette, Jean-Charles; Amoura, Zahir; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Growing evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in the pathogenesis and progression of autoimmune diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Recent studies have found an association between lower serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and higher SLE activity. We studied the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score, and we assessed for the first time the role of vitamin D in predicting SLE flare-ups. Methods Serum 25(OH)D levels were measured in 170 patients with SLE who were prospectively followed up for 6 months (Plaquenil LUpus Systemic study, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00413361). Results The mean SLEDAI score was 2.03±2.43 and 12.3% patients had active disease (SLEDAI ≥6). The mean 25(OH)D level was 20.6±9.8 ng/mL. Deficiency (25(OH)D <10 ng/mL) was observed in 27 (15.9%), insufficiency (10≤25(OH)D<30) in 112 (65.9%) and optimal vitamin D status (25(OH)D≥30) in 31 (18.2%) patients. In multivariate analysis, female gender (p=0.018), absence of defined antiphospholipid syndrome (p=0.002) and higher creatinine clearance (p=0.004) were predictive of lower 25(OH)D levels. In multivariate analysis, lower 25(OH)D levels were associated with high SLE activity (p=0.02). Relapse-free survival rate was not statistically different according to the vitamin D status during the 6-month follow-up (p=0.22). Conclusions We found a low vitamin D status in the majority of patients with SLE, and a modest association between lower 25(OH)D levels and high disease activity. There was no association between baseline 25(OH)D levels and relapse-free survival rate. PMID:25379192

  3. Measured maximal heart rates compared to commonly used age-based prediction equations in the Heritage Family Study.

    PubMed

    Sarzynski, M A; Rankinen, T; Earnest, C P; Leon, A S; Rao, D C; Skinner, J S; Bouchard, C

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how well two commonly used age-based prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax ) estimate the actual HRmax measured in Black and White adults from the HERITAGE Family Study. A total of 762 sedentary subjects (39% Black, 57% Females) from HERITAGE were included. HRmax was measured during maximal exercise tests using cycle ergometers. Age-based HRmax was predicted using the Fox (220-age) and Tanaka (208 - 0.7 × age) formulas. The standard error of estimate (SEE) of predicted HRmax was 12.4 and 11.4 bpm for the Fox and Tanaka formulas, respectively, indicating a wide-spread of measured-HRmax values are compared to their age-predicted values. The SEE (shown as Fox/Tanaka) was higher in Blacks (14.4/13.1 bpm) and Males (12.6/11.7 bpm) compared to Whites (11.0/10.2 bpm) and Females (12.3/11.2 bpm) for both formulas. The SEE was higher in subjects above the BMI median (12.8/11.9 bpm) and below the fitness median (13.4/12.4 bpm) when compared to those below the BMI median (12.2/11.0 bpm) and above the fitness median (11.4/10.3) for both formulas. Our findings show that based on the SEE, the prevailing age-based estimated HRmax equations do not precisely predict an individual's measured-HRmax . Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

    2011-01-01

    A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed…

  5. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  6. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  7. Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

    2011-01-01

    A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed…

  8. Predicting 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid Ester Transformation Rates in Periphyton-Dominated Ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, David L.; Kollig, Heinz P.; Hall, Tom L.

    1983-01-01

    Using batch cultures, we determined transformation rate coefficients for microbial transformation of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid butoxyethyl ester (2,4-DBE) in periphyton-dominated ecosystems. Rates of 2,4-DBE loss were measured over short periods of time (usually less than 10 h), and first-order transformation rate coefficients (k1) were determined under the specific conditions of low 2,4-DBE concentrations and no growth. Values for k1 were divided by total plate counts and by biomass measured as ash-free dry weight to give second-order rate coefficients (kb and kAFDW, respectively) for use in predictive models. Using periphyton attached to Teflon strips, we also determined second-order rate coefficients based on the ratio of colonized surface area to container volume (kA). Mean second-order rate coefficients were used to predict 2,4-DBE transformation rates in microcosms having diverse chemical and biological environments. The observed transformation rates among the microcosms were most accurately predicted by using kA. PMID:16346336

  9. Immigrant suicide rates as a function of ethnophaulisms: hate speech predicts death.

    PubMed

    Mullen, Brian; Smyth, Joshua M

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine whether suicide rates among ethnic immigrant groups were predicted by the ethnophaulisms, or the hate speech, used to refer to those ethnic immigrant groups. Data were obtained for 10 European ethnic immigrant groups during the 1950s. These 10 European ethnic immigrant groups accounted for approximately 40% of all immigration into the United States during this time period. Both the suicide rates for these ethnic immigrant groups in the United States and suicide rates for those ethnic immigrant groups in their countries of origin were derived. The complexity and valence of ethnophaulisms used to refer to these ethnic immigrant groups were derived from the historical record of hate speech in the United States. Consistent with previous research, immigrant suicide rates were strongly correlated with origin suicide rates. As expected, the suicide rates for ethnic immigrant groups in the United States were significantly predicted by the negativity of the ethnophaulisms used to refer to those ethnic immigrant groups. This pattern was obtained even after taking into account the suicide rates for those ethnic immigrant groups in their countries of origin, and even after taking into account the size of those ethnic immigrant groups. This study found support for the expectation that suicide rates among ethnic immigrant groups would be predicted by the hate speech directed toward those ethnic immigrant groups.

  10. The utility of kindergarten teacher ratings for predicting low academic achievement in first grade.

    PubMed

    Teisl, J T; Mazzocco, M M; Myers, G F

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of kindergarten teachers' ratings of pupils for later first-grade academic achievement. Kindergarten students were rated by their teachers on a variety of variables, including math and reading performance, teacher concerns, and amount of learning relative to peers. These variables were then analyzed with respect to outcome measures for math and reading ability administered in the first grade. The teachers' ratings of academic performance were significantly correlated with scores on the outcome measures. Analyses were also carried out to determine sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the different teacher ratings. The results indicated high overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the ratings. Positive predictive value tended to be lower. A recommendation to follow from these results is that teacher ratings of this sort be used to determine which children should receive cognitive screening measures to further enhance identification of children at risk for learning disability. However, this recommendation is limited by the lack of empirically supported screening measures for math disability versus well-supported screening tools for reading disability.

  11. A simple algorithm for predicting proton SEU rates in space compared to the rates measured on the CRRES satellite

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, R.A.; McNulty, P.J.; Beauvais, W.J.; Abdel-Kader, W.G. . Dept. of Physics and Astronomy); Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Barth, J.C.L. )

    1994-12-01

    A new simulation code, the Clemson Omnidirectional Spallation Model for Interaction in Circuits (COSMIC), is described and its predictions agree with SEU data from four devices flown as part of the microelectronics package experiment on the CRRES satellite. The code uses CUPID for determining the energy depositions in the sensitive volumes; it allows proton exposures with arbitrary angles of incidence including random omnidirectional exposure; and the user specifies the thickness of shielding on six sides of the sensitive volume. COSMIC is used as part of an algorithm developed to predict the rate proton induced single event upsets occur in the space radiation environment given by AP-8. In testing the algorithm, the position coordinates are taken from the satellite's ephemeris data, but calculations based on position coordinates from orbital codes were also in agreement with the measured values.

  12. Higher rate of tissue regeneration in polyploid asexual versus diploid sexual freshwater snails.

    PubMed

    Krois, Nicole R; Cherukuri, Anvesh; Puttagunta, Nikhil; Neiman, Maurine

    2013-08-23

    Characterizing phenotypic differences between sexual and asexual organisms is a critical step towards understanding why sexual reproduction is so common. Because asexuals are often polyploid, understanding how ploidy influences phenotype is directly relevant to the study of sex and will provide key insights into the evolution of ploidy-level variation. The well-established association between genome size and cell cycle duration, evidence for a link between genome size and tissue regeneration rate and the growing body of research showing that ploidy influences growth rate and gene expression led us to hypothesize that healing and tissue regeneration might be affected by ploidy-level variation. We evaluated this hypothesis by measuring the rate of regeneration of antenna tissue of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand snail characterized by frequent coexistence between diploid sexuals and polyploid asexuals. Antennae of triploid and presumptive tetraploid asexuals regenerated more rapidly than the antennae of diploid sexuals, but regeneration rate did not differ between triploids and tetraploids. These results suggest either that ploidy elevation has nonlinear positive effects on tissue regeneration and/or that factors associated directly with reproductive mode affect regeneration rate more than ploidy level. The results of this study also indicate that the lower ploidy of sexual P. antipodarum is unlikely to confer advantages associated with more rapid regeneration.

  13. Higher speciation and lower extinction rates influence mammal diversity gradients in Asia.

    PubMed

    Tamma, Krishnapriya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2015-02-04

    Little is known about the patterns and correlates of mammal diversity gradients in Asia. In this study, we examine patterns of species distributions and phylogenetic diversity in Asia and investigate if the observed diversity patterns are associated with differences in diversification rates between the tropical and non-tropical regions. We used species distribution maps and phylogenetic trees to generate species and phylogenetic diversity measures for 1° × 1° cells across mainland Asia. We constructed lineage-through-time plots and estimated diversification shift-times to examine the temporal patterns of diversifications across orders. Finally, we tested if the observed gradients in Asia could be associated with geographical differences in diversification rates across the tropical and non-tropical biomes. We estimated speciation, extinction and dispersal rates across these two regions for mammals, both globally and for Asian mammals. Our results demonstrate strong latitudinal and longitudinal gradients of species and phylogenetic diversity with Southeast Asia and the Himalayas showing highest diversity. Importantly, our results demonstrate that differences in diversification (speciation, extinction and dispersal) rates between the tropical and the non-tropical biomes influence the observed diversity gradients globally and in Asia. For the first time, we demonstrate that Asian tropics act as both cradles and museums of mammalian diversity. Temporal and spatial variation in diversification rates across different lineages of mammals is an important correlate of species diversity gradients observed in Asia.

  14. Emotionally excited eyeblink-rate variability predicts an experience of transportation into the narrative world

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Ryota; Hino, Kojun; Shimazu, Makoto; Liang, Yingzong; Okada, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 years, SD = 13.18 years, range 18–63 years) were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1) in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2) in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor and Purpura, 1997). The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed SD) of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members. PMID:26029123

  15. Reducing Error Rates for Iris Image using higher Contrast in Normalization process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aminu Ghali, Abdulrahman; Jamel, Sapiee; Abubakar Pindar, Zahraddeen; Hasssan Disina, Abdulkadir; Mat Daris, Mustafa

    2017-08-01

    Iris recognition system is the most secured, and faster means of identification and authentication. However, iris recognition system suffers a setback from blurring, low contrast and illumination due to low quality image which compromises the accuracy of the system. The acceptance or rejection rates of verified user depend solely on the quality of the image. In many cases, iris recognition system with low image contrast could falsely accept or reject user. Therefore this paper adopts Histogram Equalization Technique to address the problem of False Rejection Rate (FRR) and False Acceptance Rate (FAR) by enhancing the contrast of the iris image. A histogram equalization technique enhances the image quality and neutralizes the low contrast of the image at normalization stage. The experimental result shows that Histogram Equalization Technique has reduced FRR and FAR compared to the existing techniques.

  16. Development of Theoretical Methods for Predicting Solvent Effects on Reaction Rates in Supercritical Water Oxidation Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Tucker, manuscript in preparation. “Examination of Nonequilibrium Solvent Effects on an SN2 Reaction in Supercritical Water,” R. Behera, B...DATES COVERED Final: 7/1/99 - 12/31/02 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Development of theoretical methods for predicting solvent effects on reactions ...computational methods for predicting how reaction rate constants will vary with thermodynamic condition in supercritical water (SCW). Towards this

  17. Development of a group contribution method to predict aqueous phase hydroxyl radical (HO*) reaction rate constants.

    PubMed

    Minakata, Daisuke; Li, Ke; Westerhoff, Paul; Crittenden, John

    2009-08-15

    The hydroxyl radical (HO*) is a strong oxidant that reacts with electron-rich sites of organic compounds and initiates complex chain mechanisms. In order to help understand the reaction mechanisms, a rule-based model was previously developed to predict the reaction pathways. For a kinetic model, there is a need to develop a rate constant estimator that predicts the rate constants for a variety of organic compounds. In this study, a group contribution method (GCM) is developed to predict the aqueous phase HO* rate constants for the following reaction mechanisms: (1) H-atom abstraction, (2) HO* addition to alkenes, (3) HO* addition to aromatic compounds, and (4) HO* interaction with sulfur (S)-, nitrogen (N)-, or phosphorus (P)-atom-containing compounds. The GCM hypothesizes that an observed experimental rate constant for a given organic compound is the combined rate of all elementary reactions involving HO*, which can be estimated using the Arrhenius activation energy, E(a), and temperature. Each E(a) for those elementary reactions can be comprised of two parts: (1) a base part that includes a reactive bond in each reaction mechanism and (2) contributions from its neighboring functional groups. The GCM includes 66 group rate constants and 80 group contribution factors, which characterize each HO* reaction mechanism with steric effects of the chemical structure groups and impacts of the neighboring functional groups, respectively. Literature-reported experimental HO* rate constants for 310 and 124 compounds were used for calibration and prediction, respectively. The genetic algorithms were used to determine the group rate constants and group contribution factors. The group contribution factors for H-atom abstraction and HO* addition to the aromatic compounds were found to linearly correlate with the Taft constants, sigma*, and electrophilic substituent parameters, sigma+, respectively. The best calibrations for 83% (257 rate constants) and predictions for 62% (77

  18. Value of higher-resolution MRI in assessing middle cerebral atherosclerosis and predicting capsular warning syndrome.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xin; Wei, Yafen; Zhang, Xiandong; Yang, Lili; Cui, Zhitang; Yan, Junjie

    2016-11-01

    To investigate the correlation between middle cerebral atherosclerosis and capsular warning syndrome (CWS) and assess the value of higher-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in prognostication. In all, 97 transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients who underwent an MRI from February 2010 to December 2013 were included in the retrospective study and divided into either a CWS or middle cerebral artery (MCA) TIA group according to their eventual clinical diagnosis. 3T MRI included fast-spin echo T2 -weighted imaging, double-inverse recovery T1 -weighted imaging, and T1 contrast-enhanced scan sequences. Baseline characteristics, MRI results in terms of MCA plaque formation, plaque characteristics such as enhancement, and development of infarction were compared between the two groups to study the distribution and characteristics of cerebral atherosclerotic plaques. Multivariate analysis identified factors associated with infarction 1 week after plaque identification. Based on the MR images, 76% of both groups of patients had middle cerebral atherosclerosis. Compared to TIA patients, the median age of CWS patients was younger (58 [range 42-73] vs. 67 [36-84] years, P = 0.003), and CWS patients had a lower rate of stroke history (10.9% vs. 41.2%, P = 0.001). Infarction was more common in CWS patients than in TIA patients (52.2% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.003) and a superior plaque was correlated with infarction occurrence (odds ratio 5.674, 95% confidence interval 1.112-28.958). Patients with CWS have large arterial plaques, including MCA plaques. There was a correlation between CWS and the MCA plaque location. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2016;44:1277-1283. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  19. Septic patients with mitochondrial DNA haplogroup JT have higher respiratory complex IV activity and survival rate.

    PubMed

    Lorente, Leonardo; Martín, María M; López-Gallardo, Ester; Ferreres, José; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Jiménez, Alejandro; Montoya, Julio; Ruiz-Pesini, Eduardo

    2016-06-01

    The influence of mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) haplogroup or oxidative phosphorylation system (OXPHOS) function on survival of septic patients has been scarcely studied. However, the association between mtDNA haplogroup, OXPHOS capacity at diagnosis of severe sepsis, and survival has been not previously reported, and that was the objective of the present study. This was a prospective, multicenter, observational study. Blood samples from 198 patients at diagnosis of severe sepsis were analyzed to determine mtDNA haplogroup and platelet respiratory complex IV (CIV) specific activity. The end point of the study was 30-day survival. Septic patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher 30-day survival than those with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT (31/38 [81.6%] vs 99/160 [61.9%]; P= .02). Septic patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher platelet CIV specific activity than those with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT (P= .002). The main novel finding of our study, including the largest series providing data on platelet CIV specific activity according to mtDNA haplogroup in severe septic patients, was that those with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher survival and higher platelet CIV specific activity at diagnosis of severe sepsis than patients with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Student Evaluation Response Rates of Teacher Performance in Higher Education Online Classes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paquette, Kelli R.; Corbett, Frank, Jr.; Casses, Melissa

    2015-01-01

    The number of students taking at least 1 online course has surpassed 7.1 million and represents 33% (21.3 million) of all higher education students (Allen & Seaman, 2013). With the growing number of online courses, credibility may be questioned. Are there effective evaluation processes in place? This article will describe the results of a…

  1. Examining Life Goals and School Attendance Rates of Afghan Students Receiving Higher Education in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bek, Hafiz

    2016-01-01

    This research is a descriptive study carried out to examine the relations between life goals and school attendance levels among Afghan students receiving higher education in Turkey. In total there were 198 Afghan students that participated in the study. Among which 159 were male and 39 female. All of these students were studying in 16 Turkish…

  2. Prediction of heart rate and oxygen uptake during incremental and maximal exercise in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Fairbarn, M S; Blackie, S P; McElvaney, N G; Wiggs, B R; Paré, P D; Pardy, R L

    1994-05-01

    Measurement of heart rate and oxygen uptake during incremental exercise and at maximal exercise is useful in evaluating mechanisms responsible for exercise limitation in patients with cardiopulmonary disease. Presently used prediction equations are based on relatively small groups of subjects in whom there was an uneven distribution of subjects with regard to age and sex or based on equations that were from extrapolated data. Our prediction equations are based on data from 231 men and women equally divided within decades between 20 and 80 years. Patients exercised to a symptom-limited maximum on a cycle ergometer while measurements of heart rate and oxygen uptake were recorded. The relationship between heart rate and oxygen uptake throughout exercise (HR:VO2) was determined using a statistical technique that included each data point from each subject. The HR:VO2 throughout incremental exercise was best described by separate equations for women younger than 50 years and older than 50 years and for men younger than 70 years and older than 70 years. Prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax) and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) were developed by linear regression and were selected from all possible combinations of parameters. The HRmax was most accurately predicted by age alone for both sexes. Unlike the HR:VO2 relationship, the slope of the line relating heart rate to age was not different for the older women compared with the younger women so that a single equation was derived to predict HRmax. A single equation for the men was also sufficient since the slope of heart rate to age was the same for all ages. To most accurately predict VO2max, a separate equation was required for both the women and men that included age, height, and weight.

  3. Alexithymia and fear of pain independently predict heat pain intensity ratings among undergraduate university students.

    PubMed

    Katz, Joel; Martin, Andrea L; Pagé, M Gabrielle; Calleri, Vincent

    2009-01-01

    Alexithymia is a disturbance in awareness and cognitive processing of affect that is associated with over-reporting of physical symptoms, including pain. The relationship between alexithymia and other psychological constructs that are often associated with pain has yet to be evaluated. The present study examined the importance of alexithymia in the pain experience in relation to other integral psychological components of Turk's diathesis-stress model of chronic pain and disability, including fear of pain, anxiety sensitivity, pain avoidance and pain catastrophizing. Heat pain stimuli, using a magnitude estimation procedure, and five questionnaires (Anxiety Sensitivity Index, Fear of Pain Questionnaire III, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, avoidance subscale of the Pain Anxiety Symptoms Scale-20 and Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20) were administered to 67 undergraduate students (44 women) with a mean (+/- SD) age of 20.39+/-3.77 years. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that sex, fear of pain and alexithymia were the only significant predictors of average heat pain intensity (F[6, 60]=5.43; R2=0.35; P=0.008), accounting for 6.8%, 20.0% and 9.6% of unique variance, respectively. Moreover, the difficulty identifying feelings and difficulty describing feelings subscales, but not the externally oriented thinking subscale of the Toronto Alexithymia Scale-20 significantly predicted average heat pain intensity. Individuals with higher levels of alexithymia or increased fear of pain reported higher average pain intensity ratings. The relationship between alexithymia and pain intensity was unrelated to other psychological constructs usually associated with pain. These findings suggest that difficulties with emotion regulation, either through reduced emotional awareness via alexithymia or heightened emotional awareness via fear of pain, may negatively impact the pain experience.

  4. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  5. Gas chromatographic retention index as a basis for predicting evaporation rates of complex mixtures.

    PubMed

    Mcllroy, John W; Jones, A Daniel; McGuffin, Victoria L

    2014-12-10

    Models that predict the fate of petroleum fuels in the environment are often required for effective remediation of fuel-contaminated sites. In this research, an environmental fuel spill was simulated by means of a diesel/water microcosm, in which the temporal changes in composition were assessed during evaporation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). First-order kinetic rate constants were calculated for 51 selected compounds and utilized to develop predictive models for evaporation rate constants, using GC retention indices on a nonpolar stationary phase. Models were initially developed to predict rates of evaporation of compounds from individual classes (normal alkane, branched alkane, alkyl benzene, and polycyclic hydrocarbon) and then expanded to include all compounds (comprehensive model). Using the comprehensive model, the rate constants were predicted with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of 10%, whereas the class-specific models resulted in less error (4-8%). These models were employed to predict the fraction remaining of the total fuel (6% error) as well as the fraction remaining of individual compounds (13% MAPE). Accurate models such as these will facilitate remediation of environmental releases of petroleum products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Community College Responses to Calls for Higher Completion Rates: The Cases of Three Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smock, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to understand how three diverse community colleges are interpreting and acting on federal initiatives to increase completion rates. The study attempted to answer four main research questions: (1) How do a selection of Kansas community colleges, as organizations, interpret the initiative to increase completion…

  7. Update on Graduation Rate Reporting: Issues and Opportunities. Policy Matters: A Higher Education Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Alene

    2009-01-01

    Since the passage of the federal Student Right-to-Know Act of 1990 (SRTK), graduation rates have been a subject of much debate and controversy. Why all the fuss? The simple truth is that graduation from college does matter, and it matters more than ever. From the societal perspective, the United States is falling behind other nations in the…

  8. Update on Graduation Rate Reporting: Issues and Opportunities. Policy Matters: A Higher Education Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Alene

    2009-01-01

    Since the passage of the federal Student Right-to-Know Act of 1990 (SRTK), graduation rates have been a subject of much debate and controversy. Why all the fuss? The simple truth is that graduation from college does matter, and it matters more than ever. From the societal perspective, the United States is falling behind other nations in the…

  9. Forecasting Student Entrants, Flows and Success Rates. Technical Report. Studies in Institutional Management in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Stjepan; And Others

    This document is concerned with an information system to study the internal dynamics of student flows, choice of subjects and success rates, taking into account different regional affiliations and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students. Among the external factors to be considered will be the demographic dimension in terms of changes in the…

  10. Community College Responses to Calls for Higher Completion Rates: The Cases of Three Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smock, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to understand how three diverse community colleges are interpreting and acting on federal initiatives to increase completion rates. The study attempted to answer four main research questions: (1) How do a selection of Kansas community colleges, as organizations, interpret the initiative to increase completion…

  11. The Comparative Rating Scale Model: Occupational Program Evaluation in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rorie, Charles D.

    A comparative evaluation methodology for vocational-technical education programs offered at public community colleges in Texas is described in this study. Evaluation concepts, design and methodology for comparative evaluation, trial of the comparative rating scale model, and feedback loop with recommendations for revision are presented. The…

  12. Choosing a Higher Education Study Abroad Destination: What Mainland Chinese Parents and Students Rate as Important

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodycott, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Mainland China is one of the largest sources of undergraduate and postgraduate students. Previous research has identified the push-pull factors and features that influence a student choice of study abroad destination. This article extends understanding by identifying and examining what 251 mainland Chinese parents and 100 students rated as most…

  13. Systematic and Systemic Approaches to Reducing Attrition Rates in Online Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chyung, Seung Youn

    2001-01-01

    Discusses an online distance education program at Boise State University that used Keller's ARCS model, Kaufman's Organizational Elements Model, and Kirkpatrick's evaluation model to improve motivational appeal for the adult learners and reduce the attrition rate. Describes the interventions implemented and presents results of evaluations that…

  14. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    During the last two decades, median instructional spending per full-time equivalent (FTE) student at American 4-year colleges and universities has grown at a slower rate than median spending per FTE student in a number of other expenditure categories, including academic support, student services and research. Our paper uses institutional level…

  15. Exercise heart rate gradient: a novel index to predict all-cause mortality.

    PubMed

    Duarte, Carlos Vieira; Myers, Jonathan; de Araújo, Claudio Gil Soares

    2015-05-01

    Although substantial evidence relates reduced exercise heart rate (HR) reserve and recovery to a higher risk of all-cause mortality, a combined indicator of these variables has not been explored. Our aim was to combine HR reserve and recovery into a single index and to assess its utility to predict all-cause mortality. Retrospective cohort analysis. Participants were 1476 subjects (937 males) aged between 41 and 79 years who completed a maximal cycle cardiopulmonary exercise test while not using medication with negative chronotropic effects or having an implantable cardiac pacemaker. HR reserve (HR maximum - HR resting) and recovery (HR maximum - HR at 1-min post exercise) were calculated and divided into quintiles. Quintile rankings were summed yielding an exercise HR gradient (EHRG) ranging from 2 to 10, reflecting the magnitude of on- and off-HR transients to exercise. Survival analyses were undertaken using EHRG scores and HR reserve and recovery in the lowest quintiles (Q1). During a mean follow up of 7.3 years, 44 participants died (3.1%). There was an inverse trend for EHRG scores and death rate (p < 0.05) that increased from 1.2% to 13.5%, respectively, for scores 10 and 2. An EHRG score of 2 was a better predictor of all-cause mortality than either Q1 for HR reserve (<80 bpm) or HR recovery alone (<27 bpm): age-adjusted hazard ratios: 3.53 (p = 0.011), 2.52 (p < 0.05), and 2.57 (p < 0.05), respectively. EHRG, a novel index combining HR reserve and HR recovery, is a better indicator of mortality risk than either response alone. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  16. Quasi-static magnetic measurements to predict specific absorption rates in magnetic fluid hyperthermia experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coral, D. F.; Mendoza Zélis, P.; de Sousa, M. E.; Muraca, D.; Lassalle, V.; Nicolás, P.; Ferreira, M. L.; Fernández van Raap, M. B.

    2014-01-01

    In this work, the issue on whether dynamic magnetic properties of polydispersed magnetic colloids modeled using physical magnitudes derived from quasi-static magnetic measurement can be extrapolated to analyze specific absorption rate data acquired at high amplitudes and frequencies of excitation fields is addressed. To this end, we have analyzed two colloids of magnetite nanoparticles coated with oleic acid and chitosan in water displaying, under a radiofrequency field, high and low specific heat power release. Both colloids are alike in terms of liquid carrier, surfactant and magnetic phase composition but differ on the nanoparticle structuring. The colloid displaying low specific dissipation consists of spaced magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 4.8 nm inside a large chitosan particle of 52.5 nm. The one displaying high specific dissipation consists of clusters of magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 9.7 nm inside a chitosan particle of 48.6 nm. The experimental evaluation of Néel and Brown relaxation times (˜10-10 s and 10-4 s, respectively) indicate that the nanoparticles in both colloids magnetically relax by Néel mechanism. The isothermal magnetization curves analysis for this mechanism show that the magnetic nanoparticles behave in the interacting superparamagnetic regime. The specific absorption rates were determined calorimetrically at 260 kHz and up to 52 kA/m and were well modeled within linear response theory using the anisotropy density energy retrieved from quasi-static magnetic measurement, validating their use to predict heating ability of a given polydispersed particle suspension. Our findings provide new insight in the validity of quasi-static magnetic characterization to analyze the high frequency behavior of polydispersed colloids within the framework of the linear response and Wohlfarth theories and indicate that dipolar interactions play a key role being their strength larger for the colloid displaying higher dissipation, i

  17. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading

    PubMed Central

    Wlotko, Edward W.; Federmeier, Kara D.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items (‘They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.’). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 ms or 250 ms that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 ms SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs. TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 ms SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 ms SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 ms SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 ms SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 ms SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  18. [Fertility rate and the prediction of future population size in Shaanxi province].

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei-hua; Fan, Xiao-jing; Liu, Ru-ru; Dang, Shao-nong

    2013-06-01

    To analyze the fertility rate and to estimate the future population size of Shaanxi province, based on data from the sixth national population census. Fertility rate curve was used to analyze the fertility model and the abbreviated life table. The actual fertility rate was used as the main way to predict the future population size. General fertility rate was analyzed by factor analysis approach. The total fertility rate of Shaanxi province was 1.05 in 2010 while age-specific fertility rate contributed 101.27% to the general fertility rate. The expected population sizes would be 38 122 474 in 2015, 38 432 931 in 2020 and 38 121 904 in 2025 respectively. Birthrate would become lower and the population size appearing a negative increase in the year 2020, in Shaanxi province.

  19. Higher Adenoma Detection Rates with Endocuff-Assisted Colonoscopy – A Randomized Controlled Multicenter Trial

    PubMed Central

    Fitzlaff, Rüdiger; Röming, Hermann; Ameis, Detlev; Heinecke, Achim; Kunsch, Steffen; Ellenrieder, Volker; Ströbel, Philipp; Schepke, Michael; Meister, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The Endocuff is a device mounted on the tip of the colonoscope to help flatten the colonic folds during withdrawal. This study aimed to compare the adenoma detection rates between Endocuff-assisted (EC) colonoscopy and standard colonoscopy (SC). Methods This randomized prospective multicenter trial was conducted at four academic endoscopy units in Germany. Participants: 500 patients (235 males, median age 64[IQR 54–73]) for colon adenoma detection purposes were included in the study. All patients were either allocated to EC or SC. The primary outcome measure was the determination of the adenoma detection rates (ADR). Results The ADR significantly increased with the use of the Endocuff compared to standard colonoscopy (35.4%[95% confidence interval{CI} 29–41%] vs. 20.7%[95%CI 15–26%], p<0.0001). Significantly more sessile polyps were detected by EC. Overall procedure time and withdrawal time did not differ. Caecal and ileum intubation rates were similar. No major adverse events occurred in both groups. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95%[CI] 1.01–1.05), male sex (OR 1.74; 95%CI 1.10–2.73), withdrawal time (OR 1.16; 95%CI 1.05–1.30), procedure time (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.04–1.10), colon cleanliness (OR 0.60; 95%CI 0.39–0.94) and use of Endocuff (OR 2.09; 95%CI 1.34–3.27) were independent predictors of adenoma detection rates. Conclusions EC increases the adenoma detection rate by 14.7%(95%CI 6.9–22.5%). EC is safe, effective, easy to handle and might reduce colorectal interval carcinomas. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02034929. PMID:25470133

  20. Revisiting ventilatory and cardiovascular predictions of whole-body metabolic rate.

    PubMed

    Notley, Sean R; Fullagar, Hugh H K; Lee, Daniel S; Matsuda-Nakamura, Mayumi; Peoples, Gregory E; Taylor, Nigel A S

    2014-02-01

    The influence of variations in exercise mode, thermal state, and load carriage on cardiac and ventilatory predictors of metabolic rate were investigated. Fifteen males were studied at rest and during whole-, upper-, and lower-body exercise (unloaded and loaded) under thermoneutral and hot conditions. Ventilatory predictions were superior in thermoneutral (residual mean square error range: 0.04 to 0.17 L·min(-1) vs 0.21 to 0.36 L·min(-1)) and hot conditions (0.03 to 0.07 L·min(-1) vs 0.21 to 0.24 L·min(-1)). Predictions derived from whole- or lower-body exercise, and unloaded or loaded exercise could be interchanged without significant error. Nevertheless, a mode-specific prediction was required for upper-body work, and mild hyperthermia significantly reduced the precision of cardiac predictions. Ventilatory predictions were more precise, but errors from heart-rate predictions could be minimized by using thermal-state and exercise mode-specific predictions.

  1. A model for predicting crack growth rate for mixed mode fracture under biaxial loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shliannikov, V. N.; Braude, N. Z.

    1992-09-01

    A model for predicting the crack growth rate of an initially angled crack under biaxial loads of arbitrary direction is suggested. The model is based on a combination of both the Manson-Coffin equation for low cycle fatigue and the Paris equation for fatigue crack propagation. The model takes into consideration the change in material plastic properties in the region around the crack tip due to the stress state, together with the initial orientation of the crack and also its trajectory of growth. Predictions of crack growth rate for any mixed mode fracture is based on the results of uniaxial tension experiments.

  2. Higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt correlate with younger age but not orthostatic symptoms.

    PubMed

    Ives, Colleen T; Kimpinski, Kurt

    2013-08-15

    Reports have shown that younger individuals present with higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt (HUT). However, a correlation between the degree of heart rate increment and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance has not been determined. The objective of this study was to determine whether higher postural heart rate increments during HUT correlate with symptoms of orthostatic intolerance in healthy subjects. Postural heart rate increment on HUT did not differ between men and women (P = 0.48) but did show a significant decrease by age group (P < 0.0001). There was a significant negative correlation between heart rate increment on HUT and age [r = -0.63 (-0.73, -0.51), r(2) = 0.400; P < 0.0001]. There was a significant difference with respect to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance by sex (P = 0.03) but not age (P = 0.58). There was no significant correlation between either symptoms of orthostatic intolerance and age [r = -0.13 (-0.31, 0.06), r(2) = 0.017; P = 0.17] or heart rate increment on HUT and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance [r = 0.15 (-0.04, 0.33), r(2) = 0.022; P = 0.13]. The results demonstrate that higher postural heart rate increments in younger individuals do not result in an increase in orthostatic intolerance. This highlights the potential need for a reevaluation of the diagnostic criteria for postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome in younger individuals.

  3. Prediction of Eventual Suicide in Psychiatric Inpatients by Clinical Ratings of Hopelessness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Aaron T.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Used 9-point clinical rating scale to assess severity of hopelessness in 141 patients hospitalized with suicide ideation. Followed patients from 5 to 10 years; 10 eventually committed suicide. Mean hopelessness rating for patients committing suicide was significantly higher than that for patients not committing suicide. Cutoff score of 6 or above…

  4. Women With Early Menopause Have Higher Rates of Target Lesion Revascularization After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Zhijian; Liu, Xiaoli; Zhou, Zhiming; Zhao, Yingxin; Shi, Dongmei; Liu, Yuyang; Liang, Jing; Yang, Lixia; Chai, Meng; Zhou, Yujie

    2016-04-01

    Early menopause has been found to be associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to investigate the impact of early menopause on clinical outcomes for women undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We observed female patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing PCI and found that women with early menopause (≤46 years old) were more likely to have CAD risk factors and more severe coronary lesions. During the 18-month follow-up, early menopause was associated with similar risk of death and myocardial infarction but higher risk of target lesion revascularization (TLR; 7.8% vs 5.3%, P = .003) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; 11.3% vs 9.0%, P = .007). After adjustment, early menopause was an independent risk factor for 18-month MACEs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.00) and TLR (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.21-2.13). In conclusion, for women undergoing PCI, early menopause is associated with higher risk of MACE, which is mainly driven by risk of TLR. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Performance analysis of MIMO-STBC systems with higher coding rate using adaptive semiblind channel estimation scheme.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Ravi; Saxena, Rajiv

    2014-01-01

    Semiblind channel estimation method provides the best trade-off in terms of bandwidth overhead, computational complexity and latency. The result after using multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems shows higher data rate and longer transmit range without any requirement for additional bandwidth or transmit power. This paper presents the detailed analysis of diversity coding techniques using MIMO antenna systems. Different space time block codes (STBCs) schemes have been explored and analyzed with the proposed higher code rate. STBCs with higher code rates have been simulated for different modulation schemes using MATLAB environment and the simulated results have been compared in the semiblind environment which shows the improvement even in highly correlated antenna arrays and is found very close to the condition when channel state information (CSI) is known to the channel.

  6. Performance Analysis of MIMO-STBC Systems with Higher Coding Rate Using Adaptive Semiblind Channel Estimation Scheme

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ravi

    2014-01-01

    Semiblind channel estimation method provides the best trade-off in terms of bandwidth overhead, computational complexity and latency. The result after using multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems shows higher data rate and longer transmit range without any requirement for additional bandwidth or transmit power. This paper presents the detailed analysis of diversity coding techniques using MIMO antenna systems. Different space time block codes (STBCs) schemes have been explored and analyzed with the proposed higher code rate. STBCs with higher code rates have been simulated for different modulation schemes using MATLAB environment and the simulated results have been compared in the semiblind environment which shows the improvement even in highly correlated antenna arrays and is found very close to the condition when channel state information (CSI) is known to the channel. PMID:24688379

  7. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  8. Personality Measures Link Slower Binocular Rivalry Switch Rates to Higher Levels of Self-Discipline

    PubMed Central

    Antinori, Anna; Smillie, Luke D.; Carter, Olivia L.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we investigated the relation between personality and the rate of perceptual alternations during binocular rivalry. Studies have demonstrated that slower rivalry alternations are associated with a range of clinical conditions. It is less clear whether rivalry dynamics similarly co-vary with individual differences in psychological traits seen across non-clinical population. We assessed rivalry rates in a non-clinical population (n = 149) and found slower rivalry alternations were positively related r(149) = 0.20, p = 0.01 to industriousness, a trait characterized by a high level of self-discipline using the Big Five Aspect Scales (BFAS). Switch rates were also negatively related r(149) = −0.20, p = 0.01 to cognitive disorganization, a schizotypy trait capturing schizophrenia-like symptoms of disorganization using the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of feelings and Experiences (O-LIFE). Furthermore, we showed that that these relations with personality were unaffected by the inclusion or exclusion of mixed percept in the response analysis. Together these results are relevant to theoretical models of rivalry investigating individual differences in rivalry temporal dynamics and they may reduce concerns about the impact of task compliance in clinical research using rivalry as a potential diagnostic tool. PMID:28105021

  9. A novel twelve class fluctuation test reveals higher than expected mutation rates for influenza A viruses

    PubMed Central

    Pauly, Matthew D; Procario, Megan C; Lauring, Adam S

    2017-01-01

    Influenza virus’ low replicative fidelity contributes to its capacity for rapid evolution. Clonal sequencing and fluctuation tests have suggested that the influenza virus mutation rate is 2.7 × 10–6 - 3.0 × 10–5 substitutions per nucleotide per strand copied (s/n/r). However, sequencing assays are biased toward mutations with minimal fitness impacts and fluctuation tests typically investigate only a subset of all possible single nucleotide mutations. We developed a fluctuation test based on reversion to fluorescence in a set of virally encoded mutant green fluorescent proteins, which allowed us to measure the rates of selectively neutral mutations representative of the twelve different mutation types. We measured an overall mutation rate of 1.8 × 10–4 s/n/r for PR8 (H1N1) and 2.5 × 10–4 s/n/r for Hong Kong 2014 (H3N2) and a transitional bias of 2.7–3.6. Our data suggest that each replicated genome will have an average of 2–3 mutations and highlight the importance of mutational load in influenza virus evolution. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.26437.001 PMID:28598328

  10. Personality Measures Link Slower Binocular Rivalry Switch Rates to Higher Levels of Self-Discipline.

    PubMed

    Antinori, Anna; Smillie, Luke D; Carter, Olivia L

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we investigated the relation between personality and the rate of perceptual alternations during binocular rivalry. Studies have demonstrated that slower rivalry alternations are associated with a range of clinical conditions. It is less clear whether rivalry dynamics similarly co-vary with individual differences in psychological traits seen across non-clinical population. We assessed rivalry rates in a non-clinical population (n = 149) and found slower rivalry alternations were positively related r(149) = 0.20, p = 0.01 to industriousness, a trait characterized by a high level of self-discipline using the Big Five Aspect Scales (BFAS). Switch rates were also negatively related r(149) = -0.20, p = 0.01 to cognitive disorganization, a schizotypy trait capturing schizophrenia-like symptoms of disorganization using the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of feelings and Experiences (O-LIFE). Furthermore, we showed that that these relations with personality were unaffected by the inclusion or exclusion of mixed percept in the response analysis. Together these results are relevant to theoretical models of rivalry investigating individual differences in rivalry temporal dynamics and they may reduce concerns about the impact of task compliance in clinical research using rivalry as a potential diagnostic tool.

  11. Higher on-admission serum triglycerides predict less severe disability and lower all-cause mortality after acute ischemic stroke.

    PubMed

    Pikija, Slaven; Trkulja, Vladimir; Juvan, Lucija; Ivanec, Marija; Dukši, Dunja

    2013-10-01

    High(er) on-admission triglyceride (TG) levels have been suggested as an independent predictor of better outcomes of the acute ischemic stroke. Data regarding poststroke physical disabilities have been contradictory. We aimed to investigate the relationship between fasting on-admission TG and development of disability and all-cause mortality over a 2.5-year period. This prospective observational study included 83 acute ischemic stroke patients (29 cardioembolic; 41% men; median age 76 years) followed-up for 28 to 30 months and assessed for physical disability using the Modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 1 week and 3, 12, and 24 months poststroke. TGs were considered as a continuous and a binary variable (≤ 1.27 [n = 43] and >1.27 mmol/L [n = 43]). Higher TGs (continuous or binary) were independently (default adjustments: stroke type, severity at presentation, age, atrial fibrillation, preindex event antiplatelet use, infarct volume, postindex event antiplatelet, statin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor use, on-admission fasting cholesterol, mean platelet volume, and glomerular filtration rate) were associated with: (1) higher odds of mRS 0 to 2 (none/mild disability) across the assessments (overall odds ratio [OR] 2.73 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.15-6.38] and OR 3.57 [95% CI 1.04-12.3], respectively); (2) lower odds of mRS worsening between any 2 consecutive assessments (overall OR 0.44 [95% CI 0.20-0.96] and OR 0.35 [95% CI 0.16-0.77], respectively); (3) lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.47 [95% CI 0.23-0.96] and hazard ratio 0.45 [95% CI 0.21-0.98], respectively). These data suggest that higher fasting TGs on-admission predict less severe disability, reduced disability progression, and all-cause mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Traffic accident reconstruction and an approach for prediction of fault rates using artificial neural networks: A case study in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Can Yilmaz, Ali; Aci, Cigdem; Aydin, Kadir

    2016-08-17

    Currently, in Turkey, fault rates in traffic accidents are determined according to the initiative of accident experts (no speed analyses of vehicles just considering accident type) and there are no specific quantitative instructions on fault rates related to procession of accidents which just represents the type of collision (side impact, head to head, rear end, etc.) in No. 2918 Turkish Highway Traffic Act (THTA 1983). The aim of this study is to introduce a scientific and systematic approach for determination of fault rates in most frequent property damage-only (PDO) traffic accidents in Turkey. In this study, data (police reports, skid marks, deformation, crush depth, etc.) collected from the most frequent and controversial accident types (4 sample vehicle-vehicle scenarios) that consist of PDO were inserted into a reconstruction software called vCrash. Sample real-world scenarios were simulated on the software to generate different vehicle deformations that also correspond to energy-equivalent speed data just before the crash. These values were used to train a multilayer feedforward artificial neural network (MFANN), function fitting neural network (FITNET, a specialized version of MFANN), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) models within 10-fold cross-validation to predict fault rates without using software. The performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models was evaluated using mean square error (MSE) and multiple correlation coefficient (R). It was shown that the MFANN model performed better for predicting fault rates (i.e., lower MSE and higher R) than FITNET and GRNN models for accident scenarios 1, 2, and 3, whereas FITNET performed the best for scenario 4. The FITNET model showed the second best results for prediction for the first 3 scenarios. Because there is no training phase in GRNN, the GRNN model produced results much faster than MFANN and FITNET models. However, the GRNN model had the worst prediction results. The

  13. Description and prediction of resting metabolic rate after stroke and traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Frankenfield, David C; Ashcraft, Christine M

    2012-09-01

    To compare the effect of stroke on the metabolic rate compared with the effect of traumatic brain injury and to determine whether the metabolic rate is predictable in both types of brain injury. Indirect calorimetry was conducted prospectively in mechanically ventilated patients within the first 6 d of admission to a critical care unit owing to ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, isolated traumatic brain injury, or traumatic brain injury with collateral injuries. Clinical data were collected simultaneously and a predicted value of the resting metabolic rate was calculated using the Penn State equation (using body size, body temperature, and minute ventilation). One hundred thirty patients were measured. Ischemic stroke showed a lower incidence of fever, a lower body temperature, and a lower resting metabolic rate than the other groups; whereas in hemorrhagic stroke, these variables were similar to the trauma groups. Sedation decreased the resting metabolic rate, but this effect seemed particular to the trauma patients. The Penn State equation predicted the resting metabolic rate accurately 72% of the time, and when its component variables of body temperature and minute ventilation were controlled in an analysis of variance, all the differences among the brain injury and sedation groups were eliminated. Stroke is a hypermetabolic event most of the time. Body size, temperature, and minute ventilation explain most of the variation in the resting metabolic rate after traumatic and non-traumatic brain injuries. The Penn State equation therefore predicts the resting metabolic rate in brain-injured patients no matter the mechanism of injury. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty in Super-obese Patients: Dramatically Higher Postoperative Complication Rates Even Compared to Revision Surgery.

    PubMed

    Werner, Brian C; Evans, Cody L; Carothers, Joshua T; Browne, James A

    2015-05-01

    This study utilized a national database to evaluate 90 day postoperative complication rates after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in super obese (BMI > 50 kg/m(2)) patients (n = 7666) compared to non-obese patients (n = 1,212,793), obese patients (n = 291,914), morbidly obese patients (n = 169,308) and revision TKA patients (n = 28,812). Super obese patients had significantly higher rates of local and systemic complications compared to all other BMI groups as well as those undergoing revision TKA with higher rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE), infection, and medical complications. Super obesity is associated with dramatically increased rates of postoperative complications after TKA compared to non-obese, obese, and morbidly obese patients as well as those undergoing revision TKA.

  15. Comparison of higher order spectra in heart rate signals during two techniques of meditation: Chi and Kundalini meditation.

    PubMed

    Goshvarpour, Ateke; Goshvarpour, Atefeh

    2013-02-01

    The human heartbeat is one of the important examples of complex physiologic fluctuations. For the first time in this study higher order spectra of heart rate signals during meditation have explored. Specifically, the aim of this study was to analysis and compares the contribution of quadratic phase coupling of human heart rate variability during two forms of meditation: (1) Chinese Chi (or Qigong) meditation and (2) Kundalini Yoga meditation. For this purpose, Bispectrum was estimated by using biased, parametric and the direct (FFT) method. The results show that the mean Bispectrum magnitude of heart rate signals increased during Kundalini Yoga meditation, but it decreased significantly during Chi meditation. However, in both meditation techniques phase-coupled harmonics are shifted to the higher frequencies during meditation. In addition, it has shown that not only there are significant differences between rest and meditation states, but also heart rate patterns appear to be influenced by different types of meditation.

  16. Predicting the Effects of Coastal Hypoxia on Vital Rates of the Planktonic Copepod Acartia tonsa Dana

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, David T.; Pierson, James J.; Roman, Michael R.

    2013-01-01

    We describe a model predicting the effects of low environmental oxygen on vital rates (egg production, somatic growth, and mortality) of the coastal planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa. Hypoxic conditions can result in respiration rate being directly limited by oxygen availability. We hypothesized that A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion rates would all respond in a similar manner to low oxygen conditions, as a result of oxygen dependent changes in respiration rate. Rate data for A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion under low environmental oxygen were compiled from the literature and from supplementary experiments. The response of these rates to oxygen was compared by converting all to the analogous units in terms of oxygen utilization, which we termed analogous respiration rate. These analogous respiration rates, along with published measurements of respiration rates, were used to parameterize and evaluate the relationship between A. tonsa respiration rate and environmental oxygen. At 18°C, our results suggest that A. tonsa experiences sub-lethal effects of hypoxia below an oxygen partial pressure of 8.1 kPa (∼3.1 mg L−1 = 2.3 mL L−1). The results of this study can be used to predict the effects of hypoxia on A. tonsa growth and mortality as related to environmental temperature and oxygen partial pressure. Such predictions will be useful as a way to incorporate the effects of coastal hypoxia into population, community, or ecosystem level models that include A. tonsa. This approach can also be used to characterize the effects of hypoxia on other aquatic organisms. PMID:23691134

  17. Postoperative neuromuscular blocker use is associated with higher primary fascial closure rates after damage control laparotomy.

    PubMed

    Abouassaly, Chadi T; Dutton, William D; Zaydfudim, Victor; Dossett, Lesly A; Nunez, Timothy C; Fleming, Sloan B; Cotton, Bryan A

    2010-09-01

    Failure to achieve fascial primary closure after damage control laparotomy (DCL) is associated with increased morbidity, higher healthcare expenditures, and a reduction in quality of life. The use of neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBA) to facilitate closure remains controversial and poorly studied. The purpose of this study was to determine whether exposure to NMBA is associated a higher likelihood of primary fascial closure. All adult trauma patients admitted between January 2002 and May 2008 who (1) went directly to the operating room, (2) were managed initially by DCL, and (3) survived to undergo a second laparotomy. Study group (NMBA+): those receiving NMBA in the first 24 hours after DCL. Comparison group (NMBA-): those not receiving NMBA in the first 24 hours after DCL. Primary fascial closure defined as fascia-to-fascia approximation by hospital day 7. One hundred ninety-one patients met inclusion (92 in NMBA+ group, 99 in NMBA- group). Although the NMB+ patients were younger (31 years vs. 37 years, p = 0.009), there were no other differences in demographics, severity of injury, or lengths of stay between the groups. However, NMBA+ patients achieved primary closure faster (5.1 days vs. 3.5 days, p = 0.046) and were more likely to achieve closure by day 7 (93% vs. 83%, p = 0.023). After controlling for age, gender, race, mechanism, and severity of injury, logistic regression identified NMBA use as an independent predictor of achieving primary fascial closure by day 7 (OR, 3.24, CI: 1.15-9.16; p = 0.026). Early NMBA use is associated with faster and more frequent achievement of primary fascial closure in patients initially managed with DCL. Patients exposed to NMBA had a three times higher likelihood of achieving primary fascial closure by hospital day 7.

  18. Defining the players in higher-order networks: predictive modeling for reverse engineering functional influence networks.

    PubMed

    McDermott, Jason E; Archuleta, Michelle; Stevens, Susan L; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P; Sanfilippo, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Determining biological network dependencies that can help predict the behavior of a system given prior observations from high-throughput data is a very valuable but difficult task, especially in the light of the ever-increasing volume of experimental data. Such an endeavor can be greatly enhanced by considering regulatory influences on co-expressed groups of genes representing functional modules, thus constraining the number of parameters in the system. This allows development of network models that are predictive of system dynamics. We first develop a predictive network model of the transcriptomics of whole blood from a mouse model of neuroprotection in ischemic stroke, and show that it can accurately predict system behavior under novel conditions. We then use a network topology approach to expand the set of regulators considered and show that addition of topological bottlenecks improves the performance of the predictive model. Finally, we explore how improvements in definition of functional modules may be achieved through an integration of inferred network relationships and functional relationships defined using Gene Ontology similarity. We show that appropriate integration of these two types of relationships can result in models with improved performance.

  19. Introduction of a prediction model to assigning periodontal prognosis based on survival rates.

    PubMed

    Martinez-Canut, Pedro; Alcaraz, Jaime; Alcaraz, Jaime; Alvarez-Novoa, Pablo; Alvarez-Novoa, Carmen; Marcos, Ana; Noguerol, Blas; Noguerol, Fernando; Zabalegui, Ion

    2017-09-04

    To develop a prediction model for tooth loss due to periodontal disease (TLPD) in patients following periodontal maintenance (PM), and assess its performance using a multicentre approach. A multilevel analysis of eleven predictors of TLPD in 500 patients following PM was carried out to calculate the probability of TLPD. This algorithm was applied to three different TLPD samples (369 teeth) gathered retrospectively by nine periodontist, associating several intervals of probability with the corresponding survival rates, based on significant differences in the mean survival rates. The reproducibility of these associations was assessed in each sample (One-way ANOVA and pair-wise comparison with Bonferroni corrections). The model presented high specificity and moderate sensitivity, with optimal calibration and discrimination measurements. Seven intervals of probability were associated with seven survival rates and these associations contained close to 80% of the cases: the probability predicted the survival rate at this percentage. The model performed well in the three samples, since the mean survival rates of each association were significantly different within each sample, while no significant differences between the samples were found in pair-wise comparisons of means. This model might be useful for predicting survival rates in different TLPD samples This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. Jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: perturbative higher order predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinzierl, Stefan

    2011-02-01

    This article gives results on several jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: Considered are the exclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Geneva, Jade-E0 and Cambridge, which are typically used in electron-positron annihilation. In addition also inclusive jet algorithms are studied. Results are provided for the inclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Aachen and anti- k t , as well as the infrared-safe cone algorithm SISCone. The results are obtained in perturbative QCD and are N3LO for the two-jet rates, NNLO for the three-jet rates, NLO for the four-jet rates and LO for the five-jet rates.

  1. Do more hospital beds lead to higher hospitalization rates? a spatial examination of Roemer's Law.

    PubMed

    Delamater, Paul L; Messina, Joseph P; Grady, Sue C; WinklerPrins, Vince; Shortridge, Ashton M

    2013-01-01

    Roemer's Law, a widely cited principle in health care policy, states that hospital beds that are built tend to be used. This simple but powerful expression has been invoked to justify Certificate of Need regulation of hospital beds in an effort to contain health care costs. Despite its influence, a surprisingly small body of empirical evidence supports its content. Furthermore, known geographic factors influencing health services use and the spatial structure of the relationship between hospital bed availability and hospitalization rates have not been sufficiently explored in past examinations of Roemer's Law. We pose the question, "Accounting for space in health care access and use, is there an observable association between the availability of hospital beds and hospital utilization?" We employ an ecological research design based upon the Anderson behavioral model of health care utilization. This conceptual model is implemented in an explicitly spatial context. The effect of hospital bed availability on the utilization of hospital services is evaluated, accounting for spatial structure and controlling for other known determinants of hospital utilization. The stability of this relationship is explored by testing across numerous geographic scales of analysis. The case study comprises an entire state system of hospitals and population, evaluating over one million inpatient admissions. We find compelling evidence that a positive, statistically significant relationship exists between hospital bed availability and inpatient hospitalization rates. Additionally, the observed relationship is invariant with changes in the geographic scale of analysis. This study provides evidence for the effects of Roemer's Law, thus suggesting that variations in hospitalization rates have origins in the availability of hospital beds. This relationship is found to be robust across geographic scales of analysis. These findings suggest continued regulation of hospital bed supply to assist in

  2. Open-Source Learning Management Systems: A Predictive Model for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Rooij, S. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of pedagogical, technical, and institutional profile factors in an institution of higher education's decision to select an open-source learning management system (LMS). Drawing on the results of previous research that measured patterns of deployment of open-source software (OSS) in US higher education and…

  3. Predicting Public Confidence in Higher Education Institutions: An Analysis of Social Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates that there are two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). This aim has been reified consistently for nearly a century. By 2002, the pursuit of higher education had reached record levels. However, more recently, public confidence…

  4. Open-Source Learning Management Systems: A Predictive Model for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Rooij, S. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of pedagogical, technical, and institutional profile factors in an institution of higher education's decision to select an open-source learning management system (LMS). Drawing on the results of previous research that measured patterns of deployment of open-source software (OSS) in US higher education and…

  5. A higher rate of hyperandrogenic disorders in female-to-male transsexuals.

    PubMed

    Bosinski, H A; Peter, M; Bonatz, G; Arndt, R; Heidenreich, M; Sippell, W G; Wille, R

    1997-07-01

    In an effort to elucidate the aetiology of female-to-male transsexualism (FM-TS) 12 out of an annual sample of 16 untreated female-to-male transsexuals (FMT), aged 19 years 7 months (19;7) to 44 years 8 months (44;8) [median age (M) 27;5] were assessed by means of sexual-medical questionnaires, physical and endocrinological examination. The control group consisted of 15 healthy women (CF), aged 19 years 2 months (19;2) to 36 years 1 month (36;1) (M 22;7) without gender identity disorder, who were not under hormonal medication (including contraceptives). Baseline levels of testosterone (T; ng/dl), androstenedione (A4; ng/dl), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS; ng/ml), luteinizing hormone (LH; IU/l), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH; IU/l), and sex-hormone binding globuline (SHBG; microgram/dl) were measured. A standard single-dose ACTH stimulation test (250 micrograms ACTH IV; Synacthen) was performed with all subjects. Aldosterone (ALDO), corticosterone (B), deoxycorticosterone (DOC), progesterone (PROG), 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP), 11-deoxycortisol (S), cortisol (F), cortisone (E), pregnenolone (PREG) and 17-hydroxypregnenolone (OHPREG) were assessed before and 60 min after ACTH stimulation. Transvaginal ultrasound was performed in nine out of 12 FMT (20;11 to 44;8, M 27;5; m 29.1 +/- 7.5) but not in CF. Results showed that 10 FMT (83.3%) and five CF (33.3%) were above normal values for at least one of the measured androgens. Baseline levels of T and A4 were significantly higher in FMT than in CF (T: 54.0 +/- 13.8 vs. 41.1 +/- 12.8; A4: 244.8 +/- 73.0 vs. 190.5 +/- 49.3; p < .05), whereas DHEAS, SHBG, LH and FSH did not differ between the groups. Unbound T (T/SHBG ratio) was higher in FMT (72.0 +/- 67.6) than in CF (26.4 +/- 15.1). Baseline levels of 17OHP, OHPREG and DOC were higher in FMT than in CF (p < .05). After ACTH stimulation 17OHP and OHPREG remained higher in FMT than in CF (p < .05). Single case analysis of ACTH stimulation test together with

  6. Mechanical analysis of woven composites at high strain rates and its application to predicting impact behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryou, Hansun; Chung, Kwansoo; Lim, Ji-Ho

    2008-12-01

    The deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates was analyzed using a constitutive equation developed to describe the nonlinear, anisotropic/asymmetric and rate-dependent mechanical behavior of woven composites. The rate-dependent nonlinear behavior of woven composites was characterized at high strain rates (1 s-1 to 100 s-1) using a tensile testing method first proposed in this research. The material properties for the developed constitutive equation were determined and subsequently used in a finite element analysis of the deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates. Finally, the impact behavior of woven composites was predicted using the constitutive equation and the results were compared with experiments, showing that the current constitutive equation including the characterization method is adequate to describe the deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates up to impact level.

  7. Accuracy of rate coding: When shorter time window and higher spontaneous activity help

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levakova, Marie; Tamborrino, Massimiliano; Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr

    2017-02-01

    It is widely accepted that neuronal firing rates contain a significant amount of information about the stimulus intensity. Nevertheless, theoretical studies on the coding accuracy inferred from the exact spike counting distributions are rare. We present an analysis based on the number of observed spikes assuming the stochastic perfect integrate-and-fire model with a change point, representing the stimulus onset, for which we calculate the corresponding Fisher information to investigate the accuracy of rate coding. We analyze the effect of changing the duration of the time window and the influence of several parameters of the model, in particular the level of the presynaptic spontaneous activity and the level of random fluctuation of the membrane potential, which can be interpreted as noise of the system. The results show that the Fisher information is nonmonotonic with respect to the length of the observation period. This counterintuitive result is caused by the discrete nature of the count of spikes. We observe also that the signal can be enhanced by noise, since the Fisher information is nonmonotonic with respect to the level of spontaneous activity and, in some cases, also with respect to the level of fluctuation of the membrane potential.

  8. Faster photodegradation rate and higher dioxin yield of triclosan induced by cationic surfactant CTAB.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Xianliang; Zheng, Xiaodong; Xie, Qing; Yang, Xianhai; Xiao, Jie; Xue, Weifeng; Chen, Jingwen

    2014-06-30

    Triclosan has received extensive attention as it has been frequently detected in the aquatic environment. Photolysis was found to be a major pathway governing the fate of triclosan in the aquatic environment. However, the effects of surfactants that usually coexist with triclosan, on the photodegradation of triclosan, are largely unknown. In this study, the effects of selected surfactants on the photodegradation of triclosan were investigated experimentally. The results show that anionic sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate, sodium dodecyl sulfate and neutral polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate inhibit the photolysis of triclosan, whereas cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) significantly accelerates the photodegradation rate of triclosan. The interactions between the hydrophilic group of CTAB and anionic triclosan lead to the apparent decrease of pKa of triclosan from 8.4 to 6.1, which increase the fraction of anionic triclosan from 4% to 89% in neutral solution. A red shift in the UV-VIS absorption spectrum is exhibited, thus leading to the increased photodegradation rate of triclosan. The accelerations caused by CTAB were observed under xenon lamp and Hg lamp irradiances, as well as under natural sunlight. Effect of CTAB demonstrated pH dependence with significantly enhancement under pH 5∼9 and inhibition at pH=3. The presence of CTAB also increased the yield of 2,8-dichlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from the photolysis of triclosan about 7 times at pH=7.

  9. Higher rates of pressure decrease in inflamed compared with noninflamed middle ears.

    PubMed

    Alper, C M; Doyle, W J; Seroky, J T

    1999-07-01

    Recent clinical trials have renewed interest in middle ear inflation as a treatment for otitis media with effusion. However, air inflation in human beings with significant negative middle ear pressures was shown to be followed by a rapid pressure decrease to approach the preinflation values. In this experiment, the middle ears of anesthetized rhesus monkeys with unilateral inflammation were inflated at different times with air or N2, and pressures were recorded by tympanometry until they had stabilized or the animal had recovered from anesthesia. The results for air inflations reproduced those reported for human beings with negative pressures. Similarly, after N2 inflation a significantly greater rate of pressure decrease and significantly lesser terminal pressures were observed for inflamed ears when compared with the contralateral control ears. However, the rate of pressure decrease and the magnitude of the pressure drop were dampened by sequential N2 inflations. These observations have clinical implications with respect to the efficacy of inflation as a treatment for otitis media with effusion.

  10. Clinical chemistry in higher dimensions: Machine-learning and enhanced prediction from routine clinical chemistry data.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Alice; Signor, Ben M; Lidbury, Brett A; Badrick, Tony

    2016-11-01

    Big Data is having an impact on many areas of research, not the least of which is biomedical science. In this review paper, big data and machine learning are defined in terms accessible to the clinical chemistry community. Seven myths associated with machine learning and big data are then presented, with the aim of managing expectation of machine learning amongst clinical chemists. The myths are illustrated with four examples investigating the relationship between biomarkers in liver function tests, enhanced laboratory prediction of hepatitis virus infection, the relationship between bilirubin and white cell count, and the relationship between red cell distribution width and laboratory prediction of anaemia.

  11. Integrated prediction of protein folding and unfolding rates from only size and structural class.

    PubMed

    De Sancho, David; Muñoz, Victor

    2011-10-14

    Protein stability, folding and unfolding rates are all determined by the multidimensional folding free energy surface, which in turn is dictated by factors such as size, structure, and amino-acid sequence. Work over the last 15 years has highlighted the role of size and 3D structure in determining folding rates, resulting in many procedures for their prediction. In contrast, unfolding rates are thought to depend on sequence specifics and be much more difficult to predict. Here we introduce a minimalist physics-based model that computes one-dimensional folding free energy surfaces using the number of aminoacids (N) and the structural class (α-helical, all-β, or α-β) as only protein-specific input. In this model N sets the overall cost in conformational entropy and the net stabilization energy, whereas the structural class defines the partitioning of the stabilization energy between local and non-local interactions. To test its predictive power, we calibrated the model empirically and implemented it into an algorithm for the PREdiction of Folding and Unfolding Rates (PREFUR). We found that PREFUR predicts the absolute folding and unfolding rates of an experimental database of 52 proteins with accuracies of ±0.7 and ±1.4 orders of magnitude, respectively (relative to experimental spans of 6 and 8 orders of magnitude). Such prediction uncertainty for proteins vastly varying in size and structure is only two-fold larger than the differences in folding (±0.34) and unfolding rates (±0.7) caused by single-point mutations. Moreover, PREFUR predicts protein stability with an accuracy of ±6.3 kJ mol(-1), relative to the 5 kJ mol(-1) average perturbation induced by single-point mutations. The remarkable performance of our simplistic model demonstrates that size and structural class are the major determinants of the folding landscapes of natural proteins, whereas sequence variability only provides the final 10-20% tuning. PREFUR is thus a powerful bioinformatic tool

  12. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  13. Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

  14. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2015-01-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI. PMID:27231403

  15. Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

  16. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2007-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

  17. Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

  18. Predicting Cognitive Development, Intellectual Styles, and Personality Traits from Self-Rated Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Li-fang

    2005-01-01

    The present paper reports a series of six studies, each investigating the power of self-rated analytical, creative, and practical abilities for predicting one of six individual-difference variables: cognitive development, modes of thinking, career interests, learning approaches, thinking styles, and personality traits. Contributing to the…

  19. Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

  20. Predicting the rate of change in timber value for forest stands infested with gypsy moth

    Treesearch

    David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick

    1982-01-01

    Presents a method for estimating the potential impact of gypsy moth attacks on forest-stand value. Robust regression analysis is used to develop an equation for predicting the rate of change in timber value from easy-to-measure key characteristics of stand condition.

  1. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  2. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2007-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

  3. Practical calculator programs. Part 6. Program predicts drilling time, penetration rate

    SciTech Connect

    Chenevert, M.E.; Hollo, R.

    1981-10-05

    Chenevert's program, designed for the TI-59 programmable calculator, can determine the time (hr) needed to drill a new well to a given depth and the expected penetration rate (ft/hr) at that depth. The program bases its calculations on bit records obtained from an offset well. Extrapolation of the results can predict drilling times for deeper wells.

  4. Can the anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen test improve predictions of fertilizer nitrogen rates in the Cornbelt?

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Correctly estimating the amount of mineralizable nitrogen (N) can enhance nitrogen use efficiency. The anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen (PMNAn) test is a tool that may help improve predictions of N uptake, grain yield, and the economical optimum nitrogen rate (EONR) of corn (Zea mays L...

  5. Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

    PubMed

    Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. A temperature-dependent model for predicting release rates of pheromone from a polyethylene tubing dispenser.

    PubMed

    Bradley, S J; Suckling, D M; McNaughton, K G; Wearing, C H; Karg, G

    1995-06-01

    A model was developed to describe release of two formulations of tetradecenyl acetates in Shin Etsu polyethylene tubing pheromone dispensers. Change in pheromone column length in the polyethylene tubing was modeled bydl/dt=l ... (a+bT)/dt (wherel is column length,t is time interval, andT is average temperature for that time interval). Regression of the natural log of relative change in liquid length against time interval and accumulated day degrees in orchards produced the coefficientsa andb. The model was validated by comparing predicted and actual liquid length remaining in field-aged dispensers, as well as measuring release rates by using gas chromatography. Mean daily orchard temperatures and measurement of column length of dispensers on a single date were used to accurately predict column length within 15%, after six months. Predictions of instantaneous release rate were also made from this model, and other possible model uses and limitations are discussed.

  7. Smelting furnace melt zone wall modification to cope higher production rate operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayoga, Antonius

    2017-01-01

    PT Smelting adopted the Mitsubishi Continuous Technology for its copper smelter plant which has been operating since 1998. Through a series of expansion projects, the plant annual production capacity increased gradually from 200,000 to 300,000 tons of copper. There were no significant modification works for smelter plant to reach the 50% additional capacity. It was mostly achieved by intensifying the furnaces operation by increasing oxygen content in the furnaces blowing-air. Intensive smelting furnace operation has caused shorter campaign life of some furnace refractory, especially the melt zone wall on the furnace outlet side. During each furnace relining, which is done once in every two years, severe wall erosion was found. The worst condition occurred in year 2007 when the smelting furnace experienced a melt leak through the eroded wall beneath the bath-line coolers. During the 2008 furnace relining, a modification was performed by installing vertical coolers behind the melt zone wall The additional vertical coolers were installed during the 2012 furnace relining to extend the coverage area. The modification improved melt zone wall healthiness significantly by keeping them safely within the two-year campaign life. Recently a modeling study was done to estimate the influences of molten waves on furnace wall erosion. The study was aimed to predict the impact of blowing parameters such as blowing air velocity, on the melt wave character and wall erosion.

  8. Evaluation of eight different methods to predict hillslope runoff rates for a grazing catchment in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fentie, B.; Yu, B.; Silburn, M. D.; Ciesiolka, C. A. A.

    2002-04-01

    Unlike the USLE/RUSLE models, which require only rainfall intensity data to quantify climatic effects on soil erosion, physically based erosion models require data on runoff rates as their input. However, runoff rate data are rarely measured in the field. This study evaluates eight models in terms of their performance in predicting peak ( Qp) and effective ( Qe) runoff rates required by erosion models. The eight models are: (1) a multiple regression model (MR), (2) a power function model (PF), (3) a scaling technique (ST), (4) a constant infiltration model (CI), (5) a constant runoff coefficient model (RC), (6) a spatially variable infiltration model (VI), (7) the CREAMS peak runoff rate equation ( Qp_CREAMS), and (8) an empirical peak runoff rate equation ( QP_SAL). Rainfall and runoff data from experimental plots in a grazing catchment in central Queensland (Australia) were used. A commonly used model efficiency statistic ( E) was used to compare the performance of these models. Models resulting in high E values are said to perform better than models resulting in low values of E. Hence, with E values of 0.85 and 0.81 in predicting Qp and Qe, respectively, the PF model ranked first. On the other hand, with an E value of -12.7, the Qp_CREAMS performed the worst in predicting peak runoff rates. On the basis of input data requirements and number of free parameters involved in each model, however, the VI model, with E values of 0.82 and 0.79 for Qp and Qe, respectively, is found to be the best choice when breakpoint rainfall is available for an event. If only peak rainfall intensity is available, the ST with E values of 0.80 and 0.63 for Qp and Qe, respectively, would be the best model to use to predict these two runoff rate characteristics for the site.

  9. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Prince, Mark A; Connors, Gerard J; Maisto, Stephen A; Dearing, Ronda L

    2016-03-01

    Although past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. Sixty-five treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pretreatment, during treatment, and posttreatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients' and therapists' mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. One- through 4-class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4-months posttreatment. Three-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment.

  10. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

    2016-01-01

    While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

  11. Prospective prediction of college adjustment using self- and informant-rated personality traits.

    PubMed

    Kurtz, John E; Puher, Meredith A; Cross, Nicole A

    2012-01-01

    Studies that relate normal personality traits to students' adjustment to college have relied heavily on self-rating methods, concurrent designs, and academic performance indicators as criteria. We conducted a prospective study of high school seniors with a follow-up assessment made near the end of their freshman year of college. Self-ratings of personality traits and college adjustment were obtained from 90 students using the revised NEO personality inventory (NEO PI-R; Costa & McCrae, 1992) and the student adaptation to college questionnaire (SACQ; Baker & Siryk, 1989 ). Ratings of personality were also obtained from parents (n = 66) and same-sex peers from the college setting (n = 78) using the NEO five-factor inventory (NEO-FFI; Costa & McCrae, 1992 ). SACQ academic adjustment was correlated with conscientiousness ratings by all three sources and with openness ratings by parents and peers. SACQ Social Adjustment was correlated with self-ratings of neuroticism and peer ratings of extraversion. SACQ personal-emotional adjustment was correlated with self-ratings and parent ratings of neuroticism. Ratings by parents and peers showed significant incremental validity over self-ratings in the prediction of certain trait-adjustment relationships.

  12. The Relations between Lower and Higher Level Comprehension Skills and Their Role in Prediction of Early Reading Comprehension

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, Macarena; Cain, Kate

    2015-01-01

    This study of 4- to 6-year-olds had 2 aims: first, to determine how lower level comprehension skills (receptive vocabulary and grammar) and verbal memory support early higher level comprehension skills (inference and literal story comprehension), and second, to establish the predictive power of these skills on subsequent reading comprehension.…

  13. Engaging Students Emotionally: The Role of Emotional Intelligence in Predicting Cognitive and Affective Engagement in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maguire, Rebecca; Egan, Arlene; Hyland, Philip; Maguire, Phil

    2017-01-01

    Student engagement is a key predictor of academic performance, persistence and retention in higher education. While many studies have identified how aspects of the college environment influence engagement, fewer have specifically focused on emotional intelligence (EI). In this study, we sought to explore whether EI could predict cognitive and/or…

  14. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  15. Engaging Students Emotionally: The Role of Emotional Intelligence in Predicting Cognitive and Affective Engagement in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maguire, Rebecca; Egan, Arlene; Hyland, Philip; Maguire, Phil

    2017-01-01

    Student engagement is a key predictor of academic performance, persistence and retention in higher education. While many studies have identified how aspects of the college environment influence engagement, fewer have specifically focused on emotional intelligence (EI). In this study, we sought to explore whether EI could predict cognitive and/or…

  16. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  17. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates.

    PubMed

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-21

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  18. Infected honeybee foragers incur a higher loss in efficiency than in the rate of energetic gain.

    PubMed

    Naug, Dhruba

    2014-11-01

    Parasites, by altering the nutritional and energetic state of their hosts, can significantly alter their foraging behaviour. In honeybees, an infection with Nosema ceranae has been shown to lower the energetic state of individual bees, bringing about changes in behaviours associated with foraging. Comparing the foraging trip times, hive times in between trips, and the crop contents of uninfected and infected foragers as they depart on foraging trips and return from them, this study examined how any differences in these variables influence alternative foraging currencies. The results show that infected bees take longer foraging trips, spend shorter time in the hive between successive trips and bring back less sugar from each trip. These changes have a stronger adverse effect on their efficiency of energetic gain as compared with their rate of energetic gain, which has important implications for individual and colony life history. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimating shifts in diversification rates based on higher-level phylogenies

    PubMed Central

    Smrckova, Jana

    2016-01-01

    Macroevolutionary studies recently shifted from only reconstructing the past state, i.e. the species phylogeny, to also infer the past speciation and extinction dynamics that gave rise to the phylogeny. Methods for estimating diversification dynamics are sensitive towards incomplete species sampling. We introduce a method to estimate time-dependent diversification rates from phylogenies where clades of a particular age are represented by only one sampled species. A popular example of this type of data is phylogenies on the genus- or family-level, i.e. phylogenies where one species per genus or family is included. We conduct a simulation study to validate our method in a maximum-likelihood framework. Further, this method has already been introduced into the Bayesian package MrBayes, which led to new insights into the evolution of Hymenoptera. PMID:27703054

  20. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  1. Latitudinal difference in biodiversity caused by higher tropical rate of increase.

    PubMed

    Buzas, Martin A; Collins, Laurel S; Culver, Stephen J

    2002-06-11

    Tropical diversity has generally exceeded temperate diversity in the present and at points in the past, but whether measured differences have remained relatively constant through time has been unknown. Here we examine tropical vs. temperate diversities from the Neogene to Recent using the within-habitat diversity measure Fisher's alpha of Cenozoic benthic foraminifera from the temperate Central Atlantic Coastal Plain and the tropical Central American Isthmus. During the Neogene, the mean value of alpha at temperate latitudes increased 1.4 times or 40%, whereas in the tropics it increased 2.1 times or 106%. Thus, while both areas exhibit an increase of diversity with time, past differences in the rate of increase have generated a more pronounced gradient today (164%) than existed in the Miocene (80%). These data disagree with the suggestion that the world reached an equilibrium number of species during the Paleozoic and demonstrate the need to consider both temperate and tropical components in global diversity assessments.

  2. Dependency of exercise-induced T-wave alternans predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias from heart rate.

    PubMed

    Burattini, Laura; Man, Sumche; Fioretti, Sandro; Di Nardo, Francesco; Swenne, Cees A

    2015-07-01

    T-wave alternans (TWA) is a noninvasive index of risk for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias. It is known that TWA amplitude (TWAA) increases with heart rate (HR) but how the TWA predictive power varies with HR remains unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the dependency of exercise-induced TWA predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias from HR. TWA was identified using our HR adaptive match filter in exercise ECGs from 248 patients with implanted cardiac defibrillator (ICD), of which 72 developed ventricular tachycardia and/or fibrillation during the 4 year follow-up (ICD_Cases) and 176 did not (ICD_Controls). TWA predictive power was evaluated at HRs from 80 to 120 bpm by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) obtained using the maximum TWAA (maxTWAA) and the TWAA ratio (TWAAratio; i.e., the ratio between TWAA at a specific HR and at 80 bpm). TWAA increased with HR. At 80 bpm maxTWAA was lower than at 120 bpm in both ICD_Cases (22 μV vs 41 μV; P < 10(-2) ) and ICD_ Controls (16 μV vs 36 μV; P < 10(-4) ). However, only at 80 bpm ICD_Cases showed significantly higher maxTWAA than ICD_Controls (AUC = 0.6486; P = 0.0080). TWAAratio was higher in ICD_Controls than ICD_Cases for all HR but 120 bpm, and its predictive power was maximum at 115 bpm (AUC = 0.6914; P < 0.05). Exercise-induced TWA predictive power for the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias, quantified using both maxTWAA and TWAAratio, was higher at low rather than at high HR. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  4. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

    PubMed

    Fagan, William F; Pearson, Yanthe E; Larsen, Elise A; Lynch, Heather J; Turner, Jessica B; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E

    2013-07-22

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

  5. Improved prediction of higher heating value of biomass using an artificial neural network model based on proximate analysis.

    PubMed

    Uzun, Harun; Yıldız, Zeynep; Goldfarb, Jillian L; Ceylan, Selim

    2017-06-01

    As biomass becomes more integrated into our energy feedstocks, the ability to predict its combustion enthalpies from routine data such as carbon, ash, and moisture content enables rapid decisions about utilization. The present work constructs a novel artificial neural network model with a 3-3-1 tangent sigmoid architecture to predict biomasses' higher heating values from only their proximate analyses, requiring minimal specificity as compared to models based on elemental composition. The model presented has a considerably higher correlation coefficient (0.963) and lower root mean square (0.375), mean absolute (0.328), and mean bias errors (0.010) than other models presented in the literature which, at least when applied to the present data set, tend to under-predict the combustion enthalpy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Full-thickness myotomy is associated with higher rate of postoperative gastroesophageal reflux disease

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xue-Hong; Tan, Yu-Yong; Zhu, Hong-Yi; Li, Chen-Jie; Liu, De-Liang

    2016-01-01

    AIM To compare long-term occurrence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) between two different types of peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for achalasia. METHODS We included all patients with achalasia who underwent POEM at our hospital from August 2011 to October 2012 and had complete GERD evaluation with ≥ 3 years of follow-up. They were divided into circular or full-thickness myotomy groups according to the depth of myotomy. Demographics, Eckardt score, manometry results, 24-h pH monitoring, and GERD symptoms were recorded and compared between the two groups. RESULTS We studied 56 patients (32 circular myotomy and 24 full-thickness myotomy) with complete GERD evaluation. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of treatment success (defined as Eckardt score ≤ 3), postoperative Eckardt score, mean basal lower esophageal sphincter pressure, and 4-s integrated relaxation pressure (4sIRP). Postoperative abnormal esophageal acid exposure was found in 25 patients (44.6%). A total of 13 patients (23.2%) had GERD symptoms and 12 had esophagitis (21.4%). Clinically relevant GERD (abnormal esophageal acid exposure associated with GERD symptoms and/or esophagitis) was diagnosed in 13 patients (23.2%). Multivariate analysis revealed that full-thickness myotomy and low level of postoperative 4sIRP were predictive factors for clinically relevant GERD. CONCLUSION Efficacy and manometry are comparable between achalasia patients treated with circular or full-thickness myotomy. But patients with full-thickness myotomy and low postoperative 4sIRP have more GERD. PMID:27895430

  7. State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

    PubMed

    Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

    2009-01-01

    Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR.

  8. An Evaluation of Four Decades of Rate of Return Analysis in Higher Education Policy Making: Weaknesses and Future Prospects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria E.

    2003-01-01

    Assesses the importance of rate-of-return (RoR) analysis for planning and policy making in higher education. Reviews methods used and discusses criticisms against RoR in relation to the screening function of education, the measurement of educational costs and benefits, and the pure effect of education on earnings. Recommends extension of RoR…

  9. 41 CFR 302-4.302 - Are there circumstances that would allow me to receive a higher mileage rate OCONUS?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 4 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Are there circumstances that would allow me to receive a higher mileage rate OCONUS? 302-4.302 Section 302-4.302 Public Contracts and Property Management Federal Travel Regulation System RELOCATION ALLOWANCES PERMANENT CHANGE OF...

  10. Understanding the Effect of Response Rate and Class Size Interaction on Students Evaluation of Teaching in a Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al Kuwaiti, Ahmed; AlQuraan, Mahmoud; Subbarayalu, Arun Vijay

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This study aims to investigate the interaction between response rate and class size and its effects on students' evaluation of instructors and the courses offered at a higher education Institution in Saudi Arabia. Study Design: A retrospective study design was chosen. Methods: One thousand four hundred and forty four different courses…

  11. Comparison of Indirect Calorimetry and Predictive Equations in Estimating Resting Metabolic Rate in Underweight Females.

    PubMed

    Aliasgharzadeh, Soghra; Mahdavi, Reza; Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Namazi, Nazli

    2015-06-01

    Underweight as a public health problem in young women is associated with nutritional deficiencies, menstrual irregularity, eating disorders, reduced fertility, etc. Since resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a necessary component in the development of nutrition support therapy, therefore we determined the accuracy of commonly used predictive equations against RMR measured by indirect calorimetry among healthy young underweight females. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 104 underweight females aged 18-30 years old with body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m(2) in 2013. After collecting anthropometric data, body composition was measured by bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA). RMR was measured by using indirect calorimetry (FitMate™) and was estimated by 10 commonly used predictive equations. Comparisons were conducted using paired t-test. The accuracy of the RMR equations was evaluated on the basis of the percentage of subjects' predicted RMR within 10% of measured RMR. The mean BMI of subjects was 17.3±1.3 kg/m(2). The measured RMR ranged 736-1490 kcal/day (mean 1084.7±175 kcal/day). Findings indicated that except Muller and Abbreviation, other equations significantly over estimated RMR, compared to measured value (P<0.05). As an individual prediction accuracy, these predictive equations showed poor performance with the highest accuracy rate of 54.8% for Muller equation (22.1% under and 23.1% over-prediction) and 43.3% for Abbreviation equation (31.7% under and 25% over-prediction), the percentage bias was 1.8% and 0.63% and RMSE was 162 and 173 kcal/d, respectively. Although Muller equation gave fairly acceptable prediction, more suitable new equations are needed to be developed to help better management of nutritional plans in young underweight people.

  12. Accuracy of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in Korean athletic and non-athletic adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jae-Hee; Kim, Myung-Hee; Kim, Gwi-Sun; Park, Ji-Sun

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Athletes generally desire changes in body composition in order to enhance their athletic performance. Often, athletes will practice chronic energy restrictions to attain body composition changes, altering their energy needs. Prediction of resting metabolic rates (RMR) is important in helping to determine an athlete's energy expenditure. This study compared measured RMR of athletic and non-athletic adolescents with predicted RMR from commonly used prediction equations to identify the most accurate equation applicable for adolescent athletes. SUBJECTS/METHODS A total of 50 athletes (mean age of 16.6 ± 1.0 years, 30 males and 20 females) and 50 non-athletes (mean age of 16.5 ± 0.5 years, 30 males and 20 females) were enrolled in the study. The RMR of subjects was measured using indirect calorimetry. The accuracy of 11 RMR prediction equations was evaluated for bias, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS Until more accurate prediction equations are developed, our findings recommend using the formulas by Cunningham (-29.8 kcal/day, limits of agreement -318.7 and +259.1 kcal/day) and Park (-0.842 kcal/day, limits of agreement -198.9 and +196.9 kcal/day) for prediction of RMR when studying male adolescent athletes. Among the new prediction formulas reviewed, the formula included in the fat-free mass as a variable [RMR = 730.4 + 15 × fat-free mass] is paramount when examining athletes. CONCLUSIONS The RMR prediction equation developed in this study is better in assessing the resting metabolic rate of Korean athletic adolescents. PMID:26244075

  13. Prediction models of human plasma protein binding rate and oral bioavailability derived by using GA-CG-SVM method.

    PubMed

    Ma, Chang-Ying; Yang, Sheng-Yong; Zhang, Hui; Xiang, Ming-Li; Huang, Qi; Wei, Yu-Quan

    2008-08-05

    In this study, support vector machine (SVM) method combined with genetic algorithm (GA) for feature selection and conjugate gradient (CG) method for parameter optimization (GA-CG-SVM), has been employed to develop prediction models of human plasma protein binding rate (PPBR) and oral bioavailability (BIO). The advantage of the GA-CG-SVM is that it can deal with feature selection and SVM parameter optimization simultaneously. Five-fold cross-validation as well as independent test set method were used to validate the prediction models. For the PPBR, a total of 692 compounds were used to train and test the prediction model. The prediction accuracy by means of 5-fold cross-validation is 86% and that for the independent test set (161 compounds) is 81%. These accuracies are markedly higher over that of the best model currently available in literature. The number of descriptors selected is 29. For the BIO, the training set is composed of 690 compounds and external 76 compounds form an independent validation set. The prediction accuracy for the training set by using 5-fold cross-validation and that for the independent test set are 80% and 86%, respectively, which are better than or comparable to those of other classification models in literature. The number of descriptors selected is 25. For both the PPBR and BIO, the descriptors selected by GA-CG method cover a large range of molecular properties which imply that the PPBR and BIO of a drug might be affected by many complicated factors.

  14. Gas Pressure Profile Prediction from Variable Strain Rate Deformation Paths in AA5083 Bulge Forming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarrar, F. S.; Hector, L. G.; Khraisheh, M. K.; Deshpande, K.

    2012-11-01

    Two approaches to gas pressure profile prediction for bulge forming of AA5083 sheet under Quick Plastic Forming (QPF) conditions at 450 °C were investigated. The first was based on an algorithm internal to ABAQUS™ wherein the gas pressure results from maintaining a constant effective target strain rate at the dome pole. In the second, the nonlinear long wavelength stability analysis was combined with a single creep mechanism material model that accounts for hardening/softening. A series of stability curves, which denote combinations of strain and strain rate for unmitigated thinning and, ultimately, rupture of an AA5083 bar, were computed. These are based on a parameter that characterizes an assumed geometric non-uniformity, η. The associated uniaxial strains and strain rates were expressed in terms of von Mises effective strains and strains rates, and pressure profiles were computed. An ancillary approach to variable strain rate path prediction based on a thinning factor was used to suggest a suitable value of η in the stability analysis for a reasonable thinning level at the end of forming. Key advantages and disadvantages of both approaches to pressure profile prediction are examined relative to bulge forming time and thinning at a 50-mm dome displacement.

  15. Correlations suggest low magnesium may lead to higher rates of type 2 diabetes in Indigenous Australians.

    PubMed

    Longstreet, D A; Heath, D L; Panaretto, K S; Vink, R

    2007-01-01

    Diabetes accounts for a significant part of the morbidity and mortality experienced by Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations. Research over the past two decades has provided evidence of a clinical correlation between diabetes and low magnesium intake. Hypomagnesaemia is the most common electrolyte abnormality in diabetic outpatients and may be linked to the development of both macrovascular and microvascular diabetic complications. A diabetes risk reduction of 33%-34% has been found among those with diets highest in magnesium. This study examines the case for magnesium as a potential contributor to diabetes in Australia, especially among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Specifically explored are associations between diabetes and the magnesium content of drinking water and diet, as well as climatic and socioeconomic factors that may impact on magnesium status including temperature, rainfall, education, employment and income. Queensland age-standardized death rates due to diabetes were correlated with the magnesium content of drinking water, maximum average temperature, rainfall, unemployment rate, proportion of population with post-school qualification, weekly income, and the percentage population identified as Indigenous. Multiple-pass 24-hour recalls from a convenience sample of 100 Indigenous patients at a regional centre were also analyzed to estimate dietary magnesium intake. The Indigenous nutrient intake was then compared with the Australian National Nutrition Survey estimates. Diabetes related mortality was significantly correlated to the percentage of the population identified as Indigenous (r = 0.675), to water magnesium levels (r = -.414), and to average maximum daily temperature (r = 0.579). The average daily magnesium intake in an Indigenous cohort from a regional centre was 248 mg (men: 267 mg +/- 17; women: 245 mg +/- 6 mg), significantly less than intakes observed in the 1995 National Nutrition Survey (p<.001

  16. Phone respondents reported less mental health problems whereas mail interviewee gave higher physical health ratings.

    PubMed

    Ravens-Sieberer, Ulrike; Erhart, Michael; Wetzel, Ralf; Krügel, André; Brambosch, Anett

    2008-10-01

    This study examines the effects of telephone and mail interview methods on the measurement of health-related quality of life. One thousand six hundred ninety individuals aged 25-66 were interviewed randomly either by telephone or by mail. Health-related quality of life was assessed with the German SF-8. Although respondents in the telephone survey were more willing to participate (77.4% vs. 47.5%) the difference in the accessibility of publicly available address and telephone records meant that overall more people were interviewed by mail than by telephone (53.2% vs. 46.8%). No differences occurred in terms of the sociodemographic makeup. Telephone respondents gave a more positive account of the mental dimension of their health-related quality of life; whereas mail interviews led to a better rating of the respondents' physical well-being. Gender-specific analyses indicate a slight discrepancy in the influence of the method of interviewing on men and women. Further differences were identified concerning the variance in the existence of ceiling and floor effects and the correlation between items. Found differences are small but at least to be valued as relevant in certain settings. Therefore, we approve the use and development of factors of amendment.

  17. Are suicide rates higher in the cancer population? An investigation using forensic autopsy data.

    PubMed

    de la Grandmaison, Geoffroy Lorin; Watier, Laurence; Cavard, Stéphanie; Charlier, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Previous population-based studies have identified increased suicide rates among cancer patients. Available post mortem data on the contribution of cancer to completed suicide are limited, however. This study examines forensic autopsy data in order to assess whether cancer is significantly more frequent in a suicide population compared with a control population. In total, 232 cases were included in both the suicide and the control groups. Based on a complete standard histological examination, cancer was significantly more often found in the suicide group than in the control one (8.6% vs. 3.9%, p=0.03). The multivariate analysis also showed that the presence of cancer increased the risk of suicide. Moreover, cancer was not known to the deceased in 70% of cases, while the most frequent mental disease found in cancer-related suicide cases was depression (75%). In the 20 cancer-related suicide cases analysed herein, it was difficult to ascertain whether malignancy was the only motive for committing suicide, as cancer could be considered to be either a major causative factor for suicide or an incidental finding. Therefore, further research is warranted with the help of the psychological autopsy method to investigate the link between suicide and cancer further. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Space and time diversity in indoor wireless optical links achieving higher data rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alqudah, Yazan A.

    2013-02-01

    Multispot diffusing configuration (MSDC) in optical wireless links provide uniform optical power needed for multiaccess and spatial dependence that can be used to allow space diversity techniques over the link. The spatial channels are furnished in MSDC through utilizing multibeam transmitter that produces spatially confined diffusing spots, and a multibranch receiver with small enough branch field-of-view (FOV) to restrict the number of diffusing spots within its FOV. Here, we study different encoding techniques that use space and time diversity to reduce the bit error rate. An improved technique, constellation rotation, is proposed for pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) to increase the Euclidian distance between signal points, and thus reduce bit error. Our study shows that when a cap is placed on the amount of power allocated per channel, the performance of the improved 4-PAM using three spatial channels and soft binary decision provide the optimal performance. When the power allocated per user is restricted, the best performance is obtained through soft binary decision and by using symbols identified by their level and spatial channel to carry 2 bits per signal level-channel.

  19. How to predict a high rate of inappropriateness for upper endoscopy in an endoscopic centre?

    PubMed

    Buri, L; Bersani, G; Hassan, C; Anti, M; Bianco, M A; Cipolletta, L; Di Giulio, E; Di Matteo, G; Familiari, L; Ficano, L; Loriga, P; Morini, S; Pietropaolo, V; Zambelli, A; Grossi, E; Intraligi, M; Tessari, F; Buscema, M

    2010-09-01

    Inappropriateness of upper endoscopy (EGD) indication causes decreased diagnostic yield. Our aim of was to identify predictors of appropriateness rate for EGD among endoscopic centres. A post-hoc analysis of two multicentre cross-sectional studies, including 6270 and 8252 patients consecutively referred to EGD in 44 (group A) and 55 (group B) endoscopic Italian centres in 2003 and 2007, respectively, was performed. A multiple forward stepwise regression was applied to group A, and independently validated in group B. A <70% threshold was adopted to define inadequate appropriateness rate clustered by centre. discrete variability of clustered appropriateness rates among the 44 group A centres was observed (median: 77%; range: 41-97%), and a <70% appropriateness rate was detected in 11 (25%). Independent predictors of centre appropriateness rate were: percentage of patients referred by general practitioners (GP), rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases, and academic status. For group B, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in detecting centres with a <70% appropriateness rate were 54%, 93% and 0.72, respectively. A simple predictive rule, based on rate of patients referred by GPs, rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases and academic status, identified a small subset of centres characterised by a high rate of inappropriateness. These centres may be presumed to obtain the largest benefit from targeted educational programs. Copyright (c) 2010 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-01-20

    A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks that are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a

  1. Minilaparotomy to rectal cancer has higher overall survival rate and earlier short-term recovery.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Ming-Jun; Yang, Chuan-Hua; Li, Ka; Li, Li

    2012-10-07

    To report our experience using mini-laparotomy for the resection of rectal cancer using the total mesorectal excision (TME) technique. Consecutive patients with rectal cancer who underwent anal-colorectal surgery at the authors' hospital between March 2001 and June 2009 were included. In total, 1415 patients were included in the study. The cases were divided into two surgical procedure groups (traditional open laparotomy or mini-laparotomy). The mini-laparotomy group was defined as having an incision length ≤ 12 cm. Every patient underwent the TME technique with a standard operation performed by the same clinical team. The multimodal preoperative evaluation system and postoperative fast track were used. To assess the short-term outcomes, data on the postoperative complications and recovery functions of these cases were collected and analysed. The study included a plan for patient follow-up, to obtain the long-term outcomes related to 5-year survival and local recurrence. The mini-laparotomy group had 410 patients, and 1015 cases underwent traditional laparotomy. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the two surgical procedure groups. The overall 5-year survival rate was not different between the mini-laparotomy and traditional laparotomy groups (80.6% vs. 79.4%, P = 0.333), nor was the 5-year local recurrence (1.4% vs. 1.5%, P = 0.544). However, 1-year mortality was decreased in the mini-laparotomy group compared with the traditional laparotomy group (0% vs. 4.2%, P < 0.0001). Overall 1-year survival rates were 100% for stage I, 98.4% for stage II, 97.1% for stage III, and 86.6% for stage IV. Local recurrence did not differ between the surgical groups at 1 or 5 years. Local recurrence at 1 year was 0.5% (2 cases) for mini-laparotomy and 0.5% (5 cases) for traditional laparotomy (P = 0.670). Local recurrence at 5 years was 1.5% (6 cases) for mini-laparotomy and 1.4% (14 cases) for traditional laparotomy (P = 0.544). Days to first

  2. Higher Executive Control and Visual Memory Performance Predict Treatment Completion in Borderline Personality Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Fertuck, Eric A.; Keilp, John; Song, Inkyung; Morris, Melissa C.; Wilson, Scott T.; Brodsky, Beth S.; Stanley, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    Background Non-completion of a prescribed course of treatment occurs in 20–60% of individuals diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD). While symptom severity, personality traits and environmental factors have been implicated as predictors of treatment non-completion (TNC), there have been no studies of neuropsychological predictors in this population. Methods From a randomized controlled trial, a subsample of 31, unmedicated outpatients diagnosed with BPD with recent self-injurious behavior was assessed on 5 neuropsychological domains. Patients were also assessed for general IQ, demographic and other salient clinical variables. Patients were randomized to one of four treatment conditions, which lasted up to 1 year. Number of weeks in treatment (WIT) up to 1 year was utilized as the index of TNC. Results Thirty-three percent of the subsample (n = 12) did not complete 1 year of treatment. However, more WIT were predicted by better baseline executive control (Trails B; p < 0.01) and visual memory performance (Benton visual retention; p < 0.001); other neuropsychological domains did not predict WIT. Conclusion In the treatment of outpatients with BPD, better executive control and visual memory performance predict more WIT. Assessing and addressing these neurocognitive factors in treatment may reduce TNC in this high-risk population. PMID:22116411

  3. Informatics Technology Mimics Ecology: Dense, Mutualistic Collaboration Networks Are Associated with Higher Publication Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sorani, Marco D.

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature. We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications. Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative. Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  4. Children Receiving Free or Reduced-Price School Lunch Have Higher Food Insufficiency Rates in Summer.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jin; Barnidge, Ellen; Kim, Youngmi

    2015-09-01

    In 2012, 20% of households in the United States with children lacked consistent access to adequate food. Food insufficiency has significant implications for children, including poor physical and mental health outcomes, behavior problems, and low educational achievements. The National School Lunch Program (NSLP) is one policy solution to reduce food insufficiency among children from low-income families. The objective of this project was to evaluate the association between NSLP participation and household food insufficiency by examining trajectories of food insufficiency over 10 calendar months. The calendar months included both nonsummer months when school is in session and summer months when school is out of session. The study used the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and conducted linear growth curve analyses in the multilevel modeling context. Comparisons were made between the trajectories of food insufficiencies among recipients of free or reduced-price lunch and their counterparts who are eligible but choose not to participate in the program. Heads of households that included children receiving free or reduced-price lunch (n = 6867) were more likely to be female, black, unmarried, and unemployed, and have a lower educational attainment than those whose children were eligible but did not receive free or reduced-price lunch (n = 11,396). For households participating in the NSLP, the food insufficiency rate was consistent from January to May at ∼4%, and then increased in June and July to >5%. Meanwhile, food insufficiency among eligible nonrecipients was constant throughout the year at nearly 2%. The NSLP protects households from food insufficiency. Policies should be instituted to make enrollment easier for households. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  5. Informatics technology mimics ecology: dense, mutualistic collaboration networks are associated with higher publication rates.

    PubMed

    Sorani, Marco D

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature.We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications.Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative.Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  6. Predicting Protein-protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

    2017-04-01

    Protein-protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate.

  7. Cochlea-scaled spectral entropy predicts rate-invariant intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences1

    PubMed Central

    Stilp, Christian E.; Kiefte, Michael; Alexander, Joshua M.; Kluender, Keith R.

    2010-01-01

    Some evidence, mostly drawn from experiments using only a single moderate rate of speech, suggests that low-frequency amplitude modulations may be particularly important for intelligibility. Here, two experiments investigated intelligibility of temporally distorted sentences across a wide range of simulated speaking rates, and two metrics were used to predict results. Sentence intelligibility was assessed when successive segments of fixed duration were temporally reversed (exp. 1), and when sentences were processed through four third-octave-band filters, the outputs of which were desynchronized (exp. 2). For both experiments, intelligibility decreased with increasing distortion. However, in exp. 2, intelligibility recovered modestly with longer desynchronization. Across conditions, performances measured as a function of proportion of utterance distorted converged to a common function. Estimates of intelligibility derived from modulation transfer functions predict a substantial proportion of the variance in listeners’ responses in exp. 1, but fail to predict performance in exp. 2. By contrast, a metric of potential information, quantified as relative dissimilarity (change) between successive cochlear-scaled spectra, is introduced. This metric reliably predicts listeners’ intelligibility across the full range of speaking rates in both experiments. Results support an information-theoretic approach to speech perception and the significance of spectral change rather than physical units of time. PMID:20968382

  8. Predicting Protein–protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

    2017-01-01

    Protein–protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate. PMID:28418043

  9. Joint Prediction of the Effective Population Size and the Rate of Fixation of Deleterious Mutations.

    PubMed

    Santiago, Enrique; Caballero, Armando

    2016-11-01

    Mutation, genetic drift, and selection are considered the main factors shaping genetic variation in nature. There is a lack, however, of general predictions accounting for the mutual interrelation between these factors. In the context of the background selection model, we provide a set of equations for the joint prediction of the effective population size and the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations, which are applicable both to sexual and asexual species. For a population of N haploid individuals and a model of deleterious mutations with effect s appearing with rate U in a genome L Morgans long, the asymptotic effective population size (Ne) and the average number of generations (T) between consecutive fixations can be approximated by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] The solution is applicable to Muller's ratchet, providing satisfactory approximations to the rate of accumulation of mutations for a wide range of parameters. We also obtain predictions of the effective size accounting for the expected nucleotide diversity. Predictions for sexual populations allow for outlining the general conditions where mutational meltdown occurs. The equations can be extended to any distribution of mutational effects and the consideration of hotspots of recombination, showing that Ne is rather insensitive and not proportional to changes in N for many combinations of parameters. This could contribute to explain the observed small differences in levels of polymorphism between species with very different census sizes.

  10. Match rates into higher-income, controllable lifestyle specialties for students from highly ranked, research-based medical schools compared with other applicants.

    PubMed

    Patel, Mitesh S; Katz, Joel T; Volpp, Kevin G

    2010-09-01

    Factors impacting medical student specialty career choice are poorly understood, but may include income potential and lifestyle features such as limited and predictable work hours. Data from the National Resident Matching Program and the San Francisco Match were used to examine match rates into higher-income controllable lifestyle (CL), lower-income CL, and noncontrollable lifestyle (NCL) specialties from 2002 to 2007. We studied 3 cohorts: students from highly ranked, research-based medical schools, other US senior medical students, and independent applicants (consisting mostly of graduates from foreign medical schools). By 2007, 22.5% of students from highly ranked schools matched into a higher-income CL specialty compared with 16.5% of other US seniors and 8.4% of independent applicants. During the study period, students from highly ranked schools increased their match rate in higher-income CL specialties by 7.9%, while all cohorts experienced declines in match rates for NCL specialties. Compared with other US seniors, students from highly ranked schools were more likely to match into higher-income CL specialties (odds ratio [OR], 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-1.68), while independent applicants were much less likely to do so (OR, 0.46; 95% CI: 0.42-0.51). Independent applicants had the highest odds (OR, 2.38; 95% CI: 2.25-2.52) of matching into NCL specialties. All cohorts had declining match rates into NCL specialties from 2002 to 2007. When compared with other US seniors, students from highly ranked schools had the highest odds of matching in higher-income CL specialties, while independent applicants had the highest odds of matching into NCL specialties. These trends are important to consider in light of recent efforts to better balance the physician workforce.

  11. Prediction of outcome of bright light treatment in patients with seasonal affective disorder: Discarding the early response, confirming a higher atypical balance, and uncovering a higher body mass index at baseline as predictors of endpoint outcome.

    PubMed

    Dimitrova, Tzvetelina D; Reeves, Gloria M; Snitker, Soren; Lapidus, Manana; Sleemi, Aamar R; Balis, Theodora G; Manalai, Partam; Tariq, Muhammad M; Cabassa, Johanna A; Karim, Naila N; Johnson, Mary A; Langenberg, Patricia; Rohan, Kelly J; Miller, Michael; Stiller, John W; Postolache, Teodor T

    2017-11-01

    We tested the hypothesis that the early improvement in mood after the first hour of bright light treatment compared to control dim-red light would predict the outcome at six weeks of bright light treatment for depressed mood in patients with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). We also analyzed the value of Body Mass Index (BMI) and atypical symptoms of depression at baseline in predicting treatment outcome. Seventy-eight adult participants were enrolled. The first treatment was controlled crossover, with randomized order, and included one hour of active bright light treatment and one hour of control dim-red light, with one-hour washout. Depression was measured on the Structured Interview Guide for the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression-SAD version (SIGH-SAD). The predictive association of depression scores changes after the first session. BMI and atypical score balance with treatment outcomes at endpoint were assessed using multivariable linear and logistic regressions. No significant prediction by changes in depression scores after the first session was found. However, higher atypical balance scores and BMI positively predicted treatment outcome. Absence of a control intervention for the six-weeks of treatment (only the first session in the laboratory was controlled). Exclusion of patients with comorbid substance abuse, suicidality and bipolar I disorder, and patients on antidepressant medications, reducing the generalizability of the study. Prediction of outcome by early response to light treatment was not replicated, and the previously reported prediction of baseline atypical balance was confirmed. BMI, a parameter routinely calculated in primary care, was identified as a novel predictor, and calls for replication and then exploration of possible mediating mechanisms. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Predicting metabolic rate across walking speed: one fit for all body sizes?

    PubMed

    Weyand, Peter G; Smith, Bethany R; Schultz, Nicole S; Ludlow, Lindsay W; Puyau, Maurice R; Butte, Nancy F

    2013-11-01

    We formulated a "one-size-fits-all" model that predicts the energy requirements of level human walking from height, weight, and walking speed. Our three-component model theorizes that the energy expended per kilogram per stride is independent of stature at mechanically equivalent walking speeds. We measured steady-state rates of oxygen uptake of 78 subjects who spanned a nearly twofold range of statures (1.07-2.11 m) and sevenfold range of body masses (16-112 kg) at treadmill speeds from 0.4 to 1.9 m/s. We tested the size independence of the model by deriving best-fit equations in the form of the model on four stature groups (n ≥ 15): short, moderately short, moderately tall, and tall. The mean walking metabolic rates predicted by these four independently derived equations for the same set of reference subjects (n = 16; stature range: 1.30-1.90 m) agreed with one another to within an average of 5.2 ± 3.7% at the four intermediate speeds in our protocol. We next evaluated the model's gross predictive accuracy by dividing our 78 subjects into 39 stature-matched pairs of experimental and validation group subjects. The model best-fit equation derived on the experimental group subjects predicted the walking metabolic rates of the validation group subjects to within an average of 8.1 ± 6.7% (R(2) = 0.90; standard error of estimate = 1.34 ml O2·kg(-1)·min(-1)). The predictive error of the American College of Sports Medicine equation (18.0 ± 13.1%), which does not include stature as a predictor, was more than twice as large for the same subject group. We conclude that the energy cost of level human walking can be accurately predicted from height, weight, and walking speed.

  13. Higher intron loss rate in Arabidopsis thaliana than A. lyrata is consistent with stronger selection for a smaller genome.

    PubMed

    Fawcett, Jeffrey A; Rouzé, Pierre; Van de Peer, Yves

    2012-02-01

    The number of introns varies considerably among different organisms. This can be explained by the differences in the rates of intron gain and loss. Two factors that are likely to influence these rates are selection for or against introns and the mutation rate that generates the novel intron or the intronless copy. Although it has been speculated that stronger selection for a compact genome might result in a higher rate of intron loss and a lower rate of intron gain, clear evidence is lacking, and the role of selection in determining these rates has not been established. Here, we studied the gain and loss of introns in the two closely related species Arabidopsis thaliana and A. lyrata as it was recently shown that A. thaliana has been undergoing a faster genome reduction driven by selection. We found that A. thaliana has lost six times more introns than A. lyrata since the divergence of the two species but gained very few introns. We suggest that stronger selection for genome reduction probably resulted in the much higher intron loss rate in A. thaliana, although further analysis is required as we could not find evidence that the loss rate increased in A. thaliana as opposed to having decreased in A. lyrata compared with the rate in the common ancestor. We also examined the pattern of the intron gains and losses to better understand the mechanisms by which they occur. Microsimilarity was detected between the splice sites of several gained and lost introns, suggesting that nonhomologous end joining repair of double-strand breaks might be a common pathway not only for intron gain but also for intron loss.

  14. The (b)link between creativity and dopamine: spontaneous eye blink rates predict and dissociate divergent and convergent thinking.

    PubMed

    Chermahini, Soghra Akbari; Hommel, Bernhard

    2010-06-01

    Human creativity has been claimed to rely on the neurotransmitter dopamine, but evidence is still sparse. We studied whether individual performance (N=117) in divergent thinking (alternative uses task) and convergent thinking (remote association task) can be predicted by the individual spontaneous eye blink rate (EBR), a clinical marker of dopaminergic functioning. EBR predicted flexibility in divergent thinking and convergent thinking, but in different ways. The relationship with flexibility was independent of intelligence and followed an inverted U-shape function with medium EBR being associated with greatest flexibility. Convergent thinking was positively correlated with intelligence but negatively correlated with EBR, suggesting that higher dopamine levels impair convergent thinking. These findings support the claim that creativity and dopamine are related, but they also call for more conceptual differentiation with respect to the processes involved in creative performance.

  15. Poor self-rated health predicts mortality in patients with stable chronic heart failure.

    PubMed

    Inkrot, Simone; Lainscak, Mitja; Edelmann, Frank; Loncar, Goran; Stankovic, Ivan; Celic, Vera; Apostolovic, Svetlana; Tahirovic, Elvis; Trippel, Tobias; Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph; Gelbrich, Götz; Düngen, Hans-Dirk

    2016-12-01

    In heart failure, a holistic approach incorporating the patient's perspective is vital for prognosis and treatment. Self-rated health has strong associations with adverse events and short-term mortality risk, but long-term data are limited. We investigated the predictive value of two consecutive self-rated health assessments with regard to long-term mortality in a large, well characterised sample of elderly patients with stable chronic heart failure. We measured self-rated health by asking 'In general, would you say your health is: 1, excellent; 2, very good; 3, good; 4, fair; 5, poor?' twice: at baseline and the end of a 12-week beta-blocker up-titration period in the CIBIS-ELD trial. Mortality was assessed in an observational follow-up after 2-4 years. A total of 720 patients (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 45±12%, mean age 73±5 years, 36% women) rated their health at both time points. During long-term follow-up, 144 patients died (all-cause mortality 20%). Fair/poor self-rated health in at least one of the two reports was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 1.42 per level; 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.75; P<0.001). It remained independently significant in multiple Cox regression analysis, adjusted for N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), heart rate and other risk prediction covariates. Self-rated health by one level worse was as predictive for mortality as a 1.9-fold increase in NTproBNP. Poor self-rated health predicts mortality in our long-term follow-up of patients with stable chronic heart failure, even after adjustment for established risk predictors. We encourage clinicians to capture patient-reported self-rated health routinely as an easy to assess, clinically meaningful measure and pay extra attention when self-rated health is poor. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  16. A preventive approach to obstetric care in a rural hospital: association between higher rates of preventive labor induction and lower rates of cesarean delivery.

    PubMed

    Nicholson, James M; Yeager, David L; Macones, George

    2007-01-01

    Annual cesarean delivery rates in North America are increasing. Despite the morbidity associated with cesarean delivery, a safe preventive strategy to reduce the use of this procedure has not been forthcoming. During the 1990s, clinicians in a rural hospital developed a method of care involving prostaglandin-assisted preventive labor induction. An inverse relationship was noted between yearly hospital rates of labor induction and cesarean delivery. The purpose of our study was to compare cesarean delivery rates between practitioners who often used preventive induction and practitioners who did not, while controlling for patient mix and differences in practice style. Between 1993 and 1997, different hospital practitioners used risk-guided prostaglandin-assisted preventive labor induction with differing intensity. We used a retrospective cohort design, based on the practitioner providing prenatal care, to compare birth outcomes in women exposed to this alternative method of care with those in women not exposed. Multiple logistic regression analysis controlled for patient characteristics and clustering by practitioner. The exposed group (n = 794), as compared with the nonexposed group (n = 1,075), had a higher labor induction rate (31.4% vs 20.4%, P <.001), a greater use of prostaglandin E2 (23.3% vs 15.7%, P <.001), and a lower cesarean delivery rate (5.3% vs 11.8%, P <.001). Adjustment for cluster effects, patient characteristics, and the use of epidural analgesia did not eliminate the significant association between exposure to this preventive method of care and a lower cesarean delivery rate. Rates of other adverse birth outcomes were either unchanged or reduced in the exposed group. A preventive approach to reducing cesarean deliveries may be possible. This study found that practitioners who often used risk-guided, prostaglandin-assisted labor induction had a lower cesarean delivery rate without increases in rates of other adverse birth outcomes. Randomized

  17. Bayesian Inference for Genomic Data Integration Reduces Misclassification Rate in Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Xing, Chuanhua; Dunson, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are essential to most fundamental cellular processes. There has been increasing interest in reconstructing PPIs networks. However, several critical difficulties exist in obtaining reliable predictions. Noticeably, false positive rates can be as high as >80%. Error correction from each generating source can be both time-consuming and inefficient due to the difficulty of covering the errors from multiple levels of data processing procedures within a single test. We propose a novel Bayesian integration method, deemed nonparametric Bayes ensemble learning (NBEL), to lower the misclassification rate (both false positives and negatives) through automatically up-weighting data sources that are most informative, while down-weighting less informative and biased sources. Extensive studies indicate that NBEL is significantly more robust than the classic naïve Bayes to unreliable, error-prone and contaminated data. On a large human data set our NBEL approach predicts many more PPIs than naïve Bayes. This suggests that previous studies may have large numbers of not only false positives but also false negatives. The validation on two human PPIs datasets having high quality supports our observations. Our experiments demonstrate that it is feasible to predict high-throughput PPIs computationally with substantially reduced false positives and false negatives. The ability of predicting large numbers of PPIs both reliably and automatically may inspire people to use computational approaches to correct data errors in general, and may speed up PPIs prediction with high quality. Such a reliable prediction may provide a solid platform to other studies such as protein functions prediction and roles of PPIs in disease susceptibility. PMID:21829334

  18. Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

    2015-09-01

    There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

  19. Bayesian inference for genomic data integration reduces misclassification rate in predicting protein-protein interactions.

    PubMed

    Xing, Chuanhua; Dunson, David B

    2011-07-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are essential to most fundamental cellular processes. There has been increasing interest in reconstructing PPIs networks. However, several critical difficulties exist in obtaining reliable predictions. Noticeably, false positive rates can be as high as >80%. Error correction from each generating source can be both time-consuming and inefficient due to the difficulty of covering the errors from multiple levels of data processing procedures within a single test. We propose a novel Bayesian integration method, deemed nonparametric Bayes ensemble learning (NBEL), to lower the misclassification rate (both false positives and negatives) through automatically up-weighting data sources that are most informative, while down-weighting less informative and biased sources. Extensive studies indicate that NBEL is significantly more robust than the classic naïve Bayes to unreliable, error-prone and contaminated data. On a large human data set our NBEL approach predicts many more PPIs than naïve Bayes. This suggests that previous studies may have large numbers of not only false positives but also false negatives. The validation on two human PPIs datasets having high quality supports our observations. Our experiments demonstrate that it is feasible to predict high-throughput PPIs computationally with substantially reduced false positives and false negatives. The ability of predicting large numbers of PPIs both reliably and automatically may inspire people to use computational approaches to correct data errors in general, and may speed up PPIs prediction with high quality. Such a reliable prediction may provide a solid platform to other studies such as protein functions prediction and roles of PPIs in disease susceptibility.

  20. Elevated heart rate predicts β cell function in non-diabetic individuals: the RISC cohort.

    PubMed

    Bonnet, Fabrice; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Natali, Andrea; Monti, Lucilla; Golay, Alain; Lalic, Katarina; Dekker, Jacqueline; Mari, Andrea; Balkau, Beverley

    2015-09-01

    Elevated heart rate has been associated with insulin resistance and incident type 2 diabetes but its relationship with β-cell function is not known. Our aim was to investigate whether baseline heart rate is associated with β-cell function and hyperglycaemia. We used the prospective RISC cohort with 1005 non-diabetic individuals who had an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after 3 years. Impaired glucose regulation was defined as a fasting plasma glucose ≥ 6.1 mmol/l or a 2-h plasma glucose ≥ 7.8 mmol/l. Insulin sensitivity was assessed by the OGIS index and insulin secretion and β-cell glucose sensitivity at both baseline and 3 years. Baseline heart rate was positively related to both fasting (P < 0.0001) and 2 h glucose levels (P = 0.02) at year 3 and predicted the presence of impaired glucose regulation at year 3 in a logistic regression model adjusting for insulin sensitivity at inclusion (OR/10 beats per min: 1.31; 95% CI (1.07-1.61); P = 0.01). Baseline heart rate was associated with lower insulin sensitivity (β = -0.11; P < .0001), a decrease in both β-cell glucose sensitivity (β = -0.11; P = 0.003) and basal insulin secretion rate (β = -0.11; P = 0.002) at 3 years in an adjusted multivariable regression model. Baseline heart rate predicted the 3-year decrease in β-cell glucose sensitivity (β = -0.10; P = 0.007) and basal insulin secretion (β = -0.12; P = 0.007). Heart rate predicts β-cell function and impaired glucose regulation at 3 years in non-diabetic individuals, independently of the level of insulin sensitivity. These findings suggest a possible effect of the sympathetic nervous system on β-cell dysfunction, which deserves further investigation. © 2015 European Society of Endocrinology.

  1. Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

    2015-12-01

    One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

  2. Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

    1996-01-01

    We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

  3. Abstract Conceptual Feature Ratings Predict Gaze Within Written Word Arrays: Evidence From a Visual Wor(l)d Paradigm.

    PubMed

    Primativo, Silvia; Reilly, Jamie; Crutch, Sebastian J

    2017-04-01

    The Abstract Conceptual Feature (ACF) framework predicts that word meaning is represented within a high-dimensional semantic space bounded by weighted contributions of perceptual, affective, and encyclopedic information. The ACF, like latent semantic analysis, is amenable to distance metrics between any two words. We applied predictions of the ACF framework to abstract words using eyetracking via an adaptation of the classical "visual word paradigm" (VWP). Healthy adults (n = 20) selected the lexical item most related to a probe word in a 4-item written word array comprising the target and three distractors. The relation between the probe and each of the four words was determined using the semantic distance metrics derived from ACF ratings. Eye movement data indicated that the word that was most semantically related to the probe received more and longer fixations relative to distractors. Importantly, in sets where participants did not provide an overt behavioral response, the fixation rates were nonetheless significantly higher for targets than distractors, closely resembling trials where an expected response was given. Furthermore, ACF ratings which are based on individual words predicted eye fixation metrics of probe-target similarity at least as well as latent semantic analysis ratings which are based on word co-occurrence. The results provide further validation of Euclidean distance metrics derived from ACF ratings as a measure of one facet of the semantic relatedness of abstract words and suggest that they represent a reasonable approximation of the organization of abstract conceptual space. The data are also compatible with the broad notion that multiple sources of information (not restricted to sensorimotor and emotion information) shape the organization of abstract concepts. While the adapted "VWP" is potentially a more metacognitive task than the classical visual world paradigm, we argue that it offers potential utility for studying abstract word

  4. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab in HER2-positive breast cancer: pathologic complete response rate, predictive and prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Buzatto, I.P.C.; Ribeiro-Silva, A.; Andrade, J.M.; Carrara, H.H.A.; Silveira, W.A.; Tiezzi, D.G.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to retrospectively review the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate from patients (n=86) with stage II and III HER2-positive breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy at our institution from 2008 to 2013 and to determine possible predictive and prognostic factors. Immunohistochemistry for hormone receptors and Ki-67 was carried out. Clinical and pathological features were analyzed as predictive factors of response to therapy. For survival analysis, we used Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate 5-year survival rates and the log-rank test to compare the curves. The addition of trastuzumab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved pCR rate from 4.8 to 46.8%, regardless of the number of preoperative trastuzumab cycles (P=0.0012). Stage II patients achieved a higher response rate compared to stage III (P=0.03). The disease-free and overall survivals were not significantly different between the group of patients that received trastuzumab in the neoadjuvant setting (56.3 and 70% at 5 years, respectively) and the group that initiated it post-operatively (75.8 and 88.7% at 5 years, respectively). Axillary pCR post neoadjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab was associated with reduced risk of recurrence (HR=0.34; P=0.03) and death (HR=0.21; P=0.02). In conclusion, we confirmed that trastuzumab improves pCR rates and verified that this improvement occurs even with less than four cycles of the drug. Hormone receptors and Ki-67 expressions were not predictive of response in this subset of patients. Axillary pCR clearly denotes prognosis after neoadjuvant target therapy and should be considered to be a marker of resistance, providing an opportunity to investigate new strategies for HER2-positive treatment. PMID:28146217

  5. Visual ratings of atrophy in MCI: prediction of conversion and relationship with CSF biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Manja; Koedam, Esther L; Barnes, Josephine; Bartlett, Jonathan W; Barkhof, Frederik; Wattjes, Mike P; Schott, Jonathan M; Scheltens, Philip; Fox, Nick C

    2013-01-01

    Medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology may aid the early detection of AD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the relationship between structural and pathological markers is not well understood. Furthermore, while posterior atrophy (PA) is well recognized in AD, its value in predicting conversion from late-onset amnestic MCI to AD is unclear. In this study we used visual ratings of MTA and PA to assess their value in predicting conversion to AD in 394 MCI patients. The relationship of atrophy patterns with CSF Aβ1-42, tau, and p-tau(181) was further investigated in 114 controls, 192 MCI, and 99 AD patients. There was a strong association of MTA ratings with conversion to AD (p < 0.001), with a weaker association for PA ratings (p = 0.047). Specific associations between visual ratings and CSF biomarkers were found; MTA was associated with lower levels of Aβ1-42 in MCI, while PA was associated with elevated levels of tau in MCI and AD, which may reflect widespread neuronal loss including posterior regions. These findings suggest both that posterior atrophy may predict conversion to AD in late-onset MCI, and that there may be differential relationships between CSF biomarkers and regional atrophy patterns.

  6. Predicting organic hydrogen atom transfer rate constants using the Marcus cross relation

    PubMed Central

    Warren, Jeffrey J.; Mayer, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Chemical reactions that involve net hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) are ubiquitous in chemistry and biology, from the action of antioxidants to industrial and metalloenzyme catalysis. This report develops and validates a procedure to predict rate constants for HAT reactions of oxyl radicals (RO•) in various media. Our procedure uses the Marcus cross relation (CR) and includes adjustments for solvent hydrogen-bonding effects on both the kinetics and thermodynamics of the reactions. Kinetic solvent effects (KSEs) are included by using Ingold’s model, and thermodynamic solvent effects are accounted for by using an empirical model developed by Abraham. These adjustments are shown to be critical to the success of our combined model, referred to as the CR/KSE model. As an initial test of the CR/KSE model we measured self-exchange and cross rate constants in different solvents for reactions of the 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylphenoxyl radical and the hydroxylamine 2,2′-6,6′-tetramethyl-piperidin-1-ol. Excellent agreement is observed between the calculated and directly determined cross rate constants. We then extend the model to over 30 known HAT reactions of oxyl radicals with OH or CH bonds, including biologically relevant reactions of ascorbate, peroxyl radicals, and α-tocopherol. The CR/KSE model shows remarkable predictive power, predicting rate constants to within a factor of 5 for almost all of the surveyed HAT reactions. PMID:20215463

  7. Usefulness of the heart-rate variability complex for predicting cardiac mortality after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Previous studies indicate that decreased heart-rate variability (HRV) is related to the risk of death in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, the conventional indices of HRV have poor predictive value for mortality. Our aim was to develop novel predictive models based on support vector machine (SVM) to study the integrated features of HRV for improving risk stratification after AMI. Methods A series of heart-rate dynamic parameters from 208 patients were analyzed after a mean follow-up time of 28 months. Patient electrocardiographic data were classified as either survivals or cardiac deaths. SVM models were established based on different combinations of heart-rate dynamic variables and compared to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate. We tested the accuracy of predictors by assessing the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC). Results We evaluated a SVM algorithm that integrated various electrocardiographic features based on three models: (A) HRV complex; (B) 6 dimension vector; and (C) 8 dimension vector. Mean AUC of HRV complex was 0.8902, 0.8880 for 6 dimension vector and 0.8579 for 8 dimension vector, compared with 0.7424 for LVEF, 0.7932 for SDNN and 0.7399 for DC. Conclusions HRV complex yielded the largest AUC and is the best classifier for predicting cardiac death after AMI. PMID:24886422

  8. The Role of Prior Mathematical Experience in Predicting Mathematics Performance in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Fiona; Hannigan, Ailish; Fitzmaurice, Olivia

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of deficiencies in basic mathematical skills of beginning undergraduates has been documented worldwide. Many different theories have been set out as to why these declines in mathematical competency levels have occurred over time. One such theory is the widening access to higher education which has resulted in a less mathematically…

  9. Predicting Success in Higher Education: The Value of Criterion and Norm-Referenced Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Higher education's ability to retain students through to graduation appears to be an international challenge. This is also the case in South Africa where only 27% of student complete their studies in minimum time and where 55% are unlikely to ever graduate. These challenges have meant that extended degree programmes, where degrees are formally…

  10. What Predicts International Higher Education Students' Satisfaction with Their Study in Ireland?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finn, Mairéad; Darmody, Merike

    2017-01-01

    The internationalisation of higher education--a facet of broader processes of globalisation--has resulted in increased study-related travel, and the development of policies to attract international students. Nevertheless, in the context of a strong drive to recruit international students, little is known about how they are faring during their…

  11. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    PubMed Central

    van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome. Methods We conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls. Results Artifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn), good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN), and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1). HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024–0.966; p = 0.049). Conclusion In-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and

  12. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues.

    PubMed

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy's landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk.

  13. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy’s landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk. PMID:27011757

  14. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    SciTech Connect

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2011-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa. Conclusions: There is a lack of correlation between

  15. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  16. Predicting sex offender recidivism. I. Correcting for item overselection and accuracy overestimation in scale development. II. Sampling error-induced attenuation of predictive validity over base rate information.

    PubMed

    Vrieze, Scott I; Grove, William M

    2008-06-01

    The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in

  17. Predicting Heart Rate at the Ventilatory Threshold for Aerobic Exercise Prescription in Persons With Chronic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Boyne, Pierce; Buhr, Sarah; Rockwell, Bradley; Khoury, Jane; Carl, Daniel; Gerson, Myron; Kissela, Brett; Dunning, Kari

    2015-10-01

    Treadmill aerobic exercise improves gait, aerobic capacity, and cardiovascular health after stroke, but a lack of specificity in current guidelines could lead to underdosing or overdosing of aerobic intensity. The ventilatory threshold (VT) has been recommended as an optimal, specific starting point for continuous aerobic exercise. However, VT measurement is not available in clinical stroke settings. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify an accurate method to predict heart rate at the VT (HRVT) for use as a surrogate for VT. A cross-sectional design was employed. Using symptom-limited graded exercise test (GXT) data from 17 subjects more than 6 months poststroke, prediction methods for HRVT were derived by traditional target HR calculations (percentage of HRpeak achieved during GXT, percentage of peak HR reserve [HRRpeak], percentage of age-predicted maximal HR, and percentage of age-predicted maximal HR reserve) and by regression analysis. The validity of the prediction methods was then tested among 8 additional subjects. All prediction methods were validated by the second sample, so data were pooled to calculate refined prediction equations. HRVT was accurately predicted by 80% HRpeak (R, 0.62; standard deviation of error [SDerror], 7 bpm), 62% HRRpeak (R, 0.66; SDerror, 7 bpm), and regression models that included HRpeak (R, 0.62-0.75; SDerror, 5-6 bpm). Derived regression equations, 80% HRpeak and 62% HRRpeak, provide a specific target intensity for initial aerobic exercise prescription that should minimize underdosing and overdosing for persons with chronic stroke. The specificity of these methods may lead to more efficient and effective treatment for poststroke deconditioning.Video Abstract available for more insights from the authors (see Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/JNPT/A114).