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Sample records for rates predicts higher

  1. Predicting Higher Education Outcomes and Implications for a Postsecondary Institution Ratings System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker, Eddie G., II

    2016-01-01

    The accountability of colleges and universities is a high priority for those making policy decisions. The purpose of this study was to determine institutional characteristics predicting retention rates, graduation rates and transfer-out rates using publicly available data from the US Department of Education. Using regression analysis, it was…

  2. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  3. Lower-Order Pain-Related Constructs are More Predictive of Cold Pressor Pain Ratings than Higher-Order Personality Traits

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Jennifer E; Watson, David; Frey Law, Laura A

    2010-01-01

    Pain is a debilitating condition affecting millions each year, yet what predisposes certain individuals to be more sensitive to pain remains relatively unknown. Several psychological factors have been associated with pain perception, but the structural relations between multiple higher- and lower-order constructs and pain are not well understood. Thus, we aimed to examine the associations between pain perception using the cold pressor task (CPT), higher-order personality traits (neuroticism, negative affectivity, trait anxiety, extraversion, positive affectivity, psychoticism), and lower-order pain-related psychological constructs (pain catastrophizing [pre- and post], fear of pain, anxiety sensitivity, somatosensory amplification, hypochondriasis) in 66 pain-free adults. Factor analysis revealed three latent psychological variables: pain- or body-sensitivity, negative affect/neuroticism, and positive affect/extraversion. Similarly, pain responses factored into three domains: intensity, quality, and tolerance. Regression and correlation analyses demonstrated 1) all the lower-order pain constructs (fear, catastrophizing, and hypochondriasis) are related through a single underlying latent factor, that is partially related to the higher-order negative-valence personality traits; 2) pain- or body-sensitivity was more strongly predictive of pain quality than higher-order traits; and 3) the form of pain assessment is important – only qualitative pain ratings were significantly predicted by the psychological factors. Perspective: Consistent with the biopsychosocial model, these results suggest multiple pain-related psychological measures likely assess a common underlying factor, which is more predictive of qualitative than intensity pain ratings. This information may be useful for the development and advancement of pain assessments and treatments while considering the multidimensional nature of pain. PMID:20356801

  4. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    PubMed Central

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  5. Predicting the Divorce Rate: Down?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Theodore D.

    1983-01-01

    Predicted a decline in the divorce rate based on 10 factors including: decline in marriage rate, older age at marriage, mental health improvement, upper limit on employed women, less migration, end of the cultural revolution, exhaustion of latency effect of no-fault divorce, and fear of the consequences of divorce. (JAC)

  6. Predicting Mathematical Aptitude for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDonald, Betty

    2008-01-01

    This present study seeks to predict mathematical aptitude for higher education by examining the relationship between mathematics results from the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC) general proficiency examination and the results from the General Certificate of Education (GCE) advanced level examination. This present study arose from a more…

  7. Independent Ratings of Institutions of Higher Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russian Education and Society, 2007

    2007-01-01

    The ReitOR Agency has for the first time posted its ratings of colleges and universities in the Volga Federal District of Russia based on criteria of public assessment, having designated institutions in the following priority areas of training: machine building, energy, communications and telecommunications, management and economics, and gas and…

  8. Higher Death Rate Among Youth With First Episode Psychosis

    MedlinePlus

    ... Releases News Release Thursday, April 6, 2017 Higher death rate among youth with first episode psychosis NIH- ... experiencing first episode psychosis have a much higher death rate than previously thought. Researchers analyzed data on ...

  9. Perceived Rates of Return to Higher Education in Cyprus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria Eliophotou

    1997-01-01

    Estimates perceived rates of return to higher education in Cyprus, and uses them in logistic regression analysis to study effect of economic considerations on secondary students' decision to pursue higher education. The mean rate of return to higher education estimated by college candidates is considerably higher than that perceived by labor…

  10. Higher rates of sex evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Becks, Lutz; Agrawal, Aneil F

    2010-11-04

    The evolution and maintenance of sexual reproduction has puzzled biologists for decades. Although this field is rich in hypotheses, experimental evidence is scarce. Some important experiments have demonstrated differences in evolutionary rates between sexual and asexual populations; other experiments have documented evolutionary changes in phenomena related to genetic mixing, such as recombination and selfing. However, direct experiments of the evolution of sex within populations are extremely rare (but see ref. 12). Here we use the rotifer, Brachionus calyciflorus, which is capable of both sexual and asexual reproduction, to test recent theory predicting that there is more opportunity for sex to evolve in spatially heterogeneous environments. Replicated experimental populations of rotifers were maintained in homogeneous environments, composed of either high- or low-quality food habitats, or in heterogeneous environments that consisted of a mix of the two habitats. For populations maintained in either type of homogeneous environment, the rate of sex evolves rapidly towards zero. In contrast, higher rates of sex evolve in populations experiencing spatially heterogeneous environments. The data indicate that the higher level of sex observed under heterogeneity is not due to sex being less costly or selection against sex being less efficient; rather sex is sufficiently advantageous in heterogeneous environments to overwhelm its inherent costs. Counter to some alternative theories for the evolution of sex, there is no evidence that genetic drift plays any part in the evolution of sex in these populations.

  11. Public Rates of Return on Higher Education Investments, by State

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtright, Stephen H.; Fry, Cary G.

    2007-01-01

    Public rates of return on higher education expenditures are calculated by state. Benefits accruing to states from their investments in higher education are measured by differential tax revenues collected from college-educated citizens versus high-school-educated citizens. For most states we find an adequate rate of return on such investments.…

  12. Parent-progeny sequencing indicates higher mutation rates in heterozygotes.

    PubMed

    Yang, Sihai; Wang, Long; Huang, Ju; Zhang, Xiaohui; Yuan, Yang; Chen, Jian-Qun; Hurst, Laurence D; Tian, Dacheng

    2015-07-23

    Mutation rates vary within genomes, but the causes of this remain unclear. As many prior inferences rely on methods that assume an absence of selection, potentially leading to artefactual results, we call mutation events directly using a parent-offspring sequencing strategy focusing on Arabidopsis and using rice and honey bee for replication. Here we show that mutation rates are higher in heterozygotes and in proximity to crossover events. A correlation between recombination rate and intraspecific diversity is in part owing to a higher mutation rate in domains of high recombination/diversity. Implicating diversity per se as a cause, we find an ∼3.5-fold higher mutation rate in heterozygotes than in homozygotes, with mutations occurring in closer proximity to heterozygous sites than expected by chance. In a genome that is a patchwork of heterozygous and homozygous domains, mutations occur disproportionately more often in the heterozygous domains. If segregating mutations predispose to a higher local mutation rate, clusters of genes dominantly under purifying selection (more commonly homozygous) and under balancing selection (more commonly heterozygous), might have low and high mutation rates, respectively. Our results are consistent with this, there being a ten times higher mutation rate in pathogen resistance genes, expected to be under positive or balancing selection. Consequently, we do not necessarily need to evoke extremely weak selection on the mutation rate to explain why mutational hot and cold spots might correspond to regions under positive/balancing and purifying selection, respectively.

  13. Predicting discovery rates of genomic features.

    PubMed

    Gravel, Simon

    2014-06-01

    Successful sequencing experiments require judicious sample selection. However, this selection must often be performed on the basis of limited preliminary data. Predicting the statistical properties of the final sample based on preliminary data can be challenging, because numerous uncertain model assumptions may be involved. Here, we ask whether we can predict "omics" variation across many samples by sequencing only a fraction of them. In the infinite-genome limit, we find that a pilot study sequencing 5% of a population is sufficient to predict the number of genetic variants in the entire population within 6% of the correct value, using an estimator agnostic to demography, selection, or population structure. To reach similar accuracy in a finite genome with millions of polymorphisms, the pilot study would require ∼15% of the population. We present computationally efficient jackknife and linear programming methods that exhibit substantially less bias than the state of the art when applied to simulated data and subsampled 1000 Genomes Project data. Extrapolating based on the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Exome Sequencing Project data, we predict that 7.2% of sites in the capture region would be variable in a sample of 50,000 African Americans and 8.8% in a European sample of equal size. Finally, we show how the linear programming method can also predict discovery rates of various genomic features, such as the number of transcription factor binding sites across different cell types.

  14. Early Prediction of Student Dropout and Performance in MOOCSs Using Higher Granularity Temporal Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ye, Cheng; Biswas, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    Our project is motivated by the early dropout and low completion rate problem in MOOCs. We have extended traditional features for MOOC analysis with richer and higher granularity information to make more accurate predictions of dropout and performance. The results show that finer-grained temporal information increases the predictive power in the…

  15. Hispanic employees in the workplace: higher rate of fatalities.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Shelly; Ostendorf, Judith

    2010-01-01

    This article reviews the higher fatality and injury rates among the Hispanic population in the United States, whether legal immigrants, citizens, or illegal immigrants; reviews the current government and private industry regulations and safety programs; proposes additional legislation or programs; and describes the role of the occupational and environmental health nurse in reducing injuries and fatalities in this population.

  16. Issues in Predicting Black Student Success in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sedlacek, William E.

    The topic of predicting black student success in higher education is discussed. The Cultural Study Center (CSC) at the University of Maryland has begun a three phase research program aimed at answering the broad research question "Is there anything that could be called a unique black experience or experiences which could be measured and translated…

  17. Frequency rates and correlates of contrapower harassment in higher education.

    PubMed

    DeSouza, Eros R

    2011-01-01

    The current study investigated incivility, sexual harassment, and racial-ethnic harassment simultaneously when the targets were faculty members and the perpetrators were students (i.e., academic contrapower harassment; ACH). The sample constituted 257 faculty members (90% were White and 53% were women) from a medium-sized state university in the Midwestern United States. They completed an anonymous survey, including an openended question about a critical ACH incident. The findings revealed that 72% of the total sample had experienced some type of mistreatment from students during the past 2 years. The author hypothesized gender differences in frequency rates for overall ACH, incivility, and sexual harassment; however, there were none. Hence, this hypothesis was not supported. The author also hypothesized that incivility would predict sexual and ethnic harassment. This hypothesis was generally supported. Furthermore, he hypothesized that demographic, work-related, and tolerance for faculty-student romance would predict ACH and its subscales. The findings generally supported this hypothesis, with somewhat different predictors by gender. He also hypothesized that harassed faculty, especially women, would experience worse job-related outcomes than never harassed faculty. Neither gender nor the interaction was significant, but the main effect for harassment was, with harassed faculty members experiencing worse job-related outcomes than nonharassed faculty members. Thus this hypothesis was partially supported. Practical implications are discussed.

  18. Can arsenic occurrence rate in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 μg L–1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 μg L–1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology.

  19. Can arsenic occurrence rates in bedrock aquifers be predicted?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Marvinney, Robert G.; Culbertson, Charles W.; Zheng, Yan

    2012-01-01

    A high percentage (31%) of groundwater samples from bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta area, Maine was found to contain greater than 10 µg L−1 of arsenic. Elevated arsenic concentrations are associated with bedrock geology, and more frequently observed in samples with high pH, low dissolved oxygen, and low nitrate. These associations were quantitatively compared by statistical analysis. Stepwise logistic regression models using bedrock geology and/or water chemistry parameters are developed and tested with external data sets to explore the feasibility of predicting groundwater arsenic occurrence rates (the percentages of arsenic concentrations higher than 10 µg L−1) in bedrock aquifers. Despite the under-prediction of high arsenic occurrence rates, models including groundwater geochemistry parameters predict arsenic occurrence rates better than those with bedrock geology only. Such simple models with very few parameters can be applied to obtain a preliminary arsenic risk assessment in bedrock aquifers at local to intermediate scales at other localities with similar geology. PMID:22260208

  20. Can the structure of motor variability predict learning rate?

    PubMed

    Barbado Murillo, David; Caballero Sánchez, Carla; Moreside, Janice; Vera-García, Francisco J; Moreno, Francisco J

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies show that motor variability is actively regulated as an exploration tool to promote learning in reward-based tasks. However, its role in learning processes during error-based tasks, when a reduction of the motor variability is required to achieve good performance, is still unclear. In this study, we hypothesized that error-based learning not only depends on exploration but also on the individuals' ability to measure and predict the motor error. Previous studies identified a less auto-correlated motor variability as a higher ability to perform motion adjustments. Two experiments investigated the relationship between motor learning and variability, analyzing the long-range autocorrelation of the center of pressure fluctuations through the α score of a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in balance tasks. In Experiment 1, we assessed the relationship between variability and learning rate using a standing balance task. Based on the results of this experiment, and to maximize learning, we performed a second experiment with a more difficult sitting balance task and increased practice. The learning rate of the 2 groups with similar balance performances but different α scores was compared. Individuals with a lower α score showed a higher learning rate. Because the α scores reveal how the motor output changes over time, instead of the magnitude of those changes, the higher learning rate is mainly linked to the higher error sensitivity rather than the exploration strategies. The results of this study highlight the relevance of the structure of output motor variability as a predictor of learning rate in error-based tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record

  1. Using Enrollment Data to Predict Retention Rate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bingham, Melissa A.; Solverson, Natalie Walleser

    2016-01-01

    First- to second-year retention rates are one metric reported by colleges and universities to convey institutional success to a variety of external constituents. But how much of a retention rate is institutional inputs, and how much can be understood by examining student inputs? The authors utilize multi-year, multi-institutional data to examine…

  2. Reduction Rates for Higher Americium Oxidation States in Nitric Acid

    SciTech Connect

    Grimes, Travis Shane; Mincher, Bruce Jay; Schmitt, Nicholas C

    2015-09-30

    The stability of hexavalent americium was measured using multiple americium concentrations and nitric acid concentrations after contact with the strong oxidant sodium bismuthate. Contrary to our hypotheses Am(VI) was not reduced faster at higher americium concentrations, and the reduction was only zero-order at short time scales. Attempts to model the reduction kinetics using zero order kinetic models showed Am(VI) reduction in nitric acid is more complex than the autoreduction processes reported by others in perchloric acid. The classical zero-order reduction of Am(VI) was found here only for short times on the order of a few hours. We did show that the rate of Am(V) production was less than the rate of Am(VI) reduction, indicating that some Am(VI) undergoes two electron-reduction to Am(IV). We also monitored the Am(VI) reduction in contact with the organic diluent dodecane. A direct comparison of these results with those in the absence of the organic diluent showed the reduction rates for Am(VI) were not statistically different for both systems. Additional americium oxidations conducted in the presence of Ce(IV)/Ce(III) ions showed that Am(VI) is reduced without the typical growth of Am(V) observed in the systems sans Ce ion. This was an interesting result which suggests a potential new reduction/oxidation pathway for Am in the presence of Ce; however, these results were very preliminary, and will require additional experiments to understand the mechanism by which this occurs. Overall, these studies have shown that hexavalent americium is fundamentally stable enough in nitric acid to run a separations process. However, the complicated nature of the reduction pathways based on the system components is far from being rigorously understood.

  3. ATLAS trigger operations: Monitoring with ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min

    2017-01-01

    We present the operations and online monitoring with the ``Xmon'' rate prediction system for the trigger system at the ATLAS Experiment. A two-level trigger system reduces the LHC's bunch-crossing rate, 40 MHz at design capacity, to an average recording rate of about 1 kHz, while maintaining a high efficiency of selecting events of interest. The Xmon system uses the luminosity value to predict trigger rates that are, in turn, compared with incoming rates. The predictions rely on past runs to parameterize the luminosity dependency of the event rate for a trigger algorithm. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of the tool during recent operations.

  4. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  5. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; ...

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  6. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel C.; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-01-01

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification. PMID:23499924

  7. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burr, Devon M.; Bridges, Nathan T.; Marshall, John R.; Smith, James K.; White, Bruce R.; Emery, Joshua P.

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  8. Higher-than-predicted saltation threshold wind speeds on Titan.

    PubMed

    Burr, Devon M; Bridges, Nathan T; Marshall, John R; Smith, James K; White, Bruce R; Emery, Joshua P

    2015-01-01

    Titan, the largest satellite of Saturn, exhibits extensive aeolian, that is, wind-formed, dunes, features previously identified exclusively on Earth, Mars and Venus. Wind tunnel data collected under ambient and planetary-analogue conditions inform our models of aeolian processes on the terrestrial planets. However, the accuracy of these widely used formulations in predicting the threshold wind speeds required to move sand by saltation, or by short bounces, has not been tested under conditions relevant for non-terrestrial planets. Here we derive saltation threshold wind speeds under the thick-atmosphere, low-gravity and low-sediment-density conditions on Titan, using a high-pressure wind tunnel refurbished to simulate the appropriate kinematic viscosity for the near-surface atmosphere of Titan. The experimentally derived saltation threshold wind speeds are higher than those predicted by models based on terrestrial-analogue experiments, indicating the limitations of these models for such extreme conditions. The models can be reconciled with the experimental results by inclusion of the extremely low ratio of particle density to fluid density on Titan. Whereas the density ratio term enables accurate modelling of aeolian entrainment in thick atmospheres, such as those inferred for some extrasolar planets, our results also indicate that for environments with high density ratios, such as in jets on icy satellites or in tenuous atmospheres or exospheres, the correction for low-density-ratio conditions is not required.

  9. Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research.

    PubMed

    Peoples, Brandon K; Midway, Stephen R; Sackett, Dana; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012-2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the 'highest-impact' journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  10. Twitter predicts citation rates of ecological research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peoples, Brandon K.; Midway, Stephen R.; Sackett, Dana K.; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  11. Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact. PMID:27835703

  12. Predictions of cell damage rates for Lifesat missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Golightly, Michael J.; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy; Nealy, John E.; Katz, Robert

    1990-01-01

    The track model of Katz is used to make predictions of cell damage rates for possible Lifesat experiments. Contributions from trapped protons and electrons and galactic cosmic rays are considered for several orbits. Damage rates for survival and transformation of C3HT10-1/2 cells are predicted for various spacecraft shields.

  13. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    EPA Science Inventory


    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  14. Visible light communication using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate.

    PubMed

    Chow, Chi-Wai; Chen, Chung-Yen; Chen, Shih-Hao

    2015-10-05

    Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors are widely used in mobile-phone and cameras. Hence, it is attractive if these image sensors can be used as the visible light communication (VLC) receivers (Rxs). However, using these CMOS image sensors are challenging. In this work, we propose and demonstrate a VLC link using mobile-phone camera with data rate higher than frame rate of the CMOS image sensor. We first discuss and analyze the features of using CMOS image sensor as VLC Rx, including the rolling shutter effect, overlapping of exposure time of each row of pixels, frame-to-frame processing time gap, and also the image sensor "blooming" effect. Then, we describe the procedure of synchronization and demodulation. This includes file format conversion, grayscale conversion, column matrix selection avoiding blooming, polynomial fitting for threshold location. Finally, the evaluation of bit-error-rate (BER) is performed satisfying the forward error correction (FEC) limit.

  15. Comparison of CALPUFF and ISCST3 models for predicting downwind odor and source emission rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lingjuan; Parker, David B.; Parnell, Calvin B.; Lacey, Ronald E.; Shaw, Bryan W.

    CALPUFF model and ISCST3 Gaussian dispersion models were evaluated for predicting downwind odor concentrations and back-calculating area source odor emission rates. The comparison between the predicted and field-sampled downwind concentrations indicates that the CALPUFF model could fairly well predict average downwind odor concentrations. However, ISCST3 tended to under predict downwind odor concentrations as compared to the measured concentrations. Both the CALPUFF and ISCST3 models failed to predict peak odor concentrations using the constant average emission rate. Odor emission rates obtained by back-calculating fluxes using CALPUFF and ISC models with the same field measurements of downwind odor concentrations are significantly different. It indicates that back-calculated emission rates are model specific. The modeled emission rates tended to be higher than flux chamber source sampling results. The flux chamber protocol may under-estimate odor emission rates.

  16. Mass gathering medicine: event factors predicting patient presentation rates.

    PubMed

    Locoh-Donou, Samuel; Yan, Guofen; Berry, Thomas; O'Connor, Robert; Sochor, Mark; Charlton, Nathan; Brady, William

    2016-08-01

    This study was conducted to identify the event characteristics of mass gatherings that predict patient presentation rates held in a southeastern US university community. We conducted a retrospective review of all event-based emergency medical services (EMS) records from mass gathering patient presentations over an approximate 23 month period, from October 24, 2009 to August 27, 2011. All patrons seen by EMS were included. Event characteristics included: crowd size, venue percentage filled seating, venue location (inside/outside), venue boundaries (bounded/unbounded), presence of free water (i.e., without cost), presence of alcohol, average heat index, presence of climate control (i.e., air conditioning), and event category (football, concerts, public exhibitions, non-football athletic events). We identified 79 mass gathering events, for a total of 670 patient presentations. The cumulative patron attendance was 917,307 persons. The patient presentation rate (PPR) for each event was calculated as the number of patient presentations per 10,000 patrons in attendance. Overdispersed Poisson regression was used to relate this rate to the event characteristics while controlling for crowd size. In univariate analyses, increased rates of patient presentations were strongly associated with outside venues [rate ratio (RR) = 3.002, p < 0.001], unbounded venues (RR = 2.839, p = 0.001), absence of free water (RR = 1.708, p = 0.036), absence of climate control (RR = 3.028, p < 0.001), and a higher heat index (RR = 1.211 per 10-unit heat index increase, p = 0.003). The presence of alcohol was not significantly associated with the PPR. Football events had the highest PPR, followed sequentially by public exhibitions, concerts, and non-football athletic events. In multivariate models, the strong predictors from the univariate analyses retained their predictive significance for the PPR, together with heat index and percent seating. In the setting of mass event

  17. Emotional Competence and Drop-Out Rates in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingston, Emma

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to compare the emotional competence of first year undergraduates enrolled on a high or low drop-out rate (HDR and LDR, respectively) course, at a newly established university within the UK. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed methods approach using both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was…

  18. Dioecy is associated with higher diversification rates in flowering plants.

    PubMed

    Käfer, J; de Boer, H J; Mousset, S; Kool, A; Dufay, M; Marais, G A B

    2014-07-01

    In angiosperms, dioecious clades tend to have fewer species than their nondioecious sister clades. This departure from the expected equal species richness in the standard sister clade test has been interpreted as implying that dioecious clades diversify less and has initiated a series of studies suggesting that dioecy might be an 'evolutionary dead end'. However, two of us recently showed that the 'equal species richness' null hypothesis is not valid in the case of derived char acters, such as dioecy, and proposed a new test for sister clade comparisons; preliminary results, using a data set available in the litterature, indicated that dioecious clades migth diversify more than expected. However, it is crucial for this new test to distinguish between ancestral and derived cases of dioecy, a criterion that was not taken into account in the available data set. Here, we present a new data set that was obtained by searching the phylogenetic literature on more than 600 completely dioecious angiosperm genera and identifying 115 sister clade pairs for which dioecy is likely to be derived (including > 50% of the dioecious species). Applying the new sister clade test to this new dataset, we confirm the preliminary result that dioecy is associated with an increased diversification rate, a result that does not support the idea that dioecy is an evolutionary dead end in angiosperms. The traits usually associated with dioecy, that is, an arborescent growth form, abiotic pollination, fleshy fruits or a tropical distribution, do not influence the diversification rate. Rather than a low diversification rate, the observed species richness patterns of dioecious clades seem to be better explained by a low transition rate to dioecy and frequent losses.

  19. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors.

    PubMed

    Niessen, A Susan M; Meijer, Rob R; Tendeiro, Jorge N

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance.

  20. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  1. Teacher Professionalism and Student Evaluation of Teaching: Will Better Teachers Receive Higher Ratings and Will Better Students Give Higher Ratings?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spooren, Pieter; Mortelmans, Dimitri

    2006-01-01

    The use of student evaluations of teaching performance has been an important but controversial tool in the improvement of teaching quality during the past few decades. Although student evaluations of teaching are implemented in many faculties, not everyone is convinced of the desirability and utility of these ratings. In this paper, we present the…

  2. Expensive Brains: “Brainy” Rodents have Higher Metabolic Rate

    PubMed Central

    Sobrero, Raúl; May-Collado, Laura J.; Agnarsson, Ingi; Hernández, Cristián E.

    2011-01-01

    Brains are the centers of the nervous system of animals, controlling the organ systems of the body and coordinating responses to changes in the ecological and social environment. The evolution of traits that correlate with cognitive ability, such as relative brain size is thus of broad interest. Brain mass relative to body mass (BM) varies among mammals, and diverse factors have been proposed to explain this variation. A recent study provided evidence that energetics play an important role in brain evolution (Isler and van Schaik, 2006). Using composite phylogenies and data drawn from multiple sources, these authors showed that basal metabolic rate (BMR) correlates with brain mass across mammals. However, no such relationship was found within rodents. Here we re-examined the relationship between BMR and brain mass within Rodentia using a novel species-level phylogeny. Our results are sensitive to parameter evaluation; in particular how species mass is estimated. We detect no pattern when applying an approach used by previous studies, where each species BM is represented by two different numbers, one being the individual that happened to be used for BMR estimates of that species. However, this approach may compromise the analysis. When using a single value of BM for each species, whether representing a single individual, or available species mean, our findings provide evidence that brain mass (independent of BM) and BMR are correlated. These findings are thus consistent with the hypothesis that large brains evolve when the payoff for increased brain mass is greater than the energetic cost they incur. PMID:21811456

  3. Plasma metabolite levels predict bird growth rates: A field test of model predictive ability.

    PubMed

    Albano, Noelia; Masero, José A; Villegas, Auxiliadora; Abad-Gómez, José María; Sánchez-Guzmán, Juan M

    2011-09-01

    Bird growth rates are usually derived from nonlinear relationships between age and some morphological structure, but this procedure may be limited by several factors. To date, nothing is known about the capacity of plasma metabolite profiling to predict chick growth rates. Based on laboratory-trials, we here develop predictive logistic models of body mass, and tarsus and wing length growth rates in Gull-billed Tern Gelochelidon nilotica chicks from measurements of plasma metabolite levels at different developmental stages. The predictive model obtained during the fastest growth period (at the age of 12 days) explained 65-68% of the chicks' growth rates, with fasting triglyceride level explaining most of the variation in growth rate. At the end of pre-fledging period, β-hydroxybutyrate level was also a good predictor of growth rates. Finally, we carried out a field test to check the predictive capacity of the models in two colonies of wild Gull-billed Tern, comparing field-measured and model-predicted growth rates between groups. Both, measured and predicted growth rates, matched statistically. Plasma metabolite levels can thus be applied in comparative studies of chick growth rates when semi-precocial birds can be captured only once.

  4. Asteroid orbits and ephemerides: Towards higher-fidelity predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farnocchia, D.; Chesley, S.; Milani, A.; Chodas, P.

    2014-07-01

    Since the discovery of the first minor planet Ceres, astronomers have faced the problem of determining asteroid orbits and providing reliable ephemeris predictions. Though the theoretical algorithms to solve this problem are well consolidated, we still have to face several challenges when estimating asteroid trajectories. The computation of an asteroid orbit is determined by the optical and radar astrometric observations available. Thus, the observation error model is crucial for providing reliable orbits and uncertainty information. The presence of systematic errors in asteroid optical astrometry is a known issue that we have to deal with. Therefore, we show how to correct for star catalog biases due to star position and proper motion errors by using the PPMXL catalog as reference. Moreover, since the quality of observations from different observatories and different observing programs is uneven, we apply individual data weights to each observation according to the expected quality. We also discuss how to mitigate the possible correlations arising between observations from the same observatory that are closely spaced in time. Beside the treatment of the astrometry, the dynamical model is an essential component when computing asteroid orbits. For a very well constrained orbit, even small accelerations can be required in order to fit the observational dataset and to make reliable predictions. We account for the gravitational attraction due to the Sun, the planets, the Moon, and Pluto as well as that due to the 16 most massive bodies in the main asteroid belt. We also include a relativistic model that account for both Solar and relativistic terms. Non-gravitational perturbations may be a relevant component of the dynamical model and they are difficult to model since they depend on the considered asteroid's physical properties, which are typically unknown. We discuss how to estimate non-gravitational perturbations and the resulting uncertainty by either determining

  5. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    PubMed Central

    Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

  6. ATLAS trigger operations: Upgrades to ``Xmon'' rate prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers, Ava; Aukerman, Andrew; Hong, Tae Min; Atlas Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    We present ``Xmon,'' a tool to monitor trigger rates in the Control Room of the ATLAS Experiment. We discuss Xmon's recent (1) updates, (2) upgrades, and (3) operations. (1) Xmon was updated to modify the tool written for the three-level trigger architecture in Run-1 (2009-2012) to adapt to the new two-level system for Run-2 (2015-current). The tool takes as input the beam luminosity to make a rate prediction, which is compared with incoming rates to detect anomalies that occur both globally throughout a run and locally within a run. Global offsets are more commonly caught by the predictions based upon past runs, where offline processing allows for function adjustments and fit quality through outlier rejection. (2) Xmon was upgraded to detect local offsets using on-the-fly predictions, which uses a sliding window of in-run rates to make predictions. (3) Xmon operations examples are given. Future work involves further automation of the steps to provide the predictive functions and for alerting shifters.

  7. Prediction of mortality rates in the presence of missing values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2015-12-01

    A time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied in the past literature on the United States (US) mortality data from the years 1933 to 2000 to forecast the future age-specific mortality rates of the years 2001 to 2010. In this paper, we show that the method based on multivariate power-normal distribution can still be used for an incomplete US mortality dataset that contains some missing values. The prediction intervals based on this incomplete training data are found to still have good ability of covering the observed future mortality rates although the interval lengths may become wider for long-range prediction.

  8. Predicting perceptual learning from higher-order cortical processing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Fang; Huang, Jing; Lv, Yaping; Ma, Xiaoli; Yang, Bin; Wang, Encong; Du, Boqi; Li, Wu; Song, Yan

    2016-01-01

    Visual perceptual learning has been shown to be highly specific to the retinotopic location and attributes of the trained stimulus. Recent psychophysical studies suggest that these specificities, which have been associated with early retinotopic visual cortex, may in fact not be inherent in perceptual learning and could be related to higher-order brain functions. Here we provide direct electrophysiological evidence in support of this proposition. In a series of event-related potential (ERP) experiments, we recorded high-density electroencephalography (EEG) from human adults over the course of learning in a texture discrimination task (TDT). The results consistently showed that the earliest C1 component (68-84ms), known to reflect V1 activity driven by feedforward inputs, was not modulated by learning regardless of whether the behavioral improvement is location specific or not. In contrast, two later posterior ERP components (posterior P1 and P160-350) over the occipital cortex and one anterior ERP component (anterior P160-350) over the prefrontal cortex were progressively modified day by day. Moreover, the change of the anterior component was closely correlated with improved behavioral performance on a daily basis. Consistent with recent psychophysical and imaging observations, our results indicate that perceptual learning can mainly involve changes in higher-level visual cortex as well as in the neural networks responsible for cognitive functions such as attention and decision making.

  9. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  10. Cross-validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Background: Knowledge of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) is necessary for determining individual total energy requirements. Measurement of RMR is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, the accuracy of these equations...

  11. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  12. Prediction of Rate Constants for Catalytic Reactions with Chemical Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Catlow, C Richard A

    2016-08-01

    Ex machina: A computational method for predicting rate constants for reactions within microporous zeolite catalysts with chemical accuracy has recently been reported. A key feature of this method is a stepwise QM/MM approach that allows accuracy to be achieved while using realistic models with accessible computer resources.

  13. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  14. Predicting binary merger event rates for advanced LIGO/Virgo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holz, Daniel; Belczynski, Chris; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Bulik, Tomek; LIGO Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We discuss estimates of the rates of mergers of binary systems composed of neutron stars and/or stellar mass black holes. We use the StarTrack population synthesis code, and make predictions for the detection rate of compact binary coalescences with the advanced LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave detectors. Because these instruments are sensitive to massive (M > 20M⊙) stellar-mass binary black holes mergers out to high redshift (z > 1), we discuss the cosmological effects which must be taken into account when calculating LIGO detection rates, including a generalization of the calculation of the ``peanut factor'' and the sensitive time-volume.

  15. Reliable activation to novel stimuli predicts higher fluid intelligence.

    PubMed

    Euler, Matthew J; Weisend, Michael P; Jung, Rex E; Thoma, Robert J; Yeo, Ronald A

    2015-07-01

    The ability to reliably respond to stimuli could be an important biological determinant of differences in fluid intelligence (Gf). However, most electrophysiological studies of Gf employ event-related potential (ERP) measures that average brain activity over trials, and hence have limited power to quantify neural variability. Time-frequency analyses can capture cross-trial variation in the phase of neural activity, and thus can help address the importance of neural reliability to differences in Gf. This study recruited a community sample of healthy adults and measured inter-trial phase clustering (ITPC), total spectral power, and ERP amplitudes elicited by Repeated and Novel non-target stimuli during two visual oddball tasks. Condition effects, relations among the EEG measures, and relations with Gf were assessed. Early visual responses to Repeated stimuli elicited higher ITPC, yet only ITPC elicited by Novel stimuli was associated with Gf. Analyses of spectral power further highlighted the contribution of phase consistency to the findings. The link between Gf and reliable responding to changing inputs suggests an important role for flexible resource allocation in fluid intellectual skills.

  16. Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

    2016-10-01

    Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

  17. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  18. Predicting domains and rates of change in borderline personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Lenzenweger, Mark F; Clarkin, John F; Levy, Kenneth N; Yeomans, Frank E; Kernberg, Otto F

    2012-04-01

    What changes and how quickly these changes occur as a result of therapy in borderline personality disorder (BPD) is an important ongoing question. The features of BPD patients that are most predictive of rates of change in such patients remain largely unknown. Using the Cornell Personality Disorders Institute (CPDI) randomized controlled trial data, we sought to determine (a) the number and nature of broad domains underlying a large number of rate of change (slope) measures across many psychological, psychiatric, and psychosocial indexes, and (b) which baseline individual difference psychological features of the BPD patients correlated with these rate of change domains. We examined the latent structure of slope (rate of change) measures gleaned from individual growth curves for each subject, studied in multiwave perspective, on separate measures of anger, aggression, impulsivity, depression, global functioning, and social adjustment. Three broad domains of change rate could be discerned. These domains were reflected in factors that are described as (a) anger/aggression change ("aggressive dyscontrol"), (b) global functioning/social adjustment change ("social adjustment/self-acceptance"), and (c) anxiety/depression/impulsivity change ("conflict tolerance/behavioral control"). Factor scores were computed for each change domain and baseline measures of personality and psychodynamic features, selected a priori, were correlated with these factor scores. Multiple regression analyses revealed (a) baseline negative affectivity and aggression predicted the aggressive dyscontrol change domain, (b) baseline identity diffusion predicted the social adjustment/self-acceptance change domain, and (c) baseline social potency predicted the conflict tolerance/behavioral control change domain. These baseline predictors suggest potential research foci for understanding those aspects of BPD that change at comparable rates over time.

  19. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  20. Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

  1. Higher event rate in patients with known CAD despite a normal myocardial perfusion scan

    PubMed Central

    Fatima, Nosheen; Zaman, Unaiza; Zaman, Areeba; Balcoh, Dad J.; Rasheed, S Zahed

    2014-01-01

    Objective The negative predictive value of a normal single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is very high. However, prognostic implication of a normal SPECT MPI in patients with known coronary artery disease (CAD) is not clear. Objective of this study was to evaluate the cardiac event rate in patients with known CAD who had a normal stress SPECT MPI. Methods This prospective study accrued 428 consecutive patients with a history of CAD [revascularization or previous myocardial infarction (MI)] who had a normal stress (dynamic exercise or dipyridamole intervention) and rest Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT MPI. These patients were followed for 2-5 years (median: 3.1 years) for all-cause and cardiac mortality and non-fatal MI. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of outcome. Results During a follow-up period, all-cause mortality was found in 60 patients (14%) and 41 (10%) died of cardiac reasons. Non-fatal MI was found in 77 (18%) patients. Annualized cardiac mortality and non-fatal MI rates were 2% and 3.6% respectively. Smoking, congestive heart failure (CHF) and failure to achieve 85% age predicted heart rate were found to be predictors for all-cause and cardiac mortality. Diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and limited functional capacity (<7 METS) were found to be predictors for non-fatal MI. Conclusions Patients with known CAD had higher cardiac event rates despite a normal stress SPECT MPI. Diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking and limited functional capacity were the predictors for fatal and non-fatal cardiac events. A cost effective but comprehensive surveillance strategy is warranted. PMID:25009792

  2. Estimating 1 min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulson, Kevin S.

    2017-01-01

    Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1 min rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen-Poiares Baptista method where 1 min rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of 6 h accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP, and these are linked to distributions of fine-scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK, and the extension to other regions is discussed.

  3. Nonideal statistical rate theory formulation to predict evaporation rates from equations of state.

    PubMed

    Kapoor, Atam; Elliott, Janet A W

    2008-11-27

    A method of including nonideal effects in the statistical rate theory (SRT) formulation is presented and a generic equation-of-state based SRT model was developed for predicting evaporation rates. Further, taking the Peng-Robinson equation of state as an example, vapor phase pressures at which particular evaporation rates are expected were calculated, and the predictions were found to be in excellent agreement with the experimental observations for water and octane. A high temperature range (near the critical region) where the previously existing ideal SRT model is expected to yield inaccurate results was identified and predictions (for ethane and butane) were instead made with the Peng-Robinson based SRT model to correct for fluid nonidealities at high temperatures and pressures.

  4. The increasing predictive validity of self-rated health.

    PubMed

    Schnittker, Jason; Bacak, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not.

  5. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  6. Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

  7. Prediction of trapping rates in mixtures of partially absorbing spheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kansal, Anuraag R.; Torquato, Salvatore

    2002-06-01

    The combined effects of diffusion and reaction in heterogeneous media govern the behavior of a wide variety of physical and biological phenomena, including the consumption of nutrients by cells and the study of magnetic relaxation in tissues. We have considered the so-called "trapping problem," in which diffusion takes place exterior to a collection of fixed traps while reaction occurs at their surface. A simulation technique for predicting the overall trapping rate for systems of partially absorbing spherical traps based on the first-passage spheres method is presented. Using data obtained by applying this simulation technique, we then consider the problem of mixtures of partially absorbing traps. By hypothesizing a method for reducing a general mixture of traps to a mixture of perfect absorbers and perfect reflectors (i.e., reducing the dimensionality of the space of variables), we are able to accurately predict the effective surface rate constant and the trapping rate for an arbitrary mixture of partially absorbing traps. Remarkably, we find that a single, nearly universal curve allows accurate predictions to be made over a wide range of trap volume fractions and even for different trap distributions.

  8. Prediction of microbial growth rate versus biomass yield by a metabolic network with kinetic parameters.

    PubMed

    Adadi, Roi; Volkmer, Benjamin; Milo, Ron; Heinemann, Matthias; Shlomi, Tomer

    2012-01-01

    Identifying the factors that determine microbial growth rate under various environmental and genetic conditions is a major challenge of systems biology. While current genome-scale metabolic modeling approaches enable us to successfully predict a variety of metabolic phenotypes, including maximal biomass yield, the prediction of actual growth rate is a long standing goal. This gap stems from strictly relying on data regarding reaction stoichiometry and directionality, without accounting for enzyme kinetic considerations. Here we present a novel metabolic network-based approach, MetabOlic Modeling with ENzyme kineTics (MOMENT), which predicts metabolic flux rate and growth rate by utilizing prior data on enzyme turnover rates and enzyme molecular weights, without requiring measurements of nutrient uptake rates. The method is based on an identified design principle of metabolism in which enzymes catalyzing high flux reactions across different media tend to be more efficient in terms of having higher turnover numbers. Extending upon previous attempts to utilize kinetic data in genome-scale metabolic modeling, our approach takes into account the requirement for specific enzyme concentrations for catalyzing predicted metabolic flux rates, considering isozymes, protein complexes, and multi-functional enzymes. MOMENT is shown to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of various metabolic phenotypes in E. coli, including intracellular flux rates and changes in gene expression levels under different growth rates. Most importantly, MOMENT is shown to predict growth rates of E. coli under a diverse set of media that are correlated with experimental measurements, markedly improving upon existing state-of-the art stoichiometric modeling approaches. These results support the view that a physiological bound on cellular enzyme concentrations is a key factor that determines microbial growth rate.

  9. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  10. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  11. The Promise and Peril of Predictive Analytics in Higher Education: A Landscape Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ekowo, Manuela; Palmer, Iris

    2016-01-01

    Predictive analytics in higher education is a hot-button topic among educators and administrators as institutions strive to better serve students by becoming more data-informed. In this paper, the authors describe how predictive analytics are used in higher education to identify students who need extra support, steer students in courses they will…

  12. Predicting the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial matter

    SciTech Connect

    Reedy, R.C.

    1987-01-01

    The production rates of nuclides made by the galactic and solar cosmic rays are important in the interpretations of measurements made with lunar samples, meteorites, and cosmic spherules. Production rates of cosmogenic nuclides have been predicted by a variety of methods that are reviewed in this paper, ranging from systematic studies of one or a group of meteorites to purely theoretical calculations. Production rates can vary with the chemical composition and the preatmospheric depth of the sample and with the size and shape of the object. While the production systematics for cosmogenic nuclides are fairly well known, our ability to predict their production rates can be improved, with a corresponding increase in the scientific return. Additional detailed studies of cosmogenic nuclides in extraterrestrial objects are needed, especially for fairly small and very large objects. Nuclides made in simulation experiments and cross sections for many major nuclear reactions should be measured. Such studies are especially needed for the long-lived radionuclides that have only recently become readily measurable by accelerator mass spectrometry. 34 refs., 5 figs.

  13. Recovery rate prediction in lunar regolith simulant drilling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quan, Qiquan; Chen, Chongbin; Deng, Zongquan; Tang, Junyue; Jiang, Shengyuan

    2017-04-01

    Drilling and coring, as an effective way to acquire lunar regolith along the depth, is widely used in the field of planetary explorations. Because there is no relative sliding between the lunar regolith and the flexible tube, using the flexible tube coring method can acquire high recovery rate and keep the stratification of regolith samples. Very little work has been done to analyze the flexible tube coring process. A proper understanding of the coring process is necessary to develop the drilling strategy and verify whether the designed drill tool is appropriate. In this paper, two models are developed to analyze stress distribution in lunar regolith simulant during coring. Based on the developed models, a prediction method of recovery rate is developed to analyze the influence of the drilling parameters on the recovery rate. Comparison of the model calculation results with data of drilling and coring experiments demonstrated that the model based on the Terzaghi bearing theory can effectively predict the tendency when the recovery rate begins to decrease.

  14. Modified Rate-Theory Predictions in Comparison to Microstructural Data

    SciTech Connect

    Surh, M P; Okita, T; Wolfer, W G

    2003-11-03

    Standard rate theory methods have recently been combined with experimental microstructures to successfully reproduce measured swelling behavior in ternary steels around 400 C. Fit parameters have reasonable values except possibly for the recombination radius, R{sub c}, which can be larger than expected. Numerical simulations of void nucleation and growth reveal the importance additional recombination processes at unstable clusters. Such extra recombination may reduce the range of possible values for R{sub c}. A modified rate theory is presented here that includes the effect of these undetectably small defect clusters. The fit values for R{sub c} are not appreciably altered, as the modification has little effect on the model behavior in the late steady state. It slightly improves the predictions for early transient times, when the sink strength of stable voids and dislocations is relatively small. Standard rate theory successfully explains steady swelling behavior in high purity stainless steel.

  15. Variations in the Rate at Which Students Cross the Boundaries between Australian Vocational and Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moodie, Gavin

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the rate at which students are crossing the boundaries between Australian vocational and higher education. It finds that public universities admit a higher proportion of students on the basis of a vocational education qualification than do private colleges and that private colleges broadly do not admit a higher proportion of…

  16. Perceived Rates of Return to Higher Education: Further Evidence from Cyprus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria Eliophotou

    2008-01-01

    The paper provides new estimates of the perceived rates of return to higher education in Cyprus and compares them to previous estimates for the year 1994 in the same country. Both the elaborate and the short-cut methods are used in the estimation of rates of return. The estimated rates are entered as independent variables in logistic regression…

  17. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    PubMed

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated.

  18. FRB Event Rate Predictions for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Bera, Apurba; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Ramesh Bhat, N. D.; Chengalur, Jayaram N.

    2017-03-01

    We developed a generic formalism to estimate the event rate and the redshift distribution of Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) in our previous publication (Bera et al. 2016), considering FRBs are of an extragalactic origin. In this paper, we present (a) the predicted pulse widths of FRBs by considering two different scattering models, (b) the minimum total energy required to detect events, (c) the redshift distribution and (d) the detection rates of FRBs for the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA). The energy spectrum of FRBs is modelled as a power law with an exponent - α and our analysis spans a range -3≤ α≤5. We find that OWFA will be capable of detecting FRBs with α≥0. The redshift distribution and the event rates of FRBs are estimated by assuming two different energy distribution functions; a Delta function and a Schechter luminosity function with an exponent -2≤ γ≤2. We consider an empirical scattering model based on pulsar observations (model I) as well as a theoretical model (model II) expected for the intergalactic medium. The redshift distributions peak at a particular redshift z p for a fixed value of α, which lie in the range 0.3≤ z p ≤1 for the scattering model I and remain flat and extend up to high redshifts ( z≲5) for the scattering model II.

  19. Sediment rating curve & Co. - a contest of prediction methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francke, T.; Zimmermann, A.

    2012-04-01

    In spite of the recent technological progress in sediment monitoring, often the calculation of sediment yield (SSY) still relies on intermittent measurements because of the use of historic records, instrument-failure in continuous recording or financial constraints. Therefore, available measurements are usually inter- and even extrapolated using the sediment rating curve approach, which uses continuously available discharge data to predict sediment concentrations. Extending this idea by further aspects like the inclusion of other predictors (e.g. rainfall, discharge-characteristics, etc.), or the consideration of prediction uncertainty led to a variety of new methods. Now, with approaches such as Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Tree-based regression, GLMs, etc., the user is left to decide which method to apply. Trying multiple approaches is usually not an option, as considerable effort and expertise may be needed for their application. To establish a helpful guideline in selecting the most appropriate method for SSY-computation, we initiated a study to compare and rank available methods. Depending on problem attributes like hydrological and sediment regime, number of samples, sampling scheme, and availability of ancillary predictors, the performance of different methods is compared. Our expertise allowed us to "register" Random Forests, Quantile Regression Forests and GLMs for the contest. To include many different methods and ensure their sophisticated use we invite scientists that are willing to benchmark their favourite method(s) with us. The more diverse the participating methods are, the more exciting the contest will be.

  20. Higher Order Convergence Rates in Theory of Homogenization: Equations of Non-divergence Form

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sunghan; Lee, Ki-Ahm

    2016-03-01

    We establish higher order convergence rates in the theory of periodic homogenization of both linear and fully nonlinear uniformly elliptic equations of non-divergence form. The rates are achieved by involving higher order correctors which fix the errors occurring both in the interior and on the boundary layer of our physical domain. The proof is based on a viscosity method and a new regularity theory which captures the stability of the correctors with respect to the shape of our limit profile.

  1. Theoretical prediction of regression rates in swirl-injection hybrid rocket engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozawa, K.; Shimada, T.

    2016-07-01

    The authors theoretically and analytically predict what times regression rates of swirl injection hybrid rocket engines increase higher than the axial injection ones by estimating heat flux from boundary layer combustion to the fuel port. The schematic of engines is assumed as ones whose oxidizer is injected from the opposite side of the nozzle such as ones of Yuasa et al. propose. To simplify the estimation, we assume some hypotheses such as three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric flows have been assumed. The results of this prediction method are largely consistent with Yuasa's experiments data in the range of high swirl numbers.

  2. Policy and Prediction: The Case of Institutional Diversity in Romanian Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vlasceanu, Lazar; Hâncean, Marian-Gabriel

    2012-01-01

    Presenting key elements of post-1990 historical developments in the Romanian higher education system, the emphasis is put on recent (2011) policies of increasing higher education institutional differentiation. The view is that, in policy design, due attention should be paid to both historical roots and predicted developments. Building on an…

  3. Lifespan Mental Activity Predicts Diminished Rate of Hippocampal Atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Valenzuela, Michael J.; Sachdev, Perminder; Wen, Wei; Chen, Xiaohua; Brodaty, Henry

    2008-01-01

    Objective Epidemiological studies suggest that complex mental activity may reduce the risk for dementia, however an underlying mechanism remains unclear. Our objective was to determine whether individual differences in lifespan complex mental activity are linked to altered rates of hippocampal atrophy independent of global measures of neurodegeneration. Methods Thirty seven healthy older individuals had their complex mental activity levels estimated using the Lifetime of Experiences Questionnaire (LEQ) and completed serial MRI investigations at baseline and three years follow-up. Hippocampal volume and semi-automatic quantitation of whole brain volume (WBV) and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) were compared at both time points. Results Higher LEQ scores were correlated with hippocampal volume independent of covariates at the three year follow-up stage (r = 0.43, p = 0.012). Moreover, those with higher LEQ scores experienced less hippocampal atrophy over the follow-up period (r = 0.41, p = 0.02). High LEQ individuals had less than half the hippocampal volume decline of low LEQ individuals in a multivariate analysis (F = 4.47, p = 0.042). No parallel changes were found in measures of WBV and WMHs. Conclusions High level of complex mental activity across the lifespan was correlated with a reduced rate of hippocampal atrophy. This finding could not be explained by general differences in intracranial volume, larger hippocampi at baseline, presence of hypertensive disease, gender or low mood. Our results suggest that neuroprotection in medial temporal lobe may be one mechanism underlying the link between mental activity and lower rates of dementia observed in population-based studies. Additional studies are required to further explore this novel finding. PMID:18612379

  4. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. Revised

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of tuition increases in both private and public higher education that continually exceed inflation, coupled with the fact that the United States no longer leads the world in terms of the fraction of young adults who have college degrees, have focused attention on why costs keep increasing in higher education and what categories of higher…

  5. Beyond the Mincer Equation: The Internal Rate of Return to Higher Education in Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe; Guataquí, Juan Carlos; Guerra, José Alberto; Maldonado, Darío

    2014-01-01

    In order to present an estimation of the internal rate of return (IRR) to higher education in Colombia, we take advantage of recent updates on the methodological approach towards earnings equations. In order to overcome the criticism that surrounds interpretations of the education coefficient of Mincer equations as being the rate of return to…

  6. Predicted functional RNAs within coding regions constrain evolutionary rates of yeast proteins.

    PubMed

    Warden, Charles D; Kim, Seong-Ho; Yi, Soojin V

    2008-02-13

    Functional RNAs (fRNAs) are being recognized as an important regulatory component in biological processes. Interestingly, recent computational studies suggest that the number and biological significance of functional RNAs within coding regions (coding fRNAs) may have been underestimated. We hypothesized that such coding fRNAs will impose additional constraint on sequence evolution because the DNA primary sequence has to simultaneously code for functional RNA secondary structures on the messenger RNA in addition to the amino acid codons for the protein sequence. To test this prediction, we first utilized computational methods to predict conserved fRNA secondary structures within multiple species alignments of Saccharomyces sensu strico genomes. We predict that as much as 5% of the genes in the yeast genome contain at least one functional RNA secondary structure within their protein-coding region. We then analyzed the impact of coding fRNAs on the evolutionary rate of protein-coding genes because a decrease in evolutionary rate implies constraint due to biological functionality. We found that our predicted coding fRNAs have a significant influence on evolutionary rates (especially at synonymous sites), independent of other functional measures. Thus, coding fRNA may play a role on sequence evolution. Given that coding regions of humans and flies contain many more predicted coding fRNAs than yeast, the impact of coding fRNAs on sequence evolution may be substantial in genomes of higher eukaryotes.

  7. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    PubMed Central

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  8. Association between Higher Rates of Cardioprotective Drug Use and Survival in Patients on Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yuexin; Brooks, John M.; Wetmore, James B.; Shireman, Theresa I.

    2015-01-01

    Background While cardiovascular (CV) disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on chronic dialysis, utilization rates of cardioprotective drugs for dialysis patients remain low. This study sought to determine whether higher rates of cardioprotective drug use among dialysis patients might increase survival. Methods A retrospective cohort of incident dialysis patients (n = 50,468) with dual eligibility for U.S. Medicare and Medicaid was constructed using USRDS data linked with billing claims. Medication exposures included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), β-blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) prescribed within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The outcomes were one- and two-year survival and CV event-free survival. Variation in treatment rates based on local area practice styles were used as instruments in instrumental variable (IV) estimation, yielding average treatment effect estimates for patients whose treatment choices were affected by local area practice styles. Results Patients aged 65 years and older comprised 47.4% of the sample, while 59.5% were female and 35.0% were white. The utilization rate was 40.7% for ACEIs/ARBs, 43.0% for β-blockers, 50.7% for CCBs and 26.4% for statins. The local area practice style instruments were highly significantly related to cardioprotective drug use in dialysis patients (Chow-F values > 10). IV estimates showed only that higher rates of β-blockers increased one-year survival (β = 0.161, P-value = 0.020) and CV event-free survival (β = 0.189, P-value = 0.033), but that higher rates of CCBs decreased two-year CV event-free survival (β = -0.520, P-value = 0.009). Conclusions This study suggests that higher utilization rates of β-blockers might yield higher survival rates for dialysis patients. However, higher rates of the other drugs studied had no correlations with survival, and higher CCB rates

  9. Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process. Results Using a new database of 13 time-calibrated angiosperm phylogenies based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and controlling for extrinsic variables of life history and habitat, I evaluated several potential intrinsic causes of this correlation. Speciation rates (λ) and relative extinction rates (ε) were positively correlated with mean substitution rates, but were uncorrelated with substitution rate heterogeneity. It is unlikely that the positive diversification-substitution correlation is due to accelerated molecular evolution during speciation (e.g., via enhanced selection or drift), because punctuated increases in ITS rate (i.e., greater mean and variation in ITS rate for rapidly speciating clades) were not observed. Instead, fast molecular evolution likely increases speciation rate (via increased mutational variation as a substrate for selection and reproductive isolation) but also increases extinction (via mutational genetic load). Conclusions In general, these results predict that clades with higher background substitution rates may undergo successful diversification under new conditions while clades with lower substitution rates may experience decreased extinction during environmental stasis. PMID:20515493

  10. Preliminary data suggest rates of male military sexual trauma may be higher than previously reported.

    PubMed

    Sheppard, Sean C; Hickling, Edward J; Earleywine, Mitch; Hoyt, Tim; Russo, Amanda R; Donati, Matthew R; Kip, Kevin E

    2015-11-01

    Stigma associated with disclosing military sexual trauma (MST) makes estimating an accurate base rate difficult. Anonymous assessment may help alleviate stigma. Although anonymous research has found higher rates of male MST, no study has evaluated whether providing anonymity sufficiently mitigates the impact of stigma on accurate reporting. This study used the unmatched count technique (UCT), a form of randomized response techniques, to gain information about the accuracy of base rate estimates of male MST derived via anonymous assessment of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) combat veterans. A cross-sectional convenience sample of 180 OEF/OIF male combat veterans, recruited via online websites for military populations, provided data about history of MST via traditional anonymous self-report and the UCT. The UCT revealed a rate of male MST more than 15 times higher than the rate derived via traditional anonymous assessment (1.1% vs. 17.2%). These data suggest that anonymity does not adequately mitigate the impact of stigma on disclosure of male MST. Results, though preliminary, suggest that published rates of male MST may substantially underestimate the true rate of this problem. The UCT has significant potential to improve base rate estimation of sensitive behaviors in the military.

  11. Attempting to Predict Withdrawal from Higher Education Using Demographic, Psychological and Educational Measures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charlton, John P.; Barrow, Corinne; Hornby-Atkinson, Pat

    2006-01-01

    Demographic, psychological and secondary level examination measures were obtained at the start of undergraduate courses in an attempt to predict first-year higher education (HE) withdrawal. As usual, withdrawal was greatest for males. Overall, intrinsic motivation and independent study expectations were better predictors of withdrawal than…

  12. Predicting Academic Success in Higher Education: What's More Important than Being Smart?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kappe, Rutger; van der Flier, Henk

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the combined predictive validity of intelligence and personality factors on multiple measures of academic achievement. Students in a college of higher education in the Netherlands (N = 137) completed a survey that measured intelligence, the Big Five personality traits, motivation, and four specific personality traits.…

  13. Validity of predictive equations for basal metabolic rate in Japanese adults.

    PubMed

    Miyake, Rieko; Tanaka, Shigeho; Ohkawara, Kazunori; Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko; Hikihara, Yuki; Taguri, Emiko; Kayashita, Jun; Tabata, Izumi

    2011-01-01

    Many predictive equations for basal metabolic rate (BMR) based on anthropometric measurements, age, and sex have been developed, mainly for healthy Caucasians. However, it has been reported that many of these equations, used widely, overestimate BMR not only for Asians, but also for Caucasians. The present study examined the accuracy of several predictive equations for BMR in Japanese subjects. In 365 healthy Japanese male and female subjects, aged 18 to 79 y, BMR was measured in the post-absorptive state using a mask and Douglas bag. Six predictive equations were examined. Total error was used as an index of the accuracy of each equation's prediction. Predicted BMR values by Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Japan-DRI), Adjusted Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Adjusted-DRI), and Ganpule equations were not significantly different from the measured BMR in either sex. On the other hand, Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization/United Nations University equations were significantly higher than the measured BMR in both sexes. The prediction error by Japan-DRI, Adjusted-DRI, and Harris-Benedict equations was significantly correlated with body weight in both sexes. Total error using the Ganpule equation was low in both males and females (125 and 99 kcal/d, respectively). In addition, total error using the Adjusted-DRI equation was low in females (95 kcal/d). Thus, the Ganpule equation was the most accurate in predicting BMR in our healthy Japanese subjects, because the difference between the predicted and measured BMR was relatively small, and body weight had no effect on the prediction error.

  14. Does the Economic Crisis Have an Influence on the Higher Education Dropout Rate?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leão Fernandes, Graça; Chagas Lopes, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    This research aims to identify the effects of the economic crisis on higher education (HE) dropout rates at Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG)--Universidade de Lisboa, after having controlled for individual characteristics, family background, High School and HE trajectories. Our main hypothesis is that the economic crisis induces…

  15. 5 CFR 591.104 - Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Higher initial maximum uniform allowance rate. 591.104 Section 591.104 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE... initial year a new style or type of minimum basic uniform is required for a category of employees,...

  16. Retention in Higher Education: Faculty and Student Perceptions of Retention Programs and Factors Impacting Attrition Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mansfield, Malinda; O'Leary, Erin; Webb, Shekeita

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine faculty and student perceptions of what factors are contributing to drop-out rates in a Northern Indiana higher educational facility and to study whether or not the drop-out prevention programs that are in place are effective. Survey links were sent out to all adjuncts and some full-time faculty at a local…

  17. Dynamics of Rate of Returns for Postgraduate Education in Taiwan: The Impact of Higher Education Expansion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Hai; Lin, Chun-Hung A.; Lin, Chien-Ru

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyzes the dynamics of rate of returns for postgraduate education and the determinants of wage premiums for postgraduate labor, especially for the impact of higher education expansions, in terms of quantity and quality, since the late 1990s in Taiwan. Utilizing quasi-panel data over the 1990-2004 period and employing the double fixed…

  18. Slow infusion rate of doxorubicin induces higher pro-inflammatory cytokine production.

    PubMed

    Tien, Chin-Chieh; Peng, Yi-Chi; Yang, Fwu-Lin; Subeq, Yi-Maun; Lee, Ru-Ping

    2016-11-01

    Different infusion rates of doxorubicin (DOX) have been used for treating human malignancies. Organ toxicity after DOX infusion is a major issue in treatment disruption. However, whether different DOX infusion rates induce different toxicity is still unknown. In this study, we examined the toxicity effects of different DOX infusion rates in the early phase of organ toxicity. Thirty-six rats were randomly divided into 5-, 15-, and 30-min infusion rate groups. A single dose of DOX (8.3 mg/kg, I.V.) was administered at different infusion rates. Blood samples were collected from the femoral artery at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, 36, and 48 h after DOX administration. The blood cell count and blood biochemistry were analyzed. The liver, kidney, and heart were removed for pathological examinations after the rats were sacrificed. Our findings show that the 30-min group had higher injury markers in the liver (glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase and glutamic pyruvic transaminase), kidneys (blood urea nitrogen and creatinine), and heart (creatine phosphokinase-MB and lactate dehydrogenase), and had higher tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin 6 levels than did the other groups. The 30-min group also had more severe damage according to the pathological examinations. In conclusion, slower infusion of DOX induced a higher inflammatory response and greater organ damage.

  19. Alcohol-Dependent Individuals Discount Sex at Higher Rates than Controls

    PubMed Central

    Jarmolowicz, David P.; Bickel, Warren K.; Gatchalian, Kirstin M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Research on delay discounting has expanded our understanding of substance dependence in many ways. Recently, orderly discounting of sexual rewards has been demonstrated in both substance-dependent individuals, and healthy controls. Less clear, however, is if rates of sexual discounting are higher than controls in alcohol-dependent-individuals. Methods 20 Alcohol-dependent individuals and 21 healthy control participants completed two delay-discounting tasks. One task involved monetary rewards, whereas the other involved the discounting of sexual rewards (i.e., number of sex acts). Results Alcohol dependent individuals discounted sexual rewards at significantly higher rates than did controls. There was a trend towards, but not a similarly significant relation for the discounting of monetary rewards. Conclusions Rates of sexual discounting are elevated in alcohol dependent individuals. If this relation is replicated in other at risk populations, the rapid devaluation of sexual rewards may be a behavioral marker of impulsive sexual choices. PMID:23312341

  20. Reliability of single-item ratings of quality in higher education: a replication.

    PubMed

    Ginns, Paul; Barrie, Simon

    2004-12-01

    Single-item ratings of the quality of instructors or subjects are widely used by higher education institutions, yet such ratings are commonly assumed to have inadequate psychometric properties. Recent research has demonstrated that reliability of such ratings can indeed be estimated, using either the correction for attenuation formula or factor analytic methods. This study replicates prior research on the reliability of single-item ratings of quality of instruction, using a different, more student-focussed approach to teaching and learning evaluation than used by previous researchers. Class average data from 1,097 classes, representing responses from 59,815 students, were analysed. At the "class" level of analysis, both methods of estimation suggested the single item of quality had high reliability: .96 using the correction for attenuation formula, and .94 using the factor analytic method. An alternative method of calculating reliability, which takes into account the hierarchical nature of the data, likewise suggested high estimated reliability (.92) of the single-item rating. These results indicate the suitability of the overall class rating for quality improvement in higher education, with a large sample.

  1. ESTER HYDROLYSIS RATE CONSTANT PREDICTION FROM INFRARED INTERFEROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method for predicting reactivity parameters of organic chemicals from spectroscopic data is being developed to assist in assessing the environmental fate of pollutants. he prototype system, which employs multiple linear regression analysis using selected points from the Fourier...

  2. Brain mechanisms for predictive control by switching internal models: implications for higher-order cognitive functions.

    PubMed

    Imamizu, Hiroshi; Kawato, Mitsuo

    2009-07-01

    Humans can guide their actions toward the realization of their intentions. Flexible, rapid and precise realization of intentions and goals relies on the brain learning to control its actions on external objects and to predict the consequences of this control. Neural mechanisms that mimic the input-output properties of our own body and other objects can be used to support prediction and control, and such mechanisms are called internal models. We first summarize functional neuroimaging, behavioral and computational studies of the brain mechanisms related to acquisition, modular organization, and the predictive switching of internal models mainly for tool use. These mechanisms support predictive control and flexible switching of intentional actions. We then review recent studies demonstrating that internal models are crucial for the execution of not only immediate actions but also higher-order cognitive functions, including optimization of behaviors toward long-term goals, social interactions based on prediction of others' actions and mental states, and language processing. These studies suggest that a concept of internal models can consistently explain the neural mechanisms and computational principles needed for fundamental sensorimotor functions as well as higher-order cognitive functions.

  3. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    PubMed Central

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2013-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed. PMID:25152877

  4. Implementation of Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Micromechanics Analysis of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Heung Soo; Zhu, Linfa; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear response of composite plates under large strain and high strain rate loading. A recently developed strain dependent micromechanics model is extended to account for the shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of shear deformation effects are investigated to improve the development strain rate dependent micromechanics model. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio is developed. The revised micromechanics model is implemented into higher order laminate theory. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate transverse shear effects during impact.

  5. Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeager, Stephen G.; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan

    2015-12-01

    Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions.

  6. A Study of the Predictability of School District Bond Ratings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vedra, Kenneth David

    School district bond ratings, issued on request by Standard and Poor's Corporation or Moody's Investors Service, hold implications for school districts' financial management. Ultimately, the bond rating assigned is a factor affecting the total cost of the bond issuance, related to the principal and interest payments over the life of the debt. A…

  7. Predicting Supervisor, Peer, and Self Ratings of Intern Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kegel-Flom, Penelope

    1975-01-01

    Relationships between the ratings of interns by their supervisors, their peers, and the interns themselves on four dimensions are compared and analyzed in relationship to earlier measures of aptitude, achievement, and personality. Findings reported show supervisor ratings to be highest and admission variables to be unrelated to intern performance.…

  8. Background Factors Predicting Teacher Ratings of Children's School Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerr, M. Kaye

    This study examined background factors in children that influence teachers' ratings on the Classroom Adjustment Rating Scale (CARS). Sixteen classrooms in five schools were selected to include a range of socio-economic and cultural groupings from Inner London, England Primary Schools. Teachers used the CARS and an additional short scale of overall…

  9. Subalpine Pyrenees received higher nitrogen deposition than predicted by EMEP and CHIMERE chemistry-transport models

    PubMed Central

    Boutin, Marion; Lamaze, Thierry; Couvidat, Florian; Pornon, André

    2015-01-01

    Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) from the atmosphere is expected to be the third greatest driver of biodiversity loss by the year 2100. Chemistry-transport models are essential tools to estimate spatially explicit N deposition but the reliability of their predictions remained to be validated in mountains. We measured N deposition and air concentration over the subalpine Pyrenees. N deposition was found to range from 797 to 1,463 mg N m−2 year−1. These values were higher than expected from model predictions, especially for nitrate, which exceeded the estimations of EMEP by a factor of 2.6 and CHIMERE by 3.6. Our observations also displayed a reversed reduced-to-oxidized ratio in N deposition compared with model predictions. The results highlight that the subalpine Pyrenees are exposed to higher levels of N deposition than expected according to standard predictions and that these levels exceed currently recognized critical loads for most high-elevation habitats. Our study reveals a need to improve the evaluation of N deposition in mountains which are home to a substantial and original part of the world’s biodiversity. PMID:26255956

  10. Artificial Neural Network for Monthly Rainfall Rate Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purnomo, H. D.; Hartomo, K. D.; Prasetyo, S. Y. J.

    2017-03-01

    Rainfall rate forecasting plays an important role in various human activities. Rainfall forecasting is a challenging task due to the uncertainty of natural phenomena. In this paper, two neural network models are proposed for monthly rainfall rate forecasting. The performance of the proposed model is assesses based on monthly rainfall rate in Ampel, Boyolali, from 2001-2013. The experiment results show that the accuracy of the first model is much better than the accuracy of the second model. Its average accuracy is just above 98%, while the accuracy of the second model is approximately 75%. In additional, both models tend to perform better when the fluctuation of rainfall is low.

  11. Acoustic emission strand burning technique for motor burning rate prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christensen, W. N.

    1978-01-01

    An acoustic emission (AE) method is being used to measure the burning rate of solid propellant strands. This method has a precision of 0.5% and excellent burning rate correlation with both subscale and large rocket motors. The AE procedure burns the sample under water and measures the burning rate from the acoustic output. The acoustic signal provides a continuous readout during testing, which allows complete data analysis rather than the start-stop clockwires used by the conventional method. The AE method helps eliminate such problems as inhibiting the sample, pressure increase and temperature rise, during testing.

  12. Depression and Anxiety Following Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Are Associated With Higher Six-Month Unemployment Rates.

    PubMed

    Al Yassin, Altaib; Ouyang, Bichun; Temes, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Although survival has dramatically improved following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), the reasons for persistent high rates of unemployment in this population remain unknown. Retrospective review for medical records of patients with aSAH admitted to Rush University Medical Center was undertaken. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to test the association of either depression or anxiety with the 6-month employment status. Among the 29 patients who developed depression or anxiety, 86.2% were unemployed at 6 months following their aSAH. After controlling for confounding factors, anxiety and depression were significantly associated with higher 6-month unemployment rates (odds ratio [OR]=0.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.02-0.3, p=0.0002). Depression and anxiety are common following aSAH and are associated with increased unemployment rates 6 months post aSAH.

  13. Protein Thermodynamics Can Be Predicted Directly from Biological Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A.; Bowman, John P.; Ratkowsky, David A.; Olley, June; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122°C). The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model. PMID:24787650

  14. Protein thermodynamics can be predicted directly from biological growth rates.

    PubMed

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A; Bowman, John P; Ratkowsky, David A; Olley, June; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122 °C). The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA). This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model.

  15. Spontaneous eye blink rate predicts learning from negative, but not positive, outcomes.

    PubMed

    Slagter, Heleen A; Georgopoulou, Katerina; Frank, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    A large body of research shows that striatal dopamine critically affects the extent to which we learn from the positive and negative outcomes of our decisions. In this study, we examined the relationship between reinforcement learning and spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR), a cheap, non-invasive, and easy to obtain marker of striatal dopaminergic activity. Based on previous findings from pharmacological and patient studies, our main prediction was that in healthy individuals, low blink rates (and concomitant lower striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with better learning from negative choices, while high blink rates (and concomitant higher striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with learning from positive choices. Behavioral analyses showed that in healthy individuals, lower blink rates were indeed associated with greater learning from negative outcomes, indicating that lower dopamine levels per se may enhance avoidance learning. Yet, higher EBR was not associated with better learning from positive outcomes. These observations support the notion that sEBR reflects tonic dopamine levels, and suggest that sEBR may specifically relate to dopamine D2 receptor function, given the importance of the dopaminergic D2 pathway in avoidance learning. More generally, these findings highlight the usefulness of sEBR as a non-invasive and cheap method for assessing the relationship between striatal dopaminergic function and behavior.

  16. The Utility of Thin Slice Ratings for Predicting Language Growth in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walton, Katherine M.; Ingersoll, Brooke R.

    2016-01-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5?min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and…

  17. Cross-validation of recent and longstanding resting metabolic rate prediction equations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Resting metabolic rate (RMR) measurement is time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Prediction equations provide an easy method to estimate RMR; however, their accuracy likely varies across individuals. Understanding the factors that influence predicted RMR accuracy at the individual lev...

  18. Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

    1997-01-01

    Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

  19. Higher Crash and Near-Crash Rates in Teenaged Drivers With Lower Cortisol Response

    PubMed Central

    Ouimet, Marie Claude; Brown, Thomas G.; Guo, Feng; Klauer, Sheila G.; Simons-Morton, Bruce G.; Fang, Youjia; Lee, Suzanne E.; Gianoulakis, Christina; Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Road traffic crashes are one of the leading causes of injury and death among teenagers worldwide. Better understanding of the individual pathways to driving risk may lead to better-targeted intervention in this vulnerable group. OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between cortisol, a neurobiological marker of stress regulation linked to risky behavior, and driving risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Naturalistic Teenage Driving Study was designed to continuously monitor the driving behavior of teenagers by instrumenting vehicles with kinematic sensors, cameras, and a global positioning system. During 2006–2008, a community sample of 42 newly licensed 16-year-old volunteer participants in the United States was recruited and driving behavior monitored. It was hypothesized in teenagers that higher cortisol response to stress is associated with (1) lower crash and near-crash (CNC) rates during their first 18 months of licensure and (2) faster reduction in CNC rates over time. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants’ cortisol response during a stress-inducing task was assessed at baseline, followed by measurement of their involvement in CNCs and driving exposure during their first 18 months of licensure. Mixed-effect Poisson longitudinal regression models were used to examine the association between baseline cortisol response and CNC rates during the follow-up period. RESULTS Participants with a higher baseline cortisol response had lower CNC rates during the follow-up period (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.93; 95%CI, 0.88–0.98) and faster decrease in CNC rates over time (exponential of the regression coefficient, 0.98; 95%, CI, 0.96–0.99). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Cortisol is a neurobiological marker associated with teenaged-driving risk. As in other problem-behavior fields, identification of an objective marker of teenaged-driving risk promises the development of more personalized intervention approaches. PMID:24710522

  20. Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Roop N.; Jones, Jim J.; Rochelle, William C.

    1992-01-01

    The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

  1. Higher mortality rate in patients hospitalised for acute pulmonary embolism during weekends.

    PubMed

    Gallerani, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Ageno, Walter; Dentali, Francesco; Manfredini, Roberto

    2011-07-01

    The management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is often challenging and requires specific medical expertise, diagnostic techniques and therapeutic options that may not be available in all hospitals throughout the entire week. The aim of our study was to evaluate whether or not an association exists between weekday or weekend admission and mortality for patients hospitalised with acute PE. Using routinely collected hospital administrative data, we examined patients discharged with a diagnosis of PE from the hospitals of the Emilia- Romagna Region in Italy (January 1999-December 2009). The risk of in-hospital death was calculated for admissions at the weekend and compared to weekday admissions. Of a total of 26,560 PEs, 6,788 (25.6%) had been admitted during weekends. PE admissions were most frequent on Mondays (15.8%) and less frequent on Saturdays and Sundays/holidays (12.8%) (p<0.001). Weekend admissions were associated with significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality than weekday admissions (28% vs. 24.8%) (p<0.001). The risk of weekend admission and in-hospital mortality was higher after adjusting for sender, hospital characteristics, and the Charlson co-morbidity index. In conclusion, hospitalisation for PE on weekends seems to be associated with a significantly higher mortality rate than on weekdays. Further research is needed to investigate the reasons for this observed difference in mortality in order to try and implement future strategies that ensure an adequate level of care throughout the entire week.

  2. Speed versus endurance tradeoff in plants: Leaves with higher photosynthetic rates show stronger seasonal declines.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Sack, Lawren; Cao, Kun-Fang; Wei, Xue-Mei; Li, Nan

    2017-02-10

    We tested for a tradeoff across species between plant maximum photosynthetic rate and the ability to maintain photosynthesis under adverse conditions in the unfavorable season. Such a trade-off would be consistent with the observed trade-off between maximum speed and endurance in athletes and some animals that has been explained by cost-benefit theory. This trend would have importance for the general understanding of leaf design, and would simplify models of annual leaf carbon relations. We tested for such a trade-off using a database analysis across vascular plants and using an experimental approach for 29 cycad species, representing an ancient plant lineage with diversified evergreen leaves. In both tests, a higher photosynthetic rate per mass or per area in the favorable season was associated with a stronger absolute or percent decline in the unfavorable season. We resolved a possible mechanism based on biomechanics and nitrogen allocation; cycads with high leaf toughness (leaf mass per area) and higher investment in leaf construction than in physiological function (C/N ratio) tended to have lower warm season photosynthesis but less depression in the cool season. We propose that this trade-off, consistent with cost-benefit theory, represents a significant physio-phenological constraint on the diversity and seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic rate.

  3. Speed versus endurance tradeoff in plants: Leaves with higher photosynthetic rates show stronger seasonal declines

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yong-Jiang; Sack, Lawren; Cao, Kun-Fang; Wei, Xue-Mei; Li, Nan

    2017-01-01

    We tested for a tradeoff across species between plant maximum photosynthetic rate and the ability to maintain photosynthesis under adverse conditions in the unfavorable season. Such a trade-off would be consistent with the observed trade-off between maximum speed and endurance in athletes and some animals that has been explained by cost-benefit theory. This trend would have importance for the general understanding of leaf design, and would simplify models of annual leaf carbon relations. We tested for such a trade-off using a database analysis across vascular plants and using an experimental approach for 29 cycad species, representing an ancient plant lineage with diversified evergreen leaves. In both tests, a higher photosynthetic rate per mass or per area in the favorable season was associated with a stronger absolute or percent decline in the unfavorable season. We resolved a possible mechanism based on biomechanics and nitrogen allocation; cycads with high leaf toughness (leaf mass per area) and higher investment in leaf construction than in physiological function (C/N ratio) tended to have lower warm season photosynthesis but less depression in the cool season. We propose that this trade-off, consistent with cost-benefit theory, represents a significant physio-phenological constraint on the diversity and seasonal dynamics of photosynthetic rate. PMID:28186201

  4. Predicting the College Attendance Rate of Graduating High School Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoover, Donald R.

    1990-01-01

    An important element of school counseling is providing assessments on the collective future needs and activities of a graduating school class. The College Attendance Rate (CAR) is defined here as the proportion of seniors graduating from a given high school, during a given year, that will enroll full-time at an academic college sometime during the…

  5. Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

    PubMed

    Tran, Lucy A P

    2016-04-01

    Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

  6. Rabies Vaccination: Higher Failure Rates in Imported Dogs than in those Vaccinated in Italy.

    PubMed

    Rota Nodari, E; Alonso, S; Mancin, M; De Nardi, M; Hudson-Cooke, S; Veggiato, C; Cattoli, G; De Benedictis, P

    2017-03-01

    The current European Union (EU) legislation decrees that pets entering the EU from a rabies-infected third country have to obtain a satisfactory virus-neutralizing antibody level, while those moving within the EU require only rabies vaccination as the risk of moving a rabid pet within the EU is considered negligible. A number of factors driving individual variations in dog vaccine response have been previously reported, including a high rate of vaccine failure in puppies, especially those subject to commercial transport. A total of 21 001 observations collected from dogs (2006-2012) vaccinated in compliance with the current EU regulations were statistically analysed to assess the effect of different risk factors related to rabies vaccine efficacy. Within this framework, we were able to compare the vaccination failure rate in a group of dogs entering the Italian border from EU and non-EU countries to those vaccinated in Italy prior to international travel. Our analysis identified that cross-breeds and two breed categories showed high vaccine success rates, while Beagles and Boxers were the least likely to show a successful response to vaccination (88.82% and 90.32%, respectively). Our analysis revealed diverse performances among the commercially available vaccines, in terms of serological peak windows, and marked differences according to geographical area. Of note, we found a higher vaccine failure rate in imported dogs (13.15%) than in those vaccinated in Italy (5.89%). Our findings suggest that the choice of vaccine may influence the likelihood of an animal achieving a protective serological level and that time from vaccination to sampling should be considered when interpreting serological results. A higher vaccine failure in imported compared to Italian dogs highlights the key role that border controls still have in assessing the full compliance of pet movements with EU legislation to minimize the risk of rabies being reintroduced into a disease-free area.

  7. Slat Noise Predictions Using Higher-Order Finite-Difference Methods on Overset Grids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Housman, Jeffrey A.; Kiris, Cetin

    2016-01-01

    Computational aeroacoustic simulations using the structured overset grid approach and higher-order finite difference methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are presented for slat noise predictions. The simulations are part of a collaborative study comparing noise generation mechanisms between a conventional slat and a Krueger leading edge flap. Simulation results are compared with experimental data acquired during an aeroacoustic test in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. Details of the structured overset grid, numerical discretization, and turbulence model are provided.

  8. Could heart rate variability predict outcome in patients with severe head injury? A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Rapenne, T; Moreau, D; Lenfant, F; Vernet, M; Boggio, V; Cottin, Y; Freysz, M

    2001-07-01

    Despite major improvements in the resuscitation of patients with head injury, the outcome of patients with head trauma often remains poor and difficult to establish. Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is a noninvasive tool used to measure autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate whether HRV analysis might be a useful adjunct for predicting outcome in patients with severe head injury. Twenty patients with severe head trauma (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] rate variability was assessed, in both time domain and spectral domain. The authors initially compared (on Day 1) HRV in patients who progressed to brain death to HRV in survivors; then during the awakening period compared HRV in surviving patients with good recovery (GCS >or= 10) to HRV in patients characterized by a worsened neurologic state (GCS < 10). Statistical analysis used the Kruskal-Wallis test, P < .05. To assess whether HRV could predict evolution to brain death, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated the day after trauma for Total Power, natural logarithm of high-frequency component of spectral analysis (LnHF), natural logarithm of low-frequency component of spectral analysis (LnLF), and root mean square for successive interval differences (rMSSD). Seven patients died between Day 1 and Day 5 after trauma. Six of those had progressed to brain death. In these six patients, at Day 1, Global HRV and parasympathetic tone were significantly higher. Referring to the area under the rMSSD ROC curve, HRV might provide useful information in predicting early evolution of patients with severe head trauma. During the awakening period, global HRV and the parasympathetic tone were significantly lower in the worsened neurologic state group. In conclusion, HRV could be helpful as a predictor of imminent brain death

  9. Predicting Fruit Fly's Sensing Rate From Insect Flight Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jane; Chang, Song

    2013-11-01

    Without sensory feedbacks, flies cannot fly. Exactly how sensory feedback controls work in flying insects is a complex puzzle to solve. What do insects measure in order to stabilize their flight? What kinds of neural computations and muscle activities are involved in order to correct their flight course or to turn? How often and how fast do animals adjust their wings to remain stable? To understand the algorithms used by insects to control their dynamic instability, we have developed a simulation tool to study flapping flight, where motions of the insect body and wings are coupled instantaneously. To stabilize the flight in the simulation, we construct a control algorithm that modulates wing motion based on discrete measurements of the body-pitch orientation. Our simulations give theoretical bounds both on the sensing rate and the delay time between sensing and actuation. Interpreting these findings together with experimental results on fruit flies' reaction time and sensory motor reflexes, we give a sharper bound on the sensing rate and further reason that fruit flies sense their kinematic states every wing-beat in order to stabilize their flight.

  10. Augmenting data rate performance for higher order modulation in triangular index profile multicore fiber interconnect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Jitendra K.; Priye, Vishnu; Rahman, B. M. A.

    2016-07-01

    A triangular profile multicore fiber (MCF) optical interconnect (OI) is investigated to augment performance that typically degrades at high data rates for higher order modulation in a short reach transmission system. Firstly, probability density functions (PDFs) variation with inter-core crosstalk is calculated for 8-core MCF OI with different index profile in the core and it was observed that the triangular profile MCF OI is the most crosstalk tolerant. Next, symbol error probability (SEP) for higher order quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) modulated signal due to inter-core crosstalk is analytically obtained and their dependence on typical characteristic parameters are examined. Further, numerical simulations are carried out to compare the error performance of QPSK for step index and triangular index MCF OI by generating eye diagram at 40 Gbps per channel. Finally, it is shown that MCF OI with triangular index profile supporting QPSK has double spectral efficiency with tolerable trade off in SEP as compared with those of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) at high data rates which is scalable up to 5 Tbps.

  11. Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumazawa, T.; Ogata, Y.; Kimura, Y.; Maeda, K.; Kobayashi, A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed several times since 1980s monitored by strain-meters located nearby. Major swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic and preseismic significant sizes of a volumetric strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013), and have found the followings. The modified volumetric strain change data by removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps have much higher cross-correlations to the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate change of the ETAS, and further the strain changes precede the background seismicity by lag of about a day. This relation suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms in this region. References Earthquake Research Committee (2010). Report on "Prediction of seismic activity in the Izu Eastern Region" (in Japanese), http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/yosoku/izu/index.htm Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS model, J Geophys.Res. 118, 6165-6182.

  12. Eye blink rate predicts individual differences in pseudoneglect

    PubMed Central

    Slagter, Heleen A.; Davidson, Richard J.; Tomer, Rachel

    2010-01-01

    Most healthy individuals display a subtle spatial attentional bias, exhibiting relative inattention for stimuli on one side of the visual field, a phenomenon known as pseudoneglect. Prior work in animals and patients has implicated dopamine in spatial attention asymmetries. The current study therefore examined - in healthy individuals - the relationship between the attentional bias and spontaneous eye-blink rate (EBR), a putative measure of central dopaminergic function. We found that those individuals, who blinked more often under resting conditions, displayed greater preference for the right side of the visual display in a subsequent attention task. This finding may support the idea that the observed attentional bias in healthy individuals reflects asymmetries in dopaminergic circuits, and corroborates previous findings implicating dopamine in spatial attention. PMID:20036680

  13. A higher-than-predicted measurement of iron opacity at solar interior temperatures.

    PubMed

    Bailey, J E; Nagayama, T; Loisel, G P; Rochau, G A; Blancard, C; Colgan, J; Cosse, Ph; Faussurier, G; Fontes, C J; Gilleron, F; Golovkin, I; Hansen, S B; Iglesias, C A; Kilcrease, D P; MacFarlane, J J; Mancini, R C; Nahar, S N; Orban, C; Pain, J-C; Pradhan, A K; Sherrill, M; Wilson, B G

    2015-01-01

    Nearly a century ago it was recognized that radiation absorption by stellar matter controls the internal temperature profiles within stars. Laboratory opacity measurements, however, have never been performed at stellar interior conditions, introducing uncertainties in stellar models. A particular problem arose when refined photosphere spectral analysis led to reductions of 30-50 per cent in the inferred amounts of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in the Sun. Standard solar models using the revised element abundances disagree with helioseismic observations that determine the internal solar structure using acoustic oscillations. This could be resolved if the true mean opacity for the solar interior matter were roughly 15 per cent higher than predicted, because increased opacity compensates for the decreased element abundances. Iron accounts for a quarter of the total opacity at the solar radiation/convection zone boundary. Here we report measurements of wavelength-resolved iron opacity at electron temperatures of 1.9-2.3 million kelvin and electron densities of (0.7-4.0) × 10(22) per cubic centimetre, conditions very similar to those in the solar region that affects the discrepancy the most: the radiation/convection zone boundary. The measured wavelength-dependent opacity is 30-400 per cent higher than predicted. This represents roughly half the change in the mean opacity needed to resolve the solar discrepancy, even though iron is only one of many elements that contribute to opacity.

  14. Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

    PubMed

    Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

    2016-09-06

    Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies.

  15. Model predictions of higher-order normal alkane ignition from dilute shock-tube experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotavera, B.; Petersen, E. L.

    2013-07-01

    Shock-induced oxidation of two higher-order linear alkanes was measured using a heated shock tube facility. Experimental overlap in stoichiometric ignition delay times obtained under dilute (99 % Ar) conditions near atmospheric pressure was observed in the temperature-dependent ignition trends of n-nonane ( n-C9H20) and n-undecane ( n-C11H24). Despite the overlap, model predictions of ignition using two different detailed chemical kinetics mechanisms show discrepancies relative to both the measured data as well as to one another. The present study therefore focuses on the differences observed in the modeled, high-temperature ignition delay times of higher-order n-alkanes, which are generally regarded to have identical ignition behavior for carbon numbers above C7. Comparisons are drawn using experimental data from the present study and from recent work by the authors relative to two existing chemical kinetics mechanisms. Time histories from the shock-tube OH* measurements are also compared to the model predictions; a double-peaked structure observed in the data shows that the time response of the detector electronics is crucial for properly capturing the first, incipient peak near time zero. Calculations using the two mechanisms were carried out at the dilution level employed in the shock-tube experiments for lean {({φ} = 0.5)}, stoichiometric, and rich {({φ} = 2.0)} equivalence ratios, 1230-1620 K, and for both 1.5 and 10 atm. In general, the models show differing trends relative to both measured data and to one another, indicating that agreement among chemical kinetics models for higher-order n-alkanes is not consistent. For example, under certain conditions, one mechanism predicts the ignition delay times to be virtually identical between the n-nonane and n-undecane fuels (in fact, also for all alkanes between at least C8 and C12), which is in agreement with the experiment, while the other mechanism predicts the larger fuels to ignite progressively more slowly.

  16. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    PubMed

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-17

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts.

  17. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being

    PubMed Central

    Ford, Brett Q.; Dmitrieva, Julia O.; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A.; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B.

    2015-01-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, we propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed – and thus pursued – in relatively socially-engaged ways. In four geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (U.S., Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants’ well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially-engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the U.S., did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially-engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness. PMID:26347945

  18. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-01

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts.

  19. Does a Strong El Niño Imply a Higher Predictability of Extreme Drought?

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shanshan; Yuan, Xing; Li, Yaohui

    2017-01-01

    The devastating North China drought in the summer of 2015 was roughly captured by a dynamical seasonal climate forecast model with a good prediction of the 2015/16 big El Niño. This raises a question of whether strong El Niños imply higher predictability of extreme droughts. Here we show that a strong El Niño does not necessarily result in an extreme drought, but it depends on whether the El Niño evolves synergistically with Eurasian spring snow cover reduction to trigger a positive summer Eurasian teleconnection (EU) pattern that favors anomalous northerly and air sinking over North China. The dynamical forecast model that only well represents the El Niño underpredicts the drought severity, while a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach that combines both the low- and high-latitudes precursors is more skillful at long lead. In a warming future, the vanishing cryosphere should be better understood to improve predictability of extreme droughts. PMID:28094328

  20. Culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness predicts higher or lower well-being.

    PubMed

    Ford, Brett Q; Dmitrieva, Julia O; Heller, Daniel; Chentsova-Dutton, Yulia; Grossmann, Igor; Tamir, Maya; Uchida, Yukiko; Koopmann-Holm, Birgit; Floerke, Victoria A; Uhrig, Meike; Bokhan, Tatiana; Mauss, Iris B

    2015-12-01

    Pursuing happiness can paradoxically impair well-being. Here, the authors propose the potential downsides to pursuing happiness may be specific to individualistic cultures. In collectivistic (vs. individualistic) cultures, pursuing happiness may be more successful because happiness is viewed--and thus pursued--in relatively socially engaged ways. In 4 geographical regions that vary in level of collectivism (United States, Germany, Russia, East Asia), we assessed participants' well-being, motivation to pursue happiness, and to what extent they pursued happiness in socially engaged ways. Motivation to pursue happiness predicted lower well-being in the United States, did not predict well-being in Germany, and predicted higher well-being in Russia and in East Asia. These cultural differences in the link between motivation to pursue happiness and well-being were explained by cultural differences in the socially engaged pursuit of happiness. These findings suggest that culture shapes whether the pursuit of happiness is linked with better or worse well-being, perhaps via how people pursue happiness.

  1. Pedestrian crashes: higher injury severity and mortality rate for light truck vehicles compared with passenger vehicles

    PubMed Central

    Roudsari, B; Mock, C; Kaufman, R; Grossman, D; Henary, B; Crandall, J

    2004-01-01

    Introduction: During the last two decades changes in vehicle design and increase in the number of the light truck vehicles (LTVs) and vans have led to changes in pedestrian injury profile. Due to the dynamic nature of the pedestrian crashes biomechanical aspects of collisions can be better evaluated in field studies. Design and settings: The Pedestrian Crash Data Study, conducted from 1994 to 1998, provided a solid database upon which details and mechanism of pedestrian crashes can be investigated. Results: From 552 recorded cases in this database, 542 patients had complete injury related information, making a meaningful study of pedestrian crash characteristics possible. Pedestrians struck by LTVs had a higher risk (29%) of severe injuries (abbreviated injury scale ⩾4) compared with passenger vehicles (18%) (p = 0.02). After adjustment for pedestrian age and impact speed, LTVs were associated with 3.0 times higher risk of severe injuries (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26 to 7.29, p = 0.013). Mortality rate for pedestrians struck by LTVs (25%) was two times higher than that for passenger vehicles (12%) (p<0.001). Risk of death for LTV crashes after adjustment for pedestrian age and impact speed was 3.4 times higher than that for passenger vehicles (95% CI 1.45 to 7.81, p = 0.005). Conclusion: Vehicle type strongly influences risk of severe injury and death to pedestrian. This may be due in part to the front end design of the vehicle. Hence vehicle front end design, especially for LTVs, should be considered in future motor vehicle safety standards. PMID:15178671

  2. Principles, approaches, and challenges for predicting protein aggregation rates and shelf life.

    PubMed

    Weiss, William F; Young, Teresa M; Roberts, Christopher J

    2009-04-01

    Control and prevention of unwanted aggregation for therapeutic proteins is a ubiquitous hurdle during biopharmaceutical product manufacture, storage, shipping, and administration. Methods to predict the relative or absolute rates of aggregation are therefore of great practical interest in biopharmaceutical research and development. Aggregation is often well-described as a multi-stage process involving unfolding or misfolding of free monomers, along with one or more assembly steps to form soluble or insoluble oligomers or higher-molecular-weight species. This report reviews the current state of the art in experimental and practical theoretical approaches that attempt to predict in vitro protein aggregation rates or propensities relevant to pharmaceutical proteins. Most available approaches fall within four primary categories. The principles and assumptions underlying each category are reviewed, along with advantages and limitations in each case. The importance of appropriate experimental techniques and models to probe and quantify the thermodynamics and/or dynamics of multiple steps or stages within the overall aggregation process is stressed. The primary focus is on aggregation in solution, relevant to parenteral dosage forms. Additional challenges are briefly reviewed.

  3. Climatological observations and predicted sublimation rates at Lake Hoare, Antarctica.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clow, G.D.; McKay, C.P.; Simmons, G.M.; Wharton, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    In December 1985, an automated meteorological station was established at Lake Hoare in the dry valley region of Antarctica. Here, we report on the first year-round observations available for any site in Taylor Valley. This dataset augments the year-round data obtained at Lake Vanda (Wright Valley) by winter-over crews during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The mean annual solar flux at Lake Hoare was 92 W m-2 during 1986, the mean air temperature -17.3 degrees C, and the mean 3-m wind speed 3.3 m s-1. The local climate is controlled by the wind regime during the 4-month sunless winter and by seasonal and diurnal variations in the incident solar flux during the remainder of the year. Temperature increases of 20 degrees-30 degrees C are frequently observed during the winter due to strong fo??hn winds descending from the Polar Plateau. A model incorporating nonsteady molecular diffusion into Kolmogorov-scale eddies in the interfacial layer and similarity-theory flux-profiles in the surface sublayer, is used to determine the rate of ice sublimation from the acquired meteorological data. Despite the frequent occurrence of strong winter fo??hns, the bulk of the annual ablation occurs during the summer due to elevated temperatures and persistent moderate winds. The annual ablation from Lake Hoare is estimated to have been 35.0 +/- 6.3 cm for 1986.

  4. From Plants to Birds: Higher Avian Predation Rates in Trees Responding to Insect Herbivory

    PubMed Central

    Mäntylä, Elina; Alessio, Giorgio A.; Blande, James D.; Heijari, Juha; Holopainen, Jarmo K.; Laaksonen, Toni; Piirtola, Panu; Klemola, Tero

    2008-01-01

    Background An understanding of the evolution of potential signals from plants to the predators of their herbivores may provide exciting examples of co-evolution among multiple trophic levels. Understanding the mechanism behind the attraction of predators to plants is crucial to conclusions about co-evolution. For example, insectivorous birds are attracted to herbivore-damaged trees without seeing the herbivores or the defoliated parts, but it is not known whether birds use cues from herbivore-damaged plants with a specific adaptation of plants for this purpose. Methodology We examined whether signals from damaged trees attract avian predators in the wild and whether birds could use volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions or net photosynthesis of leaves as cues to detect herbivore-rich trees. We conducted a field experiment with mountain birches (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), their main herbivore (Epirrita autumnata) and insectivorous birds. Half of the trees had herbivore larvae defoliating trees hidden inside branch bags and half had empty bags as controls. We measured predation rate of birds towards artificial larvae on tree branches, and VOC emissions and net photosynthesis of leaves. Principal Findings and Significance The predation rate was higher in the herbivore trees than in the control trees. This confirms that birds use cues from trees to locate insect-rich trees in the wild. The herbivore trees had decreased photosynthesis and elevated emissions of many VOCs, which suggests that birds could use either one, or both, as cues. There was, however, large variation in how the VOC emission correlated with predation rate. Emissions of (E)-DMNT [(E)-4,8-dimethyl-1,3,7-nonatriene], β-ocimene and linalool were positively correlated with predation rate, while those of highly inducible green leaf volatiles were not. These three VOCs are also involved in the attraction of insect parasitoids and predatory mites to herbivore-damaged plants, which suggests that

  5. Low-Fidelity Polymerases of Alphaviruses Recombine at Higher Rates To Overproduce Defective Interfering Particles

    PubMed Central

    Poirier, Enzo Z.; Mounce, Bryan C.; Rozen-Gagnon, Kathryn; Hooikaas, Peter Jan; Stapleford, Kenneth A.; Moratorio, Gonzalo

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerases for many RNA virus mutators have been shown to confer attenuated phenotypes, presumably due to increased mutation rates. Additionally, for many RNA viruses, replication to high titers results in the production of defective interfering particles (DIs) that also attenuate infection. We hypothesized that fidelity, recombination, and DI production are tightly linked. We show that a Sindbis virus mutator replicating at a high multiplicity of infection manifests an earlier and greater accumulation of DIs than its wild-type counterpart. The isolated DIs interfere with the replication of full-length virus in a dose-dependent manner. Importantly, the ability of the mutator virus to overproduce DIs could be linked to an increased recombination frequency. These data confirm that RNA-dependent RNA polymerase fidelity and recombination are inversely correlated for this mutator. Our findings suggest that defective interference resulting from higher recombination rates may be more detrimental to RNA virus mutators than the increase in mutational burden. IMPORTANCE Replication, adaptation, and evolution of RNA viruses rely in large part on their low-fidelity RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Viruses artificially modified in their polymerases to decrease fidelity (mutator viruses) are attenuated in vivo, demonstrating the important role of fidelity in viral fitness. However, attenuation was attributed solely to the modification of the viral mutation rate and the accumulation of detrimental point mutations. In this work, we described an additional phenotype of mutator viruses: an increased recombination rate leading to defective interfering particle (DI) overproduction. Because DIs are known for their inhibitory effect on viral replication, our work suggests that fidelity variants may be attenuated in vivo via several mechanisms. This has important implications in the development of fidelity variants as live attenuated vaccine strains

  6. Unrecognized high brachial artery bifurcation is associated with higher rate of dialysis access failure.

    PubMed

    Kirksey, Lee

    2011-01-01

    A thorough consideration of all factors contributing to successful dialysis access creation is necessary to achieve optimal outcomes. A high bifurcation of the brachial artery (brachioradial variant) occurs in greater than 20% of patients. Dialysis access was created in 22 limbs with this variant--15 fistula, and 7 prosthetic grafts. Nonmaturation occurred in 33% of fistula. Early thromboses occurred in 29% of prosthetic bridge grafts. In this experience, the brachioradial variant is associated with a relatively higher rate of fistula nonmaturation and prosthetic graft thromboses. These findings reinforce the critical role of preoperative imaging studies in dialysis access creation. A sound algorithm for the surgical management of the brachioradial variation facilitates decision making and will improve dialysis access outcomes.

  7. Signal identification for rare and weak features: higher criticism or false discovery rates?

    PubMed

    Klaus, Bernd; Strimmer, Korbinian

    2013-01-01

    Signal identification in large-dimensional settings is a challenging problem in biostatistics. Recently, the method of higher criticism (HC) was shown to be an effective means for determining appropriate decision thresholds. Here, we study HC from a false discovery rate (FDR) perspective. We show that the HC threshold may be viewed as an approximation to a natural class boundary (CB) in two-class discriminant analysis which in turn is expressible as the FDR threshold. We demonstrate that in a rare-weak setting in the region of the phase space where signal identification is possible, both thresholds are practicably indistinguishable, and thus HC thresholding is identical to using a simple local FDR cutoff. The relationship of the HC and CB thresholds and their properties are investigated both analytically and by simulations, and are further compared by the application to four cancer gene expression data sets.

  8. Higher-order QCD predictions for dark matter production at the LHC in simplified models with s-channel mediators.

    PubMed

    Backović, Mihailo; Krämer, Michael; Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony; Mawatari, Kentarou; Pellen, Mathieu

    Weakly interacting dark matter particles can be pair-produced at colliders and detected through signatures featuring missing energy in association with either QCD/EW radiation or heavy quarks. In order to constrain the mass and the couplings to standard model particles, accurate and precise predictions for production cross sections and distributions are of prime importance. In this work, we consider various simplified models with s-channel mediators. We implement such models in the FeynRules/MadGraph5_aMC@NLO framework, which allows to include higher-order QCD corrections in realistic simulations and to study their effect systematically. As a first phenomenological application, we present predictions for dark matter production in association with jets and with a top-quark pair at the LHC, at next-to-leading order accuracy in QCD, including matching/merging to parton showers. Our study shows that higher-order QCD corrections to dark matter production via s-channel mediators have a significant impact not only on total production rates, but also on shapes of distributions. We also show that the inclusion of next-to-leading order effects results in a sizeable reduction of the theoretical uncertainties.

  9. Does higher income inequality adversely influence infant mortality rates? Reconciling descriptive patterns and recent research findings.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Erwin, Paul Campbell

    2015-04-01

    As the struggle continues to explain the relatively high rates of infant mortality (IMR) exhibited in the United States, a renewed emphasis is being placed on the role of possible 'contextual' determinants. Cross-sectional and short time-series studies have found that higher income inequality is associated with higher IMR at the state level. Yet, descriptively, the longer-term trends in income inequality and in IMR seem to call such results into question. To assess whether, over the period 1990-2007, state-level income inequality is associated with state-level IMR; to examine whether the overall effect of income inequality on IMR over this period varies by state; to test whether the association between income inequality and IMR varies across this time period. IMR data--number of deaths per 1000 live births in a given state and year--were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Wonder database. Income inequality was measured using the Gini coefficient, which varies from zero (complete equality) to 100 (complete inequality). Covariates included state-level poverty rate, median income, and proportion of high school graduates. Fixed and random effects regressions were conducted to test hypotheses. Fixed effects models suggested that, overall, during the period 1990-2007, income inequality was inversely associated with IMR (β = -0.07, SE (0.01)). Random effects models suggested that when the relationship was allowed to vary at the state-level, it remained inverse (β = -0.05, SE (0.01)). However, an interaction between income inequality and time suggested that, as time increased, the effect of income inequality had an increasingly positive association with total IMR (β = 0.009, SE (0.002)). The influence of state income inequality on IMR is dependent on time, which may proxy for time-dependent aspects of societal context.

  10. Positive attitude toward healthy eating predicts higher diet quality at all cost levels of supermarkets.

    PubMed

    Aggarwal, Anju; Monsivais, Pablo; Cook, Andrea J; Drewnowski, Adam

    2014-02-01

    Shopping at low-cost supermarkets has been associated with higher obesity rates. This study examined whether attitudes toward healthy eating are independently associated with diet quality among shoppers at low-cost, medium-cost, and high-cost supermarkets. Data on socioeconomic status (SES), attitudes toward healthy eating, and supermarket choice were collected using a telephone survey of a representative sample of adult residents of King County, WA. Dietary intake data were based on a food frequency questionnaire. Thirteen supermarket chains were stratified into three categories: low, medium, and high cost, based on a market basket of 100 commonly eaten foods. Diet-quality measures were energy density, mean adequacy ratio, and total servings of fruits and vegetables. The analytical sample consisted of 963 adults. Multivariable regressions with robust standard error examined relations between diet quality, supermarket type, attitudes, and SES. Shopping at higher-cost supermarkets was associated with higher-quality diets. These associations persisted after adjusting for SES, but were eliminated after taking attitudinal measures into account. Supermarket shoppers with positive attitudes toward healthy eating had equally higher-quality diets, even if they shopped at low-, medium-, or high-cost supermarkets, independent of SES and other covariates. These findings imply that shopping at low-cost supermarkets does not prevent consumers from having high-quality diets, as long as they attach importance to good nutrition. Promoting nutrition-education strategies among supermarkets, particularly those catering to low-income groups, can help to improve diet quality.

  11. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    PubMed Central

    Botticelli, Andrea; Borro, Marina; Onesti, Concetta Elisa; Strigari, Lidia; Gentile, Giovanna; Cerbelli, Bruna; Romiti, Adriana; Occhipinti, Mario; Sebastiani, Claudia; Lionetto, Luana; Marchetti, Luca; Simmaco, Maurizio; Marchetti, Paolo; Mazzuca, Federica

    2016-01-01

    Background 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR) and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD) on survival. Materials and Methods Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome. Results 133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM) with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts); normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts); ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM) with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts). PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029). A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019). No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed. Conclusion 5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes. PMID:27656891

  12. The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levine, Aaron F. Z.; McPhaden, Michael J.

    2015-06-01

    The spring predictability barrier increases the uncertainty in ENSO forecasts starting before and during the boreal spring. Recent work has shown that the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is responsible for phase locking of peak ENSO development to the boreal winter, suggesting that this annual cycle may play a role in the spring predictability barrier. To test this hypothesis, the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is added to a damped, noise-driven conceptual recharge oscillator model. When the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is included, a spring predictability barrier develops, whereas without it ENSO predictability is independent of the forecast start date. When state-dependent noise is included in the simulations in addition to the annual cycle of the growth rate, the spring predictability barrier is enhanced and more realistic.

  13. Reliable Ratings or Reading Tea Leaves: Can Parent, Teacher, and Clinician Behavioral Ratings of Preschoolers Predict ADHD at Age Six?

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Sarah; Schneiderman, Robyn L.; Rajendran, Khushmand; Marks, David J.; Halperin, Jeffrey M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To assess the relative ability of parent, teacher, and clinician behavioral ratings of preschoolers to predict ADHD severity and diagnosis at 6 years of age. Method Hyperactive/inattentive preschoolers [N=104, 75% boys, Mean (SD) age = 4.37 (.47) years] were followed over two years (mean=26.44 months, SD=5.66). At baseline (BL), parents and teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV and clinicians completed the Behavioral Rating Inventory for Children following a psychological testing session. At age 6, [Mean (SD) age = 6.62 (.35) years], parents were interviewed with the K-SADS-PL; teachers completed the ADHD-RS-IV; and laboratory measures of hyperactivity, impulsivity, and inattention were obtained from children. Hierarchical logistic and linear regression analyses examined which combination of BL ratings best predicted 6-year-old ADHD diagnosis and severity, respectively. Results At age 6, 56 (53.8%) children met DSM-IV criteria for a diagnosis of ADHD. BL ratings from parent/teacher/clinician, parent/teacher and parent/clinician combinations significantly predicted children who had an ADHD diagnosis at age 6. Parent and clinician, but not teacher, behavior ratings were significant independent predictors of ADHD diagnosis and severity at 6-years-old. However, only clinician reports of preschoolers’ behaviors predicted laboratory measures of over-activity and inattention at follow-up. Conclusion Cross-situationality is important for a diagnosis of ADHD during the preschool years. Among parents, teachers and clinicians, positive endorsements from all three informants, parent/teacher or parent/clinician appear to have prognostic value. Clinicians’ ratings of preschoolers’ inattention, impulsivity and hyperactivity are valid sources of information for predicting ADHD diagnosis and severity over time. PMID:24085388

  14. Higher Self-Control Capacity Predicts Lower Anxiety-Impaired Cognition during Math Examinations

    PubMed Central

    Bertrams, Alex; Baumeister, Roy F.; Englert, Chris

    2016-01-01

    We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests. PMID:27065013

  15. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    PubMed

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  16. Construct and Predictive Validity of Social Acceptability: Scores From High School Teacher Ratings on the School Intervention Rating Form

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Judith R.; State, Talida M.; Evans, Steven W.; Schamberg, Terah

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct and predictive validity of scores on a measure of social acceptability of class-wide and individual student intervention, the School Intervention Rating Form (SIRF), with high school teachers. Utilizing scores from 158 teachers, exploratory factor analysis revealed a three-factor (i.e.,…

  17. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore: A Comparison With YLS/CMI Ratings.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2016-06-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI.

  18. Student and Teacher Ratings of Instructional Quality: Consistency of Ratings over Time, Agreement, and Predictive Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagner, Wolfgang; Göllner, Richard; Werth, Sarah; Voss, Thamar; Schmitz, Bernhard; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that the agreement between teacher and student ratings of instructional quality is, at best, moderate, and the associations between measures of instructional quality and outcomes such as standardized achievement are typically small and somewhat mixed across both perspectives. One explanation for these low-to-moderate…

  19. Use of ratings of perceived exertion for predicting maximal work rate and prescribing exercise intensity in patients taking atenolol.

    PubMed Central

    Eston, R G; Thompson, M

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of Borg's rating of perceived exertion (RPE) scale to predict maximal exercise levels to control exercise intensity in patients taking atenolol for the treatment of essential hypertension. Normally, a standard formula (220-age) is used for calculating a percentage of exercise intensity, but beta blockade can cause reductions in maximal heart rate of between 20 and 30%. METHODS: Patients were split into a control group-10 men and 10 women, aged 50 (SD 12) and 46 (9) respectively, who had risk factors for cardiovascular disease but were not taking any drugs, and a treatment group-11 men and 11 women, aged 53 (13) and 55 (13) respectively, who were established on 25-100 mg of atenolol. All patients performed two submaximal tests on a cycle ergometer. Test 1 was an estimation test, during which the RPE was reported for each increment in work rate. Test 2 was an RPE production test, during which the patient regulated the work rate according to his/her perception of effort at four predetermined points on the RPE scale (RPE 9, 13, 15, 17). RESULTS: In both tests the individual correlations (r) between RPE, heart rate, and work rate ranged from 0.96 to 0.99. Analysis of variance showed no significant difference in maximal heart rate and maximal power output for the control group when predicted from the regression lines of RPE versus heart rate and RPE versus power output in the estimation test. However, the prediction of maximal power output was lower in the women in the control group and patients in the treatment group when this was predicted from the effort production protocol (P < 0.01). When exercise intensity at each RPE was expressed relative to maximal power output there were no differences between treatment and control groups. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study confirmed the strong positive relation between RPE, heart rate, and work rate in these patients in both passive effort estimation and

  20. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    PubMed

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  1. Nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates and higher multipole excitations

    SciTech Connect

    Thirolf, P. G.; Habs, D.; Filipescu, D.; Gernhaeuser, R.; Guenther, M. M.; Jentschel, M.; Marginean, N.; Pietralla, N.

    2012-07-09

    Next-generation {gamma} beams from laser Compton-backscattering facilities like ELI-NP (Bucharest)] or MEGa-Ray (Livermore) will drastically exceed the photon flux presently available at existing facilities, reaching or even exceeding 10{sup 13}{gamma}/sec. The beam structure as presently foreseen for MEGa-Ray and ELI-NP builds upon a structure of macro-pulses ({approx}120 Hz) for the electron beam, accelerated with X-band technology at 11.5 GHz, resulting in a micro structure of 87 ps distance between the electron pulses acting as mirrors for a counterpropagating intense laser. In total each 8.3 ms a {gamma} pulse series with a duration of about 100 ns will impinge on the target, resulting in an instantaneous photon flux of about 10{sup 18}{gamma}/s, thus introducing major challenges in view of pile-up. Novel {gamma} optics will be applied to monochromatize the {gamma} beam to ultimately {Delta}E/E{approx}10{sup -6}. Thus level-selective spectroscopy of higher multipole excitations will become accessible with good contrast for the first time. Fast responding {gamma} detectors, e.g. based on advanced scintillator technology (e.g. LaBr{sub 3}(Ce)) allow for measurements with count rates as high as 10{sup 6}-10{sup 7}{gamma}/s without significant drop of performance. Data handling adapted to the beam conditions could be performed by fast digitizing electronics, able to sample data traces during the micro-pulse duration, while the subsequent macro-pulse gap of ca. 8 ms leaves ample time for data readout. A ball of LaBr{sub 3} detectors with digital readout appears to best suited for this novel type of nuclear photonics at ultra-high counting rates.

  2. Epidural insertion simulator of higher insertion resistance & drop rate after puncture.

    PubMed

    Naemura, K; Sakai, A; Hayashi, T; Saito, H

    2008-01-01

    Accidents such as dural puncture remain one of the problems of epidural anesthesia, and unskilled doctors can repeat such accidents. The purpose of the current research was to provide a new simulator for epidural insertion training. No reference data regarding the resistance force used when inserting a needle into patients have been reported. A comparative study was conducted to aid in the development of a new simulator. Pork loin (n=5) were employed as a substitute for patients. Thickness was set at 2 cm so as to improve the reproducibility. The authors took the conventional simulator apart, and picked a block as an analogue of muscle and ligamentum flavum. A new simulator was made of a melamine foam resin block and a latex rubber sheet. An epidural needle fixed on a motorized stage was inserted at the speed of 2 mm per second. The reaction force was measured while the needle was inserted into each specimen. Waveform of the pork loin exhibited two slopes of different inclines up to peaks and then falls after puncture. The conventional simulator showed a simple increase up to peak and a slow fall after puncture. In contrast, the new simulator showed two slopes up to peak and then a sudden fall after puncture. The insertion resistances were 2.5 N/s for the porcine, 0.8 N/s for the conventional and 2.1 N/s for the new simulator. The drop rates were 5 N/s for the porcine, 0.6 N/s for the conventional and 24 N/s for the new simulator. The higher insertion resistance and drop rate for the new simulator than the conventional simulator will be suitable for epidural insertion training.

  3. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-08-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation.

  4. Putative extremely high rate of proteome innovation in lancelets might be explained by high rate of gene prediction errors

    PubMed Central

    Bányai, László; Patthy, László

    2016-01-01

    A recent analysis of the genomes of Chinese and Florida lancelets has concluded that the rate of creation of novel protein domain combinations is orders of magnitude greater in lancelets than in other metazoa and it was suggested that continuous activity of transposable elements in lancelets is responsible for this increased rate of protein innovation. Since morphologically Chinese and Florida lancelets are highly conserved, this finding would contradict the observation that high rates of protein innovation are usually associated with major evolutionary innovations. Here we show that the conclusion that the rate of proteome innovation is exceptionally high in lancelets may be unjustified: the differences observed in domain architectures of orthologous proteins of different amphioxus species probably reflect high rates of gene prediction errors rather than true innovation. PMID:27476717

  5. Elevated Serum PCT in Septic Shock With Endotoxemia Is Associated With a Higher Mortality Rate.

    PubMed

    Adamik, Barbara; Smiechowicz, Jakub; Jakubczyk, Dominika; Kübler, Andrzej

    2015-07-01

    To examine the effect of endotoxemia on the procalcitonin (PCT) serum levels and mortality rates of adult patients with septic shock diagnosed on the day of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU).A retrospective observational study was performed over a 2-year period. Levels of PCT were compared for septic shock patients with and without endotoxemia on admission to the ICU. Endotoxemia was identified with an Endotoxin Activity Assay.One hundred fifty-seven patients with septic shock were enrolled into the study. Group 1 consisted of patients with elevated endotoxin activity (EA) (n = 95, EA = 0.57 endotoxin activity unit [EAU] [0.46-0.67]) and Group 2 consisted of patients with low EA (n = 62, EA = 0.27 EAU [0.17-0.36]). Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and SOFA score were similar in both groups (APACHE II = 23 [16-29] and 19 [16-25]; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA] = 10 [7-13] and 11 [8-12] in Groups 1 and 2, respectively) (nonsignificant). The PCT level was 6 times higher in Group 1 than in Group 2 (19.6 ng/mL vs. 3.1 ng/mL, P < 0.001). There was a strong correlation between EA and serum PCT (P < 0.001, R = 0.5). The presence of endotoxemia on admission to the ICU was associated with an increased mortality rate: 52% in the group of patients with endotoxemia and 25% in the group without endotoxemia. EA in survivors was 0.39 EAU (0.26-0.57) and 0.53 EAU (0.4-0.61) in nonsurvivors (P = 0.004). The median PCT level in survivors was 6.7 ng/mL (2.3-28.0), compared with 16.7 ng/mL (5.3-31.0) in nonsurvivors (P = 0.04).This observational study revealed that endotoxemia in patients with septic shock on admission to the ICU was frequently found and was associated with an elevated PCT level and a high mortality rate. Endotoxemia was a common occurrence in patients with septic shock, regardless of the infecting microorganism.

  6. Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

    1973-01-01

    A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.

  7. Relative in vitro growth rates of duckweeds (Lemnaceae) - the most rapidly growing higher plants.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, P; Adelmann, K; Zimmer, S; Schmidt, C; Appenroth, K-J

    2015-01-01

    Relative growth rates (RGR), doubling times (DT) and relative weekly yields (RY) of 39 clones (ecotypes) from 13 species representing all five genera of duckweeds were determined under standardised cultivation conditions. RGR ranged overall from 0.153 to 0.519 day(-1) , DT from 1.34 to 4.54 days and RY from 2.9 to 37.8 week(-1) . The RGR and RY data can be compared directly to other published findings to only a limited extent on account of missing clonal designations for and limited accessibility to previously investigated clones, as well as the use of different data denominators. However, they are consistent with the published results of other comparative duckweed studies of similar scope in showing that RGR does not vary primarily at the level of the genus or species, but rather reflects the adaptation of individual clones to specific local conditions. The RGR data support the widely held assumption that duckweeds can grow faster than other higher plants and that they can thus surpass land-based agricultural crops in productivity. Duckweeds are highly promising for the production of biomass for nutrition and energy, but extensive clonal comparison will be required to identify the most suitable isolates for this purpose.

  8. Heart Rate Change When Standing Up Might Predict Older Adult's Death Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... Change When Standing Up Might Predict Older Adult's Death Risk People with slower heart rate recovery had ... they stand up might reveal their risk of death over the next several years, a new study ...

  9. Predicting pregnancy rate following multiple embryo transfers using algorithms developed through static image analysis.

    PubMed

    Tian, Yun; Wang, Wei; Yin, Yabo; Wang, Weizhou; Duan, Fuqing; Zhao, Shifeng

    2017-02-16

    Single-embryo image assessment involves a high degree of inaccuracy because of the imprecise labelling of the transferred embryo images. In this study, we considered the entire transfer cycle to predict the implantation potential of embryos, and propose a novel algorithm based on a combination of local binary pattern texture feature and Adaboost classifiers to predict pregnancy rate. The first step of the proposed method was to extract the features of the embryo images using the local binary pattern operator. After this, multiple embryo images in a transfer cycle were considered as one entity, and the pregnancy rate was predicted using three classifiers: the Real Adaboost, Gentle Adaboost, and Modest Adaboost. Finally, the pregnancy rate was determined via the majority vote rule based on classification results of the three Adaboost classifiers. The proposed algorithm was verified to have a good predictive performance and may assist the embryologist and clinician to select embryos to transfer and in turn improve pregnancy rate.

  10. Verifying the performance of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression in predicting the mean seasonal municipal solid waste generation rate: A case study of Fars province, Iran.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Sama; Karimi-Jashni, Ayoub

    2016-02-01

    Predicting the mass of solid waste generation plays an important role in integrated solid waste management plans. In this study, the performance of two predictive models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) was verified to predict mean Seasonal Municipal Solid Waste Generation (SMSWG) rate. The accuracy of the proposed models is illustrated through a case study of 20 cities located in Fars Province, Iran. Four performance measures, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and R were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The MLR, as a conventional model, showed poor prediction performance. On the other hand, the results indicated that the ANN model, as a non-linear model, has a higher predictive accuracy when it comes to prediction of the mean SMSWG rate. As a result, in order to develop a more cost-effective strategy for waste management in the future, the ANN model could be used to predict the mean SMSWG rate.

  11. The utility of Thin Slice ratings for predicting language growth in children with autism spectrum disorder.

    PubMed

    Walton, Katherine M; Ingersoll, Brooke R

    2016-04-01

    Literature on "Thin Slice" ratings indicates that a number of personality characteristics and behaviors can be accurately predicted by ratings of very short segments (<5 min) of behavior. This study examined the utility of Thin Slice ratings of young children with autism spectrum disorder for predicting developmental skills and language gains over time. A total of 22 preschool-aged children with autism spectrum disorder participated in a battery of developmental assessments and a video-taped therapist-child interaction at Time 1. They then participated in follow-up testing of language skills and a second therapist-child interaction 6 months later (Time 2). Groups of approximately 25 naïve undergraduate students provided impression ratings ("Thin Slice ratings") about each child's skills and behaviors during 2-min segments taken from the therapist-child interaction videos at each time point. Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 were highly correlated with child scores on several developmental assessments at Time 1. In addition, Thin Slice ratings at Time 1 predicted gain in parent-reported expressive vocabulary over the course of 6 months, over and above the predictive utility of Time 1 vocabulary size. These findings provide preliminary evidence for the concurrent and predictive validity of Thin Slice ratings in young children with autism spectrum disorder.

  12. A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity in women with pelvic floor disorders

    PubMed Central

    Kanter, Gregg; Rogers, Rebecca G; Pauls, Rachel N; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy; Thakar, Ranee

    2015-01-01

    Introduction and Hypothesis We evaluated the associations between pelvic floor muscle strength and tone with sexual activity and sexual function in women with pelvic floor disorders. Methods This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter study of women with pelvic floor disorders from the US and UK performed to validate the Pelvic Organ Prolapse/Incontinence Sexual Questionnaire, IUGA-Revised (PISQ-IR). Participants were surveyed about whether they were sexually active and completed the PISQ-IR and Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaires to assess sexual function. Physical exams included assessment of pelvic floor strength by the Oxford Grading Scale, and assessment of pelvic floor tone per ICS guidelines. Results The cohort of 585 women was middle aged (mean age 54.9 +/−12.1) with 395 (67.5%) reporting sexual activity. Women with a strong pelvic floor (n=275) were more likely to report sexual activity than women with weak strength (n=280) (75.3 vs. 61.8%, p<0.001), but normal or hypoactive pelvic floor tone was not associated with sexual activity (68.8 vs. 60.2%, normal vs. hypoactive, p=0.08). After multivariable analysis, a strong pelvic floor remained predictive of sexual activity (OR 1.89, CI 1.18–3.03, p<0.01). Among sexually active women (n=370), a strong pelvic floor was associated with higher scores on the PISQ-IR domain of condition impact (Parameter Estimate 0.20+/−0.09, P=0.04), and FSFI orgasm domain (PE 0.51+/−0.17, P=0.004). Conclusion A strong pelvic floor is associated with higher rates of sexual activity as well as higher sexual function scores on the condition impact domain of the PISQ-IR and orgasm domain of the FSFI. PMID:25994625

  13. NEUTRON GENERATOR FACILITY AT SFU: GEANT4 DOSE RATE PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION.

    PubMed

    Williams, J; Chester, A; Domingo, T; Rizwan, U; Starosta, K; Voss, P

    2016-11-01

    Detailed dose rate maps for a neutron generator facility at Simon Fraser University were produced via the GEANT4 Monte Carlo framework. Predicted neutron dose rates throughout the facility were compared with radiation survey measurements made during the facility commissioning process. When accounting for thermal neutrons, the prediction and measurement agree within a factor of 2 or better in most survey locations, and within 10 % inside the vault housing the neutron generator.

  14. Introducing ab initio based neural networks for transition-rate prediction in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messina, Luca; Castin, Nicolas; Domain, Christophe; Olsson, Pär

    2017-02-01

    The quality of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations of microstructure evolution in alloys relies on the parametrization of point-defect migration rates, which are complex functions of the local chemical composition and can be calculated accurately with ab initio methods. However, constructing reliable models that ensure the best possible transfer of physical information from ab initio to KMC is a challenging task. This work presents an innovative approach, where the transition rates are predicted by artificial neural networks trained on a database of 2000 migration barriers, obtained with density functional theory (DFT) in place of interatomic potentials. The method is tested on copper precipitation in thermally aged iron alloys, by means of a hybrid atomistic-object KMC model. For the object part of the model, the stability and mobility properties of copper-vacancy clusters are analyzed by means of independent atomistic KMC simulations, driven by the same neural networks. The cluster diffusion coefficients and mean free paths are found to increase with size, confirming the dominant role of coarsening of medium- and large-sized clusters in the precipitation kinetics. The evolution under thermal aging is in better agreement with experiments with respect to a previous interatomic-potential model, especially concerning the experiment time scales. However, the model underestimates the solubility of copper in iron due to the excessively high solution energy predicted by the chosen DFT method. Nevertheless, this work proves the capability of neural networks to transfer complex ab initio physical properties to higher-scale models, and facilitates the extension to systems with increasing chemical complexity, setting the ground for reliable microstructure evolution simulations in a wide range of alloys and applications.

  15. Application of Artificial Neural Network in Predicting the Survival Rate of Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Biglarian, A; Hajizadeh, E; Kazemnejad, A; Zali, MR

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to predict the survival rate of Iranian gastric cancer patients using the Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network models as well as comparing the ability of these approaches in predicting the survival of these patients. Methods: In this historical cohort study, the data gathered from 436 registered gastric cancer patients who have had surgery between 2002 and 2007 at the Taleghani Hospital (a referral center for gastrointestinal cancers), Tehran, Iran, to predict the survival time using Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network techniques. Results: The estimated one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year and five-year survival rates of the patients were 77.9%, 53.1%, 40.8%, 32.0%, and 17.4%, respectively. The Cox regression analysis revealed that the age at diagnosis, high-risk behaviors, extent of wall penetration, distant metastasis and tumor stage were significantly associated with the survival rate of the patients. The true prediction of neural network was 83.1%, and for Cox regression model, 75.0%. Conclusion: The present study shows that neural network model is a more powerful statistical tool in predicting the survival rate of the gastric cancer patients compared to Cox proportional hazard regression model. Therefore, this model recommended for the predicting the survival rate of these patients. PMID:23113076

  16. Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-05-01

    Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

  17. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    PubMed

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals.

  18. Predicting Ratings of Counselor Trainee Empathy with Self-Report Anxiety Measures and Skin Conductance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, James T.; Giesen, J. Martin

    1982-01-01

    Investigated the degree of relationship between clients' and judges' ratings of counselor trainee (N=29) empathy and self-report anxiety and skin conductance measures. Results indicated the usefulness of anxiety measures to predict counselor empathy is predicated on the criterion for rating counselor empathy. (RC)

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Corrosion Rate Prediction Models Utilized for Reinforced Concrete Affected by Chloride

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.

  20. Comparing the Contribution of Teacher versus Tutor Ratings of Inattentive Behavior in Predicting Mathematics Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the relative contribution of teacher and tutor ratings of inattentive behavior in two different instructional settings in predicting students' performance on fraction concepts and whole-number calculations. Classroom teachers rated each student's attentive behavior in a whole-class setting and tutors rated…

  1. Contribution of Teacher Ratings of Behavioral Characteristics to the Prediction of Divergent Thinking and Problem Solving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houtz, John C.; Shaning, Dennis J.

    1982-01-01

    Predicted divergent thinking and problem-solving performance of elementary school students from teachers' ratings of students' affective/behavioral characteristics, and from intelligence test scores. Found teachers' ratings of sensitivity to beauty, risk taking, awareness of impulses, and humor were the most frequent significant predictors in…

  2. Accuracy of predicted resting metabolic rate and relationship between resting metabolic rate and cardiorespiratory fitness in obese men

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Do Kyung

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study is to examine that not only the relationship of the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and cardiorespiratory fitness(VO2peak), but also the comparison between measured and predicted results of RMR in obese men. [Methods] 60 obese men (body fat>32%) were recruited for this study. They did not participate in regular exercising programs at least 6 months. The RMR was measured with indirect calorimetry and predicted RMR using Herris-Benedicte equation. The cardiorespiratory fitness was determined by directly measuring the oxygen consumption (VO2peak) during the exercise on the treadmill. [Results] The significance for the difference between the measured results and predicted result of RMR were tested by paired t-test. Correlation of measured date was obtained by Pearson correlation coefficient. The value of predicted RMR and measured RMR were significantly different in these obese subjects. (p < 0.001). The difference between RMR cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiorespiratory fitness showed significant correlation (r=0.67, p < 0.05). [Conclusion] The current formulas of predicted RMR have limited the evaluation of measured RMR for Korean obese men. Therefore, this study suggests that new formula should be designed for Korean in order to obtain more accurate results in obese. PMID:25566436

  3. Composition-based effective chain length for prediction of protein folding rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Le; Wang, Jun; Wang, Wei

    2010-11-01

    Folding rate prediction is a useful way to find the key factors affecting folding kinetics of proteins. Structural information is more or less required in the present prediction methods, which limits the application of these methods to various proteins. In this work, an “effective length” is defined solely based on the composition of a protein, namely, the number of specific types of amino acids in a protein. A physical theory based on a minimalist model is employed to describe the relation between the folding rates and the effective length of proteins. Based on the resultant relationship between folding rates and effective length, the optimal sets of amino acids are found through the enumeration over all possible combinations of amino acids. This optimal set achieves a high correlation (with the coefficient of 0.84) between the folding rates and the optimal effective length. The features of these amino acids are consistent with our model and landscape theory. Further comparisons between our effective length and other factors are carried out. The effective length is physically consistent with structure-based prediction methods and has the best predictability for folding rates. These results all suggest that both entropy and energetics contribute importantly to folding kinetics. The ability to accurately and efficiently predict folding rates from composition enables the analysis of the kinetics for various kinds of proteins. The underlying physics in our method may be helpful to stimulate further understanding on the effects of various amino acids in folding dynamics.

  4. Blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems and some Fujita-type theorems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Hongjing; Xing, Ruixiang

    2008-03-01

    In this paper, we derive blow-up rates for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems. Our proof is by contradiction and uses a scaling argument. This procedure reduces the problems of blow-up rate to Fujita-type theorems. In addition, we also give some new Fujita-type theorems for higher-order semilinear parabolic equations and systems with the time variable on . These results are not restricted to positive solutions.

  5. Do maternal ratings of appetite in infants predict later Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire scores and body mass index?

    PubMed

    Parkinson, Kathryn N; Drewett, Robert F; Le Couteur, Ann S; Adamson, Ashley J

    2010-02-01

    In a longitudinal birth cohort maternal ratings of children's appetite made at 6 weeks, 12 months and 5-6 years were correlated with one another and with subscales from the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ) at 5-6 years, and body mass index (BMI) at 6-8 years. Statistically significant correlations were found between the children's appetite ratings. Appetite ratings in infancy were also correlated with the CEBQ subscale scores at 5-6 years to a limited extent, but not with the BMI at 6-8 years. The appetite rating at 5-6 years and three of the CEBQ subscales were independently associated with BMI. Children with higher levels of Emotional Over-Eating and Desire to Drink had higher BMIs, and children with higher levels of Satiety Responsiveness had lower BMIs. These results provide further evidence that there are concurrent associations between appetite ratings in childhood and BMI but suggest that appetite ratings in infancy are related only weakly to later appetite measures and do not predict later BMI.

  6. Do Astronauts Havbe a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions Than a Cohort of Working Professionals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, M. S.; Murray, J. D.; Young, M.; Wear, M. L.; Van Baalen, M.; Tarver, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated [1], but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  7. Do Astronauts have a Higher Rate of Orthopedic Shoulder Conditions than a Cohort of Working Professionals?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laughlin, Mitzi S.; Murray, Jocelyn D.; Young, Millenia; Wear, Mary L.; Tarver, W. J.; Van Baalen, Mary

    2016-01-01

    Occupational surveillance of astronaut shoulder injuries began with operational concerns at the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) training. NASA has implemented several occupational health initiatives during the past 20 years to decrease the number and severity of injuries, but the individual success rate is unknown. Orthopedic shoulder injury and surgery rates were calculated, but classifying the rates as normal, high or low was highly dependent on the comparison group. The purpose of this study was to identify a population of working professionals and compare orthopedic shoulder consultation and surgery rates.

  8. Short term Heart Rate Variability to predict blood pressure drops due to standing: a pilot study

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Standing from a bed or chair may cause a significant lowering of blood pressure (ΔBP), which may have severe consequences such as, for example, falls in older subjects. The goal of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict the ΔBP due to standing in healthy subjects, based on their Heart Rate Variability, recorded in the 5 minutes before standing. Methods Heart Rate Variability was extracted from an electrocardiogram, recorded from 10 healthy subjects during the 5 minutes before standing. The blood pressure value was measured before and after rising. A mathematical model aiming to predict ΔBP based on Heart Rate Variability measurements was developed using a robust multi-linear regression and was validated with the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation technique. Results The model predicted correctly the ΔBP in 80% of experiments, with an error below the measurement error of sphygmomanometer digital devices (±4.5 mmHg), a false negative rate of 7.5% and a false positive rate of 10%. The magnitude of the ΔBP was associated with a depressed and less chaotic Heart Rate Variability pattern. Conclusions The present study showes that blood pressure lowering due to standing can be predicted by monitoring the Heart Rate Variability in the 5 minutes before standing. PMID:26391336

  9. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation: can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    PubMed Central

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E.; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a ‘critical rate of environmental change’ beyond which increased maladaptation leads to population extinction. Here, we parametrize two closely related models to predict this critical rate using data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We used stochastic dynamic programming to predict changes in optimal breeding time under three different climate scenarios. Using these results we parametrized two theoretical models to predict critical rates. Results from both models agreed qualitatively in that even ‘mild’ rates of climate change would be close to these critical rates with respect to great tit breeding time, while for scenarios close to the upper limit of IPCC climate projections the calculated critical rates would be clearly exceeded with possible consequences for population persistence. We therefore tentatively conclude that micro-evolution, together with plasticity, would rescue only the population from mild rates of climate change, although the models make many simplifying assumptions that remain to be tested. PMID:23209174

  10. 43 CFR 3108.2-3 - Reinstatement at higher rental and royalty rates: Class II reinstatements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... rates: Class II reinstatements. 3108.2-3 Section 3108.2-3 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to... rental and royalty rates: Class II reinstatements. (a) The authorized officer may, if the requirements of this section are met, reinstate an oil and gas lease which was terminated by operation of law...

  11. Factors Affecting Student Loan Default Rates: Nevada System of Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kypuros, Christopher Anthony

    2009-01-01

    Nevada's rate of default on college loans is among the highest in the nation. At the time of this study, there were no research studies on defaulters in the state of Nevada. The present study was designed for initial exploration regarding the relationship between various kinds of student factors and default rates from institutions at the Nevada…

  12. The utility of kindergarten teacher ratings for predicting low academic achievement in first grade.

    PubMed

    Teisl, J T; Mazzocco, M M; Myers, G F

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of kindergarten teachers' ratings of pupils for later first-grade academic achievement. Kindergarten students were rated by their teachers on a variety of variables, including math and reading performance, teacher concerns, and amount of learning relative to peers. These variables were then analyzed with respect to outcome measures for math and reading ability administered in the first grade. The teachers' ratings of academic performance were significantly correlated with scores on the outcome measures. Analyses were also carried out to determine sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the different teacher ratings. The results indicated high overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the ratings. Positive predictive value tended to be lower. A recommendation to follow from these results is that teacher ratings of this sort be used to determine which children should receive cognitive screening measures to further enhance identification of children at risk for learning disability. However, this recommendation is limited by the lack of empirically supported screening measures for math disability versus well-supported screening tools for reading disability.

  13. Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

    2011-01-01

    A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed…

  14. Predicting University Preference and Attendance: Applied Marketing in Higher Education Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Robert W.; Zallocco, Ronald L.

    1983-01-01

    A multi-attribute attitude model was used to determine whether a multicriteria scale can be used to predict student preferences for and attendance at universities. Data were gathered from freshmen attending five state universities in Ohio. The results indicate a high level of predictability. (Author/MLW)

  15. Emotionally excited eyeblink-rate variability predicts an experience of transportation into the narrative world

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Ryota; Hino, Kojun; Shimazu, Makoto; Liang, Yingzong; Okada, Takeshi

    2015-01-01

    Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 years, SD = 13.18 years, range 18–63 years) were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1) in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2) in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor and Purpura, 1997). The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed SD) of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members. PMID:26029123

  16. A simple algorithm for predicting proton SEU rates in space compared to the rates measured on the CRRES satellite

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, R.A.; McNulty, P.J.; Beauvais, W.J.; Abdel-Kader, W.G. . Dept. of Physics and Astronomy); Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Barth, J.C.L. )

    1994-12-01

    A new simulation code, the Clemson Omnidirectional Spallation Model for Interaction in Circuits (COSMIC), is described and its predictions agree with SEU data from four devices flown as part of the microelectronics package experiment on the CRRES satellite. The code uses CUPID for determining the energy depositions in the sensitive volumes; it allows proton exposures with arbitrary angles of incidence including random omnidirectional exposure; and the user specifies the thickness of shielding on six sides of the sensitive volume. COSMIC is used as part of an algorithm developed to predict the rate proton induced single event upsets occur in the space radiation environment given by AP-8. In testing the algorithm, the position coordinates are taken from the satellite's ephemeris data, but calculations based on position coordinates from orbital codes were also in agreement with the measured values.

  17. Development of Theoretical Methods for Predicting Solvent Effects on Reaction Rates in Supercritical Water Oxidation Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Tucker, manuscript in preparation. “Examination of Nonequilibrium Solvent Effects on an SN2 Reaction in Supercritical Water,” R. Behera, B...DATES COVERED Final: 7/1/99 - 12/31/02 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Development of theoretical methods for predicting solvent effects on reactions ...computational methods for predicting how reaction rate constants will vary with thermodynamic condition in supercritical water (SCW). Towards this

  18. Prediction of heart rate and oxygen uptake during incremental and maximal exercise in healthy adults.

    PubMed

    Fairbarn, M S; Blackie, S P; McElvaney, N G; Wiggs, B R; Paré, P D; Pardy, R L

    1994-05-01

    Measurement of heart rate and oxygen uptake during incremental exercise and at maximal exercise is useful in evaluating mechanisms responsible for exercise limitation in patients with cardiopulmonary disease. Presently used prediction equations are based on relatively small groups of subjects in whom there was an uneven distribution of subjects with regard to age and sex or based on equations that were from extrapolated data. Our prediction equations are based on data from 231 men and women equally divided within decades between 20 and 80 years. Patients exercised to a symptom-limited maximum on a cycle ergometer while measurements of heart rate and oxygen uptake were recorded. The relationship between heart rate and oxygen uptake throughout exercise (HR:VO2) was determined using a statistical technique that included each data point from each subject. The HR:VO2 throughout incremental exercise was best described by separate equations for women younger than 50 years and older than 50 years and for men younger than 70 years and older than 70 years. Prediction equations for maximal heart rate (HRmax) and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) were developed by linear regression and were selected from all possible combinations of parameters. The HRmax was most accurately predicted by age alone for both sexes. Unlike the HR:VO2 relationship, the slope of the line relating heart rate to age was not different for the older women compared with the younger women so that a single equation was derived to predict HRmax. A single equation for the men was also sufficient since the slope of heart rate to age was the same for all ages. To most accurately predict VO2max, a separate equation was required for both the women and men that included age, height, and weight.

  19. Displacement rate dependence of irradiation creep as predicted by the production bias model

    SciTech Connect

    Woo, C.H.

    1996-04-01

    Recently, it has been shown that the non-swelling component of irradiation creep of austenitic stainless steels is relatively independent of temperature but is sensitive to the displacement rate. An earlier model of Lewthwaite and Mosedale anticipated the sensitivity of displacement rate and attributed it to the flux sensitivity of point defect recombination. The point-defect recombination process does not yield the observed temperature dependence, however, although it does predict an inverse dependence of the creep rate on the square root of the displacement rate that was experimentally observed at relatively low temperatures.

  20. Quasi-static magnetic measurements to predict specific absorption rates in magnetic fluid hyperthermia experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coral, D. F.; Mendoza Zélis, P.; de Sousa, M. E.; Muraca, D.; Lassalle, V.; Nicolás, P.; Ferreira, M. L.; Fernández van Raap, M. B.

    2014-01-01

    In this work, the issue on whether dynamic magnetic properties of polydispersed magnetic colloids modeled using physical magnitudes derived from quasi-static magnetic measurement can be extrapolated to analyze specific absorption rate data acquired at high amplitudes and frequencies of excitation fields is addressed. To this end, we have analyzed two colloids of magnetite nanoparticles coated with oleic acid and chitosan in water displaying, under a radiofrequency field, high and low specific heat power release. Both colloids are alike in terms of liquid carrier, surfactant and magnetic phase composition but differ on the nanoparticle structuring. The colloid displaying low specific dissipation consists of spaced magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 4.8 nm inside a large chitosan particle of 52.5 nm. The one displaying high specific dissipation consists of clusters of magnetic nanoparticles of mean size around 9.7 nm inside a chitosan particle of 48.6 nm. The experimental evaluation of Néel and Brown relaxation times (˜10-10 s and 10-4 s, respectively) indicate that the nanoparticles in both colloids magnetically relax by Néel mechanism. The isothermal magnetization curves analysis for this mechanism show that the magnetic nanoparticles behave in the interacting superparamagnetic regime. The specific absorption rates were determined calorimetrically at 260 kHz and up to 52 kA/m and were well modeled within linear response theory using the anisotropy density energy retrieved from quasi-static magnetic measurement, validating their use to predict heating ability of a given polydispersed particle suspension. Our findings provide new insight in the validity of quasi-static magnetic characterization to analyze the high frequency behavior of polydispersed colloids within the framework of the linear response and Wohlfarth theories and indicate that dipolar interactions play a key role being their strength larger for the colloid displaying higher dissipation, i

  1. Gas chromatographic retention index as a basis for predicting evaporation rates of complex mixtures.

    PubMed

    Mcllroy, John W; Jones, A Daniel; McGuffin, Victoria L

    2014-12-10

    Models that predict the fate of petroleum fuels in the environment are often required for effective remediation of fuel-contaminated sites. In this research, an environmental fuel spill was simulated by means of a diesel/water microcosm, in which the temporal changes in composition were assessed during evaporation by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). First-order kinetic rate constants were calculated for 51 selected compounds and utilized to develop predictive models for evaporation rate constants, using GC retention indices on a nonpolar stationary phase. Models were initially developed to predict rates of evaporation of compounds from individual classes (normal alkane, branched alkane, alkyl benzene, and polycyclic hydrocarbon) and then expanded to include all compounds (comprehensive model). Using the comprehensive model, the rate constants were predicted with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of 10%, whereas the class-specific models resulted in less error (4-8%). These models were employed to predict the fraction remaining of the total fuel (6% error) as well as the fraction remaining of individual compounds (13% MAPE). Accurate models such as these will facilitate remediation of environmental releases of petroleum products.

  2. Time for prediction? The effect of presentation rate on predictive sentence comprehension during word-by-word reading

    PubMed Central

    Wlotko, Edward W.; Federmeier, Kara D.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive processing is a core component of normal language comprehension, but the brain may not engage in prediction to the same extent in all circumstances. This study investigates the effects of timing on anticipatory comprehension mechanisms. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants read two-sentence mini-scenarios previously shown to elicit prediction-related effects for implausible items that are categorically related to expected items (‘They wanted to make the hotel look more like a tropical resort. So along the driveway they planted rows of PALMS/PINES/TULIPS.’). The first sentence of every pair was presented in its entirety and was self-paced. The second sentence was presented word-by-word with a fixed stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of either 500 ms or 250 ms that was manipulated in a within-subjects blocked design. Amplitudes of the N400 ERP component are taken as a neural index of demands on semantic processing. At 500 ms SOA, implausible words related to predictable words elicited reduced N400 amplitudes compared to unrelated words (PINES vs. TULIPS), replicating past studies. At 250 ms SOA this prediction-related semantic facilitation was diminished. Thus, timing is a factor in determining the extent to which anticipatory mechanisms are engaged. However, we found evidence that prediction can sometimes be engaged even under speeded presentation rates. Participants who first read sentences in the 250 ms SOA block showed no effect of semantic similarity for this SOA, although these same participants showed the effect in the second block with 500 ms SOA. However, participants who first read sentences in the 500 ms SOA block continued to show the N400 semantic similarity effect in the 250 ms SOA block. These findings add to results showing that the brain flexibly allocates resources to most effectively achieve comprehension goals given the current processing environment. PMID:25987437

  3. A model for predicting crack growth rate for mixed mode fracture under biaxial loads

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shliannikov, V. N.; Braude, N. Z.

    1992-09-01

    A model for predicting the crack growth rate of an initially angled crack under biaxial loads of arbitrary direction is suggested. The model is based on a combination of both the Manson-Coffin equation for low cycle fatigue and the Paris equation for fatigue crack propagation. The model takes into consideration the change in material plastic properties in the region around the crack tip due to the stress state, together with the initial orientation of the crack and also its trajectory of growth. Predictions of crack growth rate for any mixed mode fracture is based on the results of uniaxial tension experiments.

  4. Prediction of Eventual Suicide in Psychiatric Inpatients by Clinical Ratings of Hopelessness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beck, Aaron T.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Used 9-point clinical rating scale to assess severity of hopelessness in 141 patients hospitalized with suicide ideation. Followed patients from 5 to 10 years; 10 eventually committed suicide. Mean hopelessness rating for patients committing suicide was significantly higher than that for patients not committing suicide. Cutoff score of 6 or above…

  5. Higher rate of tissue regeneration in polyploid asexual versus diploid sexual freshwater snails.

    PubMed

    Krois, Nicole R; Cherukuri, Anvesh; Puttagunta, Nikhil; Neiman, Maurine

    2013-08-23

    Characterizing phenotypic differences between sexual and asexual organisms is a critical step towards understanding why sexual reproduction is so common. Because asexuals are often polyploid, understanding how ploidy influences phenotype is directly relevant to the study of sex and will provide key insights into the evolution of ploidy-level variation. The well-established association between genome size and cell cycle duration, evidence for a link between genome size and tissue regeneration rate and the growing body of research showing that ploidy influences growth rate and gene expression led us to hypothesize that healing and tissue regeneration might be affected by ploidy-level variation. We evaluated this hypothesis by measuring the rate of regeneration of antenna tissue of Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a New Zealand snail characterized by frequent coexistence between diploid sexuals and polyploid asexuals. Antennae of triploid and presumptive tetraploid asexuals regenerated more rapidly than the antennae of diploid sexuals, but regeneration rate did not differ between triploids and tetraploids. These results suggest either that ploidy elevation has nonlinear positive effects on tissue regeneration and/or that factors associated directly with reproductive mode affect regeneration rate more than ploidy level. The results of this study also indicate that the lower ploidy of sexual P. antipodarum is unlikely to confer advantages associated with more rapid regeneration.

  6. Examining Life Goals and School Attendance Rates of Afghan Students Receiving Higher Education in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bek, Hafiz

    2016-01-01

    This research is a descriptive study carried out to examine the relations between life goals and school attendance levels among Afghan students receiving higher education in Turkey. In total there were 198 Afghan students that participated in the study. Among which 159 were male and 39 female. All of these students were studying in 16 Turkish…

  7. Update on Graduation Rate Reporting: Issues and Opportunities. Policy Matters: A Higher Education Policy Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, Alene

    2009-01-01

    Since the passage of the federal Student Right-to-Know Act of 1990 (SRTK), graduation rates have been a subject of much debate and controversy. Why all the fuss? The simple truth is that graduation from college does matter, and it matters more than ever. From the societal perspective, the United States is falling behind other nations in the…

  8. Choosing a Higher Education Study Abroad Destination: What Mainland Chinese Parents and Students Rate as Important

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodycott, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Mainland China is one of the largest sources of undergraduate and postgraduate students. Previous research has identified the push-pull factors and features that influence a student choice of study abroad destination. This article extends understanding by identifying and examining what 251 mainland Chinese parents and 100 students rated as most…

  9. Forecasting Student Entrants, Flows and Success Rates. Technical Report. Studies in Institutional Management in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Han, Stjepan; And Others

    This document is concerned with an information system to study the internal dynamics of student flows, choice of subjects and success rates, taking into account different regional affiliations and the socioeconomic backgrounds of students. Among the external factors to be considered will be the demographic dimension in terms of changes in the…

  10. Community College Responses to Calls for Higher Completion Rates: The Cases of Three Community Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smock, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to understand how three diverse community colleges are interpreting and acting on federal initiatives to increase completion rates. The study attempted to answer four main research questions: (1) How do a selection of Kansas community colleges, as organizations, interpret the initiative to increase completion…

  11. Systematic and Systemic Approaches to Reducing Attrition Rates in Online Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chyung, Seung Youn

    2001-01-01

    Discusses an online distance education program at Boise State University that used Keller's ARCS model, Kaufman's Organizational Elements Model, and Kirkpatrick's evaluation model to improve motivational appeal for the adult learners and reduce the attrition rate. Describes the interventions implemented and presents results of evaluations that…

  12. Do Expenditures Other than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    During the last two decades, median instructional spending per full-time equivalent (FTE) student at American 4-year colleges and universities has grown at a slower rate than median spending per FTE student in a number of other expenditure categories, including academic support, student services and research. Our paper uses institutional level…

  13. Higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt correlate with younger age but not orthostatic symptoms.

    PubMed

    Ives, Colleen T; Kimpinski, Kurt

    2013-08-15

    Reports have shown that younger individuals present with higher postural heart rate increments on head-up tilt (HUT). However, a correlation between the degree of heart rate increment and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance has not been determined. The objective of this study was to determine whether higher postural heart rate increments during HUT correlate with symptoms of orthostatic intolerance in healthy subjects. Postural heart rate increment on HUT did not differ between men and women (P = 0.48) but did show a significant decrease by age group (P < 0.0001). There was a significant negative correlation between heart rate increment on HUT and age [r = -0.63 (-0.73, -0.51), r(2) = 0.400; P < 0.0001]. There was a significant difference with respect to symptoms of orthostatic intolerance by sex (P = 0.03) but not age (P = 0.58). There was no significant correlation between either symptoms of orthostatic intolerance and age [r = -0.13 (-0.31, 0.06), r(2) = 0.017; P = 0.17] or heart rate increment on HUT and symptoms of orthostatic intolerance [r = 0.15 (-0.04, 0.33), r(2) = 0.022; P = 0.13]. The results demonstrate that higher postural heart rate increments in younger individuals do not result in an increase in orthostatic intolerance. This highlights the potential need for a reevaluation of the diagnostic criteria for postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome in younger individuals.

  14. Higher Adenoma Detection Rates with Endocuff-Assisted Colonoscopy – A Randomized Controlled Multicenter Trial

    PubMed Central

    Fitzlaff, Rüdiger; Röming, Hermann; Ameis, Detlev; Heinecke, Achim; Kunsch, Steffen; Ellenrieder, Volker; Ströbel, Philipp; Schepke, Michael; Meister, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The Endocuff is a device mounted on the tip of the colonoscope to help flatten the colonic folds during withdrawal. This study aimed to compare the adenoma detection rates between Endocuff-assisted (EC) colonoscopy and standard colonoscopy (SC). Methods This randomized prospective multicenter trial was conducted at four academic endoscopy units in Germany. Participants: 500 patients (235 males, median age 64[IQR 54–73]) for colon adenoma detection purposes were included in the study. All patients were either allocated to EC or SC. The primary outcome measure was the determination of the adenoma detection rates (ADR). Results The ADR significantly increased with the use of the Endocuff compared to standard colonoscopy (35.4%[95% confidence interval{CI} 29–41%] vs. 20.7%[95%CI 15–26%], p<0.0001). Significantly more sessile polyps were detected by EC. Overall procedure time and withdrawal time did not differ. Caecal and ileum intubation rates were similar. No major adverse events occurred in both groups. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95%[CI] 1.01–1.05), male sex (OR 1.74; 95%CI 1.10–2.73), withdrawal time (OR 1.16; 95%CI 1.05–1.30), procedure time (OR 1.07; 95%CI 1.04–1.10), colon cleanliness (OR 0.60; 95%CI 0.39–0.94) and use of Endocuff (OR 2.09; 95%CI 1.34–3.27) were independent predictors of adenoma detection rates. Conclusions EC increases the adenoma detection rate by 14.7%(95%CI 6.9–22.5%). EC is safe, effective, easy to handle and might reduce colorectal interval carcinomas. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02034929. PMID:25470133

  15. Predicting the Effects of Coastal Hypoxia on Vital Rates of the Planktonic Copepod Acartia tonsa Dana

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, David T.; Pierson, James J.; Roman, Michael R.

    2013-01-01

    We describe a model predicting the effects of low environmental oxygen on vital rates (egg production, somatic growth, and mortality) of the coastal planktonic copepod Acartia tonsa. Hypoxic conditions can result in respiration rate being directly limited by oxygen availability. We hypothesized that A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion rates would all respond in a similar manner to low oxygen conditions, as a result of oxygen dependent changes in respiration rate. Rate data for A. tonsa egg production, somatic growth, and ingestion under low environmental oxygen were compiled from the literature and from supplementary experiments. The response of these rates to oxygen was compared by converting all to the analogous units in terms of oxygen utilization, which we termed analogous respiration rate. These analogous respiration rates, along with published measurements of respiration rates, were used to parameterize and evaluate the relationship between A. tonsa respiration rate and environmental oxygen. At 18°C, our results suggest that A. tonsa experiences sub-lethal effects of hypoxia below an oxygen partial pressure of 8.1 kPa (∼3.1 mg L−1 = 2.3 mL L−1). The results of this study can be used to predict the effects of hypoxia on A. tonsa growth and mortality as related to environmental temperature and oxygen partial pressure. Such predictions will be useful as a way to incorporate the effects of coastal hypoxia into population, community, or ecosystem level models that include A. tonsa. This approach can also be used to characterize the effects of hypoxia on other aquatic organisms. PMID:23691134

  16. Performance Analysis of MIMO-STBC Systems with Higher Coding Rate Using Adaptive Semiblind Channel Estimation Scheme

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ravi

    2014-01-01

    Semiblind channel estimation method provides the best trade-off in terms of bandwidth overhead, computational complexity and latency. The result after using multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems shows higher data rate and longer transmit range without any requirement for additional bandwidth or transmit power. This paper presents the detailed analysis of diversity coding techniques using MIMO antenna systems. Different space time block codes (STBCs) schemes have been explored and analyzed with the proposed higher code rate. STBCs with higher code rates have been simulated for different modulation schemes using MATLAB environment and the simulated results have been compared in the semiblind environment which shows the improvement even in highly correlated antenna arrays and is found very close to the condition when channel state information (CSI) is known to the channel. PMID:24688379

  17. Performance analysis of MIMO-STBC systems with higher coding rate using adaptive semiblind channel estimation scheme.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Ravi; Saxena, Rajiv

    2014-01-01

    Semiblind channel estimation method provides the best trade-off in terms of bandwidth overhead, computational complexity and latency. The result after using multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems shows higher data rate and longer transmit range without any requirement for additional bandwidth or transmit power. This paper presents the detailed analysis of diversity coding techniques using MIMO antenna systems. Different space time block codes (STBCs) schemes have been explored and analyzed with the proposed higher code rate. STBCs with higher code rates have been simulated for different modulation schemes using MATLAB environment and the simulated results have been compared in the semiblind environment which shows the improvement even in highly correlated antenna arrays and is found very close to the condition when channel state information (CSI) is known to the channel.

  18. Women With Early Menopause Have Higher Rates of Target Lesion Revascularization After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Zhijian; Liu, Xiaoli; Zhou, Zhiming; Zhao, Yingxin; Shi, Dongmei; Liu, Yuyang; Liang, Jing; Yang, Lixia; Chai, Meng; Zhou, Yujie

    2016-04-01

    Early menopause has been found to be associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Our objective was to investigate the impact of early menopause on clinical outcomes for women undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We observed female patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing PCI and found that women with early menopause (≤46 years old) were more likely to have CAD risk factors and more severe coronary lesions. During the 18-month follow-up, early menopause was associated with similar risk of death and myocardial infarction but higher risk of target lesion revascularization (TLR; 7.8% vs 5.3%, P = .003) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; 11.3% vs 9.0%, P = .007). After adjustment, early menopause was an independent risk factor for 18-month MACEs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-2.00) and TLR (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.21-2.13). In conclusion, for women undergoing PCI, early menopause is associated with higher risk of MACE, which is mainly driven by risk of TLR.

  19. Mechanical analysis of woven composites at high strain rates and its application to predicting impact behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryou, Hansun; Chung, Kwansoo; Lim, Ji-Ho

    2008-12-01

    The deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates was analyzed using a constitutive equation developed to describe the nonlinear, anisotropic/asymmetric and rate-dependent mechanical behavior of woven composites. The rate-dependent nonlinear behavior of woven composites was characterized at high strain rates (1 s-1 to 100 s-1) using a tensile testing method first proposed in this research. The material properties for the developed constitutive equation were determined and subsequently used in a finite element analysis of the deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates. Finally, the impact behavior of woven composites was predicted using the constitutive equation and the results were compared with experiments, showing that the current constitutive equation including the characterization method is adequate to describe the deformation behavior of woven composites at high strain rates up to impact level.

  20. Jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: perturbative higher order predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinzierl, Stefan

    2011-02-01

    This article gives results on several jet algorithms in electron-positron annihilation: Considered are the exclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Geneva, Jade-E0 and Cambridge, which are typically used in electron-positron annihilation. In addition also inclusive jet algorithms are studied. Results are provided for the inclusive sequential recombination algorithms Durham, Aachen and anti- k t , as well as the infrared-safe cone algorithm SISCone. The results are obtained in perturbative QCD and are N3LO for the two-jet rates, NNLO for the three-jet rates, NLO for the four-jet rates and LO for the five-jet rates.

  1. Predicting Public Confidence in Higher Education Institutions: An Analysis of Social Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunsaker, B. Tom; Thomas, Douglas E.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates that there are two primary aims of the higher education institution: (a) scientific and scholarly inquiry, and (b) the instruction of students (Veblen, 1918). This aim has been reified consistently for nearly a century. By 2002, the pursuit of higher education had reached record levels. However, more recently, public confidence…

  2. Open-Source Learning Management Systems: A Predictive Model for Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Rooij, S. Williams

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated the role of pedagogical, technical, and institutional profile factors in an institution of higher education's decision to select an open-source learning management system (LMS). Drawing on the results of previous research that measured patterns of deployment of open-source software (OSS) in US higher education and…

  3. Defining the players in higher-order networks: predictive modeling for reverse engineering functional influence networks.

    PubMed

    McDermott, Jason E; Archuleta, Michelle; Stevens, Susan L; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P; Sanfilippo, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Determining biological network dependencies that can help predict the behavior of a system given prior observations from high-throughput data is a very valuable but difficult task, especially in the light of the ever-increasing volume of experimental data. Such an endeavor can be greatly enhanced by considering regulatory influences on co-expressed groups of genes representing functional modules, thus constraining the number of parameters in the system. This allows development of network models that are predictive of system dynamics. We first develop a predictive network model of the transcriptomics of whole blood from a mouse model of neuroprotection in ischemic stroke, and show that it can accurately predict system behavior under novel conditions. We then use a network topology approach to expand the set of regulators considered and show that addition of topological bottlenecks improves the performance of the predictive model. Finally, we explore how improvements in definition of functional modules may be achieved through an integration of inferred network relationships and functional relationships defined using Gene Ontology similarity. We show that appropriate integration of these two types of relationships can result in models with improved performance.

  4. Comparison of higher order spectra in heart rate signals during two techniques of meditation: Chi and Kundalini meditation.

    PubMed

    Goshvarpour, Ateke; Goshvarpour, Atefeh

    2013-02-01

    The human heartbeat is one of the important examples of complex physiologic fluctuations. For the first time in this study higher order spectra of heart rate signals during meditation have explored. Specifically, the aim of this study was to analysis and compares the contribution of quadratic phase coupling of human heart rate variability during two forms of meditation: (1) Chinese Chi (or Qigong) meditation and (2) Kundalini Yoga meditation. For this purpose, Bispectrum was estimated by using biased, parametric and the direct (FFT) method. The results show that the mean Bispectrum magnitude of heart rate signals increased during Kundalini Yoga meditation, but it decreased significantly during Chi meditation. However, in both meditation techniques phase-coupled harmonics are shifted to the higher frequencies during meditation. In addition, it has shown that not only there are significant differences between rest and meditation states, but also heart rate patterns appear to be influenced by different types of meditation.

  5. Increased Earthquake Rates in the Central and Eastern US Portend Higher Earthquake Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llenos, A. L.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Mueller, C. S.; Michael, A. J.; McGarr, A.; Petersen, M. D.; Weingarten, M.; Holland, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    Since 2009 the central and eastern United States has experienced an unprecedented increase in the rate of M≥3 earthquakes that is unlikely to be due to natural variation. Where the rates have increased so has the seismic hazard, making it important to understand these changes. Areas with significant seismicity increases are limited to areas where oil and gas production take place. By far the largest contributor to the seismicity increase is Oklahoma, where recent studies suggest that these rate changes may be due to fluid injection (e.g., Keranen et al., Geology, 2013; Science, 2014). Moreover, the area of increased seismicity in northern Oklahoma that began in 2013 coincides with the Mississippi Lime play, where well completions greatly increased the year before the seismicity increase. This suggests a link to oil and gas production either directly or from the disposal of significant amounts of produced water within the play. For the purpose of assessing the hazard due to these earthquakes, should they be treated differently from natural earthquakes? Previous studies suggest that induced seismicity may differ from natural seismicity in clustering characteristics or frequency-magnitude distributions (e.g., Bachmann et al., GJI, 2011; Llenos and Michael, BSSA, 2013). These differences could affect time-independent hazard computations, which typically assume that clustering and size distribution remain constant. In Oklahoma, as well as other areas of suspected induced seismicity, we find that earthquakes since 2009 tend to be considerably more clustered in space and time than before 2009. However differences between various regional and national catalogs leave unclear whether there are significant changes in magnitude distribution. Whether they are due to natural or industrial causes, the increased earthquake rates in these areas could increase the hazard in ways that are not accounted for in current hazard assessment practice. Clearly the possibility of induced

  6. Personality Measures Link Slower Binocular Rivalry Switch Rates to Higher Levels of Self-Discipline

    PubMed Central

    Antinori, Anna; Smillie, Luke D.; Carter, Olivia L.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we investigated the relation between personality and the rate of perceptual alternations during binocular rivalry. Studies have demonstrated that slower rivalry alternations are associated with a range of clinical conditions. It is less clear whether rivalry dynamics similarly co-vary with individual differences in psychological traits seen across non-clinical population. We assessed rivalry rates in a non-clinical population (n = 149) and found slower rivalry alternations were positively related r(149) = 0.20, p = 0.01 to industriousness, a trait characterized by a high level of self-discipline using the Big Five Aspect Scales (BFAS). Switch rates were also negatively related r(149) = −0.20, p = 0.01 to cognitive disorganization, a schizotypy trait capturing schizophrenia-like symptoms of disorganization using the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of feelings and Experiences (O-LIFE). Furthermore, we showed that that these relations with personality were unaffected by the inclusion or exclusion of mixed percept in the response analysis. Together these results are relevant to theoretical models of rivalry investigating individual differences in rivalry temporal dynamics and they may reduce concerns about the impact of task compliance in clinical research using rivalry as a potential diagnostic tool. PMID:28105021

  7. Evaluating the Prediction of Maximal Heart Rate in Children and Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mahon, Anthony D.; Marjerrison, Andrea D.; Lee, Jonah D.; Woodruff, Megan E.; Hanna, Lauren E.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we compared measured maximal heart rate (HRmax) to two different HRmax prediction equations [220-age and 208-0.7(age)] in 52 children ages 7-17 years. We determined the relationship of chronological age, maturational age, and resting HR to measured HRmax and assessed seated resting HR and HRmax during a graded exercise test.…

  8. Predicting Cognitive Development, Intellectual Styles, and Personality Traits from Self-Rated Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Li-fang

    2005-01-01

    The present paper reports a series of six studies, each investigating the power of self-rated analytical, creative, and practical abilities for predicting one of six individual-difference variables: cognitive development, modes of thinking, career interests, learning approaches, thinking styles, and personality traits. Contributing to the…

  9. Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

    2007-01-01

    Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

  10. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  11. Can the anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen test improve predictions of fertilizer nitrogen rates in the Cornbelt?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Correctly estimating the amount of mineralizable nitrogen (N) can enhance nitrogen use efficiency. The anaerobic potentially mineralizable nitrogen (PMNAn) test is a tool that may help improve predictions of N uptake, grain yield, and the economical optimum nitrogen rate (EONR) of corn (Zea mays L...

  12. Predicting Lexical Density Growth Rate in Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoder, Paul J.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this longitudinal correlational study was to test whether an environmental variable and 4 child variables predicted growth rate of number of different nonimitative words used (i.e., lexical density). Method: Thirty-five young (age range = 21-54 months) children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) who were initially…

  13. Perceived Prevalence of Teasing and Bullying Predicts High School Dropout Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornell, Dewey; Gregory, Anne; Huang, Francis; Fan, Xitao

    2013-01-01

    This prospective study of 276 Virginia public high schools found that the prevalence of teasing and bullying (PTB) as perceived by both 9th-grade students and teachers was predictive of dropout rates for this cohort 4 years later. Negative binomial regression indicated that one standard deviation increases in student- and teacher-reported PTB were…

  14. The Predictive Validity of Savry Ratings for Assessing Youth Offenders in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Chu, Chi Meng; Goh, Mui Leng; Chong, Dominic

    2015-01-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the SAVRY has been reported in studies conducted in many Western contexts, but not in a Singaporean context. This study compared the predictive validity of the SAVRY ratings for violent and general recidivism against the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) ratings within the Singaporean context. Using a sample of 165 male young offenders (Mfollow-up = 4.54 years), results showed that the SAVRY Total Score and Summary Risk Rating, as well as YLS/CMI Total Score and Overall Risk Rating, predicted violent and general recidivism. SAVRY Protective Total Score was only significantly predictive of desistance from general recidivism, and did not show incremental predictive validity for violent and general recidivism over the SAVRY Total Score. Overall, the results suggest that the SAVRY is suited (to varying degrees) for assessing the risk of violent and general recidivism in young offenders within the Singaporean context, but might not be better than the YLS/CMI. PMID:27231403

  15. Practical calculator programs. Part 6. Program predicts drilling time, penetration rate

    SciTech Connect

    Chenevert, M.E.; Hollo, R.

    1981-10-05

    Chenevert's program, designed for the TI-59 programmable calculator, can determine the time (hr) needed to drill a new well to a given depth and the expected penetration rate (ft/hr) at that depth. The program bases its calculations on bit records obtained from an offset well. Extrapolation of the results can predict drilling times for deeper wells.

  16. Integrated prediction of protein folding and unfolding rates from only size and structural class.

    PubMed

    De Sancho, David; Muñoz, Victor

    2011-10-14

    Protein stability, folding and unfolding rates are all determined by the multidimensional folding free energy surface, which in turn is dictated by factors such as size, structure, and amino-acid sequence. Work over the last 15 years has highlighted the role of size and 3D structure in determining folding rates, resulting in many procedures for their prediction. In contrast, unfolding rates are thought to depend on sequence specifics and be much more difficult to predict. Here we introduce a minimalist physics-based model that computes one-dimensional folding free energy surfaces using the number of aminoacids (N) and the structural class (α-helical, all-β, or α-β) as only protein-specific input. In this model N sets the overall cost in conformational entropy and the net stabilization energy, whereas the structural class defines the partitioning of the stabilization energy between local and non-local interactions. To test its predictive power, we calibrated the model empirically and implemented it into an algorithm for the PREdiction of Folding and Unfolding Rates (PREFUR). We found that PREFUR predicts the absolute folding and unfolding rates of an experimental database of 52 proteins with accuracies of ±0.7 and ±1.4 orders of magnitude, respectively (relative to experimental spans of 6 and 8 orders of magnitude). Such prediction uncertainty for proteins vastly varying in size and structure is only two-fold larger than the differences in folding (±0.34) and unfolding rates (±0.7) caused by single-point mutations. Moreover, PREFUR predicts protein stability with an accuracy of ±6.3 kJ mol(-1), relative to the 5 kJ mol(-1) average perturbation induced by single-point mutations. The remarkable performance of our simplistic model demonstrates that size and structural class are the major determinants of the folding landscapes of natural proteins, whereas sequence variability only provides the final 10-20% tuning. PREFUR is thus a powerful bioinformatic tool

  17. Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

    PubMed

    Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner.

  18. Prospective prediction of college adjustment using self- and informant-rated personality traits.

    PubMed

    Kurtz, John E; Puher, Meredith A; Cross, Nicole A

    2012-01-01

    Studies that relate normal personality traits to students' adjustment to college have relied heavily on self-rating methods, concurrent designs, and academic performance indicators as criteria. We conducted a prospective study of high school seniors with a follow-up assessment made near the end of their freshman year of college. Self-ratings of personality traits and college adjustment were obtained from 90 students using the revised NEO personality inventory (NEO PI-R; Costa & McCrae, 1992) and the student adaptation to college questionnaire (SACQ; Baker & Siryk, 1989 ). Ratings of personality were also obtained from parents (n = 66) and same-sex peers from the college setting (n = 78) using the NEO five-factor inventory (NEO-FFI; Costa & McCrae, 1992 ). SACQ academic adjustment was correlated with conscientiousness ratings by all three sources and with openness ratings by parents and peers. SACQ Social Adjustment was correlated with self-ratings of neuroticism and peer ratings of extraversion. SACQ personal-emotional adjustment was correlated with self-ratings and parent ratings of neuroticism. Ratings by parents and peers showed significant incremental validity over self-ratings in the prediction of certain trait-adjustment relationships.

  19. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use

    PubMed Central

    Prince, Mark A.; Connors, Gerard J.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Dearing, Ronda L.

    2016-01-01

    While past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. 65 treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pre-treatment, during treatment, and post-treatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients’ and therapists’ mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. 1- through 4- class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4 months posttreatment. 3-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment. PMID:26999350

  20. Within treatment therapeutic alliance ratings profiles predict posttreatment frequency of alcohol use.

    PubMed

    Prince, Mark A; Connors, Gerard J; Maisto, Stephen A; Dearing, Ronda L

    2016-03-01

    Although past research has demonstrated a positive relationship between the therapeutic alliance (TA) and improved drinking outcomes, specific aspects of the alliance have received less attention. In this study, we examined the association between alliance characteristics during treatment and 4-month follow-up drinking reports. Sixty-five treatment-seeking alcohol dependent clients who participated in 12 weeks of individual outpatient treatment provided weekly TA ratings during treatment and reported on pretreatment, during treatment, and posttreatment alcohol use. Latent profile analysis was conducted to discern distinct profiles of client and therapist ratings of therapeutic alliance with similar alliance characteristics. TA profiles were based on clients' and therapists' mean alliance rating, minimum alliance rating, maximum alliance rating, the range of alliance ratings, and the difference in session number between maximum and minimum alliance ratings. One- through 4-class models were fit to the data. Model fit was judged by comparative fit indices, substantive interpretability, and parsimony. Wald tests of mean equality determined whether classes differed on follow-up percentage of days abstinent (PDA) at 4-months posttreatment. Three-profile solutions provided the best fit for both client and therapist ratings of the therapeutic alliance. Client alliance rating profiles predicted drinking in the follow-up period, but therapist rating profiles did not. These results suggest that distinct profiles of the therapeutic alliance can be identified and that client alliance rating profiles are associated with frequency of alcohol use following outpatient treatment.

  1. Clinical chemistry in higher dimensions: Machine-learning and enhanced prediction from routine clinical chemistry data.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Alice; Signor, Ben M; Lidbury, Brett A; Badrick, Tony

    2016-11-01

    Big Data is having an impact on many areas of research, not the least of which is biomedical science. In this review paper, big data and machine learning are defined in terms accessible to the clinical chemistry community. Seven myths associated with machine learning and big data are then presented, with the aim of managing expectation of machine learning amongst clinical chemists. The myths are illustrated with four examples investigating the relationship between biomarkers in liver function tests, enhanced laboratory prediction of hepatitis virus infection, the relationship between bilirubin and white cell count, and the relationship between red cell distribution width and laboratory prediction of anaemia.

  2. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

    PubMed Central

    Fagan, William F.; Pearson, Yanthe E.; Larsen, Elise A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Turner, Jessica B.; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E.; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits. PMID:23720545

  3. Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth.

    PubMed

    Fagan, William F; Pearson, Yanthe E; Larsen, Elise A; Lynch, Heather J; Turner, Jessica B; Staver, Hilary; Noble, Andrew E; Bewick, Sharon; Goldberg, Emma E

    2013-07-22

    The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

  4. Students-as-Customers' Satisfaction, Predictive Retention with Marketing Implications: The Case of Malaysian Higher Education Business Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Stephen; Yeo, Amy Chu-May

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate two areas of interest: first, to determine business student customer satisfiers that could be contributors to students' current and predicted retention in a higher educational institution (HEI) and second, to use these satisfiers to inform HEI marketing planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: The…

  5. Engaging Students Emotionally: The Role of Emotional Intelligence in Predicting Cognitive and Affective Engagement in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maguire, Rebecca; Egan, Arlene; Hyland, Philip; Maguire, Phil

    2017-01-01

    Student engagement is a key predictor of academic performance, persistence and retention in higher education. While many studies have identified how aspects of the college environment influence engagement, fewer have specifically focused on emotional intelligence (EI). In this study, we sought to explore whether EI could predict cognitive and/or…

  6. The Relations between Lower and Higher Level Comprehension Skills and Their Role in Prediction of Early Reading Comprehension

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silva, Macarena; Cain, Kate

    2015-01-01

    This study of 4- to 6-year-olds had 2 aims: first, to determine how lower level comprehension skills (receptive vocabulary and grammar) and verbal memory support early higher level comprehension skills (inference and literal story comprehension), and second, to establish the predictive power of these skills on subsequent reading comprehension.…

  7. Higher arterial catheter-related infection rates in femoral than in dorsalis pedis access.

    PubMed

    Lorente, L; Jiménez, A; Jiménez, J J; Iribarren, J L; Martínez, J; Naranjo, C; Santacreu, R; Martín, M M; Mora, M L

    2010-04-01

    Although there are many studies on arterial catheter-related infection (ACRI) there is little information on the relative risks associated with different catheter access sites. In previous studies we have shown a higher incidence of ACRI in femoral than in radial access sites. This prospective observational study was designed to compare the incidence of ACRI in patients on an intensive care unit with femoral versus dorsalis pedis access sites. We compared 1085 femoral arterial catheters inserted for a cumulative 6497 days with 174 dorsalis pedis catheters inserted for a cumulative 1050 days. We detected 33 cases of ACRI in the femoral access group (11 with bacteraemia and 22 with line site infection; 5.08 infections per 1000 catheter-days) but none in the dorsalis pedis access group. There were no significant differences between the two groups regarding age, sex, Acute Physiological Assessment and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, diagnosis, previous arterial catheter insertion, use of mechanical ventilation, use of antimicrobials or catheter duration. Regression analysis showed a higher incidence of ACRI for femoral than for dorsalis pedis access sites (odds ratio: 7.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.37-infinite; P=0.01). These results suggest that dorsalis pedis arterial access should be used in preference to femoral arterial access in order to reduce the risk of ACRI.

  8. A higher rate of hyperandrogenic disorders in female-to-male transsexuals.

    PubMed

    Bosinski, H A; Peter, M; Bonatz, G; Arndt, R; Heidenreich, M; Sippell, W G; Wille, R

    1997-07-01

    In an effort to elucidate the aetiology of female-to-male transsexualism (FM-TS) 12 out of an annual sample of 16 untreated female-to-male transsexuals (FMT), aged 19 years 7 months (19;7) to 44 years 8 months (44;8) [median age (M) 27;5] were assessed by means of sexual-medical questionnaires, physical and endocrinological examination. The control group consisted of 15 healthy women (CF), aged 19 years 2 months (19;2) to 36 years 1 month (36;1) (M 22;7) without gender identity disorder, who were not under hormonal medication (including contraceptives). Baseline levels of testosterone (T; ng/dl), androstenedione (A4; ng/dl), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS; ng/ml), luteinizing hormone (LH; IU/l), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH; IU/l), and sex-hormone binding globuline (SHBG; microgram/dl) were measured. A standard single-dose ACTH stimulation test (250 micrograms ACTH IV; Synacthen) was performed with all subjects. Aldosterone (ALDO), corticosterone (B), deoxycorticosterone (DOC), progesterone (PROG), 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP), 11-deoxycortisol (S), cortisol (F), cortisone (E), pregnenolone (PREG) and 17-hydroxypregnenolone (OHPREG) were assessed before and 60 min after ACTH stimulation. Transvaginal ultrasound was performed in nine out of 12 FMT (20;11 to 44;8, M 27;5; m 29.1 +/- 7.5) but not in CF. Results showed that 10 FMT (83.3%) and five CF (33.3%) were above normal values for at least one of the measured androgens. Baseline levels of T and A4 were significantly higher in FMT than in CF (T: 54.0 +/- 13.8 vs. 41.1 +/- 12.8; A4: 244.8 +/- 73.0 vs. 190.5 +/- 49.3; p < .05), whereas DHEAS, SHBG, LH and FSH did not differ between the groups. Unbound T (T/SHBG ratio) was higher in FMT (72.0 +/- 67.6) than in CF (26.4 +/- 15.1). Baseline levels of 17OHP, OHPREG and DOC were higher in FMT than in CF (p < .05). After ACTH stimulation 17OHP and OHPREG remained higher in FMT than in CF (p < .05). Single case analysis of ACTH stimulation test together with

  9. Prediction models of human plasma protein binding rate and oral bioavailability derived by using GA-CG-SVM method.

    PubMed

    Ma, Chang-Ying; Yang, Sheng-Yong; Zhang, Hui; Xiang, Ming-Li; Huang, Qi; Wei, Yu-Quan

    2008-08-05

    In this study, support vector machine (SVM) method combined with genetic algorithm (GA) for feature selection and conjugate gradient (CG) method for parameter optimization (GA-CG-SVM), has been employed to develop prediction models of human plasma protein binding rate (PPBR) and oral bioavailability (BIO). The advantage of the GA-CG-SVM is that it can deal with feature selection and SVM parameter optimization simultaneously. Five-fold cross-validation as well as independent test set method were used to validate the prediction models. For the PPBR, a total of 692 compounds were used to train and test the prediction model. The prediction accuracy by means of 5-fold cross-validation is 86% and that for the independent test set (161 compounds) is 81%. These accuracies are markedly higher over that of the best model currently available in literature. The number of descriptors selected is 29. For the BIO, the training set is composed of 690 compounds and external 76 compounds form an independent validation set. The prediction accuracy for the training set by using 5-fold cross-validation and that for the independent test set are 80% and 86%, respectively, which are better than or comparable to those of other classification models in literature. The number of descriptors selected is 25. For both the PPBR and BIO, the descriptors selected by GA-CG method cover a large range of molecular properties which imply that the PPBR and BIO of a drug might be affected by many complicated factors.

  10. A hyperspectral image can predict tropical tree growth rates in single-species stands.

    PubMed

    Caughlin, T Trevor; Graves, Sarah J; Asner, Gregory P; van Breugel, Michiel; Hall, Jefferson S; Martin, Roberta E; Ashton, Mark S; Bohlman, Stephanie A

    2016-12-01

    Remote sensing is increasingly needed to meet the critical demand for estimates of forest structure and composition at landscape to continental scales. Hyperspectral images can detect tree canopy properties, including species identity, leaf chemistry and disease. Tree growth rates are related to these measurable canopy properties but whether growth can be directly predicted from hyperspectral data remains unknown. We used a single hyperspectral image and light detection and ranging-derived elevation to predict growth rates for 20 tropical tree species planted in experimental plots. We asked whether a consistent relationship between spectral data and growth rates exists across all species and which spectral regions, associated with different canopy chemical and structural properties, are important for predicting growth rates. We found that a linear combination of narrowband indices and elevation is correlated with standardized growth rates across all 20 tree species (R(2)  = 53.70%). Although wavelengths from the entire visible-to-shortwave infrared spectrum were involved in our analysis, results point to relatively greater importance of visible and near-infrared regions for relating canopy reflectance to tree growth data. Overall, we demonstrate the potential for hyperspectral data to quantify tree demography over a much larger area than possible with field-based methods in forest inventory plots.

  11. Accuracy of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in Korean athletic and non-athletic adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jae-Hee; Kim, Myung-Hee; Kim, Gwi-Sun; Park, Ji-Sun

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Athletes generally desire changes in body composition in order to enhance their athletic performance. Often, athletes will practice chronic energy restrictions to attain body composition changes, altering their energy needs. Prediction of resting metabolic rates (RMR) is important in helping to determine an athlete's energy expenditure. This study compared measured RMR of athletic and non-athletic adolescents with predicted RMR from commonly used prediction equations to identify the most accurate equation applicable for adolescent athletes. SUBJECTS/METHODS A total of 50 athletes (mean age of 16.6 ± 1.0 years, 30 males and 20 females) and 50 non-athletes (mean age of 16.5 ± 0.5 years, 30 males and 20 females) were enrolled in the study. The RMR of subjects was measured using indirect calorimetry. The accuracy of 11 RMR prediction equations was evaluated for bias, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS Until more accurate prediction equations are developed, our findings recommend using the formulas by Cunningham (-29.8 kcal/day, limits of agreement -318.7 and +259.1 kcal/day) and Park (-0.842 kcal/day, limits of agreement -198.9 and +196.9 kcal/day) for prediction of RMR when studying male adolescent athletes. Among the new prediction formulas reviewed, the formula included in the fat-free mass as a variable [RMR = 730.4 + 15 × fat-free mass] is paramount when examining athletes. CONCLUSIONS The RMR prediction equation developed in this study is better in assessing the resting metabolic rate of Korean athletic adolescents. PMID:26244075

  12. Accuracy of rate coding: When shorter time window and higher spontaneous activity help

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levakova, Marie; Tamborrino, Massimiliano; Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr

    2017-02-01

    It is widely accepted that neuronal firing rates contain a significant amount of information about the stimulus intensity. Nevertheless, theoretical studies on the coding accuracy inferred from the exact spike counting distributions are rare. We present an analysis based on the number of observed spikes assuming the stochastic perfect integrate-and-fire model with a change point, representing the stimulus onset, for which we calculate the corresponding Fisher information to investigate the accuracy of rate coding. We analyze the effect of changing the duration of the time window and the influence of several parameters of the model, in particular the level of the presynaptic spontaneous activity and the level of random fluctuation of the membrane potential, which can be interpreted as noise of the system. The results show that the Fisher information is nonmonotonic with respect to the length of the observation period. This counterintuitive result is caused by the discrete nature of the count of spikes. We observe also that the signal can be enhanced by noise, since the Fisher information is nonmonotonic with respect to the level of spontaneous activity and, in some cases, also with respect to the level of fluctuation of the membrane potential.

  13. Faster photodegradation rate and higher dioxin yield of triclosan induced by cationic surfactant CTAB.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Xianliang; Zheng, Xiaodong; Xie, Qing; Yang, Xianhai; Xiao, Jie; Xue, Weifeng; Chen, Jingwen

    2014-06-30

    Triclosan has received extensive attention as it has been frequently detected in the aquatic environment. Photolysis was found to be a major pathway governing the fate of triclosan in the aquatic environment. However, the effects of surfactants that usually coexist with triclosan, on the photodegradation of triclosan, are largely unknown. In this study, the effects of selected surfactants on the photodegradation of triclosan were investigated experimentally. The results show that anionic sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate, sodium dodecyl sulfate and neutral polyoxyethylene (20) sorbitan monooleate inhibit the photolysis of triclosan, whereas cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) significantly accelerates the photodegradation rate of triclosan. The interactions between the hydrophilic group of CTAB and anionic triclosan lead to the apparent decrease of pKa of triclosan from 8.4 to 6.1, which increase the fraction of anionic triclosan from 4% to 89% in neutral solution. A red shift in the UV-VIS absorption spectrum is exhibited, thus leading to the increased photodegradation rate of triclosan. The accelerations caused by CTAB were observed under xenon lamp and Hg lamp irradiances, as well as under natural sunlight. Effect of CTAB demonstrated pH dependence with significantly enhancement under pH 5∼9 and inhibition at pH=3. The presence of CTAB also increased the yield of 2,8-dichlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from the photolysis of triclosan about 7 times at pH=7.

  14. Smelting furnace melt zone wall modification to cope higher production rate operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prayoga, Antonius

    2017-01-01

    PT Smelting adopted the Mitsubishi Continuous Technology for its copper smelter plant which has been operating since 1998. Through a series of expansion projects, the plant annual production capacity increased gradually from 200,000 to 300,000 tons of copper. There were no significant modification works for smelter plant to reach the 50% additional capacity. It was mostly achieved by intensifying the furnaces operation by increasing oxygen content in the furnaces blowing-air. Intensive smelting furnace operation has caused shorter campaign life of some furnace refractory, especially the melt zone wall on the furnace outlet side. During each furnace relining, which is done once in every two years, severe wall erosion was found. The worst condition occurred in year 2007 when the smelting furnace experienced a melt leak through the eroded wall beneath the bath-line coolers. During the 2008 furnace relining, a modification was performed by installing vertical coolers behind the melt zone wall The additional vertical coolers were installed during the 2012 furnace relining to extend the coverage area. The modification improved melt zone wall healthiness significantly by keeping them safely within the two-year campaign life. Recently a modeling study was done to estimate the influences of molten waves on furnace wall erosion. The study was aimed to predict the impact of blowing parameters such as blowing air velocity, on the melt wave character and wall erosion.

  15. State funding for higher education and RN replacement rates by state: a case for nursing by the numbers in state legislatures.

    PubMed

    Bargagliotti, L Antoinette

    2009-01-01

    Amid an enduring nursing shortage and state budget shortfalls, discerning how the percentage of state funding to higher education and other registered nurse (RN) workforce variables may be related to the RN replacement rates (RNRR) in states has important policy implications. Regionally, the age of RNs was inversely related to RNRR. State funding in 2000 significantly predicted the 2004 RNRR, with the percentage of LPNs in 2004 adding to the model. The stability of the model using 2000 and 2004 funding data suggests that state funding creates a climate for RNRR.

  16. An Evaluation of Four Decades of Rate of Return Analysis in Higher Education Policy Making: Weaknesses and Future Prospects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menon, Maria E.

    2003-01-01

    Assesses the importance of rate-of-return (RoR) analysis for planning and policy making in higher education. Reviews methods used and discusses criticisms against RoR in relation to the screening function of education, the measurement of educational costs and benefits, and the pure effect of education on earnings. Recommends extension of RoR…

  17. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates.

    PubMed

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-21

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  18. Estimating shifts in diversification rates based on higher-level phylogenies

    PubMed Central

    Smrckova, Jana

    2016-01-01

    Macroevolutionary studies recently shifted from only reconstructing the past state, i.e. the species phylogeny, to also infer the past speciation and extinction dynamics that gave rise to the phylogeny. Methods for estimating diversification dynamics are sensitive towards incomplete species sampling. We introduce a method to estimate time-dependent diversification rates from phylogenies where clades of a particular age are represented by only one sampled species. A popular example of this type of data is phylogenies on the genus- or family-level, i.e. phylogenies where one species per genus or family is included. We conduct a simulation study to validate our method in a maximum-likelihood framework. Further, this method has already been introduced into the Bayesian package MrBayes, which led to new insights into the evolution of Hymenoptera. PMID:27703054

  19. In vivo sub-femtoliter resolution photoacoustic microscopy with higher frame rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Szu-Yu; Lai, Yu-Hung; Huang, Kai-Chih; Cheng, Yu-Hsiang; Tseng, Tzu-Fang; Sun, Chi-Kuang

    2015-10-01

    Microscopy based on non-fluorescent absorption dye staining is widely used in various fields of biomedicine for 400 years. Unlike its fluorescent counterpart, non-fluorescent absorption microscopy lacks proper methodologies to realize its in vivo applications with a sub-femtoliter 3D resolution. Regardless of the most advanced high-resolution photoacoustic microscopy, sub-femtoliter spatial resolution is still unattainable, and the imaging speed is relatively slow. In this paper, based on the two-photon photoacoustic mechanism, we demonstrated a in vivo label free laser-scanning photoacoustic imaging modality featuring high frame rates and sub-femtoliter 3D resolution simultaneously, which stands as a perfect solution to 3D high resolution non-fluorescent absorption microscopy. Furthermore, we first demonstrated in vivo label-free two-photon acoustic microscopy on the observation of non-fluorescent melanin distribution within mouse skin.

  20. Latitudinal difference in biodiversity caused by higher tropical rate of increase.

    PubMed

    Buzas, Martin A; Collins, Laurel S; Culver, Stephen J

    2002-06-11

    Tropical diversity has generally exceeded temperate diversity in the present and at points in the past, but whether measured differences have remained relatively constant through time has been unknown. Here we examine tropical vs. temperate diversities from the Neogene to Recent using the within-habitat diversity measure Fisher's alpha of Cenozoic benthic foraminifera from the temperate Central Atlantic Coastal Plain and the tropical Central American Isthmus. During the Neogene, the mean value of alpha at temperate latitudes increased 1.4 times or 40%, whereas in the tropics it increased 2.1 times or 106%. Thus, while both areas exhibit an increase of diversity with time, past differences in the rate of increase have generated a more pronounced gradient today (164%) than existed in the Miocene (80%). These data disagree with the suggestion that the world reached an equilibrium number of species during the Paleozoic and demonstrate the need to consider both temperate and tropical components in global diversity assessments.

  1. Joint Prediction of the Effective Population Size and the Rate of Fixation of Deleterious Mutations.

    PubMed

    Santiago, Enrique; Caballero, Armando

    2016-11-01

    Mutation, genetic drift, and selection are considered the main factors shaping genetic variation in nature. There is a lack, however, of general predictions accounting for the mutual interrelation between these factors. In the context of the background selection model, we provide a set of equations for the joint prediction of the effective population size and the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations, which are applicable both to sexual and asexual species. For a population of N haploid individuals and a model of deleterious mutations with effect s appearing with rate U in a genome L Morgans long, the asymptotic effective population size (Ne) and the average number of generations (T) between consecutive fixations can be approximated by [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] The solution is applicable to Muller's ratchet, providing satisfactory approximations to the rate of accumulation of mutations for a wide range of parameters. We also obtain predictions of the effective size accounting for the expected nucleotide diversity. Predictions for sexual populations allow for outlining the general conditions where mutational meltdown occurs. The equations can be extended to any distribution of mutational effects and the consideration of hotspots of recombination, showing that Ne is rather insensitive and not proportional to changes in N for many combinations of parameters. This could contribute to explain the observed small differences in levels of polymorphism between species with very different census sizes.

  2. Full-thickness myotomy is associated with higher rate of postoperative gastroesophageal reflux disease

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xue-Hong; Tan, Yu-Yong; Zhu, Hong-Yi; Li, Chen-Jie; Liu, De-Liang

    2016-01-01

    AIM To compare long-term occurrence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) between two different types of peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) for achalasia. METHODS We included all patients with achalasia who underwent POEM at our hospital from August 2011 to October 2012 and had complete GERD evaluation with ≥ 3 years of follow-up. They were divided into circular or full-thickness myotomy groups according to the depth of myotomy. Demographics, Eckardt score, manometry results, 24-h pH monitoring, and GERD symptoms were recorded and compared between the two groups. RESULTS We studied 56 patients (32 circular myotomy and 24 full-thickness myotomy) with complete GERD evaluation. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of treatment success (defined as Eckardt score ≤ 3), postoperative Eckardt score, mean basal lower esophageal sphincter pressure, and 4-s integrated relaxation pressure (4sIRP). Postoperative abnormal esophageal acid exposure was found in 25 patients (44.6%). A total of 13 patients (23.2%) had GERD symptoms and 12 had esophagitis (21.4%). Clinically relevant GERD (abnormal esophageal acid exposure associated with GERD symptoms and/or esophagitis) was diagnosed in 13 patients (23.2%). Multivariate analysis revealed that full-thickness myotomy and low level of postoperative 4sIRP were predictive factors for clinically relevant GERD. CONCLUSION Efficacy and manometry are comparable between achalasia patients treated with circular or full-thickness myotomy. But patients with full-thickness myotomy and low postoperative 4sIRP have more GERD. PMID:27895430

  3. DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

    SciTech Connect

    McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-01-20

    A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks that are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a

  4. Higher Executive Control and Visual Memory Performance Predict Treatment Completion in Borderline Personality Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Fertuck, Eric A.; Keilp, John; Song, Inkyung; Morris, Melissa C.; Wilson, Scott T.; Brodsky, Beth S.; Stanley, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    Background Non-completion of a prescribed course of treatment occurs in 20–60% of individuals diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD). While symptom severity, personality traits and environmental factors have been implicated as predictors of treatment non-completion (TNC), there have been no studies of neuropsychological predictors in this population. Methods From a randomized controlled trial, a subsample of 31, unmedicated outpatients diagnosed with BPD with recent self-injurious behavior was assessed on 5 neuropsychological domains. Patients were also assessed for general IQ, demographic and other salient clinical variables. Patients were randomized to one of four treatment conditions, which lasted up to 1 year. Number of weeks in treatment (WIT) up to 1 year was utilized as the index of TNC. Results Thirty-three percent of the subsample (n = 12) did not complete 1 year of treatment. However, more WIT were predicted by better baseline executive control (Trails B; p < 0.01) and visual memory performance (Benton visual retention; p < 0.001); other neuropsychological domains did not predict WIT. Conclusion In the treatment of outpatients with BPD, better executive control and visual memory performance predict more WIT. Assessing and addressing these neurocognitive factors in treatment may reduce TNC in this high-risk population. PMID:22116411

  5. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab in HER2-positive breast cancer: pathologic complete response rate, predictive and prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Buzatto, I.P.C.; Ribeiro-Silva, A.; Andrade, J.M.; Carrara, H.H.A.; Silveira, W.A.; Tiezzi, D.G.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to retrospectively review the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate from patients (n=86) with stage II and III HER2-positive breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy at our institution from 2008 to 2013 and to determine possible predictive and prognostic factors. Immunohistochemistry for hormone receptors and Ki-67 was carried out. Clinical and pathological features were analyzed as predictive factors of response to therapy. For survival analysis, we used Kaplan-Meier curves to estimate 5-year survival rates and the log-rank test to compare the curves. The addition of trastuzumab to neoadjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved pCR rate from 4.8 to 46.8%, regardless of the number of preoperative trastuzumab cycles (P=0.0012). Stage II patients achieved a higher response rate compared to stage III (P=0.03). The disease-free and overall survivals were not significantly different between the group of patients that received trastuzumab in the neoadjuvant setting (56.3 and 70% at 5 years, respectively) and the group that initiated it post-operatively (75.8 and 88.7% at 5 years, respectively). Axillary pCR post neoadjuvant chemotherapy with trastuzumab was associated with reduced risk of recurrence (HR=0.34; P=0.03) and death (HR=0.21; P=0.02). In conclusion, we confirmed that trastuzumab improves pCR rates and verified that this improvement occurs even with less than four cycles of the drug. Hormone receptors and Ki-67 expressions were not predictive of response in this subset of patients. Axillary pCR clearly denotes prognosis after neoadjuvant target therapy and should be considered to be a marker of resistance, providing an opportunity to investigate new strategies for HER2-positive treatment. PMID:28146217

  6. Integrative neural networks model for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters for ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atieh, M.; Mehltretter, S. L.; Gharabaghi, B.; Rudra, R.

    2015-12-01

    One of the most uncertain modeling tasks in hydrology is the prediction of ungauged stream sediment load and concentration statistics. This study presents integrated artificial neural networks (ANN) models for prediction of sediment rating curve parameters (rating curve coefficient α and rating curve exponent β) for ungauged basins. The ANN models integrate a comprehensive list of input parameters to improve the accuracy achieved; the input parameters used include: soil, land use, topographic, climatic, and hydrometric data sets. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 2/3 of the dataset of 94 gauged streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/3. The developed models have high correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.86 for α and β, respectively. The ANN model for the rating coefficient α is directly proportional to rainfall erosivity factor, soil erodibility factor, and apportionment entropy disorder index, whereas it is inversely proportional to vegetation cover and mean annual snowfall. The ANN model for the rating exponent β is directly proportional to mean annual precipitation, the apportionment entropy disorder index, main channel slope, standard deviation of daily discharge, and inversely proportional to the fraction of basin area covered by wetlands and swamps. Sediment rating curves are essential tools for the calculation of sediment load, concentration-duration curve (CDC), and concentration-duration-frequency (CDF) analysis for more accurate assessment of water quality for ungauged basins.

  7. Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

    1996-01-01

    We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

  8. Bayesian inference for genomic data integration reduces misclassification rate in predicting protein-protein interactions.

    PubMed

    Xing, Chuanhua; Dunson, David B

    2011-07-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are essential to most fundamental cellular processes. There has been increasing interest in reconstructing PPIs networks. However, several critical difficulties exist in obtaining reliable predictions. Noticeably, false positive rates can be as high as >80%. Error correction from each generating source can be both time-consuming and inefficient due to the difficulty of covering the errors from multiple levels of data processing procedures within a single test. We propose a novel Bayesian integration method, deemed nonparametric Bayes ensemble learning (NBEL), to lower the misclassification rate (both false positives and negatives) through automatically up-weighting data sources that are most informative, while down-weighting less informative and biased sources. Extensive studies indicate that NBEL is significantly more robust than the classic naïve Bayes to unreliable, error-prone and contaminated data. On a large human data set our NBEL approach predicts many more PPIs than naïve Bayes. This suggests that previous studies may have large numbers of not only false positives but also false negatives. The validation on two human PPIs datasets having high quality supports our observations. Our experiments demonstrate that it is feasible to predict high-throughput PPIs computationally with substantially reduced false positives and false negatives. The ability of predicting large numbers of PPIs both reliably and automatically may inspire people to use computational approaches to correct data errors in general, and may speed up PPIs prediction with high quality. Such a reliable prediction may provide a solid platform to other studies such as protein functions prediction and roles of PPIs in disease susceptibility.

  9. Space and time diversity in indoor wireless optical links achieving higher data rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alqudah, Yazan A.

    2013-02-01

    Multispot diffusing configuration (MSDC) in optical wireless links provide uniform optical power needed for multiaccess and spatial dependence that can be used to allow space diversity techniques over the link. The spatial channels are furnished in MSDC through utilizing multibeam transmitter that produces spatially confined diffusing spots, and a multibranch receiver with small enough branch field-of-view (FOV) to restrict the number of diffusing spots within its FOV. Here, we study different encoding techniques that use space and time diversity to reduce the bit error rate. An improved technique, constellation rotation, is proposed for pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) to increase the Euclidian distance between signal points, and thus reduce bit error. Our study shows that when a cap is placed on the amount of power allocated per channel, the performance of the improved 4-PAM using three spatial channels and soft binary decision provide the optimal performance. When the power allocated per user is restricted, the best performance is obtained through soft binary decision and by using symbols identified by their level and spatial channel to carry 2 bits per signal level-channel.

  10. Predicting organic hydrogen atom transfer rate constants using the Marcus cross relation

    PubMed Central

    Warren, Jeffrey J.; Mayer, James M.

    2010-01-01

    Chemical reactions that involve net hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) are ubiquitous in chemistry and biology, from the action of antioxidants to industrial and metalloenzyme catalysis. This report develops and validates a procedure to predict rate constants for HAT reactions of oxyl radicals (RO•) in various media. Our procedure uses the Marcus cross relation (CR) and includes adjustments for solvent hydrogen-bonding effects on both the kinetics and thermodynamics of the reactions. Kinetic solvent effects (KSEs) are included by using Ingold’s model, and thermodynamic solvent effects are accounted for by using an empirical model developed by Abraham. These adjustments are shown to be critical to the success of our combined model, referred to as the CR/KSE model. As an initial test of the CR/KSE model we measured self-exchange and cross rate constants in different solvents for reactions of the 2,4,6-tri-tert-butylphenoxyl radical and the hydroxylamine 2,2′-6,6′-tetramethyl-piperidin-1-ol. Excellent agreement is observed between the calculated and directly determined cross rate constants. We then extend the model to over 30 known HAT reactions of oxyl radicals with OH or CH bonds, including biologically relevant reactions of ascorbate, peroxyl radicals, and α-tocopherol. The CR/KSE model shows remarkable predictive power, predicting rate constants to within a factor of 5 for almost all of the surveyed HAT reactions. PMID:20215463

  11. Usefulness of the heart-rate variability complex for predicting cardiac mortality after acute myocardial infarction

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Previous studies indicate that decreased heart-rate variability (HRV) is related to the risk of death in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, the conventional indices of HRV have poor predictive value for mortality. Our aim was to develop novel predictive models based on support vector machine (SVM) to study the integrated features of HRV for improving risk stratification after AMI. Methods A series of heart-rate dynamic parameters from 208 patients were analyzed after a mean follow-up time of 28 months. Patient electrocardiographic data were classified as either survivals or cardiac deaths. SVM models were established based on different combinations of heart-rate dynamic variables and compared to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate. We tested the accuracy of predictors by assessing the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC). Results We evaluated a SVM algorithm that integrated various electrocardiographic features based on three models: (A) HRV complex; (B) 6 dimension vector; and (C) 8 dimension vector. Mean AUC of HRV complex was 0.8902, 0.8880 for 6 dimension vector and 0.8579 for 8 dimension vector, compared with 0.7424 for LVEF, 0.7932 for SDNN and 0.7399 for DC. Conclusions HRV complex yielded the largest AUC and is the best classifier for predicting cardiac death after AMI. PMID:24886422

  12. Visual ratings of atrophy in MCI: prediction of conversion and relationship with CSF biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Manja; Koedam, Esther L; Barnes, Josephine; Bartlett, Jonathan W; Barkhof, Frederik; Wattjes, Mike P; Schott, Jonathan M; Scheltens, Philip; Fox, Nick C

    2013-01-01

    Medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology may aid the early detection of AD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the relationship between structural and pathological markers is not well understood. Furthermore, while posterior atrophy (PA) is well recognized in AD, its value in predicting conversion from late-onset amnestic MCI to AD is unclear. In this study we used visual ratings of MTA and PA to assess their value in predicting conversion to AD in 394 MCI patients. The relationship of atrophy patterns with CSF Aβ1-42, tau, and p-tau(181) was further investigated in 114 controls, 192 MCI, and 99 AD patients. There was a strong association of MTA ratings with conversion to AD (p < 0.001), with a weaker association for PA ratings (p = 0.047). Specific associations between visual ratings and CSF biomarkers were found; MTA was associated with lower levels of Aβ1-42 in MCI, while PA was associated with elevated levels of tau in MCI and AD, which may reflect widespread neuronal loss including posterior regions. These findings suggest both that posterior atrophy may predict conversion to AD in late-onset MCI, and that there may be differential relationships between CSF biomarkers and regional atrophy patterns.

  13. Feasibility, Reliability and Predictive Value Of In-Ambulance Heart Rate Variability Registration

    PubMed Central

    van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; De Smedt, Ann; Nagels, Guy; Hubloue, Ives; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2016-01-01

    Background Heart rate variability (HRV) is a parameter of autonomic nervous system function. A decrease of HRV has been associated with disease severity, risk of complications and prognosis in several conditions. Objective We aim to investigate the feasibility and the reliability of in-ambulance HRV registration during emergency interventions, and to evaluate the association between prehospital HRV parameters, patient characteristics, vital parameters and short-term outcome. Methods We conducted a prospective study using a non-invasive 2-lead ECG registration device in 55 patients transported by the paramedic intervention team of the Universitair Ziekenhuis Brussel. HRV assessment included time domain parameters, frequency domain parameters, nonlinear analysis, and time-frequency analysis. The correlation between HRV parameters and patient and outcome characteristics was analyzed and compared to controls. Results Artifact and ectopic detection rates were higher in patients during ambulance transportation compared to controls in resting conditions, yet technical reasons precluding in-ambulance HRV analysis occurred in only 9.6% of cases. HRV acquisition was possible without safety issues or interference with routine emergency care. Reliability of the results was considered sufficient for Sample entropy (SampEn), good for the ratio of low frequency and high frequency components (LF/HF ratio) in the frequency and the time frequency domain, and excellent for the triangular interpolation of the NN interval histogram (TINN), and for the short-term scaling exponent of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA α1). HRV indices were significantly reduced inpatients with unfavorable outcome compared to patients with favorable outcome and controls. Multivariate analysis identified lower DFA α1 as an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (OR, 0.155; 95% CI 0.024–0.966; p = 0.049). Conclusion In-ambulance HRV registration is technically and operationally feasible and

  14. Predicting sex offender recidivism. I. Correcting for item overselection and accuracy overestimation in scale development. II. Sampling error-induced attenuation of predictive validity over base rate information.

    PubMed

    Vrieze, Scott I; Grove, William M

    2008-06-01

    The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in

  15. The Role of Prior Mathematical Experience in Predicting Mathematics Performance in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faulkner, Fiona; Hannigan, Ailish; Fitzmaurice, Olivia

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of deficiencies in basic mathematical skills of beginning undergraduates has been documented worldwide. Many different theories have been set out as to why these declines in mathematical competency levels have occurred over time. One such theory is the widening access to higher education which has resulted in a less mathematically…

  16. Predicting Success in Higher Education: The Value of Criterion and Norm-Referenced Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prince, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Higher education's ability to retain students through to graduation appears to be an international challenge. This is also the case in South Africa where only 27% of student complete their studies in minimum time and where 55% are unlikely to ever graduate. These challenges have meant that extended degree programmes, where degrees are formally…

  17. Higher intron loss rate in Arabidopsis thaliana than A. lyrata is consistent with stronger selection for a smaller genome.

    PubMed

    Fawcett, Jeffrey A; Rouzé, Pierre; Van de Peer, Yves

    2012-02-01

    The number of introns varies considerably among different organisms. This can be explained by the differences in the rates of intron gain and loss. Two factors that are likely to influence these rates are selection for or against introns and the mutation rate that generates the novel intron or the intronless copy. Although it has been speculated that stronger selection for a compact genome might result in a higher rate of intron loss and a lower rate of intron gain, clear evidence is lacking, and the role of selection in determining these rates has not been established. Here, we studied the gain and loss of introns in the two closely related species Arabidopsis thaliana and A. lyrata as it was recently shown that A. thaliana has been undergoing a faster genome reduction driven by selection. We found that A. thaliana has lost six times more introns than A. lyrata since the divergence of the two species but gained very few introns. We suggest that stronger selection for genome reduction probably resulted in the much higher intron loss rate in A. thaliana, although further analysis is required as we could not find evidence that the loss rate increased in A. thaliana as opposed to having decreased in A. lyrata compared with the rate in the common ancestor. We also examined the pattern of the intron gains and losses to better understand the mechanisms by which they occur. Microsimilarity was detected between the splice sites of several gained and lost introns, suggesting that nonhomologous end joining repair of double-strand breaks might be a common pathway not only for intron gain but also for intron loss.

  18. Informatics technology mimics ecology: dense, mutualistic collaboration networks are associated with higher publication rates.

    PubMed

    Sorani, Marco D

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature.We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications.Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative.Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  19. Informatics Technology Mimics Ecology: Dense, Mutualistic Collaboration Networks Are Associated with Higher Publication Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sorani, Marco D.

    2012-01-01

    Information technology (IT) adoption enables biomedical research. Publications are an accepted measure of research output, and network models can describe the collaborative nature of publication. In particular, ecological networks can serve as analogies for publication and technology adoption. We constructed network models of adoption of bioinformatics programming languages and health IT (HIT) from the literature. We selected seven programming languages and four types of HIT. We performed PubMed searches to identify publications since 2001. We calculated summary statistics and analyzed spatiotemporal relationships. Then, we assessed ecological models of specialization, cooperativity, competition, evolution, biodiversity, and stability associated with publications. Adoption of HIT has been variable, while scripting languages have experienced rapid adoption. Hospital systems had the largest HIT research corpus, while Perl had the largest language corpus. Scripting languages represented the largest connected network components. The relationship between edges and nodes was linear, though Bioconductor had more edges than expected and Perl had fewer. Spatiotemporal relationships were weak. Most languages shared a bioinformatics specialization and appeared mutualistic or competitive. HIT specializations varied. Specialization was highest for Bioconductor and radiology systems. Specialization and cooperativity were positively correlated among languages but negatively correlated among HIT. Rates of language evolution were similar. Biodiversity among languages grew in the first half of the decade and stabilized, while diversity among HIT was variable but flat. Compared with publications in 2001, correlation with publications one year later was positive while correlation after ten years was weak and negative. Adoption of new technologies can be unpredictable. Spatiotemporal relationships facilitate adoption but are not sufficient. As with ecosystems, dense, mutualistic

  20. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    SciTech Connect

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2011-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa. Conclusions: There is a lack of correlation between

  1. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  2. Prediction of adult Sheldon somatotypes I and II from ratings and measurements at childhood ages.

    PubMed

    Walker, R N; Tanner, J M

    1980-01-01

    The photographs of 82 boys from the Harpenden Growth Study were assigned somatotype ratings at ages 5, 8, 11, 14, and 18 years, using both Sheldon's earlier, anthroposcopic method and his revised, objective method (somatotype II). Inter-judge correlations for the anthroposcopic ratings of the 18-year-olds ranged from 0.79 to 0.93 for the three components; correlations for the somatotype II ratings ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. The three components of the somatotype II ratings showed greater independence of one another than did those of the anthroposcopic method, which tended to collapse towards two dimensions. Correlations for corresponding components between the anthroposcopic and somatotype II ratings at the same age were mostly in the low 0.80s. Mean somatotype ratings changed little with age in either method, but the somatotype II ratings were consistently higher in endomorphy and mesomorphy and lower in ectomorphy than the anthroposcopic ratings. Patterns of inter-age correlations were similar within methods: endomorphy showed lower age-to-age correlations than did mesomorphy and ectomorphy. Correlations of anthroposcopic component ratings with ratings at age 18 increased distinctly from age 5 to age 8, less sharply thereafter. Between ages 8 and 18, within observer, they were 0.72, 0.83, and 0.82, for endomorphy, mesomorphy, and ectomorphy. These 8-to-18 correlations for mesomorphy and ectomorphy are similar in magnitude to those for height.

  3. The Validity of Submaximal Ratings of Perceived Exertion to Predict One Repetition Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Eston, Roger; Evans, Harrison James Llewelyn

    2009-01-01

    The One Repetition Maximum (1-RM) test is commonly used to assess strength. However, direct assessments of 1-RM are time consuming and unsafe for novice lifters. Whilst various equations exist to predict 1-RM, there is limited research on the validity of these equations. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of using sub-maximal ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict 1-RM in young adults, using the Borg 6-20 RPE Scale. Twenty healthy participants (ten male (Mean ± SD, 20.8 ± 0.6 y, 75.7 ± 9.3 kg, 1.8 ± 0.07 m) and ten female (20.3 ± 0.7 y, 68.4 ± 10.0 kg, 1.68 ± 0.03 m)) completed two trials involving resistance exercises for both the upper and lower body. In the first trial the 1-RM for the bilateral biceps curl (BC) and the bilateral knee extension (KE) were determined for each participant. In the second trial, participants performed blinded repetitions which were equivalent to 20, 40 and 60 % of 1-RM for both exercises. The RPE was recorded immediately after two repetitions had been completed at each intensity. The order of intensity of the repetitions was randomly assigned with participants wearing blindfolds to exclude the possibility of pre-determined judgments about load and RPE. Individual RPE recorded at each intensity was subjected to linear regression analysis and the line of best fit was extrapolated to RPE 20 to predict 1-RM in both exercises. There was no significant difference (p > 0.05) between the 1-RM predicted from RPE 20 and measured 1-RM for both exercises for the men and women. Measured and predicted values for men were 46.0 ± 4.6 and 45.2 ± 6. 1 kg for biceps curl, and 46.3 ± 3.8 and 43.0 ± 7.1 kg for knee extension, respectively. Measured and predicted values for women were 18.6 ± 5.7 and 19.3 ± 5.6 kg for biceps curl, and 25.5 ± 9.6 and 27.2 ± 12.6 kg for knee extension, respectively. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients between actual and predicted 1-RM for the BC and KE were 0.97 and 0

  4. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy’s landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk. PMID:27011757

  5. Concerns and perceptions immediately following Superstorm Sandy: ratings for property damage were higher than for health issues.

    PubMed

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    Governmental officials, health and safety professionals, early responders, and the public are interested in the perceptions and concerns of people faced with a crisis, especially during and immediately after a disaster strikes. Reliable information can lead to increased individual and community preparedness for upcoming crises. The objective of this research was to evaluate concerns of coastal and central New Jersey residents within the first 100 days of Superstorm Sandy's landfall. Respondents living in central New Jersey and Jersey shore communities were differentially impacted by the storm, with shore residents having higher evacuation rates (47% vs. 13%), more flood waters in their homes, longer power outages (average 23 vs. 6 days), and longer periods without Internet (29 vs. 6 days). Ratings of concerns varied both among and within categories as a function of location (central vs. coastal New Jersey), stressor level (ranging from 1 to 3 for combinations of power outages, high winds, and flooding), and demographics. Respondents were most concerned about property damage, health, inconveniences, ecological services, and nuclear power plants in that order. Respondents from the shore gave higher ratings to the concerns within each major category, compared to those from central Jersey. Four findings have implications for understanding future risk, recovery, and resiliency: (1) respondents with the highest stressor level (level 3) were more concerned about water damage than others, (2) respondents with flood damage were more concerned about water drainage and mold than others, (3) respondents with the highest stressor levels rated all ecological services higher than others, and (4) shore respondents rated all ecological services higher than central Jersey residents. These data provide information to design future preparedness plans, improve resiliency for future severe weather events, and reduce public health risk.

  6. Simple predictions of maximum transport rate in unsaturated soil and rock

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nimmo, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    In contrast with the extreme variability expected for water and contaminant fluxes in the unsaturated zone, evidence from 64 field tests of preferential flow indicates that the maximum transport speed Vmax, adjusted for episodicity of infiltration, deviates little from a geometric mean of 13 m/d. A model based on constant-speed travel during infiltration pulses of actual or estimated duration can predict Vmax with approximate order-of-magnitude accuracy, irrespective of medium or travel distance, thereby facilitating such problems as the prediction of worst-case contaminant traveltimes. The lesser variability suggests that preferential flow is subject to rate-limiting mechanisms analogous to those that impose a terminal velocity on objects in free fall and to rate-compensating mechanisms analogous to Le Chatlier's principle. A critical feature allowing such mechanisms to dominate may be the presence of interfacial boundaries confined by neither solid material nor capillary forces. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

    SciTech Connect

    Niu, Nina N.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Larvie, Mykol; Curtin, Hugh; Loeffler, Jay S.; McKenna, Michael J.; Shih, Helen A.

    2014-05-01

    Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

  8. A model to predict evaporation rates in habitats used by container-dwelling mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Bartlett-Healy, Kristen; Healy, Sean P; Hamilton, George C

    2011-05-01

    Container-dwelling mosquitoes use a wide variety of container habitats. The bottle cap is often cited as the smallest container habitat used by container species. When containers are small, the habitat conditions can greatly affect evaporation rates that in turn can affect the species dynamics within the container. An evaporation rate model was adapted to predict evaporation rates in mosquito container habitats. In both the laboratory and field, our model was able to predict actual evaporation rates. Examples of how the model may be applied are provided by examining the likelihood of Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Aedes aegypti (L.), and Culex pipiens pipiens (L.) completing their development within small-volume containers under typical environmental conditions and a range of temperatures. Our model suggests that under minimal direct sunlight exposure, both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus could develop within a bottle cap before complete evaporation. Our model shows that under the environmental conditions when a plastic field container was sampled, neither Ae. albopictus or Cx. p. pipiens could complete development in that particular container before the water evaporated. Although rainfall could replenish the habitat, the effects of evaporation would increase larval density, which could in turn further decrease developmental rates.

  9. A predictive model for the temperature relaxation rate in dense plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Daligault, Jerome; Dimonte, Guy

    2008-01-01

    We present and validate a simple model for the electron-ion temperature relaxation rate in plasmas that applies over a wide range of plasma temperatures and densities, including weakly-coupled, non-degenerate as well as strongly-coupled, degenerate plasmas. Electron degeneracy and static correlation effects between electrons and ions are shown to play a cumulative role that, at low temperature, lead to relaxation rates a few times smaller than when these effects are neglected. We predict the evolution of the relaxation in dense hydrogen plasmas from the fully degenerate to the non-degenerate limit.

  10. Specific psychological variables predict quality of diet in women of lower, but not higher, educational attainment

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Wendy; Schlotz, Wolff; Crozier, Sarah; Skinner, Timothy C; Haslam, Cheryl; Robinson, Sian; Inskip, Hazel; Cooper, Cyrus; Barker, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Our previous work found that perceived control over life was a significant predictor of the quality of diet of women of lower educational attainment. In this paper, we explore the influence on quality of diet of a range of psychological and social factors identified during focus group discussions, and specify the way this differs in women of lower and higher educational attainment. We assessed educational attainment, quality of diet, and psycho-social factors in 378 women attending Sure Start Children’s Centres and baby clinics in Southampton, UK. Multiple-group path analysis showed that in women of lower educational attainment, the effect of general self-efficacy on quality of diet was mediated through perceptions of control and through food involvement, but that there were also direct effects of social support for healthy eating and having positive outcome expectancies. There was no effect of self-efficacy, perceived control or outcome expectancies on the quality of diet of women of higher educational attainment, though having more social support and food involvement were associated with improved quality of diet in these women. Our analysis confirms our hypothesis that control-related factors are more important in determining dietary quality in women of lower educational attainment than in women of higher educational attainment. PMID:21078352

  11. Enhanced detection of gametocytes by magnetic deposition microscopy predicts higher potential for Plasmodium falciparum transmission

    PubMed Central

    Karl, Stephan; David, Makindi; Moore, Lee; Grimberg, Brian T; Michon, Pascal; Mueller, Ivo; Zborowski, Maciej; Zimmerman, Peter A

    2008-01-01

    Background Aggregated haemozoin crystals within malaria-infected erythrocytes confer susceptibility of parasitized cells to a magnetic field. Here the utility of this method for diagnosis of human malaria is evaluated in a malaria-endemic region of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Methods and findings Individuals with Plasmodium falciparum malaria symptoms (n = 55) provided samples for conventional blood smear (CBS) and magnetic deposition microscopy (MDM) diagnosis. Standard Giemsa staining and light microscopy was performed to evaluate all preparations. Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia observed on MDM slides was consistently higher than parasitaemia observed by (CBS) for ring (CBS = 2.6 vs. MDM = 3.4%; t-test P-value = 0.13), trophozoite (CBS = 0.5 vs. MDM = 1.6%; t-test P-value = 0.01), schizont (CBS = 0.003 vs. MDM = 0.1%; t-test P-value = 0.08) and gametocyte (CBS = 0.001 vs. MDM = 0.4%; t-test P-value = 0.0002) parasitaemias. Gametocyte prevalence determined by CBS compared to MDM increased from 7.3% to 45%, respectively. Conclusion MDM increased detection sensitivity of P. falciparum-infected, haemozoin-containing erythrocytes from infected humans while maintaining detection of ring-stage parasites. Gametocyte prevalence five-fold higher than observed by CBS suggests higher malaria transmission potential in PNG endemic sites compared to previous estimates. PMID:18439240

  12. Predicting US Infants' and Toddlers' TV/Video Viewing Rates: Mothers' Cognitions and Structural Life Circumstances

    PubMed Central

    Vaala, Sarah E.; Hornik, Robert C.

    2014-01-01

    There has been rising international concern over media use with children under two. As little is known about the factors associated with more or less viewing among very young children, this study examines maternal factors predictive of TV/video viewing rates among American infants and toddlers. Guided by the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, this survey study examines relationships between children's rates of TV/video viewing and their mothers' structural life circumstances (e.g., number of children in the home; mother's screen use), and cognitions (e.g., attitudes; norms). Results suggest that mothers' structural circumstances and cognitions respectively contribute independent explanatory power to the prediction of children's TV/video viewing. Influence of structural circumstances is partially mediated through cognitions. Mothers' attitudes as well as their own TV/video viewing behavior were particularly predictive of children's viewing. Implications of these findings for international efforts to understand and reduce infant/toddler TV/video exposure are discussed. PMID:25489335

  13. Personalized Prediction of Proliferation Rates and Metabolic Liabilities in Cancer Biopsies.

    PubMed

    Diener, Christian; Resendis-Antonio, Osbaldo

    2016-01-01

    Cancer is a heterogeneous disease and its genetic and metabolic mechanism may manifest differently in each patient. This creates a demand for studies that can characterize phenotypic traits of cancer on a per-sample basis. Combining two large data sets, the NCI60 cancer cell line panel, and The Cancer Genome Atlas, we used a linear interaction model to predict proliferation rates for more than 12,000 cancer samples across 33 different cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas. The predicted proliferation rates are associated with patient survival and cancer stage and show a strong heterogeneity in proliferative capacity within and across different cancer panels. We also show how the obtained proliferation rates can be incorporated into genome-scale metabolic reconstructions to obtain the metabolic fluxes for more than 3000 cancer samples that identified specific metabolic liabilities for nine cancer panels. Here we found that affected pathways coincided with the literature, with pentose phosphate pathway, retinol, and branched-chain amino acid metabolism being the most panel-specific alterations and fatty acid metabolism and ROS detoxification showing homogeneous metabolic activities across all cancer panels. The presented strategy has potential applications in personalized medicine since it can leverage gene expression signatures for cell line based prediction of additional metabolic properties which might help in constraining personalized metabolic models and improve the identification of metabolic alterations in cancer for individual patients.

  14. Personalized Prediction of Proliferation Rates and Metabolic Liabilities in Cancer Biopsies

    PubMed Central

    Diener, Christian; Resendis-Antonio, Osbaldo

    2016-01-01

    Cancer is a heterogeneous disease and its genetic and metabolic mechanism may manifest differently in each patient. This creates a demand for studies that can characterize phenotypic traits of cancer on a per-sample basis. Combining two large data sets, the NCI60 cancer cell line panel, and The Cancer Genome Atlas, we used a linear interaction model to predict proliferation rates for more than 12,000 cancer samples across 33 different cancers from The Cancer Genome Atlas. The predicted proliferation rates are associated with patient survival and cancer stage and show a strong heterogeneity in proliferative capacity within and across different cancer panels. We also show how the obtained proliferation rates can be incorporated into genome-scale metabolic reconstructions to obtain the metabolic fluxes for more than 3000 cancer samples that identified specific metabolic liabilities for nine cancer panels. Here we found that affected pathways coincided with the literature, with pentose phosphate pathway, retinol, and branched-chain amino acid metabolism being the most panel-specific alterations and fatty acid metabolism and ROS detoxification showing homogeneous metabolic activities across all cancer panels. The presented strategy has potential applications in personalized medicine since it can leverage gene expression signatures for cell line based prediction of additional metabolic properties which might help in constraining personalized metabolic models and improve the identification of metabolic alterations in cancer for individual patients. PMID:28082911

  15. Phenotypic engineering of sperm-production rate confirms evolutionary predictions of sperm competition theory

    PubMed Central

    Sekii, Kiyono; Vizoso, Dita B.; Kuales, Georg; De Mulder, Katrien; Ladurner, Peter; Schärer, Lukas

    2013-01-01

    Sperm production is a key male reproductive trait and an important parameter in sperm competition theory. Under sperm competition, paternity success is predicted to depend strongly on male allocation to sperm production. Furthermore, because sperm production is inherently costly, individuals should economize in sperm expenditure, and conditional adjustment of the copulation frequency according to their sperm availability may be expected. However, experimental studies showing effects of sperm production on mating behaviour and paternity success have so far been scarce, mainly because sperm production is difficult to manipulate directly in animals. Here, we used phenotypic engineering to manipulate sperm-production rate, by employing dose-dependent RNA interference (RNAi) of a spermatogenesis-specific gene, macbol1, in the free-living flatworm Macrostomum lignano. We demonstrate (i) that our novel dose-dependent RNAi approach allows us to induce high variability in sperm-production rate; (ii) that a reduced sperm-production rate is associated with a decreased copulation frequency, suggesting conditional adjustment of mating behaviour; and (iii) that both sperm production and copulation frequency are important determinants of paternity success in a competitive situation, as predicted by sperm competition theory. Our study clearly documents the potential of phenotypic engineering via dose-dependent RNAi to test quantitative predictions of evolutionary theory. PMID:23446521

  16. Higher-order Mode Calculations, predictions and Overview of Damping Schemes for ERLs

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Rimmer

    2005-03-19

    This paper gives a brief review of computational methods for calculating higher-order mode (HOM) impedances for RF structures, the cases for which they are appropriate and some comparisons with measurements. An overview of damping schemes suitable for moderate to high current energy recovered linacs (ERL's), is presented, with a discussion of the pro's and con's of each. The influence of number of cells per cavity, cell shape and cell-to-cell coupling are described. The Jefferson Lab Ampere-class cryomodule concept is presented as an example and the issue of HOM power is highlighted.

  17. Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words

    PubMed Central

    Vejdemo, Susanne; Hörberg, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For the 167 content items in the Swadesh list, data was gathered on the features of lexical replacement rate, word class, frequency, age of acquisition, synonyms, arousal, imageability and average mutual information, either from published databases or gathered from corpora and lexica. A linear regression model shows that, in addition to frequency, synonyms, senses and imageability are significantly related to the lexical replacement rate of content words–in particular the number of synonyms that a word has. The model shows no differences in lexical replacement rate between word classes, and outperforms a model with word class and word frequency predictors only. PMID:26820737

  18. Predictive Models of Recombination Rate Variation across the Drosophila melanogaster Genome

    PubMed Central

    Adrian, Andrew B.; Corchado, Johnny Cruz; Comeron, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    In all eukaryotic species examined, meiotic recombination, and crossovers in particular, occur non‐randomly along chromosomes. The cause for this non-random distribution remains poorly understood but some specific DNA sequence motifs have been shown to be enriched near crossover hotspots in a number of species. We present analyses using machine learning algorithms to investigate whether DNA motif distribution across the genome can be used to predict crossover variation in Drosophila melanogaster, a species without hotspots. Our study exposes a combinatorial non-linear influence of motif presence able to account for a significant fraction of the genome-wide variation in crossover rates at all genomic scales investigated, from 20% at 5-kb to almost 70% at 2,500-kb scale. The models are particularly predictive for regions with the highest and lowest crossover rates and remain highly informative after removing sub-telomeric and -centromeric regions known to have strongly reduced crossover rates. Transcriptional activity during early meiosis and differences in motif use between autosomes and the X chromosome add to the predictive power of the models. Moreover, we show that population-specific differences in crossover rates can be partly explained by differences in motif presence. Our results suggest that crossover distribution in Drosophila is influenced by both meiosis-specific chromatin dynamics and very local constitutive open chromatin associated with DNA motifs that prevent nucleosome stabilization. These findings provide new information on the genetic factors influencing variation in recombination rates and a baseline to study epigenetic mechanisms responsible for plastic recombination as response to different biotic and abiotic conditions and stresses. PMID:27492232

  19. Prehospital Heart Rate and Blood Pressure Increase the Positive Predictive Value of the Glasgow Coma Scale for High-Mortality Traumatic Brain Injury

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-15

    Prehospital Heart Rate and Blood Pressure Increase the Positive Predictive Value of the Glasgow Coma Scale for High-Mortality Traumatic Brain Injury...pressures have both been associated with higher mortality for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We undertook a retrospective analysis of 1384...pressure; Glasgow Coma Scale; heart rate; prehospital; traumatic brain injury Introduction The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was developed to stan-dardize the

  20. Comparison of Reference Evapotranspiration Rates Measured by a Weighing Lysimeter and Meteorological Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, P. J.; Trout, T. J.; Ayars, J. E.

    2006-12-01

    Weighing lysimeters make direct measurements of evapotranspiration rate, providing data that may be used to assess predictions of evapotranspiration rate calculated from meteorological data. A partially-buried lysimeter located at the University of California West Side Research and Extension Center is near the center of a tall fescue grass field providing a 70 m fetch. A California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) weather station is installed 7 m from the lysimeter. Tall fescue grass grown in the lysimeter is cut weekly to a height of 0.1 m as is the surrounding grass. Daytime subsurface drip irrigation of the lysimeter is regulated to meet the evapotranspirative demand. CIMIS hourly predictions of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) are based on the Pruitt-Doorenbos (PD) and Penman-Monteith (PM) models. Our objective was a comparison of the predictions with hourly evapotranspiration rates calculated from lysimeter data for 2004-05. After correcting for lysimeter drainage, a 7-point Savitsky-Golay filter computed the derivative providing the hourly evapotranspiration rate. CIMIS hourly ETo predictions plotted against lysimeter ETo almost matched a 1:1 line indicating that the CIMIS predictions were accurate for the large data set but the scatter was substantial. The data were selected by hour and a best-fit line was calculated assuming a zero intercept. Slopes of best-fit lines to CIMIS PD ETo vs. lysimeter ETo for data representing each hour from 9 AM through 3 PM were greater than one, reaching a maximum of 1.13, but were consistently less than one at other times during the day. In contrast, the slopes of CIMIS PM ETo vs. lysimeter ETo were close to one between 10 AM and 3 PM but increased in the late afternoon reaching a maximum of 1.11. The PM model includes soil heat flux but the PD model does not. The difference in the slopes during the middle part of the day could be due to lack of downward heat flux in the PD model compensated by an

  1. Low Reproductive Rate Predicts Species Sensitivity to Habitat Loss: A Meta-Analysis of Wetland Vertebrates

    PubMed Central

    Quesnelle, Pauline E.; Lindsay, Kathryn E.; Fahrig, Lenore

    2014-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species’ reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists. PMID:24651675

  2. Low reproductive rate predicts species sensitivity to habitat loss: a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Quesnelle, Pauline E; Lindsay, Kathryn E; Fahrig, Lenore

    2014-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species' reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists.

  3. Measuring the activities of higher organisms in activated sludge by means of mechanical shearing pretreatment and oxygen uptake rate.

    PubMed

    Hao, Xiaodi; Wang, Qilin; Cao, Yali; van Loosdrecht, Mark C M

    2010-07-01

    A pretreatment method was developed to assess the activities of higher organisms. The method is based on mechanical shearing to damage the large cells of the protozoan and metazoan community in activated sludge. The procedure was confirmed through experimentation to be effective in determining the activities of higher organisms by comparing oxygen uptake rates (OURs) before and after the higher organisms were eradicated. Shearing led to disintegration of flocs, which could be effectively reconstituted by centrifugation. The reconstitution of the sludge flocs was essential since otherwise the activity of the floc mass would be too high due to lack of diffusion limitation. Mechanical shearing had no influence on the morphology, quantity and specific activity of yeasts, and it was inferred that bacteria smaller than yeasts in size would also not be influenced by the applied shearing procedure. Moreover, the effect of filamentous organisms on the measured activities of higher organisms was experimentally demonstrated and analyzed, and determined to be so weak that it could be ignored. Based on these tests, five typical activated sludge processes were selected to measure the contribution of higher organisms to the original OUR. The measured activities of higher organisms ranged from 9.4 to 25.0% of the original OURs.

  4. Higher magnitude cash payments improve research follow-up rates without increasing drug use or perceived coercion.

    PubMed

    Festinger, David S; Marlowe, Douglas B; Dugosh, Karen L; Croft, Jason R; Arabia, Patricia L

    2008-07-01

    In a prior study [Festinger, D.S., Marlowe, D.B., Croft, J.R., Dugosh, K.L., Mastro, N.K., Lee, P.A., DeMatteo, D.S., Patapis, N.S., 2005. Do research payments precipitate drug use or coerce participation? Drug Alcohol Depend. 78 (3) 275-281] we found that neither the mode (cash vs. gift card) nor magnitude ($10, $40, or $70) of research follow-up payments increased rates of new drug use or perceptions of coercion. However, higher payments and payments in cash were associated with better follow-up attendance, reduced tracking efforts, and improved participant satisfaction with the study. The present study extended those findings to higher payment magnitudes. Participants from an urban outpatient substance abuse treatment program were randomly assigned to receive $70, $100, $130, or $160 in either cash or a gift card for completing a follow-up assessment at 6 months post-admission (n congruent with 50 per cell). Apart from the payment incentives, all participants received a standardized, minimal platform of follow-up efforts. Findings revealed that neither the magnitude nor mode of payment had a significant effect on new drug use or perceived coercion. Consistent with our previous findings, higher payments and cash payments resulted in significantly higher follow-up rates and fewer tracking calls. In addition participants receiving cash vs. gift cards were more likely to use their payments for essential, non-luxury purchases. Follow-up rates for participants receiving cash payments of $100, $130, and $160 approached or exceeded the FDA required minimum of 70% for studies to be considered in evaluations of new medications. This suggests that the use of higher magnitude payments and cash payments may be effective strategies for obtaining more representative follow-up samples without increasing new drug use or perceptions of coercion.

  5. Activity in the human brain predicting differential heart rate responses to emotional facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Critchley, Hugo D; Rotshtein, Pia; Nagai, Yoko; O'Doherty, John; Mathias, Christopher J; Dolan, Raymond J

    2005-02-01

    The James-Lange theory of emotion proposes that automatically generated bodily reactions not only color subjective emotional experience of stimuli, but also necessitate a mechanism by which these bodily reactions are differentially generated to reflect stimulus quality. To examine this putative mechanism, we simultaneously measured brain activity and heart rate to identify regions where neural activity predicted the magnitude of heart rate responses to emotional facial expressions. Using a forewarned reaction time task, we showed that orienting heart rate acceleration to emotional face stimuli was modulated as a function of the emotion depicted. The magnitude of evoked heart rate increase, both across the stimulus set and within each emotion category, was predicted by level of activity within a matrix of interconnected brain regions, including amygdala, insula, anterior cingulate, and brainstem. We suggest that these regions provide a substrate for translating visual perception of emotional facial expression into differential cardiac responses and thereby represent an interface for selective generation of visceral reactions that contribute to the embodied component of emotional reaction.

  6. Kinetic rate constant prediction supports the conformational selection mechanism of protein binding.

    PubMed

    Moal, Iain H; Bates, Paul A

    2012-01-01

    The prediction of protein-protein kinetic rate constants provides a fundamental test of our understanding of molecular recognition, and will play an important role in the modeling of complex biological systems. In this paper, a feature selection and regression algorithm is applied to mine a large set of molecular descriptors and construct simple models for association and dissociation rate constants using empirical data. Using separate test data for validation, the predicted rate constants can be combined to calculate binding affinity with accuracy matching that of state of the art empirical free energy functions. The models show that the rate of association is linearly related to the proportion of unbound proteins in the bound conformational ensemble relative to the unbound conformational ensemble, indicating that the binding partners must adopt a geometry near to that of the bound prior to binding. Mirroring the conformational selection and population shift mechanism of protein binding, the models provide a strong separate line of evidence for the preponderance of this mechanism in protein-protein binding, complementing structural and theoretical studies.

  7. Testing a Predictive Theoretical Model for the Mass Loss Rates of Cool Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranmer, Steven R.; Saar, Steven H.

    2011-11-01

    The basic mechanisms responsible for producing winds from cool, late-type stars are still largely unknown. We take inspiration from recent progress in understanding solar wind acceleration to develop a physically motivated model of the time-steady mass loss rates of cool main-sequence stars and evolved giants. This model follows the energy flux of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence from a subsurface convection zone to its eventual dissipation and escape through open magnetic flux tubes. We show how Alfvén waves and turbulence can produce winds in either a hot corona or a cool extended chromosphere, and we specify the conditions that determine whether or not coronal heating occurs. These models do not utilize arbitrary normalization factors, but instead predict the mass loss rate directly from a star's fundamental properties. We take account of stellar magnetic activity by extending standard age-activity-rotation indicators to include the evolution of the filling factor of strong photospheric magnetic fields. We compared the predicted mass loss rates with observed values for 47 stars and found significantly better agreement than was obtained from the popular scaling laws of Reimers, Schröder, and Cuntz. The algorithm used to compute cool-star mass loss rates is provided as a self-contained and efficient computer code. We anticipate that the results from this kind of model can be incorporated straightforwardly into stellar evolution calculations and population synthesis techniques.

  8. A preliminary study of a running speed based heart rate prediction during an incremental treadmill exercise.

    PubMed

    Dae-Geun Jang; Byung-Hoon Ko; Sub Sunoo; Sang-Seok Nam; Hun-Young Park; Sang-Kon Bae

    2016-08-01

    This preliminary study investigates feasibility of a running speed based heart rate (HR) prediction. It is basically motivated from the assumption that there is a significant relationship between HR and the running speed. In order to verify the assumption, HR and running speed data from 217 subjects of varying aerobic capabilities were simultaneously collected during an incremental treadmill exercise. A running speed was defined as a treadmill speed and its corresponding heart rate was calculated by averaging the last one minute HR values of each session. The feasibility was investigated by assessing a correlation between the heart rate and the running speed using inter-subject (between-subject) and intra-subject (within-subject) datasets with regression orders of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Furthermore, HR differences between actual and predicted HRs were also employed to investigate the feasibility of the running speed in predicting heart rate. In the inter-subject analysis, a strong positive correlation and a reasonable HR difference (r = 0.866, 16.55±11.24 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.871, 15.93±11.49 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.897, 13.98±10.80 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.899, 13.93±10.64 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained, and a very high positive correlation and a very low HR difference (r = 0.978, 6.46±3.89 bpm @ 1st order; r = 0.987, 5.14±2.87 bpm @ 2nd order; r = 0.996, 2.61±2.03 bpm @ 3rd order; and r = 0.997, 2.04±1.73 bpm @ 4th order) were obtained in the intra-subject analysis. It can therefore be concluded that 1) heart rate is highly correlated with a running speed; 2) heart rate can be approximately estimated by a running speed with a proper statistical model (e.g., 3rd-order regression); and 3) an individual HR-speed calibration process may improve the prediction accuracy.

  9. Implementation of Improved Transverse Shear Calculations and Higher Order Laminate Theory Into Strain Rate Dependent Analyses of Polymer Matrix Composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Lin-Fa; Kim, Soo; Chattopadhyay, Aditi; Goldberg, Robert K.

    2004-01-01

    A numerical procedure has been developed to investigate the nonlinear and strain rate dependent deformation response of polymer matrix composite laminated plates under high strain rate impact loadings. A recently developed strength of materials based micromechanics model, incorporating a set of nonlinear, strain rate dependent constitutive equations for the polymer matrix, is extended to account for the transverse shear effects during impact. Four different assumptions of transverse shear deformation are investigated in order to improve the developed strain rate dependent micromechanics model. The validities of these assumptions are investigated using numerical and theoretical approaches. A method to determine through the thickness strain and transverse Poisson's ratio of the composite is developed. The revised micromechanics model is then implemented into a higher order laminated plate theory which is modified to include the effects of inelastic strains. Parametric studies are conducted to investigate the mechanical response of composite plates under high strain rate loadings. Results show the transverse shear stresses cannot be neglected in the impact problem. A significant level of strain rate dependency and material nonlinearity is found in the deformation response of representative composite specimens.

  10. Speed discrimination predicts word but not pseudo-word reading rate in adults and children

    PubMed Central

    Main, Keith L.; Pestilli, Franco; Mezer, Aviv; Yeatman, Jason; Martin, Ryan; Phipps, Stephanie; Wandell, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Word familiarity may affect magnocellular processes of word recognition. To explore this idea, we measured reading rate, speed-discrimination, and contrast detection thresholds in adults and children with a wide range of reading abilities. We found that speed-discrimination thresholds are higher in children than in adults and are correlated with age. Speed discrimination thresholds are also correlated with reading rate, but only for words, not for pseudo-words. Conversely, we found no correlation between contrast sensitivity and reading rate and no correlation between speed discrimination thresholds WASI subtest scores. These findings support the position that reading rate is influenced by magnocellular circuitry attuned to the recognition of familiar word-forms. PMID:25278418

  11. Efficacy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound washout rate in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma differentiation.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yan; Qin, Xia-Chuan; Luo, Yan; Li, Yong-Zhong; Zhou, Xiang

    2015-06-01

    The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the efficacy of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) washout rate in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differentiation. Two hundred seventy-one patients underwent liver resection for HCC between April 2008 and December 2012 after being examined by CEUS using the contrast agent SonoVue with a low mechanical index (<0.1) in a routine procedure. Contrast agent washout rates obtained from video images were divided into four categories from slow to fast: WR1 = no washout in all phases (slowest); WR2 = washout after 120 s from contrast injection (late-phase washout); WR3 = washout between 41 and 120 s from contrast injection (portal venous washout); WR4 = washout before 40 s from contrast injection (fastest washout rate). HCC nodules were graded as well, moderately and poorly differentiated. Spearman rank correlation and χ(2)-tests were used to assess group relationships and differences. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the diagnostic predictive value of CEUS. Among the 271 patients, 18 (6.6%) had well differentiated, 150 (55.4%) had moderately differentiated and 103 (38.0%) had poorly differentiated HCC. Statistical tests indicated that washout rate was significantly correlated with tumor differentiation (p < 0.05), and the poorly differentiated HCCs had earlier washout. At the cutoff point of WR4, CEUS based on washout rate performed poorly in distinguishing poorly differentiated from moderately and well-differentiated HCCs, with a sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (area under the curve) of 24%, 97% and 0.68, respectively. However, at the cutoff point of WR2, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of CEUS in differentiating well-differentiated HCC from other HCCs were significantly better: 98%, 78% and 0.96, respectively. Thus, CEUS washout rate may have a role in identifying patients with well-differentiated HCC.

  12. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    PubMed

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  13. Does the pancreatic volume reduction rate using serial computed tomographic volumetry predict new onset diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy?

    PubMed Central

    Yun, Sung Pil; Seo, Hyung-Il; Kim, Suk; Kim, Dong Uk; Baek, Dong Hoon

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Volume reduction of the pancreatic tissues following a pancreatectomy can lead to the deterioration of glucose homeostasis. This is defined as pancreatogenic diabetes mellitus (DM). The objective of this study was to investigate the occurrence of new-onset DM (NODM) and evaluate the risk factors, including the pancreas volume reduction rate in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Sixty-six patients without preoperative DM underwent PD for periampullary tumors between August 2007 and December 2012 and were included in this analysis. These patients underwent follow-up tests and abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan 7 days, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months after the operation. The pancreas volume reduction rate was calculated by CT volumetry. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the postoperative development of DM. After PD, newly diagnosed DM occurred in 16 patients (24.2%). The incidence of DM was highest among patients with carcinomas with an advanced T stage. The pancreatic volume reduction rate after 6 and 12 months in the NODM group was significantly higher than the normal glucose group in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM (P = 0.002). This study suggests that the pancreatic volume reduction rate 6 months after PD was the only significant predictive factor for the development of NODM. CT volumetry of the pancreas may be useful as a predictor of NODM after PD. PMID:28353594

  14. A QSAR for the hydroxyl radical reaction rate constant: validation, domain of application, and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Öberg, Tomas

    A large number of anthropogenic organic chemicals are emitted into the troposphere. Reactions with the hydroxyl radical are a dominant removal pathway for most organic compounds, but experimentally determined gas-phase reaction rate constants are only available for about 750 compounds. The lack of experimental data increases the importance of applying quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) to evaluate and predict reactivities. It is generally acknowledged that these empirical relationships are valid only within the same domain for which they were developed. However, model validation is sometimes neglected and the application domain is not always well defined. The purpose of this paper is to outline how validation and domain definition can facilitate the modeling and prediction of the hydroxyl radical reaction rates for a large database. A substantial number of theoretical descriptors (867) were generated from 2D molecular structures for compounds present in the Syracuse Research Corporation's PhysProp Database. A QSAR model was developed for the hydroxyl radical reaction rate constant using a projection-based regression technique, partial least squares regression (PLSR). The PLSR model was subsequently validated with an external test set. The main factors of variation could be attributed to two reaction pathways, hydrogen atom abstraction and addition to double bonds or aromatic systems. A set of 17 293 compounds, drawn from the PhysProp Database, was projected onto the PLSR model and 74% were inside the applicability domain. The predicted hydroxyl reaction rates for 25% of these compounds were slow or negligible, with atmospheric half-lives in the range from days to years. Finally, the list of persistent organic compounds was matched against the OECD list of high production volume chemicals (HPVC). Together with the experimental data, nearly three hundred compounds were identified as both persistent and in high volume production.

  15. Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

    2015-05-01

    The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies.

  16. The effect of differential growth rates across plants on spectral predictions of physiological parameters.

    PubMed

    Rapaport, Tal; Hochberg, Uri; Rachmilevitch, Shimon; Karnieli, Arnon

    2014-01-01

    Leaves of various ages and positions in a plant's canopy can present distinct physiological, morphological and anatomical characteristics, leading to complexities in selecting a single leaf for spectral representation of an entire plant. A fortiori, as growth rates between canopies differ, spectral-based comparisons across multiple plants--often based on leaves' position but not age--becomes an even more challenging mission. This study explores the effect of differential growth rates on the reflectance variability between leaves of different canopies, and its implication on physiological predictions made by widely-used spectral indices. Two distinct irrigation treatments were applied for one month, in order to trigger the formation of different growth rates between two groups of grapevines. Throughout the experiment, the plants were physiologically and morphologically monitored, while leaves from every part of their canopies were spectrally and histologically sampled. As the control vines were constantly developing new leaves, the water deficit plants were experiencing growth inhibition, resulting in leaves of different age at similar nodal position across the treatments. This modification of the age-position correlation was characterized by a near infrared reflectance difference between younger and older leaves, which was found to be exponentially correlated (R(2) = 0.98) to the age-dependent area of intercellular air spaces within the spongy parenchyma. Overall, the foliage of the control plant became more spectrally variable, creating complications for intra- and inter-treatment leaf-based comparisons. Of the derived indices, the Structure-Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) was found indifferent to the age-position effect, allowing the treatments to be compared at any nodal position, while a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based stomatal conductance prediction was substantially affected by differential growth rates. As various biotic and abiotic

  17. The Effect of Differential Growth Rates across Plants on Spectral Predictions of Physiological Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Rapaport, Tal; Hochberg, Uri; Rachmilevitch, Shimon; Karnieli, Arnon

    2014-01-01

    Leaves of various ages and positions in a plant's canopy can present distinct physiological, morphological and anatomical characteristics, leading to complexities in selecting a single leaf for spectral representation of an entire plant. A fortiori, as growth rates between canopies differ, spectral-based comparisons across multiple plants – often based on leaves' position but not age – becomes an even more challenging mission. This study explores the effect of differential growth rates on the reflectance variability between leaves of different canopies, and its implication on physiological predictions made by widely-used spectral indices. Two distinct irrigation treatments were applied for one month, in order to trigger the formation of different growth rates between two groups of grapevines. Throughout the experiment, the plants were physiologically and morphologically monitored, while leaves from every part of their canopies were spectrally and histologically sampled. As the control vines were constantly developing new leaves, the water deficit plants were experiencing growth inhibition, resulting in leaves of different age at similar nodal position across the treatments. This modification of the age-position correlation was characterized by a near infrared reflectance difference between younger and older leaves, which was found to be exponentially correlated (R2 = 0.98) to the age-dependent area of intercellular air spaces within the spongy parenchyma. Overall, the foliage of the control plant became more spectrally variable, creating complications for intra- and inter-treatment leaf-based comparisons. Of the derived indices, the Structure-Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) was found indifferent to the age-position effect, allowing the treatments to be compared at any nodal position, while a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based stomatal conductance prediction was substantially affected by differential growth rates. As various biotic and

  18. Prediction of road traffic death rate using neural networks optimised by genetic algorithm.

    PubMed

    Jafari, Seyed Ali; Jahandideh, Sepideh; Jahandideh, Mina; Asadabadi, Ebrahim Barzegari

    2015-01-01

    Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are realised as a main cause of public health problems at global, regional and national levels. Therefore, prediction of road traffic death rate will be helpful in its management. Based on this fact, we used an artificial neural network model optimised through Genetic algorithm to predict mortality. In this study, a five-fold cross-validation procedure on a data set containing total of 178 countries was used to verify the performance of models. The best-fit model was selected according to the root mean square errors (RMSE). Genetic algorithm, as a powerful model which has not been introduced in prediction of mortality to this extent in previous studies, showed high performance. The lowest RMSE obtained was 0.0808. Such satisfactory results could be attributed to the use of Genetic algorithm as a powerful optimiser which selects the best input feature set to be fed into the neural networks. Seven factors have been known as the most effective factors on the road traffic mortality rate by high accuracy. The gained results displayed that our model is very promising and may play a useful role in developing a better method for assessing the influence of road traffic mortality risk factors.

  19. Clinical application of fluctuation dissipation theory - Prediction of heart rate response to spontaneous breathing trial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niestemski, Liang R.; Chen, Man; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-03-01

    Contrary to the traditional view of the healthy physiological state as being a single static state, variation in physiologic variables has more recently been suggested to be a key component of the healthy state. Indeed, aging and disease are characterized by a loss of such variability. We apply the conceptual framework of fluctuation-dissipation theory (FDT) to predict the response to a common clinical intervention from historical fluctuations in physiologic time series data. The non-equilibrium FDT relates the response of a system to a perturbation to natural fluctuations in the stationary state of the system. We seek to understand with the FDT a common clinical perturbation, the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT), in which mechanical ventilation is briefly suspended while the patient breathes freely for a period of time. As a stress upon the heart of the patient, the SBT can be characterized as a perturbation of heart rate dynamics. A non-equilibrium, but steady-state FDT allows us to predict the heart rate recovery after the SBT stress. We show that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by this approach. This mathematical framework may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  20. Prediction of maximal or peak oxygen uptake from ratings of perceived exertion.

    PubMed

    Coquart, Jérémy B; Garcin, Murielle; Parfitt, Gaynor; Tourny-Chollet, Claire; Eston, Roger G

    2014-05-01

    Maximal or peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2 max and V˙O2 peak , respectively) are commonly measured during graded exercise tests (GXTs) to assess cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), to prescribe exercise intensity and/or to evaluate the effects of training. However, direct measurement of CRF requires a GXT to volitional exhaustion, which may not always be well accepted by athletes or which should be avoided in some clinical populations. Consequently, numerous studies have proposed various sub-maximal exercise tests to predict V˙O2 max or V˙O2 peak . Because of the strong link between ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) and oxygen uptake (V˙O2), it has been proposed that the individual relationship between RPE and V˙O2 (RPE:V˙O2) can be used to predict V˙O2 max (or V˙O2 peak) from data measured during submaximal exercise tests. To predict V˙O2 max or V˙O2 peak from these linear regressions, two procedures may be identified: an estimation procedure or a production procedure. The estimation procedure is a passive process in which the individual is typically asked to rate how hard an exercise bout feels according to the RPE scale during each stage of a submaximal GXT. The production procedure is an active process in which the individual is asked to self-regulate and maintain an exercise intensity corresponding to a prescribed RPE. This procedure is referred to as a perceptually regulated exercise test (PRET). Recently, prediction of V˙O2max or V˙O2 peak from RPE:V˙O2 measured during both GXT and PRET has received growing interest. A number of studies have tested the validity, reliability and sensitivity of predicted V˙O2 max or V˙O2 peak from RPE:V˙O2 extrapolated to the theoretical V˙O2 max at RPE20 (or RPE19). This review summarizes studies that have used this predictive method during submaximal estimation or production procedures in various populations (i.e., sedentary individuals, athletes and pathological populations). The accuracy of the methods is

  1. Pain predictability reverses valence ratings of a relief-associated stimulus

    PubMed Central

    Andreatta, Marta; Mühlberger, Andreas; Glotzbach-Schoon, Evelyn; Pauli, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Relief from pain is positively valenced and entails reward-like properties. Notably, stimuli that became associated with pain relief elicit reward-like implicit responses too, but are explicitly evaluated by humans as aversive. Since the unpredictability of pain makes pain more aversive, this study examined the hypotheses that the predictability of pain also modulates the valence of relief-associated stimuli. In two studies, we presented one conditioned stimulus (FORWARDCS+) before a painful unconditioned stimulus (US), another stimulus (BACKWARDCS+) after the painful US, and a third stimulus (CS−) was never associated with the US. In Study 1, FORWARDCS+ predicted half of the USs while the other half was delivered unwarned and followed by BACKWARDCS+. In Study 2, all USs were predicted by FORWARDCS+ and followed by BACKWARDCS+. In Study 1 both FORWARDCS+ and BACKWARDCS+ were rated as negatively valenced and high arousing after conditioning, while BACKWARDCS+ in Study 2 acquired positive valence and low arousal. Startle amplitude was significantly attenuated to BACKWARDCS+ compared to FORWARDCS+ in Study 2, but did not differ among CSs in Study 1. In summary, predictability of aversive events reverses the explicit valence of a relief-associated stimulus. PMID:24068989

  2. Prediction and optimization of the recovery rate in centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piao, Linfeng; Park, Hyungmin; Jo, Chris

    2016-11-01

    We present a theoretical model of the recovery rate of platelet and white blood cell in the process of centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP). For the practically used conditions in the field, the separation process is modeled as a one-dimensional particle sedimentation; a quasi-linear partial differential equation is derived based on the kinematic-wave theory. This is solved to determine the interface positions between supernatant-suspension and suspension-sediment, used to estimate the recovery rate of the plasma. While correcting the Brown's hypothesis (1989) claiming that the platelet recovery is linearly proportional to that of plasma, we propose a new correlation model for prediction of the platelet recovery, which is a function of the volume of whole blood, centrifugal acceleration and time. For a range of practical parameters, such as hematocrit, volume of whole blood and centrifugation (time and acceleration), the predicted recovery rate shows a good agreement with available clinical data. We propose that this model is further used to optimize the preparation method of PRP that satisfies the customized case. Supported by a Grant (MPSS-CG-2016-02) through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  3. Application of the strain-rate damage model to simplified and statistical predictions of IGSCC

    SciTech Connect

    Garud, Y.S.; McIlree, A.R.

    1995-12-31

    The intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) of Ni-Cr-Fe Alloy 600 in the nuclear reactor water environments continues to be a failure mechanism of significance, not only in the steam generator tubing of many plants but also in other locations of the coolant system in general, as is clear from the recent incidence of cracks in pressurizer nozzles and sleeves, control rod drive (CRDM) nozzles, etc. The importance of strain rate in describing and predicting the IGSCC response was incorporated into an engineering model presented previously by the authors. In this paper the authors present additional characteristics of the model identified in the more recent work, particularly dealing with the crack growth rate response and the sensitivity of IGSCC to different material conditions. Recent observations included in the paper show that the IGSCC is predominantly driven by mechanical factors. The strain rate basis provides certain unique predictions and insights into the IGSCC behavior; these are explored with some numerical results and comparisons with field observations. A simplified relation is proposed for the case of fixed stress condition based on the model characteristics, and the corresponding model parameters are derived for four material conditions. Application of the model to probabilistic evaluation is illustrated for time to circumferential through-wall failure in the expansion transition location.

  4. Nonparametric Hammerstein model based model predictive control for heart rate regulation.

    PubMed

    Su, Steven W; Huang, Shoudong; Wang, Lu; Celler, Branko G; Savkin, Andrey V; Guo, Ying; Cheng, Teddy

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposed a novel nonparametric model based model predictive control approach for the regulation of heart rate during treadmill exercise. As the model structure of human cardiovascular system is often hard to determine, nonparametric modelling is a more realistic manner to describe complex behaviours of cardiovascular system. This paper presents a new nonparametric Hammerstein model identification approach for heart rate response modelling. Based on the pseudo-random binary sequence experiment data, we decouple the identification of linear dynamic part and input nonlinearity of the Hammerstein system. Correlation analysis is applied to acquire step response of linear dynamic component. Support Vector Regression is adopted to obtain a nonparametric description of the inverse of input static nonlinearity that is utilized to form an approximate linear model of the Hammerstein system. Based on the established model, a model predictive controller under predefined speed and acceleration constraints is designed to achieve safer treadmill exercise. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm can achieve optimal heart rate tracking performance under predefined constraints.

  5. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  6. Predicting glomerular filtration rate in heart transplant recipients using serum creatinine-based equations with cimetidine.

    PubMed

    Tangri, Navdeep; Alam, Ahsan; Giannetti, Nadia; Deedwardes, Michael B; Cantarovich, Marcelo

    2008-08-01

    In this study we evaluated the use of cimetidine on the performance of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations and 24-hour creatinine clearance (24-hour CrCl) against radionuclide GFR in 43 heart transplant recipients with stable renal function. Pearson correlation coefficients for the 24-hour CrCl, Cockcroft-Gault, Nankivell and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (MDRD) equations without cimetidine were 0.76, 0.70, 0.81 and 0.76, and cimetidine-aided coefficients were 0.82, 0.80, 0.80 and 0.72, respectively. All the tested equations without cimetidine use predicted GFR with moderate accuracy in this population. The addition of cimetidine improved the predictive ability of the 24-hour CrCl and Cockcroft-Gault formulas, but not the Nankivell and MDRD GFR estimating equations, in heart transplant recipients.

  7. [FIRST-TRIMESTER ULTRASOUND AND BIOCHEMICAL MARKERS AND THEIR PREDICTIVE RATE IN PREECLAMPSIA DEVELOPMENT].

    PubMed

    Chalova, K; Pehlivanov, B

    2015-01-01

    Hypertensive disorders related to pregnancy and particularly preeclampsia are leading reasons for perinatal and maternal morbidity and mortality. The symptoms of preeclampsia are occurring during the second part of pregnancy, while the pathogenic processes start developing even in first trimester. This refers to the searching for the most reliable markers, that could prove those pathological processes happened and the combination of those markers in panel for early screening in order to predict the increased risk for developing of preeclampsia. Among multiple studied markers the most promising seam to be Doppler velosimetry of uterine arteries, PIGF, sFlt-1, sEndoglin, PAPP-A, PP-13. Their combined measurement increases the predictive rate and decreases the false positive results, but is also economically irrelevant. There are researches with different medications in order to argue their preventive effect in preeclampsia developing.

  8. Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Strzepek, K; Lele, S; Hedden, M; Greene, S; Noden, B; Hay, S I; Kalkstein, L; Beier, J C

    1998-10-01

    While malaria transmission varies seasonally, large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters, biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian, Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian, Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability, compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus, soil moisture explained 32% variability, peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of An. gambiae EIR, peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r2 = -0.20, and minimum temperature r2 = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling are compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Niño forecasts or global climate change model projections.

  9. Reproductive rate and body size predict road impacts on mammal abundance.

    PubMed

    Rytwinski, Trina; Fahrig, Lenore

    2011-03-01

    It has been hypothesized that mobile species should be more negatively affected by road mortality than less-mobile species because they interact with roads more often, and that species with lower reproductive rates and longer generation times should be more susceptible to road effects because they will be less able to rebound quickly from population declines. Taken together, these hypotheses suggest that, in general, larger species should be more affected by road networks than smaller species because larger species generally have lower reproductive rates and longer generation times and are more mobile than smaller species. We tested these hypotheses by estimating relative abundances of 17 mammal species across landscapes ranging in road density within eastern Ontario, Canada. For each of the 13 species for which detectability was not related to road density, we quantified the relationship between road density and relative abundance. We then tested three cross-species predictions: that the slope of the relationship between road density and abundance should become increasingly negative with (1) decreasing annual reproductive rate; (2) increasing home range area (an indicator of movement range); and (3) increasing body size. All three predictions were supported in univariate models, with R2 values of 0.68, 0.50, and 0.52 respectively. The best overall model based on AICc contained both reproductive rate (P = 0.008) and body size (P = 0.072) and explained 77% of the variation in the slope of the relationship between road density and abundance. Our results suggest that priority should be placed on mitigating road effects on large mammals with low reproductive rates.

  10. Achieving higher pathological complete response rates in HER-2-positive patients with induction chemotherapy without trastuzumab in operable breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Penault-Llorca, Frédérique; Abrial, Catherine; Mouret-Reynier, Marie-Ange; Raoelfils, Inès; Durando, Xavier; Leheurteur, Marianne; Gimbergues, Pierre; Tortochaux, Jacques; Curé, Hervé; Chollet, Philippe

    2007-04-01

    Recent trials of induction chemotherapy in bulky operable breast cancer have shown much higher pathological complete response (pCR) rates with trastuzumab-driven combinations. However, it is useful to take into account the specific chemosensitivity of HER-2-positive tumors. The aim of this study was to assess the pCR rate according to HER-2 status in response to chemotherapy, without an anti-HER-2 specific biological agent, in 710 operable breast cancer patients. Since 1982, these patients have been treated with several different neoadjuvant chemotherapy combinations. During this period, HER-2 overexpression was most often not assessed. Subsequently, we assessed HER-2 expression using archival paraffin-embedded tissue. A technically usable specimen was available for 413 of the 710 patients. Before treatment, 51 patients were HER-2 positive, 287 patients were HER-2 negative, and the results were inconclusive for 75 patients. Of these patients, a pCR in breast and nodes was obtained in 94 patients (14.3%), but this event was threefold more frequent for HER-2-positive patients (23.5%) than for HER-2-negative patients (7%). The overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates at 10 years were 66.6% and 57.4%, respectively. The DFS rate was, as expected, better for HER-2-negative patients, with HER-2 status assessed before as well as after chemotherapy. A significant difference was found for OS in favor of HER-2-negative patients only with postchemotherapy assessment of HER-2, a fact similar to our previous findings. Finally, there was a tendency toward a higher DFS rate for HER-2-positive patients who achieved a pCR compared with HER-2-positive patients who did not.

  11. Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

  12. Flower vs. Leaf Feeding by Pieris brassicae: Glucosinolate-Rich Flower Tissues are Preferred and Sustain Higher Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Smallegange, R. C.; Blatt, S. E.; Harvey, J. A.; Agerbirk, N.; Dicke, M.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions between butterflies and caterpillars in the genus Pieris and plants in the family Brassicaceae are among the best explored in the field of insect–plant biology. However, we report here for the first time that Pieris brassicae, commonly assumed to be a typical folivore, actually prefers to feed on flowers of three Brassica nigra genotypes rather than on their leaves. First- and second-instar caterpillars were observed to feed primarily on leaves, whereas late second and early third instars migrated via the small leaves of the flower branches to the flower buds and flowers. Once flower feeding began, no further leaf feeding was observed. We investigated growth rates of caterpillars having access exclusively to either leaves of flowering plants or flowers. In addition, we analyzed glucosinolate concentrations in leaves and flowers. Late-second- and early-third-instar P. brassicae caterpillars moved upward into the inflorescences of B. nigra and fed on buds and flowers until the end of the final (fifth) instar, after which they entered into the wandering stage, leaving the plant in search of a pupation site. Flower feeding sustained a significantly higher growth rate than leaf feeding. Flowers contained levels of glucosinolates up to five times higher than those of leaves. Five glucosinolates were identified: the aliphatic sinigrin, the aromatic phenyethylglucosinolate, and three indole glucosinolates: glucobrassicin, 4-methoxyglucobrassicin, and 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin. Tissue type and genotype were the most important factors affecting levels of identified glucosinolates. Sinigrin was by far the most abundant compound in all three genotypes. Sinigrin, 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin, and phenylethylglucosinolate were present at significantly higher levels in flowers than in leaves. In response to caterpillar feeding, sinigrin levels in both leaves and flowers were significantly higher than in undamaged plants, whereas 4-hydroxyglucobrassicin leaf levels were

  13. Designing safer chemicals: Predicting the rates of metabolism of halogenated alkanes

    SciTech Connect

    Yin, H.; Anders, M.W.; Higgins, L.

    1995-11-21

    A computational model is presented that can be used as a tool in the design of safer chemicals. This model predicts that rate of hydrogen-atom abstraction by cytochrome P450 enzymes. Excellent correlations between biotransformation rates and the calculated activation energies ({Delta}H{sub act}) of the cytochrome P450-mediated hydrogen-atom abstractions were obtained for the in vitro biotransformation of six halogenated alkanes (1-fluoro-1,1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoro-2-chloroethane, 1,1,1,2,2-pentafluoroethane, and 2-bromo-2-chloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane) with both rat and human enzyme preparations: (rate, human CYP2E1) = 44.99 - 1.79 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.86; In (rate, human Cyp2E1)= 46399 -1.77 ({Delta}H{sub act}), r{sup 2} = 0.97 (rates are in nmol of product per min per nmol of cytochrome P450 and energies are in kcal/mol). Correlations were also obtained for five inhalation anesthetics (enflurane, sevoflurane, desflurane, methoxyflurane, and isoflurane) for both in vivo and in vitro data have been shown to agree in any species. The model presented herein provides an archetype for the methodology that may be used in the future design of safer chemicals, particularly hydrochlorofluorocarbons and inhalation anesthetics. 41 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  14. Prediction of in situ root decomposition rates in an interspecific context from chemical and morphological traits

    PubMed Central

    Aulen, Maurice; Shipley, Bill; Bradley, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Background and Aims We quantitatively relate in situ root decomposition rates of a wide range of trees and herbs used in agroforestry to root chemical and morphological traits in order to better describe carbon fluxes from roots to the soil carbon pool across a diverse group of plant species. Methods In situ root decomposition rates were measured over an entire year by an intact core method on ten tree and seven herb species typical of agroforestry systems and were quantified using decay constants (k values) from Olson's single exponential model. Decay constants were related to root chemical (total carbon, nitrogen, soluble carbon, cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin) and morphological (specific root length, specific root length) traits. Traits were measured for both absorbing and non-absorbing roots. Key Results From 61 to 77 % of the variation in the different root traits and 63 % of that in root decomposition rates was interspecific. N was positively correlated, but total carbon and lignin were negatively correlated with k values. Initial root traits accounted for 75 % of the variation in interspecific decomposition rates using partial least squares regressions; partial slopes attributed to each trait were consistent with functional ecology expectations. Conclusions Easily measured initial root traits can be used to predict rates of root decomposition in soils in an interspecific context. PMID:22003237

  15. First principle prediction of shallow defect level binding energies and deep level nonradiative recombination rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Linwang

    2014-03-01

    Accurate calculation of defect level energies in semiconductors and their carrier capturing rate is an important issue in ab initio prediction of semiconductor properties. In this talk, I will present our result work in ab initio shallow level calculation and deep level caused nonradiative recombination rate calculation. In the shallow acceptor level calculation, a large system up to 64,000 atoms needs to be used to properly describe the weakly bounded hole wave functions. The single particle Hamiltonian of that system is patched from bulk potential and central potential. Furthermore, GW calculation is used to correct the one site potential of the impurity atom. The resulting binding energy agrees excellently with the experiments within 10 meV. To calculate the nonradiative decay rate, the electron-phonon coupling constants in the defect system are calculated all at once using a new variational algorithm. Multiphonon process formalism is used to calculate the nonradiative decay rate. It is found that the transition is induced by the electron and the optical phonon coupling, but the energy conservation is mostly satisfied by the acoustic phonons. The new algorithm allows fast calculation of such nonradiative decay rate for any defect levels, as well as other multiphonon processes in nanostructures. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Science (BES)/Materials Science and Engineering Division (MSED) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

  16. Semantic Organizational Strategy Predicts Verbal Memory and Remission Rate of Geriatric Depression

    PubMed Central

    Morimoto, Sarah Shizuko; Gunning, Faith M.; Kanellopoulos, Dora; Murphy, Christopher F.; Klimstra, Sibel A.; Kelly, Robert E.; Alexopoulos, George S.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE This study tests the hypothesis that the use of a semantic organizational strategy, during the free recall phase of a verbal memory task predicts remission of geriatric depression. METHODS 65 elderly patients with major depression participated in a 12-week escitalopram treatment trial. Neuropsychological performance was assessed at baseline after a 2-week drug washout period. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLT-R)(Brandt 2001) was used to assess verbal learning and memory. Remission was defined as a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale Score (HDRS) less than or equal to 7 for two consecutive weeks and no longer meeting DSM-IV-TR criteria for major depression. The association between the number of clusters used at the final learning trial (Trial 3) and remission was examined using Cox’s proportional hazards survival analysis. The relationship between the number of clusters utilized in the final learning trial and words recalled after a 25 minute delay was examined in a regression with age and education as covariates. RESULTS Greater number of clusters utilized predicted remission rate (Hazard ratio (95% CI) = 1.26 (1.04–1.54), χ2 =4.23, df=3, p=0.04). There was a positive relationship between the total number of clusters used by the end of the third learning trial and the total number of words recalled at the delayed recall trial (F(3,58)=7.93;p<.001) CONCLUSIONS Effective semantic strategy use at baseline on a verbal list learning task by elderly depressed patients was associated with greater rate of remission with antidepressant treatment. This result provides support for previous findings indicating that measures of executive functioning at baseline are useful in predicting antidepressant response. PMID:21618287

  17. Study of Uncertainties of Predicting Space Shuttle Thermal Environment. [impact of heating rate prediction errors on weight of thermal protection system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fehrman, A. L.; Masek, R. V.

    1972-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in predicting aerodynamic heating rates for a fully reusable space shuttle system are developed and the impact of these uncertainties on Thermal Protection System (TPS) weight are discussed. The study approach consisted of statistical evaluations of the scatter of heating data on shuttle configurations about state-of-the-art heating prediction methods to define the uncertainty in these heating predictions. The uncertainties were then applied as heating rate increments to the nominal predicted heating rate to define the uncertainty in TPS weight. Separate evaluations were made for the booster and orbiter, for trajectories which included boost through reentry and touchdown. For purposes of analysis, the vehicle configuration is divided into areas in which a given prediction method is expected to apply, and separate uncertainty factors and corresponding uncertainty in TPS weight derived for each area.

  18. The Role of Infertility Etiology in Success Rate of Intrauterine Insemination Cycles: An Evaluation of Predictive Factors for Pregnancy Rate

    PubMed Central

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Rashidi, Mandana; Ghasemi, Afsaneh; Arabipoor, Arezoo; Daghighi, Sara; Pourasghari, Parisa; Zolfaghari, Zahra

    2013-01-01

    Background: The objective of this study was to identify the prognostic factors that influence the outcome of ovarian stimulation with intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles in couples with different infertility etiology. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed in data of 1348 IUI cycles with ovarian stimulation by clomiphene citrate (CC) and/or gonadotropins in 632 women with five different infertility etiology subgroups at Akbarabbadi Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Results: The pregnancy rate (PR)/ cycle was highest (19.9%) among couples with unexplained infertility and lowest (10.6%) in couples with multiple factors infertility. In cases of unexplained infertility, the best PRs were seen after CC plus gonadotropins stimulation (26.3%) and with inseminated motile sperm count>30×106 (21.9%), but the tendency didn’t reach statistical significant. In the ovarian factor group, the best PRs were observed in women aged between 30 and 34 years (20.8%), with 2-3 preovulatory follicles (37.8%) and infertility duration between 1and 3 years (20.8%), while only infertility duration (p=0.03) and number of preovulatory follicles (p=0.01) were statistically significant. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined that number of preovulatory follicles (p=0.02), duration of infertility (p=0.015), age (p=0.019), infertility etiology (p=0.05) and stimulation regimen (p=0.01) were significant independent factors in order to predict overall clinical PR. Conclusion: The etiology of infertility is important to achieve remarkable IUI success. It is worth mentioning that within different etiologies of infertility, the demographic and cycles characteristics of couples did not show the same effect. Favorable variables for treatment success are as follows: age <40, duration of infertility ≤5 years and a cause of infertility except of multiple factors. PMID:24520471

  19. Higher TSH can be used as an additional risk factor in prediction of malignancy in euthyroid thyroid nodules evaluated by cytology based on Bethesda system.

    PubMed

    Baser, Husniye; Topaloglu, Oya; Tam, Abbas Ali; Evranos, Berna; Alkan, Afra; Sungu, Nuran; Dumlu, Ersin Gurkan; Ersoy, Reyhan; Cakir, Bekir

    2016-08-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that thyrotropin (TSH) concentration can be used as a marker for prediction of thyroid malignancy. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between TSH levels and prediction of malignancy in euthyroid patients with different Bethesda categories. The data of 1433 euthyroid patients with 3206 thyroid nodules who underwent thyroidectomy were screened retrospectively. The preoperative cytology results, thyroid function tests, thyroid autoantibodies, and presence of histopathological Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) were recorded. Of the 1433 patients, 585 (40.8 %) had malignant and 848 (59.2 %) had benign histopathology. Malignant group had smaller nodule size, elevated TSH levels, and higher rate of presence of HT compared to benign group (p < 0.001, all). Cytology results of 3206 nodules were as follows: 832 nondiagnostic (ND), 1666 benign, 392 atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS), 68 follicular neoplasm/suspicious for follicular neoplasm (FN/SFN), 133 suspicious for malignancy (SM), and 115 malignant. Both SM and malignant cytology groups had higher TSH levels than other 4 Bethesda categories (p < 0.05, all). Benign cytology group had significantly lower TSH levels compared to other cytology groups (p < 0.05, all). Patients with malignant final histopathology in ND and AUS/FLUS cytology groups had significantly higher TSH levels compared to patients with benign final histopathology (p < 0.05, all). Moreover, TSH levels showed to increase from Bethesda categories II to VI. In addition to cytology, higher TSH levels can be used as a supplementary marker in prediction of malignancy in certain Bethesda categories.

  20. Using CFD Techniques to Predict Slosh Force Frequency and Damping Rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Gangadharan, Sathya; Chatman, Yadira; Sudermann, James

    2009-01-01

    Resonant effects and energy dissipation due to sloshing fuel inside propellant tanks are problems that arise in the initial design of any spacecraft or launch vehicle. A faster and more reliable method for calculating these effects during the design stages is needed. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques, a model of these fuel tanks can be created and used to predict important parameters such as resonant slosh frequency and damping rate. This initial study addresses the case of free surface slosh. Future studies will focus on creating models for tanks fitted with propellant management devices (PMD) such as diaphragms and baffles.

  1. Prediction of water vapor transport rates across polyvinylchloride packaging systems using a novel radiotracer method

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, R.W.; Mulski, M.J.; Kuu, W.Y. )

    1990-09-01

    A radiotracer method is used to study the transport properties of water vapor in polyvinylchloride (PVC), a plastic commonly used in the packaging of parenteral solutions. Water vapor transport across a PVC film appears to be Fickian in nature. Using the steady-state solution of Fick's second law and the permeability coefficient of water vapor across the PVC film obtained using the described method, the predicted water vapor transport rate (WVTR) for a parenteral solution packaged in PVC is in reasonable agreement with actual WVTR as determined by weight loss under precisely controlled conditions.

  2. Does slow embryo development predict a high aneuploidy rate on trophectoderm biopsy?

    PubMed

    Piccolomini, Mariana M; Nicolielo, Mariana; Bonetti, Tatiana C S; Motta, Eduardo L A; Serafini, Paulo C; Alegretti, Jose Roberto

    2016-09-01

    The aneuploidy rates in expanded blastocysts biopsied on days 5 and 6 development were assessed in women undergoing IVF followed by array comparative genomic hybridization. This study included 1171 expanded blastocysts from 465 patients. Among the 465 patients, 215 and 141 underwent embryo biopsy on day 5 and day 6 (46.2% and 30.3%, respectively), and 109 underwent biopsy on both days 5 and 6 (23.4%). The cycles of 206 women were cancelled because only aneuploidy embryos were present (44.3%). The aneuploid embryos were classified according to the type as single, double or complex aneuploidy. No differences were observed in the distributions of these three categories according to the day of the biopsy. The aneuploidy rate was also evaluated according to maternal age, and was found to be higher in older patients; however, no differences in this rate were detected between embryos biopsied on days 5 and 6 according to maternal age. Biopsy was carried out when blastocysts reached the expanded stage. The embryos biopsied on day 6 had a higher rate of aneuploidy (69.9%) than those biopsied on day 5 (61.4%); however, the euploid embryos transferred had similar chances for successful and healthy gestation.

  3. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  4. The Value of Hippocampal and Temporal Horn Volumes and Rates of Change in Predicting Future Conversion to AD

    PubMed Central

    Bartlett, Jonathan W.; Leung, Kelvin K.; Ourselin, Sebastien; Barnes, Josephine

    2013-01-01

    Hippocampal pathology occurs early in Alzheimer disease (AD), and atrophy, measured by volumes and volume changes, may predict which subjects will develop AD. Measures of the temporal horn (TH), which is situated adjacent to the hippocampus, may also indicate early changes in AD. Previous studies suggest that these metrics can predict conversion from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD with conversion and volume change measured concurrently. However, the ability of these metrics to predict future conversion has not been investigated. We compared the abilities of hippocampal, TH, and global measures to predict future conversion from MCI to AD. TH, hippocampi, whole brain, and ventricles were measured using baseline and 12-month scans. Boundary shift integral was used to measure the rate of change. We investigated the prediction of conversion between 12 and 24 months in subjects classified as MCI from baseline to 12 months. All measures were predictive of future conversion. Local and global rates of change were similarly predictive of conversion. There was evidence that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the hippocampal atrophy rate (P=0.023) and that the TH expansion rate is more predictive than the TH volume (P=0.036). Prodromal atrophy rates may be useful predictors of future conversion to sporadic AD from amnestic MCI. PMID:22760170

  5. The 2-Oxoacid Dehydrogenase Complexes in Mitochondria Can Produce Superoxide/Hydrogen Peroxide at Much Higher Rates Than Complex I*

    PubMed Central

    Quinlan, Casey L.; Goncalves, Renata L. S.; Hey-Mogensen, Martin; Yadava, Nagendra; Bunik, Victoria I.; Brand, Martin D.

    2014-01-01

    Several flavin-dependent enzymes of the mitochondrial matrix utilize NAD+ or NADH at about the same operating redox potential as the NADH/NAD+ pool and comprise the NADH/NAD+ isopotential enzyme group. Complex I (specifically the flavin, site IF) is often regarded as the major source of matrix superoxide/H2O2 production at this redox potential. However, the 2-oxoglutarate dehydrogenase (OGDH), branched-chain 2-oxoacid dehydrogenase (BCKDH), and pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) complexes are also capable of considerable superoxide/H2O2 production. To differentiate the superoxide/H2O2-producing capacities of these different mitochondrial sites in situ, we compared the observed rates of H2O2 production over a range of different NAD(P)H reduction levels in isolated skeletal muscle mitochondria under conditions that favored superoxide/H2O2 production from complex I, the OGDH complex, the BCKDH complex, or the PDH complex. The rates from all four complexes increased at higher NAD(P)H/NAD(P)+ ratios, although the 2-oxoacid dehydrogenase complexes produced superoxide/H2O2 at high rates only when oxidizing their specific 2-oxoacid substrates and not in the reverse reaction from NADH. At optimal conditions for each system, superoxide/H2O2 was produced by the OGDH complex at about twice the rate from the PDH complex, four times the rate from the BCKDH complex, and eight times the rate from site IF of complex I. Depending on the substrates present, the dominant sites of superoxide/H2O2 production at the level of NADH may be the OGDH and PDH complexes, but these activities may often be misattributed to complex I. PMID:24515115

  6. Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poovathingal, Savio

    An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of

  7. Higher Rate of Tuberculosis in Second Generation Migrants Compared to Native Residents in a Metropolitan Setting in Western Europe

    PubMed Central

    Marx, Florian M.; Fiebig, Lena; Hauer, Barbara; Brodhun, Bonita; Glaser-Paschke, Gisela; Haas, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Background In Western Europe, migrants constitute an important risk group for tuberculosis, but little is known about successive generations of migrants. We aimed to characterize migration among tuberculosis cases in Berlin and to estimate annual rates of tuberculosis in two subsequent migrant generations. We hypothesized that second generation migrants born in Germany are at higher risk of tuberculosis compared to native (non-migrant) residents. Methods A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted. All tuberculosis cases reported to health authorities in Berlin between 11/2010 and 10/2011 were eligible. Interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire including demographic data, migration history of patients and their parents, and language use. Tuberculosis rates were estimated using 2011 census data. Results Of 314 tuberculosis cases reported, 154 (49.0%) participated. Of these, 81 (52.6%) were first-, 14 (9.1%) were second generation migrants, and 59 (38.3%) were native residents. The tuberculosis rate per 100,000 individuals was 28.3 (95CI: 24.0–32.6) in first-, 10.2 (95%CI: 6.1–16.6) in second generation migrants, and 4.6 (95%CI: 3.7–5.6) in native residents. When combining information from the standard notification variables country of birth and citizenship, the sensitivity to detect second generation migration was 28.6%. Conclusions There is a higher rate of tuberculosis among second generation migrants compared to native residents in Berlin. This may be explained by presumably frequent contact and transmission within migrant populations. Second generation migration is insufficiently captured by the surveillance variables country of birth and citizenship. Surveillance systems in Western Europe should allow for quantifying the tuberculosis burden in this important risk group. PMID:26061733

  8. Biodegradation testing of chemicals with high Henry's constants - Separating mass and effective concentration reveals higher rate constants.

    PubMed

    Birch, Heidi; Andersen, Henrik R; Comber, Mike; Mayer, Philipp

    2017-05-01

    During simulation-type biodegradation tests, volatile chemicals will continuously partition between water phase and headspace. This study addressed how (1) this partitioning affects test results and (2) can be accounted for by combining equilibrium partition and dynamic biodegradation models. An aqueous mixture of 9 (semi)volatile chemicals was first generated using passive dosing and then diluted with environmental surface water producing concentrations in the ng/L to μg/L range. After incubation for 2 h to 4 weeks, automated Headspace Solid Phase Microextraction (HS-SPME) was applied directly on the test systems to measure substrate depletion by biodegradation relatively to abiotic controls. HS-SPME was also applied to determine air to water partitioning ratios. Biodegradation rate constants relating to the chemical in the water phase, kwater, were generally a factor 1 to 11 times higher than biodegradation rate constants relating to the total mass of chemical in the test system, ksystem, with one exceptional factor of 72 times for a long chain alkane. True water phase degradation rate constants were found (i) more appropriate for risk assessment than test system rate constants, (ii) to facilitate extrapolation to other air-water systems and (iii) to be better defined input parameters for aquatic exposure and fate models.

  9. PAN AIR - A higher order panel method for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flows about arbitrary configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carmichael, R. L.; Erickson, L. L.

    1981-01-01

    PAN AIR is a computer program for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flow about arbitrary configurations. It uses linear source and quadratic doublet strength distributions. These higher-order distributions have been implemented in a manner that greatly reduces the numerical stability problems that have plagued earlier attempts to make surface paneling methods work successfully for supersonic flow. PAN AIR's problem-solving capability, numerical approach, modeling features, and program architecture are described. Numerical results are presented for a variety of geometries at supersonic Mach numbers.

  10. A supply-based concentration rating curve to predict total phosphorus concentrations in the Rhine River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van der Perk, M.; Vogels, M. F. A.

    2012-04-01

    ) at the Lobith-Bimmen monitoring station at the German-Dutch border between 1 April 2004 and 20 July 2010. The model parameters were calibrated by a step-wise procedure which involved in some steps visual calibration (e.g. concentration amplitude, critical discharge for erosion/deposition) and in other steps regression analysis (e.g. long-term linear trend, power law rating curve). The total phosphorus concentrations show a long-term linear decrease of 1.0 - 10-5 mg l-1 d-1. The amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation in phosphorus concentration was estimated to be 0.03 mg l-1. The critical discharge for erosion and deposition was estimated to be 1900 m s-1, the increase in phosphorus stock during deposition periods 9300 kg d-1, and the supply from the phosphorus stock to the river water 32 kg d-1per m3 s excess discharge. The squared Pearson's correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted total phosphorus increased from 0.16 for the traditional power-law concentration rating curve (Nash's efficiency coefficient = 0.13) to 0.36 for the supply-based rating curve (Nash's efficiency coefficient = 0.34). This implies that inclusion of the long-term and seasonal trends and a discharge dependent supply and loss term considerably enhances the performance and predictive power of the concentration rating curve model. As the response to changes in discharge is different for dissolved and particulate total phosphorus, a further improvement of model performance can likely be achieved by deriving separate concentration rating curves for dissolved total phosphorus and sediment-associated phosphorus.

  11. Growth rate predicts mortality of Abies concolor in both burned and unburned stands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Mutch, Linda S.; Johnson, Veronica G.; Esperanza, Annie M.; Parsons, David J.

    2003-01-01

    Tree mortality is often the result of both long-term and short-term stress. Growth rate, an indicator of long-term stress, is often used to estimate probability of death in unburned stands. In contrast, probability of death in burned stands is modeled as a function of short-term disturbance severity. We sought to narrow this conceptual gap by determining (i) whether growth rate, in addition to crown scorch, is a predictor of mortality in burned stands and (ii) whether a single, simple model could predict tree death in both burned and unburned stands. Observations of 2622 unburned and 688 burned Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) in the Sierra Nevada of California, U.S.A., indicated that growth rate was a significant predictor of mortality in the unburned stands, while both crown scorch and radial growth were significant predictors of mortality in the burned stands. Applying the burned stand model to unburned stands resulted in an overestimation of the unburned stand mortality rate. While failing to create a general model of tree death for A. concolor, our findings underscore the idea that similar processes may affect mortality in disturbed and undisturbed stands.

  12. Glomerular filtration rate estimation: performance of serum cystatin C-based prediction equations.

    PubMed

    Weinert, Letícia Schwerz; Camargo, Eduardo Guimarães; Soares, Ariana A; Silveiro, Sandra Pinho

    2011-11-01

    Serum creatinine measurement is a mainstay in the routine laboratory evaluation of renal function, despite of having several disadvantages. Cystatin C, on the other hand, suffers less influence of gender and muscle mass and has been proposed as a more sensitive marker for glomerular filtration rate. However, serum endogenous markers should not be used alone to assess glomerular filtration rate. Creatinine-based equations such as the modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) and Cockcroft-Gault are widely used despite their limitations. A large number of cystatin C-based prediction equations were developed in recent years, in diverse populations, with different laboratory assays and methods. Several studies demonstrated that cystatin C-based equations are reliable markers of glomerular filtration rate and can be used for diagnosis, evaluation and follow-up of kidney disease. They are simpler than creatinine-based equations and have at least the same accuracy and precision for glomerular filtration rate estimation. In conclusion, diabetes mellitus, cystic fibrosis, kidney transplantation, HIV-infection, and cirrhosis are clinical situations where cystatin C-based equations can be useful. Extremes of age such as childhood and advanced age have also been evaluated with favorable results.

  13. Predicting Residential Air Exchange Rates from Questionnaires and Meteorology: Model Evaluation in Central North Carolina

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h−1) and 40% (0.17 h−1) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h−1). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies. PMID:21069949

  14. Human islet oxygen consumption rate and DNA measurements predict diabetes reversal in nude mice.

    PubMed

    Papas, K K; Colton, C K; Nelson, R A; Rozak, P R; Avgoustiniatos, E S; Scott, W E; Wildey, G M; Pisania, A; Weir, G C; Hering, B J

    2007-03-01

    There is a need for simple, quantitative and prospective assays for islet quality assessment that are predictive of islet transplantation outcome. The current state-of-the-art athymic nude mouse bioassay is costly, technically challenging and retrospective. In this study, we report on the ability of 2 parameters characterizing human islet quality: (1) oxygen consumption rate (OCR), a measure of viable volume; and (2) OCR/DNA, a measure of fractional viability, to predict diabetes reversal in nude mice. Results demonstrate that the probability for diabetes reversal increases as the graft's OCR/DNA and total OCR increase. For a given transplanted OCR dose, diabetes reversal is strongly dependent on OCR/DNA. The OCR and OCR/DNA (the 'OCR test') data exhibit 89% sensitivity and 77% specificity in predicting diabetes reversal in nude mice (n = 86). We conclude that the prospective OCR test can effectively replace the retrospective athymic nude mouse bioassay in assessing human islet quality prior to islet transplantation.

  15. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    PubMed

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  16. Nicotine metabolic rate predicts successful smoking cessation with transdermal nicotine: a validation study.

    PubMed

    Schnoll, Robert A; Patterson, Freda; Wileyto, E Paul; Tyndale, Rachel F; Benowitz, Neal; Lerman, Caryn

    2009-03-01

    Transdermal nicotine is widely used for smoking cessation, but only approximately 20% of smokers quit successfully with this medication. Interindividual variability in nicotine metabolism rate may influence treatment response. This study sought to validate, and extend in a larger sample, our previous finding that the ratio of plasma nicotine metabolites 3'-hydroxycotinine (3-HC)/cotinine, a measure of nicotine metabolism rate, predicts response to nicotine patch. A sample of 568 smokers was enrolled in a study that provided counseling and 8-weeks of 21 mg nicotine patch. Pretreatment 3-HC/cotinine ratio was examined as a predictor of 7-day point prevalence abstinence, verified with breath carbon monoxide (CO), 8 weeks after the quit date. Controlling for sex, race, age, and nicotine dependence, smokers in the upper 3 quartiles of 3-HC/cotinine ratio (faster metabolizers) were approximately 50% less likely to be abstinent vs. smokers in the first quartile (slow metabolizers; 28% vs. 42%; OR=.54 [95% CI:.36-.82], p=.003). Among abstainers, plasma nicotine levels (assessed 1 week after treatment began) decreased linearly across the 3-HC/cotinine ratio (beta=-3.38, t[355]=-3.09, p<.05). These data support the value of the 3-HC/cotinine ratio as a biomarker to predict success with transdermal nicotine for smoking cessation.

  17. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    SciTech Connect

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; Tratnyek, Paul G.

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation by an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.

  18. Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

    DOE PAGES

    Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; ...

    2015-02-11

    The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation bymore » an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.« less

  19. Reward rate optimization in two-alternative decision making: empirical tests of theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Simen, Patrick; Contreras, David; Buck, Cara; Hu, Peter; Holmes, Philip; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2009-12-01

    The drift-diffusion model (DDM) implements an optimal decision procedure for stationary, 2-alternative forced-choice tasks. The height of a decision threshold applied to accumulating information on each trial determines a speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) for the DDM, thereby accounting for a ubiquitous feature of human performance in speeded response tasks. However, little is known about how participants settle on particular tradeoffs. One possibility is that they select SATs that maximize a subjective rate of reward earned for performance. For the DDM, there exist unique, reward-rate-maximizing values for its threshold and starting point parameters in free-response tasks that reward correct responses (R. Bogacz, E. Brown, J. Moehlis, P. Holmes, & J. D. Cohen, 2006). These optimal values vary as a function of response-stimulus interval, prior stimulus probability, and relative reward magnitude for correct responses. We tested the resulting quantitative predictions regarding response time, accuracy, and response bias under these task manipulations and found that grouped data conformed well to the predictions of an optimally parameterized DDM.

  20. Prediction of Disease Case Severity Level To Determine INA CBGs Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puspitorini, Sukma; Kusumadewi, Sri; Rosita, Linda

    2017-03-01

    Indonesian Case-Based Groups (INA CBGs) is case-mix payment system using software grouper application. INA CBGs consisting of four digits code where the last digits indicating the severity level of disease cases. Severity level influence by secondary diagnosis (complications and co-morbidity) related to resource intensity level. It is medical resources used to treat a hospitalized patient. Objectives of this research is developing decision support system to predict severity level of disease cases and illustrate INA CBGs rate by using data mining decision tree classification model. Primary diagnosis (DU), first secondary diagnosis (DS 1), and second secondary diagnosis (DS 2) are attributes that used as input of severity level. The training process using C4.5 algorithm and the rules will represent in the IF-THEN form. Credibility of the system analyzed through testing process and confusion matrix present the results. Outcome of this research shows that first secondary diagnosis influence significant to form severity level predicting rules from new disease cases and INA CBGs rate illustration.

  1. Why do flow laws not predict sensible strain-rate distributions in the crust?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platt, John

    2016-04-01

    The tensor strain rate edot in a ductile shear zone is directly related to its width w and the displacement rate V by edot = V /2w. If the strain-rate is related to stress via a constitutive relationship, or flow law, then we should be able to predict w as a function of temperature and depth by w = V /2f(sigma), where sigma is the second invariant of the deviatoric stress tensor, and f is the rheology. The rheology has the general form f(sigma) = A exp(-Q/RT) sigmand-m, where Q is the activation energy, Ris the gas constant, T is temperature, and d is grain-size. The prefactor A is a function of the properties of the mineral and its grain-boundaries, and may incorporate some dependency on water content. If we have constraints on the variation of temperature and stress with depth, in a shear zone for which the slip rate is likely to have been constant with depth and time, we should be able to calculate edot, and hence w, as a function of depth. The Whipple Mountains metamorphic core complex provides an example of this, as the temperature and stress as a function of depth in the exhumed shear zone are known (Behr & Platt, EPSL, 2011), and the slip rate is well constrained over a 9 m.y. period. To calculate edot, I used a range of possible rheologies, including various published flow laws for quartz, and composite flow laws for granite or granitic gneiss based on several published approaches to the rheology of quartz-feldspar mixtures spanning the full range of physically viable solutions. These different rheologies give values for edot spanning many orders of magnitude, but more importantly, they all predict increasing strain-rate (and hence decreasing w) with depth and temperature. It is widely accepted that shear zones increase in width with temperature and depth, so this appears to be an example of a failed model. Some possible reasons for this, and approaches for the future, are discussed.

  2. Predicting cancer rates in astronauts from animal carcinogenesis studies and cellular markers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, J. R.; Zhang, Y.; Zhou, H.; Osman, M.; Cha, D.; Kavet, R.; Cuccinotta, F.; Dicello, J. F.; Dillehay, L. E.

    1999-01-01

    The radiation space environment includes particles such as protons and multiple species of heavy ions, with much of the exposure to these radiations occurring at extremely low average dose-rates. Limitations in databases needed to predict cancer hazards in human beings from such radiations are significant and currently do not provide confidence that such predictions are acceptably precise or accurate. In this article, we outline the need for animal carcinogenesis data based on a more sophisticated understanding of the dose-response relationship for induction of cancer and correlative cellular endpoints by representative space radiations. We stress the need for a model that can interrelate human and animal carcinogenesis data with cellular mechanisms. Using a broad model for dose-response patterns which we term the "subalpha-alpha-omega (SAO) model", we explore examples in the literature for radiation-induced cancer and for radiation-induced cellular events to illustrate the need for data that define the dose-response patterns more precisely over specific dose ranges, with special attention to low dose, low dose-rate exposure. We present data for multiple endpoints in cells, which vary in their radiosensitivity, that also support the proposed model. We have measured induction of complex chromosome aberrations in multiple cell types by two space radiations, Fe-ions and protons, and compared these to photons delivered at high dose-rate or low dose-rate. Our data demonstrate that at least three factors modulate the relative efficacy of Fe-ions compared to photons: (i) intrinsic radiosensitivity of irradiated cells; (ii) dose-rate; and (iii) another unspecified effect perhaps related to reparability of DNA lesions. These factors can produce respectively up to at least 7-, 6- and 3-fold variability. These data demonstrate the need to understand better the role of intrinsic radiosensitivity and dose-rate effects in mammalian cell response to ionizing radiation. Such

  3. High Emergency Lung Transplantation: dramatic decrease of waiting list death rate without relevant higher post-transplant mortality.

    PubMed

    Roux, Antoine; Beaumont-Azuar, Laurence; Hamid, Abdul Monem; De Miranda, Sandra; Grenet, Dominique; Briend, Guillaume; Bonnette, Pierre; Puyo, Philippe; Parquin, François; Devaquet, Jerome; Trebbia, Gregoire; Cuquemelle, Elise; Douvry, Benoit; Picard, Clément; Le Guen, Morgan; Chapelier, Alain; Stern, Marc; Sage, Edouard

    2015-09-01

    Many candidates for lung transplantation (LT) die on the waiting list, raising the question of graft availability and strategy for organ allocation. We report the experience of the new organ allocation program, "High Emergency Lung Transplantation" (HELT), since its implementation in our center in 2007. Retrospective analysis of 201 lung transplant patients, of whom 37 received HELT from 1st July 2007 to 31th May 2012. HELT candidates had a higher impairment grade on respiratory status and higher Lung Allocation Score (LAS). HELT patients had increased incidence of perioperative complications (e.g., perioperative bleeding) and extracorporeal circulatory assistance (75% vs. 36.6%, P = 0.0005). No significant difference was observed between HELT and non-HELT patients in mechanical ventilation duration (15.5 days vs. 11 days, P = 0.27), intensive care unit length of stay (15 days vs. 10 days, P = 0.22) or survival rate at 12 (81% vs. 80%), and 24 months post-LT (72.9% vs. 75.0%). Lastly, mortality on the waiting list was spectacularly reduced from 19% to 2% when compared to the non-HELT 2004-2007 group. Despite a more severe clinical status of patients on the waiting list, HELT provided similar results to conventional LT. These results were associated with a dramatic reduction in the mortality rate of patients on the waiting list.

  4. Predictive analysis of beer quality by correlating sensory evaluation with higher alcohol and ester production using multivariate statistics methods.

    PubMed

    Dong, Jian-Jun; Li, Qing-Liang; Yin, Hua; Zhong, Cheng; Hao, Jun-Guang; Yang, Pan-Fei; Tian, Yu-Hong; Jia, Shi-Ru

    2014-10-15

    Sensory evaluation is regarded as a necessary procedure to ensure a reproducible quality of beer. Meanwhile, high-throughput analytical methods provide a powerful tool to analyse various flavour compounds, such as higher alcohol and ester. In this study, the relationship between flavour compounds and sensory evaluation was established by non-linear models such as partial least squares (PLS), genetic algorithm back-propagation neural network (GA-BP), support vector machine (SVM). It was shown that SVM with a Radial Basis Function (RBF) had a better performance of prediction accuracy for both calibration set (94.3%) and validation set (96.2%) than other models. Relatively lower prediction abilities were observed for GA-BP (52.1%) and PLS (31.7%). In addition, the kernel function of SVM played an essential role of model training when the prediction accuracy of SVM with polynomial kernel function was 32.9%. As a powerful multivariate statistics method, SVM holds great potential to assess beer quality.

  5. The role of advanced reactive surface area characterization in improving predictions of mineral reaction rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckingham, L. E.; Zhang, S.; Mitnick, E.; Cole, D. R.; Yang, L.; Anovitz, L. M.; Sheets, J.; Swift, A.; Kneafsey, T. J.; Landrot, G.; Mito, S.; Xue, Z.; Steefel, C. I.; DePaolo, D. J.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    Geologic sequestration of CO2 in deep sedimentary formations is a promising means of mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants but the long-term fate of injected CO2 is challenging to predict. Reactive transport models are used to gain insight over long times but rely on laboratory determined mineral reaction rates that have been difficult to extrapolate to field systems. This, in part, is due to a lack of understanding of mineral reactive surface area. Many models use an arbitrary approximation of reactive surface area, applying orders of magnitude scaling factors to measured BET or geometric surface areas. Recently, a few more sophisticated approaches have used 2D and 3D image analyses to determine mineral-specific reactive surface areas that account for the accessibility of minerals. However, the ability of these advanced surface area estimates to improve predictions of mineral reaction rates has yet to be determined. In this study, we fuse X-ray microCT, SEM QEMSCAN, XRD, SANS, and SEM-FIB analysis to determine mineral-specific accessible reactive surface areas for a core sample from the Nagaoka pilot CO2 injection site (Japan). This sample is primarily quartz, plagioclase, smectite, K-feldspar, and pyroxene. SEM imaging shows abundant smectite cement and grain coatings that decrease the fluid accessibility of other minerals. However, analysis of FIB-SEM images reveals that smectite nano-pores are well connected such that access to underlying minerals is not occluded by smectite coatings. Mineral-specific accessible surfaces are determined, accounting for the connectivity of the pore space with and without connected smectite nano-pores. The large-scale impact of variations in accessibility and dissolution rates are then determined through continuum scale modeling using grid-cell specific information on accessible surface areas. This approach will be compared with a traditional continuum scale model using mineral abundances and common surface area

  6. Predicting the impact of anaerobic microsites on soil organic matter mineralization rates in upland soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gee, K. E.; Keiluweit, M.; Denney, A.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Soils are a crucial component of the global carbon (C) cycle, representing a highly dynamic and large reservoir of C stored as soil organic matter (SOM). An important control on SOM residence time is microbial mineralization. While the impact of climactic and site-specific constraints on SOM mineralization rates are recognized, the role of oxygen limitations remains elusive. If oxygen consumption (via heterotrophic respiration) outpaces supply (via diffusion), anaerobic microsites can occur even within seemingly well-aerated upland soils. Under anaerobic conditions, SOM mineralization rates are expected to be slower due to metabolic constraints on microbial C oxidation. Process-based C cycling models have begun to incorporate the inhibiting effect of oxygen limitations by estimating anaerobic pore volume. However, such model predictions still lack experimental validation and research on environmental controls thus far has largely been focused on soil moisture. Here we aimed to determine the extent of anaerobic microsites within seemingly well-aerated upland soils experimentally and identify whether texture, SOM content, and microbial biomass can act as useful predictors in modeling frameworks. To this end, we monitored oxygen dynamics in soils spanning natural and artificial gradients in texture, SOM content and microbial biomass. Anaerobic microsites was visualized using a planar optode imaging system. Oxygen consumption rates were determined using gas chromatography, while oxygen diffusion rates were estimated based on porosity and pore-size distribution quantified by x-ray microtomography. Our results show that bulk oxygen concentrations ranged from 70% to as low as 20% saturation. However, all soils showed substantial micro-scale variability in oxygen concentrations, leading to the formation of anaerobic microsites even at modest moisture content. The extent of anaerobic microsites correlated with an overall reduction in SOM mineralization rates, and depended

  7. Analysis of Current DNA Encoded Library Screening Data Indicates Higher False Negative Rates for Numerically Larger Libraries.

    PubMed

    Satz, Alexander L; Hochstrasser, Remo; Petersen, Ann C

    2017-03-17

    To optimize future DNA-encoded library design, we have attempted to quantify the library size at which the signal becomes undetectable. To accomplish this we (i) have calculated that percent yields of individual library members following a screen range from 0.002 to 1%, (ii) extrapolated that ∼1 million copies per library member are required at the outset of a screen, and (iii) from this extrapolation predict that false negative rates will begin to outweigh the benefit of increased diversity at library sizes >10(8). The above analysis is based upon a large internal data set comprising multiple screens, targets, and libraries; we also augmented our internal data with all currently available literature data. In theory, high false negative rates may be overcome by employing larger amounts of library; however, we argue that using more than currently reported amounts of library (≫10 nmoles) is impractical. The above conclusions may be generally applicable to other DNA encoded library platforms, particularly those platforms that do not allow for library amplification.

  8. Correlating and predicting psychiatric symptom ratings: Spearman's r versus Kendall's tau correlation.

    PubMed

    Arndt, S; Turvey, C; Andreasen, N C

    1999-01-01

    Simple correlations play a large role in the analysis of psychiatric data. They are used to predict outcome, validate new instruments, establish treatment efficacy and find symptom patterns. Researchers and data analysts often face a question about which correlation coefficient to use in a study but are often unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of the alternative correlation measures. The presence of outliers, nonconstant variance, skewed distributions and unequal n are common in psychiatric data and this poses severe problems for many classic statistical methods. We compare Pearson, Spearman and Kendall's correlation coefficients using a large sample of subjects with schizophrenia spectrum disorders who were evaluated with 7 different psychiatric rating scales. Samples sizes ranging from 8 to 50 were evaluated using bootstrapping methods. The criteria for evaluation of the correlations were the type I error rates, power, bias and confidence interval width. Pearson's r did not always control for false positives at the nominal rate and was often unstable. Spearman's r performed better than Pearson's but provided a biased estimate of the true correlation. Spearman's r was also difficult to interpret. Our results suggest that Kendall's tau(b) has many advantages over Pearson's and Spearman's r; when applied to psychiatric data, tau(b) maintained adequate control of type I errors, was nearly as powerful as Pearson's r, provided much tighter confidence intervals and had a clear interpretation.

  9. Predictive validity of curriculum-based measurement and teacher ratings of academic achievement.

    PubMed

    Kettler, Ryan J; Albers, Craig A

    2013-08-01

    Two alternative universal screening approaches to identify students with early learning difficulties were examined, along with a combination of these approaches. These approaches, consisting of (a) curriculum-based measurement (CBM) and (b) teacher ratings using Performance Screening Guides (PSGs), served as predictors of achievement tests in reading and mathematics. Participants included 413 students in grades 1, 2, and 3 in Tennessee (n=118) and Wisconsin (n=295) who were divided into six subsamples defined by grade and state. Reading and mathematics achievement tests with established psychometric properties were used as criteria within a concurrent and predictive validity framework. Across both achievement areas, CBM probes shared more variance with criterion measures than did teacher ratings, although teacher ratings added incremental validity among most subsamples. PSGs tended to be more accurate for identifying students in need of assistance at a 1-month interval, whereas CBM probes were more accurate at a 6-month interval. Teachers indicated that (a) false negatives are more problematic than are false positives, (b) both screening methods are useful for identifying early learning difficulties, and (c) both screening methods are useful for identifying students in need of interventions. Collectively, these findings suggest that the two types of measures, when used together, yield valuable information about students who need assistance in reading and mathematics.

  10. Predicted Rates of Secondary Malignancies From Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy for Stage I Seminoma

    SciTech Connect

    Simone, Charles B.; Kramer, Kevin; O'Meara, William P.; Bekelman, Justin E.; Belard, Arnaud; McDonough, James; O'Connell, John

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Photon radiotherapy has been the standard adjuvant treatment for stage I seminoma. Single-dose carboplatin therapy and observation have emerged as alternative options due to concerns for acute toxicities and secondary malignancies from radiation. In this institutional review board-approved study, we compared photon and proton radiotherapy for stage I seminoma and the predicted rates of excess secondary malignancies for both treatment modalities. Methods and Material: Computed tomography images from 10 consecutive patients with stage I seminoma were used to quantify dosimetric differences between photon and proton therapies. Structures reported to be at increased risk for secondary malignancies and in-field critical structures were contoured. Reported models of organ-specific radiation-induced cancer incidence rates based on organ equivalent dose were used to determine the excess absolute risk of secondary malignancies. Calculated values were compared with tumor registry reports of excess secondary malignancies among testicular cancer survivors. Results: Photon and proton plans provided comparable target volume coverage. Proton plans delivered significantly lower mean doses to all examined normal tissues, except for the kidneys. The greatest absolute reduction in mean dose was observed for the stomach (119 cGy for proton plans vs. 768 cGy for photon plans; p < 0.0001). Significantly more excess secondary cancers per 10,000 patients/year were predicted for photon radiation than for proton radiation to the stomach (4.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.22-5.01), large bowel (0.81; 95% CI, 0.39-1.01), and bladder (0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.58), while no difference was demonstrated for radiation to the pancreas (0.02; 95% CI, -0.01-0.06). Conclusions: For patients with stage I seminoma, proton radiation therapy reduced the predicted secondary cancer risk compared with photon therapy. We predict a reduction of one additional secondary cancer for every 50 patients

  11. Language-independent talker-specificity in first-language and second-language speech production by bilingual talkers: L1 speaking rate predicts L2 speaking rate.

    PubMed

    Bradlow, Ann R; Kim, Midam; Blasingame, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Second-language (L2) speech is consistently slower than first-language (L1) speech, and L1 speaking rate varies within- and across-talkers depending on many individual, situational, linguistic, and sociolinguistic factors. It is asked whether speaking rate is also determined by a language-independent talker-specific trait such that, across a group of bilinguals, L1 speaking rate significantly predicts L2 speaking rate. Two measurements of speaking rate were automatically extracted from recordings of read and spontaneous speech by English monolinguals (n = 27) and bilinguals from ten L1 backgrounds (n = 86): speech rate (syllables/second), and articulation rate (syllables/second excluding silent pauses). Replicating prior work, L2 speaking rates were significantly slower than L1 speaking rates both across-groups (monolinguals' L1 English vs bilinguals' L2 English), and across L1 and L2 within bilinguals. Critically, within the bilingual group, L1 speaking rate significantly predicted L2 speaking rate, suggesting that a significant portion of inter-talker variation in L2 speech is derived from inter-talker variation in L1 speech, and that individual variability in L2 spoken language production may be best understood within the context of individual variability in L1 spoken language production.

  12. Sensitivity of an energy balance climate model with predicted snowfall rates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowman, K. P.

    1985-01-01

    A snowfall parameterization and a polar-ice-sheet model are developed and applied to the two-level zonally averaged seasonal energy-balance climate model of Held and Suarez (1979), and sensitivity experiments involving changes in insolation are performed both with and without ice sheets. The results are presented in tables and graphs, and the hydrological-cycle response to insolation changes is found to be similar to that predicted by global-circulation models employing prescribed precipitation levels, with a somewhat higher sensitivity in the snow line. The area covered by ice sheets in the ice-sheet models is shown to be greater than that covered by permanent snow in the models without ice sheets, an effect attributed to lower surface temperatures over the ice. It is inferred that an increase in the solar constant can cause increased high-latitude precipitation but not an ice age.

  13. Sweat rate and prediction validation during high-altitude treks on Mount Kilimanjaro.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Richard R; Kenefick, Robert W; Muza, Stephen R; Hamilton, Scott W; Sawka, Michael N

    2013-02-15

    This study measured sweat rates (m(sw)) during high-altitude summer treks on Mt. Kilimanjaro to evaluate the efficacy of a recently developed fuzzy piecewise sweat prediction equation (Pw,sol) for application to high-altitude conditions. We hypothesized that the Pw,sol equation, adjusted for the barometric pressure (Pb) decreasing steadily at high altitude (Pw,sol+Alt), would allow for a more accurate prediction of m(sw) than Pw,sol unadjusted for altitude (Pw,sol(SL)). Fifteen men (43 ± 16 yr; 80 ± 22 kg) and seven women (46 ± 16 yr; 77 ± 18 kg) wearing hiking clothes (clo ∼1.15; clothing evaporative potential = 0.27) and carrying light loads (9 ± 2 kg), were studied during morning and afternoon treks (∼2-3 h) while ascending from 2,829 m to 3,505 m. After each trek, m(sw) was measured with specific biophysical parameters at 15-min intervals. During the trek day, Pb progressively declined (530 to 504 Torr), as solar radiation and ambient temperature (°C) rose transiently. During all treks, m(sw) ranged from 68 to 393 g·m(-2)·h(-1) (0.14 to 0.79 l/h). For each subject, derived Pw,sol(SL) and Pw,sol+Alt model outputs accurately predicted the morning and afternoon average m(sw) within a root mean square error of 0.145 l/h. No differences were found between Pw,sol(SL) and Pw,sol+Alt values. In conclusion, we report the first m(sw) measured during outdoor high-altitude activities and determined that Pw,sol(SL) equation can be used to predict fluid needs during high-altitude activities without alterations for lower Pb. This model prediction provides a valid water planning tool for outdoor activities at high altitude up to 3,500 m.

  14. A sigmoid model to predict gastric evacuation rates of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieui fed juvenile salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rogers, Jean Beyer; Burley , Craig C.

    1991-01-01

    Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine the effects of water temperature, predator size, prey size, and prey number on gastric evacuation of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) fed juvenile salmon. The smallmouth bass were allowed to feed voluntarily after 24–48 h of starvation and stomachs were pumped at intervals of 1–4 h until 90% of the stomach contents were evacuated (E90). Evacuation approximated an S-shaped curve over time, and a sigmoid model was developed to predict evacuation at varying water temperatures, total meal weights, predator sizes, and prey number. The rate of evacuation increased with increasing water temperature, meal weight, or predator size. The E90 increased with larger meal weights but decreased with increasing temperature or predator size. E90 ranged between 4 and 95 h, depending upon conditions. E90 was slower than those estimated previously for another predator of salmon, the stomachless northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis).

  15. A predictive model for corrosion fatigue crack growth rates in RPV steels exposed to PWR environments

    SciTech Connect

    Atkinson, J.D.; Chen, Z.; Yu, J.

    1995-12-31

    Corrosion fatigue crack propagation rates have been measured in A533B Class 1 plate in stagnant PWR primary water for a range of steel sulphur contents, temperature and corrosion potential values. Parametric descriptions of the data collected under constant rig conditions give good correlations for each variable and are consistent with a crack tip environment controlled process related to sulphur chemistry. A modified crack velocity equation is proposed to include temperature, sulphur content, polarization potential, frequency and {Delta}K values and it is shown how the predictions compare with the proposed ASME XI revision. Critical fatigue situations are identified for 0.003% and 0.019% sulphur steels typical of modern and old plant. The use of the equation in assessing the synergistic effect of variables is discussed.

  16. Pupillary response predicts multiple object tracking load, error rate, and conscientiousness, but not inattentional blindness.

    PubMed

    Wright, Timothy J; Boot, Walter R; Morgan, Chelsea S

    2013-09-01

    Research on inattentional blindness (IB) has uncovered few individual difference measures that predict failures to detect an unexpected event. Notably, no clear relationship exists between primary task performance and IB. This is perplexing as better task performance is typically associated with increased effort and should result in fewer spare resources to process the unexpected event. We utilized a psychophysiological measure of effort (pupillary response) to explore whether differences in effort devoted to the primary task (multiple object tracking) are related to IB. Pupillary response was sensitive to tracking load and differences in primary task error rates. Furthermore, pupillary response was a better predictor of conscientiousness than primary task errors; errors were uncorrelated with conscientiousness. Despite being sensitive to task load, individual differences in performance and conscientiousness, pupillary response did not distinguish between those who noticed the unexpected event and those who did not. Results provide converging evidence that effort and primary task engagement may be unrelated to IB.

  17. Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

    2012-03-01

    Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

  18. History of frequent gum chewing is associated with higher unstimulated salivary flow rate and lower caries severity in healthy Chinese adults.

    PubMed

    Wang, X P; Zhong, B; Chen, Z K; Stewart, M E; Zhang, C; Zhang, K; Ni, J; Dodds, M W J; Hanley, A B; Miller, L E

    2012-01-01

    This was a single-center, prospective, cross-sectional study stratified by age and gender with the objective of determining the relationship between gum chewing history, salivary flow, and dental caries severity in adults. We enrolled 191 subjects aged 18-65 years who underwent assessments for gum chewing history, unstimulated salivary flow rate, salivary pH, and caries severity. Unstimulated salivary flow rate tended to decline with increasing age (p = 0.04), and significant differences in unstimulated salivary flow rate were also found for males (0.58 ± 0.32 ml/min) versus females (0.48 ± 0.30 ml/min) (p = 0.02). Weekly gum chewing frequency was greater in younger subjects (p = 0.001) while no age group differences were noted in pieces per day or chewing duration. Gum chewing habits were similar in males and females. A multivariate model demonstrated that only days per week chewing gum (p < 0.001) and gender (p = 0.007) were predictive of unstimulated salivary flow rate (R(2) = 0.40). Mean caries severity scores, assessed via ICDAS II and DMFT, increased with age. In multivariate analysis, age was positively associated with ICDAS (p = 0.001) and days per week chewing gum was negatively associated with ICDAS (p = 0.004), indicating that caries severity increased with age, and that days of chewing provided an inverse effect, with increased days of chewing being associated with decreased severity of caries. Overall, a history of frequent gum chewing is associated with higher unstimulated salivary flow rate and lower caries severity.

  19. Higher events rate in patients with a normal gated myocardial perfusion imaging with dipyridamole than exercise: “Run for reliability”

    PubMed Central

    Fatima, Nosheen; uz Zaman, Maseeh; Ishaq, Mohd; Rasheed, S Zahed; Baloch, Dad J; Wali, Asif; Bano, Javeria; Rehman, Kawish

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this is to evaluate the negative predictive value (NPV) of a normal gated myocardial perfusion imaging (NGMPI) with exercise and dipyridamole in a propensity matched population. Materials and Methods: This is a prospective study conducted at Nuclear Cardiology Department of Karachi Institute of Heart Diseases, Karachi from December 2008 until June 2010. A total of 809 patients with a NGMPI with adequate exercise (558/809) or dipyridamole (251/809) stress were included and followed-up for 12-30 months (mean 24 ± 3 months) for fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarctions (MI). Results: Mean ejection fraction (%), end diastolic volume (ml), and end systolic volume (ml) in exercise and dipyridamole cohorts were (72 ± 08, 66 ± 11), (68 ± 13, 81 ± 17), and (19 ± 11, 26 ± 12) respectively. On follow-up, in dipyridamole cohort 2 fatal and 6 non-fatal MIs were reported. While in exercise cohort only 2 non-fatal MIs were reported. The NPV of a NGMPI with exercise was 99.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 98.93-99.96%) with an event rate of 0.3% (95% CI; 0.03-0.6%) and annualized event rate of 0.15%. The NPV of NGMPI with dipyridamole was 96.80% (95% CI; 2.2-4.3%) with an event rate of 3.2% (95% CI; 1.39-3.83%) and annualized event rate of approximately 1.6%. Event free survival for dipyridamole group was significantly lower than exercise analyzed by Log-rank test (14.509, P < 0.001). Conclusion: A NGMPI with dipyridamole stress has higher event rate (low-NPV) as compared with exercise and this raises concern over its credibility to label these patients into low-risk group. PMID:23919070

  20. Ethnic discrimination predicts poor self-rated health and cortisol in pregnancy: insights from New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Thayer, Zaneta M; Kuzawa, Christopher W

    2015-03-01

    Despite growing research emphasis on understanding the health effects of ethnic discrimination, little work has focused on how such exposures may influence a woman's biology and health during pregnancy. Understanding such effects is important given evidence that maternal stress experience in pregnancy can have long term effects on offspring health. Here we present data evaluating the relationship between perceived discrimination, self-rated health, and the stress hormone cortisol measured in late pregnancy among a diverse sample of women living in Auckland, New Zealand (N = 55). We also evaluated possible intergenerational impacts of maternal discrimination on stress reactivity in a subset of offspring (N = 19). Pregnant women were recruited from two antenatal care clinics in Auckland. Women were met in their homes between 34 and 36 weeks gestation, during which time a prenatal stress questionnaire was administered and saliva samples (morning and evening from two days) were obtained. Offspring cortisol reactivity was assessed at the standard six week postnatal vaccination visit. We found that 34% of women reported having experienced ethnic discrimination, with minority and immigrant women being more likely to report being angry or upset in response to discrimination experience compared with NZ-born women of European descent. Women reporting discrimination experience had worse self-rated health, higher evening cortisol and gave birth to infants with higher cortisol reactivity, all independent of ethnicity and material deprivation. These findings suggest that discrimination experience can have biological impacts in pregnancy and across generations, potentially contributing to the ethnic gradient in health.

  1. Predicting Fluctuating Rates of Hospitalizations in Relation to Influenza Epidemics and Meteorological Factors

    PubMed Central

    Batton-Hubert, Mireille; Sarazin, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    Introduction In France, rates of hospital admissions increase at the peaks of influenza epidemics. Predicting influenza-associated hospitalizations could help to anticipate increased hospital activity. The purpose of this study is to identify predictors of influenza epidemics through the analysis of meteorological data, and medical data provided by general practitioners. Methods Historical data were collected from Meteo France, the Sentinelles network and hospitals’ information systems for a period of 8 years (2007–2015). First, connections between meteorological and medical data were estimated with the Pearson correlation coefficient, Principal component analysis and classification methods (Ward and k-means). Epidemic states of tested weeks were then predicted for each week during a one-year period using linear discriminant analysis. Finally, transition probabilities between epidemic states were calculated with the Markov Chain method. Results High correlations were found between influenza-associated hospitalizations and the variables: Sentinelles and emergency department admissions, and anti-correlations were found between hospitalizations and each of meteorological factors applying a time lag of: -13, -12 and -32 days respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. Epidemic weeks were predicted accurately with the linear discriminant analysis method; however there were many misclassifications about intermediate and non-epidemic weeks. Transition probability to an epidemic state was 100% when meteorological variables were below: 2°C, 4 g/m3 and 32 W/m2, respectively for temperature, absolute humidity and solar radiation. This probability was 0% when meteorological variables were above: 6°C, 5.8g/m3 and 74W/m2. Conclusion These results confirm a good correlation between influenza-associated hospitalizations, meteorological factors and general practitioner’s activity, the latter being the strongest predictor of hospital activity. PMID

  2. Predicting metabolic rate during level and uphill outdoor walking using a low-cost GPS receiver.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Dumond, Rémy; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Lavenu, Audrey; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of using speed and grade data obtained from a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver to estimate metabolic rate (MR) during level and uphill outdoor walking. Thirty young, healthy adults performed randomized outdoor walking for 6-min periods at 2.0, 3.5, and 5.0 km/h and on three different grades: 1) level walking, 2) uphill walking on a 3.7% mean grade, and 3) uphill walking on a 10.8% mean grade. The reference MR [metabolic equivalents (METs) and oxygen uptake (V̇o2)] values were obtained using a portable metabolic system. The speed and grade were obtained using a low-cost GPS receiver (1-Hz recording). The GPS grade (Δ altitude/distance walked) was calculated using both uncorrected GPS altitude data and GPS altitude data corrected with map projection software. The accuracy of predictions using reference speed and grade (actual[SPEED/GRADE]) data was high [R(2) = 0.85, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.68 MET]. The accuracy decreased when GPS speed and uncorrected grade (GPS[UNCORRECTED]) data were used, although it remained substantial (R(2) = 0.66, RMSE = 1.00 MET). The accuracy was greatly improved when the GPS speed and corrected grade (GPS[CORRECTED]) data were used (R(2) = 0.82, RMSE = 0.79 MET). Published predictive equations for walking MR were also cross-validated using actual or GPS speed and grade data when appropriate. The prediction accuracy was very close when either actual[SPEED/GRADE] values or GPS[CORRECTED] values (for level and uphill combined) or GPS speed values (for level walking only) were used. These results offer promising research and clinical applications related to the assessment of energy expenditure during free-living walking.

  3. A practical approach to parameter estimation applied to model predicting heart rate regulation

    PubMed Central

    Olufsen, Mette S.; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models have long been used for prediction of dynamics in biological systems. Recently, several efforts have been made to render these models patient specific. One way to do so is to employ techniques to estimate parameters that enable model based prediction of observed quantities. Knowledge of variation in parameters within and between groups of subjects have potential to provide insight into biological function. Often it is not possible to estimate all parameters in a given model, in particular if the model is complex and the data is sparse. However, it may be possible to estimate a subset of model parameters reducing the complexity of the problem. In this study, we compare three methods that allow identification of parameter subsets that can be estimated given a model and a set of data. These methods will be used to estimate patient specific parameters in a model predicting baroreceptor feedback regulation of heart rate during head-up tilt. The three methods include: structured analysis of the correlation matrix, analysis via singular value decomposition followed by QR factorization, and identification of the subspace closest to the one spanned by eigenvectors of the model Hessian. Results showed that all three methods facilitate identification of a parameter subset. The ”best” subset was obtained using the structured correlation method, though this method was also the most computationally intensive. Subsets obtained using the other two methods were easier to compute, but analysis revealed that the final subsets contained correlated parameters. In conclusion, to avoid lengthy computations, these three methods may be combined for efficient identification of parameter subsets. PMID:22588357

  4. Predicting Galaxy Star Formation Rates via the Co-evolution of Galaxies and Halos

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.

    2014-03-06

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, and as such, that more quiescent galaxies reside in older halos. This simple model has been remarkably successful at predicting color-based galaxy statistics at low redshift as measured in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To further test this method with observations, we present new SDSS measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star forming galaxy samples. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also employ a galaxy group finder and show that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR-dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an approx r-.15 slope, independent of environment. The accurate prediction for the spatial distribution of satellites is intriguing given the fact that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite, contrary to most galaxy evolution models. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  5. Heart Rate-Based Prediction of Fixed Blood Lactate Thresholds in Professional Team-Sport Players.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Tabar, Ibai; Llodio, Iñaki; Sánchez-Medina, Luis; Ruesta, Maite; Ibañez, Javier; Gorostiaga, Esteban M

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the speed associated with 90% of maximal heart rate (S90%HRmax) could predict speeds at fixed blood lactate concentrations of 3 mmol·L(-1) (S3mM) and 4 mmol·L(-1) (S4mM). Professional team-sport players of futsal (n = 10), handball (n = 16), and basketball (n = 10) performed a 4-stage discontinuous progressive running test followed, if exhaustion was not previously achieved, by an additional maximal continuous incremental running test to attain maximal heart rate (HRmax). The individual S3mM, S4mM, and S90%HRmax were determined by linear interpolation. S3mM (11.6 ± 1.5 km·h(-1)) and S4mM (12.5 ± 1.4 km·h(-1)) did not differ (p > 0.05) from S90%HRmax (12.0 ± 1.2 km·h(-1)). Very large significant (p < 0.001) relationships were found between S90%HRmax and S3mM (r = 0.82; standard error of the estimates [SEE] = 0.87 km·h(-1)), as well as between S90%HRmax and S4mM (r = 0.82; SEE = 0.87 km·h(-1)). S3mM and S4mM inversely correlated with %HRmax associated with running speeds of 10 and 12 km·h(-1) (r = 0.78-0.81; p < 0.001; SEE = 0.94-0.87 km·h(-1)). In conclusion, S3mM and S4mM can be accurately predicted by S90%HRmax in professional team-sport players.

  6. Depth and rate dependent mechanical behaviors for articular cartilage: experiments and theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Gao, Li-Lan; Zhang, Chun-Qiu; Gao, Hong; Liu, Zhi-Dong; Xiao, Peng-Peng

    2014-05-01

    An optimized digital image correlation (DIC) technique was applied to investigate the depth-dependent mechanical properties of articular cartilage and simultaneously the depth-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model of cartilage was proposed and validated. The creep tests were performed with different stress levels and it is found that the initial strain and instantaneous strain increase; however the creep compliance decreases with the increase of compressive stress. The depth-dependent creep strain of cartilage was obtained by analyzing the images acquired using the optimized DIC technique. Moreover the inhomogeneous creep compliance distributions within the tissues were determined at different creep time points. It is noted that both creep strain and creep compliance with different creep times decrease from cartilage surface to deep. The depth-dependent creep compliance increases with creep time and the increasing amplitude of creep compliance decreases along cartilage depth. The depth-dependent and stress rate dependent nonlinear stress and strain curves were obtained for articular cartilage through uniaxial compression tests. It is found that the Young's modulus of cartilage increases obviously along cartilage depth from superficial layer to deep layer and the Young's modulus of different layers for cartilage increases with the increase of stress rate. The Poisson's ratio of cartilage increases along cartilage depth with given compressive strain and the Poisson's ratio of different layers decreases with the increase of compressive strain. The depth-dependent nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model was proposed and some creep data were applied to determine the parameters of the model. The depth-dependent compressive behaviors of cartilage were predicted by the model and the results show that there are good agreements between the experimental data and predictions.

  7. Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee, Henry; Frazier, Melanie; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Fofonoff, Paul W.; Minton, Mark S.; Miller, A. Whitman

    2013-01-01

    Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of 50 μm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

  8. Predicting total global species richness using rates of species description and estimates of taxonomic effort.

    PubMed

    Costello, Mark J; Wilson, Simon; Houlding, Brett

    2012-10-01

    We found that trends in the rate of description of 580,000 marine and terrestrial species, in the taxonomically authoritative World Register of Marine Species and Catalogue of Life databases, were similar until the 1950s. Since then, the relative number of marine to terrestrial species described per year has increased, reflecting the less explored nature of the oceans. From the mid-19th century, the cumulative number of species described has been linear, with the highest number of species described in the decade of 1900, and fewer species described and fewer authors active during the World Wars. There were more authors describing species since the 1960s, indicating greater taxonomic effort. There were fewer species described per author since the 1920s, suggesting it has become more difficult to discover new species. There was no evidence of any change in individual effort by taxonomists. Using a nonhomogeneous renewal process model we predicted that 24-31% to 21-29% more marine and terrestrial species remain to be discovered, respectively. We discuss why we consider that marine species comprise only 16% of all species on Earth although the oceans contain a greater phylogenetic diversity than occurs on land. We predict that there may be 1.8-2.0 million species on Earth, of which about 0.3 million are marine, significantly less than some previous estimates.

  9. Higher rate of microscopic hematuria in elderly patients who take regular doses of aspirin: Result from AHAP Study

    PubMed Central

    Moudi, Emadouddin; Hosseini, Seyed-Reza; Bijani, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Background: Aspirin is the most widely used drug in medicine for cardiovascular and as recently for its role in cancer prevention. Although the risk of bleeding events increased following regular use of aspirin, little is known about the association of aspirin and hematuria. The present study aimed to evaluate the association of regular aspirin use and microscopic hematuria in elderly. Methods: In this study, we have extracted the data of elderly people who participated in Amirkola Health and Aging Project (AHAP) and taking regular doses of aspirin. The prevalence of microscopic hematuria was compared between the elderly who took aspirin regularly and those who did not take it. Results: A total of 1243 individuals (54.22% males, 45.78% females) were entered in to the study. Two hundred and eighty-four (23%) elderly took regular doses of aspirin. Microscopic hematuria was seen in 305 (24.54%) elderly. The prevalence of microscopic hematuria was 27.27% in regular users of aspirin and 23.72% in non-users of aspirin (P=0.126). The prevalence of microscopic hematuria was significantly higher among the regular users of aspirin compared to non-users in multiple logistic regression analysis (P=0.035, OR=1.40, 95%CI: 1.02-1.92). Conclusion: Taking regular doses of aspirin was accompanied with higher rate of microscopic hematuria in the elderly. PMID:27999646

  10. Severe Septic Patients with Mitochondrial DNA Haplogroup JT Show Higher Survival Rates: A Prospective, Multicenter, Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín, María M.; López-Gallardo, Esther; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Blanquer, José; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Borreguero-León, Juan María; Jiménez, Alejandro; Montoya, Julio; Ruiz-Pesini, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Objective In a previous cohort study (n=96), we found an association between mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplogroup JT and increased survival of severe septic patients, after controlling for age and serum lactic acid levels. The aim of this research was to increase the predictive accuracy and to control for more confounder variables in a larger cohort (n=196) of severe septic patients, to confirm whether mtDNA haplogroup JT influences short and medium-term survival in these patients. Methods We conducted a prospective, multicenter, observational study in six Spanish Intensive Care Units. We determined 30-day and 6-month survival and mtDNA haplogroup in this second cohort of 196 patients and in the global cohort (first and second cohorts combined) with 292 severe septic patients. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to test for the association of mtDNA haplogroups JT with survival at 30-days and 6-months, controlling for age, sex, serum interleukin-6 levels and SOFA score. Results Logistic and Cox regression analyses showed no differences in 30-day and 6-month survival between patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT and other haplogroups in the first cohort (n=96). In the second cohort (n=196), these analyses showed a trend to higher 30-day and 6-month survival in those with haplogroup JT. In the global cohort (n=292), logistic and Cox regression analyses showed higher 30-day and 6-month survival for haplogroup JT. There were no significant differences between J and T sub-haplogroups in 30-day and 6-month survival. Conclusions The global cohort study (first and second cohorts combined), the largest to date reporting on mtDNA haplogroups in septic patients, confirmed that haplogroup JT patients showed increased 30-day and 6-month survival. This finding may be due to single nucleotide polymorphism defining the whole haplogroup JT and not separately for J or T sub-haplogroups. PMID:24069186

  11. Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akyuzlu, Kazim M.; Coote, David

    2013-01-01

    ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

  12. Vagal Regulation of Heart Rate in the Prediction of Developmental Outcome for Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doussard-Roosevelt, Jane A.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Used heart rate and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) assessed at 33 to 35 weeks gestational age to predict developmental outcome at 3 years for very low birth weight infants. Found that RSA measures predicted developmental outcome beyond effects of birth weight, medical risk, and socioeconomic status. For infants < 1,000 grams, RSA maturation…

  13. Can Illness Perceptions Predict Lower Heart Rate Variability following Acute Myocardial Infarction?

    PubMed Central

    Princip, Mary; Scholz, Marco; Meister-Langraf, Rebecca E.; Barth, Jürgen; Schnyder, Ulrich; Znoj, Hansjörg; Schmid, Jean-Paul; Thayer, Julian F.; von Känel, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) has been reported to be a predictor of mortality after myocardial infarction (MI). Patients' beliefs and perceptions concerning their illness may play a role in decreased HRV. This study investigated if illness perceptions predict HRV at 3 months following acute MI. Methods: 130 patients referred to a tertiary cardiology center, were examined within 48 h and 3 months following acute MI. At admission, patients' cognitive representations of their MI were assessed using the German version of the self-rated Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (Brief IPQ). At admission and after 3 months (follow-up), frequency and time domain measures of HRV were obtained from 5-min electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings during stable supine resting. Results: Linear hierarchical regression showed that the Brief IPQ dimensions timeline (β coefficient = 0.29; p = 0.044), personal control (β = 0.47; p = 0.008) and illness understanding (β = 0.43; p = 0.014) were significant predictors of HRV, adjusted for age, gender, baseline HRV, diabetes, beta-blockers, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), attendance of cardiac rehabilitation, and depressive symptoms. Conclusions: As patients' negative perceptions of their illness are associated with lower HRV following acute MI, a brief illness perception questionnaire may help to identify patients who might benefit from a specific illness perceptions intervention. PMID:27917140

  14. A model to predict rate of dissolution of toxic compounds into seawater from an oil spill.

    PubMed

    Riazi, M R; Roomi, Y A

    2008-01-01

    In this paper a semianalytical model has been proposed to predict the rate at which oil components dissolve in water when an oil spill occurs in a marine environment. The model breaks the oil into a number of pseudocomponents proportional to the number of compounds originally present in the oil and calculates the rate of dissolution for each component. In addition, the components are divided into paraffinic, naphthenic, and aromatic hydrocarbon types and the amount of dissolution of each pseudocomponent is calculated versus time. In this method the concentration of most toxic components of oil (mainly monoaromatics) is determined. The model considers variable surface area and slick thickness and requires oil specifications (i.e., American Petroleum Institute [API] gravity and boiling point) in addition to air and water temperatures and speeds. The model has been applied to a Kuwaiti crude oil and its products naphtha and kerosene samples at 20 degrees C and 40 degrees C. The results could be useful in selection of an appropriate method for oil spill clean up as well as simulation of environmental impact of oil spill from toxicity points of view.

  15. Dynamic behavioural changes in the Spontaneously Hyperactive Rat: 3. Control by reinforcer rate changes and predictability.

    PubMed

    Williams, Jonathan; Sagvolden, Geir; Taylor, Eric; Sagvolden, Terje

    2009-03-17

    Variable intervals are widely believed to produce steady rates of responding. However, based on the calming effect of unpredictability in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) we hypothesised that an animal model of this disorder, the Spontaneously Hyperactive (or Hypertensive) Rat, would become less active following particularly variable sequences of interval-lengths in a variable interval schedule. From a large dataset of holepokes and tray-reports by rats in a variable interval reinforcement schedule, we extracted numerous short sequences of intervals on the basis of the first, second, and third derivatives of reinforcement timing (i.e. rate, acceleration, and jerk) in recent intervals. Sets of selected intervals were compared with one another to elucidate the effect of these different derivatives on behaviour in the current interval. Results show that SHR are more active after richer recent reinforcement; after decelerating reinforcers; and after predictable reinforcers. The hypothesis is supported. In conclusion, SHR behaviour largely complies with the Extended Temporal Difference model which in turn has been previously validated against published data in ADHD. The Extended TD model therefore is able to account for two species' behaviour in a wide range of experimental paradigms. SHR are similar in several respects to group averages of children with ADHD, except that SHR have reduced variability and perform actions faster than controls. Hyperactivity in the SHR is very dependent on momentary environmentally determined states, which is an important area for future investigation of ADHD.

  16. Mothers' Adult Attachment Interview ratings predict preschool children's IQ following domestic violence exposure.

    PubMed

    Busch, Amy L; Lieberman, Alicia F

    2010-11-01

    This study examined links between mothers' Adult Attachment Interview ratings (AAI; Main, Goldwyn, & Hesse, 2003) and their preschool children's IQ among 70 families who had experienced domestic violence. As predicted, children displayed significantly stronger verbal and perceptual-organizational abilities when their mothers exhibited more secure, i.e. coherent, states of mind regarding attachment. Mothers' coherence of mind on the AAI explained 18% of the variance in children's Verbal IQ and 12% of the variance in children's Performance IQ, after controlling for maternal education. Mothers' attachment security also was related to children's total IQ score, but this association was accounted for by effects on children's Verbal IQ. Children whose mothers were rated as unclassifiable on the AAI and those whose mothers were unresolved/insecure had lower IQ scores. Although mothers who appeared more secure on the AAI were more sensitively responsive toward their children, mediational analyses suggested that there was a direct link between mothers' security and children's IQ that was not explained by sensitive parenting. This suggests that clinical interventions for children exposed to domestic violence should include helping their mothers achieve coherent ways of thinking about their own childhood experiences, including past trauma.

  17. Visuospatial deficits predict rate of cognitive decline in autopsy-verified dementia with Lewy bodies.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Joanne M; Salmon, David P; Galasko, Douglas; Raman, Rema; Emond, Jenn; Hansen, Lawrence A; Masliah, Eliezer; Thal, Leon J

    2008-11-01

    Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) is often characterized by pronounced impairment in visuospatial skills, attention, and executive functions. However, the strength of the phenotypic expression of DLB varies and may be weaker in patients with extensive concomitant Alzheimer's disease (AD). To determine whether strength of the DLB clinical phenotype impacts cognitive decline, visuospatial and language tests were retrospectively used to predict 2-year rate of global cognitive decline in 22 autopsy-confirmed DLB patients (21 with concomitant AD) and 44 autopsy-confirmed "pure" AD patients. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) revealed a significant interaction such that poor baseline performances on tests of visuospatial skills were strongly associated with a rapid rate of cognitive decline in DLB but not AD (p < .001). No effect of confrontation naming was found. DLB patients with poor visuospatial skills had fewer neurofibrillary tangles and were more likely to experience visual hallucinations than those with better visuospatial skills. These results suggest that the severity of visuospatial deficits in DLB may identify those facing a particularly malignant disease course and may designate individuals whose clinical syndrome is impacted more by Lewy body formation than AD pathology.

  18. Predicting changes in reported notifiable disease rates for New Zealand using a SIR modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McBride, Graham; Slaney, David; Tait, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    changes in reported disease incidence as a function of temperature and rainfall. These models account for age-dependency (children versus adults), which is especially important because children can report substantially higher rates of zoonoses. The model is linear because the zoonotic pathogen 'reservoir' is overwhelmingly among animals, and so the usual interaction in which human-pathogen interactions affect the degree of environmental contamination does not apply in the short term (on the order of one year). Accordingly, the interaction can be approximated by a constant contact rate over a given year, even though the contact rates may vary between decades because of climate change and variability. This linearity property enables the derivation of analytical solutions to the model's governing equations, thereby providing for a more elegant examination of the model's properties and for making projections under climate change. The models have been calibrated to reported rates of these diseases. Simple exponential functions have been used to vary the pathogen contact rates for the reference years 2015, 2040 and 2090 under three climate change scenarios of low, medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases (B1, A1B, and A2). These formulations have been guided by the results of statistical models calibrated to historical disease reporting rates. The models have been used to calculate the ratio of reported illness rates to present rates projected for future years across New Zealand at the ~5 km scale. Detailed results will be presented for the reference year 2040.

  19. Predicting permeability of regular tissue engineering scaffolds: scaling analysis of pore architecture, scaffold length, and fluid flow rate effects.

    PubMed

    Rahbari, A; Montazerian, H; Davoodi, E; Homayoonfar, S

    2017-02-01

    The main aim of this research is to numerically obtain the permeability coefficient in the cylindrical scaffolds. For this purpose, a mathematical analysis was performed to derive an equation for desired porosity in terms of morphological parameters. Then, the considered cylindrical geometries were modeled and the permeability coefficient was calculated according to the velocity and pressure drop values based on the Darcy's law. In order to validate the accuracy of the present numerical solution, the obtained permeability coefficient was compared with the published experimental data. It was observed that this model can predict permeability with the utmost accuracy. Then, the effect of geometrical parameters including porosity, scaffold pore structure, unit cell size, and length of the scaffolds as well as entrance mass flow rate on the permeability of porous structures was studied. Furthermore, a parametric study with scaling laws analysis of sample length and mass flow rate effects on the permeability showed good fit to the obtained data. It can be concluded that the sensitivity of permeability is more noticeable at higher porosities. The present approach can be used to characterize and optimize the scaffold microstructure due to the necessity of cell growth and transferring considerations.

  20. Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Utility in Prediction of 30-Day Readmission Rate in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Gui, Junhong; Zhu, Xiang; Malhotra, Divyanshu; Li, Shenjing; Virkram, Fnu; Chada, Aditya; Jiang, Haibing

    2016-01-01

    Background. Heart failure (HF) is one of the most common diagnoses associated with hospital readmission. We designed this prospective study to evaluate whether Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) score is associated with 30-day readmission in patients hospitalized with decompensated HF. Methods and Results. We enrolled 240 patients who met the study criteria. Forty-eight (20%) patients were readmitted for decompensated HF within thirty days of hospital discharge, and 192 (80%) patients were not readmitted. Compared to readmitted patients, nonreadmitted patients had a higher average KCCQ score (40.8 versus 32.6, P = 0.019) before discharge. Multivariate analyses showed that a high KCCQ score was associated with low HF readmission rate (adjusted OR = 0.566, P = 0.022). The c-statistic for the base model (age + gender) was 0.617. The combination of home medication and lab tests on the base model resulted in an integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) increase of 3.9%. On that basis, the KCQQ further increased IDI of 2.7%. Conclusions. The KCCQ score determined before hospital discharge was significantly associated with 30-day readmission rate in patients with HF, which may provide a clinically useful measure and could significantly improve readmission prediction reliability when combined with other clinical components. PMID:27872790

  1. Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit

    Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain-rate

  2. Island biogeographical theory: Can it be used to predict lotic recovery rates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gore, James A.; Milner, Alexander M.

    1990-09-01

    Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal. These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island, and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen) have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models. Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes. Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form. Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes, a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2A) with recovery times of 90-400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of 40-250 days. Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both

  3. The Efficacy of ATI Predictive Testing and Remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse Pass Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winter, Alexandra Selman

    2013-01-01

    This project study sought to evaluate the effects of implementing quarterly predictive testing and remediation on National Certification and Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN) pass rates of an associate's degree nursing program at a small Midwestern community college. The college's pass rate on the NCLEX-RN has been below both the…

  4. Predicting the Discharge Rate Contribution of the Binuwang Watershed to the Agos River, Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aquino, Dakila; Paningbatan, Eduardo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

    2014-05-01

    In 2004, Typhoon Winnie brought torrential rains which triggered massive landslides and floods which devastated the provinces of Infanta, Real and General Nakar in the Philippines. Winnie inflicted USD 111.14 million worth of damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure and left thousands dead or homeless. The Binuwang River is a sub-tributary of the Agos River, but the extent to which it contributes to flooding has not yet been determined. This study measures the depth of the Binuwang River to estimate the discharge rate contribution of the Binuwang River Watershed to the Agos River using an automatic rain gauge recorder and water level loggers set to record at 5-minute intervals. Flood-generating rainfall events were monitored during the onset of Typhoon Nesat (locally called 'Pedring') September 26-27, 2011. The automated rain gauge recorded 227 mm cumulative rainfall over a 6-hour and 41-minute period. It reached a peak rainfall intensity of 17.5 mm per 5-minute interval that generated a discharge height increase of 1.8 m at the monitoring station and a total discharge volume of 99,823 m3 over a 35-hour duration. An 8.81-hour lag time from the peak rainfall to the peak discharge concentration was recorded. A PCRaster-based hydrologic model was used to predict the total discharge hydrograph of the Binuwang River Watershed. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and soil and land use maps were prepared to parameterize the model. The observed and predicted discharge hydrographs were found to be highly correlated. Among the parameters used to calibrate the model hydrologic output, most sensitive are the infiltration saturation coefficient and Manning's roughness coefficient. An increase in the infiltration saturation coefficient resulted in a decreased discharge height, while an increase of Manning's roughness coefficient lengthened the lag time. The predicted discharge volume and height were used to simulate the impact of reforestation and land conversion to cultivated

  5. Predictive validity of parent- and self-rated ADHD symptoms in adolescence on adverse socioeconomic and health outcomes.

    PubMed

    Du Rietz, Ebba; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Brikell, Isabell; Jangmo, Andreas; Sariaslan, Amir; Lichtenstein, Paul; Kuntsi, Jonna; Larsson, Henrik

    2017-02-10

    There is scarcity of research investigating the validity of self-report of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms compared to other informants, such as parents. This study aimed to compare the predictive associations of ADHD symptoms rated by parents and their children across adolescence on a range of adverse socioeconomic and health outcomes in early adulthood. Parent- and self-rated ADHD symptoms were assessed in 2960 individuals in early (13-14 years) and late adolescence (16-17 years). Logistic regression analyses were used to compare the associations between parent- and self-rated ADHD symptoms at both time points and adverse life outcomes in young adulthood obtained from Swedish national registries. Both parent- and self-ratings of ADHD symptoms were associated with increased risk for adverse outcomes, although associations of parent-ratings were more often statistically significant and were generally stronger (OR = 1.12-1.49, p < 0.05) than self-ratings (OR = 1.07-1.17, p < 0.05). After controlling for the other informant, parent-ratings of ADHD symptoms in both early and late adolescence significantly predicted academic and occupational failure, criminal convictions and traffic-related injuries, while self-ratings of ADHD symptoms only in late adolescence predicted substance use disorder and academic failure. Our findings suggest that both parent- and self-ratings of ADHD symptoms in adolescence provides valuable information on risk of future adverse socioeconomic and health outcomes, however, self-ratings are not valuable once parent-ratings have been taken into account in predicting most outcomes. Thus, clinicians and researchers should prioritize parent-ratings over self-ratings.

  6. Ratings of Perceived Exertion, Heart Rate, and Power Output in Predicting Maximal Oxygen Uptake During Submaximal Cycle Ergometry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilmore, Jack H.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Sixty-two subjects completed a four-stage submaximal cycle ergometer test to determine if estimates of maximal oxygen uptake could be improved by using ratings of perceived exertion singly or in combination with easily obtainable physiological measures. These procedures could be used to estimate the aerobic power of patients and athletes. (MT)

  7. A low bioimpedance phase angle predicts a higher mortality and lower nutritional status in chronic dialysis patients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumler Md, Francis

    2010-04-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis is an established technique for body composition analysis. The phase angle parameter, an index of body cell mass, tissue hydration, and membrane integrity, makes it suitable for assessing nutritional status and survivability. We evaluated the significance of a low phase angle value on nutritional status and mortality in 285 chronic dialysis patients during a longitudinal prospective observational study. Patients in the lower phase angle tertile had decreased body weight, body mass index, fat free mass, body cell mass, and lower serum albumin concentrations than those in the higher tertile (P<001). In addition, mortality rates were significantly lower (P=0.05) in the highest tertile patients. In conclusion, the phase angle is a useful method for identifying dialysis patients at high risk for malnutrition and increased mortality.

  8. Best-fitting prediction equations for basal metabolic rate: informing obesity interventions in diverse populations.

    PubMed

    Sabounchi, N S; Rahmandad, H; Ammerman, A

    2013-10-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) represents the largest component of total energy expenditure and is a major contributor to energy balance. Therefore, accurately estimating BMR is critical for developing rigorous obesity prevention and control strategies. Over the past several decades, numerous BMR formulas have been developed targeted to different population groups. A comprehensive literature search revealed 248 BMR estimation equations developed using diverse ranges of age, gender, race, fat-free mass, fat mass, height, waist-to-hip ratio, body mass index and weight. A subset of 47 studies included enough detail to allow for development of meta-regression equations. Utilizing these studies, meta-equations were developed targeted to 20 specific population groups. This review provides a comprehensive summary of available BMR equations and an estimate of their accuracy. An accompanying online BMR prediction tool (available at http://www.sdl.ise.vt.edu/tutorials.html) was developed to automatically estimate BMR based on the most appropriate equation after user-entry of individual age, race, gender and weight.

  9. Temperature dependences of growth rates and carrying capacities of marine bacteria depart from metabolic theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Díaz-Pérez, Laura; Morán, Xosé Anxelu G

    2015-10-01

    Using the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) framework, we evaluated over a whole annual cycle the monthly responses to temperature of the growth rates (μ) and carrying capacities (K) of heterotrophic bacterioplankton at a temperate coastal site. We used experimental incubations spanning 6ºC with bacterial physiological groups identified by flow cytometry according to membrane integrity (live), nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA) and respiratory activity (CTC+). The temperature dependence of μ at the exponential phase of growth was summarized by the activation energy (E), which was variable (-0.52 to 0.72 eV) but followed a seasonal pattern, only reaching the hypothesized value for aerobic heterotrophs of 0.65 eV during the spring bloom for the most active bacterial groups (live, HNA, CTC+). K (i.e. maximum experimental abundance) peaked at 4 × 10(6) cells mL(-1) and generally covaried with μ but, contrary to MTE predictions, it did not decrease consistently with temperature. In the case of live cells, the responses of μ and K to temperature were positively correlated and related to seasonal changes in substrate availability, indicating that the responses of bacteria to warming are far from homogeneous and poorly explained by MTE at our site.

  10. IMPROVED THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS OF MICROLENSING RATES FOR THE DETECTION OF PRIMORDIAL BLACK HOLE DARK MATTER

    SciTech Connect

    Cieplak, Agnieszka M.; Griest, Kim

    2013-04-20

    Primordial black holes (PBHs) remain a dark matter (DM) candidate of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Previously, we proposed a new method of constraining the remaining PBH DM mass range using microlensing of stars monitored by NASA's Kepler mission. We improve this analysis using a more accurate treatment of the population of the Kepler source stars, their variability, and limb darkening. We extend the theoretically detectable PBH DM mass range down to 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -10} M{sub Sun }, two orders of magnitude below current limits and one-third order of magnitude below our previous estimate. We address how to extract the DM properties, such as mass and spatial distribution, if PBH microlensing events were detected. We correct an error in a well-known finite-source limb-darkening microlensing formula and also examine the effects of varying the light curve cadence on PBH DM detectability. We also introduce an approximation for estimating the predicted rate of detection per star as a function of the star's properties, thus allowing for selection of source stars in future missions, and extend our analysis to planned surveys, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

  11. Using the Inflection Points and Rates of Growth and Decay to Predict Levels of Solar Activity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    The ascending and descending inflection points and rates of growth and decay at specific times during the sunspot cycle are examined as predictors for future activity. On average, the ascending inflection point occurs about 1-2 yr after sunspot minimum amplitude (Rm) and the descending inflection point occurs about 6-7 yr after Rm. The ascending inflection point and the inferred slope (including the 12-mo moving average (12-mma) of (Delta)R (the month-to-month change in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number (R)) at the ascending inflection point provide strong indications as to the expected size of the ongoing cycle s sunspot maximum amplitude (RM), while the descending inflection point appears to provide an indication as to the expected length of the ongoing cycle. The value of the 12-mma of (Delta)R at elapsed time T = 27 mo past the epoch of RM (E(RM)) seems to provide a strong indication as to the expected size of Rm for the following cycle. The expected Rm for cycle 24 is 7.6 +/- 4.4 (the 90-percent prediction interval), occurring before September 2008. Evidence is also presented for secular rises in selected cycle-related parameters and for preferential grouping of sunspot cycles by amplitude and/or period.

  12. Spatial statistical point prediction guidance for heating-rate-limited aeroassisted orbital transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Pradipto; Conway, Bruce A.

    2015-06-01

    Feedback control of constrained non-linear dynamical systems satisfying a certain optimality criterion and meeting a specified transfer objective in the state space is recognized as one of the most challenging problems in control theory. One approach to computing optimal feedback policies is the dynamic programming route of numerically solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation directly. In this paper an alternate and more tractable dynamic programming approach, the optimal feedback synthesis method, is utilized. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through an explicit guidance scheme for the heating-rate-constrained maneuver of an Aeroassisted Transfer Vehicle (AOTV). In optimal feedback synthesis, a feedback chart is constructed from a family of open-loop extremals, thus ensuring optimality with respect to any initial condition in the family. This paper presents a solution to the AOTV optimal feedback synthesis problem using the Gaussian process spatial prediction method of universal kriging. A closed-form expression for a near-optimal guidance law is derived. Its performance is found to be very promising; initial atmospheric entry errors due to simulated thruster misfiring are seen to be accurately corrected while the algebraic state-inequality constraint is closely respected.

  13. A comprehensive study on different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition rates in a perfusion chamber

    PubMed Central

    Pallarès, Jordi; Senan, Oriol; Guimerà, Roger; Vernet, Anton; Aguilar-Mogas, Antoni; Vilahur, Gemma; Badimon, Lina; Sales-Pardo, Marta; Cito, Salvatore

    2015-01-01

    Thrombus formation is a multiscale phenomenon triggered by platelet deposition over a protrombotic surface (eg. a ruptured atherosclerotic plaque). Despite the medical urgency for computational tools that aid in the early diagnosis of thrombotic events, the integration of computational models of thrombus formation at different scales requires a comprehensive understanding of the role and limitation of each modelling approach. We propose three different modelling approaches to predict platelet deposition. Specifically, we consider measurements of platelet deposition under blood flow conditions in a perfusion chamber for different time periods (3, 5, 10, 20 and 30 minutes) at shear rates of 212 s−1, 1390 s−1 and 1690 s−1. Our modelling approaches are: i) a model based on the mass-transfer boundary layer theory; ii) a machine-learning approach; and iii) a phenomenological model. The results indicate that the three approaches on average have median errors of 21%, 20.7% and 14.2%, respectively. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using an empirical data set as a proxy for a real-patient scenario in which practitioners have accumulated data on a given number of patients and want to obtain a diagnosis for a new patient about whom they only have the current observation of a certain number of variables. PMID:26391513

  14. Canine fetal heart rate: do accelerations or decelerations predict the parturition day in bitches?

    PubMed

    Gil, E M U; Garcia, D A A; Giannico, A T; Froes, T R

    2014-10-15

    Ultrasonography is a safe and efficient technique for monitoring fetal development and viability. One of the most important and widely used parameters to verify fetal viability is the fetal heart rate (HR). In human medicine, the fetal HR normally oscillates during labor in transient accelerations and decelerations associated with uterine contractions. The present study investigated whether these variations also occur in canine fetuses and its relationship to parturition. A cohort study was conducted in 15 pregnant bitches undergoing two-dimensional high-resolution ultrasonographic examination during the 8th and 9th week of gestation. Fetal HR was assessed in M-mode for 5 minutes in each fetus in all bitches. In addition, the bitches were monitored for clinical signs of imminent parturition. Associations between the HR, antepartum time, and delivery characteristics were evaluated with a Poisson regression model. Fetal HR acceleration and deceleration occurred in canine fetuses and predicted the optimal time of parturition. These findings can help veterinarians and sonographers better understand this phenomenon in canine fetuses.

  15. Can acoustic vowel space predict the habitual speech rate of the speaker?

    PubMed

    Tsao, Y-C; Iqbal, K

    2005-01-01

    This study aims to find whether the acoustic vowel space reflect the habitual speaking rate of the speaker. The vowel space is defined as the area of the quadrilateral formed by the four corner vowels (i.e.,/i/,/æ/,/u/,/α) in the F1F2- 2 plane. The study compares the acoustic vowel space in the speech of habitually slow and fast talkers and further analyzes them by gender. In addition to the measurement of vowel duration and midpoint frequencies of F1 and F2, the F1/F2 vowel space areas were measured and compared across speakers. The results indicate substantial overlap in vowel space area functions between slow and fast talkers, though the slow speakers were found to have larger vowel spaces. Furthermore, large variability in vowel space area functions was noted among interspeakers in each group. Both F1 and F2 formant frequencies were found to be gender sensitive in consistence with the existing data. No predictive relation between vowel duration and formant frequencies was observed among speakers.

  16. Lung Biopersistence and in Vitro Dissolution Rate Predict the Pathogenic Potential of Synthetic Vitreous Fibers.

    PubMed

    Hesterberg, T W; Hart, G A

    2000-01-01

    Here we review the past decade of research on inorganic fiber toxicology, which demonstrates that fiber biopersistence and in vitro dissolution rate correlate well with fiber pathogenicity. Test fibers for these studies included eight synthetic vitreous fibers (SVFs)-refractory ceramic fiber (RCF1), four fiber glasses (FCs), rock wool, slag wool, HT stone wool-and two asbestos types (crocidolite and amosite). Fiber toxicology and biopersistence were investigated using rodents exposed by inhalation. To evaluate chronic inhalation toxicity, rodents were exposed nose-only to ∼ 100 fibers >20 µm in length (F > 20 µm)/cm(3), 6 h/day, 5 days/wk, for 2 yr (rats) or 1½ yr (hamsters). To evaluate lung biopersistence, rats were exposed nose-only for 5 days to fiber aerosol; lung burdens were then analyzed during 1 yr postexposure. In vitro dissolution rate was evaluated in a flow-through system using physiological solutions that mimic the inorganic components of extra- and intracellular lung fluids. The 10 test fibers encompassed a range of respiratory toxicities, from transient inflammation only to carcinogenesis. Lung clearance weighted half-times (WT½) for F > 20 µm were 6-15 days for stonewool, building insulation FCs, and slag wool; 50-80 days for rock wool, 2 special-application FCs, and RCFI; and >400 days for asbestos. WT½ correlated with pathogenicity: The rapidly clearing fibers were innocuous (insulation FCs, slag wool, and stonewool), but the more biopersistent fibers were fibrogenic (rock wool) or fibrogenic and carcinogenic (special-application FCs, RCFI, amosite and crocidolite asbestos). In vitro dissolution rates (k dis= ng/cm(2)/h) of the 10 fibers at pH 7.4 or 4.5 ranged from < 1 to >600. Fibers that dissolved rapidly in vitro also cleared quickly from the lung and induced only transient inflammation in the chronic studies. In contrast, fibers that dissolved slowly in vitro were biopersistent in the lung and tended to induce permanent pathogenicity

  17. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

    2016-01-01

    Background Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. Methods We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. Results The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11–812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O’Quigley’s method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Conclusion Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients. PMID:27135610

  18. Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species. PMID:24763409

  19. Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Ma, Jun; Hu, Yuanman; Bu, Rencang; Chang, Yu; Deng, Huawei; Qin, Qin

    2014-01-01

    The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.

  20. Fluence rate-dependent photobleaching of intratumorally administered Pc 4 does not predict tumor growth delay.

    PubMed

    Baran, Timothy M; Foster, Thomas H

    2012-01-01

    We examined effects of fluence rate on the photobleaching of the photosensitizer Pc 4 during photodynamic therapy (PDT) and the relationship between photobleaching and tumor response to PDT. BALB/c mice with intradermal EMT6 tumors were given 0.03 mg kg(-1) Pc 4 by intratumor injection and irradiated at 667 nm with an irradiance of 50 or 150 mW cm(-2) to a fluence of 100 J cm(-2). While no cures were attained, significant tumor growth delay was demonstrated at both irradiances compared with drug-only controls. There was no significant difference in tumor responses to these two irradiances (P = 0.857). Fluorescence spectroscopy was used to monitor the bleaching of Pc 4 during irradiation, with more rapid bleaching with respect to fluence shown at the higher irradiance. No significant correlation was found between fluorescence photobleaching and tumor regrowth for the data interpreted as a whole. Within each treatment group, weak associations between photobleaching and outcome were observed. In the 50 mW cm(-2) group, enhanced photobleaching was associated with prolonged growth delay (P = 0.188), while at 150 mW cm(-2) this trend was reversed (P = 0.308). Thus, it appears that Pc 4 photobleaching is not a strong predictor of individual tumor response to Pc 4-PDT under these treatment conditions.

  1. Phenomenological approach to precise creep life prediction by means of quantitative evaluation of strain rate acceleration in secondary creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Hiroyuki; Miyano, Takaya

    2010-07-01

    A method of creep life prediction by means of Strain-Acceleration-Parameter (SAP), α, is presented. The authors show that the shape of creep curve can be characterized by SAP that reflects magnitude of strain-rate change in secondary creep. The SAP-values, α are evaluated on magnesium-aluminium solution hardened alloys. Reconstruction of creep curves by combinations of SAP and minimum-creep rates are successfully performed, and the curves reasonably agree with experiments. The advantage of the proposed method is that the required parameters evaluated from individual creep curves are directly connected with the minimum creep rate. The predicted times-to-failure agree well with that obtained by experiments, and possibility of precise life time prediction by SAP is pronounced.

  2. Significance of vapor phase chemical reactions on CVD rates predicted by chemically frozen and local thermochemical equilibrium boundary layer theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gokoglu, Suleyman A.

    1988-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by vapor-phase chemical reactions on CVD rates by comparing the results of two extreme theories developed to predict CVD mass transport rates in the absence of interfacial kinetic barrier: one based on chemically frozen boundary layer and the other based on local thermochemical equilibrium. Both theories consider laminar convective-diffusion boundary layers at high Reynolds numbers and include thermal (Soret) diffusion and variable property effects. As an example, Na2SO4 deposition was studied. It was found that gas phase reactions have no important role on Na2SO4 deposition rates and on the predictions of the theories. The implications of the predictions of the two theories to other CVD systems are discussed.

  3. Prediction of Heart Rates on a Ropes Course from Simple Physical Measures. Research Update.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Priest, Simon; Montelpare, William

    1995-01-01

    This study identified the highest heart rates attained on a ropes course for a corporate population; examined relationships between highest heart rate and other physical measures (basal heart rate, blood pressure, height, weight, body girths, cholesterol, maximum number of pushups, and heart rate after brisk walk); and developed an equation for…

  4. Relationship between obesity, negative affect and basal heart rate in predicting heart rate reactivity to psychological stress among adolescents.

    PubMed

    Park, Andres E; Huynh, Pauline; Schell, Anne M; Baker, Laura A

    2015-08-01

    Reduced cardiovascular responses to psychological stressors have been found to be associated with both obesity and negative affect in adults, but have been less well studied in children and adolescent populations. These findings have most often been interpreted as reflecting reduced sympathetic nervous system response, perhaps associated with heightened baseline sympathetic activation among the obese and those manifesting negative affect. However, obesity and negative affect may themselves be correlated, raising the question of whether they both independently affect cardiovascular reactivity. The present study thus examined the separate effects of obesity and negative affect on both cardiovascular and skin conductance responses to stress (e.g., during a serial subtraction math task) in adolescents, while controlling for baseline levels of autonomic activity during rest. Both obesity and negative affect had independent and negative associations with cardiovascular reactivity, such that reduced stress responses were apparent for obese adolescents and those with high levels of negative affect. In contrast, neither obesity nor negative affect was related to skin conductance responses to stress, implicating specifically noradrenergic mechanisms rather than sympathetic mechanisms generally as being deficient. Moreover, baseline heart rate was unrelated to obesity in this sample, which suggests that heightened baseline of sympathetic activity is not necessary for the reduced cardiovascular reactivity to stress.

  5. Solubility curves and nucleation rates from molecular dynamics for polymorph prediction - moving beyond lattice energy minimization.

    PubMed

    Parks, Conor; Koswara, Andy; DeVilbiss, Frank; Tung, Hsien-Hsin; Nere, Nandkishor K; Bordawekar, Shailendra; Nagy, Zoltan K; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami

    2017-02-15

    Current polymorph prediction methods, known as lattice energy minimization, seek to determine the crystal lattice with the lowest potential energy, rendering it unable to predict solvent dependent metastable form crystallization. Facilitated by embarrassingly parallel, multiple replica, large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, we report on a new method concerned with predicting crystal structures using the kinetics and solubility of the low energy polymorphs predicted by lattice energy minimization. The proposed molecular dynamics simulation methodology provides several new predictions to the field of crystallization. (1) The methodology is shown to correctly predict the kinetic preference for β-glycine nucleation in water relative to α- and γ-glycine. (2) Analysis of nanocrystal melting temperatures show γ- nanocrystals have melting temperatures up to 20 K lower than either α- or β-glycine. This provides a striking explanation of how an energetically unstable classical nucleation theory (CNT) transition state complex leads to kinetic inaccessibility of γ-glycine in water, despite being the thermodynamically preferred polymorph predicted by lattice energy minimization. (3) The methodology also predicts polymorph-specific solubility curves, where the α-glycine solubility curve is reproduced to within 19% error, over a 45 K temperature range, using nothing but atomistic-level information provided from nucleation simulations. (4) Finally, the methodology produces the correct solubility ranking of β- > α-glycine. In this work, we demonstrate how the methodology supplements lattice energy minimization with molecular dynamics nucleation simulations to give the correct polymorph prediction, at different length scales, when lattice energy minimization alone would incorrectly predict the formation of γ-glycine in water from the ranking of lattice energies. Thus, lattice energy minimization optimization algorithms are supplemented with the necessary solvent

  6. Effect of Load Rate on Tensile Strength of Various CFCCs at Elevated Temperatures: An Approach to Life Prediction Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Strength of three continuous fiber-reinforced ceramic composites, including SiC/CAS-11, SiC/MAS-5 and SiC/SiC, was determined as a function of test rate in air at 1100 - 1200 C. All three composite materials exhibited a strong dependency of strength on test rate, similar to the behavior observed in many advanced monolithic ceramics at elevated temperatures. The application of the preloading technique as well as the prediction of life from one loading configuration (constant stress-rate) to another (constant stress loading) suggested that the overall macroscopic failure mechanism of the composites would be the one governed by a power-law tyw of damage evolution/accumulation, analogous to slow crack growth commonly observed in advanced monolithic ceramics. It was further found that constant stress-rate testing could be used as an alternative to life prediction test methodology even for the composite materials at least for the short range of lifetime.

  7. TP53 mutations are associated with higher rates of pathologic complete response to anthracycline/cyclophosphamide-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy in operable primary breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuxia; Xu, Ye; Chen, Jiuan; Ouyang, Tao; Li, Jinfeng; Wang, Tianfeng; Fan, Zhaoqing; Fan, Tie; Lin, Benyao; Xie, Yuntao

    2016-01-15

    The role of TP53 mutations in predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer remains controversial. The aims of this study were to investigate whether TP53 mutations were associated with response and survival in breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Therefore, we identified TP53 mutations in the core-needle biopsy tumor samples obtained before the neoadjuvant chemotherapy from 351 operable primary breast cancer patients who either received anthracycline/cyclophosphamide-based (n = 252) or paclitaxel (n = 99) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We found that 41.0% (144 of 351) of patients harbored TP53 mutations, and 14.8% of patients achieved a pCR (pathologic complete response) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Among patients treated with anthracycline/cyclophosphamide (n = 252), patients with TP53 mutations had a significantly higher pCR rate than those with wild-type (28.6 vs.7.1%; p < 0.001), and TP53 mutation was an independent favorable predictor of pCR [odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-7.77; p = 0.003] in this group; moreover, patients with TP53 mutation had a better distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) than those with wild-type [unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.43; 95% CI 0.20-0.94; p = 0.030] in this group. Among patients treated with paclitaxel (n = 99), no significant difference in pCR rates was observed between patients with or without TP53 mutations (15.2 vs. 11.3%; p = 0.57). Our results suggested that patients with TP53 mutations are more likely to respond to anthracycline/ cyclophosphamide-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and have a favorable survival.

  8. New Directions for Higher Education: Q&A with Ed Dept's Studley on College Ratings, Feds

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DiSalvio, Philip

    2014-01-01

    In April 2013, "NEJHE" launched its "New Directions for Higher Education" series to examine emerging issues, trends and ideas that have an impact on higher education policies, programs, and practices. In this installment, Philip DiSalvio interviews U.S. Department of Education Deputy Under Secretary Jamienne S. Studley, who…

  9. A framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates.

    PubMed

    Helbling, Damian E; Johnson, David R; Lee, Tae Kwon; Scheidegger, Andreas; Fenner, Kathrin

    2015-03-01

    The rates at which wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) microbial communities biotransform specific substrates can differ by orders of magnitude among WWTP communities. Differences in taxonomic compositions among WWTP communities may predict differences in the rates of some types of biotransformations. In this work, we present a novel framework for establishing predictive relationships between specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence abundances and biotransformation rates. We selected ten WWTPs with substantial variation in their environmental and operational metrics and measured the in situ ammonia biotransformation rate constants in nine of them. We isolated total RNA from samples from each WWTP and analyzed 16S rRNA sequence reads. We then developed multivariate models between the measured abundances of specific bacterial 16S rRNA sequence reads and the ammonia biotransformation rate constants. We constructed model scenarios that systematically explored the effects of model regularization, model linearity and non-linearity, and aggregation of 16S rRNA sequences into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) as a function of sequence dissimilarity threshold (SDT). A large percentage (greater than 80%) of model scenarios resulted in well-performing and significant models at intermediate SDTs of 0.13-0.14 and 0.26. The 16S rRNA sequences consistently selected into the well-performing and significant models at those SDTs were classified as Nitrosomonas and Nitrospira groups. We then extend the framework by applying it to the biotransformation rate constants of ten micropollutants measured in batch reactors seeded with the ten WWTP communities. We identified phylogenetic groups that were robustly selected into all well-performing and significant models constructed with biotransformation rates of isoproturon, propachlor, ranitidine, and venlafaxine. These phylogenetic groups can be used as predictive biomarkers of WWTP microbial community activity towards these specific

  10. Medial frontal cortex and anterior insula are less sensitive to outcome predictability when monetary stakes are higher.

    PubMed

    Stern, Emily R; Gonzalez, Richard; Welsh, Robert C; Taylor, Stephan F

    2014-10-01

    Prior research links greater activation of posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) and anterior insula (AI) with decreasing outcome predictability during decision making, as measured by decreasing probability for the more likely outcome out of two or increasing outcome variance. In addition to predictability, much work indicates that the magnitude or 'stakes' of the outcome is also important. Despite the interest in the neural correlates of these decision variables, it is unknown whether pMFC and AI are differentially sensitive to predictability when magnitude is varied. This study examined brain activity during decision making in relation to decreasing outcome predictability for low as compared with high magnitude decisions. For low magnitude decisions, reduced predictability of the outcome was associated with greater activity in pMFC and bilateral AI, replicating prior studies. In contrast, there was no relationship between predictability and brain activity for high magnitude decisions, which tended to elicit greater pMFC and AI activity than low magnitude decisions for more predictable outcomes. These data indicate that the relationship between outcome predictability and pMFC and AI activity during decision making depends on magnitude, and suggest that these regions may be responding to the motivational salience of the decision rather than predictability information per se.

  11. Higher Dropout Rate in Non-Native Patients than in Native Patients in Rehabilitation in The Netherlands

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloots, Maurits; Scheppers, Emmanuel F.; van de Weg, Frans B.; Dekker, Jos H.; Bartels, Edien A.; Geertzen, Jan H.; Dekker, Joost

    2009-01-01

    Dropout from a rehabilitation programme often occurs in patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain of non-native origin. However, the exact dropout rate is not known. The objective of this study was to determine the difference in dropout rate between native and non-native patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain participating in a…

  12. Accounting for Risk of Non-Completion in Private and Social Rates of Return to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toutkoushian, Robert K.; Shafiq, M. Najeeb; Trivette, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Conventional studies of the private and social rates of return to a Bachelor's degree focus on the earnings difference between Bachelor degree holders and high school graduates, and find that there are large rates of return for degree recipients. The estimates in these studies, however, do not take into account the risk of not completing a degree.…

  13. The Use of High School Faculty Ratings to Predict USMA Fourth Class Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLaughlin, Gerald W.

    The potential use of High School Faculty Ratings for admission purposes is investigated. The ratings include the evaluations of a candidate on 10 traits and three overall characteristics. The rating forms are given to a mathematics, English, and physical education teacher, a counselor or high school principal, and one other faculty member by the…

  14. Using Heart Rate to Predict Resilience and Susceptibility to PTSD in Soldiers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-04-01

    similar methods. Elsesser, Sartory & Tackenberg (2004) designed a fairly similar experiment which in which they measured heart rate, attention, and...heart rate and a greater sense of attention. Elsesser, K., Sartory ,G. & Tackenberg, A. (2004). Attention, heart rate, and startle response during

  15. Dynamic analysis of heart rate may predict subsequent ventricular tachycardia after myocardial infarction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Makikallio, T. H.; Seppanen, T.; Airaksinen, K. E.; Koistinen, J.; Tulppo, M. P.; Peng, C. K.; Goldberger, A. L.; Huikuri, H. V.

    1997-01-01

    Dynamics analysis of RR interval behavior and traditional measures of heart rate variability were compared between postinfarction patients with and without vulnerability to ventricular tachyarrhythmias in a case-control study. Short-term fractal correlation of heart rate dynamics was better than traditional measures of heart rate variability in differentiating patients with and without life-threatening arrhythmias.

  16. MERGER RATES OF DOUBLE NEUTRON STARS AND STELLAR ORIGIN BLACK HOLES: THE IMPACT OF INITIAL CONDITIONS ON BINARY EVOLUTION PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Mink, S. E. de; Belczynski, K. E-mail: kbelczyn@astrouw.edu.pl

    2015-11-20

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor of 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.

  17. Chimpanzee choice rates in competitive games match equilibrium game theory predictions.

    PubMed

    Martin, Christopher Flynn; Bhui, Rahul; Bossaerts, Peter; Matsuzawa, Tetsuro; Camerer, Colin

    2014-06-05

    The capacity for strategic thinking about the payoff-relevant actions of conspecifics is not well understood across species. We use game theory to make predictions about choices and temporal dynamics in three abstract competitive situations with chimpanzee participants. Frequencies of chimpanzee choices are extremely close to equilibrium (accurate-guessing) predictions, and shift as payoffs change, just as equilibrium theory predicts. The chimpanzee choices are also closer to the equilibrium prediction, and more responsive to past history and payoff changes, than two samples of human choices from experiments in which humans were also initially uninformed about opponent payoffs and could not communicate verbally. The results are consistent with a tentative interpretation of game theory as explaining evolved behavior, with the additional hypothesis that chimpanzees may retain or practice a specialized capacity to adjust strategy choice during competition to perform at least as well as, or better than, humans have.

  18. The (B)link Between Creativity and Dopamine: Spontaneous Eye Blink Rates Predict and Dissociate Divergent and Convergent Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermahini, Soghra Akbari; Hommel, Bernhard

    2010-01-01

    Human creativity has been claimed to rely on the neurotransmitter dopamine, but evidence is still sparse. We studied whether individual performance (N=117) in divergent thinking (alternative uses task) and convergent thinking (remote association task) can be predicted by the individual spontaneous eye blink rate (EBR), a clinical marker of…

  19. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition.

    PubMed

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers' interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R(2) = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R(2) = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R(2) = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age.

  20. Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

  1. The Prediction of Teacher Morale Using the Supervisory Conference Rating, the Zones of Indifference Instrument and Selected Personal Variables.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blackbourn, Joe M.; Wilkes, Sam T.

    A prediction equation for teacher morale was developed from the responses of 236 teachers in a large school system in Mississippi. The Supervisory Conference Rating (SCR) was used to measure teachers' perceptions of the supervisory conference following observation by the principal. The Zones of Indifference of these teachers were measured with the…

  2. Measuring Life Stress: A Comparison of the Predictive Validity of Different Scoring Systems for the Social Readjustment Rating Scale.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrath, Robert E. V.; Burkhart, Barry R.

    1983-01-01

    Assessed whether accounting for variables in the scoring of the Social Readjustment Rating Scale (SRRS) would improve the predictive validity of the inventory. Results from 107 sets of questionnaires showed that income and level of education are significant predictors of the capacity to cope with stress. (JAC)

  3. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition

    PubMed Central

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Scoring for Autism, quantifying toddlers’ interest in toys, social routines, and activities that could serve as reinforcers in an intervention. Adaptive level and mental age were measured concurrently (Time 1) and again after a mean of 16.3 months of treatment (Time 2). Interest Level Scoring for Autism score, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule score, adaptive age equivalent, verbal and nonverbal mental age, and intensity of intervention were entered into regression models to predict rates of skill acquisition. Interest level at Time 1 predicted subsequent acquisition rate of adaptive skills (R2 = 0.36) and verbal mental age (R2 = 0.30), above and beyond the effects of Time 1 verbal and nonverbal mental ages and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule scores. Interest level at Time 1 also contributed (R2 = 0.30), with treatment intensity, to variance in development of nonverbal mental age. PMID:25398893

  4. Subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition in Hill-type model predicts higher muscle forces in dynamic tasks.

    PubMed

    Gerus, Pauline; Rao, Guillaume; Berton, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Neuromusculoskeletal models are a common method to estimate muscle forces. Developing accurate neuromusculoskeletal models is a challenging task due to the complexity of the system and large inter-subject variability. The estimation of muscles force is based on the mechanical properties of tendon-aponeurosis complex. Most neuromusculoskeletal models use a generic definition of the tendon-aponeurosis complex based on in vitro test, perhaps limiting their validity. Ultrasonography allows subject-specific estimates of the tendon-aponeurosis complex's mechanical properties. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of subject-specific mechanical properties of the tendon-aponeurosis complex on a neuromusculoskeletal model of the ankle joint. Seven subjects performed isometric contractions from which the tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was estimated. Hopping and running tasks were performed and muscle forces were estimated using subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis and generic tendon properties. Two ultrasound probes positioned over the muscle-tendon junction and the mid-belly were combined with motion capture to estimate the in vivo tendon and aponeurosis strain of the medial head of gastrocnemius muscle. The tendon-aponeurosis force-strain relationship was scaled for the other ankle muscles based on tendon and aponeurosis length of each muscle measured by ultrasonography. The EMG-driven model was calibrated twice - using the generic tendon definition and a subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis force-strain definition. The use of subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a higher muscle force estimate for the soleus muscle and the plantar-flexor group, and to a better model prediction of the ankle joint moment compared to the model estimate which used a generic definition. Furthermore, the subject-specific tendon-aponeurosis definition leads to a decoupling behaviour between the muscle fibre and muscle-tendon unit in agreement with

  5. Predicting fractional bed load transport rates: Application of the Wilcock-Crowe equations to a regulated gravel bed river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gaeuman, D.; Andrews, E.D.; Kraus, A.; Smith, W.

    2009-01-01

    Bed load samples from four locations in the Trinity River of northern California are analyzed to evaluate the performance of the Wilcock-Crowe bed load transport equations for predicting fractional bed load transport rates. Bed surface particles become smaller and the fraction of sand on the bed increases with distance downstream from Lewiston Dam. The dimensionless reference shear stress for the mean bed particle size (t*rm) is largest near the dam, but varies relatively little between the more downstream locations. The relation between t*rm and the reference shear stresses for other size fractions is constant across all locations. Total bed load transport rates predicted with the Wilcock-Crowe equations are within a factor of 2 of sampled transport rates for 68% of all samples. The Wilcock-Crowe equations nonetheless consistently under-predict the transport of particles larger than 128 mm, frequently by more than an order of magnitude. Accurate prediction of the transport rates of the largest particles is important for models in which the evolution of the surface grain size distribution determines subsequent bed load transport rates. Values of term estimated from bed load samples are up to 50% larger than those predicted with the Wilcock-Crowe equations, and sampled bed load transport approximates equal mobility across a wider range of grain sizes than is implied by the equations. Modifications to theWilcock-Crowe equation for determining t*rm and the hiding function used to scale term to other grain size fractions are proposed to achieve the best fit to observed bed load transport in the Trinity River. Copyright 2009 by the American eophysical Union.

  6. Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2016-02-01

    Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

  7. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2016-01-01

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  8. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    PubMed

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2014-12-06

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  9. Effect of higher harmonic control on helicopter rotor blade-vortex interaction noise: Prediction and initial validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beaumier, P.; Prieur, J.; Rahier, G.; Spiegel, P.; Demargne, A.; Tung, C.; Gallman, J. M.; Yu, Y. H.; Kube, R.; Vanderwall, B. G.

    1995-01-01

    The paper presents a status of theoretical tools of AFDD, DLR, NASA and ONERA for prediction of the effect of HHC on helicopter main rotor BVI noise. Aeroacoustic predictions from the four research centers, concerning a wind tunnel simulation of a typical descent flight case without and with HHC are presented and compared. The results include blade deformation, geometry of interacting vortices, sectional loads and noise. Acoustic predictions are compared to experimental data. An analysis of the results provides a first insight of the mechanisms by which HHC may affect BVI noise.

  10. Behavioural type in newly emerged steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss does not predict growth rate in a conventional hatchery rearing environment.

    PubMed

    Conrad, J L; Sih, A

    2009-10-01

    Behavioural assays were conducted on newly emerged steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to investigate the presence of behavioural syndromes and to determine whether behavioural type in young fish predicts growth rate in a conventional hatchery rearing environment. Individual fry were consistent in their position choice and activity behaviours across safe and unsafe contexts, as well as among assays conducted on different days. Position choice and activity behaviours, however, were not necessarily correlated to each other. Both behaviours predicted feeding rates during behavioural assays, but there was no relationship between fry behaviour and subsequent growth rate or survival during the first 3 months of hatchery rearing. These results support the hypothesis that selection in captivity may be relaxed with respect to behavioural type rather than directional, allowing for increased behavioural variance in domesticated populations. Modest magnitudes of correlations among fry behaviours, however, suggest that behavioural type may be unstable at the onset of the juvenile feeding stage.

  11. Higher body mass index and lower intake of dairy products predict poor glycaemic control among Type 2 Diabetes patients in Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Shu, Ping Soon; Chan, Yoke Mun; Huang, Soo Lee

    2017-01-01

    This cross-sectional study was designed to determine factors contributing to glyceamic control in order to provide better understanding of diabetes management among Type 2 Diabetes patients. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was used to obtain information on socio-demographic and medical history. As a proxy measure for glycaemic control, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was obtained as secondary data from the medical reports. Perceived self-care barrier on diabetes management, diet knowledge and skills, and diet quality were assessed using pretested instruments. With a response rate of 80.3%, 155 subjects were recruited for the study. Mean HbA1c level of the subjects was 9.02 ± 2.25% with more than 70% not able to achieve acceptable level in accordance to WHO recommendation. Diet quality of the subjects was unsatisfactory especially for vegetables, fruits, fish and legumes as well as from the milk and dairy products group. Higher body mass index (BMI), poorer medication compliance, lower diet knowledge and skill scores and lower intake of milk and dairy products contributed significantly on poor glycaemic control. In conclusion, while perceived self-care barriers and diet quality failed to predict HbA1c, good knowledge and skill ability, together with appropriate BMI and adequate intake of dairy products should be emphasized to optimize glycaemic control among type 2 diabetes patients. PMID:28234927

  12. Prediction of heart rate response to conclusion of the spontaneous breathing trial by fluctuation dissipation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Man; Niestemski, Liang Ren; Prevost, Robert; McRae, Michael; Cholleti, Sharath; Najarro, Gabriel; Buchman, Timothy G.; Deem, Michael W.

    2013-02-01

    The non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation theorem is applied to predict how critically ill patients respond to treatment, based upon data currently collected by standard hospital monitoring devices. This framework is demonstrated on a common procedure in critical care: the spontaneous breathing trial. It is shown that the responses of groups of similar patients to the spontaneous breathing trial can be predicted by the non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation approach. This mathematical framework, when fully formed and applied to other clinical interventions, may serve as part of the basis for personalized critical care.

  13. Predicting Offender-Generated Exchange Rates: Implications for a Theory of Sentence Severity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, David C.; Wood, Peter B.; Mooney, Jennifer L.; Minor, Kevin I.

    2005-01-01

    We solicited offender-generated exchange rates between prison and several noncustodial sanctions from a sample of 588 offenders currently serving community-based punishments. We then regressed these exchange rates on demographic, attitudinal, and correctional experience indicators. Males, Blacks, older offenders, offenders with prison experience,…

  14. Assessing youth offenders in a non-Western context: The predictive validity of the YLS/CMI ratings.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Lee, Yirong; Zeng, Gerald; Yim, Grace; Tan, Chen Yeh; Ang, Yaming; Chin, Shannon; Ruby, Kala

    2015-09-01

    Empirical support for the usage of the Youth Level of Service measures has been reported in studies conducted in the North America, United Kingdom, and Australia. Recent meta-analytic studies on the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) have revealed that the measure has modest to moderate predictive validity for general recidivism, but there are very few studies on the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI ratings for recidivism in non-Western contexts. This study examined the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI 2.0 ratings for general recidivism in a sample of 3,264 youth offenders within a Singaporean context (Mfollow-up = 1,764.5 days; SDfollow-up = 521.5). Results showed that the YLS/CMI 2.0 overall risk ratings and total scores significantly predicted general recidivism for both male and female youth offenders. Overall, the results suggest that the YLS/CMI 2.0 is suited for assessing youth offenders in terms of their risk for general recidivism within a non-Western context.

  15. Hydraulic conductance as well as nitrogen accumulation plays a role in the higher rate of leaf photosynthesis of the most productive variety of rice in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Taylaran, Renante D.; Adachi, Shunsuke; Ookawa, Taiichiro; Usuda, Hideaki; Hirasawa, Tadashi

    2011-01-01

    An indica variety Takanari is known as one of the most productive rice varieties in Japan and consistently produces 20–30% heavier dry matter during ripening than Japanese commercial varieties in the field. The higher rate of photosynthesis of individual leaves during ripening has been recognized in Takanari. By using pot-grown plants under conditions of minimal mutual shading, it was confirmed that the higher rate of leaf photosynthesis is responsible for the higher dry matter production after heading in Takanari as compared with a japonica variety, Koshihikari. The rate of leaf photosynthesis and shoot dry weight became larger in Takanari after the panicle formation and heading stages, respectively, than in Koshihikari. Roots grew rapidly in the panicle formation stage until heading in Takanari compared with Koshihikari. The higher rate of leaf photosynthesis in Takanari resulted not only from the higher content of leaf nitrogen, which was caused by its elevated capacity for nitrogen accumulation, but also from higher stomatal conductance. When measured under light-saturated conditions, stomatal conductance was already decreased due to the reduction in leaf water potential in Koshihikari even under conditions of a relatively small difference in leaf–air vapour pressure difference. In contrast, the higher stomatal conductance was supported by the maintenance of higher leaf water potential through the higher hydraulic conductance in Takanari with the larger area of root surface. However, no increase in root hydraulic conductivity was expected in Takanari. The larger root surface area of Takanari might be a target trait in future rice breeding for increasing dry matter production. PMID:21527630

  16. Hydraulic conductance as well as nitrogen accumulation plays a role in the higher rate of leaf photosynthesis of the most productive variety of rice in Japan.

    PubMed

    Taylaran, Renante D; Adachi, Shunsuke; Ookawa, Taiichiro; Usuda, Hideaki; Hirasawa, Tadashi

    2011-07-01

    An indica variety Takanari is known as one of the most productive rice varieties in Japan and consistently produces 20-30% heavier dry matter during ripening than Japanese commercial varieties in the field. The higher rate of photosynthesis of individual leaves during ripening has been recognized in Takanari. By using pot-grown plants under conditions of minimal mutual shading, it was confirmed that the higher rate of leaf photosynthesis is responsible for the higher dry matter production after heading in Takanari as compared with a japonica variety, Koshihikari. The rate of leaf photosynthesis and shoot dry weight became larger in Takanari after the panicle formation and heading stages, respectively, than in Koshihikari. Roots grew rapidly in the panicle formation stage until heading in Takanari compared with Koshihikari. The higher rate of leaf photosynthesis in Takanari resulted not only from the higher content of leaf nitrogen, which was caused by its elevated capacity for nitrogen accumulation, but also from higher stomatal conductance. When measured under light-saturated conditions, stomatal conductance was already decreased due to the reduction in leaf water potential in Koshihikari even under conditions of a relatively small difference in leaf-air vapour pressure difference. In contrast, the higher stomatal conductance was supported by the maintenance of higher leaf water potential through the higher hydraulic conductance in Takanari with the larger area of root surface. However, no increase in root hydraulic conductivity was expected in Takanari. The larger root surface area of Takanari might be a target trait in future rice breeding for increasing dry matter production.

  17. Anger responses to psychosocial stress predict heart rate and cortisol stress responses in men but not women.

    PubMed

    Lupis, Sarah B; Lerman, Michelle; Wolf, Jutta M

    2014-11-01

    While previous research has suggested that anger and fear responses to stress are linked to distinct sympathetic nervous system (SNS) stress responses, little is known about how these emotions predict hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity. Further, earlier research primarily relied on retrospective self-report of emotion. The current study aimed at addressing both issues in male and female individuals by assessing the role of anger and fear in predicting heart rate and cortisol stress responses using both self-report and facial coding analysis to assess emotion responses. We exposed 32 healthy students (18 female; 19.6±1.7 yr) to an acute psychosocial stress paradigm (TSST) and measured heart rate and salivary cortisol levels throughout the protocol. Anger and fear before and after stress exposure was assessed by self-report, and video recordings of the TSST were assessed by a certified facial coder to determine emotion expression (FACS). Self-reported emotions and emotion expressions did not correlate (all p>.23). Increases in self-reported fear predicted blunted cortisol responses in men (β=0.41, p=.04). Also for men, longer durations of anger expression predicted exaggerated cortisol responses (β=0.67 p=.004), and more anger incidences predicted exaggerated cortisol and heart rate responses (β=0.51, p=.033; β=0.46, p=.066, resp.). Anger and fear did not predict SNS or HPA activity for females (all p>.23). The current differential self-report and facial coding findings support the use of multiple modes of emotion assessment. Particularly, FACS but not self-report revealed a robust anger-stress association that could have important downstream health effects for men. For women, future research may clarify the role of other emotions, such as self-conscious expressions of shame, for physiological stress responses. A better understanding of the emotion-stress link may contribute to behavioral interventions targeting health-promoting ways of

  18. Predicting metabolic rate across walking speed: One fit for all body sizes?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We formulated a "one-size-fits-all" model that predicts the energy requirements of level human walking from height, weight, and walking speed. Our three-component model theorizes that the energy expended per kilogram per stride is independent of stature at mechanically equivalent walking speeds. We ...

  19. Population Mean Scores Predict Child Mental Disorder Rates: Validating SDQ Prevalence Estimators in Britain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Anna; Goodman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Background: For adult physical and mental health, the population mean predicts the proportion of individuals with "high" scores. This has not previously been investigated for child mental health. It is also unclear how far symptom scores on brief questionnaires provide an unbiased method of comparing children with different individual,…

  20. Combining quantitative trait loci analysis with physiological models to predict genotype-specific transpiration rates.

    PubMed

    Reuning, Gretchen A; Bauerle, William L; Mullen, Jack L; McKay, John K

    2015-04-01

    Transpiration is controlled by evaporative demand and stomatal conductance (gs ), and there can be substantial genetic variation in gs . A key parameter in empirical models of transpiration is minimum stomatal conductance (g0 ), a trait that can be measured and has a large effect on gs and transpiration. In Arabidopsis thaliana, g0 exhibits both environmental and genetic variation, and quantitative trait loci (QTL) have been mapped. We used this information to create a genetically parameterized empirical model to predict transpiration of genotypes. For the parental lines, this worked well. However, in a recombinant inbred population, the predictions proved less accurate. When based only upon their genotype at a single g0 QTL, genotypes were less distinct than our model predicted. Follow-up experiments indicated that both genotype by environment interaction and a polygenic inheritance complicate the application of genetic effects into physiological models. The use of ecophysiological or 'crop' models for predicting transpiration of novel genetic lines will benefit from incorporating further knowledge of the genetic control and degree of independence of core traits/parameters underlying gs variation.

  1. Do Expenditures Other Than Instructional Expenditures Affect Graduation and Persistence Rates in American Higher Education. NBER Working Paper No. 15216

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Douglas A.; Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    2009-01-01

    During the last two decades, median instructional spending per full-time equivalent (FTE) student at American 4-year colleges and universities has grown at a slower rate than median spending per FTE student in a number of other expenditure categories including academic support, student services and research. Our paper uses institutional level…

  2. TOPICAL REVIEW: Predictions for the rates of compact binary coalescences observable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abernathy, M.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adhikari, R.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amin, R. S.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Antonucci, F.; Aoudia, S.; Arain, M. A.; Araya, M.; Aronsson, M.; Arun, K. G.; Aso, Y.; Aston, S.; Astone, P.; Atkinson, D. E.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Baker, P.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S.; Barker, D.; Barnum, S.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barriga, P.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Bastarrika, M.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th S.; Behnke, B.; Beker, M. G.; Belczynski, K.; Benacquista, M.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Beveridge, N.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bigotta, S.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birindelli, S.; Biswas, R.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Bland, B.; Blom, M.; Blomberg, A.; Boccara, C.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Bondarescu, R.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Boyle, M.; Braccini, S.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Budzyński, R.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Burguet-Castell, J.; Burmeister, O.; Buskulic, D.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campagna, E.; Campsie, P.; Cannizzo, J.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chalkley, E.; Charlton, P.; Chassande Mottin, E.; Chelkowski, S.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Christensen, N.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, C. T. Y.; Clark, D.; Clark, J.; Clayton, J. H.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Colacino, C. N.; Colas, J.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Corda, C.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coulon, J. P.; Coward, D.; Coyne, D. C.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cruise, A. M.; Culter, R. M.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Danilishin, S. L.; Dannenberg, R.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dari, A.; Das, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Davier, M.; Davies, G.; Davis, A.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; del Prete, M.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Devanka, P.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Emilio, M. Di Paolo; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doomes, E. E.; Dorsher, S.; Douglas, E. S. D.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Dueck, J.; Dumas, J. C.; Eberle, T.; Edgar, M.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Engel, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, Y.; Farr, B. F.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Flaminio, R.; Flanigan, M.; Flasch, K.; Foley, S.; Forrest, C.; Forsi, E.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J. D.; Franc, J.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Friedrich, D.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garofoli, J. A.; Garufi, F.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gholami, I.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, C.; Goetz, E.; Goggin, L. M.; González, G.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Greverie, C.; Grosso, R.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hage, B.; Hall, P.; Hallam, J. M.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A.; Hewitson, M.; Hild, S.; Hirose, E.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E.; Hoyland, D.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Jaranowski, P.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, G.; Jones, R.; Ju, L.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kanner, J.; Katsavounidis, E.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, C.; Kim, H.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kopparapu, R.; Koranda, S.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Krause, T.; Kringel, V.; Krishnamurthy, S.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kullman, J.; Kumar, R.; Kwee, P.; Landry, M.; Lang, M.; Lantz, B.; Lastzka, N.; Lazzarini, A.; Leaci, P.; Leong, J.; Leonor, I.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Li, J.; Li, T. G. F.; Lin, H.; Lindquist, P. E.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lodhia, D.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lu, P.; Luan, J.; Lubiński, M.; Lucianetti, A.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Mackowski, J. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Mak, C.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIvor, G.; McKechan, D. J. A.; Meadors, G.; Mehmet, M.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Melissinos, A. C.; Mendell, G.; Menéndez, D. F.; Mercer, R. A.; Merill, L.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mino, Y.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohanty, S. D.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Moraru, D.; Moreau, J.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Morgia, A.; Morioka, T.; Mors, K.; Mosca, S.; Moscatelli, V.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; MowLowry, C.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Müller-Ebhardt, H.; Munch, J.; Murray, P. G.; Nash, T.; Nawrodt, R.; Nelson, J.; Neri, I.; Newton, G.; Nishizawa, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Ogin, G. H.; Oldenburg, R. G.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Page, A.; Pagliaroli, G.; Palladino, L.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Papa, M. A.; Pardi, S.; Pareja, M.; Parisi, M.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patel, P.; Pedraza, M.; Pekowsky, L.; Penn, S.; Peralta, C.; Perreca, A.; Persichetti, G.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pietka, M.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Pletsch, H. J.; Plissi, M. V.; Poggiani, R.; Postiglione, F.; Prato, M.; Predoi, V.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Raab, F. J.; Rabaste, O.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radke, T.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rankins, B.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Roberts, P.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, E. L.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Röver, C.; Rogstad, S.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sakata, S.; Sakosky, M.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sancho de la Jordana, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sannibale, V.; Santamaría, L.; Santostasi, G.; Saraf, S.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Sato, S.; Satterthwaite, M.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Searle, A. C.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sibley, A.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Singer, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, N. D.; Somiya, K.; Sorazu, B.; Speirits, F. C.; Stein, A. J.; Stein, L. C.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sung, M.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, J. R.; Taylor, R.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Thüring, A.; Titsler, C.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C.; Torrie, C. I.; Tournefier, E.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trias, M.; Trummer, J.; Tseng, K.; Ugolini, D.; Urbanek, K.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vaishnav, B.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vaulin, R.; Vavoulidis, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Veltkamp, C.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Villar, A.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Waldman, S. J.; Wallace, L.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Wei, P.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wen, S.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wilkinson, C.; Willems, P. A.; Williams, L.; Willke, B.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wiseman, A. G.; Woan, G.; Wooley, R.; Worden, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yamamoto, K.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yu, P. P.; Yvert, M.; Zanolin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

    2010-09-01

    We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the initial and advanced versions of the ground-based gravitational-wave detectors LIGO and Virgo. Astrophysical estimates for compact-binary coalescence rates depend on a number of assumptions and unknown model parameters and are still uncertain. The most confident among these estimates are the rate predictions for coalescing binary neutron stars which are based on extrapolations from observed binary pulsars in our galaxy. These yield a likely coalescence rate of 100 Myr-1 per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), although the rate could plausibly range from 1 Myr-1 MWEG-1 to 1000 Myr-1 MWEG-1 (Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 601 L179; Kalogera et al 2004 Astrophys. J. 614 L137 (erratum)). We convert coalescence rates into detection rates based on data from the LIGO S5 and Virgo VSR2 science runs and projected sensitivities for our advanced detectors. Using the detector sensitivities derived from these data, we find a likely detection rate of 0.02 per year for Initial LIGO-Virgo interferometers, with a plausible range between 2 × 10-4 and 0.2 per year. The likely binary neutron-star detection rate for the Advanced LIGO-Virgo network increases to 40 events per year, with a range between 0.4 and 400 per year.

  3. Influence of heart rate at rest for predicting the metabolic syndrome in older Chinese adults.

    PubMed

    O'Hartaigh, Bríain; Jiang, Chao Qiang; Bosch, Jos A; Zhang, Wei Sen; Cheng, Kar Keung; Lam, Tai Hing; Thomas, G Neil

    2013-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between seated resting heart rate and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) among older residents of Guangzhou, South China. A total of 30,519 older participants (≥50 years) from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study were stratified into quartiles based on seated resting heart rate. The associations between each quartile and the MetS were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. A total of 6,907 (22.8 %) individuals were diagnosed as having the MetS, which was significantly associated with increasing heart rate quartiles (P < 0.001). Participants in the uppermost quartile (mean resting heart rate 91 ± 8 beats/min) of this cardiovascular proxy had an almost twofold increased adjusted risk (odds ratio (95 % CI) = 1.94 (1.79, 2.11), P < 0.001) for the MetS, as compared to those in the lowest quartile (mean resting heart rate, 63 ± 4 beats/min). Heart rate, which is an inexpensive and simple clinical measure, was independently associated with the MetS in older Chinese adults. We hope these observations will spur further studies to examine the usefulness of resting heart rate as a means of risk stratification in such populations, for which targeted interventions should be implemented.

  4. Conventional heart rate variability analysis of ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings fails to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vybiral, T.; Glaeser, D. H.; Goldberger, A. L.; Rigney, D. R.; Hess, K. R.; Mietus, J.; Skinner, J. E.; Francis, M.; Pratt, C. M.

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this report was to study heart rate variability in Holter recordings of patients who experienced ventricular fibrillation during the recording. BACKGROUND. Decreased heart rate variability is recognized as a long-term predictor of overall and arrhythmic death after myocardial infarction. It was therefore postulated that heart rate variability would be lowest when measured immediately before ventricular fibrillation. METHODS. Conventional indexes of heart rate variability were calculated from Holter recordings of 24 patients with structural heart disease who had ventricular fibrillation during monitoring. The control group consisted of 19 patients with coronary artery disease, of comparable age and left ventricular ejection fraction, who had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia but no ventricular fibrillation. RESULTS. Heart rate variability did not differ between the two groups, and no consistent trends in heart rate variability were observed before ventricular fibrillation occurred. CONCLUSIONS. Although conventional heart rate variability is an independent long-term predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction, its clinical utility as a short-term predictor of life-threatening arrhythmias remains to be elucidated.

  5. The effect of an active arm action on heart rate and predicted VO(2max) during the Chester step test.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Dave; Abt, Grant; Barry, Tim

    2008-04-01

    This study examined whether the predictive outcomes of the Chester step test (CST) would be influenced by arm dynamics. Participants completed the CST on two separate occasions, once using active arms and once using passive arms. Results revealed that when compared to the passive arm protocol, the use of active arms led to a mean increase in heart rate of approximately 7 beats per minute across all of the incremental stages. However, this increase had little impact upon predicted VO(2max). Consequently, these results indicate that when performing the CST, participants are able to adopt an arm action that is compatible with personal preference.

  6. Further tests of a model-based scheme for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rickard, W. W.; Levison, W. H.

    1981-01-01

    A methodology was demonstrated for assessing longitudinal-axis handling qualities of transport aircraft on the basis of closed-loop criteria. Six longitudinal-axis approach configurations were studied covering a range of handling quality problems that included the presence of flexible aircraft modes. Using closed-loop performance requirements derived from task analyses and pilot interviews, predictions of performance/workload tradeoffs were obtained using an analytical pilot/vehicle model. A subsequent manned simulation study yielded objective performance measures and Cooper-Harper pilot ratings that were largely consistent with each other and with analytic predictions.

  7. PREDICTION OF VO2PEAK USING OMNI RATINGS OF PERCEIVED EXERTION FROM A SUBMAXIMAL CYCLE EXERCISE TEST

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Ryan J.; Goss, Fredric L.; Nagle-Stilley, Elizabeth F.; Gallagher, Michael; Schafer, Mark A.; Kim, Kevin H.; Robertson, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The primary aim of this study was to develop statistical models to predict peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak) using OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion measured during submaximal cycle ergometry. Men (mean ± standard error: 20.90 ± 0.42 yrs) and women (21.59 ± 0.49 yrs) participants (n = 81) completed a load-incremented maximal cycle ergometer exercise test. Simultaneous multiple linear regression was used to develop separate VO2peak statistical models using submaximal ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body, legs, and chest/breathing as predictor variables. VO2peak (L·min−1) predicted for men and women from ratings of perceived exertion for the overall body (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.03 ± 0.04), legs (3.02 ± 0.06; 2.04 ± 0.04) and chest/breathing (3.02 ± 0.05; 2.03 ± 0.03) were similar with measured VO2peak (3.02 ± 0.10; 2.03 ± 0.06, ps > .05). Statistical models based on submaximal OMNI Ratings of Perceived Exertion provide an easily administered and accurate method to predict VO2peak. PMID:25068750

  8. CFD Prediction for Spin Rate of Fixed Canards on a Spinning Projectile

    SciTech Connect

    Ji, X. L.; Jia, Ch. Y.; Jiang, T. Y.

    2011-09-28

    A computational study performed for spin rate of fixed cancards on a spinning projectile is presented in this paper. The cancards configurations provide challenges in terms of the determination of the aerodynamic forces and moments and the flow field changes which could have significant effect on the stability, performance, and corrected round accuracy. Advanced time accurate Navier-Stokes computations have been performed to compute the spin rate associated with the spinning motion of the cancards configurations at supersonic speed. The results show that roll-damping moment of cancards varies linearly with the spin rate at supersonic velocity.

  9. A lower baseline glomerular filtration rate predicts high mortality and newly cerebrovascular accidents in acute ischemic stroke patients

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Kai; Huang, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Qian; Yu, Zhipeng; Ding, Jianping; Song, Haiqing

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is gradually recognized as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and cardio-/cerebrovascular disease. This study aimed to examine the association of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and clinical outcomes at 3 months after the onset of ischemic stroke in a hospitalized Chinese population. Totally, 972 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled into this study. Modified of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations were used to calculate eGFR and define CKD. The site and degree of the stenosis were examined. Patients were followed-up for 3 months. Endpoint events included all-cause death and newly ischemic events. The multivariate logistic model was used to determine the association between renal dysfunction and patients’ outcomes. Of all patients, 130 patients (13.4%) had reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and 556 patients had a normal eGFR (≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2). A total of 694 patients suffered from cerebral artery stenosis, in which 293 patients only had intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS), 110 only with extracranial carotid atherosclerotic stenosis (ECAS), and 301 with both ICAS and ECAS. The patients with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 had a higher proportion of death and newly ischemic events compared with those with a relatively normal eGFR. Multivariate analysis revealed that a baseline eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 increased the risk of mortality by 3.089-fold and newly ischemic events by 4.067-fold. In further analysis, a reduced eGFR was associated with increased rates of mortality and newly events both in ICAS patients and ECAS patients. However, only an increased risk of newly events was found as the degree of renal function deteriorated in ICAS patients (odds ratio = 8.169, 95% confidence interval = 2.445–14.127). A low baseline eGFR predicted a high mortality and newly ischemic events at 3 months in ischemic stroke patients. A low baseline eGFR was also a strong independent

  10. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 – 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04–0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15–0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (−ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms2, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤−0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment. PMID:23110977

  11. Predicting emergency departments visit rates from septicemia in Taiwan using an age–period–cohort model, 1998 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Tzeng, I-Shiang; Liu, Su-Hsun; Chiou, Yu Ting; Huang, Chien-Hsiung; Lee, Cheng-Jung; Chien, Cheng-Yu; Hsu, Shou-Chien; Weng, Yi-Ming; Chen, Kuan-Fu; Chen, Jih-Chang

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to determine the age–period–cohort (APC) effects on the rate of infection-related emergency department (ED) visits from septicemia for predicting the same in recent periods. In our study, we investigated the longitudinal trends in septicemia-related visit rates. Using an APC model to decompose the septicemia visit rates into the effects of age, time period, and cohort, and examine whether their effects varied by sex. The septicemia ED visit rate was classified as the International Classification of Disease Code 038 by primary and secondary diagnosis between 1998 and 2012. In both males and females, the visit rate of septicemia showed an increase from 2003 through 2012. An increase in septicemia visit rate after 2003 was observed in all age groups. An APC model indicated a reversal increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 2003 to 2012 in both males and females. The age effect showed an increasing trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight oscillation from 1913 to 1988. With reference to the prediction of the logarithms of the age-specific 5-year visit rates, we observed that the younger cohorts exhibited a slightly increasing trend, as compared to the older cohorts. The period effect can explain the increase in septicemia visit rates, suggesting the role of screening for septicemia. Furthermore, it is well known that aging is a relevant risk variable for infectious diseases. The present study concludes that the aged population exhibited a strong increasing future trend for septicemia-related ED visit rates. PMID:27977595

  12. The Influence of Accretion Rate and Metallicity on Thermonuclear Bursts: Predictions from KEPLER Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lampe, Nathanael; Heger, Alexander; Galloway, Duncan K.

    2016-03-01

    Using the KEPLER hydrodynamics code, 464 models of thermonuclear X-ray bursters were performed across a range of accretion rates and compositions. We present the library of simulated burst profiles from this sample, and examine variations in the simulated light curve for different model conditions. We find that the recurrence time varies as a power law against accretion rate, and measure its slope while mixed H/He burning is occurring for a range of metallicities, finding the power law gradient to vary from η =1.1 to 1.24. We identify the accretion rates at which mixed H/He burning stops and a transition occurs to different burning regimes. We explore how varying the accretion rate and metallicity affects burst morphology in both the rise and tail.

  13. Fish community reassembly after a coral mass mortality: higher trophic groups are subject to increased rates of extinction.

    PubMed

    Alonso, David; Pinyol-Gallemí, Aleix; Alcoverro, Teresa; Arthur, Rohan

    2015-05-01

    Since Gleason and Clements, our understanding of community dynamics has been influenced by theories emphasising either dispersal or niche assembly as central to community structuring. Determining the relative importance of these processes in structuring real-world communities remains a challenge. We tracked reef fish community reassembly after a catastrophic coral mortality in a relatively unfished archipelago. We revisited the stochastic model underlying MacArthur and Wilson's Island Biogeography Theory, with a simple extension to account for trophic identity. Colonisation and extinction rates calculated from decadal presence-absence data based on (1) species neutrality, (2) trophic identity and (3) site-specificity were used to model post-disturbance reassembly, and compared with empirical observations. Results indicate that species neutrality holds within trophic guilds, and trophic identity significantly increases overall model performance. Strikingly, extinction rates increased clearly with trophic position, indicating that fish communities may be inherently susceptible to trophic downgrading even without targeted fishing of top predators.

  14. Effects of Averaging Mass on Predicted Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) Values

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-09-01

    lung, liver , muscle, cerebral spinal fluid, nerve spinal, heart) in relation to various frequencies and orientations. This parametric study...relatively low ratios between spatial peak SAR and whole body SAR average were found in heart, liver , lung outer and lung inner (between 3 and 7) (see...MASS ON PREDICTED SAR 38 Figure 19. Ratios between peak localized SAR and whole body SAR average for liver for various mass intervals (1g and 10 g

  15. Congener diversity, topographic heterogeneity and human-assisted dispersal predict spread rates of alien herpetofauna at a global scale.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuan; Li, Xianping; Liu, Zetian; Tingley, Reid; Kraus, Fred; Guo, Zhongwei; Li, Yiming

    2014-07-01

    Understanding the factors that determine rates of range expansion is not only crucial for developing risk assessment schemes and management strategies for invasive species, but also provides important insight into the ability of species to disperse in response to climate change. However, there is little knowledge on why some invasions spread faster than others at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we examine the effects of human activities, species traits and characteristics of the invaded range on spread rates using a global sample of alien reptile and amphibian introductions. We show that spread rates vary remarkably among invaded locations within a species, and differ across biogeographical realms. Spread rates are positively related to the richness of native congeneric species and human-assisted dispersal in the invaded range but are negatively correlated with topographic heterogeneity. Our findings highlight the importance of environmental characteristics and human-assisted dispersal in developing robust frameworks for predicting species' range shifts.

  16. Revised predictions of long-period ocean tidal effects on Earth's rotation rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dickman, S. R.; Nam, Young S.

    1995-01-01

    The rotational response of Earth to long-period tidal forces, embodied in a 'zonal response function,' can be expected to vary with frequency because of variable contributions by the oceans, mantle, and core. The zonal response function has been estimated from 9 years of International Radio Interferometric Surveying (IRIS) universal time (UT1) data and compared with theoretical predictions, using a spherical harmonic tide model to compute the oceans' dynamic response, at semiannual, monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunisolar tidal frequencies. Different amounts of mantle anelasticity have been considered for both the oceanic and soild earth responses; predictions have been made assuming axial core-mantle coupling which is either complete or absent. Additionally, an extensive recalibration of the ocean model's frictional parameters was performed using constraints derived in part from Space92 polar motion data; zonal response function predictions have also been made employing this recalibrated ocean tide model. Our results indicate that any amount of core coupling can be ruled out at a fortnightly period and probably at a 9-day period, but not at a monthly period. Our results also suggest that the mantle responds purely elastically at a 9-day period but may behave increasingly anelastically at longer periods. A simple dispersive rule is postulated for periods ranging up to the 14-month Chandler wobble period.

  17. Steep Gravel Bedload Rating Curves Obtained From Bedload Traps Shift Effective Discharge to Flows Much Higher Than "Bankfull"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunte, K.; Swingle, K. W.; Abt, S. R.; Cenderelli, D.

    2012-12-01

    Effective discharge (Qeff) is defined as the flow at which the product of flow frequency and bedload transport rates obtains its maximum. Qeff is often reported to correspond with bankfull flow (Qbf), where Qeff approximates the 1.5 year recurrence interval flow (Q1.5). Because it transports the majority of all bedload, Qeff is considered a design flow for stream restoration and flow management. This study investigates the relationship between Qeff and Q1.5 for gravel bedload in high elevation Rocky Mountain streams. Both the flow frequency distribution (FQ = a × Qbin-b) where Qbin is the flow class, and the bedload transport rating curve (QB = c × Qd) can be described by power functions. The product FQ × QB = (a × c × Q(-b + d)) is positive if d + -b >0, and negative if d + -b <0. FQ × QB can only attain a maximum (=Qeff) if either FQ or QB exhibit an inflection point. In snowmelt regimes, low flows prevail for much of the year, while high flows are limited to a few days, and extreme floods are rare. In log-log plotting scale, this distribution causes the longterm flow frequency function FQ to steepen in the vicinity of Q1.5. If the bedload rating curve exponent is small, e.g., = 3 as is typical of Helley-Smith bedload samples, d + -b shifts from >0 to <0, causing FQ × QB to peak, and Qeff to be around Q1.5. For measurements thought to be more representative of actual gravel transport obtained using bedload traps and similar devices, large rating curve exponents d of 6 - 16 are typical. In this case, d + -b remains >0, and FQ × QB reaches its maximum near the largest flow on record (Qeff,BT = Qmax). Expression of FQ by negative exponential functions FQ = k × e(Qbin×-m) smooths the product function FQ × QB that displays its maximum as a gentle hump rather than a sharp peak, but without drastically altering Qeff. However, a smooth function FQ × QB allows Qeff to react to small changes in rating curve exponents d. As d increases from <1 to >10, Qeff

  18. Dive behaviour impacts the ability of heart rate to predict oxygen consumption in Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) foraging at depth.

    PubMed

    Young, Beth L; Rosen, David A S; Hindle, Allyson G; Haulena, Martin; Trites, Andrew W

    2011-07-01

    The predictive relationship between heart rate (f(H)) and oxygen consumption (VO2) has been derived for several species of marine mammals swimming horizontally or diving in tanks to shallow depths. However, it is unclear how dive activity affects the f(H):VO2 relationship and whether the existing equations apply to animals diving to deeper depths. We investigated these questions by simultaneously measuring the f(H) and VO2 of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) under different activity states (surface resting or diving), types of dives (single dives or dive bouts), and depths (10 or 40 m). We examined the relationship over dives only and also over dive cycles (dive + surface interval). We found that f(H) could only predict VO2 over a complete single dive cycle or dive bout cycle (i.e. surface intervals had to be included). The predictive equation derived for sea lions resting on the surface did not differ from that for single dive cycles. However, the equation derived over dive bout cycles (multiple dives + surface intervals) differed from those for single dive cycles or surface resting, with similar f(H) for multiple dive bout equations yielding higher predicted VO2 than that for single dive bout cycles (or resting). The f(H):VO2 relationships were not significantly affected by dive duration, dive depth, water temperature or cumulative food consumed under the conditions tested. Ultimately, our results demonstrate that f(H) can be used to predict activity-specific metabolic rates of diving Steller sea lions, but only over complete dive cycles that include a post-dive surface recovery period.

  19. Toward a New Predictive Model of Student Retention in Higher Education: An Application of Classical Sociological Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kerby, Molly B.

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models designed to predict whether students will persist or not have been valuable tools for retention efforts relative to the creation of services in academic and student affairs. Some of the early models attempted to explain and measure factors in the "college dropout process." For example, in his seminal work, Tinto…

  20. Size evolution in microorganisms masks trade-offs predicted by the growth rate hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Gounand, Isabelle; Daufresne, Tanguy; Gravel, Dominique; Bouvier, Corinne; Bouvier, Thierry; Combe, Marine; Gougat-Barbera, Claire; Poly, Franck; Torres-Barceló, Clara; Mouquet, Nicolas

    2016-12-28

    Adaptation to local resource availability depends on responses in growth rate and nutrient acquisition. The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) suggests that growing fast should impair competitive abilities for phosphorus and nitrogen due to high demand for biosynthesis. However, in microorganisms, size influences both growth and uptake rates, which may mask trade-offs and instead generate a positive relationship between these traits (size hypothesis, SH). Here, we evolved a gradient of maximum growth rate (μmax) from a single bacterium ancestor to test the relationship among μmax, competitive ability for nutrients and cell size, while controlling for evolutionary history. We found a strong positive correlation between μmax and competitive ability for phosphorus, associated with a trade-off between μmax and cell size: strains selected for high μmax were smaller and better competitors for phosphorus. Our results strongly support the SH, while the trade-offs expected under GRH were not apparent. Beyond plasticity, unicellular populations can respond rapidly to selection pressure through joint evolution of their size and maximum growth rate. Our study stresses that physiological links between these traits tightly shape the evolution of competitive strategies.

  1. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: a high-risk prospective investigation.

    PubMed

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J; Mortensen, Erik L; Michelsen, Niels M; Ekstrom, Morten; Mednick, Sarnoff; Schiffman, Jason

    2013-12-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker of illness vulnerability and may also function as a chronic stressor potentially exacerbating risk for illness.

  2. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature.

    PubMed

    Fohlmeister, Jürgen F

    2015-06-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m(3) → m(4)). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation.

  3. Voltage gating by molecular subunits of Na+ and K+ ion channels: higher-dimensional cubic kinetics, rate constants, and temperature

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    The structural similarity between the primary molecules of voltage-gated Na and K channels (alpha subunits) and activation gating in the Hodgkin-Huxley model is brought into full agreement by increasing the model's sodium kinetics to fourth order (m3 → m4). Both structures then virtually imply activation gating by four independent subprocesses acting in parallel. The kinetics coalesce in four-dimensional (4D) cubic diagrams (16 states, 32 reversible transitions) that show the structure to be highly failure resistant against significant partial loss of gating function. Rate constants, as fitted in phase plot data of retinal ganglion cell excitation, reflect the molecular nature of the gating transitions. Additional dimensions (6D cubic diagrams) accommodate kinetically coupled sodium inactivation and gating processes associated with beta subunits. The gating transitions of coupled sodium inactivation appear to be thermodynamically irreversible; response to dielectric surface charges (capacitive displacement) provides a potential energy source for those transitions and yields highly energy-efficient excitation. A comparison of temperature responses of the squid giant axon (apparently Arrhenius) and mammalian channel gating yields kinetic Q10 = 2.2 for alpha unit gating, whose transitions are rate-limiting at mammalian temperatures; beta unit kinetic Q10 = 14 reproduces the observed non-Arrhenius deviation of mammalian gating at low temperatures; the Q10 of sodium inactivation gating matches the rate-limiting component of activation gating at all temperatures. The model kinetics reproduce the physiologically large frequency range for repetitive firing in ganglion cells and the physiologically observed strong temperature dependence of recovery from inactivation. PMID:25867741

  4. Negative affect predicts adults' ratings of the current, but not childhood, impact of adverse childhood events.

    PubMed

    LaNoue, Marianna; Graeber, David A; Helitzer, Deborah L; Fawcett, Jan

    2013-10-01

    Adverse childhood events (ACE's) have been empirically related to a wide range of negative health and mental health outcomes. However, not all individuals who experience ACE's follow a trajectory of poor outcomes, and not all individuals perceive the impact of ACE's as necessarily negative. The purpose of this study was to investigate positive and negative affect as predictors of adults' ratings of both the childhood and adult impact of their childhood adversity. Self-report data on ACE experiences, including number, severity, and 'impact' were collected from 158 community members recruited on the basis of having adverse childhood experiences. Results indicated that, regardless of event severity and number of different types of adverse events experienced, high levels of negative affect were the strongest predictor of whether the adult impact of the adverse childhood events was rated as negative. All individuals rated the childhood impact of events the same. Implications are discussed.

  5. Modeling and prediction of HIV in China: transmission rates structured by infection a